Hancock Whitney Corp (HWC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Hancock Whitney Corporation's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

    女士們、先生們,大家好,歡迎參加漢考克惠特尼公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指令)

  • As a reminder, this call may be recorded.

    提醒一下,本次通話可能會被錄音。

  • I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Kathryn Mistich, Investor Relations Manager.

    現在,我想介紹今天會議的主持人、投資者關係經理 Kathryn Mistich。

  • You may begin.

    你可以開始了。

  • Kathryn Mistich - Vice President, Investor Relations Manager

    Kathryn Mistich - Vice President, Investor Relations Manager

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And good afternoon during today's call, we may make forward-looking statements.

    下午好,在今天的電話會議上,我們可能會做出前瞻性的陳述。

  • We would like to remind everyone to carefully review the Safe Harbor language that was published with the earnings release and presentation.

    我們想提醒大家仔細閱讀與收益報告和簡報一起發布的安全港語言。

  • And in the company's most recent 10-K and 10-Q including the risks and uncertainties identified therein.

    並且在公司最新的 10-K 和 10-Q 中包含了其中確定的風險和不確定性。

  • You should keep in mind that any forward-looking statements made by Hancock Whitney speak only as of the date on which they were made.

    您應該記住,漢考克·惠特尼 (Hancock Whitney) 做出的任何前瞻性陳述僅代表陳述做出之日的觀點。

  • As everyone understands the current economic environment is rapidly evolving and changing.

    眾所周知,當前的經濟環境正在迅速演變和變化。

  • Hancock Whitney's ability to accurately project results or predict the effects of future plans or strategies or predict market or economic developments is inherently limited.

    漢考克·惠特尼準確預測結果或預測未來計劃或策略的影響或預測市場或經濟發展的能力本質上是有限的。

  • We believe that the expectations reflected or implied by any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions but are not guarantees of performance or results.

    我們相信,任何前瞻性陳述所反映或暗示的預期均基於合理的假設,但並非對績效或結果的保證。

  • And our actual results and performance could differ materially from those set forth in our forward-looking statements.

    我們的實際結果和表現可能與我們的前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

  • Hancock Whitney undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements.

    漢考克惠特尼 (Hancock Whitney) 不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務,並提醒您不要過度依賴此類前瞻性陳述。

  • Some of the remarks contain NON-GAAP financial measures.

    一些評論包含非公認會計準則財務指標。

  • You can find reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release and financial tables.

    您可以在我們的收益報告和財務表中找到與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳表。

  • The presentation slides included in our 8-K are also posted with the conference call webcast link on the Investor Relations website.

    我們的 8-K 中包含的簡報投影片也與電話會議網路直播連結一起發佈在投資者關係網站上。

  • We will reference some of these slides in today's call participating in today's call are John Hairston, President and CEO; Mike Achary, CFO; and Chris Ziluca, Chief Credit Officer.

    我們將在今天的電話會議中參考其中一些幻燈片,參加今天電話會議的有總裁兼首席執行官約翰·海爾斯頓 (John Hairston); Mike Achary,財務長;以及首席信貸官 Chris Ziluca。

  • I will now turn the call over to John Hairston.

    現在我將電話轉給約翰·海爾斯頓。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Kathryn, and Happy New Year, everyone.

    謝謝你,凱瑟琳,祝大家新年快樂。

  • We thank you all for joining us today for the call.

    我們感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。

  • We are pleased with our fourth quarter results, which reflect another quarter of improving profitability.

    我們對第四季度的業績感到滿意,這反映出我們又一個季度的獲利能力提高。

  • We achieved an ROA of a notable 1.40%.

    我們的資產回報率 (ROA) 達到了顯著的 1.40%。

  • We enjoy continued NIM expansion and ramped the quarter with total risk-based capital of nearly 16%.

    我們的淨利差持續擴大,本季創投總額成長近 16%。

  • The quarter was a strong finish to a strong year of improving profitability, building capital and celebrating our 125th anniversary.

    本季為我們獲利能力提高、資本累積和慶祝 125 週年的強勁一年畫上了圓滿的句號。

  • Last quarter on this call, we shared our expectations for a pivot to growth and smartly deploying capital to create opportunity and value.

    在上個季度的電話會議上,我們分享了我們對轉向成長以及明智地部署資本以創造機會和價值的期望。

  • On that note, we announced this morning our acquisition of Sabal Trust Company based in St. Petersburg, Florida.

    關於這一點,我們今天早上宣布收購位於佛羅裡達州聖彼得堡的 Sabal Trust Company。

  • We are very proud to welcome Sabal's outstanding leadership team and clients to Hancock Whitney.

    我們非常榮幸地歡迎 Sabal 傑出的領導團隊和客戶加入 Hancock Whitney。

  • Following the close, Florida will become our largest wealth management fee stake and the Tampa St. Pete MSA will become our largest individual wealth management fee market.

    收盤後,佛羅裡達州將成為我們最大的財富管理費用份額,坦帕聖彼得堡 MSA 將成為我們最大的個人財富管理費用市場。

  • The transaction matches perfectly our stated strategy to develop greater market share in the higher growth areas around our geographic footprint.

    此次交易完全符合我們既定的策略,即在我們地理覆蓋範圍內的高成長地區擴大市場份額。

  • Further details may be found on slide 7 of the Investor Day.

    更多詳情請參閱投資者日第 7 張投影片。

  • We are also pleased to announce a multiyear organic growth plan, which will include both hiring additional revenue-generating associates throughout 2025, and expanding our footprint in Florida and Texas through opening this year, five additional financial center locations in North Dallas.

    我們也很高興地宣布了一項多年期有機成長計劃,其中包括在 2025 年全年僱用更多創收員工,以及透過今年在北達拉斯開設另外五個金融中心來擴大我們在佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的影響力。

  • We expect to announce additional locations in Florida as we near the completion of the Sabal transaction.

    隨著 Sabal 交易接近完成,我們預計將宣佈在佛羅裡達州開設更多門市。

  • We added 7 new bankers in the fourth quarter, which aligns with our anticipated run rate for 2025 and likely the foreseeable future.

    我們在第四季度增加了 7 位新銀行家,這與我們對 2025 年及可預見的未來的預期運行率相符。

  • As I said earlier, this is a multiyear plan, and we will share more over the next several quarters.

    正如我之前所說,這是一項多年計劃,我們將在接下來的幾季分享更多內容。

  • We updated our guidance to give our latest expectations for 2025.

    我們更新了我們的指引,以給出我們對 ​​2025 年的最新預期。

  • This guidance reflects the organic growth plan, but does not include any impacts from the acquisition of Sabal Trust Company.

    該指引反映了有機成長計劃,但不包括收購 Sabal Trust Company 的任何影響。

  • Just a few more notes from Q4 before turning the call over to Mike.

    在將電話轉給 Mike 之前,我只想再說幾句關於 Q4 的話。

  • Net interest income and NIM increased as we were able to control funding costs and more than offset the impact of lower rates and changes in new loan production mix.

    由於我們能夠控制融資成本並抵消利率下降和新貸款生產組合變化的影響,淨利息收入和淨利差增加。

  • Fee income was modestly off due to lower secondary mortgage volume due entirely to higher rates and a little less specialty income numbers in Q3.

    費用收入略有下降,原因是第三季利率上升導致二級抵押貸款量下降,而專業收入金額略有減少。

  • And finally, we were happy to post a modest reduction in operating expense for the quarter.

    最後,我們很高興地宣布本季的營運費用略有減少。

  • Loans were down $156 million due to higher payoffs on commercial real estate loans, offsetting otherwise strong production.

    由於商業房地產貸款償還增加,抵消了原本強勁的產出,貸款減少了 1.56 億美元。

  • With our organic growth plan, we expect total loans will grow mid-single digits in 2025 tilting toward the second half of the year.

    透過我們的自然成長計劃,我們預計 2025 年貸款總額將以個位數中等速度成長,且成長趨勢將集中在下半年。

  • We remain focused on more granular full relationship loans with the goal of achieving more favorable yields and relationship revenue.

    我們將繼續專注於更細緻的全關係貸款,目標是實現更優惠的收益和關係收入。

  • Deposits were up $510 million despite the maturity of $183 million in broker deposits.

    儘管有 1.83 億美元的經紀人存款到期,但存款仍增加了 5.1 億美元。

  • This quarter, we had a very welcome increase in DDA balances, and our DDA mix is consistent at 36%.

    本季度,我們的 DDA 餘額大幅增加,我們的 DDA 組合穩定在 36%。

  • We experienced normal seasonal increases in interest-bearing transaction and public funds deposit accounts and retail CDs declined due to the reduction of our promotional CD rates.

    我們的計息交易和公共資金存款帳戶出現了正常的季節性成長,而零售存單則因促銷存單利率下調而下降。

  • We expect deposits to grow in low single digits in 2025.

    我們預計 2025 年存款將以個位數低速成長。

  • During the quarter, we continued to return capital to investors by repurchasing 150,000 shares of common stock.

    本季度,我們透過回購 150,000 股普通股繼續向投資者返還資本。

  • Even after returning capital, we had strong growth in all of our regulatory capital metrics due to excellent profitability, ending the quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 14.14%.

    即使在返還資本後,由於出色的獲利能力,我們所有監管資本指標均實現強勁增長,本季末的普通股一級資本比率為 14.14%。

  • TCE declined slightly due to the impact of treasury yields on AOCI, but ended the quarter at a strong 9.47%.

    由於國債殖利率對 AOCI 的影響,TCE 略有下降,但本季結束時仍強勁上漲至 9.47%。

  • We are enthusiastic for the opportunities in the coming year and believe we are very well positioned for a successful 2025.

    我們對來年的機會充滿熱情,並相信我們已為 2025 年的成功做好準備。

  • With that, I'll invite Mike to add additional comments.

    接下來,我將邀請 Mike 發表其他評論。

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Thanks, John, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝,約翰,大家下午好。

  • Fourth quarter's net income was $122 million or $1.40 per share, so up $6 million and $0.07 per share from last quarter.

    第四季淨收入為 1.22 億美元,即每股 1.40 美元,比上一季增加 600 萬美元,每股增加 0.07 美元。

  • PPNR was down slightly less than 1% to $165.2 million.

    PPNR 下降略低於 1%,至 1.652 億美元。

  • Express as a return on average assets that continues to be a peer-leading 1.89%.

    表現為平均資產報酬率持續保持同業領先的1.89%。

  • Our NIM expanded 2 basis points to 3.41% driving modest growth in NII.

    我們的 NIM 擴大了 2 個基點,達到 3.41%,推動了 NII 的溫和成長。

  • And as mentioned, our fee income businesses had an outstanding quarter and year, and expenses were down again this quarter.

    如同前面所提到的,我們的費用收入業務在上個季度和去年表現出色,本季的支出再次下降。

  • So now two consecutive quarters of lower expense levels.

