Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Q3 2026 Howmet Aerospace earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2026 年第三季（Q3）財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, and over to you, Paul.

現在我想把會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Paul Luther。謝謝，交給你了，Paul。

Thank you, Danish. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace third-quarter 2026 results conference call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Patrick, we will have a question-and-answer session. I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations.

謝謝你，Danish。各位早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2026 年第三季業績電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有執行董事長兼執行長 John Plant，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Patrick Winterlich。在 John 與 Patrick 發言後，我們將進行問答環節。提醒各位，今天的討論將包含與未來事件及預期相關的前瞻性陳述。

You can find the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings. In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS mean adjusted EBITDA, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

可能導致實際結果與這些預測出現重大差異的因素，已列於今天的簡報與財報新聞稿，以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件中。在今天的簡報中，提及的 EBITDA、營業利益與 EPS 係指調整後 EBITDA、調整後營業利益與調整後 EPS。這些指標屬於我們在討論中採用的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標之一。與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標之調節表，可在今天的新聞稿以及今天簡報的附錄中找到。此外，除非另有說明，所有比較皆以年對年為基礎。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

接下來，我想把電話會議交給 John。

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Howmet's Q3 earnings call. Let's start with the highlights on slide 4. Howmet performance in Q3 was solid in all dimensions. Revenues at $2.7 billion were up 29% year-over-year and up 25% through organic growth. EBITDA was $879 million and was up 43% with a margin rate of 32.5%.

各位早安，歡迎參加 Howmet 第三季財報電話會議。我們先從第 4 頁的重點開始。Howmet 在第三季各方面表現都很穩健。營收為 27 億美元，年增 29%，其中有機成長年增 25%。EBITDA 為 8.79 億美元，年增 43%，EBITDA 利潤率為 32.5%。

Margins were up 40 basis points from the second quarter and year-over incrementals were 43% after the dampening effect of the CAM acquisition. Free cash flow in the quarter was $562 million after capital expenditure of $147 million which was a quarterly record. A strong cash flow supported by share buybacks of $500 million. And in addition, gross debt was reduced by $60 million in the quarter and we ended with approximately 1.3x net debt to EBITDA. We have repurchased $1.1 billion of shares to date, of which is $400 million more than the total repurchases in 2025.

利潤率較第二季提升 40 個基點；在 CAM 併購帶來的稀釋效應影響下，年對年增量（incrementals）仍達 43%。本季自由現金流為 5.62 億美元，資本支出為 1.47 億美元，創下單季新高。強勁的現金流也支撐了 5 億美元的庫藏股回購。此外，本季總負債減少 6,000 萬美元，期末淨負債對 EBITDA 約為 1.3 倍。我們迄今已回購 11 億美元股票，較 2025 年全年回購總額多出 4 億美元。

I would like to note that our diluted share count fell to just below 400 million outstanding shares, at 399.5 million at the end of Q3. Over the last eight years, the share count has been reduced by in excess of 100 million shares. Earnings per share were $1.46, a 54% increase year-over-year, and this sets us up well to achieve the remainder of our 2026 objectives.

我想特別指出，我們的稀釋後流通股數已降至 4 億股以下，第三季末為 3.995 億股。過去八年，股數已累計減少超過 1 億股。每股盈餘為 1.46 美元，年增 54%，這讓我們更有條件達成 2026 年其餘目標。

Good progress was made on several fronts with new business being booked in line with our outlook expectations in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace and Industrial Gas Turbines. Of particular note in the quarter was the 45% Gas Turbine revenue growth, which demonstrates both the extraordinary addition to output and even more importantly, the increased market share. Further commentary will be provided during the outlook section of the call.

在多個面向均取得良好進展，新業務接單在商用航太、國防航太與工業燃氣渦輪等領域皆符合我們的展望預期。本季特別值得注意的是燃氣渦輪營收成長 45%，這不僅展現產出的大幅提升，更重要的是市占率的提高。我們將在電話會議的展望部分提供進一步說明。

I'll now turn the call over to Patrick, who will provide further commentary on end market growth and segment performance.

接下來我把電話會議交給 Patrick，由他進一步說明終端市場成長與各事業部門表現。

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. Please move to slide 5. Howmet delivered another strong quarter with all end markets growing. We are well positioned for the future and continue to invest for growth. Total revenue was up 29% in the third quarter. Excluding the net impact of the three transactions we completed this year, revenue was up 25% year-over-year an acceleration from the 21% organic growth rate in the second quarter and 19% in the first quarter. Commercial Aerospace growth was very healthy at 32%, and with organic growth of 27%, driven by demand for both OE and spares.

謝謝你，John。各位早安。請翻到第 5 頁。Howmet 再次交出強勁的一季，所有終端市場皆呈現成長。我們已為未來做好布局，並持續投資以推動成長。第三季總營收年增 29%。排除今年完成的三筆交易之淨影響後，營收年增 25%，較第二季 21% 的有機成長率與第一季 19% 進一步加速。商用航太成長非常健康，年增 32%；其中有機成長 27%，主要由原廠（OE）與備品需求帶動。

Commercial Aerospace spares demand continues to increase significantly driven by both legacy and next-generation engine programs. Defense Aerospace growth was 10% with organic growth of 3% driven by spares demand, particularly on legacy fighter platforms.

商用航太備品需求持續顯著增加，主要由傳統與新一代引擎專案共同帶動。國防航太成長 10%，其中有機成長 3%，主要由備品需求驅動，尤其是在傳統戰機平台。

Commercial Transport revenue was up 28%, reflecting both volume increases as the North America market recovery continued and the pass-through of higher aluminum costs. Gas Turbine growth was very strong at 45% and as end market demand remains robust. Growth in Other markets of 48% was largely driven by the Brunner Fastener acquisition completed in February. Spares growth remained robust across Howmet markets. Total spares revenue was up 30% to approximately $570 million and represented approximately 21% of total revenue in the quarter. In summary, continued strong performance in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace, Gas Turbines and Commercial Transportation.

商用運輸營收年增 28%，反映北美市場復甦帶來的出貨量增加，以及較高鋁成本的轉嫁。燃氣渦輪成長非常強勁，年增 45%，且終端市場需求仍然強韌。其他市場成長 48%，主要由 2 月完成的 Brunner Fastener 併購所帶動。Howmet 各市場的備品成長仍維持強勁。備品總營收年增 30% 至約 5.7 億美元，約占本季總營收的 21%。總結而言，商用航太、國防航太、燃氣渦輪與商用運輸皆持續展現強勁表現。

Moving to slide 6, starting with the P&L. Third quarter revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share all exceeded the high end of guidance. On a year-over-year basis, revenue was up 29% and 25% organically, the strongest quarterly growth rate on record for Howmet. EBITDA continued to outpace revenue growth of 43%, EBITDA margin increased 310 basis points to 32.5%. The incremental flow-through of revenue to EBITDA was solid at 43% year-over-year. Earnings per share were $1.46, up 54% compared to Q3 2025.

接著看第 6 頁，先從損益表（P&L）開始。第三季營收、EBITDA、EBITDA 利潤率與每股盈餘皆高於財測區間上緣。以年對年來看，營收年增 29%，有機成長年增 25%，為 Howmet 有史以來最強的單季成長率。EBITDA 年增 43%，持續快於營收成長；EBITDA 利潤率提升 310 個基點至 32.5%。營收轉化為 EBITDA 的增量流轉率（incremental flow-through）年對年為 43%，表現穩健。每股盈餘為 1.46 美元，較 2025 年第三季成長 54%。

Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet remains a source of strength for Howmet. The quarter end cash balance was $508 million, with quarterly free cash flow of $562 million. Net debt to trailing EBITDA improved to 1.3 times. During the quarter, we paid down $60 million of commercial paper. Liquidity remains strong with an undrawn $1 billion revolver complemented by a $1 billion commercial paper program with $390 million outstanding from the $450 million that was drawn to support the CAM acquisition.

