Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Third Quarter 2021 Results. My name is Erica, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2021 年第三季業績發表。我是 Erica，今天將擔任您的電話會議接線員。提醒各位，今天的會議將錄音以供重播之用。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

現在我想把會議交給今天的主持人——投資人關係副總裁 Paul Luther。請開始。

Thank you, Erica. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Third Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session.

謝謝你，Erica。各位早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2021 年第三季業績電話會議。與我一同出席的有執行董事長兼執行長 John Plant，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Ken Giacobbe。在 John 與 Ken 發表談話後，我們將進行問答環節。

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

我想提醒各位，今天的討論將包含與未來事件及預期相關的前瞻性陳述。可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測出現重大差異的因素，已列於今天的簡報與盈餘新聞稿，以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件中。

In addition, we've included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

此外，我們在討論中也包含了一些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表，可在今天的新聞稿以及今天簡報的附錄中找到。接下來，我想把電話交給 John。

Thanks, PT. Good morning, and welcome to the call. We'll move quickly through the slides and then get to your questions.

謝謝，PT。各位早安，歡迎參加本次電話會議。我們會快速帶過投影片，然後進入各位的提問。

First, let's summarize the headline numbers, starting on Slide #4. Revenue was $1.28 billion, adjusted EBITDA $292 million and EBITDA margin was 22.8%. Each number was within the guidance range provided. More importantly, year-over-year revenues increased for the first time. The revenue was led by Commercial Aerospace, up 15% year-over-year, and contributing to a total increase of 13%. Of note, the Howmet segment leading the increase was Engine Products as previously forecasted.

首先，讓我們從第 4 張投影片開始，總結主要數字。營收為 12.8 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.92 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 22.8%。各項數字皆落在先前提供的財測區間內。更重要的是，營收年增率首次轉為成長。營收主要由商用航太帶動，年增 15%，並帶動整體增加 13%。值得注意的是，如先前預期，帶動成長的 Howmet 事業部門為引擎產品（Engine Products）。

The company was also able to overcome the challenges once again of the Boeing 787 build rate declines and the supply chain issues limiting commercial truck production, the 787 affecting Fastening Systems and Engineering Structures in particular. Aluminum prices continued their upward surge with aluminum and regional premiums increasing by over $400 per metric ton sequentially and impacting the margin rate by 20 basis points.

公司也再次克服了波音 787 產量下滑，以及供應鏈問題限制商用卡車生產所帶來的挑戰，其中 787 對緊固系統（Fastening Systems）與工程結構（Engineering Structures）影響尤為明顯。鋁價持續上漲，鋁價與區域溢價（regional premiums）較前一季每公噸合計上升超過 400 美元，使利潤率受到 20 個基點的影響。

Adjusted earnings per share, excluding special items, was $0.27, and cash generated in the quarter was $115 million. AR securitization was unchanged at $250 million. On a sequential basis, Third quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA were up 7% and adjusted earnings per share up 23%.

調整後每股盈餘（不含特殊項目）為 0.27 美元，本季產生的現金為 1.15 億美元。應收帳款（AR）證券化維持不變，為 2.5 億美元。以季比來看，第三季營收與調整後 EBITDA 分別成長 7%，調整後每股盈餘成長 23%。

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was strong at $115 million, which results in a Q3 year-to-date free cash flow at a record $275 million. Ken will provide further details of our debt actions in the quarter, which included a bond tender refinance to fundamentally lower interest costs and thereby improve future free cash flow yield. The combination of debt actions in the third quarter, combined with our first half results and actions, will reduce annual interest expense by approximately $70 million.

接著看資產負債表與現金流。本季調整後自由現金流表現強勁，達 1.15 億美元，使得第三季累計自由現金流創新高，達 2.75 億美元。Ken 將進一步說明我們本季的債務相關作為，其中包括透過債券要約收購（tender）進行再融資，以從根本上降低利息成本，進而提升未來自由現金流殖利率。第三季的債務作為，加上上半年業績與相關行動，將使年度利息費用約減少 7,000 萬美元。

In the quarter, we also repurchased approximately 770,000 shares of common stock for $25 million, which increases share repurchases year-to-date to approximately 7 million shares for $225 million. The net result of all these actions plus the reinstatement of the common stock dividend and the $115 million cash inflow resulted in a cash balance of $726 million, similar to that at the end of Q2.

本季我們也以 2,500 萬美元回購約 77 萬股普通股，使得今年迄今的回購規模提升至約 700 萬股、金額 2.25 億美元。上述所有行動，加上恢復發放普通股股利以及 1.15 億美元的現金流入，使現金餘額達 7.26 億美元，與第二季末水準相近。

Lastly, we continue to focus on legacy liabilities and have reduced pension and OPEB liabilities by approximately $180 million year-to-date. Moreover, year-to-date pension and OPEB expenses have reduced by approximately 50% compared to last year.

最後，我們持續聚焦於歷史遺留負債，今年迄今已將退休金與 OPEB 負債降低約 1.8 億美元。此外，今年迄今的退休金與 OPEB 費用較去年約下降 50%。

Please move to Slide #5. Revenue for the quarter increased 13% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. As expected, Commercial Aerospace was up 15% year-over-year and 16% sequentially, driven by the Engine Products segment and narrow-body aircraft production. Commercial transportation, namely Wheels, was up 38% year-over-year.

請翻到第 5 張投影片。本季營收年增 13%，季增 7%。如預期，商用航太年增 15%、季增 16%，主要由引擎產品事業部門與窄體客機產量帶動。商用運輸（主要為輪圈業務）年增 38%。

Volume was impacted by supply chain constraints, limiting the Commercial Truck production. The volume reduction in the Wheels business was offset by metal recovery dollars. The industrial gas turbine business continues to grow and was up 26% year-over-year and 6% sequentially, driven by new builds and spares. Defense Aerospace was down 11% year-over-year, driven by reductions in the Joint Strike Fighter builds, but was up 3% sequentially from the second quarter.

受供應鏈限制影響，商用卡車產量受限，進而影響出貨量。輪圈業務的出貨量下滑，已由金屬回收收益（metal recovery dollars）所抵銷。工業燃氣渦輪業務持續成長，年增 26%、季增 6%，由新機建造與備品需求帶動。國防航太年減 11%，主要因聯合打擊戰鬥機（Joint Strike Fighter）產量下降，但較第二季季增 3%。

At the bottom of the slide, you can see the progress on price, cost reduction and cash management. Price increases are up year-over-year and continue to be in line with expectations. Structural cost reductions have exceeded our annual target of $100 million. Q3 structural cost reductions were $23 million year-over-year and $121 million year-to-date. Every segment achieved a strong year-on-year margin expansion as revenue increased for the first time in the year in aggregate.

在投影片底部，各位可以看到我們在價格、成本降低與現金管理方面的進展。價格調升較去年增加，且持續符合預期。結構性成本降低已超過我們年度 1 億美元的目標。第三季結構性成本降低較去年同期為 2,300 萬美元，今年迄今為 1.21 億美元。隨著整體營收今年首次呈現年增，各事業部門皆實現強勁的年對年利潤率擴張。

In the third quarter, Engine Products had an incremental operating margin of approximately 70%, and Forged Wheels had an incremental operating margin of approximately 45%. Fastening Systems and Engineering Structures both had a higher EBITDA on lower revenue. Fasteners had an operating margin expansion of some 630 basis points, while structures was up 210 basis points. As a result, Howmet's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded a full 800 basis points year-on-year, driven by volume, price and structural cost reductions.

第三季，引擎產品的增量營業利益率約為 70%，鍛造輪圈（Forged Wheels）的增量營業利益率約為 45%。緊固系統與工程結構在營收較低的情況下，EBITDA 仍更高。緊固件（Fasteners）的營業利益率擴張約 630 個基點，而結構業務上升 210 個基點。因此，Howmet 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率年對年擴張整整 800 個基點，主要由出貨量、價格與結構性成本降低所帶動。

Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $115 million and year-to-date, $275 million, as I said previously. AR securitization is unchanged from the start of the year. Lastly, we have lowered our annualized interest cost by $70 million through a combination of paying down debt and refinancing into low-cost debt.

本季調整後自由現金流為 1.15 億美元，今年迄今為 2.75 億美元，如我先前所述。應收帳款（AR）證券化自年初以來維持不變。最後，我們透過償還部分債務並再融資為低成本債務的組合措施，使年化利息成本降低 7,000 萬美元。

Please move to Slide #6. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 22.8%, representing an 800 basis point improvement compared to the third quarter of 2020. The margin for the third quarter was consistent with the last few quarters, despite the cost of adding employees to meet the increasing production demand and the effect on margins of the higher aluminum prices.

