JELD-WEN Holding Inc (JELD) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the JELD-WEN third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加 JELD-WEN 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

I will now hand today's call over to James Armstrong, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我將把今天的電話會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁詹姆斯‧阿姆斯壯 (James Armstrong)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning. We issued our third quarter 2024 earnings release last night, and posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations portion of our website, which can be found at investors.jeld-wen.com. We will be referencing this presentation during our call.

謝謝你，早安。我們昨晚發布了 2024 年第三季收益報告，並在我們網站的投資者關係部分發布了幻燈片演示，該部分可在 Investors.jeld-wen.com 上找到。我們將在電話會議期間參考此簡報。

Today, I'm joined by Bill Christensen, Chief Executive Officer; and Samantha Stoddard, Chief Financial Officer.

今天，執行長比爾克里斯滕森 (Bill Christensen) 也加入了我的行列。薩曼莎·斯托達德（Samantha Stoddard），財務長。

Before I turn it over to Bill, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we will make certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our earnings release and provided in our Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. JELD-WEN does not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements, including the guidance we are providing with respect to certain expectations for future results.

在我交給比爾之前，我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出某些構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述的陳述。這些聲明受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們的收益報告中規定的風險和不確定性以及我們向 SEC 提交的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格中提供的風險和不確定性。JELD-WEN 不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的責任，包括我們針對未來結果的某些預期提供的指導。

Additionally, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable financial measures calculated under GAAP can be found in our earnings release and in the appendix of our earnings presentation.

此外，在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論非公認會計準則衡量標準，我們認為這些衡量標準有助於評估我們的績效。不應孤立地考慮此附加資訊的呈現，也不應將其視為根據 GAAP 準備的結果的替代品。這些非公認會計準則衡量指標與根據公認會計準則計算的最直接可比較的財務衡量指標的調節可以在我們的收益報告和收益報告的附錄中找到。

With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Bill.

現在，我想將電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, James, and thank you to everyone joining the call today. As we continue our transformation journey, I want to start by recognizing the hard work and commitment of our team during these challenging times.

謝謝詹姆斯，也謝謝今天加入電話會議的所有人。當我們繼續轉型之旅時，我想先認可我們團隊在這個充滿挑戰的時期所做的辛勤工作和承諾。

We've made progress in several key areas, positioning ourselves to navigate the tough ongoing market conditions. That said, the softer demand environment did impact our results this quarter, which came in below our expectations. However, we remain confident in our ability to align our costs with the current market, while laying the groundwork for future growth.

我們在幾個關鍵領域取得了進展，為應對當前嚴峻的市場環境做好了準備。也就是說，需求環境疲軟確實影響了我們本季的業績，低於我們的預期。然而，我們仍然相信我們有能力使成本與當前市場保持一致，同時為未來的成長奠定基礎。

Today, I will first provide an overview of the quarter, Samantha will then walk you through the quarterly performance, before I return to discuss the actions we are taking to adapt to current market conditions and how we're thinking about the future. I'll begin with our third quarter highlights on slide 4.

今天，我將首先概述本季度，然後薩曼莎將向您介紹季度業績，然後我再回來討論我們為適應當前市場狀況而採取的行動以及我們如何思考未來。我將從幻燈片 4 上的第三季亮點開始。

Third quarter sales and EBITDA came in below our expectations, largely due to continued challenges from softer volume and mix across both North America and Europe. While the positive impact of our ongoing productivity projects helped mitigate some of these pressures, they were not enough to fully offset the headwinds we experienced.

第三季銷售額和 EBITDA 低於我們的預期，這主要是由於北美和歐洲銷售和產品組合疲軟帶來的持續挑戰。雖然我們正在進行的生產力項目的積極影響有助於減輕其中一些壓力，但它們不足以完全抵消我們所經歷的阻力。

However, we remain encouraged by the progress of these initiatives which continue to position us for stronger performance as market conditions stabilize. Despite our team's hard work, we encountered several challenges during the quarter.

然而，我們仍然對這些舉措的進展感到鼓舞，隨著市場狀況穩定，這些舉措將繼續使我們取得更強勁的業績。儘管我們的團隊努力工作，但我們在本季度遇到了一些挑戰。

First, while our volume remained in line with the overall market, the mix was impacted in North America more than anticipated. Consumers continue to trade down and delay large-scale remodeling projects that typically involve windows and doors. Additionally, although housing starts have remained resilient, the sharp decline in multifamily and higher-end home construction has significantly affected our VPI and LaCantina businesses, which thrive in these markets.

首先，雖然我們的銷售量與整體市場保持一致，但北美的組合受到的影響超出了預期。消費者繼續降低價格並推遲通常涉及門窗的大規模改造項目。此外，儘管新屋開工量仍保持彈性，但多戶住宅和高端住宅建設的急劇下降嚴重影響了我們在這些市場蓬勃發展的 VPI 和 LaCantina 業務。

Second, we faced quality and delivery challenges across several of our manufacturing units. These issues prevented us from capitalizing on select growth pockets, and is an area of continued focus as we know it directly impacts our financial performance. Additionally, we lost a stock business of a Midwest retailer who opted to source windows from China despite our long-standing partnership. This decision represents a near-term challenge, but it has also sparked a renewed focus on customer acquisition to offset this impact.

其次，我們的幾個製造單位面臨品質和交付挑戰。這些問題使我們無法利用特定的成長空間，並且是一個持續關注的領域，因為我們知道它直接影響我們的財務表現。此外，我們失去了一家中西部零售商的庫存業務，儘管我們有長期合作關係，但該零售商選擇從中國購買窗戶。這項決定代表了近期的挑戰，但也引發了人們重新關注客戶獲取，以抵消這種影響。

Finally, we've reached a volume inflection point at several facilities where demand is now below the capacity of two shifts, resulting in increased overtime and lower-than-expected productivity running at one shift. We did, however, take actions to reduce full plant shifts in markets with decreased demand in the third quarter. In response to these challenges, we accelerated several cost reduction initiatives to improve efficiency and adapt to current market conditions.

最後，我們的幾家工廠已經達到了產量拐點，目前需求低於兩班制的產能，導致加班時間增加，一班制的生產率低於預期。然而，我們確實採取了行動，減少了第三季需求下降的市場的全面工廠轉移。為了應對這些挑戰，我們加快了多項降低成本的舉措，以提高效率並適應當前的市場狀況。

First, we completed actions to right size our SG&A spending, fast-tracking programs to reduce costs in response to the weaker product mix. Second, we are actively addressing the quality issues that limited our ability to capitalize on select market opportunities. In particular, we've made significant progress improving quality in our door skin production, which has shown marked improvement over the last quarter.

首先，我們完成了調整SG&A支出規模的行動，以及快速追蹤計畫以降低成本，以應對較弱的產品組合。其次，我們正在積極解決限制我們利用特定市場機會的能力的品質問題。特別是，我們在提高門皮生產品質方面取得了重大進展，比上個季度有了顯著改善。

However, we recognize that more work is needed to ensure that we are meeting customer expectations and reducing waste across all of our businesses. Additionally, to address our growth initiatives, we established win rooms to organize and track new customer acquisition efforts, which are already showing positive results.

然而，我們認識到需要做更多的工作來確保我們滿足客戶的期望並減少所有業務的浪費。此外，為了解決我們的成長計劃，我們建立了獲勝室來組織和追蹤新客戶獲取工作，這些工作已經顯示出積極的成果。

Lastly, we continue to streamline our operations through footprint consolidation. During the quarter, we announced the closure of Wedowee, Alabama and Løgstør, Denmark facility, and initiated strategic moves to optimize UK production by transitioning more manufacturing into our highly efficient Penrith facility. These efforts will enhance our capacity and cost structure, ensuring we are well positioned for long-term profitability as the market improves.

最後，我們繼續透過足跡整合來簡化我們的營運。在本季度，我們宣布關閉阿拉巴馬州韋多威和丹麥勒格斯特工廠，並啟動戰略舉措，透過將更多製造轉移到我們高效的彭里斯工廠來優化英國生產。這些努力將增強我們的產能和成本結構，確保我們在市場改善時能夠維持長期獲利能力。

I'll now turn it over to Samantha to discuss the financial results in more detail.

我現在將把它交給薩曼莎，更詳細地討論財務結果。

Thanks, Bill. Now looking at slide 6. Our third quarter revenues were $935 million, down 13% from the prior year. This decrease was driven by a reduction in our core revenues due mostly to the expected market-driven volume declines in both North America and Europe, combined with a larger-than-expected mix shift from higher priced to lower-priced products in North America as customers focus on affordability.

謝謝，比爾。現在看投影片 6。我們第三季的營收為 9.35 億美元，比去年同期下降 13%。這一下降是由於我們的核心收入減少造成的，這主要是由於北美和歐洲預期的市場驅動的銷售下降，加上北美從高價產品到低價產品的組合轉變超出預期，因為客戶關注的是負擔能力。

Our adjusted EBITDA was $82 million in the third quarter, down $24 million year over year, leading to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.7%. During the third quarter, free cash flow was a use of cash of $6 million, which included $44 million of capital investments. As a result of our lower EBITDA and use of cash to invest in our transformation, our net debt leverage ratio is at 3.1 times, which is above our target range.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 8,200 萬美元，年減 2,400 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 8.7%。第三季度，自由現金流為 600 萬美元的現金使用，其中包括 4,400 萬美元的資本投資。由於我們較低的 EBITDA 以及使用現金投資轉型，我們的淨債務槓桿率為 3.1 倍，高於我們的目標範圍。

As you see on slide 7, our third quarter revenue decline was driven by lower volume mix of 13%, with about 45% of the decline due to the mix shift from higher average selling price products into lower-priced products. I'll provide additional comments about our North America and Europe market trends shortly.

正如您在幻燈片7 中看到的那樣，我們第三季度的收入下降是由於銷售組合下降13%，其中約45% 的下降是由於組合從平均售價較高的產品轉向價格較低的產品造成的。我將很快提供有關北美和歐洲市場趨勢的更多評論。

On slide 8, you can see that our third quarter adjusted EBITDA decreased by $24 million year over year. Despite significant volume mix and cost headwinds, we generated solid profit contribution from stable pricing and strong year-over-year productivity improvements.

