Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc (LECO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Lincoln Electric 2024 fourth quarter financial results conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加林肯電氣 2024 年第四季財務業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded.

（操作員指示）此通話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions) It is my pleasure to introduce your host, Amanda Butler, Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications.

（操作員指示）我很高興介紹您的主持人，投資者關係和傳播副總裁阿曼達·巴特勒 (Amanda Butler)。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ma'am, you may begin.

女士，您可以開始啦。

Thank you, Janine, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Janine，大家早安。

Welcome to Lincoln Electric's fourth quarter and full year 2024 conference call.

歡迎參加林肯電氣 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議。

We released our financial results earlier today, and you can find our release and this call slide presentation at lincolnelectric.com in the Investor Relations section.

我們今天早些時候發布了財務結果，您可以在 lincolnelectric.com 的投資者關係部分找到我們的發布和本次電話會議幻燈片演示。

Joining me on the call today is Steve Hedlund, Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Gabe Bruno, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長 Steve Hedlund；以及我們的財務長 Gabe Bruno。

Following our prepared remarks, we're happy to take your questions.

在講完我們的準備好的發言後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Before we start our discussion, though, please note that certain statements made during this call may be forward-looking, and actual results may differ materially from our expectations due to a number of risk factors and uncertainties, which are provided in our press release and in our SEC filings on Forms 10-K and 10-Q.

不過，在我們開始討論之前，請注意，本次電話會議中所作的某些陳述可能是前瞻性的，由於許多風險因素和不確定因素，實際結果可能與我們的預期存在重大差異，這些風險因素和不確定因素在我們的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格中有所說明。

In addition, we discuss financial measures that do not conform to US GAAP.

此外，我們也討論了不符合美國公認會計準則的財務指標。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure is found in the financial tables in our earnings release, which again is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at lincolnelectric.com.

我們的收益報告的財務表中列出了非 GAAP 指標與最可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳表，您也可以在我們網站 lincolnelectric.com 的「投資者關係」部分查閱。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Steve Hedlund.

接下來，我將把電話轉給史蒂夫·赫德倫 (Steve Hedlund)。

Steve?

史蒂夫？

Thank you, Amanda.

謝謝你，阿曼達。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Turning to slide 3.

翻到幻燈片 3。

I am pleased to report strong full year results across key financial metrics despite challenging demand trends.

儘管需求趨勢充滿挑戰，我很高興地報告全年各項主要財務指標均表現強勁。

The team did an excellent job staying focused on serving customers and accelerating innovation with one of the largest new product introductions in recent years, along with a solid 50% vitality index of new product sales and equipment.

團隊表現出色，專注於服務客戶，加速創新，推出了近年來最大的新產品之一，新產品銷售和設備活力指數達到 50%。

We also successfully added three acquisitions, which expands our engineering and application expertise further differentiates our technology platforms and will extend our brand in underpenetrated channels in the years ahead.

我們也成功完成了三項收購，擴大了我們的工程和應用專業知識，進一步區分了我們的技術平台，並將在未來幾年在滲透不足的管道中擴展我們的品牌。

Operationally, we continue to drive efficiency improvements, most notably in our automation portfolio and in Harris Products Group, where margins improved over 100 basis points each despite top line headwinds.

在營運方面，我們繼續推動效率改進，最顯著的是我們的自動化產品組合和哈里斯產品集團，儘管營收面臨阻力，但利潤率都提高了 100 個基點以上。

These achievements would not have been possible without the focus and commitment of our global Lincoln Electric team, our distribution partners and our customers who collaborate globally to help build a better world.

如果沒有林肯電氣全球團隊、分銷合作夥伴和客戶的專注和承諾，這些成就是不可能實現的，他們在全球範圍內合作，幫助建立一個更美好的世界。

So thank you.

所以謝謝你。

Turning back to our highlights.

回顧我們的亮點。

We achieved $4 billion in net sales, reflecting manufacturing weakness and deferred capital spending across most end markets and regions.

我們實現了 40 億美元的淨銷售額，反映出大多數終端市場和地區的製造業疲軟和遞延資本支出。

Our automation portfolio achieved $911 million in sales, and the portfolio remains on pace to hit our $1 billion 2025 sales target.

我們的自動化產品組合實現了 9.11 億美元的銷售額，而該產品組合仍有望實現 2025 年 10 億美元的銷售目標。

Despite the 6.5% decline in organic sales, we achieved record profitability with a 17.6% adjusted operating income margin.

儘管有機銷售額下降了 6.5%，但我們仍然實現了創紀錄的獲利能力，調整後營業收入利潤率達到 17.6%。

Both Americas Welding and Harris Products Group outperformed their 2025 higher standard strategy profit margin ranges.

Americas Welding 和 Harris Products Group 的利潤率都超出了其 2025 年更高標準策略的利潤率範圍。

This reflects strong execution of our strategic initiatives, coupled with diligent cost management with approximately $21 million from our targeted saving actions, which outperformed our expectations.

這反映了我們策略性舉措的強大執行，加上勤勉的成本管理，我們從有針對性的節約行動中節省了約 2,100 萬美元，這超出了我們的預期。

We achieved our second highest adjusted earnings per share performance at $9.29 and maintained strong cash flow generation with over 90% cash conversion.

我們實現了第二高的調整後每股收益 9.29 美元，並保持了強勁的現金流生成，現金轉換率超過 90%。

These achievements contributed to strong ROIC performance and a 23% increase in returns to shareholders through a higher dividend payout rate and $264 million in share repurchases.

這些成就促成了強勁的ROIC表現，並透過更高的股息支付率和2.64億美元的股票回購使股東回報率增加了23％。

Heading into 2025, we have a solid balance sheet and ample liquidity and to fund growth investments and continue to return cash to shareholders as we navigate the cycle.

展望 2025 年，我們擁有穩健的資產負債表和充足的流動性，可以為成長投資提供資金，並在周期中繼續向股東返還現金。

Turning to slide 4.

翻到幻燈片 4。

Looking at our interim progress to our higher standard 2025 strategy goals I am very pleased by our performance, which positions us to achieve or even exceed most targets across our financial and sustainability metrics.

回顧我們在實現更高標準 2025 策略目標方面所取得的中期進展，我對我們的表現感到非常滿意，這使我們能夠實現甚至超越財務和永續性指標中的大多數目標。

Looking at financials, our sales growth is pacing within target.

從財務狀況來看，我們的銷售成長正在達到目標範圍內。

Profit performance continues to improve annually, and we have averaged a 15.7% adjusted operating income margin with a 28% incremental margin from 2020 to 2024.

利潤表現逐年持續改善，我們平均調整後的營業收入利潤率為 15.7%，2020 年至 2024 年的增量利潤率為 28%。

We are on track to achieve our 2025 16% average profit margin goal.

我們預計將實現 2025 年 16% 平均利潤率的目標。

This is a 200 basis point improvement of our average operating margin from the prior cycle.

與上一周期相比，我們的平均營業利潤率提高了 200 個基點。

This year's record margin performance in a down cycle reinforces how strong execution of our strategic initiatives will continue to drive margin expansion in the next growth cycle.

今年在經濟下行週期中創紀錄的利潤率表現進一步證明，我們強而有力的策略性舉措執行將在未來成長週期繼續推動利潤率的擴大。

In addition, our working capital efficiency continues to improve as average operating working capital to sales performance advances closer to 15% by the end of 2025.

此外，我們的營運資本效率將持續提高，到 2025 年底，平均營運資本與銷售績效的比率將接近 15%。

We are also committed to a balanced capital allocation strategy.