請翻到第 6 張投影片。本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 22.8%，較 2020 年第三季改善 800 個基點。儘管為因應日益增加的生產需求而增聘員工所帶來的成本，以及鋁價上漲對利潤率的影響，本季利潤率仍與過去幾季一致。

In the quarter, Engine Products added approximately 500 employees net, which now brings the total to 800 net additional employees hired for that segment during the second and third quarters. We continue to review the headcount required in our other segments to adjust for future demand requirements.

本季，引擎產品淨增加約 500 名員工，使該事業部門在第二季與第三季合計淨增聘員工達 800 人。我們也持續檢視其他事業部門所需的人力編制，以因應未來需求。

Now let me turn it over to Ken for further details on revenue by market and the detailed financials.

現在我把電話交給 Ken，請他進一步說明依市場別的營收，以及更詳細的財務資訊。

Thank you, John. Please move to markets on Slide 7. Third quarter total revenue was up 13% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. Commercial Aerospace increased to 42% of total revenue, which is an improvement sequentially, but far short of pre-COVID levels of 60%. The third quarter marked the start of the Commercial Aerospace recovery, with commercial aerospace revenue up 15% year-over-year and 16% sequentially. Defense Aerospace was down 11% year-over-year, driven by the Joint Strike Fighter and up 3% sequentially.

謝謝你，John。請翻到第 7 頁的市場概況。第三季總營收年增 13%，季增 7%。商用航太占總營收比重提升至 42%，較前一季改善，但仍遠低於 COVID 前 60% 的水準。第三季標誌著商用航太復甦的開始，商用航太營收年增 15%，季增 16%。國防航太營收年減 11%，主要受聯合打擊戰鬥機（Joint Strike Fighter）影響，但季增 3%。

Commercial Transportation, which impacts both the Forged Wheels and Fastening Systems segments was up 38% year-over-year, however, flat sequentially after we adjust for the increase in aluminum prices. Finally, the Industrial and Other Markets, which is composed of IGT, oil and gas and general industrial was up 14% year-over-year and down 2% sequentially. IGT, which makes up approximately 45% of this market, continues to be strong and was up a healthy 26% year-over-year and 6% sequentially.

商用運輸市場（同時影響鍛造輪圈與緊固系統兩個事業部）年增 38%，但在調整鋁價上漲因素後，季比持平。最後，工業及其他市場（由 IGT、油氣與一般工業組成）年增 14%，季減 2%。IGT 約占該市場 45%，表現持續強勁，年增達 26%，季增 6%。

Let's move to Slide 8 for the segment results. As expected, Engine Products year-over-year revenue was 24% higher in the third quarter. Commercial Aerospace was 50% higher, driven by the narrow-body recovery. IGT was 26% higher as demand for cleaner energy continues. Defense Aerospace was down 8% year-over-year, but up 7% sequentially.

我們翻到第 8 頁看各事業部表現。如預期，第三季引擎產品（Engine Products）營收年增 24%。商用航太年增 50%，主要受窄體機復甦帶動。隨著潔淨能源需求持續，IGT 年增 26%。國防航太營收年減 8%，但季增 7%。

Incremental margins for Engine Products were approximately 70% for the quarter despite hiring back approximately 500 workers to prepare for future growth. Operating margin improved 1,200 basis points year-over-year. In the appendix of the presentation, we have provided a schedule which shows each segment's incremental margins for the quarter.

本季引擎產品的增量毛利率（incremental margins）約為 70%，儘管我們為因應未來成長回聘約 500 名員工。營業利益率年增改善 1,200 個基點。在簡報附錄中，我們提供了一份明細表，顯示各事業部本季的增量毛利率。

Please move to Slide 9. Also as expected, Fastening Systems year-over-year revenue was 6% lower in the third quarter. Commercial Aerospace was 25% lower as we saw continued production declines for the Boeing 787 and customer inventory corrections. The commercial transportation and industrial markets within the Fastening Systems segments were [up] (added by company after the call) approximately 55% and 19% year-over-year, respectively. Year-over-year Fastening Systems was able to generate $14 million more in operating profit, while revenue declined $17 million. As a result, operating margin improved 630 basis points.

請翻到第 9 頁。如預期，第三季緊固系統（Fastening Systems）營收年減 6%。商用航太年減 25%，因波音 787 持續減產以及客戶庫存修正。緊固系統事業部中的商用運輸與工業市場，分別年增約 55% 與 19%。緊固系統在營收減少 1,700 萬美元的情況下，仍能使營業利益年增增加 1,400 萬美元。因此，營業利益率改善 630 個基點。

Please move to Slide 10. Engineered Structures year-over-year revenue was 3% lower in the third quarter. Commercial Aerospace was 13% higher as the narrow-body recovery was partially offset by production declines for the Boeing 787. Defense Aerospace was down 21% year-over-year, but was flat sequentially. Year-over-year, Engineered Structures was able to generate $4 million more in operating profit on $7 million of lower revenue. As a result, operating margin improved 210 basis points.

請翻到第 10 頁。第三季工程結構（Engineered Structures）營收年減 3%。商用航太年增 13%，窄體機復甦部分抵銷了波音 787 減產的影響。國防航太年減 21%，但季比持平。工程結構在營收年減 700 萬美元的情況下，仍能使營業利益年增增加 400 萬美元。因此，營業利益率改善 210 個基點。

Finally, please move to Slide 11. Forged Wheels year-over-year revenue was 34% higher in the third quarter. On a sequential basis, revenue and operating profit were essentially flat. The segment was able to overcome a 4% decrease in volume due to customer supply chain issues limiting commercial truck production, and a 13% increase in aluminum prices to maintain a healthy operating margin of approximately 27%. Year-over-year incremental margins for Forged Wheels were approximately 45% for the quarter. Improved margins were driven by continued cost management and maximizing production in low-cost countries.

最後，請翻到第 11 頁。第三季鍛造輪圈（Forged Wheels）營收年增 34%。以季比來看，營收與營業利益基本持平。該事業部克服了因客戶供應鏈問題限制商用卡車產量而導致的 4% 出貨量下滑，以及鋁價上漲 13% 的不利因素，仍維持約 27% 的健康營業利益率。鍛造輪圈本季年比增量毛利率約為 45%。毛利率改善主要來自持續的成本管理，以及在低成本國家最大化產能。

Now let's move to Slide 12. We continue to focus on improving our capital structure and liquidity. I would highlight 3 actions. First, in the first half of the year, we paid down approximately $835 million of debt by completing the early redemption of our 2021 and 2022 bonds with cash on hand. The annualized interest expense savings with this action is approximately $47 million.

現在請翻到第 12 頁。我們持續聚焦於改善資本結構與流動性。我想強調三項行動。第一，在上半年，我們以手頭現金完成 2021 與 2022 年到期債券的提前贖回，償還約 8.35 億美元的債務。此舉帶來的年化利息費用節省約 4,700 萬美元。

Second, in the third quarter we tendered $600 million of our 6.875% notes due in 2025 and issued $700 million of 3% notes due in 2029. The annualized interest expense savings with this action is approximately $20 million.

第二，第三季我們對 2025 年到期、票面利率 6.875% 的票據提出 6 億美元的要約收購（tender），並發行 7 億美元、票面利率 3%、2029 年到期的票據。此舉帶來的年化利息費用節省約 2,000 萬美元。

Third, with cash on hand, we repurchased $100 million of our [2024] (corrected by company after the call) notes through an open market repurchase in Q3 and in October, which neutralized the gross debt impact of the tender and refinancing. The annualized interest expense saving with this action is approximately $5 million.

第三，我們以手頭現金在第三季透過公開市場回購方式回購 1 億美元的 [2024]（公司於電話會議後更正）票據，並於 10 月進一步操作，使要約收購與再融資對總負債的影響得以中和。此舉帶來的年化利息費用節省約 500 萬美元。

As a result of these actions, we have lowered annualized interest costs by approximately $70 million and smoothed out our future debt maturities. At the end of Q3, gross debt was approximately $4.2 billion, which is similar to Q2. Net debt to EBITDA improved from 3.5x in Q2 to 3.2x despite the deployment of cash for debt refinancing, share buybacks, and dividends. All debt is unsecured, and the next maturity is in October of 2024. Finally, our $1 billion revolving credit facility remains undrawn.

