JELD-WEN Holding Inc (JELD) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to JELD-WEN third-quarter 2025 conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to James Armstrong, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may now go ahead, please.

大家好，歡迎參加 JELD-WEN 2025 年第三季電話會議。請注意，本次通話正在錄音。（操作說明）謝謝。現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁詹姆斯·阿姆斯壯。您現在可以繼續了。

Thank you, and good morning. We issued our third quarter 2025 earnings release last night and posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations portion of our website, which can be found at investors.jeld-wen.com. We will be referencing this presentation during our call. Today, I am joined by Bill Christensen, Chief Executive Officer; and Samantha Stoddard, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，早安。我們昨晚發布了2025年第三季財報，並將簡報上傳至公司網站的投資者關係頁面（investors.jeld-wen.com）。我們將在電話會議上提及這份簡報。今天，與我一同出席的有執行長比爾·克里斯滕森和財務長薩曼莎·斯托達德。

Before I turn it over to Bill, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we will make certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our earnings release and provided in our Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. JELD-WEN does not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements, including the guidance we are providing with respect to certain expectations for future results.

在將發言權交給比爾之前，我想提醒大家，在本次電話會議中，我們將發表一些構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》意義上的前瞻性聲明的陳述。這些聲明受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們在獲利報告中列出的風險和不確定性，以及我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格中提供的風險和不確定性。JELD-WEN 不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的任何義務，包括我們針對未來績效的某些預期所提供的指導。

Additionally, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable financial measures calculated under GAAP can be found in our earnings release and in the appendix of our earnings presentation.

此外，在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論非GAAP指標，我們認為這些指標有助於評估我們的表現。不應孤立地看待這些補充信息，也不應將其視為替代按照公認會計原則編制的結果。這些非GAAP指標與其根據GAAP計算的最直接可比較財務指標的調節表，可在我們的盈利報告和盈利演示附錄中找到。

With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Bill.

接下來，我想把電話交給比爾。

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I want to once again recognize our entire team for their ongoing commitment and continued hard work in what has remained a challenging environment. The past quarter has tested our organization in many ways. I'm grateful for the dedication, resilience and collaboration shown across every part of JELD-WEN. It is because of their continued efforts that we remain able to navigate this environment and position the company for long-term success.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，大家早安。在正式開始之前，我想再次感謝我們整個團隊，感謝他們一直以來的奉獻和辛勤工作，我們一直面臨著充滿挑戰的環境。過去一個季度，我們公司在許多方面都經歷了考驗。我感謝 JELD-WEN 各部門所展現的奉獻精神、韌性和協作精神。正是由於他們的持續努力，我們才能在這種環境下生存和發展，並使公司長期成功。

The third quarter, both in Europe and North America, was marked by further softening in market conditions and an overall degradation in demand trends. While we had anticipated stability at low levels both new construction and repair and remodel activity weakened further. We also faced operational challenges that limited our ability to capture additional market share with customer orders coming in below expectations. As a result, our performance fell short of our plans, and we are taking clear actions to address the areas that need improvement strengthen execution and ensure that we are better aligned with the current market conditions.

第三季度，歐洲和北美市場狀況進一步疲軟，整體需求趨勢下滑。儘管我們預期新建築、維修和改建活動將保持低水準穩定，但實際情況卻進一步減弱。我們也面臨著營運方面的挑戰，客戶訂單低於預期，限制了我們獲取更多市場份額的能力。因此，我們的業績未能達到預期，我們正在採取明確的措施來解決需要改進的領域，加強執行力，並確保我們能更好地適應當前的市場狀況。

We continue to experience price cost headwinds across several areas of the business. Inflation in both labor and materials has persisted and given current market dynamics, we have seen some pushback on both tariff-related pricing actions and pricing increases to offset market inflation. These factors have created additional short-term margin pressure, which we are actively working to offset through cost reductions, operational efficiencies and focused performance improvement initiatives. Importantly, we remain confident that the steps we are taking will help us better balance our cost structure with current demand while protecting our long-term strategic priorities.

我們在業務的多個領域持續面臨價格成本的阻力。勞動力和原物料價格的通膨持續存在，鑑於當前的市場動態，我們看到，無論是與關稅相關的定價措施，還是為抵消市場通膨而提高價格，都遭到了一些抵制。這些因素造成了額外的短期利潤壓力，我們正在積極努力透過降低成本、提高營運效率和採取有針對性的績效改善措施來抵消這些壓力。重要的是，我們仍然相信，我們正在採取的措施將有助於我們更好地平衡成本結構與當前需求，同時保護我們的長期策略重點。

Turning now to slide 4 and our third quarter highlights. The quarter reflected a more difficult backdrop than anticipated, driven by softening demand and continued inflationary pressure. In response, we are taking meaningful actions to address our cost base, including approximately 11% reduction of North America and corporate headcount.

現在請看第 4 張投影片，了解我們第三季的亮點。受需求疲軟和持續通膨壓力的影響，本季市場環境比預期更為艱難。為此，我們正在採取切實有效的措施來控製成本，包括減少北美和公司員工約 11%。

Additionally, we are preserving liquidity while continuing to advance our transformation efforts. As part of that work, we are announcing a strategic review of our European business, evaluating all potential alternatives to strengthen our balance sheet and sharpen our strategic focus. While the process is in its early stages and there is nothing further to announce at this time, we believe this review will allow us to effectively address our upcoming maturities and enhance our long-term balance sheet flexibility.

此外，我們在保持流動性的同時，也持續推動轉型工作。作為這項工作的一部分，我們宣布對我們的歐洲業務進行策略性審查，評估所有可能的替代方案，以加強我們的資產負債表並明確我們的策略重點。雖然該過程尚處於早期階段，目前還沒有什麼可以宣布的，但我們相信，此次審查將使我們能夠有效地應對即將到期的債務，並增強我們長期資產負債表的靈活性。

We are also evaluating additional options around smaller noncore assets such as our distribution business and select sale-leaseback transactions. But have nothing specific to announce at this point in time. Our liquidity position remains strong with approximately $100 million in cash, and approximately $400 million of revolver availability. As a reminder, we have no debt maturities until December 2027. Importantly, our only relevant covenant requires an approximate minimum of $40 million in total liquidity compared to our current position of approximately $500 million.

我們也正在評估圍繞較小非核心資產的其他選擇，例如我們的分銷業務和部分售後回租交易。但目前還沒有什麼具體消息要宣布。我們的流動性狀況依然強勁，擁有約 1 億美元的現金和約 4 億美元的循環信貸額度。再次提醒，我們直到 2027 年 12 月都沒有債務到期。重要的是，我們唯一相關的契約要求總流動資金至少達到約 4,000 萬美元，而我們目前的流動資金約為 5 億美元。

We also continue to strengthen the North American team with the addition of Rachel Elliott as EVP of North America. Rachel brings broad experience from our time with other notable building products companies and we are excited to have her join the organization. While the near-term environment remains uncertain, we continue to focus on what we can control: improving execution, strengthening operations and ensuring a strong financial foundation. These actions are designed to ensure that we remain well positioned to capture growth as market conditions improve.

我們也透過任命 Rachel Elliott 為北美執行副總裁，繼續加強北美團隊。瑞秋曾在其他知名建築產品公司工作，累積了豐富的經驗，我們很高興她能加入我們公司。儘管短期環境仍不明朗，但我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情：提高執行力、加強營運和確保強大的財務基礎。這些措施旨在確保我們能夠維持良好的市場地位，以便在市場條件改善時抓住成長機會。

With that, I'll hand it over to Samantha to review our financial results in greater detail.

接下來，我將把這項工作交給薩曼莎，讓她更詳細地審查我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Bill. Turning to slide 6. As Bill mentioned, market conditions remained challenging throughout the quarter, and our results came in below our internal expectations. The shortfall primarily reflects softer market demand. operational challenges that limited our ability to capture incremental share as expected and ongoing price and cost headwinds across several categories.

