使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning. And welcome to the Iridium Communications Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host today, Ken Levy. Please go ahead, sir.
早上好。歡迎參加銥星通信 2019 年第四季度收益電話會議。(操作員說明)。請注意,此事件正在被記錄。我現在想把今天的會議交給主持人肯·利維 (Ken Levy)。請繼續,先生。
Kenneth B. Levy - VP of IR
Kenneth B. Levy - VP of IR
Thank you, Keith. Good morning. And welcome to Iridium's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. Joining me on this morning's call are CEO, Matt Desch; and our CFO, Tom Fitzpatrick. Today's call will begin with a discussion of our fourth quarter results followed by Q&A.
謝謝你,基思。早上好。歡迎參加 Iridium 2019 年第四季度收益電話會議。與我一起參加今天早上電話會議的是首席執行官 Matt Desch;和我們的首席財務官湯姆·菲茨帕特里克。今天的電話會議將首先討論我們第四季度的業績,然後進行問答。
I trust you've had an opportunity to review this morning's earnings release, which is available on the Investor Relations section of Iridium's website. Before I turn things over to Matt, I'd like to caution all participants that our call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
我相信您已經有機會查看今天上午的收益發布,該發布可以在銥星網站的投資者關係部分找到。在我將事情轉交給馬特之前,我想提醒所有參與者,我們的電話會議可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。
Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical fact and include statements about our future expectations, plans and prospects. Such forward-looking statements are based upon our current beliefs and expectations and are subject to risks which could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements. Such risks are more fully discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our remarks today should be considered in light of such risks. Any forward-looking statements represent our views only as of today, and while we may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so even if our views and expectations have changed. During the call, we'll also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including operational EBITDA and pro forma free cash flow, free cash flow yield and free cash flow conversion. These non-GAAP financial measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Please refer to today's earnings release and the Investor Relations website for a further explanation of our non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures. With that, let me turn things over to Matt.
前瞻性陳述是非歷史事實的陳述,包括有關我們未來的期望、計劃和前景的陳述。此類前瞻性陳述基於我們當前的信念和期望,並存在可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的風險。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中更全面地討論了此類風險。我們今天的言論應該考慮到此類風險。任何前瞻性陳述僅代表我們截至今天的觀點,雖然我們可能選擇在未來某個時候更新前瞻性陳述,但我們明確表示不承擔任何這樣做的義務,即使我們的觀點和期望發生了變化。在電話會議中,我們還將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標,包括運營 EBITDA 和預計自由現金流、自由現金流收益率和自由現金流轉換。這些非公認會計準則財務指標並非按照公認會計原則編制。請參閱今天的收益報告和投資者關係網站,了解我們的非公認會計原則財務指標的進一步說明以及最直接可比的公認會計原則指標的調節。接下來,讓我把事情交給馬特。
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. So it was only a bit more than a year ago that we were toasting the 8th and final launch of our Iridium NEXT satellites and celebrating the completion of our new constellation. And of course, that was just the start of a milestone year filled with many accomplishments.
謝謝,肯。大家,早安。因此,就在一年多前,我們才慶祝第八次也是最後一次銥星 NEXT 衛星的發射,並慶祝新星座的建成。當然,這只是充滿了許多成就的里程碑一年的開始。
As far as those satellites go, we continue to be very happy with our new network and all its new capabilities. Tom will go into detail on 2019's numbers and our 2020 outlook, but a few trends really stood out to me particularly in context of our recent performance.
就這些衛星而言,我們仍然對我們的新網絡及其所有新功能感到非常滿意。Tom 將詳細介紹 2019 年的數據和我們 2020 年的前景,但有一些趨勢對我來說確實很突出,特別是在我們最近的表現的背景下。
Obviously, beating 2019 guidance on operational EBITDA was noteworthy as was achieving another year strong subscriber and service revenue growth.
顯然,超過 2019 年運營 EBITDA 指引值得關注,同時用戶和服務收入又實現強勁增長。
In 2019, Iridium delivered a 16% increase in net billable subscribers as well as double-digit revenue growth in IoT, government and hosted payload. Not bad for a transition year.
2019 年,Iridium 的淨計費用戶增長了 16%,物聯網、政府和託管有效負載方面的收入也實現了兩位數的增長。對於過渡年來說還不錯。
To put this in context, even as we were building our new satellite network over the last 5 years, we grew our operational EBITDA at a 9% CAGR, which is really outstanding for the satellite industry, and we're excited about our opportunities for growth in the future. Perhaps a more meaningful step for our investors was that we generated $168 million in pro forma free cash flow in 2019. This is a dramatic flip from prior years when we were spending significant capital on our network build.
考慮到這一點,即使我們在過去 5 年裡建設新的衛星網絡,我們的運營 EBITDA 仍以 9% 的複合年增長率增長,這對於衛星行業來說確實非常出色,我們對我們的機會感到興奮未來的增長。也許對我們的投資者來說更有意義的一步是我們在 2019 年產生了 1.68 億美元的預計自由現金流。與前幾年我們在網絡建設上投入大量資金相比,這是一個巨大的轉變。
As you know, we believe investors should increasingly be focused on our cash flow going forward. Metrics like free cash flow, cash conversion, cash flow yield and the like, and evaluating us on it. We think we stacked up particularly well on these measures versus other firms in the communications infrastructure space, many of whom enjoy higher valuation multiples than Iridium. These new metrics we're focusing on are important as they should drive real shareholder returns.
如您所知,我們認為投資者應該越來越關注我們未來的現金流。自由現金流、現金轉換、現金流收益率等指標,並據此對我們進行評估。我們認為,與通信基礎設施領域的其他公司相比,我們在這些指標上的表現尤其出色,其中許多公司的估值倍數高於銥星公司。我們關注的這些新指標很重要,因為它們應該推動真正的股東回報。
After lots of effort and investment, we finally reached what I've been calling financial maturity. What I mean by this is that Iridium has become self-sustaining, especially as we look to the future.
經過大量的努力和投資,我們終於達到了我所說的財務成熟度。我的意思是,銥星已經能夠自我維持,特別是當我們展望未來時。
In contrast, throughout Iridium's 30-year history, we've been beholden to the financial markets to supply debt and equity need to build and upgrade our network. At times since I've been here, obtaining needed capital as a very challenging proposition given our level of revenue, the state of the capital markets and the operational risk we faced in launching a new network.
相比之下,在銥星的 30 年曆史中,我們一直依賴金融市場來提供建設和升級網絡所需的債務和股權。自從我來到這里以來,考慮到我們的收入水平、資本市場的狀況以及我們在啟動新網絡時面臨的運營風險,獲得所需的資金有時是一個非常具有挑戰性的提議。
Today, we're in a much different place. In light of our market position, revenue growth and expectations for significant cash generation for years in the future, we now believe that our destiny is in our own hands; particularly so as we've chosen a unique and differentiated path compared to all other satellite players, including existing competitors as well as the new LEO systems being launched today. We have an exciting open lane in front of us for continued growth in areas like specialty broadband services with our new Iridium Certus platform, best-in-class satellite IoT services and consumer-oriented personal communication services. These and the unique new services like Aireon and Satellite Time and Location are all showing great potential.
今天,我們處於一個非常不同的地方。鑑於我們的市場地位、收入增長以及未來幾年對大量現金產生的預期,我們現在相信我們的命運掌握在我們自己手中;特別是,與所有其他衛星參與者(包括現有競爭對手以及今天推出的新 LEO 系統)相比,我們選擇了一條獨特且差異化的道路。我們面前有一條令人興奮的開放通道,可以通過我們的新 Iridium Certus 平台在專業寬帶服務、一流的衛星物聯網服務和麵向消費者的個人通信服務等領域持續增長。這些以及 Aireon 和衛星時間和位置等獨特的新服務都顯示出巨大的潛力。
Our new broadband offering has really thrust Iridium into the mainstream in maritime. 2019 was our first year with this new offering, and I think we did very well. Iridium Certus launched in the first quarter was recently upgraded in speed, making it the fastest L-band service available. It is also more affordable, provides better coverage and has other benefits compared to the incumbent offering. Plus, our partners love selling it. This is why it's both great as a stand-alone service and increasingly being paired with VSAT as a companion product. Today, we have more than 1,200 active subscribers using Iridium Certus and believe that the pace of activations will continue to ramp as new distribution partners and products come online.
我們的新寬帶產品確實將銥星推向了海事領域的主流。2019 年是我們推出這項新產品的第一年,我認為我們做得非常好。第一季度推出的 Iridium Certus 最近進行了速度升級,使其成為最快的 L 波段服務。與現有產品相比,它還更實惠,提供更好的覆蓋範圍,並具有其他優勢。另外,我們的合作夥伴喜歡銷售它。這就是為什麼它既可以作為一項出色的獨立服務,又越來越多地與 VSAT 配套作為配套產品。如今,我們擁有超過 1,200 名使用 Iridium Certus 的活躍訂閱者,並且相信隨著新的分銷合作夥伴和產品上線,激活速度將繼續加快。
With several new terminals scheduled for introduction this year, we have a very competitive offering to grow our footprint. It also helps that we've just been formally authorized for GMDSS service, which will roll out in the coming months. Adding Iridium Certus aviation and U.S. government customers to this mix in the coming years as well as partnerships supporting the new LEO mega constellations, and we think the runway for growth in Iridium Certus broadband is quite exciting. To help you better track this growth, we will begin breaking out service revenues from our broadband services starting in the first quarter.
今年計劃推出多個新碼頭,我們擁有非常有競爭力的產品來擴大我們的足跡。這也有助於我們剛剛獲得 GMDSS 服務的正式授權,該服務將在未來幾個月內推出。未來幾年,Iridium Certus 航空和美國政府客戶將加入到這一組合中,並建立支持新 LEO 巨型星座的合作夥伴關係,我們認為 Iridium Certus 寬帶的增長前景非常令人興奮。為了幫助您更好地跟踪這一增長,我們將從第一季度開始對寬帶服務的服務收入進行細分。
IoT has become a core market for Iridium with this compounded annual subscriber growth, topping 25% over the last 10 years. IoT posted another great year of growth in 2019 and now generates 27% of our commercial revenue today.
物聯網已成為 Iridium 的核心市場,用戶年復合增長率在過去 10 年高達 25%。物聯網在 2019 年又取得了巨大的增長,目前占我們商業收入的 27%。
We expect this figure to increase on the continued strong momentum we see moving forward. Our network is perfect for consumer and enterprise-oriented personal communication devices, and that's been driving a lot of our subscriber growth in recent years.
我們預計這一數字將隨著我們看到的持續強勁的發展勢頭而增加。我們的網絡非常適合面向消費者和企業的個人通信設備,這在近年來推動了我們用戶的大量增長。
With expanding offerings from Garmin and quite a few other partners, we still think our brightest days are ahead. We also benefit from being network of choice for industrial IoT solutions where reliability and coverage are critical. You've seen this in the heavy equipment OEM space where we've been adopted by the largest manufacturers over the last few years. Our partner ecosystem remains one of the key reasons for our IoT success. We added over 20 new partners alone in 2019, and I don't see that pace slowing.
