Kennametal Inc. (KMT) 2026 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to Kennametal fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Pici, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    早安。我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 Kennametal 第四季暨 2026 會計年度財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意,本活動將被錄音。現在我想把會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Michael Pici。先生,請開始。

  • Michael Pici - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Michael Pici - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Kennametal's fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 results. This morning, we issued our earnings press release and posted our presentation slides on our website. We will be referring to that slide deck throughout today's call.

    謝謝,接線員。歡迎各位,也感謝各位加入我們,一同檢視 Kennametal 第四季暨 2026 會計年度的業績。今天早上,我們已發布盈餘新聞稿,並在公司網站上張貼簡報投影片。我們將在今天的電話會議中全程引用該投影片資料。

  • I'm Michael Pici, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today are Sanjay Chowbey, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Pat Watson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After Sanjay and Pat's prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. At this time, I'd like to direct your attention to our forward-looking disclosure statement.

    我是 Michael Pici,投資人關係副總裁。今天與我一同參與電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Sanjay Chowbey,以及財務長兼財務副總裁 Pat Watson。在 Sanjay 與 Pat 的準備發言之後,我們將開放提問。此刻,我想請各位注意我們的前瞻性聲明揭露。

  • Today's discussion contains comments that constitute forward-looking statements and as such, involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such statements. These risk factors and uncertainties are detailed in Kennametal's SEC filings.

    今天的討論包含構成前瞻性陳述的評論,因此涉及若干假設、風險與不確定性,可能導致公司實際結果、表現或成就與該等陳述所明示或暗示者存在重大差異。這些風險因素與不確定性已在 Kennametal 向 SEC 提交的文件中詳述。

  • In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. Reconciliations to GAAP financial measures that we believe are most directly comparable can be found on the back of the slide deck and on our Form 8-K on our website.

    此外,我們今天的電話會議也將討論非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們認為最具可比性的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表,可在投影片資料末頁以及我們網站上的 Form 8-K 中查閱。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 Sanjay。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Mike. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I will begin the call today with a brief review of the fiscal year, followed by an aerospace product spotlight and some end market commentary supporting our fiscal '27 outlook. Then Pat will cover the quarterly financial results as well as the fiscal '27 outlook. Finally, I'll make summary comments and then open the line for questions.

    謝謝你,Mike。早安,感謝各位加入我們。我將先簡要回顧本會計年度,接著聚焦航太產品亮點,並就支持我們 2027 會計年度展望的終端市場情況提出一些評論。然後 Pat 將說明本季財務結果以及 2027 會計年度展望。最後,我會做總結並開放提問。

  • Beginning on slide 3 for an overview of our strong fiscal year results. Throughout fiscal '26, we continue to win new business and expand our share of wallet with key customers across diverse end markets like Aerospace and Defense, Energy, Transportation and Earthworks. Our success reflects the strength of our core competencies, which includes material science and process technology, application engineering and a secure global supply chain.

    請看投影片第 3 頁,概覽我們強勁的年度業績。在 2026 會計年度期間,我們持續贏得新業務,並在航太與國防、能源、運輸與土方工程等多元終端市場中,擴大與關鍵客戶的錢包份額。我們的成功反映出核心能力的優勢,包括材料科學與製程技術、應用工程,以及安全可靠的全球供應鏈。

  • This combination of expertise, innovation and global operations is a strong competitive advantage for us. For the last several years, we have used a systematic approach to our growth initiatives, which includes identifying the most attractive opportunities and allocating the resources needed to capitalize on them. An important aspect of this approach is that it is repeatable and sustainable. I will cover an Aerospace and defense example of this in a moment.

    這種專業能力、創新與全球營運的結合,對我們而言是強大的競爭優勢。過去幾年,我們以系統化方法推動成長計畫,包括辨識最具吸引力的機會,並配置所需資源以把握這些機會。此方法的重要特點在於可重複且可持續。我稍後將以航太與國防的案例說明。

  • We broadened our growth platforms this year through wins tied to AI-powered data centers, defense programs, mining projects and next-generation vehicle powertrains. At the same time, we also advanced new digital machining solutions that enhance customer productivity. In addition to the growth we saw from our own strategic initiatives, we experienced improvements in several of our end markets.

    今年我們透過與 AI 驅動資料中心、國防計畫、採礦專案以及下一代車輛動力系統相關的勝案,擴大了成長平台。同時,我們也推進新的數位加工解決方案,以提升客戶生產力。除了自身策略性計畫帶來的成長外,我們也看到若干終端市場有所改善。

  • The key external market factors we track all have improved, including IPI, PMI, light vehicle production and aircraft build rates. At the same time, rig counts stabilized during the year. The final component of sales growth is price, driven by higher tungsten costs.

    我們追蹤的關鍵外部市場因素皆有所改善,包括工業生產指數(IPI)、採購經理人指數(PMI)、輕型車產量與飛機製造率。同時,鑽機數在年度期間趨於穩定。銷售成長的最後一個組成要素是價格,主要由更高的鎢成本所驅動。

  • Tungsten outside of China has now stabilized but remains at historically high levels. We implemented several pricing actions in response to this environment. As you have heard us say previously, we are committed to offsetting the impact that this additional cost is having on the business. Finally, we realized $27 million in restructuring savings this year and remain committed to $110 million of savings by the end of fiscal '27. Now let's move to our full year results.

    中國以外地區的鎢價格目前已趨於穩定,但仍處於歷史高檔水準。我們已因應此環境採取多項定價措施。如同各位先前聽我們提到的,我們致力於抵銷這項額外成本對業務造成的影響。最後,今年我們實現了 2,700 萬美元的重整節省,並仍致力於在 2027 會計年度結束前達成 1.10 億美元的節省目標。現在讓我們來看全年業績。

  • Full year organic sales increased 19% year-over-year, driven by additional price realization and modest volume. From an end market perspective, for fiscal '26, all end markets experienced growth on a constant currency basis. For the full year, adjusted EPS increased to $4.57 compared to $1.34 in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.9% compared to 15.2% in the prior year.

    全年有機銷售額年增 19%,主要由更高的價格實現與溫和的銷量所帶動。從終端市場角度來看,在 2026 會計年度,所有終端市場以固定匯率計算皆呈現成長。全年調整後每股盈餘(EPS)提升至 4.57 美元,前一年為 1.34 美元。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 26.9%,前一年為 15.2%。

  • As expected, free cash flow was adversely impacted by increased working capital requirements directed to tungsten prices. Cash flow from operating activities was negative $4 million and free operating cash flow was negative $79 million. And finally, we returned $71 million to shareholders, $61 million through dividends and $10 million through share repurchases. More details on our full year performance can be found on slide 18 in the appendix. Pat will provide a detailed overview on the fourth quarter results in his prepared remarks.

    如預期,自由現金流受到因鎢價格而增加的營運資金需求所不利影響。營運活動現金流為負 400 萬美元,自由營運現金流為負 7,900 萬美元。最後,我們向股東回饋 7,100 萬美元,其中 6,100 萬美元為股利,1,000 萬美元為庫藏股買回。關於全年表現的更多細節,請參閱附錄中的投影片第 18 頁。Pat 將在其準備發言中,對第四季業績提供更詳細的說明。

  • In summary, we are pleased with the way the team executed this year on growth, lean transformation and cost-out initiatives, while also navigating this unique and unprecedented business environment. Now before I provide an update on end markets, I want to call your attention to slide 4. This highlights our Metal Cutting solution to address machining challenges aerospace customers have with carbon fiber reinforced plastics or CFRP. This is one of the most exciting growth stories in our portfolio.

    總結而言,我們對團隊今年在成長、精實轉型與成本削減計畫上的執行成果感到滿意,同時也成功因應這個獨特且前所未有的商業環境。在我更新終端市場之前,我想請各位注意投影片第 4 頁。此頁重點介紹我們的金屬切削解決方案,用以解決航太客戶在加工碳纖維強化塑膠(CFRP)時所面臨的挑戰。這是我們產品組合中最令人振奮的成長故事之一。

  • CFRP is an extremely strong, rigid and lightweight composite material that is difficult to machine. Due to its high strength to weight ratio, it is widely used in aerospace and automotive manufacturing, where fuel efficiency is a key focus. We are competing in a roughly $500 million market for cutting tools used on carbon fiber composites in aerospace. This market is expected to grow 9% a year through 2028, one of the fastest-growing material groups we serve.

