H & R Block Inc (HRB) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to H&R Block's Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持，歡迎來到 H&R Block 的 2023 財年第三季度財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the call over to Vice President, Investor Relations, Michaella Gallina. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Michaella Gallina。請繼續。

Thank you, Latif. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to H&R Block's Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me today are Jeff Jones, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tony Bowen, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，拉蒂夫。大家下午好，歡迎來到 H&R Block 的 2023 財年第三季度財務業績電話會議。今天加入我的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Jeff Jones；和我們的首席財務官 Tony Bowen。

Earlier today, we issued a press release and presentation that can be downloaded or viewed live on our website at investors.hrblock.com. Our call is being broadcast and webcast live, and a replay of the webcast will be available for 90 days.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿和演示文稿，可以下載或在我們的網站 investors.hrblock.com 上實時查看。我們的電話會議正在現場直播和網絡直播，網絡直播的重播將持續 90 天。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind listeners that comments made by management may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements involve material risks and uncertainties, and actual results could differ from those projected in any forward-looking statement due to numerous factors. For a description of these risks and uncertainties, please see H&R Block's annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q as updated periodically with our other SEC filings.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理層發表的評論可能包括聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性，實際結果可能因眾多因素而與任何前瞻性陳述中預測的結果不同。有關這些風險和不確定性的描述，請參閱 H&R Block 關於 10-K 表格的年度報告和關於 10-Q 表格的季度報告，這些報告會定期與我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的其他文件一起更新。

Please note, some metrics we'll discuss today are presented on a non-GAAP basis. We've reconciled the comparable GAAP and non-GAAP figures in the appendix of our presentation.

請注意，我們今天討論的一些指標是在非 GAAP 基礎上提出的。我們在演示文稿的附錄中調整了可比較的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 數據。

Finally, the content of this call contains time-sensitive information accurate only as of today, May 9, 2023. H&R Block undertakes no obligation to revise or otherwise update any statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this call.

最後，本次電話會議的內容包含僅截至 2023 年 5 月 9 日今天才准確的時效信息。H&R Block 不承擔修改或以其他方式更新任何聲明以反映本次電話會議日期之後發生的事件或情況的義務。

With that, I will now turn it over to Jeff.

有了這個，我現在將把它交給傑夫。

Thank you, Michaella. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I will share highlights from the third quarter and discuss our tax season performance in context of the unusual market dynamics this year. Tony will share our financials in more detail later in the call. Then we'll open it up for Q&A.

謝謝你，邁克爾。大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。今天，我將分享第三季度的亮點，並討論我們在今年不同尋常的市場動態背景下的納稅季表現。托尼將在稍後的電話會議中更詳細地分享我們的財務狀況。然後我們將打開它進行問答。

As you'll recall, we and others expected this to be a normal tax filing year with the pandemic largely behind us, no new federal programs, a large number of stimulus filers having left the industry and strong employment. Generally, tax return volume was expected to grow about 1%, which is in line with its historical average. But after an initial peak, the industry volume, in fact, declined about 1% year-over-year, which was about 200 basis points below our expectations.

你會記得，我們和其他人預計今年將是一個正常的納稅申報年，大流行病已基本過去，沒有新的聯邦計劃，大量刺激申報者離開了該行業，就業強勁。總體上，納稅申報量預計增長1%左右，符合歷史平均水平。但在最初的高峰之後，行業銷量實際上同比下降了約 1%，比我們的預期低了約 200 個基點。

While we are still analyzing results, we believe a number of factors contributed to this outcome, including more stimulus filers rolling off than anticipated, a decrease in average refund size and an increase in balance due returns, which may have driven low-income filers to the sidelines, and the IRS filing delay in several states, including California, which we estimate to be about 100 basis points of the impact.

雖然我們仍在分析結果，但我們認為有許多因素促成了這一結果，包括比預期更多的刺激申報者退出，平均退款規模減少以及餘額到期回報增加，這可能促使低收入申報者場外，以及包括加利福尼亞在內的幾個州的 IRS 申報延遲，我們估計其影響約為 100 個基點。

As a result of industry volume declines and our own Assisted performance and the impact of foreign exchange, we have updated our full year outlook. Tony will share more detail later in the call, but I'm pleased that we still expect to deliver EBITDA and EPS growth this year despite these headwinds.

由於行業銷量下降以及我們自身的輔助業績和外彙的影響，我們更新了全年展望。托尼稍後將在電話會議上分享更多細節，但我很高興儘管存在這些不利因素，但我們仍有望在今年實現 EBITDA 和 EPS 增長。

Let's dig deeper into our performance, starting with DIY. As you recall, our goal was to return to share growth by increasing awareness that we offer a DIY product, by improving quality and making it easier to switch from TurboTax while creating a customized experience in the product user flow.

讓我們從 DIY 開始更深入地研究我們的性能。您還記得，我們的目標是通過提高人們對我們提供 DIY 產品的認識、提高質量並使其更容易從 TurboTax 切換，同時在產品用戶流程中創建定制體驗，從而恢復份額增長。

We also introduced new innovations like our industry first use of an artificial intelligence that finds tax refunds that may have been missed on TurboTax returns. This multifaceted strategy worked. Through April 30, we grew DIY online clients by 2.5%, with many of them switching from TurboTax. We also improved unaided awareness by 200 basis points, which is a significant move year-over-year.

