直覺電腦 (INTU) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Abby, and I will be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Intuit's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好。我的名字是艾比，我將成為你們的會議主持人。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 Intuit 2023 財年第三季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Kim Watkins, Intuit's Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Watkins?

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給 Intuit 的投資者關係副總裁 Kim Watkins。沃特金斯女士？

Thanks, Abby. Good afternoon, and welcome to Intuit's Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Conference Call. I'm here with Intuit's CEO, Sasan Goodarzi; and Michelle Clatterbuck, our CFO.

謝謝，艾比。下午好，歡迎來到 Intuit 2023 財年第三季度電話會議。我和 Intuit 的首席執行官 Sasan Goodarzi 在一起；和我們的首席財務官 Michelle Clatterbuck。

Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that our remarks will include forward-looking statements. There are a number of factors that could cause Intuit's results to differ materially from our expectations. You can learn more about these risks in our press release we issued earlier this afternoon, our Form 10-K for fiscal 2022 and our other SEC filings. All of those documents are available on the Investor Relations page of Intuit's website at intuit.com. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們的言論將包含前瞻性陳述。有許多因素可能導致 Intuit 的結果與我們的預期存在重大差異。您可以在我們今天下午早些時候發布的新聞稿、我們的 2022 財年 10-K 表格和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的其他文件中了解更多關於這些風險的信息。所有這些文件都可以在 Intuit 網站 intuit.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Some of the numbers in these remarks are presented on a non-GAAP basis. We reconciled the comparable GAAP and non-GAAP numbers in today's press release. Unless otherwise noted, all growth rates refer to the current period versus the comparable prior year period, and the business metrics and associated growth rates refer to worldwide business metrics. A copy of our prepared remarks and supplemental financial information will be available on our website after this call ends.

這些評論中的一些數字是在非 GAAP 基礎上提供的。我們在今天的新聞稿中調整了可比較的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 數據。除非另有說明，否則所有增長率均指當前期間與可比的上一年期間相比，業務指標和相關增長率指的是全球業務指標。本次電話會議結束後，我們將在我們的網站上提供我們準備好的評論和補充財務信息的副本。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sasan.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Sasan。

Great. Thank you, Kim, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Third quarter revenue grew 7%, lower than our expectations, reflecting a unique tax season, while we exceeded operating income and earnings per share guidance. We continue to see strong growth in the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, which grew 21% in the quarter.

偉大的。謝謝 Kim，也感謝大家今天加入我們。第三季度收入增長 7%，低於我們的預期，反映了一個獨特的稅收季節，同時我們超出了營業收入和每股收益的指導。我們繼續看到小型企業和個體經營者群體的強勁增長，本季度增長了 21%。

Our overall performance this year demonstrates the strength of our platform and portfolio, including our ability to maintain earnings power in uncertain times, while investing in the most important areas to drive long-term, durable growth. We are raising our total company fiscal year revenue, operating income, earnings per share guidance. I'm very proud of our team as we now expect revenue and operating income to grow double digits and margins to expand even more than previously guided.

我們今年的整體表現證明了我們平台和產品組合的實力，包括我們在不確定時期保持盈利能力的能力，同時投資於最重要的領域以推動長期、持久的增長。我們正在上調公司財政年度總收入、營業收入、每股收益指引。我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪，因為我們現在預計收入和營業收入將增長兩位數，利潤率將比之前的指導增長更多。

Let's turn to tax. While this was a unique tax season, we're making good progress transforming the assisted segment with TurboTax Live. This year, we expect overall IRS returns to decline 2% through July 31, below our original expectations for total returns to grow 1%, which was more in line with historical trends. We also expect the DIY category share of total IRS returns to decline nearly 3/4 of a point of a point, also below our expectations. We believe the IRS and DIY category declines are driven by those who filed in order to receive pandemic-era stimulus and tax credit during the past several years but did not file taxes this season.

讓我們談談稅收。雖然這是一個獨特的稅收季節，但我們在通過 TurboTax Live 改造輔助部分方面取得了良好進展。今年，我們預計到 7 月 31 日，美國國稅局的整體回報率將下降 2%，低於我們最初對總回報率增長 1% 的預期，這更符合歷史趨勢。我們還預計 DIY 類別在美國國稅局總回報中的份額將下降近 3/4 個百分點，也低於我們的預期。我們認為 IRS 和 DIY 類別的下降是由那些在過去幾年中為了獲得大流行時期的刺激和稅收抵免而提交但本季度沒有報稅的人所推動的。

As a reminder, every point of IRS returns growth equals about 1 point of TurboTax revenue growth, and every point of DIY category share growth equals about 2.5 points of TurboTax revenue growth. The expected decline in total IRS returns and DIY category share equates to approximately $200 million of negative impact to revenue for TurboTax versus our original expectations. We expect our share of total IRS returns to be down approximately 80 basis points this fiscal year, primarily reflecting pandemic-era stimulus filers who did not file taxes this season.

提醒一下，每點 IRS 回報增長約等於 1 點 TurboTax 收入增長，每點 DIY 類別份額增長約等於 2.5 點 TurboTax 收入增長。 IRS 總回報和 DIY 類別份額的預期下降相當於對 TurboTax 收入的負面影響約為 2 億美元，與我們最初的預期相比。我們預計本財年我們在美國國稅局總回報中所佔的份額將下降約 80 個基點，這主要反映了本季度未報稅的大流行時代刺激申報者。

Each tax season has been unique since the pandemic began 4 years ago, although average annual trends over this period are far more in line with longer-term trends. Over this 4-year period, we expect total IRS returns to be up approximately 1%, the DIY category share of total returns to be up 1/4 of a point, and our share of total returns to be up approximately 20 basis points and average revenue per return to be up 9 points. These trends exclude users of the TurboTax Free File offering in prior year periods.

自 4 年前大流行開始以來，每個稅收季節都是獨一無二的，儘管這一時期的年平均趨勢更符合長期趨勢。在這 4 年期間，我們預計 IRS 總回報率將增長約 1%，DIY 類別佔總回報率的份額將增長 1/4 個百分點，我們佔總回報率的份額將增長約 20 個基點，並且每次回報的平均收入要上升 9 個百分點。這些趨勢不包括前一年期間使用 TurboTax Free File 產品的用戶。

Our strategy to transform the assisted category with TurboTax Live is working, given the growth we've experienced in an environment where IRS returns are declining. We expect TurboTax Live customers to grow 13% this year, with TurboTax Live revenue up 19% and total average revenue per return to grow 12%. While TurboTax Live has driven strong growth over the last 6 tax seasons, we still have an immense opportunity to penetrate and transform the assisted tax segment at an accelerated rate. This remains our top priority as we prepare for next year.

考慮到我們在美國國稅局回報率下降的環境中經歷的增長，我們通過 TurboTax Live 轉變輔助類別的戰略正在奏效。我們預計 TurboTax Live 客戶今年將增長 13%，TurboTax Live 收入將增長 19%，每次回報的平均總收入將增長 12%。雖然 TurboTax Live 在過去 6 個稅收季節推動了強勁增長，但我們仍然有巨大的機會以更快的速度滲透和改造輔助稅收部門。在我們為明年做準備時，這仍然是我們的首要任務。

Turning to Small Business. While we're not immune to the macro environment, our platform is resilient. Total online payment volume growth moderated 5 points from Q2, growing 20%. Despite this, the shift to digitization and the power of our Small Business platform resonate with customers as they look to grow their business and improve cash flow.

轉向小型企業。雖然我們不能免受宏觀環境的影響，但我們的平台具有彈性。總在線支付量增長較第二季度放緩 5 個百分點，增長 20%。儘管如此，向數字化的轉變和我們小型企業平台的強大功能引起了客戶的共鳴，因為他們希望發展業務並改善現金流。

We continue to see strength in the areas that have the greatest impact, including growth of our online mid-market customers contributing to strong subscription revenue and higher ARPC. In Q3, growth in both the number of companies running online payroll and the number of employees paid on our platform remained strong. Our Small Business platform, including QuickBooks and Mailchimp, remain critical to our customers' success.

我們繼續看到影響最大的領域的實力，包括我們的在線中端市場客戶的增長貢獻了強勁的訂閱收入和更高的 ARPC。在第三季度，運行在線工資單的公司數量和在我們平台上支付的員工數量都保持強勁增長。我們的小型企業平台，包括 QuickBooks 和 Mailchimp，對我們客戶的成功仍然至關重要。

Let me now step back and talk about our company game plan to win. Four years ago, we declared our strategy to become the global AI-driven expert platform and 5 Big Bets as the primary areas of focus to drive durable growth. We invested heavily in our data and AI capabilities to deliver accelerated innovation. Today, we have over 100 million customers on our platform and use 400,000 customer and financial attributes per small business and 55,000 tax and financial attributes per consumer to power 58 billion machine learning predictions per day.

現在讓我退後一步，談談我們公司取勝的遊戲計劃。四年前，我們宣布了成為全球人工智能驅動專家平台的戰略，並將 5 大賭注作為推動持久增長的主要重點領域。我們在數據和人工智能能力方面投入了大量資金，以加速創新。今天，我們的平台上有超過 1 億客戶，每個小企業使用 400,000 個客戶和財務屬性，每個消費者使用 55,000 個稅收和財務屬性，每天為 580 億次機器學習預測提供支持。

The acquisitions of Credit Karma and Mailchimp each contributed a rich and additive data set, which helped deliver a 360-degree view of our customers. The scale of our data is an important competitive advantage and building block for our existing and future innovations with AI. We are accelerating reimagining our customer experiences with generative AI capabilities, which we believe will be the driver of our long-term growth. Our platform capabilities are key to continued acceleration across all of our 5 Big Bets.

對 Credit Karma 和 Mailchimp 的收購各自貢獻了一個豐富的附加數據集，這有助於提供我們客戶的 360 度全方位視圖。我們的數據規模是一項重要的競爭優勢，也是我們現有和未來 AI 創新的基石。我們正在通過生成人工智能功能加速重新構想我們的客戶體驗，我們相信這將成為我們長期增長的驅動力。我們的平台能力是我們所有 5 大賭注持續加速的關鍵。

I'd like to highlight some examples of recent progress across these Big Bets. As a reminder, our Big Bets are: revolutionize speed to benefit, connect people to experts, unlock smart money decisions, be the center of small business growth and disrupt the small business mid-market.

