漢威聯合 (HON) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Sean Meakim。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis.

早安，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是執行長 Vimal Kapur；資深副總裁兼財務長 Greg Lewis。

This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website.

此網路廣播和簡報資料（包括非公認會計原則調節表）可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。我們會不時在本網站上發布投資者可能感興趣或重要的新資訊。

Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings.

我們今天的討論包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們對世界和我們今天所看到的業務的最佳看法，並受到風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們在SEC 文件中描述的風險和不確定性。

This morning, we will review our financial results for the third quarter, share our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2023 and provide some preliminary thoughts on 2024. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end.

今天早上，我們將回顧第三季度的財務業績，分享我們對第四季度和2023 年全年的指導，並提供對2024 年的一些初步想法。與往常一樣，我們將在最後留出時間回答您的問題。

With that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Vimal Kapur.

接下來，我會將電話轉給我們的執行長 Vimal Kapur。

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on Slide 2.

謝謝肖恩，大家早安。讓我們從投影片 2 開始。

First off, we are saddened by recent events in Middle East. We are deeply upset by the loss of innocent lives. Our #1 priority continues to be safety and security of our employees and partners in the region and responding to their immediate needs.

首先，我們對近期中東發生的事件感到悲痛。我們對無辜生命的喪失深感悲痛。我們的第一要務仍然是確保該地區員工和合作夥伴的安全並滿足他們的迫切需求。

Coming to the third quarter, it was another strong quarter 1 for Honeywell, in which we delivered all of our financial commitments. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.27, $0.02 above the high end of our guidance range. That was up 1% year-over-year or up 7%, excluding a $0.14 noncash pension headwind. Disciplined execution of our rigorous operating principles in the face of ongoing macroeconomic challenges continues to serve us and our stakeholders well.

進入第三季度，霍尼韋爾又迎來了強勁的第一季度，我們兌現了所有財務承諾。我們的調整後每股收益為 2.27 美元，比指導範圍的上限高出 0.02 美元。年增 1%，即成長 7%，不包括 0.14 美元的非現金退休金阻力。面對持續的宏觀經濟挑戰，嚴格執行我們嚴格的營運原則，繼續為我們和我們的利害關係人提供良好的服務。

Third quarter sales were up 2% year-over-year, driven by double-digit growth in our Commercial Aviation, Defense and Space and Process Solutions. Our aerospace business continues to be a bright spot in our portfolio, driving meaningful commercial success. Our already robust backlog grew to a new record of $31.4 billion in third quarter, up 8% year-over-year and 3% sequentially due to strength in aero and other long-cycle businesses. Orders grew double digit in the quarter due to tremendous demand generation in aero, where orders were up 30% year-over-year. Honeywell Building Technologies and Safety and Productivity Solutions ended the quarter with flat year-over-year orders, with book-to-bill of around 1, an indication that we are seeing a short-cycle end markets beginning to stabilize.

在我們的商用航空、國防和航太及流程解決方案兩位數成長的推動下，第三季銷售額年增 2%。我們的航空航太業務仍然是我們投資組合中的亮點，推動了有意義的商業成功。由於航空和其他長週期業務的強勁，我們本已強勁的積壓訂單在第三季度增長至 314 億美元的新紀錄，同比增長 8%，環比增長 3%。由於航空航太領域的巨大需求，本季訂單成長了兩位數，年增 30%。霍尼韋爾建築技術和安全與生產力解決方案公司本季的訂單與去年同期持平，訂單出貨比約為 1，這表明我們看到短週期終端市場開始穩定。

Intelligrated was another positive indicator in the third quarter as we converted on a robust pipeline to drive double-digit year-over-year orders growth and over 50% sequential orders growth. PMT was down mid-single digits on unfavorable comparisons to last year's peak in advanced materials orders.

Intelligated 是第三季的另一個積極指標，我們利用強大的管道推動了兩位數的同比訂單成長和超過 50% 的連續訂單成長。由於與去年先進材料訂單高峰相比不利，PMT 下跌了中個位數。

Our segment margin expanded 80 basis points year-over-year, achieving the high end of our guidance range, led by HBT up 110 basis points. We continue to see business mix improvement due to strong growth in our higher margin aerospace business as well as ongoing gains from productivity. Free cash flow was $1.6 billion in third quarter, with over 100% cash conversion and 17% free cash flow margin in line with our expectations. Greg will walk you through the free cash flow drivers in more detail in few minutes.

我們的分部利潤率年增 80 個基點，達到了指導範圍的上限，其中 HBT 成長了 110 個基點。由於利潤率較高的航空航天業務的強勁增長以及生產力的持續提高，我們的業務組合不斷改善。第三季自由現金流為 16 億美元，現金轉換率超過 100%，自由現金流利潤率為 17%，符合我們的預期。格雷格將在幾分鐘內向您詳細介紹自由現金流驅動因素。

We remain committed to our capital deployment strategy, and we put our robust balance sheet to work in the third quarter by deploying $2 billion to dividends, M&A, growth CapEx and share repurchases. We bought back 5.3 million shares in the quarter, reducing our weighted average share count to 667 million, a step-up due to highly attractive valuation and our ongoing confidence in Honeywell's performance. We remain on track with our commitment to deploy capital to high-return categories and generate compelling value for Honeywell shareholders.

我們仍然致力於我們的資本部署策略，並透過部署 20 億美元用於股息、併購、成長資本支出和股票回購，使我們穩健的資產負債表在第三季度發揮作用。我們在本季回購了 530 萬股股票，將加權平均股票數量減少至 6.67 億股，這是由於極具吸引力的估值以及我們對霍尼韋爾業績的持續信心而實現的。我們將繼續履行我們的承諾，將資本部署到高回報類別，並為霍尼韋爾股東創造令人信服的價值。

As always, we continue to execute on our proven value creation framework, effectively managing through ongoing external difficulties and delivering on our commitments. Looking forward, our consistent adherence to our rigorous operating principles, underpinned by our accelerated operating system, continued strength in our long-cycle end markets and our technologically differentiated portfolio of solution should provide investors with comfort that we will remain highly resilient, perform in all economic cycles and drive shareholder value for years to come.

一如既往，我們繼續執行經過驗證的價值創造框架，有效地應對持續的外部困難並兌現我們的承諾。展望未來，我們一貫堅持嚴格的營運原則，並以我們加速的作業系統、長週期終端市場的持續實力以及我們技術差異化的解決方案組合為基礎，這應該會讓投資者感到放心，我們將保持高度彈性，在所有方面都表現出色。經濟週期並在未來幾年推動股東價值。

Next, let's turn to Slide 3 to review some of our exciting recent wins. Before I hand it off to Greg, let me briefly highlight some recent announcements that demonstrate our innovation across our portfolio. In Aero, we recently won a key new customer in the air transport space that will increase our APU and avionics installed base on roughly 200 new aircraft over the next 5 years. This win helps demonstrate the strength in our aerospace portfolio, regardless of the market condition.

接下來，讓我們轉向投影片 3 來回顧我們最近取得的一些令人興奮的成果。在將其交給格雷格之前，讓我簡要強調最近發布的一些公告，這些公告展示了我們在整個產品組合中的創新。在航空領域，我們最近贏得了航空運輸領域的重要新客戶，該客戶將在未來 5 年內增加我們約 200 架新飛機上的 APU 和航空電子設備的安裝基礎。無論市場狀況如何，這場勝利都有助於展示我們航空航太產品組合的實力。

In energy space, we announced a partnership with SK E&S to deploy our UOP carbon capture technology at a natural gas power plant in Korea. Our technology will help enable the capture of greater than 95% of the carbon dioxide produced in the plant. We remain excited about the win rates across our Sustainable Technology Solutions business as we help pave the way for the world's great energy transition.

在能源領域，我們宣布與 SK E&S 建立合作夥伴關係，在韓國的一家天然氣發電廠部署我們的 UOP 碳捕獲技術。我們的技術將有助於捕捉工廠產生的 95% 以上的二氧化碳。我們對永續技術解決方案業務的獲勝率仍然感到興奮，因為我們幫助為世界偉大的能源轉型鋪平了道路。

Finally, our Forge for Buildings software was recently implemented in One Bangkok, the city's largest integrated district. This partnership with Frasers and TCC Technologies will foster and expanding adoption of our software offerings across business sectors as we support the achievement of sustainability goals.

最後，我們的 Forge for Buildings 軟體最近在該市最大的綜合區 One Bangkok 實施。與 Frasers 和 TCC Technologies 的合作將促進和擴大我們的軟體產品在各個業務部門的採用，因為我們支持實現永續發展目標。

Our core focus as a company continues to be on aerospace, sustainability and automation. Our recent wins are closely aligned to these initiatives and are proof that we continue to drive innovation across our portfolio. We not only see profitable market outcomes, but also position Honeywell to address the world's toughest challenges.

作為一家公司，我們的核心重點仍然是航空航太、永續發展和自動化。我們最近的勝利與這些舉措密切相關，並證明我們繼續推動整個產品組合的創新。我們不僅看到了可獲利的市場成果，而且使霍尼韋爾能夠應對世界上最嚴峻的挑戰。

Now let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 4 to discuss our third quarter results in more detail as well as provide our views on guidance.

現在讓我將投影片 4 上的內容交給格雷格，更詳細地討論我們第三季的業績，並提供我們對指導的看法。

Thank you, Vimal, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Vimal，大家早安。

As Vimal outlined, we delivered another strong quarter in a dynamic macro environment. Third quarter sales grew 2% organically, led by double-digit organic sales growth in Commercial Aviation, Defense and Space and Process Solutions.

正如 Vimal 所概述的，我們在動態的宏觀環境中又實現了強勁的季度業績。第三季銷售額有機成長 2%，其中商用航空、國防和航太及製程解決方案領域的有機銷售額將達到兩位數成長。

Commercial success in aerospace, which drove 18% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, was, once again, a bright spot for Honeywell. Our short-cycle businesses continue to show signs of stabilizing sequentially. Encouraging fundamentals persist across most of PMT's end markets, which led to another quarter of 3% year-over-year growth, despite more challenging comps as we enter the second half.

