Kennametal Inc (KMT) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to Kennametal's first quarter and fiscal 2026 earnings conference call (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded.

    早安.歡迎各位參加肯納金屬公司 2026 財年第一季及業績電話會議(操作說明)。請注意,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Pici, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁邁克爾·皮奇。請繼續。

  • Michael Pici - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Michael Pici - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Kennametal's first quarter fiscal 2026 results. This morning, we issued our earnings press release and posted our presentation slides on our website. We will be referring to that slide deck throughout today's call.

    謝謝接線生。歡迎各位,感謝大家與我們一起回顧肯納金屬公司 2026 財年第一季的業績。今天上午,我們發布了盈利新聞稿,並將簡報發佈在了我們的網站上。在今天的電話會議中,我們將多次參考這份投影片。

  • I'm Michael Pici, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today are: Sanjay Chowbey, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Pat Watson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After Sanjay and Pat's prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions.

    我是投資者關係副總裁麥可‧皮奇。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有:總裁兼執行長 Sanjay Chowbey;以及副總裁兼財務長 Pat Watson。在桑杰和帕特發言結束後,我們將開放提問環節。

  • At this time, I would like to direct your attention to our forward-looking disclosure statement. Today's discussion contains comments that constitute forward-looking statements and as such, involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such statements. These risk factors and uncertainties are detailed in Kennametal's SEC filings.

    此時,我想請各位注意我們的前瞻性揭露聲明。今天的討論包含一些構成前瞻性陳述的評論,因此涉及許多假設、風險和不確定性,這些假設、風險和不確定性可能導致公司的實際業績、表現或成就與此類陳述中明示或暗示的內容存在重大差異。這些風險因素和不確定性在肯納金屬公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中均有詳細說明。

  • In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. Reconciliations to GAAP financial measures that we believe are most directly comparable can be found at the back of the slide deck and on our Form 8-K on our website.

    此外,我們今天也將在電話會議上討論非GAAP財務指標。我們認為與 GAAP 財務指標最直接可比較的調整表可以在投影片的背面以及我們網站上的 8-K 表格中找到。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay.

    接下來,我會把電話交給桑傑。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Mike. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'll begin the call today with a brief overview of the quarter, including some end market commentary, followed by a spotlight on one of our growth focus areas, Power Generation. From there, Pat will cover the quarterly financial results as well as the fiscal year '26 outlook. Finally, I'll make some summary comments, and then we will open the line for questions.

    謝謝你,麥克。早安,感謝各位的參與。今天我將首先簡要概述本季度情況,包括一些終端市場評論,然後重點介紹我們的成長重點領域之一——發電。接下來,帕特將介紹季度財務業績以及 2026 財年的展望。最後,我將做一些總結性評論,然後我們將開放提問環節。

  • Turning to Slide 3. Let me begin by addressing some of the highlights from our strong first quarter. Our global commercial teams continue to advance our strategic growth initiatives. In the quarter, infrastructure secured two large project wins within our Earthworks end market. Both wins were a direct result of our team's efforts with those customers to deliver high-quality technical support and superior product performance. That combination has and will continue to be a winning formula for us.

    翻到第三張幻燈片。首先,我想談談我們在第一季取得的一些亮點。我們的全球商業團隊將繼續推進我們的策略成長計劃。本季度,基礎設施業務在土方工程終端市場中贏得了兩個大型專案。這兩場勝利都是我們團隊與客戶共同努力,提供高品質技術支援和卓越產品性能的直接成果。這種組合過去是、現在是、將來也仍是我們制勝的秘訣。

  • In Metal Cutting, we won projects in Energy, Aerospace and Defense and Transportation. For example, we increased our share of wallet with an aerospace customer to provide high precision tooling solutions for machining military components. As you know, we continue to prioritize above-market growth, and these wins position us well in markets that are benefiting from long-term secular growth trends.

    在金屬切削領域,我們贏得了能源、航太與國防以及交通運輸等產業的計畫。例如,我們增加了與航空航太客戶的合作份額,為其提供用於加工軍用零件的高精度刀具解決方案。如您所知,我們一直優先考慮高於市場平均水平的成長,這些勝利使我們在受益於長期成長趨勢的市場中佔據了有利地位。

  • We also continue to respond to the evolving tariff landscape, and we remain committed to fully offsetting the impact of tariffs through various actions, including product moves, supply chain optimization and surcharges as appropriate. Separately, we have implemented pricing actions in response to the continuing rise in tungsten costs, which have increased since August and are at historically high levels. We remain confident in our ability to price to offset the rising tungsten costs.

    我們將繼續應對不斷變化的關稅環境,並繼續致力於透過各種措施(包括產品調整、供應鏈優化和酌情加收附加費)來完全抵消關稅的影響。另外,針對鎢成本持續上漲的情況,我們採取了價格應對措施。自 8 月以來,鎢成本持續上漲,目前已達到歷史高點。我們仍然有信心透過定價來抵銷鎢成本上漲的影響。

  • On the cost improvement front, we realized $8 million in restructuring savings this quarter, and we continue to execute our plans to lower structural cost by reducing employment costs and consolidating manufacturing operations.

    在成本改善方面,本季我們透過重組節省了 800 萬美元,我們將繼續執行降低結構性成本的計劃,包括減少用工成本和整合生產營運。

  • Now let's move to our quarterly results, which exceeded the sales and EPS outlook we provided last quarter. Compared to the outlook, sales were primarily driven by better-than-expected volume across all end markets. EPS benefited from the additional volume and a lower-than-anticipated tax rate. Year-over-year, sales increased 3% organically. That's our first quarter of organic growth in two years and reflects modest relief from the broad market weakness that has impacted our end markets for the past 8 quarters.

    現在讓我們來看看季度業績,該業績超過了我們上個季度給出的銷售額和每股收益預期。與預期相比,銷售額主要得益於所有終端市場銷售量均優於預期。每股收益受益於銷售增加和低於預期的稅率。與上年同期相比,銷售額自然成長了3%。這是我們兩年來首次實現有機成長,反映出過去 8 個季度以來一直影響我們終端市場的整體市場疲軟狀況有所緩解。

  • As you may recall, historically, down cycles tend to last four to eight quarters. Adjusted EPS increased to $0.34 compared to $0.29 in the prior year quarter. In terms of profitability, adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.3% compared to 14.3% in the prior year quarter.

    你可能還記得,從歷史上看,經濟下行週期往往會持續四到八個季度。調整後的每股收益增至 0.34 美元,而上年同期為 0.29 美元。從獲利能力來看,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.3%,而去年同期為 14.3%。

  • Cash from operating activities year-to-date was $17 million compared to $46 million in the prior year period. Free operating cash flow year-to-date was negative $5 million compared to $21 million in the prior year. And finally, we returned $25 million to shareholders through share repurchases of $10 million and dividends of $15 million.

    今年迄今為止,經營活動產生的現金流量為 1,700 萬美元,而去年同期為 4,600 萬美元。今年迄今的自由經營現金流為負 500 萬美元,而去年同期為 2,100 萬美元。最後,我們透過股票回購 1,000 萬美元和股利 1,500 萬美元,向股東返還了 2,500 萬美元。

  • Today, we are raising our sales and EPS outlook for fiscal '26. This update reflects the modestly improved market conditions, additional price and tariff surcharges and our favorable performance in the first quarter. Pat will provide more details on our updated outlook shortly. In summary, we are pleased with this quarter's results, and we continue to focus on delivering our commitments throughout fiscal '26.

    今天,我們上調了對 2026 財年的銷售額和每股收益預期。本次更新反映了市場狀況的略微改善、額外的價格和關稅附加費以及我們在第一季的良好業績。Pat稍後將提供更多關於我們最新展望的細節。總而言之,我們對本季的業績感到滿意,並將繼續專注於在整個 2026 財年履行我們的承諾。

  • Turning to Slide 4 and our end market update. As a reminder, our full year outlook reflects forecasts of specific market drivers and general market conditions. I will focus on the bottom half of the slide and address the two markets that have changed since our last call.

