International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2002 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the IBM first quarter earnings release.

女士們，先生們，下午好，歡迎來到 IBM 第一季度財報發布。

At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode, and the floor will be open for your questions and comments following the presentation.

此時，所有參與者都已進入只聽模式，演講結束後將開放供您提問和評論。

It is now my pleasure to hand the floor over to your host, Mr.

現在，我很高興將發言權交給您的主人，先生。

. Sir, the floor is yours.

.先生，地板是你的。

Thank you,

謝謝，

. Good afternoon.

.下午好。

This is

這是

, Vice President of Investor Relations for IBM. Thank you all for joining us.

，IBM 投資者關係副總裁。感謝大家加入我們。

Let me quickly give you a few pieces of information.

讓我快速給你一些信息。

A this point, the opening page of the presentation should have automatically loaded, and you should be on chart one, the title page.

此時，演示文稿的起始頁應該已經自動加載，並且您應該在圖表一，即標題頁上。

After the last chart in the presentation, we will provide you an index to go back to specific slides during the Q&A. Or you can just to the index at any time by clicking on the index link located on the navigation bar on the left side of your screen.

在演示文稿中的最後一張圖表之後，我們將為您提供一個索引，以便您在問答期間返回特定幻燈片。或者，您可以隨時通過單擊位於屏幕左側導航欄上的索引鏈接來訪問索引。

For printing slides, there are two alternatives. As in the previous quarters, there is a link on the index pages, so you can download the entire set of slides for printing.

對於打印幻燈片，有兩種選擇。與前幾個季度一樣，索引頁面上有一個鏈接，因此您可以下載整套幻燈片進行打印。

Or, there is a link on the navigation bar, so you can download the charts at any time.

或者，導航欄上有一個鏈接，您可以隨時下載圖表。

In about 45 minutes, you will also be able to link to the prepared remarks off that same navigation bar.

在大約 45 分鐘內，您還可以從同一個導航欄鏈接到準備好的評論。

And finally, a replay of this Webcast will be available on this Web site by this time tomorrow.

最後，該網絡廣播的重播將在明天這個時候在這個網站上提供。

Now, please click on the next button and move to chart two.

現在，請單擊下一個按鈕並移至圖表二。

Certain comments made by John Joyce or myself during this call may be characterized as forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those statements involve a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，約翰·喬伊斯或我本人在本次電話會議中發表的某些評論可能具有前瞻性。這些聲明涉及許多可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素。

Additional information concerning these factors is contained in the company's filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC, from the IBM Web site, or from us in investor relations.

有關這些因素的其他信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。副本可從 SEC、IBM 網站或投資者關係部門獲得。

Now please click again on the next button for chart three.

現在請再次點擊圖表三的下一個按鈕。

And at this time, let me turn the call over to John Joyce, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

在這個時候，讓我把電話轉給 IBM 的高級副總裁兼首席財務官 John Joyce。

Thanks,

謝謝，

. Good afternoon.

.下午好。

Before I get into the details on our first quarter results, I'd like to briefly mention two other items.

在詳細介紹我們第一季度的業績之前，我想簡要提一下另外兩個項目。

First, as I'm sure you've seen by now, we announced plans for a strategic relationship with Hitachi to accelerate the delivery of advanced storage products and technologies.

首先，我相信你現在已經看到了，我們宣布了與日立建立戰略關係的計劃，以加速先進存儲產品和技術的交付。

At this point, we have a preliminary agreement with Hitachi to create a new, standalone company that will integrate various hard disk drive operations from research and development through sales and marketing.

至此，我們與日立達成初步協議，將創建一家新的獨立公司，整合從研發到銷售和營銷的各種硬盤驅動器業務。

And more than just focusing on HDDs, an additional initiative addresses our working together on a common architecture for future storage subsystems to improve interoperability and lower customer cost. I'll touch on this again later.

除了專注於 HDD 之外，還有一項額外的舉措解決了我們在未來存儲子系統的通用架構上的合作，以提高互操作性並降低客戶成本。稍後我會再次談到這一點。

I'd also like to take a moment to comment on the various reports we've seen recently involving our accounting and disclosure practices.

我還想花點時間評論一下我們最近看到的涉及我們的會計和披露實踐的各種報告。

We have been astounded over the kinds of things we've read about IBM in the last few months. We certainly have no interest in rehashing any of it. So let me just say once again that we're proud of our accounting and disclosure practices. We hope this issue is behind us, and we'd like to move on.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們對我們所讀到的有關 IBM 的各種信息感到震驚。我們當然沒有興趣重新散列任何內容。所以讓我再次說，我們為我們的會計和披露實踐感到自豪。我們希望這個問題已經過去，我們希望繼續前進。

Now, let's turn to the first quarter results.

現在，讓我們看看第一季度的業績。

In this tough environment for IT spending, there are two major points I will make.

在這個艱難的 IT 支出環境中，我將提出兩個主要觀點。

As I said in our press release last week, we saw a continued slowdown in customer buying decisions. They chose to reduce or defer capital spending decisions until they see a sustained improvement in their own businesses. The resulting effect on us was an across-the-board weakness in revenues, despite gaining or holding share in key areas.

正如我在上週的新聞稿中所說，我們看到客戶購買決策持續放緩。他們選擇減少或推遲資本支出決策，直到他們看到自己的業務持續改善。儘管在關鍵領域獲得或持有份額，但對我們產生的影響是收入全面疲軟。

And second, while no one can predict the timing of an IT recovery, discussions with our large customer base give us confidence that IT remains key to their future business strategies in that IBM will have an increasing role in those plans.

其次，雖然沒有人能夠預測 IT 恢復的時間，但與我們龐大的客戶群的討論讓我們相信 IT 仍然是他們未來業務戰略的關鍵，因為 IBM 將在這些計劃中發揮越來越大的作用。

While uncertainties remain, here's what we do know. Our annuity-like stream of revenue and profit give us a higher safety net for our results than our competitors.

雖然不確定性依然存在，但我們確實知道。我們類似於年金的收入和利潤流為我們的業績提供了比競爭對手更高的安全網。

Our product leadership has become increasingly more evident. So whatever business opportunity is out there, we are going to get more than our historical share.

我們的產品領先地位越來越明顯。因此，無論有什麼商機，我們都將獲得超過我們歷史份額的收益。

And our business model is already positioned to address our customers' changing requirements, and to address the most profitable growth segments of the industry.

我們的商業模式已經定位於滿足客戶不斷變化的需求，並解決行業中最有利可圖的增長領域。

While we must continue to make adjustments to our portfolio of businesses, we are not faced with the fundamental changes our competitors must make. We remain very confident in the IT sector in general and in IBM's prospects.

雖然我們必須繼續調整我們的業務組合，但我們並未面臨競爭對手必須做出的根本性改變。我們對整個 IT 行業和 IBM 的前景仍然充滿信心。

I will make a few comments on our outlook later in the presentation. But let's first assess our first quarter results, starting with revenue, chart four.

我將在演示文稿的稍後部分對我們的前景發表一些評論。但讓我們首先評估我們的第一季度業績，從收入開始，圖表四。

We're going to take three different views of revenue, starting with a geographic perspective. Over 90 percent of our revenue comes from sales to end-user customers, which we break into three geographic areas.

我們將從地理角度出發，採用三種不同的收入觀點。我們 90% 以上的收入來自對最終用戶客戶的銷售，我們分為三個地理區域。

On a year-to-year basis at constant currency they were down six percent, about the same as in the fourth quarter. And there wasn't much change by major geography. The Americas declined eight percent, Europe declined four percent, and Asia-Pacific declined three percent.

按固定匯率計算，同比下降 6%，與第四季度大致相同。主要地理位置並沒有太大變化。美洲下降了 8%，歐洲下降了 4%，亞太地區下降了 3%。

Finally, our OEM business declined 37 percent, also about the same as in the fourth quarter.

最後，我們的 OEM 業務下降了 37%，也與第四季度大致相同。

Now, if you'll click on the next button for chart five, I'll touch on revenue by major line item. Again, these are in constant currency for comparison purposes. And I'll be brief, since we'll cover these businesses more thoroughly in a few minutes.

現在，如果您單擊圖表 5 的下一個按鈕，我將按主要項目來介紹收入。同樣，出於比較目的，這些都是不變的貨幣。我會很簡短，因為我們將在幾分鐘內更全面地介紹這些業務。

Let me start with global services. Revenue was up one percent, just as it was in the fourth quarter. So, with another quarter of strong signings growth, this business has stabilized. Our annuity-like outsourcing and maintenance businesses continue to do well. But we continue to feel the economic pressure in consulting and systems integration along with our competitors.

讓我從全球服務開始。與第四季度一樣，收入增長了 1%。因此，隨著另一個季度的強勁簽約增長，這項業務已經穩定下來。我們的年金類外包和維修業務繼續表現良好。但我們與競爭對手一起繼續感受到諮詢和系統集成方面的經濟壓力。

Hardware revenue in the first quarter declined 23 percent, two points more than in the fourth quarter. By segment, technology was down 37 percent. Enterprise, server plus storage was down 19 percent. And personal and printing systems was also down 19 percent.

第一季度硬件收入下降 23%，比第四季度多兩個百分點。按細分市場劃分，技術下降了 37%。企業、服務器和存儲下降了 19%。個人和打印系統也下降了 19%。

Software grew three percent, while middleware grew six percent. Global financing revenue declined three percent, about the same as in the fourth quarter.

軟件增長了 3%，而中間件增長了 6%。全球融資收入下降了 3%，與第四季度大致相同。

Income-generating assets were down from last year, and financing originations were $8 billion in the quarter.

創收資產較去年有所下降，本季度融資來源為 80 億美元。

Now let's take a third view of revenue, chart six.

現在讓我們從第三種收入角度來看，圖六。

A point that we've been emphasizing about our business model is the value of our annuity-like revenue. Not only does it fund our growth, but in tough economic times like these, it provides a safety net that is higher than most of our piece-part competitors.