在投影片 8 上，您可以看到我們第三季調整後的 EBITDA 年比減少了 2400 萬美元。儘管銷售結構和成本不利，我們仍然透過穩定的定價和強勁的同比生產力提高產生了堅實的利潤貢獻。

The cost pressures were higher than anticipated, primarily driven by labor and material inflation in glass and other commodities, and were the main contributors to negative price cost. Unfortunately, this price/cost dynamic is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the year. While our productivity gains were robust, they were slightly below our expectations due to inefficiencies from lower volumes.

成本壓力高於預期，主要是由玻璃和其他大宗商品的勞動力和材料通膨推動的，也是造成負價格成本的主要因素。不幸的是，這種價格/成本動態預計將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。雖然我們的生產力成長強勁，但由於產量減少導致效率低下，但略低於我們的預期。

In addition to these productivity improvements, we also benefited from significantly lower SG&A costs, partially driven by the actions we took during the quarter. Importantly, we are exceeding our targeted cost savings for the year. We previously communicated our annual cost savings to be $100 million, and now expected to be approximately $115 million.

除了這些生產力的提高之外，我們還受益於銷售、管理和管理成本的顯著降低，部分原因是我們在本季採取的行動。重要的是，我們超出了今年的成本節約目標。我們先前表示每年可節省 1 億美元的成本，現在預計約 1.15 億美元。

Moving to our segment results on slide 9. In the third quarter, our North America segment generated $678 million in revenue, which was a decline of 14% from prior year. This was driven by a reduction in core revenues of 14% due to lower volume mix. More of the decline was driven by mix rather than volume, as consumers currently prefer more affordable products.

前往投影片 9 上的細分結果。第三季度，我們的北美業務收入為 6.78 億美元，比去年同期下降 14%。這是由於銷售組合減少導致核心收入減少 14%。下降的主要原因是產品組合而非數量，因為消費者目前喜歡更實惠的產品。

We also exited some high-priced products that had dilutive margins. North America's adjusted EBITDA decreased to $75 million from $100 million year over year. This decline was due to the lower volume mix I just referenced as well as negative price/cost in the quarter, only partially offset by improved productivity and lower SG&A.

我們也退出了一些利潤攤薄的高價產品。北美地區調整後的 EBITDA 從去年同期的 1 億美元降至 7,500 萬美元。這種下降是由於我剛才提到的銷售組合減少以及本季的負價格/成本造成的，但僅部分被生產力提高和銷售管理費用降低所抵消。

In Europe, we generated $257 million in revenue and $16 million in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter. Core revenues decreased by 12% year over year, driven by lower volume mix of 12%, almost exclusively attributed to volume. Adjusted EBITDA declined by $8 million, leading to margins of 6.3%. The decremental impact from lower volumes and negative price cost was partially mitigated by solid productivity improvements.

在歐洲，我們第三季的營收為 2.57 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1,600 萬美元。核心營收年減 12%，原因是銷售組合下降 12%，幾乎完全歸因於銷售量。調整後 EBITDA 下降 800 萬美元，利潤率為 6.3%。產量下降和負價格成本帶來的影響因生產力的穩定提高而部分緩解。

Now turning to the market outlook on slide 10. We do not see much change to our market outlook for the year relative to the second quarter earnings call, although the market continues to trend towards the weaker end due to persistent macroeconomic headwinds.

現在轉向幻燈片 10 上的市場前景。與第二季財報電話會議相比，我們認為今年的市場前景不會有太大變化，儘管由於持續的宏觀經濟逆風，市場繼續趨於疲軟。

Despite the Fed lowering interest rates recently, we continue to see the North American market declining by low double digits as interest rates and especially mortgage rates remain elevated. Consumer confidence weakened and affordability remains an ongoing concern.

儘管聯準會最近降低了利率，但由於利率，特別是抵押貸款利率仍然很高，我們仍然看到北美市場出現低兩位數的下滑。消費者信心減弱，負擔能力仍是持續存在的問題。

We still state that new single-family home construction will be higher by low single digits, whereas the outlook for repair and remodel activity remains challenging as existing home sales remain at decade-low levels. We expect repair and remodel activity to be down by mid- to high single digits, trending towards the high single-digit range.

我們仍然指出，新的單戶住宅建設將以較低的個位數增長，而由於現有房屋銷售仍處於十年來的低水平，維修和改造活動的前景仍然充滿挑戰。我們預計維修和改造活動將下降中高個位數，並趨於高個位數範圍。

Furthermore, though our multifamily exposure is relatively small. The pace of market declines is very significant. We continue to expect the combined multifamily and Canadian market to be down more than 25% year over year.

此外，儘管我們的多戶家庭風險相對較小。市場下跌的速度非常顯著。我們仍預期多戶住宅市場和加拿大市場的綜合成長率將年減 25% 以上。

The European market remains under continued pressure, and is also trending towards the weaker end of our guidance due to the ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Overall, we continue to anticipate volumes in the region to be down by low double digits.

歐洲市場仍然面臨持續的壓力，由於持續的宏觀經濟和地緣政治挑戰，也有向我們指引的較弱端發展的趨勢。總體而言，我們繼續預計該地區的銷量將下降兩位數。

I'll now turn it back to Bill to talk about our transformational journey.

現在我將把話題轉回比爾，談談我們的轉型之旅。

Thanks, Samantha. Despite the near-term headwinds, my three key focus areas continue to be People, Performance and Strategy, with our current focus on People and Performance.

謝謝，薩曼莎。儘管有近期的阻力，我的三個關鍵關注領域仍然是人員、績效和策略，我們目前的重點是人員和績效。

As you see on slide 12, we are driving a number of strategic initiatives around these pillars, and we have increased our investments to improve our long-term performance. Our investment in culture centers on bringing our values to life, with an initial focus on trust and transparency as well as improving every day through numerous initiatives in place to balance growth and cost reduction.

正如您在投影片 12 中看到的，我們正在圍繞這些支柱推動一系列策略舉措，並且我們增加了投資以提高我們的長期績效。我們對文化的投資集中於將我們的價值觀變為現實，最初的重點是信任和透明度，並透過採取眾多措施來平衡成長和降低成本，每天都在進步。

Through the third quarter, we completed a survey in part of our organization to monitor our progress. As a result of our leader alignment training, culture sprints and the pulse survey tied to our company values, we have already observed statistically significant improvements across the board.

在第三季度，我們在組織的一部分完成了一項調查，以監控我們的進展。由於我們的領導者協調培訓、文化衝刺以及與公司價值觀相關的脈搏調查，我們已經觀察到全面的統計顯著改進。

By the end of the year, we will have launched further competency training and complete another cultural sprint and an additional full company cultural survey. As we've done before, I would also like to showcase a few more examples of our transformation in the next two slides.

到今年年底，我們將啟動進一步的能力培訓，並完成另一次文化衝刺和全面的公司文化調查。正如我們之前所做的那樣，我還想在接下來的兩張幻燈片中展示我們轉型的更多範例。

The first project I'd like to highlight on slide 13 is our focus on improving the special order process with our retail customers. In the past, when a customer needed to place a custom order, they would sit down with a store associate to review specifications using an outdated and cumbersome system, requiring numerous clicks and entries, which made it confusing and inefficient.

我想在投影片 13 上強調的第一個項目是我們致力於改善零售客戶的特殊訂單流程。過去，當客戶需要下客製訂單時，他們會與店員坐下來使用過時且繁瑣的系統來審查規格，需要大量的點擊和輸入，這使得過程混亂且效率低下。

This often led to store associates either calling us to manually input the order, leading to inefficiencies and errors, or switching to a competitor's product line that was easier to navigate, costing us valuable business. We have now upgraded the special order process, making it more user-friendly and offering enriched content to assist both professional builders and homeowners.

這通常會導致商店員工要么要求我們手動輸入訂單，從而導致效率低下和錯誤，要么轉向更容易導航的競爭對手的產品線，從而使我們損失寶貴的業務。我們現在升級了特殊訂單流程，使其更加用戶友好，並提供豐富的內容來幫助專業建築商和房主。

These enhancements reduce friction and boost engagement with our products. Additionally, we're refreshing store displays and samples to give customers the chance to physically experience the product before purchasing.

這些增強功能減少了摩擦並提高了與我們產品的互動。此外，我們正在更新商店展示和樣品，讓客戶有機會在購買前親自體驗產品。

By the end of the first quarter next year, we expect to have over 300 stores updated, with more to follow in the remainder of 2025. Our special order business is accretive, and optimizing the customer journey will enhance both our sales and margins.

到明年第一季末，我們預計將更新 300 多家商店，並在 2025 年剩餘時間內更新更多商店。我們的特殊訂單業務正在不斷成長，優化客戶旅程將提高我們的銷售額和利潤。

The second project I'd like to highlight on page 14 is the transformation of our UK manufacturing operations. Our Penrith facility in Northern England is a standout location, known for its high employee engagement and strong safety record.

我想在第 14 頁強調的第二個項目是我們英國製造業務的轉型。我們位於英格蘭北部的彭里斯工廠地理位置優越，以其高員工敬業度和良好的安全記錄而聞名。

However, in the past, we were limited at this site due to historical customer contract restrictions on capacity. As we evaluated our footprint, we identified an opportunity to better utilize the Penrith facility through expansion. To achieve this, we renegotiated our long-term supply agreement, invested in additional capacity and refocused our UK network to either manufacture door slabs or assemble door systems.

然而，過去，由於歷史客戶合約對產能的限制，我們在該地點受到限制。在評估我們的足跡時，我們發現了透過擴張來更好地利用彭里斯工廠的機會。為了實現這一目標，我們重新談判了長期供應協議，投資了額外的產能，並將我們的英國網路重新聚焦於製造門板或組裝門系統。

As I've mentioned before, we have too many facilities producing too many of the same products. This is another example of how we are optimizing our footprint as part of our transformation. We expect to continue these efforts across both our North American and European operations. As we approach the end of the first full year in our transformation journey, we've implemented numerous changes that are driving value across the company.