    因此現在連續兩季的支出水準較低。

  • The NIM expansion was driven by lower deposit costs, a higher yield on the bond portfolio and a favorable mix of borrowed funds, partly offset by lower loan yields, as shown on Slide 17 of the investor deck.

    淨利差的擴大是由較低的存款成本、較高的債券投資組合收益率和有利的借入資金組合推動的,但被較低的貸款收益率部分抵消,如投資者演示文稿的第 17 頁所示。

  • Our overall cost of funds was down 21 basis points to 1.73% due to a lower cost of deposits and a better funding mix as we ended the quarter with no home loan borrowings.

    由於存款成本降低和資金組合改善(本季末我們沒有任何房屋貸款借款),我們的總資金成本下降了 21 個基點至 1.73%。

  • Our cost of deposits was down 17 basis points to 1.85%, reflecting CD maturities and renewals at lower rates and a reduction on pricing on interest-bearing transaction accounts.

    我們的存款成本下降了 17 個基點,至 1.85%,反映了存款證到期和續期的利率降低以及有利息交易帳戶定價的降低。

  • We had $3.4 billion of CD maturities that came off at 4.84% and renewed at 4.04%.

    我們有 34 億美元的 CD 到期,到期利率為 4.84%,續約利率為 4.04%。

  • Additionally, as John mentioned, most of our brokered deposits matured during the quarter and were not replaced.

    此外,正如約翰所提到的,我們大部分的經紀存款在本季度到期,並且沒有被替換。

  • And our DDA balances increased this quarter for the first time in almost two years.

    本季我們的 DDA 餘額近兩年來首次增加。

  • CDs will continue to reprice lower throughout 2025, given maturity volumes and three anticipated rate cuts in the second half of 2025.

    考慮到到期量和 2025 年下半年預計的三次降息,CD 的定價將在 2025 年全年繼續走低。

  • Bond yields were up 5 basis points to 2.71% due to our continued reinvestment of cash flows back into the bond portfolio.

    由於我們繼續將現金流量重新投資於債券投資組合,債券殖利率上升 5 個基點至 2.71%。

  • In the fourth quarter, about $200 million of bonds came off the balance sheet at a yield of 3.45% and were reinvested at 4.64%.

    第四季度,約有 2 億美元的債券以 3.45% 的收益率從資產負債表中剝離,並以 4.64% 的收益率進行再投資。

  • Next quarter, we expect about $160 million of cash flows coming off at about 3.09% that should reinvest at around 5%.

    下個季度,我們預計約有 1.6 億美元的現金流將產生約 3.09% 的收益,並將以 5% 左右的比率進行再投資。

  • Our loan yield was down 25 basis points to 6.02%.

    我們的貸款收益率下降25個基點至6.02%。

  • Our yield on fixed rate loans was up 7 basis points as we continue to reprice that book, but the yield on our variable rate loans was down 49 basis points.

    隨著我們繼續重新定價,固定利率貸款的收益率上升了 7 個基點,但浮動利率貸款的收益率下降了 49 個基點。

  • Putting this all together, we believe we can achieve modest NIM expansion and NII growth of between 3.5% and 4.5% in 2025, driven primarily by the impact of mid-single-digit loan growth, lower deposit rates and continued repricing of cash flows from the bond portfolio and fixed rate loan portfolio.

    綜合考慮這些因素,我們相信到 2025 年,我們可以實現 NIM 的適度擴張和 3.5% 至 4.5% 之間的 NII 增長,這主要得益於中等個位數貸款增長、較低的存款利率以及債券組合和固定利率貸款組合的現金流的持續重新定價的影響。

  • Offsetting these drivers will be lower loan yields on variable rate loans.

    抵消這些驅動因素的因素將是浮動利率貸款收益率的下降。

  • We assumed 3 rate cuts in the second half of 2020.

    我們預計2020年下半年將降息三次。

  • We did model the impact of 1 and 0 rate cuts in 2025 with results that were modestly favorable.

    我們確實模擬了 2025 年 1 和 0 利率降息的影響,結果略顯有利。

  • As mentioned, fee income was lower this quarter due to lower specialty income, which was elevated in the prior quarter.

    如上所述,本季費用收入下降是由於專業收入下降,而上一季專業收入增加。

  • We expect noninterest income for 2025 will be up between 3.5% and 4.5% and from 2024 with nothing yet assumed from our acquisition of Sabal Trust Company.

    我們預計 2025 年的非利息收入將成長 3.5% 至 4.5%,而從 2024 年開始,我們收購 Sabal Trust Company 後仍未做出任何假設。

  • Expenses were down 1% this quarter as we continue to focus on controlling costs throughout the company.

    由於我們繼續專注於控制整個公司的成本,本季費用下降了 1%。

  • We expect noninterest expense for 2025 will be up between 4% and 5% from 2024 adjusted noninterest expense level, inclusive of our organic growth plan, but excluding any costs related to the Sabal acquisition.

    我們預計 2025 年的非利息支出將比 2024 年調整後的非利息支出水準上漲 4% 至 5%,其中包括我們的有機成長計劃,但不包括與 Sabal 收購相關的任何成本。

  • Our PPNR guide is to be up between 3% and 4% from 2024s adjusted levels, and our efficiency ratio is expected to fall between 55% and 56% in 2025.

    我們的 PPNR 指導價格將比 2024 年的調整水準上漲 3% 至 4%,而我們的效率比率預計將在 2025 年下降至 55% 至 56% 之間。

  • Our credit quality metrics continue to normalize, with an increase in nonaccrual and criticized commercial loans.

    我們的信用品質指標持續正常化,不計息和受批評的商業貸款增加。

  • Net charge-offs, however, were down this quarter.

    不過,本季淨沖銷金額有所下降。

  • Our loan portfolio is diverse, and we still see no significant weakening in any specific portfolio of sectors or geography.

    我們的貸款組合多種多樣,我們仍然沒有看到任何特定行業或地區組合出現明顯疲軟。

  • We continue to enjoy a solid reserve of 147 basis points, up slightly from the prior quarter.

    我們繼續享有 147 個基點的穩健儲備,比上一季略有上升。

  • We expect modest charge-offs and provision levels for 2025.

    我們預計 2025 年的核銷和撥備水準將保持適度。

  • Lastly, a quick comment on capital.

    最後,對資本做一點評論。

  • Our capital ratios remained remarkably strong even after returning capital through continued share repurchases and the impact of AOCI.

    即使在透過持續股票回購和 AOCI 的影響回報資本後,我們的資本比率仍然保持強勁。

  • Even with the Sabal acquisition and planned organic balance sheet growth, we expect to continue our share repurchases in 2025.

    即使收購了 Sabal 並計劃實現有機資產負債表成長,我們仍預計將在 2025 年繼續回購股票。

  • As always, changes in the growth dynamics of our balance sheet and share valuation could impact that view.

    像往常一樣,我們的資產負債表和股票估值的成長動態變化可能會影響這種觀點。

  • I will now turn the call back to John.

    我現在將電話轉回給約翰。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Mike.

    謝謝,麥克。

  • Let's open the call for questions.

    讓我們開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Michael Rose, Raymond James.

    (操作員指示)邁克爾·羅斯、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Michael Rose - Analyst

    Michael Rose - Analyst

  • Hey.

    嘿。

  • Good afternoon, guys.

    大家下午好。

  • Hope you're enjoying the snow down in New Orleans.

    希望您喜歡新奧爾良的雪景。

  • Maybe, Mike, we could just start with just on what you had mentioned last on the buybacks.

    麥克,也許我們可以從你上次提到的回購開始。

  • Certainly appreciate the CSOs.

    當然感謝民間團體。

  • I think the only thing that's really changed since last January is the ROA range has been tightened to 140 basis points to 150 basis points.

    我認為自去年 1 月以來唯一真正改變的是 ROA 範圍已收窄至 140 個基點至 150 個基點。

  • I know you guys have expressed some -- maybe some displeasure with where you guys trade versus peers.

    我知道你們已經表達了一些——也許對你們與同行相比的交易情況有些不滿。

  • Just trying to get a sense of how aggressive you might be with the buyback given that the earn-back is still relatively attractive here.

    只是想了解一下,鑑於目前的盈利仍然相對有吸引力,你們在回購方面可能會有多積極。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Sure, Michael.

    當然,邁克爾。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • Look, as far as buybacks are concerned, we did step down a little bit in the fourth quarter from the levels that we had been at for both the second and third quarter.

    就回購而言,我們在第四季的回購量確實較第二季和第三季的水準有所下降。

  • And I think that simply just had to do with the fact that the stock had pushed up quite a bit post election.

    我認為這僅與選舉後股價大幅上漲有關。

  • And then we began working in earnest on the Sabal transaction.

    然後我們開始認真致力於 Sabal 交易。

  • And when we get to that point with the potential transaction, we've really put ourselves then blackout.

    當我們到達潛在交易的那個點時,我們真的陷入了停電狀態。

  • So the way we view buybacks going forward is, I think, at the very least, we'll revert back to the same levels that you saw us buy shares in the second and third quarter.

    因此,我們對未來回購的看法是,我認為,至少我們將恢復到第二季和第三季買入股票的水平。

  • So call it, around 300,000 shares per quarter.

    可以這麼說,每季約 30 萬股。

  • And look, there's a lot of things that could change that particular appetite, probably more so for the upside.

    而且,有很多因素可能會改變這種特殊的胃口,可能更多的是朝著好的方向。

  • But that's how we view it right now.

    但這就是我們現在的看法。

  • So hopefully, that was helpful.

    希望這對您有幫助。

  • Michael Rose - Analyst

    Michael Rose - Analyst

  • Very helpful.

    非常有幫助。

  • And then maybe just separately, just on the loan growth outlook, I think that was definitely better than, I think, what I was looking for and where consensus is.

    然後也許只是單獨地,就貸款成長前景而言,我認為這肯定比我所期待的和共識的要好。

  • But just wanted to get a sense for what the drivers are.

    但只是想了解一下驅動因素是什麼。

  • I know, obviously, one of the benefits will be not having the SNC portfolio. pay down now that you're at normalized levels.

    我知道,顯然,其中一個好處就是沒有 SNC 投資組合。既然您已經恢復正常水平,就償還。

  • But if you can just give us some color around what the drivers would be?

    但是您能否為我們介紹一下驅動因素是什麼呢?

  • And how confident are you in the back half of the year pick up?

    您對今年下半年的復甦有多大信心?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Michael, this is John.

    是的,邁克爾,這是約翰。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • I'll start it, and if Mike and Chris want to add any more detail, they're welcome to.

    我先開始,如果 Mike 和 Chris 想補充更多細節,我們歡迎他們來補充。

  • You correctly pointed out that one of the biggest tailwinds to the confidence is the fact that we no longer have to take down $600 million at the back door as we rightsize the SNC concentration down to 10% or below.