我們一直在強調我們的商業模式的一點是我們年金收入的價值。它不僅為我們的增長提供資金，而且在這樣的艱難經濟時期，它提供了一個高於我們大多數零部件競爭對手的安全網。

As we enter the year, we know that about a third of our revenues for that year are already under contract. Key contributors are most of our outsourcing revenue, our maintenance revenue, our host-based software, our global financing, and then smaller portions of our other businesses.

當我們進入這一年時，我們知道那一年我們大約三分之一的收入已經簽訂了合同。主要貢獻者是我們的大部分外包收入、我們的維護收入、我們基於主機的軟件、我們的全球融資，然後是我們其他業務的一小部分。

For the shorter period of a quarter, the proportion is closer to 50 percent. So, the left chart depicts the relationship for the first quarter. The annuity-based revenue came in as expected, but the darker portion of the transaction-based revenue represents the shortfall.

對於較短的一個季度，該比例接近 50%。因此，左圖描述了第一季度的關係。基於年金的收入按預期出現，但基於交易的收入中較暗的部分代表了短缺。

The chart on the right shows the cumulative orders for a representative transaction-based product. It shows the historical pattern of how total orders build by week, accelerating at the end of the quarter.

右圖顯示了具有代表性的基於交易的產品的累積訂單。它顯示了總訂單如何按週增長的歷史模式，並在季度末加速。

Different product offerings have different patterns. Once again, the darkened portion shows the shortfall as it occurred very late in the quarter. We did have a strong finish in the final week, but not enough to close the gap.

不同的產品有不同的模式。再一次，變暗的部分顯示了短缺，因為它發生在本季度很晚的時候。我們在最後一周確實取得了不錯的成績，但還不足以縮小差距。

As we and many of our competitors have stated, many of our customers chose to reduce or defer capital spending decisions until they see a sustained improvement in their businesses. So, we have an enviable annuity-like base.

正如我們和我們的許多競爭對手所說，我們的許多客戶選擇減少或推遲資本支出決策，直到他們看到他們的業務持續改善。所以，我們有一個令人羨慕的類似年金的基礎。

Our pipeline of opportunity remains strong, but it is critical that we have a strong finish at the end of the quarter, as the chart indicates. I'll talk more about that later.

正如圖表所示，我們的機會渠道仍然強勁，但至關重要的是，我們必須在本季度末取得強勁的業績。我稍後再談。

Now, let's review gross profit margin, chart seven.

現在，讓我們回顧一下毛利率，圖七。

Total gross profit margin for the first quarter was 34.7 percent, down 1.4 points from last year. As in the fourth quarter, gross profit margin improved year to year in each revenue segment except hardware, which declined by nearly nine points. Most significant was the continued weakness in demand for our OEM products.

一季度總毛利率為34.7%，比去年下降1.4個百分點。與第四季度一樣，除硬件外，每個收入部門的毛利率均同比提高，下降了近 9 個百分點。最重要的是對我們的 OEM 產品的需求持續疲軟。

Gross profit margin for our microelectronics division is down 35 points year to year, reflecting the fixed variable nature of this business. And for HDDs, they were down 16 points year to year.

我們微電子部門的毛利率同比下降 35 個百分點，反映了該業務的固定變量性質。對於 HDD，它們每年下降 16 個百分點。

However, for

然而，對於

products were pretty stable, as we offset price reductions with cost reductions. But within product lines, there was a mix towards the lower end.

產品相當穩定，因為我們用降低成本來抵消降價。但在產品線中，低端有一個組合。

Global services gross profit margin improved half a point. Software gross profit margin improved nearly a point. And our global financing gross profit margin improved more than nine points, reflecting a downward trend in interest rates.

全球服務毛利率提高半個百分點。軟件毛利率提升近一個百分點。並且我們的全球融資毛利率提高了9個點以上，反映了利率的下降趨勢。

Now, let's turn to expense, chart eight.

現在，讓我們談談費用，圖表八。

This chart reflects our enhanced breakout of data introduced with our annual report. Very briefly, we've added a line for intellectual property and custom development income. These were formerly recorded as reductions to SG&A and RD&E.

該圖表反映了我們在年度報告中引入的增強數據突破。簡而言之，我們為知識產權和定制開發收入增加了一條線。這些以前被記錄為對 SG&A 和 RD&E 的削減。

And second, we've reclassified a number of other transactions that were previously part of SG&A, adding them to the "other income" line. This new other income and expense line is now made up principally of interest income and gain or losses from equity method investments, marketable securities, currency exchange and real estate sales.

其次，我們對以前屬於 SG&A 的一些其他交易進行了重新分類，將它們添加到“其他收入”行中。這個新的其他收入和費用項目現在主要由權益法投資、有價證券、貨幣兌換和房地產銷售的利息收入和損益組成。

So, total expense and other income, which is all part of managing the breadth of our business, was $4.7 billion in the first quarter, down seven percent from the first quarter of 2001.

因此，作為管理我們業務範圍的一部分的總支出和其他收入在第一季度為 47 億美元，比 2001 年第一季度下降了 7%。

SG&A decreased two percent. There are a few key dynamics. As in recent quarters, we continued to cut discretionary spending. But also, we continue to make progress on improving productivity.

SG&A 下降了 2%。有一些關鍵的動態。與最近幾個季度一樣，我們繼續削減可自由支配的支出。而且，我們繼續在提高生產力方面取得進展。

One of the objectives for 2002, we highlighted in our annual report. In the first quarter, we cut about a quarter of a billion dollars out of infrastructure, redirecting much of these savings to direct investments where we can leverage our leadership, like development and sales for software, services, servers and storage.

我們在年度報告中強調了 2002 年的目標之一。在第一季度，我們從基礎設施中削減了大約 10 億美元，將這些節省中的大部分用於直接投資，我們可以利用我們的領導地位，例如軟件、服務、服務器和存儲的開發和銷售。

On the other hand, we also continue to increase receivable provisions, reflecting the weak economy, and to increase workforce rebalancing, reflective of the changing requirements for skills and of ongoing efforts to improve our productivity.

另一方面，我們還繼續增加應收撥備，以反映疲軟的經濟，並加強勞動力再平衡，以反映對技能的不斷變化的要求以及不斷努力提高我們的生產力。

R&D decreased six percent, driven by focus on discretionary expense and by savings from the integration of Lotus and Tivoli into our software business.

研發減少了 6%，原因是專注於可自由支配的費用，以及將 Lotus 和 Tivoli 集成到我們的軟件業務中所帶來的節省。

IP and custom development income was $333 million. The total was up $56 million from a year ago. This income comes from dozens of deals, as happens every quarter. This quarter the largest was the Sony-Toshiba agreement, which combined was about $60 million. I'm going to show you some more details in a moment.

知識產權和定制開發收入為 3.33 億美元。總額比一年前增加了 5600 萬美元。這筆收入來自數十筆交易，每季度都會發生這種情況。本季度最大的是索尼與東芝的協議，總價值約為 6000 萬美元。稍後我將向您展示更多細節。

Next, other income and expense, which at $205 million, was about flat with the fourth quarter, but up $129 million from last year's first quarter. Year-to-year the key difference is the significant reduction in equity investment write-downs, as I had mentioned back in January, as well as the transaction with Sanmina-SCI for our desktop manufacturing.

其次，其他收入和支出為 2.05 億美元，與第四季度基本持平，但比去年第一季度增加了 1.29 億美元。正如我在一月份提到的那樣，與去年相比，主要區別在於股權投資減記的顯著減少，以及與 Sanmina-SCI 就我們的台式機製造進行的交易。

Finally, interest expense associated with our small amount of core debt was $30 million, down $42 million due to a reduced level of debt and lower interest rates.

最後，與我們少量核心債務相關的利息費用為 3000 萬美元，由於債務水平降低和利率降低，減少了 4200 萬美元。

Now let me make a general point, again about expense.

現在讓我提出一個一般性的觀點，再次關於費用。

In the roadmap section of the annual report, we noted that there were events and trends that can help or hurt earnings. This quarter was no exception, and I've noted some of the them.

在年度報告的路線圖部分，我們注意到有些事件和趨勢可能有助於或損害收益。本季度也不例外，我已經註意到其中的一些。

Year-to-year on the hurt side were bad debt expense, up about $60 million, and continued workforce rebalancing costs, up $110 million. We also had lower pension income, about a $75 million hit, and lower interest income, down about $20 million.

壞賬費用同比增加約 6000 萬美元，勞動力再平衡成本持續增加 1.1 億美元。我們的養老金收入也較低，約 7500 萬美元，利息收入也較低，減少了約 2000 萬美元。

But we got some help -- elimination of goodwill amortization, about $75 million. Less impact from equity transactions, about $90 million. Income from intellectual property, up $56 million. And about $90 million from the sale of the U.S. and European desktop PC manufacturing to Sanmina-SCI.

但我們得到了一些幫助——消除商譽攤銷，大約 7500 萬美元。股權交易的影響較小，約為 9000 萬美元。知識產權收入增加了 5600 萬美元。還有大約 9000 萬美元來自向 Sanmina-SCI 出售美國和歐洲台式 PC 製造。

There are many other factors on a smaller scale. But when you add the pluses and minuses up, there was little net effect this quarter.

在較小的範圍內還有許多其他因素。但是，當您將利弊加起來時，本季度幾乎沒有淨效應。

You must look at the combined effect. It may help or hurt in any given quarter, but we feel it's our job to deal with these events within the context of our business model over time.

你必須看看綜合效果。在任何給定的季度可能會有所幫助或傷害，但我們認為隨著時間的推移在我們的商業模式的背景下處理這些事件是我們的工作。

Now, let me go back to intellectual property chart nine.

現在，讓我回到知識產權圖表九。

Let me be very direct. It is absurd to characterize our intellectual property and custom development income as non-operational, as has been done in a number of reports and articles.

讓我說得非常直接。將我們的知識產權和定制開發收入描述為非運營收入是荒謬的，正如許多報告和文章中所做的那樣。

The simple fact is that generating intellectual property and deriving value from it is absolutely fundamental to IBM. We invest a lot of money in R&D, about $5.5 billion, which is a great deal more than our competitors.

