KB Home (KBH) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

午安.

My name is John, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫約翰，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

I would like to welcome everyone to the KB Home 2024 fourth-quarter earnings conference call.

歡迎大家參加 KB Home 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Today's conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay at the company's website, kbhome.com, through February 13, 2024.

今天的電話會議正在錄製中，並將在 2024 年 2 月 13 日之前在公司網站 kbhome.com 上重播。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Jill Peters, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁吉爾彼得斯 (Jill Peters)。

Thank you, Jill.

謝謝你，吉爾。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to review our results for the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2024.

大家下午好，感謝您今天與我們一起回顧我們 2024 財年第四季和全年的業績。

On the call are Jeff Mezger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Rob McGivney, President and Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Kaminski, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Bill Hollinger, Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and Thad Johnson, Senior Vice President and Treasurer.

董事長兼執行長 Jeff Mezger 出席了電話會議；羅布‧麥吉夫尼，總裁兼營運長；傑夫‧卡明斯基，執行副總裁兼財務長； Bill Hollinger，資深副總裁兼首席會計官；和資深副總裁兼財務主管 Thad Johnson。

During this call, items will be discussed that are considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在本次電話會議中，將討論 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內被視為前瞻性陳述的項目。

These statements are not guarantees of future results, and the company does not undertake any obligation to update them.

這些陳述不是對未來結果的保證，本公司不承擔任何更新義務。

Due to various factors, including those detailed in today's press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, actual results could be materially different from those stated or implied in the forward-looking statements.

由於各種因素，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

In addition, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measure of adjusted housing gross profit margin, which excludes inventory-related charges and any other non-GAAP measures referenced during today's discussion to its most directly comparable GAAP measure can be found in today's press release and/or on the Investor Relations page of our website at kbhome.com.

此外，調整後房屋毛利率的非公認會計準則衡量標準（不包括庫存相關費用和今天討論中提到的任何其他非公認會計準則衡量標準）與其最直接可比的公認會計準則衡量標準的調節可以在今天的新聞稿中找到， /或在我們網站 kbhome.com 的投資者關係頁面上。

And with that, here is Jeff Mezger.

以下是傑夫·梅茲格的報導。

Thank you, Jill.

謝謝你，吉爾。

Good afternoon, everyone, and Happy New Year.

大家下午好，新年快樂。

We are speaking with you today from our corporate office in Westwood.

我們今天在韋斯特伍德的公司辦公室與您交談。

I'd like to start by sharing a few comments on the Southern California fires.

首先我想分享一些關於南加州火災的評論。

Words cannot describe the damage and loss in the areas where the fires have occurred and are ongoing.

言語無法描述已經發生和正在發生火災的地區的破壞和損失。

Our thoughts and prayers go out to all that have been affected.

我們向所有受到影響的人表示哀悼和祈禱。

I'd also like to recognize and thank the first responders and fire teams for their heroic efforts.

我還要表彰並感謝急救人員和消防隊的英勇努力。

Although it is not business as usual for some of our employees, all of our divisions, communities and sales offices are fully operational.

儘管我們的部分員工無法正常營業，但我們所有的部門、社區和銷售辦事處都已全面運作。

We recognize that it will be a long road to recover from these disasters.

我們認識到從這些災難中恢復將是一條漫長的道路。

But we also know that California and its people are strong and resilient with the tenacity to rebuild and move forward.

但我們也知道，加州及其人民堅強而有韌性，具有重建和前進的毅力。

We had a strong finish to our year with fourth quarter performance that was within our guided range across most of our key financial metrics.

我們以強勁的業績結束了這一年，第四季度的業績在我們大多數關鍵財務指標的指導範圍內。

At $2 billion, our total revenues were significantly higher year over year, driven primarily by a 17% increase in deliveries that resulted from substantially lower build times.

我們的總收入達到 20 億美元，年比大幅成長，這主要是由於建置時間大幅縮短而導致交付量增加了 17%。

And our earnings per diluted share at $2.52 grew 36% from last year's fourth quarter.

我們的攤薄每股收益為 2.52 美元，比去年第四季成長了 36%。

Our margins were healthy, expanding to just under 21% in gross and increasing to 11.5% in operating income.

我們的利潤率保持健康，毛利率成長至略低於 21%，營業收入成長至 11.5%。

In addition, we returned nearly $120 million of capital to our shareholders during the quarter the vast majority of which came from share repurchases.

此外，我們在本季向股東返還了近 1.2 億美元的資本，其中絕大多數來自股票回購。

Our fourth-quarter results contributed to a solid financial performance for 2024.

我們第四季的業績為 2024 年穩健的財務表現做出了貢獻。

We delivered nearly 14,200 homes driving total revenues higher to roughly $7 billion and increased diluted earnings of $8.45 per share.

我們交付了近 14,200 套房屋，使總收入增至約 70 億美元，每股稀釋收益增加 8.45 美元。

Our book value expanded 12% from the prior year, and we produced a higher return on equity.

我們的帳面價值比上年增長了 12%，股本回報率也更高。

These results are notable in light of the volatility from shifting mortgage rates that shaped the housing market last year.

鑑於去年抵押貸款利率變化影響了房地產市場，這些結果值得注意。

Operationally, we executed well in 2024 as we opened 106 new communities and sold out of 90, reduced our build time by an average of 28% year over year and achieved the highest level of customer satisfaction in our company's history.

在營運方面，我們在 2024 年執行良好，開設了 106 個新社區，並售出了 90 個社區，建設時間同比平均縮短了 28%，並實現了公司歷史上最高水準的客戶滿意度。

The housing market is benefiting from solid employment and wage increases.

房地產市場受益於穩定的就業和薪資成長。

Demographics have been and we expect will continue to be a significant factor in driving housing demand with the largest generational cohorts, millennial and Gen Z buyers demonstrating a strong desire for homeownership and contributing to the growth in household formations.

我們預計，人口結構一直是推動住房需求的重要因素，其中最大的一代群體、千禧世代和 Z 世代買家表現出對擁有住房的強烈渴望，並促進了家庭形成的成長。

As to supply, although existing home inventory has risen, it is still below historically normalized levels in most markets, especially at our price points.

至於供應，儘管現有房屋庫存有所增加，但大多數市場仍低於歷史正常水平，特別是在我們的價格點上。

While longer-term housing market conditions remain favorable, affordability constraints stemming from rising mortgage rates are influencing near-term demand.

雖然長期房屋市場狀況仍然有利，但抵押貸款利率上升導致的負擔能力限制正在影響近期需求。

We generated 2,688 net orders in the fourth quarter, up 41% year over year against a soft comparison in the year ago quarter.

第四季我們產生了 2,688 份淨訂單，與去年同期相比年增 41%。

Our net orders were driven by a significantly higher monthly absorption pace per community of 3.5 homes compared to 2.7 in last year's fourth quarter.

我們的淨訂單是由每個社區每月 3.5 套房屋的吸收速度顯著高於去年第四季的 2.7 套房屋所推動的。

Our cancellation rate remained stable sequentially at historically low level, indicative of a solid pool of buyers ready and able to close on their homes.

我們的取消率連續穩定在歷史低位，這表明有大量買家準備好並能夠關閉他們的房屋。

Having said all this, we did miss our internal sales goals as rising mortgage rates tempered our selling pace as the quarter progressed.

話雖如此，我們確實未能實現內部銷售目標，因為隨著本季的進展，抵押貸款利率的上升抑制了我們的銷售步伐。

Favorable year-over-year traffic within our communities as well as leads from our website, indicate to us that consumers have a strong interest in homeownership, but are hesitant due to discomfort with the volatility in rates.

我們社區內逐年良好的流量以及我們網站的銷售線索向我們表明，消費者對擁有住房有著濃厚的興趣，但由於對利率波動感到不安而猶豫不決。

Affordability drives decision-making, and we help buyers solve for this with our build-to-order model, which offers choice and flexibility.

負擔能力推動決策，我們透過按訂單生產模式幫助買家解決這個問題，該模式提供了選擇和靈活性。

Buyers can meaningfully influence their final sales price by selecting their floor plan, lot, square footage, elevation and personalized finishes in our design studios.

買家可以透過在我們的設計工作室選擇平面圖、地塊、平方英尺、立面和個性化飾面來有意義地影響他們的最終銷售價格。

In addition to offering buyers choice, our built-to-order model provides visibility in our forecasting and consistency in converting backlog to closings with more than 60% of our fourth quarter deliveries coming from build-to-order sales.

除了為買家提供選擇之外，我們的按訂單生產模式還提供了預測的可見性以及將積壓訂單轉化為結單的一致性，我們第四季度超過 60% 的交付來自按訂單生產銷售。

Buyer hesitancy has continued to some degree in our current quarter to date.

本季度迄今為止，買家的猶豫仍在一定程度上持續。

And as a result, for the first six months -- I'm sorry, first six weeks of our 2025 first quarter.

因此，在前六個月——對不起，是 2025 年第一季的前六週。

Our net orders are 1,026 as compared to 1,170 in the comparable period of the prior year.

我們的淨訂單量為 1,026 份，去年同期為 1,170 份。

As we are now entering the stronger selling months of the quarter, and with a meaningful number of community openings projected, we do expect to close the gap on net orders relative to last year's quarter.

由於我們現在正進入本季度銷售強勁的月份，並且預計將有大量社區空缺，我們確實預計將縮小淨訂單相對於去年季度的差距。

We estimate that our net order comparison for the full 2025 first quarter will be roughly flat versus a strong comparable in our 2024 first quarter.

我們估計 2025 年第一季的淨訂單比較將與 2024 年第一季的強勁可比情況大致持平。

And with that, I'll pause for a moment and ask Rob to provide an operational update.

說到這裡，我將暫停片刻並請 Rob 提供操作更新。

Rob?

搶？

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

I will begin by providing additional color on our net order results.

我將首先為我們的淨訂單結果提供額外的顏色。

Our fourth quarter traffic increased 12% year over year, reflecting demand for homeownership improved market conditions and a higher community count relative to the year ago quarter.

