直覺電腦 (INTU) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Intuit's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

午安.我是 Regina，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線生。現在，我謹代表 Intuit 公司歡迎各位參加 2023 財年第一季業績電話會議。 （接線生操作說明）

With that, I'll turn the call over to Kim Watkins, Intuit's Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Watkins?

接下來，我將把電話轉給Intuit公司投資者關係副總裁金‧沃特金斯女士。沃特金斯女士？

Thanks, Regina. Good afternoon and welcome to Intuit's First Quarter Fiscal 2023 Conference Call. I'm here with Intuit's CEO, Sasan Goodarzi; and Michelle Clatterbuck, our CFO.

謝謝，雷吉娜。下午好，歡迎參加Intuit 2023財年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加會議的還有Intuit的執行長薩桑·古達爾齊和財務長米歇爾·克拉特巴克。

Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that our remarks will include forward-looking statements. There are a number of factors that could cause Intuit's results to differ materially from our expectations. You can learn more about these risks in the press release we issued earlier this afternoon, our Form 10-K for fiscal 2022 and our other SEC filings. All of those documents are available on the Investor Relations page of Intuit's website at intuit.com. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

在正式開始之前，我想提醒各位，我們的發言將包含前瞻性陳述。許多因素可能導致Intuit的實際表現與預期有重大差異。您可以在我們今天下午早些時候發布的新聞稿、2022財年10-K表格以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的其他文件中了解更多關於這些風險的資訊。所有這些文件都可以在Intuit官網intuit.com的投資者關係頁面找到。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Some of the numbers in these remarks are presented on a non-GAAP basis. We've reconciled the comparable GAAP and non-GAAP numbers in today's press release. Unless otherwise noted, all growth rates refer to the current period versus the comparable prior year period, and the business metrics and associated growth rates refer to worldwide business metrics. A copy of our prepared remarks and supplemental financial information will be available on our website after this call ends.

本次發言中的部分資料以非公認會計準則（非GAAP）列示。我們已在今天的新聞稿中對相應的GAAP和非GAAP資料進行了核對。除非另有說明，否則所有成長率均指本期與去年同期相比的成長率，業務指標及相關成長率均指全球業務指標。本次電話會議結束後，您可在我們的網站上取得我們準備的發言稿及補充財務資訊。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Sasan.

接下來，我將把電話交給薩桑。

Great. Thank you, Kim, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We had a strong first quarter as we executed on our strategy to be the global AI-driven expert platform powering prosperity for consumers and small businesses. We continue to feel bullish about our momentum and execution across small business and tax. We're innovating at a high velocity using the power of our platform and modern technology capabilities to deliver new offerings at scale focusing on breakthrough adoption.

太好了。謝謝Kim，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨。我們第一季業績強勁，成功執行了我們的策略，致力於成為全球領先的AI驅動型專家平台，協助消費者和小型企業實現繁榮發展。我們對在小型企業和稅務領域的成長動能和執行力依然充滿信心。我們正運用自身平台與現代技術能力，高速創新，大規模推出新產品，力求實現突破性應用。

We continue to be focused on putting more money in our customers' pockets, saving them time and ensuring complete confidence in every financial decision they make. This is more important than ever in the current uncertain economic environment and helps us penetrate our large total addressable market of over $300 billion.

我們始終致力於為客戶節省開支、節省時間，並確保他們對每項財務決策充滿信心。在當前充滿不確定性的經濟環境下，這一點顯得尤為重要，也有助於我們開拓規模超過3000億美元的龐大市場。

Now let's turn to our first quarter results. Revenue grew 29%, including 13 points from the addition of Mailchimp. Total revenue growth was fueled by the Small Business and Self-Employed Group revenue growth of 38% or 19% excluding Mailchimp and 25% revenue growth in the Consumer Group driven by a strong October peak with new customers and extension filers.

現在我們來看看第一季的業績。營收成長了29%，其中Mailchimp的貢獻貢獻了13個百分點。總營收成長主要得益於小型企業和自營商業務板塊38%的營收成長（若不計入Mailchimp則為19%），以及消費者業務板塊25%的營收成長（這主要得益於10月份新客戶及延期申請者的強勁成長）。

The scale of our platform, along with our rich data, gives us the unique ability to see charge volume growth, the number of employees paid, the hours worked per small business and cash reserves. These measures remain strong for those on our platform and inform our perspective on the health of small businesses.

我們平台的規模以及豐富的數據，使我們能夠獨特地洞察交易量成長、員工人數、每家小型企業的工作時長以及現金儲備。這些指標對於我們平台上的企業而言依然強勁，並為我們評估小型企業的健康狀況提供了基礎。

TurboTax had a robust finish to the tax season with a record number of innovations launched and tested in the October peak. I'm excited about this coming -- upcoming season, particularly our strategy to transform the assisted category, including the launch of Business Tax and TurboTax and Credit Karma platform integrations.

TurboTax在報稅季末表現強勁，10月份的高峰期推出了創紀錄數量的創新功能並進行了測試。我對即將到來的報稅季充滿期待，尤其是我們旨在革新輔助報稅領域的策略，包括推出企業報稅功能以及TurboTax與Credit Karma平台的整合。

Now turning to Credit Karma. At Investor Day and on our fourth quarter call earnings call, we shared that all Credit Karma verticals had been negatively impacted by the macro uncertainty. In the last few weeks of the quarter and into November, we saw further deterioration in all verticals.

現在來談談Credit Karma。在投資者日和第四季度財報電話會議上，我們提到Credit Karma的所有業務板塊都受到了宏觀經濟不確定性的負面影響。在第四季最後幾週以及11月份，所有業務部門的情況都進一步惡化。

Consumer default rates remain relatively low by historical standards, reflecting strong consumer cash balances coming out of the pandemic. However, we continue to see partners pull back from extending credit, reflecting the uncertainty in the economic environment and the risk of deterioration in credit performance.

以歷史標準衡量，消費者違約率仍相對較低，反映出疫情後消費者現金餘額仍強勁。然而，我們持續看到合作夥伴減少信貸發放，這反映出經濟環境的不確定性以及信貸表現惡化的風險。

Given this context, Credit Karma revenue came in lower than expected for the quarter. We are lowering our fiscal year 2023 revenue guidance for Credit Karma to a decline of 15% to 10% versus our previous guidance of 10% to 15% growth. At the same time, we are reiterating our fiscal year 2023 revenue guidance for all other segments and reiterating our fiscal 2023 GAAP and non-GAAP operating income and earnings per share guidance.

有鑑於此，Credit Karma本季營收低於預期。我們將Credit Karma 2023財年營收預期下調至下降10%至15%，而先前預期為成長10%至15%。同時，我們重申了其他所有業務部門2023財年營收預期，並重申了2023財年GAAP和非GAAP準則下的營業收入和每股收益預期。

Our ability to maintain earnings power despite the lower Credit Karma revenue guidance shows the power of our diversified platform and our ability to balance platform and product investments for the future while delivering on our commitments.

儘管 Credit Karma 的收入預期有所下調，但我們仍能保持獲利能力，這表明我們多元化平台的實力，以及我們在履行承諾的同時，平衡平台和產品未來投資的能力。

Regardless of the near-term macro volatility, we remain confident in our long-term revenue growth expectations of 20% to 25% for Credit Karma driven by our vision and innovation to become the self-driving financial platform fueling prosperity for all consumers.

儘管短期宏觀經濟波動，但我們仍對 Credit Karma 的長期營收成長預期充滿信心，預計成長率將達到 20% 至 25%。這項預期源自於我們的願景和創新，即成為推動所有消費者繁榮發展的自動駕駛金融平台。

At Investor Day, we shared how our AI-driven expert platform strategy is accelerating our innovation and how our 5 Big Bets are solving the largest problems our customers face. We continue to deliver strong proof points that demonstrate our success and are well positioned for durable growth in the future.

在投資者日上，我們分享了人工智慧驅動的專家平台策略如何加速創新，以及我們的五大重點項目如何解決客戶面臨的最大難題。我們持續提供強有力的證據，證明我們的成功，並為未來的永續成長奠定了堅實的基礎。

As a reminder, our 5 Big Bets are: revolutionize speed to benefit, connect people to experts, unlock smart money decisions, be the center of small business growth and disrupt the small business mid-market. Today, I'd like to highlight examples of our recent progress across 3 of these Big Bets.

再次提醒大家，我們的五大重點是：革新效率提升、連結用戶與專家、助力用戶做出明智的理財決策、成為小型企業發展的中心以及顛覆中小型企業市場。今天，我想重點介紹一下我們近期在三個重點領域的進展。

Our first Big Bet is to revolutionize speed to benefit. Our platform enables us to innovate for our customers with speed and at scale, which is foundational to all of our Big Bets. Our evolution from a siloed technology stack to a platform leveraging shared capabilities is well underway. Our development environment enables speed and innovation. Engineers now have 6x the velocity of deploying code, resulting in accelerated innovation compared to fiscal year 2020.

我們首要的重大舉措是革新速度，進而提升效益。我們的平台使我們能夠快速、大規模地為客戶進行創新，這是我們所有重大舉措的基石。我們正穩步推動從孤立的技術棧向利用共享能力的平台轉型。我們的開發環境能夠顯著提升速度和創新能力。與 2020 財年相比，工程師的程式碼部署速度提升了 6 倍，創新速度也因此顯著加快。

Our AI and fintech capabilities are well positioned to solve our customers' biggest problems, such as our money innovations across payments and payroll, advancements in TurboTax Live, QuickBooks Live and QuickBooks Advance, just to name a few. And we're doing that today with over 730 million AI-driven customer interactions per year, 2 million AI models in production, 58 billion machine learning predictions per day and over $465 billion in money moved during fiscal year 2022.

我們的人工智慧和金融科技能力能夠有效解決客戶面臨的最大難題，例如我們在支付和薪資管理方面的創新，以及TurboTax Live、QuickBooks Live和QuickBooks Advance等產品的升級，等等。如今，我們每年透過人工智慧驅動的客戶互動實現超過7.3億次，擁有200萬個人工智慧模式投入生產，每天進行580億次機器學習預測，並在2022財年處理了超過4,650億美元的資金。

Our second Big Bet is to connect people to experts. We're solving one of the largest problems our customer face, lack of confidence, by connecting people to experts virtually. During the October tax peak, our team launched a record 50 innovations to test and learn. Our learnings can help us transform our go-to-market campaign for the assisted segment; revamp the end-to-end TurboTax Live platform experiences with faster access to money via Credit Karma; and better serve the investor, Latino and self-employed segments. We are looking forward to the upcoming tax season.

我們的第二個重大措施是連結用戶與專家。我們正在透過虛擬方式連結使用者與專家，解決客戶面臨的最大難題之一——缺乏信心。在十月的報稅高峰期，我們的團隊推出了創紀錄的 50 項創新功能進行測試和學習。這些經驗將幫助我們改善輔助報稅用戶的市場推廣策略；透過 Credit Karma 更快取得資金，從而改進 TurboTax Live 的端到端平台體驗；並更好地服務於投資者、拉丁裔和自僱人士群體。我們期待著即將到來的報稅季。

Our fourth Big Bet is to become the center of small business growth by helping our customers get customers, get paid fast, manage capital, pay employees with confidence and grow in an omnichannel world. With Mailchimp, we're well on our way to becoming the source of truth for our customers to help them grow and run their business.

