Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc (HRTG) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Heritage Insurance Holdings first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Please note, today's event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Heritage Insurance Holdings 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的活動將被錄音。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the conference over to Kirk Lusk, Chief Financial Officer for the company. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想把會議交給本公司財務長 Kirk Lusk。先生，請開始。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We invite you to visit the Investors section of our website, investors.heritagepci.com, where the earnings release and our earnings call will be archived. These materials are available for replay or review at your convenience. Today's call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based upon management's current expectations and subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances.

早安，感謝各位今天加入我們。我們邀請您造訪我們網站 investors.heritagepci.com 的「投資人」專區，屆時將保存財報新聞稿與本次財報電話會議的存檔。這些資料可供您在方便時重播或查閱。今天的電話會議可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述係基於管理層目前的預期，並可能因不確定性及情勢變化而有所變動。

In our earnings press release and our SEC filings, we detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statements we may make. For a description of the forward-looking statements and the risks that could cause our results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K, earnings release and other SEC filings. Our comments today will also include non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliations of and other information regarding these measures can be found in our press release.

在我們的財報新聞稿與向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件中，我們詳述了可能導致未來結果與預期不同的重大風險。我們的陳述以今日為準，對於任何我們可能作出的前瞻性陳述，我們沒有義務加以更新。如需了解前瞻性陳述的說明，以及可能導致我們的結果與前瞻性陳述所述內容出現重大差異的風險，請參閱我們的 Form 10-K 年報、財報新聞稿及其他 SEC 申報文件。我們今天的評論也將包含非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些指標的調節表及其他相關資訊可在我們的新聞稿中找到。

With me on the call today is Ernie Garateix, our Chief Executive Officer. I will now turn the call over to Ernie.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的還有我們的執行長 Ernie Garateix。現在我把電話會議交給 Ernie。

Thank you, Kirk, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by putting this quarter in the proper context because it's the direct result of the strategy we've been executing for several years now. When I became the CEO, our focus was very clear. We needed to achieve rate adequacy, tight underwriting, reduce volatility and protect the balance sheet. What you're seeing today is the result of that work and the beginning of the next phase of our strategy, which is opening for new business to prudently grow and further diversify our business while maintaining acceptable margins.

謝謝你，Kirk，各位早安。我想先把本季放在適當的脈絡中，因為這是我們過去幾年持續執行策略的直接成果。當我成為執行長時，我們的重點非常明確。我們需要達成費率充足性、嚴謹核保、降低波動並保護資產負債表。各位今天看到的就是這些工作的成果，也代表我們策略下一階段的開始：在維持可接受利潤率的同時，審慎開放承作新業務，以推動成長並進一步分散我們的業務組合。

Our first quarter was strong and in line with our expectations. We earned $36.5 million or $1.19 per share, making this the most profitable first quarter that the company has delivered since becoming public in 2014. We also reported the lowest first quarter net loss ratio since 2015. These results reflect steady underwriting execution, the full impact of our prior rate action and disciplined expense management. The improvement in the net loss ratio was driven by favorable attritional loss performance, lower weather-related losses, higher favorable loss development and the continued positive impacts of the underwriting and pricing actions we have taken over the past several years.

我們第一季表現強勁，且符合預期。我們獲利 3,650 萬美元，或每股 1.19 美元，這是公司自 2014 年上市以來最獲利的第一季。我們也創下自 2015 年以來最低的第一季淨損失率。這些結果反映了穩健的核保執行、先前調整費率措施的全面效益，以及嚴謹的費用管理。淨損失率的改善主要來自有利的常態性（attritional）損失表現、較低的天候相關損失、更高的有利損失發展（loss development），以及我們過去幾年採取的核保與定價措施所帶來的持續正面影響。

Retention is strong and rate adequacy is firmly in place throughout our book of business. Our personal residential in-force premium grew 1.4% over the prior year quarter, while our commercial residential in-force premium declined 7.8% as we continue to see competitive pricing pressure in the Florida commercial market. Heritage has been in the commercial residential market for over 10 years and has built a well-performing portfolio managed by a deep bench of experienced underwriters and claim adjusters for that product. However, we will not waver from our commitment to achieve adequate margins. To the extent competitors offer commercial residential products, which are inadequately priced, we will not follow suit.