航空航太領域的商業成功推動第三季年增 18%，再次成為霍尼韋爾的亮點。我們的短週期業務繼續呈現出穩定的跡象。令人鼓舞的基本面在 PMT 的大部分終端市場持續存在，這導致了另一個季度 3% 的同比增長，儘管隨著我們進入下半年，競爭更加激烈。

As expected, our long-cycle warehouse automation business remains around trough levels, which led to overall volume decline of 1% for the quarter. However, excluding SPS, volumes were up 6% across the portfolio. Our backlog remains at a record level, ending the third quarter at $31.4 billion, up 8% year-over-year, driven by double-digit orders growth across our long-cycle businesses.

如預期，我們的長週期倉庫自動化業務仍處於低谷水平附近，導致本季整體銷售量下降 1%。然而，不包括 SPS，整個投資組合的銷量增加了 6%。在我們長週期業務兩位數訂單成長的推動下，我們的積壓訂單仍保持在創紀錄水平，第三季末達到 314 億美元，年增 8%。

Sequential improvements in supply chain constraints led to past due backlog reductions in our short-cycle businesses, while demand continues to outpace output in Aero, a bullish signal of the underlying robustness of that business. And improving cost position and favorable business mix due to significant growth in our high-margin aerospace business, among others, enabled us to expand segment margins by 80 basis points year-over-year to 22.6% and achieved the high end of our guidance.

供應鏈限制的連續改善導致我們的短週期業務中逾期積壓的減少，而航空領域的需求繼續超過產出，這是該業務潛在穩健性的看漲信號。由於我們的高利潤航空航天業務的顯著增長等，成本地位的改善和有利的業務組合使我們的部門利潤率同比擴大80個基點至22.6%，並達到了我們指導的上限。

On cash, we generated $1.6 billion of free cash flow, down 18% year-over-year, due to the timing of cash tax payments and higher net working capital as strong aerospace sales performance drove up our receivables balances year-over-year and we improved collections on our past due balances.

在現金方面，我們產生了16 億美元的自由現金流，年減18%，這是由於現金稅支付的時機以及強勁的航空航太銷售業績推動我們的應收帳款餘額同比增加而導致的淨營運資本增加。我們改進了逾期餘額的催收。

Throughout this quarter, we accelerated our share buyback program, more than doubling the amount of shares repurchased compared to the second quarter. We feel great about the future of Honeywell and believe in our next leg of transformation, and we'll continue to opportunistically buy Honeywell shares at attractive valuations.

在整個本季度，我們加快了股票回購計劃，回購的股票數量比第二季度增加了一倍以上。我們對霍尼韋爾的未來充滿信心，並相信我們的下一步轉型，我們將繼續以有吸引力的估值機會買入霍尼韋爾股票。

Now let's spend a few minutes on the third quarter performance by business. Aerospace sales for the third quarter were up 18% organically, with double-digit growth in both Commercial Aviation and Defense and Space, the strongest growth quarter for Aero in over a decade.

現在讓我們花幾分鐘時間來了解第三季的業務表現。第三季航空航太銷售額有機成長 18%，其中商用航空和國防與航太業務均實現兩位數成長，這是航空航太十多年來最強勁的成長季度。

Commercial Aviation growth was led by strength in the air transport aftermarket, where increased flight activity globally continues to drive demand. Commercial original equipment also grew in the quarter on increased deliveries to both business and general aviation and air transport customers.

商業航空的成長是由航空運輸售後市場的強勁帶動的，全球航班活動的增加繼續推動需求。由於向公務航空、通用航空和航空運輸客戶的交付量增加，商業原始設備在本季也有所成長。

Defense and Space sales inflected in 3Q, growing 18% organically. And orders grew over 30% year-over-year for the second consecutive quarter as we see the impact of increased global focus on national security come through. While the aerospace supply chain remains constrained, we are continuing to see modest sequential improvements, which enabled us to increase our output and convert our record backlog into sales growth.

國防和航太銷售在第三季出現變化，有機成長 18%。隨著全球對國家安全日益關注的影響逐漸顯現，訂單連續第二季年增超過 30%。儘管航空航太供應鏈仍然受到限制，但我們繼續看到適度的連續改進，這使我們能夠增加產量並將創紀錄的積壓訂單轉化為銷售成長。

For example, this was the third consecutive quarter with a 20% year-over-year increase in original equipment and spare shipments. While these gains and outputs are encouraging and leading to sales acceleration, demand continues to outpace supply. This is evidenced by our Aerospace book-to-bill of around 1.3 in the third quarter.

例如，原始設備和備件出貨量連續第三個季度年增 20%。雖然這些收益和產出令人鼓舞並導致銷售加速，但需求繼續超過供應。第三季我們的航空航太訂單出貨比約為 1.3 就證明了這一點。

Segment margins in Aero were flat year-over-year as increased volume leverage and commercial excellence offset cost inflation and mix pressure in our original equipment, as expected. Performance Materials and Technologies sales grew 3% organically in the third quarter, led by HPS, which saw double-digit growth for the fourth consecutive quarter.

正如預期的那樣，由於銷售槓桿的增加和商業卓越抵消了我們原始設備的成本上漲和混合壓力，航空部門的利潤率比去年同期持平。在 HPS 的帶動下，第三季高性能材料和技術銷售額有機成長 3%，該公司連續第四個季度實現兩位數成長。

Process Solutions sales grew 11% organically, driven by continued strength in our projects business and life cycle solutions and services. In UOP, sales grew 6% organically, led by gas processing solutions and petrochemical catalyst shipments. We continue to see robust demand in our sustainable technology solutions business within UOP as orders grew triple digits for the third consecutive quarter, and sales grew at strong double-digit rates.

在我們的專案業務以及生命週期解決方案和服務持續強勁的推動下，流程解決方案銷售額有機成長了 11%。 UOP 的銷售額有機成長 6%，其中天然氣加工解決方案和石化催化劑出貨量領先。我們繼續看到 UOP 內部永續技術解決方案業務的強勁需求，訂單連續第三個季度增長三位數，銷售額以兩位數的速度強勁增長。

In Advanced Materials, sales decreased 8% organically, driven primarily due to the continued expected macro-driven softness in our electronics, chemicals and life science businesses and challenging year-over-year comps.

在先進材料領域，銷售額有機下降 8%，這主要是由於我們的電子、化學品和生命科學業務持續預期的宏觀驅動疲軟以及同比競爭的挑戰。

Sequentially, segment margins expanded 40 basis points, while, on a year-on-year basis, segment margins contracted 50 basis points to 22.1% as a result of lower volumes in Advanced Materials. Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 25% organically in the quarter, primarily driven by lower volumes in warehouse and workflow solutions and productivity solutions and services.

隨後，分部利潤率擴大了 40 個基點，而由於先進材料銷量下降，分部利潤率較去年同期下降 50 個基點至 22.1%。本季安全和生產力解決方案銷售額有機下降 25%，主要是由於倉庫和工作流程解決方案以及生產力解決方案和服務銷售下降。

The project's portion of our Intelligrated business is around trough levels in the current low investment warehouse automation environment, but our pipeline remains robust. And successful execution of our sales strategies resulted in double-digit year-over-year growth and over 50% sequential growth in orders in the third quarter.

該項目占我們 Intelligerated 業務的一部分，處於當前低投資倉庫自動化環境的低谷水平附近，但我們的管道仍然強勁。我們銷售策略的成功執行帶來了兩位數的年成長，第三季訂單較上季成長超過 50%。

Additionally, the aftermarket services portion of the business continues to deliver solid double-digit sales growth. In Productivity Solutions and Services, we are working through the effects of distributor destocking, but believe we are nearing the end of that cycle.

此外，該業務的售後服務部分繼續實現穩定的兩位數銷售成長。在生產力解決方案和服務方面，我們正在努力解決分銷商去庫存的影響，但相信我們已接近該週期的結束。

Sensing and Safety Technologies was also impacted by short-cycle softness, but this business continues to remain relatively resilient. Segment margin in SPS contracted 120 basis points to 14.5% as a result of volume deleverage, partially offset by our continued operational improvements and commercial excellence.

感測和安全技術也受到短週期疲軟的影響，但該業務繼續保持相對彈性。由於數量去槓桿化，SPS 的部門利潤率收縮了 120 個基點至 14.5%，但我們持續的營運改善和商業卓越部分抵消了這一影響。

Turning to Honeywell Building Technologies. Sales were flat year-over-year in the quarter. Our long-cycle Building Solutions business continues to outpace our short-cycle building products. Building Solutions grew 4% organically, led by high single-digit growth in building projects, driven by strong execution, particularly in energy projects.

轉向霍尼韋爾建築技術。本季銷售額與去年同期持平。我們的長週期建築解決方案業務繼續超過我們的短週期建築產品。建築解決方案有機成長了 4%，其中建築專案的高個位數成長帶動了強勁執行力（尤其是能源專案）的推動。

Orders for building projects were also substantial in the quarter, up nearly 20% year-over-year and resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of approximately 1.2. On the product side, sales decreased modestly as a result of relatively soft demand for security products. Segment profit remained a bright spot for the business, continuing to grow as a result of productivity actions and commercial excellence. All in, HBT's segment margin expanded 110 basis points to 25.2%.

本季建築項目訂單量也很大，年增近 20%，訂單出貨比約為 1.2。在產品方面，由於安全產品的需求相對疲軟，銷售額略有下降。部門利潤仍然是該業務的亮點，由於生產力行動和商業卓越而持續增長。總而言之，HBT 的部門利潤率擴大了 110 個基點，達到 25.2%。

Growth across the portfolio continues to be supported by accretive results in Honeywell Connected Enterprise, providing further evidence of Honeywell's strong software franchise across our businesses. Overall organic growth of approximately 20% in the third quarter was supported by strength in connected industrial, connected buildings, cybersecurity and connected aircraft. Orders growth above 20% in the quarter remains a powerful indicator of the continued robust demand for HCE offerings.

