金德摩根 (KMI) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the quarterly earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

下午好，感謝您的收看，歡迎參加季度財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄製。如果您有任何異議，您可以立即斷開連接。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Rich Kinder, Executive Chairman of Kinder Morgan. Sir, you may begin.

現在我很高興將電話轉給金德摩根執行主席里奇金德先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Michelle. Before we begin as usual, I'd like to remind you that KMI's earnings release today on this call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures.

謝謝你，米歇爾。在我們像往常一樣開始之前，我想提醒您，KMI 今天在本次電話會議上發布的收益包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》和 1934 年《證券交易法》所定義的前瞻性陳述，以及某些非 GAAP 財務指標。

Before making any investment decision, we strongly encourage you to read our full disclosures on forward-looking statements and use of non-GAAP financial measures set forth at the end of our earnings release, as well as review our latest filing with the SEC for important material assumptions, expectations, and risk factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated and described in such forward-looking statements.

在做出任何投資決定之前，我們強烈建議您閱讀我們在收益報告末尾列出的關於前瞻性聲明和非 GAAP 財務指標的完整披露，並查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性聲明中預期和描述的結果存在重大差異的重要假設、預期和風險因素。

In previous quarterly calls, I've emphasized the positive attributes of the natural gas storage concentrating primarily on the rapidly growing demand in America. But as we all know, the gas market is international in nature and a great deal of the growth potential for US production is driven by that worldwide increase in demand. So I thought today I will spend a bit of time sharing some thoughts on what's driving that overseas growth.

在先前的季度電話會議中，我強調了天然氣儲存的正面屬性，主要集中在美國快速成長的需求。但眾所周知，天然氣市場本質上是國際性的，美國產量的成長潛力很大程度上是由全球需求的成長所驅動的。所以今天我想花點時間分享一些推動海外成長的想法。

Chief economist of a major oil company recently estimated that global gas demand is expected to increase by 25% over the next 25 years. And I don't believe that that projection is unreasonable and affirms my belief that natural gas will inevitably remain a key source of energy for the long term around the globe. The factors underpinning that growth is pretty easy to understand. Demographers project continued substantial growth in worldwide population over that time period in the range of 2 billion additions by 2050.

一家大型石油公司的首席經濟學家最近估計，未來25年全球天然氣需求預計將增加25%。我認為這種預測是合理的，並堅定了我的信念：天然氣必然會長期成為全球主要能源。支撐這一增長的因素相當容易理解。人口統計學家預測，在此期間世界人口將繼續大幅增長，到 2050 年將增加 20 億。

The great bulk of that increase will occur in the emerging markets of Asia and Africa where the need for energy is particularly acute as large portions of the population within the middle class which drives additional energy consumption. Because there's a lack of local production and an inability to access gas by land-based delivery in most of those nations, it will be LNG which will satisfy the bulk of this additional demand and I think it will grow faster than the overall demand for natural gas.

這一增長絕大部分將發生在亞洲和非洲的新興市場，這些地區的能源需求尤其迫切，因為這些地區的中產階級人口占很大比例，從而推動了額外的能源消費。由於大多數國家缺乏本地生產，也無法透過陸路運輸獲得天然氣，因此液化天然氣將滿足大部分額外需求，我認為其成長速度將快於天然氣的整體需求。

Now, what's the impact of all this international growth on US energy segment? I believe that American exports of LNG will play a critical role in supplying this international LNG demand. The US has been the top global producer of natural gas for 15 consecutive years and the world's top exporter of LNG since 2023.

那麼，所有這些國際成長對美國能源領域有何影響？我相信美國的液化天然氣出口將在滿足國際液化天然氣需求方面發揮關鍵作用。美國已連續15年成為全球最大天然氣生產國，並自2023年起成為全球最大液化天然氣出口國。

I believe the US role becomes even more important in light of recent developments in the Middle East, customers are on the receiving end once security of supply without undue worries about disruptions caused by military actions and this benefits the position of US supply. This makes us confident that a major portion of the LNG required will move through America's rapidly growing liquefaction terminals.

我認為，鑑於中東地區最近的事態發展，美國的角色變得更加重要，客戶一旦獲得供應安全，就不必過度擔心軍事行動造成的中斷，這有利於美國供應的地位。這使我們相信，所需的大部分液化天然氣將透過美國快速成長的液化終端運輸。

Consistent with this view is the recent estimate of S&P Global Commodity Insights that LNG feed gas demand in America will increase by 3.5 Bcf per day this summer compared to summer of 2024, and then it will more than double by 2030. That should be a real positive for Kinder Morgan and as much as we move about 40% of all the feed gas for those facilities.

與此觀點一致的是，標準普爾全球商品洞察 (S&P Global Commodity Insights) 最近估計，今年夏天美國液化天然氣原料氣需求將比 2024 年夏天增加 35 億立方英尺/天，到 2030 年將增加一倍以上。這對 Kinder Morgan 來說應該是一個真正的利好，因為我們為這些設施輸送了大約 40% 的原料氣。

When you add the LNG -- the international LNG growth to the robust need for gas to satisfy US domestic power and industrial demand, examples of which are reflected in the new expansions that Kim and team will be discussing on this call signals to me that the positive natural gas store has legs and will last for decades to come.

如果再加上液化天然氣（LNG），即國際液化天然氣的成長，加上對天然氣的強勁需求，以滿足美國國內電力和工業需求，這些例子就反映在金正恩和團隊將在本次電話會議上討論的新擴張中，這向我表明，積極的天然氣儲備是有支撐的，並將持續數十年。

With that, I'll turn it over to Kim and the team.

說完這些，我將把權力交給 Kim 和團隊。

Okay. Thanks, Rich. Our financial results for the quarter showed strong growth over the second quarter of '24, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 6% and adjusted EPS increasing by 12%. For the year, we currently expect to exceed our original budget which already reflected very nice growth by at least the contribution from the Outrigger acquisition.

好的。謝謝，里奇。我們本季的財務表現顯示，與 24 年第二季相比，成長強勁，調整後的 EBITDA 成長 6%，調整後的 EPS 成長 12%。對於今年，我們目前預計會超出我們最初的預算，該預算已經至少透過收購 Outrigger 的貢獻體現出了非常好的成長。

It's an amazing time to be in the natural gas industry. This is certainly the best opportunities that I've seen during my 24 years in this industry. The underlying market fundamentals are strong with US natural gas demand expected to grow by 20% between now and 2030 by WoodMac's estimates.

現在是天然氣產業發展的黃金時代。這無疑是我在這個行業 24 年所見過的最好的機會。潛在的市場基本面強勁，根據伍德麥肯茲估計，從現在到 2030 年，美國天然氣需求預計將增加 20%。

The Federal permitting environment has improved. The US Army Corps of Engineers is issuing permits very quickly. We've seen some recent FERC action, which is helpful, including a 50% increase in the prior notice limit in a one-year waiver of the five-month waiting period between the time -- before you can start construction between the time the permit is issued and you can start construction.

聯邦許可環境已經改善。美國陸軍工程兵團正在非常迅速地發放許可證。我們看到聯邦能源管理委員會最近採取了一些有益的行動，包括將提前通知期限提高 50%，即在許可證簽發和開始施工之間的五個月等待期的一年豁免期。

So the Supreme Court ruling on NEPA should help narrow the scope of the NEPA reviews and make nuisance lawsuits more difficult. The recent budget reconciliation bill delivers nice tax benefit including incentives for investment and expanded interest deduction. As a result, we expect significant cash tax benefits in 2026 and 2027 and do not expect KMI to be a material cash taxpayer until 2028.

因此，最高法院對《國家環境政策法》的裁決應該有助於縮小《國家環境政策法》審查的範圍，並使滋擾訴訟變得更加困難。最近的預算協調法案提供了良好的稅收優惠，包括投資激勵措施和擴大利息扣除額。因此，我們預計 2026 年和 2027 年將獲得大量現金稅收優惠，並且預計 KMI 要到 2028 年才會成為重要的現金納稅人。

The one fly in the [ointment] is tariffs. However, at this point, we still do not believe that the tariffs will have a significant impact on project economics. For our large projects, MSX, South System 4, Trident, GCX, and Bridge that together comprise almost two-thirds of our backlog, we currently estimate that the impact of tariffs to be roughly 1% of project cost, which has not changed from our estimate last quarter.

唯一美中不足的是關稅。不過，目前我們仍然不認為關稅會對專案經濟產生重大影響。對於我們的大型專案 MSX、South System 4、Trident、GCX 和 Bridge（這些專案總計占我們積壓訂單的近三分之二），我們目前估計關稅的影響約為專案成本的 1%，與我們上個季度的估計相比沒有變化。

Our project backlog increased from $8.8 billion to $9.3 billion during the quarter. We added 1.3 in new projects and placed approximately $750 million of projects in service. The projects we added included Trident Phase 2 and the Louisiana Line Texas Access project which include moving natural gas from Katy, Texas into the Louisiana LNG market.