謝謝你，比爾。翻到第6張投影片。正如比爾所提到的，整個季度市場環境依然充滿挑戰，我們的業績低於內部預期。業績下滑主要反映了市場需求疲軟、營運挑戰限制了我們按預期獲取新增市場份額的能力，以及多個品類持續面臨的價格和成本逆風。

Revenue for the quarter was $809 million, with core revenue down 10% year-over-year. This decline was driven mainly by lower volumes in both North America and Europe as market softness more than offset the benefits from our cost reduction initiatives and productivity efforts.

本季營收為 8.09 億美元，核心營收年減 10%。此次下滑主要是由於北美和歐洲的銷量下降，市場疲軟抵消了我們降低成本和提高生產力措施帶來的收益。

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $44 million or 5.5% of sales and was up sequentially from the prior quarter, although below prior year and below our expectations. The lower margin primarily reflected continued price/cost pressure, unfavorable volume and staffing levels that were set in anticipation of market share gains that did not materialize.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 4,400 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5.5%，較上一季有所成長，但低於去年同期和我們的預期。較低的利潤率主要反映了持續的價格/成本壓力、不利的銷售以及為預期市場份額增長而設定的人員配置水平，而這些增長並未實現。

Turning to cash flow. Earnings pressure and continued investment in transformation initiatives led to negative free cash flow in the quarter. That said, working capital performance remained disciplined, contributing modestly to liquidity and despite the softer sales environment. Our net debt leverage increased to 7.4 times driven by lower year-over-year EBITDA rather than new borrowing. Reducing leverage remains a top priority for us as part of that effort, we have initiated a strategic review of our European segment aimed in part at addressing this elevated leverage and further strengthening our balance sheet.

接下來談談現金流。獲利壓力和對轉型計劃的持續投資導致本季自由現金流為負。儘管如此，營運資本表現依然穩健，在銷售環境疲軟的情況下，仍對流動性做出了適度貢獻。由於年比 EBITDA 下降，而非新增借款，我們的淨債務槓桿率上升至 7.4 倍。降低槓桿率仍然是我們的首要任務，為此，我們啟動了對歐洲業務的策略審查，旨在解決槓桿率過高的問題，並進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

As shown on slide 7, the revenue decline this quarter was driven primarily by lower volumes with core revenue down 10% year-over-year. The softness reflects continued market weakness and share loss, along with carryover from the loss of business with the Midwest retailer that occurred in the third quarter of last year. We also had a negative impact from the court order divestiture of our Towanda operations, which weighed on the year-over-year comparison.

如投影片 7 所示，本季營收下降主要是由於銷售下降，核心營收年減 10%。這種疲軟反映了市場持續疲軟和市場份額下降，以及去年第三季與中西部零售商失去業務的延續影響。法院下令剝離我們在 Towanda 的業務也對我們產生了負面影響，這拖累了同比業績。

Product mix was slightly positive versus the prior year but the benefit was not enough to offset the volume pressure. In a few moments, I will provide additional context on the market factors influencing our performance and how we are positioning the business for the remainder of the year.

產品組合較前一年略有改善，但改善效果不足以抵銷銷售壓力。稍後，我將提供更多關於影響我們業績的市場因素以及我們為今年剩餘時間制定的業務定位方面的背景資訊。

As shown on slide 8, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $44 million, a decline of about $38 million from the prior year. This reflects the continued softness in demand and the unfavorable price and cost environment that persisted throughout the quarter. Lower volumes were the main driver of the decline as reduced production levels weighed on earnings and more than offset the benefits from our ongoing cost actions. Product mix was slightly positive, but the benefit was not enough to offset the volume deleverage from lower demand.

如投影片 8 所示，該季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 4,400 萬美元，比去年同期減少了約 3,800 萬美元。這反映了需求持續疲軟以及整個季度持續存在的不利價格和成本環境。產量下降是導致業績下滑的主要原因，因為產量減少影響了收益，抵消了我們持續採取成本控制措施所帶來的收益。產品組合略有改善，但這種改善不足以抵消需求下降導致的銷售下滑。

At the same time, price and cost pressures remain significant, particularly as labor and material inflation continued to outpace our ability to recover pricing in the market. These factors led to a sequential decline in margins and further compressed profitability year-over-year. Even with these challenges, we continue to make steady progress on our transformation and cost reduction programs, which provided a partial offset to these headwinds. We also delivered additional savings within SG&A reflecting disciplined expense control and execution of the cost actions we've put in place.

同時，價格和成本壓力仍然很大，尤其是勞動力和材料通膨持續超過我們在市場上恢復價格的能力。這些因素導致利潤率環比下降，獲利能力較去年同期進一步壓縮。即使面臨這些挑戰，我們的轉型和成本削減計劃仍在穩步推進，這在一定程度上抵消了這些不利因素。我們在銷售、一般及行政費用方面也實現了額外的節省，這反映了我們嚴格控制費用並有效執行了已實施的成本控制措施。

Turning to our segment results on slide 9. In North America, revenue declined 19% year-over-year, with volume and mix down 13%. The decline was driven primarily by weaker market demand while mix was slightly positive for the quarter. The remainder of the year-over-year decline reflects the court order divestiture of our Towanda operation. Adjusted EBITDA for North America was $38 million compared with $75 million in the same quarter last year.

接下來請看第 9 頁的分部績效結果。在北美，營收年減 19%，銷量和產品組合下降 13%。下滑的主要原因是市場需求疲軟，但本季產品組合略有改善。同比下降的其餘部分反映了法院命令剝離我們在托萬達的業務。北美地區調整後 EBITDA 為 3,800 萬美元，而去年同期為 7,500 萬美元。

The decrease was largely the result of lower volumes and operational inefficiencies associated with reduced manufacturing throughput in addition to the price cost challenges mentioned previously. These headwinds were partially offset by the benefits from our ongoing cost reduction and transformation initiatives. In Europe, revenue increased 2% year-over-year with volume and mix down 6%. As in North America, mix was slightly positive, but overall demand remained soft across several key markets.

除了前面提到的價格成本挑戰之外，產量下降主要是由於產量降低和生產效率下降導致的營運效率低下所造成的。這些不利因素被我們持續推動的成本削減和轉型措施所帶來的益處部分抵銷。在歐洲，營收年增 2%，但銷量和產品組合下降了 6%。與北美的情況類似，產品組合略有好轉，但幾個主要市場的整體需求仍然疲軟。

Adjusted EBITDA for Europe was $16 million, which was roughly flat compared to last year as the benefits of productivity improvements and cost actions largely offset the impact of lower volumes. Before turning it back to Bill, I want to take a moment to address tariffs, which continued to be an area of focus.

歐洲調整後 EBITDA 為 1,600 萬美元，與去年基本持平，因為生產力提高和成本控制措施帶來的收益在很大程度上抵消了銷售下降的影響。在把話題交還給比爾之前，我想花點時間談談關稅問題，這仍然是我們關注的重點領域。

If you turn to slide 10, you'll see an overview of our current exposure under the most recent tariff framework. At current rates, we estimate the annualized impact of tariffs on our business to be around $45 million, with roughly $17 million expected to materialize in our 2025 results. While the situation remains fluid, we've been largely successful in passing through tariff surcharges to most of our customers. However, in recent months, we've begun to experience greater resistance from some of our larger accounts which has slightly tempered our overall recovery rate.

如果您翻到第 10 頁，您將看到我們在最新關稅框架下的當前風險敞口概述。以目前的稅率，我們估計關稅對我們業務的年度影響約為 4500 萬美元，預計其中約 1700 萬美元將在 2025 年的業績中體現出來。雖然情況仍不明朗，但我們已基本成功地將關稅附加費轉嫁給了大多數客戶。然而，近幾個月來，我們的一些大客戶開始表現出更大的抵觸情緒，這稍微降低了我們的整體恢復率。

From a sourcing perspective, our exposure remains relatively modest. Approximately 13% of our combined Tier 1 and Tier 2 supplier spend is subject to potential tariff impact. As we have previously stated, direct sourcing from China represents less than 1% of our total material spend. Even when including Tier 2 exposure, China accounts for about 5% overall. This limited exposure positions us well relative to others in the industry.

