漢威聯合 (HON) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

感謝您的支持，歡迎來到霍尼韋爾 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （接線員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Sean Meakim。請繼續。

Thank you, Crystal. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings and 2023 Outlook Conference Call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis; President and Chief Operating Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Anne Madden.

謝謝你，水晶。早上好，歡迎來到霍尼韋爾 2022 年第四季度收益和 2023 年展望電話會議。今天與我通話的是董事長兼首席執行官 Darius Adamczyk；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Greg Lewis； Vimal Kapur 總裁兼首席運營官；高級副總裁兼總法律顧問 Anne Madden。

This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Honeywell also uses our website as a means of disclosing information which may be of interest or material to our investors and for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcasts and social media.

我們的網站 www.honeywell.com/investor 提供此電話會議和網絡廣播，包括任何非 GAAP 對賬。霍尼韋爾還使用我們的網站作為披露投資者可能感興趣或重要的信息的一種方式，並遵守 FD 條例規定的披露義務。因此，除了關注我們的新聞稿、SEC 文件、公開電話會議、網絡廣播和社交媒體之外，投資者還應關注我們的投資者關係網站。

Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of the businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings.

請注意，本演示文稿的內容包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們對當今世界和業務的最佳看法。這些要素可能會根據許多因素而發生變化，包括不斷變化的經濟和商業條件，我們要求您從這個角度來解讀它們。我們在 10-K 表格和其他美國證券交易委員會備案的年度報告中確定了可能影響我們業績的主要風險和不確定性。

This morning, we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022 and discuss our 2023 outlook, including sharing our guidance for the first quarter of 2023 and full year 2023. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end.

今天上午，我們將回顧我們 2022 年第四季度和全年的財務業績，並討論我們的 2023 年展望，包括分享我們對 2023 年第一季度和 2023 年全年的指導。一如既往，我們將留出時間回答您的問題結束。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO Darius Adamczyk.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給董事長兼首席執行官 Darius Adamczyk。

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on Slide 2. The fourth quarter was another challenging one with supply chain constraints and inflation headwinds still at play. But Honeywell's disciplined execution and differentiated solutions enable us to deliver on organic sales, segment margins, earnings and free cash flow commitments.

謝謝你，肖恩，大家早上好。讓我們從幻燈片 2 開始。第四季度是另一個具有挑戰性的季度，供應鏈限制和通貨膨脹逆風仍在發揮作用。但霍尼韋爾嚴格的執行和差異化的解決方案使我們能夠實現有機銷售、部門利潤率、收益和自由現金流承諾。

Organic sales were up 10% year-over-year or up 11% excluding the impact of the wind-down of operations in Russia led by double-digit growth in commercial aviation, building products, advanced materials and UOP businesses, a testament to the underlying strength we're seeing across our end markets, particularly in long-cycle businesses.

有機銷售額同比增長 10% 或增長 11%，不包括商業航空、建築產品、先進材料和 UOP 業務兩位數增長導致的俄羅斯業務縮減的影響，這證明了我們在終端市場看到了潛在的力量，特別是在長周期業務中。

The fourth quarter was another strong one for our backlog, which grew to a new record of $29.6 billion, up 7% year-over-year and 2% sequentially due to strength in Aerospace and Performance Materials and Technologies. Orders were also a positive story in Aero and PMT, leading to a 2% organic orders growth and 6% sequential growth in the fourth quarter. The tailwinds we'll continue to see in these 2 businesses gives us confidence in our 2023 outlook, which Greg and Vimal will share more detail about in a few minutes.

第四季度是我們積壓訂單的又一個強勁季度，由於航空航天和高性能材料與技術的強勁表現，該訂單增長至 296 億美元的新紀錄，同比增長 7%，環比增長 2%。 Aero 和 PMT 的訂單也是一個積極的故事，導致第四季度有機訂單增長 2% 和環比增長 6%。我們將繼續在這兩項業務中看到的順風使我們對 2023 年的前景充滿信心，Greg 和 Vimal 將在幾分鐘內分享更多細節。

Our segment margin expanded 150 basis points year-over-year, led by over 900 basis points of expansion in safety and productivity solutions as volumes improve and we continue to stay ahead with the inflation curve through our strategic pricing actions.

我們的部門利潤率同比增長 150 個基點，其中安全和生產力解決方案的增長超過 900 個基點，銷量增加，我們通過戰略定價行動繼續保持領先於通貨膨脹曲線。

Excluding the year-over-year impact of our investment in Quantinuum, the margin expansion was 180 basis points. Free cash flow was $2.1 billion in the fourth quarter with 125% adjusted conversion, down 18% year-over-year but delivering in line with our original guidance for the year.

排除我們對 Quantinuum 投資的同比影響，利潤率增長了 180 個基點。第四季度自由現金流為 21 億美元，調整後轉換率為 125%，同比下降 18%，但符合我們最初的年度指引。

Capital deployment in the fourth quarter was $2.3 billion, including $1.4 billion of share repurchases, bringing our full year total to $4.2 billion in shares repurchased and exceeding our goal of $4 billion from our March Investor Day. For the full year 2022, we delivered outstanding results above the high end of our initial guidance for segment margin and adjusted earnings per share despite approximately $2 billion in year-over-year top line headwinds and constantly shifting macroeconomic conditions.

第四季度的資本部署為 23 億美元，其中包括 14 億美元的股票回購，使我們全年的股票回購總額達到 42 億美元，超過了我們在 3 月投資者日設立的 40 億美元的目標。在 2022 年全年，儘管同比收入約 20 億美元的逆風和不斷變化的宏觀經濟狀況，我們仍取得了高於我們初步指導的部門利潤率和調整後每股收益的出色業績。

We finished the year with 6% organic sales growth, 70 basis points of margin expansion and $8.76 of adjusted earnings per share, up 9% year-over-year and above the top end of our original $8.70 guide. Orders ended the year up 8% on an organic basis, and our backlog reached an all-time high of $29.6 billion. We generated $4.9 billion of cash in the year, 14% of our revenue. The appendix of this presentation contains a slide highlighting our guidance progression through 2022 as well as our performance against these guides.

我們以 6% 的有機銷售額增長、70 個基點的利潤增長和 8.76 美元的調整後每股收益結束了這一年，同比增長 9%，高於我們最初 8.70 美元指南的上限。年終訂單有機增長 8%，我們的積壓訂單達到 296 億美元的歷史新高。我們當年產生了 49 億美元的現金，占我們收入的 14%。本演示文稿的附錄包含一張幻燈片，重點介紹了我們到 2022 年的指導進展以及我們根據這些指南的表現。

Capital deployment for 2022 was $7.9 billion in total, in addition to the $4.2 billion in share repurchases, which lowered our weighted average share count by 2.5%. We deployed $800 million to high-return capital expenditures and $200 million on closing the acquisition of US Digital Designs.

