ING Groep NV (ING) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. This is Marion welcoming you to ING's 2Q 2023 Conference Call. This conference is being recorded. Before handing this conference call over to Steven van Rijswijk, Chief Executive Officer of ING Group, let me first say that today's comments may include forward-looking statements, such as statements regarding future developments in our business, expectations for our future financial performance and any statement not involving a historical fact. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that may cause actual results to differ from those in any forward-looking statement is contained in our public filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and our earnings press release is posted on our website today. Furthermore, nothing in today's comments constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation on an offer to buy any securities. Good morning, Steven, over to you.

早上好。我是 Marion，歡迎您參加 ING 2023 年第二季度電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中。在將本次電話會議交給ING 集團首席執行官Steven van Rijswijk 之前，我首先要說的是，今天的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，例如有關我們業務未來發展的陳述、對我們未來財務業績的預期以及任何前瞻性陳述。不涉及歷史事實的陳述。實際結果可能與任何前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異。我們的公開文件中包含對可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中的結果不同的因素的討論，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 20-F 表格年度報告和我們的收益新聞今天發佈在我們的網站上。此外，今天的評論中的任何內容均不構成出售要約或購買任何證券的要約。早上好，史蒂文，交給你了。

Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter '23 results call. I hope you're all well. As usual, I'm joined by our CRO, Ljiljana Cortan; and our CFO, Tanate Phutrakul. And I'm pleased to take you through today's presentation. After that, we will take your questions.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 23 年第二季度業績電話會議。我希望你一切都好。像往常一樣，我們的 CRO Ljiljana Cortan 也加入了我的行列。和我們的首席財務官 Tanate Phutrakul。我很高興向您介紹今天的演示。之後，我們將回答您的問題。

The second quarter was another strong quarter for ING, and we delivered good results, especially in an environment characterized by ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Our continued focus on our offering of superior customer experience resulted in good organic growth. We added customers with many customers in Germany, the Netherlands and Spain selecting ING as a primary bank. The share of mobile-only customers increased further and 60% of our retail customers only do business with us through their mobile, our main channel. In Wholesale Banking, we're fully mobilized to help our clients' position to more sustainable business models, reached EUR 47 billion in the first half '23, a growth of 17% compared with the first 6 months of 2022. We continue to benefit from the positive rate environment and our total income grew by 23% year-on-year, mainly driven by higher interest income on liabilities. Our 4-quarter rolling average return on equity increased to 11.7%, and we have achieved this while operating on a very healthy CET1 ratio of 14.9%. On August 14, we will pay an interim cash dividend over the first On August 14, we will pay an interim cash dividend over the first half of '23, amounting to EUR 0.35 per share, which brings our total year-to-date distribution to shareholders to around EUR 4.5 billion.

第二季度是 ING 的又一個強勁季度，我們取得了良好的業績，特別是在宏觀經濟和地緣政治挑戰持續存在的環境下。我們持續專注於提供卓越的客戶體驗，從而實現了良好的有機增長。我們增加了客戶，其中德國、荷蘭和西班牙的許多客戶選擇 ING 作為主要銀行。僅使用移動設備的客戶比例進一步增加，60% 的零售客戶僅通過移動設備（我們的主要渠道）與我們開展業務。在批發銀行業務方面，我們全力幫助客戶建立更可持續的業務模式，23 年上半年達到 470 億歐元，與 2022 年前 6 個月相比增長了 17%。我們繼續受益我們的總收入同比增長23%，主要是由於負債利息收入增加。我們的 4 季度滾動平均股本回報率增至 11.7%，而我們是在 14.9% 的非常健康的 CET1 比率下實現這一目標的。 8 月 14 日，我們將支付第一個中期現金股息 8 月 14 日，我們將支付 23 年上半年的中期現金股息，每股 0.35 歐元，這使得我們今年迄今為止的分配總額向股東提供約45億歐元。

And before moving to the financial results in more detail, I will spend some time on the progress that we're making in execution of our strategy and related targets. And on Slide 3, our purpose and strategic priorities are shown. The first priority is to deliver a superior experience, which remains one of the most important reasons for customers to choose and promote ING as a primary bank. And as a result, it is one of the key drivers for customer growth. And to enable this growth, we continue to invest in our scalable tech and operations foundations and focus on offering a seamless digital experience. And in the first half of this year, we have increased the straight-through processing of Retail customer journeys to 69%. And this means that 69% of our key customer journeys is handled without manual intervention, which is getting closer to our 2025 target of over 75%. Another highlight this quarter is that in the Netherlands, 63% of our new clients were digitally onboarded, up from 52% at the end of last year.

在更詳細地介紹財務業績之前，我將花一些時間介紹我們在執行戰略和相關目標方面所取得的進展。第 3 張幻燈片展示了我們的目標和戰略重點。首要任務是提供卓越的體驗，這仍然是客戶選擇和推廣 ING 作為主要銀行的最重要原因之一。因此，它是客戶增長的關鍵驅動力之一。為了實現這一增長，我們繼續投資於可擴展的技術和運營基礎，並專注於提供無縫的數字體驗。今年上半年，我們將零售客戶旅程的直通處理率提高到了 69%。這意味著我們 69% 的關鍵客戶旅程是在沒有人工干預的情況下處理的，這越來越接近我們 2025 年超過 75% 的目標。本季度的另一個亮點是，在荷蘭，我們 63% 的新客戶通過數字方式入職，高於去年年底的 52%。

Our second strategic pillar is sustainability where an important aim is to support our clients in their transition to more sustainable business models. As our people are essential to putting sustainability into action, we organized our first Global Sustainability Week in June. And colleagues from around the world participated in more than 80 online and in-person sessions to share knowledge, inspire each other and exchange views on how to make a difference, both in and outside their work. We also expanded our product offering to help clients make energy-efficient renovations. In Belgium, we launched a new eco-renovation loan to support business banking clients in making their real estate more sustainable.

我們的第二個戰略支柱是可持續發展，其重要目標是支持我們的客戶向更可持續的商業模式過渡。由於我們的員工對於將可持續發展付諸行動至關重要，因此我們於 6 月組織了首屆全球可持續發展週。來自世界各地的同事參加了 80 多場在線和現場會議，分享知識、互相啟發，並就如何在工作內外發揮作用交換意見。我們還擴大了產品範圍，幫助客戶進行節能改造。在比利時，我們推出了一項新的生態改造貸款，以支持商業銀行客戶提高其房地產的可持續性。

Now we are moving to Slide 4, which shows our strength in a positive rate environment. The graph shows our total income since 2018, and it's clear that our continued focus on income diversification and our ability to capture loan growth through the cycle has paid off as we were able to offset the pressure from the lower rates and keep our income stable. Now that the interest rates have turned positive, the strength of our business model are highlighted. We have an attractive funding structure with over 60% of our balance sheet funded by sticky customer deposits. We have a proven ability to grow the number of clients and attract additional deposits, and this was again clearly evidenced this quarter through our successful promotional campaigns, which resulted in significant inflow of deposits in Germany, our largest market in terms of number of clients, and thirdly, through our diversification, which can capture loan growth through the cycle. And this was evidenced again this quarter with EUR 2.7 billion growth in mortgages despite the fact that the number of transactions in the market was down significantly.

現在我們轉向幻燈片 4，它顯示了我們在正利率環境下的實力。該圖顯示了我們自2018 年以來的總收入，很明顯，我們對收入多元化的持續關注以及我們在整個週期中捕捉貸款增長的能力已經得到回報，因為我們能夠抵消較低利率的壓力並保持收入穩定。現在利率已經轉正，我們的商業模式的優勢就凸顯出來了。我們擁有極具吸引力的融資結構，超過 60% 的資產負債表由粘性客戶存款提供資金。事實證明，我們有能力增加客戶數量並吸引更多存款，本季度我們成功的促銷活動再次清楚地證明了這一點，這導致存款大量流入我們客戶數量最大的市場德國，第三，通過我們的多元化，可以抓住整個週期的貸款增長。儘管市場交易數量大幅下降，但本季度抵押貸款增長 27 億歐元再次證明了這一點。

And these positive impacts are already visible in the P&L with income being structurally higher than in previous years. And going forward, we expect continued tailwind from these higher rates, given the structure of our replicating portfolio. Around 55% of the EUR 480 billion replicating portfolio is reinvested longer than 1 year and we will continue to reprice at higher rates in the coming years. Lastly, a return of loan demand and asset margins are a catalyst for future income growth, and we expect to be able to further grow fee income.

這些積極影響已經在損益表中顯現出來，收入在結構上高於前幾年。展望未來，考慮到我們複製投資組合的結構，我們預計這些較高的利率將繼續帶來推動力。 4800 億歐元復制投資組合中約 55% 的再投資時間超過 1 年，我們將在未來幾年繼續以更高的利率重新定價。最後，貸款需求和資產利潤率的回升是未來收入增長的催化劑，我們預計手續費收入能夠進一步增長。

Slide 5 shows our financial targets for 25% and our performance in the first half of this year. On fee growth in Daily Banking, we see further room to increase or introduce fees. In investment products, the continued growth of accounts is a strong base for fee growth when market confidence improves and further support will come from growth of Lending fees when overall demand recovers. Higher fees and continued focus on income diversification will support total income growth, though, for 2023, the main driver will continue to be liability NII. And while there are some uncertainties such as further central bank rate increases, deposit tracking and customer behavior, the tailwinds from our replicating portfolio on liabilities will continue. This income growth will support an improvement of our cost-income ratio, which has already declined to just over 54% on a 4-quarter rolling basis. Our costs are well controlled despite the pressure from high inflation, and we also continue to invest in our strategy enablers and in marketing, which will support commercial growth and bring cost benefits in the longer term.

