Hancock Whitney Corp (HWC) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen.

美好的一天，女士們先生們。

Welcome to Hancock Whitney Corporation's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加 Hancock Whitney Corporation 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time.

稍後，我們將進行問答環節，屆時將有說明。

As a reminder, this call may be recorded.

謹此提醒，此通話可能會被錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Kathryn Mistich, Investor Relations Manager.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係經理凱瑟琳·米斯蒂奇 (Kathryn Mistich)。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you and good afternoon.

謝謝你，下午好。

During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述。

We would like to remind everyone to carefully review the safe harbor language that was published with the earnings release and presentation and in the company's most recent 10-K and 10-Q, including the risks and uncertainties identified therein.

我們想提醒大家仔細審查與收益報告和簡報以及公司最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 中發布的安全港語言，包括其中確定的風險和不確定性。

You should keep in mind that any forward-looking statements made by Hancock Whitney speak only as of the date on which they were made.

您應該記住，漢考克惠特尼發表的任何前瞻性聲明僅代表其發表之日的情況。

As everyone understands, the current economic environment is rapidly evolving and changing.

眾所周知，當前的經濟環境正在迅速發展和變化。

Hancock Whitney's ability to accurately project results or predict the effects of future plans or strategies, or predict market or economic developments is inherently limited.

漢考克·惠特尼準確預測結果或預測未來計劃或策略的影響，或預測市場或經濟發展的能力本質上是有限的。

We believe that the expectations reflected or implied by any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, but are not guarantees of performance or results, and our actual results and performance could differ materially from those set forth in our forward-looking statements.

我們認為，任何前瞻性陳述所反映或暗示的預期都是基於合理的假設，但不是對業績或結果的保證，我們的實際結果和業績可能與我們的前瞻性陳述中提出的結果和業績存在重大差異。

Hancock Whitney undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements.

漢考克·惠特尼不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務，並提醒您不要過度依賴此類前瞻性陳述。

Some of the remarks contain non-GAAP financial measures.

一些評論包含非公認會計準則財務措施。

You can find reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release and financial tables.

您可以在我們的收益發布和財務表格中找到最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的調整表。

The presentation slides included in our 8-K are also posted with the conference call webcast link on the Investor Relations website.

我們的 8-K 中包含的簡報幻燈片也隨電話會議網路廣播連結一起發佈在投資者關係網站上。

We will reference some of these slides in today's call.

我們將在今天的電話會議中引用其中一些幻燈片。

Participating in today's call are John Hairston, President and CEO; Mike Achary, CFO; and Chris Ziluca, Chief Credit Officer.

參加今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 John Hairston；麥克‧阿查里，財務長；和首席信貸官 Chris Ziluca。

I will now turn the call over to John Hairston.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰·海爾斯頓。

Thank you, Kathryn, and thanks everyone for joining us today.

謝謝凱瑟琳，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

We are pleased to report a solid start to 2024, which marks our 125th anniversary of helping people achieve their dreams under a charter our founders established in 1899.

我們很高興地向大家報告 2024 年的良好開局，這一年是我們根據創始人 1899 年制定的憲章幫助人們實現夢想的 125 週年。

The first quarter results reflect our efforts to continue to grow capital and to reposition our balance sheet, all while maintaining solid profitability and earnings.

第一季的業績反映了我們繼續增加資本和重新定位資產負債表的努力，同時保持穩健的獲利能力和收益。

Fee income and expenses were both flat this quarter, demonstrating our ability to take advantage of fee income opportunities and at the same time control expenses.

本季的費用收入和支出均持平，顯示我們有能力利用費用收入機會，同時控制支出。

Net interest income was down slightly this quarter, driven by lower average earning assets due to the impact of a portfolio restructure.

由於投資組合重組的影響，平均收益資產下降，本季淨利息收入略有下降。

The decrease was partially offset by a more attractive mix of earning assets, stabilization in deposit costs, and lower short-term borrowings.

這一下降被更具吸引力的盈利資產組合、穩定的存款成本和較低的短期借款部分抵消。

We ended the quarter with no wholesale borrowings except the remaining brokered CDs.

截至本季末，除了剩餘的經紀 CD 外，我們沒有批發借款。

Our continued focus on repositioning our balance sheet and prudent pricing efforts has led to NIM expansion.

我們持續關注資產負債表的重新定位和審慎的定價工作，導致淨利差擴張。

We are delighted with these results and believe we are well-positioned to take advantage of future rate decreases should they happen this year.

我們對這些結果感到高興，並相信如果今年發生未來降息，我們將處於有利地位。

Loan growth was modest this quarter and in line with what we expected for the first half of the year.

本季貸款成長溫和，符合我們對上半年的預期。

We continued our focus on more granular full relationship loans and are deemphasizing large loan-only relationships.

我們繼續關注更細粒度的全面關係貸款，並不再強調大型純貸款關係。

The team was successful at producing the loan volumes necessary to overcome our more select credit appetite and achieve overall growth with mortgage driving the growth this quarter.

該團隊成功地產生了必要的貸款量，以克服我們更多的選擇性信貸偏好，並透過抵押貸款推動本季的成長實現整體成長。

Loan pricing remains a top priority and we believe focusing on more granular credit deals will drive improved pricing on new loans.

貸款定價仍然是重中之重，我們相信專注於更精細的信用交易將推動新貸款定價的改善。

As expected, our credit quality metrics continued to normalize during the quarter and net charge-offs were modest.

正如預期的那樣，我們的信貸品質指標在本季度繼續正常化，淨沖銷也適度。

Despite the uptick in criticized commercial and non-accrual loans, we remain in the top quartile of our peers.

儘管受到批評的商業和非應計貸款有所增加，但我們仍處於同行前四分之一的位置。

Our loan portfolio is diverse and we still see no significant weakening in any specific portfolio sectors or geography.

我們的貸款組合是多元化的，我們仍然認為任何特定投資組合產業或地區都沒有顯著減弱。

We remain proactive in monitoring portfolio risk and are mindful of potential macroeconomic environments.

我們仍然積極主動監控投資組合風險，並關注潛在的宏觀經濟環境。

We continue to maintain a solid reserve of 1.42%, up slightly from the prior quarter.

我們繼續維持 1.42% 的穩健準備金，比上一季略有上升。

We are pleased with our deposit growth during the quarter of 86 million, which included the maturity of 195 million in brokered deposits.

我們對本季存款增加 8,600 萬美元感到滿意，其中包括 1.95 億到期的經紀存款。

Excluding the impact of brokered deposits, client deposits were up 281 million this quarter.

剔除經紀存款的影響，本季客戶存款增加了 2.81 億美元。

We saw growth in money markets and in CDs due to promotional pricing we offered on both of these account types.

由於我們為這兩種帳戶類型提供促銷定價，我們看到了貨幣市場和 CD 的成長。

The DDA remix continued, but overall pace continues to slow.

DDA 混音仍在繼續，但整體節奏繼續放緩。

We ended the quarter with 36% of our deposits in DDAs.

本季結束時，我們 36% 的存款存於 DDA。

We are also proud to report continued improvement in all of our capital ratios.

我們也自豪地報告我們所有資本比率的持續改善。

Our TCE grew to 8.62% and our common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 12.67%.

本季結束時，我們的 TCE 成長至 8.62%，普通股一級資本比率為 12.67%。

Our capital metrics continue to be supported by our solid earnings.

我們的資本指標持續受到我們穩健的獲利的支持。

We remain well capitalized, inclusive of all AOCI and unrealized losses.

我們的資本充足，包括所有 AOCI 和未實現損失。

A quick note on guidance.

關於指導的快速說明。

We did not make any updates to our guidance this quarter, which Mike will further address in his commentary next.

本季我們沒有對我們的指導進行任何更新，麥克將在接下來的評論中進一步解決這一問題。

As we look forward to celebrating our 125th year and beyond, we believe we continue to position ourselves to effectively navigate any operating environment.

在我們期待慶祝 125 週年及以後的日子裡，我們相信我們將繼續定位自己，以有效應對任何營運環境。

With that, I'll invite Mike to add additional color.

接下來，我將邀請麥克添加更多色彩。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

First quarter's reported net income was 109 million or 1.24 per share.

第一季公佈的淨利潤為 1.09 億美元，即每股 1.24 美元。

We did accrue an additional net charge of 3.8 million, or 0.04 per share for the FDIC special assessment this quarter.

本季度，我們確實為 FDIC 特別評估額外增加了 380 萬美元的淨費用，即每股 0.04 美元。

Excluding this item, net income would have been 112 million, or 1.28 per share.

剔除該項目，淨利潤為 1.12 億美元，即每股收益 1.28 美元。

Adjusted PPNR was 153 million, down about 3 million from the prior quarter, but in line with expectations.

調整後的 PPNR 為 1.53 億，較上季下降約 300 萬，但符合預期。

Our NIM did expand 5 basis points this quarter, but NII was down mostly due to a smaller average earning asset base.

本季我們的淨利差確實擴大了 5 個基點，但淨利息收入下降主要是由於平均獲利資產基礎較小。

Fees and expenses were in line and flat with last quarter.

費用和支出與上季持平。

As mentioned, we saw NIM expansion this quarter with NIM of 3.32%, up 5 basis points from the prior quarter.

如前所述，本季淨利差擴大，淨利差為 3.32%，比上一季上升 5 個基點。

As shown on Slide 15 of the investor deck, our NIM performance was driven by higher securities yields following our bond portfolio restructuring last quarter, a slower rate of deposit cost increases in NIB remix, improved funding mix, and then finally higher loan yields.

如同投資者投影片 15 所示，我們的淨利差表現受到上季債券投資組合重組後證券收益率上升、NIB 重組中存款成本成長放緩、融資組合改善以及最終貸款收益率上升的推動。

NII was down primarily due to lower average earning assets following the bond portfolio restructuring, but the decline was partially offset by improved earning asset mix and lower levels of wholesale funding.

NII 下降主要是由於債券投資組合重組後平均收益資產下降，但下降幅度被收益資產組合改善和批發融資水準下降部分抵銷。

In fact, we ended the quarter with zero FHLB advances.

事實上，本季末我們的 FHLB 預付款為零。

After the brokered CD maturity of 195 million this quarter, we only have 395 million remaining.

在本季 1.95 億的經紀 CD 到期後，我們只剩下 3.95 億。

Those mature in May.