    CFRP 是一種極為堅固、剛性高且輕量的複合材料,但加工難度很高。由於其高強度重量比,它被廣泛應用於航太與汽車製造領域,而燃油效率是這些領域的關鍵重點。我們正在競爭一個約 5 億美元的市場,該市場為航太領域用於碳纖維複合材料的切削刀具。預期該市場在 2028 年前每年成長 9%,是我們所服務的材料類別中成長最快的之一。

  • Aerospace demand for lightweight composites remains strong. What makes this market especially attractive is the economics. Consumption for diamond coating cutting tools for CFRP is almost double that of cutting tools for aluminum. These can't be easily reconditioned. Once they are consumed, customers come back for a replacement. That provides us a durable recurring revenue base.

    航太對輕量化複合材料的需求仍然強勁。使這個市場特別具吸引力的是其經濟性。用於 CFRP 的金剛石塗層切削刀具,其耗用量幾乎是用於鋁材切削刀具的兩倍。這些刀具不易重新修磨翻新。一旦耗用完畢,客戶就會回來購買替換品。這為我們提供了穩健且可持續的經常性收入基礎。

  • How we win here is again tied to our core competencies as we are leveraging our engineering and material science expertise. We design innovative solutions using standard and custom tooling with proprietary geometry and material science. This delivered longer tool life and cleaner cuts. We pair that product advantage with deep channel relationships and a well-trained sales and application engineering team. This expands our reach and helps customers solve their manufacturing challenges. Let me give you an example.

    我們在此取勝的方式同樣與核心能力相關,因為我們正運用工程與材料科學專長。我們使用標準與客製化刀具,結合專有幾何設計與材料科學,設計創新解決方案。這帶來更長的刀具壽命與更乾淨的切削品質。我們將產品優勢與深厚的通路關係,以及訓練有素的銷售與應用工程團隊相結合。這擴大了我們的觸及範圍,並協助客戶解決其製造挑戰。我舉個例子。

  • A customer recently faced a supply disruption from a competitor. So our team quickly stepped in, delivered a superior product and guaranteed supply, and we won that business outright. This is only one example of growth opportunities driving performance in Aerospace.

    某位客戶近期因競爭對手而遭遇供應中斷。因此,我們的團隊迅速介入,提供更優異的產品並保證供應,最終直接拿下該筆業務。這只是航太領域成長機會推動業績表現的其中一個例子。

  • Since composites are also used in applications across the transportation and general engineering end markets, we are excited about the prospects of leveraging our expertise to serve this growing application. We will apply the same disciplined, repeatable process I discussed earlier to this growth opportunity. This process helps us identify the most attractive opportunities, move resources quickly and drive growth and share gains, while leveraging our global supply chain to deliver innovative solutions on time and to specification. Turning to Slide 5, I want to frame the end market demand environment supporting our full year fiscal '27 outlook.

    由於複合材料也被應用於運輸及一般工程等終端市場,我們對於運用自身專業能力來服務這一成長中的應用領域之前景感到振奮。我們將把我先前提到的同樣嚴謹、可複製的流程,運用到這項成長機會上。此流程可協助我們辨識最具吸引力的機會、快速調度資源並推動成長與市占提升,同時運用我們的全球供應鏈,按時並依規格交付創新解決方案。接著看第5頁投影片,我想先說明支撐我們2027財年全年展望的終端市場需求環境。

  • As a reminder, our full year outlook reflects forecast of specific market drivers and general market conditions. The top half of this slide reflects our sales outlook at the midpoint and includes price, volume and market factors. I will focus on the bottom half of the slide and the market conditions by end market.

    提醒一下,我們的全年展望反映了對特定市場驅動因素及整體市場狀況的預測。本頁上半部反映我們在中位數情境下的銷售展望,並包含價格、銷量與市場因素。我將聚焦於本頁下半部,亦即按終端市場劃分的市場狀況。

  • Aerospace and Defense remains a structural growth engine. On the aerospace side, commercial OEM build rates continue to recover as supply chains normalize and production restrictions ease. In defense, we are seeing a proposed increase in the US budget, coupled with NATO members planning to significantly raise spending. This provides a durable multiyear demand trajectory.

    航太與國防仍是結構性成長引擎。在航太方面,隨著供應鏈正常化與生產限制放寬,商用OEM的產量提升速度持續復甦。在國防方面,我們看到美國預算提案增加,同時北約成員國也計畫大幅提高支出。這為需求提供了穩健的多年期成長軌跡。

  • Aerospace and defense also continues as a strategic growth initiatives for us. You might remember at our last Investor Day, we talked about shifting resources from transportation to aerospace and defense in the Americas to grow our position in that market. That helped us drive share gains and new opportunities like the one I mentioned a few minutes ago.

    航太與國防對我們而言也仍是策略性成長倡議。各位或許記得,在上一次投資人日,我們談到在美洲地區將資源從運輸轉向航太與國防,以擴大我們在該市場的布局。這幫助我們推動市占提升,並帶來我幾分鐘前提到的那類新機會。

  • Coupled with key wins on various defense opportunities, Aerospace and Defense is now projected to be our third largest end market. General engineering is stable. US and European industrial production are both forecast up low single digits, and China has returned to modest expansion.

    結合在多項國防機會上的關鍵勝出,航太與國防目前預計將成為我們第三大終端市場。一般工程維持穩定。美國與歐洲的工業生產預測皆為低個位數成長,而中國已回到溫和擴張。

  • Energy growth is anticipated to be strong. The US land-based rig count has turned decisively. Prior estimates were a mid-single-digit decline. Projections now forecast rig counts up high single digits. Customer sentiment has moved from cautious to improving and combined with increased rig counts supports a meaningful upward revision to this end market assumption.

    能源預期將強勁成長。美國陸上鑽機數已出現明顯轉折。先前估計為中個位數下滑。目前預測則為高個位數成長。客戶情緒已由謹慎轉為改善,並在鑽機數增加的帶動下,支持我們對此終端市場假設作出顯著上修。

  • The trend in the market for AI data center power generation continues to experience rapid expansion, which provides further support for growth in this end market. Now there are some offsets we are monitoring. Transportation continues to be soft. Global light vehicle production moved from up about 1 point in fiscal '26 to down about 1 point in fiscal '27, mainly in the Americas and Europe.

    AI資料中心發電市場的趨勢仍在快速擴張,進一步支撐此終端市場的成長。當然,我們也在關注一些抵銷因素。運輸仍然疲弱。全球輕型車產量從2026財年約成長1個百分點,轉為2027財年約下滑1個百分點,主要發生在美洲與歐洲。

  • In Earthworks, mining share gains are partially offset by soft coal markets in the US and China, though customers, they are increasingly consolidating towards reliable suppliers like us. And in road construction, we are assuming that normal seasonality and competitive pressures continue. Netting it out, our fiscal '27 sales assumptions in constant currency and including price reflect broad-based growth across most end markets. We are confident that this market recovery is broad enough and the pricing environment firm enough to support our outlook and growth trajectory into fiscal '27.

    在土方工程方面,採礦領域的市占提升部分被美國與中國疲弱的煤炭市場所抵銷;不過客戶正日益整合並轉向像我們這樣可靠的供應商。在道路建設方面,我們假設正常季節性與競爭壓力將持續。綜合而言,我們2027財年的銷售假設(以固定匯率並包含價格因素)反映多數終端市場的廣泛成長。我們有信心,這波市場復甦的廣度足夠、定價環境也足夠穩健,可支撐我們對2027財年的展望與成長軌跡。

  • Now let me turn the call over to Pat, who will review the fourth quarter financial performance.

