Lennar Corp (LEN.B) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Lennar's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections you may disconnect at this time. I will now turn the call over to Alexandra Lumpkin for the reading of the forward-looking statement.

歡迎來到 Lennar 的第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）正在錄製今天的會議。如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。我現在將把電話轉給亞歷山德拉·倫普金 (Alexandra Lumpkin)，讓她宣讀前瞻性聲明。

Thank you, and good morning. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results.

謝謝，早上好。今天的電話會議可能包括前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Lennar 的業務、財務狀況、經營業績、現金流、戰略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 在本次電話會議召開之日的估計，並不旨在對未來的實際結果提供任何保證。

Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項，因此這些陳述本身就存在風險和不確定性。許多因素可能會影響未來的結果，並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果存在重大差異。

These factors include those described in yesterday's press release and our SEC filings, including those under the caption Risk Factors contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC.

這些因素包括昨天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的因素，包括 Lennar 最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中風險因素標題下的那些因素。

Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

請注意，Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

I would now like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下你們的東道主，執行主席斯圖爾特·米勒先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Very good. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. This morning, I'm here in Miami and joined by Rick Beckwitt, our Co-CEO and Co-President; Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, our Controller and Vice President; and Bruce Gross is here, our CEO of Lennar Financial Services. Happy to have Bruce back in the seat; and of course, Alex, who you just heard from; Jon Jaffe, our Co-CEO and President, is on -- is at in California and on the line and will participate remotely.

很好。謝謝大家，早上好。感謝您加入我們。今天早上，我來到邁阿密，我們的聯席首席執行官兼聯席總裁里克·貝克維特 (Rick Beckwitt) 加入了我的行列；我們的首席財務官 Diane Bessette； David Collins，我們的財務總監兼副總裁； Bruce Gross 來了，他是 Lennar Financial Services 的首席執行官。很高興布魯斯回到座位上；當然還有 Alex，您剛剛聽過他的來信；我們的聯席首席執行官兼總裁 Jon Jaffe 正在加利福尼亞在線，並將遠程參與。

As usual, I'm going to give a macro overview and strategic overview of the company, albeit a little longer than usual. We've got some strategic matters that we want to cover. After my introductory remarks, Rick is going to walk through our markets as he did last time around. Jon is going to update supply chain, cycle time and construction costs and give a little overview on land as well. I think that Rick and Jon will both talk a little bit about land.

像往常一樣，我將對公司進行宏觀概述和戰略概述，儘管比平時稍長一些。我們有一些我們想要討論的戰略問題。在我的介紹性發言之後，里克將像上次那樣參觀我們的市場。喬恩將更新供應鏈、週期時間和建設成本，並簡要介紹一下土地情況。我認為 Rick 和 Jon 都會談一點土地問題。

As usual, Diane will give a detailed financial highlight, and we'll give some rough boundaries for the first quarter to assist in looking forward, thinking and modeling. And then we'll answer as many questions as we can. And as you, please limit yourselves to one question and one follow.

像往常一樣，Diane 將提供詳細的財務亮點，我們將給出第一季度的一些粗略界限，以幫助進行展望、思考和建模。然後我們會盡可能多地回答問題。作為您，請將自己限制在一個問題上，然後再問一個問題。

So let me go ahead and begin by saying that once again the Lennar team has turned in excellent results for the fourth quarter and year end 2022 which continue to enhance our positioning for evolving market conditions. Market conditions continue to deteriorate in the fourth quarter as the now well documented interest rate driven, sales slowdown and pricing correction intersected with the still stress supply chain, high labor and material costs and elongated cycle times to make for a very complicated landscape to bring the year 2022 to a close.

因此，讓我繼續說，Lennar 團隊在 2022 年第四季度和年底再次取得了優異的成績，這繼續加強了我們在不斷變化的市場條件下的定位。市場狀況在第四季度繼續惡化，因為現在有據可查的利率驅動、銷售放緩和定價調整與仍然緊張的供應鏈、高勞動力和材料成本以及延長的周期時間相交，導致一個非常複雜的局面，帶來2022 年即將結束。

The very sudden movement in interest rates experienced over the past 6 months have very quickly affected both affordability and consumer confidence, resulting in a very rapid change in market conditions and demand. Sales and sales prices are down materially across both the new and existing home markets and given commercial underwriting and lending criteria, new for rent properties are being curtailed as well. Our current view is that production of single-family and multifamily dwellings nationally will be down between 1/4 to 1/3 in 2023, exacerbating the national housing supply shortage.

過去 6 個月利率的突然變動很快影響了負擔能力和消費者信心，導致市場狀況和需求發生非常迅速的變化。新房和現房市場的銷售和銷售價格都大幅下降，並且考慮到商業承銷和貸款標準，新的出租物業也在減少。我們目前的觀點是，到 2023 年，全國單戶和多戶住宅的產量將下降 1/4 至 1/3，從而加劇全國住房供應短缺。

Numerically, that means that approximately 1.5 million homes produced over the past couple of years per year will drop to around 1 million homes produced. Now Rick is going to go through market review and market conditions across our platform in a few minutes. So stay tuned for that.

從數字上看，這意味著過去幾年每年生產的約 150 萬套房屋將下降到約 100 萬套。現在，Rick 將在幾分鐘內通過我們的平台進行市場審查和市場狀況。所以請繼續關注。

But even as demand has cooled very quickly, the overhang of a now correcting, although disrupted supply chain, stubbornly high labor and materials costs and production or cycle times that have grown by over 2 months have created an unusual wedge that the homebuilders have been left to navigate. John will give a lot more detail on that.

但是，即使需求迅速降溫，儘管供應鏈中斷，勞動力和材料成本居高不下，生產或週期時間已經增長了 2 個多月，但現在正在糾正的懸而未決的問題已經造成了一個不尋常的楔子，即房屋建築商已經離開導航。約翰將就此提供更多細節。

On a positive note, very limited new home inventory exists, limited existing home supply exist as existing homeowners hold on to extremely low mortgage rates and very limited multifamily production combines with the chronic housing production shortfall over the past decade and leaves the industry in the middle of what we believe will be a fairly short duration correction without an inventory overhang to resolve.

從積極的方面來看，由於現有房主堅持極低的抵押貸款利率和非常有限的多戶住宅生產，加上過去十年長期的住房生產短缺，使該行業處於中間狀態，因此新房庫存非常有限，現有房屋供應有限我們認為這將是一個持續時間相當短的調整，而無需解決庫存過剩問題。

Against this backdrop, in addition to the 2 hurricanes that swept through Florida, the homebuilding and financial services team at Lennar have focused and have executed on the strategies that we've detailed over the past quarters as we have very quickly and efficiently adjusted our business and business model.

在此背景下，除了席捲佛羅里達的 2 次颶風外，Lennar 的住宅建築和金融服務團隊還專注於並執行了我們在過去幾個季度詳述的戰略，因為我們已經非常快速有效地調整了我們的業務和商業模式。

We laid out that the Lennar strategy playbook over the past quarters, and those strategies, the successes and the misses are reflected in our first quarter and year-end results, and I'd like to give a brief overview.

我們制定了過去幾個季度的 Lennar 戰略手冊，這些戰略、成功和失敗都反映在我們的第一季度和年終業績中，我想簡要概述一下。

So first, as a first playbook strategy, we detailed that we're going to continue to sell homes and adjust pricing to market conditions and maintain reasonable volume. In fact, we relied on our proprietary dynamic pricing model developed by our inevitable Jeff Moses to guide -- to volume-based pricing in order to drive sales at market pricing so that we maintain the volume that maintains our starts and sales base, so they remain in sync and drive steady production.

因此，首先，作為第一個劇本策略，我們詳細說明我們將繼續出售房屋並根據市場情況調整定價並保持合理的銷量。事實上，我們依靠我們不可避免的傑夫摩西開發的專有動態定價模型來指導 - 基於數量的定價，以推動市場定價的銷售，以便我們維持維持我們的開始和銷售基礎的數量，所以他們保持同步並推動穩定生產。

The result of this program is that margin as opposed to volume becomes the so-called shock absorber and fluctuates up and down, like an accordion as market conditions, especially interest rates change. Accordingly, interest rate changes, especially downward potentially improved lagging margins.

該計劃的結果是，相對於交易量，保證金成為所謂的減震器，並且隨著市場條件（尤其是利率）的變化而上下波動，就像手風琴一樣。因此，利率變化，尤其是下行可能會改善滯後利潤率。

In the fourth quarter, we saw our margins adjust rather quickly, down some 270 basis points to 25.3% before impairments as we used price reductions plus incentives in the form of both closing cost payments and interest rate buy-downs to offset volatile interest rate and market shifts. We did this both to sell homes as well as to protect our backlog by adjusting pricing and incentives to ensure closings. While our cancellation rate of 26% is decidedly higher than the 12% last year, it has been falling from the peak of 28% reached in October, and we expect it to normalize below 20% in the near future.

在第四季度，我們看到我們的利潤率調整得相當快，減值前下降了約 270 個基點至 25.3%，因為我們使用降價和結算成本支付和利率回購形式的激勵措施來抵消波動的利率和市場變化。我們這樣做既是為了出售房屋，也是為了通過調整定價和激勵措施以確保關閉來保護我們的積壓訂單。雖然我們 26% 的取消率明顯高於去年的 12%，但它已經從 10 月份達到的 28% 的峰值下降，我們預計它在不久的將來會正常化到 20% 以下。

Also in the fourth quarter, we used our pricing strategy to -- in orderly fashion, maintain our volume. While our sales were still down some 15% year-over-year. That result has compared favorably to reported market conditions and enabled us to start over 68,000 homes in 2022, which is only a 1% reduction year-over-year and gives us visibility to potentially flat 2023 deliveries. While this is not intended to be a projection, it is within the broad boundaries of our look ahead.

同樣在第四季度，我們使用我們的定價策略 - 以有序的方式維持我們的銷量。雖然我們的銷售額仍同比下降約 15%。這一結果與報告的市場狀況相比是有利的，使我們能夠在 2022 年開始建造超過 68,000 套房屋，這僅比去年同期減少 1%，並讓我們看到 2023 年交付量可能持平。雖然這不是一個預測，但它在我們展望未來的廣泛範圍內。

We derive confidence in our ability to achieve sales pace at the best possible prices from our significant investment in digital marketing, which is more relevant than ever before. Our proprietary digits platform, which we built on a Microsoft backbone, provides digital marketing insights and analytics that guide us to better execution with appropriate pricing from our dynamic pricing model. Our digital marketing team under the guidance of Ori Klein is doing some very interesting, innovative and very credible work.

我們對數字營銷的重大投資對我們以盡可能最好的價格實現銷售速度的能力充滿信心，這比以往任何時候都更加相關。我們基於 Microsoft 主幹構建的專有數字平台提供數字營銷見解和分析，指導我們通過動態定價模型中的適當定價更好地執行。我們的數字營銷團隊在 Ori Klein 的指導下正在做一些非常有趣、創新且非常可靠的工作。

Our second playbook strategy was to work with our trade partners to rightsize our cost structure to current market conditions. On this item, let me say that Jon will cover this in great detail shortly. But Jon, together with Rick, is giving a master class on cost reconciliation across our platform to our production and our purchasing teams as well as to our trade partners. Make no mistake, Lennar led the way with reduction in margin while maintaining volume and increasing market share as the market has corrected.

我們的第二個策略是與我們的貿易夥伴合作，根據當前的市場條件調整我們的成本結構。關於這個項目，讓我說 Jon 很快就會詳細介紹。但 Jon 和 Rick 正在為我們的生產和採購團隊以及我們的貿易夥伴提供關於跨平台成本核對的大師班。毫無疑問，隨著市場調整，Lennar 率先降低了利潤率，同時保持了銷量並增加了市場份額。

We expect our trade partners to work side-by-side with us and follow suit as margins expanded in the best of times, they benefited and as margins have now contracted in the more difficult times, we are driving costs down as prices are reduced, and we expect participation as well. While there is no doubt a lag in those reductions coming through our -- as there is no doubt a lag in those reductions coming through our reported numbers, there will also be no doubt a significant reduction coming period. Cost reductions will improve lagging margins.

我們希望我們的貿易夥伴與我們並肩工作，並隨著利潤率在最好的時候擴大而效仿，他們從中受益，並且隨著利潤率在更困難的時期收縮，我們正在隨著價格的降低而降低成本，我們也期待參與。雖然毫無疑問，這些減少來自我們的——因為毫無疑問，這些減少來自我們報告的數字的滯後，但毫無疑問，未來一段時間也會有顯著的減少。成本降低將提高滯後利潤率。

Our third playbook articulated strategy was to sharpen our attention on land and land acquisitions. While Rick and Jon will give additional detail and our land reviews -- on our land reviews, this has been a specific, concentrated focus by all 3 of us, myself, Rick and Jon, across the platforms working, connected and together to reconsider every land deal in our pipeline and minimize exposure to falling land values.

我們的第三個劇本闡明的戰略是加強我們對土地和土地收購的關注。雖然 Rick 和 Jon 將提供更多細節和我們的土地審查——關於我們的土地審查，這是我們所有人（我自己、Rick 和 Jon）在跨平台工作、聯繫並共同重新考慮每個在我們的管道中進行土地交易，並儘量減少土地價值下跌的風險。

In that regard, I dare say we have stopped the bleeding early. We have reconsidered every land deal in our pipeline, we have reconsidered land development dollars being spent. We have walked from deposits or renegotiated terms and price and we have been relentless in focusing on protecting cash and only purchasing the next strong margin at today's pricing. New land purchases will improve lagging margins.

在這方面，我敢說我們早早止血了。我們已經重新考慮了我們管道中的每一筆土地交易，我們已經重新考慮了正在花費的土地開發資金。我們已經放棄存款或重新談判條款和價格，我們一直堅持不懈地專注於保護現金，只以今天的價格購買下一個強勁的保證金。新的土地購買將改善落後的利潤率。

Fortunately, we are well positioned with well-structured contracts and shorter-term deal structures that enable our capital allocation to be micromanaged constructively. We started the quarter with $2.5 billion of expected land closings. We ended the quarter with 3/4 of that spend, either walked from, renegotiated to produce a responsible margin or pushed for reconsideration at a later time.