2022 年的資本配置總額為 79 億美元，此外還有 42 億美元的股票回購，這使我們的加權平均股票數量減少了 2.5%。我們部署了 8 億美元用於高回報資本支出，並部署了 2 億美元用於完成對 US Digital Designs 的收購。

Finally, we maintained our dividend growth policy, paying out $2.7 billion and raising our dividend for the 13th time in 12 years. As always, we continue to execute on our proven value-creation framework, which is underpinned by our Accelerator operating system. I am confident in the strength of our backlog and the tailwinds we're seeing across our end markets, and I'm proud of our ability to execute and drive shareowner value through the current challenging environment.

最後，我們維持了股息增長政策，支付了 27 億美元，並在 12 年內第 13 次提高了股息。一如既往，我們繼續執行我們經過驗證的價值創造框架，該框架由我們的 Accelerator 操作系統提供支持。我對我們積壓的實力和我們在終端市場看到的順風充滿信心，我為我們在當前充滿挑戰的環境中執行和推動股東價值的能力感到自豪。

Now let's turn to Slide 3 to discuss an important development from the fourth quarter, which further improved our company's strength for the future. In the fourth quarter, we announced the final court approval of our buyout agreement with the NARCO Trust, providing the elimination of our funding obligations in exchange for our $1.325 billion cash payment to the trust. This liability has been weighing on our balance sheet since 2002, one of the numbers of legacy liabilities the company has been carefully managing.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 3 來討論第四季度的一個重要發展，它進一步提高了我們公司未來的實力。在第四季度，我們宣布法院最終批准了我們與 NARCO 信託基金的收購協議，取消了我們的融資義務，以換取我們向信託基金支付 13.25 億美元的現金。自 2002 年以來，這項負債一直在影響我們的資產負債表，這是公司一直謹慎管理的眾多遺留負債之一。

We recognized the charge from the buyout in the fourth quarter, and the cash outflow took place in January. Partially offsetting the impact of the buyout is the sale of HarbisonWalker International, the reorganized and renamed entity that emerged from the NARCO bankruptcy, which announced that and will be acquired from the trust by private equity firm, Platinum Equity. We expect this transaction to be completed later in 2023, reducing the net free cash flow impact by approximately $300 million.

我們在第四季度確認了收購費用，現金流出發生在 1 月份。 HarbisonWalker International 的出售部分抵消了收購的影響，HarbisonWalker International 是從 NARCO 破產中出現的重組和更名的實體，該公司宣布並將被私募股權公司 Platinum Equity 從信託中收購。我們預計該交易將於 2023 年晚些時候完成，從而將淨自由現金流的影響減少約 3 億美元。

This development represents a significant improvement in our financial strength. Specifically, it simplifies our balance sheet by eliminating our evergreen funding obligations, eliminates quarterly asbestos charges related to NARCO and extinguishes any further uncertainty on our company's financial health.

這一發展代表了我們財務實力的顯著改善。具體來說，它通過消除我們的長期融資義務簡化了我們的資產負債表，消除了與 NARCO 相關的季度石棉費用，並消除了我們公司財務健康的任何進一步不確定性。

Now let me turn over to Vimal to discuss our fourth quarter results in more detail on Slide 4.

現在讓我轉向 Vimal，在幻燈片 4 上更詳細地討論我們第四季度的業績。

Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to Slide 4. As Darius mentioned, we continue to deliver on our financial commitments despite a very challenging operating environment. In the fourth quarter, sales grew 10% organically with double-digit growth in 3 of our 4 SBGs: HPT, PMT and Aero. We generated volume improvement from third quarter in Aero and HBT despite continued supply chain constraints.

謝謝你，Darius，大家早上好。讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。正如 Darius 提到的，儘管經營環境充滿挑戰，我們仍繼續履行我們的財務承諾。第四季度，銷售額有機增長 10%，我們 4 個 SBG 中的 3 個實現兩位數增長：HPT、PMT 和 Aero。儘管供應鏈持續受到限制，但我們在 Aero 和 HBT 的第三季度實現了銷量增長。

As expected, we are seeing some signs of demand weakness in pockets of our shorter-cycle businesses in SPS and HBT, but demand across our long-cycle portfolio remains robust with the exception of warehouse automation as evidenced by 2% organic growth in orders and 7% growth in backlog. Supply chain remains a constraint on our overall growth, but we are encouraged by another quarter of sequential volume improvement in Aero as output expanded by double digits in 4Q.

正如預期的那樣，我們在 SPS 和 HBT 的較短週期業務中看到了一些需求疲軟的跡象，但我們的長期投資組合的需求仍然強勁，但倉庫自動化除外，訂單有機增長 2% 和積壓訂單增長 7%。供應鏈仍然是我們整體增長的製約因素，但隨著第四季度產量增長兩位數，我們對 Aero 的又一個季度連續銷量改善感到鼓舞。

Alongside solid organic growth came robust segment margin expansion of 150 basis point year-over-year to nearly 23% as our investment in Honeywell Digital enabled us to make a nimble and surgical approach to staying ahead of price/cost. While SPS was the lone segment to experience a decline in revenue year-over-year, the business also generated the most profitable quarter in its history, which we will discuss in more detail shortly.

除了穩健的有機增長之外，由於我們對 Honeywell Digital 的投資使我們能夠採取靈活而手術的方法來保持領先於價格/成本，因此部門利潤率同比增長 150 個基點至近 23%。雖然 SPS 是唯一一個收入同比下降的部門，但該業務也創造了其歷史上利潤最高的季度，我們稍後將對此進行更詳細的討論。

Let's spend a few minutes on the fourth quarter performance by business. Aerospace. Sales for the fourth quarter were up 11% organically year-over-year led by 23% growth in commercial aviation. This marks the second consecutive quarter of double-digit Aerospace organic sales growth and the seventh straight for commercial aviation, which gives us confidence despite the state of the Aero supply chain over the past 2 years. Supply chain remains a gating factor to volume growth, though we made a further progress this quarter with a factory output up 15% year-over-year and 14% sequentially.

讓我們花幾分鐘了解一下第四季度的業務表現。航天。在商用航空增長 23% 的帶動下，第四季度銷售額同比有機增長 11%。這標誌著航空航天有機銷售連續第二個季度實現兩位數增長，商業航空連續第七個季度增長，這給了我們信心，儘管過去兩年航空供應鏈狀況不佳。供應鏈仍然是銷量增長的一個門控因素，儘管本季度我們取得了進一步進展，工廠產量同比增長 15%，環比增長 14%。

Our past-due backlog grew an accelerated pace in the fourth quarter, but this was more driven by the strength of inbound orders. Growth was highest in Commercial OE, where increased ship-set deliveries led to 25% sales growth year-over-year.

