Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc (LECO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Lincoln Electric's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加林肯電氣 2023 年第四季和全年財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話正在錄音。

It is my pleasure to introduce your host, Amanda Butler, Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications. Thank you. You may begin.

我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係與傳播副總裁阿曼達·巴特勒 (Amanda Butler)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Lincoln Electric's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Conference Call. We released our financial results earlier today, and you can find our release and this call slide presentation at lincolnelectric.com in the Investor Relations section.

謝謝你，麗莎，大家早安。歡迎參加林肯電氣 2023 年第四季和全年電話會議。我們今天早些時候發布了財務業績，您可以在 lincolnelectric.com 的投資者關係部分找到我們的新聞稿和此電話會議幻燈片簡報。

Joining me on the call today is Steve Hedlund, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Gabe Bruno, our Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we are happy to take your questions.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是總裁兼執行長 Steve Hedlund；和我們的財務長加布布魯諾。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Before we start our discussions, please note that certain statements made during this call may be forward-looking, and actual results may differ materially from our expectations due to a number of risk factors. A discussion of some of the risks and uncertainties that may affect our results are provided in our press release and in our SEC filings on Forms 10-K and 10-Q.

在我們開始討論之前，請注意，本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能具有前瞻性，並且由於許多風險因素，實際結果可能與我們的預期有重大差異。我們的新聞稿以及 10-K 和 10-Q 表格中向 SEC 提交的文件中討論了可能影響我們業績的一些風險和不確定性。

In addition, we discussed financial measures that do not conform to U.S. GAAP. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures found in the financial tables in our earnings release, which again is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at lincolnelectric.com.

此外，我們也討論了不符合美國公認會計準則的財務措施。非 GAAP 指標與我們收益報告中財務表格中最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的調整表，也可以在我們網站 lincolnelectric.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Steve Hedlund. Steve?

接下來，我會將電話轉給史蒂夫·赫德倫德。史蒂夫？

Thank you, Amanda. Good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 3. I am pleased to report record full year results for our key financial metrics. These results demonstrate the power of our people, products and processes to serve the needs of our customers. They also highlight the benefit of our broad and diverse exposure to different end markets and regions, our prior investments to build an industry-leading automation business and our disciplined capital allocation strategy.

謝謝你，阿曼達。大家，早安。轉向幻燈片 3。我很高興地報告我們關鍵財務指標創紀錄的全年業績。這些結果證明了我們的人員、產品和流程滿足客戶需求的能力。他們還強調了我們對不同終端市場和地區的廣泛和多樣化的接觸、我們之前為建立行業領先的自動化業務而進行的投資以及我們嚴格的資本配置策略的好處。

We generated record sales from solid organic growth and strong performance from our acquisitions. Our automation portfolio sales are now $941 million, and we are on track to exceed our $1 billion 2025 automation sales target ahead of schedule. We achieved record profitability with all 3 segments delivering profit margins within their Higher Standard target ranges, and automation is now at a low teens margin. This improvement reflects operating leverage, diligent price cost management and productivity initiatives.

我們透過穩健的有機成長和收購的強勁業績創造了創紀錄的銷售額。我們的自動化產品組合銷售額目前為 9.41 億美元，預計提前超過 2025 年 10 億美元的自動化銷售目標。我們實現了創紀錄的獲利能力，所有三個細分市場的利潤率都在其更高標準的目標範圍內，而自動化的利潤率目前處於較低的十幾歲水平。這項改進反映了營運槓桿、嚴格的價格成本管理和生產力措施。

We achieved record adjusted earnings performance at $9.41 per share, and our cash flows from operations also accelerated to a record. Higher earnings and improved working capital efficiency delivered a 105% free cash flow conversion to net income. These achievements contributed to record ROIC, demonstrating gains from our strategic initiatives as well as our disciplined approach to capital allocation and our M&A strategy. Heading into 2024, we maintained an investment-grade balance sheet profile with strong free cash flow, which allows us to continue to invest in the business through the cycle while also returning capital to shareholders.

我們實現了創紀錄的調整後獲利業績，達到每股 9.41 美元，我們的營運現金流也加速創紀錄。更高的收益和更高的營運資金效率使自由現金流轉化為淨利潤達到 105%。這些成就促成了創紀錄的投資報酬率，展示了我們的策略性舉措以及我們嚴格的資本配置方法和併購策略所帶來的收益。進入 2024 年，我們保持了投資等級資產負債表狀況和強勁的自由現金流，這使我們能夠在整個週期中繼續投資業務，同時向股東返還資本。

Turning to Slide 4. We are completing the last 2 years of our Higher Standard 2025 Strategy and are on pace to achieve our targets. Looking at the financial metrics, our sales performance is on track, and we will continue to focus on organic and inorganic growth to capitalize on the favorable secular trends, such as the shortage of skilled welders, labor inflation, reshoring, civil and energy infrastructure investments and electrification, all of which create demand for our solutions.

轉向幻燈片 4。我們正在完成「更高標準 2025 策略」的最後兩年，並正在努力實現我們的目標。從財務指標來看，我們的銷售業績步入正軌，我們將繼續關注有機和無機增長，以利用有利的長期趨勢，例如熟練焊工短缺、勞動力通膨、回流、民用和能源基礎設施投資和電氣化，所有這些都為我們的解決方案創造了需求。

Operationally, we will continue to drive continuous improvement throughout the business, enhance our safety and environmental performance and further realize the benefits from investments we have made in shared services, process automation and most recently, centralized global procurement. We are especially focused on improving the margin performance of both our International Welding segment and automation portfolio by 200 to 300 basis points which will bring our 2020 to 2025 average consolidated operating income margin up to 16%, which is our 2025 target.

在營運方面，我們將繼續推動整個業務的持續改進，提高我們的安全和環境績效，並進一步實現我們在共享服務、流程自動化以及最近的集中全球採購方面的投資帶來的收益。我們特別注重將國際焊接業務和自動化產品組合的利潤率表現提高 200 至 300 個基點，這將使我們 2020 年至 2025 年的平均綜合營業利潤率達到 16%，這是我們的 2025 年目標。

We have more opportunity to improve working capital efficiency and bring our average operating working capital to sales performance closer to 15% by the end of 2025. We have made strong progress as inventory levels normalize, and we are pursuing additional initiatives to reposition ourselves as a top decile operator in this area. We are also committed to our balanced capital allocation strategy. Under our Higher Standard Strategy, we've invested over $900 million in growth and have returned approximately $1.2 billion to shareholders. We intend on continuing a balanced approach in the years ahead.

我們有更多機會提高營運資金效率，到2025 年底使我們的平均營運營運資金與銷售業績的比率接近15%。隨著庫存水準正常化，我們取得了強勁進展，並且我們正在採取其他舉措，將自己重新定位為該領域的頂級十分運算符。我們也致力於平衡的資本配置策略。根據我們更高的標準策略，我們已投資超過 9 億美元用於成長，並向股東返還約 12 億美元。我們打算在未來幾年繼續採取平衡的做法。

So as I start my initial year as CEO, I could not be more confident in Lincoln Electric's position entering 2024. We have a strong core business and operational platform and expanding automation portfolio, market-leading innovation and 2 new long-term growth initiatives, additive manufacturing and our DC fast charger, which are both in early commercialization phase and offer attractive long-term upside options for the business.