幻燈片 5 顯示了我們 25% 的財務目標以及今年上半年的業績。關於日常銀行業務的費用增長，我們認為還有進一步增加或引入費用的空間。在投資產品方面，當市場信心改善時，賬戶的持續增長是費用增長的堅實基礎，當整體需求恢復時，進一步的支撐將來自貸款費用的增長。更高的費用和對收入多元化的持續關注將支持總收入增長，但到 2023 年，主要驅動力將繼續是負債 NII。儘管存在一些不確定性，例如央行進一步加息、存款跟踪和客戶行為，但我們複製負債投資組合的推動力仍將持續。這種收入增長將支持我們成本收入比的改善，在 4 季度滾動基礎上，成本收入比已降至略高於 54%。儘管面臨高通脹的壓力，我們的成本仍得到了很好的控制，我們還繼續投資於我們的戰略推動者和營銷，這將支持商業增長並帶來長期的成本效益。

On our CET1 ratio, we intend to move through our target of around 12.5% and roughly equal steps through our 50% payout of resilient net profit combined with additional distributions. The next step will reflect the strong capital generation and we will update the market with the disclosure of our third quarter '23 results. Good to highlight here is that the Dutch Central Bank reduced the systematic risk buffer requirement for ING from 2.5% to 2%, while at the same time, increasing the Dutch countercyclical buffer from 1% to 2%. And as a result of these adjustments, our fully loaded SREP requirement decreased by roughly 32 basis points to 10.7%. And as a result, we will not adjust our CET1 target. Despite the risk cost below our through-the-cycle average and no identifiable trends in provisioning, we remain vigilant as cost of living and doing business arises for our customers. And driven by all these factors, we have confidence we will reach our target of 12% return on equity.

就我們的 CET1 比率而言，我們打算通過 50% 的彈性淨利潤支付與額外分配相結合，實現 12.5% 左右的目標，並以大致相同的步驟實現。下一步將反映出強勁的資本生成，我們將通過披露 23 年第三季度的業績來更新市場。這裡值得強調的是，荷蘭央行將 ING 的系統風險緩衝要求從 2.5% 降低至 2%，同時將荷蘭反週期緩衝從 1% 提高至 2%。由於這些調整，我們滿載的 SREP 要求下降了大約 32 個基點，至 10.7%。因此，我們不會調整 CET1 目標。儘管風險成本低於我們的整個週期平均水平，並且撥備方面沒有明顯的趨勢，但我們仍對客戶的生活和業務成本上升保持警惕。在所有這些因素的推動下，我們有信心實現 12% 的股本回報率目標。

Then on to the second quarter results, starting on Slide 7, which shows the continued strong development of NII. And liability NII was even higher than the showing headline number as accounting impacts shifted some NII from treasury and financial markets to other income. And the increase in liability NII reflected further rate increases and continued the positive flow, which was only partly offset by an increase of the core rates in some of our retail markets. The positive impact was also clearly visible in Wholesale Banking, where our Payments and Cash Management business benefiting from higher interest rates. In Lending NII, we saw year-on-year pressure on mortgage margins due to the rising interest rates as client rates generally track higher funding costs with a delay while also income from prepayment penalties was negligible. Sequentially, this effect diminished and lending margins have stabilized.

然後是第二季度的業績，從幻燈片 7 開始，它顯示了 NII 的持續強勁發展。由於會計影響將一些NII從國庫和金融市場轉移到其他收入，負債NII甚至高於顯示的標題數字。負債NII的增加反映了利率的進一步上漲，並持續了積極的流動，這僅被我們一些零售市場核心利率的上漲所部分抵消。批發銀行業務的積極影響也顯而易見，我們的支付和現金管理業務受益於更高的利率。在貸款NII方面，我們看到由於利率上升，抵押貸款利潤率面臨同比壓力，因為客戶利率通常會延遲跟踪更高的融資成本，而提前還款罰款的收入可以忽略不計。隨後，這種影響減弱，貸款利潤率趨於穩定。

As mentioned year-on-year, we saw the impact of a temporary shift of NII to other income as Treasury benefited from favorable market opportunities through money market and FX transactions. And for financial markets, rising rates and increased business led to higher funding costs. And accounting-wise, this resulted in a reduction in net interest income, while other income rose significantly. Our net interest margin for the quarter decreased by 3 basis points to 156 basis points fully driven by the increase of the balance sheet total, which more than offset higher NII.

正如同比所提到的，我們看到了NII暫時轉向其他收入的影響，因為財政部通過貨幣市場和外匯交易受益於有利的市場機會。對於金融市場而言，利率上升和業務增加導致融資成本上升。從會計角度來看，這導致淨利息收入減少，而其他收入則大幅增加。我們本季度的淨息差下降了 3 個基點，至 156 個基點，這完全是由於資產負債表總額的增加所致，這足以抵消較高的NII。

Slide 8 shows net core lending growth. In Retail, mortgages continue to grow, mainly in Australia, the Netherlands and Germany, despite the fact that mortgage transactions in Germany and the Netherlands dropped significantly. In Wholesale Banking, loan growth was visible in Lending. This was more than offset by lower utilization in working capital solutions and lower volumes in Trading Commodity & Finance, reflecting a decrease in commodity prices and lower economic activity. Going forward, with still heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, we expect loan demand to remain subdued. We benefited from our diversified business model as we grew net customer deposits with EUR 17 billion, primarily reflecting the success of our promotional campaigns in Germany, where we had EUR 16 billion of deposit inflows. Roughly 2/3 of this inflow came from existing customers. Wholesale Banking recorded a small outflow.

幻燈片 8 顯示核心貸款淨增長。在零售業，抵押貸款繼續增長，主要是在澳大利亞、荷蘭和德國，儘管德國和荷蘭的抵押貸款交易大幅下降。在批發銀行業務中，貸款增長明顯。這被營運資金解決方案利用率下降以及商品和金融交易量下降所抵消，反映出大宗商品價格下跌和經濟活動減少。展望未來，由於宏觀經濟不確定性仍然加劇，我們預計貸款需求將保持低迷。我們受益於多元化的業務模式，客戶存款淨額增長了 170 億歐元，這主要反映了我們在德國的促銷活動的成功，我們在德國的存款流入量為 160 億歐元。大約 2/3 的資金流入來自現有客戶。批發銀行業務錄得小幅流出。

Then we turn to fees on Page 9, which showed growth year-on-year, driven by increased deal flow in Wholesale Banking Lending and Global Capital Markets. In Retail Banking, the growth of primary customers and the increase in payment package fees was offset by lower fees year-on-year for investment products, which continues to be affected by less trading activity. However, the opening of new investment accounts continued and assets under management increased, which will result in higher fees when market activity recovers as we will grow from a higher base. Sequentially, fees were up, also reflecting an increase in fees in Wholesale Banking, driven by Lending, lower capital markets and Corporate Finance. Fee income from Retail Banking was stable.

然後我們轉向第 9 頁的費用，由於批發銀行貸款和全球資本市場的交易流量增加，該費用同比增長。在零售銀行業務方面，主要客戶的增長和支付套餐費用的增加被投資產品費用同比下降所抵消，投資產品費用繼續受到交易活動減少的影響。然而，新投資賬戶的繼續開設和管理資產的增加，當市場活動恢復時，這將導致費用更高，因為我們將從更高的基礎上增長。隨後，費用上漲，也反映出在貸款、較低的資本市場和企業融資的推動下，批發銀行業務的費用增加。零售銀行手續費收入穩定。

Now I move to Slide 10. Excluding regulatory costs and incidental items, operating expenses were up 6.9% year-on-year. This was mostly due to the effect of high inflation rates on staff expenses, reflecting indexation and CLA increases across most of our markets. We also continued to invest in growing our business, including higher marketing expenses, and these factors were partly offset by positive FX impacts and the exit from the retail markets in France and the Philippines. Quarter-on-quarter, expenses excluding regulatory costs and incidental items decreased with 0.5% despite higher staff expenses.

現在我轉向幻燈片 10。不包括監管成本和雜項，運營費用同比增長 6.9%。這主要是由於高通脹率對員工費用的影響，反映了我們大多數市場的指數化和 CLA 的增長。我們還繼續投資於業務增長，包括更高的營銷費用，這些因素被積極的外匯影響以及法國和菲律賓零售市場的退出部分抵消。儘管員工費用增加，但不包括監管成本和雜費的費用環比下降了 0.5%。

Last quarter had included EUR 44 million of legal provisions and restructuring costs, while these amounted to EUR 22 million in the second quarter. Regulatory costs were down year-on-year as the second quarter last year had included a EUR 92 million contribution to the Institutional Protection Scheme in Poland. Our contribution to DGS funds has decreased as well. The quarter-on-quarter decrease in regulatory costs reflects the full payment of several annual contributions that we took in the first quarter of this year. Then risk costs in the next slide, Slide 11, where we -- which were EUR 98 million this quarter or 6 basis points of average customer lending, below our through-the-cycle average of 25 basis points. This included a EUR 39 million increase of management overlays, mainly reflecting the current inflation and interest environment as well as some regular model updates. The total stock of management overlays amounts to EUR 560 million at the end of the second quarter 2023.

上季度包括 4400 萬歐元的法律準備金和重組成本，而第二季度則達到 2200 萬歐元。去年第二季度向波蘭機構保護計劃捐款 9200 萬歐元，監管成本同比下降。我們對 DGS 基金的捐款也有所減少。監管成本的環比下降反映了我們今年第一季度繳納的多項年度捐款的全額支付。然後是下一張幻燈片（幻燈片 11）中的風險成本，本季度我們的風險成本為 9800 萬歐元，即平均客戶貸款的 6 個基點，低於我們整個週期平均水平 25 個基點。其中包括管理疊加增加 3900 萬歐元，主要反映當前的通脹和利率環境以及一些定期模型更新。截至 2023 年第二季度末，管理層的總存量達到 5.6 億歐元。

In Wholesale Banking, risk costs included a few individual files. And this was, however, more than offset by a further release of our Russia-related provisions as we continued reducing our Russia-related exposure. Total offshore exposure with regards to Russia amounted to EUR 1.7 billion at the end of the second quarter. Total risk costs in Wholesale amounted to minus EUR 15 million, minus 1-5. In Retail Banking, there were limited additions to risk costs in Poland, Spain and Belgium. In Stage 3, we saw more inflow with no clear trends identifiable and the Stage 3 outstandings declined slightly this quarter while the Stage 3 ratio remained low at 1.4%. The lower Stage 2 ratio mainly reflected sales and repayments, including a further reduction of our offshore Russia-related exposure. And all in all, a very benign quarter in risk costs and although cost of living and doing business rises for our customers, we remain confident in the quality of our loan book.