我們的第四項重大措施是成為小型企業發展的中心，幫助客戶獲取客戶、快速收款、管理資金、自信地支付員工薪酬，並在全通路環境中實現成長。借助 Mailchimp，我們正朝著成為客戶的資訊權威來源的目標穩步邁進，幫助他們發展和經營業務。

We have 3 acceleration priorities with Mailchimp: first, delivering our vision of an end-to-end customer growth platform; second, disrupting the mid-market by developing a full marketing automation, CRM and e-commerce suite; and third, accelerating global growth with a holistic go-to-market approach.

我們與 Mailchimp 合作的 3 個加速優先事項：第一，實現我們打造端到端客戶成長平台的願景；第二，透過開發完整的行銷自動化、CRM 和電子商務套件來顛覆中端市場；第三，透過整體的市場進入策略來加速全球成長。

This quarter, we launched a new brand campaign, refreshed our website, and launched an improved first-time use experience for new customers that help them more quickly find and use the feature that aligns with their unique business needs. We also launched a 1-hour assisted onboarding process for our high-value Mailchimp customers with the goal of guiding them to more advanced features to increase awareness and usage.

本季度，我們推出了全新的品牌推廣活動，更新了網站，並為新客戶優化了首次使用體驗，幫助他們更快找到並使用符合自身業務需求的功能。此外，我們也為高價值的 Mailchimp 客戶推出了 1 小時快速上手指導服務，旨在引導他們使用更高級的功能，從而提升他們對 Mailchimp 的認知度和使用率。

This program was launched in a record 4 weeks by leveraging components of our virtual expert platform, another example of the power of the Intuit platform capabilities. As a result of these enhancements and others, we're seeing a positive impact on customer growth and expansion and a lift in customers converting to pay.

該專案僅用了創紀錄的四周時間就成功上線，這得益於我們虛擬專家平台的強大功能，也再次印證了 Intuit 平台的卓越性能。由於這些改進以及其他舉措，我們看到客戶成長和擴張都得到了積極促進，付費客戶轉換率也顯著提升。

Turning to our money portfolio. We've made a tremendous investment over the last few years to expand our suite of money offerings to help small businesses get paid, pay others and access capital and manage their money. We continue to see strength in our charge volume driven by easier discovery, auto-enabled payments, instant deposit and getting paid upfront. This quarter, we made it even easier for more customers to access their cash quickly by removing friction and opening the funnel to more customers. We're also rolling out a new invoicing experience with a more streamlined workflow and improved design, which is driving an increase in the percentage of companies that send payment-enabled invoices.

接下來談談我們的資金管理產品組合。過去幾年，我們投入大量資金擴展資金管理產品線，旨在幫助小型企業收款、付款、取得資金並管理資金。由於更便利的發現、自動付款、即時到帳和預付款等功能，我們的交易量持續成長。本季度，我們進一步簡化了流程，讓更多客戶能夠快速取得資金，並擴大了客戶管道。此外，我們也推出了全新的發票體驗，擁有更精簡的工作流程和更優化的設計，這促使更多企業選擇發送支援支付功能的發票。

Looking ahead, we're tackling another big challenge for our small business customers, B2B payments. More than $2 trillion of invoices were managed in QuickBooks in fiscal year 2022. As we shared at Investor Day, we are launching the QuickBooks Business Network, which connects small business customers to each other, making it easier for them to do business. It's currently in beta testing, and we expect to launch more broadly later this fiscal year.

展望未來，我們將著手解決小型企業客戶面臨的另一個重大挑戰—B2B支付。 2022財年，QuickBooks處理了超過2兆美元的發票。正如我們在投資者日上所宣布的，我們即將推出QuickBooks商業網絡，將小型企業客戶彼此連接，從而簡化他們的業務流程。目前該網路正處於測試階段，我們預計將在本財年稍後全面推出。

We're also building our own bill pay functionality in QuickBooks and plan to launch this capability in the future. We're excited about our opportunities for growth with Mailchimp and payments becoming the center of small business growth.

我們還在 QuickBooks 中建立了自己的帳單支付功能，並計劃在未來推出這項功能。我們對與 Mailchimp 的合作發展機會感到興奮，並期待支付功能成為小型企業發展的核心。

Wrapping up, we feel confident in our long-term business strategy and the power of our platform. In an uncertain macro environment, the benefits of our global financial technology platform are more important and more mission-critical than ever for our customers.

綜上所述，我們對公司的長期業務策略和平台實力充滿信心。在宏觀環境充滿不確定性的當下，我們全球金融科技平台的優勢對客戶而言比以往任何時候都更重要，也更為關鍵。

We have a large TAM with low penetration, secular shifts working in our favor, a diversified large-scale platform where we continue to invest heavily in innovation across our 5 Big Bets to deliver benefits for our customers, resulting in top line growth and margin expansion. We're proud to be an employer of choice as well as the financial technology platform of choice for over 100 million customers around the world who rely on Intuit to prosper.

我們擁有龐大的潛在市場，但市場滲透率較低；市場格局的長期變化對我們有利；我們擁有多元化的大型平台，並持續加大對五大核心業務創新的投入，以造福客戶，從而實現營收成長和利潤率提升。我們很自豪能成為眾多求職者的首選雇主，同時也是全球超過1億客戶信賴的金融科技平台，協助他們成功。

Now let me hand it over to Michelle.

現在讓我把麥克風交給米歇爾。

Thanks, Sasan. For the first quarter of fiscal 2023, we delivered revenue of $2.6 billion, GAAP operating income of $76 million versus $195 million last year, non-GAAP operating income of $662 million versus $555 million last year, GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.14 versus $0.82 a year ago, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.66 versus $1.53 last year.

謝謝，薩桑。 2023財年第一季，我們實現營收26億美元，GAAP營業收入7,600萬美元，去年同期為1.95億美元；非GAAP營業收入6.62億美元，而去年同期為5.55億美元；GAAP攤薄後每股收益0.14美元，而去年同期為0.82美元；

Turning to the business segments. In the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, revenue grew 38% during the quarter and 19% on an organic basis, excluding $264 million in Mailchimp revenue. Online Ecosystem revenue grew 60% in Q1 or 28% excluding Mailchimp.

接下來看業務板塊。在小型企業和自營商業務板塊，本季營收成長了38%，若不計入Mailchimp的2.64億美元收入，則有機成長為19%。線上生態系統業務部門第一季營收成長了60%，若不計入Mailchimp收入，則成長了28%。

With the goal of being the source of truth for small businesses, our strategic focus within the Small Business and Self-Employed Group is threefold: grow the core, connect the ecosystem and expand globally.

為了成為小型企業的權威資訊來源，我們在小型企業和自營商集團的策略重點有三方面：發展核心業務、連結生態系統和拓展全球業務。

First, we continue to focus on growing the core. QuickBooks Online accounting revenue grew 29% in Q1, driven mainly by customer growth, higher effective prices and mix shift.

首先，我們繼續專注於核心業務的成長。 QuickBooks Online會計業務收入在第一季成長了29%，主要得益於客戶成長、實際價格上漲和產品組合調整。

Second, we continue to focus on connecting the ecosystem. Online services revenue, which includes Mailchimp, Payroll, Payments, Capital and Time Tracking, grew 109% in Q1. Excluding Mailchimp, online services revenue grew 28%. Mailchimp revenue included in online services was $264 million, up low teens versus a year ago, in line with our expectations. Within Payroll, revenue growth in the quarter reflects an increase in payroll customers and a mix shift to higher-end offerings. Within Payments, revenue growth reflects an increase in charge volume per customer and ongoing customer growth.

其次，我們繼續專注於連結整個生態系統。第一季度，包括 Mailchimp、薪資管理、支付、資本和時間追蹤在內的線上服務收入增加了 109%。若不計入 Mailchimp，線上服務收入成長了 28%。 Mailchimp 的營收計入線上服務收入為 2.64 億美元，較去年同期成長 10% 左右，符合我們的預期。薪資管理業務的收入成長反映了薪資客戶數量的增加以及產品組合向高端產品的轉變。支付業務的收入成長反映了每位客戶的交易金額增加以及客戶的持續成長。

Third, we continue to make progress expanding globally, and we began to execute our refreshed international strategy, which includes leading with Mailchimp. On a constant currency basis, total international Online Ecosystem revenue grew 172% in Q1 and 19% on an organic basis excluding Mailchimp.

第三，我們持續推動全球擴張，並開始執行更新後的國際策略，其中以Mailchimp為核心。以固定匯率計算，第一季國際線上生態系統總營收成長172%，若不計入Mailchimp，則有機成長19%。

Desktop Ecosystem revenue grew 7% in the first quarter. As a reminder, the subscription model for our desktop accounting solution makes this revenue more predictable, and we raised our desktop prices for several products in September to more closely align with QBO pricing. QuickBooks Desktop Enterprise revenue grew mid-single digits during the quarter. We continue to expect the Online Ecosystem to be our growth catalyst going forward.

第一季桌面生態系統營收成長了7%。需要說明的是，我們桌面會計解決方案的訂閱模式使得這部分收入更具可預測性。 9月份，我們提高了部分桌面產品的價格，使其與QBO的定價更加一致。 QuickBooks Desktop Enterprise的營收在本季度實現了中等個位數的成長。我們仍然預期線上生態系統將成為我們未來成長的催化劑。

Moving on to Credit Karma. Revenue grew 2% to $425 million in Q1. This was below our expectations of mid-single-digit growth we shared at Investor Day due to further deterioration in all verticals the last few weeks of the quarter. On a product basis, revenue growth was driven primarily by credit cards, offset by headwinds in personal loans, home loans, auto insurance and auto loans. As the macro environment continues to remain uncertain, we're seeing an impact across all verticals. Sasan touched on this briefly earlier, but let me unpack what we're seeing.

接下來是Credit Karma。第一季營收成長2%至4.25億美元。由於季度末最後幾週所有業務板塊的業績進一步下滑，這一增長低於我們在投資者日上預期的個位數中段增長。從產品來看，營收成長主要由信用卡業務推動，但個人貸款、房屋貸款、汽車保險和汽車貸款業務的下滑抵消了部分成長。由於宏觀環境持續不明朗，我們看到所有業務板塊都受到了影響。 Sasan之前已經簡要提及過這一點，但讓我詳細分析一下我們目前的情況。

In credit cards, many financial institution partners have tightened eligibility, particularly in riskier segments. In personal loans, we saw continued pressure with many partners tightening eligibility further while increasing APRs. We continue to expect personal loan revenue to decline this year after very strong growth in fiscal 2022. As a result, we are reducing our fiscal 2023 Credit Karma revenue guidance to a decline of 15% to 10%. This embeds the current trends we're seeing and additional conservatism in the remainder of the year despite the expected continued rollout of several new innovations.

在信用卡領域，許多金融機構合作夥伴收緊了申請資格，尤其是在風險較高的領域。在個人貸款領域，我們看到持續的壓力，許多合作夥伴在提高年利率的同時，進一步收緊了申請資格。我們預計，在經歷了2022財年的強勁成長之後，今年的個人貸款收入將會下滑。因此，我們將Credit Karma 2023財年的營收預期下調至下降10%至15%。這項調整反映了我們目前觀察到的趨勢，並反映了我們在今年剩餘時間內保持的謹慎態度，儘管我們預計會繼續推出多項創新措施。

Consumer Group revenue was $150 million, reflecting a strong finish to the tax season. We remain focused on transforming the assisted category in the tax prep market as we head into the next tax season. We're focused on making TurboTax a compelling destination for filers who prefer assistance to complete their taxes accurately and quickly.