續保表現強勁，且我們整體業務組合的費率充足性已穩固到位。我們個人住宅（personal residential）在保保費較去年同期成長 1.4%，而商業住宅（commercial residential）在保保費則下滑 7.8%，因為我們持續看到佛羅里達商業市場的競爭性定價壓力。Heritage 在商業住宅市場深耕超過 10 年，並為該產品建立了表現良好的投資組合，由經驗豐富的核保人員與理賠人員團隊管理。然而，我們不會動搖達成足夠利潤率的承諾。若競爭對手提供定價不足的商業住宅產品，我們不會跟進。

Instead, we are leveraging the expertise of our commercial residential team to expand this product into other states, most recently Hawaii, where we can achieve appropriate risk-adjusted returns. We achieved rate adequacy across 90% of our geographies and continue our efforts to ramp up new business and prudently grow our book of business while maintaining underwriting discipline, maintaining profitability and managing risk. Over the last 5 years, we deliberately took actions designed to improve the quality of our book of business and charge adequate rates, which ultimately reduced our policy count. This trade-off benefited our shareholders and stabilized our results. Given our current position, we are in the process of expanding our product offering and identifying new opportunities for Heritage to meet the needs of our policyholders and agents.

相反地，我們正運用商業住宅團隊的專業，將此產品拓展至其他州；最近的例子是夏威夷，在那裡我們能取得適當的風險調整後報酬。我們已在 90% 的地理區域達成費率充足性，並持續推動新業務放量，在維持核保紀律、維持獲利能力並管理風險的同時，審慎擴大我們的業務組合。過去 5 年，我們刻意採取行動以提升業務組合品質並收取足夠費率，最終使保單件數下降。這項取捨讓股東受益並使我們的業績更為穩定。基於我們目前的定位，我們正著手擴大產品供給並尋找新的機會，讓 Heritage 能滿足保戶與代理人的需求。

As we enter this next phase of responsible growth, we continue to evaluate our markets to meet our customers' needs for coverage at competitive pricing. Loss costs have fallen, and we expect the cost of reinsurance to also decline, which will benefit our policyholders through premium reductions while we maintain margins. At the same time, we continue to cultivate agent relationships in our reopened territories. The early results are encouraging, with new business written up 62.7% from the first quarter of 2025 and over 30% from the fourth quarter of 2025. We are encouraged by our results this quarter and remain optimistic that our initiatives will result in growth throughout the year.

在進入這個負責任成長的下一階段之際，我們持續評估各市場，以在具競爭力的定價下滿足客戶的保障需求。損失成本已下降，我們也預期再保險成本將同步下滑；在我們維持利潤率的同時，這將透過保費下調使保戶受益。同時，我們持續在重新開放的區域培養與代理人的關係。初步成果令人鼓舞，新承作業務較 2025 年第一季成長 62.7%，較 2025 年第四季也成長逾 30%。我們對本季成果感到振奮，並持續樂觀認為我們的各項措施將在全年帶來成長。

Importantly, our policy count trends continue to improve sequentially. While we are seeing a few states with double-digit policy count growth, others are beginning to ramp up, and we are overall seeing positive growth rates. The management-driven policy count reduction over the last several years continue to moderate and points to a growth inflection in the coming quarters. Retention also remains strong at approximately 88%, reinforcing our confidence that we are on a solid path towards sustainable growth in our policy count. As we discussed last quarter, we are exploring additional strategic growth opportunities, including our planned entry into Texas on an excess and surplus lines basis.

重要的是，我們的保單件數趨勢持續逐季改善。雖然我們看到少數州的保單件數呈現兩位數成長，其他州也開始加速放量，整體而言我們正看到正向的成長率。過去幾年由管理層主導的保單件數縮減持續趨緩，並指向未來幾季將出現成長拐點。續保率也維持強勁，約為 88%，進一步強化我們對保單件數走向可持續成長的信心。如同我們上季所討論的，我們正在探索更多策略性成長機會，包括規劃以超額與剩餘險（excess and surplus lines）方式進入德州市場。

Our significant market research indicates this addition to our product line, which we expect will be modest in the first year and nicely aligns with our strategic initiatives. Production will focus primarily on Tier 1 and select Tier 2 geographies, which are close to regions within our risk tolerance. We will leverage both existing agent relationships and new distribution partners. Consistent with our approach of delivering regional expertise, we intend to have underwriting, claims and marketing professionals located in Texas to remain closely aligned with local market dynamics. This provides us with the speed, flexibility and market knowledge of a regional company with the economies of scale of a super regional company.

