Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace First Quarter 2021 Results. My name is Shelby, and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2021 年第一季業績說明會。我是 Shelby，將擔任今天的會議接線員。提醒各位，今天的會議將錄音，以供日後重播。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

現在我想把會議交給今天的主持人——投資人關係副總裁 Paul Luther。請開始。

Thank you, Shelby. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace First Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer; Tolga Oal, Co-Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John, Tolga and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session.

謝謝你，Shelby。各位早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2021 年第一季業績電話會議。我與執行董事長暨共同執行長 John Plant、共同執行長 Tolga Oal，以及執行副總裁暨財務長 Ken Giacobbe 一同出席。在 John、Tolga 與 Ken 發表談話後，我們將進行問答環節。

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

提醒各位，今天的討論將包含與未來事件及預期相關的前瞻性陳述。可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測出現重大差異的因素，已列於今日簡報與盈餘新聞稿，以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件中。

In addition, we've included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation.

此外，我們在討論中也包含部分非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表，可在今日新聞稿及今日簡報的附錄中找到。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

那麼，我想把電話交給 John。

Thanks, PT. Good morning, and welcome to the call. Similar to last quarter, I will give an overview of Howmet's first quarter performance, then pass to Tolga, who will talk to our markets, and then Ken will provide further financial detail. I'll return to the call to talk to guidance for the second quarter and the full year 2021.

謝謝，PT。各位早安，歡迎參加本次電話會議。與上季類似，我將先概述 Howmet 第一季的表現，接著交給 Tolga 談談我們的市場，然後由 Ken 提供更進一步的財務細節。我會再回到電話會議，說明第二季與 2021 全年的財測指引。

Please move to Slide 4. Let me start with some commentary on the first quarter. Revenue was $1.2 billion and in line with expectations while EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share exceeded expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $275 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was a healthy 22.7%, similar to the fourth quarter of 2020. Earnings per share, excluding special items, was $0.22, which was ahead of expectations and ahead of Q4 2020.

請翻到投影片第 4 頁。我先就第一季做一些評論。營收為 12 億美元，符合預期；而 EBITDA、EBITDA 利潤率與每股盈餘均優於預期。調整後 EBITDA 為 2.75 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為健康的 22.7%，與 2020 年第四季相近。排除特殊項目後的每股盈餘為 0.22 美元，優於預期，也高於 2020 年第四季。

Historically, Q1 has been a significant cash outflow for the company. However, with improved margins and enhanced working capital control, the outcome has noticeably improved. This will be followed by cash generation in quarters 2, 3 and 4.

歷來第一季對公司而言通常是顯著的現金流出期。然而，隨著利潤率改善與營運資金控管加強，結果已明顯改善。接下來在第 2、3、4 季將轉為現金創造。

Lastly, in the first quarter, we focused on de-leveraging, completing the early redemption of the 2021 notes at par for approximately $360 million of cash in -- using cash in hand. The resulting quarter end cash balance was $1.24 billion. Moreover, on May 3, we completed the early redemption of the $476 million of notes due in 2022 for approximately $500 million, inclusive of the accrued interest and fees. Both transactions were completed with cash on hand.

最後，在第一季我們聚焦於去槓桿，使用手上現金以面額提前贖回 2021 年到期票據，動用現金約 3.6 億美元。期末現金餘額因此為 12.4 億美元。此外，我們於 5 月 3 日完成提前贖回 2022 年到期、金額 4.76 億美元的票據，約支付 5 億美元，包含應計利息與費用。兩筆交易皆以手上現金完成。

Year-to-date, we have reduced debt by approximately $840 million, which reduces the 2021 interest expense by $38 million and $47 million on a run rate basis. In addition, in 2022, there will be a carryover interest savings of $10 million.

年初至今，我們已將負債降低約 8.4 億美元，使 2021 年利息費用減少 3,800 萬美元，並以年化基礎計算可減少 4,700 萬美元。此外，2022 年還將有 1,000 萬美元的利息節省延續效益。

Now let's move to markets and performance on Slide 5. Q1 revenue was the same as the Q2 to Q4 2020 average and in line with our expectations. On a year-over-year basis, commercial aerospace was down 52%, driven by the lingering effects of customer inventory reductions and fundamentally lower builds, starting with the Boeing MAX. Commercial aerospace continues to represent 40% of the total revenue of the company, compared to pre-COVID levels of 60%. The commercial aerospace decline is partially offset by continued strength in our other markets. Defense aerospace was up 12% year-over-year, driven by the Joint Strike Fighter new builds and spares. The industrial gas turbine business continues to grow and was up 35% year-over-year, also driven by new builds and spares.

現在請看投影片第 5 頁的市場與表現。第一季營收與 2020 年第 2 至第 4 季的平均水準相同，並符合我們的預期。以年對年來看，商用航太下滑 52%，主要受客戶去化庫存的延續影響，以及整體產量根本性降低所致，首先是波音 MAX。商用航太目前仍占公司總營收的 40%，相較於 COVID 前的 60% 已下降。商用航太的下滑部分被其他市場的持續強勁所抵銷。國防航太年對年成長 12%，由聯合打擊戰鬥機（Joint Strike Fighter）的新造與備品需求帶動。工業燃氣渦輪（IGT）業務持續成長，年對年成長 35%，同樣由新造與備品帶動。

Lastly, the commercial transportation business was up 15% year-over-year, despite customer supply chain constraints. Although truck demand is very strong, our customers managed through supply chain issues with several commodities, which are in short supply, including semiconductors, tires and glass, to name just a few. We are working closely with our customers to meet demand, which is showing some interruptions.

最後，儘管客戶供應鏈受限，商用運輸業務年對年仍成長 15%。雖然卡車需求非常強勁，但我們的客戶因多項供應鏈問題而進行調度，若干商品供應短缺，包括半導體、輪胎與玻璃等僅舉數例。我們正與客戶密切合作以滿足需求，但需求供應出現一些中斷。

At the bottom of the slide, you can see the progress on price, cost reduction and cash management. Price increases are up year-over-year and continue to be in line with expectations. Structural cost reductions are also in line with expectations, with a $61 million year-over-year benefit. Segment decremental margins continue to be good at 27%, driven by price, variable cost flexing and fixed cost management. CapEx was $55 million in the quarter and continues to be less than depreciation and amortization, resulting in a net source of cash.

在投影片底部，您可以看到在價格、成本降低與現金管理方面的進展。價格調升年對年增加，且持續符合預期。結構性成本降低也符合預期，年對年帶來 6,100 萬美元的效益。各事業部的遞減利潤率（decremental margins）仍維持良好、為 27%，主要由價格、變動成本彈性調整與固定成本管理所驅動。本季資本支出為 5,500 萬美元，且持續低於折舊與攤銷，因此形成淨現金來源。

Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 22.7% and consistent with Q4 2020 on approximately $30 million of less revenue. Q1 revenue of $1.2 billion was consistent with the Q4 -- Q2 to Q4 2020 average. You can see the benefit of our actions since the start of the pandemic with a 300 basis point EBITDA margin expansion while revenue was approximately $45 million less than the same period, so good year-on-year performance.

本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 22.7%，在營收少約 3,000 萬美元的情況下，仍與 2020 年第四季一致。第一季 12 億美元的營收與 2020 年第 2 至第 4 季的平均水準一致。您可以看到自疫情開始以來我們採取行動所帶來的效益：在營收較去年同期少約 4,500 萬美元的情況下，EBITDA 利潤率仍擴張 300 個基點，年對年表現良好。

Now let me turn it over to Tolga to give an overview of the markets.

現在我把時間交給 Tolga，請他概述市場情況。

Thank you, John. Please move to Slide 7. Now to year-over-year revenue performance. Q1 revenue was down 26%, driven by commercial aerospace, which continues to represent approximately 40% of total revenue in the quarter. Commercial aerospace was down 52% year-over-year, in line with our projections, as we continue to see customer inventory corrections as expected.

謝謝你，John。請翻到投影片第 7 頁。接著看年對年營收表現。第一季營收下滑 26%，主要由商用航太所致；商用航太在本季仍約占總營收的 40%。商用航太年對年下滑 52%，符合我們的預測，因為我們如預期持續看到客戶庫存修正。

Defense aerospace continues to grow and was up 12% in Q1 as we are on a diverse set of programs, with the Joint Strike Fighter being approximately 40% of the total defense business. Commercial transportation, which impacts both the Forged Wheels and Fastening Systems segments, was up 15% year-over-year with a very strong market demand. Finally, the industrial and other markets, which consists of IGT, oil and gas and general industrial, was up 1%. IGT, which makes up approximately 45% of this market, continues to be strong and was up a healthy 35% year-over-year.

國防航太持續成長，第一季成長 12%，因我們參與多元的專案組合，其中聯合打擊戰鬥機約占整體國防業務的 40%。商用運輸市場影響鍛造輪圈（Forged Wheels）與緊固系統（Fastening Systems）兩個事業部，年對年成長 15%，市場需求非常強勁。最後，工業及其他市場（包含 IGT、油氣與一般工業）年對年成長 1%。其中 IGT 約占該市場的 45%，持續強勁，年對年健康成長 35%。

I will now turn it over to Ken to give a more detailed view of the financials.