我們也致力於平衡的資本配置策略。

Under our higher standard strategy, we have invested over $1.3 billion in growth and have returned approximately $1.6 billion to shareholders reinforcing our confidence in cash generation and the sustainability of the business's improved margin profile.

在我們更高標準的策略下，我們已投資超過 13 億美元用於成長，並向股東返還了約 16 億美元，這增強了我們對現金創造能力和業務改善利潤率可持續性的信心。

Moving to slide 5 for year-end demand trends.

前往投影片 5 檢視年終需求趨勢。

Fourth quarter organic sales performance continued to reflect softer manufacturing activity across most end markets, predominantly driven by large OEMs who continue to curtail production levels to rightsize inventories in their dealer channels.

第四季的有機銷售業績繼續反映出大多數終端市場的製造活動疲軟，主要原因是大型原始設備製造商繼續削減產量以合理調整其經銷商通路的庫存。

In addition, we saw ongoing deferred capital spending across large industrial customers, which impacted equipment and automation demand.

此外，我們看到大型工業客戶持續推遲資本支出，這影響了設備和自動化需求。

These declines were further impacted by challenging prior year comparisons in automation sales and energy project activity across Asia Pacific and the Middle East in 2023.

2023 年亞太地區和中東地區的自動化銷售和能源專案活動與去年同期相比面臨挑戰，進一步影響了這些下降。

Consumable demand remained more resilient, aided by strength in HVAC.

受暖通空調市場強勁推動，消耗品需求仍維持較強的彈性。

From a channel perspective, retail continued to grow, and our industrial distribution channel in Americas was more resilient as compared to a low double-digit percent decline in direct OEM sales in the region.

從通路角度來看，零售額持續成長，與該地區直接 OEM 銷售額的兩位數低百分比下降相比，我們在美洲的工業分銷通路更具彈性。

We are encouraged to see the beginning of a pickup in the longest cycle automation projects serving the automotive industry, which should result in continued momentum in capital investments starting midyear for mid- and short cycle projects needed to support upcoming model launches.

我們很欣慰地看到，汽車行業週期最長的自動化項目開始回暖，這將導致從年中開始對支持即將推出的車型所需的中短週期項目的資本投資持續保持增長勢頭。

So as we look ahead to 2025, we are ready to capitalize on growth opportunities and drive margin expansion.

因此，展望 2025 年，我們已準備好利用成長機會並推動利潤率擴大。

And now I'll pass the call to Gabe Bruno to cover fourth quarter financial results and our 2025 assumptions in more detail.

現在我將電話轉給 Gabe Bruno，更詳細地介紹第四季的財務表現和我們 2025 年的假設。

Thank you, Steve.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Moving to slide 6.

移至幻燈片 6。

Our fourth quarter sales declined 3% and to $1.022 billion, primarily from 8.5% lower volumes.

我們第四季的銷售額下降 3% 至 10.22 億美元，主要原因是銷量下降 8.5%。

Pricing was 1% higher, and acquisitions contributed over 5% to sales.

定價上漲了 1%，收購對銷售的貢獻率超過 5%。

Foreign exchange translation had a 1% unfavorable impact.

外匯折算產生了1%的不利影響。

Gross profit dollars held relatively steady at $369 million, which included a $6 million benefit from our savings actions and a $5 million LIFO benefit in the quarter.

毛利保持相對穩定，為 3.69 億美元，其中包括本季來自我們的儲蓄行動的 600 萬美元收益和 500 萬美元的後進先出法收益。

Our gross profit margin increased 100 basis points to 36.1% as effective cost management savings actions and operational efficiencies offset lower volumes.

由於有效的成本管理節約措施和營運效率抵消了銷售下降的影響，我們的毛利率增加了 100 個基點，達到 36.1%。

Our SG&A expense held relatively steady at $187 million as higher SG&A from acquisitions was offset by $13 million in benefits from our savings actions and $7 million in lower incentive costs.

我們的銷售、一般及行政開支保持相對穩定，為 1.87 億美元，因為收購帶來的銷售、一般及行政開支增加被我們節約行動帶來的 1,300 萬美元收益和降低的 700 萬美元激勵成本所抵消。

SG&A as a percent of sales increased 50 basis points versus prior year to 18.3% on lower sales.

由於銷售額下降，銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比比上年增加 50 個基點，達到 18.3%。

Reported operating income declined 13% to $177 million, primarily from lower sales as well as a $5 million rationalization charge and $4 million in acquisition-related items.

報告的營業收入下降 13% 至 1.77 億美元，主要由於銷售額下降以及 500 萬美元的合理化費用和 400 萬美元的收購相關項目。

Excluding special items, adjusted operating income increased 2% to $186 million as our adjusted operating income margin increased 100 basis points to a fourth quarter record of 18.2%.

除特殊項目外，調整後營業收入成長 2% 至 1.86 億美元，因為我們的調整後營業收入利潤率增加了 100 個基點，達到第四季度創紀錄的 18.2%。

Disciplined cost management, savings actions, lower employee costs and strong operational execution in our automation portfolio all contributed to record performance.

我們自動化產品組合中的嚴謹成本管理、節約行動、較低的員工成本和強大的營運執行都為創紀錄的業績做出了貢獻。

The strong execution in our automation portfolio resulted in a 17% EBIT margin, a 200 basis point improvement from the prior year.

我們自動化產品組合的強勁執行力使息稅前利潤率達到 17%，比前一年提高了 200 個基點。

Interest expense net in the quarter increased 31% to $11 million, reflecting our refinancing completed in 2024.

本季淨利息支出成長 31% 至 1,100 萬美元，反映出我們在 2024 年完成的再融資。

Our fourth quarter effective tax rate was 16.1% due to the mix of earnings and timing of discrete items, which compares to 20.5% in the prior year.

由於收益組合和單一項目時間表的原因，我們第四季的有效稅率為 16.1%，而去年同期為 20.5%。

Excluding special items, our adjusted effective tax rate was 16.8% as compared with 19.3% in the prior year.

除特殊項目外，我們的調整後有效稅率為 16.8%，而上年度為 19.3%。

Our full year 2024 adjusted effective tax rate was 20.8%, in line with our full year assumption range.

我們 2024 年全年調整後有效稅率為 20.8%，符合我們的全年假設範圍。

Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share was $2.47. Excluding special items, we achieved a record $2.57 adjusted diluted earnings per share in the quarter, which includes a favorable $0.10 benefit from the lower tax rate partially offset by a $0.02 unfavorable impact from foreign exchange translation.

第四季每股攤薄收益為 2.47 美元。除特殊項目外，我們本季實現了創紀錄的 2.57 美元調整後每股攤薄收益，其中包括較低稅率帶來的 0.10 美元的有利收益，但外匯折算帶來的 0.02 美元的不利影響部分抵消了這一影響。

Moving to slide 7.

移至幻燈片 7。

Our cost savings actions launched in the third quarter have yielded better results than initially estimated due to higher temporary savings in Americas Welding -- as these savings will be largely maintained until demand improves, we are now increasing our annualized savings rate to $60 million to $75 million as compared with our initial range of $40 million to $50 million.

我們在第三季啟動的成本節約行動已取得比最初預期更好的效果，這得益於美洲焊接部門的較高臨時節約額——由於這些節約額將基本維持到需求改善為止，因此我們現在將年度節約額率提高到 6,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元，而最初的範圍是 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。

This increases our quarterly savings run rate to $15 million to $20 million from an initial estimate of $10 million to $14 million.