    接下來請看第 4 張投影片,了解我們的終端市場最新狀況。再次提醒,我們的全年展望反映了對特定市場驅動因素和整體市場狀況的預測。我將重點放在幻燈片的下半部分,並談論自上次通話以來發生變化的兩個市場。

  • First, IHS estimates for Transportation slightly improved from the previous estimate, while still being in the negative low single-digit range. Volumes in the Americas have improved from the prior estimate, partially offset by pressure that continues to impact EMEA.

    首先,IHS 對交通運輸業的預測比先前的預測略有改善,但仍處於負個位數範圍內。美洲地區的銷售量較先前的預期有所改善,但部分被持續影響歐洲、中東和非洲地區的壓力所抵消。

  • And secondly, for Aerospace and Defense, expectations are improving as the aerospace industry has recovered from supply chain challenges and will benefit from the recent approval that will increase OEM production. Market factors remain mostly unchanged within the other end markets.

    其次,對於航空航太和國防領域而言,隨著航空航太業從供應鏈挑戰中恢復過來,預期正在改善,並將受益於最近的批准,這將增加 OEM 產量。其他終端市場的市場因素基本上維持不變。

  • Turning to Slide 5. We are seeing emerging opportunities in Power Generation, driven by rising demand for both renewable and traditional energy sources to support the expansion of AI data centers. This is an expanding opportunity for Kennametal across both of our segments, and we are capitalizing on this trend.

    翻到第5張投影片。我們看到,在人工智慧資料中心擴張的推動下,對再生能源和傳統能源的需求不斷增長,這為發電領域帶來了新的機會。對於肯納金屬而言,這在我們兩個業務部門都是一個不斷擴大的機遇,我們正在充分利用這一趨勢。

  • As we shared last quarter, we secured a key win in Metal Cutting connected to the backup generators that are providing energy security to those data centers. And it's our deep expertise in application engineering and machining complex engine components that is positioning us particularly well to support customers as they manufacture backup power generation systems and utility scale gas turbines.

    正如我們上個季度所分享的,我們在金屬切割領域取得了一項關鍵性勝利,該領域與為資料中心提供能源安全的備用發電機相關。我們在應用工程和複雜引擎零件加工方面的深厚專業知識,使我們能夠更好地支援客戶製造備用發電系統和公用事業規模的燃氣渦輪機。

  • With respect to the gas turbines, these applications require the same capabilities that we have long applied in Aerospace and Defense. So this is also an area that we know very well. While this slide focused on Metal Cutting, the opportunity extends across both segments.

    就燃氣渦輪機而言,這些應用需要與我們長期以來在航空航太和國防領域應用的相同能力。所以,這也是我們非常熟悉的領域。雖然這張投影片主要關注金屬切削,但這種機會也適用於這兩個領域。

  • In Infrastructure, our wear-resistant solutions and a strong position in oil and gas extraction aligns with the growing need for natural gas as a reliable fuel source for uninterrupted power. So while our recent wins are in backup power systems, the opportunity is much broader, and we are well positioned to capitalize on that as the trend continues.

    在基礎設施領域,我們耐磨的解決方案以及在石油和天然氣開採領域的強大地位,與天然氣作為不間斷電力可靠燃料來源的日益增長的需求相契合。因此,雖然我們最近在備用電源系統領域取得了成功,但機會遠不止於此,而且隨著這一趨勢的持續,我們已經做好充分準備來把握這一機會。

  • Now let me turn the call over to Pat, who will review the first quarter financial performance and the outlook.

    現在我把電話交給帕特,他將回顧第一季的財務表現和展望。

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Thank you, Sanjay, and good morning, everyone. I will begin on Slide 6 with a review of the first quarter operating results. Sales were up 3% year-over-year on both a reported and organic basis. At the segment level, Metal Cutting and Infrastructure both increased 3% organically and by end market. On a constant currency basis, Aerospace and Defense grew 20%;

    謝謝你,桑傑,大家早安。我將從第 6 張投影片開始,回顧第一季的經營業績。無論是以報告數據或以有機成長數據計算,銷售額均較去年同期成長 3%。從細分市場來看,金屬切割和基礎設施業務的有機成長和終端市場成長均達到 3%。以固定匯率計算,航空航太和國防產業成長了20%;

  • Earthworks grew 5%; Energy increased 1%; General Engineering was flat and Transportation declined 1%. Regionally, on a constant currency basis, sales in the Americas increased 7%, EMEA was flat and sales decreased 1% in Asia Pacific.

    土方工程成長了 5%;能源成長了 1%;通用工程持平;交通運輸下降了 1%。以固定匯率計算,美洲地區的銷售額成長了 7%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額持平,亞太地區的銷售額下降了 1%。

  • The sales performance this quarter exceeded the outlook we provided last quarter. Relative to those expectations, share gains in Earthworks, better-than-expected auto build rates and overall modest volume improvements were the catalysts for the outperformance. I will provide more color when reviewing the segment performance in a moment.

    本季的銷售業績超過了我們上季給出的預期。與預期相比,Earthworks 業務的份額成長、汽車生產力優於預期以及整體銷售小幅成長是業績超出預期的催化劑。稍後在分析該板塊表現時,我會提供更多細節。

  • Adjusted EBITDA and operating margins were 15.3% and 8.2%, respectively, versus 14.3% and 7.6% in the prior year quarter. The improved margin was driven by price and tariff surcharges and incremental year-over-year restructuring savings of $8 million, partially offset by higher compensation costs, tariffs and general inflation and a prior year benefit from net insurance proceeds of $4 million that did not repeat in the current year. Adjusted EPS was $0.34 in the quarter versus $0.29 in the prior year period. The main drivers of our EPS performance are highlighted on the bridge on Slide 7.

    調整後的 EBITDA 和營業利潤率分別為 15.3% 和 8.2%,而去年同期分別為 14.3% 和 7.6%。利潤率的提高主要得益於價格和關稅附加費以及同比重組節省的 800 萬美元,但部分被更高的補償成本、關稅和一般通貨膨脹以及上一年 400 萬美元的淨保險收益所抵消,而這筆收益在本年度並未重現。本季調整後每股收益為 0.34 美元,去年同期為 0.29 美元。幻燈片 7 的橋樑圖中重點介紹了我們 EPS 績效的主要驅動因素。

  • The year-over-year effect of operations this quarter was positive $0.05. This reflects incremental restructuring benefits, favorable timing of price/raw material costs, tariff surcharges and the advanced manufacturing tax credit, partially offset by higher compensation costs, tariffs and general inflation. The headwind of $0.04 from the net insurance benefits received in the prior year due to the tornado that damaged our Rogers facility. You can also see $0.04 of transactional gains related to preferential Bolivia exchange rates.

    本季營運年增率為正 0.05 美元。這反映了重組帶來的增量收益、價格/原材料成本的有利時機、關稅附加費和先進製造業稅收抵免,但部分被更高的薪資成本、關稅和整體通貨膨脹所抵消。由於上一年龍捲風損壞了我們在羅傑斯的工廠,我們收到的淨保險賠償金減少了 0.04 美元。您還可以看到與玻利維亞優惠匯率相關的 0.04 美元的交易收益。

  • Slides 8 and 9 detail the performance of our segments this quarter. Reported Metal Cutting sales were up 5% compared to the prior year quarter with 3% organic growth and favorable foreign currency exchange of 2%. Regionally, excluding the effects of currency, the Americas increased 6%, EMEA increased 1% and Asia Pacific declined 1%.

    第 8 頁和第 9 頁詳細介紹了我們各業務部門本季的業績。據報道,金屬切割業務銷售額較上年同期成長 5%,其中有機成長 3%,外匯匯率有利成長 2%。從區域來看,不考慮匯率的影響,美洲成長了 6%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長了 1%,亞太地區下降了 1%。

  • Looking at sales by end market, Aerospace and Defense increased 16% year-over-year from improved build rates in the Americas and easing supply chain pressures in EMEA. Energy grew 12% this quarter due to data center power generation wins. General Engineering was flat year-over-year from lower production activity, primarily in EMEA. And lastly, Transportation declined 1% year-over-year due to project timing in Asia Pacific and an overall slowdown in EMEA and the Americas.