那些在五月成熟的。

Our intent as of now would be to not renew the May brokered CD maturities.

目前我們的意圖是不再續簽 5 月經紀 CD 的到期日。

Deposit costs were up 8 basis points to 2.01% from 1.93% in the fourth quarter.

存款成本從第四季的 1.93% 上升 8 個基點至 2.01%。

The month of March actually came in a bit lower at 2%, an indicator that we have reached a peak this quarter and deposit costs may begin to turn over.

3 月的利率實際上略低，為 2%，這表明本季我們已達到峰值，存款成本可能開始回升。

The moderation in deposit cost was driven by slower DDA deposit remix, higher growth, and lower cost interest bearing transaction accounts and the brokered CD maturity.

存款成本的放緩是由於 DDA 存款重組速度放緩、成長加快、計息交易帳戶成本降低以及經紀 CD 到期日推動的。

Our total deposit beta remains at 37% cycle to date.

迄今為止，我們的總存款 Beta 週期仍維持在 37%。

The most significant driver of deposit costs going forward will be repricing activity on CDs.

未來存款成本最重要的驅動因素將是存款證的重新定價活動。

On the earning asset side, our securities yield was up 9 basis points to 2.56%, primarily due to the full quarter's realization of the bond portfolio restructuring transaction.

在獲利資產方面，我們的證券殖利率上升9個基點至2.56%，主要得益於全季債券組合重組交易的實現。

The yield in the month of March was 2.58% and we expect to see further yield improvement with portfolio reinvestments this year.

3 月的收益率為 2.58%，我們預計今年投資組合再投資的收益率將進一步提高。

We expect just under $600 million in principal cash flow from the bond portfolio over the next three quarters.

我們預計未來三個季度債券投資組合的本金現金流將略低於 6 億美元。

Those cash flows will come off at around 2.9%, could get reinvested at yields of around 200 basis points higher.

這些現金流的收益率約為 2.9%，可能會以高出約 200 個基點的收益率進行再投資。

Our loan yield improved to 6.16% this quarter, up 5 basis points linked quarter.

本季我們的貸款收益率提高至 6.16%，季增 5 個基點。

The rate of yield growth on loans has slowed as much of the impact of 2023's rate hikes were fully priced in during the fourth quarter.

由於 2023 年升息的大部分影響已在第四季度充分體現，貸款收益率增速已放緩。

However, we remain focused on maximizing loan pricing.

然而，我們仍然專注於最大化貸款定價。

As we think about our NIM in 2024, our guidance remains unchanged and includes three rate cuts at 25 basis points each in June, September, and December this year.

當我們考慮 2024 年的淨利差時，我們的指引保持不變，包括今年 6 月、9 月和 12 月三次降息，每次 25 個基點。

We continue to expect modest NIM expansion across the next three quarters.

我們繼續預計未來三個季度淨利差將小幅擴張。

Headwinds include some level of continuing deposit remix, which has slowed, but we do expect that any rate cuts will be a tailwind as we are able to reprice CD maturities lower in the second half of the year.

逆風包括一定程度的持續存款重組，這種情況已經放緩，但我們確實預計任何降息都將是順風，因為我們能夠在下半年對定期存單期限進行重新定價。

Fee income was flat this quarter as we benefited from strong activity in investment and annuity income.

本季的費用收入持平，因為我們受益於投資和年金收入的強勁活動。

Expenses excluding the special FDIC assessment were up less than 1% this quarter, reflecting our focus on controlling costs throughout the company.

本季度，不包括 FDIC 特別評估在內的費用增加了不到 1%，這反映出我們對控制整個公司成本的重視。

As noted, we have not changed our forward guidance this quarter, which is summarized on Slide 22 of the investor deck.

如前所述，我們沒有改變本季的前瞻性指引，投資者平台的幻燈片 22 對此進行了總結。

However, we have included a disclosure around what we believe the impact on PPNR will be if there are no rate cuts this year.

然而，我們已經披露了我們認為如果今年不降息將對 PPNR 造成的影響。

Lastly, a quick comment on capital.

最後，對資本進行快速評論。

As John mentioned, our capital ratios remain remarkably strong and continue to grow.

正如約翰所提到的，我們的資本比率仍然非常強勁，並且繼續成長。

In our efforts to manage capital in the best interest of our company and our shareholders, we may pivot to looking at our common dividend and the potential resumption of buybacks under our current authority at some point later this year.

在我們努力以公司和股東的最佳利益管理資本的過程中，我們可能會在今年稍後的某個時候轉向考慮我們的普通股息以及在我們目前的權力下恢復回購的可能性。

I will now turn the call back to John.

我現在將把電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Let's open the call for questions.

讓我們開始提問吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Catherine Mealor, KBW.

凱瑟琳·梅勒，KBW。

Thanks, good afternoon.

謝謝，下午好。

Hi, Catherine.

嗨，凱瑟琳。

I wanted to start on credit.

我想從信用開始。

Just want to see if you could give us some more color on the increase in non-performers and criticized assets that you show in the slide deck.

只是想看看您是否可以為我們提供有關幻燈片中顯示的不良資產和批評資產增加的更多資訊。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Catherine.

謝謝，凱瑟琳。

It's Chris Ziluca.

我是克里斯·齊盧卡。

Hey, Chris.

嘿，克里斯。

One of the things that we wanted -- I wanted to point out is, we continue to really operate at historically low levels, criticized and non-approval loans.

我想指出的是，我們想要的事情之一是，我們繼續以歷史低水平運營，受到批評和不批准的貸款。

And also wanted to point out that we also have a pretty low level of modified loans.

還想指出的是，我們的修改貸款水準也相當低。

We're at about 16 basis points of modified loans.

我們目前的貸款調整幅度約為 16 個基點。

But we did see, as you noted and the slide deck points out on Page 12, that we did have an increase in criticized loan movement, net movement in during the quarter.

但我們確實看到，正如您所指出的以及第 12 頁上的幻燈片所指出的那樣，我們確實增加了受批評的貸款變動，即本季度的淨變動。

We spent some time kind of looking at the various categories and geographies and really couldn't find any continued common factor between any of them.

我們花了一些時間研究各種類別和地理位置，但確實找不到它們之間任何持續的共同因素。

And I guess what I would say is, from my perspective, I think a lot of companies in general have been enjoying historically the high level of liquidity, which has kind of burned down.

我想我想說的是，從我的角度來看，我認為很多公司總體上一直享受著歷史上的高流動性，但這種流動性已經被燒毀了。

And with the current economic environment and the higher interest rates, I think operating costs are a little bit higher for some.

鑑於當前的經濟環境和較高的利率，我認為對某些人來說營運成本有點高。

And so there's probably some challenges in general.

因此，總體而言可能存在一些挑戰。

And I guess I would say that that's probably mostly the common theme that I would be seeing in the movement to criticize.

我想我會說這可能是我在批評運動中看到的主要共同主題。

But I don't really see anything substantial that's within even those movements.

但即使是這些運動，我也沒有真正看到任何實質內容。

Matter of fact, I believe that over time, they'll probably resolve themselves.

事實上，我相信隨著時間的推移，他們可能會自己解決。

And similarly with non-accruals during the quarter, really was driven by a single commercial credit.

與本季的非應計項目類似，實際上是由單一商業信貸驅動的。

We appropriately charged that credit down to a point where we feel confident in its ongoing success after the charge down.

我們適當地將信貸費用降低到我們對其在收費後持續成功充滿信心的程度。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And would you say that non-performer that moved most of the charge-offs this quarter were related to that one credit?

您是否認為本季大部分沖銷的不良企業都與該一項信用有關？

Yes, they were.

是的，他們是。

Okay.

好的。

And then in the -- I think criticized, it looks like it's about a 66 million increase.

然後，我認為受到批評的是，看起來增加了約 6,600 萬。

Are there any larger credits within there or is it mostly just smaller credits to your point, it was no real trend?

其中是否有更大的學分，或者對於您的觀點來說，它主要只是較小的學分，這不是真正的趨勢？

But just curious if there are any kind of lumpy credits within there?

但只是好奇裡面是否有任何不穩定的積分？

It's probably a mix.

這可能是一個混合。

I mean, I think there are some, I guess, medium-sized credits, I would call them, that are in there.

我的意思是，我認為裡面有一些我認為是中等規模的片尾字幕。

But I think a lot of -- I mean, even when I look at some of the larger credits, the really medium size, I would call them, I see them as kind of the transitory situation for those larger ones where they've maybe had a little bit of a revenue challenge that needs to be dealt with through the right sizing of their operating expense load.

但我認為很多 - 我的意思是，即使當我看到一些較大的學分，真正中等規模的學分，我會稱之為它們，我認為它們是那些較大的學分的暫時情況，他們可能已經面臨一些收入挑戰，需要透過正確調整營運費用負擔來應對。

Okay.

好的。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And you talked a lot the past couple of quarters about just your desire to lower your reliance on kind of non-relationship credits and move towards a more granular loan portfolio.

在過去的幾個季度中，您多次談到您希望降低對非關係信貸的依賴並轉向更細化的貸款組合。

As we think about your shared national credit portfolio that's, I think, about 11% of loans, is there a level to where you think that could move to over time?

當我們考慮您們共享的國家信貸投資組合（我認為大約佔貸款的 11%）時，您認為隨著時間的推移，這一水平是否會達到一個水平？

And I'm just trying to kind of frame the size of a headwind that is to you getting the growth ticket to turn back on once we get to maybe a little more stabilization in the industry.

我只是想描述一下逆風的大小，一旦我們這個行業變得更加穩定，你就會重新開啟成長的大門。

Okay.

好的。

Catherine, this is John.

凱瑟琳，這是約翰。

I'll take that one.

我會接受那個。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Good to hear your voice.

很高興聽到你的聲音。

So in terms of comparative to peers, I mean, as you know, not everybody reports.

因此，就與同行的比較而言，我的意思是，正如你所知，並不是每個人都報告。

So when we look to see how we compare to others, and occasionally we've noted on notes where we're deemed as being a little heavy in that category, which, it’s always bothersome to be considered heavy in anything that may be considered something less than good.

因此，當我們查看自己與其他人的比較時，有時我們會在筆記上註明，我們在該類別中被認為有點重，這總是令人煩惱的，因為在任何可能的事情上被認為是重的。

Our reliance on syndications is never intended to be because we couldn't produce enough otherwise, it was because we had so much excess liquidity during the aftermath of the PPP credits that our desire to get something better than zero with the Fed overnight, we did a little bit more liquidity development because we had a little more liquidity to deploy.

