JELD-WEN Holding Inc (JELD) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the JEL-WEN Holding Inc fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to James Armstrong, Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 JEL-WEN Holding Inc 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁詹姆斯·阿姆斯特朗。你可以開始了。

Thank you and good morning. We issued our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings released last night and posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations portion of our website, which can be found at investors.jeld-wen.com. We will be referencing this presentation during our call. Today, I'm joined by Will Christensen, Chief Executive Officer, and Samantha Stoddard, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，早安。我們昨晚發布了 2024 年第四季度和全年收益，並在我們網站的投資者關係部分發布了幻燈片演示，可在 investors.jeld-wen.com 上找到。我們將在通話期間參考該簡報。今天，與我一起出席的還有執行長威爾克里斯滕森 (Will Christensen) 和財務長薩曼莎斯托達德 (Samantha Stoddard)。

Before I turn it over to Bill, I would like to remind everyone that during this call we will make certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our earnings release and provided in our Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. JELD-WEN does not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements, including the guidance we are providing with respect to certain expectations for future results.

在將發言權交給比爾之前，我想提醒大家，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出某些構成《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義前瞻性陳述的聲明。這些聲明受各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們的收益報告中所述以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格中提供的風險和不確定性。JELD-WEN 不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的任何義務，包括我們針對未來結果的某些預期提供的指導。

Additionally, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable financial measures calculated under GAAP can be found in our earnings release and in the appendix of our earnings presentation. With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Bill.

此外，在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論我們認為有助於評估我們績效的非公認會計準則指標。不應孤立地考慮這些附加資訊的呈現，也不應將其視為根據 GAAP 編制的結果的替代方案。這些非 GAAP 指標與根據 GAAP 計算的最直接可比較財務指標的對帳可以在我們的收益報告和收益報告附錄中找到。說完這些，我現在想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by recognizing the hard work and commitment of our team throughout what was a very challenging year. We have continued making meaningful progress on our transformation, strengthening our ability to navigate current conditions while positioning ourselves for long term success.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，大家早安。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊在這充滿挑戰的一年裡所付出的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我們在轉型過程中不斷取得有意義的進展，增強了我們應對當前局勢的能力，同時也為長期成功做好了準備。

I also want to extend my appreciation to our customers listening today. We value your partnership and remain committed to being a stronger, more reliable partner in the years ahead. Today, I'll begin by providing an overview of the quarter, after which Samantha will walk through our quarterly and full-year financial performance. I'll then return to discuss our outlook for both the market and our business.

我還要向今天聆聽講座的顧客表示感謝。我們重視您的合作關係，並將繼續致力於在未來幾年成為更強大、更可靠的合作夥伴。今天，我將首先概述本季的情況，然後薩曼莎將介紹我們的季度和全年財務表現。然後我將回來討論我們對市場和業務的展望。

Looking at our fourth quarter highlights on slide 4, the softer demand environment we anticipated last quarter materialized largely as expected, and our adjusted EBITDA results came in within our guidance range. As promised, we delivered approximately $115 million of transformation benefits in 2024, and we continue to take the necessary actions to align our costs with current market conditions while ensuring we are all well positioned for future growth.

回顧投影片 4 上的第四季亮點，我們上季度預期的需求環境較弱，基本上符合預期，調整後的 EBITDA 結果處於我們的指導範圍內。正如承諾的那樣，我們在 2024 年實現了約 1.15 億美元的轉型收益，並且我們將繼續採取必要措施，使我們的成本與當前的市場狀況保持一致，同時確保我們都為未來的成長做好準備。

In the fourth quarter, we faced continued pressure from weaker volume and mix across both North America and Europe. While our transformation initiatives provided some offset, they were not enough to fully counteract these headwinds. That said, we remain encouraged by the progress of our various initiatives which are in our control.

第四季度，我們繼續面臨北美和歐洲銷售和產品組合疲軟的壓力。儘管我們的轉型措施提供了一些補償，但還不足以完全抵銷這些不利因素。儘管如此，我們仍然對自己掌控的各項舉措的進展感到鼓舞。

These initiatives are helping us navigate the environment while strengthening our company for future performance. Although we're pleased with the progress of our transformation, market conditions remain challenging. We continue to see consumers trading down and delaying larger scale remodeling projects, which has impacted both our volume and mix.

這些措施有助於我們因應環境變化，同時增強公司未來的績效。儘管我們對轉型的進展感到滿意，但市場狀況仍充滿挑戰。我們持續看到消費者降低消費水準並推遲大規模改造項目，這對我們的銷售和產品組合都產生了影響。

Additionally, while housing starts have remained stable, the sharp decline in multi-family and higher-end home construction has significantly affected our VPI and LaCantina businesses. On a positive note, While the overall market is soft, our interior door business has remained relatively stable as we picked up share.

此外，雖然新屋開工量保持穩定，但多戶住宅和高端住宅建設量的急劇下降嚴重影響了我們的 VPI 和 LaCantina 業務。從積極的一面來看，雖然整體市場疲軟，但我們的室內門業務隨著市場份額的增加而保持相對穩定。

In response to the continued soft market conditions, we are implementing cost reduction initiatives to further improve efficiency and adapt to our ongoing market dynamics. For example, in January, we announced the idling of our Windows plant in Grinnell, Iowa, following the loss of a major Midwest customer stocking business. With that, I'll turn it over to Samantha to walk through our financial results in more detail.

為了應對持續疲軟的市場環境，我們正在實施降低成本的舉措，以進一步提高效率並適應不斷變化的市場動態。例如，今年 1 月，由於失去了中西部主要客戶的庫存業務，我們宣布位於愛荷華州格林內爾的 Windows 工廠將停產。接下來，我將把時間交給薩曼莎更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks Bill. Turning to slide 6, fourth quarter revenue was $896 million down 12% year over year. This decline is driven by lower core revenues reflecting the expected market-driven volume declines across North America and Europe, as well as a continued mix shift in North America from higher price to more affordable options as customers prioritize cost savings.

謝謝比爾。轉到投影片 6，第四季營收為 8.96 億美元，年減 12%。造成這一下降的原因是核心收入下降，反映了北美和歐洲預期的市場驅動銷售下降，以及由於客戶優先考慮節省成本，北美的產品組合繼續從高價轉向更實惠的選擇。

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $40 million, a $47 million decline from the prior year driven primarily by lower volume mix resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.5%. Free cash flow in the fourth quarter was a use of $28 million including $56 million in capital investments.

本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 4,000 萬美元，較上年下降 4,700 萬美元，主要原因是銷售組合下降導致調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 4.5%。第四季自由現金流為 2,800 萬美元，其中包括 5,600 萬美元的資本投資。

Given the impact of lower EBITDA and our continued investment in transformation initiatives, our net debt leverage ratio increased to 3.8 times, above our target range of 2 times to 2.5 times. As we look ahead to 2025 and beyond, one of my top priorities will be to return to our targeted leverage range through EBITDA improvements and appropriate capital allocation.