本季度，我們的專案積壓金額從 88 億美元增加到 93 億美元。我們新增了 1.3 個項目，並投入使用價值約 7.5 億美元的項目。我們增加的項目包括 Trident Phase 2 和路易斯安那線路德克薩斯州接入項目，其中包括將天然氣從德克薩斯州凱蒂輸送到路易斯安那州液化天然氣市場。

We also added two NGPL projects to serve power plants. All these projects are underpinned by long-term contracts and have attractive returns. We also approved approximately $500 million of CapEx for KinderHawk, which is supported by life-of-lease contracts to accommodate a significant volume ramp-up by our customers.

我們還增加了兩個NGPL項目來為發電廠提供服務。所有這些項目都以長期合約為基礎，並具有可觀的回報。我們還批准了 KinderHawk 約 5 億美元的資本支出，並透過租賃合約支持，以適應客戶產量的大幅成長。

Currently, approximately 50% of the projects in our backlog will serve power demand. The multiple on the backlog is around 5.6 times, slightly improved from Q1 as the projects we placed in service or at a lower -- that we placed in the backlog, we're at a lower multiple than the projects we placed in service. Overall, despite $6 billion in project additions to our backlog in the past year, we continue to see very nice future investment opportunities.

目前，我們積壓工程中約有50％將滿足電力需求。積壓訂單的倍數約為 5.6 倍，較第一季略有改善，因為我們投入服務的項目或積壓訂單的倍數低於我們投入服務的項目的倍數。總體而言，儘管去年我們的積壓項目增加了 60 億美元，但我們仍然看到非常好的未來投資機會。

As Tom Martin said to me the other day, we aren't in the first inning anymore, but we aren't anywhere near the seventh inning stretch. Our strategy remains unchanged. We own and operate stable fee-based assets, which are core to the energy infrastructure. We use our significant cash flow generated by these assets to invest in attractive return projects and we return money to our shareholders, all while maintaining a solid balance sheet.

正如湯姆馬丁前幾天對我說的那樣，我們已經不再處於第一局了，但也遠遠沒有接近第七局的階段。我們的策略保持不變。我們擁有並經營穩定的收費資產，這是能源基礎設施的核心。我們利用這些資產產生的大量現金流投資於有吸引力的回報項目，並將資金返還給股東，同時保持穩健的資產負債表。

With that, I'll turn it over to Tom.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給湯姆。

Thanks, Kim. Starting with the natural gas business unit, transport volumes were up 3% in the quarter versus the second quarter of 2024, primarily due to LNG deliveries on Tennessee Gas Pipeline as well as new contracts and LNG deliveries on our Texas Intrastate system. Natural gas gathering volumes were down 6% in the quarter versus second quarter. Across most of our G&P assets, the biggest impact being in our Haynesville system.

謝謝，金。從天然氣業務部門開始，本季的運輸量與 2024 年第二季度相比增長了 3%，這主要歸功於田納西州天然氣管道的液化天然氣交付以及我們德克薩斯州內州系統的新合約和液化天然氣交付。本季天然氣收集量與第二季相比下降了 6%。在我們的大部分 G&P 資產中，受到最大影響的是 Haynesville 系統。

Sequentially, total gathering volumes were down 1% or one produce -- our producer customers are still ramping back up after lower gas prices in the second half of 2024. For the full year, we expect our gathering volumes to average 3% above 2024, but 3% below our '25 budget. We anticipate gathering volumes will grow over the balance of the year given the higher price environment than in 2024 and the need for increased production to meet LNG demand growth that is ramping up throughout the remainder of the year.

環比而言，總收集量下降了 1% 或一個產量——在 2024 年下半年天然氣價格下跌後，我們的生產商客戶仍在恢復生產。我們預計全年收集量平均比 2024 年高出 3%，但比 2025 年預算低 3%。鑑於今年的價格環境將高於 2024 年，且需要增加產量才能滿足今年剩餘時間內不斷增長的液化天然氣需求，我們預計今年的收集量將會成長。

Looking forward, we continue to see significant incremental project opportunities across our natural gas pipeline network to expand our transportation and storage capabilities in support of the growing natural gas market.

展望未來，我們將繼續看到天然氣管道網路中大量增量項目機會，以擴大我們的運輸和儲存能力，並支持不斷增長的天然氣市場。

In our Products Pipeline segment, refined products volumes were up 2%, and crude and condensate volumes were also up 2% in the quarter compared to the second quarter of 2024. For the full-year 2025, refined products volumes are forecasted to be approximately 2% higher than in 2024 and flat to our budget.

在我們的產品管道部門，與 2024 年第二季相比，本季成品油產量增加了 2%，原油和凝析油產量也增加了 2%。預計 2025 年全年成品油產量將比 2024 年高出約 2%，與我們的預算持平。

In our Terminals business segment, our liquids lease capacity remains high at 94%. Market conditions continue to remain supportive of strong rates and high utilization at our key hubs at Houston Ship Channel and the New York Harbor. Our Jones Act tanker fleet is fully leased today and through the remainder of 2025. Assuming likely options are exercised, the fleet is 100% leased through 2026 and 97% leased through 2027. We have opportunistically chartered a significant percentage of the fleet at higher market rates and have extended the average length of our firm contract commitments to four years.

在我們的碼頭業務部門，我們的液體租賃容量仍然高達 94%。市場條件持續支持我們在休士頓航道和紐約港等主要樞紐的強勁運價和高利用率。我們的《瓊斯法案》油輪船隊目前以及 2025 年剩餘時間內的租賃情況均已全部完成。假設行使可能的選擇權，到 2026 年，機隊的租賃率為 100%，到 2027 年，租賃率為 97%。我們抓住機會，以更高的市場價格租賃了相當一部分船隊船舶，並將我們的固定合約承諾的平均期限延長至四年。

The CO2 segment experienced slightly lower oil production volumes at 3%, higher NGL volumes at 13%, and lower CO2 volumes at 8% in the quarter versus second quarter of 2024. For the full year, oil volumes are forecasted to be 4% below 2024 and 1% below our 2025 budget.

與 2024 年第二季相比，本季二氧化碳部門的石油產量略有下降，為 3%，天然氣液體產量上升，為 13%，二氧化碳產量下降，為 8%。預計全年石油產量將比 2024 年低 4%，比 2025 年預算低 1%。

With that, I'll turn it over to David.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給大衛。

All right. Thanks, Tom. Okay. So we're declaring a dividend for the quarter of $0.2925 per share, which is $1.17 per share annualized and 2% up from our 2024 dividend. For the quarter, we generated net income attributable to KMI of $715 million, which is 24% above the second quarter of 2024.

好的。謝謝，湯姆。好的。因此，我們宣布本季股息為每股 0.2925 美元，年化股息為每股 1.17 美元，比 2024 年股息高出 2%。本季度，我們實現歸屬於 KMI 的淨收入為 7.15 億美元，比 2024 年第二季度成長 24%。

We generated EPS of $0.32, up $0.06 from last year. Some of that benefit was due to favorable mark-to-market unsettled hedges, which we treated certain items. But on an adjusted net income basis, which excludes certain items, we generated $619 million and adjusted EPS of $0.28, up 13% and 12% from last year, respectively. So even excluding the favorable certain items, we still experienced nice double-digit growth from last year.

我們的每股收益為 0.32 美元，比去年同期增長 0.06 美元。部分收益來自於有利的按市價計價的未結算對沖，我們對此進行了處理。但根據調整後的淨收入（不包括某些項目），我們創造了 6.19 億美元的收入，調整後的每股收益為 0.28 美元，分別比去年增長 13% 和 12%。因此，即使排除某些有利因素，我們仍然比去年實現了兩位數的良好成長。

Our growth was driven by greater contributions from our natural gas expansion projects, the Outrigger acquisition, and attractive multiple -- attractive natural gas capacity sales and other services driven by favorable demand on our assets. We also received greater contributions from our Jones Act tankers.

我們的成長得益於天然氣擴建項目、Outrigger 收購以及多種具有吸引力的天然氣產能銷售和其他服務帶來的更大貢獻，這些服務是由對我們資產的良好需求所驅動的。我們也從《瓊斯法案》油輪獲得了更多捐款。

On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $32.3 billion of net debt and a 4.0 times net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio. That 4.0 times is down from 4.1 times from the first quarter, which was right after we closed the acquisition of Outrigger. We expect to end the year with net debt to adjusted EBITDA that rounds up to 3.9 times. Our net debt has increased by $623 million from the beginning of the year.

