Kirby Corp (KEX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Kirby Corporation 2024 fourth quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Kirby Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kurt Niemietz. Kirby's Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給庫爾特·尼米茨先生。柯比 (Kirby) 的投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining the Kirby Corporation 2024 fourth quarter earnings call. With me today are David Grzebinski, Kirby's Chief Executive Officer; Christian O'Neil, Kirby's President and Chief Operating Officer; and Raj Kumar, Kirby's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. A slide presentation for today's conference call as well as the earnings release, which was issued earlier today can be found on our website.

早安，感謝您參加 Kirby Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起的是 Kirby 的執行長 David Grzebinski； Kirby 總裁兼營運長 Christian O’Neil；以及 Kirby 執行副總裁兼財務長 Raj Kumar。今天的電話會議的幻燈片演示以及今天早些時候發布的收益報告可以在我們的網站上找到。

During this conference call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings press release and are also available on our website in the Investor Relations section.

在本次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則或調整後的財務指標。非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳包含在我們的收益新聞稿中，也可在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分查閱。

As a reminder, statements contained in this conference call with respect to the future are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management's reasonable judgment with respect to future events.

提醒一下，本次電話會議有關未來的陳述均為前瞻性陳述。這些聲明反映了管理階層對未來事件的合理判斷。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated as a result of various factors. A list of these risk factors can be found in Kirby's latest Form 10-K filing and in our other filings made with the SEC from time to time.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，由於各種因素，我們的實際結果可能與預期結果有重大差異。這些風險因素的清單可以在 Kirby 最新的 10-K 表格文件以及我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中找到。

I will now turn the call over to David.

現在我將電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Kurt, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, we announced fourth quarter GAAP earnings per share of $0.74, which included a onetime charge of $0.74 related to a noncash write-down of inventory in our distribution businesses, which was partially offset by a onetime credit for a change in Louisiana tax law of $0.19. Excluding these onetime items, which Raj will provide more detail on later, adjusted earnings for the quarter were $1.29 per share.

謝謝你，庫爾特，大家早安。今天早些時候，我們宣布第四季度 GAAP 每股收益為 0.74 美元，其中包括與我們分銷業務中非現金庫存減記相關的 0.74 美元的一次性費用，但因路易斯安那州稅法變更而計入的 0.19 美元的一次性抵免部分抵消了這一費用。除這些一次性項目外（Raj 稍後將提供更多詳細資訊），本季調整後每股收益為 1.29 美元。

Our fourth quarter results reflected some seasonal softness in both Marine Transportation and in distribution and services as we experienced weather and navigation challenges for marine and typical seasonal slowness in activity in distribution and services. These headwinds were offset by good execution from our teams in both segments during the quarter, and that drove strong year-over-year financial performance with adjusted earnings per share up 24% year over year.

我們的第四季業績反映了海運以及分銷和服務領域的一些季節性疲軟，因為我們遇到了海運的天氣和航行挑戰以及分銷和服務活動的典型季節性放緩。本季度，我們兩個部門的團隊表現出色，抵消了這些不利因素的影響，並推動了強勁的同比財務業績，調整後每股收益同比增長 24%。

We also generated over $151 million of free cash flow in the quarter, which was used to further strengthen our balance sheet by paying down $105 million in debt and to buy back $33 million of stock. We ended the year on a good note, and we anticipate strong growth in 2025.

本季我們也產生了超過 1.51 億美元的自由現金流，用於償還 1.05 億美元的債務和回購 3,300 萬美元的股票，進一步增強我們的資產負債表。我們以良好的業績結束了這一年，並預計 2025 年將實現強勁增長。

In inland marine transportation, we experienced normal headwinds from poor operating conditions and a slight slowdown in some trade lanes during the quarter. From a demand standpoint, refinery activity dipped in the early part of the quarter. However, activity began to pick up and tighten utility as we exited the quarter.

在內陸海運方面，我們在本季度經歷了由於運營條件不佳而導致的正常逆風以及部分貿易航線的略有放緩。從需求角度來看，本季初煉油活動有所下降。然而，當我們退出該季度時，活動開始回升並收緊效用。

Overall, our barge utilization rates averaged in the 90% range for the quarter. Spot prices were flat to slightly down sequentially, but we're up in the high single-digit range year over year. More importantly, our term contract renewals were in line with our expectations with high single-digit increases versus a year ago. Fourth quarter inland operating margins were approximately 20%.

整體而言，本季我們的駁船利用率平均在 90% 左右。現貨價格較上月持平或略有下降，但同比則上漲了高個位數。更重要的是，我們的定期合約續約符合我們的預期，與一年前相比實現了高個位數的成長。第四季內陸營業利益率約20%。

In coastal, market fundamentals remained steady with our barge utilization levels running in the mid- to high 90% range. During the quarter, stable customer demand, combined with a continued limited availability of large capacity vessels resulted in mid- to high 20% year-over-year increases on term contract renewals and average spot market rates that increased in the low teens range year over year. Planned shipyards impacted the quarter with fourth quarter coastal revenues increasing only 6% year over year, with an operating margin in the low teens.

在沿海地區，市場基本面保持穩定，我們的駁船利用率約為 90%。本季度，穩定的客戶需求加上大容量船舶的持續有限供應，導致定期合約續約量同比增長 20% 左右，而平均現貨市場價格同比增長了 15% 左右。計畫中的造船廠對本季產生了影響，第四季沿海收入年增 6%，營業利潤率僅為百分之十幾。

Turning to distribution and services. demand was mixed across our end markets with growth in some areas offset by Clovis or delays in others. In Power Generation, total revenues grew 16% sequentially and 36% year over year. The pace of orders was strong, adding to our backlog with several large project wins from major backup power and industrial customers as the need for power remains critical.

轉向分銷和服務。我們各個終端市場的需求好壞參半，有些地區的成長被克洛維斯或其他地區的延誤所抵銷。在發電方面，總收入較上季成長 16%，較去年同期成長 36%。訂單速度很快，由於電力需求仍然迫切，我們從主要備用電源和工業客戶那裡贏得了幾個大型項目，增加了我們的積壓訂單。

In oil and gas, revenues were down 38% year over year and 24% sequentially, driven by a very soft conventional oil and gas business. This was partially offset by some growth in our e-frac business. In our commercial and industrial market, even though revenues were down 7% year over year, driven by softness in on-highway truck service and repair, operating income was up 28% year over year due to favorable product mix and ongoing cost control initiatives.

在石油和天然氣領域，由於傳統石油和天然氣業務非常疲軟，營收年減 38%，季減 24%。這被我們的電子壓裂業務的一些成長部分抵消了。在我們的商業和工業市場，儘管受公路卡車服務和維修疲軟的影響，收入同比下降了 7%，但由於有利的產品組合和持續的成本控制舉措，營業收入同比增長了 28%。

In summary, while our fourth quarter results were challenged by temporary seasonal issues, the underlying market fundamentals for both segments remain positive. So far in the first quarter, we have seen inland utility improve, which is helping firm up spot prices overall, with rates in some trade lanes starting to push higher.

總而言之，雖然我們的第四季業績受到暫時季節性問題的挑戰，但兩個部門的潛在市場基本面仍然保持積極。到目前為止，在第一季度，我們已經看到內陸公用事業有所改善，這有助於整體現貨價格的走高，一些貿易航線的運價開始走高。

In coastal, industry-wide supply demand dynamics look very favorable for the years to come. Our barge utilization is strong, and we are realizing strong rate increases. In distribution and services, demand continues to grow for our power generation and is mostly offsetting softness in the legacy oil and gas arena. All in all, we have a very favorable outlook for our business as we look into the coming year.

在沿海地區，未來幾年全產業的供需動態看起來非常有利。我們的駁船利用率很高，而且我們正在實現強勁的運價成長。在分銷和服務方面，對我們的發電的需求持續增長，並在很大程度上抵消了傳統石油和天然氣領域的疲軟。總而言之，展望來年，我們對我們的業務前景非常樂觀。

I'll talk more about our outlook later, but first, I'll turn the call over to Raj to discuss the fourth quarter segment results and the balance sheet.

我稍後會詳細談論我們的展望，但首先，我將把電話轉給 Raj，討論第四季度的分部業績和資產負債表。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Marine Transportation segment revenues were $467 million and operating income was $86 million with an operating margin around 18%. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, total marine revenues, inland and coastal combined increased 3% and operating income increased 26%.

謝謝你，大衛，大家早安。2024 年第四季，海運運輸部門營收為 4.67 億美元，營業收入為 8,600 萬美元，營業利潤率約 18%。與 2023 年第四季相比，內陸和沿海地區的海上總收入成長了 3%，營業收入成長了 26%。

Total marine revenues decreased by 4% compared to the third quarter of 2024. The weather and lock delays meaningfully impacted our operations at the beginning of winter weather, combined with lock maintenance of a few high-traffic trade routes drove a 30% sequential increase in delay days during the fourth quarter.

與 2024 年第三季相比，海運總收入下降了 4%。冬季開始時，天氣和船閘延誤對我們的營運產生了嚴重影響，再加上一些高流量貿易路線的船閘維護，導致第四季度延誤天數環比增加了 30%。

Looking at the inland business in more detail. The inland business contributed approximately 82% of segment revenue. Average barge utilization was in the 90% range for the quarter, which was in line with the fourth quarter of 2023 as well as the third quarter of 2024.