第四季度，我們的逾期積壓訂單增長速度加快，但這更多是受到入境訂單強勁的推動。 Commercial OE 增長最快，整機交付量增加導致銷售額同比增長 25%。

Commercial aero aftermarket sales were up 20% in the fourth quarter as increased flight hours resulted in higher spare shipments and repair and overhaul activity. While defense volumes continued to be in the lower on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, our order rates remained strong, up high single digits for the quarter and mid-single digit for the year, giving us positive momentum for 2023. Aero segment margins contracted 120 basis point to 27.8% due to higher sales of lower-margin OE products, partially offset by our commercial excellence efforts.

商用航空售後市場銷售額在第四季度增長了 20%，這是因為飛行時間的增加導致備件出貨量以及維修和大修活動增加。雖然第四季度國防銷量同比繼續下降，但我們的訂單率依然強勁，本季度高個位數，全年中個位數，為我們提供了 2023 年的積極勢頭. 由於低利潤率 OE 產品的銷售額增加，航空部門的利潤率收縮 120 個基點至 27.8%，部分被我們卓越的商業努力所抵消。

Building Technologies delivered another outstanding quarter with 15% organic sales growth year-over-year. Modest improvement in supply chain enabled us to reduce our past-due backlog sequentially and deliver more fire products and building management systems, resulting in 21% organic growth in building products.

Building Technologies 又一個出色的季度實現了 15% 的有機銷售額同比增長。供應鏈的適度改善使我們能夠連續減少逾期積壓並交付更多消防產品和建築管理系統，從而使建築產品有機增長 21%。

However, supply chains still have not fully unlocked. We exited 2022 with higher past D-U-E backlogs than we entered the year and considerably higher levels than our pre-COVID norms. Building solutions sales also increased organically with double-digit organic growth in project sales for the third consecutive quarter. We finished the year with higher project backlog levels than the start of the year, providing a solid runway for 2023.

然而，供應鏈仍未完全解鎖。我們在 2022 年結束時，過去的 D-U-E 積壓工作比我們進入這一年時要多，而且比我們在 COVID 之前的規範水平要高得多。建築解決方案銷售額也實現有機增長，項目銷售額連續第三個季度實現兩位數的有機增長。我們以比年初更高的項目積壓水平結束了這一年，為 2023 年提供了堅實的跑道。

Our continued commercial excellence in this inflationary environment enabled us to expand HBT segment margins 370 basis point to 24.8%, substantial progress nearly reaching our long-term margin target of 25%.

我們在這種通貨膨脹環境下的持續商業卓越使我們能夠將 HBT 部門利潤率擴大 370 個基點至 24.8%，取得實質性進展，幾乎達到了我們 25% 的長期利潤率目標。

Performance Materials and Technologies sales grew 15% organically in fourth quarter despite a 4% headwind from Russia. Advanced materials grew 20% organically in the quarter as we continued to see robust value capture across the portfolio and demand in Fluorine products. The quarter was the fourth consecutive quarter where advanced materials led PMT growth.

儘管來自俄羅斯的阻力為 4%，但第四季度性能材料和技術銷售額有機增長了 15%。先進材料在本季度有機增長 20%，因為我們繼續看到整個產品組合的強勁價值捕獲和氟產品的需求。本季度是先進材料連續第四個季度引領 PMT 增長。

UOP grew 13% organically, overcoming 9% headwind year-over-year from lost Russia sales. Growth in UOP was led by refining catalyst shipments, and we also saw a double-digit sales increase in Sustainable Technology Solutions. Process technology returned to growth in the quarter as a result of strong gas processing demand. Process Solution also grew double digit in the quarter with a strength across the portfolio, led by thermal solutions, lifecycle solution and services and projects.

UOP 有機增長 13%，克服了俄羅斯銷售損失導致的同比 9% 的逆風。 UOP 的增長是由煉油催化劑出貨量帶動的，我們還看到可持續技術解決方案的銷售額實現了兩位數的增長。由於強勁的天然氣加工需求，加工技術在本季度恢復增長。工藝解決方案在本季度也實現了兩位數的增長，在熱解決方案、生命週期解決方案以及服務和項目的帶動下，整個產品組合都具有實力。

In late 2022, weather freeze caused some operational challenges at one of our plants, reducing output in the quarter. PMT orders once again grew organically in the fourth quarter, underpinned by strength in Fluorine products. Segment margins contracted 100 basis point in the quarter to 22% driven by cost inflation and higher sales of lower-margin products, partially offset by our commercial excellence efforts.

2022 年底，天氣凍結給我們的一家工廠帶來了一些運營挑戰，導致該季度的產量下降。在氟產品強勁的支撐下，第四季度 PMT 訂單再次有機增長。由於成本上漲和低利潤產品銷量增加，本季度部門利潤率收縮 100 個基點至 22%，部分被我們的卓越商業努力所抵消。

Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 5% organically in the quarter, in line with our expectation, as continued growth in sensing portion of sensing and safety technology business was offset by lower volume in warehouse automation and productivity solution and services.

安全和生產力解決方案銷售額在本季度有機下降 5%，符合我們的預期，因為傳感和安全技術業務的傳感部分的持續增長被倉庫自動化和生產力解決方案和服務的銷量下降所抵消。

While Intelligrated volumes declined overall, our aftermarket services business saw another quarter of double-digit growth. PSS continues to see some demand moderation from macroeconomic conditions, but we remain confident in our differentiated solutions.

雖然 Intelligrated 銷量總體下降，但我們的售後服務業務又實現了四分之一的兩位數增長。 PSS 繼續從宏觀經濟條件中看到一些需求放緩，但我們仍然對我們的差異化解決方案充滿信心。

Segment margin was a standout for SPS with expansion of 940 basis point to 20.2%, our highest ever in this business due to commercial excellence, improved sales mix, and productivity actions more than offsetting lower volume leverage and cost inflation headwinds. Growth across portfolio continues to be supported by accretive results in Honeywell Connected Enterprise. We had another quarter of double-digit revenue growth, including over 20% growth in our recurring and SaaS business year-over-year. Cyber, Sparta Systems and Connected Building all grew by more than 35% year-over-year in the quarter.