消費者業務集團營收達1.5億美元，為本報稅季畫下了圓滿的句點。展望下一個報稅季，我們將繼續專注於革新報稅輔助服務市場。我們將致力於把TurboTax打造成為一個極具吸引力的平台，滿足那些希望藉助輔助服務快速準確地完成報稅的用戶的需求。

Turning to the ProTax Group. Revenue of $34 million was in line with our expectations. Our financial principles guide our decisions remain our long-term commitment and are unchanged. We finished the quarter with approximately $2.7 billion in cash and investments and $7 billion in debt on our balance sheet. We repurchased $519 million of stock during the first quarter. Depending on market conditions and other factors, our aim is to be in the market each quarter. The Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.78 per share payable January 18, 2023. This represents a 15% increase versus last year.

接下來談談ProTax集團。 3400萬美元的營收符合預期。我們的財務原則指導著我們的決策，這仍然是我們的長期承諾，並且不會改變。本季末，我們的資產負債表上約有27億美元的現金和投資，以及70億美元的債務。第一季我們回購了價值5.19億美元的股票。根據市場狀況和其他因素，我們的目標是每個季度都進行股票回購。董事會批准了每股0.78美元的季度股息，將於2023年1月18日支付。這比去年同期成長了15%。

As I shared last quarter, we have an operating system we use to run the company, and this includes a proven playbook for operating in both good and difficult economic times. Our first priority is to do the right thing for customers giving them access to the tools and offerings they need most. We manage for the short and long term and control discretionary spend to deliver strong results while investing in what is most important for future growth.

正如我上個季度所分享的，我們擁有一套營運公司所依賴的作業系統，其中包括一套行之有效的策略，無論經濟狀況好壞，都能有效應對。我們的首要任務是為客戶提供最合適的工具和服務，確保他們能夠獲得最需要的工具和產品。我們兼顧短期和長期發展，控制可自由支配的支出，力求取得優異的業績，同時投資於對未來成長至關重要的領域。

The scale of our platform, along with our rich data, gives us the unique ability to see leading indicators that allow us to be forward-looking and adjust quickly. As Sasan shared earlier, we are reiterating our operating income and earnings per share expectation for fiscal year 2023 despite our lower revenue expectations for Credit Karma. We're able to do this by reducing spend in areas where we expect to see lower returns near term.

我們平台的規模以及豐富的數據，賦予我們獨特的優勢，使我們能夠洞察先機，快速做出調整。正如Sasan先前所說，儘管我們下調了Credit Karma的營收預期，但我們仍重申2023財年的營業收入和每股盈餘預期。我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們削減了在短期內預期回報較低的領域的支出。

Last quarter, I mentioned we identified several levers we can pull to deliver against our financial principles in a variety of scenarios, and the adjustments we have made are an example. Given the breadth of our offerings and the power of our diversified platform, we have the ability to maintain earnings power despite our expectation for lower Credit Karma revenue. At the same time, we have the ability to make the necessary platform and product investments for the future while delivering on our short- and long-term commitments. We also have a strong balance sheet that enables us to play offense. We will continue to accelerate our innovation, and our goal remains for Intuit to emerge from this period of macro uncertainty in a position of strength.

上個季度，我提到我們已確定了多種應對各種情況以實現財務目標的有效途徑，而我們所做的調整便是例證。鑑於我們豐富的產品和服務以及多元化平台的強大實力，即使我們預期 Credit Karma 的收入會下降，我們仍然能夠保持獲利能力。同時，我們有能力在履行短期和長期承諾的同時，為未來進行必要的平台和產品投資。此外，我們穩健的資產負債表也使我們能夠積極主動地應對挑戰。我們將繼續加速創新，並始終致力於使 Intuit 在當前宏觀經濟不確定時期後，以強勁的姿態走出困境。

Moving on to guidance. For fiscal 2023, we are lowering our revenue guidance for Credit Karma as trends in all verticals further deteriorated in the last few weeks of the quarter and into November. We now expect revenue to decline 15% to 10% versus our previous guidance range of 10% to 15% revenue growth. We are reiterating our revenue expectations for all other segments and now expect total company revenue growth of 10% to 12% versus the previous range of 14% to 16%.

接下來是業績展望。鑑於本季最後幾週以及11月所有業務部門的趨勢進一步惡化，我們下調了2023財年Credit Karma的營收預期。我們目前預計營收將下降10%至15%，而先前的預期為營收成長10%至15%。我們重申對其他所有業務部門的營收預期，目前預計公司整體營收成長率為10%至12%，而先前的預期為14%至16%。

For the Small Business and Self-Employed Group, we continue to expect 19% to 20% revenue growth. And for the Consumer Group, we continue to expect 9% to 10% revenue growth. In both businesses, we expect the majority of our growth this year to come from customer growth and mix.

我們仍然預期小型企業和個體經營者業務的收入成長率為 19% 至 20%。對於消費者業務，我們仍然預期營收成長率為 9% 至 10%。在這兩個業務領域，我們預計今年的大部分成長將來自客戶數量的成長和客戶結構的變化。

We are reiterating our GAAP and non-GAAP operating income and earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2023. This demonstrates the resiliency of our diversified platform and business model.

我們重申2023財年GAAP和非GAAP營業收入及每股盈餘預期。這體現了我們多元化平台和商業模式的韌性。

So to recap, for fiscal year 2023, we expect total company revenue growth of 10% to 12%, GAAP operating income growth of 9% to 13%, non-GAAP operating income growth of 17% to 19%, GAAP diluted earnings per share to decline approximately 5% to 1%, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share growth of 15% to 17%.

綜上所述，我們預期 2023 財年公司總營收成長 10% 至 12%，GAAP 營業收入成長 9% 至 13%，非 GAAP 營業收入成長 17% 至 19%，GAAP 稀釋後每股盈餘下降約 5% 至 1%，非 GAAP 稀釋後每股盈餘成長 15% 至每股 17%。

Our guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 includes revenue growth of 8% to 9%, GAAP loss per share of $0.29 to $0.23, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.41 to $1.45. You can also find our full fiscal 2023 and Q2 guidance details in our press release and on our fact sheet.

我們對2023財年第二季的業績預期包括：營收成長8%至9%，GAAP每股虧損0.29美元至0.23美元，非GAAP每股收益1.41美元至1.45美元。您也可以在我們的新聞稿和概況介紹中找到完整的2023財年及第二季業績預期詳情。

And with that, I'll turn it back over to Sasan.

好了，現在我把麥克風交還給薩桑。

Great. Thank you, Michelle. As you all heard from Michelle and I, we're seeing continued momentum as a result of our strategy of being a global AI-driven expert platform, growing Intuit double digits with margin expansion. With our accelerated organic innovation and the addition of Credit Karma and Mailchimp, we are the leading global financial technology platform that powers prosperity for people and communities.

太好了。謝謝你，米歇爾。正如大家從我和米歇爾那裡聽到的，我們正憑藉打造全球人工智慧驅動型專家平台的策略，持續保持成長勢頭，Intuit 實現了兩位數的成長，利潤率也隨之提升。隨著我們加速推進內部創新，並收購了 Credit Karma 和 Mailchimp，我們已成為領先的全球金融科技平台，致力於為個人和社區創造繁榮。

And with that, let me turn it over to your questions.

那麼，接下來就交給各位提問吧。

Our first question will come from the line of Siti Panigrahi with Mizuho.

我們的第一個問題將來自瑞穗銀行的 Siti Panigrahi。

Sasan, you lowered your Credit Karma growth now from 10% to 15% growth to decline now 15% to 10%. Just want to dig a little bit into your assumption for the remaining quarters in this fiscal year. Where do you see -- how conservative is this guidance? And I know that the Karma guarantee will be rolled out sometime later this year. Where can we see some kind of upside surprise if macro stays at the current level?

Sasan，你之前把Credit Karma的成長預期從10%到15%下調至10%。我想深入了解你對本財年剩餘幾季的預測。你覺得這個預測保守程度如何？我知道Karma擔保會在今年稍後推出。如果宏觀經濟維持現狀，我們能否看到一些意想不到的利好因素？

Yes. Thanks for your question, Siti. So a couple of things. One, as you heard from Michelle, we took the current sort of trends that we were seeing in sort of end of October into November into account. But we also very intentionally included further conservatism, deterioration just to be prudent.

是的，謝謝你的提問，Siti。有幾點要說明。第一，正如你從Michelle那裡聽到的，我們考慮到了10月底到11月初的趨勢。但為了謹慎起見，我們也特意加入了更保守的預測，考慮到了情況可能會進一步惡化。

And so when we look at things around delinquency rates and unemployment, which is really what financial institutions look at to make future decisions, although they are at historical lows, the assumption is that they're going to deteriorate. And so we just assumed that they will significantly deteriorate, and we wanted to include that in our go-forward guidance.

因此，當我們審視違約率和失業率等指標時——這些指標正是金融機構制定未來決策的重要參考——儘管目前處於歷史低位，但我們仍然預期它們會惡化。所以我們假設這些指標會顯著惡化，並將此納入了我們未來的績效指引中。

We take a lot of pride in the commitments that we make at the company level, and we want to make sure that we're very prudent in terms of the assumptions that we made with the guidance going forward.

我們對公司層面所做的承諾感到非常自豪，我們希望確保在未來的發展指導中，我們在所做的假設方面非常謹慎。

With that said, I think what I would amplify is our innovation that we talked about at Investor Day. Beyond things like Karma Guarantee, we are actually -- we have launched, it's almost at full scale, something called the Marketplace, where we're giving more exposure to personalized experiences around cards and personal loans to our members.

綜上所述，我想重點強調我們在投資者日上提到的創新。除了像Karma Guarantee這樣的服務之外，我們實際上已經推出了一個名為「市場」（Marketplace）的平台，幾乎已經全面投入營運。在這個平台上，我們將為會員提供更多個人化的信用卡和個人貸款體驗。

And now with the integration of Mint and Credit Karma, which was part of our refreshed Big Bet 3 vision that we talked about at Investor Day, we expect in the future to have additional sort of capabilities and innovations for our prime customers, which has not been our sweet spot in -- on the Credit Karma platform.

現在，隨著 Mint 和 Credit Karma 的整合（這是我們在投資者日上提到的「三大重磅投資」願景的一部分），我們預計未來將為我們的主要客戶提供更多類型的功能和創新，而這並非我們擅長的領域——在 Credit Karma 平台上。

So we are leaning into our innovation and those possibilities. We are not counting on any of that impacting the growth rate that you just heard from Michelle and I for the fiscal year, and we just simply believe that's the right thing to do.

所以我們正在大力推動創新，探索各種可能性。我們並不指望這些會對剛才我和米歇爾提到的本財年增長率產生任何影響，我們只是堅信這是正確的做法。

Great. And then a quick follow-up on the small business side. That's pretty impressive quarter, and it grew 19% organically. And if I look at your guidance for remaining 3 quarters, you just have to grow 14% to hit your guidance. You already -- like you talked about price mix shift and -- or you already raised pricing 10% to 25%. So what are you seeing in the small business side? And what are your assumptions for the remaining of the year?