隨著 Garmin 和許多其他合作夥伴提供的產品不斷擴展,我們仍然認為我們最光明的日子就在前方。我們還受益於成為可靠性和覆蓋範圍至關重要的工業物聯網解決方案的首選網絡。您已經在重型設備 OEM 領域看到了這一點,過去幾年我們已被最大的製造商採用。我們的合作夥伴生態系統仍然是我們物聯網成功的關鍵原因之一。僅 2019 年我們就增加了 20 多個新合作夥伴,而且我認為這一速度不會放緩。
With over 450 partners today, we touch a lot of diverse IoT opportunities. However, we're really only scratching the surface. And particularly, we see growth in areas like agriculture, transportation and the emergence of autonomous shipping and unmanned aerial vehicles. As our new Iridium Certus mid-band devices become commercially available later this year, the ability to expand the types of IoT data set, including things like pictures, will only expand our market potential further. At the same time, our strategy is to make it as easy as possible for these industries to utilize Iridium IoT in their applications, and that's become much easier with the launch of Iridium CloudConnect through our relationship with Amazon Web Services. That service went live last month. Another avenue that will facilitate and accelerate our growth is to provide partners with innovative new integrated devices that make it easier and faster for them to get services on our network, which expedites time-to-revenue and improves their margins. We've had good success on that front with the introduction of Iridium Edge in 2017 that integrated our IoT transceiver with an L-band antenna for plug-and-play simplicity to extend existing cellular based applications to satellite. Since its introduction, our partners have purchased over 10,000 of these devices for their customers.
如今,我們擁有超過 450 個合作夥伴,接觸到了許多不同的物聯網機會。然而,我們實際上只是觸及了表面。特別是,我們看到農業、交通運輸以及自主航運和無人機等領域的增長。隨著我們新的 Iridium Certus 中頻設備在今年晚些時候投入商用,擴展物聯網數據集類型(包括圖片等)的能力只會進一步擴大我們的市場潛力。與此同時,我們的戰略是讓這些行業盡可能輕鬆地在其應用程序中使用 Iridium IoT,而通過我們與 Amazon Web Services 的合作推出 Iridium CloudConnect,這變得更加容易。該服務於上個月上線。促進和加速我們增長的另一個途徑是為合作夥伴提供創新的新型集成設備,使他們能夠更輕鬆、更快速地在我們的網絡上獲得服務,從而加快創收時間並提高利潤。我們在 2017 年推出了 Iridium Edge,在這方面取得了巨大成功,該產品將我們的物聯網收發器與 L 波段天線集成在一起,實現即插即用的簡單性,將現有的基於蜂窩的應用擴展到衛星。自推出以來,我們的合作夥伴已為其客戶購買了 10,000 多台此類設備。
In the next few months, we'll -- we're introducing 2 more products in this category to integrate additional components for ease and speed. The Iridium Edge Solar will integrate solar power to offer a very low-cost and long-lasting tracking device to support asset tracking right out of the box. And the new Iridium Edge Pro device will incorporate a processor in GPS, so that partners have an all-in-one integrated package to develop their applications more easily. We see interest from our partners for these devices and together with Iridium CloudConnect, we believe 2020 will bring new momentum and keep our IoT business on a roll.
在接下來的幾個月中,我們將在該類別中推出另外 2 種產品,以集成更多組件,以實現輕鬆和快速。Iridium Edge Solar 將集成太陽能,提供一種成本非常低且持久的跟踪設備,支持開箱即用的資產跟踪。而新的Iridium Edge Pro設備將在GPS中集成處理器,以便合作夥伴擁有一體化的集成包,更輕鬆地開發他們的應用程序。我們看到我們的合作夥伴對這些設備感興趣,並且與 Iridium CloudConnect 一起,我們相信 2020 年將帶來新的動力,並使我們的物聯網業務保持良好發展。
Finally, 2019 was a great year for our relationship with the U.S. government, which continues to evolve and grow stronger. The highlight was obviously the new long-term fixed-price contract for our existing narrowband services, but you should also take note of other -- the other 2 long-term government contracts we sign. They contributed to the jump in engineering services we're seeing as we support the government's diverse uses of Iridium for another decade. This new investment on infrastructure and R&D is an indication of the close collaborative relationship we have with the DoD. While the EMSS contract establishes a base for their Iridium services, we anticipate building on this foundation with new incremental pay-for-use services like Iridium Certus broadband. I still think investors may not fully appreciate the range of our business potential with the U.S. government. Beyond the contracts we signed with the DoD in 2019, we have significant opportunities to grow our relationship. This is because Iridium can fill large gap in capabilities and coverage that exist in the government's relationship with other satellite operators.
最後,2019 年對於我們與美國政府的關係來說是偉大的一年,這種關係不斷發展並變得更加牢固。亮點顯然是我們現有窄帶服務的新長期固定價格合同,但您還應該注意其他 - 我們簽署的其他兩份長期政府合同。當我們支持政府在下一個十年對銥的多種用途時,他們為我們所看到的工程服務的飛躍做出了貢獻。這項對基礎設施和研發的新投資表明了我們與國防部的密切合作關係。雖然 EMSS 合同為其 Iridium 服務奠定了基礎,但我們預計在此基礎上推出新的增量按使用付費服務,例如 Iridium Certus 寬帶。我仍然認為投資者可能沒有完全意識到我們與美國政府的商業潛力範圍。除了 2019 年與國防部簽署的合同之外,我們還有重要的機會來發展我們的關係。這是因為銥星可以填補政府與其他衛星運營商關係中存在的能力和覆蓋範圍方面的巨大差距。
With 14% compound annual subscriber growth over the last decade and 135,000 active government subscribers today, we continue to view our relationship with the U.S. government as a source of innovation and mutual collaboration for many years to come. Another relationship that is creating significant upside for us is Aireon.
過去 10 年訂閱用戶複合增長率為 14%,如今活躍政府訂閱用戶已達 135,000 名,我們繼續將與美國政府的關係視為未來許多年創新和相互合作的源泉。另一個為我們創造顯著優勢的關係是 Aireon。
I'm really proud of the progress Aireon made in 2019 as they commercialized their service. The rate of customer additions remain strong, and this is evidenced by our step-up in data revenues, which we announced earlier this year. Over the past 6 months, air traffic controllers around the world have begun managing air traffic using Aireon data, and this is providing real safety and efficiency benefits to airlines and the traveling public. While we have always expected Aireon would become a mainstream service, our optimism about their potential has only strengthened with the success of their commercial introduction. I'm particularly excited that Aireon is now going into initial use by the FAA in their Miami airspace. And Aireon's pipeline for other new customers remains strong.
我對 Aireon 在 2019 年將其服務商業化所取得的進展感到非常自豪。客戶增加率仍然強勁,我們今年早些時候宣布的數據收入的增長就證明了這一點。在過去的 6 個月中,世界各地的空中交通管制員已開始使用 Aireon 數據管理空中交通,這為航空公司和出行公眾提供了真正的安全和效率優勢。雖然我們一直期望 Aireon 將成為主流服務,但隨著其商業推廣的成功,我們對其潛力的樂觀態度只會更加強烈。我特別興奮的是,Aireon 現在將由美國聯邦航空局在邁阿密空域進行首次使用。Aireon 的其他新客戶渠道依然強勁。
Aireon expect to generate positive operating cash flow this year and to pay us significant dividends in the years to come. This gives us confidence in our long-term view that Iridium's equity stake in Aireon will be a meaningful source of value creation for our shareholders.
Aireon 預計今年將產生正的運營現金流,並在未來幾年向我們支付大量股息。這讓我們對自己的長期觀點充滿信心,即銥星在 Aireon 的股權將成為我們股東創造價值的重要來源。
Reflecting on all this, Iridium has created a very powerful business platform built on a new network, delivering unique and differentiated services, generating strong growth. And as a result, it's poised to generate a significant amount of cash in the coming years. I can't help looking back proudly over how far we've come, but I'm really more focused on our tremendous opportunities we see going forward. We are positioned as a long-term leader in L-band satellite mobility services, and our competitive position has actually improved over the last few years, even as the others in this sectors have struggled. I'm excited for 2020 as all the plans we have set into motion for continued growth and innovation with our expanding ecosystem of partners.
考慮到這一切,銥星創建了一個基於新網絡的非常強大的業務平台,提供獨特和差異化的服務,帶來強勁的增長。因此,它有望在未來幾年產生大量現金。我情不自禁地自豪地回顧我們已經取得的成就,但我更關注我們未來看到的巨大機遇。我們被定位為 L 波段衛星移動服務領域的長期領導者,儘管該領域的其他公司一直在苦苦掙扎,但我們的競爭地位在過去幾年中實際上有所提高。我對 2020 年感到興奮,因為我們已經啟動了所有計劃,以通過不斷擴大的合作夥伴生態系統實現持續增長和創新。
For Iridium, the best is yet to come. With that, I'll turn it over to Tom for a review of our financials. Tom?
對於銥星來說,最好的時刻尚未到來。這樣,我將把它交給湯姆來審查我們的財務狀況。湯姆?
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thanks, Matt. Good morning, everyone. Having just wrapped up another great year for Iridium, I'd like to start with a recap of our 2019 financial results and provide some color on our fourth quarter performance. I'll then walk through the key components supporting our 2020 outlook, discuss the refinancing activities we've executed in recent months and conclude with a review of Iridium's free cash flow and valuation metrics, which we believe are compelling. We made steady progress executing on Iridium's financial transformation in 2019.
謝謝,馬特。大家,早安。銥星公司剛剛結束又一個偉大的一年,我想首先回顧一下我們 2019 年的財務業績,並為我們第四季度的業績提供一些信息。然後,我將介紹支持我們 2020 年前景的關鍵組成部分,討論我們近幾個月執行的再融資活動,最後回顧銥星的自由現金流和估值指標,我們認為這些指標很引人注目。2019 年,我們在銥星的財務轉型方面取得了穩步進展。
As Matt noted, we achieved another year of strong growth in billable subscribers, service revenue and operational EBITDA. Beyond these metrics, Iridium also generated $168 million in pro forma free cash flow, which marked our return to positive free cash flow in 2019 and drove additional balance sheet deleveraging.
正如馬特指出的那樣,我們在計費用戶、服務收入和運營 EBITDA 方面又實現了強勁增長。除了這些指標之外,銥星還產生了 1.68 億美元的預計自由現金流,這標誌著我們在 2019 年恢復了正自由現金流,並推動了額外的資產負債表去槓桿化。
In fiscal 2019, total service revenue and operational EBITDA both grew 10%. This strong performance was driven by continued momentum in our commercial business, highlighted by meaningful ramp in hosted payload revenue and IoT.
2019財年,服務總收入和運營EBITDA均增長10%。這一強勁的業績得益於我們商業業務的持續增長勢頭,其中託管有效負載收入和物聯網的大幅增長凸顯了這一點。
In the fourth quarter, Iridium reported total revenue of $138.9 million, which was up 5% from last year's comparable period. This growth was attributable to strong trends in commercial voice and commercial IoT and new long-term contracts with the U.S. government, which drove incremental service revenue and engineering and support work this quarter.