因此，當我開始擔任執行長的第一年時，我對林肯電氣進入2024 年的地位充滿信心。我們擁有強大的核心業務和營運平台、不斷擴大的自動化產品組合、市場領先的創新和2個新的長期成長計劃，積層製造和我們的直流快速充電器均處於早期商業化階段，可為業務提供有吸引力的長期上升選擇。

Before we turn to fourth quarter results, I would like to thank Chris Mapes for his strong leadership and the Lincoln Electric team for their exceptional work in 2023. I would also like to extend my gratitude to our customers, partners and shareholders, who have put their trust in us and have supported our Higher Standard 2025 Strategy and all who are critical to our success.

在我們討論第四季度業績之前，我要感謝Chris Mapes 的強有力領導以及林肯電氣團隊在2023 年的出色工作。我還要向我們的客戶、合作夥伴和股東表示感謝，他們為我們的發展做出了貢獻。他們對我們的信任並支持我們的 2025 年更高標準策略以及所有對我們的成功至關重要的人。

With that, let's move to Slide 5 to discuss fourth quarter demand trend. We achieved strong sales growth in the fourth quarter to a record $1.1 billion. Organic sales grew 2.6% from solid growth momentum across 4 of our 5 primary end markets and in 2 of our 3 main product categories, led by continued investments in capital equipment across our automation and equipment solutions. Fourth quarter sales were stronger than expected in automation, both organically and from acquisitions as our teams completed projects ahead of schedule while feeling high quoting activity. This has positioned the portfolio for growth in 2024, most likely accelerating in the second quarter based on project timing.

接下來，讓我們轉到投影片 5 討論第四季的需求趨勢。我們第四季的銷售額實現強勁成長，達到創紀錄的 11 億美元。有機銷售額成長了2.6%，得益於我們5 個主要終端市場中的4 個以及3 個主要產品類別中的2 個的強勁成長勢頭，這得益於我們對自動化和設備解決方案的資本設備的持續投資。第四季度自動化領域的銷售額強於預期，無論是有機銷售額還是收購銷售額，因為我們的團隊提前完成了項目，同時感受到了高報價活動。這使得該投資組合能夠在 2024 年實現成長，根據專案時間表，最有可能在第二季度加速成長。

Our consumable organic sales contracted at low single-digit percent rate in the fourth quarter on decelerating industrial production activity in South America, Europe and portions of Asia Pacific. Consumable organic sales were up slightly in North America with choppy order patterns, which we expect to continue in 2024. End market growth broadened in the fourth quarter to 4 of 5 markets or approximately 80% of our revenue exposure. Construction infrastructure led the improvement on strong automation demand and favorable prior year comparisons.

由於南美洲、歐洲和亞太部分地區的工業生產活動放緩，我們的有機消費品銷售額在第四季以低個位數百分比收縮。北美的有機消費品銷售略有成長，訂單模式波動較大，我們預計這種情況將在 2024 年持續。第四季終端市場成長擴大至 5 個市場中的 4 個，約占我們收入的 80%。建築基礎設施帶動了強勁的自動化需求和有利的去年比較的改善。

Energy and general industry sectors both increased mid-teens percent as project activity in midstream oil and gas and empower generation continued to remain strong globally. General industry growth reflects strength in automation demand in the quarter, including the continued success of our Cooper cobots and standardized automation cells. Heavy industry demand remained strong, up low-double-digit percent, primarily from strength in Americas Welding.

由於中游石油和天然氣以及發電項目活動在全球範圍內繼續保持強勁，能源和一般工業部門均增長了百分之十左右。整體產業成長反映了本季自動化需求的強勁，包括我們的庫柏協作機器人和標準化自動化單元的持續成功。重工業需求依然強勁，成長了兩位數百分比，主要得益於美洲焊接的強勁成長。

Automotive continued to contract on challenging prior year comparisons and slower production activity in the quarter. Residential-oriented applications like HVAC in the retail channel, both in our Harris Products Group remain challenged on weak residential sector trends. While a dynamic environment, our diversified end market and regional profile allowed us to successfully navigate through this portion of the cycle and will ensure we capture growth opportunities ahead.

由於與去年相比具有挑戰性以及本季生產活動放緩，汽車產業持續萎縮。面向住宅的應用，例如零售通路中的暖通空調（HVAC），都屬於我們的哈里斯產品集團，仍然面臨住宅業疲軟趨勢的挑戰。雖然環境充滿活力，但我們多元化的終端市場和區域概況使我們能夠成功度過週期的這一部分，並將確保我們抓住未來的成長機會。

I will now pass the call to Gabe Bruno to cover fourth quarter financial results and our 2024 assumptions in more detail.

我現在將致電 Gabe Bruno，詳細介紹第四季度的財務表現和我們 2024 年的假設。

Thank you, Steve. Moving to Slide 6. Our consolidated fourth quarter sales increased approximately 14% to a record $1.59 billion. We recognized a 9.8% increase from acquisitions, which included an approximate 270 basis point benefit from both $15 million of revenue from the extra month of Fori acquisition sales reported in the fourth quarter as well as an incremental $10 million of revenue from projects the automation team completed ahead of schedule.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。轉到投影片 6。我們第四季的綜合銷售額成長了約 14%，達到創紀錄的 15.9 億美元。我們認識到收購帶來了9.8% 的成長，其中包括第四季度報告的Fori 收購銷售額外一個月帶來的1500 萬美元收入帶來的大約270 個基點的收益，以及自動化團隊專案帶來的1000萬美元增量收入提前完成。

Organic sales increased 2.6% from a 2% increase in volumes and 60 basis points of higher price. Foreign exchange translation was favorable by 1.3% versus the prior year.

有機銷售額成長 2.6%，銷售成長 2%，價格上漲 60 個基點。外匯折算比上年有利1.3%。

Gross profit dollars increased approximately 21% or $63 million versus the prior year on higher sales, price/cost management and operational improvements. We recognized a $5.1 million LIFO benefit in the quarter, reflecting the progression of material costs and lower inventory levels. Our fourth quarter gross profit margin increased 200 basis points to 35.1%, with a modest positive price/cost position on a full year basis.

由於銷售額增加、價格/成本管理和營運改進，毛利較上年增長約 21%，即 6,300 萬美元。我們確認本季的 LIFO 收益為 510 萬美元，反映了材料成本的成長和庫存水準的降低。我們第四季的毛利率成長了 200 個基點，達到 35.1%，全年價格/成本狀況處於適度的正值。

Our SG&A expense increased approximately 15% or $25 million. The increase is primarily due to higher incentive compensation and employee-related costs as well as acquisitions. SG&A as a percent of sales was relatively steady at 17.8%. Reported operating income increased 44% to $204 million. Operating income benefited from approximately $22 million of special items from a gain on the sale of property, associated with rationalization activities initiated in Europe several years ago. Excluding special items, our adjusted operating income increased 24% to $182 million. Diligent price cost management, operational improvements and contributions from acquisitions drove profit dollar growth.

我們的 SG&A 費用增加了約 15%，即 2500 萬美元。這一成長主要是由於激勵薪酬和員工相關成本以及收購的增加。 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比相對穩定，為 17.8%。報告營業收入成長 44%，達到 2.04 億美元。營業收入受益於約 2,200 萬美元的特殊項目，這些項目來自幾年前在歐洲發起的合理化活動相關的財產出售收益。不包括特殊項目，我們調整後的營業收入成長了 24%，達到 1.82 億美元。嚴格的價格成本管理、營運改善和收購貢獻推動了利潤成長。

Our adjusted operating income margin increased 140 basis points to a record 17.2%, generating a 28% incremental margin. Our incremental margin reflects price cost management, operational improvements and easier prior year comparisons in International Welding and the Harris Products Group segment.