從採購角度來看，我們的投資規模仍然相對較小。我們一級和二級供應商總支出中約有 13% 會受到潛在關稅的影響。正如我們之前所說，直接從中國採購的材料支出占我們總材料支出的不到 1%。即使將二線市場曝險也算在內，中國市場整體僅佔約 5%。這種有限的市場曝險使我們在業界處於有利地位。

Overall, while the tariff environment remains uncertain, we're staying nimble in our approach, actively managing near-term impacts and maintaining a disciplined focus on pricing and sourcing strategies that help mitigate cost pressures.

總體而言，儘管關稅環境仍不明朗，但我們仍保持靈活應對，積極管理近期影響，並始終專注於有助於緩解成本壓力的定價和採購策略。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Bill to discuss our updated market outlook and how we're positioning JELD-WEN for the path ahead.

接下來，我將把發言權交還給比爾，讓他來討論我們更新後的市場展望以及 JELD-WEN 如何為未來的發展道路做好準備。

Thanks, Samantha. Turning to slide 12. I want to provide some perspective on how the market environment has evolved since our last update. Earlier this year, we expect the conditions to stabilize at relatively low levels during the back half of 2025. However, over the past three months, we've seen a notable deterioration across our core markets both new construction and repair and remodel activity have weakened further as both consumer confidence and housing affordability remain under pressure.

謝謝你，薩曼莎。翻到第12張投影片。我想就自上次更新以來市場環境的變化提供一些見解。今年早些時候，我們預計到 2025 年下半年，情況將穩定在相對較低的水平。然而，在過去的三個月裡，我們看到核心市場出現了明顯的惡化，新建和維修改造活動進一步減弱，因為消費者信心和住房負擔能力仍然面臨壓力。

In Canada, the slowdown has been especially sharp with housing starts down more than 40% year-over-year, reflecting the broader slowdown in the economy. Given these developments, we've updated our market outlook expectations. In North America, we now anticipate full year demand for windows and doors to be down in the high single digits compared to our prior view of a low to mid-single-digit decline.

在加拿大，經濟放緩的趨勢尤其明顯，房屋開工量年減超過 40%，反映出整體經濟的放緩。鑑於這些發展，我們更新了市場展望預期。在北美，我們現在預計全年門窗需求將下降接近兩位數，而我們先前的預期是下降個位數到中位數。

In Europe, we expect demand for doors to be down mid-single digits versus the low single-digit decline we previously forecasted. Across both regions, demand continues to be concentrated at the lower end of the market with affordability driving purchasing decisions and limiting overall mix-up improvement.

在歐洲，我們預期門的需求量將下降個位數中段，而不是我們先前預測的個位數低段降幅。在這兩個地區，需求仍然集中在市場的低端，購買力決定了消費者的購買意願，限制了整體產品組合的改善。

Turning to slide 13. I'll walk through our updated full year guidance. Following the significant market deterioration we saw during the third quarter, we are lowering our 2025 outlook to reflect current demand levels and operational performance. We now expect sales of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion compared to our previous range of $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be between $105 million and $120 million, down from our prior range of $170 million to $200 million.

翻到第13張幻燈片。我將詳細介紹我們更新後的全年業績指引。鑑於第三季市場大幅惡化，我們下調了 2025 年的展望，以反映當前的需求水準和營運表現。我們現在預計銷售額為 31 億美元至 32 億美元，而我們之前的預期範圍為 32 億美元至 34 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 目前預計在 1.05 億美元至 1.2 億美元之間，低於我們先前預測的 1.7 億美元至 2 億美元。

Core revenue is expected to decline 10% to 13% compared with our previous expectation of a 4% to 9% decline. This change is primarily due to three factors. First, we had limited success on converting the market share gains we had planned for and staff against earlier this year. Second, this revision reflects the further weakening in market demand that emerged late in the quarter and some of our own operational challenges. On sales, we faced continued pressure in a weak market and experienced a modest share loss tied to ongoing operational performance issues.

核心收入預計將下降 10% 至 13%，而我們先前的預期是下降 4% 至 9%。這項變化主要歸因於三個因素。首先，我們未能實現今年稍早計畫的市佔率成長目標，也沒有足夠的人員投入。其次，此次修訂反映了本季後期出現的市場需求進一步疲軟以及我們自身的一些營運挑戰。在銷售方面，我們在疲軟的市場中面臨持續的壓力，並因持續的營運績效問題而經歷了小幅的市佔率損失。

Third, while operations are improving the pace of that improvement is not yet where it needs to be, and we continue to be focused on execution and consistency across the network. Because of these three challenges, we now expect a more typical seasonal pattern in the fourth quarter rather than the relative strength we had previously forecasted. We also anticipate continued negative price cost as pricing pressure has intensified, particularly around the edges of the market. At the same time, some of our larger customers are pushing back more forcefully on tariff surcharges, while cost inflation has accelerated across materials, freight and labor.

第三，雖然營運情況正在改善，但改善的速度還沒有達到應有的水平，我們將繼續專注於整個網路的執行和一致性。由於這三大挑戰，我們現在預計第四季將出現更典型的季節性模式，而不是我們先前預測的相對強勢。我們也預計，隨著價格壓力加劇，尤其是在市場邊緣地區，負價格成本將持續存在。與此同時，我們的一些大客戶正在更強烈地抵制關稅附加費，而原材料、運費和勞動力成本的上漲速度也加快了。

On operating cash flow, we now expect the use of approximately $45 million compared to our prior forecast for a use of $10 million. This includes approximately $15 million of restructuring that will occur in the fourth quarter as part of our workforce reduction. Although EBITDA expectations have come down, we've taken a disciplined approach to working capital and our focus on cash management remains unchanged. We also expect capital expenditures of approximately $125 million, down from our prior forecast of $150 million, reflecting a tighter focus on critical investments.

在經營現金流方面，我們現在預計將使用約 4500 萬美元，而我們先前的預測是使用 1000 萬美元。這其中包括將在第四季度進行的約 1500 萬美元的重組，這是我們裁員計劃的一部分。儘管 EBITDA 預期有所下降，但我們對營運資本採取了嚴格的管理方式，對現金管理的關注度依然不變。我們也預期資本支出約為 1.25 億美元，低於我們先前預測的 1.5 億美元，這反映出我們將更加重視關鍵投資。

Looking ahead to 2026, while we're not providing formal guidance, we would expect CapEx to be lower than this year's level given the current demand outlook and our intent to align spending with market conditions. On leverage, we are actively addressing the issue.

展望 2026 年，雖然我們沒有提供正式的指導，但鑑於目前的需求前景以及我們使支出與市場狀況保持一致的意圖，我們預計資本支出將低於今年的水平。關於槓桿問題，我們正在積極解決。

As part of this, we have announced a strategic review of our European operations. While we cannot predict the outcome of that process, it represents one potential avenue to help reduce leverage and strengthen the balance sheet. We continue to evaluate other strategic options such as selective smaller asset reviews and targeted sale leasebacks. Beyond the European review, however, we have no further updates at this time.

作為其中的一部分，我們已宣布對我們的歐洲業務進行策略性審查。雖然我們無法預測這個過程的結果，但這代表了一種有助於降低槓桿率和加強資產負債表的潛在途徑。我們將繼續評估其他策略選擇，例如有選擇的小規模資產審查和有針對性的售後回租。除了歐洲的審查之外，目前我們沒有其他更新資訊。

Finally, I want to reiterate that we continue to maintain sufficient liquidity for the midterm. As of the end of the third quarter, we have not drawn on our revolver, and we are taking proactive steps to ensure our liquidity position remains strong as we navigate through this challenging environment.