我們第四季的流量年增 12%，反映出對住房所有權的需求改善了市場狀況，而社區數量相對於去年同期有所增加。

In addition, as Jeff mentioned, leads from our website were also up as compared to the fourth quarter of last year.

此外，正如傑夫所提到的，與去年第四季相比，我們網站的銷售線索也有所增加。

However, the continued volatility of mortgage interest rates, along with general uncertainty headed into the election and other global and macroeconomic concerns slowed our sales pace as the quarter progressed to below our internal target.

然而，抵押貸款利率的持續波動、選舉前的普遍不確定性以及其他全球和宏觀經濟擔憂減緩了我們的銷售步伐，本季進展低於我們的內部目標。

Although the Federal Reserve announced two interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points during our fourth quarter, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage actually increased from September to October and again in November.

儘管聯準會在第四季度宣布兩次降息，總計 75 個基點，但 30 年期固定抵押貸款利率實際上從 9 月到 10 月以及 11 月再次上升。

As a result, some buyers hesitated on their purchase decisions, particularly in the last two months of our quarter.

因此，一些買家對購買決定猶豫不決，特別是在本季的最後兩個月。

In a shifting rate environment, the onetime rate float down option offered by our joint venture, KBHS Home Loans, is a valuable tool for our built-to-order buyers.

在利率變化的環境中，我們的合資企業 KBHS Home Loans 提供的一次性利率下浮選項對於我們的客製化買家來說是一個寶貴的工具。

This feature allows buyers to reset their mortgage rates lower if they decline while their home is under construction.

如果買家在房屋建設期間拒絕抵押貸款利率，此功能允許買家將其抵押貸款利率重置為較低。

With the consistency and closings that our built-to-order model provides, we were well positioned for the fourth quarter with our backlog and had also begun to shape our 2025 first quarter.

憑藉我們的按訂單生產模式提供的一致性和結帳能力，我們在第四季度的積壓訂單中處於有利地位，並開始製定 2025 年第一季的計劃。

As a result, we held base prices on built-to-order homes in our communities relatively stable rather than chase additional sales with price decreases during a seasonally slow period.

因此，我們將社區中按訂單建造的房屋的基本價格保持相對穩定，而不是在季節性淡季期間透過降價來追逐額外銷售。

That said, we continue to support our buyers during the fourth quarter with roughly 60% of our net orders having some form of mortgage concession, whether a rate lock or a buy down.

也就是說，我們在第四季度繼續支持買家，大約 60% 的淨訂單有某種形式的抵押貸款優惠，無論是利率鎖定還是減持。

This was a consistent level relative to the past four quarters despite the rise in rates.

儘管利率有所上升，但與過去四個季度相比，這一水平保持一致。

Mortgage concessions help buyers gain comfort with the timing of their purchases, serving to offset the option of waiting for a more favorable rate.

抵押貸款優惠可以幫助買家對購買時機感到放心，從而抵消等待更優惠利率的選擇。

Although our goal is to wind down the use of these incentives as a selling tool, we will use them as needed to support our sales.

儘管我們的目標是減少使用這些激勵措施作為銷售工具，但我們將根據需要使用它們來支持我們的銷售。

We began 2025 with a backlog of more than 4,400 homes valued at over $2.2 billion.

2025 年伊始，我們積壓了 4,400 多棟房屋，價值超過 22 億美元。

While our backlog is lower year over year, driven by a 28% improvement in our average build time for fiscal 2024, we can convert our backlog more quickly into revenue.

儘管由於 2024 財年平均建造時間縮短了 28%，我們的積壓訂單逐年減少，但我們可以更快地將積壓訂單轉化為收入。

In addition, faster build times provide an enhanced value proposition to our customers purchasing a personalized home and allow us to sell later in the year and still achieve a year-end closing.

此外，更快的建造時間為購買個人化住宅的客戶提供了更高的價值主張，並使我們能夠在今年稍後出售並仍然實現年終結帳。

As a result, our 2025 deliveries will be comprised of the homes we have in backlog built to order homes sold through the early part of our third quarter and sales of inventory homes.

因此，我們 2025 年的交付量將包括我們為第三季初期銷售的訂單房屋而建造的積壓房屋以及庫存房屋的銷售。

We started approximately 2,800 homes in the fourth quarter, contributing to a 14% year-over-year increase in starts in 2024 and roughly 6,500 total homes in production at the end of the year.

我們在第四季開工了約 2,800 套房屋，導致 2024 年開工量年增 14%，年底投產房屋總數約為 6,500 套。

Going forward, we plan to continue aligning our starts with sales, with the majority of those starts already sold.

展望未來，我們計劃繼續將開工與銷售保持一致，其中大部分已售出。

While we averaged an improvement of 28% in build times for 2024, they were essentially flat quarter over quarter at about five months which was a positive, considering that the hurricanes in the Southeast temporarily impacted our fourth quarter build times, although we did not incur any significant damage in our communities.

雖然我們2024 年的建造時間平均縮短了28%，但季度環比基本持平，約為五個月，這是一個積極的因素，考慮到東南部的颶風暫時影響了我們第四季度的建造時間，儘管我們沒有發生社區的任何重大損害。

We expect to be able to drive build times lower in our 2025 first quarter as we progress toward our goal of four months from start to home completion, which is the lower end of our historical range, assuming no change to the availability of trade labor.

我們預計能夠在 2025 年第一季縮短建造時間，因為我們正在朝著從開工到房屋完工四個月的目標邁進，這是我們歷史範圍的下限，假設貿易勞動力的可用性沒有變化。

To that last point, we recognize that investors are trying to understand the impact that tariffs and immigration policy you could have on the homebuilding industry.

對於最後一點，我們認識到投資者正在試圖了解關稅和移民政策可能對住宅建築業產生的影響。

It is very early as the new administration is not even in place yet.

現在還為時過早，因為新政府還沒有到位。

So while we will have to wait and see how policies unfold, I will share a few of our current thoughts.

因此，雖然我們必須等待政策如何展開，但我將分享一些我們目前的想法。

As to tariffs, the majority of the products we use are produced domestically.

至於關稅，我們使用的產品大部分都是國內生產的。

Although tariffs could result in a higher demand for products made in the US, thereby driving up the cost of those products, we would look for ways to offset those costs and work with our suppliers on volume-based pricing.

儘管關稅可能會導致對美國製造的產品的需求增加，從而推高這些產品的成本，但我們將尋找方法來抵消這些成本，並與我們的供應商合作按批量定價。

We have managed through disruptions in our supply chain before, and we are confident we will navigate any future interruptions as necessary.

我們之前已經成功應對了供應鏈中斷的情況，我們有信心在必要時能夠應對未來的任何中斷。

With respect to trade labor, even in times past when trade labor was very tight, we relied on our long-standing subcontractor relationships to ensure that we had the crews necessary to get our homes built.

在貿易勞動力方面，即使在過去貿易勞動力非常緊張的時期，我們也依靠我們長期的分包商關係來確保我們擁有建造房屋所需的人員。

Working from a backlog of sold homes, our even flow production provides visibility to our trade partners, which is advantageous in their planning process.

從積壓的已售房屋中，我們的均勻流生產為我們的貿易夥伴提供了可見性，這對他們的規劃過程是有利的。

We continued to reduce direct costs on our homes started during the fourth quarter, which were down both sequentially and year over year, helping to offset the impact of mortgage concessions and increases in land cost.

我們繼續降低第四季度開工房屋的直接成本，該成本環比和同比均下降，有助於抵消抵押貸款優惠和土地成本增加的影響。

The categories where we saw the most favorable changes over the course of the year were lumber and concrete despite volatility in lumber pricing in the closing months of our fiscal year.

儘管本財年最後幾個月木材價格出現波動，但我們在這一年中看到最有利變化的類別是木材和混凝土。

There are always opportunities to find cost reductions on our products, and we continue to focus on this, which should help with affordability for our customers, driving incremental sales.

我們的產品總是有機會降低成本，我們將繼續關注這一點，這將有助於提高客戶的負擔能力，從而推動銷售的成長。

Before I wrap up, I will review the credit metrics of our buyers who finance their mortgages through our joint venture, KBHS Home Loans.

在結束之前，我將回顧透過我們的合資企業 KBHS Home Loans 為抵押貸款融資的買家的信用指標。

We maintained our 2024 third quarter capture rate with 88% of buyers who finance their homes using KBHS Higher capture rates help us manage our backlog more effectively and provide more visibility in closings, which benefits our company as well as our buyers.

我們維持了2024 年第三季的捕獲率，使用KBHS 為房屋融資的買家中有88% 的捕獲率較高。的交房可見性，這對我們公司和買家都有好處。

In addition, we see higher customer satisfaction levels from buyers who use our JV versus other lenders.

此外，與其他貸款人相比，我們發現使用我們合資企業的買家的客戶滿意度更高。

The average cash down payment was stable, both sequentially and year over year at 16% and equating to about $80,000.

平均現金首付穩定，環比和年比均穩定在 16%，相當於約 8 萬美元。

On average, the household income of customers who use KBHS was over $131,000 and they had a FICO score of 742.

平均而言，使用 KBHS 的客戶的家庭收入超過 131,000 美元，他們的 FICO 分數為 742。

Even with one-half of our customers purchasing their first home, we are still attracting buyers who can qualify for their mortgage while making a significant down payment.

即使我們有一半的客戶購買了他們的第一套房子，我們仍然吸引那些有資格獲得抵押貸款同時支付大筆首付的買家。

Our longer-term goals of increasing our scale, profitability and returns have not changed.

我們擴大規模、獲利能力和回報的長期目標沒有改變。

With our expanded investments in land acquisition and development in 2024, we are positioned for growth.

隨著我們在 2024 年擴大土地收購和開發投資，我們已經做好了實現成長的準備。

We have a significant number of planned community openings in the first half of 2025 in time for the spring selling season.

我們計劃在 2025 年上半年開放大量社區，以趕上春季銷售季節。

Our success will be a function of our solid execution on the fundamentals, maintaining our high customer satisfaction levels further improving build times, value engineering our products to lower direct cost, and improve buyers' affordability and optimizing each asset on a community-by-community basis to increase our margins and returns and we are confident in our ability to execute.