    接下來我把電話交給Pat,由他回顧第四季的財務表現。

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Thank you, Sanjay, and good morning, everyone. I will begin on slide 6 with a review of our fourth quarter operating results. Q4 was the fourth consecutive quarter of organic sales growth with an organic sales increase of 42%. Our results for the quarter reflect strong price realization from our decisive pricing actions driven by the unprecedented rise in tungsten costs and continued volume improvements in Metal Cutting.

    謝謝你,Sanjay,各位早安。我將從第6頁投影片開始,回顧我們第四季的營運成果。第四季是連續第四個季度的有機銷售成長,有機銷售增加42%。本季結果反映出:在鎢成本前所未見的上升所驅動下,我們果斷採取定價行動並實現強勁的價格落地,同時金屬切削的銷量也持續改善。

  • At the segment level, sales increased organically 22% in Metal Cutting and 74% in Infrastructure. On a constant currency basis, Americas sales increased 60%, Asia Pacific increased 28% and EMEA increased 24%.

    以事業部層級來看,金屬切削有機銷售成長22%,基礎建設有機銷售成長74%。以固定匯率計,美洲銷售成長60%,亞太成長28%,EMEA成長24%。

  • We experienced growth in all our end markets on a constant currency basis. Energy increased 101% Earthworks 76%; Aerospace and Defense, 43%; General Engineering, 28%; and Transportation, 7%. I will provide more color when I review the segment results in a moment.

    以固定匯率計,我們所有終端市場皆實現成長。能源成長101%;土方工程成長76%;航太與國防成長43%;一般工程成長28%;運輸成長7%。稍後我在回顧事業部表現時,會提供更多細節。

  • We achieved record adjusted EBITDA and operating margins of 46.8% and 41.5%, respectively, versus 14.8% and 7.4% in the prior year quarter. The margin increase was driven by favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to costs of $252 million, non-raw material-related pricing and tariff surcharges in Metal Cutting, higher sales and production volumes and incremental year-over-year restructuring savings of approximately $5 million. These were partially offset by higher compensation costs tariffs and general inflation. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.96 in the quarter, a record high for the company versus $0.34 in the prior year period. The main drivers of our EPS performance are highlighted on the bridge on slide 7.

    我們達成創紀錄的調整後EBITDA與營業利益率,分別為46.8%與41.5%,相較去年同期的14.8%與7.4%。毛利率提升主要來自:原物料定價相對成本的有利時點因素,影響金額為2.52億美元;金屬切削的非原物料相關定價與關稅附加費;更高的銷售與生產量;以及年增約500萬美元的重整節省。上述部分被更高的薪酬成本、關稅與整體通膨所抵銷。本季調整後每股盈餘為2.96美元,創公司新高,去年同期為0.34美元。我們EPS表現的主要驅動因素,已在第7頁投影片的橋接圖中標示。

  • The year-over-year effect of operations this quarter was $2.55. This reflects approximately $2.43 of favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to costs, non-raw material-related pricing and tariff surcharges in Metal Cutting, higher sales and production volume and incremental restructuring benefits of $0.05 per share. These were partially offset by higher compensation costs, tariffs and general inflation. A lower effective tax rate contributed a $0.09 benefit in the quarter, driven by geographic mix.

    本季營運對每股盈餘的年對年影響為2.55美元。這反映:原物料定價相對成本的有利時點因素約2.43美元,加上金屬切削的非原物料相關定價與關稅附加費、更高的銷售與生產量,以及每股0.05美元的重整效益增量。上述部分被更高的薪酬成本、關稅與整體通膨所抵銷。較低的有效稅率在本季帶來每股0.09美元的正面貢獻,主要由地理組合所驅動。

  • The headwind of $0.07 in other is mainly driven by higher share count and slightly higher interest expense. You can also see $0.04 of transaction gains related to preferential Bolivia exchange rates. Currency and pension effects offset each other, and there is a $0.01 gain from the Inflation Reduction Act tax credit. Slides 8 and 9 detail the performance of our segments this quarter.

    「其他」項目中的0.07美元逆風,主要來自股數增加以及利息費用略為上升。你也可以看到與玻利維亞優惠匯率相關的0.04美元交易收益。匯率與退休金影響彼此抵銷,此外還有來自《通膨削減法案》稅額抵免的0.01美元收益。第8與第9頁投影片詳述我們本季各事業部的表現。

  • Metal Cutting sales grew 22% organically and 24% on a reported basis. We outperformed the public peers again this quarter. That marks the fourth quarter in a row and extends a favorable trend that started 4 years ago. Regionally, on a constant currency basis, the Americas increased 29%, Asia Pacific increased 20% and EMEA increased 16%.

    金屬切削銷售有機成長22%,按報告基礎成長24%。本季我們再次優於同業上市公司。這已是連續第四季,並延續了4年前開始的有利趨勢。以固定匯率計,區域表現方面:美洲成長29%,亞太成長20%,EMEA成長16%。

  • Looking at sales by end market on a constant currency basis, Energy increased 36% this quarter. The growth was driven by price and continued AI data center project wins. Aerospace and Defense grew 35% year-over-year as we capitalize on higher build rates and accelerate share of wallet gains in tier suppliers in the Americas and EMEA.

    以固定匯率按終端市場來看,本季能源成長36%。成長主要由價格因素與持續贏得AI資料中心專案所帶動。航太與國防年增35%,我們受惠於更高的產量提升速度,並在美洲與EMEA的Tier供應商加速提升錢包份額。

  • General Engineering grew 25% year-over-year, driven by higher price realization and share gains in the indirect channel. For an example, in the Americas, we leveraged our strategic partnership with a large national distributor to expand our reach.

    一般工程年增25%,主要由更高的價格落地與在間接通路的市占提升所驅動。例如在美洲,我們運用與一家大型全國性經銷商的策略夥伴關係來擴大觸及範圍。

  • And lastly, Transportation increased 7% year-over-year as higher price was partially offset by prior year project wins in Asia Pacific, including EV-related program activity. Metal Cutting adjusted operating margin was 27.3% compared to 7.9% in the prior year, driven by favorable timing of raw material-related pricing compared to cost of $54 million with non-raw material pricing and tariff surcharges, higher sales and production volume and restructuring savings of $4 million, partially offset by higher compensation costs and general inflation. Turning to slide 9 for Infrastructure.

    最後,運輸年增7%,較高的價格部分被亞太地區去年專案勝出所帶來的基期因素所抵銷,其中包含與電動車相關的專案活動。金屬切削調整後營業利益率為27.3%,去年同期為7.9%;主要受惠於原物料相關定價相對成本的有利時點因素(影響金額5,400萬美元),以及非原物料定價與關稅附加費、更高的銷售與生產量、以及400萬美元的重整節省;部分被更高的薪酬成本與整體通膨所抵銷。接著看第9頁投影片的基礎建設事業部。

  • Organic sales grew by 74% year-over-year with favorable foreign exchange of 1% and a favorable business day effect of 1%, partially offset by a divestiture effect of 3%. Regionally, on a constant currency basis, sales in the Americas increased 103%, EMEA grew 46% and Asia Pacific grew 40%.

    有機銷售額年增 74%,其中有利的外匯影響為 1%,有利的營業日效應為 1%,但部分被 3% 的資產剝離影響所抵銷。按地區來看,以固定匯率計, 美洲地區銷售額成長 103%,EMEA 成長 46%,亞太地區成長 40%。

  • Looking at sales by end market on a constant currency basis, Energy grew 135%, mainly driven by price in the Americas, partially offset by volume as we prioritized other end markets. Earthworks grew 76%, driven by price and higher volume in surface mining and construction from share gains due to availability of materials. Aerospace and Defense grew 63%, driven by price and continued execution of our strategic initiatives in the Americas and EMEA. And lastly, General Engineering grew 37% from price and volume growth in EMEA, partially offset by volume prioritization in the Americas.

