車美仕 (KMX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q3 Fiscal Year 2024 CarMax Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, David Lowenstein, AVP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    女士們、先生們,感謝大家的支持,歡迎參加 2024 年第三季 CarMax 財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係助理副總裁 David Lowenstein。請繼續。

  • David L. Lowenstein - Assistant VP of IR

    David L. Lowenstein - Assistant VP of IR

  • Thank you, Jamie. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our fiscal 2024 third quarter earnings conference call. I'm here today with Bill Nash, our President and CEO; Enrique Mayor-Mora, our Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jon Daniels, our Senior Vice President, CarMax Auto Finance operations.

    謝謝你,傑米。大家,早安。感謝您參加我們的 2024 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天我和我們的總裁兼執行長比爾·納許一起來到這裡。 Enrique Mayor-Mora,我們的執行副總裁兼財務長;喬恩‧丹尼爾斯 (Jon Daniels),CarMax 汽車金融業務資深副總裁。

  • Let me remind you our statements today that are not statements of historical fact, including statements regarding the company's future business plans, prospects and financial performance are forward-looking statements we make pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on our current knowledge, expectations and assumptions and are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.

    讓我提醒您,我們今天的聲明不是歷史事實的聲明,包括有關公司未來業務計劃、前景和財務業績的聲明,而是我們根據1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款做出的前瞻性聲明. 這些陳述是基於我們目前的知識、預期和假設,並受到重大風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與我們的預期有重大差異。

  • In providing projections and other forward-looking statements, we disclaim any intent or obligation to update them. For additional information on important factors that could affect these expectations, please see our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended February 28, 2023, previously filed with the SEC. Should you have any follow-up questions after the call, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations department at (804) 747-0422, extension 7865.

    在提供預測和其他前瞻性陳述時,我們不承擔任何更新它們的意圖或義務。有關可能影響這些預期的重要因素的更多信息,請參閱我們今天上午向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格以及之前向 SEC 提交的截至 2023 年 2 月 28 日的財年的 10-K 表格年度報告。如果您在通話後有任何後續問題,請隨時聯絡我們的投資者關係部門,電話:(804) 747-0422,分機號碼 7865。

  • Lastly, let me thank you in advance for asking only one question and getting back in the queue for more follow-ups. Bill?

    最後,讓我提前感謝您只提出一個問題並回到隊列中以獲取更多後續問題。帳單?

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Great. Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Our third quarter results reflect the continuation of our strategy that has yielded sequential year-over-year improvements across key components of our business for four straight quarters. While affordability of used car remains a challenge for consumers, we're excited about the positive impact we are seeing from our omnichannel investments, which reinforces our strong belief that we are well positioned for the future.

    偉大的。謝謝你,大衛。大家早安,感謝您加入我們。我們第三季的業績反映了我們策略的延續,該策略已連續四個季度在我們業務的關鍵組成部分實現了同比連續改善。雖然二手車的負擔能力對消費者來說仍然是一個挑戰,但我們對全通路投資所帶來的正面影響感到興奮,這增強了我們的堅定信念,即我們為未來做好了準備。

  • This quarter, we delivered strong retail and wholesale GPUs. We bought more vehicles from consumers and dealers, and we also sold more wholesale units than a year ago. We further reduced SG&A from the prior year. We continued to strengthen the credit mix within [CAF's] receivables portfolio, which had a positive impact on our loan loss provision, and we resumed our share repurchase program.

    本季度,我們交付了強勁的零售和批發 GPU。與一年前相比,我們從消費者和經銷商購買了更多車輛,批發銷售量也增加了。與前一年相比,我們進一步減少了銷售管理費用 (SG&A)。我們繼續加強[CAF]應收帳款投資組合中的信貸組合,這對我們的貸款損失撥備產生了積極影響,並且我們恢復了股票回購計劃。

  • For the third quarter of FY '24, our diversified business model delivered total sales of $6.1 billion, down 5% compared to last year. This was driven by lower retail and wholesale prices and lower retail volume partially offset by higher wholesale volume. In our retail business, total unit sales declined 2.9% and used unit comps were down 4.1%. Average selling price declined approximately $1,300 per unit or 5% year-over-year.

    24 財年第三季度,我們多元化的業務模式實現總銷售額 61 億美元,比去年下降 5%。這是由於零售和批發價格下降以及零售量下降部分被批發量上升所抵消。在我們的零售業務中,總銷量下降 2.9%,二手銷量下降 4.1%。平均售價每單位下降約 1,300 美元,較去年同期下降 5%。

  • Third quarter retail gross profit per used unit was $2,277, relatively consistent with $2,237 from last year. For the fourth quarter, our expectation is that our margin -- our per unit margin will be lower than last year's fourth quarter record margin. We continue to expect that per unit margin for the full year will be similar to last year. As always, we will continue to actively manage this as we test price elasticity and monitor the competitive landscape. Wholesale unit sales were up 7.7% versus the third quarter last year.

    第三季每二手商品零售毛利潤為 2,277 美元,與去年同期的 2,237 美元基本持平。對於第四季度,我們的預期是我們的利潤率——我們的單位利潤率將低於去年第四季創紀錄的利潤率。我們繼續預計全年的單位利潤率將與去年相似。一如既往,我們將繼續積極管理這個問題,同時測試價格彈性並監控競爭格局。批發單位銷售額比去年第三季成長 7.7%。

  • Average selling price declined approximately $600 per unit or 7% year-over-year. Third quarter wholesale gross profit per unit was $961 in line with $966, a year ago. Like our outlook on retail GPU, we anticipate wholesale per unit margin for the full year will be similar to last year. As a reminder, last year's fourth quarter wholesale GPU was within $4 of our all-time record and benefited from appreciation and strong dealer demand, particularly at the end of the quarter. We expect this year's fourth quarter per unit margin will be more in line with our year-to-date performance and lower than last year.

    平均售價每單位下降約 600 美元,年減 7%。第三季每單位批發毛利潤為 961 美元,與去年同期的 966 美元持平。與我們對零售 GPU 的展望一樣,我們預計全年每單位批發利潤率將與去年相似。提醒一下,去年第四季 GPU 批發價格與我們的歷史記錄相差不到 4 美元,這得益於升值和經銷商的強勁需求,尤其是在季度末。我們預計今年第四季的單位利潤率將與我們今年迄今的業績更加一致,並且低於去年。

  • We bought approximately 250,000 vehicles from consumers and dealers during the quarter, up 5% from last year. Of these vehicles, we purchased approximately 228,000 from consumers with slightly more than half of those buys coming through our online instant appraisal experience. As a result, our self-sufficiency remained above 70% for the quarter. With the support of our Edmund sales team, we sourced the remaining approximately 22,000 vehicles through dealers, up from approximately 14,000 last year. In regard to our third quarter online metrics, approximately 14% of retail unit sales were online, up from 12% last year. Approximately 55% of retail unit sales were omni sales this quarter up from 52% in the prior year.

    本季我們從消費者和經銷商購買了約 25 萬輛汽車,比去年增長 5%。在這些車輛中,我們從消費者那裡購買了大約 228,000 輛,其中略多於一半的購買是透過我們的線上即時評估體驗進行的。因此,本季我們的自給率維持在 70% 以上。在 Edmund 銷售團隊的支持下,我們透過經銷商購買了剩餘的約 22,000 輛汽車,高於去年的約 14,000 輛。就我們第三季的線上指標而言,約 14% 的零售單位銷售額來自在線,高於去年的 12%。本季約 55% 的零售單位銷售額為全方位銷售額,高於去年同期的 52%。

  • All of our third quarter wholesale auctions and sales were virtual and are considered online transactions. This represents 19% of total revenue. Total revenue from online transactions was approximately 31%, up from 28% last year. CarMax Auto Finance or CAF delivered income of $149 million down slightly from $152 million during the same period last year. Jon will provide more detail on customer financing, the loan loss provision and CAF contribution in a few moments.

    我們第三季所有的批發拍賣和銷售都是虛擬的,被視為線上交易。這佔總收入的 19%。來自線上交易的總收入約為 31%,高於去年的 28%。 CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) 的營收為 1.49 億美元,略低於去年同期的 1.52 億美元。喬恩將稍後提供有關客戶融資、貸款損失準備金和 CAF 貢獻的更多詳細資訊。

  • At this point, I'd like to turn the call over to Enrique, who will provide more information on our third quarter financial performance. Enrique?

    現在,我想將電話轉給恩里克,他將提供有關我們第三季財務業績的更多資訊。恩里克?

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. As Bill noted, we drove another quarter of sequential improvement in year-over-year performance across our business and our P&L. Notable areas of improvement included used and wholesale unit sales and their respective (inaudible) margin dollars, total gross profit, CAF contribution, SG&A leverage and EPS. Third quarter net earnings per diluted share was $0.52 versus $0.24 a year ago. Total gross profit was $613 million, up 6% from last year's third quarter. Used retail margin declined by 1% to $398 million with lower volume, partially offset by a slightly higher per unit margin. Wholesale vehicle margin increased by 7% to $123 million, with an increase in volume and flat per unit margin compared to last year. Other gross profit was $92 million, up 55% from a year ago. This increase was driven by service, which delivered a $33 million improvement over last year, with this year's quarter reporting a $21 million loss.

    謝謝比爾,大家早安。正如比爾所指出的那樣,我們的業務和損益表業績同比又實現了一個季度的環比改善。顯著的改善領域包括二手和批發單位銷售額及其各自的(聽不清楚)利潤率、總毛利、CAF 貢獻、SG&A 槓桿和每股盈餘。第三季攤薄後每股淨利為 0.52 美元,去年同期為 0.24 美元。總毛利為 6.13 億美元,比去年第三季成長 6%。二手零售利潤率下降 1%,至 3.98 億美元,銷售量下降,但部分被單位利潤率略高所抵銷。批發汽車利潤率成長 7%,達到 1.23 億美元,與去年相比,銷量增加,單位利潤率持平。其他毛利為 9,200 萬美元,比去年同期成長 55%。這一成長是由服務推動的,服務比去年增加了 3,300 萬美元,而今年季度報告虧損 2,100 萬美元。

  • The efficiency and cost coverage measures that we put in place towards the end of FY '23 continued to drive improved year-over-year performance in FY '24. Extended Protection Plan or EPP revenues were relatively flat compared to last year's third quarter. We do not expect to receive profit-sharing revenues in the fourth quarter due to the inflationary pressures our partners have experienced. Third-party finance fees were down $2 million from a year ago, driven by lower volume in Tier 2 for which we receive a fee and higher volume in Tier 3 for which we pay a fee.

    我們在 23 財年末採取的效率和成本覆蓋措施持續推動 24 財年業績年增。與去年第三季相比,延長保護計畫或 EPP 收入相對持平。由於我們的合作夥伴經歷了通膨壓力,我們預計第四季度不會獲得利潤分享收入。第三方融資費用比一年前減少了 200 萬美元,因為我們收取費用的第 2 層交易量減少,以及我們支付費用的第 3 層交易量增加。

  • On the SG&A front, expenses for the third quarter were $560 million, down 5% from the prior year's quarter as we continue to see benefits from our cost management efforts. SG&A as a percent of gross profit levered by 11 percentage points as compared to last year. The decrease in SG&A dollars over last year was mainly due to 3 factors: first, other overhead decreased by $19 million. This decrease was driven primarily by continued favorability in non-GAAP uncollectible receivables and, to a lesser degree, from reductions in spend for our technology platforms and from favorability in costs associated with lower staffing levels.

