KB Home (KBH) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

午安.

My name is John and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫約翰，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

I would like to welcome everyone to the KB Home 2024 first quarter earnings conference call.

歡迎大家參加 KB Home 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Today's conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay at the company's website, kbhome.com through April 19, 2024.

（操作員說明）今天的電話會議正在錄製中，並將在 2024 年 4 月 19 日之前在公司網站 kbhome.com 上重播。

And now I would like to turn the call over to Jill Peters, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係高級副總裁吉爾彼得斯 (Jill Peters)。

Thank you, Jill, you may begin.

謝謝你，吉爾，你可以開始了。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to review our results for the first quarter of fiscal 2024.

大家下午好，感謝您今天與我們一起回顧 2024 財年第一季的業績。

On the call are Jeff Mezger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Rob McGibney, President and Chief Operating Officer; Jeff Kaminski, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Bill Hollinger, Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and Thad Johnson, Senior Vice President and Treasurer.

董事長兼執行長 Jeff Mezger 出席了電話會議；麥吉布尼 (Rob McGibney)，總裁兼營運長；傑夫‧卡明斯基，執行副總裁兼財務長； Bill Hollinger，資深副總裁兼首席會計官；和資深副總裁兼財務主管 Thad Johnson。

During this call, items will be discussed that are considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在本次電話會議中，將討論 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內被視為前瞻性陳述的項目。

These statements are not guarantees of future results, and the company does not undertake any obligation to update them.

這些陳述不是對未來結果的保證，本公司不承擔任何更新義務。

Due to various factors, including those detailed in today's press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

由於多種因素，包括今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細說明的因素。

Actual results could be materially different from those stated or implied in the forward-looking statements.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

In addition, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measure of adjusted housing gross profit margin, which excludes inventory-related charges and any other non-GAAP measures referenced during today's discussion to its most directly comparable GAAP measure can be found in today's press release and or on the Investor Relations page of our website at Kbhome.com.

此外，調整後房屋毛利率的非公認會計準則衡量標準（不包括庫存相關費用和今天討論中引用的任何其他非公認會計準則衡量標準）與其最直接可比的公認會計準則衡量標準的調節可以在今天的新聞稿中找到，或造訪我們網站 Kbhome.com 的投資者關係頁面。

And with that, here's Jeff Mezger.

以下請聽聽傑夫‧梅茲格的報道。

Thank you, Jill and good afternoon everyone.

謝謝吉爾，大家下午好。

We delivered solid performance in the first quarter highlighted by our strong net orders as well as financial results that we were either at or above the high end of our guided ranges.

我們在第一季取得了穩健的業績，這得益於我們強勁的淨訂單以及達到或高於指導範圍高端的財務業績。

The spring selling season is off to a very good start, which together with our considerable backlog, better build times and planned new community openings gives us confidence that we are well positioned to achieve our objectives this year as to the details of our results, we produced total revenues of $1.5 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.76.

春季銷售季節有了一個非常好的開始，再加上我們大量的積壓、更好的建設時間和計劃中的新社區開放，讓我們相信我們有能力實現今年的目標，就我們的結果細節而言，我們總收入為 15 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 1.76 美元。

Our margins remained stable at 21.5% and growth and just under 11% in operating income.

我們的利潤率穩定在 21.5%，營業收入成長略低於 11%。

This performance, along with the cumulative benefit of sustained quarterly share repurchases, including an additional $50 million during the first quarter, drove our book value per share, up 14% year-over-year.

這一業績，加上持續季度股票回購的累積效益（包括第一季額外回購 5,000 萬美元），推動我們的每股帳面價值年增 14%。

Market conditions have improved since the end of our last fiscal year.

自上一財年結束以來，市場狀況有所改善。

As we discussed on our earnings call in January, we had begun to see demand move higher in December, which accelerated as the quarter progressed, although mortgage interest rates increased modestly in late February from their lowest levels during the quarter.

正如我們在1 月份的財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們開始看到12 月份的需求上升，並且隨著本季度的進展而加速，儘管抵押貸款利率在2 月底從本季度的最低水平小幅上升。

The strong desire for home ownership prevail, the combination of low housing inventory levels, solid employment and favorable demographics supports the new home market today.

人們對擁有住房的強烈渴望盛行，低住房庫存水準、穩定的就業和有利的人口結構共同支撐著當今的新房市場。

And we expect will continue to be the primary factors that sustain itself longer term.

我們預計這將繼續成為長期維持的主要因素。

So momentum in our net orders resulted in sequential gains of 46% in January, followed by 53% in February.

因此，我們的淨訂單動能導致 1 月環比成長 46%，2 月環比成長 53%。

We believe these results speak to the underlying demand for home ownership and a more stable housing market.

我們相信這些結果說明了對房屋所有權和更穩定的房屋市場的潛在需求。

Another sign of this stability is our cancellation rate, which fell significantly both sequentially and year-over-year.

這種穩定性的另一個跡像是我們的取消率，無論是環比還是同比都顯著下降。

In total, we generated 3,323 net orders in the first quarter, representing 55% year-over-year growth.

第一季我們總共產生了 3,323 筆淨訂單，年增 55%。

This result was achieved while we held mortgage consent concession study and implemented a modest level of price increases in most of our communities.

這一結果是在我們進行抵押貸款同意優惠研究並在大多數社區實施適度的價格上漲時取得的。

We have continued to experience strong sales since the start of our second quarter and believe we are well positioned to respond to this buyer demand given our products and price points as well as planned new community openings in the first half of this year.

自第二季初以來，我們繼續經歷強勁的銷售，並相信，鑑於我們的產品和價格點以及計劃在今年上半年開設的新社區，我們有能力滿足買家的需求。

On a per-community basis, our absorption pace accelerated as the quarter progressed averaging 4.6 monthly net orders for the full quarter.

從每個社區的角度來看，我們的吸收速度隨著季度的進展而加快，整個季度平均每月淨訂單量為 4.6 個。

Our strategic goals continue to be optimizing each asset on a community by community basis, which generally results in an annualized average absorption pace of about five net orders per community per month and generating high inventory turns.

我們的策略目標繼續是逐一社區地優化每項資產，這通常會導致每個社區每月約五個淨訂單的年化平均吸收速度，並產生高庫存週轉率。

In last year's second quarter, we produced very strong order results driving an average of 5.2 net orders per community per month.

去年第二季度，我們取得了非常強勁的訂單業績，每個社區平均每月有 5.2 個淨訂單。

This pace representing an 86% sequential increase and creates a tougher year-over-year comparable for this year.

這一速度代​​表了 86% 的環比增長，並為今年創造了更艱難的同比可比性。

Our expectation is to slightly exceed last year's monthly community order pace for our second quarter.

我們的預期是略高於去年第二季的每月社區訂單速度。

In light of more favorable market conditions we continue to align our starts with sales and plan to ramp up our starts, given stronger demand and to position our business for the second half of 2024.

鑑於市場條件更加有利，我們將繼續根據銷售情況調整開工率，並計劃在需求強勁的情況下提高開工率，並為 2024 年下半年的業務做好定位。

We believe our backlog homes in production and starts pace are in balance to support our projected $6.7 billion in revenues this year.

我們相信，我們的積壓房屋生產和開工進度保持平衡，可以支持我們今年預計的 67 億美元收入。

With that, I'll pause for a moment and ask Rob to provide an operational update.

說到這裡，我將暫停片刻並請 Rob 提供操作更新。

Rob?

搶？

Thank you, Jeff.

謝謝你，傑夫。

I will begin by adding to just comments on our order results to provide some additional color.

我將首先添加對我們的訂單結果的評論，以提供一些額外的顏色。

During the quarter, we pursued a higher pace to capture demand and build our backlog, also raising prices in over one half of our communities.

在本季度，我們加快了捕捉需求和積壓訂單的步伐，同時提高了一半以上社區的價格。

In another roughly 40% of our communities, we held prices steady.

在另外約 40% 的社區，我們保持價格穩定。

At 4.6 net orders per community our monthly absorption pace was above our historical first quarter average.

每個社區的淨訂單量為 4.6 個，我們的月度吸收速度高於第一季的歷史平均值。

As Jeff mentioned, our cancellation rate improved to 14% of our gross orders and 10% of our backlog at the start of the quarter.

正如 Jeff 所提到的，本季初我們的取消率提高至總訂單的 14% 和積壓訂單的 10%。

This was the lowest levels we've experienced in more than a year, reflecting buyers who have adjusted to the higher rates as compared to a year ago and were motivated to close.

這是我們一年多來經歷的最低水平，反映出買家已經適應了比一年前更高的價格，並有動力成交。

Mortgage concessions were relatively flat as compared to our 2023 fourth quarter with approximately 60% of our orders having some form of mortgage concession associated with them, including rate locks.

與 2023 年第四季相比，抵押貸款優惠相對持平，大約 60% 的訂單具有某種形式的抵押貸款優惠，包括利率鎖定。

Assuming market conditions and demand remain strong, we expect to be in a position to lower these types of incentives as the spring selling season progresses.