更詳細地了解內陸業務。內陸業務貢獻了分部收入的約82%。本季駁船平均利用率在 90% 左右，與 2023 年第四季以及 2024 年第三季持平。

Long-term inland marine transportation contracts or those contracts with a term of one year or longer, contributed approximately 65% of revenue, with 63% from time charters and 37% from contracts of affreightment. Slower market conditions early in the quarter contributed to spot market rates that were flat to slightly down sequentially but increased in the high single-digit range year over year.

長期內河運輸合約或期限為一年或一年以上的合約貢獻了約65%的收入，其中63%來自定期租船合同，37%來自包運合約。本季初市場狀況較慢，導致現貨市場價格環比持平或略有下降，但同比卻出現了高個位數的成長。

In contrast, our term contracts that renewed during the fourth quarter were up on average in the high single-digit range compared to the prior year. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, inland revenues increased 3%, primarily due to higher term and spot contract pricing. Inland revenues decreased 3% compared to the third quarter of 2024.

相比之下，我們第四季度續約的定期合約與上年相比平均成長了個位數。與 2023 年第四季相比，國內收入成長了 3%，這主要是由於定期和現貨合約定價上漲。與 2024 年第三季相比，國內收入下降了 3%。

Inland operating margins were right around 20%, driven by the benefit of higher pricing and ongoing cost management which help blunt lingering inflationary pressures. Margins fell sequentially as expected, given the challenging operating conditions caused mainly by weather and lock delays and seasonal softness in refinery activity we experienced in the early part of the quarter.

國內營業利潤率約為20%，這得益於更高的定價和持續的成本管理，有助於緩解持續的通膨壓力。由於本季度初我們經歷了天氣和船閘延誤以及煉油活動季節性疲軟等嚴峻的經營條件，利潤率如預期環比下降。

Now moving to the coastal business. Coastal revenues increased 6% year over year driven by higher contract prices that were partially offset by an increase in shipyards. Overall, coastal had an operating margin in the low teens range, benefiting from higher pricing and partially offset by shipyard timing.

現轉向沿海業務。由於合約價格上漲，沿海收入年增 6%，但被造船廠數量的增加部分抵銷。總體而言，沿海地區的營業利潤率處於低十幾個百分點的水平，這得益於較高的定價，並部分抵消了船廠時機的影響。

Given the high number of planned shipyards on the schedule, the margin headwind from shipyard is expected to linger into the first quarter of 2025 before improving as we move through the balance of 2025. The coastal business represented 18% of revenues for the Marine Transportation segment.

鑑於計劃中的造船廠數量眾多，預計造船廠的利潤率逆風將持續到 2025 年第一季度，然後隨著 2025 年餘下時間的推進而有所改善。沿海業務佔海上運輸部門收入的18%。

Average coastal barge utilization was in the mid- to high 90% range which improved from both the fourth quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024. During the quarter, the percentage of coastal revenue under term contracts was approximately 100% of which 99% were time charters. Average spot market rates were up in the low teens range year over year and renewals of term contract prices were higher in the mid to high 20% range on average year over year.

沿海駁船的平均利用率在 90% 左右，較 2023 年第四季和 2024 年第三季均有所改善。本季度，沿海定期合約項下的收入比例約為 100%，其中 99% 為定期租船。平均現貨市場價格較去年同期上漲了 10% 以下，而定期合約續約價格則年增了 20% 左右。

With respect to our tank barge fleet for both the inland and coastal businesses, we have provided a reconciliation of the changes in the fourth quarter as well as outlook for the full year of 2025. This is included in our earnings call presentation posted on our website.

對於我們用於內陸和沿海業務的油駁船隊，我們已經提供了第四季度的變化對帳以及 2025 年全年的展望。這包含在我們網站上發布的收益電話會議簡報中。

At the end of the fourth quarter, the inland fleet had 1,094 badges, representing 24.2 million barrels of capacity and is expected to increase slightly in 2025. Coastal Marine is expected to remain unchanged for the year.

截至第四季末，內陸船隊擁有 1,094 個船徽，代表運力 2,420 萬桶，預計 2025 年將略有增加。預計今年 Coastal Marine 將維持不變。

Now I'll review the performance of the Distribution and Services segment. Total segment revenues for the fourth quarter of 2024 were $336 million with an operating income of $27 million and an operating margin of 8%. During the fourth quarter of 2024, the company recorded a $56.3 million noncash inventory impairment charge in the Distribution and Services segment, primarily related to weak market conditions for conventional diesel fracturing equipment.

現在我將回顧一下分銷和服務部門的表現。2024 年第四季分部總營收為 3.36 億美元，營業收入為 2,700 萬美元，營業利潤率為 8%。2024 年第四季度，該公司在分銷和服務部門記錄了 5,630 萬美元的非現金庫存減損費用，主要與傳統柴油壓裂設備的市場狀況疲軟有關。

This was based on current market conditions and our view on the industry outlook, which includes decreased customer demand for conventional diesel fracturing equipment driven by an industry-wide shift to electric fracturing equipment. As such, the company determined that certain inventory had limited commercial opportunity and the carrying value of these inventories were accordingly adjusted.

這是基於當前的市場狀況和我們對行業前景的看法，其中包括由於全行業向電動壓裂設備的轉變導致客戶對傳統柴油壓裂設備的需求下降。因此，該公司確定某些存貨的商業機會有限，並相應調整了這些存貨的帳面價值。

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, the Distribution and Services segment revenue decreased 3%, while operating income decreased 7% due to lower revenues and mix. When compared to the third quarter of 2024, segment revenues decreased by 3% and operating income decreased by 12%. Moving to the segment in more detail.

與 2023 年第四季相比，分銷和服務部門收入下降 3%，而由於收入和產品組合下降，營業收入下降 7%。與 2024 年第三季相比，分部收入下降 3%，營業收入下降 12%。更詳細地介紹該部分。

In power generation, our revenues tied to industrial end markets were up 38% year over year. We continue to see significant power generation orders resulting in higher backlog from backup power, data centers and other industrial applications.

在發電方面，我們與工業終端市場相關的收入年增38％。我們繼續看到大量的發電訂單，導致備用電源、資料中心和其他工業應用的積壓訂單增加。

Our power generation revenues tied to the energy space were up 160% sequentially and 34% year over year as some shipments caught up from previously delayed product orders. Altogether, total power generation revenues were up 36% year over year and operating -- with operating margins in the high single digits. Power generation represented 39% of total segment revenues.

由於部分貨物趕上了先前延遲的產品訂單，我們與能源領域相關的發電收入環比增長 160%，年增 34%。整體而言，總發電收入年增 36%，營業利潤率達到高個位數。發電業務佔部門總收入的39%。

On the commercial and industrial side, steady activity in marine repair partially offset lower activity in other areas, particularly on-highway truck service. As a result, Commercial and Industrial revenues were down 7% year over year. Even though revenues in C&I were down year over year, favorable product mix and ongoing cost savings initiatives drove a 28% year-over-year increase in operating income.

在商業和工業方面，船舶修理業的穩定活動部分抵消了其他領域活動的下降，特別是公路卡車服務。結果，商業和工業收入比去年同期下降了 7%。儘管商業與工業部門的收入同比下降，但良好的產品組合和持續的成本節約措施推動營業收入年增 28%。

C&I made up 45% of segment revenues and had operating margins in the high single digits. In the oil and gas market, we continue to see softness in legacy conventional frac-related equipment as lower rig counts and lower fracking activity tempered demand for new engines, transmissions, service and parts throughout the quarter.

C&I 佔部門收入的 45%，營業利潤率達到高個位數。在石油和天然氣市場，我們繼續看到傳統常規壓裂相關設備的疲軟，因為鑽機數量減少和水力壓裂活動減少抑制了整個季度對新引擎、變速箱、服務和零件的需求。

This softness is being partially offset by solid execution on backlog and new orders of e-frac related equipment. Revenues in oil and gas were down 38% year over year and 24% sequentially while operating income was down 58% year over year and 31% sequentially.

這種疲軟在一定程度上被電子壓裂相關設備積壓訂單和新訂單的穩健執行所抵消。石油和天然氣業務收入年減 38%，季減 24%，營業收入較去年同期下降 58%，季減 31%。

Oil and gas represented 16% of segment revenue in the fourth quarter and had operating margins in the mid- to high single digits. Now I'll turn to the balance sheet. As of December 31, we had $74 million of cash with total debt of around $875 million and our debt-to-cap ratio improved to 20.7%.

石油和天然氣業務佔第四季分部收入的 16%，營業利潤率處於中高個位數。現在我來看一下資產負債表。截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 7,400 萬美元現金，總債務約 8.75 億美元，我們的債務與資本比率改善至 20.7%。

During the quarter, we had net cash flow from operating activities of around $247 million. Fourth quarter cash flow from operations benefited from a working capital reduction of approximately $82 million. We used cash flow and cash on hand to fund $97 million of capital expenditures or CapEx primarily related to maintenance of marine equipment.

