Ichor Holdings Ltd (ICHR) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ichor's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Ichor 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder: This call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）提醒：此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Claire McAdams, investor relations for Ichor.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，Ichor 投資者關係部門的 Claire McAdams。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and thank you for joining today's Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call.

謝謝你，接線生。下午好，感謝您參加今天的 2023 年第三季電話會議。

As you read our earnings press release and as you listen to this conference call, please recognize that both contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These risks and uncertainties include those spelled out in our earnings press release, those described in our annual report on Form 10-K for fiscal 2022 and those described in subsequent filings with the SEC. You should consider all forward-looking statements in light of those and other risks and uncertainties. Additionally, we will be providing certain non-GAAP financial measures during this conference call. Our earnings press release and the financial supplement posted to our IR website, each provide a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP financial measures.

當您閱讀我們的收益新聞稿和收聽本次電話會議時，請注意，兩者均包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，其中許多風險和不確定性超出了我們的控制範圍，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括我們的收益新聞稿中闡述的風險和不確定性、2022 財年10-K 表格年度報告中所述的風險和不確定性以及隨後向SEC 提交的文件中所述的風險和不確定性。您應該根據這些以及其他風險和不確定性考慮所有前瞻性陳述。此外，我們將在本次電話會議期間提供某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益新聞稿和發佈在我們的 IR 網站上的財務補充資料均提供了這些非 GAAP 財務指標與其最具可比性 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

On the call with me today are Jeff Andreson, our CEO; and Greg Swyt, our CFO. Jeff will begin with an update on our business, and then Greg will provide additional details about our results and guidance. After their prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. I'll now turn over the call to Jeff Andreson.

今天與我通話的是我們的執行長 Jeff Andreson；和我們的財務長 Greg Swyt。傑夫將首先介紹我們業務的最新情況，然後格雷格將提供有關我們的結果和指導的更多詳細資訊。在他們準備好發言後，我們將開通提問專線。我現在將把電話轉給傑夫·安德烈森。

Jeff?

傑夫？

Thank you, Claire. And welcome to our Q3 Earnings Call.

謝謝你，克萊爾。歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。

Our third quarter revenues came in at the upper end of our expectations at $197 million, up 6% from Q2 due primarily to a rebound in our core gas delivery business, reflecting that the trough quarter for semiconductor process equipment is behind us. Earnings of $0.07 per share were aligned with our expectations, as we were able to offset some headwinds in gross margin during the quarter with lower OpEx and higher net tax benefit, which Greg will discuss in his remarks.

我們第三季的營收達到了我們預期的上限，為 1.97 億美元，比第二季成長 6%，這主要是由於我們的核心氣體輸送業務的反彈，反映出半導體製程設備的低谷季度已經過去。每股收益 0.07 美元與我們的預期一致，因為我們能夠透過較低的營運支出和較高的淨稅收優惠來抵消本季度毛利率的一些不利因素，格雷格將在他的演講中討論這一點。

After 2 quarters in a row of revenues at the upper end of our expectations, at this time, our Q4 revenue forecast is fairly similar to Q3 levels. And therefore, our revenue outlook for the full year remains consistent with the expectations we've shared throughout the year. Last quarter, we described the factors that are causing our expected revenue decline in 2023 to be a bit steeper than the overall market versus our relative customer and end market exposure which is more weighted towards the areas seen in the bulk of the softness this year, especially process tools for the NAND memory segment.

在連續兩個季度收入處於我們預期的上限之後，目前我們對第四季度的收入預測與第三季度的水平相當相似。因此，我們對全年的收入前景與我們全年的預期保持一致。上個季度，我們描述了導致 2023 年預期收入下降幅度比整體市場更大的因素，而我們的相對客戶和終端市場敞口更偏向於今年大部分疲軟的領域，尤其是NAND 內存領域的工藝工具。

As the year has progressed, it has become increasingly clear that the strong growth witnessed in etch and deposition over the last few years has been largely fueled by the capacity expansions underway at the 5 leading manufacturers of 3D NAND. And in 2023, this segment has witnessed spending declines of as much as 75%. We estimate that memory WFE has declined to represent just about 1/4 of our total revenues in 2023. Furthermore, the components side of our business has witnessed deeper and more prolonged cuts as our customers work to reduce their inventory levels. The bright spots for us this year are definitely within the growing market segments of WFE, such as EUV lithography; and new customer design wins, such as the -- for epi systems for silicon carbide. We continue to expect to add a third 10% customer for fiscal '23.

隨著時間的推移，越來越明顯的是，過去幾年蝕刻和沈積領域的強勁增長很大程度上是由 5 家領先 3D NAND 製造商正在進行的產能擴張所推動的。到 2023 年，該細分市場的支出下降高達 75%。我們估計，到2023 年，記憶體WFE 已下降到僅占我們總收入的1/4 左右。此外，隨著我們的客戶努力降低庫存水平，我們的組件業務也出現了更深、更長時間的削減。今年我們的亮點肯定是WFE不斷成長的細分市場，例如EUV光刻機；以及贏得新客戶設計，例如碳化矽外延系統。我們繼續預期 23 財年將增加第三個 10% 客戶。

As we look ahead to a relatively stable demand environment in our served markets for the next few quarters, we are also just beginning to see the emergence of new technology drivers and process inflections that require an increasing use of applications that are more highly dependent on the accuracy and repeatability of the gas delivery system. These include etch and deposition techniques such as atomic layer deposition, selective etch and low-k and nitride films.