假設市場狀況和需求保持強勁，我們預計隨著春季銷售季節的進展，我們將能夠降低此類激勵措施。

We ended the quarter with almost 7,000 homes in production given our first quarter net order results and the elevated level of demand in the market.

鑑於我們第一季的淨訂單結果和市場需求水準的上升，本季末我們已生產了近 7,000 套住宅。

We expect to accelerate our starts and grow our production levels over the next six months.

我們預計在未來六個月內加快啟動並提高生產水準。

Operationally, our divisions are maintaining the progress they achieved last year in reducing build times.

在營運方面，我們的部門保持了去年在縮短建造時間方面的進展。

Our construction cycle is over 30% shorter than the prior year quarter, with a daily focus on additional efficiency enhancements to further reduce construction times to even flow production incorporated into our business model and leveraging relationships with our trade partners to increase speed, which helps improve cash flow for both sides, we believe we can return over time to our historical build times that between four and five months.

我們的施工週期比去年同期縮短了30% 以上，每天重點關注額外效率的提高，以進一步縮短施工時間，將流生產納入我們的業務模式，並利用與貿易夥伴的關係來提高速度，這有助於於改善雙方的現金流，我們相信隨著時間的推移，我們可以恢復到四到五個月之間的歷史建設時間。

This will improve our inventory turns and increase the population of homes available for delivery as well as further enhance of our Built to Order sales approach as personalized homes with quicker delivery dates are even more compelling to homebuyers.

這將改善我們的庫存週轉率，增加可供交付的房屋數量，並進一步增強我們的按單生產銷售方式，因為交付日期更快的個性化房屋對購房者來說更具吸引力。

As to direct costs on started homes, they held steady in the first quarter on both the sequential and year-over-year basis.

至於新開工房屋的直接成本，第一季環比和年比均保持穩定。

We continue to pursue value engineering simplification opportunities to drive cost down, which have been effective over the past year and helping to offset overall inflation.

我們繼續尋求價值工程簡化機會來降低成本，這些機會在過去一年中一直有效，有助於抵消整體通膨。

Before I wrap up, I'll review the credit metrics of our buyers, finance their mortgages through our joint venture, KBHS Home Loans.

在結束之前，我將審查買家的信用指標，透過我們的合資企業 KBHS Home Loans 為他們提供抵押貸款。

We had a solid increase in our capture rate with 85% of the mortgages funded during the quarter, having been financed through our joint venture.

我們的捕獲率穩步提高，本季 85% 的抵押貸款都是透過我們的合資企業融資的。

As compared to 79% in the prior year quarter.

與去年同期的 79% 相比。

Higher capture rates help us manage our backlog more effectively and provide more visibility and closings.

更高的捕獲率有助於我們更有效地管理積壓訂單，並提供更多的可見度和結案率。

In addition, we see higher customer satisfaction levels from buyers that use KBHS versus other lenders.

此外，我們發現使用 KBHS 的買家比其他貸款人的客戶滿意度更高。

The average cash down payment was 16%, consistent with last year, equating to roughly $77,000.

平均現金首付為 16%，與去年一致，相當於約 77,000 美元。

The household income of our KBHS customers was about $126,000, and they had an average FICO score of 743, a number that has steadily climbed over the past few years.

我們的KBHS客戶的家庭收入約為126,000美元，他們的平均FICO分數為743，這個數字在過去幾年中穩步攀升。

Even with one half of our customers purchasing their first home, we are attracting buyers that can qualify at elevated mortgage rates while making a significant down payment.

即使我們有一半的客戶購買了他們的第一套房子，我們仍然吸引了那些有資格獲得較高抵押貸款利率並同時支付大筆首付的買家。

As we look ahead to the rest of 2024, our divisions are focused on maintaining our high customer satisfaction levels, improving build times and value engineering our products to lower direct costs.

展望 2024 年剩餘時間，我們各部門的重點是保持較高的客戶滿意度、縮短建置時間並對我們的產品進行價值設計，以降低直接成本。

In addition, our objectives are set on driving net orders, acquiring more lots and opening communities on time, all of which will contribute to the future growth of the company.

此外，我們的目標是推動淨訂單、收購更多地塊並按時開設社區，所有這些都將有助於公司未來的成長。

We recently completed several leadership promotions and created a new Executive Vice President of home building position, to which Brian Kunec has been elevated.

我們最近完成了多項領導層晉升，並設立了一個新的住宅建築執行副總裁職位，布萊恩·庫內克 (Brian Kunec) 已晉升為該職位。

Many of you are familiar with Brian from his earlier role of successfully leading and growing our Las Vegas business.

你們中的許多人都熟悉布萊恩，因為他早期曾成功領導和發展我們的拉斯維加斯業務。

Most recently, Brian was one of our regional presidents responsible for our divisions in Idaho, Nevada, Northern California and Washington.

最近，布萊恩是我們的地區總裁之一，負責愛達荷州、內華達州、北加州和華盛頓的部門。

In addition to Brian, we also promoted two division presidents to the role of regional general manager and increased the geographic scope of one of our existing regional presidents.

除了布萊恩之外，我們還提拔了兩位部門總裁擔任區域總經理，並擴大了一位現有區域總裁的地域範圍。

We believe these organizational changes will help us in driving growth as well as operational performance.

我們相信這些組織變革將幫助我們推動成長和營運績效。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Jeff.

然後，我會將電話轉回給傑夫。

Thanks, Rob.

謝謝，羅布。

We invested close to $590 million to acquire and develop land during the quarter, a 60% increase year-over-year.

本季我們投資近 5.9 億美元用於收購和開發土地，年增 60%。

And the highest quarterly level since early 2022.

也是自 2022 年初以來的最高季度水準。

We have the capital available to accelerate our investment spend in 2024 and intend to do so while adhering to our underwriting criteria, product strategy and price points, as we are committed to growth beyond this year.

我們有足夠的資金來加速 2024 年的投資支出，並打算在遵守我們的承保標準、產品策略和價格點的同時實現這一目標，因為我們致力於今年之後的成長。

We had roughly 55,500 lots owned or controlled at quarter end, of which about 40,100 were owned.

截至季末，我們擁有或控制約 55,500 塊土地，其中約 40,100 塊為自有土地。

Over 17,000 of these lots are finished.

其中 17,000 多件已完成。

And as Rob referenced, we have about 7,000 homes in production.

正如 Rob 所提到的，我們正在生產大約 7,000 套房屋。

Approximately 60% of our owned lots were tied up in 2020 or prior, which provides us with a solid runway of lots at a favorable cost basis.

我們自有土地中約 60% 是在 2020 年或之前被佔用的，這為我們以有利的成本基礎提供了堅實的土地跑道。

We are focused on capital efficiency, developing lots wherever possible in smaller phases and balancing development with our starts pace to manage our inventory of finished lots.

我們專注於資本效率，盡可能以較小的階段開發批次，並平衡開發與我們的啟動速度，以管理成品批次的庫存。

We currently own or control, although less than we need to achieve our delivery growth targets for 2025.

我們目前擁有或控制，儘管少於我們實現 2025 年交付成長目標所需的數量。

And as we have stated in the past, our divisions have roadmaps in place with time lines to achieve at least a top five position for each of our served markets.

正如我們過去所說，我們的部門制定了路線圖和時間表，以在我們所服務的每個市場中至少實現前五名的位置。

Our balance sheet is healthy and our cash generating capabilities are strong.

我們的資產負債表健康，現金產生能力強大。

We intend to allocate our capital toward reinvestment and growth.

我們打算將資本用於再投資和成長。

And returning cash to shareholders in 2024, primarily through share repurchases.

並於 2024 年主要透過股票回購向股東返還現金。

This is a continuation of the capital allocation plan that we executed in fiscal 2023, during which we bought back $411 million of our common stock at an average price of about $44.50, substantially accretive to both our book value and diluted earnings per share.

這是我們在 2023 財年執行的資本分配計畫的延續，在此期間，我們以約 44.50 美元的平均價格回購了 4.11 億美元的普通股，大幅增加了我們的帳面價值和稀釋每股盈餘。

Over the balance of the year, we intend to utilize at a minimum the roughly $114 million that remains in our current repurchase authorization, and we will be requesting an additional authorization from our board.

在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們打算至少利用目前回購授權中剩餘的約 1.14 億美元，並且我們將向董事會請求額外授權。

In closing, I want to thank the entire KB Home team for solid execution in our first quarter and their dedication to our home buyers.

最後，我要感謝整個 KB Home 團隊在第一季的紮實執行以及他們對購屋者的奉獻。

Market conditions have improved, and we are seeing dynamics returning to a more normalized state.

市場狀況有所改善，我們看到動態恢復到更正常化的狀態。

Supply chain and trade labor availability has stabilized and while cost pressures are still present, they have eased.

供應鏈和貿易勞動力供應已經穩定，儘管成本壓力仍然存在，但已經有所緩解。

Mortgage interest rates have also steady, and we do not see any evidence of rates rising this year.

抵押貸款利率也保持穩定，我們沒有看到今年利率上升的任何跡象。

Buyers have largely adjusted to the rate environment, and we are encouraged by the demand we are seeing at the onset of the spring selling season.