最後，我想重申，我們將繼續保持充足的流動性以應對中期挑戰。截至第三季末，我們尚未動用循環信貸額度，並且我們正在採取積極措施，以確保我們在應對這一充滿挑戰的環境時保持強勁的流動性狀況。

Turning to slide 14. This chart bridges our 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $275 million to our 2025 guidance midpoint of $113 million. As shown on the left, the first step reflects the court order Towanda divestiture, which is expected to reduce EBITDA by about $50 million this year. The most significant change comes from market volume and mix, which we now expect to reduce earnings by roughly $100 million, reflecting the broad-based deterioration we have seen in both new construction and repair and remodel activity. We're also seeing a modest impact from share loss as operational challenges have limited our ability to recapture volume in several key product lines.

翻到第14張投影片。這張圖表將我們 2024 年調整後的 EBITDA 2.75 億美元與我們 2025 年指引中位數 1.13 億美元連結起來。如左圖所示，第一步反映了法院下令剝離 Towanda 資產，預計今年將使 EBITDA 減少約 5000 萬美元。最顯著的變化來自市場規模和結構，我們現在預計這將使收益減少約 1 億美元，這反映了我們在新建項目以及維修和改造活動方面看到的全面惡化。我們也看到市場份額的損失帶來了一定程度的影響，因為營運方面的挑戰限制了我們在幾個關鍵產品線上恢復銷售的能力。

Moving left to right across the chart, price and cost headwinds have intensified when compared to our earlier expectations. Competitive pricing pressure has increased, especially at the lower end of the market, while cost inflation in materials, freight and labor has accelerated. These dynamics, combined with lower base productivity driven by volume loss represent another significant drag on earnings.

從圖表的左到右看，與我們先前的預期相比，價格和成本的不利因素已經加劇。競爭性定價壓力增大，尤其是在市場低端，同時材料、運費和勞動成本上漲速度加快。這些因素，再加上銷量下滑導致的基礎生產力下降，對獲利造成了另一個重大拖累。

On the positive side, we continue to benefit from headwind mitigation actions and transformation initiatives, which together are expected to contribute about $150 million in savings this year. These benefits include both carryover savings from 2024 and the in-year actions already implemented.

從積極的方面來看，我們繼續受益於應對逆風的措施和轉型計劃，預計這些措施和計劃今年將共同節省約 1.5 億美元。這些收益包括 2024 年結轉的節省金額和已實施的年度措施。

The remaining items include variable compensation and onetime reversals which represent a modest headwind and foreign exchange and other, which provide a small tailwind. Altogether, these factors bring us to our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint of $113 million, reflecting the additional price, cost, volume and productivity headwinds that have emerged since our last update.

其餘項目包括可變薪酬和一次性調整，這些都構成輕微的不利因素；以及外匯和其他因素，這些都構成輕微的有利因素。綜合以上因素，我們得出 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 指引中位數為 1.13 億美元，反映了自上次更新以來出現的其他價格、成本、銷售和生產力方面的不利因素。

Moving to slide 15. The current results do not reflect the potential of JELD-WEN and are disappointing. We have begun and will continue to take broader actions required to change the trajectory of JELD-WEN, including addressing our cost base.

切換到第15張投影片。目前的結果未能反映 JELD-WEN 的潛力，令人失望。我們已經開始並將繼續採取更廣泛的行動來改變 JELD-WEN 的發展軌跡，包括解決我們的成本基礎問題。

First, we have initiated a strategic review of our European business. While the outcome of this review is not predetermined and difficult decisions must be made. Our European operations include well-known brands and highly skilled teams that have built leading positions in their respective markets. The strategic review will determine how we can unlock the value of our European assets to strengthen our long-term financial foundation.

首先，我們啟動了對歐洲業務的策略評估。雖然這次審查的結果並非預先確定，而且必須做出艱難的決定。我們的歐洲業務包括知名品牌和高技能團隊，這些品牌和團隊已在其各自的市場中建立了領先地位。策略評估將決定我們如何釋放歐洲資產的價值，以加強我們的長期財務基礎。

Second, we are rightsizing our North America cost base which includes a headcount reduction of approximately 11% by the end of this year. The market of windows and doors has contracted sharply over the past three years, and we do not expect a rapid recovery. We can no longer maintain a structured design for a level of demand not expected in the near term. Third, we continue to simplify our product portfolio and are removing unnecessary complexity. Our portfolio breadth has added complexity that must be balanced with our customers' expectations on service and product costs.

其次，我們正在調整北美地區的成本結構，其中包括今年年底裁員約 11%。過去三年，門窗市場急劇萎縮，我們預計不會很快復甦。我們無法再維持結構化的設計，以因應短期內無法預期的需求水準。第三，我們將繼續簡化產品組合，並消除不必要的複雜性。我們產品組合的廣泛性增加了複雜性，必須將其與客戶對服務和產品成本的期望相平衡。

We will center our efforts on a defined set of core product families. And when customers need bespoke solutions, we must deliver them with precision and price them for their value. This will lead to improved service levels and better operating efficiency. These actions are not adjustments and will redefine how this company operates and competes. The current environment requires the painful but necessary decisions to ensure performance, accountability and free cash flow growth.

我們將把精力集中在一組明確的核心產品系列上。當客戶需要客製化解決方案時，我們必須精準地交付，並根據其價值定價。這將有助於提高服務水準和營運效率。這些措施並非調整，而是將重新定義這家公司的營運和競爭方式。當前環境需要做出痛苦但必要的決定，以確保業績、問責制和自由現金流成長。

As we execute on these significant changes, I want to take a moment to thank our teams across JELD-WEN for their dedication and hard work. Their focus and commitment are driving real progress in our operations every day. I also want to thank our customers for their continued partnership as we further strengthen our service and reliability. We remain confident that the actions we are taking today, both operational and strategic are setting up a stronger JELD-WEN in the years ahead.

在我們執行這些重大變革之際，我想藉此機會感謝 JELD-WEN 各團隊的奉獻和辛勤工作。他們的專注和投入每天都在推動我們營運取得實際進展。我還要感謝我們的客戶一直以來的支持與合作，我們將持續加強服務與可靠性。我們仍然相信，我們今天採取的營運和策略行動，將為未來幾年打造一個更強大的 JELD-WEN。

Thank you once again for your continued support and interest. With that, I will now turn the call back over to James for the Q&A.

再次感謝您一直以來的支持與關注。接下來，我將把電話交還給詹姆斯，讓他進行問答環節。

Thanks, Bill. Operator, we're now ready to begin Q&A.

謝謝你，比爾。操作員，我們現在可以開始問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊‧馬克拉里，高盛集團。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is going back to the share losses that you talked about in your prepared remarks. Can you give us a bit more color on where those are coming from? How they came through over the last quarter? And then understanding that you've had a more challenging time regaining some of that share. But just how do you think about the path from here?

謝謝。各位早安。我的第一個問題是回到您在準備好的演講稿中提到的股票虧損問題。能否詳細介紹一下這些來源？他們在上個季度表現如何？然後意識到，你重新獲得部分份額的過程更加艱難。但你如何看待接下來的道路呢？

So thanks for the question, Susan. A couple of comments. As you remember, there was a significant share loss last year with the Midwest retailer on the Windows side of the business. So that laps in September. So we were still tackling that base effect in Q3.

謝謝你的提問，蘇珊。幾點說明。您應該還記得，去年中西部零售商在門窗業務方面遭遇了嚴重的市場份額損失。所以，那是九月的比賽。所以我們在第三季仍在努力解決基數效應的問題。

Second point, as we did note in our prepared remarks, pricing remains challenging across the market in North America, particularly and there have been some aggressive pricing actions around the edges from some competitors, mainly on the door side of the business.