幸運的是，我們擁有結構良好的合同和短期交易結構，使我們的資本配置能夠進行建設性的微觀管理。我們在本季度開始時預計關閉土地 25 億美元。我們以該支出的 3/4 結束了本季度，要么放棄，要么重新談判以產生負責任的利潤，要么推動在以後重新考慮。

As with our trade partners, our land partners or sellers understand that we're maintaining volume and increasing market share while taking the first hit to our margin. They will need to work together and participate or will need to move on.

與我們的貿易夥伴一樣，我們的土地合作夥伴或賣家明白，我們在保持銷量和增加市場份額的同時，首先對我們的利潤率造成了衝擊。他們將需要共同努力並參與，否則將需要繼續前進。

Our fourth playbook strategy was to manage our operating costs or our SG&A so that even at lower gross margin, we will drive a strong net margin. In as much as we have been driving our SG&A down over the past years quarter-by-quarter to new record lows and many of those changes, although not all, are hardwired into permanent efficiencies in operations. Nevertheless, as average sales prices come down, the percentages won't hold without corresponding additional cut. We also know that in more difficult times, there will be an upward pressure on some of our sales and marketing costs in order to drive and find purchasers and drive new sales.

我們的第四個劇本策略是管理我們的運營成本或我們的 SG&A，這樣即使在較低的毛利率下，我們也將推動強勁的淨利潤率。在過去幾年中，我們一直在推動我們的 SG&A 逐季下降至歷史新低，其中許多變化（儘管不是全部）都與運營的永久效率息息相關。然而，隨著平均銷售價格的下降，如果不進行相應的額外削減，這些百分比將無法保持。我們也知道，在更困難的時期，我們的部分銷售和營銷成本將面臨上漲壓力，以推動和尋找購買者並推動新的銷售。

In our fourth quarter, we were able to maintain our 5.8% SG&A at the operating level and we believe if we continue to drive volume, we'll be able to contain increases and manage to a very attractive cost level. Each of our operating teams as well as our corporate teams are looking for additional efficiencies, especially now that COVID is behind us and teams are reconvening in-person in our offices and finding those inefficiencies face-to-face and together.

在我們的第四季度，我們能夠將 5.8% 的 SG&A 維持在運營水平，我們相信如果我們繼續推動銷量，我們將能夠控制增長並管理到一個非常有吸引力的成本水平。我們的每個運營團隊以及我們的公司團隊都在尋求更高的效率，尤其是現在 COVID 已經過去，團隊正在我們的辦公室親自重新開會，並面對面地一起尋找那些低效率的地方。

Our fifth playbook strategy was to maintain tight inventory control. This is exactly what drives the cash flow we've seen, and we're focused on this part of our business every day. Both land and home inventory control is the mission control of our overall business. And in our fourth quarter numbers, you can see, in our 14.4% debt-to-total capitalization and our $4.6 billion cash position that our inventory is being carefully managed.

我們的第五個策略是保持嚴格的庫存控制。這正是推動我們所看到的現金流的原因，我們每天都專注於我們業務的這一部分。土地和家庭庫存控制是我們整體業務的任務控制。在我們第四季度的數據中，您可以看到，在我們 14.4% 的債務佔總資本和我們 46 億美元的現金頭寸中，我們的庫存得到了謹慎的管理。

Now we know that the questions have been raised by the press and others about a mysterious 5,000 homes being sold to single-family for rent purchases at deep discount because of dire market conditions. The fact is that we, like other builders, provide a take of homes available for sale to the single-family for rent buyers so they are aware of what is available in the ordinary course of our business, and we've been doing that over the past many quarters. That might -- that take might have -- had completed homes in homes that are 1 to 4 months out from completion.

現在我們知道，媒體和其他人提出的問題是，由於嚴峻的市場條件，神秘的 5,000 套房屋以極低的折扣價出售給單戶家庭用於出租購買。事實上，我們和其他建築商一樣，為租房者提供可供出售給單戶家庭的房屋，這樣他們就知道在我們的日常業務過程中可以買到什麼，我們一直在這樣做過去的許多季度。那可能——那可能已經——在距離完工 1 到 4 個月的房屋中完成了房屋。

Over the course of the past year, and these are the facts, over the course of the past year, we have sold approximately 7% of our homes to single-family for rent purchasers, including Quarterra. That percentage is approximately the same range quarter-by-quarter. And as we look ahead to 2023, we think the percentage will be roughly the same or less. Net margins on those homes are approximately the same as homes sold to primary buyers, and there is no unusual discounting or advantage.

在過去的一年裡，這些都是事實，在過去的一年裡，我們將大約 7% 的房屋出售給了單戶住宅，供租房者購買，其中包括 Quarterra。該百分比與每個季度的範圍大致相同。展望 2023 年，我們認為該百分比將大致相同或更低。這些房屋的淨利潤與出售給主要買家的房屋大致相同，並且沒有不尋常的折扣或優勢。

In our operating world, our focus is not on fire sale to manage inventory. Instead, it is all -- it all starts with the starts, sales and closings management of our business. These elements of the business are managed through and every other day management meeting where numbers are reviewed at the regional and divisional levels by the entire management team. Starts, sales and closings are maintained in a controlled balance with the end results of volume that defines expectations. This is the most carefully reviewed and managed part of our business and enables us to maintain an extremely low inventory of completed, not sold homes, which has consistently been at or under 1 home per community for the past years. And right now, we have approximately 900 unsold, completed homes.

在我們的運營世界中，我們的重點不是通過甩賣來管理庫存。相反，這一切——一切都始於我們業務的啟動、銷售和關閉管理。這些業務要素通過每隔一天的管理會議進行管理，整個管理團隊在區域和部門級別審查數字。啟動、銷售和關閉與定義預期的最終數量結果保持在受控平衡中。這是我們業務中審查和管理最仔細的部分，使我們能夠保持極低的已完工但未售出房屋的庫存，過去幾年每個社區的庫存一直處於或低於 1 套。現在，我們有大約 900 套未售出的已完工房屋。

Currently, land inventory is managed equally carefully. From the corporate office, tight oversight is maintained on the land and land development spend. Diane oversees every dollar spent on land acquisitions and development dollars and maintains accountability relative to years of land owned versus control and years of land owned overall. If we aren't hitting targets, we aren't spending money. Like with home, there are no fire sales, just, careful day-to-day management.

目前，土地庫存的管理同樣謹慎。公司辦公室對土地和土地開發支出進行嚴格監督。黛安監督在土地收購和開發上花費的每一美元，並保持相對於土地擁有年數與控制年數以及總體土地擁有年數的問責制。如果我們沒有達到目標，我們就不會花錢。就像家裡一樣，沒有甩賣，只有仔細的日常管理。

We're aware that inventory has grown through the year because of expanded cycle time due to the supply chain disruption. We also know that this inefficiency will correct over the next few quarters and will turn approximately $150 billion of inventory into additional cash and will provide the cash to pay down debt due in 2024. That is on the radar.

我們知道，由於供應鏈中斷導致周期時間延長，庫存全年都在增長。我們還知道，這種低效率將在接下來的幾個季度得到糾正，並將把大約 1500 億美元的庫存轉化為額外的現金，並將提供現金來償還 2024 年到期的債務。這是值得關注的。

Additionally, a pause on growth this year, will reduce inventory and generate additional cash over the next year as well. Because of the tight control of land and completed home inventory, our cash flow has grown, pushing our balance sheet to the point where our net debt to total capital is actually negative at this point. That makes Diane happy.

此外，今年暫停增長將減少庫存並在明年產生額外現金。由於對土地和已完工房屋庫存的嚴格控制，我們的現金流量增加了，將我們的資產負債表推到了我們的淨債務佔總資本的比例實際上為負數的地步。這讓黛安很開心。

The sixth playbook strategy was to continue to focus on cash flow, bottom line in order to protect and enhance our already extraordinary balance sheet. If we reflect on our fourth quarter results, it is mission accomplished, and we are still just getting started. If we continue to execute our playbook strategies, we will continue to drive strong cash flow and even through bottom line -- and even through bottom line profitability -- and even though bottom line profitability will be compressed year-over-year as prices and margins are impacted in a correcting market.

第六個劇本戰略是繼續關注現金流和底線，以保護和增強我們已經非常出色的資產負債表。如果我們回顧一下第四季度的業績，那就是使命已完成，而我們才剛剛起步。如果我們繼續執行我們的策略，我們將繼續推動強勁的現金流，甚至通過底線 - 甚至通過底線盈利能力 - 儘管由於價格和利潤率，底線盈利能力將逐年壓縮在調整市場中受到影響。

Our balance sheet and cash position will continue to improve. This improvement enables the flexibility to be opportunistic as market conditions stabilize as well as opportunistic in repurchasing both stock and debt. We have tremendous optionality.

我們的資產負債表和現金狀況將繼續改善。這種改進使靈活性成為機會主義的市場條件穩定以及回購股票和債務的機會主義。我們有巨大的選擇權。

Now the final playbook strategy is the one where we must report a miss. That, of course, being the spin of Quarterra by year-end. In spite of our best efforts, in spite of my best efforts, the current market conditions are simply not favorable to our commercial asset manager spin on the year-end time line. Not to be cliché, you just can't and don't want to fight the take.

現在最終的劇本策略是我們必須報告未命中的策略。當然，那是年底前 Quarterra 的轉折點。儘管我們盡了最大努力，儘管我盡了最大努力，但當前的市場狀況根本不利於我們的商業資產經理在年終時間表上的旋轉。不是陳詞濫調，你只是不能也不想反抗。

We believe that we have a very high-end public company waiting and almost ready to enter the public arena, but we're going to postpone for the time being and wait for the right timing, Quarterra deserves exactly that launch. While I remain confident and enthusiastic that Quarterra will be spun and Lennar will become a pure-play homebuilder as promised, it will not happen by year-end, and I'm not prepared to pause at another date, given current market uncertainties. So please be patient.

我們相信我們有一家非常高端的上市公司在等待並且幾乎準備好進入公眾舞台，但我們暫時推遲並等待合適的時機，Quarterra 值得推出。儘管我對 Quarterra 將被拆分以及 Lennar 將按照承諾成為一家純粹的住宅建築商仍然充滿信心和熱情，但這不會在年底前發生，而且鑑於當前市場的不確定性，我不准備在另一個日期暫停。所以請耐心等待。

So at the end of the day, if you're keeping score and are considering success in difficult market conditions, I believe that we, from the Lennar Homebuilding team to the Lennar Financial Services team to the Quarterra team has had a truly remarkable fourth quarter and year-end 2022. In extraordinarily difficult market conditions, we focused on strategy, and we executed with precision. We ended the year with the highest revenues, the highest profit, the highest cash flow, the best balance sheet and the highest liquidity in Lennar's history.

因此，歸根結底，如果您要保持得分並考慮在困難的市場條件下取得成功，我相信我們，從 Lennar Homebuilding 團隊到 Lennar Financial Services 團隊再到 Quarterra 團隊，都取得了真正非凡的第四季度到2022年底。在異常困難的市場環境下，我們專注戰略，精準執行。我們以 Lennar 歷史上最高的收入、最高利潤、最高現金流、最佳資產負債表和最高流動性結束了這一年。

We have a plan of execution to move into the uncertainties of 2023 with a focus on maintaining volume, maximizing margin, managing inventories, driving cash flow, managing land and land spend, and further enhancing our balance sheet in spite of challenging market conditions. Accordingly, we are guiding our first quarter closings to between 12,000 and 13,500 homes with a gross margin of approximately -- [21%], which we believe will be the lowest gross margin for the year.

我們有一個執行計劃，以應對 2023 年的不確定性，重點是保持銷量、最大化利潤率、管理庫存、推動現金流、管理土地和土地支出，以及在充滿挑戰的市場條件下進一步改善我們的資產負債表。因此，我們將第一季度的成交量指導為 12,000 至 13,500 套房屋，毛利率約為 - [21%]，我們認為這將是今年的最低毛利率。

Additionally, we're targeting delivery volume to be flattish for the full year as we drive volume and pick up market share and build margin through reconciliation of construction costs and land costs and adjustments to product efficiency while carefully managing SG&A. We are prepared, once again, to look at adversity square in the eye and stick to our strategies and pull out a big win. Simply put, that's what we expect of ourselves.

此外，我們的目標是全年交付量持平，因為我們通過協調建築成本和土地成本以及調整產品效率，同時謹慎管理 SG&A 來推動產量並獲得市場份額並建立利潤率。我們再次做好準備，正視逆境，堅持我們的策略，大獲全勝。簡而言之，這就是我們對自己的期望。

As a conclusion or an epilogue, let me add that we've come to an end of another year, and we have a truly wonderful leader who will be retiring after 27 years of service. Jeff Roos is one of our regional presidents, who is overseeing many of our Western divisions. Jeff has been an absolute warrior of Lennar over these past decades. But as with all great leaders, he leaves us with ample, handpicked talent to fill the void.

作為結論或結語，讓我補充一點，我們已經結束了又一年，我們有一位真正出色的領導者，他將在服務 27 年後退休。傑夫·魯斯 (Jeff Roos) 是我們的地區總裁之一，負責監督我們的許多西部部門。在過去的幾十年裡，Jeff 一直是 Lennar 的堅定支持者。但與所有偉大的領導者一樣，他給我們留下了豐富的、精心挑選的人才來填補空白。

In fact, his people will be even better than he has been. He wants it that way. While I have a somewhat heavy heart, I feel a great sense of pride to have worked so many years with such a talented partner. Many of you on this call don't know Jeff Roos, and he liked it that way. Jeff is the very essence of Lennar. He has a fly engine under the hood, never the shiny paint job. Extraordinary on the field, always a leader in execution and always willing to learn something new. You know they say that you can't teach an old dog new tricks, well, Jeff was always the old dog that taught us all new tricks.