調整後的營業利潤率成長了 140 個基點，達到創紀錄的 17.2%，利潤率增量達到 28%。我們的利潤增量反映了國際焊接和哈里斯產品集團部門的價格成本管理、營運改進以及更輕鬆的上年比較。

Moving to earnings. Our fourth quarter diluted earnings per share increased 44% to $2.70. Excluding special items, adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 26% to $2.45, which included a $0.02 benefit from favorable foreign exchange translation.

轉向盈利。我們第四季攤薄每股收益成長 44% 至 2.70 美元。不包括特殊項目，調整後稀釋每股收益成長 26%，達到 2.45 美元，其中包括有利的外匯換算帶來的 0.02 美元收益。

Moving to our reportable segments on Slide 7. We Americas Welding sales increased 14% in the quarter from approximately 11% benefit from our automation acquisitions and a 3% increase in organic sales led by volume growth. Acquisition performance exceeded expectations on efficient project execution. We are pleased with the progression of integration activities. Americas Welding 3% organic sales growth reflected a low double-digit percent increase in automation and a mid-single-digit percent rate in equipment systems, reinforcing the continued momentum in capital spending. Consumables were relatively steady in the region due to challenged industrial activity in South America, as Steve mentioned earlier.

轉到幻燈片 7 上的可報告部分。本季度，我們的美洲焊接銷售額增長了 14%，得益於自動化收購的約 11%，以及銷量增長帶動的有機銷售額增長了 3%。收購業績超出了專案高效執行的預期。我們對整合活動的進展感到高興。 Americas Welding 3% 的有機銷售額成長反映了自動化領域兩位數的低成長率和設備系統中個位數的百分比成長率，增強了資本支出的持續動能。正如史蒂夫之前提到的，由於南美洲的工業活動面臨挑戰，該地區的消耗品相對穩定。

Americas Welding segment's fourth quarter adjusted EBIT increased approximately 13% to $130 million. They achieved an adjusted EBIT margin of 18.8% as benefits from effective price/cost management and operational initiatives were partially offset by higher employee costs and lower margin automation mix.

美洲焊接部門第四季調整後息稅前利潤成長約 13%，達到 1.3 億美元。他們的調整後息稅前利潤率為 18.8%，因為有效的價格/成本管理和營運計劃帶來的收益被較高的員工成本和較低的自動化組合所部分抵消。

Moving to Slide 8. The International Welding segment sales increased 20% with approximately 4% higher organic sales. We achieved 5% volume growth from higher automation sales and a mid-single-digit percent increase in equipment. This increase reflects strong project activity in the Middle East, portions of Southeast Asia Pacific as well as pockets of strength in Europe. Consumables declined modestly on challenged industrial activity in Europe and portions of Asia Pacific.

轉到幻燈片 8。國際焊接部門銷售額增長了 20%，其中有機銷售額增長了約 4%。由於自動化銷售額的提高和設備中個位數的成長，我們實現了 5% 的銷售成長。這一增長反映了中東、東南亞太平洋部分地區以及歐洲的強勁項目活動。由於歐洲和亞太部分地區的工業活動面臨挑戰，消費品價格小幅下跌。

Acquisitions contributed 12% sales growth as far as international teams exceeded plan on efficient project completion. Adjusted EBIT increased approximately 88% to $43 million with a 490 basis point improvement in their adjusted EBIT margin to 14.1%. Higher volumes, favorable mix and productivity improvements drove strong margin performance in the segment.

由於國際團隊超出了高效項目完成計劃，收購貢獻了 12% 的銷售成長。調整後息稅前利潤成長約 88%，達到 4,300 萬美元，調整後息稅前利潤率提高 490 個基點，達到 14.1%。更高的銷售、有利的產品組合和生產力的提高推動了該領域強勁的利潤率表現。

Moving to the Harris Products Group on Slide 9. Fourth quarter organic sales declined approximately 3% on 7% lower volumes and 4% higher price performance. Volumes remain challenged on persistently weak residential construction trends. Harris' price performance reflects higher metal costs, primarily from silver and the benefits of prior pricing actions. Fourth quarter adjusted EBIT increased 27% to $15 million. Their adjusted EBIT margin increased 300 basis points to 13.3%. The increase was driven by effective price/cost management and operational efficiencies, which were unfavorably impacted by lower operating leverage from volumes.

轉向幻燈片 9 上的 Harris Products Group。第四季度有機銷售額下降約 3%，銷量下降 7%，性價比上升 4%。由於住宅建設趨勢持續疲軟，成交量仍面臨挑戰。哈里斯的價格表現反映了金屬成本上升（主要來自白銀）以及先前定價行動的好處。第四季調整後息稅前利潤成長 27%，達到 1,500 萬美元。調整後的息稅前利潤率增加了 300 個基點，達到 13.3%。這一增長是由有效的價格/成本管理和營運效率推動的，而銷售的營運槓桿降低對這些因素產生了不利影響。

Moving to Slide 10. Cash flows from operations increased 9% to $122 million with a 68% cash conversion ratio on free cash flow to adjusted net income. Cash conversion is seasonally lower in the fourth quarter due to higher uses of cash for incentive compensation payments. We improved our average operating working capital sales ratio to 17.1% on lower inventory levels.

轉向投影片 10。營運現金流量成長 9%，達到 1.22 億美元，自由現金流與調整後淨利的現金轉換率為 68%。由於更多地使用現金支付激勵薪酬，第四季度的現金轉換季節性較低。在庫存水準較低的情況下，我們將平均營運營運資金銷售比率提高至 17.1%。

Moving to Slide 11. We invested $25 million in CapEx in the quarter, bringing full year CapEx spend to $91 million. We returned $105 million to shareholders in the quarter to approximately $68 million of share repurchases in our higher dividend payout. We generated a record return on invested capital of 24.1%.

轉到投影片 11。本季我們在資本支出上投資了 2500 萬美元，使全年資本支出達到 9,100 萬美元。本季我們向股東返還了 1.05 億美元，在較高的股息支付中回購了約 6,800 萬美元的股票。我們的投資資本回報率達到創紀錄的 24.1%。

Turning to Slide 12 and our full year 2024 assumptions. We remain in growth mode and expect to expand organic sales margins and earnings in 2024. Coming into 2024, we have seen several months of choppy order trends and dynamic operating conditions. Given this environment, we are assuming a more conservative full year 2024 organic sales growth rate range in the low- to mid-single digits, half from volume and half from price. We're assuming continued volume momentum in Americas, partially offset by weakness in Europe, residential construction and in the retail channel. Our team is encouraged by improving PMI trends, elevated quoting activity in automation and growth from our 2023 new product launches.

轉向投影片 12 和我們對 2024 年全年的假設。我們仍處於成長模式，預計到 2024 年將擴大有機銷售利潤率和收益。進入 2024 年，我們看到了幾個月的訂單趨勢波動和動態的營運狀況。鑑於這種環境，我們假設 2024 年全年有機銷售成長率更為保守，處於中低個位數範圍內，其中一半來自銷量，一半來自價格。我們假設美洲的銷售勢頭持續，但部分被歐洲、住宅建設和零售通路的疲軟所抵消。我們的團隊因 PMI 趨勢的改善、自動化報價活動的增加以及 2023 年新產品發布的成長而受到鼓舞。

As we start the year in this first quarter, we are expecting steady to slightly lower sales performance versus the prior year with an inflection to growth in the second quarter as automation sales accelerate towards a seasonally stronger back half of the year. We are continuing to manage to a neutral price/cost position and have taken modest pricing actions in our Welding segment in this first quarter to mitigate inflation. We expect these benefits to fully mature in the second quarter.