第二點，正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所提到的，北美市場的定價仍然充滿挑戰，尤其是一些競爭對手在邊緣地帶採取了一些激進的定價策略，主要集中在門市業務方面。

So we have seen specific regional share loss, but on balance, not material. And I think the third point is, as we continue to our simplification of our portfolio, our target is to reduce approximately 30% of our SKUs by year-end were not by year-end, excuse me, we're in the process of reducing 30% of our SKUs. We're about 50% of the way there. So we have been trimming complexity which allows us then to optimize our service levels into our customers.

因此，我們看到某些地區的市佔率有所下降，但整體而言，下降幅度並不大。我認為第三點是，隨著我們不斷簡化產品組合，我們的目標是在年底前減少約 30% 的 SKU（如果不是在年底前，抱歉，我們正在減少 30% 的 SKU）。我們已經完成了大約50%。因此，我們一直在簡化流程，從而優化我們為客戶提供的服務水準。

I think the last point is then just a weak overall market. And we've said we're really focused on rebalancing our shares with customers where we have strong door volume, we want to try and increase our window business and the other way around. We've actually made some progress on the Windows side.

我認為最後一點反映的是整體市場疲軟。我們已經說過，我們真正專注於重新平衡與客戶的份額，在門銷量強勁的客戶中，我們希望努力增加窗戶業務，反之亦然。我們在 Windows 方面確實取得了一些進展。

But in general, the soft market has created, I think, opportunities from aggressive pricing as we've talked about and our portfolio reduction, which is simplification driven has also led to a little bit of that. And as we look forward, we see that continuing into the fourth quarter from a market standpoint. Volumes remain soft. Nothing that we've seen in the month of October would suggest a different run rate so we're expecting that through the end of the year, and you can see that on the bridge.

但總的來說，我認為疲軟的市場創造了機會，正如我們之前討論過的，積極的定價策略帶來了機會，而我們以簡化為導向的投資組合縮減也帶來了一些這樣的機會。展望未來，從市場角度來看，我們認為這種情況會延續到第四季。銷量依然疲軟。十月我們看到的任何跡像都表明運行速度不會發生變化，因此我們預計這種情況會持續到年底，你可以從橋牌上看出這一點。

And just to follow up on that, Susan, when you compare kind of our previous guidance to the bridge that we're sharing in this earnings release, the share loss hasn't changed. That is, as Bill described. Most of this has already occurred. It's more about the volume mix that we expected to gain that did not materialize. That's the big change on that.

蘇珊，我再補充一點，如果你將我們先前的業績指引與我們在本次財報發布中公佈的業績指引進行比較，就會發現股價下跌的情況並沒有改變。正如比爾所描述的。其中大部分已經發生了。更確切地說，是我們預期會獲得的銷售組合併沒有實現。這就是那方面最大的改變。

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. And then turning to the productivity and the cost saving efforts that you have been working on, can you give us an update on where those projects are how you're thinking about the carryover benefit into 2026? Appreciating you're not giving guidance for next year yet, but just any thoughts on those projects specifically where they're falling and the outlook there?

好的。那很有幫助。謝謝。接下來，關於您一直在努力提高生產力和節省成本的舉措，您能否向我們介紹一下這些專案的進展情況，以及您如何考慮將這些效益延續到 2026 年？我知道您目前還沒有給出明年的指導意見，但您對這些項目的具體情況以及前景有什麼看法嗎？

Sure, Susan. As you've seen on our guidance bridge, page 14, we expect about $150 million to offset the various headwinds that we've laid out as in prior years, we would expect from our transformation savings of about $100 million, roughly half of that to roll forward and in addition, as we've announced and talked about today in the prepared remarks, there are going to be some pretty significant headcount reductions taking place in the fourth quarter of this year, and we would expect benefits of roughly $50 million as we're thinking about a full year impact to 2026. So that's roughly $100 million currently. And I think we wouldn't want to give any more specific guidance than that.

當然可以，蘇珊。正如您在我們的指導說明第 14 頁所看到的，我們預計將有約 1.5 億美元來抵消我們列出的各種不利因素，就像往年一樣，我們預計轉型節省將達到約 1 億美元，其中大約一半將結轉到下一年。此外，正如我們今天在準備好的演講稿中宣布和談到的那樣，今年第四季度將進行一些相當大的裁員，我們預計這將帶來約 5000 萬美元的收益，因為我們正在考慮到 2026 年的全年影響。所以目前大約是1億美元。我認為我們不打算給出比這更具體的指導。

And on Susan on that, the headwind mitigation of $50 million, that was already done and executed in the beginning part of this year. So taking effect in the transformation initiatives that we have, the $100 million, those are already underway delivering results, things like plant closures, automation equipment that is now up and running in production. So back to Bill's point, these are already done in our P&L. Unfortunately, the other items like the more significantly negative price cost volume essentially not the incremental share that we expected is offsetting those.

關於蘇珊提到的那項5000萬美元的逆風緩解措施，已經在今年年初完成並執行了。因此，在我們已投入 1 億美元的轉型計畫中，這些計畫正在實施並取得成果，例如工廠關閉、自動化設備現已投入生產運作。所以回到比爾的觀點，這些都已經在我們的損益表中完成了。不幸的是，其他因素，例如更嚴重的負面價格成本和銷售成長，並沒有達到我們預期的增量份額，抵消了這些影響。

Okay. That's very helpful color. Thank you, both and good luck with the quarter.

好的。那是一個非常有用的顏色。謝謝你們兩位，祝福你們本季一切順利。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my questions as well. And maybe just a follow-up on Susan's question and just to put a finer point on it. The outlook implies $55 million of productivity, SG&A and other in the fourth quarter. I think there's only been about $37 million year-to-date. So what is driving that ramp? It sounds like if I understood the answer to Susan's question, that a lot of this is already baked and is what you're going to come through? Is that the right way to think about it?

嘿，夥計們。謝謝您耐心解答我的問題。也許可以就蘇珊的問題做個後續補充，更詳細地說明一下。預計第四季生產力、銷售、一般及行政費用和其他費用將達到 5,500 萬美元。我認為今年迄今只有大約 3700 萬美元。那麼，是什麼因素推動了這種趨勢？聽起來，如果我理解蘇珊問題的答案沒錯的話，很多事情已經定型了，而你即將經歷的就是這些？這種思考方式正確嗎？

Yeah. So thanks for the question, John. It's -- a lot of the savings are fully baked -- so the headwind mitigation, the transformation is fully baked. The action that Bill described in the recorded remarks, are not expected to have a material impact in Q4. We would expect that full run rate going into 2026.

是的。謝謝你的提問，約翰。許多節省措施已經完全落實，因此應對不利因素和轉型措施也完全落實。比爾在錄音講話中描述的行動預計不會對第四季產生實質影響。我們預計到 2026 年將達到完全運行水準。

Where you see in just kind of isolating maybe Q4 and looking at that year-on-year, the biggest drivers, I would say, on the negative side are the volume mix, which is, let's call it, in line with what we expected in Q3 in previous quarters. Price cost, unfortunately, being more negative -- and part of that is some of the resistance on tariff surcharge pass-throughs. So that is more negative in Q4.

如果單獨來看第四季度，並按同比來看，我認為最大的不利因素是銷售結構，這與我們之前幾季在第三季的預期基本一致。遺憾的是，價格成本更加不利——部分原因是關稅附加費轉嫁方面存在一些阻力。所以第四季情況更加糟糕。

And then the continued, let's call it, court ordered divestiture of Towanda impact into our P&L. The mitigation efforts, those are -- as I said, they're already done and dusted and they're in the P&L. And so that's going to be helping to offset some of those.