我們對銀團的依賴從來不是因為我們無法生產足夠的產品，而是因為在購買力平價信貸之後我們有太多的過剩流動性，我們希望一夜之間從美聯儲獲得比零更好的東西，我們做到了流動性發展更多一些，因為我們有更多流動性可供部署。

So that's now coming down.

所以現在這個情況正在下降。

And I think over the course of the next couple of years, it should moderate down to something in the neighborhood of what we see as reported peer levels, which is a couple of hundred basis points as expressed as a percentage of loans.

我認為在接下來的幾年裡，它應該會放緩至我們所報告的同行水準附近，即以貸款百分比表示的幾百個基點。

So if you apply dollars to that, it's about 250 million per year for a couple of years, if you put it in that context.

因此，如果你用美元來計算的話，如果你把它放在這樣的背景下，幾年內每年大約是 2.5 億美元。

So that's not a size -- not a size that we're concerned about our production being able to replace.

所以這不是一個尺寸——不是我們擔心我們的產品能夠替代的尺寸。

And we have the ability to moderate that up or moderate that down, just as we participate and renew and look at new relationships if that makes sense.

我們有能力調節這種關係，就像我們參與、更新並審視新的關係（如果這有意義）一樣。

So, not insurmountable, but it's out there as a contra.

所以，這並不是不可克服的，但它是一個反對因素。

But if we can redeploy credit-only money into full relationship money, ultimately we're ahead in overall revenue, if that makes sense.

但如果我們能夠將純信用資金重新部署為全面的關係資金，最終我們將在整體收入方面處於領先地位（如果這是有道理的）。

It does.

確實如此。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Was that specific enough of what you were looking for?

這是否足夠具體地滿足您的需求？

It does, yes.

確實如此，是的。

The 250 million was exactly what I was looking for.

2.5億正是我想要的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Rose, Raymond James.

麥可羅斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hey, good afternoon, everyone.

嘿，大家下午好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Just wanted to follow up on the SNC commentary.

只是想跟進 SNC 的評論。

It looks like it kind of accounted for kind of all this quarter's loan growth.

看起來它在某種程度上佔了本季所有貸款成長的一部分。

I think the balances were about 2.6 billion last quarter.

我認為上個季度的餘額約為 26 億。

And you've talked about or reiterated again kind of acceleration in the back half of the year on loan growth.

您已經談到或再次重申了今年下半年貸款成長的加速。

But I think there's growing signs that the economy is slowing.

但我認為越來越多的跡象顯示經濟正在放緩。

Just what gives you confidence that you will see that acceleration.

是什麼讓你有信心看到這種加速。

Is it something in the pipeline?

是不是正在醞釀？

Is it what you're hearing from your customers?

這是您從客戶那裡聽到的嗎？

And what could be the puts and the takes to that output?

該輸出的賣出和賣出可能是什麼？

And then what should we think or contemplate SNC growth as part of that guidance?

那麼，作為該指導的一部分，我們應該思考或考慮 SNC 的成長呢？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure, Michael.

當然，邁克爾。

And to be clear, the net growth we show quarter-over-quarter, there's a good bit of credit just moving into the category that are not new.

需要明確的是，我們顯示的季度環比淨增長，有大量信貸剛剛進入了不新鮮的類別。

So as you know, it's somewhat of a technical designation.

如您所知，這在某種程度上是一個技術名稱。

So if -- even under a common exposure, if the outstanding balances creep above the line of demarcation where it's considered a SNC or if there's a couple three banks and then they add a bank that pushes over to SNC, then we have to classify as a SNC.

因此，如果 - 即使在共同風險敞口下，如果未償餘額超出了被視為 SNC 的分界線，或者如果有三家銀行，然後他們添加了一家推向 SNC 的銀行，那麼我們必須將其分類為一個SNC。

Does that make sense?

那有意義嗎？

So that's not the vast majority of what you see as an increase is not new money, its simply class change into the SNC category.

因此，這並不是您所看到的絕大多數成長，不是新資金，而是簡單地將類別更改為 SNC 類別。

Does that make sense?

那有意義嗎？

Yep, totally get it.

是的，完全明白了。

So at this point in time, we are in the posture of, on a net basis, quarter-over-quarter, decreasing the large credit-only reliance.

因此，目前，我們處於淨值環比下降的態勢，即減少了對純粹信貸的巨大依賴。

They're not that big, but it's higher than we'd like it to be.

它們沒有那麼大，但比我們希望的要高。

And frankly, we need the liquidity to put in other things that we think are better and more valuable to investors over the course of time.

坦白說，隨著時間的推移，我們需要流動性來投入我們認為對投資者更好、更有價值的其他東西。

Did I answer your question, Michael?

我回答你的問題了嗎，麥可？

Yeah.

是的。

And then just the puts and the takes to kind of the back half acceleration in growth, just given some of the macro headwinds.

然後，考慮到一些宏觀阻力，看跌期權和看跌期權會在後半段加速成長。

Sure.

當然。

Well, if you look at it overall and it's -- when you get into puts and takes, I could talk probably with more detail than you want to hear, but I'll try to summarize it.

好吧，如果你從整體上看，當你進入投入和投入時，我可能會說比你想聽的更多的細節，但我會嘗試總結一下。

At this point in time, there's a number of tailwinds that are helpful.

此時此刻，有許多有利的因素。

And the ones that I'll call out for the first quarter, which we haven't talked about a lot lately is we did enjoy a modest amount of line utilization improvement and you see that on Page 8.

我要在第一季指出的一點是，我們最近沒有經常談論這一點，那就是我們確實享受了生產線利用率的適度改善，您可以在第 8 頁上看到這一點。

I think it's been five quarters since we saw line utilization improve.

我認為自從我們看到生產線利用率改善以來已經過去五個季度了。

And so one data point isn't a trend.

因此，一個數據點並不是一種趨勢。

And I would be early and premature to say that that's a sustainable trend.

我現在說這是一個可持續的趨勢還為時過早。

But we anticipated, way back when that as deposits on average per account begin to moderate back toward pre-pandemic levels, call it 2019 levels, that logically we should see line utilization begin to creep back up a little bit to the good.

但我們早在那時就預計，當每個帳戶的平均存款開始回落到大流行前的水平（稱之為2019 年的水平）時，從邏輯上講，我們應該會看到線路利用率開始略有回升。

And that's pretty much exactly what's happening.

這幾乎正是正在發生的事情。

Whether that continues or not, I wouldn't want that one way or the other.

無論這種情況是否繼續，我都不想這樣。

But we did expect utilization to go up when we normalize deposit account sizes, and that happens to be now.

但我們確實預計，當我們實現存款帳戶規模正常化時，利用率將會上升，而現在正是如此。

And so it wasn't a surprise, but it was welcome.

因此，這並不令人意外，但值得歡迎。

So that's a pretty good tailwind and it really doesn't cost us anything to get that additional income.

因此，這是一輛非常好的順風車，而且我們實際上不需要花任何錢就能獲得額外的收入。

Secondly, given the rate environment, we're seeing paydowns that are unexpected in nature, very, very much minimal.

其次，考慮到利率環境，我們看到的付款實際上是意想不到的，非常非常少。

There are very few operating company divestitures happening, at least in our book of business.

營運公司剝離的情況很少發生，至少在我們的業務範圍內是如此。

And so we don't see much wire in to pay off a loan because the business has been sold, certainly not as much as we saw in 2022 and the first half of '23.

因此，我們沒有看到太多電匯來償還貸款，因為該業務已被出售，當然沒有我們在 2022 年和 23 年上半年看到的那麼多。

So that's been pretty close to zero.

所以這個數字非常接近零。

As we get to the back half of the year, there will be two drivers for increase, and it would be across most of our categories of lending.

到今年下半年，成長將有兩個驅動因素，這將涉及我們的大多數貸款類別。

One would be if the rate environment does finally begin to moderate some to those people who have been on the fence or waiting for a better deal time, I think they'll probably take action.

其中之一是，如果利率環境最終開始對那些持觀望態度或等待更好交易時間的人有所緩和，我認為他們可能會採取行動。

Secondly, even if the rate environment doesn't go down, that I’ll anticipate there's enough pent-up demand to go do things as a business owner that they'll simply say, I really don't want to wait any longer because there may not be a better deal a quarter or two down the road, and we'll go ahead and pull that trigger now.

其次，即使利率環境沒有下降，我也會預期會有足夠的被壓抑的需求去作為企業主去做一些事情，他們會簡單地說，我真的不想再等了因為一兩個季度後可能不會有更好的交易，我們現在就扣下板機。

So I would think it'd be a better environment for growth if rates go down.

因此，我認為如果利率下降，這將是一個更好的成長環境。

But even if they don't go down, I think the more likely question will be, how much are we willing to concede on rate to get the business to grow the balance sheet.

但即使它們不下降，我認為更可能的問題是，我們願意在利率上讓步多少，以使企業擴大資產負債表。

And it's a little early for us to be able to tell that at this point in time.

現在判斷這一點還為時過早。

Right now, we're still focused on getting good rate given that the cost of deposits is what it is today.

目前，考慮到目前的存款成本，我們仍然專注於獲得良好的利率。

Great.

偉大的。

That's great color, John.

這顏色真棒，約翰。

Maybe one for Mike before I step back.

也許在我退後一步之前給麥克準備一份。

Appreciate the color on PPNR ex rate cuts.

欣賞 PPNR 降息的顏色。

Looks like consensus is already within that range, implying that you would do better with rate cuts.

看起來共識已經在這個範圍內，這意味著降息會做得更好。

Is that the way to read it?

這是閱讀的方式嗎？

And any sense of what PPNR could look like, kind of -- well, I guess you said it, down 1% to 2%.

PPNR 可能會是什麼樣子，嗯，我想你已經說過了，下降 1% 到 2%。

Just sort of any just broad strokes on what the puts and takes are to that outlook with no cuts.

只是對這種前景的看跌期權和看跌期權的粗略描述，沒有任何削減。

Because obviously, there'd be other pieces that move, if we don't get any cuts.

因為顯然，如果我們不進行任何削減，還會有其他部分移動。

So, like, would there be some offsets in fee income or things like

那麼，費用收入或諸如此類的事情是否會有一些抵消

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，麥可。

Appreciate the question.

