KB Home (KBH) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

午安.

My name is John, and I'll be your conference operator today.

我叫約翰，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

I would like to welcome everyone to the KB Home 2024 third quarter earnings conference call.

歡迎大家參加 KB Home 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Today's conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay at the company's website, kbhome.com, through October 24, 2024.

（操作員說明）今天的電話會議正在錄製中，並將在 2024 年 10 月 24 日之前在公司網站 kbhome.com 上重播。

And now, I would like to turn the call over to Jill Peters, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁吉爾彼得斯 (Jill Peters)。

Thank you, Jill.

謝謝你，吉爾。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to review our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024.

大家下午好，感謝您今天加入我們回顧我們 2024 財年第三季的業績。

On the call are Jeff Mezger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Rob McGibney, President and Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Kaminski , Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Bill Hollinger, Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer.

董事長兼執行長 Jeff Mezger 出席了電話會議；麥吉布尼 (Rob McGibney)，總裁兼營運長；傑夫‧卡明斯基（Jeff Kaminski），執行副總裁兼財務長；比爾‧霍林格（Bill Hollinger），資深副總裁兼首席會計長。

During this call, items will be discussed that are considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在本次電話會議中，將討論 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內被視為前瞻性陳述的項目。

These statements are not guarantees of future results, and the company does not undertake any obligation to update them.

這些陳述不是對未來結果的保證，本公司不承擔任何更新義務。

Due to various factors, including those detailed in today's press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, actual results could be materially different from those stated or implied in the forward-looking statements.

由於各種因素，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

In addition, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measure of adjusted housing gross profit margin, which excludes inventory-related charges, and any other non-GAAP measure referenced during today's discussion to its most directly comparable GAAP measure can be found in today's press release and or on the Investor Relations page of our website at kbhome.com.

此外，調整後房屋毛利率的非公認會計準則衡量標準（不包括庫存相關費用）以及今天討論中引用的任何其他非公認會計準則衡量標準與其最直接可比的公認會計準則衡量標準的調節可以在今天的新聞稿中找到和/或在我們網站 kbhome.com 的投資者關係頁面上。

And with that, here is Jeff Mezger.

以下是傑夫·梅茲格的報導。

Thank you, Jill.

謝謝你，吉爾。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

We achieved double-digit year-oer-year growth in revenues and diluted earnings per share in the third quarter.

第三季我們的營收和稀釋每股盈餘實現了兩位數的年成長。

With these results, and our expectations for the remainder of this year, we believe we are well-positioned to produce about $6.9 billion in revenues in 2024 at a gross margin exceeding 21%.

憑藉這些結果以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期，我們相信我們有能力在 2024 年實現約 69 億美元的收入，毛利率超過 21%。

As we work to finish the year strong, we remain focused on growing our community count, maintaining our high levels of customer satisfaction, and executing our personalized built-to-order model, offering customers choice and flexibility based on what they value and can afford.

在我們努力強勁地結束這一年的同時，我們仍然專注於增加社區數量，保持高水平的客戶滿意度，並執行個性化的按訂單生產模式，根據客戶的價值和承受能力為他們提供選擇和靈活性。

As for the details of our results, we generated total revenues of over $1.75 billion and diluted earnings per share of $2.04. We delivered more homes during the quarter than we had anticipated as cancellation rates remained low and our build times have compressed.

至於我們的業績詳情，我們的總收入超過 17.5 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 2.04 美元。我們在本季交付的房屋數量超出了我們的預期，因為取消率仍然很低，而且我們的建造時間也有所壓縮。

Our gross margin was slightly lower than we have seen in the past two quarters at 20.6%, which we will provide some detail on in a moment.

我們的毛利率略低於過去兩個季度的 20.6%，我們稍後將提供一些詳細資訊。

Although our operating income margin was within our guided range at 10.8%, our performance drove our book value per share up 13% year-over-year.

儘管我們的營業利潤率處於 10.8% 的指導範圍內，但我們的業績推動每股帳面價值年增 13%。

Long-term housing market conditions remain positive, supported by an undersupply of new and resale homes, solid employment, wage growth, and favorable demographics and household formations.

長期住房市場狀況依然樂觀，這得益於新房和轉售房供應不足、穩定的就業、工資增長以及有利的人口結構和家庭結構。

Although resale inventory is rising in certain of our markets, it remains well below historically normalized levels, is very limited at our price points, and days on the market are still low.

儘管我們某些市場的轉售庫存正在上升，但仍遠低於歷史正常水平，在我們的價格點上非常有限，而且市場上的天數仍然很低。

We generated 3,085 net orders in the third quarter, flat with the year-ago period.

第三季我們產生了 3,085 份淨訂單，與去年同期持平。

Our monthly absorption pace per community of 4.1 homes was in line with our third quarter average over the past decade, although slightly below the 4.3 pace in last year's third quarter.

每個社區每月吸收 4.1 套住房的速度與過去十年第三季的平均水平一致，儘管略低於去年第三季 4.3 套的速度。

Our cancellation rate remained stable sequentially at a historically low level, indicating a solid pool of buyers ready and able to close on their homes when completed.

我們的取消率連續穩定在歷史低位，這表明有大量買家準備好並能夠在完成後關閉他們的房屋。

The desire for homeownership is strong, and we saw evidence of this during the third quarter, with higher year-over-year traffic within our communities and increased leads from our digital marketing efforts.

人們對擁有住房的渴望非常強烈，我們在第三季度看到了這方面的證據，社區內的流量同比增加，我們的數位行銷工作帶來的銷售線索也有所增加。

That said, buyers were hesitant, as interest rates remained elevated and concerns about a slowing economy increased, and demand began to soften in late June through July.

儘管如此，買家仍猶豫不決，因為利率仍居高不下，對經濟放緩的擔憂加劇，需求在 6 月下旬至 7 月開始疲軟。

In this environment, we took steps to adjust pricing as necessary to hold our pace.

在這種環境下，我們採取了必要的措施來調整定價，以保持我們的步伐。

Rates moderated in August and demand strengthened, with our weekly net orders improving sequentially in each of the last three weeks of August.

八月份的價格有所放緩，需求增強，我們的每週淨訂單量在八月份的最後三週中逐周有所改善。

We are encouraged by this positive trend, and we continue to see solid sales quarter-to-date in September.

我們對這一積極趨勢感到鼓舞，並且我們繼續看到 9 月至今的穩定銷售。

With the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 50 basis points last week, we believe this will further benefit consumer confidence and affordability.

隨著聯準會上週降息 50 個基點，我們相信這將進一步有利於消費者信心和負擔能力。

Given the soft comparison in the year-ago fourth quarter, even normal seasonality will produce a strong year-over-year comparison in our 2024 fourth quarter net orders, setting us up with momentum as we enter the new year.

鑑於去年第四季的疲軟比較，即使是正常的季節性因素，我們的 2024 年第四季淨訂單也會產生強勁的同比比較，為我們進入新的一年奠定了動力。

And with that, I'll pause for a moment and ask Rob to provide an operational update.

說到這裡，我將暫停片刻並請 Rob 提供操作更新。

Rob?

搶？

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

I will begin by providing additional color on our net order results.

我將首先為我們的淨訂單結果提供額外的顏色。

Although traffic increased 8% year-over-year, some buyers hesitated on their purchase decision due to concerns about transacting too early, given the uncertainty around interest rates, and news headlines fueling an expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

儘管流量年增 8%，但由於利率的不確定性以及新聞頭條加劇了聯準會降息的預期，一些買家擔心過早交易，因此對購買決定猶豫不決。

Ultimately, lower mortgage rates do help to stimulate demand, and we saw evidence of this in August, with net orders increasing sequentially week-by-week as the month progressed.

最終，較低的抵押貸款利率確實有助於刺激需求，我們在 8 月看到了這方面的證據，隨著該月的進展，淨訂單逐週增加。

While buyers are rate sensitive, we believe the primary motivation of most customers is to secure a home that meets their needs at the best price, not the biggest incentive or rate buy-down.

雖然買家對房價敏感，但我們相信大多數客戶的主要動機是以最優惠的價格獲得滿足其需求的房屋，而不是最大的誘因或房價下調。

Understanding this, and considering the price increases we had taken in most of our communities in the first half of this fiscal year, we strategically and selectively adjusted pricing at the community level as needed to stimulate demand and optimize the pace-price balance of each asset, which favorably impacted our net orders in August.

了解這一點，並考慮到本財年上半年我們大多數社區的價格上漲，我們根據需要在社區層面進行了戰略性和選擇性的調整，以刺激需求並優化每種資產的速度與價格平衡，這對我們8 月的淨訂單產生了有利影響。

Our pricing strategy focuses on offering the best possible price versus continually increasing incentives.

我們的定價策略專注於提供盡可能最好的價格，而不是不斷增加激勵措施。

Although we achieved the same gross margin by offering a reduction in price or an equivalent dollar value of incentives, buyers care about the price of the home, and our teams emphasize the value of the personalized home in the community more than an incentive or mortgage rate.

儘管我們透過提供降價或等值美元價值的激勵措施實現了相同的毛利率，但買家關心的是房屋的價格，而且我們的團隊更強調社區中個性化房屋的價值，而不是激勵或抵押貸款利率。

That said, we did continue to utilize mortgage concessions in the third quarter, with net orders that had some form of mortgage concession, whether a rate lock or a buy-down, in the low 60% range, consistent with the past three quarters.

也就是說，我們在第三季確實繼續利用抵押貸款優惠，淨訂單具有某種形式的抵押貸款優惠，無論是利率鎖定還是減持，都在60% 的低範圍內，與過去三個季度一致。

We began to reduce the dollar amount of mortgage concessions on our net orders in August, in conjunction with the lower prices that I just spoke of, and we expect to be able to lower our use of this incentive in the fourth quarter, considering improved affordability levels provided by the recent relief in mortgage rates.