這使得我們的季度儲蓄率從最初估計的 1000 萬美元到 1400 萬美元提高到 1500 萬美元到 2000 萬美元。

We expect to recognize $40 million to $55 million of incremental cost savings in 2025 before fully anniversary-ing in the fourth quarter.

我們預計，在 2025 年第四季實現全面週年紀念之前，將實現 4,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元的增量成本節約。

Moving to our reportable segments on slide 8.

前往投影片 8 上的可報告部分。

Americas Welding sales held steady versus prior year as an 8% benefit from our Red Viking and Vanier acquisitions and steady price offset 7% lower volumes and a 1% headwind from foreign exchange translation.

美洲焊接業務的銷售額與去年同期相比保持穩定，這得益於我們對 Red Viking 和 Vanier 的收購帶來的 8% 收益以及穩定的價格抵消了 7% 的銷量下降和 1% 的外匯折算阻力。

Persistent weakness in North American manufacturing activity and capital spending as well as a challenging prior year comparison from FRE and the pull forward of automation projects contributed to results.

北美製造業活動和資本支出的持續疲軟、FRE與去年同期相比的挑戰以及自動化項目的提前都對業績產生了影響。

Americas Welding segment's fourth quarter adjusted EBIT increased 2% to $132 million.

美洲焊接部門第四季調整後息稅前利潤成長 2% 至 1.32 億美元。

The adjusted EBIT margin increased 30 basis points to 19.1% as effective cost management, strong execution in our automation portfolio and higher-than-expected temporary cost savings fully offset lower volumes.

調整後的息稅前利潤率增加了 30 個基點，達到 19.1%，因為有效的成本管理、自動化產品組合的強勁執行力以及高於預期的臨時成本節約完全抵消了銷量下降的影響。

Moving to slide 9.

移至幻燈片 9。

International Welding sales declined approximately 17% and 16% lower volumes.

國際焊接銷售額下降約 17%，銷量下降 16%。

Industrial weakness in portions of Europe, Turkey and Asia Pacific were amplified by challenging prior year comparisons from strong project activity and automation demand in 2023.

與前一年相比，2023 年專案活動和自動化需求強勁，進一步加劇了歐洲、土耳其和亞太部分地區的工業疲軟。

Price held steady.

物價保持穩定。

Adjusted EBIT compressed 24% on lower sales, adjusted EBIT margin of 12.8% repositioned the segment back within their higher standard strategy target margin range.

由於銷售額下降，調整後的息稅前利潤壓縮了24％，調整後的息稅前利潤率為12.8％，使該部門重新定位在其更高的標準策略目標利潤率範圍內。

Effective cost management, savings actions and operational initiatives contributed to improved margin performance.

有效的成本管理、節約行動和營運措施有助於提高利潤率。

Moving to the Harris Products Group on slide 10.

前往幻燈片 10 上的 Harris Products Group。

Fourth quarter sales increased 11%, benefiting from higher price and volume growth.

第四季銷售額成長了 11%，受益於價格上漲和銷售成長。

Continued growth in HVAC and an increase in the retail channel offset continued compression from industrial sector applications.

暖通空調系統的持續成長和零售通路的成長抵消了工業領域應用的持續壓縮。

Adjusted EBIT increased 42% to $22 million and achieved a 370 basis point improvement to margin at 17%.

調整後息稅前利潤成長 42% 至 2,200 萬美元，利潤率提高 370 個基點至 17%。

This strong performance is a culmination of effective cost management and the ongoing operational improvements, which have been advancing the business.

這一強勁表現是有效的成本管理和持續的營運改善的結果，從而推動了業務的發展。

Moving to slide 11.

移至第 11 張投影片。

Cash flows from operations were $96 million and $599 million for the full year with a 91% cash conversion ratio of free cash flow to adjusted net income.

全年經營活動現金流為 9,600 萬美元，5.99 億美元，自由現金流與調整後淨收入的現金轉換率為 91%。

Cash conversion is seasonally lower in the fourth quarter due to higher uses of cash for incentive compensation payments as we invested in higher levels of capital spending in the quarter.

由於我們在本季度投資了更高水準的資本支出，用於支付激勵性薪酬的現金使用量增加，因此第四季度的現金轉換率出現季節性下降。

We improved our operating working capital to sales ratio to 16.9%.

我們將營運資本與銷售額比提高至16.9%。

Moving to slide 12.

移至投影片 12。

We invested $31 million in CapEx in the quarter, bringing full year CapEx to $117 million.

我們在本季投資了 3,100 萬美元的資本支出，使全年資本支出達到 1.17 億美元。

We returned $93 million to shareholders in the quarter with $53 million of share repurchases and our higher dividend payout.

本季度，我們透過 5,300 萬美元的股票回購和更高的股息支付向股東回報了 9,300 萬美元。

We continue to generate a solid return on invested capital of 21.8%.

我們持續實現21.8%的穩健投資報酬率。

Turning to slide 13 and our full year 2025 assumptions.

轉到第 13 張投影片和我們對 2025 年全年的假設。

The advancements we have made in the channel, our expanded innovative portfolio and improved cost profile positions us well as we head into 2025.

我們在通路方面取得的進步、我們不斷擴大的創新產品組合以及改善的成本狀況使我們在邁向 2025 年時處於有利地位。

Our initiatives have demonstrated that we can continue to optimize the business, invest in long-term growth and compound earnings through a down cycle.

我們的舉措表明，我們可以繼續優化業務，投資長期成長，並在經濟下行週期實現複合收益。

Given how early it is in the year and pending clarity on the impact of federal policies, including recent tariff actions we are assessing, we are conservatively posturing for low single-digit sales growth in 2025.

鑑於今年尚處於初期，且聯邦政策（包括我們正在評估的最近的關稅行動）的影響尚待明朗，我們保守地預計 2025 年的銷售額將實現低個位數增長。

This contemplates 50 to 100 basis points of positive price starting in the first quarter as we issued price actions in our Americas and International Welding segments earlier this year ahead of any tariffs.

由於我們在今年稍早徵收關稅之前就在美洲和國際焊接部門發布了價格行動，因此從第一季開始價格將出現 50 到 100 個基點的正增長。

We also expect approximately 200 basis points of sales growth from our 2024 acquisitions.

我們也預期 2024 年的收購將帶來約 200 個基點的銷售額成長。

At current foreign exchange rates, we anticipate an approximate 150 basis point unfavorable foreign exchange impact to full year net sales.

以當前外匯匯率計算，我們預計全年淨銷售額將受到約 150 個基點的不利外匯影響。

This cautious outlook does not contemplate volume growth.

這種謹慎的展望並未考慮到銷售量的成長。

We expect first half volume performance to be more challenged versus the back half given lower production levels among heavy industry and automotive OEMs, soft manufacturing activity across key regions and expectations for slower automation sales through the second quarter as previously discussed.

我們預計上半年的銷售表現將比下半年面臨更大的挑戰，因為重工業和汽車原始設備製造商的生產水平較低、主要地區的製造業活動疲軟，以及預計第二季度自動化銷售將放緩（如前所述）。

This is likely to equate to a low single-digit percent decline in volumes for the full year with Americas Welding and Harris being the most resilient.

這可能相當於全年銷量出現低個位數百分比下降，其中美洲焊接公司和哈里斯公司的恢復能力最強。

Despite challenging end market conditions, we expect a low 20% incremental margin rate with modest earnings growth.

