H & R Block Inc (HRB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to H&R Block's Full Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 H&R Block 2023 年全年財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the call over to Michaella Gallina, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Michaella Gallina。請繼續。

Thank you, Lateef. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to H&R Block's Full Year Fiscal 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me today are Jeff Jones, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Bowen, our Chief Financial Officer. Earlier today, we issued a press release and presentation, which can be downloaded or viewed live on our website at investors.hrblock.com. Our call is being broadcast and webcast live, and a replay of the webcast will be available for 90 days.

謝謝你，拉蒂夫。大家下午好，歡迎參加 H&R Block 2023 財年全年財務業績電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官傑夫·瓊斯 (Jeff Jones)；以及我們的首席財務官托尼·鮑文 (Tony Bowen)。今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，您可以在我們的網站 Investors.hrblock.com 上下載或實時查看。我們的電話會議正在進行廣播和網絡直播，網絡直播的重播將在 90 天內提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind listeners that comments made by management may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements involve material risks and uncertainties, and actual results could differ from those projected in any forward-looking statement due to numerous factors. For a description of these risks and uncertainties, please see H&R Block's annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q as updated periodically with our other SEC filings.

在開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層發表的評論可能包括聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性，由於多種因素，實際結果可能與任何前瞻性陳述中的預測有所不同。有關這些風險和不確定性的說明，請參閱 H&R Block 的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告，這些報告與我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件定期更新。

Please note, some metrics we'll discuss today are presented on a non-GAAP basis. We reconciled the comparable GAAP and non-GAAP figures in the appendix of our presentation. Finally, the content of this call contains time-sensitive information accurate only as of today, August 15, 2023. H&R Block undertakes no obligation to revise or otherwise update any statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this call.

請注意，我們今天將討論的一些指標是在非公認會計原則的基礎上提出的。我們在演示文稿的附錄中對可比較的公認會計原則和非公認會計原則數據進行了核對。最後，本次電話會議的內容包含截至今天（2023 年8 月15 日）的時間敏感信息。H&R Block 不承擔修改或以其他方式更新任何聲明以反映本次電話會議日期之後發生的事件或情況的義務。

With that, I will now turn it over to Jeff.

有了這個，我現在將把它交給傑夫。

Thanks, Michaella. Today, we'll provide an update on our fiscal year '23 results. Then I'll share more on the progress we continue to make within our Block Horizon strategy, provide initial thoughts on fiscal year '24, and Tony will discuss our financial performance and outlook in more detail.

謝謝，米凱拉。今天，我們將提供 23 財年業績的最新信息。然後我將分享更多關於我們在 Block Horizo​​n 戰略中繼續取得的進展，提供關於 24 財年的初步想法，托尼將更詳細地討論我們的財務業績和前景。

Starting with 2023 results. We had a good finish to the year and delivered revenue growth, material EBITDA growth and adjusted EPS growth of 9%. As we discussed at the beginning of the year, we knew we were facing headwinds due to the rollback of the advanced Child Tax Credit payments that were loaded on to the Emerald Card. During the year, we also had foreign exchange impacts, stimulus filers that returned to the sidelines and California's deadline extension. Overall, I'm pleased with the results we produced despite these challenges.

從 2023 年結果開始。我們今年取得了良好的業績，收入增長，EBITDA 大幅增長，調整後每股收益增長 9%。正如我們在今年年初討論的那樣，我們知道由於預存到翡翠卡上的兒童稅收抵免預付款的回滾，我們面臨著阻力。這一年裡，我們還受到了外匯影響、經濟刺激申請者重新觀望以及加州的最後期限延長。總的來說，儘管面臨這些挑戰，我對我們取得的成果感到滿意。

Our DIY strategy delivered this year, resulting in meaningful share gains. We demonstrated pricing power in the Assisted channel and saw positive customer satisfaction metrics. Small Business tax continued to be a growth driver, and we also added about 150,000 new sign-ups to our Spruce mobile banking platform. In addition, our capital allocation story is driving ongoing value for shareholders. We completed another $200 million of share repurchases in Q4 alone, and today announced a 10% increase to the dividend. Entering fiscal year '24, we are well positioned and expect to return to ordinary industry growth which Tony will discuss in more detail during the call. Before that, let me share more about our Block Horizons progress.

我們今年實施的 DIY 戰略帶來了可觀的份額增長。我們在輔助渠道中展示了定價能力，並看到了積極的客戶滿意度指標。小企業稅繼續成為增長動力，我們的 Spruce 移動銀行平台還增加了約 15 萬新註冊用戶。此外，我們的資本配置故事正在為股東帶來持續的價值。僅在第四季度，我們就完成了另外 2 億美元的股票回購，今天宣布將股息增加 10%。進入 24 財年，我們處於有利位置，預計將恢復正常的行業增長，托尼將在電話會議中更詳細地討論這一點。在此之前，讓我先分享一下我們的 Block Horizo​​ns 進展。

Let's start with our small business imperative that includes Tax and Wave. Small business Assisted tax continues to be a growth driver. This business delivered 6% revenue growth for the fiscal year on top of strong growth last year, led by net average charge or NAC, which grew 5%. We also see a nice runway of longer-term opportunities and services. While early, bookkeeping and payroll are gaining traction, and this year, we launched a business formation tool. Our new internal sales team more than doubled appointment to sale conversion rates, accelerating growth in services. All in all, we are pleased with the trends in small business and continue to see significant opportunity ahead.