在批發銀行業務中，風險成本包括一些單獨的文件。然而，隨著我們繼續減少與俄羅斯相關的風險敞口，進一步釋放與俄羅斯相關的條款足以抵消這一影響。截至第二季度末，俄羅斯的離岸風險總額達 17 億歐元。批發業的總風險成本為負 1500 萬歐元，即負 1-5。在零售銀行業務中，波蘭、西班牙和比利時的風險成本增加有限。在第三階段，我們看到更多的資金流入，但沒有明顯的趨勢，本季度第三階段的未償貸款略有下降，而第三階段的比率仍保持在 1.4% 的低水平。第二階段比率較低主要反映了銷售和還款，包括進一步減少了我們與俄羅斯離岸相關的風險敞口。總而言之，這是一個風險成本非常良性的季度，儘管我們客戶的生活和經營成本上升，但我們對貸款簿的質量仍然充滿信心。

On Slide 12 that shows our CET1 ratio, which increased to a very strong 14.9%. CET1 capital was nearly EUR 500 million lower as the distribution of EUR 1.5 billion was largely offset by the addition of 50% of the resilient net profit for the quarter. Furthermore, risk-weighted assets were EUR 4.5 billion lower, including EUR 200 million of FX impacts. Credit risk-weighted assets decreased by EUR 5.6 billion, mostly driven by model updates, an improved profile of the loan book as well as disciplined capital management in the Wholesale Banking. On distribution plans, we will pay an interim cash dividend of EUR 0.35 per ordinary share over the first half of 2023 on August 14, and we will update the market on our future distribution plans with our third quarter of 23 results. And as mentioned before, the next steps to converge to our CET1 ratio target of 12.5% by 2025 will reflect the strong capital generation.

第 12 張幻燈片顯示了我們的 CET1 比率，已增至非常強勁的 14.9%。 CET1 資本減少了近 5 億歐元，因為 15 億歐元的分配在很大程度上被本季度彈性淨利潤的 50% 的增加所抵消。此外，風險加權資產減少了 45 億歐元，其中包括 2 億歐元的外匯影響。信用風險加權資產減少了 56 億歐元，主要是由於模型更新、貸款賬簿狀況改善以及批發銀行業務嚴格的資本管理。關於分配計劃，我們將於 8 月 14 日支付 2023 年上半年每股普通股 0.35 歐元的中期現金股息，我們將通過 23 季度第三季度業績向市場通報我們未來的分配計劃。正如之前提到的，到 2025 年向 12.5% 的 CET1 比率目標邁進的下一步將反映出強勁的資本生成能力。

To wrap up with the highlights, a strong second quarter in which we delivered an excellent set of results. Execution of our strategic priorities delivered strong growth of primary customers. And we increased our volumes, mobilized to finance the transition to more sustainable business models. The financial results in the first half of the year clearly demonstrated our business model and strength position as well to benefit from the positive rate environment. Total income increased with growth across all segments and expenses remained under control. Our capital position remains very strong, and we are well positioned to continue providing a very attractive return to our shareholders. Going forward, I'm confident that we will continue to deliver robust financial results while successfully executing our strategy. And with that, we move to Q&A.

最後，我們以強勁的第二季度業績作為總結，我們取得了一系列出色的業績。我們戰略重點的執行帶來了主要客戶的強勁增長。我們增加了數量，並動員起來為向更可持續的商業模式的過渡提供資金。上半年的財務業績清楚地展示了我們的業務模式和優勢地位，並受益於積極的利率環境。總收入隨著各板塊的增長而增加，費用仍然受到控制。我們的資本狀況仍然非常強勁，並且我們有能力繼續為股東提供非常有吸引力的回報。展望未來，我相信我們將繼續實現強勁的財務業績，同時成功執行我們的戰略。接下來，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take the first question from Jon Peace from Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們將回答瑞士信貸銀行 Jon Peace 提出的第一個問題。

So my first question, just on net interest income. I realize the Treasury swap reallocation to other income can be volatile from a quarterly basis. But should we be just adding on that reallocation to the current quarter's NII and seeing EUR 4.4 billion of NII as really a sustainable base for the second half of the year and for 2024 given your comments about the tailwind from the replicating portfolio? And second question, please, just on the cost of risk. Any guidance you might give us for the second half of this year relative to your through-the-cycle rate? You're obviously still carrying quite a degree of overlays and I just wonder if there's any pressure to utilize those, which might keep the cost of risk very low.

我的第一個問題是關於淨利息收入。我意識到國債掉期重新分配到其他收入可能會按季度波動。但是，考慮到您對複制投資組合帶來的推動作用的評論，我們是否應該將這種重新分配添加到本季度的NII 中，並將44 億歐元的NII 視為下半年和2024 年真正的可持續基礎？第二個問題是關於風險成本的。相對於整個週期的利率，您可能會為我們提供今年下半年的任何指導嗎？顯然，你仍然攜帶相當程度的覆蓋，我只是想知道使用這些覆蓋是否有任何壓力，這可能會使風險成本保持在非常低的水平。

Thank you very much. Jon, I give the first question to Tanate and then the second one to Ljiljana.

非常感謝。喬恩，我將第一個問題交給 Tanate，然後將第二個問題交給 Ljiljana。

Thanks, Jon. Just on NII, in particular, the 2 abnormal lies is really our positions on Treasury and our position on Financial Markets. As we have given you in the last quarter, we guided that trades in Treasury was likely to be about the same in Q1 and Q2, and that has been the case. Our expectation is that the opportunity will exist going into the second half of the year, but the impact will start to decline a bit in Q3. And in Financial Markets, it really just depends on our trading position. That's too volatile to predict.

謝謝，喬恩。就NII而言，特別是兩個不正常的謊言實際上是我們在財政部上的頭寸和我們在金融市場上的頭寸。正如我們在上個季度向您提供的那樣，我們預計第一季度和第二季度的國債交易可能大致相同，情況也確實如此。我們的預期是，這個機會將持續到下半年，但影響將在第三季度開始略有下降。在金融市場中，這實際上只取決於我們的交易頭寸。這太不穩定了，難以預測。

With respect to the cost of risk guidance, as you know, we generally do not guide on that category, and we refer to our low through-the-cycle 25 bps average compared to customer lending. However, as you've seen the first half of this year has been very good for the -- also quality of our portfolio has proven the resilience of quality of our portfolio. But also as CEO mentioned, we remain vigilant with respect to the uncertainty in the environment, and that's why we are sticking to our through-the-cycle average.

至於風險指導成本，如您所知，我們通常不會對該類別進行指導，我們指的是與客戶貸款相比，我們的整個週期平均水平較低 25 個基點。然而，正如您所看到的，今年上半年的情況非常好——而且我們投資組合的質量也證明了我們投資組合質量的彈性。但也正如首席執行官所提到的，我們對環境的不確定性保持警惕，這就是我們堅持整個週期平均水平的原因。

The next question comes from Giulia Miotto from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Giulia Miotto。

My first question is on NII as well. You mentioned tailwinds still to come, 55% of the replicating portfolio has a duration longer than 1 year. Given that we expect the ECB rate to peak and then start decreasing next year, when do you think your NII will peak essentially, so also timing of the peak of NII is my first question. And then the second question on asset quality at the moment remains very benign. But is there any portfolio that you're watching more carefully in particular, on the commercial real estate side, for instance, or residential market in the Netherlands or Australia?

我的第一個問題也是關於 NII 的。您提到有利因素尚未到來，55% 的複制投資組合的持續時間超過 1 年。鑑於我們預計歐洲央行利率將在明年達到峰值，然後開始下降，您認為您的 NII 何時會達到峰值，因此 NII 達到峰值的時間也是我的第一個問題。目前關於資產質量的第二個問題仍然非常溫和。但是，有沒有您特別關注的投資組合，例如在商業房地產方面，或者在荷蘭或澳大利亞的住宅市場？

Yes. I'll give the second question to Ljiljana and the first question, I'll do. To some extent, a similar question as the previous as Jon. But look, I think the good thing is that we are operating in a number of markets. So it's diverse and we continue to attract deposits. So one of the elements that's important, are we continuing able to get clients in? And are we continuing to be able to attract deposits? And the second is, okay, what is the competition doing in these different markets? And the tracking speed so far has been around 20%. And we will see -- need to see how that will develop but it's still significantly lower than we've seen in previous cycles. And then, of course, it also depends on the increase in interest rates that we see with the ECB.

是的。我會將第二個問題交給 Ljiljana，第一個問題我會做。在某種程度上，與喬恩之前的問題類似。但你看，我認為好的一點是我們在多個市場開展業務。所以它是多樣化的，我們繼續吸引存款。因此，重要的因素之一是我們是否能夠繼續吸引客戶？我們是否能夠繼續吸引存款？第二個問題是，這些不同市場的競爭情況如何？目前跟踪速度一直在20%左右。我們將會看到——需要看到這種情況將如何發展，但它仍然明顯低於我們在之前週期中看到的水平。當然，這也取決於我們看到的歐洲央行利率的上升。

Now it's hard to predict what exactly will be, but people expect either 1 or 2 more hikes. But that competitive impact will remain to be seen, and we will play our role to see, okay, how do we balance it out in terms of the role that we play in different markets, but typically more of a follower in, let's say, the incumbent markets in which we're active and where we grow the number of clients in the, let's say, the challenger markets, there we sometimes do marketing actions to attract customers like we have seen now in Germany, for example, and that led to also an incredible amount of EUR 16 billion additional deposits. The good thing is that interest rates at some point will rise, but we have a replicating portfolio whereby the majority indeed, 55% of our euro-denominated deposits is replicated for longer than 1 year, and that will be a good support even when competitive pressure increases to further benefit from this interest rate environment and what that level exactly will be we will need to see depending on the market circumstances.