我想強調這些大賭注最近取得進展的一些例子。提醒一下，我們的大賭注是：革新速度以獲益，將人們與專家聯繫起來，解鎖明智的資金決策，成為小型企業增長的中心並擾亂小型企業的中端市場。

Our first Big Bet is to revolutionize speed to benefit. This data and technology bet is foundational to everything that we do. We began investing in generative AI 2 years ago to accelerate our ability to fuel the success of consumers and small businesses. We've implemented generative AI in Mailchimp, powering the e-mail content generator, enabling customers to create faster e-mail campaigns based on industry, marketing intent and brand voice.

我們的第一個大賭注是徹底改變速度以獲益。這種數據和技術賭注是我們所做的一切的基礎。 2 年前，我們開始投資生成式 AI，以加快我們推動消費者和小型企業取得成功的能力。我們在 Mailchimp 中實施了生成式 AI，為電子郵件內容生成器提供支持，使客戶能夠根據行業、營銷意圖和品牌聲音創建更快的電子郵件活動。

We deployed large language models, which recognize, summarize and generate text in our virtual expert platform to automatically summarize calls, reduce call times by hundreds of thousands of hours per year and reduce work for experts while improving efficiency. Our strategic investment in data and AI over the last 4 years positions us to lead through this technological shift, and we look forward to sharing more in the coming months.

我們部署了大型語言模型，在我們的虛擬專家平台中識別、總結和生成文本，自動總結呼叫，每年減少數十萬小時的呼叫時間，在提高效率的同時減少專家的工作量。我們在過去 4 年中對數據和 AI 的戰略投資使我們能夠引領這一技術變革，我們期待在未來幾個月分享更多。

With our third Big Bet, our vision is for Credit Karma to become a comprehensive, self-driving financial platform that propels our members forward wherever they are on their financial journey. We are focused on growing Credit Karma Money, increasing member confidence to access financial products with Karma Guarantee, building out a richer experience for Prime members and becoming the financial platform of choice for consumers, with the seamless integration of Credit Karma and TurboTax.

通過我們的第三次大賭注，我們的願景是讓 Credit Karma 成為一個全面的、自動駕駛的金融平台，無論我們的會員在金融之旅中的何處，都能推動他們前進。通過 Credit Karma 和 TurboTax 的無縫集成，我們專注於發展 Credit Karma Money，提高會員使用 Karma Guarantee 獲取金融產品的信心，為 Prime 會員打造更豐富的體驗，並成為消費者的首選金融平台。

We're innovating across all verticals and continue to have confidence in our long-term revenue growth expectations of 20% to 25% despite near-term headwinds. I'll share a few examples. This season, we further streamlined the TurboTax filing experience into the Credit Karma app, and the number of customers using the experience to file their taxes was over 5x higher last year.

我們正在所有垂直領域進行創新，並繼續對我們 20% 至 25% 的長期收入增長預期充滿信心，儘管近期存在逆風。我將分享幾個例子。本季度，我們將 TurboTax 申報體驗進一步簡化為 Credit Karma 應用程序，使用該體驗申報稅款的客戶數量比去年高出 5 倍以上。

With Credit Karma Money, we're innovating to help members get faster access to cash and make financial progress. This year, we saw over 45% growth in the number of TurboTax online customers who received their Refund Advance in a Credit Karma Money account. This integration allowed approved members to get money in their hands in as little as 1 minute after the IRS accepted their return and drove increased debit card purchase activity, contributing to more than 100% increase in Credit Karma Money revenue during the quarter.

通過 Credit Karma Money，我們正在創新以幫助會員更快地獲得現金並取得財務進步。今年，我們看到在 Credit Karma Money 賬戶中收到退款預付款的 TurboTax 在線客戶數量增長了 45% 以上。這種整合使獲得批准的會員在 IRS 接受退貨後僅 1 分鐘內就可以拿到錢，並推動了借記卡購買活動的增加，使本季度 Credit Karma Money 收入增長了 100% 以上。

Members who use this offering show higher engagement on Credit Karma, which creates additional monetization opportunities over time. And with the Mint team now part of Credit Karma, we're building a new experience for members with prime credit scores, where Credit Karma is underpenetrated today. During the quarter, we began rolling out Net Worth, which helps Prime members better understand their wealth.

使用此產品的會員在 Credit Karma 上表現出更高的參與度，隨著時間的推移，這會創造更多的貨幣化機會。隨著 Mint 團隊現在成為 Credit Karma 的一部分，我們正在為擁有優質信用評分的會員打造全新的體驗，而 Credit Karma 目前在這些領域尚未普及。本季度，我們開始推出淨資產，幫助 Prime 會員更好地了解他們的財富。

Our fourth Big Bet is to become the center of small business growth by helping our customers get new customers, get paid fast, manage capital and pay employees with confidence in an omnichannel world. In Payroll, our U.S. QBO payroll customers grew double digits this quarter and the mix of online customers choosing our high-end offerings increased by over 1 point, driving higher ARPC. And in Payments, we continue to innovate to drive digitization from creating an estimate, to invoicing a customer, to getting paid.

我們的第四個大賭注是通過幫助我們的客戶獲得新客戶、快速獲得報酬、管理資本和在全渠道世界中充滿信心地支付員工工資，從而成為小型企業增長的中心。在薪資方面，我們的美國 QBO 薪資客戶本季度增長了兩位數，選擇我們高端產品的在線客戶組合增加了 1 個百分點以上，推動了更高的 ARPC。在支付方面，我們繼續創新以推動從創建估算到向客戶開具發票再到獲得付款的數字化。

Today, easier discovery, auto-enabled payments, instant deposits and get paid upfront are all helping drive adoption of our payments offering, leading to 20% total online payments volume growth this quarter. We're making significant progress digitizing B2B payments to accelerate and automate transactions between small businesses and ultimately improve their cash flow.

如今，更容易發現、自動支付、即時存款和預付款都在幫助推動我們支付產品的採用，導致本季度在線支付總量增長 20%。我們在 B2B 支付數字化方面取得了重大進展，以加速和自動化小型企業之間的交易，並最終改善他們的現金流。

We see a tremendous opportunity as 70% of B2B transactions are still completed with checks. And following our launch of the QuickBooks Business Network to millions of our QBO customers in January, we're piloting our own native bill pay solution and launched the initial beta of this functionality in QuickBooks earlier this month.

我們看到了巨大的機會，因為 70% 的 B2B 交易仍然通過支票完成。繼我們在 1 月份向數百萬 QBO 客戶推出 QuickBooks 商業網絡之後，我們正在試用我們自己的本地賬單支付解決方案，並在本月早些時候在 QuickBooks 中推出了此功能的初始測試版。

Turning to Mailchimp. We're well on our way to becoming the source of truth for our customers to help them grow and run their business. We have 3 acceleration priorities with Mailchimp: first, delivering on our vision of an end-to-end customer growth platform; second, disrupting the mid-market by developing a full marketing automation, CRM and e-commerce suite; and third, accelerating global growth with holistic go-to-market approach.

轉向 Mailchimp。我們正在努力成為客戶的真實來源，幫助他們發展和經營業務。我們對 Mailchimp 有 3 個加速優先事項：首先，實現我們對端到端客戶增長平台的願景；其次，通過開發完整的營銷自動化、CRM 和電子商務套件來擾亂中端市場；第三，通過全面的上市方法加速全球增長。

This quarter, we made great progress against these priorities. We're continuing to see better paid conversion, improving retention versus last quarter and stronger paid customer growth. This, along with higher revenue per customer, drove several point acceleration in revenue growth versus last quarter. Let me share some details around our progress.

本季度，我們在這些優先事項上取得了很大進展。與上一季度相比，我們繼續看到更好的付費轉化率、更高的保留率以及更強勁的付費客戶增長。這與更高的每位客戶收入一起推動收入增長比上一季度加快了幾個百分點。讓我分享一些關於我們進展的細節。

To help introduce new customers to Mailchimp and drive customer growth over time, we introduced 3 trials similar to what we offer in QBO. In early testing, this is already driving higher-pace conversion and a mix shift into our higher-end offerings. To drive stronger retention of mid-market customers, we continue to leverage our virtual expert platform to offer assisted onboarding, with the goal of guiding these customers to more advanced features and increasing awareness and usage.

為了幫助向 Mailchimp 介紹新客戶並隨著時間的推移推動客戶增長，我們推出了 3 項類似於我們在 QBO 中提供的試用。在早期測試中，這已經推動了更高速度的轉換和向我們高端產品的混合轉變。為了更好地留住中端市場客戶，我們繼續利用我們的虛擬專家平台提供輔助入職服務，目標是引導這些客戶使用更高級的功能並提高認知度和使用率。

This quarter, we saw more than a 7-point increase in high-value customers going through this onboarding process versus last quarter, which we expect to help drive stronger retention over time. To drive accelerated global growth and execute our refreshed international strategy, we're translating the product into multiple languages. Early results indicate this translation work is driving increased activation and ultimately can drive revenue growth.

本季度，與上一季度相比，我們看到通過此入職流程的高價值客戶增加了 7 個百分點以上，我們預計這將有助於隨著時間的推移提高保留率。為了推動加速全球增長並執行我們更新後的國際戰略，我們正在將產品翻譯成多種語言。早期結果表明，這項翻譯工作正在推動增加激活，並最終推動收入增長。

And our fifth Big Bet is to disrupt the small business mid-market, representing a TAM of 1.7 million customers, of which 700,000 are already in our franchise today. Online mid-market customer growth remains strong, and we're driving ARPC expansion as we serve these mid-market customers across our full ecosystem of services.

我們的第五個大賭注是顛覆小型企業中端市場，代表著 170 萬客戶的 TAM，其中 700,000 已經在我們的特許經營中。在線中端市場客戶增長依然強勁，我們正在推動 ARPC 擴展，因為我們在整個服務生態系統中為這些中端市場客戶提供服務。

Wrapping up, with our durable AI-driven expert platform strategy, we're innovating at a high velocity, using the power of our platform, modern technology capabilities, data sets and artificial intelligence to deliver new offerings at scale. This is helping us put more money in our customers' pockets, saving them time and ensuring complete confidence in every financial decision they make. We're well positioned to power prosperity for the people and communities that we serve as we enter this next technological shift.

最後，憑藉我們持久的人工智能驅動的專家平台戰略，我們正在高速創新，利用我們平台的力量、現代技術能力、數據集和人工智能來大規模提供新產品。這有助於我們將更多的錢放在客戶的口袋裡，節省他們的時間，並確保他們對做出的每一個財務決定充滿信心。當我們進入下一次技術變革時，我們處於有利地位，可以為我們所服務的人民和社區帶來繁榮。

Now let me hand it over to Michelle.