綜合上述行動，我們將年化利息成本降低約 7,000 萬美元，並使未來債務到期結構更為平滑。截至第三季末，總負債約 42 億美元，與第二季相近。儘管動用現金進行債務再融資、庫藏股回購與股利發放，淨負債／EBITDA 仍由第二季的 3.5 倍改善至 3.2 倍。所有債務均為無擔保，下一筆到期日在 2024 年 10 月。最後，我們 10 億美元的循環信用額度仍未動用。

Before turning it back to John to discuss guidance, I would like to point out that there's a slide in the appendix that covers special items for the quarter. Special items for the third quarter were a net charge of approximately $93 million, mainly driven by the costs associated with the bond tender and refinancing completed in the quarter.

在把時間交回給 John 討論財測之前，我想指出附錄中有一頁涵蓋本季的特殊項目。第三季特殊項目為淨費用約 9,300 萬美元，主要來自本季完成的債券要約收購與再融資相關成本。

Now let me turn it back over to John.

現在我把時間交回給 John。

Thanks, Ken. The leading indicators for air travel continue to show improvement, notably for domestic travel. But also we note the sort of revised requirements or these restrictions being lifted for, certainly, transatlantic travel starting this month. As expected, Howmet transitioned to revenue growth in the third quarter, and we expect year-over-year revenue growth will continue into the fourth quarter and to 2022, with a growth of approximately 12% in commercial aerospace and total revenue growth in the fourth quarter of approximately 6%. Growth is expected to continue in 2022.

謝謝，Ken。航空旅行的領先指標持續改善，尤其是國內旅遊。同時我們也注意到，針對跨大西洋旅行的相關要求修訂或限制解除，確實將從本月開始。如預期，Howmet 在第三季轉為營收成長；我們預期年比營收成長將延續至第四季並延伸到 2022 年，其中商用航太約成長 12%，第四季總營收約成長 6%。預期 2022 年將持續成長。

As expected, the Engine Products business began to grow notably in the third quarter. We expect modest sequential growth in Q4 for Engineered Structures despite continued delays with the 787. Fastening Systems is expected to show growth in the first half of 2022.

如預期，引擎產品業務在第三季開始明顯成長。儘管 787 仍持續延遲，我們預期工程結構在第四季將呈現溫和的季比成長。緊固系統預期將在 2022 年上半年展現成長。

In terms of specific numbers, we expect the following: In terms of guidance for Q4, I'll just call out the midpoints, as you can read the slide: Revenue, $1.315 billion; EBITDA, $300 million; EBITDA margin, 22.8%; earnings per share of $0.29. And for the year, we expect revenue to be $5 billion, plus or minus; EBITDA at $1.135 billion; EBITDA margin at 22.7%; earnings per share increased to $1 per share; and cash flow of $450 million.

就具體數字而言，我們預期如下：第四季財測我僅點出中位數（其餘可參考投影片）：營收 13.15 億美元；EBITDA 3 億美元；EBITDA 利潤率 22.8%；每股盈餘 0.29 美元。全年方面，我們預期營收約 50 億美元（上下浮動）；EBITDA 11.35 億美元；EBITDA 利潤率 22.7%；每股盈餘上調至 1 美元；現金流 4.5 億美元。

Moving to the right-hand side of the slide, we expect the following: Second half revenue to be up approximately 8% versus the first half driven by Commercial Aerospace, Commercial Transportation and IGT; Q4 sequential segment incremental operating margins, we expect to be in the order of 28%. Price increases will continue to be greater than 2020, the cost-reduction carryover of $100 million, as already commented, is exceeded. Pension and OPEB contributions of approximately $120 million and CapEx should be in the range of $180 million to $200 million compared to depreciation of approximately $270 million.

移到投影片右側，我們預期如下：下半年營收相較上半年約成長8%，主要由商用航太、商用運輸與 IGT 帶動；第四季各事業部門的序列性增量營業利益率，我們預期約在28%左右。漲價幅度將持續高於2020年；如先前所述，1億美元的成本削減延續效益已被超越。退休金與 OPEB 提撥約1.2億美元，資本支出（CapEx）應落在1.8億至2.0億美元區間，相較之下折舊約為2.7億美元。

Adjusted free cash flow compared to net income continues to be approximately 100%. I'd now like to preview some initial thoughts regarding 2022. An early approximate total revenue guide would be for an increase in annual revenues of 12% to 15%, led by recovery in Commercial Aerospace. In aggregate, our current view is that we see an acceleration during the course of the year, following a fairly flat first quarter compared to the fourth quarter this year, except for increased revenues due to metal recovery. We'll refine this view and provide guidance at our earnings call in February 2022.

調整後自由現金流相對於淨利仍約為100%。接下來我想先分享一些對2022年的初步想法。初步的全年總營收指引大致為年營收成長12%至15%，主要由商用航太復甦帶動。整體而言，我們目前的看法是，全年將呈現逐步加速的走勢；第一季相較今年第四季大致持平，惟金屬回收帶來的營收增加除外。我們將進一步精煉此觀點，並在2022年2月的法說會提供指引。

Now let's move to Slide 14 for the summary. We delivered strong performance in the third quarter, which was in line with guidance. Growth was very healthy, year-on-year and sequentially. Incrementals were truly exceptional, and the company's margin is in the top decile in aerospace. Q3 started -- or marked the start of the Commercial Aerospace recovery. Moreover, we delivered sequential improvements in both EBITDA and earnings per share. We'll continue to manage costs very carefully during this recovery phase. Liquidity is strong, and we have very healthy cash generation.

現在請看投影片14的總結。我們在第三季交出強勁表現，符合指引。年增與季增的成長都相當健康。增量表現確實非常出色，公司利潤率在航太產業位居前十分位。第三季開始——或可說標誌著商用航太復甦的起點。此外，我們在 EBITDA 與每股盈餘方面也都實現了序列性改善。在此復甦階段，我們將持續非常謹慎地管理成本。流動性強勁，且現金創造能力非常健康。

The fourth quarter, for our -- revenue outlook is $30 million higher than the third quarter, with margins of approximately 23%, which sets a platform for a healthy 2022. Adjusted earnings per share guidance was increased, reflecting lower interest costs.

第四季方面，我們的營收展望較第三季高出3,000萬美元，利潤率約為23%，這為2022年健康發展奠定平台。調整後每股盈餘指引上調，反映利息成本降低。

Thank you, and we'll now take your questions.

謝謝，接下來我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Seth Seifman。

I guess maybe starting off, if you could tell us where you expect to exit the year on -- in terms of rate on the 2 major narrow-body programs, on 737 and A320?

我想先從這裡開始，如果可以的話，能否請你們談談在兩個主要窄體機專案——737 與 A320——今年年底你們預期的產量速率會是多少？

Okay. For A320, the 45 rate that Airbus has called out seems to be the right number. In terms of Boeing, I've seen so many numbers that it's really hard for us to know exactly what's the correct one. So I'm going to go with the published skyline at 14 aircraft per month, even though I've seen reports of -- last July on the 16 number, which I didn't recognize then and the 19 number. So I don't know, Seth. I'm going to stick with my 14 with the expectation that lifts in the first quarter next year.

好的。就 A320 而言，Airbus 公布的每月45架速率看起來是合理的數字。至於波音，我看過太多不同的數字，對我們來說很難判斷哪個才是正確的。所以我會採用已公布的產量規劃（skyline）每月14架，儘管我也看過報導——去年7月提到每月16架（我當時並不認同）以及每月19架。所以我也不確定，Seth。我會先維持14架的看法，並預期明年第一季會上調。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

John, I think I'll follow up on Seth's question with regard to the Boeing 787. Where are you at the moment? And what have you baked into that 2022 revenue number with regard to what the 787 deliveries could do?

John，我想就 Seth 的問題延伸追問波音 787。你們目前的狀況如何？另外，就你剛提到的2022年營收數字而言，你們對 787 交付可能帶來的影響，已經納入了哪些假設？

Okay. So first of all, our original expectation, if you went back 6 months, it was the 787 would continue through this year at rate 5 per month. Clearly, with Boeing wanting to reduce that in the latter part of the year.

好的。首先，如果回到6個月前，我們原先的預期是 787 今年會維持每月5架的速率。但很明顯，波音希望在今年後段降低該速率。

As far as we can see, Boeing were in a 0 build condition for 90 days. And while they've adjusted the rate for the fourth quarter to 2, my thought has been it's been a 0 build and then it'll be built at maybe 4 a month to average that 2. I don't really know. There's some speculation that maybe have built at 2, but it's pretty opaque to us.

就我們所見，波音有90天處於零生產（0 build）的狀態。雖然他們把第四季的速率調整為2架，但我的想法是：先是零生產，之後可能以每月4架生產，平均下來才會是2架。我也不確定。也有人推測可能就是以每月2架在生產，但對我們來說資訊相當不透明。

The most important factor is when does recertification occur because whether they build or don't build, it's going to come out of inventory. And we've seen inventories drop as well. And so suppliers into the 787 have been low, and we expect them to continue to be low in the fourth quarter.