好的。接下來我想快速了解小型企業業務方面的情況。這個季度業績相當亮眼，實現了19%的有機成長。如果我看一下您對剩餘三個季度的業績指引，只需要成長14%就能達到目標。您之前提到價格結構調整，也已經將價格調高了10%到25%。那麼，您對小型企業業務的現狀有何看法？您對今年剩餘時間的業績有何預期？

Yes. Sure. Absolutely. First of all, I would start by saying we have a lot of visibility into things around consumer spending, which is charge volume. We see the number of employees, whether they're going up and down. We see a number of hours worked. We see cash reserves. And of course, there's our metrics around acquisition, retention, payments and payroll volume and also what we see across Mailchimp.

是的，當然。絕對沒問題。首先，我想說我們對消費者支出（也就是消費額）的了解非常深入。我們能看到員工人數的增減情況，也能看到員工的工作時間和現金儲備。當然，我們也有關於獲客、留存、支付和薪資額的指標，以及我們在Mailchimp平台上的各項數據。

And what we're seeing across the board is a continued flight to digitization. If you use our payments capability, you get paid faster, and cash flow is more critical in this environment. If you use our payroll capabilities, you're actually able to reduce errors and pay your employees and have money moved from your bank account to their bank account same day versus 2 weeks in advance.

我們看到，各行各業都在持續轉型為數位化。使用我們的支付功能，您可以更快收到款項，而現金流在當前環境下至關重要。使用我們的薪資管理功能，您可以有效減少錯誤，當天即可向員工支付工資，款項將從您的銀行帳戶轉入員工的銀行帳戶，而無需像以往那樣提前兩週。

With the use -- innovation that you've heard from us on Mailchimp, we're actually starting to see customer growth tick up. And so those are just illustrative examples are -- we're just continuing to see based on our innovation a flight to digitization, which is the strength that you heard from us in the first quarter. And we expect that momentum to continue the rest of the year. And we remain steadfast on our guidance until we see more quarters, but it is not at all about our sentiment about small business. We actually feel very good about what we're seeing across the board in small business.

正如您在我們之前所了解的，Mailchimp 的創新應用程式確實帶來了客戶成長的加速。這些只是幾個例子，我們持續看到，基於我們的創新，數位轉型勢頭強勁，這也是我們在第一季重點強調的。我們預計這一增長勢頭將在今年餘下的時間裡持續下去。在看到更多季度數據之前，我們將堅持先前的業績預期，但這並非出於我們對小型企業的悲觀情緒。事實上，我們對小型企業的整體發展狀況感到非常樂觀。

Your next question will come from the line of Brad Sills with Bank of America Securities.

你的下一個問題將來自美國銀行證券的布拉德·西爾斯。

Just a question on the reiterated operating income guide. You lowered top line by, it looks like, about $700 million, yet you're able to sustain your operating income guidance, which is impressive and it speaks to the flexibility in your model. Michelle, you alluded to some adjustments that were made. If you could just provide a little bit of color as to where those adjustments were made in the business.

關於重申的營業收入預期，我有個問題。你們似乎將營收預期下調了約7億美元，但仍維持了營業收入預期，這令人印象深刻，也體現了你們商業模式的靈活性。米歇爾，你提到了一些調整。能否詳細說明一下這些調整具體體現在業務的哪些方面？

Yes. Brad...

是的，布拉德…

Sorry, Michelle, go ahead. I was going to ask who the question was for. But Michelle, please go ahead.

抱歉，米歇爾，你先說。我本來想問這個問題是誰的。不過，米歇爾，請你先說。

No worries. No worries. Thank you, Brad. Yes, it is one of the things that we feel very good about. As I talked about on a previous call, when we were going through our planning for this year, we were really looking at making sure we had identified areas that we could take action on, the levers we could pull if we did see the macro environment get worse. Those things look like marketing expenses, things that we just don't think are going to pay off in the near term; other areas like travel, discretionary spend. But we are protecting R&D and our innovation.

別擔心，別擔心。謝謝你，布拉德。是的，這是我們感到非常欣慰的事情之一。正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的，在製定今年的計劃時，我們著重確保已經確定了可以採取行動的領域，以及如果宏觀環境惡化，我們可以採取的應對措施。這些措施包括行銷支出，我們認為這些支出在短期內不會帶來回報；還有差旅、可自由支配支出等其他領域。但我們會保護研發和創新。

And we are continuing to invest. Our investments and our head count continue to go up across the company. And yes, Credit Karma, we have taken the revenue down with a revenue hit there. But when we look at really being able to manage our expenses, it is looking across the company holistically and really focusing on the areas where we think we're not going to see as much return in the short term so that we can continue to focus longer term and drive the innovation.

我們仍在持續投資。公司各部門的投資和員工人數都在增加。沒錯，Credit Karma 的收入確實受到了一些影響，因此我們降低了其營收。但要真正有效地控制支出，我們需要從整體上審視公司，並專注於那些短期內回報可能不高的領域，這樣才能讓我們專注於長期發展，推動創新。

Excellent. And Sasan, one for you, if I may, please. Last year, we saw a little bit of moderation in TurboTax ASP growth. You talked a little bit about that at the Analyst Day. I think it was 4% on paid ARPU versus, I think, 8% in prior years. If you could elaborate a bit on what went on there. And should we see some acceleration here? Now that you're getting into more experience with TT Live and full service, might we actually see some acceleration in TurboTax ARPU?

太好了。薩桑，如果可以的話，我想問你一個問題。去年，TurboTax 的平均售價 (ASP) 成長略有放緩。你在分析師日上也談到了這一點。我記得付費用戶的平均每用戶收入 (ARPU) 成長率是 4%，而前幾年是 8%。能詳細解釋一下具體原因嗎？我們是否會看到成長加速？現在你對 TT Live 和全方位服務越來越熟悉，TurboTax 的 ARPU 是否有可能真正加速成長？

Sure. Absolutely. I think the way to think about it is in the long term and from a trajectory perspective, we should see ARPU go up. And now every year, strategically, we make decisions in terms of where we may expand our free offering or where we may increase price based on the leverage that we see in the marketplace, which is primarily in our assisted offerings. And those were some of the adjustments that we made last year.

當然。絕對的。我認為應該從長遠角度，從發展軌跡的角度來看，我們應該會看到ARPU值上升。現在，我們每年都會根據市場狀況（主要體現在我們的輔助服務產品中）做出策略決策，決定在哪些方面擴大免費服務範圍，或在哪些方面提高價格。這些就是我們去年所做的一些調整。

And as we look into this year, we actually feel very good about our do-it-yourself platform lineup. And really, our biggest leverage is going to come from accelerating what we're seeing across the TurboTax Live platform, which is really where the growth is coming from. It's really where the ARPU comes from, and it's where our biggest opportunity is with a $20 billion TAM in front of us. And of course, over time, opening up an additional $10 billion TAM with business taxes.

展望今年，我們對自助報稅平台的產品線感到非常滿意。事實上，我們最大的優勢將來自於加速TurboTax Live平台的發展，而這正是我們成長的真正動力所在。 ARPU（每位用戶平均收入）主要來自該平台，我們面前擁有200億美元的潛在市場，這也是我們最大的機會。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們也將開拓企業稅領域，進一步擴大100億美元的潛在市場。

So that was really the intent and the logic behind why ARPU was probably a little bit slower growth last year versus prior years. And I think the way to think about it is we're going to continue to see ARPU growth into the future, and a lot of it will come from the assisted segment. And that's really part of our plan that we're executing against this coming year.

所以，這就是去年ARPU成長速度可能比往年略慢的原因和邏輯。我認為，我們應該著眼於未來ARPU的成長，而其中很大一部分成長將來自輔助型房屋市場。這正是我們明年計劃執行的重要組成部分。

Your next question will come from the line of Brad Zelnick with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的布拉德·澤爾尼克。

Can you guys hear me?

你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes. Perfect.

是的，完美。

Great. Sasan, you guys are always very transparent, great disclosure. And my question is maybe a little bit bigger picture. Can you talk about the opportunity to open up and externalize into its platform services to third parties for developing their own apps with live expert functionality, rich data services, money movement perhaps, and the things that are making you so successful?

太好了。 Sasan，你們一直都很透明，資訊揭露做得很好。我的問題可能比較宏觀一些。你們能否談談向第三方開放平台服務，讓他們能夠開發自己的應用程序，並提供實時專家功能、豐富的數據服務、資金流動等功能，以及其他讓你們如此成功的因素？

Yes. Absolutely. Great question. This was actually, at Investor Day, one of our, what we call Horizon 3 ideas that we have invested in, which is around externalizing services. So first and foremost, we do see a big problem space out there where developers and partners and firms look to access and have a need for things like around our virtual expert platform services to connect people to experts, or had a use for our identity services and have a use for our fraud and risk capabilities. So there's a lot of services that we have across our platform that you heard Mariana talk about of which there is a need for those services externally.

是的，沒錯。問得好。這實際上是我們在投資者日上重點介紹的「第三階段」投資理念之一，即服務外包。首先，我們看到一個很大的問題領域：開發者、合作夥伴和公司需要使用我們的虛擬專家平台服務，以便將使用者與專家聯繫起來；或需要使用我們的身分識別服務以及詐欺和風險管理功能。正如您剛才聽到的，我們平台上有很多服務，而這些服務在外部也確實有需求。

Now we want to be very choiceful and intentional what we choose to externalize and what we choose not to externalize and what problems we choose to solve and which ones we intentionally choose not to solve. But we do believe it as an opportunity. It's actually something that we funded about a little bit over 15 months ago, and we have a mission-based team that is working on it. And when we have more to share in terms of launches and anything that we think over time will be material for all of you to be aware, we'll be the first to share with you. But we do see it as an exciting Horizon 3 idea that's been funded and are excited about the prospects of it.

現在，我們希望在選擇對外公開的內容、選擇不對外公開的內容、選擇解決的問題以及有意選擇不解決的問題時，能夠非常謹慎和有意識地做出決定。但我們確實認為這是一個機會。事實上，我們在15個月前就為此專案提供了資金，我們有一個以任務為導向的團隊正在負責這項工作。當我們在專案啟動以及任何我們認為未來值得大家關注的資訊方面有更多進展時，我們會第一時間與大家分享。但我們確實認為這是一個令人興奮的「地平線3」計畫項目，它已經獲得了資金支持，我們對它的前景感到非常興奮。

Your next question will come from the line of Raimo Lenschow with Barclays.

你的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的雷莫·倫肖。

I wanted to ask on Mailchimp. So last quarter, you pointed out that you were kind of working on go-to-market a little bit. You wanted to adjust that. This sound -- this quarter, you sounded better, and it looks like you're using Mailchimp like the lead to go -- to attack the international markets more broadly. Can you speak a little bit about what you do there, the progress that you're making, where you are in that journey, please?

我想問一下關於Mailchimp的問題。上個季度，您提到您正在調整市場推廣策略，希望能有所改善。這個季度，您聽起來更有信心，而且似乎您正在利用Mailchimp作為主要管道，更廣泛地開拓國際市場。您能否談談您在這方面的工作、取得的進展以及目前的進展？

Yes. Absolutely. First of all, I'll just state that I'm really excited about Rania that we just put into the business and the leadership team that she is building in. It is the result of that leadership team where we are seeing accelerated innovation. And as I mentioned a moment ago, there's been a lot of innovation just in the last sort of 3 to 4 months in Mailchimp from an entirely new brand campaign where we communicate the benefit to how you can grow your business to SMBs, both on air and on -- through digital assets.

