使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Hello. Good morning, everyone. My name is Renato Lulia and I'm the Head of Investor Relations and Market Intelligence at Itaú Unibanco. Thank you very much for attending this conference to discuss our earnings for the second quarter of 2023 which we are broadcasting directly from our office here at Faria Lima Avenue in Sao Paulo.
你好。大家,早安。我叫雷納托‧盧利亞 (Renato Lulia),是 Itañ Unibanco 的投資者關係和市場情報主管。非常感謝您參加本次會議,討論我們 2023 年第二季的收入,我們將直接從我們位於聖保羅法裡亞利馬大道的辦公室進行廣播。
Today's event will be divided into 2 parts. In the first part, Milton will detail our quarterly performance and earnings. This will be followed by a Q&A session during which analysts and investors will have the opportunity to interact directly with us. (Operator Instructions) Our presentation today is available for download on the website screen as well as on our IR website.
今天的活動將分為2個部分。在第一部分中,米爾頓將詳細介紹我們的季度業績和收益。隨後將進行問答環節,分析師和投資者將有機會直接與我們互動。 (操作員說明)我們今天的簡報可以在網站螢幕以及我們的 IR 網站上下載。
I will now hand over to Milton, who will start the earnings presentation. And I'll be back later to moderate the Q&A session. Milton, the floor is yours.
我現在將會議交給米爾頓,他將開始收益報告。我稍後會回來主持問答環節。米爾頓,地板是你的。
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to our earnings presentation for the second quarter of 2023. Thank you, Renato. I'll get straight to the figures. We have a very direct presentation today in order to give you an overview of the figures, pick out some highlights and at the end, we'll talk about guidance. So let's get started. This quarter, we've delivered BRL 8.7 billion in earnings, which represents a growth of 3.6% with a very strong ROE profitability of 20.9%, 21.5% in Brazil. In our opinion, these are two very strong results.
大家早安。歡迎觀看我們 2023 年第二季的收益演示。謝謝雷納托。我會直接講數字。我們今天有一個非常直接的演示,以便讓您對這些數據有一個概述,挑選一些亮點,最後我們將討論指導。那麼就讓我們開始吧。本季度,我們實現了 87 億雷亞爾的獲利,成長了 3.6%,ROE 獲利能力非常強勁,達到 20.9%,巴西為 21.5%。我們認為,這是兩個非常強烈的結果。
The margin with clients grew by 3.7% to reach BRL 24.9 billion. And as you will see from the figures, this is a core result with little impact from working capital. In terms of margin with the market, this was yet another very strong quarter. We are aware of the challenges faced in this area. But despite these we've been able to continue to deliver quarter after quarter seeing 65% growth.
客戶利潤成長 3.7%,達到 249 億雷亞爾。正如您從數字中看到的那樣,這是核心結果,營運資本的影響很小。就市場利潤率而言,這是另一個非常強勁的季度。我們意識到該領域面臨的挑戰。但儘管如此,我們仍然能夠繼續一個季度又一個季度地實現 65% 的成長。
The delinquency ratio is stable with a growth of 0.1 percentage points as we've been anticipating for several quarters. Meaning these are entirely in line with our expectations and consistent with the information we've provided to you in the past. The efficiency ratio is 39.6% on a consolidated basis. And in Brazil, we reached the lowest ratio ever. which is great news and was driven by the key top line growth and cost control.
拖欠率穩定成長 0.1 個百分點,正如我們幾個季度以來的預期。這意味著這些完全符合我們的期望,並且與我們過去向您提供的資訊一致。綜合效率為39.6%。在巴西,我們達到了有史以來的最低比例。這是個好消息,是由關鍵的營收成長和成本控制所推動的。
We'll get into a bit more detail on both of these agendas a little later. As for our loan portfolio, I've set out to you on past calls, the adjustments that have been made to this portfolio, such as de-risking in some segments, which were significant to our delinquency ratio and cost of credit. As such, it's only natural that we're seeing the portfolio's growth decelerate somewhat. We managed to obtain 0.6% growth in the quarter in the individual loans portfolio and 8.9% year-on-year, only slightly below double digit.
稍後我們將更詳細地討論這兩個議程。至於我們的貸款組合,我已經在過去的電話會議上向大家介紹了對該組合進行的調整,例如某些領域的去風險化,這對我們的拖欠率和信貸成本至關重要。因此,我們看到投資組合的成長放緩是很自然的。本季個人貸款組合成長 0.6%,年增 8.9%,僅略低於兩位數。
In the SMEs portfolio, the volume was virtually flat, given the impact of foreign exchange rates on these portfolios, especially in the middle market. Year-on-year, growth was 4.4%. In Latin America, the figures reflect the impact of changes in foreign exchange change rate. And if not for this impact, the consolidated figures would have grown by 1.3% quarter-over-quarter and by 7% year-over-year.
在中小企業投資組合中,考慮到外匯匯率對這些投資組合的影響,特別是在中間市場,交易量幾乎持平。較去年同期成長4.4%。在拉丁美洲,這些數字反映了外匯變化率變化的影響。如果沒有這項影響,綜合數據將較上季成長 1.3%,較去年同期成長 7%。
So the key point we can take away from portfolio figures is that we've never stopped growing. At any point in the cycle in terms of both number of clients and target segments. We also did all of this while derisking the portfolio. To give you an example, we saw a reduction in the credit card portfolio during the quarter, which was very much by design. We decided to make a key intervention in the portfolio, especially in those channels, we call the Open Sea where we noticed accelerated delinquency rates, over offering of products and a very high level of debt service burden.
因此,我們可以從投資組合數據中得出的關鍵點是,我們從未停止成長。在客戶數量和目標細分市場的周期中的任何時刻。我們在降低投資組合風險的同時也做到了這一切。舉個例子,我們看到本季信用卡投資組合有所減少,這很大程度上是有意為之。我們決定對投資組合進行關鍵幹預,特別是在那些我們稱之為「公海」的管道中,我們注意到拖欠率加快、產品供應過度以及償債負擔非常高。
Digitalization also has driven an expansion in the number of credit cards. Until recently, we had an average of 1.7 cards per individual, whereas currently we have 4 cards per individual in the market, which indicates an oversupply. Despite all this effort, and I'll talk more about delinquency rates in a while. But suffice to say that during this quarter, we've started turning things around. We don't show a breakdown by portfolio, but note that the credit card NPL has already reduced by 20 basis points this quarter with the portfolio decelerating. This shows how important it was to make these adjustments in a timely manner.
數位化也推動了信用卡數量的增加。直到最近,我們每人平均擁有 1.7 張卡,而目前市場上每人擁有 4 張卡,這表明供應過剩。儘管付出了所有這些努力,我稍後會更多地討論拖欠率。但可以說的是,在本季度,我們已經開始扭轉局面。我們沒有按投資組合進行細分,但請注意,隨著投資組合減速,信用卡不良貸款本季已減少 20 個基點。由此可見,及時做出這些調整是多麼重要。
Now in other segments such as middle and high income and higher revenue businesses, both in retail and wholesale with more resilient clients in the cycle. We've continued to grow well above double digits and in the more affluent segments and more than 20%. So clearly, growth has not gone away. Obviously, we're coming from a more challenging credit environment, but we're starting to see positive signs and we'll continue to reach to and anticipate this cycle so we can continue to deliver sustainable results and good profitability.
現在在其他領域,例如中高收入和高收入業務,無論是零售還是批發,都在周期中擁有更具彈性的客戶。我們的成長速度持續遠超兩位數,在較富裕的細分市場,成長速度超過 20%。很明顯,成長並沒有消失。顯然,我們正處於更具挑戰性的信貸環境中,但我們開始看到積極的跡象,我們將繼續達到並預測這一周期,以便我們能夠繼續提供可持續的業績和良好的盈利能力。
In terms of financial margin with clients, the key message is that most of the result came from our core business. As you can see, working capital accounted for BRL 2.8 billion last quarter and BRL 2.9 billion this quarter, representing only a slight change. So most of these earnings are consistent with the core margin with clients. So this is great news for our margin with yet another quarter of growth.
就與客戶的財務利潤而言,關鍵資訊是大部分結果來自我們的核心業務。如您所見,上季營運資金為 28 億雷亞爾,本季為 29 億雷亞爾,變化不大。因此,這些收益大部分與客戶的核心利潤是一致的。因此,這對我們的利潤率來說是個好消息,又一個季度實現了成長。
When we look at the annualized average margin rate, we see a quarter-on-quarter expansion to 8.8% in this quarter from 8.4% in the second quarter of last year. And even adjusted for risk, we managed to maintain at the same level. I would also remind you that in fourth quarter of 2022, considering everything we said about credit costs and ratios, we have the impact of that large retailer, of which you are already aware. When we look at the margin in Brazil, the story is similar. We saw quarter-on-quarter NIM growth to 9.6% from 9.2% in the second quarter of 2022.
當我們看年化平均利潤率時,我們發現本季環比從去年第二季的8.4%擴張至8.8%。即使根據風險進行調整,我們也設法保持在同一水平。我還想提醒您,在 2022 年第四季度,考慮到我們所說的有關信貸成本和比率的一切,我們受到了那家大型零售商的影響,您已經知道了。當我們觀察巴西的利潤率時,情況也類似。我們看到淨利差較上季從 2022 年第二季的 9.2% 成長至 9.6%。
And in terms of the risk-adjusted margin, we also see a recovery. This is great news, since despite all the challenges and portfolio adjustments, we kept increasing our margin with clients. As for the margin with the market, as I already anticipated, we had a very good quarter since both the preceding ones, we've been running at an average of BRL 600 million per quarter.
就風險調整後的利潤率而言,我們也看到了復甦。這是個好消息,因為儘管面臨所有挑戰和投資組合調整,我們仍不斷增加與客戶的利潤。至於市場利潤率,正如我已經預期的那樣,自前兩個季度以來,我們的季度表現非常好,我們的平均每季利潤為 6 億雷亞爾。
In the current quarter, we reached BRL 1.1 billion, with growth both in Brazil and Latin America and at a slightly lower hedging cost of our capital ratio as the interest rate gap closed a little, we ended up having a slightly lower hedging cost. So another sound quarter and despite the existing interest rate challenges, we've been able to take advantage of the opportunities.
本季度,我們達到了 11 億雷亞爾,巴西和拉丁美洲都有成長,而且隨著利率差距的縮小,我們的資本比率的對沖成本略有下降,最終我們的對沖成本略有下降。因此,又一個穩健的季度,儘管存在利率挑戰,但我們已經能夠利用這些機會。
I'd like to spend some time on this slide. Since here, we need to explain in detail some assumptions. The main message here is the discussion of Itau Unibanco's sensitivity to interest rate cycle. There are those who understand exactly how our sensitivity changes throughout the cycle. There are those who have questions and there are those who think that we could be more sensitive in an interest rate cut cycle than in a hike cycle. There are several views. What we have sought to do here is provide a summary of how our NIM evolves during a long interest rate cycle. We've normalized certain impacts.
我想在這張投影片上花一些時間。既然在這裡,我們需要詳細解釋一些假設。這裡的主要訊息是討論 Itau Unibanco 對利率週期的敏感性。有些人確切地了解我們的敏感度在整個週期中如何變化。有些人有疑問,有些人認為我們在降息週期中可能比在升息週期中更敏感。有幾種觀點。我們在這裡試圖做的是總結我們的淨利差在長期利率週期中如何演變。我們已將某些影響正常化。
First,we matched the NIM that is we brought together the margin with the market and our margin with clients because after all, the interest rate cycle affects both. Second, we've eliminated some effects from a historical perspective to get a comparison basis. we've normalized the overdraft cap, eliminated the impact of the over-hedge, which is important and the hedging cost of the capital ratio which I was talking about just now is also gone. It may have some sensitivity to interest but this has nothing to do with the bank's core business.
首先,我們將淨利差進行匹配,即我們將保證金與市場以及我們的保證金與客戶結合起來,因為畢竟利率週期會影響兩者。其次,我們從歷史的角度消除了一些影響,以獲得比較的基礎。我們把透支上限正常化了,消除了過度對沖的影響,這一點很重要,而且我剛才講的資本比率的對沖成本也沒有了。它可能對利息有一定的敏感性,但這與銀行的核心業務無關。
We made two further adjustments. One was in the fourth quarter of 2019 since this was the last pre-pandemic quarter where we had a 100 baseline, and we adjusted to fixed mix. That's because as we change the mix over time, this naturally changes our NIM. If we have a more secure portfolio, we get a lower NIM. And if we have a clean portfolio, a higher NIM. Than what we wanted to show was the sensitivity to interest in our NIM as a function of the interest rate site by locking in a 100 base line. see that when we go back to 2016, we see reasonable stability. We go from 105. We go to 102. We go through 99, 102 again, and we get to 100.
我們又做了兩項調整。其中一次是在 2019 年第四季度,因為這是大流行前的最後一個季度,我們的基線為 100,我們調整為固定組合。這是因為隨著時間的推移,我們改變組合,這自然會改變我們的 NIM。如果我們有更安全的投資組合,我們的淨利差就會更低。如果我們有一個乾淨的投資組合,淨利差就會更高。我們想要展示的是,透過鎖定 100 基線,我們的淨利差利息作為利率網站的函數的敏感性。看到當我們回到 2016 年時,我們看到了合理的穩定性。我們從 105 開始,到 102。再經過 99、102,最後到 100。
Interest went from 14% to 6% and kept reducing to reach 3%. Here in 2020, we introduced a program called Travessia, which naturally had a strong impact on the NIM because of renegotiations with our clients. So this helps understanding that the main impact comes from the Travessia program. As we can see, interest rates continue to fall, then they go back up, but our NIM remains pretty stable.
利息從 14% 降至 6%,並持續降低至 3%。 2020 年,我們推出了一個名為 Travessia 的項目,由於與客戶重新談判,該項目自然對 NIM 產生了巨大影響。因此,這有助於理解主要影響來自 Travessia 計劃。正如我們所看到的,利率繼續下降,然後又回升,但我們的淨利差仍然相當穩定。
What is the message we want to get across here about our ability to manage risk and the risk factors to which our balance sheet is exposed and is sensitive. We use this type of risk management across all our business lines. whether in the margin with clients or the management of our products and commercial portfolios and above all, in the management of risk factors within the treasury department.
我們想在這裡傳達的關於我們管理風險的能力以及我們的資產負債表所面臨和敏感的風險因素的資訊是什麼。我們在所有業務線中都使用這種類型的風險管理。無論是在客戶保證金方面,還是在我們的產品和商業投資組合的管理方面,最重要的是,在財務部門內的風險因素管理方面。
In the margin with the market. And as you've seen, we have been able to manage risks very well. Therefore, we do not go long only in our position, regardless of whether we are in an interest rate hike or cut cycle. We actively manage risk factors at the bank. We have a very dynamic approach to risk management. And these are the results produced throughout the cycle. I think I've made this clear, but of course, the IR team is available to answer any questions to clarify details. But I hope this material has been a little clear how interest-sensitive our NIM is.
與市場處於邊際。正如您所看到的,我們能夠很好地管理風險。因此,無論處於升息週期或降息週期,我們都不會只做多。我們積極管理銀行的風險因素。我們有一個非常動態的風險管理方法。這些都是整個週期產生的結果。我想我已經說得很清楚了,但當然,IR 團隊可以回答任何問題以澄清細節。但我希望這份資料已經清楚地說明了我們的 NIM 對利率的敏感度。
In commission and fees and results from insurance operations, we expected a slightly more robust performance fee from capital markets activity in the first half 2023 than we actually got and I'll talk a little bit about that in the guidance later. Nevertheless, we were able to grow quite strongly in the credit and debit cards with a year-on-year increase of 10.9% with a 22% in the acquirer earnings. Our acquiring business reached a volume of BRL 208 billion and a 22% growth in revenue. So we're having a very special year in the [hedgy] business.