事實上，他的人民會比他以前更好。他想要那樣。雖然我的心情有些沉重，但與這樣一位才華橫溢的合作夥伴一起工作了這麼多年，我感到非常自豪。在座的許多人都不認識 Jeff Roos，但他喜歡這樣。 Jeff 是 Lennar 的核心人物。他的引擎蓋下有一個飛行引擎，從來沒有閃亮的油漆工作。在球場上非凡，始終是執行力的領導者，並且總是願意學習新事物。你知道他們說你不能教老狗新把戲，好吧，傑夫一直是教我們所有新把戲的老狗。

Off the field, Jeff is even better. He has been ever focused on making the world a better place through HomeAid or diaper drives or anything that works for community. He never stops caring, never stops driving, and you can't help but love everything that he stands for.

在場外，傑夫更加出色。他一直專注於通過 HomeAid 或尿布驅動器或任何對社區有用的東西讓世界變得更美好。他從不停止關心，從不停止駕駛，你會情不自禁地愛上他所代表的一切。

So with that said, Jeff is a shining example of all that drives us here at Lennar to be better and to reach higher. And it is Jeff and people just like him that make it a certainty that Lennar will continue to succeed.

因此，話雖如此，Jeff 是所有驅使我們在 Lennar 變得更好並達到更高水平的光輝榜樣。正是傑夫和像他一樣的人讓 Lennar 確信 Lennar 將繼續取得成功。

So with that, let me turn over to Rick.

因此，讓我轉向里克。

Thanks, Stuart. As you can tell from Stuart's opening comments, the overall housing market has been reacting to a significant increase in mortgage rates, which has impacted affordability and home buyer confidence. While we continue to have many strong markets in our more challenging areas, we've had to adjust base sales prices, increased incentives and provide mortgage rate buydowns to maintain or regain sales momentum.

謝謝，斯圖爾特。從斯圖爾特的開場白中可以看出，整個房地產市場一直在對抵押貸款利率的大幅上漲做出反應，這影響了負擔能力和購房者的信心。雖然我們在更具挑戰性的領域繼續擁有許多強勁的市場，但我們不得不調整基本銷售價格、增加激勵措施並提供抵押貸款利率回購，以維持或恢復銷售勢頭。

Our sales strategy -- our sales strategy has been to find the market clearing price for each of our homes on a community-by-community basis as quickly as possible and price our loans accordingly.

我們的銷售策略——我們的銷售策略一直是在逐個社區的基礎上盡快找到我們每個房屋的市場清算價格，並相應地為我們的貸款定價。

In many cases, we're solving to a monthly payments and not to a sales price. This requires a detailed understanding of community and product-specific pricing, financing programs, traffic trends, inventory levels and buyer sentiment. During the fourth quarter, our new sales orders declined 15% from the prior year on a 4% lower year-over-year community count. Our year-end community count was lower than we projected at the beginning of the year, as we walked away and renegotiated on many communities. Jon will walk you through this as he discusses our land strategy.

在許多情況下，我們解決的是每月付款而不是銷售價格。這需要詳細了解社區和特定產品的定價、融資計劃、流量趨勢、庫存水平和買家情緒。在第四季度，我們的新銷售訂單比上一年下降了 15%，社區數量同比下降了 4%。我們年終的社區數量低於我們年初的預期，因為我們離開並重新談判了許多社區。喬恩將在討論我們的土地戰略時向您介紹這一點。

While our cancellation rate and sales incentives increased sequentially from the third quarter, our sales orders and sales pace per community was relatively flat throughout the fourth quarter as we successfully executed our pricing strategy in most of our markets. To maintain and regain sales momentum, our fourth quarter new sales order price declined 9.5% sequentially from our third quarter with mix accounting for 250 basis points of the decline and base price reductions and incentives accounting for 200 basis points and 500 basis points, respectively.

雖然我們的取消率和銷售激勵措施從第三季度開始依次增加，但由於我們在大多數市場成功執行了定價策略，因此整個第四季度我們的銷售訂單和每個社區的銷售速度相對平穩。為了保持和恢復銷售勢頭，我們第四季度的新銷售訂單價格比第三季度下降了 9.5%，下降幅度為 250 個基點，底價下調和激勵措施分別下降了 200 個基點和 500 個基點。

The combination of adjusted pricing and rate buy-downs have created a more stabilized environment. As we cleared out or closed many of our older contracts in our backlog, our backlog has reset to these new prices, admittedly at lower margins, and we're seeing more stability in a trend towards lower cancellation rates. To this point, our cancellation rate peaked in October, declined significantly in November, and we've seen a continued reduction thus far in December.

調整後的定價和利率回購相結合，創造了一個更加穩定的環境。當我們清理或關閉積壓訂單中的許多舊合同時，我們的積壓訂單已重置為這些新價格，誠然利潤率較低，而且我們看到取消率下降的趨勢更加穩定。到目前為止，我們的取消率在 10 月份達到頂峰，在 11 月份顯著下降，並且我們在 12 月份看到了持續下降。

We fundamentally believe that this price to market strategy reflects our balance sheet for its focus where we can maintain starts in sales, generate cash flow and keep our homebuilding machine going.

我們從根本上認為，這種市價策略反映了我們的資產負債表，我們可以在其中保持銷售開始、產生現金流並保持我們的房屋建築機器運轉。

To this end, as Jon will discuss, by maintaining our start space, we've been able to get cost reductions from our trade partners and significantly increased our market share as many of our competitors have either stopped or slowed start altogether.

為此，正如喬恩將討論的那樣，通過保持我們的起步空間，我們已經能夠從我們的貿易夥伴那裡獲得成本降低並顯著增加我們的市場份額，因為我們的許多競爭對手已經停止或完全放慢了起步。

I'd like to now give you an update on our markets across the country. They really fall into 3 categories: one, markets that are performing well; two, markets where we've adjusted pricing and incentives found the market price and have successfully regained sales momentum; and three, markets that may require some additional pricing adjustments to regain our targeted absorption pace.

我現在想向您介紹我們全國市場的最新情況。它們實際上分為三類：一，表現良好的市場；二是我們調整定價和激勵措施的市場找到了市場價格並成功恢復了銷售勢頭；第三，可能需要一些額外的定價調整才能恢復我們的目標吸收速度的市場。

During the fourth quarter, and so far in December, we had 8 markets that are performing well. These include Southwest Florida, Southeast Florida, Tampa, Palm Atlantic, New Jersey, Charlotte, Indianapolis and San Diego. These markets are benefiting from extremely low inventory, and many are benefiting from strong employment and strong local economies. While these markets continue to be strong, we've had to offer mortgage buydown programs and normalized incentives.

在第四季度和 12 月到目前為止，我們有 8 個市場表現良好。其中包括佛羅里達州西南部、佛羅里達州東南部、坦帕、大西洋棕櫚島、新澤西州、夏洛特、印第安納波利斯和聖地亞哥。這些市場受益於極低的庫存，許多市場受益於強勁的就業和強勁的當地經濟。雖然這些市場繼續強勁，但我們不得不提供抵押貸款回購計劃和正常化的激勵措施。

Our Category 2 markets, which reflect markets where we've made more significant adjustments and have successfully regained sales momentum include 23 markets. These include Jacksonville, Ocala, Atlanta, Coastal Carolinas, Raleigh, Virginia, Maryland, the Philadelphia metro area, Chicago, Minnesota, Nashville, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Colorado, Tucson, Las Vegas, California Coastal, the Inland Empire, the Bay Area, the Central Valley, Sacramento, Seattle and Boise. While inventory is limited in each of these markets, we've had to offer more aggressive financing, base price reductions, and/or increased incentives to regain sales momentum.

我們的第 2 類市場反映了我們做出更重大調整併成功恢復銷售勢頭的市場，包括 23 個市場。其中包括傑克遜維爾、奧卡拉、亞特蘭大、卡羅萊納州沿海、羅利、弗吉尼亞、馬里蘭、費城都會區、芝加哥、明尼蘇達、納什維爾、達拉斯、休斯頓、聖安東尼奧、科羅拉多、圖森、拉斯維加斯、加利福尼亞沿海、內陸帝國、灣區、中央山谷、薩克拉門托、西雅圖和博伊西。雖然每個市場的庫存都有限，但我們不得不提供更積極的融資、降低底價和/或增加激勵措施以重獲銷售勢頭。

The size in adjustments -- the size of the adjustments is varied on a community-by-community basis and has often been limited to specific homes each week. In some cases, to avoid cancellations, we've had to adjust pricing on our homes in backlog. We're being very proactive with our pricing and not reactive. This has allowed us to sell homes and avoid building up finished inventory. We're outselling the competition, and as I said, increasing our market share.

調整的規模——調整的規模因社區而異，通常每週僅限於特定家庭。在某些情況下，為了避免取消，我們不得不調整積壓房屋的價格。我們在定價方面非常主動，而不是被動。這使我們能夠出售房屋並避免增加成品庫存。我們的銷量超過了競爭對手，而且正如我所說，我們的市場份額也在增加。

Our Category 3 markets, which reflect a more significant softening in correction include 8 markets. These include Orlando, Pensacola, Northern Alabama, Austin, Phoenix, Utah, Reno and Portland. While the driver of the individual dynamics of these markets vary somewhat. Traffic has slowed, buyers are taking more time to purchase and many needed to be convinced that now is the time to buy. There is a fear that prices haven't hit bottom, which has led to elevated cancellations.

我們的第 3 類市場包括 8 個市場，這些市場反映了修正中更為顯著的疲軟。其中包括奧蘭多、彭薩科拉、北阿拉巴馬州、奧斯汀、菲尼克斯、猶他州、里諾和波特蘭。雖然這些市場的個體動態驅動因素有所不同。交通放緩，買家需要更多時間購買，許多人需要被說服，現在是購買的時候了。人們擔心價格還沒有觸底，這導致取消的人數增加。

In these markets, we're focusing on establishing pricing that generates new gross sales to offset the cancellations, and we have achieved that. This is required to work with our backlog to prevent cancellations. It's also required a mix of base price adjustments, sales incentives and mortgage buy-down programs. While we've made progress in each of these areas, we still need to make some adjustments going forward. It's not all one size fits -- one-size-fits-all solution. I'm confident, however, that we're making progress in each of these areas, and we're very fortunate to have limited, completed, unsold inventory, so we should be able to get these markets back on track in the first quarter.

在這些市場中，我們專注於確定產生新總銷售額的定價以抵消取消訂單，我們已經實現了這一目標。這是處理我們的積壓工作以防止取消所必需的。它還需要結合基本價格調整、銷售激勵和抵押貸款回購計劃。雖然我們在每個領域都取得了進展，但我們仍需要做出一些調整。並不是所有的方法都適合——一種適合所有人的解決方案。然而，我相信我們在這些領域都取得了進展，我們很幸運擁有有限的、已完成的、未售出的庫存，所以我們應該能夠在第一季度讓這些市場重回正軌.

I hope this gives you a better picture of our markets across the country and what we're doing to keep our sales activity going. The markets are very fluid, and we're making proactive, strategic decisions and adjustments every day. We are committed as a management team to address any future market changes. And as we said in the past, we're going to keep our homebuilding machine going and maintain our starts and price our homes to market. This is our balance sheet's first focus. And now I'd like to turn it over to Jon.

我希望這能讓您更好地了解我們在全國的市場以及我們為保持銷售活動所做的工作。市場變化無常，我們每天都在做出積極主動的戰略決策和調整。作為一個管理團隊，我們致力於應對未來的任何市場變化。正如我們過去所說，我們將讓我們的房屋建築機器繼續運轉並維持我們的開工並為我們的房屋定價。這是我們資產負債表的第一個重點。現在我想把它交給喬恩。

Thank you, Rick. Our well-executed strategy of pricing to market to maintain sales volume, as Stuart and Rick have detailed, set us up for the next part of our game plan, our construction strategies.

謝謝你，里克。正如 Stuart 和 Rick 所詳述的那樣，我們執行良好的市場定價策略以維持銷量，為我們遊戲計劃的下一部分，即我們的建設策略做好了準備。

Simply put, by continuing to sell homes and generate cash flow, we will keep starting homes. Our construction playbook has 3 primary areas of focus: lowering construction costs; reducing cycle time; and achieving even flow production. Properly executed, these strategies improved both gross and net margins, allowing us to profitably continue the cycle of finding the market to sell homes. Let me address each area. Reductions in construction costs have historically lagged the change in market conditions.

簡而言之，通過繼續出售房屋並產生現金流，我們將繼續建造房屋。我們的施工手冊有 3 個主要重點領域：降低施工成本；縮短週期時間；實現均勻流水生產。如果執行得當，這些策略提高了毛利率和淨利率，使我們能夠繼續尋找市場出售房屋的周期，並從中獲利。讓我談談每個領域。建築成本的降低在歷史上一直滯後於市場條件的變化。

While that is true this time, what is different is the speed of change in the market conditions has caused a sharp reduction in industry-wide starts thus speeding up the availability of labor and materials for Lennar. This is very quickly turning the shortages of the last 2 years into excesses. Taking a look back at our fourth quarter, construction costs continue to increase as we guided on our last earnings call. Increases in both materials and labor resulted in a total direct construction cost increase of 6% and 16% sequentially and year-over-year, respectively. Moving forward, our process is a 3-pronged approach of first, working with our trade partners to reduce the cost of labor materials; second, evaluating all specifications in the home; and third, an intense value engineering review.

雖然這一次確實如此，但不同的是市場條件的變化速度導致全行業開工率急劇下降，從而加快了 Lennar 的勞動力和材料供應。這很快將過去兩年的短缺變成了過剩。回顧我們的第四季度，建築成本繼續增加，正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所指引的那樣。材料和勞動力的增加導致直接建築總成本環比和同比分別增長 6% 和 16%。展望未來，我們的流程是三管齊下的方法：首先，與我們的貿易夥伴合作，降低勞動力材料的成本；第二，評估家中的所有規格；第三，深入的價值工程審查。

We have very strong relationships with our trade partners. We have demonstrated to them that we have taken the first step by lowering sales prices to drive sales, and they understand this and understand the dynamic of labor availability as overall starts slow, and they are working closely with us to lower their prices.