當我們展望未來幾季我們所服務的市場的需求環境相對穩定時，我們也剛開始看到新技術驅動因素和流程變化的出現，這些變化需要越來越多地使用高度依賴市場的應用程序。氣體輸送系統的準確性和可重複性。這些包括蝕刻和沈積技術，例如原子層沉積、選擇性蝕刻以及低k和氮化物薄膜。

In lithography, we see opportunities to expand our gas delivery role in next-generation platforms, including [high NA]. As EUV adoption continues to proliferate across multiple device types, our process tool customers are also witnessing the need for more etch and deposition steps to help create smooth patterns and reduce line width roughness. Additionally, expectations for WFE growth [ahead] reflect a significant expansion in the industry's deployment of advanced packaging techniques, which have their own particular process challenges. These require better film stress management, improved defectivity, enhanced uniformity and increased material selectivity, all of which are enabled by more precise control of gas and fluid delivery.

在光刻領域，我們看到了在下一代平台中擴大氣體輸送作用的機會，包括[高數值孔徑]。隨著 EUV 在多種設備類型中的採用不斷激增，我們的製程工具客戶也見證了需要更多的蝕刻和沈積步驟，以幫助創建平滑的圖案並降低線寬粗糙度。此外，對 WFE 成長的預期反映了業界先進封裝技術部署的顯著擴展，這些技術有其特殊的製程挑戰。這些需要更好的薄膜應力管理、改善缺陷率、增強均勻性和增加材料選擇性，所有這些都可以透過更精確地控制氣體和流體輸送來實現。

Outside of semiconductors, specifically for our IMG business, we are also driving cross-selling opportunities at our historical gas panel customers as well as opportunities to offer Ichor's various fluid delivery products and capabilities to IMG's customer base in medical, aerospace and defense. As these new technologies and drivers evolve and proliferate, we see opportunities for Ichor to expand our revenue potential and continue to add breadth and diversification to our customer base. All of these factors build a strong story for Ichor's revenue growth as the industry recovery accelerates.

除了半導體之外，特別是對於我們的IMG 業務，我們還在推動對我們的歷史氣體面板客戶的交叉銷售機會，以及向IMG 的醫療、航空航天和國防客戶群提供Ichor 的各種流體輸送產品和功能的機會。隨著這些新技術和驅動因素的發展和擴散，我們看到了 Ichor 擴大收入潛力並繼續擴大客戶群廣度和多樣化的機會。隨著行業復甦加速，所有這些因素都為 Ichor 的收入成長奠定了堅實的基礎。

Furthermore, our business model and financial profile tend to generate significant operating leverage as revenues grow. Current expectations are for the Q4 industry spending levels to stay fairly consistent through the first half of 2024, followed by the beginning of a revenue ramp in the second half in advance of an expected strong recovery year in 2025. We expect to be able to deliver significant earnings growth as revenue volumes increase, which is why we continue to make critical investments in our business in support of our future growth.

此外，隨著收入的成長，我們的商業模式和財務狀況往往會產生巨大的營運槓桿。目前的預期是，第四季產業支出水準將在 2024 年上半年保持相當穩定，隨後下半年收入開始成長，預計 2025 年將出現強勁復甦。我們預計能夠實現隨著收入量的增加，盈利將顯著成長，這就是為什麼我們繼續對我們的業務進行關鍵投資以支持我們未來的成長。

We are maintaining our focus on driving share gains for our proprietary products and making investments in new offerings that support our customers' long-term technology road maps. These periods of lower demand provide both Ichor and our customers the ability to work on new qualifications. We continue to make very good progress in our key focus areas. These include our next-generation gas panel qualifications of our proprietary machine components and our silicon carbide gas panel.

我們將繼續專注於推動我們專有產品的份額成長，並投資於支援客戶長期技術路線圖的新產品。這些需求較低的時期為 Ichor 和我們的客戶提供了獲得新資格的能力。我們繼續在關鍵重點領域取得良好進展。其中包括我們的專有機器組件和碳化矽氣體面板的下一代氣體面板資格。

I am very pleased with our progress in customer evaluations of our new gas panel. As a reminder: The new gas panel contains about 75% proprietary Ichor content compared to just 10% today, which could drive significant expansion of our gross margin profile. We have completed the qualification of our gas panel for 3 process applications and, in the next 2 quarters, expect to ship gas panels that will support 5 additional systems for end user customer tool evaluations. This is a major milestone for the program. Our best estimate of when production shipments will begin is late 2024, which is when we would expect the end customer evaluations to be successfully completed. We continue to work with 3 additional customers that are evaluating our technology.

我對客戶對新瓦斯面板的評估所取得的進展感到非常滿意。提醒一下：新的氣體面板含有約 75% 的專有靈液含量，而目前僅為 10%，這可能會推動我們毛利率的大幅成長。我們已經完成了 3 個製程應用的氣體面板認證，預計在接下來的 2 個季度中發貨的氣體面板將支援 5 個用於最終用戶客戶工具評估的附加系統。這是該計劃的一個重要里程碑。我們對何時開始生產出貨的最佳估計是 2024 年末，屆時我們預計最終客戶評估將成功完成。我們繼續與另外 3 家正在評估我們技術的客戶合作。

In our Ichor proprietary machine components, we continue to win new qualifications across our customer base. In Q3, we completed several new component qualifications; and expect to begin initial shipments later this quarter. We also expect to integrate incremental proprietary components into our existing gas panels, but this will take some time as our customers continue to work through the existing inventory on hand. Similar to our next-generation gas panel, all of these qualifications and new customer wins will be margin accretive.

