直覺電腦 (INTU) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Abby, and I will be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Intuit's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

午安.我是 Abby，將擔任本次會議的主持人。現在，我謹代表 Intuit 公司歡迎各位參加 2023 財年第三季業績電話會議。 （操作說明）

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Kim Watkins, Intuit's Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Watkins?

接下來，我將把電話交給Intuit公司投資者關係副總裁金‧沃特金斯女士。沃特金斯女士？

Thanks, Abby. Good afternoon, and welcome to Intuit's Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Conference Call. I'm here with Intuit's CEO, Sasan Goodarzi; and Michelle Clatterbuck, our CFO.

謝謝，艾比。下午好，歡迎參加 Intuit 2023 財年第三季業績電話會議。今天與我一起參加會議的還有 Intuit 的執行長 Sasan Goodarzi 和財務長 Michelle Clatterbuck。

Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that our remarks will include forward-looking statements. There are a number of factors that could cause Intuit's results to differ materially from our expectations. You can learn more about these risks in our press release we issued earlier this afternoon, our Form 10-K for fiscal 2022 and our other SEC filings. All of those documents are available on the Investor Relations page of Intuit's website at intuit.com. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

在正式開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們的發言將包含前瞻性陳述。許多因素可能導致Intuit的實際表現與預期有重大差異。您可以在我們今天下午早些時候發布的新聞稿、2022財年10-K表格以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的其他文件中了解更多關於這些風險的資訊。所有這些文件都可以在Intuit官網intuit.com的投資者關係頁面找到。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Some of the numbers in these remarks are presented on a non-GAAP basis. We reconciled the comparable GAAP and non-GAAP numbers in today's press release. Unless otherwise noted, all growth rates refer to the current period versus the comparable prior year period, and the business metrics and associated growth rates refer to worldwide business metrics. A copy of our prepared remarks and supplemental financial information will be available on our website after this call ends.

本次發言中的部分資料以非公認會計準則（非GAAP）列示。我們已在今天的新聞稿中對相應的GAAP和非GAAP資料進行了核對。除非另有說明，否則所有成長率均指本期與去年同期相比的成長率，業務指標及其相關成長率均指全球業務指標。本次電話會議結束後，您可在我們的網站上取得我們準備的發言稿和補充財務資訊。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sasan.

接下來，我將把電話交給薩桑。

Great. Thank you, Kim, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Third quarter revenue grew 7%, lower than our expectations, reflecting a unique tax season, while we exceeded operating income and earnings per share guidance. We continue to see strong growth in the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, which grew 21% in the quarter.

太好了。謝謝Kim，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨。第三季營收成長7%，低於預期，這反映了今年特殊的報稅季狀況；但我們的營業收入和每股盈餘都超出預期。小型企業和個體經營者業務持續保持強勁成長，本季成長21%。

Our overall performance this year demonstrates the strength of our platform and portfolio, including our ability to maintain earnings power in uncertain times, while investing in the most important areas to drive long-term, durable growth. We are raising our total company fiscal year revenue, operating income, earnings per share guidance. I'm very proud of our team as we now expect revenue and operating income to grow double digits and margins to expand even more than previously guided.

今年的整體業績展現了我們平台和產品組合的實力，包括我們在不確定時期保持獲利能力的能力，同時投資於推動長期永續成長的關鍵領域。我們上調了公司本財年的總營收、營業利潤和每股盈餘預期。我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪，因為我們現在預計營收和營業利潤將實現兩位數成長，利潤率也將高於先前預期。

Let's turn to tax. While this was a unique tax season, we're making good progress transforming the assisted segment with TurboTax Live. This year, we expect overall IRS returns to decline 2% through July 31, below our original expectations for total returns to grow 1%, which was more in line with historical trends. We also expect the DIY category share of total IRS returns to decline nearly 3/4 of a point of a point, also below our expectations. We believe the IRS and DIY category declines are driven by those who filed in order to receive pandemic-era stimulus and tax credit during the past several years but did not file taxes this season.

讓我們來談談稅務。雖然今年的報稅季情況特殊，但我們透過TurboTax Live在輔助報稅領域取得了顯著進展。今年，我們預計截至7月31日，美國國稅局（IRS）的整體報稅量將下降2%，低於我們最初預期的1%的成長，後者更符合歷史趨勢。我們也預計，自行報稅（DIY）在IRS報稅總量中所佔的份額將下降近0.75個百分點，同樣低於我們的預期。我們認為，IRS報稅和DIY報稅的份額下降主要是由於過去幾年中，有些人為了獲得疫情期間的刺激經濟措施和稅收抵免而報稅，但今年卻沒有報稅。

As a reminder, every point of IRS returns growth equals about 1 point of TurboTax revenue growth, and every point of DIY category share growth equals about 2.5 points of TurboTax revenue growth. The expected decline in total IRS returns and DIY category share equates to approximately $200 million of negative impact to revenue for TurboTax versus our original expectations. We expect our share of total IRS returns to be down approximately 80 basis points this fiscal year, primarily reflecting pandemic-era stimulus filers who did not file taxes this season.

再次提醒，IRS申報量每增加1個百分點，TurboTax的收入大約增加1個百分點；DIY報稅份額每增長1個百分點，TurboTax的收入大約增長2.5個百分點。預計IRS申報總量和DIY報稅份額的下降將導致TurboTax的收入將比我們最初的預期減少約2億美元。我們預計本財年TurboTax在IRS申報總量中的份額將下降約80個基點，這主要反映了疫情期間獲得經濟刺激計劃補貼的納稅人本季未提交報稅申請的情況。

Each tax season has been unique since the pandemic began 4 years ago, although average annual trends over this period are far more in line with longer-term trends. Over this 4-year period, we expect total IRS returns to be up approximately 1%, the DIY category share of total returns to be up 1/4 of a point, and our share of total returns to be up approximately 20 basis points and average revenue per return to be up 9 points. These trends exclude users of the TurboTax Free File offering in prior year periods.

自四年前疫情爆發以來，每個報稅季都各有不同，但這段期間的平均年度趨勢與長期趨勢更為一致。在這四年期間，我們預計美國國稅局 (IRS) 的報稅總量將增長約 1%，自助報稅 (DIY) 的報稅份額將增長 0.25 個百分點，我們的報稅份額將增長約 20 個基點，平均每份報稅單的收入將增長 9 個百分點。這些趨勢不包括往年使用 TurboTax 免費報稅服務的用戶。

Our strategy to transform the assisted category with TurboTax Live is working, given the growth we've experienced in an environment where IRS returns are declining. We expect TurboTax Live customers to grow 13% this year, with TurboTax Live revenue up 19% and total average revenue per return to grow 12%. While TurboTax Live has driven strong growth over the last 6 tax seasons, we still have an immense opportunity to penetrate and transform the assisted tax segment at an accelerated rate. This remains our top priority as we prepare for next year.

鑑於我們在國稅局報稅量下降的環境下所取得的增長，我們利用TurboTax Live革新輔助報稅領域的策略正在奏效。我們預計今年TurboTax Live的用戶數量將成長13%，營收將成長19%，平均每份報稅單的總營收將成長12%。儘管TurboTax Live在過去六個報稅季中實現了強勁增長，但我們仍然擁有巨大的機會，可以更快地滲透並革新輔助報稅領域。這仍然是我們為明年做準備時的首要任務。

Turning to Small Business. While we're not immune to the macro environment, our platform is resilient. Total online payment volume growth moderated 5 points from Q2, growing 20%. Despite this, the shift to digitization and the power of our Small Business platform resonate with customers as they look to grow their business and improve cash flow.

轉向小企業。雖然我們無法完全免受宏觀環境的影響，但我們的平台具有很強的韌性。線上支付總額的成長較第二季放緩了5個百分點，仍為20%。儘管如此，數位轉型以及我們強大的小型企業平台仍然能夠引起客戶的共鳴，幫助他們拓展業務並改善現金流。

We continue to see strength in the areas that have the greatest impact, including growth of our online mid-market customers contributing to strong subscription revenue and higher ARPC. In Q3, growth in both the number of companies running online payroll and the number of employees paid on our platform remained strong. Our Small Business platform, including QuickBooks and Mailchimp, remain critical to our customers' success.

我們持續在影響最大的領域保持強勁成長，包括中階市場線上客戶的成長，這為訂閱收入和更高的平均每用戶收入 (ARPC) 做出了貢獻。第三季度，使用線上薪資管理的公司數量和透過我們平台領取薪資的員工人數均保持強勁成長。我們的小型企業平台（包括 QuickBooks 和 Mailchimp）對客戶的成​​功仍然至關重要。

Let me now step back and talk about our company game plan to win. Four years ago, we declared our strategy to become the global AI-driven expert platform and 5 Big Bets as the primary areas of focus to drive durable growth. We invested heavily in our data and AI capabilities to deliver accelerated innovation. Today, we have over 100 million customers on our platform and use 400,000 customer and financial attributes per small business and 55,000 tax and financial attributes per consumer to power 58 billion machine learning predictions per day.

現在，我想回顧一下我們公司的勝利策略。四年前，我們宣布了我們的策略目標：成為全球領先的AI驅動型專家平台，並將五大重點領域作為推動永續成長的主要方向。我們大力投資數據和AI能力建設，以加速創新。如今，我們的平台擁有超過1億用戶，每個小型企業使用40萬個客戶和財務屬性，每個消費者使用5.5萬個稅務和財務屬性，每天進行580億次機器學習預測。

The acquisitions of Credit Karma and Mailchimp each contributed a rich and additive data set, which helped deliver a 360-degree view of our customers. The scale of our data is an important competitive advantage and building block for our existing and future innovations with AI. We are accelerating reimagining our customer experiences with generative AI capabilities, which we believe will be the driver of our long-term growth. Our platform capabilities are key to continued acceleration across all of our 5 Big Bets.

收購 Credit Karma 和 Mailchimp 都為我們帶來了豐富且極具價值的資料集，幫助我們建立了客戶的 360 度全方位視圖。我們龐大的資料規模是我們重要的競爭優勢，也是我們現有及未來人工智慧創新發展的基石。我們正加速利用生成式人工智慧技術重塑客戶體驗，相信這將成為我們長期成長的驅動力。我們的平台能力是我們在五大重點領域持續加速發展的關鍵。

I'd like to highlight some examples of recent progress across these Big Bets. As a reminder, our Big Bets are: revolutionize speed to benefit, connect people to experts, unlock smart money decisions, be the center of small business growth and disrupt the small business mid-market.