本季度，我們經營活動產生的淨現金流約為 2.47 億美元。第四季經營活動現金流受惠於約 8,200 萬美元的營運資本減少。我們利用現金流量和庫存現金來資助 9,700 萬美元的資本支出或主要與船舶設備維護相關的 CapEx。

Free cash flow generation during the quarter was just over $150 million. We used $33 million to repurchase stock at an average price of $116 and reduced our debt by around $105 million, further strengthening our balance sheet.

本季產生的自由現金流略高於 1.5 億美元。我們用 3,300 萬美元以平均 116 美元的價格回購股票，並減少了約 1.05 億美元的債務，進一步增強了我們的資產負債表。

As of December 31, we had total available liquidity of approximately $583 million. For all of 2024, we generated cash flow from operations of $756 million, driven by higher revenue and earnings. We still see some supply constraints, especially in the power generation space, posing some headwinds to managing working capital in the near term.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們可用的流動資金總額約為 5.83 億美元。2024 年全年，受收入和收益成長的推動，我們的經營活動現金流達到 7.56 億美元。我們仍然看到一些供應限制，特別是在發電領域，這對短期內管理營運資金構成一些阻力。

Having said that, our teams executed well throughout 2024, and we unwound $93 million of working capital for the year. With respect to CapEx, our total capital spending was $343 million for 2024. Approximately $230 million was associated with marine maintenance capital and improvements to existing inland and coastal marine equipment and facility improvements. Approximately $110 million was associated with growth capital spending in both of our businesses.

話雖如此，我們的團隊在 2024 年全年表現良好，並且我們在這一年釋放了 9,300 萬美元的營運資金。就資本支出而言，我們 2024 年的總資本支出為 3.43 億美元。約 2.3 億美元用於海洋維護資本以及現有內陸和沿海海洋設備和設施的改進。我們兩項業務的成長資本支出約為 1.1 億美元。

For 2025, we expect CapEx to fall into the $280 million to $320 million range. Altogether, we generated $414 million of free cash flow for the year, which exceeded the high end of our guidance driven in part by favorable working capital release. We expect 2025 to be another good year for free cash flow generation.

到 2025 年，我們預計資本支出將降至 2.8 億美元至 3.2 億美元之間。總體而言，我們今年創造了 4.14 億美元的自由現金流，超過了我們預期的上限，部分原因是有利的營運資本釋放。我們預計 2025 年將是自由現金流產生的另一個豐收年。

As always, we are committed to a balanced capital allocation approach and we'll use this cash flow to return capital to shareholders and continue to pursue long-term value-creating investment and acquisition opportunities.

像往常一樣，我們致力於平衡的資本配置方式，並將利用這筆現金流向股東返還資本，並繼續尋求長期創造價值的投資和收購機會。

I will now turn the call back to David to discuss our 2025 outlook.

現在我將把電話轉回給戴維，討論我們的 2025 年展望。

Thank you, Raj. While we manage through challenging operating conditions in the fourth quarter, we ended in a very strong position in our businesses. Refinery activity is starting to increase. Our barge utilization is improving in inland and spot rates are beginning to pick back up.

謝謝你，拉傑。儘管我們在第四季經歷了嚴峻的經營環境，但我們的業務最終仍保持著非常強勁的地位。煉油廠活動開始增加。我們的內陸駁船利用率正在提高，現貨價格開始回升。

While we expect typical seasonal weather conditions to propose some near-term headwinds in the first quarter and high levels of shipyard activity to linger near term and coastal our outlook in the marine market remains strong for the full year.

雖然我們預計典型的季節性天氣條件將在第一季帶來一些短期阻力，並且高水準的造船廠活動將在短期內和沿海地區持續存在，但我們對全年海洋市場的前景仍然強勁。

In distribution and services, demand is expected to remain mixed across our products and services and our actions taken over the past few years to limit volatility of this segment are paying off. For D&S, we expect flat to slightly lower results for the segment despite a very tough oil and gas market.

在分銷和服務方面，預計我們產品和服務的需求將保持混合，過去幾年我們為限制該領域波動而採取的行動正在取得成效。對於 D&S 而言，儘管石油和天然氣市場情況十分嚴峻，我們預計該部門的業績將持平或略有下降。

For Kirby overall, we expect our businesses combined. We'll deliver another strong year of financial growth in 2025, with a 15% to 25% increase year over year in earnings per share. Moving to specific detail on the segments.

對於 Kirby 整體而言，我們預計我們的業務將合併。2025 年，我們將再次實現強勁的財務成長，每股盈餘將年增 15% 至 25%。轉向各個部分的具體細節。

In inland marine, we anticipate positive market dynamics due to limited new barge construction. The demand softening we saw in the refinery sector in the fourth quarter has improved and barge utilization rates are firming up. We expect our barge utilization rates to be in the low to mid-90% range for the year with continued improvement in term contract pricing as renewals occur throughout the year.

在內陸航運方面，由於新駁船建造數量有限，我們預期市場動態將呈現正面態勢。我們看到煉油業在第四季的需求疲軟趨勢已經改善，駁船利用率正在上升。我們預計今年的駁船利用率將在 90% 的低點至中位數區間，隨著全年續簽，定期合約定價將繼續改善。

However, we continue to see inflationary pressures, and there remains an acute mariner shortage in the industry, which continues to drive up labor costs. These pressures, along with the increasing cost of equipment should continue to put upward pressure on spot and contract pricing.

然而，我們繼續看到通膨壓力，而該行業仍然面臨嚴重的海員短缺問題，這繼續推高了勞動力成本。這些壓力加上設備成本的增加將繼續對現貨和合約價格造成上行壓力。

Overall, inland revenues are expected to grow in the mid- to high single-digit range for the full year. As we usually see, normal seasonal winter weather has started and is expected to be a headwind in revenues and margins in the first quarter.

整體來看，預計全年國內收入將維持中高個位數成長。正如我們通常看到的那樣，正常的季節性冬季天氣已經開始，預計將對第一季的收入和利潤造成阻力。

However, we expect operating margins will gradually improve during the year with the first quarter being the lowest and the average for the full year, up 200 to 300 basis points. In coastal, market conditions remain favorable and supply and demand remained balanced across the industry fleet. Steady customer demand is expected to keep our barge utilization in the mid-90% range.

不過，我們預期年內營業利潤率將逐步提高，第一季的利潤率最低，全年平均利潤率將上漲 200 至 300 個基點。在沿海地區，市場條件依然良好，整個產業船隊的供需保持平衡。穩定的客戶需求預計將使我們的駁船利用率保持在 90% 左右。

Revenues for the full year are expected to increase in the high single to low double-digit range compared to 2024, driven by higher pricing on contracts. Coastal operating margins are expected to be in the mid-teens range on a full year basis with the first quarter the lowest due to weather in a high number of planned shipyards.

受合約定價上漲的推動，預計全年收入將比 2024 年增長高個位數至低兩位數。預計沿海地區全年營業利潤率將在 15% 左右，其中第一季利潤率最低，原因是大量計劃中的船廠受到天氣影響。

In the Distribution and Services segment, we see mixed results as near-term volatility driven by supply issues, customers deferring maintenance and lower overall levels of activity in oil and gas is partially offset by orders for power generation. In commercial and industrial, the demand outlook in marine repair remains steady, while on-highway service and repair remains weak in the current environment, although the on-highway market feels close to bottoming from the trucking recession.

在分銷和服務領域，我們看到業績好壞參半，因為供應問題、客戶推遲維護以及石油和天然氣整體活動水平下降導致了短期波動，但發電訂單部分抵消了這一影響。在商業和工業領域，船舶維修的需求前景保持穩定，而在當前環境下，公路服務和維修仍然疲軟，儘管公路市場感覺已接近卡車運輸衰退的底部。

In oil and gas, we expect revenues to be down in the high single to low double-digit range as the shift away from conventional frac to e-frac continues to take place and customers continue to maintain considerable capital discipline.

在石油和天然氣領域，隨著從傳統壓裂到電子壓裂的轉變持續進行，且客戶繼續保持嚴格的資本紀律，我們預計收入將下降至高個位數至低兩位數。

In power generation, we anticipate continued strong growth in orders at data center demand and the need for backup power is very strong. We expect extended lead times for certain OEM products to continue contributing to a volatile delivery schedule of new products throughout 2025. Overall, the company expects total segment revenues to be flat to slightly down for the full year with operating margins in the high single digits, but slightly lower year over year.

在發電方面，我們預計資料中心需求訂單將持續強勁成長，並且對備用電源的需求非常強勁。我們預計，某些 OEM 產品的交貨時間延長將繼續導致 2025 年全年新產品交付計劃不穩定。總體而言，該公司預計全年總分部收入將持平或略有下降，營業利潤率將達到高個位數，但年比略有下降。

To conclude, overall, 2024 was a record year for earnings, and we have a favorable outlook as we look to this year and beyond. A lack of meaningful new build of equipment in marine has supply and check and we continue to receive new orders for power generation equipment as we manage through supply issues.

總而言之，整體而言，2024 年是獲利創紀錄的一年，我們對今年及以後的前景持樂觀態度。船舶供應和檢查方面缺乏有意義的新設備建造，我們在解決供應問題的過程中繼續收到發電設備的新訂單。

Our balance sheet is strong, and we expect to generate significant free cash flow in 2025. We expect our businesses will produce solid financial results in 2025 with higher margins and strong earnings growth for the year, and we see good fundamentals continuing as we look out to the next few years.