接下來說明資產負債表與現金流。資產負債表仍是 Howmet 的一大優勢。季末現金餘額為 5.08 億美元，單季自由現金流為 5.62 億美元。淨負債對過去 12 個月 EBITDA 的比率改善至 1.3 倍。本季我們償還了 6,000 萬美元的商業本票。流動性仍然充裕：我們有 10 億美元未動用的循環信貸額度（revolver），並搭配 10 億美元的商業本票計畫；其中為支應 CAM 併購而動用的 4.5 億美元中，仍有 3.9 億美元在外流通。

Turning to capital deployment, CapEx was $147 million. The majority of our capital spend continues to be in the Engine Products segment as we continue to invest for growth in both Aerospace and Gas Turbines markets. Investments are backed by long-term customer contracts. In the quarter, we repurchased $500 million of common stock at an average price of $265 per share. This brings year-to-date repurchases to $1.1 billion at an average price of $251 per share. We continue to be confident in strong future free cash flow. We increased the quarterly stock dividend in Q3 by 17% from $0.12 per share to $0.14 per share.

再來談資本配置，資本支出（CapEx）為 1.47 億美元。我們的資本支出大多仍投入於引擎產品（Engine Products）事業部門，持續在航太與燃氣渦輪市場投資以支持成長。相關投資皆有長期客戶合約作為支撐。本季我們以每股平均 265 美元回購 5 億美元普通股。這使得年初至今的回購金額達 11 億美元，平均回購價格為每股 251 美元。我們對未來強勁的自由現金流仍具信心。我們在第三季將季度現金股利上調 17%，由每股 0.12 美元提高至每股 0.14 美元。

Now let's move to slide 7 to cover the segment results for the third quarter. The engine products team delivered exceptional performance again across revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Revenue grew 33% to $1.45 billion. Commercial Aerospace was up 39% and Gas Turbines was up 44%. Demand continues to be strong across both original equipment and spares.

現在讓我們移到第7頁，說明第三季的分部業績。引擎產品團隊在營收、EBITDA 以及 EBITDA 利潤率方面再次交出卓越表現。營收成長33%，達14.5億美元。商用航太成長39%，燃氣渦輪成長44%。原廠設備與備品兩端的需求持續強勁。

EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 57% to $567 million. EBITDA margin increased 580 basis points to 39.1% while absorbing approximately 520 net new employees in the quarter, positioning us well for future growth. Please move to slide 8. Fastening Systems delivered another solid quarter. Revenue increased 41% to $630 million, including the impact from the CAM and Brunner acquisitions.

EBITDA 的成長幅度超越營收，增加57%至5.67億美元。EBITDA 利潤率提升580個基點至39.1%，同時在本季吸收約520名淨新增員工，為未來成長做好布局。請移到第8頁。緊固系統（Fastening Systems）再度交出穩健的一季。營收成長41%至6.30億美元，包含CAM與Brunner併購案的影響。

Commercial Aerospace was up 42% and Defense Aerospace was up 56%. Commercial Transportation was up 6% year-over-year. Excluding the impact from acquisitions, total Fastening's growth was up 10%. EBITDA increased 34% to $185 million. EBITDA margin declined 140 basis points year-over-year and 70 points sequentially, reflecting the increased revenues from CAM, which we acquired in April.

商用航太成長42%，國防航太成長56%。商用運輸年增6%。若排除併購影響，緊固業務整體成長為10%。EBITDA 成長34%至1.85億美元。EBITDA 利潤率年減140個基點、季減70個基點，反映我們於4月收購的CAM帶來的營收增加具有較高稀釋效應。

Moving to slide 9. The Engineered Structures team continues to drive improvement in the business. Revenue declined 4% to $295 million due to the divestiture of the Savannah disc forging facility. Excluding the impact of Savannah, revenue growth was 8%. We continue to focus on higher margin and stronger return opportunities in the business. Sequentially, revenue was up 10% from the second quarter, driven by increased Commercial Aerospace OE demand. EBITDA increased 9% year-over-year despite the revenue decline and EBITDA margin expanded 290 basis points to 23.7% as we continue to focus and optimize the Structures segment to maximize profitability.

接著看第9頁。工程結構（Engineered Structures）團隊持續推動業務改善。由於出售Savannah圓盤鍛造廠，營收下滑4%至2.95億美元。若排除Savannah的影響，營收成長為8%。我們持續聚焦於更高利潤率與更佳報酬的機會。就季比而言，受商用航太原廠設備（OE）需求增加帶動，營收較第二季成長10%。儘管營收下滑，EBITDA 仍年增9%，且 EBITDA 利潤率擴張290個基點至23.7%；我們持續聚焦並優化結構分部，以最大化獲利能力。

Please turn to slide 10. Forged Wheels delivered another solid quarter. Revenue was up 32%, driven by higher volumes in addition to increased aluminum cost pass-through. Volumes also increased sequentially from Q2 as the North American market recovery continued. EBITDA was $86 million, an 18% increase year-over-year. EBITDA margin declined year-over-year and sequentially, reflecting the significant dilutive effect of sharply higher aluminum cost pass-through. We continue to outperform the market driven by our premium products.

請翻到第10頁。鍛造輪圈（Forged Wheels）再度交出穩健的一季。營收成長32%，主要由更高出貨量以及鋁成本轉嫁增加所帶動。隨著北美市場復甦延續，出貨量亦較第二季呈現季增。EBITDA 為8,600萬美元，年增18%。EBITDA 利潤率不論年比或季比皆下滑，反映鋁成本轉嫁大幅上升所造成的顯著稀釋效應。在高端產品帶動下，我們持續跑贏市場。

Now let me turn the call back to John.

現在我把電話交回給John。

Thanks, Patrick, and let's move to slide 11 and turn the calls of the outlook. Firstly, of course, we provided guidance for Q4. Our glide path continues towards the conclusion of another good year for Howmet. The specific numbers will be commented upon in a few moments, plus our initial sighting shot of 2027. Regarding Commercial Aerospace, the flight schedules and load factors held up well during the summer months both for domestic and international travel.

謝謝你，Patrick。接著我們移到第11頁，談談展望。首先，當然，我們已提供第四季（Q4）指引。我們的走勢路徑持續朝向Howmet再度完成一個表現良好的年度。具體數字稍後會再說明，同時也會提供我們對2027年的初步觀察。就商用航太而言，夏季期間不論國內或國際旅行，航班時刻與載客率都維持良好。

Naturally, the Middle East was lower given the Iran conflict and its fallout. Oil prices, notably jet fuel and diesel, are especially high and with the resultant effect on ticket prices, overall travel will potentially impact some schedules as we go through the winter into 2027. Having said that, we do not expect there to be any impact on our spares deliveries during this period and indeed throughout 2027. In fact, we expect solid demand given the timeline ring issues experienced by the new generation of narrowbody engines and also the backlog of aircraft engines, which are scheduled for shop visits and the ongoing underbuild of aircraft compared to plans. And also, this means that spares demand will continue to be very robust.

當然，由於伊朗衝突及其後續影響，中東地區相對走弱。油價，特別是航空燃油與柴油，處於特別高的水準；在票價隨之上升的影響下，整體旅行需求可能會在我們進入冬季並延續至2027年期間，對部分航班安排造成影響。儘管如此，我們預期在此期間乃至整個2027年，我們的備品交付不會受到影響。事實上，鑑於新一代窄體機引擎所出現的時間環（timing ring）問題，以及飛機引擎的訂單積壓（backlog）—這些引擎已排定進廠維修（shop visits）—再加上飛機實際產量相較計畫仍偏低（underbuild），我們預期需求將相當穩健。此外，這也意味著備品需求將持續非常強勁。

The current extraordinary aircraft OE order backlog will ensure that new aircraft production continues and increases throughout 2027 and beyond. We expect volume increases for the 737, the A320, the 787 and the A350 to be healthy, and they help to underpin our Commercial Aerospace business outlook. Defense sales continue to be strong with further increases likely in legacy aircraft build and spares. Notably, F-35 spares continues to be healthy with an expanding fleet of aircraft. We have not yet assumed in our forward look, the replenishment of inventories, which have been depleted as a result of the Iran conflict.

目前異常龐大的飛機原廠設備（OE）訂單積壓，將確保新機生產在2027年及其後持續並增加。我們預期737、A320、787與A350的產量提升將維持健康水準，並有助於支撐我們對商用航太業務的展望。國防銷售持續強勁，傳統機型的製造與備品銷售可能進一步增加。特別是，隨著機隊規模擴大，F-35備品需求仍維持健康。在我們的前瞻展望中，尚未納入因伊朗衝突而被消耗的庫存之回補。

The most important growth factor as a percent of sales is up to one sector of defense sales is that of missile parts. We are being asked to increase production significantly, albeit final agreements have yet to be concluded. We believe that how much technological and operational leadership position in the industry, coupled with our ability to develop the most sophisticated turbine blades at scale in both Commercial and the Defense Aerospace sectors will ensure that Howmet's market position and strong financial performance will continue well into the middle of the next decade and beyond.