我想重點介紹一下我們近期在這些「重大舉措」方面取得的一些進展。再次提醒大家，我們的「重大舉措」包括：革新效益提升速度、連接用戶與專家、助力用戶做出明智的投資決策、成為小型企業發展的中心以及顛覆小型企業中端市場。

Our first Big Bet is to revolutionize speed to benefit. This data and technology bet is foundational to everything that we do. We began investing in generative AI 2 years ago to accelerate our ability to fuel the success of consumers and small businesses. We've implemented generative AI in Mailchimp, powering the e-mail content generator, enabling customers to create faster e-mail campaigns based on industry, marketing intent and brand voice.

我們首要的重大舉措是革新速度，進而提升效益。這項數據和技術方面的投入是我們一切工作的基石。兩年前，我們開始投資生成式人工智慧，旨在加速我們協助消費者和小型企業成功的能力。我們已在 Mailchimp 中應用了生成式人工智慧，為電子郵件內容產生器提供支持，使客戶能夠根據行業、行銷意圖和品牌調性更快地創建電子郵件行銷活動。

We deployed large language models, which recognize, summarize and generate text in our virtual expert platform to automatically summarize calls, reduce call times by hundreds of thousands of hours per year and reduce work for experts while improving efficiency. Our strategic investment in data and AI over the last 4 years positions us to lead through this technological shift, and we look forward to sharing more in the coming months.

我們在虛擬專家平台部署了大型語言模型，這些模型能夠識別、概括和生成文本，從而自動總結通話內容，每年可減少數十萬小時的通話時間，減輕專家的工作量，並提高效率。過去四年，我們在數據和人工智慧領域的策略投資使我們能夠引領這場技術變革，我們期待在未來幾個月分享更多資訊。

With our third Big Bet, our vision is for Credit Karma to become a comprehensive, self-driving financial platform that propels our members forward wherever they are on their financial journey. We are focused on growing Credit Karma Money, increasing member confidence to access financial products with Karma Guarantee, building out a richer experience for Prime members and becoming the financial platform of choice for consumers, with the seamless integration of Credit Karma and TurboTax.

透過我們的第三筆重大投資，我們的願景是讓 Credit Karma 成為一個全面、自主的金融平台，助力會員無論處於財務旅程的哪個階段都能穩步前進。我們致力於發展 Credit Karma Money，透過 Karma Guarantee 提升會員獲得金融產品的信心，為 Prime 會員打造更豐富的體驗，並透過 Credit Karma 與 TurboTax 的無縫整合，成為消費者首選的金融平台。

We're innovating across all verticals and continue to have confidence in our long-term revenue growth expectations of 20% to 25% despite near-term headwinds. I'll share a few examples. This season, we further streamlined the TurboTax filing experience into the Credit Karma app, and the number of customers using the experience to file their taxes was over 5x higher last year.

我們正積極推動各領域的創新，儘管短期內面臨一些不利因素，但我們仍對20%至25%的長期營收成長預期充滿信心。我舉幾個例子。本季度，我們進一步簡化了TurboTax的報稅流程，將其整合到Credit Karma應用程式中，使用該應用程式報稅的客戶數量比去年同期增加了5倍以上。

With Credit Karma Money, we're innovating to help members get faster access to cash and make financial progress. This year, we saw over 45% growth in the number of TurboTax online customers who received their Refund Advance in a Credit Karma Money account. This integration allowed approved members to get money in their hands in as little as 1 minute after the IRS accepted their return and drove increased debit card purchase activity, contributing to more than 100% increase in Credit Karma Money revenue during the quarter.

透過 Credit Karma Money，我們正在進行創新，幫助會員更快獲得現金，實現財務目標。今年，透過 TurboTax 在線報稅並在 Credit Karma Money 帳戶中收到預支退稅款的用戶數量增長超過 45%。這項整合使得獲得批准的會員在國稅局 (IRS) 接受其報稅表後最快可在 1 分鐘內收到款項，並促進了借記卡消費活動的增長，最終使 Credit Karma Money 在本季度的收入增長超過 100%。

Members who use this offering show higher engagement on Credit Karma, which creates additional monetization opportunities over time. And with the Mint team now part of Credit Karma, we're building a new experience for members with prime credit scores, where Credit Karma is underpenetrated today. During the quarter, we began rolling out Net Worth, which helps Prime members better understand their wealth.

使用這項服務的會員在 Credit Karma 上的參與度更高，這會隨著時間的推移帶來更多獲利機會。隨著 Mint 團隊加入 Credit Karma，我們正在為信用評分優異的會員打造全新體驗，而 Credit Karma 目前在該領域的滲透率仍然較低。本季度，我們開始推出「淨值」功能，幫助優質會員更了解他們的財富狀況。

Our fourth Big Bet is to become the center of small business growth by helping our customers get new customers, get paid fast, manage capital and pay employees with confidence in an omnichannel world. In Payroll, our U.S. QBO payroll customers grew double digits this quarter and the mix of online customers choosing our high-end offerings increased by over 1 point, driving higher ARPC. And in Payments, we continue to innovate to drive digitization from creating an estimate, to invoicing a customer, to getting paid.

我們的第四項重大舉措是成為小型企業成長的中心，幫助客戶在全通路環境下獲取新客戶、快速收款、管理資金並自信地支付員工薪酬。在薪資管理方面，我們美國QBO薪資管理客戶本季實現了兩位數成長，選擇我們高階產品的線上客戶比例也提升了1個百分點以上，從而提高了平均每次點擊費用 (ARPC)。在支付領域，我們持續創新，推動從創建報價、向客戶開立發票到收款的整個流程數位轉型。

Today, easier discovery, auto-enabled payments, instant deposits and get paid upfront are all helping drive adoption of our payments offering, leading to 20% total online payments volume growth this quarter. We're making significant progress digitizing B2B payments to accelerate and automate transactions between small businesses and ultimately improve their cash flow.

如今，更便利的發現方式、自動付款功能、即時到帳和預收款項等優勢，都在推動我們支付產品的普及，使得本季線上支付總額增加了20%。我們在B2B支付數位化方面取得了顯著進展，旨在加速和自動化小型企業之間的交易，並最終改善他們的現金流。

We see a tremendous opportunity as 70% of B2B transactions are still completed with checks. And following our launch of the QuickBooks Business Network to millions of our QBO customers in January, we're piloting our own native bill pay solution and launched the initial beta of this functionality in QuickBooks earlier this month.

我們看到了巨大的機遇，因為目前仍有70%的B2B交易是透過支票完成的。繼1月針對數百萬QBO用戶推出QuickBooks Business Network之後，我們正在試行自主研發的帳單支付解決方案，並於本月初在QuickBooks中推出了該功能的初始測試版。

Turning to Mailchimp. We're well on our way to becoming the source of truth for our customers to help them grow and run their business. We have 3 acceleration priorities with Mailchimp: first, delivering on our vision of an end-to-end customer growth platform; second, disrupting the mid-market by developing a full marketing automation, CRM and e-commerce suite; and third, accelerating global growth with holistic go-to-market approach.

我們正在與 Mailchimp 合作。我們正朝著成為客戶權威資訊來源的目標穩步邁進，協助他們發展和經營業務。我們與 Mailchimp 的合作有三個加速發展重點：首先，實現我們打造端到端客戶成長平台的願景；其次，透過開發完整的行銷自動化、客戶關係管理 (CRM) 和電子商務套件，顛覆中端市場；第三，透過整體市場推廣策略加速全球成長。

This quarter, we made great progress against these priorities. We're continuing to see better paid conversion, improving retention versus last quarter and stronger paid customer growth. This, along with higher revenue per customer, drove several point acceleration in revenue growth versus last quarter. Let me share some details around our progress.

本季度，我們在這些重點領域取得了顯著進展。付費轉換率持續提升，用戶留存率較上季提高，付費用戶成長也更加強勁。這些因素，加上每位用戶收入的提高，共同推動了營收成長較上季加速數個百分點。以下我將詳細介紹我們的進展。

To help introduce new customers to Mailchimp and drive customer growth over time, we introduced 3 trials similar to what we offer in QBO. In early testing, this is already driving higher-pace conversion and a mix shift into our higher-end offerings. To drive stronger retention of mid-market customers, we continue to leverage our virtual expert platform to offer assisted onboarding, with the goal of guiding these customers to more advanced features and increasing awareness and usage.

為了幫助新客戶了解 Mailchimp 並推動客戶長期成長，我們推出了三項類似 QuickBooks Online (QBO) 的試用服務。早期測試表明，這些服務已顯著提升了轉換率，並促使用戶更多地使用我們的高端產品。為了提高中階市場客戶的留存率，我們將繼續利用虛擬專家平台提供輔助註冊服務，旨在引導這些客戶使用更高階的功能，並提升他們對 Mailchimp 的認知度和使用率。

This quarter, we saw more than a 7-point increase in high-value customers going through this onboarding process versus last quarter, which we expect to help drive stronger retention over time. To drive accelerated global growth and execute our refreshed international strategy, we're translating the product into multiple languages. Early results indicate this translation work is driving increased activation and ultimately can drive revenue growth.

本季度，與上季相比，完成新用戶註冊流程的高價值客戶數量增加了7個百分點以上，我們預計這將有助於長期提升客戶留存率。為了加速全球成長並執行我們更新的國際策略，我們正在將產品翻譯成多種語言。初步結果表明，翻譯工作正在提升用戶激活率，並最終推動收入成長。

And our fifth Big Bet is to disrupt the small business mid-market, representing a TAM of 1.7 million customers, of which 700,000 are already in our franchise today. Online mid-market customer growth remains strong, and we're driving ARPC expansion as we serve these mid-market customers across our full ecosystem of services.

我們的第五項重大舉措是顛覆中小企業中端市場，該市場擁有170萬潛在客戶，其中70萬客戶目前已加入我們的特許經營體系。線上中階市場客戶成長依然強勁，我們正透過全方位的服務生態系統為這些中階市場客戶提供服務，從而推動平均每千次展示收入（ARPC）的擴張。

Wrapping up, with our durable AI-driven expert platform strategy, we're innovating at a high velocity, using the power of our platform, modern technology capabilities, data sets and artificial intelligence to deliver new offerings at scale. This is helping us put more money in our customers' pockets, saving them time and ensuring complete confidence in every financial decision they make. We're well positioned to power prosperity for the people and communities that we serve as we enter this next technological shift.