我現在把時間交給 Ken，請他更詳細說明財務狀況。

Thank you, Tolga, and good morning, everyone. Now let's move to Slide 8 for the segment results. As expected, Engine Products year-over-year revenue was down 32% in the first quarter. Commercial aerospace was down 55%, driven by customer inventory corrections and reduced demand for spares. Commercial aerospace was partially offset by a year-over-year increase of 18% in defense aerospace and a 35% increase in IGT. IGT continues to be strong, and we will continue to make investments in this business as demand has been increasing for cleaner energy. Decremental margins for engines were 26% for the quarter as segment operating profit margin was approximately 19%. In the appendix of the presentation, we have provided a schedule which shows each segment's decremental margins for Q3 2020 through Q1 2021.

謝謝你，Tolga，各位早安。現在請看投影片第 8 頁的事業部門結果。如預期，發動機產品（Engine Products）第一季年對年營收下滑 32%。商用航太下滑 55%，主要由客戶庫存修正及備品需求下降所致。商用航太的下滑部分被國防航太年對年成長 18%以及 IGT 成長 35%所抵銷。IGT 持續強勁，且隨著對更潔淨能源的需求增加，我們將持續投資此業務。本季發動機業務的遞減利潤率為 26%，事業部營業利益率約為 19%。在簡報附錄中，我們提供了一份明細表，顯示各事業部自 2020 年第三季至 2021 年第一季的遞減利潤率。

Now let's move to Fastening Systems on Slide 9. Also as expected, Fastening Systems year-over-year revenue was down 29% in the first quarter. Commercial aerospace was down 42%. Like the engine segment, we continue to experience inventory corrections in the commercial aerospace market. The industrial and commercial transportation markets were down 2% year-over-year, but up 19% sequentially. Decremental margins for Fastening Systems were 45% for the first quarter as furloughed workers returned to work.

現在請看投影片第 9 頁的緊固系統（Fastening Systems）。同樣如預期，緊固系統第一季年對年營收下滑 29%。商用航太下滑 42%。與發動機事業部相同，我們在商用航太市場仍持續經歷庫存修正。工業與商用運輸市場年對年下滑 2%，但較前一季成長 19%。本季緊固系統的遞減利潤率為 45%，因先前休假（furlough）的員工返回工作。

Please move to Slide 10 to review Engineered Structures. For Engineered Structures, year-over-year revenue was down 36% in the first quarter. Commercial aerospace was down 57%, driven by customer inventory corrections and production declines for the 787 and 737 MAX. Commercial aerospace was partially offset by a 10% year-over-year increase in defense aerospace. Decremental margins for Engineered Structures were 18% for the quarter, compared to 24% in Q4.

請翻到投影片第 10 頁以檢視工程結構（Engineered Structures）。工程結構第一季年對年營收下滑 36%。商用航太下滑 57%，主要由客戶庫存修正以及 787 與 737 MAX 產量下滑所致。商用航太的下滑部分被國防航太年對年成長 10%所抵銷。本季工程結構的遞減利潤率為 18%，相較於第四季的 24%。

Lastly, please move to Slide 11 for Forged Wheels. Forged Wheels revenue increased 19% year-over-year despite customer supply chain constraints. Forged Wheels revenue grew faster than the overall market, in part due to Howmet's new innovative 39-pound wheel. Segment operating profit margin was another record at almost 31% as year-over-year incremental margins were 56%. The improved margin was driven by continued cost management and maximizing production in low-cost countries.

最後，請翻到第 11 頁，鍛造輪圈（Forged Wheels）。儘管客戶供應鏈受限，鍛造輪圈營收仍年增 19%。鍛造輪圈營收成長快於整體市場，部分原因是 Howmet 推出創新的 39 磅新輪圈。部門營業利益率再創新高，接近 31%，因年增增量利潤率為 56%。利潤率改善主要來自持續的成本管理，以及在低成本國家最大化產能。

Please move to Slide 12. We continue to focus on improving our capital structure and liquidity. First, we completed 2 early redemptions of our bonds. The first transaction was on January 15. We used cash on hand to complete the early redemption at par of the 2021 bonds due in April 2021. By paying down the bonds 3 months early at no additional cost, we saved $5 million of interest.

請翻到第 12 頁。我們持續聚焦於改善資本結構與流動性。首先，我們完成了兩筆債券的提前贖回。第一筆交易在 1 月 15 日進行。我們使用手頭現金，以面值提前贖回原定於 2021 年 4 月到期的 2021 年債券。透過在不增加任何成本的情況下提前 3 個月償還債券，我們節省了 500 萬美元利息。

The second transaction was earlier this week on May 3. We used cash on hand to complete the early redemption of the bonds that are due in February 2022. The bonds were redeemed at a cost of approximately $500 million. As a result, the interest costs have been reduced by approximately $47 million [annually] (corrected by company after the call). Moreover, as John has mentioned, in 2022, we'll get an incremental $10 million of carryover interest savings. Gross debt stands at $4.2 billion. All debt is unsecured, and the next maturity is in 2024. Finally, our $1 billion revolver remains undrawn.

第二筆交易是在本週稍早的 5 月 3 日。我們使用手頭現金，完成對原定於 2022 年 2 月到期債券的提前贖回。該債券以約 5 億美元的成本贖回。因此，利息成本約減少 4,700 萬美元[每年]（公司於電話會議後更正）。此外，如 John 所提到，2022 年我們將額外獲得 1,000 萬美元的結轉利息節省。總負債為 42 億美元。所有債務均為無擔保，下一個到期日在 2024 年。最後，我們 10 億美元的循環信貸額度（revolver）仍未動用。

Before I turn it back to John to discuss the 2021 guidance, I would point out that there's a slide in the appendix that covers special items in the quarter. Special items for the quarter were a charge for approximately $16 million after tax, and the charge was primarily related to 3 items: first, we had fire costs at 2 of our plants of $7 million; second, we had an impairment of assets associated with an agreement to sell a small manufacturing business in France of $4 million; and third, we had a pension settlement charge in the U.S. of $3 million.

在我把話交回給 John 討論 2021 年指引之前，我想指出附錄中有一張投影片涵蓋本季的特殊項目。本季特殊項目為稅後約 1,600 萬美元的費用，主要與三項事項相關：第一，我們兩座工廠的火災成本為 700 萬美元；第二，與一項出售法國小型製造業務的協議相關的資產減損為 400 萬美元；第三，美國的退休金結算費用為 300 萬美元。

Finally, we continue to work on reducing legacy liabilities and improving asset returns for the pension plan. I would highlight 2 significant items: first, we had announced a planned administration change of certain prescription drug benefits that is expected to reduce cost and reduce our OPEB liability by approximately 20% or $39 million; second, we are benefiting from pension asset investment returns of over 13% that we realized in 2020. The combination of the asset returns and the liability reduction have decreased annual pension and OPEB expense by 37% or $13 million annually.

最後，我們持續致力於降低歷史遺留負債並提升退休金計畫的資產報酬。我想強調兩項重要事項：第一，我們已宣布對特定處方藥福利進行計畫管理變更，預期可降低成本，並將我們的 OPEB 負債降低約 20% 或 3,900 萬美元；第二，我們受惠於 2020 年實現超過 13% 的退休金資產投資報酬。資產報酬與負債降低的組合，使年度退休金與 OPEB 費用降低 37%，約每年 1,300 萬美元。

So now let me turn it back over to John.

那麼現在我把話交回給 John。

Thanks, Ken. Let me move to Slide 13 for the Q2 and annual guidance. First, the good news is that we're another quarter along towards the recovery of the commercial aerospace market. This will go a long way in helping profitability and complementing the growth and solidity at the defense aerospace, IGT and commercial transportation markets.

謝謝，Ken。讓我翻到第 13 頁，說明第二季與全年指引。首先，好消息是我們又往商用航太市場復甦邁進了一個季度。這將大幅有助於提升獲利能力，並與國防航太、IGT 以及商用運輸市場的成長與穩健表現相互補強。

There are a series of leading indicators that are showing very well for us: numbers of flight inquiries, bookings of flights, hotels and car rentals, and we also note the increase in U.S.A. TSA numbers, flight takeoffs, particularly in the U.S. and China. Europe remains somewhat muted given the effects of the pandemic and slower implementation of COVID vaccines. All of this should begin to help airlines with aircraft production, particularly of narrow-body aircraft. We note that the demand for wide-body aircraft probably may not reappear until mid-2022 or even into 2023.

有一系列領先指標對我們而言表現非常好：航班查詢量、航班訂位、飯店與租車訂單數，我們也注意到美國 TSA 旅客安檢人數、航班起飛架次的增加，尤其是在美國與中國。由於疫情影響以及 COVID 疫苗施打推行較慢，歐洲仍相對低迷。這些因素應開始協助航空公司提升飛機產量，特別是窄體機。我們注意到，寬體機需求可能要到 2022 年年中，甚至 2023 年才可能回來。

We see at the end of the second quarter as to be an inflection point to the beginnings of production increases for Howmet in the second half of the year, with the exact precise timing yet to be determined. We are planning to bring back from furlough or recruit several hundred workers during the next 2 quarters to train and retrain to be ready for this demand, just in the same effective way that we did in the third quarter of 2020 for the commercial wheels business. My expectation is that these costs plus cost of recommencing mothballed plants and equipment will hold EBITDA margins at around the 22% level until further stabilization is reached.