我們大量的市場研究顯示，將此項目納入我們的產品線與我們的策略性倡議高度契合；我們預期其在第一年貢獻將較為溫和。生產將主要聚焦於第一級（Tier 1）及部分第二級（Tier 2）地理區域，這些區域接近我們風險承受範圍內的地區。我們將同時運用既有的代理人關係與新的通路合作夥伴。秉持我們提供區域專業的做法，我們計畫讓核保、理賠與行銷專業人員駐點德州，以便與當地市場動態保持緊密一致。這使我們兼具區域型公司的速度、彈性與市場知識，以及超區域型公司的規模經濟。

As always, we will maintain a strong focus on underwriting discipline, exposure management and rate adequacy. Heritage is now performing well with a diversified book of business, a strong balance sheet, significant cash from operations and flexibility to take advantage of emerging opportunities. We have built a culture and infrastructure that generates a sustainable competitive advantage by focusing on data-driven decisions, execution and disciplined processes. Our focus is on opportunities that are strategically aligned with our core capabilities and provide solutions in challenging or dislocated insurance markets. Any potential business opportunity must meet our strict financial and risk-based criteria.

一如既往，我們將持續高度聚焦於核保紀律、曝險管理與費率充足性。Heritage 目前表現良好，擁有多元化的業務組合、強健的資產負債表、可觀的營運現金流，以及把握新興機會的彈性。我們透過聚焦數據驅動的決策、執行力與嚴謹流程，建立了能產生可持續競爭優勢的文化與基礎設施。我們關注的是與核心能力策略一致、並能在具挑戰或失衡的保險市場中提供解決方案的機會。任何潛在的業務機會都必須符合我們嚴格的財務與風險標準。

We require a deep understanding of the target market, including loss history, regulatory environment, reinsurance implication and key risk drivers, and we will only pursue opportunities that are expected to generate returns in excess of our cost of capital. Importantly, we are focused on maintaining prudent exposure management and ensuring that any transaction does not introduce undue enterprise or reputational risk. While competition has increased, our view is that not all of the operators in our space will be able to effectively manage the complexities of the market cycles. To the extent that consolidation opportunities emerge, we believe our scale, balance sheet strength, experienced workforce and local expertise positions us well to selectively evaluate opportunities that meet our disciplined criteria. Before I wrap up, I want to briefly touch on technology and artificial intelligence, which are important enablers of our strategy.

我們要求對目標市場有深入理解，包括損失歷史、監管環境、再保險影響與主要風險驅動因素；且我們只會追求預期報酬高於資本成本的機會。同樣重要的是，我們專注於維持審慎的曝險管理，並確保任何交易不會引入不必要的企業風險或聲譽風險。儘管競爭加劇，我們認為並非所有同業都能有效管理市場循環的複雜性。若出現整併機會，我們相信自身的規模、資產負債表實力、經驗豐富的人才與在地專業，使我們能有利地選擇性評估符合我們嚴謹標準的機會。在我結語之前，我想簡要談談科技與人工智慧，它們是我們策略的重要推動力。

We are actively deploying AI tools across the organization to improve efficiency and customer service as well as provide better tools for decision-making while maintaining appropriate controls and oversight. AI will continue to reduce manual effort, improve accuracy, assist with better quality control and provide analytics that will assist us in aligning staffing needs to customer demands. We expect that we will continue to enhance these capabilities for improved quality and customer service. Additionally, we continue to see the benefits of tort reform as industry loss expectations for Hurricane Milton have been steadily falling, largely due to reduced litigation, which benefits not only us but our panel of reinsurers. Given the improved litigation environment in Florida, the lack of catastrophe losses in our markets during 2025 and the reinsurance capacity entering the traditional and insurance-linked security markets, we remain optimistic that reinsurance pricing will continue to improve in 2026.