我們的資產負債表強勁，我們預計 2025 年將產生大量自由現金流。我們預計，我們的業務將在 2025 年實現穩健的財務業績，利潤率更高，全年盈利增長強勁，而且展望未來幾年，我們預計良好的基本面將繼續保持。

Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. Christian, Raj and I are ready now to take questions.

接線員，我們的準備好的發言到此結束。克里斯蒂安、拉吉和我現在準備好回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

（操作員指示）丹尼爾·伊姆布羅，史蒂芬斯。

This is [Reed] on for Daniel. I just want to first look at pricing. When we look at the puts and takes here so far in the first quarter, we have difficult weather, some better refinery activity. Can you talk about all the puts and takes and what is driving that improved pricing?

這是 [Reed] 為 Daniel 主持的。我只是想先看看價格。當我們查看第一季迄今為止的買賣情況時，我們會發現天氣狀況較差，但煉油廠活動有所改善。您能談談所有的利弊以及推動價格上漲的因素嗎？

And once we move past this difficult weather, what gives you the confidence that we can continue to get strong pricing through the year? Along with maybe some update on the competitive trends you're expecting in 2025.

一旦我們度過了這段艱難的時期，你怎麼能相信我們能在今年繼續保持強勁的價格？或許還會有一些關於您預期的 2025 年競爭趨勢的更新。

Sure. Reed, thanks for the question. Chris and I'll tag team this a bit. But look, we did see a little -- as Christian will tell you, a speed bump in the fourth quarter, we saw utility pull back a little bit as refiners cut back. I think utility got down into the 90%, right around 90% range.

當然。里德，謝謝你的提問。克里斯和我會合作完成這件事。但你看，我們確實看到了一點——正如克里斯蒂安會告訴你的那樣，第四季度出現了一個減速帶，我們看到隨著煉油商削減開支，公用事業略有回落。我認為實用性已經降到了 90% 左右。

We saw spot pricing weaken a little bit for us. It was down 0% to 2%. That is all abated now where our utilities up. But Christian can share some recent utility numbers. The refineries are back that speed bump went away.

我們發現現貨價格略有下降。下降了 0% 至 2%。現在，我們的公用事業費用已經上漲，這一切都已減輕。但克里斯蒂安可以分享一些最近的實用數據。煉油廠已經恢復運營，減速帶已經消失。

So we are very tight in terms of supply and demand right now. And that, as you know, drives pricing. And Christian will give you a little more color on that. Why don't you go ahead and do that, Christian, and I'll circle back on the other part of the question.

因此，我們目前的供需非常緊張。如你所知，這會影響定價。克里斯蒂安將會對此進行更詳細的解釋。克里斯蒂安，你為什麼不繼續這樣做呢，然後我再回到問題的另一部分。

Yes, sir. Thanks, David. You saw the typical winter weather patterns that tend to affect Q4 and Q1. Funnel passages, fog, maybe a little ice format on the Illinois River. And around the election, I think David characterized it well.

是的，先生。謝謝，大衛。您看到了往往會影響第四季和第一季的典型冬季天氣模式。伊利諾伊河上有漏斗狀通道、霧氣、或許還有少量冰層。圍繞著選舉，我認為大衛很好地描述了這一點。

We saw -- but we began to talk about in-house here as a speed bump. However, as the election played out and people got back to work, the holiday season was a bit long with the way the holidays fell. We saw some trading activity slowdown. I can tell you today, as a snapshot in time standing here, we have seen utility recover. We have seen spot pricing recover very nicely, and so that's why we characterize it as a speed bump.

我們看到了——但我們開始在這裡討論內部問題，將其視為一個減速帶。然而，隨著選舉的結束和人們重返工作崗位，假期的安排使得假期變得有點長。我們發現一些交易活動有所放緩。今天我可以告訴你們，作為時間的快照，我們已經看到公用事業的復甦。我們看到現貨價格恢復得非常好，這就是為什麼我們將其描述為減速帶。

We did see a bit of a softness in refining activity in some of our core refiners. However, I can tell you today, looking at the numbers we're seeing it rebound back nicely in Q1.

我們確實看到一些核心煉油廠的煉油活動有些疲軟。不過，我今天可以告訴你，從數據來看，我們在第一季看到了強勁反彈。

Yes. And really, the second part is weather. Look, weather does help tighten up utility, Usually, we get a couple of percent extra utility with weather. We don't always get paid for that extra utility then that's why it impacts the margin. But look, first quarter is always our lowest in terms of margin on the inland side.

是的。實際上，第二部分是天氣。看起來，天氣確實有助於提高效用，通常，天氣會使我們獲得百分之幾的額外效用。我們並不總是能因為額外的效用而得到報酬，這就是它影響利潤的原因。但是你看，第一季的內陸利潤率總是最低的。

I think the big picture is don't focus on the first quarter, focus on what we're telling you for the full year in terms of in the margins. And we've said they'll be up 200 to 300 basis points. We're pretty excited about where we are. Christian is being modest. I mean, we were, I think, the last week or so, we've been at 95%, 96%.

我認為，總體而言，不要只專注於第一季度，而是要關注我們告訴您的全年利潤情況。我們說過利率將上漲 200 到 300 個基點。我們對於目前的狀況感到非常興奮。克里斯蒂安很謙虛。我的意思是，我想，大約在過去一周，我們的完成率已經達到了 95%、96%。

I think we even bumped 97% utility, which is for us, sold out. So even if weather starts to get better and that comes down a couple of percent from better weather, we'll still be really tight in terms of utility. That's why we're so constructive about the pricing environment, and that's all driven by supply and demand. I mean there's not a lot of new supply and demands back after that little speed month we had in the first quarter -- or the fourth quarter.

我認為我們的實用性甚至達到了 97%，對我們來說，已經銷售一空。因此，即使天氣開始好轉，並且比好轉時下降幾個百分點，我們的效用仍然會非常緊張。這就是我們對定價環境如此看好的原因，而這一切都是由供需關係所驅動的。我的意思是，在第一季或第四季經歷了短暫的成長之後，新的供應和需求並沒有太多回升。

And I would just add to that, David, we had a nice term renewal cycle in Q4. You'll begin to see that pay dividends in 2025 as we referenced on the conference call. Those term contracts that were new in the fourth quarter, high single digits year over year, and you'll have that momentum going into 2025 as well.

我想補充一點，大衛，我們在第四季有一個好的續約週期。正如我們在電話會議中提到的，您將在 2025 年開始看到回報。第四季新簽訂的定期合約年增了個位數，這種勢頭在 2025 年仍將持續。

Very helpful. Just shifting to the cost side. You talked about mariner wage inflation and equipment inflation. Do you have an expectation for 2025 and where you see that going?

非常有幫助。只是轉向成本方面。您談到了海員工資通膨和設備通膨。您對 2025 年有什麼期望？

Yes. No, I'm glad you brought that up, Reed. That's another reason spot pricing is going to go up this year. We have inflation. Inflation -- a lot of discussion in the economy these days.

是的。不，我很高興你提起這件事，里德。這是今年現貨價格上漲的另一個原因。我們有通貨膨脹。通貨膨脹－是最近人們在經濟領域討論的熱門話題。

And we see it the industry, not just Kirby, it's very tight on mariners we have a slight advantage because we have our own school and we produce our own mariners. But it is very tight. And so that's obviously putting wage inflation into the picture.

我們看到，不只是柯比，整個產業對水手的需求都非常緊張，但我們略有優勢，因為我們有自己的學校，我們培養自己的水手。但它非常緊。這顯然將工資通膨考慮在內。

But the inflation is more broad-based than just that, and I'm not talking about the price of eggs, which seems to get a lot of attention these days. It's the shipyards, the shipyards that we use day in and day out they're busy, one, two, they have the same labor constraints.

但通貨膨脹的影響範圍遠不止於此，我說的並不是雞蛋價格，最近雞蛋價格似乎受到了廣泛關注。我們日復一日使用的造船廠非常繁忙，一、二，它們都有相同的勞動力限制。

They used to run three shifts, 24/7, and they're having problems filling out that last shift. So they've got some labor pressure, things like radars and anything electronic, we've seen inflation. So that -- we said all that last year, so I'm not giving you anything new, but what I would tell you is it hasn't abated. It's still there. And frankly, that's why we need the pricing to continue to march up to offset some of that inflation, which is real.

他們過去常常實行三班倒，每天 24 小時不間斷，但在填補最後一班時卻遇到了問題。因此他們面臨一些勞動力壓力，諸如雷達和任何電子產品，我們都看到了通貨膨脹。所以——我們去年就說過這些，所以我沒有給你任何新的東西，但我要告訴你的是，它並沒有減弱。它還在那裡。坦白說，這就是為什麼我們需要價格繼續上漲來抵消部分通貨膨脹，這是真實存在的。

Frankly, our competitors and our customers understand it. They get it because they're dealing with it too. So it's there in terms of quantifying it, it's hard for us to give you a precise number on inflation. But again, if you look at that 200 to 300 basis point improvement in inland margins, that incorporates both price increases plus the inflation area increases.