我們認為第二季末將是拐點，標誌著 Howmet 在下半年開始提高產量的起點，但確切時間點仍待確定。我們計畫在接下來兩個季度讓數百名員工結束停薪留職（furlough）回到工作崗位或進行招募，並進行訓練與再訓練，以因應這波需求；這與我們在 2020 年第三季針對商用輪圈業務所採取的有效作法相同。我預期這些成本，加上重新啟動封存（mothballed）的工廠與設備的成本，將使 EBITDA 利潤率維持在約 22% 的水準，直到進一步穩定為止。

We also know that there is an effect on the commercial transportation market of part shortages, particularly semiconductors, which is reducing shifts and production work in the second quarter. As noted earlier today, the timing for cash generation has been a focus for us. And instead of the normal large Q1 outflow, which then has to be subsequently overcome, the first quarter was essentially breakeven and all subsequent quarters are expected to be cash generative.

我們也知道，商用運輸市場受到零件短缺的影響，特別是半導體，這使第二季的班次與生產作業減少。如同今天稍早所提到的，現金創造的時點一直是我們的重點。不同於第一季通常會出現較大的現金流出、之後再逐季彌補的情況，今年第一季基本上接近損益兩平，而後續各季預期都將產生正向現金流。

Specifically, the guidance for Q2: sales at $1.2 billion, plus or minus $30 million; EBITDA of $265 million, plus or minus $5 million; EBITDA margin of 22.1%, plus or minus 10 basis points; and earnings per share of $0.20, plus or minus $0.01. And for the year, sales of $5.1 billion, plus $100 million, minus $50 million; EBITDA line increases -- the EBITDA baseline increases by $50 million to $1.15 billion, with a range of plus $50 million to minus $25 million; EBITDA margin baseline has now increased to 22.5%, plus 60 basis points and minus 20 basis points in terms of a range. The earnings per share baseline increases to $0.95, a significant increase over prior guidance and with a range of plus $0.07 to minus $0.04. And the cash flow baseline increased to $425 million, plus or minus [$35 million] (corrected by company after the call).

具體而言，第二季指引如下：銷售額 12 億美元，上下浮動 3,000 萬美元；EBITDA 2.65 億美元，上下浮動 500 萬美元；EBITDA 利潤率 22.1%，上下浮動 10 個基點；每股盈餘 0.20 美元，上下浮動 0.01 美元。全年方面，銷售額 51 億美元，上調 1 億美元、下調 5,000 萬美元；EBITDA 基準上調 5,000 萬美元至 11.5 億美元，區間為上調 5,000 萬美元至下調 2,500 萬美元；EBITDA 利潤率基準現已上調至 22.5%，區間為上調 60 個基點、下調 20 個基點；每股盈餘基準上調至 0.95 美元，較先前指引顯著提高，區間為上調 0.07 美元至下調 0.04 美元；現金流基準上調至 4.25 億美元，上下浮動[3,500 萬美元]（公司於電話會議後更正）。

Moving to the right-hand side of the slide. We note that second half revenue is expected to be up 12% for the total company, driven by the increases in commercial aerospace, defense and IGT. Price increases to be greater than 2020. Cost reduction carryover of approximately $100 million, and pension and OPEB contributions of $160 million. We continue to evaluate the impacts of the American Rescue Plan Act upon pension contributions and we'll determine those later in the year.

接著看投影片右側。我們注意到，下半年公司整體營收預期將成長 12%，主要由商用航太、國防與 IGT 的增長所帶動。價格調漲幅度預期將高於 2020 年。成本削減的結轉效益約 1 億美元，退休金與 OPEB 提撥為 1.6 億美元。我們持續評估《American Rescue Plan Act》對退休金提撥的影響，並將在今年稍晚決定。

CapEx is expected to be in the range of $200 million to $220 million compared to depreciation and amortization of $270 million. And adjusted free cash flow conversion is about 100% of net income. We plan to reinstate the quarterly dividend of $0.02 per share of common stock in the third quarter of 2021, pending the final Board approval.

資本支出（CapEx）預期介於 2 億至 2.2 億美元，相較之下折舊與攤銷為 2.7 億美元。調整後自由現金流轉換率約為淨利的 100%。在取得董事會最終核准的前提下，我們計畫於 2021 年第三季恢復每季每股普通股 0.02 美元的股利。

Now please move to Slide 14. To summarize, Q1 was a healthy start to the year, and liquidity of the company continues to be strong. The guidance provided is raised from that given in early February and reflects our first quarter profitability strength. The redemption of bonds for cash, the reinstitution of the dividend, all of which provide value to shareholders. More broadly, the focus is now turning to the beginning of the revenue recovery in the second half, commencing with commercial aerospace and the run rate of both revenues and margins as we exit 2021 and move into 2022, where we see the prospect of further leading indicator improvements.

現在請翻到第 14 頁。總結而言，第一季是今年健康的開局，公司流動性持續強勁。本次提供的指引較 2 月初所給的指引上調，反映我們第一季獲利能力的強勢。以現金贖回債券、恢復股利發放，這些都為股東創造價值。更廣泛地說，焦點正轉向下半年營收復甦的起點，將由商用航太開始，並關注我們在 2021 年結束、邁入 2022 年時的營收與利潤率運行水準（run rate），我們也看到領先指標進一步改善的可能性。

Thank you, and now we'll take your questions.

謝謝，現在我們開始回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Seth Seifman。

Just looking at the different segments and sort of where aero came down, I guess, if you think about where you are relative to the bottom, it sounds like, obviously, there's increases coming for the second half. But for -- I guess, for fasteners, I guess, do you feel like you have visibility with regard to what the level of destocking is and at the -- what we've seen in Q1 is kind of close to the bottom and then, I guess, similarly for structures as well?

我想從不同事業部來看，以及航太業務下滑的情況。我想，如果你們思考目前相對於谷底的位置，聽起來很明顯下半年會有增長。但就——我想就緊固件（fasteners）而言，你們是否能掌握去庫存（destocking）的程度，以及——我們在第一季看到的是否已經接近谷底？另外，結構件（structures）是否也有類似的情況？

Yes. So the way I think about it is in terms of sequence of the transition and with the end of the second quarter being the transition from basically the current holding pattern and [recent] results of the reduced demand and then the correction of the inventory to our customers. And already, we know that commercial transportation is going well, subject to those, I'll say, interruptions because of supply shortages. The big third comes in commercial aerospace, we believe, at the end of the second quarter. And I think that's going to be led by the engines business in terms of the first uptick in demand with -- and supported by structures, with fasteners probably still being a little bit behind that by another quarter or so.

是的。所以我的看法是，以轉換的先後順序來思考，第二季末將是從目前基本維持現狀、以及[近期]需求下滑所帶來的結果，轉向對客戶端庫存進行修正的過渡點。而且我們已經知道，商用運輸表現良好，只是會受到我所說的供應短缺所造成的中斷影響。第三個重點在商用航太，我們相信會在第二季末出現。我認為這將由引擎業務帶動，成為需求首次回升的領先者——並由結構件支撐；而緊固件可能仍會落後一些，大概再晚一個季度左右。

So my picture for the year is that commercial aerospace, I think, year-on-year, we're going to see that segment up 15% to 20% in the third quarter compared to second. Second quarter will be a reduced decrement compared to what we see the 52% currently. And then as that increase that we see as the turn occurs will be led by engine, supported by structures, with fasteners following maybe fourth quarter or even at the end of the year just as those inventories are absorbed then with what we think will be a fairly significant snapback in the first part of 2022. So that gives the sequence that I expect both for the commercial aerospace markets and how it affects each of our segments through the next 3 quarters.

所以我對今年的看法是，商用航太方面，我認為按年比較，我們將會看到第三季相較第二季該分部成長15%到20%。第二季的下滑幅度會比我們目前看到的52%減幅要小。接著，隨著轉折出現、我們看到的增長，將由引擎業務帶動、結構件支撐，而緊固件可能要到第四季甚至年底才會跟上，因為那些庫存需要被消化；然後我們認為在2022年初會有相當顯著的反彈。因此，這就是我預期的順序，無論是商用航太市場本身，或是它在未來3個季度如何影響我們各個事業部門。

Great. That's very helpful. And then just as a quick follow-up, can you talk about your level of visibility on the 737 MAX versus, I guess, when we were on the call 3 months ago?

很好。這非常有幫助。那再快速追問一下，你能談談你們對737 MAX的能見度，相較於我想我們3個月前在電話會議上時的情況嗎？

Yes. I mean, we think that it's going to continue in line with Boeing's build rate, which is currently at 7, rising to 14 in the late summer and then into the, I think, 22 per month range as we start 2022 and then up to 30 a month. So it seems set well at the moment. We're still, as I said on the previous call, have been supplying effectively below the 7 rate per month in aggregate. Obviously, different levels go into different product lines. But we are expecting to see being in line with shipset values to equal production and then the lift of production as we go forward.

可以。我的意思是，我們認為它將會持續與波音的生產速率一致；目前是每月7架，夏末提高到14架，然後在我們進入2022年初時提升到我認為每月約22架的區間，之後再到每月30架。所以目前看起來相當穩定。正如我在上次電話會議所說，我們在供應端整體上實際供貨仍低於每月7架的節奏。當然，不同產品線的供應水準不同。但我們預期將會看到供應與每架機組套件（shipset）的價值相符、等同於產量，並且隨著未來產量提升而同步上升。

So that's all built into what we think would be that 20% increase in commercial aero in the -- commencing in the third quarter. And also supported by the increase in production that in narrow-body for the A320 for Airbus as well.