受EBITDA下降的影響以及我們對轉型計畫的持續投資，我們的淨債務槓桿率上升至3.8倍，高於我們的2倍至2.5倍的目標範圍。展望 2025 年及以後，我的首要任務之一是透過改善 EBITDA 和適當的資本配置恢復到我們的目標槓桿範圍。

As shown on slide 7, our fourth quarter revenue decline was primarily driven by a 12% decrease in volume and mix, with approximately half of the decline attributed to a shift from higher average selling price products to more affordable options. I'll provide additional insights into North America and Europe market trends shortly.

如投影片 7 所示，我們第四季營收下降主要是由於銷售和產品組合下降 12%，其中約一半的下降是由於從平均售價較高的產品轉向更實惠的選擇。我將很快提供有關北美和歐洲市場趨勢的更多見解。

As shown on slide 8, adjusted EBITDA declined by $47 million year over year, largely due to the sharp drop in volume and mix. As expected, cost pressures remained a headwind in the quarter, driven primarily by labor and material inflation in glass and other commodities, key factors contributing to negative price/cost dynamics. Additionally, lower volumes led to operational inefficiencies, limiting our ability to generate meaningful productivity gains.

如投影片 8 所示，調整後的 EBITDA 年減 4,700 萬美元，主要原因是銷售量和產品組合急劇下降。正如預期的那樣，成本壓力在本季度仍然是一個阻力，主要受到玻璃和其他商品的勞動力和材料通膨的影響，這是導致價格/成本動態不佳的關鍵因素。此外，產量下降導致營運效率低下，限制了我們實現有意義的生產力成長的能力。

Moving to our segment results on slide 9, our North America segment generated $640 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, a 14% decline year over year. This was driven by a 14% reduction in core revenues primarily due to lower volume and mix.

查看投影片 9 上的分部業績，我們的北美分部第四季創造了 6.4 億美元的收入，年減 14%。這是由於核心收入減少了 14%，主要是因為銷售量和產品組合減少。

The decline was more heavily weighted towards mix as consumers continued to shift toward more affordable products. Additionally, earlier in the year, we exited certain higher priced products with dilutive margins.

由於消費者持續轉向更實惠的產品，混合產品的下降更為嚴重。此外，今年早些時候，我們退出了某些價格較高且利潤率較低的產品。

North America's adjusted EBITDA declined to $42 million from $94 million in the prior year, reflecting the impact of lower volume and mix, as well as negative price/cost dynamics and productivity headwinds stemming from significantly lower volumes.

北美調整後的 EBITDA 從上年的 9,400 萬美元下降至 4,200 萬美元，反映了銷售和產品組合下降的影響，以及銷售量大幅下降導致的負面價格/成本動態和生產力阻力。

In Europe, revenue for the fourth quarter was $256 million with adjusted EBITDA of $17 million. Core revenues declined 6% year over year, driven by a 7% decrease in volume and mix, almost entirely attributable to volume. However, adjusted EBITDA improved by $1 million resulting in a margin of 6.5%. The impact of lower volumes and slightly negative price/cost was more than offset by strong productivity improvements.

在歐洲，第四季營收為 2.56 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1,700 萬美元。核心收入年減 6%，原因是銷售量和產品組合下降 7%，幾乎完全歸因於銷售量。然而，調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 100 萬美元，利潤率達到 6.5%。產量下降和價格/成本略為下降的影響被生產率的大幅提高所抵消。

Turning to slide 10, full-year revenue declined 12% year over year, reflecting the ongoing impact of lower volumes and mix throughout the year. In addition, late in the year, our sales were affected by the loss of a major Midwest retail customer's Windows stock business, as well as the strategic pruning of unprofitable business.

轉到投影片 10，全年營收年減 12％，反映了全年銷售和產品組合下降的持續影響。此外，今年年底，我們的銷售受到了中西部一家主要零售客戶 Windows 庫存業務的損失以及無利可圖業務的策略性削減的影響。

Adjusted EBITDA and margins were pressured by lower sales. With these impacts only partially offset by productivity gains from our transformation initiatives. For the year, we faced approximately $160 million in headwinds from lower volume and mix along with an additional $40 million decline from negative price/cost and productivity challenges stemming from sharp volume declines.

調整後的 EBITDA 和利潤率因銷售額下降而受到壓力。這些影響只能被我們轉型措施帶來的生產力提升部分抵銷。今年，我們面臨約 1.6 億美元的損失，這些損失來自銷售和產品組合的下降，此外，由於銷售量急劇下降導致價格/成本下降和生產力挑戰，我們還面臨 4,000 萬美元的損失。

However, our transformation efforts delivered meaningful results, allowing us to offset nearly half of these pressures in 2024. As a result, adjusted EBITDA declined 28% year over year, with margins contracting by 150 basis points.

然而，我們的轉型努力取得了有意義的成果，使我們能夠在 2024 年抵消近一半的壓力。因此，調整後的 EBITDA 年減 28%，利潤率下降 150 個基點。

I'll now hand it over to Bill to talk about the outlook into 2025.

現在我將把時間交給比爾來談談 2025 年的展望。

Thanks. With the financial results covered, I would now like to shift focus to the broad market environment and our expectations for 2025.

謝謝。介紹完財務業績後，我現在想將重點轉移到廣泛的市場環境和我們對 2025 年的預期。

Turning to slide 12. When we provided our initial market outlook last year, we were outside the consensus in anticipating a market decline. While we were directionally correct, the downturn was steeper than we had expected. This year, we see the potential for continued volatility in North America, with significant uncertainty around how conditions will unfold. Potential tariffs, persistently high interest rates, and the possibility of renewed inflation all contribute to this uncertainty.

翻到第 12 張投影片。當我們去年提出最初的市場展望時，我們並沒有預料到市場會下滑。雖然我們的方向是正確的，但下滑幅度比我們預期的還要大。今年，我們看到北美市場可能繼續動盪，情況將如何發展存在很大的不確定性。潛在的關稅、持續的高利率以及通貨膨脹再次出現的可能性都加劇了這種不確定性。

Additionally, affordability remains an issue as both unit costs and interest rates remain elevated. Finally, reports indicate that new home inventory is at a decade high level, and discretionary spending on home improvements remains subdued, especially on big ticket discretionary items. Therefore, we believe there is a meaningful risk of further market declines in North America.

此外，由於單位成本和利率仍然居高不下，負擔能力仍然是一個問題。最後，報告顯示，新房庫存處於十年來的最高水平，而房屋裝修方面的可自由支配支出仍然低迷，尤其是高價可自由支配的物品。因此，我們認為北美市場有進一步下滑的風險。

Specifically, we expect both new construction and repair and remodel demand for windows and doors to decline by low-to-mid single digits. We also anticipate continued double-digit declines in both multi-family and Canadian markets consistent with last year's trends.

具體來說，我們預計新建和維修改造對門窗的需求將下降低至中個位數。我們也預期多戶住宅市場和加拿大市場將持續出現兩位數的下滑，與去年的趨勢一致。

In Europe, we believe the market will continue to decline this year, albeit at a lower rate than North America. Given this backdrop, we expect European residential construction activity to decline moderately, while commercial projects are likely to be slightly down.