    在 SG&A 方面,第三季的支出為 5.6 億美元,比去年同期下降 5%,因為我們繼續看到成本管理工作帶來的好處。 SG&A 佔毛利潤的百分比比去年提高了 11 個百分點。 SG&A 美元比去年減少的主要原因有 3 個因素:首先,其他管理費用減少了 1,900 萬美元。這一下降主要是由於對非公認會計原則無法收回的應收帳款的持續優惠,在較小程度上是由於我們技術平台支出的減少以及與人員配置水平降低相關的成本優惠所致。

  • Second, total compensation and benefits decreased by $20 million, excluding a $3 million increase in share-based compensation. This decrease was primarily driven by our continued focus on driving efficiency gains and aligning staffing levels in stores and CECs with sales. The decrease was also impacted by a lower corporate bonus accrual in the quarter. Third, advertising increased by $5 million. This reflects an increase in per unit spend as compared to last year's quarterly low level of per unit spend and was partially offset by lower units.

    其次,薪資和福利總額減少了 2,000 萬美元,其中不包括增加的 300 萬美元的股權薪酬。這一下降主要是由於我們持續專注於提高效率以及根據銷售額調整商店和 CEC 的人員配置水準。這一下降也受到本季度公司應計獎金減少的影響。第三,廣告費增加500萬美元。這反映了與去年季度低水平的單位支出相比,單位支出有所增加,但部分被單位支出的減少所抵消。

  • As we have previously communicated, our expectation is for our full year marketing spend on a per unit basis to be similar to last year. Accordingly, we expect that our per unit spend in this year's fourth quarter will exceed last year's fourth quarter. Entering the fourth quarter, we have now passed the year mark since we initiated our significant cost management efforts. We are well on track to outperform the target we set out at the beginning of the year of requiring low single-digit gross profit growth to lever SG&A for the full year, even when excluding the benefits from this year's legal settlements. That being said, we remain disciplined with our spend and investment levels.

    正如我們之前所傳達的,我們的預期是全年每單位行銷支出與去年相似。因此,我們預計今年第四季的單位支出將超過去年第四季。進入第四季度,我們自啟動重大成本管理工作以來已經過了一年。我們預計將超越年初設定的目標,即要求全年毛利保持較低個位數成長,以槓桿化銷售、一般及行政費用(SG&A),即使不包括今年法律和解帶來的好處。話雖如此,我們仍然嚴格控制支出和投資水準。

  • Regarding capital structure, we resumed our share repurchase program in October, repurchasing approximately 649,000 shares for a total spend of $42 million in the quarter. This pace is in line with the guidance we provided last quarter. As of the end of the quarter, we had $2.41 billion of repurchase [authorization] remaining. In terms of other uses of capital, such as new store openings, we will open four stores in the fourth quarter. Including 2 in the New York metro market and 1 in each of the Los Angeles and Chicago metro markets. We will also open our first stand-alone reconditioning center in the Atlanta metro market. Our extensive nationwide footprint and logistics network continue to be a competitive advantage for CarMax.

    關於資本結構,我們於 10 月恢復了股票回購計劃,回購了約 649,000 股股票,本季總支出為 4,200 萬美元。這一速度符合我們上季度提供的指導。截至本季末,我們尚有 24.1 億美元的回購[授權]。在資金的其他用途方面,例如新店開張,我們將在第四季開設四家門市。其中紐約地鐵市場 2 個,洛杉磯和芝加哥地鐵市場各 1 個。我們還將在亞特蘭大地鐵市場開設第一個獨立的翻新中心。我們廣泛的全國覆蓋範圍和物流網路仍然是 CarMax 的競爭優勢。

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jon.

    現在我想把電話轉給喬恩。

  • Jon Daniels

    Jon Daniels

  • Thanks, Enrique. Good morning, everyone. During the third quarter, CarMax Auto Finance originated approximately $2 billion, resulting in penetration of 44% net of 3-day payoffs, which was up from Q2 and relatively in line with the 44.4% observed during the third quarter last year. The weighted average contract rate charged to new customers was 11.3%, an increase of 150 basis points from the same period last year and up 20 basis points from Q2. Tier 2 penetration in the quarter was sequentially in line with Q2 at 18%, but remains lower year-over-year as we have yet to fully comp over the partner tightening observed in the back half of calendar 2022. Tier 3 accounted for 6.9% of sales as compared to 6.1% last year. Impacting each of these results as CAF's decreased percentage in Tier 3 as well as the increased test volume in Tier 2.

    謝謝,恩里克。大家,早安。第三季度,CarMax 汽車金融發起約 20 億美元,扣除 3 天回報後的滲透率達到 44%,高於第二季度,與去年第三季度觀察到的 44.4% 基本一致。向新客戶收取的加權平均合約費率為11.3%,較去年同期上升150個基點,較第二季上升20個基點。本季的 2 級滲透率與第二季度的 18% 持平,但同比仍較低,因為我們尚未完全彌補 2022 年下半年觀察到的合作夥伴緊縮情況。3 級滲透率佔 6.9%銷售額較去年增長6.1%。由於 CAF 在第 3 層中的百分比下降以及第 2 層中的測試量增加,對這些結果產生了影響。

  • CAF income for the quarter was $149 million, down $3.5 million from the same period last year, but up $14 million sequentially. The provision for the quarter was $68.3 million as compared to $85.7 million in the prior year's Q3. The $17 million favorability was offset by a year-over-year reduction in total interest margin of $20 million, driven by additional interest expense of $81 million. Note, fair market value adjustments from our hedging strategy accounted for $6 million in expense this year versus $5 million of income last year. The total interest margin of the portfolio decreased to 5.9% from the 6.1% seen last quarter. This slight reduction is primarily a result of increased funding costs, including the fair market value adjustments along with CAP's deliberate credit tightening that began last year, which inherently removes higher margin, higher loss assets from new originations. CAF continued to offset these headwinds by adjusting customer rates but with a careful eye on 3-day payoffs, sales and overall CarMax profitability.

    本季 CAF 營收為 1.49 億美元,比去年同期減少 350 萬美元,但比上一季增加 1,400 萬美元。本季的撥備金額為 6,830 萬美元,而去年第三季的撥備金額為 8,570 萬美元。 1,700 萬美元的優惠被 8,100 萬美元額外利息支出導致的總息差年減 2,000 萬美元所抵銷。請注意,我們對沖策略的公平市場價值調整導致今年的費用為 600 萬美元,而去年的收入為 500 萬美元。投資組合的總息差從上季的6.1%下降至5.9%。這一小幅下降主要是由於融資成本增加,包括公平市場價值調整以及 CAP 從去年開始的刻意信貸緊縮,這本質上消除了新來源的更高利潤、更高損失的資產。 CAF 繼續透過調整客戶費率來抵消這些不利因素,但會密切關注 3 天的回報、銷售額和 CarMax 的整體獲利能力。

  • We are pleased with our ability to maintain a relatively stable net interest margin despite the volatile interest rate environment. The $68 million provision within the quarter resulted in a reserve balance of $512 million or 2.92% of receivables compared to 3.08% at the end of the second quarter. This 16 basis point reduction has occurred even with CAP's continued investment in the Tier 2 space and is evidence of the growing impact that our broader credit tightening is having on the overall portfolio. While cap delinquency levels remain elevated versus historic norms, as has been the case industry-wide, we believe our reserve adjustment adequately reflects the anticipated future loss performance of our portfolio.

    我們對在利率環境波動的情況下保持相對穩定的淨利差的能力感到滿意。本季撥備的 6,800 萬美元導致準備金餘額為 5.12 億美元,佔應收帳款的 2.92%,而第二季末為 3.08%。儘管 CAP 繼續投資二級領域,但還是出現了 16 個基點的下降,這證明了我們更廣泛的信貸緊縮對整體投資組合的影響越來越大。儘管與歷史正常水平相比,上限拖欠水平仍然較高,就像整個行業的情況一樣,但我們相信我們的準備金調整充分反映了我們投資組合的預期未來損失表現。

  • The underwriting adjustments executed to date have been the right strategic moves to ensure we hit targeted loss levels, preserve our access to efficient funding yet still deliver strong future CAF earnings. We are well poised to recapture Tier 1 and Tier 3 volume as economic conditions improve and our continued learning in the Tier 2 space should provide a future growth opportunity. Now I'll turn the call back over to Bill.

    迄今為止執行的承保調整是正確的策略性舉措,可確保我們達到目標損失水平,維持我們獲得有效融資的機會,同時仍能帶來強勁的未來 CAF 收益。隨著經濟狀況的改善,我們已做好重新奪回一級和三級銷售的準備,而我們在二級領域的持續學習應該會提供未來的成長機會。現在我將把電話轉回給比爾。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Great. Thank you, Jon and Enrique. As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, we're excited about the contributions we are seeing from our omnichannel investments. Our omnichannel capabilities offer our customers a uniquely personalized car buying experience that enables them to do as much or as little online and in-stores they want. I'm proud of the progress that we've made on our journey to deliver the most customer-centric experience in the industry. As we have said before, we believe consumers in the used car industry will increasingly prefer to have the ability to progress digitally. We are seeing this in our data.

    偉大的。謝謝喬恩和恩里克。正如我在電話會議開始時提到的,我們對全通路投資所做出的貢獻感到興奮。我們的全通路能力為客戶提供了獨特的個人化購車體驗,使他們能夠在線上和店內進行盡可能多或盡可能少的購買。我為我們在提供業內最以客戶為中心的體驗的過程中所取得的進展感到自豪。正如我們之前所說,我們相信二手車產業的消費者將越來越喜歡擁有數位化進步的能力。我們在數據中看到了這一點。

  • At the end of fiscal year '20 when we completed our initial omnichannel rollout, approximately 40% of our customers leverage some or all of our digital capabilities to complete their transactions. That has grown to approximately 70% this year. I recognize that the market volatility over the past few years has made it challenging to see the direct benefits omnichannel has delivered to our business, so I want to share some proof points that we are seeing. First, our data indicates that omnichannel is driving incremental retail customers to CarMax. Customers who fully complete an online transaction are 10% more likely to be new to CarMax compared with our omnichannel and in-store customers. We have also found that our online consumers [skew] younger, which creates the opportunity to participate in more of their lifetime purchase cycles.