現在讓我把它交給米歇爾。

Thanks, Sasan. For the third quarter of fiscal 2023, we delivered revenue of $6 billion, GAAP operating income of $2.8 billion versus $2.4 billion last year, non-GAAP operating income of $3.4 billion versus $2.9 billion last year, GAAP diluted earnings per share of $7.38 versus $6.28 a year ago and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $8.92 versus $7.65 last year.

謝謝，薩桑。在 2023 財年第三季度，我們實現了 60 億美元的收入，GAAP 營業收入為 28 億美元，去年為 24 億美元，非 GAAP 營業收入為 34 億美元，去年為 29 億美元，GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 7.38 美元，去年為 6.28 美元一年前，非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 8.92 美元，而去年為 7.65 美元。

Turning to the business segments. Consumer Group revenue of $3.3 billion grew 3% in Q3. There are 4 primary drivers of our Consumer business. This data reflects our expectations through July 31, 2023, versus the prior year through July 31, 2022. The first is the total number of returns filed with the IRS. We expect total returns to decline 2% this year. This is below our original expectations of up 1% as overall industry growth continues to reflect the multiyear impact from the pandemic.

轉向業務部門。第三季度消費者集團收入為 33 億美元，增長 3%。我們的消費者業務有 4 個主要驅動力。該數據反映了我們截至 2023 年 7 月 31 日的預期，而上一年截至 2022 年 7 月 31 日。首先是向美國國稅局提交的申報表總數。我們預計今年的總回報率將下降 2%。這低於我們最初預期的增長 1%，因為整個行業的增長繼續反映出這一流行病的多年影響。

The second is the percentage of those returns filed using do-it-yourself software. We expect the DIY category of total IRS returns to be down nearly 3/4 of a point by the end of the fiscal year, below our original expectations.

第二個是使用自己動手的軟件提交的回報的百分比。我們預計到本財年末，美國國稅局總回報的 DIY 類別將下降近 3/4 個百分點，低於我們最初的預期。

The third is our share. We expect our share of total IRS returns to decline by approximately 80 basis points this fiscal year, primarily reflecting pandemic-era stimulus filers who did not file this season. As a result of these same industry dynamics, we expect our retention to decline this year.

第三是我們的份額。我們預計本財年我們在美國國稅局總回報中所佔的份額將下降約 80 個基點，這主要反映了本季度未提交的大流行時期刺激申報者。由於這些相同的行業動態，我們預計今年我們的保留率會下降。

The fourth is average revenue per return, which we expect to increase 12% this year, as we expect TurboTax Live customers to grow 13%, with TurboTax Live revenue up 19%. Historically, each point of total IRS returns growth corresponds to approximately 1 point of revenue growth for the Consumer Group, and each point of DIY category share growth corresponds to approximately 2.5 points of revenue growth for the Consumer Group.

第四個是每次退貨的平均收入，我們預計今年將增長 12%，因為我們預計 TurboTax Live 客戶將增長 13%，而 TurboTax Live 收入將增長 19%。從歷史上看，美國國稅局總回報增長的每個點對應於消費者集團約 1 個點的收入增長，DIY 類別份額增長的每個點對應於消費者集團約 2.5 個點的收入增長。

Using these historical sensitivities, the expected decline in total IRS returns and DIY category share equates to an approximate $200 million negative impact to revenue for the Consumer Group versus our original expectations. As a result of this expected decline in IRS returns, we anticipate total customers to decline 5% this year.

使用這些歷史敏感性，與我們最初的預期相比，美國國稅局總回報和 DIY 類別份額的預期下降相當於對消費者集團的收入產生約 2 億美元的負面影響。由於美國國稅局回報率預期下降，我們預計今年客戶總數將下降 5%。

We expect TurboTax Online paying customers to decline 1% this year and a total of over 11 million customers, who pay us nothing, down from 13 million last year. We now expect full year Consumer Group revenue growth of 5% to 6% versus our prior guidance of 9% to 10%, reflecting the expected declines in IRS returns and DIY category share I mentioned earlier.

我們預計今年 TurboTax Online 的付費客戶將下降 1%，並且不向我們支付任何費用的客戶總數將超過 1100 萬，低於去年的 1300 萬。我們現在預計全年消費者集團收入增長 5% 至 6%，而我們之前的預期為 9% 至 10%，反映了我之前提到的 IRS 回報和 DIY 類別份額的預期下降。

Looking back over the last 4 years, including our updated guidance for this fiscal year, we expect our revenue to have grown over 10% on average annually, in line with our long-term expectations. We continue to anticipate Consumer Group revenue growth of 8% to 12% long term.

回顧過去 4 年，包括我們對本財年的最新指引，我們預計我們的收入每年平均增長 10% 以上，這符合我們的長期預期。我們繼續預計消費者集團的收入長期增長 8% 至 12%。

Turning to the ProTax Group. Revenue declined 5% in Q3. For the full year, we now expect ProTax revenue growth of 2% to 3%.

轉向 ProTax 集團。第三季度收入下降 5%。對於全年，我們現在預計 ProTax 收入增長 2% 至 3%。

In the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, revenue grew 21% during the quarter and Online Ecosystem revenue grew 23%. With the goal of being the source of truth for small businesses, our strategic focus within the Small Business and Self-Employed Group is threefold: grow the core, connect the ecosystem and expand globally.

在小型企業和個體經營者群體中，本季度收入增長了 21%，在線生態系統收入增長了 23%。我們的目標是成為小型企業的真相之源，我們在小型企業和個體經營者組的戰略重點有三個：發展核心、連接生態系統和全球擴張。

First, we continue to focus on growing the core. QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue grew 25% in Q3, driven mainly by customer growth, higher effective prices and mix shift. Second, we continue to focus on connecting the ecosystem. Online Services revenue, which includes Mailchimp, Payroll, Payments, Capital and Time Tracking, grew 21% in Q3.

首先，我們繼續專注於發展核心。 QuickBooks Online Accounting 收入在第三季度增長了 25%，主要受客戶增長、更高的有效價格和混合轉變的推動。其次，我們繼續專注於連接生態系統。包括 Mailchimp、工資單、支付、資本和時間跟踪在內的在線服務收入在第三季度增長了 21%。

Mailchimp revenue growth in the quarter accelerated several points from low teens growth last quarter. Growth was driven by higher effective prices and customer growth. Within Payroll, revenue growth in the quarter reflects an increase in Payroll customers and a mix shift to higher-end offerings. Within Payments, revenue growth reflects ongoing customer growth as more customers adopt our payment offerings to manage their cash flow and an increase in total payment volume per customer.

Mailchimp 在本季度的收入增長比上一季度的低青少年增長快了幾個百分點。增長是由更高的有效價格和客戶增長推動的。在 Payroll 中，本季度的收入增長反映了 Payroll 客戶的增加以及向更高端產品的組合轉變。在支付方面，收入增長反映了客戶的持續增長，因為越來越多的客戶採用我們的支付產品來管理他們的現金流，並且每個客戶的總支付量也在增加。

Third, we continue to make progress expanding globally by executing our refreshed international strategy, which includes leading with Mailchimp. On a constant currency basis, total international Online Ecosystem revenue grew 12% in Q3, Desktop Ecosystem revenue grew 16% in the third quarter and QuickBooks Desktop Enterprise revenue grew approximately 20%.

第三，我們通過執行更新的國際戰略（包括以 Mailchimp 為主導）繼續在全球擴張方面取得進展。按固定匯率計算，國際在線生態系統總收入在第三季度增長了 12%，桌面生態系統收入在第三季度增長了 16%，而 QuickBooks 桌面企業版收入增長了約 20%。

We're just over halfway through a 3-year transition to a subscription model for our desktop accounting solutions, making this revenue more predictable. We also raised our desktop prices for several products last September to price for value. Looking ahead, we expect continued strong desktop ecosystem revenue growth next quarter and as we complete the remaining part of the 3-year transition.

我們的桌面會計解決方案向訂閱模式過渡的 3 年時間剛剛過半，這使得收入更可預測。去年 9 月，我們還提高了幾種產品的台式機價格，以物有所值。展望未來，我們預計下個季度桌面生態系統收入將繼續強勁增長，並完成 3 年過渡期的剩餘部分。

We will continue to build out our Online Ecosystem and help our desktop customers migrate seamlessly to our online offerings when they're ready. We continue to expect the Online Ecosystem to be our growth catalyst longer term. As a result of the strong growth we're seeing in the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, we are raising our full year segment revenue growth guidance to 24% from 19% to 20%.

我們將繼續構建我們的在線生態系統，並幫助我們的桌面客戶在準備就緒時無縫遷移到我們的在線產品。我們繼續期望在線生態系統成為我們長期增長的催化劑。由於我們在小型企業和個體經營者群體中看到的強勁增長，我們將全年部門收入增長預期從 19% 提高到 24% 至 20%。

Credit Karma delivered revenue of $410 million in Q3, down 12%. As a reminder, Credit Karma represented 14% of our total revenue in fiscal 2022. On a product basis, the decline was driven primarily by headwinds in personal loans, home loans, auto loans and auto insurance, partially offset by growth in Credit Karma Money and credit cards. We're seeing more stability across our core verticals.

Credit Karma 在第三季度實現了 4.1 億美元的收入，下降了 12%。提醒一下，Credit Karma 占我們 2022 財年總收入的 14%。就產品而言，下降的主要原因是個人貸款、住房貸款、汽車貸款和汽車保險的逆風，部分被 Credit Karma Money 的增長所抵消和信用卡。我們看到我們的核心垂直領域更加穩定。

In both credit cards and personal loans, we continue to see some partners tighten eligibility, while some expanded eligibility during the quarter. In personal loans, we continue to see partners facing funding constraints. We added more partners to the platform to help diversify our partner base. However, we continue to expect personal loan revenue to decline this year after a very strong growth in fiscal 2022.

在信用卡和個人貸款方面，我們繼續看到一些合作夥伴收緊資格，而一些合作夥伴在本季度擴大了資格。在個人貸款方面，我們繼續看到合作夥伴面臨資金限制。我們在平台上增加了更多合作夥伴，以幫助我們的合作夥伴基礎多樣化。然而，我們繼續預計，在 2022 財年實現非常強勁的增長之後，今年個人貸款收入將下降。

We're updating our full year Credit Karma revenue growth guidance to a decline of 11% from a decline of 15% to 10%.

我們將全年 Credit Karma 收入增長指導更新為下降 11%，從下降 15% 到 10%。

Our financial principles guide our decisions remain our long-term commitment and are unchanged. We finished the quarter with approximately $4.3 billion in cash and investments and $6.6 billion in debt on our balance sheet. We repurchased $483 million of stock during the third quarter. Depending on market conditions and other factors, our aim is to be in the market each quarter.