買家已在很大程度上適應了利率環境，春季銷售季節開始時的需求令我們感到鼓舞。

Our backlog increased sequentially and as healthy as reflected in the lower cancellation rate we experienced in the first quarter.

我們的積壓訂單連續增加，並且與第一季較低的取消率反映出來的一樣健康。

We expect to compress our build times further, which will contribute to higher inventory turns unlock cash and enhance our bill to order approach.

我們希望進一步壓縮我們的建造時間，這將有助於提高庫存週轉率，釋放現金並增強我們按訂單計費的方法。

These dynamics are all favorable for our company, and we look forward to demonstrating the potential of our business as the year unfolds.

這些動態都對我們公司有利，我們期待隨著時間的推移展示我們業務的潛力。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeff for the financial review.

這樣，我現在將把電話轉給傑夫進行財務審查。

Jeff?

傑夫？

Thank you, Jeff and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝傑夫，大家下午好。

I will now cover highlights of our 2024 first quarter financial performance as well as provide our second quarter and full year outlooks.

我現在將介紹我們 2024 年第一季財務業績的亮點，並提供我們第二季和全年的展望。

We are pleased with our execution during the first quarter with home deliveries up 9% over the prior year in line with our expectations and supported by our improving construction cycle times and backlogs of sold homes.

我們對第一季的執行情況感到滿意，房屋交付量比上一年增長了 9%，符合我們的預期，並得到了施工週期時間和已售房屋積壓的改善的支持。

Our healthy operating margin of nearly 11% drove robust cash flow that enabled us to invest almost $600 million in land and returned over $65 million to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends and end the period with strong liquidity of $1.75 billion.

我們近11% 的健康營業利潤率推動了強勁的現金流，使我們能夠投資近6 億美元的土地，並透過股票回購和股息向股東返還超過6,500 萬美元，並以17.5 億美元的強勁流動性結束這段時期。

In the first quarter, our housing revenues of $1.46 billion were up 6% year-over-year, driven by the 9% increase in the number of homes delivered, partially offset by a decline in the overall average selling price of those homes.

第一季度，我們的住房收入為 14.6 億美元，年增 6%，這是由於交付的房屋數量增加了 9%，但部分被這些房屋的整體平均售價的下降所抵消。

The number of homes delivered in the first quarter reflected a backlog conversion rate of 55%, a significant improvement from 36% for the year earlier quarter, demonstrating both the impact of our improved build times as well as a lower cancellation rate in the current year period.

第一季交付的房屋數量反映了 55% 的積壓轉換率，比去年同期的 36% 顯著改善，這不僅體現了我們縮短建造時間的影響，也體現了今年較低的取消率時期。

Housing revenues were up in three of our four regions ranging from 3% in the West Coast to 35% in the Southwest offsetting a 19% decline in the central region.

我們四個地區中的三個地區的住房收入有所增長，從西海岸的 3% 到西南部的 35%，抵消了中部地區 19% 的下降。

We expect stable housing market conditions and favorable supply chain trends to support our forecasted results for the remainder of 2024.

我們預計穩定的房地產市場狀況和有利的供應鏈趨勢將支持我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的預測結果。

For the second quarter, we anticipate generating housing revenues in a range of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion.

我們預計第二季的住房收入將在 16 億至 17 億美元之間。

For the full year, we expect to generate housing revenues in the range of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion.

我們預計全年住房收入將在 65 億至 69 億美元之間。

We believe we are well positioned to achieve this top line performance, supported by our backlog of sold homes projected net orders per community anticipated continued improvement in construction cycle times and expected growth in community count.

我們相信，在我們已售出房屋的積壓、每個社區的淨訂單、施工週期時間的持續改善和社區數量的預期增長的支持下，我們有能力實現這一頂線業績。

In the first quarter, our overall average selling price of homes delivered decreased 3% year-over-year to approximately $480,000, mainly due to mix shifts.

第一季度，我們交付的房屋總體平均售價年減 3% 至約 48 萬美元，主要是由於混合變化。

For the 2024 second quarter, we are projecting an overall average selling price of approximately $483,000, up slightly, both sequentially and compared to the prior year period.

對於 2024 年第二季度，我們預計整體平均售價約為 483,000 美元，比上一季和去年同期均略有上升。

We still expect our overall average selling price for the full year we'll be in the range of $480,000 to $490,000.

我們仍然預計全年的總體平均售價將在 48 萬美元至 49 萬美元之間。

Homebuilding operating income for the first quarter increased slightly to $157.7 million compared to $156.5 million for the year earlier quarter.

第一季住宅建築營業收入小幅成長至 1.577 億美元，去年同期為 1.565 億美元。

The current quarter included abandonment charges of $1.3 million versus $5.3 million a year ago.

本季的廢棄費用為 130 萬美元，而去年同期為 530 萬美元。

Our homebuilding operating income margin decreased to 10.8% compared to 11.4% for the 2023 first quarter, mainly due to a higher SG&A expense expense ratio in the current year quarter.

我們的住宅建築營業利潤率下降至 10.8%，而 2023 年第一季為 11.4%，這主要是由於本季 SG&A 費用比率較高。

Excluding inventory-related charges, our operating margin of 10.9% decreased 80 basis points year-over-year.

不包括庫存相關費用，我們的營業利益率為 10.9%，較去年同期下降 80 個基點。

We anticipate our 2024 second quarter homebuilding operating income margin will be in the range of 10.1% to 10.5% and the full year metric to be approximately 10.9% to 11.3%.

我們預計 2024 年第二季住宅建築營業利潤率將在 10.1% 至 10.5% 之間，全年指標約為 10.9% 至 11.3%。

Our 2024 first quarter housing gross profit margin of 21.5% was even with the year earlier quarter.

我們的 2024 年第一季房屋毛利率為 21.5%，與去年同期持平。

Excluding inventory related charges in both periods, our gross margin decreased by 20 basis points year-over-year to 21.6%.

剔除這兩個期間的庫存相關費用，我們的毛利率年減 20 個基點至 21.6%。

We are forecasting a 2024 second quarter housing gross profit margin in a range of 20.5% to 21%, reflecting home buyer concessions offered for homes sold in the second half of last year.

我們預計 2024 年第二季房屋毛利率將在 20.5% 至 21% 之間，反映了購屋者為去年下半年出售的房屋提供的優惠。

Amid the challenging conditions at that time that are expected to deliver in the quarter.

在當時充滿挑戰的條件下，預計將在本季交付。

We project improved quarterly margins in the second half of 2024 supported by the margin profile in our backlog, improved leverage on fixed costs due to higher expected deliveries and anticipated lower rate buydown incentives.

我們預計 2024 年下半年的季度利潤率將有所改善，這得益於我們積壓的利潤狀況、由於預期交付量增加和預期較低的回購激勵措施而提高的固定成本槓桿率。

We expect our full-year gross margin will be in the range of 21% to 21.4%, assuming stable housing market conditions.

假設房地產市場狀況穩定，我們預計全年毛利率將在 21% 至 21.4% 之間。

Our selling, general and administrative expense ratio of 10.8% for the first quarter was up from 10.1% for the year earlier quarter, mainly reflecting higher costs, including marketing, advertising and other expenses associated with the planned increase in our community count during the year as we position our operations for growth.

第一季我們的銷售、一般和管理費用率為 10.8%，高於去年同期的 10.1%，主要反映成本增加，包括營銷、廣告和與年內計劃增加社區數量相關的其他費用當我們定位我們的業務以實現成長時。

We are also investing in personnel and other resources in alignment with the expected larger scale of our business.

我們也根據預期的更大業務規模投資於人員和其他資源。

We are forecasting our 2024 second quarter SG&A ratio to be approximately 10.5% and expect our full year 2024 ratio will be approximately 10.2%.

我們預計 2024 年第二季的 SG&A 比率約為 10.5%，預計 2024 年全年的比率約為 10.2%。

Our income tax expense of $36 million for the first quarter represented an effective tax rate of 20.6%, an improvement from 22.6% for the year earlier quarter.

第一季我們的所得稅費用為 3,600 萬美元，有效稅率為 20.6%，比去年同期的 22.6% 有所提高。

This improvement was predominantly due to an increase in tax benefits related to stock-based compensation in the current period.

這項改善主要是由於本期與股票薪酬相關的稅收優惠增加。

We expect our effective tax rate for the 2024 second quarter to be approximately 24% and for the full year to be approximately 23% due to the low rate realized in the first quarter.

由於第一季實現的稅率較低，我們預計 2024 年第二季的有效稅率約為 24%，全年的有效稅率約為 23%。

Overall, our first quarter net income increased 10% year-over-year to $138.7 million, and our diluted earnings per share improved 21% to $1.76, reflecting both the growth in net income and the favourable impact of common stock repurchases over the past year.

總體而言，我們第一季淨利潤年增 10%，達到 1.387 億美元，稀釋後每股收益成長 21%，達到 1.76 美元，反映了淨利潤的成長和過去一年普通股回購的有利影響。

Turning now to community count, our first quarter average of 240 was down 4% from the corresponding 2023 quarter.