綜上所述，憑藉我們持久的AI驅動型專家平台策略，我們正高速創新，利用平台優勢、現代技術能力、資料集和人工智慧，大規模地提供新產品和服務。這有助於我們為客戶節省更多資金，節省時間，並確保他們對每項財務決策充滿信心。我們已做好充分準備，迎接下一輪技術變革，協助我們所服務的人民和社區繁榮發展。

Now let me hand it over to Michelle.

現在讓我把麥克風交給米歇爾。

Thanks, Sasan. For the third quarter of fiscal 2023, we delivered revenue of $6 billion, GAAP operating income of $2.8 billion versus $2.4 billion last year, non-GAAP operating income of $3.4 billion versus $2.9 billion last year, GAAP diluted earnings per share of $7.38 versus $6.28 a year ago and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $8.92 versus $7.65 last year.

謝謝，薩桑。 2023財年第三季度，我們實現營收60億美元，GAAP營業收入28億美元（去年同期為24億美元），非GAAP營業收入34億美元（去年同期為29億美元），GAAP攤薄後每股收益7.38美元（去年同期為6.28美元），非GAAP攤薄後每股收益7.38美元（去年同期為6.28美元），非GAAP攤薄後每股收益。

Turning to the business segments. Consumer Group revenue of $3.3 billion grew 3% in Q3. There are 4 primary drivers of our Consumer business. This data reflects our expectations through July 31, 2023, versus the prior year through July 31, 2022. The first is the total number of returns filed with the IRS. We expect total returns to decline 2% this year. This is below our original expectations of up 1% as overall industry growth continues to reflect the multiyear impact from the pandemic.

接下來是業務板塊。消費品集團第三季​​營收達33億美元，成長3%。我們的消費品業務主要受四大因素驅動。這些數據反映了我們截至2023年7月31日的預期，並與去年同期（截至2022年7月31日）的數據進行了比較。首先是向美國國稅局提交的報稅表總數。我們預計今年報稅表總數將下降2%。這低於我們最初預期的成長1%，因為整個產業的成長仍在持續受到疫情多年影響。

The second is the percentage of those returns filed using do-it-yourself software. We expect the DIY category of total IRS returns to be down nearly 3/4 of a point by the end of the fiscal year, below our original expectations.

第二點是使用自助軟體提交的報稅表所佔的百分比。我們預計，到本財年末，透過自助方式提交的報稅表占美國國稅局總報稅表的比例將下降近0.75個百分點，低於我們最初的預期。

The third is our share. We expect our share of total IRS returns to decline by approximately 80 basis points this fiscal year, primarily reflecting pandemic-era stimulus filers who did not file this season. As a result of these same industry dynamics, we expect our retention to decline this year.

第三點是我們的份額。我們預計本財年我們在國稅局申報總量中所佔份額將下降約80個基點，這主要反映了疫情期間獲得刺激性報稅資格的納稅人本季未提交申報表的情況。受同樣的產業動態影響，我們預期今年的客戶留存率也會下降。

The fourth is average revenue per return, which we expect to increase 12% this year, as we expect TurboTax Live customers to grow 13%, with TurboTax Live revenue up 19%. Historically, each point of total IRS returns growth corresponds to approximately 1 point of revenue growth for the Consumer Group, and each point of DIY category share growth corresponds to approximately 2.5 points of revenue growth for the Consumer Group.

第四項指標是每份報稅單的平均收入，我們預計今年將成長12%，因為我們預期TurboTax Live用戶將成長13%，TurboTax Live營收將成長19%。從歷史數據來看，IRS報稅總量每增長一個百分點，消費者集團的收入大約就會增長一個百分點；而DIY報稅市場份額每增長一個百分點，消費者集團的收入大約就會增長2.5個百分點。

Using these historical sensitivities, the expected decline in total IRS returns and DIY category share equates to an approximate $200 million negative impact to revenue for the Consumer Group versus our original expectations. As a result of this expected decline in IRS returns, we anticipate total customers to decline 5% this year.

考慮到這些歷史敏感因素，預計IRS申報總量和DIY類別份額的下降將導致消費者集團的收入將比我們最初的預期減少約2億美元。由於IRS申報量的預期下降，我們預計今年客戶總數將下降5%。

We expect TurboTax Online paying customers to decline 1% this year and a total of over 11 million customers, who pay us nothing, down from 13 million last year. We now expect full year Consumer Group revenue growth of 5% to 6% versus our prior guidance of 9% to 10%, reflecting the expected declines in IRS returns and DIY category share I mentioned earlier.

我們預計今年TurboTax Online的付費用戶將下降1%，而免費用戶總數將超過1,100萬，低於去年的1,300萬。我們現在預期消費者集團全年營收成長5%至6%，低於先前9%至10%的預期，這反映了我之前提到的IRS報稅和DIY報稅市場份額的預期下降。

Looking back over the last 4 years, including our updated guidance for this fiscal year, we expect our revenue to have grown over 10% on average annually, in line with our long-term expectations. We continue to anticipate Consumer Group revenue growth of 8% to 12% long term.

回顧過去四年，包括我們對本財年的最新業績預期，我們預計營收年均成長將超過10%，與我們的長期預期相符。我們持續預期消費者業務集團的營收長期成長率將達到8%至12%。

Turning to the ProTax Group. Revenue declined 5% in Q3. For the full year, we now expect ProTax revenue growth of 2% to 3%.

接下來是ProTax集團。第三季營收下降了5%。我們現在預計ProTax全年營收將成長2%至3%。

In the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, revenue grew 21% during the quarter and Online Ecosystem revenue grew 23%. With the goal of being the source of truth for small businesses, our strategic focus within the Small Business and Self-Employed Group is threefold: grow the core, connect the ecosystem and expand globally.

在小型企業和自營商業務板塊，本季營收成長了 21%，線上生態系統收入成長了 23%。我們的目標是成為小型企業的權威資訊來源，因此，我們在小型企業和個體經營者業務板塊的策略重點有三方面：發展核心業務、連結生態系統以及拓展全球業務。

First, we continue to focus on growing the core. QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue grew 25% in Q3, driven mainly by customer growth, higher effective prices and mix shift. Second, we continue to focus on connecting the ecosystem. Online Services revenue, which includes Mailchimp, Payroll, Payments, Capital and Time Tracking, grew 21% in Q3.

首先，我們繼續專注於核心業務的成長。 QuickBooks Online Accounting 第三季營收成長 25%，主要得益於客戶成長、實質價格上漲和產品組合調整。其次，我們繼續專注於建構生態系統。包括 Mailchimp、薪資管理、支付、資本管理和時間追蹤在內的線上服務收入在第三季成長 21%。

Mailchimp revenue growth in the quarter accelerated several points from low teens growth last quarter. Growth was driven by higher effective prices and customer growth. Within Payroll, revenue growth in the quarter reflects an increase in Payroll customers and a mix shift to higher-end offerings. Within Payments, revenue growth reflects ongoing customer growth as more customers adopt our payment offerings to manage their cash flow and an increase in total payment volume per customer.

Mailchimp本季營收成長較上季兩位數的低點成長率顯著提升。成長主要得益於更高的有效價格和客戶數量的成長。在薪資管理方面，本季營收成長反映了薪資管理客戶數量的增加以及產品組合向高端產品的轉變。在支付方面，營收成長反映了客戶的持續成長，越來越多的客戶採用我們的支付產品來管理現金流，同時每位客戶的總支付額也有所提高。

Third, we continue to make progress expanding globally by executing our refreshed international strategy, which includes leading with Mailchimp. On a constant currency basis, total international Online Ecosystem revenue grew 12% in Q3, Desktop Ecosystem revenue grew 16% in the third quarter and QuickBooks Desktop Enterprise revenue grew approximately 20%.

第三，我們透過執行更新後的國際策略（包括以Mailchimp為核心），持續推進全球擴張。以固定匯率計算，第三季國際線上生態系統總營收成長12%，桌面生態系營收成長16%，QuickBooks桌面企業版營收成長約20%。

We're just over halfway through a 3-year transition to a subscription model for our desktop accounting solutions, making this revenue more predictable. We also raised our desktop prices for several products last September to price for value. Looking ahead, we expect continued strong desktop ecosystem revenue growth next quarter and as we complete the remaining part of the 3-year transition.

我們桌面會計解決方案向訂閱模式過渡的三年計劃已過半，這將使收入更具可預測性。去年九月，我們也提高了部分桌面產品的價格，以實現價值定價。展望未來，我們預計下一季桌面生態系統營收將繼續保持強勁成長，並隨著三年過渡期的完成而持續成長。

We will continue to build out our Online Ecosystem and help our desktop customers migrate seamlessly to our online offerings when they're ready. We continue to expect the Online Ecosystem to be our growth catalyst longer term. As a result of the strong growth we're seeing in the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, we are raising our full year segment revenue growth guidance to 24% from 19% to 20%.

我們將繼續建立線上生態系統，並在桌面用戶準備好時，幫助他們無縫遷移到我們的線上產品。我們仍然預期線上生態系統將成為我們長期成長的催化劑。鑑於小型企業和自營商群體的強勁成長，我們將該群體全年營收成長預期從19%至20%上調至24%。

Credit Karma delivered revenue of $410 million in Q3, down 12%. As a reminder, Credit Karma represented 14% of our total revenue in fiscal 2022. On a product basis, the decline was driven primarily by headwinds in personal loans, home loans, auto loans and auto insurance, partially offset by growth in Credit Karma Money and credit cards. We're seeing more stability across our core verticals.

Credit Karma 第三季營收為 4.1 億美元，較去年同期下降 12%。需要指出的是，Credit Karma 在 2022 財政年度占我們總營收的 14%。從產品來看，營收下滑主要受個人貸款、房屋貸款、汽車貸款和汽車保險業務疲軟的影響，部分被 Credit Karma Money 和信用卡業務的成長所抵銷。我們核心業務板塊的整體表現趨於穩定。

In both credit cards and personal loans, we continue to see some partners tighten eligibility, while some expanded eligibility during the quarter. In personal loans, we continue to see partners facing funding constraints. We added more partners to the platform to help diversify our partner base. However, we continue to expect personal loan revenue to decline this year after a very strong growth in fiscal 2022.

在信用卡和個人貸款領域，我們持續看到一些合作夥伴收緊了申請資格，而另一些合作夥伴則在本季度放寬了申請資格。在個人貸款領域，我們持續看到合作夥伴面臨資金限制。我們已在平台上新增了更多合作夥伴，以協助實現合作夥伴基礎多元化。然而，在經歷了2022財年的強勁成長之後，我們仍然預計今年個人貸款收入將出現下滑。

We're updating our full year Credit Karma revenue growth guidance to a decline of 11% from a decline of 15% to 10%.