坦白說，我們的競爭對手和客戶都明白這一點。他們理解這一點，因為他們也在處理這個問題。因此，從量化的角度來看，我們很難給出通貨膨脹的精確數字。但是，如果您再看看內陸利潤率 200 到 300 個基點的提高，就會發現這既包含了價格上漲，也包含了通膨領域的增加。

Ben Nolan, Stifel.

本·諾蘭（Ben Nolan），斯蒂費爾（Stifel）。

So if I could pick up -- if I can pick up on the barge side real quick. As we look forward, there's a couple of unique things that are going on a little -- or somewhat unique, and I was going to hope to get your comments on. First of all, do you have any perspective on if there are tariffs on Canada and Mexico, what that -- are there any implications for the barge industry?

所以如果我能很快接到駁船方面的指示。展望未來，我們會發現一些獨特的事情正在發生，我希望得到您的評論。首先，您是否認為如果對加拿大和墨西哥徵收關稅，會對駁船業產生什麼影響？

And then also, I saw yesterday, Lyondell say they were closing a refinery in Houston. Is that a needle mover at all for you guys? Just any color on some of those things that are just happening in the market on your business?

而且，我昨天還看到，利安德爾表示他們正在關閉位於休士頓的煉油廠。這對你們來說是否是一件令人興奮的事？您能談談市場上最近發生的一些事情對您的業務有何影響嗎？

Sure. I'll let Christian handle the Lyondell question, but let me just talk broadly on tariffs. It's an interesting thing with tariffs. So far, it looks like the administration is using it as a negotiation tool rather than anything broad-based. Our view from a marine side is tariffs, although we're very pro-business and don't like a lot of tariffs, but if they happen, it's generally good for Kirby in that.

當然。我會讓克里斯蒂安來處理萊昂德爾的問題，但讓我廣泛地談談關稅問題。關稅是一件有趣的事。到目前為止，看起來政府是將其用作談判工具，而不是任何廣泛的工具。從海運方面來看，我們的觀點是關稅，儘管我們非常支持商業並且不喜歡很多關稅，但如果發生關稅，通常對 Kirby 來說是有利的。

We're essentially 100% domestic that would drive more onshoring and more activity in the US. So we'd probably benefit from that. Again, it would also could be inflationary, depending on how robust the tariffs would be. Inflation is not necessarily bad for us. We work hard to offset it.

我們的業務基本上是 100% 國內業務，這將推動美國更多的在岸外包和活動。因此我們可能會從中受益。再次，這也可能會導致通貨膨脹，這取決於關稅的力度有多大。通貨膨脹對我們來說並不一定是壞事。我們盡力去抵消它。

But we have a huge installed base of equipment and inflation would make -- replacing that equipment more expensive, which would, in my view, extend the cycle even further than we think it would be because it would be that much more expensive to replace or add new equipment. Christian, why don't you tell them about what's going on? It's delicate for us to talk about a specific customer, but Christian can give you some color on that.

但是我們擁有龐大的設備安裝基數，通貨膨脹會使更換這些設備的成本更加昂貴，在我看來，這會使週期比我們想像的還要長，因為更換或添加新設備的成本要高得多。克里斯蒂安，你為什麼不告訴他們發生了什麼事？對我們來說，談論某個特定的客戶是一件很微妙的事情，但是克里斯蒂安可以給你一些這方面的詳細資訊。

Yes, in regards to the refinery in Houston, while we do service it, and it is part of our demand. What you tend to see, and I've seen this over the years when other refinery of chemical plants shut down or may exit the service as you begin to see the logistical feedstock or finished product supply that, that refinery serviced start to come from other places.

是的，關於休士頓的煉油廠，我們確實為其提供服務，這是我們的需求的一部分。你傾向於看到，而且多年來我也看到過這種情況，當其他化工廠的煉油廠關閉或可能退出服務時，你會開始看到該煉油廠服務的物流原料或成品供應開始來自其他地方。

The end customers who needed that chemical or those refined products or the feedstock come from other places in the market. At times, I've seen that be a benefit to the barge business as logistics change and the ton miles that you have to travel to service, the same customers with refined products, it can actually be a positive. In terms of barge days that it takes to service the markets that, that refinery used to market.

需要該化學品、精煉產品或原料的最終客戶來自市場其他地方。有時，我發現這對駁船業務有利，因為隨著物流的變化以及為精煉產品提供服務所需行駛的噸數英里，對於同樣的客戶來說，這實際上可以是積極的。就為該煉油廠過去的市場提供服務所需的駁船天數而言。

That said, we never like to see refining capacity exit the market. But I think I'm not a refiner but I will tell you, I think the rationalization of some of this older refining capacity in the United States is probably a good thing for many of our customers that operate global world-scale refineries, they will pick up this demand from the exit of this older refinery.

儘管如此，我們絕不希望看到煉油產能退出市場。但我想我不是煉油廠，但我會告訴你，我認為美國部分老舊煉油廠產能的合理化，對於我們許多運營全球規模煉油廠的客戶來說，可能是一件好事，他們將從這些老舊煉油廠的退出中獲取這種需求。

So I think while we don't like to see the volumes go away day to day, I'm not sure it has any dramatic impact to what we do in the Houston Harbor, and you may actually see opportunities that arise out of new trade lanes.

因此，我認為，雖然我們不希望看到貨運量日益減少，但我不確定這會對我們在休士頓港的業務產生任何重大影響，而且你實際上可能會看到新貿易航線帶來的機會。

Great. That's very helpful. I appreciate both of those answers. And then for my second question, I was hoping it sounds like the power business is humming along, particularly in the fourth quarter. As you -- well, first of all, can you give any context on how the backlog build?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。我很欣賞這兩個答案。對於我的第二個問題，我希望聽起來電力業務正在蓬勃發展，特別是在第四季。首先，可以介紹一下積壓訂單是如何產生的嗎？

And maybe any color on how you maybe anticipate that growing over the course of the year or very at least maybe contextualize the conversations you're having with customers and how you think that power business might fare over the course of the year?

您能否具體說明您預計今年電力業務將如何成長，或至少可以結合您與客戶的對話，以及您認為今年電力業務將如何發展？

Sure. Christian and I'll split this question a little bit here. Look, power gen is a real thing. The data center demand is real. Even our e-frac side is real.

當然。克里斯蒂安和我將在這裡稍微討論一下這個問題。瞧，發電是真實存在的。資料中心的需求是真實存在的。甚至我們的電子壓裂面也是真的。

We are seeing orders continue. I'll let Christian give you some color on the backlog, although we don't like to give a specific backlog number. But it's lumpy, Ben. Obviously, it's growing. You can see that in our numbers.

我們看到訂單不斷。儘管我們不想給出具體的積壓數字，但我會讓克里斯蒂安向您介紹一些積壓情況。但它很粗糙，本。顯然，它正在增長。您可以從我們的數字中看到這一點。

It's offsetting the weakness in conventional oil field, but it's lumpy. Picture this, a data center or it could be, call it, $30 million to $50 million worth of equipment. They want it all at once. The supply chain takes a few quarters to get that going. And then it's a lumpy delivery.

它正在彌補常規油田的弱點，但卻不穩定。想像一下，一個資料中心，或者可以說是價值 3000 萬到 5000 萬美元的設備。他們想要立刻得到一切。供應鏈需要幾個季度才能實現這一目標。然後這是一個不平穩的交付。

So when you look at our quarterly progression this year, it could be lumpy because of that. First quarter, we don't really have any big data center deliveries. But second quarter, we should have some big deliveries. So it will be lumpy, but the overall trend is growing, and I'll let Christian give you some color on backlog.

因此，當你看我們今年的季度進展時，可能會因為這個原因而出現波動。第一季度，我們實際上沒有任何大型資料中心交付。但第二季度，我們應該會有一些大幅的交付。因此，這將是不均勻的，但總體趨勢是增長的，我會讓克里斯蒂安給你一些關於積壓的情況。

Thanks for the question, Ben. Thank you, David. If you frame up our power gen journey, four years ago, you had a backlog numbers in the tens of millions of dollars. While we don't discuss backlog to the dollar here, I would tell you that going into 2025, 80% of our backlog power gen. It's in the hundreds of millions of dollars in backlog.

謝謝你的提問，本。謝謝你，大衛。如果你回顧我們的發電歷程，四年前，你的積壓訂單就有數千萬美元。雖然我們在這裡不討論美元積壓問題，但我要告訴你，到 2025 年，我們 80% 的積壓發電量。積壓的訂單價值達數億美元。

My good friend, [Chad], who manages our power gen business and does a great job, told me something interesting the other day. This year, we will deliver our -- we will hit the milestone of delivering 1 gigawatt of natural gas power generation products into the market. So that's a significant milestone for D&S. I think it shows you the momentum and the market penetration that we're enjoying as a player in this market. It is dynamic.

我的好朋友 [Chad] 負責管理我們的發電業務，他做得非常出色，前幾天他告訴了我一些有趣的事情。今年，我們將實現向市場推出 1 千兆瓦天然氣發電產品的里程碑。這對 D&S 來說是一個重要的里程碑。我認為這顯示了我們作為這個市場的參與者所享有的動力和市場滲透力。它是動態的。

It is lumpy as the revenue flows through, as David mentioned. But we do see the backlog. We're excited about it, and we're building out a very good team to capitalize on it.