現在轉向社區數量，我們第一季的平均值為 240 個，比 2023 年相應季度下降了 4%。

We ended the quarter with 238 communities.

本季結束時，我們有 238 個社區。

We expect to grow our portfolio of communities during the second quarter by about 5% and end with approximately 250 communities.

我們預計第二季我們的社區組合將成長約 5%，最終達到約 250 個社區。

This would result in an average community count for the second quarter of 244.

這將導致第二季的平均社區數量為 244 個。

We remain focused on growing our community count and believe our average community count in the 2024 third and fourth quarters will be higher than in the prior year period.

我們仍然專注於增加社區數量，並相信 2024 年第三季和第四季的平均社區數量將高於去年同期。

In addition, our current outlook reflects approximately 260 open communities at year end, which is about 10 fewer than we previously expected.

此外，我們目前的展望反映了年底約有 260 個開放社區，比我們先前的預期少了約 10 個。

As a result of the stronger selling environment anticipated to drive more 2024 sellouts as well as a handful of communities now expected to open during the 2025 first quarter.

由於強勁的銷售環境預計將推動 2024 年的銷售量增加，少數社區預計將在 2025 年第一季開業。

We invested approximately $590 million in land and development during the first quarter, and we ended the quarter with a pipeline of approximately 55,500 lots owned or under contract.

第一季度，我們在土地和開發方面投資了約 5.9 億美元，本季末，我們擁有或簽訂合約的待售土地約 55,500 塊。

During the first quarter we repurchased nearly 830,000 shares of our common stock at an average price of $60.48. As Jeff mentioned, we intend to continue to repurchase shares and expect the pace, volume and timing of share repurchases to be based on considerations of our cash flow, liquidity outlook, land investment opportunities and needs the market price of our shares in the housing market and general economic environment.

第一季度，我們以 60.48 美元的平均價格回購了近 830,000 股普通股。正如傑夫所提到的，我們打算繼續回購股票，並預期股票回購的速度、數量和時機將基於我們的現金流、流動性前景、土地投資機會以及我們股票在房地產市場的市場價格的考慮和總體經濟環境。

At quarter end, our total liquidity was approximately $1.75 billion, including over $1.08 billion of available capacity under our unsecured revolving credit facility and $668 million of cash.

截至季末，我們的總流動資金約為 17.5 億美元，其中包括無擔保循環信貸額度下超過 10.8 億美元的可用容量和 6.68 億美元的現金。

Our quarter end stockholders' equity increased to approximately $3.9 billion and our book value per share was up 14% year-over-year to $51.14.

我們的季末股東權益增至約 39 億美元，每股帳面價值年增 14% 至 51.14 美元。

In conclusion, we are pleased with our first quarter financial performance and expect to see solid housing market conditions for the remainder of 2024, driven by favourable demographic trends, the ongoing imbalance of housing supply and demand and expected moderation in interest rates later in the year.

總而言之，我們對第一季的財務表現感到滿意，並預計在有利的人口趨勢、住房供需持續失衡以及今年稍後利率預期放緩的推動下，2024 年剩餘時間住房市場狀況將保持穩健。

We intend to sustain our focus on generating reductions across our operations and build times and construction costs, while also driving growth and expanding our scale through land-related investments for new community openings.

我們打算繼續專注於減少營運、建造時間和建設成本，同時透過與土地相關的新社區投資來推動成長並擴大我們的規模。

We plan to maintain our balanced approach to capital allocation, encompassing significant cash deployment back in the land and development to produce top line growth while also returning cash to stockholders through common stock repurchases and dividends with an overall focus on long-term stockholder value creation.

我們計劃保持平衡的資本配置方式，包括將大量現金部署回土地和開發，以產生收入增長，同時透過普通股回購和股息向股東返還現金，整體關注長期股東價值創造。

We will now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

John, please open the line.

約翰，請接通電話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will now conduct a question and answer session.

我們現在將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·博利，巴克萊銀行。

You have Elizabeth on line for Matt today.

今天伊麗莎白在線接聽馬特。

And so just kind of starting off with at the margin, would you mind talking a little bit about the margin cadence through the year?

因此，從利潤率開始，您介意談談全年的利潤率節奏嗎？

And you're assuming that next quarter will be impacted by the higher incentive levels in the latter part of 2023.

您假設下個季度將受到 2023 年下半年更高激勵水準的影響。

When do you mind talking a little bit about what we should expect for the second half?

你什麼時候介意談談我們對下半年的期望嗎？

And, you know, kind of what you're seeing with incentive levels right now and how those how you'd expect those to flow through?

而且，你知道，你現在看到的激勵程度是什麼，以及你期望這些程度如何實現？

Sure.

當然。

Yeah, as I mentioned in prepared remarks, we do expect some improvement in the second half of the year to arrive at the overall guide for the full year of 21% and 21.4%.

是的，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們確實預計下半年會有所改善，達到全年 21% 和 21.4% 的整體指引。

And what we are seeing on particularly this year and actually part of last year, pretty stable gross margin outlook quarter to quarter.

我們特別是在今年，實際上是去年的一部分，每個季度的毛利率前景都相當穩定。

We're basically forecasting plus or minus 21% in all four quarters of this year.

我們基本上預測今年所有四個季度的正負 21%。

And you'll see some improvement obviously in the back half, particularly in the fourth quarter with some improved leverage based on higher deliveries and more revenues.

您會在後半段看到明顯的改善，特別是在第四季度，基於更高的交付量和更多的收入，槓桿率有所改善。

So that's really the outlook at the current at the current time.

這就是當前的前景。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

And would you mind touching a little bit on what you're seeing around buyer affordability and maybe your expectations around pricing?

您介意談談您對買家負擔能力的看法以及您對定價的期望嗎？

Do you think that you've said that you think that you can probably bring mortgage mortgage concessions down a little bit and our buyers are more responsive to something other than rate buydowns are they seeing apps like increasing their customization options or anything that you're seeing around that.

您是否認為您說過您可能可以稍微降低抵押貸款優惠，我們的買家對除利率購買之外的其他事情更敏感，他們是否看到了諸如增加定制選項之類的應用程序或任何您想要的東西？看到周圍。

But there were a lot of components to that question was what I can make a few comments and then pass it to Rob for some of the specifics on our buyer profile.

但這個問題有很多組成部分，我可以發表一些評論，然後將其傳遞給羅布，以了解我們買家資料的一些細節。

As we shared in our comments in the first quarter, we were focused on building our backlog and driving more sales.

正如我們在第一季的評論中所分享的那樣，我們專注於建立積壓訂單並推動更多銷售。

So we left the incentive levels for mortgage concessions similar to the prior quarter and push the pace and where we could.

因此，我們對抵押貸款優惠的激勵程度與上一季相似，並盡可能加快步伐。

We took some I call it moderate price increases in my prepared remarks.

我們在我準備好的演講中採取了一些我稱之為適度價格上漲的措施。

So part of optimizing the assets, build our backlog set up the scale for the year get to get a higher absorption pace and then start working a little bit on margins along the way, as we shared in the credit metrics of our buyers, we have a very strong buyer profile right now.

因此，作為優化資產的一部分，建立我們的積壓訂單，設定今年的規模，以獲得更高的吸收速度，然後開始在利潤方面做一些工作，正如我們在買家的信用指標中所分享的那樣，我們有現在有非常強大的買家資料。

In particular, when 50% of our buyers are first time we put it in that context and think of the FICO scores and in the average down payment, this is a very well qualified buyer.

特別是，當我們 50% 的買家是第一次將其放在這樣的背景下並考慮 FICO 分數和平均首付時，這是一個非常合格​​的買家。

We're not having an issue with qualifying, as you can see from our pull through on the backlog and frankly, the orders that were generated while taking a little bit of price for what we've been poking around on what's going on with the buyer and the sensitivities to debt ratios and income and qualified.

我們在排位賽方面沒有問題，正如您從我們對積壓訂單的處理中看到的那樣，坦率地說，在我們一直在探索的情況下產生的訂單是在收取一點價格的情況下產生的。買方對債務比率和收入的敏感度並合格。

Rob can give you some specifics on that.

羅布可以給你一些具體資訊。

Go ahead, Rob.

繼續吧，羅布。

Yes, as far as the credit ratios, debt ratios, we're really not seeing any major change.

是的，就信貸比率、債務比率而言，我們確實沒有看到任何重大變化。

In fact, on our closings.

事實上，在我們關閉時。

We've seen that income ratios fall slightly.

我們看到收入比率略有下降。

So still a really well-heeled buyer.

所以仍然是一個非常富有的買家。

They've got sufficient income, got good credit, seeing demand at our price points.

他們有足夠的收入，有良好的信用，在我們的價位上看到了需求。

And I think that speaks to the price points that were out of the quality of our product.

我認為這說明價格點超出了我們產品的品質。

You mentioned studio and buyer behavior, what they're picking for design choices.

您提到了工作室和買家的行為，以及他們對設計選擇的選擇。

And I think this speaks to that as well.

我認為這也說明了這一點。

We really haven't seen a change in studio spin despite some of the affordability challenges that are out there in the markets.

