Kennametal Inc (KMT) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to Kennametal's first quarter and fiscal 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Pici, Vice President of Investor Relations.

早安.我謹歡迎大家參加肯納金屬第一季和 2025 財年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Michael Pici。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Kennametal's first quarter fiscal 2025 results. This morning, we issued our earnings press release and posted our presentation slides on our website. We will be referring to that slide deck throughout today's call. I'm Michael Pici, Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，接線生。歡迎大家，感謝您與我們一起回顧肯納金屬 2025 財年第一季的業績。今天早上，我們發布了收益新聞稿，並在我們的網站上發布了簡報幻燈片。我們將在今天的電話會議中提到該幻燈片。我是麥可‧皮奇 (Michael Pici)，投資者關係副總裁。

Joining me on the call today are Sanjay Chowbey, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Pat Watson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After Sanjay and Pat's prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. At this time, I would like to direct your attention to our forward-looking disclosure statement.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是總裁兼執行長桑傑‧喬貝 (Sanjay Chowbey)；副總裁兼財務長 Pat Watson。在桑杰和帕特準備好發言後，我們將開通提問熱線。此時，我想請您注意我們的前瞻性揭露聲明。

Today's discussion contains comments that constitute forward-looking statements and as such involve a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results, performance, or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such statements. These risk factors and uncertainties are detailed in Kennametal's SEC filings.

今天的討論包含構成前瞻性陳述的評論，因此涉及許多假設、風險和不確定性，這些假設、風險和不確定性可能導致公司的實際結果、業績或成就與此類陳述中表達或暗示的結果、業績或成就有重大差異。這些風險因素和不確定性在肯納金屬向 SEC 提交的文件中有詳細說明。

In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. Reconciliations to GAAP financial measures that we believe are most directly comparable can be found at the back of the slide deck and on our form 8-K on our website.

此外，我們將在今天的電話會議上討論非公認會計準則財務指標。我們認為最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表可以在投影片的後面和我們網站上的 8-K 表格中找到。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay.

然後，我會將電話轉給 Sanjay。

Thank you, Mike. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'll start the call today with some end market commentary followed by a review of the quarter and examples of the industry-leading innovative solutions we are bringing to market. Then Pat will cover the quarterly financial reserves as well as the fiscal '25 outlook. Finally, I'll make some summary comments and then open the call for questions.

謝謝你，麥克。早安，感謝您加入我們。我將在今天的電話會議中首先發表一些終端市場評論，然後回顧本季度以及我們向市場推出的行業領先的創新解決方案的示例。然後帕特將介紹季度財務儲備以及 25 財年展望。最後，我將做一些總結性評論，然後開始提問。

Let me start on slide 3 by saying that from an industry and macroeconomic perspective, fiscal '25 has started out pretty uneven similar to what we saw at the end of fiscal '24. During our fiscal first quarter, market conditions worsened further in EMEA and that is impacting several of our end markets.

讓我從投影片 3 開始說，從產業和宏觀經濟的角度來看，25 財年的開局非常不平衡，類似於我們在 24 財年末看到的情況。在我們的第一財季，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的市場狀況進一步惡化，這正在影響我們的幾個終端市場。

In addition, industrial production in the US has continued to be soft. We also saw two major labor disputes, one in the shipping industry which was resolved quickly, and the second one impacting aircraft production, which was resolved recently.

此外，美國工業生產持續疲軟。我們也看到兩起重大勞資糾紛，一件是航運業的，很快就解決了，另一件是影響飛機生產的，最近才解決。

Despite these broader industry and market challenges, we remain focused on things that we can control. We continue to make progress on initiatives to drive above-market growth including innovative product launches and demonstrating our products and solutions at several key industry events. I will elaborate more on these in a moment.

儘管有這些更廣泛的行業和市場挑戰，我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情。我們繼續在推動高於市場成長的舉措方面取得進展，包括創新產品發布以及在多個關鍵行業活動中展示我們的產品和解決方案。我稍後將詳細闡述這些內容。

In addition, we remain focused on primary working capital as shown by the strong free cash flow that we'll deliver this quarter. Now, let's turn to the results. For the quarter, sales decreased 2% year over year. At the segment level, infrastructure increased 1% organically while metal cutting was down 4%.

此外，我們仍然關注主要營運資本，正如我們本季將提供的強勁自由現金流所顯示的那樣。現在，讓我們看看結果。該季度銷售額較去年同期下降 2%。在細分市場層面，基礎設施有機成長 1%，而金屬切割下降 4%。

On a constant currency basis, Asia Pacific sales increased 2%. However, EMEA declined 1% and the Americas declined 2%. Moving to our end markets, aerospace and defense grew 13%. Energy grew 2%. Our other markets experienced declines. Transportation was down 2%. General engineering declined 3% and earthworks declined 6%.

以固定匯率計算，亞太地區銷售額成長 2%。然而，歐洲、中東和非洲地區卻下降了 1%，美洲地區卻下降了 2%。轉向我們的終端市場，航空航太和國防成長了 13%。能源成長 2%。我們的其他市場也經歷了下滑。交通運輸下降了 2%。一般工程下降 3%，土方工程下降 6%。

I want to reflect for a moment on our results versus the expectations we outlined last quarter. Our results were at the lower end of our expectations. This was mostly due to challenging market conditions in general engineering and transportation in the EMEA and Americas regions within metal cutting.

我想回顧一下我們的業績與我們上季度概述的預期。我們的結果低於我們的預期。這主要是由於歐洲、中東和非洲和美洲地區金屬切削領域的一般工程和運輸市場條件充滿挑戰。

Now, turning to profitability for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.3% compared to 16.6% in the prior year. Adjusted EPS decreased to $0.29 compared to $0.41 in the prior year quarter. Cash from operating activities year to date was $46 million compared to $26 million in the prior year period.

現在，轉向本季的獲利能力。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 14.3%，去年同期為 16.6%。調整後每股收益從去年同期的 0.41 美元下降至 0.29 美元。年初至今，經營活動產生的現金為 4,600 萬美元，而去年同期為 2,600 萬美元。

Free operating cash flow year to date was $21 million, up significantly from negative $3 million in the prior year. And we continued our share repurchase program with $15 million worth of shares bought back during the quarter. Reflected in our EPS and as noted last call was a portion of the investment in third-party expertise to execute some of the initiatives related to our $100 million cost improvement plan.

今年迄今的自由經營現金流為 2,100 萬美元，較前一年的負 300 萬美元大幅增加。我們繼續實施股票回購計劃，在本季度回購了價值 1500 萬美元的股票。正如上次電話會議所指出的，我們的每股盈餘中反映了對第三方專業知識的部分投資，以執行與我們 1 億美元成本改進計劃相關的一些舉措。

The EPS results also include our participation in trade shows that take place every other year including IMTS in the US and AMB in Germany. We are encouraged by the level of interest during those shows. Our [booth] was very active and we are a strong lead generation from both events. Finally, we remain focused on generating strong cash flow and implementing our personal initiatives to improve our overall performance.