    在 20 財年末,當我們完成最初的全通路部署時,大約 40% 的客戶利用我們的部分或全部數位功能來完成他們的交易。今年這一比例已增至約 70%。我意識到,過去幾年的市場波動使得我們很難看到全通路為我們的業務帶來的直接好處,因此我想分享一些我們看到的證據。首先,我們的數據顯示全通路正在推動 CarMax 增加零售客戶。與我們的全通路和店內客戶相比,完全完成線上交易的客戶新接觸 CarMax 的可能性高出 10%。我們也發現,我們的線上消費者[偏向]更年輕,這創造了參與更多終身購買週期的機會。

  • Additionally, since initially completing our omnichannel rollout, we have seen outsized market share growth in our oldest 15 markets where we have not opened new stores since calendar 2013. In calendar 2019, the market share annual growth rate for these markets doubled from the average annual growth rate for the previous 5 years. Moreover, from the beginning of calendar 2019 to the end of calendar '22, the market share average annual growth rate for these older markets continue to exceed their pre omnichannel average growth rate.

    此外,自從最初完成全通路推出以來,我們在最古老的15 個市場中看到了巨大的市場份額增長,自2013 年以來,我們在這些市場中沒有開設新店。在2019 年,這些市場的市場份額年增長率是平均年增長率的兩倍過去5年的增長率。此外,從 2019 年初到 22 年底,這些老市場的市佔率年均成長率持續超過全通路前的平均成長率。

  • Second, instant offer, our online consumer-facing appraisal tool that is a core part of our omnichannel capabilities, is significantly driving our vehicle purchases and wholesale sales. We doubled our [bots] from consumers the year we launched instant offer. This enabled us to grow our self-sufficiency to over 70%, which we have maintained since we launched the tool. Online buyouts have also fueled our wholesale volume, which grew approximately 65% during the launch year and has remained well above the volume prior to instant offer. It's worth noting that our instant offer algorithms also support our dealer-facing [Max] offer vehicle sourcing application.

    其次,即時報價是我們面向消費者的線上評估工具,是我們全通路能力的核心部分,正在顯著推動我們的車輛購買和批發銷售。在推出即時優惠的那一年,我們來自消費者的[機器人]增加了一倍。這使我們能夠將自給率提高到 70% 以上,自推出該工具以來我們一直保持在這一水平。線上買斷也推動了我們的批發量的成長,在推出當年增長了約 65%,並且仍遠高於即時報價之前的量。值得注意的是,我們的即時報價演算法還支援我們面向經銷商的 [Max] 報價車輛採購應用程式。

  • Third, our omnichannel products are supporting double-digit web traffic growth. Finance based shopping has been our #1 lead source. This multi-lender prequalification products gives customers the ability to digitally receive quick credit decisions across our inventory with no impact to their credit score. Over 80% of our customers are using this online tool as they begin the credit process.

    第三,我們的全通路產品正在支援兩位數的網路流量成長。基於金融的購物一直是我們的第一大主要來源。這種多貸方資格預審產品使客戶能夠以數位方式接收我們庫存中的快速信用決策,而不會影響他們的信用評分。我們超過 80% 的客戶在開始信貸流程時使用此線上工具。

  • Finally, omnichannel is on track to be a more efficient cost structure compared to our store-only model. Our omnichannel cost structure has more fixed costs than our historical store-only structure. We continue to show sequential year-over-year improvements in key cost efficiency metrics for omnichannel overhead model. With a more fixed cost structure, we expect to lever more strongly than in the previous model as demand picks up. We expect the impact of our omnichannel capabilities will continue to grow over time as consumers demand a more personalized experience that combines online and in-store progression. We believe that many of our competitors across the used car industry will not be able to deliver this experience in a simple and seamless manner.

    最後,與我們的純商店模式相比,全通路有望成為更有效的成本結構。我們的全通路成本結構比我們歷史上的純商店結構具有更多的固定成本。我們持續展示全通路開銷模型的關鍵成本效率指標逐年持續改善。由於成本結構更加固定,隨著需求的回升,我們預期槓桿作用將比之前的模型更強。我們預計,隨著消費者需要結合線上和店內進展的更個人化的體驗,我們的全通路能力的影響將隨著時間的推移而繼續增長。我們相信,二手車行業的許多競爭對手將無法以簡單、無縫的方式提供這種體驗。

  • In closing, we're confident we have the right strategy in place. Our consistent approach to control what we can and deliver the most customer-centric experience in the industry is driving sequential quarterly improvements across our business. We are well positioned to emerge from this cycle, an even stronger company. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions. Operator?

    最後,我們相信我們已經制定了正確的策略。我們始終如一地控制我們的能力並提供業內最以客戶為中心的體驗,這正在推動我們整個業務的連續季度改進。我們處於有利位置,可以擺脫這個週期,成為更強大的公司。這樣,我們將很樂意回答您的問題。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We'll go first with Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

    謝謝。 (操作員說明)我們首先讓 Daniel Imbro 和 Stephens 一起。

  • Daniel Robert Imbro - MD & Research Analyst

    Daniel Robert Imbro - MD & Research Analyst

  • Jon, Enrique, maybe just want to circle back on the cash provision just given the impressive results here. I'm trying to understand the puts and takes. So the allowance came down quite a bit, Jon, I think you talked about maybe just tighter underwriting there. But it looks like net charge-offs are at maybe the highest level we've seen in over a decade. So I guess how can you -- can you help us reconcile those two factors? And how should we think about provisions? Has the credit improvement meant that nominally this is the right level of provisions going forward? Or how would you think about those trends as we move through the end of the year and the tax refund season?

    喬恩、恩里克,也許只是想回顧一下現金供應,因為這裡取得了令人印象深刻的成果。我試著理解投入和採取。所以津貼下降了很多,喬恩,我想你談到的可能只是那裡的承保更加嚴格。但看起來淨沖銷可能達到了十多年來的最高水準。所以我想你能──你能幫助我們協調這兩個因素嗎?我們應該如何考慮條款?信用改善是否意味著名義上這是未來撥備的正確水準?或者,當我們進入年底和退稅季節時,您如何看待這些趨勢?

  • Jon Daniels

    Jon Daniels

  • Yes, Dan, absolutely appreciate the question and fully expected it. So first, let's start on the provision piece. Our provision in the quarter is going to be made up of two components. It's going to be our change in outlook on the losses that we expect on the existing book of business versus what we set at the end of Q2. Second, it's going to be the required reserve on losses on the new originations. So let's touch on the first piece. What I can tell you is if you look at our expectation at the beginning of Q2 and what we observed on that existing book of business over the course of Q3, there hasn't been a lot of change.

    是的,丹,絕對感謝這個問題,並且完全期待它。首先,讓我們從供應部分開始。我們本季的撥備將由兩部分組成。這將是我們對現有業務帳簿預期虧損與第二季末設定虧損前景的改變。其次,這將是新產品的損失準備金。那麼讓我們來談談第一部分。我可以告訴你的是,如果你看看我們在第二季度初的預期以及我們在第三季度對現有業務賬簿的觀察結果,你會發現並沒有太大的變化。

  • Let's talk about the actuals and what we have observed because you referenced that. We publish on a monthly basis, our securitizations and how they're performing. It's important to note that that's about 60% of our receivables. We have a lot of stuff that has not yet been securitized. We've also mentioned that's been tighter. But what you see out there in the securitizations, we certainly observed two separate books of business there. The pre-COVID and the early COVID stuff that came in markedly lower than our target, well below the 2% to 2.5%.

    讓我們談談實際情況以及我們所觀察到的情況,因為您提到了這一點。我們每月發布我們的證券化及其表現。值得注意的是,這約占我們應收帳款的 60%。我們有很多東西還沒有證券化。我們也提到過更加嚴格。但你在證券化中看到的,我們當然觀察到了兩本獨立的商業書籍。新冠疫情之前和新冠疫情早期的數據明顯低於我們的目標,遠低於 2% 到 2.5%。

  • We knew that was going to come back into more normalized levels, and that's what we're seeing on the new stuff. We've also said that we believe there's front-loading occurring. If you look at those newer securitizations, especially in like the '21, 3, the '21, 4, the early '22 stuff, there is a clear curve difference in when the losses come in. We think it's front loaded. All of that was contemplated when we set a reserve at the end of Q2. So largely, this first component of the provision did not -- there wasn't a major adjustment that we had to make, which means at the end of the day, our provision is primarily made up of our new originations, and we talked about this.

    我們知道這將回到更正常化的水平,這就是我們在新產品上看到的。我們也說過,我們相信存在提前加載的情況。如果你看看那些較新的證券化,特別是像「21、3」、「21、4」、「22」早期的證券化,就會發現損失發生時存在明顯的曲線差異。我們認為它是提前加載的。當我們在第二季末設定儲備金時,就考慮到了所有這些。在很大程度上,該條款的第一個組成部分沒有——我們不需要做出重大調整,這意味著最終,我們的條款主要由我們的新產品組成,我們討論了這一點。

  • Our new originations are significantly tighter. There's very limited Tier 3 volume, there's a [testament] in Tier 2. And then our Tier 1 stuff, we've even been tightened there. So on that roughly $2 billion, it's a tighter book of business. It's a lower amount of overall loss. It's a relatively modest required provision, and that is the bulk of the Q3 provision.

    我們的新產品明顯更加嚴格。第三層的數量非常有限,第二層有一個[遺囑]。然後我們的第一層的東西,我們甚至在那裡被收緊了。因此,對於這大約 20 億美元來說,業務範圍更加緊張。整體損失較小。這是一項相對溫和的所需準備金,也是第三季準備金的大部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題將來自布萊恩·內格爾和奧本海默。

  • Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

    Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

  • You're asking a nice continued solid progression here.

    你在這裡要求一個良好的、持續的、堅實的進步。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

    Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

  • My question, I guess, just looking first at the wholesale business, that definitely inflected stronger here in the fiscal third quarter. Any -- I guess the question I would have is -- explain more kind of what was behind that inflection in sales growth? And are there (inaudible) -- as you look at the wholesale business or the readthroughs over to your used car business, just given the natural kind of association with those two segments.

    我想,我的問題是,首先看看批發業務,這在第三財季肯定會表現得更強勁。我想我想問的問題是,能否解釋一下銷售成長轉折點背後的更多原因?是否存在(聽不清楚)—當您查看批發業務或二手車業務的通讀時,請考慮與這兩個細分市場的自然關聯。

  • And then just a quick follow-up. Any commentary I mean -- given what we saw here in Q3, any commentary how the quarter progressed and what we're seeing into early Q4?

    然後進行快速跟進。我的意思是,考慮到我們在第三季度看到的情況,對本季的進展以及我們在第四季初看到的情況有什麼評論嗎?

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Great. Thank you for the questions, Brian. So yes, we are pleased with the wholesale growth. I think it's a combination of factors. I think one, there's a little bit of year-over-year dynamics playing in last year, given where we were, given where we saw sales, things that were going on in the marketplace, we actually pulled back on our offers. So I think you've got a little bit of that reflecting in kind of the year-over-year growth. But I also feel really good about the innovation on the product side of things. So when you think about Max offer, one of the things with Max offer, we completed this quarter, the rollout of our instant offer component of it. We still had a few markets that did not have instant offer, which meant they had to take pictures of vehicles and then get a value.