從資產負債表來看，本季末我們的淨負債為 323 億美元，淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 4.0 倍。這一 4.0 倍低於第一季的 4.1 倍，當時我們剛完成對 Outrigger 的收購。我們預計今年底淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率將達到 3.9 倍。我們的淨債務比年初增加了 6.23 億美元。

And here's a high-level reconciliation of that change. We generated cash flow from operations of $2.811 billion for the first two quarters. We paid dividends of $1.3 billion. We've invested total capital of $1.42 billion. The Outrigger acquisition was approximately $650 million and all of our other items were a use of cash of about $65 million, and that gets you to the $623 million increase for the year.

以下是對這項變化的高層協調。前兩個季度，我們的經營現金流為 28.11 億美元。我們支付了13億美元的股利。我們已投資總資本額14.2億美元。Outrigger 的收購價值約為 6.5 億美元，我們所有其他項目均使用約 6,500 萬美元的現金，因此今年的增幅為 6.23 億美元。

As Kim mentioned, we expect to exceed budget by at least the contribution from the Outrigger acquisition. Our budgeted 2025 adjusted EBITDA growth from '24 was 4%. Just including the Outrigger acquisition, our EBITDA growth would increase to 5% and our adjusted EPS growth would remain at an attractive 10% from 2024.

正如 Kim 所提到的，我們預計至少會超出預算的金額，這部分是 Outrigger 收購帶來的貢獻。我們預算的 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 成長率為 4%。如果只算上 Outrigger 收購，我們的 EBITDA 成長率將從 2024 年起增至 5%，調整後的 EPS 成長率將維持在頗具吸引力的 10%。

Most of our 2025 budgeted growth comes from expansion project contributions and we remain on target to place those expansion projects in service on time and on budget with only minor variances. The largest expansion contributions come from Evangeline Pass project and our South Texas to Houston project, our Texas intrastate system. Both of those are now in service.

我們 2025 年預算的成長大部分來自擴建專案貢獻，我們仍將按照目標按時、按預算將這些擴建專案投入使用，只有微小的差異。最大的擴建貢獻來自伊万傑琳山口項目和我們的南德克薩斯至休斯頓項目，即我們的德克薩斯州內系統。這兩艘船目前均已投入使用。

So in -- my final items. In June, Moody's placed our credit rating on positive outlook and they joined S&P who put us on positive earlier in the year. Our credit spreads have already improved some as a result. So we're off to a good start for the year tracking to beat our budget. We've sanctioned additional attractive projects that will add to our future growth and expect meaningful cash flow benefits from tax reform.

所以這是我的最終項目。6 月份，穆迪將我們的信用評級定為正面展望，與今年早些時候給予我們正面評級的標準普爾一樣，穆迪也給了我們正面評級。我們的信用利差已因此有所改善。因此，我們今年開局良好，並有望超出預算。我們批准了更多有吸引力的項目，這些項目將有助於我們未來的成長，並期望稅收改革帶來可觀的現金流收益。

I'll turn it back to Kim for Q&A.

我會將其交還給 Kim 進行問答。

Okay. Michelle, if you'll come back on and we will take questions.

好的。米歇爾，如果你能回來的話，我們會回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Theresa Cheng, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Cheng。

Good afternoon and congratulations on the progress in the commercial backlog under what seems to be fierce competition. Do you think the commercial landscape has changed with these demand tailwinds on a structural basis? And what do you think has allowed Kinder to win many of these projects? And what kind of learnings can you share that might shape your strategy going forward on the heels of these commercial wins?

下午好，祝賀在激烈的競爭下商業積壓取得進展。您是否認為商業格局會隨著這些需求順風而產生結構性變化？您認為是什麼讓金德贏得了這些項目中的許多項目？您可以分享哪些經驗來幫助您在這些商業勝利之後製定未來的策略？

Okay. A couple of points on that. One, I think what -- part of what allows us to be competitive is the existing asset footprint that we have. We've got an outstanding footprint. And so we are very competitive where we can build off of that footprint and/or use the existing footprint to deliver volumes to customers.

好的。關於這一點，有幾點要說。首先，我認為，我們之所以具有競爭力，部分原因在於我們現有的資產足跡。我們留下了傑出的足跡。因此，我們非常有競爭力，我們可以在該足跡的基礎上進行建造和/或使用現有的足跡向客戶提供大量產品。

I'd say the other things are, I think people trust us to be able to build projects and get them delivered. And so if they've got a significant investment that they need natural gas delivered, they don't want to be waiting on those molecules. When they get that project in service, they want to be able to have the supply there.

我想說的是，其他的事情是，我認為人們相信我們能夠建造專案並交付它們。因此，如果他們有大量投資，需要輸送天然氣，他們就不想等待這些分子。當他們開始實施該專案時，他們希望能夠在那裡獲得供應。

So I think our track record in building and delivering projects is helpful. And then I think the way we operate and the customer service that we provide in terms of trying to make sure that if we have maintenance or other items that our customers need to know well in advance trying to make sure that we perform that maintenance at times when our customers would be least impacted and trying to find times when our customers -- when we can find alternative delivery for them.

因此我認為我們在建設和交付專案方面的記錄是有幫助的。然後，我認為我們的營運方式和我們提供的客戶服務是為了確保如果我們有維護或其他項目，我們的客戶需要提前知道，確保我們在客戶受到的影響最小的時間進行維護，並嘗試找到客戶的時間——我們可以為他們找到替代的交付方式。

So I think that's some of the things that go into the commercial discussions and allow us to win projects. And I think you can see from what we've added to the backlog, we've been very successful.

所以我認為這是商業討論中的一些因素，可以讓我們贏得專案。我想您可以從我們添加到積壓工作的內容中看到，我們非常成功。

Thank you. And looking forward on additional projects to come potentially in the backlog, as far as the expansion of Westwood from the Permian, what is the progress on building additional natural gas infrastructure on that front? And what would something like copper state connector amount to in terms of cost economics as well as the potential for subsequent brownfield expansions down the line?

謝謝。展望積壓項目中可能出現的更多項目，就二疊紀盆地韋斯特伍德的擴張而言，在這方面建設更多天然氣基礎設施的進展如何？那麼，就成本經濟性以及後續棕地擴建的潛力而言，像銅州連接器之類的東西會是什麼樣子呢？

Okay. Well, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. On Copper State, there's clearly a need in Arizona. I think the Arizona utilities have need for more natural gas. I think there's the potential for data centers, and we're having conversations on those fronts. Obviously, that would be a large project.

好的。好吧，我們不要想得太遠。在銅州，亞利桑那州顯然有需求。我認為亞利桑那州的公用事業需要更多的天然氣。我認為資料中心具有潛力，我們正在就這些方面進行討論。顯然，這將是一個大項目。

There are other Copper State wood -- I mean there are other smaller projects that we have that we're looking at. But it is a competitive process on Copper State and constantly changing tariffs make things more challenging on these larger projects where we've got to come to agreement with multiple different shippers. And then any project that we do on this front, the project is going to have to meet our return thresholds. And so we're going to be very disciplined about how we deploy capital on this. But I mean, a project could be anywhere from $4 billion to $5 billion-ish.

還有其他 Copper State 木材——我的意思是我們正在考慮其他一些較小的項目。但在 Copper State 上這是一個競爭過程，不斷變化的關稅使這些大型專案更具挑戰性，我們必須與多個不同的托運人達成協議。然後，我們在這方面開展的任何專案都必須達到我們的回報門檻。因此，我們將非常嚴格地部署這方面的資本。但我的意思是，一個專案的花費可能在 40 億美元到 50 億美元左右。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Michael Blum, Wells Fargo.

麥可布魯姆，富國銀行。

Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. How do -- capital allocation question really between gas pipelines and gathering investments. You talked about this big opportunity set on the gas pipeline side. Your average multiple is between 5 and 6 times. So how do we think about a $500 million investment in KinderHawk? Does that mean this change on investment is generating an even higher return than that given the higher risk profile? Just kind of think through all that.

謝謝。大家下午好。——天然氣管道和集輸投資之間究竟如何進行資本分配的問題。您談到了天然氣管道方面的巨大機會。您的平均倍數在 5 到 6 倍之間。那麼我們該如何看待 KinderHawk 的 5 億美元投資呢？這是否意味著這種投資變化會產生比更高風險狀況更高的回報？仔細思考這一切。

Okay. Sure. So let me start by saying no change in the way that we make our investment decisions or in our approach to investment or investment returns. The way we've always done it is we look at the risk/reward. So you're looking at -- on the risk side, you're looking at how stable the cash flows. And so that gets into, okay, is it a take-or-pay contract or is it a life of lease dedication? Does it have -- if it's a take-or-pay, is it a five-year contract or is it a 20-year contract? What's the credit on that?

好的。當然。首先我想說的是，我們的投資決策方式以及投資或投資回報方式都沒有改變。我們一直以來的做法是考慮風險/報酬。因此，從風險面來看，您要看的是現金流的穩定性。那麼，好吧，這是一份照付不議合約還是一份租賃年限合約？如果是照付不議，合約期限是 5 年還是 20 年？這有什麼好稱讚的？

And so when you have longer contracts with higher creditworthy partners, and their take-or-pay, then within our return threshold range, you're going to skew to the lower side of that range. And when you have things that have commodity exposure or volume exposure, then you're going to look for a return at the higher end of our target range.