    以固定匯率計按終端市場觀察銷售表現,能源市場成長 135%,主要由美洲地區的價格帶動,但因我們優先配置其他終端市場而使銷量部分抵銷。土方工程市場成長 76%,由價格上漲以及露天採礦與建築領域因材料供應可得性帶來的市占提升而推動的更高銷量所帶動。航太與國防市場成長 63%,由價格上漲以及我們在美洲與 EMEA 持續推進策略性計畫的執行所帶動。最後,一般工程市場成長 37%,來自 EMEA 的價格與銷量成長,但部分被美洲地區的銷量優先配置所抵銷。

  • Adjusted operating margin increased to 58.4% compared to 6.8%, primarily due to favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to cost of $198 million, partially offset by lower sales and production volume, higher compensation costs and general inflation. Now turning to slide 10 to review our free operating cash flow and balance sheet.

    調整後營業利益率提升至 58.4%,相較於 6.8%,主要因原物料定價時點相對成本有利,帶來 1.98 億美元的效益,但部分被較低的銷售與生產量、更高的薪酬成本及整體通膨所抵銷。接著請看投影片 10,回顧我們的自由營運現金流與資產負債表。

  • Free operating cash flow as a percent of adjusted net income was modestly better than we anticipated. Our full year free operating cash flow was negative $79 million compared to positive $121 million reported in the prior year. The change in free operating cash flow was primarily the result of increased working capital required by higher tungsten prices.

    自由營運現金流占調整後淨利的比例略優於我們的預期。我們全年自由營運現金流為負 7,900 萬美元,相較前一年度報告為正 1.21 億美元。自由營運現金流的變動主要是因鎢價上漲導致所需營運資金增加。

  • Net capital expenditures were $75 million compared to $87 million in the prior year. In total, we returned $71 million to shareholders, $61 million through dividends and $10 million from share repurchases. Our share repurchase program remained positive this quarter as a result of the higher tungsten pricing and corresponding working capital needs. During the quarter, we took actions to enhance liquidity, extend debt maturities to position the company to capture near-term growth opportunities. These actions provide additional liquidity to support near-term tungsten-related working capital needs and preserve financial flexibility to respond to future market developments, while maintaining balance sheet discipline.

    淨資本支出為 7,500 萬美元,較前一年度的 8,700 萬美元下降。合計而言,我們向股東回饋 7,100 萬美元,其中 6,100 萬美元為股利,1,000 萬美元來自庫藏股回購。由於鎢價走高及相應的營運資金需求,本季我們的股票回購計畫仍維持正向。本季期間,我們採取行動以提升流動性並延長債務到期結構,使公司能把握近期成長機會。這些行動在維持資產負債表紀律的同時,提供額外流動性以支應近期與鎢相關的營運資金需求,並保留財務彈性以因應未來市場變化。

  • At quarter end, we had combined cash and revolver availability of approximately $926 million, which includes the additional $200 million available by exercising the accordion feature on our revolver, and we are well within our financial covenants. Additionally, we had full availability of our new $500 million term loan. As is customary, this facility is a use it or lose it proposition. So we intend to fully draw the new term loan during the September quarter and pay down any revolver borrowings. Going forward, the term loan can be paid down within the 3-year term, which gives us the flexibility to scale down the balance sheet if working capital needs decline.

    截至季末,我們的現金與循環信貸可用額合計約 9.26 億美元,其中包含透過行使循環信貸的增額(accordion)條款可額外取得的 2 億美元,且我們的財務契約仍有充足餘裕。此外,我們新的 5 億美元定期貸款亦可全額動用。依慣例,該融資安排屬於「不用即失效」的性質。因此,我們計畫在 9 月季度將新的定期貸款全數提用,並償還任何循環信貸借款。展望未來,該定期貸款可在 3 年期限內提前償還,若營運資金需求下降,這將使我們具備縮減資產負債表的彈性。

  • With the refinancing of the 2028 notes, the remaining $91 million of outstanding notes were redeemed on July 1, we have meaningfully extended our debt maturity profile. Our nearest debt maturity is July 2029, and our public notes maturities are now extended to 2031 and 2036, respectively. The full balance sheet can be found on slide 22 in the appendix. Turning to slide 11 regarding our full year outlook.

    隨著 2028 年到期票據完成再融資,剩餘 9,100 萬美元未償票據已於 7 月 1 日贖回,我們已顯著延長債務到期結構。我們最近一期的債務到期日為 2029 年 7 月,而我們的公開發行票據到期日現已分別延長至 2031 年與 2036 年。完整資產負債表可見附錄投影片 22。接著請看投影片 11,關於我們的全年展望。

  • We are providing a range for both the full year and the first quarter, beginning with the full year. We expect FY27 sales to be between $3.33 billion and $3.45 billion, with volume ranging from 1% to 4%, price and tariff surcharges ranging from approximately 40% to 43% and a neutral effect from foreign exchange. We have been successful and remain committed to achieving price.

    我們同時提供全年與第一季的區間指引,先從全年開始。我們預期 FY27 銷售額介於 33.3 億至 34.5 億美元之間,銷量成長介於 1% 至 4%,價格與關稅附加費約介於 40% 至 43%,外匯影響為中性。我們在實現價格方面已取得成效,並將持續致力於達成價格。

  • As Sanjay noted earlier in his remarks, most end market indicators maintained positive momentum into FY27. At the midpoint at constant currency and including price, we expect all end markets to increase high double digits year-over-year. Our annual outlook also assumes that tungsten will remain stable at the current level.

    如 Sanjay 先前在談話中所提,多數終端市場指標在 FY27 仍維持正向動能。以固定匯率並包含價格因素,在指引中點情境下,我們預期所有終端市場年增皆為高雙位數。我們的年度展望亦假設鎢價將在目前水準維持穩定。

  • Additionally, we are assuming that there is no material effect on customer activity as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Approximately $10 million of rollover savings from our previously announced restructuring initiative has been included. We expect interest expense of approximately $50 million due to the additional borrowings to fund working capital requirements and an effective tax rate of approximately 25%. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $4.15 to $5.15.

    此外,我們假設中東衝突不會對客戶活動造成重大影響。我們已納入先前宣布的重整計畫所帶來約 1,000 萬美元的延續性節省。由於為支應營運資金需求而增加借款,我們預期利息費用約 5,000 萬美元,且有效稅率約 25%。我們預期調整後 EPS 介於 4.15 至 5.15 美元。

  • On the cash side, the full year outlook for working capital expenditures is $85 million and the outlook for primary working capital is 45% by fiscal year-end. Taken together, we expect free operating cash flow to be approximately 20% of adjusted net income, reflecting the working capital pressure from the rising cost of tungsten. The bridge on slide 12 highlights the main drivers impacting EPS at the midpoint of our outlook.

    在現金方面,全年營運資金支出展望為 8,500 萬美元,且主要營運資金在會計年度末的目標為 45%。綜合而言,我們預期自由營運現金流約為調整後淨利的 20%,反映鎢成本上升帶來的營運資金壓力。投影片 12 的橋接表突顯在我們展望中點情境下影響 EPS 的主要驅動因素。

  • The bridge walks you from our FY26 adjusted EPS of $4.57 to the midpoint of our FY27 outlook of $4.65, pretty flat on the surface. Underneath that roughly flat headline number, the core earnings engine of the business continues to strengthen. There's a lot going on underneath, so let me unpack it.

    該橋接表將 FY26 調整後 EPS 的 4.57 美元,連結到 FY27 展望中點的 4.65 美元,表面上看起來幾乎持平。在這個大致持平的表面數字之下,公司的核心獲利引擎仍在持續強化。底層有很多變化,讓我逐一拆解說明。

  • Starting with the tailwinds. First, operations adds about $0.53. Favorability of raw material pricing compared to costs is positive $0.39 for the full year with favorability occurring in the first half of the year, most significantly in the first quarter. Higher sales and production volume as end markets continue to improve and we execute on the share gain initiatives, together with lower incentive compensation of approximately $0.18 and about $0.10 of restructuring savings, partially offset by higher raw material costs as tungsten remains at elevated levels and higher wages and general inflation. We also expect a $0.17 benefit from the IRA advanced manufacturing credit.