    從終端市場來看,由於美洲地區生產力的提高和歐洲、中東及非洲地區供應鏈壓力的緩解,航空航太和國防領域的銷售額年增了 16%。由於資料中心發電專案的成功,本季能源產業成長了 12%。通用工程業務較去年同期持平,主要原因是生產活動減少,尤其是在歐洲、中東和非洲地區。最後,由於亞太地區的專案進度以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及美洲地區的整體經濟放緩,交通運輸業較去年同期下降了 1%。

  • Metal Cutting adjusted operating margin of 8% decreased 20 basis points year-over-year, primarily from higher compensation costs, tariffs and general inflation. These factors are partially offset by higher prices and surcharges and incremental year-over-year restructuring savings of approximately $6 million.

    金屬切割業務的調整後營業利潤率為 8%,較去年同期下降 20 個基點,主要原因是薪資成本、關稅和一般通貨膨脹率上升。這些因素部分被更高的價格和附加費以及每年約 600 萬美元的重組節省所抵消。

  • Turning to Slide 9 for Infrastructure. Infrastructure sales increased 3% organically with reported sales growth of 1%, which was negatively affected 3 points from the divestiture, which closed in June. Regionally, on a constant currency basis, Americas sales increased 7%, Asia Pacific was flat and EMEA sales decreased by 3%.

    接下來請看第9張投影片,了解基礎設施部分。基礎設施銷售額有機成長 3%,報告銷售額成長 1%,但受 6 月完成的資產剝離的影響,銷售額下降了 3 個百分點。以固定匯率計算,美洲地區的銷售額成長了 7%,亞太地區的銷售額持平,而歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額下降了 3%。

  • Looking at sales by end market on a constant currency basis, Aerospace and Defense increased 28% from defense orders driven by continued execution on our growth initiatives in both EMEA and the Americas. Earthworks increased 5% due to mining share gains in the Americas and higher global construction demand, partially offset by Asia Pacific mining market softness.

    以固定匯率計算,航空航太和國防領域的銷售額成長了 28%,這主要得益於我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及美洲地區持續推進的成長計畫所帶來的國防訂單成長。土方工程成長 5%,主要原因是美洲採礦市場份額增加以及全球建築需求上升,但亞太地區採礦市場疲軟部分抵消了這一增長。

  • General Engineering was flat due to higher powder demand in the Americas and higher demand in Asia, partially offset by lower industrial activity in EMEA. And lastly, Energy declined 5%, mainly in EMEA, driven by project timing and from a lower US land rig count.

    通用工程業務持平,原因是美洲和亞洲的粉末需求增加,但歐洲、中東和非洲地區的工業活動減少部分抵消了這一成長。最後,能源板塊下降了 5%,主要原因是 EMEA 地區專案進度放緩以及美國陸上鑽機數量減少。

  • Adjusted operating margin increased 190 basis points year-over-year to 8.8%. Adjusted operating income of $17 million increased primarily due to the favorable timing of pricing compared to raw material costs, partially offset by prior year net insurance proceeds of $4 million and higher compensation costs and general inflation. Additionally, we recognized year-over-year restructuring savings of approximately $2 million.

    調整後的營業利益率年增 190 個基點,達到 8.8%。調整後的營業收入為 1700 萬美元,主要原因是定價時機相對於原材料成本有利,但部分被上一年淨保險賠款 400 萬美元、更高的薪酬成本和一般通貨膨脹所抵消。此外,我們實現了與前一年相比約 200 萬美元的重組節省。

  • Now turning to Slide 10 to review our free operating cash flow and balance sheet. Our first quarter net cash flow from operating activities was $17 million compared to $46 million in the prior year period. The change in net cash flow from operating activities was driven by working capital changes, including a higher investment in inventory, primarily from rising tungsten prices. Because sales volumes declined less than normal from the fourth quarter of FY25 and pricing and tungsten value was up, working capital was a more challenging comparison this quarter.

    現在請翻到第 10 張投影片,回顧我們的自由經營現金流量表和資產負債表。我們第一季經營活動產生的淨現金流為 1,700 萬美元,而去年同期為 4,600 萬美元。經營活動產生的淨現金流量的變化是由營運資本的變化所驅動的,其中包括庫存投資的增加,這主要是由於鎢價上漲所致。由於本季銷售量較 2025 財年第四季下降幅度小於正常水平,且鎢價上漲,因此本季營運資本的比較更具挑戰性。

  • Our first quarter free operating cash flow decreased to negative $5 million from positive $21 million in the prior year, primarily from the lower cash flow from operations. On a dollar basis, year-over-year, primary working capital increased to $660 million and on a percentage of sales basis, it increased to 32%. Net capital expenditures of $23 million declined modestly from $25 million in the prior year quarter. In total, we returned $25 million to shareholders through our share repurchase and dividend programs. We repurchased 475,000 shares or $10 million in Q1 under our $200 million authorization.

    我們第一季的自由經營現金流從去年同期的 2,100 萬美元正值降至 500 萬美元負值,主要原因是經營活動產生的現金流減少。以美元計算,與去年同期相比,主要營運資本增加至 6.6 億美元;以銷售額百分比計算,增加至 32%。淨資本支出為 2,300 萬美元,較上年同期的 2,500 萬美元略有下降。我們透過股票回購和分紅計劃,總共向股東返還了 2,500 萬美元。第一季度,我們根據 2 億美元的授權回購了 475,000 股股票,價值 1,000 萬美元。

  • And as we have every quarter since becoming a public company over 50 years ago, we paid a dividend to our shareholders. We remain committed to returning cash to shareholders while executing our strategy to drive growth and margin improvement. We continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet and debt maturity profile with no near-term refunding requirements.

    就像 50 多年前成為上市公司以來的每季一樣,我們向股東派發了股利。我們將繼續致力於向股東返還現金,同時執行我們的策略以推動成長和利潤率提升。我們繼續保持健康的資產負債表和債務到期結構,近期沒有再融資需求。

  • At quarter end, we had combined cash and revolver availability of approximately $800 million, and we're well within our financial covenants. The full balance sheet can be found on Slide 17 in the appendix.

    截至季末,我們共有約 8 億美元的現金和循環信貸額度,完全符合我們的財務契約要求。完整的資產負債表可在附錄第 17 頁找到。

  • Now on Slide 11 regarding the full year outlook. We now expect FY26 sales to be between $2.1 billion and $2.17 billion, with volume ranging from negative 1% to positive 3%, net price and tariff surcharge combined of approximately 7%, and we anticipate approximately 2% tailwind from foreign exchange. We now expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.35 to $1.65. The increased outlook reflects additional pricing actions related to the rising cost of tungsten and additional surcharges in place to address the changes in policy since our August call.

    現在來看第11張幻燈片,關於全年展望。我們現在預計 2026 財年的銷售額將在 21 億美元至 21.7 億美元之間,銷量將下降 1% 至上升 3%,淨價和關稅附加費合計約為 7%,我們預計外匯匯率將帶來約 2% 的利好。我們現在預計調整後每股收益將在 1.35 美元至 1.65 美元之間。預期上調反映了與鎢成本上漲相關的額外定價措施,以及自 8 月電話會議以來為因應政策變化而實施的額外附加費。

  • The adjusted tax rate for the year is now 27%. And as a result of the additional cash that we need to invest in inventory due to higher tungsten costs, free operating cash flow as a percent of adjusted net income is now 100%. All of the other elements of our outlook remain unchanged.

    本年度調整後的稅率為27%。由於鎢價上漲,我們需要投入更多現金用於庫存,因此自由經營現金流佔調整後淨收入的百分比現在為 100%。我們展望的其他所有要素都保持不變。

  • Turning to Slide 12 regarding our second quarter outlook. We expect Q2 sales to be between $500 million and $520 million, with volume ranging from negative 4% to flat, price and tariff surcharge realization of approximately 7% and a 2% positive impact from foreign exchange. One comment regarding the adjusted effective tax rate this quarter. The rate of approximately 30% assumes a discrete item that is driving the rate higher in Q1 than our full year outlook. We expect adjusted EPS in the range of $0.30 to $0.40. The other key assumptions for the quarter are all noted on the slide.

    接下來請看第 12 張投影片,了解我們第二季的展望。我們預計第二季銷售額將在 5 億美元至 5.2 億美元之間,銷量將下降 4% 至持平,價格和關稅附加費實現約為 7%,外匯匯率將帶來 2% 的正面影響。關於本季調整後的實際稅率,有一點需要說明。約 30% 的成長率假設存在一個特殊因素,導致第一季的成長率高於我們全年的預期。我們預計調整後每股收益在 0.30 美元至 0.40 美元之間。本季其他關鍵假設均已在幻燈片中列出。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back over to Sanjay.