隨著今年第一季的開始，我們預計銷售業績將與去年相比穩定略有下降，隨著自動化銷售在下半年加速季節性強勁，第二季將成長。我們將繼續保持中性的價格/成本地位，並在第一季對我們的焊接部門採取了適度的定價行動，以減輕通貨膨脹。我們預計這些優勢將在第二季完全成熟。

Diligent price cost management, combined with operating leverage and continuous improvement initiatives are anticipated to deliver full year incremental margins in the low- to mid-20% range. In the first quarter, we expect an incremental $3 million in corporate expense versus the prior year from long-term incentive compensation costs associated with our CEO transition. We're expecting a consistent interest expense range of $45 million to $50 million and a tax rate in the low- to mid-20% range. We are planning on $90 million to $110 million of CapEx investments to fund both growth initiatives and investments in operational efficiencies.

嚴格的價格成本管理，加上營運槓桿和持續改進計劃，預計全年利潤增量將在 20% 的低至中水平範圍內。在第一季，我們預計與前一年相比，由於與執行長換屆相關的長期激勵薪酬成本，公司費用將增加 300 萬美元。我們預計利息支出將持續在 4,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元之間，稅率將在 20% 的低至中水平範圍內。我們計劃進行 9,000 萬至 1.1 億美元的資本支出投資，為成長計畫和營運效率投資提供資金。

Given expectations of continued strong margin and earnings performance and working capital efficiencies, we are targeting full year cash conversion at 100-plus percent of adjusted net income. Our assumptions do not include contributions from possible upside growth in our 2 newest technology platforms, our DC fast charger, Velion, nor our 3D printing/Additive manufacturing business as we are still commercializing these early-stage growth initiatives.

鑑於對持續強勁的利潤率和盈利表現以及營運資金效率的預期，我們的目標是全年現金轉換率達到調整後淨利潤的 100% 以上。我們的假設不包括我們的2 個最新技術平台、我們的直流快速充電器、Velion 以及我們的3D 列印/增材製造業務可能帶來的上行成長的貢獻，因為我們仍在將這些早期成長規劃商業化。

Overall, we are very confident in our market position and our ability to successfully navigate the year ahead. We have a solid track record of managing and delivering long-term value while remaining agile in the short term. We are excited to capture the many growth opportunities ahead of us and built upon our record results as we progress towards our Higher Standard 2025 Strategy targets.

總體而言，我們對我們的市場地位以及成功應對未來一年的能力充滿信心。我們在管理和交付長期價值方面擁有良好的記錄，同時在短期內保持敏捷。我們很高興能夠抓住擺在我們面前的許多成長機會，並在我們朝著更高標準的 2025 年戰略目標邁進的過程中，在創紀錄的業績的基礎上再接再厲。

And now I would like to turn the call over for questions.

現在我想轉接電話詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question today from Saree Boroditsky, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）今天我們將回答 Jefferies 的 Saree Boroditsky 提出的第一個問題。

So could you provide any details on just how you thought about the guidance for the low to mid incremental margins. I guess I would have thought easier comps from older Fori contracts and potentially less headwinds from Harris, maybe we could have seen some higher incremental margins there. So what are the offsets?

那麼您能否提供任何詳細信息，說明您如何看待中低增量利潤率的指導。我想我會認為舊的福里合約中的補償會更容易，而哈里斯的阻力可能會更少，也許我們可以在那裡看到一些更高的增量利潤。那麼偏移量是多少呢？

So Saree, obviously, it's early in the year. And I mentioned some of the pull forward of activity and automation -- in our automation business in the fourth quarter from Fori. So it's just a conservative posture. We're optimistic of potential short-cycle activity. But being early in the year, we want to keep a conservative posture as we progress.

所以紗麗，顯然，現在是年初。我提到了 Fori 第四季自動化業務中活動和自動化的一些進展。所以這只是一種保守的姿態。我們對潛在的短週期活動持樂觀態度。但在今年年初，我們希望在進展過程中保持保守的姿態。

Conservatism is always good. So you also highlighted some strong growth from capital investments in the quarter. I believe a lot of that came from the backlog, although you did see some positive quoting activity. So just could you expand on what you are seeing or hearing from customers on the capital investment side for 2024?

保守主義總是好的。因此，您也強調了本季資本投資的強勁成長。我相信其中很大一部分來自積壓，儘管您確實看到了一些積極的報價活動。那麼能否詳細介紹一下您從客戶那裡看到或聽到的 2024 年資本投資方面的情況？

Yes. So we've got, as I mentioned and Steve mentioned, a lot of quoting activities. So it's fairly broad-based. Then we think about the strength we saw in general industry, for example, is driven by automation activity. So we're bullish on the level of continued capital investment and that was one of the growth drivers we point to as we progress into this year.

是的。因此，正如我和史蒂夫所提到的，我們進行了大量的報價活動。所以它的基礎相當廣泛。然後我們考慮一下我們在一般工業中看到的優勢，例如，是由自動化活動驅動的。因此，我們看好持續的資本投資水平，這是我們進入今年時指出的成長動力之一。

And Saree, it's not only the quoting activity, but also the order intake on the capital equipment side is signaling to us that people are still spending money to invest in productivity despite the higher interest rates.

薩雷，不僅是報價活動，而且資本設備方面的訂單量也向我們發出信號，表明儘管利率較高，但人們仍在花錢投資生產力。

Next up, we will hear from Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

接下來，我們將聽取布萊恩布萊爾、奧本海默的演講。

I'd love to hear some more about the automation momentum and the outlook growth there against a rather healthy comp was impressive. Also the $940 million or so revenue base, what kind of growth does your team expect in 2024? And then based on backlog order trends, what you see in the project pipeline? How should we think about the end market mix for the strategy going forward?

我很想聽到更多關於自動化勢頭的信息，並且相對於相當健康的競爭，那裡的前景增長令人印象深刻。還有 9.4 億美元左右的收入基礎，您的團隊預計 2024 年會有什麼樣的成長？然後根據積壓訂單趨勢，您在專案管道中看到了什麼？我們該如何考慮未來策略的終端市場組合？

Yes. So Bryan, I would go back and just emphasize for 2023, organic growth in automation was 8%. And so that, coupled with the impact of the acquisition just really postures for strength progressively. So the strength of orders and quoting would lead us to continue to be bullish about the automation growth opportunity in 2024.

是的。所以 Bryan，我想強調一下，到 2023 年，自動化的有機成長率為 8%。因此，加上收購的影響，才真正增強了實力。因此，訂單和報價的強勁將使我們繼續看好 2024 年的自動化成長機會。

Okay. Fair enough. And if we were to net take a very strong quarter and constructive outlook. The trends in consumables being -- having a little bit of compression there, albeit versus an elevated comp. That would be the area. Maybe speak to what you're seeing year-to-date specific to consumables? You mentioned kind of choppy trends in general, expecting flattish Q1 sales, but there's costs optimism on short-cycle activity, and that's understandable. So there any additional color you can offer on the consumable side, it would be great.

好的。很公平。如果我們要獲得非常強勁的季度和建設性的前景。消耗品的趨勢是——儘管相對於更高的補償，但那裡有一點壓縮。那就是這個區域。也許談談您今年迄今為止所看到的特定於消耗品的情況？您提到了總體上的波動趨勢，預計第一季銷售將持平，但對短週期活動的成本持樂觀態度，這是可以理解的。因此，如果您可以在消耗品方面提供任何其他顏色，那就太好了。

Yes. So Bryan, I would add that for the Americas segment for an example. You heard our comments is that when you pull out some of the dynamics in South America, our actual North American business was slightly up in the fourth quarter. So a steady state in our biggest part of our business when you think about the consumables mix in the Americas. So as we start to see and we're hopeful that PMI measures and new orders start to pull forward some short-cycle activity. That's the area that we'll see growth in the consumables side.