我們正積極在全組織部署 AI 工具，以提升效率與客戶服務，並在維持適當控制與監督的同時，提供更好的決策工具。AI 將持續降低人工投入、提升準確性、協助更佳的品質控管，並提供分析以協助我們使人力配置需求與客戶需求對齊。我們預期將持續強化這些能力，以提升品質與客戶服務。此外，隨著佛州侵權改革帶來的效益逐步顯現，業界對颶風 Milton 的損失預期持續下修，主要原因是訴訟減少；這不僅有利於我們，也有利於我們的再保險人團。鑑於佛州訴訟環境改善、2025 年我們市場缺乏巨災損失，以及再保險承保能量進入傳統與保險連結證券（ILS）市場，我們仍對 2026 年再保險價格持續改善保持樂觀。

We believe the favorable reinsurance terms will benefit the consumer with respect to the cost of insurance. To conclude, this quarter reflects the steady execution of the strategy we put in place several years ago. We delivered strong results, maintained underwriting discipline and have firmly positioned the company to pursue controlled profitable growth going forward. I would also like to reiterate our dedication to navigating the complexities of our market with a strategic focus that prioritizes long-term profitability, shareholder value and customer service, driven by our dedicated workforce, who I would like to personally thank for their efforts. Kirk, over to you.

我們相信有利的再保險條款將在保險成本方面使消費者受益。總結而言，本季反映出我們數年前制定策略的穩健落實。我們交出強勁成果、維持核保紀律，並已穩固地讓公司處於可在未來追求可控且具獲利性的成長之位置。我也要再次強調，我們致力於以策略性聚焦來因應市場的複雜性，優先考量長期獲利能力、股東價值與客戶服務；這一切由我們敬業的團隊所驅動，我也要親自感謝他們的付出。Kirk，交給你。

Thank you, Ernie, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our financial highlights. We reported net income of $36.5 million or $1.19 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2026 compared to $30.5 million or $0.99 per diluted share in the first quarter of last year. This is a great start to the year considering that this is the highest first quarter earnings in our history despite weather losses in the Northeast, combined with the seasonality of our earnings. Since we regained profitability footing in 2023, the first quarter has made up 23% of our annual earnings.

謝謝你，Ernie，各位早安。先從我們的財務重點開始。我們公布 2026 年第一季淨利為 3,650 萬美元，或稀釋後每股盈餘 1.19 美元；相較去年第一季淨利 3,050 萬美元，或稀釋後每股盈餘 0.99 美元。考量到東北部的天候損失以及我們獲利的季節性，這仍是非常好的年度開局，且這是我們歷史上最高的第一季獲利。自 2023 年我們恢復獲利基礎以來，第一季約占我們全年獲利的 23%。

This bodes well for the rest of the year. The increase in our first quarter earnings was primarily driven by lower net losses incurred and higher investment income, partially offset by higher operating expenses. The earnings generated an ROE of 28.5%, while average shareholder equity increased by 65.5% from the prior year quarter. Premiums-in-force totaled $1.427 billion, down 0.4% from $1.432 billion in the prior year quarter. The decline continues to be primarily driven by competitive market conditions in the Florida commercial residential market, where we remain disciplined and focused on rate adequacy and adequate margins, as Ernie noted.

這對今年其餘時間而言是個好兆頭。第一季獲利增加主要由已發生淨損失較低與投資收益較高所帶動，但部分被營運費用增加所抵銷。本季獲利帶來 28.5% 的股東權益報酬率（ROE），同時平均股東權益較去年同期增加 65.5%。在保保費（Premiums-in-force）合計 14.27 億美元，較去年同期的 14.32 億美元下降 0.4%。如 Ernie 所述，下降主要仍受佛州商業住宅市場競爭環境影響；我們維持紀律，並聚焦於費率充足性與足夠的利潤空間。

While we continue to see opportunities, we will only write policies that meet our pricing and underwriting standards. Gross premiums earned were $353.6 million, essentially flat with $353.8 million in the prior year quarter. Lower commercial residential activity was largely offset by growth in the personal residential lines. Net premiums earned totaled $199.7 million, also consistent with the prior year as ceded premiums were relatively flat. Gross premiums written were $346.7 million, down 2.6% quarter-over-quarter, primarily reflecting the reduction in Florida commercial residential business.