    那麼,我就把麥克風交還給桑傑了。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Pat. Turning to Slide 13. Let me take a few minutes to summarize. We delivered a solid first quarter, thanks to modest improvements in a couple of end markets, project wins on commercial side and cost improvement actions. We continue to make steady progress on our strategic growth initiatives, lean transformation and a structural cost improvement while also exploring ways to strengthen our portfolio over time.

    謝謝你,帕特。翻到第13張幻燈片。讓我花幾分鐘時間總結一下。由於幾個終端市場的適度改善、商業方面的項目中標以及成本改進措施,我們第一季業績穩健。我們在策略性成長計劃、精益轉型和結構性成本改進方面持續穩步推進,同時也在探索如何隨著時間的推移加強我們的產品組合。

  • In parallel, we are monitoring external drivers such as trade and monetary policies and raw material prices and taking timely and necessary actions. We remain confident in our plan for long-term value creation for our shareholders.

    同時,我們正在密切關注貿易和貨幣政策以及原材料價格等外部因素,並及時採取必要的行動。我們對為股東創造長期價值的計劃仍然充滿信心。

  • And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

    接線員,現在可以開始接受提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

    安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略,摩根士丹利。

  • Angel Castillo - Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Good morning congrats on a strong quarter here. I just wanted to touch base a little bit more on the end market outlook. I think, you noted a little bit on the kind of prepared remarks about what you're seeing across end markets.

    您好,早安。早安,恭喜你們本季業績出色。我只是想再稍微談談終端市場前景。我認為,您已經稍微提到了一些關於您在終端市場中看到的情況的準備發言。

  • But I think it kind of stood out to me that some of the changes on Slide 4 for each end market were quite notable in terms of going from down to up or materially kind of more into the double digits, all the while some of the kind of market factors that are listed below seemed a lot more muted to unchanged.

    但我認為最讓我印象深刻的是,第 4 張投影片中每個終端市場的一些變化相當顯著,從下降到上升,或者實質地達到了兩位數,而下面列出的一些市場因素似乎則顯得較為平淡或沒有變化。

  • Can you just clarify, I guess, within each of these, what specifically is kind of driving the material kind of uplift? And in particular, maybe also from a regional standpoint, how should we think about the mix of which regions are driving kind of the improved outlook for each of these?

    能否請您具體說明一下,在這些因素中,究竟是什麼因素在推動物質層面的提升?特別是從區域角度來看,我們應該如何看待哪些區域正在推動這些方面前景的改善?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, hank you, Angel. Good question. So let me walk you through that slide, which is Slide 4. Just first of all, as a reminder, on that slide, the top half of the slide is basically reflecting our sales trend and the bottom half of the page reflects what is the external factor, which is the market. So in all of these end markets, there are three pieces: first one is, APT and surcharge -- APT-related price increase and surcharges; second is, market itself, whether the market improved or it stayed flat; and the third piece is, project wins and share gains.

    謝謝你,天使。問得好。那麼讓我帶你一起看一下這張投影片,也就是第 4 張投影片。首先提醒一下,這張投影片上半部主要反映了我們的銷售趨勢,下半部反映了外部因素,也就是市場狀況。因此,在所有這些終端市場中,有三個部分:第一部分是 APT 和附加費——與 APT 相關的價格上漲和附加費;第二部分是市場本身,市場是改善了還是保持平穩;第三部分是專案中標和市場份額成長。

  • So as we discussed in our prepared remarks, there were definitely some markets where we had bigger benefit of project wins, for example, in Aerospace and also in Energy, especially in the Power Generation side.

    正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所討論的那樣,在某些市場,我們確實從專案中獲益更多,例如航空航天和能源,特別是發電領域。

  • Now let me walk you through the other factors. So like I said, APT and surcharge-related price affects all end markets. Specific to where we saw changes in end market in Transportation and Aerospace where we saw the biggest change -- changes. Let me walk you through that a little bit.

    現在讓我帶你了解其他因素。正如我所說,APT 和附加費相關價格會影響所有終端市場。具體來說,我們在交通運輸和航空航天終端市場看到了最大的變化——變化。讓我來給你簡單解釋一下。

  • So for Transportation, we saw Americas coming out a little bit stronger in the Q1, and we have outlook at this point also for the full year and based on even IHS data that we expect while still being in the low single digit in a negative territory, the Transportation IHS forecast at this point is improved from the prior outlook we had three months ago.

    因此,就交通運輸領域而言,我們看到美洲在第一季表現略有強勢,目前我們對全年也有展望,即使根據 IHS 的數據,我們預計儘管仍將處於個位數負增長區間,但 IHS 目前的交通運輸預測比我們三個月前的預測有所改善。

  • In Aerospace, the customer build rate and also supply chain constraint easing up and also from a Defense perspective, definitely, we are seeing market to be stronger in that regard. Earthworks, when you see the arrow going up on the top of the page -- half of the page, that is mostly driven by share win.

    在航空航太領域,客戶的生產速度和供應鏈限制都在放鬆;從國防角度來看,我們確實看到市場在這方面更加強勁。土方工程,當您看到頁面頂部向上移動的箭頭時——佔據頁面的一半,這主要是由市場份額增長驅動的。

  • Same thing in Energy. Energy is more or less staying flat with respect to oil and gas. If you look at the rig counts and all that, about the same as where we anticipated three months ago. But we have had good project wins when it comes to the Power Generation and that helped in the Energy.

    能源領域也是如此。能源價格,尤其是石油和天然氣價格,基本上保持穩定。如果你看看鑽井平台數量等等,你會發現跟我們三個月前的預期差不多。但在發電領域,我們取得了一些不錯的項目,這對能源產業有所幫助。

  • And in General Engineering, we are seeing improvements. In Q1, we have seen some. But for you look at -- when you look at the full year, other than China, more or less, I think we're seeing slight improvement or flattish type situation in the Gen Eng when it comes to IPI. So that's really what we have at this point.

    在通用工程領域,我們也看到了進展。第一季我們已經看到了一些。但如果你縱觀全年,除了中國以外,我認為我們看到通用工程在IPI方面略有改善或趨於平穩。這就是我們目前所掌握的情況。

  • Again, in summary, APT and surcharge helping and share wins are also helping along with that and modest improvement in a couple of end markets.

    總之,APT 和附加費的增加以及市場份額的提升也起到了一定的幫助作用,此外,一些終端市場也出現了小幅改善。

  • Angel Castillo - Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. And maybe just as my follow-up, just to kind of double-click on some of these numbers. But maybe on the market share dynamic, could you just give us a little bit more color as to -- is that because the kind of cadence of wins here maybe it's seemingly accelerating in some of these end markets. Is there something about either the product that's really resonating with customers? Is it more related to being competitive advantages to being a domestic producer?

    那很有幫助。也許作為後續補充,我還要再仔細查看這些數字。但關於市場佔有率動態,您能否再詳細解釋一下——這是因為在某些終端市場,這種勝利的節奏似乎正在加快嗎?這款產品是否有某些特質真正引起了顧客的共鳴?這是否更與作為國內生產商的競爭優勢有關?

  • And then as it relates to this or maybe more to the price dynamic that's driving some of these improvements, any concerns here that as you look at tungsten prices or kind of you're passing through higher prices here, any concerns that people start to consider either trading to other non-tungsten equipment? Or I guess, anything that you would note as it pertains to kind of elasticity of the customer to be willing to continue to kind of take these higher prices?

    那麼,就此而言,或者更確切地說,就推動這些改進的價格動態而言,您是否擔心,隨著鎢價上漲,或者您正在經歷更高的價格,人們是否會開始考慮換用其他非鎢設備?或者,我想問的是,關於顧客願意繼續接受這些較高價格的彈性方面,您有什麼需要注意的嗎?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. so first of all, with respect to share gain, it is definitely driven by what we have discussed before, the three main drivers: first, innovative solutions; secondly, our commercial excellence, which includes our engagement with customers and application support; and third, operational excellence. Our overall operational performance at this point, including safety, by the way. Safety, quality, on-time delivery has been very good. We continue to make good progress on that. So I think all of those combinations are definitely helping us in share gain.

