ING Groep NV (ING) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. This is Marianne welcoming you to ING's First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

    早上好。我是 Marianne,歡迎您參加 ING 的 2023 年第一季度電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • Before handing this conference call over to Steven van Rijswijk, Chief Executive Officer of ING Group, let me first say that today's comments may include forward-looking statements, such as statements regarding future developments and our business expectations for our future financial performance and any statements not including as historical fact. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements.

    在將本次電話會議轉交給 ING 集團首席執行官 Steven van Rijswijk 之前,我首先要說,今天的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述,例如有關未來發展的陳述以及我們對未來財務業績的業務預期以及任何陳述不包括作為歷史事實。實際結果可能與任何前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異。

  • A discussion of factors that may cause actual results to differ from those in any forward-looking statements is contained in our public filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and our earnings press release as posted on our website today. Furthermore, nothing in today's comments constitutes an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any securities.

    對可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中的結果不同的因素的討論包含在我們的公開文件中,包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告和我們的收益新聞今天發佈在我們的網站上。此外,今天的評論中沒有任何內容構成出售要約或購買任何證券的任何要約。

  • Good morning, Steven, over to you.

    早上好,史蒂文,交給你了。

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter of 2023 results call. I hope that you're all well. And as usual, I'm joined by our CFO, Tanate Phutrakul; and our CRO, Ljiljana Cortan. And I'm pleased to take you through today's presentation. After that, we will take your questions.

    早上好,歡迎來到我們 2023 年第一季度的業績電話會議。我希望你一切都好。和往常一樣,我們的首席財務官 Tanate Phutrakul 也加入了我的行列;以及我們的首席風險官 Ljiljana Cortan。我很高興帶你完成今天的演講。之後,我們將回答您的問題。

  • We started 2023 with a very strong quarter in both our Retail and Wholesale business by keeping focus on our customers and delivering value and demonstrating stability in a rather turbulent time for the banking sector. We continue to record organic growth and added another 106,000 primary customers who choose ING for our superior customer experience. And this is supported by our digital-only mobile-first strategy as evidenced in the large share of mobile-only customers.

    從 2023 年開始,我們的零售和批發業務在一個非常強勁的季度中保持關注我們的客戶並提供價值並在銀行業相當動蕩的時期展示穩定性。我們繼續保持有機增長,並增加了另外 106,000 名主要客戶,他們選擇 ING 是因為我們提供卓越的客戶體驗。這得到了我們的純數字移動優先戰略的支持,這一點在大量純移動客戶中得到了證明。

  • Another achievement was the growing volume mobilized to help our Wholesale Banking clients transition to a more sustainable business model. At EUR 22 billion, the volume mobilized was up by more than 25% compared to the first quarter of 2022.

    另一項成就是動員的數量不斷增加,以幫助我們的批發銀行業務客戶過渡到更可持續的業務模式。與 2022 年第一季度相比,調動的金額為 220 億歐元,增長了 25% 以上。

  • In our P&L, we continue to see the benefits of the current rate environment, both on our retail customer deposits and our wholesale Payments & Cash Management business. This comes on top of the structurally higher fee base and strong performance on total income with year-on-year growth of 23%.

    在我們的損益表中,我們繼續看到當前利率環境對我們的零售客戶存款和我們的批發支付與現金管理業務的好處。這是在結構性更高的費用基礎和總收入表現強勁的基礎上實現的,同比增長 23%。

  • For the quarter, we realized a strong 13% ROE, increasing our fourth quarter rolling average ROE to 9.7%. And all of this has enabled us to announce an additional distribution in the form of a EUR 1.5 billion share buyback, which will kick off tomorrow.

    本季度,我們實現了 13% 的強勁 ROE,將第四季度滾動平均 ROE 提高至 9.7%。所有這一切使我們能夠宣布以 15 億歐元股票回購的形式進行額外分配,該回購將於明天開始。

  • We accomplished all this in another exceptional quarter, although, honestly, there has not been a dull moment since I became CEO almost 3 years ago. And I'm proud that our performance has been strong throughout these years, and I'm confident we will continue to deliver value. This confidence is underpinned in my belief that we have the right strategic focus and a fortress-like balance sheet with a strong funding and liquidity profile, which provides a robust foundation to build on. Before we go into the financial results, I want to spend some time on these topics.

    我們在另一個出色的季度完成了所有這一切,不過,老實說,自從我 3 年前成為首席執行官以來,從未有過沉悶的時刻。我很自豪這些年來我們的表現一直很強勁,我相信我們將繼續創造價值。這種信心的基礎是我相信我們擁有正確的戰略重點和堡壘般的資產負債表,具有強大的資金和流動性狀況,為繼續發展奠定了堅實的基礎。在我們進入財務結果之前,我想花一些時間討論這些話題。

  • Slide 3 shows our strategic priorities and focus for 2023. And one priority is to deliver a superior customer experience, a key differentiator for customer growth. Our priority is sustainability, where an important aim is to support our clients in their transition to a more sustainable business model. A superior customer experience means easy, relevant, personal and instant. And a key enabler for this is the seamless digital delivery with minimal human intervention, and this requires straight-through processing of customer journeys.

    幻燈片 3 顯示了我們 2023 年的戰略重點和重點。其中一個重點是提供卓越的客戶體驗,這是客戶增長的關鍵差異化因素。我們的首要任務是可持續性,其中一個重要目標是支持我們的客戶過渡到更可持續的商業模式。卓越的客戶體驗意味著簡單、相關、個性化和即時。實現這一目標的一個關鍵因素是無縫數字交付,最少的人工干預,這需要直接處理客戶旅程。

  • Getting a mortgage is an important customer journey where being quick and predictable can be more important than price. Increasing the level of STP, straight-through processing, helps us with that. For example, in Germany, we have reduced the time to yes for brokers from 4 to 2 days. In Italy, we improved all aspects of the mortgage process with a faster time to yes and time to cash and a higher first-time right.

    獲得抵押貸款是一個重要的客戶旅程,在此過程中快速且可預測比價格更重要。提高直通式處理的 STP 水平有助於我們實現這一目標。例如,在德國,我們已將經紀人的“是”時間從 4 天減少到 2 天。在意大利,我們改進了抵押貸款流程的各個方面,縮短了批准時間和兌現時間,並提高了首次成功率。

  • Streamlining how we interact with our customers is another important element of our customer experience as an increasing part of that interaction is through chatbots we use. And we also use AI to make the interaction more effective and a more personalized experience.

    簡化我們與客戶的互動方式是我們客戶體驗的另一個重要元素,因為越來越多的互動是通過我們使用的聊天機器人進行的。我們還使用 AI 來使交互更有效,並提供更個性化的體驗。

  • On KYC, the foundation is in place. Now the focus is on how we can be more effective and efficient. And aside from combining efforts with other banking supervisors, the focus is on working smarter internally. For example, improving the assessment and documentation of multiple individual transaction alerts for one single client, which broadens the view of a client's behavior and increases the number of alerts that can be handled by one specialist.

    在 KYC 上,基礎已經到位。現在的重點是我們如何才能更有效率。除了與其他銀行業監管機構共同努力外,重點是在內部更智能地工作。例如,改進對單個客戶的多個單獨交易警報的評估和記錄,從而拓寬客戶行為的視野並增加一名專家可以處理的警報數量。

  • On female representation last year, we set a target of at least 30% by 2025 for our top 400 leaders, and we have extended that target to at least 35% by '28. So with that, we've also set a target to increase the share of women in the group of around 5,000 employees just below top management from 27% at '22 to at least 30% by 2025.

    關於去年的女性代表,我們設定了到 2025 年至少 30% 的目標,我們的前 400 名領導人,我們已經將該目標擴大到到 28 年至少 35%。因此,我們還設定了一個目標,即到 2025 年,將女性在高層管理人員以下約 5,000 名員工中的比例從 22 世紀的 27% 提高到至少 30%。

  • In sustainability, the financing of renewable energy is an important focus area as the shift to renewable energy needs to go faster, which have a target on new loan growth for renewable energy. And 2022, this book grew 10%, and we aim to continue this growing trend. We combine this with further restricting the financing of new oil and gas fields by extending the existing restriction for upstream to the infrastructure activities that [are not] in the fields.

    在可持續性方面,可再生能源的融資是一個重要的重點領域,因為需要加快向可再生能源的轉變,其目標是可再生能源的新貸款增長。到 2022 年,這本書增長了 10%,我們的目標是繼續保持這種增長趨勢。我們將這一點與進一步限制新油氣田的融資相結合,將對上游的現有限制擴大到[不]在油氣田的基礎設施活動。

  • Finally, we worked to broaden the scope of Terra. And like we have done for steel, we are part of a working group to develop a framework for aluminum. On oil and gas, we are developing metrics and targets for mid- and downstream, and we will cover an additional part of the value chain by including trade and commodity finance in our reduction targets in 2024.

    最後,我們努力拓寬 Terra 的範圍。就像我們為鋼鐵所做的那樣,我們是開發鋁框架的工作組的一部分。在石油和天然氣方面,我們正在為中下游制定指標和目標,我們將通過將貿易和商品融資納入 2024 年的減排目標來涵蓋價值鏈的額外部分。

  • Then to our strong funding and liquidity profile on Slide 4. On the [funding] side, 60% of our balance sheet consists of customer deposits. The vast majority comes from our retail customers who keep EUR 549 billion in deposits with ING. And this is a highly granular deposit book as it represents a large retail customer base spread over 10 countries. 70% of these deposits are insured, forming a stable basis, which has been steadily growing over the years. More details can be found in the appendix of this slide deck.