我們的成功將取決於我們對基本原則的堅定執行，保持我們的高客戶滿意度，進一步縮短建造時間，對我們的產品進行價值設計以降低直接成本，提高買家的承受能力，並優化每個社區的每項資產增加我們的利潤和回報的基礎，我們對我們的執行能力充滿信心。

And with that, I will turn the call back over to Jeff.

然後，我會將電話轉回給傑夫。

Jeff?

傑夫？

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

During the quarter, we invested $744 million in land acquisition and development, an increase of 54% year over year.

本季度，我們在土地收購和開發方面投入了7.44億美元，年增54%。

For the year, we invested over $2.8 billion to acquire and develop land, this represented a year-over-year increase of more than $1 billion as we continue to focus on growing our community count.

今年，我們投資了超過 28 億美元來收購和開發土地，隨著我們繼續專注於增加社區數量，這意味著同比增長超過 10 億美元。

Along the way, we remain diligent with respect to our underwriting criteria product strategy and price points.

一路走來，我們在承保標準、產品策略和價格點方面保持勤奮。

We increased our lab position by 37% year over year, ending 2024, with nearly 77,000 lots owned or controlled almost one-half of which are optioned.

截至 2024 年，我們的實驗室地位比去年同期增加了 37%，擁有或控制的近 77,000 塊土地，其中近一半是可供選擇的。

We plan to increase our community count in both our established as well as newer markets.

我們計劃增加現有市場和新興市場的社區數量。

The latter group now includes a start-up division that we are in the process of opening in Atlanta, which continues our strategy of expanding our growth platform through de novo market entries similar to what we have accomplished in Seattle, Boise, and Charlotte.

後者現在包括我們正在亞特蘭大開設的一個新創部門，該部門繼續我們透過重新進入市場來擴展我們的成長平台的策略，類似於我們在西雅圖、博伊西和夏洛特所取得的成就。

A

一個

tlanta is a top 10 housing market that we know well, and we have hired a seasoned division president with years of experience in this market, who already has a defined market strategy and is actively pursuing land acquisitions.

亞特蘭大是我們熟知的十大房地產市場，我們聘請了一位在該市場擁有多年經驗的資深部門總裁，他已經制定了明確的市場策略，並正在積極尋求土地收購。

Across our footprint, we are focused on capital efficiency.

在我們的足跡中，我們專注於資本效率。

Developing lots in smaller phases wherever possible, and balancing development with our start pace to manage our inventory of finished lots.

盡可能以較小的階段開發批次，並平衡開發與我們的起始進度，以管理成品批次的庫存。

With the cash that our business is generating, together with a healthy balance sheet, we are able to continue reinvesting in our expansion, which is our top priority and also return a meaningful amount of capital to shareholders.

憑藉我們業務產生的現金以及健康的資產負債表，我們能夠繼續對擴張進行再投資，這是我們的首要任務，並向股東返還大量資本。

We completed $350 million in share repurchases in 2024, representing 6% of our shares outstanding at the start of the year.

2024 年，我們完成了 3.5 億美元的股票回購，佔年初流通股的 6%。

Since we began repurchasing shares on a regular basis in late 2021, we have bought back 26% of our shares accretive to both our earnings per share and return on equity returning $1.3 billion in capital to stockholders, including dividends.

自 2021 年底開始定期回購股票以來，我們已經回購了 26% 的股票，這增加了我們的每股盈餘和股本回報率，向股東返還了 13 億美元的資本，包括股息。

We plan to maintain our balanced approach in 2025, reinvesting in our business and repurchasing our shares.

我們計劃在 2025 年保持平衡，對我們的業務進行再投資並回購我們的股票。

In closing, I want to recognize the entire KB Home team for their ongoing commitment to serving our homebuyers and contributing to our strong results in 2024.

最後，我想對整個 KB Home 團隊表示認可，他們一直致力於為我們的購房者提供服務，並為我們在 2024 年取得強勁業績做出了貢獻。

Our company is well positioned for future growth as we intend to continue meaningfully reinvesting in land acquisition and development.

我們公司為未來的成長做好了充分的準備，因為我們打算繼續對土地收購和開發進行有意義的再投資。

Due to the market dynamics we experienced in the closing months of our fiscal 2024 and that have continued into the start of fiscal 2025.

由於我們在 2024 財年最後幾個月經歷了市場動態，並且這種情況一直持續到 2025 財年年初。

We lowered our housing revenue guidance for this year to $7.25 billion at the midpoint of our range.

我們將今年的住房收入指引下調至 72.5 億美元，處於區間中點。

Although there is always a degree of uncertainty as to how a new year will unfold, we have a long tenured management team and seasoned operators in our divisions that are highly skilled in executing our business model and navigating fluctuating market conditions.

儘管新的一年將如何展開總是存在一定程度的不確定性，但我們的部門擁有長期任職的管理團隊和經驗豐富的運營商，他們在執行我們的業務模式和駕馭波動的市場條件方面非常熟練。

Longer-term housing market conditions remain favorable.

長期住房市場狀況仍然有利。

We have the communities and products to meet demand.

我們擁有滿足需求的社群和產品。

We remain committed to enhancing long-term shareholder value by profitably expanding our volume, driving higher returns as well as continuing to return cash to shareholders through both share repurchases and our quarterly dividend.

我們仍然致力於透過獲利性地擴大我們的銷售、推動更高的回報以及繼續透過股票回購和季度股息向股東返還現金來提高長期股東價值。

Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I want to take a moment to recognize him as this will be his last earnings conference call with the company.

在我把電話轉給傑夫之前，我想花點時間認識他，因為這將是他與公司的最後一次財報電話會議。

Jeff has been a valuable partner of mine and a critical part of our leadership team for the past 14 years.

在過去 14 年裡，傑夫一直是我的寶貴合作夥伴，也是我們領導團隊的重要組成部分。

He has helped KB Home grow into a stronger company, producing higher margins and returns and with a healthy balance sheet.

他幫助 KB Home 成長為一家更強大的公司，產生更高的利潤和回報，並擁有健康的資產負債表。

He leads the company, having developed a highly capable and long-tenured team in accounting and finance that I am confident will help ensure a smooth transition.

他領導公司，在會計和財務方面培養了一支能力強、任職時間長的團隊，我相信這將有助於確保平穩過渡。

Thank you for your many contributions, Jeff.

感謝您做出的許多貢獻，傑夫。

We wish you all the best in retirement.

我們祝福您退休後一切順利。

And with that, I'll now ask Jeff to provide the financial review.

現在，我將要求傑夫提供財務審查。

Jeff?

傑夫？

Thank you, Jeff, for those kind words and especially for your leadership and our close working relationship during my time as CFO.

傑夫，謝謝您的善意之言，特別是您的領導以及我擔任財務長期間我們之間密切的工作關係。

It's truly been the high point of my professional life working with you here at KB Home.

在 KB Home 與您一起工作確實是我職業生涯的巔峰。

I'm extremely grateful for the privilege to be able to complete my career with this outstanding company.

我非常榮幸能夠在這家傑出的公司完成我的職業生涯。

I would also like to express our heartfelt thanks to the entire KB Home team for their dedication, and contribution to our success during my tenure.

我還要對整個 KB Home 團隊在我任職期間的奉獻精神和為我們的成功做出的貢獻表示衷心的感謝。

I sincerely appreciate the professional relationships and my countless interactions with this special group of people.

我真誠地感謝與這個特殊群體的專業關係以及無數的互動。

I will now cover highlights of our financial performance for the 2024 fourth quarter and full year as well as comment on our outlook for 2025.

我現在將介紹 2024 年第四季和全年財務表現的亮點，並對 2025 年的前景發表評論。

In the quarter, we produced solid results with a 20% year-over-year increase in housing revenues and an operating income margin of 11.5%, driving a 36% increase in earnings per share.

本季度，我們取得了穩健的業績，房屋收入年增 20%，營業利潤率為 11.5%，推動每股收益成長 36%。

In addition, a robust cash flow supported $744 million in land investment, along with continued share repurchases.

此外，強勁的現金流支持了 7.44 億美元的土地投資以及持續的股票回購。

In the 2024 fourth quarter, our housing revenues grew to $1.99 billion compared to $1.66 billion in the prior year period, reflecting a 17% increase in the number of homes delivered and a 3% rise in our overall average selling price.

2024 年第四季度，我們的房屋收入成長至 19.9 億美元，而去年同期為 16.6 億美元，反映出交付的房屋數量增加了 17%，整體平均售價上漲了 3%。

Our fourth quarter homes delivered of 3,978 represented a backlog conversion rate of 69% and a significant improvement from 49% in the year earlier period.

我們在第四季交付的房屋為 3,978 套，積壓轉換率為 69%，比去年同期的 49% 顯著改善。

Our current quarter delivery performance was favorably impacted by continued improvements in build times and lower cancellation rates.

我們目前季度的交付業績受到建置時間的持續改進和較低的取消率的有利影響。

Looking ahead to the 2025 first quarter, we expect to generate housing revenues in the range of $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion.

展望 2025 年第一季度，我們預計住房收入將在 14.5 億美元至 15.5 億美元之間。

For the 2025 full year, we are forecasting housing revenues in the range of $7.0 billion to $7.5 billion, supported by our backlog of sold homes, projected net orders and reduced build times.

在我們的已售房屋積壓、預計淨訂單和縮短的建設時間的支持下，我們預計 2025 年全年的房屋收入將在 70 億至 75 億美元之間。

In the fourth quarter, our overall average selling price of homes delivered rose to approximately $501,000 with increases in 3 of our 4 regions.

第四季度，我們交付的房屋的整體平均售價升至約 501,000 美元，4 個地區中有 3 個地區出現上漲。

We expect our 2025 first quarter overall average selling price to remain flat sequentially at approximately $501,000.

我們預計 2025 年第一季的整體平均售價將與上一季持平，約為 501,000 美元。

For the full year, we are projecting an overall average selling price in the range of $488,000 to $498,000.