讓我們從小型企業的當務之急開始，其中包括稅收和波浪。小企業輔助稅仍然是增長動力。在去年強勁增長的基礎上，該業務本財年收入增長了 6%，其中淨平均費用 (NAC) 增長了 5%。我們還看到了一條包含長期機會和服務的良好跑道。雖然簿記和工資單很早就受到關注，但今年我們推出了業務形成工具。我們新的內部銷售團隊將預約到銷售的轉化率提高了一倍以上，加速了服務的增長。總而言之，我們對小型企業的趨勢感到滿意，並繼續看到未來的重大機遇。

Turning to Wave. Our top priorities are driving revenue growth and improving profitability. For the full year, revenue increased 12%. In the fourth quarter, we grew average revenue per user while also becoming more efficient with our customer acquisition spend. We also launched a new feature for receipt processing that scans and imports data in seconds, reducing manual bookkeeping. Its uptake has been faster than anticipated and we are now working on a robust road map of other new features to roll out in the coming months.

轉向波浪。我們的首要任務是推動收入增長和提高盈利能力。全年收入增長 12%。第四季度，我們的每用戶平均收入有所增長，同時我們的客戶獲取支出也變得更加高效。我們還推出了收據處理新功能，可在幾秒鐘內掃描和導入數據，減少手動記賬。它的採用速度比預期的要快，我們現在正在製定其他新功能的強大路線圖，以便在未來幾個月內推出。

Moving on to our financial products imperative. Regarding Spruce, our mobile banking platform, we've been utilizing learnings from its first year in the Assisted channel to address and solve the needs of our clients. Since launch through June 30, we have added 300,000 sign-ups and $334 million in customer deposits. Spruce is committed in helping customers be good with money, and we're seeing progress toward that impact goal. A higher percentage of users are now saving money and the balance accumulating in savings accounts continues to grow. These savings accounts allow users to customize goals in order to save for the things they want in their lives whether it be emergency savings or a new car.

轉向我們的金融產品勢在必行。關於我們的移動銀行平台 Spruce，我們一直在利用輔助渠道第一年的經驗來滿足和解決客戶的需求。自推出以來截至 6 月 30 日，我們已增加了 30 萬註冊用戶和 3.34 億美元的客戶存款。 Spruce 致力於幫助客戶善用金錢，我們正在看到在實現這一影響目標方面取得的進展。現在，越來越多的用戶開始儲蓄，儲蓄賬戶中積累的餘額持續增長。這些儲蓄賬戶允許用戶自定義目標，以便為他們生活中想要的東西進行儲蓄，無論是緊急儲蓄還是新車。

Our newest feature, a budget watch list, utilizes flexible guardrails to help build healthy spending habits. Feedback from users indicates that these tools give them the visibility and control that they have been missing in their financial lives. From here, we are focused on acquiring clients both in and out of the tax season.

我們的最新功能是預算觀察清單，利用靈活的護欄來幫助建立健康的消費習慣。用戶的反饋表明，這些工具為他們提供了財務生活中所缺少的可見性和控制力。從這裡開始，我們專注於在納稅季節內外獲取客戶。

Now let's turn to Block experience, which is all about blending digital tools with human expertise to serve clients however they want to be served, fully virtual to fully in person and everything in between. In DIY, we delivered on what we set out to do, and we were especially pleased with the results. As you recall, our goal was to return to share growth by increasing awareness that we offer a DIY product, by improving the product and by making it easier to switch from TurboTax. This multifaceted strategy worked. And as we reported last quarter, we saw online client growth of 2.5% through April 30, and 35 basis points of share growth. We are looking forward to continuing this momentum in fiscal '24.

現在讓我們轉向 Block 體驗，它是將數字工具與人類專業知識相結合，以客戶想要的方式為他們提供服務，從完全虛擬到完全面對面以及介於兩者之間的一切。在 DIY 中，我們實現了我們的目標，而且我們對結果特別滿意。您還記得，我們的目標是通過提高人們對我們提供 DIY 產品的認識、改進產品以及更輕鬆地從 TurboTax 轉換來重新分享增長。這種多方面的策略奏效了。正如我們上季度報告的那樣，截至 4 月 30 日，在線客戶增長了 2.5%，份額增長了 35 個基點。我們期待在 24 財年繼續保持這一勢頭。

In Assisted through April 30, we successfully increased company NAC by 4% while receiving strong customer satisfaction metrics. We also attracted higher income clients and sold over 10% growth in those with more than $100,000 of income. And as we shared last quarter, we continue to see progress in the adoption of virtual tools. Although we saw stimulus filers return to the sidelines, the data shows that dynamic is now behind us, and we're focused on bringing more new clients into the Assisted channel next year.