然後，我們姑且稱之為法院強制剝離 Towanda 的行動繼續對我們的損益表產生了影響。緩解措施，正如我所說，已經全部完成，並且已經計入損益表。因此，這將有助於抵消其中的一些影響。

Okay. Maybe I'm missing it. So I'm still curious where that $55 million is coming from when there's been only $37 million year-to-date. What's driving that $55 million?

好的。或許是我漏掉了什麼。所以，我仍然很好奇，今年迄今為止只有 3700 萬美元的收入，那麼這 5500 萬美元是從哪裡來的。這5500萬美元的驅動因素是什麼？

You're talking about the $55 million of negative base productivity.

你指的是5,500萬美元的負基礎生產力損失。

No product savings. Yeah.

沒有產品優惠。是的。

Okay. So when you think about on the bridge, the base productivity, and I think this is what you're referring to, the negativity on that is coming from the fact that we staffed up our -- we stacked up our network in order to support incremental share gains that did not materialize. So in addition to essentially not having the volume flow-through, we then had costs we had to come out.

好的。所以，當你思考橋樑上的基本生產力時，我想這就是你指的是什麼，這方面的負面情緒來自於這樣一個事實：我們增加了人員配備——我們擴充了網絡，以支持那些並未實現的市場份額增長。所以，除了銷售量沒有成長之外，我們還要承擔相應的成本。

So when you think about -- I think your question, John, is looking at there's transformation of around $100 million and then there's going to be base productivity offsetting that. And I think that's where you get to essentially the combination of what you're driving at. So $150 million, right, of, let's call it, good guys from actions we've already taken, less that negative base productivity gets you to a net of, let's call it, $100 million.

所以當你思考——我認為你的問題，約翰，是著眼於大約 1 億美元的轉型，然後基礎生產力將抵消這部分損失。我認為這就是你最終要達成的目標的結合點。所以，1.5億美元，沒錯，我們姑且稱之為「好人」從我們已經採取的行動中獲得的收益，減去負的基本生產力損失，淨收益就只有1億美元。

Okay. All right. We'll follow up on that. Just I guess the 39% reduction in EBITDA expectations since August, I'm curious, I mean has the market gotten that much worse? Or were there things that just were not foreseen by you guys that maybe should have been? I mean what drove that 39% reduction?

好的。好的。我們會跟進此事。我只是覺得，自 8 月以來 EBITDA 預期下降了 39%，我很好奇，我的意思是，市場真的惡化到這種程度了嗎？或者說，有沒有一些你們沒有預料到，但或許該預料到的事？我的意思是，是什麼導致了這39%的降幅？

So let me start with -- let's start with sales, John, at the top. So in the second quarter, we had growth plans that we had staffed up for in our network, as Samantha mentioned, and they did not materialize. There's a couple of reasons for that. Number one, the market was softer in Q3 than we had anticipated. So that's point number one.

那麼，就讓我從──約翰，我們先從最重要的銷售說起。正如薩曼莎所提到的那樣，我們在第二季度製定了成長計劃，並在我們的網路中配備了相應的人員，但這些計劃並沒有實現。這有兩個原因。第一，第三季市場疲軟程度超出了我們的預期。這是第一點。

The initiatives also that we were running, there was a basket of different initiatives to start trying to offset some of the headwinds in the market, and we were really focused on product line initiatives, and the market was pivoting and wanting more portfolio baskets in the different projects that they were running across the network. So we were product line focused and not portfolio folks, which created challenges for us to be able to drive that penetration and there was a lower take rate.

我們當時也正在推行一系列不同的舉措，以期抵銷市場上的一些不利因素。我們當時非常專注於產品線舉措，而市場也在轉變，希望在他們在整個網路中運作的不同專案中擁有更多的產品組合。因此，我們專注於產品線，而不是產品組合，這給我們帶來了挑戰，導致我們難以推動產品滲透，最終產品採用率較低。

And third, we've had some selective service issues across our network, and we've made a ton of progress, and I would say we're very close to where we need to be, but we were still struggling in the third quarter and our ability to react on some specific areas was below our own expectations. So what are we doing? We're rightsizing our cost structure to market reality, we're further simplifying our portfolio. As I've noted, we were taking about 30% of the SKUs out, we're about midway through that. And we've been really driving the operating model rollout across our network of distribution windows and doors manufacturing sites in North America.

第三，我們的網路出現了一些選擇性服務問題，我們取得了巨大的進步，我認為我們已經非常接近目標了，但我們在第三季度仍然面臨一些困難，我們在某些​​特定領域的反應能力低於預期。所以我們現在在做什麼？我們正在調整成本結構以適應市場實際情況，並進一步簡化產品組合。正如我之前提到的，我們正在淘汰大約 30% 的 SKU，目前已經完成了一半。我們一直在大力推動在北美分銷網絡、門窗製造基地推廣這種營運模式。

And so we missed the market downturn, John, we thought we're going to be able to compensate some of it with our own initiatives. We did not materialize based on limited take rates, and we staffed up for that, and that hit us hard in the third quarter, and we're correcting now that as we go into the fourth quarter.

約翰，所以我們錯過了市場低迷期，我們以為我們可以透過自己的舉措來彌補一部分損失。由於市場接受度有限，我們的目標未能實現，我們也為此增加了人手，但這在第三季度對我們造成了沉重打擊，現在我們進入第四季度，正在糾正這種情況。

Okay. Thanks, Bill.

好的。謝謝你，比爾。

Philip Ng, Jefferies.

Philip Ng，傑富瑞集團。

Hi. You have Fiona on for Phil today. Thanks for taking my question. Just wondering on your full year EBITDA guidance, can you help us understand how much of that is coming from Europe? We're assuming about roughly half of the consolidated total. Is that directionally correct?

你好。今天菲爾的節目由菲奧娜主持。謝謝您回答我的問題。我想了解貴公司對全年 EBITDA 的預期，能否幫我們了解其中有多少來自歐洲？我們假設大約是合併總額的一半。方向正確嗎？

Yeah. That's directionally correct. So when you think about Europe and North America, how much is coming from each, it's about in line. We've seen, let's call it, an improvement of Europe. And unfortunately, because of some of the challenges in the North American market, a bit of a decline in North America year-on-year from an EBITDA standpoint. So that's the right way to look at it, Fiona. Thank you for the question.

是的。方向是對的。所以，當你考慮歐洲和北美各自的產值時，你會發現兩者大致相當。我們已經看到，不妨稱之為歐洲的進步。但不幸的是，由於北美市場的一些挑戰，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，北美地區的表現比去年同期略有下降。菲奧娜，這才是正確的看待這個問題的方式。謝謝你的提問。

Thank you. And then one more. So if you were to sell your business and say you got probably 7.5 multiple like you did for Australia business. Our math it wouldn't really move to leverage that much so just wondering, can you provide more color on that, maybe both on deleveraging and liquidity? Thank you.

謝謝。然後又來了一個。所以，如果你要出售你的企業，假設你像在澳洲那樣賣掉了你的企業，獲得了大約 7.5 倍的價格。根據我們的計算，槓桿化程度不會那麼高，所以想請您詳細解釋一下，例如去槓桿化和流動性方面？謝謝。

Thanks for the question, Fiona. So clearly, we're not going to share any details of expectations. What I want to say is that if the decision made on the strategic review would be one that generates capital, we would use that to deleverage and strengthen our balance sheet. And clearly, that is a focus that we've been talking about for a number of quarters to make sure that we are managing our balance sheet effectively.

謝謝你的提問，菲奧娜。所以很顯然，我們不會透露任何預期細節。我想說的是，如果策略評估的決定能夠產生資金，我們將利用這些資金來降低槓桿率，並加強我們的資產負債表。顯然，這是我們幾個季度以來一直在討論的重點，目的是確保我們有效地管理資產負債表。

The second comment in that area is there's no liquidity issues. We have a revolver. We're expecting that we have ample liquidity. And so we're managing the process and evaluating all options as you would in a strategic review. And once we have more clarity on that, we'll be back to the capital markets share details.