儘管終端市場條件嚴峻，我們預期增量利潤率將維持在 20% 的低位，獲利將保持適度成長。

We will continue to benefit from diligent cost management, an incremental $40 million to $55 million from our savings actions and our business units are continuing to pursue operational improvements through local and enterprise level initiatives.

我們將繼續受益於勤勉的成本管理，我們的節約行動將帶來 4,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元的增量成本，而且我們的業務部門將繼續透過地方和企業級措施來追求營運改善。

We estimate interest expense net at $45 million to $50 million and an effective tax rate in the low to mid-20% range.

我們估計淨利息支出為 4,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元，有效稅率在 20% 至 20% 的中低範圍內。

We are budgeting $100 million to $120 million of CapEx investments to fund growth and operational efficiencies.

我們預算 1 億至 1.2 億美元的資本支出投資來資助成長和營運效率。

We are anticipating full year cash conversion at 90%-plus of adjusted net income.

我們預計全年現金轉換率將佔調整後淨收入的 90% 以上。

Again, our full year assumptions do not include the impact of pending tariffs.

再次強調，我們的全年假設並不包括即將徵收的關稅的影響。

Our team is currently assessing the potential impact from trade and tariff headlines, and we will leverage our agile supply chain and issue new pricing actions to offset any margin impact as we have done successfully in prior inflationary periods.

我們的團隊目前正在評估貿易和關稅新聞的潛在影響，我們將利用我們靈活的供應鏈並採取新的定價行動來抵消任何利潤影響，就像我們在先前的通膨時期成功做到的那樣。

Overall, we are very confident in our ability to successfully navigate the year ahead.

整體而言，我們對成功度過未來一年的能力充滿信心。

Our customer-first approach innovation pipeline and focus on staying agile to capitalize on growth opportunities and optimize operations will continue to drive superior value as we complete the final year of our higher standard 2025 strategy.

隨著我們完成更高標準 2025 策略的最後一年，我們以客戶為先的創新管道和專注於保持敏捷以利用成長機會和優化營運的做法將繼續推動卓越的價值。

And now I would like to turn the call over for questions.

現在我想將電話轉交給大家提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

This is actually Stefan Diaz.

這其實是史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

I'm sitting in for Angel.

我正在代替安吉爾。

Maybe to start, can you just talk about your Welding business in a bit more detail as it pertains to competitive dynamics?

首先，您能否從競爭動態的角度更詳細地談談您的焊接業務？

I believe at a high level, it looks like your organic growth in Welding has lagged your biggest direct competitor for the last four quarters, which seems to be a reversal of trends seen in 2022 and 2023.

我認為，從總體來看，你們在焊接領域的有機成長似乎在過去四個季度中落後於你們最大的直接競爭對手，這似乎與 2022 年和 2023 年的趨勢相反。

Obviously, end market mix and geographic mix can sort of cause divergence.

顯然，終端市場組合和地理組合可能會導致分歧。

But basically, any insight into what might be causing organic growth underperformance versus peers?

但基本上，對於導致有機成長表現不如同業的原因，有任何見解嗎？

And whether you've seen any shift in competitive dynamics and in that business would be helpful.

而您是否看到競爭態勢和業務發生任何轉變都會很有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

So Stefan, let me just kind of highlight some of the key differences in our business model.

那麼史蒂芬，讓我重點介紹一下我們的商業模式中的一些主要差異。

So first, I'd point to our automation business.

首先，我想談談我們的自動化業務。

So when we talk about the mix of automation now we're pushing $1 billion in revenues, largely invested in heavy industries and automotive in that.

因此，當我們談論自動化組合時，我們現在正在推動 10 億美元的收入，主要投資於重工業和汽車產業。

So you've got to consider that dynamic separate from the other large two competitors in our industry.

因此，你必須將這種動態與我們產業中的另外兩大競爭對手區分開來。

We're pleased with the progression of our automation business.

我們對自動化業務的進展感到非常滿意。

I pointed to 200 basis points of improvement and overall EBIT margins.

我指出了 200 個基點的改善和整體息稅前利潤率。

While we pointed to continued softness in capital investment in our automation business was down mid-teens, but we're starting to see some strength in some of the longer-term drivers to orders.

雖然我們指出，我們的自動化業務的資本投資持續疲軟，下降了百分之十幾，但我們開始看到一些長期訂單驅動因素有所增強。

So that's positive.

這是積極的。

I'd also point to the mix of our business between our international and Americas scope.

我還想指出我們的業務範圍是國際範圍和美洲範圍的結合。

We did mention that on the distribution side in Americas, we held pretty well, we were down single digits.

我們確實提到，在美洲的分銷方面，我們表現得相當不錯，僅下降了個位數。

So the mix of business has a relevant difference in how each of the models are structured.

因此，業務組合在各個模型的結構方式上有相應差異。

Large part of OEMs are tied into heavy industries and automotive investment and demand, and that's the kind of mix that you see progressively in our business.

大部分 OEM 都與重工業和汽車投資及需求息息相關，而這正是您在我們的業務中逐漸看到的那種組合。

Just to echo Gabe's comments that really, when we look at the business portfolio, there is a significant difference in channel mix in the US.

只是為了呼應 Gabe 的評論，當我們查看業務組合時，會發現美國的通路組合有顯著差異。

So we have a much stronger concentration of business with OEMs than some of our competitors do.

因此，我們與 OEM 的業務集中度比我們的一些競爭對手高得多。

And what we mentioned earlier on the call that we see a disparate impact of OEM demand versus the distribution channel.

我們之前在電話會議上提到，我們看到 OEM 需求與分銷管道的影響不同。

So that has an impact on the business.

所以對業務有影響。

And then within international, the relative mix of our business in places like Europe where we have very challenging market conditions versus India, Middle East and other places, South America that are growing more rapidly I think that's what presents some of the challenges for us in looking at the comps versus the other leading competitors.

在國際範圍內，我們的業務相對分佈在歐洲等地，那裡的市場條件非常具有挑戰性，而印度、中東和其他地方以及南美洲的增長速度更快，我認為這就是我們在與其他主要競爭對手進行比較時面臨的一些挑戰。

I will add that we are very closely engaged with the majority of our customers, both at an end user and at a distributor level and do not believe that we're losing share.

我要補充一點，我們與大多數客戶（包括最終用戶和分銷商）都保持著密切的聯繫，我們不認為我們的份額正在下降。

In fact, if we look at the distribution channel in the Americas, we believe we're gaining share.

事實上，如果我們看看美洲的分銷管道，我們相信我們的份額正在增加。

Great.

偉大的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then maybe as a follow-on, what does your guidance assume for first quarter organic sales by segment?

然後也許作為後續問題，您對第一季各部門有機銷售額的預期是什麼？

I know you went a little bit into first half versus second half dynamics, but any additional color you could provide there would be helpful.

我知道您對上半場與下半場的動態進行了一些探討，但如果您能提供任何額外的細節將會很有幫助。

Yes, Stefan.

是的，史蒂芬。

So we don't provide that level of detail by segment in our comments, in the assumptions that we shared -- but I would point to that we would expect for the first half of the year, more pressure on volumes.

因此，在我們的評論中，在我們分享的假設中，我們不會提供按部分劃分的詳細資訊 - 但我想指出的是，我們預計今年上半年的銷售壓力會更大。

So I would point to low single-digit declines progressively in this first half of the year until we start to anniversary some of the dynamics that we experienced, particularly in heavy industries and automotive in the back half of the year.