在截至 4 月 30 日的協助中，我們成功地將公司 NAC 提高了 4%，同時獲得了強勁的客戶滿意度指標。我們還吸引了收入較高的客戶，收入超過 10 萬美元的客戶銷售額增長了 10% 以上。正如我們上季度分享的那樣，我們繼續看到虛擬工具的採用取得了進展。儘管我們看到刺激申報者重新袖手旁觀，但數據顯示，動態現在已經過去，我們明年的重點是讓更多新客戶進入輔助渠道。

As you may have seen from our recent announcement, we entered into an industry-linked partnership with Microsoft to leverage its Azure OpenAI services in and leading Gen AI technology to fuel faster and better experiences for taxpayers. While we have been building in-house capabilities for some time, we believe we can further accelerate our progress by leveraging the most advanced AI models in the world while continuing to keep data security a top priority.

您可能從我們最近的公告中看到，我們與 Microsoft 建立了行業相關的合作夥伴關係，利用其 Azure OpenAI 服務和領先的 Gen AI 技術為納稅人提供更快、更好的體驗。雖然我們建立內部能力已經有一段時間了，但我們相信，我們可以通過利用世界上最先進的人工智能模型來進一步加速我們的進步，同時繼續將數據安全放在首位。

We will initially be focused on 2 areas: first, using Gen AI to reduce expenses and increase productivity; and second, to deliver enhanced customer experiences. We have dedicated teams working on these efforts, and we are excited about the possibilities for H&R Block. Looking back over the last few years, we have made significant strides in our products, services and features within our Block Horizon strategy, and we're looking forward to what lies ahead.

我們最初將重點關注兩個領域：第一，利用Gen AI來減少開支並提高生產力；其次，提供增強的客戶體驗。我們有專門的團隊致力於這些工作，我們對 H&R Block 的可能性感到興奮。回顧過去幾年，我們在 Block Horizo​​n 戰略中的產品、服務和功能方面取得了重大進展，我們對未來充滿期待。

Now let me turn it over to Tony to discuss our financials and outlook.

現在讓我把它交給托尼來討論我們的財務狀況和前景。

Thanks, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'll review results for fiscal year '23, provide detail on our outlook and share more on our strong capital allocation practice. We delivered nearly $3.5 billion of revenue, an increase of $9 million over last year. The increase was due to higher U.S. Assisted tax preparation revenues, partially offset by a decrease in Emerald Card revenues. As a reminder, the impact from the Emerald Card was over $30 million due to the rollback of the Advanced Child Tax Credit. We also had a negative foreign exchange impact of $19 million. Given these variables, I'm pleased that we're able to grow the top line this year.

謝謝，傑夫。大家下午好。今天，我將回顧 23 財年的業績，詳細介紹我們的前景，並分享更多關於我們強大的資本配置實踐的信息。我們實現了近 35 億美元的收入，比去年增加了 900 萬美元。這一增長是由於美國輔助稅務準備收入增加，部分被翡翠卡收入減少所抵消。提醒一下，由於高級兒童稅收抵免的回滾，翡翠卡的影響超過 3000 萬美元。我們還受到了 1,900 萬美元的負面外匯影響。考慮到這些變量，我很高興我們今年能夠實現營收增長。

Total operating expenses were $2.7 billion, an increase of approximately $5 million primarily driven by higher field wages and partially offset by lower consulting and outsourced services. We saw about $5 million of savings from our footprint optimization efforts as we continue to eliminate unnecessary square footage. Interest expense was $73 million, a decrease of $15 million or about 17% due to lower interest expense on our (inaudible) compared to last year, partially offset by higher interest expense on our line of credit due to higher interest rates and higher draws.

總運營費用為 27 億美元，增加了約 500 萬美元，主要是由於現場工資上漲，部分被諮詢和外包服務減少所抵消。隨著我們繼續消除不必要的面積，我們通過佔地面積優化工作節省了約 500 萬美元。利息支出為7,300 萬美元，減少了1,500 萬美元或約17%，原因是我們的利息支出（聽不清）與去年相比有所下降，部分被我們的信貸額度因利率上升和提款增加而導致的利息支出增加所抵消。

Other income increased $33 million, primarily due to higher interest income. As we've discussed, higher interest rates were a net benefit given our cash position throughout the year. Pretax income was $711 million, an increase of $52 million or about 8%. Earnings per share from continuing operations increased from $3.26 to $3.56 and adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations increased from $3.51 to $3.82 or 9%. This is a meaningful growth despite the aforementioned headwinds as well as our effective tax rate increasing from 15% to 21%.

其他收入增加了 3300 萬美元，主要是由於利息收入增加。正如我們所討論的，考慮到我們全年的現金狀況，較高的利率是一個淨收益。稅前收入為 7.11 億美元，增加了 5,200 萬美元，增幅約為 8%。持續經營業務每股收益從 3.26 美元增至 3.56 美元，調整後持續經營業務每股收益從 3.51 美元增至 3.82 美元，即 9%。儘管存在上述不利因素，而且我們的有效稅率從 15% 提高到 21%，但這仍然是一個有意義的增長。

Lastly, we acquired just over 200 franchise locations in '23. We feel great about franchisees' willingness to sell to us and are pleased with how this opportunity supports our longer-term revenue growth. As you can clearly see in our results, our capital allocation story remains strong. We completed another $200 million of share repurchases in the fourth quarter at an average price of $30.94 after already completing $350 million repurchases in the first half of the year. In fiscal year '23, we retired 9% of shares outstanding at an average price of $37.59. Over the last 5 years, we have reduced shares outstanding from $209 million to $146 million or approximately 32% of our float. We continue to fully share repurchase as a great use of capital.