以銷售占比來看，最重要的成長因素之一是在國防銷售中的飛彈零組件。我們被要求大幅提高產量，儘管最終協議尚未完成。我們相信，Howmet在產業中的技術與營運領先地位，加上我們能在商用與國防航太領域以規模化方式開發最先進的渦輪葉片，將確保Howmet的市場地位與強勁財務表現可持續至下個十年的中期乃至更久。

Industrial Gas Turbines growth and the growth as we continue to look forward to with customers will strengthen, and we look forward to further increase these volumes into the future beyond the previous expectations. This impact is likely to be felt in the outer years beyond 2028 since the new capacity currently being installed is totally sold out. More recently, we've seen major gas turbine customers state that 2031 is now also sold out.

工業燃氣渦輪（Industrial Gas Turbines, IGT）的成長，以及我們與客戶持續展望的成長動能將會增強；我們也期待未來這些量能的提升將超越先前的預期。由於目前正在安裝的新產能已完全售罄，這項影響可能會在2028年之後的較遠年度才會更明顯。近期我們看到主要燃氣渦輪客戶表示，2031年的產能也已售罄。

And indeed, 2032, we're likely to sold out in the next one or two quarters. This growing level of demand continues into the 2030s and combined with the need for significant increases in future gas turbine spares provides us with even greater confidence. Further capacity is likely to be considered for addition, albeit within the framework of maintaining a high level of free cash flow conversion.

而且，2032年也很可能在接下來一到兩季內售罄。這種不斷攀升的需求水準延續至2030年代，再加上未來燃氣渦輪備品需求需要大幅增加，使我們更具信心。在維持高水準自由現金流轉換率的框架下，未來可能會考慮再增加產能。

Most importantly, the whole of the IGT growth serving broad-based demand across the industrial, oil and gas as well as data centers will be completed without adding any depth to the company. Indeed, this year, we'll have completed two acquisitions for approximately $2 billion, spent $0.5 billion on CapEx and bought back shares in excess of $1 billion. And yes, our leverage level at the end of 2026 is expected to be similar to the exit level of 2025.

最重要的是，IGT的整體成長—服務於工業、油氣以及資料中心等廣泛需求—將在不增加公司負債的情況下完成。事實上，今年我們將完成兩項併購，總金額約20億美元；資本支出（CapEx）投入5億美元，並回購超過10億美元的股票。是的，我們預期2026年底的槓桿水準將與2025年底的水準相近。

The Commercial Transportation sector continues to experience North American market recovery. Production volumes continue to climb after the Q1 low point with truck OEM build slots largely fall in the second half and now into the first part of 2027. The more gradual phase-in of the 2027 NOx emissions regulations should also be supportive of the industry volumes going into 2027. While I will comment on specific Q4 numbers in a moment, the new guide has been raised from the prior outlook. But perhaps the most important view is the initial growth outlook for 2027 which is seen at 12% plus or minus 0.5%, resulting in revenues of approximately $11.5 billion.

商用運輸（Commercial Transportation）領域持續經歷北美市場復甦。在第一季觸底後，產量持續攀升；卡車OEM的生產排程空檔主要落在下半年，並延續到2027年初期。2027年NOx排放法規較為漸進的導入，也應有助於支撐產業在邁向2027年的出貨量。我稍後會說明第四季的具體數字，但新的指引已較先前展望上調。不過，或許最重要的是對2027年的初步成長展望：預估為12%上下0.5%，對應營收約115億美元。

Further refinement and underlying aircraft volume build assumptions will be provided during our February 2027 earnings call. Finally, the share buyback authorization has also been addressed by the Board and has been increased by a further $5 billion. Now moving to specific numbers for Q4. We envisage revenues to be approximately $2.75 billion, plus or minus $10 million, EBITDA of $900 million, plus or minus $5 million. Earnings per share at $1.50, plus or minus $0.01.

進一步的細化內容以及底層的飛機產量建置假設，將在我們 2027 年 2 月的財報電話會議中提供。最後，董事會也已就庫藏股回購授權進行處理，並再增加 50 億美元。現在轉到第四季的具體數字。我們預期營收約為 27.5 億美元，上下浮動 1,000 萬美元；EBITDA 為 9 億美元，上下浮動 500 萬美元。每股盈餘為 1.50 美元，上下浮動 0.01 美元。

For the full year, the guidance increased again across the board to revenues of $10.3 billion, plus or so minus $10 million. EBITDA $3.33 billion, plus or minus $5 billion; and earnings per share of $5.50, plus or minus $0.01. And free cash flow has been increased to $2 billion, plus or minus $50 million. In terms of the full year commentary, we're pleased with our sales growth of 25%, including a 22% organic growth so far this year and an earnings per share growth of over 45%. We note that free cash flow of around $2 billion represents a very healthy cash flow to revenue and the margin -- a cash margin of over 19%, which is at a very high level.

就全年而言，我們的指引再次全面上調至營收 103 億美元，上下約浮動 1,000 萬美元。EBITDA 為 33.3 億美元，上下浮動 50 億美元；每股盈餘為 5.50 美元，上下浮動 0.01 美元。自由現金流亦上調至 20 億美元，上下浮動 5,000 萬美元。就全年評論而言，我們對銷售成長 25% 感到滿意，其中包括今年迄今 22% 的有機成長，以及每股盈餘成長超過 45%。我們注意到，約 20 億美元的自由現金流代表非常健康的現金流對營收比與利潤率——現金利潤率超過 19%，處於非常高的水準。

We can now move to Q&A.

我們現在可以進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

Kristine Liwag，摩根士丹利。

Morning, everyone. John, Patrick, PT. I guess blades and veins remain a critical bottleneck in aerospace supply chain, which seems to be driving OEMs to take greater control of their manufacturing capabilities. We saw this with Pratt when they invested in the Asheville facility, NG announced its acquisition of CPP. John, you've previously highlighted the difficulty of replicating how much technology, your manufacturing yields and scale, but how do you view these vertical integration initiatives reshaping the competitive dynamics in this aerospace blades and veins market? And what implications could they have for how its future market share? And how do you think about pricing power?

各位早安。John、Patrick、PT。我想葉片與導流葉片（blades and vanes）仍是航太供應鏈中的關鍵瓶頸，這似乎正推動 OEM 更加掌控其製造能力。我們在 Pratt 投資 Asheville 廠時看到了這點，NG 也宣布收購 CPP。John，你先前曾強調要複製你們的技術含量、製造良率與規模有多困難；但你如何看待這些垂直整合的舉措，將如何重塑航太葉片與導流葉片市場的競爭態勢？它們對未來市占可能帶來哪些影響？以及你如何看待定價能力？

Thanks, Kristine, and good morning. I think the first comment I would like to make is that we have excellent relationships with all of our engine customers. So namely GE, Safran, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce to name just a few. Our investments in technology, quality and ability to invest in capacity have been fundamental to the increase in volume of modern jet engines and indeed support of the airline fleets worldwide. This capability has taken years, if not decades to achieve. And right now, we're actually poised to further increase capacity for GE, which will take two years to install and then there will be a multiyear runway after that.

謝謝你，Kristine，早安。我想我首先要說的是，我們與所有引擎客戶都維持非常良好的關係。也就是說，像 GE、Safran、Pratt & Whitney、Rolls-Royce 等等。我們在技術、品質以及投資產能的能力上的投入，一直是現代噴射引擎產量提升、並支援全球航空公司機隊的根本。這項能力花了多年、甚至數十年才建立起來。而目前，我們其實已準備好為 GE 進一步提升產能，安裝需要兩年時間，之後還會有多年的成長跑道。

In fact, regarding this particular capacity for GE, I was reviewing yesterday for one of our sites and it is a significant investment. We are also in dialogue with what's been called the Blue First Blade and its future industrialization in the 2030s. I know that this audience though likes to have quantification and numbers rather than just words. And of course, it's difficult to give dollar values since I also recognize that competitors are listening. So I thought I tried to provide some views on scale and quantification of the central thrust of your question, which was the GE acquisition of CPP.