在歐洲，我們認為今年市場將持續下滑，儘管下滑速度低於北美。有鑑於此背景，我們預計歐洲住宅建築活動將適度下降，而商業項目可能會略有下降。

Given the challenging market outlook and as part of our ongoing transformation, we are taking further actions to strengthen our network. As shown on slide 13, we are launching a comprehensive program to optimize our North American network, ensuring it is aligned to both support and deliver on our long-term commercial strategy.

鑑於充滿挑戰的市場前景，作為我們正在轉型的一部分，我們正在採取進一步行動來加強我們的網絡。如投影片 13 所示，我們正在啟動一項綜合計劃來優化我們的北美網絡，確保它能夠支援並實現我們的長期商業策略。

Specifically, we'll be realigning our footprint to support future growth at both the regional and product levels, ensuring we have the capability to manufacture the right product with the right capacity in the right locations. At the same time, we are accelerating automation investments to drive further efficiency and enable additional facility consolidation.

具體來說，我們將重新調整我們的業務範圍，以支持區域和產品層面的未來成長，確保我們有能力在正確的地點以正確的產能生產正確的產品。同時，我們正在加快自動化投資，以進一步提高效率並實現更多設施整合。

Finally, to improve customer service levels, we are enhancing the planning and execution of all projects in this area to minimize service disruptions and maintain strong customer support levels. While much of this optimization work is already underway, we do not expect a significant financial impact from the program in 2025.

最後，為了提高客戶服務水平，我們正在加強該領域所有專案的規劃和執行，以最大限度地減少服務中斷並保持強大的客戶支援水平。雖然大部分優化工作已在進行中，但我們預計該計劃在 2025 年不會產生重大的財務影響。

However, as the consolidation progresses, we anticipate it could generate an additional $60 million or more in benefits on top of our ongoing transformation efforts once fully implemented. In addition to the mid-term optimization of our network, we are also implementing shorter term actions to reduce costs and align with current market conditions.

然而，隨著整合的進展，我們預計一旦全面實施，它將在我們正在進行的轉型努力的基礎上產生額外的 6000 萬美元或更多的收益。除了中期網路優化之外，我們還在實施短期行動以降低成本並適應當前的市場狀況。

As shown on slide 14, we have identified several near-term initiatives. First, we are right sizing our factories, that includes adjusting our salaried workforce. In several regions, demand has further declined while we continue to run multiple shifts. As we progress with our long-term network optimization, we are making near-term adjustments by reducing shifts and scaling back support staff to better align short-term costs with current and expected market realities.

如投影片 14 所示，我們已經確定了幾項近期措施。首先，我們正在調整工廠規模，包括調整我們的受薪勞動力。在我們繼續實行多班次生產的同時，一些地區的需求進一步下降。隨著我們長期網路優化的進展，我們正在透過減少輪班和縮減支援人員來進行短期調整，以使短期成本更好地與當前和預期的市場現實保持一致。

Additionally, with the evolving tariff landscape, we are proactively preparing for a higher tariff environment, particularly in North America. We are modeling options to optimize our supply chain, to reduce costs, prioritize regional sourcing, and in-market production wherever possible. The short-term initiatives are expected to have a meaningful impact on 2025 earnings.

此外，隨著關稅情勢的變化，我們正在積極為更高的關稅環境做準備，特別是在北美。我們正在製定方案來優化我們的供應鏈，降低成本，優先考慮區域採購，並盡可能進行市場生產。預計這些短期舉措將對 2025 年的收益產生重大影響。

When combined with our broader productivity efforts, they are projected to generate approximately $50 million in annual savings. These year-term adjustments will help stabilize our cost structure as we recognize that 2025 will likely bring additional volume challenges.

與我們更廣泛的生產力努力相結合，預計每年可節省約 5000 萬美元。這些年度調整將有助於穩定我們的成本結構，因為我們認識到 2025 年可能會帶來額外的數量挑戰。

Let's now turn to our guidance for the year. Turning to our guidance on slide 16, we anticipate continued softness in North America, compounded by the impact of share loss and the strategic business pruning last year. As a result, we expect net revenues to range between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion reflecting a projected 4% to 9% decline in core revenues.

現在讓我們來談談今年的指導。談到第 16 張投影片上的指導，我們預計北美市場將繼續疲軟，再加上去年份額損失和策略業務削減的影響。因此，我們預計淨收入將在 32 億美元至 34 億美元之間，核心收入預計將下降 4% 至 9%。

Up to 4% to 9% reduction in core revenues, which excludes the impact of Towanda, about half is a result of the roll forward of changes that happened last year, including the loss of the large Midwest retail business, while the other half is related to the anticipated additional market weakness. Lower volumes are expected to flow through to EBITDA at an approximate 30% decremental rate, partially offset by ongoing transformation initiatives.

核心收入減少高達 4% 至 9%，這不包括 Towanda 的影響，大約一半是由於去年發生的變化的延續，包括失去中西部大型零售業務，而另一半與預期的額外市場疲軟有關。預計銷售下降將以約 30% 的遞減率計入 EBITDA，但部分將被正在進行的轉型舉措所抵消。

Based on these factors, we now forecast an adjusted EBITDA range of $215 million to $265 million. Given our EBITDA expectations, we anticipate operating cash flow of approximately $15 million in 2025. In response to the low levels of operating cash flow, we are adjusting our capital expenditures to approximately $150 million considering our expected elevated leverage levels by year end.

基於這些因素，我們現在預測調整後的 EBITDA 範圍為 2.15 億美元至 2.65 億美元。根據我們的 EBITDA 預期，我們預計 2025 年的營運現金流量約為 1,500 萬美元。為了應對較低的營運現金流水平，考慮到預計年底槓桿率將上升，我們將資本支出調整至約 1.5 億美元。

This results in a projected use of free cash flow of approximately $135 million. While this CapEx guidance is lower than previously outlined, it remains well above historical levels, representing approximately 4.5% of sales. We remain committed to funding our transformation to position the business for long-term success. The cash impact will not be as severe as our free cash flow guidance might suggest.

預計自由現金流使用量約 1.35 億美元。雖然這項資本支出指引低於先前的預期，但仍遠高於歷史水平，約佔銷售額的 4.5%。我們將繼續致力於為我們的轉型提供資金，以確保業務的長期成功。現金影響不會像我們的自由現金流指導所暗示的那樣嚴重。

This year we received approximately $110 million in cash from the required divestiture of Towanda, which we will use to support our transformation efforts.

今年，我們從 Towanda 的必要資產剝離中獲得了約 1.1 億美元現金，我們將用這筆錢來支持我們的轉型工作。

However, with lower EBITDA, we still expect to end the year with leverage above 4 times, exceeding our target range, and we will be taking steps to address this. The first quarter of this year is shaping up to be particularly challenging as the market remains weak and we begin to experience the full impact of last year's share loss and required divestiture.