在佣金、費用以及保險業務的業績方面,我們預計 2023 年上半年資本市場活動的績效費將比我們實際得到的略高,我將在稍後的指南中對此進行一些討論。儘管如此,我們的信用卡和金融卡業務仍強勁成長,年增 10.9%,收單方收益成長 22%。我們的收單業務量達到 2,080 億雷亞爾,營收成長 22%。因此,我們在[對沖]業務中度過了非常特殊的一年。
But when we look at asset management, we see a drop in the quarter and year-on-year, while reminding you that typically the effects of performance fees are recognized in the second quarter, but this was a weaker 6-month period in terms of performance fees for the industry as a whole. And for us, it was no different. We're already starting to see stronger activity for the second half of the year and an expectation of recovery, but it may not be enough for us to make up for what we weren't able to capture in the first half. And here, I'm talking about the whole industry, which went through a tougher market this year.
但當我們審視資產管理時,我們看到季度和同比都有所下降,同時提醒您,績效費用的影響通常會在第二季度得到體現,但從角度來看,這是一個較弱的6 個月期間。整個產業的績效費。對我們來說,這沒有什麼不同。我們已經開始看到下半年的活動更加強勁以及復甦的預期,但這可能不足以彌補上半年未能實現的目標。在這裡,我談論的是整個產業,今年經歷了更艱難的市場。
On the advisory services and brokerage front, we kept on performing very well in terms of investment banking, leading most of the transactions that came to the market with huge transactions primarily follow-ons. We also maintained a key leadership role in the DCM market. However, it's very important to make clear that during this first half year, volumes in the fixed income capital market fell by 45%. In effect, showing much weaker activity in the market than we had anticipated.
在諮詢服務和經紀方面,我們在投資銀行方面繼續表現出色,主導了進入市場的大部分交易,其中巨額交易主要是後續交易。我們也在 DCM 市場中保持著重要的領導地位。然而,需要明確的是,今年上半年,固定收益資本市場的交易量下降了 45%。實際上,市場活動比我們預期的要弱得多。
Looking at the second half, we can already see a rebound, but perhaps not enough to offset the market volume drop in the first half. As for ECM activity was also resumed, and we've been discussing this with the market. So we have positive expectations going forward. The last item I wanted to address are the earnings from our insurance pension and premium bonds operations, which grew by 2.9% in the quarter and 17.5% year-on-year.
從下半年來看,我們已經可以看到反彈,但或許還不足以抵銷上半年市場成交量的下降。至於ECM活動也已恢復,我們一直在與市場討論此事。因此,我們對未來抱持著正面的期望。我想談的最後一個問題是我們的保險退休金和保費債券業務的收入,本季成長 2.9%,年增 17.5%。
When we look at premiums earned, we grew by 12%. And and the recurring results in our core insurance business showed less volatility with a very satisfactory loss ratio in the segments that represent less volatility and bring more profitability overall posted year-on-year growth. Last year, our recurring insurance results grew by 50% and this year, we've already grown 24%. This shows that our strategy has been successful and that we found a way to expand our insurance operations, which has been a major contributor to delivering and creating value.
當我們查看所賺取的保費時,我們增加了 12%。我們核心保險業務的經常性表現顯示,波動性較小,在波動性較小、整體年成長帶來更高獲利能力的細分市場中,損失率非常令人滿意。去年,我們的經常性保險業績成長了 50%,今年,我們已經成長了 24%。這表明我們的策略是成功的,我們找到了擴大保險業務的方法,這一直是交付和創造價值的主要貢獻者。
Finally, in terms of fund management, we posted growth of 4.7%, both in the open platform and in our own products. We've continued to expand our funding. I think that was the headline message here. I'll spend a few minutes talking about credit.
最後,在基金管理方面,我們的開放平台和我們自己的產品都實現了 4.7% 的成長。我們持續擴大資金投入。我認為這是這裡的頭條新聞。我將花幾分鐘討論信用。
First, when we look at the NPL 15 to 90 days, whether in Brazil or Latin America or overall, we see similar figures. The more important than the 2.5% obtained is the trend since we don't see any big impact on short-term delinquency either in Brazil or in Latin America, which is great news. The overview for Brazil illustrates a key point I mentioned to you last quarter, which is that we did expect this increase. since there is a seasonality effect in the first quarter, which historically tends to drive delinquency ratios, while the second quarter tends to see a recovery.
首先,當我們查看 15 至 90 天的不良貸款時,無論是在巴西、拉丁美洲還是整體而言,我們都看到了類似的數字。比獲得的 2.5% 更重要的是趨勢,因為我們沒有看到巴西或拉丁美洲的短期拖欠率受到任何重大影響,這是個好消息。巴西的概況說明了我上個季度向您提到的一個關鍵點,那就是我們確實預計會出現這種增長。由於第一季存在季節性效應,從歷史上看,這往往會推高拖欠率,而第二季度往往會出現復甦。
In the last couple of years, this hasn't happened because of the pandemic, which is something we had already talked about. But the key issue here, which I mentioned on the last call is that we expected to recover about 10 basis points in the short-term delinquency, and that's what ended up happening. I've already mentioned several times, but I'd like to stress again, the extent to which we have been able to predict and anticipate the bank cycles and to make projections using the tools we have available. I think this is very important, not only in terms of transparency to you, but also for our management and decision-making ability.
在過去的幾年裡,由於大流行,這種情況沒有發生,這是我們已經討論過的事情。但這裡的關鍵問題,我在上次電話會議中提到的是,我們預計短期拖欠率將恢復約 10 個基點,而這正是最終發生的情況。我已經多次提到過,但我想再次強調,我們能夠在多大程度上預測和預期銀行週期,並使用我們現有的工具進行預測。我覺得這一點非常重要,不僅對大家來說透明,對我們的管理和決策能力也很重要。
We have great news regarding the NPL 15 to 90 days in Brazil for SMEs, which remains stable. We have no specific concerns in this regard. As for the large corporate index, the changes are small, and I don't think this is a fair indicator for large corporates. When we look at the consolidated figures here in the NPL 90 days, we see a slight increase of 10 basis points in Brazil and an increase of 10 basis points on a consolidated basis and also a decrease of 10 basis points in Latin America, as I mentioned in the first slide.
我們有關於巴西中小企業 15 至 90 天不良貸款的好消息,該不良貸款保持穩定。我們在這方面沒有具體的擔憂。至於大型企業指數,變化較小,我認為這對大型企業來說不是一個公平的指標。當我們查看 90 天不良貸款的合併數據時,我們發現巴西小幅增加了 10 個基點,合併增加了 10 個基點,拉丁美洲也減少了 10 個基點,因為我第一張投影片中提到。
The key thing here is how we break down this information. We've been telling you for a few quarters since the end of last year that at the start of the year, we were going to stabilize the 90-day NPL of individuals. And in the first quarter of this year, we already have stabilized this delinquency ratio. As you can see here, in fact, the NPL 90 days was stable, and this implies to further affect.
這裡的關鍵是我們如何分解這些資訊。自去年底以來的幾個季度,我們一直在告訴大家,今年年初,我們將穩定個人的 90 天不良貸款。今年第一季度,我們已經穩定了這個拖欠率。正如你在這裡看到的,事實上,不良貸款90天是穩定的,這意味著進一步的影響。
First, I had said that we could expect a change of about 10 basis points, and we've been able to work within that estimate. Our expectation going forward remains the same, more or less 10 basis points, which is a more positive expectation compared to this, especially in the fourth quarter.
首先,我曾說過,我們預計會出現約 10 個基點的變化,並且我們已經能夠在這一估計範圍內開展工作。我們對未來的預期保持不變,大約為 10 個基點,與此相比,這是一個更積極的預期,尤其是在第四季度。
The second effect, which is particularly important and which I've just commented on is a natural slowdown in portfolios due to decisions that were made several quarters ago. Thus, the denominator effect of the ratio does not favor us. Still, we've been able to stabilize significantly the delinquency ratios of individuals. The NPL 90 days for SMEs in Brazil shows an increase that is totally within our expectations. We have no concerns on this one.
第二個影響尤其重要,我剛剛評論過,這是由於幾個季度前做出的決定導致投資組合自然放緩。因此,該比率的分母效應對我們不利。儘管如此,我們仍然能夠顯著穩定個人的拖欠率。巴西中小企業不良貸款 90 天的成長完全在我們的預期之內。我們對此沒有任何顧慮。
And I wanted to make this very clear to you. When we project what may come in the next 2 quarters, our best expectation is stability with a more positive than a negative outlook. This means that looking to the future, I believe we have more chance of surprising you positively than negatively. To give you a good overview of this trend, stability is a good goal for us to pursue, especially since the short-term delinquency rate is stable. We are very comfortable with our delinquency ratios among SMEs and while in large corporate. As I've just said, this isn't the best indicator. It's still at its lowest level in the NPL 90-day series.
我想向你們明確說明這一點。當我們預測未來兩個季度可能發生的情況時,我們最好的預期是穩定,前景更加積極而不是消極。這意味著展望未來,我相信我們更有可能為您帶來正面的驚喜,而不是負面的驚喜。為了讓您更了解這一趨勢,穩定是我們追求的一個很好的目標,特別是因為短期拖欠率是穩定的。我們對中小企業和大型企業的拖欠率感到非常滿意。正如我剛才所說,這不是最好的指標。仍處於 NPL 90 天系列中的最低水平。
As shown in the previous slide, especially for individuals in Brazil, the credit card portfolio has already reversed its trend despite the drop in its balance. We saw a drop of 20 basis points in the delinquency rate, which is quite a positive development. and is very much in line with what we'd have hoped to see, given the number of interventions we've made in this portfolio throughout the cycle. The cost of credit came highly in line totaling BRL 9.4 billion, and the cost of credit over portfolio ratio of 3.3%.
如上一張投影片所示,尤其是對於巴西的個人而言,儘管信用卡餘額下降,但信用卡投資組合已經扭轉了趨勢。我們看到拖欠率下降了 20 個基點,這是一個相當積極的進展。考慮到我們在整個週期中對該投資組合進行的干預數量,這與我們希望看到的情況非常一致。信貸成本高達 94 億雷亞爾,信貸成本佔投資組合比率為 3.3%。
I'd remind you that the fourth quarter of 2022 was affected by the retailer event already mentioned. Thus, we continue to operate at levels very similar to pre-pandemic and in line with the expected stabilization we've been talking about for a long time. The coverage ratio did not show any variation and remained very stable at 212%.
我想提醒您,2022 年第四季受到了已經提到的零售商事件的影響。因此,我們繼續以與大流行前非常相似的水平運營,並符合我們長期以來一直在談論的預期穩定。覆蓋率沒有出現任何變化,非常穩定地保持在 212%。
In the retail segment, our coverage ratio was far above what we were operating at on average. Looking back at the pre-pandemic time. Accordingly, our balance sheet shows a very healthy coverage and protection level. Our balance sheet our provision for loan losses our portfolio are very well protected. As you can see here, and we have continued to make a provision for our NPL formation, as you may have noticed.
在零售領域,我們的覆蓋率遠高於我們的平均營運水準。回顧疫情前的時光。因此,我們的資產負債表顯示出非常健康的覆蓋範圍和保護水準。我們的資產負債表、貸款損失撥備、我們的投資組合都得到了很好的保護。正如您在這裡看到的,您可能已經註意到,我們繼續為不良貸款的形成提供準備金。
We do not manage our balance sheet based on our NPL formation but our expected loss models have led us to recognize a provision of approximately 100% of the NPL formation, which also shows that we've been delivering significant results. with, in our opinion, an adequate level of provision.
我們並非根據不良貸款的形成來管理資產負債表,但我們的預期損失模型使我們認識到不良貸款形成的大約100%的準備金,這也表明我們一直在取得顯著的成果。我們認為,供應水準充足。
Our noninterest expenses grew by 7.5% year-over-year. I would remind you that the last quarter was a more difficult one and is usually a quarter with lower cost. As a result, total noninterest expenses grew by 4.1% in Brazil.
我們的非利息支出較去年同期成長 7.5%。我想提醒您,上個季度是比較困難的一個季度,通常是成本較低的季度。因此,巴西的非利息支出總額增加了 4.1%。
I would draw your attention to the efficiency ratio as we remain within the margin by reducing our efficiency ratio, which saw a performance of 39.6% on a consolidated basis and 37.7% in Brazil. Based on the same logic I've been talking about a lot, which involves a focus on the top line, a focus on costs, higher productivity and more investment in technology. We were able to achieve these results.
我想提請您注意效率比率,因為我們透過降低效率比率來維持利潤率,綜合效率為 39.6%,巴西為 37.7%。基於我一直在談論的同樣的邏輯,這涉及到對營收的關注、對成本的關注、更高的生產力和對技術的更多投資。我們能夠取得這些成果。
Looking now at investments. Our challenge has always been to come in well below inflation in the core cost of the bank. And we've been able to do this quarter after quarter. And in terms of investments, we continue to invest in our platforms. while upgrading and expanding our businesses. Basically, what we're not going to do is stop investing in the future because of worries about the outcome in the next 3 or 6 months. We will keep investing heavily in the franchise, strong in the experience of our clients and in all business expansions that will bring long-term results to Itau Unibanco.
現在看投資。我們面臨的挑戰始終是銀行核心成本遠低於通膨。我們已經能夠一個又一個季度地做到這一點。在投資方面,我們繼續投資我們的平台。同時升級和拓展我們的業務。基本上,我們不會因為擔心未來 3 或 6 個月的結果而停止對未來的投資。我們將繼續大力投資特許經營權、豐富客戶經驗以及所有業務擴張,這將為 Itau Unibanco 帶來長期成果。
We talk a lot about digital transformation, cultural transformation and efficiency. We found a way to try, perhaps make it perceptible to you. What has been our journey in these areas. I think this table pretty much summarizes the message that I'm trying to get across. Maybe it makes it a little clearer. This is a vision of how we serve our clients proactively and reactively. When clients get in touch, and there are 30 million interactions per month, you can see that it grows, but it grows much less than proactive services. What is the message here?
我們談論了很多關於數位轉型、文化轉型和效率的話題。我們找到了一種嘗試的方法,也許能讓你感知。我們在這些領域的歷程是什麼?我認為這張表幾乎概括了我試圖傳達的訊息。也許這會讓事情變得更清楚一些。這是我們如何主動和被動地為客戶提供服務的願景。當客戶取得聯繫時,每月有 3000 萬次互動,您可以看到它正在成長,但成長速度遠低於主動服務。這裡傳達的訊息是什麼?
Firstly, our ability to predict, to anticipate to record everything that our clients actually say. Our artificial intelligence models and our ability to retain these interactions or have them through digital channels. is already at 92%. We talk to clients much more proactively while trying to help them on a journey, trying to spell out a need or a security event and trying to anticipate any problems. And we've been able to do this with a significant increase in volume.
首先,我們有能力預測、預期記錄客戶實際所說的一切。我們的人工智慧模型以及我們保留這些互動或透過數位管道進行互動的能力。已經是92%了。我們更主動地與客戶交談,同時嘗試幫助他們完成旅程,嘗試闡明需求或安全事件並嘗試預測任何問題。我們已經能夠透過大幅增加數量來做到這一點。
We've already managed to reach a degree of stability between quarters, but with a material drop in the cost per unit. If we look at the index 100 graph, saw a 52% drop in the period from 2020 to today, which shows the results of the huge technological effort and investment we've been making here at the bank to improve the client experience. Our NPS was 71 points, which is an increase of 9 points compared to 2020 and reflects the digital and cultural transformation, client centricity and the delivery of very powerful results so far.
我們已經設法在季度之間達到一定程度的穩定,但單位成本卻大幅下降。如果我們看一下指數 100 圖表,就會發現從 2020 年至今,下降了 52%,這顯示了我們銀行為改善客戶體驗而進行的巨大技術努力和投資的結果。我們的 NPS 為 71 分,與 2020 年相比增加了 9 分,反映了數位和文化轉型、以客戶為中心以及迄今為止交付的非常強大的成果。
We recorded 210 million proactive calls made per quarter. Currently, 100% of our contacts are recorded and qualified on our modernized platform. where we can centrally read using robots consisting of both artificial intelligence and models, to understand the clients' risk of problems or suitability for business. This has generated a lot of business for the bank. So these proactive interactions are not only a service, they are everything that generates earnings in digital channels.