因此，當您與信用較高的合作夥伴簽訂了長期合同，並且他們採取照付不議的政策時，在我們的回報門檻範圍內，您的回報就會偏向該範圍的較低水平。當你擁有具有商品風險或數量風險的東西時，你就會尋求我們目標範圍高端的回報。

Okay. Great. Thanks for that. And then I just want to see an update how you're thinking about behind-the-meter opportunities. I know you've talked about maybe having something in place with partners or -- so wanted to see where that stands and how meaningful a driver of future CapEx that could be? Thanks.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。然後我只是想看看你對電錶後機會的看法。我知道您已經談到可能與合作夥伴達成某種協議，或者——所以想看看協議的進展情況以及這對未來資本支出的推動作用有多大？謝謝。

So I think when we think about where we've seen the most action on the data center front, if you will, is really from regulated utilities. I mean that's where we're seeing most stuff get done. So a regulated utility is able to put it in their rate base. They're going out and they're getting a PPA with the data center provider.

因此，我認為，當我們思考資料中心方面採取的最大行動時，實際上就是來自受監管的公用事業。我的意思是，我們看到大多數事情都是在那裡完成的。因此，受監管的公用事業公司可以將其納入其費率基礎。他們正在出去並與資料中心提供者簽訂 PPA。

We have not seen a lot of IPPs that have announced projects at this point in time. But obviously, we are talking to them, and that's a reasonable possibility because I think if IPPs can get contracts, they'll be able to build as well. But I'm going to turn it over to Sital and he can talk a little bit more about our strategy there.

目前我們還沒有看到很多 IPP 宣布項目。但顯然，我們正在與他們交談，這是一個合理的可能性，因為我認為如果 IPP 能夠獲得合同，他們也能夠建設。但我將把它交給西塔爾，他可以再多談我們的策略。

Yes. So one of the things, as we look at the landscape on data centers, speed to market is key. And so as we look at the opportunity set, as Kim said, our focus has thus far been on the utility side and helping them with their power needs. We are looking at kind of a broader structure such as where we've got some key partners that specialize in their respective fields.

是的。因此，當我們審視資料中心的前景時，上市速度是關鍵之一。因此，正如金所說，當我們審視機會時，我們的重點迄今為止一直放在公用事業方面，並幫助他們滿足電力需求。我們正在考慮一種更廣泛的結構，例如我們擁有一些專注於各自領域的關鍵合作夥伴。

Our expertise lies in bringing supply to the point. We bring storage and then we let the other folks do what they do best, including hyperscalers that know how to build data centers. And so I think the concept is we are looking at a few key sites in different areas and seeing if we can kind of pull together a bigger, broader project, specifically tied to behind the meter.

我們的專長在於確保供應到位。我們提供存儲，然後讓其他人做他們最擅長的事情，包括知道如何建立資料中心的超大規模企業。所以我認為我們的想法是，我們正在檢視不同地區的幾個關鍵站點，看看我們是否可以整合一個更大、更廣泛的項目，特別是與電錶相關的項目。

John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的約翰·麥凱。

Hey, everyone. Thank you for the time. I'm just going to pick up on this project thread, of course. Maybe just talking about the backlog on the gas side. You mentioned about 50% power utilities at this point. That's arguably a larger share than power has and kind of the go-forward gas demand growth we're looking at relative to LNG, I suppose.

嘿，大家好。感謝您抽出時間。當然，我只是要繼續這個計畫的討論。也許只是談論天然氣的積壓問題。您提到此時的電力設施約為 50%。我想，這比電力所佔的份額更大，也是我們所看到的相對於液化天然氣的未來天然氣需求成長。

Maybe could you just talk a little bit about how you'd expect that 50% to kind of trend from here? Would incremental projects on the horizon, maybe putting aside copper state for a second, start leaning more LNG, I mean we need to wait more FIDs. Maybe just frame up like how that mix looks over the next couple of quarters or years?

也許您能簡單談談您認為從現在起這 50% 的趨勢會如何？即將出現的增量項目是否會暫時擱置銅州，開始傾向於更多的液化天然氣，我的意思是我們需要等待更多的最終投資決定 (FID)。也許只是設想一下未來幾季或幾年內這種組合會是什麼樣子？

Yes. I mean I'd say it's hard to project exactly what that mix is going to look like. Obviously, the biggest driver of demand growth, both in WoodMac's projections and in our internal projections as LNG and there's a doubling of -- expected doubling of LNG. As we've said a number of times, those LNG projects, I mean, generally, when they get sanctioned, there's an initial project that is sort of a mainline from the facility to the nearest liquid point.

是的。我的意思是，很難準確預測出這種混合會是什麼樣子。顯然，無論是在 WoodMac 的預測還是在我們的內部預測中，需求成長的最大驅動力都是液化天然氣，而且預計液化天然氣將翻倍。正如我們多次說過的，那些液化天然氣項目，我的意思是，一般來說，當它們獲得批准時，都會有一個初始項目，它是從設施到最近的液體點的主線。

But then generally, as they move forward with their development, they're looking to find more competitive supply and diversified supply. And so that leads to additional projects down the line.

但總體來說，隨著發展的推進，他們會尋求更具競爭力的供應和多樣化的供應。從而引出後續的更多項目。

One of the things that we've consistently said and that we consistently see is -- and this is especially true in the WoodMac numbers is we don't think that the WoodMac numbers accurately reflect the growth that we think we're going to see in power demand. And that could be a difference between the volumes that they expect to flow and what we expect to sign up in terms of long-term take-or-pay contracts.

我們一直在說並且一直在看到的一件事是——這在 WoodMac 的數據中尤其明顯，我們認為 WoodMac 的數據並不能準確反映我們認為將會看到的電力需求成長。這可能是他們預期的流量與我們預期簽署的長期照付不議合約之間的差異。

But the demand, the breadth and the scope of the power demand is very enormous. And so I mean, we're seeing power demand in Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, I mean, Texas. And so I mean, the amount of power demand, I think, and the projects that we're going to see on that front are when you look at that relative to the expectations for demand in power, I just think there is an alignment there.

但電力需求的廣度和範圍非常巨大。所以我的意思是，我們看到阿肯色州、路易斯安那州、喬治亞州、南卡羅來納州、亞利桑那州、威斯康辛州，也就是德州的電力需求。所以我的意思是，我認為，當你從電力需求量和我們將要看到的這方面的項目來看，相對於電力需求的預期，我認為這兩者是一致的。

That's helpful. That's interesting. And maybe just for my next question, you come on the new tax rules should open up some incremental cash flow for you, guys. I guess just wondering if you can kind of put a bit of a number around the incremental cash kind of looking forward.

這很有幫助。那很有意思。也許我的下一個問題是，新的稅收規則應該會為你們帶來一些增量現金流。我只是想知道您是否可以對未來的增量現金做出一個大概的數字。

And then on a related point, does it change how you think about your ability to go after projects your kind of implicit cost of capital? I know you're kind of defending the return profile you want to get, but does an incremental tax framework change that at all?

然後，就相關問題而言，它是否會改變您對追求隱性資本成本項目的能力的看法？我知道您在某種程度上正在捍衛自己想要獲得的回報狀況，但增量稅收框架會改變這一點嗎？

Hey, John. It's David. For the tax reform benefit, we're not quantifying it any more specifically than just saying we've got nice benefits from it beginning in 2025. It's not material in 2025 to our forecast, but we'll see some benefits this year because it was retroactive to the beginning of the year. We are seeing substantial benefits in '26 and '27. So as Kim said, we don't expect to be a material federal income taxpayer in either of those years as a result of the tax reform.

嘿，約翰。是戴維。對於稅改帶來的好處，我們不會更具體地量化它，只是說從 2025 年開始我們將從中獲得很好的利益。這對我們的預測來說在 2025 年並不重要，但今年我們會看到一些好處，因為它可以追溯到年初。我們在 26 年和 27 年看到了實質的利益。因此，正如金所說，由於稅制改革，我們預計這兩年都不會成為聯邦所得稅的實際納稅人。

We see nice benefits there after, but we're not quantifying those. And it also depends a little bit on when we put new projects into service because the full expensing provision is really the biggest piece of the benefit that we're getting from tax reform.

我們看到了其帶來的好處，但我們沒有量化這些好處。這在某種程度上也取決於我們何時投入新項目，因為全額費用化條款實際上是我們從稅制改革中獲得的最大利益。

And I would say having that incremental cash flow doesn't change our investment strategy. So we're not moving our return thresholds because we have incremental cash flow available. I think our view is, and continues to be, that for good return projects, there's unlimited capital and we will find a way to finance them.