是的。布萊恩，我想以美洲部分為例。您聽到我們的評論是，當您提取南美洲的一些動態時，我們的實際北美業務在第四季度略有增長。因此，當你考慮美洲的消耗品組合時，我們最大的業務部分處於穩定狀態。因此，當我們開始看到 PMI 指標和新訂單開始推動一些短週期活動時，我們抱持著希望。這就是我們將看到消耗品方面成長的領域。

So as I mentioned, we have a conservative posture, but as things open up, and we start to see a little bit of expansion in general industry activity, particularly in consumables, that's a potential upside in our business.

正如我所提到的，我們採取保守的態度，但隨著情況的開放，我們開始看到一般行業活動的一點擴張，特別是在消耗品方面，這是我們業務的潛在上行空間。

Next question comes from Mig Dobre, Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的米格·多布雷 (Mig Dobre)。

So just to clarify the discussion on automation. Are we to understand here that automation growth in '24 is going to exceed the low- to mid-single-digit range that you've given overall? And then I guess my follow-up to this, as you think about 2024 and you think about your end markets, where are you seeing growth versus potential contraction like auto for instance, that's been declining here, do you expect that to return to growth? Is there some catch-up in activity that you think you're going to have post strike? And at the same time, heavy equipment, we're hearing from Deere today talking about production cuts, we heard from others. How do you think about that vertical as well?

只是為了澄清有關自動化的討論。我們是否可以理解，24 年的自動化成長將超過您整體給出的中低個位數範圍？然後我想我對此的後續行動，當你想到 2024 年，想到你的終端市場時，你在哪裡看到成長與潛在收縮（例如汽車），這裡一直在下降，你是否預計會恢復成長？您認為罷工後會有一些追趕活動嗎？同時，在重型設備方面，我們今天從迪爾那裡聽到了有關減產的消息，我們也從其他公司那裡聽到了這一消息。您如何看待這個垂直領域？

Yes. So maybe the first part of your question in terms of automation growth, we do expect more accelerated growth in our assumptions as we highlighted for 2024. And if you just think about the mix of our business in 2023, our organic overall was up 4%, and that was with automation being up 8%. So we do expect accelerated growth from automation.

是的。因此，也許你的問題的第一部分是關於自動化成長，我們確實預期我們的假設會加速成長，正如我們強調的2024 年一樣。如果你只考慮2023 年我們的業務組合，我們的有機整體成長了4 % ，而且自動化程度提高了 8%。因此，我們確實預期自動化將加速成長。

When you think about the end markets, you point to automotive, we've had some challenging comps with some large projects in the back half of 2022 versus 2023. So -- but we still feel that we've got a lot of good strong demand on capital investment when you look at both ICE and EV. So we look -- we're bullish around automotive investment. You do point to a few pockets of areas and heavy industries that were more cautious of, whether it's ag or construction. But I think in balance, when you think about the exposure we have in so many end markets, that gives us confidence in the operating assumptions that we provide.

當你考慮終端市場時，你會想到汽車，我們在 2022 年下半年與 2023 年的一些大型項目中進行了一些具有挑戰性的比較。所以，但我們仍然覺得我們有很多優秀的強項當你同時考慮內燃機和電動車時，資本投資的需求。所以我們看好汽車投資。您確實指出了一些更謹慎的領域和重工業，無論是農業還是建築業。但我認為，總的來說，當你考慮到我們在如此多的終端市場中的風險敞口時，這讓我們對我們提供的營運假設充滿信心。

Yes, Mig, I think you summarized it well. As we look at the automation business, we expect continued growth based on the activity we see in the market today. So that would be above the guidance for the overall business. So obviously, there's parts of the business that are lagging. What are those parts? It's early innings in terms of seeing a turn in the macroeconomic indicators, particularly in Europe. So we're cautious on Europe. We're cautious on things that are consumer facing. So the Harris portion from our business that is retail and HVAC focused, we're cautious on that.

是的，米格，我認為你總結得很好。當我們審視自動化業務時，我們預期根據當今市場的活動，我們將持續成長。因此，這將高於整體業務的指導。顯然，部分業務已經落後。這些部分是什麼？宏觀經濟指標（尤其是歐洲）的轉變仍處於早期階段。所以我們對歐洲持謹慎態度。我們對消費者面臨的事情持謹慎態度。因此，我們業務中的哈里斯部分專注於零售和暖通空調，我們對此持謹慎態度。

And then as you pointed out, there are some large end users that are themselves being cautious about their outlook for 2024. And so that just tempers our overall conservatism approach to it. There's still a lot of pressure on our people and our teams to outperform our conservatism. And so we hope that as the global economy starts to accelerate, that we'll see our business improve as well.

然後，正如您所指出的，一些大型最終用戶本身對 2024 年的前景持謹慎態度。因此，這只是緩和了我們對此的整體保守態度。我們的員工和團隊仍然面臨著超越保守主義的巨大壓力。因此，我們希望隨著全球經濟開始加速，我們的業務也會有所改善。

Fair enough. Nobody has the fast charger question yet, and I'm surprised. So I'm going to be the guy to ask it. We are yet to see sort of quantifiable update from you in terms of how this opportunity is evolving. So what should our expectations be in 2024? At what point in time are you going to be in a position where you can provide maybe a little more clarity on this? And maybe your thoughts on it?

很公平。還沒有人提出快速充電器的問題，我很驚訝。所以我將成為提出這個問題的人。我們尚未看到您就這一機會如何演變提供可量化的更新。那麼我們對 2024 年的期望應該是什麼呢？您什麼時候可以對此提供更清晰的資訊？也許你對此有什麼想法？

Yes, Mig. We're still in the commercialization process for this product. We're a new entrant into the market. I think we've done a very good job of cutting through the clutter and a lot of the vaporware that's out in the industry. We are engaged with dozens of large potential customers, all of whom you'd recognize. We're talking to the right people. We're working through their testing and validation protocols. It's a long selling cycle based on the capital spend that they need to make and the potential risk to them of making a wrong decision.

是的，米格。我們仍處於該產品的商業化過程中。我們是市場的新進入者。我認為我們在消除行業中的混亂和許多霧件方面做得非常好。我們正在與數十個大型潛在客戶合作，您都認識他們。我們正在與正確的人交談。我們正在研究他們的測試和驗證協議。這是一個漫長的銷售週期，基於他們需要進行的資本支出以及做出錯誤決定的潛在風險。

So I expect that we'll take the balance of the first half of the year to get through that process, and then we should be able to provide you more clarity on how we think that will ramp up in the second half.

因此，我預計我們將利用上半年的剩餘時間來完成這一過程，然後我們應該能夠向您提供更清晰的信息，讓您了解我們認為下半年將如何加速這一過程。

Chris Dankert from Loop Capital has the next question.

Loop Capital 的 Chris Dankert 有下一個問題。

I guess first off, nice execution on higher standards, so I'm glad you highlighted that. I guess just the one spot that still needs some work, international margin, how much volume do we really need to get that additional 200, 300 basis points? Or how much of this is still kind of inside of Lincoln control, excluding volume here?