是的，當然。首先，我要說的是，我對Rania的加入以及她正在組建的領導團隊感到非常興奮。正是這個領導團隊的領導，使得我們能夠加速創新。正如我剛才提到的，在過去的3到4個月裡，Mailchimp進行了大量創新，包括一項全新的品牌推廣活動，旨在向中小企業傳達Mailchimp如何幫助他們發展業務，無論是在傳統媒體還是數位平台上。

We've redesigned our website. So when you come to us, you're very clear about the benefits that we offer, the choices that you have and why it can help fuel the success of your business, to then revamping the first-time use experience, along with what we have just implemented for, I would say, higher-value, larger Mailchimp customers and new customers that we want to pursue, which is a 1-hour assisted onboarding to help you get on to the platform, to help you understand the benefits of the platform.

我們重新設計了網站。因此，當您聯繫我們時，您可以非常清楚地了解我們提供的優勢、您的選擇以及它如何幫助您的企業取得成功。此外，我們也改進了首次使用體驗，並針對我們想要爭取的高價值、大型 Mailchimp 客戶和新客戶推出了一項新功能：1 小時協助註冊，幫助您快速上手平台，並了解平台的優勢。

And in context of what we've shared around international and Mailchimp as sort of the lead internationally, we are right now focused on localizing the language. Where we have localized language versus not, we have more than 13 points conversion variants. And so of course, localized language is one of our largest levers internationally, along with having a playbook that we're putting in place around go-to-market to raise awareness.

結合我們先前分享的國際業務以及Mailchimp在國際業務中的領先地位，我們目前專注於語言在地化。本地化語言和非本地化語言的轉換率差異超過13個百分點。因此，在地化語言是我們拓展國際業務的重要槓桿之一，同時我們也正在製定一套市場推廣策略來提升品牌知名度。

So a lot of those things we have already launched that I mentioned, and the localizing languages we're working on as we speak. And a lot of what we -- what I just shared, we're starting to see a real impact from customer uptick, expansion revenue. And we're excited about the possibilities and the momentum that the leadership team is building.

我已經推出了很多我剛才提到的功能，而且我們正在努力進行在地化工作。我剛才分享的這些，我們已經開始看到客戶成長和收入擴張帶來的實質效果。我們對領導團隊正在建立的這種發展勢頭和各種可能性感到非常興奮。

Your next question will come from the line of Kirk Materne with Evercore.

你的下一個問題將來自柯克·馬特恩 (Kirk Materne) 和 Evercore 的系列文章。

Congrats on a good quarter. Sasan, you all are in a somewhat unique position that you get to see demand -- sort of demand on both the front-office side as well as sort of the back-office side with Mailchimp and then QuickBooks. I was wondering if you could give us any when you look at the demand indicators from a front-office perspective or a back-office perspective. Are they similar? Are they different?

恭喜你們本季業績出色。 Sasan，你們的處境較為特殊，能夠同時看到前台和後台（例如Mailchimp和QuickBooks）的需求。我想請教一下，從前台和後台的角度來看，你們對需求指標有什麼看法？它們之間有相似之處嗎？又有什麼不同之處？

Is there anything you've noticed now that you get to have some insight into sort of that other part of the -- of essentially the operating ecosystem of your customers? Obviously, there's just a lot of discussion in the market right now between front-office and back-office demand. So I was wondering if you can enlighten us, I guess, with any of your thoughts on that.

現在您對客戶營運生態系統的另一部分有了更深入的了解，有沒有註意到什麼？顯然，目前市場上關於前台和後台需求的討論很多。所以我想請您分享您對此的看法。

Yes. Sure, Kirk. And let me try to be descriptive about it, so I'm not overly generic. I think our customers that we serve, the small businesses between 0 to 100 employees, don't as much think about back office, front office. They just really look to have a platform to be able to grow their business and to be able to manage their cash flow.

是的，當然，柯克。我盡量描述得更具體一些，免得過於籠統。我認為我們服務的客戶，也就是那些員工人數在0到100人之間的小型企業，不太關注後台和前台。他們真正需要的是一個能夠幫助他們發展業務並管理現金流的平台。

So if you think about our QuickBooks platform, let me start there, and I'll get to Mailchimp in a moment. Really, QuickBooks helps you manage your cash flow, all your money coming in and money going out. And the notion of digitization is really important for customers, which is why we're enjoying the growth that we just shared. And that really comes down to customers can use QuickBooks to be organized.

所以，如果您考慮我們的 QuickBooks 平台，我就先從這裡開始說起，稍後我會談到 Mailchimp。實際上，QuickBooks 可以幫助您管理現金流，包括所有收入和支出。數位化對客戶來說至關重要，這也是我們剛才分享的成長如此令人欣喜的原因。歸根結底，客戶可以使用 QuickBooks 來更好地管理財務。

They can get paid much faster with -- using our payments capabilities. They can get access to capital. They can have instant money flow from their bank to their employees' banks by using our payroll. If they're out in the field, they can use our time tracking so everything is automated. All those things are about digitization. And the way small businesses think about it is it actually helps them with their cash flow because we also -- with all those capabilities, project your cash flow. So that's the real big value sort of QuickBooks.

借助我們的支付功能，他們可以更快地收到款項。他們可以獲得資金。透過我們的薪資管理系統，資金可以即時從他們的銀行帳戶流向員工的銀行帳戶。如果他們在外勤，可以使用我們的時間追蹤功能，以實現一切自動化。所有這些都與數位化息息相關。小型企業認為，這些功能實際上有助於改善他們的現金流，因為我們也可以利用這些功能來預測現金流。這才是 QuickBooks 的真正價值所在。

And then you add to that Mailchimp. The real value of Mailchimp is don't think about it as these are not enterprise customers. These are smaller -- small businesses that where their sort of lifeline comes from being able to reach out and manage their existing customers, but also effectively be able to grow their customer base. And so the reason we're continuing to see an uptick based on our innovation and based on just good execution. And I think the best is yet ahead of us in Mailchimp, is that is separate and distinct from do I spend more money on advertising dollars. When you use Mailchimp, you have the ability to use our tools with a subscription that you pay on a monthly basis to be able to, in an automated way, reach out to your customers, market to new customers. And we're seeing sort of equal demand, if I go back to your frame of front office versus back office. I think where there is slower spend and declining is spending money on advertising dollars.

然後再加上 Mailchimp。 Mailchimp 的真正價值在於，不要把它當作企業客戶。這些客戶是規模較小的企業－他們的生命線在於能夠聯繫並管理現有客戶，同時也能有效拓展客戶群。因此，我們持續看到成長的原因在於我們的創新和出色的執行力。我認為 Mailchimp 的潛力遠不止於此，它與「是否應該增加廣告支出」完全不同。使用 Mailchimp，您可以按月訂閱我們的工具，以自動化的方式聯繫現有客戶並向新客戶行銷。如果我們回到您之前提到的前台和後台的框架，您會發現兩者的需求基本上持平。我認為，支出成長放緩甚至下降的領域是廣告支出。

That is not what Mailchimp is. Mailchimp is not impacted by advertising dollars. It's actually a -- it's a platform that you use to be able to manage your customers even if you choose to spend less advertising dollars. You can still use Mailchimp very effectively to be able to manage your customers. So that's why the demand is strong with Mailchimp and QuickBooks, and that's really what we see across the platform.

Mailchimp 的本質並非如此。它不受廣告投入的影響。實際上，它是一個平台，即使您減少廣告支出，也能幫助您管理客戶。您仍然可以非常有效地使用 Mailchimp 來管理客戶。這就是為什麼 Mailchimp 和 QuickBooks 的需求都很強勁，而這正是我們在整個平台上看到的普遍現象。

Your next question will come from the line of Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯。

Next quarter in Q1. The question that we're all going to get tomorrow from investors is, is the outlook derisked? So I wanted to dig into kind of like your guys thought process. When you're talking about Credit Karma, you told us that -- you looked at sort of the trends that happened in -- at the end of the quarter in the last couple of weeks, and you assume that those trends deteriorate a little bit further on a go-forward basis to get a conservative Credit Karma guide.

下一季，也就是第一季。明天投資人一定會問，前景是否已經降低風險？所以我想深入了解你們的思路。你們在談到信用評級時提到，你們觀察了上一季末最後幾週的趨勢，並假設這些趨勢在未來會進一步惡化，從而得出較為保守的信用評級預測。

Can you talk to us about -- like you didn't change any of the other numbers. All the other sort of business lines are kind of intact with your prior expectations. But is there any similar kind of derisking then? Like are you assuming any degradation in the underlying business for QBO or Mailchimp or like any of the other businesses in a similar way you are Credit Karma?

您能跟我們談談嗎——就好像您沒有改變任何其他數字一樣。所有其他業務線基本上都符合您先前的預期。但是，是否有類似的風險規避措施？例如，您是否像對待 Credit Karma 一樣，假設 QBO、Mailchimp 或其他類似業務的基礎業務出現任何下滑？

Yes. Keith, thank you for your question. And I just want to acknowledge that you and others were pushing us on our Credit Karma guide at Investor Day. And let me just start at the top level to share sort of what we've learned and what we've adjusted, and then I'll answer your question.

是的，基思，謝謝你的提問。我想感謝你和其他人，在投資者日上，你們一直在敦促我們完善Credit Karma指南。我先從最基本的層面分享我們從中學到了哪些經驗教訓，以及我們做了哪些調整，然後再回答你的問題。

When we look across tax, which is 35% of the company; and then when you look at across small business, which is over 50% of the company, so that's like 86% of the company, we have sort of -- which includes Mailchimp, we have proven and tried KPIs that allows us to see things well into sort of the future not only to ensure that we're investing in all the right things, but also be able to be very intentional and thoughtful about how we guide because we take our guidance very seriously.

當我們縱觀公司各項業務，其中稅務業務占公司總業務的 35%；而小型企業業務占公司總業務的 50% 以上，兩者合計占公司總業務的 86%。我們擁有（包括 Mailchimp 在內的）經過驗證和實踐的 KPI，這使我們能夠預見未來，不僅確保我們投資於所有正確的事情，而且還能夠非常有意識、深思熟慮地進行指導，因為我們非常重視我們的指導。

One of the things that we learned with Credit Karma is there are 2 factors that we look at but we did not take into account: one is unemployment, the other is delinquency rate. And what I mean by that, not taking it into account as we view it, we look at it, and they're at historical lows. And the one thing that we learned from this process, what we are adjusting and have adjusted our KPIs is just looking at where they are today, but also projecting where they could be a year from now. And ultimately, projecting what could happen if we were sitting in the shoes of some of the partners that are on our platform.

我們從 Credit Karma 的經驗中學到的一點是，我們關注的兩個因素之前被忽略了：一個是失業率，另一個是違約率。我的意思是，我們之前沒有把這兩個因素考慮進去，但實際上，這兩個指標都處於歷史低點。我們從這個過程中學到的一點是，我們正在調整併已經調整了我們的關鍵績效指標 (KPI)，不僅關注當前的指標水平，還要預測一年後的情況。最終，我們要設身處地站在我們平台夥伴的角度去思考可能出現的情況。

So that is a very important shift, which actually gets at the point you made around our Credit Karma guidance. We feel that it is absolutely derisked. We -- as you heard from Michelle and I, we have built a deterioration and conservatism in the back half of the year because we have taken into account uptick in both unemployment and delinquency rates, and therefore, have put out a guidance that we believe is derisked.