我們將全年 Credit Karma 營收成長預期從下降 15% 調整為下降 11%。

Our financial principles guide our decisions remain our long-term commitment and are unchanged. We finished the quarter with approximately $4.3 billion in cash and investments and $6.6 billion in debt on our balance sheet. We repurchased $483 million of stock during the third quarter. Depending on market conditions and other factors, our aim is to be in the market each quarter.

我們的財務原則指導著我們的決策，這仍然是我們的長期承諾，並且不會改變。本季末，我們的資產負債表上約有43億美元的現金和投資，以及66億美元的債務。第三季度，我們回購了價值4.83億美元的股票。根據市場狀況和其他因素，我們的目標是每個季度都參與市場交易。

The Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.78 per share payable July 18, 2023. This represents a 15% increase versus last year.

董事會批准派發每股0.78美元的季度股息，將於2023年7月18日支付。比去年增長了15%。

As I shared consistently in the past, we have an operating system we use to run the company, and this includes a proven playbook for operating in both good and difficult economic times. Our first priority is to do the right thing for customers, giving them access to the tools and offerings they need most. We manage for the short and long term and control discretionary spend to deliver strong results while investing in what is most important for future growth. The scale of our platform, along with our rich data, gives us the unique ability to see leading indicators that allow us to be forward-looking and adjust quickly.

正如我過去一直強調的，我們擁有一套營運公司的系統，其中包括一套行之有效的策略，無論經濟狀況好壞，我們都能有效應對。我們的首要任務是為客戶提供最佳服務，讓他們獲得最需要的工具和產品。我們兼顧短期和長期發展，控制可自由支配的支出，以取得卓越的業績，同時投資於對未來成長至關重要的領域。我們平台的規模以及豐富的數據，使我們能夠洞察先機，快速做出調整。

I'm proud of the team for how effectively we have used our playbook to invest in the most important growth drivers to position Intuit for the future while maintaining earnings power this year despite the macro impact we are experiencing. We will continue to accelerate our innovation, and our goal remains for Intuit to emerge from this period of macro uncertainty in a position of strength.

我為團隊感到自豪，我們有效地運用既定策略，投資於最重要的成長驅動因素，使 Intuit 能夠面向未來發展，同時在當前宏觀經濟衝擊下保持了今年的盈利能力。我們將繼續加速創新，我們的目標仍然是讓 Intuit 能夠從這段宏觀經濟不確定時期中強勢復甦。

Moving on to guidance. We are increasing our fiscal 2023 guidance. This includes total company revenue growth of 12% to 13%, up from prior guidance of 10% to 12% growth; GAAP operating income growth of 19% to 20%, up from prior guidance of 9% to 13% growth; non-GAAP operating income growth of 21%, up from prior guidance of 17% to 19% growth; GAAP diluted earnings per share to grow 7% to 8%, up from prior guidance of a decline of approximately 5% to 1%; and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share growth of 20%, up from prior guidance of 15% to 17% growth. Our guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 includes revenue growth of 9% to 10%, GAAP loss per share of $0.34 to $0.29 and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.43 to $1.48.

接下來是業績展望。我們上調了2023財年的業績展望。具體而言，公司總營收成長12%至13%，高於先前10%至12%的預期；GAAP營業利潤成長19%至20%，高於先前9%至13%的預期；非GAAP營業利潤成長21% ，高於先前17%至19%的預期；GAAP稀釋後每股盈餘成長7%至8%，高於先前約1%至5%的預期；非GAAP稀釋後每股盈餘成長20%，高於先前15%至17%的預期。我們對2023財年第四季的業績展望包括：營收成長9%至10%，GAAP每股虧損0.34美元至0.29美元，非GAAP每股收益1.43美元至1.48美元。

We expect a significant increase in our cash tax payments related to fiscal 2023 as a result of the tax law changes that require capitalization of certain R&D costs. With the recent IRS disaster area tax relief, we expect to pay approximately $700 million related to fiscal 2023 in Q1 of fiscal 2024. You can find our full fiscal 2023 and Q4 guidance details in our press release and on our fact sheet.

由於稅法變更要求將部分研發成本資本化，我們預計2023財年相關的現金稅支出將大幅增加。鑑於美國國稅局近期針對災區的稅收減免政策，我們預計將在2024財年第一季支付約7億美元與2023財年相關的稅款。您可以在我們的新聞稿和情況說明書中找到完整的2023財年及第四季度業績指引詳情。

And with that, I'll turn it back over to Sasan.

好了，現在我把麥克風交還給薩桑。

Excellent. Thank you, Michelle. I know you'll be with us for another couple of months, but since this is your last earnings call, I wanted to express my sincere appreciation for all that you've contributed to Intuit over the last 20 years. You have made me, my leadership team and the entire company better, and I am forever grateful.

太好了。謝謝你，米歇爾。我知道你還會和我們一起待幾個月，但因為這是你的最後一次財報電話會議，我想真誠地感謝你過去20年來為Intuit所做的一切貢獻。你讓我、我的領導團隊以及整個公司變得更好，我將永遠感激不盡。

Wrapping up, we feel confident in our AI-driven expert platform strategy and our 5 Big Bets and in an uncertain macro (inaudible) mission-critical than ever to our customers.

總結起來，我們對我們的人工智慧驅動專家平台策略和五大措施充滿信心，在不確定的宏觀經濟環境下，這對我們的客戶來說比以往任何時候都更加至關重要。

Let's now open it up to your questions.

現在進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Brad Zelnick from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brad Zelnick。

Michelle, congrats on a phenomenal run. We will miss you next quarter, for sure, on the earnings call. I've got one for Sasan and maybe let me sneak one in for Michelle, especially since it's her last call.

米歇爾，祝賀你取得如此輝煌的成就。下個季度財報電話會議上，我們肯定會想念你的。我為薩桑準備了一份，也許也該給米歇爾加一份，畢竟這是她最後一次參加電話會議了。

Sasan, how should we think about your Big Bet in helping customers overcome their lack of confidence by connecting them to live experts in a world where generative AI is advancing at breakneck speed? Because I think you spoke about how you're using generative AI to deliver the live platform. But how is Intuit positioned in a world where LLMs may be able to deliver human-like guidance and interaction?

Sasan，在生成式人工智慧快速發展的今天，您提出的幫助客戶克服信心不足，將他們與真人專家聯繫起來的「大賭注」應該如何看待？因為我記得您提到如何利用生成式人工智慧來建立即時平台。但是，在即時專家（L​​LM）可能提供類似人類的指導和互動的時代，Intuit 的定位又是什麼呢？

And maybe for you, Michelle, your Consumer segment operating margin was consistent with last year despite the pressure on the top line, for all the reasons that you've mentioned. Just curious, how much visibility that you might have had into how tax would play out, and if you scaled back investment at all, perhaps even marketing dollars, into the end of the season?

米歇爾，或許對你來說，儘管營收面臨壓力（正如你提到的種種原因），但你的消費品業務部門的營業利潤率與去年持平。我只是好奇，你對稅收政策的影響有多大把握？你是否在季末縮減了投資，包括行銷預算？

Great. Brad, thank you so much for your question. And I heard that I fell off when I was reading the last part of the script. So if I have bad connection, I will switch phones and hop back to make sure I answer your question. But let me start with the question that you asked. First of all, I would take us back to what we declared 4 years ago.

太好了。布拉德，非常感謝你的提問。我聽說我在讀稿子最後一部分的時候掉線了。所以如果網路不好，我會換個手機再連上，確保能回答你的問題。不過，還是先回答你提出的問題吧。首先，我想讓我們回到四年前我們所做的決定。

As you know, I've been on the record 4-plus years ago to say that I believe, and we believe as a company, that artificial intelligence is going to ignite global growth. And I believe that it's the biggest thing next to what we've experienced over time with electricity and the Internet. It's that big, and it's that critical of a platform of innovation, which is why data and AI have been core to our investments in the last 4-plus years. And with that as context, it's why we've been investing specifically in machine learning, knowledge engineering, natural language processing. And several years ago, we really started accelerating our investments in generative AI.

如你所知，早在四年前我就公開表示，我相信，我們公司也堅信，人工智慧將點燃全球經濟成長的引擎。我認為，它的重要性僅次於電力和網路。它是如此巨大，如此關鍵，堪稱創新平台。也因為如此，在過去四年多的時間裡，數據和人工智慧一直是我們投資的核心。基於此，我們專注於機器學習、知識工程和自然語言處理。幾年前，我們更是開始加速對生成式人工智慧的投資。

And if I take it back to your question around confidence, when we talked about solving the biggest unsaid problem that customers have, which is around confidence, it is really about solving it by helping them feel confident in their decisions. And it doesn't necessarily always mean people. And in fact, if you look at our interactions today across all of our platforms, a large number of our interactions is actually -- are machines that are solving the customers' largest problems.

回到你關於信心的問題，我們之前討論過如何解決客戶最大的未言明的問題——信心問題。而解決的關鍵在於幫助他們對自己的決策充滿信心。這並不總是需要人來做。事實上，如果你看看我們目前在所有平台上的互動，你會發現很多互動實際上是由機器完成的，它們正在解決客戶面臨的最大難題。

The reason we are so excited about AI from 4-plus years ago is that you couple our data, which is a 360 view of the customer, it's actually where Credit Karma and Mailchimp has played such an important role to add to our rich data set. You couple that with the investments in AI and now with generative AI, we can actually accelerate penetrating nonconsumption. And this is across every customer that we serve, whether it's Consumers, across Credit Karma, whether it's Tax, whether it's Small Business, we have an incredible opportunity to accelerate on making things more easier, more digestible and more confident and inspiring for our customers.

四年前我們對人工智慧如此興奮的原因在於，它將我們的資料（即客戶的360度全方位視圖）與Credit Karma和Mailchimp在豐富我們資料集方面發揮的重要作用相結合。再加上我們在人工智慧領域的投資，以及如今生成式人工智慧的出現，我們能夠加速滲透到非消費領域。這適用於我們服務的每一位客戶，無論是消費者、Credit Karma用戶、稅務人員或小型企業用戶，我們都擁有絕佳的機會，讓客戶體驗更便利、更易理解、更自信、更有啟發性。

And in fact, it's generative AI that gives us the ability to do things that we could never imagine possible because of the data that we have. So for us, we saw this as an accelerant several years ago. It's why we accelerated our investments, and it's why we're so excited about the future because of the large language models, coupled with AI, coupled with machine learning and the investments that we've made, we believe that we can actually accelerate our innovation as we look ahead. And hopefully, I was loud and clear.