我想首先，在更高的標準上執行得很好，所以我很高興你強調了這一點。我想只有一個地方還需要做一些工作，國際保證金，我們真正需要多少交易量才能獲得額外的 200、300 個基點？或者，除了這裡的音量之外，其中有多少仍然是林肯控制內部的？

Well, Chris, I would point to that we executed a 14% in this fourth quarter on the international side. So we're looking to more consistency. So for the full year 2023, we were in the range. So while we point to in the slide deck that we're on average, we're at just over 10%. With current volumes, we're within the range. So improvements in volumes as we continue to shape our business just gives us more confidence that we'll be on the higher end of the range.

克里斯，我想指出的是，我們第四季在國際方面的執行率為 14%。因此，我們正在尋求更高的一致性。因此，2023 年全年，我們都在這個範圍內。因此，雖然我們在幻燈片中指出我們處於平均水平，但我們的比例剛剛超過 10%。就目前的數量而言，我們在範圍之內。因此，隨著我們繼續塑造我們的業務，銷量的提高讓我們更有信心，我們將處於更高端的水平。

And as we continue to navigate things through the longer 2030 strategy that we've spent some time thinking about, we just continue to see improvement in shaping our model. So we're very much comfortable that with existing volumes, we're within that range.

當我們繼續透過我們花了一些時間思考的更長期的 2030 年策略來引導事情時，我們不斷看到我們的模型在塑造方面取得了進步。因此，我們對現有數量處於這個範圍內感到非常滿意。

Understood. I guess the concern I had here, too, as you cited some of the concerns around Europe and maybe just update us on the other international trends kind of year-to-date here been as India and the Middle East held up kind of with what we saw in the fourth quarter.

明白了。我想我在這裡也有擔憂，正如您列舉了歐洲各地的一些擔憂，也許只是向我們介紹了今年迄今為止的其他國際趨勢的最新情況，因為印度和中東的情況我們在第四季度看到了。

Yes. Chris, what we've seen is strength -- continued strength in India and Middle East and energy sectors there just continue to drive strength in the demand profile.

是的。克里斯，我們看到的是實力——印度和中東的持續強勁以及那裡的能源行業繼續推動需求狀況的強勁。

We'll take the next question from Nathan Jones from Stifel.

我們將回答來自 Stifel 的 Nathan Jones 的下一個問題。

I've got a follow-up on the EV charger stuff. I mean you said in response to Mig's question that working through the testing procedures in the first half, potentially could see some ramp-up in the second half of 2024. Did I also hear you say that you've included none of that ramp-up in the guidance in 2024?

我有關於電動車充電器的後續報告。我的意思是，您在回答 Mig 的問題時表示，透過上半年的測試程序，可能會在 2024 年下半年看到一些提升。我是否也聽到您說您沒有包括任何提升 - 2024 年的指導意見會上升嗎？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

And I mean you guys have previously stated that you have $600 million of capacity to sell those EV chargers. Is there any expectation of when you might be at that kind of level? Are we looking at like '25, '26, '27, any kind of expectation for when you think you can get that capacity filled?

我的意思是，你們之前曾說過，你們有 6 億美元的能力來銷售這些電動車充電器。你是否期望什麼時候可以達到那樣的水平？我們是否正在考慮「25」、「26」、「27」等您認為何時可以填滿該容量的期望？

It's really hard for us to forecast that for you, Nathan, in particular, because there are so many factors outside our control and so many factors outside even our prospective customers' control in terms of grid connections and civil construction and permitting and their own capital deployment plans. So it's really premature for us to be able to give you a ramp-up horizon really. I expect that we would know more after the end of the first half as we work our way through this process.

我們真的很難預測你，尤其是內森，因為在電網連接、土木建築、許可以及他們自己的資本方面，有很多因素超出了我們的控制範圍，甚至我們的潛在客戶也無法控制。部署計劃。因此，我們為您提供真正的提升視野還為時過早。我希望上半場結束後我們會在整個過程中了解更多。

We're also fortunate that a lot of these prospective customers are enthusiastic about our value proposition and have asked for us to execute NDAs with them so they can share with us in more detail their capital spending plan. So I'm hoping we will have more visibility later in the year. I just don't have that visibility to share with you now.

我們也很幸運，許多潛在客戶對我們的價值主張充滿熱情，並要求我們與他們簽署保密協議，以便他們可以與我們更詳細地分享他們的資本支出計劃。所以我希望我們在今年晚些時候會有更多的知名度。我只是現在沒有能力跟你分享。

So Nathan, I would add that we just -- we are confident, Nathan, that we're doing all the right things from our products, from a commercialization, from an operating capacity standpoint. So it really is about as Steve's point to, to continuing to nurture the progression of the product offering. And then by second half, be able to give a little bit more insight as to how that's progressing.

因此，內森，我想補充一點，內森，我們有信心，從商業化和營運能力的角度來看，我們正在從我們的產品中做所有正確的事情。因此，正如史蒂夫所說，繼續培育產品的進步。然後到下半年，能夠更深入地了解進度。

And then maybe just one on capital allocation. Leverage is less than 1, strong free cash flow ahead. The automation portfolio has been a priority for capital deployment over the last few years. Do you feel like that portfolio is mostly complete and capital allocation priorities tend to somewhere else? Or is automation still really the outlet for M&A dollars?

然後也許只是關於資本配置的一件事。槓桿率小於1，自由現金流強勁。過去幾年，自動化產品組合一直是資本部署的優先事項。您是否認為該投資組合已基本完成並且資本配置優先事項傾向於其他地方？或者自動化真的仍然是併購資金的出路嗎？

Well, Nathan, as we've talked before, the market is very fragmented. We believe we have lots of opportunities to continue to drive inorganic growth through acquisitions, automation and outside of automation. So we'll continue to prioritize capital allocation through internal investment and acquisitions and then the balance to return cash to shareholders. But we think we have a lot of opportunities, a very robust pipeline of acquisitions that we're actively pursuing.

嗯，內森，正如我們之前談到的，市場非常分散。我們相信，我們有很多機會透過收購、自動化和自動化以外的方式繼續推動無機成長。因此，我們將繼續優先透過內部投資和收購進行資本配置，然後將餘額回饋給股東。但我們認為我們有很多機會，我們正在積極尋求非常強大的收購管道。

And Nathan, I would just add just for clarification, it's not necessarily been that automation has been the priority for M&A. It's just been the most fertile hunting ground for us in the last couple of years. We continue to be very active in the rest of our business and looking for M&A investment opportunities. And as Gabe mentioned, as we sit today, the pipeline looks fairly robust for us. So we're optimistic that we'll be able to deploy the capital effectively and productively, consistent with our capital allocation strategy and our disciplined approach to investment.

內森（Nathan），我只是為了澄清而補充一下，自動化並不一定是併購的優先事項。過去幾年裡，這裡一直是我們最肥沃的狩獵場。我們繼續非常積極地開展其他業務，並尋找併購投資機會。正如加布所提到的，當我們今天坐下來時，管道對我們來說看起來相當強大。因此，我們樂觀地認為，我們將能夠有效且有成效地部署資本，符合我們的資本配置策略和嚴格的投資方法。

We'll now take a question from Walt Liptak, Seaport Research Partners.

現在我們將回答海港研究夥伴 Walt Liptak 的問題。

Can you hear me now?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, Walt.

是的，沃爾特。

So I wanted to ask about the guidance, the low- to mid-single digit. I wonder if you could run through the regions for us? We're seeing some -- hearing about weakness in Europe and some of the international markets. I wonder if you just help us understand what your assumptions are?