我們從八月開始減少淨訂單的抵押貸款優惠金額，同時考慮到我剛才談到的較低價格，考慮到負擔能力的提高，我們預計能夠在第四季度減少對這一激勵措施的使用最近抵押貸款利率的降低所提供的水準。

As to mortgage concessions on homes delivered in the third quarter, they averaged just under 2% of housing revenues.

至於第三季交付的房屋的抵押貸款優惠，平均略低於房屋收入的 2%。

We started nearly 3,000 homes in the quarter, ending the quarter with over 7,700 homes in production, including models.

我們在本季開工了近 3,000 套住宅，到本季結束時已生產超過 7,700 套住宅，其中包括模型。

Our expectation is to end the year having started roughly 20% more homes in 2024 than we did in 2023.

我們的預期是，到 2024 年開工的房屋數量將比 2023 年增加約 20%。

Given our production, backlog, and lower build times, we have returned to more historical levels of converting our backlog to deliveries.

考慮到我們的生產、積壓訂單和較短的建造時間，我們已經回到了將積壓訂單轉化為交付的歷史水平。

Going forward, we plan to continue aligning our starts with sales, which will help keep our production in balance with the majority of those starts already sold.

展望未來，我們計劃繼續調整開工量與銷售量，這將有助於維持我們的產量與大部分已售出的開工量平衡。

Our build times on homes delivered during the quarter was about 150 days, a two-week improvement sequentially, and a factor in delivering more homes in the third quarter than we projected.

我們在本季度交付的房屋的建造時間約為 150 天，比上一季度縮短了兩週，這也是第三季度交付的房屋數量超出我們預期的因素。

Going forward, we are focused on continued progress to drive build times down to four months, which is the lower end of our historical range.

展望未來，我們的重點是持續取得進展，將建置時間縮短至四個月，這是我們歷史範圍的下限。

We reduced costs on our homes started during the third quarter, which were down sequentially in a low single-digit range, helping to offset the impact of pricing changes, incentives, and land costs.

我們從第三季開始降低了房屋成本，該成本連續下降在較低的個位數範圍內，有助於抵消價格變化、激勵措施和土地成本的影響。

The categories where we have seen the biggest changes recently are in lumber and stucco.

我們最近看到變化最大的類別是木材和灰泥。

We are aggressively pursuing additional opportunities to further reduce our direct costs, enhancing affordability, and expanding our reach to a wider range of potential customers.

我們正在積極尋求更多機會，以進一步降低直接成本、提高負擔能力並將我們的業務範圍擴大到更廣泛的潛在客戶。

Before I wrap up, I will review the credit metrics of our buyers who financed their mortgages through our joint venture, KBHS Home Loans.

在結束之前，我將回顧透過我們的合資企業 KBHS Home Loans 提供抵押貸款的買家的信用指標。

We had a solid year-over-year increase in our capture rate, with 88% of the mortgages funded during the quarter having been financed through our joint venture, as compared to 84% in the prior year quarter.

我們的捕獲率較去年同期穩定成長，本季 88% 的抵押貸款是透過我們的合資企業融資的，而去年同期為 84%。

Higher capture rates help us manage our backlog more effectively and provide more visibility in closings, which benefits our company as well as our buyers.

更高的捕獲率有助於我們更有效地管理積壓訂單，並提供更多的結案可見性，這對我們的公司和買家都有好處。

In addition, we see higher customer satisfaction levels from buyers who use KBHS versus other lenders.

此外，我們發現使用 KBHS 的買家比其他貸款人的客戶滿意度更高。

The average cash-down payment was stable both sequentially and year-over-year at 16%, equating to about $77,000.

平均現金首付款環比和年比均穩定在 16%，相當於約 77,000 美元。

On average, the household income of customers who use KBHS was nearly $133,000, and they had a FICO score of 742.

平均而言，使用 KBHS 的客戶的家庭收入接近 133,000 美元，他們的 FICO 評分為 742。

Even with about one-half of our customers purchasing their first home, we are attracting buyers who can qualify for their mortgage while making a significant down payment.

即使我們大約有一半的客戶購買了他們的第一套房子，我們仍然吸引了那些有資格獲得抵押貸款同時支付大筆首付的買家。

As we head into year-end, we do so with a continued daily emphasis on maintaining our high customer satisfaction levels, further improving build times, and value engineering our products to lower direct costs.

當我們進入年底時，我們每天都會持續強調保持高客戶滿意度，進一步縮短建造時間，並重視對我們的產品進行工程設計以降低直接成本。

Our objectives remain consistent in increasing our scale, profitability, and returns.

我們的目標始終如一，即擴大規模、獲利能力和回報。

We expect to execute on these goals by reinvesting in our growth, opening our communities on time, offering a compelling value proposition to our customers, and optimizing each asset on a community-by-community basis to increase our margins and returns.

我們希望透過對我們的成長進行再投資、按時開放我們的社群、為我們的客戶提供令人信服的價值主張以及逐個社群地優化每項資產以增加我們的利潤和回報來實現這些目標。

And with that, I will turn the call back over to Jeff.

然後，我會將電話轉回給傑夫。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

During the quarter, we invested $845 million in land acquisition and development, an increase of over 50% year-over-year, with more than $425 million going toward acquiring new land.

本季度，我們在土地收購和開發方面投入了 8.45 億美元，年成長超過 50%，其中超過 4.25 億美元用於收購新土地。

Year-to-date, we have invested $2.1 billion in acquiring and developing land, more than we spent in all of Fiscal '23.

今年迄今為止，我們已投資 21 億美元用於收購和開發土地，比 23 財年全年的支出還要多。

As we continue to accelerate our land investment in 2024, we remain diligent with respect to our underwriting criteria, product strategy, and price points.

隨著我們在 2024 年繼續加快土地投資，我們在承保標準、產品策略和價格點方面仍然保持謹慎。

We increased our lot position 21% year-over-year, ending the quarter with over 69,000 lots owned or controlled, positioning the company for future growth.

我們的地塊部位年增了 21%，截至本季末，我們擁有或控制了超過 69,000 塊地塊，為公司未來的成長做好了準備。

Overall, we remain focused on capital efficiency, developing lots in smaller phases wherever possible, balancing development with our start space to manage our inventory of finished lots.

總體而言，我們仍然專注於資本效率，盡可能以較小的階段開發地塊，平衡開發與我們的起始空間以管理我們的成品地塊庫存。

The composition of our land portfolio is strong, aligned with our product and pricing strategy, and provides opportunities for us to gain share in our served markets.

我們的土地投資組合構成強大，與我們的產品和定價策略保持一致，並為我們提供了在所服務的市場中獲得份額的機會。

In addition to growing our established divisions, we are also beginning to see solid growth in our newest markets, Boise and Charlotte, as well as Seattle, which had its first deliveries only five years ago and is already on the cusp of a top three market share position.

除了發展我們現有的部門外，我們也開始看到博伊西和夏洛特以及西雅圖等最新市場的穩健成長，西雅圖僅在五年前首次交付，現已躋身前三名市場分享立場。

These three divisions are a great representation of our geographic expansion strategy, as we can absorb the overhead costs of a new market entry in our existing business, and as these new markets mature, they become meaningful contributors to our results.

這三個部門很好地體現了我們的地域擴張策略，因為我們可以吸收現有業務進入新市場的間接費用，並且隨著這些新市場的成熟，它們將為我們的業績做出有意義的貢獻。

We maintain a balanced approach in allocating our cash, enabling us to meaningfully reinvest in our growth, which remains our top priority, while also returning capital to stockholders.

我們在分配現金方面保持平衡，使我們能夠對成長進行有意義的再投資，這仍然是我們的首要任務，同時也將資本返還給股東。

With the $150 million in share repurchases that we completed in our third quarter, the highest quarterly amount this year, we have already achieved the increased level of buybacks for the year that we shared on our last earnings call.

我們在第三季完成了 1.5 億美元的股票回購，這是今年最高的季度金額，我們已經實現了我們在上次財報電話會議上分享的本年度回購水準的提高。

We do plan to continue repurchasing our shares in the remainder of this fiscal year, and intend for it to be an ongoing part of our capital allocation plans beyond 2024.

我們確實計劃在本財年剩餘時間內繼續回購我們的股票，並打算將其作為我們 2024 年之後資本配置計劃的持續組成部分。

Since we began repurchasing shares on a regular basis in 2021, we have repurchased more than 24% of the shares then outstanding, accretive to both our diluted earnings per share and return on equity.

自2021年我們開始定期回購股票以來，我們已經回購了超過24%的當時已發行股票，這增加了我們的稀釋每股收益和股本回報率。

Over that time frame, we have returned nearly $1.2 billion in cash to our stockholders, including dividends.

在此期間，我們已向股東返還近 12 億美元現金，包括股息。

In closing, I want to recognize the entire KB Home team for their commitment to serving our homebuyers and contributing to our performance in the third quarter.

最後，我要感謝整個 KB Home 團隊致力於為我們的購屋者提供服務並為我們第三季的業績做出貢獻。

Our company is well positioned for future growth as we meaningfully invest in the expansion of our business and diversify our geographic footprint.

我們的公司為未來的成長做好了充分的準備，因為我們對業務擴張進行了有意義的投資，並使我們的地理足跡多樣化。

We have an experienced management team and a business model that provides customers choice and flexibility in purchasing a home that meets their needs and budgets.

我們擁有經驗豐富的管理團隊和商業模式，為客戶提供選擇和靈活性，以購買滿足其需求和預算的房屋。

With about two months remaining in this fiscal year, we are on track to achieve about $6.9 billion in revenues with the highest level of deliveries in many years, which will drive well over $8 in diluted earnings per share, representing significant year-over-year growth.

在本財年還剩下大約兩個月的時間裡，我們預計將實現約 69 億美元的收入和多年來最高的交付水平，這將推動稀釋後每股收益遠超過 8 美元，同比增長顯著生長。

This increase in scale and profitability, together with the favorable impact of share repurchases, will contribute to a return on equity of around 16.5%.