我想說的是，增量現金流不會改變我們的投資策略。因此，我們不會改變我們的回報門檻，因為我們有可用的增量現金流。我認為我們的觀點是，並將繼續是，對於回報良好的項目，有無限的資本，我們會找到為其融資的方法。

So obviously, we've got a lot of cash flow available more now than we did before. We've got room on our balance sheet. And I think with the projects that we're doing, they're attractive projects. And so if we ever needed to, we can bring in outside capital.

顯然，我們現在擁有的現金流比以前多得多。我們的資產負債表上還有空間。我認為我們正在進行的專案都是很有吸引力的專案。因此，如果需要，我們可以引入外部資本。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

Good afternoon, Jeremy.

下午好，傑里米。

Want to turn to Arkansas, if I could. We've seen recent reports of hyperscaler activity there and I want to double click on your Texas, Arkansas Power project. Noticed a binding open season there and given the 400 already prearranged there, it seems like that could support 2 gigs, very nice size for the project right there. But do you expect more to come along at that point?

如果可以的話，我想去阿肯色州。我們看到了最近有關那裡超大規模活動的報道，我想雙擊您的德克薩斯州、阿肯色州電力項目。注意到那裡有一個具有約束力的開放季節，並且考慮到那裡已經預先安排了 400 個，似乎可以支持 2 個演出，對於那裡的項目來說，這個規模非常合適。但您預計到那時還會出現更多的事情嗎？

Do you see the possibility for more demand beyond that? Or really, you kind of have a fit-for-purpose pipe rate here and ready to go? And anything you could provide as far as incremental details there would be helpful.

您是否認為需求可能會進一步增加？或者實際上，您已經擁有了適合用途的管道並且準備好使用了？您提供的任何增量細節都會很有幫助。

Yes, Jeremy, this is Sital. So I'll back space on that and tell you that it's -- that project is supporting power. But broadly, when you think about the opportunity set, we are seeing incremental opportunity set not only in Arkansas, Texas, but along that Midwest corridor.

是的，傑里米，這是西塔爾。因此，我將回顧這一點並告訴您——該專案正在支持電力。但從廣義上講，當你考慮機會集時，我們看到機會集不僅在阿肯色州、德克薩斯州，而且在中西部走廊沿線也不斷增加。

We do see incremental demand on the power side, where the utility ultimately uses it. That will be up to the utility. As we talked about we're looking at our own behind-the-meter opportunities, and so I think there is a robust pipeline of opportunities that we are trying to pursue specifically in Arkansas and really broader across the network.

我們確實看到電力方面的需求增加，而電力最終是由公用事業公司使用的。這取決於實用性。正如我們所說的，我們正在尋找我們自己的電錶後機會，因此我認為，我們正試圖在阿肯色州以及整個網路範圍內尋求大量的機會。

And I'd say we don't always know if the power is going to a data center or what exactly so that they're using it for. So we don't always have clear visibility through -- our customer is typically the power -- is typically the power plant.

我想說的是，我們並不總是知道電力是否會流向資料中心，或者他們究竟要用它做什麼。因此，我們並不總是能清楚地了解——我們的客戶通常是電力公司——通常是發電廠。

Right, right. Understood. Just the size of it there. It could support some nice power for the utility and not for Kinder, understood there. But I'll leave that there.

對，對。明白了。就在那裡的大小。它可以為公用事業提供一些不錯的電力，但不能為 Kinder 提供，這一點大家明白。但我就不說了。

I'm just wondering, post the Georgia Power IRP filing here, does this impact, I think, the opportunity set as you see it in the Southeast? Could there be upside I guess, to your current expansion plan scope to make those expansions larger?

我只是想知道，在這裡發布 Georgia Power IRP 文件，我認為這是否會影響您在東南部看到的機會？我猜想，您目前的擴展計劃範圍是否有好處，可以使這些擴展變得更大？

Yes. Look, I mean, as we've alluded to on previous calls, I think there is a broader opportunity set. We're early in our discussions there. But the fundamentals look sound and the opportunity set looks good.

是的。你看，我的意思是，正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，我認為還有更廣泛的機會。我們的討論才剛開始。但基本面看起來良好，機會也看起來不錯。

Obviously, we're positioned well with the network there, including the latest set of expansions. And as we alluded to on the last call, I think Rich said, we've got ancillary expansion opportunities to layer on top of that, we will pursue those as they present themselves.

顯然，我們在那裡擁有良好的網路定位，包括最新的擴展。正如我們在上次電話會議上提到的那樣，我認為里奇說，我們擁有輔助擴張機會，我們將抓住這些機會。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Good afternoon. It looks like you have increased the size of Trident from 1.5 to 2 Bcf. And as I remember, you did this with Mississippi Crossings also the pipe got announced at 1.5 and got scaled up very quickly to 2.1. I'm trying to understand what's driving this incremental demand. You come in, you announce a project and very quickly, you're able to size it up. So help us talk through those dynamics a little.

午安.看起來您已經將 Trident 的大小從 1.5 億立方英尺增加到了 20 億立方英尺。我記得你們在密西西比河大橋項目上也做過類似的項目，管道最初宣布的容量是1.5，後來很快就擴容到了2.1。我想了解是什麼推動了這種需求的成長。你進來，宣布一個項目，然後很快你就能對它進行評估。因此，請幫助我們稍微討論一下這些動態。

Yes. I mean, on Trident, incremental demands associated with LNG. And it was a fairly easy expansion because there all we needed to do was add some compression. I think when you go to a Phase III, then that would require some looping. So that's a little bit bigger nugget to take on and so that would require more volume to do Phase III.

是的。我的意思是，就三叉戟而言，與液化天然氣相關的增量需求。這是一個相當容易的擴展，因為我們所需要做的就是添加一些壓縮。我認為當你進入第三階段時，就需要一些循環。因此，這是一個更大的金塊，需要更多的體積才能完成第三階段。

But that pipeline is in a great, great location. And to be able to get molecules from Texas all the way over into Louisiana is something people have been trying to do for a long time and the combination of Trident and KMLA does that.

但該管道的位置非常好。而將分子從德克薩斯州一路運送到路易斯安那州是人們長期以來一直在嘗試的事情，而 Trident 和 KMLA 的結合實現了這一點。

Yes. In terms of the timing piece, Manav, I mean, really, it's when we get the executed contracts to get us the returns that are sufficient. We know we have other customers that are interested. We will FID the project if it makes sense and then we continue to try and build upon it. That's been the strategy.

是的。就時間方面而言，Manav，我的意思是，實際上，當我們獲得已執行的合約時，我們才能獲得足夠的回報。我們知道還有其他客戶有興趣。如果項目合理，我們將對其進行最終確定，然後繼續嘗試並在此基礎上繼續發展。這就是我們的策略。

Perfect. And it looks like the backlog also benefited from the NGPL new projects. Can you talk about -- a little more about these projects? It looks like the power plant-related projects. So if you could help us understand that this incremental projects from NGPL that added to the backlog in this quarter? Thank you.

完美的。而且看起來積壓的工作也受惠於 NGPL 新專案。您能否再多談談這些項目？看起來像是與發電廠相關的項目。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解本季增加積壓的 NGPL 增量專案？謝謝。

Yes, they're both power projects to serve power demand. One is in Arkansas, one's in Wisconsin essentially.

是的，它們都是滿足電力需求的電力項目。一個在阿肯色州，一個在威斯康辛州。

Yes. That's probably all we can tell you at this point.

是的。這可能就是我們現在能告訴你的全部了。

Jean Ann Salisbury, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

Hi. I just wanted to follow up to Kim's answer to John's question earlier about when LNG projects sign up for their gas pipeline needs vis-a-vis when they get sanctioned. You've obviously had a ton of LNG contracting activity over the last quarter. I think you're probably still to come this sort of large wave of sanctioning. So I guess my question is if you believe that those projects have kind of already signed up for the gas takeaway that they would need or if that's basically coming as the sanction of the projects over the next year?

你好。我只是想跟進 Kim 之前對 John 的問題的回答，關於液化天然氣項目何時簽署其天然氣管道需求以及何時獲得批准。顯然，你們在上個季度已經簽訂了大量液化天然氣合約。我認為，這種大規模的製裁浪潮可能還會繼續襲來。所以我想我的問題是，您是否認為這些項目已經簽署了它們所需的天然氣外送協議，或者這基本上是明年對這些項目的批准？

Generally, what we see -- and Sital will jump in here, is that when a project gets -- to get a project in FID, they need to get their financing and put their financing in place. And so to put that financing in place usually they've got to have a gas supply. And so that's when the initial project, as I'll call it, from the facility to the nearest liquid point gets sanctioned.