雖然我們仍看到機會，但我們只會承作符合我們定價與核保標準的保單。已賺毛保費為 3.536 億美元，與去年同期的 3.538 億美元基本持平。商業住宅業務活動下降，主要由個人住宅險種的成長大致抵銷。已賺淨保費合計 1.997 億美元，也與去年同期一致，因分出保費相對持平。簽單毛保費為 3.467 億美元，較上一季下降 2.6%，主要反映佛州商業住宅業務的縮減。

Our net loss ratio improved to 45.9%, a 3.8 point improvement from 49.7% in the prior year quarter. The improvement was driven by lower net losses and loss adjustment expenses, including lower weather losses and continued favorable attritional loss performance. Additionally, we experienced higher favorable prior year loss development this quarter. These results reflect the positive impact of sustained underwriting and rate actions taken over the past several years. The net expense ratio increased modestly to 35.2% from 34.8% in the prior year quarter, driven primarily by higher human capital-related costs with net premiums earned remained relatively flat.

我們的淨損失率改善至 45.9%，較去年同期的 49.7% 改善 3.8 個百分點。改善主要由已發生淨損失與損失調整費用下降所帶動，包括較低的天候損失，以及持續良好的常態性（attritional）損失表現。此外，本季我們也出現較高的有利前期年度損失發展。這些結果反映出過去數年持續推動的核保與費率措施所帶來的正面影響。淨費用率小幅上升至 35.2%，高於去年同期的 34.8%，主要由人力資本相關成本增加所致，而已賺淨保費則維持相對持平。

As a result, the net combined ratio improved to 81%, a 3.5 point improvement from 84.5% in the first quarter of last year, reflecting the improvement in loss ratio, partially offset by higher expense ratio. Net investment income increased to $9.9 million, up 15.1% from $8.6 million in the prior year quarter, driven by higher invested assets with relatively stable return. We continue to maintain a high-quality conservative position investment portfolio that is well matched to our liabilities. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 25.6% compared to 23.8% in the prior year quarter. As a reminder, we calculate income tax expense during interim periods based on estimates, which can fluctuate as assumptions are updated throughout the year.

因此，淨綜合比率改善至 81%，較去年第一季的 84.5% 改善 3.5 個百分點，反映損失率改善，但部分被較高的費用率所抵銷。淨投資收益增加至 990 萬美元，較去年同期的 860 萬美元成長 15.1%，主要受惠於投資資產規模增加且報酬率相對穩定。我們持續維持高品質、保守的投資組合配置，並與我們的負債良好匹配。本季有效稅率為 25.6%，相較去年同期為 23.8%。提醒一下，我們在期中期間係依據估計數計算所得稅費用；隨著全年假設更新，該數字可能會波動。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total assets of $2 billion and cash and invested assets of $1.27 billion and stockholders' equity of $520.4 million. Book value per share increased to $17.15 as of March 31, 2026, representing an increase of 4.6% from December 31, 2025, and 61.5% from the first quarter of 2025. The increase from year-end 2025 was driven primarily by net income, partially offset by a $3.4 million net-of-tax increase in unrealized losses in the fixed income portfolio and the repurchase of $10 million of common stock during the quarter. Nonregulated cash at quarter end was $65.8 million, Cash flow from operations was $24.9 million and combined statutory surplus was up $15.1 million to $407.6 million from year-end 2025.

接著談資產負債表。本季期末，我們的總資產為 20 億美元，現金及投資資產為 12.7 億美元，股東權益為 5.204 億美元。截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日，每股帳面價值增至 17.15 美元，較 2025 年 12 月 31 日增加 4.6%，較 2025 年第一季增加 61.5%。相較 2025 年底的增幅主要由淨利帶動，但部分被固定收益投資組合未實現損失（稅後）增加 340 萬美元，以及本季回購 1,000 萬美元普通股所抵銷。季末非監管現金為 6,580 萬美元；營運活動現金流為 2,490 萬美元；合併法定盈餘較 2025 年底增加 1,510 萬美元至 4.076 億美元。

Importantly, our debt-to-capital ratio has been steadily declining as earnings power and cash generation of the company has improved. That is now 13% at the end of the first quarter, which is a remarkable improvement and a testament to the successful implementation of our strategic initiatives.