Honeywell Connected Enterprise 的業績成長持續支持整個產品組合的成長，進一步證明了 Honeywell 在我們業務中擁有強大的軟體專營權。第三季約 20% 的整體有機成長得益於互聯工業、互聯建築、網路安全和互聯飛機的實力。本季訂單成長超過 20% 仍然是 HCE 產品需求持續強勁的有力指標。

In October, we held the latest installment of Honeywell Connect, where we conducted 29 technology demonstrations to a group of 200 customers. We launched three new products, featured several product enhancements and showcased advanced intelligence solutions using AI and generative AI technology.

10 月份，我們舉辦了最新一期的 Honeywell Connect，向 200 名客戶進行了 29 場技術演示。我們推出了三款新產品，展示了多項產品增強功能，並展示了使用人工智慧和生成式人工智慧技術的先進智慧解決方案。

One highlight from the event was the introduction of a suite of cybersecurity solutions, including Honeywell Forge Cybersecurity Plus, Cyber Insights and Cyber Watch, supported by the acquisition of SCADAfence in August, leading to new sales opportunities in as early as the fourth quarter.

活動的一大亮點是推出了一套網路安全解決方案，包括Honeywell Forge Cyber​​security Plus、Cyber​​ Insights 和Cyber​​ Watch，並在8 月收購了SCADAfence 的支持下，最早在第第四季就帶來了新的銷售機會。

Overall, this was a great result for Honeywell. Our operational execution enabled us to grow third quarter earnings per share to $2.27, up 1% year-over-year on an adjusted basis. Segment profit drove $0.15 of improvement in earnings per share, the main driver of our EPS growth. Excluding the $0.14 pension headwind, EPS was $2.41, up 7% year-over-year. A bridge for adjusted EPS from 3Q '22 to 3Q '23 can be found in the appendix of this presentation with all the details.

總的來說，這對霍尼韋爾來說是一個很好的結果。我們的營運執行使我們第三季每股收益成長至 2.27 美元，調整後年增 1%。部門利潤推動每股收益提高 0.15 美元，這是每股收益成長的主要推動力。剔除 0.14 美元的退休金不利因素，每股收益為 2.41 美元，年增 7%。可以在本簡報的附錄中找到從 22 年第 3 季到 23 年第 3 季調整後 EPS 的橋樑，其中包含所有詳細資訊。

Finally, as Vimal mentioned earlier, we continue to leverage our healthy balance sheet, deploying $2 billion in the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $5.7 billion as we execute on our capital deployment strategy. So overall, Honeywell's operating playbook continues to deliver strong results, and our best-in-class Honeywell value creation framework will enable us to drive compelling growth in earnings and cash for quarters to come.

最後，正如 Vimal 之前提到的，我們繼續利用我們健康的資產負債表，在本季度部署了 20 億美元，在我們執行資本部署策略時，使年初至今的總額達到 57 億美元。因此，總體而言，霍尼韋爾的營運手冊繼續帶來強勁的業績，我們一流的霍尼韋爾價值創造框架將使我們能夠在未來幾個季度推動收益和現金的引人注目的成長。

Now let's turn to Slide 5 to discuss our fourth quarter and full year guidance. At this stage in the year, and given the incrementally more challenging macro backdrop with geopolitics and interest rate dynamics, we are narrowing our full year guidance ranges for sales and EPS, while increasing the midpoint of our segment margin expectations.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 5 來討論我們的第四季度和全年指導。在今年的這個階段，鑑於地緣政治和利率動態等宏觀背景越來越具有挑戰性，我們正在縮小全年銷售額和每股收益的指導範圍，同時提高我們的部門利潤率預期的中點。

Our demand profile remains healthy, with record backlog and favorable orders performance. While we continue to monitor the timing of short-cycle recovery, we are confident in our ability to deliver on our commitments.

我們的需求狀況保持健康，積壓創紀錄，訂單表現良好。在我們繼續監控短週期復甦時間的同時，我們對履行承諾的能力充滿信心。

For the fourth quarter, we anticipate sales to be between $9.6 billion and $9.9 billion, up 3% to 7% organically, driven by continued strength in Commercial Aviation, Defense and Space, Process Solutions and UOP. We anticipate organic sales growth in Aero, PMT and HPT in the fourth quarter.

在商用航空、國防與航太、製程解決方案和 UOP 持續強勁的推動下，我們預計第四季度銷售額將在 96 億美元至 99 億美元之間，有機增長 3% 至 7%。我們預計第四季度 Aero、PMT 和 HPT 的有機銷售將成長。

For the full year, we're raising the low end of our previous sales guidance by $100 million and lowering the high end by $200 million, for a new range of $36.8 billion to $37.1 billion, representing 4% to 5% organic growth for the year. This reflects continued solid execution in our long-cycle business, while we awaited demand acceleration in some of our short-cycle businesses.

對於全年，我們將先前銷售指引的低端提高了 1 億美元，將高端降低了 2 億美元，新的範圍為 368 億美元至 371 億美元，相當於 4% 至 5% 的有機增長年。這反映出我們的長週期業務持續穩健執行，同時我們等待一些短週期業務的需求加速。

Turning to segment margin. We anticipate the fourth quarter to be between 22.9% and 23.2%, flat to up 30 basis points year-over-year and up sequentially as we continue to benefit from improving business mix and our productivity actions. For the full year, we are also raising the low end of our segment margin guidance by 10 basis points for a new range of 22.5% to 22.6%, representing 80 to 90 basis points of year-over-year expansion. This improvement is driven by HBT, SPS and PMT, which are all expected to expand margin.

轉向細分市場利潤。我們預計第四季度的成長率將在 22.9% 至 23.2% 之間，與去年同期持平或上升 30 個基點，並且隨著我們繼續受益於改善業務組合和生產力行動，環比上升。對於全年，我們也將分部利潤率指引的下限上調 10 個基點，達到 22.5% 至 22.6% 的新範圍，相當於同比擴張 80 至 90 個基點。這項改善是由 HBT、SPS 和 PMT 推動的，這些產品預計都會擴大利潤率。

Now let me walk you through the expectations for each segment in a little bit more detail. Looking ahead for aerospace. We're very pleased with the continued improvements in the aero supply chain that are allowing us to capitalize on our record backlog.

現在讓我更詳細地向您介紹每個細分市場的期望。展望航空航天。我們對航空供應鏈的持續改進感到非常高興，這使我們能夠利用創紀錄的積壓訂單。

In 4Q, we anticipate another quarter of strong sales growth, both year-over-year and sequentially in Commercial Aviation and Defense and Space. In Commercial Aviation, we expect most of the sequential growth to come through increased original equipment volumes, though commercial aftermarket will also deliver healthy year-over-year growth, with demand driven by continued improvement in air transport flight hours.

在第四季度，我們預計商用航空、國防和航太領域的銷售將再出現一個季度的強勁銷售成長，無論是同比還是環比。在商業航空領域，我們預計大部分環比增長將透過原始設備數量的增加來實現，儘管商業售後市場也將實現健康的同比增長，航空運輸飛行時間的持續改善將推動需求。

In Defense and Space, we are coming off back-to-back quarters of 30%-plus orders growth, which has bolstered our already sizable backlog. And we see another quarter of double-digit growth to end the year. With our growth momentum from the third quarter carrying over into 4Q, we now expect aerospace sales to be up mid-teens for the year.

在國防和航太領域，我們連續幾季的訂單成長超過 30%，這進一步增強了我們已經相當大的積壓訂單。我們預計到年底又將出現兩位數成長。隨著第三季的成長動能延續到第四季度，我們現在預計今年航空航太銷售額將成長十幾歲左右。

With much of the incremental sales in this upgrade coming from increased original equipment shipments as we capture a greater installed base, we expect Aero margins to be flat to modestly down for the year.

由於此次升級的大部分增量銷售來自於我們獲得更大的安裝基礎而增加的原始設備出貨量，我們預計今年航空利潤率將持平或小幅下降。

In Performance Materials and Technologies, our strong execution and the encouraging outlook in our end markets will continue to drive favorable growth. For the fourth quarter, we expect our typical solid finish to the year, leading to year-over-year and sequential sales growth. Growth will be led by Process Solutions on strength in projects and aftermarket services.

在高性能材料和技術領域，我們強大的執行力和終端市場令人鼓舞的前景將繼續推動良好的成長。對於第四季度，我們預計今年將實現典型的穩健收官，從而實現同比和連續銷售成長。 Process Solutions 將在專案和售後服務的實力引領成長。

In UOP, our growth outlook is supported by robust demand for petrochemical and refining catalysts. The Sustainability Technology Solutions business will continue to grow as we capitalize on legislation-backed demand. For Advanced Materials, we expect continued demand for fluorine products, a rebound in life sciences end markets and an improvement in our Electronics and Chemicals business, supportive of sequential growth.

在 UOP，我們的成長前景受到對石化和煉油催化劑的強勁需求的支持。隨著我們利用立法支援的需求，永續發展技術解決方案業務將繼續成長。對於先進材料，我們預計對氟產品的持續需求、生命科學終端市場的反彈以及我們的電子和化學品業務的改善，將支持連續成長。

For the full year, we continue to expect high single-digit sales growth in PMT. Due to typical catalyst seasonality, we still expect meaningful sequential and year-over-year margin expansion in the fourth quarter, resulting in modest segment margin expansion for the year for PMC.

我們繼續預計 PMT 全年銷售額將實現高個位數成長。由於典型的催化劑季節性，我們仍然預計第四季度的利潤率將出現有意義的環比和同比擴張，從而導致 PMC 今年的部門利潤率適度擴張。

In Safety and Productivity Solutions, our outlook continues to be impacted by the current low levels of investment in new warehouse capacity and distributor destocking. However, the impact on our financials is declining, creating stabilization and signs of potential return to growth in the coming quarters.