儘管市場上存在一些負擔能力的挑戰，但我們確實沒有看到工作室旋轉的變化。

And we've seen some shift in what they're spending that money on more things like permanent features in the home, but room configurations or cabinets or converting it into a bedroom thing that you can easily change down the road.

我們看到他們把錢花在更多的事情上，例如家裡的永久功能，但房間配置或櫥櫃，或者把它改造成臥室的東西，你可以很容易地在路上改變。

But between everything that Jeff just mentioned and the credit and income levels that we talked about.

但在傑夫剛才提到的一切和我們談論的信用和收入水平之間。

In addition, we haven't really seen a shift in the square footage that buyers are purchasing.

此外，我們還沒有真正看到買家購買的面積發生變化。

So pretty confident that our buyers are in and they've got the ability to qualify, and we're seeing that in our results today.

我們非常有信心我們的買家已經加入並且他們有能力獲得資格，我們在今天的結果中看到了這一點。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金，Evercore ISI。

Thanks very much, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

Appreciate all the color as always on and yes, congrats on the good results.

一如既往地欣賞所有顏色，是的，祝賀取得了良好的結果。

Couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

Number one, I was wondering if you could give us a sense for what we should be thinking about for in 2024, a kind of a targeted level of operating cash flow as a percentage of net income that can have cash for sorry, cash conversion, what sort of level we should be thinking about for you?

第一，我想知道你是否能讓我們了解 2024 年我們應該考慮什麼，一種目標經營現金流佔淨利潤的百分比，可以有現金，抱歉，現金轉換，我們應該為您考慮什麼樣的水平？

And then also from a longer-term perspective, operating margin profitability has been improving.

而且從更長期的角度來看，營業利益率一直在改善。

What do you think a level of a longer term sustainable operating margin can be for your company?

您認為貴公司的長期可持續營業利潤率水準是多少？

I'm sort of thinking maybe 13% or something like that was wondering if you could respond to that?

我想也許有 13% 或類似的人想知道你是否可以對此做出回應？

Sure, two questions or one here, Steve?

當然，有兩個問題還是一個問題，史蒂夫？

Now that's just one, Jeff.

現在這只是其中之一，傑夫。

We'll give you a break, we'll let you ask a follow-up.

我們會讓你休息一下，我們會讓你問後續情況。

Okay.

好的。

So the first question on cash flow, as you guys are probably fairly used to with us, I mean, we don't really go out and forecast cash flow through the fiscal year because it depends on a lot of factors, including most predominantly including land spend.

因此，關於現金流的第一個問題，正如你們可能對我們很熟悉的那樣，我的意思是，我們並沒有真正出去預測整個財政年度的現金流，因為它取決於許多因素，其中最重要的是土地支出。

And then over the past couple of years, the level of buybacks that you have to go off top and look at operating cash flow.

然後在過去的幾年裡，你必須仔細考慮經營現金流的回購水準。

The big opportunity for us continues to be in the area of build time and reduction in build time.

對我們來說，巨大的機會仍然存在於建置時間和減少建置時間領域。

We mined a lot of that cash last year where we had a very significant of improvement and construction cycle time and it freed up a ton of cash for us, put us in the really strong balance sheet position we're in today with a lot of liquidity and a lot of dry powder to go back and buy shares and reinvest in land.

去年我們開採了大量現金，我們進行了非常重大的改進和建設週期時間，它為我們釋放了大量現金，使我們處於今天的非常強大的資產負債表位置，有很多流動性和大量的乾粉回去買股票，再投資土地。

We anticipate continued success of that and continued strong and healthy cash flow.

我們預計將繼續取得成功，並持續強勁和健康的現金流。

But acknowledging that a lot of the oversized or supersized gains that we had, the reduction in build times was it's a little bit behind us at this point.

但要承認我們所獲得的許多超大或超大的收益，建造時間的減少在這一點上已經有點落後了。

So sorry, your second question was on 13% below the 13% and the operating margin?

抱歉，您的第二個問題是關於 13% 以下的 13% 和營業利益率？

Yes, I think like when you look at I saw your report and I know that there was the number you had in there.

是的，我想當你看我看到你的報告時，我知道裡面有你的號碼。

Look, it is definitely within reach.

看吧，絕對是觸手可及的。

I mean, why we're not going to go out and guide or, you know, lay out a plan for the company [as we announced] during the Q&A period of our quarterly conference call.

我的意思是，為什麼我們不打算在季度電話會議的問答環節中出去指導，或者，你知道，為公司製定計劃（正如我們所宣布的那樣）。

But yes, we've been working addition to that already, and I'd hope to see improvement actually over and above that over time.

但是，是的，我們已經在對此進行補充，並且我希望隨著時間的推移能夠看到實際的改進。

That just requires about a point decrease and what we're anticipating for this year is SG&A, which I think comes with with scale and size and leverage and somewhat higher SG&A costs at this point.

這只需要減少大約一個百分點，而我們今年預計的是SG&A，我認為這伴隨著規模、規模和槓桿，以及此時SG&A成本的較高。

And as the market stabilizes and improves particularly with the declining rates we do expect to see and reinforced today by some of the [Fed's] comments moving away from some of the incentives, which you know is not really part of our business model to get into that low 20s range.

隨著市場穩定和改善，特別是隨著利率下降，我們確實預計會看到這種情況，並且今天美聯儲的一些評論將放棄某些激勵措施，這些評論實際上並不是我們商業模式的一部分。20多歲的範圍。

I mean, we're already there, but to improve on where we're at today on the gross margin side.

我的意思是，我們已經做到了這一點，但要在毛利率方面提高我們今天的水平。

So I think it's a reasonable assumption.

所以我認為這是一個合理的假設。

I think it's up.

我想已經到了

I would like to think it's on the very conservative side as far as the long range target for the Company and certainly attainable so we have that basically my comments on that at a very high level.

我認為，就公司的長期目標而言，這是非常保守的，而且肯定是可以實現的，所以我們基本上在一個非常高的水平上發表了我的評論。

Appreciate that.

感謝。

Thanks very much, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

It's really encouraging.

這確實令人鼓舞。

Second question relates to the big news regarding the NAR's settlement that obviously, I think has created a lot of turmoil.

第二個問題涉及 NAR 和解協議的重大消息，我認為這顯然造成了很多混亂。

What I'm intrigued about is the potential for this confusion and the relatively quick timeframe by which all these changes need to be made, whether that might result in a somewhat dysfunctional retail market that large builders such as yourselves can capitalize on with your Internet presences, which I know you've substantially bolstered over the last several years.

我感興趣的是這種混亂的可能性，以及所有這些改變需要相對較快的時間框架，這是否會導致零售市場功能失調，像你們這樣的大型建築商可以利用你們的互聯網存在來利用，我知道你們在過去幾年大力支持了這一點。

And so my question is, can you give us a sense for what share of your leads today are generated through the Internet and do those Internet driven leads carry a lower SG&A burden on when they ultimately come through in sales?

所以我的問題是，您能否讓我們了解一下，您現在有多少銷售線索是透過網路產生的？這些網路驅動的銷售線索最終在銷售中實現時，其 SG&A 負擔是否較低？

[Rob], do you have any detail on that on the Internet leads and the profile?

[Rob]，您有關於網路線索和個人資料的任何詳細資訊嗎？

[Steve, not that how steep] that not so much is the percentage, I would say the majority of the buyers that are finding us are finding us through those avenues and we've seen a big increase and our Internet leads just overall, it was up 30%, 34% year-over-year.

[史蒂夫，不是那麼陡峭] 百分比並不那麼高，我想說，大多數找到我們的買家都是通過這些途徑找到我們的，我們已經看到了大幅增長，我們的互聯網總體上處於領先地位，它年增30%、34%。

So pretty big movement there.

那裡有相當大的動靜。

As far as the opportunity with the NAR and the settlement, I think it's still a little cloudy to predict how that's going to go.

至於 NAR 的機會和和解，我認為預測事情將如何發展仍然有點模糊。

I think, if anything, it's going to be a positive for us with the and potentially less that's being paid and broker co-ops and things like that.

我認為，如果有的話，這對我們來說是積極的，因為支付的費用和經紀人合作社之類的東西可能會更少。

But I think there's a lot to be worked out there when that goes into effect this summer.

但我認為，當法案今年夏天生效時，還有很多事情需要解決。

One of the one of the components of it is that the compensation can't be advertised on the MLS, but then they likely have other ways to advertise that through Facebook or other methods or face to face.

其中一個組成部分是薪酬不能在 MLS 上進行廣告，但他們可能有其他方式透過 Facebook 或其他方法或面對面進行廣告。

So a lot of that remains to be seen.

所以很多事情還有待觀察。

Certainly don't see it as a downside to us.

當然不認為這對我們來說是個缺點。

Our results or our financials potentially an upside, but I think it's a little too early to tell.

我們的業績或財務狀況可能會帶來好處，但我認為現在下結論還為時過早。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Hey, guys.

大家好。

Good afternoon and nice quarter and appreciate all the color so far.

下午好，美好的季度，欣賞迄今為止的所有顏色。

So my first question, and I really appreciate all the statistics you gave on the credit side.