一般來說，我們看到的是——Sital 也會加入進來，當一個專案獲得 FID 時，他們需要獲得融資並將融資落實到位。因此，為了獲得融資，他們通常必須有天然氣供應。這就是我所說的從設施到最近的液體點的初始項目獲得批准的時候。

And then generally, what happens after that is as they continue and they're starting to get closer to in-service, they decide, okay, and they're thinking about really how am I going to supply this on a daily basis. Then they start looking at, okay, that liquid point is very competitively priced. I might want to get some cheaper molecules and/or what happens if a pipe goes down or something, maybe I also need some diversification. So that happens more over time between the time the project gets sanctioned and before it gets put in service.

然後一般來說，之後發生的事情是，隨著他們繼續工作並開始接近投入使用，他們會決定，好吧，他們會真正思考我將如何在日常工作中提供這些服務。然後他們開始考慮，好吧，那個液體點的價格非常有競爭力。我可能想要獲得一些更便宜的分子和/或如果管道出現故障或出現其他情況，也許我還需要一些多樣化。因此，在專案獲得批准和投入使用之間，這種情況會逐漸增加。

And let me just add to what Kim says that given the fact that this demand is occurring primarily along the Gulf Coast, where our system is so extensive. This kind of opportunity just lends itself to a structure like we have. I think we cannot overemphasize the benefit that we have from the infrastructure that already exists and the ability to expand it on a reasonable basis.

讓我補充一下金所說的，鑑於這種需求主要發生在墨西哥灣沿岸，而我們的系統在那裡非常廣泛。這種機會正好適合我們現有的結構。我認為，我們不能過度強調現有基礎設施以及合理擴展基礎設施的能力為我們帶來的好處。

That's very clear. Thank you. And then as a follow-up, I wanted to ask about some of the dynamics of Permian gas pipelines. We're very tight on egress capacity today, but something like 5 Bcf/d comes online next year, including your own GCX expansion. And I think there are a few other possible projects out of the Permian that seem to be progressing.

這非常清楚。謝謝。然後作為後續問題，我想問一些有關二疊紀天然氣管道的動態。目前我們的出口容量非常緊張，但明年將有大約 50 億立方英尺/天的容量上線，包括您自己的 GCX 擴充。我認為二疊紀盆地還有其他一些可能的計畫正在取得進展。

So I guess the question is, if there's some concern that this could put pressure on rates for Kinder Morgan later in the decade if some of those initial pipeline contracts begin to roll off, can you just kind of talk about how you would frame that risk of Permian overbuild?

所以我想問題是，如果有人擔心，如果一些初始管道合約開始到期，這可能會在未來十年後期對金德摩根的利率造成壓力，您能否談談您如何看待二疊紀盆地過度建設的風險？

Sure. So the contract -- GCX and PHP R2, I think those 10-year contracts expire '29 and '30. What I would say is, given that those were some of the first pipelines built out of the Permian to the Gulf Coast, they have very attractive rates on them. And so two things. One is, I think they are lower rates than where new projects are getting priced. So there's going to be some of the cheaper transport out of there.

當然。因此，合約——GCX 和 PHP R2，我認為這些 10 年合約將於 29 年和 30 年到期。我想說的是，鑑於這些是從二疊紀盆地到墨西哥灣沿岸建造的第一批管道，它們的費率非常有吸引力。所以有兩件事。一是，我認為它們的價格低於新項目的定價。因此那裡的交通會比較便宜。

And then the -- I forgot what the second point I was going to make. But, Sital, go ahead.

然後──我忘了我要講的第二點是什麼。但是，西塔爾，繼續吧。

Yes. So I mean, the other thing, as we think about the two pipes that we have, if you're talking about kind of recontracting risk, et cetera, those pipelines fit very well in our network and we have the ability to extract probably, in my view, better values once those -- if those aren't recontracted. And so we view that risk is low.

是的。所以我的意思是，另一件事，當我們考慮我們擁有的兩條管道時，如果你談論的是重新簽約風險等等，這些管道非常適合我們的網絡，而且在我看來，我們有能力提取更好的價值，一旦 - 如果這些管道沒有重新簽約。因此我們認為風險較低。

When we think about the next project out of the basin, we're going to be very prudent as we think about our focus has shifted to demand pull when you think about the projects that we sanctioned over the last couple of quarters. So if there is another producer-push project, it would obviously have to be very well contracted and for a longer term.

當我們考慮盆地中的下一個項目時，我們會非常謹慎，因為考慮到我們在過去幾個季度批准的項目，我們的重點已經轉移到需求拉動上。因此，如果有另一個生產者推動的項目，顯然必須簽訂非常好的合約並且期限更長。

So those pipes go into our Texas intrastate system. They feed contracts that we have in the Austin market. So we have in-use demand attached to that and that's something that we can offer shoppers and customers that other people can offer.

這些管道進入了我們的德克薩斯州州內系統。他們為我們在奧斯汀市場簽訂的合約提供支援。因此，我們有與之相關的使用需求，這是我們可以向購物者和客戶提供的其他人可以提供的東西。

And then the other thing I was going to say is that when we run our economics in order to be conservative to make sure we get good returns on these projects, we assume generally, we assume a step down in rates whenever contracts roll. Not saying that that's going to happen here. But that's part of how we make sure that we get the returns we're expecting to get.

然後我要說的另一件事是，當我們運行經濟時，為了保守起見，確保我們從這些項目中獲得良好的回報，我們通常假設，每當合約到期時，利率都會下降。並不是說這會在這裡發生。但這是我們確保獲得預期回報的一部分。

Keith Stanley, Wolfe Research.

基斯‧史丹利（Keith Stanley），沃爾夫研究公司。

Hi, good afternoon. I wanted to start on the $500 million Haynesville gathering project. When would the expansion capacity be in service? And what's the projected time line for the volume ramp to get to returns? And then relatedly, how do you think, if at all, about potential Haynesville takeaway pipelines given all the Louisiana LNG projects we're seeing and your expanded gathering presence?

嗨，下午好。我想啟動價值 5 億美元的海恩斯維爾收集計畫。擴容後什麼時候可以投入使用？那麼，預計產量增加到回報的時間是什麼時候？然後相關的是，考慮到我們看到的所有路易斯安那州液化天然氣項目以及您擴大的收集業務，您對潛在的海恩斯維爾外送管道有何看法？

Sure. So on your first question, we plan on getting all of our facilities in by the end of the fourth quarter next year. And so we do see volume ramping up along the way. Really, we're adding treating capacity and we're adding incremental pipe loops just to get -- unlock some of the hydraulics there.

當然。關於您的第一個問題，我們計劃在明年第四季末之前建造所有設施。因此我們確實看到交易量在一路上升。實際上，我們正在增加處理能力，並增加增量管道環路，只是為了解鎖那裡的一些液壓系統。

Look, as we think about the outlook in the Haynesville, you've got a very productive basin that's very close to the demand centers that we've been talking about. And so there's a definite need to get incremental molecules to those consuming base consuming the consumers, right? We got to get the physical molecule there.

瞧，當我們思考海恩斯維爾的前景時，你會發現它是一個非常富饒的盆地，而且非常靠近我們一直在談論的需求中心。因此，肯定需要向那些消費基礎、消費消費者的人群提供增量分子，對嗎？我們必須將物理分子送到那裡。

So as far as the build-out -- the existing build-out that's there, given the growth that we see on the Gulf Coast, I think all that does is creates incremental opportunities for us both our interstate and intrastate networks to be able to connect the dots. You've got a lot of convergence at [Gilles] right now. We're exploring opportunities downstream of Gilles to connect the market to that supply that's aggregating at Gilles. And if there's an opportunity we could even consider tying in some of that KinderHawk production on another takeaway project out of the basin. But once again, all of that's got to be contracted for, and it's got to make economic sense.

因此，就建設而言——考慮到墨西哥灣沿岸的增長，現有的建設將為我們的州際和州內網絡連接各個點創造增量機會。現在，[Gilles] 已經達成了許多共識。我們正在探索吉爾斯下游的機會，將市場與聚集在吉爾斯的供應連接起來。如果有機會，我們甚至可以考慮將 KinderHawk 的部分產品與盆地外的另一個外帶項目結合。但再次強調，所有這些都必須簽訂合同，而且必須具有經濟意義。

Great. Thanks for that. Second one, I wanted to follow up on some of your opening comments, Kim, on the permitting improvement and the order 871 and no longer having to wait the five-month waiting period before starting construction. When you think in aggregate about those improvements that you're seeing, could this meaningfully accelerate the time line on some of your larger projects versus original expectations?

偉大的。謝謝。第二，Kim，我想跟進你開場時的一些評論，關於許可改進和第 871 號命令，以及不再需要等待五個月才能開始施工。當您綜合考慮所看到的這些改進時，這是否可以顯著加快一些大型專案的進度（相對於最初的預期）？

So the answer is it depends. So this is a -- on 871, it's one year, but they've got it out for notice and comment. And I think our expectation is that they likely make this permanent, but we'll just have to wait and see. And so right now, with respect to the one-year extension, not a lot of benefit for us. But if they make it permanent, then yes, there will be benefits to our major projects. And so it's going to depend and the reason it depends is it depends on the procurement schedule. And so when we get the pipe and when we get the compression.