規模和獲利能力的提升，加上股票回購的有利影響，將有助於實現約16.5%的股本回報率。

As we look ahead to fiscal 2025, our initial guidance for revenue next year is about $7.5 billion.

展望 2025 財年，我們對明年營收的初步指引約為 75 億美元。

We are committed to enhancing stockholder value by profitably expanding our volume, driving higher returns, as well as continuing to return cash to stockholders through both share repurchases and our quarterly dividend.

我們致力於透過擴大銷售量、提高回報以及繼續透過股票回購和季度股利向股東返還現金來提高股東價值。

With that, I now turn the call over to Jeff for the financial review.

現在，我將電話轉給傑夫進行財務審查。

Jeff?

傑夫？

Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝傑夫，大家下午好。

I will now review highlights of our financial performance for the 2024 third quarter and provide our current outlook for the fourth quarter and full year.

我現在將回顧我們 2024 年第三季財務業績的亮點，並提供我們目前對第四季和全年的展望。

We are pleased with our execution during the third quarter, as our housing revenues increased 11% compared to the prior year and reached the high end of our guidance range.

我們對第三季的執行情況感到滿意，因為我們的住房收入比上一年增長了 11%，達到了我們指導範圍的高端。

Combined with our healthy operating margin of nearly 11%, we generated robust cash flow that enabled us in the quarter to invest approximately $845 million in land and development and return roughly $168 million to our stockholders through share repurchases and our quarterly dividend.

加上我們近11% 的健康營業利潤率，我們產生了強勁的現金流，使我們能夠在本季度投資約8.45 億美元用於土地和開發，並透過股票回購和季度股息向股東返還約1.68億美元。

Our housing revenues grew to $1.75 billion for the quarter compared to $1.57 billion for the prior year period.

本季我們的住房收入增至 17.5 億美元，而去年同期為 15.7 億美元。

The growth in our overall housing revenue was driven by increases of 8% in the number of homes delivered and 3% in their overall average selling price.

我們整體住房收入的成長是由交付房屋數量成長 8% 和整體平均售價成長 3% 所推動的。

Our third quarter deliveries of 3,631 represented a backlog conversion rate of 58%, a significant improvement from 46% in the year earlier period.

第三季交車量為 3,631 件，積壓訂單轉換率為 58%，比去年同期的 46% 顯著提高。

Our current quarterly quarter delivery performance was favorably impacted by continued improvements in construction cycle time and lower cancellation rates.

我們目前的季度交付業績受到施工週期時間持續改善和取消率降低的有利影響。

We anticipate these factors will also benefit our fourth quarter deliveries and have considered them in our guidance.

我們預計這些因素也將有利於我們第四季度的交付，並已在我們的指導中考慮到它們。

Based on our current backlog and expected construction cycle times, we project our 2024 fourth quarter housing revenues will be in a range of $1.94 billion to $2.04 billion.

根據我們目前的積壓訂單和預期的施工週期時間，我們預計 2024 年第四季的住房收入將在 19.4 億美元至 20.4 億美元之間。

In the third quarter, our overall average selling price of homes delivered was approximately $481,000, up from approximately $466,000 in the prior year period.

第三季度，我們交付的房屋總體平均售價約為 481,000 美元，高於去年同期的約 466,000 美元。

This increase primarily reflected a mixed shift in homes delivered towards our higher priced West Coast region.

這一增長主要反映了向價格較高的西海岸地區交付的房屋的混合變化。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we are projecting a year-over-year increase of $23,000 in the overall average selling price to approximately $510,000, mainly driven, as in the third quarter, by an expected higher proportion of deliveries from our West Coast region.

展望第四季度，我們預計整體平均售價將年增 23,000 美元，達到約 510,000 美元，與第三季度一樣，這主要是由於西海岸地區的交付比例預計更高。

Our home building operating income for the third quarter increased to $189 million, as compared to $179 million for the year earlier period, operating income margin of 10.8% compared to 11.3% in the prior year.

我們第三季的住宅建築營業收入增至 1.89 億美元，去年同期為 1.79 億美元，營業利潤率為 10.8%，去年同期為 11.3%。

For the fourth quarter, we expect improvements in both our housing gross margin and SG&A expense ratio to drive expansion in our home building operating income margin to the range of 11.4% to 11.8%, assuming no inventory-related charges, representing both a sequential and year-over-year improvement.

對於第四季度，我們預計房屋毛利率和 SG&A 費用率的改善將推動我們的住宅建築營業利潤率擴大至 11.4% 至 11.8%（假設沒有庫存相關費用）逐年改善。

Our housing gross profit margin for the quarter was 20.6%, as compared to 21.5% for the prior year period.

本季我們的房屋毛利率為 20.6%，去年同期為 21.5%。

The margin result relative to the prior year was primarily due to product and geographic mixed shift of homes delivered, along with other factors, including the impact of pricing adjustments to support demand, partly offset by reduced total homebuyer incentives.

與前一年相比，利潤率結果主要是由於交付房屋的產品和地理混合變化，以及其他因素，包括為支持需求而進行的定價調整的影響，但部分被購房者激勵措施的減少所抵消。

The mixed impact mainly resulted from a higher percentage of revenues in the West Coast region, with gross margins below the company average.

影響好壞參半的主要原因是西海岸地區的收入比例較高，而毛利率低於公司平均值。

Excluding inventory-related charges of $1.2 million in the quarter and $0.6 million a year ago, our margin of 20.7% for the quarter was down 80 basis points year-over-year.

不包括本季 120 萬美元和去年同期 60 萬美元的庫存相關費用，本季 20.7% 的利潤率年減 80 個基點。

We expect to see a sequential improvement in our fourth quarter gross margin.

我們預計第四季毛利率將持續改善。

Assuming no inventory-related charges, we believe our fourth quarter housing gross profit margin will be in the range of 21% to 21.4%.

假設不計入庫存相關費用，我們認為第四季度房屋毛利率將在 21% 至 21.4% 之間。

Our selling general and administrative expense ratio of 9.8% for the quarter improved by 40 basis points, as compared to 10.2% in the prior year, primarily due to increased operating leverage from higher housing revenues.

本季我們的銷售一般費用和管理費用率為 9.8%，比去年同期的 10.2% 提高了 40 個基點，這主要是由於住房收入增加導致營運槓桿增加。

Supported by another expected sequential increase in quarterly housing revenues, we believe our SG&A expense ratio will further improve in the fourth quarter to approximately 9.6%.

在季度住房收入預期環比增長的支持下，我們相信第四季度的銷售、管理及行政費用率將進一步改善至約 9.6%。

Our income tax expense for the third quarter of $50.1 million represented an effective tax rate of 24.2%, compared to 22.9% for the prior year period.

第三季所得稅費用為 5,010 萬美元，有效稅率為 24.2%，而去年同期為 22.9%。

We expect our effective tax rate for the 2024 fourth quarter to be approximately 24%.

我們預計 2024 年第四季的有效稅率約為 24%。

Overall, we reported net income for the third quarter of $157.3 million, or $2.04 per diluted share, compared to $149.9 million, or $1.80 per diluted share for the prior year period.

總體而言，我們報告第三季淨利潤為 1.573 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 2.04 美元，而去年同期淨利潤為 1.499 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.80 美元。

The 13% increase in our diluted earnings per share reflected higher earnings as well as the stock repurchases we have completed over the past several quarters.

我們的稀釋每股收益成長了 13%，反映出收益的增加以及我們在過去幾季完成的股票回購。

Turning now to community count, our third quarter average of 251 increased 5% from the year earlier quarter.

現在轉向社區數量，第三季的平均社區數量為 251 個，比去年同期增加了 5%。

We ended the quarter with 254 communities open for sales, up 10%, as compared to 230 communities at the end of the 2023 third quarter.

本季末，我們有 254 個社區可供銷售，比 2023 年第三季末的 230 個社區成長了 10%。

We still believe our 2024 year-end community count will be in the range of 250 to 255, resulting in a 7% to 8% increase in the fourth quarter average community count.

我們仍然相信 2024 年底社區數量將在 250 至 255 個範圍內，導致第四季度平均社區數量增加 7% 至 8%。

As Jeff mentioned, we invested $845 million in land and development during the third quarter, a significant increase from the same quarter of the prior year. 50% of the current quarter investment represented new land acquisitions, contributing to the growth in our land pipeline to over 69,000 lots at quarter end, of which 58% were owned and 42% were under contract.

正如傑夫所提到的，我們第三季在土地和開發方面投資了 8.45 億美元，比去年同期大幅增加。本季投資的 50% 是新土地收購，導致我們的土地儲備在季度末增加到超過 69,000 個地塊，其中 58% 為自有土地，42% 為合約土地。

At quarter end, we had total liquidity of $1.46 billion, including $375 million of cash and $1.08 billion available under our unsecured revolving credit facility, with no cash borrowings outstanding.

截至季末，我們的流動性總額為 14.6 億美元，其中包括 3.75 億美元現金和無擔保循環信貸額度下可用的 10.8 億美元，沒有未償還的現金借款。

During the third quarter, in addition to significantly increasing our land investments, we repurchased roughly 1.9 million shares of our common stock at a total cost of $150 million, while maintaining our historic low leverage ratio of 29.8%.

第三季度，除了大幅增加土地投資外，我們還以總成本 1.5 億美元回購了約 190 萬股普通股，同時維持了 29.8% 的歷史低槓桿率。

With $800 million remaining under our current common stock repurchase authorization, we intend to continue to repurchase shares with the pace, volume, and timing based on considerations of our operating cash flow, liquidity outlook, land investment opportunities and needs, the market price of our shares, and the housing market and general economic environments.

目前我們的普通股回購授權還剩8 億美元，我們打算根據我們的營運現金流、流動性前景、土地投資機會和需求、我們的股票的市場價格等因素，繼續回購股票，其速度、數量和時機股票、房地產市場和總體經濟環境。

Year-to-date, we repurchased 3.46 million shares at an average cost of $72.24 per share, helping to drive an improvement in our expected four-year return on equity to approximately 16.5%.