    當然。首先,就市場佔有率成長而言,這無疑是由我們之前討論過的三大主要驅動因素所驅動的:第一,創新解決方案;第二,我們卓越的商業能力,包括我們與客戶的互動和應用支援;第三,卓越的營運能力。順便提一下,我們目前的整體營運表現,包括安全方面。安全性、品質和準時交貨都非常好。我們在這方面持續取得良好進展。所以我認為所有這些組合肯定都有助於我們提升市場佔有率。

  • With respect to -- I think just to confirm, your second part of the question was, can you remind me?

    關於──我想確認一下,你問題的第二部分是,你能提醒我嗎?

  • Michael Pici - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Michael Pici - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Moving something away from.

    將某物移開。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Yeah. Sorry, yeah.

    好的。是的。抱歉,是的。

  • Angel Castillo - Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Analyst

  • Yeah, so specific to the customers for the price increases in tungsten?

    是的,所以鎢的價格上漲是專門針對客戶的嗎?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Got it. Yes. Tungsten, yes. We have looked at that -- from our perspective, what we provide in terms of the innovative solutions, I believe that the value customers get through our solutions has -- is very strong in terms of like even with higher tungsten prices, it will make more sense for them to continue using that rather than changing it to stainless steel or some other type because the performance that they receive from our solution will more than offset even the increase that they're going to see from the tungsten prices.

    知道了。是的。是的,是鎢。我們已經考慮過這一點——從我們的角度來看,我們提供的創新解決方案,我認為客戶透過我們的解決方案獲得的價值非常強大,即使鎢的價格上漲,他們繼續使用鎢也比改用不銹鋼或其他類型的材料更有意義,因為他們從我們的解決方案中獲得的性能將遠遠超過鎢價格帶來的影響。

  • So we don't see a big risk from that. But Angel, to your broader question, as you look at some of the end markets, they are still on the fence. Can things get worse? Yes. Like we know there is a monetary policies, trade policies and things like that. So things can get worse. But overall, we have taken a very balanced approach in terms of what we see from the market and also from price dynamics, and on top of that, overall our share gain initiatives.

    所以我們認為這不會帶來很大的風險。但是 Angel,對於你提出的更廣泛的問題,當你觀察一些終端市場時,你會發現他們仍然猶豫不決。情況還會更糟嗎?是的。我們知道,有貨幣政策、貿易政策等等。所以情況可能會變得更糟。但總的來說,我們採取了非常平衡的方法,既考慮了市場狀況和價格動態,也考慮了我們整體的市場份額提升計劃。

  • Angel Castillo - Analyst

    Angel Castillo - Analyst

  • Very helpful thank you.

    非常感謝,很有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

    Tami Zakaria,摩根大通。

  • Tami Zakaria - Analyst

    Tami Zakaria - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning very nice quarter. I wanted to ask you about the $250 million TAM from engines, large engines, which I thought was very interesting. How much of this $250 million is simply volume? Or does it also include pricing? And I may have missed it, but what share of that $250 million do you realistically expect to gain over the next three years?

    您好,早安,這真是個好地方。我想問您關於引擎(大型引擎)2.5億美元的TAM(總市場規模)的問題,我覺得這很有趣。這2.5億美元中有多少只是交易量?或者它也包含價格資訊嗎?我可能錯過了相關信息,但您預計在未來三年內能從這 2.5 億美元中獲得多少實際份額?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Tami, good question. So first, let me explain that the $250 million that we have carved out to show as a TAM for Power Generation, some of this used to sit within either Energy or Transportation. Now we have carved it out to say, what is it so that we can really focus on that? And then how much is the growth initiative here. At this point, as we pointed out there, if you look at last two, three years, that market has been growing in the high single-digit range, and we are still projecting it to grow at 10% rate for the next few years. So that's how we see it.

    是的,塔米,問得好。首先,讓我解釋一下,我們劃出的 2.5 億美元作為發電領域的 TAM,其中一部分以前屬於能源或運輸領域。現在我們已經把它梳理清楚,要弄清楚它是什麼,這樣我們才能真正專注於此?那麼,這裡的成長計畫規模有多大?正如我們之前指出的,過去兩三年,該市場一直保持著較高的個位數成長率,我們仍然預計未來幾年將以 10% 的速度成長。這就是我們的看法。

  • At this point, of course, the $250 million does include the latest price dynamics in that. But in the bigger picture, it does have -- like the historical trend is there from that perspective. And as far as we are concerned, market share-wise, we don't disclose at this point about that information. However, we are very confident that our solutions and our overall value proposition with application support and custom solutions that we are very well positioned to win in this.

    當然,目前的 2.5 億美元已經包含了最新的價格動態。但從更宏觀的角度來看,確實存在這種趨勢——從這個角度來看,歷史趨勢是存在的。至於市佔率方面,我們目前不予揭露相關資訊。然而,我們非常有信心,憑藉我們的解決方案和整體價值主張,以及應用支援和客製化解決方案,我們完全有能力贏得這場競爭。

  • Tami Zakaria - Analyst

    Tami Zakaria - Analyst

  • Understood. That is very helpful. I wanted to ask you about the Energy end market outlook a bit. I think it improved to mid-single digits from flat, if I'm reading it correctly. What's really driving this improved outlook for Energy? Rig counts is still down. Is it well? So could you just elaborate on that a little bit?

    明白了。那很有幫助。我想請教一下關於能源終端市場前景的一些問題。如果我理解沒錯的話,我認為它從零上升到了個位數中段。真正推動能源前景改善的因素是什麼?鑽井平台數量仍然偏低。你還好嗎?能再詳細解釋一下嗎?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, as you look at that, again, Slide 4, in the bottom half of the page, we are clearly telling you that oil and gas stays about the same, right? It's not getting worse. That's good news. But overall sales, which is in the top half of the page, we are saying it's improving because we have definitely impact of APT-related price increase and also surcharges if applicable. And as you know, a lot of products that is used in oil and gas does have very heavy content or greater content of the raw material.

    是的,你再看看,第 4 張幻燈片,在頁面的下半部分,我們清楚地告訴你,石油和天然氣的價格基本上保持不變,對吧?情況並沒有惡化。這是個好消息。但整體銷售額(位於頁面上半部)正在改善,因為我們肯定受到了 APT 相關價格上漲以及適用附加費的影響。如您所知,石油和天然氣行業使用的許多產品都含有非常高含量的原料。

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • And just to tack on to that, Tami, keep in mind that across our Energy portfolio between both businesses, it's pretty diversified. So beyond having the exposure in oil and gas, which we think of primarily in Infrastructure, Metal Cutting has some exposure there as well. Obviously, we've been talking about the opportunities we have in reciprocating Power Gen and more traditional power gen sources. And as you followed us over the last couple of years, the great position we have in wind power as well.

    塔米,補充一點,請記住,我們兩家公司的能源投資組合相當多元化。因此,除了在石油和天然氣領域(我們主要將其視為基礎設施)有所涉足之外,金屬切割行業也在該領域有一些業務。顯然,我們一直在討論往復式發電和更傳統的發電方式所帶來的機會。正如您在過去兩年裡關注我們的那樣,我們在風能領域也佔據著非常重要的地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Fisher, UBS

    瑞銀集團 Steven Fisher

  • Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst

    Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning and congrats on the quarter. Just to come back to the share gain dynamics a little bit. I know this is something you obviously embedded in your multiyear outlook since 2023. So it's nice to see it coming through. I guess just now that we're starting to see this a little bit more visibly and you started to talk about it more, what visibility do you have to anything else in kind of lined up that could materialize in some program wins over the next couple of quarters?

    謝謝。早安,恭喜你本季取得佳績。讓我們再稍微回到市佔率成長動態的話題上來。我知道這顯然是你從 2023 年起就納入多年規劃的內容。很高興看到它最終得以實現。我想現在我們開始更清楚地看到這一點,你也開始更多地談論它,那麼你認為在接下來的幾個季度裡,還有哪些其他計劃可能會轉化為一些專案勝利呢?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, again, good question, Steven. Let me start by first addressing some of the higher growth end markets that we see right now from Aerospace and Defense, we have had success in that for the last two, three years. Actually, we have talked about it all the way back in the Investor Day. And we have a good pipeline of projects that we continue to work on. Then when it comes to Power Generation, we already talked about a little bit. So that also has good pipeline.