    先從順風因素開始。第一,營運面貢獻約 0.53 美元。原物料定價相對成本的有利因素,全年為正 0.39 美元,且有利因素主要發生在上半年,最顯著在第一季。隨著終端市場持續改善、我們推動市占提升計畫帶動更高的銷售與生產量,再加上約 0.18 美元的較低激勵性薪酬與約 0.10 美元的重整節省,但部分被鎢價維持高檔所致的較高原物料成本,以及較高薪資與整體通膨所抵銷。我們亦預期可受惠於 IRA 先進製造稅額抵減約 0.17 美元。

  • Now to the headwinds. Year-over-year, we will see a 23% Bolivia FX headwind as the Bolivian government has ended the preferential program. Higher interest expense is a $0.25 drag, reflecting our higher debt levels following the recent financing actions and other items of about $0.08, primarily a higher share count of $0.07. Taxes and pension are $0.04 and $0.02, respectively. Netted all together, and we arrive at an FY27 midpoint of $4.65.

    接著談逆風因素。年對年而言,我們將面臨玻利維亞外匯 23% 的逆風,因玻利維亞政府已終止優惠方案。較高的利息費用將拖累 0.25 美元,反映近期融資行動後我們較高的負債水準;其他項目約 0.08 美元,主要為較高的流通股數影響 0.07 美元。稅負與退休金分別為 0.04 美元與 0.02 美元。全部加總後,我們得到 FY27 中點為 4.65 美元。

  • The key takeaway is that our operational momentum, price realization, volume and cost discipline is essentially offsetting a set of largely non-operational headwinds related to FX, interest and a higher tax rate. The FY27 midpoint reflects a $0.39 EPS price raw tungsten impact as compared to $3.11 in the prior year. Our first quarter outlook can be found on slide 13.

    關鍵重點是:我們的營運動能、價格落實、銷量與成本紀律,基本上抵銷了主要屬於非營運面的逆風,包括外匯、利息與較高的稅率。FY27 中點反映原鎢價格對 EPS 的影響為 0.39 美元,相較前一年度為 3.11 美元。我們的第一季展望可見投影片 13。

  • We expect Q1 sales to be between $745 million and $775 million, with volume ranging from 1% to 4%, price and tariff surcharges in the range of 50% to 53% and neutral foreign exchange. Let me share some details on the sales assumptions affecting the Q1 outlook.

    我們預期 Q1 銷售額介於 7.45 億至 7.75 億美元之間,銷量介於 1% 至 4%,價格與關稅附加費介於 50% 至 53%,外匯影響為中性。我來分享一些影響 Q1 展望的銷售假設細節。

  • Once again, similar to the full year impact, the combination of improving end market conditions, focus on share gain initiatives and price, we anticipate each end market to be up high double digits on a constant currency basis. Foreign exchange is neutral on both the sales and operating income basis. Interest expense is assumed to be approximately $11 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 25%. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $2.50 to $2.80, which includes approximately $2.25 of favorable timing of raw material pricing compared to costs. Finally, as we discussed on our last call, I'll provide you some assumptions to help you model a FY28 and beyond view of the business if tungsten were to remain at this elevated level.

    再次強調,類似於全年影響,在終端市場狀況改善、聚焦於市占提升措施以及價格的共同作用下,我們預期各終端市場在固定匯率基礎上都將呈現高雙位數成長。外匯對銷售與營業利益兩個層面皆為中性。利息費用假設約為1,100萬美元,有效稅率約為25%。我們預期調整後EPS介於2.50至2.80美元之間,其中包含約2.25美元,係原物料價格相對於成本的有利時點因素。最後,如同我們在上次電話會議中討論的,我將提供一些假設,協助你們在鎢價若維持在目前較高水準的情況下,建立FY28及之後的業務模型。

  • First, some context on the FY27 quarterly cadence. We have provided the impact for Q1 and the full year effect of tungsten on the business. The FY27 price raw benefit will be materially behind us by the beginning of the third quarter as we expect tungsten pricing and costing will be on the same level in the second half. The working capital build will follow the same pattern, and we expect free operating cash flow to turn positive in the second half. Assuming tungsten remains stable at the current level, we expect Q4 EBITDA margins in the mid-teens, which represents a clean quarter to use as a jump-off point to model FY28 and beyond.

    首先,提供一些關於FY27季度節奏的背景。我們已提供第一季以及鎢對全年業務影響的說明。由於我們預期下半年鎢的定價與成本將處於相同水準,FY27的價格/原料利益到第三季初將大致已經過去。營運資金的增加也將遵循相同模式,我們預期自由營運現金流將在下半年轉為正值。假設鎢價在目前水準保持穩定,我們預期第四季EBITDA利潤率在十幾%的中段,這將是一個可作為建模FY28及之後的乾淨季度起點。

  • In the current high price tungsten environment, we expect volume leverage to be in the mid-30s. This volume leverage estimate reflects the substantially higher raw material costs in the business as well as a sales mix that is more heavily weighted toward the Infrastructure business. We remain committed to executing share gain initiatives to drive above-market growth, continuous improvement actions to enhance our margins and evaluating opportunities to optimize our portfolio.

    在目前鎢價高企的環境下,我們預期量的槓桿效應約在30%中段。此量的槓桿效應估計反映了公司顯著較高的原物料成本,以及銷售組合更偏向基礎建設業務。我們仍致力於執行市占提升措施,以推動高於市場的成長,推動持續改善行動以提升利潤率,並評估優化投資組合的機會。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back over to Sanjay.

    接下來,我把時間交還給Sanjay。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Pat. Turning to slide 14. Let me take a moment to summarize.

    謝謝你,Pat。接著看第14頁投影片。我先花點時間做個總結。

  • We delivered a solid fiscal '26, driven by price and modest improvements in our end markets, project wins on the commercial side and cost improvement actions. We continue to make steady progress on our strategic growth initiatives, lean transformation and structural cost improvement, while also exploring ways to strengthen our portfolio over time. We are well positioned to continue to deliver on our commitments in fiscal '27 and remain confident in our plan for long-term value creation for our shareholders.

    我們交出穩健的2026財年表現,主要由價格帶動,並受惠於終端市場的溫和改善、商用端的專案得標,以及成本改善行動。我們持續在策略性成長計畫、精實轉型與結構性成本改善方面穩步推進,同時也在探索隨時間強化投資組合的方法。我們已做好充分準備,在2027財年持續兌現承諾,並對為股東創造長期價值的計畫保持信心。

  • And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

    接下來,接線員,請開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

    (接線員指示) Angel Castillo,摩根士丹利。

  • Angel Castillo - Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Analyst

  • Congrats on a strong quarter. I would just love to go back to the normalized and the bridge that you provided. I guess you gave a lot of good color on the slides, but can you just help me reconcile a couple of things?

    恭喜本季表現強勁。我想回到你們提供的常態化以及你們的橋接分析。我想你們在投影片上提供了很多有用的說明,但能否幫我釐清幾件事?

  • If I just take the $0.39 EPS from raw material timing for fiscal year '27 and then also layering in the $3.11 that I think you had in the fiscal year '26 guide, it implies an underlying kind of normalized of $1.15, if I just kind of leave everything else unchanged. So just it seems like there's a number of puts and takes, but as I kind of look at the normalized earnings, I used to think about it as closer to $1.60. So has anything changed in terms of what you view as kind of the underlying kind of normalized run rate of the earnings bridge for this -- for the business? And as you think about that exit rate of fiscal year '27, just help us kind of level set what am I missing or what has changed.

    如果我把2027財年因原物料時點帶來的0.39美元EPS,再加上我記得你們在2026財年指引中提到的3.11美元一起疊加,若其他因素都不變,推算出來的底層常態化大概是1.15美元。所以看起來有不少正負因素,但就我對常態化獲利的理解,過去我會認為更接近1.60美元。那麼在你們看來,這家公司底層常態化的獲利橋接/運行水準是否有任何改變?另外,談到2027財年的退出(run-rate)水準,能否幫我們校準一下:我漏掉了什麼,或是有哪些地方改變了?