年初至今，我們以每股 72.24 美元的平均成本回購了 346 萬股股票，幫助我們將預期四年股本回報率提高至約 16.5%。

In summary, we are pleased with our solid third quarter financial performance and operational execution, and believe we are well positioned to both achieve our goals for the 2024 fourth quarter and drive higher housing revenues in 2025.

總之，我們對第三季穩健的財務表現和營運執行感到滿意，並相信我們有能力實現 2024 年第四季的目標，並在 2025 年推動更高的房屋收入。

Using the midpoints of our fourth quarter guidance, we expect four-year housing revenues of approximately $6.9 billion, with an operating income margin of over 11%, exceeding both our 2023 results and our initial expectations for 2024 as shared during our January earnings call.

根據我們第四季度指引的中點，我們預計四年住房收入約為69 億美元，營業利潤率超過11%，超過我們2023 年的業績以及我們在1 月份財報電話會議上分享的對2024 年的初步預期。

As Jeff mentioned, we also expect growth in our 2025 housing revenues, reaching approximately $7.5 billion.

正如傑夫所提到的，我們也預計 2025 年住房收入將成長，達到約 75 億美元。

We believe our ongoing focus on accelerating profitable growth and expanding our returns by leveraging our larger scale, strong community portfolio, and uniquely compelling built-to-order business model will produce measurable expansion in our book value per share and enhance long-term stockholder value.

我們相信，透過利用我們更大的規模、強大的社區投資組合和獨特的、引人注目的按訂單構建的業務模式，我們持續專注於加速盈利增長和擴大回報，這將使我們的每股賬面價值顯著成長，並提高長期股東價值。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

John, please open the lines.

約翰，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·博利，巴克萊銀行。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

Maybe I'll start on that $7.5 billion revenue outlook for 2025, see if we can unpack that a little bit.

也許我會從 2025 年 75 億美元的營收前景開始，看看我們是否可以稍微解釋一下。

It sounds like you're talking to an ASP of around $510,000 here in Q4 due to mix, but I'm not sure if we should really draw that into next year.

聽起來，由於混合因素，您正在談論的第四季度平均售價約為 510,000 美元，但我不確定我們是否真的應該將其納入明年。

So I guess when you talk about $7.5 billion, is this going to be more kind of volume-driven, price-driven, and I guess how does the community growth sort of play into that volume side?

所以我想當你談論 75 億美元時，這是否會更多地由數量驅動、價格驅動，我想社區的增長如何影響數量方面？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, on a high level, Matt, we decided to provide some high-level guidance this quarter.

是的，在高水平上，馬特，我們決定在本季度提供一些高水準的指導。

We believe our community count, our backlog, our starts, our absorption assumptions all support our estimate of the $7.5 billion.

我們相信我們的社區數量、我們的積壓、我們的啟動、我們的吸收假設都支持我們對 75 億美元的估計。

Given where we're at today economically and particularly with some of the uncertainty, around what the Fed actions will be for the rest of the year, the election results and macroeconomic, geopolitical, et cetera, et cetera, we decided to keep it very high level and really keep our guidance really only that top-line number.

考慮到我們今天的經濟狀況，特別是圍繞聯準會今年剩餘時間的行動、選舉結果以及宏觀經濟、地緣政治等方面的一些不確定性，我們決定保持非常積極的態度。指導僅保留在頂線數字上。

So at this point in time, we're not going to provide a lot of detail or dive into some of the components of it.

因此，目前我們不會提供太多細節或深入探討其中的某些組件。

As typical, you see pretty much all of the above usually when you're driving volume, from the point of view of absorption growth, community count, and price.

通常，當您提高銷售量時，從吸收量成長、社群數量和價格的角度來看，您通常會看到上述所有內容。

It's probably fair to assume the same for next year, but we're going to wait until we come back to you guys in January and discuss all of our key metrics and guidance and expectations at that point in time like we normally do.

假設明年也是如此，這可能是公平的，但我們會等到一月份回到你們身邊，並像往常一樣及時討論我們所有的關鍵指標、指導和期望。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Thanks for that, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

Secondly, you mentioned your strategy of sort of focusing on adjusting home prices rather than really toggling incentives to a significant degree, if I heard you correctly.

其次，如果我沒聽錯的話，你提到你的策略是專注於調整房價，而不是在很大程度上改變激勵措施。

Obviously, now you've got lower mortgage rates relative to a few months ago.

顯然，與幾個月前相比，現在的抵押貸款利率較低。

So, my question is really around how you will approach a lower-rate environment between -- it sounds like you're willing to kind of pull back a little on the mortgage concessions here in Q4, but what should we expect around home prices, right?

所以，我的問題實際上是圍繞著你將如何應對較低利率的環境——聽起來你願意在第四季度稍微縮減抵押貸款優惠，但我們對房價應該有什麼期望，正確的？

How did that trend as you got into August, as you did start to see demand improve?

當你進入八月時，隨著你確實開始看到需求改善，這種趨勢是如何的？

And is there a scenario where you could, sort of turn around here and start adjusting home prices in the other direction, given where rates have gone, or is that a little bit too early?

考慮到利率的變化，是否存在一種情況，你可以從這裡轉向並開始向另一個方向調整房價，或者這有點太早了？

Any color on how you're going to approach that lower-rate environment?

您對如何應對低利率環境有什麼看法嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rob, you want to take that?

羅布，你想要那個嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So, obviously, lower rates are good for us.

因此，顯然，較低的利率對我們有利。

They're good for the consumer, for our buyer.

它們對消費者、對我們的買家都有好處。

Affordability has been a big challenge.

負擔能力一直是個巨大的挑戰。

Rates have been a big piece of that, so we're certainly happy to see them come down.

利率是其中很大一部分，所以我們當然很高興看到利率下降。

As we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we are focused on selling the home and the value of that home versus just, who can offer the biggest buy-down or the biggest mortgage incentive.

正如我們在準備好的演講中所提到的，我們專注於出售房屋和房屋的價值，而不僅僅是誰可以提供最大的購買或最大的抵押貸款激勵。

And we put that in play throughout the quarter.

我們在整個季度都在發揮這一作用。

June started off fairly strong from a sales perspective, and then it got weaker as we moved through the latter part of June, a little weaker still in July, and then better in August.

從銷售角度來看，6 月一開始相當強勁，然後隨著 6 月下旬的成長而減弱，7 月仍稍弱一些，8 月則有所好轉。

And as we've done that, as the market was weakening, we found the need to lower prices in some of our communities to drive pace and to optimize that asset.

正如我們所做的那樣，隨著市場疲軟，我們發現需要降低一些社區的價格，以加快步伐並優化該資產。

At the same time, we had others where we were lifting price again.

同時，我們也再次提高了其他產品的價格。

So, it really just gets to managing each asset individually and what that buyer needs or what that community needs to hit the volume levels that we're pursuing and to optimize each of those assets.

因此，實際上只需單獨管理每個資產以及買家需要什麼或社區需要什麼來達到我們追求的數量水平並優化每個資產。

But certainly, as rates come down and if they continue to come down, we expect to be able to lower our incentives and do that without having to further lower revenue, which should expand our overall gross margins on orders.

但當然，隨著費率下降，如果繼續下降，我們預計能夠降低我們的激勵措施，並且不必進一步降低收入，這應該會擴大我們的訂單整體毛利率。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金，Evercore ISI。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks very much, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

I'm going to follow up on Matthew's question.

我將跟進馬修的問題。

Just because that $7.5 billion is a really encouraging figure, and it implies closings probably of $15,000 or more.

僅僅因為 75 億美元是一個非常令人鼓舞的數字，這意味著成交額可能達到 15,000 美元或更多。

And so, you know, you've talked about -- I think you addressed absorptions.

所以，你知道，你談到了——我認為你談到了專注。

I just want to make sure that I'm understanding the interplay of absorptions and community count from this point forward.

我只是想確保從現在開始我理解吸收率和社區數量之間的相互作用。

Is it right that you think that there's headroom on your absorptions from the level that you're, currently at?

您是否認為您的吸收能力與目前的水平相比還有上升空間？

And in terms of community count, it's going to be, I think, kind of flattish, here in the next couple of months.

就社群數量而言，我認為在接下來的幾個月裡，社群數量將會持平。

But when is this inflection in community count likely to happen?

但社區數量的這種變化何時可能發生？

Is it imminent or is it something that you expect to sort of, reach by the end of next year?

它是迫在眉睫的還是您期望在明年年底之前實現的？

Yeah, like we said, [Steve], we're not really going to comment too much more in detail on the outlook for next year.

是的，就像我們說的，[史蒂夫]，我們實際上不會對明年的前景發表太多更詳細的評論。

We wanted to range, the top line target for the company and let you guys know where we're heading.

我們想要確定公司的最高目標，並讓大家知道我們的前進方向。

I think a lot will play out here over the next few months with the macroeconomic situation, particularly as we get through the election cycle and whatnot.

我認為在接下來的幾個月裡，宏觀經濟狀況將會發生很多事情，特別是當我們經歷選舉週期之類的時候。

And we look forward to hopefully a very strong spring selling season.

我們期待著一個非常強勁的春季銷售季節。

You know, as far as absorptions and room on absorptions, yeah, there's always room for us to improve in that area.

你知道，就吸收和吸收空間而言，是的，我們在該領域總是有改進的空間。

We've had to, as we've talked quite a bit, quite extensively over the last several quarters.

正如我們在過去幾個季度中已經談過很多次、非常廣泛的那樣，我們必須這樣做。

We're not an incentive-based company.

我們不是一家以激勵為基礎的公司。

We've had to incentivize a bit on the mortgage rate more than we'd like to.

我們不得不對抵押貸款利率進行比我們想要的更多的激勵。

And as demand conditions improve and as the rate, hopefully the mortgage rates start coming down, we see less need to do that.