    您正確地指出,對信心最大的推動力之一是,當我們將 SNC 濃度調整到 10% 或以下時,我們不再需要從後門拿出 6 億美元。

  • So that's all achieved.

    這樣一切都實現了。

  • So out of the gate, you get the lack of the contract, so to speak, impacted the net growth numbers.

    因此,一開始你就發現缺乏合同,可以說,影響了淨成長數字。

  • Beyond that, it's really all about core conventional growth.

    除此之外,一切都與核心常規成長有關。

  • Our mortgage business will be a bit of a contra as we pivot to secondary fee income.

    當我們轉向二級費用收入時,我們的抵押貸款業務將有點相反。

  • That said, as rates move up for mortgage,

    儘管如此,隨著抵押貸款利率上升,

  • Certainly, we continue to look at the balance sheet needs more than just the fee income piece.

    當然,我們繼續關注資產負債表的需求而不僅僅是費用收入部分。

  • And so if the rates begin to get attractive enough for very high-quality paper, we might consider keeping a little bit more mortgage on the books than the 12% that we did the last quarter.

    因此,如果利率對於優質票據變得足夠有吸引力,我們可能會考慮在帳面上保留比上一季 12% 略高的抵押貸款利率。

  • We sold 88, we kept 12% in dollars.

    我們賣了 88 份,保留了 12% 的美元。

  • Our business banking and small business pipeline continues to be very strong.

    我們的商業銀行和小型企業業務管道持續保持強勁。

  • Sentiment among that sector of clients is extremely high.

    該部分客戶的情緒非常高漲。

  • And it appears that we'll be successful adding firepower through additional business bankers through the course of 2025.

    看來,到 2025 年,我們將能夠透過增加商業銀行家來成功增強實力。

  • We had good success there in Q4.

    我們在第四季度取得了良好的成功。

  • So I think that's a net growth generator for the quarter -- for the year.

    所以我認為,這是本季乃至全年的淨成長動力。

  • After several quarters of going sideways as we just move up the asset class to the next sector, we call commercial banking.

    經過幾季的橫盤整理後,我們將資產類別提升到下一個領域,即商業銀行。

  • So it's less the middle market, but higher than small business.

    因此,它的比例較低,但高於小型企業。

  • That book has been largely sideways for several quarters.

    這本書在過去幾個季度基本上一直處於橫盤狀態。

  • The pipeline has improved.

    管道已改善。

  • Payoffs there have lessened.

    那裡的收益已經減少了。

  • And so our expectation is that, that can also grow as we go through 2025.

    因此,我們預計到 2025 年,這一數字將繼續增長。

  • And in fact, I think we'll see growth there in the first quarter of 25%, which hadn't happened for a couple of years.

    事實上,我認為第一季我們的成長率將達到 25%,這是幾年來從未出現過的。

  • Middle market and corporate banking demand is for decent to good there.

    中端市場和企業銀行業務需求處於良好水準。

  • The primary growth engine there is the lack of the paydowns that we apply to ourselves this year.

    那裡的主要成長動力是今年我們缺乏對自己適用的償還。

  • But even so, in the health care portfolio, in the commercial real estate specialty business, while we've had payoff pressure in CRE, the production level actually was quite strong in Q4, and we expect that to increase as we go through 2025, so the CRE becomes a net growth engine towards the back half of the year.

    但即便如此,在醫療保健投資組合中,在商業房地產專業業務中,雖然我們在商業房地產方面面臨回報壓力,但第四季度的生產水平實際上相當強勁,我們預計到 2025 年這一水平將會增加,因此商業地產將成為下半年的淨增長引擎。

  • And then finally, equipment finance is exhibiting strong growth and less pressure -- the output for paydowns.

    最後,設備融資呈現強勁成長和較小壓力——償還債務的輸出。

  • The only not negative in all of that, Michael, is probably competition peers.

    邁克爾,這一切中唯一不算負面的東西可能就是競爭對手了。

  • So we're not compromising at all in the credit term expectations for any of those growth numbers.

    因此,我們不會在任何成長數字的信貸期限預期上做出任何妥協。

  • But as we get into areas like equipment finance and commercial real estate, there's so many nonbank players to compete with these days that we may see a little pressure on the yields of new business.

    但當我們進入設備融資和商業房地產等領域時,如今有如此多的非銀行參與者參與競爭,我們可能會看到新業務收益率面臨一些壓力。

  • And indeed, we saw that in Q4 in that same environment.

    事實上,我們在第四季的相同環境下也看到了這種情況。

  • So our confidence is actually pretty good.

    所以我們的信心其實是相當好的。

  • I'd say very high to attain this level of growth through the year.

    我想說,今年能夠達到這樣的成長水準是非常高的。

  • Obviously, even though we are we're leaning or tilting towards the back half of the year for net growth.

    顯然,儘管如此,我們還是傾向於或傾向於在今年下半年淨成長。

  • The expectation is that we see some growth in Q1 and in Q2 and I think directionally, that will help us understand the pathway to attaining that mid-single-digit level.

    我們預計第一季和第二季會有所成長,我認為從方向上看,這將有助於我們了解實現中等個位數水準的途徑。

  • If there's more disruption around us, Michael, that may afford opportunities to hire bankers at a faster clip, and that certainly wouldn't hurt either.

    邁克爾,如果我們周圍的混亂更加嚴重,這可能為我們以更快的速度僱用銀行家提供機會,這當然也不會有什麼壞處。

  • Any more clarity?

    還有更清楚的嗎?

  • Michael Rose - Analyst

    Michael Rose - Analyst

  • No.

    不。

  • Certainly appreciate the color.

    確實很欣賞顏色。

  • Maybe just last 1 for me on the Sabal acquisition just quickly.

    也許對我來說,Sabal 收購只是最後一個。

  • Can you give us a sense for maybe what the expense levels are with the efficiency ratio was last year?

    您能否告訴我們去年的費用水準與效率比率如何?

  • I appreciate what the revenues were, but just trying to get a sense for what the net bottom line impact would be as we think about 2025?

    我知道收入是多少,但只是想了解一下到 2025 年,淨底線影響會是什麼?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I appreciate that question, Michael.

    我很感謝這個問題,麥可。

  • But again, as we indicated in the deck itself is we're going to update our guidance to be inclusive of Sabal probably after the first quarter.

    但是,正如我們在簡報中所指出的那樣,我們將在第一季之後更新我們的指導方針,以將 Sabal 納入其中。

  • So if you would mind saving that question until we get to that point.

    因此,如果您介意的話,請將這個問題留到我們討論到那一點為止。

  • By then, we'll certainly, I think, have a little bit more certainty as to the exact closing date.

    到那時,我想我們肯定會對具體的截止日期有更確定的認識。

  • But suffice to say, as we indicated in the release and in the slide, it certainly is accretive day 1 in terms of EPS and exceeds all of our return threshold.

    但可以說,正如我們在發布會和幻燈片中所指出的,就每股收益而言,它在第一天就實現了增值,並且超過了我們所有的回報門檻。

  • So I think when we get around to talking about the results and the returns, it will be something that people will appreciate.

    因此我認為,當我們談論結果和回報時,人們會對此表示讚賞。

  • Michael Rose - Analyst

    Michael Rose - Analyst

  • Perfect.

    完美的。

  • Thanks for taking all my questions.

    感謝您回答我的所有問題。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You bet.

    當然。

  • Thanks, Michael.

    謝謝,麥可。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt Olney, Stephens.

    馬特奧爾尼、史蒂芬斯。

  • Matthew Olney - Analyst

    Matthew Olney - Analyst

  • Hey.

    嘿。

  • Thanks, guys.

    謝謝大家。

  • Good afternoon.

    午安.

  • We'd love to hear more about the Wealth Management segment there at the company and with the Sabal Trust acquisition, just appreciate help us appreciate why is now the time to build out that business?

    我們很想聽到更多關於公司財富管理部門以及 Sabal Trust 收購的消息,請幫助我們理解為什麼現在是拓展這項業務的時候?

  • And then I guess the other part of that is, do you think there's additional opportunities in wealth management with respect to M&A?

    然後我想另一部分問題是,您是否認為在併購方面財富管理還有其他機會?

  • Or is it Sabal deal more of a one-off?

    或者說 Sabal 交易只是一次性事件?

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'll start with that on the core wealth management questions and then Mike can handle the M&A part that you address the detail of the question.

    我將從核心財富管理問題開始,然後 Mike 可以處理併購部分,您可以詳細解答這個問題。

  • First off, we've been in the trust business for 100 years.

    首先,我們從事信託業務已經有一百年了。

  • So it's not a new business to us.

    所以這對我們來說並不是一個新業務。

  • The last 10, we've certainly focused a great deal more on it, that focus isn't recent.

    過去 10 年,我們確實更加關注這個問題,這種關注並不是最近才出現的。

  • Really it's been a pretty -- we've been eager to grow that sector for about a decade.

    這確實是一件非常美好的事情——大約十年以來,我們一直渴望發展這個產業。

  • If you remember back in 2018, we announced the Capital One asset management transaction, which grew by 50% or 60%, our overall wealth book.

    如果你還記得,2018 年,我們宣布了 Capital One 資產管理交易,這使我們的整體財富帳簿增長了 50% 或 60%。

  • We hired a lot of good talent both in that deal and after it.

    我們在那次交易中以及交易之後聘用了很多優秀人才。

  • I think it may have put us a bit more on the map in terms of having scale to go after larger, more profitable clients that actually had ancillary fee opportunities in other business lines that were very accretive to the bottom line.

    我認為,這可能使我們在規模方面更勝一籌,從而能夠追逐更大、更有利可圖的客戶,這些客戶實際上在其他業務線上擁有非常有利於盈利的附加費用機會。

  • Then we did the partnership with Sotera, which exposed us to a lot more investment platforms and advisers across the country.

    然後,我們與 Sotera 建立了合作,讓我們接觸到全國各地更多的投資平台和顧問。

  • So we began to be more notable in terms of being able to compete particularly in the larger opportunities in Texas and Florida.

    因此,我們在競爭方面開始變得更加突出,特別是在德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州的更大機會方面。

  • And then finally, Sabal allows us to cheat about 30 years of work onto the overall book.

    最後,Sabal 讓我們能夠將大約 30 年的工作成果融入整本書中。

  • I mean Sabal built a very fine organization over a little less than three decades.

    我的意思是,薩巴爾在不到三十年的時間內建立了一個非常優秀的組織。

  • I mean it takes hard work to do that.

    我的意思是,要做到這一點需要付出艱苦的努力。

  • So to be able to pick it up at one time. and turn that into our largest wealth management state in Florida, I think that's a pretty good accomplishment.

    這樣就能一次把它拿起來。並將其變成佛羅裡達州最大的財富管理州,我認為這是一項相當不錯的成就。

  • It strategically fits our desire to create wealth management income as at least one-third of our overall fee and so we're there now.