我們還引入了新的創新，例如我們行業首次使用人工智能來發現 TurboTax 退稅中可能遺漏的退稅。這種多方面的策略奏效了。截至 4 月 30 日，我們的 DIY 在線客戶增長了 2.5%，其中許多人從 TurboTax 轉為使用。我們還將獨立意識提高了 200 個基點，這是同比顯著的進步。

Our online net average charge was about flat. Our largest segment of new clients was Gen Z between the ages of 18 to 25. And finally, our service quality scores were strong. These metrics are historically a good forward-looking indicator and confirm our progress and the prospects of our DIY business.

我們的在線淨平均費用基本持平。我們最大的新客戶群是 18 至 25 歲的 Z 世代。最後，我們的服務質量得分很高。這些指標在歷史上是一個很好的前瞻性指標，證實了我們的進步和我們 DIY 業務的前景。

We also continue to see clients that begin in DIY choosing to upgrade by adding Expert Help with one of our 2 products, Online Assist and Tax Pro Review. Online Assist offers on-demand access to an H&R Block tax expert. Clients can access this help before starting their return or while completing it. And AI is helping us get smarter about anticipating when the client may be struggling and needs this help.

我們還繼續看到開始 DIY 的客戶選擇通過為我們的 2 種產品之一添加專家幫助來升級，即在線協助和稅務專業審查。 Online Assist 可按需訪問 H&R Block 稅務專家。客戶可以在開始退貨之前或完成退貨時訪問此幫助。人工智能正在幫助我們更聰明地預測客戶何時可能會遇到困難並需要這種幫助。

Tax Pro Review provides the benefit of having our tax experts check the entire return for accuracy, ensuring clients get their maximum refund, and then we file the return on their behalf. Tax Pro Review continues to grow double digits, which it has done nearly every year since we launched this capability more than a decade ago. Of course, both Online Assist and Tax Pro Review enabled the client to access one of our tax experts without needing to visit an office.

Tax Pro Review 的好處是讓我們的稅務專家檢查整個申報表的準確性，確保客戶獲得最大的退款，然後我們代表他們提交申報表。 Tax Pro Review 繼續以兩位數的速度增長，自十多年前我們推出此功能以來，它幾乎每年都在這樣做。當然，Online Assist 和 Tax Pro Review 都使客戶能夠在無需訪問辦公室的情況下訪問我們的一位稅務專家。

Now let's discuss our Assisted business. Since I joined H&R Block, we've made numerous changes with the goal of improving relevance and driving growth among clients with greater lifetime value. For example, we introduced upfront transparent pricing, eliminated free Assisted tax prep and eliminated nationwide 50% off promotions, to name a few. These efforts are paying off. And this year, we experienced client growth among each segment above $50,000 in income, with our fastest-growing segment being clients over $100,000 in income.

現在讓我們討論我們的輔助業務。自從我加入 H&R Block 以來，我們已經做出了許多改變，目標是提高相關性並推動具有更高生命週期價值的客戶的增長。例如，我們引入了前期透明定價、取消了免費的輔助稅務準備和取消了全國 50% 的促銷活動，等等。這些努力正在取得成效。今年，我們在收入超過 50,000 美元的每個細分市場中都經歷了客戶增長，其中增長最快的細分市場是收入超過 100,000 美元的客戶。

However, this year, the growth in higher-value clients wasn't enough to offset the volume decline in the lower-income segments. While we'll continue to learn more in the coming months, 3 factors are clear. First, as I shared earlier, we were impacted by the overall industry decline, specifically as a result of very low-income filers, likely stimulus filers who had less than $5,000 in income going back to the sidelines. This group likely made up a little more than 1/3 of our client loss this year. And as we look to the data, it appears they have returned to prepandemic levels, and we believe this headwind is now behind us.

然而，今年，高價值客戶的增長不足以抵消低收入客戶數量的下降。雖然我們會在未來幾個月繼續了解更多信息，但有 3 個因素是明確的。首先，正如我之前分享的那樣，我們受到了整個行業下滑的影響，特別是由於收入非常低的申報者，可能是收入低於 5,000 美元的刺激申報者又回到了場邊。這一群體可能占我們今年客戶損失的 1/3 多一點。當我們查看數據時，它們似乎已經恢復到大流行前的水平，我們相信這種逆風現在已經過去了。

Second, we saw a decline in Earned Income Tax Credit filers. We simply did not do a good enough job attracting them with the right message at the right time. And I know that we can better focus marketing messages on relevant value propositions such as Refund Advance in the early part of the season. This group likely made up almost half of our client loss this season.