隨著需求狀況的改善以及利率（希望抵押貸款利率開始下降），我們認為這樣做的必要性越來越小。

And we do think that will be a demand driver going into next year.

我們確實認為這將成為明年的需求驅動因素。

From a personal point of view, look, I don't have a crystal ball any more than any of you do.

從個人角度來看，我和你們一樣沒有水晶球。

But with a lower rate environment and given that the consumer has been a little more conditioned on these higher rates the past couple of years or so, we're expecting to see a pretty strong spring selling season given the right conditions.

但在較低的利率環境下，並且考慮到消費者在過去幾年左右的時間裡對這些較高的利率更加適應，我們預計在適當的條件下會看到相當強勁的春季銷售季節。

But there's a lot of ground to cover before we get to that point.

但在我們到達這一點之前，還有很多基礎知識需要討論。

So we're kind of holding back on a lot of the details until we have more visibility into the macro.

因此，在我們對宏觀有更多了解之前，我們會保留很多細節。

But we did want to kind of range out next year for you.

但我們確實想為您制定明年的範圍。

So just please forgive us for lack of details at this point.

因此，請原諒我們目前缺乏細節。

Like I said, we'll provide a lot more in January when we come back to you.

正如我所說，當我們在一月份回覆您時，我們將提供更多資訊。

Great.

偉大的。

Well, I mean, it's certainly a higher level of revenues than I think most people were looking for.

嗯，我的意思是，這肯定比我認為大多數人所尋求的收入水平要高。

So that is encouraging to hear that you're targeting that level and you see the internal opportunity for it.

因此，聽到您以該級別為目標並且看到了內部機會，這令人鼓舞。

From a longer term perspective, I wanted to talk about your margin.

從更長遠的角度來看，我想談談你的利潤。

If I think about your operating margin, I know over the past several years, you've had issues like, the mothballed communities, you had your interest expense running through cost of goods sold.

如果我考慮一下你的營業利潤率，我知道在過去的幾年裡，你遇到了諸如封存社區之類的問題，你的利息費用計入了銷售商品的成本。

And, by the time at this point, I think most of those issues are kind of behind you and things have improved.

而且，到此時為止，我認為大多數問題都已成為過去，並且情況已經有所改善。

So I'm trying to figure out whether or not the long term operating margin opportunity for the company is materially higher than where you're at today.

因此，我試圖弄清楚該公司的長期營業利潤率是否遠高於目前的水平。

Call it like 11% or so or not.

稱其為 11% 左右或不稱其為 11% 左右。

So can you give us a sense for what you think is kind of an appropriate long term operating margin range for the company?

那麼您能否告訴我們您認為適合公司的長期營業利潤範圍是多少？

Sure.

當然。

So I'll talk maybe non-quantitative a little bit on this one.

所以我會就這個問題進行一些非定量的討論。

But, as we have a lot of focus on growing our scale through obviously through market share gains, through growing community count, and hopefully we'll see some market expansion as well with, affordability maybe coming a little more favorable for the consumer.

但是，由於我們非常注重透過增加市場份額、增加社區數量來擴大我們的規模，希望我們也能看到一些市場擴張，因此消費者的負擔能力可能會更加有利。

We think with that additional scale, there's certainly upside in operating margin.

我們認為，隨著規模的擴大，營業利潤率肯定會有上升的空間。

You've seen us break, that double digit, that 10% mark on the SG&A ratio here for several quarters.

您已經看到我們的 SG&A 比率連續幾季突破了兩位數、10% 的大關。

And we think that's attainable, especially with a higher top line.

我們認為這是可以實現的，尤其是在收入較高的情況下。

And with the margins where they've been trending over the past 12 months, given that we've been offering a lot of incentives at the same time, just purely just a pullback in incentives at the same price points that we have today could add incrementally to the gross margin.

鑑於過去 12 個月的利潤率趨勢，考慮到我們同時提供了許多激勵措施，純粹只是在與今天相同的價格點上減少激勵措施，可以增加逐步提高毛利率。

So short of guiding where we're going next year on that operating margin, I think there is potential for the company to improve in that area.

由於缺乏指導我們明年在營業利潤率方面的發展方向，我認為該公司在該領域有改進的潛力。

It's certainly the goal of the company to improve in that area.

公司的目標當然是在該領域進行改進。

And we'll see, again, based on the macro environment if we can get there.

我們將再次根據宏觀環境來看看我們能否實現這一目標。

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

Hi guys.

嗨，大家好。

Thanks for taking my questions as well.

也感謝您回答我的問題。

I know you gave some of the factors on the gross margin, but I'm just curious in the quarter, the 20.7% relative to the 21.4% outlook.

我知道您給了一些影響毛利率的因素，但我只是好奇本季的毛利率為 20.7%，而前景為 21.4%。

Just maybe if you could just kind of bucket those a little bit, help us understand what the delta was there.

也許如果你能把這些稍微整理一下，幫助我們了解那裡的三角洲是什麼。

And then along the same lines, what's the driver of that sequential increase as we move into the fourth quarter, please?

同樣，當我們進入第四季時，連續成長的驅動因素是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Both very good questions.

兩個問題都很好。

So on the quarter itself relative to guidance, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, a lot of it was just driven by the West Coast mix in the quarter.

因此，就季度本身而言，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，相對於指導，其中很大一部分只是由本季度西海岸的組合推動的。

Virtually all of the upside that we had on the top-line relative to the midpoint of our guidance came from our West Coast business.

事實上，相對於我們的指導中點而言，我們的營收成長幾乎全部來自我們的西岸業務。

And currently, that business is carrying margins lower than the company average.

目前，該業務的利潤率低於公司平均水平。

So that was a little bit of a drag on the percent margin that we had for the quarter in dollar terms.

因此，這對我們本季以美元計算的利潤率有一點拖累。

Obviously, it was nice to have it.

顯然，擁有它真是太好了。

The other two factors that I mentioned was pricing was a negative.

我提到的另外兩個因素是定價是負面的。

So we did see some price moves.

所以我們確實看到了一些價格變動。

But on the positive side, total incentives total homebuyer concessions in the quarter were actually a little bit favorable.

但從積極的一面來看，本季購屋者的整體激勵優惠實際上有點有利。

So those three factors were really the drivers, but the largest of the three as far as the guidance miss, was the West Coast mix.

因此，這三個因素確實是驅動因素，但就引導偏差而言，這三個因素中最大的是西海岸的組合。

When you look at it sequentially, we will have some additional West Coast deliveries and revenues in the fourth quarter, but the delta won't be as high as it was, especially on a year-over-year basis as it was in the third quarter.

When you look at it sequentially, we will have some additional West Coast deliveries and revenues in the fourth quarter, but the delta won't be as high as it was, especially on a year-over-year basis as it was in the third四分之一.

So there will be a little bit of drag there.

所以那裡會有一點阻力。

But on the upside, we are also looking at the West Coast margins improving between third quarter and fourth quarter.

但從好的方面來看，我們也看到西海岸的利潤率在第三季和第四季之間有所改善。

So there'll be a little less going into it.

因此，涉及的內容會少一些。

And as always, I mean, we guide margins based on a very detailed forecast.

我的意思是，一如既往，我們根據非常詳細的預測來指導利潤。

So we started actually with our backlog, which is actually house-by-house, it gets rolled up to community, gets rolled up to a division and gets consolidated.

因此，我們實際上從我們的積壓工作開始，這實際上是逐家進行的，它被匯總到社區，被匯總到一個部門並整合。

So the vast majority of our deliveries in the quarter are already on the books with known pricing and known costs.

因此，我們本季的絕大多數交付已經以已知的定價和已知成本記錄在案。

The swing factor often for us is just which homes get closed.

對我們來說，影響因素往往在於哪些房屋被關閉。

So what does the mix factor look like in the quarter.

那麼本季的混合因素是什麼樣的呢？

And also, we typically run about 20% of quarterly deliveries that are sold and closed in the same quarter.

此外，我們通常會處理約 20% 的季度交付，這些交付是在同一季度售出並完成的。

So those are obviously just estimates that we have to do at the beginning of the quarter.

因此，這些顯然只是我們必須在本季初進行的估計。

But that sequential improvement looks pretty solid to us at this point, and we'll see how the quarter progresses and see where we get our deliveries.

但目前對我們來說，這種連續的改善看起來相當可靠，我們將看看本季的進展以及我們的交付情況。

But we're pretty confident in the guidance numbers that we provided.

但我們對我們提供的指導數字非常有信心。

Okay.

好的。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And I can tell you that some of the more cautious feedback that we're getting from folks is that, well rates are coming down.

我可以告訴你，我們從人們那裡得到的一些更謹慎的回饋是，利率正在下降。

This is not a new story, but that existing home inventory is going to come back into the market.

這不是一個新故事，但現有房屋庫存將重新回到市場。

We are already seeing the builders put a lower than expected gross margins as they're battling that.

我們已經看到建築商在應對這一問題時設定的毛利率低於預期。

That doesn't seem to be the case.

事實似乎並非如此。

You guys are talking about existing home inventories to being pretty much in check going up in some markets and the expectation that you will be able to pair back on incentives as rates come down.

你們正在談論現有房屋庫存在某些市場上的上升幾乎受到抑制，並且隨著利率下降，你們將能夠重新獲得激勵措施。

Just -- I want to make sure I'm understanding your thoughts on that correctly and how you do sort of see that dynamic of existing home inventory coming back in certain markets.

只是 - 我想確保我正確理解您對此的想法，以及您如何看待某些市場現有房屋庫存回升的動態。

John, I think you shaped it the right way.

約翰，我認為你以正確的方式塑造了它。

I think if there is more resale inventory that will help the overall housing market.

我認為如果有更多的轉售庫存將有助於整個房地產市場。

There is a lot of people that are locked out of moving up because there's not enough product or -- they don't want to sell their current home but they need to move up.

有很多人因為沒有足夠的產品而無法升級，或者——他們不想賣掉現在的房子，但他們需要升級。

I think the whole thing opens up.