    然後是幻燈片 4 中我們強大的資金和流動性狀況。在 [資金] 方面,我們資產負債表的 60% 由客戶存款組成。絕大多數來自我們的零售客戶,他們在 ING 持有 5490 億歐元的存款。這是一個高度精細的存款簿,因為它代表了遍布 10 個國家/地區的龐大零售客戶群。這些存款中有70%是投保的,形成了穩定的基礎,多年來一直在穩步增長。可以在本幻燈片的附錄中找到更多詳細信息。

  • As you can see from the recent NII development, in a positive rate environment, our deposit base has a material embedded value that will support our revenues in the coming years. On the liquidity side, our group LCR stood at 134% on a 4-quarter rolling basis and at 137% at the end of the first quarter of '23. And these ratios exclude any local liquidity surpluses that are not transferable cross-border and are based on a sizable high-quality liquid asset book, HQLA, of EUR 187 billion.

    正如您從最近的 NII 發展中看到的那樣,在積極的利率環境下,我們的存款基礎具有實質性的內含價值,將在未來幾年支持我們的收入。在流動性方面,我們的集團 LCR 在 4 季度滾動基礎上為 134%,在 2023 年第一季度末為 137%。這些比率不包括任何不可跨境轉移的本地流動性盈餘,並且基於 1870 億歐元的大量高質量流動資產賬簿 HQLA。

  • And in addition to HQLA, we have large amounts of readily available ECB-eligible retained assets and other non-HQLA liquid assets, bringing the total level of available liquidity resources to EUR 286 billion -- sorry, EUR 268 billion. In combination with our strong and stable deposit book, we feel very comfortable with this level of liquidity.

    除了 HQLA 之外,我們還有大量現成的 ECB 合格保留資產和其他非 HQLA 流動資產,使可用流動性資源的總水平達到 2860 億歐元——抱歉,2680 億歐元。結合我們強大而穩定的存款簿,我們對這種流動性水平感到非常滿意。

  • And then move to Slide 5. Over the past years, we have built a solid track record of delivering an attractive return for our shareholders. ING continues to be a strong investment case as the best European [universal] bank with consistent strategy execution, income growth, discipline on expenses and strong asset quality. And combined with our strong capital position, we are in a position to return capital to our shareholders. Including the share buyback we announced today, our shareholder return for 2023 already stands at an attractive 8%.

    然後轉到幻燈片 5。在過去的幾年裡,我們在為股東提供有吸引力的回報方面建立了良好的記錄。 ING 仍然是一個強有力的投資案例,作為歐洲最好的 [通用] 銀行,具有一致的戰略執行、收入增長、支出紀律和強大的資產質量。結合我們強大的資本狀況,我們能夠將資本返還給我們的股東。包括我們今天宣布的股票回購,我們 2023 年的股東回報率已經達到 8%,頗具吸引力。

  • Slide 6 shows our financial targets for '25 and our first quarter '23 performance. On fee growth in daily banking, we see further room to increase or introduce fees. In investment products, the continued growth of accounts is a strong base for fee growth when market confidence improves, and this confidence will also support growth of lending fees. Higher fees will support total income growth, though for '23, the main driver will continue to be liability NII. And while there are some uncertainties, which is further central bank rates, deposit tracking and customer behavior, the tailwind from liabilities will continue.

    幻燈片 6 顯示了我們 25 年的財務目標和 23 年第一季度的業績。關於日常銀行業務的費用增長,我們認為還有進一步增加或引入費用的空間。在投資產品方面,當市場信心改善時,賬戶的持續增長是手續費增長的強大基礎,這種信心也將支持借貸手續費的增長。更高的費用將支持總收入增長,但對於 23 年,主要驅動力將繼續是責任 NII。儘管存在一些不確定性,例如央行利率、存款跟踪和客戶行為,但負債的順風將繼續存在。

  • We expect total income growth of more than 10% for 2023 with lower growth in '24 and '25, reflecting the flattening of the curve. And this income growth will support an improvement of our cost-to-income ratio. On the cost side, we see the pressure from high inflation, and we continue to invest in our business and to execute our strategy, which would bring benefits in the longer term.

    我們預計 2023 年總收入增長超過 10%,24 年和 25 年增長較低,反映出曲線趨平。這種收入增長將支持我們成本收入比的改善。在成本方面,我們看到了高通脹的壓力,我們繼續投資於我們的業務並執行我們的戰略,這將帶來長期利益。

  • On our CET1 ratio, we intend to move our target CET1 ratio of around 12.5% through our 50% payout of resilient net profits, combined with additional distributions in roughly equal steps. And our return on equity, with the targeted development of the cost-to-income ratio are low through-the-cycle risk costs and a CET1 ratio target of around that 12.5%, we have confidence we will reach our targeted 12% ROE by 2025.

    關於我們的 CET1 比率,我們打算通過支付 50% 的彈性淨利潤,結合大致相等的額外分配,將我們的目標 CET1 比率提高到 12.5% 左右。我們的股本回報率,隨著成本收入比的目標發展,整個週期的風險成本很低,CET1 比率目標在 12.5% 左右,我們有信心我們將在2025.

  • Now we're going to move on to the first quarter results on Slide 8. The first quarter of this year showed a strong performance of our pre-provision profit. When excluding volatile items and regulatory costs, pre-provision profit was up 31% year-on-year and 11% higher quarter-on-quarter. And I will address the underlying P&L lines in the following slides.

    現在我們將轉到幻燈片 8 上的第一季度業績。今年第一季度我們的撥備前利潤表現強勁。剔除波動性項目和監管成本後,撥備前利潤同比增長 31%,環比增長 11%。我將在接下來的幻燈片中介紹基本的損益表。

  • Slide 9 shows the continued strong development of NII. This was driven by liability NII, reflecting rate increases, limited deposit tracking and a continued deposit inflow. The positive impact was also clearly visible in Wholesale Banking with our Payments & Cash Management business benefiting from higher interest rates.

    幻燈片 9 顯示了 NII 的持續強勁發展。這是由負債 NII 推動的,反映了利率上升、有限的存款跟踪和持續的存款流入。批發銀行業務的積極影響也顯而易見,我們的支付和現金管理業務受益於更高的利率。

  • In lending NII, we saw year-on-year pressure on mortgage margins due to rising interest rates as client rates generally track higher funding costs for the delay as well as declining income from prepayment penalties. Quarter-on-quarter, this effect stabilized and lending margins slightly decreased -- or increased. Furthermore, on both comparable quarters, we saw the impact of a temporary shift of NII to other income in Treasury and Financial Markets.

    在貸款 NII 中,我們看到由於利率上升導致抵押貸款利潤率同比壓力,因為客戶利率通常跟踪延遲的更高融資成本以及預付款罰款收入下降。與上一季度相比,這種影響趨於穩定,貸款利潤率略有下降或上升。此外,在兩個可比季度,我們都看到了 NII 暫時轉移到國債和金融市場其他收入的影響。

  • In Treasury, this reflected activities to benefit from prevailing favorable FX swap interest rates differentials; while in Financial Markets, this was due to the impact of rising rates on hedge positions. And as mentioned on the previous slide, the boost in other income was further driven by Financial Markets benefiting from good client flow and market volatility. Excluding the net TLTRO impact and the Polish mortgage moratorium, our net interest margin for the quarter increased by 11 basis points to 159 basis points, mainly reflecting the higher NII on liabilities.

    在財政部,這反映了從現行有利的外匯掉期利率差異中獲益的活動;而在金融市場,這是由於利率上升對對沖頭寸的影響。正如上一張幻燈片所述,金融市場受益於良好的客戶流量和市場波動,進一步推動了其他收入的增長。排除 TLTRO 淨影響和波蘭暫停抵押貸款,我們本季度的淨息差增加了 11 個基點,達到 159 個基點,主要反映了負債的 NII 較高。

  • Slide 10 shows net core lending growth. And we are pleased to continue to support economic growth and our clients in meeting the demand across our businesses and regions. In Retail, mortgages continue to grow, although at a lower pace, reflecting an overall slowdown of demand, driven by uncertainty and higher interest rates. Higher net core lending and business lending was mainly visible in Belgium.

    幻燈片 10 顯示淨核心貸款增長。我們很高興繼續支持經濟增長和我們的客戶,以滿足我們業務和地區的需求。在零售業,抵押貸款繼續增長,但增速有所放緩,反映出在不確定性和利率上升的推動下需求整體放緩。較高的淨核心貸款和商業貸款主要出現在比利時。

  • In Wholesale Banking, loan growth was visible in lending. This was more than offset by lower utilization in Working Capital Solutions and lower lending volume in Trade & Commodity Finance, reflecting lower commodity prices. Going forward, with still heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, we expect loan demand to remain subdued.

    在批發銀行業務中,貸款增長明顯。這被營運資金解決方案的較低利用率和貿易與商品融資的較低貸款量所抵消,反映出較低的商品價格。展望未來,由於宏觀經濟的不確定性仍然加劇,我們預計貸款需求將保持低迷。

  • Net deposit growth was EUR 1.3 billion [due to] retail and mainly reflecting inflows in Poland, Spain, Belgium and Germany, partly offset by an outflow in the Netherlands, mainly due to operational payments made by our business clients and an internal shift from savings to asset under management from our private banking customers. Asset under management further increase driven by external flows. And Wholesale Banking recorded a small outflow visible in Financial Markets.

    淨存款增長為 13 億歐元 [由於] 零售,主要反映了波蘭、西班牙、比利時和德國的流入,部分被荷蘭的流出所抵消,這主要是由於我們的商業客戶進行的運營付款以及儲蓄的內部轉移從我們的私人銀行客戶那裡管理資產。受外部資金流動帶動,資產管理規模進一步擴大。批發銀行業務記錄了金融市場中可見的小額資金流出。

  • Turning to fees on Page 11, which showed resilience despite uncertainty continuing to affect the appetite for both investments and lending. Compared to a very high fee level in the first quarter of '22, fee income was down year-on-year. Daily banking fees continue to grow this quarter by 13%, and this reflected growth in primary customers, the increase in payment package fees and new service fees. Lending fees were lower year-on-year, mainly due to lower demand for mortgages.