最後，我們在 2023 年收購了 200 多個特許經營店。我們對特許經營商願意向我們出售產品感到非常高興，並對這一機會如何支持我們的長期收入增長感到高興。正如您在我們的結果中清楚地看到的那樣，我們的資本配置故事仍然強勁。繼上半年完成了 3.5 億美元的股票回購後，我們在第四季度以 30.94 美元的平均價格再次完成了 2 億美元的股票回購。在 23 財年，我們以 37.59 美元的平均價格退役了 9% 的已發行股票。在過去 5 年裡，我們已將流通股從 2.09 億美元減少到 1.46 億美元，約佔流通股的 32%。我們繼續將全額股份回購視為資本的一大用途。

As Jeff mentioned earlier, today, we also announced a 10% increase to the dividend. Over the last 5 years, we've increased the dividend by about 30%. What is great about the capital allocation approach is that despite increase in the dividend, the total dollars paid has been decreasing because we have acquired so many shares which just created a nice flywheel.

正如傑夫之前提到的，今天我們還宣布將股息增加 10%。過去 5 年裡，我們將股息增加了約 30%。資本配置方法的優點在於，儘管股息增加，但支付的總金額卻在減少，因為我們收購瞭如此多的股票，這恰好創造了一個很好的飛輪。

As we've consistently shared, we produced significant and stable cash flow, pay growing dividend and buy back a meaningful amount of shares. Our goal is to return 100% or more of free cash flow to shareholders annually. This year alone, we generated over $700 million of free cash flow and returned a similar amount to shareholders. For fiscal year '23, our free cash flow yield, calculated as free cash flow divided by market cap was over 16%, which is more than 3x the S&P 500.

正如我們一直分享的那樣，我們產生了大量穩定的現金流，支付了不斷增長的股息並回購了大量股票。我們的目標是每年向股東返還 100% 或更多的自由現金流。僅今年一年，我們就產生了超過 7 億美元的自由現金流，並向股東返還了類似金額。在 23 財年，我們的自由現金流收益率（按自由現金流除以市值計算）超過 16%，是標準普爾 500 指數的 3 倍多。

Now turning to our fiscal year '24 outlook. First, let me share more about the assumptions we've made. We believe next year, we'll return to typical industry growth of about 1%. This is in line with the historical average, and we do not foresee any industry dynamics that would change this assumption. Data shows that stimulus filers are now behind us. There are no major tax law changes anticipated and employment has remained strong this year, which is usually correlated to filers in the next year.

現在轉向我們的 24 財年展望。首先，讓我更多地分享我們所做的假設。我們相信明年，我們將恢復到 1% 左右的典型行業增長水平。這與歷史平均水平一致，我們預計不會有任何行業動態改變這一假設。數據顯示，刺激申報者現在已經落後於我們了。預計稅法不會發生重大變化，今年的就業依然強勁，這通常與明年的申報者相關。

We are also assuming we maintain overall U.S. tax market share, but our goal is always to increase share. We expect to continue to take low single-digit pricing as we successfully executed in fiscal year '23. Our customer satisfaction score specific to price for value have remained strong. Additionally, we continue to see value in repurchasing franchised locations and remain committed to our capital allocation strategy with ongoing opportunistic share buybacks.

我們還假設我們保持美國稅務市場的整體份額，但我們的目標始終是增加份額。正如我們在 23 財年成功執行的那樣，我們預計將繼續採用較低的個位數定價。我們針對性價比的客戶滿意度評分仍然很高。此外，我們繼續看到回購特許經營店的價值，並繼續致力於我們的資本配置策略以及持續的機會性股票回購。

As a result, our fiscal year '24 outlook is for revenue to be in the range of $3.53 billion to $3.585 billion, EBITDA to be in the range of $930 million to $965 million. Our effective tax rate to be approximately 23%. And adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $4.10 to $4.30. In summary, we feel great about how we are positioned.

因此，我們對 24 財年的展望是收入在 35.3 億美元至 35.85 億美元之間，EBITDA 在 9.3 億美元至 9.65 億美元之間。我們的有效稅率約為 23%。調整後每股收益在 4.10 美元至 4.30 美元之間。總而言之，我們對自己的定位感覺很好。

With that, I will turn it back over to Jeff for some closing remarks.

至此，我將把它轉回給傑夫，讓他發表一些結束語。

Thank you, Tony. As I reflect on the passing of another year, I'd like to thank our tax professionals, franchisees and associates who embody our purpose every day to provide help and inspire confidence in our clients and communities everywhere. I'm looking forward to all we will accomplish in the next year and sharing our results for the first quarter in November.