我們預計全年的整體平均售價將在 488,000 美元至 498,000 美元之間。

The expected decline in the full-year average selling price relative to the first quarter is primarily due to the higher mix of deliveries forecasted for the Southeast region in the full year period.

預計全年平均售價較第一季下降的主要原因是預計東南地區全年交付量將增加。

Homebuilding operating income for the 2024 fourth quarter increased 27% to $229.1 million compared to $180.9 million for the year earlier quarter.

2024 年第四季住宅建築營業收入成長 27%，達到 2.291 億美元，去年同期為 1.809 億美元。

Our homebuilding operating income margin expanded to 11.5% compared to 10.9% in the 2023 fourth quarter, reflecting improvements in both gross profit margin and the SG&A expense ratio.

我們的住宅建築營業利潤率從 2023 年第四季的 10.9% 擴大至 11.5%，反映了毛利率和 SG&A 費用率的改善。

We anticipate our 2025 first quarter homebuilding operating income margin will be approximately 9.5% and the full year metric to be approximately 10.7%.

我們預計 2025 年第一季住宅建築營業利潤率約為 9.5%，全年指標約為 10.7%。

Our 2024 fourth-quarter housing gross profit margin increased 20 basis points from the year earlier quarter to 20.9%.

我們的 2024 年第四季房屋毛利率較上年同期成長 20 個基點至 20.9%。

Excluding inventory-related charges of $0.9 million for the current quarter and $1.2 million for the year earlier quarter.

不包括本季 90 萬美元及上年同期 120 萬美元的庫存相關費用。

Our gross margin for the 2020 quarter was 20.9% compared to 20.8% in the prior year period.

我們 2020 年季度的毛利率為 20.9%，而去年同期為 20.8%。

We are forecasting a housing gross profit margin for the 2025 first quarter in the range of 20.0% to 20.4% and for the full year in a range of 20.0% to 21.0%.

我們預計 2025 年第一季房屋毛利率將在 20.0% 至 20.4% 之間，全年將在 20.0% 至 21.0% 之間。

This gross margin outlook assumes the market conditions we experienced in 2024 and with persistently elevated mortgage interest rates will continue.

這個毛利率前景假設我們在 2024 年經歷的市場狀況以及抵押貸款利率持續上升將持續下去。

As a result, we expect no significant change in our use of homebuyer concessions to address affordability concerns.

因此，我們預計我們使用購屋者優惠來解決負擔能力問題的方式不會發生重大變化。

In addition, we intend to continue our focus on reducing direct costs to help offset the impact of these concessions as well as higher land costs, as Rob stated earlier.

此外，正如羅布之前所說，我們打算繼續專注於降低直接成本，以幫助抵消這些優惠以及更高的土地成本的影響。

Our selling, general and administrative expense ratio for the 2024 fourth quarter improved 50 basis points from a year ago to 9.4%, mainly due to improved operating leverage from higher housing revenues.

2024 年第四季度，我們的銷售、一般和管理費用率比去年同期提高了 50 個基點，達到 9.4%，這主要是由於住房收入增加帶來的營運槓桿改善。

We are forecasting our 2025 first quarter SG&A ratio to be in the range of 10.5% to 10.9% and that our 2025 full year SG&A expense ratio will be in the range of 9.6% to 10.0%.

我們預計 2025 年第一季的 SG&A 比率將在 10.5% 至 10.9% 之間，2025 年全年 SG&A 費用率將在 9.6% 至 10.0% 之間。

Our income tax expense of $57.1 million for the fourth quarter represented an effective tax rate of 23.1%, the rate was favorably impacted by additional tax benefits related to stock-based compensation and are earning more tax credits from building energy-efficient homes as compared to the year ago quarter.

我們第四季度的所得稅費用為5710 萬美元，有效稅率為23.1%，該稅率受到與股票薪酬相關的額外稅收優惠的有利影響，並且與其他公司相比，我們通過建造節能住宅獲得了更多的稅收抵免一年前的季度。

We expect our effective tax rate for the 2025 first quarter to be approximately 23%.

我們預計 2025 年第一季的有效稅率約為 23%。

The full year tax rate is expected to be around 24% and up 1% as compared to 2024, primarily due to decreases in energy tax credits.

預計全年稅率約為 24%，較 2024 年上漲 1%，這主要是由於能源稅收抵免的減少。

Given the elevated IRS tax credit qualification requirements, and our focus on maintaining the affordability of our products.

鑑於國稅局稅收抵免資格要求的提高，以及我們致力於維持產品的承受能力。

We anticipate fewer of our homes will qualify for these tax credits in 2025.

我們預計到 2025 年，符合這些稅收抵免資格的房屋將會減少。

To be clear, we remain committed to building highly energy-efficient homes that meet the EPA's ENERGY STAR certified standards.

需要明確的是，我們仍然致力於建造符合 EPA 能源之星認證標準的高能源效率住宅。

However, we believe the additional costs necessary for some of our homes to satisfy the higher IRS tax credit qualification standards outweigh the possible benefits from meeting them for both our business and our buyers.

然而，我們認為，我們的一些房屋為滿足更高的國稅局稅收抵免資格標準所需的額外成本超過了我們的企業和買家滿足這些標準可能帶來的好處。

Overall, we reported net income of $190.6 million or $2.52 per diluted share for the 2024 fourth quarter compared to $150.3 million or $1.85 per diluted share for the prior year period.

總體而言，我們報告 2024 年第四季的淨利潤為 1.906 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 2.52 美元，而去年同期淨利潤為 1.503 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.85 美元。

The 36% increase in our diluted earnings per share reflected the 27% increase in net income as well as the impact of our common stock repurchases that lowered our fourth quarter average diluted share count by 7% as compared to the prior year period.

我們的稀釋每股盈餘成長了 36%，反映出淨利潤成長了 27%，以及普通股回購的影響，第四季平均稀釋股數比去年同期減少了 7%。

Reflecting on the full year, we are very pleased with our operational execution in 2024 that drove significant year-over-year improvements in financial performance.

回顧全年，我們對 2024 年的營運執行情況感到非常滿意，這推動了財務表現較去年同期顯著改善。

Our full year housing revenues of $6.9 billion were up 8% as compared to the prior year and were nearly $300 million higher than the midpoint of our guidance range provided last January.

我們全年的住房收入為 69 億美元，比上年增長 8%，比我們去年 1 月提供的指導範圍中位數高出近 3 億美元。

In addition, our $8.45 of earnings per diluted share improved by over 20%, and our return on equity for the year increased to 16.6% and compared to 15.7% a year ago despite the persistently high mortgage rates for much of the year.

此外，我們的每股攤薄收益為 8.45 美元，成長了 20% 以上，儘管今年大部分時間抵押貸款利率持續居高不下，我們的股本回報率仍從一年前的 15.7% 增至 16.6%。

Turning now to land.

現在轉向陸地。

The $744 million invested in land development and fees during the quarter contributed to the full year total of over $2.8 billion which was up 58% compared to 2023 and represented the highest level since 2006.

本季土地開發和費用投資為 7.44 億美元，全年總額超過 28 億美元，比 2023 年增加 58%，是 2006 年以來的最高水準。

We ended the year with a pipeline of approximately 77,000 lots owned or under contract supporting our plans to drive a significant increase in new community openings in 2025 and early 2026.

截至年底，我們擁有約 77,000 個擁有或簽訂合約的地塊，支持我們推動 2025 年和 2026 年初新社區開業大幅增加的計劃。

Regarding community count, our fourth quarter average of $256 was up 8% year over year.

就社區數量而言，第四季度的平均社區數量為 256 美元，年增 8%。

We ended the year with 258 active communities, up 7% year over year.

截至年底，我們有 258 個活躍社區，年增 7%。

We expect to end the 2025 first quarter with approximately 260 communities, which would result in an 8% year-over-year increase in the average community count.

我們預計到 2025 年第一季末，社區數量將達到約 260 個，這將導致平均社區數量年增 8%。

We also expect to maintain roughly $250 million to $260 open selling communities throughout the second and third quarters of 2025, generating favorable year-over-year comparisons in the quarterly average community count.

我們也預計在 2025 年第二季和第三季維持約 2.5 億美元至 260 美元的公開銷售社區，從而在季度平均社區數量方面產生有利的同比比較。

While we plan to open more communities in 2025 than we did in 2024, we also foresee higher community sellouts.

雖然我們計劃在 2025 年開設比 2024 年更多的社區，但我們也預期社區銷售率會更高。

Based on the expected timing of these sell-out, we currently anticipate ending the year with approximately 250 communities before it grows again in early 2026, just ahead of that spring selling season.

根據這些銷售的預期時間，我們目前預計今年年底約有 250 個社區，然後在 2026 年初（即春季銷售季節之前）再次成長。

During the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.3 million shares of our common stock at a total cost of $100 million, contributing to a total of 4.7 million shares repurchased over the full year and 23.6 million shares or 26% of the starting share count repurchased since implementing our share buyback program in late 2021.

第四季度，我們回購了約 130 萬股普通股，總成本為 1 億美元，全年回購總量為 470 萬股，回購數量為 2,360 萬股，佔年初回購數量的 26%。於2021 年底實施我們的股票回購計畫。

With $700 million remaining under our current common stock repurchase authorization, we intend to continue to repurchase shares with the pace, volume and timing based on considerations of our operating cash flow, liquidity outlook, land investment opportunities and needs, the market price of our shares and the housing market and general economic environments.

目前我們的普通股回購授權還剩7 億美元，我們打算根據我們的營運現金流、流動性前景、土地投資機會和需求、我們股票的市場價格來繼續回購股票，其速度、數量和時間安排以及房地產市場和總體經濟環境。

At year-end, we had total liquidity of $1.68 billion, including $598 million of cash and $1.08 billion available under our unsecured revolving credit facility with no cash borrowings outstanding.

截至年底，我們的流動資金總額為 16.8 億美元，其中包括 5.98 億美元現金和無擔保循環信貸額度下的 10.8 億美元可用資金，沒有未償還的現金借款。

Regarding our financial leverage and credit metrics, we are pleased with our continued progress and a recognition of our strong position as reflected in the ratings upgrades for both S&P and Moody's in 2024.