因此，我想指出，今年上半年的降幅將逐漸縮小，直到我們開始回顧所經歷的一些動態，特別是下半年重工業和汽車產業的動態。

Saree Boroditsky, Jefferies.

薩裡‧博羅迪茨基 (Saree Boroditsky)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

This is James on for Saree.

這是詹姆斯 (James) 為紗麗所作的。

I wanted to kind of touch on the -- like the outlook, the flat organic sales growth.

我想談談前景，平穩的有機銷售成長。

Can you kind of provide more color on your expectation by end markets and how you're thinking about the contribution from like consumables, equipment and automation.

您能否詳細介紹一下您對終端市場的預期，以及您如何看待消耗品、設備和自動化等的貢獻。

Yes, James.

是的，詹姆斯。

So let me just kind of give really high-level comments on the trajectory of how we see our business.

所以，請容許我針對我們如何看待我們的業務發展軌跡給予一些非常高層次的評論。

You saw that in the -- we ended the year with General Industries down mid-single digits.

你們看到了——我們在年底通用工業的營收下降了中等個位數。

We do point to -- it was good to see PMI turned positive in January, but we need to see more trajectory there before we can anchor on a consistent trend.

我們確實指出——1 月 PMI 轉為正值是件好事，但我們需要看到更多的走勢，才能確定一個一致的趨勢。

So as we've talked in general, we do expect volumes to be more compressed in the first half of the year and then flattening out in the back half of the year.

因此，正如我們總體談論的那樣，我們確實預計今年上半年的交易量會更加緊張，而下半年的交易量將趨於平穩。

Gen Industry, you can see -- continue to see probably that low to mid-single-digit type perspective.

您可以看到，對於 Gen 行業來說，可能仍會繼續看到低至中等個位數類型的前景。

On the automotive side, I would expect a little bit more stability on the consumables side of the business and then continued pressure on the capital investment side of automotive.

在汽車方面，我預期業務的消耗品方面會更加穩定，而汽車資本投資方面則會繼續面臨壓力。

I would point to so while broadly, we were down mid-teens percent in the fourth quarter.

我想指出的是，雖然總體而言，我們在第四季的銷售額下降了百分之十幾。

I would look to that to moderate somewhat as we progress throughout the year.

我希望隨著全年的進展，這種情況會有所緩和。

Heavy Industries, we were down low double digit for the fourth quarter, and that's driven by what we all read about in terms of what's going on in ag and construction.

重工業，我們第四季度的銷售額下降了兩位數，這是由我們都了解的農業和建築業的情況所驅動的。

We expect that to continue in the same levels that we saw.

我們預計這一情況將持續維持在目前的水平。

Fourth quarter actually lined up pretty closely to the third quarter.

第四季度實際上與第三季度非常接近。

So I would continue to expect pressure in the first half of the year and then flattish type of outlook in heavy industries.

因此，我仍預計今年上半年重工業將面臨壓力，隨後前景將趨於穩定。

Energy.

活力。

Energy was down low 20% in Q4.

第四季能源價格下跌了 20% 左右。

We're bullish on energy prospectively.

我們對能源前景持樂觀態度。

But I would expect for the full year to be into a positive range for the full year.

但我預計全年業績將處於正範圍內。

And then lastly, Construction & Infrastructure, that was down mid-teens.

最後，建築和基礎設施行業下降了 15% 左右。

That's a choppy part of our business.

這是我們業務中不穩定的部分。

So again, I would expect to see some pressure in that part of the market as we progress the year, I would look to low maybe mid-single digit down in that part of the market.

因此，我再次預計，隨著時間的推移，該部分市場將面臨一些壓力，我預計該部分市場的降幅將達到低至個位數的中位數。

Great.

偉大的。

That's a great color.

真漂亮的顏色。

It's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And I guess just wanted to touch on the what is it industrial OEM cautiousness here.

我想只是想談談這裡的工業 OEM 謹慎性是什麼。

I think we're kind of seeing like cautious optimism like with the new administration, like but there are still many uncertainties.

我認為我們看到了新政府的謹慎樂觀態度，但仍有許多不確定性。

So can you provide more insight on what you're hearing from like industrial OEM customers after the new admin took office?

那麼，您能否就新政府上任後您從工業 OEM 客戶那裡聽到的更多消息提供更多見解？

And when do you expect OEM business to trend with the distribution channel?

您預計 OEM 業務何時會與分銷管道一起發展？

James, it's very early for us to have a definitive position on it.

詹姆斯，現在我們無法就此得出明確的結論。

I would point to the fact that the PMI recently turned positive in the US market is an encouraging sign, but you have really the wildcard of trade policy and the potential impact as highly integrated as supply chains are in North America, if we do move forward with significant tariffs and we get into retaliatory tariffs between the US, Canada and Mexico, that really presents a wildcard that's difficult to plan around at this point in time.

我想指出的是，美國市場的 PMI 最近轉為正值，這是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，但貿易政策的不確定性以及由於北美供應鏈高度一體化而產生的潛在影響確實存在，如果我們確實實施大幅關稅，並且美國、加拿大和墨西哥之間出現報復性關稅，那麼這確實是一個難以在當前時刻製定計劃的不確定性因素。

So as we mentioned during our prepared remarks, our watchword for the organization is agility and to respond quickly to those challenges, but it's very hard to have a crystal ball as to how this is all going to play out.

因此，正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們組織的口號是敏捷并快速應對這些挑戰，但很難預測這一切將如何發展。

Mike Dugan, Barrick.

巴里克的邁克·杜根。

It's Jo Grabowski on for Mike this morning.

今天早上由喬·格拉博斯基 (Jo Grabowski) 代替邁克 (Mike) 主持。

I just wanted to get a little bit more color on the green shoots you're seeing in the automation order trends -- and then it seems like if automation is going to get to $1 billion this year, that would imply at least modest organic growth for the year.

我只是想對您在自動化訂單趨勢中看到的綠芽進行更詳細的了解——然後看起來，如果自動化今年能達到 10 億美元，那就意味著今年至少會實現適度的有機增長。

I just wanted to confirm that is true.

我只是想確認這是真的。

So just kind of a little more color on what you're seeing in automation.

因此，我們對自動化領域所見的內容有了更深入的了解。

Yes, particularly the long cycle part of our business, which we think of as primarily 4E, but some of the organic business that we had historically is focused on very long project cycles that are tied to model changeovers and refreshes in the automotive industry.

是的，特別是我們業務的長週期部分，我們將其主要視為 4E，但我們歷史上的一些有機業務集中於與汽車行業的模型轉換和更新相關的非常長的項目週期。

And as we were talking about six months ago, we were starting to see some indecisiveness in our customers around which projects they wanted to move forward with in what sequence, responding really to the changing market demand for electric vehicles and the balance of EV versus hybrid versus ice projects.

正如我們六個月前所說的那樣，我們開始發現客戶對於他們想要按照什麼順序推進哪些項目感到猶豫不決，這實際上是在響應電動汽車市場需求的變化以及電動汽車、混合動力汽車和冰上項目的平衡。

We're now starting to see customers make those decisions and release projects to us, which is encouraging for us in terms of the long-cycle nature of the business.

我們現在開始看到客戶做出這些決定並向我們發布項目，這對我們業務的長週期性質而言是令人鼓舞的。

And we expect the mid- and short cycle portions to improve somewhat through the course of the year.

我們預計中周期和短週期部分將在今年有所改善。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then my follow-up question, I wondered if you could tell us a little more about the $5 million to $7 million of quarterly permanent cost savings, considering you've got flat organic sales guidance for the year, maybe give us a little color there and how it positions the company for the next demand upturn.