一個簡單的事實是，產生知識產權並從中獲得價值對於 IBM 來說絕對是基礎。我們在研發上投入了大量資金，大約 55 億美元，比我們的競爭對手多很多。

We have a portfolio of 37,000 patents worldwide, and we've been adding to that portfolio by generating more patents than any other company for nine consecutive years.

我們在全球擁有 37,000 項專利組合，並且通過連續九年產生的專利數量超過任何其他公司，我們一直在增加該組合。

When Lou Gerstner joined IBM, one of his mandates was to dramatically shorten the time from research to final product. And today, you see that in the form of industry-leading technology and products. But not all R&D results in a mainstream IBM product.

當 Lou Gerstner 加入 IBM 時，他的任務之一是大幅縮短從研究到最終產品的時間。而今天，您會以行業領先的技術和產品的形式看到這一點。但並不是所有的研發成果都會成為 IBM 的主流產品。

However, you can monetize this IP in different ways for the benefit of our shareholders. Sometimes IP results in a product or offering that is not consistent with our strategic direction and is not growing as fast as it would in another company's hands.

但是，為了我們股東的利益，您可以通過不同的方式將該 IP 貨幣化。有時，知識產權會導致產品或服務與我們的戰略方向不一致，並且增長速度不如其他公司手中的那麼快。

As a result, we can get a good price for the IP even though very few assets or people are part of the deal. More typically, we have a portfolio of IP that we're looking to either license or sell depending on what the market will bear.

因此，即使很少有資產或人員參與交易，我們也可以獲得 IP 的好價格。更典型的是，我們有一個 IP 組合，我們希望根據市場承受的情況進行許可或出售。

We have a separate organization that is responsible for identifying the opportunities and optimizing the returns over time. And we set targets each quarter for IP income, just as we do for the product sales, though investors used to question the value it got from our R&D investment.

我們有一個單獨的組織，負責識別機會並隨著時間的推移優化回報。我們每個季度都為 IP 收入設定目標，就像我們為產品銷售所做的那樣，儘管投資者過去常常質疑它從我們的研發投資中獲得的價值。

The bar chart shows that since 1994, we have done a better job of getting the full value, not just in products and services. Deriving value from our intellectual property is an integral part of our ongoing business, and a competitive and financial advantage.

條形圖顯示，自 1994 年以來，我們在獲得全部價值方面做得更好，而不僅僅是在產品和服務方面。從我們的知識產權中獲取價值是我們持續業務的一個組成部分，也是我們的競爭和財務優勢。

Now let's move to cash flow, chart 10.

現在讓我們來看現金流，圖 10。

We managed our cash flow well in a tough environment. Our cash flow is typically negative in the first quarter, in large part due to the payment of variable compensation to employees.

我們在艱難的環境中很好地管理了我們的現金流。我們的現金流在第一季度通常為負數，這在很大程度上是由於向員工支付了可變薪酬。

This year our cash flow in the first quarter was a negative $1 billion, but an improvement of $600 million over the first quarter of both 2001 and 2000.

今年第一季度我們的現金流為負 10 億美元，但比 2001 年和 2000 年第一季度都增加了 6 億美元。

While our net income was down $558 million, working capital improved by $1 billion. This strong performance enabled us to continue our investments. We put $1.3 billion into capital expenditures. We used $1.8 billion to buy back about 17 million shares, leaving us with $2.8 billion remaining in our last board authorization a the end of the quarter.

雖然我們的淨收入減少了 5.58 億美元，但營運資金增加了 10 億美元。這種強勁的表現使我們能夠繼續投資。我們將 13 億美元用於資本支出。我們用 18 億美元回購了約 1700 萬股股票，在本季度末的最後一次董事會授權中剩下 28 億美元。

Notice that our global financing assets other than fixed assets generated an additional half-a-billion dollars in cash over the last year's quarter. Strong cash flow leads us to a strong balance sheet.

請注意，我們除固定資產外的全球融資資產在去年的季度中產生了額外的 5 億美元現金。強勁的現金流使我們擁有強大的資產負債表。

Let's look at that next, chart 11. And the balance sheet remained very healthy.

接下來讓我們看一下圖表 11。資產負債表仍然非常健康。

Cash on the balance sheet stands at $4 billion, just above a year ago. Total debt decreased to $3.9 billion from a year ago. Global financing debt was reduced by $2.7 billion, in line with a reduction in global financing assets.

資產負債表上的現金為 40 億美元，略高於一年前。總債務比一年前減少到 39 億美元。全球融資債務減少 27 億美元，與全球融資資產減少一致。

Ninety-eight percent of IBM's debt was in support of global financing, and was leveraged at a comfortable 6.6 to one.

IBM 98% 的債務用於支持全球融資，其槓桿率為 6.6 比 1。

Core debt was reduced by an additional $1.2 billion year-to-year to $531 million, and stands at a three percent debt to capital. Asset debt and leverage levels continue to receive high focus, and it shows in our results.

核心債務同比減少了 12 億美元，達到 5.31 億美元，資本債務佔 3%。資產債務和槓桿水平繼續受到高度關注，這在我們的結果中有所體現。

There continues to be articles suggesting that IBM has leveraged its balance sheet in order to buy back stock. The simple fact is that a financing business is based on leveraging debt. We do that conservatively, and our debt is directly tied to our financing assets. It grows or shrinks as those assets do.

仍有文章暗示 IBM 已利用其資產負債表回購股票。一個簡單的事實是，融資業務是基於利用債務。我們這樣做是保守的，我們的債務與我們的融資資產直接相關。它隨著這些資產的增長或縮小。

Excluding global financing, IBM has virtually no debt.

排除全球融資，IBM 幾乎沒有債務。

Now let me turn to a discussion of some of our individual businesses, starting with global services, chart 12.

現在讓我談談我們的一些個體業務，從全球服務開始，圖 12。

Global services, at $8.2 billion, was up one percent at constant currency. In revenue, services was up one percent and maintenance was up three percent, similar to the fourth quarter.

全球服務業為 82 億美元，按固定匯率計算增長 1%。在收入方面，服務增長了 1%，維護增長了 3%，與第四季度相似。

In a record first quarter signings, with over $15 billion, up 50 percent, there were 10 deals over $100 million, of which two were over $1 billion. And our pipeline for new deals remains strong.

在創紀錄的第一季度簽約額超過 150 億美元，增長 50%，有 10 筆交易超過 1 億美元，其中兩筆超過 10 億美元。我們的新交易渠道仍然強勁。

Despite the ongoing economic downturn, we continue to exercise financial discipline, demonstrated by year-to-year profit margin improvements for the quarter.

儘管經濟持續低迷，但我們繼續執行財務紀律，本季度利潤率逐年提高就證明了這一點。

Now let me review the three major services segments.

現在讓我回顧一下三大服務領域。

Strategic outsourcing, which is 40 percent of global services, grew six percent at constant currency. Demand remains strong. The value proposition of strategic outsourcing is attractive to customers in both good and bad economies, as customers focus on cost reductions. We achieve the high success rate in converting our opportunity pipeline into signings.

佔全球服務 40% 的戰略外包按固定匯率計算增長了 6%。需求依然強勁。戰略外包的價值主張對經濟好壞的客戶都很有吸引力，因為客戶專注於降低成本。我們在將機會管道轉化為簽約方面取得了很高的成功率。

Our hosting revenue grew 17 percent. This includes e-sourcing, a form of hosting on demand.

我們的託管收入增長了 17%。這包括電子採購，一種按需託管的形式。

Integrated technology services, including product support services and maintenance, is a third of global services, and grew three percent at constant currency.

包括產品支持服務和維護在內的綜合技術服務佔全球服務的三分之一，按固定匯率計算增長了 3%。

Management services, such as business recovery, technical support and infrastructure and systems management, continued to grow. But revenue growth has been moderating for hardware deployment and supporting services, as you would expect with the continued slowdown in PCs, telecommunications and networking equipment providers.

業務恢復、技術支持以及基礎設施和系統管理等管理服務繼續增長。但硬件部署和支持服務的收入增長一直在放緩，正如您所預料的那樣，PC、電信和網絡設備提供商的持續放緩。

Finally, business innovation services, which includes consulting and systems integration, is slightly less than a quarter of global services revenue.

最後，包括諮詢和系統集成在內的業務創新服務在全球服務收入中的佔比略低於四分之一。

As we stated in last quarter's earnings announcement, this segment of services, which has short-term contracts, has been most impacted by the economy. BIS revenues declined seven percent year-to-year, about the same as the fourth quarter. And again, the rate of decline was most predominant in the Americas.

正如我們在上一季度的收益公告中所述，這一具有短期合同的服務部門受經濟影響最大。 BIS 收入同比下降 7%，與第四季度大致相同。再一次，下降的速度在美洲最為顯著。

Yet, we did continue to see year-to-year growth in key e-business areas, as customers invested where they could optimize cost savings. E-business integration revenue again had strong growth, and ERP was up moderately.

然而，我們確實繼續看到關鍵電子商務領域的逐年增長，因為客戶投資於他們可以優化成本節約的領域。電子商務集成收入再次強勁增長，ERP 小幅上漲。

Let me briefly address the relationship between signings and revenue growth. While we now have two consecutive quarters of strong signings growth, service revenue was only up one percent.

讓我簡單談談簽約與收入增長之間的關係。雖然我們現在有連續兩個季度的強勁簽約增長，但服務收入僅增長了 1%。

The graph at the bottom of this chart shows that revenue growth follows signings growth, but the effect is not immediate. It takes sustained movement in signings for two or three quarters to effect a change in revenue growth. The rate of growth is dependent upon several factors, including the mix of long-term versus short-term signings and any restructuring of existing customer engagements.