現在很難預測到底會發生什麼，但人們預計還會有 1 到 2 次加息。但這種競爭影響仍有待觀察，我們將發揮我們的作用，看看我們如何在不同市場中發揮的作用方面平衡它，但通常更多的是追隨者，比方說，我們活躍的現有市場以及我們在挑戰者市場中增加客戶數量的地方，我們有時會採取營銷行動來吸引客戶，就像我們現在在德國看到的那樣，這導致了還有數額驚人的 160 億歐元額外存款。好處是利率在某個時候會上升，但我們有一個複制投資組合，其中我們的大多數歐元計價存款確實有55% 的複制時間超過1 年，即使在競爭激烈的情況下，這也將是一個很好的支持從這種利率環境中進一步受益的壓力越來越大，我們需要根據市場情況來確定該利率水平到底是多少。

Correct. Our asset quality remains strong and resilient as well in the second quarter. And we do see some better prospects eventually for soft lending in some of the geographies we operate in. However, this uncertainty is still there. And thus, as said, we remain vigilant when it comes to the higher interest rate and inflationary environment and specifically across the portfolios that are experiencing higher, I would say, cost of doing business or higher borrowing costs, but as well for private individual's cost of living. That means that the obviously focus is on the more cyclical parts of the portfolio. Clearly, we are looking at the commercial real estate and acquisition finance but as well as some other steel energy-intense manufacturing parts of our portfolio. So far, we do not see structural deteriorations there, but that's also one of the reasons why we proactively take the measures in order not to allow those to become visible.

正確的。第二季度我們的資產質量仍然強勁且富有彈性。我們確實看到，在我們經營的一些地區，軟貸款最終會出現更好的前景。但是，這種不確定性仍然存在。因此，正如前面所說，我們對更高的利率和通脹環境保持警惕，特別是在那些正在經歷更高的投資組合中，我想說的是，經營成本或借貸成本更高，但對於私人成本也是如此生活的。這意味著顯然重點是投資組合中更具週期性的部分。顯然，我們正在關注商業房地產和收購融資，以及我們投資組合中的其他一些鋼鐵能源密集型製造部分。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到那裡的結構性惡化，但這也是我們積極採取措施不讓這些惡化的原因之一。

The next question comes from Raul Sinha from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Raul Sinha。

Two from me as well. The first one, Steven, I was just wondering if you think you have seen the peak in inflation pressure on the cost side? And the reason I ask that is because I think costs came in slightly below where the market was expecting. They seem to be annualizing just below where consensus is sitting for the full year. Would you expect perhaps there to be more or less cost pressure in the second half of the year compared to what you've delivered here? That's my first question. And then the second question, just coming back on NII. Some of the other banks, which do have financial markets businesses where the funding cost of the Financial Markets business is still booked in NII are moving towards banking NII definition, in particular, HSBC and Standard Chartered in the U.K. So I guess you guys have the same accounting asymmetry. So I was wondering whether you considered perhaps at your end to refine the definition of NII or perhaps give us another measure in terms of banking NII.

我也有兩個。第一個，史蒂文，我只是想知道您是否認為成本方面的通脹壓力已經達到頂峰？我之所以這麼問，是因為我認為成本略低於市場預期。他們的年化率似乎略低於全年的共識。您是否預計下半年的成本壓力與您在此交付的相比會或多或少？這是我的第一個問題。然後是第二個問題，剛剛回到 NII。其他一些確實擁有金融市場業務的銀行，其中金融市場業務的融資成本仍然記入 NII，它們正在轉向銀行 NII 定義，特別是英國的匯豐銀行和渣打銀行。所以我想你們已經同樣的會計不對稱。所以我想知道您最終是否考慮完善 NII 的定義，或者為我們提供銀行 NII 方面的另一種衡量標準。

Thank you. Maybe I'll do the second question first. We're currently not considering to the final definition, but I can see that it requires some explanation because it indeed moves from NII to other income. And Tanate, I'll give you the first question.

謝謝。也許我會先做第二個問題。我們目前還沒有考慮最終的定義，但我可以看到它需要一些解釋，因為它確實從NII轉移到其他收入。 Tanate，我將問你第一個問題。

Just on cost development in the second quarter. Probably 3 things to note. The first on regulatory expenses is down EUR 247 million. So right, a good evolution. We have guided the market already that by the first quarter of 2025, we expect that regulatory expenses will be EUR 400 million lower than where we see it today -- well, where we see it in 2021. And our expectation is that the regulatory expenses for this year will be approximately EUR 180 million lower than previous year. So that's on regulatory expense. On OpEx, yes, we do see that the inflation pressure is coming down the publicly announced indexation in Belgium, which used to be 10% in December. By June this year has gone down to around 4%, 4.5%. So that pressure is coming down. But having said that, we also do spend more money in terms of client acquisition, in more advertising and those are also present in our numbers. But a 7% OpEx clean for volatility is a good guidance of where our OpEx have run in Q2.

只是關於第二季度的成本發展。大概有3件事需要注意。首先是監管費用減少了 2.47 億歐元。沒錯，這是一個很好的進化。我們已經引導市場，到 2025 年第一季度，我們預計監管費用將比我們今天看到的水平（好吧，我們在 2021 年看到的水平）低 4 億歐元。我們的預期是監管費用今年將比去年減少約1.8 億歐元。這就是監管費用。在運營支出方面，是的，我們確實看到比利時公開宣布的指數化（12 月份為 10%）的通脹壓力正在下降。到今年6月份已經下降到4%、4.5%左右。所以壓力正在下降。但話雖如此，我們也確實在客戶獲取和廣告方面花費了更多的錢，這些也體現在我們的數字中。但 7% 的運營支出消除了波動性，這對於我們第二季度運營支出的運行情況是一個很好的指導。

The next question comes from Tarik El Mejjad from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Tarik El Mejjad。

A couple from my side. I mean the first one on the revenues, maybe just to summarize a bit what you've been saying for my colleagues' previous questions. So I noticed in your slides in Q2 slides that you've in the guidance -- or sorry, the targets for total income, you removed the line with like above 10% total income growth for '23. I mean, obviously, you are double that. I mean, consensus, sorry, is double that and you're showing strong trends. So can you maybe update that guidance or tell us how you -- what you think about where consensus is maybe that give us a view on where the fees and NII trends from here? And then second question is on the capital and distribution. I appreciate you're doing an update in Q3, but that's been an issue here for a while already where you clearly generate more capital than you can distribute, which is a good problem to have. But when you do the maths, I mean it's very difficult to imagine how you can convert with 2.5% and you reiterated that last Friday of the stress test today in every occasion. But I mean that implies a massive step-up in distribution in the special every year starting from Q3. So is that something that could be on the table? And second question, how can you deliver that given the liquidation of the shares and so on? Does that mean that you will have also some cash special and not only buyback on top of the current run rate.

我這邊有一對。我的意思是關於收入的第一個，也許只是總結一下你對我同事之前的問題所說的內容。所以我注意到，在第二季度的幻燈片中，您在指導中——或者抱歉，在總收入目標中，您刪除了 23 年總收入增長超過 10% 的線條。我的意思是，顯然，你是這個的兩倍。我的意思是，抱歉，共識是這個數字的兩倍，而且你正在表現出強勁的趨勢。那麼，您能否更新該指南，或者告訴我們您對共識的看法如何讓我們了解費用和 NII 的趨勢？第二個問題是關於資本和分配。我很高興您在第三季度進行更新，但這已經成為一個問題有一段時間了，您顯然產生的資本超過了您可以分配的資本，這是一個好問題。但當你做數學計算時，我的意思是很難想像你如何能夠以 2.5% 進行轉換，而且你在每個場合都重申了上週五的壓力測試。但我的意思是，這意味著從第三季度開始每年特刊的發行量都會大幅增加。那麼這是可以擺在桌面上的事情嗎？第二個問題，考慮到股票清算等情況，你如何實現這一目標？這是否意味著您還將獲得一些特別現金，而不僅僅是在當前運行利率之上進行回購。

Okay. Thank you, Tarik. Let me start on the capital distribution. If you -- indeed, I mean, we do the math as well. So indeed, our capital moved up again on the back of these results and also on the good capital management, especially in Wholesale Banking this quarter. So what I also said in the presentation that we will give an update in the third quarter, but that we also then see that the roughly equal steps if we want to move, and we want to move to around 12.5%, that hasn't changed. And it also means that we need to -- that the steps need to reflect the higher capital that we're having. So I think that what you're saying and I are saying are exactly the same with having that math in mind. Then on revenues, no, we're not giving additional guidance. I mean above 10%. And with confidence, I can say it's above 10%.

好的。謝謝你，塔里克。讓我從資本分配開始。如果你——事實上，我的意思是，我們也會做數學計算。事實上，由於這些業績以及良好的資本管理，特別是本季度的批發銀行業務，我們的資本再次增加。因此，我在演示中還說過，我們將在第三季度進行更新，但我們隨後也會看到，如果我們想要移動，並且我們想要移動到12.5% 左右，那麼我們也將採取大致相同的步驟，但這還沒有實現。改變了。這也意味著我們需要——這些步驟需要反映我們擁有的更高資本。所以我認為你所說的和我所說的在考慮數學方面是完全一樣的。然後在收入方面，不，我們不會提供額外的指導。我的意思是10%以上。我可以自信地說，這一比例超過 10%。

The next question comes from Benoit Petrarque from Kepler Cheuvreux.

下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Benoit Petrarque。

Now just to first come back on the accounting asymmetry, which creates a lot of noise, obviously and maybe focusing on the financial market NII, clearly quite difficult to estimate. But I understand that the trend was very much linked to the kind of ECB rate hike cycle. So when this cycle will kind of stop or we get probably a cut even at some point, it's fair to assume that the NII from the Financial Market will recover sharply potentially back to the previous level. But I wanted to check that with you first. And then on the stress test outcome, sorry to come back to that. But it was [550] negative on your TRIM and adverse scenario. I think you were ending at just below 9% in the adverse scenario with a starting point at 14.5%. So can you really bring the CET1 ratio back to 12.5% given your sensitivity to an adverse scenario according to the ECB, that will be the other question. And also linked to the capital distribution, I was wondering if you think we can we can plug payout ratio kind of blended, including buyback above 100%, if technically, there's no issue because obviously, if you want to bring your capital down, we have to think about payout ratio above 100%. So I wanted to make sure we can do that without much problems.