其次，我們看到所得稅抵免申報人有所減少。我們在正確的時間用正確的信息吸引他們只是做得不夠好。而且我知道我們可以更好地將營銷信息集中在相關的價值主張上，例如在賽季初期的 Refund Advance。這個群體可能佔本賽季客戶損失的近一半。

And third, the IRS filing deadline extension in multiple states impacted the industry and our volumes. We estimate that the California delay likely made up about 15% to 20% of our volume declines. All of these factors led to about a 3% decline in our Assisted volume. When the fiscal year ends, we'll conduct a full review and make decisions about changes and improvements for next year, but we believe we have a strong grasp on what drove the declines.

第三，多個州的 IRS 申報截止日期延期影響了行業和我們的數量。我們估計加州的延遲可能占我們銷量下降的 15% 到 20%。所有這些因素導致我們的輔助量下降了約 3%。當財政年度結束時，我們將進行全面審查並就明年的變化和改進做出決定，但我們相信我們對導致下降的原因有很強的把握。

Assisted net average charge across the company and franchise offices increased 4% year-over-year as we successfully offset the 2-point headwind due to the rollback of the Child Tax and Earned Income Tax Credits. We feel great about our pricing approach as client satisfaction scores improved, including notable moves in price for value, intent to return and other service quality scores.

由於兒童稅和所得稅抵免的回滾，我們成功抵消了 2 點逆風，公司和特許經營辦事處的輔助淨平均費用同比增長 4%。隨著客戶滿意度得分的提高，包括價格價值、退貨意向和其他服務質量得分的顯著變化，我們對我們的定價方法感到滿意。

Considering refund sizes declined and more clients were balance due, these are especially strong results. Not only did we see the significant growth I already mentioned in Tax Pro Review, but we also saw continued improvement in virtual tool adoption, which enable clients to exchange documents with their tax expert, check the status of their return and approve and pay online. More than 30% of Assisted clients leveraged the virtual tool during their tax prep experience within our company-owned footprint. Overall, the transformation of our Assisted tax preparation business has made more progress this year.

考慮到退款規模下降以及更多客戶欠款，這些結果尤其強勁。我們不僅看到了我在 Tax Pro Review 中提到的顯著增長，而且我們還看到了虛擬工具採用的持續改進，這使客戶能夠與他們的稅務專家交換文件、檢查他們的退貨狀態以及在線批准和支付。超過 30% 的協助客戶在我們公司擁有的足跡內的稅務準備體驗期間利用了虛擬工具。總體而言，今年我們的代辦報稅業務轉型取得了較大進展。

Turning to small business Assisted tax. Volumes were down slightly with the broader industry, but we demonstrated pricing power that drove incremental revenue. NAC increased 5% alongside positive client satisfaction metrics, demonstrating our value proposition versus local CPAs. We are also focused on serving entity clients, which grew 6%. And company entity revenue increased by double digits. We recently launched an entity formation tool to allow small business customers to take advantage of benefits that may come from incorporating.

轉向小型企業輔助稅。整個行業的銷量略有下降，但我們展示了推動收入增長的定價能力。 NAC 與積極的客戶滿意度指標一起增加了 5%，證明了我們相對於本地註冊會計師的價值主張。我們還專注於服務實體客戶，增長了 6%。並且公司實體收入實現了兩位數的增長。我們最近推出了一個實體組建工具，讓小企業客戶能夠利用合併可能帶來的好處。

We're also pleased with the trends in our bookkeeping and payroll services in the early stages of its strategic focus. Our new dedicated internal sales team has meaningfully increased conversion rates, and we feel good about the value we're creating for clients through year-round services. These are strong signals about how we are helping small businesses beyond tax.

我們也對其戰略重點早期階段的簿記和薪資服務趨勢感到滿意。我們新的專業內部銷售團隊顯著提高了轉化率，我們對通過全年服務為客戶創造的價值感到滿意。這些都是關於我們如何在稅收之外幫助小企業的強烈信號。

At Wave, revenue growth was 10% in the quarter. Wave's new CEO has made a lot of progress in his strategic review of the business to accelerate revenue growth and drive long-term profitability. We have already taken initial steps by restructuring the organization, and we look forward to sharing additional detail in the coming months.

在 Wave，該季度的收入增長率為 10%。 Wave 的新任首席執行官在其業務戰略審查方面取得了很大進展，以加速收入增長並推動長期盈利能力。我們已經通過重組組織採取了初步步驟，我們期待在未來幾個月分享更多細節。

In January, we introduced Spruce, our mobile banking platform, to our Assisted clients for the first time. Since launch through April 30, we had 291,000 sign-ups and $288 million in customer deposits. When I view the performance of Spruce relative to the initial launch of today's leading challenger banks, we have outperformed in account sign-ups. However, given our client base, we had higher expectations. Some tax pros were successful in introducing Spruce to their clients, which provides great insight about our value proposition and selling model. But on balance, our tax pro community focused on serving the tax needs of our clients. That being said, Spruce clients are utilizing it to help them be better with money.