最重要的因素是何時完成重新認證（recertification），因為不論他們生產或不生產，交付都會先從庫存出貨。我們也看到庫存正在下降。因此，供應給 787 的供應商目前出貨量偏低，我們預期第四季仍將維持偏低。

And then the question is what will the rate be in 2022. Our thought at this point is that maybe a 2022 annual build might be 48 aircrafts, don't know. We've had to make some guesstimates, and that's provided for in that 12% to 15% volume increase that I talked about in revenues as an initial thought for 2022. And that takes account of what we think the balance of probability is across all of the end markets that we serve.

接著問題是2022年的產量速率會是多少。我們目前的想法是，2022年全年生產量可能約48架，但不確定。我們必須做一些估算，而這些已反映在我先前提到、作為2022年初步想法的營收12%至15%成長之中。這也納入了我們對所服務各終端市場之機率權衡後的判斷。

And maybe I'll just continue a bit first to give a better color is when you consider the overall uncertainty in the industry regarding liquidation of inventories and in particular, the -- in wide-body, and the fact that it'll probably be flat for a further 12 months, the supply chain issues, which are certainly very newsworthy but are real. And indeed caused truck production to be lower in the third quarter, that's also combined with the annual shutdowns in Europe.

我再補充一些背景以便更清楚：考量到產業對去化庫存的不確定性，尤其是廣體機領域，而且可能還會再持平12個月；再加上供應鏈問題——確實很受關注，也確實存在。而且這些問題確實導致第三季卡車產量較低，另外也疊加了歐洲的年度停工。

And then, of course, this, I'm going to call, 0-build condition or is it only 2 on the 787. Then I think the sequential growth is outstanding. And all we're doing is not debating the fact of recovery, but what's the exact angle of the slope of recovery, and that's about it really, Rob.

再加上當然還有我稱之為 787 的零生產狀態——或其實只是每月2架。在這些背景下，我認為序列性成長是非常突出的。我們並不是在爭論是否復甦，而是在討論復甦斜率的精確角度到底是多少，差不多就是這樣，Rob。

Yes. Just one clarification, John. Are you therefore, assuming that the destock on the 787 is now done and you're basically going to be following the Boeing build rate?

是的。John，我再確認一點。所以你的假設是 787 的去庫存現在已經結束，接下來基本上就會跟著波音的生產速率走？

You tell me what the build rate's going to be, and I'll tell you the destock is where I find myself. No, it's not trying to be clever about the response to your question. But I find myself in a position where we've been grappling all year with moving end markets. You're grappling with all the different end markets moving at different rates, whether it's industrial or commercial transportation or commercial aero or defense and you've got all of these things moving around. And then you overlay that with some very specific issues at Boeing, which we know about but none of us knows the recertification date. And in fact, Boeing have not provided that guidance either themselves.

你告訴我生產速率會是多少，我就能告訴你去庫存進行到哪裡——我目前就是這種狀態。這不是想耍聰明來回答你的問題。但我今年一直在努力應對終端市場的變動。你得面對各個終端市場以不同速度變動，不論是工業、商用運輸、商用航太或國防，這些都在變來變去。然後你再把波音的一些非常特定的問題疊加上去——我們知道有這些問題，但沒有人知道重新認證日期。事實上，波音自己也沒有提供這方面的指引。

Our next question comes from the line of Myles Walton with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的 Myles Walton。

I was wondering if I can ask 1 detail and 1 question about '22. In the detail one, I think the Structures business was more anticipated to be a fourth quarter growth. And obviously, you saw some pretty great sequential growth here in Structures and out of commercial aero in particular. Could you maybe talk to why that happened a little bit sooner? And then secondarily, the defense expectation for 2022, can you just benchmark where that is in the 12% to 15% top line?

我想問一個細節問題，以及一個關於2022年的問題。先談細節：我記得結構件（Structures）業務原本更被預期會在第四季成長。但你們在結構件、尤其是商用航太方面，這一季已經看到相當不錯的序列性成長。能否談談為什麼會提早發生一些？另外，2022年國防業務的預期，你能否在12%至15%的營收成長中，幫我們對照一下國防大概占在哪個位置？

Yes. So let me deal with Structures first. I think that the growth is a little bit higher than the third quarter. I think it would be similar for fourth. And then depending on 787, I could see some inventory correction in the first quarter. I don't know enough yet to really know.

是的。那我先談結構（Structures）。我認為成長會比第三季略高一些。我覺得第四季也會類似。然後視 787 的情況而定，我可能會在第一季看到一些庫存修正。我目前還不夠了解，還無法真正判斷。

In terms of defense, of course, we all know that there's a little bit of seasonality to that, where we do get a second half lift generally, which is a little bit of payback in the first quarter on a use-it-or-lose-it basis for defense budgets for spares in particular.

就國防而言，當然，我們都知道那裡有一點季節性，通常下半年會有拉升，而第一季則會有些回吐，因為國防預算在備品（尤其是備件）方面有「不用就作廢」的特性。

Defense, for next year, I'm guessing at this point that -- I'm not going to get too far into '22. But I'll say, fairly flat, if anything, given what Raytheon said about the rate reduction in engine that they see on the, let's say, the original equipment build side. Then that will be fairly muted for us. And then maybe there'll be some pickup on the spares side. So it's difficult to really know there.

國防方面，對明年而言，我目前的猜測是——我不打算太深入談到 2022 年。但我會說，大致持平，若有變化也不大，考量到雷神（Raytheon）提到他們在引擎端看到的、在所謂原廠設備（OEM）製造端的產量下調。那對我們的影響會相當有限。然後備件端可能會有一些回升。所以那部分確實很難判斷。

And then the question is, to what degree we'll see level loading from the -- from Lockheed on the overall business. So best guess is, at the moment, I'd say we shouldn't be anticipating too much by way of defense growth next year. But we should be expecting good growth in terms of the narrow-body commercial aircraft production and continuing growth in IGT. Also we do anticipate some of these supply chain constraints will be affecting the commercial truck business to move away certainly by the second half of the year. It's all contained in that 12% to 15% best guess. And I do want to call it a best guess rather than a guide at this point.

接著問題是，我們會在多大程度上看到洛克希德（Lockheed）在整體業務上的均衡排產（level loading）。所以目前最好的猜測是，我會說我們不應該預期明年國防會有太多成長。但我們應該期待窄體商用飛機產量有良好成長，以及 IGT 持續成長。另外，我們也預期這些供應鏈限制對商用卡車業務的影響，最晚到下半年應該會逐步消退。這些都包含在我們所說的 12% 到 15% 的最佳猜測之中。而且我想強調，現階段我稱之為最佳猜測，而不是指引（guide）。

Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 David Strauss。

So John, obviously, the announcement here recently, you've decided to stay on a bit longer. Maybe a little bit of color on your thinking there and how might longer, how might -- longer might that be?

John，很明顯，最近這個公告，你決定再多留任一段時間。能否多談一些你這樣想的原因，以及可能會延長多久——或者說，延長可能會是多長？

Well, sorry, you're disappointed, David, if my being around is going to sort of plague your life a little bit longer. But -- no, basically, the color I'd give you is that the Board concluded that Tolga wasn't demonstrating the leadership they felt necessary to succeed myself, simple as that.

嗯，抱歉讓你失望了，David，如果我繼續在這裡會讓你的生活再多被困擾一陣子。不過——基本上，我能給你的說法是，董事會認為 Tolga 沒有展現出他們覺得接替我所必需的領導力，就這麼簡單。

I think it's great credit to the Board that they stepped up and made a determination and exercised that judgment. It's one of the most important things that a Board does. I've said that I'm willing to continue to lead Howmet through the aerospace recovery. As I talked about, all with all the different changes in all these end markets that we've covered already, but certainly discuss again that I think that'll hopefully be to the benefit of the company. And with no specific end dates provided, so yes, I'm going to be talking to you for some time.

我認為董事會能挺身而出、做出判斷並運用這樣的裁量，是非常值得肯定的。這是董事會最重要的職責之一。我也說過，我願意繼續帶領 Howmet 度過航太復甦期。如我所談到的，面對我們已經涵蓋過、但當然也可以再討論的各終端市場的各種變化，我希望這能對公司有利。而且目前沒有提供具體的結束日期，所以，是的，我還會跟你們聊上一段時間。

Our next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Gautam Khanna。

A couple of questions -- maybe a 2-part question. Just curious, you gave a ballpark range for sales for next year. Do you want to venture a guess on EBITDA margin, adjusted EPS, just to calibrate people in front of the formal guide that's going to happen next quarter? Just maybe if you can talk through some of the moving pieces.