現在首先回到會計不對稱問題上來，它產生了很多噪音，顯然可能集中在金融市場NII上，顯然很難估計。但我知道這一趨勢與歐洲央行的加息週期密切相關。因此，當這個週期停止時，或者我們甚至在某個時候可能會被削減時，可以公平地假設，金融市場的NII將大幅恢復到之前的水平。但我想先和你確認一下。然後關於壓力測試結果，很抱歉回到這個問題。但你的 TRIM 和不利場景的結果是 [550] 負面。我認為在不利情況下，您的最終結果略低於 9%，而起點為 14.5%。因此，考慮到歐洲央行對不利情況的敏感性，你真的可以將 CET1 比率恢復到 12.5%，這將是另一個問題。也與資本分配有關，我想知道你是否認為我們可以將派息率混合起來，包括高於100% 的回購，如果從技術上講，沒有問題，因為顯然，如果你想降低你的資本，我們必須考慮高於 100% 的支付率。所以我想確保我們能夠順利做到這一點。

Okay. Let me answer the question on CET1, and then Tanate will talk about the financial markets NII ratio. With regards to CET1, and you mentioned the stress test, it was, of course, a very insightful stress test. There's also quite a static stress test. And the input factors of that stress test this time had their impact of banks with presence more in the northern part of Europe and that's what you see reflected. The stress test does not talk about how would you respond to this stress, which typically is being done, but this is just a stress test, which is good, and we do many stress test. And then separate from that, we have very good capital of 14.9%. We have a targeted capital ratio of 12.5% that we've also, at the time, agreed when we set it and agreed with the ECB and we are confidently moving in roughly equal steps to the 12.5%. And that also means, and you're right that in that mathematical calculation, that means that on aggregate we need to pay out more than 100% of our profit to get there. So we are calculating as well and giving you an update in the third quarter.

好的。我來回答一下CET1的問題，然後Tanate會講一下金融市場NII比率。關於CET1，你提到了壓力測試，這當然是一個非常有洞察力的壓力測試。還有相當靜態的壓力測試。這次壓力測試的輸入因素對歐洲北部地區較多的銀行產生了影響，這就是你所看到的反映。壓力測試不會談論你如何應對這種壓力，這通常是正在進行的，但這只是一個壓力測試，這很好，我們做了很多壓力測試。除此之外，我們還有 14.9% 的非常好的資本。我們的目標資本比率為 12.5%，當時我們在設定該比率時也同意了這一目標，並與歐洲央行達成一致，我們有信心以大致相同的步驟向 12.5% 邁進。這也意味著，你是對的，在數學計算中，這意味著總的來說，我們需要支付超過 100% 的利潤才能實現這一目標。因此，我們也在計算並在第三季度向您提供最新情況。

And Benoit, just on NII, it really is more volatile and harder to predict, but it depends really on 2 factors. The first one I think will be sustained for some time to come, which is that the absolute cost of fund is higher, right? That clearly will be visible in coming quarters. But at the same time, it also depends on our trading strategy on the product mix demanded by our customers. So I think it remains a volatile line item from an NII FM perspective.

而 Benoit，就 NII 而言，它確實更加不穩定且更難以預測，但這實際上取決於兩個因素。第一個我認為會持續一段時間，就是資金的絕對成本比較高，對嗎？這在未來幾個季度中將顯而易見。但同時，這也取決於我們對客戶需求的產品組合的交易策略。因此，我認為從 NII FM 的角度來看，它仍然是一個不穩定的項目。

And if you think about 2024 on the FM NII kind of do you think we can go back to the EUR 300 million run rate? Or will that be kind of too positive?

如果您考慮 FM NII 到 2024 年的情況，您認為我們可以回到 3 億歐元的運行速度嗎？或者說這會不會太積極了？

No, I think it's harder to predict. But as I said, the big driver is that the absolute level of borrowing cost is higher, given Central Bank rates, and it depends on the product mix from our clients.

不，我認為這更難預測。但正如我所說，最大的推動因素是考慮到央行利率，借貸成本的絕對水平較高，這取決於我們客戶的產品組合。

The next question comes from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的本傑明·戈伊。

Two questions. One follow-up on 12.5%, is there any material risk weight inflation left from a regulatory point of view in your view? And so say, by 2025, would you keep a buffer for cyclical deterioration when your risk rates increase in that? And then secondly, a bit more high level or bigger picture question. Anything on AI you would like to flag you're currently doing or opportunities to see going forward?

兩個問題。關於 12.5% 的一個後續問題，您認為從監管角度來看是否還存在任何重大風險權重通脹？那麼，到 2025 年，當風險率上升時，您會為周期性惡化保留緩衝嗎？其次，是一個更高層次或更宏觀的問題。關於人工智能，您有什麼想要標記您目前正在做的事情或未來有機會看到的嗎？

Sorry, the second question?

抱歉，第二個問題？

Generative AI. Artificial intelligence.

生成式人工智能。人工智能。

You want me to talk about AI. Okay. So let me start with the second one. So we currently do use AI in a number of our processes such as contact centers or collections or marketing propensity models, for example. That helps us. And that can also help better decision-making if you do it in a fair and transparent way. That's the most important thing, especially with AI. When we talk about generative AI, yes, that is new. Currently, in ING, we have forbidden people to use generative AI in the ING processes. And we will, in a sandbox, experiment with 2 initiatives just completely separate from anything else to better understand what the benefit is because it could have a benefit, but also how we can control it. And before we are able to control it, we will not roll this out in the organization. We first will separately test it, as we always do with innovations, and then see to our extent we will roll it out in the organization. With regards to the capital, yes the -- with regards to the RWA, there are 2 elements. I will answer one of them. If you ask, are you keeping a buffer in the RWA, I think what you could -- you may mean is, to what extent are you taking countercyclical buffers into account in your capital levels, in this case, around 12.5%, and we have. So where all the capital levels and the buffers are all in the 12.5% so we've taken it into account. And then you also said something about Basel IV or regulatory impact on RWA. And for that, I give the floor to Ljiljana.

你想讓我談談人工智能。好的。那麼讓我從第二個開始。因此，我們目前確實在許多流程中使用人工智能，例如聯絡中心、集合或營銷傾向模型。這對我們有幫助。如果您以公平和透明的方式進行決策，這也有助於做出更好的決策。這是最重要的事情，尤其是對於人工智能而言。當我們談論生成人工智能時，是的，這是新的。目前，在 ING，我們禁止人們在 ING 流程中使用生成式人工智能。我們將在沙箱中試驗兩項完全獨立於其他任何舉措的舉措，以更好地了解好處是什麼，因為它可能有好處，而且還了解我們如何控制它。在我們能夠控制它之前，我們不會在組織中推廣它。我們首先將單獨測試它，就像我們一貫對創新所做的那樣，然後看看我們將在組織中推廣它。關於資本，是的，關於 RWA，有兩個要素。我將回答其中之一。如果你問，你是否在 RWA 中保留緩衝，我認為你可以 - 你可能的意思是，你在資本水平中考慮到反週期緩衝的程度，在這種情況下，約為 12.5%，我們有。因此，所有資本水平和緩衝都在 12.5% 內，因此我們已將其考慮在內。然後您還談到了巴塞爾 IV 或對 RWA 的監管影響。為此，我請 Ljiljana 發言。

As we've informed you several times, we have through our models or through the overlays absorbed most of the expected regulatory RWA inflation ahead of 2025 peso implementation. But as also said several times before and also seen this quarter, there are some quarterly adjustments that come from the regular life of the model life cycle, which can be related to methodology or policy update or calibration of existing models and these impacts or these volatility might come in or revert back. But through the cycle and as already the majority of the -- already impact has been taken into account in existing numbers.

正如我們多次通知您的那樣，我們已經通過我們的模型或通過疊加吸收了 2025 年比索實施之前的大部分預期監管 RWA 通貨膨脹。但正如之前多次說過的以及本季度所看到的那樣，模型生命週期的正常生命週期中會出現一些季度調整，這可能與現有模型的方法或政策更新或校準以及這些影響或波動有關可能會進來或恢復。但在整個週期中，大多數影響已經在現有數字中考慮在內。

The next question comes from Kiri Vijayarajah from HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Kiri Vijayarajah。

Yes. A couple of questions from my side. Firstly, coming back to the deposit campaign in Germany. Just a bit more color there on what the thinking was because was it about accelerating the primary customer number because it did feel like you've lost a little bit of momentum at the 1Q stage when I compare you to the run rate of last year? Or is it more about managing your overall deposit numbers because you may have had -- I think you did have some outflows on the Wholesale side, so you wanted to sort of compensate there? And should we view that campaign as a one-off then -- or could we see more of those deposit campaigns being repeated in some of your other geographies? And then secondly, turning to the loan growth side, all looks fairly robust and well balanced across different divisions and geographies. Is the aim to put the deposits to work quite quickly into loan growth, in which case maybe you're hoping to see a bit of a pickup? Or are you happy to let those -- that cash flow into the replicating portfolio. I guess I'm ultimately asking how sticky you think those new deposits are in terms of how you're going to redeploy that.

是的。我這邊有幾個問題。首先，回到德國的存款活動。只是關於想法的更多色彩，因為它是為了加速主要客戶數量，因為當我將您與去年的運行率進行比較時，確實感覺您在第一季度階段失去了一點動力？或者更多的是管理你的總存款數量，因為你可能已經——我認為你在批發方面確實有一些資金外流，所以你想在那裡進行補償？那麼我們是否應該將這一活動視為一次性活動，或者我們是否可以看到更多此類存款活動在你們的其他一些地區重複出現？其次，轉向貸款增長方面，不同部門和地區的一切看起來都相當強勁且平衡。目的是讓存款很快轉化為貸款增長嗎？在這種情況下，您可能希望看到貸款有所回升？或者您是否樂意讓這些現金流入複製投資組合。我想我最終會問你認為這些新存款對於你將如何重新部署來說有多大的粘性。

All right, good asked questions. Thank you. Now the deposit campaign in Germany was focused on gaining customers. And I don't know how many of you know, but we have a stated ambition of getting to 10 million customers in Germany by the end of 2025. We're currently at 9 million. Of the deposit inflows, over 2/3 came from existing customers, which is good. Typically, customers that are already existing and they bring more money to the bank are more sticky, so that's helpful. And we will always, like we've done also and how we have a lot of experience with marketing campaigns over the past number of decades with, of course, a big part of our business, Retail Banking in many countries. And in countries where we want to grow our customers, we now are at again have promotional rates, so not core rate increases, but promotional rates to attract customers, and we do that as well as we can time moment. And in this case, we were the first big bank who starts a campaign with us very well timed because then it's caught the attention of the public, and that's how we are looking at it.