我想整件事情都展開了。

What we call housing food chain will all unlock it, if inventory would come up a little bit.

如果庫存稍微增加一點，我們所說的房屋食物鏈就會全部解鎖。

And as I shared in the prepared remarks, the days on the market is still very favorable.

正如我在準備好的演講中所分享的那樣，市場的日子仍然非常有利。

So while inventories ticking up, it is clearing pretty quickly in most of the markets.

因此，儘管庫存在增加，但大多數市場的清理速度都很快。

And you have to look at it submarket-by-submarket in every city.

你必須逐一查看每個城市的子市場。

And when you do, there is been a lot of headlines on pricing coming down on inventory up, but it's at the higher price point submarkets than where we operate.

當你這樣做時，會有很多關於庫存增加而價格下降的頭條新聞，但這是在比我們經營的地方更高的價格點子市場。

Down at the more affordable levels that we operate at, the inventory is pretty limited still.

在我們經營的更實惠的水平下，庫存仍然相當有限。

So we think we are in a good position to compete very favorably as resale opens up some.

因此，我們認為，隨著轉售的開放，我們處於有利的競爭地位。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Hi guys, [Andros] on for Mike.

大家好，[Andros] 代表麥克。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I just wanted to follow up maybe with the recent NAR settlement, I wanted to ask if there are any potential changes that you're making with brokers, if any, and kind of any net impacts from those?

我只是想跟進最近的 NAR 和解，我想問一下你們是否正在與經紀人進行任何潛在的改變（如果有的話），以及這些改變帶來的任何淨影響？

And maybe your views more generally on brokers?

也許您對經紀人的看法更普遍？

It is still very early in the process.

目前還處於早期階段。

And like everyone else, we are watching the movements and trying to come up with whatever our strategy would be.

和其他人一樣，我們正在觀察動向，並試圖制定我們的策略。

But Rob, why don't you share what we're seeing right now?

但是羅布，為什麼不分享我們現在所看到的呢？

Yes.

是的。

It is like Jeff mentioned, it's a process.

就像傑夫提到的，這是一個過程。

It's kind of in flux.

它有點不穩定。

I think it's a process that will continue to evolve over time.

我認為這是一個隨著時間的推移而不斷發展的過程。

But we are seeing that evolution speed up a little bit now that buyers are required to sign in agreement with the realtor that defines the terms of the compensation.

但我們看到，由於買家需要與確定補償條款的房地產經紀人簽署協議，因此演變速度有所加快。

And we've had some interesting situations in the field over the last couple of months where buyers -- some buyers had signed agreements and didn't really know what they had signed up for.

過去幾個月，我們在該領域遇到了一些有趣的情況，一些買家簽署了協議，但並不真正知道他們簽署了什麼。

And we've also had customers come into our sales office and tell us that they chose not to work with the realtor because they didn't want to be on the hook for covering that commission.

我們也有客戶來到我們的銷售辦公室，告訴我們他們選擇不與房地產經紀人合作，因為他們不想承擔佣金。

So now we are working directly with them and they're working with our team.

所以現在我們直接與他們合作，他們也與我們的團隊合作。

We value the realtors and the relationships that we have with them.

我們重視房地產經紀人以及我們與他們的關係。

And if they bring us business, we wouldn't otherwise beginning and they are procuring cause for the sale, if you will.

如果他們為我們帶來業務，我們就不會開始，如果你願意的話，他們正在為出售尋找理由。

We truly value that and want to continue cooperating with them and compensating them fairly for it.

我們非常重視這一點，並希望繼續與他們合作，並為此給予他們公平的補償。

But at the same time, it is a pretty significant cost addition to the home and affordability is can be tough, and we are focused on removing any extra cost that we can.

但同時，這對房屋來說是一項相當大的成本增加，而且負擔能力可能很困難，我們致力於盡可能消除任何額外成本。

And one change that we have in play is now that we require the buyer to show us that compensation agreement with their realtor.

我們正在進行的一項改變是，現在我們要求買家向我們展示與其房地產經紀人的補償協議。

And we typically pay up to 2%, but not more.

我們通常支付最多 2%，但不會更多。

Sometimes it is a flat fee if that agreement says that the buyer is paying 1%, then that's what we are going to pay.

有時，如果協議規定買方支付 1%，那麼這就是固定費用，那麼這就是我們要支付的費用。

So still in flux.

所以仍在不斷變化。

We'll adjust our approach and our strategy as we learn more about it and see how things are playing out.

隨著我們了解更多並了解事情的進展，我們將調整我們的方法和策略。

But our main focus is going to continue to be trying to reach that buyer, working to reach that buyer directly through our digital marketing programs, our website and other outreach and advertising and just offer a straightforward, simple process for purchasing a home.

但我們的主要重點將是繼續嘗試接觸買家，努力透過我們的數位行銷計劃、我們的網站以及其他外展和廣告直接接觸買家，並提供一個直接、簡單的購屋流程。

I would say, it's interesting that one statistic that our Q3 orders, we saw that realtor participation was down about 5 percentage points sequentially.

我想說，有趣的是，我們第三季的一項統計數據顯示，房地產經紀人的參與度連續下降了約 5 個百分點。

So not sure if that's a direct correlation to the NAR settlement or if that's just kind of movement around in the numbers and the new process, but something that we are going to continue watching closely.

因此，不確定這是否與 NAR 和解直接相關，或者這是否只是數位和新流程的變化，但我們將繼續密切關注。

Thanks.

謝謝。

That was very thorough and helpful.

這是非常徹底和有幫助的。

Maybe moving on to kind of your build cycle times having somewhat normalized recently.

也許您的建置週期時間最近已經有所標準化。

Do you think maybe there's an opportunity to bring those cycle times lower than your historical average over time?

您認為隨著時間的推移，也許有機會讓這些週期時間低於歷史平均值嗎？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，絕對是。

We've still got a little ways to go to get to the lower end of our historical average, about another 30 days.

要達到歷史平均的下限，我們還有很長的路要走，大約還需要 30 天。

But we've got a lot of divisions, many divisions today that are building lower than that.

但我們有很多部門，今天很多部門的建設都比這個低。

Some of them are in the 110 day build time range.

其中一些在 110 天的建造時間範圍內。

So other divisions were not quite as much available labor.

因此，其他部門的可用勞動力並不多。

It's a little slower.

速度有點慢。

But I think we've got programs in place to continue accelerating those build times.

但我認為我們已經制定了適當的計劃來繼續加快建造時間。

It just does so much for us, whether that's pulling in deliveries from a future quarter, all of our return ratio.

它對我們的作用非常大，無論是未來季度的交付量還是我們所有的回報率。

So definitely something we're focused on.

所以這絕對是我們關注的焦點。

I think it's an opportunity for us.

我認為這對我們來說是一個機會。

If we can just get kind of our outlier divisions that are building longer down to even our company average, I think we'll get much closer to that four months and I was -- nobody on our team likes to hear this, but at one point when I was in Vegas, we were building houses in about 90 days from sale to close.

如果我們能夠讓我們的異常部門的建設時間更長，甚至達到我們公司的平均水平，我想我們會更接近這四個月，我是——我們團隊中沒有人喜歡聽到這個，但在某有一天當我在維加斯時，我們建造房屋從銷售到成交大約需要 90 天。

That may be a little too high of a goal, but we are going to get what we can.

這個目標可能有點太高了，但我們會盡力而為。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Hi guys, good afternoon.

哈嘍，大家下午好。

Thanks for all the details so far.

感謝到目前為止的所有詳細資訊。

First, I guess, Jeff K, on the '25 outlook, and I'm going to be very careful not to ask you to parse it too finely.

首先，Jeff K，我想，關於 25 年的展望，我會非常小心，不要要求您過於精細地解析它。

Your message was clear.

你的訊息很清楚。

But one of the things that you mentioned that gives you the confidence in growth next year, you pointed to your backlog and kind of the homes under production.

但你提到的讓你對明年成長充滿信心的一件事是，你指出了你的積壓訂單和正在生產的房屋類型。

And I just want to make sure I'm thinking about this right because on a year-over-year basis, your backlog has been pretty consistently down roughly 15%.

我只是想確保我的想法是正確的，因為與去年同期相比，你們的積壓訂單持續下降約 15%。

I believe the homes under production number you gave was roughly flat year-over-year.

我相信您提供的在建房屋數量與去年同期大致持平。

So I'm just trying to figure out, like from a spec mix standpoint, you came into this year building more specs and that allowed you to grow closings even though your backlog was lower.

所以我只是想弄清楚，從規格組合的角度來看，您今年構建了更多規格，這使您能夠增加成交量，即使您的積壓訂單較低。

Should we expect an incremental increase in spec building ahead of next spring given your optimism there?

鑑於您對此的樂觀態度，我們是否應該預期明年春季之前規範建設會逐步增加？

Or are you just taking a forward view of what demand is going to be in the spring and given your improving cycle times are confident that you can get those homes built and delivered and hit that closing target?

或者，您只是對春季的需求有一個前瞻性的看法，並且考慮到您不斷改善的周期時間，您有信心能夠建造和交付這些房屋並達到最終目標嗎？

Yeah, you said it the right way.

是的，你說得對。

I should have actually combined that cycle time with the backlog in that comment because that's a pretty important factor for us, and the improving cycle time has been a big generator and a nice increment on our revenues.

實際上，我應該將該週期時間與該評論中的積壓工作結合起來，因為這對我們來說是一個非常重要的因素，並且週期時間的改善是一個巨大的發電機，並且對我們的收入有很大的增加。

But yes, it's our forward look of where we expect things to go based on all the starts plans and what we expect to see going into the spring.

但是，是的，這是我們根據所有啟動計劃以及我們期望在春季看到的情況對事情進展的前瞻性展望。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then second question, kind of on the balance sheet, asset efficiency side.