感謝這個問題。

And we did add that disclosure this quarter around what we view PPNR to do with zero rate cuts versus the three that really is embedded in the original guidance.

我們確實在本季度補充了有關我們認為 PPNR 與零降息與原始指導中真正包含的三項降息的關係的披露。

And the difference isn't big, it amounts to about 7 million or so of NII for the last three quarters of the year.

而且差異並不大，今年最後三個季度的NII大約是700萬左右。

So again, it's not a real big difference.

再說一次，這並不是一個真正的大區別。

And most of that difference would be weighted really toward the second half of the year.

其中大部分差異將真正體現在今年下半年。

And to be honest with you, a lot of it really is in the fourth quarter.

老實說，很多都是在第四季發生的。

So the way we think about our NIM going forward, really in the second quarter, I think we expect pretty modest to a handful of basis points expansion.

因此，我們對未來淨利差的看法，實際上是在第二季度，我認為我們預計會出現相當溫和的幾個基點擴張。

And then, if we do get the rate cuts, we have a tailwind that helps us with the CD repricing in the back half of the year.

然後，如果我們確實降息，我們將有一個順風車，幫助我們在今年下半年重新定價 CD。

And so from there, you'll see a little bit in the way of modest NIM expansion.

因此，從這裡開始，您將看到 NIM 適度擴張的情況。

If we don't get the rate cuts, then again, after a handful of basis points in the second quarter, we're likely to be flat through the rest of the year.

如果我們沒有降息，那麼在第二季幾個基點之後，我們可能會在今年剩餘時間內保持穩定。

So that really is what drives that difference in guidance.

所以這確實是造成指導差異的原因。

The other things, though, that are certainly helpful as we kind of go through the year that aren't really impacted by whether there'll be a difference in rate cuts or not, is really the repricing of the bond portfolio as well as the repricing that continues to occur in our fixed rate loan portfolio.

不過，其他事情肯定是有幫助的，因為我們度過了這一年，這些事情並沒有真正受到降息是否會有所不同的影響，實際上是債券投資組合的重新定價以及債券投資組合的重新定價。

So we gave some information about the bond portfolio.

所以我們提供了一些有關債券投資組合的資訊。

We have about 600 million or so of bonds that will reprice from around [290] weighted average to probably right around 5%.

我們大約有 6 億張債券，它們的定價將從加權平均 [290] 左右調整到大約 5% 左右。

Now, if we don't get the rate cuts and the treasury yields increase, then that reinvestment rate will likely be a little bit better.

現在，如果我們不降息並且國債殖利率上升，那麼再投資率可能會好一點。

On the fixed rate loan side, we continue to enjoy the benefits of repricing that portfolio.

在固定利率貸款方面，我們繼續享受對該投資組合重新定價的好處。

So for the balance of the year, we're probably talking about 550 million or so in fixed rate loans that are going to reprice from, call it, 4.75% or so to probably about 7.5%.

因此，對於今年的剩餘時間，我們可能正在討論大約 5.5 億美元左右的固定利率貸款，這些貸款的定價將從 4.75% 左右調整到 7.5% 左右。

So it's pretty important and a pretty good tailwind to have that repricing of both the bond portfolio as well as the fixed rate loan portfolio.

因此，對債券投資組合和固定利率貸款投資組合進行重新定價非常重要，也是一個很好的推動力。

And then the CDs, the benefit there really comes from the potential for rate cuts.

然後是存單，那裡的好處實際上來自降息的潛力。

And again, if those rate cuts don't happen, we'll have that difference that I mentioned.

再說一次，如果降息沒有發生，我們就會出現我提到的差異。

So hopefully, that's helpful.

希望這會有所幫助。

Yeah, very helpful, Mike.

是的，非常有幫助，麥克。

Thanks, guys, for taking my questions.

謝謝你們回答我的問題。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

Casey Haire, Jefferies.

凱西·海爾，杰弗里斯。

Great, thanks.

萬分感謝。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Mike, wanted to follow up on the CD repricing.

麥克想要跟進 CD 重新定價的情況​​。

You guys mentioned that as a major factor on the NIM.

你們提到這是 NIM 的一個主要因素。

I think, last quarter, and you might have said in the prepared remarks, but 900 million comes due this quarter.

我想，上個季度，你可能已經在準備好的發言中說過，但本季將有 9 億美元到期。

I believe it was a [4.77%] rate.

我相信這是一個[4.77%]的比率。

What is the expectation that that rolls over?

滾動的期望是什麼？

We've been hearing that CD repricing -- CD prices have come in a little.

我們聽說 CD 重新定價——CD 價格有所上漲。

Yeah, they've definitely come in.

是的，他們肯定進來了。

And our best promo rate is 5%, four, five months.

我們最好的促銷率為 5%，四五個月。

And so that continues to be, probably our best-selling CDs.

因此，這可能仍然是我們最暢銷的 CD。

We also have a nine month at 4.75% and then 11 months at 4.25%.

我們還有 9 個月的利率為 4.75%，然後 11 個月的利率為 4.25%。

But as far as the CD maturities, those numbers are constantly moving around depending on the reinvestment of the renewal rates going forward.

但就 CD 到期而言，這些數字會根據未來續約利率的再投資而不斷變化。

So what the numbers look like now is for the second quarter, we actually have about 2 billion of CDs maturing.

現在的數字是第二季的情況，我們實際上有大約 20 億張 CD 即將到期。

Those are coming off at 4.88%.

這些利率為 4.88%。

Third quarter, that goes down to about 1.3 billion, coming off at 5.11%.

第三季度，這一數字下降至約 13 億，下降 5.11%。

And in the fourth quarter, about 900 million coming off at about 4.69%.

第四季度，約 9 億的銷量下降約 4.69%。

So the way we're looking at the renewals of those CDs, the second quarter, there'll be some benefit, but it'll be pretty minor for the most part.

因此，我們看待這些 CD 的續訂的方式，第二季將會有一些好處，但在大多數情況下，這將是相當小的。

So for the third and fourth quarter, those benefits do become a little bit more significant, especially in an environment where we do have one or more rate cuts during that time period.

因此，對於第三季度和第四季度，這些好處確實變得更加顯著，特別是在我們在此期間確實進行了一次或多次降息的環境下。

Okay.

好的。

Very good.

非常好。

So in other words, it's still a little bit of a headwind, but obviously diminishing.

換句話說，它仍然有一點逆風，但顯然正在減弱。

And then at some point, it's -- you're pretty much at market levels.

然後在某個時候，你幾乎處於市場水平。

Yeah, I think so.

是的，我想是的。

I think that's right.

我認為這是對的。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

And then just your comments on capital.

然後就是你對資本的評論。

I'm just wondering what is the timing around the back half of the year.

我只是想知道下半年的時間是什麼時候。

Is that -- I mean, your capital ratios are in great shape.

我的意思是，你們的資本比率狀況良好。

You're tracking to your guide.

你正在追蹤你的嚮導。

Just what -- I know it's an election year, but what is so special about the back half of the year to turn on the buyback?

我知道這是一個選舉年，但今年下半年啟動回購有什麼特別之處呢？

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

I don't know that it's necessarily the back half of the year.

我不知道這一定是下半年。

So I think that's something that will be considered as we even go through the next quarter or so.

所以我認為這是我們在下個季度左右的時間才會考慮的事情。

So obviously, on the dividend and any change there, that's a Board decision.

顯然，關於股利和任何變化，這是董事會的決定。

And related to the buybacks, I think it's a pretty good option that we would probably resume buybacks at some level, at some point in the next quarter or so.

與回購相關，我認為這是一個非常好的選擇，我們可能會在下個季度左右的某個時候在某種程度上恢復回購。

So I don't think that's necessarily constrained or going to be delayed to the back half of the year.

因此，我認為這不一定會受到限製或推遲到今年下半年。

And some of those things could start to occur as early as this quarter.

其中一些事情最早可能會在本季開始發生。

All right, great.

好吧，太好了。

Okay.

好的。

And then just last one for me.

然後是我的最後一個。

On the fee guide, still you held that flat.

在費用指南上，您仍然保持不變。

If I run rate the first quarter result here, you're kind of right at the high end of the range.

如果我在這裡對第一季的結果進行評級，那麼您的評級就處於該範圍的高端。

You guys did pretty well in other.

你們在其他方面做得很好。

Just wondering, is that just conservative or do you expect a little bit of a pullback?

只是想知道，這只是保守的還是您預計會有一點回調？

No, I think it's conservative.

不，我認為這是保守的。

So we didn't change the guidance on fees or expenses.

因此，我們沒有改變有關費用或開支的指導。

But I would suggest, especially on fees, that there's probably a bias toward the upper end of that range and even on expenses, a little bit of a bias toward the bottom end of the range without changing the range itself, if that makes sense.

但我建議，特別是在費用方面，可能會偏向該範圍的上限，甚至在費用方面，也可能會偏向該範圍的下端，而不改變範圍本身，如果這有意義的話。

Yes.

是的。

All right, great.

好吧，太好了。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Yeah.

是的。

Casey, this is John.

凱西，這是約翰。

I'll just add one other point that just may be interesting, if not helpful.

我只想添加另一點，即使沒有幫助，也可能很有趣。

And that is, the components of the first quarter fee income included a couple of categories that are the best we've ever had.

也就是說，第一季費用收入的組成部分包括我們有史以來最好的幾個類別。

SBA continues to set records pretty much every quarter.

SBA 幾乎每季都會繼續創造記錄。

And at the pace that that fee income bucket is improving, that pushes some of the guide high.

隨著費用收入的不斷提高，一些指南也被推高了。

And then secondly, our wealth management area now makes up a full third of our fee income.

其次，我們的財富管理領域現在占我們費用收入的三分之一。

I mean, it was probably less than 10% just seven or eight years ago, and now it's almost a third.

我的意思是，七、八年前這個比例可能還不到 10%，而現在幾乎是三分之一。

That includes record sales and annuities this quarter after record sales of annuities last quarter.

這包括繼上季度創紀錄的年金銷售額之後，本季創紀錄的銷售額和年金。

So, you kind of hate to increase the guidance above the top end of the range on record performance after record performance, two quarters in a row, particularly given the interest rate environment could curtail some of that, and you get the benefit on the net interest income side, right?