然後我的後續問題是，考慮到您今年的有機銷售預期持平，我想知道您是否可以告訴我們更多關於 500 萬至 700 萬美元季度永久性成本節約的信息，也許可以給我們提供一些信息，以及它如何為公司在下一次需求好轉時做好準備。

Yes.

是的。

So Joe, I would just emphasize that the permanent cost actions that we take, there are actions that structurally shape our business.

所以喬，我只想強調，我們採取的永久性成本行動從結構上塑造了我們的業務。

And these are ongoing opportunities for us to continue to develop our business model.

這些都是我們持續發展商業模式的持續機會。

And so those are examples that we've done over the years that have yielded an improvement in our operating margin profile.

這些都是我們多年來所做的例子，這些例子已經使我們的營業利潤率狀況得到了改善。

So Steve's commented on is during the current strategy cycle, we've increased our operating margins on average by 200 basis points.

史蒂夫評論說，在當前策略週期內，我們的營業利潤率平均提高了 200 個基點。

So those are permanent changes in our model that give us confidence that we'll continue to build out the operational model to value proposition that we've consistently expanded on throughout cycles.

因此，這些都是我們模型的永久性變化，這些變化使我們有信心繼續建立營運模型，以實現我們在整個週期中不斷擴展的價值主張。

Yes.

是的。

I would think about some of the permanent savings as being things like manufacturing footprint optimization as we look to better utilize the footprint that we have and continue some of the evolution of our European business from Western Europe to Eastern Europe manufacturing.

我認為一些永久性的節約是諸如製造足跡優化之類的事情，因為我們希望更好地利用我們現有的足跡，並繼續將我們的歐洲業務從西歐製造轉向東歐製造。

And as we look at the automation business, being able to more effectively share work across sites so we can improve our utilization of those facilities.

當我們審視自動化業務時，我們能夠更有效地跨站點共享工作，從而提高這些設施的使用率。

Those combined with looking at some of the spans and layers in our organization and trying to get leaner and more efficient.

這些與我們組織中的一些跨度和層次相結合，試圖變得更加精簡和高效。

Those are the things that yield permanent cost savings that should not impact our ability to respond to a market rebound in demand.

這些都可以帶來永久性的成本節約，並且不會影響我們應對市場需求反彈的能力。

And then on the temporary side, you have things like projects and travel and discretionary spending where we just decide we're going to take a pause.

而在臨時方面，我們會因為專案、旅行和可自由支配的開支等事情而決定暫停。

We know that some of those costs will come back into the business when demand improves.

我們知道，當需求改善時，部分成本將會重新回到企業。

But during a down cycle, we go through a belt tightening process around the things that we can control.

但在經濟低迷時期，我們會對可以控制的事情進行縮減。

Nathan Jones, Stifel.

內森瓊斯（Nathan Jones），斯蒂費爾（Stifel）。

I'm going to start on the tariff question.

我將開始討論關稅問題。

And obviously, nobody knows what's going to happen from here, but Lincoln and the industry have been through many inflationary periods before and the industry and Lincoln have a very good track record of passing increased costs through to customers.

顯然，沒有人知道接下來會發生什麼，但林肯和整個行業之前已經經歷過許多通貨膨脹時期，整個行業和林肯在將增加的成本轉嫁給客戶方面有著非常好的記錄。

During COVID, Lincoln not only passed the cost increases, but also did it with the gross margin on top of it and talked about being gross margin neutral during that inflationary period.

在疫情期間，林肯不僅轉嫁了成本上漲，而且還在毛利率的基礎上實現了轉嫁，並表示在通膨時期保持毛利率中性。

So I guess my question is if we do see inflation caused by tariffs, would it be your perspective that you'll pass that through on a dollar-to-dollar basis, you'll be able to pass it through with the margin on it.

所以我想我的問題是，如果我們確實看到關稅導致的通貨膨脹，您是否認為您會以一美元對一美元的方式將其轉嫁出去，您是否能夠通過其中的利潤將其轉嫁出去。

The markets are in a little bit different position than they were during COVID,obviously.

顯然，目前的市場狀況與新冠疫情期間略有不同。

So just any color you could give us on how you think the business will be able to react in terms of neutral at margins, neutral EPS.

因此，您可以向我們提供任何細節，說明您認為企業將如何對利潤率和每股盈餘做出反應。

Yes.

是的。

Nate, I'm disappointed you weren't going to give us some clarity on the tariffs.

內特，我很失望你沒能向我們澄清關稅問題。

I thought given your opening preamble, I thought you were going to instruct us.

我以為，根據你的開場白，你會指導我們。

But I would say, look, Nate, our job as management is to grow the business and expand margins over the cycle.

但我想說，內特，你看，身為管理階層，我們的工作是在整個週期中發展業務、擴大利潤率。

We've got many different levers for doing that.

我們有很多不同的手段來實現這一點。

When we think about margin, there's productivity initiatives that we're driving through the business.

當我們考慮利潤時，我們會在整個業務中推動生產力舉措。

There's innovation and there's managing price cost.

有創新，也有管理價格成本。

And we've got a very good track record of being diligent in managing price costs so that we protect the profitability of the business.

我們在管理價格成本方面有著良好的記錄，從而保護了業務的獲利能力。

We don't like to rely on price.

我們不喜歡依賴價格。

It's very disruptive to our customers and to the market.

這對我們的客戶和市場造成了極大的破壞。

One of the concerns that we have as we look forward is to the degree that the tariffs get piled on tariffs and we get into a tit for tat situation.

我們擔心的一個問題是，關稅會否越來越高，導致雙方陷入針鋒相對的局面。

As widgets get more expensive, people tend to buy less widgets.

隨著小部件變得越來越昂貴，人們傾向於購買更少的小部件。

So there's volume impact to it.

因此，這會對數量產生影響。

So we're not eager to jump on the price lever, but it's a lever we'll pull when we have to.

因此，我們並不急於利用價格槓桿，但在必要時，我們就會利用它。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And I have no insight into what's going to happen.

而我對接下來會發生什麼事卻毫無頭緒。

I'm not that smart.

我沒那麼聰明。

I guess a question on M&A.

我想這是一個關於併購的問題。

The balance sheet is obviously in pretty good shape.

資產負債表顯然狀況良好。

And you talked about new acquisitions as a potential for upside.

您談到了新收購帶來的上升潛力。

The business over the last few years is concentrated on acquisitions in automation.

過去幾年的業務主要集中在自動化領域的收購。

You maybe potentially built that business out to where you want it to be.

您或許可以將這項業務拓展到您想要的水平。

So I guess the question is, is automation still a big focus for acquisitions?

所以我想問題是，自動化是否仍是收購的重點？

Or have you moved strategically to some kind of other part of the business?

或者您已經策略性地轉向了其他業務領域？

Yes.

是的。

Nate, I would just clarify that the entire business portfolio has always been the focus for us for acquisitions.

內特，我只想澄清一下，整個業務組合一直是我們收購的重點。

And you saw last year, we acquired the Van Air business to improve our position in the work truck channel, which we saw as a critical route to market where we were not as strong as we would like to be from a core business standpoint, we've done acquisitions in the past to support the expansion of the Harris Products Group business in HVAC.

正如您所看到的，去年我們收購了 Van Air 業務，以提高我們在工作卡車管道中的地位，我們認為這是一條關鍵的市場途徑，從核心業務的角度來看，我們在該市場中並不像我們所希望的那樣強大，我們過去曾進行過收購以支持 Harris Products Group 在 HVAC 領域的業務擴張。

So it's not that we've been solely focused on automation.