謝謝你，托尼。當我回顧又一年的過去時，我要感謝我們的稅務專業人士、特許經營商和同事，他們每天都體現我們的宗旨，為世界各地的客戶和社區提供幫助並激發他們的信心。我期待著明年我們將完成的一切，並在 11 月分享我們第一季度的業績。

Now operator, we will open the line for questions.

現在接線員，我們將開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Kartik Mehta of Northcoast Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Jeff, I know you and Tony both said that you anticipate next year going back to kind of that normalized 1% total growth for tax returns. I'm wondering what do you anticipate in terms of Assisted and DIY changes or growth?

傑夫，我知道你和托尼都說過，你預計明年納稅申報表的總增長率將恢復到 1% 的正常水平。我想知道您對輔助和 DIY 變化或增長有何預期？

Yes. I mean, when we work through our assumptions for the year, we always go through the normal, what do we think about employment, what do we think about potential changes from the IRS, what do we see in trends, by channel. And obviously, it hasn't been a normal year for a while. But as we look on the horizon and anticipate, Employment has been strong. We've seen some general trends in the industry. We are not aware of any potential changes coming from the IRS. And really, those are the things that we put together about what we see the industry doing next year.

是的。我的意思是，當我們研究今年的假設時，我們總是會經歷正常情況，我們對就業有何看法，我們對國稅局的潛在變化有何看法，我們對趨勢有何看法，按渠道劃分。顯然，今年已經有一段時間不是正常的一年了。但正如我們展望和預期的那樣，就業一直很強勁。我們已經看到了該行業的一些總體趨勢。我們不知道國稅局有任何潛在的變化。事實上，這些是我們總結的關於我們認為該行業明年會做什麼的事情。

If you want to add anything, Tony?

如果你想補充什麼，托尼？

Yes. I mean your question about Assisted versus DIY, Kartik. I think we believe Assisted is going to be fairly flat even though we had an unusual year in DIY this year, we think over the long term, DIY continues to grow a couple percent. So probably a slight migration from Assisted to DIY.

是的。我的意思是你關於輔助與 DIY 的問題，Kartik。我認為我們相信輔助將相當平穩，儘管今年我們在 DIY 方面經歷了不尋常的一年，但我們認為從長遠來看，DIY 會繼續增長幾個百分點。所以可能會稍微從輔助遷移到 DIY。

And then, Jeff or Tony, obviously, you've been returning a lot of capital to shareholders. You had a 10% dividend growth this year. Was the dividend increase this year unusual? Is that something that -- would it be sustainable?

然後，傑夫或託尼，顯然，你們已經向股東返還了大量資本。今年您的股息增長了 10%。今年股息增加是否異常？這是可持續的嗎？

Yes, I can take it. I think it's definitely sustainable. I mean we talked about our adjusted EPS growing 9%. We raised the dividend 10%, so essentially in line. Obviously, it's a bigger dividend increase than we've been doing over the last few years, even though we've been increasing the dividend. I think all else being equal -- we prefer to do share buybacks, given the flexibility and the advantage we can take when we see volatility in the stock price.

是的，我可以接受。我認為這絕對是可持續的。我的意思是我們談到調整後每股收益增長 9%。我們將股息提高了 10%，因此基本符合預期。顯然，儘管我們一直在增加股息，但股息增幅比我們過去幾年的增幅更大。我認為在其他條件相同的情況下，考慮到當我們看到股價波動時我們可以採取的靈活性和優勢，我們更願意進行股票回購。

But the fact that we can buyback shares, which is obviously reducing shares outstanding and as I mentioned in my opening comments, we've actually been reducing dividends paid in total amount. So even though we've been increasing the dividend and even this amount going up 10% this year, I think you'll see dividend dollars being flat to even slightly down which, as I mentioned, is creating that nice flywheel effect, which we think is very beneficial for shareholders.

但事實上，我們可以回購股票，這顯然會減少流通股，正如我在開場白中提到的，我們實際上一直在減少支付的股息總額。因此，儘管我們一直在增加股息，甚至今年這個數額增加了 10%，但我認為你會看到股息美元持平甚至略有下降，正如我提到的，這正在創造良好的飛輪效應，我們認為對股東非常有利。

Our next question comes from the line of George Tong of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬治·唐。

I wanted to dive into some of your market share assumptions for next year. Can you talk a little bit about what you're assuming for share performance in the Assisted and DIY categories? And with a particular focus on the Assisted side, this past year, you had lost some share in the lower income category. What are some internal initiatives to help improve that performance?

我想深入了解你們對明年市場份額的一些假設。您能否談談您對輔助和 DIY 類別中份額表現的假設？尤其是在援助方面，去年，您在低收入類別中失去了一些份額。有哪些內部舉措可以幫助提高績效？

George, great question. Thank you. This is Jeff. I'll kick us off. Yes, I think the starting point is the clarity about what happened this year. We talked on the last call about the 3 reasons why we lost business and Assisted this year. The low income filers, EITC in particular, being a real focus for the teams as we prepare for next year. In simple terms, we think we have to do a better job of communicating our value proposition earlier in the year when those consumers are most in the market looking for their refunds. And I feel good as we sit here in August that the teams are very clear about what has to happen.