所以這些都已納入我們所認為的商用航太在第三季開始約20%的增長之中。同時也會受到空中巴士A320窄體機產量提升的支撐。

Your next question is from Robert Spingarn of Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的Robert Spingarn。

John, just following up on Seth's question there on the MAX, maybe just to ask it slightly differently. But with Boeing or other suppliers talking about 160 aircraft being produced in 2021, can you tell us where you are relative to that number given the inventories in this already in the supply chain and so on? In other words, how much production do you need to do to match to their 160?

John，延續Seth剛才關於MAX的問題，或許換個方式問。波音或其他供應商談到2021年將生產160架飛機，考量到供應鏈中已經存在的庫存等等，你能告訴我們你們相對於這個數字目前在哪個位置嗎？換句話說，你們需要生產多少才能對應他們的160架？

Yes. I think we are closer to the 120 level, so let's say, 25% below that number for the year is how we see it with, say, that inflection point coming -- a significant inflection point coming as we start Q3, for which, if we didn't have confidence, we would not be going through the recruitment and bringing back of people in the second quarter, starting the second quarter, and seeing significant employment increases during the next 2 quarters.

是的。我認為我們更接近120架的水準，也就是說，按全年來看，我們大約比那個數字低25%。我們看到一個拐點即將到來——一個顯著的拐點會在第三季開始出現；如果我們沒有信心，我們就不會在第二季進行招募並讓人員回流，從第二季開始，並在接下來兩個季度看到顯著的就業人數增加。

Okay. And just on that, I guess, on the other question that Seth asked, and you talked about the second half improvement earlier led by engines. When will you actually know how far in advance of the shop visits are they scheduled? And are parts ordered? And what are the lead times for structures and fasteners as well? So in other words, when will you know what your second half looks like?

好的。那就這點來說，我想回到Seth問的另一個問題，你先前提到下半年改善將由引擎帶動。你們會在工廠維修（shop visits）排程前多久實際知道情況？零件是否已下單？另外結構件與緊固件的交期也是如此嗎？換句話說，你們何時會知道你們下半年的樣貌？

Okay. We have already begun to receive order intake now from our customers, particularly on the engine side, with letters of commitments on the, I'll say, schedule releases and EDI transmission. So what we're seeing is all the things which have been stated appear to be materializing as we speak. So even in the last week, we received letters from, let's say, Safran or CFM and meetings with GE Aviation, et cetera.

好的。我們現在已經開始從客戶那邊收到訂單流入（order intake），特別是在引擎端，包含承諾函（letters of commitments），我會說是排程釋出（schedule releases）以及EDI傳輸。因此，我們看到所有先前所提到的事情，正如我們此刻所見，似乎正在實現。甚至就在上週，我們收到了例如Safran或CFM的函件，也與GE Aviation等進行了會議，等等。

So it's gone from what we think may happen, to, I can say, a lot more confidence. And the question is one of just the final degree to be determined. So there's other stuff which has to be filled in, but an increasing level of confidence compared to 3 months ago.

所以它已經從「我們認為可能會發生」轉變為「我可以說我們更有信心」。問題只在於最後的幅度要到什麼程度仍待確定。還有其他部分需要補齊，但相較於3個月前，信心程度正在提高。

And is it different for fasteners? It's much more book and burn, so the lead times are shorter and you won't yet have a firm view on that?

那緊固件方面會不一樣嗎？它更像是接單即消化（book and burn），所以交期更短，你們目前還不會有很明確的看法？

Yes. We operate with some of our customers on min-max systems. And so the averages take some time to re-average. So at the moment, as they -- we were re-averaging down on those min-max systems, it takes time for it to feed through. And then it will then snap back. It gained more significant to the upside. But with that to -- I'd say maybe a 2-quarter delay for that segment is what I see as the most likely scenario. So that's why I said I think that fasteners will be a quarter or 2 behind what we're seeing elsewhere.

是的。我們與部分客戶採用最小-最大（min-max）系統運作，因此平均值需要一些時間重新計算。目前，當他們在那些min-max系統上把平均值往下重新平均時，需要時間才能反映出來。之後它會反彈，而且向上的幅度會更顯著。但就此而言——我會說該分部可能會落後約2個季度，這是我認為最可能的情境。所以我才說我認為緊固件會比我們在其他地方看到的情況落後一到兩個季度。

Your next question is from David Strauss of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊（Barclays）的David Strauss。

John, can you touch on what an inflationary environment might mean for your business, thinking about it from a pricing and raw material standpoint? Is an inflation -- as you net all of it, do you think an inflationary environment potentially going forward will it be a net positive for the business?

John，你能談談通膨環境可能對你們業務意味著什麼嗎？從定價與原材料的角度來看。把所有因素加總後，你認為未來的通膨環境對業務可能是淨正面嗎？

For the next few years, I don't see it as significant either way because material inflation will essentially be passed through to our customers by the escalator agreements that we have. And therefore, we're talking more about what would be the impact of labor inflation. Labor -- for labor inflation, for some significant parts of our businesses those are already set for the next, I'll say, 2 to 4 years depending upon the various labor agreements that we have in place. But obviously, some of the workforce, it's an annual event. And then it's up for us to gain the productivity that we seek to gain each year to offset that labor inflation.

在接下來幾年，我不認為它在任何一個方向上會有顯著影響，因為材料通膨基本上會透過我們與客戶之間的價格調整（escalator）協議轉嫁給客戶。因此，我們更多在談的是勞動成本通膨的影響。至於勞動通膨，我們業務中一些重要部分的成本其實已經在未來我會說2到4年內被鎖定，取決於我們現有的各種勞資協議。但顯然，部分員工是每年調整一次。接著就取決於我們每年要取得我們希望取得的生產力提升，以抵消勞動通膨。

So I'm -- in an inflationary environment, I don't expect that to be a problem for us. And indeed, with customer agreements that we have and also some of that we see is, say, being taken care of with the -- within the bandwidth of the LTA negotiations that we've been undergoing.

所以在通膨環境下，我不預期這會成為我們的問題。而且，透過我們與客戶的協議，以及我們看到的一些因素——例如在我們正在進行的長期協議（LTA）談判的可接受範圍內——也已經在處理之中。

Okay. As a follow-up on the capital deployment front, I know you've -- you've taken out a fair amount of debt reinstituting the dividend, but it still looks like the way you're tracking your cash balance will be well over $1 billion at year-end without doing anything else. So now that you don't have much, it looks like, to do on the debt side of things, how are you thinking about share repurchase from here?

好的。就資本部署再追問一下，我知道你們——你們發了相當多的債並恢復股利，但看起來如果不做其他事情，你們年底的現金餘額仍會遠超過10億美元。所以既然在債務方面看起來你們已經沒有太多要做的了，你們接下來如何看待股票回購？

Yes. So we described the potential for capital allocation strategies in some detail on the last call. In fact, I think I called it smorgasbord of opportunity to do various things. What we considered is the first order of battle was to deal with the next couple of maturities of our bonds. We did that easily from cash on hand. And that obviously produces a lower interest burden for the company, lower gross debt. And therefore, it's also seen some improvement from the rating agencies. So that's been, I think, a good step for us.

是的。我們在上次電話會議已相當詳細地描述了資本配置策略的可能性。事實上，我想我把它稱為一個「機會的自助餐」（smorgasbord），可以做各種事情。我們認為首要任務是處理未來幾筆到期的公司債。我們用手上現金很輕鬆地做到了。這顯然降低了公司的利息負擔、降低了總負債。因此，也讓評級機構看到一些改善。所以我認為這對我們是很好的步驟。

And now the next thing you have to address at some point, but not, I don't think, just now is the October 2024 at some point. So that's 3.5 years away in terms of bonds. So I'd say that part of the balance sheet is dealt with. We felt confident in the cash flows of the business to reinstate the dividend. That's an expression of our confidence and, again, part of our plan to return money to shareholders.

而接下來你在某個時間點必須處理的，但我認為不是現在，就是2024年10月那筆到期。就公司債而言，距離現在還有3.5年。所以我會說資產負債表的那一部分已經處理好了。我們對業務現金流有信心，因此恢復股利。這是我們信心的展現，也同樣是我們把資金回饋股東計畫的一部分。

And then the other 2 aspects that we have to consider is what about share repurchase and also to what degree, if anything, do we participate in any M&A activity, which may materialize over the next, say, year or so as the commercial aerospace market solidifies into, let's say, skylines and the confidence that we all can believe in. Clearly, that's beginning to happen given what I said about the inflection point that we see coming. And I guess, we're in that position, David, that you said, is that if all things work out as planned, is that we'll have a very significant cash balance at the end of the year and have the ability to make other decisions in capital deployment in the future.