    從策略上來說,它符合我們將財富管理收入佔總費用至少三分之一的願望,所以我們現在就做到了。

  • It's already about one-third of our fee income.

    這已經占到我們費用收入的三分之一了。

  • Sabal will help that number go up a good bit more.

    薩巴爾將幫助這一數字進一步上升。

  • In terms of what our appetite is moving forward organically, we've announced a fairly aggressive growth plan in terms of adding talent.

    就我們的有機發展意願而言,我們已經宣布了一項在增加人才方面的相當積極的成長計劃。

  • Several of those players are intended to be wealth management advisers that will organically hire.

    其中幾家公司計劃成為財富管理顧問,負責內部招募員工。

  • So it's an important part of our organization moving forward. whether it's organic or inorganic.

    所以這是我們組織向前發展的一個重要部分。無論它是有機的還是無機的。

  • So Mike, do you want to handle the inorganic any part of that?

    那麼麥克,你想處理其中的無機部分嗎?

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And just a couple of thoughts, Matt.

    這只是一些想法,馬特。

  • So First off, we couldn't be more pleased with the transaction.

    首先,我們對這筆交易非常滿意。

  • We're thrilled for the addition and eager to get moving with the new addition to our company.

    我們對於公司的新增感到十分興奮,並渴望隨著新成員的加入而繼續前進。

  • But it really does check a lot of boxes for us.

    但它確實幫我們解決了很多問題。

  • So the first one is John really hit on that when he talked about the companion acquisition to what we did with Capital One back in 2018.

    因此,第一個問題是,當約翰談到我們在 2018 年與 Capital One 進行的伴隨收購時,他確實談到了這一點。

  • With the Capital One transaction, we acquired a lot of infrastructure, a lot of expertise laid a really good foundation to grow that business from that point on.

    透過與 Capital One 的交易,我們獲得了大量基礎設施和專業知識,為今後業務的成長奠定了良好的基礎。

  • With Sabal, Sabal is the perfect add-on to that.

    有了 Sabal,Sabal 就是它的完美補充。

  • It is a tremendous acquisition of neighborhood of over 50 revenue producers on the trust side and a great base of our customers.

    這是一項巨大的收購,收購對象包括信託方面超過 50 個收入來源以及龐大的客戶基礎。

  • So it really is, I think, an ideal revenue play on top of what we did with Capital One.

    因此,我認為,這確實是我們與 Capital One 合作之後的一個理想的收入方案。

  • I think it also gives us some strategic growth in an area of the company that we would like to be bigger in.

    我認為這也為我們公司在我們希望擴大的領域帶來了一些策略成長。

  • So in terms of Central Florida, that's one of the areas of our geographic footprint, that we've earmarked for additional growth.

    因此,就中佛羅裡達州而言,這是我們地理覆蓋的區域之一,我們已指定該地區以實現進一步成長。

  • So John mentioned on the opening comments, the potential to add banking locations that will be companions to sales locations.

    因此,約翰在開場白中提到,有可能增加與銷售地點相符的銀行地點。

  • So I think that's another important box to check.

    所以我認為這是另一個需要檢查的重要框架。

  • It's an all-cash deal.

    這是一筆全現金交易。

  • So it checks that box in terms of helping us proactively manage capital.

    因此,它在幫助我們主動管理資本方面符合要求。

  • So we're thrilled with that.

    我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • And it really does put a little bit of an exclamation point on this notion of 2025 being a pivot year for the company to grow both organic growth as well as now inorganic growth.

    這確實為「2025 年是公司實現有機成長和無機成長的關鍵一年」這一概念打上了一點感嘆號。

  • And then finally, it really is a signal that I think the company is open to inorganic growth opportunities, whether it be on the banking side or even the nonbanking side.

    最後,我認為這確實是一個信號,表明該公司對無機成長機會持開放態度,無論是在銀行方面還是非銀行方面。

  • So we're open to all sorts of opportunities.

    所以我們對各種機會都持開放態度。

  • I wouldn't say that strictly nonbank or trust.

    我不會說這嚴格來說是非銀行或信託。

  • Certainly, we're open to depository institutions going forward as well.

    當然,我們也對存款機構持開放態度。

  • Matthew Olney - Analyst

    Matthew Olney - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • I appreciate the commentary on that topic.

    我很欣賞對主題的評論。

  • And then on that organic growth strategy, you gave us the map there on slide 8 as far as the footprint and the planned hires I see several green stars in Texas and planned hires in the states, also mentions of the new financial centers in Dallas just update us on your current footings in Dallas or in Texas and leadership.

    然後關於有機成長策略,您在第 8 張投影片上為我們提供了有關足跡和計劃招聘的地圖,我看到德克薩斯州有幾顆綠星,並且計劃在各州招聘,還提到了達拉斯的新金融中心,請向我們介紹一下您目前在達拉斯或德克薩斯州的基礎和領導地位。

  • And I guess, just remind us what the growth strategy is.

    我想,只要提醒我們成長策略是什麼就行了。

  • Is it going to be more middle market C&I, or will it be something else within the state?

    它會是更多的中階市場 C&I 嗎,還是會是州內的其他市場?

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It's a great question, Matt.

    這是一個很好的問題,馬特。

  • I mentioned adding wealth advisers earlier, our stated goal, and this is a lofty and aspirational goal, but we are moving smartly towards it is to become the best bank in the southern part of the U.S. for privately owned businesses.

    我之前提到增加財富顧問,這是我們既定的目標,這是一個崇高而有抱負的目標,但我們正在明智地朝著這個目標邁進,成為美國南部最適合私人企業的銀行。

  • And we don't feel as if we can attain that goal without a strong wealth management offering.

    我們認為,如果沒有強大的財富管理服務,我們就無法實現這一目標。

  • That way we can bank the business, and we can bank the owners of the business and be prepared to system when they go through succession or liquidity moments.

    這樣,我們就可以為企業提供銀行服務,也可以為企業所有者提供銀行服務,並在他們經歷繼承或流動性時刻做好系統準備。

  • And so as a result, those are really in offensive plays that we've invested a lot of time and money into the past or so.

    因此,這些都是我們過去投入了大量時間和金錢的攻擊性舉措。

  • So when we look at the hires, we didn't really give numbers last quarter because we wanted to come out of the gate this year with the overall organic strategy.

    因此,當我們查看招聘情況時,我們實際上並沒有給出上個季度的數字,因為我們希望今年能夠率先實施整體有機戰略。

  • We hired seven net new bankers in Q4.

    我們在第四季淨聘用了 7 位新銀行家。

  • That was the run rate that we set as a goal.

    這就是我們設定的目標運行率。

  • We actually hit it.

    我們確實成功了。

  • And frankly, it surprised me because fourth quarter is typically the hardest time to add business purpose bankers because of the way the incentive teams are structured, typically, there's a big annual settlement that occurs in Q1 for the prior year.

    坦白說,這讓我感到驚訝,因為第四季度通常是增加商業目的銀行家最困難的時期,這是由於激勵團隊的結構方式所致,通常會在第一季對上一年進行一次大型年度結算。

  • And so it's tough to add people during that time, but we were able to.

    因此,在這段時間內增加人員非常困難,但我們做到了。

  • And I think we did it because the people interviewing with our folks saw a very aligned top line and credit risk appetite match.

    我認為我們這樣做是因為接受我們員工訪談的人看到了非常一致的營收和信用風險偏好。

  • They interview both credit and a lot of business leadership and found that they felt this would be a very comfortable place for them to spend their careers.

    他們採訪了信貸部門和許多商業領導,發現這些領導者都覺得這裡是他們度過職業生涯的一個非常舒適的地方。

  • And so we got those seven in Q4, and I would expect to be on that same run rate through the rest of this year.

    因此,我們在第四季度獲得了這七項成果,我預計今年剩餘時間的運行率將保持相同。

  • So around 35 over the five-quarter period.

    因此,五個季度內約為 35 個。

  • We're not really planning to talk much about today, but unless the macro changes or something else changes, I would expect that run rate potentially to continue into '26.

    我們今天實際上不打算談論太多,但除非宏觀因素發生變化或其他因素變化,否則我預計這種運行率可能會持續到 26 年。

  • It just depends on how the world looks when we get another two or three quarters under our belt.

    這只取決於我們再度過兩個或三個季度後,世界會變成什麼樣子。

  • Those bankers will not be limited to the high-growth markets.

    這些銀行家不會侷限於高成長市場。

  • I mean I appreciate you calling out the points in Texas.

    我的意思是,我很感謝你指出了德克薩斯州的問題。

  • We are busily working towards adding 5 new financial centers, and that's the northern areas of the Dallas MSA, which are complemented to where we have offices and leadership already deployed.

    我們正忙於增加 5 個新的金融中心,這些中心位於達拉斯大都會統計區的北部地區,與我們已經部署了辦事處和領導層的地方相得益彰。

  • So those five are -- they're not open yet, but we're working hard to get them done, and I would be disappointed if we don't physically open the offices before the end of this year.

    所以這五個辦公室還沒有開業,但我們正在努力完成它們,如果我們不能在今年年底之前實際開設辦公室,我會感到失望。

  • Mike mentioned potentially offering new offices in Florida as we get closer to the Sabal close.

    Mike 提到,隨著 Sabal 交易結束的臨近,可能會在佛羅裡達州開設新的辦事處。

  • And let's just say that's second quarter or so, then maybe on this call a quarter from now, we can draw a little bit more detail around at the Florida plans are.

    假設這是第二季度左右,那麼也許在一個季度後的電話會議上,我們可以更詳細地了解佛羅裡達的計劃。

  • I'm talking a lot about Texas and Florida, but I don't want to mislead anyone will take good talent in all of our footprint.

    我談論了很多關於德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州的事情,但我不想誤導任何人,讓我們知道我們會在所有的足跡中吸收優秀人才。

  • And if disruption occurs, a place other than in where we are in Texas and Florida, then certainly, we would be deeply interested in moving teams or individual players that they would prefer to be with us and go through what they may go through elsewhere.

    如果發生混亂,除了德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州以外的地方,我們當然會非常樂意將球隊或個人球員轉移到我們這裡,讓他們願意和我們在一起,經歷他們在其他地方可能遇到的情況。

  • So I think at this point in time, our signal to potential partners or potential colleagues would be to -- don't be bashful about making the phone call and we'll see if we can work it out.

    因此我認為此時此刻,我們向潛在合作夥伴或潛在同事發出的信號是——不要羞於打電話,我們會看看是否能解決問題。

  • Any redirect you want on that, Matt?

    馬特,你想對此有什麼重定向嗎?

  • Matthew Olney - Analyst

    Matthew Olney - Analyst

  • No, that's great.

    不,那太好了。

  • Appreciate the commentary.

    感謝您的評論。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You bet.

    當然。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Catherine Mealor, KBW.