事實上，正是生成式人工智慧讓我們能夠利用現有的數據，實現以前想都不敢想的事情。所以，幾年前我們就意識到它具有加速發展的影響。也因為如此，我們加大了投資力度，也正因如此，我們對未來充滿信心。我們相信，憑藉大型語言模型、人工智慧、機器學習以及我們已投入的資源，我們能夠真正加速未來的創新。希望我的意思表達得夠清楚。

Yes. That was good. And Brad, first off, thank you for the kind words. Your question around our ability to maintain the earnings power within CG really is a focus for us as a whole company, and it started last year when we were going through our 3- and 1-year planning process. We assumed that there would be economic uncertainty this year. And so as we were going through the process, we made sure that we had funded those things that were most important to delivering for customers and being able to drive our revenue growth.

是的，這很好。布拉德，首先感謝你的讚揚。你問到我們能否在CG內部保持獲利能力，這確實是我們整個公司關注的重點，這個問題從去年我們進行三年和一年規劃時就開始考慮了。我們預料到今年的經濟狀況會存在不確定性。因此，在規劃過程中，我們確保為那些對服務客戶和推動營收成長至關重要的專案提供充足的資金。

And then we were -- made a list of the levers that we had that we could pull as we went throughout the year to be able to maintain our earnings power. And those are some of the discretionary things we had, which were -- whether it's travel or advertising or moderating, hiring. And so our lower-tax units also this year did result in lower expenses for that segment, specifically in customer success. But really, it's about us looking at maintaining not CG margins, but really, at the company level, and it started last year in planning.

然後，我們列出了可以全年採取的各種措施來維持獲利能力。這些措施包括一些可自由支配的支出，例如差旅、廣告、節目製作和招募。今年，我們一些稅率較低的部門也降低了該部門的支出，尤其是在客戶成功方面。但實際上，我們關注的重點並非維持毛利率，而是公司層級的運營，而這項工作從去年的規劃階段就開始了。

And your next question comes from the line of Kash Rangan from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的卡什·蘭根。

Goodbye to you, Michelle. We'll miss you. Question for Sasan and the team. Sasan, in order to get back to the targets of 8% to 12% longer-term Consumer, you're going to have to reaccelerate the Tax business. So if we can go back to the basics from the old days, how does it -- do you plan to grow the category? And how do you gain share of that category? That would be great.

再見了，米歇爾。我們會想念你的。問薩桑和團隊一個問題。薩桑，為了實現長期消費者業務8%到12%的成長目標，你們必須重新加速稅務業務的發展。如果我們能回歸過去的基本模式，你們打算如何發展這個品類？又該如何提升市佔率？非常感謝。

And also as it pertains to generative AI, does this open up more opportunities netted against maybe potentially new competitive entrants? Because there is a -- there are thesis, which I'm sure you will have a different view on, that it actually makes it easier to file for taxes. Brad was talking about that -- Brad Zelnick earlier. So does it expand the opportunity set, at the same time attracting new competition? Or how do we think about how it nets out for you guys?

另外，就生成式人工智慧而言，這是否會帶來更多機遇，同時也可能吸引新的競爭對手？因為有一種觀點認為（我相信你們會有不同的看法），它實際上會讓報稅變得更容易。布拉德·澤爾尼克之前也談到過這一點。那麼，這是否在擴大機會範圍的同時，也吸引了新的競爭對手？或者，你們如何看待它最終對你們的影響？

Yes. Thank you for the question, Kash. So a couple of things I would start with. I'll take your question around reaccelerating revenue growth. First of all, if I step back and look at the $200 million of impact that we experienced this year because of the lower number of returns and based on all the analysis that we've done, it's really the pandemic-era filers that came in to get access to their stimulus into their tax credits. And those have, based on our own analysis, have really all now left the category.

是的，謝謝你的提問，Kash。首先我想談幾點。關於如何重新加速營收成長，我先說。首先，回顧一下我們今年因退稅數量減少而遭受的2億美元損失。根據我們所有的分析，這主要是因為疫情期間提交的報稅申請，這些申請者原本是為了獲得政府的刺激性稅收抵免。而根據我們自己的分析，這些人現在基本上已經不再符合退稅條件了。

One, we believe we'll get to sort of a more normal environment. That is really what drove the performance -- the lower performance than we expected this year. The second thing, to get to your question around reacceleration, this is where I feel very good about the performance in an environment where there were lower returns with our TurboTax Live business.

第一，我們相信市場環境會逐漸恢復正常。這才是導致今年業績低於預期的主因。第二，關於您提到的業績回升問題，在TurboTax Live業務收益較低的情況下，我對目前的業績表現感到非常滿意。

If you think about it, this is now $1 billion-plus business growing 19%. And I believe, in the next several years, this will actually be the largest part of the TurboTax business. And it's really in context of getting after the $30 billion of TAM, that is consumers that go to an assisted offering to get their taxes done or businesses that get their business tax done.

仔細想想，這現在是一個規模超過10億美元的業務，而且成長率高達19%。我相信，在未來幾年，這實際上將成為TurboTax業務中最大的組成部分。而這一切都是為了爭取300億美元的市場規模，也就是那些使用輔助服務完成個人報稅的消費者，以及那些使用輔助服務完成企業報稅的企業。

And we believe, based on what we learned this year with our full-service offering, that we have an enormous chance to be able to really penetrate at a much more accelerated rate as we look ahead, and therefore, very confident in not only our performance this year, if you exclude the lower number of returns, but also the green sheets that we saw going into next year, inclusive of the fact that we had 5 extra growth in the Credit Karma platform, and we learned a number of things that we're going to double down on going into next year.

我們相信，基於今年我們全方位服務產品所取得的經驗，展望未來，我們有巨大的機會以更快的速度真正滲透市場。因此，我們不僅對今年的業績充滿信心（如果排除較低的回報數量），而且對明年的盈利前景也充滿信心，包括Credit Karma平台額外增長5%，以及我們學到的一些經驗，我們將在明年加倍投入。

And let me couple that with your second question around AI. Listen, I would say, [leading] the ones 4-plus years ago, that said, and we're on the record that we believe that AI will absolutely be disruptive. And it's why we made investments in data because AI, particularly generative AI, is really meaningless without data. And so with the investments that we've made in having a 360 view of data for consumers and small businesses, we actually kind of see it as an incredible accelerant.

讓我把這和你關於人工智慧的第二個問題連結起來。聽著，我想說，早在四年前，我們就明確表示，我們相信人工智慧絕對會帶來顛覆性變革。正因如此，我們才投資數據，因為沒有數據，人工智慧，尤其是生成式人工智慧，就毫無意義。因此，我們投資建立面向消費者和小型企業的全方位數據視圖，我們認為這實際上是一種強大的加速器。

And I'll just remind us of -- we often talk about we have a $300 billion TAM with 5% penetration. And most of our customers use Excel, Google Sheets, Shoeboxes, whether it's a small business or a consumer, and manage their life to manage their business, or they go have a bookkeeper help them run their business. And the reason it's 5% because it all comes down to confidence.

我還要提醒大家──我們常提到，我們擁有3,000億美元的潛在市場規模，但市場滲透率只有5%。我們的大多數客戶，無論是小型企業還是個人消費者，都使用Excel、Google Sheets、Shoeboxes等工具來管理生活，以此來管理業務，或者他們會聘請簿記員來幫助他們經營業務。之所以滲透率只有5%，是因為一切都取決於信心。

So we're actually able to see our investments in the last 4-plus years in data and AI with what we are now investing in with generative AI. We, for us, think it's going to accelerate because we have incredible scale. We have data scale, AI scale, customer scale, and we have sort of rich data sets that is really undisputed, which means we can do things for customers that is hard for anybody else to do. So we actually see it as an accelerant, and we're excited about the possibilities given the proof points that we've seen and given the investments that we are currently making. So that's the way we think about it.

所以，我們能夠看到過去四年多來在數據和人工智慧領域的投資，與我們目前在生成式人工智慧領域的投資成果相吻合。我們認為，由於我們擁有驚人的規模，這項投資將會加速發展。我們擁有資料規模、人工智慧規模和客戶規模，而且我們擁有無可爭議的豐富資料集，這意味著我們可以為客戶完成其他公司難以完成的任務。因此，我們將其視為一種加速器，並且鑑於我們已經看到的成果以及我們目前正在進行的投資，我們對未來的發展前景感到興奮。這就是我們對這項投資的看法。

The next question comes from the line of Kirk Materne from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Kirk Materne。

Congrats, Sasan. Michelle, good luck on your next endeavor. I guess, Sasan, can you just talk about the state of the Small Business? There's a lot of debate on that right now. Obviously, you all had a nice quarter in SBSE. Can you just talk about what you're seeing there in terms of the different verticals you play in, and frankly, the ability for you all to upsell some of your offerings like Payroll, Payments?

恭喜Sasan。 Michelle，祝福你接下來的事業一切順利。 Sasan，我想請你談談小企業的現況？目前關於這個主題有很多討論。顯然，你們在小型企業服務業（SBSE）的季度業績不錯。你能談談你們在各個垂直領域觀察到的情況嗎？坦白說，你們在提升薪資管理和支付等產品銷售方面有什麼經驗？

Yes. Yes, sure. Let me frame my answer in 2 dimensions. One, what we see across all small businesses on our platform and off of our platform. There's a couple of things that we see. One is there is an impact to small businesses revenues. They're still growing. It depends on the sector, but in aggregate, they're -- what we see is that they are still growing. They also -- depending on the sector they serve, they have profit pressures. So if they're in real estate or if they're in lending, they certainly have more profit pressure than those that don't serve those sectors.

是的，當然。讓我從兩個方面來回答這個問題。首先，我們觀察了平台上和平台外所有小型企業的情況。我們觀察到兩點。一是小型企業的收入確實受到了影響。它們仍在增長。這取決於具體行業，但總體而言，我們看到它們仍在成長。二是它們也面臨利潤壓力，這取決於它們所服務的產業。例如，如果它們從事房地產或貸款業務，那麼它們面臨的利潤壓力肯定比那些不服務這些行業的企業更大。

We also see that customers -- we put them in the bucket of the older, more tenured customers, 70% of those customers actually have more cash reserves than they did pre-pandemic. It's more of the younger, newer businesses that have started since the pandemic that generally they have less cash reserves than maybe the (inaudible) sort of the state of the small businesses. They feel the impact and the pressure of the environment from a consumer spending standpoint. But net-net, when you look in aggregate, they are still growing with some of the data points that I mentioned a moment ago.