所以答案是視情況而定。所以這是 - 對於 871 來說，已經是一年了，但他們已經將其發佈出來以供通知和評論。我認為我們的期望是他們可能會將此永久化，但我們只能拭目以待。因此，就目前而言，延長一年對我們來說沒有太多好處。但如果他們將其永久化，那麼我們的重大項目將受益。所以這將取決於採購計劃。當我們得到管道並得到壓縮。

So there are certain projects that we will be able to move up by five months and take advantage of and there are others that we won't. The other thing I'd say is on the prior notice. That's increased by 50%. So now it's $61 million. That means you don't have to file for a 7c for projects that are less than $61 million. So the permitting process is much quicker. And so we will definitely benefit from that increase in the prior notice limit.

因此，有些項目我們可以提前五個月完成並加以利用，但有些項目則不能。我想說的另一件事是事先通知。增加了50%。所以現在是 6100 萬美元。這意味著您不必為低於 6100 萬美元的項目申請 7c。因此許可流程要快得多。因此，我們肯定會從提前通知限額的增加中受益。

The other thing I'd say on the bigger projects is we've actually filed for a waiver for 871. So we're not waiting on the notice and comment period to be complete we've asked them to decide independently on our big projects all system for an MSX. And I think we view the likely outcome of that favorably at this point.

關於較大的項目我想說的另一件事是，我們實際上已經申請了 871 的豁免。因此，我們不會等待通知和評論期結束，我們已要求他們獨立決定我們的大型專案的所有系統是否採用 MSX。我認為我們現在對這一結果持樂觀態度。

Zack Van Everen, TPH.

扎克·範埃弗倫，TPH。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just going back to the Haynesville expansion real quick. Can you guys speak to the volume or capacity that you're adding there? And then is this mainly from your larger customers? Or are you seeing demand from some of the privates that feed your system as well?

嗨，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。快速回到 Haynesville 擴張。你們能說說你們在那裡增加的音量或容量嗎？那麼這主要來自您的大客戶嗎？或者您也看到了一些為您的系統提供服務的私人企業的需求？

It's both. So it's from the larger customers and it's from the private -- and somebody may be able to speak to the capacity. But I mean they are ramping up significantly. If you look at our supply numbers -- and, Tom, help me with this because you talk to the Board about this today, but we are expecting -- WoodMac is expecting a doubling in the production coming out of the Haynesville.

兩者都有。因此，它來自較大的客戶，也來自私人——有人可能能夠談論容量。但我的意思是他們正在大幅增加。如果你看看我們的供應數字——湯姆，請幫我解決這個問題，因為你今天與董事會討論了這個問題，但我們預計——WoodMac 預計 Haynesville 的產量將翻倍。

So I mean it's increasing by, I don't know, from 13 to 26 -- 26 by 2034. So I mean, that gives you a sense of the type of volumes that we are talking about.

所以我的意思是，到 2034 年，這個數字將從 13 增加到 26——26。所以我的意思是，這讓您了解我們正在談論的數量類型。

Got you. That makes sense. And then maybe one on the LNG side. I know Tennessee Gas feeds the Plaquemines facility and VG continues to talk about potential further expansion at that site. If they were to do that, does Tennessee Gas have the ability to expand more to feed LNG in that area?

明白了。這很有道理。然後也許還有一個在液化天然氣方面。我知道田納西天然氣公司為普拉克明設施供氣，而 VG 繼續談論該設施進一步擴建的可能性。如果他們這樣做，田納西天然氣公司是否有能力擴大規模以向該地區供應液化天然氣？

So first, if they were to do that, I think it further creates opportunities for us with these projects that we're bringing across. I think ultimately, it could -- Tennessee is already full in multiple directions, but we've got the bottleneck -- debottlenecking capability as we bring this incremental supply from West to East that I've been talking about in the last few calls. We talk about Texas Access project, which is kind of continuing on the theme. We talked about Trident that we talked about the header. And now we're actually extending into Texas to take volumes across the Louisiana. That helps debottleneck.

首先，如果他們這樣做，我認為這將為我們帶來的這些項目進一步創造機會。我認為最終是可以的——田納西州在多個方向上已經滿了，但是我們已經有了瓶頸——消除瓶頸的能力，因為我們將這種增量供應從西向東輸送，我在過去幾次電話會議中一直談到這一點。我們討論了德克薩斯州通道項目，這在某種程度上延續了這個主題。我們討論了三叉戟，也討論了頭部。現在我們實際上正在向德克薩斯州延伸，以將貨物運往路易斯安那州各地。這有助於消除瓶頸。

And so if Plaquemines were to further expand we would look at opportunities to bring incremental gas to the basin to that area from not only MSX, but some of our other -- from some of our other pipes in the area, including potentially looking at accessing the Haynesville in a different direction, right? And so when we talk about Gilles and kind of the directions that these pipes may have, one of those may be going that further eastward direction to kind of help fill that incremental need.

因此，如果 Plaquemines 進一步擴張，我們就會尋找機會將增量天然氣輸送到盆地，不僅透過 MSX，還透過我們在該地區的一些其他管道，包括可能考慮從不同的方向進入 Haynesville，對嗎？因此，當我們談論吉爾斯 (Gilles) 以及這些管道可能具有的方向時，其中一條管道可能會進一步向東延伸，以幫助滿足這種增量需求。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman），TD Cowen。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one I wanted to ask was on the Bakken, given the Outrigger deal has been closed for quite some time. I think you are at least six months and Double H is close to ramping up here on the conversion. So just wondering what the strategy is on gaining volumes there and kind of securing potentially higher rates that that region has to offer versus other basins.

嘿，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想問的第一個問題是關於巴肯的，因為 Outrigger 交易已經結束了一段時間。我認為至少已經六個月了，Double H 已經接近完成轉換了。所以我只是想知道在那裡增加產量並確保該地區比其他盆地提供更高的潛在利率的策略是什麼。

I'll take that. So one, the integration, as we talked about has gone well. We're looking at incremental network and bottlenecks to be able to gain further efficiencies out in the basin. But as far as it goes -- as far as Highland Express goes, we just continue to work with our customers there. I don't have anything to report on that. We're making progress, but nothing for this call.

我會接受的。因此，正如我們所談到的，整合進展順利。我們正在研究增量網路和瓶頸，以便能夠進一步提高盆地的效率。但就目前情況而言——就 Highland Express 而言，我們只是繼續與那裡的客戶合作。我對此沒有什麼可報告的。我們正在取得進展，但對於這通通話卻沒有任何進展。

Okay. And then just maybe longer-term question. You've talked a lot about the LNG growth on the US Gulf Coast and the boom it's been for your business. There is some concern that after this wave of capacity, there's going to be a potential oversupply in the market.

好的。然後也許只是長期問題。您多次談論美國墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣的成長以及它為您的業務帶來的繁榮。有人擔心，這一波產能擴張之後，市場可能會出現供應過剩的情況。

And I wonder if you're -- in your conversations with LNG customers, hearing anything around a potential slowdown in contracting or need for additional piping into future plants after this wave of capacity comes online or if your LNG customers really expect new builds to continue at pace through the decade and into the 2030s?

我想知道，在您與液化天然氣客戶的交談中，您是否聽過這樣的消息：在這一波產能上線後，承包速度可能會放緩，或者未來的工廠需要額外的管道，或者您的液化天然氣客戶是否真的預計新建項目將在未來十年乃至 2030 年代繼續保持這種速度？

I mean, from my perspective, I mean, we're not seeing -- and you can see this from what the LNG builders are announcing, which is they continue to announce new projects and sign new contracts. And we see -- we continue to see projects get announced and projects get expanded.

我的意思是，從我的角度來看，我們沒有看到——你可以從液化天然氣製造商宣布的內容中看到這一點，他們繼續宣布新項目並簽署新合約。我們看到——我們不斷看到項目被宣布並且項目得到擴展。

And I think part of the reason that you see that is it is a favorable environment right now to get projects built in the US, number one. Number two, I think that from a trade negotiation standpoint, it helps on the balance of payments and the whole tariff discussion to take gas from the US. So I mean, to date, we have not seen any slowdown in our discussions with these customers.

我認為，您看到這種情況的部分原因是，目前美國的環境有利於建設項目，這是第一點。第二，我認為從貿易談判的角度來看，從美國進口天然氣有助於國際收支平衡和整個關稅討論。所以我的意思是，到目前為止，我們與這些客戶的討論沒有任何放緩。

And, Tom, you might share your model that you showed the Board today in terms of overall growth in worldwide demand and the US portion of it.