關於我們的財務槓桿和信用指標，我們對我們的持續進步感到高興，並且我們的強勢地位得到了認可，這反映在標準普爾和穆迪 2024 年的評級升級中。

Over the past year, our debt-to-capital ratio improved by 130 basis points to 29.4% at year-end compared to 30.7% at the end of 2023.

過去一年，我們的負債資本比率從 2023 年底的 30.7% 改善了 130 個基點，達到年底的 29.4%。

We have no debt maturities into our term loans, 2026 exploration, with our next senior note maturity in June 2027.

我們的定期貸款（2026 年勘探）沒有債務到期日，下一次優先票據到期日為 2027 年 6 月。

In conclusion, 2024 marked another year of strong operational and financial performance and we remain optimistic about the outlook for future growth.

總之，2024 年又是營運和財務表現強勁的一年，我們對未來成長前景保持樂觀。

In addition, we believe our solid financial position, including our liquidity profile and long runway for debt maturities and will allow us to continue to be opportunistic with capital deployment in 2025 and beyond.

此外，我們相信我們穩健的財務狀況，包括我們的流動性狀況和長期的債務到期期限，將使我們能夠在 2025 年及以後繼續抓住機會進行資本部署。

We believe we are well positioned to achieve our objectives in 2025 and as we execute on the core principles of our unique build-to-order business model, supported by our improved build times and solid portfolio of communities as well as our returns-focused growth strategy and balanced capital allocation approach centered on enhancing long-term stockholder value.

我們相信，我們有能力在 2025 年實現我們的目標，並在我們改進的構建時間、堅實的社區組合以及以回報為中心的增長的支持下，執行我們獨特的按訂單生產業務模式的核心原則以提高長期股東價值為中心的策略和平衡資本配置方法。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

John, please open the lines.

約翰，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks very much, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

Appreciate all the color as usual.

像往常一樣欣賞所有的顏色。

Jeff, it's not going to be the same without you, but best of luck and thanks for all the help over the years.

傑夫，沒有你，一切都會不一樣，但祝你好運，感謝多年來的所有幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Steve, and good working with you.

謝謝，史蒂夫，與你合作愉快。

Yeah.

是的。

Great.

偉大的。

You gave a lot.

你付出了很多。

So I'm trying to digest all of it.

所以我正在努力消化這一切。

But I think one of the things that really sticks out is the backlog turnover -- the implied backlog turnover ratios, which clearly are going up.

但我認為真正突出的事情之一是積壓週轉率——隱含的積壓週轉率，比率顯然正在上升。

And I think you indicated that the cycle times actually really didn't improve significantly at all quarter to quarter.

我認為您指出，週期時間實際上每個季度都沒有顯著改善。

And so I'm curious, as you look into like the first quarter and then the rest of next year, it looks like you're calling for a backlog turnover ratio to be up pretty meaningfully.

所以我很好奇，當你觀察第一季和明年剩餘時間時，你似乎要求積壓週轉率大幅上升。

It looks like, on average, somewhere probably approaching 70% or more?

看起來，平均而言，可能接近 70% 或更多？

And I'm curious how much of that is due to an improving cycle time in your view versus maybe carrying more spec inventory on your balance sheet.

我很好奇，在您看來，其中有多少是由於週期時間的縮短，而不是在資產負債表上增加了規格庫存。

Yeah.

是的。

So Steve, it's a function of all those factors actually.

所以史蒂夫，這實際上是所有這些因素的函數。

The cycle time has improved, as you noted, quite significantly, and we do expect those numbers that you gave are about right. for next year, particularly in the first quarter, approaching 70%.

正如您所指出的，週期時間已經顯著改善，我們確實希望您提供的這些數字大致正確。明年，特別是第一季度，接近70%。

So the cycle time, first and foremost, was the largest impact and has been on the improving backlog conversion over time.

因此，週期時間首先是影響最大的，隨著時間的推移，它一直在改善積壓訂單轉換。

We have tilted a little more towards delivering some quick move-in ready homes, and that's also contributed to the backlog conversion rates.

我們更傾向於提供一些快速入住的現成房屋，這也有助於提高積壓轉換率。

And as we're reacting to the market and what buyers want, we've carried a bit more inventory.

當我們對市場和買家的需求做出反應時，我們持有更多的庫存。

We hope longer term to come back right back to our traditional build-to-order percentages, but we always have them there for buyers.

我們希望從長遠來看能夠回到傳統的按訂單生產百分比，但我們總是為買家提供這些百分比。

So the answer is really, it's both.

所以答案確實是，兩者兼具。

But the cycle time piece has been really significant, especially after last couple of years, those cycle times on the construction side despite quite high post COVID.

但周期時間確實很重要，尤其是在過去幾年之後，儘管新冠疫情後的周期時間相當長，但施工方面的周期時間卻非常長。

And we've had a lot of focus and a lot of really good work done out in the field on getting that back to our more traditional levels, and that's been the primary driver on that.

為了將其恢復到更傳統的水平，我們在該領域投入了很多精力並做了很多非常好的工作，這是主要的驅動力。

Great.

偉大的。

Yeah, that's really helpful.

是的，這真的很有幫助。

And then you also gave some -- Jeff Mezger you gave some comments about the order pace that you had seen in the first six weeks and doing a little bit of math it seems that you're looking for you're probably looking for orders to be flat for the year for a for the quarter, which means that the remainder of the quarter is going to be probably up about 7% Colo, which is about how much your community count was up year over year at the end of the year.

然後你也給了一些——傑夫·梅茲格（Jeff Mezger），你對你在前六週看到的訂單速度給出了一些評論，並做了一些數學計算，看來你正在尋找你可能正在尋找訂單本季與今年持平，這意味著本季度剩餘時間可能會增長約 7% Colo，這大約是您的社區數量在年底同比增長了多少。

So basically, you're calling for flattish year-over-year type absorptions for the rest of your first quarter.

因此，基本上，您要求第一季剩餘時間的同比吸收量持平。

So I just wanted to confirm that, that's actually -- that's generally correct.

所以我只是想確認一下，這實際上是——這通常是正確的。

And then secondly, with respect to absorptions and what we can expect going forward, in 2025, are the communities that you have opened likely to generate stronger absorptions for any particular reason worth calling out, whether it be the geographic location, whether it be their size or something of that nature that would lend them to having maybe so much stronger absorptions even if the demand environment is consistent year over year.

其次，關於吸收量以及我們對未來的預期，到 2025 年，您開設的社區可能會因為任何值得指出的特定原因而產生更強的吸收量，無論是地理位置，還是他們的社區即使需求環境逐年保持一致，規模或類似性質的因素也可能使它們擁有更強的吸收能力。

Steve, you did a quick math on the absorption calculations.

史蒂夫，你對吸收率進行了快速計算。

That was pretty good.

那是相當不錯了。

And your assumptions and analysis are correct.

而且你的假設和分析是正確的。

We we're expecting the year to be similar to 24%.

我們預計今年的成長率約為 24%。

And it's been choppy.

而且一直很不穩定。

One month will be good and the next one is off and then you come back.

一個月就好了，下個月就休息了，然後你就回來了。

And so we think it will be pretty typical with what we saw in '24.

所以我們認為這與我們在 24 年看到的情況非常典型。

We have a lot of communities opening.

我們有很多社區開放。

We build our projections based on our pro formas and what we expect the communities to deliver or sell and then deliver, but with the shift to more openings this year, it wouldn't surprise me if the openings hit that you'll see a higher pace out of them than you would if it's just communities that are ongoing because new communities always sell better at the opening.

我們根據我們的準備考試以及我們期望社區交付或銷售然後交付的內容來製定預測，但隨著今年空缺數量的增加，如果空缺數量達到更高的水平，我不會感到驚訝。社區，您會比他們更快，因為新社區總是在開業時賣得更好。

But I touched on it in my comments, our internal goals were higher than 3.7% in the fourth quarter.

但我在評論中談到了這一點，我們的內部目標第四季高於 3.7%。

And when we had our call in September, things were solid and demand was strong, then it softened a bit.

當我們在 9 月接到電話時，情況很穩定，需求也很強勁，然後又減弱。

We've turned the corner.

我們已經渡過了難關。

And so far, it's reflected 24.

到目前為止，已反映 24 條。

So we're tying the units and the orders to basically what we saw last year on a per community basis, just lift in the communities.

因此，我們將單位和訂單基本上與我們去年在每個社區的基礎上看到的情況聯繫起來，只是在社區中進行提升。

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

So thank you for taking my questions as well.

所以也感謝您回答我的問題。

And Jeff, best of luck to you on your retirement.

傑夫，祝你退休後好運。

First question is the 20% to 21% range for the gross margin is on the wider side, but understandable given the volatility in rates and the importance of the spring season.

第一個問題是，20% 至 21% 的毛利率範圍偏大，但考慮到利率的波動性和春季的重要性，這是可以理解的。

I guess the question is what are the main factors besides rates that could drive the high or low end of that range?

我想問題是，除了利率之外，還有哪些主要因素可能推動該範圍的高端或低端？

Right.

正確的。

So on the rates probably the driver of both the high and low end in many respects of where the general economic conditions, our affordability and the largest impact we expect for next on affordability as where rates move.

因此，利率可能是總體經濟狀況、我們的承受能力以及我們預期利率變動對承受能力的最大影響等許多方面的高端和低端驅動因素。

So that's part of the reason for the range, as you had mentioned.

正如您所提到的，這是該範圍的部分原因。

It's a little difficult right now, obviously, early in the year before the spring selling season to forecast on in the third or fourth quarters.

顯然，在春季銷售季節之前的年初，預測第三或第四季的情況有點困難。

We really base our margin estimates, particularly the first -- the next quarter out, based on our backlog margins, and that's exactly what we have in the first quarter.

我們確實根據我們的積壓利潤來預測我們的利潤率，特別是第一季的利潤率，而這正是我們第一季的情況。

We also look at the leverage that we have on our fixed costs that are included in the cost of goods sold.