我們每季記錄了 2.1 億次主動通話。目前,我們 100% 的聯絡人都在我們的現代化平台上進行了記錄和鑑定。我們可以利用由人工智慧和模型組成的機器人進行集中讀取,以了解客戶的問題風險或業務適合性。這為銀行帶來了大量的業務。因此,這些主動互動不僅是一種服務,而且是在數位管道中產生收入的一切。
Currently, we can perform 90% of account approvals via branches automatically. In addition, we performed 95% of automated approvals through our digital channels without any type of intervention and we posted a 99.9% decrease in the time required to open an account.
目前,我們可以透過分行自動執行90%的帳戶批准。此外,我們透過數位管道執行了 95% 的自動審批,無需任何類型的干預,開戶時間縮短了 99.9%。
Previously, it took us 28 hours, which didn't make any sense, but this has had a lot to do with our installed structure and legacy systems. After upgrading these, we were able to open an account in 4 minutes. So this is a key change, especially in terms of client experience and perception. And here, we've also chosen a very important journey, which is the mortgage loan journey, the degree of digitalization increased by 87 percentage points.
以前我們花了28個小時,這沒有任何意義,但這與我們安裝的結構和遺留系統有很大關係。升級後,我們可以在 4 分鐘內開設帳戶。所以這是一個關鍵的變化,特別是在客戶體驗和感知方面。而在這裡,我們也選擇了一個非常重要的旅程,就是抵押貸款旅程,數位化程度提升了87個百分點。
And speaking of experience and client centricity, we've been able to make at least half the volume of private credit production of mortgage loans with the best NPS in the market. This shows that, once again, this investment, this vision and this transformation have generated and produced material outcomes.
說到經驗和以客戶為中心,我們已經能夠利用市場上最好的淨推薦值來生產至少一半的私人信貸生產量的抵押貸款。這再次表明,這種投資、這種願景和這種轉變已經產生並產生了物質成果。
In capital, I think we have great news to share with you. Our Tier 1 capital ratio was 12.2%, which represents a growth of 20 basis points, as you can see here. For this quarter, we are bringing pro forma figures. The pro forma table has two columns.
在資本方面,我認為我們有好消息要與您分享。我們的一級資本比率為 12.2%,成長了 20 個基點,正如您在此處看到的。對於本季度,我們帶來了預估數據。備考表有兩列。
First, I think you've heard a lot about the new Basel model, credit risk, new weightings. We did an extensive job here at the bank from which we've already benefited at the beginning of the month and 80 basis points of capital. This is a very relevant effect for us. We were talking about 50 basis points, and this was our best estimate. Of course, when we introduced the waitings, when we managed to understand the standard in detail and could dive into the processes, we found 80 basis points of opportunity here, which is very significant news.
首先,我認為您已經聽說過很多有關新巴塞爾模型、信用風險、新權重的資訊。我們在銀行做了廣泛的工作,我們在本月初就已經從中受益並獲得了 80 個基點的資本。這對我們來說是一個非常相關的影響。我們談論的是 50 個基點,這是我們的最佳估計。當然,當我們引入等待時,當我們設法詳細了解標準並深入流程時,我們在這裡發現了80個基點的機會,這是非常重要的消息。
Another highlight is that we have continued evolving our internal models. And this, also at the beginning of the month, resulted in a benefit of 0.2%. This shows that we are growing by 1% in the CET1 core capital from 12.2% to 13.1%. Our core capital is 13.1%, and our total capital is 14.7%. What we do not have yet and will be a negative issue for capital and for the industry as a whole, not only in Brazil but worldwide is Basel III Operational Risk, for which the Central Bank is currently writing the applicable standard. We've already looked into the public consultation and carried out simulations, but our best expectation is that we have to wait until the end of the year for further detail.
另一個亮點是我們不斷發展我們的內部模型。同樣在本月初,這也帶來了 0.2% 的收益。這顯示我們的CET1核心資本成長了1%,從12.2%成長到13.1%。我們的核心資本為13.1%,總資本為14.7%。不僅在巴西,而且在全世界,我們還沒有而且將會對資本和整個行業帶來負面問題的是巴塞爾協議 III 操作風險,央行目前正在為此制定適用的標準。我們已經調查了公眾諮詢並進行了模擬,但我們最好的期望是我們必須等到今年年底才能獲得更多細節。
Possibly the new standard will be implemented by 2025, but we still don't know if it will be phased in, although we hope so. Naturally, we will have to share the expected impacts with you. But I think overall, the news in terms of capital is quite positive as we have really completed a cycle of continuous evolution in our capital ratios.
新標準可能會在 2025 年實施,但我們仍然不知道它是否會分階段實施,儘管我們希望如此。當然,我們必須與您分享預期的影響。但我認為總體而言,資本方面的消息是相當積極的,因為我們確實完成了資本比率持續演變的周期。
Last but not least, I'd like to pass on a few messages about our guidance. The first is that we maintained our guidance in almost every line. This means that the ranges that were previously stipulated, still meet our current best projections. This shows the predictability, transparency and the ability to look through the cycle in terms of every kind of impact and how we are managing the bank's balance sheet. This way, pretty much everything is kept unchanged in the guidance. What we are reviewing here is the best information available to date. And it indicates that we, in fact, had a higher degree of optimism that didn't materialize in terms of service and insurance revenue.
最後但並非最不重要的一點是,我想傳達一些有關我們指導的訊息。首先,我們在幾乎所有方面都保持了指導。這意味著之前規定的範圍仍然符合我們目前的最佳預測。這顯示了可預測性、透明度以及從各種影響以及我們如何管理銀行資產負債表的角度審視整個週期的能力。這樣,指南中的幾乎所有內容都保持不變。我們在這裡審查的是迄今為止可獲得的最佳資訊。這表明我們實際上有較高程度的樂觀情緒,但在服務和保險收入方面並未實現。
We expected stronger activity in the first half of the year, both in performance fees and in the investment banking operation. As I told you just now, the volumes were a little lower, and we thought it would be better to revise the growth forecast, which we previously estimated at between 7.5% and 10.5% to between 5% and 7%, which represents our best estimate today.
我們預計上半年業績表現費和投資銀行業務的活動將會更加強勁。正如我剛才告訴你的,銷量有點低,我們認為最好修改成長預測,我們之前估計在 7.5% 到 10.5% 之間,調整到 5% 到 7% 之間,這是我們最好的預測估計今天。
We've made a smaller adjustment to the effective tax rate, which we expected to be between 28.5% and 31.5%. And now we expect between 27% and 29%. We are very thorough, and we thought that for transparency's sake, it was worth making this adjustment to make our best expectations clear to you.
我們對有效稅率進行了較小的調整,預計在 28.5% 至 31.5% 之間。現在我們預計在 27% 到 29% 之間。我們非常徹底,我們認為為了透明起見,值得進行此調整以使您清楚地了解我們的最佳期望。
In the second half of the year in the commissions and fees and result from insurance operations line, we expect an increase in activity, not enough to recover what was in the guidance, but we expect a better second half with more activity. And despite these changes in the structure, our expectation is that what was implied in our net income for the bank wouldn't change from what we're looking at for our best projections today.
在下半年的佣金和費用以及保險業務的結果中,我們預計活動將會增加,不足以恢復指導中的內容,但我們預計下半年會更好,活動會更多。儘管結構發生了這些變化,但我們的預期是,銀行淨利潤中所隱含的內容不會與我們今天的最佳預測相比發生變化。
Accordingly, our best earnings expectation remains the same, just with a slightly different structure. But with the bottom line still very much in line with our expectations at the beginning of the year. Before I join Renato for the Q&A, I'd like to thank you on behalf of Itau Unibanco, myself, of course. And on behalf of all our teams, for the recognition, you've given us that institutional investors, we were very honored by that recognition, both on the buy side and the sell side.
因此,我們的最佳獲利預期保持不變,只是結構略有不同。但淨利潤仍然非常符合我們年初的預期。在與 Renato 進行問答之前,我想代表 Itau Unibanco,當然還有我本人,向您表示感謝。代表我們所有的團隊,對於機構投資者給予我們的認可,我們對買方和賣方的認可感到非常榮幸。
We came first in all 8 categories, which was very nice for us. We were in those positions last year and achieved them again this year I would like to tell you that this naturally fits us with pride and only increases our sense of responsibility. Of course, we are happy, but it is our nature to be down-to-earth, humble and without any type of conceit. What we really want is to continue delivery, managing the bank in the best possible way and more than that to maintain a very close relationship with you, investors and analysts, our clients and stakeholders. But I would especially like to thank you, our investor base and our base of analysts who do an exquisite job. So all feedback that comes from you, who are in contact with the Investor Relations department.
我們在所有 8 個類別中都獲得了第一名,這對我們來說非常好。去年我們就處於這些位置,今年再次實現了這些目標。我想告訴你們,這自然讓我們感到自豪,只會增加我們的責任感。當然,我們很高興,但腳踏實地、謙虛、不帶任何自負是我們的本性。我們真正想要的是繼續交付,以盡可能最好的方式管理銀行,更重要的是與您、投資者和分析師、我們的客戶和利害關係人保持非常密切的關係。但我要特別感謝你們、我們的投資者群體和我們出色工作的分析師群。因此,所有回饋都來自與投資者關係部門聯繫的您。
The feedback that we receive on calls or on a daily basis is very valuable for us to continue evolving. We've always wanted you as partners in this evolution, and I think we are succeeding in that. once again, a special thank you to all of you and also to my Investor Relations team, who also do a really excellent job.
我們透過電話或每天收到的回饋對於我們繼續發展非常有價值。我們一直希望您成為這一發展過程中的合作夥伴,我認為我們在這方面取得了成功。再次特別感謝你們所有人以及我的投資人關係團隊,他們的工作也非常出色。
I'd like to finish by saying to all stakeholders who are watching us that I think this was yet another sound quarter and we have the opportunity to share our earnings with you. We've talked about clients about culture, about digital transformation which we've tried to make just a little more tangible. We want to say again that for us, it is a never-ending game. It's not just 1 quarter. It's the next and the next and the next. We are here for the long term. There are long-term decisions and we are not trying to optimize just the next quarter's earnings.
最後,我想對所有關注我們的利害關係人說,我認為這是另一個穩健的季度,我們有機會與大家分享我們的收益。我們談論了客戶的文化和數位轉型,我們試圖讓這些變得更加切實。我們想再次強調,對我們來說,這是一場永無止境的遊戲。這不僅僅是1個季度。這是下一個、下一個、下一個。我們在這裡是為了長期目標。我們有長期決策,我們不僅僅試圖優化下一季的收益。
What we want is, in fact, to build a platform, a bank, capable bank, as we've done throughout our whole history. To deliver sustainable earnings and strong performance in our view, given the existing scenario and challenges. So thank you, again. I will now join Renato for the Q&A, and then we will be able to discuss a little more about your questions, challenges and considerations. Again, thank you very much, and we'll see you shortly.
事實上,我們想要的是建立一個平台、一家銀行、一家有能力的銀行,就像我們在整個歷史中所做的那樣。鑑於現有的情況和挑戰,我們認為要實現可持續的盈利和強勁的業績。所以再次謝謝你。我現在將與雷納託一起進行問答,然後我們將能夠更多地討論您的問題、挑戰和考慮因素。再次非常感謝您,我們很快就會再見。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Well, we will start now, Milton. It's nice to have you here. We're going to start with the Q&A session now. (Operator Instructions) Now we have the questions.
好吧,我們現在就開始,米爾頓。很高興你在這裡。我們現在開始問答環節。 (操作員說明) 現在我們有問題。
I'm actually going to take the microphone. I'm going to ask you a question. That has to do with the yesterday's operational event. A lot of our partners were affected by the intermittent availability of our system. So I thought that it was very good that we started the Q&A and ask you what happened? How do we solve it? And what did we learn?
我實際上要拿起麥克風。我要問你一個問題。這與昨天的操作事件有關。我們的許多合作夥伴都受到系統間歇性可用性的影響。所以我認為我們開始問答並問你發生了什麼事,這非常好?我們該如何解決呢?我們學到了什麼?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Thank you, Renato. Thank you. Excellent question to start Well, I'm going to begin, by saying that the way that happened well, yesterday, actually, I would like to apologize to all of you, investors, clients, partners, stakeholders that were impacted.
謝謝你,雷納托。謝謝。這是一個很好的開始問題 好吧,我首先要說的是,昨天發生的事情很好,實際上,我想向所有受到影響的投資者、客戶、合作夥伴、利益相關者道歉。
Of course, we work every single day. So that events such as these do not happen again. And if they should happen, we try to recover as quickly as we can. It was an internal platform in the bank that de-gradated the entire environment. So we took a bit longer than what we wanted to actually recover the environment. It was something very specific. I think that we have a very important learning. This is a part of the evolution of the bank transformation of itself to go to deal with situations such as these.
當然,我們每天都在工作。以免類似事件再次發生。如果發生這種情況,我們會盡力盡快恢復。這是銀行的一個內部平台,破壞了整個環境。因此,我們花了比我們想要的實際恢復環境更長的時間。這是非常具體的事情。我認為我們有一個非常重要的學習。這是銀行自身轉型的一部分,旨在應對此類情況。
We have a lot of resilience, calm, and we have to recognize that we are not perfect and we need to advance. And we have learnings that remain the glass have full. I would like to apologize, therefore.
我們有很強的韌性、冷靜,我們必須認識到我們並不完美,我們需要進步。我們所學到的知識仍然是滿的。因此,我想道歉。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Well, thank you Milton. Let's talk to the analyst. We have Henrique Navarro from Santander.
好吧,謝謝米爾頓。我們來和分析師談談吧。我們有來自桑坦德銀行的恩里克·納瓦羅。
Henrique Navarro - Analyst
Henrique Navarro - Analyst
Congratulations on the results. Actually, Milton, I wanted to -- for you to shed some light in 2024. We hear in the bank, we updated our model with the numbers of the second quarter. you delivered everything as expected. It wasn't very difficult to analyze. And well, looking at 2024. I can see 10% to 15% of growth in the revenue. This is this growth. Some investors that we talked to, they are not so sure of the growth. there is a doubt about how we're going to behave with the market, the interest rate, the margins of the clients in the second quarter, we saw that we have a deceleration in the credit? I mean the provisions banking fees is it -- It's a bit weaker. So I believe that the first question, Milton, is, well, without trying to get the guidance beforehand, do you agree that Itau would be able to deliver 10%, 15% for revenue in 2024? And where are you going to get that from? What are the indices that are going to make a difference in 2024?
祝賀結果。事實上,Milton,我想讓你在 2024 年闡明一些情況。我們從銀行聽說,我們用第二季的數據更新了我們的模型。你按預期交付了一切。分析起來並不困難。展望 2024 年,我可以看到收入成長 10% 到 15%。這就是這個成長。我們採訪過的一些投資者表示,他們對成長不太確定。人們對第二季我們將如何應對市場、利率、客戶利潤有疑問,我們看到信貸減速了嗎?我的意思是規定的銀行費用——它有點弱。因此,Milton,我認為第一個問題是,在沒有事先獲得指導的情況下,您是否同意 Itau 能夠在 2024 年實現 10%、15% 的收入成長?你要從哪裡得到它?哪些指數將在 2024 年產生影響?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Well, thank you, Henrique. Let me start. We are continuing to be positive and optimistic about the scenario and the evolution of the bank. The margin improved. The first quarter, there were challenges, as you know, challenges in the capital markets, in the credit portfolio people. Well, -- we've been working over the last few quarters, the future, the impact there, the performance fees as well, the portfolio is naturally in the aggregate, they grew less as you can observe, that was by design. So when we look at the results of the portfolio, we are very comfortable because we are leaving a cycle of adjustments that are very important. Post pandemic.