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • No, I think, Angel, there's two things to consider, right? And let's go back to a simple view of, let's say, FY26, right? And so when we talked a quarter ago, we talked about a midpoint of $3.88 and price raw effect in the year of about $2.45 and about $0.20 tailwind going into '27 from a comp perspective, and that kind of gets you a clean FY26 of $1.63, right?

    不,我想,Angel,有兩件事需要考量,對吧?我們回到一個簡單的角度來看,比如說FY26,對吧?所以當我們在一季前討論時,我們談到中位數是3.88美元,而當年價格/原料效應約為2.45美元,並且從比較基期角度看,進入'27年約有0.20美元的順風,這樣就得到一個乾淨的FY26為1.63美元,對吧?

  • I would say if you think about those numbers in the context now of what actually happened in the fourth quarter, EPS came in a bit higher, $4.57, really driven by a little bit of pricing, a little bit of raw material. That's why that price raw number went from $2.45 to $3.11, right? And then that comp number came in a little bit tighter. And so that's an $0.18 tailwind going into FY27, so $1.64. So $1.63 in terms of what we thought that number was 90 days ago, $1.64 kind of in the world we're living in now.

    我會說,如果你把這些數字放到現在、也就是第四季實際發生的情況來看,EPS略高一些,為4.57美元,主要是由一點點定價以及一點點原物料所驅動。這就是為什麼那個價格/原料數字從2.45美元變成3.11美元,對吧?然後那個比較基期的數字也稍微收斂了一些。因此,進入FY27的順風是0.18美元,所以是1.64美元。也就是說,90天前我們認為是1.63美元,而在我們現在所處的情境下大概是1.64美元。

  • I think as well, as you think about what's happening in the context of FY27, yes, you have $0.39 for the full year, right? But I think you got to figure into that that the first half of that -- of the year is going to be positive, right? And as we talked about in the prepared remarks, in the third -- beginning of the third quarter, that price raw tailwind is going to be substantially behind us at that point in time. And so the benefit that we saw in FY26, the $0.39 in Q3, the $2.43 in Q4 goes away, okay? And so you just have these fundamental two halves, where you're going to have strong price raw in the first half. And then on a year-over-year basis, it's going to be a headwind for us.

    我想同樣地,當你思考FY27的情境時,是的,全年是0.39美元,對吧?但我認為你必須把上半年會是正向這件事納入考量,對吧?而且如同我們在事先準備的講稿中提到的,到第三季初,那個價格/原料的順風在那個時間點將大幅消退。因此,我們在FY26看到的利益——第三季的0.39美元、第四季的2.43美元——會消失,好嗎?所以你會看到兩個本質上不同的半年:上半年價格/原料很強。然後以年對年來看,將會變成對我們不利的逆風。

  • Angel Castillo - Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Analyst

  • So just maybe kind of putting all that together, the dots together, you had the $1.63 was before. What would you kind of consider now your normalized...

    所以也許把這些點串起來,你們之前是1.63美元。那你們現在會把常態化視為多少……

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • In terms of last year for FY26, $1.64.

    就去年FY26而言,是1.64美元。

  • Angel Castillo - Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Analyst

  • No, for fiscal year '27. I -- kind of all that stuff.

    不,我是指2027財年。我——把那些因素都算進去。

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • From a fiscal year '27 perspective, then you just -- you simply need to take back out the full amount of tungsten, right, from a FY26 perspective. $2.43 plus the $0.39.

    從2027財年的角度來看,你只需要把鎢的全部影響加回去(剔除)即可,對吧?以FY26的角度來看,就是2.43美元加上0.39美元。

  • Angel Castillo - Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Analyst

  • And then just maybe as a second question here, just in terms of the organic growth, could you just help us understand for the fiscal or 4Q, was volume for the total company up? Or was there a little bit of a drag when you kind of put all the pieces together? And then just curious, you talked about acceleration or good kind of improvements in some of the end markets here. Just curious how your kind of order trends right now are shaping up versus that 1% to 4% volume growth outlook?

    然後第二個問題,關於有機成長,你能否幫我們理解一下:就第四季或2027財年第四季而言,整體公司在量(volume)方面是成長的嗎?或者把所有因素加總後其實有些拖累?另外也好奇,你提到某些終端市場有加速或不錯的改善。想請問你們目前的訂單趨勢相較於1%到4%的量成長展望,現在看起來如何?

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Yes, certainly. So as we think about across the business, I'd say the business in total, low single digits from a volume perspective, a little bit different in terms of what's going on between the 2 businesses. Metal Cutting, a bit higher, mid-single-digit volume performance in Q4. Infrastructure, as we talked about, was volumetrically more flat. And there's -- inside of Infrastructure there, we did make some choices around portfolio in terms of customers we serve and how we're utilizing our material to drive ultimately the best return on the tungsten we have.

    是的,當然可以。所以當我們看整體業務時,我會說公司總體在量的角度是低個位數成長;兩個事業之間的情況略有不同。金屬切削(Metal Cutting)較高,第四季量的表現為中個位數成長。基礎建設(Infrastructure)如我們所談,量的表現較為持平。而在基礎建設內部,我們確實在投資組合上做了一些取捨,包括我們服務哪些客戶,以及我們如何運用材料,以最終在我們所擁有的鎢上取得最佳回報。

  • Sanjay, do you want to add anything to that from a market perspective?

    Sanjay,從市場角度你還想補充什麼嗎?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'm just going to add to your second part of the question. Of course, as you know, that we have had 3 years of slow burn industrial production being soft. So '26 was the first year, where we saw mid-single digit, low single-digit type of numbers throughout the year. And then now as we are looking at it, we do expect the low single digit at the midpoint, we have given you 2.5% volume for fiscal '27. So that is definitely a positive news because that's going to build upon the base that we have in fiscal '26.

    我只是想補充你問題的第二部分。當然,如你所知,我們已經歷了3年工業生產緩慢復甦、表現偏弱。因此,'26 是第一個年度,我們在全年看到中個位數、低個位數這類的數字。而現在我們在檢視時,確實預期中位數會是低個位數;我們已給你財年 '27 的銷量為 2.5%。所以這絕對是正面消息,因為這將建立在我們財年 '26 的基礎之上。

  • And I will give you more color here at the -- by segment level. Aerospace and Defense will be the strongest of that. The next will be energy. And following that will be general engineering, where we continue to see improvement in IPI across the board. And then you come into Earthworks, which is flattish and transportation being the one that is negative slightly.

    我也會在此提供更多細節——以事業部門層級來看。航太與國防將是其中最強的。接下來是能源。再來是一般工程,我們持續看到整體工業生產指數(IPI)全面改善。然後是土方工程,表現大致持平;運輸則是略為負向的那一塊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Steve Barger,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • In Infrastructure, you took share in Earthworks due to availability of materials. You just talked about that. But you also -- when you're prioritizing volume in energy and general engineering, does that mean on the whole, you were short material and lost potential sales due to the prioritization?

    在基礎建設方面,你們因為材料供應可得性而在土方工程拿到市占。你剛剛也談到這點。但你們在能源和一般工程上優先配置銷量時,是否代表整體而言,你們其實材料不足,因為優先順序而流失了潛在銷售?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, Steve. We are not short. What we're saying is that if as we see the growth in overall volume, including in Aerospace and Defense and the areas, where we do consume a lot more tungsten, we did prioritize what will drive the best return for our shareholders and how we get the best return on tungsten that we have. There was no shortage, but we were definitely allocating what we have. While there was no shortage, let's just say that even if we mentioned even supply, which we did secure, we were allocating based on where we can get the best return.