    是的。偉大的。謝謝你的提問,布萊恩。所以,是的,我們對批發成長感到滿意。我認為這是多種因素綜合作用的結果。我認為,去年有一些同比動態,考慮到我們所處的位置,考慮到我們看到的銷售情況,考慮到市場上正在發生的事情,我們實際上取消了我們的報價。所以我認為這在一定程度上反映在同比增長上。但我也對產品方面的創新感到非常滿意。因此,當您考慮 Max Offer 時,Max Offer 的其中一件事是,我們在本季度完成了即時報價組件的推出。我們仍然有一些市場沒有即時報價,這意味著他們必須為車輛拍照然後獲得價值。

  • Now they have the option to just not take pictures -- if they want to take pictures, they still can. So that's some of the innovation there that I think that helps. So we feel really great about the innovation. And as we go forward, it will probably be dependent more on what's going on in the market dynamics, that kind of thing at any given time.

    現在他們可以選擇不拍照——如果他們想拍照,他們仍然可以。我認為這就是一些有幫助的創新。所以我們對這項創新感到非常高興。隨著我們的前進,它可能會更多地取決於市場動態的變化,以及任何特定時間的情況。

  • As far as kind of the quarter and just outlook -- look, obviously, the industry is still challenged, and everybody knows that. And obviously, our business isn't where we want it to be. But I do think there's some encouraging signs out there. I mean besides the fact that we have continued to have sequential improvement, we saw a lot of depreciation this quarter, really steep depreciation. And while that causes some headwinds in the near term, and it's going to cause some headwinds just in wholesale a little bit and even on the retail side. It's a short-term thing, and I think it benefits the overall used car industry, and it will benefit us because that will continue to come out on front (inaudible) prices. You saw we're about $1,300 down this year, year-over-year on sales prices. From an acquisition standpoint, it was more like $1,500, but we had some mix adjustment stuff in there.

    就本季的情況和前景而言,顯然,該行業仍然面臨挑戰,每個人都知道這一點。顯然,我們的業務並未達到我們想要的目標。但我確實認為有一些令人鼓舞的跡象。我的意思是,除了我們繼續連續改善這一事實之外,本季度我們還看到了很多貶值,非常陡峭的貶值。雖然這會在短期內造成一些阻力,但只會在批發方面甚至在零售方面造成一些阻力。這是一個短期的事情,我認為這有利於整個二手車行業,也有利於我們,因為這將繼續出現在前面(聽不清楚)的價格上。您看到,我們今年的銷售價格比去年同期下降了約 1,300 美元。從收購的角度來看,它更像是 1,500 美元,但我們在那裡進行了一些組合調整。

  • So again, I think the steep depreciation is good. Interest rates if they at least stabilize, I think that's great. I think it's great for the business. I think that will help. And if they come down, I think that will be kind of extra icing on the cake. Another thing that I would point to is our market share, October, which is the latest period that we've gotten market share data on is the first month that we've actually comped our market share year-over-year. So I think that's encouraging.

    再次強調,我認為大幅貶值是好事。如果利率至少穩定下來,我認為那就太好了。我認為這對企業來說非常有利。我認為這會有幫助。如果它們下降,我認為這將是錦上添花。我要指出的另一件事是我們的市場份額,十月份,這是我們獲得市場份額數據的最新時期,也是我們實際同比市場份額的第一個月。所以我覺得這令人鼓舞。

  • And then the other thing I would tell you is -- we've talked before about just comps and where the sales might be going. And we've done some analysis with one of the credit bureaus just trying to understand of the customers that apply for a loan through CAF, where do they go? And it seems like from the analysis we've done, there's a lot of customers that just once they decide they're not buying, they're not buying. So it's almost like there's a -- maybe hopefully, there's some pent-up demand that I think we'll see as the market comes back. So again, I think while there's some signs of encouragement, yes, the industry is still challenged. We're encouraged by that. And I think taking all that into consideration, also just bearing in mind, this whole time we've been working on cost control, becoming more efficient, having better experiences for our customers and our associates. I think all that plays well too into the future. So hopefully, that's helpful.

    然後我要告訴你的另一件事是 - 我們之前只討論過比較和銷售可能的方向。我們與一家信用機構進行了一些分析,試圖了解透過 CAF 申請貸款的客戶,他們去了哪裡?從我們所做的分析來看,似乎有很多客戶一旦決定不購買,就不會購買。所以這幾乎就像是——也許有希望的是,隨著市場的復甦,我們會看到一些被壓抑的需求。所以,我再次認為,雖然有一些令人鼓舞的跡象,但該行業仍面臨挑戰。我們對此感到鼓舞。我認為考慮到所有這些,也請記住,我們一直致力於成本控制,提高效率,為我們的客戶和員工提供更好的體驗。我認為這一切在未來也將發揮良好作用。希望這會有所幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll turn now to Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

    我們現在請韋德布希證券公司的塞思‧巴沙姆 (Seth Basham) 來演講。

  • Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

    Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

  • My question is also on CAF. Jon, could you give us some more color on those securitizations from late '21 through 2022 in terms of your expectations that the loss curves are going to flatten out because we haven't really seen that in the data yet.

    我的問題也是關於CAF的。 Jon,您能否給我們更多關於從 21 年底到 2022 年這些證券化的信息,因為您對損失曲線將趨於平緩的預期,因為我們還沒有在數據中真正看到這一點。

  • Jon Daniels

    Jon Daniels

  • Yes. I appreciate the question. Yes, I think the key thing to point to here is if you look at -- obviously, what's published out there right now is I think the 2019 stuff going forward. If you pull back and you look at sort of the 2016, '17, '18 stuff that I think is -- you probably have access to stuff. And you look at the typical shape of that curve, what we absolutely are seeing is the '21, 3 the '21, 4, looks like it's turning over. Now everybody is going to trend it their own way. But when we look at that and you look at the timing of loss, we absolutely see these things coming in certainly within our targeted range.

    是的。我很欣賞這個問題。是的,我認為這裡要指出的關鍵是,如果你看一下——顯然,現在發布的內容是我認為 2019 年的未來內容。如果你回過頭來看看 2016 年、17 年、18 年的東西,我認為你可能有機會接觸到這些東西。你看看那條曲線的典型形狀,我們絕對看到的是“21, 3”和“21, 4”,看起來正在翻轉。現在每個人都會以自己的方式流行。但是,當我們考慮這一點並考慮損失的時間時,我們絕對會看到這些事情肯定在我們的目標範圍內。

  • The '22, 1 and the '22, 2 we're watching very closely, looks like that's beginning to turn over. Admittedly, the '22, 3, '22, 4 earlier in the life have not yet turned over, and so we're watching that very carefully. But neither had those previous ones I mentioned at the point at which they exist. So all of this, when we trended out, we know the subsegments that are in there, we know how they perform and how early the loss comes. We absolutely believe all of this is coming in, in the 2% to 2.5% range, which is truly our target. So does that give you the color you need, Seth, anything further on that?

    我們正在密切關注的 '22, 1 和 '22, 2,看起來情況正在開始轉變。誠然,生命早期的「22、3、22、4」還沒有轉變,所以我們正在非常仔細地觀察。但我之前提到的那些在它們存在時也沒有。因此,當我們進行趨勢分析時,我們知道其中的子細分,我們知道它們的表現如何以及損失發生的時間有多早。我們絕對相信所有這些都會在 2% 到 2.5% 的範圍內實現,這確實是我們的目標。那麼這是否給了你你需要的顏色,Seth,還有什麼進一步的嗎?

  • Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

    Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

  • That's helpful. Of the securitizations you have outstanding, are you forecasting losses for any of them above that 2% to 2.5% range?

    這很有幫助。在您持有的未償證券化中,您預測其中任何一個的損失是否會高於 2% 至 2.5% 的範圍?

  • Jon Daniels

    Jon Daniels

  • For those -- for the securitizations we have today because, again, we have the luxury of breaking that down by subsegment by different pockets. And we right now do not see anything above the 2.5%. Again, that's -- and again, that's a target. Yes. Not saying that anything is going to come above there. If something came up at 2.5%, 2.55% at the end of the day, we will reserve for it accordingly. It will be what it is. But no, right now, we do not see that. And I think the only other point I'll make is, again, this is what has been securitized to date. Bear in mind, and I think you're well aware of this, Seth. It's 4, 5, 6 months before it ends up in securitization, a bulk of our tightening has absolutely occurred over the last year. So I fully expect as that stuff hits the market, you're going to see clearly the evidence of the tightening that we have done over the last year.

    對於這些——對於我們今天擁有的證券化,因為我們再次有幸透過不同的口袋進行細分。我們現在沒有看到任何高於 2.5% 的數據。這又是一個目標。是的。並不是說上面會有任何東西。如果當天結束時出現2.5%、2.55%的情況,我們將相應保留。事情就會如此。但不,現在我們還沒有看到這一點。我想我要強調的唯一一點是,這就是迄今為止已被證券化的東西。請記住,我想你很清楚這一點,賽斯。距離最終證券化還有 4、5、6 個月的時間,我們大部分的緊縮政策絕對是在去年發生的。因此,我完全預計,當這些東西進入市場時,您將清楚地看到我們去年採取的緊縮政策的證據。

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • As Jon had mentioned, a lot of the receivables that we don't see are in our warehouses, right? It's about, what, 60% roughly of what you'll see are in the securitization data that's public, but there's a good chunk of receivables that are not necessarily public because they're in the warehouses and they are in alternative facilities. And that's really where you see a lot of that tightening. That's blending into the overall loss rate.

    正如喬恩所提到的,很多我們看不到的應收帳款都在我們的倉庫裡,對吧?你所看到的大約 60% 是在公開的證券化資料中,但有很大一部分應收帳款不一定是公開的,因為它們位於倉庫中並且位於替代設施中。這確實是你看到很多緊縮的地方。這已融入整體損失率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll go next to Craig Kennison with Baird.

    我們將和貝爾德一起去克雷格·肯尼森旁邊。

  • Craig R. Kennison - Director of Research Operations and Senior Research Analyst

    Craig R. Kennison - Director of Research Operations and Senior Research Analyst

  • I had a question on AI. At your Analyst Day a few months ago, you highlighted several ways in which your tech team was driving innovation. I guess I'm wondering, very big picture, whether you see AI as a technology that is going to level the playing field for other used car retailers or rather might be a wedge technology that really does ultimately separate winners from losers.

    我有一個關於人工智慧的問題。在幾個月前的分析師日上,您強調了技術團隊推動創新的幾種方式。我想我想知道,從大局來看,你是否將人工智慧視為一種將為其他二手車零售商提供公平競爭環境的技術,或者更確切地說可能是一種真正最終將贏家與輸家區分開來的楔子技術。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, thank you for the question, Craig. Well, first of all, I think we kind of have to separate AI versus generative AI because AI has been around a long time. We've been leveraging it for a long time in a lot of different aspects of the business. And when we talked about it most recently at the day that you're referring, it was really more generative AI. And I think at some point, folks will be embracing generative AI.