部門利潤率是 SPS 的突出表現，擴大了 940 個基點至 20.2%，這是我們在該業務中的最高水平，這歸功於卓越的商業、改進的銷售組合和生產力行動，這足以抵消較低的銷量槓桿和成本通脹的不利因素。 Honeywell Connected Enterprise 的增長成果繼續支持整個產品組合的增長。我們的收入又實現了兩位數的增長，其中經常性和 SaaS 業務同比增長超過 20%。 Cyber、Sparta Systems 和 Connected Building 在本季度的同比增長均超過 35%。

For the full year, [SC] sales and profit both grew by double digit, which is an indicator of the power of a strong software franchise. Overall, this is a great operational result for Honeywell. Adjusted earning per share in the fourth quarter grew 21% to $2.52, $0.01 above the midpoint of our prior guidance range.

全年，[SC] 銷售額和利潤均實現兩位數增長，這是強大軟件特許經營權的一個指標。總的來說，這對霍尼韋爾來說是一個很好的運營結果。第四季度調整後的每股收益增長 21% 至 2.52 美元，比我們先前指導範圍的中點高出 0.01 美元。

Segment margin drove 29% of year-over-year improvement in earnings per share, the main driver of our year-over-year growth. A lower adjusted effective tax rate contributed 10% of improvement and reduced share count added an additional $0.07. A bridge for adjusted EPS from 4Q '21 to 4Q '22 can be found in appendix of this presentation.

部門利潤率推動每股收益同比增長 29%，這是我們同比增長的主要驅動力。較低的調整後有效稅率貢獻了 10% 的改善，而減少的股票數量又增加了 0.07 美元。在本演示文稿的附錄中可以找到從 21 年第四季度到 22 年第四季度的調整後 EPS 的橋樑。

Moving to cash. We generated $2.1 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, down 18% year-over-year but delivering the midpoint of our full year free cash flow guidance at $4.9 billion. Cash continued to be challenged by higher receivables and inventory as we continue to work through the supply-constrained environment as well as $200 million headwind from Garrett receipt in the fourth quarter of 2021. So overall, Honeywell's rigorous operating principles allowed us to manage successfully through another challenging quarter as we close our 2022.

轉向現金。我們在本季度產生了 21 億美元的自由現金流，同比下降 18%，但實現了我們全年自由現金流指導的中點 49 億美元。隨著我們繼續應對供應受限的環境，以及 2021 年第四季度 Garrett 收到的 2 億美元逆風，現金繼續受到更高的應收賬款和庫存的挑戰。因此，總的來說，霍尼韋爾嚴格的運營原則使我們能夠成功地管理通過隨著我們結束 2022 年，又是一個充滿挑戰的季度。

Now let's turn to Slide 5 to talk about where we expect to see across our end markets and the broader macro environment in 2023. Looking ahead to 2023, we see a continuation of many of the challenges we faced in 2022. But we also see ongoing progress in our key initiative to unlock more volume from our supply chain in order to meet very robust demand in several of our key end markets.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 5，談談我們預計在 2023 年我們的終端市場和更廣泛的宏觀環境會出現什麼情況。展望 2023 年，我們看到我們在 2022 年面臨的許多挑戰將繼續存在。但我們也看到正在進行的我們的關鍵舉措取得進展，從我們的供應鏈中釋放更多的數量，以滿足我們幾個主要終端市場非常強勁的需求。

Commercial Aerospace will continue to be a standout in terms of demand, both build rates amongst our OEM customers as well as aftermarket flight hours, particularly as widebody makes a more meaningful contribution on its way back to normalization.

商業航空航天在需求方面將繼續表現突出，無論是我們的 OEM 客戶的建造率還是售後市場飛行時間，尤其是寬體機在恢復正常化的過程中做出了更有意義的貢獻。

Alongside that strong demand profile, we expect steady progress of the Aero supply chain in 2022 to continue in 2023. As a result, we expect acceleration in Aero's top line growth compared to 2022, potentially achieving low double digits.

除了強勁的需求狀況外，我們預計航空供應鏈在 2022 年的穩步發展將在 2023 年繼續。因此，我們預計航空的收入增長將比 2022 年加速，有可能實現低兩位數。

We continue -- we see continued tailwinds for investment in Sustainable Building Solutions, particularly through institutional channels as well in the production of both current and future energy supply as evidenced by strength in orders across both sustainable building technologies and sustainable technology solutions, including green fuels. We expect a moderation in raw material inflation but for it to remain at elevated levels. Coupled with a gradual improvement in supply chain, we should see more of a balance between volume and price to drive our top line growth in 2023.

我們繼續 - 我們看到可持續建築解決方案投資的持續順風，特別是通過機構渠道以及當前和未來能源供應的生產，可持續建築技術和可持續技術解決方案（包括綠色燃料）的訂單強度證明了這一點.我們預計原材料通脹將放緩，但仍將保持在較高水平。加上供應鏈的逐步改善，我們應該會看到更多的量價平衡來推動我們 2023 年的收入增長。

Our order growth of 2% decelerated in the fourth quarter compared to 8% for the full year but remained in positive territory, including sequential growth from the third quarter for Aero, PMT and SPS. Our backlog of almost $30 billion remains at record levels, growing 7% year-over-year in fourth quarter. We reduced our positive backlog in all SBGs except Aero for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting supply chain loosening and the effects of effort to mitigate part shortages.

與全年 8% 的訂單增長相比，我們第四季度 2% 的訂單增長有所放緩，但仍保持正增長，包括 Aero、PMT 和 SPS 從第三季度開始的環比增長。我們近 300 億美元的積壓訂單仍處於創紀錄水平，第四季度同比增長 7%。我們連續第二個季度減少了除航空航天外的所有 SBG 的積極積壓，反映了供應鏈鬆動和緩解零件短缺的努力的影響。

The current macroeconomic uncertainty is giving some customers pause amongst our short-cycle businesses in SPS and HBT, and there's a lot of near-term uncertainty regarding how the reversal of China's Zero COVID policy will impact 1Q, particularly the potential impact of Chinese New Year, though this may be a tailwind in the second half.

當前宏觀經濟的不確定性讓一些客戶對我們的 SPS 和 HBT 短週期業務猶豫不決，而且中國零 COVID 政策的逆轉將如何影響第一季度存在很多近期不確定性，尤其是農曆新年的潛在影響，儘管這可能是下半場的順風。

As discussed on the third quarter call, lower noncash pension income is a headwind to EPS growth in 2023, but our underlying segment profit growth continues to look robust. Underpinning our expectation is the confidence we have in our continued operational execution, underpinned by our operating system called Honeywell Accelerator. We'll manage through another challenging operational environment with the rigor you have come to expect from us.