所以我想詢問指導，低到中個位數。我想知道你能否幫我們跑遍這些地區？我們看到一些——聽到歐洲和一些國際市場的疲軟。我想知道你是否能幫助我們理解你的假設是什麼？

Well, Walt, typically, we don't give a lot of detail from the full year assumption, but I'll give you a couple of points of color. So we do expect to lead in the Americas side and we have 75% of our automation business portfolio within Americas. So you can see that leading. We do expect continued pressure on residential construction in retail on the Harris side. So we've considered that. And in the international side, just a little bit of pockets of caution in Europe, a continued strength when you think about Middle East and parts of Asia.

好吧，沃爾特，通常情況下，我們不會提供全年假設的很多細節，但我會給你一些亮點。因此，我們確實希望在美洲地區處於領先地位，並且我們 75% 的自動化業務組合位於美洲。所以你可以看到領先。我們確實預計哈里斯方面的零售業住宅建設將繼續面臨壓力。所以我們已經考慮過這一點。在國際方面，歐洲需要一點謹慎，而當你想到中東和亞洲部分地區時，這會持續保持優勢。

Okay. Great. And then Harris, the revenue was down in 2023. But there might be some signs of things are going to start to turn, just so I understand, you're expecting that the volume and price are going to be down in 2024.

好的。偉大的。然後哈里斯，2023 年收入下降。但可能有一些跡象表明情況將開始出現轉變，據我了解，您預計 2024 年銷量和價格都會下降。

We put the volume while being down -- coming into 2024. So that's a bit of caution just on the retail and residential construction. But you're right, as things potentially open up, particularly on HVAC type demand that should be a positive for the Harris segment.

我們預計 2024 年銷量會有所下降。因此，零售和住宅建設方面需要謹慎。但你是對的，因為事情可能會開放，特別是暖通空調類型的需求，這對哈里斯細分市場來說應該是積極的。

Okay. Sounds great. And then I think you've talked a little bit about this or alluded to it, but how is the January and February looking in terms of the trends of orders, et cetera?

好的。聽起來很棒。然後我想你已經談到或提到了這一點，但是從訂單趨勢等方面來看，一月和二月的情況如何？

Well, Walt, as I've mentioned in my prepared remarks, we expect coming into the year, first quarter to be flat to slightly down. It's based on the mix of some of the points that we've highlighted.

嗯，沃爾特，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們預計今年第一季將持平或略有下降。它是基於我們強調的一些要點的組合。

Okay. And if I recall, last year in March, you guys had a strong March. Are we thinking that we're going to see sort of that trend again? We're maybe weaker January, February, then a pickup in March?

好的。如果我記得的話，去年三月，你們度過了一個強勁的三月。我們是否認為我們會再次看到這種趨勢？我們可能一月、二月表現較弱，然後三月有所回升？

Well, that is typical as we go into the spring season to see the strength of the end of the first quarter. But we've built that all in into our considerations of how we're beginning the year.

嗯，這是典型的，因為我們進入春季，看看第一季末的實力。但我們已經將這一切納入了我們如何開始新的一年的考慮中。

We'll take the next question from Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們將回答 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger 提出的下一個問題。

My question is around longer-term customer (inaudible) for automation investment. I think in the past, we've talked about how that's a CapEx decision that slowed down in soft patches. But going forward, do you think that could be more resilient as some customers may be more proactive about investing for productivity through the cycle?

我的問題是關於自動化投資的長期客戶（聽不清楚）。我想在過去，我們已經討論過這是一個在軟補丁中放緩的資本支出決策。但展望未來，您認為這種情況是否會更具彈性，因為有些客戶可能會更積極主動地在整個週期中投資生產力？

Yes, Steve, I would agree with that assessment. And I would base that really just looking at our view of our own operations, right? We continue to be challenged with labor wage inflation. We continue to be challenged with the need to make the hard jobs easier in our factories so we can reduce the demands on our employees. And when you look at the interest rate environment, yes, it's elevated from where it was 2 years ago, but it's not an obscenely high interest rate environment.

是的，史蒂夫，我同意這個評估。我認為這實際上只是看看我們對自己營運的看法，對嗎？我們持續面臨勞動力工資通膨的挑戰。我們繼續面臨著需要讓工廠的艱苦工作變得更加輕鬆的挑戰，這樣我們就可以減少對員工的要求。當你觀察利率環境時，是的，它比兩年前上升，但這並不是一個高得離譜的利率環境。

So a lot of the projects that we look at for our own factory and I'd say in parallel that our customers look for in their factories are still very high-return investments. It's really the ability to absorb those investments into your factory that becomes the rate limiting factor.

因此，我們為自己的工廠尋找的許多項目以及我們的客戶在他們的工廠尋找的許多項目仍然是非常高回報的投資。實際上，工廠吸收這些投資的能力成為了速度限制因素。

Understood. And Steve, I know you're just settling into the role, but are you thinking about any changes to organizational incentives for the sales teams or any other initiatives that you want to pursue? Or do you like how things are organized now and it's running the way you like it?

明白了。史蒂夫，我知道您剛剛適應這個角色，但是您是否正在考慮對銷售團隊的組織激勵措施進行任何改變，或者您想要採取的任何其他舉措？或者您喜歡現在的組織方式以及它按照您喜歡的方式運作嗎？

Well, Steve, there's always room for improvement, right? We have a continuous improvement mindset. So we'll make tweaks to various elements of our organizational model as the business continues to grow and evolve. And in particular, as we look to capitalize more on our global scale and scope, particularly in things like R&D.

好吧，史蒂夫，總是有改進的空間，對吧？我們有持續改進的心態。因此，隨著業務的不斷發展和發展，我們將對組織模型的各個要素進行調整。特別是，當我們希望更多地利用我們的全球規模和範圍時，特別是在研發等方面。

And as I alluded to in my comments, global procurement. But as we sit today, we've got very solid momentum. We've got many opportunities and catalysts for growth in front of us. We've got a strong and experienced team that can capitalize on that. So I really like the position we're in, and it's really just fine-tuning our approach to a few things to enable us to take the next step forward.

正如我在評論中提到的，全球採購。但當我們今天坐下來時，我們的勢頭非常強勁。我們面前有許多成長的機會和催化劑。我們擁有一支強大且經驗豐富的團隊，可以充分利用這一點。所以我真的很喜歡我們所處的位置，這實際上只是對我們的方法進行一些微調，使我們能夠向前邁出下一步。

And next up, we'll go back to Robert Jamieson, UBS.

接下來，我們將回到瑞銀集團的羅伯特‧賈米森。

So just incrementals are really solid. It was above the high end of the guidance you gave for full year '23. Just curious if you could give us or provide us what incrementals would have been ex-Fori and that would just be kind of helpful to kind of gauge how that looks versus what's baked in your guidance for next year?

所以只有增量才是真正可靠的。它高於您為 23 年全年提供的指導的上限。只是好奇您是否可以向我們提供前 Fori 的增量，這將有助於衡量其外觀與您明年指導中的內容相比？

Yes. So Robert, you're right. I mean we did progress strongly on incrementals in this fourth quarter with and without Fori, I think we'd be mid-30s without Fori. But Fori, we just have executed very well. And the assumptions for 2024 being in that low to mid-20s, that's within our traditional range, and that is with the Fori business. We do expect to continue to drive improvements in our operating model for automation business.

是的。所以羅伯特，你是對的。我的意思是，不管有沒有 Fori，我們在第四季度的增量方面都取得了強勁的進展，我認為如果沒有 Fori，我們就已經是 30 多歲了。但是福里，我們執行得非常好。 2024 年的假設是 20 多歲，這在我們傳統的範圍內，而且是 Fori 業務的範圍。我們確實希望繼續推動自動化業務營運模式的改進。

And I'll just remind you that our target is to be at the corporate average for automation. So we ended 2023 in the low teens in the EBIT profile of automation. So when you look at it holistically, 300 basis points of potential there. So we feel really good about our posture coming into 2024 with a continued focus on developing our business model.