在我們的 Ichor 專有機器組件中，我們不斷在客戶群中贏得新的資格。第三季度，我們完成了多項新組件的認證；預計將於本季稍後開始首批出貨。我們還希望將增量專有組件整合到我們現有的燃氣面板中，但這需要一些時間，因為我們的客戶將繼續處理現有的庫存。與我們的下一代燃氣面板類似，所有這些資格和新客戶的獲勝都將增加利潤。

And lastly, we continue to ship production-volume gas panels for the silicon carbide market and have now been qualified on the next-generation systems as well. We estimate the silicon carbide SAM for gas delivery to be around $60 million in 2023 but a decent tailwind for our revenue growth as the overall industry rebounds in the latter half of '24 and 2025.

最後，我們繼續為碳化矽市場提供量產的氣體面板，並且現在也已在下一代系統上獲得資格。我們估計2023 年用於天然氣輸送的碳化矽SAM 的銷售額約為6000 萬美元，但隨著整個行業在24 年下半年和2025 年反彈，這對我們的收入成長來說是一個不錯的推動力。

In summary, I'll remind everyone here today that our revenues tend to recover more sharply when industry spending rebounds. And our business model enables earnings growth well in excess of revenue growth. In the meantime, we are managing through the lower demand environment by focusing on delivering solid financial results as the business recovers, improving our operational capabilities, qualifying our internally developed products and developing new products that align with our customer's need for both technology and costs.

總之，我今天要提醒大家，當產業支出反彈時，我們的收入往往會恢復得更快。我們的商業模式使獲利成長遠超過收入成長。同時，我們正在應對需求較低的環境，重點是隨著業務的復甦提供穩健的財務業績，提高我們的營運能力，鑑定我們內部開發的產品，並開發符合客戶對技術和成本需求的新產品。

With that, I'll turn it over to Greg to recap our Q3 results and provide further details around our Q4 outlook.

接下來，我將把它交給 Greg 來回顧我們第三季度的業績，並提供有關我們第四季度前景的更多細節。

Greg?

格雷格？

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

To begin, I would like to emphasize that the P&L metrics discussed today are non-GAAP measures. These measures exclude the impact of share-based compensation expense, amortization of acquired intangible assets, nonrecurring charges and discrete tax items and adjustments. There is a useful financial supplement available on our investors section of our website that summarizes our GAAP and non-GAAP financial results, as well as summary balance sheet and cash flow information for the last several quarters.

首先，我想強調今天討論的損益指標是非公認會計準則指標。這些措施不包括股權激勵費用、收購的無形資產攤銷、非經常性費用、離散稅項和調整的影響。我們網站的投資者部分提供了有用的財務補充，其中總結了我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務業績，以及過去幾個季度的資產負債表和現金流資訊摘要。

In the third quarter, our revenues were $197 million, at the upper end of guidance and increased [6%] from the second quarter. Our Q3 gross margin was 13.1%, which was lower than our expectations primarily due to the additional inventory provisions recorded during the quarter as well as a less-favorable product mix compared to our forecast.

第三季度，我們的營收為 1.97 億美元，處於指導上限，較第二季度成長 [6%]。我們第三季的毛利率為 13.1%，低於我們的預期，主要是由於該季度記錄的額外庫存撥備以及與我們的預測相比不太有利的產品組合。

With close control of spending, Q3 operating expenses of $21.3 million declined from Q2 levels. The resulting operating margin for Q3 was 2.2%. Our net interest expense was $5 million. And our non-GAAP net income tax benefit for the quarter exceeded our forecast at $2.9 million.

由於嚴格控制支出，第三季營運支出較第二季下降了 2,130 萬美元。第三季的營業利益率為 2.2%。我們的淨利息支出為 500 萬美元。我們本季的非 GAAP 淨所得稅收益超出了我們的預測，達到 290 萬美元。

Consequently, our net earnings for the quarter came in at the midpoint of Q3 guidance at $0.07 per share.

因此，我們本季的淨利潤為每股 0.07 美元，處於第三季指引的中點。

Now turning to the balance sheet. At the end of the quarter, our cash and equivalents totaled $76 million, a $9 million decrease from Q2 primarily due to our net debt reduction of $12 million. We generated $4 million in cash flow from operations. And after deducting $2.4 million of capital expenditures, our free cash flow for the quarter was $1.6 million. This was below our expectations for free cash flow given the back-end-loaded revenue profile of the quarter which drove an $8 million increase in accounts receivable.

現在轉向資產負債表。截至本季末，我們的現金及等價物總計 7,600 萬美元，比第二季減少 900 萬美元，主要是由於我們的淨債務減少了 1,200 萬美元。我們透過營運產生了 400 萬美元的現金流。扣除 240 萬美元的資本支出後，我們本季的自由現金流為 160 萬美元。考慮到本季後端負載的收入狀況導致應收帳款增加 800 萬美元，這低於我們對自由現金流的預期。

Inventory remained flat at $267 million. Days sales outstanding increased by 1 day to 48, and inventory turnover stood at 2.6.