重要的是，隨著公司獲利能力與現金創造能力提升，我們的負債對資本比率一直在穩步下降。第一季期末該比率已降至 13%，這是顯著的改善，也證明我們成功落實策略性措施。

Additionally, we now have significant nonregulated cash, solid cash flow from operations, adequate room for leverage and increased statutory capital which together position us well to support growth as our open territories continue to scale new business production. As the earnings power of the company has increased, we have continued to build capital, which we are prioritizing for organic growth or other growth and opportunistic share repurchases when we believe our shares are undervalued relative to our financial performance and future earnings potential. Year-to-date through today, we have repurchased 446,884 shares of our common stock for $12 million under the Board authorized $25 million share repurchase program. Yesterday, the Board of Directors approved a new $50 million share repurchase plan replacing the current plan. The new plan is effective immediately through December 31, 2026.

此外，我們目前擁有可觀的非監管現金、穩健的營運現金流、充足的槓桿空間，以及增加的法定資本；這些因素共同使我們具備良好條件，在開放區域持續擴大新業務產能之際支援成長。隨著公司獲利能力提升，我們持續累積資本；我們將資本配置優先用於有機成長或其他成長機會，並在我們認為股價相對於財務表現與未來獲利潛力被低估時，進行機會性股票回購。截至今日的年初至今，我們已在董事會授權的 2,500 萬美元庫藏股回購計畫下，以 1,200 萬美元回購 446,884 股普通股。昨日，董事會核准一項新的 5,000 萬美元股票回購計畫，以取代現行計畫。新計畫即日起生效，至 2026 年 12 月 31 日止。

Looking ahead, we remain focused on executing our 2026 strategic initiatives centered on underwriting discipline, capital allocation, data-driven analytics and exposure management. Additionally, we expect to leverage tools to allow our workforce to be more efficient. We believe these efforts position Heritage well to continue generating profitable, controlled growth and deliver long-term value to shareholders, agents and policyholders. Thank you for your time today. Operator, we are now ready for questions.

展望未來，我們仍專注於執行 2026 年策略性措施，核心包括核保紀律、資本配置、數據驅動分析與曝險管理。此外，我們預期將運用工具提升員工效率。我們相信，這些努力使 Heritage 能夠持續創造具獲利性且可控的成長，並為股東、代理人與保戶帶來長期價值。感謝各位今天撥冗參與。主持人，我們現在準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

(主持人指示) Paul Newsome，Piper Sandler。

Could you give us a little bit more detail about the Florida competition? -- press release just basically competition. But the comments on the call sounds more like it's pretty concentrated in commercial property, but is the broader property market just as competitive as the commercial business?

能否請你們再多提供一些關於佛羅里達競爭情況的細節？——新聞稿基本上只提到競爭。但電話會議上的說法聽起來更像是競爭主要集中在商業不動產；不過，整體不動產市場是否也像商業業務一樣競爭激烈？

So broader speaking on the personal line side, there are new entrants into the market. Most of those entrants have started and are doing takeouts. We've not quite seen all of them in the voluntary market as of yet. And my assumption would be they would be taking on those policies or takeout policies here for the next year or 2. So I think it's down the road, we'll have to kind of see. I think the competition we're referring to mostly is on the commercial side right now.

就更廣泛而言，在個人險這一端，市場上有新的參與者進入。其中多數新進者已開始並正在進行承接移轉（takeouts）。截至目前，我們還沒有在自願市場中看到他們全部到位。我的推測是，他們會在接下來 1 到 2 年承接這些保單或承接移轉保單。因此我認為這還需要時間觀察。我想我們目前所指的競爭主要是在商業端。

And then maybe some thoughts as we try to model the company in the future about the seasonality of the business and the cat load in the quarter as we go through the quarters -- the earnings miss really was driven, I think, entirely by cat losses, at least in my model. Just any thoughts on how you think about the seasonality and whether or not the cat load in the first quarter was kind of a normal cat load or if we should think of that as being a little bit anomalous in the direction.