    是的,史蒂文,你問得好。首先,我想談談我們目前在航空航太和國防領域看到的一些高成長終端市場,在過去的兩三年裡,我們在這個領域取得了成功。事實上,早在投資者日我們就討論過這個問題了。我們還有一系列優質的項目正在推進中。至於發電方面,我們之前已經簡單談過了。所以它也擁有良好的管道系統。

  • When it comes to Transportation, we will position ourselves very well as the transportation industry was going through quite a bit of dynamic shift in terms of the powertrain. And we have solutions which will support whether a customer launches new internal combustion engine or hybrid or plug-in hybrid or battery-only electric vehicle, we have good solutions, and we have very good strong application support for that. So well positioned on that.

    在交通運輸領域,我們將佔據非常有利的地位,因為交通運輸業在動力系統方面正經歷著相當大的動態變化。無論客戶推出的是新型內燃機汽車、混合動力汽車、插電式混合動力汽車還是純電動車,我們都有相應的解決方案,並且我們擁有非常強大的應用支援。在這方面,他們佔據了有利位置。

  • And in parallel, we continue to work on Earthworks, as you saw some of the project wins we reported in Q1. And finally, coming to General Engineering, our strong relationships with our channel partner and really working together to do what's best for our end customers have also bode well for us, and we'll continue to work on all of these five end markets.

    同時,我們也在繼續進行土方工程,正如您在第一季報告的一些專案中所看到的那樣。最後,就通用工程而言,我們與通路合作夥伴建立了牢固的關係,並真正攜手合作,為我們的最終客戶提供最佳服務,這對我們來說也是個好兆頭,我們將繼續在所有這五個終端市場開展工作。

  • Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst

    Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst

  • That's really helpful. And then I guess just on the tungsten price, can you just talk about how much of that top line benefit and margin dynamic you saw in Q1 relative to what might still be ahead? What could you still see there in Q2? And then are you expecting to see things in balance between your -- what you're passing along and what you're experiencing by, say, Q3?

    這真的很有幫助。那麼,就鎢價而言,您能否談談您在第一季看到的營收成長和利潤率動態與未來可能出現的情況相比如何?第二季還能在那裡看到什麼?那麼,你是否期望到第三季度,你所傳遞的訊息和你所經歷的訊息之間能夠達到平衡?

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Yeah, if we think about that phenomes, so we saw a modest amount of tailwind, I would say, Steve, in the first quarter, right? And then what you're going to see here as we go into Q2 -- and in Q2, we'll see a little bit of ramp-up there. Price will go up.

    是的,如果我們考慮一下這些現象,那麼我們看到了一些順風,我想說,史蒂夫,在第一季度,對吧?然後,隨著我們進入第二季度,您將會看到——在第二季度,我們將看到一些增長。價格將會上漲。

  • We'll get a little bit of tailwind from that. We did see a -- we saw a little bit of advanced buying here in Q1, call that low single digits that might be flopped between Q1 and Q2 from a volume perspective. And that's part of what's animating, I'll say, our volume outlook for Q2.

    我們會因此獲得一些助力。我們確實看到——我們在第一季看到了一些提前購買的跡象,數量只有個位數,從成交量來看,第一季和第二季之間可能會反轉。而這正是我們預測第二季銷售成長的部分原因。

  • But as you think about Q3, Q3, we should see a pretty significant step-up in price/raw. If tungsten prices were to stick around where they are currently, we probably have our strongest EPS quarter in Q3 as we get into Q4, get into basically price or raw neutrality at this point in time.

    但展望第三季度,我們應該會看到原物料價格出現相當大的上漲。如果鎢價維持在目前的水平,那麼第三季度可能是我們每股盈餘表現最好的一個季度,而到了第四季度,價格或原物料價格基本上會趨於中性。

  • And as we've talked about on prior calls, we tend to -- what flows through the P&L tends to lag the market by about two quarters. If we were to see increases in tungsten prices throughout this quarter, that would tell us that, that period of favorable price or raw would continue more into the fourth quarter. Obviously, if we were to see some of that tungsten price roll off, we would start seeing some of that fall through in Q4 as well. But right now, our outlook assumes stable pricing for the balance of the year from a tungsten perspective.

    正如我們在先前的電話會議中討論過的,損益表中的資金流動往往比市場滯後約兩個季度。如果本季鎢價持續上漲,那就表示有利的原物料價格時期將持續到第四季。顯然,如果我們看到鎢價出現下跌,我們也會在第四季看到鎢價出現下跌。但就目前而言,我們認為鎢的價格在今年剩餘時間內將保持穩定。

  • Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst

    Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst

  • Fantastic Thank you.

    太棒了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    史蒂夫·巴格爾,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks. Good morning.

    嘿,謝謝。早安.

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Morning.

    早晨。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Going back to data center, you said some of that TAM used to sit in Energy or Transportation. So what is the incremental machining opportunity you see from data center? And can you frame up, does it add single-digit millions of revenue, double-digit millions? How are you thinking about that?

    回到資料中心的話題,您提到過,部分潛在市場規模以前屬於能源或運輸領域。那麼,您認為資料中心能帶來哪些增量加工機會呢?你能估算一下,它能增加幾千萬美元的收入,還是幾千萬美元的收入?你對此有何看法?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Steve, it's definitely built into that $250 million. At this point, over the last few years, we have seen that in the $100 million range, and then we're raising it to a 10% CAGR.

    是的,史蒂夫,這肯定包含在那2.5億美元裡了。過去幾年,我們看到這一數字達到了 1 億美元左右,然後我們將其提高到 10% 的複合年增長率。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. And then, Sanjay, going back to your comment on some higher expectations for General Engineering. I think everybody is looking for the turn there. So is your outlook based on expectations for improvement just due to how long this downturn has been? Or is it customers saying they want to restock? Or are they seeing actual demand pick up that they're either seeing it or they're planning for it? Can you just frame up that comment?

    知道了。好的。然後,Sanjay,回到你之前關於對通用工程提出更高期望的評論。我想大家都在找轉彎點。所以,你對前景的預期只是基於這次經濟低迷持續時間較長而產生的?還是顧客表示他們想要補貨?或者他們是否看到了實際的需求成長,以至於他們要么已經看到了這種增長,要么正在為此做準備?你能把那則評論改成文字嗎?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, sure. Steve, when it comes to General Engineering, I think at this point, by region, I'll comment a little bit. In US and Americas in general, we saw a slight improvement. And by the way, you'll hear the word slight quite a bit here just because we are on the fence.

    當然可以。史蒂夫,關於通用工程,我想現在我只能按地區做一些評論了。在美國和整個美洲地區,我們看到情況略有改善。順便說一句,你在這裡會經常聽到“輕微”這個詞,因為我們還在猶豫不決。

  • I can tell you that even if you look at our outlook, the way we have framed it, overall volume for the full year, we are saying at midpoint is 1%. So that gives you the idea that we're right on the fence, a slight bit of improvement in IPI will help us, and that's what we have built because that's what we have seen from external projection perspective.

    我可以告訴你,即使你看看我們的展望,按照我們目前的預期,全年總銷量中位數我們預測為 1%。所以這讓你明白我們正處於兩難的境地,IPI 稍有提高就能幫助我們,而這正是我們努力的方向,因為我們從外部預測的角度來看待這個問題。

  • In recent months, we have seen some improvement in Americas. EMEA, in Q1, we saw, but the projection for the rest of the year is more flattish. And in China, we have seen positive projection, slight bit of positive projection.

    近幾個月來,美洲的情況有所改善。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,我們在第一季看到了成長,但預計今年剩餘時間的成長將較為平緩。在中國,我們看到了正面的預測,雖然只是稍微正面的預測。

  • Steve Barger - Analyst

    Steve Barger - Analyst

  • Understood thank you for that clarification.

    明白了,謝謝你的解釋。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Dankert, Loop.

    克里斯·丹克特,Loop。

  • Christopher Dankert - Analyst

    Christopher Dankert - Analyst

  • Hey, morning, thanks for taking the questions. Yeah, I guess just to circle back to the earlier question, can you kind of help frame for us what the assumed price/cost impact actually is in the guide? Are we assuming dollar neutrality for the year? Is it dollar positive margin? Can you just kind of walk us through what's actually assumed in your guide from a price/cost perspective here?