    轉向第 11 頁的費用,儘管不確定性繼續影響對投資和貸款的興趣,但它顯示出彈性。與 22 年第一季度非常高的費用水平相比,費用收入同比下降。本季度每日銀行手續費繼續增長 13%,這反映了主要客戶的增長、支付套餐費用和新服務費用的增加。貸款費用同比下降,主要是由於抵押貸款需求下降。

  • For investment product fees, we continue to see the effect of lower stock markets and less trading activity, although the opening of new investment accounts continued and AUM increased. Sequentially, fees were up, reflecting growth in Financial Markets and higher fees in investment products and daily banking and retail. Lending fees in Wholesale Banking were lower after a strong fourth quarter.

    對於投資產品費用,我們繼續看到股市走低和交易活動減少的影響,儘管新投資賬戶繼續開設且資產管理規模有所增加。隨後,費用上漲,反映出金融市場的增長以及投資產品和日常銀行業務和零售的費用增加。在強勁的第四季度之後,批發銀行業務的貸款費用有所下降。

  • Then Slide 12. Excluding regulatory costs and incidental items, operating expenses were up, mainly visible in staff costs due to the full year effect of high inflation coming in via salary indexation and CLA increases. This included a 10% -- 10.5% automatic indexation in Belgium and an accrual for the CLA increases in the Netherlands. And furthermore, there was a one-off energy payment in Germany and a more front-loaded accrual of variable remuneration in Wholesale Banking.

    然後是幻燈片 12。不包括監管成本和附帶項目,運營費用上升,主要體現在員工成本中,這是由於通過工資指數化和 CLA 增加帶來的高通貨膨脹的全年影響。這包括比利時 10% - 10.5% 的自動指數化和荷蘭 CLA 增加的應計費用。此外,德國有一次性能源支付,批發銀行業務有更前期的可變薪酬應計。

  • Next to this, legal provisions and energy costs were at elevated levels in the first quarter. We also to -- continue to invest in our business, and this includes marketing campaigns as well as digitalizing customer journeys. And we do this to ensure we keep increasing the number of primary customers, thereby expanding the base for future growth. At the same time, as mentioned at the start of the presentation, investing to be more digital, to increase SAP and to make processes smarter, helps us to be more efficient and to reduce our cost to serve.

    其次,法律規定和能源成本在第一季度處於較高水平。我們還將——繼續投資於我們的業務,這包括營銷活動以及數字化客戶旅程。我們這樣做是為了確保我們不斷增加主要客戶的數量,從而擴大未來增長的基礎。與此同時,正如在演講開始時提到的那樣,投資實現更多數字化、增加 SAP 並使流程更智能,有助於我們提高效率並降低服務成本。

  • And taking all this into account and with the inflation rate declining, we expect cost growth for 2023 to be more subdued than the year-on-year development suggests. Regulatory costs were down year-on-year, mainly due to a lower SRF contribution, and a quarter-on-quarter increase reflects the full payment of several annual contributions due in the first quarter of the year.

    考慮到所有這些因素以及通貨膨脹率下降,我們預計 2023 年的成本增長將比同比發展所顯示的更為溫和。監管成本同比下降,主要是由於 SRF 貢獻減少,環比增長反映了今年第一季度到期的幾項年度貢獻的全額支付。

  • Then we move on to risk costs on the next slide, which were EUR 152 million this quarter or 9 basis points of average customer lending, and this included a EUR 67 million increase of management overlays, bringing the total of management overlay build-up at the end of Q1 to EUR 521 million. Risk costs in Wholesale Banking included a further release of EUR 118 million of Stage 2 for our Russian book, reflecting a further reduction of our Russia-related exposure, which we will continue to bring down.

    然後我們繼續討論下一張幻燈片的風險成本,本季度為 1.52 億歐元或平均客戶貸款的 9 個基點,其中包括增加 6700 萬歐元的管理重疊,使管理重疊的總數達到第一季度末達到 5.21 億歐元。批發銀行業務的風險成本包括進一步釋放我們俄羅斯賬戶第二階段的 1.18 億歐元,反映出我們將繼續降低與俄羅斯相關的風險敞口的進一步減少。

  • We saw some collective provisioning in Retail Banking, which included additions related to model adjustments and consumer lending, while we also booked an additional provision related to Swiss franc indexed mortgages in Poland. The lower Stage 2 ratio mainly reflected the decrease in Russia-related exposure, and the Stage 3 ratio remained low at 1.4%. All in all, a very benign quarter in risk costs, and we remain comfortable with the quality of our loan book.

    我們在零售銀行業務中看到了一些集體準備金,其中包括與模型調整和消費貸款相關的額外準備金,同時我們還預訂了與波蘭的瑞士法郎指數抵押貸款相關的額外準備金。較低的第二階段比率主要反映了俄羅斯相關敞口的減少,而第三階段比率保持在 1.4% 的低位。總而言之,這是一個風險成本非常良性的季度,我們對貸款簿的質量仍然感到滿意。

  • Slide 14 shows our CET1 ratio, which increased to a very strong 14.8%. CET1 capital was EUR 600 million higher, mainly due to the inclusion of 50% of resilient net profit for the quarter. Furthermore, RWA were EUR 4.1 billion lower, including 1.4 -- minus EUR 1.4 billion of FX impacts. Credit risk-weighted assets were down when excluding FX impacts, reflecting an improvement of the overall profile of our loan book and, of course, the lower Russia-related exposure. Operational risk-weighted assets were flat, while market risk-weighted assets were slightly higher.

    幻燈片 14 顯示了我們的 CET1 比率,該比率增加到非常強勁的 14.8%。 CET1 資本增加 6 億歐元,主要是由於本季度包含 50% 的彈性淨利潤。此外,RWA 減少了 41 億歐元,其中包括 1.4 - 減去 14 億歐元的外匯影響。排除外匯影響後,信用風險加權資產下降,反映出我們貸款賬簿的整體狀況有所改善,當然,與俄羅斯相關的風險敞口也有所降低。操作風險加權資產持平,而市場風險加權資產略有上升。

  • On our distribution plans, the final 2022 dividend was approved at our AGM and has been paid out on the May 5. And in line with our ambition to converge our CET1 ratio ambition, we will distribute an additional EUR 1.5 billion in the form of a share buyback, which will start on the May 12, which means tomorrow. And this additional distribution will bring our CET1 ratio to 14.4% on a pro forma basis. And I'm pleased that we take this additional step in returning capital to our shareholders and optimize our capital structure. We expect to further update the market on distribution plans at the third quarter 2023 results presentation.

    在我們的分配計劃中,2022 年最終股息在我們的年度股東大會上獲得批准,並已於 5 月 5 日支付。根據我們收斂 CET1 比率的雄心,我們將額外分配 15 億歐元,形式為股票回購將從 5 月 12 日開始,也就是明天。而這種額外的分配將使我們的 CET1 比率在備考基礎上達到 14.4%。我很高興我們採取了這一額外步驟,向股東返還資本並優化我們的資本結構。我們預計將在 2023 年第三季度的業績發布會上進一步向市場更新分配計劃。

  • To wrap up with the highlights. Overall, in a turbulent quarter, we have delivered a very strong start of 2023. Our people make a big effort every day to build a superior experience for our customers and to support the transition to a more sustainable society, which see these efforts positively reflected in primary customer numbers and volumes mobilized in transition finance. And our financial results show that accelerating NII momentum is a clear tailwind, while fee income has proven to be resilient.

    總結亮點。總體而言,在一個動蕩的季度,我們在 2023 年取得了非常強勁的開端。我們的員工每天都在努力為我們的客戶打造卓越的體驗,並支持向更可持續發展的社會過渡,這些努力得到了積極的體現在過渡融資中動員的主要客戶數量和數量。我們的財務結果表明,加速的 NII 勢頭是一個明顯的順風,而收費收入已被證明具有彈性。

  • Expenses reflected the inflationary pressure, especially on staff costs, but also on our continued investments to realize our strategy. Our capital position remains very strong, and we have announced an additional EUR 1.5 billion distribution. Going forward, I'm confident that we will continue to deliver robust financial results and successfully execute our strategy.

    費用反映了通貨膨脹壓力,尤其是員工成本,但也反映了我們為實現戰略而進行的持續投資。我們的資本狀況仍然非常強勁,我們已宣布額外分配 15 億歐元。展望未來,我相信我們將繼續提供強勁的財務業績並成功執行我們的戰略。

  • And with that, I would like to go and move on to Q&A. Operator?

    然後,我想繼續進行問答環節。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Raul Sinha from JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Raul Sinha。

  • Raul Sinha - Analyst

    Raul Sinha - Analyst

  • I guess the first one is around capital distributions. Thank you for the new slide on the withholding tax mechanics and also further clarity on the next decision date. I guess my question is around how do you decide the size, this is the right size of the buyback? Just it looks like you seem to have a good [problem] in that your capital ratio is not changing much even after a 50% dividend accrual and the share buyback. So are you expecting a rebound in RWA growth or capital consumption later in the year? I guess they're all related.

    我想第一個是關於資本分配的。感謝您提供有關預扣稅機制的新幻燈片,並進一步明確下一個決定日期。我想我的問題是你如何決定規模,這是回購的正確規模嗎?看起來你似乎有一個很好的[問題],因為即使在 50% 的股息應計和股票回購之後,你的資本比率也沒有太大變化。那麼,您是否預計今年晚些時候 RWA 增長或資本消耗會出現反彈?我猜他們都是相關的。

  • And the second question is just on costs. You had 55% cost income in Q1. And obviously, you're not reiterating this 55%, 56% that you said last quarter for the year. I was just wondering how to read this. It looks like it's a bit easier now for you to get to your 50% to 52%. And is that why you're not reiterating the 55%, 56% because you're already in the lower end?