    凱瑟琳·米勒(Catherine Mealor),KBW。

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    大家下午好。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi, Catherine.

    你好,凱瑟琳。

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the increase in your credit size commercial loans.

    我想詢問一下你們商業貸款信用額度增加的情況。

  • Can you just give us any color as to what type of loans are the size, just any commentary about the potential risk in that increase this quarter?

    您能否向我們介紹貸款類型的規模,以及對本季貸款增加的潛在風險有何評論?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Christopher Ziluca - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

    Christopher Ziluca - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

  • Hey, Catherine.

    嘿,凱瑟琳。

  • It's Chris Ziluca.

    他是克里斯·茲盧卡 (Chris Ziluca)。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • First of all, I just want to remind folks that we really do continue to be very proud about our asset quality performance.

    首先,我只想提醒大家,我們確實繼續對我們的資產品質表現感到非常自豪。

  • We started at a low base and we certainly have gone up over the past year.

    我們的起點很低,但在過去的一年裡,我們的水準確實有所提高。

  • But looking back and comparing it to our peers.

    但回過頭來看並與我們的同齡人進行比較。

  • For the most part, our increases are largely in line with peers.

    整體而言,我們的成長與同業大致一致。

  • And obviously, we don't have Q4 data right now, but we suspect that there will be a mixed bag in that regard.

    顯然,我們目前還沒有第四季的數據,但我們懷疑這方面的情況會好壞參半。

  • Over the past quarter, we did see some improvement in some of our customers that were already in the criticized category.

    在過去的一個季度,我們確實看到一些原本處於受到批評的客戶有所改善。

  • So we're seeing some hopeful signs that -- the customers that are already in criticized are stabilizing and resolving their issues.

    因此,我們看到一些充滿希望的跡象——已經受到批評的客戶正在穩定並解決他們的問題。

  • This particular quarter, we saw some customers in our consumer discretionary industries, in our building products and services categories, some modest amount in hotel and in the health care and related sectors.

    本季度,我們在非必需消費品行業、建築產品和服務類別中看到了一些客戶,在酒店、醫療保健和相關行業中也看到了一些客戶。

  • So those were some of the areas that probably gave a little bit away in the criticized migration during the quarter.

    因此,這些是本季受到批評的遷移中可能出現一些問題的一些領域。

  • But looking at the circumstances that really gave rise to us making the decision to downgrade them into those categories. the feeling is that it's really transitory in many respects.

    但回顧一下真正導致我們做出將其降級到這些類別的決定的具體情況。從很多方面來看,這種感覺確實是短暫的。

  • In some situations, it's really a situation that's affecting individual borrower that they just have to work through and others, it's really more of a softening of demand on the revenue side and in other areas, it's really just the higher operating costs and being able to rationalize expenses.

    在某些情況下,這確實是一種影響個人借款人的情況,他們必須努力解決;而在其他情況下,這實際上更多的是收入方面的需求疲軟;而在其他方面,這實際上只是更高的營運成本和能夠合理化支出。

  • So there's a variety of different factors at play.

    所以,有多種不同的因素在起作用。

  • But through the process, we did spend a lot of time looking at all of our lower-rated credits, not even the ones that are in the criticized and lower categories. and really understand exactly what's impacting them and what the possible migration could be in.

    但在這個過程中,我們確實花了很多時間審查所有評級較低的作品,甚至沒有審查那些受到批評和評級較低的作品。並真正理解到底是什麼影響了他們以及可能發生的遷移。

  • And at this point in time, we don't feel that there is anything significant that we've identified.

    而目前,我們並不認為我們已經發現任何重要的事情。

  • Obviously, what happens in the future is hard to know.

    顯然,未來會發生什麼事情還很難知道。

  • But at this point in time, we feel pretty confident in what makes up our criticized book and keeping in mind that we continue to operate at better than peer average in most of our -- in all of our AQ even in the charge-off area.

    但在目前這個時刻,我們對我們所受批評的帳簿的構成非常有信心,並且牢記我們在大部分——甚至是在沖銷領域——所有的 AQ 中繼續表現優於同行平均水平。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Catherine, this is John.

    凱瑟琳,這是約翰。

  • I appreciate the question, and I'll add this.

    我很感謝這個問題,我會補充這一點。

  • And what you are directing towards is, is there, I think, a sizable concentration of any particular sector or geography. -- in those numbers.

    而您要問的是,我認為是否存在某個特定行業或地區的相當大的集中度。 —— 這些數字。

  • And I'd like to maybe direct the answer specifically to that.

    我或許想針對這個問題給出具體的答案。

  • A few years ago, we found ourselves with a larger criticized percentage and it was a significant concentration in one sector and in one geography.

    幾年前,我們發現受到批評的比例較大,並且主要集中在某個行業和某個地區。

  • And this is not a repeat of that.

    這並不是那件事的重複。

  • This is not a return to those days at all.

    這根本就不是回到那個時代。

  • And I would be obviously very disappointed that, we built a very healthy loan loss reserve.

    我顯然會非常失望,因為我們建立了非常健康的貸款損失準備金。

  • We've got a war chest of capital and I would anticipate using that offensively not to cover outsized NCOs.

    我們擁有大量的資金,我預計這些資金將用於進攻,而不是用於支付超大型士官的費用。

  • So I hope that answers your question.

    我希望這能回答你的問題。

  • Glad to answer in more detail when you ask it.

    當您詢問時,我很高興能更詳細地回答。

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • No, it does.

    不,確實如此。

  • And I think a follow-on that, I mean you say in your 25 guidance that you expect modest charge-offs and provision for '25 and so maybe that echo what you're saying, John.

    我認為接下來的問題是,您在 25 年指引中表示,您預計 25 年會有適度的沖銷和撥備,所以也許這與您所說的相呼應,約翰。

  • But can you give us a range or any more disclosure on what you mean by modest?

    但是,您能否給我們一個範圍或進一步披露您所說的“適度”的含義?

  • I mean I feel like in the past, you've talked about modest charge-offs and showed us have offered around 20 basis points or so.

    我的意思是,我覺得在過去,您曾談到適度的沖銷,並向我們提供了大約 20 個基點左右的沖銷金額。

  • Is that a fair assumption for what we should expect for '25?

    這對我們預期 25 年的情況來說是一個合理的假設嗎?

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yes, Catherine.

    是的,凱瑟琳。

  • This is Mike.

    這是麥克。

  • And yes, I think that's right.

    是的,我認為是這樣。

  • So modest doesn't have a specific definition.

    因此謙虛沒有具體的定義。

  • But I think we consider that somewhere in the upper teens to the low 20s in terms of basis points of average loans.

    但我認為,就平均貸款的基點而言,我們認為這一比例在 10% 到 20% 之間。

  • So I think that's a good barometer to use.

    所以我認為這是一個很好的晴雨表。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Catherine, it's hard to take the perfect -- sorry, I stepped on to Catherine, I'm sorry, go ahead.

    凱瑟琳,很難做到完美——對不起,我踩到了凱瑟琳,對不起,請繼續。

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • No, go ahead.

    不,繼續吧。

  • You're good.

    你很厲害。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • I was just going to add, picking the perfect word, sometimes is hard and sometimes we spend more time trying to figure out the perfect word than to give a range because it's hard to do that, too.

    我只是想補充一點,挑選一個完美的詞語有時很難,有時我們花更多的時間來找出完美的詞語而不是給出一個範圍,因為這也很難做到。

  • But when we say modest, you could say modest, you could say moderate, use whatever word you like that basically suggests in line with peers.

    但是當我們說謙虛時,你可以說謙虛,你可以說適度,使用任何你喜歡的詞,基本上表明與同行一致。

  • Inside our NCO losses we actually have very little commercial real estate loss through the last several years, maybe a decade in our NCOs, I mean we really are a C&I bank.

    在我們的 NCO 損失中,過去幾年甚至十年來我們的 NCO 中的商業房地產損失實際上很少,我的意思是我們確實是一家 C&I 銀行。

  • And our CRE portfolio, while it's a smaller portion of our loans than most other mid-cap sized banks, it typically performs from a stellar perspective or a seller level in terms of NCOs.

    而我們的 CRE 投資組合,雖然只占我們貸款的一小部分,與大多數其他中型銀行相比,但從 NCO 的角度來看,它通常表現優異或處於賣方水平。

  • On the C&I side, we will, like any other C&I bank have aberration quarters where we have a really low NCO number because we had a recovery or we had a larger NCO number because we had a charge.

    在投資與信貸方面,我們和其他投資與信貸銀行一樣,會遇到異常季度,在這些季度中,由於進行了回收,我們的 NCO 數量會非常低,或者由於進行了收費,我們的 NCO 數量會較大。

  • But as you look year in and year out, we would anticipate those numbers being relatively in line with peers, and we'd be disappointed if they weren't.

    但年復一年地回顧,我們預計這些數字將與同行相對一致,如果不是,我們會感到失望。

  • Even though we keep a large loan loss reserve in the event that the macro environment changes and just like it has the last several years versus the pandemic.

    儘管如此,我們仍保留了大量的貸款損失準備金,以防宏觀環境發生變化,就像過去幾年應對疫情的情況一樣。

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Very helpful.

    非常有幫助。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay, thank you.

    好的,謝謝。

  • Did you have another question?

    您還有其他問題嗎?

  • Catherine Mealor - Analyst

    Catherine Mealor - Analyst

  • No.

    不。

  • I'm all good.

    我一切都好。

  • I'll step out of the queue then.

    那我就退出隊列了。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thanks, Catherine.

    謝謝,凱瑟琳。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

    花旗銀行的本‧格林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

  • Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst

    Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst

  • Hey.

    嘿。

  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    大家下午好。

  • I know you guys laid out a pretty expansive goal for not only hirings, but adding some financial centers and branches across our footprint.

    我知道你們設定了一個相當廣泛的目標,不僅包括招聘,還包括在我們的範圍內增加一些金融中心和分支機構。

  • I mean I think, John, as you said, roughly 25 bankers on a run rate, is that so, I mean, when you think about deals, you have the horsepower -- theoretically would have the horsepower of organic growth that I think peers have a higher multiple.

    我的意思是,約翰,正如你所說,大約有 25 位銀行家按運行率行事,是這樣嗎,我的意思是,當你考慮交易時,你就有馬力 - 理論上會有有機增長的馬力,我認為同行有更高的倍數。

  • So what would it be if you're really looking at an M&A?

    那麼,如果您真的考慮進行併購,情況會是什麼呢?

  • Is it more so just deposits?

    這僅僅是存款嗎?

  • Or would you could that be supplemental in addition to an improving growth outlook.

    或者您認為這可以作為改善成長前景的補充?

  • I'm just curious why deviate from the organic hiring plan.

    我只是好奇為什麼要偏離有機招募計畫。

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah, Ben, this is Mike.

    是的,本,我是麥克。

  • And I think you hit the nail on the head when you alluded to this being complementary.