然後我們還需要考量的另外兩個面向是：股票回購怎麼辦？以及在某種程度上，如果有的話，我們是否參與任何併購（M&A）活動——這些活動可能會在接下來大約一年左右隨著商用航太市場穩固而浮現，形成我們可以相信的、我會說的可見產能曲線（skylines）與信心。顯然，鑑於我所說我們看到的拐點即將到來，這件事正開始發生。我想，David，正如你所說，如果一切按計畫進行，我們年底將會有非常可觀的現金餘額，並且有能力在未來就資本部署做出其他決策。

So I think all is well in terms of, let's say, the whole capital allocation strategy that we set out for ourselves in the recent months.

所以我認為，就我們在近幾個月為自己制定的整體資本配置策略而言，一切都進展良好。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Carter Copeland of Melius Research.

（接線員指示）下一個問題來自Melius Research的Carter Copeland。

One question. David is in trouble. I guess I got to stick to one, right, John?

一個問題。David 有麻煩了。我想我得只問一個，對吧，John？

Well, you never do anyway, Carter. So I just like -- it's one of these like aspiration things, but yes, you go for the -- you go for the multiple 5-part question.

嗯，反正你也從來不只問一個，Carter。所以我只是覺得——這算是一種願望式的事情，但沒錯，你就問那個——你就問那個由 5 個部分組成的多重問題吧。

That's fine. I'll do 1-parter. So obviously, the shift in focus is moving to going back up in production and then bringing people back from furlough, training and the like. But one of the things that we used to talk about before this all went down was yield, whether that's first pass yields or rolled throughput yields in some of those key spots in your facilities.

沒問題。我就問一題。很明顯，重點的轉移正在回到提升產量，然後讓人員從停薪留職回來、訓練等等。但在這一切發生之前，我們過去常談的一件事是良率，不管是一次通過良率（first pass yields）或是在你們廠內一些關鍵站點的累積通過良率（rolled throughput yields）。

When you look at yields and production facilities today versus where those were when we were talking about shortages and engine OEM factories 2 years ago or so, how does that stand today? And how does that play into your confidence and conviction around going up without hiccups?

當你看今天的良率與生產設施狀況，相較於大約兩年前我們在談短缺、引擎 OEM 工廠時的狀況，現在表現如何？這又如何影響你對於順利拉升產量、不出差錯的信心與把握？

Okay. When I look at the last couple of years in our aerospace business, I think one of the untold stories is the improvement in delivery performance and our quality levels whether it's been reducing arrears, whether it's beem parts per mining defects or even internal scrap in our manufacturing plants. And yields have clearly have definitely improved both for defense aerospace and commercial aerospace segments. And so it's all good.

好的。當我回顧過去幾年我們的航太業務，我認為其中一個鮮少被提到的故事，是交付表現與品質水準的改善——不論是降低積欠交付（arrears）、降低每百萬件缺陷（parts per million defects），甚至是我們製造廠內部的報廢。良率在國防航太與商用航太兩個板塊都確實明顯改善了。所以整體來說是好事。

I really want to protect our reputation and reliability with our customers and really seek to do that by bringing labor back and training it. So I think the things we did last year in the third quarter for our wheels business have paid off handsomely in terms of our ability to increase production with excellent quality and deliver these very significant incremental margins that we've seen in that wheels business.

我非常想要維護我們在客戶面前的聲譽與可靠性，而要做到這點，關鍵在於把人力帶回來並完成訓練。我認為我們去年第三季在輪圈（wheels）業務所做的事情，已經帶來非常可觀的回報：我們能在維持優異品質的同時提升產量，並交出我們在輪圈業務中看到的那些非常顯著的增量利潤率。

And so rather than, I think, stumble through this, we're trying to be ahead of it, being planful on labor and recognizing that there is a training time or re-training for people to be able to deliver the yields that we currently have and hopefully continue to improve them. So that's why I want to plan carefully through the next couple of quarters because we are talking a very significant increase in labor. Obviously, we'll be tailoring it to and then trimming it exactly as we see to go through it. But I really want to be ahead of this thing and not chasing it and having yield issues and arrears build and all the consequences that, that puts upon the business.

因此，我們不是要在這件事上跌跌撞撞地摸索，而是希望走在前面：在人力上有計畫地安排，並認知到要達到目前的良率、甚至希望持續改善，員工需要訓練或再訓練的時間。這也是為什麼我想在接下來幾個季度仔細規劃，因為我們談的是非常顯著的人力增加。當然，我們會依情況調整，並在需要時精準縮減。但我真的希望走在前面，而不是追著跑，最後出現良率問題、積欠交付累積，以及這些對業務造成的所有後果。

So if it cost us, let's say, a couple of -- 200, 300 [20, 30 basis points] (corrected by the company after the event) basis points or whatever margin for a quarter or so, I think that's money really well spent because it's going to be what's the margin as we exit this year and how do we perform into 2022. So really trying to be planful about the next phase of our business and not just react to it after the event and that you seem to be scrambling. So that's all part of the value we bring to, I think, to the industry and to our customers.

所以即便這讓我們付出——比方說，一個季度左右——幾個……200、300 [20、30 個基點]（公司於會後更正）的基點或其他幅度的利潤率，我認為這筆錢花得非常值得，因為關鍵在於我們今年年底退出時的利潤率會是多少，以及我們在 2022 年的表現如何。也就是說，我們真的在為業務的下一階段做有計畫的安排，而不是事後才反應、看起來手忙腳亂。我想這也是我們為產業與客戶帶來的價值之一。

Your next question is from Gautam Khanna of Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Gautam Khanna。

Forgive a 2 question ask. But first, I was curious about lead time discussions with customers, are you having those? I mean I imagine it's chicken or egg if the lead times are short. They don't have the urgency to place orders. But then we have as the order books pick up, the lead times extend, and there's a queuing effect.

請原諒我問兩個問題。首先我想了解，你們是否正在與客戶討論交期（lead time）？我的意思是，如果交期很短，就像是雞生蛋、蛋生雞——客戶可能就不急著下單。但當訂單簿開始回升，交期就會拉長，並出現排隊效應。

I mean, do you think that plays out over the next 1.5 years where we see kind of a bullwhip effect? I know you just talked about the second half being above the first half. But I mean, could we see kind of outsized growth as we move in? Or do you think it will be just feathered in gradually in terms of the recovery? And then I have a follow-up.

你認為這會在未來 1.5 年上演，形成某種牛鞭效應（bullwhip effect）嗎？我知道你剛提到下半年會高於上半年。但我的意思是，隨著我們往前走，會不會看到某種超常的成長？還是你認為復甦會以較為平滑、逐步的方式推進？然後我還有一個追問。

Yes. The way I see it at the moment is everybody is aware there's plenty of metal in the system, and that gives people, I'll say, the ability to drop in a little bit later than would have been normal. If you looked at the demand levels of 2019 where lead times were, let's say, to get metal for some of our products was over 12 months. So we need to recognize the situation we're all in with carrying some trapped inventory. And we still have trapped inventory, which we plan to liquidate during the balance of 2021.

是的。我目前的看法是，大家都知道系統裡有充足的金屬供應，這讓人們——我會說——有能力比正常情況更晚一些再下單。如果你看 2019 年的需求水準，當時我們某些產品要取得金屬的交期，可能超過 12 個月。所以我們必須認清我們目前所處的狀況：手上有一些被困住的庫存（trapped inventory）。而我們仍然有被困住的庫存，計畫在 2021 年剩餘期間加以去化。

And it's really interesting. Because when we look at our inventory levels as we move through the year, one of recent discussions in our quarterly review has been to what degree do we hold on to some of those in the latter part of the year just so again we're in a really strong position as we enter 2022 with what we think will be a fairly strong year for us in terms of demand.

這其實很有意思。因為當我們觀察今年的庫存水位變化時，我們在季度檢討中最近的一個討論是：在今年後段，我們要在多大程度上保留其中一部分庫存，這樣我們在進入 2022 年時就能再次處於非常有利的位置——而我們認為 2022 年在需求面對我們來說會是相當強勁的一年。

So where we find ourselves at the moment is our customers know that there's metal in the system, we know there's trapped inventory. And so we're more on that 3 to 6 months of lead times. And people have been holding off, and we've been seeing that fill in very significantly in the last few weeks. And then obviously, it's like everything is going to depend. But I do see, if we look out 6 months from now, then those lead times are going to be significantly increased. And therefore, orders are going to have to be placed.

所以我們目前的狀況是：客戶知道系統裡有金屬，我們也知道有被困住的庫存。因此交期大概落在 3 到 6 個月。大家一直在延後下單，而我們在過去幾週看到這部分非常明顯地補上來。當然，接下來一切都要看情況。但我確實認為，如果我們往後看 6 個月，那些交期將會顯著拉長，因此訂單就必須下。

Otherwise, with some of the production increases on narrow-bodies, in particular, that Airbus and Boeing are looking at for 2022 and certainly later in 2022, I mean they won't occur unless orders are placed because the availability of that inventory and the current excess of metals has just been in the system for the last year just won't be there.

否則，特別是 Airbus 與 Boeing 正在規劃於 2022 年、以及 2022 年稍晚提高窄體機（narrow-bodies）產量的那些增產，除非先下單，否則不會發生；因為那批庫存的可用性，以及目前金屬的過剩，過去一年一直存在於系統中，但之後就不會再有了。

That is helpful. And then I just wanted to ask, last quarter, we talked about how the Boeing schedule is a little bit more in flux than the Airbus production schedule. But we heard Spirit yesterday talk about 9 to 10 A350s coming out of the plan this year and next. So I was curious, how stable is it now on the Airbus side? Did you see much in the way of changes over the past 3 months? And is that in...