    第二個問題只是關於成本。你在第一季度有 55% 的成本收入。顯然,你並沒有重申你在今年上個季度所說的 55%、56%。我只是想知道如何閱讀這個。看起來你現在更容易達到 50% 到 52%。這就是為什麼您不重申 55%、56% 的原因,因為您已經處於低端?

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Okay. Thank you, Raul. I will answer the question on costs, and Tanate will answer the question on the decision on how we decide the size of share buybacks or capital distributions. On cost then, I said that, during the presentation, there, you saw the quarter-on-quarter cost rise with 10.7%. That had to do with, first of all, the fact that there were salary indexations and CLA that came in this quarter, but were not there basically in that level in the first quarter last year.

    好的。謝謝你,勞爾。我會回答關於成本的問題,Tanate 會回答關於我們如何決定股票回購或資本分配規模的問題。關於成本,我說過,在演示過程中,你看到成本環比增長了 10.7%。這首先與本季度出現的薪資指數化和 CLA 有關,但在去年第一季度基本上沒有達到那個水平。

  • Two, we had a number of specific cost items that we either move forward in terms of already CLA agreements that we have for later this year and some other costs in Wholesale Banking as well as a legal provision that we took. So we took some additional costs in that sense in the first quarter. And we continue to invest in marketing and in our digital experience.

    第二,我們有一些具體的成本項目,我們要么根據今年晚些時候已經達成的 CLA 協議,要么在批發銀行業務中的一些其他成本以及我們採取的法律條款中推進。因此,我們在第一季度從這個意義上講增加了一些成本。我們繼續投資於營銷和我們的數字體驗。

  • And so we say that we basically, therefore, mean that you should not take that 10.7% and extrapolate that over the year, but I want to reiterate that point. We've given a cost guidance of 55% to 56%, but actually, we do not currently see the 55% as a floor. That should give you some guidance.

    因此,我們說我們基本上是說,你不應該拿那 10.7% 來推斷這一年,但我想重申這一點。我們給出了 55% 至 56% 的成本指導,但實際上,我們目前並未將 55% 視為底線。那應該給你一些指導。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Raul, on capital, I think we look at 3 things, the most important of which is the level of capital generation that our franchise determines. That will be the first factor in looking at capital. The second, we look at stress testing, making sure that we capture all the macroeconomic situation into our numbers in terms of determining the level of additional distribution. And then we look at any specific event risks that may occur at any point, right?

    勞爾,關於資本,我認為我們關註三件事,其中最重要的是我們的特許經營決定的資本產生水平。這將是考察資本的首要因素。第二,我們著眼於壓力測試,確保我們在確定額外分配水平方面將所有宏觀經濟狀況納入我們的數字。然後我們看看在任何時候可能發生的任何特定事件風險,對嗎?

  • And the second thing that I think we look at is really the fact that we have split our capital management in terms of providing this clarity in Q1 and that we would give, based on certain calibration of outlook, another announcement in Q3. So that's a bit how we do the decision-making around the level of capital distribution.

    我認為我們關注的第二件事實際上是我們在第一季度提供這種清晰度方面拆分了我們的資本管理,並且我們將根據對前景的某些校準,在第三季度發布另一份公告。這就是我們圍繞資本分配水平進行決策的方式。

  • Raul Sinha - Analyst

    Raul Sinha - Analyst

  • And RWA growth, are you expecting a rebound?

    RWA 的增長,你期待反彈嗎?

  • Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • At this point in time, no. The level of negative risk migration, despite the situation, remains benign.

    在這個時間點,沒有。儘管情況如此,負面風險遷移的水平仍然是良性的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jon Peace from Credit Suisse.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Jon Peace。

  • Karl Jonathan Peace - MD

    Karl Jonathan Peace - MD

  • So my first question is on NII. I'm not sure what you would consider a normal level of the sort of FX swap revenue transfer between NII and other operating income. But it feels like underlying NII was probably at least EUR 100 million above the reported number. So given lending margins are stabilizing, could we think of annualizing to sort of 16.4, 16.5 as an NII level that would be reasonable for this year?

    所以我的第一個問題是關於 NII。我不確定您認為 NII 與其他營業收入之間的外匯掉期收入轉移的正常水平是多少。但感覺潛在的 NII 可能比報告的數字至少高出 1 億歐元。因此,鑑於貸款利潤率正在穩定,我們是否可以考慮將年率化為 16.4、16.5 作為今年合理的 NII 水平?

  • And my second question, please, is just on the cost of risk. Are you seeing Stage 3 defaults still running at a very low level in Q2? So could we imagine you might again be well below the through-the-cycle rate for this quarter?

    我的第二個問題只是關於風險成本。您是否看到第 3 階段違約在第二季度仍處於非常低的水平?那麼我們是否可以想像您可能再次遠低於本季度的整個週期率?

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Good. I'll do the one on NII and then Ljiljana will take the cost of risk. Look, as you know, we have given a guidance that we will increase our revenues compared to last year of more than 10%. We -- of course, we've seen the tailwind from the interest rates. And indeed, you point out to the revenue that we booked in other income, which indeed is therefore sort of a deflation of interest income because that was moved through another P&L lines. So as a matter of fact, interest income, if you correct for that anomaly, if you will, would have been higher.

    好的。我會在 NII 上做那個,然後 Ljiljana 會承擔風險成本。看,如您所知,我們已經給出了與去年相比我們的收入將增加 10% 以上的指導。我們 - 當然,我們已經看到了利率的順風。事實上,你指出了我們在其他收入中登記的收入,因此這確實是利息收入的一種通貨緊縮,因為它是通過另一條損益表轉移的。因此,事實上,如果您願意糾正該異常情況,利息收入本來會更高。

  • And at this point, we continue to see the tailwinds. And basically, the question is, when do interest rates also move or saving rate move, but that also is very much linked to higher loan demand and which would then therefore create more competition. But that's currently not what we're seeing. So currently, we -- at this point, we continue to see the tailwind continuing.

    在這一點上,我們繼續看到順風。基本上,問題是,利率或儲蓄率何時也發生變化,但這也與更高的貸款需求密切相關,因此會產生更多的競爭。但這不是我們目前所看到的。所以目前,我們 - 在這一點上,我們繼續看到順風繼續。

  • Ljiljana Cortan - Chief Risk Officer and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Ljiljana Cortan - Chief Risk Officer and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • On the risk cost, I think Steven already said, we see very modest and benign overall risk cost for the quarter. And if we are looking specifically the structure at the S3 risk cost, we do see EUR 197 million, as we've presented. However, less than 40% of that amount relates to individual S3 risk costs.

    關於風險成本,我認為史蒂文已經說過,我們認為本季度的整體風險成本非常溫和且良性。如果我們特別關注 S3 風險成本的結構,我們確實會看到 1.97 億歐元,正如我們所介紹的那樣。但是,該金額中只有不到 40% 與單個 S3 風險成本有關。

  • Coming back to your questions, no, we do not see an increased number of individual defaults. On contrary, this quarter has been characterized by the very low number of individual defaults in Wholesale Banking, while in Retail Banking as well, we do not see a structural deterioration in our major portfolios. Also, if we are looking at delinquency rates, days overdue, but as well unlikely to pay.

    回到您的問題,不,我們沒有看到個人違約的數量增加。相反,本季度的特點是批發銀行業務的個人違約數量非常少,而在零售銀行業務中,我們也沒有看到我們的主要投資組合出現結構性惡化。此外,如果我們查看拖欠率、逾期天數,但也不太可能支付。

  • What is also important to note is why such increase in S3 is clearly, we have had a few of the model updates for some of our regular mortgage and consumer loans, IFRS models, but as well, we have had the impact of the index mortgages in Retail Banking in Polish with respect to the Swiss franc mortgages. So all in all, a very good quarter and no signs of deterioration on that part.

    同樣需要注意的是,為什麼 S3 的這種增長很明顯,我們對一些常規抵押貸款和消費貸款、IFRS 模型進行了一些模型更新,但同樣,我們也受到了指數抵押貸款的影響在波蘭的零售銀行業務中處理瑞士法郎抵押貸款。所以總而言之,這是一個非常好的季度,並且沒有任何惡化的跡象。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Johan Ekblom from UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Johan Ekblom。

  • Johan Ekblom - Equity Research Analyst of Benelux and Nordic Banks

    Johan Ekblom - Equity Research Analyst of Benelux and Nordic Banks

  • If we can just come back to the NII and these temporary effects, I guess 2 things I'd like to understand. One is the full negative amount we see in Q1, the EUR 271 million, I guess, transfer between the lines, should we expect all of that to reverse into NII at some point? And then maybe if you can just highlight the mechanics for what would cause that to transfer back to NII to start and what's the duration? So do we need to wait for ECB rates to stabilize or to fall? And how quickly would that unwind?

    如果我們能回到 NII 和這些暫時的影響,我想我想了解兩件事。一個是我們在第一季度看到的全部負數,我猜是 2.71 億歐元,在兩條線之間轉移,我們是否應該期望所有這些都在某個時候逆轉為 NII?然後也許你可以只強調機制是什麼導致它轉移回 NII 開始,持續時間是多少?那麼我們需要等待歐洲央行利率穩定還是下降?這會以多快的速度解除?

  • And maybe just to come back on the cost side. When we talk about the regulatory cost this quarter, you flagged both the lower SRF contribution and something that sounded like temporary effects in Belgium. When we think about risk costs going forward, is the kind of run rate we saw last year, Q2 to Q4, the right level to think of? And -- or will we see some of these effects in Belgium, et cetera, reverse in the coming quarters?