然而，由於 EBITDA 較低，我們仍預計今年年底的槓桿率將超過 4 倍，超出我們的目標範圍，我們將採取措施解決這個問題。由於市場仍然疲軟，我們開始感受到去年份額損失和所需資產剝離的全面影響，因此今年第一季將尤其具有挑戰性。

To maintain transparency and support your modeling, we currently expect the Q1 sales range between $750 and $775 million with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $20 million. That said, we anticipate an improvement in Q2 and throughout the remainder of the year, driven by normal seasonality and the ongoing benefits of our transformation and cost management efforts. As a result, we do not expect these exceptionally low levels to persist.

為了保持透明度並支持您的模型，我們目前預計第一季的銷售額將在 7.5 億美元至 7.75 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 2000 萬美元。儘管如此，我們預計第二季及今年剩餘時間的情況將有所改善，這得益於正常的季節性因素以及我們轉型和成本管理工作的持續效益。因此，我們預計這些異常低的水平不會持續下去。

On slide 17, we provide a detailed breakdown of the key factors driving our EBITDA guidance midpoint to support your modeling. As shown, the impact of the Towanda divestiture combined with volume declines and the reversal of one-time benefits is only partially offset by the significant improvements we are achieving through targeted near-term actions and our broader transformation initiatives.

在第 17 張投影片上，我們提供了推動 EBITDA 指導中點的關鍵因素的詳細分類，以支援您的建模。如圖所示，托旺達資產剝離、銷售下降和一次性收益逆轉帶來的影響，只能被我們透過有針對性的短期行動和更廣泛的轉型舉措所取得的重大改進部分抵消。

As we enter the third year of our transformation, we remain focused on driving meaningful progress based on the things we can control. As shown on slide 18, we expect to deliver another $100 million in annualized adjusted EBITDA improvements this year.

進入轉型的第三年，我們將繼續致力於在我們能夠控制的事情上推動有意義的進步。如投影片 18 所示，我們預計今年的年度調整後 EBITDA 將再成長 1 億美元。

While there is still significant work and opportunity ahead to strengthen the foundation of our business, the results so far demonstrate that our efforts are making a tangible impact in a challenging market environment.

儘管我們仍有許多工作要做、還有很多機會來鞏固業務基礎，但迄今為止的結果表明，我們的努力在充滿挑戰的市場環境中產生了切實的影響。

Turning to slide 19, we expect the majority of the year over year variants to come from our North American segment, while we anticipate some early signs of stabilization in Europe. In North America, lower volumes are expected to have the greatest impact, driven by a weaker market that required to want to divestiture, strategic business pruning and share losses from 2024.

轉到幻燈片 19，我們預計大多數同比變化將來自北美市場，同時我們預計歐洲將出現一些早期穩定跡象。在北美，預計銷售下降將產生最大影響，原因是市場疲軟，需要剝離資產、策略性業務精簡以及從 2024 年開始的份額損失。

While we anticipate strong productivity gains in the region, they are unlikely to fully offset the impact of declining volumes. Price/cost is expected to be flat in the year.

雖然我們預計該地區的生產力將大幅提高，但這不太可能完全抵消產量下降的影響。預計今年的價格/成本將保持穩定。

Conversely, while European sales volumes may present a headwind, we expect these pressures to be more than offset by the productivity improvements generated through our transformation initiatives. Although we do not anticipate a significant year-over-year increase in EBITDA, we do expect both absolute EBITDA levels and margins to improve modestly in 2025 compared to 2024.

相反，儘管歐洲的銷售量可能帶來阻力，但我們預計這些壓力將被我們透過轉型措施產生的生產力提高所抵消。儘管我們預計 EBITDA 不會出現同比大幅增長，但我們預計 2025 年的絕對 EBITDA 水準和利潤率都將較 2024 年略有提高。

As in North America, we anticipate price/cost will be roughly neutral in 2025. Finally, corporate expenses are expected to be higher this year as certain one-time benefits do not repeat and we reinstate variable incentives across the company. While the exact impact remains difficult to predict, we currently expect corporate expenses to land between 2023 and 2024 levels.

與北美一樣，我們預計 2025 年價格/成本將大致保持中性。最後，由於某些一次性福利不會重複，而且我們在整個公司範圍內恢復了可變激勵措施，因此預計今年的公司支出將會更高。雖然確切的影響仍然難以預測，但我們目前預計企業支出將達到 2023 年至 2024 年的水準。

As we look to the next phase of our strategy, one that positions JELD-WEN for long term success despite continued near term headwinds. 2025 will be a pivotal year for JELD-WEN. Over the past two years, we have successfully reduced annual run rate costs by more than $200 million, yet persistent market weakness has offset these improvements. As a result, we are now shifting to the next phase of our transformation.

當我們展望下一階段的策略時，儘管短期內仍面臨阻力，但 JELD-WEN 仍將長期成功。 2025年對JELD-WEN來說將是關鍵的一年。在過去兩年中，我們成功地將年度運行成本降低了 2 億多美元，但持續的市場疲軟抵消了這些改進。因此，我們現在正進入轉型的下一階段。

Turning to slide 20, our focus in 2025 centers on three key priorities. First, re-establishing strong partnerships with our customers. Our service levels have not consistently met our customers' expectations, and we are taking steps to improve both service and quality across the company.

翻到第 20 張投影片，我們 2025 年的重點集中在三個關鍵優先事項。首先，與客戶重新建立牢固的合作關係。我們的服務水準未能始終滿足客戶的期望，我們正在採取措施改善整個公司的服務和品質。

By focusing our organization on safety, quality, and delivery metrics and linking variable compensation to these metrics, we aim to deliver what customers expect, the right product, at the right quality on time, and in full. As we continue to execute on these improvements, we fully expect to regain market share that has been lost in recent years.

透過讓我們的組織專注於安全、品質和交付指標，並將浮動薪酬與這些指標掛鉤，我們的目標是按時、完整地提供客戶期望的正確產品、正確的品質。隨著我們繼續實施這些改進，我們完全有望重新獲得近年來失去的市場份額。

Second, optimizing our network. As we discussed earlier, we still have too many facilities operating below optimal levels. We are taking a disciplined approach to realign our long-term footprint, ensuring we maintain the right capacity while minimizing customer disruptions and enhancing service levels.

第二，優化網路。正如我們之前所討論的，我們仍然有太多設施的運作水平低於最佳水平。我們正在採取嚴謹的方法來重新調整我們的長期足跡，確保我們保持適當的容量，同時最大限度地減少客戶中斷並提高服務水準。

Finally, continuing to invest in cost and efficiency gains. Underinvestment over the past decade has left us with a fragmented network and many manual processes. We will accelerate automation and select manufacturing operations as we still have significant opportunities to improve efficiency and reduce costs across our network.

最後，繼續投資於成本和效率的提高。過去十年的投資不足導致我們的網路支離破碎，且需要大量手動流程。我們將加速自動化並選擇製造業務，因為我們仍然有很大機會提高整個網路的效率並降低成本。

We expect 2025 to remain challenging with continued market-related headwinds. However, we are taking the necessary actions on items that we control to navigate near-term pressures while positioning JELD-WEN for long term success.