這很有幫助。然後我想問的是，上個季度我們談到 Boeing 的排程比 Airbus 的生產排程更不穩定。但我們昨天聽 Spirit 提到，今年與明年計畫中會減少 9 到 10 架 A350。所以我想了解，現在 Airbus 這邊的穩定性如何？過去 3 個月你們看到多少變動？以及那是否在……

No, we've seen no changes on Airbus. It's been solid. Solid all the way through, meeting what they've said, reinforcing what they've said, issuing both skyline and production schedules. So no changes for Airbus at all. And in fact, in the more recent past, we have not seen changes from Boeing either, which in last year or so have tend to be towards the downside. Again, none of that's been occurring.

沒有，我們在 Airbus 這邊沒有看到任何變動。一直都很穩。從頭到尾都很穩，符合他們所說的，也持續強化他們所說的，並發布了 skyline 與生產排程。所以 Airbus 完全沒有變動。事實上，在更近期，我們也沒有看到 Boeing 有變動；而在過去一年左右，Boeing 的變動往往偏向下修。再次強調，最近都沒有發生這種情況。

Your next question is from Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

John, you're saying some pretty positive things about what we could be seeing in 2022 and beyond. But I was wondering, as we feed this volume through the system, what your thoughts might be on incremental margins as volumes recover? Can we say, for example, take your experience in wheels and apply that to aerospace?

John，你對於 2022 年及之後可能看到的情況說了不少正面的看法。但我想問的是，當我們把這些產量逐步導入整個系統時，你對於產量復甦過程中的增量利潤率（incremental margins）有什麼看法？例如，我們能否把你們在輪圈業務的經驗套用到航太業務？

I think there -- obviously, our wheels have a different profile to our engine business, to our structures business. So it's got to be segment by segment. But essentially, I am on record having said that we expect fairly strong incrementals as we go forward. Because in the way that we managed through this crisis, you can see that, compared to our normal decrementals of, let's call it, 40%, we've been getting those into the 20s and have been quite pleased with both the way we've managed our structural cost takeout and the variable costs. And it's our job not to allow those more fixed cost to creep back into the system. And they also, indeed, try to be sticky on those variable costs as we go back up the production volume curve. So we are expecting healthy incremental margins.

我認為——很顯然，我們的輪圈業務與引擎業務、結構件業務的特性不同，所以必須逐板塊來看。但基本上，我已經公開說過，我們預期未來會有相當強勁的增量利潤率。因為在我們度過這次危機的管理方式下，你可以看到，相較於我們正常的減量利潤率（decrementals）大約 40%，我們已把它降到 20% 多，而且對於我們在結構性成本削減與變動成本管理上的表現都相當滿意。我們的工作就是不要讓那些較固定的成本重新滲回系統中；同時，當我們沿著產量回升曲線往上走時，也要努力讓那些變動成本同樣具有黏性。因此，我們預期會有健康的增量利潤率。

And part of it is also getting that labor in place at the right time and trained and ready, as I tried to describe on a couple of questions ago. So we don't stumble our way through this. It's planfully set out and accepting it as if it cost us 200 or 300 basis points of margin -- not being 200 basis points but 20 or 30 basis points of margin. So I think I just can't get to like just over 22% for the second quarter just to take out of -- I'd rather bring the labor in and then look forward to those healthy incrementals going forward.

其中一部分也取決於在正確的時間把人力配置到位，並完成訓練、做好準備——就像我在前幾個問題中試著描述的那樣。這樣我們就不會一路跌跌撞撞地走過去，而是有計畫地推進；並且接受即便這會讓我們付出 200 或 300 個基點的利潤率——不是 200 個基點，而是 20 或 30 個基點的利潤率。我想我不會為了在第二季把利潤率硬拉到略高於 22% 來做這種取捨——我寧可把人力先帶進來，然後展望未來那些健康的增量利潤率。

That's helpful. And just a quick follow-up. That margin impact from extra labor, that's baked into your 2021 guidance?

這很有幫助。再快速追問一下。額外人力帶來的毛利率影響，已經納入你們 2021 年的指引了嗎？

Yes, it is.

是的，已經納入了。

Your next question is from Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Noah Poponak。

John, having 2Q revenue be down year-over-year a little bit, despite that lapping a largely pandemic-impacted quarter, the low end of the 2Q guide being down a little sequentially, that's pretty surprising given your mix. I kind of expect that in aerospace original equipment as that's longer cycle, but aerospace aftermarket, defense, truck, industrial would think would all be up year-over-year and sequentially.

John，第二季營收年對年小幅下滑，儘管去年同期主要受到疫情衝擊；而且第二季指引低端還較前一季小幅下滑，考量到你們的產品組合，這相當令人意外。我大概會預期航太原廠（OEM）會這樣，因為那是較長週期；但航太售後市場、國防、卡車、工業等，我原本以為都會年對年與季對季成長。

Is there just more destocking in aerospace original equipment or a longer time for you to link up to Boeing and Airbus than maybe I had appreciated? And so if you could help me understand that and maybe just get specific on how much inventory destock left and anywhere where you're not yet linked up to Boeing and Airbus would be really helpful.

是不是航太原廠端還有更多去庫存，或是你們與波音（Boeing）和空中巴士（Airbus）接軌所需時間比我原先理解的更長？如果可以，請協助我理解這點，並且更具體說明還剩多少去庫存，以及有哪些地方你們尚未與波音和空巴接軌，會非常有幫助。

So Q2 of 2020, our customers were not rapid to change some of the production requirements, and that became more of feature in the third quarter, as you know, from last year. So when we look at Q2 this year, because some of the schedules have not been reduced that significantly, although they were reduced and you say plants were closed down, it's a very, I'll call, turbulent quarter to comp against. And so the way I look at it is more, let's say, on a sequential basis, where I'm thinking that, well, commercial aero was down 52%, it's going to be down a lot less than that in terms of build comparisons.

2020 年第二季，我們的客戶並沒有很快去調整部分生產需求；如你所知，這在第三季才變得更明顯。當我們看今年第二季時，因為有些排程並沒有大幅下修——雖然確實有下修，而且你也提到工廠曾關閉——所以拿來做同比比較是一個非常、我稱之為「波動很大」的季度。因此我看待它的方式更偏向季對季：例如商用航太曾下滑 52%，在製造量（build）比較上，接下來的下滑幅度會小很多。

And then the only other muting effect I'm thinking about at the moment is we are careful in terms of the commercial truck build plans of our customers, just because of those part shortages. So we are seeing shifts go down and customers take weeks out in the second quarter. And that's part of what we are guiding to as well, including that in our numbers as best as we can estimate it at this point in time. So it's a fairly, I must say, careful assumption around the commercial transportation business for the second quarter.

另外一個我目前想到會壓抑的因素是：我們對客戶的商用卡車生產計畫相當謹慎，主要因為零件短缺。我們確實看到班次減少、客戶在第二季把某些週次的產量往後挪。這也是我們在指引中所反映的一部分——在目前時間點，我們會把這些因素盡可能以最佳估計納入數字。因此，對第二季的商用運輸業務，我必須說我們採取的是相當保守的假設。

At the same time, I would say to you now the flip side of that is that order intake for us pretty much globally has been very healthy. And you've seen class 8 truck and trailer orders at levels now, which essentially secure the backlog for the balance of 2021 and most of the way through 2022 at the moment. And so -- whereas before, we were thinking we had a fairly good trajectory, but it wasn't filled in totally. Now you see that demand so strong.

同時，我也想說另一面是：我們在全球的接單量基本上都非常健康。你也看到 8 級卡車與拖車的訂單已來到目前的水準，幾乎已經確保了 2021 年剩餘期間以及 2022 年大部分時間的在手訂單（backlog）。所以——先前我們認為走勢不錯，但還沒有完全填滿；現在你可以看到需求非常強勁。

So for example, if you wanted to buy a new trailer to go with your truck at the moment, if you ordered it today, you wouldn't be thinking about taking delivery for 12 months. So you're looking out into the second quarter of 2022. Now that's how long lead times are in the commercial transportation industry. So that's really very healthy for us and really puts a very solid platform on 2022 and never mind the balance of this year.

例如，如果你現在想買一台新拖車來搭配你的卡車，即使你今天下單，也不會預期在 12 個月內交車；也就是要看到 2022 年第二季。這就是商用運輸產業的交期有多長。因此這對我們非常健康，也為 2022 年奠定非常穩固的平台，更不用說今年剩餘期間。

So I just want to give you the full picture around that. And so if we're cautious on, I'll call, supply-based interruptions the truck build in the very short term, given the strength of the economy, what we see by way of transportation and shipping of things, it's producing a very solid picture for backlog for the next, let's say, 18 months.

我只是想把整體情況完整說明。所以即便短期內我們對卡車生產因供應面中斷（我稱之為供應端干擾）而保持謹慎，但考量經濟力道、以及我們看到的運輸與貨運活動，未來大約 18 個月的在手訂單呈現非常扎實的樣貌。

Okay. That's really helpful. Could you just put a little more detail around where, if anywhere, you're not yet linked up to Boeing and Airbus or where in the business there's more inventory destock yet to occur?