正如我之前提到的，我們有太多的工廠生產太多相同的產品。這是我們在轉型過程中如何優化足跡的另一個例子。我們希望在北美和歐洲業務中繼續這些努力。隨著我們轉型之旅的第一個全年即將結束，我們實施了許多變革，這些變革正在推動整個公司的價值。

Referring to slide 15, you'll see the EBITDA improvements we anticipate for 2024. At the start of the year, we projected $50 million in carryover benefits from our 2023 initiatives and an additional $50 million from new actions taken in 2024.

參考投影片 15，您將看到我們預計 2024 年 EBITDA 的改善。今年年初，我們預計 2023 年措施將帶來 5,000 萬美元的結轉效益，2024 年採取的新行動將帶來額外 5,000 萬美元的結轉效益。

We also accelerated certain aspects of our transformation to achieve an additional $15 million in SG&A savings, bringing our total expected savings for the year to $115 million. This builds on the $100 million in savings we achieved in 2023.

我們也加快了轉型的某些方面，以實現 SG&A 額外節省 1,500 萬美元，使我們今年的預期節省總額達到 1.15 億美元。這是我們在 2023 年節省 1 億美元的基礎上實現的。

The market headwinds have also delayed some of our growth initiatives, and we have recalibrated our initiatives, pulling ahead select cost measures. However, there is still significant opportunity ahead. As we look forward, we'll stay focused on our core areas, accelerating our actions where we see the most potential without disrupting our business.

市場逆風也推遲了我們的一些成長計劃，我們重新調整了我們的計劃，提前選擇了成本措施。然而，未來仍存在重大機會。展望未來，我們將繼續專注於我們的核心領域，在我們認為最有潛力的領域中加快行動，而不會幹擾我們的業務。

We'll continue optimizing our network and automating processes to drive cost savings. We'll also be working closely with our customers to strengthen partnerships and outpace the market. I'd now like to discuss our 2024 guidance.

我們將繼續優化我們的網路和自動化流程，以節省成本。我們還將與客戶密切合作，加強合作夥伴關係並超越市場。我現在想討論一下我們的 2024 年指導。

As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, we have experienced a sharper-than-expected decline in the mix of our business when compared to our expectations. We do expect the mix impact, along with the loss of a large customer and ongoing quality issues, to further affect our fourth quarter performance.

正如我在電話會議開始時提到的，與我們的預期相比，我們的業務組合出現了比預期更嚴重的下降。我們確實預期混合影響，加上大客戶的流失和持續的品質問題，將進一步影響我們第四季的業績。

As a result, we are revising our net revenue guidance for 2024 to a range of $3.7 billion to $3.75 billion, down from the previous estimate of $3.9 billion to $4.1 billion. This adjustment reflects a deeper core revenue decline, now expected to be down 13% to 14% compared to our previous projection of down 5% to 9%.

因此，我們將 2024 年淨收入指引修改為 37 億美元至 37.5 億美元，低於先前估計的 39 億美元至 41 億美元。這項調整反映了核心收入更嚴重的下降，目前預計將下降 13% 至 14%，而我們先前的預測為下降 5% 至 9%。

Consequently, we are also lowering our adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year to a range of $265 million to $280 million from the prior range of $340 million to $380 million. This reflects the impact of lower anticipated revenue with an estimated 30% decremental rate, combined with lower base productivity and price cost that is expected to decline approximately 1% year over year.

因此，我們也將今年調整後的 EBITDA 指引從先前的 3.4 億美元至 3.8 億美元下調至 2.65 億美元至 2.8 億美元。這反映了預期收入下降（預計將下降 30%）的影響，以及基礎生產力和價格成本下降（預計將年減約 1%）。

Despite these challenges, we continue to expect $115 million in cost savings this year, driven by roughly $50 million in carryforward benefits from last year's initiatives, along with $65 million of new cost savings actions to be completed this year.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們預計今年將節省 1.15 億美元的成本，這得益於去年舉措的約 5,000 萬美元的結轉效益，以及今年將完成的 6,500 萬美元的新成本節省行動。

On slide 18, you see our updated cash flow outlook for this year. Due to continued market softness, higher inventories and our lower guidance, we now anticipate that this year's operating cash flow will be approximately $125 million.

在幻燈片 18 中，您可以看到我們今年最新的現金流前景。由於市場持續疲軟、庫存增加以及我們較低的指引，我們現在預計今年的營運現金流將約為 1.25 億美元。

This is after we incur an estimated $100 million of nonoperating cash expenses to fund portions of our transformational journey to drive future earnings. With this update, we expect our cash flow deficit to be approximately $25 million to $50 million for the full year 2024 after taking into account our commitment to continued capital investments.

這是在我們承擔了估計 1 億美元的非營運現金支出之後，為我們推動未來盈利的轉型之旅提供部分資金。透過本次更新，考慮到我們對持續資本投資的承諾，我們預計 2024 年全年的現金流赤字約為 2,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元。

Turning to slide 19. We outlined the year-over-year drivers behind our updated EBITDA guidance for 2024. Starting with last year's adjusted EBITDA of $380 million, we now anticipate a headwind of approximately $182 million from volume and mix, split roughly evenly between the two. Additionally, we expect a $40 million headwind from price/cost as costs have increased, while pricing has remained relatively stable.

轉到投影片 19。我們概述了更新後的 2024 年 EBITDA 指引背後的同比驅動因素。從去年調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.8 億美元開始，我們現在預計銷售和產品組合將帶來約 1.82 億美元的阻力，兩者大致平分。此外，由於成本增加，而價格保持相對穩定，我們預計價格/成本將面臨 4000 萬美元的阻力。

Without the substantial actions we're taking in our transformation journey, these market-related pressures would likely have led us to guide toward a modest adjusted EBITDA of $158 million. However, as we've emphasized, our transformation is yielding results, driving approximately $115 million in cost savings this year and allowing us to set an EBITDA target of $273 million as our midpoint.

如果我們沒有在轉型之旅中採取實質行動，這些與市場相關的壓力可能會導致我們將調整後的 EBITDA 調整為 1.58 億美元。然而，正如我們所強調的，我們的轉型正在取得成果，今年節省了約 1.15 億美元的成本，並使我們能夠設定 2.73 億美元的 EBITDA 目標作為我們的中點。

These actions are helping us navigate a challenging market environment and positioning us for improvements when conditions normalize. Given the near-term headwinds we are facing, we believe this is the right time to provide investors with initial guidance on the longer-term financial benefits we expect our team to deliver.

這些行動幫助我們應對充滿挑戰的市場環境，並為我們在情況正常化時做出改進做好準備。考慮到我們近期面臨的不利因素，我們認為現在是為投資者提供有關我們期望我們的團隊實現的長期財務利益的初步指導的最佳時機。

As shown on slide 20, we anticipate generating an additional $100 million in EBITDA from our transformation projects in 2025. This includes approximately $50 million from carryover benefits of projects completed in 2024 as well as further actions planned and sequenced for next year.

如投影片 20 所示，我們預計到 2025 年我們的轉型項目將額外產生 1 億美元的 EBITDA。這包括約 5000 萬美元的 2024 年完成項目的結轉效益以及明年計劃和排序的進一步行動。

We currently have more than 350 active projects. It's important to note that this benefit is independent of any potential market-related improvements. While we currently expect the market to be slightly down in 2025, when the market does recover, we anticipate achieving incremental margins of approximately 25% to 30% from the additional volume.

目前我們有超過 350 個活躍項目。值得注意的是，這種好處獨立於任何潛在的市場相關改進。雖然我們目前預計 2025 年市場將略有下降，但當市場確實復甦時，我們預計新增銷量將實現約 25% 至 30% 的增量利潤。

To continue driving these improvements in 2025, we expect CapEx to remain elevated, with planned investments between $175 million and $200 million. Additionally, we anticipate taking further footprint actions to right size our network.

為了在 2025 年繼續推動這些改進，我們預計資本支出將保持在較高水平，並計劃投資在 1.75 億美元至 2 億美元之間。此外，我們預計將採取進一步的足跡行動來調整我們的網路規模。

To be clear, we expect 2025 to be another challenging year, with the possibility of market improvements in the second half as interest rates decline and existing home sales likely increase. Therefore, we'll be optimistic to assume the full $100 million in improvements will flow through without some offsets.

需要明確的是，我們預計 2025 年將是另一個充滿挑戰的一年，隨著利率下降和現有房屋銷售可能增加，下半年市場可能會改善。因此，我們樂觀地假設 1 億美元的改進將在沒有任何補償的情況下完成。

We know the $100 million improvement is not sufficient, and we are actively exploring additional opportunities to accelerate our transformation given the unprecedented sales decline. We will provide more detailed guidance for 2025 during our next call in February.

我們知道 1 億美元的改善是不夠的，鑑於前所未有的銷售額下降，我們正在積極探索其他機會來加速我們的轉型。我們將在 2 月的下一次電話會議中提供 2025 年更詳細的指導。

Looking further ahead, we expect the annual $100 million in benefit to continue over the midterm based on the number of projects in our pipeline. We continue to focus on the significant self-help opportunities available to us.

展望未來，根據我們管道中的項目數量，我們預計中期將繼續實現每年 1 億美元的效益。我們繼續關注我們可以利用的重要自助機會。

As demonstrated today and reflected in our financials, our transformation is delivering results. When the market rebounds, we will be well positioned to capitalize on improved conditions with a leaner, more efficient network. Let's turn to slide 21.

正如今天所展示的並反映在我們的財務數據中，我們的轉型正在取得成果。當市場反彈時，我們將處於有利地位，透過更精簡、更有效率的網路來利用改善的條件。讓我們翻到幻燈片 21。

Today is Election Day in the United States. Regardless of today's outcome, I do want to emphasize that we are well positioned for success, no matter the result. One of the major topics during this election cycle has been tariffs, and some speculate that these tariffs could have a significant impact on our business.

今天是美國的選舉日。無論今天的結果如何，我確實想強調，無論結果如何，我們都已經做好了成功的準備。這次選舉週期的主要話題之一是關稅，有些人推測這些關稅可能會對我們的業務產生重大影響。

I want to clarify that we import only about 1% of our materials by cost from China, and most of these materials could easily be sourced from other regions without significant disruption to our operations. Looking back at 2024, it has undoubtedly been a challenging year for JELD-WEN, with significant headwinds.