我們也發現，客戶——我們把他們歸類為較老、忠誠度較高的客戶——其中70%的客戶實際上比疫情前擁有更多的現金儲備。而疫情後成立的新興企業，其現金儲備普遍低於（聽不清楚）小型企業的水平。他們感受到了消費支出方面環境的影響和壓力。但總的來說，從整體來看，根據我剛才提到的一些數據，他們仍在成長。

With that said, when we look at our platform, it's why we're just being -- continuing to be intentional about sharing the proof points that we shared today. Our platform is not immune, but we are resilient. And so when you look at some of the data points that we shared, our Payments -- our total Payments -- online Payments volume is 20%, which is actually quite healthy, but it's down 5 points.

綜上所述，當我們檢視自身平台時，就會明白為何我們要繼續有意識地分享今天所發表的這些論點。我們的平台並非毫髮無損，但我們擁有強大的韌性。例如，我們分享的一些數據表明，我們的支付業務——包括線上支付——佔總支付額的20%，雖然下降了5個百分點，但總體而言仍然相當健康。

At the same time, when you look at our overall performance across Mailchimp and QuickBooks, we actually are seeing strength in serving our mid-market customers and continuing to serve our customers that have been on the platform for a long time. The proof points that I shared was our customer growth in mid-market is strong.

同時，從Mailchimp和QuickBooks的整體表現來看，我們在服務中端市場客戶以及長期使用我們平台的客戶方面確實表現出色。我之前提到的幾點就證明了這一點：我們在中端市場的客戶成長強勁。

We're growing Payroll -- U.S. Payroll double digits, and we're actually seeing a migration to our higher-end Payroll offerings. And net-net, we are not immune, but we are resilient, and we feel really good about the sustained growth that we've delivered and the trajectory of the KPIs that we see as we look into next year.

我們的薪資業務——尤其是美國薪資業務——實現了兩位數的成長，而且我們確實看到客戶正在向我們更高端的薪資服務產品遷移。總而言之，我們並非完全不受衝擊，但我們具有很強的韌性，我們對已實現的持續成長以及展望明年各項關鍵績效指標的發展軌跡感到非常滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Weiss from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯。

Michelle, it's been great working for you -- or with you over the years. So congratulations on all the great work that you've done. Sasan, a question for you on just tax and kind of how it unfolded throughout this season. I understand sort of overall filings down because of less people kind of getting the refunds, right?

米歇爾，這些年來能為你工作——或者說與你共事——真是太棒了。祝賀你所做的一切出色工作。薩桑，我有個關於稅務的問題想問你，關於本季的稅務狀況。我了解到，由於退稅人數減少，整體報稅數量下降，對嗎？

And I understand DIY is probably a bigger component of it. I don't quite understand why TurboTax lose the share in that dynamic. Like what's the mechanism by which you guys get hit harder than others, and therefore, kind of lose share? That's question number one.

我知道DIY（自己動手）可能佔了很大一部分。我不太明白為什麼TurboTax在這種市場動態中會失去市場份額。你們受到的衝擊比其他公司更大，從而導致市場份額下降，這背後的機制是什麼？這是我的第一個問題。

And question number two, there has been some concern about an extended tax season and the ability for approximately 10% of filers to be able to file at a later date that pushes out of your fiscal year. You didn't mention that. Was there any significant impact from that side of the equation that some of this tax strength might just push into next fiscal year?

第二個問題，有人擔心報稅季會延長，大約10%的納稅人可以延後報稅日期，超出本財年。您沒有提到這一點。這種情況是否會對稅收優惠政策產生重大影響，導致部分稅收優惠延至下一個財政年度？

Yes. Sure, Keith. Great question. Let me start with your share question. First and foremost, the majority of -- in fact, we would say, close to all of those that came into the category of taxes, to get access to their stimulus dollars and to their tax credit that were not tax filers before, almost all of them came into the do-it-yourself category because it is so much easier and faster to get access to, in essence, all their credit. And those are the filers that we see that have left the do-it-yourself category.

是的，當然，基斯。問得好。我先回答你關於份額的問題。首先，絕大多數——實際上，我們可以說幾乎全部——那些為了獲得刺激資金和稅收抵免而選擇自行報稅的人，他們之前幾乎都是通過這種方式獲得這些抵免，因為這樣更容易、更快捷。而現在，我們看到的正是那些不再選擇自行報稅的人。

The reason our share is down is actually pure math. We're the largest share player in the do-it-yourself category, and we got the largest share of those folks that actually came in during the pandemic era. And when they left the category, just by pure math and the cohort of customers that we review in our retention, what we, in essence, see is those cohort of customers that came in that did not file taxes before to get access to credits are the ones that left, which is actually what gives us confidence, when we look at our key retention forwards looking ahead, but also our TurboTax Live performance that we talked about earlier.

我們市佔率下降的原因其實很簡單，純粹是數學問題。我們是自助報稅領域市佔率最大的公司，而且在疫情期間，我們吸引了最多的新用戶。但當他們離開這個領域時，根據我們的客戶留存分析，以及我們對客戶群的分析，我們發現，那些之前為了獲得稅收抵免而沒有報稅的客戶群，正是流失的客戶。這讓我們對未來的關鍵客戶留存率以及先前提到的TurboTax Live的表現充滿信心。

So that's where -- that's how the share plays out. It's pure math. We got the majority of them, and when they left the category, they left TurboTax. In terms of extensions, yes, there's dollars attached to it, Keith. But in context of a $14 billion company, it's really -- we don't consider it material. So that's why we didn't show, and I didn't really spend much time talking about it.

所以這就是市場佔有率的組成。純粹是數學問題。我們拿下了大部分用戶，當他們離開這個類別時，他們也就離開了TurboTax。至於擴充程序，是的，Keith，這其中確實包含一些收入。但對於一家市值140億美元的公司來說，這真的——我們認為它微不足道。所以這就是為什麼我們沒有展示這部分內容，我也沒花太多時間討論它。

Your next question comes from the line of Siti Panigrahi from Mizuho.

你的下一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的 Siti Panigrahi。

Michelle, it was great working with you. Good luck with your next endeavor. And Sasan, I want to dig into Mailchimp. It's good to see that acceleration to mid- to high-teens growth in Mailchimp. So could you talk about -- like you made some changes. How much of that contributed to growth versus what are you seeing in the demand environment? Is macro really a headwind at this point? What are you seeing in the spending pattern on marketing from your customer base? And how sustainable going forward?

米歇爾，和你一起工作非常愉快。祝你接下來的工作一切順利。薩桑，我想深入了解Mailchimp。很高興看到Mailchimp的成長速度達到了15%到10%的中高水準。可以談談你們做了哪些改變嗎？這些改變對成長的貢獻有多大？你觀察到的需求環境又如何？宏觀經濟因素目前真的構成阻力嗎？你的客戶群在行銷方面的支出模式如何？這種成長動能能否持續？

Was the last part of your question how sustainable is that going forward?

你問題的最後一部分是指這種做法在未來是否可持續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. So thank you for the question. First of all, very consistent with what I've shared in the last probably 18 months or so, we felt, and I felt very strongly that the opportunity that we had with Mailchimp is how we bring it together with QuickBooks to truly create one platform that becomes the source of truth for running your business. And in an environment where now we have access to, with our customers' permission, the data, applying AI and generative AI, we can now shift the platform to a place where we can do everything for you and deliver insights to help you manage your cash flow, to help you grow your customers. And that's really the ultimate game changer that we are focused on.

好的。謝謝你的提問。首先，正如我在過去大約18個月裡一直強調的，我們認為（我個人也強烈地認為），我們與Mailchimp合作的機會在於如何將其與QuickBooks整合，真正打造一個統一的平台，成為您企業運營的權威信息來源。在獲得客戶許可的情況下，我們現在可以存取這些數據，並運用人工智慧和生成式人工智慧技術，將平台轉型為一個能夠為您提供全方位服務的平台，並提供洞察分析，幫助您管理現金流，拓展客戶群。這正是我們目前關注的終極變革。

With that said, the thing that I've been very consistent with you all is that this is all about execution. So all of the progress that you're seeing us talk about in Mailchimp is all better execution. It is not any macro tailwinds. This is from the talent that we've put in place at the leadership level and the talent that we have upgraded across Mailchimp to then end-to-end.

話雖如此，我一直強調的是，這一切都取決於執行力。所以，你們看到的Mailchimp所取得的所有進步，都源自於執行力的提升，而非任何宏觀的有利因素。這得歸功於我們在領導層安插的人才，以及我們在Mailchimp各環節提升的人才隊伍。

We've been revamping the website. We have the -- looking at business model, innovation in our lineup, and we've made improvements. We're improving the product. We're doubling down on mid-market and not only getting our existing customers to understand what features and functionality that we have to deliver the benefit, which helps us with retention and expansion revenue, but also the new customers that we're getting at assisted onboarding and using a lot of our AI and virtual expert platform capabilities.

我們一直在網站進行改版。我們正在審視商業模式，優化產品線，並進行改進。我們正在提升產品品質。我們正加倍投入中端市場，不僅要讓現有客戶了解我們提供的功能和服務，從而提升客戶留存率和收入成長，還要幫助新客戶順利完成註冊流程，並充分利用我們的人工智慧和虛擬專家平台功能。

So those were sort of illustrative examples relative to why we're seeing paid conversion increase, paid customers increase. We're seeing better retention and better revenue per customer. It is all execution, and I expect this to continue to improve our execution, and coupling that with what we're doing across the QuickBooks platform, truly creating one platform that becomes a source of truth for your business. I am excited and bullish about the future possibilities of what we can do for small businesses, particularly with what's possible with data and gen AI.

以上這些例子可以說明為什麼我們看到付費轉換率和付費客戶數量都在增加。我們看到客戶留存率和每位客戶的收入都在提高。這一切都歸功於執行力，我預期我們的執行力將繼續提升，並結合我們在 QuickBooks 平台上所做的工作，真正打造一個能夠成為您企業資料權威來源的統一平台。我對我們未來能為小型企業帶來的機會感到興奮和樂觀，尤其是在數據和人工智慧技術的應用方面。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer.

你的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的史考特‧施內伯格。

Michelle, best wishes for sure. Sasan, I guess this could be a double tax question. The IRS is down 1% year-to-date. You're saying down 2% through the end of July. Just curious, what's going to take it down more in your eyes and how that looks in future years as you continue to think this is more just a pandemic-related year and we get back to normalcy? That's part number one.