這是我的第一個問題，我非常感謝您在信用方面提供的所有統計數據。

I was admittedly a little surprised from one of your competitors last week kind of talked a little bit about and some rising early-stage red yellow flags or red flags and some of their customer credit metrics like credit card delinquencies and things like that.

誠然，我對上週你們的一位競爭對手談論了一些上升的早期紅黃旗或紅旗以及他們的一些客戶信用指標（例如信用卡拖欠等）感到有點驚訝。

And I just want to make sure I'm thinking about your commentary in the same vein because I think a lot of the statistics you gave are maybe on closings and kind of more representative of might what might have been going on six months or so ago.

我只是想確保我以同樣的方式思考你的評論，因為我認為你提供的許多統計數據可能是關於關閉的，並且更能代表六個月左右前可能發生的情況。

So can you just be clear that you are not seeing any signs of stress in kind of real time in terms of the consumers that are coming through your model homes today?

那麼您能否明確表示，對於今天參觀您的樣品屋的消費者來說，您沒有即時看到任何壓力跡象？

I'll take that one.

我會接受那個。

I mean really when I was speaking about the debt to income ratios earlier, that actually was based on sales not closing than we've seen both ratios improved slightly over the last few quarters now our leads are up.

我的意思是，當我早些時候談到債務與收入比率時，這實際上是基於未完成的銷售，我們在過去幾個季度中看到這兩個比率略有改善，現在我們的領先優勢已經上升。

I talked a little bit about the Internet leads, so we're seeing a lot more people.

我談了一些關於網路的線索，所以我們看到了更多的人。

So the raw number of people that don't qualify as increased.

因此，不符合資格的原始人數有所增加。

But as far as the percentage, I don't really see that that's changed much.

但就百分比而言，我並沒有真正看到變化太大。

And we're not we're not seeing those pressures at this point.

我們目前還沒有看到這些壓力。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

No, (Multiple speakers) point to our I'd point to our can rate to only 10 rigs now below normal for us and I think that's the side buyers' ability to perform.

不，（多個發言者）指出我們的情況，我想說的是，我們現在只能對 10 台鑽機進行評級，低於我們的正常水平，我認為這就是側面買家的執行能力。

Yes, that makes sense.

是的，這是有道理的。

And I appreciate the clarification on that.

我很感謝對此的澄清。

So my second question is on kind of the land portfolio and nice pickup in land acquisition activity in the quarter.

所以我的第二個問題是關於土地投資組合的類型以及本季土地收購活動的良好回升。

Your lot count and I'm looking at this correctly, is down about 10% year-over-year, down almost 40% from two years ago.

我的判斷是正確的，你的批次數量比去年同期下降了約 10%，比兩年前下降了近 40%。

And your years' supply of land is kind of hovering in that 4-ish year metric, which is among the lower in the industry.

你們每年的土地供應量徘徊在四年左右的指標上，這是產業中較低的指標之一。

And I'm just curious, is that would you say that by design as an effort to kind of improve your capital efficiency or turnover or is that land supply?

我只是很好奇，您會說這是透過設計來提高資本效率或營業額的努力，還是土地供應？

I know you mentioned you've got all the land you need for '25, but would you like to see that land pipeline a little bit higher than it is currently?

我知道你提到你已經擁有 25 年所需的所有土地，但你希望看到土地管道比目前高一點嗎？

Actually, there's a lot of moving parts to it and you reflect back on the push and pull we've been through.

事實上，其中有很多變化的部分，你可以回顧我們所經歷的推動和拉動。

There was a couple of times over the past few years where we pulled out of the land market because it was cloudy what's really happening post COVID.

在過去的幾年裡，我們有幾次退出土地市場，因為新冠疫情之後的情況並不明朗。

And then that took off that interest rate drawn and things stalled.

然後，提取的利率就開始上升，事情就陷入了停滯。

So you get pulled back again and then you reset and we extended a lot of deals.

所以你又被拉回來，然後你重新調整，我們延長了很多交易。

We renegotiated, we did a lot of things kept the control of the assets that we might.

我們重新談判，我們做了很多事情來保持對我們可能的資產的控制。

So it's kind of deceptive to look at two years ago because that was long periods where we walked out of a lot of options at that time because they weren't making the sense that they did when they were first tied up.

因此，回顧兩年前的情況有點欺騙性，因為在很長一段時間裡，我們當時放棄了許多選擇，因為它們沒有像第一次被捆綁時那樣有意義。

So we're comfortable with where we're at.

所以我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

We have that healthy tension.

我們有那種健康的緊張感。

We need lots for '26 and beyond, but we don't have to do something outside of our underwriting in order to fill the pipeline.

我們需要大量 26 年及以後的產品，但我們不必在承保之外做任何事情來填補管道。

So we're we have a healthy discipline that we're adhering to.

所以我們有我們所遵守的健康紀律。

And yet at the same time, we're encouraging the divisions to grow.

但同時，我們鼓勵部門發展。

So it have four years of buying actually the end of August.

所以它有四年的購買時間，實際上是在八月底。

That's probably a little high.

這可能有點高。

I'd rather have more control less only if we can get there, but we're pretty comfortable with our position heading into '26.

如果我們能到達那裡，我寧願擁有更多的控制權，但我們對進入 26 年的情況感到非常滿意。

Right now, it's a focus on '26 and beyond.

目前，重點關注 26 年後的情況。

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

Hey, guys, thank you for taking my questions.

嘿，夥計們，謝謝你們回答我的問題。

The first one is, can you just help us with the drivers of the 60 basis point gross margin beat versus your expectations in the first quarter and then help us with sort of the walk from the first quarter to the second quarter in terms of factors like deleverage, impact mix, net price, et cetera?

第一個是，您能否幫助我們了解第一季毛利率超出您的預期 60 個基點的驅動因素，然後幫助我們從第一季到第二季的發展過程中考慮以下因素：去槓桿化、影響組合、淨價等等？

So yes, there were a few things that came into that.

所以是的，其中涉及到一些事情。

One was we had a little bit of mix shift.

其中之一是我們進行了一些混合轉變。

So we pulled And interestingly, we put a lot of the higher margin deliveries out of Q2 into Q1 on an incremental basis towards the end of the quarter, which, you know, we're always striving to close many homes as we can and trying to get those behind us.

有趣的是，我們在本季末將大量利潤率較高的交付從第二季度逐步轉移到第一季度，你知道，我們一直在努力關閉許多房屋並嘗試讓那些人落後於我們。

And this time the mix worked out in our favour where we had some pickup on that side, the can rate was a pretty important factor for us as well, where we didn't have to resell homes that had already been in our backlog at healthy margins and we had to quickly discount those homes to get them sold in the quarter so that helped us incrementally and we've been really not as part of the forecast go.

這次的組合對我們有利，我們在這一方面有一些提貨，罐頭率對我們來說也是一個非常重要的因素，我們不必轉售已經在我們積壓的房屋在健康我們必須快速對這些房屋進行折扣才能在本季度售出，這樣才能逐漸幫助我們，而我們實際上並沒有成為預測的一部分。

That's always a difficult one to forecast out so we did I will say, you know, as we are forecasting the 21% for the first quarter anticipated a can rate similar to what we had seen the prior two quarters and then have a little bit tucked away on that, that increment.

這始終是一個很難預測的問題，所以我們做到了，我會說，你知道，因為我們預測第一季的 21%，預計罐頭率與我們前兩個季度看到的類似，然後有一點隱藏遠離那個，那個增量。

And so those were the main drivers we like to be like being up.

這些是我們希望起床的主要動力。

You know, when you look at it sequentially.

當你按順序看的時候你就知道了。

We're really base in the second quarter, predominantly off what's in our backlog.

我們在第二季的表現確實不錯，主要是我們積壓的訂單。

And we really saw sort of a tick up in some of those incentives and whatnot back in those times and those sales were booked in their comments through them.

我們確實看到了一些激勵措施和當時的情況有所增加，這些銷售是透過他們在評論中記錄的。

The final thing, and it's always the same and I know everything he's chairing it, including me oftentimes, but mix plays a big part of this, you know, between communities, high-margin, low-margin communities, between regions and between divisions.

最後一件事，總是一樣的，我知道他主持的一切，包括我，但混合在其中發揮著重要作用，你知道，在社區之間、高利潤、低利潤社區之間、地區之間和部門之間。

So all of those factors sort of come together in that.

所以所有這些因素都聚集在一起。

And yes, you're plus or minus a percent quarter over quarter over quarter.

是的，季度環比增加或減少了一個百分點。

And for the most part, it kind of reflects an operation that's running pretty smoothly upon pulling your deliveries, stronger backlog and that team that cancellations are not having many much pressure on you to resell homes in closing in the current quarter due to cancellations.

在很大程度上，這反映了在拉動交付後運行相當順利的運營，更強勁的積壓，以及取消取消的團隊不會對您在本季度結束時因取消而轉售房屋產生太大壓力。

And we really like the steady environment that we saw in the first quarter, it was a really nice start to the year for us, and we're looking for aggressively resolving that, particularly on selling to the spring.