我想澄清的是，以成本計算，我們僅從中國進口了約 1% 的材料，而且大部分材料可以輕鬆地從其他地區採購，不會對我們的營運造成重大干擾。回顧2024年，對JELD-WEN來說無疑是充滿挑戰的一年，阻力也很大。

Despite these challenges, our team continues to make significant progress in our transformation, driving cost out of the business and positioning us for a solid future. I am confident that when we reflect on this period in the years to come, 2024 will be seen as a low point in both sales and margins based on the volume mix decline experienced in the last 12 months.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們的團隊在轉型中繼續取得重大進展，降低了業務成本，為我們奠定了堅實的未來。我相信，當我們在未來幾年反思這段時期時，基於過去 12 個月經歷的銷售組合下降，2024 年將被視為銷售額和利潤率的低點。

However, we are making the right decisions for the long term, and we are putting the right investments, systems and people in place to achieve our goals. I remain optimistic about our future, and I'm extremely proud of the team's hard work during this difficult period.

然而，我們正在做出正確的長期決策，並投入正確的投資、系統和人員來實現我們的目標。我對我們的未來保持樂觀，我對團隊在這個困難時期的辛勤工作感到非常自豪。

I'm confident that our team will continue to execute effectively and I see many long-term opportunities for value creation ahead. Thank you for your continued interest.

我相信我們的團隊將繼續有效執行，並且我看到未來有許多創造價值的長期機會。感謝您的持續關注。

And with that, I'll now turn it over to James for the Q&A.

現在，我將把它交給詹姆斯進行問答。

Thanks, Bill. Operator, we're now ready to begin Q&A.

謝謝，比爾。接線員，我們現在準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As we pull for our first question this morning, in anticipation of the following question, I'd like to take a moment to give a brief update on the Towanda divestiture. At this time, we continue to work through both the court mandated divestiture process and related court proceedings. I will reiterate that we've taken every step the court has required of us, and it is our goal to reach a fair resolution to this process.

當我們今天早上提出第一個問題時，考慮到下一個問題，我想花點時間簡要介紹一下托旺達資產剝離的最新情況。目前，我們將繼續完成法院強制剝離程序和相關法院程序。我要重申，我們已經採取了法院要求我們採取的每一步，我們的目標是就此程序達成公平的解決方案。

To that end, we stand by our motion arguing that the divestiture of Towanda is unwarranted, though we cannot guarantee our motion will be granted. As this remains an ongoing legal matter, I'm unable to provide further details in any of the Q&A today. Now operator, do we have our first question ready?

為此，我們堅持我們的動議，認為剝離 Towanda 是沒有根據的，儘管我們不能保證我們的動議會獲得批准。由於這仍然是一個持續的法律問題，我無法在今天的任何問答中提供更多細節。現在接線員，我們的第一個問題準備好了嗎？

Yes. John Lovallo, UBS.

是的。約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

The first one here, can you just give us a little bit more color on the quality issues that you talked about? I mean, have these been fully resolved at this point? And then were they one of the drivers of the loss of that Midwest customer? And then in terms of the Midwest customer, can you size it in terms of revenue and EBITDA?

第一個，您能就您談到的品質問題給我們多說一點嗎？我的意思是，這些問題現在已經完全解決了嗎？那麼他們是導致中西部客戶流失的原因之一嗎？那麼就中西部客戶而言，您能根據收入和 EBITDA 來衡量其規模嗎？

Yes, sure. So to answer your second question, it was not a result of quality issues, the loss of the Midwest customer, coming back to them where we are in quality. So this was focused in both doors and windows, specific areas.

是的，當然。因此，回答你的第二個問題，這不是品質問題的結果，中西部客戶的流失，回到我們的品質水準。所以這主要集中在門窗兩個特定區域。

And as the market volume is tight and inventories are low, there are certain areas of opportunity, and we were not able to deliver on some of those given some plant issues that we have in different sites. So think about it like deferred maintenance topics and some of the capital improvements that we're making are catching up with the deferred maintenance that was required. So we're making progress.

由於市場容量緊張且庫存較低，存在某些機會領域，但由於我們在不同地點遇到的一些工廠問題，我們無法交付其中一些機會。因此，請將其視為延期維護主題，我們正在進行的一些資本改進正在趕上所需的延期維護。所以我們正在取得進展。

I gave an example on our door skins quality, which has been dramatically improved. But there's other areas, John, that we're still working through. And clearly, we have a pretty strong focus on getting the right process and the right equipment in a number of our sites to really better process high volume at the right quality for our customers.

我舉了一個關於我們的門皮品質的例子，它已經得到了顯著的改善。但約翰，我們仍在努力解決其他領域的問題。顯然，我們非常注重在我們的許多工廠中獲得正確的流程和正確的設備，以便為我們的客戶更好地以正確的品質處理大量的產品。

So that's part of the process that we're in to reinvigorate the asset base that we have, and we're paying the price in some of these areas because we just have an aged asset base, and there's unplanned downtime, which has led to some of these quality issues.

因此，這是我們重振現有資產基礎的過程的一部分，我們在其中一些領域付出了代價，因為我們只是擁有老化的資產基礎，並且存在計劃外停機，這導致了其中一些品質問題。

So that if we think on the high level and sizing the Midwest loss, I mean, Samantha can go on maybe to some more of the details, but we're talking $75 million to $100 million roughly on a full year run rate.

因此，如果我們從宏觀角度思考並估算中西部地區的損失，我的意思是，薩曼莎可能會繼續討論更多細節，但我們正在談論的全年運行率約為 7500 萬至 1 億美元。

John, yes, the quality issues did not impact the loss of that Midwest retailer at all. The '24 impact on sales is about $20 million to $25 million approximately. Bill just talked about the full year impact. We're working very hard on mitigation plans, specifically targeting customers for the business that was lost by focusing on customer needs, and then positioning ourselves to react quicker in any circumstance.

約翰，是的，品質問題根本沒有影響那家中西部零售商的損失。24 年對銷售額的影響約為 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。比爾剛剛談到了全年的影響。我們正在非常努力地制定緩解計劃，特別是針對因關注客戶需求而損失的業務的客戶，然後讓自己在任何情況下都能更快地做出反應。

Understood. And then the midpoint of the outlook seems to imply close to a 50% sequential decremental in the fourth quarter. You guys have talked about some of the challenges with capacity utilization and the quality issues and so forth. But when would you expect these decrementals to normalize?

明白了。然後，前景的中點似乎意味著第四季環比下降接近 50%。你們談到了產能利用率和品質問題等方面的一些挑戰。但是您預期這些遞減何時會正常化？

So high level, John, we don't expect a significant change in the volume or mix reality as we roll into the first part of next year. So we expect that we're going to continue on a low level, both in North America and in Europe.

約翰，級別很高，我們預計明年上半年的數量或混合現實不會發生重大變化。因此，我們預計北美和歐洲的銷售將繼續保持在較低水準。

We set up trigger points in our internal planning process to clearly define when do we reach I'd say, a lower threshold on volume in sites where we need to shift either complete shifts out or we actually need to take more dramatic action like closing sites. And our expectation is that '25 will be a turning point from a volume standpoint.

我們在內部規劃流程中設定了觸發點，以明確定義何時達到我們需要完全轉移或實際上需要採取更戲劇性行動（例如關閉站點）的站點數量的較低閾值。我們預計，從銷售的角度來看，25 年將是一個轉捩點。

So I would expect that in the back half of '25, the leverage should improve as we start to see, hopefully, more tailwind on the volume. And we're also, in parallel, rightsizing our asset base for the future state and also investing and bringing some of the automation online that's in the pipeline has not yet been delivered, but will be delivered next year.

因此，我預計在 25 年下半年，槓桿率應該會有所改善，因為我們希望開始看到更多成交量的順風車。同時，我們也針對未來狀態調整我們的資產基礎，並投資並將一些正在建設中的自動化上線，這些自動化尚未交付，但將於明年交付。

One other thing to note, we do expect to be back in the 25% to 30% decremental margin in 2025. But just taking a look at Q4 and understanding that year-over-year bridge, the volume mix is essentially about a 30% decremental.

另一件值得注意的事情是，我們預計到 2025 年利潤率將恢復到 25% 至 30% 的遞減水準。但只要看看第四季並了解同比情況，銷量組合基本上就減少了 30% 左右。

The factor is that we had quite significant other income in Q4 of 2023 in the neighborhood of $20 million. That did not repeat this year. So that's probably also adding to that EBITDA bridge flow-through you're seeing.

因素是我們在 2023 年第四季的其他收入相當可觀，約 2000 萬美元。今年這種情況沒有再發生。因此，這可能也會增加您所看到的 EBITDA 橋樑流量。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

菲爾·吳，杰弗里斯。

Bill, curious, how did sales progress through the quarter and into October? And then from a mix standpoint, a similar question, how does that progress through the year?

比爾，很好奇，整個季度和十月的銷售進度如何？然後從混合的角度來看，一個類似的問題，這一年進展如何？

And then Sam, it's helpful that you gave color that fourth quarter, you got the noise with other income. But is there any nuance around margins being depressed because the channel has too much inventory in your curtailing production as well?

然後山姆，你在第四季的表現很有幫助，你從其他收入中得到了噪音。但是，由於通路在減產過程中庫存過多，導致利潤率下降，這是否存在細微差別？

Okay. So Phil, volume mix has continued to deteriorate. I'd say what we were anticipating is that the R&R market would be more stable as we looked into the end of the year, especially when we look at our doors business, and that actually hasn't materialized.

好的。所以菲爾，銷量組合繼續惡化。我想說的是，我們預計，隨著我們進入年底，特別是當我們審視我們的門業務時，R&R 市場將會更加穩定，但這實際上並沒有實現。

And so R&R has continued to soften and we, as you know, have a pretty big exposure there. And we're not expecting short-term improvements in that trajectory, so we're at that high single-digit R&R deterioration. As we look into where we're tracking in the month of October, we continue to be at that lower run rate.