好吧，問得好。謝謝。現在，德國的存款活動的重點是贏得客戶。我不知道你們中有多少人知道，我們的目標是到 2025 年底在德國擁有 1000 萬客戶。目前我們的客戶數量為 900 萬。在存款流入中，超過2/3來自現有客戶，這是好事。通常情況下，已經存在的客戶並且給銀行帶來了更多的錢，因此粘性更大，所以這是有幫助的。我們將永遠這樣做，就像我們在過去幾十年中所做的那樣，我們在營銷活動方面擁有豐富的經驗，當然，我們業務的很大一部分是在許多國家的零售銀行業務。在我們想要增加客戶的國家，我們現在再次推出促銷率，所以不是提高核心率，而是通過促銷率來吸引客戶，我們會盡可能地做到這一點。在這種情況下，我們是第一家與我們一起發起活動的大銀行，時機非常好，因為這樣就引起了公眾的注意，這就是我們的看法。

So whenever there is opportunities, we will look at it further in all the markets in which it active. And in general, I said, typically in the incumbent market of the Netherlands and Belgium, we will be more of a follower and we can be more assertive in these other markets but that really depends on the circumstance. When it comes to loan growth or putting these deposits to loan growth, look, in the end, we are really focused on being prudent here. What you see is that the mortgage market has come down in the biggest 3 markets which were active. That was about 80% of our total mortgage portfolio of a bit over EUR 300 billion comes from the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. And in these markets, the new dwellings that are being sold are down between 40% and 50%. So in that sense, the market is benign or is not actually active. And so what was good is that we were able to increase the number of mortgages sold and increase our books, but on a relative scale, it is limited. And the focus is on making sure that people can repay and we do not loosen our credit standards because we now have more deposits, and we remain very vigilant of what's going to happen in the next quarters.

因此，只要有機會，我們就會在它活躍的所有市場中進一步關注它。我說，總的來說，通常在荷蘭和比利時的現有市場，我們將更多地成為追隨者，我們可以在這些其他市場更加自信，但這實際上取決於具體情況。當談到貸款增長或將這些存款用於貸款增長時，最終我們真的非常注重謹慎。您看到的是，活躍的三大市場中的抵押貸款市場已經下跌。我們總抵押貸款投資組合略多於 3000 億歐元，其中約 80% 來自荷蘭、比利時和德國。在這些市場中，新住宅的銷售量下降了 40% 至 50%。所以從這個意義上說，市場是良性的或者實際上並不活躍。因此，好的一點是，我們能夠增加出售的抵押貸款數量並增加我們的賬簿，但相對規模而言，這是有限的。重點是確保人們能夠還款，並且我們不會放鬆信貸標準，因為我們現在有更多的存款，並且我們對未來幾個季度將發生的事情保持高度警惕。

The next question comes from Amit Goel from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的阿米特·戈爾。

I've got a few just relating to the Slide 16 replication portfolio. So one, I just wanted to check on the size of the book, it seems to have gone from about EUR 460 billion in Q3 to EUR 480 billion. So it's outpaced the growth in the deposits, so just curious how you're driving the size of that portfolio and the incremental piece, how you're reinvesting that. Secondly in terms of the 55% of the book, which is greater than 1 year, can you give us some idea of what the duration is on that part of the portfolio or how that's structured? And then lastly, just on the pass-through, just curious, I guess, relative to the average rate of 20% during the quarter, how that's kind of tracking towards the end of the quarter and into the start of Q3?

我有一些與幻燈片 16 複製組合相關的內容。第一，我只是想檢查一下這本書的規模，它似乎從第三季度的約 4600 億歐元增加到了 4800 億歐元。所以它超過了存款的增長，所以只是好奇你如何推動投資組合和增量部分的規模，你如何對其進行再投資。其次，就這本書的 55%（超過 1 年）而言，您能否告訴我們該投資組合部分的持續時間是多少，或者其結構如何？最後，就傳遞而言，我想只是好奇，相對於本季度 20% 的平均比率，到本季度末和第三季度初的跟踪情況如何？

Tanate, this seems like a lot of questions for you.

Tanate，這對你來說似乎有很多問題。

Well, Amit, thank you very much. The level of deposit growth is really something that is driven by customer growth, customer activities and the prevailing market. So from that perspective, the growth in liability is actually welcome from that perspective. And unlike when we were in negative rates, liability replication was actually P&L negative, but now replication is P&L positive. So that's a good sign. And we have given you this guidance on replication of 45-55. And from that perspective, we see that we replicate about that same level depending, of course, on different markets as well. And the pass-through rate, we are at about 20% as of the end of Q2, but we expect that year-to-date, it's around 29%.

嗯，阿米特，非常感謝你。存款增長水平實際上是由客戶增長、客戶活動和當前市場驅動的。因此，從這個角度來看，負債的增長實際上是受歡迎的。與負利率時不同的是，負債複製實際上是損益為負的，但現在復制是損益為正的。所以這是一個好兆頭。我們已經為您提供了有關 45-55 複製的指導。從這個角度來看，我們看到我們複製了大約相同的水平，當然，這也取決於不同的市場。截至第二季度末，傳遞率約為 20%，但我們預計今年迄今約為 29%。

Okay. Just on the size of the replication portfolio. I guess just what I was checking there was when you gave the disclosure, I think, at Q3 '22 you said the size of the book was about EUR 461 billion. So obviously, that's grown from EUR 461 billion to EUR 480 billion now. It seems like the book growth has outpaced the kind of the growth in actual customer deposits. So I just wanted to check what's driving the size of the replication portfolio? And can we expect that portfolio to continue to grow or be stable or maybe come down in the future?

好的。只是複制投資組合的規模。我想我正在檢查的是，當您披露信息時，我想，在 22 年第三季度，您說這本書的規模約為 4610 億歐元。顯然，這一數字已從 4,610 億歐元增長到了現在的 4,800 億歐元。賬面增長似乎超過了實際客戶存款的增長。所以我只是想檢查一下是什麼推動了複製投資組合的規模？我們能否期望該投資組合在未來繼續增長或保持穩定或可能下降？

It's driven by flows by our customers. So I think the expectations is that as maybe the market starts to slow down on deposit growth and then the replication portfolio will be less, and like we see in Q2, demand for deposits continue to come into the bank, then it will be more.

它是由我們的客戶流量驅動的。因此，我認為預期是，隨著市場存款增長可能開始放緩，然後復制投資組合將會減少，就像我們在第二季度看到的那樣，存款需求繼續進入銀行，然後就會更多。

Got it. And you're seeing that pass-through, I think you said of 29%. Is that correct? Right?

知道了。你看到了這種傳遞，我想你說的是 29%。那是對的嗎？正確的？

Yes, Yes. Year-to-date.

是的是的。今年迄今為止。

The next question comes from Flora Bocahut from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Flora Bocahut。

Yes. The first question I had is actually around the ROE target of 12%. I think this is a target you have on the CET1, that would be 12.5%. You're obviously at 12% over the last 4 quarters, but that kind of CET1 that is north of 14.5%. So the question here is really why stick to that target? I know you don't like to update those targets too often, but you know we've had many other banks updating ROE targets this year. So is there anything that's holding you from upgrading the ROE target towards 2025. Is there anything negative that you expect will change the picture? And then the second question is regarding the ongoing share buyback. I've been surprised by the speed at which it's been conducted so far in that sense. I know it's not in your hands that there is a mandate towards another investment bank. But in the sense that at this pace of buying just EUR 4 million a day, it would take beyond the deadline. So can you just confirm that, with certainty, the EUR 1.5 billion buyback will be finished at the deadline even though that implies a significant increase in the daily volumes that need to be bought until the deadline of 18th of October.

是的。我的第一個問題實際上是關於 12% 的 ROE 目標。我認為這是你對 CET1 的目標，即 12.5%。過去 4 個季度的 CET1 水平顯然為 12%，但 CET1 水平卻高於 14.5%。所以這裡的問題實際上是為什麼要堅持這個目標？我知道您不喜歡太頻繁地更新這些目標，但您知道今年我們已經有許多其他銀行更新了股本回報率目標。那麼，有什麼因素阻礙您將 ROE 目標提升到 2025 年嗎？您預計有什麼負面因素會改變這一情況嗎？第二個問題是關於正在進行的股票回購。迄今為止，從這個意義上說，我對它進行的速度感到驚訝。我知道對另一家投資銀行的授權並不在你手中。但從某種意義上說，按照每天僅購買 400 萬歐元的速度，這將超出最後期限。那麼您能否確認，15 億歐元的回購將在截止日期前完成，儘管這意味著在 10 月 18 日截止日期之前需要購買的每日數量將大幅增加。

Okay. Thank you, Flora. So on the share buyback, we can confirm with certainty the share buyback will be finalized in October. And then on the ROE targets, look, we have said that we gave indications at the investor presentation and that if we will give an update, we'll do that once a year after the fourth quarter results. And that's how we do it. And otherwise, we need to give up this every quarter. So we stick to the yearly cadence.

好的。謝謝你，弗洛拉。所以關於股票回購，我們可以肯定地確認股票回購將在10月份完成。然後關於股本回報率目標，看，我們已經說過，我們在投資者介紹中給出了指示，如果我們要提供更新，我們將在第四季度業績公佈後每年更新一次。我們就是這樣做的。否則，我們每個季度都需要放棄這個。所以我們堅持每年的節奏。

We'll take the next question from Guillaume Tiberghien from BNP Paribas Exane.

我們將回答法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Guillaume Tiberghien 提出的下一個問題。

So the question relates to the RWA in the Wholesale division. I understand the amount is weak and you expect it to remain subdued. I understand your models can go up or down depending on the model cycle. But I'm more interested in how you think about the strategy for the RWA development in the CIB. What do you actually want to do? Do you want to continue to lend with lower density? Lend less? So can you just elaborate a little bit about your strategy for growth in RWA in Wholesale?