嗯,謝謝你,恩里克。讓我開始吧。我們對銀行的情況和發展繼續保持積極和樂觀的態度。利潤率有所改善。如您所知,第一季存在挑戰,資本市場和信貸投資組合人員面臨挑戰。嗯,--我們在過去幾個季度一直在努力,未來,那裡的影響,績效費用,投資組合自然是在總體上,正如你所觀察到的,它們的增長較少,這是設計使然。因此,當我們看到投資組合的結果時,我們感到非常放心,因為我們正在離開一個非常重要的調整週期。疫情過後。
A normal normalization of delinquency. So we are positioning the bank in a very important position. If it wasn't for the de-risking of the portfolio, our delinquency indices would be 180 points above what we have. So the strategy was adequate. We do the bottom line management as well. We don't look at an isolated line, of course, top line is important. It shows strength engagement, the capacity to extract value. But we have to work in the other two lines with the same emphasis.
犯罪行為的正常化。所以我們把銀行放在一個很重要的位置。如果不是投資組合去風險化,我們的拖欠指數將比現有指數高 180 點。所以這個策略是足夠的。我們也進行底線管理。我們不看孤立的線,當然頂線很重要。它顯示了參與度和獲取價值的能力。但我們必須同樣重視其他兩條線的工作。
Our expectation is that the cost of credit may be peaked. And we hope for a PDD expense that is more [expand] more -- well, nominally, I'm not talking about a delay of course, we have the events in the wholesale. We have this. And well, in the part of costs, I imagine that we have an efficiency work that we are doing Naturally, we're going to seek to have a balance between the capacity to generate value. in the portfolios, we've been growing in several core segments for the bank above 20%, the non-aggregated number doesn't help because if you just look the portfolio of credit cards any adjustment will impact the whole.
我們的預期是信貸成本可能會達到頂峰。我們希望 PDD 費用能夠更多[擴大]——嗯,名義上,我當然不是在談論延遲,我們有批發的活動。我們有這個。嗯,在成本方面,我想我們正在進行一項效率工作,自然地,我們將尋求在創造價值的能力之間取得平衡。在投資組合中,我們在銀行的幾個核心領域的成長一直在 20% 以上,非匯總數字沒有幫助,因為如果你只看信用卡投資組合,任何調整都會影響整體。
But even in the credit card, we have been growing in the target clients. So this is our capacity to choose the moment of the cycle that we are working with. Looking ahead, we're going to have a second quarter that is good. More market activities, more activities for the assets for the portfolios. And we can see a pipeline that is important. And the -- in the wholesale with structured operations that can help in the second semester. And that is the work that is very important to review the strategy of wholesale of retail actually as a whole, separating the individuals from companies.
但即使在信用卡領域,我們的目標客戶也一直在成長。所以這是我們選擇我們正在處理的周期時刻的能力。展望未來,我們的第二季將會表現良好。更多的市場活動,更多的投資組合資產活動。我們可以看到一條重要的管道。而且-在批發中進行結構化操作可以在第二學期有所幫助。這項工作對於審查整個零售批發策略非常重要,將個人與公司分開。
We have an ROE of each business. We did the inflection for 2 quarters. And my opinion is that we're going to improve step by step, the profitability of retail in a cycle. So retail with better profitability. Wholesale still very strong delivery results. The cost of credit agenda is stable, so I think that level of the cost of credit nominally is falling behind. And of course, wholesale, we have uncertainties, the margins of the market, the results and the cost of credit is always a variable.
我們有每項業務的淨資產收益率。我們做了兩個季度的變形。我的觀點是,我們將在一個週期中逐步提高零售業的獲利能力。因此零售業具有較好的獲利能力。批發交貨業績依然非常強勁。信貸成本議程是穩定的,因此我認為名義上的信貸成本水平正在落後。當然,批發方面,我們存在不確定性,市場利潤、結果和信貸成本始終是一個變數。
But we always we're hoping for about benign credit cycle for wholesale in comparison to the beginning of the year. So we have conditions. We have conditions to deliver a good profitability. I believe that we can see 2024. If it's going to be 10%, 15%. We don't know the number yet. We're working with the numbers we're beginning the budgeting of the bank over the next few months, and we're going to have a better vision of our capacity. But directionally, our expectation is to get into the year good, 2024, regardless of the prices, and we know how to work with the cycles. Either we are more sensitive to one cycle, the other that opinion. Well, if you look at the margin of the market through the cycle with all the interest rate third, we were always capable of delivering the results regardless of the moment of the curve that we're working with.
但與年初相比,我們始終希望批發業能出現良性信貸週期。所以我們有條件。我們有條件實現良好的獲利能力。我相信我們可以看到 2024 年。如果是 10%、15%。我們還不知道這個數字。我們正在根據數據開始製定未來幾個月銀行的預算,並且我們將對我們的能力有更好的認識。但從方向上來說,我們的期望是進入 2024 年,無論價格如何,我們知道如何適應週期。要嘛我們對一個週期更敏感,要嘛對另一個週期的意見更敏感。好吧,如果你看看整個週期中市場的邊際,所有利率都排在第三位,我們總是有能力提供結果,無論我們正在處理的曲線的時刻如何。
So we do not believe in a single direction and this capacity to manage actively the risk factors and the balance sheet has allowed us to deliver earnings that are solid, and we are going to continue to do so.
因此,我們不相信單一方向,這種積極管理風險因素和資產負債表的能力使我們能夠實現穩健的盈利,我們將繼續這樣做。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
And now we have the second question Renato Melon from Autonomous.
現在我們有來自 Autonomous 的 Renato Melon 的第二個問題。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Thinking about the capital position that is very comfortable and the growth that hasn't really taken acceleration. What is your opinion on the payout?
考慮一下非常舒適的資本狀況和尚未真正加速的成長。您對付款有何看法?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
To be very direct, we have a great recovery in the capital levels over the first -- last quarters. We have an organic growth, improving profitability, earnings and in the turn of the quarter, we have the benefits, Basel the risk of credit, 80 basis points, the improvement of the internal models. Now our risk appetite from the Board is 11.5% and maybe 1.5%, 13%. Therefore so the most important thing in the second quarter is that we know the details of the Basel III operational risk guidelines. It led us -- leads us to believe that we're going to get the information in the second quarter. We're waiting for the data, so we can have a better projection.
非常直接地說,我們的資本水準在前幾個季度和最後幾季都有了很大的恢復。我們實現了有機成長,提高了獲利能力和收益,在季度之交,我們獲得了收益、巴塞爾信貸風險、80個基點以及內部模型的改進。現在董事會給我們的風險偏好是11.5%,也許是1.5%、13%。因此,第二季最重要的是我們了解巴塞爾協定III操作風險指引的細節。它讓我們相信我們將在第二季度獲得資訊。我們正在等待數據,以便我們可以做出更好的預測。
Now directionally, yes, there is an expectation in the payout increase. It is not our objective to retain the results with the capital beyond necessary and that necessarily has to do with the opportunities of growth the opportunities for capital allocation. So we are always looking at that. We're doing our plans, looking at the scenario that is longer in the capital. But there is an increment in the payout and we're going to publish that information as soon as we have the data, the operational risk and our best estimation might impact 100 basis points in the bank. It can be more, it depends on the norm of the operational risk and we anticipate that in our projection.
現在從方向上看,是的,人們預期支出會增加。我們的目標不是用超出必要的資本來保留結果,這必然與成長機會和資本配置機會有關。所以我們一直在關注這一點。我們正在製定我們的計劃,著眼於首都的長期情況。但支出有所增加,我們將在獲得數據後立即發布該信息,操作風險和我們的最佳估計可能會影響銀行 100 個基點。它可以更多,這取決於操作風險的標準,我們在預測中預計這一點。
But we are very optimistic. And the idea is for the payout, we should do that in a second semester as soon as we have the data, we can share it with you.
但我們非常樂觀。我們的想法是為了支付,我們應該在第二學期一旦獲得數據就這樣做,我們可以與您分享。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Next question. From Morgan Stanley we have Jorge Kuri.
下一個問題。來自摩根士丹利的豪爾赫·庫裡 (Jorge Kuri)。
Jorge Kuri - MD
Jorge Kuri - MD
Everyone congrats on the numbers. I wanted to ask you about the tax reform. There is a discussion about eliminating the IOC tax, as well as potentially reducing the corporate tax rate and taxing dividends. IOC has -- according to your disclosures, IOC has represented roughly a 10% tax break for you guys over the last 5 years on average. So in a scenario in which, indeed, the IOC is eliminated and the corporate tax rate doesn't change much, what can you do to offset that 10 percentage point hit on your profitability that will go out the window with IOC?
每個人都對這些數字表示祝賀。我想問你關於稅制改革的問題。人們正在討論取消國際奧委會稅,以及可能降低公司稅率和對股利徵稅。根據你們的揭露,國際奧委會在過去 5 年裡平均為你們提供了大約 10% 的稅收減免。因此,在 IOC 確實被取消且企業稅率沒有太大變化的情況下,您可以採取什麼措施來抵消 IOC 帶來的 10 個百分點的盈利下降?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Let me go there. Our view today is constructive about the IOC. We don't know yet how the second phase of this tax reform will be designed and discussed in the congress, especially in the Congress. But we know and we understand that the IOC has an important role, especially for a segment like ours that pays the higher tax not only locally but also worldwide compared to other banks and other sectors in the world.
讓我去那裡吧。我們今天對國際奧委會的看法是建設性的。我們還不知道這次稅改的第二階段將如何設計並在國會,特別是國會討論。但我們知道並且理解國際奧委會發揮著重要作用,特別是對於像我們這樣的部門來說,與世界上其他銀行和其他部門相比,不僅在本地而且在全球範圍內繳納更高的稅款。
So I think the government has that very clear, understands the impact of the IOC, especially for banks due to the capital base that we need. It's not a tax planning, it's because the level of capital we need to retain in the operation has to do with regulatory issues. So that's why we have a very capital-intense activity in Brazil. So our view is that we have to wait and see. Of course, we always heard that the idea is to be a neutral reform, talking about the IOC. So if there is any change in the IOC, we heard about the ACE that it's something that it's a practice in Europe, especially and you know that. There are other ways of doing that. You have somehow to reduce the corporate tax.
因此,我認為政府非常清楚,了解國際奧委會的影響,特別是對銀行來說,因為我們需要資本基礎。這不是稅務規劃,而是因為我們在營運中需要保留的資本水準與監管問題有關。這就是我們在巴西開展資本密集活動的原因。所以我們的觀點是我們必須拭目以待。當然,我們總是聽到國際奧委會的想法是進行中立的改革。因此,如果國際奧委會有任何變化,我們聽說 ACE 認為這是歐洲的做法,尤其是你知道的。還有其他方法可以做到這一點。你必須想辦法減少公司稅。
Otherwise, I think it's gonna produce an effect that it's not positive at the end of the day for the society, because you have a risk to pass through to the prices and the cost of credit might be impacted by the increase or the reduction of the IOC. So I think it has a relevant role in our tax payment at the end of the year. I think the government has that very clear. And you won't produce the effect of the pass-through of the reduction on (inaudible). If you do a major impact in the IOC, I think, will be repricing in the industry as a whole.
否則,我認為這最終會對社會產生不積極的影響,因為你有傳遞到價格的風險,信貸成本可能會受到信貸成本增加或減少的影響。國際奧委會。所以我認為它對我們年底的納稅有相關的作用。我認為政府對此非常清楚。且您不會產生減少傳遞的效果(聽不清楚)。我認為,如果對國際奧委會產生重大影響,整個產業將會重新定價。
So we are constructive. So at this point, if you ask me, I think the government will try to do something very, very balanced and neutral in terms of tax impact for us and for the industry. So this is our review I'm talking about the financial industry due to the impact and the level of tax that we already pay, the level of corporate tax that we have in Brazil, 45% plus the other taxes that we have, it goes more than 45%. So I think the IOC has an important benefit, especially for the price of credit and impacting the consumption in the activity, so on and so forth. So I'm constructive about this topic.
所以我們是建設性的。因此,在這一點上,如果你問我,我認為政府將嘗試在對我們和產業的稅收影響方面做一些非常非常平衡和中性的事情。這是我們的評論,我談論的是金融業,因為我們已經繳納的稅款的影響和水平,我們在巴西的公司稅水平,45%加上我們擁有的其他稅款,它是超過45%。所以我認為國際奧委會有一個重要的好處,特別是在信貸價格和影響活動中的消費等方面。所以我對這個主題持建設性的態度。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Next question we have Daniel Vaz from Credit Suisse.
下一個問題是來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Daniel Vaz。
Daniel Vaz - Research Analyst
Daniel Vaz - Research Analyst
Now I wanted to direct for the credit for the retail. The portfolio is growing 9% per year still. So there is a high income, average income is growing double digits, right? So we have that massification operation. So we need to understand the profile of the curve in those segments. Can you continue to grow double digits in the high income? And thinking about the mass, should there be an improvement in the risk indicators. What is the strategy of Itau to regain share in that segment or not gaining the segment, not gaining anything in that segment? If you can give me that opinion?
現在我想直接獲得零售信用。該投資組合每年仍以 9% 的速度成長。所以收入很高,平均收入成長兩位數,對嗎?所以我們進行了大規模操作。因此,我們需要了解這些段落中的曲線輪廓。高收入能否持續維持兩位數成長?並考慮大眾,風險指標是否應該有所改善。 Itau 的策略是什麼,以重新獲得該細分市場的份額,或者不獲得該細分市場,在該細分市場中什麼也得不到?如果你能給我這樣的意見嗎?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
And the question there are a few things. Well, we are growing above double digits and the target high income Well, of course, that there is a lower demand than what we want than it could have been. So there is a cycle of reduction of rates. The demand tends to grow since these are clients with less credit demand. So they take credit in a very specific line. The increase of the demand will come, and there will be a natural elasticity with the interest rate. We can see that we're growing.
問題有幾件事。嗯,我們的成長速度超過了兩位數,目標是高收入。當然,需求低於我們想要的水平。這樣就形成了一個降息週期。由於這些客戶的信貸需求較少,因此需求往往會成長。所以他們在一個非常具體的領域中獲得功勞。需求的增加就會到來,利率就會有自然的彈性。我們可以看到我們正在成長。
And it's not a credit, it's the engagement. It's important to lead the lever of the credit because the sedan credit it's a lever. It's a lever for the penetration of the engagement with our clients. And what creates value is the vision of the client and the relationship as a whole. So we can see in the wholesale and opportunity in the retail, an opportunity to grow in individuals and companies. We have an opportunity to advance in clients we didn't explore the full client, full bank offerings for the client. We always service a client with 1 product, a variation of 1 product, the relationship with the client, but we have the modernization of the platform and without these solutions, we couldn't do this engagement and this cross-sell that is so important. Well, give a full bank experience where the basis of the clients that already have a relationship with the bank, and we know the behavior. So this is the great opportunity that we see. We have a lot of work done there.
這不是信用,而是參與。引導信用的槓桿很重要,因為轎車信用是一個槓桿。它是滲透與顧客互動的槓桿。創造價值的是客戶的願景和整個關係。因此,我們可以在批發和零售中看到機會,這是個人和公司成長的機會。我們有機會推進客戶,但我們沒有為客戶探索完整的客戶、完整的銀行產品。我們總是為客戶提供一種產品、一種產品的變體以及與客戶的關係,但我們擁有現代化的平台,如果沒有這些解決方案,我們就無法進行如此重要的參與和交叉銷售。好吧,提供完整的銀行體驗,其中的基礎是已經與銀行有關係的客戶,並且我們了解其行為。所以這是我們看到的絕佳機會。我們在那裡做了很多工作。
Well, thinking about the Itau day, we've already given an opinion, and we will continue having results on that. And should there be anything relevant, we will implement it. We will discuss this way to you. And yes, I think the credit will be a lever. There are opportunities for expansion. And even in the segments, we have to be careful with the simplification of the high, medium and low income because for every public, there is a way serve -- to provide services and seek opportunities even in the low income. It doesn't mean that we left. We still have an important role in our portfolio.