因此，R&R 繼續軟化，正如你所知，我們在這方面有相當大的敞口。我們預計這一軌跡不會在短期內有所改善，因此我們的 R&R 惡化程度處於個位數的高水準。當我們研究 10 月的追蹤情況時，我們仍然處於較低的運行率。

So no signals that things are going to change or improve dramatically, but nothing that would signal to us that it's going to get dramatically worse. And again, it's both volume and mix because we see continued discretionary spend pullbacks on any major door or window projects.

因此，沒有任何訊號表明情況會發生巨大變化或改善，但也沒有任何訊號表明情況會急劇惡化。再說一遍，這既是數量又是組合，因為我們看到任何主要門窗項目的可自由支配支出持續縮減。

I think the other thing that's important to just think through, even though it's a small share, our Canada and VPI business, which is our commercial windows business. It's a small part, but it's significant deterioration on a full year run rate. Think of it as $100 million to $150 million of top line headwind.

我認為另一件值得思考的重要事情是我們的加拿大和 VPI 業務，即我們的商業窗戶業務，儘管它只佔很小的份額。這只是一小部分，但對全年運行率來說卻是顯著惡化。可以將其視為 1 億至 1.5 億美元的收入逆風。

And I think the last point, what's going to be relevant for your question is, with the softness in R&R, I'd say inventories are stable for that softer environment. So we're not expecting any dramatic movements based on what we're seeing for a sell-in currently.

我認為最後一點，與你的問題相關的是，隨著 R&R 的疲軟，我想說在這個疲軟的環境中庫存是穩定的。因此，根據目前我們所看到的拋售情況，我們預計不會有任何戲劇性的走勢。

Okay. That's helpful. This is probably a very overly simplistic view. But if I take your back half of 2024 implied guidance and what have we delivered in 3Q, and mirror that for next year, just take the back half run rate for this year, multiply that by two and maybe bake in $100 million of cost out, would that be like way off base?

好的。這很有幫助。這可能是個過於簡單化的觀點。但是，如果我採用2024 年下半年的隱含指導以及我們在第三季度交付的內容，並反映明年的情況，只需將今年下半年的運行率乘以2，也許就可以節省1 億美元的成本，那會偏離基地嗎？

I know you're assuming perhaps some pickup in volumes in the back half of 2025. And it would be helpful to to help us think through the cadence through outside of demand may be getting better in the back half. But how does the cost-out savings and some of the headwinds you may have seen in the back half of '24 reversed?

我知道您假設 2025 年下半年銷售量可能會回升。這將有助於幫助我們思考需求之外的節奏可能會在後半段變得更好。但是，您在 24 世紀下半年可能看到的成本節省和一些不利因素是如何扭轉的呢？

Does that $100 million incremental savings, is that more back half weighted, front half weighted or pretty equally spread? Would be helpful.

這 1 億美元的增量節省是更多的後半加權、前半加權還是相當均勻分佈？會有幫助的。

You're talking , Phil, the 125?

菲爾，你是在說 125 嗎？

So my first question is, can I take the back half 2024 EBITDA that you're guiding to and delivered and multiply that by two as a good framework for '25, and you got $100 million of incremental cost out coming through, right? Does that layer in pretty consistently through the year? Or is it more having the back half? Just help us think through 2025, based on what you know today.

所以我的第一個問題是，我能否將您指導和交付的 2024 年下半年 EBITDA 乘以 2，作為 25 年的良好框架，您將獲得 1 億美元的增量成本，對吧？這一年的情況是否相當一致？還是說後半部更重要？請根據您今天所了解的情況，幫助我們思考 2025 年的情況。

Got it. Okay. So I mean I think that's a fair assumption. That's assuming that, obviously, the headwinds that we currently have in the second half of the year and 4Q rolls forward for a full year. We're expecting neutral. We're expecting neutral to slightly down volumes in North America.

知道了。好的。所以我的意思是我認為這是一個合理的假設。顯然，這是假設我們目前在今年下半年和第四季遇到的阻力會延續到全年。我們期待中立。我們預計北美的銷量將呈現中性或小幅下降。

We're definitely expecting down volumes in Europe. Our perception is Europe is close to, if not at the bottom, but you've got to think through that there's a longer gestation period to get our products built in to start. So we're 9 to 12 months away, even though starts may be turning in certain markets as rates come down.

我們肯定預期歐洲的銷售量會下降。我們的看法是，歐洲即使不是底部，也接近底部，但你必須考慮到，要開始內建我們的產品，需要更長的醞釀期。因此，我們還需要 9 到 12 個月的時間，儘管隨著利率的下降，某些市場的開工率可能會發生變化。

So we expect Europe in '25 to remain challenging. The upside that we see today currently is in the back half of '25 in North America. So we have growth initiatives going in that $100 million, roughly 25% of that is attributed to growth initiatives to tactical pricing, and 75% are cost-driven topic.

因此，我們預計 25 年的歐洲仍將充滿挑戰。我們今天看到的上行空間是在 25 世紀下半年的北美。因此，我們在這 1 億美元中製定了成長計劃，其中約 25% 歸因於戰術定價的成長計劃，75% 是成本驅動的主題。

So that's going to be the roll-through of the $100 million, and it's going to be evenly balanced throughout the year. As we've said, Phil, given today's reality on the top line, it's not enough for us. So we're looking at ways that we can accelerate opportunities to take costs out of the business, increase efficiency, but not disrupt the business.

因此，這將是 1 億美元的轉存，並且全年將保持平衡。正如我們所說，菲爾，考慮到今天的現實情況，這對我們來說還不夠。因此，我們正在尋找能夠加速降低業務成本、提高效率但又不會擾亂業務的機會的方法。

And I do see opportunities, and these are things that we're getting teed up. And I think just as a rule of thumb, your math, high level, works with some potential upside from the market, the back half of the year. But we're controlling what we can control.

我確實看到了機會，而這些都是我們正在準備的事情。我認為，根據經驗，你的數學水平很高，可以與今年下半年市場的一些潛在上漲相結合。但我們正在控制我們能控制的事情。

That means we're taking a hard look at our footprint, taking a hard look at cost initiatives, but also making sure that we have capacity positioned for a rebound, which has to occur. I mean the US is underbuilt and they need the units.

這意味著我們正在認真審視我們的足跡，認真審視成本計劃，但也要確保我們有能力應對反彈，而反彈是必鬚髮生的。我的意思是美國建設不足，他們需要這些單位。

And we think when rates start to settle and the resale market starts to engage, that's going to start trickling through R&R, and then we get a broader take-up of the new construction at medium and high end, which is really where we have the mix upside and where we've really suffered this year on the mix downturn.

我們認為，當利率開始穩定下來並且轉售市場開始參與時，這將開始通過 R&R 滲透，然後我們會更廣泛地接受中高端的新建築，這確實是我們擁有的地方混合上行以及今年我們在混合低迷中真正遭受的損失。

And sorry to sneak one in, Bill. From a price cost standpoint, on a full year basis, it's about 1%, but it got worse in the back half of 2024. So when we look at price cost for next year, do you have initiatives in place from a pricing standpoint, and it could be better than the back half run rate? Or how should we think about price cost for '25 at this point?

很抱歉偷偷溜進來了，比爾。從價格成本的角度來看，全年約為 1%，但 2024 年下半年情況變得更糟。因此，當我們考慮明年的價格成本時，從定價的角度來看，你們是否採取了適當的舉措，並且可能比下半年的運行率更好？或者我們現在應該如何考慮 '25 的價格成本？

Yes, we need to tackle the cost headwind, Phil. Our aspiration and our modeling right now as we're thinking through it is price cost neutrality in '25. We've held price this year, but some of the costs have spun up, and we're going to need to countermeasure that next year.

是的，我們需要解決成本逆風，菲爾。我們現在的願望和我們正在思考的模型是 25 年的價格成本中立。今年我們維持了價格不變，但一些成本已經上升，明年我們需要採取對策。

So that's going to be part of the transformation initiatives, but also making sure that we have the price cost neutrality as we look at a full year. So you should assume price cost neutral in our model, which means we need to counteract the headwinds that we've seen come up in the third and fourth quarter.

因此，這將成為轉型措施的一部分，同時也確保我們在全年中保持價格成本中立。因此，您應該假設我們的模型中的價格成本是中性的，這意味著我們需要抵消第三季和第四季出現的不利因素。

Yes. I mean, Phil, just to give color, I mean, our goal is to always be price cost neutral or better. And although, yes, it has gotten worse in the second half, that was part of our outlook. And so that's tracking in line with what we expected. And going into next year, this is top of our minds as well.

是的。我的意思是，菲爾，只是為了提供色彩，我的意思是，我們的目標是始終保持價格成本中性或更好。雖然，是的，下半年情況變得更糟，但這是我們前景的一部分。因此，這符合我們的預期。進入明年，這也是我們的首要任務。

Steven Ramsey, Thompson Research.

史蒂文拉姆齊，湯普森研究公司。

Maybe to talk about capturing share and regaining the business that's lost through other customers. Can you talk about how this could play out realistically if this is something that, if successful, more likely to help first half to '25 or looking towards the second half?

也許可以談談奪取市場份額並重新奪回因其他客戶而失去的業務。您能談談如果這件事成功的話，更有可能幫助上半場到25年或展望下半場，那麼這將如何實際發揮作用？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Steven. So if you remember, if we look back and reflect on what we communicated in our Q1 earnings call, we said that there was tactical pruning that we were doing because there were certain projects that weren't meeting our expectations post launch, and there was other business that was not a good fit for us, given the margin profile.

是的。謝謝你的提問，史蒂文。因此，如果您還記得，如果我們回顧並反思我們在第一季財報電話會議中傳達的內容，我們說我們正在做戰術修剪，因為有些項目在啟動後沒有達到我們的預期，並且考慮到利潤狀況，其他業務不太適合我們。

And so that was about $100 million that we signaled we'd be taking out. There's a small share loss as Samantha and I talked through with that Midwest customer. And so that's a couple of hundred million -- up to a couple of hundred million, which is pretty small in the grand scheme of things, but we've clearly said, okay, we need to tackle this in a very structured manner.