所以這是一個非常重要的轉變，實際上也正契合了您之前提到的關於我們Credit Karma業績指引的觀點。我們認為風險已經完全降低。正如您從我和Michelle那裡聽到的，我們考慮到失業率和違約率的上升，在下半年調整了預期，並採取了更為保守的策略，因此，我們發布了我們認為風險已經降低的業績指引。

To go to the second part of your question, tax, which is 35% of the company, that is really economically resilient. So let me focus my answer on Small Business. Because of our KPIs and the rich data that we have access to and what we see within Small Business, we actually feel like our guidance in Small Business is derisked because we make certain assumptions around how things will potentially play out the remainder of the year that we took into account when we set the initial guidance, and we still feel very good about the guidance. And you can see based on what we delivered in Q1, we can just do the math and see what it means for the rest of the year. So we feel very good about the way we set guidance in those 2 businesses. We feel very good about the guidance in those areas for the rest of the year. And hopefully, my explanation made sense around Credit Karma.

關於您問題的第二部分，稅收占公司總成本的35%，這部分業務在經濟上具有很強的韌性。因此，我將重點放在小型企業業務上。基於我們的關鍵績效指標 (KPI)、我們掌握的豐富數據以及我們對小型企業業務的觀察，我們認為小型企業業務的業績指引風險較低，因為我們在製定初始指引時已考慮到了對今年剩餘時間可能出現的情況的一些假設，而且我們仍然對目前的指引充滿信心。您可以根據我們第一季的業績，進行簡單的計算，就能看出這對今年剩餘時間意味著什麼。因此，我們對這兩個業務領域的業績指引設定非常有信心，也對今年剩餘時間的業績指引充滿信心。希望我關於Credit Karma的解釋能讓您理解。

Got it. Yes, that's super helpful. And then just one clarification question. On Mailchimp, it looks like the revenues was basically flat, maybe down a little bit sequentially. I'm assuming there is a currency impact in there. Can you -- is there like a constant currency number that we could see kind of like how it grew sequentially?

明白了。是的，這很有幫助。還有一個問題想請教一下。關於 Mailchimp，看起來營收基本上持平，可能比去年同期略有下降。我猜想這其中可能存在匯率波動的影響。您能否提供一個以固定匯率計算的數據，讓我們看看它是如何環比增長的？

Yes. It's actually -- it is in constant currency. I mean maybe, Michelle, I'll let you chime in here in a moment. But I think what I would say is we -- when you look at our innovation and when you look at our customer uptick and the expansion revenue that we're starting to see, it's actually very much in line with what we would have expected because a lot of our innovation that is in place is actually now accelerating the growth of the business.

是的。實際上，它是按固定匯率計算的。米歇爾，我稍後會讓你補充一下。但我想說的是，當你看到我們的創新、客戶成長以及我們開始看到的營收擴張時，你會發現這一切實際上與我們的預期非常吻合，因為我們現有的許多創新正在加速業務成長。

Because remember, this business was run for cash flow and profitability, and now we're running it for growth. And we're actually quite pleased with the impact that we're starting to see, and we would expect that to accelerate in the upcoming quarters. But Michelle, do you want to chime in on the currency version?

記住，這家公司之前是為了現金流和盈利而運營的，現在我們是為了成長而經營的。我們對目前開始看到的成效相當滿意，並且預計未來幾季成長速度會加快。不過，米歇爾，你對匯率有什麼看法嗎？

Yes. The only thing I would clarify is that Mailchimp actually sold at U.S. dollars, and so there isn't a currency impact there for the international, even though 50% of their sales are outside the U.S.

是的。我唯一要澄清的是，Mailchimp 實際上是以美元結算的，因此即使其 50% 的銷售額來自美國以外地區，國際銷售額也不會受到匯率的影響。

Your next question will come from the line of Kash Rangan with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題將來自高盛的卡什·蘭甘。

Congrats on the results. Sasan and Michelle, curious to get your perspective. We don't like recessions, but this is a recession -- maybe it's a recession that we've all been anticipating. It's the most widely anticipated one. So what are the assumptions that you have incorporated in your forecasting for the foreseeable future? I mean, is it an uptick in attrition or maybe the expansion rates come down a little bit? I'm just curious to get your thoughts on what you've dialed in with your current go around of trajections.

恭喜你們取得這樣的成績。薩桑和米歇爾，很想聽聽你們的看法。我們都不喜歡經濟衰退，但這次確實是一場衰退——或許是我們所有人都在預料之中的衰退。這是預期最廣泛的一次。那麼，你們在預測未來一段時間的情況時都做了哪些假設呢？我的意思是，是員工流動率上升，還是經濟成長率略為下降？我很好奇你們在目前的預測中都做了哪些調整。

And also, Sasan, if you could talk about payments. You clearly demoed at the analyst event, very, very impressive. Clearly, it's got a lot of potential. What should we be expecting? What are you expecting in your payments business in the medium term to long term? What are your goals?

薩桑，能否請您談談支付業務？您在分析師活動上的演示非常精彩，令人印象深刻。顯然，支付業務潛力巨大。我們該期待些什麼？您對支付業務的中長期發展有何預期？您的目標是什麼？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Kash. Just in terms of your question around assumptions, I think on Credit Karma, hopefully, what I just shared a moment ago resonated in that. We are assuming sort of further deterioration and conservatism in the back half of the year -- or the remainder of the year, I should say, despite a lot of innovation that is still coming to market because we're just -- we're making assumptions around unemployment going up, delinquency rates getting worse, which means that financial institutions, although we're one of the last platforms they pull off of that they will be conservative in terms of their investment levels. So those are the assumptions that we've made for the remainder of the fiscal year for Credit Karma.

是的，謝謝你的提問，Kash。關於你提到的假設問題，我想剛才我分享的關於Credit Karma的內容應該能引起你的共鳴。我們假設今年下半年（或應該說是今年剩餘時間）情況會進一步惡化，投資策略也會更加保守，儘管市場上仍有許多創新產品。因為我們假設失業率會上升，拖欠率會惡化，這意味著金融機構，即使我們是他們最後才會使用的平台之一，也會在投資水平上保持保守。以上就是我們對Credit Karma本財年剩餘時間的假設。

And for Small Business, a lot of the strength that we're continuing to see is just -- it's a shift to digitization from folks that are already on our platform. So we have a lot of customers that are on our platform. If you remember, we used the figure out there -- there's $2 trillion of invoices being managed on our platform, and we have over $100 million that as part of our -- well over $100 million as part of our payments charge volume, which means we have a huge opportunity to penetrate that within our existing base.

對於小型企業而言，我們持續看到的強勁成長很大程度上源自於現有平台用戶的數位轉型。我們平台上的客戶數量龐大。您可能還記得，我們​​之前提到過，目前平台上管理的發票總額高達2兆美元，其中支付交易額就超過1億美元，這意味著我們在現有客戶群中擁有龐大的拓展空間。

And I use that just as an illustrative example, Kash. To answer your question, we're not making any assumptions around payments uptick because the macro environment will get better in the second half of the year. We're actually assuming that a lot of the growth that we are seeing is just continuing shift to digitization from those that are on our platform.

我只是舉個例子，Kash。回答你的問題，我們並沒有因為宏觀環境會在下半年好轉就對支付成長做出任何假設。實際上，我們認為目前看到的成長很大程度上源自於我們平台上的用戶持續向數位轉型。

And so we make customer acquisition assumptions. We make attrition assumptions. We'll look at assumptions around payments and payroll that are really in the context of how we feel about the environment going forward. Although we're not seeing it within our SMB segment, we are assuming a level of conservatism as we think about the remainder of the year. And those are the assumptions that we've made for both Small Business and Credit Karma.

因此，我們會對客戶獲取和流失情況做出假設。我們也會根據對未來環境的判斷，對支付和薪資的情況做出假設。雖然目前在中小企業市場尚未出現這種情況，但考慮到今年剩餘時間的情況，我們仍會採取較為保守的策略。這些假設適用於小型企業和Credit Karma業務。

And tax, again, tax is economically resilient. We pretty much make assumptions based on our penetration in the assisted segment. And that's really -- that and the total number of IRS returns is where our assumptions come from. And again, those are -- that's economically resilient. So that's how we think about the guide going forward as we just reiterated.

稅收方面，稅收具有很強的經濟韌性。我們基本上是根據我們在受助群體中的滲透率來做出假設的。而這，以及國稅局申報表的總數，就是我們做出假設的依據。同樣，這些因素也具有經濟韌性。正如我們剛才重申的，這就是我們未來制定指南的想法。

In terms of payments, listen, payments is one of the areas that we're the most excited about. If I had to pick a couple of areas, it's Mailchimp, it's payments, and it's what we're doing to go upmarket and with QuickBooks Advanced and mid-market. And with payments, we spent 4 or 5 years building out all of our fraud and risk capabilities, all of our AI capabilities, and we're just innovating very fast with that team.

說到支付領域，說實話，支付是我們最興奮的領域之一。如果非要選幾個方面，那就是Mailchimp、支付，以及我們正在做的進軍高階市場、QuickBooks Advanced和中階市場的工作。在支付方面，我們花了四到五年建立了所有的反詐騙和風險管理能力，以及所有的人工智慧能力，而且我們團隊正在快速創新。

And a lot of the future around what we can do to digitize B2B around what's possible with bill pay, that -- those are yet to come and not even in our forecast going forward. We just believe that there's so much room for penetration attached going forward. So hopefully, our (inaudible) payments has been to your liking, but we think our best is yet ahead of us.

至於未來我們可以在B2B數位領域做些什麼，尤其是在帳單支付方面，許多可能性都尚未實現，甚至不在我們未來的預測之內。我們相信，未來這方面還有巨大的發展空間。所以，希望您喜歡我們目前的付款方式，但我們相信，我們最好的表現還在後頭。

Your next question will come from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.

你的下一個問題將來自斯科特·施內伯格和奧本海默的行列。

Sasan, I'm curious, I'm kind of honing in on Credit Karma and credit cards, which I believe is about half of the revenue. And please correct me if that's changed, perhaps gone up, based on what personal loans has done. But just how are you looking at credit cards? What are you seeing with consumers there?

薩桑，我很好奇，我最近特別關注Credit Karma和信用卡業務，我認為這部分收入佔了公司總收入的一半左右。如果我的估計有變化，例如個人貸款業務的成長，導致這個比例上升了，請指正。您是如何看待信用卡業務的？您觀察到消費者在這方面的表現如何？

I understand it was the strength in that segment of the quarter versus personal loans, home loans, auto loans, auto insurance. What -- specifically in the credit cards, is that strengthening -- or maybe not strengthening, but weakening a lot less? Just honing in on that specific segment, what are you seeing from the consumer?

我了解到，本季該細分市場表現強勁，優於個人貸款、房屋貸款、汽車貸款和汽車保險。具體來說，信用卡業務的情況如何？是持續走強，還是並非走強，而是疲軟程度較小？就該細分市場而言，您從消費者身上觀察到了什麼？

Yes. Sure, Scott. First of all, it is -- as you said, it's a large part of the overall Credit Karma platform. With that said, I'll start with context that when you look at the 129 million customers or members that we serve on Credit Karma, the majority of our focus has been sub-prime and near-prime customers. And that's really a lot of our personalized experiences are for those cohorts.