一月份，我們首次向我們的輔助客戶介紹了我們的移動銀行平台 Spruce。自推出以來到 4 月 30 日，我們有 291,000 名註冊用戶和 2.88 億美元的客戶存款。當我查看 Spruce 相對於當今領先的挑戰者銀行首次推出的表現時，我們在賬戶註冊方面表現出色。然而，鑑於我們的客戶群，我們有更高的期望。一些稅務專家成功地將 Spruce 介紹給他們的客戶，這讓他們對我們的價值主張和銷售模式有了深刻的了解。但總的來說，我們的稅務專家社區專注於滿足客戶的稅務需求。話雖如此，Spruce 的客戶正在利用它來幫助他們更好地理財。

This season, tens of thousands of users deposited over $100 million of refunds to their Spruce account up to 5 days early, which is a meaningful benefit, especially at a time when every dollar matters. We are also seeing clients make their first purchase at a much faster rate than earlier customers.

本季度，數以萬計的用戶提前 5 天將超過 1 億美元的退款存入他們的 Spruce 賬戶，這是一個意義重大的好處，尤其是在每一分錢都很重要的時候。我們還看到客戶以比早期客戶快得多的速度進行首次購買。

Recently, we launched a new feature enabling clients to easily set up direct deposit within the app with just a few clicks. Thousands of clients have engaged with this new tool. And of those, more than 80% have chosen to direct their entire paycheck. All in all, Spruce demonstrated that it has value to clients and we had important learnings, which are already informing some shifts we'll make moving forward.

最近，我們推出了一項新功能，使客戶只需點擊幾下即可在應用程序內輕鬆設置直接存款。數以千計的客戶已經使用了這個新工具。其中，超過 80% 的人選擇直接支付全部薪水。總而言之，Spruce 證明了它對客戶具有價值，並且我們學到了重要的知識，這些知識已經為我們將要做出的一些轉變提供了信息。

Before I turn it over to Tony to discuss our financials, let me just say that overall, while this was not the industry context we expected and we didn't land what we wanted in Assisted, our DIY strategy was very successful. Tax Pro Review again grew double digits. We attracted higher-value Assisted clients. Small business continues to progress, and Spruce demonstrated signals of its potential. These important wins are a reflection of our Block Horizons strategy and are evidence of the progress we continue to make in transforming H&R Block. Now we are focused on finishing out the year and integrating these key learnings into plans for our next fiscal year.

在我把它交給托尼討論我們的財務狀況之前，讓我先說一下，總體而言，雖然這不是我們預期的行業背景，而且我們沒有在 Assisted 中找到我們想要的東西，但我們的 DIY 策略非常成功。 Tax Pro Review 再次增長了兩位數。我們吸引了更高價值的輔助客戶。小型企業不斷進步，而 Spruce 展示了其潛力的信號。這些重要的勝利反映了我們的 Block Horizons 戰略，也證明了我們在改造 H&R Block 方面繼續取得的進展。現在，我們專注於完成這一年，並將這些重要的經驗教訓整合到我們下一財年的計劃中。

Tony, I'll turn it over to you.

托尼，我會把它交給你。

Thanks, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'll review results from the third quarter, provide additional color on our updated outlook and discuss capital allocation.

謝謝，傑夫。大家下午好。今天，我將回顧第三季度的業績，為我們更新後的前景提供更多色彩，並討論資本配置。

In the third quarter, we delivered approximately $2.1 billion of revenue, an increase of 1.5% or about $32 million to the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by net average charge in the Assisted category, partially offset by lower software sales and a decline in online paid returns during the quarter compared to the prior year.

第三季度，我們實現了約 21 億美元的收入，比上年增長 1.5% 或約 3200 萬美元。這一增長主要是由輔助類別的淨平均費用推動的，部分被本季度軟件銷售額下降和在線付費回報率與去年同期相比下降所抵消。

Total operating expenses were $1.2 billion, an increase of 4.5%, primarily driven by higher field wages and the timing of advertising, partially offset by lower bad debt, legal fees and consulting and outsourced services.

總運營費用為 12 億美元，增長 4.5%，這主要是由於更高的現場工資和廣告時間，部分被較低的壞賬、法律費用以及諮詢和外包服務所抵消。

EBITDA was approximately $910 million, a decrease of 1.3% or $11.7 million for the prior year. Interest expense was $22 million, a decrease of 6%. As we have shared, this savings is the result of the $500 million notes we issued in June of 2021 at about half the rate of those that we replaced, which were paid off in early -- in May of 2022. While we have seen higher interest expense on short-term borrowings, we expect a greater benefit from interest rates while we are in a positive cash position.

EBITDA 約為 9.1 億美元，比上年下降 1.3% 或 1170 萬美元。利息支出為 2200 萬美元，下降 6%。正如我們所分享的那樣，這筆節省是由於我們在 2021 年 6 月發行了 5 億美元的票據，利率約為我們替換的票據的一半，這些票據在 2022 年 5 月早些時候還清了。雖然我們看到更高短期借款的利息支出，我們預計在現金狀況良好的情況下，利率會帶來更大的好處。

Pretax income was $855 million compared to $862 million in the prior year. And our effective tax rate was 24.5% compared to 21.7% last year. We did not execute any share repurchase in the third quarter. Given our narrow trading windows, we have historically executed most of our share repurchases in the early part of the year. In the first half of 2023, we completed $350 million of share buybacks or another 5% of shares outstanding.