    是的。嗯,謝謝你的提問,克雷格。嗯,首先,我認為我們必須將人工智慧與生成式人工智慧分開,因為人工智慧已經存在很久了。長期以來,我們一直在業務的許多不同方面利用它。當我們最近在你提到的那一天談論它時,它實際上是更俱生成性的人工智慧。我認為在某個時候,人們將會擁抱生成式人工智慧。

  • I think the early adopters are the ones that get the benefit in the near term. And as you referenced, I mean, we're leveraging in a lot of different spots. We're leveraging in our creative. We're leveraging it in our coding. We're working on some generative AI assistance on a knowledge base for our CECs, which we think is going to be really powerful. We're leveraging it on a conversational search.

    我認為早期採用者是那些在短期內受益的人。正如您所提到的,我的意思是,我們正在許多不同的地方發揮作用。我們正在利用我們的創意。我們在編碼中利用它。我們正在為 CEC 的知識庫提供一些生成式人工智慧輔助,我們認為這將非常強大。我們將其用於對話式搜尋。

  • We've got some tests going on right now where instead of typing in key search things, we can actually do conversational search with consumers. So again, I don't -- I think it's one of those things that's kind of going to be at the end of the day, you just need to have it. And if you don't, you're going to be at a disadvantage. So I think those that embrace it earlier actually get an early benefit of embracing it.

    我們現在正在進行一些測試,我們實際上可以與消費者進行對話式搜索,而不是輸入關鍵的搜尋內容。再說一次,我不會——我認為這是最終會發生的事情之一,你只需要擁有它。如果你不這樣做,你就會處於不利地位。所以我認為那些較早接受它的人實際上會從早期接受它中受益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll turn now to Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

    我們現在請摩根大通的拉賈古普塔 (Rajat Gupta) 發言。

  • Rajat Gupta - Research Analyst

    Rajat Gupta - Research Analyst

  • I had a follow-up question on CAF around net interest margin. Should we look at that 5.9% as a low here and stable around that level going forward? I just wanted to clarify that and just have one quick follow-up on SG&A.

    我對 CAF 有一個關於淨利差的後續問題。我們是否應該將 5.9% 視為此處的低點並在未來穩定在該水平附近?我只是想澄清這一點,並就 SG&A 進行快速跟進。

  • Jon Daniels

    Jon Daniels

  • Sure. Yes. I appreciate the question, Rajat. Yes, I think that's a fair thought, right? I mean we signaled a couple of quarters ago that we felt like that 6% range was about where we're going to level off. Remember, we're coming off of relatively historic high. So we've been pleased that our ability to pass this rate along to the customer. Obviously, there was a shock in the interest rate market. So said it was coming, those higher interest rates were coming and it clearly has helped us to level off. So we're pleased where we sit right now.

    當然。是的。我很欣賞這個問題,拉賈特。是的,我認為這是一個公平的想法,對嗎?我的意思是,我們在幾個季度前就曾發出訊號,表示我們認為 6% 的範圍即將趨於平穩。請記住,我們正在從相對歷史高點回落。因此,我們很高興能夠將這一價格傳遞給客戶。顯然,利率市場出現了震盪。所以說它即將到來,更高的利率即將到來,這顯然幫助我們趨於平穩。所以我們很高興我們現在坐的位置。

  • And I think we would anticipate stabilizing at this level. Obviously, all bets are off to where the Fed heads, Hopefully, rates aren't going up. If they remain stable, we think we're in a good spot. If they come down and turn down as a reminder, typically rate increases lag when rates go up and rate decreases lag when rates come down. So hopefully, potentially, we could enjoy some added margin on the way down. But right now, I think we're in a stable spot.

    我認為我們預計會穩定在這個水平。顯然,所有的賭注都集中在聯準會的走向上,希望利率不會上升。如果它們保持穩定,我們認為我們處於有利位置。如果它們作為提醒而下降和下降,通常當利率上升時利率上升滯後,當利率下降時利率下降滯後。因此,希望我們能夠在下跌過程中享受一些額外的利潤。但現在,我認為我們處於穩定的位置。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Rajat, I just would add. Look, I think Jon has done a good job of kind of saying, look, we expect to be in this range. We said we were [61] in the last couple of quarters, give us a little wiggle room depending on what the cost of funds in here, it's down a little bit, but it's really reflected the cost of funds. So I think the way we think about it is it's really no change in story, as Jon said.

    是的,拉賈特,我只是補充一下。看,我認為喬恩做得很好,他說,看,我們期望在這個範圍內。我們說過去幾季我們是[61],給我們一點迴旋餘地,取決於這裡的資金成本,它下降了一點,但它確實反映了資金成本。所以我認為我們的想法是,正如喬恩所說,故事確實沒有改變。

  • Rajat Gupta - Research Analyst

    Rajat Gupta - Research Analyst

  • Understood. And just on SG&A, I mean, it looks like there are some continued actions you are taking there on the head count side. Can you give us a sense of what areas are these taking place at? Is it the CECs, or salespeople or Edmund. And any -- and is this an indication of your view on the market backdrop in any way in the near to medium term? And relatedly, could you quantify how much the impact was from the bonus accruals this quarter as well?

    明白了。我的意思是,就SG&A 而言,看起來你們在人員統計方面正在採取一些持續的行動。您能為我們介紹一下這些活動發生在哪些地區嗎?是 CEC、銷售人員還是艾德蒙。以及任何—這是否表明您對中短期市場背景的看法?與此相關的是,您能否量化本季應計獎金的影響有多大?

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • That was a multi-pronged question there, Rajat. If I miss one, just...

    Rajat,這是一個多方面的問題。如果我錯過了一個,就...

  • Rajat Gupta - Research Analyst

    Rajat Gupta - Research Analyst

  • Sorry.

    對不起。

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • If I miss one, just remind me what the question was. In terms of where the reductions have been when it comes to compensation, which I think was your first question, it's really been across the board. We've had, compared to last year, almost a 10% decrease in our head count when it comes to SG&A. And that's been across the board in our CECs. It's been in the business offices and the stores and the field, sales, consultants down as well. So what you're really looking at is tight control of our overhead in compensation, better matching to sales, but also really driving efficiency.

    如果我錯過了一個,請提醒我問題是什麼。就薪酬方面的削減而言,我認為這是你的第一個問題,這確實是全面的。與去年相比,我們的 SG&A 員工人數減少了近 10%。這在我們的 CEC 中是全面的。它已經存在於商務辦公室、商店和現場、銷售、顧問中。因此,您真正關注的是嚴格控制我們的薪酬管理費用,更好地匹配銷售,同時真正提高效率。

  • We continue to see quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year improvements in the efficiency of the omni model. And we've talked about that on 2 of the 3 metrics that we track in terms of the impact of omni on total units, so used plus wholesale, we're more efficient than we used to be at this point. When you look at as a percent of total gross profit, we're more efficient than we used to be versus when we launched omni.

    我們繼續看到全向模型的效率逐季、逐年提高。我們已經討論了我們追蹤的 3 個指標中的 2 個指標,即全向對總單位的影響,因此使用加上批發,我們現在比以前更有效率。當你看一下佔總毛利的百分比時,我們比推出全向時的效率更高。

  • And one indicator, we're still not as efficient, but we're working our way there is the omni operating model as compared on a per retail unit basis. Our goal is to be more efficient, but we're not quite there yet. So we feel really good about the progress we're making. And what that really does, that focus on efficiency positions us really well for when sales rebound and they will. And when they do, we do expect to flow through those sales at a stronger clip. I think that was one of your questions.

    有一個指標是,我們的效率仍然不高,但與每個零售單位相比,我們正在努力建立全方位營運模式。我們的目標是提高效率,但目前還沒有完全實現。因此,我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。而這真正的作用是,當銷售反彈時,對效率的關注使我們真正處於有利地位,而且他們會反彈。當他們這樣做時,我們確實期望以更強勁的速度完成這些銷售。我認為這是你的問題之一。

  • Rajat Gupta - Research Analyst

    Rajat Gupta - Research Analyst

  • The other was like just on the continued reductions in any way trying to -- or is it an indication of like the market backdrop in any way? Is there a view that you're taking on the volume recovery here, over the next few quarters? And then the third part of the question was just what would the -- if you could quantify the impact from the bonus accruals in the third quarter.

    另一個問題就像是試圖以任何方式持續減少——或者這是否表明市場背景在任何方面?您是否認為未來幾季銷售將恢復?然後問題的第三部分是,如果你可以量化第三季應計獎金的影響,那麼會發生什麼事。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Rajat, this is Bill. I'll take the first part. Enrique, you take SG&A. As far as -- look, if you look at our staffing, I think for this whole year, we've been fairly stable. Like Enrique said, we're down about 10%, but head count total has been fairly consistent to the last few quarters. And I think we've really put ourselves in a position that we can be very nimble here. So depending on what happens with the business, if the business picks up, we feel really good about where we are from a staffing-wise, we can manage hours that kind of thing. If the business took a downturn for some reason, we also feel like we have some flexibility. So I think we've really kind of given ourselves a nimbleness that we feel good about going forward. And then I'll pass to you.

    拉賈特,這是比爾。我將採取第一部分。恩里克,你負責 SG&A。就我們的人員配置而言,我認為這一整年我們都相當穩定。正如 Enrique 所說,我們下降了約 10%,但總人數與過去幾季相當一致。我認為我們確實處於一個可以非常靈活的位置。因此,根據業務情況,如果業務好轉,我們對人員配備方面的狀況感到非常滿意,我們可以管理工作時間之類的事情。如果業務因為某些原因陷入低迷,我們也會覺得我們有一定的彈性。所以我認為我們確實給了自己一種靈活性,讓我們對前進感覺良好。然後我會傳給你。

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. But the corporate bonus pace within compensation. So very specifically, that was about $5 million in the quarter in terms of favorability.

    是的。但公司獎金的步伐在薪酬範圍內。非常具體地說,就好感度而言,本季約為 500 萬美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Will turn now to Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

    現在轉向 Scot Ciccarelli 和 Truist。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • So I have a follow-up on the affordability issues. Do you guys think you need to get back to 2019 levels and affordability to get your 2019 volume levels back to -- get back to on a 2019 levels on a per store basis? And then related to that, any insight you guys could provide in 4Q? I think investors have generally been expecting comps to turn positive in 4Q just due to easy comparisons, but I believe some of the third-party data suggest trends might be still negative. I appreciate that.

    所以我跟進了負擔能力問題。你們認為你們是否需要回到 2019 年的水平和承受能力才能讓 2019 年的銷量水準回到 2019 年每家商店的水平?與此相關,你們可以在第四季度提供任何見解嗎?我認為,由於簡單的比較,投資者普遍預期第四季度的業績將轉為正數,但我相信一些第三方數據表明趨勢可能仍為負面。我很感激。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Sure, Scot. I think on the first part of you question, you're talking about affordability. And I assume you're talking about the price of cars where it was in 2019 versus where it is today? Am I interpreting the question, right?

    是的。當然,斯科特。我認為你問題的第一部分是關於負擔能力。我假設您談論的是 2019 年與今天的汽車價格?我正在解釋這個問題嗎?

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • Correct?

    正確的?