庫存維持在 2.67 億美元不變。應收帳款天數增加 1 天至 48 天，庫存週轉率為 2.6。

We are continuing to reduce our net debt levels given the higher interest rate environment. And our net debt coverage ratio currently stands at 2.6x.

鑑於較高的利率環境，我們將繼續降低淨債務水準。我們的淨債務覆蓋率目前為 2.6 倍。

Now let's discuss our guidance for the fourth quarter. We anticipate revenues in the range of $190 million to $205 million. We expect that our gross margins will improve to approximately 14%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Our fourth quarter gross margin expectations reflect somewhat more favorable product mix as well as some improvement in the level of inventory reserves forecasted.

現在讓我們討論我們對第四季的指導。我們預計營收在 1.9 億至 2.05 億美元之間。我們預計毛利率將提高至 14% 左右，上下浮動 50 個基點。我們對第四季度毛利率的預期反映了更有利的產品組合以及預測的庫存儲備水準的一些改善。

As we enter 2024, we expect to be solidly back on track with our 25% flow-through at similar revenue levels when compared to our second quarter gross margin performance. We plan to carefully manage operating expenses to $21.4 million level, give or take $200,000, as we continue to prioritize our R&D investments for new product programs and maintain the essential infrastructure that will enable us to ramp revenues in response to more significant upticks in customer demand in the quarters ahead.

進入 2024 年，與第二季的毛利率表現相比，我們預計將在類似的收入水平下以 25% 的流量穩步回歸正軌。我們計劃謹慎地將營運費用管理在2,140 萬美元的水平，上下浮動20 萬美元，同時我們繼續優先考慮新產品項目的研發投資，並維護必要的基礎設施，使我們能夠增加收入，以應對客戶需求的更顯著增長在未來幾季。

Net interest expense is expected to be approximately $5 million. The non-GAAP income tax benefit we expect at the midpoint of Q4 guidance is approximately $1 million. For fiscal 2023, we expect to recognize a net tax benefit of approximately $7 million, which is higher than our previous forecast. Looking ahead to 2024, we anticipate incurring a nominal non-GAAP tax expense each quarter. And for modeling purposes, you should assume a 5% to 10% non-GAAP effective tax rate.

淨利息支出預計約 500 萬美元。我們預計第四季度指導中點的非公認會計原則所得稅收益約為 100 萬美元。對於 2023 財年，我們預計將實現約 700 萬美元的淨稅收優惠，高於我們先前的預測。展望 2024 年，我們預計每季都會產生名義非 GAAP 稅收費用。出於建模目的，您應該假設 5% 到 10% 的非 GAAP 有效稅率。

Operator, we are ready to take questions. Please open the line.

接線員，我們準備好回答問題。請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Charles Shi with Needham.

（操作員說明） 您的第一個問題來自 Charles Shi 和 Needham。

I want to start the first question in terms of the first half '24. I heard you talk about the first half '24. Maybe that's an industry comment. You're expecting a consistent level. I mean consistent with the Q4 level, for the first half '24. I wonder. What do you see at Ichor business going to '24? And I think it's tied to this question that how much inventory do you think your customers are still holding, at this point, of your products; and whether they have depleted, or soon to be depleted, which actually could make a slightly higher, steadier growth for Ichor business going to '24 -- well, first half '24.

我想從 24 年上半年的情況開始第一個問題。我聽到你談論 24 年上半年的情況。也許這是業界的評論。您期待一個穩定的水平。我的意思是與 24 年上半年的第四季水準一致。我想知道。您對 Ichor 業務走向 '24 有何看法？我認為與這個問題相關的是，您認為您的客戶此時仍持有多少庫存？以及它們是否已經耗盡，或即將耗盡，這實際上可能會使 Ichor 業務在 24 年——好吧，24 年上半年實現稍微更高、更穩定的成長。

All right, Charles. Thanks for the questions, and if I miss any piece of it, just remind me. We -- I think what we see looking into 2024 are very similar levels of revenue kind of bouncing along the bottom here. I think, in outlook for WFE, I would say in general I think that kind of mirrors what most people are expecting, I think, in the market, with an inflection beginning in the second half. In general, it's going to have to inflect sometimes near the fourth quarter, unless the 2025 outlook changes materially, but I think most people are looking at a very strong 2025, similar. Now your question around inventory, I -- how much? We don't know. We don't have that visibility, but we can tell from the order patterns that we're still at, I'll call it, muted levels versus where we would have expected to be through this quarter and probably will last and be a bit of a headwind as we go even into next year. And the reason we can stay relatively flat, I think, over the next couple of quarters is we are bringing in some incremental share gains to offset some of that. Did I miss any other pieces?