事實上，針對 GE 的這項特定產能，我昨天在檢視我們其中一個廠區時看到，這是一筆相當可觀的投資。我們也正就所謂的 Blue First Blade 及其在 2030 年代的未來工業化進行對話。我知道在座各位更喜歡量化與數字，而不只是文字描述。當然，要給出美元金額很困難，因為我也知道競爭對手正在聽。因此，我想嘗試就你問題的核心——也就是 GE 收購 CPP——提供一些關於規模與量化的觀點。

And I think -- I was thinking about sort of how do we move into the 2030s and beyond, especially given the investments I've talked about in commercial aerospace, but also, you've seen us make a lot of investments in this year and already talked to the planned increase in investment in 2027 and beyond in the IGT space. And so I thought maybe I can give some quantification of this by just think about the fleet of turbines that we are enabling to be built from like 2025 through 2030 and the large increase in the fleet of turbines, which will produce for us spares demand into the 2030s.

我在想——我們如何邁向 2030 年代及更遠的未來，特別是考量到我談到的商用航太投資；同時你們也看到我們今年在 IGT 領域做了大量投資，並且我們已談到 2027 年及之後計畫提高投資。因此，我想也許我可以用一個量化方式來說明：想想我們在 2025 到 2030 年間所促成建置的渦輪機隊規模，以及渦輪機隊的大幅增加，這將在 2030 年代為我們帶來備品需求。

And when we have done our modeling, we think about that increase in spares demand, they just pick, let's say, one year, I just picked it around an like 2031 and what our expectations are in our planning assumptions is that we see the sales value increase in spares revenues from IGT in that one year. That would exceed the total value of the sales of the first blade of our largest narrow-body engine blade to any of our customers.

在我們的模型中，當我們思考備品需求的增加時，我們就挑一個年份來看——例如我選了大約 2031 年——在我們的規劃假設下，我們預期 IGT 的備品營收在那一年所增加的銷售價值，將會超過我們最大窄體引擎葉片的「首件葉片」（first blade）對任何客戶的總銷售價值。

So -- and if you think about it, we don't expect to lose any of that business anyway, but just to quite provide and put the context, should we lose a first blade to a narrow-body engine is that that would be more than compensated by just one thing, which would be the spares increases in our IGT segment in one year. And then, of course, we're expecting similar values of increases in 2032, 2033, 2034 and beyond, given the continued build-out that we envisage.

所以——而且如果你這樣想，我們本來也不預期會失去任何那部分業務；但只是為了提供脈絡：即便我們真的在窄體引擎上失去一個首件葉片業務，那也會被單一因素所抵銷——也就是我們 IGT 部門在某一年備品增加所帶來的成長。當然，鑑於我們所預期的持續建置，我們也預期在 2032、2033、2034 以及更往後，會有類似幅度的增加。

So let me just turn back from a quantification to back to some more, I'll say, stores around CPP and when we consider their capabilities, we seem to be probably the higher order in structural castings and that's probably augmented recently by the acquisition of Precicast from Switzerland that they closed in the last month or so. And when I think about the industry, we've heard a lot about forgings and castings, which seems to be the word that people reach for immediately.

所以讓我從量化再回到一些——我會說——關於 CPP 的一些故事。當我們考量他們的能力時，我們看起來可能在結構鑄件方面層級更高；而他們最近也可能因為收購瑞士的 Precicast（大約在過去一個月左右完成交割）而得到強化。當我思考整個產業時，我們聽到很多關於鍛件與鑄件的討論，這似乎是人們第一時間就會提到的詞。

And in fact, structural castings have probably been the main pain point of the industry that commercial aerospace has suffered in recent years. And therefore, I consider the capabilities that maybe CPP has in structural castings to be possibly of an more important relevance. And when I think about it, even though Howmet has been increasing our market share, and we're actually currently considering a further buildout of another manufacturing plant in this area.

事實上，結構鑄件可能一直是近年來商用航太產業所承受的主要痛點。因此，我認為 CPP 在結構鑄件方面可能具備的能力，或許具有更重要的相關性。而當我思考這點時，即便 Howmet 一直在提升我們的市占率，我們目前也正在評估在這個領域進一步擴建另一座製造工廠。

Maybe it will affect the scale of the plant that we're considering and indeed, where we place that investment. But -- so we expect that we'll continue to grow even in this segment, with the relative strength that CPP may have in the future. And then I think just turning the call into like a broader perspective for what Howmet's going to do over the next few years. I think I'd just like to return to that IGT theme. And I think it may be worthy of updating our guide regarding growth that I provided, I think, during last year, especially in the light of our growth in 2026.

這或許會影響我們正在考量的工廠規模，以及我們把這筆投資放在哪裡。但是——因此我們預期，即使未來 CPP 在這一領域可能相對更強，我們在這個細分市場仍將持續成長。接著我想把電話會議拉到更宏觀的角度，談談 Howmet 在未來幾年要做什麼。我想回到 IGT 這個主題。我認為，特別是考量到我們在 2026 年的成長，或許值得更新我在去年提供的成長指引。

And as you know, it's been above expectations. In fact, growth accelerated in the third quarter from the 30% plus revenue increases in the first and second quarter to a 45% level. And as I commented earlier, that level of growth is clearly well in excess of the loan-based gas turbine industry and a result of further market share agreements that we've achieved during the course of the negotiations that I referred to in recent calls.

如各位所知，成長已高於預期。事實上，成長在第三季加速，從第一、第二季 30% 以上的營收增幅提升到 45% 的水準。正如我先前評論的，這樣的成長水準顯然遠高於以貸款為基礎的燃氣渦輪產業，並且是我們在我於近期電話會議中提到的談判過程中，進一步取得市占協議的結果。

So what I see now is that whereas our prior commentary had been around a doubling of IGT sales from 2025 as the base year within a three- to five-year period, we now see this as being achieved in three years so two years at the front end of that. And maybe it will rise to 2.5 times inside five years, which would take those sales to about $2.5 billion by the end of the decade.

所以我現在看到的是，相較於我們先前的評論——以2025年為基準年，在三到五年的期間內IGT銷售額翻倍——我們現在認為這個目標可在三年內達成，也就是比原先預期的前端提早了兩年。而且也許在五年內可提升到2.5倍，這將使這些銷售額在本十年末達到約25億美元。

So hopefully, I've covered the perspective of the investments we're making in Commercial Aero, the investments that we're anticipating making right now for GE and the way that those investments will bring additional capacities on towards the end of this decade and into the 2030s. And also, the impact should something like the first blade have a different destination, albeit we don't think it does. And we see growth in both Commercial Aero and IGT as we go into the next decade.

所以希望我已經涵蓋了我們在商用航太（Commercial Aero）所做的投資觀點、我們目前預期將為GE進行的投資，以及這些投資將如何在本十年末並延伸至2030年代帶來額外產能。同時，也談到若像第一片葉片之類的項目有不同去向時的影響，儘管我們不認為會如此。而且我們看到，隨著進入下一個十年，商用航太與IGT都將成長。

Great. Super helpful, John. Thank you very much.

很好。非常有幫助，John。非常感謝。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

Seth Seifman，摩根大通（JPMorgan）。

Hey, thanks very much, and good morning. Maybe just to round that out, and this might be kind of a quick one in light of your prior comments, but it might be a good time to round out. You kind of addressed fairly directly potential impact from CPP and on your plans in Aero. When you think about the IGT plant, how do you think about the role of potentially in-sourcing at SpaceX and what that might mean for the IGT market?

嗨，非常感謝，早安。也許只是把這點補完整，考量你先前的評論，這可能是個很快的問題，但現在可能是個把它補完整的好時機。你已相當直接地談到CPP可能帶來的影響以及對你們航太計畫的影響。當你們思考IGT工廠時，你們如何看待SpaceX可能進行內製（in-sourcing）的角色，以及這對IGT市場可能意味著什麼？

Thanks, Seth, and good morning. First, maybe the comment I should make is that SpaceX is indeed an extraordinary company, which has almost limitless access to capital. And I guess, fundamental to their current plans as the company indeed is to build out sort of the data center business, I think referred to as Colossus 1 and 2.

謝謝你，Seth，早安。首先，我可能要先說的是，SpaceX確實是一家非凡的公司，幾乎擁有無限的資本取得能力。而且我想，他們目前的核心計畫之一，確實是擴建某種資料中心業務，我認為稱為Colossus 1和2。

And if you study that part of SpaceX in detail, then it's clear that they sold capacity of those, let's say, ultra modern data centers with the latest, let's say, custom silicon in them to other frontier AI companies such as Google and Anthropic to name a couple. I think it's important again to note that for those cutting-edge data centers, the gross margins on the tokens that you use like AI token is exceptional. And I'm sure you're aware of how high those are.