然後是第二個問題，關於資產負債表、資產效率面。

You guys have done a really great job with the capital allocation, buying back stock.

你們在資本配置、回購股票方面做得非常出色。

As I look at your cash balance today and the cash flow year-to-date, you're roughly breakeven on a free cash basis.

當我查看您今天的現金餘額和年初至今的現金流時，您在自由現金的基礎上大致實現了收支平衡。

Your option share of land has increased, but the owned supply is still kind of sitting three years to four years, which is similar to where it's been of late.

你的土地選擇權份額增加，但自有供應仍維持三到四年，這與最近的情況類似。

So how should we think about your free cash generation going forward?

那我們應該如何考慮您未來的自由現金產生呢？

Other builders have kind of set a target of roughly 100% conversion earnings to cash flow.

其他建築商設定了大約 100% 將收益轉化為現金流的目標。

I'm assuming fourth quarter will be a solid cash generation quarter for you guys, but it would seem like in order to get to that 100% number or something close, you would need to see that your supply of owned land move closer to maybe one or two years where some other builders are.

我假設第四季度對你們來說將是一個穩定的現金產生季度，但似乎為了達到 100% 或接近的數字，你需要看到你擁有的土地供應量接近也許其他建築商的工作時間是一兩年。

Right.

正確的。

We focus mostly on the asset efficiency from the point of view of inventory turn.

我們主要從庫存週轉的角度來關注資產效率。

And what we're doing with the communities that we have out there, we are relatively high pace company from an absorption point of view, typically one of the tops in the industry on turning our inventory once the communities are up and running.

從吸收的角度來看，我們正在對我們現有的社區所做的事情，我們是相對高速的公司，一旦社區啟動並運行，我們通常是行業中庫存週轉最好的公司之一。

So that's really the primary focus for us as far as asset efficiency goes.

因此，就資產效率而言，這確實是我們的主要關注點。

And that can generate a lot of cash.

這可以產生大量現金。

The reduction in build times has been a big cash generator for the business, and we don't think we are -- as Rob mentioned earlier, we think there is still a lot of room on that to generate some incremental cash on a go-forward basis.

建造時間的減少為企業帶來了巨大的現金來源，但我們認為並非如此——正如羅伯之前提到的，我們認為仍有很大的空間可以隨時產生一些增量現金——前向基礎。

And that's where we are focused.

這就是我們關注的重點。

And of course, if we can achieve some operating margin expansion that's just a bonus on top of it.

當然，如果我們能夠實現一定的營業利潤率擴張，那就是額外的獎勵。

So land monetization for us is very important.

所以土地貨幣化對我們來說非常重要。

Big cash driver, and we'll continue to allocate capital very carefully based on our forward outlook on cash flow and balance sheet.

巨大的現金驅動力，我們將繼續根據我們對現金流和資產負債表的前瞻性展望非常謹慎地分配資本。

The one nice thing for us is we can really focus on.

對我們來說，一件好事是我們可以真正專注於事情。

I would term it as more shareholder-friendly allocation to capital, particularly with our balance sheet in the condition as in today, which I don't think it's ever been better from a leverage point of view.

我將其稱為對股東更友善的資本配置，特別是在我們今天的資產負債表狀況下，我認為從槓桿的角度來看，這是最好的。

So that's a big favorable for us as well.

所以這對我們來說也是一個很大的利多。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

拉夫·賈德羅西奇，美國銀行。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

First, I just wanted to -- you mentioned that direct cost had come down a little bit.

首先，我只是想──你提到直接成本下降了一點。

You've seen some opportunity.

你已經看到了一些機會。

Can you talk about the outlook going forward on the direct cost side?

能談談直接成本方面的前景嗎？

And then also, what are you seeing on land inflation today?

另外，您今天對土地通膨有何看法？

Rob, that's right up your alley.

羅布，這正是你的拿手好戲。

Okay.

好的。

So yes, we've driven direct costs down sequentially.

所以，是的，我們已經連續降低了直接成本。

I still think on direct, some of it's going to be based on market conditions and how busy our suppliers and our trade partners are.

我仍然認為直接的，其中一些將基於市場狀況以及我們的供應商和貿易夥伴的繁忙程度。

But I think we've got opportunities to continue driving it down.

但我認為我們有機會繼續降低它。

It may not necessarily come from simple things like rebidding, but we've got initiatives going on throughout the company in an effort to get to better affordability for our buyers of driving costs out of those homes, whether it is the elevation, the look at the outside of the home, whether that's simplifying the options that we offer that we've been working on.

它可能不一定來自於重新招標等簡單的事情，但我們在整個公司範圍內都在採取舉措，努力讓我們的買家能夠更好地負擔得起這些房屋的成本，無論是海拔、外觀家庭的外部，是否簡化了我們一直在努力提供的選擇。

It is an ongoing process, and we are seeing a relief in cost from that.

這是一個持續的過程，我們看到成本降低。

And just value engineering the projects.

並且重視專案的設計。

We've got San Antonio, for example, as we are trying to get to a more affordable price point, we're introducing new models with they're a little less elevated and more simplified in terms of their box-on-box type construction, getting rid of offsets and overhangs and things like that.

例如，我們有聖安東尼奧，因為我們試圖達到更實惠的價格點，所以我們正在推出新型號，它們的高度稍低，並且在盒裝類型方面更加簡化施工，消除偏移和懸垂等類似的事情。

So real opportunity that we are continuing to drive there that I expect to see more cost decreases on the direct cost side coming.

我們正在繼續推動這一真正的機會，我預計直接成本方面的成本將會進一步下降。

And of course, we'll take everything the market will give us as well in terms of rebidding and just negotiating lower cost.

當然，我們也會利用市場給予我們的一切，包括重新招標和談判降低成本。

I'm sorry, what was the question on land?

抱歉，陸地上的問題是什麼？

Just what you're seeing in terms of land cost today, what level of inflation and how has it changed?

您現在所看到的土地成本、通貨膨脹水平以及它發生了怎樣的變化？

Well, there is an ongoing land grab in most of our markets.

嗯，我們的大多數市場都在持續搶佔土地。

So it certainly puts pressure on both the raw land side and the development cost.

因此，這無疑對原地方面和開發成本都造成了壓力。

I'd say that, that's definitely slowed down and stabilized some from what we saw back in '22 and '23.

我想說的是，與我們在 22 年和 23 年看到的情況相比，這肯定已經放緩並穩定了一些。

So on the -- that's on the land side.

所以在陸地一側。

And on the development cost, I would say they've generally stabilized, but now stabilized at a higher level.

至於開發成本，我想說它們已經整體穩定，但現在穩定在更高的水平。

So yes, between land and land development, we do see higher overall lot cost, not necessarily as a percentage of our revenue, but we are incorporating that into all of our underwriting.

所以，是的，在土地和土地開發之間，我們確實看到了更高的整體地塊成本，不一定占我們收入的百分比，但我們正在將其納入我們所有的承保中。

And we're only doing deals that make sense to us.

我們只做對我們有意義的交易。

So as the land costs go up or something else has got to move down, maybe that's direct like we talked about, but still just focused on making sure each deal that we do hits our underwriting hurdles, and we feel good about our portfolio and the process going forward.

因此，隨著土地成本上升或其他因素必須下降，也許這就像我們所說的那樣直接，但仍然只是專注於確保我們所做的每筆交易都達到承保障礙，並且我們對我們的投資組合和進程向前推進。

And then second question is just where is your spec versus BTO mix right now?

第二個問題是你的規格與 BTO 組合現在的情況如何？

And how do we think about the margin differential between the two segments?

我們如何看待這兩個細分市場之間的利潤差異？

So the -- in terms of sales, it's roughly 60-40 on what we've had, and we expect that probably to come down more in the historical range.

因此，就銷售額而言，大約是我們現有產品的 60-40 倍，我們預計這一數字可能會在歷史範圍內下降更多。

It is been more like 80-20.

更像是80-20。

And we do see a drop off and we get higher margins when we're selling a BTO home and somebody is personalizing that home for themselves, which is one of the reasons we like to keep that ratio closer to the 80-20.

當我們出售 BTO 房屋並且有人為自己個性化該房屋時，我們確實看到了下降，並且我們獲得了更高的利潤，這就是我們希望將該比率保持在接近 80-20 的原因之一。

That's our primary focus.

這是我們的首要關注點。

Our primary business model is selling personalized homes, and that's what we are going to continue doing.

我們的主要商業模式是銷售個人化房屋，這就是我們將繼續做的事情。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good afternoon and thank you for taking my questions.

你好，下午好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I want to follow up on Alan's question regarding your land-bank.

我想跟進艾倫關於你的土地儲備的問題。

Your option lot percentage has really jumped the last couple of quarters.

在過去的幾個季度中，您的期權份額百分比確實躍升了。

Is that a function of just timing?

這只是時間的函數嗎？

Or is -- has there been a different approach there?

或者是──有不同的方法嗎？

And do you expect that to stay near these higher levels or over the next several quarters kind of gravitate back towards your 25% option level that you've been at recently?

您是否預計該價格會保持在較高水平附近，或者在接下來的幾個季度內會回到您最近所處的 25% 期權水平？

Trevor, Rob touched on the fact that most of the markets we are in Land is very competitive.

特雷弗·羅布談到了這樣一個事實，即我們所在的蘭德大部分市場都競爭非常激烈。

And you'd love to buy every deal on a rolling option in some markets you can do it and some you can't.

您希望購買滾動期權的每筆交易，在某些市場上您可以這樣做，而在某些市場上您則不能。

We have been successful with a lot of our bulk purchases going to a phased takedown where you may buy half of it today and half of it 18-months out.

我們已經成功地將許多大宗採購分階段下架，您可以今天購買一半，18 個月後購買一半。

And as you look at our percentage movement, as we are investing more in our growth I would say it's all of the above.

當你看到我們的百分比變動時，隨著我們對成長的投資加大，我想說的是以上所有。

We are seeing more option deals.