嗯,考慮到伊塔烏日,我們已經給了意見,我們將繼續就此得出結果。如果有任何相關的內容,我們將予以實施。我們將向您討論這種方式。是的,我認為信用將成為一個槓桿。有擴展的機會。即使在細分市場中,我們也必須謹慎對待高、中、低收入的簡化,因為對於每個公眾來說,都有一種服務方式——即使在低收入中也能提供服務並尋求機會。這並不意味著我們離開了。我們在我們的投資組合中仍然發揮著重要作用。
We did a de-risking that is important that they released 180 delinquency points, and that could have impacted our results, but we still have 20%, 25% in the client that has lower income that we have a very close relationship. We have the JVs, we're the financials with the retailers. And of course, we can work that client with a correct product, correct risk. And we believe in that in the more benign scenario of ahead, if it happens, and we are here to make the decisions every single day, and we will obviously grow in our business. And we will accelerate where we have to accelerate. Taking care that we can deliver our performance that is sustainable throughout the cycle.
我們做了一個去風險措施,這一點很重要,他們釋放了180 個拖欠點,這可能會影響我們的結果,但我們仍然有20%、25% 的收入較低的客戶與我們有非常密切的關係。我們有合資企業,我們與零售商一起負責財務。當然,我們可以為該客戶提供正確的產品、正確的風險。我們相信,在未來更良性的情況下,如果它發生,我們每天都會在這裡做出決定,我們的業務顯然會成長。我們將在必須加速的地方加速。確保我們能夠在整個週期中提供可持續的績效。
So we are optimistic. We know that individuals is something that will have increases in profitability in the near future. That's what we hope. Thank you.
所以我們很樂觀。我們知道,個人在不久的將來會增加獲利能力。這就是我們所希望的。謝謝。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
So next question will be from Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan.
下一個問題將由摩根大通的尤里·費爾南德斯提出。
Yuri Rocha Fernandes - Analyst
Yuri Rocha Fernandes - Analyst
I got a question about the network. I think that you're the leaders of the market. We don't have the share because we don't have the industry data, but it seems that you're the leaders. So I wanted to see your strategy of the Rede or network? We see an increase in the revenue, but we know that this is very competitive. I know that you have a customer centricity or opinion, and we have to separate just the acquiring products, but we have the selic cuts that should benefit the industry. So being very practical. What is your opinion enterprise? The network should be more aggressive? So can you give us some color in that operation?
我有一個關於網路的問題。我認為你們是市場的領導者。我們沒有份額,因為我們沒有行業數據,但看起來你們是領導者。所以我想看看你們的Rede或是網路策略?我們看到收入增加,但我們知道這是非常有競爭力的。我知道你有以客戶為中心或意見,我們必須只分開收購產品,但我們有應該有利於整個產業的選擇性削減。所以非常實用。您對企業有何看法?網路應該更激進一些?那麼你能給我們一些關於這次行動的資訊嗎?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Thank you, Yuri. I think that the numbers backs publishes the numbers on August 10, the data will be public. We will know the results, but I wanted to tell you a few things. Individually, we have to look at the balance of the network. We cannot compare anymore because Rede for some time it's not a vehicle that is separate, independent of the bank, and it is something that is completely integrated and a couple of charge strategy. We talked that in Itau Day, this is reporting directly with Andre Rodrigues and it is completely integrated in the structure. So this is the vision of the client, yes, there are going to be leaders, a second. That's not what moves us. It's not the market share per market share. And I can say that I've sat in their -- in that chair 10 years ago, I was there. And I know that dynamic.
謝謝你,尤里。我認為8月10日的數據會公佈,數據將會公開。我們會知道結果,但我想告訴你一些事情。就個人而言,我們必須考慮網路的平衡。我們不能再進行比較,因為 Rede 在一段時間內並不是一個獨立的、獨立於銀行的工具,而是完全整合的、有多種收費策略的東西。我們在伊塔烏日談到,這是直接向安德烈·羅德里格斯匯報,並且完全融入結構中。所以這就是客戶的願景,是的,將會有領導者,第二。這不是讓我們感動的原因。這不是每個市場佔有率的市場佔有率。我可以說,十年前我就坐在他們那張椅子上。我知道這種動態。
I know how much the invoicing of big companies affect us and our strategy has not been renting market share or gaining macro share because if that's the fight, this is a fight per price, this is a fight for negative margins for contribution, with the only objective is to increase the market share. And this is not our objective. And that's why we gave more disclosure in the growth of revenues than the market share itself. I think the market share itself. I think the market share is the consequence of our capacity to -- for capillary to be close to the clients to deliver value.
我知道大公司的發票對我們有多大影響,我們的策略不是租用市場份額或獲得宏觀份額,因為如果這是一場戰鬥,那麼這是一場按價格進行的戰鬥,這是一場為貢獻負利潤而進行的戰鬥,目標是增加市場佔有率。這不是我們的目標。這就是為什麼我們對收入成長的披露比對市場份額本身的披露更多。我認為市場佔有率本身。我認為市場佔有率是我們有能力接近客戶並創造價值的結果。
We've done the very important review of the strategy of Rede of the network that is very good. We have an integration with the bank of retail, which is working, and this is not brute force. This is the important thing. It's not getting more people, more effort all the time because that doesn't solve it because these are not discussions that happened. We had -- need a value proposition. We need to understand the need of the client. And Rede, the network is not a stand-alone monoliner. It's not a company that is independent and this is a value proposition with the relationship with the client.
我們對網路 Rede 的策略進行了非常重要的審查,這是非常好的。我們與零售銀行進行了整合,這正在發揮作用,而且這不是蠻力。這是重要的事情。它並沒有一直吸引更多的人、更多的努力,因為這並不能解決問題,因為這些都不是發生過的討論。我們需要一個價值主張。我們需要了解客戶的需求。和 Rede 一樣,網路並不是獨立的獨白。它不是一家獨立的公司,這是與客戶關係的價值主張。
It is an important role for several other business lines, having 100% of the acquiring business is a competitive advantage and very few can do the integration that we can. So we are very optimistic with the advances. This is going to be a great year for Rede. We are going to have a great growth and results in the bank as a whole. We do not see the cannibalization if the dispute is for market share naturally we will see the renting of market share that will happen and we will not take part in that. This is not our spirit. Our spirit is to create long-term solutions that are sustainable, always integrated with the value proposition for the client.
對於其他幾個業務線來說,它起著重要作用,擁有 100% 的收購業務是一種競爭優勢,很少有人能像我們這樣整合。因此,我們對進展非常樂觀。對雷德來說,今年將是偉大的一年。整個銀行將取得巨大的成長和成果。如果爭議是為了市場份額,我們不會看到蠶食,自然我們會看到市場份額的出租,我們不會參與其中。這不是我們的精神。我們的精神是創造可持續的長期解決方案,始終與客戶的價值主張結合。
We're very optimistic. We've been having capillarity in the target segment sets. What we've seeked, we could reprice with all the events of the increase of interest rate reviews that were done all through our time and with an NPS level and threshold much higher than what we saw. So we are very optimistic with the evolution of Rede as a whole.
我們非常樂觀。我們在目標區隔市場中一直存在著毛細現象。我們所尋求的是,我們可以根據我們一直以來進行的所有增加利率審查的事件來重新定價,並且 NPS 水平和門檻遠高於我們所看到的。所以我們對Rede整體的發展非常樂觀。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Next question, we have Rafael Frade from Citibank.
下一個問題是來自花旗銀行的 Rafael Frade。
Rafael Berger Frade - Research Analyst
Rafael Berger Frade - Research Analyst
I think you did a very clear case on the capacity, your capacity out through all the cycle of always managing well the reduction and increase the rate of the interest rates and the financial margin. But recently, quarter-per-quarter, we've seen the margin with the liabilities that is indicated by you as a beneficiary of the increase of the spread. And there, well, that line, we are going to see the opposite with the reduction of the interest rate. So how should we think about that? Is this going to not allow the reduction of NIMs or there will be a higher impact. So the margin of the liability, it was very significant and maybe it can be -- buy in with the reduction of the interest rates.
我認為你對能力做了一個非常明確的案例,你在整個週期中始終管理好利率和財務利潤率的降低和提高的能力。但最近,我們每個季度都看到了您作為利差增加的受益人所表示的負債的保證金。在那條線上,隨著利率的降低,我們將看到相反的情況。那我們該如何思考呢?這是否會不允許減少淨利差,或會產生更大的影響。因此,負債的邊際非常重要,也許可以透過降低利率來買入。
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Well, liability is something that is very present in our capacity. In our work of attracting resources. We always capture the investments and resources of clients and there is a double effect. It's not just a selic rate, but the volume effect that we've done, we have an increase in the platform of the offerings. We have a migration with -- for the fixed income with the interest rates. We have more products of fixed income in the bank, and we are ready to have the client without conflicts due to the profitability of the product.
嗯,責任是我們能力中非常存在的事。在我們吸引資源的工作中。我們始終抓住客戶的投資和資源,並產生雙重效果。這不僅僅是一個塞利率,而是我們所做的銷售效應,我們增加了產品的平台。我們對固定收益和利率進行了遷移。我們在銀行有更多的固定收益產品,我們已經準備好了客戶,不會因為產品的獲利能力而產生衝突。
Now the way that we do the hedging of our liabilities, it doesn't allow us to be susceptible for the short-term movement. One side or the other. We had the best through of the interest -- of the increase in the interest rates, we didn't capture that in the line because we do a dynamic hedging with the long deadlines and several vertices, and we manage that all throughout the cycle.
現在,我們對沖負債的方式不允許我們受到短期波動的影響。一側或另一側。我們在利息方面取得了最好的成績——在利率上升方面,我們沒有在生產線中捕捉到這一點,因為我們在很長的期限和幾個頂點上進行了動態對沖,並且我們在整個週期中都對此進行了管理。
So on the side of the increase, we didn't capture 100% of the increase that was a process that is still happening. And when we get into a reduction cycle, it also Well, it's a long cycle. So we can have those effects captured. So that allows us to have flexibility and time so we can do the active management. And in the moment that the interest rates drop.
因此,在成長方面,我們沒有捕捉到 100% 的成長,但這個過程仍在發生。當我們進入減少週期時,這也是一個很長的週期。這樣我們就可以捕捉這些效果。這樣我們就有了彈性和時間,可以進行積極的管理。在利率下降的那一刻。
On the other hand, you start to have a better capillarity. In credit, you have other opportunities that the cycle has cross-sells with insurance, for example, if you see the one that takes a loan, it's associated to the credit. So the more credit you capillary the most, the more you get that, since you have a reduction in adjustment in the portfolio, naturally, you have the insurance business that grows 25%. It had in the first quarter, a bit of a slowdown in the loans. So the opportunities are one side and the other. And so that's when you look at the long series, we have cycles of increase in interest rates and drop in interest rates, and we could defend.
另一方面,你開始有更好的毛細作用。在信貸方面,您還有其他機會使週期與保險進行交叉銷售,例如,如果您看到貸款的人,它就與信貸相關聯。因此,你投入的信貸越多,你獲得的信貸就越多,因為你的投資組合調整減少了,自然,你的保險業務成長了 25%。第一季貸款略有放緩。所以機會是一方面,也是另一方面。因此,當你查看長序列時,我們有利率上升和利率下降的周期,我們可以進行辯護。
Any adjustment, it's a mix of the wholesale and retail mix in retail -- the adjustment of credit that happens slow case by case for the working capital adjustments that we do as well. So the bank can anticipate these events and protect itself in situations of more skewed cycles, one side or the other. So we always have an additional challenge on one side or the other, and this is the compensation that we will do in the management of the portfolio.
任何調整,都是零售業中批發和零售組合的混合——信貸調整對於我們所做的營運資本調整來說是緩慢的。因此,銀行可以預測這些事件,並在週期更加扭曲的情況下保護自己,無論是一側還是另一側。因此,我們總是在某一方面面臨額外的挑戰,這就是我們在投資組合管理中要做的補償。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Next question, Mario Pierry, Bank of America.
下一個問題,馬裡奧·皮耶里,美國銀行。
Mario Lucio S Pierry - MD in Equity Research
Mario Lucio S Pierry - MD in Equity Research
My question is also on the regulatory side. Well, we continue to hear a lack of satisfaction on the government on the interest rates of the credit cards. I know that the banks are working, but it seems that the news is always in the newspapers. Every single week there is a de-satisfaction of the government. So I wanted to understand on the potential -- well, the interest rates or the credit cards, how are the talks? How do you expect that this will be developed? And also, I wanted to explore more of the impact of the disenroll impact? How do you think that it impacts your operations?
我的問題也涉及監管方面。嗯,我們繼續聽到政府對信用卡利率不滿意。我知道銀行正在工作,但報紙上似乎總是有新聞。每週都會有人對政府不滿。所以我想了解潛力——嗯,利率或信用卡,談判進展如何?您預計這將如何發展?而且,我想進一步探討退出影響的影響?您認為這對您的營運有何影響?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Let me give you a few comments. First of all, the cap of the credit card, it's not a cap, it's rotary -- credit rotary credit in the interest rates on the credit card. What we invested the most over the last few months, was simply in being able to share with the market, it's not the banks. The market is, the government is Central Bank, the well -- well the retailers, all the stakeholders, I mean, so we can start with a common point from all of us. The inception has to do that. Diagnosis is important. Febraban some banks did the work. Febraban taking part in this process discussing in a very open way in this. And I think that this was very positive and constructive, Congress, government, regulatory, Well, we have retail everybody credit card companies. Everybody knows about the challenges that we have.
讓我給你一些評論。首先,信用卡的上限,它不是上限,而是輪換——信用輪轉信貸在信用卡上的利率。過去幾個月我們投資最多的只是能夠與市場分享,而不是銀行。市場是,政府是中央銀行,零售商,所有利益相關者,我的意思是,所以我們可以從我們所有人的共同點開始。成立之初就必須這樣做。診斷很重要。二月一些銀行做了這項工作。 Febraban 參與了這一過程,並以非常開放的方式進行了討論。我認為這是非常積極和有建設性的,國會、政府、監管部門,嗯,我們有零售信用卡公司。每個人都知道我們面臨的挑戰。
Some numbers, we talk about the interest rates of the rotary, oh 400% -- rotary of credit card in the individuals portfolio, international is 3% of the results. So if we have we have another 2%. So we're discussing 3% of the whole portfolio. No client is 12 months in that rate because of the regulation of the Central Bank defines that after 30 days, you have to offer something better. More deadlines, better conditions.
一些數字,我們講一下輪轉的利率,哦400%——信用卡在個人投資組合中的輪轉,國際上是3%的結果。因此,如果有的話,我們還有另外 2%。所以我們正在討論整個投資組合的 3%。沒有客戶能享受 12 個月的利率,因為央行規定 30 天后,你必須提供更好的東西。更多的期限,更好的條件。
So the client in the rotary, it's on average, 18 days staying at the credit card. So that rate is virtual. It's simply annualized, but it's not a real rate of this practice. But it is the one that is published and it generates discomfort. Another information in Brazil that is relevant. 75% of the credit card portfolio does not pay for the interest. Well, 25% pay. When you go to other economies in the -- well, you can see that the 70% pays for this interest and 30% doesn't. So there is a cross subsidy, and I talk about this. Every single business will try to do its interpretation. We want to leave an unstable balance to a stable balance in credit cards. So what we want?
因此,輪轉中的客戶平均使用信用卡的時間為 18 天。所以這個利率是虛擬的。它只是按年計算,但並不是這種做法的真實比率。但它已經出版了,並且引起了不適。巴西的另一個相關資訊。 75%的信用卡組合不支付利息。嗯,25%的工資。當你去其他經濟體時,你會發現 70% 的人支付利息,而 30% 的人則不支付。所以就有了交叉補貼,我就講這個。每個企業都會盡力做出自己的詮釋。我們希望將不穩定的餘額留給信用卡的穩定餘額。那我們想要什麼?