    早安,謝謝你回答問題。是的,我想回到先前的問題,能否幫我們解釋一下指南中假設的價格/成本影響究竟是什麼?我們是否假設今年美元匯率維持中立?美元利潤是正的嗎?您能否從價格/成本的角度,簡要說明您的指南中實際假設了哪些內容?

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Yeah, so I would say for the full year, there will be positive price/raw, right? And you just kind of have to look through where the volume is because, again, volume at this point in time on a full year basis, as Sanjay just talked about, it's up 1%, right, at the midpoint of the guide, right? In addition to that, I would just point out to you that think about some of the comments we had last quarter in terms of some of the tailwinds we had in the prior year that are just not repeating here this year.

    是的,所以我認為全年價格/原材料都會是正的,對吧?你只需要看看成交量在哪裡,因為,正如桑傑剛才所說,就全年而言,目前的成交量增長了 1%,對吧,這是指導方針的中點,對吧?除此之外,我還想指出,請考慮我們上個季度的一些評論,以及去年我們遇到的一些順風因素,這些因素今年並沒有重現。

  • So when we just think about that overall profitability and EPS walk, yes, we're going to have a very modest amount of positive volume, not quite frankly, enough to write home about from a leverage perspective. We will have some benefits, obviously, from the restructuring coming through.

    所以,當我們考慮整體獲利能力和每股盈餘成長時,是的,我們將會有非常適度的正成長,坦白說,從槓桿角度來看,還不足以值得大書特書。很顯然,重組將為我們帶來一些好處。

  • We're going to have significant amounts of cost inflation here coming through in the business, whether that relates to tungsten tariff costs as well as, I would say, the normal salary inflation that comes about in addition to some of the headwinds that we've got in, in terms of $15 million that we talked about in the prior quarter in terms of net tornado benefits that occurred in the prior year and some additional tax credits that came through from a tungsten perspective as well as about a $5 million pension headwind.

    我們將面臨大量的成本上漲,這不僅包括鎢關稅成本,還包括正常的工資上漲,以及我們面臨的一些不利因素,例如上一季度提到的 1500 萬美元的龍捲風淨收益(該收益來自上一年),以及從鎢的角度來看的一些額外稅收抵免,還有大約 500 萬美元的養老金支出。

  • So we'll see that positive price raw here really in Q3. And as we just talked about previously, when we get out to Q4, we'll really get to a more neutral basis.

    所以我們將在第三季真正看到價格上漲的趨勢。正如我們之前討論過的,到了第四季度,我們將真正達到一個更中立的基礎。

  • Christopher Dankert - Analyst

    Christopher Dankert - Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then as we're thinking about those restructuring savings, any additional color either in terms of the ratability there or maybe just even how to think about what the key programs are inside that restructuring savings?

    好的。好的。那很有幫助。那麼,當我們考慮這些重組節省時,對於這些節省的分配方式,或者僅僅是如何考慮重組節省中的關鍵項目,還有什麼其他細節可以補充嗎?

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Yeah, I'd say it's pretty ratable throughout the year, maybe with a little bit of a trail off in Q4 as we start lapping some stuff.

    是的,我覺得它全年的表現都相當穩定,可能在第四季會稍微下滑一點,因為我們開始跑一些圈速了。

  • In terms of what's in that program, we've done some shifting of resources that what's been able to unlock some cost as well as in the last year, talked about the closure of two facilities, one here in the U.S. and the consolidation of two locations in Spain that are driving that.

    就該計劃的內容而言,我們已經進行了一些資源轉移,這在一定程度上降低了成本。此外,在過去一年中,我們還討論了關閉兩家工廠,一家在美國,以及合併西班牙的兩個地點,這些都是推動這一進程的因素。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, we are on track for the $35 million that we have projected for the year.

    是的,我們正朝著今年預計的3500萬美元目標穩步前進。

  • Christopher Dankert - Analyst

    Christopher Dankert - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks so much.

    是啊,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Hey, I just wanted, good morning. I just wanted to try and dial in again a little bit on the sort of EPS guide change and the moving parts there. So I think the guide midpoint went up by sort of $0.40 or so. And maybe $0.05 of that is the lower tax rate. So are we right in thinking that sort of the price/cost part of that $0.40 is kind of more than half of it? So maybe, I don't know, $0.20, $0.30 tailwind from price/cost versus the prior guide?

    您好,早安。嘿,我只是想說,早安。我只是想再仔細研究一下 EPS 指南的變化以及其中的活動部件。所以我覺得指南的中點價上漲了大約 0.40 美元。其中或許有 0.05 美元是較低的稅率。所以我們是否可以這樣理解:這 0.40 美元中的價格/成本部分超過了一半?所以,或許,我不知道,價格/成本方面會比之前的指南帶來 0.20 美元或 0.30 美元的利好?

  • And then it sounds like a lot of that comes in the third fiscal quarter. And as we look ahead, simplistically, if the tungsten price stays where it is today, is it sort of neutral after this year? Or does it sort of flip to a kind of headwind as your COGS catch up? Just trying to understand that dynamic, please.

    而且聽起來很多收入都來自第三財季。展望未來,簡單來說,如果鎢價維持目前的水平,那麼今年之後它的價格走勢是否會趨於中性?或是隨著成本的增加,情況會不會變成逆風呢?我只是想弄清楚這種動態關係,謝謝。

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Yeah, Good questions, Julian. I would say the best way to think about the change in the outlook is you got outlook to outlook, there's really two primary changes. One is volume and the second one is price, right? And so there is some incremental volume in there in terms of the change, and you can probably call that in EPS terms, $0.20-ish, $0.30 -- $0.25, $0.30, right? I think that tax number is probably a little bit hot. So it's probably closer to about $0.03 of tax, ETR to ETR, when you do the math, Julian.

    嗯,問得好,朱利安。我認為理解 Outlook 變化的最佳方式是,從 Outlook 到 Outlook,實際上有兩個主要變化。一個是成交量,另一個是價格,對吧?因此,就變化而言,其中包含了一些增量,以每股收益計算,大概是 0.20 美元、0.30 美元左右——0.25 美元、0.30 美元,對吧?我覺得那個稅號可能有點高。所以,朱利安,你算一下就知道了,稅額可能接近 0.03 美元(ETR 對 ETR)。

  • And then so you'll have some remainder in that. And included in that is price/raw favorability that's in the year, but you've also got some muting of that is some higher variable comp, okay? That's also nestled in there.

    這樣一來,你就會得到一些餘數。其中也包括今年的價格/原始偏好,但同時也有一些較高的可變比較因素會削弱這種偏好,懂嗎?它也藏在那裡。

  • So as you think about Q4, and I'm going to switch now to talking about this sequentially because I think on a year-over-year basis becomes a little more difficult. Q4, effectively, what's in the outlook is neutrality. And unless there's a change in tungsten, right, we would expect to be price/raw neutral on that piece going forward from that as you think about the following fiscal year, right?

    所以,在考慮第四季的時候,我現在要按時間順序來談論這個問題,因為我認為按年同比來看會有點困難。第四季度,整體前景持中立態度。除非鎢的價格發生變化,否則考慮到下一個財政年度,我們預計該零件的價格/原材料價格將保持中性,對吧?

  • As we think about that from a headwind perspective, yes, there is some favorability this year that we will have on price/raw that won't repeat next year, right? And when you do that from a year-over-year perspective, I appreciate that would be seen as a headwind. But if you think of it sequentially, we'll be on the same basis.

    從逆風的角度來看,是的,今年我們在價格/原材料方面確實有一些有利因素,而這些因素明年就不會再出現了,對吧?如果從同比角度來看,我認為這會被視為一種不利因素。但如果你按順序考慮,我們就會站在同一個基礎上。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • That's helpful. So you've got sort of that -- as you said, it's sort of $0.20 to $0.30 price/cost tailwind this year. Is that right?

    那很有幫助。所以,正如你所說,今年的價格/成本方面有0.20到0.30美元的順風。是這樣嗎?

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Yeah, I go back to the math I just kind of gave you there, Julian, so.