該圖表底部的圖表顯示收入增長跟隨簽約增長，但效果不是立竿見影的。要改變收入增長，需要持續兩三個季度的簽約。增長率取決於幾個因素，包括長期與短期簽約的混合以及現有客戶參與的任何重組。

With our strong signings over the last two quarters combined with the opportunity in our healthy pipeline, services revenue could grow double digits by the end of the year. Based on our signings, we feel optimistic about

憑藉我們在過去兩個季度的強勁簽約以及我們健康管道中的機會，到今年年底服務收入可能會增長兩位數。根據我們的簽約，我們感到樂觀

.

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Now click on the next button for chart 13, and I'll discuss e-servers and storage. IBM e-server revenue is down 19 percent, but we expect we held share when the rest of the sector data is available.

現在單擊圖表 13 的下一步按鈕，我將討論電子服務器和存儲。 IBM 電子服務器收入下降了 19%，但我們預計當其他行業數據可用時，我們將持有份額。

In the server and storage sectors during the first quarter, we saw a longer customer decision process, and aggressive pricing by competitors. Although, as I said earlier, we matched our price reductions with cost reductions.

在第一季度的服務器和存儲領域，我們看到了更長的客戶決策過程，以及競爭對手的激進定價。雖然，正如我之前所說，我們將降價與降低成本相匹配。

And customers also continue to look at the least expensive solution to their short-term need, as well as a quick return on their IT investment.

客戶還繼續尋找最便宜的解決方案來滿足他們的短期需求，以及快速獲得 IT 投資回報。

On the high end, our mainframe customers pushed processor utilization rates higher and deferred adding capacity. Utilization on mainframe is significantly higher than just six months ago.

在高端，我們的大型機客戶提高了處理器利用率並推遲了增加容量。大型機的利用率明顯高於六個月前。

The capacity requirements are directly related to our customers' business volumes. And we anticipate that as the rate and pace of the economy picks up, the business volumes will drive up capacity needs.

容量要求與我們客戶的業務量直接相關。我們預計，隨著經濟增速和步伐的加快，業務量將推高容量需求。

At the end of the server line, we see Linux on Intel moving in on the low end of the Unix space due to the strong price performance of commodity processors and the flexibility of an open-source operating system.

在服務器產品線的末端，由於商品處理器的強大性價比和開源操作系統的靈活性，我們看到 Intel 上的 Linux 進入了 Unix 領域的低端。

Our xSeries is doing better because we added performance and reliability advantages.

我們的 xSeries 做得更好，因為我們增加了性能和可靠性優勢。

Our first quarter results reflect this environment. Mainframe MIPS declined four percent year to year, and revenue declined 20 percent at constant currency. However, Linux on mainframes grew at over 100 percent.

我們的第一季度業績反映了這種環境。大型機 MIPS 同比下降 4%，按固定匯率計算，收入下降 20%。然而，大型機上的 Linux 增長了 100% 以上。

Our pSeries Unix servers were down 24 percent year to year, probably in line with the industry. And our p670 mid-range Regatta plus our lean channel inventory should contribute to our second quarter performance.

我們的 pSeries Unix 服務器同比下降 24%，這可能與行業一致。我們的 p670 中檔帆船賽加上我們的精益渠道庫存應該有助於我們第二季度的業績。

iSeries was down 35 percent, as customers deferred buying decisions pending the introduction of the Power 4 architecture. We will also be announcing new virtualization capabilities for Linux on iSeries at the end of the month. xSeries revenue declined three percent year to year, driven by the steep price erosion we have seen over the past year.

iSeries 下降了 35%，因為客戶在推出 Power 4 架構之前推遲了購買決定。我們還將在月底宣布針對 iSeries 上的 Linux 的新虛擬化功能。 xSeries 收入同比下降 3%，這是由於我們在過去一年中看到的價格急劇下降。

The eServer x440, which we announced last month, will bring a new measure of performance by enabling our customers to scale to 16 processors.

我們上個月發布的 eServer x440 將使我們的客戶能夠擴展到 16 個處理器，從而帶來新的性能衡量標準。

In storage, we continue to see customers focus on network-enabled products, as revenue from our emerging SAN fabric and NAS products more than doubled year-to-year.

在存儲方面，我們繼續看到客戶關注支持網絡的產品，因為我們新興的 SAN 結構和 NAS 產品的收入同比增長了一倍以上。

Total disk storage was down 12 percent, but continued to gain share. Tape storage was down 18 percent and held share. Similar to servers, there was increasing price pressure and a longer customer decision process, resulting in some deferrals at the end of the quarter.

總磁盤存儲量下降了 12%，但繼續獲得份額。磁帶存儲下降了 18% 並佔據了市場份額。與服務器類似，價格壓力越來越大，客戶決策過程也越來越長，導致本季度末出現一些延期。

Despite this, product margins were down only slightly for all key disk and tape products, and remain strong.

儘管如此，所有關鍵磁盤和磁帶產品的產品利潤率僅略有下降，並保持強勁。

Now click on the next button for personal and printing systems, chart 14.

現在單擊個人和打印系統的下一步按鈕，圖 14。

Our segment reporting showed personal and printing systems business had a profit of $65 million in the first quarter. But this included the gain from the Sanmina-SCI transaction, offset by some resource rebalancing.

我們的分部報告顯示，個人和打印系統業務在第一季度的利潤為 6500 萬美元。但這包括 Sanmina-SCI 交易的收益，但被一些資源再平衡所抵消。

So, the tough marketplace conditions we saw through 2001, continued in the first quarter. Revenue was down 19 percent, which we believe was in line with the industry segments in which we compete.

因此，我們在 2001 年看到的嚴峻市場狀況在第一季度繼續存在。收入下降了 19%，我們認為這與我們競爭的行業部分一致。

We continued to execute on the strategies for our PCs we have discussed in the past. Our inventory was down nearly 40 percent year-to-year.

我們繼續執行我們過去討論過的 PC 策略。我們的庫存同比下降了近 40%。

Channel inventory was also reduced by over $250 million from a year ago, and expenses were down more than 20 percent year-to-year, although the percent of business through our direct channel did not meet our expectations.

渠道庫存也比一年前減少了超過 2.5 億美元，費用同比下降了 20% 以上，儘管通過我們直接渠道的業務百分比沒有達到我們的預期。

We also continued to bring innovative new function to our desktop PCs and ThinkPads, like the latest wireless and security offerings.

我們還繼續為我們的台式 PC 和 ThinkPad 帶來創新的新功能，例如最新的無線和安全產品。

Now if you'll move to chart 15, we'll cover technology.

現在，如果您轉到圖 15，我們將介紹技術。

The technology segment lost $276 million this quarter, about $75 million more than the preliminary estimate in our press release last week. This loss equates to 11 cents of earnings per share in the quarter, and was more than half of our year-to-year decline.

本季度技術部門虧損 2.76 億美元，比我們上週新聞稿中的初步估計多出約 7500 萬美元。這一損失相當於本季度每股收益的 11 美分，是我們同比下降的一半以上。

Revenue from our microelectronics division was down 42 percent year-to-year at constant currency. Our customers' inventory of IBM components stabilized at the same level as last quarter, and seems to be about right for the inventory turnover going forward.

我們微電子部門的收入按固定匯率計算同比下降 42%。我們客戶的 IBM 組件庫存穩定在與上一季度相同的水平，並且似乎與未來的庫存周轉率差不多。

Our microelectronics division is positioned for the shift from standalone processors to the integration of multiple functions on a single chip, and that is shift to our strength.

我們的微電子部門定位於從獨立處理器轉變為在單個芯片上集成多種功能，這就是我們的優勢所在。

Dataquest has reported that IBM is the industry leader in custom ASIC chips for three years in a row. A power PC has been combined with other features to make chips for everything from television set-top boxes to gain systems, to network routers.

Dataquest 報告稱，IBM 連續三年成為定制 ASIC 芯片的行業領導者。電源 PC 與其他功能相結合，為從電視機頂盒到增益系統，再到網絡路由器等各種設備製造芯片。

Revenue from OEM hard disk drives was down 29 percent year-to-year, reflecting the continued pricing and demand pressures in the components market. All three of the new drives I told you about last quarter have ramped up strongly and are shipping in volume. These new products account for over 70 percent of the first quarter HDD revenue.

來自 OEM 硬盤驅動器的收入同比下降 29%，反映了組件市場持續的定價和需求壓力。我在上個季度告訴你的所有三個新驅動器都在強勁增長，並且正在大量出貨。這些新產品佔第一季度 HDD 收入的 70% 以上。

Also, as I stated in my opening remarks, we are working with Hitachi on a preliminary agreement involving our HDD business. As part of this, we will need to assess our capacity requirements.

此外，正如我在開場白中所說，我們正在與日立就涉及我們的硬盤業務的初步協議進行合作。作為其中的一部分，我們將需要評估我們的容量需求。

Now click on the next button for software, chart 16.

現在單擊軟件的下一步按鈕，圖 16。

Our software business, at $2.9 billion, grew two percent at constant currency. Operating system revenue declined seven percent, driven by lower volumes in pSeries and iSeries.

我們的軟件業務達到 29 億美元，按固定匯率計算增長了 2%。由於 pSeries 和 iSeries 銷量下降，操作系統收入下降了 7%。

Middleware revenue, which represent 80 percent of total software, grew six percent. About two-thirds of our middleware revenue flows from host systems, which is annuity-like and based on monthly license charges. In the quarter, this grew three percent, driven principally by DB2 and WebSphere.

佔軟件總量 80% 的中間件收入增長了 6%。我們大約三分之二的中間件收入來自主機系統，這類似於年金，並基於每月的許可費用。在本季度，這主要是由 DB2 和 WebSphere 推動的，增長了 3%。

Middleware revenue on Unix and NT platforms grew 13 percent. The key factor was the addition of Informix to our database revenue stream. While delayed customer decisions in the last few weeks of the quarter was also a factor in software, particularly on Unix and NT platforms, we do expect to gain share against key competitors.