EPS 績效也包括我們參加每隔一年舉辦一次的貿易展，包括美國的 IMTS 和德國的 AMB。我們對這些演出中的興趣程度感到鼓舞。我們的[展位]非常活躍，我們是這兩次活動的強大潛在客戶。最後，我們仍然專注於產生強勁的現金流並實施我們的個人措施以提高我們的整體業績。

Now turning to slide 4. I want to provide an update on the growth benchmarking that we introduced last year at Investor Day. As you may recall, we provided a comparison of our metal cutting growth relative to publicly traded peers and data provided by industry trade groups in certain countries.

現在轉向投影片 4。您可能還記得，我們​​提供了我們的金屬切割成長相對於公開交易同行的比較以及某些國家的行業貿易團體提供的數據。

First on the left. Once again this quarter, metal cutting's performance, while negative on a constant currency basis, matched the publicly traded (inaudible). Over the last couple of years, as you can see here, we have been demonstrating our ability to compete and win.

第一個在左邊。本季度，金屬切削的業績再次與公開交易的業績相匹配，儘管以固定匯率計算為負值（聽不清楚）。在過去的幾年裡，正如您在這裡所看到的，我們一直在展示我們的競爭和獲勝能力。

On the right, you can see that we have performed relatively well in these key countries. In the US, we delivered 3% growth very modestly below the overall market. This is mostly driven by the timing of special projects in aerospace and defense and transportation. In the countries listed, we continue to outpace or match market growth.

右邊你可以看到我們在這些重點國家表現得更好。在美國，我們實現了 3% 的成長，略低於整體市場。這主要是由航空航太、國防和運輸領域的特殊項目的時間所推動的。在所列國家/地區，我們繼續超越或追趕市場成長。

For example, in Germany, while the broader market there declined significantly, we achieved flat growth. Our performance was due in large part to our growth initiatives. Also of note, the broader peer group may have been impacted by lower export sales. Finally, let me say that our innovative solutions, best-in-class customer service, application engineering support, and commercial excellence continue to position us for above-market growth.

例如，在德國，雖然整體市場大幅下滑，但我們實現了持平成長。我們的業績在很大程度上歸功於我們的成長計劃。另外值得注意的是，更廣泛的同業群體可能受到出口銷售下降的影響。最後，我要說的是，我們的創新解決方案、一流的客戶服務、應用工程支援和卓越的商業能力繼續使我們能夠實現高於市場的成長。

Now, speaking of our innovative solutions on slides 5 and 6, I would like to highlight examples of how innovation, as a competitive advantage, continues to deliver enhanced product offerings to our customers. First, on slide 5 is our new PrimePoint longwall mining pick from our infrastructure portfolio.

現在，在談到投影片 5 和 6 上的創新解決方案時，我想重點介紹一些範例，說明創新如何作為一種競爭優勢，繼續為我們的客戶提供增強的產品。首先，投影片 5 是我們從基礎設施產品組合中挑選的新 PrimePoint 長壁採礦產品。

Notably, this pick is equipped with a polycrystalline diamond tip which enables operators to run longer. This innovative mining solution also provides reliability in the harshest and most aggressive conditions and is ideal for coal, salt, and other soft mineral applications.

值得注意的是，該鎬配備了多晶鑽石尖端，使操作員能夠運行更長時間。這種創新的採礦解決方案還可以在最惡劣和最具侵蝕性的條件下提供可靠性，是煤炭、鹽和其他軟礦物應用的理想選擇。

This is one of three mining products launched this quarter. It is a great example of unique solutions that support customers who are operating in challenging environments.

這是本季推出的三款挖礦產品之一。這是為在充滿挑戰的環境中運作的客戶提供支援的獨特解決方案的一個很好的例子。

On slide 6, we have our TopSwiss micromachining solution from our metal cutting portfolio. These high-precision turning tools focus on serving the micromachining needs of customers in the medical, aerospace, and transportation markets. And this product suite has ultra sharp cutting edges for longer tool life and superior surface finishes for use in titanium and stainless-steel applications.

在投影片 6 中，我們展示了金屬切削產品組合中的 TopSwiss 微加工解決方案。這些高精度車削刀具專注於滿足醫療、航空航太和運輸市場客戶的微加工需求。該產品套件具有超鋒利的切割刃，可延長刀具壽命，並具有卓越的表面光潔度，適用於鈦和不銹鋼應用。

This launch is a great example of the progress we have made executing the strategy we discussed during Investor Day last year. We identify these applications, specifically medical and aerospace, to help us fuel above-market growth.

這次發布是我們在執行去年投資者日討論的策略方面取得進展的一個很好的例子。我們確定這些應用，特別是醫療和航空航天，以幫助我們推動高於市場的成長。

Now, let me turn the call over to Pat who will review the first-quarter financial performance and the outlook.

現在，讓我把電話轉給帕特，他將回顧第一季的財務表現和前景。

Thank you, Sanjay, and good morning, everyone. I will begin on slide 7 with a review of Q1 operating results. The quarter's results show that we continue to execute our initiatives in the face of challenging market conditions. Sales were down 2% year over year, with an organic decline of 2% and unfavorable currency exchange of 1% partially offset by favorable workdays of 1%.

謝謝桑傑，大家早安。我將從幻燈片 7 開始回顧第一季的營運表現。本季的業績表明，面對充滿挑戰的市場條件，我們繼續執行我們的舉措。銷售額年減 2%，其中有機下降 2%，不利的貨幣兌換導致 1% 的不利工作日被 1% 的有利工作日部分抵消。

Sales this quarter were at the lower end of the expectations we provided last quarter. Relative to those expectations, we experience slower market conditions, most notably in the Americas and EMEA in our general engineering, transportation, and earthworks end markets.

本季的銷售額低於我們上季度提供的預期的下限。與這些預期相比，我們的市場狀況放緩，尤其是在美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲的通用工程、運輸和土方工程終端市場。

Energy was a bit stronger than we had anticipated due to project volume. Year over year, we experience market headwinds in most end markets and regions with the exceptions of aerospace and defense and energy end markets in the Asia Pacific region. I will provide more color when reviewing the segment performance in a moment.

由於專案量，能源比我們預期的要強一些。年復一年，除了亞太地區的航空航太、國防和能源終端市場外，我們在大多數終端市場和地區都經歷市場逆風。我將在稍後回顧細分市場表現時提供更多資訊。

Adjusted EBITDA and operating margins were 14.3% and 7.6% respectively versus 16.6% and 9.9% in the prior-year quarter. During the quarter, we realized approximately $5 million in savings from the previously announced restructuring program. This action has successfully delivered annualized run rate, pretax savings of approximately $35 million.

調整後 EBITDA 和營業利潤率分別為 14.3% 和 7.6%，去年同期為 16.6% 和 9.9%。本季度，我們透過先前宣布的重組計劃節省了約 500 萬美元。這項行動已成功實現年化運作率，稅前節省約 3,500 萬美元。

Lastly, foreign exchange headwinds from the strong US dollar were approximately 1% this quarter. The adjusted effective tax rate increased year over year to 25.1%, primarily driven by discrete items recognized in the prior year quarter, an unfavorable geographical mix partially offset by a benefit of $1 million from the favorable resolution of a tax dispute in India.