第二點是，這方面不存在流動性問題。我們有一把左輪手槍。我們預計流動資金充足。因此，我們正在管理整個流程，並像進行策略審查一樣評估所有方案。一旦我們對這一點有了更清晰的了解，我們將回到資本市場份額的詳細情況。

Got it. Thank you so much.

知道了。太感謝了。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

Trevor Allinson，Wolfe Research。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First one just on 4Q EBITDA guidance, the implied EBITDA guidance, the bottom end of that is roughly breakeven from an EBITDA perspective. That would be a pretty severe decline sequentially compared to what you guys are expecting from a revenue standpoint from 3Q to 4Q. Can you just talk about what's driving that big drop-off in EBITDA expectations sequentially? Anything more onetime in nature occurring in 4Q, then that wouldn't repeat going forward?

您好，早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。首先，關於第四季 EBITDA 指引，隱含的 EBITDA 指引，其下限從 EBITDA 的角度來看大致是損益平衡。與你們預期從第三季到第四季的收入相比，這將是一個相當嚴重的環比下滑。您能否談談導致 EBITDA 預期季比大幅下降的原因？第四季發生的某些事件如果屬於一次性事件，那麼以後就不會再發生了？

Yeah. I can go through that. So a few things. When we initially guided out, we expected a nonseasonal Q4, so a much stronger Q4 in terms of both the volume as well as the productivity. And unfortunately, we are seeing, I would say, more of the seasonality that we've seen in previous years.

是的。我可以接受。有幾件事。我們最初預測，第四季度將是一個非季節性季度，因此無論從產量還是生產力來看，第四季度都會更加強勁。不幸的是，我認為，我們看到的季節性波動比往年更明顯。

So when you think about the range that we've guided to, you're correct on the low end of that range and that's tied to some of the uncertainty that we are seeing going into Q4. The last month of the year is generally for us, a very soft year with different holiday period, customer buying patterns. And so it's hard to predict on that.

所以，考慮到我們給出的預期範圍，你對範圍下限的判斷是正確的，這與我們目前對第四季的一些不確定性有關。每年的最後一個月對我們來說通常都是淡季，因為假期安排和顧客購買模式都與往年不同。所以很難對此進行預測。

But I would say when you look at kind of the midpoint of our range and how we're guiding to the two biggest drivers, as I talked about earlier are the volume mix being, I would say, as down year-on-year as Q3 with maybe a little bit more of softness and then the price/cost negativity being almost double what we experienced in Q3.

但我想說的是，當我們審視我們產品範圍的中點以及我們如何引導兩大驅動因素時，正如我之前提到的，銷量組合同比下降幅度與第三季度一樣，甚至可能略微疲軟一些，而價格/成本的負面影響幾乎是第三季度的兩倍。

We are seeing cost inflation, of course, more in line with our expectations, maybe slightly higher, but more in line with what we expected. Unfortunately, the pricing realization is lower than expected, as we talked about earlier. So those two are, I would say, the biggest needle movers in driving. And then some of the base productivity is we need to rightsize our North America structure for the lower demand that did not materialize from the incremental gains we initially expected.

我們當然看到了成本上漲，這更符合我們的預期，或許略高一些，但更符合我們的預期。遺憾的是，正如我們之前討論的那樣，實際定價低於預期。所以，我認為這兩項是汽車產業中影響最大的因素。此外，部分基礎生產力問題在於，我們需要調整北美地區的結構，以適應並未如我們最初預期的那樣實現的較低需求。

Okay. Thanks for that. That's very helpful. And then circling back to liquidity here, more near-term liquidity, assuming Europe takes some time to play out here and any actions potentially in your distribution business takes some time to play out. Is your expectation to lean into your revolver near term, just given we're going into a slower part of the year. And then you also talked about potential for sale and leaseback actions. Any color on how much liquidity those actions could generate? Thank you.

好的。謝謝。那很有幫助。然後，我們再回到流動性問題上來，更確切地說是短期流動性問題，因為假設歐洲局勢需要一段時間才能明朗，而您在分銷業務中可能採取的任何行動也需要一段時間才能見效。鑑於我們即將進入一年中較為清淡的時期，您是否預計近期會更多地使用左輪手槍？然後您也談到了出售和回租的可能性。關於這些舉措可能產生的流動性規模，有什麼具體數據可以說明嗎？謝謝。

Sure. So in terms of liquidity, as we've talked about, we have not drawn the revolver to date. Our plans are to not draw on the revolver in Q4. We have not guided anything on 2026 nor are we providing guidance at this time. But from a liquidity standpoint, we are already working through some select sale leasebacks to provide additional liquidity as a buffer.

當然。所以就流動性而言，正如我們之前討論過的，我們至今還沒有動用循環信貸額度。我們的計劃是在第四季不使用左輪手槍。我們沒有對2026年做出任何預測，目前也不會提供任何預測。但從流動性角度來看，我們已經在進行一些精選的售後回租交易，以提供額外的流動性作為緩衝。

And when you look at Q4, just in isolation outside of some of the cost measures or the cost actions that we are taking, which will have restructuring costs tied to it, we are driving to a free cash flow neutrality in Q4. So we are pulling back our CapEx. We are managing working capital in a much more, I would say, rigorous and disciplined fashion, and that would continue. So from a liquidity standpoint, we are taking actions on, let's call it, more select smaller pieces of our real estate portfolio. And I would say nothing to guide into '26 at this time.

如果你單獨來看第四季度，撇開我們正在採取的一些成本措施或成本行動（這些措施或行動會產生重組成本），我們正努力在第四季度實現自由現金流中性。因此，我們正在削減資本支出。我們對營運資金的管理方式更加嚴格、更有自律，而且這種做法還會持續下去。因此，從流動性角度來看，我們正在對房地產投資組合中一些更精選的小部分採取行動。目前我不會就 2026 年發表任何指導意見。

Okay. Thank you for all that color. Very helpful. Good luck moving forward.

好的。謝謝你帶來如此絢麗的色彩。很有幫助。祝你未來一切順利。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Steven Ramsey, Thompson Research Group.

Steven Ramsey，湯普森研究小組。

Hi, good morning. On the share gain that you expected to capture would you say that opportunity is gone? Or is that something that you hope to get in '26 to greater fruition and then maybe if you could share any detail on the opportunity itself, if it was windows or doors or channel in color there?

您好，早安。您認為您預期能夠獲得的市佔率成長機會已經消失了嗎？或者，您是否希望在 2026 年取得更大的成果？如果是的話，您能否分享一下這個機會的具體細節，例如窗戶、門或彩色通道？

Yeah. Stephen, good morning. So definitely something that we expect that we're going to be able to target in 2026. A number of these things that we were targeting would be in the bucket of share we never should have lost, and I'm linking that to some challenging performance across our network, service levels, specifically. And we felt we were ready to go and get it, but the market obviously took a step down in the third quarter, and that was unexpected by our organization, and we were challenged by that headwind.

是的。史蒂芬，早安。所以，這絕對是我們預計在 2026 年能夠實現的目標之一。在我們努力爭取的這些份額中，有許多原本不該失去，我認為這與我們在網路和服務水準面臨的一些挑戰性問題有關。我們當時覺得我們已經準備好去爭取，但市場在第三季明顯下滑，這出乎我們公司的意料，我們也受到了這種逆風的挑戰。

So clearly, we're making great progress across our network, getting our service levels where they need to be, and we're going to be tackling this in 2026 on a different cost base, and we do expect as we've said, that there's not going to be dramatic changes in volume. So we're going to have to control what we can control, and that's what we're planning on doing in '26.