另外，當我們嘗試為公司未來建模時，想請教你們對業務季節性以及各季度巨災（cat）負荷的看法——至少在我的模型裡，這次獲利未達預期似乎完全是由巨災損失所致。想請你們分享一下你們如何看待季節性，以及第一季的巨災負荷是否屬於正常水準，或我們應將其視為在某種方向上略為異常。

Yes. Good question, Paul. And yes, the first quarter was more -- moving back to a more normal year for winter weather losses in the Northeast. Last year was very low, but we did have the California wildfires, which kind of gave us almost the same number.

是的。好問題，Paul。是的，第一季更像是回到較正常的一年——東北部冬季天候損失較為常態化。去年非常低，但我們有加州野火，某種程度上使數字幾乎相同。

So when you look at the seasonality, I mean, one of the things typically barring hurricane ethic stuff is the first quarter is the worst quarter for us from an earnings standpoint, and it has to do with those winter storms. And so typically, we've looked at less than a quarter of our annualized earnings being in the first quarter.

所以談到季節性，我的意思是，通常在不考慮颶風等因素的情況下，第一季從獲利角度來看是我們最差的一季，原因就在於冬季風暴。因此一般而言，我們觀察到第一季的年化獲利通常不到全年總額的四分之一。

Is the cat load in the first quarter higher than the normalized cat load in the third given hurricanes?

第一季的巨災負荷是否會高於第三季（考量颶風）的常態化巨災負荷？

Well, we actually load the third quarter with a little bit more of a cat load in the third quarter. So second and fourth quarters typically are a pretty good quarter for us. And then historically speaking, the fourth quarter is by far our best quarter.

嗯，我們其實會在第三季配置稍高一些的巨災負荷。因此第二季與第四季通常對我們來說是相當不錯的季度。而從歷史來看，第四季無疑是我們表現最好的季度。

Mark Hughes, Truist.

Mark Hughes，Truist。

When you take into account the commercial residential and then maybe a little more favorable trends on the personal lines side, what -- and it sounds like new business is ramping up. How should we think about the written premium growth this year? You've been slightly negative the last couple of quarters. Does that inflect positively at some point here?

當你把商業住宅納入考量，然後個人險端可能也有一些較有利的趨勢，而且聽起來新業務正在加速成長。我們今年應該如何看待簽單保費（written premium）的成長？你們過去幾個季度略為負成長。這裡是否會在某個時間點轉為正向？

Yes. We think it will. And again, I mean, when we look at kind of the quarter-over-quarter reductions, it has been decreasing, but it's been decreasing at a decreasing amount. So therefore, we actually think probably second, third quarter, that is going to reverse itself, and we actually anticipate being positive for the full year.

是的。我們認為會。再說一次，我的意思是，當我們看季度對季度的降幅時，它一直在縮小，但縮小的幅度也在縮小。因此，我們其實認為大概在第二、第三季會出現反轉，而且我們預期全年會轉為正成長。

Very good. How about the underlying loss ratio, if you take out the weather and then the favorable development -- was it up a little bit in Q1? And if so, was that mix of pricing?

很好。那基礎損失率（underlying loss ratio）呢？如果把天氣因素以及有利的準備金發展（favorable development）扣除——第一季是否略有上升？如果是，上升是否來自定價組合（mix of pricing）？

Actually, considering the prior year development, that type of stuff, we actually have it down very slightly. So for example, if you back out the weather losses and the prior year development, last year, you're going to be about at 31.8%. This year, you're going to be at 31.6%. So a slight decrease. And therefore, when we look at that attritional loss ratio, it's actually been fairly stable over the quarters for a couple of years now.

其實，若考量前一年度準備金發展等因素，我們的數字是非常小幅下降。例如，如果你把天氣損失與前一年度準備金發展扣除，去年大約是31.8%。今年大約是31.6%。所以是小幅下降。因此，當我們看這個經常性（attritional）損失率時，過去幾年各季度其實都相當穩定。

Okay. What was it in the attritional loss in the fourth quarter?