最後，本季強勢美元帶來的外匯阻力約為 1%。調整後的有效稅率同比上升至 25.1%，這主要是由於上一季確認的離散項目推動的，不利的地域組合被印度稅務糾紛有利解決方案帶來的 100 萬美元收益部分抵消。

Adjusted earnings per share were $0.29 in the quarter versus EPS of $0.41 in the prior-year period. The main drivers of our EPS performance are highlighted on the bridge on slide 8. The year-over-year effect of operations this quarter was negative, reflecting lower sales and production volumes, higher wage and general inflation, and the impact of temporary plant shutdowns.

本季調整後每股收益為 0.29 美元，去年同期每股收益為 0.41 美元。我們每股收益表現的主要驅動因素在幻燈片 8 的橋上突出顯示。

These shutdowns were for routine maintenance and process improvements within the infrastructure segment and were partially offset by favorable timing of raw material costs and incremental restructuring benefits.

這些停工是為了基礎設施領域的日常維護和流程改進，但被原材料成本的有利時機和增量重組效益所部分抵消。

We also received a net benefit of $0.04 from insurance proceeds related to the tornado that damaged our Rogers facility in the fourth quarter of FY24. You can also see the effects of the tax rate and pension on EPS with taxes and pension costs of negative $0.02. Other reflects lower share count which contributed $0.01.

我們還從與 2024 財年第四季度損壞我們羅傑斯設施的龍捲風相關的保險收益中獲得了 0.04 美元的淨收益。您還可以看到稅率和退休金對 EPS 的影響，其中稅收和退休金成本為負 0.02 美元。其他反映了貢獻 0.01 美元的股份數量減少。

Slides 9 and 10 detail the performance of our segments this quarter starting with metal cutting. Reported metal cutting sales were down 4% compared to the prior-year quarter with a 4% organic sales decline and an unfavorable foreign currency effect of 2%, partially offset by favorable workdays of 2%.

投影片 9 和 10 詳細介紹了本季我們從金屬切削開始的細分市場的表現。報告的金屬切削銷售額與去年同期相比下降了 4%，其中有機銷售額下降了 4%，不利的外匯影響為 2%，但被有利的工作日 2% 部分抵消。

By region, on a constant currency basis, Asia Pacific grew 3%; the Americas declined 1%; and EMEA declined 6%. Asia Pacific's growth was primarily driven by the transportation end market and reflects modest improvement in China and continued strength in India.

按地區劃分，以固定匯率計算，亞太地區成長 3%；美洲下降 1%；歐洲、中東和非洲地區下降了 6%。亞太地區的成長主要由運輸終端市場推動，反映了中國的適度改善和印度的持續強勁。

America's year-over-year decline this quarter was due to slower conditions in the transportation and general engineering end markets, partially offset by the execution of our growth initiatives in aerospace and defense.

美國本季同比下降是由於運輸和通用工程終端市場狀況放緩，但我們在航空航天和國防領域執行的成長計劃部分抵消了這一影響。

EMEA's year-over-year performance reflects weakness in general engineering and transportation end markets most notably, in Germany.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區的年比表現反映了通用工程和運輸終端市場的疲軟，尤其是德國。

Looking at sales by end market, aerospace and defense grew 5% year over year as our strategic initiatives continue to drive results. These initiatives are partially offset by OEM production challenges. Energy was flat with strength in EMEA from project work, offset by the Asia Pacific region as we continue to experience a slower market and project delays.

從終端市場來看，隨著我們的策略性舉措持續推動業績成長，航空航太和國防領域的銷售額年增了 5%。這些舉措被 OEM 生產挑戰部分抵銷。能源市場持平，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的專案工作表現強勁，但由於我們持續經歷市場放緩和專案延誤，亞太地區的需求有所抵消。

Transportation declined 2% year over year due to EV and hybrid project winds in the prior year and an overall slowdown in EMEA and the Americas partially offset by Asia Pacific project orders. And lastly, general engineering declined 4% year over year, with modest growth in Asia Pacific offset by lower production activity in EMEA and order timing in the Americas.

由於去年電動車和混合動力項目風潮以及歐洲、中東和非洲和美洲的整體放緩，交通運輸年減 2%，但被亞太地區項目訂單部分抵銷。最後，通用工程業務年減 4%，其中亞太地區的小幅成長被 EMEA 生產活動的減少和美洲訂單時間的減少所抵消。

Metal cutting adjusted operating margin of 8.2% decreased 300 basis points year over year due to lower sales and production volumes, higher wages, and general inflation and foreign exchange of $2 million partially offset by lower raw material costs, restructuring savings of $4 million and price.

金屬切割調整後營業利潤率為 8.2%，年減 300 個基點，原因是銷量和產量下降、工資上漲以及總體通膨和外匯 200 萬美元，部分被原材料成本下降、重組節省 400 萬美元和價格所抵消。

Turning to slide 10 for infrastructure. Reported infrastructure sales were flat year over year with organic sales growth of 1%, offset by unfavorable business days of 1%. Regionally, on a constant currency basis, EMEA sales increased by 12%; Asia Pacific increased 1%; and Americas sales declined by 3%.

轉向幻燈片 10 的基礎設施。報告的基礎設施銷售額同比持平，有機銷售額增長 1%，但被 1% 的不利工作日所抵消。從地區來看，以固定匯率計算，歐洲、中東和非洲地區銷售額成長了 12%；亞太地區成長1%；美洲銷售額下降了 3%。

EMEA growth was primarily driven by order timing in aerospace and defense and general engineering. Growth in Asia Pacific reflects strength in general engineering, partially offset by slower demand in China which impacted earthworks. The Americas' decline was due to lower mining activity in earthworks and project order timing in general engineering partially offset by defense growth.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區的成長主要是由航空航太、國防和通用工程領域的訂單時間所推動的。亞太地區的成長反映了通用工程的實力，但部分被中國需求放緩影響土方工程所抵消。美洲的下降是由於土方工程採礦活動減少以及一般工程項目訂單時間的減少，部分被國防成長所抵消。

Looking at sales by end market on a constant currency basis, aerospace and defense increased 42% from our continued focus on growth initiatives in EMEA and the Americas. Energy increased 2% mainly in the Americas driven by project timing, partially offset by lower US land-based rig count.

從以固定匯率計算的終端市場銷售額來看，由於我們持續專注於歐洲、中東和非洲和美洲的成長計劃，航空航太和國防領域的銷售額成長了 42%。能源成長了 2%，主要是在美洲，受專案時機的推動，但部分被美國陸上鑽機數量減少所抵消。

General engineering was flat due to temporary plant shutdowns in the Americas offset by order timing in EMEA and Asia. And lastly, earthworks declined 6% due to customer mine consolidation and lower mining activity in the Americas and Asia Pacific and prior-year orders.

由於美洲工廠暫時關閉，歐洲、中東和非洲和亞洲的訂單時間抵消了整體工程業績持平。最後，由於客戶礦山整合以及美洲和亞太地區採礦活動以及去年訂單的減少，土方工程量下降了 6%。

Adjusted operating margin declined 110 basis points year over year to 6.9%, primarily due to the following factors: the previously mentioned plant shutdowns from maintenance and process improvements, higher wages, and general inflation. These factors are partially offset by net insurance proceeds of $4 million, favorable price raw material timing, restructuring savings, and higher sales volume.