米歇爾，祝你一切順利。薩桑，我想這可能是雙重課稅的問題。美國國稅局今年迄今的稅收下降了1%。你說到7月底下降了2%。我只是好奇，在你看來，什麼因素會導致稅收進一步下降？隨著你認為今年只是疫情影響的一年，未來幾年又會如何？這是第一部分。

And part number two, historically, when we look at unit growth of TurboTax, which was -- you anticipated to be negative 5%, and then revenue per return, which you anticipate to be plus 12%, usually A plus B equals the Consumer segment revenue growth. But you have -- and that would be 7%-plus, but you're guiding 5% to 6%. So is there conservatism in there? Or is there maybe some financial products that you were unable to sell so you're getting a little less -- that maybe is not qualified as revenue per return but something else? Or maybe it's something that's not TurboTax-related directly in the category?

第二部分，從歷史數據來看，TurboTax 的銷售成長率——您之前預計為負 5%——以及每份報稅單的收入增長率——您之前預計為正 12%——通常情況下，A 加 B 等於消費者業務的收入增長率。但您目前的預期是 7% 以上，而您給的指導值為 5% 到 6%。這其中是否存在保守的預期？或者是否存在一些您未能售出的金融產品，導致您的收入略有下降——這些收入可能不屬於每份報稅單的收入範疇，而是其他因素造成的？又或者，這是否與 TurboTax 本身沒有直接關係？

Sure, Scott. Let me take your first question. There are 2 assumptions that we are making based on all the data that we have and what we see from last year. One is there was actually a lot more extensions last year than we view will take place this year, even with the states that have pushed out. Plus last year, there were more filers. This is in the bucket of the pre-pandemic era -- or the pandemic-era filers that came in to get their stimulus money in their tax credits. There was still a lot of those filers last year through July and a little bit beyond. And so when we take out those filers and we compare to the extensions last year, our view is that IRS will be down 2%. And so that has, of course, an impact, 2%, which has an impact on the performance that we talked about.

當然，斯科特。讓我先回答你的第一個問題。根據我們掌握的所有數據以及去年的情況，我們做了兩個假設。首先，去年的延期數量實際上比我們預計今年要多得多，即使算上那些已經推遲的州。其次，去年的報稅人數也更多。這部分人潮包括疫情前報稅的人群，以及疫情期間前來申請稅收抵免以領取紓困資金的人潮。去年7月及以後，這類報稅人數仍然很多。因此，當我們剔除這些報稅人數，並與去年的延期情況進行比較時，我們預計國稅局的稅負將下降2%。這當然會對我們之前討論的業績產生影響，下降幅度為2%。

Secondarily, we really did an incredible amount of analysis to make sure that we had an understanding of these pandemic-era filers and are they all sort of out. And the reality is there's no more stimulus for tax credits to be had by those filers. So based on all of our analysis, they are out.

其次，我們進行了大量的分析，以確保我們了解這些疫情期間報稅的人的情況，以及他們是否都已不符合資格。而現實情況是，這些報稅者無法再獲得任何稅收抵免刺激措施。因此，根據我們所有的分析，他們已經不符合資格了。

And so therefore, we expect this year that IRS, at a minimum, is going to be flat. And of course, when we guide, we'll share with you what we've assumed in our guidance in August. But we would assume, at a minimum, it will be flat, maybe even up but, at a minimum, flat based on the reasons that I just mentioned. So that's the first part of your question.

因此，我們預計今年美國國稅局的財政收入至少會持平。當然，我們會在8月發佈業績指引時與您分享我們的假設。但基於我剛才提到的原因，我們預期財政收入至少會持平，甚至可能略有成長，但至少會持平。這就是您問題的第一部分。

The second part of your question is a really good one, and I'll get to the specifics in a moment. I think just sort of reiterate, even in an environment where IRS returns went down, our future is TurboTax Live. And our future is the growth of what we can do with our Live platform, especially with the data and AI capabilities that we have to really disrupt the assisted segment. And our real compass going forward is going to be the growth of our TurboTax Live platform, both in terms of customer growth and revenue growth.

您問題的第二部分問得非常好，我稍後會詳細說明。我想再次強調，即使在國稅局報稅量下降的情況下，我們的未來依然在於TurboTax Live。我們的未來在於不斷拓展Live平台的功能，特別是利用我們擁有的數據和人工智慧能力，真正顛覆輔助報稅領域。我們未來的發展方向將始終是TurboTax Live平台的成長，包括用戶成長和營收成長。

And I may just ask Michelle to weigh in on this, but this sort of comes down to just pure math in terms of when we look at our units and we look at what folks paid for, it sort of adds up to the 12 points seen up in ARPC. It's really nothing beyond that, but let me just ask Michelle. Michelle, would you weigh in on that point at all beyond what I just shared?

我或許應該請米歇爾就此發表一下看法，但歸根究底，這只是純粹的數學問題。當我們查看我們的單元數據以及用戶支付的費用時，最終結果與ARPC中顯示的12分基本吻合。除此之外，真的沒什麼別的了。不過，我還是想問米歇爾。米歇爾，除了我剛才提到的，你對這一點還有什麼補充嗎？

Sorry. I was having trouble with the mute button there. No, Sasan. Some of it can just be also rounding with units and returns. And so I wouldn't get overly concerned on that, Scott.

抱歉，我剛才的靜音按鈕有點問題。不，薩桑。有些也可能是單位和回車造成的四捨五入誤差。所以斯科特，你不用太擔心。

Got it. So the headline is the 12 points in ARPC growth is sort of very tangible relative to the units that we got?

明白了。所以，重點是，相對於我們獲得的銷售量而言，ARPC成長12個百分點是非常顯著的？

Yes. You got the 12 points of ARPC. And then as you said, Scott, we shared we expect the units to be down 5%. So...

是的。你拿到了ARPC的12分。然後正如你所說，斯科特，我們預計銷量會下降5%。所以…

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Jester from BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Daniel Jester。

A couple more on tax. I think you mentioned before that overall retention, because of the factors you mentioned on the call already, is going to be down this year. But could you focus in on just Live retention, given how important that's going to be for the future of the platform? How did that shake out this year?

關於稅務方面還有幾個問題。我想您之前提到過，由於您在電話會議上提到的那些因素，今年的整體用戶留存率將會下降。但鑑於即時用戶留存率對平台未來發展的重要性，您能否重點談談即時用戶留存率的情況？今年的具體情況如何？

And if you could share in terms of Live customer growth, are you getting more from -- takeaways from competitors? Or is these DIY customers trading up to Live? Any color you could provide there would be helpful.

如果您能分享一下 Live 用戶成長方面的情況，例如您是從競爭對手那裡獲得更多經驗？還是這些 DIY 用戶正在升級到 Live？任何相關資訊都將對我們有所幫助。

Yes. Sure, Daniel. First of all, yes, you're right in what you heard us say earlier, which is we would expect retention to be down 1 point-plus. And we'll talk about it, of course, more at Investor Day. And it's really because of these pandemic-era filers that came in and have now left the categories.

是的，丹尼爾。首先，沒錯，你剛才聽到的我們說的是對的，我們預期留存率會下降1個百分點以上。當然，我們會在投資者日上詳細討論這個問題。這主要是因為疫情期間湧入的那些公司現在已經退出了這些類別。

Overall, we like the mix of what we've seen across our Live platform, and we'll share again more of the specifics as we get into Investor Day. But our retention and sort of existing customers coming back, we felt very good about what we expected and what we saw.

整體而言，我們對Live平台目前的表現感到滿意，稍後會在投資人日分享更多細節。但就用戶留存率和現有客戶的回訪率而言，我們對實際結果和預期都非常滿意。

I would say the second thing is it's a mix. It's a mix of both those that did taxes themselves the prior year that ultimately chose to upgrade to a sort of a Live platform because something changed in their life, inclusive of getting customers that were prior-year assisted in that. And remember, our -- really, our competition is those that go to mom-and-pop shops. It's the 88 million folks, where the majority of them will ultimately go to a local mom-and-pop shop to get their taxes done, and that's where we get a lot of the switchers also from those mom-and-pop shops.

第二點是，情況比較複雜。一部分人去年自己報稅，但後來因為生活發生了一些變化，最後選擇升級到線上報稅平台，這也包括去年接受過我們服務的客戶。記住，我們真正的競爭對手是那些去夫妻店報稅的人。這8800萬人口中，絕大多數最終都會去當地的夫妻店報稅，而我們許多轉投我們平台的客戶也正是來自這些夫妻店。

So we have a good mix of retention. Those that did taxes themselves last year and chose to use the Live platform because of a confidence question or some concern and then getting those that were prior assisted. And that's a mix we like, and that's a mix we believe will continue.

所以我們擁有良好的用戶留存率。既包括去年自行報稅的用戶，他們因為一些疑問或顧慮而選擇使用線上平台；也包括先前接受過我們協助的用戶。我們喜歡這種用戶組合，也相信這種組合會繼續保持下去。

Now it will be different as we take full service to use either in a further scale because we believe we'll accelerate full-service penetration at a much higher rate than even today. So that's the way I would have you think about it.

現在情況會有所不同，因為我們將進一步擴大全方位服務的使用規模，我們相信全方位服務的普及速度將遠超目前水準。這就是我希望你們考慮的方式。

Your next question comes from the line of Raimo Lenschow from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的雷莫·倫肖。

One question on Credit Karma. You kind of raised the guidance there, and that came after a quarter where we had a lot of turmoil in the financial services industry with the regional banks, et cetera. Can you talk a little bit about what you saw this quarter in terms of the extra headwinds that obviously played out there, but you're actually doing better than what you had guided previously?

關於Credit Karma，我有一個問題。你們上調了業績預期，而先前一個季度金融服務業，尤其是區域性銀行等，經歷了許多動盪。能否談談本季你們如何應對這些額外的不利因素，以及你們的實際業績是否優於先前的預期？

We're actually continuing to see strength based on our innovation in a couple of areas. One is in cards and in some parts driven by our Karma Guarantee, which is really unique to Credit Karma, where the certainty is very high for a member to get approved for what they are looking for because of the data and AI capabilities that we have.

事實上，我們在幾個領域的創新持續推動著我們的發展。其中之一是信用卡業務，部分成長得益於我們的「Karma Guarantee」保障計劃。這項計畫是Credit Karma獨有的，它利用我們擁有的數據和人工智慧技術，確保會員獲得所需貸款的審批通過率非常高。

The second is Credit Karma Money. And this is where, as I always have shared, we are building a consumer platform to be the destination for consumers with the integrations that we're doing with TurboTax and Credit Karma. And in essence, we saw a 45% increase in the number of TurboTax customers that chose to put their money on a Credit Karma Money account. And not only do we make some revenue on that, but over time, based on the higher frequency of the engagement that we can ultimately monetize even further, which were not in the numbers that I just mentioned.