喬治，好問題。謝謝。這是傑夫。我會把我們一腳踢開。是的，我認為出發點是弄清楚今年發生的事情。我們在上次電話會議上談到了今年我們失去業務和協助的 3 個原因。低收入申報者，尤其是 EITC，是我們為明年做準備時團隊真正關注的焦點。簡而言之，我們認為我們必須在今年早些時候更好地傳達我們的價值主張，因為這些消費者在市場上最常尋求退款。當我們八月份坐在這裡時，我感覺很好，團隊非常清楚要發生什麼。

In terms of looking to next year and our share expectations, as we said in our opening comments, we expect assisted share to be flat, but we're always trying to grow share in Assisted. So it doesn't change our plans. It's just [tempering] our expectations. And in DIY, we feel very good about the 3-pronged strategy that we took this year, and we anticipate being able to continue to improve our performance and take share again in DIY next year.

就明年的展望和我們的份額預期而言，正如我們在開場評論中所說，我們預計輔助份額將持平，但我們一直在努力增加輔助份額。所以這不會改變我們的計劃。這只是[緩和]我們的期望。而在DIY方面，我們對今年採取的三管齊下的策略感覺非常好，預計明年能夠繼續提高我們的表現，再次在DIY方面佔據份額。

Got it. That's helpful. And then there are a number of moving parts in the broader tax prep industry, 2 of which are the IRS' Free File program and generative AI. Can you talk about how internally, if you're doing anything strategically to -- in response to the changing landscape and how you would assess the potential impact of these 2 developments in the space?

知道了。這很有幫助。此外，在更廣泛的稅務準備行業中還有許多變化的部分，其中兩個是國稅局的免費報稅計劃和生成人工智能。您能否談談在內部，如果您正在採取任何戰略性措施來應對不斷變化的形勢，以及您將如何評估這兩個領域發展的潛在影響？

Yes. Yes. Excellent again. So I mean, first of all, we're very excited about the opportunity with Gen AI, and I want to start it there. We talked a little bit in our prepared remarks about this, but -- we have dedicated teams who are absolutely leaning in and building integrations. Given our partnership with Microsoft and OpenAI, those initial 2 use cases, 1 on the expense side, 1 on the customer experience side, obviously, a lot more detail to share as we're ready to make those public specifically.

是的。是的。再次優秀。所以我的意思是，首先，我們對 Gen AI 的機會感到非常興奮，我想從這裡開始。我們在準備好的評論中對此進行了一些討論，但是 - 我們有專門的團隊，他們絕對會投入並構建集成。鑑於我們與 Microsoft 和 OpenAI 的合作關係，最初的 2 個用例，1 個在費用方面，1 個在客戶體驗方面，顯然，有更多細節需要分享，因為我們準備將這些細節公開。

The technology is generally well understood, the customer adoption is not. And so we're very excited to begin that learning journey by deploying 2 very specific use cases. We've identified a number of use cases. And so based on that learning, we see real opportunity for the business in various parts. More to come in detail, but I think the punchline is we're very excited about what it could mean both in cost savings and customer experience and teams are leaning in and moving fast to get ready for the year.

該技術通常很容易理解，但客戶的採用情況卻並非如此。因此，我們非常高興通過部署 2 個非常具體的用例來開始學習之旅。我們已經確定了許多用例。因此，基於這一學習，我們在各個方面看到了業務的真正機會。更多細節還有待詳細介紹，但我認為最重要的是，我們對這在節省成本和客戶體驗方面的意義感到非常興奮，並且團隊正在努力并快速行動，為今年做好準備。

On the IRS Free File option in simple terms, we do not see it as a material threat to the business. We know that there is a real concern about the IRS' ability to ultimately market and support a product like this. The ultimate cost to taxpayers of what that would entail, and we've seen consumers make it clearer that there really isn't a problem here. There are over 30 organizations, tax prep companies and not for profits that are already offering free tax prep. And so we stand by those remarks and are very focused on building great experiences to continue to do what we do. And with respect to Gen AI, like I said, we're very excited about that opportunity.

簡單來說，就國稅局免費申報選項而言，我們並不認為它對企業構成重大威脅。我們知道，人們確實擔心國稅局最終營銷和支持此類產品的能力。這將給納稅人帶來最終的成本，我們已經看到消費者更清楚地表明，這確實不存在問題。有超過 30 個組織、報稅公司和非營利組織已經提供免費報稅服務。因此，我們堅持這些言論，並非常注重打造出色的體驗，以繼續我們所做的事情。至於 Gen AI，正如我所說，我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。

Next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默的斯科特·施內伯格（Scott Schneeberger）。

For my first question, I want to touch upon the revenue guide for next year. Looks like it implies about 2% to 3% growth, which I think is a little bit lower than what -- to which you aspire longer term more to mid-single digits. So I guess the way I'll ask the question is, what do you see as the puts and takes, the headwinds, the tailwinds in this upcoming year that have you a little lower.