是的，當然，斯科特。首先，正如你所說，它是整個Credit Karma平台的重要組成部分。話雖如此，我先說明一下背景：在我們Credit Karma服務的1.29億客戶或會員中，我們的大部分精力都集中在次級和準次級客戶身上。我們的個人化體驗也大多是針對這些群體提供的。

And one of the things that we're very excited about that we have shared at Investor Day is we're also building out capabilities and innovation for prime customers. And that's why we shifted Mint over, and we're combining the Mint and Credit Karma platform. So that context is important because as you hear my answer, just hear it from the lens of the majority of where our business comes from is sub-prime and near-prime. In the future, we'll also have capabilities, innovation and ultimately, revenue that will come up front and prime as well, which positions us really well in the marketplace.

我們在投資者日上分享的一項令人興奮的消息是，我們正在為優質客戶建立能力並進行創新。這就是我們整合Mint和Credit Karma平台的原因。這個背景很重要，因為正如您所聽到的，我們的大部分業務都來自次級和準次級貸款。未來，我們還將擁有優質客戶的能力、創新，並最終實現更高的收入，這將使我們在市場中佔據非常有利的地位。

And with all of that said, in essence, yes, we're continuing to see growth in credit cards, but we're actually assuming that, that will really deteriorate the rest of the year based on unemployment going up and delinquency rates going up. And as you heard from both Michelle and I, we have built conservatism into the remainder of the year. And so there's -- which will ultimately result in declining growth rate. But what we saw in Q1 and the growth rate of the 2%, a lot of the headwinds in other verticals was offset by credit cards. But we have assumed that, that will get worse over time.

綜上所述，信用卡業務確實仍在成長，但我們預計，鑑於失業率和拖欠率的上升，今年剩餘時間的成長勢頭將會明顯惡化。正如您從我和米歇爾那裡聽到的，我們已在今年剩餘時間採取了較為保守的策略。因此，最終成長率將會下降。但我們在第一季看到的2%的成長率，抵銷了其他垂直領域許多不利因素的影響。然而，我們預計這種情況會隨著時間的推移而惡化。

Okay. Appreciate that. And then following on -- it's kind of more on the tax side, but overall, the guidance for the second quarter seems to be the most derisked with EPS down year-over-year. And that's an uncommon sequential change. But it sounds like the levers Michelle is pulling, it sounded like marketing and advertising was one of them. I infer that it's more in the small business side. But just curious on the tax side, are you doing anything differently now that we may have a more normal tax season versus the past few with regard to advertising timing or overall?

好的，謝謝。接下來——這更多是關於稅務方面的，但總體而言，第二季度的業績指引風險似乎最低，每股收益同比下降。這是一個不常見的環比變化。但聽起來，米歇爾正在採取一些措施，其中似乎包括行銷和廣告。我推測這與小型企業有關。只是好奇稅務方面，鑑於今年的報稅季可能比往年更正常，你們在廣告投放時間或其他方面是否有任何不同的安排？

Yes. Sure. I'm actually glad you asked about our second quarter guide of 8% to 9%. First of all, our momentum in Small Business continues into Q2. There are 2 elements that drive our guide of 8% to 9% revenue growth in second quarter. One is we always make assumptions for tax.

是的，當然。我很高興您問到我們第二季8%到9%的業績預期。首先，我們在小型企業領域的成長動能延續到了第二季。我們之所以預測第二季營收成長8%到9%，主要有兩個因素。一是我們始終會對稅收做出假設。

As you know, tax is tricky between second quarter and third quarter. And we make assumptions around when the IRS will open, forms availability, and those assumptions drive what we assume will happen in our tax business. And in some cases, we have elements of our tax business that actually we've assumed may decline in the second quarter. So that drives our guidance overall at the company level for Q2.

如您所知，第二季到第三季之間的稅務情況比較複雜。我們會根據國稅局何時恢復辦公室、表格供應等因素做出假設，這些假設會影響我們對稅務業務的預期。在某些情況下，我們預期部分稅務業務在第二季可能會出現下滑。因此，這些因素會影響我們對公司第二季整體業績的預期。

And then Q2 generally has been seasonally the weakest quarter for Credit Karma because of the month of November, December and January and then just the number of holidays. It's seasonally the weakest quarter. So when you combine our assumptions with tax and you combine our assumptions with Credit Karma, that's where you get Q2 where it is. And hopefully, that answers your question.

通常來說，第二季度是Credit Karma業績最淡的季度，因為11月、12月和1月是假日較多的月份。第二季是季節性的淡季。所以，當我們把稅收和Credit Karma的業績假設結合起來考慮時，就得到了第二季目前的業績數據。希望這能解答你的疑問。

It does.

確實如此。

Your next question will come from the line of Alex Zukin with Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Alex Zukin。

This is Allan Verkhovski on for Alex Zukin. I think more people are warming up to your ability in hitting your SMB guide for the year despite the challenging macro. But I want to dig further into what you're seeing in the SMB segment today. Can you talk about what you saw around ARPC growth in the quarter, excluding the benefit you observed from the pricing increases that went into effect? It'd be helpful to get how much of a tailwind the pricing increase was in the quarter for QBO accounting and better understand the quarter how your growth levers, such as customer growth, upselling and cross-selling, were impacted from the macro, if at all?

這裡是Allan Verkhovski，代Alex Zukin。我認為，儘管宏觀經濟形勢充滿挑戰，但越來越多的人開始認可您實現年度中小企業績效目標的能力。我想更深入地了解您目前在中小企業市場中觀察到的情況。您能否談談本季平均每用戶收入 (ARPC) 的成長情況，不包括價格上漲帶來的收益？了解價格上漲在本季對QBO會計的影響程度，以及宏觀經濟狀況對您的成長槓桿（例如客戶成長、追加銷售和交叉銷售）的影響程度（如果有影響的話），將非常有幫助。

Yes. Sure. Absolutely. The majority of our guide for the year and what we also saw in Q1 actually came from customer growth and mix, and mix includes things like QuickBooks Advanced. And you saw from our online services growth of 28%, we're seeing really sort of good growth from Payroll, Payments, Time Tracking. And that, of course, excludes Mailchimp, and we talked about Mailchimp separately.

是的，當然，絕對沒錯。我們全年的業績指引以及第一季的數據，實際上主要來自客戶成長和產品組合的調整，而產品組合也涵蓋了 QuickBooks Advanced 等產品。正如您所看到的，我們的線上服務成長了 28%，薪資管理、支付和時間追蹤等業務也實現了非常可觀的成長。當然，這還不包括 Mailchimp，我們單獨討論了 Mailchimp 的情況。

So I think the short answer to your question is we are seeing the type of balance that we would want, which is our growth coming from customer growth and mix, and price will play an element -- a smaller element, but it plays an important element as we look at not only what we saw in Q1, but what we expect for the remainder of the year.

所以我認為對你問題的簡短回答是，我們看到了我們想要的那種平衡，即我們的增長來自客戶增長和產品組合，價格將發揮一定作用——一個較小的作用，但它在我們審視第一季以及對今年剩餘時間的預期時，都發揮著重要的作用。

Got it. And just as a quick follow-up, if I may. On the Mailchimp front, I want to follow up to Keith's earlier point around Mailchimp revenues being sequentially relatively flat. Could you share maybe something more about maybe conversion rates? Or just a follow-up on the acceleration comment you made through the full year, just anything that could give us more color for how we think about potential revenue growth of Mailchimp for the full year?

明白了。如果可以的話，我想再補充一點。關於Mailchimp，我想就Keith之前提到的Mailchimp營收環比相對平穩這一點做個補充。能否再詳細說說轉換率方面的狀況？或者，能否就您先前提到的全年成長加速情況做個補充說明？任何能幫助我們更全面地了解Mailchimp全年潛在營收成長的資訊都可以。

Yes. Yes. Absolutely. I mean if you go back to when we closed the deal almost a year ago, one of the things that we were very clear about, in addition to our excitement around the asset and the fact that now combined with QuickBooks, we can have one growth platform that can be the source of truth for -- and the source of growth for a small business, one of the things that we reiterated was that this was really a business that was run for profitability and it was run for cash flow.

是的，沒錯，絕對是這樣。我的意思是，如果你回顧一下我們差不多一年前完成交易的時候，除了我們對這項資產的興奮之情，以及現在結合 QuickBooks，我們可以擁有一個增長平台，可以成為小型企業的真實數據來源和增長源泉之外，我們非常明確地重申了一點：這確實是一項以盈利和現金流為目標的業務。

And even particularly in COVID times, where you saw a lot of front-office company accelerate, Mailchimp really didn't because, again, it was more run for cash flow and profitability. And so we worked very hard in the last year to put a playbook in place in context of the priorities that we've shared to accelerate growth. And those priorities, they always take time to shift the business from being run for profitability and cash flow, to being run for a growth business, typically, takes a couple of years. And we're actually starting to see a trajectory change within the first year. And we're quite demanding of ourselves in terms of the velocity that we would like to see.

尤其是在新冠疫情期間，許多前端公司都在加速發展，而Mailchimp卻並沒有，因為它的營運模式更注重現金流和獲利能力。因此，在過去一年裡，我們努力製定了一套策略，以配合我們先前分享的各項優先事項，從而加速成長。這些優先事項的轉變需要時間，通常需要幾年時間才能完成，才能將業務營運模式從以獲利和現金流為導向轉變為以成長為導向。而我們現在已經開始看到，在第一年就出現了發展軌跡的轉變。我們對自身的發展速度要求很高。

So really, what's happened there last year is we were taking a business that was, again, run for profitability, cash flow to revamping the website, coming up with a new campaign, revamping the product. And when I say revamp, it's not done. We've not reached the destination. It's just the beginning of what's possible to really focus on high-value customers to position ourselves to go after mid-market to start ramping up what we can do internationally.

所以，去年我們所做的，實際上是將一家原本以盈利和現金流為導向的企業，轉變為對網站進行全面改造，推出新的營銷活動，並對產品進行重新設計。我說的是“改造”，但這還沒完。我們還沒有達到目標。這只是開始，我們真正專注於高價值客戶，為進軍中端市場做好準備，並開始逐步擴大我們的國際業務。

All of these things, we're starting to now see indicators where in the quarter, although it was sequentially flat from a revenue perspective, we're seeing conversion from free to pay is up. We're seeing customer growth tick up. We're actually seeing expansion revenue, which means our customers are growing and they're upgrading what SKU they use. We're starting to see these, and these things really become future indicators of growth.

所有這些跡像都表明，儘管本季營收環比持平，但免費用戶向付費用戶的轉換率有所上升。客戶成長也在加速。我們實際上看到了擴張收入，這意味著我們的客戶正在成長，並且他們正在升級所使用的產品/服務。我們開始看到這些跡象，而這些跡像也確實預示著未來的成長。

And that's why the comment that I made earlier and Michelle made earlier around, we expect that the growth in Mailchimp to accelerate in the coming quarters because we're seeing the KPIs around customer growth, expansion retention, these things are starting to improve. So hopefully, that helps to answer your question.

這就是為什麼我和Michelle之前都提到過，我們預計Mailchimp的成長將在未來幾季加速，因為我們看到客戶成長、拓展和留存等關鍵績效指標都開始改善。希望這能解答你的疑問。

Your next question will come from the line of Steve Enders with Citi.