正如在第三季度電話會議上討論的那樣，較低的非現金養老金收入是 2023 年每股收益增長的不利因素，但我們的基礎部門利潤增長看起來仍然強勁。支撐我們預期的是我們對持續運營執行的信心，這得益於我們名為 Honeywell Accelerator 的操作系統。我們將以您對我們期望的嚴謹態度應對另一個具有挑戰性的運營環境。

Now let me turn it over to Greg as we move to Slide 6 to discuss in more detail how these dynamics come together for our 2023 financial guidance.

現在讓我把它交給格雷格，因為我們轉到幻燈片 6 來更詳細地討論這些動態如何為我們的 2023 年財務指南結合起來。

Thanks, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. Given the backdrop Vimal just shared, in total for 2023, we expect sales of $36 billion to $37 billion, which represents an overall organic growth sales range of 2% to 5% for the year. While we'll continue to drive pricing actions where needed to offset the impact of cost inflation, we expect more balance between the contributions of volume and price in 2022.

謝謝，Vimal，大家早上好。鑑於 Vimal 剛剛分享的背景，我們預計 2023 年的總銷售額將達到 360 億美元至 370 億美元，這意味著全年的整體有機增長銷售額範圍為 2% 至 5%。雖然我們將繼續推動必要的定價行動以抵消成本通脹的影響，但我們預計 2022 年銷量和價格的貢獻將更加平衡。

Similar to last year, we believe the first half of the year will be slower as supply chains improve sequentially throughout the year and potential headwinds from the reversal of zero COVID policies in China are strongest in the first quarter.

與去年類似，我們認為今年上半年將放緩，因為供應鏈在全年依次改善，而中國零 COVID 政策逆轉的潛在阻力在第一季度最為強勁。

In Aerospace, the demand backdrop remains very encouraging in both commercial aviation and defense and space. In the commercial aftermarket, we expect continued flight-hour growth, particularly in widebody as international borders open and travel further normalizes to drive growth in air transport aftermarket sales. The policy change in China should provide added fuel to this dynamic.

在航空航天領域，商業航空、國防和太空領域的需求背景仍然非常令人鼓舞。在商業售後市場，我們預計飛行小時數將持續增長，尤其是寬體機，因為國際邊界開放和旅行進一步正常化將推動航空運輸售後市場銷售的增長。中國的政策變化應該會為這種動力提供更多動力。

On the commercial OE side, build rate schedules among the OEMs are trending upwards year-over-year, leading to more shipset deliveries for Honeywell, driving revenue growth but also translating into a corresponding increase in selection credits, a headwind to margins.

在商業 OE 方面，原始設備製造商之間的建造率計劃逐年上升，導致霍尼韋爾交付更多的船組，推動收入增長，但也轉化為選擇信用的相應增加，這對利潤率不利。

In Defense & Space, we plan to convert our strong order book into sales and expect Defense to return to growth in 2023 as the supply chain improves. Supply chain constraints, not demand, remain the gating factor to both commercial and Defense volume growth in 2023, but we're encouraged by the improvements our team has executed in recent months, resulting in 7% output growth in 2022.

在國防與航天領域，我們計劃將強勁的訂單轉化為銷售額，並預計隨著供應鏈的改善，國防業務將在 2023 年恢復增長。供應鏈限制，而不是需求，仍然是 2023 年商業和國防銷量增長的製約因素，但我們對我們團隊最近幾個月執行的改進感到鼓舞，這導致 2022 年產量增長 7%。

The sourcing environment for electronic components in Aero improved over the past quarter, but the supply chain for mechanical components remains constrained due to skilled labor shortages among Tier 3 and 4 suppliers. We entered 2023 with Aerospace backlog levels that are more than 20% higher year-over-year, giving us confidence in our growth projections.

Aero 的電子元件採購環境在過去一個季度有所改善，但由於 3 級和 4 級供應商的熟練勞動力短缺，機械元件的供應鏈仍然受到限制。進入 2023 年，我們的航空航天積壓量同比增長了 20% 以上，這讓我們對我們的增長預測充滿信心。

For overall Aero, we expect organic growth for the year to be in the high single-digit to low double-digit range. While Aerospace will likely be our strongest top line grower in 2023, we expect only modest margin expansion year-over-year as increased volume leverage is largely offset by unfavorable mix due to increased selection credits in the commercial OE business.

對於整個 Aero，我們預計今年的有機增長將在高個位數到低兩位數之間。雖然航空航天可能會成為我們 2023 年最強勁的收入增長者，但我們預計利潤率同比只會適度增長，因為增加的銷量槓桿在很大程度上被商業 OE 業務中選擇信用增加導致的不利組合所抵消。

In Building Technologies, we're cognizant of the broader economic environment and expect private investment in nonres construction to continue to be impacted by increased financing costs. However, throughout 2022, we built a strong slate of orders partially as a result of the supply chain environment that provides solid sales visibility and buffer for 2023.

在建築技術方面，我們認識到更廣泛的經濟環境，並預計非資源建築的私人投資將繼續受到融資成本增加的影響。然而，在整個 2022 年，我們建立了大量訂單，部分原因是供應鏈環境為 2023 年提供了可靠的銷售可見性和緩衝。

In addition, we believe that institutional investment will remain robust, buoyed by government stimulus funds that have not yet been deployed, supporting key verticals such as education, airports and health care. We see the most significant sales growth this year coming from building projects and building management systems as we capitalize on a robust 2022 book-to-bill in these businesses.

此外，我們認為，在尚未部署的政府刺激資金的推動下，機構投資將保持強勁，支持教育、機場和醫療保健等關鍵垂直行業。我們看到今年最顯著的銷售增長來自建築項目和建築管理系統，因為我們利用了這些業務強勁的 2022 年訂單出貨比。

We also expect increased spot orders for our building services throughout the year as the supply chain normalizes, layering incremental demand in. For overall HPT, we remain cautious in the current environment, expecting our strong backlog to support us early in the year and anticipate low single-digit organic sales growth for 2023 overall. However, we remain very confident in our long-term framework for Building Technologies as much of our portfolio is aligned with secular trends of sustainability and energy efficiency. On the segment margins, we expect to carry the momentum from 2022's strong exit rate, resulting in year-over-year expansion for the full year.

我們還預計，隨著供應鏈的正常化，我們的建築服務的現貨訂單將在全年增加，增加需求。對於整體 HPT，我們在當前環境中保持謹慎，預計我們強大的積壓訂單將在今年年初支持我們，並預計低2023 年整體有機銷售額實現個位數增長。然而，我們對建築技術的長期框架仍然非常有信心，因為我們的大部分產品組合都符合可持續性和能源效率的長期趨勢。在細分市場利潤率方面，我們預計將延續 2022 年強勁退出率的勢頭，從而實現全年同比擴張。

In PMT, we're set up to build upon an impressive 2022 and convert favorable macro conditions into another solid year with sales growth sequentially throughout the year. Backlog built through 2022 will enable another year of growth in Process Solutions led by lifecycle solutions and services and thermal solutions.