我們的財務原則指導我們的決定仍然是我們的長期承諾，並且不會改變。本季度結束時，我們的資產負債表上有大約 43 億美元的現金和投資以及 66 億美元的債務。我們在第三季度回購了 4.83 億美元的股票。根據市場狀況和其他因素，我們的目標是每個季度都進入市場。

The Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.78 per share payable July 18, 2023. This represents a 15% increase versus last year.

董事會批准於 2023 年 7 月 18 日支付每股 0.78 美元的季度股息。這比去年增加了 15%。

As I shared consistently in the past, we have an operating system we use to run the company, and this includes a proven playbook for operating in both good and difficult economic times. Our first priority is to do the right thing for customers, giving them access to the tools and offerings they need most. We manage for the short and long term and control discretionary spend to deliver strong results while investing in what is most important for future growth. The scale of our platform, along with our rich data, gives us the unique ability to see leading indicators that allow us to be forward-looking and adjust quickly.

正如我過去一貫分享的那樣，我們有一個我們用來運營公司的操作系統，其中包括一個在經濟繁榮和困難時期都能運作的行之有效的劇本。我們的首要任務是為客戶做正確的事，讓他們能夠獲得他們最需要的工具和產品。我們管理短期和長期並控制可自由支配的支出以取得強勁的成果，同時投資於對未來增長最重要的事物。我們平台的規模以及我們豐富的數據使我們能夠看到領先指標，使我們能夠具有前瞻性並迅速做出調整。

I'm proud of the team for how effectively we have used our playbook to invest in the most important growth drivers to position Intuit for the future while maintaining earnings power this year despite the macro impact we are experiencing. We will continue to accelerate our innovation, and our goal remains for Intuit to emerge from this period of macro uncertainty in a position of strength.

我為團隊感到自豪，因為儘管我們正在經歷宏觀影響，但我們如何有效地利用我們的劇本投資於最重要的增長動力，以定位 Intuit 的未來，同時保持今年的盈利能力。我們將繼續加速創新，我們的目標仍然是讓 Intuit 擺脫這段宏觀不確定性時期的強勢地位。

Moving on to guidance. We are increasing our fiscal 2023 guidance. This includes total company revenue growth of 12% to 13%, up from prior guidance of 10% to 12% growth; GAAP operating income growth of 19% to 20%, up from prior guidance of 9% to 13% growth; non-GAAP operating income growth of 21%, up from prior guidance of 17% to 19% growth; GAAP diluted earnings per share to grow 7% to 8%, up from prior guidance of a decline of approximately 5% to 1%; and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share growth of 20%, up from prior guidance of 15% to 17% growth. Our guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 includes revenue growth of 9% to 10%, GAAP loss per share of $0.34 to $0.29 and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.43 to $1.48.

繼續指導。我們正在增加 2023 財年的指導。這包括公司總收入增長 12% 至 13%，高於之前 10% 至 12% 的增長預期； GAAP 營業收入增長 19% 至 20%，高於此前預期的 9% 至 13% 增長；非 GAAP 營業收入增長 21%，高於此前預期的 17% 至 19% 增長； GAAP 攤薄後每股收益增長 7% 至 8%，而之前的指引為下降約 5% 至 1%；非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益增長 20%，高於之前指導的 15% 至 17% 的增長。我們對 2023 財年第四季度的指引包括收入增長 9% 至 10%，GAAP 每股虧損 0.34 美元至 0.29 美元，非 GAAP 每股收益 1.43 美元至 1.48 美元。

We expect a significant increase in our cash tax payments related to fiscal 2023 as a result of the tax law changes that require capitalization of certain R&D costs. With the recent IRS disaster area tax relief, we expect to pay approximately $700 million related to fiscal 2023 in Q1 of fiscal 2024. You can find our full fiscal 2023 and Q4 guidance details in our press release and on our fact sheet.

由於稅法的變化要求將某些研發成本資本化，我們預計與 2023 財年相關的現金稅款將大幅增加。憑藉最近的 IRS 災區稅收減免，我們預計將在 2024 財年第一季度支付與 2023 財年相關的大約 7 億美元。您可以在我們的新聞稿和我們的情況說明書中找到我們完整的 2023 財年和第四季度指導細節。

And with that, I'll turn it back over to Sasan.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給 Sasan。

Excellent. Thank you, Michelle. I know you'll be with us for another couple of months, but since this is your last earnings call, I wanted to express my sincere appreciation for all that you've contributed to Intuit over the last 20 years. You have made me, my leadership team and the entire company better, and I am forever grateful.

出色的。謝謝你，米歇爾。我知道你還會和我們一起待幾個月，但由於這是你最後一次財報電話會議，我想對你在過去 20 年中為 Intuit 做出的貢獻表示衷心的感謝。你讓我、我的領導團隊和整個公司變得更好，我永遠感激不盡。

Wrapping up, we feel confident in our AI-driven expert platform strategy and our 5 Big Bets and in an uncertain macro (inaudible) mission-critical than ever to our customers.

總而言之，我們對我們的人工智能驅動的專家平台戰略和我們的 5 大賭注以及對我們客戶來說比以往任何時候都更加不確定的宏觀（聽不清）關鍵任務充滿信心。

Let's now open it up to your questions.

現在讓我們開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Brad Zelnick from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brad Zelnick。

Michelle, congrats on a phenomenal run. We will miss you next quarter, for sure, on the earnings call. I've got one for Sasan and maybe let me sneak one in for Michelle, especially since it's her last call.

米歇爾，祝賀你取得了非凡的成績。我們肯定會在下個季度的財報電話會議上想念你。我有一個給 Sasan 的，也許讓我偷偷給 Michelle 一個，尤其是因為這是她最後一次打電話。

Sasan, how should we think about your Big Bet in helping customers overcome their lack of confidence by connecting them to live experts in a world where generative AI is advancing at breakneck speed? Because I think you spoke about how you're using generative AI to deliver the live platform. But how is Intuit positioned in a world where LLMs may be able to deliver human-like guidance and interaction?

Sasan，在生成人工智能以極快的速度發展的世界中，我們應該如何看待你的大賭注，通過將客戶與現場專家聯繫起來，幫助他們克服信心不足的問題？因為我認為您談到瞭如何使用生成式人工智能來交付直播平台。但是，在法學碩士可能能夠提供類似人類的指導和互動的世界中，Intuit 是如何定位的呢？

And maybe for you, Michelle, your Consumer segment operating margin was consistent with last year despite the pressure on the top line, for all the reasons that you've mentioned. Just curious, how much visibility that you might have had into how tax would play out, and if you scaled back investment at all, perhaps even marketing dollars, into the end of the season?

也許對你來說，米歇爾，你的消費者部門營業利潤率與去年一致，儘管頂線有壓力，因為你提到的所有原因。只是好奇，你對稅收的影響有多大了解，如果你在賽季末縮減投資，甚至可能縮減營銷費用？

Great. Brad, thank you so much for your question. And I heard that I fell off when I was reading the last part of the script. So if I have bad connection, I will switch phones and hop back to make sure I answer your question. But let me start with the question that you asked. First of all, I would take us back to what we declared 4 years ago.

偉大的。布拉德，非常感謝你的問題。我聽說我在讀劇本的最後一部分時摔倒了。所以如果我的網絡連接不好，我會換手機然後跳回來確保我回答你的問題。但讓我從你提出的問題開始。首先，我要回顧一下我們 4 年前宣布的內容。

As you know, I've been on the record 4-plus years ago to say that I believe, and we believe as a company, that artificial intelligence is going to ignite global growth. And I believe that it's the biggest thing next to what we've experienced over time with electricity and the Internet. It's that big, and it's that critical of a platform of innovation, which is why data and AI have been core to our investments in the last 4-plus years. And with that as context, it's why we've been investing specifically in machine learning, knowledge engineering, natural language processing. And several years ago, we really started accelerating our investments in generative AI.

如你所知，我在 4 年多前公開表示，我相信，作為一家公司，我們相信人工智能將點燃全球增長。而且我相信這是我們隨著時間的推移在電力和互聯網方面所經歷的最重要的事情。它有那麼大，而且對創新平台至關重要，這就是為什麼數據和人工智能在過去 4 年多的時間裡一直是我們投資的核心。以此為背景，這就是為什麼我們一直專門投資於機器學習、知識工程和自然語言處理。幾年前，我們真正開始加速對生成人工智能的投資。

And if I take it back to your question around confidence, when we talked about solving the biggest unsaid problem that customers have, which is around confidence, it is really about solving it by helping them feel confident in their decisions. And it doesn't necessarily always mean people. And in fact, if you look at our interactions today across all of our platforms, a large number of our interactions is actually -- are machines that are solving the customers' largest problems.

如果我回到你關於信心的問題，當我們談到解決客戶所面臨的最大的未提及問題時，即圍繞信心，這實際上是通過幫助他們對自己的決定充滿信心來解決這個問題。它並不一定總是指人。事實上，如果你看看我們今天在所有平台上的互動，我們的大量互動實際上是——解決客戶最大問題的機器。

The reason we are so excited about AI from 4-plus years ago is that you couple our data, which is a 360 view of the customer, it's actually where Credit Karma and Mailchimp has played such an important role to add to our rich data set. You couple that with the investments in AI and now with generative AI, we can actually accelerate penetrating nonconsumption. And this is across every customer that we serve, whether it's Consumers, across Credit Karma, whether it's Tax, whether it's Small Business, we have an incredible opportunity to accelerate on making things more easier, more digestible and more confident and inspiring for our customers.

4 多年前我們對 AI 如此興奮的原因是你將我們的數據結合起來，這是客戶的 360 度視圖，這實際上是 Credit Karma 和 Mailchimp 在添加到我們豐富的數據集方面發揮瞭如此重要的作用.你將其與對人工智能的投資相結合，現在與生成人工智能相結合，我們實際上可以加速滲透非消費。這涉及到我們服務的每一位客戶，無論是消費者，Credit Karma，無論是稅收，還是小型企業，我們都有一個難以置信的機會來加速讓我們的客戶更容易、更容易消化、更有信心和鼓舞人心.

And in fact, it's generative AI that gives us the ability to do things that we could never imagine possible because of the data that we have. So for us, we saw this as an accelerant several years ago. It's why we accelerated our investments, and it's why we're so excited about the future because of the large language models, coupled with AI, coupled with machine learning and the investments that we've made, we believe that we can actually accelerate our innovation as we look ahead. And hopefully, I was loud and clear.