正如 David 所提到的，收入流是不穩定的。但我們確實看到了積壓的情況。我們對此感到非常興奮，並且正在組建一支非常優秀的團隊來利用它。

Kenneth Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯尼斯‧霍克斯特 (Kenneth Hoexter)。

It's [Ari Rosa] on for Ken Hoexter. Maybe to look a little despite seasonal pressure, still strong inland supply and demand dynamics. You've spoken about a 200 to 300 basis point long-term margin improvement opportunity. Could you just provide some color on where rates are and what -- where rates would need to go to justify significant new builds or capacity additions and how you're looking at that over the next couple of years?

這是 [Ari Rosa] 代替 Ken Hoexter 表演的。儘管存在季節性壓力，內陸的供需動態仍然強勁。您談到了 200 到 300 個基點的長期利潤率提昇機會。您能否提供一些關於費率的詳細信息，以及費率需要達到什麼水平才能證明大量新建或增加產能是合理的，以及您如何看待未來幾年的情況？

Yes, you bet. I can't really give you specific market pricing because the attorney in the room will kill me. So that said, look, we had the little speed bump that Christian and I have described in the fourth quarter. We saw spot pricing decline 0% to 2%, which is barely negligible.

是的，確實如此。我實際上不能給你具體的市場定價，因為房間裡的律師會殺了我。所以說，你看，我們在第四季遇到了克里斯蒂安和我所描述的小障礙。我們看到現貨價格下降了 0% 至 2%，幾乎可以忽略不計。

We're seeing that -- we've already regained traction there here so far in January. But it's early days. You've got to let it play out for the year. That said, spot pricing is well above term. It's probably in the order of 10% above term right now. We like that.

我們看到——到 1 月為止，我們已經恢復了發展勢頭。但現在還為時過早。你必須讓它在這一年內發揮作用。儘管如此，現貨定價仍遠高於期限定價。目前，其金額可能比預期高出 10% 左右。我們喜歡這個。

That's a healthy market. when it gets really sporty, it could be 15% above of term. It may be on that way now, but right now, it's 10% above term. And then if you look at where pricing needs to go to justify building new equipment for a two barge toe, it's got to increase probably 40% from where we are now and that's a code. A two barge toe would need to be, I'm saying in the $14,000 a day rate thing.

這是一個健康的市場。當它真正變得運動時，它可能會比期限高出 15％。現在可能就是這樣，但目前它已經比預期高出 10%。然後，如果您看看價格需要達到什麼水平才能證明建造兩艘駁船的新設備是合理的，它的價格可能會比現在上漲 40%，這就是代碼。我說的是每天需要 14,000 美元的費用。

Look, our competitors understand that. And as Christian mentioned, there's a lot of discipline in terms of new construction right now. It just doesn't make sense to build new equipment. What little building is happening is entirely for replacement right now. So that's our estimation.

瞧，我們的競爭對手明白這一點。正如克里斯蒂安所提到的，目前新建築方面有很多紀律。建造新設備根本沒有意義。正在建造的小建築現在完全需要更換。這就是我們的估計。

We don't know exactly what our competitors are doing. But our estimation is it's all for replacement. To do -- build new capacity, we need significant rates improvement.

我們不知道我們的競爭對手到底在做什麼。但我們的估計是，這都是為了替換。為了建造新的產能，我們需要大幅提高費率。

Got it. That's helpful. Then maybe just a little bit more on this year. You noted you expect 1Q to be the trough given some of these temporary seasonal pressures. Is it -- any color on just how much of a trough it is.

知道了。這很有幫助。那麼也許今年的情況會更多。您指出，考慮到一些暫時的季節性壓力，預計第一季將達到低谷。它是——任何顏色都顯示它是多大的槽。

And really, I'm thinking about seasonality for the rest of the year. Typically, you have a little bit of a bump in the second and third quarters, but maybe fall back down in the fourth. Is there anything unique happening on first quarter to impact any of that seasonality or just any thoughts?

事實上，我正在考慮今年剩餘時間的季節性。通常情況下，在第二和第三季會有一點上漲，但可能在第四季回落。第一季是否發生了一些特殊事件，對季節性或任何想法產生影響？

Sure. No. You've got the seasonality right. I mean the first quarter is usually the lowest. Second and third quarter pick up nicely.

當然。不。您對季節的了解已經正確。我的意思是第一季通常是最低的。第二季和第三季表現良好。

Third quarter is usually the highest. Fourth quarter dips back down a little bit, but not as low as first quarter. That's the normal seasonality. We expect that this year. The only other caveat would be for our coastal business.

第三季通常最高。第四季略有下降，但沒有第一季那麼低。這是正常的季節性現象。我們預計今年就會實現。唯一的其他警告是針對我們的沿海業務。

We have a very heavy first quarter shipyard cycle. They'll start unwinding in the second quarter. So that will impact it. But coastal is rocking right now, I say rocking, it's probably too strong of a term, but it's doing really well. We're essentially sold out and the fleet is performing well.

我們第一季的造船廠週期非常繁忙。他們將在第二季度開始放鬆。這會影響它。但是沿海地區現在正在震動，我說震動，這個說法可能太強烈了，但是它確實做得很好。我們的門票基本上是銷售一空，而且車隊表現良好。

We just have that normal required shipyard maintenance, and we're going to go through it. So that will help the out quarters. It will help second, third and fourth quarter for coastal once we get some of these big shipyards behind us. So that would be the only other seasonal factor that I can add. Anything else, Christian?

我們只是進行了船廠正常的維護工作，我們會完成的。這對我們外部部門有所幫助。一旦我們獲得一些大型造船廠的支持，這將有助於沿海地區第二季、第三季和第四季的發展。所以這是我能添加的唯一其他季節性因素。還有什麼嗎，克里斯蒂安？

No, David, that was well said. We're seeing the normal seasonality in Q1. You've got a little bit of ice form in the Illinois River. You've got some lock outages. You've got some bridge construction going on, but really nothing in Q1 that is beyond our typical normal winter weather battle.

不，大衛，說得很好。我們看到第一季的季節性正常。伊利諾伊河上出現了少量冰層。您的一些鎖出現故障。一些橋樑建設正在進行中，但第一季實際上沒有什麼超出我們典型的正常冬季天氣戰鬥的情況。

It will be the trough but we see things recovering very nicely out of the quarter, and we're actually very optimistic about the rest of the year.

這將是低谷，但我們看到本季的情況將非常好地復甦，而且我們對今年剩餘時間的前景非常樂觀。

And just one clarifying -- you noted the gap I believe, on the inland side is about 10% spot to term. Is that the same across coastal, I mean with the spot of low teens and terms up high 20%. Is that the same dynamic as well?

需要澄清的是，您注意到了，我認為內陸地區的現貨與定期運輸之間的差距約為 10%。沿海地區的情況也一樣嗎？這也是同樣的動態嗎？

Really, we're 100% termed up. So there is really no spot market in coastal right now. So as typically the term contracts are a year in nature, we do have several in our multiyear. So it's really -- as those term contracts renew, pricing will go up.

確實，我們已經 100％ 完成期限了。因此目前沿海地區確實沒有現貨市場。由於定期合約通常為一年期，因此我們的多年期合約中確實有幾份。所以事實上——隨著這些定期合約的續簽，價格將會上漲。

There's really not a lot of spot market at all. I mean, that I'm seeing. And I think that's pretty consistent for most of the industry right now. It is very tight.

現貨市場確實不多。我的意思是，我看見了。我認為目前這對大多數行業來說都是相當一致的。它非常緊。

Yes. The only spot market that really exists is maybe the reletting of a term piece of equipment and you will see that at a premium to the term rates because they're shorter duration trips. However, I think David summarized it very well. I mean, the market is all but sold out.

是的。真正存在的唯一現貨市場可能是定期設備的重新租賃，而且由於行程較短，您會發現其價格高於定期費率。不過，我認為大衛總結得很好。我的意思是，市場上的商品幾乎都賣完了。

And if you look at the percentage increases that we're getting on our offshore renewals, we're getting rate at a clip that we've never seen before. I mean it's pretty big chunks when you're moving rates 20% in a renewal cycle.

如果你看一下我們的離岸續約的百分比成長，你會發現我們的利率成長速度是前所未有的。我的意思是，當你在更新周期內將利率提高 20% 時，這是一個相當大的數字。

But adding, just like on the inland side, we need it, right? There's been inflation. The cost of new equipment has gone up substantially. Just to give you a benchmark number, 185,000-barrel ATB. We built one about five, six, seven years ago in the $80 million range.

但是，就像內陸地區一樣，我們需要它，對嗎？存在通貨膨脹。新設備的成本大幅上漲。只是給你一個基準數字，185,000桶ATB。我們大約在五、六、七年前建造了一座耗資 8,000 萬美元的建築。

To build that today, it's $130 million to $135 million. So that's inflation. It's cost of steel, it's cost of construction. It's -- so the rates do need to go up like that to get anywhere close to replacement economics. And everything we've said about supply and demand on the inland side is the same on the coastal side, even worse.