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Look, I don't think -- I'd be hard pressed to say that I think we'll get back to the 2019 levels. I do think there's plenty of room -- back 2019, I think average sales price was $20,000. This period, it was a little over $27,000 and I think it's -- we'll get back down hopefully in the low 20s, low 20s or so, maybe mid- like $25,000 or so, all of those are better than where they are today. And we already see kind of year-over-year where our under $20,000 cars and our under $25,000 cars, we're making progress there. So we think that's a good sign. But do I think they'll get all the way there. I don't think so, partly because just new cars are becoming more and more expensive.

    聽著,我不認為——我很難說我們會回到 2019 年的水平。我確實認為有足夠的空間——2019 年,我認為平均售價為 20,000 美元。這段時期,價格略高於 27,000 美元,我認為——我們希望能回到 20 多歲、20 多歲左右,也許是 25,000 美元左右,所有這些都比今天的情況要好。我們已經看到,我們的 20,000 美元以下的汽車和 25,000 美元以下的汽車正在逐年取得進展。所以我們認為這是一個好兆頭。但我認為他們會一路走到那裡嗎?我不這麼認為,部分原因是新車變得越來越貴。

  • So I think the bigger thing there is what does that gap look like in the future? And then as far as comps go, yes, look, I think the market, it's been a little choppy and from a consumer demand standpoint, if I look at the 3 months of the quarter, it was choppy. I mean, September was our best month, although it was still negative. October was the lowest month, November was similar to October, although it was a little -- it was better than -- November was better than October, although they were similar. And then December is similar to November, although right now, it's a little bit better.

    所以我認為更重要的是未來這種差距會是什麼樣子?就比較而言,是的,看,我認為市場有點波動,從消費者需求的角度來看,如果我看看本季的 3 個月,市場波動很大。我的意思是,九月是我們最好的一個月,儘管仍然是負面的。 10 月是最低的月份,11 月與 10 月相似,儘管有一點——好於——11 月比 10 月好,儘管它們很相似。然後 12 月與 11 月類似,儘管現在好一點。

  • So I think we're continuing to monitor elasticity, doing the things that we need to do. And I'm hopeful that as we see some of this depreciation manifest itself but on the front line. I think that will be good for the industry going forward.

    所以我認為我們將繼續監控彈性,做我們需要做的事情。我希望,當我們看到這種貶值的一部分在前線顯現出來時。我認為這對產業的未來發展是有利的。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • Bill, I guess my question is on the affordability issue. Like do you need -- how much improvement do you need in affordability to get your volume back on a kind of a per store basis to what you saw in 2019?

    比爾,我想我的問題是負擔能力問題。例如,您需要在承受能力方面做出多少改進,才能使每家商店的銷售量恢復到 2019 年的水平?

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Look, it's a hard question to be able to exactly answer what that needs to be. I think that, again, I think we can get back on to the comp growth without having to get back to 2019. And again, we've seen sequential improvements this year even though the prices haven't come down dramatically from the start of the year. So it's a hard question to answer, Scot, but look, our goal is to get back on to the comp growth. And in reality, if I look at first 10 months of this calendar year, which we have market share data for versus the last 6 months of last year. We're doing better from a market share standpoint for the first 10 months than we were the last 6 months of last year, which I think is encouraging. We haven't comped total year-over-year yet because the first half of last year was so strong. But as I said earlier, I'm encouraged by the fact that October is the first month we have month-over-month market share -- a year-over-year market share growth.

    是的。聽著,要準確回答這個問題是一個很難的問題。我認為,我認為我們可以重新回到複合成長,而不必回到 2019 年。同樣,我們今年已經看到了連續的改善,儘管價格從年初開始並沒有大幅下降。那一年。所以這是一個很難回答的問題,史考特,但你看,我們的目標是恢復公司的成長。事實上,如果我看一下今年前 10 個月,我們有與去年最後 6 個月相比的市佔率數據。從市佔率的角度來看,我們前 10 個月的表現比去年最後 6 個月好,我認為這令人鼓舞。我們還沒有比較去年同期的整體情況,因為去年上半年的表現非常強勁。但正如我之前所說,十月份是我們市場份額環比增長(市場份額同比增長)的第一個月,這一事實令我感到鼓舞。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll go now to John Healy with Northcoast Research.

    現在我們邀請北海岸研究中心的約翰希利 (John Healy)。

  • John Michael Healy - MD & Equity Research Analyst

    John Michael Healy - MD & Equity Research Analyst

  • Just wanted to ask, Bill, just your expectations kind of maybe on this year's tax season, it's just around the corner. And what you see as kind of maybe pluses or minuses. I don't know (inaudible) we all fixate on kind of the monthly trends, but anything relating to tax season, how you guys are feeling like that might impact this year's business or any kind of other exogenous factors that might go into kind of maybe how we see February or March demand levels kind of materialize?

    只是想問一下,比爾,你對今年報稅季的期望可能就在眼前。你所看到的可能是優點或缺點。我不知道(聽不清楚)我們都關注月度趨勢,但是與報稅季相關的任何事情,你們的感受可能會影響今年的業務或任何其他可能影響稅收的外生因素也許我們認為二月或三月的需求水準會如何實現?

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, I'll tell you, John, if you know, I appreciate a call afterwards, and let's talk about it if you know the answer to that. I don't -- right now, I don't foresee -- there's nothing I can say that would say, okay, tax season is going to be dramatically different than last year. I mean I think in tax season, you expect to sell more cars, I think it will be similar. I think what's going to be interesting is last year, at the beginning of the calendar year, there was really steep appreciation in vehicles. And I think it will be interesting. We aren't counting on that steep appreciation. So it will be interesting to see the year-over-year dynamics of that from a pricing standpoint. But as we sit here right now, we're kind of planning a tax season that was similar to last year because we don't really see any signs that make it dramatically different.

    是的,我會告訴你,約翰,如果你知道的話,我很感激之後給我打電話,如果你知道答案的話,讓我們談談。我不——現在,我不預見——我不能說,好吧,納稅季節將與去年有很大不同。我的意思是,我認為在納稅季節,您預計會銷售更多汽車,我認為情況會類似。我認為有趣的是去年年初,汽車價格確實大幅上漲。我認為這會很有趣。我們並不指望這種急劇升值。因此,從定價的角度來看其逐年動態將會很有趣。但當我們現在坐在這裡時,我們正在計劃一個與去年類似的納稅季節,因為我們並沒有真正看到任何使其顯著不同的跡象。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll go now to Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

    現在我們將與威廉·布萊爾一起請莎朗·扎克菲亞發言。

  • Sharon Zackfia - Partner & Group Head of Consumer

    Sharon Zackfia - Partner & Group Head of Consumer

  • I guess a follow-up on that. Have you changed the way you show inventory on the website? Because it does look like there's been a big inventory build so far in the last few months. And if you're not expecting kind of a [sea] change in the tax refund season, I'm just curious on why we're seeing that inventory build?

    我想對此會有後續行動。您是否更改了網站上顯示庫存的方式?因為過去幾個月到目前為止,庫存似乎確實存在大量增加。如果您預計退稅季節不會發生[海]變化,我只是好奇為什麼我們會看到庫存增加?

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Sharon, that's a great question. And what you're seeing there is, if you look at the average saleable inventory for the quarter, year-over-year, and the average, it's very similar to last year. If you look at the end of the quarter, to your point, it's up. And the reality is total inventory is up a little bit, and it's up in salable versus nonsalable. And the reason it's up in salable is because we're planning some production shutdown.

    是的,莎倫,這是一個很好的問題。你所看到的是,如果你看看本季的平均可售庫存、年比以及平均值,你會發現它與去年非常相似。如果你看看本季末,就你的觀點而言,它已經結束了。現實情況是總庫存略有增加,而且可售庫存與不可銷售庫存增加。它的銷量上升的原因是我們計劃停產一些。

  • If you remember, last year, the holiday fell on the weekend well, we don't build cars on the weekend. This year, it falls on a day, both January, but the 1st and December 25th fall on weekdays. And we want to give our folks time off and be able to join the holidays. So we actually did a little bit of a prebuild early on to make sure that we took in consideration that we want to have the shops closed and give time off for the holiday. So it's really -- that's kind of what you're seeing. There is a little bit of year-over-year dynamics as well, but that's the bulk of what you're seeing.

    如果你還記得的話,去年的假期正好在週末,我們週末不生產汽車。今年,這一天都是一月,但1日和12月25日都是工作日。我們希望給我們的家人放假並能夠參加假期。因此,我們實際上很早就做了一些預建工作,以確保我們考慮到我們希望關閉商店並在假期中放假。所以這確實是——這就是你所看到的。也有一些同比動態,但這就是您所看到的大部分內容。

  • Sharon Zackfia - Partner & Group Head of Consumer

    Sharon Zackfia - Partner & Group Head of Consumer

  • Okay. And any (inaudible) progress yet on kind of how you're viewing expansion from a unit standpoint for next year?

    好的。從單位的角度來看,您如何看待明年的擴張,有什麼(聽不清楚)進展嗎?

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • For new locations? Yes, we'll provide that guidance in -- we usually provide that guidance in our Q4 call, and that's what we'll intend to do. .

    對於新地點?是的,我們將在 - 我們通常在第四季度的電話會議中提供該指導,這就是我們打算做的。 。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll go next to Chris Bottiglieri with BNP Paribas.

    接下來我們將介紹法國巴黎銀行的 Chris Bottiglieri。

  • Christopher James Bottiglieri - Research Analyst

    Christopher James Bottiglieri - Research Analyst

  • I was just hoping you could elaborate on the comment on not expecting to see a profit share in ESP. Would you expect F&I in Q4 to be similar to Q3? Is the historical seasonal difference primarily profit share? And then does that have any spillover effect into next fiscal year, like in terms of how you set the -- I don't know, like anyway, just is there any spillover effect from the lower Q4 profit share?

    我只是希望你能詳細解釋一下關於不希望看到 ESP 利潤分成的評論。您預計第四季的 F&I 與第三季相似嗎?歷史季節性差異主要是利潤份額嗎?然後,這是否會對下一個財年產生任何溢出效應,就像你如何設定一樣——我不知道,無論如何,第四季度利潤份額較低是否會產生任何溢出效應?

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Chris. The seasonal effect is really more related to sales, right? And as sales map, so ESP penetration in dollars. So the only thing we've seen in the past couple of years is really in the fourth quarter where we've seen that profit share from our partners materialized at the end of the quarter. And last year was pretty material. I think it was over $15 million. And so I wanted to make sure we called that out. Just given the inflationary pressures that our partners have seen over the past year, it's just made their profitability a little bit more pinched. And at the end of the day, when we look for profit share, there needs to be a certain amount that they're seeing for us to have that -- to share in that. So what we've anticipated so far for this year is that we will not see that profit share. But again, that's really due to inflationary pressures that our partners are seeing.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,克里斯。季節性效應確實與銷量關係較大,對嗎?如銷售地圖所示,ESP 的滲透率以美元計算。因此,過去幾年我們唯一看到的情況是在第四季度,我們看到合作夥伴的利潤份額在季度末實現。去年是非常重要的一年。我認為它超過了 1500 萬美元。所以我想確保我們已經明確了這一點。考慮到我們的合作夥伴在過去一年中所面臨的通膨壓力,這只是讓他們的獲利能力更加緊張。歸根結底,當我們尋求利潤分成時,他們認為我們需要有一定數量的利潤才能分享。因此,我們今年到目前為止的預期是,我們不會看到這樣的利潤分成。但同樣,這實際上是由於我們的合作夥伴所面臨的通膨壓力。

  • Christopher James Bottiglieri - Research Analyst

    Christopher James Bottiglieri - Research Analyst

  • Got you. Okay. And then I was hoping you could kind of elaborate on the warehouse portfolio. It's roughly 2/3 the size of the kind of securitized stuff. Like could you just maybe tell us a little bit more about what's in there? What's the average age today versus the securitized portfolio. If you were to look at these like nonsecuritized non-Tier 2, 3 test receivables, like how does the loss performance of those vintages compared to like the like-for-like vintages that are in the securitized book? It sounds like you're signaling that it's better, but I was hoping you can just kind of elaborate on that a little bit more.