如果你仔細研究SpaceX這一部分，就會很清楚他們把這些——姑且稱之為——採用最新、例如客製化矽晶片（custom silicon）的超現代資料中心之產能，出售給其他前沿AI公司，例如Google與Anthropic等。我認為同樣重要的是要注意，對於這些尖端資料中心，你使用的token（例如AI token）所帶來的毛利率非常驚人。我相信你也知道那有多高。

And hence, the uptime and keeping those data centers going is fundamental and indeed, you can't have interruption of service to that really important revenue stream with that level of margin. And I'm sure it's in that contract with those front AI companies. Specific to that is on their recent earnings call at SpaceX, they talked about power and specifically behind the meter power and its acquisition, which is so fundamental to achieving that compute increase and switching the compute capabilities are.

因此，維持正常運作時間（uptime）並讓這些資料中心持續運轉至關重要；事實上，在那樣的毛利水準下，你不可能讓這條極其重要的營收來源出現服務中斷。我相信這也會寫進他們與那些前沿AI公司的合約裡。與此相關的是，在SpaceX最近的財報電話會議上，他們談到電力，特別是表後電力（behind the meter power）及其取得，這對於實現運算量提升與切換運算能力是非常根本的。

So to solve those power issues and to get to today's level of compute power, which is using about approximately 1 gigawatt then SpaceX bought the APR company and its fleet of mobile gas turbines to solve the problem. And so these 69 mobile gas turbines were installed and are situated just across the state line to support Colossus. And that power is needed in addition to what power was available from the grid.

因此，為了解決這些電力問題並達到今天的運算能力水準（約使用1吉瓦），SpaceX收購了APR公司及其行動燃氣渦輪機（mobile gas turbines）機隊來解決問題。因此，這69台行動燃氣渦輪機已完成安裝，並部署在州界線的另一側以支援Colossus。而且除了電網可提供的電力之外，還需要這部分電力。

And then I guess you know that by the middle of next year, those mobile turbines have to be relocated. And therefore, replacement is required and I think currently to approximately 1.2 gigawatts of parallel to support the Colossus center. And so my understanding from scouring of the Internet and knowing a little bit about the inside of the industry, there are some 33, I'll say, fully fledged titan turbines from Solar or Caterpillar, being installed and a further 10 ProEnergy PE6000 series turbines. And you're probably not surprised when I say that Howmet supply those turbine blades to both Titan and to the LM6000 series of aeroderivative turbines.

接著我想你也知道，到明年年中，這些行動渦輪機必須搬遷。因此需要替代方案；我認為目前大約需要1.2吉瓦的並聯電力來支援Colossus中心。根據我在網路上蒐集的資訊，以及我對產業內部的一些了解，目前大約有33台——我會說——來自Solar或Caterpillar的完整Titan渦輪機正在安裝，另外還有10台ProEnergy PE6000系列渦輪機。而你可能不會意外我會說，Howmet同時為Titan以及LM6000系列航改型（aeroderivative）渦輪機供應渦輪葉片。

Getting a bit deeper into it then, on the recent call, Elon Musk talked about his plans going forward for 2027 and he talked about the plans to get to 20 gigawatts of power capabilities to provide you -- to turn on further compute capabilities. And this is by various means, obviously, IGT, wind, solar, the grid, et cetera, et cetera. So it's not coming from one singular source, but part of this was that gas turbines were fundamental to it. And if it's not 20 gigawatts than maybe the thought was at least 10 gigawatts of power could be achieved on top of getting to a 3 gigawatt capability by the mid-year and to be able to turn on that additional compute capacity and then earn that -- those high profits.

再深入一點，在最近那通電話會議上，Elon Musk談到他對2027年的後續計畫，並提到要把電力能力提升到20吉瓦，以便你們——去啟用更多運算能力。而這會透過各種方式來達成，顯然包括IGT、風電、太陽能、電網等等。所以不會來自單一來源，但其中一部分是燃氣渦輪機在這裡是關鍵。而且如果不是20吉瓦，那麼想法可能至少是在年中達到3吉瓦能力的基礎上，再額外實現至少10吉瓦的電力，從而能啟用額外的運算產能，並賺取——那些高額利潤。

And he did comment that to do this, new turbines were required but even like the problem is that the availability of those turbines was restricted in the industry by the availability of turbine blades. And it was commented on the call by SpaceX that these might take another 18 months to 2 years to achieve and therefore, maybe that SpaceX could accelerate the ability of power by providing the blades to those turbines, which turbine could be built, but the availability of the blades wasn't there.

他確實評論說，要做到這點需要新的渦輪機；但問題在於，產業內渦輪機的供應可得性受到渦輪葉片供應可得性的限制。SpaceX在電話會議上提到，這可能還需要再18個月到2年才能達成；因此，SpaceX也許可以透過為這些渦輪機提供葉片來加速電力供應——渦輪機本體可以製造，但葉片供應跟不上。

And my understanding is that, one Asian turbine manufacturing company has agreed to supply turbines without the blades, and I assume that those are central to the capability of casting that SpaceX talks about with their special casting capabilities. So I think the SpaceX that can take that step. And maybe even if those blades are not quite at the level that would have been for the original equipment, they can operate at a power rating maybe below the full power rating of the turbine, and it's full durability. But the important thing, it gets power.

而我的理解是，有一家亞洲渦輪機製造公司已同意供應不含葉片的渦輪機；我推測這些葉片正是SpaceX所談到、其特殊鑄造能力（special casting capabilities）所能鑄造的核心部件。所以我認為SpaceX可以採取那一步。而且即使那些葉片的水準未必完全達到原始設備（OEM）的等級，它們也可以在可能低於渦輪機滿載額定功率的功率等級下運轉，並具備完整耐久性。但重點是，它能提供電力。

And if you think about -- this is all about our acquisition, and what we see generally both for SpaceX and across the industry, the data centers are and constructors are reaching out to get power from any source and whether it's by generations of turbines, I think going back to like an E-series turbine, not today's F-series or are the more modern H-series, just got a series-E and in addition to that, you've probably read about several start-ups, venture companies, they're looking to get into this segment and launch new companies to provide power using aero derivative engines, which are really at the end of life or aero engines and repurpose them of, let's say, old 737s, as an example.

如果你從——這一切都與我們的收購有關——以及我們對SpaceX與整個產業普遍看到的情況來看，資料中心與建置方正四處尋求任何來源的電力；無論是透過不同世代的渦輪機發電，我想甚至回到像E系列渦輪機——不是今天的F系列或更現代的H系列——而是E系列；此外，你可能也讀到有幾家新創、創投公司正試圖進入這個領域，成立新公司，利用航改型引擎（aero derivative engines）來供電——這些引擎其實是壽命末期的航太引擎，並將其再利用，例如把老舊737的引擎拿來改作發電用途。

And our thought is that beneath power, those companies will exist and they will start, but maybe they'll become less necessary when additional turbine capacity is brought on stream towards the end of the decade and into next decade. So I'm trying to give like a specific SpaceX answer to your question and then broad it out into the needs of power to achieve the compute levels, which are being planned.

而我們的看法是，在電力需求之下，這些公司會存在、也會開始運作，但當更多渦輪機產能在本十年末並延伸到下一個十年陸續投產後，它們的重要性可能會降低。所以我試著先就SpaceX針對你的問題給出較具體的回答，然後再把它擴展到為達成規劃中的運算水準所需的電力需求。

And then I took note and you probably took note from the GE Vernova call yesterday, their earnings call, they said that now they see that their 2032 order book is largely filled and that obviously, if you think about it, we've talked about being good through '28, good through 2030. Now it's looking at 2031. 2032 looks to be pretty booked.

然後我也注意到——你大概也從昨天 GE Vernova 的電話會議、他們的財報電話會議中注意到了——他們表示，現在他們看到 2032 年的訂單簿基本上已大致填滿；而且很顯然，如果你想一想，我們一直在談到 2028 年之前都不錯、到 2030 年之前都不錯。現在看起來是在看 2031 年。2032 年看起來也相當接近滿檔。

And so views are now turning towards the middle of the next decade for this level of capacity. And my thought is as we see each of those then today's level of investment that we're envisaging is probably not enough. So I don't know whether that covers your specific question, Seth, and then broaden it out into of what's going on for data centers.