湯姆，您可以分享您今天向董事會展示的模型，該模型涵蓋全球需求的整體成長以及美國所佔的比例。

Sure. I mean, as Richard alluded to in his comments, world demand is expected to grow by 25% between now and 2050. And much of that growth -- actually more than 25% will be filled in our view, and I think in the view from others in the market, with LNG. Most of that growth, as Rich said, is in Asia, basically areas where they don't have production. So it's going to have to be LNG that ultimately fills that hole.

當然。我的意思是，正如理查德在他的評論中提到的那樣，從現在到 2050 年，世界需求預計將增加 25%。我們認為，這一增長的大部分——實際上超過 25%——將由液化天然氣來滿足，我認為市場上其他人也這麼認為。正如里奇所說，大部分成長都發生在亞洲，基本上是他們沒有生產的地區。因此最終必須用液化天然氣來填補這個缺口。

And what we've seen so far is that the US, while the overall demand profile is growing, the US market share is growing as well. So it's almost a doubling effect of the benefits of having LNG infrastructure growing in the US. And I think that's for a few reasons. One, the rule of law here in the US as compared to other places around the world. There's a very advanced network within the US such that if there's ever a need to leave molecules back in the US and optimize those from a world price environment versus a domestic US environment, we have a great network of infrastructure here in the US to support that.

到目前為止，我們看到的是，美國的整體需求正在成長，美國的市場佔有率也在成長。因此，這幾乎是美國液化天然氣基礎設施建設效益的兩倍。我認為這有幾個原因。第一，美國的法治與世界其他地方相比更好。美國擁有非常先進的網絡，如果需要將分子留在美國，並在世界價格環境而非美國國內環境中對其進行優化，我們在美國擁有強大的基礎設施網絡來支持這一點。

And then I think the track record, I mean I think the developers in the US have done an extremely good job of being successful in getting projects online, timely and providing competitive rates, and we have a tremendous supply resource here in the US that I think gives customers internationally, a lot of comfort in knowing that there's going to be plenty of molecules behind these 20-year contracts that they signed with US developers and with customer -- midstream companies like us.

然後我認為，從過往記錄來看，美國的開發商在及時上線項目和提供有競爭力的價格方面做得非常出色，而且我們在美國擁有巨大的供應資源，我認為這讓國際客戶感到非常安心，因為他們知道，在與美國開發商和客戶（像我們這樣的中游公司）簽署的這些 20 年合同背後會有很多分子。

So I think the US is in a great place to continue to grow well north of what the overall global gas demand growth is up between now and 2050. So I think that means more to come beyond what we see in the immediate line of sight of projects.

因此，我認為從現在到 2050 年，美國天然氣需求成長動能將遠超全球整體天然氣需求成長。所以我認為這意味著我們將會看到更多超出我們眼前專案範圍的事情。

Brandon Bingham, Scotiabank

布蘭登‧賓厄姆，豐業銀行

Thanks for taking the questions. Just continuing on the LNG theme here. Could you maybe discuss some of the incremental opportunities you see maybe outside the Haynesville? And concurrently, which basin or basins do you expect to be sort of next on deck to meet all of that growth that you guys have been talking about?

感謝您回答這些問題。這裡繼續討論 LNG 主題。您能否討論一下您在海恩斯維爾以外看到的一些增量機會？同時，您預期哪個盆地或哪些盆地將成為下一個滿足您所談論的所有成長需求的盆地？

Yes, sure. So outside of the Haynesville, we've talked about this before. The Lean Eagle Ford is going to be important. One of the key themes that's kind of coming to surface is low nitrogen, the nitrogen quality of the gas. And as you think about LNG plant deficiencies, lower nitrogen equates to better production. So we think the Lean Eagle Ford is going to come into play, especially as it pertains to some of the Texas LNG facilities.

是的，當然。因此，在海恩斯維爾以外，我們之前已經討論過這個問題。精益鷹福特將會發揮重要作用。浮現的一個關鍵主題是低氮，即氣體的氮質量。當您考慮液化天然氣工廠的缺陷時，較低的氮含量意味著更好的產量。因此我們認為 Lean Eagle Ford 將發揮作用，特別是因為它與德克薩斯州的一些液化天然氣設施有關。

We've obviously got the Permian. When we think about the Utica and the Marcellus, given the constrained nature of the basin, it's going to be hard to get extra capacity out there. That being said, we are evaluating some opportunities to move incremental gas out of the Utica down South using our Tennessee network. And so that's in its early phases.

我們顯然已經得到了二疊紀。當我們考慮尤蒂卡河和馬塞勒斯河時，考慮到盆地的限制性質，很難在那裡獲得額外的容量。話雖如此，我們正在評估利用田納西州的網路將增量天然氣從尤蒂卡向南輸送的一些機會。目前這還處於早期階段。

It's going to take all of the above approach because it's not just the LNG folks that are looking for molecules, it's the power demand that we just talked about and it's also the existing organic LDC and the basic power that we've been talking about since January of 2024. All of that is going to be growing and needing access to molecules. So it's an all of the above basin approach.

它將採取上述所有方法，因為不僅僅是液化天然氣人員在尋找分子，還有我們剛才談到的電力需求，以及現有的有機 LDC 和我們自 2024 年 1 月以來一直在談論的基本電力。所有這些都將會生長並需要接觸分子。所以這是一種全上述盆地方法。

We've even talked about our Bakken egress project on the residue side, moving gas out west. I mean that's another example of something that's going to come into play as this demand kind of matures.

我們甚至討論了殘留物方面的巴肯出口項目，將天然氣輸送到西部。我的意思是，這是隨著需求逐漸成熟而發揮作用的另一個例子。

Okay. Great. And then maybe just on the full-year budget commentary regarding the EBITDA, reiterating the commentary there about exceeding by at least the Outrigger contribution. Could you discuss some of the areas you see outperforming expectations in 2H that sort of offset some of the lighter performance we've seen through 1H to kind of meet that expectation?

好的。偉大的。然後也許只是關於 EBITDA 的全年預算評論，重申關於至少超過 Outrigger 貢獻的評論。您能否討論一下您認為下半年哪些領域的表現超出預期，從而抵消上半年表現不佳的影響，從而達到預期？

The outperformance in the second half of the year, consistent with what we've seen in the first half of the year, really, natural gas capacity sales, the Outrigger acquisition contributions parking loan services on our natural gas business, the Jones Act tanker contributions, those are all some of the items that are contributing to the second half outperformance, and those are consistent with what we've seen in the first half. I would say there was a little bit of timing between the first quarter and the second quarter. We didn't see some of that show up in the first quarter, but out river particularly in some of the pals performance as well.

下半年的優異表現與我們上半年看到的情況一致，實際上，天然氣產能銷售、Outrigger 收購貢獻、我們天然氣業務的停車貸款服務、瓊斯法案油輪貢獻，這些都是促成下半年優異表現的一些因素，這些都與我們上半年看到的情況一致。我想說第一季和第二季之間有一點時間差。我們在第一季沒有看到這些表現，但在一些好朋友的表現中也看到了這些表現。

Harry Mateer, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的哈利馬蒂爾 (Harry Mateer)。

Good afternoon. David, earlier you made the point that most of the expected reconciliation bill benefits come from the treatment on depreciation, which I think makes sense is it doesn't look like the 30% of EBIT deductibility for interest was a material constraint for KMI. But having said that, does the expanded interest deductibility cause you to rethink anything on the financing your balance sheet side moving forward to take greater advantage of this tax benefits on interest expense down the road?

午安.大衛，你之前指出，預期的大部分對帳單收益來自於折舊處理，我認為這是有道理的，因為 30% 的 EBIT 利息扣除額似乎並不是 KMI 的重大限制因素。但話雖如此，擴大利息扣除額是否會讓您重新考慮為資產負債表方面融資，以便將來更好地利用利息支出的稅收優惠？

No, it really -- it's a good question, but no, it really doesn't. I think our financing strategy is pretty straightforward and simple. It's pretty plain vanilla. And we don't have a ton of external capital needs to fund our growth projects. We can fund $2.5 billion internally from cash flow that we generate as that EBITDA continues to grow -- that will continue to grow. And so we really just use our external financing strategy to refinance our maturing bonds and this tax reform won't influence that in our view.

不，這確實是一個好問題，但事實並非如此。我認為我們的融資策略非常直接和簡單。這是非常普通的香草味。而且我們並不需要大量的外部資本來資助我們的成長項目。隨著 EBITDA 的持續成長，我們可以從內部產生的現金流中籌集 25 億美元——EBITDA 還將繼續成長。因此，我們實際上只是使用外部融資策略來為到期債券進行再融資，而我們認為這項稅收改革不會對此產生影響。

Got it. All right. Thank you.

知道了。好的。謝謝。

Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I'll turn the call back over to you for any closing comments. Thank you.

謝謝。目前，我沒有其他問題。我會將電話轉回給您，以便您發表任何結束語。謝謝。

Thank you very much. Have a good evening.

非常感謝。祝您晚上愉快。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may go ahead and disconnect at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以繼續並斷開連接。