在 PMT 中，我們準備在令人印象深刻的 2022 年基礎上再接再厲，將有利的宏觀條件轉化為又一個穩健的年份，全年銷售額連續增長。到 2022 年建立的積壓工作將使以生命週期解決方案和服務以及熱解決方案為主導的過程解決方案再增長一年。

In UOP, improved comps as we lap the lost Russian sales headwinds will provide support to a business that already has potential for upside. Our Process Technologies business returned to growth in the fourth quarter and is poised to continue to grow in '23, while catalyst shipments should remain robust throughout the year. Demand for new energy capacity to offset lost Russian supply will also be a tailwind, particularly for our LNG business.

在 UOP 中，隨著我們應對失去的俄羅斯銷售逆風，改進的 comps 將為已經具有上升潛力的企業提供支持。我們的工藝技術業務在第四季度恢復增長，並有望在 23 年繼續增長，而全年催化劑出貨量應保持強勁。對新能源產能的需求以抵消俄羅斯供應的損失也將是一個順風，特別是對我們的液化天然氣業務而言。

In advanced materials, growth will continue despite difficult comps, thanks to strong demand for our Solstice products and supply chain improvements. In addition to Solstice, our other sustainable offerings will benefit from legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and increased customer focus on environmental responsibility. Orders in our Sustainable Technology Solutions business have accelerated dramatically over the past 2 years, and we're expecting more of the same in '23 as we continue towards our $700 million sales target by the end of 2024.

在先進材料方面，由於對我們的 Solstice 產品的強勁需求和供應鏈的改進，儘管競爭困難，但仍將繼續增長。除了 Solstice，我們的其他可持續產品也將受益於立法，例如《降低通貨膨脹法》和客戶對環境責任的更多關注。在過去 2 年中，我們可持續技術解決方案業務的訂單急劇增加，隨著我們繼續實現到 2024 年底達到 7 億美元的銷售目標，我們預計 23 年會有更多相同的訂單。

In total, we expect PMT sales to be up mid-single digits for '23. PMT margins should expand modestly as a result of improved volume leverage and continued pricing and productivity actions.

總的來說，我們預計 23 年 PMT 的銷售額將達到中個位數。由於銷量槓桿的提高以及持續的定價和生產力行動，PMT 利潤率應該會適度擴大。

Turning to Safety and Productivity Solutions. That will be the business most impacted by the macroeconomic environment in '23. An Intelligrated decreased investment in new warehouse capacity will continue to limit near-term opportunities in our long-cycle projects business with a trough in demand likely coming this year before returning to growth in '24.

轉向安全和生產力解決方案。這將是 23 世紀受宏觀經濟環境影響最大的業務。 Intelligrated 對新倉庫容量的投資減少將繼續限制我們長期項目業務的近期機會，今年可能會出現需求低谷，然後在 24 年恢復增長。

However, our aftermarket services business has been growing at double-digit rates, and we expect that to continue in 2023. In productivity solutions and services, short-cycle demand softness and the distributor destocking will impact sales in the first half of '23, but we expect this dynamic to taper off and should see sequential improvement later in the year.

然而，我們的售後服務業務一直以兩位數的速度增長，我們預計這種增長將在 2023 年繼續。在生產力解決方案和服務方面，短週期需求疲軟和經銷商去庫存將影響 23 年上半年的銷售，但我們預計這種動態會逐漸減弱，並且應該會在今年晚些時候看到連續改善。

In sensing and safety technologies, sales growth will continue in '23 after a strong finish to 2022. In total, we expect SPS sales to be down mid- to high single digits for the year. From a margin standpoint, '23 should be another solid year for SPS as we continue to benefit from improved business mix and drive our operational improvements.

在傳感和安全技術方面，銷售額在 2022 年強勁增長後將在 23 年繼續增長。總的來說，我們預計 SPS 銷售額今年將下降中高個位數。從利潤率的角度來看，'23 應該是 SPS 又一個穩定的一年，因為我們繼續受益於改進的業務組合併推動我們的運營改進。

While 4Q '22 was a high watermark for the business and will not necessarily be the new standard moving forward, we believe high-teen margin rates are achievable in 2023. So we expect our overall segment margin to expand 50 to 90 basis points next year, supported by higher sales volumes, our continued commercial excellence efforts and productivity actions.

雖然 22 年第四季度對業務來說是一個高水位線，不一定是未來的新標準，但我們相信 2023 年可以實現高利潤率。因此，我們預計明年我們的整體部門利潤率將擴大 50 至 90 個基點，在更高的銷量、我們持續的商業卓越努力和生產力行動的支持下。

Similar to last year, we expect SPS margins to expand the most as we build on our operational improvements in '22 and continue to benefit from improved mix and cost structure in that business. For the year, we expect earnings per share of $8.80 to $9.20, flat to up 5% adjusted despite an approximately $0.55 headwind from lower pension income. Excluding this impact, our adjusted EPS range would have been $9.35 to $9.75, up 7% to 11% adjusted.

與去年類似，我們預計 SPS 利潤率將擴大最多，因為我們在 22 年的運營改進的基礎上繼續受益，並繼續受益於該業務改進的組合和成本結構。今年，我們預計每股收益為 8.80 美元至 9.20 美元，調整後持平至上漲 5%，儘管養老金收入下降帶來約 0.55 美元的逆風。排除這一影響，我們調整後的每股收益範圍為 9.35 美元至 9.75 美元，調整後增長 7% 至 11%。

On the free cash flow front, we expect a range of $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion in 2023 or $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion, excluding the onetime $1.2 billion net impact of NARCO, HWI and UOP matters.

在自由現金流方面，我們預計 2023 年將達到 39 億美元至 43 億美元，或 51 億美元至 55 億美元，不包括 NARCO、HWI 和 UOP 事務一度產生的 12 億美元淨影響。

I'll walk through the puts and takes for our '23 cash flow in greater detail in a couple of minutes. But first, let's turn to Slide 7 and walk through our EPS bridge for 2023.

我將在幾分鐘內更詳細地介紹看跌期權和我們 23 年的現金流量。但首先，讓我們轉到幻燈片 7，了解 2023 年的 EPS 橋樑。

As you can see, segment profit will be the key driver of our earnings growth in '23, contributing $0.59 at the midpoint of our guidance range. Net below-the-line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative $475 million to $625 million, which includes capacity for $200 million to $325 million of repositioning, which is lower than the approximately $400 million we used in '22. For tax, we expect an effective tax rate of approximately 21% for the year.