在安全和生產力解決方案方面，我們的前景繼續受到當前新倉庫容量和經銷商去庫存投資水準較低的影響。然而，對我們財務狀況的影響正在下降，帶來了穩定，並有跡象表明未來幾季可能會恢復成長。

For the fourth quarter, we expect these effects to lead to sales that are roughly flat sequentially, down organically, but to a lesser degree than earlier in the year. Orders will grow sequentially and year-over-year in the fourth quarter as we build on momentum from this quarter.

對於第四季度，我們預計這些影響將導致銷售額與上一季大致持平，有機下降，但程度低於今年稍早。隨著我們在本季度的勢頭基礎上繼續發展，第四季度的訂單將連續增長，同比增長。

While new warehouse investment remains challenged, customers continue to upgrade their existing infrastructure, which will lead to another quarter of double-digit growth for the aftermarket services portion of our Intelligrated business. For the full year, we now expect sales to be down approximately 20% as the SPS portfolio bounces along the bottom of the cycle. However, the productivity actions and operational improvements we have made this year will still enable us to expand margins solidly for the year.

雖然新倉庫投資仍面臨挑戰，但客戶繼續升級其現有基礎設施，這將導致我們 Intelligerated 業務的售後服務部分再實現四分之一的兩位數成長。由於 SPS 投資組合在周期底部反彈，我們現在預計全年銷售額將下降約 20%。然而，我們今年採取的生產力行動和營運改善仍將使我們能夠穩步擴大今年的利潤率。

In Building Technologies, we were prudent with our posture at the start of the year as we face unprecedented central bank tightening cycle and uncertain demand environment. While the operating backdrop remains difficult, we are encouraged by the sequential order progression we saw each month throughout 3Q, including double-digit products orders growth in the month of September.

在建築技術領域，由於我們面臨前所未有的央行緊縮週期和不確定的需求環境，我們在年初採取了謹慎的態度。儘管經營環境仍然困難，但我們對整個第三季每個月訂單的連續成長感到鼓舞，其中包括 9 月兩位數的產品訂單成長。

For the fourth quarter, we expect modest sequential sales improvement from our 2Q and 3Q levels, with growth continuing to be led by our long-cycle Building Solutions business. The supply chain is improving each quarter, and we expect to make further progress on converting our past-due backlog into sales.

對於第四季度，我們預計第二季和第三季的銷售水準將略有改善，成長將繼續由我們的長週期建築解決方案業務帶動。供應鏈每季都在改善，我們預計在將逾期積壓訂單轉化為銷售方面取得進一步進展。

We're also encouraged by the resiliency we are seeing in verticals such as airports, government and education, and expect institutional demand to provide support amid commercial softness. We project HPT sales to be up low single digits for the year, with commercial and operational excellence, enabling HPT to be our largest margin expander in 2023.

我們也對機場、政府和教育等垂直行業的彈性感到鼓舞，並預計機構需求將在商業疲軟的情況下提供支援。我們預計 HPT 今年的銷售額將實現低個位數成長，憑藉卓越的商業和營運能力，使 HPT 能夠在 2023 年成為我們最大的利潤擴張者。

Now moving on to our other key guidance metrics. We anticipate net below-the-line impact to be between negative $105 million to negative $155 million in the fourth quarter, and between negative $525 million and negative $575 million for the full year. This guidance includes a range of repositioning between $45 million and $85 million in the fourth quarter and between $260 million and $300 million for the full year as we continue to invest in high-return projects to support our future growth and productivity.

現在轉向我們的其他關鍵指導指標。我們預計第四季的線下淨影響將在 1.05 億美元至 1.55 億美元之間，全年的淨影響將在 5.25 億美元至 5.75 億美元之間。該指引包括第四季度 4500 萬至 8500 萬美元的重新定位以及全年 2.6 億至 3 億美元的重新定位，因為我們將繼續投資高回報項目以支持我們未來的成長和生產力。

We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be around 19% in the fourth quarter and around 21% for the full year, unchanged from our previous guidance. We anticipate average share count to be around 664 million shares in the fourth quarter and around 669 million shares for the full year as we continue to reduce our share count through opportunistic buybacks.

我們預計第四季度調整後的有效稅率為 19% 左右，全年調整後的有效稅率為 21% 左右，與我們先前的指引持平。我們預計第四季的平均股票數量約為 6.64 億股，全年的平均股票數量約為 6.69 億股，因為我們將繼續透過機會性回購來減少股票數量。

As a result of these inputs, we anticipate adjusted earnings per share to be between $2.53 and $2.63 for the fourth quarter, flat to up 4% year-over-year. Excluding pension headwinds, fourth quarter EPS growth would be up 6% to 10%. For the full year, we are narrowing both ends of our EPS guidance ranges by $0.05, for a new range of $9.10 to $9.20, up 4% to 5% year-over-year, holding the midpoint of our prior guide. Excluding pension headwinds, EPS growth would be up 10% to 11% for the year.

由於這些投入，我們預計第四季度調整後每股收益將在 2.53 美元至 2.63 美元之間，與去年同期持平或成長 4%。排除退休金不利因素，第四季每股收益成長將成長 6% 至 10%。對於全年，我們將 EPS 指導範圍的兩端縮小了 0.05 美元，新範圍為 9.10 美元至 9.20 美元，同比增長 4% 至 5%，保持在我們之前指導的中點。排除退休金不利因素，今年每股盈餘成長將成長 10% 至 11%。

On cash, we continue to expect to meet our original free cash flow guidance of $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion in 2023, or $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion, excluding the net impact of settlements, driven by stronger collections and inventory management. Higher cash tax outlays in the third quarter will be offset by more favorable cash outlook in the fourth quarter, giving us confidence in our full year guidance.

在現金方面，我們繼續預計到 2023 年將實現 39 億至 43 億美元的自由現金流指導，即 51 億至 55 億美元，不包括在更強大的催收和庫存管理的推動下和解的淨影響。第三季現金稅支出的增加將被第四季更有利的現金前景所抵消，這讓我們對全年指引充滿信心。

So to summarize, we're narrowing our full year guidance ranges for sales and EPS, while raising the midpoint of our segment margin expectations based on our confidence in the ability to successfully deliver results in a fluid operating environment.

總而言之，我們正在縮小全年銷售額和每股收益的指導範圍，同時基於我們對在流動的營運環境中成功交付業績的能力的信心，提高了我們的部門利潤率預期的中點。

Before turning back to Vimal, let's turn to the next page and discuss our preliminary thoughts for 2024. While next year's environment is shaping up to be just as volatile as the last few years, our proven track record of navigating an uncertain macro backdrop should give investors confidence in our ability to execute on our commitments. We have a unique set of operating principles that enable us to move quickly and decisively to drive growth, protect margins, ensure liquidity and position ourselves well to deliver in any environment.

在回到Vimal 之前，讓我們翻到下一頁，討論一下我們對2024 年的初步想法。雖然明年的環境將像過去幾年一樣不穩定，但我們在應對不確定的宏觀背景方面的良好記錄應該會為您帶來幫助。投資者對我們履行承諾的能力充滿信心。我們擁有一套獨特的營運原則，使我們能夠快速、果斷地採取行動，推動成長、保護利潤、確保流動性，並在任何環境下做好交付的準備。

Our end market exposures remain favorable into 2024, particularly in aerospace and energy. We expect continued commercial aviation fleet growth and replenishment, increased domestic and international defense investment amid geopolitical uncertainty, heightened focus on automation due to labor scarcity, increased energy demand and intensifying decarbonization goals, accelerating the need for technologies, enabling the energy transition and increased infrastructure spending. All of these compelling vertical tailwinds, as well as ongoing customer demand to help enable digitalization, give us confidence that all four of our reconstituted businesses will deliver growth next year.

到 2024 年，我們的終端市場曝險仍然有利，特別是在航空航太和能源領域。我們預計商用航空機隊將持續成長和補充，在地緣政治不確定性的情況下增加國內和國際國防投資，由於勞動力稀缺而更加關注自動化，能源需求增加和脫碳目標強化，加速對技術的需求，促進能源轉型和增加基礎設施開支。所有這些引人注目的垂直順風，以及幫助數位化的持續客戶需求，讓我們相信我們重組後的所有四個業務都將在明年實現成長。

The timing of an eventual recovery in short cycle is less certain and will be a swing variable to our sales outcome. We have a strong setup that will drive growth in sales, margin and earnings in 2024 within our long-term financial framework.

短期內最終復甦的時間不太確定，這將是我們銷售業績的波動變數。我們擁有強大的基礎設施，將在我們的長期財務框架內推動 2024 年銷售額、利潤和收益的成長。

We expect organic growth to be led by our long-cycle businesses due to record level demand and backlog in 2023. Additionally, our focus on new product innovation is yielding benefits. We believe extending our success in delivering new solutions to our existing vast installed base as well as the commercial efforts driving greater penetration of our current set of technologies to new markets will help enable robust organic growth. That, coupled with our ongoing leadership in high-growth regions and the strength of our software franchise, gives us confidence in the top line. We also expect supply chain to continue to improve gradually in Aero throughout next year.

由於 2023 年創紀錄的需求和積壓，我們預計有機成長將由我們的長週期業務引領。此外，我們對新產品創新的關注正在產生效益。我們相信，擴大我們在向現有龐大安裝基礎提供新解決方案方面的成功，以及推動我們現有技術進一步滲透到新市場的商業努力，將有助於實現強勁的有機成長。再加上我們在高成長地區的持續領先地位以及我們軟體特許經營權的實力，讓我們對營收充滿信心。我們也預計明年 Aero 的供應鏈將持續逐步改善。

So overall, Honeywell 2024 margins will benefit from improving business mix, continued benefits from price cost and productivity actions, including our precision focus on reducing raw material costs as well as implementing AI into our development and production.