好吧，查爾斯。感謝您提出問題，如果我錯過了任何內容，請提醒我。我認為，展望 2024 年，我們看到的收入水準非常相似，都在底部反彈。我認為，就 WFE 的前景而言，總的來說，我認為這反映了大多數人對市場的預期，並在下半年開始出現轉折點。總的來說，除非 2025 年的前景發生重大變化，否則在第四季度附近有時會出現拐點，但我認為大多數人都認為 2025 年會非常強勁，類似。現在你的問題是關於庫存的，我——多少？我們不知道。我們沒有這種可見性，但我們可以從訂單模式看出，與我們預期的本季情況相比，我們仍然處於（我稱之為）低迷水平，並且可能會持續一段時間。當我們進入明年時，會遇到逆風。我認為，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們能夠保持相對穩定的原因是我們正在引入一些增量份額收益來抵消其中的一部分。我還漏掉其他作品了嗎？

No. That was a very good answer. So maybe the next question: I want to ask a little bit more about the gross margin performance over the last quarter because you did highlight, right, that, if I heard you correctly, there are 2 items there. One is the -- well, maybe the product mix was not as favorable, but you actually pointed out -- pointed to the rebound of gas panel business, somewhat a rebound, but the other thing is about inventory reserve. I just want to ask. What was that inventory reserve that you took in Q3? Why was it a little bit higher? It sounds like it's a little bit higher than you previously expected. Why did you take that action? And what's behind that?

不，這是一個非常好的答案。所以也許下一個問題是：我想多問一些有關上個季度毛利率表現的問題，因為您確實強調了，對吧，如果我沒聽錯的話，那裡有兩個項目。一是——嗯，也許產品組合不那麼有利，但你實際上指出——指出燃氣面板業務的反彈，有點反彈，但另一件事是關於庫存儲備。我只是想問一下。您在第三季的庫存儲備是多少？為什麼稍微高一點呢？聽起來比你之前的預期高一點。為什麼採取這個行動？這背後是什麼？

I'm -- can I start with the product mix? And I'll let Greg answer the reserve level. With the product mix, I would say, as we entered the quarter, in our machining side of the business, we expected some relatively decent growth, not super, but it just stayed relatively the same and actually declined slightly. So this is what leads us to believe that we still have inventory in the channel that has to get burned off before we start to see an inflection; and that's primarily where you saw the mix. We offset that, obviously, with the gas panel integration business, which comes in at lower margins versus our machining margins. And then I'll let Greg talk a little bit about inventory reserves. And it's a complex subject (inaudible).

我可以從產品組合開始嗎？我會讓格雷格回答儲備水準。就產品組合而言，我想說，當我們進入本季度時，在業務的加工方面，我們預計會有一些相對不錯的增長，而不是超級增長，但它只是保持相對相同，實際上略有下降。因此，這使我們相信，在我們開始看到拐點之前，渠道中仍然有庫存，必須將其消耗掉；這就是你看到混合的主要地方。顯然，我們透過燃氣面板整合業務來抵消這一影響，該業務的利潤率低於我們的加工利潤率。然後我會讓格雷格談談庫存儲備。這是一個複雜的主題（聽不清楚）。

Okay, thanks, Jeff. Charles, regarding the inventory reserves in Q3, we saw some headwinds, in our various business units, of inventory using our normal E&O inventory reserve process. And as we do our look-backs, we had some inventory roll off from prior quarters that we had to take some additional reserves for. That was predominantly the driver for Q3. And we do expect to see some benefit in Q4 as we work down some of that inventory that we had reserved, but we do expect it to return back to some level of normality as we exit the year for '23...

好的，謝謝，傑夫。 Charles，關於第三季的庫存儲備，我們在各個業務部門使用正常的 E&O 庫存儲備流程看到了一些庫存阻力。當我們進行回顧時，我們發現前幾季的庫存有所減少，因此我們必須採取一些額外的儲備。這主要是第三季的驅動力。我們確實預計在第四季度會看到一些好處，因為我們會減少我們保留的一些庫存，但我們確實預計當我們結束 23 年時，它會恢復到某種正常水平...

Maybe a quick follow-up, Greg. I know that's a complex subject, but how should we think about what's normality? Is there anything quantitatively you can point out [still]?

也許需要快速跟進，格雷格。我知道這是一個複雜的主題，但我們該如何思考什麼是正常現象？您可以[仍然]從數量上指出什麼嗎？

No. I think, Charles, that's a bit more complex. We have a very complex model that we look at and use various things to look at demand and historical activity, so there isn't a normal number that we could point to, but as we manage that inventory and we start turning it, then we should see the reserves come back to what we would expect to be normal, not some predetermined amount but what we expect it to be from a ongoing run rate standpoint. I'm not sure I answered that, but it is a complex model and there isn't really a normal number that we could point you to.

不，我認為，查爾斯，這有點複雜。我們有一個非常複雜的模型，我們查看並使用各種東西來查看需求和歷史活動，因此我們沒有可以指向的正常數字，但當我們管理庫存並開始轉動它時，我們應該會看到儲備金回到我們預期的正常水平，不是某個預先決定的金額，而是我們從持續運行率的角度預期的水平。我不確定我是否回答了這個問題，但這是一個複雜的模型，我們實際上沒有一個正常的數字可以向您指出。

Next question, Craig Ellis with B. Riley Securities.

下一個問題是 B. Riley Securities 的 Craig Ellis。

I'll just follow up on a little bit of Charles's line of inquiry. Can you help us understand the relative magnitude of the mix and the inventory reserve items that impacted the calendar third quarter's gross margin? And somewhat relatedly, am I interpreting your comments correctly, Greg, in inferring that the reserving issue should exhaust itself by the end of the fourth quarter? Could some of that carry into calendar '24?