事實上，正是生成式 AI 讓我們能夠做一些我們無法想像的事情，因為我們擁有的數據。所以對我們來說，幾年前我們將其視為一種促進劑。這就是我們加速投資的原因，也是我們對未來如此興奮的原因，因為大型語言模型、人工智能、機器學習和我們所做的投資，我們相信我們實際上可以加速我們的創新，因為我們展望未來。希望我的聲音響亮而清晰。

Yes. That was good. And Brad, first off, thank you for the kind words. Your question around our ability to maintain the earnings power within CG really is a focus for us as a whole company, and it started last year when we were going through our 3- and 1-year planning process. We assumed that there would be economic uncertainty this year. And so as we were going through the process, we made sure that we had funded those things that were most important to delivering for customers and being able to drive our revenue growth.

是的。那很好。布拉德，首先，謝謝你的客氣話。你關於我們在 CG 內部維持盈利能力的能力的問題確實是我們整個公司關注的焦點，它從去年開始，當時我們正在經歷 3 年和 1 年的規劃過程。我們假設今年會有經濟不確定性。因此，在我們經歷這個過程時，我們確保我們已經為那些對為客戶提供最重要的東西並能夠推動我們的收入增長提供了資金。

And then we were -- made a list of the levers that we had that we could pull as we went throughout the year to be able to maintain our earnings power. And those are some of the discretionary things we had, which were -- whether it's travel or advertising or moderating, hiring. And so our lower-tax units also this year did result in lower expenses for that segment, specifically in customer success. But really, it's about us looking at maintaining not CG margins, but really, at the company level, and it started last year in planning.

然後我們 - 列出了我們在整個一年中可以拉動的槓桿，以保持我們的盈利能力。這些是我們擁有的一些可自由支配的事情，無論是旅行、廣告還是主持、招聘。因此，今年我們的低稅單位也確實導致該部門的支出降低，特別是在客戶成功方面。但實際上，這是關於我們考慮維持的不是 CG 利潤率，而是實際上是在公司層面，它從去年開始規劃。

And your next question comes from the line of Kash Rangan from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Kash Rangan。

Goodbye to you, Michelle. We'll miss you. Question for Sasan and the team. Sasan, in order to get back to the targets of 8% to 12% longer-term Consumer, you're going to have to reaccelerate the Tax business. So if we can go back to the basics from the old days, how does it -- do you plan to grow the category? And how do you gain share of that category? That would be great.

再見了，米歇爾。我們會想念你的。 Sasan 和團隊的問題。 Sasan，為了回到 8% 到 12% 的長期消費者的目標，你將不得不重新加速稅收業務。因此，如果我們可以回到過去的基礎知識，它是如何——你打算增加這個類別嗎？您如何獲得該類別的份額？那太好了。

And also as it pertains to generative AI, does this open up more opportunities netted against maybe potentially new competitive entrants? Because there is a -- there are thesis, which I'm sure you will have a different view on, that it actually makes it easier to file for taxes. Brad was talking about that -- Brad Zelnick earlier. So does it expand the opportunity set, at the same time attracting new competition? Or how do we think about how it nets out for you guys?

而且由於它與生成人工智能有關，這是否會帶來更多機會來對抗潛在的新競爭者？因為有一個論點，我相信你會有不同的看法，它實際上使報稅變得更容易。 Brad 之前談到過這個——Brad Zelnick。那麼它是否擴大了機會集，同時吸引了新的競爭？或者我們如何考慮它如何為你們帶來收益？

Yes. Thank you for the question, Kash. So a couple of things I would start with. I'll take your question around reaccelerating revenue growth. First of all, if I step back and look at the $200 million of impact that we experienced this year because of the lower number of returns and based on all the analysis that we've done, it's really the pandemic-era filers that came in to get access to their stimulus into their tax credits. And those have, based on our own analysis, have really all now left the category.

是的。謝謝你的問題，卡什。所以我將從幾件事開始。我會回答你關於重新加速收入增長的問題。首先，如果我退後一步，看看我們今年因退貨數量減少而遭受的 2 億美元的影響，並且根據我們所做的所有分析，這確實是大流行時期的申報者帶來的影響將他們的刺激措施用於他們的稅收抵免。根據我們自己的分析，那些人現在真的都離開了這個類別。

One, we believe we'll get to sort of a more normal environment. That is really what drove the performance -- the lower performance than we expected this year. The second thing, to get to your question around reacceleration, this is where I feel very good about the performance in an environment where there were lower returns with our TurboTax Live business.

第一，我們相信我們會進入一個更正常的環境。這才是推動業績的真正原因——今年的業績低於我們的預期。第二件事，關於再加速的問題，這是我對我們的 TurboTax Live 業務回報率較低的環境中的表現感到非常滿意的地方。

If you think about it, this is now $1 billion-plus business growing 19%. And I believe, in the next several years, this will actually be the largest part of the TurboTax business. And it's really in context of getting after the $30 billion of TAM, that is consumers that go to an assisted offering to get their taxes done or businesses that get their business tax done.

如果你仔細想想，現在這是一個超過 10 億美元的業務，增長了 19%。我相信，在接下來的幾年裡，這實際上將成為 TurboTax 業務的最大部分。這實際上是在追求 300 億美元的 TAM 的背景下，即消費者尋求輔助產品來完成他們的稅收或企業完成他們的營業稅。

And we believe, based on what we learned this year with our full-service offering, that we have an enormous chance to be able to really penetrate at a much more accelerated rate as we look ahead, and therefore, very confident in not only our performance this year, if you exclude the lower number of returns, but also the green sheets that we saw going into next year, inclusive of the fact that we had 5 extra growth in the Credit Karma platform, and we learned a number of things that we're going to double down on going into next year.

我們相信，根據我們今年從我們的全方位服務產品中學到的知識，我們有巨大的機會能夠在我們展望未來時以更快的速度真正滲透，因此，不僅對我們的今年的表現，如果你排除較低的回報數量，但也排除了我們明年看到的綠表，包括我們在 Credit Karma 平台上有 5 個額外增長的事實，我們學到了很多東西我們將在明年加倍努力。

And let me couple that with your second question around AI. Listen, I would say, [leading] the ones 4-plus years ago, that said, and we're on the record that we believe that AI will absolutely be disruptive. And it's why we made investments in data because AI, particularly generative AI, is really meaningless without data. And so with the investments that we've made in having a 360 view of data for consumers and small businesses, we actually kind of see it as an incredible accelerant.

讓我將其與您關於 AI 的第二個問題結合起來。聽著，我會說，[領導] 4 多年前的那些，也就是說，我們公開表示我們相信人工智能絕對會具有破壞性。這就是我們對數據進行投資的原因，因為沒有數據，人工智能，尤其是生成式人工智能，真的毫無意義。因此，通過我們在為消費者和小型企業提供 360 度數據視圖方面所做的投資，我們實際上將其視為一種令人難以置信的促進劑。

And I'll just remind us of -- we often talk about we have a $300 billion TAM with 5% penetration. And most of our customers use Excel, Google Sheets, Shoeboxes, whether it's a small business or a consumer, and manage their life to manage their business, or they go have a bookkeeper help them run their business. And the reason it's 5% because it all comes down to confidence.

我只是提醒我們——我們經常談論我們擁有 3000 億美元的 TAM，滲透率為 5%。我們的大多數客戶都使用 Excel、Google 表格、鞋盒，無論是小型企業還是消費者，管理他們的生活來管理他們的業務，或者他們會請簿記員幫助他們經營業務。之所以是 5%，是因為這一切都歸結為信心。

So we're actually able to see our investments in the last 4-plus years in data and AI with what we are now investing in with generative AI. We, for us, think it's going to accelerate because we have incredible scale. We have data scale, AI scale, customer scale, and we have sort of rich data sets that is really undisputed, which means we can do things for customers that is hard for anybody else to do. So we actually see it as an accelerant, and we're excited about the possibilities given the proof points that we've seen and given the investments that we are currently making. So that's the way we think about it.

因此，我們實際上能夠看到我們在過去 4 年多的時間裡在數據和 AI 方面的投資，以及我們現在在生成 AI 方面的投資。我們，對我們來說，認為它會加速，因為我們擁有令人難以置信的規模。我們擁有數據規模、人工智能規模、客戶規模，我們擁有真正無可爭議的豐富數據集，這意味著我們可以為客戶做其他人難以做到的事情。因此，我們實際上將其視為一種促進劑，鑑於我們已經看到的證據和我們目前正在進行的投資，我們對可能性感到興奮。這就是我們的思考方式。

The next question comes from the line of Kirk Materne from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Kirk Materne。

Congrats, Sasan. Michelle, good luck on your next endeavor. I guess, Sasan, can you just talk about the state of the Small Business? There's a lot of debate on that right now. Obviously, you all had a nice quarter in SBSE. Can you just talk about what you're seeing there in terms of the different verticals you play in, and frankly, the ability for you all to upsell some of your offerings like Payroll, Payments?

恭喜，薩桑。米歇爾，祝你下一次努力好運。我想，Sasan，你能談談小企業的狀況嗎？目前對此有很多爭論。顯然，你們在 SBSE 度過了一個愉快的季度。你能談談你在不同的垂直領域看到的東西嗎，坦率地說，你們有能力追加銷售你的一些產品，比如工資單、支付？

Yes. Yes, sure. Let me frame my answer in 2 dimensions. One, what we see across all small businesses on our platform and off of our platform. There's a couple of things that we see. One is there is an impact to small businesses revenues. They're still growing. It depends on the sector, but in aggregate, they're -- what we see is that they are still growing. They also -- depending on the sector they serve, they have profit pressures. So if they're in real estate or if they're in lending, they certainly have more profit pressure than those that don't serve those sectors.

是的。是的，當然。讓我在二維中構建我的答案。第一，我們在平台上和平台外看到的所有小型企業。我們看到了幾件事。一是對小企業的收入有影響。他們還在成長。這取決於行業，但總的來說，它們——我們看到的是它們仍在增長。他們還——根據他們服務的部門，他們有利潤壓力。因此，如果他們從事房地產或貸款業務，他們肯定比那些不服務於這些行業的人面臨更大的利潤壓力。

We also see that customers -- we put them in the bucket of the older, more tenured customers, 70% of those customers actually have more cash reserves than they did pre-pandemic. It's more of the younger, newer businesses that have started since the pandemic that generally they have less cash reserves than maybe the (inaudible) sort of the state of the small businesses. They feel the impact and the pressure of the environment from a consumer spending standpoint. But net-net, when you look in aggregate, they are still growing with some of the data points that I mentioned a moment ago.