因此，我們表示將拿出約 1 億美元。當莎曼珊和我與那位中西部客戶交談時，份額出現了小幅損失。因此，這是幾億——最多幾億，這在宏偉的計劃中相當小，但我們已經明確表示，好吧，我們需要以非常結構化的方式解決這個問題。

So we've set up win rooms, which it may sound pretty simple. But what we're doing is we're bringing the organization together, both the windows organization and the doors organization to be able to make very quick decisions with the product teams, the operation teams and of course, the sales teams on opportunities in the market, and being as agile as possible to react to some of the short-term demand opportunities.

所以我們設立了勝利室，這聽起來可能很簡單。但我們正在做的是，我們將組織（包括窗戶組織和門組織）整合在一起，以便能夠與產品團隊、營運團隊，當然還有銷售團隊一起就以下領域的機會做出非常快速的決策：市場，並儘可能敏捷地對一些短期需求機會做出反應。

We have a portfolio. We're running that portfolio with rigor through our transformation process, and we're staying very close to it. And we can't control the market volume, but we can't control our share.

我們有一個投資組合。我們在轉型過程中嚴格運行該投資組合，並且我們非常接近它。我們無法控制市場容量，但我們無法控制我們的份額。

And that's what we're starting to pivot to, making sure that we are focused and targeting a reload for some of the candidly windows business that we've communicated we are going to be losing, but we see that as also an opportunity for us to get ourselves well positioned. So this is something that has a longer gestation.

這就是我們開始轉向的方向，確保我們集中精力，並瞄準重新加載我們已經表示將失去的一些坦誠的窗戶業務，但我們認為這對我們來說也是一個機會讓我們處於有利的位置。所以這是一個孕育時間較長的東西。

So think about this as an H2 '25 impact by the time everything is set up and spec-ed and ready to go, that's where we see some of the potential tailwind in our modeling as we look to 2025.

因此，當一切都設定好、規範好並準備就緒時，將此視為 25 年 H2 的影響，這就是我們在展望 2025 年時在建模中看到的一些潛在的推動力。

Okay. That's helpful. And then mix, a headwind all of 2024. Do you think the mix is a positive driver in 2025? And if the first half had some benefit for easier comps or just with your second half improvement outlook, is it something that occurs later in the year? And then maybe one thing to get some color on here, that mix benefit, is that discretionary spend rising or any other factors that could help mix in 2025?

好的。這很有幫助。然後混合，2024 年全年的逆風。您認為這種組合是 2025 年的積極推動因素嗎？如果上半年對更容易的比賽有一些好處，或者只是對下半年的改善前景有所幫助，那麼這會在今年晚些時候發生嗎？然後，也許有一點需要說明一下，即混合效益，是可自由支配支出的增加還是任何其他因素可能有助於 2025 年的混合？

Yes. So I would say a safe assumption would be flat. There's been a general theme this year across all of the markets that we serve. It's either being completely pushed out from a project standpoint or if transactions are happening, it's going to a lower price point.

是的。所以我想說，一個安全的假設是持平。今年我們服務的所有市場都有一個共同的主題。從專案的角度來看，它要么被完全排除，要么如果發生交易，它的價格就會更低。

So clearly, the mix down has been ongoing for a number of quarters. We don't expect that to change dramatically next year.

很明顯，這種混合效應已經持續好幾個季度了。我們預計明年這種情況不會發生巨大變化。

Yes, we will have a better baseline given the comps. But what we need in order to drive a rich mix improvement is consumer confidence, specifically higher-end consumers, to dramatically improve and also project investors to have more conviction in cap rates and long-term financing to start driving project-related businesses again or project-related business.

是的，考慮到比較，我們將有一個更好的基線。但為了推動豐富的組合改善，我們需要的是消費者信心，特別是高端消費者的信心，以大幅提高，並讓投資者對上限利率和長期融資更有信心，以再次開始推動專案相關業務或項目相關業務。

And when that happens, we'll automatically get a mix uptick, but we are not anticipating any of that next year because that's very hard to plan for. But when it does happen, there's going to be a significant upside for us based on the portfolio that we currently have.

當這種情況發生時，我們會自動獲得混音的提升，但我們預計明年不會發生這種情況，因為這很難計劃。但當它確實發生時，根據我們目前擁有的投資組合，我們將會有一個顯著的上升空間。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

My first question is, thinking about the projects that you do have in the pipeline, you mentioned the ability to pull some of those ahead given what's going on in the business. What is your capacity to handle projects?

我的第一個問題是，考慮到您正在籌備的項目，您提到了考慮到業務中正在發生的情況，有能力提前完成其中一些項目。您處理專案的能力如何？

How are you aligning these teams to make sure that these things are going through and that you're continuing to stay on track with the quality and the metrics you're looking for? And how much more can you get in or how much more can you pull ahead given deterioration in the underlying environment?

您如何協調這些團隊以確保這些事情順利進行，並確保您繼續保持在您所尋求的品質和指標的正軌上？考慮到基礎環境的惡化，你還能投入多少，或還能領先多少？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Susan. So we have completed more than 500 projects as of the end of 3Q, and those are obviously spread all across the organization in different areas, and that's what's been driving the improvement that you can see in the cost structure.

是的。謝謝你的提問，蘇珊。截至第三季末，我們已經完成了 500 多個項目，這些項目顯然分佈在整個組織的不同領域，這就是您在成本結構中看到的推動改進的原因。

We have just over 350, what we would call live projects that are actually in or close to execution. What we're doing now is we are resequencing those based on opportunities and challenges that we currently see. We had a robust package of growth initiatives, which clearly we are having to recalibrate given the market headwind and the mix shift down.

我們有超過 350 個（我們稱之為實際正在執行或接近執行的專案）。我們現在正在做的是根據我們目前看到的機會和挑戰對這些進行重新排序。我們制定了一系列強勁的成長計劃，但考慮到市場逆風和結構調整，我們顯然必須重新調整這些計劃。

One of the initiatives that I talked about in my prepared remarks was really driving retail improvement for JELD-WEN. And that retail environment is in tough shape right now, so a lot of those projects and the refreshes in stores are getting pushed into the first half of next year. So that's -- we're seeing shifts on the growth side. We're accelerating cost initiatives.

我在準備好的演講中談到的舉措之一是真正推動 JELD-WEN 零售業的改善。目前零售環境情況嚴峻，因此許多項目和商店的更新都被推遲到明年上半年。所以，我們看到了成長方面的改變。我們正在加快成本計劃。

And one of the areas where we see a lot of opportunity is really dialing in on the right long-term footprint for our organization, and we're doing two things. And we've said this pretty consistently, we need fewer sites with better investment levels to drive a long-term operating efficiency and performance.

我們看到很多機會的領域之一是真正為我們的組織制定正確的長期足跡，我們正在做兩件事。我們一直在說，我們需要更少的站點和更好的投資水準來推動長期營運效率和績效。

So we finished the end of 2023 by reducing six sites. We'll take five sites off, an additional shift reductions this year. That's coming off a baseline number of 90 sites at the end of '22, and we're at 79 today, which is still too many.

因此，到 2023 年底，我們減少了 6 個站點。今年我們將關閉五個站點，進一步減少班次。這個數字低於 22 年底 90 個站點的基準數量，而今天我們的站點數量為 79 個，這仍然太多了。

And we're really focusing on how we can create the optimal future state by investing in automation and process improvements, which will then drive a lot of the cost efficiencies that we see in the model. So we're working on positioning that as a key lever for next year, which would then be incremental benefit over and above the $100 million that we currently have line of sight on, which is a 50 rolling and 50 new.

我們真正關注的是如何透過投資自動化和流程改進來創造最佳的未來狀態，這將大大提高我們在模型中看到的成本效率。因此，我們正在努力將其定位為明年的關鍵槓桿，這將是超出我們目前預期的 1 億美元（即 50 個滾動和 50 個新）的增量收益。

And our organization, it's a challenging time, with market headwinds and with all of the challenges that we're facing, really trying to get ourselves focused on a lot of the improvements. We've been doing a great job of knocking these down. But clearly, given the deterioration on the top line, it's not enough.

對於我們的組織來說，這是一個充滿挑戰的時期，面臨著市場逆風和我們面臨的所有挑戰，我們真的在努力讓自己專注於許多改進。我們在消除這些問題方面做得很好。但顯然，考慮到營收的惡化，這還不夠。

And so we do have to amp things up as we look into 2025, and that's what we're working on. So there's a robust pipeline of projects. We're going through in sequencing. But clearly, the key levers for us are going to be footprint, automation and efficiency across our network.

因此，在展望 2025 年時，我們確實必須加大力度，這就是我們正在努力的方向。因此，這裡有大量的項目。我們正在按順序進行。但顯然，我們的關鍵槓桿將是整個網路的佔地面積、自動化和效率。

Okay. That's great color. And then can you talk a bit about channel inventories and how those are positioned today, your ability to get those in line with where you'd like them to be heading into next year? And I guess part of that, too, the loss of retail revenue, how much of that is the impact to volume versus mix? Is it skewed more one versus the other?

好的。那顏色真棒。然後您能否談談渠道庫存以及這些庫存目前的定位以及您使這些庫存與您希望它們明年進入的位置保持一致的能力？我猜零售收入的損失也是其中的一部分，其中對銷售與組合的影響有多大？與另一方相比，它是否更傾斜？

Yes. So I would say the inventory is -- we've been saying this for a while. It's low, but it's stable. It's balanced to the pull in the channel, which is for our products, unfortunately, very thin. There's a lot of discretionary spend that goes into larger-sized patio doors, windows, et cetera.

是的。所以我想說庫存是——我們已經這麼說了一段時間了。雖低，但很穩定。它與通道中的拉力保持平衡，不幸的是，對於我們的產品來說，通道的拉力非常薄。有大量可自由支配的支出用於較大尺寸的露台門、窗戶等。

So it's fairly tight, but balanced given the market reality, and we don't think that's going to change dramatically as we roll into the first quarter, especially given the year-end that most of our retail customers have that's in the new year.

因此，它相當緊張，但考慮到市場現實，這是平衡的，我們認為，隨著我們進入第一季度，這種情況不會發生巨大變化，特別是考慮到我們大多數零售客戶都在新的一年裡度過了年底。

And then the volume mix, I'd say it's probably 50-50 roughly that's driving. And what we need, Susan, is we need the resale market to get reinvigorated, and that's going to create a pull through the retail channel for our products and others.