我們預計 2025 年仍將面臨挑戰，市場相關阻力將持續存在。然而，我們正在對我們控制的專案採取必要的行動，以應對短期壓力，同時為 JELD-WEN 的長期成功做好準備。

I am incredibly proud of our team's hard work to deliver long term value. We continue to invest in the right systems, processes, and people to deliver the long-term value.

我為我們團隊為實現長期價值所付出的努力感到無比自豪。我們將繼續投資正確的系統、流程和人員，以實現長期價值。

Thank you for your continued interest, and with that, I'll now turn it over to James for the Q&A.

感謝您一直以來的關注，現在我將把問答環節交給詹姆斯。

Thanks Bill. Operator, we're now ready to begin the Q&A.

謝謝比爾。接線員，我們現在可以開始問答了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Philip Ng, Jefferies

Philip Ng，傑富瑞

Hey guys. I appreciate all the great color in terms of how you're tackling some of these dynamics, but I guess my first question was really around the step up in your earnings progression even from 1Q to 2Q implicitly goes from $20 million to $64 million and certainly first half versus back half pretty noticeable pick up there. So I think number one, it'd be helpful to kind of give us a little more color on how, that progresses, whether it's the $100 million transformation or the $50 million headwind mitigation? How does that get layered in? And then I guess in a more normal demand environment do some of these savings in the short-term kind of reverse as well? Help us think through progression be really helpful.

嘿，大家好。我很欣賞您在處理這些動態問題方面所展現出的出色能力，但我想我的第一個問題實際上是關於您的盈利增長，即使從第一季度到第二季度，盈利也隱含地從 2000 萬美元增加到了 6400 萬美元，而且上半年與下半年相比，盈利增長相當明顯。因此我認為，首先，最好能給我們多一點關於進展情況的信息，無論是 1 億美元的轉型還是 5,000 萬美元的逆風緩解？它是如何分層的？那麼我想，在更正常的需求環境下，這些短期節省是否也會出現逆轉？幫助我們思考進展確實很有幫助。

Thanks, Phil. This is Samantha. So to think about the progression as we talked about, we're going to be taking both some near-term actions, about $150 million this year, as well as the transformation. Many of those actions will begin to take effect in Q2.

謝謝，菲爾。這是薩曼莎。因此，考慮到我們談到的進展，我們將採取一些近期行動，今年約 1.5 億美元，以及轉型。其中許多措施將在第二季開始生效。

So, we have to adapt to the ongoing market dynamics by optimizing our factories, our support staff, and our SG&A and most of that takes effect beginning in the beginning of Q2.

因此，我們必須透過優化我們的工廠、支援人員和銷售、一般及行政費用來適應不斷變化的市場動態，其中大部分將在第二季初生效。

Are you assuming any ramp up in demand in terms of first half versus back or pretty steady throughout the year?

您是否認為上半年的需求會增加，或是全年的需求會保持穩定？

So there's going to be the normal seasonality that we expect beginning in Q2. So combined with the actions we're taking, that's kind of the lift up that you see. So we do expect more of a normal seasonality beginning in Q2 and Q3.

因此，我們預計從第二季開始將出現正常的季節性。因此，結合我們正在採取的行動，這就是您所看到的提升。因此，我們確實預計從第二季和第三季開始會出現更正常的季節性。

Okay, and then from a price/cost standpoint you're calling for a pretty neutral price/cost this year. So I guess first on the price part, have you taken any pricing actions and how your competitors reacting? And then certainly the unknown out there is around tariffs. The China tariffs feel pretty firm. There's metal and aluminum tariffs, and then there's talks of potentially China and Canada. I'm particularly interested on the Canadian front just given the amount of lumber this country imports. How are you thinking about all those things and what's baked into your full-year guide as well?

好的，那麼從價格/成本的角度來看，您認為今年的價格/成本是相當中性的。所以我想先關於價格部分，您是否採取了任何定價行動以及您的競爭對手如何反應？當然，還有一個未知因素就是關稅。中國的關稅似乎相當堅定。有關金屬和鋁關稅，然後還有可能與中國和加拿大的談判。鑑於加拿大進口的木材數量，我對加拿大特別感興趣。您如何看待所有這些事情？您的全年指南又包含哪些內容？

Hey, it's Bill. Morning, Phil. So yes, it is a complicated picture. Currently, if you're trying to run a global supply chain, let me try and work through these one at a time based on the questions you asked. So yes, we are taking price. We expect currently, given our visibility to the supply chain, around $50 million in headwind on the cost side.

嘿，我是比爾。早上好，菲爾。是的，這是一個複雜的情況。目前，如果您嘗試運營全球供應鏈，請允許我根據您提出的問題嘗試逐一解決這些問題。是的，我們正在收取價格。目前，鑑於我們對供應鏈的了解，我們預計成本方面的阻力約為 5,000 萬美元。

Secondly, if we look at metals coming in from China, very little exposure. Yes, there is some lumber. I would say global exposure to lumber, and right now we're running through different scenarios and modeling implications. We feel fairly well set up given our current production network, which is fully domestic, both Canada and US. But we're waiting to see if there's some cross-border tariffs, and it would be Canada, US that could potentially have an impact, but we are running scenarios. Haven't baked anything in addition into the guidance that you currently have in front of you.

其次，如果我們看一下來自中國的金屬，就會發現風險很小。是的，有一些木材。我想說的是全球對木材的接觸，現在我們正在研究不同的情境和建模意義。考慮到我們目前的生產網絡完全在加拿大和美國國內，我們感覺準備得相當充分。但我們正在等著看是否會有一些跨境關稅，加拿大、美國可能會產生影響，但我們正在運行各種情景。您目前所掌握的指導中並未添加任何內容。

Okay. So the $50 million does not account for any of the $50 million cost when you called out the bill, does not account for any tariffs, whether it's China or Canada at this point?

好的。所以，當您喊出帳單時，這 5000 萬美元並不包括任何 5000 萬美元的成本，也不包括任何關稅，無論是中國還是加拿大？

Right. No, that would be over and above, but there are obviously factor cost headwinds, and that's why we have selectively taken price in the market.

正確的。不，那會超出範圍，但顯然存在要素成本阻力，這就是我們有選擇地在市場上定價的原因。

Okay, thank you, appreciate the call.

好的，謝謝，謝謝您的來電。

Yeah, you're welcome.

是的，別客氣。

John Lovallo, UBS

瑞銀集團（UBS）約翰·洛瓦洛

Hey, good morning, guys. This is actually Spencer Kaufman on for John for the question.

嘿，大家早安。這實際上是斯賓塞·考夫曼 (Spencer Kaufman) 代替約翰 (John) 回答的問題。

Hey, good morning. It was just the first one. Can you just talk a little bit about your line of sight into, really just how confident you are in achieving the $50 million of the mitigation savings, $100 million transformation savings in this year, just given your market view here? And I guess on top of that is the right way to think about it that, the transformation you'd be doing anyways and the $50 million is just like, how you would approach, a more challenging market environment?