因此，您有點討厭連續兩個季度將創紀錄業績的指引提高到創紀錄業績範圍的上限之上，特別是考慮到利率環境可能會削減其中的一部分，並且您會從網上獲得收益利息收入方面，對嗎？

So we probably are being a little conservative by leaving the guide alone, but we'd like to see more about what the rate environment looks like before we evaluate changing them.

因此，我們單獨保留該指南可能有點保守，但我們希望在評估改變利率環境之前了解更多有關利率環境的資訊。

Hopefully, that's helpful.

希望有幫助。

Stephen Scouten, Piper Sandler.

史蒂芬·斯考頓，派珀·桑德勒。

Hey, guys, thanks for the time here.

嘿，夥計們，感謝您抽出寶貴時間來到這裡。

I guess I'm curious about the movements in non-interest-bearing deposits.

我想我對無利息存款的變動感到好奇。

You guys talked about the pace of decline there is slowing.

你們談到衰退的速度正在放緩。

I guess I'm curious, how you're thinking about the ultimate level of projected non-interest-bearing deposits as a percentage of deposits today versus maybe previous quarter or prior?

我想我很好奇，您如何看待預期無息存款的最終水平（佔當前存款的百分比）與上一季或之前的百分比？

Yeah, Stephen, this is Mike.

是的，史蒂芬，這是麥克。

I'm happy to chat about that for a minute or two.

我很高興能聊一兩分鐘。

So our DDA remix definitely is slowing.

所以我們的 DDA 混音速度肯定會變慢。

There's no doubt that that's occurring.

毫無疑問，這種情況正在發生。

And support for that I mean, obviously, you can see the numbers.

我的意思是，顯然，你可以看到數字來支持這一點。

But our percentage of deposits at a DDA moved from 37% last quarter to 36% this quarter.

但我們的 DDA 存款比例從上季的 37% 上升到本季的 36%。

But the rate of decline was really less than half of the previous quarter.

但下降幅度確實還不到上季的一半。

So in the fourth quarter, we were down about 600 million.

所以第四季我們減少了大約6億。

This quarter, we were down only about 230 million or so.

本季度，我們僅減少了約 2.3 億左右。

So on a percentage basis, that went from 5% to about 2%.

因此，以百分比計算，該比例從 5% 升至 2% 左右。

So on last quarter's call, we had talked about looking at the end of the year and suggesting that maybe that DDA percentage would be somewhere around 33%.

因此，在上個季度的電話會議上，我們談到了年底的情況，並建議 DDA 百分比可能會在 33% 左右。

Obviously, with the way that the remix is slowing, we would look at that number as being probably something closer to 35% or so as of now.

顯然，隨著混音速度的放緩，我們認為這個數字目前可能接近 35% 左右。

And one additional point that certainly was a significant item, we think is in the month of March, we really saw our first increase in DDA deposits on an average basis in really almost two years.

另外一點，我們認為，在 3 月份，我們確實看到了 DDA 存款在近兩年來平均水平上的首次增長。

So I think that's further evidence that that remix is absolutely slowing and could be turning over at some point.

所以我認為這進一步證明混音絕對正在放緩並且可能在某個時候發生轉變。

Okay, that's really helpful.

好的，這真的很有幫助。

And I guess with that 35%, would that be kind of within the context of assuming three rate cuts?

我想這 35% 是在假設三次降息的情況下嗎？

And do you think that would get maybe marginally worse if we were to get no cuts for whatever reason?

您認為如果我們出於某種原因不削減開支，情況會變得更糟嗎？

I don't know that right now, whether we get three rate cuts or zero rate cuts is going to have a real big impact on that number.

我現在不知道我們是否三次降息或零降息是否會對這個數字產生真正的重大影響。

I think that we see some things in motion again around the slowing of that remix and those numbers beginning to move a little bit in the opposite direction, obviously, in an environment where there are no rate cuts, which is today.

我認為，我們看到一些事情再次發生在混音放緩的過程中，而這些數字開始稍微向相反的方向移動，顯然，在沒有降息的環境下，也就是今天。

Okay.

好的。

And then going back to credit briefly, you guys have talked even in your, like, in your release, you talk about credit metrics normalizing.

然後簡單地回到信用問題上，你們甚至在你們的新聞稿中談到了信用指標的正常化。

But I guess I'm just kind of curious what that looks like for you because you still only had 15 basis points of net charge-offs and some of these numbers are still historically low.

但我想我只是有點好奇這對你來說是什麼樣子，因為你仍然只有 15 個基點的淨沖銷，而且其中一些數字仍然處於歷史低點。

So, what do you feel like that normalization level really looks like for you all?

那麼，你們覺得正常化程度對你們所有人來說到底是什麼樣的呢？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks for the questions.

感謝您的提問。

It's Chris Ziluca.

我是克里斯·齊盧卡。

It really is a good question.

這確實是一個好問題。

I think, I guess what I would say is that because we've been operating at such historically low levels for both us and also really compared to our peer set, that even normalization would probably be just getting towards maybe peer average.

我想，我想我想說的是，因為我們一直在如此歷史低水平上運營，而且與我們的同行相比，即使正常化也可能只是達到同行平均水平。

And I think we have a long way to go before we get there from my perspective.

我認為從我的角度來看，我們還有很長的路要走。

But I think we've been very successful and very lucky in many respects with all of the liquidity that's been pumped into the system to allow us to get to the level that we're at.

但我認為我們在很多方面都非常成功，也非常幸運，所有的流動性都被注入到系統中，使我們能夠達到目前的水平。

And so, it wouldn't surprise me that we would continue to see some level of migration in.

因此，我們將繼續看到一定程度的移民，這並不令我感到驚訝。

Now, reality is that the wildcard is how do peers perform also.

現在，現實是通配符是同行的表現如何。

And so if we're kind of performing in tandem with them, then maybe we don't get to peer average.

因此，如果我們與他們一起表現，那麼也許我們達不到同儕的平均水準。

So it really is just a matter of, we've had such a low level and we continue to try to strive for that, that any sort of movement would probably be considered kind of a normalization.

所以這實際上只是一個問題，我們的水平如此之低，我們繼續努力爭取這一點，任何形式的運動都可能被視為一種正常化。

Stephen, this is John.

史蒂芬，這是約翰。

I'll just add to that.

我就補充一下。

Just internally, the way we look at this is more outrunning the other hunters versus the bear, if you know what I mean.

就內部而言，如果你明白我的意思的話，我們看待這個問題的方式是比其他獵人與熊跑得更快。

So what we consider successful through this cycle is remaining in the top quartile in terms of low levels of criticized and NPL credit.

因此，我們認為在這個週期中成功的就是在低水準的批評和不良貸款方面保持在前四分之一。

And anything below peer median would be a deep surprise and disappointment.

任何低於同行中位數的結果都會令人深感驚訝和失望。

So if you kind of look at it that way, that's sort of the bookends of what our expectations are is somewhere between the first and second quartile.

因此，如果您以這種方式看待它，我們的期望的書擋就位於第一和第二四分位數之間。

But obviously, top quartile is what we deem a success.

但顯然，前四分之一才是我們認為成功的。

Got it.

知道了。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And if I could squeeze in one more maybe, I was just curious what drove, if anything specific, the decline in new loan yields quarter-over-quarter?

如果我可以再擠進去一個，我只是好奇是什麼推動了新貸款收益率逐季下降（如果有具體的話）？

It's kind of been trending up at a fairly ratable pace.

它一直以相當可觀的速度上升。

And looks like this quarter fell down to 7.91% versus 8.15%.

看起來本季下降至 7.91%，而同期為 8.15%。

So I'm wondering if that's like a mix issue, maybe more of these single closed mortgages that you mentioned or what kind of drove that decline?

所以我想知道這是否是一個混合問題，也許更多的是你提到的單一封閉抵押貸款，或者是什麼導致了這種下降？

Great question.

很好的問題。

This is John, I'll take a wing at it.

這是約翰，我會採取行動。

I think the answer is about half mix, just differences in Q1.

我認為答案大約是一半混合，只是第一季的差異。

And Q1 does typically have a little bit different mix than the other quarters of the year.

第一季的組合通常與一年中其他季度略有不同。

And then secondly, and this is, I think, going to be the same with our competitors as well, is right now with a rate environment that the news media is talking every day about, when will rates begin to go down, that's a pretty stark change from a year ago when they were talking about how far will they go up.

其次，我認為，這與我們的競爭對手也是一樣的，現在新聞媒體每天都在談論利率環境，利率什麼時候開始下降，這是一個相當好的結果。會上升多遠時，情況發生了明顯的變化。

So when we're negotiating terms or specifically rate terms with clients, it really is a tailwind to getting better pricing when there's a thought that rates are going to be flat or higher.

因此，當我們與客戶談判條款或具體費率條款時，當我們認為費率將持平或更高時，這確實是獲得更好定價的有利因素。

In this environment, rates are expected to go down.

在這種環境下，預計利率將會下降。

So that's creating a little bit more pushback on rates upon renewal and new deals.

因此，這對續約和新交易的費率造成了更多的阻力。

And frankly, the competition is also just as interested in getting new business they can to at least hold the loan book flat.

坦白說，競爭對手也同樣有興趣獲得新業務，以至少保持貸款簿不變。

And so I think competition is higher.

所以我認為競爭更加激烈。

Awareness of what rate direction is happening in the market is a little higher, and I think both of those are driving that down a little bit.

人們對市場上正在發生的利率方向的認識有所提高，我認為這兩者都在推動這一趨勢的下降。

But our posture right now, to be clear, is we still want to get as good a rate as we can possibly get and we're giving up a little volume in order to get a higher rate.

但需要明確的是，我們現在的態度是，我們仍然希望獲得盡可能好的利率，為了獲得更高的利率，我們放棄了一點交易量。

As we get later in the year, if rates do indeed stay flat, or the belief is that they'll still go down, that I think we may see some rate concession across the banks environment, particularly mid-sized bank environment to show growth.

正如我們在今年稍後得到的那樣，如果利率確實保持不變，或者相信利率仍將下降，我認為我們可能會看到整個銀行環境，特別是中型銀行環境出現一些利率讓步，以顯示增長。

It's hard to really tell at this point in time, but if you go back through history, when people begin to expect a rate cut, it's harder and harder to get new deal rates at the level that you may want.