因此，市場的看法現在正轉向下一個十年的中段，來看待這個層級的產能。而我的想法是，隨著我們看到每一個這樣的訊號，今天我們所設想的投資水準很可能還不夠。所以我不確定這是否回答了你具體的問題，Seth，然後再把它延伸到資料中心正在發生的事情。

Yes. No. Excellent. Super helpful. Thank you.

是的。不。非常好。非常有幫助。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

Sheila Kahyaoglu，Jefferies。

Good morning, guys, and thank you so much. John, you mentioned the Blue Blade coming in the 2030s. It's the first time you've talked about that. Obviously, your technology edge is what provides you additional content on the LEAP and GTF and I'm sure you're first in line for the next-gen LEAP blade. Maybe can you quantify for folks how much of your growth is coming from that technology edge content increases versus just volume and price? And perhaps to that kind of question, as you think about industry players perhaps starting from a more square one, how do you think about what supply/demand looks like today versus 2030 and 2035 and 2040?

各位早安，非常感謝。John，你提到 Blue Blade 會在 2030 年代推出。這是你第一次談到這件事。顯然，你們的技術領先優勢，讓你們在 LEAP 和 GTF 上能提供更多的內容價值（content），我也相信你們一定是下一代 LEAP 葉片的第一順位供應商。你能否幫大家量化一下，你們的成長有多少來自於這種技術優勢帶來的內容增加，相較於單純的出貨量與價格？另外也延伸這個問題，當你思考產業參與者可能從比較接近「從零開始」的狀態出發時，你怎麼看今天相較於 2030、2035、2040 年的供需狀況？

Okay. I guess thematically, what we have been trying to do is step up to the need for fuel efficiency in the industry and providing a level of capability, particularly at the front end of the hot section of the turbine, which could achieve performances at considerably higher temperatures, and indeed the pressure those turbine blades are under, and therefore the structural integrity of them.

好的。我想從主題上來說，我們一直在努力做的是回應產業對燃油效率的需求，並提供一種能力水準，特別是在渦輪熱端（hot section）前段，能在顯著更高的溫度下達成性能；同時也要能承受那些渦輪葉片所面臨的壓力，因此也關乎其結構完整性。

And we've been doing that and increasing it with each generation or part generations and updates during the course of the life of the engines. And everybody is familiar with the upgrades currently going on for the LEAP part of the hot section for CFM, led by GE. And that's already been launched for the LEAP-1A engine for Airbus last year. And we are currently now building in considerable volumes for the LEAP-1B, albeit those volumes are, I think, going through then all the normal processing, which will probably lead to a launch in -- sometime during the first quarter of 2027.

而我們一直在做這件事，並且在每一代、或部分世代，以及在引擎全生命週期中的更新升級中持續提升。大家都很熟悉目前針對 CFM 的 LEAP 熱端所進行的升級，由 GE 主導。這項升級去年已在 Airbus 的 LEAP-1A 引擎上推出。而我們目前也正在為 LEAP-1B 以相當可觀的量產能在生產，儘管我認為這些量產仍在走完所有正常的流程，可能會導致在——大概 2027 年第一季的某個時間點——正式導入（launch）。

At the same time, we are also building and increasing our levels of production for the geared turbofan advantage. And again, with a similar theme of increasing the thermal performance capabilities for the turbine blades for that engine, and because that has to operate at even a higher temperature level, and I have already described on previous calls about how we are approaching that.

同時，我們也在為齒輪傳動渦扇（geared turbofan）的優勢方案提升並增加我們的產量水準。同樣以提升該引擎渦輪葉片的熱性能能力為主軸；而因為它必須在更高的溫度水準下運轉，我在先前的電話會議中也已描述過我們如何因應。

And indeed, when you think about what is going to drive the economics of aircraft going over the next, let us say, decade, given the fact that inside the decade, it is probably unlikely that we are going to see totally new aircraft from Boeing or Airbus is that further improvements to fuel efficiency will be required, and hence the need to continue to upgrade those part of the turbines to provide that increased fuel efficiency, especially today, given the cost of jet fuel and maybe what it will cost during that period of time.

而且，當你思考未來——比方說——接下來十年將驅動飛機經濟性的因素時，鑑於在這十年內，我們大概不太可能看到 Boeing 或 Airbus 推出全新機型，因此就需要進一步提升燃油效率；也因此需要持續升級渦輪的那些部位，以提供更高的燃油效率，尤其是在今天航油成本的情況下，以及在那段期間航油可能的成本水準。

So thematically, it is just the same. What we envisaged is that further OE production will be required over the next few years with the increases envisaged by the airframe manufacturers and the engines to be supplied to them, whether it is for Boeing or indeed Airbus. And if you think about it, those things are not going to stand still. There's going to be further content increases. And so I expect that we'll see, during the next decade, the further capacity that's going to be required for OE, further capacity that's going to be required to service these, I'll say, new fleet of engines and their improvements.

所以主題上是一樣的。我們所設想的是，未來幾年隨著機體製造商所規劃的增產，以及需要供應給他們的引擎（不論是 Boeing 或 Airbus），將需要更多的原廠（OE）產量。而如果你想一想，這些事情不會停滯不前。內容價值（content）還會進一步增加。因此我預期，在下一個十年，我們會看到：OE 所需的額外產能、以及為這些——我稱之為——新一代機隊引擎及其改良提供維修服務所需的額外產能。

And I also think that fundamentally, when you put higher temperatures, higher pressure into engines, is that the replacement cycles actually become more frequent. And so we do envisage a very healthy spares demand over that same period of time. And you can see that by the build-out of further MRO shop capabilities, in fact, by all of the engine manufacturers. You can look at GE, Safran in particular, and also Pratt & Whitney. Everybody is building that capacity for further MRO refurb capabilities.

我也認為，從根本上來說，當你把更高的溫度、更高的壓力導入引擎時，零件更換週期其實會變得更頻繁。因此我們確實預期在同一段期間內，備品（spares）需求會非常健康。你也可以從所有引擎製造商擴建更多 MRO 維修廠能力看出這點。你可以看 GE、Safran 尤其明顯，還有 Pratt & Whitney。大家都在建置更多產能，用於進一步的 MRO 翻修能力。

So the broad view is, we're going to increase capacity, increase revenues into the aero segment during the next five years and 10 years and just keep the same thing going and continue to develop our technology. And here we are again, having already recruited in the last five years, probably several hundred engineers. We're going to increase our engineering staffing again in 2027 by a similar number that we did in 2025 and 2026, as an example, to keep ourselves at the forefront of all the developments.

所以整體觀點是：我們將在未來五年與十年內提升產能、提高航太事業部的營收，並持續推進同樣的方向，繼續發展我們的技術。而我們也再次在這裡——在過去五年中，我們已經招募了可能數百位工程師。我們也將在 2027 年再次增加工程人力編制，增幅大致會與我們在 2025 與 2026 年所做的相近，作為例子，以確保我們始終站在所有發展的最前沿。

Great. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

John Godyn, Citi.

John Godyn，Citi。

Follow-up on the outlook for the defense portfolio. John, you flagged that you don't have any replenishment of inventories kind of in your outlook, but the demand signals are very strong. It feels like not long ago, we were talking about IGT in a similar way. Maybe you can talk about the scale of the opportunity there? And just give us whatever color you're sort of willing to offer. Thank you.

針對國防產品組合展望的追問。John，你提到在你的展望中並沒有把庫存回補納入考量，但需求訊號非常強。感覺不久之前，我們也曾以類似方式在談 IGT。也許你可以談談那裡的機會規模？以及提供一些你願意分享的觀察或補充。謝謝。

Yeah. Right now, defense is difficult to really give absolute clarity on in terms of expectation apart from thematically what we're seeing is both the need for replenishment of inventories and parts. Of course, to some degree, we're not clear on the numbers of missions, which have been flowing over the last three months. But I think you can assume that they've been extensive and not going to require us to provide provision for a replenishment of spares as we go through 2027, the degree to which we'll probably be also guided by the defense budget rather than the current situation where we have a continuing resolution of the existing level of expenditure. So I expect that sometime after the midterm that might become more clear.