正如您所看到的，分部利潤將是我們 23 年盈利增長的主要驅動力，在我們的指導範圍的中點貢獻 0.59 美元。淨線下影響，即分部利潤與稅前收入之間的差額，預計在負 4.75 億美元至 6.25 億美元之間，其中包括 2 億美元至 3.25 億美元的重新定位能力，低於而不是我們在 22 年使用的大約 4 億美元。對於稅收，我們預計今年的有效稅率約為 21%。

With these inputs below the line and other items, excluding pension, are expected to be up $0.05 per share year-over-year at the midpoint of guidance primarily driven by lower repositioning and asbestos charges, partially offset by higher net interest expense.

由於這些投入低於線和其他項目（不包括養老金），預計每股收益將在指導的中點同比上漲 0.05 美元，這主要是由較低的重新定位和石棉費用推動的，部分被較高的淨利息支出所抵消。

For share count, our base case for 2023 is that our minimum 1% share count reduction program will result in a benefit of approximately $0.15 per share, reducing our weighted average share count to approximately 672 million from the 683 million in 2022.

對於股票數量，我們 2023 年的基本情況是，我們的最低 1% 的股票數量減少計劃將帶來每股約 0.15 美元的收益，從而使我們的加權平均股票數量從 2022 年的 6.83 億股減少至約 6.72 億股。

As we previously communicated, we expect a large decline in pension and OPEB income this year as a result of the increased interest rate environment. For the full year, we expect approximately $550 million of pension and OPEB income, down about $500 million from 2022, driving about $0.55 headwind to EPS. However, this is a noncash accounting item as our overfunded pension status will ensure that no incremental contributions are needed.

正如我們之前所傳達的那樣，由於利率環境上升，我們預計今年的養老金和 OPEB 收入將大幅下降。對於全年，我們預計養老金和 OPEB 收入約為 5.5 億美元，比 2022 年減少約 5 億美元，對每股收益造成約 0.55 美元的阻力。然而，這是一個非現金會計項目，因為我們資金過多的養老金狀況將確保不需要增加繳款。

We ended '22 with a pension-funded status of over 125% as a result of diligent management and strong returns, a great position to be in for our employees and shareholders. In total, we expect '23 earnings per share to be in the range of $8.80 to $9.20, flat to up 5% year-on-year on an adjusted basis. However, excluding the impact of noncash pension headwinds, our guidance would be a range of $9.35 to $9.75, up 9% at the midpoint.

由於勤奮的管理和豐厚的回報，我們在 22 年底以超過 125% 的養老金資助狀態結束，這對我們的員工和股東來說是一個很好的位置。總體而言，我們預計 23 年每股收益將在 8.80 美元至 9.20 美元之間，經調整後同比持平至增長 5%。然而，排除非現金養老金不利因素的影響，我們的指導價區間為 9.35 美元至 9.75 美元，中間值上漲 9%。

Now let's turn to Slide 8 and talk about the drivers of our free cash guidance for 2023. As we've outlined in the bridge, our '23 free cash flow story can be characterized as strong operational performance offset by a few discrete nonoperational items. Income growth is the largest driver of free cash flow, and we expect to make further progress this year on working capital as the supply chain normalizes.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8，談談我們 2023 年自由現金指導的驅動因素。正如我們在橋樑中概述的那樣，我們的 23 年自由現金流故事的特點是強勁的運營業績被一些離散的非運營項目所抵消。收入增長是自由現金流的最大驅動力，隨著供應鏈正常化，我們預計今年在營運資金方面將取得進一步進展。

We expect '23 free cash flow, excluding the settlement of the legacy legal matters we discussed earlier, to range between $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion, up 8% year-over-year at the midpoint as we had previously spoken about. Accounting for the settlements, we're expecting free cash flow for 2023 in the range of $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion.

我們預計 23 年的自由現金流，不包括我們之前討論過的遺留法律問題的解決，將在 51 億美元至 55 億美元之間，如我們之前所說的那樣，在中點同比增長 8%。考慮到和解，我們預計 2023 年的自由現金流將在 39 億美元至 43 億美元之間。

Now let's turn to Slide 9, and we can discuss our guidance for Q1. As we highlighted earlier, we entered '23 with record backlog, providing a solid foundation for the first quarter. Supply chains remain constrained, however, we anticipate modest sequential improvement in volumes. We're closely monitoring the impacts of Zero COVID policy changes in China as the country reopens and eased its COVID restrictions and are wary of potential Q1 impacts. However, we anticipate that these policy changes will be a net positive for demand as we progress throughout the year and will result in a robust second half in China.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 9，我們可以討論我們對第一季度的指導。正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們以創紀錄的積壓進入 23 年，為第一季度奠定了堅實的基礎。供應鏈仍然受到限制，但是，我們預計銷量會出現適度的環比改善。隨著中國重新開放並放寬對 COVID 的限制，我們正在密切關注零 COVID 政策變化對中國的影響，並對第一季度的潛在影響保持警惕。然而，我們預計這些政策變化將對需求產生淨積極影響，因為我們全年都在進步，並將導致中國下半年的強勁增長。

Looking at the segments. We expect sales growth in Aerospace in the first quarter as the demand environment remains robust and we execute on our strong backlog. However, the rate of growth will be more subdued than our full year expectations as we anticipate 1Q will be the most supply-constrained for the quarter.

看著細分市場。我們預計第一季度航空航天的銷售額將增長，因為需求環境依然強勁，而且我們會處理大量積壓訂單。然而，增長率將低於我們的全年預期，因為我們預計第一季度將是本季度供應最緊張的時期。

In Building Technologies, we anticipate modest organic sales growth in the first quarter as we work through our backlog, and the supply chain continues to heal. We see the strongest sales growth in building projects, followed by increased sales of Fire.

在 Building Technologies 方面，我們預計第一季度的有機銷售額會適度增長，因為我們會處理積壓訂單，並且供應鏈會繼續恢復。我們看到建築項目的銷售增長最為強勁，其次是 Fire 的銷售增長。

In PMT, we expect another quarter of year-over-year growth in 1Q. We expect that growth to be once again led by advanced materials with Process Solutions the laggard, though still with strong year-over-year growth. We're expecting -- sorry, we experienced a disruption in one of our PMT plants that will cause some unplanned downtime, though that is embedded in our guide.