好的。第四季的經常性損失是多少？

Attritional loss in the fourth quarter. Let me get that for you real quick. It was 26.7%.

第四季的經常性損失。我很快幫你查一下。是26.7%。

And then when we think about the growth on a go-forward basis, I think you're providing the commercial versus personal lines, but not necessarily the geographic breakout like previously. Do you think that your growth will be more oriented to Florida or non-Florida?

那麼，當我們思考未來的成長時，我知道你們提供了商業險與個人險的拆分，但不一定像以前那樣提供地理區域的拆分。你認為你們的成長會更偏向佛羅里達，還是非佛羅里達？

It's a combination, Mark. So on commercial, you won't see as much growth, obviously, on the commercial in the Florida area. But we have expanded commercial residential is growing in New York, New Jersey, as we mentioned as well in the earnings call in Hawaii. And then all other states are growing as well, Virginia, New York from a personal lines perspective.

Mark，這是兩者的組合。就商業險而言，顯然在佛羅里達地區不會看到那麼多成長。但我們已擴展的商業住宅在紐約、紐澤西成長，如同我們在法說會中也提到在夏威夷也在成長。此外，其他州也在成長，從個人險角度來看，包括維吉尼亞、紐約等。

Karol Chmiel, Citizens.

Karol Chmiel，Citizens。

Two questions. One is -- or the first one is regarding the cat weather losses. And can you just confirm that all of those are from the Northeast winter storms? Or is there more to it?

兩個問題。第一個是關於巨災（cat）天氣損失。你能否確認這些全部都來自東北部的冬季風暴？還是還有其他因素？

No, those are all the Northeast winter storms, right? Hernando, Gianna, Fern. Yes, those are all related to that.

沒有，那些全部都是東北部的冬季風暴，對吧？Hernando、Gianna、Fern。是的，全部都與此相關。

Is there a particular state that was hit the hardest?

有沒有哪一個州受創最嚴重？

It's mostly mixed between New York and New Jersey, a little bit in Rhode Island as well.

主要是紐約與紐澤西之間的混合，羅德島也有一點。

Okay. Great. And then my second question is regarding the new repurchase agreement authorization. So you had the $25 million prior. You used about $12 million of it year-to-date, and now you have a new $50 million. So the net increase in your authorization is about $38 million. Is that correct?

好的。很好。第二個問題是關於新的庫藏股回購授權。你們之前有2,500萬美元的額度。今年迄今已使用約1,200萬美元，現在又有新的5,000萬美元。所以你們授權的淨增加約為3,800萬美元。這樣理解正確嗎？

No, no. The increase, in other words, the $25 million is terminated, we have a new authorization for $50 million. So the authorization between now and the end of the year is $50 million.

不，不是。增加的意思是，原本的2,500萬美元已終止，我們有一個新的5,000萬美元授權。所以從現在到年底的授權額度是5,000萬美元。

Okay. But the $25 million was fully -- the $25 million..

好的。但那2,500萬美元是完全——那2,500萬美元……

No, we used $12 million of the $25 million, but that $12 million is a separate because it was before the new authorization. So the $12 million would be in addition to the new $50.

不，我們在2,500萬美元中用了1,200萬美元，但那1,200萬美元是另外一回事，因為它是在新授權之前。所以那1,200萬美元會是在新的5,000萬美元之外的額外回購。

Got you. And then can you just comment on how much was repurchased so far in Q2?

了解。那你能否評論一下第二季迄今為止回購了多少？

It would have been about -- it was just after the first -- we did $10 million in the beginning of the year, and then it was like an additional $2 million. So -- of the new authorization, we have not purchased any.

大概是——是在第一季之後不久——我們在年初做了1,000萬美元，然後又追加了大約200萬美元。所以——就新的授權而言，我們尚未進行任何回購。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Ernie Garateix for any final remarks.

各位女士、先生，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給Ernie Garateix，請他做最後的結語。

Thank you for joining the call, and we hope everyone has a great weekend.

感謝各位參與本次電話會議，也祝大家週末愉快。

The call has now been concluded. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議現在結束。您現在可以掛線。