我們也研究了包含在銷售商品成本中的固定成本的槓桿作用。

And in higher revenue quarters, we do a little bit better on margin because of that leverage.

在收入較高的季度，由於槓桿作用，我們的利潤率做得更好。

And that when you look at it sequentially, just focus now on the first quarter, when you look at the first quarter sequentially versus the fourth quarter, were down about 70 basis points at the midpoint, and that is mainly due to the lower volume and the less leverage on the fixed cost.

當你按順序查看時，現在只需專注於第一季度，當你按順序查看第一季度與第四季度相比時，中點下降了約 70 個基點，這主要是由於成交量和對固定成本的槓桿作用越小。

So basically, more than more of what we just saw in the fourth quarter that we expect to see in the first, a lot of those muscle cells have been sold and just be delivered out over the next couple of months to end the quarter.

因此，基本上，我們在第四季度看到的內容比我們預計在第一季度看到的內容要多，很多肌肉細胞已經售出，並將在接下來的幾個月內交付到本季度末。

The full year, like always, I mean, the longer you look forward, the less clear it is and unless you have booked into backlog, particularly for the back half.

全年，就像往常一樣，我的意思是，你期待的時間越長，就越不清楚，除非你已經預訂了積壓的訂單，特別是後半段的訂單。

So we'll come up -- the company will come back again at the end of the first quarter and have a little bit more visibility to it and clearly have a better idea how the year is shaping up based on the spring selling season.

所以我們會提出——該公司將在第一季末再次回歸，並對其有更多的了解，並且根據春季銷售季節顯然對今年的情況有更好的了解。

So we hope to give some more detailed guidance at that point.

因此，我們希望屆時能夠提供一些更詳細的指導。

Yeah, makes perfect sense.

是的，很有道理。

And then Jeff, you talked about just inventory levels.

然後傑夫，您只談到了庫存水平。

Obviously, there's a lot of concern in the market about overall inventory.

顯然，市場對整體庫存有許多擔憂。

So I was just hoping maybe you could flesh out those comments a little bit.

所以我只是希望你能稍微充實一下這些評論。

I mean it does appear that on a national basis, that inventory is in pretty good shape.

我的意思是，從全國範圍來看，庫存狀況確實相當不錯。

But there are some markets where it has stood out as increasing.

但也有一些市場的成長尤為突出。

So maybe just if you can go a little bit around the horn, if you will, and just give us thoughts on what you're seeing.

所以也許你可以稍微繞一下喇叭，如果你願意的話，請告訴我們你所看到的想法。

Yeah.

是的。

Most of the markets, John, are in pretty similar inventory situations, retail inventory levels 3.5 to 4 months in that range, there's a couple I can call out that are higher than that.

約翰，大多數市場都處於非常相似的庫存狀況，零售庫存水準在 3.5 到 4 個月的範圍內，我可以指出有幾個市場比這個水準更高。

One would be in Austin and the other for us would be in Jacksonville.

一個將在奧斯汀，另一個對我們來說將在傑克遜維爾。

And in both of those cases, if you look at the resale inventory and the pricing, it's at price levels much higher than we operate at certainly in Austin, we're priced below median resale with our products.

在這兩種情況下，如果你看看轉售庫存和定價，它的價格水準遠高於我們在奧斯汀的營運價格，我們的產品轉售價格低於中位數。

So we're in a competitive position in those where inventory has moved up a bit.

因此，我們在庫存略有上升的領域處於競爭地位。

But you run through California, Arizona, Nevada, Other parts of Texas are a little higher.

但是你跑過加州、亞利桑那州、內華達州、德州其他地方就高一點。

They're probably in the 4.5 to 5 months range, but still at our price point, not a lot of inventory there.

它們的壽命可能在 4.5 到 5 個月的範圍內，但仍處於我們的價格點，庫存不多。

So I think it's important as you guys are looking at the various markets, look at the price points of the inventory as well, not just the numbers and how quickly they're trading.

因此，我認為這很重要，因為你們要專注於不同的市場，也要專注於庫存的價格點，而不僅僅是數量和交易速度。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·博利，巴克萊銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

I'm glad to hear everyone's well in Los Angeles there, and also best wishes to Jeff K. in the future.

我很高興聽到洛杉磯的每個人都安然無恙，也祝 Jeff K. 未來一切順利。

I wanted to go back to the Q1 order guide and on that view that -- or on that data, that absorptions look like they're down double digits quarter-to-date.

我想回到第一季的訂單指南，根據這個觀點，或者根據該數據，吸收量看起來本季迄今下降了兩位數。

And it sounded like the communities were going to be relatively flat from where you are now to the end of the quarter.

聽起來從現在到本季末，社區將相對持平。

I mean, what is it specifically that allows you to look at that high single-digit increase for the balance of the quarter?

我的意思是，具體是什麼讓您能夠看到本季剩餘時間的高個位數成長？

Is it going to be a incentives, concessions, just price reductions?

是激勵、優惠還是降價？

Just what is it that you think will stimulate that sales base activity?

您認為什麼會刺激銷售基礎活動？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt, I'd walk through the detail year over year because it's a very small number for an odd selling period whether it's how the weekends break around the holidays or just the fact it's the month of December, it's not a big driver of our orders for the year or quarter or year.

馬特，我會逐年詳細介紹細節，因為對於奇怪的銷售期來說，無論是假期前後的周末休息時間還是只是 12 月份的事實，這只是一個非常小的數字，這不是我們訂單的主要推動因素年度或季度或年度。

And that's why we said we know we'll close that gap over the balance of the year because of the -- whether it's just a general market improvement or the number of communities that we're opening and introducing here in January and in February.

這就是為什麼我們說我們知道我們將在今年餘下的時間裡縮小這一差距，因為無論是整體市場的改善還是我們在一月和二月在這裡開放和引入的社區數量。

The market doesn't have to dramatically change from where it is today.

市場不必與今天相比發生巨大變化。

It's just a function of what we're doing with community openings.

這只是我們在社區開放方面所做的工作的一個功能。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

I just wanted to double click on the incentives and concessions.

我只是想雙擊獎勵和優惠。

And if there was any type of assumption there.

如果有任何類型的假設。

I guess on the second question, just thinking about the starts versus sales over the balance of the year, I know you mentioned the sales came in a little lighter than expectations in Q4.

我想關於第二個問題，只要考慮一下今年剩餘時間的開工率與銷售額，我知道您提到第四季度的銷售額比預期要少一些。

But you did start a little bit more homes than you sold in Q4.

但你開工的房屋確實比第四季銷售的房屋多了一點。

And just -- I guess it goes back to the margin question.

只是——我想這又回到保證金問題了。

But is there a margin level at which you would look to hold the line a little bit more and dial back on starts?

但是，是否存在保證金水平，您希望在這個保證金水平上多堅持一點，並在開始時回撤？

Or just how are you thinking about maintaining that balance between starts and margins depending on how this market evolves this year?

或者，您如何考慮根據今年市場的發展來保持起始和利潤之間的平衡？

Matt, it's really a function of what we keep calling it optimizing every asset.

馬特，這實際上是我們所說的優化每項資產的功能。

There's an ideal run rate at an ideal margin that gets you the highest returns for that community, and we target the highest return.

理想的運作率和理想的利潤可以讓您為該社區獲得最高的回報，而我們的目標是最高的回報。

So if we're -- if sales are off, we'll do things to improve the sales pace and try to optimize the asset.

因此，如果我們——如果銷售下降，我們將採取措施提高銷售速度並嘗試優化資產。

We won't just -- we don't have the need to just go blindly start a bunch of homes and hope we sell them someday at whatever the margin is.

我們不會——我們沒有必要盲目地建造一堆房屋，並希望有一天我們能以任何利潤出售它們。

We're not in that an environment.

我們不在那樣的環境。

It's -- we're going to sell them, start them, close them and the sales pace will pull the levers on what we can with price or incentives or whatnot to ensure we hit our sales rate.

我們將出售它們，啟動它們，關閉它們，銷售速度將透過價格或激勵措施或其他方式拉動槓桿，以確保我們達到我們的銷售率。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good afternoon, everyone, and I hope everyone's safe with all the unfortunate tragedies in LA.

大家下午好，我希望洛杉磯發生的所有不幸悲劇中的每個人都安全。

And also, Jeff, it's been -- Jeff K., it has been great working with you and best of luck going forward.

另外，Jeff，Jeff K.，與您合作非常愉快，祝您未來一切順利。

Just wanted to dial in a little bit on the gross margin guidance and make sure we're understanding it properly.

只是想稍微了解一下毛利率指導，並確保我們正確理解它。

In terms of the modest sequential reduction in 1Q to 4Q, if that's more just simply a function of operating leverage?

就第一季到第四季的適度連續下降而言，這是否只是營運槓桿的函數？

I believe you said you're assuming a similar type of incentive environment, 1Q versus 4Q.

我相信您說過您假設第一季與第四季有類似的激勵環境。

So I just wanted to make sure that I was getting that correctly and conversely going forward from 1Q to the rest of the year, getting closer to the midpoint if that's also more again, a function of operating leverage versus anything else?

所以我只是想確保我得到的結果是正確的，相反，從第一季到今年剩餘時間，越來越接近中點，如果這又是一個營運槓桿與其他因素相比的函數？

Right.

正確的。

So I'm not sure when you're talking about the operating leverage, Mike, are you talking year over year?

所以我不確定你什麼時候談論營運槓桿，麥克，你是在談論逐年的情況嗎？

Are you talking sequentially where you're coming from there?

你是按順序談論你從那裡來的嗎？

Well, sequentially, right, because you're talking about on your gross margins being -- taking a little bit of a step down versus 4Q and then looking forward, the margins improving a little bit to get from to the midpoint of the full year.

嗯，按順序，對，因為你談論的是你的毛利率——與第四季度相比略有下降，然後展望未來，從全年中點開始，利潤率略有提高。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

So yeah, sequentially, virtually all of the decline from the fourth quarter is due to the lower leverage on the fixed cost.