如今，要建造這個建築，需要花費 1.3 億到 1.35 億美元。這就是通貨膨脹。這是鋼材成本，這是建築成本。是的 — — 因此利率確實需要上漲才能接近替代經濟學。我們所說的內陸地區的供需情況與沿海地區的情況相同，甚至更糟。

Because if you wanted to build a new 185,000-barrel unit today, you would get it until probably the end of '27 maybe in the first part of '28. So we're -- again, we're seeing a long runway here for ourselves, and we're pretty constructive and excited about what's in front of us.

因為如果您今天想建造一個新的 185,000 桶的裝置，那麼您可能要等到 1927 年底，甚至 1928 年初才能建成。因此，我們—再次看到了我們自己的漫長道路，並且我們對眼前的事物非常有建設性和興奮。

Sherif Elmaghrabi, BTIG.

Sherif Elmaghrabi，BTIG。

First, thinking about the supply of inland barges. You mentioned retirements could keep growth flattish. So given the overall inland fleet is aging. Is it realistic to see barges keep working past that 35-year mark? Or is that viewed as something of a hard cutoff in the industry?

首先，思考內河駁船的供應。您提到退休可能會導致經濟成長保持穩定。因此，鑑於內河航運船隊整體正在老化。駁船的使用壽命超過 35 年是否現實？或者這在業界被視為一種硬性限制？

That's a great question. Historically, the age of a barge is driven by the major oil company or the major chemicals betting rules as well as the economic decision, does it make sense to keep investing in a 30-, 35-year-old asset.

這是一個很好的問題。從歷史上看，駁船的年齡是由大型石油公司或大型化學品投注規則以及經濟決策決定的，繼續投資 30 年、35 年的資產是否有意義。

I'll give you a little color. It's an inexact science, but we saw 75 barges retire in 2024, and we don't know exactly if they retired, but we do know that their certificate of inspections were removed. So that was an average age of 42 years, the barges that retired in that bucket.

我會給你一點顏色。這是一門不精確的科學，但我們看到 75 艘駁船在 2024 年退役，我們不知道它們是否退役，但我們知道它們的檢驗證書已被取消。所以，這些退役駁船的平均使用年資為 42 歲。

I think you'll see perhaps one way to adjust to the lack of new construction is for carriers to try to stretch the age of their fleets. Now you will still run up against the betting rules of the major oil companies and the major chemical companies, how they decide to flex or interpret that is still in play.

我想你會發現也許適應缺乏新船建造的一種方法是讓承運商盡力延長其船隊的使用年限。現在你仍然會碰到大型石油公司和大型化學公司的投注規則，他們如何決定靈活運用或解釋這些規則仍然在發揮作用。

We don't know. But typically, we'll thumb a barge gets to 30 years. I mean that's its useful life. So great question. I would tell you that the carriers like us are still waiting to see how that plays out.

我們不知道。但通常情況下，我們會認為駁船的使用壽命要達到 30 年。我的意思是這就是它的使用壽命。這個問題問得真好。我想告訴你，像我們這樣的運營商仍在等待觀察事態如何發展。

That's interesting. And then for my second question, I want to circle back on what Ben was mentioning with power gen. The color on the backlog is very helpful. And Well, just in the last couple of weeks, we've seen a handful of big nat gas partnerships announced.

那很有意思。然後對於我的第二個問題，我想回到 Ben 提到的發電問題。積壓工作上的顏色非常有用。就在過去幾週，我們看到一些大型天然氣合作夥伴關係宣佈建立。

But that's all long lead time stuff, which I imagine lends itself to back up power gen that runs on the same fuel. So I'm wondering, what opportunity you see over the next three-plus years longer term and what you're hearing from customers there?

但這些都是需要長期準備時間的事情，我想這有助於為使用相同燃料的發電機提供備用電源。所以我想知道，從長遠來看，您在未來三年多的時間裡看到了什麼機遇，以及您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？

Yes. Look, our power gen portfolio is multifaceted. So for example, most data centers are diesel backup gens, stationary. They're installed we do stationary backup for New York Stock Exchange, some of the major money center banks in New York, et cetera. So that's one bucket, stationary diesel.

是的。你看，我們的發電產品組合是多方面的。舉例來說，大多數資料中心都是固定的柴油備用發電機。它們為我們紐約證券交易所、紐約的一些主要貨幣中心銀行等提供固定備份。這就是一桶固定柴油。

Then we have mobile diesel, where we'll will provide mobile backup power generally around storms or ice storms or utility disruptions. Think about on 1 megawatt or 2-megawatt trailer full of backup power that's diesel run that can come to the back of a Walmart or a Target or a Costco and plug in and run the store in a storm type situation.

然後我們有行動柴油，我們通常會在暴風雨或冰暴或公用事業中斷時提供行動備用電源。想像一下，一輛裝滿柴油驅動的備用電源的 1 兆瓦或 2 兆瓦拖車，可以停在沃爾瑪、塔吉特或好市多的後面，插上電源，在暴風雨天氣運行商店。

So that bucket for us is growing. You saw our CapEx go up a little bit last year. Because of that, we just need more rental assets.

所以對我們來說這個桶子正在不斷成長。您會看到，去年我們的資本支出略有增加。因此，我們只是需要更多的租賃資產。

The demand for backup power just continues to grow and having mobile backup power is good. And then you get into natural gas generation, which is it can be mobile or stationary, and that's growing as well. And as you might imagine, natural gas is a lot cheaper than diesel. So there's a lot of excitement around that. We do that as well.

對於備用電源的需求持續成長，擁有行動備用電源是件好事。然後你進入天然氣發電，它可以是移動的或固定的，而且它也在成長。您可能想像得到，天然氣比柴油便宜很多。因此，人們對此感到非常興奮。我們也這麼做。

A lot of mobile, some stationery. Some of it is -- that goes to customers that sell power by the hour. Some of it is prime power, some of it is backup power. So all of those buckets are growing. It's hard to get too specific without getting into the customers on each one of those buckets.

很多手機，一些文具。其中一部分——是分配給按小時出售電力的客戶。其中一些是主電源，一些是備用電源。因此所有這些桶子都在增長。如果不涉及每個類別的客戶，就很難做到太具體。

But we're excited about the whole portfolio. I think what we can do is natural gas generation is really exciting because the cost per kilowatt hour is it's not as competitive as, say, a big utility could do, but it is. It's cost effective and being able to sub in there for needs is important and useful to many of the industrial customers that we have.

但我們對整個投資組合感到非常興奮。我認為我們可以做的是天然氣發電，這確實令人興奮，因為每千瓦時的成本並不像大型公用事業公司那樣具有競爭力，但事實確實如此。它具有成本效益並且能夠滿足需求，對於我們許多工業客戶來說非常重要且有用。

(Operator Instructions) Greg Wasikowski, Webber Research.

（操作員指示） Greg Wasikowski，韋伯研究公司。

I want to go back to the order book. I know you guys have talked about it a lot, but it's a point worth hammering home. And David, I think I heard you say this, but worth confirming if we see deliveries in 2025 start to outpace 2024, it's worth hammering home that point that it is expected to be mostly replacement tonnage. That's the first question. And the second is just off that the 40% number for rate to justify building new.

我想回到訂單簿。我知道你們已經談論過很多次了，但這一點仍然值得強調。大衛，我想我聽到你這麼說了，但值得確認的是，如果我們看到 2025 年的交付量開始超過 2024 年，那麼值得強調的是，預計這主要是替代噸位。這是第一個問題。第二個就是用 40% 的比率來證明新建案的合理性。

We've been at that point for some time now, I want to say probably a couple of years. It's a question that gets asked every quarter. It's a question that we get all the time and it's -- the answer is 30%, 40% all the time. What needs to change in order for that to not be the answer anymore?

我們已經處於這個階段有一段時間了，我想說，可能有幾年了。這是每季都會被問到的問題。這是我們經常遇到的問題，答案始終是 30%、40%。需要做哪些改變才能使它不再是答案？

And really, that's getting at what do we and investors and people who are following the stock need to look for in order to start getting nervous or better pose what do they not need to look for in order to remain calm?It's a -- I hope you're getting it. So yes, I'll stop there.

而實際上，這涉及到我們以及投資者和關注股票的人需要尋找什麼才能開始緊張，或者更好地說，他們不需要尋找什麼才能保持冷靜？a——我希望你明白了。是的，我就到此為止。

No, it's a fair question because that 30%, 40% need is something, I've said for to your point, the last two, three, four years. But I said around $14,000 a day for a two barge toe right now to justify. I think probably three years ago, I would have said 12,000. So why does it go up? The cost of a barge has gone from -- well, five years ago, it was probably $2.5 million for a 30,000 barrel large.

不，這是一個合理的問題，因為那個 30%、40% 的需求，我已經說過，在過去的兩、三、四年裡。但是我說現在每天花 14,000 美元買兩塊駁船趾骨就可以了。我想大概三年前我會說 12,000。那麼它為什麼會上漲呢？一艘駁船的成本已經從五年前起上漲到了現在的水平，當時載重 3 萬桶的駁船成本大概為 250 萬美元。

Now it's probably, as Christian just mentioned, I think $4.5 million for a 30,000 barrel clean barge. And then that's the barge side. What's driven the cost up there steel prices for sure, but that's only about 30% of the input. But it's labor cost, it's welding, it's all the paint cost, all that has gone up. And then you go to the boat side, and we've gone from Tier 2, Tier 3 boats to now Tier 4.