第四季度,銥星總營收為1.389億美元,比去年同期增長5%。這一增長歸因於商業語音和商業物聯網的強勁趨勢以及與美國政府的新長期合同,這推動了本季度服務收入以及工程和支持工作的增量。
Operational EBITDA rose 6% from the prior year's quarter to $80.1 million. The commercial side of our business remains strong and generated revenue of $88.6 million in the fourth quarter. Revenue from commercial voice and data increased 5% and from the prior year period, reflecting demand for Iridium's new broadband offering and increased access in roaming revenue.
運營 EBITDA 較上年同期增長 6%,達到 8010 萬美元。我們的商業業務依然強勁,第四季度收入達 8860 萬美元。商業語音和數據收入較上年同期增長 5%,反映了對銥星新寬帶產品的需求以及漫遊收入接入的增加。
In commercial IoT, personal communication devices continue to fuel new subscriber and revenue growth. IoT subs rose 24% from the prior year's quarter, while revenue grew 13%. While these consumer-oriented plans have lower ARPUs, they are particularly attractive in terms of revenue generation relative to network resources used, making them an ideal source of incremental revenue.
在商業物聯網中,個人通信設備繼續推動新用戶和收入增長。物聯網用戶較上年同期增長 24%,收入增長 13%。雖然這些面向消費者的計劃的 ARPU 較低,但相對於所使用的網絡資源而言,它們在創收方面特別有吸引力,使其成為增量收入的理想來源。
For the year, personal communication services and consumer IoT were responsible for over 100,000 new subscribers on our network.
今年,個人通信服務和消費者物聯網為我們的網絡帶來了超過 100,000 名新用戶。
In all, commercial subscribers grew 16% year-over-year and IoT subscribers now represent 69% of billable commercial subs, up from 64% in the year-ago period. Revenue from hosted payload and other data service was $12.1 million in the fourth quarter, down 15% from the year-ago period.
總體而言,商業用戶同比增長 16%,物聯網用戶目前佔可計費商業用戶的 69%,高於去年同期的 64%。第四季度託管有效負載和其他數據服務的收入為 1210 萬美元,比去年同期下降 15%。
You will recall that in the fourth quarter of 2018, Iridium recognized a $4.5 million catch-up revenue adjustment from Satellite Time and Location services. Government service revenue grew 14% in the fourth quarter to $25 million, reflecting the terms of our new EMSS contract with the U.S. government.
您可能還記得,2018 年第四季度,銥星確認衛星時間和定位服務的收入調整為 450 萬美元。第四季度政府服務收入增長 14%,達到 2500 萬美元,反映了我們與美國政府簽訂的新 EMSS 合同的條款。
During the same period, government subscribers grew a robust 19%, underscoring the utility of Iridium connectivity for the Department of Defense. Total government subscribers ended the year at a record $135,000.
同一時期,政府用戶增長了 19%,凸顯了銥星連接對於國防部的實用性。截至年底,政府訂閱者總數達到創紀錄的 135,000 美元。
Revenue from subscriber equipment continued to reflect our outlook for moderation from 2018's record pace. Equipment revenue fell 15% to $17.1 million in the fourth quarter. We believe 2019's equipment revenue is more in line with the long-term trends we've experienced in handset sales.
用戶設備收入繼續反映出我們對 2018 年創紀錄增長速度放緩的預期。第四季度設備收入下降 15% 至 1710 萬美元。我們認為 2019 年的設備收入更符合我們在手機銷售方面經歷的長期趨勢。
In 2020, we forecast operational EBITDA in a range of between $355 million and $365 million. Predicated on total service revenue growth between 6% and 8%, over 2019's level of $447.2 million.
2020 年,我們預測運營 EBITDA 在 3.55 億美元至 3.65 億美元之間。預計總服務收入將比 2019 年 4.472 億美元的水平增長 6% 至 8%。
The key elements supporting this outlook are as follows: first, we expect service revenue to benefit from continued strength in IoT, growth in hosting revenue, Iridium service broadband activations and the contractual step-up in our government contract.
支持這一前景的關鍵因素如下:首先,我們預計服務收入將受益於物聯網的持續強勁、託管收入的增長、銥星服務寬帶激活以及政府合同的升級。
In IoT, we have good visibility to our partners' business plans and expect the demand for reliable, low-latency personal communication devices to continue, which makes us comfortable forecasting double-digit subscriber growth for IoT for 2020.
在物聯網領域,我們對合作夥伴的業務計劃有很好的了解,並預計對可靠、低延遲的個人通信設備的需求將持續下去,這使我們可以放心地預測 2020 年物聯網用戶將實現兩位數增長。
We also anticipate approximately $47 million in revenue from hosted payloads in 2020. This increase reflects the full run rate of our data power and hosting contracts with Aireon and L3 Harris, including the $800,000 step-up in monthly data service fees we announced for Aireon earlier this year.
我們還預計 2020 年託管有效負載的收入約為 4700 萬美元。這一增長反映了我們與 Aireon 和 L3 Harris 的數據電力和託管合同的全部運行率,包括我們今年早些時候宣佈為 Aireon 宣布的每月數據服務費增加 800,000 美元。
On our new EMSS contract with the U.S. government, this contract started on September 15 at $100 million annual rate and will reach a contractual step up on its anniversary to $103 million. We also expect equipment revenue to increase in 2020 from 2019. This outlook is predicated on expectations for relatively flat handset sales in 2020, but it increased to other products due to technology migration and resulting last-time buys.
根據我們與美國政府簽訂的新 EMSS 合同,該合同於 9 月 15 日開始,年費率為 1 億美元,並將在其周年紀念日將合同金額提高到 1.03 億美元。我們還預計 2020 年設備收入將比 2019 年有所增長。這一前景是基於對 2020 年手機銷量相對持平的預期,但由於技術遷移和由此產生的最後一次購買,其他產品的銷量有所增加。
Finally, we continue to expect negligible cash taxes in 2020, and consistent with our previous guidance, we currently estimate negligible cash taxes through 2023.
最後,我們仍然預計 2020 年的現金稅可以忽略不計,並且與我們之前的指導一致,我們目前估計到 2023 年現金稅可以忽略不計。
Thereafter, our outlook calls for an estimated cash tax rate at mid- to high single digits until 2028. As you can surmise from our 2020 outlook, Iridium is a completely different company today than we -- when we began Iridium NEXT program 10 years ago. We have a much stronger earnings profitable -- profile, lower capital needs and the ability to generate significant free cash flow at a growth rate that exceeds our growth in EBITDA.
此後,我們預計到 2028 年現金稅率預計將保持在中高個位數。正如您從我們 2020 年展望中推測的那樣,今天的 Iridium 與我們 10 年前開始 Iridium NEXT 計劃時完全不同。我們的盈利能力更強,資本需求更低,並且有能力以超過 EBITDA 增長的速度產生大量自由現金流。
Moving forward, we expect total CapEx to average about $35 million per year. Now focusing on our balance sheet. As of December 31, 2019, Iridium had a cash and cash equivalents balance of $223.6 million. At the end of the first quarter, with the retirement of our high-yield notes, we expect our cash balance to be around $50 million and grow from there.
展望未來,我們預計每年總資本支出平均約為 3500 萬美元。現在關注我們的資產負債表。截至2019年12月31日,銥星的現金和現金等價物餘額為2.236億美元。在第一季度末,隨著我們高收益票據的退出,我們預計我們的現金餘額將達到 5000 萬美元左右,並在此基礎上繼續增長。
We closed 2019 with leverage at 4.8x OEBITDA. This was down from 5.2x a year earlier and in line with our forecast, which reflects the impact of refinancing our credit facility with BPIAE in November.
2019 年末,我們的槓桿率為 4.8 倍 OEBITDA。這比一年前的 5.2 倍有所下降,符合我們的預測,這反映了我們 11 月份通過 BPIAE 進行信貸安排再融資的影響。
We continue to expect that net leverage will fall in 2020 to approximately 4x OEBITDA as we exit the year. Earlier this month, we retired $360 million of 10.25% high-yield notes using excess cash and the proceeds from a $200 million tack on to our existing term loan facility, which is priced at LIBOR plus 375 basis points. This refinancing, together with the retirement of our BPIAE facility in November materially reduces our annual interest expense moving forward.
我們繼續預計,隨著 2020 年退出,淨槓桿率將在 2020 年下降至約 4 倍 OEBITDA。本月早些時候,我們使用多餘的現金以及從我們現有的定期貸款安排中追加的 2 億美元的收益,註銷了 3.6 億美元的 10.25% 高收益票據,該貸款的定價為倫敦銀行同業拆借利率 (LIBOR) 加 375 個基點。此次再融資,加上我們 11 月份 BPIAE 設施的退役,大大減少了我們未來的年度利息支出。
In 2019, our pro forma net interest expense was approximately $112 million. Pro forma net interest for 2020 based on our new $1.65 billion term loan is approximately $90 million, a $22 million or 20% reduction. This has a beneficial impact on our pro forma free cash flow. If we use the midpoint of our 2020 EBITDA guidance at $360 million and back off $90 million in net interest pro forma for our new debt structure, $35 million in CapEx and $26 million in working capital, inclusive of the appropriate hosted payload adjustment, we're left with pro forma free cash flow of approximately $208 million, up 20% from 2019.
2019 年,我們的預計淨利息支出約為 1.12 億美元。根據我們新增的 16.5 億美元定期貸款,預計 2020 年淨利息約為 9,000 萬美元,減少 2,200 萬美元,即減少 20%。這對我們的預計自由現金流產生了有益的影響。如果我們使用 2020 年 EBITDA 指引的中點 3.6 億美元,並為我們的新債務結構削減 9000 萬美元的淨利息、3500 萬美元的資本支出和 2600 萬美元的營運資金,包括適當的託管有效負載調整,我們'預計自由現金流約為 2.08 億美元,比 2019 年增長 20%。
This is a conversion rate in excess of 55% and suggests that our pro forma free cash flow will grow by more than double the rate of growth of EBITDA in 2020, representing a yield of approximately 5%. I know I shared a lot of numbers here, but we have posted a more detailed description and reconciliation of these cash flow metrics as a supplement on our website.
這一轉換率超過 55%,表明我們預計 2020 年自由現金流的增長將是 EBITDA 增長率的兩倍以上,即收益率約為 5%。我知道我在這里分享了很多數字,但我們已經在我們的網站上發布了這些現金流量指標的更詳細描述和調節作為補充。
It's important to note that our $200 million tack-on facility was multiple times oversubscribed and priced at 101. This suggests that LIBOR plus 375 basis points is above market pricing. We can reprice the entire $1.65 billion facility on its 6-month anniversary in May and intend to do so, assuming market conditions hold.
值得注意的是,我們 2 億美元的附加設施已多次超額認購,定價為 101。這表明 LIBOR 加 375 個基點高於市場定價。我們可以在 5 月份的 6 個月週年紀念日重新定價整個 16.5 億美元的貸款,並且假設市場條件不變,我們打算這樣做。
To illustrate, a 50-basis point reduction in our spread would yield $8.25 million in additional annual interest savings or about a 9% reduction. We believe this is an important consideration in evaluating our free cash flow growth prospects particularly given Iridium's deleveraging profile and the ability to reprice our term loan periodically if market conditions allow.