我們與我們的貿易夥伴有著非常牢固的關係。我們已經向他們證明，我們已經邁出了第一步，通過降低銷售價格來推動銷售，他們理解這一點，也了解勞動力可用性的動態，因為整體開工緩慢，他們正在與我們密切合作以降低他們的價格。

Since the beginning of our third quarter, we have reduced contracted costs by approximately $14,000 per home or $6.22 per square foot and this amount will grow throughout our first and second quarters as reduced demand for labor and materials accelerates. These savings will start to flow through our results in the back half of the second quarter and will primarily be seen in closings for the second half of the year. What has been a steady increase in construction costs over the last few years will reverse course in our first quarter with a small reduction in cost per square foot compared to our fourth quarter.

自第三季度初以來，我們已將每套房屋的合同成本降低約 14,000 美元或每平方英尺 6.22 美元，並且隨著對勞動力和材料需求的加速減少，這一數額將在第一季度和第二季度持續增長。這些節省將在第二季度後半段開始體現在我們的業績中，並將主要體現在下半年的結賬中。過去幾年建築成本的穩步增長將在第一季度扭轉局面，與第四季度相比，每平方英尺的成本略有下降。

This is primarily driven by lower lumber costs from earlier in the year. This improvement is already baked into our backlog as these homes started in the last 4 to 6 months. Cycle time is the second area of focus for our construction strategy. We see meaningful improvement in this area as cycle time was flat sequentially for the quarter despite the cumulative effect of supply chain disruptions, experiencing the 2 hurricanes that impacted production in Florida and parts of the Carolinas.

這主要是由於今年早些時候木材成本下降所致。隨著這些房屋在過去 4 到 6 個月內開工，這種改進已經融入我們的積壓訂單中。週期時間是我們建設戰略的第二個重點領域。儘管供應鏈中斷的累積影響，經歷了影響佛羅里達州和卡羅來納州部分地區生產的 2 次颶風，但我們看到該領域的重大改善，因為本季度的周期時間環比持平。

Importantly, we saw cycle time improvement during the quarter for the front end of construction, which measures the duration of time from trenching to insulation. This first part of construction process is the first to see labor free up and came down an average of 8 days during the last 4 weeks of our quarter as compared to the prior 4 weeks. As Stuart noted, bringing down our cycle time throughout the next few quarters will free up significant amount of cash that is tied up in inventory, further strengthening our balance sheet.

重要的是，我們看到本季度施工前端的周期時間有所改善，它衡量的是從挖溝到絕緣的持續時間。與前 4 週相比，在本季度的最後 4 週，施工過程的第一部分是第一個釋放勞動力並平均減少 8 天的時間。正如斯圖爾特指出的那樣，在接下來的幾個季度中縮短我們的周期時間將釋放大量庫存中的現金，進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

The third area of focus is even flow production. Prior to the pandemic and its related supply chain disruptions, even flow production was a core focus for us. It is a key pillar for being the builder of choice for the trades as it maximizes efficiencies for them. The steady pace and rhythm of starts through completions is absolutely critical and is only achieved with real-time communication between all parties from Lennar's offices and fields to manufacturers, to distributors, to trades and then back to us.

第三個重點領域是均勻流水生產。在大流行及其相關的供應鏈中斷之前，即使是流動生產也是我們的核心關注點。它是成為交易首選構建器的關鍵支柱，因為它最大限度地提高了交易效率。從開始到完工的穩定節奏和節奏絕對是至關重要的，只有通過從 Lennar 的辦公室和現場到製造商、分銷商、貿易商再到我們的各方之間的實時通信才能實現。

Information such as projected start dates and day-by-day scheduling in the field is enabled with rigorously adhered to technology-driven tools and processes. Level construction flow of our homes drives field and G&A efficiencies for both the trades and Lennar, helping improve margins for both.

通過嚴格遵守技術驅動的工具和流程，可以啟用現場的預計開始日期和每日日程安排等信息。我們房屋的水平施工流程推動了行業和 Lennar 的現場和 G&A 效率，有助於提高兩者的利潤率。

As Stuart noted, this is an intense focus of both Rick and myself along with our national, regional and divisional purchasing and construction teams. All of us are focused every single day on lowering cost, reducing cycle time and achieving even flow production.

正如 Stuart 指出的那樣，這是 Rick 和我本人以及我們的國家、地區和部門採購和施工團隊的重點關注點。我們所有人每天都專注於降低成本、縮短週期時間和實現均勻的流水生產。

Turning next to our land-light strategy. This focus has been the primary driver of cash flow generation over the past several years, leading to the strongest balance sheet in our company's history, and we have taken it up a notch in the current environment. Quarter after quarter, we have worked with our strategic land banks and land partners where we have established relationships to purchase land on our behalf and deliver just-in-time, finished home sites to our homebuilding machine on a quarterly basis.

接下來轉向我們的輕陸戰略。在過去的幾年裡，這種關註一直是現金流產生的主要驅動力，導致我們公司歷史上最強勁的資產負債表，並且我們在當前環境下更上一層樓。一個季度又一個季度，我們與我們的戰略土地銀行和土地合作夥伴合作，在那裡我們建立了代表我們購買土地的關係，並按季度為我們的房屋建築機器提供及時、完工的住宅用地。

During the fourth quarter, we reassessed every land deal in our pipeline, utilizing updated underwriting, we either restructure the price, the terms and/or the timing or we did not proceed with the transaction. The result of this focus was that 75% or approximately $680 million of land purchased in the quarter or just-in-time deliveries from our land banks or land partners. The remaining $220 million of land purchases were made up of option payments and small, short duration land purchases. In fact, about 88% of the land purchased in the first quarter were for transactions under $2 million each.

在第四季度，我們重新評估了我們管道中的每一筆土地交易，利用更新的承保，我們要么重組價格、條款和/或時間，要么我們沒有繼續進行交易。這一重點的結果是本季度購買了 75% 或約 6.8 億美元的土地，或者從我們的土地銀行或土地合作夥伴處及時交付。其餘 2.2 億美元的土地購買由期權付款和小額、短期土地購買組成。事實上，第一季度購買的土地中約有 88% 的交易價格低於 200 萬美元。

During the quarter, we also terminated contracts totaling about 27,800 home sites. There was approximately $37 million in forfeited land deposits associated with some of these terminations. The ongoing focus on our land-light strategy resulted in ending fiscal 2022 with a controlled home site percentage of 63%, up from 59% last year.

本季度，我們還終止了總計約 27,800 個家庭用地的合同。與其中一些終止相關的土地押金大約有 3700 萬美元被沒收。持續關注我們的輕型土地戰略導致在 2022 財年結束時，受控的住宅用地比例從去年的 59% 上升到 63%。

Additionally, we reduced the years of owned homesites to 2.5 years at the end of the fourth quarter, down from 3 years last year. Thank you, and I'll now turn it over to Diane.

此外，我們在第四季度末將自有住宅的年限從去年的 3 年減少到 2.5 年。謝謝，我現在將它交給黛安。

Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. Stuart, Rick and John have provided a great deal of color regarding our homebuilding performance, so I don't need to provide any additional details. Therefore, I'll spend a few minutes on the results of our other business segments and our balance sheet, some points already noted, and then provide high-level thoughts for Q1 of '23.

謝謝你，喬恩，大家早上好。 Stuart、Rick 和 John 就我們的住宅建築表現提供了大量的色彩，因此我不需要提供任何額外的細節。因此，我將花幾分鐘時間了解我們其他業務部門和資產負債表的結果，一些已經指出的要點，然後為 23 年第一季度提供高層次的想法。

So starting with Financial Services. For the fourth quarter, our financial services team produced operating earnings of $125 million. Mortgage operating earnings were $80 million compared to $77 million in the prior year. We benefited from a higher level of lock volume than expected as buyers locked in the attractive rates offered with our interest rate buy-down programs. These discounted interest rates provided certainty to our buyers to avoid potential future rate increases.

所以從金融服務開始。第四季度，我們的金融服務團隊產生了 1.25 億美元的營業收入。抵押貸款營業收入為 8000 萬美元，上年同期為 7700 萬美元。我們受益於比預期更高的鎖定量，因為買家鎖定了我們的利率回購計劃提供的有吸引力的利率。這些折扣利率為我們的買家提供了確定性，以避免未來可能的利率上漲。

Total operating earnings were $44 million compared to $30 million in the prior year. Title earnings increased primarily as a result of higher volume and a decrease in cost per transaction as the team continues to focus on efficiencies through technology. These solid results were accomplished as a result of great connectivity between our homebuilding and financial services teams as they successfully executed together through this choppy environment.

總營業收入為 4400 萬美元，而上一年為 3000 萬美元。隨著團隊繼續專注於通過技術提高效率，產權收入的增加主要是由於交易量增加和每筆交易成本下降。這些可靠的結果是由於我們的住宅建築和金融服務團隊在這種動蕩的環境中成功地共同執行而建立了良好的聯繫。

Then turning to our Lennar Other segment. For the fourth quarter, the Lennar Other segment had an operating loss of $106 million. This loss was primarily the result of noncash mark-to-market losses on our publicly traded technology investments, which totaled 96 months. Although it's been a tough -- very tough environment for technology stocks, we have found and continue to believe that there are incremental operating efficiencies through these technology partnerships for both our homebuilding and financial services platforms as well as greatly improving our homebuyers' experience.

然後轉向我們的 Lennar 其他部分。第四季度，Lennar 其他部門的運營虧損為 1.06 億美元。這一損失主要是我們公開交易的技術投資的非現金市價損失造成的，總計 96 個月。儘管科技股的環境一直很艱難——非常艱難，但我們發現並繼續相信，通過這些技術合作夥伴關係，我們的住宅建築和金融服務平台可以提高運營效率，並大大改善購房者的體驗。

And turning to the balance sheet. As we've all noted, this quarter, we were laser-focused on our balance sheet. We focused on pricing to market, turning inventory and thus generating cash as we -- and we also focused on preserving cash by matching our start pace with our sales pace. And as Jon mentioned, reevaluating every land deal in our pipeline to ensure the underwriting aligned with today's market conditions. The results of these actions that we ended the quarter with $4.6 billion of cash and no borrowings on our revolving credit facility. This provided a total of $7.2 billion of homebuilding liquidity.

轉向資產負債表。正如我們都注意到的那樣，本季度，我們非常關注我們的資產負債表。我們專注於市場定價、周轉庫存並因此產生現金——我們還專注於通過將我們的開始速度與我們的銷售速度相匹配來保留現金。正如喬恩所說，重新評估我們管道中的每筆土地交易，以確保承銷符合當今的市場條件。這些行動的結果是，我們在本季度結束時擁有 46 億美元的現金，並且我們的循環信貸額度沒有借款。這提供了總計 72 億美元的房屋建築流動資金。

During the quarter, we continued our progress of becoming land lighter. At quarter end, we owned 166,000 homesites, and controlled 281,000 homesites for a total of 447,000 homesites. This translates into 2.5 years owned, which exceeded our year-end goal of 2.75 years owned and was an improvement from 3 years in the prior year. We controlled 63% of our home sites, which was slightly lower than our goal of 85% since we walked away from approximately 28,000 homesites related to option contracts that we terminated this quarter.

在本季度，我們繼續推進著陸輕量化。截至季度末，我們擁有 166,000 個宅基地，控制 281,000 個宅基地，總計 447,000 個宅基地。這相當於擁有 2.5 年，超過了我們 2.75 年的年終目標，比上一年的 3 年有所改善。我們控制了 63% 的家庭網站，這略低於我們 85% 的目標，因為我們放棄了與本季度終止的期權合同相關的大約 28,000 個家庭網站。

Last year's control percentage was 59%. When we calculate our years owned and homesites controlled, we include homesites with vertical construction, that is homes in inventory since the goal of these calculations is to assess future balance sheet risk and homes and inventory present lower risk since they turn into cash in a short period of time, we plan to exclude inventory homes from the calculations on a go-forward basis. It's just a better way to look at our business and will provide greater comparability to others in our industry.

去年的控制率為59%。當我們計算我們擁有的年限和控制的房屋時，我們包括垂直建築的房屋，即庫存房屋，因為這些計算的目的是評估未來的資產負債表風險，而房屋和庫存存在較低的風險，因為它們會在短期內變成現金在一段時間內，我們計劃在未來的基礎上將庫存房屋排除在計算之外。它只是一種更好的方式來看待我們的業務，並將提供與我們行業其他人更大的可比性。

So for reference, we had approximately 40,000 homes in inventory, mostly under construction at November 30. If we exclude those homes from the calculations, our years owned was 1.9 years and homesites controlled was 69%. We also remain committed to our focus on increasing shareholder returns. During the fiscal year, we repurchased 11 million shares totaling $967 million or about 4% of our outstanding shares at the beginning of the year.

因此作為參考，我們有大約 40,000 套房屋庫存，大部分在 11 月 30 日正在建設中。如果我們將這些房屋排除在計算之外，我們擁有的年限為 1.9 年，控制的房屋為 69%。我們還繼續致力於提高股東回報。在本財年，我們回購了 1100 萬股股票，總額為 9.67 億美元，約佔年初已發行股票的 4%。

Additionally, during the year, we returned cash to our shareholders by paying dividends of $438 million. From a leverage perspective, as we mentioned, we continue to benefit from our paydown of senior notes and strong generation of earnings, which brought our homebuilding debt to total capital down to 14.4% at quarter end, our lowest ever, which was an improvement from 18.3% in the prior year. And as we mentioned, our net debt to total capital at quarter end was a negative 2.4%.

此外，在這一年中，我們通過支付 4.38 億美元的股息向股東返還現金。從槓桿的角度來看，正如我們所提到的，我們繼續受益於優先票據的償還和強勁的收益，這使我們的房屋建築債務佔總資本的比例在季度末降至 14.4%，這是我們有史以來的最低水平，這是從上一年為 18.3%。正如我們所提到的，我們在季度末的淨債務佔總資本的比例為負 2.4%。

As we look forward, we do not have any senior note maturities in fiscal '23. Our next maturity is $400 million due in December of '23, which is our fiscal '24.