我只是提醒您，我們的目標是達到企業自動化的平均水平。因此，到 2023 年結束時，自動化的息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 處於低點。因此，當你從整體上看時，你會發現有 300 個基點的潛力。因此，我們對進入 2024 年繼續專注於發展我們的業務模式的態度感到非常滿意。

That's helpful. And then I guess one last one. I mean, automation, the margins there continued to expand, which is nice to see. I guess can you just talk about some of the drivers that are underlying that? I know a lot of it's probably LBS and some of the initiatives there on efficiency and productivity, but just curious what else you're working on and where you're seeing other benefits?

這很有幫助。然後我猜還有最後一個。我的意思是，自動化，那裡的利潤繼續擴大，這是很高興看到的。我想你能談談一些潛在的驅動因素嗎？我知道其中很多可能是 LBS 以及一些關於效率和生產力的舉措，但只是好奇您還在做什麼以及您在哪裡看到了其他好處？

Yes. So I would point to our Lincoln business system in automation. And it is about that discipline on execution. When we think about Fori, if you remember, we were into low double-digit type of an EBIT profile, and we have a clear line of sight in developing the model that we acquired into our overall automation strategy. So it's about the discipline in managing projects and managing the cost and execution, the labor efficiency, the capacities around the group. So that's the driver. So we will continue to develop capabilities around our Lincoln business system that gives us confidence that we're going to drive to our long-term targets in our automation.

是的。所以我會指出我們的林肯自動化業務系統。這與執行紀律有關。當我們想到 Fori 時，如果您還記得的話，我們的 EBIT 概況為低兩位數類型，並且我們在開發我們獲得的模型並將其納入我們的整體自動化戰略方面擁有清晰的視線。因此，這關係到管理專案、管理成本和執行、勞動效率以及團隊能力的紀律。所以這就是司機。因此，我們將繼續圍繞林肯業務系統開發能力，這讓我們有信心推動自動化的長期目標。

We'll now take a follow-up from Mig Dobre, Baird.

現在我們將聽取 Mig Dobre、Baird 的後續報導。

All right. I figured since this is your first call, Steve, I can't let you get off the hook earlier than normal.

好的。我想既然這是你第一次打電話，史蒂夫，我不能讓你比平常更早擺脫困境。

I thought you want to follow up. I'm surprised you want to use it up so early in our relationship, but that's fine.

我以為你想跟進。我很驚訝你這麼早就想在我們的關係中用掉它，但這沒關係。

All right. I wanted to ask a question about Harris. So you had volume compression in '23 and can you talk about consumer being -- the consumer portion being weak and HVAC being an issue as well. But the margins were actually pretty good, at least relative to my expectation and arguably speaking relative to history, too. So how should we think about this segment going forward? I mean if we're getting back to volume growth, what's the margin potential here? Can we look somewhere above this high 14s, 15s, can this be a high teens margin business?

好的。我想問一個關於哈里斯的問題。所以你在 23 年進行了體積壓縮，你能談談消費者的狀況嗎——消費者部分很弱，暖通空調也是一個問題。但利潤率其實相當不錯，至少相對於我的預期，也可以說相對於歷史而言。那我們該如何看待這個細分市場的未來呢？我的意思是，如果我們恢復銷售成長，那麼這裡的利潤潛力有多大？我們可以看看高於 14 倍、15 倍的高利潤率業務嗎？

Mig, we're very pleased with how our Harris team has developed improvements within our model. And you're right, even despite the softness in volumes, we have held up towards the low end of the range, but you've seen us pushing the high end throughout 2023. So our team is focused on exceeding those ranges. And we're bullish that as we continue to shape our model that, yes, we'll be moving that range in the long-term strategic discussions we're having.

Mig，我們對 Harris 團隊在模型中的改進感到非常滿意。你是對的，儘管銷量疲軟，但我們一直保持在該範圍的低端，但你已經看到我們在 2023 年全年都在推動高端。因此，我們的團隊致力於超越這些範圍。我們樂觀地認為，隨著我們繼續塑造我們的模型，我們將在我們正在進行的長期策略討論中改變這個範圍。

I mean, have you had some structural cost takeout? I mean what happened here to essentially offset the volume compression? That's what I was really kind of trying to get at.

我的意思是，你們有沒有進行一些結構性成本削減？我的意思是這裡發生了什麼基本上抵消了體積壓縮？這就是我真正想要達到的目標。

Yes Mig, the team in Harris has made a number of operational improvements in the business to make us more efficient. I would also point to you that there's different segments within the Harris business and the retail and consumable HVAC portions of the business that were down, tend to be the lower margin drag in that business. So the part that was performing gas equipment tends to be higher margin. So there's some favorable mix in there as well.

是的，米格，哈里斯的團隊對業務進行了許多營運改進，使我們更有效率。我還想指出，哈里斯業務中有不同的細分市場，該業務的零售和消費品暖通空調部分的下降，往往是該業務利潤率較低的拖累。因此，執行燃氣設備的部分往往利潤率較高。所以其中也有一些有利的組合。

And we'll take our final question today from Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

今天我們將回答摩根士丹利安吉爾卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo) 提出的最後一個問題。

This is Grace Song on for Angel. So what drove the sequential increase in acquisition contribution for the international volume business? I think you mentioned those for international, but could you provide more color here? And was it just a onetime thing? And if so, will margins equally come off from the 4Q levels for 2024?

我是《天使》節目中的葛蕾絲宋。那麼是什麼推動了國際批量業務的收購貢獻環比成長呢？我想你提到了國際的那些，但是你能在這裡提供更多的顏色嗎？這只是一次性的事嗎？如果是這樣，2024 年第四季的利潤率是否會同樣下降？

Grace, I want to make sure I understood the question. It seemed to focus on international acquisitions performance. That is driven by our Fori acquisition, as you know, and just very strong execution on projects within the backlog as we ended the year. So those are not onetime types of projects, but they're progressively the execution of outstanding customer projects. So that's just an ongoing development of our international business.

格蕾絲，我想確保我理解這個問題。它似乎專注於國際收購業績。如您所知，這是由我們收購 Fori 以及我們在年底對積壓項目中非常強大的執行力所推動的。因此，這些不是一次性的專案類型，而是逐漸執行的優秀客戶專案。這只是我們國際業務的持續發展。

When you think about the acquisitions, and we expect that Fori will continue to perform well. We did have, as I mentioned in my comments, the 1-month lag we caught up in the fourth quarter, and as I mentioned, $15 million of 1-month lag that we caught up. And I would estimate about 50-50 between international and in the Americas business, but that's a strong performance driven by level of business activity.

當你考慮這些收購時，我們預計 Fori 將繼續表現良好。正如我在評論中提到的，我們確實在第四季度彌補了 1 個月的滯後，正如我所提到的，我們彌補了 1500 萬美元的 1 個月滯後。我估計國際業務和美洲業務之間的差距約為 50-50，但這是由業務活動水平驅動的強勁表現。

And at this time, there are no further questions. I would like to turn the call back to Gabe Bruno for closing remarks.

而此時，已經沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回給加布·布魯諾，讓其致閉幕詞。

I'd like to thank everyone for joining us on the call today and for your continued interest in Lincoln Electric. We look forward to discussing the progression of our strategic initiatives in the future. Thank you very much.

我要感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議，並感謝你們對林肯電氣的持續關注。我們期待討論未來戰略舉措的進展。非常感謝。

Again, that does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。