舉例來說,利差減少 50 個基點將帶來 825 萬美元的額外年度利息節省,即減少約 9%。我們認為,這是評估我們的自由現金流增長前景的一個重要考慮因素,特別是考慮到銥星的去槓桿化狀況以及在市場條件允許的情況下定期重新定價我們的定期貸款的能力。
We continue to believe that Iridium's free cash flow statistics compare quite favorably to companies in the communications infrastructure space that trade at much higher multiples than Iridium. For example, certain fiber companies trade in the high teens and certain data center companies enjoy a multiple of 20x, while the tower sector trades around 25x EBITDA. We think this is an important investment consideration in evaluating Iridium.
我們仍然認為,與通信基礎設施領域的公司相比,銥星的自由現金流統計數據相當有利,後者的交易倍數遠高於銥星。例如,某些光纖公司的交易價格高達十幾倍,某些數據中心公司的交易價格高達 20 倍,而鐵塔行業的 EBITDA 交易價格約為 25 倍。我們認為這是評估銥星的重要投資考慮因素。
In closing, 2019 was another strong year for Iridium. I continue to feel very good about the underlying strength of our business. We continue to enjoy strong top-line growth and the deployment of our upgraded satellites unlocks new revenue streams that kick off a new era of growth, characterized by strong free cash flow and declining leverage. Now that we've enhanced our financial structure. I'm very excited about the prospects of unlocking additional value for our shareholders.
最後,2019 年對於銥星來說又是強勁的一年。我仍然對我們業務的潛在實力感到非常滿意。我們繼續享受強勁的收入增長,升級衛星的部署釋放了新的收入來源,開啟了新的增長時代,其特點是強勁的自由現金流和不斷下降的槓桿率。現在我們已經增強了我們的財務結構。我對為股東釋放額外價值的前景感到非常興奮。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for the Q&A.
這樣,我想將電話轉給接線員進行問答。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from Rick Prentiss with Raymond James.
(操作員說明)第一個問題來自 Rick Prentiss 和 Raymond James。
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Tom, appreciate that color on the guidance. Did have a couple of extra questions there. First, on the hosted payload, the $47 million full run rate. There's also hosted Payload and other. Are you still expecting that other's going to run maybe in that $14 million a year that we saw in 2019 as we go into 2020?
湯姆,欣賞指南上的顏色。還有幾個額外的問題。首先,在託管有效負載方面,全額運行費用為 4700 萬美元。還有託管的有效負載和其他。當我們進入 2020 年時,您是否仍然預計其他公司的收入可能會達到我們 2019 年看到的每年 1400 萬美元?
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
No, there's -- that was in '19.
不,那是 19 年的事。
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Sorry, yes, yes.
抱歉,是的,是的。
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Hold on, let me look into that, Rick.
等一下,讓我調查一下,里克。
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Okay. Yes. Because I think total hosted and payload in the quarter was just over $12 million, but now you're up to a better run rate. So yes, if you guys can look at that.
好的。是的。因為我認為本季度的總託管和有效負載剛剛超過 1200 萬美元,但現在您可以達到更好的運行率。所以是的,如果你們能看一下的話。
While you're looking at that number, you had also previously thought that the exit of '21 for the new revenue from the broadband service would be $75 million. Is that still the thoughts? And I appreciate you guys are going to start providing actually financial breaking out that in 1Q '20.
當您查看該數字時,您之前還認為 21 世紀寬帶服務的新收入將為 7500 萬美元。仍然是這樣的想法嗎?我很感謝你們將在 20 年第一季度開始提供實際的財務突破。
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes. I mean on that one, it's still -- we just provided that really guidance pretty recently at go, and there's nothing really changed much in terms of our optimism about the service, and it's way too early to even think about making that higher or lower. It was fairly back-end loaded anyway. And some -- we're just -- we're now introducing the full speed of 704 kilobits per second this quarter, and GMDSS just got approved, and new terminals are coming online, and our -- I think we're finally have full strength in terms of all the partners like fully selling it. So full speed ahead right now. And I'd say we're still optimistic about those. Those are good numbers, really. But overall, we're still excited about sort of the market position of the service.
是的。我的意思是,在這一點上,它仍然是 - 我們最近剛剛在 go 中提供了真正的指導,並且我們對服務的樂觀態度沒有任何真正改變,而且現在考慮提高或降低還為時過早。無論如何,它是相當後端加載的。還有一些 - 我們只是 - 我們現在在本季度推出每秒 704 KB 的全速,GMDSS 剛剛獲得批准,新的終端即將上線,我們的 - 我想我們終於有了全力以赴,所有合作夥伴都喜歡全力出售它。所以現在全速前進。我想說我們仍然對這些持樂觀態度。這些數字確實不錯。但總的來說,我們仍然對該服務的市場地位感到興奮。
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Okay. And you mentioned the new LEOs. We get a lot of questions from investors about the Billionaire Space Club going on out there with SpaceX, Starlink and Amazon, potentially, and OneWeb and Boeing, lots of questions about the new LEOs.
好的。你提到了新的近地軌道。我們從投資者那裡收到了很多關於億萬富翁太空俱樂部的問題,其中包括 SpaceX、Starlink 和亞馬遜(可能還有 OneWeb 和波音),還有很多關於新近地軌道的問題。
Can you talk a little bit about how you see those -- they're in your same neighborhood, I think you've used in the past, but not the same source.
你能談談你如何看待這些——它們在你的同一個社區,我想你過去用過,但不是同一個來源。
What markets do you see these new LEOs attacking and entering? Is it aeronautical, is it maritime, is it consumer broadband? And how does their spectrum or equipment costs kind of compared to what you're trying to deliver?
您認為這些新的 LEO 將攻擊和進入哪些市場?是航空、海事還是消費者寬帶?與您想要提供的服務相比,他們的頻譜或設備成本如何?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Those are good questions that whole conferences are right now addressing. I've talked to all those guys here in the last 6, 12 months. And so every one of them is a little bit different. I'd say they're the same neighborhood, but I mean the same neighborhood in space, they're lower at orbit, but they're really completely different business models and frequencies and approaches much more closer to what the existing fixed-satellite services market is offering today versus what any kind of highly mobile personal communication kind of services that we offer today are IoT.
這些都是整個會議現在正在討論的好問題。在過去的 6 到 12 個月裡,我和這裡的所有人都談過。所以他們每個人都有點不同。我想說它們是同一個鄰居,但我的意思是太空中的同一個鄰居,它們在軌道上較低,但它們實際上是完全不同的商業模式和頻率,並且更接近現有的固定衛星當今服務市場提供的服務與我們今天提供的任何高度移動個人通信類型的服務都是物聯網。
So they're all Ka and Ku-band. I would say that they're mostly focused on what I would call the commodity broadband space, trying to provide services that compete almost more with existing VSAT and fixed-satellite services space. But even going beyond that to someone like Starlink or maybe someday, Amazon Web Services, I would say that they're even going after what I would call the core fixed market, particularly consumer kind of markets that maybe are served by Hughes and ViaSat today and -- or even by fiber and other kinds of solutions. Those are completely different markets than what Iridium is interested in or has been addressing.
所以他們都是Ka和Ku波段。我想說的是,他們主要關注我所說的商品寬帶領域,試圖提供與現有 VSAT 和固定衛星服務領域幾乎更具競爭性的服務。但即使超越這個目標,比如 Starlink 或者有一天 Amazon Web Services,我想說他們甚至會追求我所說的核心固定市場,特別是今天可能由 Hughes 和 ViaSat 提供服務的消費類市場甚至通過光纖和其他類型的解決方案。這些市場與銥星感興趣或一直致力於解決的市場完全不同。
We've stayed away from those. Those are extremely competitive markets with very complex distribution issues. Some of them, by the way, are going direct. Some of them are going through existing market channels, it appears. It's quite interesting to watch them all develop, particularly from our historical vantage points of 30 years in satellite and knowing all the challenges they have to go through. I'm rooting them on overall because I think it's interesting and good for the industry. I think there's a lot of challenges ahead in building a lot of those business, as you well know, and everyone is sort of still waiting and watching.
我們已經遠離那些了。這些市場競爭極其激烈,分銷問題也非常複雜。順便說一下,其中一些是直接去的。其中一些似乎正在通過現有的市場渠道。觀察它們的發展是非常有趣的,特別是從我們 30 年衛星行業的歷史角度來看,並且了解它們必須經歷的所有挑戰。我總體上支持它們,因為我認為這很有趣並且對整個行業有利。我認為,正如你所知,建立大量此類業務面臨著很多挑戰,而且每個人仍在等待和觀望。
On our front, we see a lot of what they're doing as complementary to what we do. So you've seen, for example, the MOU we put out with OneWeb. We're certainly talking to everybody else because we think our services are complementary to theirs as well and perhaps, at the right time. All of them are very busy just even building their systems. And I think they'll be in that mode for quite a few years to come. So I don't know that if that covered. It's a broad question, an interesting one. I know there's a lot of interest.
在我們方面,我們看到他們所做的很多事情與我們所做的事情是互補的。例如,您已經看到了我們與 OneWeb 簽訂的諒解備忘錄。我們當然正在與其他人交談,因為我們認為我們的服務也可以與他們的服務互補,而且也許是在正確的時間。他們所有人都非常忙,甚至只是構建他們的系統。我認為他們將在未來幾年內保持這種模式。所以我不知道這是否涵蓋了。這是一個廣泛的問題,也是一個有趣的問題。我知道有很多人感興趣。
But I will say only a final note, I hope they all can achieve the financial maturity I talked about faster than the 30 years it took us. I think many of them probably dream about doing it in 4 or 5, that may be a lot of challenge, and maybe it's a good thing that they have patient equity in terms of billionaires and others who are supporting them because that's what it takes from the satellite industry given the high CapEx and recurring nature of the CapEx requirements to just get to the state that Iridium has gotten to today.
但我只想說最後一點,我希望他們都能比我們30年更快地達到我所說的財務成熟度。我認為他們中的許多人可能夢想在 4 或 5 年內做到這一點,這可能是一個很大的挑戰,也許他們在億萬富翁和其他支持他們的人方面擁有耐心的股權是一件好事,因為這就是他們需要的考慮到衛星行業的高資本支出和資本支出要求的重複性,才能達到銥星今天所達到的狀態。
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Makes sense. Okay. And then one more...
說得通。好的。然後還有一個...
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Rick, just coming back to you on your -- and to answer to your question. The other's around 10. It was 10 in '19, and we see it around 10 in 2020.
里克,剛剛回來回答你的問題。另一個是10左右。19 年是 10 年,2020 年我們預計會在 10 年左右。
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Okay. Great. And then just a bigger picture, obviously, coronavirus is grabbing a lot of attention in the marketplace and the news cycle. How are you feeling about the heavy equipment market, any other global economy items, any early indications that coronavirus is affecting supply or demand?
好的。偉大的。從更大的角度來看,顯然,冠狀病毒正在市場和新聞周期中吸引大量關注。您對重型設備市場、任何其他全球經濟項目、冠狀病毒正在影響供應或需求的任何早期跡像有何看法?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes. I mean obviously, I'm watching it with as much interest as you are. It's capturing everybody, and it's going to clearly have sort of a global economic effect. I've seen like the early projections from like airlines and others about less travel and that sort of thing. So it's certainly of interest and concern to every company.