因此，我們並不僅僅專注於自動化。

It's been a more productive hunting ground for us in the last couple of years just due to the fragmented nature of that industry.

由於該行業的分散性，過去幾年它對我們來說已經成為一個更俱生產力的狩獵場。

And we continue to look for investment opportunities in automation so we can continue to expand the types of solutions that we provide to our customers and grow the addressable market for us.

我們將繼續尋找自動化領域的投資機會，以便我們能夠繼續擴大我們為客戶提供的解決方案類型，並擴大我們的潛在市場。

So I think we'll -- you'll continue to see more of the same from us.

所以我認為我們會——你們將繼續看到我們做出更多相同的舉措。

Just to add, Nathan, and you know what our long-term objectives are and we've been very much aligned to that is to drive long-term sales CAGR at 300 to 400 basis points.

補充一下，內森，你知道我們的長期目標是什麼，我們一直非常重視這個目標，那就是推動長期銷售複合年增長率達到 300 到 400 個基點。

So we have a very disciplined acquisition strategy, and we'll continue to maintain that posture.

因此，我們有一個非常嚴謹的收購策略，我們將繼續保持這種態勢。

Walt Liptak, Seaport Research Partners.

沃爾特·利普塔克（Walt Liptak），海港研究合作夥伴。

Let me try one on the tariffs too.

讓我也試試看關稅。

I think everyone's trying to figure out how these tariffs could impact the business in 2025.

我想每個人都在試圖弄清楚這些關稅將如何影響 2025 年的業務。

But what are your customers saying?

但你的客戶怎麼說？

Do you think they've slowed demand?

您認為他們已經減緩需求了嗎？

Does it look like the funnel is building are going to move some of these projects forward?

看起來正在建立的管道會推動其中一些項目向前發展嗎？

I guess what are the customers saying and maybe around the channel inventory, too, usually, I think, see some seasonal channel inventory build going into the construction season.

我猜想客戶會怎麼說，也許圍繞渠道庫存也是如此，通常，我認為，在建築季節會看到一些季節性渠道庫存的建立。

Yes.

是的。

Walt, what I would say is the customer leadership that I talked to is doing the same thing I'm doing, which is we're glued to Twitter, waiting for the next announcement of a tariff policy.

沃爾特，我想說的是，我與之交談過的客戶領導層正在做和我同樣的事情，那就是我們都盯著推特，等待下一次關稅政策的公告。

The challenge for us is that it's incredibly dynamic.

我們面臨的挑戰是它極具活力。

As you know, we announced -- or Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico week or 10 days ago, we were gearing up to have a response to that and then immediately, they were paused for 30 days.

如你所知，我們宣布——或者說川普一周或十天前宣布對加拿大和墨西哥徵收 25% 的關稅，我們正準備對此作出回應，然後我們立即暫停了 30 天。

So it's I think everyone is really bemoaning the lack of clarity around what the trade policy is going to be.

因此，我認為每個人都在抱怨貿易政策缺乏明確性。

I understand it's a dynamic environment and this administration is trying to flex its muscle from a negotiating standpoint.

我知道這是一個動態的環境，而本屆政府正試圖從談判的角度展現其實力。

So the watch word of the day, again, is agility.

因此，今天的關鍵字又是「敏捷」。

When we look at prebuys, we didn't see a lot of pre-buys from our customers Obviously, we're trying to take advantage where we can on things like steel and aluminum and other things that we know are in the president's crosshairs.

當我們查看預購時，我們沒有看到很多來自客戶的預購，顯然，我們正試圖在鋼鐵和鋁等我們知道是總統關注的物品上發揮優勢。

But it's trying to manage through the business as best we can.

但我們正在盡力管理好業務。

I would note that when you look at the automotive industry, the amount of inventory that's on dealers' lots right now is actually fairly light.

我想指出的是，當你觀察汽車產業時，會發現目前經銷商的庫存量其實相當少。

So absent a catastrophic trade policy, we expect that there should be some nice demand ahead of us in 2025 from an automotive production standpoint.

因此，如果沒有災難性的貿易政策，我們預期從汽車生產的角度來看，2025 年應該會出現一些好的需求。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And just switching over to the savings actions.

然後就轉向儲蓄行動了。

What changed where did you find more annual savings?

發生了什麼變化，您在哪些方面找到了更多的年度儲蓄？

And then in, I guess, that range that we've got now, what do you think impacts you for meeting the high end or the low end of that range?

然後，我想，在我們現在得到的範圍內，您認為什麼會影響您達到該範圍的高端或低端？

Well, Walt, I mean entering into the fourth quarter, I mean, we were pulling the levers across discretionary spending and looking at our model in areas that we can hold as examples and projects and things that we don't have to move immediately on.

嗯，沃爾特，我的意思是進入第四季度，我的意思是，我們正在控制可自由支配的開支，並在可以作為示例和項目以及我們不必立即採取行動的領域研究我們的模型。

So we just had a much better impact than we anticipated.

因此，我們所取得的影響比預期的要好得多。

And it was really across our business, but largely in the Americas.

這確實涉及我們的整個業務，但主要是在美洲。

So increasing those estimates and almost 2x and then increasing the going-forward estimates are just strong execution across our team.

因此，將這些估計值提高近 2 倍，然後提高未來的估計值，這只是我們團隊的強力執行。

So whether it's in the lower end or higher end of the range, it's going to be dependent upon what happens in the level of travel or customer engagement and other activities.

因此，無論是處於範圍的低端還是高端，都將取決於旅行水平或客戶參與度以及其他活動的情況。

And we want to make sure that we're focused on.

我們希望確保我們能夠集中註意力。

But that's a fair range in how we look at the temporary cost actions that we see, which are significantly higher than what we thought going into the fourth quarter.

但從我們看到的臨時成本行動來看，這是一個合理的範圍，它明顯高於我們在第四季預期的水平。

Walt, I would just add that there tends to be a little bit more discretionary spending in the fourth quarter, particularly around things like travel as we're getting ready for planning for the following year, the budgeting season and the like.

沃爾特，我想補充一點，第四季度的可自由支配支出往往會稍微多一些，特別是在旅行等方面，因為我們正在為下一年的預算季節等做計劃。

And part of our original projections assume that there would be some ramp-up in the cost savings as we went through the quarter.

我們最初的預測部分假設，隨著本季的推進，成本節約會增加。

And I just said the team did a remarkable job responding to the directive in the direction we set and doing their best to avoid unnecessary expenditures and rely on other technologies and other vehicles to be able to communicate with each other.

我剛才說，團隊在回應我們設定的方向的指令方面做得非常出色，他們盡最大努力避免不必要的開支，並依靠其他技術和其他工具實現相互溝通。

And so I think the team just did an incredible job and we thank them for all the hard work.

所以我認為團隊做了一項了不起的工作，我們感謝他們的辛勤工作。

We're going to continue to keep the focus on costs given the uncertain market environment we're participating in.

鑑於我們所處的市場環境不確定，我們將繼續關注成本。

We just think a little bit of the cost is going to start to come back up from a sequential basis as we do need to do some travel to get out and visit customers and the like.

我們只是認為，由於我們確實需要進行一些旅行，出去拜訪客戶等，所以成本會有一點點回升。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Steve Barger。

First one for Gabe.