調整後營業利潤率年減 110 個基點至 6.9%，主要歸因於以下因素：前面提到的工廠因維護和工藝改進而關閉、工資上漲以及總體通膨。這些因素被 400 萬美元的淨保險收益、有利的原材料價格時機、重組節省和更高的銷售所部分抵消。

Now turning to slide 11 to review our free operating cash flow and balance sheet. Net cash flow from operating activities was $46 million compared to $26 million in the prior-year period. The change in net cash flow from operating activities was driven primarily by working capital changes and the $5 million received from the favorable resolution of a tax dispute in India, partially offset by a lower net income compared to the prior-year period.

現在轉向投影片 11，回顧我們的自由營運現金流和資產負債表。經營活動產生的現金流量淨額為 4,600 萬美元，而去年同期為 2,600 萬美元。經營活動淨現金流量的變化主要是由於營運資本變動以及印度稅務糾紛得到有利解決而獲得的 500 萬美元，但部分被淨利潤較上年同期下降所抵消。

Our free operating cash flow increased to $21 million from negative $3 million in the prior year. Primary working capital this quarter was down from the prior year. The company continues to focus on optimizing inventory levels and remains focused on driving improved working capital. On a dollar basis year over year, primary working capital decreased to $624 million. And on a percentage of sales basis, primary working capital decreased to 31.8%.

我們的自由營運現金流從前一年的負 300 萬美元增加到 2,100 萬美元。本季主要營運資本較上年下降。該公司繼續專注於優化庫存水平，並繼續致力於改善營運資本。以美元計算，主要營運資金年減至 6.24 億美元。以銷售額百分比計算，主要營運資金下降至 31.8%。

Net capital expenditures decreased to $25 million compared to $29 million in the prior-year quarter. In total, we returned $31 million to shareholders through our share repurchase and dividend programs. We repurchased 600,000 shares for $15 million in Q1 under our new $200 million authorization.

淨資本支出從去年同期的 2,900 萬美元減少至 2,500 萬美元。透過股票回購和股利計劃，我們總共向股東返還了 3,100 萬美元。根據新的 2 億美元授權，我們在第一季以 1,500 萬美元回購了 60 萬股股票。

And as we have every quarter since becoming a public company over 50 years ago, we paid a dividend to our shareholders. Our commitment to returning cash to shareholders reflects our confidence in our ability to execute our strategy to drive growth and margin improvement. We continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet and debt maturity profile with no near-term refunding requirements.

自 50 多年前成為上市公司以來，我們每季都會向股東支付股息。我們向股東返還現金的承諾反映了我們對執行推動成長和利潤改善策略的能力的信心。我們繼續保持健康的資產負債表和債務到期狀況，沒有短期退款要求。

The full balance sheet can be found on slide 17 in the appendix. Turning to slide 12 regarding our second quarter outlook. We expect Q2 sales to be between $480 million to $500 million, with volume ranging from negative 5% to negative 1%, price realization of approximately 2%, and a neutral effect from foreign exchange.

完整的資產負債表可以在附錄的投影片 17 找到。請參閱投影片 12，以了解我們對第二季的展望。我們預計第二季銷售額將在 4.8 億至 5 億美元之間，成交量在負 5% 到負 1% 之間，價格實現約為 2%，外匯影響呈中性。

Let me share some detail on the sales assumptions impacting the Q2 outlook. Our Q2 range at the midpoint reflects growth that is generally in line with our historical norms. On a year-over-year basis, aerospace and defense growth continues, albeit moderately, as North American OEM production disrupted by the strike will impact the second quarter.

讓我分享一些有關影響第二季前景的銷售假設的細節。我們第二季的中點範圍反映出成長總體上符合我們的歷史標準。與去年同期相比，航空航太和國防業務繼續成長，儘管增幅不大，因為北美 OEM 生產因罷工而中斷，這將影響第二季度。

Energy is anticipated to be flat. General engineering declined slightly but similar to Q1 levels. Transportation is expected to climb mainly due to prior-year project winds and lower volumes in EMEA, and earthworks is anticipated to be flat.

能源預計將持平。通用工程略有下降，但與第一季的水平相似。預計運輸量將增加，主要是由於上一年的專案風力和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的運輸量減少，而土方工程預計將持平。

Non-cash pension expense is expected to have a negative impact of approximately $1 million on a pretax basis. Interest expense is assumed to be approximately $7 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 27.5%. Lastly, we expected adjusted EPS in the range of $0.20 to $0.30. The EPS range reflects the year-over-year change in the Q2 tax rate, which at the midpoint is approximately a $0.13 headwind to EPS.

非現金退休金支出預計將產生約 100 萬美元的稅前負面影響。假設利息支出約為 700 萬美元，有效稅率約為 27.5%。最後，我們預計調整後每股收益將在 0.20 美元至 0.30 美元之間。 EPS 範圍反映了第二季度稅率的同比變化，中間值對 EPS 的影響約為 0.13 美元。

Now on slide 13 regarding our full-year outlook. We continue to expect FY25 sales to be between $2 billion and $2.1 billion, with volume ranging from negative 3% to positive 2%, net price realization of approximately 2%, and we anticipate an approximate 1% year-over-year headwind from foreign exchange.

現在幻燈片 13 介紹了我們的全年展望。我們仍預期2025 財年銷售額將在20 億美元至21 億美元之間，成交量從負3% 到正2% 不等，淨價實現約為2%，我們預計來自外國的同比阻力約為1%交換。

Our EPS outlook remains $1.30 to $1.70 and free operating cash flow remains at greater than 125% of adjusted net income. The other assumptions embedded in our outlook also remain unchanged.

我們的 EPS 展望仍為 1.30 至 1.70 美元，自由經營現金流仍高於調整後淨利潤的 125%。我們展望中的其他假設也保持不變。

As Sanjay noted in his prepared remarks, there have been some developments over the last quarter that have placed some additional pressure on our end markets, namely the strike in aerospace and defense and macro challenges in EMEA. To get to the top end of our sales outlook would require a quick rebound in aircraft production from the just-resolved strike as well as a turnaround in EMEA.

正如桑傑在準備好的演講中指出的那樣，上個季度出現的一些事態發展給我們的終端市場帶來了一些額外的壓力，即航空航天和國防領域的罷工以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區的宏觀挑戰。為了達到我們銷售前景的上限，需要飛機產量從剛剛解決的罷工中迅速反彈，以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區的扭虧為盈。

From a macro perspective in the US, we would need industrial production growth to resume. These types of events would give us sequential sales growth a bit above our recent seasonality. The midpoint of our outlook reflects seasonality in line with our historical averages. As such, we expect year over year, aerospace and defense to have moderate growth, transportation to increase slightly, general engineering to be flat, and earthworks and energy to decline slightly.

從美國的宏觀角度來看，我們需要恢復工業生產成長。這些類型的事件將使我們的銷售額連續成長略高於最近的季節性成長。我們的前景中點反映了與我們的歷史平均值一致的季節性。因此，我們預計航空航太和國防將溫和成長，交通運輸小幅成長，通用工程持平，土方工程和能源小幅下降。

And with that, I'll turn it back over to Sanjay.

這樣，我會將其轉回給 Sanjay。

Thank you, Pat. Turning to slide 14. Let me summarize. Overall, although macro conditions remain challenging in the short term, the global megatrends that drive market growth over the long term remain intact. As always, we remain committed to driving growth and managing costs in line with market conditions.