我們真的很喜歡第一季看到的穩定環境，這對我們來說是今年的一個非常好的開始，我們正在尋求積極解決這個問題，特別是在春季銷售方面。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful, Jeff.

這很有幫助，傑夫。

And then if we think about the slight uptick in the outlook for SG&A as a percentage of sales to 10.2%, I mean that's coming with slightly fewer communities than you were previously expecting a little bit of an uptick in sales.

然後，如果我們考慮 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比略有上升至 10.2%，我的意思是，與您之前預期的銷售額略有上升相比，社區數量略少。

But I guess the question is, you know, does that reflect the need for higher broker commissions or higher marketing spend, things of that nature.

但我想問題是，你知道，這是否反映出需要更高的經紀人佣金或更高的行銷支出，諸如此類的事情。

What exactly is driving that slight uptick?

到底是什麼推動了這種小漲？

It has nothing to do with the condition side of it.

它與它的條件面無關。

We are putting a little bit more money in the marketing and advertising as we talked about on the community count, as you pointed out, you know, declining I mean, the half that decline was really due to earlier sellouts and the communities.

正如我們談到的社區數量一樣，我們在行銷和廣告上投入了更多的資金，正如您所指出的，您知道，下降我的意思是，下降的一半實際上是由於早期的售罄和社區造成的。

The other half is just a few communities that pushed out into the first half of '25.

另一半只是 25 年上半年推出的幾個社群。

So we're still planning on spending money, marketing advertising et cetera, for those communities yet in the fourth quarter as we're approaching openings on those.

因此，我們仍然計劃在第四季度為這些社群投入資金、行銷廣告等，因為我們即將開放這些社群。

So it really didn't impact that in a way were allowed us to reduce expenses on that side.

因此，這確實沒有影響我們在某種程度上減少了這方面的開支。

But I think overall, if you did go right up top on the SG&A side, we're just we're just preparing the company to operate at a larger scale.

但我認為總的來說，如果你確實在SG&A方面走在了前面，那麼我們只是在為公司更大規模的營運做好準備。

We're putting in some personnel resources where we need it.

我們正在根據需要投入一些人力資源。

Rob talked a bit about some of the operational assignments and promotions and positions that we have in the business as we're expanding the size of our of our divisions and the focus on growth and and returns.

羅布談了一些我們在業務中的營運任務、晉升和職位，因為我們正在擴大我們部門的規模以及對成長和回報的關注。

And we just feel that scaling up this company will do some really good things for profitability.

我們只是覺得擴大這家公司的規模將為獲利帶來一些真正好的事情。

Capital efficiency and returns, and we're really well positioned at that point in time having just a rock-solid balance sheet and fixing a lot of the issues that were nagging for many, many years, and we're well beyond those at this point.

資本效率和回報，我們當時確實處於有利位置，擁有堅如磐石的資產負債表，並解決了許多多年來困擾我們的問題，而且我們遠遠超出了目前的水平觀點。

So we're just done looking forward to growing this company, growing the returns as we move forward.

因此，我們只是期待這家公司的發展，隨著我們的前進而增加回報。

Michael Rehaut, JP Morgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Hi, this is

嗨，這是

[Andrew ozion from Mike].

[麥克的安德魯·奧茲恩]。

I appreciate taking my question.

我很高興提出我的問題。

I guess just more on the longer-term side, should we be expecting any kind of change to your mix going forward as you grow?

我想從長遠來看，隨著你們的成長，我們是否應該期待你們的組合會發生任何變化？

I believe in 4Q, your closings, your mix was roughly 50% entry level, 25% move up and the rest being active adult and second-time move-up?

我相信在第四季度，你們的成交量、你們的組合大約是 50% 的入門級、25% 的上漲，其餘的是活躍的成人和第二次上漲？

Yes, I think the market will dictate that more than we will.

是的，我認為市場會比我們更決定這一點。

And I say that because we are built to order our company and your focus on the median incomes in the submarkets that you're operating and you cater to everybody and you have a product out there where it may shift to more move up and be the lesser footages, lower price points or it can shift to the first move up in the larger home and a bigger, higher income in the second move up.

我這麼說是因為我們是為了訂購我們的公司而建立的，而你專注於你所經營的子市場的中位收入，你迎合每個人，你有一個產品，它可能會轉向更多的移動並成為更少的鏡頭，更低的價格點，或者它可以轉移到更大的房子的第一次搬遷，並在第二次搬遷中獲得更大、更高的收入。

But the market will take that dictate that to a degree, our strategy and our positioning is not going to change.

但市場將在某種程度上接受這項決定，我們的策略和定位不會改變。

So I would say it's realistic, I guess, to assume will be 45% to 60% first time.

所以我想說，我認為第一次假設為 45% 到 60% 是現實的。

And the other buyer components may move around a little bit.

其他買家組件可能會略有變動。

We've been around 15% active adult for years and years.

多年來，我們的活躍成年人比例一直在 15% 左右。

It's a natural attraction due to them.

這是他們的天然吸引力。

The climate zones that we operate in and a lot of retirees come in and like our product as well.

我們經營所在的氣候區和許多退休人員也來到這裡並喜歡我們的產品。

So we don't we don't target a specific buyer profile.

所以我們不針對特定的買家資料。

We target an income and a price point and then let the buyers common when you're at the meeting of the market.

我們確定收入和價格點，然後在市場見面時讓買家共同參與。

It will move around a little bit like it does, but it should stay in the same range we're seeing. it's for our customer.

它會像它一樣移動一點，但它應該保持在我們看到的相同範圍內。這是給我們的客戶的。

Thanks for the help.

謝謝您的幫忙。

[I'll pass it on]

[我會轉達]

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good aftertnoon everyone.

大家下午好。

My first question is thinking about the potential for lower rates, maybe an increase in activity on the ground in general, you see that as we move through the year.

我的第一個問題是考慮降低利率的可能性，也許總體上會增加當地的活動，隨著今年的進展，你會看到這一點。

But what about the ability to retain the improvements that you've seen in the build times in the cycle times and to retain the labor force and to keep things moving at the rate that they have been more recently?

但是，能否保留您在周期時間中看到的構建時間的改進、保留勞動力以及保持事物以最近的速度前進的能力呢？

I think the opportunity there too is as they continue to capture some build time.

我認為機會也存在，因為他們繼續抓住一些建造時間。

And as you look back only the labor shortages and the supply chain disruptions that we celebrated, I must say that on either side, as those companies learned a lot and addressed it and fixed it, whether it's hiring more people or fixing some of the glitches in the supply chain, whether national or international.

當你回顧我們所慶祝的勞動力短缺和供應鏈中斷時，我必須說，無論是在哪一方面，這些公司都學到了很多東西，解決了問題並修復了它，無論是僱用更多的人還是解決一些問題無論是國內供應鏈或國際供應鏈。

And those are off are all healing, if not healed.

那些被關閉的人即使沒有痊癒，也都在痊癒。

And I think we can still pick up some some build time compression.

我認為我們仍然可以進行一些構建時間壓縮。

And I think we can control costs and in part because we're going to have even greater scale in the markets we operate in where we have relationships in some cases, 40 years old with our contractor base.

我認為我們可以控製成本，部分原因是我們將在我們經營的市場中擁有更大的規模，在某些情況下，我們與我們的承包商基地有 40 年的關係。

So we see the if the interest rates do come down in the markets warm up a little bit, it will be a tailwind for us.

因此，我們認為，如果市場稍微回升時利率確實下降，這對我們來說將是一個順風車。

We don't think it will create the build time issues and cost pressures.

我們認為這不會造成建置時間問題和成本壓力。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then maybe just turning to capital allocation.

然後也許只是轉向資本配置。

Can you talk a little bit about how you're thinking of that is in continuing to buy back some stock, which is nice to see if anything there that's changed or incremental and how we should be thinking about it?

您能否談談您如何看待繼續回購一些股票，這很高興看到是否有任何變化或增量，以及我們應該如何考慮它？

Yes, I can tell you, based on the prepared comments I made, we're going to keep repurchasing shares at least the next $113 million that's authorized.

是的，我可以告訴你，根據我準備好的評論，我們將繼續回購股票，至少在接下來的 1.13 億美元授權中。

So that's the first time we've signalled an intent.

這是我們第一次表達意向。

We've been active in share repurchases for three years now, pretty consistently.

三年來，我們一直積極參與股票回購，而且一直非常活躍。

And he's been a big, big boost both to our book value per share and our EPS and it helps your ROE along the way.

他對我們的每股帳面價值和每股盈餘都有很大的推動作用，這對你的股本回報率也有很大幫助。

And in part is because of all the cash we've generated, and we're still sitting on a large our cash balance with nothing now on our revolver.

部分原因是我們已經產生了所有現金，但我們仍然擁有大量現金餘額，而我們的左輪手槍現在什麼都沒有。

And we think we have the ability to invest in growth and continue to toggle and give more cash back to shareholders.

我們認為我們有能力投資於成長，並繼續轉變並向股東返還更多現金。

So we think we can do both through '24.

所以我們認為我們可以在 24 年之前做到這兩點。

Now if you have anything else you want to go.