我們還看到客戶——我們將他們歸入年長、資歷更深的客戶類別，其中 70% 的客戶實際上擁有比大流行前更多的現金儲備。自大流行以來，更多的是較年輕、較新的企業，它們的現金儲備通常少於小型企業的（聽不清）狀態。他們從消費者支出的角度感受到環境的影響和壓力。但是，從總體上看，它們仍在隨著我剛才提到的一些數據點而增長。

With that said, when we look at our platform, it's why we're just being -- continuing to be intentional about sharing the proof points that we shared today. Our platform is not immune, but we are resilient. And so when you look at some of the data points that we shared, our Payments -- our total Payments -- online Payments volume is 20%, which is actually quite healthy, but it's down 5 points.

話雖如此，當我們審視我們的平台時，這就是為什麼我們只是 - 繼續有意分享我們今天分享的證明點。我們的平台不能倖免，但我們有彈性。因此，當您查看我們共享的一些數據點時，我們的支付——我們的總支付——在線支付量為 20%，這實際上非常健康，但下降了 5 個百分點。

At the same time, when you look at our overall performance across Mailchimp and QuickBooks, we actually are seeing strength in serving our mid-market customers and continuing to serve our customers that have been on the platform for a long time. The proof points that I shared was our customer growth in mid-market is strong.

與此同時，當您查看我們在 Mailchimp 和 QuickBooks 上的整體表現時，我們實際上看到了為中端市場客戶提供服務的優勢，並繼續為長期使用該平台的客戶提供服務。我分享的證據是我們在中端市場的客戶增長強勁。

We're growing Payroll -- U.S. Payroll double digits, and we're actually seeing a migration to our higher-end Payroll offerings. And net-net, we are not immune, but we are resilient, and we feel really good about the sustained growth that we've delivered and the trajectory of the KPIs that we see as we look into next year.

我們正在增長薪資——美國薪資兩位數，我們實際上看到了向我們更高端薪資產品的遷移。淨網，我們不能倖免，但我們有彈性，我們對我們實現的持續增長以及我們在明年看到的 KPI 軌跡感到非常滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Weiss from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Keith Weiss。

Michelle, it's been great working for you -- or with you over the years. So congratulations on all the great work that you've done. Sasan, a question for you on just tax and kind of how it unfolded throughout this season. I understand sort of overall filings down because of less people kind of getting the refunds, right?

米歇爾，多年來為你工作或與你一起工作非常棒。祝賀您所做的所有出色工作。 Sasan，一個關於稅收的問題，以及它在整個賽季中是如何展開的。我知道由於獲得退款的人較少，所以整體申請有所減少，對吧？

And I understand DIY is probably a bigger component of it. I don't quite understand why TurboTax lose the share in that dynamic. Like what's the mechanism by which you guys get hit harder than others, and therefore, kind of lose share? That's question number one.

而且我知道 DIY 可能是其中更大的組成部分。我不太明白為什麼 TurboTax 會失去這種動態的份額。就像你們受到比其他人更嚴重的打擊並因此失去份額的機制是什麼？這是第一個問題。

And question number two, there has been some concern about an extended tax season and the ability for approximately 10% of filers to be able to file at a later date that pushes out of your fiscal year. You didn't mention that. Was there any significant impact from that side of the equation that some of this tax strength might just push into next fiscal year?

第二個問題，人們擔心延長的稅收季節以及大約 10% 的申報者能夠在推遲您的財政年度的較晚日期進行申報。你沒有提到那個。等式的那一邊是否有任何重大影響，即這種稅收強度的一部分可能會推入下一個財政年度？

Yes. Sure, Keith. Great question. Let me start with your share question. First and foremost, the majority of -- in fact, we would say, close to all of those that came into the category of taxes, to get access to their stimulus dollars and to their tax credit that were not tax filers before, almost all of them came into the do-it-yourself category because it is so much easier and faster to get access to, in essence, all their credit. And those are the filers that we see that have left the do-it-yourself category.

是的。當然，基思。很好的問題。讓我從你的分享問題開始。首先，大多數 - 事實上，我們會說，接近所有那些進入稅收類別的人，以獲得他們的刺激資金和他們以前不是納稅申報人的稅收抵免，幾乎所有他們中的一些人屬於自己動手的類別，因為從本質上講，獲得他們所有的信用是如此容易和快捷。這些是我們看到的已經離開自己動手類別的申報者。

The reason our share is down is actually pure math. We're the largest share player in the do-it-yourself category, and we got the largest share of those folks that actually came in during the pandemic era. And when they left the category, just by pure math and the cohort of customers that we review in our retention, what we, in essence, see is those cohort of customers that came in that did not file taxes before to get access to credits are the ones that left, which is actually what gives us confidence, when we look at our key retention forwards looking ahead, but also our TurboTax Live performance that we talked about earlier.

我們的份額下降的原因實際上是純數學。我們是自己動手類別中最大的份額參與者，我們在大流行期間實際進入的那些人中佔有最大份額。當他們離開該類別時，僅通過純數學和我們在保留中審查的客戶群，我們實質上看到的是那些在獲得信貸之前沒有報稅的客戶群是那些離開的人，這實際上給了我們信心，當我們展望未來的關鍵保留時，還有我們之前談到的 TurboTax Live 表現。

So that's where -- that's how the share plays out. It's pure math. We got the majority of them, and when they left the category, they left TurboTax. In terms of extensions, yes, there's dollars attached to it, Keith. But in context of a $14 billion company, it's really -- we don't consider it material. So that's why we didn't show, and I didn't really spend much time talking about it.

所以這就是 - 這就是份額的發揮方式。這是純數學。我們得到了他們中的大多數，當他們離開這個類別時，他們就離開了 TurboTax。就延期而言，是的，它與美元相關，基思。但在一家價值 140 億美元的公司的背景下，它真的——我們認為它不重要。所以這就是我們沒有展示的原因，我也沒有真正花太多時間談論它。

Your next question comes from the line of Siti Panigrahi from Mizuho.

你的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Siti Panigrahi。

Michelle, it was great working with you. Good luck with your next endeavor. And Sasan, I want to dig into Mailchimp. It's good to see that acceleration to mid- to high-teens growth in Mailchimp. So could you talk about -- like you made some changes. How much of that contributed to growth versus what are you seeing in the demand environment? Is macro really a headwind at this point? What are you seeing in the spending pattern on marketing from your customer base? And how sustainable going forward?

米歇爾，很高興和你一起工作。祝你下一次努力好運。還有 Sasan，我想深入了解 Mailchimp。很高興看到 Mailchimp 中青少年的加速增長。那麼你能談談——就像你做了一些改變一樣。與您在需求環境中看到的情況相比，其中有多少對增長做出了貢獻？此時宏觀真的是逆風嗎？您從客戶群的營銷支出模式中看到了什麼？未來的可持續性如何？

Was the last part of your question how sustainable is that going forward?

您問題的最後一部分是未來的可持續性嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. So thank you for the question. First of all, very consistent with what I've shared in the last probably 18 months or so, we felt, and I felt very strongly that the opportunity that we had with Mailchimp is how we bring it together with QuickBooks to truly create one platform that becomes the source of truth for running your business. And in an environment where now we have access to, with our customers' permission, the data, applying AI and generative AI, we can now shift the platform to a place where we can do everything for you and deliver insights to help you manage your cash flow, to help you grow your customers. And that's really the ultimate game changer that we are focused on.

好的。謝謝你的提問。首先，與我在過去大概 18 個月左右的時間里分享的內容非常一致，我們認為，而且我非常強烈地認為，我們與 Mailchimp 的機會是我們如何將它與 QuickBooks 結合在一起，真正創建一個平台這將成為您經營業務的真實來源。在我們現在可以在客戶許可的情況下訪問數據、應用 AI 和生成 AI 的環境中，我們現在可以將平台轉移到一個我們可以為您做所有事情並提供見解以幫助您管理您的地方的地方現金流，幫助您發展客戶。這確實是我們關注的最終遊戲規則改變者。

With that said, the thing that I've been very consistent with you all is that this is all about execution. So all of the progress that you're seeing us talk about in Mailchimp is all better execution. It is not any macro tailwinds. This is from the talent that we've put in place at the leadership level and the talent that we have upgraded across Mailchimp to then end-to-end.

話雖如此，我一直與大家非常一致的是，這一切都與執行有關。因此，您看到我們在 Mailchimp 中談論的所有進步都是更好的執行。這不是任何宏觀順風。這來自我們在領導層部署的人才以及我們在 Mailchimp 中升級到端到端的人才。

We've been revamping the website. We have the -- looking at business model, innovation in our lineup, and we've made improvements. We're improving the product. We're doubling down on mid-market and not only getting our existing customers to understand what features and functionality that we have to deliver the benefit, which helps us with retention and expansion revenue, but also the new customers that we're getting at assisted onboarding and using a lot of our AI and virtual expert platform capabilities.

我們一直在改造網站。我們有 - 著眼於我們陣容中的商業模式，創新，並且我們已經做出了改進。我們正在改進產品。我們正在中端市場加倍努力，不僅讓我們現有的客戶了解我們必須提供哪些特性和功能來帶來好處，這有助於我們保留和擴大收入，而且讓我們正在獲得的新客戶協助入職和使用我們的許多人工智能和虛擬專家平台功能。

So those were sort of illustrative examples relative to why we're seeing paid conversion increase, paid customers increase. We're seeing better retention and better revenue per customer. It is all execution, and I expect this to continue to improve our execution, and coupling that with what we're doing across the QuickBooks platform, truly creating one platform that becomes a source of truth for your business. I am excited and bullish about the future possibilities of what we can do for small businesses, particularly with what's possible with data and gen AI.

因此，這些是關於為什麼我們看到付費轉化率增加、付費客戶增加的說明性例子。我們看到更好的保留率和更好的每位客戶收入。這一切都是執行力，我希望這將繼續提高我們的執行力，並將其與我們在 QuickBooks 平台上所做的事情相結合，真正創建一個平台，成為您業務的真實來源。我對我們可以為小型企業做些什麼的未來可能性感到興奮和樂觀，尤其是數據和人工智能的可能性。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Scott Schneeberger。

Michelle, best wishes for sure. Sasan, I guess this could be a double tax question. The IRS is down 1% year-to-date. You're saying down 2% through the end of July. Just curious, what's going to take it down more in your eyes and how that looks in future years as you continue to think this is more just a pandemic-related year and we get back to normalcy? That's part number one.