稅前收入為 8.55 億美元，上年同期為 8.62 億美元。我們的有效稅率為 24.5%，而去年為 21.7%。我們在第三季度沒有執行任何股份回購。鑑於我們狹窄的交易窗口，我們歷來在今年年初執行了大部分股票回購。 2023 年上半年，我們完成了 3.5 億美元的股票回購或另外 5% 的已發行股票。

Earnings per share from continuing operations increased from $4.06 to $4.14, while adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations increased from $4.11 to $4.20. Note that the only adjustment we are currently making to adjusted earnings per share is amortization related to acquisitions.

持續經營每股收益從 4.06 美元增加到 4.14 美元，而調整後的持續經營每股收益從 4.11 美元增加到 4.20 美元。請注意，我們目前對調整後每股收益所做的唯一調整是與收購相關的攤銷。

On that note, franchise acquisitions are a core part of our Block Horizons strategy and our longer-term revenue growth target of 3% to 6%. We expect to acquire approximately 125 locations per year. Though this year, we were able to complete 195. We will continue to be opportunistic and believe this is a great use of capital.

在這一點上，特許經營收購是我們 Block Horizons 戰略的核心部分，也是我們 3% 至 6% 的長期收入增長目標。我們預計每年收購大約 125 個地點。雖然今年，我們能夠完成 195 個。我們將繼續保持機會主義，並相信這是對資本的巨大利用。

Turning to our outlook. As Jeff mentioned, due to industry volumes as well as the lighter-than-expected Assisted client volumes this season and an expected foreign exchange impact of about $20 million, we are updating our estimates. We now expect revenue to be in the range of $3.44 billion to $3.465 billion; EBITDA to be in the range of $895 million to $910 million; adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.65 to $3.80. And we continue to expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 22%.

轉向我們的前景。正如 Jeff 所提到的，由於本季度的行業交易量以及低於預期的輔助客戶交易量以及預計的約 2000 萬美元的外匯影響，我們正在更新我們的估計。我們現在預計收入在 34.4 億美元至 34.65 億美元之間； EBITDA 在 8.95 億美元至 9.1 億美元之間；調整後的每股收益在 3.65 美元至 3.80 美元之間。我們繼續預計我們的有效稅率約為 22%。

In a year with the industry declining and headwinds from the rollback of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit, including its impact on the Emerald Card, I'm encouraged that we still expect to grow EBITDA and deliver solid EPS growth.

在行業下滑和收入所得稅抵免和兒童稅收抵免回滾的逆風的一年裡，包括它對翡翠卡的影響，我感到鼓舞的是，我們仍然期望 EBITDA 增長並實現穩健的 EPS 增長。

Our longer-term shareholder return algorithm remains unchanged. We believe we can deliver 3% to 6% long-term revenue growth, EBITDA to grow at 1.5x revenue and double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth annually through 2025.

我們的長期股東回報算法保持不變。我們相信，到 2025 年，我們可以實現 3% 至 6% 的長期收入增長，EBITDA 以 1.5 倍的收入增長，調整後的每股收益每年實現兩位數增長。

As I've said, despite year-to-year nuances, the strength of our capital allocation story remains the same. We produced significant cash flow, pay a growing dividend and buy back a meaningful amount of shares each year. We are committed to and confident about driving ongoing value for shareholders with these practices.

正如我所說，儘管每年都存在細微差別，但我們的資本配置故事的實力保持不變。我們每年產生可觀的現金流，支付不斷增長的股息並回購大量股票。我們致力於並有信心通過這些做法為股東帶來持續價值。

With that, I will now turn things back over to Jeff for some closing remarks.

有了這個，我現在將把事情交還給 Jeff 做一些結束語。

Thank you, Tony. While this isn't how we expected the season to play out, I'm pleased that despite the many factors we have discussed, we still expect to grow EBITDA and EPS year-over-year. We're focused on finishing the year strong, analyzing fiscal year results and creating action plans for next year. I look forward to sharing more with you on our next call in August.

謝謝你，托尼。雖然這不是我們預期的本賽季結果，但我很高興儘管我們討論了很多因素，但我們仍然希望 EBITDA 和 EPS 同比增長。我們專注於以強勁的勢頭結束這一年，分析財年業績並製定明年的行動計劃。我期待在 8 月的下一次電話會議上與您分享更多信息。

Now operator, we will open the line for questions.

現在接線員，我們將打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of George Tong of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 George Tong。

You noted that the delays in California account for about 15% to 20% of the volume declines. Can you estimate how much of the volumes flipped from fiscal 3Q to fiscal 4Q and how much of the volumes might flip in fiscal 2024 because of the filing extensions? And then perhaps comment on what the impact from the other states filing extensions could be besides California.

您指出，加利福尼亞州的延誤約佔貨運量下降的 15% 至 20%。您能否估計有多少交易量從第三財季轉移到第四財季，以及有多少交易量可能會因申請延期而在 2024 財年發生翻轉？然後也許評論除了加利福尼亞州之外其他州申請延期的影響。

George, thanks for the question. So for California, that's right, we said about 15% to 20% of our impact. Obviously, that's timing, and about 100 basis points to the industry impact. And based on what we're seeing with filing behavior, we really think that most of that is going to come in, in next fiscal year, frankly, closer to the filing deadline next October. And when you look at all the different states where there has been an extension, the lion's share, that's California, and that's really where we've been focused.