對於第一個問題，我想談談明年的收入指南。看起來這意味著大約 2% 到 3% 的增長，我認為這比你更渴望長期達到中個位數的增長要低一些。所以我想我要問的問題是，你認為明年的看跌期權、逆風和順風是什麼，這些因素會讓你的股價下跌一些。

And -- in the second part of it, Tony this is for you is, on your Slide 17, you talked about the assumptions that go with the first full -- 5 bullet -- 4 bullet points are all revenue-related, industry growth, market share, low single-digit pricing, ongoing franchise acquisition. Could you rank order those so we get a sense of what's -- what are the bigger drivers of the revenue growth for next year?

而且 - 在第二部分中，托尼，這是給你的，在你的幻燈片 17 上，你談到了與第一個完整的假設 - 5 個要點 - 4 個要點都是與收入相關的行業增長，市場份額，低個位數定價，正在進行的特許經營收購。您能否對這些進行排序，以便我們了解明年收入增長的更大推動因素是什麼？

There's a lot in there. I'll try to unpack it as I go through it. I mean looking at '24, you're right. I mean our guidance is getting in the range that we've set from a long-term perspective of 3% to 6%. But I think it's a little bit more moderated. There's not a specific headwind that we're looking at, which is contrary to what we saw in '23 as we talked about going into '23, we expected the impact of the Emerald Card related to the rollback of the Child Tax Credit and a number of other things essentially being a headwind that we had to offset.

裡面有很多東西。當我經歷它時，我會嘗試打開它。我的意思是看看'24，你是對的。我的意思是，我們的指導是在我們從長期角度設定的 3% 到 6% 的範圍內。但我認為這有點溫和一些。我們沒有看到具體的逆風，這與我們在 23 年所看到的相反，因為我們談到進入 23 年時，我們預計翡翠卡的影響與兒童稅收抵免的回滾和許多其他事情本質上是我們必須抵消的逆風。

Obviously, we had a very unusual tax season in '23, and we're overlapping that. We think it will return to normal. But obviously, we don't have a crystal ball either. So I feel like we've set the revenue outlook at a place that's achievable. We've also set EBITDA outlook at a place that's growing faster than revenue and essentially set EPS outlook at growing 10%. And I think all 3 of those combined, I feel really great about the outlook.

顯然，我們在 23 年經歷了一個非常不尋常的納稅季節，並且我們將其重疊。我們認為它會恢復正常。但顯然，我們也沒有水晶球。所以我覺得我們已經將收入前景設定在一個可以實現的水平。我們還將 EBITDA 前景設定為增速快於收入增速，並將 EPS 前景設定為增長 10%。我認為將這三者結合起來，我對前景感到非常滿意。

And as we've talked about, to get to more the mid- to higher end of the 3% to 6% revenue range, we have to have the imperatives delivering growth that we're still in the early innings of whether that be from Spruce, growing in services and small business, doing things in Block experience. But even without those, we have a business that's growing top line at a healthy level. We've got EBITDA growing faster, and EPS growing, like I said, double digits, which is incredible, on top of 9% growth this year.

正如我們所討論的，為了達到 3% 至 6% 收入範圍的中高端，我們必須有必要實現增長，而我們仍處於早期階段，無論是從雲杉，在服務和小型企業中成長，以Block 經驗做事。但即使沒有這些，我們的業務也能以健康的水平增長。我們的 EBITDA 增長更快，每股收益增長，就像我說的，達到兩位數，這是令人難以置信的，今年增長了 9%。

And the one thing I said in the opening comments is we're overlapping a pretty incredible tax rate change. I mean we were about 15% ETR in '22. And then in '23, we went up 21%, but to still show EPS growth of 9%, I feel really, really good about. As far as how do we stack rank these things, I don't think in my head, I have that completely clear. I think all of them are additive. I mean, it starts with having healthy client volume in both assisted and DIY. I mean that's kind of the foundation. We then layer on pricing of low single-digits which as we've talked about.

我在開場評論中說的一件事是，我們正在重疊一項相當令人難以置信的稅率變化。我的意思是，22 年我們的 ETR 約為 15%。然後在 23 年，我們增長了 21%，但每股收益仍增長 9%，我感覺非常非常好。至於我們如何對這些東西進行排序，我認為我腦子裡還沒有完全清楚。我認為所有這些都是累加的。我的意思是，首先要在輔助和 DIY 方面擁有健康的客戶量。我的意思是這就是基礎。然後，我們對低個位數的定價進行分層，正如我們所討論的那樣。

The franchise buybacks can drive a point of revenue growth and then that's essentially the key drivers of revenue. There are some other smaller puts and takes, but those are the big ones. But then we're obviously managing our expenses in a way that we can grow EBITDA faster than revenue. And then obviously, the last driver getting to EPS is executing the share repurchase that obviously we've been doing consistently. So -- that's how I think about it. I think there's a lot of moving parts. But like I said, at the end of the day, growing EPS double digits is a pretty incredible feat, and I feel good about it.