有幾個問題——也許算是兩段式問題。我想了解，你給了明年營收的大致區間。你是否願意猜一下 EBITDA 利潤率、調整後 EPS，讓大家在下季正式指引出來前先校準一下？也許你可以談談其中一些變動因素。

I don't really want to get that far ahead of myself, Gautam. I feel positive about next year. I'm convinced that -- I can convince myself anyway that when we do guide, it'll be healthy for next year without, again, saying what exactly what I mean by healthy, because I don't want to give specific numbers for increased EBITDA and earnings per share.

Gautam，我不太想把話說得那麼超前。我對明年感到樂觀。我相信——至少我能說服自己——等到我們提供指引時，明年會是健康的一年；但我不想明確定義「健康」是什麼，因為我不想給出 EBITDA 與每股盈餘成長的具體數字。

But right now, despite all the, I'll call it, uncertainties, and of course, as you know, many companies are still not providing much by way of guidance or sometimes none at all, is that we feel confident enough to give you what we've already given you. And I feel confident enough to say that 2022 will be a healthy year for us. And that will be a combination of both -- for both EBITDA and for cash flow.

但就目前而言，儘管存在我所稱的各種不確定性——而且如你所知，許多公司仍然不太提供指引，有時甚至完全不提供——我們仍有足夠信心給出我們已經提供的內容。而且我也有足夠信心說，2022 年對我們而言會是健康的一年。這將同時反映在 EBITDA 與現金流上。

Okay. And one other thing, we've heard incrementally some concerns about in the auto industry related to magnesium and what have you. I just -- I'm curious, is this -- are you seeing incrementally more difficult pinch points emerge? I mean, just -- I know since last quarter, it sounds like things have gotten tougher on the supply chain.

好的。另外一點，我們逐步聽到汽車產業對鎂等材料有一些疑慮。我只是好奇，是否你們也看到更多新的瓶頸點變得更難？我的意思是——我知道從上季以來，聽起來供應鏈情況變得更吃緊了。

Yes. We're not a massive user. We've already covered through the next few months and so no big deal for Howmet now.

是的。我們不是大量使用者。我們已經覆蓋到接下來幾個月，所以目前對 Howmet 來說不是什麼大問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Matt Akers。

Actually kind of to follow up on the last one. I guess some of the concerns I've heard is the magnesium shortage potentially close to do [with] kind of less aluminum. And I guess, is that an area where you guys are seeing any risk of lack of material availability or just kind of how long are you covered with sort of the inventory that's available?

其實是想接續上一題。我聽到的一些擔憂是鎂短缺可能會導致（與）鋁供應變少之類的情況。我想問，這是否是你們看到任何材料供應不足風險的領域？或者你們目前可用的庫存大概能支撐多久？

Yes. I really don't believe that we're going to be calling out lack of magnesium as an issue for us meeting any guide that we give you at all. We looked at it recently. I can't remember the exact numbers, but both when you look at the amount we use and then the, I'll say, the contract commitments we've got, we assess it in an okay territory.

是的。我真的不認為我們會把鎂短缺列為影響我們達成任何所提供指引的問題。我們最近看過了。我不記得確切數字，但不論是看我們的用量，或是我們已有的合約承諾，我們評估都還在可接受的範圍內。

So it's not top of mind in terms of my worries. In fact, on the aero side, I don't really have much by way of input materials concerns at all. And the only time I have a concern is the way it affects our customers on the Commercial Transportation side.

所以這不是我最擔心的事情。事實上，在航太端，我幾乎沒有任何投入材料方面的疑慮。我唯一會擔心的是，它如何影響我們在商用運輸（Commercial Transportation）端的客戶。

Our next question comes from the line of Paretosh Misra with Berenberg.

下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Paretosh Misra。

I had a question on your metal pass-through. So EBITDA margins are somewhat affected in the Wheels business because of the aluminum pass-through. But in the commercial aerospace business, we don't see a similar impact, even though the nickel prices have been very high, and I'm sure the other metal prices also went up. Is it because just that metal price is a much smaller component in aerospace? Or is there some difference in how revenues recorded in the 2 businesses?

我有一個關於你們金屬轉嫁（metal pass-through）的問題。由於鋁價轉嫁，Wheels 業務的 EBITDA 利潤率會受到一些影響。但在商用航太業務中，我們沒有看到類似的影響，儘管鎳價一直很高，我也確定其他金屬價格也上漲了。這是因為金屬成本在航太中占比小得多嗎？還是兩個業務在收入認列方式上有差異？

No. I mean, the principle is exactly the same, Paretosh. So I rarely call out things. So for example, you don't hear me talking about bad weather in Texas. You don't hear me talking about a particular press going down, I don't talk too much about labor and this sort of stuff. It's just work for us, just normal course of business.

不是。我的意思是，原則完全一樣，Paretosh。我很少特別點出這些事情。例如，你不會聽到我談德州的惡劣天氣。你不會聽到我談某台特定的壓機停機，我也不太談勞動力之類的事情。對我們來說這些就是工作，是正常的營運過程。

And indeed, for the -- for margins, if you look at nickel, cobalt, all of these metals into our aerospace segments, they've also had very significant increases. It has aluminum into some of the bulkheads in our Structures business, and some elements of titanium, although titanium has been pretty muted in aggregate.

而且確實，就利潤率而言，如果你看鎳、鈷，以及所有這些進入我們航太事業群的金屬，它們也都有非常顯著的漲幅。在我們的 Structures 業務中，部分隔框（bulkheads）也會用到鋁，還有一些鈦的元素，雖然整體而言鈦的變動相對溫和。

So I just look at all of those things and say, I tend not to call out much. It's just that I think it was on the last call where it was Seth from JPM that was asking specifically about Wheels and the margin, and it's very noticeable for that segment. And so I had to comment about it. And basically, this quarter is exactly the same. So there's a metal impact.

所以我只是把所有這些事情都看過一遍，然後說，我通常不太會特別點名講太多。只是我記得在上一次電話會議上，JPM 的 Seth 特別問到 Wheels（車輪）以及毛利率，而在那個事業部門這點非常明顯。所以我必須對此做個說明。基本上，本季的情況完全一樣。所以有金屬成本的影響。

So last quarter, it was, like, at the company level, because I don't really get into it at the segment level, it was 30 basis points. And this quarter, it's about 20 basis points of impact. And I just called it out for the -- for that Wheels segment. And obviously, if I wanted to, I'd be saying to you things like, well, 22.8 really is 23. And if I added a bit more on for aerospace, it's higher than that. But it's like I don't think it's worthy. And so just don't comment, just move on.

所以上一季，在公司整體層級——因為我其實不太會深入到事業部門層級——影響大約是 30 個基點。而這一季影響大約是 20 個基點。我只是針對 Wheels 那個部門把它點出來。而且很明顯，如果我想的話，我可以跟你說像是，嗯，22.8 其實就是 23。如果我再把航太那邊多加一點進來，會比那更高。但我覺得不值得。所以就不要評論了，直接往下走。

Our job is to manage these things. And one day when metal begins to abate and goes the other way, maybe I won't be calling it out when things are really good either. So that's about it. But if you want to, use 20 or 30 basis points for aluminum impact on the total WholeCo for Howmet year-to-date.

我們的工作就是管理這些事情。而有一天當金屬價格開始緩和、走向相反方向時，也許在情況非常好的時候，我也不會特別把它拿出來講。大概就是這樣。但如果你想要一個數字，可以用 20 或 30 個基點，作為 Howmet 年初至今在整體 WholeCo 層級的鋁材影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Noah Poponak。

John, I just wanted to see if I could make sure I understand where Fastening Systems is and it's kind of sequential process since it started to decline later, and I think it still has some inventory destocking.

John，我只是想確認我是否理解 Fastening Systems（緊固系統）目前的狀況，以及自從它較晚開始下滑以來的那種逐季變化過程；而且我認為它仍然有一些庫存去化（destocking）。

It sounds like you're expecting that to be kind of flat sequentially in the fourth quarter. And then I think previously, you talked about it growing year-over-year in the first quarter, which would require a decent sequential step up. Is that the right shape? And just maybe you could talk about where that segment is in terms of snapping back to the actual end demand.