    也許只是為了回到成本方面。當我們談論本季度的監管成本時,您指出了較低的 SRF 貢獻和在比利時聽起來像是暫時的影響。當我們考慮未來的風險成本時,我們去年第二季度到第四季度看到的運行率是否是正確的水平?並且 - 或者我們會在未來幾個季度看到比利時等地的某些影響發生逆轉嗎?

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • I guess this is for Tanate.

    我想這是給 Tanate 的。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Thanks, Johan. Just to be clear, there are certain market opportunities which are linked to interest rate differentials between different currencies. So you can see this transference between other income and interest income to be completely linked, right? So that would mean if we unwind these positions, those would normalize. So you should be able to see that the normal run rate of replication and lending of that EUR 234 million, it should be added to our numbers for Q1. So it's related to each other.

    謝謝,約翰。需要明確的是,某些市場機會與不同貨幣之間的利率差異有關。所以你可以看到其他收入和利息收入之間的這種轉移是完全掛鉤的,對吧?因此,這意味著如果我們解除這些頭寸,這些頭寸就會正常化。所以你應該能夠看到 2.34 億歐元的複制和貸款的正常運行率,它應該被添加到我們第一季度的數字中。所以這是相互關聯的。

  • With such trades, what such opportunities will continue into Q2? It really depends on, again, market opportunities and the interest rate differential that you see in the markets today. So I would say that we would give clarity in Q2 what these effects are, but that's why we flagged it out because these opportunities had a material impact in Q1.

    有了這樣的交易,什麼樣的機會會持續到第二季度?這真的再次取決於您在當今市場上看到的市場機會和利率差異。所以我想說我們會在第二季度明確這些影響是什麼,但這就是我們將其標記出來的原因,因為這些機會對第一季度產生了重大影響。

  • Then on the regulatory expenses, yes, you do see a reduction of EUR 124 million. Something that we want to flag is, of course, that the SRF contribution will likely be finished by the end of 2023 and that the DGS contribution would be targeted to be filled by the middle of next year of '24. We have given some guidance during our Investor Day that we expect regulatory expenses in this bucket to be down by approximately EUR 400 million starting in 2025 from '21 levels, and we stick with that guidance.

    然後在監管費用方面,是的,您確實看到減少了 1.24 億歐元。當然,我們要指出的是,SRF 貢獻可能會在 2023 年底完成,而 DGS 貢獻的目標是在明年 24 世紀中期完成。我們在投資者日期間給出了一些指導,我們預計從 2025 年開始,這一類別的監管費用將從 21 世紀的水平開始減少約 4 億歐元,我們堅持這一指導。

  • Johan Ekblom - Equity Research Analyst of Benelux and Nordic Banks

    Johan Ekblom - Equity Research Analyst of Benelux and Nordic Banks

  • So just maybe to come back on the NII side, I mean the -- when we look at -- is there a normal kind of historical run rate of these trades? Or is it roughly a 0 kind of net impact over time? Just to try and gauge kind of how big the extraordinary component is.

    所以也許回到 NII 方面,我的意思是 - 當我們看 - 這些交易是否有正常的歷史運行率?或者隨著時間的推移,它的淨影響大致為 0?只是為了嘗試衡量非凡組件的大小。

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Well, I think the extraordinary component we mentioned exactly that is EUR 234 million in NII. And...

    好吧,我認為我們提到的特別部分是 NII 中的 2.34 億歐元。和...

  • Johan Ekblom - Equity Research Analyst of Benelux and Nordic Banks

    Johan Ekblom - Equity Research Analyst of Benelux and Nordic Banks

  • Okay. So 0 is the long-term average.

    好的。所以 0 是長期平均值。

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Yes. Yes, indeed. Yes.

    是的。確實是的。是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Amit Goel from Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Amit Goel。

  • Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

    Amit Goel - Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research

  • So I just wanted to come back in terms of the broader revenue kind of picture then. So the greater than 10% revenue growth, I mean, clearly, given the level of revenue growth in Q1, I guess, partially driven by this effect that you just were talking about, it still means that the actual kind of revenue trajectory in the rest of the year doesn't need to be very strong to achieve it. Just want to get your sense of where you could see revenues kind of getting to this year.

    所以我只想從更廣泛的收入情況來看回來。所以超過 10% 的收入增長,我的意思是,很明顯,考慮到第一季度的收入增長水平,我猜,部分是由你剛才談到的這種影響驅動的,這仍然意味著實際的收入軌跡今年剩下的時間不需要非常強大就可以實現它。只是想了解一下今年的收入會在哪裡。

  • And also just in terms of the NII development, again, relative to the kind of information you gave at Q3 in terms of the sensitivities based on rates at that time, just curious how you're seeing that based on current rates and your current expectations.

    同樣,就 NII 的發展而言,相對於你在第三季度提供的關於當時基於利率的敏感性的信息,只是好奇你如何看待基於當前利率和當前預期的信息.

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Okay. Thank you, Amit. I will do the question on revenues, and Tanate will give an answer on the NII trajectory, and you refer, I think, based on the model or I think the replication levels given at Q3 or the examples we gave.

    好的。謝謝你,阿米特。我會回答關於收入的問題,Tanate 會給出關於 NII 軌蹟的答案,我認為你參考的是模型,或者我認為是第三季度給出的複制水平或我們給出的例子。

  • On NII, yes, well, I mean we said -- I don't want to nitpick on words, but we said greater than 10% for 2023, which we still stand by. And as you said, I think it was based, I think, on a previous question that what we -- how we clearly benefit from a tailwind in interest rates, we continue to see that currently because part of the pressure to increase interest rates will depend on the loan demand in markets or the higher loan demand in markets, and that's currently what we do not see. So we continue to currently see benefits from these interest rate differentials, and that supports the greater than 10% revenue growth.

    關於 NII,是的,好吧,我的意思是我們說過——我不想吹毛求疵,但我們說 2023 年超過 10%,我們仍然支持。正如你所說,我認為這是基於之前的一個問題,即我們如何明顯受益於利率的順風,我們目前繼續看到這一點,因為提高利率的部分壓力將取決於市場上的貸款需求或市場上更高的貸款需求,而這是我們目前看不到的。因此,我們目前繼續看到這些利率差異帶來的好處,這支持了超過 10% 的收入增長。

  • Tanate?

    塔納特?

  • Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Amit, if you go back to look at our presentation in Q3, I would say that the shape of the interest rate curve is more beneficial to us than it was then, so a much sharper short-term rates increase compared to then. And I think in terms of the simulation that we did then, that curve was based on a simulation of roughly around 30% tracking speed for 2023. And what we see in Q1 is that the tracking speed is significantly below that number. And how it would look the rest of the year, it really depends on competitive pressure, and it depends on demand for deposits to fund our loan growth. And so far, we see that competition level has been relatively benign.

    阿米特,如果你回過頭來看看我們在第三季度的演講,我會說利率曲線的形狀比當時對我們更有利,因此與當時相比,短期利率的上漲幅度要大得多。我認為就我們當時所做的模擬而言,該曲線是基於對 2023 年大約 30% 跟踪速度的模擬。我們在第一季度看到的是跟踪速度明顯低於該數字。今年餘下時間的情況如何,這實際上取決於競爭壓力,並且取決於為我們的貸款增長提供資金的存款需求。到目前為止,我們看到競爭水平相對良性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Benoit Petrarque from Kepler Cheuvreux.

    下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Benoit Petrarque。

  • Benoit Petrarque - Head of Benelux Equity Research

    Benoit Petrarque - Head of Benelux Equity Research

  • So the first question is on the current deposit margin at 114 bps, which is well above the cross-cycle average. So the question is, yes, are you confident you can sustain this level also kind of in the medium term? Or is that fair to assume that there will be a bit of a normalization at some point towards the end of the year? And also on the deposit side, do you see any indication? I think you talked about the pass-through rate, but more on the shift out of current accounts into savings or term deposits. Do you see any customer behavior on that side?

    因此,第一個問題是當前存款保證金為 114 個基點,遠高於跨週期平均水平。所以問題是,是的,你有信心在中期也能維持這個水平嗎?或者假設在今年年底的某個時候會有一點正常化是否公平?還有在存款方面,你看到任何跡象了嗎?我想你談到了傳遞率,但更多的是關於從活期賬戶轉為儲蓄或定期存款。你看到那邊有任何客戶行為嗎?

  • And then the next question will be on the cost side. So I get the message that, obviously, we should not extrapolate Q1. But -- okay, now you have a CLA on the Dutch staff. Belgium inflation seems to slow down. I mean the clarity -- there's more clarity on the wage front. Do you think you could maybe be a bit more specific in terms of cost growth for this year on -- I mean on the full year? I think in the past, you would try to provide a bit more granular levels in terms of expected cost growth in terms of guidance. But could we get a bit more details on -- basically details on how you see cost growth for the full year, a bit more specific than what you guided, please?

    然後下一個問題將在成本方面。所以我得到的信息是,顯然,我們不應該推斷 Q1。但是-- 好吧,現在你在荷蘭工作人員中有了一個CLA。比利時通脹似乎放緩。我的意思是清晰度 - 工資方面更加清晰。您是否認為您可以更具體地說明今年的成本增長——我的意思是全年?我認為在過去,你會嘗試在指導方面的預期成本增長方面提供更精細的水平。但是我們能否獲得更多詳細信息 - 基本上是關於您如何看待全年成本增長的詳細信息,請比您的指導更具體一些?

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Great questions. So I will give both questions to Tanate then.

    很好的問題。所以我會把這兩個問題都交給 Tanate。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Benoit, when you talk about the deposit margin, I think we've given guidance before that over the long term, we see deposit margin around 100 basis points, right? And we're sitting at 114. So from that perspective, we are flying a little bit higher than what we normally do.