是的。我的意思顯然是,我和你一樣饒有興趣地觀看它。它正在吸引所有人,並且顯然會產生某種全球經濟影響。我看到過類似航空公司和其他公司關於減少旅行之類的早期預測。所以這肯定是每個公司都感興趣和關心的。
We're not, I'm sure, totally immune to it, but I can tell you, I haven't really seen a lot of action from any partners. Certainly, our supply chains are in good shape. We don't have a lot of exposure, for example, to China. Our inventories are good. We're not really seeing a big change in any kind of demand today. And I think it's helpful that our business is so diverse in so many businesses and areas, some of which, by the way, are related to emergency and would be on the other side of, say, supporting the coronavirus.
我確信,我們並不是完全免疫,但我可以告訴你,我還沒有看到任何合作夥伴採取很多行動。當然,我們的供應鏈狀況良好。例如,我們對中國的了解不多。我們的庫存很好。今天我們並沒有真正看到任何需求發生重大變化。我認為,我們的業務在如此多的業務和領域如此多樣化,這是有幫助的,順便說一句,其中一些與緊急情況有關,並且會在支持冠狀病毒的另一邊。
So I won't say that I don't think it'll have any impact. Certainly, it must have an impact for every company, at some point, if it gets bad enough, but we're not really seeing any impact or projecting any impact right now and what we're talking about for 2020.
所以我不會說我認為這不會產生任何影響。當然,如果情況變得足夠糟糕,它一定會在某個時候對每家公司產生影響,但我們現在並沒有真正看到或預測任何影響以及我們正在談論的 2020 年的影響。
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Richard Hamilton Prentiss - Head of Telecommunication Services Equity Research
Great. See you in a couple of weeks in D.C. for the satellite show where those conversations will probably all continue.
偉大的。幾週後我們將在華盛頓特區觀看衛星節目,屆時這些對話可能都會繼續下去。
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Keep your mask on when you come, okay, Rick?
你來的時候戴上口罩好嗎,瑞克?
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Greg Burns with Sidoti & Company.
下一個問題來自 Sidoti & Company 的 Greg Burns。
Gregory John Burns - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Gregory John Burns - Senior Equity Research Analyst
I was wondering if maybe you could give us a little bit of an update on the activity around Certus adoption. I know it was -- at the onset, it was maybe a little bit slower than you were expecting. But can you just talk about the pace of activations? Have you seen that pickup? And maybe we can just start there.
我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下有關 Certus 採用的活動的最新情況。我知道,一開始,它可能比你預期的要慢一點。但您能談談激活的速度嗎?你見過那個皮卡嗎?也許我們可以從這裡開始。
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes, we have -- but it's only been a few months, really, since we even provided that update. So it's really still too early to say it's faster or slower than expectations. I would say, with so many positive things sort of happening around the product, with partners, with new terminals, with GMDSS certification, with a faster speed, which is a firmware upgrade to existing terminals, all those things are coming and sort of affecting it and are coming into the channel and going out there.
是的,我們已經——但實際上,自從我們提供更新以來,才過去了幾個月。因此,現在說它比預期更快或更慢還為時過早。我想說,圍繞產品發生了很多積極的事情,與合作夥伴、新終端、GMDSS 認證、更快的速度、對現有終端的固件升級,所有這些事情都在發生,並在某種程度上產生影響它正在進入通道並離開那裡。
So it's going to take, I think a few months before we can start all like looking and saying, I can see that we're on track or ahead of track or behind track. So I'd say we're feeling pretty good about where we are right now, certainly good about the product and the channels and the interest in it and all the things that we've seen so far, but just really too early to kind of call out any changes to 2021 or anything here.
因此,我認為需要幾個月的時間,我們才能開始觀察並說,我可以看到我們走在正軌上、領先於正軌或落後於正軌。所以我想說,我們對我們現在的處境感覺很好,當然對產品、渠道、對它的興趣以及我們迄今為止所看到的所有事情都很好,但現在下結論還為時過早指出 2021 年或此處的任何更改。
Gregory John Burns - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Gregory John Burns - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. And I guess it was a little -- there's a little bit of uptick in your ARPU, and I know you're going to start breaking it out next quarter with Certus specifically. But could you just help us frame what your typical ARPU was maybe with OpenPort? And what we can expect from a Certus terminal going forward?
好的。我猜您的 ARPU 略有上升,我知道您將在下個季度開始與 Certus 一起突破這一點。但您能否幫助我們確定您使用 OpenPort 時的典型 ARPU 值是多少?我們對 Certus 終端的未來有何期待?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes. I mean I think you'll end up seeing that sort of with the -- we were up roughly, I don't know, on the order of 10,000 subscribers kind of with our first-generation service. And I've already given you some idea about how far we've done in the last year by adding more than 10% to that number. And I think the ARPUs were in the 200s kind of range with the OpenPort service.
是的。我的意思是,我想你最終會看到這種情況——我不知道,我們的第一代服務的訂戶數量大約為 10,000 名。我已經讓你們了解了去年我們在這個數字上增加了 10% 以上,取得了多大的進展。我認為 OpenPort 服務的 ARPU 大約在 200 左右。
They've gone up 150% to 200%, depending upon -- it's kind of a wide range, but you'll see the average will step up quite a bit with the higher speeds and the higher functionality of the Certus services. So we're seeing both new builds, both on new ships, but also on sort of new installations of stand-alone Certus, but we're also seeing a lot of companion applications. And of course, those ARPUs vary between whether their companion application, a little lower versus a stand-alone application, which can be quite a bit higher. So that all still averages considerably above where we were before and kind of bodes well for the future in terms of how much each of those incremental terminals will add to our bottom line.
它們已經上升了 150% 到 200%,具體取決於——這是一個很大的範圍,但您會發現隨著 Certus 服務的速度更快、功能更強大,平均值將大幅上升。因此,我們看到了兩種新版本,既有新船,也有獨立 Certus 的新安裝,但我們也看到了很多配套應用程序。當然,這些 ARPU 會有所不同,無論是配套應用程序的 ARPU 值較低,還是獨立應用程序的 ARPU 值可能較高。因此,所有的平均水平仍然大大高於我們之前的水平,並且就每個增量終端將為我們的利潤增加多少而言,這對未來來說是個好兆頭。
Gregory John Burns - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Gregory John Burns - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. And lastly, the equipment cost or the gross margin on the equipment this quarter was a little bit lower than I guess what it's typically been. Is that what we could expect for next year? And then lastly, on the engineering and support revenue, is this a good level to kind of model out or is it -- do you expect it to moderate in 2020?
好的。最後,本季度的設備成本或設備毛利率比我想像的通常要低一些。這是我們明年的預期嗎?最後,關於工程和支持收入,這是一個很好的模型水平嗎?或者您預計它會在 2020 年放緩嗎?
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
On the engineering and support, I think it's going to be about this level. It was up materially, it's going to be about this level in 2020.
在工程和支持方面,我認為這將是這個水平。它大幅上漲,2020 年將達到這個水平。
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes, this feels like sort of the new run rate for a while. We really have stepped up the activity with the -- with our government partner. There's an awful lot of activity around -- almost in some ways we're resource-constrained in terms of being able to handle sort of all the things that we're doing around new activities. So that's -- this is a -- this seems like a good level for us right now. And I know equipment, it's -- was a issue of mix more than anything else. And all depends on exactly what we're selling in a year.
是的,這感覺像是一段時間內的新運行率。我們確實與我們的政府合作夥伴一起加強了這項活動。周圍有大量的活動——幾乎在某些方面,我們在處理圍繞新活動所做的所有事情方面都受到資源限制。所以這——這——這對我們來說現在似乎是一個很好的水平。我知道設備,這是一個混合問題,而不是其他任何事情。一切都取決於我們一年內的銷售量。
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
It was light in -- it was light -- the margin was light in the fourth quarter. But on the full year, we're flirting with 40, and that's where we see ourselves in 2020.
第四節的利潤率很輕。但從全年來看,我們的目標是 40,這就是我們對 2020 年的展望。
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Anthony Klarman with Deutsche Bank.
下一個問題來自德意志銀行的安東尼·卡拉曼。
Anthony Francis Klarman - MD and Global Head of High Yield Research
Anthony Francis Klarman - MD and Global Head of High Yield Research
Earlier in the month, you put out an 8-K that indicated that Aireon had met some milestones in its operating agreement that it has with you that was going to trigger some additional increases in the data billing that you would collect. I'm wondering if the timing of that is that you're recognizing that immediately or if there's some ramp to that that happens throughout 2020? I think you indicated that the annualized impact was about $10 million. I guess I'm just trying to capture if that entire $10 million is baked into the guidance?
本月早些時候,您發布了一份 8-K,表明 Aireon 已達到其與您簽訂的運營協議中的一些里程碑,這將引發您收集的數據計費的一些額外增加。我想知道您是否立即意識到這一點,或者是否會在整個 2020 年出現一些進展?我認為您表示年化影響約為 1000 萬美元。我想我只是想了解這 1000 萬美元是否已納入指導中?
And then as an add-on to that, maybe Tom, or Matt, if you could remind us, are there any other important milestones in the agreement you have with Aireon, such that if they continue to scale relatively quickly could accelerate the timing of either cash payments or the buyback that I think is out there at some point in the future?
然後作為補充,也許是湯姆或馬特,如果您能提醒我們的話,您與 Aireon 達成的協議中是否還有其他重要的里程碑,這樣,如果他們繼續相對較快地擴大規模,可能會加快是現金支付還是我認為在未來某個時候會出現的回購?
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
So the -- Aireon's ability to pay off the hosting fee, right, is going to be driven by their contracts that they sign. And we've said that we see that in late 2021 or 2022 depending on their rate of adoptions. So they've been doing very well this year in terms of sign up new customers. So we can expect them to continue to do that. So that's the driver on when we get the hosting payment and then the buyback of the shares comes after that, think 2023.
因此,Aireon 支付託管費的能力將取決於他們簽署的合同。我們說過,我們預計會在 2021 年末或 2022 年實現這一目標,具體取決於它們的採用率。因此,他們今年在新客戶註冊方面做得非常好。因此,我們可以期望他們繼續這樣做。因此,這就是我們獲得託管付款的驅動力,然後是股票回購,想想 2023 年。
And yes, Anthony, the step-up is $800 000 a month. So there's your $10 million a year. So it's out of the gate.
是的,安東尼,每月的加薪是 80 萬美元。這樣你每年就有 1000 萬美元。所以它就出在門外了。
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
And that happened right off the bat, really in the beginning of the year. So you expect that to be that level through the year, and that was all put into our guidance now. So we have good visibility to exactly what Aireon is going to deliver us this year.
這件事立即發生了,實際上是在今年年初。所以你預計全年都會達到這個水平,而這一切現在都已納入我們的指導中。因此,我們對 Aireon 今年將向我們提供的產品有很好的了解。
Anthony Francis Klarman - MD and Global Head of High Yield Research
Anthony Francis Klarman - MD and Global Head of High Yield Research
Yes, got it. And then maybe, Tom, now that the recapitalization is complete, and you've taken out the high-yield notes and you have an all term loan structure. I guess could you just remind us a little bit about your financial policy? I think you had previously indicated a long-term leverage target of 2.5 to 3.5x over the long term. Your guidance has you, only 0.5 turn above that at 4x net leverage at the end of '20. How do you think about uses of free cash flow here? And do you have any sort of update it to your financial policy about how you prioritize cash here?