因此，總體而言，霍尼韋爾2024 年的利潤將受益於業務組合的改善、價格成本和生產力行動的持續收益，包括我們對降低原材料成本以及將人工智慧應用到我們的開發和生產中的精確關注。

We will continue our investments in R&D and growth-oriented capital expenditures and remain keenly focused on creating uniquely innovative, differentiated, recession-proof technologies to address the world's toughest automation, digitalization and sustainability challenges.

我們將繼續對研發和成長型資本支出進行投資，並繼續專注於創造獨特的創新、差異化、抗衰退技術，以應對世界上最嚴峻的自動化、數位化和永續發展挑戰。

While we expect our spend on repositioning to be relatively stable year-over-year in '24, we also anticipate modestly higher interest expense and lower pension income next year, both driven by the acceleration in yields across the bond markets we have seen since this summer. That will lead to slightly higher net below-the-line expense. We will provide more information about the year-over-year magnitude of these changes at year-end when we snapped the line on pension, but we anticipate they'll be more in line with normal historical changes, not last year's outsized impact.

雖然我們預計24 年的重新定位支出將比去年同期相對穩定，但我們也預計明年利息支出將小幅上升，退休金收入將下降，這兩者都是由自今年以來我們所看到的債券市場收益率加速推動的。夏天。這將導致線下淨費用略高。我們將在年底取消退休金政策時提供有關這些變化的同比幅度的更多信息，但我們預計它們將更符合正常的歷史變化，而不是去年的巨大影響。

As a reminder, pension income is a noncash item, given our overfunded pension status, and will ensure no incremental contributions are needed. This is a great position to be in for our employees, both former and current, and our shareholders.

提醒一下，鑑於我們退休金資金過剩的狀況，退休金收入是非現金項目，並將確保不需要增量繳款。對於我們的前任和現任員工以及我們的股東來說，這是一個很好的職位。

We expect our cash to grow in line or above earnings next year, with improvement assisted by the absence of the onetime settlement from derisking our balance sheet earlier this year, which had an outsized effect on our cash performance. We're also embarking on a multiyear unwind of the last 2 years of working capital buildup. We will continue benefiting from improved demand planning and optimize production and materials management using our enhanced end-to-end process and digitalization capabilities through Accelerator.

我們預計明年我們的現金成長將與盈利持平或高於盈利，今年早些時候，我們的資產負債表風險消除了一次性結算，這對我們的現金業績產生了巨大影響，這將有助於改善。我們也開始對過去兩年的營運資本累積進行多年的放鬆。我們將繼續受益於改進的需求規劃，並透過加速器增強的端到端流程和數位化能力來優化生產和材料管理。

We see several compelling growth capital opportunities and expect to fund high-return projects through disciplined CapEx spending in the coming years. Our balance sheet strength will continue to give us meaningful capacity for M&A, and we expect an ongoing favorable deal environment going into 2024, which supports our intention to accelerate capital deployment.

我們看到了一些引人注目的成長資本機會，並期望在未來幾年透過嚴格的資本支出為高回報項目提供資金。我們的資產負債表實力將繼續為我們提供有意義的併購能力，我們預計到 2024 年將持續有利的交易環境，這將支持我們加速資本部署的意圖。

Now I'm going to pass the call over to Vimal to say a few words about the announcement we made earlier this month on our portfolio and strategic priorities. Over to you, Vimal.

現在，我將把電話轉給維馬爾，就我們本月稍早發布的有關我們的投資組合和策略優先事項的公告說幾句話。交給你了，維馬爾。

Thanks, Greg. 2 weeks ago, we announced a portfolio reorganization that aligns our business with distinct, compelling megatrends that are shaping the future of our industries and our planet. These are automation, the future of aviation and energy transition, and all are underpinned by our robust capability in digitalization.

謝謝，格雷格。兩週前，我們宣布了一項投資組合重組，使我們的業務與正在塑造我們行業和地球未來的獨特、引人注目的大趨勢保持一致。這些是自動化、航空和能源轉型的未來，而所有這些都以我們強大的數位化能力為基礎。

This realignment will enable us to have a simpler, clearer strategic focus and clearly defined Honeywell's value proposition for our customers, investors and employees. We are an automation, aerospace and sustainability-focused technology company. We believe this change will empower our business leaders to better prioritize R&D efforts, capital expenditures, M&A pipeline, go-to-market strategies and more.

此次調整將使我們能夠擁有更簡單、更清晰的策略重點，並為我們的客戶、投資者和員工明確界定霍尼韋爾的價值主張。我們是一家專注於自動化、航空航太和永續發展的科技公司。我們相信，這項變革將使我們的企業領導者能夠更好地優先考慮研發工作、資本支出、併購管道、上市策略等。

It will also create a more focused framework for M&A, allowing us to pursue bolt-on acquisitions and select disposition that aligns to our teams and enhance our portfolio.

它還將為併購創建一個更有針對性的框架，使我們能夠進行補強收購並選擇適合我們團隊的處置並增強我們的投資組合。

Overall, we have demonstrated the ability to operate under dynamic circumstances, including a global pandemic, large-scale supply chain disruption, heightened inflation, international trade disputes, unprecedented central bank tightening and geopolitical tensions.

總體而言，我們展示了在動態環境下運作的能力，包括全球大流行、大規模供應鏈中斷、通膨加劇、國際貿易爭端、央行前所未有的緊縮政策和地緣政治緊張局勢。

Underpinned by the strength of our differentiated Accelerator operating system, we are confident that we can deliver strong financial performance in 2024. We will provide more specific inputs in our annual outlook call once we close out the year.

在我們差異化的加速器操作系統實力的支撐下，我們有信心在 2024 年實現強勁的財務業績。一旦年底，我們將在年度展望電話會議中提供更具體的意見。

Now let's turn on to the Slide 7, and I will close with some long-term comments. Let's take a minute to zoom out from the quarterly result. As a reminder, my priorities as CEO are, first, simplify the portfolio to better align with the key megatrends that I mentioned earlier. Next, I will drive accelerated organic growth by strengthening our innovation playbook, growing our sustainability and digitalization offerings and maintaining our leadership position in high-growth regions.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 7，我將以一些長期評論作為結束。讓我們花一點時間來回顧一下季度業績。提醒一下，作為首席執行官，我的首要任務是，首先，簡化投資組合，以更好地符合我之前提到的關鍵大趨勢。接下來，我將透過加強我們的創新策略、增加我們的永續發展和數位化產品以及保持我們在高成長地區的領導地位來推動加速的有機成長。

On top of those organic growth efforts, I will manage the portfolio by enhancing our M&A capability, including staying disciplined and executing on bolt-on M&A aligned to these three megatrends. I also plan to advance the Accelerator operating system to create more value through business model optimization.

除了這些有機成長努力之外，我還將透過增強我們的併購能力來管理投資組合，包括保持紀律並根據這三大趨勢執行補強併購。我還計劃推進加速器操作系統，透過商業模式優化創造更多價值。

We continue to make progress on our long-term growth algorithm that we discussed during our May Investor Day. Our 2023 guidance represents another year of strong financial performance, consistent with our framework, following meaningful progress since 2017 through some very turbulent times. We'll continue to carefully track our progression towards achieving our targets and remain confident in our ability to accelerate growth, expand gross margin to above 40%, achieve 25%-plus segment margin and generate free cash flow margins of mid-teens plus.

我們繼續在五月投資者日討論的長期成長演算法方面取得進展。我們 2023 年的指引代表著又一年強勁的財務業績，與我們的框架一致，自 2017 年以來經歷了一些非常動蕩的時期，取得了有意義的進展。我們將繼續仔細追蹤我們實現目標的進展，並對我們加速成長、將毛利率擴大到 40% 以上、實現 25% 以上的部門利潤率以及產生 15% 以上的自由現金流利潤率的能力充滿信心。

I'm thrilled to lead Honeywell into the next phase of our transformation, and I'm optimistic about the tremendous opportunity we are uncovering to capture value, drive incremental sales growth, expand margins and generate more cash. And we'll continue to update you as these efforts increasingly translate into enhanced financial performance.

我很高興能夠帶領霍尼韋爾進入下一階段的轉型，我對我們正在發現的捕捉價值、推動增量銷售成長、擴大利潤和產生更多現金的巨大機會感到樂觀。隨著這些努力逐漸轉化為財務表現的提高，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況。

Now let's turn to the Slide 8 for closing thoughts, before we move into the Q&A. We delivered on all commitments in third quarter. We have and will continue to demonstrate resiliency, while managing through a dynamic macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. Overall, demand generation remains strong, particularly in the long-cycle businesses, with orders up double-digit year-over-year and record backlog levels will continue to support strong results, while we navigate an external environment that remains challenging for the short cycle.

現在，在進入問答環節之前，讓我們先看一下投影片 8 來總結一下自己的想法。我們在第三季兌現了所有承諾。我們已經並將繼續表現出韌性，同時應對動態的宏觀經濟和地緣政治背景。整體而言，需求產生仍然強勁，特別是在長週期業務中，訂單同比增長兩位數，創紀錄的積壓水平將繼續支持強勁的業績，同時我們應對短期週期仍充滿挑戰的外部環境。

Our portfolio is aligned to powerful megatrends, including automation, the future of aviation, and energy transition, all underpinned by digitalization. Our technologically differentiated portfolio of solutions and our world-class Honeywell Accelerator operating system will enable us to capitalize on these trends and drive the profitable growth we outlined in our long-term financial framework. We are expecting a strong finish to 2023 and well positioned for further growth in 2024. We look forward to updating you on the progress as we execute on our commitments.

我們的產品組合符合強大的大趨勢，包括自動化、航空的未來和能源轉型，所有這些都以數位化為基礎。我們的技術差異化解決方案組合和世界一流的霍尼韋爾加速器操作系統將使我們能夠利用這些趨勢並推動我們在長期財務框架中概述的盈利增長。我們預計 2023 年將取得強勁業績，並為 2024 年的進一步成長做好準備。我們期待向您通報我們履行承諾的最新進展。

With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.

肖恩，接下來我們進入問答環節。

Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please open the line for Q&A.