    Benoit,當你談到存款保證金時,我想我們之前已經給出了長期指導,我們看到存款保證金在 100 個基點左右,對嗎?我們坐在 114。所以從這個角度來看,我們飛得比平時高一點。

  • And to address -- do we see any shifts? We don't see that material shift in terms of fixed-term deposits. There are some, but not that material. What we do see as more of a trend line is the switch from current account into savings account. It is small for the time being, but it's beginning to increase compared to Q4. So that's a bit of a flavor around deposit margin. And to reiterate the point, we don't see competition for deposits being very heated in light of fairly muted demand for loan growth. Okay?

    並解決 - 我們是否看到任何變化?我們沒有看到定期存款方面的重大轉變。有一些,但不是那種材料。我們確實看到更多的趨勢線是從活期賬戶轉向儲蓄賬戶。暫時還小,但是比起Q4開始增加了。所以這有點像存款保證金。重申這一點,鑑於對貸款增長的需求相當低迷,我們認為存款競爭不會非常激烈。好的?

  • In terms of cost, maybe a bit more guidance. If you talk down from the 10.7% increase in cost, we have had in Q1 quite a sizable legal provision and also high marketing spend. Those would account for roughly around 2.5%. So the run rate in Q1 on a normalized basis is closer to around 8% cost growth. Where would we go from here? Kind of indexations on salaries are coming down, energy costs are coming down, and so that bodes well for in terms of the trend line. But if you say where we are in terms of Q1 cost projection, it's around 8%.

    在成本方面,也許更多的指導。如果你從 10.7% 的成本增長中談下來,我們在第一季度有相當可觀的法律規定和高營銷支出。這些大約佔 2.5% 左右。因此,在標準化基礎上,第一季度的運行率接近 8% 左右的成本增長。我們從這裡去哪裡?工資指數正在下降,能源成本正在下降,因此就趨勢線而言,這是個好兆頭。但如果你說我們在第一季度的成本預測方面所處的位置,它大約是 8%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Benjamin Goy。

  • Benjamin Goy - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Goy - Research Analyst

  • Two questions, please. So first, on new customer growth, it seems like you were a bit more on the front foot. Just wondering a bit more color on the markets and whether attractive savings rates are the other main driver of that.

    請教兩個問題。因此,首先,在新客戶增長方面,您似乎處於領先地位。只是想知道市場上的更多顏色以及有吸引力的儲蓄率是否是另一個主要驅動因素。

  • And then secondly, you mentioned so far subdued loan growth. Historically, you mentioned some pockets like Asia or U.S. that were better. Wondering whether there is some differentiation or whether you see essentially rather subdued demand essentially across all your lending book.

    其次,你提到到目前為止貸款增長低迷。從歷史上看,你提到了一些更好的地區,比如亞洲或美國。想知道是否存在一些差異,或者您是否在所有借貸簿中看到基本上相當低迷的需求。

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Yes. Thank you, Ben. I think that on customer growth, I mean that was a little bit over 100,000 this quarter. A significant part came from Germany, as we've already said earlier, but I think also our CEO in Germany said we want to grow our customer base there to 10 million in the next 3 years. So we invest well in the digital experience as well as in our marketing, and that is paying off by seeing the growth there.

    是的。謝謝你,本。我認為關於客戶增長,我的意思是本季度略高於 100,000。正如我們之前所說,很大一部分來自德國,但我認為我們在德國的首席執行官也說過,我們希望在未來 3 年內將那裡的客戶群增加到 1000 萬。因此,我們在數字體驗和營銷方面進行了很好的投資,並且通過看到那裡的增長而得到回報。

  • But also in other markets, we continue to see primary customer growth. And in the end, what we want to do, and that's why we call them primary customers, is not only to make them customers. And as you may know, we currently have this action currently in the German markets that we started in April, but in the end, we want to convert those new customers in primary customers because we do more with these customers, and these customers are more profitable. So that's how we target them.

    而且在其他市場,我們繼續看到主要客戶的增長。最後,我們想要做的,這就是我們稱他們為主要客戶的原因,不僅僅是讓他們成為客戶。你可能知道,我們目前在德國市場採取了這項行動,我們從 4 月份開始,但最終,我們希望將這些新客戶轉化為主要客戶,因為我們與這些客戶做的更多,而這些客戶更多有利可圖。這就是我們針對他們的方式。

  • In terms of loan growth, whether there's any differentiation in the different markets, not really. We see -- I think that what you do see is mortgage levels in the markets, and I talked about the markets in general are down 30% to 50%. But on the other hand, the stock stays stable, so therefore, you see our book being relatively stable. At some point, that mortgage market will return. And Wholesale Banking more on, let's say, term lending and syndicated loans with a little bit less in Working Capital and Trade & Commodity Finance, that's based on lower commodity prices. And that has influenced the book, but there's not a particular regional element in there.

    就貸款增長而言,不同市場是否存在差異,實際上並沒有。我們看到——我認為你看到的是市場的抵押貸款水平,我談到市場總體上下降了 30% 到 50%。但另一方面,股票保持穩定,因此,您會看到我們的賬簿相對穩定。在某個時候,抵押貸款市場將會回歸。批發銀行業務更多的是定期貸款和銀團貸款,營運資本和貿易與商品融資略少,這是基於較低的商品價格。這影響了這本書,但其中沒有特定的區域元素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Flora Bocahut from Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Flora Bocahut。

  • Flora A. Benhakoun Bocahut - Equity Analyst

    Flora A. Benhakoun Bocahut - Equity Analyst

  • The first question is on revenues. I'd like to come back to this guidance for this year, where you expect revenue growth of over 10%. I know it's only Q1, so the beginning of this year. I know that guidance doesn't have a maximum, so technically it stands. But if we annualize the Q1 run rate, you're actually going for about 20% growth this year versus last year. So the question is really, why do you keep that guidance unchanged? Or another way to ask it, is there anything, when we look into the Q1 results today, that you think will not be sustainable or could turn more negative before the end of this year?

    第一個問題是關於收入。我想回到今年的指導意見,您預計今年的收入增長將超過 10%。我知道這只是第一季度,所以是今年年初。我知道指導沒有最大值,所以從技術上講它是有效的。但如果我們將第一季度的運行率年化,那麼今年實際上比去年增長了 20% 左右。所以問題真的是,為什麼你保持指南不變?或者換一種方式問,當我們今天查看第一季度的結果時,您認為有什麼是不可持續的或可能在今年年底前變得更加負面的嗎?

  • And then the second question, still on revenues. The revenues that you booked in other income this quarter, but you say are actually NII-related, could you clarify that these come actually on top of the replicating portfolio contribution guidance that you had made?

    然後是第二個問題,仍然是關於收入。你本季度在其他收入中登記的收入,但你說實際上與 NII 相關,你能否澄清這些實際上是在你所做的複制投資組合貢獻指導之上的?

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • I think the answer on the second question is yes. And the answer on the first question is, yes, look, we cannot predict the future. We can only report on what we currently see. And for us to continue to benefit in a similar way that we have benefited from increasing interest rates so far means that the level of tracking should remain relatively limited to what we see in the past.

    我認為第二個問題的答案是肯定的。第一個問題的答案是,是的,看,我們無法預測未來。我們只能報告我們目前看到的情況。對於我們來說,要繼續以與迄今為止我們從利率上升中受益的方式類似的方式受益,這意味著跟踪水平應該仍然相對局限於我們過去看到的水平。

  • And Tanate already said that based on what we presented in the third quarter last year, we gave a few examples how tracking could develop itself. It is lagging. And as a result of it, we have been benefiting more. And an element of that tracking would increase would be that there would be higher lending demand, which would spur more need for savings, for example, or deposits. And that we currently do not see. So at this point in time, we see continued benefit in the same level, and we need to see how that will further develop.

    Tanate 已經說過,根據我們在去年第三季度展示的內容,我們給出了幾個跟踪如何自行發展的例子。它是滯後的。因此,我們受益更多。這種追踪的一個因素將是增加貸款需求,這將刺激更多的儲蓄需求,例如,或存款。而我們目前看不到。所以在這個時間點,我們看到同一水平的持續利益,我們需要看看這將如何進一步發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Kiri Vijayarajah from HSBC.

    下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Kiri Vijayarajah。

  • Kirishanthan Vijayarajah - Analyst

    Kirishanthan Vijayarajah - Analyst

  • A couple of questions from my side. So firstly, coming back to core lending group slide, which, if I look at it annualized, is running at less than 1%. And given last year, you added over 0.5 million new primary customers, and I think it was another 0.5 million the year before that as well. So my question is, how come all of that kind of primary customer growth isn't translating into better lending volumes, particularly when I look at the retail and challengers growth segments on that slide of your core lending growth?

    我這邊的幾個問題。所以首先,回到核心貸款集團的幻燈片,如果我按年化來看,它的增長率不到 1%。去年,你增加了超過 50 萬新的主要客戶,我認為前一年也是 50 萬。所以我的問題是,為什麼所有這些主要客戶的增長都沒有轉化為更好的貸款量,特別是當我在核心貸款增長的幻燈片上查看零售和挑戰者增長部分時?

  • And then linked to that, with the deposit margin recovering quite nicely, I was wondering, is that feeding through more meaningfully into rising customer acquisition costs as you add these extra primary customers, particularly in those markets where maybe some of your competitors might be a bit more deposit-driven in terms of their growth strategies that that's pushing up your customer acquisition costs across your retail markets? Those are my 2 questions, please.

    然後與此相關聯,隨著存款保證金恢復得很好,我想知道,當你添加這些額外的主要客戶時,是否會更有意義地影響不斷上升的客戶獲取成本,特別是在那些可能你的一些競爭對手可能是競爭對手的市場中就他們的增長戰略而言,更多的存款驅動會推高整個零售市場的客戶獲取成本嗎?請回答我的兩個問題。

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Okay. I'll give these questions to Tanate.