聽起來你預期第四季在季比上大致持平。然後我記得你之前談到第一季會年比成長，而那就需要相當不錯的季比跳升。這樣的走勢形狀是對的嗎？另外也許你可以談談，該部門在回到實際終端需求（end demand）方面，目前處於什麼位置。

Yes. If you listened to my words carefully, what I spoke to earlier, I actually used the word first half rather than the first quarter. I don't mean by sleight of hand, but at least I'll call it out and be open about it, is that previously, we'd said that the destocking -- and in particular, the washout through wide-body, would likely be complete by the end of the year, and we start to see improvements in the first quarter of next year.

是的。如果你仔細聽我先前的用詞，我其實用的是「上半年」而不是「第一季」。我不是想耍什麼文字遊戲，但至少我會把它點出來並坦白說明：我們之前說過去庫存（destocking）——特別是廣體機（wide-body）那邊的出清（washout）——很可能在年底前完成，然後我們會在明年第一季開始看到改善。

I want to be a little bit more cautious today. And essentially, I'm going to hang it all on 787 because, as I said earlier, I don't know exactly the build, but then neither does anybody seem to know the exact build. And so my assumption is that it's less likely that it will be back at rate 5 in January. And so based upon that, I'm going to say it's more like a Q2 effect.

但今天我想更保守一點。基本上，我會把重點都放在 787 上，因為如我先前所說，我不確定確切的生產組裝量（build），而且看起來也沒有人真的知道確切的 build。所以我的假設是，它在一月回到每月 5 架的機率比較低。因此基於這點，我會說影響更像是第二季（Q2）的效果。

But again, you tell me 787, I'll tell you what Fasteners does because it's significant in the life of that business. And my assumption is the rest is pretty flat, wide-body, by improving on narrowbody. So it's really difficult to be precise on any of this at this point in time. That's why all I know is that recovery is occurring, revenues are going up. And the only thing we are really debating here is just what exactly is the angle, that requires us to make a judgment around labor inputs. The rest just falls into place when we know the angle of the upswing.

但再說一次，你告訴我 787 的情況，我就能告訴你 Fasteners（緊固件）會怎麼走，因為那對這個業務的影響很大。而我的假設是，其餘部分大致持平：廣體機持平，由窄體機（narrowbody）的改善來抵消。所以在這個時間點，要對任何這些事情做精準判斷真的很困難。因此我所知道的是復甦正在發生、營收正在上升。而我們真正爭論的只有一件事：上升的斜率到底是多少，因為那會要求我們對人力投入做判斷。一旦我們知道回升的角度，其餘就會水到渠成。

And so I just think that's -- let's not get too wrapped around on minutiae. The answer is good things are occurring a lot of moving parts, but generally, things are looking positive.

所以我認為——不要在枝微末節上鑽得太深。答案是：好事正在發生，變動因素很多，但整體而言，情況看起來是正面的。

It sounds like that's probably hit its low watermark, given 87 is already down. And then to your point, it's a debate around timing and pace of recovery. But it probably doesn't need to go lower based on everything you just said.

聽起來考量到 87 已經下來了，那大概已經觸底了。然後如你所說，接下來就是復甦的時間點與速度的討論。但基於你剛剛說的一切，它大概不需要再更低了。

It's difficult to go below 0. Yes. But, I mean, anticipating those -- that some are going to be built. But again, it's not that we know precisely exactly what build rate is. But -- so at the moment, I'll just say, yes, I can believe and stand at an average of 2 for the quarter without knowing the exact shape of production, whether it's just 1 or 2, or is it 0 and then 3 or 4, I don't know. It doesn't really matter. Well, I know, until we have the certification...

要低於 0 是很困難的，是的。不過，我的意思是，預期那些——會有一些會被生產出來。但再說一次，我們並不是精確知道到底生產率是多少。但——所以目前我只能說，是的，在不知道確切生產曲線形狀的情況下（到底是 1 或 2，或是先 0 再 3 或 4，我不知道），我可以相信並維持本季平均 2 的看法。其實也不太重要。嗯，我知道，直到我們拿到重新認證（certification）……

Yes. I mostly just was -- I didn't know how much inventory in the stock you had left.

是的。我主要只是——我不確定你們手上還剩多少庫存可以去化。

Yes, the critical thing is when recertification and at that point, the skies begins to turn blue. And things just begin to feel a bit better and that's why I've given you a broad calibration of where I think we're going to head towards next year.

是的，關鍵在於何時完成重新認證（recertification），到那個時點，天空就開始轉藍。事情會開始感覺好一些，也因此我才給你一個較寬的校準區間，說明我認為明年大致會往哪個方向走。

So is there no inventory destock left in that segment?

所以那個部門已經沒有庫存去化（destock）剩下了嗎？

Well, there is. While they've just got the build down to the end of the -- let's call it 2 level. Yes, their correcting inventory again.

嗯，還是有的。雖然他們已經把 build 降到——我們就稱之為 2 的水準。是的，他們又在修正庫存。

Our next question comes from the line of Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Phil Gibbs。

Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the aftermarket, particularly as it relates to the airfoils side? And then also whether or not we should expect you to have some price increase opportunities next year?

你能談談你在售後市場（aftermarket）看到的情況嗎，特別是與 airfoils（葉片/翼型件）相關的部分？另外，我們是否應該預期你們明年會有一些提價（price increase）的機會？

Okay. So first of all, we did see an uptick in the aftermarket demand in airfoils in Q3. We're expecting a similar sort of improvement in the fourth quarter. So overall, it's good to see. But of course, as I've explained before, because the level comes off a really low level, then what I talk about as an increase was percentage. It's notable, it's not exactly great in terms of dollar terms.

好的。首先，我們確實在第三季看到 airfoils 的售後市場需求有所回升。我們預期第四季也會有類似幅度的改善。所以整體來看，看到這點是好的。但當然，如我之前解釋過的，因為基期非常低，所以我所說的成長是以百分比呈現。它很顯著，但以金額（美元）來看並不算特別大。

Our thought is that, that continues on the talking, generally Commercial Aerospace and the airfoils that will continue to show further growth in 2022. Within the overall Commercial Aerospace, clearly, business jet is doing quite well. And well I'll say at the moment, that segment, is healthy. And we expect to see improvements in narrow-body as we move through the next few quarters to quite a healthy level in 2022.

我們的看法是，這種趨勢會延續；整體而言，商用航太（Commercial Aerospace）以及 airfoils 在 2022 年會持續呈現進一步成長。在整體商用航太之中，很明顯，商務機（business jet）表現相當不錯。而我目前會說，那個細分市場是健康的。並且我們預期，隨著未來幾季推進，窄體機會改善，並在 2022 年達到相當健康的水準。

So I think then the dollars do become more significant for us because a similar percentage increase on a larger dollar base begins to become more material. Price increases, my statement is, I think that 2022 will be -- will be positive, not as big as 2021. That's not in terms of a difference in percentage, but more in terms of the -- just the base for renewal. So that's what I'd say on that subject.

所以我認為，對我們而言金額就會變得更有意義，因為在更大的營收基礎上，類似的百分比成長開始變得更具實質性。至於提價，我的說法是：我認為 2022 年會是正面的，但不會像 2021 年那麼大。這不是指百分比差異，而是更多取決於——續約（renewal）的基礎規模。關於這個主題，我大概就是這樣說。

And then as a follow-up, Ken, on the interest expense side, what should we be modeling relative to the $63 million level that we saw in the third quarter on a run-rate basis, looking ahead with all the moves you've made? Congrats.

接著追問一下，Ken，就利息費用這一塊而言，針對我們在第三季看到的 6,300 萬美元水準，以年化（run-rate）基礎來看，考量你們已經做出的所有調整，往後我們應該如何建模？恭喜。

Yes. Just the way I would look at interest expense for next year, about $235 million, substantial action that we took on the debt profile this year, as we talked about on the call. So around $235 million for next year seems to be in good shape.

是的。我看明年利息費用的方式是，大約 2.35 億美元；我們今年在債務結構方面採取了相當多的行動，正如我們在電話會議中談到的。所以明年大約 2.35 億美元看起來是相當穩健的。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Sullivan with The Benchmark Company.

下一個問題來自 The Benchmark Company 的 Josh Sullivan。

Just curious on the conversations around the overall cost reductions potentially for the F-35 program. How are -- or are those discussions reaching your desk yet, either on price, volumes, redesigns? Just curious how you're navigating that.

我想了解一下，關於 F-35 計畫整體成本降低的相關討論。這些討論是否已經到你這邊了——不論是價格、產量、重新設計？想請教你們是如何因應的。

We had conversations on that more -- over a year ago, so no update since then. I mean the -- I think I was being public about our -- the LTA was renewed and pricing settled on that program. So nothing going on at the moment.