    我認為,當您提到這種互補性時,您說到點子上了。

  • We absolutely view the organic growth plan and what we've laid out in our markets to be complementary of anything that we do on the inorganic side.

    我們絕對認為有機成長計劃和我們在市場上所做的一切都是對我們無機方面所做的一切的補充。

  • So obviously, with the transaction we just announced with Sabal, that's a nod toward non-bank M&A that will certainly complement our wealth management line of business.

    因此顯然,我們剛剛宣布與 Sabal 的交易是對非銀行併購的認可,這必將補充我們的財富管理業務線。

  • Any depository M&A, I think, will be an absolute complementary way of growing that would be consistent with the organic growth plan and the new bankers that we're hiring.

    我認為,任何存款併購都將是一種絕對互補的成長方式,它將與有機成長計劃和我們正在聘請的新銀行家保持一致。

  • So nothing is certain in banking going forward.

    因此,銀行業未來的發展沒有什麼是確定的。

  • While I think we are signaling an openness to bank M&A, certainly with a preference towards growth markets like Texas, Florida as well as places like Tennessee, there's certainly no certainty that the right opportunity that fits the criteria that we hold near and dear to our hearts will come to pass.

    雖然我認為我們正在發出對銀行併購持開放態度的信號,當然優先考慮德克薩斯州、佛羅裡達州以及田納西州等增長型市場,但符合我們所珍視的標準的正確機會是否會出現卻不一定。

  • So I think we've got to be able to approach this from a diverse point of view in terms of looking at opportunities to grow organically as well as inorganically.

    因此,我認為我們必須能夠從不同的角度來解決這個問題,尋找有機成長和無機成長的機會。

  • So hopefully, that makes sense.

    所以希望這是有意義的。

  • Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst

    Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst

  • It does.

    是的。

  • I mean, is there -- not to dig too deep into it, and I know banks are sold, not bought.

    我的意思是,不要太深入地挖掘這個問題,我知道銀行是被賣掉的,而不是被買走的。

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst

    Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst

  • But is there like a relative size of balance sheet you're looking to partner with?

    但是,您希望與之合作的資產負債表規模是否相對合適?

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Look, nothing is certain, but I think if we think about size parameters, something along the range of maybe one-third of our current size. would be, we think, opportunity.

    看,沒有什麼是確定的,但我認為,如果我們考慮尺寸參數,範圍大概是我們目前尺寸的三分之一。我們認為,這將是一個機會。

  • But however, having said that, if a smaller opportunity comes up, that fits what we're looking to do, but something certainly we would consider.

    但是,話雖如此,如果出現較小的機會,這符合我們的要求,但我們肯定會考慮。

  • I think the one thing that we probably can say that's off the table would be something along the lines of an MOE.

    我認為,我們或許可以說唯一不可能的事情就是類似 MOE 的事情。

  • Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst

    Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst

  • All right.

    好的。

  • That's helpful color.

    這是很有幫助的顏色。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brett Rabatin, Hovde Group.

    布雷特‧拉巴廷 (Brett Rabatin),霍夫德集團 (Hovde Group)。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • Hey.

    嘿。

  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    大家下午好。

  • Wanted to touch on the expense guidance.

    想要談及費用指導。

  • And obviously, expenses were slightly lower in '24.

    顯然,2024 年的支出略有下降。

  • Can you talk about how much of the growth in '25 would be reversion to -- or the incentive plan getting back to normal as opposed to '24 maybe?

    您能否談談 25 年的增長有多少將恢復正常 - 或者激勵計劃將恢復正常而不是 24 年?

  • Or any thoughts on incentive comp in '24 versus '25, relative to the expense increase?

    或者,相對於費用增加,您對 24 年與 25 年的激勵補償有何看法?

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah, great question, Brett.

    是的,布雷特,這個問題問得很好。

  • And the way that I'll approach that is to just remind you of the guidance that we're giving for '25 for expenses.

    我處理這個問題的方式只是提醒你我們為 25 年的費用提供的指導。

  • So we're looking at this range of between 4% to 5%.

    因此,我們關注的是 4% 到 5% 之間的範圍。

  • So obviously, that's a step-up from, let's call it, basically the flat level that we experienced in '24 versus '23.

    因此顯然,這基本上是從 24 年相對於 23 年所經歷的持平水平上升而來的。

  • If we look at the component of that guidance, that really relates to this notion of an organic growth plan, that's probably around 100 basis points or so.

    如果我們看一下指引的組成部分,它確實與有機成長計畫的概念相關,大概在 100 個基點左右。

  • So if we didn't have the organic growth plan, the expense guidance, I think, would be in the neighborhood of 3% to 4%.

    因此,如果我們沒有有機成長計劃,我認為費用指導會在 3% 到 4% 左右。

  • So I hesitate to put an exact number on the incentive comp piece just because it is something that is earned and certainly could be a lower number if we don't achieve our growth levels, but it certainly could be a higher number if we exceed those growth levels.

    因此,我猶豫是否要對激勵補償給出一個確切的數字,因為它是靠努力掙來的,如果我們沒有實現增長水平,這個數字可能會較低,但如果我們超過了增長水平,這個數字可能會較高。

  • So hopefully, what I've laid out gives you a little context around how we're thinking about the expense levels for next year.

    所以希望我所闡述的內容能讓您稍微了解我們對明年支出水準的看法。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • No, that's helpful.

    不,這很有幫助。

  • And I said a little bit lower, actually, like you said, a little bit higher.

    我說的是低一點,實際上,就像你說的,高一點。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then I wanted just to talk about the betas so far relative to the cycle and the expectations on Slide 19, when you look at the the total deposit betas and then the loan betas.

    然後,我想談談迄今為止相對於週期的貝塔值以及幻燈片 19 上的預期,當您查看總存款貝塔值和貸款貝塔值時。

  • Are you guys seeing anything that's either surprising you on either loans or deposits relative to rates where they are?

    你們是否看到貸款或存款利率相對於當前水準有任何令人驚訝的變化?

  • Or would you describe the market is behaving like it's supposed to relative to the rates?

    或者您會描述市場相對於利率的表現應該是這樣的?

  • It seems like on the first part of the way down, there were people who are maybe trying to move market share -- just any thoughts on beta speed from here on either of those buckets?

    似乎在下降的第一部分,有些人可能試圖轉移市場份額 - 從現在起,您對這兩個桶的測試速度有什麼看法?

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So on slide 19, I think probably the most important part of that little table at the bottom is the guidance that we're giving around our expectations really for the entire cumulative cycle.

    因此,在第 19 張投影片上,我認為底部小表格中最重要的部分可能是我們對整個累積週期的期望給予的指導。

  • So that's really how we think about that.

    這就是我們真正的想法。

  • And quarter by quarter, I think a focus on the specific betas that happened in the quarter. can be a little bit misleading, especially when you have rates that maybe move faster or slower than folks had anticipated.

    我認為,每個季度都要專注於本季發生的具體測試版本。可能會有點誤導,特別是當利率變動速度可能比人們預期的更快或更慢時。

  • But to answer your direct question, no, there's nothing, I think, going on in our markets and our geographic footprint that really is a surprise to us or something that was beyond what we expected.

    但要直接回答你的問題,不,我認為,我們的市場和地理足跡中沒有發生任何令我們感到驚訝或超出我們預期的事情。

  • I think the level of competition is what it is.

    我認為競爭水平就是這樣。

  • It certainly is, I think, I'll call it well behaved.

    我認為它確實是好的,我會稱它為表現良好。

  • And it's certainly something that we find conducive actually to our strategy around what we're trying to do with deposit pricing.

    我們發現這確實有利於我們制定存款定價策略。

  • And that strategy really is centered around repricing our maturing CDs keeping that balance of maturing CDs relatively short.

    這項策略的核心實際上是對到期 CD 進行重新定價,使到期 CD 的餘額保持在相對較短的時間內。

  • So $3.4 billion in the fourth quarter, I mean that's the better part of our entire CD book.

    因此,第四季度的 34 億美元,我的意思是,這佔據了我們整個 CD 帳簿的大部分。

  • And as we look into '25, we see that book potentially turning over maybe twice over the course of the year.

    當我們展望25年時,我們發現這本書在一年內可能會售出兩本。

  • So depending on what happens with rates, that certainly could be a big driver of our continued efforts to reduce our cost of deposits.

    因此,根據利率的變化,這無疑可以成為我們繼續努力降低存款成本的重要驅動力。

  • And I'd certainly be remiss relatively if I also mention our DDA balances.

    如果我還提及我們的 DDA 餘額,那我肯定會相對疏忽。

  • So for the first time in two years, we were actually able to increase those balances, we ended the year at 36%.

    因此,兩年來我們首次真正實現了餘額的增加,年底餘額達到了 36%。

  • And as far as next year is concerned, we see an opportunity to grow that to maybe the 38% level or so.

    就明年而言,我們認為有機會將這一比例增長至 38% 左右。

  • So certainly, when we think about our margin expansion opportunities in '25, balance sheet growth is a big component of that, but continued repricing and continued attention on the deposit book is certainly a big component as well.

    因此,當我們考慮 25 年的利潤率擴大機會時,資產負債表成長是一個重要因素,但持續重新定價和對存款帳簿的持續關注肯定也是一個重要因素。

  • So that was probably a little bit more of an expansive answer than the question you asked, but hopefully, it was helpful.

    因此,這可能比您提出的問題更為廣泛,但希望它是有幫助的。

  • Brett Rabatin - Analyst

    Brett Rabatin - Analyst

  • No, no, that was very helpful.

    不,不,這非常有幫助。

  • I appreciate it.

    我很感激。

  • Thanks so much, Mike.

    非常感謝,麥克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gary Tenner, D.A. Davidson.

    坦納 (Gary Tenner),地方檢察官戴維森。

  • Gary Tenner - Analyst

    Gary Tenner - Analyst

  • Hey.

    嘿。

  • Good afternoon.

    午安.

  • I wanted to ask a bit of a follow-up in terms just of the CD repricing.

    我想問一些關於 CD 重新定價的後續問題。

  • Could you remind us, Mike, what the CD maturities are in the first quarter and with that -- the rate and then expected renewal rate might look like today?

    麥克,你能否提醒我們一下,第一季的 CD 到期日是多少,以及今天的利率和預期續約率可能是多少?

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • I'd be glad to, Gary.

    我很樂意,加里。

  • So for the first quarter, we have about $2.5 billion of CDs maturing.

    因此,第一季度,我們有大約 25 億美元的 CD 到期。

  • Those are coming off at 4.34%, and we think that they will go on at about 3.74% or so.

    目前該比率已降至 4.34%,我們認為將繼續維持在 3.74% 左右。

  • We are stepping down just a little bit, the renewal rate from what it's been the last couple of quarters in the mid-80s to probably something in the mid-70s to upper 70s.