喬治，謝謝你的提問。所以對於加利福尼亞州來說，這是正確的，我們說了大約 15% 到 20% 的影響。顯然，這是時機，對行業影響大約有 100 個基點。根據我們對申請行為的觀察，我們真的認為其中大部分將在下一個財政年度出現，坦率地說，接近明年 10 月的申請截止日期。當您查看所有擴展的不同州時，最大的份額就是加利福尼亞，而這正是我們一直關注的地方。

Got it. That's helpful. And as a follow-up, you mentioned that industry Assisted volume declines contributed to your updated guidance. Can you also elaborate on how market share performance factored into your updated guidance? How did market share perform in the Assisted category versus the overall industry?

知道了。這很有幫助。作為後續行動，您提到行業輔助量下降有助於您更新指南。您能否詳細說明市場份額表現如何影響您更新的指南？與整個行業相比，輔助類別的市場份額表現如何？

Yes. Obviously, with so many unique industry dynamics, we're -- we know our performance. We know industry. We don't know a lot of the whys yet. We're digging into that. But we believe that we lost about 10 basis points of total share in the year. We estimate we gained about 40 basis points of DIY share, and we estimate we lost about 50 basis points of Assisted share.

是的。顯然，有這麼多獨特的行業動態，我們 - 我們知道我們的表現。我們了解行業。我們還不知道很多原因。我們正在深入研究。但我們認為，我們在這一年中損失了約 10 個基點的總份額。我們估計我們獲得了約 40 個基點的 DIY 份額，我們估計我們損失了約 50 個基點的輔助份額。

And again, in the Assisted business, really clear on the 3 reasons. The stimulus filers, about 1/3 of the volume loss. The EITC filers that we think we can do better at with respect to Refund Advance, about half. And then the 15% to 20% of California in timing. And as we showed in the slide in our presentation, that first 1/3, we see those levels going back to prepandemic. So we believe that headwind is behind us.

再一次，在輔助業務中，三個原因非常清楚。刺激文件，大約 1/3 的體積損失。我們認為我們可以在 Refund Advance 方面做得更好的 EITC 申報者，大約有一半。然後是加州 15% 到 20% 的時間。正如我們在演示文稿的幻燈片中所示，前 1/3，我們看到這些水平回到大流行前。所以我們相信逆風已經過去了。

Our next question comes from the line of Kartik Mehta of Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Jeff, maybe on the NAC, you said you gained about 4% NAC on the Assisted side. And I'm wondering, was that partially related to inflation? And as you move forward, what do you think is a reasonable estimate for NAC?

傑夫，也許在 NAC 上，你說你在輔助方面獲得了大約 4% 的 NAC。我想知道，這部分與通貨膨脹有關嗎？隨著您的前進，您認為 NAC 的合理估計是多少？

Yes. Great question, Kartik. So that -- this year, that 4% was almost all price. And as we talk every year, we're paying very close attention to the macro environment, how much we think we can move and what the customer tells us in feedback. So this year, we feel especially good about the 4% in light of the fact that obviously, inflation was much higher. And given the refund dynamics where fewer people got to refund, more people switch to [bal due], the customer told us we delivered great value. And so we saw that show up in several metrics.

是的。好問題，Kartik。所以 - 今年，那 4% 幾乎是所有價格。在我們每年談話時，我們都非常關注宏觀環境、我們認為我們可以移動多少以及客戶在反饋中告訴我們的內容。所以今年，我們對 4% 的通脹率感到特別滿意，因為很明顯，通脹要高得多。鑑於退款動態，越來越少的人需要退款，更多的人轉向 [bal due]，客戶告訴我們我們提供了巨大的價值。因此，我們在幾個指標中看到了這一點。

So I don't want to sit here today and predict what NAC might be next year. We'll obviously factor all that in. And as we get ready to launch, talk about what price we think we can take next year. But we do feel good given what we're seeing from the client and the quality and value we're delivering that we can take low single-digit increases.

所以我不想今天坐在這裡預測明年的 NAC。我們顯然會考慮所有這些因素。當我們準備推出時，談談我們認為明年可以接受的價格。但考慮到我們從客戶那裡看到的以及我們提供的質量和價值，我們確實感覺很好，我們可以實現低個位數的增長。

And then, Jeff, was there much of a difference in terms of performance from company-owned stores versus franchise stores in terms of volume?

然後，Jeff，就銷量而言，公司直營店與特許經營店的業績有很大差異嗎？

No, not -- there really wasn't. I think the 3 macro things we talked about that impacted volume, the stimulus filers, the EITC filers and the timing in California, those things really applied across the system, company and franchise.

不，不——真的沒有。我認為我們討論的 3 件宏觀事情影響了數量，刺激申報者、EITC 申報者和加利福尼亞的時機，這些東西真正適用於整個系統、公司和特許經營權。

Yes. The only thing I would call out, Kartik, is as you look on the volume table, it's actually in the appendix slides or the presentation that we've uploaded. You will see company looking a lot better. That's largely due to the franchise buybacks as we obviously buy franchise locations. Those are not reported as company locations as well as the return showing up on that side versus franchise. So that explains most of that dynamic.