謝謝你，帕特。轉到投影片 14。整體而言，儘管短期內宏觀環境仍充滿挑戰，但推動市場長期成長的全球大趨勢仍然完好無損。一如既往，我們仍然致力於根據市場狀況推動成長並管理成本。

And in all cases, we will be guided by our value creation pillars of growth, continuous improvement, and portfolio optimization while strengthening our foundation so that we can deliver long-term shareholder value.

在所有情況下，我們都將以成長、持續改善和投資組合優化等價值創造支柱為指導，同時鞏固我們的基礎，以便我們能夠實現長期股東價值。

And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

那麼，接線員，請開通提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Steven Fisher, UBS.

（操作員說明）Steven Fisher，UBS。

Thanks. Good morning. Wondering if you can just help us frame the margin assumptions you have for the second quarter sequentially compared to the first quarter, excluding the benefit from the insurance proceeds? I think typically, seasonally, they should be lower. But I'm just curious, kind of what you're embedding in there in your assumptions and maybe you could just kind of bridge the key items for us?

謝謝。早安.想知道您是否可以幫助我們制定第二季與第一季相比的連續利潤率假設，不包括保險收益的收益？我認為通常情況下，季節性的，它們應該更低。但我只是很好奇，你在假設中嵌入了什麼，也許你可以為我們架起關鍵項目的橋樑？

Yes, certainly. So I would say we think going Q1 to Q2, more or less flattish from a margin perspective. A couple of things to think about. There's certainly -- going from Q1 to Q2, pull out the benefits from the insurance proceeds we had in Q1; non-operating item but obviously, we've got a little bit of benefit from the resolution of that Indian tax dispute in there as well.

是的，當然。所以我想說，從利潤率的角度來看，我們認為第一季到第二季或多或少持平。有幾點要考慮。當然，從第一季到第二季度，我們從第一季的保險收益中提取收益；非經營性項目，但顯然，我們也從印度稅務糾紛的解決中獲得了一些好處。

We'll see a little bit of pickup because as we talked about some of those plant shutdowns, that will go away and some of the expense we had around some trade shows goes away as well. On the other side of that, we'll see a modest tick up in compensation as compensation normally goes up for us here on October 1; that's generally when a lot of our employees on a global basis receive their annual salary adjustments. So those are kind of the major puts and takes. But overall, flat margins.

我們會看到一些回升，因為當我們談到一些工廠關閉時，這種情況將會消失，我們在一些貿易展上的一些費用也會消失。另一方面，我們會看到薪資小幅上漲，因為我們的薪資通常會在 10 月 1 日上漲；通常，我們在全球範圍內的許多員工都會收到年度薪資調整。因此，這些是主要的看跌期權和承受期權。但整體而言，利潤率持平。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then, the guidance does imply a nice recovery in organic growth in the second half. Just talk about where you have the most confidence in that recovery or it's perhaps the bias at this point as in any other information that we should be kind of gearing towards the lower end of the range?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，該指引確實意味著下半年有機成長將出現良好復甦。只是談談您對復甦最有信心的地方，或者可能是目前的偏見，就像我們應該朝著範圍的下限調整的任何其他信息一樣？

Yes, Steven, Sanjay here. First of all, as we said last quarter also that we assumed slight recovery in the second half of the calendar year '25 in the industrial production and also in the oil rig counts. And as you might have seen, the oil rig count is down right now to 565.

是的，史蒂文，桑傑在這裡。首先，正如我們上季度所說，我們假設工業生產和石油鑽井平台數量將在 25 年下半年略有復甦。正如您可能已經看到的，石油鑽井平台數量目前已減少至 565 個。

As of right now, the [sphere's] outlook is that it's going to stabilize around 590, 600. And then when you start to look at the auto production, that also assumes slight improvement globally, especially like in US and China. EEMA, at this point, we continue to see some pressure on auto production and auto sales but -- and then you start to move into oil and gas.

截至目前，[領域]的前景是它將穩定在 590、600 左右。 EEMA，目前，我們繼續看到汽車生產和汽車銷售面臨一些壓力，但 - 然後你開始進入石油和天然氣領域。

I mean, sorry, the earthworks -- relatively stable in that. In aerospace and defense, at this point, our assumption includes slight improvement. We know that there were some issues, a slight improvement in that also. It depends on how much supply constraints they can resolve. But that's the way we are looking at it. Slight improvement in the second half of the year. Long term, obviously, much better outlook for aerospace and defense.

我的意思是，抱歉，土方工程——相對穩定。在航空航太和國防領域，目前我們的假設略有改進。我們知道存在一些問題，也略有改善。這取決於他們能解決多少供應限制。但這就是我們看待它的方式。下半年略有好轉。從長遠來看，航空航太和國防的前景顯然要好得多。

Terrific. That's very helpful. I appreciate it.

了不起。這非常有幫助。我很感激。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning. Maybe just the first question, if you could elaborate a little bit on China, and I suppose broader Asia Pacific. You had decent low-single-digit growth there year on year in the first quarter.

嗨，早安。也許只是第一個問題，您能否詳細說明一下中國，我想還有更廣泛的亞太地區。第一季同比出現了不錯的低個位數成長。

But we have very mixed things on industrial demand in China versus, say, construction where the news is uniformly more negative. So maybe help us understand kind of what you're assuming for the balance of the year in terms of Asia Pac or China revenue trends, please?

但我們對中國的工業需求和建築業需求的看法非常複雜，而建築業的消息普遍更為負面。那麼，也許可以幫助我們了解您對今年剩餘時間亞太地區或中國收入趨勢的假設，好嗎？

Julian, first of all, let me start with China. As you said, construction and mining continue to be under pressure. And beyond that, we have seen stable and slightly improving markets in other major end markets that we serve.

朱利安，首先讓我從中國開始。正如您所說，建築業和採礦業繼續面臨壓力。除此之外，我們在我們服務的其他主要終端市場中看到了穩定且略有改善的市場。

India continues to be stable and improving or not only improving, but it has been strong, I should say. So overall, APAC, the way I will describe here, despite pressure on construction and mining, we think it's going to be stable and slightly improving.

我應該說，印度繼續保持穩定並不斷進步，或者說不僅是進步，而且一直很強大。因此，總的來說，亞太地區，正如我在這裡描述的那樣，儘管建築和採礦業面臨壓力，但我們認為它將保持穩定並略有改善。

That's helpful. Thanks very much. And then just wanted to circle back, when we think about that, I suppose we'll look half on half, but you have a fairly typical second-half increase in operating margins, total company in the back half versus the first half normally. Pretty similar, I suppose this year seems to be dialed in.

這很有幫助。非常感謝。然後我想回過頭來，當我們想到這一點時，我想我們會看到一半對一半，但下半年營業利潤率出現了相當典型的增長，後半部分的公司總數與通常情況下的上半年相比。非常相似，我想今年似乎已經撥通了。

So any color you could provide as we think about kind of the weighting of that margin ramp, maybe third versus fourth quarter? Anything to bear in mind in that sense? And understanding that I think second-quarter margins are kind of flattish sequentially. So we know that base and then you have kind of a couple of points of back half step up, I think.