    我們的續約率正在略微下降,從前幾季的 85% 左右下降到 75% 左右。

  • Now for the year as a whole, I had mentioned that we see the CD book potentially turning over twice.

    現在就全年而言,我曾提到,我們看到 CD 銷量有可能翻倍。

  • So we have the better part of $8 billion of CD maturities in 2025.

    因此,2025 年我們將有約 80 億美元的 CD 到期。

  • That book as a whole for the year, will come off at about 3.79%, and we're anticipating putting that back on at about 3.10% or so.

    全年該書的銷量將達到 3.79% 左右,我們預計銷量將回升至 3.10% 左右。

  • And certainly, that is very dependent upon the interest rate environment and what happens or not with the Fed resuming rate cuts at some point next year.

    當然,這在很大程度上取決於利率環境,以及聯準會明年某個時候是否恢復降息。

  • So that's how we're looking at the CD book next year.

    這就是我們對明年 CD 書的看法。

  • Gary Tenner - Analyst

    Gary Tenner - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Thank you for that.

    謝謝你。

  • And then in terms of the bankers, if you think of the 7 in the fourth quarter and the 28 that you're planning on hiring in 2025, could you put that in context of what the production banker numbers were at September 30.

    然後就銀行家而言,如果您想到第四季度的 7 名銀行家和您計劃在 2025 年僱用的 28 名銀行家,您能否將其與 9 月 30 日的生產銀行家數量聯繫起來。

  • In other words, what increase is that relative to your existing production side of the business.

    換句話說,成長是相對於您現有的業務生產方面而言的。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's a good question.

    這是個好問題。

  • I mean, it depends on the type of banker certainly.

    我的意思是,這當然取決於銀行家的類型。

  • Maybe the helpful color is, given the pace of bankers, the time it takes to build a pipeline the time for them to get to an accretive level.

    也許有用的顏色是,考慮到銀行家的速度,建立管道所需的時間以及他們達到增值水平的時間。

  • Generally speaking, you would anticipate the difference that the team makes would be more impactful to 2026 than 2025.

    一般來說,你會預期球隊所做的改變對 2026 年的影響會比對 2025 年更大。

  • So largely, the guidance that Mike shared earlier, is really driven by the team that's already in place.

    因此,在很大程度上,麥克之前分享的指導實際上是由已經到位的團隊推動的。

  • Now if we are fortunate enough to pick up a few commercial real estate bankers that could change because they typically pull through a higher percentage of deals very quickly.

    現在,如果我們夠幸運地找到幾家商業房地產銀行家,情況可能會改變,因為他們通常能夠非常迅速地完成更高比例的交易。

  • They're at 90, 120 days, and they can become accretive.

    它們會在 90 至 120 天內產生增值作用。

  • Normally, it's going to take about 12 months to get accretive about 18 months to reach what Shane Loper, the President of the bank that had a revenue caused the flywheel level, where every day, they're continuing to harvest more business and the expense levels don't really go up.

    通常情況下,需要大約 12 個月的時間才能實現增值,大約 18 個月的時間才能達到銀行總裁 Shane Loper 所說的飛輪水平,即收入導致的飛輪水平,每天他們都在繼續收穫更多的業務,而支出水平實際上並沒有上升。

  • So I think I would suggest that the '26 impact will be bigger, and we can quantify that for you as we get to the '26 guidance, is what's coming from the team that we actually have hired.

    因此,我認為 26 年的影響會更大,而且當我們獲得 26 年指導時,我們可以為您量化這一點,這就是我們實際僱用的團隊所帶來的影響。

  • Is that helpful?

    這樣有幫助嗎?

  • Gary Tenner - Analyst

    Gary Tenner - Analyst

  • It is.

    這是。

  • I guess, maybe I didn't ask it very clearly but, 35 adds would be what percentage increase in bankers for Hancock?

    我想,也許我問的不是很清楚,但是 35 個新增項目對於 Hancock 來說意味著銀行家數量增加了百分之多少?

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Oh, about, let's see.

    哦,大約吧,讓我們看看。

  • In the business banking space, that would be probably about a 15% increase in the total workforce over it.

    在商業銀行領域,勞動力總數可能會增加約 15%。

  • Now I'm adding a '26 plan into that number to give it.

    現在我將 '26 計劃添加到該數字中。

  • So about 15% to 20% more business bankers by the end of '26, about 10% wealth advisors, and about 10% commercial bankers.

    因此,到26年底,商業銀行家的數量將增加約15%至20%,財富顧問的數量將增加約10%,商業銀行家的數量將增加約10%。

  • Gary Tenner - Analyst

    Gary Tenner - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You bet.

    當然。

  • So if you think about it, all rolled together, it's about the size of a decent-sized acquisition without having to issue any shares if they all hit plan.

    所以,如果你仔細想想,如果所有交易都按計劃進行,那麼所有的交易加在一起,大約相當於一次相當規模的收購,而且無需發行任何股票。

  • And typically we have about an 80% success rate from the bankers that we hire.

    通常,我們聘用的銀行家的成功率約為 80%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Scouten, Piper Sandler.

    史蒂芬·斯考頓,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Stephen Scouten - Analyst

    Stephen Scouten - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks.

    是的,謝謝。

  • Good afternoon.

    午安.

  • Just follow up along that discussion around the new hires.

    只需跟進新員工的討論。

  • How much of the mid-single-digit loan growth expectation will be predicated on hitting that pace of new hires?

    中等個位數的貸款成長預期在多大程度上取決於新員工的招募速度?

  • And how much would be more no longer the headwind in the SNC portfolio and other dynamics that might precipitate growth?

    那麼,SNC 投資組合中的逆風和其他可能促進成長的動態會減少多少呢?

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, very modest impact in the guidance that we gave for 2025.

    是的,這對我們給予的 2025 年指導影響非常小。

  • It would be important that we get to that level of hiring and have at least an 80% success rate for the hires to attain the CSO levels at the upper end of the boundaries that we gave by the end of 2026.

    重要的是,我們要達到這樣的招募水平,並且到 2026 年底,招募到 CSO 級別的成功率至少要達到 80%,達到我們給出的上限。

  • Does that -- you follow me?

    這樣——你明白我的意思嗎?

  • Stephen Scouten - Analyst

    Stephen Scouten - Analyst

  • Yeah. so that makes perfect sense.

    是的。所以這很有道理。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So CSOs are two years.

    因此 CSO 的任期為兩年。

  • So we've got them baked into that guidance on the upper end.

    因此,我們已將它們納入上限指導中。

  • The guidance we're giving for this year really has all the negative of the expense carry and very little of the positive because it will take a little while for them to get their books up to target operating model level.

    我們給出的今年的指導確實包含了費用帶來的所有負面因素,而積極因素很少,因為他們需要一段時間才能將帳簿達到目標營運模式水平。

  • Stephen Scouten - Analyst

    Stephen Scouten - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And can you speak to any green shoots on its anecdotal around what you're seeing so far that gives you confidence around this loan growth trend reversal versus what we've seen over the last five quarters?

    您能否就目前看到的情況談談任何積極的跡象,讓您對這一貸款增長趨勢的逆轉有信心,與過去五個季度的情況相比?

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Well, I think we got a question earlier about the headwinds and tailwinds and I mean certainly the absence of a big stick runoff is the single biggest advantage to hitting the growth.

    嗯,我想我們之前已經回答過一個關於逆風和順風的問題,我的意思是,沒有大規模的政策衝擊無疑是實現成長的最大優勢。

  • I mean we -- I mean production this past year was certainly not bad.

    我的意思是我們——我的意思是去年的產量肯定不錯。

  • We just had a bit of a leaky backdoor because we had the takedown in SNCs going on to the team of about $600 million.

    我們只是有一點後門漏洞,因為我們對 SNC 的攻擊導致團隊損失了約 6 億美元。

  • And then we had a fairly sizable amount of commercial real estate transaction payoffs predominantly from nonbank new entrants to that space.

    然後,我們獲得了相當可觀的商業房地產交易收益,主要來自該領域的非銀行新進業者。

  • So I don't think CRE payoffs are going to go away, but I do believe our production levels that we're seeing right now and the scale of the pipeline would point to the ability to overcome that payoff level as we go through this year.

    因此,我認為 CRE 的回報不會消失,但我相信我們現在看到的生產水平和管道規模將表明我們今年能夠克服這一回報水平。

  • So the green shoots, if I had to pick sectors, I would say the green shoots are in commercial real estate.

    因此,如果我必須選擇一個行業,那麼我會說,復甦的芽苗是在商業房地產領域。

  • They're in health care, they're in equipment finance.

    他們從事醫療保健行業,也從事設備融資行業。

  • They are in the commercial banking, which is the below middle market and the way we name our sectors and then a dark green vivid green shoot in small business and business banking.

    他們從事商業銀行業務,即中低端市場,我們這樣命名我們的行業,然後是小型企業和商業銀行業務中的深綠色鮮綠色芽。

  • The only area that's soft that we haven't seen to make -- we're making headway on deposit accounts, but not in loan volume is really end consumer, which is highly sensitive to rates, especially mortgage.

    唯一一個我們沒有看到任何進展的疲軟領域是——我們在存款帳戶方面取得了進展,但貸款量卻沒有,這實際上是最終消費者,他們對利率非常敏感,尤其是抵押貸款。

  • Stephen Scouten - Analyst

    Stephen Scouten - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Extremely helpful.

    極為有幫助。

  • And then I think someone made the comment, maybe it was Michael, that you guys recognize that your stock has been maybe underappreciated over the last few years traded at a discount.

    然後我認為有人發表了這樣的評論,也許是邁克爾,你們認識到你們的股票在過去幾年中可能被低估了,而且以折扣價交易。

  • What do you think the market looks at the Hancock Whitney story?

    您認為市場如何看待漢考克‧惠特尼的故事?

  • What do you think that's maybe underappreciated about the bank or the trajectory of the bank if you were to try to toot your own horn a little bit.

    如果您想稍微吹噓一下自己的話,您認為該銀行哪些方面可能被低估了,或者該銀行的發展軌跡如何。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Stephen, this is John.

    是的,史蒂芬,這是約翰。

  • I promised Mike I would stop whining about the stock price not matching the performance of the company.

    我向麥克保證,我不會再抱怨股價與公司業績不符。

  • So I'll defer him -- I'll defer the question to Mike.

    因此我將推遲他——我將把這個問題推遲給麥克。

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Well, instead of winding about what maybe the market isn't getting, I think the best way maybe to have that discussion is to think about what we've accomplished, let's say, over the last four or five years.

    好吧,我認為,與其糾結於市場可能沒有得到什麼,最好的討論方式可能是思考我們在過去四、五年所取得的成就。

  • So we're fond of reminding folks that back in 2020, we established four pretty important strategic focus points and not to belabor these.