現在可能就像克里斯蒂安剛才提到的那樣，我認為一艘 30,000 桶的清潔駁船的價格為 450 萬美元。這就是駁船的一側。確實，是什麼導致了鋼鐵價格上漲，但這只是投入的30%左右。但是勞動成本、焊接成本、油漆成本，所有的這些都上漲了。然後你來到船邊，我們已經從 2 級、3 級船隻發展到現在的 4 級。

So Tier 4, one cost more to operate you have all kinds of considerations for it. The engines are more expensive. The operation of the boats are more expensive. It's at least on just a regular tow boat that added about $1 million in cost. So -- and then just financing equipment has also gone up.

因此，第 4 層的操作成本更高，您需要考慮各種因素。引擎更貴。船隻的運作成本更高。至少，光是一艘普通的拖船就增加了約 100 萬美元的成本。那麼 — — 光是設備融資成本就也上漲了。

So we usually talk when we talk about pricing, unlevered returns, but for many of our competitors, they've got leverage and the cost of borrowing has gone up. So you put all that together, and that's why the breakeven cost continues to rise.

因此，當我們談論定價時，我們通常會談論無槓桿回報，但對於我們的許多競爭對手來說，他們已經有了槓桿，而且借貸成本已經上升。所以你把所有這些放在一起，這就是盈虧平衡成本持續上升的原因。

So even though we're getting some price increases, that delta really hasn't closed. Now I'm going to turn it back to Christian. He has very specific numbers on '24 build and retirement and then 25 what our crystal ball is hearing.

因此，儘管價格有所上漲，但這種差距實際上並沒有縮小。現在我要把話題轉回給克里斯蒂安。他對 24 年的建造和退休有著非常具體的數字，而 25 年我們的水晶球聽到了這些數字。

Yes. Thanks, David. Regarding the barge order book, it's a bit of an inexact science, but we do have really good information. We're looking at what we think was about 34 barges delivered in 2024. We know the majority of these barges were replacement.

是的。謝謝，大衛。關於駁船訂單，它是一門不太精確的科學，但我們確實有非常好的資訊。我們預計 2024 年將交付約 34 艘駁船。我們知道這些駁船大部分都是替換品。

There's probably about another 10 barges that are going to slide into 2025 that we're in. The order book is probably in the 40s and those will slide into this year. The 2025 order book, we think, is lined up to be about 50 to 60 inland barges.

到 2025 年，可能還會有另外 10 艘駁船投入使用。訂單量大概在40左右，並且會延續到今年。我們認為，2025 年的訂單將包括約 50 至 60 艘內陸駁船。

But I will tell you that at 50 to 60 new construction orders, the present shipyard capacity that can build a high-quality inland tank barge is full. If you wanted to build another bars beyond that 50 or 60, you're well into 2026 to get delivery.

但我要告訴大家的是，在50至60艘新船訂單的情況下，目前船廠建造高品質內河油駁船的能力已經飽和。如果您想在這 50 或 60 個之外再建造一個酒吧，那麼要到 2026 年才能交貨。

So I think the capacity to build inland barges in the United States is diminished from what it was once a point of time when we saw the hyperaggressive building during the days of chasing the shale crude barrel. So supply is as in check as I've ever seen it in my 28 years.

因此，我認為，與追逐頁岩原油期間的極度激進的建造相比，美國建造內陸駁船的能力已經下降。因此，供應情況是我 28 年來從未見過的。

And so I think even at an increase from, say, 30 to 40 barges to 50 to 60 year over year, we feel quite confident that the majority of this is replacement, which puts the industry and the supply side in very, very good shape. On top of that, 20% of the industry will also have to go through a maintenance cycle as the maintenance bubble continues. So we still see a high level of major maintenance that's going to require.

因此，我認為，即使駁船數量從去年的 30 至 40 艘增加到 50 至 60 艘，我們也非常有信心，其中大部分都是替換品，這將使整個行業和供應方處於非常非常好的狀況。除此之外，隨著維護泡沫的持續，20% 的產業也將必須經歷維護週期。因此，我們仍然看到需要進行高水準的重大維護。

And by the way, that bubble comes back in 2028 in a big way. So I think when you compound all that or add all that together, you've got a supply side that looks as good as we've ever seen it, as I've ever seen it. And you're clipping along at 75 barges retired in 2024.

順便說一句，這個泡沫將在 2028 年大規模捲土重來。因此，我認為，當你將所有這些複合或加在一起時，你就會得到一個像我們所見過的、我所見過的一樣好的供應方。到 2024 年，將有 75 艘駁船退役。

And if you take that 40, 41, 42-year-old barge group as a group, I mean you still got 500-plus barges that need to retire in the next five years. So I think when you bake all that together, supply sizes and check as we've ever seen it.

如果將這批 40、41、42 歲的駁船作為一個群體，那麼未來五年內仍有 500 多艘駁船需要退役。因此我認為，當你將所有這些放在一起烘烤時，提供尺寸並檢查我們所見過的尺寸。

That's really helpful. A question we've gotten I'm curious to hear your answer is a follow-up to that. still thinking about that 40% number that rates need to go up and the answer to that being the same is that costs have increased along with rates yet Kirby has been able to improve margins rapidly in the last couple of years, while that 40% number has stayed the same, which is a bit of a disconnect, I guess.

這真的很有幫助。我們收到了一個問題，我很好奇想聽聽您的回答。仍然在考慮費率需要上漲的 40% 這個數字，而答案是一樣的，即成本隨著費率一起上漲，然而 Kirby 在過去幾年中已經能夠迅速提高利潤率，而那個 40% 這個數字卻保持不變，我猜這有點脫節。

So -- and the answer might be that yard availability. But what -- can you connect the dots for how you guys have been able to improve your margins even though the costs have been rising generally from an industry standpoint, that 40% number has still remained constant?

所以 —— 答案可能是船廠的可用性。但是—您能否將這些點連結起來，說明您們是如何提高利潤率的，儘管從行業角度來看成本一直在上升，但 40% 這個數字仍然保持不變？

Yes. No. I think basically, our price increases have had real price, not just nominal price. And we needed to get there. Look, we're still a long way from rates that get a reasonable return on invested capital.

是的。不。我認為從根本上來說，我們的價格上漲是具有實際價格的，而不僅僅是名義價格。我們需要到達那裡。你看，我們距離獲得合理的投資資本報酬率還有很長的路要走。

And we work hard. Our job, we believe, for our shareholders is to get a good return on invested capital. So we're trying to outpace the inflation, and we've been making some headway, but we still have ways to go. Anything you want to add, Christian?

我們努力工作。我們相信，我們的工作是讓股東獲得良好的投資回報。因此，我們正在努力超越通貨膨脹，並且已經取得了一些進展，但我們還有很長的路要走。克里斯蒂安，您還有什麼要補充嗎？

I'd attribute it to the management team. No, we've done a good job of executing through the inflationary environment. I think David summarized it. We're an extremely capitally disciplined company that flows through the DNA and the teams, both Marine and D&S. And we enjoy some really good customer relationships.

我認為這要歸功於管理團隊。不，我們在通膨環境下的執行做得很好。我認為大衛已經對此進行了總結。我們是一家極為注重資本紀律的公司，這種紀律貫穿我們的 DNA 和團隊，包括 Marine 和 D&S。我們與客戶的關係確實非常好。

We have really good dialogue around what inflation looks like to Kirby. They listen. And we've been able to stay above inflation and get real rate.

我們針對柯比眼中的通貨膨脹進行了非常好的對話。他們聽。我們能夠維持高於通貨膨脹率的水平並獲得實際利率。

And honestly, our service justifies a lot of that. And I would say that's probably part of why you see us performing on the margin despite the cost environment we're in and the team is doing a great job.

老實說，我們的服務確實證明了這一點。我想說，這可能是為什麼儘管我們處在成本環境下，但我們仍能保持較高的利潤率，而且團隊工作出色。

Yes, Christian makes a really good point. We really try and work to save our customers' money. Because of the size of our fleet, we often are able to pull horsepower off to save them money and redeploy that horsepower somewhere else in our system. So they're only just paying for the bars. We work really hard to save them money.

是的，克里斯蒂安的觀點非常正確。我們確實盡力幫助客戶節省金錢。由於我們車隊規模龐大，我們經常能夠減少馬力以節省資金，然後將這些馬力重新部署到我們系統的其他地方。所以他們只是支付酒吧的費用。我們非常努力地為他們省錢。

So that's all part of the calculus when you come to rates. They know we work hard to save them money, so they'll pay a little more. So don't -- we shouldn't get any more specific than that. But the real answer is we need some real rate increase to get our returns where you as shareholders want to see them.

所以當你談到利率時，這都是計算的一部分。他們知道我們盡力為他們省錢，所以他們願意多付一點錢。所以不要——我們不應該說得比這更具體。但真正的答案是，我們需要一定程度的實際利率增加，才能獲得股東希望看到的回報。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Kurt Niemietz for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在，我想將會議交還給庫爾特·尼米茨先生，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, Shari, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. As always, we feel free to reach out to me afterwards.

謝謝你，Shari，也謝謝大家今天參加電話會議。像往常一樣，我們可以隨時與我聯繫。

This conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

此次會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。