現在如果你還有什麼想去的。

I think that summarizes it yet again and then focus some years ago.

我認為這再次總結了它，然後集中在幾年前。

I mean, we had a focus on the balance sheet from the point of view, paying us in debt and realigning the leverage ratio.

我的意思是，從支付債務和重新調整槓桿率的角度來看，我們關注的是資產負債表。

That's certainly behind us at this point.

現在這肯定已經過去了。

And it's full speed ahead with growth improving returns, increasing scale and returning cash to shareholders is key components and capital allocation strategy.

它的全速成長、提高回報、擴大規模和向股東返還現金是關鍵組成部分和資本配置策略。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

拉夫·賈德羅西奇，美國銀行。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

But can you talk about the level of inflation you're seeing today on maybe on a cash basis in terms of land and development costs as well as materials.

但您能談談您今天所看到的土地、開發成本以及材料成本的通貨膨脹水平嗎？

Rob, you want to take that?

羅布，你想要那個嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

It's some it's really been kind of spotty on what's moving up and downs in regards to materials and in there, some that we've been able to lower our costs last year and its stock and others where it's continuing to go up in a concrete one that comes to mind that a lot of infrastructure projects going on in most of the cities that we operate in.

在材料方面，有些方面的上下波動確實參差不齊，有些方面我們去年已經能夠降低成本及其庫存，而另一些方面則在具體方面繼續上升。我想到的是，我們經營所在的大多數城市正在進行大量基礎設施項目。

So concrete, one that plated pretty quickly and seems almost programmatic with some of the numbers that we're seeing.

如此具體，很快就形成了，看起來幾乎是我們所看到的一些數字的程式化。

As far as the development goes, we're working from really favorable cost basis in our land, and we're well positioned to sustain solid gross margins given we've got that land cost basis favorability, but the cost to develop those lost those assets has gone up.

就開發而言，我們正在以非常有利的土地成本為基礎開展工作，鑑於我們已經獲得了有利的土地成本基礎，我們有能力維持穩定的毛利率，但開發那些失去了這些的成本資產漲了。

And it is the most significant are the contractor labor costs I mentioned the infrastructure work that's driving part of that and then just growth in overall construction for home building, too.

最重要的是承包商勞動成本，我提到基礎設施工程是其中的一部分，然後是住宅建築整體建設的成長。

But with respect to development, the kind of a little bit easier to measure because there aren't as many parts and pieces going into it, depending on the division, we're seeing anywhere from a low to mid double digit range to in some cases, a little bit higher than actually I'm sorry, what low to mid single digits to low double digits is what we're saying.

但就開發而言，這種情況更容易衡量，因為沒有那麼多零件和零件，取決於部門，我們看到從低到中兩位數範圍到某些情況，比實際情況要高一點，抱歉，我們所說的是低到中個位數到低兩位數。

And yes, we're looking at these lots in communities that we're developing and it's really inflation that we're going to experience in our closings as we get out into 2025.

是的，我們正在研究我們正在開發的社區中的這些地塊，當我們進入 2025 年時，我們將在關閉時經歷真正的通貨膨脹。

These are lots that we're developing today that aren't that they're not going to be delivered in 2024.

這些是我們今天正在開發的產品，但並非不會在 2024 年交付。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And just remind us how much of the development costs are is on?

請提醒我們開發成本有多少？

Is that as a percentage of the total land cost typically?

這通常是佔土地總成本的百分比嗎？

Yes, it varies.

是的，它有所不同。

Yes, that varies tremendously by division and by land parcels.

是的，這因部門和地塊而異。

So the average like I have to I'd have to reference it, but I don't know that meaningful just because of the variances that we see across the business.

因此，像我必須的那樣，我必須參考它，但我不知道這是否有意義，因為我們在整個業務中看到了差異。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush Securities.

傑伊‧麥肯利斯，韋德布希證券公司。

Hey, good afternoon.

嘿，下午好。

So the first question I had maybe sticking on the lien topic for a second.

所以我的第一個問題可能是關於留置權話題。

You're looking at lots to 2026 and beyond, what are you seeing in terms of land cost inflation for those further-out lots?

您正在考慮 2026 年及以後的地塊，您認為這些更遠的地塊的土地成本通膨如何？

And from a competitive standpoint, we've heard from some of your competitors that the land market, especially this spring is more fierce than it is normally.

從競爭的角度來看，我們從你們的一些競爭對手那裡聽說，土地市場，尤其是今年春天，比平常更加激烈。

So maybe if you could talk about the inflation and what the competitive backdrop looks like?

那麼也許您可以談談通貨膨脹以及競爭背景是什麼樣的呢？

I would describe the land market as competitive on that.

我認為土地市場在這一點上具有競爭力。

There's no easy deal out there.

那裡沒有簡單的交易。

It's not just who are you competing with for the best price for the parcel is what's the complexity of the improvements and the development really to understand the parcel.

這不僅僅是您與誰競爭包裹的最佳價格，而是真正了解包裹的改進和開發的複雜性。

And if you haven't been land team, it's a strength.

如果你沒有參加過陸地團隊，這也是一種優勢。

You don't have a good land team.

你沒有一支優秀的地面團隊。

That's that can be a weakness.

這可能是一個弱點。

And so overall, while it's competitive, we are finding deals we've spent 60% more in Q1 on land development than we did a year ago.

因此，總體而言，儘管具有競爭力，但我們發現第一季在土地開發方面的交易比一年前增加了 60%。

So it tells you that we're finding deals and we've invested in both.

所以它告訴你我們正在尋找交易並且我們已經對兩者進行了投資。

I also said in my prepared remarks that we're sticking to our discipline on the underwriting, the location, the product type and the returns that we need to get.

我還在準備好的發言中表示，我們將在承保、地點、產品類型和我們需要獲得的回報方面遵守我們的紀律。

So Rob, I don't know if you have any other color you want to give on what you're seeing out there on land market.

所以，羅布，我不知道你是否想對你在土地市場上看到的東西給予任何其他顏色。

I'd just echo your comments I made, it is competitive and we are seeing land prices move up and it depends just based on the sub market based on the city.

我只是回應你的評論，它具有競爭力，我們看到土地價格上漲，這僅取決於基於城市的子市場。

It's hard to give a specific number as far as what lots of lot costs or land has inflated to the development.

很難給出具體的數字，到底有多少土地成本或土地導致了開發的膨脹。

There's a factor in that too, and it all goes to the residual that you can pay for the developed lot that it's definitely competitive.

這也有一個因素，這一切都取決於你可以為開發的地塊支付的剩餘費用，它絕對具有競爭力。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

And then, Jeff, Kay, last quarter you talked about how I think roughly 30% of production in the quarter were [spec] homes with a goal of being more like 25%.

然後，傑夫、凱，上個季度你們談到了我認為本季大約 30% 的產量是[規格]住宅，目標是大約 25%。

Could you talk about where specs are now and how we should think about that mix in terms of the gross margin guide for the second quarter and for the rest of the year?

您能否談談現在的規格以及我們應該如何根據第二季和今年剩餘時間的毛利率指南來考慮這種組合？

On the spec side, it's remained relatively stable when you see the nice thing that we're seeing now is with the can rate coming down.

在規格方面，當你看到我們現在看到的好事是罐頭率下降時，它保持相對穩定。

We're not having to resell a home after start that we had at a point in time, just a few years back.

我們不必在幾年前的某個時間點啟動後轉售房屋。

So that spec mix, I think, is going to remain fairly stable as we move through it.

因此，我認為，隨著我們的發展，規格組合將保持相當穩定。

When we just look at what we have in production, it's roughly where we've been delivering right around 30% of the total production right now of spec homes.

當我們看看我們正在生產的產品時，我們大約已經交付了目前規格住宅總產量的 30% 左右。

And yes, we I think that will remain pretty close to those levels.

是的，我認為這將非常接近這些水平。

That is the tricky part as you point out about forecasting gross margin, but it seems like a fairly stable number and in particular with a lower can rate where you're not having as many surprise spec homes is versus planned ones.

正如您所指出的，關於預測毛利率，這是一個棘手的部分，但這似乎是一個相當穩定的數字，特別是在罐頭率較低的情況下，與計劃的房屋相比，您沒有那麼多令人驚訝的規格房屋。

So we've seen a steady as she goes in that metric as we as we move forward here on this in your Margin.

因此，當我們在您的保證金中向前推進時，我們看到她在該指標上的穩定性。

And outside, Jeff just pointed out that the blend is in our margin guide.

在外面，傑夫只是指出混合在我們的利潤指南中。

We always blended.

我們總是混合在一起。

So as we look out at deliveries next quarter, we always have to make some estimate of what was shown close in the quarter.

因此，當我們關注下季度的交付量時，我們總是必須對本季末的交付量做出一些估計。

That's not coming out of backlog and we'll put estimates on.

這不是積壓的結果，我們將進行估計。

We know we can build costs, our estimate the price and then move forward.

我們知道我們可以建立成本，估算價格，然後繼續前進。

It's all embedded in the back in there margin guidance we put out there.

這一切都包含在我們發布的保證金指導的後面。

And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。