所以，是的，從第四季開始，幾乎所有的下降都是由於固定成本槓桿率降低所造成的。

We have -- we're seeing similar profiles on pricing, costs, incentives, et cetera, that we experienced in the fourth quarter.

我們在定價、成本、激勵等方面看到了與第四季相似的情況。

The bulk of those homes are in backlog.

這些房屋大部分都處於積壓狀態。

We know the cost.

我們知道成本。

We know the pricing.

我們知道定價。

We don't expect to have a bunch of closing table giveaways or anything like that.

我們不希望有一堆閉桌贈品或類似的東西。

And from the point of view of any quick move-in ready homes, there's always some variability around that in the quarter, but we think that will be maintained about what we just saw in the fourth.

從任何快速入住的現成房屋的角度來看，本季總是存在一些變化，但我們認為這種變化將與我們剛剛在第四季度看到的情況保持一致。

So that's the sequential piece on it.

這就是它的連續部分。

When you look forward to the full year, yeah, the -- as you know, the leverage on the fixed cost always has an impact, sometimes favorable, sometimes unfavorable depending on the top line within the quarter.

當你展望全年時，是的，如你所知，固定成本的槓桿總是會產生影響，有時有利，有時不利，取決於季度內的營收。

When I'm looking at the full year, I'm looking at it really more on a basis of -- number one, you had the improvement coming off the first quarter, but the first quarter is usually a pretty low volume quarter for us.

當我審視全年時，我更多地基於以下幾點來看待它：第一，第一季度的業績有所改善，但第一季度對我們來說通常是一個銷量相當低的季度。

So that is also mainly impacted those back three quarters in total.

因此，這也主要受到了前三個季度的影響。

A lot of that is actually also the leverage side of it.

其中很大一部分其實也是槓桿方面。

But I think as importantly, we are seeing a slight decline versus 2024 and the full-year margin.

但我認為同樣重要的是，我們看到與 2024 年和全年利潤率相比略有下降。

It's about 60 bps right now at the midpoint.

現在的中點約為 60 個基點。

Mainly due to mix and mainly due to what we are just forecasting where these new communities will open and deliver out at.

主要是由於混合，主要是由於我們剛剛預測這些新社區將在哪裡開放和交付。

But a lot of that is based on our best estimates right now on everything we know, and we stay fairly current on the underwriting on these communities and our visions do a really good job forecasting current conditions out.

但其中許多都是基於我們目前對所知道的一切的最佳估計，並且我們對這些社區的承保保持相當的最新狀態，並且我們的願景在預測當前狀況方面做得非常好。

But if conditions improve, we'd like to say we could do better than these numbers and the opposite if conditions go the other way.

但如果情況改善，我們想說我們可以做得比這些數字更好，如果情況相反，我們可以做得更好。

But it's our best guess at this point.

但這是我們目前最好的猜測。

And it is a slightly wider range than we normally like to give a full percentage point, but there's maybe a little bit more uncertainty as we enter the full year right now.

這個範圍比我們通常希望給出的完整百分點稍寬一些，但隨著我們現在進入全年，可能會有更多的不確定性。

Right.

正確的。

That's no Good.

那可不好。

Understood.

明白了。

Appreciate that.

很欣賞這一點。

And I guess, secondly, I just also wanted to dial in a little bit on incentives or mortgage concessions, I believe I heard right from Rob talking about the percent of communities where offer incentives being roughly similar to the last two or three quarters.

其次，我想我也想在激勵措施或抵押貸款優惠方面稍微談談，我相信我從 Rob 那裡聽到了正確的說法，即提供激勵措施的社區百分比與過去兩三個季度大致相似。

I just wanted to dial in if that statement holds true, if you were to compare the level of incentives that you're offering at the beginning of the fourth quarter towards the end of the -- versus the end of the fourth quarter?

我只是想問這個說法是否屬實，如果你要比較你在第四季初和第四季末提供的激勵程度？

And if part of the reason perhaps because your orders did miss maybe with your internal projections, if there was any type of -- it sounded like also a view of -- to the extent you held incentives, you're willing to hold margin a little bit, not do some of those base price reductions and you took the hit on the volume if that's the right way to think about how you approach the quarter versus maybe the industry itself being a little bit more consolidatory on incentives on the broader market basis?

如果部分原因可能是因為你的訂單確實錯過了你的內部預測，如果有任何類型的——聽起來也是一種觀點——在你持有激勵措施的範圍內，你願意持有保證金一點點，不做一些基本價格降低，如果這是考慮如何處理本季度的正確方法，那麼您會受到銷量的打擊，而不是行業本身在更廣泛的市場基礎上對激勵措施進行更加整合？

Mike, I can make one or two comments and then pass it to Rob because he's got the detail and lives the trends every day.

麥克，我可以發表一兩條評論，然後將其傳遞給羅布，因為他了解細節並且每天都關注趨勢。

But it's a good example of the difference in how we operate versus a lot of our peers that are 100% spec builders because they'll just keep up in the incentive until they clear the house or until they hit their number.

但這是一個很好的例子，說明了我們的運作方式與許多 100% 規格建構者的同行之間的差異，因為他們只會繼續激勵，直到他們清理乾淨或達到他們的目標。

And a big chunk of our deliveries were sold four, five, six months ago, and they're waiting on us to complete their homes.

我們交付的大部分貨物在四、五個、六個月前就已售出，他們正在等待我們完成他們的房屋。

So there's no incentives needed.

所以不需要任何激勵措施。

It's just get the home built as quickly as you can.

只要盡快把房子建好就可以了。

And we're sharing on this call that our build times are continuing to compress, which is really a good thing for our business.

我們在這次電話會議上表示，我們的建置時間正在繼續壓縮，這對我們的業務來說確實是一件好事。

But Rob, why don't you walk through again the mortgage concessions and what you saw in the quarter with some of rate locks you were having to do?

但是羅布，為什麼不再次回顧一下抵押貸款優惠以及你在本季看到的一些利率鎖定的情況呢？

Yeah.

是的。

So I think most of what you said there was right in the way that we didn't -- we asked the question.

所以我認為你所說的大部分內容都是正確的，但我們沒有——我們提出了這個問題。

We didn't see a big change in the number of buyers that we were incentivizing or the level of incentives overall for the quarter.

我們沒有看到我們激勵的買家數量或本季的整體激勵水平發生重大變化。

I would say that, that did increase some as we moved throughout the quarter, you go back to September, we were in an environment where rates were coming down.

我想說的是，隨著我們在整個季度的移動，這確實增加了一些，你回到 9 月份，我們處於利率下降的環境中。

I think there was some excitement about that needed to do less just because rates were lower.

我認為人們對僅僅因為利率較低就需要減少做事感到興奮。

That's gone the other way.

那已經是另一回事了。

We did choose to not chase sales in Q4 with big discounts or price cuts considering how choppy the markets were, the level of discounting that we saw many of our competitors putting in play in a slower demand time of the year.

考慮到市場的波動程度，以及我們看到許多競爭對手在一年中需求放緩的時期所採取的折扣水平，我們確實選擇不在第四季度以大幅折扣或降價來追逐銷售。

So we haven't really adjusted in a meaningful way off of that.

所以我們還沒有真正對此進行有意義的調整。

But it's still about finding the right deal for the buyers that are -- and if we find that we're going to have to do a little bit more because rates are up, we will.

但這仍然是為買家找到合適的交易——如果我們發現由於利率上漲而必須採取更多措施，我們會的。

And we're -- as Jeff mentioned earlier, December is -- it's a tough time to do that.

正如傑夫之前提到的，12 月是我們要做到這一點的艱難時期。

We're just now getting into the better time of the year to sell entering the spring selling season.

我們現在剛進入一年中最好的銷售時間，進入春季銷售季節。

We always see always see the demand creep up and sales level improve.

我們總是看到需求的成長和銷售水準的提高。

So we're just going to put the periscope up as we go along and see what we need to do to keep incentivizing but -- or to keep selling.

因此，我們將在前進的過程中放出潛望鏡，看看我們需要做什麼來繼續激勵，或繼續銷售。

And if that means a little more on price than that's where we'll take it.

如果這意味著價格比我們高一點，我們就會採取這種做法。

If we've got to help a little more on the rates, that's where we'll take it.

如果我們需要在費率方面提供更多幫助，我們就會採取這種措施。

But we're just now really entering that period where it makes sense for us to do that because we've been working off of the backlog that we've had.

但我們現在才真正進入這樣一個時期，我們這樣做是有意義的，因為我們一直在處理積壓的工作。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Hey, guys.

嘿，夥計們。

Good afternoon.

午安.

And I just want to echo everybody else's comments.

我只想回應其他人的評論。

Thinking about all you guys with the fires out there, and good luck to Jeff K. on the upcoming retirement.

想想你們所有在場的人，祝傑夫·K. 在即將到來的退休中好運。

My first question on the community count guide.

我關於社區計數指南的第一個問題。

Admittedly, that was a little bit lighter than we were expecting.

不可否認，這比我們預期的要輕一些。

And it sounds like the dip in the fourth quarter you view as temporary.

聽起來您認為第四季的下滑是暫時的。

But I'm just curious, when I look at your lot count, it's ramped up pretty meaningfully over the last year to two.

但我只是好奇，當我查看你們的批次數量時，我發現它在過去一年中顯著增加到了兩份。

I know that there's obviously lags there.

我知道那裡顯然存在滯後。

But are there any delays driving that flattish community count through the year, either on development or maybe some communities getting pushed out either in California, the cost of these fires or in the Southeast because of the hurricanes?

但是，是否有任何延遲導致全年社區數量趨於平淡，要么是由於開發，要么是加州的一些社區、火災的成本或東南部的颶風導致了一些社區被擠出？

Or was this really consistent with your expectations all along

或者這真的符合你一直以來的期望嗎

Yeah.

是的。

So Alan, most of it just sounds to sell side.

所以艾倫，大部分聽起來都是賣方。

We expect the sale of to be significantly higher than 2024.

我們預計銷售額將顯著高於 2024 年。

So we're basically doing a lot of work just to keep up on that side of it.