Unix 和 NT 平台的中間件收入增長了 13%。關鍵因素是將 Informix 添加到我們的數據庫收入流中。雖然本季度最後幾周延遲客戶決策也是軟件方面的一個因素，特別是在 Unix 和 NT 平台上，但我們確實希望在主要競爭對手中獲得份額。

WebSphere, our leading infrastructure middleware for e-business, delivered another strong quarter, with 53 percent growth. This is WebSphere's 12th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

WebSphere 是我們領先的電子商務基礎設施中間件，該季度實現了又一個強勁增長，增長了 53%。這是 WebSphere 連續第 12 個季度實現兩位數增長。

Meanwhile, the average Street expectation for our leading competitor is a revenue decline of over 13 percent.

與此同時，華爾街對我們主要競爭對手的平均預期是收入下降 13% 以上。

The Giga Information Group reported that WebSphere more than doubled its market share from 1999 to 2001, while BEA lost share. Giga now views WebSphere in a deadlock with BEA for the industry lead.

Giga Information Group 報告稱，從 1999 年到 2001 年，WebSphere 的市場份額增加了一倍多，而 BEA 份額下降。 Giga 現在認為 WebSphere 與 BEA 處於行業領先地位的僵局。

In January, we closed the acquisition of CrossWorlds. This key integration software is now part of the WebSphere portfolio. We continue to introduce key e-business standards in to WebSphere.

一月份，我們完成了對 CrossWorlds 的收購。這個關鍵的集成軟件現在是 WebSphere 產品組合的一部分。我們繼續將關鍵的電子商務標準引入 WebSphere。

Last week we announced the new Web services standard for security with Microsoft and VeriSign.

上週，我們宣布了 Microsoft 和 VeriSign 的新 Web 服務安全標準。

DN2, our leading database management software grew 12 percent, in sharp contrast to our leading competitor, which the Street expects to decline 15 percent, as database tools business grew 17 percent.

我們領先的數據庫管理軟件 DN2 增長了 12%，與我們的主要競爭對手形成鮮明對比，華爾街預計後者將下降 15%，而數據庫工具業務增長了 17%。

Our total management software business, with the addition of Informix, grew 28 percent.

隨著 Informix 的加入，我們的總管理軟件業務增長了 28%。

Tivoli's turnaround continued with the seven percent year-to-year growth, fueled by strong demand for its security and systems management products.

在對其安全和系統管理產品的強勁需求的推動下，Tivoli 繼續扭虧為盈，同比增長 7%。

Last week we launched Tivoli's entire product line, focusing on business impact management. In security software, Tivoli is number one in share in EMEA and Asia-Pacific, and number two worldwide according to IDC.

上週我們推出了 Tivoli 的整個產品線，專注於業務影響管理。在安全軟件方面，根據 IDC 的數據，Tivoli 在 EMEA 和亞太地區的份額排名第一，在全球排名第二。

Lotus revenue declined slightly. Lotus Notes still maintained the number one position in this more mature segment. Lotus advanced collaboration software, including same-time encrypt

蓮花收入略有下降。 Lotus Notes 在這個更成熟的細分市場中仍然保持著第一的位置。 Lotus 高級協作軟件，包括同時加密

, grew seven percent.

，增長了百分之七。

And finally, we continue to expand our strategic ISV alliances, which are aimed at helping customers roll out new application and expand IBM's share.

最後，我們繼續擴展我們的戰略 ISV 聯盟，旨在幫助客戶推出新的應用程序並擴大 IBM 的份額。

We announced eight new alliances this quarter, with an emphasis on leading solutions in customer relationship management and product life management.

本季度我們宣布了八個新的聯盟，重點是客戶關係管理和產品生命週期管理方面的領先解決方案。

We now have a total of 82 alliances announced to-date. That gives us financial stability and competitive advantage, a strategy based on solutions, which leverages the breadth of IBM in a clear objective of gaining share in key business segments.

迄今為止，我們總共宣布了 82 個聯盟。這為我們提供了財務穩定性和競爭優勢，這是一種基於解決方案的戰略，它利用 IBM 的廣度實現在關鍵業務領域獲得份額的明確目標。

Now, please move to chart 17.

現在，請移至圖 17。

At this point, I'd like to take a few minutes to briefly respond to three concerns that some of you have brought up recently -- the drivers of our EPS growth in recent years, the actions we've taken to improve our growth, and our net profits compared with several of our key competitors.

在這一點上，我想花幾分鐘簡要回應你們中的一些人最近提出的三個擔憂——近年來我們每股收益增長的驅動力，我們為改善增長而採取的行動，與我們的幾個主要競爭對手相比，我們的淨利潤。

If you look back five or six years, when IBM's e-business transformation was just beginning, it's true that a portion of our earnings growth came from such areas as share repurchases and improvements in our tax rate.

如果你回顧五六年，當 IBM 的電子商務轉型剛剛開始時，我們確實有一部分收益增長來自股票回購和提高我們的稅率等領域。

We don't view this as non-operational. We consider this good management.

我們不認為這是不可操作的。我們認為這是良好的管理。

IBM's tax rate used to be over 40 percent, substantially out of line with the rest of our industry. And many of our long-term shareholders have applauded our stock buyback program, recognizing that we have not spent the money chasing dot-com dreams like so many other companies.

IBM 的稅率曾經超過 40%，與我們行業的其他公司大相徑庭。我們的許多長期股東都對我們的股票回購計劃表示讚賞，因為我們認識到我們沒有像許多其他公司那樣把錢花在追逐 .com 夢想上。

It's also true that our over-funded pension plan has contributed to our reported results, following generally accepted accounting principles. In this environment, this is good news for our employees and retirees.

按照公認的會計原則，我們資金過剩的養老金計劃也為我們報告的結果做出了貢獻，這也是事實。在這種環境下，這對我們的員工和退休人員來說是個好消息。

We are also mindful that we must manage a total compensation for our employees, offering them the right mix of salary, incentives and benefits to attract and retain the best people. The pension plan isn't the only factor.

我們還注意到，我們必須為員工管理總薪酬，為他們提供適當的薪酬、激勵和福利組合，以吸引和留住最優秀的人才。養老金計劃並不是唯一的因素。

In recent years, the net effect of factors such as taxes, share buybacks, pension gain and currency have become a smaller and smaller part of our earnings growth. In fact, this combination of items actually reduced our profit growth in 2001.

近年來，稅收、股票回購、養老金收益和貨幣等因素的淨影響在我們的盈利增長中所佔的比重越來越小。事實上，這些項目組合實際上降低了我們 2001 年的利潤增長。

But here's a point on which I think we can all agree. Cash flow is the best impartial measure. It cuts through all of these issues, which is why we and other well-run companies put so much focus on it.

但我認為我們都可以同意這一點。現金流是最好的公正衡量標準。它解決了所有這些問題，這就是為什麼我們和其他經營良好的公司如此關注它的原因。

Go back eight years at IBM. Our cash flow was running dry. Since then, we've built it up substantially, first by strengthening our balance sheet, and then by improving our net income and operational cash management.

回到 IBM 的八年。我們的現金流正在枯竭。從那時起，我們通過加強我們的資產負債表，然後通過改善我們的淨收入和運營現金管理來大幅建立它。

In each of the last two years, we've generated about $7.5 billion in free cash flow. Our focus on cash flow keeps us focused on good operational management.

在過去兩年中，我們每年都產生約 75 億美元的自由現金流。我們對現金流的關注使我們專注於良好的運營管理。

We are not distracted by people who criticize our earnings by selectively picking one or two items, such as pension gains or tax rates, from our overall results. As we've said before, cash flow is the great equalizer.

我們不會被那些批評我們收入的人分心，他們從我們的整體業績中選擇性地選擇一兩個項目，例如養老金收益或稅率。正如我們之前所說，現金流是偉大的均衡器。

Click on the next button for chart 18.

單擊圖表 18 的下一步按鈕。

Now let's focus on revenue. This chart shows the impact on revenue of various actions we've taken in recent years to position ourselves for leadership in the post-PC era -- the network world of e-business.

現在讓我們關注收入。這張圖表顯示了我們近年來為在後 PC 時代（電子商務的網絡世界）中處於領先地位而採取的各種行動對收入的影響。

As you can see, our revenue stream has been reduced by $3.6 billion, by exiting businesses that did not match our strategic direction, including such areas as DRAM memory chips, the IBM global network, and our network hardware business.

如您所見，我們的收入來源減少了 36 億美元，原因是退出了與我們的戰略方向不符的業務，包括 DRAM 內存芯片、IBM 全球網絡和我們的網絡硬件業務等領域。

Exiting was bad for revenue, but was good for shareholders. We also been consistently reducing our exposure to the PC marketplace, including exiting the consumer retail channel. Again, bad for revenues, good for shareholders.

退出對收入不利，但對股東有利。我們還一直在減少對 PC 市場的曝光，包括退出消費者零售渠道。同樣，對收入不利，對股東有利。

In addition, revenues from server and storage products have declined slightly due to the incredible price performance improvements that we've delivered year after year.

此外，由於我們年復一年地實現了令人難以置信的性價比改進，服務器和存儲產品的收入略有下降。

For example, since 1997, the price per MIP in our high-end server product has actually declined by 75 percent, and our price per terabyte of our storage has declined 90 percent, delivering industry-leading performance at ever-lower prices has been key to our being number one in servers, and to protect the annuity revenue that we derive from our large, growing install base.

例如，自 1997 年以來，我們的高端服務器產品的每 MIP 價格實際上下降了 75%，我們的每 TB 存儲價格下降了 90%，以更低的價格提供行業領先的性能一直是關鍵為了我們在服務器中排名第一，並保護我們從龐大且不斷增長的安裝基礎中獲得的年金收入。

The profits and cash generated by these businesses have also been key to funding new growth areas. And we've been making significant investments in strategically important areas of our industry, including services, software and microelectronics.

這些業務產生的利潤和現金也是為新的增長領域提供資金的關鍵。我們一直在我們行業的重要戰略領域進行重大投資，包括服務、軟件和微電子。

Since 1997, we have grown our services business by $11 billion. And as you know, we are by far the world's largest IT services company.

自 1997 年以來，我們的服務業務增長了 110 億美元。如您所知，我們是迄今為止世界上最大的 IT 服務公司。

We've grown our software business by $2 billion, with major gains in middleware products that drive e-business.