是的,明白了。湯姆,也許現在資本重組已經完成,你已經拿出了高收益票據,並且你有了一個長期貸款結構。我想您能否提醒我們一些有關您的財務政策的信息?我認為您之前曾表示長期槓桿目標為 2.5 至 3.5 倍。根據您的指導,到 20 世紀末,淨槓桿率為 4 倍時,僅比您高出 0.5 倍。您如何看待這裡自由現金流的用途?關於如何優先考慮現金,您的財務政策是否有任何更新?
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
So no, we still think leverage between 2.5 and 3.5x is right. And we see ourselves, naturally, we -- obviously, we would delever below that in 2021. And so what we would -- we delever into that range in 2021. And so shareholder-friendly actions are on the table, once we get in that range.
所以不,我們仍然認為 2.5 至 3.5 倍之間的槓桿是正確的。我們自然而然地看到自己,顯然,我們會在 2021 年將槓桿率降到低於這一水平。所以我們會在 2021 年深入研究這個範圍。因此,一旦我們達到這個範圍,有利於股東的行動就會擺在桌面上。
Anthony Francis Klarman - MD and Global Head of High Yield Research
Anthony Francis Klarman - MD and Global Head of High Yield Research
But we should assume that for 2020, you're sort of sticking to the core of kind of the operating business. And that as we think about other uses for the free cash flow, I guess your expectation is that cash would just sort of build to the balance sheet as you get towards that leverage target?
但我們應該假設,到 2020 年,你會堅持經營業務的核心。當我們考慮自由現金流的其他用途時,我想您的期望是,當您達到槓桿目標時,現金會在資產負債表中增加?
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Yes. As we see the world today, yes, that's our expectation.
是的。當我們看到今天的世界時,是的,這就是我們的期望。
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Hamed Khorsand with BWS Financial.
下一個問題來自 BWS Financial 的 Hamed Khorsand。
Vahid Khorsand;BWS Financial;Analyst
Vahid Khorsand;BWS Financial;Analyst
This is for Vahid for Hamed. Just a few questions. Have you been able to address your manufacturing needs for Certus equipment? And do you need more partners or just the ability to make more equipment?
這是給瓦希德和哈米德的。只是幾個問題。您是否能夠滿足您對 Certus 設備的製造需求?您需要更多的合作夥伴還是僅僅需要製造更多設備的能力?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes. So we have -- yes, so just to understand how our Certus product works. We build the core transceiver module, which kind of is at least for most terminals, though we will even license that technology, if desire to some, to make it themselves. We've made those, shipped many of them more out than are terminals in the market. Those then get turned into terminals by our terminal dams, which we've announced a number and have some more potentially coming. They then create the terminals, people like Cobham and Thales, in particular, are the primary ones in the maritime market today. And we've given some guidance in the past about sort of the additional terminals that they have made than even have been activated. So the channel seems to have a good supply of terminals right now to support the growth in 2020. They'll be augmented by, I think, we've discussed and Intellian is coming on board, a really strong Asian manufacturer. They should be delivering their product in the first half of this year. And I'm sure they'll also address, particularly, they have a fan base kind of cored in Asia, but really all over the world as well and that will add product as well.
是的。所以我們——是的,所以只是為了了解我們的 Certus 產品是如何工作的。我們構建了核心收發器模塊,至少適用於大多數終端,儘管如果某些人願意,我們甚至會授權該技術來自行製造。我們已經製造了這些,其中許多的出貨量比市場上的終端還要多。然後,我們的終點大壩將它們變成終點站,我們已經宣布了一些終點站的數量,並且可能還會有更多的終點站。然後他們創建碼頭,特別是像科巴姆和泰雷茲這樣的人,他們是當今海運市場的主要人物。我們過去已經提供了一些關於他們製造的附加終端的指導,甚至已經激活了。因此,該渠道目前似乎擁有良好的終端供應來支持 2020 年的增長。我認為,我們已經討論過,並且 Intellian 即將加入,這是一家非常強大的亞洲製造商,它們將得到增強。他們應該在今年上半年交付產品。我相信他們也會解決,特別是,他們有一個以亞洲為核心的粉絲群,但實際上也遍布世界各地,這也會增加產品。
In addition, we see some other even lower-cost terminals coming on the market in 2020 that provide different levels of service. We also see aviation terminals, which are under test right now that will hit more later in the year.
此外,我們還看到其他一些成本更低的終端將於 2020 年上市,提供不同級別的服務。我們還看到目前正在接受測試的航空航站樓將在今年晚些時候投入使用。
And there's some other sort of visibility to other things that are coming in the market as we license additional people to make terminals. So supply of terminals is good. The kind of the diversity of applications that they can support is growing and competitive nature seems healthy in terms of sort of the kinds and price points of the terminals that are out there. So we feel good about the supply of Certus terminals for the market.
當我們授權更多的人來製造終端時,市場上出現的其他東西也會有一些其他的可見性。因此終端供應良好。它們可以支持的應用程序的多樣性正在不斷增長,並且就現有終端的種類和價格點而言,競爭性質似乎是健康的。因此,我們對 Certus 終端的市場供應感到滿意。
Vahid Khorsand;BWS Financial;Analyst
Vahid Khorsand;BWS Financial;Analyst
And then 1 more question. With regards to IoT, is Garmin still your main source of subscriber growth? Or are you seeing any new customer trends develop?
然後還有 1 個問題。在物聯網方面,Garmin 仍然是您用戶增長的主要來源嗎?或者您是否看到任何新的客戶趨勢的發展?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Well, Garmin certainly is putting some big numbers up because being a consumer player and having such a broad -- first of all, global scope in terms of who they support, but also a growing product -- number of products that they're delivering to the market and expanding sort of the base of the applications that they're supporting. That's certainly, I think, going to continue to be a driver of just raw subscriber numbers out in the future. It's kind of hard to expect others will match them, though we are having discussions with others who certainly have the potential long term, of being able to add good numbers, too, that are also in sort of a broader segments.
好吧,Garmin 確實給出了一些大數字,因為作為消費者玩家,擁有如此廣泛的範圍——首先是全球範圍內的支持者,而且產品也在不斷增長——他們提供的產品數量推向市場並擴大他們所支持的應用程序的基礎。我認為,這肯定會繼續成為未來原始訂戶數量的驅動力。很難指望其他人能與他們匹敵,儘管我們正在與其他人進行討論,他們肯定有長期潛力,能夠增加良好的數字,同樣,這也是更廣泛的細分市場。
We are seeing some new consumer products coming online. Really pleased to see sort of others entering the market as well. There's really a -- more than a handful right now of really nice-looking products in different market segments, going from consumer to enterprise to government and others that are also addressing this personal communication space. Plus, we're seeing this mid- band technology that we're deploying this year. We're in trials with a number of -- beta trials, really with a number of our partners on new applications using higher-speed services, and we see that entering into the consumer and enterprise space, especially into 2021 and '22. And I think those will also add some interesting numbers as well. But yes, definitely, Garmin is definitely the winner in terms of subscriber growth, short-to-medium term.
我們看到一些新的消費產品上線。非常高興看到其他人也進入市場。現在,在不同的細分市場中,從消費者到企業,再到政府和其他人,確實有很多外觀非常漂亮的產品,這些產品也在解決這個個人通信領域的問題。另外,我們今年正在部署這種中頻技術。我們正在與許多合作夥伴一起進行一系列測試,使用更高速的服務來開發新應用程序,我們看到它進入了消費者和企業領域,特別是在 2021 年和 22 年。我認為這些也會增加一些有趣的數字。但毫無疑問,就中短期用戶增長而言,Garmin 絕對是贏家。
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Louie DiPalma with William Blair.
下一個問題來自路易·迪帕爾瑪和威廉·布萊爾。
Louie DiPalma - Analyst
Louie DiPalma - Analyst
Matt, Iridium shares are near their all-time high, and it seems as though you have a lot of new products in the pipeline, particularly in IoT. Meanwhile, your closest IoT competitor, ORBCOMM has seen its shares near their all-time low. At a high level, can you discuss the competitive dynamics in the IoT market from the various sources of competition, whether it's ORBCOMM, Cellular and even future LEO IoT services? And the differences in system architecture that has thus far allowed your team to prevail?
馬特,銥星股價已接近歷史最高點,而且似乎有很多新產品正在醞釀之中,特別是在物聯網領域。與此同時,您最接近的物聯網競爭對手 ORBCOMM 的股價已接近歷史最低點。您能否從高層次上討論物聯網市場中各種競爭來源的競爭動態,無論是 ORBCOMM、蜂窩網絡還是未來的 LEO 物聯網服務?迄今為止,系統架構的差異使您的團隊取得了勝利?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes. So we have -- our competitive position in the IoT space has only sort of improved as we develop more unique devices, made it easier to get into service, provided more competitive pricing plans and brought on more partners who put us into more applications and all that has been sort of an engine of growth, as I said, that has delivered consistently high-performing subscriber growth. And it all is due to the unique nature of our global, first of all, there is no -- no one has to have reservations about where the coverage is on any device, the latency is consistent everywhere in the world. It's just a very high performing, reliable application. So partners, I think, have been drawn to really our service versus others, over time. And really, in some ways, I think anybody new who really wants to go into market around sort of the applications we support are really being drawn to us. I've said in the past, I still agree, we've never lost a partner to any other satellite player. Once they come to us, they stay.
是的。因此,隨著我們開發更多獨特的設備、更容易投入使用、提供更具競爭力的定價計劃並吸引更多合作夥伴,讓我們進入更多應用程序和所有領域,我們在物聯網領域的競爭地位只會有所提高。正如我所說,這一直是增長的引擎,它帶來了持續高效的用戶增長。這一切都是由於我們全球的獨特性,首先,沒有人必須對任何設備上的覆蓋範圍有保留,世界各地的延遲都是一致的。它只是一個性能非常高、可靠的應用程序。因此,我認為,隨著時間的推移,與其他公司相比,合作夥伴已經真正被我們的服務所吸引。事實上,在某些方面,我認為任何真正想進入我們支持的應用程序市場的新人都會被我們所吸引。我過去說過,我仍然同意,我們從未因任何其他衛星公司而失去過合作夥伴。一旦他們來到我們這裡,他們就會留下來。
We have taken a lot of share from others who are in the market earlier. You mentioned 1, but there have been others as well, and we seem to be migrating their applications over to our network as well, especially with the new Iridium NEXT network that we built. Everyone sees the long-term future and potential of the -- for the capabilities we can provide versus anybody else. So when it comes to what I call 1:1 premium satellite IoT, I don't think we have a lot of competition compared to the past.