展望未來，我們在 23 財年沒有任何優先票據到期。我們的下一個到期日是 23 年 12 月到期的 4 億美元，這是我們的 24 財年。

And just a few final points on our balance sheet. Our stockholders' equity increased to $24 billion. Our book value per share increased to [$83.16]. Our return on inventory was 32.8%, and our return on equity was 20.9%.

還有我們資產負債表上的最後幾點。我們的股東權益增加到 240 億美元。我們的每股賬面價值增至 [83.16 美元]。我們的存貨回報率為 32.8%，股本回報率為 20.9%。

In summary, the strength of our balance sheet, strong liquidity, and low leverage provide us with significant financial flexibility for the upcoming year. And with that brief overview, let me turn now to the first quarter of '23. It continues to be difficult to provide the targeted guidance that we have historically provided given the uncertainty in market conditions. So as we did last quarter, we're providing very broad ranges to give some boundaries for each of the components of our first quarter. So starting with new orders. We expect Q1 new orders to be in the range of 12,000 to 13,500 homes and expect our Q1 ending community count to be about flattish with the prior year, as we walked away from deals that would have produced new active communities. We anticipate Q1 deliveries to also be in the range of 12,000 to 13,500 homes.

總之，我們強大的資產負債表、強勁的流動性和低杠桿率為我們來年提供了顯著的財務靈活性。有了這個簡短的概述，讓我現在轉向 23 年的第一季度。鑑於市場條件的不確定性，仍然很難提供我們過去提供的有針對性的指導。因此，正如我們上個季度所做的那樣，我們提供了非常廣泛的範圍，為第一季度的每個組成部分提供了一些界限。所以從新訂單開始。我們預計第一季度的新訂單將在 12,000 到 13,500 套房屋之間，並且預計我們的第一季度末社區數量將與去年持平，因為我們放棄了本可以產生新的活躍社區的交易。我們預計第一季度的交付量也將在 12,000 到 13,500 套之間。

Our Q1 average sales price should be in the range of $440,000 to $450,000 as we continue to price to market. We expect gross margin to be about 21%. This number will adjust somewhat based on the number of deliveries, primarily as a result of our policy to expense field costs. As Stuart mentioned, as [we see things] today, we expect our Q1 gross margin will be the low point for gross margins for the year.

隨著我們繼續對市場定價，我們第一季度的平均銷售價格應該在 440,000 美元到 450,000 美元之間。我們預計毛利率約為 21%。該數字將根據交付數量進行一定程度的調整，這主要是由於我們的政策導致現場費用支出。正如斯圖爾特所提到的，正如我們今天看到的那樣，我們預計第一季度的毛利率將是今年毛利率的最低點。

And we expect SG&A to be about 8%. This too will adjust based on deliveries and homebuilding revenue. For the combined homebuilding joint venture, and land sale and other categories, we expect to have a loss of about $10 million.

我們預計 SG&A 約為 8%。這也將根據交付量和房屋建築收入進行調整。對於合併的房屋建築合資企業、土地出售和其他類別，我們預計將虧損約 1000 萬美元。

And looking at our other business segment, we anticipate our financial earnings for Q1 will be in the range of $50 million to $55 million. We expect a loss of about $25 million for our multifamily business; and for the Lennar Other category, also a loss of about $25 million. This guidance does not include any potential mark-to-market adjustments to our technology investments, since that adjustment will be determined by the stock prices at the end of our quarter. We expect our Q1 corporate G&A percentage to be about 2.0% to 2.2% as a result of lower total revenues and our continued investments in internal technology initiatives to produce efficiencies.

看看我們的其他業務部門，我們預計第一季度的財務收益將在 5000 萬至 5500 萬美元之間。我們預計我們的多戶家庭業務將虧損約 2500 萬美元； Lennar 其他類別也虧損約 2500 萬美元。本指南不包括對我們的技術投資進行任何潛在的按市值調整，因為該調整將由本季度末的股價決定。由於總收入較低以及我們持續投資於內部技術計劃以提高效率，我們預計第一季度公司 G&A 百分比約為 2.0% 至 2.2%。

Our charitable foundation contribution will be based on $1,000 per home delivered. And we expect our tax rate to be approximately 24.5%. The weighted average share count for the quarter should be approximately 287 million shares. So when you pull this together, this guidance should produce an EPS range of approximately $1.40 to $1.70 per share for the first quarter.

我們的慈善基金會捐款將基於每個交付的房屋 1,000 美元。我們預計我們的稅率約為 24.5%。本季度的加權平均股數應約為 2.87 億股。因此，當您綜合考慮這些因素時，該指引應該會產生第一季度每股收益大約 1.40 美元至 1.70 美元的範圍。

Finally, given the market uncertainty, we're providing boundaries to deliveries only for the full year of $60,000 to $65,000 but are not providing further details at this time. However, we do look forward to giving another update on our next earnings call.

最後，鑑於市場的不確定性，我們僅提供 60,000 美元至 65,000 美元的全年交付界限，但目前不提供更多細節。但是，我們確實期待在下一次財報電話會議上再次更新。

So with that, let me turn it over to the operator.

因此，讓我把它交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Very exciting times here. I thought that the most interesting thing you commented on today was your outlook for gross margins in 1Q to be the low point for the year. And so I wanted to explore that a little bit. I think you -- there were a few components. I think you talked about lower costs that would start flowing through, I think you said in the back half of 2Q and mostly into the back half of the year.

這裡非常激動人心。我認為您今天評論的最有趣的事情是您對第一季度毛利率的展望是今年的最低點。所以我想稍微探索一下。我認為你 - 有幾個組成部分。我想你談到了開始流動的較低成本，我想你在第二季度後半段說過，而且大部分是在今年下半年。

You also mentioned, I think, Jon, that lumber benefits already in the numbers for 1Q. So that's probably not the reason. So there's 2 other potential reasons I could see why margins might improve. One of them is that, maybe you're benefiting from having lower the level of specifications or finishes, finish level of the homes, and so it's costing you less. Maybe -- and those would be delivered in 2Q? Or that maybe you've seen an improvement in buyer demand over the past several weeks. And so I was wanting to see if you could comment on either of those? And also tell us what range of mortgage rate are you assuming in your outlook?

你還提到，我認為，喬恩，木材收益已經體現在第一季度的數字中。所以這可能不是原因。所以還有 2 個其他潛在原因我可以看出為什麼利潤率可能會提高。其中之一是，也許您會從較低的規格或裝修水平、房屋的裝修水平中受益，因此您的成本會降低。也許——那些將在第二季度交付？或者您可能已經看到過去幾週買家需求有所改善。所以我想看看你是否可以對其中任何一個發表評論？並告訴我們您在展望中假設的抵押貸款利率範圍是多少？

So that's a lot of questions, Steve. So let me start by saying we do expect that our first quarter margin, we think, is going to be a low point. I think it derives in large part from a very general notion, and that is we've gotten out ahead of the migration downward in pricing. We've done it by price reduction and by incentive structure as noted. And we took a very strong first move in that regard in order to keep the machine, the volume moving in the right direction.

所以這是很多問題，史蒂夫。因此，讓我首先說我們確實預計我們認為我們的第一季度利潤率將是一個低點。我認為它在很大程度上源於一個非常普遍的概念，那就是我們已經在定價向下遷移之前就已經退出了。如前所述，我們通過降價和激勵結構來做到這一點。我們在這方面採取了非常有力的第一步，以保持機器，音量朝著正確的方向移動。

With that in mind, we started the reconciliation process with land. Remember, our land position is much shorter term and it's been in past. And therefore, we have flexibility. And so we think that we'll be able to reconcile some land pricing. And as far as our trade partners are concerned, I think I was clear, we've been working with trade partners, both on labor and material. Some of those materials like lumber are already filtering through, just at the very early stages filtering through some of the price reductions that will build as we go through the year. But we are working hand in hand with our partners.

考慮到這一點，我們開始了與土地的和解進程。請記住，我們的土地地位是短期的，而且已經過去了。因此，我們具有靈活性。因此，我們認為我們將能夠協調一些土地定價。就我們的貿易夥伴而言，我想我很清楚，我們一直在與貿易夥伴合作，包括勞動力和材料。其中一些材料，如木材，已經在過濾，只是在很早的階段過濾了我們今年將建立的一些降價。但我們正在與我們的合作夥伴攜手合作。

And given our volume and pickup in market share, there's a lot of labor, a lot of other people out there that are looking to do business with us. We think we'll be able to bring our pricing down. And additionally, we've been hard at work, reconciling efficiencies in the homes that we built, changing product where appropriate and making sure that we are best positioned at sales prices, at interest rates that are higher to be able to access the market and refine our margin as we go through the year.

鑑於我們的數量和市場份額的回升，有很多勞動力，還有很多其他人希望與我們開展業務。我們認為我們能夠降低定價。此外，我們一直在努力工作，協調我們建造的房屋的效率，在適當的時候改變產品，並確保我們在銷售價格和更高的利率上處於最佳位置，以便能夠進入市場和在我們度過這一年的過程中提高我們的利潤率。

You asked the question, what our assumption is relative to interest rates? We've kept a flexibility in our numbers. We recognize that the Fed is focused on unemployment numbers and wage numbers and are likely to continue raising interest rates but the tenure has had a mind of its own, and mortgage rates have been trending down.

您問了這個問題，我們的假設與利率有關嗎？我們在人數上保持了靈活性。我們認識到美聯儲關注的是失業數字和工資數字，並可能繼續加息，但任期有自己的想法，抵押貸款利率一直呈下降趨勢。

I noted the flexibility, the shock absorber nature of our program, our dynamic pricing program that we have in place. All of it is almost agnostic to interest rates. We're going to keep moving through the year, adjusting our pricing and the affordability for our customers in order to do what we can to maintain volume. So we don't have a forward view on interest rates that defines how our program is working. We're going to be adaptable to the interest rate as it evolves through the year. All indications though are that we're probably not going to see much more spiking and more moderating relative to interest rates. But that's a toss-up question.

我注意到我們計劃的靈活性、減震器性質，以及我們已經實施的動態定價計劃。所有這些幾乎都與利率無關。我們將在這一年中繼續前進，調整我們的定價和客戶的承受能力，以盡我們所能來維持銷量。因此，我們對定義我們的計劃如何運作的利率沒有前瞻性看法。隨著利率在一年中的變化，我們將適應利率。不過，所有跡像都表明，我們可能不會看到相對於利率有更多的飆升和更緩和的情況。但這是一個折騰的問題。

I guess the only icing I would add to that very thorough...

我想我會添加到非常徹底的唯一糖霜......

One sec, you know it's hard.

一秒鐘，你知道這很難。

Is that our gross margin is impacted by the volume of closings that we have every quarter. And Q1 is most likely going to be the lower volume quarter. And as we close more homes, as Diane said in her description, the level of field overhead that gets absorbed is spread over more closing, so that has a positive impact on margins.

我們的毛利率是否受到每個季度的成交量的影響。第一季度很可能是銷量較低的季度。正如黛安在她的描述中所說，隨著我們關閉更多的房屋，被吸收的現場開銷水平分佈在更多的關閉中，因此這對利潤率產生了積極影響。

And I know Jon wants to add something. Go ahead, J.

我知道 Jon 想補充一些東西。繼續吧，J。

I just want to clarify, Steve, on what I said about construction costs. As I noted, we're currently working closely with our trade in adjusting contracted pricing. That's what I was referencing in terms of we'll start flowing through in the second half of the second quarter. The biggest needle mover is lumber which moved down throughout the year, and we will see a benefit of that throughout the entire second quarter.

史蒂夫，我只想澄清一下我所說的關於建築成本的內容。正如我所指出的，我們目前正在與我們的行業密切合作調整合同定價。這就是我所說的我們將在第二季度後半段開始流動的內容。最大的推動因素是木材，它全年都在下降，我們將在整個第二季度看到它的好處。

Got you. Okay. That is helpful, Jon. So in other words, you're not talking about deliveries in the back half of 2Q with that lower contracted pricing. That's going to be on stuff you're sort of starting in the back half of 2Q, I guess.

明白了好的。這很有幫助，喬恩。所以換句話說，你不是在談論第二季度後半段以較低的合同價格交貨。我猜這將是你在第二季度後半段開始的事情。

No -- starting now and through quarter and even on some open commitments on homes already started, it's just that we'll see the first benefit of those renegotiated prices with trade starting to happen in the latter part of the second quarter. And we will see the full -- the benefit throughout the full quarter of lumber reductions that started happening in the summer of '22.

不——從現在開始一直持續到本季度，甚至在一些已經開始的房屋公開承諾中，我們將看到這些重新談判的價格的第一個好處，交易將在第二季度後期開始發生。我們將看到完整的——從 22 年夏天開始的整個季度的木材減少帶來的好處。

Second question is on your owned lot count. I know you talked a lot about the ratio and years and all that. But your actual number of owned lots declined for the third straight quarter, and it's down almost 20% from 1Q. And so I'm wondering, can you help us anticipate how much the actual owned lot count might fall over the next few quarters, if market conditions stay challenging and conversely, what kind of market conditions would you need to see for your owned lot count to start rising again?

第二個問題是關於您擁有的批次數量。我知道你談了很多關於比率和年份等等。但您實際擁有的地塊數量連續第三個季度下降，比第一季度下降了近 20%。所以我想知道，如果市場條件仍然充滿挑戰，您能否幫助我們預測未來幾個季度實際擁有的手數可能會下降多少，相反，您需要看到什麼樣的市場條件才能讓您擁有手數重新開始上升？

Diane, you want to start that one off?