我將跟進查爾斯的一些詢問。您能否幫助我們了解影響第三季毛利率的組合和庫存儲備項目的相對程度？與此相關的是，格雷格，我是否正確解釋了你的評論，推斷保留問題應該在第四季末耗盡？其中一些可以延續到24年日曆嗎？

So the excursion we saw from what we had guided to. About half of the miss was tied to the inventory reserve that we took. And then the rest of it is really product mix and some other -- some minor changes in the factory, but half of the miss that we guided to was driven by the reserves. And as I said earlier, we don't expect it to be at that same level of reserve in Q4, so we do expect it to pop back as we manage through that bubble of the inventory.

所以我們從我們所引導的地方看到了這次旅行。大約一半的失誤與我們的庫存儲備有關。剩下的部分實際上是產品組合和其他一些——工廠的一些細微變化，但我們引導的失誤有一半是由儲備造成的。正如我之前所說，我們預計第四季度的儲備水準不會相同，因此我們確實預計，隨著我們管理庫存泡沫，它會回升。

Yes. And I think -- Craig, it's Jeff. Just to follow on. I think that's why we offered some color on, even in a similar quarter in Q1, that we think we would be back to that flow-through of 25%. So in Q1, it should more normalize. I should say it's never -- it always has some flexibility -- or variability in it, but I think we can get back. And if you do the flow-through based on Q2, you'll see it would be kind of in the low 15s [again].

是的。我想——克雷格，是傑夫。只是為了繼續。我認為這就是為什麼我們提供了一些顏色，即使在第一季的相似季度，我們認為我們將回到 25% 的流量。所以在第一季度，它應該會更加正常化。我應該說它永遠不會——它總是有一定的靈活性——或者可變性，但我認為我們可以回來。如果您根據 Q2 進行流量計算，您會發現它[再次]會在 15 秒左右。

Got it. That's really helpful. And I'd missed that comment on 1Q, so thanks for clarifying that, Jeff. And then Jeff, I wanted to follow up on a comment that you made in the early part of the Q&A when you talked about some share gain potential that you had coming into the model that would be beneficial in calendar '24. Can you talk a little bit more about that? And when do we expect it to start? How material could it be through the year, et cetera?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。我錯過了第一季的評論，所以感謝傑夫的澄清。然後傑夫，我想跟進您在問答的早期部分發表的評論，當時您談到了您進入模型的一些股票收益潛力，這將在 24 日曆中受益。能多談談嗎？我們預計它什麼時候開始？這一年的時間有多大，等等？

Yes. If you look into 2024, it's -- like I'd say it's difficult to size, but it's -- like I'll size it in the tens of millions kind of in a full run rate. There's a couple of things that I can point to. Obviously we've been working to add machining content. We're getting it qualified, but between our inventories and other in the channel, we have to work through that before they go in. But I think you'll start to see some of that margin accretion, which is why we talked about the 25% flow-through going into Q1. We get a full year of the silicon carbide gas delivery systems that we're delivering to our initial customer in that space that are going to actually get the full year, where in fact we had about half a year, so it's going to more than double. And you'll start to see that [run rate] kind of increase a little bit. And those are some areas where we're seeing some new wins in weldments but we're still working off some of the inventory [in machining].

是的。如果你展望 2024 年，你會發現，就像我說的那樣，很難確定規模，但我會在全運行率下將其規模確定為數千萬。有幾件事我可以指出。顯然我們一直在努力加入加工內容。我們正在使其合格，但在我們的庫存和渠道中的其他庫存之間，我們必須在它們進入之前解決這個問題。但我認為你會開始看到一些利潤增加，這就是我們談論的原因25%的流量進入第一季。我們將向該領域的初始客戶提供一整年的碳化矽氣體輸送系統，這些系統實際上將獲得一整年的服務，實際上我們只有大約半年的時間，所以這將超過雙倍的。你會開始看到[運行率]有點增加。在這些領域，我們在銲件方面看到了一些新的勝利，但我們仍在處理[加工方面]的一些庫存。

Next question, Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

下一個問題是由 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen 提出的。

First one, Jeff, I just wanted to ask you a question. I understand the NAND weakness. It's kind of well understood. So that's kind of a negative thing. If you look at your customers: All the semi cap OEM customers are shipping a lot to China. And obviously they can charge a higher ASP even though it's mature nodes. Do you get any benefit from that? Or is it neutral? Or is it even negative for Ichor? Because it's mature nodes, so the gas boxes are smaller. It's a lower-ASP product you are selling. We are just trying to get your thoughts on how China impacts you because it's clearly a huge benefit for your customers, but it doesn't seem like it's impacting you as much.

首先，傑夫，我只是想問你一個問題。我了解 NAND 的弱點。這有點好理解。所以這是一件消極的事情。如果你看看你的客戶：所有半帽 OEM 客戶都將大量產品運送到中國。顯然，即使它是成熟的節點，他們也可以收取更高的ASP。你從中得到什麼好處嗎？還是中性的？或者它對靈液甚至是負面的？因為是成熟節點，所以氣箱較小。您銷售的是一款售價較低的產品。我們只是想了解您對中國如何影響您的想法，因為這顯然為您的客戶帶來了巨大的利益，但它似乎對您的影響並不大。

Well, I think, if it's a new tool that ships into China at 300 millimeter, we benefit just like any other tool that goes into China. Where we don't benefit is we don't sell anything directly to any China OEMs, process tool manufacturers like [Enara] or anything like that. We don't participate in that level. I would say our participation at the 200-millimeter level is a little bit lower than it is at 300 millimeter. Some of that is still done in house. And so I don't know that it's a huge headwind for us, but it's obviously not a [we benefit] as though our customers do. Anything that they ship into China at 300 millimeter, we'll get a piece of if that's market share that we're a part of.