第一個是 Gabe。

Going back to the conversation on margin improvement, the high end of operating margin for the 2025 target range is 17.5%, and you just beat that on an almost 7% organic revenue decline.

回到關於利潤率提高的討論，2025 年目標範圍的營業利潤率上限為 17.5%，而您剛剛以近 7% 的有機收入下降超過了這一目標。

So is it reasonable to just run the math forward a couple of years on what an up cycle could look like at your normal incremental?

那麼，以正常增量計算幾年後的上升週期是否合理？

I mean, it seems like the conclusion should be that there's another couple of hundred basis points of expansion from here, similar to what you've done over the last four or five years?

我的意思是，結論似乎是從現在開始還會有幾百個基點的擴張，類似過去四、五年所做的？

Yes.

是的。

I just -- as you know, Steve, we've been very consistent over the last 20 years and the related cycles and expanding our margins to 200 basis points.

我只是 — — 如你所知，史蒂夫，在過去 20 年以及相關週期中，我們一直非常穩定，並將我們的利潤率擴大到 200 個基點。

So Yes, we're on the higher end of the range with the average right on top of our average of 16%, which is what we planned for this cycle.

所以是的，我們處於範圍的高端，平均值剛好高於我們為本週期制定的計劃 16%。

So I would expect that we would continue to develop our model. and you see the opportunities shaping across all of our segments, including our targets to improve the automation profile to the corporate average.

所以我希望我們能夠繼續開發我們的模型。您會發現，我們各個領域都出現了機遇，其中就包括我們將自動化程度提升至企業平均的目標。

So we know there's upside.

因此我們知道還有好處。

You see that we're performing on the high end with the compression on volume.

您可以看到，我們在音量壓縮方面表現優異。

So we're very excited about where the business is headed.

因此，我們對業務的發展方向感到非常興奮。

So no reason to think that there would be any change to kind of your normal incremental as you think about an organic growth-driven up cycle and the internal initiatives that you would have, is there upside to the mid-20%?

因此，沒有理由認為您的正常增量會有任何變化，當您考慮有機成長驅動的上升週期和內部舉措時，是否有 20% 中間的上升空間？

Or is that where you would expect to run?

或者說那是你期望跑到的地方嗎？

Now we'll talk more further as we launch our 2030 strategy, but you could expect us to continue to shape our business model with expanding margins.

現在，我們將在啟動 2030 策略時進一步討論，但您可以期待我們繼續塑造我們的商業模式並擴大利潤率。

Great.

偉大的。

And then one for Steve.

最後還有一篇是給史蒂夫的。

Really good to hear you talk about the uptick in the long-cycle automation projects.

很高興聽到您談論長週期自動化專案的上升趨勢。

Is that primarily with customers you already had relationships with?

這主要是針對您已經建立關係的客戶嗎？

Or are you getting inquiries from new customers thinking about increasing their investments in automation.

或者您是否收到新客戶的詢問，他們正在考慮增加對自動化的投資。

And maybe can you expand that to medium-sized customers as well?

也許您也可以將其擴展到中型客戶？

Yes, Steve, let me sort of unpack your question a little bit.

是的，史蒂夫，讓我稍微解答一下你的問題。

So the comments I was making about the long cycle really are around automotive projects.

所以我關於長週期的評論實際上是圍繞著汽車項目的。

They're the ones that are typically driven by a product refresh cycle and the nature of those projects tend to be 18 months on average, a little bit more or a little bit less.

它們通常由產品更新周期驅動，這些項目的持續時間通常平均為 18 個月，稍多或稍少。

We were already doing business with all the customers that do those types of projects.

我們已經與所有從事此類專案的客戶開展業務。

So from that perspective on the business, it's not us getting an exposure to new customers.

因此從業務角度來看，我們並沒有獲得新客戶的關注。

It's the customer base now having more confidence in their product plans to release investment.

現在客戶群對他們的產品計劃更有信心，從而釋放投資。

When we look at the medium and short-cycle parts of the business, there, the growth strategy is around serving the customers we've already got and gaining new customers and particularly through technology making automation more applicable and more economically feasible for customers that have more of a high-mix, low-volume manufacturing model because, again, the fixed cost historically of setting up and programming a robot were very high.

當我們審視業務的中期和短期週期部分時，成長策略是圍繞服務現有客戶和贏得新客戶，特別是透過技術使自動化對於採用高混合、低批量製造模式的客戶更適用、更經濟可行，因為從歷史上看，設置和編程機器人的固定成本非常高。

And so people would only use it if they had long production runs at the same part.

因此，人們只有在同一零件上進行長期生產時才會使用它。

And through things like software and cobots and other things, we're making automation much more applicable to medium-sized companies that are more job shop nature in their production.

透過軟體、協作機器人等，我們使自動化更適用於生產更具車間性質的中型公司。

So I think as you look forward for the automation strategy, it's continuing to win and grow with the customers we've got and continuing to expand the relevant market through technology and innovation.

因此，我認為，當您展望自動化策略時，它將繼續與我們的客戶一起贏得和成長，並透過技術和創新繼續擴大相關市場。

Chris Dankert, Loop Capital.

克里斯·丹克特（Chris Dankert），Loop Capital。

I guess just a point of clarification on the cost savings.

我想這只是為了澄清一下關於成本節省的問題。

Given the step-up in actions in the fourth quarter is the new guide here for $40 million to $55 million of incremental savings in 2025, just given how that kind of rolls through the year -- it seems I mean, again, first half makes sense, but back half should roll off almost completely by 4Q, correct?

考慮到第四季度行動的加強，這裡的新指南是 2025 年增量節省 4,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元，只是考慮到這種節省在全年的滾動情況——我的意思是，上半年似乎有意義，但下半年應該在第四季度幾乎完全滾動，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

That's right, Chris.

沒錯，克里斯。

That's incremental.

這是漸進的。

And that's all built into the incremental margin assumptions that we provided as well.

這一切都包含在我們提供的增量利潤假設中。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just on the incentive comp impact, forgive me if I missed it, but just how does that impact 4Q here?

然後只是關於激勵補償的影響，如果我錯過了請原諒我，但這對第四季度有何影響？

Yes.

是的。

The when you look at, for example, the incentive accruals, that was pretty consistent with $7 million in the fourth quarter.

例如，當您查看激勵應計金額時，會發現該金額與第四季的 700 萬美元相當一致。

That's consistent throughout the year.

全年都是如此。

So the thing to note with incentive comp and the -- also the changes in employee costs, we'll reset our objectives.

因此，需要注意的是激勵薪酬和員工成本的變化，我們將重新設定我們的目標。

And so you'll have lesser of an impact on incentives, but that's already built into the incrementals.

因此，你對激勵的影響會較小，但這已經融入增量了。

We just know how our objectives are set.

我們只是知道我們的目標是如何設定的。

They're based on what the budgets are for the current year, and that ends up being the driver to incentive compensation.

它們是基於當年的預算，並最終成為激勵薪酬的驅動力。

So that will be reset, and that has already been built into the incrementals that are part of the model.

因此它將被重置，並且已經被建構到作為模型一部分的增量。

This concludes our Q&A session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the call over back to Gabe Bruno for closing remarks.

現在我會把電話轉回給 Gabe Bruno，請他作結語。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I would like to thank you all for joining us on the call today and for your continued interest in Lincoln Electric.

我想感謝大家今天的電話會議以及對林肯電氣的持續關注。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I would like to thank everyone for joining us on the call today and for your continued interest in Lincoln Electric.

我想感謝大家今天的電話會議以及對林肯電氣的持續關注。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。