    好的。我會把這些問題交給 Tanate。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • I think maybe addressing your second question, Kiri, if you look at the past in negative interest rate, acquisition of customers using deposit was a negative proposition from a P&L perspective. Given the curve, given the current absolute rates from the ECB, customer acquisition using deposits has turned into a positive proposition. And that's why you see promotions that we do in a number of markets, whether Poland, Germany or Spain. And that's what is driving our primary customers.

    我想也許可以解決你的第二個問題,Kiri,如果你以負利率回顧過去,從損益的角度來看,使用存款獲取客戶是一個消極的主張。鑑於曲線,鑑於歐洲央行目前的絕對利率,使用存款獲取客戶已變成一個積極的提議。這就是為什麼您會看到我們在許多市場(無論是波蘭、德國還是西班牙)進行促銷的原因。這就是推動我們的主要客戶的原因。

  • And in terms of lending, we continue to acquire lending customers. But it's just demand, given where the rates are, is more subdued, right? So that's basically it. But we have accelerated somewhat additional marketing spend during the course of Q1 to increase our drive of primary customers. So that is the case.

    在貸款方面,我們繼續獲得貸款客戶。但考慮到利率,這只是需求更加低迷,對吧?所以基本上就是這樣。但我們在第一季度期間加快了一些額外的營銷支出,以增加我們對主要客戶的驅動力。原來如此。

  • Kirishanthan Vijayarajah - Analyst

    Kirishanthan Vijayarajah - Analyst

  • Okay. So that ramp-up in marketing flatting for 1Q, are you anticipating more of a pickup then on the lending -- retail lending side maybe for the back end of the year?

    好的。因此,第一季度營銷扁平化的增加,你是否預計貸款方面會出現更多回升 - 零售貸款方面可能會在今年年底出現?

  • Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • It's demand-driven. I think the market, I think, during the course of '23, we just need to adjust to these new rates environment. And when that adjustment takes place, then it will be reflected first in GDP, consumer confidence and feed through into bank lending.

    它是需求驅動的。我認為市場,我認為,在 23 年期間,我們只需要適應這些新的利率環境。當這種調整髮生時,它將首先反映在 GDP、消費者信心上,並影響到銀行貸款。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Andreas Scheriau from Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的 Andreas Scheriau。

  • Andreas Scheriau - Associate

    Andreas Scheriau - Associate

  • So I'd like to come back to deposits, please. What do you see on your most rate-sensitive customers doing? Are they moving towards variable savings accounts, time deposits or money market funds or other investment solutions? And if you could just speak a bit about any difference that you see across regions, I think that would be helpful.

    所以我想回到存款,拜託。您看到對利率最敏感的客戶在做什麼?他們是否轉向可變儲蓄賬戶、定期存款或貨幣市場基金或其他投資解決方案?如果你能談談你在不同地區看到的任何差異,我認為這會有所幫助。

  • And then the second question is on the size of the Eurozone retail replicating portfolio. Has that -- has the size of that changed materially since the last time you gave an update? And then following on from that, are you expecting to adjust the size of that hedge going forward? And how you're thinking about this in general?

    然後第二個問題是關於歐元區零售複製組合的規模。自上次更新以來,它的大小是否發生了重大變化?然後,您是否期望調整未來對沖的規模?您總體上是如何考慮這個問題的?

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Okay. I'll give the second question to Tanate, and I'll do the first question. Yes, you asked -- so first of all, our deposits have increased again, this time with EUR 1.3 billion. And you talked about money market funds, but that's a U.S. phenomenon. We don't have that here in Europe. And people can't use -- individuals can choose not to buy money market funds. So there is some shift from current accounts to savings, as Tanate already said, but that's relatively limited.

    好的。我會把第二個問題交給 Tanate,我會做第一個問題。是的,你問了——首先,我們的存款再次增加,這次是 13 億歐元。你談到了貨幣市場基金,但這是美國的現象。我們在歐洲沒有。人們不能使用——個人可以選擇不購買貨幣市場基金。因此,正如 Tanate 已經說過的那樣,從活期賬戶到儲蓄有一些轉變,但這相對有限。

  • And we do see some shifts to asset under management. So that is what we see. So we see our assets under management books increase, not yet the number of trades, but we do see the number of clients and accounts increase. That is the main shift that's currently taking place, but not so much in any other funds that you talked about.

    我們確實看到了資產管理的一些轉變。這就是我們所看到的。因此,我們看到管理賬簿上的資產增加了,但交易數量還沒有增加,但我們確實看到客戶和賬戶數量增加了。這是目前正在發生的主要轉變,但在您談到的任何其他基金中都沒有那麼多。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • And then there's a -- for the second question, from what we disclosed before, what the size of our Eurozone deposit replication, it's roughly about the same. Maybe the level of deposits is somewhat higher than perhaps in Q4, Q3.

    然後是 - 對於第二個問題,根據我們之前披露的內容,我們的歐元區存款複製規模大致相同。也許存款水平比第四季度、第三季度高一些。

  • And then in terms of interest rate, whether the replication is -- or adjusting the hedges, we dynamically change our hedges all the time to reflect prevailing rates, prevailing customer behavior. So that's a dynamic process that we do constantly.

    然後就利率而言,無論是複制還是調整對沖,我們始終動態地改變我們的對沖以反映現行利率和現行客戶行為。所以這是一個我們不斷進行的動態過程。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now take the next question from Anke Reingen from RBC.

    我們現在將接受來自 RBC 的 Anke Reingen 的下一個問題。

  • Anke Reingen - European Banks Analyst

    Anke Reingen - European Banks Analyst

  • Just 2, please. On the fee growth, you're slightly below your target range. And clearly, Q1 last year was a high level. But do you think like in order to move higher up in the range, you need more supportive capital market and wholesale leveling to pick up again? Or is there like -- or could there also be a headwind from -- on -- especially on payment packages given the higher rate environment?

    請只有 2 個。在費用增長方面,您略低於目標範圍。很明顯,去年第一季度是一個高水平。但是你認為為了在區間內走高,你是否需要更多的支持性資本市場和批發水平來再次回升?或者是否有 - 或者是否還會有逆風 - 尤其是在較高利率環境下的支付套餐上?

  • And then secondly, just on this Treasury impact in Q1, I mean it's like an absolute number, so it's quite sizable. I'm just -- I mean, is it -- I mean, if you can just provide some comfort in terms of the size of the positions that the Treasury is taking? I mean I guess it's also because of the magnitude of the rate changes, it's quite meaningful. But if you -- it just seems quite large in terms of impact, if you can provide some comfort here.

    其次,就第一季度對財政部的影響而言,我的意思是它就像一個絕對數字,所以相當大。我只是——我的意思是,是嗎——我的意思是,如果你能就財政部持有的頭寸規模提供一些安慰?我的意思是我猜這也是因為利率變化的幅度,這是非常有意義的。但是如果你——如果你能在這裡提供一些安慰的話,它的影響似乎相當大。

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Yes. Thank you, Anke. I will answer the first question and Tanate the second. A couple of remarks on fees. If you -- in general, we want to grow our primary customers because if we have more primary customers, these customers we know will do more with us and also do more in commission products.

    是的。謝謝你,安克。我會回答第一個問題,Tanate 會回答第二個問題。關於費用的幾點說明。如果你——總的來說,我們想增加我們的主要客戶,因為如果我們有更多的主要客戶,我們認識的這些客戶會和我們一起做更多的事情,也會在佣金產品上做更多的事情。

  • Then we are active in a number of markets where there are, let's say, local incumbents who may feel more pressure to increase their prices on commission products and then we can follow. And there are also markets in which we are more a challenger, where we have started only in a limited way to levy fees for services that we provide. So there is room there.

    然後我們活躍在一些市場,比方說,當地的現任者可能會感到更大的壓力來提高佣金產品的價格,然後我們可以效仿。在某些市場中,我們更像是一個挑戰者,我們只是以有限的方式開始對我們提供的服務收取費用。所以那裡有空間。

  • And then we are extending our services. So if you look at our number of investment accounts, we only started a couple of years ago with apps on investment accounts, and we're seeing good growth in a number of countries, and I've mentioned Germany a number of times. Yes, currently more subdued given the uncertainties in the market, but the number of accounts has again increased. And once the confidence in the market returns, we can see and we will continue then to see an uplift in investment income.

    然後我們正在擴展我們的服務。所以如果你看看我們的投資賬戶數量,我們幾年前才開始使用投資賬戶應用程序,我們在許多國家看到了良好的增長,我多次提到德國。是的,鑑於市場的不確定性,目前更加低迷,但賬戶數量再次增加。一旦對市場的信心恢復,我們就可以看到並且我們將繼續看到投資收益的增加。

  • In payment packages, we gradually have increased payment packages in a number of the markets, but we've also seen that the number of transactions have increased as well. And lending in Wholesale Banking, we've seen a very good quarter in the fourth quarter because of a number of larger syndicated loans that is a bit lower now. But once the market is rebounding, we'll expect that also to pick up.

    在支付套餐方面,我們在一些市場逐漸增加了支付套餐,但我們也看到交易數量也有所增加。在批發銀行業務的貸款方面,我們在第四季度看到了一個非常好的季度,因為一些規模較大的銀團貸款現在有所降低。但一旦市場反彈,我們預計也會回升。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Tanate Phutrakul - CFO and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • And Anke, on the trading opportunities, I just want to reiterate the point, we operate well within our market risk tolerance, right? So there's more why this thing is highlighted at the moment is the accounting asymmetry that you see in Q1 that instead of matching these positions in the net interest line, just given the fact of this trading strategy, it happens to be split between other income and interest rates. And as Steven mentioned, it's really unique to this trading strategy, and it doesn't affect our overall NII replication of our savings book. And if these trading strategies were unwound, then it will both disappear.