特許經營權回購可以推動收入增長點，這本質上是收入的關鍵驅動因素。還有其他一些較小的看跌期權和跌期權，但這些都是大的。但顯然，我們管理開支的方式可以使 EBITDA 的增長速度快於收入的增長速度。顯然，獲得每股收益的最後一個驅動因素是執行股票回購，顯然我們一直在這樣做。所以——這就是我的想法。我認為有很多活動部件。但就像我說的，歸根結底，每股收益增長兩位數是一項非常令人難以置信的壯舉，我對此感覺很好。

Good answer. You covered what I was looking for. As a follow-on to that, what are you expecting for expense inflation? You're obviously guiding EBITDA growth faster than revenue growth. Just technology, labor, rent, overhead, marketing, anything changing dramatically year-over-year there? And how are you thinking about the inflation year-over-year. And you mentioned pricing of low single digits. So just curious what the inflation assumption is on the cost side?

好答案。你涵蓋了我正在尋找的東西。接下來，您對費用通脹有何預期？顯然，您引導的 EBITDA 增長速度快於收入增長速度。只是技術、勞動力、租金、管理費用、營銷，有什麼同比發生巨大變化的嗎？您如何看待同比通脹？您提到了低個位數的定價。那麼只是好奇成本方面的通脹假設是什麼？

Yes. We're definitely assuming inflation. I think it's a little more moderate versus what we had last year. As you know, Scott, our largest expense line item, which is Tax Pro [Labor] is essentially variable with revenues. So no direct inflation impact. But when you look at things like full-time wages of the broader team, we're seeing those moderate in cost relative to work on what they were running in a year ago. We're also seeing less turnover and less people leaving, a little bit less competition in the broader labor market.

是的。我們肯定假設通貨膨脹。我認為與去年相比，情況要溫和一些。如您所知，Scott，我們最大的支出項目，即 Tax Pro [Labor]，本質上隨收入而變化。所以沒有直接的通脹影響。但是，當你看看更廣泛團隊的全職工資之類的事情時，我們會發現，相對於一年前的工作而言，這些成本適中。我們還看到人員流動減少，離職人數減少，更廣泛的勞動力市場的競爭也有所減少。

I think in some buckets like supplies and utilities, we'll continue to see costs go up, but I'm hopeful and we built into our plan at a more moderated rate than what we were running it last year. So I think you'll see inflation. I think it will be a little bit more moderated from what we saw last year. Obviously, we have to do things like I think about what our bonus accrual is and other items as well. But overall, being able to grow earnings faster than revenue is the ultimate goal. And obviously, we've guided to that this year.

我認為在供應和公用事業等某些方面，我們將繼續看到成本上升，但我充滿希望，我們以比去年運行的速度更溫和的速度製定了我們的計劃。所以我認為你會看到通貨膨脹。我認為與去年相比，情況會有所緩和。顯然，我們必須做一些事情，比如我想一下我們的獎金應計額以及其他項目。但總體而言，最終目標是盈利增長速度快於收入增長速度。顯然，我們今年已經做到了這一點。

And one more, if I may, maybe getting Jeff involved here, too, really curious what you saw in the extension season? The impact of California, I know that we're not even up to that deadline yet. But just -- since we last heard from you on a public call, what have been the trends, I assume a little bit better than expected. You did a little bit better than your guide. But just want to -- curious on your comments on this extension season versus last.

還有一個，如果可以的話，也許讓傑夫也參與進來，真的很好奇你在續約賽季看到了什麼？加州的影響，我知道我們還沒有達到那個最後期限。但自從我們上次在公開電話會議上收到您的來信以來，趨勢是什麼，我認為比預期要好一些。你比你的嚮導做得好一點。但我只是想——好奇你對這個延長賽季與上個賽季的評論。

Yes. Thank you. I was feeling lonely, Scott. I appreciate that. Yes. I mean we -- specifically to California and extension seasons, I mean we know that extensions were down generally this year, and we experienced our share of that. In California, we still expect that most volume will come in closer to the deadline of October 15. We are keeping additional offices open to capture volume. But as Tony always reminds me, we're not fully open everywhere. So we're doing what we can to balance the expense side and the revenue side, trying to capture our fair share and grow. But most importantly, I think the teams are focused on just preparing based on the learning for this year to get ready to compete for Tax Season '24.

是的。謝謝。我感到孤獨，斯科特。我很感激。是的。我的意思是我們——特別是加州和延期賽季，我的意思是我們知道今年延期普遍減少，我們也經歷了其中的一部分。在加利福尼亞州，我們仍然預計大部分交易量將在接近 10 月 15 日截止日期之前完成。我們將繼續開放更多辦事處以獲取交易量。但正如托尼總是提醒我的那樣，我們並不是在所有地方都完全開放。因此，我們正在盡我們所能來平衡費用方面和收入方面，試圖獲得我們的公平份額並實現增長。但最重要的是，我認為各團隊專注於根據今年的學習情況進行準備，為參加 24 年稅務季的競爭做好準備。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Michaella Gallina for closing remarks. Madam?

謝謝。現在我想請米凱拉·加利納 (Michaella Gallina) 致閉幕詞。女士？

Thanks, Lateef, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

謝謝 Lateef，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。