你的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的史蒂夫恩德斯。

I guess I just want to clarify a little bit on what you're seeing on the Credit Karma side and what you talked about historically on that front and what you're expecting for the guide here. I think before, you talked about expecting an acceleration kind of in the back half of the year as you kind of combine the cross-sell with TurboTax here. I guess, how are you thinking about that opportunity now given kind of where the macro is and what you're assuming versus the cross-sell that could potentially come here?

我想稍微澄清一下您在Credit Karma方面看到的情況，以及您之前談到的這方面的情況，還有您對這份指南的預期。我記得您之前說過，預計下半年會加速成長，因為您將與TurboTax進行交叉銷售。我想，鑑於目前的宏觀經濟狀況以及您對未來可能出現的交叉銷售的預期，您現在如何看待這個機會？

Yes. We have taken -- thank you for the question. We have taken sort of a firewall approach here. One is we're very excited about the innovations that we talked about at Investor Day. And in fact, the only thing that's changed is we've added a few more innovations that we've launched within Credit Karma.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我們採取了一種類似防火牆的策略。一方面，我們對在投資者日上提到的創新感到非常興奮。事實上，唯一的改變是我們又在Credit Karma中推出了一些新的創新功能。

The Marketplace that I shared earlier is one of them, where -- and it's almost at full scale where our customers see an additional tablet, a marketplace of all the products that are right for them in one place that brings more visibility and brings to the forefront products that are right for a specific cohort of customers.

我之前分享的 Marketplace 就是其中之一，它幾乎已經全面投入使用，我們的客戶可以在一個額外的平板電腦上看到所有適合他們的產品，這是一個市場，在一個地方就能看到所有適合他們的產品，從而提高可見性，並將適合特定客戶群體的產品推到最前面。

So in terms of the integration with TurboTax, you're going to see a far more robust experience this year with Credit Karma being integrated into TurboTax and vice versa. Credit Karma Guarantee continues to be on track in terms of a rollout to customer -- to members and financial institutions. All the innovations that we talked about, plus a few more are all on track, and we're equally as excited about the impact that it will have. And very consistent with what we shared at Investor Day, what we talked about then was that these innovations were not reliant on a macro pickup. They're just -- they're going to deliver more benefits, and therefore, more monetization.

因此，就與TurboTax的整合而言，今年隨著Credit Karma與TurboTax的全面整合，您將體驗到更強大的功能。 Credit Karma Guarantee面向客戶（包括會員和金融機構）的推廣工作也進展順利。我們之前提到的所有創新，以及一些其他的創新，都在按計劃進行，我們對它們將帶來的影響同樣感到興奮。正如我們在投資者日上所分享的，這些創新並不依賴宏觀經濟的成長。它們本身就能帶來更多益處，進而實現更高的獲利。

Back to the word firewall, we're not counting on those innovations in our results when we think about the rest of the year. We're assuming current trends. We're assuming further conservatism for the remainder of the year. We're making assumptions around unemployment going up, delinquency rates going up. And so therefore, that's informed our guide of minus 15% to minus 10%. And that's sort of separate and distinct from the innovation that we continue to be excited and focused on and are on track for the rollout.

回到「防火牆」這個詞，我們在展望今年剩餘時間時，並沒有將這些創新因素納入考量。我們假設目前的趨勢會持續下去，並且在今年剩餘時間裡，我們將採取更保守的策略。我們預期失業率和違約率都會上升。因此，這些因素影響了我們-15%至-10%的預期。這與我們持續關注並正按計劃推進的創新項目是截然不同的。

Okay. Got you. That's helpful. And I guess just to clarify again on Mailchimp. I know that last quarter, you were putting some changes in place to kind of improve conversion rates and really kind of rightsize or kind of build out some of the structure of that business. Like where are those changes you're making kind of at, at this point? And how should we kind of think about the level that so this kind of go in there to kind of more kind of rightsize that business?

好的，明白了，這很有幫助。關於Mailchimp，我想再確認一下。我知道上個季度你們進行了一些調整，旨在提高轉換率，並優化業務結構。目前這些調整進度如何？我們該如何看待這些調整對業務結構優化的影響程度？

Sure. Let me answer your question. I'm not sure what you mean by rightsize where -- is this -- we are very focused on investing in Mailchimp and accelerating the growth combined with the QuickBooks platform. And I would say a couple of big things that we have put in place and are continuing to implement.

當然。讓我來回答你的問題。我不確定你說的「調整規模」具體指的是什麼——是指我們目前非常專注於投資Mailchimp，並加速其與QuickBooks平台的結合發展嗎？我想說的是，我們已經實施了一些重要舉措，並且持續進行中。

One is really strengthening the leadership team at all levels. We're very excited about leaders that we -- had joined the Mailchimp family and with Rania's addition to the Mailchimp team, with additional changes that we are making to continue to strengthen the team, very excited about the impact there because that's having a direct impact on innovation, which is the second point I want to make.

第一點是真正強化各層級的領導團隊。我們很高興看到一些領導者加入Mailchimp大家庭，Rania的加入也讓我們倍感振奮。此外，我們也正在進行其他一些調整，以持續加強團隊實力。我們對這些調整帶來的影響感到非常興奮，因為它們將直接促進創新，這也是我想強調的第二點。

I really like the velocity, particularly what I've seen in the last 90 days. And I actually hope to see Mailchimp being one of the highest-velocity innovative teams across the company with the team that we have in place. And I think everything that I mentioned earlier that we have launched is a result of the impact of that team.

我非常滿意目前的進展速度，尤其是我在過去90天裡看到的。我真心希望憑藉我們現有的團隊，Mailchimp能夠成為公司內創新速度最快的團隊之一。我認為我之前提到的所有產品和功能的推出，都離不開這個團隊的努力。

And lastly, it's about impact. And we're starting to see the key performance indicators that I mentioned earlier uptick in the right direction, which means that almost a year in, it's not been quite a year, but almost a year in, I feel very good about sort of year 2 because we've put a lot of foundational things in place in year 1.

最後，還要看影響。我們開始看到我之前提到的關鍵績效指標朝著正確的方向上升，這意味著差不多一年過去了——雖然還沒滿一年，但差不多一年了——我對第二年的情況感覺非常好，因為我們在第一年已經打下了很多基礎。

We have a lot of work still ahead of us. But a lot of the work is about turning this into a sort of a strong growth business and fueling the success of small businesses, and I feel like we are on that trajectory given what I've seen, particularly in the last 90 to 100 days.

我們還有很多工作要做。但其中許多工作都是為了將公司轉型為強勁成長的企業，並協助小型企業取得成功。就我所看到的，尤其是在過去90到100天裡的情況來看，我覺得我們正朝著這個方向發展。

Our final question will come from the line of Daniel Jester with BMO Capital Markets.

最後一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Daniel Jester。

Two quick ones. A lot of talk about the macro with regards to Credit Karma. I'd love to hear about how you're overlaying that macro on QuickBooks Capital and anything you might be doing differently there as the year progresses, given the uncertainty.

兩個簡短的問題。最近很多人都在討論Credit Karma的宏。我很想了解你們是如何將該巨集應用到QuickBooks Capital上的，以及考慮到今年的不確定性，你們會做出哪些不同的調整。

And then secondarily, Sasan, you talked about some of the economic indicators you track for small business. Are you seeing consistency in the U.S. and international? Or is maybe one geography stronger than the other right now?

其次，薩桑，你剛才提到了一些你追蹤的小企業經濟指標。你覺得美國和國際市場的這些指標是否一致？或者說，目前某個地區的經濟狀況是否比其他地區更強勁？

Yes. Absolutely. Let me start with your macro question and QuickBooks Capital. We have built incredible machine learning capabilities, where we literally can control the dial of which customers', capacity for customers on a daily basis. And QuickBooks Capital is very important for our customers, and it is not a material sort of revenue driver for the company. It is, however, essential as part of our overall platform.

是的，當然。讓我先回答您關於宏觀層面的問題，也就是 QuickBooks Capital。我們已經建立了強大的機器學習能力，可以每天精確控制每個客戶的帳戶容量。 QuickBooks Capital 對我們的客戶來說非常重要，但它並非公司的主要收入來源。然而，它是我們整體平台不可或缺的一部分。

So I think that what I would say is we're very good and have been very good. I think it's been proven, especially during the COVID times, to be able to adjust the doubt so that we offer capital only to those that we can see can pay it back. And remember, the loans that we typically give could be from 30 days to 6 months. And there's a ceiling for all of these loans. So we feel very good about the macro environment impact and how we manage our QuickBooks Capital within that context, and I think we've proven that during COVID.

所以我認為，我們一直做得很好，而且做得非常好。尤其是在新冠疫情期間，事實證明，我們能夠調整評估標準，只向我們確信能夠償還貸款的人提供資金。請記住，我們通常提供的貸款期限為30天到6個月，而且所有貸款都有上限。因此，我們對宏觀環境的影響以及我們如何在這種環境下管理QuickBooks Capital感到非常滿意，我認為我們在新冠疫情期間已經證明了這一點。

The second element of your question, I would love to sort of parse it out in 2 ways. One is even in the U.S., there are sectors within small business. Remember, we're very diversified in the small businesses that we serve. But there are segments within small businesses that have gotten hit hard. Those that focus on auto sales, those that focus on financial services, those that focus on real estate. Some of their revenues are down 10% to 15%, but you don't really see that in our results because we're very, very diversified.

關於您問題的第二個方面，我想從兩個方面來解釋。首先，即使在美國，小型企業內部也存在著細分領域。請記住，我們服務的小型企業非常多元化。但小型企業內部確實存在一些受到嚴重衝擊的細分領域，例如專注於汽車銷售、金融服務和房地產的領域。這些領域的部分收入下降了10%到15%，但由於我們業務非常多元化，因此您在我們的業績中幾乎看不到這些影響。

We're not -- no one sector can really impact our overall results. So that's in context of the globe, but it's also in context of the U.S. Not every sector is created equal. Some sectors are hit hard, the ones that I just mentioned.

我們並非如此——沒有任何一個產業能夠真正影響我們的整體業績。這既適用於全球範圍，也適用於美國本土。並非所有產業都面臨同樣的境況。有些產業受到的衝擊很大，就像我剛才提到的那些。

I would say U.S. has been the strongest, followed by Canada. And the ones that have been hit the hardest has been U.K., Australia and France. And again, our -- we're not -- we've not assumed any of this in our guidance, but our hope is those will, over time, begin to bounce back. We've not seen the bounce back yet, but they've been hit harder than the U.S.

我認為美國表現最強勁，其次是加拿大。而受衝擊最嚴重的則是英國、澳洲和法國。再次強調，我們並沒有在預測中預設這些因素，但我們希望這些國家隨著時間的推移能夠開始復甦。目前我們尚未看到復甦跡象，但它們受到的衝擊比美國更大。

And I think that was the last question. And so maybe I can bring us to a close by saying thank you for all of your wonderful questions. And be safe, and we look forward to seeing all of you for our second quarter earnings results. Until then, be safe. Thank you, everybody. Bye-bye.

我想這應該是最後一個問題了。最後，我要感謝大家提出的所有精彩問題。請大家注意安全，我們期待在第二季財報發表會上與大家見面。在那之前，請大家注意安全。謝謝大家。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以斷開連線了。