我們從較早進入市場的其他公司那裡搶走了很多份額。您提到了 1,但也有其他的,我們似乎也在將他們的應用程序遷移到我們的網絡,特別是我們構建的新 Iridium NEXT 網絡。每個人都看到了我們可以提供的與其他任何人相比的能力的長期未來和潛力。因此,當談到我所說的 1:1 優質衛星物聯網時,我認為與過去相比,我們沒有太多競爭。
And you're right, it is more about doing nothing would be a competitor or Cellular being good enough in the 10% of the world it works. But we're making it easier and easier for Cellular IoT customers to move over into satellite as well with things like Iridium CloudConnect and new devices that really are attractive to those who built their networks on Cellular. So it really feels like we have a strong engine of growth going well into the future. We continue to bring in new products, new devices, new partners. I don't really see anybody challenging us in the traditional MSS space in the way we have maybe 10, 15 years ago. And these new mega constellations, these new LEO bands, all are focused on a completely different segment of IoT. It's sort of a niche segment called Broadband IoT, where they deliver sort of a broadband node to a regional area and then distribute the signal to make it cost-effective to lots of devices in a very limited area. And that's an area that is a smaller part, I think, of the market. We serve it with Certus more than anything else. But really for the most part, I don't really see that as an area of -- that's just an area that's complementary to what we really provide as our core IoT space. So very different IoT. I've talked to all, by the way, the mega constellations. And I say when you say IoT, do you mean what I mean? And they all agree that what we're talking about is very, very different and complementary.
你是對的,更重要的是,什麼都不做就會成為競爭對手,或者 Cellular 在它所服務的世界 10% 的地區中足夠好。但我們正在讓蜂窩物聯網客戶越來越容易地轉向衛星,以及銥星雲連接和新設備等,這些設備對那些在蜂窩上構建網絡的人來說確實很有吸引力。因此,我們確實感覺擁有強大的增長引擎,可以很好地應對未來。我們不斷引進新產品、新設備、新合作夥伴。我真的沒有看到有人像 10、15 年前那樣在傳統 MSS 領域挑戰我們。這些新的巨型星座、這些新的 LEO 頻段都專注於完全不同的物聯網領域。這是一個稱為寬帶物聯網的利基市場,他們向區域提供某種寬帶節點,然後分發信號,使其對非常有限的區域中的大量設備具有成本效益。我認為,這個領域只佔市場的一小部分。我們與 Certus 一起提供的服務比其他任何服務都重要。但實際上在大多數情況下,我並不認為這是一個領域——這只是一個與我們真正提供的核心物聯網空間互補的領域。物聯網非常不同。順便說一句,我已經和所有的巨型星座交談過。我說當你說物聯網時,你的意思是我的意思嗎?他們都同意我們所談論的是非常非常不同且互補的。
Louie DiPalma - Analyst
Louie DiPalma - Analyst
Got you. And Tom, I think you provided an unofficial pro forma free cash flow guidance of $208 million. And that amount of free cash flow generation is fairly unique in this industry. I was also wondering, related to that, can you provide a little color in terms of the difference between that pro forma $208 million number and the change in net debt that's implied by your deleveraging forecast?
明白你了。湯姆,我認為您提供了 2.08 億美元的非正式自由現金流指導。這種自由現金流的產生量在這個行業中是相當獨特的。我還想知道,與此相關,您能否就預計 2.08 億美元的數字與您的去槓桿化預測所隱含的淨債務變化之間的差異提供一些信息?
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Well, so the pro forma for 2020 is pro forma for our new capital structure, which was implemented in February of this year. So we think that the kind of what's important here is, what's the run rate of cash flow, right? And so that's why we provide that pro forma statistic because we think that the growth rate which is more than double the rate of growth in EBITDA is unique. And that's why we highlight it.
那麼,2020 年的預計是我們今年 2 月實施的新資本結構的預計。所以我們認為這裡重要的是現金流的運行率是多少,對吧?這就是我們提供預計統計數據的原因,因為我們認為超過 EBITDA 增長率兩倍的增長率是獨一無二的。這就是我們強調它的原因。
And so, we have a detailed calculation, Louie, for you to kind of have that. It's on our web page. And we've footnoted every calculation there. And so rather than take the time here, I would just direct you to the website, and then we can have a follow-up as appropriate.
因此,我們有一個詳細的計算,路易,供您參考。它在我們的網頁上。我們對每一個計算都做了腳註。因此,我不會在這里花時間,而是直接引導您訪問該網站,然後我們可以酌情進行後續跟進。
Louie DiPalma - Analyst
Louie DiPalma - Analyst
Okay. And do you expect -- I know you said you expect to average $35 million for CapEx per year, I think for roughly the next 10 years. Do you expect to already hit that mark for 2020?
好的。你是否期望——我知道你說過你預計每年平均資本支出為 3500 萬美元,我認為在接下來的 10 年左右。您預計 2020 年會達到這一目標嗎?
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Yes. So $35 million is our guide for 2020. And as you'll see in the website, that's evident on the exhibit we posted to our website, there's a $35 million deduct in arriving at the $208 million.
是的。因此,我們 2020 年的目標是 3500 萬美元。正如您將在網站中看到的那樣,這在我們發佈到網站上的展覽中很明顯,在達到 2.08 億美元的基礎上扣除了 3500 萬美元。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And the next question comes from Chris Quilty with Quilty Analytics.
(操作員說明)下一個問題來自 Quilty Analytics 的 Chris Quilty。
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Congratulations on finally, finally, getting that GMDSS certification. Can you answer 2 questions? Number one, do you have any other terminal manufacturers besides Lars Thrane at this point? And I guess how large would all the Certus providers eventually be certified for GMDSS? And then second of all, maybe this is more qualitative. Can you give us a sense of how you think that's going to impact the market and competition going forward now that you finally have that in pocket?
恭喜您終於獲得 GMDSS 認證。你能回答2個問題嗎?第一,目前除了 Lars Thrane 之外還有其他終端製造商嗎?我猜想所有 Certus 提供商最終獲得 GMDSS 認證的規模有多大?其次,也許這更加定性。既然您終於有了這筆錢,您能否告訴我們您認為這將如何影響未來的市場和競爭?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes. So there, Lars Thrane, that terminal, which is a great terminal, by the way, is the first terminal, but there are others that have been -- that are under development, and we'd expect to see those coming later in the year or into '21. I'll let them announce them when they're available, but there will be multiple choices. And the Certus suppliers are also going to be certifying their terminals for GMDSS as well. Again, just to -- you're right, it was a long process to get there. Given full authorization is a big deal because we kind of broke a monopoly of 30-plus years. It's a -- I would say, too, I should tell you, our GMDSS service is truly going to be the best in just about every front coverage to start with, but really the fact that, that Lars Thrane terminal can do all services, including voice and data as well as all the information services, and it's a really attractive package, I think we're going to get equally great new terminals when they're available going forward.
是的。拉爾斯·瑟蘭(Lars Thrane),順便說一句,那個終端是一個很棒的終端,是第一個終端,但還有其他終端正在開發中,我們預計稍後會看到這些終端。年或進入'21。我會讓他們在可用時宣布它們,但會有多種選擇。Certus 供應商也將對其終端進行 GMDSS 認證。再說一次,你是對的,到達那裡是一個漫長的過程。獲得完全授權是一件大事,因為我們打破了30多年的壟斷。我也想說,我應該告訴你,我們的 GMDSS 服務確實在幾乎所有前端覆蓋方面都是最好的,但事實上,Lars Thrane 終端可以提供所有服務,包括語音和數據以及所有信息服務,這是一個非常有吸引力的套餐,我認為當新終端可用時我們將獲得同樣出色的新終端。
The most important aspect about it isn't the revenues necessarily that'll generate. Technically, GMDSS services are free, certainly in the early term. Though those terminals can generate revenue revenue-generating services, that Lars Thrane service can be used for ship more data and that sort of thing, which will generate revenues on top of it. But I think it's the most important thing is that the distribution chain not only has an alternative to offer, but they do not have to offer a mixed solution. They can offer a completely noncompetitive solution to what they offer. And they've obviously been looking for an Iridium solution to be able to offer their customers so that they don't have to mix it with their primary competitor on the VSAT market onto a new ship or a new service. So our goal isn't to replace all the existing GMDSS terminals out there, will probably be a lot more new devices going forward. Because I don't know there's a business case for necessarily changing out the GMDSS terminal. But certainly, if you're going to put a new system on a ship, I think we're going to be an extremely attractive offering, not just because it's lower cost and provides more services and works in places the other solution doesn't, but because it's really much more friendly from a competitive perspective.
最重要的方面不一定是產生的收入。從技術上講,GMDSS 服務是免費的,當然在早期也是如此。儘管這些終端可以產生創收服務,但 Lars Thrane 的服務可以用於傳送更多數據之類的東西,這將在此基礎上產生收入。但我認為最重要的是分銷鏈不僅可以提供替代方案,而且不必提供混合解決方案。他們可以提供完全沒有競爭力的解決方案。顯然,他們一直在尋找能夠為客戶提供的銥星解決方案,這樣他們就不必將其與 VSAT 市場上的主要競爭對手混合到新船舶或新服務上。因此,我們的目標不是更換所有現有的 GMDSS 終端,未來可能會推出更多新設備。因為我不知道是否存在必須更換 GMDSS 終端的業務案例。但當然,如果你要在船上安裝一個新系統,我認為我們將成為一個極具吸引力的產品,不僅僅是因為它成本更低、提供更多服務並且可以在其他解決方案無法做到的地方工作,但是因為從競爭的角度來看它確實友好得多。
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Got you. And on Aireon, obviously, you -- or Aireon tripped the recognition due to their rollout of that service with the FAA. But what is the next step and expected timing of the next step for Aireon in terms of brokering a broader, more global agreement with the FAA?
明白你了。顯然,在 Aireon 上,您或 Aireon 由於與 FAA 合作推出了該服務而獲得了認可。但就與 FAA 達成更廣泛、更全球性的協議而言,Aireon 的下一步是什麼?下一步的預期時間是什麼?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes. So they're starting now with the -- what I would call a small straightforward step to be able to serve the surveillance needs in the Caribbean, where they -- it's a fairly straightforward step for them to implement Aireon. And I think it will be a great confidence booster as they get comfortable. It's easy to integrate into their existing sort of back-office software systems that they use to control traffic. So it was the obvious first step. I mean the big growth is in the oceanic space, where the airlines really want them to deploy it, where there's a lot of value to be added. The software systems that they have that will ingest that data are being updated now. And I think that, that -- they'll be available to use later in the year in 2021. I think there's an awful lot of discussions right now at the FAA about their phase plan and exactly how fast do they go, and I think we'll believe that to Aireon and FAA to work that out. But I'm encouraged that I think that they see the benefits of space-based ADS-B.
是的。因此,他們現在開始——我稱之為一個簡單的小步驟,以便能夠滿足加勒比地區的監控需求,在那裡他們——對他們來說,實施 Aireon 是一個相當簡單的步驟。我認為當他們感到舒服時,這將是一個很大的信心增強器。很容易集成到他們用來控制流量的現有後台軟件系統中。所以這是顯而易見的第一步。我的意思是,巨大的增長是在海洋領域,航空公司真正希望他們在海洋領域部署它,那裡有很多價值可以增加。他們擁有的用於獲取這些數據的軟件系統現在正在更新。我認為,它們將在 2021 年晚些時候投入使用。我認為美國聯邦航空局現在就他們的階段計劃以及具體進展速度進行了大量討論,我認為我們會相信 Aireon 和美國聯邦航空局能夠解決這個問題。但令我感到鼓舞的是,我認為他們看到了天基 ADS-B 的好處。
I think they're seeing the value of the efficiency, but also the safety improvements it's had. There's been some really high profile, by the way, saves that have been underway in the last few months as the FAA and others have called Aireon to find out where downed aircraft are. I think you're going to see more stories about that. That's certainly just the visibility to a lot of areas that they've never had visibility to is really attractive to controllers, to pilots, to airlines, to everybody who is involved in the aviation system.