米歇爾，當然是最美好的祝愿。 Sasan，我想這可能是雙重徵稅問題。美國國稅局今年迄今下降了 1%。你說到 7 月底下降 2%。只是好奇，在您眼中，什麼會更讓人失望？隨著您繼續認為今年更只是與大流行相關的一年，我們會恢復正常，未來幾年會怎樣？那是第一部分。

And part number two, historically, when we look at unit growth of TurboTax, which was -- you anticipated to be negative 5%, and then revenue per return, which you anticipate to be plus 12%, usually A plus B equals the Consumer segment revenue growth. But you have -- and that would be 7%-plus, but you're guiding 5% to 6%. So is there conservatism in there? Or is there maybe some financial products that you were unable to sell so you're getting a little less -- that maybe is not qualified as revenue per return but something else? Or maybe it's something that's not TurboTax-related directly in the category?

第二部分，從歷史上看，當我們查看 TurboTax 的單位增長時，您預計為負 5%，然後是每次回報的收入，您預計為正 12%，通常 A 加 B 等於消費者分部收入增長。但是你有——那將是 7% 以上，但你指導的是 5% 到 6%。那麼那裡有保守主義嗎？或者是否有一些您無法銷售的金融產品，所以您得到的少了一點——這可能不符合每次回報收入的條件，而是其他什麼？或者它可能不是直接在類別中與 TurboTax 相關的東西？

Sure, Scott. Let me take your first question. There are 2 assumptions that we are making based on all the data that we have and what we see from last year. One is there was actually a lot more extensions last year than we view will take place this year, even with the states that have pushed out. Plus last year, there were more filers. This is in the bucket of the pre-pandemic era -- or the pandemic-era filers that came in to get their stimulus money in their tax credits. There was still a lot of those filers last year through July and a little bit beyond. And so when we take out those filers and we compare to the extensions last year, our view is that IRS will be down 2%. And so that has, of course, an impact, 2%, which has an impact on the performance that we talked about.

當然，斯科特。讓我回答你的第一個問題。根據我們擁有的所有數據和我們從去年看到的情況，我們做出了 2 個假設。一是去年的延期實際上比我們預計的今年要多得多，即使有些州已經推遲了。加上去年，有更多的申報者。這是在大流行前時代的桶 - 或者是大流行時代的申報者進來獲得他們的稅收抵免中的刺激資金。去年到 7 月及稍晚一點，仍然有很多這樣的申報者。因此，當我們剔除這些申報人並與去年的延期進行比較時，我們認為美國國稅局將下降 2%。因此，這當然會產生 2% 的影響，這會對我們談到的性能產生影響。

Secondarily, we really did an incredible amount of analysis to make sure that we had an understanding of these pandemic-era filers and are they all sort of out. And the reality is there's no more stimulus for tax credits to be had by those filers. So based on all of our analysis, they are out.

其次，我們確實做了大量的分析，以確保我們了解這些大流行時期的申報者，並且他們都已經過時了。而現實情況是，這些申報者沒有更多的稅收抵免刺激。因此，根據我們所有的分析，他們出局了。

And so therefore, we expect this year that IRS, at a minimum, is going to be flat. And of course, when we guide, we'll share with you what we've assumed in our guidance in August. But we would assume, at a minimum, it will be flat, maybe even up but, at a minimum, flat based on the reasons that I just mentioned. So that's the first part of your question.

因此，我們預計今年 IRS 至少會持平。當然，當我們進行指導時，我們會與您分享我們在 8 月份的指導中所做的假設。但我們會假設，至少，它會持平，甚至可能上漲，但至少，基於我剛才提到的原因，它會持平。所以這是你問題的第一部分。

The second part of your question is a really good one, and I'll get to the specifics in a moment. I think just sort of reiterate, even in an environment where IRS returns went down, our future is TurboTax Live. And our future is the growth of what we can do with our Live platform, especially with the data and AI capabilities that we have to really disrupt the assisted segment. And our real compass going forward is going to be the growth of our TurboTax Live platform, both in terms of customer growth and revenue growth.

你問題的第二部分非常好，我稍後會詳細介紹。我想重申一下，即使在美國國稅局回報率下降的環境中，我們的未來也是 TurboTax Live。我們的未來是我們可以用我們的 Live 平台做的事情的增長，特別是我們必須真正破壞輔助部分的數據和人工智能能力。我們未來真正的指南針將是我們的 TurboTax Live 平台的增長，無論是在客戶增長還是收入增長方面。

And I may just ask Michelle to weigh in on this, but this sort of comes down to just pure math in terms of when we look at our units and we look at what folks paid for, it sort of adds up to the 12 points seen up in ARPC. It's really nothing beyond that, but let me just ask Michelle. Michelle, would you weigh in on that point at all beyond what I just shared?

我可能只是請 Michelle 對此進行權衡，但就我們查看我們的單位以及我們查看人們支付的費用而言，這歸結為純粹的數學，它加起來就是所看到的 12 點在 ARPC 中。除此之外真的沒什麼，但讓我問問米歇爾。米歇爾，除了我剛才分享的內容之外，你是否會考慮這一點？

Sorry. I was having trouble with the mute button there. No, Sasan. Some of it can just be also rounding with units and returns. And so I wouldn't get overly concerned on that, Scott.

對不起。我在那裡的靜音按鈕有問題。不，薩桑。其中一些也可以用單位和回報四捨五入。所以我不會過分擔心這一點，斯科特。

Got it. So the headline is the 12 points in ARPC growth is sort of very tangible relative to the units that we got?

知道了。所以標題是 ARPC 增長的 12 點相對於我們獲得的單位來說是非常有形的？

Yes. You got the 12 points of ARPC. And then as you said, Scott, we shared we expect the units to be down 5%. So...

是的。您獲得了 ARPC 的 12 分。然後正如你所說，斯科特，我們分享了我們預計單位將下降 5%。所以...

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Jester from BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Daniel Jester。

A couple more on tax. I think you mentioned before that overall retention, because of the factors you mentioned on the call already, is going to be down this year. But could you focus in on just Live retention, given how important that's going to be for the future of the platform? How did that shake out this year?

還有幾個關於稅收的。我想你之前提到過，由於你在電話會議上已經提到的因素，今年的總體保留率將會下降。但考慮到這對平台的未來有多重要，你能不能只關注實時保留？今年情況如何？

And if you could share in terms of Live customer growth, are you getting more from -- takeaways from competitors? Or is these DIY customers trading up to Live? Any color you could provide there would be helpful.

而且，如果您可以分享實時客戶增長方面的信息，您是否會從競爭對手那裡獲得更多收益？或者這些 DIY 客戶正在交易 Live？您可以提供的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes. Sure, Daniel. First of all, yes, you're right in what you heard us say earlier, which is we would expect retention to be down 1 point-plus. And we'll talk about it, of course, more at Investor Day. And it's really because of these pandemic-era filers that came in and have now left the categories.

是的。當然，丹尼爾。首先，是的，您之前聽到我們所說的是對的，我們預計保留率會下降 1 個百分點以上。當然，我們會在投資者日更多地討論它。這真的是因為這些大流行時代的申報者進來了，現在已經離開了類別。

Overall, we like the mix of what we've seen across our Live platform, and we'll share again more of the specifics as we get into Investor Day. But our retention and sort of existing customers coming back, we felt very good about what we expected and what we saw.

總的來說，我們喜歡我們在 Live 平台上所看到的組合，我們將在進入投資者日時再次分享更多細節。但是我們的保留和現有客戶的回歸，我們對我們的預期和所見感到非常滿意。

I would say the second thing is it's a mix. It's a mix of both those that did taxes themselves the prior year that ultimately chose to upgrade to a sort of a Live platform because something changed in their life, inclusive of getting customers that were prior-year assisted in that. And remember, our -- really, our competition is those that go to mom-and-pop shops. It's the 88 million folks, where the majority of them will ultimately go to a local mom-and-pop shop to get their taxes done, and that's where we get a lot of the switchers also from those mom-and-pop shops.

我想說的第二件事是它是混合的。這是前一年自己納稅的人的混合體，他們最終選擇升級到某種實時平台，因為他們的生活發生了一些變化，包括讓前一年的客戶得到幫助。請記住，我們的 - 真的，我們的競爭對手是那些去夫妻店的人。這是 8800 萬人，他們中的大多數人最終會去當地的夫妻店完成他們的稅收，這也是我們從那些夫妻店得到很多轉換者的地方。

So we have a good mix of retention. Those that did taxes themselves last year and chose to use the Live platform because of a confidence question or some concern and then getting those that were prior assisted. And that's a mix we like, and that's a mix we believe will continue.

所以我們有很好的保留組合。那些去年自己納稅並由於信心問題或某些擔憂而選擇使用 Live 平台的人，然後讓那些之前得到過幫助的人。這是我們喜歡的組合，我們相信這種組合會繼續下去。

Now it will be different as we take full service to use either in a further scale because we believe we'll accelerate full-service penetration at a much higher rate than even today. So that's the way I would have you think about it.

現在情況會有所不同，因為我們將全面服務用於更大規模的使用，因為我們相信我們將以比今天高得多的速度加速全面服務滲透。所以這就是我希望你考慮的方式。

Your next question comes from the line of Raimo Lenschow from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Raimo Lenschow。

One question on Credit Karma. You kind of raised the guidance there, and that came after a quarter where we had a lot of turmoil in the financial services industry with the regional banks, et cetera. Can you talk a little bit about what you saw this quarter in terms of the extra headwinds that obviously played out there, but you're actually doing better than what you had guided previously?

一個關於 Credit Karma 的問題。你在那裡提高了指導，這是在一個季度之後，我們在金融服務行業與區域銀行等發生了很多動蕩之後。你能談談你在本季度看到的明顯存在的額外逆風，但你實際上做得比你之前指導的要好嗎？

We're actually continuing to see strength based on our innovation in a couple of areas. One is in cards and in some parts driven by our Karma Guarantee, which is really unique to Credit Karma, where the certainty is very high for a member to get approved for what they are looking for because of the data and AI capabilities that we have.

我們實際上繼續看到基於我們在幾個領域的創新的力量。一個是卡片，在某些部分由我們的 Karma 保證驅動，這對於 Credit Karma 來說確實是獨一無二的，由於我們擁有的數據和 AI 功能，會員獲得批准的確定性非常高。 .