因此，當我們考慮利潤率上升的權重時，您可以提供任何顏色，也許是第三季與第四季？從這個意義上講，有什麼需要記住的嗎？我認為第二季的利潤率是環比持平。所以我們知道這個基礎，然後我認為你有一些後半步的點。

Yeah, a couple of things I'd reflect on. What drives a lot of that margin performance in the second half is just the seasonal uptick in volume. So that is the primary driver of what's going on from a margin perspective. So as you think about what the normal cadence is, Q3, Q4 -- Q4, typically, is our higher margin -- quarter just again, based on margins.

是的，有幾件事我會反思。推動下半年利潤率表現的主要原因只是銷售量的季節性上升。因此，從利潤率的角度來看，這是當前情況的主要驅動因素。因此，當您考慮正常節奏時，第三季、第四季——通常情況下，第四季是我們更高的利潤率——根據利潤率又是一個季度。

The only other thing I would layer in on that is as we continue to work on operational excellence and productivity in those things, that stuff will ramp as we move throughout the year as well. And then lastly, and just in terms of lapping type of restructuring things again, this is more of a year over year, but you'll see more of that restructuring benefit come in the first half and you're going to see it come in the second half again on a year-over-year basis.

我要強調的另一件事是，隨著我們繼續致力於這些方面的卓越營運和生產力，這些內容也會隨著我們全年的發展而不斷提高。最後，就重組的重疊類型而言，這更像是一年比一年，但你會看到更多的重組效益出現在上半年，你會看到它在下半年再次同比增長。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Steve Barger，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Sorry about that. Yeah, Pat, starting with slide 8, that bridge. You showed the negative impact of lower production volumes. Working capital as a percentage of sales looks pretty flat over the last few years and you've had negative volume growth over the past year.

對此感到抱歉。是的，帕特，從第 8 張幻燈片開始，即那座橋。您展示了產量下降的負面影響。營運資本佔銷售額的百分比在過去幾年中看起來相當平穩，並且在過去一年中銷量出現了負增長。

Can you just talk about where you are now for inventory relative to demand? Do you need to continue to take production days out or how are you positioning relative to the potential back-half improvement that Sanjay talked about?

能談談目前庫存相對於需求的情況嗎？您是否需要繼續減少生產時間，或者您對桑傑談到的後半區潛在改進有何定位？

Yeah, I mean, overall, I would just reflect on the general trajectory of what we're trying to do in particular with inventory, Steve, is we're trying to take inventory out of the system. And so, I would say simply over the long run, that implies that production would be slightly below where demand is, right? You saw inventory come up from Q4. I think there's a little bit of FX in there, I think about $11 million sequentially.

是的，我的意思是，總的來說，我只想反思我們正在嘗試做的事情的總體軌跡，特別是在庫存方面，史蒂夫，我們正在嘗試將庫存從系統中剔除。因此，我想說，從長遠來看，這意味著產量將略低於需求，對嗎？您看到庫存從第四季度開始增加。我認為其中有一點外匯，我認為連續 1100 萬美元左右。

So after you kind of pull that out, I would say pretty normal seasonal adjustment in terms of inventory in Q1. Our objective here really is to get primary working capital as a percent of sales down to about 30% as our outlook is by the end of the fiscal year. That will require us again, as part of our long-run strategy here, to kind of constrain production in a reasonable way to get that down and get the benefit of higher sales volumes over time and on lower inventories.

因此，在你把它拿出來之後，我想說就第一季的庫存而言，這是非常正常的季節性調整。我們的目標實際上是讓主要營運資金佔銷售額的百分比降至 30% 左右，因為我們的預期是到本財政年度結束。作為我們長期策略的一部分，這將再次要求我們以合理的方式限制產量，以降低產量，並隨著時間的推移和較低的庫存而獲得更高的銷售量。

Let me just add one more thing, Steve on that. We have been making -- as part of the overall continuous improvement, a lot of basic improvements in our sales operations planning and the supply chain network, like what we move from where in the world, and all that. And we've been making a sustainable progress on that. And that will continue. So to Pat's point, we will very closely monitor markets, but at the same time, we expect that we will continue to improve our overall working capital.

讓我再補充一件事，史蒂夫。作為整體持續改進的一部分，我們一直在對我們的銷售營運規劃和供應鏈網路進行許多基本改進，例如我們從世界哪個地方搬來的東西等等。我們一直在這方面取得可持續的進展。這種情況還會持續下去。因此，就帕特的觀點而言，我們將非常密切地監控市場，但同時，我們預計將繼續改善我們的整體營運資金。

Understood. Thanks. And then on that same slide, is there an opportunity around the temporary shutdowns for maintenance and process improvement? Meaning that you can use those shutdowns and just a generally softer environment right now to move some product lines and accelerate plant closures to lock in structural cost savings for when we do see the markets improve?

明白了。謝謝。然後在同一張投影片上，是否有機會暫時關閉以進行維護和流程改進？這意味著您可以利用這些停工和目前總體較為疲軟的環境來轉移一些產品線並加速工廠關閉，以在我們確實看到市場改善時鎖定結構性成本節約？

Yes, Steve. I think that we have mentioned there about the temporary plant shutdown. These are relatively short, targeted at very specific assets, preventive maintenance and overall process improvements. That's what we have done here. These are not long enough to make major changes in terms of footprint.

是的，史蒂夫。我想我們已經提到了工廠臨時關閉的問題。這些相對較短，針對非常具體的資產、預防性維護和整體流程改善。這就是我們在這裡所做的。這些還不夠長，無法在佔地面積方面做出重大改變。

We are working on footprint on a separate initiative and we will come back to all of you at the appropriate time when we are ready to discuss more of that. But as we have said at the Investor Day, those actions will be a little bit more back-half loaded of the -- our timeline horizon of that.

我們正在一項單獨的計劃中研究足跡，當我們準備好討論更多內容時，我們將在適當的時候與大家聯繫。但正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，這些行動將在我們的時間表範圍內發揮更多作用。

Let me just add that, Sanjay. I think over time, Steve, and we did this, I think two years ago in the December quarter. I think our ability from a sales and operations planning perspective is as market conditions change and as we think about what we need to do to be responsive to the customers, being able to more finally dial in where we can have production and take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves in terms of again, managing production in a thoughtful manner.

讓我補充一點，桑傑。我想隨著時間的推移，史蒂夫，我們做到了這一點，我想是兩年前的 12 月季度。我認為，從銷售和營運規劃的角度來看，我們的能力是隨著市場條件的變化，當我們思考我們需要做什麼來響應客戶時，能夠最終調整我們可以進行生產並利用機會的地方當他們再次展現自己時，以深思熟慮的方式管理生產。

Appreciate the detail. Thanks.

欣賞細節。謝謝。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to talk about, maybe put a finer point on kind of the near-term trends. What are you seeing kind of September, October versus what you saw in the first full fiscal 1Q general kind of trends across that markets, please?

你好。感謝您提出我的問題。我只是想談談，或許可以對近期趨勢進行更詳細的闡述。您對 9 月、10 月的看法與您在第一個完整財年第一季的市場整體趨勢中看到的情況有何不同？

Yeah, Angel, overall, industrial production and oil and gas, as I mentioned earlier, these are going to stay relatively stable or flattish. As Pat talked about the Q2 outlook, where we see continued pressure right now, which we already have built in our outlook is transportation industry and market in Europe.