Vimal 和 Greg 現在可以回答您的問題。 （接線生說明）接線員，請開通問答線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just wanted to start off with a question on the fourth quarter margin outlook. So I think you're looking at about 40 bps of margin uplift sequentially, 30% operating leverage sequentially. It looks like PMT perhaps is the segment where you're expecting a very big margin uplift.

也許只是想從第四季獲利前景的問題開始。因此，我認為您會看到利潤率連續上升約 40 個基點，營運槓桿連續上升 30%。看起來 PMT 或許是您期望利潤率大幅提升的細分市場。

So just wondered if you could go into a little bit more detail around that. The margins have been down year-on-year, all year there. So just maybe help us understand what's really changing a lot in the fourth quarter to get that moving? And then just as a very quick follow-up, HBT cross currents this year, you've got a low base as we think about '24, but the interest rate environment is negative. So just confidence in HBT's growth ability looking out.

所以只是想知道您是否可以對此進行更詳細的介紹。全年利潤率都在年減。那麼也許可以幫助我們了解第四季真正發生了哪些變化才能推動這一進程？然後，作為一個非常快速的後續行動，今年 HBT 橫流，我們考慮 24 年時基數較低，但利率環境為負。因此，我們對 HBT 的成長能力充滿信心。

Julian, so I'll take the first one, and I'll pitch it to Vimal for number two.

朱利安，所以我會選擇第一個，然後我會將其推薦給維馬爾作為第二個。

So overall, we've had a great year in margin expansion for Honeywell. And again, we're looking to finish the year at the high end of our guidance range as you've seen. So I think we've continued to demonstrate our ability to drive margin expansion in any environment.

總的來說，霍尼韋爾在利潤率擴張方面度過了很棒的一年。再次強調，我們希望以您所看到的指導範圍的高端結束今年。因此，我認為我們繼續展示了我們在任何環境下推動利潤率擴張的能力。

And as we look into Q4, as you said, we see a nice sequential improvement from Q3 to Q4 and some healthy margin expansion there as well. In PMT, we talk about it often, the margin tends to be somewhat lumpy from any one quarter to the next. A big part of that, of course, is where catalyst shipments wind up during the course of the year and in which end market.

正如您所說，當我們研究第四季時，我們看到從第三季到第四季的連續改善，利潤率也出現了一些健康的擴張。在 PMT 中，我們經常談論這一點，從任何一個季度到下一個季度，利潤率往往會有些波動。當然，其中很大一部分是催化劑在一年中的發貨地點以及終端市場。

And so as we go into Q4 for PMT, we have a pretty healthy UOP mix for sure. And we're seeing also some recovery from some of the challenges that we've had earlier in the year with operations in AM. So that's really the underlying theme for Q4, but we think the teams have done a great job and PMT is on track also to have a very nice year overall with high single-digit top line growth and some modest margin expansion. So we're pretty pleased with where we are going with that. And maybe Vimal, I'll hand to you on HBT.

因此，當我們進入 PMT 第四季時，我們肯定擁有相當健康的 UOP 組合。我們也看到，今年稍早我們在積層製造業務中遇到的一些挑戰已經有所恢復。因此，這確實是第四季度的基本主題，但我們認為團隊做得很好，PMT 也有望在整體上實現非常好的一年，實現高個位數的營收成長和適度的利潤率擴張。所以我們對我們的進展非常滿意。也許 Vimal，我會把 HBT 交給你。

Julian, on HBT, I would say, I'll spend a minute to kind of first go back to what our business model is before I kind of answer your question.

朱利安，關於 HBT，我想說，在回答你的問題之前，我會先花一點時間回顧我們的商業模式是什麼。

I think there are three parts of our HBT business model. First, it is 60% products, 40% solution. And within the 40% solution, more than half is aftermarket. So by very mix, it's a short cycle-oriented business. The second point is the products we have. They are critical to the buildings, and that's why they are higher margin, and that explains our constant margin improvement in the segment. And finally, our exposure in building this combination of real estate, but also infrastructure. And all that put together, explains our results of 2022, where we grew double digits and this year, we'll grow low single digits.

我認為我們的 HBT 商業模式分為三個部分。首先，60%是產品，40%是解決方案。在 40% 的解決方案中，一半以上是售後市場。因此，透過非常組合，這是一個以短週期為導向的業務。第二點是我們擁有的產品。它們對建築物至關重要，這就是為什麼它們利潤率較高的原因，這也解釋了我們在該領域的利潤率不斷提高的原因。最後，我們參與建設房地產和基礎設施的組合。所有這些加在一起就解釋了我們 2022 年的業績，我們的業績成長了兩位數，而今年我們的成長將是個位數。

To your question of 2024, we remain confident HBT will grow per our guidance. Our backlog is growing in our solutions business. And of course, the swing factor remains here in the short cycle position.

對於您提出的 2024 年問題，我們仍然相信 HBT 將按照我們的指導實現成長。我們的解決方案業務的積壓訂單不斷增加。當然，波動因素仍然處於短週期位置。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫圖薩。

So some crosscurrents here at SPS. I mean it's now down to like 10% of your profits. Things seem to be bottoming there. But does the timing of those shipments -- can that business grow next year? Or should we be kind of prepared for another down year there? Maybe if you could just like base out the expectations there for SPS.

因此，SPS 存在一些分歧。我的意思是，現在你的利潤已經下降到 10% 左右了。事情似乎已經觸底。但這些出貨的時間－明年該業務能否成長？或者我們應該為另一個低迷的一年做好準備嗎？也許您可以根據對 SPS 的期望來確定。

Sure, Steve. So you're right. SPS is coming out of the (inaudible) effect of COVID. And clearly, that reflects in our Q3 numbers. But as we mentioned in our earlier conversation, the SPS orders in Q3, we had a book-to-bill of 1. And we see similar trends continuing in Q4, which means we are in a recovery cycle in this business moving forward, starting Q4, and we'll see that in 2024.

當然，史蒂夫。所以你是對的。 SPS 正在擺脫新冠病毒（聽不清楚）的影響。顯然，這反映在我們第三季的數據中。但正如我們在之前的談話中提到的，第三季度的SPS 訂單，我們的訂單出貨比為1。我們看到第四季度繼續出現類似的趨勢，這意味著我們正處於該業務向前在發展的復甦週期中，開始第四季度，我們將在 2024 年看到這一點。

Margin expansion will certainly help there because the volume growth will help in margin expansion. We have re-baselined our cost base, aligned to the new revenue scale. So overall, we should see a recovery from this point onwards.

利潤率的擴張肯定會有所幫助，因為銷量的成長將有助於利潤率的擴張。我們重新調整了成本基礎，以適應新的收入規模。因此總體而言，從現在開始我們應該會看到復甦。

Okay. So that's a growth business with some nice leverage next year is what you're saying?

好的。您是說，明年這是一項具有良好槓桿作用的成長業務？

I think, Steve, the overall top line growth could be flattish next year. But as Vimal said, with -- particularly as the short cycle accelerates, there's a lot of leverage in those short-cycle businesses in particular. So we absolutely will do that. Expect to see that come through. And again, on the Intelligrated side, with the aftermarket growing far greater than the projects business, we should see some nice mix in that business as well.

史蒂夫，我認為明年的整體營收成長可能會持平。但正如維馬爾所說，尤其是隨著短週期加速，這些短週期業務尤其具有很大的槓桿作用。所以我們絕對會這麼做。期待看到這一點的實現。同樣，在 Intelligerated 方面，隨著售後市場的成長遠大於專案業務，我們也應該在該業務中看到一些不錯的組合。

So the timing of that acceleration, as we've said, overall, still is something that we're waiting to see happen, but we've flattened out, bottomed out the orders rate. So it should be coming any time now. And when it does, a lot of leverage comes along with it.

因此，正如我們所說，總體而言，加速的時機仍然是我們等待看到的事情發生，但我們已經趨於平緩，訂單率已觸底。所以它現在應該隨時都會到來。當它發生時，大量的槓桿隨之而來。

Our next question comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

The world is kind of changing and volatile. China seems like it's taken another step down. But can you guys walk us around the world and what you're seeing from a geographic mix perspective? And just a little bit of color on how things maybe changed through the quarter or into 4Q from that front as well. And that will be my question. I'll pass it on after that.

世界正在改變且不穩定。中國似乎又退了一步。但是你們能帶我們環遊世界嗎？從地理組合的角度來看你們看到了什麼？關於整個季度或第四季情況可能發生的變化，還有一點點色彩。這就是我的問題。之後我會把它傳給你。

Okay. Thanks, Scott. I would say you're absolutely right, Scott. There is a lot of variation, how things are working in the world at this point.

好的。謝謝，斯科特。我想說你是絕對正確的，斯科特。目前世界的運作方式存在著許多變化。

Let me start with China. We are going to have high single-digit growth in China this year, primarily supported by growth in Aero, but also in some other businesses, too. We see China to be a similar trend, mid-single digit to high single digit in 2024. We have enough backlog and strength in Aero to support that.

讓我從中國開始。今年我們在中國將實現高個位數成長，這主要得益於航空業務的成長，但也有其他一些業務的成長。我們認為中國將出現類似的趨勢，到 2024 年將達到中個位數到高個位數。我們在航空領域有足夠的積壓訂單和實力來支持這一點。

In other parts of the world, I would say, we see a lot of strength in Asia, in particular, India and ASEAN countries. And Middle East also, given our strong position in energy, positions us pretty well. And then Europe and U.S., probably we all see the impact of high interest rate and challenging environment. So probably we are experiencing the same here. So good balance of positive and negative.

我想說，在世界其他地區，我們看到亞洲有很大的實力，特別是印度和東協國家。鑑於我們在能源領域的強大地位，中東也使我們處於有利地位。然後是歐洲和美國，我們可能都看到了高利率和充滿挑戰的環境的影響。所以我們可能在這裡也經歷著同樣的事情。積極和消極的良好平衡。

But one thing I'd like to add there is, as we see our backlog, which grew by 8%, we also see good orders position forecasted for quarter 4. It's going to position us pretty well for 2024 ahead, in spite of the challenging condition, because we do expect our long-cycle businesses are going to help to drive in our -- the forecasted range of revenue growth for 2024.