顯然，我們的網路正在取得巨大進展，服務水準正在達到應有的水平，我們將在 2026 年以不同的成本基礎來解決這個問題，而且正如我們所說，我們預計業務量不會發生劇烈變化。所以我們必須控制我們能夠控制的事情，而這正是我們計劃在 2026 年要做的事情。

Okay. That's helpful color. And then on the pricing pushback, I think you attribute it to large customers. Can you share any more detail on that pushback? And is this something that continues to impact in '26? Or does this impact the usual annual pricing actions that you would be taking as you would every year for 2026.

好的。這是個很有幫助的顏色。至於價格方面的阻力，我認為應該要歸咎於大客戶。能詳細說說這次阻力嗎？這種情況在 2026 年是否仍會持續產生影響？或者，這會影響您像往年一樣在 2026 年採取的常規年度定價措施？

Yeah. So a number of different questions in that question, Steve. Let me just start with 2025 because that's what we're talking through and what we have visibility to. So as you've seen from our bridge, we're expecting roughly a $50 million credit cost headwind for full year '25, and clearly, we can't continue at that rate. So we're taking a lot of actions addressing cost structure, driving efficiency and simplification to more effectively manage the headwinds going forward.

是的。所以，史蒂夫，這個問題包含了許多不同的問題。我先從 2025 年說起吧，因為這是我們討論的重點，也是我們能夠預見的。正如您從我們的橋樑圖中看到的那樣，我們預計 2025 年全年將面臨大約 5000 萬美元的信貸成本阻力，顯然，我們不能再以這樣的速度繼續下去了。因此，我們正在採取許多措施來解決成本結構問題，提高效率並簡化流程，以更有效地應對未來的不利因素。

It still remains a dynamic market with tariffs still, I would put it in the dynamic bucket with potential changes ahead. We know what we need to do in order to drive mitigation, and that's going to be our focus and already is our focus this year. And I don't want to guide or commit to anything that we'd be thinking through next year. But clearly, we know that we have a lot of homework to be done and it is a challenged environment.

雖然關稅仍然存在，但它仍然是一個充滿活力的市場，我會把它歸類為具有潛在變化的動態市場。我們知道為了推動緩解措施需要做什麼，這將是我們今年的工作重點，而且已經是我們的工作重點了。我不想對我們明年正在考慮的任何事情做出指導或承諾。但很顯然，我們知道還有很多工作要做，而且這是一個充滿挑戰的環境。

We can see consumers are still being very discretionary on larger ticket items, especially what we see through our retail partners. There's hesitation based on affordability and uncertainty, and that's continuing putting additional pressure, obviously, on the price side of the equation.

我們可以看到，消費者在購買高價商品時仍然非常謹慎，尤其是透過我們的零售合作夥伴看到的這種情況。由於經濟承受能力和不確定性，人們猶豫不決，這顯然會繼續給價格帶來額外的壓力。

All right. Appreciate the color. Thanks.

好的。欣賞這種顏色。謝謝。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·布雷，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning. (inaudible) on for Matt today. Thank you for taking my questions. So I wanted to start off. I'm wondering how sales trended through the quarter and into October. As we saw some interest rate relief. And similarly, how has mix trended as you see relief on the rate side. I'm wondering if people are willing to mix up and more broadly, what you think is necessary to improve the mix dynamics I know mix is positive this quarter, but maybe it's more so a function of lapping easier year-over-year comps. Thanks.

早安. （聽不清楚）今天由馬特主持。謝謝您回答我的問題。所以我想先開始。我想知道本季以及10月份的銷售趨勢如何。我們看到利率下降。同樣地，隨著利率方面的緩解，投資組合的趨勢如何？我想知道大家是否願意進行混合搭配，更廣泛地說，你認為需要做些什麼來改善混合搭配的動態？我知道本季的混合搭配是正面的，但這可能更多是由於同比基數較低所致。謝謝。

So let me take the first part. When we're thinking about kind of the rate -- the funds rate decline and that trickling then down through. There's a couple of different dynamics. I mean there's huge pent-up demand. Obviously, there's a lot of home equity that's there but not being acted on because there is uncertainty. If we think about mortgage rates and where mortgage rates currently are and where they need to be to create some additional significant traction. I don't think we're yet at a point where we're going to see dramatic improvements.

那麼，讓我來回答第一部分。當我們考慮利率的時候——基金利率下降，然後這種影響會向下蔓延。這裡存在著幾種不同的動態因素。我的意思是，市場存在著巨大的潛在需求。顯然，有許多房屋淨值沒有被利用，因為存在不確定性。如果我們考慮一下抵押貸款利率，以及目前的抵押貸款利率水準和為了產生更大的成長動力所需達到的水準。我認為我們目前還不會看到顯著的改善。

And again, you need to remember after the Fed funds rates decline, if it does flow through to the long end of the curve and mortgages are repriced, there is an expectation that doors and windows, especially if it's new construction or probably six to nine months behind the start. So there clearly is a lag from rate reduction to products being purchased and built in to new homes.

再次提醒，聯準會基金利率下降後，如果利率下降的趨勢傳導至長期利率，抵押貸款重新定價，那麼人們預期門窗價格也會隨之上漲，尤其是新建房屋，或者可能比開工時間晚六到九個月。因此，從降價到產品被購買並安裝到新房中，顯然存在一個滯後時間。

So don't expect a very close connect between rate reductions and volume increases on the new construction side of the business. I think in general, consumers still remain very cautious. I said before to Steven's question, big ticket items are still very slow in the retail side of the business, and the expectations are that this continues. We haven't seen a significantly different trend in October than we did through the third quarter. And so I think, to answer your question specifically, the Fed funds reductions did not move the needle for us in the month of October.

因此，不要指望新建築業務的費率下降與數量增加之間會有非常緊密的聯繫。我認為總體而言，消費者仍然非常謹慎。我之前在回答 Steven 的問題時說過，零售業務的大件商品銷售仍然非常緩慢，預計這種情況還會持續下去。10月份的趨勢與第三季相比並沒有顯著不同。所以，具體回答你的問題，我認為，聯準會10月份的基金減產並沒有對我們產生任​​何影響。

Understood. Thank you, that's helpful. And then second, I'm just wondering, you lowered the revenue guide for core. It's now down 10% to 13% from prior 4% to 9%. It seems to be largely driven by volume and mix as you look at the '25 guidance bridge. So just going back to that mix point, if you can separate how much is volume given you lowered the end market assumptions for both new construction and retail? And then how much is mix? Thanks.

明白了。謝謝，這很有幫助。其次，我想問一下，你們降低了核心業務的營收預期。目前已從先前的 4% 至 9% 下降了 10% 至 13%。從 2025 年的指導框架來看，這似乎主要受銷售量和產品組合的影響。所以回到剛才的組合點，如果你能區分出在降低了新建項目和零售的終端市場假設之後，銷售佔比是多少？那麼，混合比例是多少呢？謝謝。

Yeah. I can take that question. A very small portion of that is mix. I would say there's maybe small mix changes on the edges of some of the product groups. But we are expecting in the near term, as Bill talked about, to be at a very low mix level. So we don't expect mix further down from where we are. But I mean, just in ballpark, I mean, it's more than 90% volume. It's a much bigger volume story than it is mix.

是的。我可以回答這個問題。其中只有極小一部分是混合物。我認為某些產品組的邊緣部分可能會有一些細微的組合變化。但正如比爾所說，我們預計在短期內，混合比例將處於非常低的水平。所以我們預期混合比例不會比現在更低。但我的意思是，粗略估計一下，銷量超過 90%。銷量比混合比例更重要。

Got it. Thank you and good luck.

知道了。謝謝，祝你好運。

Thank you. I'd now like to hand the call back to James Armstrong for final remarks.

謝謝。現在我把電話交還給詹姆斯·阿姆斯特朗，請他作最後總結發言。

So thank you for joining our call today. If you have any questions, please reach out to me, and I'm happy to answer anything I can. This ends our call, and have a great day.

感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。如果您有任何疑問，請隨時聯繫我，我很樂意盡我所能解答。通話到此結束，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線了。再見。