    而安科,關於交易機會,我只想重申一點,我們在市場風險承受能力範圍內運作良好,對吧?因此,目前突出顯示的更多原因是您在第一季度看到的會計不對稱性,而不是在淨利益線中匹配這些頭寸,只是考慮到這種交易策略的事實,它恰好在其他收入和利率。正如史蒂文所提到的,它確實是這種交易策略的獨特之處,它不會影響我們儲蓄簿的整體 NII 複製。如果這些交易策略被取消,那麼它們都會消失。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Gulnara Saitkulova from Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Gulnara Saitkulova。

  • Gulnara Saitkulova - Research Associate

    Gulnara Saitkulova - Research Associate

  • This is Gulnara from Morgan Stanley. Just a follow-up on the liability margins. ING has indicated that this will remain the main tailwind and the key income driver for this year. Yes, the Netherlands [screen] is one of the fastest markets for the depository pricing across Europe. Can you share what you are seeing on the ground in terms of repricing pressures from competition in the Netherlands as well as other markets such as Belgium and Germany? And how close do you think we are to the peak NII?

    這是來自摩根士丹利的 Gulnara。只是對責任保證金的跟進。 ING 表示,這仍將是今年的主要推動因素和主要收入驅動因素。是的,荷蘭 [screen] 是整個歐洲存託定價最快的市場之一。您能否分享您在荷蘭以及比利時和德國等其他市場的競爭重新定價壓力方面的實際情況?您認為我們離 NII 峰值還有多遠?

  • And the second question on overlays. So you have made a top-up in the overlays this quarter. And how should we think about the overlays going forward? Do you think we can expect further top-ups to come in the next quarters? Or are you comfortable at these levels of the overlay buffer?

    關於覆蓋的第二個問題。因此,您在本季度的疊加層中進行了充值。我們應該如何考慮未來的覆蓋?您認為我們可以期待在接下來的幾個季度中進一步充值嗎?或者您對覆蓋緩衝區的這些級別感到滿意嗎?

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Okay. Ljiljana takes the question on risk cost and management overlays and I on liability margin. Like I said, so the speed of the tracking rate is, amongst others, linked to the speed of growth in loan demand. And currently, we see an environment whereby loan demand is relatively subdued. You see that in mortgages where I said that depending on the market, and that goes for all the large markets in which we're active, the current mortgage production is between 30% and 50% lower than we typically see. But yes, the stock is there, so therefore that you see some stabilization.

    好的。 Ljiljana 回答了關於風險成本和管理重疊的問題,而我回答了關於責任保證金的問題。就像我說的那樣,跟踪率的速度與貸款需求的增長速度等因素有關。目前,我們看到貸款需求相對低迷的環境。你會看到,在我所說的抵押貸款中,根據市場情況,這適用於我們活躍的所有大型市場,目前的抵押貸款產量比我們通常看到的低 30% 到 50%。但是,是的,股票在那裡,因此你看到一些穩定。

  • And also in Wholesale Banking, the loan demand is relatively subdued. So it will depend on the pickup of loan demand and economic growth. That's -- therefore, there's more demand in loans, and it could also then also have an impact on deposits required. So that's one element of this. So it depends on pickup of loan demand, which we currently don't see.

    在批發銀行業務中,貸款需求也相對低迷。因此,這將取決於貸款需求的回升和經濟增長。那就是——因此,貸款需求增加,然後它也可能對所需的存款產生影響。所以這是其中的一個要素。所以這取決於貸款需求的回升,這是我們目前看不到的。

  • The second element I want to say now, like I highlighted before, in a number of the markets, we are a challenger, and that means that we sometimes do actions like you have seen in Germany, we're more on the front foot. And in some markets, we're more incumbent with a more staled market environment. So there, we are more of a follower that you see in markets like, for example, Belgium.

    我現在想說的第二個要素,就像我之前強調的那樣,在許多市場中,我們是一個挑戰者,這意味著我們有時會像你在德國看到的那樣採取行動,我們更處於領先地位。在某些市場中,我們更需要應對更加陳舊的市場環境。因此,我們更像是您在比利時等市場看到的追隨者。

  • Ljiljana Cortan - Chief Risk Officer and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Ljiljana Cortan - Chief Risk Officer and Member of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • On the overlays, yes, the total amount of the overlay in the first quarter is a bit above EUR 500 million, precisely EUR 521 million. And yes, it has topped up. However, the top-up come primarily from the model update, so IFRS model update, that are to be implemented in the second quarter.

    在重疊方面,是的,第一季度的重疊總額略高於 5 億歐元,恰好是 5.21 億歐元。是的,它已經滿了。但是,充值主要來自模型更新,因此 IFRS 模型更新將在第二季度實施。

  • When it comes to the real risk overlays, I would say, we see quite constant or even a bit decreasing situation, having in mind that the macroeconomic forecast are more positive at this point of time that have been once we have set this overlay. So for the time being, we are quite confident about the size of these overlays. And as you see also for some of the quarters already, we are at a quite stable level.

    當談到真正的風險疊加時,我想說,我們看到的情況相當穩定,甚至有點下降,因為一旦我們設定了這個疊加,宏觀經濟預測在這個時間點就會更加積極。因此,就目前而言,我們對這些疊加層的大小非常有信心。正如您已經在某些季度看到的那樣,我們處於相當穩定的水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Farquhar Murray from Autonomous.

    下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Farquhar Murray。

  • Farquhar Charles Murray - Senior Analyst of Insurance & Banks

    Farquhar Charles Murray - Senior Analyst of Insurance & Banks

  • Two questions from me. Just coming back to the approach taken in sizing the EUR 1.5 billion capital return announced today, it feels like a simple repeat of the EUR 1.5 billion we saw at 3Q '22, and that's clearly consistent with equal steps. But if we look at the pro forma CET1 ratio of 14.4%, we're not really seeing the downward trajectory we need to get to the 12.5% target. Can I just ask, is that a reflection just of the lagged nature of the conversation with ECB and maybe a blowout quarter? And can we expect a resumption of the downward trajectory in the pro forma ratio looking perhaps at the 3Q update?

    我有兩個問題。回到今天宣布的 15 億歐元資本回報規模的方法,感覺就像我們在 2022 年第三季度看到的 15 億歐元的簡單重複,這顯然與同等步驟一致。但如果我們看一下 14.4% 的備考 CET1 比率,我們並沒有真正看到達到 12.5% 目標所需的下降軌跡。我能問一下,這是否反映了與歐洲央行對話的滯後性,也許是井噴季度?我們是否可以期待備考比率的下降軌跡可能會在第三季度的更新中恢復?

  • And then secondly, you actually mentioned the recalibration as part of this exercise. Is that a recalibration of the forward scenarios? And what are the kind of key changes you've made there?

    其次,您實際上提到了重新校準作為本練習的一部分。這是對未來情景的重新校準嗎?你在那裡做了哪些關鍵的改變?

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • So let's put it this way, we have said we want to move to around 12.5% by the end of 2025, roughly equal steps. We have repeated that statement. And when we apply for certain levels to -- for share buybacks or capital distributions, we do that a couple of months in advance. And the circumstances change and maybe a bit more positive, a bit more negative, but we can't every second change then these levels. These are then -- and we want to do that in a gradual way.

    所以讓我們這樣說吧,我們已經說過我們希望到 2025 年底達到 12.5% 左右,大致相等的步驟。我們重複了這一聲明。當我們申請某些級別的股票回購或資本分配時,我們會提前幾個月進行。情況會發生變化,可能會更積極一些,也可能更消極一些,但我們不能每一秒都改變這些水平。這些就是 - 我們希望以漸進的方式做到這一點。

  • But of course, if, let's say, our profitability would turn out to be higher and, therefore, our capital would turn out to be higher, we would calibrate also the capital plan, and that could then also mean that we would calibrate those capital distributions. But that depends on where we are at that point in time with the targets to go back to around 12.5% in 2025 in roughly equal steps.

    但是,當然,比方說,如果我們的盈利能力會更高,因此我們的資本會更高,我們也會校準資本計劃,這也可能意味著我們會校準那些資本分佈。但這取決於我們在那個時間點的目標是在 2025 年以大致相等的步驟回到 12.5% 左右。

  • With that -- sorry, go ahead, Farquhar.

    抱歉,請繼續,Farquhar。

  • Farquhar Charles Murray - Senior Analyst of Insurance & Banks

    Farquhar Charles Murray - Senior Analyst of Insurance & Banks

  • And then with regards to the recalibration, I've seen just the macro being slightly better probably than it was 3 months ago?

    然後關於重新校準,我看到宏可能比 3 個月前稍微好一些?

  • Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

    Steven J. A. van Rijswijk - CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board & Management Board Banking

  • Well, so I said we then need to -- depending on how things go and if the outlook is better or if it is worse, on profitability and capital, we then would indeed need to calibrate. That's how we would do it.

    好吧,所以我說我們然後需要 - 根據事情的進展情況以及前景是更好還是更糟,盈利能力和資本,我們確實需要進行校準。我們就是這樣做的。

  • Thank you very much for your time. Thank you very much for listening to us. Thank you very much for your good questions. I will leave -- we will leave you for now, but I'm sure you can also be in touch with our Investor Relations team. And I'm looking forward to speaking to you again in 3 months' time. Thank you. Operator?

    非常感謝您的寶貴時間。非常感謝您聆聽我們的講話。非常感謝你的好問題。我會離開——我們暫時離開你,但我相信你也可以與我們的投資者關係團隊聯繫。我期待在 3 個月後再次與您交談。謝謝。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,女士們,先生們。您現在可以斷開連接。