是的。 Kartik，我唯一要說的是，當你查看卷表時，它實際上在我們上傳的附錄幻燈片或演示文稿中。你會看到公司看起來好多了。這主要是由於特許經營回購，因為我們顯然購買了特許經營地點。這些沒有報告為公司所在地，也沒有顯示在該方與特許經營權之間的回報。所以這解釋了大部分的動態。

Perfect. And just one last question, Jeff. What do you attribute kind of the shift in share from DIY to Assisted or maybe that's -- just a difference in performance in the 2?

完美的。最後一個問題，傑夫。您如何看待從 DIY 到 Assisted 的份額轉變，或者這可能只是 2 的表現差異？

Yes. That is definitely a question that we've got more work to do to understand better. Obviously, we see what's happened. We have an understanding of our performance. But as we hear competitors talk about their performance, we get later in the summer and see broadly what happened competitively, I think that will help us understand more about the why. It's obviously a dynamic that we haven't seen for a long time, and there's a lot more learning there.

是的。這絕對是一個我們需要做更多工作才能更好地理解的問題。顯然，我們看到發生了什麼。我們了解我們的表現。但是當我們聽到競爭對手談論他們的表現時，我們會在夏季晚些時候看到競爭中發生的廣泛情況，我認為這將幫助我們更多地了解原因。這顯然是一種我們很久沒有看到的動態，而且還有很多值得學習的東西。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer & Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Co. 的 Scott Schneeberger。

Jeff, you may have the same response to this question as you just had to Kartik's. But where do you think the share went in Assisted? Do you think it was a rise in your and your competitors' digital Assisted that maybe took share within the industry this year?

傑夫，您對這個問題的回答可能與您剛才對 Kartik 的回答相同。但是你認為輔助的份額在哪裡？您認為今年可能在行業內佔有一席之地的是您和您的競爭對手的數字輔助產品的增長嗎？

Yes. I don't want to just say repeat what I said to Kartik, but I think we just don't understand all the why yet. We don't know any competitive information at this point. We'll obviously hear more when Turbo announces in a couple of weeks what they saw and what they experience. But at this point, we just don't know where share may have gone.

是的。我不想只是重複我對 Kartik 說過的話，但我認為我們還不明白所有的原因。我們目前不知道任何競爭信息。當 Turbo 在幾週後宣布他們的所見所聞時，我們顯然會聽到更多消息。但在這一點上，我們只是不知道份額可能去了哪裡。

Tony, anything you'd add or...

托尼，你要添加的任何內容或...

Well, when we look at the type of clients, Scott, that we've lost, which we talked about, the stimulus-related filers, we define them as less than $5,000 of income, EITC-related filers, and obviously, California just purely timing, we have a hard time believing that they left to go pay the same or higher price at a competitor. We believe stimulus -- a lot of them probably back to the sidelines. So based on the data that we've looked at, it doesn't seem like it's an impact on all in our performance.

好吧，斯科特，當我們看到我們失去的客戶類型時，我們談到過，與刺激相關的申報者，我們將他們定義為收入低於 5,000 美元的 EITC 相關申報者，顯然，加利福尼亞只是純粹是時機，我們很難相信他們離開是為了向競爭對手支付相同或更高的價格。我們相信刺激措施——其中很多可能會回到場邊。因此，根據我們查看的數據，它似乎並沒有對我們的所有性能產生影響。

To you and Kartik's question about market share, it's hard to understand the DIY and assisting dynamics. We focus frankly more this year on total, so I think it's just a clear story. And there's clearly something that's unusual. I mean I don't know if the DIY categories ever declined, and to see it declining 2% is obviously unusual.

對於你和 Kartik 關於市場份額的問題，很難理解 DIY 和輔助動力。坦率地說，我們今年更多地關注總數，所以我認為這只是一個清晰的故事。顯然有一些不尋常的東西。我的意思是我不知道 DIY 類別是否曾經下降過，看到它下降 2% 顯然是不尋常的。

Our online business grew 2.5%. So we had really good performance, but we know that there are some other factors at play. But when we look at our own data, it doesn't appear that we are -- the type of clients we're losing would be going to a digital competitor.

我們的在線業務增長了 2.5%。所以我們的表現非常好，但我們知道還有其他一些因素在起作用。但是，當我們查看自己的數據時，我們似乎並沒有——我們正在失去的客戶類型會流向數字競爭對手。

I appreciate you guys. That was some helpful information. I know -- I understand it's early, and we need to hear more. Following up there, the -- you mentioned timing of marketing was a bit of a headwind this year. Could you elaborate on that?

我很感激你們。那是一些有用的信息。我知道 - 我知道現在還早，我們需要聽到更多。在那之後，你提到今年的營銷時機有點不利。你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes. So specifically, when we look at those 3 reasons why we lost Assisted volume, that second reason about the EITC filer in particular, when we look at not just timing, Scott, we actually spent more money this year year-over-year in Refund Advance, but I just don't think we did as good a job as we can in connecting that value proposition to that filer.