    不,Steve。我們並不缺料。我們的意思是,當我們看到整體銷量成長(包含航太與國防等領域,而這些領域會消耗更多鎢)時,我們確實會優先配置在能為股東帶來最佳報酬、以及讓我們手上鎢資源取得最佳回報的地方。沒有短缺,但我們確實在分配我們擁有的資源。雖然沒有短缺,但就算我們提到供應(我們也已確保),我們仍會依照哪裡能取得最佳回報來進行配置。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Got it. But I mean, so you have enough material for everybody, but you didn't sell to everybody because you want to drive those returns?

    了解。但我的意思是,你們有足夠材料供應所有人,但你們沒有賣給所有人,因為你們想推動那些報酬?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I think as you might have heard from even others that we could actually take more business if we can go get a lot more tungsten material. But there's no -- that doesn't mean that we have shortage. We are managing our overall supply chain and processing capacity because remember, it's not just about the ore. In our business, processing capacity is also one of the competitive advantage, which we do have. So that's where we have to manage how we allocate that capacity also.

    是的。我想你可能也聽其他人提過,如果我們能取得更多鎢原料,我們其實可以承接更多業務。但這不代表我們有短缺。我們是在管理整體供應鏈與加工產能,因為請記得,這不只是礦石的問題。在我們的業務中,加工產能也是競爭優勢之一,而我們確實具備。所以我們也必須管理如何配置那個產能。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Okay. Well, when I look at the 1% to 4% volume guidance for FY27 in the context of the cycle inflection, how much of that is what the market is giving you? And how much is share gain would you estimate?

    好的。那我看財年27的銷量指引為 1% 到 4%,放在景氣循環轉折的背景下,其中有多少是市場給你的?又有多少你會估計是市占提升?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We are not breaking it down specifically, but I can tell you that it will be coming from both. As we have said before that above-market growth, 100 basis points to 200 basis points is our target. But whatever market does, we want to definitely do 100 basis points to 200 basis points better than market. So that gives you a rough idea. That's where we will be in terms of breakdown between market versus the strategic growth or so-called our own initiatives.

    我們不會特別把它拆得那麼細,但我可以告訴你,兩者都會有貢獻。如同我們之前說過的,超越市場的成長(above-market growth)100 到 200 個基點是我們的目標。但不論市場表現如何,我們都希望比市場好 100 到 200 個基點。所以這能讓你有個大概概念。這就是我們在市場因素與策略性成長(也就是我們自身的推動措施)之間的拆分大致會落在的範圍。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • So just to clarify, I mean, if the market is up 1% or 2% and your guidance is 1% to 4%, your outgrowth should account for basically all of that.

    所以我只是想確認一下:如果市場成長 1% 或 2%,而你們的指引是 1% 到 4%,那你們的超越成長基本上就會涵蓋其中幾乎全部?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No. So let me go -- sorry, go ahead, finish your question.

    不。我先——抱歉,你先把問題問完。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • No, no, I was just trying to break apart what you consider outgrowth versus share gain.

    沒有沒有,我只是想把你們所說的超越成長(outgrowth)和市占提升(share gain)拆開來看。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So if you look at the overall volume growth that we have said, 1% to 4% in that share gain will be 1% to 2%. rest is market.

    所以如果你看我們所說的整體銷量成長 1% 到 4%,其中市占提升會是 1% 到 2%,其餘是市場帶來的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Dankert, D.A. Davidson.

    Chris Dankert,D.A. Davidson。

  • Chris Dankert - Analyst

    Chris Dankert - Analyst

  • I guess, apologies, a quick just clarification. I got a little bit lost on the explanation on price cost for fiscal '27 specifically. So again, if we take the $3.11 from this year and the $0.39 of raw material timing that we're benefiting from in '27, back that out, I'm coming to kind of a core ex price cost of about $1.15, is that right? And if not, could you just -- one more time run me through that, apologies.

    我想先道歉,快速確認一下。我在你們對財年 '27 的價格/成本(price cost)說明上有點跟不上。所以再確認一次:如果以今年的 3.11 美元,加上我們在 '27 受惠的 0.39 美元原物料時點(timing),把那個扣掉後,我算出一個不含價格/成本的核心(core ex price cost)大約是 1.15 美元,這樣對嗎?如果不對,能否再——不好意思——再帶我走一遍?

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • I think -- yes, Chris, I think you've got to take in the other factors that are in play there as you build it up, right? And so clearly, in terms of -- versus the prior year, and if you're bridging it all the way back, you've got the Bolivia FX, you got to take out of there, too, right, since the Bolivian government ended that preferential exchange rate program here this quarter. And so when I think about that price raw, certainly, we've got the $0.39 going on here in FY27. We've got the $3.11 going on from the prior year. That's the double stack, so to speak, right, if you pull all of that out.

    我想——是的,Chris,我認為你在建立那個橋接時,必須把其他正在發生的因素也納入,對吧?所以很明顯地,就相對於前一年而言,如果你一路橋接回去,你也得把玻利維亞匯率(Bolivia FX)影響扣掉,對吧?因為玻利維亞政府在本季結束了那個優惠匯率計畫。所以當我看價格/原料(price raw)時,當然,我們在 FY27 有 0.39 美元。我們在前一年有 3.11 美元。那就是所謂的雙重疊加(double stack),對吧,如果你把那些都剔除的話。

  • Chris Dankert - Analyst

    Chris Dankert - Analyst

  • And then I haven't seen anything in the presentation, was there any IEEPA benefit anywhere in the numbers here? Do we expect any benefit? Maybe just stake out anything around the tariff recovery.

    另外我在簡報裡沒看到任何內容:這些數字裡有任何 IEEPA 的利益嗎?我們預期會有任何受益嗎?也許你可以就關稅回收(tariff recovery)相關的部分說明一下。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Chris, we have applied for refunds, and we have received some, but it was immaterial to report. We continue to apply. Our overall plan at this point is that we will reinvest that to strengthen our overall supply chain security, supply network optimization and also product and service development to serve our customers better.

    是的,Chris,我們已申請退稅,我們也收到了一部分,但金額不重大,未達需要揭露的程度。我們會持續申請。我們目前的整體計畫是把這些資金再投資,用於強化整體供應鏈安全、供應網路最佳化,以及產品與服務開發,以更好地服務客戶。

  • But I would like to take the opportunity also to tell you that as you look at this situation that we were dealing with over the last 1.5 years, initially, we did incur some cost and then we implemented surcharges, but that was not our first action. First thing we did is to make sure that we have production moves. We moved several thousand parts around the world. We did supply chain network optimization, and then we passed along some of the surcharges.

    但我也想藉此機會告訴你,回顧過去 1.5 年我們所面對的情況,一開始我們確實承擔了一些成本,之後才導入附加費(surcharges),但那不是我們的第一個動作。我們做的第一件事是確保生產移轉。我們把數千個零件在全球各地移轉生產。我們做了供應鏈網路最佳化,然後才把部分附加費轉嫁出去。

  • Of course, even with the new policies in place, tariffs are more or less in the similar zone. So that's how we are looking at it, and we're managing it in an overall sense, and we'll continue to monitor and take appropriate actions.

    當然,即使新政策上路,關稅大致仍在相近的區間。所以我們就是這樣看待並以整體角度來管理,我們也會持續監控並採取適當行動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.

    Steve Volkmann,Jefferies。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Pat, thank you for the sort of cadence through '27. Obviously, the key and at least in my humble opinion, is sort of when we get back to kind of the core earnings of the company. So you talked about, I think, mid-teens EBITDA margin as sort of the 4Q exit rate for '27. I just want to make sure I had that right.

    Pat,謝謝你對 '27 的節奏做了說明。很明顯地,至少以我拙見,關鍵在於我們何時能回到公司所謂的核心獲利水準。所以你提到,我想是以 '27 年第4季作為退出水準(exit rate),EBITDA 利潤率大約在十幾個百分點的中段。我只是想確認我理解得沒錯。

  • All right. So two questions about that. One is, I guess, we sort of give up the timing arbitrage on the raws here, obviously. But revenue will sort of stay in the ZIP code it's in, I guess, assuming that tungsten stays where it is. So as I just do the sort of the dumb math, it feels like you're talking about kind of a $600 million-ish in EBITDA run rate to exit -- annual run rate to exit 4Q, mid-teens margin on $3-ish billion of sales. Is that the right way to think about the annualized way to do that? Sorry if this is confusing.