因此，問題涉及批發部門的 RWA。據我了解，金額疲軟，您預計其將保持低迷。我了解您的模型可能會根據模型週期而上升或下降。但我更感興趣的是您如何看待 CIB 的 RWA 發展戰略。你到底想做什麼？您想繼續以較低的密度放貸嗎？少借錢？那麼，您能否詳細闡述一下您的批發 RWA 增長戰略？

Okay. Thank you for the question. Clearly, we are a bank that is focusing on very strong large corporates, and we have strong knowledge in a number of sectors and we have had it for decades. We stick to those sectors and we stick to those corporates. So there is not a change in risk structure or in risk appetite. At the moment, we do see some lending pickup in large lending deals. But at the same time, due to lower commodity prices, we also saw an impact in lower Trade & Commodity Finance, which outpaced that lending income. Markets remain relatively uncertain given also the economic outlook. But what we do work on is, first of all, to continue our strides to do the -- to help customers to transition to more sustainable business models in light of the (inaudible), of course. So that's what we focus on. But secondly, we're still very much an underwrite to hold bank and we also work on better capital velocity, which basically means that we will increasingly also underwrite and then sell. And that's what you have also partly seen now in the second quarter coming in. That part of the decrease in RWA in the Wholesale Banking was because we started in our strategy with also moving and doing more in capital velocity. Last but not least, also, we have further deleveraged our exposure in Russia. We continue to do that. Currently, our total exposure in Russia is EUR 1.7 billion, but came down from a couple of hundred million higher earlier this year and that has also led to some RWA release. So those are 2 factors. And I mentioned already the strategy we have regarding the Wholesale Banking lending and capital velocity.

好的。感謝你的提問。顯然，我們是一家專注於非常強大的大型企業的銀行，我們在許多領域擁有豐富的知識，而且我們已經擁有了數十年的知識。我們堅持這些行業和公司。因此，風險結構或風險偏好沒有變化。目前，我們確實看到大型貸款交易中的貸款有所回升。但與此同時，由於大宗商品價格下跌，我們也看到了貿易和商品融資下降的影響，其增速超過了貸款收入。考慮到經濟前景，市場仍然相對不確定。但我們所做的工作首先是繼續我們的步伐——當然，根據（聽不清）幫助客戶過渡到更可持續的商業模式。這就是我們關注的重點。但其次，我們在很大程度上仍然是持有銀行的承銷商，我們也在努力提高資本周轉率，這基本上意味著我們將越來越多地承銷然後出售。這就是你現在在第二季度看到的部分情況。批發銀行業務 RWA 下降的部分原因是我們在戰略開始時就在資本周轉率方面採取了更多行動。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們還進一步降低了在俄羅斯的風險敞口。我們將繼續這樣做。目前，我們在俄羅斯的總風險敞口為 17 億歐元，但較今年早些時候的幾億歐元有所下降，這也導致了一些 RWA 的釋放。所以這是兩個因素。我已經提到了我們關於批發銀行貸款和資本周轉率的策略。

Can I just do a small follow-up on the deposit beta. I didn't hear earlier, did you say you were at 29% at the end of the quarter?

我可以對存款測試版做一個小小的跟進嗎？我之前沒聽說，你是說季度末你的增長率是29%嗎？

So until now, we had 20%. But with the rate increase on the Netherlands as for August 15, the tracking would be 29%.

所以到目前為止，我們只有 20%。但隨著荷蘭 8 月 15 日加息，跟踪利率將達到 29%。

The next question comes from Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的克里斯哈勒姆。

Just 2 of them. So first, on capital allocation, you've talked a lot already about distribution. But if you look at the businesses, you're running well ahead of that ROE target at 12.5% quarter 1. Cost of risk is very low with those overlays still there. So given that, are there any business areas where you're now considering more capital -- putting more capital to work versus when those targets were initially calibrated, i.e., more capital-intensive areas? You touched on this already for the CIB, but just perhaps for the broader group. That's the first question. And then a follow-up to an earlier question on deposit growth in Germany. Is there any color you're able to give on the marginal cost of -- marginal cost of attracting those deposits? Obviously, there are some big headline deposit offers out there in Germany from some other players and I was just wondering how we should think about marginal deposit funding cost versus the aggregate cost.

只有其中 2 個。首先，關於資本配置，您已經談論了很多關於分配的內容。但如果你看看這些業務，就會發現你遠遠領先於第一季度 12.5% 的 ROE 目標。由於這些覆蓋仍然存在，風險成本非常低。因此，考慮到這一點，您現在是否正在考慮在哪些業務領域投入更多資本——與最初調整這些目標時相比，投入更多資本，即資本密集型領域？您已經針對 CIB 談到了這一點，但也許只是針對更廣泛的群體。這是第一個問題。然後是對先前有關德國存款增長問題的後續回答。您能否對吸引這些存款的邊際成本給出任何解釋？顯然，德國其他一些參與者提出了一些重大的存款報價，我只是想知道我們應該如何考慮邊際存款融資成本與總成本。

Right. On the first -- well, on the first one, capital allocation, we will always look to optimize capital allocation. We have return equity targets for Wholesale Banking and Business Banking and Retail Banking, and we price the marginal deal. And we're not going to deviate from that because we now have more capital. We want to continue to grow with prudency in all of the markets in which we're active. Big focus also in further growth in Germany, like I said, growth in Retail customers. And we want to strengthen our network position that we have as a wholesale bank across the world. But again, we do that in the existing framework of pricing the marginal deal to the return. If we can't make that and if we can't make the client return wholes, we will not do it. No deviation from that. Secondly, on the deposit growth in Germany, that marketing campaign at the time was 103%. So also, we made money on that marketing campaign because the ECB rate at that time was already higher.

正確的。第一個——嗯，第一個，資本配置，我們將始終尋求優化資本配置。我們對批發銀行業務、商業銀行業務和零售銀行業務設定了股本回報目標，並對邊際交易進行定價。我們不會偏離這一點，因為我們現在擁有更多的資本。我們希望在我們活躍的所有市場中繼續謹慎增長。正如我所說，重點還在於德國的進一步增長，即零售客戶的增長。我們希望加強我們作為全球批發銀行的網絡地位。但同樣，我們是在現有的邊際交易定價框架內做到這一點的。如果我們不能做到這一點，如果我們不能讓客戶退回整個產品，我們就不會這樣做。沒有偏離這一點。其次，關於德國的存款增長，當時的營銷活動是103%。同樣，我們通過該營銷活動賺錢了，因為當時歐洲央行的利率已經較高。

The next question comes from Farquhar Murray from Autonomous.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Farquhar Murray。

Two questions, if I may. Firstly, on capital management, kind of 2 competing signals in recent months. One, the cut in the O-SII buffer and the other the heavy drawdown on the stress test. I just wondered if you could outline how those play through into the discussions on the 3Q update and more generally the dialogue with the ECB. On paper, I think the stress test should feed into the P2G in some way. So I wouldn't mind just some color around that. And then secondly, just coming back to Benoit's question on the Financial Markets NII. If I look back more than a decade, I don't have a period where FM NII was negative, though it is volatile. But your answer to Benoit seems to suggest that if I think rates remain more normal from here, I should build in a structurally negative NII for FM with a positive counterpart in other? Are we understanding you're right there? And how do I square with the history?

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。首先，在資本管理方面，近幾個月出現了兩個相互競爭的信號。一是 O-SII 緩衝區的削減，二是壓力測試的大幅縮減。我只是想知道您是否能概述一下這些內容如何融入有關第三季度更新的討論以及更廣泛的與歐洲央行的對話中。從理論上講，我認為壓力測試應該以某種方式融入到 P2G 中。所以我不介意周圍有一些顏色。其次，回到 Benoit 關於金融市場 NII 的問題。如果我回顧十多年，我沒有發現 FM NII 為負值的時期，儘管它很不穩定。但你對伯努瓦的回答似乎表明，如果我認為利率從這裡開始保持更正常，我應該為 FM 建立一個結構性負的 NII，而在其他方面建立一個正的對應物？我們明白你就在那裡嗎？我如何與歷史保持一致？

Thank you. Regarding the lower capital buffer of the DNB at the time that, that buffer came in, that was at the time that there was no 3-pillar system in Europe. So the ECB hasn't started this yet. And there was no SRB and no European deposit system. And in that setting, local supervisors increased buffers for their large banks. Let's put it, a too-big-to-fill buffer. Increasingly, banks have increased their own capital and there is now that 3-pillar system in Europe, as a result of which, that has undoubtedly weighed for DNB to, in the end, decrease the buffer. And that means that the (inaudible) capital requirements that I just said they moved to approximately 10.7%. And therefore, that's in line with our around 12.5%. And regarding stress test. The stress test is a stress test as there are many stress tests. We do a number of strategies internally as well that we share with the ECB and with other supervisors. And that has no bearing currently on our 12.5% target, and we'll remain in positive discussions with the ECB about the next steps that we would then -- then to take, we will update you for in the third quarter.

謝謝。關於德國央行當時較低的資本緩衝，緩衝出現時，當時歐洲還沒有三支柱體系。所以歐洲央行還沒有開始這樣做。而且沒有SRB，也沒有歐洲存款體系。在這種情況下，當地監管機構增加了對其大型銀行的緩衝。可以說，緩衝區太大而無法填充。銀行越來越多地增加自己的資本，而現在歐洲已經形成了三支柱體系，這無疑給德國央行帶來了最終減少緩衝的壓力。這意味著我剛才所說的（聽不清）資本要求已升至約 10.7%。因此，這與我們的 12.5% 左右一致。還有關於壓力測試。壓力測試就是壓力測試，壓力測試有很多。我們也在內部製定了許多策略，並與歐洲央行和其他監管機構分享。目前這對我們 12.5% 的目標沒有影響，我們將繼續與歐洲央行積極討論我們接下來要採取的措施，我們將在第三季度向您通報最新情況。

Then Farquhar, on NII in Financial Markets, maybe a bit more nuance in the answer. It's 3 things, right? The absolute rates are higher, but it also depends on the product mix. And also it depends on the differences between major currencies, the arbitrage between euro and dollar, for example, right? So I wouldn't call it that you should be looking at a structural increase in NII of that such, but I remain that funding cost is higher, but that it just depends on these 3 things, which remains volatile in the financial market results.