目前還很難說清楚，但如果你回顧歷史，當人們開始預期降息時，讓新的交易利率達到你可能想要的水平就變得越來越困難。

And I think we saw a little bit of that in Q1.

我認為我們在第一季看到了一些這樣的情況。

But again, about half of it or a little more was mixed.

但同樣，大約一半或更多一點是混合的。

Really helpful color.

真的很有幫助的顏色。

Thanks for the time you all.

感謝大家抽出時間。

You bet.

你打賭。

Thank you for the question.

感謝你的提問。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

班傑林格，花旗銀行。

Hey, good afternoon, everyone.

嘿，大家下午好。

Hi, Ben.

嗨，本。

I was curious, I know you gave a little bit of a tilt in your hand here and guidance on the lower end for expenses.

我很好奇，我知道您在這裡給予了一點傾斜，並對較低的費用提供了指導。

But even if you just take this quarter and annualize it, there's about a 20 million gap.

但即使你只是把這個季度折算成年化，也有大約 2000 萬的缺口。

So it comes up to, like, around

所以它就像，大約

[816 million and then 836 million].

[8.16 億，然後是 8.36 億]。

So I was just kind of curious.

所以我只是有點好奇。

I get the expenses are probably closer to lower end.

我知道費用可能接近低端。

But do you think there'd be a little bit of a ramp from here or where should we see that build?

但是你認為這裡會有一點坡道嗎？

Is it technology?

是技術嗎？

Is it potentially staffing or anything you could do to have it be on the lower end of the range or -- sorry, below the low end of the range?

是否有潛在的人員配備或您可以採取任何措施使其處於範圍的下限，或者-抱歉，低於範圍的下限？

Yeah.

是的。

Ben, this is Mike.

本，這是麥克。

I think the way the trajectory of that will likely work as we kind of go through the year, recall that like many banks, we award raises on April 1st.

我認為，隨著我們度過這一年，這一軌跡可能會發揮作用，請記住，像許多銀行一樣，我們在 4 月 1 日獎勵加薪。

So you will see a pretty healthy increase in expenses quarter-over-quarter related to those raises.

因此，您會看到與這些加薪相關的費用逐季度出現相當健康的成長。

So you'll have a full quarter's impact of that in the second quarter.

因此，您將在第二季度受到整個季度的影響。

And then from there, I would expect to see kind of modest increases as we go into the third and fourth quarter.

然後，從那時起，當我們進入第三和第四季時，我預計會看到適度的成長。

And again, that should put us really at the bottom end of the range of 3% to 4%, and maybe a hair even below that 3%.

再說一次，這應該會讓我們真正處於 3% 到 4% 範圍的底端，甚至可能低於 3%。

So that's how we're kind of thinking about it.

這就是我們的想法。

Ben, this is John.

本，這是約翰。

I'll add just to it.

我就補充一下。

Right now, we're having some really good and impressive success in some areas of the granular deployment balance sheet in loans, particularly in Texas and areas, and particularly Dallas.

目前，我們在貸款的精細部署資產負債表的某些領域取得了一些非常好的和令人印象深刻的成功，特別是在德克薩斯州和其他地區，特別是達拉斯。

And so, there's a bit of a notion that as we get to the back of the year, depending on what the economic environment looks like, we may very well increase our deployment in adding new bankers and a small amount of new facility to continue that momentum, because it simply has been so good.

因此，有一種觀點認為，當我們到今年年底時，根據經濟環境的情況，我們很可能會增加部署，增加新的銀行家和少量新的設施，以繼續這一目標勢頭，因為它實在是太好了。

And so there's a little bit of cushion built in that guidance as we sit down in the event that we do make those investments.

因此，當我們確實進行這些投資時，該指導意見中存在一些緩衝。

And we want to be very transparent about it.

我們希望對此保持高度透明。

Might not happen, given how the economy could change on us, but right now, we feel really, really good about the progress in the range or side of our loan balance sheet.

考慮到經濟對我們的影響，這種情況可能不會發生，但現在，我們對貸款資產負債表範圍或方面的進展感到非常非常滿意。

And we believe, that there's some good talent out there in different places that may need a distribution disruption by the back half of the year that we'd like to avail ourselves of their assistance.

我們相信，不同地方有一些優秀人才可能需要在今年下半年之前進行分銷中斷，我們希望利用他們的幫助。

And, Ben, if we take the route that John just kind of articulated, obviously we'll be transparent and modify the guidance accordingly.

而且，本，如果我們採取約翰剛剛闡明的路線，顯然我們將保持透明並相應地修改指導。

That's not a signal.

那不是一個訊號。

We're going to do it.

我們會這麼做的。

It's a signal that that explains some of the reason for the range.

這是一個訊號，可以解釋該範圍的一些原因。

Got you.

明白你了。

Okay, that makes a lot of sense.

好吧，這很有道理。

If you just kind of look to your crystal ball here, it seems like growth is a little bit back half the year weighted.

如果你看一下你的水晶球，你會發現成長似乎有點落後於半年的加權。

I mean, pricing looks to be pretty healthy.

我的意思是，定價看起來相當健康。

Mix shift on deposits is really kind of the only incremental headwind at this point because the cost of deposits are working pretty flat month-over-month when you gave that cadence for the first quarter.

存款的混合轉變實際上是目前唯一的增量阻力，因為當你在第一季給出這樣的節奏時，存款成本逐月相當持平。

Just kind of curious, when you think about an exit of the year, and I get, you might not answer this directly, but is 3.40% achievable in the margin?

只是有點好奇，當你考慮今年的退出時，我知道，你可能不會直接回答這個問題，但是 3.40% 的利潤率可以實現嗎？

Yeah, that's a great question.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。

And as we kind of think about our NIM, and if you kind of go back to my earlier comments, under the scenario where there's a couple of rate cuts, that's certainly, I think, a possibility.

當我們思考我們的淨利差時，如果你回到我之前的評論，在幾次降息的情況下，我認為這當然是一種可能性。

If the zero rate cut scenario happens, then, the 3.40% NIM might be a little bit of a reach, is the way I would kind of think about that.

如果零利率下調的情況發生，那麼 3.40% 的淨利差可能有點遙不可及，這就是我的想法。

Got you.

明白你了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

I'll step back.

我會退後一步。

Appreciate the time.

珍惜時間。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brandon King, Truist Securities.

布蘭登金 (Brandon King)，Truist 證券公司。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Hi, Brandon.

嗨，布蘭登。

So just a question on the expectation for loan yields.

所以只是關於貸款收益率預期的問題。

The pace of increase slowed in the quarter to around 6 basis points.

本季增幅放緩至 6 個基點左右。

And I was wondering, just giving expectations for fixed-rate loan pricing going forward and the commentary around new loan yields, is that a good sort of run rate to expect maybe in the next couple of quarters and particularly, if kind of rates hold from here?

我想知道，僅給出對未來固定利率貸款定價的預期以及圍繞新貸款收益率的評論，這是否是未來幾個季度預期的良好運行利率，特別是如果利率保持在這裡？

Yeah, Brandon, this is Mike.

是的，布蘭登，這是麥克。

And I do think it is, especially if there aren't any rate cuts from this point forward that we should see some stability on the variable side.

我確實認為，特別是如果從現在開始沒有任何降息，我們應該會看到變數方面有一定的穩定性。

But we should still see, as I mentioned earlier, some yield improvement on the fixed rate side as we continue to have those loans repriced as we go through the year.

但正如我之前提到的，我們仍然應該看到固定利率方面的收益率有所改善，因為我們在這一年中繼續對這些貸款進行重新定價。

Okay.

好的。

And as far as the fixed rate repricing, is that sort of ratable through the year or do you have sort of chunkier repricing impacts in certain quarters?

就固定利率重新定價而言，這種利率是全年都可調整的，還是在某些季度會產生更大的重新定價影響？

Yes.

是的。

Right.

正確的。

The way we're looking at it now, it is pretty pro-rata during -- across the remaining quarters of the year.

從我們現在的角度來看，在今年剩餘的幾個季度中，這一比例是相當大的。

And if you look at the last couple of quarters, it's been amazingly consistent around 12 basis points or so per quarter.

如果你看過去幾個季度，你會發現它驚人地穩定在每季度 12 個基點左右。

It did narrow a little bit in the first quarter to about 9 basis points, but still pretty strong on the size of that portfolio.

第一季確實略有收窄，至 9 個基點左右，但就投資組合規模而言仍相當強勁。

Okay.

好的。

And then I recognize the headwind to CD repricing, but just how are you thinking about the total cost of deposits?

然後我認識到 CD 重新定價的阻力，但您如何考慮存款的總成本？

Looks like you're on pace to potentially hold that stable in the second quarter.

看來您預計在第二季保持穩定。

But if we are in kind of this stable rate environment, do you think you continue to keep that pretty stable in the back half of the year?

但如果我們處於這種穩定的利率環境中，您認為下半年會繼續保持相當穩定嗎？

Yeah, absolutely.

是的，絕對是。

So again, if you look at the first quarter, we came in at 2.01%, but the month of March came in at an even 2%.

所以，如果你看第一季度，我們的成長率為 2.01%，但 3 月的成長率甚至為 2%。

And again, as we think about the second quarter, we're looking at somewhere near that same 2% for the second quarter's total cost of deposits.

再次，當我們考慮第二季時，我們看到第二季的總存款成本接近 2%。

And then from there, it really kind of depends on whether we get rate cuts or not.

然後從那裡開始，這實際上取決於我們是否降息。

So in an environment where we do get rate cuts similar to the impact on the NIM, you'll see that cost of deposits continue to fall in the third and fourth quarter.

因此，在我們確實降息的環境中，類似於對淨利差的影響，你會看到第三季和第四季的存款成本持續下降。

If we don't get rate cuts, then it's going to probably be flattish to maybe down just a bit as we go through the rest of the year.

如果我們不降息，那麼在今年剩下的時間裡，利率可能會持平甚至略有下降。

So again, very similar to kind of the trajectory that we described earlier around the NIM.

同樣，這與我們之前描述的 NIM 的軌跡非常相似。

Okay, very helpful.

好的，非常有幫助。

That answers my questions.

這回答了我的問題。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brett Rabatin, Hovde Group

布雷特‧拉巴汀 (Brett Rabatin)，Hovde 集團

Hey, good afternoon.

嘿，下午好。

Wanted to ask, we've seen a few office towers reprice or change hands at lower levels than where they were last transacted.