好的，這真的很有幫助。你能否再多補充一些細節：在哪些地方（如果有的話）你們尚未與波音和空巴接軌？或是業務中還有哪些地方仍有較多去庫存尚未發生？

Basically, we are still having inventory taken out in the second quarter. And then we think, and it's like it's the best judgment that basically that just essentially stops and so at the end of the second quarter. So we begin to see our structures business in the second half where we're planning for increased production. We're seeing it clearly. I've already mentioned the engine-based business and the only business which is going to lag for, again, a couple of quarters behind that is going to be our fastener business where I think we're going to be close on, balanced all inventories up by the -- maybe by the end of the third quarter, could stray into Q4.

基本上，我們在第二季仍然會持續被去庫存。然後我們認為——這是我們最佳判斷——去庫存基本上會在第二季末就停止。因此在下半年，我們開始看到結構件（structures）業務，因為我們正規劃提高產量；我們看得很清楚。我已經提到以引擎為主的業務；而唯一會落後、再晚個幾季的業務會是我們的緊固件（fastener）業務。我認為我們大概會在第三季末把庫存調整到接近平衡，可能會延伸到第四季。

But that's how we see it at the moment. So different flavors for those different segments according to basically lead times and trying to get ahead of it. Because I think one thing our customers don't want to have is some of the supply constraints, particularly around engine parts, which are really long lead-time items ultimately. They're on the same constraints as we saw a couple of years ago.

這就是我們目前的看法。不同區塊會有不同的節奏，主要取決於交期以及我們試圖提前因應。因為我認為客戶不希望出現供應受限，特別是引擎零件——那終究是交期非常長的品項。他們面臨的限制，與我們幾年前看到的情況相同。

Your next question is from Paretosh Misra of Berenberg.

下一個問題來自貝倫貝格（Berenberg）的 Paretosh Misra。

I'm guessing structures have the highest wide-body exposure, and probably engines have the highest narrow-body exposure. Is that correct? And if any way you could further quantify it as to what's the wide-body versus narrow-body split in engine versus structures.

我猜結構件的寬體機曝險最高，而引擎的窄體機曝險最高。這樣理解正確嗎？如果可以的話，能否進一步量化：引擎與結構件各自的寬體機與窄體機占比大概是多少？

Certainly, you're right in terms of basic structures and our fastener business because of the composite content of wide-body aircraft. So if you're thinking Airbus A350s as an example or Boeing 787s and with those composite structures more titanium, whole different suite of fasteners, then you can see that impact in the way we've laid out our revenue expectations with then, as we said, I'll say, an improving situation somewhat behind the engine business.

當然，你的方向是對的：就基本結構件以及我們的緊固件業務而言，因為寬體機的複合材料含量更高。舉例來說，如果你想到空巴 A350 或波音 787，這些複合材料結構會使用更多鈦材，且需要一整套不同的緊固件，因此你可以在我們所提出的營收預期中看到這個影響；而我們也說過，相較於引擎業務，改善的情況會稍微落後一些。

If you look at the traditional split going back to -- you got to have to go back to 2019 because it's been moving around. And I'm just trying to keep all of these numbers in my head, but it's like a 60-40 narrow -- maybe 55-45 narrow to wide-body split. That has shifted the same as Boeing and Airbus has shifted over the last 12 months. So to give you a picture on that, I think, traditionally, Boeing would have been 60, Airbus 40, split the other way, and they could rebalance again in 2021, to some degree, as the MAX gets back up and going.

如果看傳統的拆分——你得回到 2019 年，因為之後一直在變動。我盡量把這些數字記在腦中，但大概是窄體對寬體 60/40——或許是 55/45。這個比例在過去 12 個月也跟著波音與空巴的變化而移動。為了讓你有個概念，我認為傳統上波音大概是 60、空巴 40；現在則是反過來，而在 2021 年，隨著 MAX 逐步恢復生產，可能又會在某種程度上重新平衡。

For engines, I actually don't keep the numbers in my head in terms of what the exact split is. Certainly, in terms of what we see over the next 12, 18 months is that the narrow-body engines, so think LEAP-1A, LEAP-1B and then obviously, some of the aftermarket service business coming back, particularly for the CFM engines. So what we see begin to fill in the back end of the year to 2022. But I think that's best I can do at this point. I can't exactly remember the split between wide and narrow for engine and maybe we haven't given it.

至於引擎，我其實沒有把精確的拆分比例記在腦中。可以確定的是，在未來 12 到 18 個月，我們看到的是窄體機引擎——例如 LEAP-1A、LEAP-1B——以及售後服務業務回升，特別是 CFM 引擎相關。這些會在今年下半年到 2022 年逐步補上。但目前我能提供的大概就到這裡；我不太記得引擎業務寬體與窄體的確切拆分，也許我們也尚未對外提供。

This is great, John. I really appreciate all the details. And maybe as a follow-up, with regard to the industrial and other end market, I'm sorry if I missed this, but have you given out what sort of full year growth rate is baked in your revenue guidance for the year?

這很棒，John。我非常感謝你提供這麼多細節。再追問一下，關於工業與其他終端市場——如果我漏聽了先說抱歉——你們是否有說明在全年營收指引中，隱含的全年成長率大概是多少？

For the gross industrial markets, we haven't called that out. But just to me just give you a picture on that, the way we see us going through IGT part of that business is strong and getting stronger, in fact. And so at the moment, we could sell everything we could make. And so again, we're working on raising production for that. So that's, I'll say, fairly exciting.

對於廣義的工業市場，我們沒有特別點出。不過我給你一個概況：我們看到 IGT 這部分業務表現強勁，而且事實上還在變得更強。目前我們幾乎是能做多少就能賣多少。因此我們也正在努力提高那部分的產能。我會說這相當令人振奮。

Oil and gas has been really very muted for the last year and the first half of this year. But we -- our thought process is that maybe in the fourth quarter or certainly by the first quarter of next year, we think in the oil and gas begins to show an improvement for us. We see Texas crude now at $66, plus or minus, and natural gas has moved up. And rig count has moved up significantly for the Gulf. And so all that's talking well to us in terms of the demand patterns we work through inventories in oil and gas.

油氣在過去一年以及今年上半年都相當低迷。但我們的想法是，也許在第四季，或至少到明年第一季，油氣對我們而言會開始出現改善。我們看到德州原油目前約在 66 美元上下，天然氣也上漲；墨西哥灣的鑽機數量也顯著增加。這些都讓我們對油氣在去化庫存後的需求型態感到樂觀。

And then in general industrial is also strengthening, as we see through the balance of 2021, again, in the second half. So basically, snapshot is IGT is strong. Oil and gas, another quarter or 2 of weakness, followed by some strength, and then general industrial progressively getting better as well.

而一般工業也在走強，我們預期 2021 年下半年會持續改善。總結來說：IGT 很強；油氣還會再弱一到兩季，之後轉強；一般工業也會逐步變得更好。

Your next question is from Phil Gibbs of KeyBanc Capital.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital 的 Phil Gibbs。

It's Mike on for Phil. I wanted to get an update on price increases here. You're getting good traction there and you expect to be greater than what you saw in 2020. But do you have visibility into when you expect the lion's share of those price increases to be seen in the year? Or should we expect fairly steady benefits quarter-over-quarter?

我是 Mike，代替 Phil 發言。我想了解一下這裡的漲價進展。你們在這方面推進得很順利，而且你們預期會高於 2020 年的水準。但你們是否能掌握在一年當中，這些漲價的主要效益大概會在什麼時候反映出來？還是我們應該預期每一季環比都有相當穩定的效益？

I think we're going to see a fairly steady pattern throughout the year. Most of our agreements have now been -- in fact, I think all of our agreements have been renewed in terms of LTAs for '21. We don't expect much by way of spot business, unless something occurs in the back end of the year where a demand is mismatched to previous schedule. So I mean that's the picture there. And I guess, we'll be giving enhanced detail in our 10-Q, which we plan to issue later today. But basically, everything is in order in that side compared to previous statements.

我認為我們全年會看到相當穩定的走勢。我們大多數的協議現在都已經——事實上，我想我們所有的協議就 2021 年的長期協議（LTA）而言都已完成續約。我們不預期會有太多現貨業務，除非在年底後段出現需求與先前排程不匹配的情況。所以大致上就是這樣的狀況。我想我們會在 10-Q 裡提供更詳細的資訊，我們計畫在今天稍晚發布。但基本上，這一塊相較於先前的說法，一切都在掌控之中。

Your next question is from George Shapiro of Shapiro Research.

下一個問題來自 Shapiro Research 的 George Shapiro。

Yes, John, it looks like sequentially commercial aero was maybe down about 2%, if you could validate that. And if you could also break out what you think the mix is now between OE and aftermarket. And then the improvement you're looking for in the second half, is that primarily OE or aftermarket?

是的，John，看起來商用航太按季可能下滑了大約 2%，你能否確認一下？另外，你能否拆分一下你認為目前 OE 與售後市場的組合占比？以及你們在下半年期待的改善，主要來自 OE 還是售後市場？

Okay. So benefits in the second half essentially is OE. There will be some modest improvement, I think, in commercial aero, but fairly modest. If you -- to give you a picture, if you go back, 2019 as the reference point, $800 million of spares, which essentially is engine, plus bit on top of that, fasteners and structure business. It was $400 million of defense and industrial that grew, let's say, let's call it, 20% over the last year or so. So healthy growth there.