我們看到更多的期權交易。

We're seeing more phased takedowns, we're also buying some deals both within it.

我們看到更多的分階段收購，我們也在其中購買了一些交易。

And I think over time, you'll see the option percentage go up a little more from where it is today.

我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到期權百分比比現在有所上升。

But our primary mission right now is to create a bigger growth platform and capture the business that we can and grow our share.

但我們現在的首要任務是創建一個更大的成長平台，抓住我們所能做的業務並擴大我們的份額。

Yeah, makes a lot of sense.

是的，很有道理。

And then a second question on geography.

然後是關於地理的第二個問題。

Clearly, Florida and Texas have gotten a lot of attention in the last few months from an order standpoint, it looks like the central was maybe a little bit softer for you guys sequentially, but the Southeast was improved relative to the overall company average, it only moved down modestly quarter-over-quarter.

顯然，從訂單的角度來看，佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州在過去幾個月中受到了很多關注，看起來中部地區對你們來說可能連續有點軟，但東南部相對於公司整體平均水平有所改善，它僅比上一季略有下降。

Can you talk about how Florida and Texas demand trended throughout the quarter and how that compares to your business overall?

您能否談談佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州整個季度的需求趨勢以及與您的整體業務相比如何？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Rob?

搶？

Yeah, it was a little -- we talked about the resale and inventory.

是的，有點——我們討論了轉售和庫存。

Just to give you an example, we've got -- it really is market-by-market.

舉個例子，我們確實是逐一市場的。

I look at a division like Jacksonville, where the resale inventory, it's about 5.5 months of supply now, which is approaching the longer-term historical average, and it's up more than two months year-over-year.

我看一下像傑克遜維爾這樣的部門，那裡的轉售庫存現在約為 5.5 個月的供應量，接近長期歷史平均水平，並且同比增長了兩個多月。

So there is more pressure on there from resales.

因此，轉售的壓力更大。

And I think that was a factor Orlando is similar, some of the Florida markets that we've got.

我認為奧蘭多有一個相似的因素，我們擁有佛羅裡達州的一些市場。

So as we looked at the moves that we needed to make to lift our sales pace, those were some of the areas that we did lower prices in.

因此，當我們考慮需要採取哪些措施來提高銷售速度時，我們在這些領域降低了價格。

And we've seen that those have been fairly effective and sales have bounced back in August.

我們已經看到這些措施相當有效，八月的銷售額已經反彈。

Texas, I would say, is similar, really different if you go from Austin to San Antonio as far as buyer profile.

我想說，德克薩斯州是相似的，如果你從奧斯汀到聖安東尼奧，就買家概況而言，確實有所不同。

And price point.

和價格點。

But both of those markets, too, we've seen resale inventory start to climb back up.

但我們也看到這兩個市場的轉售庫存開始回升。

It is become a bigger competitor, and we've taken a similar approach there.

它已成為一個更大的競爭對手，我們也採取了類似的方法。

We've taken steps to find the market.

我們已採取措施尋找市場。

Some of that included lowering prices in certain communities.

其中包括降低某些社區的價格。

And then again, saw it come back, and we're pleased with where things headed in August, with sales improving each week of the month and continuing on into September.

然後，我們再次看到它的回歸，我們對 8 月的情況感到滿意，該月的每週銷量都在改善，並持續到 9 月。

As we look at early September, we are also seeing really strong activity on our leads and traffic.

從 9 月初的情況來看，我們也發現我們的銷售線索和流量活動非常強勁。

So it gives us good optimism here as we look through the fourth quarter.

因此，當我們展望第四季時，這給了我們良好的樂觀情緒。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

傑德·拉赫馬尼，KBW。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Absorption pace dipped to 4.1%.

吸收率下降至 4.1%。

Could you just comment on what your target is and what you're expecting, say, for next year?

您能否簡單評論一下您的目標是什麼以及您對明年的期望？

Sure.

當然。

I could have answered Stephen's question earlier along this line.

我本來可以早點回答史蒂芬的問題。

So thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

If you look back at '22 when the markets were really strong in the early part of the year, we were at 6%, 6.5% a month in the springtime.

如果你回顧 22 年，當時市場在年初非常強勁，我們春季的每月成長率為 6%、6.5%。

And that's -- it's an illustration that we're going to optimize the asset, take the price, balance price and pace.

這說明我們將優化資產、調整價格、平衡價格和節奏。

And what we have found over time is you have to hold at about 4% a month minimum.

隨著時間的推移，我們發現你必須每月至少持有 4% 左右的利率。

So you do what you -- take the steps you have to get to 4%.

所以你要做你所要做的事——採取你必須採取的措施來達到 4%。

And if it's a large lot position in a sub-market that's easily replenishable, you'll let it run at 6% or even 7% or 8% like we've done in some of our communities.

如果它是一個子市場中的大量部位，很容易補充，你會讓它以 6% 甚至 7% 或 8% 的速度運行，就像我們在一些社區所做的那樣。

So as we look at this year, we've been navigating some real volatility in market demand, and we're going to run right around 4% a month at the end of the day based on where we're at -- and where we're headed.

因此，當我們回顧今年時，我們一直在應對市場需求的一些實際波動，並且根據我們所處的位置和位置，最終我們每月的成長率將約為 4%我們出發了。

But that's certainly not a ceiling, that's a floor.

但這肯定不是天花板，而是地板。

So I think if the markets were to improve, you'd see us lift above the 4%.

所以我認為如果市場改善，你會看到我們的成長率超過 4%。

I'm sorry, the stated range that we've given is we'll average 4% to 6%, every community has got its own story though.

抱歉，我們給的規定範圍是平均 4% 到 6%，但每個社區都有自己的故事。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And honing in on California, how would you characterize the demand trends you saw in the quarter since that's your largest market?

以加州為例，您如何描述您在本季看到的需求趨勢，因為那是您最大的市場？

Rob, do you want to handle that?

羅布，你想解決這個問題嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

It's -- California has been strong for us.

加州對我們來說一直很強大。

Southern California has done really well.

南加州做得非常好。

Inland Empire has been one of our strongest divisions in terms of sales.

就銷售而言，內陸帝國一直是我們最強大的部門之一。

And they kept on chucking in Q3 overall, pleased with our demand in California and continues to do very well.

他們在第三季度總體上繼續保持成長，對我們在加州的需求感到滿意，並繼續表現出色。

I don't have a lot to add to that.

我沒有太多要補充的。

It's been a good story for us.

這對我們來說是一個好故事。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Thank you and thank you for taking the questions.

謝謝您並感謝您提出問題。

My first question is around buyer sentiment.

我的第一個問題是關於買家情緒的。

The election, housing has gotten a lot more attention from both of these candidates?

這次選舉，住房問題受到了兩位候選人更多的關注？

Do you think that, that's having an effect on people's decision-making process and their willingness to perhaps step into the market today?

您認為這會影響人們的決策過程以及他們今天進入市場的意願嗎？

Well, it's pleasing, Susan to hear both sides talking about doing things to help housing.

蘇珊，很高興聽到雙方談論如何幫助解決住房問題。

That's encouraging for us.

這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。

Our industry continues to under-build.

我們的行業仍在建設中。

We have real affordability issues that we're navigating as an industry and anything that they can do would be a help.

我們作為一個行業正在解決真正的負擔能力問題，他們能做的任何事情都會有所幫助。

So that would be a good thing.

所以這將是一件好事。

And whatever they do, it will still take some time to catch up if we ever catch up, frankly, because there are some structural things that we're dealing with.

坦白說，無論他們做什麼，如果我們能趕上的話，仍然需要一些時間才能趕上，因為我們正在處理一些結構性問題。

The consumer has a lot of triggers when they make a home buying decision.

消費者在做出購屋決定時有很多觸發因素。

Most of them are life changing, whether it's getting married, having a baby, relocating, promotion, demotion all those things, retire.

他們中的大多數人都在改變生活，無論是結婚、生子、搬家、升職、降職、退休等等。

They're all those things drive the need to change your home ownership.

所有這些因素都促使您改變房屋所有權。

And all those have been going on all year.

所有這些都持續了一整年。

So I think there was a pause because interest rates stuck, everybody thought they were at a peak and sooner or later, the Fed would move and they now have.

因此，我認為之所以出現暫停，是因為利率停滯不前，每個人都認為利率已達到峰值，而聯準會遲早會採取行動，而他們現在已經採取了行動。

And as interest rates slid, we saw almost an instant reaction out of the consumer where in the month of August, leads went up, traffic went up, visits to the community.

隨著利率下降，我們看到消費者幾乎立即做出反應，在八月份，潛在客戶增加，流量增加，社區訪問量增加。

Everything was very favorable.

一切都非常有利。

And I think that's just the human nature of things, not necessarily somebody's platform for what they're going to do for housing.

我認為這只是事物的人性，不一定是某人為住房所做的事情的平台。

But I think it is something -- if either side does something, I think it will be helpful, but I don't think that's the principal driver right now with the decisions being made.

但我認為這很重要——如果任何一方採取行動，我認為這都會有所幫助，但我不認為這是目前做出決定的主要驅動力。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful color.

這是有用的顏色。

And then just one last question on the design studios.

最後一個問題是關於設計工作室的。

As we move through the quarter and you saw the movements on the demand side and thinking about the outlook for the fourth quarter and even into next year.

當我們進入本季時，您會看到需求方面的變化，並思考第四季甚至明年的前景。

Any changes in the options and things that people are picking there and the amount that they're spending in the design studios?

人們在那裡選擇的選項和東西以及他們在設計工作室花費的金額有什麼變化嗎？

It's been pretty static.

它一直都非常靜態。

But we keep sharing that the buyers are spending what they're spending and the percentage on the price really hasn't moved in a couple of years.

但我們不斷表示，買家正在花他們所花的錢，而且價格的百分比在幾年內確實沒有變化。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the question-and-answer session, and this also concludes today's teleconference.

女士們、先生們，問答環節到此結束，今天的電話會議也到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。