The second is Credit Karma Money. And this is where, as I always have shared, we are building a consumer platform to be the destination for consumers with the integrations that we're doing with TurboTax and Credit Karma. And in essence, we saw a 45% increase in the number of TurboTax customers that chose to put their money on a Credit Karma Money account. And not only do we make some revenue on that, but over time, based on the higher frequency of the engagement that we can ultimately monetize even further, which were not in the numbers that I just mentioned.

第二個是 Credit Karma Money。正如我一直分享的那樣，這就是我們正在構建一個消費者平台，通過我們與 TurboTax 和 Credit Karma 的集成，成為消費者的目的地。從本質上講，我們看到選擇將錢存入 Credit Karma Money 賬戶的 TurboTax 客戶數量增加了 45%。我們不僅從中獲得了一些收入，而且隨著時間的推移，基於更高的參與頻率，我們最終可以進一步獲利，這不在我剛才提到的數字中。

So really, it's across our innovation across cards and Credit Karma Money. That's why we saw the performance that we saw in the quarter. And then with 1 quarter left in the year, we, of course, have confidence to improve the guidance that we provided to what Michelle shared earlier.

所以真的，這是我們在卡片和 Credit Karma Money 方面的創新。這就是為什麼我們看到了本季度的表現。然後在今年還剩 1 個季度的時候，我們當然有信心改進我們為 Michelle 早些時候分享的內容提供的指導。

Your next question comes from the line of Jackson Ader from MoffettNathanson.

您的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Jackson Ader。

We saw the press release related to the IRS direct filing program, but I just thought maybe, Sasan, if we could hear what you're thinking are maybe the largest potential threat of that study that came out as part of the Inflation Reduction Act last year?

我們看到了與美國國稅局直接申報計劃相關的新聞稿，但我只是想也許，Sasan，如果我們能聽到你的想法，那可能是該研究的最大潛在威脅，該研究作為去年通貨膨脹減少法案的一部分出現年？

Yes. Sure. Thank you for the question. I'll share a couple of perspectives that is really consistent with what we've talked about, but this is probably an important time to reiterate how we think about it. First and foremost, I can't vouch for their study. I can simply vouch for the facts that we have and the facts that are already in the market. And I think the first one is free tax software is already available to all consumers, and the awareness is actually quite high. So that's the first thing that I would just remind us of.

是的。當然。感謝你的提問。我將分享一些與我們所討論的內容真正一致的觀點，但現在可能是重申我們對它的看法的重要時刻。首先，我不能保證他們的學習。我可以簡單地保證我們擁有的事實和市場上已經存在的事實。而且我認為第一個是免費的報稅軟件已經面向所有消費者開放，而且認知度其實相當高。所以這是我要提醒我們的第一件事。

I think the second thing I would say is a reminder of this will yet be another free tax software in the marketplace. And I would just say, if you look at the last 4-plus years, there were several entrants, big entrants, into the free tax software. One was Credit Karma before we acquired them, where they have 100 million-plus customers, a trusted platform. And they entered into the market of providing free tax software with sort of very little to no impact.

我想我要說的第二件事是提醒人們這將是市場上的另一種免費稅務軟件。我只想說，如果你看看過去 4 年多的時間，就會發現有幾家大公司進入了免費稅務軟件。一個是在我們收購之前的 Credit Karma，他們擁有 1 億多客戶，是一個值得信賴的平台。他們進入提供免費稅務軟件的市場，幾乎沒有影響。

And then another very large player that we sold Credit Karma tax to when we acquired Credit Karma. And you can, of course, observe what their results are. The point is that free tax software is already available, has been available to every consumer, and the awareness is extremely high. And so to have another sort of free tax software that's available is really immaterial is the way we think about it. And I'll remind us, by the way, it's actually not free. This is going to cost taxpayers billions of dollars, and so it's really not free.

然後是另一個非常大的玩家，當我們收購 Credit Karma 時，我們將 Credit Karma 稅賣給了它。當然，您可以觀察他們的結果。關鍵是免費報稅軟件已經可以使用，已經提供給每個消費者，而且認知度非常高。因此，擁有另一種可用的免費稅務軟件真的無關緊要，這就是我們的想法。順便提一下，它實際上不是免費的。這將花費納稅人數十億美元，所以它真的不是免費的。

And I think the last thing I would say is really back to our vision. Our vision has been from what we declared 4 years ago to really become a consumer platform of choice, which means that beyond serving you to help you get your taxes done, we're delivering benefits through Credit Karma beyond tax, which means we can monetize beyond tax.

我想我最後要說的是真正回到我們的願景。我們的願景是從我們 4 年前宣布的真正成為首選的消費者平台開始，這意味著除了為您提供服務以幫助您完成納稅之外，我們還通過 Credit Karma 提供稅收以外的好處，這意味著我們可以通過貨幣化超出稅收。

And really, out of the $35 billion TAM in tax, less than $5 billion is do-it-yourself. And really, our biggest opportunity is the other $30 billion we're going after, $20 billion of it being consumers that have somebody else get their taxes done and $10 billion being business tax. That's our future. That's our presence. That's where we are focused. And so net-net, when I think about the IRS study that was announced, I think it's a study. Facts friendly, you look at the facts in the marketplace. This is for us, this is really not a threat at all.

實際上，在 350 億美元的 TAM 稅收中，只有不到 50 億美元是自己動手的。實際上，我們最大的機會是我們正在追求的另外 300 億美元，其中 200 億美元是讓其他人完成納稅的消費者，100 億美元是營業稅。那就是我們的未來。那就是我們的存在。這就是我們關注的地方。因此，net-net，當我想到已宣布的 IRS 研究時，我認為這是一項研究。事實友好，你看看市場上的事實。這對於我們來說，這還真的是一點威脅都沒有。

Your next question comes from the line of Brad Sills from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Brad Sills。

I wanted to ask a question around the TurboTax ARPU number. Such a nice increase that you're expecting this year at 12%. Could you help unpack that a little bit for us, please? Obviously, TurboTax Live was a key driver there. I guess, 2 questions. Were there other contributors here, premium mix shift or other items, perhaps?

我想問一個關於 TurboTax ARPU 數字的問題。您預計今年的增幅將達到 12%。你能幫我們把它拆開一點嗎？顯然，TurboTax Live 是其中的關鍵驅動因素。我想，2個問題。這裡是否還有其他貢獻者，高級組合轉變或其他項目，也許？

And then also on TT Live, what would you attribute the strength to? We've seen the ads this tax season: don't do your taxes, we'll do them for you. Is it just growing awareness of QuickBook -- sorry, of TurboTax as a solution to help with assisted? You've been at this for a number of years. So just kind of, I guess, what's working there?

然後在 TT Live 上，您將力量歸因於什麼？我們在這個報稅季看到了這樣的廣告：不用你報稅，我們會替你報稅。是不是只是提高了對 QuickBook 的認識——抱歉，TurboTax 作為幫助解決方案？你已經在這個領域工作多年了。所以，我想，那是什麼在起作用？

Yes. Sure, Brad. A couple of things. You actually nailed that our ARPU increase -- on top of ARPU increases in the last several years has come from TurboTax Live. It is a disruptive price offering. At the same time, it's got much higher ARPU and some of the more premium customers that chose -- they're either self-employed or they're investors and, of course, chose our premium SKU, which has a higher ARPU. So those are a couple of big drivers.

是的。當然，布拉德。幾件事。您實際上指出，我們的 ARPU 增長——除了過去幾年 ARPU 的增長之外，還來自 TurboTax Live。這是一種破壞性的價格提供。與此同時，它有更高的 ARPU 和一些更優質的客戶選擇——他們要么是個體經營者，要么是投資者，當然，他們選擇了我們具有更高 ARPU 的優質 SKU。所以這些是幾個重要的驅動因素。

I would tell you that the thing that I am sort of most excited about were the insights and the learnings that we got this year that really informs what we're going to double down on right now as we prepare for next year. One is full service. Full service is not an offering that is -- has product market fit. It's at scale. It's -- we got an 84 Net Promoter Score this year, which is the highest Net Promoter of anything across the company we have ever had.

我會告訴你，我最興奮的事情是我們今年獲得的見解和學習，它們真正告訴我們在為明年做準備時我們現在要加倍努力的事情。一是全方位服務。全面服務不是產品——具有產品市場契合度。這是大規模的。這是——我們今年獲得了 84 的淨推薦值，這是我們公司有史以來最高的淨推薦值。

And you've heard me say it before around Credit Karma, well, this is even a higher Net Promoter. And that contributed to a small amount this year because we were really being thoughtful and careful about ensuring we get to -- we have the right product market fit and we can deliver for customers. Well, we surprised ourselves in terms of the product market fit, and we're going to be really intentional about doubling down on that next year.

你以前聽我說過 Credit Karma，好吧，這甚至是一個更高的淨推薦值。這對今年的貢獻很小，因為我們真的很周到和謹慎地確保我們能夠——我們有合適的產品市場，我們可以為客戶提供服務。好吧，我們對產品市場契合度感到驚訝，我們真的有意在明年加倍努力。

I think, I would say, the other thing, back to your question around learning, is we really learned where and how experts. And remember, experts are not just human. It's both our AI and generative AI capabilities and/or humans, depending on the need of the customer, engaging around the money experience, helping customers understand their refund, changes in their refund or their balance due and changes in their balance due.

我想，我想說的是，回到你關於學習的問題，我們真的在哪里以及如何學習專家。請記住，專家不僅僅是人。我們的 AI 和生成 AI 能力和/或人類，根據客戶的需要，參與金錢體驗，幫助客戶了解他們的退款、退款或到期餘額的變化以及到期餘額的變化。

We learned, coupled with our go-to-market strategy, how to really nail that benefit, and that's what drove the growth. But we believe we are capable of so much more growth as we look ahead based on the insights we got towards the end of the season, and that's what we'll be focused on as we head into next year.

我們了解到，結合我們的上市戰略，如何真正實現這一收益，這就是推動增長的原因。但我們相信，根據我們在賽季末獲得的洞察力展望未來，我們有能力實現更大的增長，這就是我們進入明年時將關注的重點。

That's all the time we have today for questions, and this concludes our question-and-answer session. Would you like to close with any additional remarks?

這就是我們今天所有的提問時間，我們的問答環節到此結束。你想結束任何額外的評論嗎？

Yes. Just to say thank you for all your great questions, and many thanks to our employees and customers for their amazing focus and being part of this storied franchise, and we look forward to seeing all of you at next earnings. Thank you, everybody.

是的。只想說謝謝你提出的所有重要問題，也非常感謝我們的員工和客戶的驚人關注並成為這個傳奇特許經營的一部分，我們期待在下一次收益中見到你們所有人。謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。