是的，天使，總體而言，工業生產以及石油和天然氣，正如我之前提到的，這些將保持相對穩定或持平。正如帕特談到第二季度前景時，我們現在看到持續的壓力，我們已經在歐洲運輸業和市場的前景中建立了這種壓力。

And then mining construction also continue to stay soft, in our opinion, in the second quarter. But overall, like I said, globally, our view is that things will be more in the stable range.

我們認為，第二季採礦業建設也持續保持疲軟。但總體而言，正如我所說，從全球範圍來看，我們的觀點是情況將更加穩定。

And maybe switching over to price/cost. Just can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of both tungsten and just general kind of cost inflation? And then your degree of confidence around getting the 2% realization and just broader price/cost thoughts would be helpful.

也許轉向價格/成本。您能談談您在鎢和一般成本通膨方面所看到的情況嗎？然後你對實現 2% 的信心程度以及更廣泛的價格/成本想法將會有所幫助。

So we'll start with Tungsten. So tungsten has been in a range of about, let's call it [3.05% to 3.25%]. So it's been relatively steady here over the past couple of quarters. As we've talked about in the past, that we generally get the visibility about two quarters out. So I would say, as we think about price/cost in particular in the infrastructure segment, we've got reasonable stability here. I would not anticipate a significant price/cost tailwind or headwind at this point in time again, looking out this quarter and then the following quarter.

所以我們將從鎢開始。所以鎢的含量範圍約為[3.05%至3.25%]。因此，過去幾個季度這裡的情況相對穩定。正如我們過去所討論的，我們通常會在兩個季度左右獲得可見性。所以我想說，當我們考慮價格/成本時，特別是在基礎設施領域，我們在這裡獲得了合理的穩定性。展望本季和下一個季度，我預計此時不會再次出現重大的價格/成本順風或逆風。

Overall, I think from an inflation perspective, there are main pockets where there is some additional price being pushed on by the supply base. But I would say in general, we've seen this trend of continued moderation in terms of inflation rates pretty much across the Board. And so, that's kind of what we're looking at there.

總體而言，我認為從通貨膨脹的角度來看，供應基礎推動了一些主要領域的額外價格上漲。但我想說的是，總的來說，我們幾乎全面看到了通膨率持續放緩的趨勢。所以，這就是我們正在研究的內容。

Sanjay, do you want to comment anything on the pricing?

Sanjay，您想對定價發表評論嗎？

Yeah, pricing-wise, at this point, we continue to -- we did implement the metal cutting price in July and we had some strategic pricing on this infrastructure side. Our goal is obviously to make sure that we are offsetting inflation on that.

是的，就定價而言，目前我們繼續進行——我們確實在 7 月實施了金屬切割價格，並且我們在基礎設施方面進行了一些戰略定價。我們的目標顯然是確保抵消通貨膨脹。

And Angel, I would like to also go back in your broader question on the market. I didn't talk about aerospace and defense. I want to just give you a little bit more color on it. In the near term, which is Q2 for us, we don't expect major change even though the labor dispute has been resolved. We think some of those improvements will come in the calendar year '25.

安吉爾，我還想回到你關於市場的更廣泛的問題。我沒有談論航空航天和國防。我想給你多一點色彩。短期內，也就是我們的第二季度，即使勞資糾紛已經解決，我們預計不會有重大變化。我們認為其中一些改進將在 25 日曆年實現。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Tami Zakaria, J.P. Morgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much. So my first question is historically, how does fed rate cuts impact you? Do you see a pickup in demand maybe at a one or two quarters lag? What are you hearing from customers now that finally rates have started to come down? Is there a sense of optimism amongst customers?

嗨，早安。太感謝了。所以我的第一個問題是，從歷史上看，聯準會降息對你有何影響？您是否認為需求回升可能會落後一、兩個季度？既然費率終於開始下降，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？顧客中有樂觀情緒嗎？

So any thoughts on how you're thinking about this rate cut environment transitioning hopefully to a lower rate scenario?

那麼，您對如何看待這種降息環境有望過渡到較低利率的情況有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah, I think overall, lower rates will be constructive. I think, as always, the case with monetary policy, that lag period is variable, right? And so, I would think if you look back historically, it's probably several quarters before that really starts turning around. Obviously, the feds -- we're not going to take action here in the near term on that.

是的，我認為總體而言，降低利率將是有建設性的。我認為，與往常一樣，貨幣政策的滯後期是可變的，對吧？因此，我認為如果你回顧歷史，可能需要幾個季度的時間才能真正開始扭轉局面。顯然，聯邦政府短期內不會就此採取行動。

I think from an overall customer perspective, there's a customer belief that's out there as well. The rate cuts are constructive to the long term, growth potential. That being said, if we balance that against current period indicators like PMI here in the US, you really haven't seen that turn from a customer sentiment yet.

我認為從整體客戶的角度來看，客戶的信念也是存在的。降息對長期成長潛力具有建設性。話雖這麼說，如果我們將其與美國 PMI 等當前時期指標進行平衡，您實際上還沒有看到客戶情緒出現這種轉變。

Got it. That's helpful. And my other question is, just to clarify, can you tell us what -- how the model and the business days impact for the next -- for the remainder of the year for the next three quarters?

知道了。這很有幫助。我的另一個問題是，為了澄清，您能否告訴我們該模型和工作日對未來三個季度的剩餘時間有何影響？

Yeah, in Q2, there's basically about a half a day, -- half a day, up year over year. I think Q3 is about a half a day in the other direction down and about -- I think it's about a half a day again. In Q4, it should be down. So it's kind of a [wash] for the most part.

是的，在第二季度，基本上有半天左右，半天，逐年增加。我認為第三季度在另一個方向向下大約是半天——我認為又是大約半天。第四季應該會下降。所以這在很大程度上是一種[清洗]。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Chris Dankert, Loop Capital Markets.

Chris Dankert，Loop 資本市場。

Hey, morning. Thanks for taking the questions. First off, a quick housekeeping item and apologies if I missed it. But did you delineate what the [realized] restructuring savings were in the quarter?

嘿，早安。感謝您提出問題。首先，一個快速的家務用品，如果我錯過了，我深表歉意。但您是否描述了本季[已實現]重組節省的金額？

Yes, it's $5 million discretely in the quarter year over year. Since the inception of the program, run rates is $35 million on an annual basis. So if you think about it in the quarter from baseline, it's $35 million, about over [$4 million].

是的，該季度年增 500 萬美元。自該計劃啟動以來，每年的運行費用為 3500 萬美元。因此，如果您從基線考慮本季的情況，您會發現該金額為 3500 萬美元，大約超過 [400 萬美元]。

Okay, perfect, perfect. Thanks for that. And I guess just to drill down a little bit more on the margin at metal cutting. I guess, it's a pretty hefty decremental -- it seems like it's [2x] typical. I think typically, you call it 40% decremental on volumes despite some of the cost actions. Maybe can you just help us understand? Is it mixed? What else is going on under the hood there in terms of margins for metal cutting here?