我們在一年多以前就談過這件事了，所以之後沒有新的進展。我的意思是——我想我之前也公開提過，我們的——LTA 已經續約，該計畫的定價也已經敲定。所以目前沒有什麼在進行中。

Our next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

下一個問題來自 Shapiro Research 的 George Shapiro。

John, just a quick couple for you. Is the shipset value of a 787 between $6 million to $7 million? In that way we can obviously put in our own expectations for what the build rate is going to be next year?

John，我這邊有兩個很快的問題。787 的 shipset 價值是否介於 600 萬到 700 萬美元之間？這樣我們就可以自行對明年的生產速率做出預期並建模。

I've never been willing to call out ship set values, George. There's guesstimates out there, but it's not a place that I want to go because calling out shipset values and people trying to model things up and down when they don't know exactly what they all are, what the inventory takes -- put and takes are, I think, it just clouds the whole position.

George，我一向不願意公開談 shipset 的價值。外面有一些估算，但我不想走到那一步，因為一旦公開 shipset 價值，大家在並不完全清楚各項細節、庫存的增減（put and takes）等情況下就會上下調模型，我認為這只會讓整體狀況更混亂。

I think I'd much rather keep people focused on the big relevant numbers, which essentially is how I guide. And basically, clearly, always people are going to go up or down around that. I always think I'd give you a really good balanced view of it. And I don't -- you want to get ahead of me, I think -- or get below me, and that's how I think about it. But shipset value is an area I'm not being prepared to go.

我更希望大家把焦點放在重要且相關的關鍵數字上，基本上這也是我提供指引的方式。而且很明顯，大家總是會在那個範圍附近上修或下修。我一直認為我會給你們一個相當平衡的觀點。而我不——你想要超前我，我想——或是低於我，這就是我看待這件事的方式。但 shipset 價值這一塊，我不打算提供。

Okay. And then just a follow-up on your comments in the Wheel business. You said you expect the supply chain issues to maybe resolve by next year. So can you tell us the ballpark as to how much you would expect that Wheel business to grow next year, if that's the case?

好的。接著追問你對 Wheel 業務的評論。你說你預期供應鏈問題可能到明年會解決。那麼在這種情況下，你能否給我們一個大概的範圍，說明你預期明年 Wheel 業務會成長多少？

At the moment, I'm convincing myself that we're going to see supply chain issues through the first half of next year. I'm not subscribing to anything that magically changes on the first of January. It's just another day in our lives. But I do think that things begin to ease as we go through the back end of the year.

就目前而言，我說服自己的是，我們會在明年上半年都還看到供應鏈問題。我不認為到了 1 月 1 日就會神奇地改變什麼。那只是我們生活中的另一天。但我確實認為，隨著明年下半年推進，情況會開始緩解。

And whether it's -- the chip shortages begin to ease or whether it's resins or whether it's glass, all of these things. Piece -- been working on that for 6, 9 months. And so bit by bit, they do get resolved capacities brought, supply chains ironed out, people come back to work and vaccination rates go up, and so labor availability, let's say, in Malaysia gets better, and so on.

不論是——晶片短缺開始緩解，或是樹脂，或是玻璃，這些因素都是如此。我們已經在這上面努力了 6 到 9 個月。因此會一點一滴地解決：產能到位、供應鏈被理順、員工回到工作崗位、疫苗接種率上升，於是勞動力供給——例如馬來西亞——變得更好，等等。

So the end market demand for commercial trucks is like, really high. And so this quarter, what we saw was that some of our major customers have actually -- I'm going to say, given up trying to build on 3 shifts and have intermittent build on and off every few days. It's so, I call it our customers completely abandoned its third shift.

商用卡車的終端市場需求非常高。所以本季我們看到的是，一些主要客戶實際上——我會說——已經放棄嘗試以三班制生產，並且每隔幾天就間歇性開工、停工。因此我稱之為，我們的客戶完全放棄了第三班。

I just accepted that for the next for -- let's say, the balance of year, they're going to just operate on 2 shifts, reassess again in '22. My expectation is that the -- well, orders at dealerships have been very high. Those will be further improved when 2022 pricing is announced for end markets for those trucks.

他們只是接受在接下來——比如說，今年剩餘期間——將以兩班制運作，並在 2022 年再重新評估。我的預期是——嗯，經銷商端的訂單一直非常高。當終端市場的 2022 年卡車定價公布後，這些訂單還會進一步改善。

So that's why I'm giving you my best estimate of what I think is going to happen. But there's no -- I mean I don't have a special fact set that's private to me, just like just like looking at all of the factors which have been constraining supply and saying, what do I think and what's a balanced view? And I'm going to go with, it begins to materially improve in the second half of next year because the demand is there. And what we don't build, we'll just get added to the backlog where the backlog is already enormous. It will get added to '23 backlog.

所以這就是我給你們我對未來走勢的最佳估計的原因。但沒有——我的意思是，我並沒有什麼只有我才知道的特殊私有資訊；我只是像大家一樣看所有限制供給的因素，然後判斷我認為會如何發展，以及什麼是較為平衡的觀點。我的看法是，明年下半年會出現實質改善，因為需求就在那裡。而我們沒能生產出來的量，只會被加到積壓訂單中，而目前積壓訂單已經非常龐大。它會被加到 2023 年的積壓訂單。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Seth Seifman。

Thanks for the follow-ups. I guess, John, maybe to go about the margin question in a less direct way. You've talked in the past -- kind of a target sort of incremental for the business as a whole. Is there any reason to think that 2022 should be significantly above or below that sort of target incremental level you've discussed in the past?

謝謝讓我追問。John，我想也許用比較不直接的方式來問毛利率的問題。你過去談過——整體業務的某種目標增量（incremental）水準。有沒有任何理由認為 2022 年會顯著高於或低於你過去提到的那個目標增量水準？

No, I don't think so. My -- clearly, it's not going to be the sort of incrementals you saw in the third quarter, which are fabulous. And the fact that we, not only called it, but did it is good. I think best guess for next year is that normalized sort of level that we've talked about in the past. So let's use the word 35% plus or minus, and apply that to the volume side of the -- whatever the volume is. And then you only adjust it fractionally for the whole issue of $1 of metal and $1 of revenue in terms of recovery.

不，我不這麼認為。我——很明顯，不會是你在第三季看到的那種增量水準，那非常出色。而且我們不只說到，也做到了，這很好。我對明年的最佳猜測是，回到我們過去談過的那種常態化水準。所以我們用「35% 上下」這個說法，並把它套用到量的那一端——不論量是多少。然後你只需要就金屬成本 1 美元與營收 1 美元的回收（recovery）問題，做些微調整。

So that's the only one where you can get it wrong, I think. Assuming we do our staff operationally and keep it on the full incremental, even though that's going to be really good if we do that.

所以我認為只有這一點可能會讓你算錯。假設我們在營運上把該做的事做好，並維持完整的增量水準——即便那會非常好——如果我們能做到的話。

Okay. Very good. And either John or Ken, if you could maybe run through some of the -- not operational but sort of big moving pieces we can think about for cash next year, so kind of pension, CapEx, tax, working capital?

好的。非常好。另外，John 或 Ken，你們是否可以帶我們快速過一遍明年現金流的一些——不是營運細節，而是比較大的變動因素，例如退休金、資本支出、稅負、營運資金？

Yes. I'll have a go at the big strokes and then let Ken refine it. So my guess is that CapEx, when we guide it, will be a bit higher than this year, but still a source of cash compared to depreciation. I think cash taxes will be higher. That's just a function of profit.

好的。我先用大方向說明，然後再讓 Ken 補充細節。所以我猜資本支出（CapEx）在我們給出指引時會比今年高一些，但相較於折舊，仍會是現金的來源。我認為現金稅（cash taxes）會更高。這只是獲利增加的結果。

So that's a piece of the equation. Working capital, it depends on the slope of the recovery, but I guess it will be a slight drag. I think pension, in aggregate, will be lower cash cost than '21. That's as much as I've got, I can -- we've got a view what each of those numbers is. But at the moment, we're still refining it as we get a better view on the overall demand side.

所以這是方程式中的一部分。營運資金方面，取決於復甦的斜率，但我猜會有些微拖累。我認為退休金整體而言，現金成本會低於 2021 年。我目前能提供的大概就這些——我們對每一項數字其實都有看法。但此刻我們仍在持續精煉，因為我們需要對整體需求端有更清楚的掌握。

Ken, anything you'd like to supplement a bit more granular than that?

Ken，你還有什麼想補充的，能否再更細緻一些？

No. The only thing that I would add to that is just the work that we've done on the pension and OPEB side. So to your point, this year, cash contributions for pension and OPEB, about $120 million. We think it's going to be less next year, Seth.