嗯，我認為，如果這是一種以 300 毫米的速度進入中國的新工具，我們就會像進入中國的任何其他工具一樣受益。我們沒有受益的是我們不會直接向任何中國原始設備製造商、加工工具製造商（例如 [Enara] 或類似的公司）銷售任何產品。我們不參與那個級別。我想說的是，我們在200毫米的參與度比300毫米級別低一些。其中一些工作仍在內部完成。所以我不知道這對我們來說是一個巨大的阻力，但這顯然不像我們的客戶那樣[我們受益]。他們以 300 毫米的尺寸運往中國的任何產品，如果我們參與其中的話，我們都會分得一杯羹。

Got it, got it. And then I have 2 other quick questions. Number one, you kind of mentioned your revenues hanging around these levels in the first half of next year. Do you really need to see a NAND inflection for these revenues to grow? Are you banking on anything? Yes.

明白了，明白了。然後我還有另外兩個問題。第一，您提到明年上半年的收入將保持在這些水平附近。您真的需要看到 NAND 變化才能使這些收入成長嗎？你有什麼希望嗎？是的。

Well, that is a great question, Krish. A NAND inflection would be fantastic. I mean obviously I think, as you know our customer base well, NAND for us is a reflection of what our customers are seeing. And NAND is down as much as 75%, so any inflection there is tremendously helpful and would drive kind of the memory spend. I would say, this year, we're going to be 75% foundry, logic, so obviously it would definitely help. I would say we don't see that inflection in the next 2 quarters, in the first half of 2024. We don't see any indication of that yet.

嗯，這是一個很好的問題，克里什。 NAND 的變化將會是非常棒的。我的意思顯然是，我認為，正如您非常了解我們的客戶群一樣，NAND 對我們來說反映了我們客戶所看到的內容。 NAND 下降了 75%，因此任何變化都會非常有幫助，並且會增加記憶體支出。我想說，今年我們將有 75% 的代工廠，邏輯上，所以顯然這肯定會有所幫助。我想說的是，在接下來的兩個季度，即 2024 年上半年，我們不會看到這種轉折點。我們還沒有看到任何跡象。

Got it. And then a final, just a clarification. On the silicon carbide side, you still have only one customer. Or do you have more than one?

知道了。然後是最後的澄清。在碳化矽方面，您仍然只有一個客戶。或者你有不只一個嗎？

We have one customer in that space. Like we haven't said who it is, but we're on multiple platforms there now. And as they continue to iterate, we're the -- call it, the tool of record there. There's a -- we talk about the market being $60 million. I would say that this one customer has got a reasonably good share of that market, but there are still 3 or 4 other players that can address this market over time. We see this market as kind of doubling in the next 4 or 5 years, so it's an area of focus for us. And this is -- what I would say is these are deposition tools, so...

我們在該領域有一位客戶。就像我們還沒有說是誰，但我們現在在多個平台上。當他們繼續迭代時，我們就是──稱之為記錄工具。我們談論的市場價值為 6000 萬美元。我想說，這個客戶已經在該市場中獲得了相當不錯的份額，但隨著時間的推移，仍然有 3 或 4 個其他參與者可以解決這個市場問題。我們預計這個市場在未來四到五年內會翻一番，因此這是我們關注的一個領域。我想說的是，這些都是沉積工具，所以......

Our next question comes from Brian Chin with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

A few questions. Maybe, Jeff, first question. With EUV litho delivery sort of flattening out, plus or minus, next year, have you already seen an adjustment from your customer? And are there any inventory headwinds to consider moving forward?

幾個問題。也許，傑夫，第一個問題。隨著 EUV 光刻交付在明年趨於平緩，無論是正值還是負值，您是否已經看到客戶做出了調整？未來是否有任何庫存阻力需要考慮？

I don't think there's any inventory headwinds with our EUV customer. I think that, what I've said in the past, they're very transparent. We don't really see a deviation from what they're telling the external world. The only thing I would remind you of is we deliver about 5 months before they can deliver a tool. So anything in the first half of the year, we've already addressed in our "back half of the year" shipments for them, so -- and they're remaining relatively flat. I think, as you know, that customer is expected to cross 10% of our revenue this year.

我認為我們的 EUV 客戶不存在任何庫存阻力。我認為，我過去所說的，他們是非常透明的。我們並沒有真正看到他們告訴外部世界的內容有什麼偏差。我唯一要提醒您的是，我們在他們交付工具之前大約 5 個月就交付了。因此，今年上半年的任何事情，我們都已經在「下半年」的出貨量中解決了，因此，它們保持相對平穩。我認為，正如您所知，該客戶今年預計將占我們收入的 10%。

Okay, okay. And you gave a bit of an update in terms of the evaluations and qualifications of some of the new gas panels with significant content, Ichor content. And it sounds like -- can you -- I didn't catch all of the discussion, but it seems like there's additional evals going out in the field and so maybe more activity than you might have imagined and sort of first revenue kind of steered towards the latter stages of next year. Is that a right way to characterize it? Can you also maybe, if you didn't already, go over sort of like the number of customers, maybe the number of platforms again that you're involved with?