So the client in the Rede, it's on average, 18 days staying at the credit card. So that rate is virtual. It's simply annualized, but it's not a real rate of this practice. But it is the one that is published and it generates discomfort. Another information in Brazil that is relevant. 75% of the credit card portfolio does not pay for the interest. Well, 25% pay. When you go to other economies in the -- well, you can see that the 70% pays for this interest and 30% doesn't. So there is a cross subsidy, and I talk about this. Every single business will try to do its interpretation. We want to leave an unstable balance to a stable balance in credit cards. So what we want?
Rede 的客戶平均在信用卡上停留 18 天。所以這個利率是虛擬的。它只是按年計算,但並不是這種做法的真實比率。但它已經出版了,並且引起了不適。巴西的另一個相關資訊。 75%的信用卡組合不支付利息。嗯,25%的工資。當你去其他經濟體時,你會發現 70% 的人支付利息,而 30% 的人則不支付。所以就有了交叉補貼,我就講這個。每個企業都會盡力做出自己的詮釋。我們希望將不穩定的餘額留給信用卡的穩定餘額。那我們想要什麼?
And I say this -- I just talked about Rede. Well, you mentioned that we took over well, we're going to see the numbers. Well, let you see that we are the biggest insurance issuer and acquiring business in the country. We are seeing this from -- we want to solve something that is structural. I'm not going to defend, well, the receivables in the -- because Rede has the installment, well, we have to build a solution that is good for everyone.
我這麼說——我剛剛談到了雷德。嗯,你提到我們接管得很好,我們會看到數字。好吧,讓您看看我們是全國最大的保險發行人和收單業務。我們希望解決一些結構性問題。我不會為應收帳款辯護——因為雷德有分期付款,我們必須建立一個對每個人都有好處的解決方案。
That is good for the consumer that is sustainable, that is good for retail. I think that it has to be good for everyone. I think that this is the North. We had great talks. We are working in that direction. We do not believe that the cap is the best path the impact is very relevant. It's not good. It's not good for the regulator for the Ministry of the economy. It's not good for retailers because this is an artificial lever.
這對永續的消費者有好處,對零售業也有好處。我認為這必須對每個人都有好處。我想,這就是北方吧。我們聊得很愉快。我們正在朝這個方向努力。我們不認為上限是最好的路徑,其影響是非常相關的。這不好。這對經濟部的監管者來說並不好。這對零售商來說並不好,因為這是一個人為的槓桿。
So let's work with the root cause and this is what we believe our best information is that we are going to work over the next 90 days in about a disciplinary group to deliver a solid proposition for the Central Bank for the for the ministry of the economy and the business, so we can advance. This is not easy, and we are optimistic that there are mechanisms to advance. And this is what we defend the stable equilibrium with all the parties, Ministry of Finance, et cetera. Well, thank you.
因此,讓我們從根本原因出發,我們相信我們最好的訊息是,我們將在未來 90 天內成立一個紀律小組,為央行、經濟部提出可靠的建議。和業務,這樣我們才能前進。這並不容易,我們樂觀地認為有機制可以推進。這就是我們與財政部等各方捍衛穩定平衡的原因。嗯,謝謝。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
The next question is Bernardo Goodman from XP.
下一個問題是來自 XP 的 Bernardo Goodman。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Congratulations on the results. In regards to the guidance, it seems fair the review for the tariffs and the services given the starting point in the first quarter, but Milton was commenting on the expectation for the recovery in the capital market activities. That guidance can be reviewed with a possible reacceleration that is stronger with the regaining of the DCM-ECM activities. Can you comment on the expectations for the investment bank for the second semester?
祝賀結果。在指導方面,考慮到第一季的起點,對關稅和服務的審查似乎是公平的,但米爾頓評論的是對資本市場活動復甦的預期。隨著 DCM-ECM 活動的恢復,可能會出現更強的重新加速,從而對此指導進行審查。您能否評價一下投行第二學期的預期?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Now we've done an exercise of sensitivity and a review of the guidance. So our best information is that we can navigate the next two quarters within the same range within the new range that was published, considering a replenishing of the activities. We are expecting good activities in the second semester, but not enough that we can recover in the first semester. So basically, three lines that are suffering here. We have the activity of the market of investment banking, the capital markets, all that you commented, we have the performance fees of the funds we are going through a process of a more difficult activities in the funds, it's more difficult to win with the market with high volatility.
現在我們已經進行了敏感性練習並對指南進行了審查。因此,我們最好的資訊是,考慮到活動的補充,我們可以在已發布的新範圍內的相同範圍內導航接下來的兩個季度。我們期待第二學期的良好活動,但不足以讓我們在第一學期恢復。基本上,這三條線都受到了影響。我們有投資銀行市場的活動,資本市場的活動,您所評論的一切,我們有基金的績效費,我們正在經歷一個基金活動更困難的過程,贏得勝利更困難市場波動性大。
And in the second semester, we -- well, the performance fee, it depends on the market depositions, the managers. It's very difficult to foresee. There is a third effect has to do with the credit, which is the insurance for the loans. It is intrinsic. It is very much involved in the operation of [fer] credit. So as the credit activity restarts, we have an expansion also of the loans. We do not think that this is going to be enough for the recovery of the first 6 months of the year. So I don't see a change in the guidance in the next quarters, I would love to come here and say that we are reviewing the guidance going up, but this is the best information that we have today.
在第二學期,我們——嗯,績效費,這取決於市場證詞和經理。很難預見。第三個影響與信貸有關,即貸款的保險。這是內在的。它在很大程度上參與了信貸的運作。因此,隨著信貸活動的重啟,我們的貸款規模也會擴大。我們認為這不足以支撐今年前 6 個月的復甦。因此,我認為未來幾季的指導不會發生變化,我很樂意來這裡並說我們正在審查上調的指導,但這是我們今天掌握的最佳資訊。
But now within the geography, that has been said between 5 and 7, which is what we published, I think it's reasonable that the bank is going to be within those thresholds. Any positive surprises, I think that the range will accommodate.
但現在在地理範圍內,我們已經發布了 5 到 7 之間的數據,我認為銀行處於這些閾值內是合理的。任何積極的驚喜,我認為範圍都可以容納。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Before we give the floor to Gustavo, I-- Mario asked two questions about the capital of the [rotary] and Desenrola. And if you can answer about Desenrola?
在我們請古斯塔沃發言之前,我-馬裡奧問了兩個關於[扶輪社]首都和德森羅拉的問題。您能否回答有關 Desenrola 的問題?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Well, let's go back to the point, sorry. This Desenrola is two points that are important. First, the engagement of the clients is very good. The awareness level that was created is very solid. And we've seen -- we realized that there is an increasing demand in several channels seeking those agreements. We renegotiated over 200,000 contracts. We actually have about 600,000 individuals that are on the blue, no longer in the red. And the number may be is even over 700,000 individuals.
好吧,我們回到正題,抱歉。這德森羅拉有兩點很重要。首先,客戶的參與度非常好。所創建的意識層次非常穩固。我們已經看到——我們意識到,尋求這些協議的多個管道的需求不斷增加。我們重新談判了超過 20 萬份合約。實際上,我們有大約 60 萬人處於藍色狀態,不再是紅色狀態。這個數字甚至可能超過70萬人。
So the effect on the bank, we are going to see the dynamics in September, the bids on the Range 1, on the Range 2, the stimulus is already there. so we expect something in the Range 1, this is not going to be sufficiently enough from the standpoint of the bank to fiddle with the cost of credit or the delinquency indicators, I don't think that there's going to be a material impact. But I think it's positive for the society. It has an impact that is relevant for the clients and they help them in the very difficult post pandemic cycle.
因此,對於銀行的影響,我們將看到 9 月的動態,範圍 1 的出價,範圍 2 的出價,刺激措施已經存在。因此,我們預期範圍 1 內會出現一些情況,從銀行的角度來看,這還不足以影響信貸成本或拖欠指標,我認為不會產生實質影響。但我認為這對社會是正面的。它對客戶產生了相關的影響,並幫助他們度過了非常困難的疫情後週期。
So yes, we expect the result. I do not see materiality in the results in terms of financial highlights. It's very uncertain because we're going to know the -- how the dynamic of the bids is going to be from September onwards. Maybe I can give you in the future, more contracts, information, more volume information, but what economically that means we have to wait for the next quarter because I need more data.
所以是的,我們期待結果。就財務亮點而言,我不認為結果具有實質意義。這是非常不確定的,因為我們將知道從 9 月開始投標的動態將如何。也許我可以在未來給你更多的合約、資訊、更多的信息,但這在經濟上意味著我們必須等待下一個季度,因為我需要更多的數據。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
And now we go to the next question Gustavo Schroden, Bradesco.
現在我們進入下一個問題,古斯塔沃·施羅登(Gustavo Schroden),布拉德斯科(Bradesco)。
Gustavo Schroden - Research Analyst
Gustavo Schroden - Research Analyst
I'm going to change gears. Let's talk about efficiency. I think that the bank has done an excellent work in that -- Well, if you look at a number of 37% of efficiency for a bank of your size and robustness of it, it really calls your attention to the numbers. Milton, I wanted to understand if there is a target? If there is any objective here that we can work with for the next 2, 3 years in terms of efficiency? Can we think about 35% something in that matter? I know that there is a right of the side of the revenue, but getting the revenue as it is, just thinking about cost and can you still do something maybe to see the 35% or even something lower?
我要換檔了。我們來談談效率。我認為銀行在這方面做得非常出色——好吧,如果你看看像你這樣規模和穩健的銀行的效率是 37%,你會發現這些數字確實引起了你的注意。米爾頓,我想知道是否有目標?就效率而言,我們是否有未來 2、3 年可以努力實現的目標?我們可以考慮一下 35% 的事情嗎?我知道收入有一個正確的一面,但就收入本身而言,只考慮成本,你還能做一些事情來實現 35% 甚至更低嗎?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
I think that in the end our objective is to continue to improve. If you ask me if it's 35, 36, where is the stabilization in demand. It depends on the dynamic of cost and revenue. We are working diligently. I think that the revenues have followed us all throughout the cycle and the agenda for cost as well.
我認為最終我們的目標是繼續改進。如果你問我是35還是36,需求穩定在哪裡。這取決於成本和收入的動態。我們正在努力工作。我認為收入在整個週期和成本議程中都跟隨我們。
So that's why we have the core cost that we show, and we absorb the run the bank, the inflammation we saw the cost of customer service, the reduction is very relevant. So the investment. Digital investment of the bank has for as an objective to deliver the best value proposition, a better experience for the clients and offering that is more customized, but also, we have the objective of the cost of service in a market that is ever more competitive. So we need to advance.
這就是為什麼我們有我們展示的核心成本,我們吸收了銀行的擠兌,我們看到客戶服務成本的減少是非常相關的。所以投資。銀行數位化投資的目標是提供最佳價值主張、為客戶提供更好的體驗以及更客製化的服務,而且我們的目標是在競爭日益激烈的市場中降低服務成本。所以我們需要前進。
I'm not talking about a remote bank. No, this is not it. But being a digital company is to service the clients in an optimized way. And in a way that technology allows you to do so. So we are still in a redundancy phase operationally speaking, as you migrate to the cloud, you still have systems. Legacy in the data center that are old, so you have operational efficiencies that will be captured. We still have opportunities for advances in the business model structure the model of service for the clients I'm optimistic.
我不是說遠距銀行。不,不是這個。但作為一家數位公司,就是以優化的方式為客戶提供服務。在某種程度上,科技允許你這樣做。因此,從操作上來說,我們仍處於冗餘階段,當您遷移到雲端時,您仍然擁有系統。資料中心中的遺留物已經過時,因此您可以提高營運效率。我們仍然有機會在商業模式結構和為客戶服務的模式方面取得進步,我對此持樂觀態度。
I think that this is an agenda that we will continue to work with, with a lot of emphasis quarter after quarter. And we -- regardless of the top line, cost is something an agenda that has to be present all throughout. Well, every day. So once again, I'm constructive. I don't know if the stability will be 35, 36, where it will land, but that's the ballpark. And time will tell, it will really depend on the dynamic of top line.
我認為這是我們將繼續努力的議程,每個季度都會重點強調這一點。而我們——無論收入如何,成本都是一個必須始終存在的議程。嗯,每天。所以我再說一遍,我是有建設性的。我不知道穩定性會是 35 還是 36,但大概就是這樣。時間會證明一切,這實際上取決於營收的動態。
And another thing is that when we give the disclosure of costs, we first get all the costs in there. So we have expenses, we don't have expenses and other expenses. It's all expenses. So the other segment that is important, the numbers can be seen is that within our cost agenda, we do not forgo all the provisions that are adequate, all the PROs, the labor expenses. So I mean all of that is cost for the organization. but always with the provisioning level that is very adequate.
另一件事是,當我們揭露成本時,我們首先將所有成本都包含在內。所以我們有開支,我們沒有開支和其他開支。都是費用啊因此,另一個重要的部分,從數字中可以看出,在我們的成本議程中,我們不會放棄所有足夠的規定、所有 PRO、勞動力費用。所以我的意思是所有這些都是組織的成本。但始終具有非常充足的配置水準。
If you look at our [patrimony] lines our [SL] lines, well that delivery of cost has no relations with the reduction of structural provisions that we understand that are important for the bank. So regardless, we continue to deliver powerful results in advance. So I think that it's important that we understand our provisions in those different lines. And we can follow up on those lines. We have solidity on the long term, even though that might sacrifice an efficiency indicator from one quarter to another.
如果你看看我們的[遺產]行和[SL]行,那麼成本的交付與結構性準備金的減少沒有關係,我們知道這對銀行很重要。因此,無論如何,我們都會繼續提前提供強大的成果。因此,我認為了解我們在這些不同方面的規定非常重要。我們可以跟進這些線索。從長遠來看,我們具有穩健性,儘管這可能會犧牲一個季度到另一個季度的效率指標。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Next question Thiago Batista, UBS.
下一個問題是瑞銀集團的蒂亞戈·巴蒂斯塔。
Thiago Bovolenta Batista - LatAm Equity Research Analyst of Banks
Thiago Bovolenta Batista - LatAm Equity Research Analyst of Banks
My question is credit card. Well, you commented that you had a drop, [leaves], mean we can see the [EAAH], the first drop in the first year. So I wanted to understand if the drop in the clients was because of a change in the mix and in the high income? Or is it the same base and you could see that improvement? Well also with that, when I look at the profitability of your business, this quarter was single digit, I think it was 10 and then it dropped quarter-on-quarter. So it was single-digit this quarter. That Improvement in profitability goes through credit card? Is credit card relevant actor in credit?
我的問題是信用卡。好吧,你評論說你有一滴,[葉子],意味著我們可以看到[EAAH],第一年的第一滴。所以我想了解客戶的下降是否是因為組合和高收入的變化造成的?或者是在相同的基礎上您可以看到改進嗎?另外,當我查看你們業務的盈利能力時,本季度是個位數,我認為是 10,然後逐季度下降。所以本季的數字為個位數。獲利能力的提高是透過信用卡實現的嗎?信用卡與信用相關嗎?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Well, several questions here. Let me do a deep dive then. We look at the financial system national system and expansion of the delinquencies, above 90 days. So when we look well, hours, we reduced it 20 basis points. So we are outside of the curve of the behavior of the market. So the portfolio drops also nominally, the finance also drops. And so it shows that the denominator effect has a role, and we still reduced.
嗯,這裡有幾個問題。那麼讓我深入研究一下。我們關注金融體系和國家體系的拖欠情況,超過 90 天。因此,當我們看好時,我們將其減少了 20 個基點。所以我們處於市場行為曲線之外。因此,名義上投資組合也下降了,財務狀況也下降了。所以表示分母效應有作用,我們還是減少了。
Well, there is a mix effect that is very important. I think that we did a derisking, derisking of the portfolio, and we are growing in the segment. That we have a level of return that is more healthy for the portfolio. So the new works that are going to be produced although our time, this takes time. it's difficult for you to take -- to change the portfolio from that today. But all of those periods, well, we have the Mobi30. All these are indicators that are healthy.