    明白你了。好的。然後希望你能詳細介紹一下倉庫投資組合。它大約是證券化產品規模的 2/3。能告訴我們更多關於裡面有什麼嗎?與證券化投資組合相比,今天的平均年齡是多少?如果您將這些視為非證券化非二級、三級測試應收帳款,那麼這些年份的損失表現與證券化帳簿中的同類年份相比如何?聽起來你是在暗示情況會更好,但我希望你能詳細說明一下。

  • Jon Daniels

    Jon Daniels

  • Sure. Yes, I'll take that one, Chris. Yes, really, our warehouse lines provide that short-term funding until we take it to an ABS market or we look at other instruments to do a more permanent funding solution there. But our conduit lines right now primarily hold the newest assets until we take them to the market. So you've got -- this quarter stuff is going to sit there. Last quarter stuff is going to sit there. Let's call that $4 billion. There could be some spillover as well.

    當然。是的,我要那個,克里斯。是的,確實,我們的倉庫線提供短期資金,直到我們將其引入 ABS 市場,或者我們尋找其他工具來在那裡提供更持久的資金解決方案。但我們的管道目前主要持有最新的資產,直到我們將它們推向市場。因此,本季的內容將放在那裡。上個季度的東西將放在那裡。我們稱之為 40 億美元。也可能會有一些溢出效應。

  • So as we've mentioned, we've done significant tightening certainly from the Tier 3 and Tier 2. But if we isolate the Tier 1, we've tightened in the Tier 1 space. So we would absolutely expect those Tier 1 assets to perform better than what's in the securitization. Again, all of it, we think it performs very well. But from a loss perspective, in particular, that conduit stuff is going to be a lower loss than what you're seeing in the most recent securitizations.

    正如我們所提到的,我們確實從第 3 層和第 2 層進行了重大收緊。但如果我們隔離第 1 層,我們就在第 1 層空間收緊了。因此,我們絕對預期這些一級資產的表現優於證券化資產。再說一遍,我們認為它的表現非常好。但特別是從損失的角度來看,管道產品的損失將低於您在最近的證券化中看到的損失。

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • The receivables will tend to sit in our warehouses for between 3 to 6, 7 months, right, until the time we pay then go into the securitizations. And so that's why you see a little bit of a timing delay, right, between the performance of those two buckets of receivables.

    應收帳款往往會在我們的倉庫中存放 3 到 6、7 個月,對吧,直到我們付款然後進入證券化。這就是為什麼你會看到這兩類應收帳款的表現之間存在一點時間延遲,對吧。

  • Christopher James Bottiglieri - Research Analyst

    Christopher James Bottiglieri - Research Analyst

  • Got you. Just one last quick one, just (inaudible) brought it up. The seasoning has been ticking up a little bit. Is that -- is there any -- I know some of it is the Tier 2, Tier 3, but is that just the ABS markets still aren't perfectly loose, you're just not secure as much as you would like to or why -- I guess why is it seasoning up a little bit versus what we might have seen pre-COVID?

    明白你了。只是最後一個快速的,只是(聽不清楚)提出來的。調味料已經有點了。我知道其中一些是二級、三級,但 ABS 市場仍然沒有完全寬鬆,你只是沒有像你希望的那樣安全,或者為什麼——我想為什麼與我們在新冠疫情之前可能看到的情況相比,現在的情況加劇?

  • Jon Daniels

    Jon Daniels

  • Sure. Yes. I think that really comes down to volume. I mean, we're obviously a ton of sales, CAF continues to originate $2 billion a quarter we look at the securitization market and we try and match the amount of the volume that we put into each deal with the demand that's out there, obviously, with our growth. We're doing about $1.5 billion each deal times four deals. We're originating about $8 billion. That has great -- a year. That has grown over time. So therefore, naturally, it has to sit a little bit longer than the warehouses. I don't think it's anything unique going on there. It's just purely a timing thing.

    當然。是的。我認為這實際上取決於數量。我的意思是,我們顯然有大量的銷售額,CAF 每個季度繼續產生 20 億美元,我們著眼於證券化市場,我們嘗試將我們投入每筆交易的數量與那裡的需求相匹配,顯然,伴隨著我們的成長。每筆交易乘以四筆交易,我們的銷售額約為 15 億美元。我們籌集了大約 80 億美元。那已經很棒了——一年了。隨著時間的推移,這種情況不斷增長。因此,自然地,它的位置必須比倉庫長一點。我不認為那裡發生了什麼獨特的事情。這純粹是時間問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll go now to Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

    現在我們將邀請 Evercore ISI 的 Michael Montani。

  • Michael David Montani - MD

    Michael David Montani - MD

  • Yes. Wanted to ask, first off, on the provisioning front, we were thinking kind of $90 million plus seems to be a run rate trend and obviously, it came in better. So is that the right way to think about this, maybe starting with a six handle in the near term given some of the tightening that you've done and all that we know. And then I just had an SG&A follow-up.

    是的。首先想問一下,在供應方面,我們認為 9,000 萬美元以上似乎是運行率趨勢,顯然,它的表現更好。鑑於您已經完成的一些收緊工作以及我們所知道的一切,考慮到您已經完成的一些收緊工作,也許在短期內從六個手柄開始,這是考慮這個問題的正確方法嗎?然後我剛剛進行了 SG&A 跟進。

  • Jon Daniels

    Jon Daniels

  • Sure. Yes. So just to touch on the provision once again. Again, two main components. It's any change, we believe in the existing book of business versus what we had reserved for in the preceding quarter and then the new originations. The way I think about that is, let's take the second one first. New originations. We did $2 billion this year. There's a piece of Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3 business. We've cited Tier 3 is limited. Tier 2 is in test volume. Tier 1 is the bulk of it. .

    當然。是的。所以再次談談該條款。再次強調兩個主要組成部分。無論發生什麼變化,我們都相信現有的業務,而不是我們在上一季保留的業務,然後是新的業務。我的想法是,讓我們先考慮第二個。新的起源。今年我們做了 20 億美元。有一部分是一級、二級、三級業務。我們已經指出,第 3 級是有限的。第 2 層正處於測試階段。第 1 層是其中的大部分。 。

  • You sign an anticipated lifetime loss rate plus the cost to recover from a repossession standpoint, which is relatively small, but a sign up an overall expectation of the $2 billion. That's one piece of your provision. And then it's a function of how well we've reserved for it from the preceding quarter. As we mentioned this quarter, we felt like we've done a good job. Nothing we saw within the quarter performance suggested we were materially off -- and so that's how you ended up with $68 million. So I think you've got to bifurcate those two pieces and that's how you set your provision each successive quarter.

    您簽署了預期的終身損失率加上從收回的角度恢復的成本,雖然相對較小,但簽署了 20 億美元的整體預期。這是你提供的一部分。然後,它取決於我們上一季的預留情況。正如我們本季提到的,我們感覺我們做得很好。我們在季度業績中看到的任何情況都沒有表明我們出現了實質性的偏差,所以這就是您最終獲得 6800 萬美元的原因。所以我認為你必須將這兩個部分分開,這就是你在每個連續季度設定準備金的方式。

  • Michael David Montani - MD

    Michael David Montani - MD

  • And I guess just a follow up then on SG&A to gross. Is the mid-70s kind of near-term target still the right way to think about that level? And just overall, I mean, do we think that SG&A dollars can continue to come down in the near term if this is kind of the demand backdrop? Or do we start to build SG&A dollars to try to drive volume and share.

    我想這只是銷售、管理及行政費用 (SG&A) 總額的後續行動。 70 年代中期的近期目標仍然是思考該水平的正確方法嗎?總的來說,我的意思是,如果這是一種需求背景,我們認為SG&A 美元在短期內會繼續下降嗎?或者我們是否開始建立SG&A 美元來嘗試推動銷售和份額。

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So a couple of questions there. In terms of the mid-70% SG&A as a percent of gross profit, it's absolutely our next step that we've communicated. We've made material strides in driving efficiency in our business. And hitting that mid-70 is our next goal. But in addition to the cost management efforts that we've undertaken, we're also going to require the consumer to return with some strength. SG&A efficiency is also a function of gross profit. And so to hit that mid-70%, we are going to need to see some decent gross profit growth as well, but that's absolutely our next step. When it comes to SG&A kind of moving forward, again, we're proud of the material year-over-year reductions that we've been able to deliver.

    是的。有幾個問題。就 SG&A 佔毛利的 70% 左右而言,這絕對是我們已經溝通過的下一步。我們在提高業務效率方面取得了實質進展。達到 70 歲左右是我們的下一個目標。但除了我們已經採取的成本管理措施外,我們還將要求消費者以一定的實力回歸。 SG&A 效率也是毛利的函數。因此,為了達到 70% 左右的水平,我們還需要看到一些可觀的毛利成長,但這絕對是我們的下一步。當談到銷售、管理及行政費用方面的進展時,我們再次為我們能夠實現的同比大幅削減感到自豪。

  • And what I'll point out is that we've done that at the same time that we've improved our customer and our associate experience as we migrate further along in our omnichannel, right? And this focus on efficiency really positions us well for when sales rebound. Now for Q4, it will be a little bit more challenging as we've largely anniversaried over our cost levers. So Q4, I would tell you it will be more impacted by our sales performance in terms of that year-over-year SG&A dollar movement.

    我要指出的是,隨著我們在全通路的進一步遷移,我們在這樣做的同時也改善了我們的客戶和員工體驗,對吧?這種對效率的關注確實使我們在銷售反彈時處於有利地位。現在對於第四季來說,這將更具挑戰性,因為我們的成本槓桿已經基本週年紀念了。因此,我想告訴您,第四季度,就銷售業績及行政管理費用同比變動而言,它將更多地受到我們銷售業績的影響。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And generally, historically, Q3 to Q4, your SG&A does go up to the reasons you're pointing, which is more volume. And as Enrique said, volume-driven.

    是的。一般來說,從歷史上看,從第三季度到第四季度,您的銷售、管理費用確實會達到您所指出的原因,即銷售增加。正如恩里克所說,數量驅動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

  • John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

    John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

  • Just a question on inventory. I don't know if you can disclose this or if you have any information, but what do you think the average ASP is in your inventory that you'll sell out. I mean you've seen ASP come down about $2,000 from the peak, and we're still not getting the same-store sales comp lift that you might expect as that price is coming down. I'm just curious what's in inventory? And are you able to acquire inventory at lower prices going forward just to drive the comp?