黛安，你想開始嗎？

Yes. I mean, Steve, the way I look at it, I think that it's a positive direction that our owned lots homesite count has been going down. The desire is to always protect the balance sheet and reduce risk. So the growth really comes from controlling as much as we can and keeping our owned at a much lower level. But the owned homesites really should be primarily finished homesites, where we're going to put a shovel on the ground pretty quickly. So I'm not bothered by the reduction of owned. The goal is to keep that as low as possible and keep growing the controlled percentage.

是的。我的意思是，史蒂夫，在我看來，我認為這是一個積極的方向，我們擁有的地塊數量一直在下降。希望始終保護資產負債表並降低風險。因此，增長實際上來自於我們盡可能多地控制並將我們擁有的資產保持在低得多的水平。但自有宅基地實際上應該主要是已完工的宅基地，我們將很快將鏟子放在地上。所以我不會因為擁有的減少而煩惱。目標是保持盡可能低的水平並保持增加受控百分比。

Well, and I think that basically, if you think about what we're doing strategically, really building the pipeline between our land bankers, land bank programming and the execution strategy embedded in our volume-based programming. And that's just going to continue to build confidence. I think that you'll see our owned homesite count continued to moderate and be rightsized relative to the business to be able to adequately provide for either stable delivery levels or growth levels as we choose. But that confidence that we're building in that pipeline I think is really value-add for the future.

好吧，我認為基本上，如果你考慮一下我們在戰略上所做的事情，那就是真正在我們的土地銀行家、土地銀行規劃和我們基於體積的規劃中嵌入的執行戰略之間建立管道。這只會繼續建立信心。我認為你會看到我們擁有的網站數量繼續減少，並相對於業務進行調整，以便能夠根據我們的選擇充分提供穩定的交付水平或增長水平。但是我認為我們正在建立的那種信心對未來來說確實是增值的。

Great. Yes, I didn't mean to imply that I thought that, that was a bad thing, Diane. I certainly agree with you. It's a good thing. .

偉大的。是的，我並不是想暗示我認為那是一件壞事，黛安。我當然同意你的看法。這是一件好事。 .

Very good. It's good, and it's getting better.

很好。很好，而且越來越好。

Yes.

是的。

Next, we'll go to Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將拜訪高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is thinking about the sales pace, would you actually maintain ahead of your historical normal level in the last quarter despite everything that's going on, on the ground. And assuming that, that does kind of tie to this broader strategy that you have around, inventory controls and cash generation, can you talk to how we should be thinking about the sales pace for next year? The ability to hold it, perhaps, elevated even as we do continue to move through this environment and what that will mean for the level of cash that you can generate in 2023?

我的第一個問題是考慮銷售速度，儘管發生了所有事情，但您實際上是否會在上個季度保持領先於歷史正常水平。假設這確實與你所擁有的更廣泛的戰略、庫存控制和現金生成有關，你能談談我們應該如何考慮明年的銷售速度嗎？即使我們繼續在這種環境中前進，持有它的能力也許會提高，這對您在 2023 年可以產生的現金水平意味著什麼？

So looking at our sales pace for last quarter as well as our go-forward sales pace, we're going to keep -- as Stuart said, we're going to keep the machine going and feel that from an overhead and operational standpoint, we get greater leverage by keeping that sales active. We know it's above where we were in 2019 from a pace standpoint and our focus is to keep and maintain that pace as we move forward into 2023.

因此，看看我們上個季度的銷售速度以及我們未來的銷售速度，我們將保持——正如斯圖爾特所說，我們將保持機器運轉，並從管理和運營的角度來看，我們通過保持銷售活躍來獲得更大的影響力。從速度的角度來看，我們知道它高於 2019 年的水平，我們的重點是在進入 2023 年時保持並保持這種速度。

Yes. I think you can expect a lot of consistency. I probably haven't spent enough time talking about our dynamic pricing model, but it is really at the core of how we're running our business, and we're doing it on a day-by-day basis focusing on how do we get the right pricing for the customer base for today's affordability to maintain that sales pace. I think we're going to continue to see us working hard in that direction.

是的。我認為您可以期待很多一致性。我可能沒有花足夠的時間來談論我們的動態定價模型，但它確實是我們經營業務的核心，我們每天都在這樣做，重點是我們如何為客戶群獲得正確的價格，以保持當前的銷售速度。我認為我們將繼續看到我們朝著這個方向努力。

As I noted, it has the ancillary business of informing our land banking pipeline, but the dependability they expected is the dependability they'll get. And we're moving through our pipeline of higher-priced land that was priced or bought to yesterday's pricing, and we'll be bringing in land that is more appropriately priced to current market conditions. All of this kind of works synergistically to [brilliant] 4 months to keep that volume and that sales pace consistent.

正如我所指出的，它具有通知我們的土地儲備管道的輔助業務，但他們期望的可靠性是他們將獲得的可靠性。我們正在通過按照昨天的價格定價或購買的高價土地的管道，我們將引進價格更適合當前市場條件的土地。所有這些協同工作 [輝煌] 4 個月，以保持銷量和銷售速度一致。

I would just add, remind you that our strategy has been and remains matching sales to our start pace and we have a very steady start pace that will inform our sales pace as we move forward. That ties directly into the dynamic pricing model that as a tool our operators used to do exactly that.

我只想補充一點，提醒您，我們的戰略一直並將繼續使銷售與我們的起步速度相匹配，並且我們有一個非常穩定的起步速度，這將在我們前進的過程中為我們的銷售速度提供信息。這直接與動態定價模型相關，作為我們的運營商用來執行此操作的工具。

Okay. That's all very helpful. And I guess it also leads to the next question of how do you think about the uses of that cash. You mentioned that you're obviously in a net cash position now as it relates to your balance sheet. What are some of the priorities? You bought back stock in this past quarter, would you consider getting more aggressive there? Anything else that's on your radar?

好的。這一切都非常有幫助。我想這也會引出下一個問題，即您如何看待這些現金的用途。你提到你現在顯然處於淨現金狀況，因為它與你的資產負債表有關。有哪些優先事項？你在上個季度回購了股票，你會考慮在那裡變得更加激進嗎？還有什麼在你的雷達上嗎？

Yes. So I'm happy you asked that question. I know it's on the minds of many of our investors and people that follow the company. We're not ashamed of having too much cash. In fact, in these -- in times like we've been in, it's a tremendous advantage and produces a lot of optionality.

是的。所以我很高興你問了這個問題。我知道我們的許多投資者和關注公司的人都在想這個問題。我們不以擁有太多現金為恥。事實上，在這些——就像我們所處的時代，這是一個巨大的優勢，並產生了很多可選性。

Looking backwards to this quarter, this was a tough reconciling quarter. Again, you have the clash of prices coming down in a very complicated supply chain that was in this repair, exacerbated by 2 hurricanes rolling through our primary markets. This was a very good quarter to focus on our balance sheet and cash generation. But here we sit and what we do with cash, we're likely to continue to generate cash with the program that's in place. Stock buybacks are clearly one of those avenues. We're constantly looking opportunistically at repurchasing stock. We did purchase some stock this quarter. But in the abundance of caution, we just decided to go slow before we go fast. Stock buybacks are on the table.

回顧本季度，這是一個艱難的協調季度。再一次，在這次維修中，一個非常複雜的供應鏈中出現了價格衝突，而 2 場颶風席捲我們的主要市場，加劇了這種衝突。這是一個非常好的季度，可以專注於我們的資產負債表和現金生成。但我們坐在這裡，我們用現金做什麼，我們很可能會繼續通過現有的計劃產生現金。股票回購顯然是這些途徑之一。我們一直在尋找機會回購股票。本季度我們確實購買了一些股票。但出於謹慎，我們只是決定先慢後快。股票回購已經擺在桌面上。

But also as we come around, we know -- and remember that in the body of my messages, we are going to sit with a production reduction, I think, it's going to be by 1/3, maybe more, a reduction in production of homes, both multifamily and single family. We are not going to see the existing home market, putting a lot of supply in place because buyers are protecting low interest rates. And we're not going to have an inventory overhang. So it is our belief that the duration of this correction is going to be somewhat smaller or more limited and having additional capital enables us to be opportunistic in growing our business when those signals start to come our way as well.

但當我們改變過來時，我們知道 - 請記住，在我的消息正文中，我們將減產，我認為，減產將減少 1/3，也許更多房屋的數量，包括多戶家庭和單戶家庭。我們不會看到現房市場出現大量供應，因為買家正在保護低利率。而且我們不會有庫存過剩。因此，我們相信這次調整的持續時間會更短或更有限，並且擁有額外的資本使我們能夠在這些信號也開始出現時抓住機會發展我們的業務。

And you know us from the past, people have seen how we operate in the past. Lennar tends to be a first mover. We probably will be in this case as well. So both to grow our business and to buy back stock and to pay down debt. All of these are viable uses of cash. We're fortunate to have the optionality to go slow first and then to accelerate. And to pick and choose where the best returns are garnered.

你從過去就了解我們，人們已經看到了我們過去的運作方式。 Lennar 往往是先行者。我們可能也會遇到這種情況。因此，既要發展我們的業務，又要回購股票並償還債務。所有這些都是現金的可行用途。我們很幸運可以選擇先慢下來再加速。並挑選獲得最佳回報的地方。

Next, we'll go to the line of Ken Zener from KeyBanc.

接下來，我們將轉到 KeyBanc 的 Ken Zener 系列。

Stuart an iconic movie says, ABC, always be closing, which requires you to start homes to optimize inventory turns, which reduces your land, your most cyclical asset. A simple strategy I think many investors overlook when considering margins alone.

斯圖爾特的一部標誌性電影說，ABC，總是要關門，這需要你開始建造房屋以優化庫存周轉，這會減少你的土地，這是你最具週期性的資產。我認為許多投資者在單獨考慮利潤率時忽略了一個簡單的策略。

My first question is, with starts leading orders, could you comment on how you balance the unit economics of, let's say, the lower margin, 5% versus the incremental cash flow of selling that unit, as your land goes down 20% or perhaps, 50% when your actual inventory units decline because I think the idea is the income statement is nice, but the cash flow that comes from these choices is much more cyclically important.

我的第一個問題是，隨著開始領先的訂單，你能否評論一下你如何平衡單位經濟，比方說，較低的利潤率，5% 與出售該單位的增量現金流量，因為你的土地下降了 20% 或可能, 50% 當你的實際庫存單位下降時，因為我認為這個想法是損益表很好，但來自這些選擇的現金流在周期性上更為重要。

Well, in your question, you basically embedded the entirety of our strategy because the reality is, if you look backwards, we have been reducing our SG&A to extremely low levels so that as margins come down, we're still producing cash and we're producing profit and bottom line. But at the same time, it enables us in tougher time to continue turning our inventory, turning our land inventory, as I noted, our higher price purchased to yesterday's pricing land inventory. We will continue turning that. It is cash productive and we'll redeploy that into repriced land purchases for the future.

好吧，在你的問題中，你基本上嵌入了我們的整個戰略，因為現實是，如果你回顧過去，我們一直在將我們的 SG&A 降低到極低的水平，因此隨著利潤率下降，我們仍在產生現金，而且我們'重新產生利潤和底線。但與此同時，它使我們能夠在更艱難的時期繼續轉變我們的庫存，轉變我們的土地庫存，正如我指出的那樣，我們購買的更高價格為昨天的定價土地庫存。我們將繼續改變這一點。它可以產生現金，我們將把它重新部署到未來重新定價的土地購買中。

All of this is symbiotic and works to drive cash flows, replenish inventory appropriately positioned while keeping the trains running on time and generating cash flow, improving the balance sheet and maintaining profitability. So that is basically the game plan.

所有這些都是共生的，可以推動現金流，補充適當位置的庫存，同時保持列車準時運行並產生現金流，改善資產負債表並保持盈利能力。這基本上就是遊戲計劃。

Great. And then second question, Diane, I think your comments on owned land, 2.5 years versus [1.9] absent WIP is new. Within that context, my question is if you do 12,500 starts at 50,000 annualized, just to make it simple, does that suggest or imply your ending inventory units will probably be down versus -- year-over-year versus your 60,000 closing because that's going to be potentially an enormous amount of cash flow from that unit reduction.

偉大的。然後第二個問題，黛安，我認為你對自有土地的評論，2.5 年與 [1.9] 缺席 WIP 是新的。在這種情況下，我的問題是，如果你以每年 50,000 的速度啟動 12,500，只是為了簡單起見，這是否表明或暗示你的期末庫存單位可能會比 - 同比下降與你的 60,000 關閉因為那是單位減少可能帶來巨大的現金流量。

Yes, I think that's right, Ken. I mean, as you've heard us say consistently, we're very focused on keeping volume up, capturing our market share. We're enthusiastic about resolving some of the supply chain issues. Stuart mentioned that, we think embedded in our balance sheet might be about $1.5 billion. So whether that's the exact right number or not as we can debate. But directionally, the point is there's a lot of cashing on our balance sheet. And so as we unwind all of that, that would lead me to believe that you'll see lower inventory level and lower home construction -- in construction.

是的，我認為這是對的，肯。我的意思是，正如你一直聽到我們所說的那樣，我們非常專注於保持銷量，佔領我們的市場份額。我們熱衷於解決一些供應鏈問題。斯圖爾特提到，我們認為嵌入在我們資產負債表中的可能約為 15 億美元。所以我們可以討論這個數字是否準確。但從方向上講，關鍵是我們的資產負債表上有很多現金。因此，當我們解除所有這些時，這會讓我相信你會看到較低的庫存水平和較低的房屋建設——建築業。

And by the way, it reminds me of a meeting that we had with one of our investors some years ago, where we mapped out -- and when I say someone talking about like 6 or 7 or 8 years ago, really mapped out exactly the strategy, you remember that, Rick?

順便說一句，這讓我想起了幾年前我們與一位投資者的一次會議，我們在會上製定了計劃——當我說某人在 6 年、7 年或 8 年前談論時，確實準確地制定了戰略，你還記得嗎，瑞克？

Yes. Sure.

是的。當然。

We mapped out exactly the strategy and said, this is what we're going to do, all the way down to the reduction in that inventory level. And this is exactly the game plan.