嗯,混合效果非常重要。我認為我們對投資組合進行了去風險化、去風險化,並且我們正在該領域不斷成長。我們的投資組合的回報水準更加健康。因此,雖然我們的時間即將產生新的作品,但這需要時間。對你來說,改變今天的投資組合是很困難的。但所有這些時期,我們都有 Mobi30。所有這些都是健康的指標。
So we have the mix that is important here for the derisking of the portfolio than just looking at the same base and imagining how it would work. And since our low-income operation in the end as one of the levers is a credit card, and as I said, if we kept a constant mix, credit card has a role in that mix, we would have worsened our delinquency indicators in 180 points on lower profitability and the business of credit cards has to be separated.
因此,我們的組合對於降低投資組合的風險非常重要,而不僅僅是查看相同的基礎並想像它將如何運作。由於我們的低收入業務最終作為槓桿之一是信用卡,正如我所說,如果我們保持恆定的組合,信用卡在該組合中發揮作用,我們的拖欠指標將在 180 年惡化盈利能力較低的點必須與信用卡業務分開。
So the -- with the checking, it's been growing, it's been -- it's very adequate. We're very happy with the results. With the market that is the open ocean, we have an adjustment in the portfolio. It suffers less and the finance in the middle of the path. But both businesses in the lower capital cost, not the account holder, the others. So our work is to regain -- so we can go back to the [herd] of the capital, that takes some time. and that was a big offender of our credit, well, the size of our portfolio is disproportionate in regards to the market in regards to individuals and the size of our portfolio, if you consider Carrefour Bank 30% of market share. So this is a very relevant number that generates higher impacts.
因此,經過檢查,它一直在增長,非常足夠。我們對結果非常滿意。由於市場是公海,我們對投資組合進行了調整。它遭受的損失較小,而金融則處於中間位置。但這兩家企業的資金成本較低,不是帳戶持有人,而是其他人。所以我們的工作是重新獲得——這樣我們就可以回到首都的[牛群],這需要一些時間。這是對我們信用的嚴重侵犯,好吧,如果你考慮家樂福銀行 30% 的市場份額,我們的投資組合規模與市場的個人和我們的投資組合規模不成比例。所以這是一個非常相關的數字,會產生更大的影響。
The credit activity in the business model, we published 10%. So it's not single digit, but it's for the chart, 10%. On the other hand, we have an important expansion in the revenues of services and insurance, showing that the credit of the credit card for the mono line are the one that doesn't have a full bank offering. It's very dependent on credit. But for the other businesses, the credit is an important lever for the cross-sell, so we can capture all of the value creation and the revenues of insurance and services and the other big opportunity that I just mentioned.
商業模式的信用活動,我們公佈了10%。所以它不是個位數,但對於圖表來說是 10%。另一方面,我們的服務和保險收入顯著增長,這表明單線信用卡的信用是沒有完整銀行服務的信用。這非常依賴信用。但對於其他業務來說,信貸是交叉銷售的重要槓桿,因此我們可以抓住保險和服務的所有價值創造和收入以及我剛才提到的其他巨大機會。
Our expectation is that we can work this base, leaving our vision that is not full bank to a full bank with clients that we have records and that we know and they have CAC that are close to 0 of the organization and what we have to do is increment the businesses. So here, we have an opportunity. It's not just a challenge from the credit standpoint. Business opportunities that are very strong, and we maybe have the biggest basis of clients that are already of the bank that are not explored, and we have an integrated modernized platform and we can do so.
我們的期望是,我們可以在這個基礎上開展工作,將我們的願景(不是完整的銀行)留給一個完整的銀行,我們有記錄並且我們知道他們的客戶擁有接近0 的組織和我們必須做的CAC是增加業務。所以在這裡,我們有一個機會。從信用角度來看,這不僅僅是一個挑戰。商業機會非常強大,我們可能擁有銀行尚未開發的最大客戶基礎,我們擁有一個整合的現代化平台,我們可以做到這一點。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Now next question from Rosman, BTG.
現在,羅斯曼 (BTG) 提出下一個問題。
Eduardo Rosman - Analyst
Eduardo Rosman - Analyst
My question is a follow-up of Thiago's question and also the answer of Milton. About the client of the Open Ocean, Open Sea. We've seen the banks suffering with the open ocean the finance, there is a digital bank that has performed better so far. So I wanted to understand what is the relevance of that client, that is the Open Ocean, Open Sea and the results of Itau Bank. I think that the number is small, if you can quantify, please? And how do you work to transform this client in a full bank being the main one? Do you need a migration to apps, the system is ready for that? All the technological background is ready set up. If you can tell us more about that theme?
我的問題是蒂亞戈問題的後續,也是米爾頓的回答。關於 Open Ocean 的客戶 Open Sea。我們已經看到銀行在金融領域遭受苦難,但到目前為止,有一家數位銀行表現更好。所以我想了解那位客戶的相關性是什麼,也就是 Open Ocean、Open Sea 和 Itau 銀行的業績。我覺得這個數字很小,請問您能量化一下嗎?您如何努力將該客戶轉變為完整的銀行作為主要客戶?您是否需要遷移到應用程序,系統已經準備好了嗎?所有的技術背景都已準備就緒。您能告訴我們更多關於該主題的資訊嗎?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
I think that the first message here that I think that is important to share is that, that client, if you look at the bottom line of the bank, the last line, it's a client that added very little value to the results. It's much less RGO than what we've seen in the typically operations in the past would always return the cost of capital. So it's a detractor for the ROE, but it helps and generate value in terms of scalability for the operational results.
我認為這裡要分享的第一個訊息是,如果你看看銀行的底線,最後一行,那個客戶對結果的增加很少。它的 RGO 比我們在過去的典型營運中看到的要少得多,總是會回報資本成本。因此,它是 ROE 的貶低者,但它有助於營運結果的可擴展性並產生價值。
And obviously, with this cycle, the external channel, is more challenging, not just for credit cards, business vehicles, other businesses that depend on the exclusively on the external channel. So there is a reduction in the contribution for these clients for the bank is specifically in terms of profitability, even though there is a positive income, the profitability is an offender.
顯然,在這個週期中,外部管道更具挑戰性,不僅僅是信用卡、商務車輛以及其他完全依賴外部管道的業務。因此,這些客戶對銀行的貢獻減少了,特別是在獲利能力方面,即使有正收入,獲利能力也是違法的。
And so we could -- regardless, we could absorb all these effects in the balance sheet, as you can see. So I see that on the other hand, there are opportunities for you to transform a client that you have a single [billion] or view of a product, and then we can engage in the client, and you can be the main bank of the client and not the accessory bank. Because the accessory bank, we have an effect in credit term of sudden death. So you have a client that is using your credit card until the day that they cannot pay the credit card, in the drawer, and they are going to use the other 6 credit cards that they have. So the relationship and the engagement with the company is key.
因此,無論如何,我們都可以在資產負債表中吸收所有這些影響,正如您所看到的。所以我看到,另一方面,你有機會去改造一個客戶,你有一個單一的[十億]或對一個產品的看法,然後我們就可以跟這個客戶打交道,你就可以成為這個客戶的主要銀行。客戶而不是附屬銀行。因為附屬銀行,我們對突然死亡的信用期限有影響。因此,您有一位客戶一直在使用您的信用卡,直到他們無法支付抽屜裡的信用卡的那一天,他們將使用他們擁有的其他 6 張信用卡。因此,與公司的關係和參與是關鍵。
If you're a bank that you centralize, where you have the day-to-day, where you have mechanism of debit in the account holder. And you have an integrated work with the client, you also benefit from the cost of credit. You tend to be the last bank that are not naturally going to do a not get the payment, so they tend to preserve of course the income of the client is the income of the client but they try to preserve their relationship with the organization and the bank that is the main bank. So to me, it's a theme of being the main bank.
如果你是一家集中化的銀行,你有日常事務,你有帳戶持有人的借記機制。而且您與客戶進行一體化工作,您還可以從信貸成本中受益。您往往是最後一家不會自然而然地無法收到付款的銀行,因此他們傾向於保留客戶的收入,當然客戶的收入就是客戶的收入,但他們試圖保留與組織和客戶的關係。銀行是主要銀行。所以對我來說,這是成為主要銀行的主題。
You need a technological solution. Sure. You do not do that with brute force. It's not a call center. It's not going to be in an app, trying to do a fishing. No, no, no. The fishing in the sense of trying to originate a transaction with that client. It's not going to work. But if you build an integrated experience, and this is the work that we've been doing. It doesn't matter if the client gets in with a channel with a product, and what is a product that they chose to do a relationship with the bank.
您需要一個技術解決方案。當然。你不能用蠻力來做到這一點。這不是呼叫中心。它不會在應用程式中嘗試釣魚。不不不。釣魚是指嘗試與該客戶發起交易。這是行不通的。但如果你建立一個整合的體驗,這就是我們一直在做的工作。客戶是否進入某個產品管道以及他們選擇與銀行建立關係的產品是什麼並不重要。
You end that logic at the checking account is the only center of relations with the client, you have a credit card. You have savings. I mean the customer will start the relationship from where they want to start. If you can, through a super app, you can do an integrated offering for the client the way you work it changes, the efficiency changes. And this is what we believe. We are not there yet. There is an important work happening, but we will get there. And this might be a watershed moment. We never had the tools and the technology to do that capture, to do this integration.
你結束了支票帳戶的邏輯,這是與客戶關係的唯一中心,你有一張信用卡。你有積蓄。我的意思是客戶將從他們想要開始的地方開始關係。如果可以的話,透過超級應用程序,您可以為客戶提供整合服務,因為您的工作方式會發生變化,效率也會發生變化。這就是我們所相信的。我們還沒到那一步。有一項重要的工作正在進行,但我們會實現這一目標。這可能是個分水嶺時刻。我們從來沒有工具和技術來進行捕獲和整合。
So now I think that we have a solution that is much better to generate that engagement with our clients. And a client that is known with the behavior score the client that we have sufficient data to do credit decisions. So I am optimistic the contribution can be important. And I think that the client that contributes very little in terms of bottom line because of the cost of credit. They have an important role in the cost of credit as a whole and this is the biggest offender.
所以現在我認為我們有一個解決方案可以更好地與客戶建立互動。已知行為的客戶會給客戶評分,顯示我們有足夠的數據來做出信用決策。因此,我樂觀地認為,這項貢獻可能很重要。我認為,由於信貸成本的原因,客戶在底線方面的貢獻很小。它們在整個信貸成本中發揮著重要作用,這是最大的罪魁禍首。
The portfolio that most offended the cost of credit is the credit card portfolio. So we are delivering our cost of credit of this size with the biggest portfolio in the market, maybe the second place, a big difference and still working with the cost of credit that the operation can absorb. So this shows how much opportunity we have on the other hand. So we can advance.
最損害信貸成本的投資組合是信用卡投資組合。因此,我們正在以市場上最大的投資組合(也許是第二位)提供如此規模的信貸成本,這是一個很大的差異,並且仍在考慮該業務可以吸收的信貸成本。所以這顯示我們另一方面有多少機會。這樣我們就可以前進。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
With us Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.
我們是高盛的 Tito Labarta。
Daer Labarta - VP
Daer Labarta - VP
My question, just a little more color on the NII. Very good performance on both the market NII and the client and I this quarter, I guess, in the context of rates coming down now, how should we think on about the market NII? And how that will evolve in a lower rate environment? But also the client NII, right, as you potentially accelerate loan growth into next year. Should the client NII grow or benefit from a lower rate environment as you grow the loan book more and maybe the mix could potentially help if asset quality begins to improve. So just to think about both the market and client and NII in the context of a lower rate environment into next year?
我的問題是,NII 的顏色要多一點。這個季度無論是市場NII還是我和客戶的表現都非常好,我想,在現在利率下降的背景下,我們該如何看待市場NII?在較低的利率環境下,這將如何演變?還有客戶 NII,對吧,因為你可能會在明年加速貸款成長。如果客戶NII隨著貸款帳面的增加而成長或從較低的利率環境中受益,如果資產品質開始改善,這種組合可能會有所幫助。那麼,在明年利率較低的環境下,考慮市場、客戶和國家資訊基礎設施(NII)?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
I think a little bit in what I was mentioning before. I think you have to look both sides, okay? The investment side and also the credit side. And we've been able to deliver a good performance throughout the cycle because we've been balancing a lot the portfolio in decisions like that.
我對之前提到的內容有一點思考。我覺得你得兩面看看,好嗎?投資方面,也包括信貸方面。我們能夠在整個週期中提供良好的業績,因為我們在類似的決策中平衡了許多投資組合。
So in one way, you have some positive from the investment side with the interest rate going up, you have more volumes with interest rate going up. But then when you go in a cycle, when you have a reduction of the interest rate, you will see an opportunity in credit coming in front of us, where you can calibrate it, you can bring a more balance to the mix of the portfolio. You can take more risk. You can go to product, the mix of the retail can change, the mix of the wholesale can change.
因此,從某種程度上來說,隨著利率上升,投資方面會產生一些正面的影響,隨著利率上升,交易量也會增加。但是當你進入一個週期時,當你降低利率時,你會看到信貸機會出現在我們面前,你可以對其進行校準,你可以為投資組合的組合帶來更多平衡。您可以承擔更多風險。你可以去產品,零售的組合可以改變,批發的組合可以改變。
So then it's always a play of taking a little bit more risk in a scenario that allows you to do so with better spreads. Then in the other side, you may lose a little bit of the benefits on the investments on the liability side. So this is the balance that we've been pursuing.
因此,在允許您以更好的利差做到這一點的情況下,總是需要承擔更多的風險。那麼在另一方面,您可能會損失一點負債方面的投資收益。所以這就是我們一直追求的平衡。
I think in the mid- to long term, it's better for us to work in an environment where we have a lower interest rate. So it's not true when they say that interest rate, high interest rate is good for the banks. It is good in the short term. You have some benefits in the short term. But the cost of credit and the capability to increase portfolio with so strongly the cost of credit increase and the capability decrease that at the end of the day on the balance of that you have more negatives than positives, so you have less project, the wholesale market is not so active. So, We are positive. I think in the downturn, we will see more and the economy evolving in the coming quarters, we see more positive than negatives. And then if we have to adjust the structure of the cost, the portfolio, we will do so whenever we feel comfortable to improve our performance. So I'm positive about that.
我認為從中長期來看,我們最好在利率較低的環境中工作。因此,當他們說利率、高利率對銀行有利時,這是不正確的。短期內是好的。短期內你會得到一些好處。但是信貸成本和增加投資組合的能力如此強烈,信貸成本增加而能力下降,最終,負面因素多於正面因素,因此你的專案、批發專案都減少了。市場不那麼活躍。所以,我們是積極的。我認為在經濟低迷時期,我們將在未來幾季看到更多的經濟發展,我們看到的正面因素多於負面因素。然後,如果我們必須調整成本結構、投資組合,只要我們願意提高業績,我們就會這麼做。所以我對此持肯定態度。
And then we have to look at the adjusted NII or adjusted NIM to understand how we can manage throughout the cycle. And the NII, there's two impacts, especially for this year. One of them is the average balance of the portfolio. So we cannot look at the picture at the end of the cycle, at the end of the quarter because we still have an average balance higher than what we see, especially when the portfolio reduces.
然後我們必須查看調整後的NII或調整後的NIM,以了解我們如何在整個週期中進行管理。對於國家資訊基礎設施而言,有兩個影響,尤其是今年。其中之一是投資組合的平均餘額。因此,我們無法在周期結束時、季度末查看情況,因為我們的平均餘額仍然高於我們所看到的水平,特別是當投資組合減少時。
And in the second semester, we expect more activity in general. We see a good pipeline on the wholesale side where we can bring more economics to the operation, and this will benefit as well our NII. That's why we keep comfortable NII even though the mix may change a little bit.