嘿，早安。這只是第一個。您能否簡單談談您的觀點？根據您對市場的了解，您對今年實現 5,000 萬美元的緩解成本節省和 1 億美元的轉型成本節省有多大信心？我想，最重要的是，正確的思考方式是，無論如何，您都會進行轉型，而 5000 萬美元就像是，您將如何應對更具挑戰性的市場環境？

Yes, so I think your last statement is fairly clear and spot on. On our transformation, this is our ongoing business to really improve the foundation and strengthen the future for JELD-WEN. So we have, I'd say we have active projects that are already in flight 80%, 85% of the $100 million. They're already running. So we have pretty good conviction on being able to deliver that, and I think our historical track record would suggest we're able to do what we say in this regard.

是的，所以我認為你的最後一句話相當清楚且正確。在我們的轉型中，這是我們正在進行的業務，旨在真正改善 JELD-WEN 的基礎並加強其未來。所以我想說，我們現有的活躍項目已經佔了 1 億美元資金的 80% 到 85%。他們已經在跑了。因此，我們非常有信心能夠實現這一目標，而且我認為我們的歷史記錄表明我們能夠做到這一點。

The additional $50 million, that is reacting to what we think will be another demand challenged environment. And so we have to adapt our cost structure accordingly and make sure we're ready. Yes, we'd love the market to be turning up, but right now we don't see any signals from any of our competitors, customers, or market research that would suggest a turn. So we're getting ready for a challenging year and making sure we're doing what we can control and doing that effectively.

額外的 5000 萬美元是為了應對我們認為的另一個需求挑戰環境。因此，我們必須相應地調整我們的成本結構並確保我們做好準備。是的，我們希望市場能夠好轉，但目前我們沒有從任何競爭對手、客戶或市場研究中找到任何跡象表明市場將出現好轉。因此，我們正為充滿挑戰的一年做好準備，並確保我們做我們能夠控制的事情，並有效地做到這一點。

Okay, that makes sense. In your slides, you mentioned that NIX is expected to remain, at the entry level price point. How should we think about that in the context of your 2025 revenue bill? Does NIX expected to continue to be a year for year headwind, or are we sort of lapping all that now? It should be somewhat neutralized.

好的，這很有道理。在您的幻燈片中，您提到 NIX 預計將保持在入門價格水準。我們應該如何結合 2025 年收入法案來思考這個問題？NIX 是否預計會繼續成為年復一年的逆風，還是我們現在正在經歷這一切？它應該被某種程度上中和了。

Yeah, I think it's probably baked in and it's kind of a run rate that's rolling forward. If you just think about that dynamic of the market, we still expect a soft market. As we've said, downward amid single digits both on new and retail R&R. With that situation, the large builders obviously are going to continue to sell out. Inventories are building there, but it's lower end volume and product, which has a detrimental mix to our business. But we feel that's fairly baked in now and probably continue for the near term.

是的，我認為它可能已經融入其中，並且是一種不斷向前發展的運行率。如果你只考慮市場的動態，我們仍然預期市場將會疲軟。正如我們所說，新零售 R&R 均呈現個位數下降趨勢。在這種情況下，大型建築商顯然會繼續出售。那裡的庫存正在增加，但數量和產品都較低，這對我們的業務不利。但我們認為，這種情況現在已經相當成熟，並且可能在短期內持續下去。

Okay. Thanks. guys.

好的。謝謝。夥計們。

Yeah, thanks, Spencer.

是的，謝謝，史賓塞。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝。大家早安。

Hey, Susan (multiple speakers).

嘿，蘇珊（多位發言者）

Good morning. My first question is, can you talk a bit about organic efforts to regain share, especially given the environment that we're in? Any progress that you're seeing there or projects that we should be looking for as we move through this year?

早安.我的第一個問題是，您能否談談重新獲得份額的有機努力，特別是考慮到我們所處的環境？您看到有什麼進展嗎？或者我們今年應該關注哪些項目？

Yeah, so there's a couple of things that we're doing on the growth side, Susan. Clearly this is a challenging demand environment, but there are always growth opportunities for us, both on doors and in windows. So there's two buckets that we're focused on. Number one is being more effective on the sales side. So we set up a pretty strenuous pipeline review processes in both our doors and windows. Organizations have weekly standups. We're building project pipeline and we're creating conversion models that will allow us to better predict where we think we're going to end the year. We're not ready to disclose detail around that, but I'm very pleased with the pipeline progression.

是的，蘇珊，我們在成長方面做了一些事情。顯然，這是一個充滿挑戰的需求環境，但無論是在門窗領域，我們始終存在著成長機會。因此，我們將重點放在兩個方面。第一是提高銷售方面的效率。因此，我們在門窗方面設立了相當嚴格的管道審查流程。組織每週都會舉行站立會議。我們正在建立專案管道並創建轉換模型，以便我們更好地預測今年的結束時間。我們還沒有準備好透露有關細節，但我對管道進展感到非常滿意。

So that would be the organic piece. Second would be, really driving service improvements. Clearly there are certain areas where we have to improve from a service level. I'm talking about quality and delivery because there are some pockets in this market that are still going, and demand is strong, such as the interior doors in the southeast market.

所以這將是有機部分。第二是真正推動服務改進。顯然，我們必須在服務水準上改進某些方面。我談論品質和交付是因為這個市場中仍有一些領域在發展，而且需求強勁，例如東南市場的室內門。

Unfortunately, there were many hurricanes last year, and that's really pushed a demand from some of our key partners in the region. So we need to make sure we can fulfill that effectively. So quality, delivery, and organic pipeline growth in the sales organization are the three levers that we're working on and feel pretty confident that we're going to be able to gain back some of the share that we elected to step away from last year just based on profit pool weakness or the Midwest retailer that elected to go offshore.

不幸的是，去年發生了多起颶風，這確實增加了我們在該地區一些主要合作夥伴的需求。因此我們需要確保能夠有效地實現這一目標。因此，銷售組織中的品質、交付和有機管道成長是我們正在努力的三個槓桿，我們非常有信心，我們將能夠收回去年我們選擇放棄的部分份額，這些份額僅僅是基於利潤池疲軟或選擇海外發展的中西部零售商。

Okay. That's helpful color. And then maybe just turning back to the full-year guide and thinking about the first half versus the second half, any thoughts, JELD-WEN or how we -- Samantha, how we should be thinking about the exit rate on that EBITDA margin for this year as some of these initiatives do start to come through and gain momentum?

好的。這是很有幫助的顏色。然後也許只是回顧全年指南並思考上半年與下半年，有什麼想法，JELD-WEN 或者我們 - Samantha，我們應該如何考慮今年 EBITDA 利潤率的退出率，因為其中一些舉措確實開始實現並獲得動力？

Yeah, towards the end of the year they're gaining momentum, you are going to have kind of the tail end in Q4 when you think about the drop off from a seasonality impact. But I would say it's a good practice to think about our margin rate exit around 9% -- 8% to 9% at the end of the year.