然後是音量混合，我想說大概是 50-50 左右。蘇珊，我們需要的是重振轉售市場，這將為我們的產品和其他產品創造零售通路的吸引力。

And we need consumer confidence to be better, and we need interest rates to be lower in order -- in our view, to drive that. And that's going to be the unlock for us. And right now, we think that, that will happen in '25, but later in '25, given the state of affairs and where rates are and where consumer sentiment is.

我們需要增強消費者信心，並且需要降低利率——我們認為，才能推動這一目標。這將是我們的解鎖。現在，我們認為，考慮到事態、利率和消費者信心，這將在 25 年發生，但會在 25 年晚些時候發生。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·博利，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to touch on that last point, actually. So reducing the revenue guide to core, down 13% to 14% versus prior down 5% to 9%. You're holding the end markets about the same. I know you said they're drifting to the low end. So it seems like the delta really is just a very significant change in the mix portion of it. And I heard you just say it's 50-50 volume mix.

事實上，我想談談最後一點。因此，核心收入指南下降了 13% 至 14%，而先前下降了 5% 至 9%。你對終端市場的控制也大致相同。我知道你說過他們正在走向低端。所以看起來三角洲確實只是其混合部分的一個非常重大的變化。我聽到你剛才說這是 50-50 卷的混合。

So I just really wanted to unpack that because that's a really significant move in mix that I don't know if we've seen to that degree with you guys historically. So I guess what are some of the specifics? And is it the case that mix really is a several hundred basis point headwind? And how do you think about that at least anniversarying and flattening out at some point in 2025?

所以我真的很想解開它，因為這是混合方面非常重要的一步，我不知道我們是否在歷史上與你們一起看到了這個程度。那我想具體有哪些？混合真的是幾百個基點的逆風嗎？您如何看待至少在周年紀念日和 2025 年某個時候趨於平緩的情況？

Matt, yes, the mix that we're seeing is really unprecedented. So this is not something that we've experienced in the past. And I think you saw that in Q3 in particular. In Q4, I would say it's a little more volume than mix, but Q3 was absolutely more mix than volume. So that's the roughly 50-50 Bill is talking about.

馬特，是的，我們所看到的混合確實是前所未有的。所以這不是我們過去經歷過的事。我認為您在第三季尤其看到了這一點。在第四季度，我想說的是，數量比混合多一點，但第三季度絕對是混合多於數量。這就是比爾所說的大約 50-50。

When you unpack the sales guidance revision, it's really looking at approximately $70 million, 40% is the softer R&R in North America. That's not just the retail channel. That does include some retail program pushouts, but it's across all the channels that we play in.

當你打開銷售指導修訂版時，你會發現它的實際價值約為 7000 萬美元，其中 40% 是北美較軟的 R&R。這不僅僅是零售通路。這確實包括一些零售計劃的推出，但它涉及我們參與的所有管道。

Then you have the other portion being the lower sales mix, and that's the piece that we're seeing in this unprecedented market, existing home sales are at their lowest level that we've seen in over a decade. And we're unfortunately experiencing that mix impact.

然後，另一部分是較低的銷售組合，這就是我們在這個前所未有的市場中看到的部分，現有房屋銷售處於十多年來的最低水平。不幸的是，我們正在經歷這種混合影響。

Then you have the loss of the Midwest retail customer we talked about, let's call it, $20 million, $25 million. Europe's continued market softness, another $20 million, $25 million. And then some of the multifamily headwinds essentially picking up, another $15 million. And that really is the breakdown when you think about that sales revision in the guidance.

那麼我們就失去了我們談到的中西部零售客戶，我們稱之為 2000 萬美元、2500 萬美元。歐洲市場持續疲軟，另外2000萬美元、2500萬美元。然後，多戶住宅的一些逆風基本上開始加劇，又增加了 1500 萬美元。當你考慮指南中的銷售修訂時，這確實是一個細分。

Okay. Really helpful there. And then secondly, so the Midwest customer, you're saying that they're going with, I guess, imported windows, if I heard you correctly, something sourced internationally. And I'm just curious, because I think the windows category is not typically something where we've at least historically seen a large presence of imports.

好的。那裡真的很有幫助。其次，中西部客戶，你說他們正在使用，我猜，進口窗戶，如果我沒聽錯的話，是從國際採購的東西。我只是很好奇，因為我認為窗戶類別通常不是我們至少在歷史上看到大量進口的東西。

So I'm wondering if that actually goes with the prior question with, hey, if folks are mixing down, maybe lower-priced imports makes more sense if this is just a cyclical phenomenon or if you're hearing of anything where maybe some of these imported window competitors are actually, for lack of a better term, cracking the code and figuring out how to bring that in to the US. So I'm just curious how do you think about that competitive dynamic with imported windows?

所以我想知道這是否真的與之前的問題相符，嘿，如果人們混合在一起，如果這只是一種週期性現象，或者如果你聽到任何可能是一些的事情，也許低價進口產品更有意義。所以我很好奇您如何看待進口窗戶的競爭動態？

Yes, sure, Matt. So I would say it's counterintuitive given the current environment that we're facing with tariffs, with supply chains, et cetera. We are not seeing a significant increase in import windows from Asia. So I would call this a unique choice to try something different. And I don't want to speak for our customers.

是的，當然，馬特。所以我想說，考慮到我們目前面臨的關稅、供應鏈等環境，這是違反直覺的。我們沒有看到來自亞洲的進口窗口顯著增加。所以我認為這是嘗試不同事物的獨特選擇。我不想代表我們的客戶說話。

We obviously are reacting to a decision and making sure that we can reload capacity for people that are requiring windows to be made in North America. So this is not, in our view, a trend. It's rather a one-off. And candidly, we'll see how this plays out given the election today and some of the potential supply chain implications longer term based on tariffs, et cetera.

顯然，我們正在對一項決定做出反應，並確保我們能夠為需要在北美製造窗戶的人重新加載產能。因此，我們認為這不是一種趨勢。這是一次性的。坦白說，考慮到今天的選舉以及基於關稅等的長期潛在供應鏈影響，我們將看到情況如何發展。

Jeff Stevenson, Loop Capital.

傑夫史蒂文森，Loop Capital。

This is Zack Pacheco on for Jeff today. Maybe just one more on the mix. Just curious how much of a factor you guys think the outside production builder growth we've seen this year is? Or is it, again, just a general slowdown in the mid- to high-end product?

我是紮克·帕切科，今天為傑夫發言。也許只是再加一個。只是好奇你們認為今年我們看到的外部生產建設者的成長有多大影響？還是只是中高階產品普遍放緩？

Yes. That's a major driver as the major production builders are building a lot of lower-end homes because those are the people that are looking to get into this market. Clearly, they're taking the lower end product. And we've said that's a big mix down on our doors business, and we are underrepresented on windows in that sector. And therefore, it's a hit for us, and it's a significant hit.

是的。這是一個主要驅動因素，因為主要的生產建築商正在建造大量低端住宅，因為這些人希望進入這個市場。顯然，他們正在採用低端產品。我們已經說過，這對我們的門業務來說是一個很大的影響，而我們在該領域的窗戶業務中的代表性不足。因此，這對我們來說是一個打擊，而且是一個重大打擊。

Makes sense. And then quickly on capital allocation. In the last quarter, you guys bought back a bunch of -- opportunistically bought back shares to offset dilution, given -- is that more on the back burner now given other strategic investments? Or how are you guys thinking about that moving forward?

有道理。然後快速進行資本配置。在上個季度，你們回購了一批股票——機會主義地回購股票以抵消稀釋，考慮到——現在考慮到其他戰略投資，這是否更多地被擱置了？或者你們對未來的發展有何看法？

Yes. I would say definitely on the back burner. I think our leverage ratio is above 3 times. We have a lot of work to do to improve our EBITDA, which will then reset the ratio in the appropriate corridor. But right now, we're investing in ourselves through a significant capital outlay as we described today, and that's going to be the main focus as we go forward. We're never ruling anything out, but clearly, that is not an area of focus short term.

是的。我想說絕對是暫時擱置。我認為我們的槓桿率在3倍以上。我們還有很多工作要做來提高我們的 EBITDA，這將在適當的走廊內重置比率。但現在，正如我們今天所描述的那樣，我們正在透過大量資本支出對自己進行投資，這將是我們前進的主要焦點。我們從不排除任何可能性，但顯然，這不是短期關注的領域。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森，沃爾夫研究中心。

First one, following up on 2025 CapEx. You've talked about potentially seeing a volume rebound in North America in the back half of next year. If you don't see that volume rebound, would you expect to pull back on any of that 2025 CapEx spending to concert some cash?

第一個是 2025 年資本支出的後續行動。您談到明年下半年北美的銷售可能會反彈。如果您沒有看到銷售反彈，您是否會期望削減 2025 年資本支出以籌集一些現金？

Or in your mind, is that pretty locked in? And then, I guess, taking the other side of that, if volumes come back earlier, say, the first half of next year, would you expect to pull forward some more projects, maybe some growth projects and that CapEx number go up a little bit?

或者在你看來，這是相當鎖定的嗎？And then, I guess, taking the other side of that, if volumes come back earlier, say, the first half of next year, would you expect to pull forward some more projects, maybe some growth projects and that CapEx number go up a little位元?

Yes. So we have ample opportunity to improve our foundation and there's still a lot of work that needs to be done. So I don't think we're going to pull back, unless there's a very dramatic market adjustment. There's very long lead times on some of these capital projects that we have in place, the tune of 18 months.

是的。所以我們有充分的機會來完善我們的基礎，但還有很多工作要做。所以我認為我們不會撤退，除非市場有非常劇烈的調整。我們現有的一些資本項目的交付週期很長，長達 18 個月。

So a lot of it's in flight. We're also releasing additional capital. If things get way better, that's a great problem to have. I don't necessarily know if our organization can handle much more than what we're doing today because we've effectively doubled our outlay on CapEx.