我們的軟件業務增長了 20 億美元，在推動電子商務的中間件產品方面取得了重大進展。

And we've grown our custom chip business by $2 billion. And we're the world's number one custom chip vendor.

我們的定制芯片業務增長了 20 億美元。我們是世界排名第一的定制芯片供應商。

All of these actions are obviously good for revenues and good for shareholders. And these steps have helped position IBM for leadership in the rapidly evolving e-business world.

所有這些行動顯然對收入有利，對股東有利。這些步驟幫助 IBM 在快速發展的電子商務世界中處於領先地位。

It's clear from this chart that our primary focus has not been on chasing profitless revenues. And, as you'll see in the next chart, the actions we've taken to transform IBM also have had a dramatic impact on our profitability compared with our top competitors.

從這張圖表中可以清楚地看出，我們的主要關注點並不是追逐無利可圖的收入。而且，正如您將在下一張圖表中看到的那樣，與我們的頂級競爭對手相比，我們為改造 IBM 而採取的行動也對我們的盈利能力產生了巨大影響。

Turn to chart 19. This chart shows IBM's net income compared with the net income of seven of our largest key competitors -- in services, database software, Unix servers, PC servers and storage products. Five years ago, these seven leading competitors made about $9 billion combined, while IBM made about $6 billion, giving us a 40 percent share of the net profits.

轉到圖 19。這張圖表顯示了 IBM 的淨收入與我們七個最大的主要競爭對手的淨收入的比較——服務、數據庫軟件、Unix 服務器、PC 服務器和存儲產品。五年前，這七家主要競爭對手的總收入約為 90 億美元，而 IBM 的收入約為 60 億美元，我們占淨利潤的 40%。

However, last year we generated more profit than all seven of these competitors combined. This is certainly an endorsement of our business model.

然而，去年我們創造的利潤超過了所有這七個競爭對手的總和。這無疑是對我們商業模式的認可。

Some people have said that IBM did not fully participate in the IT boom of recent years. In fact, we did not chase the dot-come bubble, for leadership in the profitable segments of the industry.

有人說，IBM 沒有充分參與到這幾年的 IT 熱潮中。事實上，我們並沒有追逐網絡泡沫，而是為了在行業盈利領域佔據領先地位。

So let me summarize these last few comments.

所以讓我總結一下最後幾條評論。

Our EPS growth has increasingly come from operations supported by cash flow. We have significantly transformed IBM to focus on the strategic growth segments of our industry, and we are continuing to move to the profitable segments in the industry.

我們的每股收益增長越來越多地來自現金流支持的運營。我們已經對 IBM 進行了重大轉型，以專注於我們行業的戰略增長領域，並且我們將繼續轉向行業中的盈利領域。

Now, if you'll click on the next button, I'll wrap up.

現在，如果你點擊下一個按鈕，我就結束了。

Many of the earlier estimates for IBM and other technology companies called for a relatively rapid turnaround in the second half of this year. A number of broad economic indicators also are signaling some signs of improvement.

許多早期對 IBM 和其他科技公司的估計都要求在今年下半年實現相對快速的轉變。一些廣泛的經濟指標也顯示出一些改善的跡象。

However, the IT industry is always hit hard during economic downturns, and capacity utilization in our industry remains low. In this volatile marketplace it is extremely difficult to make predictions. And our crystal ball, obviously, has been no better than anyone else in the industry.

但是，IT行業在經濟低迷時期總是受到重創，行業產能利用率仍然很低。在這個動蕩的市場中，很難做出預測。顯然，我們的水晶球並不比業內其他任何人都好。

However, we believe that the recent changes to the 2002 revenue and EPS estimates for IBM better reflect the current realities of the marketplace. Based on where we stand today, we should be able to make these estimates.

然而，我們相信最近對 IBM 2002 年收入和每股收益估計的變化更好地反映了市場的當前現實。根據我們今天的立場，我們應該能夠做出這些估計。

We expect to hold or gain share in key segments of our industry as we move through the rest of the year and beyond. We're also committed to continue to reduce our cost and expense structures.

隨著我們在今年餘下時間及以後的發展，我們預計將在我們行業的關鍵領域持有或獲得份額。我們還致力於繼續降低我們的成本和費用結構。

And finally, we have the strength of our business model. We've just come through probably the toughest two or three quarters for the technology sector in a decade.

最後，我們擁有商業模式的優勢。我們剛剛度過了可能是十年來科技行業最艱難的兩三個季度。

Before IBM's transition, we might have lost billions in such an environment. But even in our seasonally smallest quarter, in a period of weak demand, particularly in our OEM business, we still made $1.7 billion.

在 IBM 轉型之前，我們可能在這樣的環境中損失了數十億美元。但即使在我們季節性最小的季度，在需求疲軟的時期，特別是在我們的 OEM 業務中，我們仍然賺了 17 億美元。

IBM remains very profitable, very well positioned for the future and continues to be the world's e-business leader.

IBM 仍然非常有利可圖，為未來做好準備，並繼續成為世界電子商務領導者。

Now,

現在，

and I will take your questions.

我會回答你的問題。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Now, if you'll all go to the next chart, you'll find an index of all of our slides that may be helpful during the Q&A.

現在，如果你們都轉到下一張圖表，您會發現我們所有幻燈片的索引，這可能對問答環節有所幫助。

Before I turn the call over to the operator to give you polling instructions, let me make my usual request -- that you refrain from multi-part questions, to give others some time. As always, we are on a tight schedule tonight.

在我把電話轉給接線員給你投票指示之前，讓我提出我一貫的要求——你不要提出多部分的問題，給別人一些時間。和往常一樣，我們今晚的日程安排很緊。

OK,

好的，

, let's get started.

， 讓我們開始吧。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

The floor is now open for questions. If you have a question or a comment, we ask you to please press one followed by four on your touch-tone telephone at this time.

現在可以提問了。如果您有問題或意見，我們請您此時在您的按鍵式電話上按 1，然後按 4。

If at any point you would like to remove yourself from the queue, you may do so by pressing the pound key.

如果您想在任何時候將自己從隊列中刪除，您可以通過按井號鍵來實現。

And we do ask all parties to please pick up their handsets while posing their questions to ensure optimum sound quality.

我們確實要求各方在提出問題時請拿起他們的手機，以確保最佳音質。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Our first question is coming from

我們的第一個問題來自

of

的

.

.

Yes, John. I guess you've had it with all these nitpickers with this presentation. You seem to be addressing them.

是的，約翰。我猜你已經對所有這些挑剔的人有了這個演示文稿。你似乎在向他們講話。

On the p600, its performance, is there any characterization of that performance between the high end and the mid range, low end?

在 p600 上，它的性能，在高端和中端、低端之間是否有任何性能表徵？

No, Gary. We performed well in both the high end, OK. We performed better in the high end, not quite as good in the low end.

不，加里。我們在兩個高端表現都很好，OK。我們在高端表現更好，在低端表現不那麼好。

So there's not a meaningful difference in the rate of decline in those areas?

那麼這些領域的下降速度沒有顯著差異嗎？

No.

不。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next question, please.

下一個問題，請。

Thank you. The next question is coming from Don Young of UBS Warburg.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自瑞銀華寶的 Don Young。

Yes. Thank you and good evening.

是的。謝謝你，晚上好。

John, first, I think it's a great that you're -- what you're doing in the hard disk drives to reduce the exposure to what I think is a less attractive business. But I get the sense that the losses in technology are more coming from other areas than the hard drive.

約翰，首先，我認為你這樣做很棒——你在硬盤驅動器中所做的事情是為了減少對我認為不太有吸引力的業務的曝光。但我感覺技術上的損失更多地來自其他領域，而不是硬盤驅動器。

And I'm wondering if that is accurate, and if there is the potential that IBM could go beyond the hard drive restructuring that's on the table and take other actions to reduce the exposure to the volatility in this sector?

我想知道這是否準確，IBM 是否有可能超越擺在桌面上的硬盤重組並採取其他行動來減少該行業波動的風險？

Thanks, Don. Well first, the loss of $275 million is about 50-50 between the technology or the microelectronics division and our HDD business. But the reasons are quite different.

謝謝，唐。首先，2.75 億美元的損失大約是技術或微電子部門與我們的 HDD 業務之間的 50-50。但原因卻大相徑庭。

The semiconductor piece of this is based on the fixed variable nature of that business. And you go back a number of quarters when the demand for semiconductors was quite good, the returns were excellent in our

這其中的半導體部分是基於該業務的固定可變性質。回溯幾個季度，當對半導體的需求相當不錯時，我們的回報非常好

business, or semiconductor business.

業務或半導體業務。

And so what we need to do there is really work on the turnaround, get our cost and expenses down to a point where we could live through this semiconductor slowdown.

因此，我們真正需要做的是扭轉局面，將我們的成本和開支降低到我們可以度過半導體放緩的程度。

And based on some recent news, yesterday, it looks like things are beginning to pick up, and we think that, as get our costs in line, we'll be able to get back to a very, very important segment within the IBM company.

根據最近的一些消息，昨天，情況似乎開始好轉，我們認為，隨著我們的成本控制，我們將能夠回到 IBM 公司內一個非常非常重要的部門.

Now on the HDD side, it's a bit different, as you've pointed out. In HDDs, the PC industry had slowed down. And this -- and there's been quite a bit of price pressure. And it's no secret that we've had some trouble with our server drive over the last really 12, 18 months.

正如您所指出的，現在在硬盤方面，它有點不同。在 HDD 方面，PC 行業已經放緩。這 - 並且有相當大的價格壓力。在過去的 12、18 個月裡，我們的服務器驅動器出現了一些問題，這已經不是什麼秘密了。

And so we think that this arrangement that we are working on with Hitachi will enable us to better A, scale, make us more competitive.

因此，我們認為我們與日立合作的這種安排將使我們能夠更好地擴大規模，使我們更具競爭力。

And, but we do believe that with our new

而且，但我們確實相信，我們的新

drive, which is our new server drive that is currently being qualified, that this business also could be a good business going forward, but not one that is part of our solutions and technology focus.