我認為他們看到了效率的價值,也看到了它所帶來的安全改進。順便說一句,過去幾個月裡,美國聯邦航空局和其他機構已致電 Aireon 尋找被擊落飛機的位置,因此發生了一些非常引人注目的救援行動。我想你會看到更多關於這方面的故事。當然,對於管制員、飛行員、航空公司以及參與航空系統的每個人來說,他們從未見過的許多領域的可見性確實很有吸引力。
So our hope is it moves faster. Obviously, the faster they move, the better it is for Aireon, the better it is for us as traveling public.
所以我們希望它進展得更快。顯然,他們移動得越快,對 Aireon 來說就越好,對我們作為公眾出行者來說也越好。
I think there's a lot of good reasons for that. Obviously, financially, Aireon -- not just the FAA, but they have a pretty long pipeline. And I think you're going to see a lot of new customers come onboard in 2020 and 2021 as they adopt it beyond the existing 35 countries or so that have adopted it initially. And I think that's going to continue to drive revenues. It will allow them to refinance their debt. That will allow them to pay their hosting and dividends and all kinds of the other financial benefits that happen out, as Tom said, when they happen in the next few years.
我認為這有很多充分的理由。顯然,在財務上,Aireon——不僅僅是美國聯邦航空局,而且他們有相當長的管道。我認為您將在 2020 年和 2021 年看到許多新客戶加入,因為他們在最初採用它的現有 35 個國家/地區之外也採用了它。我認為這將繼續推動收入。這將使他們能夠為債務再融資。正如湯姆所說,這將使他們能夠支付託管和股息以及未來幾年發生的各種其他經濟利益。
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
I mean it's really just -- the model is just add customers, of which the FAA is a big one. And the more they add, then the sequencing is hosting first, then buyback of our -- certain of our interest for $120 million, then dividends, and we've laid that out in our Investor Day, and that's how we saw it this time last year. It's how we continue to see it. They just continue to prosecute and add new customers.
我的意思是,這真的只是——該模型只是增加客戶,其中美國聯邦航空局是一個大客戶。他們添加的越多,那麼順序就是首先託管,然後以 1.2 億美元回購我們的某些權益,然後是股息,我們已經在投資者日中列出了這一點,這就是我們這次的看法去年。這就是我們繼續看到的方式。他們只是繼續起訴並增加新客戶。
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Well, and maybe let me ask this in a more direct way. Are there -- the issues that are throttling a final agreement, are they technical in nature or is it budget related? They haven't yet been allocated the money they need to sign a broader agreement.
好吧,也許讓我以更直接的方式問這個問題。是否存在阻礙最終協議達成的問題,這些問題本質上是技術問題還是與預算相關?他們尚未獲得簽署更廣泛協議所需的資金。
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
I don't think I can characterize as one thing. I mean it's -- obviously, the other countries and people have moved along faster than the U.S. has in terms of deploying space-based ADS-B. I'm just happy they're moving forward right now and starting to see some progress.
我不認為我可以將其描述為一件事。我的意思是,顯然,其他國家和人民在部署天基 ADS-B 方面的進展比美國更快。我很高興他們現在正在前進並開始看到一些進展。
For a long time there, they had been acting as if maybe it wasn't even part of the solution or something that they may only consider for long into the future. Now they seem to have -- be moving on a phased introduction plan that sort of is going to move forward. I think you know agencies with the size and scope and the traffic that they have to support, have to move at certain rates for lots of different reasons. And I'm sure that Aireon and they will move through that. I just like the momentum I'm seeing right now.
很長一段時間以來,他們一直表現得好像這甚至不是解決方案的一部分,或者是他們可能只會在未來很長一段時間內考慮的事情。現在他們似乎正在實施一項分階段的推出計劃,該計劃將會向前推進。我想您知道,由於許多不同的原因,具有規模、範圍和流量的機構必須以一定的速度移動。我相信 Aireon 和他們會克服這個困難。我只是喜歡現在看到的勢頭。
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Understand. Shifting gears with Certus and your government customer. Are you engaged currently in negotiations to provide that service? And any sort of update on timing of when there might be a contract in place?
理解。與 Certus 和您的政府客戶合作。您目前是否正在進行提供該服務的談判?關於何時簽訂合同的時間有任何更新嗎?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes. So actually, we have contracted already to COMSAT with a take-or-pay contract that -- and they are the primary supplier of L-band services to the U.S. government. And so they have already kind of committed to a revenue stream for us from the U.S. government.
是的。事實上,我們已經與 COMSAT 簽訂了照付不議合同,他們是美國政府 L 波段服務的主要供應商。因此,他們已經承諾從美國政府那里為我們提供收入來源。
In addition, the U.S. government has already committed and is spending money and working through the process of implementing the Certus equipment at the government gateway.
此外,美國政府已經承諾並正在花錢並致力於在政府網關實施 Certus 設備。
So they have already -- spending money and working on implementing a secure Iridium Certus capability. That's moving along well, and it takes longer than I always think it will, but it should be available, I think probably out in 2021.
因此,他們已經投入資金並致力於實施安全的 Iridium Certus 功能。進展順利,需要的時間比我想像的要長,但應該會在 2021 年推出。
And in the meantime, they have procured services via the commercial gateway. So particularly on the land-based side, already have a number of terminals activated and are liking what they're seeing from the service and are having discussions around a number of areas from Aviation, Maritime, Inland to deploy it. So don't think you're going to see a direct contract per se from us, it will be more through their procurement through COMSAT. So the channel is all set up, the revenues will flow. They'll just accelerate more when they have a secure capability is implemented fully at the -- at their gateway and can deploy it more rapidly.
與此同時,他們通過商業網關採購服務。因此,特別是在陸基方面,已經激活了許多終端,並且喜歡他們從該服務中看到的內容,並且正在圍繞航空、海事、內陸等多個領域進行討論以部署該服務。因此,不要以為您會從我們這裡看到直接合同,更多的是通過 COMSAT 進行採購。所以渠道已經建立起來,收入就會流動。當他們在網關上完全實施安全功能並且可以更快地部署它時,他們只會加速更多。
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
So Tom, where would COMSAT -- I mean to the degree they were successful with the government, where would those revenues flow? Would they still come through your government reported line? Or would that show up as commercial?
那麼湯姆,COMSAT 會在哪裡——我的意思是,就他們在政府方面取得的成功而言,這些收入會流向哪裡?他們還會通過你們政府報告的線路嗎?或者這會顯示為商業廣告嗎?
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
No, we see -- we -- and there's not much of them now, but we see that being reported in our Broadband segment that we -- when we introduced that broadband target, we had -- if you remember the slide, there's a slice for government on that slide. So we see that as part of our broadband target. So it would not be on the government line. That's the government line. We see that as the contract with DISA.
不,我們看到 - 我們 - 現在沒有太多,但我們看到在我們的寬帶部門報導說,我們 - 當我們引入寬帶目標時,我們 - 如果你還記得這張幻燈片,有一個該幻燈片上為政府切片。因此,我們將其視為我們寬帶目標的一部分。所以它不會在政府的路線上。這就是政府的底線。我們將其視為與迪砂簽訂的合同。
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Yes. We primarily, the narrowband existing fixed price services, and then we'll move sort of a government line into the Broadband section for the broadband area.
是的。我們主要是窄帶現有的固定價格服務,然後我們將把某種政府線路移至寬帶區域的寬帶部分。
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Okay. And final question. Commercial IoT net adds were sort of -- were flat, year-over-year, 35,000. I would have expected that might have been up, given you've got more products and Garmin's been at this longer. Was there anything about the fourth quarter that you saw as onetime in nature, either that benefited last year or might have created a headwind for you this year on the commercial side?
好的。最後一個問題。商業物聯網淨增加量與去年同期持平,為 35,000 個。我本來預計這個數字可能會上升,因為你有更多的產品,而且 Garmin 已經在這方面投入了更長的時間。您認為第四季度有什麼是一次性的嗎?要么去年受益,要么今年可能在商業方面給您帶來阻力?
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
No, there was no headwinds. There's some puts and takes. I remember there was a cleanup from one partner from some kind of nonproductive customers. And they weren't -- they didn't have much ARPU associated with them, and there were -- I don't remember how many there were, but it was a significant kind of number that was sort of unexpected. That happens occasionally, some people seem to do that. And yet, we don't really know when it's going to happen. So it depends on what quarter it hits. I wouldn't read anything into the nature of it being flat. That was sort of -- it had been running ahead for quite a while from expectations. And then I think there was a bit of cleanup in the fourth quarter from some people. But really, the ARPU stayed strong, the momentum stayed strong. Nothing really happened around any business changes or anything. I don't think it had anything to do with economics or anything else right now. I don't see any issues with our IoT.
不,沒有逆風。有一些投入和採取。我記得一位合作夥伴對某種非生產性客戶進行了清理。他們沒有——他們沒有太多與之相關的 ARPU,而且——我不記得有多少,但這是一個相當大的數字,有點出乎意料。這種情況偶爾會發生,有些人似乎會這樣做。然而,我們真的不知道它什麼時候會發生。所以這取決於它擊中哪個季度。我不會對它平坦的本質進行任何解讀。可以說,它已經超出預期相當長一段時間了。然後我認為有些人在第四季度進行了一些清理工作。但實際上,ARPU 仍然強勁,勢頭依然強勁。任何業務變化或任何事情都沒有真正發生。我認為它現在與經濟或其他任何事情都沒有任何關係。我沒有發現我們的物聯網有任何問題。
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
Thomas Fitzpatrick;Chief Administrative Officer, CFO
No. As we said in our prepared remarks, we have visibility into the personal communication partners and feel real good about our prospects in 2020. So we don't -- we're not fussed about the fourth quarter net adds, Chris.
不。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說,我們對個人溝通合作夥伴有深入的了解,並對 2020 年的前景感到非常樂觀。所以我們不會——克里斯,我們對第四季度的淨增長並不擔心。
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Christopher David Quilty - Research Analyst
Perfect. Congrats and good luck on 2020.
完美的。恭喜你,祝你 2020 年好運。
Operator
Operator
And this concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing comments.
問答環節到此結束。我現在想將會議轉回管理層以徵求結束意見。
Matthew Desch;CEO
Matthew Desch;CEO
Well, obviously, this was a good year. We're off and running. We're going to see you very soon in the first quarter, but there's also a number of conferences I think we'll probably see some of you at here. The big satellite show is in a couple of weeks here in Washington, and I know some of you will be here then. There'll be a lot to talk about, I think in 2020. We look forward to seeing all of you each quarter going forward.
嗯,顯然,這是美好的一年。我們出發並奔跑。我們很快就會在第一季度見到你們,但我想還有很多會議,我們可能會在這裡見到你們中的一些人。大型衛星秀幾週後將在華盛頓舉行,我知道你們中的一些人屆時會來到這裡。我認為 2020 年將會有很多話題可以討論。我們期待著每個季度與大家見面。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, you may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示,您現在可以斷開線路了。