    好的。那關於這點有兩個問題。第一個是,我想我們在原材料這邊顯然是放棄了時點套利。但營收大概會維持在目前的區間內,我猜,前提是鎢價維持在目前水準。所以如果我用比較粗略的算法來算,感覺你是在說,退出——也就是到第4季結束時的年化退出運行率——EBITDA 大概是 6 億美元左右,在約 30 億美元的銷售額上有中十幾%的利潤率。這樣用年化的方式來理解是對的嗎?如果這樣問讓人困惑,抱歉。

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • I guess the way I would think about that, Steve, and so let's think about this from the standpoint of FY27 from an overall outlook perspective, you've got basically that they're, let's call it, $3.4 billion roughly, okay? You think about that and you take that now forward a year, right, in a flat tungsten environment, that's the number you're going to kind of iterate off of small amount of incremental price, whatever you think the incremental volume is. That's kind of where I would take that forward.

    Steve,我會這樣想:我們從 FY27 的整體展望角度來看,基本上你有大約——我們就說——約 34 億美元左右,好嗎?你把這個數字再往前推一年,對吧?在鎢價持平的環境下,這就是你會用來作為基礎去推演的數字,再加上一點點增量價格,以及你認為的增量銷量。我會這樣往前推。

  • From an EBITDA perspective, yes, that fourth quarter, mid-teens EBITDA, right, that we expect based on what we know today, that's going to be a clean price raw quarter.And so then you can apply, say, normal seasonality of the business then going forward to really generate what that FY28 EBITDA profile would be.

    從 EBITDA 的角度來看,是的,那個第四季,我們預期 EBITDA 會在中十幾%的水準,對吧?以我們今天所知道的情況來看,那將會是一個價格與原材料因素都比較乾淨的季度。然後你就可以套用例如業務的正常季節性,往後推算,來真正產生 FY28 的 EBITDA 輪廓。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. Helpful. And then switching to the free cash flow. Just you mentioned that that turns positive, I think, in the second half of FY27. Is this a situation where we're going to get like 150% or 200% free cash flow at some point and kind of recapture this? Or does it just kind of slowly go back to something higher than 20%?

    了解。好。很有幫助。接著切換到自由現金流。你剛提到我想是在 FY27 下半年轉正。這會不會是那種我們在某個時點會出現 150% 或 200% 的自由現金流,然後把這些補回來?還是它只是慢慢回到高於 20% 的水準?

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Yes. I would say when you think about this year and then how we've talked about what's going on from a price raw perspective, talking about cash flow effectively being the mirror image of that, right? And so when I think about how cash flow is going to develop this year, Q1 is going to be a sizable cash draw. And to put a fine point on that, probably in terms of just dollars around $200 million. And I would expect that that's going to basically be, call it, the high watermark, right, for the cash draw here.

    是的。我會說,當你思考今年,以及我們談到的價格/原材料面正在發生的事情時,可以把現金流視為它的鏡像,對吧?所以當我思考今年現金流會如何發展時,第1季會是一個相當大的現金流出。更精確地說,金額大概在 2 億美元左右。而我預期這基本上會是這次現金流出的高水位點。

  • And then in Q2, that would step down a little bit, right? And then in Q3, expectation is that now inflects positive. And that's more or less matching up with what's happening on the income statement on the price raw benefit, okay? It's just, again, somewhat the mirror image of that. And that's really driven by inventory valuation. And so obviously, you've seen there's a significant step-up here in inventory in the fourth quarter, anticipating another sizable inventory build here on valuation in Q3 and inventory will basically hit its peak for us here in the second quarter. Now we get into the back half of the year, back half of the year should have good positive cash flow to it.

    然後到第2季,現金流出會稍微下降一點,對吧?接著到第3季,預期就會轉為正向。而這或多或少會與損益表上價格/原材料帶來的利益相匹配,好嗎?同樣地,這在某種程度上就是它的鏡像。而這主要是由存貨評價所驅動。所以很明顯,你已經看到第四季存貨有顯著的躍升;我們預期在第3季按評價口徑還會有另一波相當可觀的存貨增加,而對我們而言存貨基本上會在第2季達到峰值。接著進入下半年,下半年應該會有不錯的正向現金流。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • And is FY28 like way above $100 million or just directionally?

    那 FY28 會是遠高於 1 億美元,還是只是方向性地更高?

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • I would simply say with respect to FY28 and kind of beyond, we would get -- we would return to a normalized cash generation profile. Again assuming, it comes (inaudible)

    我只想說,就 FY28 以及更往後來看,我們會——我們會回到一個正常化的現金創造輪廓。同樣假設,這會(聽不清楚)

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Chris Dankert, D.A. Davidson.

    (接線生指示) Chris Dankert,D.A. Davidson。

  • Chris Dankert - Analyst

    Chris Dankert - Analyst

  • Hoping you can help me out on one other aspect of the fiscal '27 guide. So if I look at the operations bucket, we're looking at $0.53 for the year. If I back out the things you flagged there, the raw materials, lower incentive comp, restructuring, I'm kind of left with a core volume wage inflation number looks like a negative $0.15, $0.18, whatever EPS impact. So like how are we getting negative contribution on kind of the core volume? And just again, apologies if I'm misinterpreting that.

    希望你能幫我釐清財年 '27 指引的另一個面向。所以如果我看「營運」這個項目,今年是 0.53 美元。如果我把你提到的那些因素扣掉——原材料、較低的激勵薪酬、重整——我剩下的核心量與薪資通膨數字,看起來像是每股盈餘影響為負的 0.15、0.18 美元之類。所以像是,我們怎麼會在核心量上得到負貢獻?再次抱歉,如果我解讀錯了。

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • The way I look at that in terms of what's sitting in there, right, you got the $0.53. You got -- obviously, you got favorability in the raw material timing of $0.39. You've got the favorability on the comp coming in as well, right? You should have some favorability coming through, obviously, on the restructuring. We're going to have a little bit of, I'll just call it, the normal wage inflation and things like that that are going on in the course of the business.

    我看那裡面包含的內容是這樣:你有 0.53 美元。你有——很明顯——原材料時點帶來的有利因素 0.39 美元。你也有薪酬方面帶來的有利因素,對吧?你也應該會看到重整帶來的一些有利因素。我們會有一點點——我就稱之為——正常的薪資通膨,以及在日常營運過程中發生的其他事情。

  • And again, this is obviously at the midpoint as well, right? When you think about this over the context of the outlook, the outlook has some variability built to price into it as well, just again, given the sheer amount of tungsten going through the business today and how much price we're going after.

    而且再次強調,這顯然也是以中點來看,對吧?當你在展望的脈絡下思考時,展望本身也把價格的某些變動性納入了,這同樣是因為目前業務中鎢的用量非常大,以及我們正在追求的價格幅度有多大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Sanjay Chowbey for any closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Sanjay Chowbey,請他做任何結語。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. As always, we appreciate your interest and support. Please don't hesitate to reach out to Mike if you have any questions. Have a great day.

    謝謝你,接線生,也謝謝各位今天加入電話會議。一如既往,我們感謝各位的關注與支持。如果你有任何問題,請隨時聯絡 Mike。祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • A replay of this event will be available approximately 1 hour after its conclusion. To access the replay, you may dial toll-free within the United States at (855) 669-9658. Outside of the United States, you may dial (412) 317-0088. You will be prompted to enter your conference ID 2709076 then the pound or hash symbol. You will be asked to record your name and company.

    本活動的重播將在結束後約 1 小時提供。如要收聽重播,您可在美國境內撥打免付費電話 (855) 669-9658。在美國境外,您可撥打 (412) 317-0088。系統將提示您輸入會議 ID 2709076,然後按井號鍵。系統也會要求您錄下您的姓名與公司。

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

    本次電話會議現在結束。感謝您參加今天的簡報。您現在可以中斷連線。