沒有。我唯一想補充的是我們在退休金與 OPEB 方面所做的工作。所以如你所說，今年退休金與 OPEB 的現金提撥約 1.2 億美元。我們認為明年會更少，Seth。

And you saw in the materials here, what we've been doing on pension and OPEB this year and that always benefits next year. But just a couple of items, if I start first with the balance sheet side of the equation, the liability has gone down around $180 million for pension and OPEB. That's significant. That's a combination of company actions that we've taken, as well as the asset returns that we had last year that flow into 2021 and then our contributions.

而且你在這裡的資料中也看到，我們今年在退休金與 OPEB 上做了哪些事，而這些一向都會讓明年受益。不過就幾個項目來說，如果我先從資產負債表這一端開始，退休金與 OPEB 的負債已下降約 1.8 億美元。這很顯著。這是我們採取的公司行動，以及去年資產報酬（反映到 2021 年）再加上我們的提撥共同造成的。

But the little known fact as well is we have been spending a lot of time to reduce our gross liability for the pension. Last year, you saw us move around $320 million, either annuitizing or buying out certain programs. We intend to continue that this year, probably another $230 million of gross liability reduction in our gross liability. So that'll help us out.

但還有一個不太為人所知的事實是，我們也花了很多時間來降低退休金的總負債。去年你看到我們移轉了約 3.2 億美元，透過年金化或買斷某些計畫。我們打算今年繼續做，可能再降低約 2.3 億美元的總負債。所以這會對我們有幫助。

And then we're also assuming everything right now, all these numbers that discount rates stay where they're at. If we looked at where discount rates finished last year, it was about 2.5%. And if you snap the line today, it'd be about 2.8%, so a 30 basis point improvement, that's going to help. We've shared our sensitivity in the past, about a 25 basis point improvement, improves our position by about $90 million. So hopefully, that stays where it's at.

另外，我們目前在假設上是以折現率維持在現有水準來看待所有這些數字。如果看去年底的折現率，大約是 2.5%。而如果以今天的水準來看，大約是 2.8%，也就是改善了 30 個基點，這會有幫助。我們過去分享過敏感度，折現率每改善約 25 個基點，我們的狀況就會改善約 9,000 萬美元。所以希望它能維持在目前水準。

But definitely doing a lot of work on the balance sheet side. You see how that flows into the P&L. Our pension and OPEB expenses this year, year-to-date, are about $12 million. It's a 50% reduction to where we were from last year. But not only P&L, but as we talked about, that'll all help us out from the cash contribution side next year. So we anticipate, as we mentioned, to be lower than $120 million.

但我們確實在資產負債表端做了很多工作。你也看到這如何反映到損益表。我們今年截至目前的退休金與 OPEB 費用約 1,200 萬美元。相較去年下降了 50%。但不只是損益表，如我們所談到的，這些也都會在明年的現金提撥端幫到我們。因此我們預期，如先前所提，會低於 1.2 億美元。

I think the gross liability reduction is probably something just fundamentally underappreciated. I mean, well over $0.5 billion of gross liabilities come off the balance sheet, which inherently reduces its volatility to both mortality and the interest rates going forward.

我認為總負債的降低，可能在根本上被低估了。我的意思是，超過 5 億美元的總負債從資產負債表上移除，這本質上會降低未來對死亡率與利率的波動敏感度。

So I treat that as a really outstanding outcome with essentially very little cash used to achieve that. And it's hard to draw a line between that exactly in value, but it does matter in terms of what that gross and then also the net liabilities are for the company.

所以我把這視為一個非常出色的成果，而且基本上只用了很少的現金就達成。而且很難精確地把它在價值上畫出一條對應線，但就公司總負債以及淨負債的水準而言，這確實很重要。

Great. Great. And then, since we're in the second round here, if I can overstay my welcome. It sounds like you're done hiring for this year. Is there -- where are you set for in terms of people, in terms of how far sort of into next year before the next round of adding folks might come?

很好。很好。那麼，既然我們進入第二輪，如果我可以再多問一下。聽起來你們今年已經停止招募了。那在人力配置上，你們大概可以支撐到明年的什麼時點，才可能進入下一輪增聘？

It's difficult to exactly know at this point. As you say, we've taken on, say, net 800 into the Engine business, if you asked me before, I thought we would have been hiring in Q1. I'm not really sure. If I call it today, I think we probably will be towards the end of Q1. And we want to take a cautious view on all of that. I mean there's a lot of stuff that's got to play out here, all the uncertainty I talked to. I'll give you a piece of information here you didn't ask for it, just because it is interesting. Just by way of information, our vaccination rate is over 70% across the company, so between 70% and 75%. So that's been responding fairly well to the encouragement that we've been providing to our workforce to provide that protection for everybody. And we hope it continues to improve.

目前很難精確判斷。如你所說，我們在 Engine 業務淨增加了大約 800 人；如果你之前問我，我原本以為我們會在第一季招募。我不太確定。如果以今天來看，我想我們可能會到第一季末左右。而且我們希望對這一切採取審慎的看法。我的意思是，這裡還有很多事情要發展，還有我提到的各種不確定性。我再補充一個你沒問但很有意思的資訊。僅供參考，我們全公司的疫苗接種率已超過 70%，大約在 70% 到 75% 之間。所以對於我們鼓勵員工接種、為大家提供保護這件事，反應相當不錯。我們也希望它能持續提升。

Our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 David Strauss。

All right. Thanks. I don't think you mentioned this, John, but 2022 price negotiations, where those stand today, how far are you through that? And what might pricing look like relative to '21?

好的。謝謝。John，我想你沒有提到這點，但 2022 年的價格談判目前進展到哪裡？你們大概完成了多少？另外，相較於 2021 年，定價可能會是什麼樣子？

Exactly in line with what I previously said, is that '22 will be a lower year than 2021 by a significant amount. It will still be healthy, but just the -- I'll call it the natural flow of the LTA renewals. So I'm going to say, all in order there from the previous, I'll say, dialogue. What was the other part question, apart from the...

完全符合我先前所說的：2022 年會比 2021 年低很多。仍然會是健康的水準，但就是——我稱之為 LTA 續約的自然節奏。所以我會說，整體而言都與先前的對話一致。問題的另一部分是什麼，除了那個……？

I think that was it. Yes, I think that was it. Yes, as a follow-up, I think you've gotten some relief to do higher levels of cash return between dividends and share repo. But what about the potential to even get more relief, just given where your balance sheet is and the cash generation, looks like that will come through next year?

我想就這些。是的，我想就這些。是的，作為追問，我想你們在股利與庫藏股回購之間，已經獲得一些提高現金回饋水準的空間。但考量你們的資產負債表狀況與現金創造能力——看起來明年會反映出來——是否有可能獲得更多空間？

Well, first of all, we've certainly increased both the authorization and the scale of baskets that we have to do that. Critical to that in terms of utilization of those baskets is the view of the industry and the strength of view of that industry, and maybe some of the current uncertainties.

嗯，首先，我們確實已提高了相關授權，以及我們用來執行這些的額度規模。而在使用這些額度方面的關鍵，在於對產業的看法、對該產業的信心強度，以及一些當前的不確定性。

It would be great to see those recede. So -- I mean I've talked very clear about the solid recovery of the narrow-body business. And then recertification, I think it would be great to see, let's say, the 737 certified in China, the 787 recertified, I'd say, globally to build condition. And then I think those give us further confidence in deployment.

如果那些不確定性消退，會很棒。所以——我的意思是，我已非常清楚地談到窄體機業務的穩健復甦。另外在重新認證方面，我認為如果能看到例如 737 在中國取得認證、787 在全球重新認證並達到可生產的條件，那會很棒。我想這些都會讓我們在資金部署上更有信心。

If I roll myself forward let's say, 1 year, I'm not really sure whether -- depending upon exactly what I'll guide to by way of cash flow for next year. I don't know whether there will be, much by way of restrictions a year from now, if any. But I'm not sure it actually would change the mindset over what we'll be prepared to do. So I think we'll, again, take a forward view of what our leverage will be, how much we've deployed, what's the overall confidence level in doing so and basically, to provide a balanced set of returns to our stakeholders and our shareholders, in particular.

如果我把時間往前推一年來看，我不太確定——這取決於我明年在現金流指引上會怎麼說。我不知道一年後是否還會有多少限制（如果有的話）。但我不確定那實際上是否會改變我們對於願意做什麼的思維。所以我想我們會再次以前瞻角度來看我們的槓桿水準、我們已部署了多少、對執行的整體信心程度，並基本上為利害關係人，特別是股東，提供一個平衡的回報組合。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。