驅動器，這是我們目前正在合格的新服務器驅動器，這項業務也可能是一項很好的業務，但不是我們解決方案和技術重點的一部分。

John, is the -- when you talked about the comfort with the earnings expectations, what were you basing that on as far as hard disk drives? That would be -- the drag would be in there all year? Or you'd see a significant scaling back of that because of the restructuring?

約翰，當你談到對盈利預期的舒適度時，就硬盤驅動器而言，你的依據是什麼？那將是 - 阻力會在那裡一整年？或者您會因為重組而看到大幅縮減？

Or, you know, how does that go into your thinking on the earnings outlook?

或者，你知道，這對你的盈利前景有何影響？

Well, Don, first of all, I'm making that statement based on where we are today. No change to our current operations.

好吧，唐，首先，我是根據我們今天的情況發表這個聲明的。我們目前的業務沒有變化。

However, given the negotiations that we're participating in with Hitachi, that may change going forward, depending on how we come out of those negotiations.

然而，鑑於我們正在與日立參與的談判，這可能會在未來發生變化，這取決於我們如何從這些談判中走出來。

So, but to answer your question, the comment I made on the going forward statement assumes business as usual.

所以，但為了回答你的問題，我對未來聲明的評論假設一切照常。

Great. Thank you, John.

偉大的。謝謝你，約翰。

Thanks, Don. Next question, please.

謝謝，唐。下一個問題，請。

Thank you. The next question is coming from Laura Conigliaro of Goldman Sachs.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自高盛的 Laura Conigliaro。

Yeah. You -- back to outsourcing. Outsourcing, you said, I think you said it was 40 percent of your revenues.

是的。你——回到外包。外包，你說，我想你說這是你收入的 40%。

What was it of your bookings? And I think you also had indicated maybe last quarter that it was much higher in bookings than it was in revenues. So if you can give us that this quarter, and then compare it to last year.

你的預訂是什麼？而且我認為您可能在上個季度也表示預訂量遠高於收入。因此，如果您可以在本季度向我們提供該信息，然後將其與去年進行比較。

And what is the book value that you're carrying, your HDD business at at this point? And I guess if you can give us a sense as to whether or not we should see a gain or a loss on that.

您目前的 HDD 業務的賬面價值是多少？我想你是否可以讓我們了解我們是否應該看到收益或損失。

Let me take the second part of your question first, Laura.

勞拉，讓我先回答你問題的第二部分。

We are currently working with Hitachi on what might be the manufacturing strategy for the new venture. So I want to finish that negotiation first, and then I'll come back to you as to what may or may not happen.

我們目前正在與日立合作，制定新合資企業的製造戰略。所以我想先完成那次談判，然後我會再告訴你什麼可能發生或可能不會發生。

And as we go through those negotiations, we will -- once we have news or once we finalize something, we will announce that.

當我們進行這些談判時，我們將 - 一旦我們有消息或一旦我們完成某些事情，我們將宣布這一點。

On the first part of your question,

在你問題的第一部分，

turning pages over here to get you the percentage. But before he gives you the percentage, let me make the following comments.

在這裡翻頁以獲得百分比。但在他給你百分比之前，讓我做以下評論。

The strategic outsourcing part of our business is the business that seems to be doing -- that is doing, not seems to be doing -- that is doing the best in our services mix of businesses. And --- what,

我們業務的戰略外包部分是似乎正在做的業務——正在做，似乎沒有做——在我們的業務服務組合中做得最好。還有——什麼，

, is that 50 percent?

，那是百分之五十嗎？

The signings for outsourcing were about two-thirds.

外包簽約約三分之二。

Two-thirds. And when we were short, and where we missed in the quarter, was in our consulting or BIS signings.

三分之二。當我們做空時，我們在本季度錯過的地方是我們的諮詢或 BIS 簽約。

And so, these -- the signings in strategic outsourcing, as you know, are longer-term contracts. So that was to the point I made in my prepared remarks, that when we do our math on feathering those signings in going out over the next couple of quarters, we believe that we could see double-digit growth by the end of the year.

因此，如您所知，這些戰略外包的簽約是長期合同。這就是我在準備好的講話中所說的一點，當我們對未來幾個季度的這些引援進行計算時，我們相信到今年年底我們可以看到兩位數的增長。

Now, we are also assuming in that, in that statement, or in that outlook that we have a very good second quarter signings. Our backlog that we're working on -- and, Laura, that's the list of customers that we're in negotiations with to close in the second quarter -- is very, very strong.

現在，我們也假設在那個聲明中，或者在那個前景中，我們有一個非常好的第二季度引援。我們正在處理的積壓訂單 - 勞拉，這是我們正在與第二季度結束談判的客戶名單 - 非常非常強大。

So we think we could have -- we had a good fourth quarter on signings, roughly 15 plus billion, a good first quarter on signings, 15 plus billion, up 50 percent or so. And we're shooting to have a good second quarter signings. And therefore, we should have a good back end of the year in services.

所以我們認為我們可以 - 我們在簽約方面有一個不錯的第四季度，大約 15 多億，第一季度的簽約非常好，超過 15 億，增長了 50% 左右。而且我們希望在第二季度有一個很好的引援。因此，我們應該在服務方面有一個良好的年底。

Now, ...

現在， ...

John, ...

約翰， ...

... the thing that we are, that we are working on is we need to get our BIS or consultant signings up. And that will bode even better for us going forward.

...我們正在做的事情是，我們需要讓我們的 BIS 或顧問簽約。這對我們未來的發展來說是個好兆頭。

John.

約翰。

Yes.

是的。

Just a question. As far as the good signings that you referred to in the June quarter, based on what you see in the pipeline, should we be expecting something that's flat with, more or less flattish with what we just saw this quarter?

就一個問題。至於您在 6 月季度提到的良好簽約，根據您在管道中看到的情況，我們是否應該期待與我們本季度剛剛看到的情況持平，或多或少持平？

Yeah, maybe up a little bit.

是的，可能會漲一點。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next question, please.

下一個問題，請。

Thank you. The next question is coming from Tony Sacconaghi of Sanford Bernstein.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自 Sanford Bernstein 的 Tony Sacconaghi。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

John, just probing a little bit more on the technology group, you mentioned that about half of the operating profit loss was from HDDs and half was from microelectronics.

約翰，只是對技術組進行了更多探討，您提到大約一半的營業利潤損失來自硬盤驅動器，一半來自微電子。

That business was down about 25 percent sequentially in revenues, and yet the operating profit was slightly improved. And intellectual property gains were also down sequentially.

該業務的收入環比下降了約 25%，但營業利潤略有改善。知識產權收益也環比下降。

So, A, can you help us understand why there was some improvement in that business? And was it HDDs or technologies that seemed to improve, despite the lower revenue base?

那麼，A，您能幫助我們了解為什麼該業務會有所改善嗎？儘管收入基礎較低，但似乎是硬盤驅動器或技術有所改進？

And then secondly, why over the course of the last week was the technology group's operating profit, you know, another $75 or $80 million lower than you had suggested last week?

其次，為什麼上週科技集團的營業利潤比你上周建議的低 75 美元或 8000 萬美元？

OK. Thanks, Tony.

好的。謝謝，托尼。

First, the improvement sequentially came primarily from storage technology, the technology group. And this goes back to what I said in our last call, Tony. That we had these three main drives that we needed to ship in volume. And as I mentioned in my remarks, you know, we did ship these new products.

首先，順序的改進主要來自存儲技術，即技術組。這可以追溯到我在上次通話中所說的，托尼。我們有這三個需要大量出貨的主要驅動器。正如我在講話中提到的，你知道，我們確實發布了這些新產品。

However, we were short in volume in HDDs, but we did ship the new products and it did help improve the loss on a sequential basis from the fourth quarter of last year in storage technology.

然而，我們的 HDD 數量不足，但我們確實推出了新產品，這確實有助於改善去年第四季度在存儲技術方面的連續虧損。

And as far as technology group, it was a little bit better in the first quarter, based on some of the work we've been doing on trying to get costs out. But it was not -- it was not quite as good as we did in the HDD business, on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

就技術集團而言，第一季度的情況要好一些，這是基於我們一直在努力降低成本的一些工作。但事實並非如此——按季度計算，它不如我們在 HDD 業務中所做的那麼好。

Now, your second part of your question was what, Tony?

現在，你的問題的第二部分是什麼，托尼？

I was just inquiring on -- you had said it would be about $200 million, and it was about $75 million worse than you expected last week. I'm just curious if there was anything in there.

我只是在詢問——你說這將是大約 2 億美元，這比你上週的預期低了大約 7500 萬美元。我只是好奇里面有沒有什麼東西。

No, it was -- that was a very preliminary number. We saw the revenue shortfalls. We felt that we needed to go out and make the announcement that we made. And we were looking at where we saw ourselves coming up short. We came up short in the technology group, and at that time that's what we knew, and so that's what we announced.

不，它是——這是一個非常初步的數字。我們看到了收入短缺。我們覺得我們需要出去宣布我們所做的宣布。我們正在尋找我們發現自己不足的地方。我們在技術組中出現了短缺，當時這是我們所知道的，所以這就是我們宣布的。

Thanks, Tony.

謝謝，托尼。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Next question, please.

下一個問題，請。

Thank you. The next question is coming from

謝謝你。下一個問題來自

Weber of SG Cowen.

SG Cowen 的韋伯。

Yes. I have a couple of questions.

是的。我有一些問題。

One, you -- John, you said something about assessing your capacity depending on how this HDD deal works out. Does that imply that you're contemplating or at least there's a possibility of some significant write-off somewhere along the line?

一，你——約翰，你說過要根據硬盤交易的結果來評估你的容量。這是否意味著您正在考慮或至少有可能在沿線某處進行一些重大註銷？

And then my second question is, when I look at these numbers, it's sort of the seasonality and the year-over-year stuff. It would appear to me that the -- that your demand equation is sort of bumping along the bottom rather than getting worse.