所以我們基本上做了很多工作只是為了跟上這方面的腳步。

As we mentioned during the prepared remarks, we have a lot more grand openings coming out as well, but the pressure is really on selling out of more communities.

正如我們在準備好的演講中所提到的，我們還將推出更多盛大的開幕活動，但壓力實際上在於出售更多社區。

So it's a little bit of a tough year from that point of view.

所以從這個角度來看，這是有點艱難的一年。

If you're accurate in what you said about the fourth quarter, we wanted to give a little more color on the year.

如果您對第四季度的描述準確的話，我們希望對這一年有更多的了解。

Normally, we just go on e quarter out in that end of year to indicate what's really happening.

通常，我們只是在年底發布季度報告來表明實際情況。

And as we're moving through the spring selling season, -- we'll have the first and second quarter, some pretty good comps on a year-over-year basis on average community count.

當我們進入春季銷售季節時，我們將在第一季和第二季度，根據平均社群數量同比，推出一些相當不錯的產品。

And that little dip in the fourth quarter is at this point in time, what we expect to see is just a one-quarter dip before it comes back fairly strongly prior to next the 2026 spring selling season.

第四季的小幅下降正是在這個時間點上，我們預計只會看到四分之一的下降，然後在 2026 年春季銷售旺季之前強勁反彈。

So we're pleased with that.

所以我們對此感到滿意。

As far as delays or things like that due to any reasons, there's always things happening with communities and grand openings.

至於因任何原因造成的延誤或類似的事情，社區和盛大開幕總是會發生一些事情。

There's a lot of factors outside of the control of anyone in the homebuilding industry.

有很多因素是住宅建築業中任何人都無法控制的。

Municipalities, weather, natural disasters, et cetera, all contribute to that.

市政當局、天氣、天災等等都會造成這種情況。

But on average, we do pretty good getting our communities opening.

但平均而言，我們在社區開放方面做得相當不錯。

And like I typically will say, when we missed by a few openings in a single quarter, those communities still get opened, and it's not like they're opened a year later or 8 months later, it's usually just missing quarter end and through opening within weeks or within a couple of months in the next quarter.

就像我通常會說的那樣，當我們錯過了一個季度的幾個空缺時，這些社區仍然會開放，而且它們並不是一年後或8 個月後才開放，通常只是錯過了季度末並通過開放下個季度的幾週內或幾個月內。

So it's not a tragic impact or a super negative impact on the business when you look at it from that point of view.

因此，從這個角度來看，這並不是對業務的悲劇性影響或超級負面影響。

But really, the primary driver -- the primary difference next year is just a much larger sell-out population or anticipated cell population than what we saw in 2024.

但實際上，主要驅動因素 - 明年的主要差異只是售罄群體或預期細胞群體比我們在 2024 年看到的要大得多。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

I appreciate that, Jeff.

我很感激，傑夫。

Second question, I know it's very early days as far as the potential impact from all of these fires.

第二個問題，我知道就所有這些火災的潛在影響而言，現在還為時過早。

But California is about one-third of your business.

但加州大約佔您業務的三分之一。

And I'm curious just how you're thinking about how this might play out for your business?

我很好奇您如何看待這對您的業務有何影響？

I know there's no direct overlap thankfully, with your active communities.

值得慶幸的是，我知道與你們活躍的社區沒有直接重疊。

But do you anticipate any either acceleration in cost inflation as the labor pool gets diverted to repair and then fixing damaged homes or rebuilding damaged tons.

但是，隨著勞動力轉移到修復受損房屋或重建受損噸位，您是否預期成本通膨會加速？

Any changes you anticipate to the permitting process or insurance.

您預期許可程序或保險的任何變更。

Maybe just talking broadly about your insurance vis-à-vis some of these more mature markets as well.

也許只是廣泛地談論您的保險與其中一些更成熟的市場的關係。

I think a cash flow question there, but any thoughts going forward?

我認為有現金流問題，但未來有什麼想法嗎？

Alan, I think in general, it's too early to speculate in that the fires are still ongoing, and we're monitoring and we're helping our employees, and we're keeping an eye on everything.

艾倫，我認為總的來說，現在推測火災仍在持續還為時過早，我們正在監控並幫助我們的員工，我們正在密切關註一切。

This will be an extremely complex situation to deal with, and it's going to take some time.

這將是一個極其複雜的情況，需要一些時間來處理。

So we don't expect that 6 months from now, there will be 8,000 housing starts in LA County as all these homes go right back up.

因此，我們預計 6 個月後，洛杉磯縣不會有 8,000 套房屋開工，因為所有這些房屋都會立即恢復建造。

I think it will be a onesie-twosie cadence.

我認為這將是連身衣和兩棲衣的節奏。

And a lot of things have to get worked out in the meantime.

同時，還有很多事情需要解決。

And no different than the geography is vast in Southern Cal.

與南加州廣闊的地理環境沒有什麼不同。

The population is big and the capacity is there to handle a lot.

人口眾多，處理能力也很強。

So I don't expect a lot of labor or material pinch.

所以我預計不會有很多勞動力或物質短缺。

If we get something, it will be very short order and then you deal with it and you move on.

如果我們得到一些東西，這將是一個非常短的訂單，然後你處理它並繼續前進。

I do think we have to be nimble with utilities, for instance, there's going to be a lot of challenge here on utility crews to rebuild infrastructure and get power brought back to thousands and thousands of homes.

我確實認為我們必須靈活地對待公用事業，例如，公用事業人員重建基礎設施並將電力帶回成千上萬的家庭將面臨許多挑戰。

So we'll be watchful of that.

所以我們會對此保持警惕。

And we have assumptions in our community openings and maybe a community loses another couple of months, as you touched on because we can't get power.

我們對社區開放做出了假設，正如您所提到的，社區可能會再失去幾個月的時間，因為我們無法獲得電力。

And that may be a potential.

這可能是一種潛力。

But I don't see a big hit to labor and material necessarily.

但我認為勞動力和材料不一定會受到重大打擊。

It'll take a long time to get this thing rebuilt.

重建這個東西需要很長時間。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

麥克·達爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

And just back on margins and incentive dynamic.

回到利潤和激勵動態。

I guess the simple question is if incentives crept up through the quarter, demand slowed a missed your expectations later in the quarter and then it sounds like first six weeks started off slow.

我想一個簡單的問題是，如果激勵措施在本季度逐漸增加，需求放緩，並且在本季度晚些時候未達到您的預期，那麼聽起來前六週開始緩慢。

Why is the -- why is the assumption of flat incentives for the quarter and the year, the right one to make at this point, especially with rates continuing to creep buyer?

為什麼在這一點上做出正確的假設，尤其是在利率繼續攀升的情況下，本季和全年的激勵措施持平的假設是正確的？

We just think on balance we're right there.

我們只是認為總的來說我們就在那裡。

I mean, during the September call, everything was optimistic, right?

我的意思是，在 9 月的電話會議期間，一切都很樂觀，對吧？

When we were doing the call, rates had come down quite a bit.

當我們打電話時，費率已經下降了很多。

And there's been just a lot of volatility up and down. around the rate environment.

而且上下波動很大。圍繞利率環境。

And there's still this issue on the spreads between the mortgage rate and the treasuries and everything else.

抵押貸款利率與國債利率和其他利率之間的利差仍然存在這個問題。

So look, we don't have a crystal ball on the macro, and we don't know where that's heading.

所以看，我們沒有宏觀的水晶球，我們也不知道它的發展方向。

I do know -- there was a fair amount of uncertainty as we started each of the last couple of years, and we ended up having two really, really outstanding years as a company, and we've proven that we have been able to overcome challenges as we move through the year.

我確實知道——過去幾年我們剛開始的時候都存在相當多的不確定性，但作為一家公司，我們最終度過了非常非常出色的兩年，而且我們已經證明我們能夠克服這些不確定性我們在這一年中面臨的挑戰。

So we'll just be watchful on it.

所以我們只會對此保持警惕。

We're just calling it like we see it today, Mike.

我們只是像今天看到的那樣稱呼它，麥克。

I mean, we don't have any probably any more detail on the macro than you guys would but that's how we're seeing it today.

我的意思是，我們可能沒有比你們更詳細的宏觀訊息，但這就是我們今天所看到的。

The backlog is number one for us.

積壓訂單對我們來說是第一位的。

We look at where those backlog margins are at, what we're currently selling at and what our expectations are on the cost side.

我們會研究積壓訂單的利潤率、我們目前的銷售價格以及我們對成本的預期。

And when we correlate all those things, we came up with our guidance numbers.

當我們將所有這些事情關聯起來時，我們得出了指導數字。

But that's why it's a range.

但這就是為什麼它是一個範圍。

And I think that's why it's updated every quarter, and we'll see as we go through the year.

我認為這就是為什麼它每個季度都會更新，我們會在一年中看到。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And then just a quick one, just to make sure I heard it right in response to the step early question.

然後快速說一句，只是為了確保我聽到的是對早期問題的正確回答。

The pace assumptions, did you say for the year, the right assumption or what you're currently planning for is about flat on a per community basis.

您是否說過今年的步伐假設，正確的假設或您目前的計劃在每個社區的基礎上大致持平。

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, look, the one thing we've always really careful about is on trying to forecast order rates.

我的意思是，你看，我們一直非常小心的一件事就是嘗試預測訂單率。

Right now, the most important thing for us is order rates through the end of the spring selling season, that basically sets up the full-year revenues, and we have better visibility into those numbers.

目前，對我們來說最重要的是春季銷售季結束時的訂單率，這基本上決定了全年收入，我們對這些數字有更好的了解。

Again, working out of off our backlog, we'd like the build-to-order model partially for that reason that we do have visibility in the future.

同樣，在處理完我們的積壓工作後，我們希望採用按訂單生產模式，部分原因是我們在未來確實有可見性。

But we'll see where spring goes.

但我們會看看春天會去哪裡。

And depending on the spring selling season, I think we'll get a better feel for the year, both in terms of overall absorption pace as well as housing revenues.

根據春季銷售季節，我認為我們會對今年有更好的感覺，無論是在整體吸收速度還是住房收入方面。

And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。