但我想補充的一件事是，正如我們看到的積壓訂單增長了 8%，我們也預計第 4 季的訂單狀況良好。這將使我們在 2024 年未來處於有利地位，儘管這是一個充滿挑戰的情況，因為我們確實預期我們的長週期業務將有助於推動我們2024 年收入成長的預測範圍。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe)。

Yes. Sorry about that. I had my mute button on. So Greg, I don't want to put kind of words in your mouth, but I think I heard -- do you see in 2024 as a sort of within the long-term framework of 47, 50 basis points of OEM. Is that sort of what you meant based on what you see today, you may understand a lot of macro uncertainty out there.

是的。對於那個很抱歉。我打開了靜音按鈕。所以格雷格，我不想在你嘴裡說些什麼，但我想我聽到了——你認為 2024 年是 OEM 47、50 個基點的長期框架內嗎？根據你今天所看到的情況，這就是你的意思嗎？你可能會理解很多宏觀不確定性。

And if I could just clarify the free cash flow growing in line with earnings, whatever that may be, should we add back the onetimers this year as the base and then grow from there? Because obviously, $1.2 billion is a big number. And any thoughts on the pension headwind would be helpful as well.

如果我能澄清自由現金流隨收益成長，無論是什麼，我們是否應該將今年的一次性現金流作為基數，然後從那裡開始成長？因為顯然，12 億美元是一個很大的數字。任何關於退休金逆風的想法也會有所幫助。

Sure. Sure. Yes. So again, it's way too early for guidance. Of course, we'll do that specifically in 90 days or so when we announce our full year earnings. So the comments we've been giving is that we see things within that long-term framework. That's a reasonably good barometer for how we're seeing things at the moment. But again, 90 days from now, we'll know a lot more.

當然。當然。是的。再說一遍，現在給指導還為時過早。當然，我們會在 90 天左右公佈全年收益時專門這樣做。因此，我們一直給出的評論是，我們在長期框架內看待事情。對於我們目前如何看待事物來說，這是一個相當好的晴雨表。但同樣，90 天后，我們會了解更多。

In terms of the free cash flow, you're exactly right. We had $1.2 billion of settlements. That's obviously not going to happen again next year. So that's an immediate add back to the base. And then from there, we expect to see free cash grow in line or maybe better with earnings. The maybe around that is really a matter of we expect to start seeing the liquidation of our working capital, but we also have a very robust set of growth projects on capital. And so we're going to be going through our budgeting process here over the course of the fourth quarter, and we may have some good things to put forth from a CapEx standpoint next year.

就自由現金流而言，你是完全正確的。我們達成了 12 億美元的和解協議。明年顯然不會再發生這種情況。所以這是立即添加回基礎。然後，我們預計自由現金將與收益同步成長，甚至可能更好。也許圍繞這個問題實際上是我們期望開始看到我們的營運資本的清算，但我們也有一套非常強勁的資本成長項目。因此，我們將在第四季度進行預算流程，從明年資本支出的角度來看，我們可能會提出一些好東西。

So -- but we feel really good about the progress that we're making in cash flow. Again, this quarter, very nice cash flow number, 100% conversion, 17% cash margin. So we've made some nice progress. One other kind of good anecdotal point, we've started to see aero bring their days of supply down in inventory. So while the number in the aggregate has gone up, they're obviously growing the business in the high teens, but we are starting to see the efficiency and inventory show up. So that's really how we're thinking about it at this stage for next year, but we'll know a lot more in 90 days and be a bit more precise.

所以，我們對現金流方面的進展感到非常滿意。同樣，本季現金流量非常好，轉換率為 100%，現金利潤率為 17%。所以我們已經取得了一些不錯的進展。另一個好軼事是，我們已經開始看到航空航太公司的庫存供應天數減少了。因此，雖然總數有所增加，但他們的業務顯然以十幾歲的速度成長，但我們開始看到效率和庫存出現。這就是我們現階段對明年的想法，但 90 天內我們會了解更多，並且更加精確。

And then on pension, could it be $50 million or $100 million worse. We'll see rates move around a lot, as you know. And as I mentioned in my comments, we snapped the line at the end of the year, but it's trending to be lower income next year, but obviously nowhere near the kind of shock that we had in the 2023 change.

然後在退休金方面，會更差5000萬美元還是1億美元。如您所知，我們會看到利率大幅波動。正如我在評論中提到的，我們在年底取消了這條線，但明年的收入趨勢會降低，但顯然遠不及 2023 年變化時的那種衝擊。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。

Just a question on Advanced Materials. I think it was a little bit weaker than we expected. I think you said softness in electronics, chem and life science drove the declines. I think last quarter, you highlighted electronics and chemicals.

只是一個關於先進材料的問題。我認為它比我們預期的要弱一些。我想你說過電子、化學和生命科學領域的疲軟導致了下滑。我認為上個季度，您強調了電子和化學品。

Just I want to understand what the changes are because I think before you were saying that electronic materials should improve in second half just -- right? I know it's a high-margin business, just what has changed? And how does the business look into year-end? And maybe what kind of momentum you have into next year?

我只是想了解這些變化是什麼，因為我認為您之前說過電子材料應該在下半年有所改善，對嗎？我知道這是一項高利潤業務，但到底發生了什麼事？年底業務如何？也許明年你會有什麼樣的動力？

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Look, I would say, in AM, the fluorine products, the business of solstice is doing extremely well, continues to grow. As applications keeps growing, its geographic spread keeps growing. So that's very positive.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。看，我想說，在AM、氟產品方面，至日的業務做得非常好，持續成長。隨著應用程式的不斷增長，其地理分佈也在不斷擴大。所以這是非常積極的。

Electronic materials have definitely bottomed out. We have seen signaling of recovery from the (inaudible) fab manufacturer. And part of that is seen in Q4. Not as good as we'd like it to see, but we are seeing signals of recovery in the electronics side.

電子材料肯定已經見底了。我們已經看到（聽不清楚）晶圓廠製造商發出復甦訊號。其中一部分可以在第四季度看到。雖然沒有我們希望看到的那麼好，但我們看到了電子產業復甦的訊號。

And there are parts of chemicals which are weak, which is reflected in our overall revenue. And like any other short cycle, we expect it to recover aligned with economic conditions there. But I must say that our conviction in the business is very strong. We had outstanding years in 2021 and 2022. And this year should be seen in comps to the past 2 years.

化學品的某些部分錶現疲軟，這反映在我們的整體收入中。與任何其他短期週期一樣，我們預計其復甦將與當地的經濟狀況保持一致。但我必須說，我們對這個行業的信念非常堅定。我們在 2021 年和 2022 年經歷了出色的年份。今年應該與過去兩年進行比較。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I wanted to ask about Aerospace please, and specifically, Defense and Space, great growth in the quarter, up 18%. What are you seeing from a bookings perspective there, the sustainability of demand with everything going on? And how does defense factor into aero margin mix?

我想問航空航太領域，特別是國防和航太領域，該季度成長強勁，成長了 18%。從預訂的角度來看，您對那裡的需求的可持續性有何看法？防禦因素如何影響空氣動力裕度組合？

Thanks, Sheila. I mean the -- I think our -- one of our -- headline of our Q3 has been Aero, and within Aero, Defense and Space. Our bookings continue to be strong. Q3 was a strong booking quarter, so was Q2. And that's driven by not only the U.S. domestic bookings, but also international defense markets opening up. And we clearly see reflecting that in our booking rates.

謝謝，希拉。我的意思是——我認為我們的——我們的——第三季的標題之一是航空，以及航空、國防和航太領域。我們的預訂量持續強勁。第三季的預訂量強勁，第二季也是如此。這不僅受到美國國內預訂的推動，也受到國際國防市場開放的推動。我們清楚地看到這一點反映在我們的預訂率中。

The revenue growth is driven by supply chain actions, which are now being seen in defense also. And we expect the continued growth in the Defense segment in quarter 4 and 2024 ahead, too.

收入成長是由供應鏈行動推動的，這些行動現在也出現在國防領域。我們預計第四季和 2024 年國防領域也將持續成長。

So punchline is that defense is going to become a contributing factor in the continued area growth, given the overall geopolitical conditions in the world.

因此，有趣的是，考慮到世界整體地緣政治條件，國防將成為區域持續成長的促成因素。

Sheila, this is Sean. On Aerospace, margins, as it relates to Defense and Space, it's not a material drag on our margins. So that growth there is going to be not materially different than the overall margin rate. So we find that to be -- that growth to be quite nice to segment profit growth.

希拉，這是肖恩。在航空航太領域，利潤率與國防和航太有關，這不會對我們的利潤率造成實質拖累。因此，那裡的成長與整體利潤率不會有太大不同。因此，我們發現這種成長對於細分利潤成長來說非常好。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的傑夫·斯普拉格。

Not to get too tied up in arcane pension accounting, but did you guys change something in pension to mitigate the impact of interest rate changes? Certainly nice to hear the headwind is that modest, but my rough math would have maybe suggested a bit more.

不要太糾結於神秘的退休金會計，但是你們是否改變了退休金的某些內容以減輕利率變動的影響？當然很高興聽到逆風如此溫和，但我的粗略數學可能會建議更多。

And then maybe just to add another part. Vimal, you touched on Advanced Materials a little bit in a previous answer. Can you give us a little bit of color on how you see the 410a, the 454b transition unfolding what's happening to 410a prices and availability? And where you stand competitively as these OEMs are making the shift?