    因此,我們想提醒大家,早在 2020 年,我們就確定了四個非常重要的策略重點,不必太強調這些。

  • But they included derisking the balance sheet and derisking the loan book and building reserves, billing to become more profitable and more profitable banking company, vowing to become a more efficient banking company, and then finally, grow our capital levels.

    但它們包括降低資產負債表的風險和降低貸款帳簿的風險並建立儲備,致力於成為越來越有利可圖的銀行公司,發誓成為更有效率的銀行公司,最後提高我們的資本水平。

  • And then I think by the time we got to last year, we had demonstrated, I think, pretty significant progress and excellence on all four of those fronts.

    然後我認為到去年為止,我們已經在這四個方面取得了相當顯著的進步和卓越成就。

  • And '25 becomes a year, as we've talked about many times, where the pivot is to growing our balance sheet and considering organic balance sheet growth as well as inorganic balance sheet growth.

    正如我們多次談到的,25 年的重點是擴大我們的資產負債表,並考慮有機資產負債表的成長以及無機資產負債表的成長。

  • And then also this notion of proactively managing the capital levels that we've worked so hard to build the last four or five years.

    此外,也有積極管理我們過去四、五年來努力建立的資本水準的想法。

  • And on that front, we've increased the dividend last year. certainly, that's something I think we'll look at again this year.

    在這方面,我們去年增加了股利。當然,我認為我們今年會再次審視這個問題。

  • We've demonstrated our commitment to potentially growing inorganically through the Sable transaction.

    我們已經表明了透過 Sable 交易實現潛在無機成長的決心。

  • We've put together, I think, an ambitious organic growth plan.

    我認為,我們已經制定了一項雄心勃勃的有機成長計劃。

  • And doing all of that at the same time, while maintaining pretty good asset quality numbers.

    在同時完成所有這些工作的同時,也保持了相當良好的資產品質數據。

  • Certainly, there's been some normalization, but they're still extremely good from our perspective. and then producing results in the neighborhood of an ROA of 140 basis points and keeping our efficiency ratio below 55%.

    當然,已經有一些正常化,但從我們的角度來看,它們仍然非常好。然後產生大約140個基點的ROA結果並將我們的效率比率保持在55%以下。

  • So to us, that seems like a pretty good banking company and one that certainly, I think, is worth consideration.

    因此對我們來說,這似乎是一家相當不錯的銀行公司,我認為它絕對值得考慮。

  • John, anything to add that?

    約翰,還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • No.

    不。

  • You did it well.

    你做得很好。

  • Stephen Scouten - Analyst

    Stephen Scouten - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Appreciate that, guys.

    感謝你們。

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott.

    克里斯多福·馬裡納克、珍妮·蒙哥馬利·史考特。

  • Christopher Marinac - Analyst

    Christopher Marinac - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Good evening.

    晚安.

  • I wanted to ask Chris a question about C&I utilization.

    我想問克里斯一個關於 C&I 利用率的問題。

  • I'm just curious if you see either net new C&I lines gaining steam this year as well as the existing line?

    我只是好奇,您是否認為今年新的 C&I 線路和現有線路都將獲得發展?

  • Can that very stable 41%, 42% number break out this year?

    41%、42%這些非常穩定的數字今年能夠突破嗎?

  • Christopher Ziluca - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

    Christopher Ziluca - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

  • Yeah,I'll take a quick run at -- it's Chris Ziluca, and then John can follow up if he has any additional commentary.

    是的,我快速瀏覽一下——這是克里斯·茲盧卡 (Chris Ziluca),然後約翰 (John) 可以跟進,看看他是否有任何其他評論。

  • We spent a lot of time, obviously, talking about our CRE book and our C&I book.

    顯然,我們花了很多時間討論我們的 CRE 書和 C&I 書。

  • And from a C&I perspective, I think that there's maybe a little bit more certainty around how companies feel forward headwinds are at least certainty around where they want to invest and the like.

    從商業和工業角度來看,我認為公司對於未來逆風的感受可能會更加確定,至少對於他們想要投資的地方等有更明確的認識。

  • On the CRE side of things, I think that customers are getting to the point now where they want to continue to develop projects.

    就 CRE 方面而言,我認為客戶現在已經到了想要繼續開發專案的階段。

  • So we have projects that are rolling off, obviously, reaching completion.

    因此,我們的專案顯然正在順利進行,並且即將完工。

  • And then we have new projects that are looking to break ground, and we are certainly part of that decision process on a regular basis with clients.

    然後,我們有一些新的專案正在尋求突破,我們當然會定期與客戶一起參與這個決策過程。

  • So I think a lot of it has to do with just the combination of the higher interest rates that people were maybe a little bit cautious about in 2024, but also probably the uncertainty around how the election process was going to play through.

    因此,我認為這在很大程度上與人們在 2024 年可能對更高的利率持謹慎態度有關,但也可能與選舉過程如何進行的不確定性有關。

  • And whoever got to the finish line, probably didn't matter as much as getting to the finish line and then knowing where they were comfortable investing or not.

    無論誰到達終點線,可能都不重要,重要的是到達終點線後是否知道他們願意在哪裡投資。

  • And so I think that will create a little bit more of an opportunity both in both sectors, C&I and CRE.

    因此我認為這將為商業和工業以及商業房地產這兩個領域創造更多的機會。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Chris, this is John.

    克里斯,這是約翰。

  • I'll add to that.

    我將對此進行補充。

  • I wish that the answer was as simple as the question.

    我希望答案和問題一樣簡單。

  • It's a very straightforward question.

    這是一個非常簡單的問題。

  • But Chris introduced the concept of the CRE impact on line utilization, and it's important to understand the backdrop of that.

    但是克里斯介紹了 CRE 對線路利用率的影響的概念,了解其背景非常重要。

  • Last year, we produced several hundred million dollars worth of new CRE construction projects that -- in terms of commitment that are today carrying virtually utilization rate.

    去年,我們啟動了價值數億美元的新商業房地產建設項目,從承諾量來看,這些項目目前實際上已經實現了利用率。

  • And so that's somewhat artificially stimulates the reported line utilization down because so many projects completed and sold off relative to the projects that were new bookings but haven't yet burned through their equity before they get to ours.

    因此,這在某種程度上人為地刺激了報告的線路利用率下降,因為相對於新預訂但在到達我們的手中之前尚未耗盡其股權的項目,許多項目已經完成並出售。

  • So as we get to 2Q and 3Q that volume that was booked last year will have gotten to the end of their money and start borrowing into their lines.

    因此,當我們進入第二季和第三季時,去年預訂的金額將用完,並開始借入他們的資金。

  • And so that will naturally push the CRE line utilization numbers upward, and therefore, the overall line utilizations for the loan book upward, and that will be a good thing.

    這自然會推高 CRE 信用額度利用率,進而推高貸款帳簿的整體信用額度使用率,這是好事。

  • The second thing to note is that I'm a C&I utilization level, as you pointed out, they've been very stable.

    要注意的第二件事是,我的 C&I 利用率水平,正如您所指出的,它們一直非常穩定。

  • And while we would love to see them go higher because it's essentially all it really cost us as the cost of liquidity for that to happen, it's quite profitable, see line utilization go up.

    雖然我們希望看到它們上漲,因為這基本上是我們為實現這一目標所付出的流動性成本,但它是相當有利可圖的,看到線路利用率上升。

  • It also is somewhat of an endorsement of the quality of the C&I book because the clients have enough liquidity on their own to not call them those lines as steeply as they normally would.

    這在某種程度上也是對 C&I 帳簿品質的認可,因為客戶本身擁有足夠的流動性,因此不會像平常那樣大幅提高這些額度。

  • And so there's some seasonal line utilization in the book on the -- from some -- a few sugarcane operators, some timbering people who seasonally will go up and then pay it down.

    因此,帳簿上有一些季節性的信貸額度利用率——一些甘蔗經營者、一些伐木工人會按季節增加貸款額度,然後再償還。

  • But largely, it's been a very healthy, very stable book that is unfortunately about 700 basis points below utilization compared to pre-pandemic just based on the amount of liquidity we have.

    但總體而言,我們的帳簿非常健康、非常穩定。

  • So it's a good thing and a bad thing at the same time.

    所以這既是好事也是壞事。

  • So part of the support for the loan growth numbers is we would anticipate some of the pull-through to borrowing from the commitments that were issued last year to begin income on the balance sheet in the late second quarter through the back half of the year.

    因此,對貸款成長數字的支持部分是,我們預計部分借款將透過去年發行的承諾在第二季末到下半年開始在資產負債表上產生收入。

  • Was that the detail you were looking for?

    這就是您所尋找的細節嗎?

  • Christopher Marinac - Analyst

    Christopher Marinac - Analyst

  • No, it was great.

    不,非常棒。

  • I appreciate you both saw -- take a stab at that.

    我很感激你們二位看到了——試試看。

  • I guess just one related question.

    我想只有一個相關的問題。

  • I mean, seeing interest rates bounce around week.

    我的意思是看到利率在本週左右反彈。

  • I mean would that new loan rate that we see in the deck every quarter, would that actually maybe stabilize if demand is getting stronger and the treasury markets backed up just a little bit this month?

    我的意思是,如果需求越來越強,而國債市場本月略有回升,那麼我們每季看到的新貸款利率是否真的會穩定下來?

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You mean on the new money rights?

    你是指新的貨幣權利嗎?

  • Christopher Marinac - Analyst

    Christopher Marinac - Analyst

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You want a stab at with that?

    你想嘗試嗎?

  • Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

    Michael Achary - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President, Principal Accounting Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • I think it would, Chris.

    我認為會的,克里斯。

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • Christopher Marinac - Analyst

    Christopher Marinac - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Very well.

    非常好。

  • Thanks for the additional color and we appreciate you guys on the call.

    感謝您提供的額外信息,我們也很感謝你們在電話中為我們帶來的幫助。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You bet.

    當然。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes our Q&A session.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。

  • I will now turn the conference back over to John Hairston for closing remarks.

    現在我將會議交還給約翰·海爾斯頓,請他致最後總結。

  • John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    John Hairston - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, JL, for moderating the call.

    感謝 JL 主持本次電話會議。

  • And I guess the only party statement I would have after a long call with good questions is, this is -- we've announced deals before and we've announced great earnings quarters before, but we've never announced a deal, great earnings in the middle of a snowbound wind blowing sideways out of our window in New Orleans.

    我想,在經過一個充滿好問題的長時間電話會議後,我唯一想說的派對聲明是——我們以前宣布過交易,也宣布過季度的出色收益,但我們從來沒有在新奧爾良大雪封山、寒風凜冽的天氣裡宣布過一筆交易或出色的收益。

  • So it's certainly been an interesting day.

    所以這確實是有趣的一天。

  • Thank you, all, for hanging in the call and we look forward to seeing you on the road over the next several months.

    感謝大家堅持參加電話會議,我們期待在接下來的幾個月與您見面。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連線。