是的，接近年底，他們的發展勢頭正在增強，當你考慮到季節性影響導致的下降時，你會發現第四季已經進入尾聲。但我想說，考慮年底的保證金退出率在 9% 左右（8% 到 9%）是一個好的做法。

Okay, alright. That's very helpful color. Thank you, both. Good luck with everything.

好的，好的。這是非常有用的顏色。謝謝你們兩位。祝一切順利。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬修·布萊（Matthew Bouley）。

Good morning. You have [Niki Delaia] on for Matt today. Thanks for taking my questions. First off, I, hi, good morning. Within your $150 million CapEx guide for the full year, I'm wondering if you can give more detail on what this is being allocated to? Is it more on the productivity side or it's the growth or is it maintenance? Any details on that would be helpful. Thanks.

早安.今天有 [Niki Delaia] 代替 Matt。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我，你好，早安。在您全年 1.5 億美元資本支出指南中，我想知道您是否可以提供更多有關這筆資金分配用途的詳細資訊？它更多的是生產力方面、成長方面還是維護方面？任何有關此的詳細資訊都會有幫助。謝謝。

Sure. So it's, I would say it's balanced right now between network optimization and improving automation in our facilities and with some portion also being towards our growth. So you think about our special order project that we announced on the previous earnings call, there's a lot of work going into that around the -- updating of displays, making sure that we have the right systems in place to facilitate better special order process in our retail partners stores. When you think about the overall $150 million, you got to think a little less than $100 million is tied to maintaining the asset base for our overall network. So the $50 million of, let's call it, incremental to that is really the transformational CapEx around network optimization, automation, and then some growth initiatives.

當然。因此，我想說，目前我們在網路優化和提高設施自動化程度之間取得了平衡，其中一部分也是為了我們的成長。所以你想想我們在上次財報電話會議上宣布的特殊訂單項目，圍繞更新展示有很多工作要做，確保我們擁有正確的系統來促進我們的零售合作夥伴商店更好地進行特殊訂單流程。當你考慮總計 1.5 億美元時，你必須想到其中略少於 1 億美元與維護我們整個網路的資產基礎有關。因此，我們稱之為增量的 5000 萬美元實際上是圍繞網路優化、自動化以及一些成長計劃的轉型資本支出。

Awesome. That's super helpful. And then I guess secondly on Europe, the volume of mix remains under pressure. Have you guys seen any pockets of strength in this region, specifically in commercial? I know is guided on slightly. And then can we assume any recovery as we move through 2025, or how do you expect the volume cadence to trend there? Thanks.

驚人的。這非常有幫助。其次，我想對歐洲來說，混合量仍然面臨壓力。你們是否看到過該地區有任何優勢，特別是在商業領域？我知道是引導一下咯。那麼，我們是否可以預期到 2025 年會出現任何復甦，或者您預計那裡的銷售節奏將如何變化？謝謝。

Yeah, you're welcome. So Europe is definitely looking better but still challenged. So there's definitely pockets in different countries of recovery. Again, just to remind you, the build cycle for a European unit is probably 9 to 12 months before our product goes in versus 6 to 9 in the US. So as the starts pick up, we won't expect a major take until 9 to 12 months later. So our expectation now, and we've communicated this before, is we expect recovery in 2026, not before.

是的，別客氣。因此，歐洲的情況肯定有所好轉，但仍面臨挑戰。因此，不同國家肯定存在一些復甦的跡象。再次提醒您，在我們的產品投入生產之前，歐洲單位的建造週期大概是 9 到 12 個月，而美國單位的建造週期為 6 到 9 個月。因此，隨著開工率的回升，我們預計要到 9 到 12 個月後才會大幅成長。因此，我們現在的預期是，而且我們之前也表達過這一點，我們預計復甦將在 2026 年，而不是更早。

Interest rates are coming down, which will definitely help, and we're also seeing some competitors in specific markets that are in financial distress, so we're able to pick up some additional volumes. And this has been a story that's been going on probably for a couple of years now. And then on the commercial side, to answer your question on projects, we do see project pipeline starting to pick back up, but obviously that also has a pretty long gestation period based on the size and the scope of the of the project. So that's like 12 months out. So it's a 2026 story and we are controlling what we can't control in 2025.

利率正在下降，這肯定會有所幫助，而且我們也看到特定市場中的一些競爭對手陷入了財務困境，因此我們能夠獲得一些額外的交易量。這個故事可能已經持續了好幾年了。然後在商業方面，回答您關於專案的問題，我們確實看到專案管道開始回升，但顯然根據專案的規模和範圍，這也有相當長的醞釀期。這就相當於 12 個月後。所以這是一個 2026 年的故事，我們正在控制 2025 年無法控制的事情。

Awesome. Thank you and good luck.

驚人的。謝謝，祝你好運。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Michael Dahl, RBC Capital.

麥可‧達爾（Michael Dahl），加拿大皇家銀行資本管理公司（RBC Capital）。

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. First one just to go back to Phil's questions on tariffs. $50 million is not in significant amount if that's not inclusive of Canada. So can you just help us understand if that's the incremental cost? What specifically is it related to in terms of the spend that you're bringing in?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。首先回到菲爾關於關稅的問題。如果不包括加拿大的話，5000萬美元並不是一個很大的數字。那麼您能否幫助我們了解這是否是增量成本？就您帶來的支出而言，它具體與什麼相關？

Yes, so the $50 million -- hey Mike, good morning. So the $50 million is that's not tariff related. That's just inflation costs on our sourcing stack. So there's, I mean, there's freight, there's labor inflation, there's material inflation. Those are the big buckets that fill the $50 million. So it's separate and distinct to potential tariff headwinds which are currently not baked into that number and our expectation is that we're going to be price/cost neutral on that in the market for 2025.

是的，5000 萬美元——嘿，麥克，早安。因此，這 5000 萬美元與關稅無關。這只是我們採購堆疊的通膨成本。所以，我的意思是，有運費、勞力通膨、材料通膨。這些都是裝滿 5,000 萬美元的大桶。因此，它與目前尚未計入該數字的潛在關稅阻力是不同的，我們預計到 2025 年，市場價格/成本將保持中性。

Okay. That's a very helpful clarification. Thanks for that. This is my second question is kind of related. I mean, if we look at kind of the bridges and it's always helpful how you draw the waterfalls. In 2024, you had $200 million of EBITDA headwinds you offset, $95 million of that, give or take $90 million to $95 million. In this bridge, you kind of inclusive of Towanda, you have another $200 million I guess exclusive of Towanda for like $150 million -- exclusive of Towanda and you're effectively assuming all of that is offset and then you still have kind of these price/cost issues which I appreciate you're assuming neutral, but that's still stuff that you need to do to get it there.