    是的,朱利安,我得回到我剛才跟你說的那些數學計算上來。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So yeah, I think, Julian, keep that in mind, as Pat said, that volume, which, again, if you look at prior outlook versus this outlook, has improved by 350 basis points. Price improved by 300 basis points. Average was 4%, now it's 7%. So it gives you an idea that volume is playing a role in EPS. And within the volume, you've got project wins, you've got some improvement in market. And then also, I think those are the two main components of that.

    所以,是的,朱利安,記住這一點,正如帕特所說,成交量,再說一遍,如果你看看之前的展望與目前的展望,就會發現成交量已經提高了 350 個基點。價格上漲了300個基點。平均值以前是 4%,現在是 7%。由此可見,成交量對每股盈餘 (EPS) 有一定影響。而且,在銷售方面,你贏得了項目,市場也取得了一些進步。而且,我認為這是其中的兩個主要組成部分。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then just my sort of second question would be around just the sort of Power Gen exposure, and you have that helpful kind of Slide 5 that you've touched on a couple of times already. Just wanted to understand what is your revenue sort of exposure as pertains to that Slide 5 material? What was your dollar revenue in the last 12 months or fiscal '25? Or just trying to understand what your sort of jumping off point is today in revenue as we look ahead to that TAM expansion.

    那很有幫助。那麼我的第二個問題是關於發電方面的曝光,您在幻燈片 5 中已經多次提到過,這很有幫助。我想了解一下,就投影片5的內容而言,您的收入風險敞口是多少?過去 12 個月或 2025 財年,您的美元收入是多少?或者只是想了解一下,在我們展望未來市場規模擴張的時候,你們目前的營收起點是多少。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Julian, we are not disclosing that deeper detail. But let me just tell you the information you have, if you look at the Metal Cutting slide, you will see that Metal Cutting Energy had improved by 12%, whereas Infrastructure Energy had a decline. This is Q1 by 5%. That will tell you, you can do some math in that, and you can see that some of the increase in Metal Cutting Energy revenue is driven by some of those projects.

    是的,朱利安,我們不會透露更深層的細節。但是,讓我告訴你你目前掌握的信息,如果你看一下金屬切削幻燈片,你會發現金屬切削能源提高了 12%,而基礎設施能源卻下降了。這是第一季的5%。這樣就能說明問題了,你可以做一些計算,你會發現金屬切割能源公司收入的成長部分是由這些專案推動的。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • That's great thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

    喬·里奇,高盛集團。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi Joe.

    嗨,喬。

  • Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

    Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

  • Hey guys, good morning. Yeah, nice to see the strong start to the year. Just a couple of quick ones. I know we've talked a lot about tungsten. It's interesting to me the -- look, tungsten prices were up materially this past quarter. And Pat, you kind of talked through the dynamics.

    嘿,各位,早安。是的,很高興看到今年開局強勁。就簡單問幾個問題。我知道我們已經談了很多關於鎢的話題。令我感興趣的是——你看,鎢價在上個季度大幅上漲。帕特,你剛才也談到了其中的動態。

  • It typically takes a couple of quarters. I was just wondering, has anything changed from a timing standpoint in your ability to pass through price earlier than you have historically? Just seems like the dynamics have gotten perhaps a little bit better on the margin there. Just any thoughts around that would be helpful.

    通常需要投幣兩枚硬幣。我只是想問一下,從時機角度來看,您在提早傳導價格方面的能力是否有所改變?看起來,邊緣地帶的動態似乎有所改善。任何想法都將不勝感激。

  • Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

    Patrick Watson - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance

  • Yeah. I think two things to think about there as it relates to pricing. We've got two semi-unique circumstances going on simultaneously here. One is where tungsten is sitting at today is a historical high, right? And then secondly, I would say we've got the tariff surcharges that are in place, which are a unique event for us and many other companies in terms of how they've had to deal with some of the tariff costs. So I think the situation is pretty unique that we're in at the moment.

    是的。我認為在定價方面有兩點需要考慮。這裡同時出現了兩種較為特殊的情況。一是鎢價目前處於歷史高位,對吧?其次,我想說的是,我們目前還有關稅附加費的問題,這對我們和許多其他公司來說都是一個獨特的問題,因為他們必須應付一些關稅成本。所以我認為我們目前所處的情況相當特殊。

  • I do credit the commercial teams. They have gotten out there and been aggressive where they can be and been smart about where we can make sure we're raising prices to cover the costs. And that's never an easy conversation with the client. No client ever really wants to have their price raised. But as Sanjay talked about previously, we remain very confident in our ability to go out there and get the cost and make sure we're covering for it.

    我確實要讚揚商業團隊。他們積極主動地拓展業務,並在力所能及的範圍內採取了積極的策略,同時在能夠提高價格以彌補成本的領域也展現出了智慧。與客戶進行這樣的對話從來都不是一件容易的事。沒有哪個客戶真正希望價格上漲。但正如桑傑之前所說,我們仍然非常有信心了解成本並確保我們能夠支付這筆費用。

  • We've had a track record of doing so. And I think some of the commercial capabilities that as an organization that we've developed over the last couple of years, not only do they help us in terms of going out and winning market share, but they also help us in terms of making sure we're accurately pricing for the product that we have and the value we're creating for the customer.

    我們一直以來都有這樣做的紀錄。我認為,在過去幾年裡,我們作為一個組織所發展的一些商業能力,不僅有助於我們走出去贏得市場份額,而且還有助於我們確保為我們擁有的產品和我們為客戶創造的價值進行準確的定價。

  • Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

    Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And I guess just maybe following up on that tariff discussion. To the extent that you're putting surcharges through, how are you guys thinking about a situation in which tariffs are potentially rolled back? What does that ultimately mean for kind of like the price/cost equation that you have baked into the guide for the year?

    知道了。那很有幫助。我想,或許可以就關稅問題做個後續討論。既然你們要徵收附加費,那麼如果關稅有可能被下調,你們是如何考慮的?這最終對您在年度指南中設定的價格/成本等式意味著什麼?

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, sure. Joe, I think first of all, tariff situation, as you guys know, has been very dynamic, and we have, taken in a very, broad sets of actions, starting with like production moves, supply chain optimization, and where necessary, we did implement surcharges.

    當然可以。喬,我認為首先,正如你們所知,關稅狀況一直非常多變,我們已經採取了一系列非常廣泛的措施,包括調整生產、優化供應鏈,並在必要時實施附加費。

  • And as things have changed, those surcharges also have been very dynamic from our side. For example, if when the tariff, for products going from US to Canada, that was taken down, we took the surcharges out. So we're very, quickly adopting, and doing what we need to do to recoup the, cost that we need to, but at the same time being very competitive in the market. So we'll continue to do that and in the long-term, let's say some of the tariffs that we get to a point where they become permanent, then we will, make those changes in the permanent prices. So that's the way we're looking at it.

    隨著情況的變化,我們這邊的附加費也隨之有了很大的變化。例如,如果從美國到加拿大的產品的關稅被取消,我們就取消了附加費。所以我們正在非常迅速地適應並採取必要的措施來收回我們需要的成本,同時在市場上保持強大的競爭力。所以我們會繼續這樣做,從長遠來看,假設某些關稅發展到一定程度成為永久性的,那麼我們將對永久價格進行相應的調整。這就是我們看待這個問題的方式。

  • Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

    Joseph Ritchie - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Sanjay Chowbey for closing remarks.

    謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給桑傑·喬貝先生,請他作閉幕致詞。

  • Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sanjay Chowbey - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. As always, we appreciate your interest and support. Please don't hesitate to reach out to Mike if you have any questions. Have a great day. Thank you.

    謝謝接線生,也謝謝各位今天參加電話會議。一如既往,我們感謝您的關注與支持。如有任何疑問,請隨時與Mike聯絡。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

  • Thank you. A replay of this event will be available approximately 1 hour after its conclusion. To access the replay, you may dial toll-free within the United States (877) 344-7529. Outside of the United States, you may dial (412) 317-0088. You will be prompted to enter the conference ID of 7492050 then the pound or hash symbol. You will be asked to record your name and company.

    謝謝。本次活動的錄影將在活動結束後約1小時提供回放。若要收聽重播,您可以撥打美國境內的免費電話 (877) 344-7529。在美國境外,您可以撥打 (412) 317-0088。系統會提示您輸入會議 ID 7492050,然後輸入井號或井號符號。您將被要求記錄您的姓名和公司名稱。