好吧好吧。您對一些具有重要內容（靈液內容）的新氣體面板的評估和資格進行了一些更新。聽起來——你能——我沒有聽清所有的討論，但似乎該領域正在進行額外的評估，所以可能比你想像的更多的活動，並且是第一筆收入的引導到明年的後期階段。這是描述它的正確方式嗎？如果您還沒有的話，您是否也可以檢查您所涉及的客戶數量或平台數量？

Yes. So the first 3 qualifications are -- again they're all deposition applications, 3 different applications. We haven't said how many customers and specifics we're working on, but it's 3 or 4 that are pretty active right now, so this initial wave of evaluation units, most of those, customer evaluations. So we've delivered gas panels that might go in their application lab, get tested, get qualified. And then they go out with their new products and platforms with our gas panels on them. And then the next 5 months or so, we're going to have about 5 full tools go out that we would expect to be in customer evaluation, so at the device manufacturers. Those take 6 to 9 months. And so that's how the first wave would be kind of the back half of '24. And we're working with several other customers along the way, and -- but they have not yet finished their internal [qualifications, so] it's hard to set a time line. But [I mean it's] probably qualifications complete at some point for some of those in '24. And then '25 is the -- would be the production tool rollout.

是的。所以前 3 個資格是——同樣，它們都是沉積申請，3 個不同的申請。我們還沒有透露我們正在處理多少客戶和具體情況，但目前有 3 或 4 個非常活躍，所以第一波評估單元，其中大部分是客戶評估。因此，我們已經交付了氣體面板，可以進入他們的應用實驗室，進行測試並獲得資格。然後他們推出了帶有我們氣體面板的新產品和平台。然後在接下來的 5 個月左右的時間裡，我們將推出大約 5 個完整的工具，我們預計這些工具將用於客戶評估，對於設備製造商也是如此。這些需要 6 到 9 個月的時間。這就是 24 年後半段的第一波。一路上我們正在與其他幾個客戶合作，但是他們還沒有完成內部[資格認證，所以]很難設定時間表。但[我的意思是]對於 24 年中的某些人來說，資格可能會在某個時候完成。然後 25 年將推出生產工具。

Got it. Maybe one last one, maybe for Greg and kind of tying some of this together but thinking about some of the -- those, hopefully, successful qualifications, thinking about some of the content that you're designing into existing gas panels. And I understand kind of [it will stage in] some of that revenue at parts of last year, but maybe '24, into 2025, does it start to make sense that you could have gross margin flow-through somewhat -- somewhere north of 25% when you think about sort of the accretion some of those revenue opportunities provide?

知道了。也許是最後一個，也許是對格雷格來說，把其中一些聯繫在一起，但考慮一些——希望這些成功的資格，考慮你正在設計到現有氣體面板中的一些內容。我理解，去年的部分收入 [它將逐步增加]，但也許到 24 年，到 2025 年，你可能會有一定的毛利率流動——在北部的某個地方，這是否開始有意義？25% ，當你考慮其中一些收入機會所提供的增值時？

Brian, yes, in regards to that, as those gas boxes and those new content start to move their way through the revenue stream, we do expect that we should benefit in our margin and that those specific margin profiles should see a better than 25% flow-through. And as that takes more percentage of the revenue, we should see a better benefit on the overall margin going into '25.

布萊恩，是的，就這一點而言，隨著這些氣箱和新內容開始透過收入流發展，我們確實預計我們的利潤率應該會受益，並且這些特定的利潤率應該會高於 25%流通。由於這佔收入的比例更大，我們應該會看到 25 年整體利潤率會出現更好的效益。

Yes. I mean, Brian -- and I think we've talked about this in the past. We need this level of content to get us into the 20% kind of corporate-wide gross margins. And you don't need like $100 million of this given the fact that the margins are much more like our machining margins with the shift from kind of 90% procured to 75% internally manufactured, so it's part of our road map to get into 20% gross margin in our business model.

是的。我的意思是，布萊恩——我想我們過去已經討論過這個問題。我們需要這種水準的內容來讓我們的公司毛利率達到 20%。而且你不需要 1 億美元，因為利潤率更像是我們的機械加工利潤率，從 90% 採購轉變為 75% 內部製造，所以這是我們進入 20% 路線圖的一部分我們的業務模式中的毛利率百分比。

There are no further questions. I would like to turn the floor over to Jeff Andreson for closing comments.

沒有其他問題了。我想請傑夫·安德烈森 (Jeff Andreson) 發表結束評論。

Thank you for joining us on our call this quarter.

感謝您參加本季的電話會議。

I'd like to thank our employees, suppliers and customers for their ongoing dedication and support as we continue to navigate this highly dynamic business environment.

我要感謝我們的員工、供應商和客戶在我們繼續駕馭這個高度動態的商業環境時所給予的持續奉獻和支持。

Our upcoming investor activities include the New York city summit on January -- or sorry, December 12; and the Needham Growth Conference in January. We also look forward to our Q4 Conference Call scheduled for early February.

我們即將舉行的投資者活動包括 1 月（抱歉，12 月 12 日）紐約市峰會；以及一月份的李約瑟增長會議。我們也期待定於二月初舉行的第四季電話會議。

Operator, that concludes our call.

接線員，我們的通話結束了。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。並感謝您的參與。