好的。所以，下半年的效益基本上來自 OE。我認為商用航太會有一些小幅改善，但幅度相當有限。給你一個概念，如果以 2019 年作為參考點，備品（spares）是 8 億美元，基本上是引擎相關，再加上一點緊固件與結構件業務。國防與工業是 4 億美元，過去一年左右成長了，我們就說大約 20%。所以那邊的成長很健康。

But for the most part, the spares or parts we sell through to the MRO shops through our customers just dropped off a cliff in the second half of last year. So basically, you see limited demand, but still a demand like commercial business jet and some very modest levels of spares business. And that picture through that is first half of this year is pretty much the same as the back half of last year. So compared to $100 million a quarter, I think, more like $20 million a quarter. It can be below that, could be just above it, just depends on the quarter. It's just bouncing around with small numbers.

但就大部分而言，我們透過客戶賣到 MRO 維修廠的備品或零件，在去年下半年幾乎是斷崖式下滑。所以基本上，你會看到需求有限，但仍有一些需求，例如商務噴射機的商用業務，以及非常有限的備品需求。而今年上半年延續的情況，基本上和去年下半年差不多。所以相較於每季 1 億美元，我認為更像是每季 2,000 萬美元。可能低於這個數字，也可能略高一些，取決於季度；只是因為基數很小，所以會上下波動。

In the second half of this year, I think we're expecting a modest lift, but not planning for anything significant in that spares business in the second half at this point, but let's say a little bit higher than that. Let's call it compared to the $20 million a quarter, thinking more like that $25 million to $30 million a quarter. It doesn't move the needle for us at this point in time. I think it will in '22. So all the guidance I've given you is essentially balance in the commercial aerospace part of our business is coming off the OE demand.

今年下半年，我認為我們預期會有溫和回升，但目前並沒有把備品業務在下半年會有任何顯著復甦納入規劃，不過可以說會比現在稍高一些。相較於每季 2,000 萬美元，我們想的是每季大約 2,500 萬到 3,000 萬美元。就目前而言，這對我們影響不大。我認為 2022 年會有影響。所以我給你的所有指引，本質上是：我們商用航太業務的平衡改善主要來自 OE 需求回升。

Your final question is from Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

最後一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Noah Poponak。

Noah, you're back.

Noah，你又回來了。

I'm back.

我回來了。

That's way to get more than 1 question in.

這樣就能問到超過 1 個問題了。

I totally never violate the stick to 1 question rule. So I came back. Just kidding. John, the last time commercial aerospace was in a similar point in its cycle sort of looking at the early part of the recovery, the fasteners market was just volatile and it turned out it was that because of a lot of use of distributors and just kind of maybe a long path from the part OEM to the airplane OEM, it ended up just taking a long time to recover and was just kind of messy.

我絕對沒有違反「一次只問一個問題」的規則。所以我又回來了。開玩笑的。John，上一次商用航太處在類似的週期位置、也就是復甦初期時，緊固件市場非常波動；後來發現是因為大量透過經銷商，加上從零件 OEM 到飛機 OEM 的路徑可能很長，結果導致復甦需要很長時間，整體也相當混亂。

And hearing you talk about the inventory destock maybe lasting a little longer there, maybe you could just help us get comfortable that the issues that drove that last time around aren't in the system again. And I guess, how worried are you about that in that business?

聽你提到去庫存（inventory destock）可能會持續久一點，也許你可以幫我們更安心一些，確認上一次造成那種情況的問題不會再次出現在系統裡。另外，你對這塊業務有多擔心？

Well, I don't know if I can give you any more comfort asI wasn't around when the last cycle really occurred, so I don't know. We've done a lot of efforts in our business to try to grow it, not just in OE demand, but also through distribution. And at the moment, I think it's good and clear that we've called it out, being probably a couple of quarters behind where we think some of the other parts of our commercial aerospace businesses are beginning to respond.

嗯，我不確定我能給你更多的安心，因為上一次週期真正發生時我不在，所以我也不清楚。我們在業務上做了很多努力來推動成長，不只是 OE 需求，也包括透過通路分銷。而就目前來看，我認為很清楚、也很明確的是，我們已經指出這一塊可能比我們商用航太其他部分的反應落後大約幾個季度。

And so I think that's a fairly thought-through and quality view of the market at this point. I recognize that we do have extended chains. So for example, part of our -- if you could just take the North American business, and so I'll just confine my comments to that. Yes, we'll supply directly to Boeing. So that's part of the demand. But we also supply into -- in Spirit. And therefore, it's another step in the supply chain.

所以我認為，這是目前對市場相當周全且具品質的看法。我也承認我們確實有較長的供應鏈。舉例來說，如果只看北美業務——我就把評論限定在這裡——是的，我們會直接供貨給波音，這是需求的一部分。但我們也供貨給 Spirit，因此在供應鏈上又多了一個環節。

And what we're clear at is that we've been supplying at below rate for some time. We're not trying to be optimistic in saying we're going to see that recovery in the Q3 or Q4. We've been saying it's a couple of quarters behind and do think that it will begin to recover or will maybe even -- maybe it's the bullwhip comment that Gautam used or is it snapback. I think we're going to see significant demand increases for our fastener business in 2022. That's the best I can guide you at this point in time without the perfect visibility that, I guess, we'd all like, but we don't have.

我們很清楚的是，我們以低於既定產能/速率（below rate）供貨已經有一段時間了。我們並不是樂觀地說 Q3 或 Q4 就會看到復甦。我們一直在說它落後幾個季度，而且確實認為它會開始復甦，甚至可能——也許是 Gautam 提到的「牛鞭效應」（bullwhip），或是「反彈」（snapback）。我認為 2022 年我們的緊固件業務需求會顯著增加。以目前的時間點，在沒有我們都希望擁有、但實際上並不存在的完美能見度下，這是我能給你的最佳指引。

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And just one more while I'm on here. The cost you've referred to, to sort of prepared to have growth come back, hiring, et cetera, is there any range of an absolute dollar number you could put on that just so we could then compare that to the cost-out number you've had?

好的，這很有幫助。我再多問一個。你提到為了準備迎接成長回來而產生的成本，例如招募等，你能否給一個絕對金額的區間，讓我們可以拿來和你們提到的成本削減（cost-out）數字做比較？

Well, it's -- of course, it's -- the cost-out number is essentially more of a structural cost takeout rather than the variable cost side. The cost -- the employment that I'm talking about bringing into the business is essentially in our variable cost structure. So you need to understand it's a completely different part of bucketing in the P&L. And I just consider like the direct labor flexes in accordance with the production requirements.

嗯，這——當然，這——cost-out 的數字本質上比較偏向結構性成本的削減，而不是變動成本端。我所說要把人力帶回業務裡的雇用，基本上是在我們的變動成本結構中。所以你需要理解，這在損益表（P&L）的分類上是完全不同的一塊。我把它視為直接人工會隨著生產需求而彈性調整。

To give you a picture for our second quarter, then we're thinking of, let's say, around 400 people, could be 500 people, to bring into the business in -- during April, May and June to prepare ourselves for what we've talked about and recognizing that many of those hours won't be necessarily that productive as we go through.

以第二季為例，我們在想大約要引進 400 人，可能 500 人，在 4 月、5 月和 6 月期間加入業務，以便為我們所談到的狀況做準備，同時也要認知到，當我們進行這些準備時，其中很多工時未必會那麼有生產力。

So you can begin to work out if you just apply an average direct labor cost per employee for that sort of numbers and average them through a quarter. You can see the sort of costs that we're talking about this being there. But I believe that, that's essential for us to be able to then achieve the yields, the incremental margins that we've talked about, which is really what this business is all about and the way we should think about it.

所以如果你用每位員工的平均直接人工成本，套用到這樣的人數，並在一個季度內做平均，你就可以大致算出我們所說的成本規模。但我相信這是必要的，因為這樣我們才能達成我們談到的良率、增量利潤率（incremental margins），而這才是這門生意的核心，也是我們應該思考的方式。

So I should just think of it as your structural cost-out number you've spoken to, then obviously variable cost tethered to revenue, but that you're going to have some variable costs lead the revenue recovery as you anticipate it.

所以我應該把它理解為：你提到的結構性 cost-out 數字，然後變動成本會與營收連動，但你們會讓部分變動成本在你們預期的營收復甦之前先行發生。

Exactly. So production works will be taken on. We're preparing, let's say, go to waxing and I say, prep the slurry tanks and then de-mothballing our casting machines and lines so that all of that occurs. So we can take the production on as we go into Q3 and Q4.

沒錯。所以我們會把生產作業接起來。我們在做準備，例如開始上蠟（waxing）、準備漿料槽（slurry tanks），然後讓我們的鑄造機台與產線解除封存、重新啟用（de-mothballing），讓這些都到位。這樣我們在進入 Q3 和 Q4 時，就能承接生產。

Okay. Thank you very much. And I think that concludes today. But if I -- leave the operator to conclude it for us.

好的，非常感謝。我想今天就到這裡。那我——就交給接線員替我們做結束。

We have no further questions in queue. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you all for your participation. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他排隊提問。各位女士、先生，感謝各位的參與。本次電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。