然後，法誇爾在《金融市場 NII》中的回答可能有一些細微差別。這是 3 件事，對嗎？絕對比率較高，但這也取決於產品組合。而且還取決於主要貨幣之間的差異，例如歐元和美元之間的套利，對吧？因此，我不會說你應該考慮NII的結構性增長，但我仍然認為融資成本更高，但這僅取決於這三件事，而這三件事在金融市場結果中仍然不穩定。

But just a more general question. If I think of things as normalizing from here, should I build in a structurally negative NII for FM? Is that the kind of permanent structural outcome?

但這只是一個更普遍的問題。如果我認為事情從這裡開始正常化，我是否應該為 FM 建立一個結構性負面的 NII？這是一種永久性的結構性結果嗎？

No, I think it just depends on movements, right? You have, for example, opportunities, trading opportunities, product mix from customers. So I wouldn't structurally put it in like at the levels that you see in Q2, but at the same time funding costs are higher.

不，我認為這只是取決於動作，對嗎？例如，您擁有來自客戶的機會、交易機會、產品組合。因此，我不會在結構上將其置於第二季度的水平，但同時融資成本更高。

Equally, should I maybe transition back to history? Would that be a more reasonable guesstimate?

同樣，我是否應該回到歷史？這是一個更合理的猜測嗎？

I would not say that, that would be a good guidance in light of current interest rate environment.

我不會這麼說，鑑於當前的利率環境，這將是一個很好的指導。

The next question comes from Matt Clark from Mediobanca.

下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的馬特·克拉克 (Matt Clark)。

Two questions, please. Firstly, on risk-weighted assets, looking at template CR8 in your Pillar 3 disclosure. You've had kind of a tailwind for IRB risk-weighted assets from asset quality in the past few quarters and also a tailwind from the other category there of a couple of billion per quarter. I was just hoping you could give some explanation there about why your asset quality is getting better to the counterintuitive and what the other benefits to your risk-weighted assets, which has been quite meaningful, has been? And then secondly, on the kind of cross-currency interest rate arbitrage trades. If this impact started around third quarter last year and you seem to be saying it's going to last a bit more into the third quarter this year, is it the right conclusion to draw that you put these trades on with a kind of 12 months duration? Just trying to work out how long you're willing to tie up your balance sheet for in these trades as a general rule when the opportunity arises.

請教兩個問題。首先，關於風險加權資產，請查看第三支柱披露中的模板 CR8。在過去的幾個季度中，IRB 風險加權資產從資產質量方面獲得了一定程度的推動力，同時也從其他類別獲得了每季度數十億美元的推動力。我只是希望你能解釋一下為什麼你的資產質量變得越來越好，以至於違反直覺，以及你的風險加權資產的其他好處是什麼，這是非常有意義的？其次，關於跨貨幣利率套利交易的類型。如果這種影響在去年第三季度左右開始，並且您似乎說這種影響將持續到今年第三季度，那麼您將這些交易持續 12 個月的時間是否是正確的結論？只是想弄清楚，當機會出現時，作為一般規則，您願意在這些交易中將資產負債表束縛多久。

Okay. Tanate, the Treasury cross FX rates.

好的。 Tanate，財政部交叉外匯匯率。

That trade and that -- the environment for that trade continue to exist, but it should decline over the next 3 months. But guidance for 12 months, that I think just too many factors to factor in. So I think the trade exists, it's going to decline somewhat in Q3.

該貿易以及該貿易的環境繼續存在，但在未來 3 個月內應該會下降。但是 12 個月的指導，我認為需要考慮的因素太多。所以我認為貿易存在，它會在第三季度有所下降。

But if I understand it right, you put these trades for a defined term and you kind of lock in at the inception, the economics spread will be defined at the outset.

但如果我理解正確的話，你將這些交易放在一個定義的期限內，並且你從一開始就鎖定了，經濟利差將在一開始就被定義。

I understand your question, yes. No, I completely understand your question. These trades are tended to be short in duration.

我明白你的問題，是的。不，我完全理解你的問題。這些交易的持續時間往往很短。

And by short you mean?

你說的簡短是指？

I don't think we're going to give our trading positions on an analyst call. But let's say that the trade exists, it will decline in Q3, and that's our guidance.

我認為我們不會在分析師電話會議上透露我們的交易頭寸。但假設貿易存在，它將在第三季度下降，這就是我們的指導。

Okay. Ljiljana, RWA.

好的。利賈納，RWA。

And as you know, RWA size and dynamics depend on a number of factors and it's subject to volatility based on both internal and external factors. What you have noticed based on the decrease due to asset quality is driven by several reasons. The most significant one is successful derisking of Russian exposure, which has taken a huge amount of our RWA in the '22 and is now at EUR 4.5 billion compared to even EUR 13.5 billion a year ago. So that's one that is first. Second one is clearly the structure and quality of your loan book impacts the RWA from the perspective of the tenure, so what's the structure of your short term versus long term exposure but as well what is collateral that you're having. Third, there is clearly a dynamic in the portfolio where there are certain repayments of the higher rating classes -- worst rating classes in favor of the ones better rated. And all of these together might have offset some of the negative example, impacts from the environment like housing price. But let's not forget there as well we do have floors on some of our portfolios. So these negative impacts from the environment might have been already encountered for. So in general, that's the overall picture.

如您所知，RWA 的規模和動態取決於許多因素，並且會受到內部和外部因素的波動影響。您注意到，資產質量導致的下降是由多種原因造成的。最重要的是成功降低了俄羅斯風險敞口，這在 22 年佔用了我們大量的 RWA，目前為 45 億歐元，而一年前甚至為 135 億歐元。這是第一個。第二個問題是，從期限的角度來看，您的貸款賬簿的結構和質量顯然會影響RWA，因此您的短期風險敞口與長期風險敞口的結構是什麼，以及您擁有的抵押品是什麼。第三，投資組合中顯然存在一種動態，即較高評級類別會得到一定的償還——最差評級類別有利於評級較高的類別。所有這些加在一起可能會抵消一些負面影響，例如房價等環境的影響。但我們也不要忘記，我們的一些投資組合確實有底線。因此，這些來自環境的負面影響可能已經遇到了。總的來說，這就是整體情況。

And specifically, this other line that's also been quite meaningful on that table, EUR 1.7 billion of benefit this quarter.

具體來說，另一條線在該表上也非常有意義，本季度收益為 17 億歐元。

You would have to be more specific. Which exactly line because I do not have a template in front.

你必須更具體。這正是因為我前面沒有模板。

Why don't we come back to that.

我們為什麼不回到那個話題呢？

Okay. I'll take it off-line.

好的。我會把它下線。

Yes. We take off-line with media relations. Thank you. Sorry, Investor Relations, I've been corrected.

是的。我們與媒體關係脫線。謝謝。抱歉，投資者關係部，我已更正。

We will take the next question from Anke Reingen from RBC.

我們將回答 RBC 的 Anke Reingen 的下一個問題。

Just 2 small ones, please. On the capital distribution. Is there the comment about the roughly equal steps, could that be under review on other Q3 update because the commentary seems to be a bit more that it could potentially a bit more? And then secondly, on the cost, do you think the 7% growth year-over-year is a good indicator for the full year trend?

只要2個小的，請。關於資本分配。是否有關於大致相同步驟的評論，是否可能會在其他第三季度更新中進行審查，因為評論似乎有點多，可能會多一點？其次，關於成本，您認為7%的同比增長是全年趨勢的一個很好的指標嗎？

Okay. So with the roughly equal steps, we meant roughly equal steps in terms of CET level moves. So if I translate that, that if there are -- if there was a bigger delta between 12.5% and where we are in our capital, we need to make bigger CET moves to come down. So other colleagues already said, hey, but mathematically that means that you would need to do more to get to those roughly equal steps. And I've confirmed that I have also made that same calculation. With regards to the 7% run rate, that's indeed what he said. That's a clean cost increase of this quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago is 7%, which is inflation, but also the investment that we make in our digitalization and marketing and growth efforts for customers. That is a good run rate trend that we currently see.

好的。因此，對於大致相等的步數，我們的意思是在 CET 級別移動方面大致相等的步數。因此，如果我翻譯一下，如果 12.5% 與我們的資本水平之間存在更大的增量，我們需要採取更大的 CET 舉措才能下降。所以其他同事已經說過，嘿，但從數學上來說，這意味著你需要做更多的事情才能達到這些大致相同的步驟。我已經確認我也做了同樣的計算。至於7%的運行率，他確實是這麼說的。與去年同期相比，本季度的清潔成本增長了 7%，這是通貨膨脹的結果，也是我們在數字化、營銷和客戶增長方面的投資。這是我們目前看到的良好運行率趨勢。

As there are no further questions, that will conclude today's question-and-answer session. I will hand the call back to Mr. Steven van Rijswijk for any closing remarks.

由於沒有其他問題了，今天的問答環節就到此結束。我會將電話轉回史蒂文·範·賴斯韋克 (Steven van Rijswijk) 先生以供結束髮言。

Yes. Thank you, operator. That's the end of the analyst call. But not before I thank Marieke Bakker because she has been working vigilantly over the last number of years to keep us sharp and also have good conversation with all of you and make all these fantastic presentations. So I would like to thank her. She's going to move on in ING. She's going to work in another part of ING, and we're very happy that she remains with ING, but I want to express my appreciation for Marieke. And I would like to thank you all for again listening and for your questions. I wish you a great day, and also wish you a great summer. Thank you.

是的。謝謝你，接線員。分析師電話會議到此結束。但在此之前，我要感謝 Marieke Bakker，因為她在過去幾年中一直保持警惕，使我們保持敏銳，並與大家進行了良好的交談，並做出了所有這些精彩的演示。所以我要感謝她。她將在 ING 繼續前進。她將在 ING 的另一個部門工作，我們很高興她留在 ING，但我想表達我對 Marieke 的感激之情。我要感謝大家再次聆聽並提出問題。祝您度過愉快的一天，也祝您度過一個愉快的夏天。謝謝。

Thank you. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。