所以很多都在飛行中。我們也釋放了額外的資本。如果事情變得更好，那就是一個大問題了。我不一定知道我們的組織是否能夠處理比我們今天所做的更多的事情，因為我們實際上已經將資本支出支出增加了一倍。

And we're still getting used to that higher cadence. So I would suggest that's probably unlikely. But we do expect to continue at this rate, just given the opportunity that we see and especially footprint that takes some capital to really get it into the right position.

我們仍在適應這種更高的節奏。所以我建議這可能不太可能。但我們確實希望繼續以這種速度發展，只要我們看到機會，特別是需要一些資本才能真正進入正確位置的足跡。

Okay. Got you. That makes sense. And then VPI and multifamily, you talked about being down 25%-plus for the year. Clearly, multifamily starts have been soft for a while now here. So can you just remind us the lag between a multifamily start and when that impacts your revenue?

好的。明白你了。這是有道理的。然後是 VPI 和多戶住宅，您談到今年下降了 25% 以上。顯然，這裡的多戶住宅開工已經有一段時間疲軟了。那麼，您能提醒我們多戶家庭的啟動與影響您的收入之間存在滯後嗎？

And then if you think that for your business specifically, you're nearing a bottom for that end market, if there's a little bit further to go here before you get there?

然後，如果您認為，特別是對於您的業務而言，您正接近該終端市場的底部，在到達那裡之前是否還需要進一步發展？

Right. So permitting multifamily projects is a very arduous process. So let's take that out of the equation and just assume that the starts going up today, you should expect our product anywhere in the range of six to nine months because we're putting windows into the structure, and they want to button that up, so they can finish out the interior.

正確的。因此，批准多戶住宅計畫是一個非常艱鉅的過程。因此，讓我們將其排除在外，假設今天的開工率上升，您應該期望我們的產品在六到九個月的範圍內，因為我們正在將窗戶放入結構中，並且他們希望將其固定，這樣他們就可以完成內部裝潢。

But of course, we need the permitting to kick back on, and that has a lag. So from a start, meaning there's concrete being poured at six to nine months. But to get to that start, there's a longer period of time depending on where you are.

但當然，我們需要獲得許可才能重新啟動，而這有一個滯後期。因此，從一開始，這意味著需要六到九個月的時間來澆築混凝土。但要達到這一目標，需要更長的時間，具體取決於您所在的位置。

We have made investments, and this is one of our growth initiatives is to hire additional salespeople and bear the cost, but to start building a more robust portfolio of projects in the markets that we don't serve with customers from other regions that are building in white spots for us.

我們已經進行了投資，這是我們的成長舉措之一，那就是僱用更多的銷售人員並承擔成本，但開始在我們不為其他地區的客戶提供服務的市場上建立更強大的項目組合對我們來說是白點。

So we are building a nice portfolio of projects, and we expect we're going to start harvesting those as we look into the back half of next year. But it's a moderate uptick, especially on multifamily just because we haven't seen a turn yet.

因此，我們正在建立一個很好的項目組合，我們預計在明年下半年我們將開始收穫這些項目。但這是一個溫和的上升，特別是對於多戶住宅來說，因為我們還沒有看到轉變。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

麥克·達爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

I just want to go back to the mix dynamic for a minute. I think I heard you say that when you look at the revision, 70% of the volume revision is retail and R&R, and the other is lower mix. I know you addressed the production builder dynamic, but maybe I missed it.

我只想回到混音動態一分鐘。我想我聽到你說，當你看修訂版時，70% 的捲修訂是零售和 R&R，其他是較低的組合。我知道你談到了生產建構者的動態，但也許我錯過了。

Can you just specify when you look at this year, how much of a headwind would you peg, just smaller footage of homes and new construction, meaning fewer windows and doors per home. And when you make the comment about volume being flat to down a little in '25, is that inclusive of that continued mix dynamic potentially carrying over? Or is that more of a pure volume dynamic?

你能否具體說明一下，當你回顧今年時，你會看到多少逆風，只是房屋和新建建築的鏡頭較小，這意味著每個房屋的門窗會減少。當您評論 25 年銷量持平或略有下降時，這是否包括可能延續的持續混合動力？還是這更多的是純粹的成交量動態？

Yes. So just to clarify, I said $70 million or approximately 40% of the guidance revision is around the softer R&R, so that some retail and then, again, we talked about some of that higher-end products in the traditional channel. You were mentioning the mix dynamic with production builders. It's not as much fewer as it is lower end.

是的。因此，為了澄清，我說 7000 萬美元或大約 ​​40% 的指導修訂是圍繞較軟的 R&R 進行的，以便進行一些零售，然後我們再次討論了傳統管道中的一些高端產品。您提到了與生產建設者的混合動態。它並不像低端那麼少。

So it's not necessarily the quantity, but the lower-priced products that are going into these production homes. So I do expect, as I said, we haven't had clear signals that H1 of next year is going to be dramatically different. But we do expect the back half to pick up a little bit. So that's kind of, I would say, the phasing right now, our view of that mix dynamic.

因此，進入這些生產基地的不一定是數量，而是價格較低的產品。因此，正如我所說，我確實預計，我們還沒有明確的信號表明明年上半年將會發生巨大的不同。但我們確實預計後半段會有所回升。我想說，這就是我們現在對混合動態的看法。

Okay. But to be clear, if it's like if your comment is flat to down on volume next year, is that flat down on combined volume mix next year?

好的。但需要明確的是，如果您的評論是明年的銷售持平甚至下降，那麼明年的總銷售組合是否會持平？

Yes. I would say flat to down on volume mix next year. I think it'd be too early right now to call the volume quantity versus the mix shift. I would say it's volume mix combined.

是的。我想說明年的銷售組合將持平或下降。我認為現在稱數量與混合變化還為時過早。我會說它是體積混合的組合。

Okay. And then the other question I had, I guess I'm struggling a little bit with this concept of the transformation journey being -- and by that, I mean, like if I look at your bridge, it basically implies that if it were not for these cost reductions, I know you're quoting it in EBITDA terms, but it basically suggests your business wouldn't have been profitable this year.

好的。然後我的另一個問題是，我想我在轉型之旅的概念上有點掙扎——我的意思是，就像我看著你的橋一樣，它基本上意味著如果它不是對於這些成本削減，我知道您是用EBITDA 術語引用的，但這基本上表明您的業務今年不會盈利。

And so while I appreciate that getting from a net loss in EPS terms to where you are today, still reflects some cost out. How much of that is really truly transformational versus just the rightsizing of the business, which is normal when you've seen this much sales degradation and you're only talking to pretty normal incrementals on the way up, if you're saying 25% to 30% volume incremental.

因此，儘管我很欣賞從每股盈餘淨虧損到今天的水平，但仍然反映出一些成本支出。其中有多少是真正真正的變革，而不是業務的調整規模，當你看到如此多的銷售下降並且你只談論增長過程中相當正常的增量時，如果你說 25%，這是正常的至30% 的體積增量。

So this stuff was really more structural, I guess, I would have thought the potential is that you see much better than historical norms on some of those incrementals if and when volumes do come back.

因此，我想，這些東西實際上更具結構性，我以為，如果銷量確實恢復的話，您會看到其中一些增量的情況比歷史標準要好得多。

Yes. So I guess from a macro level, I would say, this is a combination of process rigor and ownership within our organization, but also giving us visibility on where and how do we want to invest, so prioritizing initiatives. If you think way back in our history, I don't think we were doing a very good job of tackling some of the foundational challenges that we had.

是的。因此，我想從宏觀層面來看，這是我們組織內流程嚴謹性和所有權的結合，同時也讓我們了解我們想要投資的地點和方式，從而確定計劃的優先順序。如果你回想一下我們的歷史，我認為我們在解決我們面臨的一些基本挑戰方面做得併不好。

And so this process -- this transformation process, yes, there is a mix of some what many would term as daily business activities in there, but there's also a fairly sizable piece of how are we allocating capital, what's the return on those projects, and creating the rigor in the organization to also make the tough decisions. I'll remind you on the oral line exit this year.

所以這個過程——這個轉型過程，是的，其中混合了一些許多人所說的日常業務活動，但也有相當大的一部分是我們如何分配資本，這些項目的回報是什麼，並在組織中建立嚴謹性，以做出艱難的決定。今年我會在口頭線路退出時提醒您。

If we're not delivering and hitting our hurdles, we're going to have to make the tough decisions. And we're doing that because now we're tracking, and we have a very strong visibility in our organization of these work streams. The decremental challenge that we have is that we're now starting to get down below two shifts to one shift, and we have capacity utilization challenges across our network.

如果我們不能實現目標並克服障礙，我們將不得不做出艱難的決定。我們這樣做是因為現在我們正在跟踪，並且我們在這些工作流程的組織中擁有非常強大的可見性。我們面臨的遞減挑戰是，我們現在開始將兩班制減少到一班制，並且我們整個網路都面臨容量利用率的挑戰。

And we've said from the very beginning, we have too many sites, and we need fewer sites. We have to overinvest in those fewer sites to get them up to the level that we feel appropriate to deliver great quality products on time, safely to our customers. And that's the main list, and that's the transformation that we're driving.

我們從一開始就說過，我們的站點太多，我們需要的站點更少。我們必須對那些較少的站點進行過度投資，以使它們達到我們認為合適的水平，以便按時、安全地向我們的客戶提供優質的產品。這就是主要清單，這就是我們正在推動的轉型。

So I'd say the low hanging and the fruit on the ground has been picked up in a very tough market headwind, and we're now working on, all right, the long-term view on how do we really get to that future state of footprint that's going to drive growth, given what has become a very volatile market in North America and a very soft demand environment in Europe. So hopefully that answers the question on a broader base.

因此，我想說，在非常艱難的市場逆風中，懸而未決的任務和已經取得的成果已經得到了解決，我們現在正在研究如何真正實現這一未來的長期觀點。的需求環境非常疲軟，這將推動成長。希望這能在更廣泛的基礎上回答這個問題。

At this time, I will hand the call back over to Mr. Armstrong for any closing remarks.

此時，我會將電話轉回給阿姆斯壯先生，以便他發表結束語。

Yes. Thank you for joining our call today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out, and I'd be happy to answer them for you. This ends our call, and have a great day.

是的。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡我們，我很樂意為您解答。我們的通話到此結束，祝您有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。