是的。目前國防領域很難在預期上給出絕對清晰的說法；不過從主題上我們看到的是：既有庫存與零件都需要回補。當然，在某種程度上，我們並不清楚過去三個月任務（missions）的實際數量。但我想你可以假設任務量相當可觀；而且在我們走到 2027 年的過程中，將需要我們提供備品回補的準備（provision for a replenishment of spares）。至於程度多大，我們可能也會更多地受到國防預算的指引，而不是目前這種以既有支出水準延續的臨時撥款（continuing resolution）狀態所主導。所以我預期在期中選舉之後的某個時間點，情況可能會更明朗。

At the same time, there's a lot of other questions that have to be answered in terms of truly definitizing all of the missile work that's there, it's there before us. We've been spending a lot of time with the existing large primes and indeed, some of the, I'll say, newer defense companies getting ready for really putting that into production, albeit again waiting for final definitization of every aspect of the contract as we do that.

同時，還有許多其他問題需要回答，才能真正把眼前所有的飛彈相關工作完全定案（definitize）。我們已經花了很多時間與現有的大型主承包商（large primes）合作，並且也與一些——我會說——較新的國防公司合作，為真正把這些工作導入量產做準備；但同樣地，在我們推進時仍在等待合約各個面向的最終定案。

So again, probably my thought is that given the situation regarding missiles is that at some point after the midterm, then Congress comes back. The bipartisan agreement is achieved to give us a clarity regarding the defense budget for 2027. And indeed, going forward, given we're now talking about not the individual lots, but multiyear contracts, which are also critical to investments in this area.

所以再說一次，我的想法大概是，鑑於飛彈相關的情勢，在期中選舉之後的某個時間點，國會會回來開議。兩黨將達成協議，讓我們對2027年的國防預算有更清楚的明確性。而且確實，往後來看，因為我們現在談的不是單一批次（lots），而是多年期合約（multiyear contracts），這對於在這個領域的投資也同樣至關重要。

So while I sort of -- I'm optimistic. I think it's going to be good for us in our planning round. We see the opportunity it's difficult to be precise about it. But we do expect our defense sales to be up in 2027 from what we already know but with an agreed budget, it may become more robust for us.

所以雖然我有點——我是樂觀的。我認為這會對我們的規劃循環很有利。我們看得到機會，但很難精準量化。不過，根據我們目前已知的情況，我們確實預期2027年的國防銷售會上升；但若有一個已達成共識的預算，對我們而言可能會更強勁。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

Bernstein 的 Doug Harned。

Can you hear me? Yes?

聽得到我嗎？可以嗎？

Yeah, we can hear you.

對，我們聽得到你。

Okay, good. So John, when you talk about IGT demand, it's really -- it seems like a pretty extraordinary profile going forward. You're up 45% in the quarter, which suggests you've already built ahead of some of this demand, a substantial amount of capacity. And yet, I think the seven contracts that you set with, the one in Japan being first, that's not even kicked in yet.

好，太好了。所以 John，當你談到 IGT 需求時，這真的——看起來未來的走勢相當不尋常。你這一季成長了45%，這表示你可能已經為了部分需求提前建置了相當可觀的產能。然而，我想你所簽下的那七份合約，其中日本那一份是第一個，但甚至都還沒開始貢獻。

So I guess, looking forward to this demand profile, can you give us a sense of sort of when these next tranches would come in? But I think more importantly, given your position and the supply-demand imbalance, how should we expect margins to trend on IGT going forward relative to the rest of the business and particularly the Aero Engine side?

所以我想，展望這個需求曲線，你能否讓我們大概了解一下接下來幾個批次（tranches）會在什麼時點進來？但我認為更重要的是，考量你們的市場地位以及供需失衡，未來 IGT 的毛利率走勢，相對於公司其他業務、尤其是航太發動機（Aero Engine）端，我們應該如何預期？

Yeah. I've talked about margins in the past, Douglas, seeing really that our IGT margins and aerospace margins are roughly similar. I mean should the rate of growth continue in the IGT space, then we probably would have a little bit of leverage to that volume just against the fixed costs associated with that segment. But I see it more of a continuing -- I'll say, a continuum of development looking for revenue growth with healthy profitability because we really look to have long-term relationships with our customers, never seek to take advantage and because there's always tomorrow to think about.

是的。Douglas，我過去談過毛利率，我們的觀察是 IGT 毛利率與航太毛利率大致相近。我的意思是，如果 IGT 領域的成長速度持續，那麼相對於該事業部門的固定成本，我們大概會因為量的增加而有一些槓桿效益。但我更把它視為一個持續——我會說是一個連續的發展過程：在追求營收成長的同時維持健康的獲利能力，因為我們確實希望與客戶建立長期關係，從不想趁機占便宜，因為總是要想到明天。

And we've tried to be really good partners not only with the aero engine customers I listed earlier in response to the first call. But also for our IGT customers, and that's whether it is, as you've mentioned, Mitsubishi for Japan or whether it's GE Vernova or Siemens or is it Solar, Baker Hughes and Doosan. We try to work with all of them in a very consistent way. And in terms of growth rates, it's also -- it's been trying to find something on what's been a moving target. And in fact, we're already in discussions for the willingness to capacitize for additional demand and indeed also introduce new product developments for the industry as we go through the end of the decade into the early 2030s.

而且我們一直努力成為很好的合作夥伴，不僅是我先前在回應第一個提問時提到的那些航太發動機客戶。對於 IGT 客戶也是如此，不論是你提到的日本三菱（Mitsubishi），或是 GE Vernova、Siemens，或是 Solar、Baker Hughes 以及 Doosan。我們嘗試以非常一致的方式與他們所有人合作。至於成長率，這也——一直是在試著抓住一個不斷變動的目標。事實上，我們已經在討論是否願意為額外需求進一步擴充產能，並且在我們走到本十年末、進入2030年代初期時，也會為產業導入新的產品開發。

And so in fact, this week, it was looking at a new part introduction for particularly sophisticated type of large IGT blades for a customer that doesn't start until 2031. And so we're looking at all of that. I'm trying to pathetize for it recognizing that no matter what we do, it seems like we're not going to be able to totally satisfy what the demands appear to be for 2027 as an example. So we're going to be investing. We've invested this year. We're going to invest again at a higher level in 2027.

所以其實就在這週，我們在看一個新零件導入，特別是針對某位客戶、非常高階的大型 IGT 葉片（blades），而那個案子要到2031年才開始。所以我們在看所有這些。我正在嘗試為此做規劃，同時也認知到，不管我們怎麼做，似乎都不可能完全滿足例如2027年所呈現出的需求。所以我們會投資。我們今年已經投資了。我們在2027年會再投資，而且投資水準會更高。

And the way things are shaping is that I sense that we're going to have a very continuing high level of capital expenditure into 2028. And we keep reevaluating this, but for ourselves is that given we try to take a very clear-eyed view of capacitization is that for every year, we see an elevated CapEx then give us a little bit of confidence about that future growth and its solidity going into the next decade. And so clearly, we're not going to invest at this sort of levels in '28 and '29, if we're not sure about those revenue increases that are going to happen in the 2030s.

而從目前的態勢來看，我的感覺是，我們在2028年之前都會維持非常高的資本支出水準。我們會持續重新評估；但對我們自己而言，因為我們試著以非常清醒的角度看待產能擴充（capacitization），所以每一年只要看到資本支出仍處於較高水準，就會讓我們對未來成長及其在進入下一個十年時的穩固性多一點信心。因此很明顯，如果我們不確定2030年代會發生那些營收增長，我們不會在2028、2029年還以這種水準投資。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Ron Epstein。

Yeah. Hey, John. Good morning, John and PT. Hope you guys are doing well. Just a follow-up on Doug's question. How do you get comfortable? I mean, I think you've talked about this in the past with when you try to think about where the market could be in 2030 or whatever, and you have to make investments upfront here. How do you get comfortable that it's still going to be there in 2030? You know what I mean, when you actually execute a decision.

是的。嗨，John。早安，John 和 PT。希望你們都一切順利。我想接續 Doug 的問題再追問一下。你們如何讓自己感到放心？我的意思是，我想你過去談過，當你試著思考2030年或其他時間點市場可能會是什麼樣子，而你必須在現在先行投資。你們如何確信2030年需求仍然會在？你懂我的意思嗎——當你真的要做出並執行決策時。

Yeah. I really do. I mean, it's something that we've tried to think about a lot, the security of that demand and think about it in relation to both what we see the fundamental demand in terms of construction of data centers, permitting. We saw a few months ago, there's a lot of questions around data centers in space and what would that do and try to understand that part of the demand.