    只是一個關於庫存的問題。我不知道你是否可以透露這一點,或者你是否有任何信息,但你認為你的庫存中的平均 ASP 是多少,你會賣掉。我的意思是,您已經看到 ASP 從高峰下降了約 2,000 美元,但隨著價格下降,我們仍然沒有獲得您可能期望的同店銷售比較提升。我只是好奇庫存裡有什麼?您是否能夠以較低的價格購買庫存,以推動競爭?

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, John. Yes, the -- within inventory now, keep in mind, what we sold through the quarter, it's more than 50% of that was bought prior to the quarter. So what's in inventory now is stuff that was bought during the quarter, which talked about, there's been some steep depreciation during the quarter, and we're continuing to see depreciation. So that should bring prices down. Keep in mind, though, just to kind of ground everyone in any given year, you need about -- just during the year, you need about $1,500 of depreciation, just to keep your sales prices flat, and that's just because as new cars come out, they're more expensive.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,約翰。是的,在現在的庫存中,請記住,我們整個季度銷售的產品,其中超過 50% 是在本季之前購買的。所以現在庫存中的是本季購買的東西,我們談到,本季出現了一些急劇的折舊,而且我們將繼續看到折舊。所以這應該會降低價格。但請記住,為了讓每個人在任何一年中都保持穩定,您需要- 僅在這一年中,您就需要大約1,500 美元的折舊,只是為了保持銷售價格持平,而這只是因為隨著新車的上市出來了,價格更貴。

  • So you really don't get much benefit until after you get over $1,500 on an annual basis. So I do -- we do feel while we don't disclose what we think the average price is, it is our inventory -- saleable inventory at this point is cheaper than what was sold in the quarter.

    因此,在您年收入超過 1,500 美元之前,您實際上不會獲得太多好處。所以我確實認為,雖然我們沒有透露我們認為的平均價格是多少,但這是我們的庫存——此時的可銷售庫存比本季銷售的庫存便宜。

  • John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

    John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

  • That's very helpful. And then just one follow-up on the market share. I mean, obviously, that's an output of what's going on in the market and your actions and competitive forces. I mean how do you think about what's going on in the competitive landscape? Because I mean if you think about a company like an automation at about 1.3 million used vehicles last year. Or on an LTM basis, they just stepped up their buying outside of their dealerships and they did about 100,000 units outside the dealerships from say had been doing before. So it just seems like that the franchise side, and that's one unique example, but are going after some of the same vehicles that you are even outside the traditional channels, are you seeing that as you're going out there and acquiring or is that just -- is that kind of a one-off?

    這非常有幫助。然後是市場份額的一項後續行動。我的意思是,顯然,這是市場上正在發生的事情以及你的行動和競爭力量的輸出。我的意思是,您如何看待競爭格局中正在發生的事情?因為我的意思是,如果你想想去年有一家像自動化公司這樣的公司,大約有 130 萬輛二手車。或者在 LTM 的基礎上,他們只是加大了在經銷商之外的購買力度,並且從之前的情況來看,他們在經銷商之外購買了大約 100,000 輛。因此,特許經營方面似乎是一個獨特的例子,但他們正在追求一些甚至在傳統管道之外的相同車輛,當你走出去併收購時,你是否看到了這一點,或者只是——這是一次性的嗎?

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • You mean as far as the acquisition of vehicles?

    你的意思是購買車輛?

  • John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

    John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

  • Well, I mean, the franchise dealers traditionally would take flow from the new vehicle, their trade-ins and other sources. But they've stepped outside of that traditional channel and are going out -- going out to third parties or not in auctions, but direct-to-consumer as well, and that was an incremental source of 100,000 units for them on an LTM basis, and that's just new, right? That's just incremental and new activity. So I'm just curious if that's unique to them or you're seeing that sort of more in general.

    嗯,我的意思是,特許經銷商傳統上會從新車、以舊換新和其他來源獲得流量。但他們已經走出了傳統管道,正在走出去——向第三方出售,或者不透過拍賣,而是直接面向消費者,這對他們來說是基於 LTM 的 100,000 件增量來源,這只是新的,對吧?這只是增量和新的活動。所以我很好奇這是否是他們獨有的,或者你看到的是普遍的情況。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. No, I think -- look, you're very aware of just kind of the volume that's out there in auctions, especially 0- to 4-year-old vehicles. And if folks are looking for that inventory, they got to be a little bit more creative. So it doesn't surprise me that other folks are doing that. Our 0 to 4 sales actually year-over-year went up a little bit. So I would -- I mean that's one data point that you have. I think all the dealers are just trying to get vehicles from wherever they can.

    是的。不,我想——你看,你非常清楚拍賣中的成交量,尤其是 0 到 4 年車齡的車輛。如果人們正在尋找庫存,他們必須更有創意。因此,其他人這樣做並不令我感到驚訝。我們的 0 到 4 銷售額實際上比去年同期有所上升。所以我會——我的意思是這是你擁有的一個數據點。我認為所有經銷商都只是想從任何可能的地方獲得車輛。

  • And that's why I'm excited about some of the product innovation when it comes to things like Max offer. When we talk about sales efficiency, that's just from the consumers we don't add in there, what we're getting from other dealers. And that product skews more retail than it does wholesale. So it doesn't surprise me that you have an example of that. I think folks that can do things like that, they're going to try to do that. And then there's a lot of competitors. Let me keep in mind, there's tens of thousands of competitors that sell 0 to 10-year-old cars. Some of them don't have that ability.

    這就是為什麼我對 Max Offer 等產品創新感到興奮。當我們談論銷售效率時,這只是我們沒有添加到其中的消費者,而是我們從其他經銷商那裡獲得的。該產品對零售的影響比對批發的影響更大。所以你有這樣的例子我並不感到驚訝。我認為那些能夠做到這樣的事情的人,他們會嘗試這樣做。然後還有很多競爭對手。讓我記住,有數以萬計的競爭對手銷售 0 到 10 年車齡的汽車。他們中的一些人不具備這種能力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our final question from David Whiston with Morningstar.

    我們將接受晨星公司大衛惠斯頓的最後一個問題。

  • David Whiston - Sector Strategist

    David Whiston - Sector Strategist

  • Just wanted to ask about advertising expense, which did go up year-over-year, whereas for the 9 months, it's down. What was the catalyst to make you increase spending this quarter is what I'm curious about?

    只是想問廣告費用,廣告費用確實比去年同期上漲,但在過去 9 個月裡卻有所下降。我很好奇是什麼促使你們在本季增加支出?

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, that's going to be very much a function just of our CapEx spend and the depreciation there. But then also when it comes to our technology spend, a good portion of our technology spend is going to be depreciated, right? And so you'll see that impact (inaudible) in our [DNA].

    是的,這很大程度上取決於我們的資本支出和折舊。但當談到我們的技術支出時,我們的技術支出的很大一部分將會貶值,對吧?所以你會在我們的 [DNA] 中看到這種影響(聽不清楚)。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think on the advertising piece. Look, we're in this for the long haul. And so we're going to spend money on brand, we're going to spend money on acquisition. Keep in mind, and we're trying to think about in the new year, how to talk about advertising. When we talk about advertising, keep in mind, that's advertising for sales, that's advertising for buy, that's advertising on Edmund. So all along, we've said, hey, we're going to spend more in the back half of the year, but it's going to be similar on a full year basis. And so we're actually executing it.

    是的。我想到了廣告片。聽著,我們是在做長期的事。因此,我們將在品牌上花錢,在收購上花錢。請記住,我們正在努力思考在新的一年如何談論廣告。當我們談論廣告時,請記住,這是銷售廣告,這是購買廣告,這是埃德蒙的廣告。因此,一直以來,我們都在說,嘿,我們將在今年下半年支出更多,但全年情況將相似。所以我們實際上正在執行它。

  • Now I don't want you to think that we're just like going in advertising. We're absolutely measuring the ROI. But what you got to realize is sometimes if the ROIs (inaudible) on sales, you may shift some to buys or you may shift some to Edmund. So it just depends on what's going on in a given quarter, but we would expect -- and generally, you spend a little bit more in the fourth quarter because it's -- you've got tax season coming, which is an increase in volume. So that's really what you're seeing.

    現在我不想讓你認為我們就像在做廣告一樣。我們絕對在衡量投資報酬率。但你必須意識到,有時如果銷售的投資回報率(聽不清楚),你可能會將一些投資轉向購買,或者你可能會將一些投資轉向埃德蒙。因此,這僅取決於特定季度的情況,但我們預計 - 一般來說,您在第四季度會花費更多一點,因為 - 報稅季節即將到來,即數量增加。這就是你所看到的。

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, David, sorry, I apologize. I thought you were asking about depreciation. .

    是的,大衛,對不起,我道歉。我以為你問的是折舊。 。

  • David Whiston - Sector Strategist

    David Whiston - Sector Strategist

  • I appreciate the clarification.

    我很感謝您的澄清。

  • Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

    Enrique N. Mayor-Mora - Executive VP & CFO

  • You got an extra answer.

    你得到了一個額外的答案。

  • David Whiston - Sector Strategist

    David Whiston - Sector Strategist

  • Are you guys being more aggressive on your offers to consumers who want to sell a vehicle to you with wholesale units up nearly 8%, I was just curious if you're looking to acquire more vehicles.

    對於想要以批發量上漲近 8% 的價格向您出售車輛的消費者,你們是否會更加積極地提供報價,我只是好奇你們是否想購買更多車輛。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Look, we want to acquire all the vehicles, but we're going to do it in a very thoughtful, profitable way. I mean you could -- we could buy a lot more cars, but it wouldn't make sense from a profitability standpoint. So I think the team has done a phenomenal job, especially given the steep depreciation that we've seen, how they've been able to stay on top of it because that's definitely a short-term headwind.

    聽著,我們想收購所有的車輛,但我們將以一種非常深思熟慮、有利可圖的方式來做這件事。我的意思是我們可以購買更多的汽車,但從獲利的角度來看這是沒有意義的。因此,我認為該團隊做得非常出色,特別是考慮到我們所看到的急劇貶值,他們如何能夠保持領先地位,因為這絕對是短期的逆風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this time, we have no additional questions standing by. I'd like to turn the call back over to Bill for closing remarks.

    目前,我們沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回給比爾,讓其結束語。

  • William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

    William D. Nash - President, CEO & Director

  • Great. Thank you, Jamie. Well, I want to thank all of you for joining the call today and for your questions and your continued support. As always, I want to thank our associates for everything they do to have to take care of each other and the customers and the communities. I want to wish all of them a happy holiday season as well as all of you all, and we will talk again next quarter. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝你,傑米。好吧,我要感謝大家今天加入電話會議、提出問題以及持續的支持。一如既往,我要感謝我們的員工為互相照顧、照顧客戶和社區所做的一切。我祝福他們以及你們所有人都有一個愉快的假期,我們將在下個季度再次討論。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.

    女士們先生們,今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連線。