好的。這是一個非常有用的澄清。謝謝。這是我的第二個問題，有點相關。我的意思是，如果我們觀察橋樑，繪製瀑布的方式總是有幫助的。2024 年，您抵銷了 2 億美元的 EBITDA 不利因素，其中 9,500 萬美元，上下浮動在 9,000 萬到 9,500 萬美元之間。在這座橋上，你把托旺達包括在內，你還有另外 2 億美元，我猜不包括托旺達的話，大約有 1.5 億美元 - 不包括托旺達，你實際上假設所有這些都被抵消了，然後你仍然有這些價格/成本問題，我很欣賞你假設中性，但這仍然是你需要做的事情才能實現它。

So just I guess, the question is going back to level of conviction. It seems like a lot to offset to get to kind of a flattish EBITDA number. So help us with that walk a little and maybe as part of that also the corporate side that's a very wide range on corporate costs, so maybe a little more detail on what's happening there.

所以我想，問題又回到了信念的層面。似乎需要抵消許多因素才能獲得較為平穩的 EBITDA 數字。因此，請幫助我們走一步，也許作為其中的一部分，也包括企業方面，因為企業成本的範圍非常廣泛，所以也許可以更詳細地了解那裡發生的事情。

Okay, let me try and hit it at a high level and then maybe Samantha can give some additional color if some buckets are unclear. So I think you've kind of framed it correctly. The Towanda divestment again just so it's clear that was court ordered. And we did divest based on an order from the court, and that has cost us expected $175 million revenue and $35 million in EBITDA. So that is one bucket clearly of headwind. The second bucket of headwind, as we've shown on the waterfall is market and the market is bucketed into a couple areas. Number one, volume mix headwind, and number two, pruning and share loss, things that are kind of rolling forward, the Midwest retail loss, some of the pruning that we've done in our portfolio, what we didn't like from a profit pool standpoint last year.

好的，讓我嘗試從高層次來解釋這個問題，然後如果有些桶子不清楚的話，薩曼莎也許可以提供一些額外的顏色。所以我認為你的表達是相當正確的。托旺達再次撤資，顯然這是法院命令。我們確實根據法院的命令進行了撤資，這導致我們損失了預計 1.75 億美元的收入和 3500 萬美元的 EBITDA。因此，這顯然是一股逆風。正如我們在瀑布圖上所展示的，第二大逆風是市場，市場分為幾個區域。第一，交易量組合逆風，第二，修剪和份額損失，這些事情正在向前推進，中西部零售損失，我們在投資組合中進行的一些修剪，從利潤池的角度來看，去年我們不喜歡這些事情。

And that's a pretty big number. So based on our expectation on where we see the headwinds this year, we feel that the $100 million in transformation that we're driving to and we've committed to is not going to be enough to counteract this. So we need to do more. So we're going to take some tough actions on the structural costs to make sure we're ready for the rebound, and we still feel that this is a great story when the volume comes back and we've cleaned up our cost structure and our manufacturing footprints. That's still what we're working on this year. Maybe there's some additional details that Samantha can give to help you better understand the buckets and how we're looking at balancing this.

這是一個相當大的數字。因此，根據我們對今年逆風的預期，我們認為我們正在推動並承諾的 1 億美元轉型不足以抵消這一影響。因此我們需要做更多。因此，我們將對結構性成本採取一些強硬措施，以確保我們為反彈做好準備，並且我們仍然認為，當產量回升並且我們清理了成本結構和製造足跡時，這是一個偉大的故事。這仍然是我們今年正在努力的方向。也許 Samantha 可以提供一些額外的細節來幫助您更好地理解這些桶子以及我們如何平衡它們。

So from a corporate cost-to-market conditions that will continue into 2025. There is going to be about $15 million to $20 million of headwind simply because of a variable comp issue year over year that will be reinstated in 2025. So when you factor it all in, think about modeling this year being $15 million to 20 million higher than 2024 net of all the puts and takes.

因此，從企業成本與市場狀況來看，這種情況將持續到 2025 年。僅由於每年變動薪酬問題，就會出現約 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的不利因素，而這一問題將在 2025 年再次出現。因此，當你把所有因素都考慮進去時，想想今年的模型扣除所有的投入和收入後將比 2024 年高出 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。

Got it. Okay, thank you.

知道了。好的，謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Keith Hughes, Truist Securities.

基斯·休斯（Keith Hughes），Truist Securities。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're talking about price costs flat with $50 million of traditional inflation headwind. There's so much mixed pressure in your industry. What areas do you think you can get price? It just seems like this would just get mixed down whatever you raise prices on. Where are you going to get that?

你說的是價格成本與 5000 萬美元的傳統通膨逆風持平。你們的行業中存在著太多複雜的壓力。您認為哪些領域可以獲得價格？看起來，無論你提高什麼價格，這都會變得混亂。你要去哪裡得到它？

Yeah, well, good morning, Keith.

是的，早上好，基斯。

I do believe that as we said before, the mix down that was occurring last year, we feel we're kind of at a run rate that's predictable on the mix. So we don't think there's going to be a significant amount of changes on the mix when we look at kind of our stack for expectations on volume around the builder side, on the new construction, and then on the retail and on our side. So this is, just us working extremely hard with our partners to make sure that we're doing what we can to control our costs, but you know if there is inflation and there still is inflation in the system, then we need to pass it through.

我確實相信，正如我們之前所說的那樣，對於去年發生的混合下降，我們感覺我們的運行率是可以預測的。因此，當我們從建築商、新建築、零售和我們這邊的銷售預期來看時，我們認為組合不會發生重大變化。因此，我們只是與合作夥伴一起努力，確保盡我們所能控製成本，但你知道，如果存在通貨膨脹，而且系統中仍然存在通貨膨脹，那麼我們就需要將其轉嫁出去。

And Keith, the other thing to think about is some of this has already like the price has already been in the market. This is in there from last year. So some of this is carry over impact that you're feeling in 2025. But this is already in the market.

基思，另一個需要考慮的事情是，其中一些價格已經在市場上了。這是去年的。因此，其中一些是您在 2025 年感受到的延續影響。但這已經存在於市場上了。

Okay. And the big customer loss in the Midwest, when will you anniversary that and can you give us any idea what kind of revenue loss over 12 months that is?

好的。中西部地區客戶大量流失，您什麼時候會迎來週年紀念？您能告訴我們 12 個月內的收入損失是多少嗎？

Yeah, so it's going to be kind of Q3-ish. September, around September, end of Q3.

是的，所以它會有點像第三季那樣。九月，大約九月，第三季末。

And one final question, the previous comment on the corporate cost of $15 million to $20 million headline, is this just normal compensation expense coming back, or is there something unusual about it?

最後一個問題，之前關於公司成本 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的評論標題，這只是正常的薪酬費用回歸，還是有什麼不尋常的地方？

Yeah, it's essentially normal, essentially variable compensation coming back in 2025. It's nothing out of out of the ordinary other than that.

是的，這基本上是正常的，2025 年回歸的基本上是可變的薪酬。除此之外並沒有什麼不尋常的。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll turn the call to James Armstrong for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我將請詹姆斯·阿姆斯壯致閉幕詞。

Thank you for joining our call today. If you have any follow up questions, please reach out. I'll be happy to answer them. This ends our call and please have a great day.

感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請與我們聯絡。我很樂意回答他們。我們的通話到此結束，祝您有個愉快的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。