是的。我真的懂。我的意思是，這是我們一直花很多心力思考的事情：需求的確定性，並把它和我們所看到的基本面需求連結起來，例如資料中心的建置、許可（permitting）。幾個月前我們看到，市場對資料中心的空間（space）有很多疑問，那會造成什麼影響，我們也試著去理解那一部分的需求。

I'm also spending time thinking about the future generations of chips and, for example, the degree to which they'll require the same amount of cooling and therefore electricity consumption. And indeed, what's the growth rate that's anticipated by the likes of an Anthropic or an OpenAI or Grok or any of the other, I'll say frontier models. And it's -- obviously, it's complicated in terms of trying to put it all together.

我也花時間思考未來幾代晶片，例如它們在多大程度上仍需要同樣的冷卻量，因而需要同樣的用電量。以及像 Anthropic、OpenAI、Grok 或其他我稱之為前沿模型（frontier models）的業者，所預期的成長率會是多少。而且——很顯然，要把這些全部整合起來是很複雜的。

And then, we fall back on, okay, so given the needs for power, what other segments could be there for us if it should stutter? And then we go to look at, for example, liquefied natural gas and the US providing energy security to Europe and all the shipping of gas across the ocean. But of course, it will have to be liquified, and so compressors used for liquification of gas. Then it's also you've got to get the liquified gas from the source through pipelines to the ports and terminals.

接著我們會回到一個思路：好，既然有電力需求，如果它（需求）出現停滯，我們還有哪些其他領域可以切入？然後我們會去看，例如液化天然氣（LNG），以及美國為歐洲提供能源安全，還有把天然氣跨洋運輸。但當然，它必須先被液化，因此需要用於天然氣液化的壓縮機。接著還有，你必須把液化天然氣從來源地透過管線輸送到港口與終端站。

And then indeed, what's going to be the demand in Europe as we see not only the likes of short-term El Niño, but also fundamental, say, changes that might be going on in climate and hotter experiences in the summer, a need for air conditioning, and therefore, what does that do to electricity demand and therefore, additional turbines, which are the only realistic means of addressing them in the next decade, to any substantial degree.

然後還有，當我們看到不只是短期的聖嬰現象（El Niño），也可能有更根本的——例如氣候正在發生的變化、夏季更炎熱的體感、對空調的需求，因此這對用電需求會造成什麼影響；進而需要更多渦輪機，而在未來十年內，要在相當程度上解決這些需求，渦輪機幾乎是唯一現實可行的方式。

And so it's a very big picture involving many different aspects to try to bring together. And then finally, okay, and what are the customer contracts that we'd like to see to make sure that we have it feel secure in providing that capacity with underpins around corridors of volumes, et cetera. While also being responsive to our customers' needs.

因此，這是一個非常宏觀的全局圖景，牽涉到許多不同面向，需要把它們整合在一起。最後，好的，我們希望看到哪些客戶合約，以確保我們在提供該產能時能感到安心，並且有以一定的量能走廊（volume corridors）等作為支撐。同時也要能回應客戶的需求。

So I'm trying to give you all the things we think about without being passed on about any one of them, because the assumptions do move. And then I will say, just the picture has been emerging for all of us over the last couple of years. But it's also something that we feel absolutely justified we should play in this sector, and we have the capabilities. In fact, some quite unique capabilities to achieve the performance required of turbine blades of this scale and this size.

所以我試著把我們會考量的所有事情都告訴你，而不是對其中任何一項過度著墨，因為這些假設確實會變動。另外我想說的是，這個整體圖像在過去幾年對我們所有人而言都逐漸成形。但這也是我們覺得自己完全有理由應該參與的領域，而且我們具備相應能力。事實上，我們還有一些相當獨特的能力，能達成這種尺度與尺寸的渦輪葉片所要求的性能。

And also, as you can imagine, what are the turbines being considered for the future, even beyond the current version of the current H-class turbines, and how big do they become, and are they all going air-cooled blades, and how sophisticated they are. And the critical change of technology which needs to be brought to bear to achieve that. So there's a lot going on this one, Rom.

而且，如你所想像的，未來會考量哪些渦輪機型，甚至超越目前這一代的現行 H 級渦輪，它們會變得多大，是否都會採用氣冷葉片，以及其複雜程度如何。以及為了達成那樣的目標，必須導入的關鍵技術變革。所以這件事牽涉很多，Rom。

Yeah. And then maybe just one quick follow-on. When you look at the end markets that you're confronted with today, I mean, just at a very high level, how strong are they? Do you ever expect to have so much demand out of all the end markets you're in between Aero, IGT, Defense? I mean it seems like everything is just ripping right now.

是的。那也許再追問一個很快的問題。當你看今天你所面對的終端市場時，我是說很高層次地看，它們有多強勁？你是否曾預期在你所涉足的所有終端市場——航空、IGT、國防——會同時出現這麼大的需求？感覺現在一切都在狂飆。

Yeah. No, we did not. I used to think to myself, well, we're sort of fortunate in one sense that airfreight manufacturers weren't able to build everything because we haven't -- we're able to continue to drive our company forward and say, improve our level of earnings capability when times are really tough, and demand was going to be more robust in the future because of the lack of build of aircraft. So I use to turn that negative into a positive about where I thought. And so I'm always looking for like how can this be better for us in the future, and how do we maximize that technology build out combined with the volume build-out?

是的。沒有，我們並沒有。我以前會想，從某個角度看我們算是幸運，因為航空貨運製造商無法把所有東西都造出來；因此我們——我們得以持續推動公司向前，並且在景氣很艱難、需求低迷的時候，仍能說：提升我們的獲利能力水準；而未來因為飛機未能充分建造，需求會更為強勁。所以我過去會把那個負面因素轉成我所認為的正面。因此我總是在想：未來怎麼讓這件事對我們更好？以及我們如何把技術擴建與產量擴建結合起來，並將其效益最大化？

I never thought that IGT would look like it is. And so I think sometimes in life, you get lucky. And this is one of the things where I feel as though we've had some good luck. But on the other hand, I temper that with all of the things that go against you and you have got to power through them. So maybe I've got to take a bit of the smooth, a little bit of the rough. So I quite like it. But I just thought -- at the same time, I don't want to get giddy about it. And certainly, overcapacitized. And that's why I spent a long time talking about the factors that I need to think about in terms of that capacitization.

我從沒想過 IGT 會變成現在這個樣子。所以我想，有時候人生就是會走運。而這就是其中一件我覺得我們有些好運的事。但另一方面，我也會用所有那些不利因素來平衡這種感受，而你必須硬著頭皮挺過去。所以也許我得在順境中也接受一點逆境。所以我其實挺喜歡的。但同時我也想——我不想因此得意忘形。更不想產能過度擴張。這也是為什麼我花了很長時間談我在產能配置（capacitization）方面需要考量的因素。

And some of that was exactly the conversation that I led our Board through, I'd say, 10 months ago and try to say to them, these are all the potential, these are the issues, these are the risks. And this is what I think we need to do. And we've coalesced into this is something that we can do, should do, and it's good for us. But you're right, I never thought that we would be seeing, I'll say, defense gas -- land-based gas turbines and aerospace, all moving in a positive way, and it's straining us. I mean you think about hundreds of engineers, thousands of production operatives, we're probably now at seven new manufacturing plants and considering three more. So there's so a lot going on. I mean, growth could be tough as well.

其中有一部分正是我大約在 10 個月前帶著董事會討論的內容：我試著跟他們說，這些都是潛在機會，這些是議題，這些是風險。而這是我認為我們需要做的事。而我們也逐步凝聚共識：這是我們能做、也應該做，而且對我們有利的事情。但你說得對，我從沒想過我們會看到——我會說，國防用燃氣——陸基燃氣渦輪與航太，全部都朝正向發展，這讓我們的資源吃緊。你想想看，數百名工程師、數千名生產作業人員，我們現在大概已經有七座新的製造工廠，還在考慮再增加三座。所以真的有很多事情在同時進行。我的意思是，成長也可能很艱難。

Yeah. Well, thank you for that, John.

是的。嗯，謝謝你，John。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

謝謝。各位女士先生，今天的最後一個問題到此為止。本次電話會議現在結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。再見。