第二個是 Credit Karma Money。正如我一直強調的，我們正在建立一個消費者平台，透過與 TurboTax 和 Credit Karma 的整合，使其成為消費者的首選目的地。事實上，我們看到選擇將資金存入 Credit Karma Money 帳戶的 TurboTax 用戶數量增加了 45%。我們不僅從中獲得了一些收入，而且隨著時間的推移，基於用戶參與度的提高，我們最終還能進一步實現更多盈利，而這些盈利並未包含在我剛才提到的數據中。

So really, it's across our innovation across cards and Credit Karma Money. That's why we saw the performance that we saw in the quarter. And then with 1 quarter left in the year, we, of course, have confidence to improve the guidance that we provided to what Michelle shared earlier.

所以，實際上，這要歸功於我們在信用卡和Credit Karma Money等各個領域的創新。這就是我們本季業績表現如此出色的原因。而且，今年還剩最後一個季度，我們當然有信心提高先前Michelle分享的業績預期。

Your next question comes from the line of Jackson Ader from MoffettNathanson.

你的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Jackson Ader 的一條線。

We saw the press release related to the IRS direct filing program, but I just thought maybe, Sasan, if we could hear what you're thinking are maybe the largest potential threat of that study that came out as part of the Inflation Reduction Act last year?

我們看到了與美國國稅局直接申報計劃相關的新聞稿，但我想，薩桑，或許我們可以聽聽你認為去年作為《通貨膨脹削減法案》一部分發布的那項研究可能帶來的最大潛在威脅是什麼？

Yes. Sure. Thank you for the question. I'll share a couple of perspectives that is really consistent with what we've talked about, but this is probably an important time to reiterate how we think about it. First and foremost, I can't vouch for their study. I can simply vouch for the facts that we have and the facts that are already in the market. And I think the first one is free tax software is already available to all consumers, and the awareness is actually quite high. So that's the first thing that I would just remind us of.

是的，當然。謝謝你的提問。我會分享一些與我們之前討論的內容基本一致的觀點，但現在或許有必要重申我們的想法。首先，我無法證實他們的研究結果。我只能保證我們掌握的事實以及市場上已有的事實。我認為第一個事實是，所有消費者都可以免費使用報稅軟體，而且他們的認知度相當高。所以，這是我首先要提醒大家的。

I think the second thing I would say is a reminder of this will yet be another free tax software in the marketplace. And I would just say, if you look at the last 4-plus years, there were several entrants, big entrants, into the free tax software. One was Credit Karma before we acquired them, where they have 100 million-plus customers, a trusted platform. And they entered into the market of providing free tax software with sort of very little to no impact.

我想說的第二點是，提醒大家市場上又將出現一款免費報稅軟體。回顧過去四年多的時間，免費報稅軟體市場湧現不少大型廠商，其中就包括我們收購前的Credit Karma。 Credit Karma擁有超過1億的用戶，是值得信賴的平台。然而，他們進入免費報稅軟體市場後，幾乎沒有產生任何影響。

And then another very large player that we sold Credit Karma tax to when we acquired Credit Karma. And you can, of course, observe what their results are. The point is that free tax software is already available, has been available to every consumer, and the awareness is extremely high. And so to have another sort of free tax software that's available is really immaterial is the way we think about it. And I'll remind us, by the way, it's actually not free. This is going to cost taxpayers billions of dollars, and so it's really not free.

然後，當我們收購Credit Karma時，又把Credit Karma Tax賣給了另一家規模非常大的公司。當然，你可以看看他們的業績如何。關鍵在於，免費的報稅軟體已經存在，而且面向所有消費者，認知度非常高。因此，我們認為再推出一款所謂的「免費報稅軟體」意義不大。順便提醒大家，它其實並非免費。這將耗費納稅人數十億美元，所以它真的不是免費的。

And I think the last thing I would say is really back to our vision. Our vision has been from what we declared 4 years ago to really become a consumer platform of choice, which means that beyond serving you to help you get your taxes done, we're delivering benefits through Credit Karma beyond tax, which means we can monetize beyond tax.

最後我想說的是，我們真正要回歸到我們的願景。我們的願景從四年前就已確立，那就是成為消費者首選的平台。這意味著，除了幫助您完成報稅之外，我們還透過 Credit Karma 提供稅務以外的福利，也就是說，我們可以在稅務之外實現盈利。

And really, out of the $35 billion TAM in tax, less than $5 billion is do-it-yourself. And really, our biggest opportunity is the other $30 billion we're going after, $20 billion of it being consumers that have somebody else get their taxes done and $10 billion being business tax. That's our future. That's our presence. That's where we are focused. And so net-net, when I think about the IRS study that was announced, I think it's a study. Facts friendly, you look at the facts in the marketplace. This is for us, this is really not a threat at all.

事實上，在350億美元的稅務市場中，只有不到50億美元是個人自行報稅的。我們最大的機會在於我們正在瞄準的另外300億美元，其中200億美元來自委託他人代繳稅款的消費者，100億美元來自企業稅。這才是我們的未來，我們的市場定位，也是我們關注的重點。所以，總而言之，當我想到美國國稅局公佈的那項研究時，我認為這只是一項研究。要理性看待市場，要看實際情況。對我們來說，這根本不算威脅。

Your next question comes from the line of Brad Sills from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的布拉德·西爾斯。

I wanted to ask a question around the TurboTax ARPU number. Such a nice increase that you're expecting this year at 12%. Could you help unpack that a little bit for us, please? Obviously, TurboTax Live was a key driver there. I guess, 2 questions. Were there other contributors here, premium mix shift or other items, perhaps?

我想問一個關於TurboTax ARPU（每位用戶平均收入）的問題。你們預計今年將成長12%，這個增幅相當可觀。能否請您詳細解釋一下？顯然，TurboTax Live是主要推動因素。我還有兩個問題：除了TurboTax Live之外，還有其他因素促成了這一增長嗎？例如付費用戶結構的變化或其他因素？

And then also on TT Live, what would you attribute the strength to? We've seen the ads this tax season: don't do your taxes, we'll do them for you. Is it just growing awareness of QuickBook -- sorry, of TurboTax as a solution to help with assisted? You've been at this for a number of years. So just kind of, I guess, what's working there?

那麼，在 TT Live 上，您認為其強勁勢頭源自於何處？我們在這個報稅季看到了他們的廣告：別自己報稅，我們幫你報。這只是因為人們對 QuickBooks（抱歉，應該是 TurboTax）作為輔助報稅解決方案的認知度不斷提高嗎？您從事這個行業已經很多年了。所以，我想問的是，是什麼讓這一切有效？

Yes. Sure, Brad. A couple of things. You actually nailed that our ARPU increase -- on top of ARPU increases in the last several years has come from TurboTax Live. It is a disruptive price offering. At the same time, it's got much higher ARPU and some of the more premium customers that chose -- they're either self-employed or they're investors and, of course, chose our premium SKU, which has a higher ARPU. So those are a couple of big drivers.

是的，布拉德。有幾點要說明。你確實說對了，我們ARPU（每用戶平均收入）的成長——在過去幾年ARPU持續成長的基礎上——主要來自TurboTax Live。它的價格極具競爭力。同時，它的ARPU也更高，而且一些選擇它的高端客戶——他們要么是自僱人士，要么是投資者——當然選擇了我們ARPU更高的優質SKU。所以，這些都是主要驅動因素。

I would tell you that the thing that I am sort of most excited about were the insights and the learnings that we got this year that really informs what we're going to double down on right now as we prepare for next year. One is full service. Full service is not an offering that is -- has product market fit. It's at scale. It's -- we got an 84 Net Promoter Score this year, which is the highest Net Promoter of anything across the company we have ever had.

我想說，我最興奮的是我們今年獲得的洞見和經驗，這些都真正指導著我們為明年做準備時要重點關注的領域。其中之一就是全方位服務。全方位服務並非指產品本身與市場契合度高，而是指規模化。我們今年的淨推薦值 (NPS) 達到了 84 分，這是我們公司有史以來最高的 NPS。

And you've heard me say it before around Credit Karma, well, this is even a higher Net Promoter. And that contributed to a small amount this year because we were really being thoughtful and careful about ensuring we get to -- we have the right product market fit and we can deliver for customers. Well, we surprised ourselves in terms of the product market fit, and we're going to be really intentional about doubling down on that next year.

你們之前也聽我說過，關於Credit Karma，它的淨推薦值（NPS）比較高。這雖然對今年的業績貢獻不大，但我們確實非常謹慎地確保產品與市場契合，並且能夠為客戶提供服務。我們在產品與市場契合度方面取得了超乎預期的成果，明年我們將更加努力地在這方面加大投入。

I think, I would say, the other thing, back to your question around learning, is we really learned where and how experts. And remember, experts are not just human. It's both our AI and generative AI capabilities and/or humans, depending on the need of the customer, engaging around the money experience, helping customers understand their refund, changes in their refund or their balance due and changes in their balance due.

我認為，回到你關於學習的問題，我們真正學習的是專家在哪裡以及如何提供幫助。記住，專家不只是人類。根據客戶的需求，我們的人工智慧和生成式人工智慧能力，以及/或人類，都會參與客戶的資金體驗中，幫助客戶了解他們的退款、退款金額的變化或應付餘額的變化。

We learned, coupled with our go-to-market strategy, how to really nail that benefit, and that's what drove the growth. But we believe we are capable of so much more growth as we look ahead based on the insights we got towards the end of the season, and that's what we'll be focused on as we head into next year.

我們結合市場推廣策略，學會如何真正突顯產品優勢，這正是推動成長的關鍵。但我們相信，基於賽季末獲得的洞察，我們還有更大的成長潛力，這也是我們明年工作的重點。

That's all the time we have today for questions, and this concludes our question-and-answer session. Would you like to close with any additional remarks?

今天的提問環節到此結束，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just to say thank you for all your great questions, and many thanks to our employees and customers for their amazing focus and being part of this storied franchise, and we look forward to seeing all of you at next earnings. Thank you, everybody.

是的。非常感謝大家提出的精彩問題，也衷心感謝我們的員工和顧客一直以來的專注和支持，感謝你們成為我們這個歷史悠久的品牌的一份子。我們期待在下次財報電話會議上與大家再次相聚。謝謝大家！

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。