好吧，完美，完美。謝謝你。我想只是為了在金屬切割方面進一步鑽研一點。我想，這是一個相當大的遞減——看起來它是 [2x] 典型的。我認為通常情況下，儘管採取了一些成本措施，但您仍將其稱為銷量減少 40%。也許你能幫助我們理解嗎？是混合的嗎？就金屬切割的利潤而言，幕後還發生了什麼事？

Yeah. Well, first off, when we think about margin decrementals from metal cutting, we talk about average being in the mid-40s there. And I've always said metal cutting is north of that, right? And so, metal cutting will tend to have higher incremental decrementals than the average of the business. As we think about what the performance of the segment was here in the first quarter, big reduction in volume. That's coming through both on the sales side and on a production basis as well, right?

是的。好吧，首先，當我們考慮金屬切削的利潤減少時，我們談論的平均值是 40 多歲。我一直說金屬切削是最重要的，對吧？因此，金屬切削的增量減量往往高於業務的平均水準。當我們思考第一季該部門的表現時，銷量大幅減少。這在銷售方面和生產方面都是如此，對嗎？

And on top of that, you've got a couple of other things. Obviously, you've got the restructuring benefits coming through in the quarter. However, on the other side of that, and we talked about this going into the quarter, we would see some temporary costs flow through Q1 as well that would kind of suppress the margin a little bit here on some of the trade shows we went to and the like.

除此之外，您還有其他一些事情。顯然，您已經在本季獲得了重組收益。然而，另一方面，我們在進入本季度時談到了這一點，我們也會看到一些臨時成本流經第一季度，這會在我們參加的一些貿易展上稍微抑制利潤率等等。

And so, a couple of cross [currents] there. But the big story is almost always the case in metal cutting is what's going on from a volume perspective.

因此，那裡存在一些交叉[電流]。但在金屬切削領域，最重要的事情幾乎總是從體積的角度來看發生的事情。

I think on top of that, we had one event, a one-time gain last year that we let out last quarter.

我認為最重要的是，我們有一個事件，去年我們在上個季度發布的一次性收益。

Thanks for the detail.

謝謝你的詳細資料。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

Hey, guys, good morning. Really helpful slide on the metal cutting share gains. I guess, in Europe specifically, I guess the question I have is, as you kind of think about hopefully a potential recovery in that end market, do you expect to keep these types of share gains if the market were to recover?

嘿，夥計們，早安。對於金屬切削市場份額的成長確實很有幫助。我想，特別是在歐洲，我想我的問題是，當你想到終端市場的潛在復甦時，如果市場復甦，你是否期望保持這些類型的份額收益？

And then just -- what are you looking at as maybe leading indicators and maybe just focusing on the German market that can maybe give you some confidence once that market starts to turn?

然後，您認為什麼是領先指標，也許只是關注德國市場，一旦市場開始轉變，這些指標可能會給您帶來一些信心？

Yes, Joe, I think as I mentioned earlier based on the IHS data and publicly available information from the OEMs, we think that the near-term pressure will be there. In the meantime, like we also said earlier in the prepared remarks, that our GAAP versus the trade group, it might also be driven by the fact that they would impact the other partner, other parties were impacted by lower export sales.

是的，Joe，我認為正如我之前提到的，根據 IHS 數據和 OEM 的公開信息，我們認為短期壓力將會存在。同時，正如我們之前在準備好的發言中所說，我們的公認會計準則與貿易集團相比，這也可能是由於它們會影響其他合作夥伴這一事實，其他各方受到出口銷售下降的影響。

So I wouldn't say that we will see any major deviation from what we see here. But the market overall is going to be under pressure. And in the meantime, of course, we continue to do things with respect to new project wins as customers are also going through the mix change in terms of -- they were going a little bit strong on electric vehicles. That adjustment is happening where the shift is going to happen a little bit more towards hybrid.

所以我不會說我們會看到與我們在這裡看到的有任何重大偏差。但市場整體將面臨壓力。當然，與此同時，我們繼續在贏得新項目方面開展工作，因為客戶也在經歷組合變化——他們對電動車的態度有點強。這種調整正在發生，其中的轉變將更多地轉向混合動力。

So there's going to be some of those comp issues because of that. But we believe that we are very well-positioned to support our customers, whether they go for [ice] engine or hybrid or battery, we are there to support them. So overall, we will continue to do above-market growth there.

因此，將會出現一些補償問題。但我們相信，我們完全有能力為客戶提供支持，無論他們選擇[冰]引擎、混合動力或電池，我們都會為他們提供支援。因此總體而言，我們將繼續實現高於市場的成長。

Okay, helpful. And then Sanjay, you're going to be my first election question. So post yesterday, how are you thinking about these potential implications for your business? Also with the prospect of potential tariffs on the comp. How does that potentially change your either competitive dynamics here or abroad? Just any thoughts that you have? Broad thoughts on the outcome from yesterday?

好的，有幫助。然後桑傑，你將是我的第一個選舉議題。那麼昨天發帖，您如何看待這些對您的業務的潛在影響？此外還有對公司徵收潛在關稅的前景。這可能會如何改變您在國內外的競爭動態？只是你有什麼想法嗎？對昨天的結果有廣泛的思考嗎？

Yeah, I think we know we have to learn more in coming months to see how the overall policies come out. But what we will expect is that industrial production is going to be one thing that we want to watch to see how that affects because that has the biggest effect on our overall business. With respect to tariffs, I'll let Pat also add his opinion, but we don't -- we are a global business, we do business in all different continents and in a lot of cases, we are making things where we sell.

是的，我認為我們知道我們必須在未來幾個月了解更多信息，以了解整體政策的結果。但我們期望的是，工業生產將成為我們想要觀察的一件事，看看它會如何影響，因為這對我們的整體業務影響最大。關於關稅，我會讓帕特也添加他的意見，但我們不會——我們是一家全球性企業，我們在所有不同的大陸開展業務，在很多情況下，我們在銷售的地方生產產品。

There is not going to be a lot of direct effect on it. But how does it affect overall sentiments? That, we have to watch. And then on the material cost, it might have some impact, but too early for us to tell much detail at this point.

不會對其產生太大的直接影響。但它如何影響整體情緒呢？那，我們必須觀察。然後在材料成本方面，它可能會產生一些影響，但現在我們透露更多細節還為時過早。

Yeah, I would just say -- I would reiterate that, Sanjay, in the sense that from a manufacturing footprint perspective, we're global. We aim to support customers locally with production where we can and so that tends to minimize some of the effect of tariffs on the business. That being said, the big feedback loop there is based on any government policy that affects overall consumer confidence and therefore, industrial production is going to have a feedback loop on us, positive or negative.

是的，我只想說 - 我要重申，桑傑，從製造業足跡的角度來看，我們是全球性的。我們的目標是盡可能為當地客戶提供生產支持，從而盡量減少關稅對業務的影響。話雖如此，大的反饋循環是基於影響整體消費者信心的任何政府政策，因此，工業生產將對我們產生積極或消極的反饋循環。

Okay, guys, thank you.

好的，夥計們，謝謝你們。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back to Sanjay Chowbey for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想請桑傑‧喬貝 (Sanjay Chowbey) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for joining the call today. As always, we appreciate your interest and support. Please don't hesitate to reach out to Mike if you have any questions. Have a great day. Thank you.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天加入通話。一如既往，我們感謝您的關注與支持。如果您有任何疑問，請隨時與麥克聯繫。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

（操作員指示）會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路。