在第二學期,我們預計整體活動會更多。我們在批發方面看到了良好的管道,可以為營運帶來更多經濟效益,這也將使我們的國家資訊基礎設施受益。這就是為什麼我們保持舒適的 NII,即使組合可能會發生一些變化。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
The next question comes from Nicolas Riva from Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Nicolas Riva。
Nicolas Alejandro Riva - VP in Credit Research & Research Analyst
Nicolas Alejandro Riva - VP in Credit Research & Research Analyst
I have two questions. The first one on capital. So Milton, you alluded to this positive impact you are getting on capital beginning July 1, from some changes in operational risk, lower operational risks and you estimated the positive impact of 100 basis points. If you can provide a bit more color on actually what is changing regarding operational risks? So that's my first question. And then my second question, I know that I have been asking this. I think Natalia has also asked this in past earnings calls, but if I wanted to ask, I wanted to confirm if the strategy around the call options on the Tier 1 and the Tier 2 bonds still hold in the sense that with the Tier 2 bonds, with the 2029s and the 2031s, if we should still expect that what's most likely to happen is that you would call these bonds, being that they start losing capital treatment, if not called?
我有兩個問題。第一個是資本。 Milton,您提到了從 7 月 1 日開始對資本的正面影響,來自營運風險的一些變化、營運風險的降低,您估計了 100 個基點的正面影響。您能否提供更多關於操作風險方面實際發生的變化的資訊?這是我的第一個問題。然後是我的第二個問題,我知道我一直在問這個。我認為納塔莉亞在過去的財報電話會議中也曾問過這個問題,但如果我想問,我想確認圍繞一級和二級債券的看漲期權的策略是否仍然像二級債券那樣成立,對於2029 年和2031 年,如果我們仍然期望最有可能發生的情況是您會調用這些債券,因為它們開始失去資本待遇(如果不調用的話)?
And two, with the AT1 bonds, if we should expect that in that case, you would only call them once you can issue a new [par] at very similar coupons to the ones you're currently paying on the pars?
第二,對於 AT1 債券,如果我們預期在這種情況下,只有當您能夠以與您目前支付的票面利率非常相似的票面發行新的票面利率時,您才會贖回它們?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
So on the operational risk, it's your first question. I think there was a public consultancy coming from the regulator telling us how -- and this is not a Brazilian discussion, is a basal discussion. And of course, there are some specific items for Brazil and some discussions that we are having with the regulator as well, to avoid double accounting for some specific topics, just to give you an idea, when we do labor provisions and when we do tax provisions, at the end of the day, some operational risk.
所以關於操作風險,這是你的第一個問題。我認為監管機構的公共諮詢機構告訴我們如何進行——這不是巴西的討論,而是基本的討論。當然,巴西有一些具體項目,我們也正在與監管機構進行一些討論,以避免對某些特定主題進行重複核算,只是為了讓您了解我們何時進行勞工規定和何時進行稅收歸根結底,存在一定的操作風險。
But as those are two very relevant lines for the bank, we do on an expected loss provision, we provision in the balance sheet. So there is a discussion in the Central Bank, there is this ILM that an index that can be one or can be more than one depending on how the Central Bank regulates that. that we say that it's a double accounting because whenever I provision, and I expected loss model, I take it from capital.
但由於這兩條線與銀行非常相關,我們會在資產負債表中提列預期損失準備金。因此,中央銀行進行了討論,有一個ILM,該指數可以是一個,也可以是多個,這取決於中央銀行如何監管。我們說這是雙重會計,因為每當我準備金和預期損失模型時,我都會從資本中獲得。
So if I take that in consideration, when I look my statistical loss going back, then it will be double accounting. That's why we discussed this highly ILM equal to 1. And then the Central Bank can regulate the level of provisions in Pillar 2 of [Brasilia] in Basel, guaranteeing that we have the sufficient capital for those lines and those specific provisions.
因此,如果我考慮到這一點,當我回顧我的統計損失時,那麼這將是重複核算。這就是為什麼我們討論這個高度ILM等於1。然後中央銀行可以調節巴塞爾[巴西利亞]第二支柱的準備金水平,保證我們有足夠的資本來滿足這些額度和特定準備金。
So I think this is the major impact. It's an evolution on the regulation, it has to do a lot with your historical has to do with new models. I think it's an evolution that is happening worldwide and it makes sense, and we believe so. But we have some comments that, of course, the industry throughout Febraban also the banks have been conversations very constructive with the regulator. So let's wait and see. Our best case, it's 100 basis points. If it's the worst case could be 180. This could be a number. But we work much more with 100 basis as the base case due to all the discussions and the logic behind this evolution on the Basel III operational risk.
所以我認為這是主要的影響。這是規則的演變,它與新車型的歷史有很大關係。我認為這是一種正在全世界範圍內發生的演變,而且它是有道理的,我們也相信如此。但我們有一些評論說,當然,整個 Febraban 的行業以及銀行一直在與監管機構進行非常有建設性的對話。所以讓我們拭目以待。我們最好的情況是 100 個基點。如果是最壞的情況可能是180。這可能是個數字。但由於巴塞爾協定 III 操作風險演進背後的所有討論和邏輯,我們更以 100 基點作為基本案例。
And now talking about the bonds, it keeps the same strategy. So whenever we get close to the co option, we would understand if it's better to access market or if it's an economic perspective, it's better not to exercise the call. This is what we've been communicating to the market anticipating the communication guarantee that we've been very transparent on that.
現在談論債券,它保持同樣的策略。因此,每當我們接近共同選擇權時,我們就會明白進入市場是否更好,或者從經濟角度來看,最好不要行使看漲期權。這就是我們一直在向市場傳達的訊息,並期望我們在這方面保持非常透明的溝通保證。
And on the Tier 2, the same way around, as you just mentioned, if we start to lose the capital benefit because of the five years close to the maturity, then we start to reduce 20% per year, then we will decide if it's an expensive or not Tier 2. We don't have an issue -- relevant issuing capital. As you can see in our figures. We are very comfortable with the level of capital that we have. So on the economic side, this will be the key lever to make the decision. We will keep tracing. It's difficult to say, anticipate the market may change, the interest rate may change.
在第二級,同樣的方式,正如你剛才提到的,如果我們因為接近到期的五年而開始失去資本收益,那麼我們開始每年減少 20%,然後我們將決定是否昂貴或不昂貴的二級資本。我們沒有問題-相關的發行資本。正如您在我們的圖中所看到的。我們對我們擁有的資本水準非常滿意。所以在經濟方面,這將是做出決定的關鍵槓桿。我們將繼續追蹤。很難說,預計市場可能會改變,利率可能會改變。
But today, it worth not to exercise the call. We can do that at least 150, 200 basis points lower than if we would go to the market, especially in a market, there's been a lot of discussions after the Credit Suisse event AT1, so we don't see a very open market for that, and we don't know what level of price new instruments will be priced. So we'll be monitoring the market. And if it's the case, we will or not exercise the call. We will depend in many levers, but the cost is the most relevant one.
但今天,值得不去行使這項呼籲。我們可以做到比進入市場至少低 150、200 個基點,特別是在瑞信 AT1 事件之後進行了很多討論的市場,因此我們看不到一個非常開放的市場我們不知道新儀器的定價是多少。所以我們將密切關注市場。如果是這樣的話,我們會或不會執行電話會議。我們將依賴許多槓桿,但成本是最相關的一個。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
And just before we move to the next and last question, I just want to acknowledge that we got a question via WhatsApp from Alexa Houter from Jefferies. And she was asking the same question about the AT1s. Therefore, we would pass the question to you, but because Nicolas has already asked, so we're going to take that as answered. So the last but not least, we have with us Carlos Gomes Lopez from HSBC.
在我們進入下一個也是最後一個問題之前,我想確認我們透過 WhatsApp 收到了 Jefferies 的 Alexa Houter 提出的問題。她也問了關於 AT1 的同樣問題。因此,我們會將問題傳遞給您,但因為尼古拉斯已經問過,所以我們將把它作為答案。最後但並非最不重要的一點是,我們有來自匯豐銀行的卡洛斯·戈麥斯·洛佩茲。
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Senior Analyst, Latin America Financials
So I'm going to a minor issue. It's also about tax. Can you comment on the possible effect of the first tax reform on indirect taxation and whether it changes how you manage the bank or in the future, what your expected cost base? Maybe do you see anything tangible there? And also related to tax, as part of the tax discussion, is there a possibility that they will review the way in which your foreign subsidiaries are taxed and therefore, how you envision on your foreign business?
所以我要討論一個小問題。這也與稅收有關。您能否評論一下第一次稅制改革對間接稅可能產生的影響,以及它是否會改變您管理銀行的方式或未來您的預期成本基礎是多少?也許你在那裡看到任何有形的東西?還有與稅務相關的問題,作為稅務討論的一部分,他們是否有可能審查您的外國子公司的納稅方式,以及您對外國業務的設想?
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
On the VAT reform, we have to separate the bank, I would say, in three major business lines. All services fees and so on, we are in the general provision. So whatever it's the rate, if it's 25%, that's what's been saying. We don't have the numbers defined yet. We'll be paying 25% on services and fees and it's going to be exactly like any other company, a drugstore or anyone. So what makes this complete -- make complete sense.
在增值稅改革方面,我想說,我們必須將銀行分為三大業務線。所有的服務費用等等,我們都是一般規定的。所以無論利率是多少,如果是 25%,就是我們所說的。我們還沒有定義數字。我們將支付 25% 的服務和費用,這將與任何其他公司、藥局或任何人一樣。那麼是什麼讓這一切變得完整——完全有意義。
But then we have two other provisions that we are in a special regime that's to be regulated. One of them is this spread. As you know in no country -- in any country that was -- the VAT was implemented the spread is not taxed. And today, just to give you a number, the cost of credit, the rate that which are from our clients, 20% of that is explained by the physical things which is the actual regime where we pay 465 over this spread. So the VAT on that side, what we've been hearing is that the idea is not to enhance or to increase that through the VAT because imagine what would happen if the 465 goes to 25%, even if it's in a noncumulative regime, it's still a huge increase.
但我們還有另外兩項規定,我們處於一個需要監管的特殊制度。其中之一就是這種傳播。如您所知,沒有任何國家(任何國家)實施增值稅,而利差不徵稅。今天,只是給你一個數字,信貸成本,來自我們客戶的利率,其中 20% 是由實際情況解釋的,這是我們在此利差中支付 465 美元的實際制度。因此,我們所聽到的增值稅方面,我們的想法不是透過增值稅來提高或增加增值稅,因為想像一下,如果 465 稅率達到 25% 會發生什麼,即使是在非累積制度下,仍然有巨大的增長。
So this is not the idea. This is what we've been hearing because this will produce the worst possible effect that will go to price and then will impact very strongly the activity. So this is the second one. And the third one is the payment ecosystems and it's in a special regime as well. And it's very easy to explain. So we were discussing about interest rate on credit cards, but imagine if the VAT impact the interchange, you don't have any pass-through but interest rate on the credit card business. So that's why we want to have a special discussions because there is no pass-through through the cycle, in the chain on the VAT over interchange.
所以這不是這個想法。這是我們一直聽到的,因為這將產生最糟糕的影響,進而影響價格,然後對活動產生非常強烈的影響。這是第二個。第三個是支付生態系統,它也處於特殊的製度。這很容易解釋。所以我們正在討論信用卡的利率,但想像一下,如果增值稅影響交換,那麼信用卡業務上除了利率之外沒有任何傳遞。這就是為什麼我們想要進行一次特別討論,因為在交換增值稅的鏈條中,沒有通過循環的傳遞。
So the idea is that we can take a look on that. Otherwise, we may have to gross up that from the brand and to have a new interchange fees published or it will go to the interest rate on the revolving on the installment with the interest. So it can produce a very strong impact. So that's the idea why it's separate. So let's see, we still have the discussion on the Senate. If there is any change, it will come back to the lower chamber. So we have to wait and see to understand the real impact.
所以我們的想法是我們可以看看這個。否則,我們可能必須從品牌中扣除費用,並公佈新的交換費,否則它將轉入分期付款循環利率和利息。所以它能夠產生非常強烈的影響。這就是為什麼它是分開的。那麼讓我們看看,我們仍在參議院進行討論。如果有任何變化,就會回到下室。因此,我們必須拭目以待,才能了解真正的影響。
But mostly, it will make the activity a little bit more expensive. There is no other way of doing so. So most part of that will go to price, there is a pass-through, okay? And then on the other side, on the reform, we don't have, at this moment, a very deep knowledge about what will be the second chapter of the tax reform. We have to wait and see. There's a lot of discussions going on. I think the focus and the priority is to approve the actual -- the one that was approved already in the lower chamber. So let's wait and see. So we can have a little bit more color. There is a project law that is in the Congress, but it's an old one. So we imagine that some reforms, some changes will be done by the technical team and a lot of discussions in the coming months involving all the segments, the sectors. So this is how I see that. So let's wait and see.
但大多數情況下,這會讓活動變得更昂貴。沒有其他方法可以做到這一點。所以大部分都會花在價格上,有個轉嫁,好嗎?另一方面,關於改革,目前我們對稅改的第二章還沒有非常深入的了解。我們必須拭目以待。目前正在進行很多討論。我認為重點和優先事項是批准實際的——已經在下議院批准的。所以讓我們拭目以待。所以我們可以多一點顏色。國會有一項項目法,但它是舊的。因此,我們想像技術團隊將進行一些改革、一些改變,並在未來幾個月內進行大量涉及所有細分市場、部門的討論。這就是我的看法。所以讓我們拭目以待。
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
Renato Lulia Jacob - Group Head of IR & Market Intelligence
14 questions. It was the last question. And with that, we will close the Q&A, but also, we will call the earnings call, but before we say goodbye, we're going to answer all questions that we received via WhatsApp. We got a lot of questions. Thank you very much for all of you that were in our call. Milton, the floor is yours for your final thoughts.
14 個問題。這是最後一個問題。至此,我們將結束問答,同時我們還將召開財報電話會議,但在我們說再見之前,我們將回答透過 WhatsApp 收到的所有問題。我們有很多問題。非常感謝所有參與我們通話的人。米爾頓,請您談談最後的想法。
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Milton Maluhy Filho - CEO & Member of Executive Board
Thank you. It's always a great pleasure. Thank you once again for being here, taking part in our call. And it's good that we have an open communication, transparent communication. I just thank you about the recognition that we got and with a lot of humility, this is the word.
謝謝。這總是一種極大的樂趣。再次感謝您來到這裡參加我們的電話會議。我們能夠進行開放、透明的溝通,這很好。我只是感謝你們對我們的認可,並且非常謙虛,這就是這個詞。
Everybody is certain of the challenges. Everybody is working with a lot of energy to continue to deliver the results and surprising our customers. This is our agenda for transformation. So thank you for your time, for your questions. Always, I would like to thank the 100,000 [Itaurs] that do a strong work with high levels of energy, and we are at a special moment, very happy with what we delivered, but certain that this is a never-ending game.
每個人都確信面臨的挑戰。每個人都在投入大量精力,繼續交付成果,讓我們的客戶感到驚訝。這是我們的轉型議程。感謝您抽出寶貴時間提出問題。我始終要感謝100,000 名[Itaurs],他們精力充沛,工作出色,我們正處於一個特殊的時刻,對我們所交付的成果感到非常滿意,但可以肯定的是,這是一場永無止境的遊戲。
It's not going to be over the next -- this quarter. It's going to be over the next few quarters. We're going to discuss the perspective. The provocations are always welcome with focus and discipline and energy, so we can deliver that level of profitability and performing above the average of the market. Thank you very much, and we will see each other in the next earnings call. We will see each other in the bilateral meetings. Thank you.
這不會在下一個季度結束。這將持續到接下來的幾個季度。我們將討論觀點。我們總是以專注、紀律和精力歡迎挑釁,因此我們能夠實現這種水平的盈利能力並表現出高於市場平均水平的表現。非常感謝,我們將在下次財報電話會議上見面。我們將在雙邊會面中見面。謝謝。
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call]
[本筆錄中的英文陳述由現場通話中的口譯員說出]