想問一下，我們看到一些辦公大樓重新定價或易手的價格低於上次交易的水平。

And on Slide 10, you show that you've got 88% of the portfolio in office with 5 million or less of exposure and that the office buildings tend to be more mid-rise.

在投影片 10 上，您展示了 88% 的投資組合位於辦公室，曝光量為 500 萬或更少，辦公大樓往往是中層建築。

I was curious how much of the office book would be bigger than 20 million or 25 million from a loan count perspective?

我很好奇，從貸款數量的角度來看，辦公簿中有多少會比 2000 萬或 2500 萬大？

Yeah, thanks for the question.

是的，謝謝你的提問。

Brett.

布雷特。

This is Chris Ziluca.

這是克里斯·齊盧卡。

We only have 14 credits that are over 10 million, and none of them are over 25 million in exposure.

我們只有14個超過1000萬的積分，沒有一個超過2500萬的曝光量。

So I think that pretty much answers the question around, are we participating in or doing larger office tower transactions.

所以我認為這幾乎回答了我們是否參與或進行更大規模的辦公大樓交易的問題。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then the other question I wanted to ask was, just one of the pushbacks I get is, if we did have a recession -- it doesn't seem like a lot of folks are thinking maybe no recession now, but if we did have one, that maybe some of the core south economies might underperform relative to the Texas and Florida pieces of your franchise.

然後我想問的另一個問題是，我遇到的阻力之一是，如果我們確實經歷了經濟衰退——似乎很多人現在都認為可能不會出現經濟衰退，但如果我們確實經歷了經濟衰退第一，相對於你的特許經營權中的德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州來說，也許一些核心南方經濟體的表現可能較差。

Any thoughts on what you guys are seeing in the core Louisiana, Mississippi markets?

對於你們在路易斯安那州、密西西比州核心市場看到的情況有什麼想法嗎？

And just how you think that those markets might react if the economy gets softened.

如果經濟疲軟，您認為這些市場可能會如何反應。

Yeah, I'll start.

是的，我要開始了。

And admittedly it's a crystal ball look.

不可否認，這是一個水晶球的外觀。

But typically Mississippi and Louisiana are not high growth markets, which means valuations don't just spike up when they may spike up elsewhere.

但密西西比州和路易斯安那州通常不是高成長市場，這意味著當其他地方的估值可能飆升時，它們的估值不會飆升。

So for -- the handicap there is, they don't grow as quickly as some of our other markets.

因此，存在的障礙是，它們的成長速度不如我們其他一些市場。

On the other side, they typically don't bounce down very harshly in periods of recession.

另一方面，在經濟衰退時期，它們通常不會大幅反彈。

So we can just use the last financial recession as an example.

所以我們可以用上次金融衰退來舉例。

We had very, very little loss in Mississippi, Louisiana, or Alabama during that period of time.

在那段時間裡，我們在密西西比州、路易斯安那州或阿拉巴馬州的損失非常非常小。

And, in fact, were it not for energy, our losses would have been better than peer by good measure.

事實上，如果沒有能源，我們的損失在很大程度上會比同行更好。

So with -- energy certainly very deemphasized in our book, and now I think we're well below 1% of loans in that sector.

因此，在我們的書中，能源肯定被淡化了，現在我認為我們在該領域的貸款比例遠低於 1%。

I would expect those markets to perform very well in a recessive period.

我預期這些市場在經濟衰退時期會表現良好。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then just -- I'm sorry, just one last one back on the SNC question.

然後 - 抱歉，最後一個是關於 SNC 的問題。

It sounds like a lot of that portfolio is actually very customer oriented.

聽起來很多產品組合其實都是以顧客為導向的。

How much of that portfolio would you have a primary deposit relationship or you're one of the leads on the credit?

該投資組合中有多少是您擁有主要存款關係或您是信貸的主要負責人之一？

A goodly portion of it.

其中很大一部分。

The primary purpose of syndications for us is to lay off credit with organizations we've had for a while, that the total amount of hold is just bigger than we want to hold by ourselves.

對我們來說，銀團的主要目的是取消我們已經擁有一段時間的組織的信貸，因為持有的總金額只是大於我們自己想要持有的金額。

We do lead a chunk of syndications, but, I mean, the core book is still pretty granular in terms of what we have that is credit only.

我們確實領導了大量的聯合組織，但是，我的意思是，就我們所擁有的僅信用的內容而言，核心書仍然非常精細。

And I'm going to take out specialties like commercial real estate because there are some credits that are syndications there that typically don't live on the books very long before the project's completed and then go off to the perm market somewhere else.

我將剔除商業房地產等專業項目，因為那裡有一些銀團貸款，通常在項目完成之前不會在賬面上存在很長時間，然後就會流向其他地方的燙髮市場。

But we do have a healthcare group that participates a little more heavily in syndications and those balances and exposure have been declining as we didn't need to deploy the liquidity.

但我們確實有一個醫療保健集團更多地參與聯合組織，而這些餘額和風險敞口一直在下降，因為我們不需要部署流動性。

But I want to be clear, saying our concern about syndications are not as much about fear of credit as it is that the liquidity could be repurposed to other things that we're particularly good at.

但我想澄清的是，我們對銀團的擔憂並不是對信貸的恐懼，而是流動性可能會被重新用於我們特別擅長的其他事情。

Internally, we talk about our corporate strategic objectives or CSOs, and we publicly share those.

在內部，我們討論我們的企業策略目標或 CSO，並公開分享這些目標。

But we don't talk about some of the other types of things that we seek and aspire to get to.

但我們不會談論我們尋求和渴望實現的其他一些事情。

And one of those things is I'd like us, and I think our team is dedicated to being the best bank in the Southeast for privately owned businesses.

其中之一是我喜歡我們，我認為我們的團隊致力於成為東南部最好的私人企業銀行。

And to do that, we need to have liquidity available to very competitively bring those types of organizations on.

為此，我們需要提供流動性，以便讓這些類型的組織具有競爭力。

And we're having that kind of result in some of the bookend markets I spoke about earlier.

我們在我之前談到的一些書擋市場上取得了這樣的結果。

So the rebalancing away from SNCs is not because they're SNCs.

因此，重新平衡遠離 SNC 並不是因為它們是 SNC。

The only rebalancing is we're trying to get away from credit only relationships to more core, because ultimately, we're really good at the fee business, but we can't get the fees if we aren't -- if we don't have a core relationship.

唯一的重新平衡是我們試圖擺脫僅信用關係，轉向更核心的關係，因為最終，我們真的很擅長收費業務，但如果我們不擅長，我們就無法獲得費用 - 如果我們不這樣做沒有核心關係。

And so that's the driver for that change in thoughts moving forward.

這就是思想轉變的驅動力。

Did that help you or do you want to repeat?

這對您有幫助還是您想重複？

Yeah, yeah.

是啊是啊。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Thanks so much, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

Okay.

好的。

You bet.

你打賭。

Matt Olney, Stephens Incorporated.

馬特·奧爾尼，史蒂芬斯公司。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Mike, you went through some of your promotional rates on time deposits earlier on the call, and I appreciate you disclosing that.

麥克，您在電話會議早些時候了解了一些定期存款促銷利率，我感謝您披露這一點。

Can you help us appreciate any changes that you've made to these promotional rates more recently?

您能否幫助我們了解您最近對這些促銷價格所做的任何更改？

Are those rates you gave us from a few months ago, or were those after some recent changes you've made?

這些費率是您幾個月前給我們的，還是您最近做出一些更改後的費率？

No, those are the current rates, Matt.

不，這些是當前的費率，馬特。

And just to give you some context of kind of where we've come from.

只是為了向您提供一些有關我們來自哪裡的背景資訊。

If you go back to the end of last year, our best CD rate was 5.4% for nine months.

如果你回到去年年底，我們的最佳 CD 利率是 9 個月的 5.4%。

So we had actually shortened that in the first quarter to 5% for three months and then recently introduced the 5% at five months.

因此，我們實際上在第一季將其縮短為三個月的 5%，然後最近在五個月內引入了 5%。

So we've kind of obviously, lowered the overall rate and shortened the maturity and then lengthened it a little bit.

因此，我們顯然降低了總體利率並縮短了期限，然後稍微延長了一點。

And those variations are really related to what we're seeing in the market in terms of what customers and consumers kind of prefer.

這些變化確實與我們在市場上看到的客戶和消費者的偏好有關。

But it's obviously, also an effort on our part to try to choreograph these maturities such that they occur in an environment where hopefully rates are a little bit lower.

但顯然，我們也努力精心設計這些期限，以便它們發生在利率希望低一點的環境中。

And even without rate cuts, I mean, we're seeing that contraction in rates overall in the market.

我的意思是，即使沒有降息，我們也會看到市場整體利率的收縮。

So certainly, rate cuts will help in the second half of the year when these maturities occur.

因此，毫無疑問，降息將在下半年這些到期日發生時有所幫助。

But if they don't -- we don't have rate cuts, it's not necessarily the end of the world.

但如果他們不這麼做——我們沒有降息，那不一定是世界末日。

I mean, we'll still benefit somewhat from CD repricing.

我的意思是，我們仍然會從 CD 重新定價中受益。

It's just not at the same level as if we had rate cuts.

這與我們降息的水平不同。

So it sounds like you moved your deposit or your promotional pricing down a little bit, shorten the maturities.

因此，聽起來您將押金或促銷價格降低了一點，縮短了期限。

Would you consider moving down the promotional pricing down again before the Fed were to cut?

您是否會考慮在聯準會降息之前再次降低促銷價格？

Or do you think we -- it's now moved down to a point to where it's comfortable, and we have to see that the Fed start to cut before you would move again?

還是你認為我們——現在已經降到了舒適的程度，我們必須看到聯準會開始降息，然後你才會再次採取行動？

Well, my opinion is there's a little bit of a line of demarcation it seems like at 5% for short CDs.

嗯，我的觀點是，對於短 CD 來說，似乎有 5% 的界線。

But we'll pay close attention as we always do to the market and the things that are going on, both the headwinds and tailwinds.

但我們將一如既往地密切關注市場和正在發生的事情，包括逆風和順風。

Personally, I could certainly see a scenario where we would probably want to breach that 5% at some point.

就我個人而言，我當然可以看到我們可能希望在某個時候突破 5% 的情況。

Matt, this is John.