我們準確地制定了戰略並說，這就是我們要做的，一直到降低庫存水平。這正是遊戲計劃。

Our next question is from Matthew Bouley from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

So I just wanted to ask about sort of the, I guess, the downside scenario. The balance between price margins and pace, clearly, you're -- your price taker model is successfully keeping that sales pace elevated and you're getting the cash generation out of that. And I know you mentioned the 21% gross margin is going to be -- or potentially the low point for the year. But my question is if market conditions were to deteriorate kind of where the limit is to your willingness to trade margin further? Is there somewhere where you would draw the line? Basically, how does the model kind of change when you get to these levels on gross margin?

所以我只是想問一下，我想，不利的情況。價格利潤率和速度之間的平衡，很明顯，你是——你的價格接受者模型成功地保持了銷售速度的提高，你正在從中獲得現金。我知道你提到 21% 的毛利率將是——或者可能是今年的低點。但我的問題是，如果市場狀況惡化，您是否願意進一步交易保證金？有什麼地方可以劃清界限嗎？基本上，當您的毛利率達到這些水平時，模型會發生怎樣的變化？

Well, let me just say that as I noted just a minute ago, we've been preparing for this for quite a long time. We have been focused on building efficiencies, sticky efficiencies into our SG&A, especially at the division level over the past years, quarter-by-quarter, basis points by basis points, we have been refining, reducing the cost of doing business. I think that if market condition were to continue to deteriorate, we're going to continue to lean into the consistent program going forward. We have a lot of room to be able to make those adjustments.

好吧，我只想說，正如我剛才所說的，我們已經為此準備了很長時間。我們一直專注於提高效率，在我們的 SG&A 中提高效率，特別是在過去幾年的部門層面，逐個季度，逐個基點，我們一直在改進，降低經營成本。我認為，如果市場狀況繼續惡化，我們將繼續依賴於未來的一致計劃。我們有很大的空間可以進行這些調整。

I think that there's been some concern about notions of impairment. There might be some modest impairments that flow through with further deterioration, but it's not going to be the significant kind of programming that you've seen in the past. I think we've got really terrific shock absorbers within our operating platform to be able to continue the program even as -- even if you look at a downside scenario, we'll continue to be building and volume focused through alterations of the market.

我認為人們對損害的概念有些擔憂。隨著進一步惡化，可能會出現一些適度的損害，但這不會是您過去看到的那種重要的編程。我認為我們在我們的運營平台中擁有非常棒的減震器，能夠繼續該計劃，即使你看到一個不利的情況，我們將繼續通過市場的變化來建立和關注數量。

And you really can't underestimate the leverage that we get in working with our trade partners as things slow down across the board. People are looking for work. If we're going to be the ones out there to do (inaudible) starting homes, we're going to get cost concessions, bringing cost concessions from our trade partners, from our land partners. And we're just going to continue as Jon said here, value engineer and respecify our product in order to make it more affordable, so we can have more higher margins.

隨著事情全面放緩，你真的不能低估我們與貿易夥伴合作的影響力。人們正在找工作。如果我們要在那裡做（聽不清）開始建房，我們將獲得成本優惠，從我們的貿易夥伴，我們的土地合作夥伴那裡帶來成本優惠。正如喬恩在這裡所說的那樣，我們將繼續進行價值工程並重新指定我們的產品，以使其更實惠，這樣我們就可以獲得更高的利潤。

Wonderful. And second one, Stuart, you just alluded to it, but I wanted to ask about the impairment side. You did take the small write-downs in the quarter. It sounds like you're -- as you just mentioned that you might expect some smaller ones going forward. But just kind of I guess, number one, given what you did write down this quarter, did that kind of clear the deck, so to speak? Or as you think about potential market deterioration, what would be that kind of next decile of communities where there is risk? Just kind of any elaboration on owned land impairments and then further option walkaways.

精彩的。第二個，斯圖爾特，你剛才提到了，但我想問一下關於損傷方面的問題。你確實在本季度進行了小額減記。聽起來你是——正如你剛才提到的，你可能會期待一些更小的公司向前發展。但我想，第一，考慮到你在本季度所做的記錄，可以這麼說嗎？或者當你考慮潛在的市場惡化時，下一個存在風險的十分之一社區是什麼？只是對自有土地減值的任何闡述，然後是進一步的選擇權。

Okay. Look, I understand the concern and the black box of impairments that naturally people feel. If you look historically, we've been very quick to get ahead of the curve. And so when you ask the question, did we clear the decks? We're always clearing the decks and that's how we think about it. The answer is, as if the market is going to continue to deteriorate, and we can't put a boundary on what that might mean. We're going to always be straightforward and give as much visibility as possible. And I don't think there's additional visibility to give right now. I think that the size and scale of what we took as an impairment is about all the [risk].

好的。看，我理解人們自然而然地感受到的關注和黑匣子的損害。如果你從歷史上看，我們很快就走在了曲線的前面。所以當你問這個問題時，我們是否清理了甲板？我們總是清理甲板，這就是我們的想法。答案是，好像市場將繼續惡化，我們無法確定這可能意味著什麼。我們將始終直截了當，並提供盡可能多的可見性。而且我認為現在沒有額外的可見性。我認為我們認為的損害的規模和規模是關於所有 [風險] 的。

We really -- especially given cash and balance sheet and everything else, we really shook the tree this time. And as we always do, and we clear the decks, as you say, I think you're going to consistently see that with Lennar. It's always been the case with Lennar. Diane, do you want to add to it?

我們真的 - 特別是考慮到現金和資產負債表以及其他一切，這次我們真的搖搖欲墜。就像我們一直做的那樣，我們清理甲板，正如你所說，我認為你會一直在 Lennar 身上看到這一點。 Lennar 的情況一直如此。黛安，你想補充嗎？

Yes. I was going to say, Matt, if you think about what you're looking for an impairment, it's where you're finding negative net margins. And so if you look at where our gross margins are, it's not a surprise that our impairment split between backlog and active communities. On the active community side, it was 8 communities, and we have 1,200. So there's always going to be some communities that have negative net margins. But given where we are as a company on average, I don't think that the concern for net margin should be as great as some people are articulating. There's always going to be some backlog adjustments. There's always going to be some communities that are below the norm, but I don't think we're anywhere near the widespread impairments that people are voicing concern over.

是的。我要說的是，馬特，如果你想一想你正在尋找的減值，那就是你發現負淨利潤率的地方。因此，如果你看看我們的毛利率在哪裡，我們的減值在積壓和活躍社區之間分裂就不足為奇了。在活躍社區方面，有 8 個社區，我們有 1,200 個。所以總會有一些社區的淨利潤為負。但考慮到我們作為一家公司的平均水平，我認為對淨利潤率的擔憂不應該像某些人所說的那樣嚴重。總會有一些積壓的調整。總會有一些社區低於常態，但我認為我們離人們表達擔憂的普遍障礙還差得很遠。

Next, we'll go to the line of Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

接下來，我們將轉到 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson 的路線。

Diane, congratulations on the cash balance. .

黛安，恭喜你有現金餘額。 .

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So first question is kind of 3 part with your dynamic pricing model. One, could you just elaborate on it a bit more with perhaps not giving away too much competitively, if you will. But second, I understand every market is different, but could you just discuss generally what level of pricing maybe below nearby competing communities is generally needed to move the inventory?

所以第一個問題是關於您的動態定價模型的 3 部分。第一，如果你願意的話，你能否更詳細地闡述一下，也許不要在競爭中放棄太多。但其次，我知道每個市場都是不同的，但你能否一般性地討論一下，通常需要低於附近競爭社區的定價水平是多少才能轉移庫存？

And then three, you all, Stuart, I believe, said that incentives kind of accelerated through the quarter, discounts anyway in orders, you could just kind of give us an understanding where you sat in November, December versus maybe a year ago?

然後是三個，你們所有人，斯圖爾特，我相信，說激勵在整個季度都在加速，無論如何在訂單中都有折扣，你可以讓我們了解你在 11 月、12 月與一年前相比的位置嗎？

So was the first part that he was asking as a pricing model?

那麼他問的第一部分是定價模型嗎？

Dynamic, yes.

動態的，是的。

Yes. Yes. The dynamic pricing.

是的。是的。動態定價。

And one of the questions...

還有其中一個問題...

To be able to understand and really get into the pricing model, you'd have to talk to the inimitable Jeff Moses. And he doesn't talk to anyone, probably. Keep it internally but do you want to go ahead and answer that, Diane?

為了能夠理解並真正了解定價模型，您必須與無與倫比的 Jeff Moses 交談。而且他可能不與任何人交談。保留在內部，但你想繼續回答這個問題嗎，黛安？

It's really an incredible tool, Truman, and we really should spend -- and I'm happy to do that, I'm really happy to spend some time. It's much more involved than you would imagine. It's a home-by-home assessment, each home, each community, each market and the tool looks at a [fiduciary] of what we've sold that exact plan for over time.

這真的是一個令人難以置信的工具，杜魯門，我們真的應該花錢——我很高興這樣做，我真的很高興花一些時間。它比你想像的要復雜得多。這是逐家進行的評估，每個家庭、每個社區、每個市場和該工具都會查看我們隨著時間的推移出售該確切計劃的[受託人]。

And it also looks at the market competition for that plan in that community, in that market. So it's a lot of detail, but the point is, it truly gives us an unbelievable amount of real-time detailed information because that's really the only way that you can price. We talk about it at a very high level, but pricing really is at a planned community market level. And it allows us to be really flexible when pricing is going up as well as pricing is going down. We use the tool in all market conditions.

它還著眼於該計劃在該社區、該市場中的市場競爭。所以它有很多細節，但重點是，它確實為我們提供了數量驚人的實時詳細信息，因為這確實是您可以定價的唯一方式。我們在很高的層面上談論它，但定價確實是在計劃好的社區市場層面上進行的。它讓我們在定價上漲和下跌時都非常靈活。我們在所有市場條件下都使用該工具。

And it is real-time available to the local market as well as to the corporate office and everyone in between. And so that connected engagement really enables us to stay close to the market, close to the pricing and very interactive at all levels in the company.

它可以實時提供給當地市場以及公司辦公室和介於兩者之間的每個人。因此，這種相互聯繫的參與確實使我們能夠貼近市場，貼近定價，並且在公司的各個層面都非常互動。

And react quickly.

並迅速做出反應。

The other thing that [all] does, you hear us throughout our strategies, talk about start pace and sales pace. This tool connects all of the dynamics and metrics, Diane, just referenced to that pace, so we can adjust in real time to make sure that we're not ever getting behind the pace that we want to be at.

[所有人] 所做的另一件事是，您在整個戰略中聽到我們談論啟動速度和銷售速度。這個工具連接了所有的動態和指標，黛安，只是參考了那個速度，所以我們可以實時調整以確保我們永遠不會落後於我們想要的速度。

Okay. Perfect. And then any -- I'm just trying to understand maybe the elasticity of demand with how much might be needed to move relative to some competitors nearby?

好的。完美的。然後任何 - 我只是想了解需求的彈性，相對於附近的一些競爭對手可能需要移動多少？

Well, as we said in the commentary, we're constantly evaluating what's going on with other competitors, what their inventory position is, what their pricing is, are they generating sales? And this is a very fluid conversation that Jon, I had with the regional presidents and the division presidents. We are all over this.

好吧，正如我們在評論中所說，我們一直在評估其他競爭對手的情況，他們的庫存狀況如何，他們的定價是多少，他們是否產生了銷售？這是喬恩與地區總裁和部門總裁進行的非常流暢的對話。我們已經結束了。

And to the extent someone make a pricing adjustment and if we need to move something, we're going to move it. We want to stay ahead of it. And hopefully have them follow what we do. And there's not anything that we're really not familiar with that's going on out there.

在某種程度上，有人進行了定價調整，如果我們需要移動某些東西，我們就會移動它。我們想保持領先地位。希望他們能效仿我們的做法。並且沒有任何我們真的不熟悉的事情發生在那裡。

And it dovetails -- all of this dovetails with our digital marketing focus. We have a robust digital marketing group with a data science component that dovetails exactly with the dynamic pricing program. So we're generating, we're generating the customer base and building the pricing that is going to appeal and creating the intersection.

它相吻合——所有這些都與我們的數字營銷重點相吻合。我們有一個強大的數字營銷團隊，其數據科學組件與動態定價程序完全吻合。因此，我們正在生成，我們正在生成客戶群並建立具有吸引力的定價並創建交叉點。

And I think that the drop the mic or the proof in the pudding is, as Stuart mentioned that we've only got 900 completed homes in the company right now.

而且我認為麥克風或布丁中的證據是，正如斯圖爾特提到的那樣，我們公司目前只有 900 套完工的房屋。

And in many ways, I would tell, Jon, I'd like some more. Jon said, he'd like less. But we have our even flow and machine going and homes are being produced as we match them to sales, we've got the perfect amount of inventory.

在很多方面，我會告訴喬恩，我想要更多。喬恩說，他想少點。但是我們的流程和機器運轉均勻，房屋正在生產，因為我們將它們與銷售相匹配，我們擁有完美的庫存量。

Yes. And I'm going to say as long as you brought it up. We have 900 homes in inventory. We would actually be better with more of that standing inventory because of today's customer is...

是的。只要你提出來，我就會說。我們有 900 套房屋庫存。實際上，如果有更多的常備庫存，我們會更好，因為今天的客戶是……

Premium.

優質的。

Yes, it's premiums. And I'd want to emphasize one more time, there were no bulk sales at discounted rates to clear inventory. And can't always trust what you read. So let's go from there.

是的，是溢價。我想再強調一次，沒有以折扣價進行批量銷售以清理庫存。並且不能總是相信你讀到的東西。所以讓我們從那裡開始吧。

Okay. Perfect. And then just on the vendor and contractor savings specifically, what inning of cost savings do you think we're in today? And as of, we'll call it, December 15, are the savings primarily on the labor side? Or are there certain materials, products outside of lumber?