然後我的第二個問題是，當我查看這些數字時，它有點像季節性和同比數據。在我看來，你的需求方程有點像底部碰撞而不是變得更糟。

Could you just give me your feeling on how it looks?

你能告訴我你對它的感覺嗎？

OK. On the capacity statement, as I mentioned a moment ago, we are still working with Hitachi, OK, on what the manufacturing strategy might look like, and what capacity will be required for the joint venture. And until we work through some of those issues, Steve, I need to kind of wait on that. And once we know something, we will let you know.

好的。關於產能聲明，正如我剛才提到的，我們仍在與日立公司合作，確定製造戰略可能是什麼樣的，以及合資企業需要什麼樣的產能。在我們解決其中一些問題之前，史蒂夫，我需要等待。一旦我們知道一些事情，我們就會讓你知道。

But what would be a timetable on concluding this deal, and when it might become effective?

但達成這筆交易的時間表是什麼，何時生效？

Well, we were hoping to have definitive agreements by the end of the second quarter. So that's our goal.

好吧，我們希望在第二季度末之前達成最終協議。這就是我們的目標。

You know, there's a lot to do between now and then. But we do have that as a goal. And depending on how the negotiations go will depend on whether or not we're able to get it done by the second quarter.

你知道，從現在到那時，有很多事情要做。但我們確實有這個目標。取決於談判的進展情況，取決於我們是否能夠在第二季度完成。

But it is not -- you know, we do have our discussion that we'll have on May 15th. And if there are any updates at that time, we will share them with you. If there's not, if we're still in the middle of negotiations, we'll have to wait until we get those concluded.

但事實並非如此——你知道，我們確實會在 5 月 15 日進行討論。如果當時有任何更新，我們將與您分享。如果沒有，如果我們仍在談判中，我們將不得不等到談判結束。

If you have a deal by the end of Q2, will you -- does that mean the joint venture starts? Or will there be another lag?

如果你在第二季度末達成協議，你會 - 這是否意味著合資企業開始了？還是會有另一個滯後？

There could be another lag. This is going to take some kind to complete. It's a very complex deal. There are a lot of variables that we're dealing with.

可能還有另一個滯後。這需要某種方式來完成。這是一個非常複雜的交易。我們正在處理很多變量。

I mean, this is important to us in that, A, that we are still going to be a participant, roughly 30 percent. We still need server drives and drives for our PC businesses. And this is very critical to our success going forward, so we need to make sure we work through all these things carefully.

我的意思是，這對我們很重要，因為我們仍將成為參與者，大約 30%。我們的 PC 業務仍然需要服務器驅動器和驅動器。這對我們未來的成功至關重要，所以我們需要確保我們仔細處理所有這些事情。

And we're not going to try to just get it done by a given date. We're going to make sure we get the right agreement between Hitachi and ourselves.

我們不會試圖在給定的日期之前完成它。我們將確保我們在日立和我們之間達成正確的協議。

But quite frankly, it's been going very well. You know the companies, we know each other well. They are a big supplier to us in our -- for components and whatnot. So the two companies know each other very well. And I think we will get this done as quickly as possible.

但坦率地說，進展非常順利。你了解這些公司，我們彼此很了解。他們是我們的大供應商 - 組件和諸如此類的東西。所以兩家公司非常了解。我認為我們會盡快完成這項工作。

OK. The second part of my question, your feeling about the -- how you would characterize the demand equation?

好的。我的問題的第二部分，你對 - 你如何描述需求方程的感覺？

Well, yes. I made the comment in my closing remarks that I feel that the current estimates better reflect what's happening in the information technology sector.

嗯，是。我在結束語中發表評論說，我認為目前的估計更好地反映了信息技術領域正在發生的事情。

And so, I feel that, yes, there are a number of areas where we have seen the declines, they're not getting any worse, OK, that we are stabilizing.

所以，我覺得，是的，我們已經看到了一些下降的領域，它們並沒有變得更糟，好吧，我們正在企穩。

And as I said in my closing remarks, you know, we think the second half of the year, given what we're seeing in consumer spending, given what we're seeing as we talk to our customers, could be a, you know, it could look like a pretty good second half.

正如我在閉幕詞中所說，你知道，鑑於我們在消費者支出中看到的情況，鑑於我們在與客戶交談時看到的情況，我們認為下半年可能是，下半場看起來不錯。

Thank you. Next question.

謝謝你。下一個問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

Thank you. The next question is coming from Jay Stevens of Buckingham Research.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自白金漢研究所的傑伊史蒂文斯。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

John, could you put a little more color on backlog in services and how we should look at that? What goes into backlog?

約翰，您能否為積壓的服務以及我們應該如何看待它多加一點顏色？什麼進入積壓？

Because the number is almost three times the annual run rate. And yet, services revenue has declined two quarters in a row. So help us understand backlog relative to revenue.

因為這個數字幾乎是年運行率的三倍。然而，服務收入連續兩個季度下降。因此，請幫助我們了解與收入相關的積壓工作。

I'd ask you to go back to the chart that we put in the presentation, Jay. And I'll give a little bit more color to that.

傑伊，我想請你回到我們在演示文稿中放置的圖表。我會給它更多的顏色。

We have -- there are a number of things that take place. It's the length of the contract, and back to Laura's question, you know, how much of our backlog are we adding strategic outsourcing, which have the longest length?

我們有——發生了很多事情。這是合同的長度，回到勞拉的問題，你知道，我們要添加多少積壓的戰略外包，哪些是最長的？

Now, we like those contracts, because it really builds our annuity stream, and they're long-term contracts, and that's good. But they are often longer in length.

現在，我們喜歡這些合同，因為它確實建立了我們的年金流，而且它們是長期合同，這很好。但它們的長度通常更長。

The BIS contracts are shorter term. And they are the contracts that, where we're disappointed in the quarter in our signings.

BIS 合同的期限較短。他們是我們在本季度的簽約中感到失望的合同。

We were very happy with our total signings, and pleased with our total signings, but we would have liked to have seen more consulting contract signing. So they are the things that you need to take into consideration as you look out and you try to track signings to revenue.

我們對我們的總簽約感到非常滿意，並對我們的總簽約感到滿意，但我們希望看到更多的諮詢合同簽約。因此，當您注意並嘗試跟踪簽約收入時，它們是您需要考慮的事情。

And I tried to help by making the comments that, based on what we know today, and based on what we think we're going to be able to do in the second quarter relative to signings, that we think we could get to double digits by the end of the year.

我試圖通過發表評論來提供幫助到今年年底。

Thank you, Jay. I think we have time for one more question.

謝謝你，傑。我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Thank you. Our last question is coming from Daniel Kunstler of J.P. Morgan.

謝謝你。我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Daniel Kunstler。

Thanks. Good afternoon. Just a couple of little things.

謝謝。下午好。只是幾件小事。

In the press release you refer to some product transitions which may have weighed down on parts of the service business, but not necessarily including mainframe. And with the introduction of the z800, I was wondering if there had been some kind of a transition impact there.

在新聞稿中，您提到了一些可能對部分服務業務造成壓力的產品轉換，但不一定包括大型機。隨著 z800 的推出，我想知道那裡是否產生了某種過渡影響。

And secondly, with regard to your improvements in market share, I was wondering if there's some specific data that you were referring to or are you tallying up the various announcements which have already been made by competitors, and the estimates of analysts for those who have not yet announced?

其次，關於您在市場份額方面的改進，我想知道您是否提到了一些具體數據，或者您是否在統計競爭對手已經發布的各種公告，以及分析師對那些已經發布的人的估計還沒公佈？

OK. Relative to the z800, yes. There was a product transition stall, and -- but it was primarily in Europe. We did quite well with the z800 in the U.S., but there was a stall in Europe. And we think that actually that could help our second quarter numbers for the mainframe.

好的。相對於z800，是的。有一個產品過渡階段，而且——但主要是在歐洲。我們在美國的 z800 做得很好，但在歐洲有一個攤位。我們認為這實際上可以幫助我們第二季度的大型機數據。

Relative to the share statements, Daniel, we are -- we are basically using First Call numbers for many of the statements that we've made. And in some cases, some of our competitors have already announced or pre-announced. And so we're kind of using the summation of all that information to make the statements that we're making.

相對於份額聲明，丹尼爾，我們基本上是在我們所做的許多聲明中使用第一個電話號碼。在某些情況下，我們的一些競爭對手已經宣布或預先宣布。所以我們有點使用所有這些信息的總和來做出我們正在做的陳述。

But quite frankly, as we look forward, I mean that is our number one goal in this difficult IT sector at this point in time, is to continue to gain share.

但坦率地說，正如我們所期待的那樣，我的意思是，在這個困難的 IT 領域，我們的首要目標是繼續獲得份額。

And then when things pick up, we think we are going to be very well positioned, given the fact that, you know, we're number one in services. We're number one in WebSphere. And we're number one in servers.

然後當事情好轉時，我們認為我們將處於非常有利的位置，因為您知道，我們在服務方面排名第一。我們在 WebSphere 中排名第一。我們在服務器方面排名第一。

You know, we're fighting to be number one in database and number one in custom logic.

你知道，我們正在努力成為數據庫第一名和自定義邏輯第一名。

And given that position, and given the fact that we believe things will begin to pick up, as some of the estimates have suggested, with our strong cash flows and good earnings, we have the right strategy and we think going forward we're on the strategy. And now it's just a question of continuing to gain share, and we'll do quite well when this economy picks up.

鑑於這一立場，鑑於我們相信事情將開始好轉，正如一些估計所暗示的那樣，憑藉我們強勁的現金流和良好的收益，我們擁有正確的戰略，我們認為未來我們將繼續前進策略。現在這只是繼續獲得份額的問題，當經濟復甦時，我們會做得很好。

OK. Thank you, Daniel. And thank you all for your participation.

好的。謝謝你，丹尼爾。並感謝大家的參與。

That concludes our conference call.

我們的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路，並度過美好的一天。

END

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