是的。因此，具體來說，當我們查看我們失去輔助量的這 3 個原因時，特別是關於 EITC 申報者的第二個原因，當我們不僅看時間，斯科特，實際上我們今年在退款上比去年同期花費了更多的錢前進，但我只是認為我們在將該價值主張與該文件管理器聯繫起來方面做得不夠好。

We also know that we lost to people who offer a larger Refund Advance size that may come with interest or fees, and it's mattered a lot to us to keep our product interest- and fee-free. But we know we did lose some to those kind of competitors, and I think that just explains so much about the state of the consumer early in the year and how badly they needed to get access to cash.

我們還知道，我們輸給了那些提供更大金額的 Refund Advance 的人，這些人可能會帶來利息或費用，因此保持我們的產品免息和免費用對我們來說非常重要。但我們知道我們確實輸給了那些類型的競爭對手，我認為這很好地解釋了年初消費者的狀況以及他們多麼需要獲得現金。

And kind of as a follow-on to that, Jeff, you guys called out that there were a lot of people that may have received a refund, I think it was $2.5 million to $3 million. I'd have to go back and look just to the IRS data. But people who received a refund last year who did not receive a refund this year, how detrimental to you was that of not being able to perhaps offer an additional product to some of those folks? And is that quantified? And where would we see that appear in the income statement?

作為後續行動，傑夫，你們大聲說有很多人可能已經收到退款，我認為是 250 萬到 300 萬美元。我不得不回去看看美國國稅局的數據。但是那些去年收到退款而今年沒有收到退款的人，如果不能向其中一些人提供額外的產品，對你有多大的不利影響？這是量化的嗎？我們會在哪裡看到它出現在損益表中？

Yes. We don't break that out specifically, but I can tell you in our own business, we saw customers that in the moment learned the status of the refund and decided not to file. We know that from sitting across the table from them, but I can't quantify exactly how many that is.

是的。我們沒有具體說明這一點，但我可以在我們自己的業務中告訴你，我們看到客戶在了解退款狀態的那一刻決定不申請。我們坐在他們對面就知道這一點，但我無法準確量化有多少。

The one place that it does show up a little bit, Scott, is in the Refund Transfer line. That's how customers pay for tax prep taking out of the refund. And if you're not getting the refund, you obviously can't pay that way. So given the number of refund customers down is impacted, we also believe that some customers didn't take that product because their refund was lower. When you're kind of playing with house money a little bit and you're getting a larger refund, I think clients are more willing to take some of those products. And this year, we did see a reduction in product attached kind of across the board. And I think it is connected back to not only how many were getting refunds, but the size of the refunds being lower.

斯科特，它確實出現了一點的地方是在退款轉賬行中。這就是客戶從退款中支付稅金的方式。如果你沒有得到退款，你顯然不能那樣付款。因此，鑑於退款客戶數量下降受到影響，我們還認為一些客戶沒有購買該產品是因為他們的退款較低。當你稍微花點錢玩，而且你得到了更多的退款時，我認為客戶更願意接受其中的一些產品。而今年，我們確實看到了產品附加種類的全面減少。我認為這不僅與獲得退款的人數有關，還與退款金額較低有關。

One more, if I could sneak it in. Impressive that you grew in DIY, and that was good. You had some marketing there, so it shows it was effective. But in the demographic that you cited, that's a lower revenue generating often a free product demographic. It's great that you captured them, and the goal would be to retain them. But am I right in that assessment? Can you kind of bifurcate your DIY paid versus your DIY not paid?

還有一個，如果我能偷偷帶進去的話。令人印象深刻的是你在 DIY 中成長，這很好。你在那裡進行了一些營銷，所以它表明它是有效的。但在你引用的人口統計中，這是一個較低的收入，通常是免費產品人口統計。很高興你抓住了他們，我們的目標是留住他們。但我的評估是否正確？你能把你的 DIY 付費和你的 DIY 分開嗎？

You're exactly right. Attracting a Gen Z customer is valuable to the brand over time despite the fact that many of them start for free this year. We don't actively try to look for clients who are necessarily just free or paid, but we did intentionally want to start attracting a younger demographic into the brand. Just like in the Assisted business, we've intentionally been trying to migrate to higher-value clients in terms of lifetime value. So those are intentional goals, and your instinct is right that they tend to start free.

你完全正確。隨著時間的推移，吸引 Z 世代客戶對品牌來說很有價值，儘管他們中的許多人今年都是免費開始的。我們不會積極嘗試尋找必然只是免費或付費的客戶，但我們確實有意開始吸引更年輕的人群加入該品牌。就像在輔助業務中一樣，我們一直在有意嘗試在生命週期價值方面遷移到更高價值的客戶。所以這些是有意的目標，你的直覺是正確的，它們往往是免費的。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Michaella Gallina for closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在想把會議轉回 Michaella Gallina 作閉幕詞。

Thanks, Latif, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. This concludes our third quarter fiscal 2023 earnings conference call.

謝謝 Latif，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們的 2023 財年第三季度收益電話會議到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。