好的。完美的。然後就供應商和承包商的具體節省而言，您認為我們今天處於哪一局的成本節約中？從 12 月 15 日開始，儲蓄主要是在勞動力方面嗎？或者是否有木材以外的某些材料、產品？

Look, we're clearly in the early innings because as the homebuilding industry is completing the fourth quarter of the year, you have for all builders really the largest production quarter, so labor has been -- has remained very busy while the market has slowed down prior to the fourth quarter. And as Stuart noted, and I noted, it's -- that's why you typically always see a lag between sales prices moving down and then construction costs moving down. So we're clearly in the early innings of that. We feel like we've got tremendous traction.

看，我們顯然處於早期階段，因為隨著房屋建築行業即將結束今年第四季度，對所有建築商來說，這確實是最大的生產季度，所以勞動力一直非常忙碌，而市場放緩在第四季度之前下降。正如斯圖爾特指出的那樣，我也指出，這就是為什麼你通常總是看到銷售價格下降和建築成本下降之間存在滯後。所以我們顯然處於早期階段。我們覺得我們有巨大的牽引力。

And as I noted earlier, I think we'll see significant movement as we move through our first quarter, into our second quarter in terms of reductions. And that will happen primarily because starts have dramatically slowed within the industry. We've kept our start level at a consistent pace. And so as that labor frees up, that brings the cost of labor down. But also as those start to come down, that creates more availability of materials for the manufacturing production. So material prices come down as well. That also tends to lag a little bit more behind labor because it's got a longer production cycle where labor is more immediate.

正如我之前指出的那樣，我認為我們將在第一季度進入第二季度時看到顯著的變化。這將發生主要是因為行業內的啟動速度已經大大放緩。我們一直以一致的速度保持我們的起步水平。因此，隨著勞動力的釋放，勞動力成本就會下降。但隨著這些開始下降，這也為製造生產創造了更多的材料可用性。所以材料價格也下降了。這也往往會稍微落後於勞動力，因為它的生產週期更長，勞動力更直接。

We're going to add 2 more.

我們將再添加 2 個。

Our next question is from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Stuart, I'd love to drill in a little bit on your kind of industry-wide starts outlook for next year. My initial reaction when you kind of threw out down 30% was a little bit of a surprise. And I guess the way I'm thinking about it is, you guys are targeting a pretty flat pace for the year. Your largest competitor D.R. Horton has kind of articulated something similar. You guys are 25% of the single-family production market. There's been a lot of other builders that pulled back very sharply this year on starts as they were kind of clearing through some of the spec they built up in the spring. But if you have said we see the advantages of spec, we're going to ramp our start pace heading into the spring to kind of capitalize on that as well. So I guess my question is, how do you kind of arrive at that number? And let's say, for argument's sake, the decline is less than that, let's say it's 10% or 20%, does that impact your confidence on kind of getting the cost savings that you're clearly expecting for the year and the margin guidance that you gave as far as 1Q being the low watermark?

斯圖爾特，我想深入了解一下你對明年全行業的開工展望。當你放棄 30% 時，我最初的反應有點驚訝。我想我的想法是，你們今年的目標是相當平穩的步伐。你最大的競爭對手 D.R.霍頓表達了類似的觀點。你們佔單戶生產市場的 25%。今年有很多其他建築商在開工時大幅縮減，因為他們正在清理他們在春季建立的一些規範。但是，如果您說我們看到了規範的優勢，那麼我們將在春季前加快啟動步伐，以充分利用這一點。所以我想我的問題是，你是如何得出這個數字的？假設，為了爭論的緣故，下降幅度小於 10% 或 20%，這是否會影響您對獲得今年明確預期的成本節約和利潤率指導的信心？你給出的 1Q 是低水位線嗎？

So first of all, Alan, I'd say that we could look at some of the larger builders and I'm sure that they'll adjust their start pace and no one is asleep at the switch in our industry, a lot of very smart participants. But there are some practical realities relative to smaller builders across the country. Remember, the larger builders are that we make up a proportion. And the capital markets are complicated right now. It's not just a question of strategy for some. It's a question of what can you actually get started and how are the capital markets supporting it. I think that it might be only 10% or 20% or 30%. I don't know what the percentage is going to be.

所以首先，艾倫，我想說我們可以看看一些更大的建築商，我相信他們會調整他們的起步速度，而且在我們行業的轉變中沒有人睡著了，很多非常聰明的參與者但相對於全國較小的建築商，也有一些實際情況。請記住，較大的建築商是我們佔一定比例的。現在的資本市場很複雜。對於一些人來說，這不僅僅是一個戰略問題。這是一個問題，您實際上可以從什麼開始，以及資本市場如何支持它。我認為它可能只有 10% 或 20% 或 30%。我不知道百分比會是多少。

My personal view is that it looks like many of the smaller builders are really pulled back, the complication of price reductions and what's been paid for land and stuff like that. The other side of it, which makes up about 1/3 of production is multifamily. And the multifamily capital markets are very frozen up right now. I think that the number of new communities coming out of the ground for multifamily and even the single-family for rent buyers are kind of seized up because of capital markets considerations.

我個人的看法是，許多較小的建築商似乎真的退縮了，降價的複雜性以及為土地和諸如此類的東西支付的費用。另一方面，約佔產量的 1/3 是多戶型。多戶家庭資本市場現在非常凍結。我認為，出於資本市場的考慮，為多戶住宅甚至單戶住宅而建的新社區的數量都被搶購一空。

So let's not even throw in strategy just from a capital market standpoint. It feels to me can't prove that a very sizable portion of starts for next year are going to be under limitation. Now if it ends up being only 10% instead of 25%. Still, you're looking at a housing shortage. I know that there are many with different opinions on this. I believe there's been a production shortage, housing shortage across the country. If you talk to mayors and governors across the country, their single biggest concern is workforce housing supply and affordability.

因此，我們甚至不要僅僅從資本市場的角度來製定戰略。在我看來，無法證明明年有相當大一部分的開工將受到限制。現在如果它最終只有 10% 而不是 25%。儘管如此，您仍然看到住房短缺。我知道有很多人對此有不同的看法。我相信全國各地都存在生產短缺和住房短缺的問題。如果你與全國各地的市長和州長交談，他們最關心的一個問題是勞動力住房供應和負擔能力。

It is a drumbeat that is in almost every major city and every state. And we feel that there is a shortage that is going to be compounded by the fact that there will be some production and reduction out of this and whether 10% or 35%, it's still going to be short supply, and I think a more limited downturn.

這是幾乎每個主要城市和每個州的鼓點。而且我們認為短缺會因生產和減產而加劇，無論是 10% 還是 35%，仍然會供不應求，我認為更有限低迷。

I appreciate the insight there, Stuart. Secondly, I think you kind of touched on it a little bit. You highlighted you can rate peaking in October, but just to kind of be more explicit. Can you just talk about what changes you have seen over the last 3, 4 weeks with the pullback in rates? Have you seen home buyer demand improving? And any pricing power coming back even or maybe a moderation in the need for additional incentives thus far in November and early December so far?

我很欣賞那裡的洞察力，斯圖爾特。其次，我認為你有點觸及它。您強調您可以在 10 月達到峰值，但只是為了更明確。您能否談談過去 3 週、4 週以來利率回落帶來的變化？您是否看到購房者需求有所改善？到目前為止，在 11 月和 12 月初到目前為止，是否有任何定價權甚至可以緩和對額外激勵措施的需求？

So we've seen a combination of increased traffic, greater buyer demand, traffic increase, both on -- in the community level and on our website. Definitely, fewer cans, which we noted. And all that has just been stabilizing the environment, hasn't quite led to higher pricing yet, but those are generally happened before you gain some sort of pricing power accounts.

因此，我們在社區層面和我們的網站上看到了流量增加、買家需求增加、流量增加的組合。當然，罐頭更少，我們注意到了這一點。所有這些只是在穩定環境，還沒有完全導致更高的定價，但這些通常發生在你獲得某種定價權賬戶之前。

And just to be clear, that is incorporated in your 1Q order guidance of down 15% to I think 25 or so percent that incorporates the occupancy in the last few weeks...

需要明確的是，這已包含在您的 1Q 訂單指導中，下降 15% 到我認為 25% 左右，其中包括過去幾週的入住率......

Yes, that's in range because we're expecting at this point in time.

是的，這在範圍內，因為我們期待在這個時間點。

One more question, please.

請再問一個問題。

Our final question comes from Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

Nice way to end the call today.

今天結束通話的好方法。

Appreciate that, Stuart. First question, just wanted to be sorry if I'm not fully grasping elements of the guidance or comments. But on your view around or outlook around first quarter gross margins being the lowest of the year and improving from there on in. Just wanted to be clear that -- or perhaps you could articulate a little bit, what type of view on price or pricing trends over the next 6 to 9 months, does that incorporate, because certainly, it appears that it's incorporating some amount of cost relief, I guess, as you're going into the back half. I'd be curious how much of a basis point standpoint, the cost relief is. But more importantly, what type of view on price does that outlook for gross margins throughout fiscal '23 reflect?

對此表示感謝，斯圖爾特。第一個問題，如果我沒有完全掌握指南或評論的要素，我只想說抱歉。但根據你對第一季度毛利率的看法或展望，毛利率是今年最低的，並且從那以後有所改善。只是想明確一點——或者你可以稍微闡明一下，對價格或定價的看法是什麼未來 6 到 9 個月的趨勢，這是否包含在內，因為我猜，當你進入後半部分時，它似乎包含了一些成本削減。我很好奇成本減免的基點是多少。但更重要的是，整個 23 財年的毛利率前景反映了什麼樣的價格觀點？

So from a price ASP standpoint, we're not assuming any appreciation in the market. That's where underwriting debt. That's what we see out there. To the extent that there's price appreciation or we're able to increase our ASP...

因此，從價格 ASP 的角度來看，我們不假設市場有任何升值。這就是承銷債務的地方。這就是我們在那裡看到的。就價格上漲或我們能夠提高平均售價而言……

[Mortgage and incentive]...

【抵押與激勵】...

Mortgage and incentives and there's a benefit in the financing market, that's just incremental upside to what we view will happen in 2023.

抵押貸款和激勵措施以及融資市場的好處，這只是我們認為 2023 年會發生的情況的增量上行。

Just to emphasize Rick's point, Michael, if you think about mortgage rate buydowns is really being a very effective tool in making sales in this environment. To extent that rates come in the cost of that buy down becomes less expensive and you could see probably potentially the biggest benefit from that, if that come in.

只是為了強調里克的觀點，邁克爾，如果你考慮抵押貸款利率回購確實是在這種環境下進行銷售的非常有效的工具。在某種程度上，利率會降低購買成本，如果出現這種情況，你可能會看到可能從中獲得最大的好處。

So just to be clear then, you're not baking in, obviously, any price appreciation. But on the flip side, you're not baking in any further softening in pricing trends from here on in as well in terms of additional incentives or price discounts needed if the market continues to slip from here?

所以要明確一點，顯然，你並沒有考慮任何價格上漲。但另一方面，如果市場繼續從這裡滑落，你不會考慮從現在開始進一步走軟的定價趨勢以及額外的激勵措施或價格折扣嗎？

That's correct. So we're assuming no price appreciation, no incremental price reductions. We think that the incentives that we've been offering are good, solid incentives and base prices in order to attract the volume. I think you can see that in the numbers that we've been generating. The margin upside throughout the year as we noted in Q1 is going to be the low point is really going to come from several things. One, Jon went through the cost side, Jon went through the cycle time, Stuart talked about land and we're going to continue to value engineer product to the extent that we need to.

這是正確的。所以我們假設沒有價格上漲，也沒有增量降價。我們認為，我們一直提供的激勵措施是良好的、可靠的激勵措施和基本價格，以吸引銷量。我想你可以從我們生成的數字中看到這一點。正如我們在第一季度指出的那樣，全年的利潤率上行將是低點，這實際上來自幾件事。第一，喬恩經歷了成本方面，喬恩經歷了周期時間，斯圖爾特談到了土地，我們將繼續在我們需要的範圍內重視工程產品。

And to the extent that prices curtail a bit more, some of the embedded cost savings are going to be offsets to that. But I think that we've gotten ahead of where prices have been going. And so we're looking at kind of a level field right now.

在價格進一步削減的情況下，一些內在成本的節省將被抵消。但我認為我們已經領先於價格的走勢。所以我們現在正在尋找一種水平場。

Okay. No, I appreciate that. And I guess just secondly, any thoughts around community count growth as the year progresses? I know obviously, there's been movement on the lot side and walking away from different amounts of lots on the option side. But oftentimes that might impact 1 or 2 years out. So any thoughts around where the community count might be by year-end '23 versus '22?

好的。不，我很感激。我想其次，關於社區的任何想法都會隨著時間的推移而增長嗎？我清楚地知道，地塊方面一直在移動，並且在期權方面離開了不同數量的地塊。但通常這可能會影響 1 或 2 年後。那麼，關於到 23 年年底與 22 年年底社區數量可能在哪裡的任何想法？

So we rather not talk about community count right now because it's a very moving picture. You might expect since we renegotiated, repositioned deals that community count could or should grow in the back half of '23. But I think right now, it's just too soon to give any guidance as to what those numbers would be.

所以我們現在不想談論社區數量，因為這是一幅非常感人的畫面。您可能會期望，自從我們重新談判、重新定位交易後，社區數量可能或應該在 23 世紀後半期增長。但我認為現在就這些數字給出任何指導還為時過早。

Okay. Thank you, Mike, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. I know that we went on a little longer than normal, but these are complicated times. It's been a complicated year-end and we want to give a lot of detail. Look forward to reporting back in our first quarter. And if you have further questions, give us a call. Thank you, everyone.

好的。謝謝邁克，也謝謝大家加入我們。我知道我們進行的時間比平時長了一點，但現在是複雜的時期。這是一個複雜的年終，我們想提供很多細節。期待我們第一季度的報告。如果您還有其他問題，請致電我們。謝謝大家。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may disconnect your line, and please enjoy the rest of your day.

今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您可以斷開您的線路，請盡情享受您的一天。