然後也許只是添加另一部分。 Vimal，您在先前的回答中談到了一些先進材料。您能否向我們介紹一下您如何看待 410a、454b 過渡以及 410a 價格和可用性的變化？當這些 OEM 廠商做出轉變時，您的競爭地位如何？

So maybe I'll hit the pension one first. So no, Jeff, we haven't changed anything in our accounting. We'll do our normal mark-to-market in the fourth quarter as we've done for many years now. And again, what I mentioned $50 million to $100 million is a range. We'll see how the final numbers pan out with discount rates and returns on assets for the asset bases themselves. So nothing different, and we'll give you a more precise answer after the turn of the year when we snap the line.

所以也許我會先領取退休金。所以不，傑夫，我們的會計沒有任何改變。我們將在第四季度進行正常的以市價計算，就像我們多年來所做的那樣。再說一次，我提到的 5,000 萬到 1 億美元只是一個範圍。我們將看到最終的數字如何影響資產基礎本身的折現率和資產報酬率。所以沒有什麼不同，我們會在新年結束後給你一個更準確的答案。

Jeff, on Advanced Material, I would say pretty fascinating to see how this changeover is happening between Solstice, 410a and 454. We are working with all key OEMs for several years. This is not a new dimension for us. We have been on it for last several years, and we see the switchover happening from 410 to 454 in the times ahead, and we have secured our position with the key OEMs.

Jeff，關於先進材料，我想說，看到 Solstice、410a 和 454 之間的這種轉變是如何發生的，我覺得非常有趣。多年來，我們一直在與所有主要 OEM 廠商合作。這對我們來說並不是一個新的維度。過去幾年我們一直在努力，我們看到未來會發生從 410 到 454 的轉變，並且我們已經在主要 OEM 廠商中鞏固了自己的地位。

So I would say for us is I would call it like business as usual because this is something which is part of our business, and we were ahead of the game here to look ahead and think about its implication on us, and we are well covered on that.

所以我想說，對我們來說，我會像往常一樣稱之為“一切如常”，因為這是我們業務的一部分，我們在這裡領先一步，展望未來並思考它對我們的影響，我們已經得到了很好的保障關於這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Can we double click a little bit on what you guys are seeing with respect to channel inventory reductions within HBT and SPS? Where are we in that inventory destocking process? And do you think we will enter 2024 in a pretty clean position with respect to channel inventories?

我們能否雙擊一下你們所看到的 HBT 和 SPS 通路庫存減少方面的情況？我們在庫存去庫存過程中處於什麼階段？您認為進入 2024 年我們的通路庫存狀況是否會保持相當乾淨的狀態？

Nicole, we have, I would say, the channel inventory is reflected in our orders rate. Our orders rate for both buildings and SPS had a book-to-bill of 1 last quarter. And the similar trends are persisting so far in October, which tells me that we are on a path of slight recovery. And that's an indirect measure for me on channels are looking at stocking back again from the cycle.

妮可，我想說，我們的通路庫存反映在我們的訂單費率上。上個季度我們的建築和 SPS 訂單率均為 1。十月至今，類似的趨勢仍在持續，這告訴我，我們正走在小幅復甦的道路上。對我來說，這是一個間接衡量通路正在考慮從週期中再次備貨的情況。

So -- and we expect short cycle to slightly recover progressively every month moving forward, but not as fast as we'd like it to be at this point.

因此，我們預計短期週期將每個月逐步略有恢復，但不會像我們目前希望的那麼快。

Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

On HBT, you called out cost inflation headwinds. Could you size that? And what kind of pricing actions have you taken? And then on the verticals, airport, government and education, how has government stimulus? Has that started to come through? And are you benefiting there?

關於 HBT，您指出了成本通膨的不利因素。你能確定那個尺寸嗎？你們採取了哪些定價行動？那麼在機場、政府和教育等垂直領域，政府的刺激措施又是如何？這已經開始發生了嗎？你在那裡受益嗎？

Deane, we don't disclose our individual segments price/cost, but if you recall, I mean, we've mentioned that we're going to retain our price/cost positivity. And we've done that inside of HBT throughout the course of the year.

迪恩，我們不會透露我們各個細分市場的價格/成本，但如果你還記得的話，我的意思是，我們已經提到我們將保持我們的價格/成本積極性。我們全年都在 HBT 內部做到了這一點。

So you see the numbers for total Honeywell. I think we're within our zone that we had guided. From a pricing perspective, it's probably going to be 4% for the year across the total portfolio. Maybe I'll pass it to Vimal on the other side.

所以你會看到霍尼韋爾的總數字。我認為我們處於我們所引導的區域內。從定價角度來看，今年整個投資組合的定價可能為 4%。也許我會把它傳給另一邊的維馬爾。

So we do get, I would say, benefit of different government stimulus programs, the recent one being around, I would say, chipset, semiconductor activity in U.S. The proposal activity there is strong. And hopefully, we'll win enough to see the benefit of that in the times ahead.

因此，我想說，我們確實從不同的政府刺激計劃中受益，最近的一項是圍繞美國的晶片組和半導體活動，那裡的提案活動很強勁。希望我們能贏得足夠的勝利，以便在未來的時代看到它的好處。

But I must also point that we also see heightened infrastructure activity outside the U.S., specifically in high-growth regions. One of the strength of HBT business is very strong footprint in high-growth regions, China, ASEAN, Middle East, India, et cetera. And there, the activity on infrastructure build-out is pretty strong, which is going to help us in building out our backlog, specifically in long cycle. So that's how we see those dimensions in the business.

但我還必須指出，我們也看到美國以外的基礎設施活動增加，特別是在高成長地區。 HBT 業務的優勢之一是在中國、東協、中東、印度等高成長地區的強大足跡。在那裡，基礎設施建設活動相當強勁，這將有助於我們建立積壓訂單，特別是在長週期內。這就是我們如何看待業務中的這些維度。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

My one question is just on orders. So nice to see the inflection versus what we -- what you had experienced last quarter. I think Aero is the only segment that grew last quarter.

我的一個問題只是關於訂單。很高興看到這種變化與我們——你們在上個季度所經歷的情況相比。我認為航空是上季唯一成長的細分市場。

I didn't hear the commentary on PMT. So if I missed it, my apologies. But what were orders like in PMT this quarter or maybe specifically for HPS and UOP?

我沒有聽到PMT的評論。所以如果我錯過了，我很抱歉。但本季 PMT 的訂單或 HPS 和 UOP 的訂單狀況如何？

Yes. So year-to-date, I would say the orders rate in UOP and HPS are pretty strong, and we expect to finish very strongly for both the businesses in 2023 and carry forward good backlog for 2024. The wins are driven by multiple end markets in HPS. And UOP is certainly benefiting from strong demand of catalysts.

是的。因此，今年迄今為止，UOP 和 HPS 的訂單率相當強勁，我們預計這兩項業務將在 2023 年取得非常強勁的業績，並在 2024 年實現良好的積壓。這些勝利是由多個終端市場推動的在高壓鈉燈中。 UOP 無疑受益於催化劑的強勁需求。

But also now strong demand coming from sustainable technologies. Our sustainable technology business is growing at triple-digit rate as we had anticipated. And all that is really adding up for strong performance of UOP for 2023 orders.

但現在可持續技術也帶來了強勁的需求。正如我們預期的那樣，我們的永續技術業務正在以三位數的速度成長。所有這些確實為 UOP 2023 年訂單的強勁表現奠定了基礎。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz of Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的安德魯·卡普洛維茨。

So I know you're expecting a nice uptick in PMT margin in Q4, but as you've guided this year, it's tended -- PMT margins tended to be a bit muted for the year. So maybe conviction level that it does jump in Q4. And then I know you're moving HPS over, but pro forma, do you see PMT as one of the better margin performers in '24?

所以我知道您預計第四季度 PMT 利潤率會大幅上升，但正如您今年所指導的那樣，今年 PMT 利潤率往往會有點低迷。因此，也許人們相信第四季度它確實會跳躍。然後我知道您正在將 HPS 移走，但預計，您是否認為 PMT 是 24 年利潤率表現較好的公司之一？

So in terms of conviction level, it's high. I mean I feel pretty strongly about the PMT team's ability to perform here. Again, we're not at a place where we're giving guidance ranges for next year for any given segments. I expect the PMT business, as currently constructed. We expect accretion next year as well. But we're not going to get into any specific guidance ranges around that at this moment.

因此，就信念層次而言，它是很高的。我的意思是，我對 PMT 團隊在這裡的表現能力非常有信心。同樣，我們不會為任何特定細分市場提供明年的指導範圍。我預計目前建構的 PMT 業務。我們預計明年也會增加。但目前我們不會就此提出任何具體的指導範圍。

But our conviction level is high. The team is delivering. They've taken all the right actions in each of the three businesses. And as we said, with a nice mix going into Q4 on catalysts, we expect to be able to deliver the margin accretion in Q4.

但我們的信念程度很高。團隊正在交付。他們在這三項業務中都採取了所有正確的行動。正如我們所說，隨著第四季度催化劑的良好組合，我們預計能夠在第四季度實現利潤成長。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Vimal Kapur for closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉回給維馬爾·卡普爾（Vimal Kapur）做總結發言。

Thank you. Our value creation framework is working. While the macro economy remains challenging and the timing of a short cycle acceleration is uncertain, we are deploying our rigorous operating playbook to navigate near-term volatility. We are confident in our ability to weather near-term challenges and meet our performance targets, underpinned by ongoing strength in our two biggest end markets, aerospace and energy, combined with the operating rigor you have expected from Honeywell.

謝謝。我們的價值創造框架正在發揮作用。儘管宏觀經濟仍充滿挑戰，短週期加速的時機也不確定，但我們正在部署嚴格的營運策略來應對近期波動。我們對應對近期挑戰和實現業績目標的能力充滿信心，這得益於我們在航空航太和能源這兩個最大終端市場的持續實力，以及您對霍尼韋爾的期望。

Thank you all, and our Honeywell colleagues, who continue to enable us to outperform in any environment and drive differentiated performance for our customers and shareholders. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.

感謝大家以及我們的霍尼韋爾同事，他們繼續使我們能夠在任何環境中表現出色，並為我們的客戶和股東帶來差異化的業績。感謝大家的收聽，請保持安全和健康。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。