馬特，這是約翰。

Just to add a little more color that may be helpful.

只是添加一點可能會有所幫助的顏色。

Mike described before that we managed to cover more than 100% of the brokered CD departure in Q1 with client deposits at the rates that we mentioned.

麥克之前描述過，我們成功地以我們提到的利率覆蓋了第一季超過 100% 的經紀 CD 離期客戶存款。

We have another slug, and a final slug of brokerage CDs coming up in May.

我們還有另一批，以及最後一批經紀 CD 將在五月推出。

And so part of maintaining the current posture is to try to eliminate as much of those as we can.

因此，維持當前態勢的一部分就是盡量消除這些問題。

We're not really ready to say that will definitely happen, but that's our desire because getting rid of that takes us to 100% core money, if that makes sense.

我們還沒有真正準備好說這肯定會發生，但這就是我們的願望，因為擺脫它會讓我們獲得 100% 的核心資金，如果這有意義的話。

And so it's a little early to try to get too aggressive on taking them down until we get past Q2.

因此，在我們度過第二季度之前，嘗試過於積極地擊敗他們還為時過早。

Hopefully, that's helpful.

希望有幫助。

Yes, that is helpful.

是的，這很有幫助。

Thanks for clarifying that.

感謝您澄清這一點。

And then I guess, switching gears.

然後我想，轉換齒輪。

Chris, on credit, I think you answered all my questions around the criticized loan bucket, and I think, you know that the charge-offs were mostly from a single credit.

克里斯，關於信貸，我認為你回答了我關於受批評的貸款桶的所有問題，而且我認為，你知道沖銷大部分來自單一信貸。

But I was surprised to see that the recoveries were quite a bit higher in the first quarter.

但令我驚訝的是，第一季的復甦速度要高得多。

I think it was around 14 million.

我認為大約是1400萬。

It had been trending well below that in recent quarters.

最近幾季的趨勢一直遠低於這一水平。

Just any color on the more sizable recovery you got this quarter.

只是任何關於本季更大規模復甦的顏色。

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, we have a certain amount of flow recoveries, but we did have an opportunity this quarter to kind of relook at an existingly previously charged off account and kind of resolve that matter, maybe more permanently.

我的意思是，我們有一定數量的流量恢復，但本季度我們確實有機會重新審視之前扣除的現有帳戶，並解決這個問題，也許是更永久的解決。

And so that helped us to get probably what is going to be somewhat of an abnormal level of recovery, but certainly fortuitous for the quarter.

因此，這幫助我們實現了可能會有些異常的復甦水平，但對於本季來說肯定是偶然的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Matt.

謝謝，馬特。

Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott.

克里斯多福·馬裡納克，珍妮·蒙哥馬利·斯科特。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Chris, I wanted to ask you one more credit question.

克里斯，我想再問你一個信用問題。

When we go back to the quarterly and annual disclosures, you've mentioned a pass watch category.

當我們回到季度和年度揭露時，您提到了通行錶類別。

Would that have gone down at the end of March, which therefore would compensate for the increase in the criticized?

到了三月底，這一數字是否會下降，從而彌補批評人數的增加？

Not necessarily.

不必要。

I mean, we certainly have things that flow through the pass watch category, but some skip over that because of just the credit metrics that drive our risk rating models.

我的意思是，我們當然有透過通行證觀察類別的東西，但有些人會跳過這一點，因為只是驅動我們風險評級模型的信用指標。

So not necessarily all just from that category, although certainly a substantial portion in count wise came from that category.

因此，不一定全部都來自該類別，儘管從數量上看，很大一部分肯定來自該類別。

Okay.

好的。

And does the pass watch strive at all provision levels, or rather the reserve as you go forward?

通行證手錶是否會在所有供應水平上努力，或者更確切地說是在您前進時的儲備？

It has a component to it.

它有一個組件。

I mean, we -- our models don't specifically tie at this juncture to risk ratings, but we factor in migration in a lot of the qualitative component to our reserving methodology.

我的意思是，我們的模型目前並沒有專門與風險評級聯繫起來，但我們在儲備方法的許多定性組成部分中考慮了遷移因素。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then last question for me just goes back to kind of the PPNR guide for this year.

我的最後一個問題又回到了今年的 PPNR 指南。

If we think about the guide for '24, would the future years in '25 and '26 kind of be higher from this year or is there -- do you see a scenario where the PPNR would shrink further the next year?

如果我們考慮 24 年的指南，那麼 25 年和 26 年的未來幾年是否會比今年更高，或者是否存在 PPNR 明年會進一步收縮的情況？

Chris, this is Mike, that's a great question.

克里斯，這是麥克，這是一個很好的問題。

And involves at this point, I think, a lot of crystal ball kind of viewing.

我認為，在這一點上涉及到許多水晶球式的觀看。

But at this point, I don't know that we're ready to really talk about guidance for '25.

但目前，我不知道我們是否準備好真正討論 '25 的指導。

But I would suggest that if we think about '25 and we think about that being a year where potentially we're able to grow the balance sheet more than just below single digits.

但我建議，如果我們考慮 25 年，我們認為這一年我們的資產負債表成長可能會超過個位數。

And that certainly, I think bodes well for our ability to expand PPNR into next year.

當然，我認為這對我們將 PPNR 擴展到明年的能力來說是個好兆頭。

Got you.

明白你了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks for speaking out loud on that, Mike.

感謝您大聲談論這一點，麥克。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Gary Tenner, D.A. Davidson.

坦納，D.A.戴維森。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good afternoon.

午安.

I wanted to ask a follow-up just on the loan growth guide.

我想問有關貸款增長指南的後續情況。

Sounds like the low single-digit holds in your mind with or without rates, even though I think a lot of folks think of a second half inflection for the group overall as being a little more reliant on rate cuts.

聽起來無論有沒有利率，你的腦海中都會浮現出個位數的低水平，儘管我認為很多人認為下半年整個集團的轉折點會更加依賴降息。

Are your lenders kind of hearing pretty clearly from borrowers that, look, we're being patient on rates, but we feel good enough about our business opportunities that we're going to pull the trigger in the back half of the year even if we don't get some moderation in rates.

您的貸方是否從借款人那裡清楚地聽到，我們對利率保持耐心，但我們對我們的商業機會感覺良好，因此我們將在今年下半年扣動扳機，即使我們不要在利率上有所節制。

I think the first part of your -- this is John, the first part of your answer, yes.

我認為你的第一部分——這是約翰，你答案的第一部分，是的。

We're hearing pretty clearly we think the environment may be a little better for us back half of the year.

我們很清楚聽到，我們認為今年下半年的環境可能會好一點。

And some of that is because I think organizations are looking at their debt service and from their perspective, they have more room to spend if they're spending less on debt service.

其中部分原因是我認為組織正在考慮其償債能力，從他們的角度來看，如果他們在償債方面的支出減少，他們就有更多的支出空間。

And so it just invigorates them to maybe tackle a little bit more in terms of re-upping equipment, expanding buildings, and doing things that businesses do to grow their top-line revenue.

因此，這只會激勵他們在重新升級設備、擴建建築以及做企業為增加收入而做的事情方面做更多的事情。

So I think that that's really more the driver.

所以我認為這才是真正的驅動力。

I don't think it's more -- I mean, 75 basis points doesn't light up the world, right?

我不認為這更多——我的意思是，75 個基點並不能照亮世界，對吧？

So it doesn't make all of a sudden math get a lot better.

所以它不會讓數學突然變得更好。

It more signals that we have successfully navigated a safe landing economically and we can kind of think a little bit more positively about the next couple three years, and that spurs people to begin taking a little bit more risk in terms of spreading their wings and investing.

這更表明我們已經成功地在經濟上安全著陸，我們可以對未來三年更加積極地思考，這促使人們開始在擴展翅膀和投資方面承擔更多風險。

So -- but as you know, I mean, at some point in time, you can't just not spend money.

所以——但正如你所知，我的意思是，在某個時間點，你不能不花錢。

So my thought is that by the time we get into the latter parts of this year, if the environment looks, we go from higher for longer to higher for much longer.

所以我的想法是，當我們進入今年下半年時，如果環境看起來，我們會從更高的持續時間上升到更高的持續時間。

It's still going to cause people to go ahead and moving forward with some decisions simply because they need to.

它仍然會促使人們繼續前進並做出一些決定，只是因為他們需要這樣做。

And they've got to manage their operating expenses accordingly to afford that higher level of debt service.

他們必須相應地管理營運費用，以承擔更高水準的債務償還。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I appreciate the thoughts on that.

我很欣賞對此的想法。

And then kind of a quasi related follow up in terms of the PPNR guide with and without rates.

然後是關於 PPNR 指南（有費率和無費率）的準相關跟進。

Is that figure with no rate cuts purely the math on kind of the yield and rate impact of cuts, and no change in mix of the balance sheet in that scenario?

這個沒有降息的數字是否純粹是對降息的收益率和利率影響的數學計算，在這種情況下資產負債表的組合沒有變化？

Gary, this is Mike.

加里，這是麥克。

It's a little bit of both.

兩者都有一點。

It's not just the pure math of what happens and what doesn't happen in terms of our rates and repricing.

這不僅僅是我們的費率和重新定價方面發生和不發生的情況的純粹數學計算。

I mean, we're modifying the mix a bit to account for what we think is going to happen or not happen.

我的意思是，我們正在對組合進行一些修改，以考慮到我們認為會發生或不會發生的情況。

But I would suggest, though, it's not a big, big impact or a big change, certainly in the size of the balance sheet for the second half of the year cuts versus no cuts.

但我認為，這並不是一個巨大的影響或重大變化，尤其是下半年資產負債表削減與不削減的規模。

And that's why we didn't change our guidance both on the loan or deposit side at least not as of yet.

這就是為什麼我們沒有改變貸款或存款方面的指導，至少目前還沒有。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Okay.

好的。

That concludes our question and answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the conference over to John Hairston for closing remarks.

我現在將會議交給約翰·海爾斯頓 (John Hairston) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Krista, for managing the call.

謝謝你，克里斯塔，管理這通通話。

Thanks to everyone for your interest.

感謝大家的關注。

Looks like a good year shaping up, and we're glad to share more with you when we see you on the road.

看起來美好的一年即將到來，當我們在路上見到您時，我們很高興與您分享更多資訊。

We'll see you all very soon.

我們很快就會見到大家。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

And you may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。