在 PMT 方面，我們預計第一季度將再出現一個季度的同比增長。我們預計這一增長將再次由先進材料引領，而工藝解決方案是落後者，儘管同比增長仍然強勁。我們預計 - 抱歉，我們的一個 PMT 工廠發生了中斷，這將導致一些計劃外停機，儘管這已嵌入我們的指南中。

In Safety and Productivity Solutions, short-cycle and warehouse automation demand softness will offset growth in Intelligrated aftermarket services and the sensing part of our sensing and safety technologies business, leading to a decline in year-over-year sales. However, we expect another strong margin performance in the high teens.

在安全和生產力解決方案方面，短週期和倉庫自動化需求疲軟將抵消 Intelligrated 售後服務以及我們傳感和安全技術業務的傳感部分的增長，導致銷售額同比下降。然而，我們預計在十幾歲的時候會有另一個強勁的利潤率表現。

So for overall Honeywell, we anticipate sales in the range of $8.3 billion to $8.6 billion in the first quarter, up 1% to 5% organically. We expect margins in the range of 21.4% to 21.8%, up 30 to 70 basis points year-over-year as we remain diligent in our price/cost management and benefit from favorable business mix. The net below-the-line impact is expected to be between $165 million to $210 million of an expense with a range of repositioning between $80 million and $120 million as we continue to provide capacity to fund our transformational efforts.

因此，對於霍尼韋爾整體而言，我們預計第一季度的銷售額將在 83 億美元至 86 億美元之間，有機增長 1% 至 5%。我們預計利潤率在 21.4% 至 21.8% 之間，同比增長 30 至 70 個基點，因為我們在價格/成本管理方面保持勤奮，並受益於有利的業務組合。隨著我們繼續提供能力為我們的轉型工作提供資金，淨線下影響預計將在 1.65 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間，重新定位範圍在 8000 萬至 1.2 億美元之間。

We expect the effective tax rate to be in the range of 21% to 22% for the quarter and average share count to be approximately 675 million shares. As a result, we expect first quarter EPS between $1.86 and $1.96, down 3% to up 3% year-over-year or up 5% to 10%, excluding the year-over-year impact of lower noncash pension income.

我們預計本季度的有效稅率將在 21% 至 22% 之間，平均股數約為 6.75 億股。因此，我們預計第一季度每股收益在 1.86 美元至 1.96 美元之間，同比下降 3% 至 3%，或上升 5% 至 10%，不包括非現金養老金收入下降的同比影響。

And lastly, while the first quarter is already historically our lowest from a free cash flow perspective, the settlement payments related to the aforementioned legal liabilities were paid out in January, and we expect cash from operations to be a net use in 1Q.

最後，雖然從自由現金流的角度來看，第一季度已經是我們歷史上最低的，但與上述法律責任相關的結算付款已在 1 月份支付，我們預計來自運營的現金將在第一季度成為淨使用。

Overall, while we maintain a prudent level of caution, we're confident in our operational abilities and our portfolio of differentiated technologies. Our portfolio is well positioned for this stage of the cycle, and we'll continue to innovate and invest in the businesses to support long-term growth.

總體而言，雖然我們保持審慎的謹慎態度，但我們對我們的運營能力和我們的差異化技術組合充滿信心。我們的投資組合在周期的這個階段處於有利地位，我們將繼續創新並投資於業務以支持長期增長。

Now with that, I'll turn the call back over to Darius on Slide 10.

現在，我將在幻燈片 10 上將電話轉回 Darius。

2022 was another year of both challenges and progress for Honeywell. Despite another host of macroeconomic and geopolitical difficulties, we attacked the challenges we faced head on. We overdelivered on our financial commitments. While 2023 brings new (inaudible), including potential recession scenarios, leading to uncertain demand in short cycle with a record $30 billion backlog, a robust balance sheet and one that has been further derisked due to the NARCO settlement and the ability to deploy capital organically and inorganically, I remain optimistic about the future of Honeywell and believe the company is well positioned to drive innovation to solve some of the world's most challenging problems.

2022 年對霍尼韋爾來說又是充滿挑戰和進步的一年。儘管存在一系列宏觀經濟和地緣政治困難，但我們直面挑戰。我們超額兌現了財務承諾。雖然 2023 年帶來了新的（聽不清），包括潛在的經濟衰退情景，導致短週期需求不確定，積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 300 億美元，資產負債表穩健，但由於與 NARCO 和解以及有機部署資本的能力，資產負債表進一步降低了風險從無機的角度來看，我對霍尼韋爾的未來仍然持樂觀態度，並相信該公司有能力推動創新以解決世界上一些最具挑戰性的問題。

One last item before we move to Q&A. I'm pleased to announce that our 2023 Investor Day will be held on May 11 in New York City. At this Investor Day, I, along with our other members of the senior management team, will provide an update on Honeywell's business strategy, exciting new growth opportunities and our long-term growth algorithm. We look forward to sharing more about Honeywell's future at that time. With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.

在我們進入問答環節之前的最後一項。我很高興地宣布，我們的 2023 年投資者日將於 5 月 11 日在紐約市舉行。在這個投資者日，我和我們高級管理團隊的其他成員將提供有關霍尼韋爾業務戰略、激動人心的新增長機會和我們的長期增長算法的最新信息。我們期待屆時分享更多關於霍尼韋爾未來的信息。有了這個，肖恩，讓我們進入問答環節。

Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg, Vimal and Anne are now available to answer your questions. (Operator Instructions) Crystal, please open the line for Q&A.

謝謝你，大流士。 Darius、Greg、Vimal 和 Anne 現在可以回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）Crystal，請打開問答線路。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安米切爾。

Just wanted to start -- my question would be around the first quarter outlook. So maybe 2 parts on that. Firstly, just on the segment margin assumption. Are we assuming within that, that you have a sort of 200 or 300 points increase at SPS year-on-year and then maybe are down in Aerospace and PMT on margins? Just wanted to check that. And then also in Q1, should we expect orders to be down after they were up kind of low single digit in the second half of last year?

只是想開始——我的問題是關於第一季度的展望。所以可能有 2 個部分。首先，僅基於分部利潤率假設。我們是否假設，您的 SPS 同比增長 200 或 300 點，然後航空航天和 PMT 的利潤率可能下降？只是想檢查一下。然後也是在第一季度，我們是否應該期望訂單在去年下半年上升到某種低個位數之後下降？

Thanks, Julian. First off, we don't guide orders, so we're not really going to comment on that specifically. As it relates to the margin outlook you highlighted, I think you're in the right neighborhood. Again, we don't guide our individual margin rates for each of the segments. But to expect that Aero might be down in 1Q is probably a reasonable expectation.

謝謝，朱利安。首先，我們不指導訂單，所以我們不打算具體評論。由於它與您強調的利潤率前景有關，我認為您來對地方了。同樣，我們不會指導每個細分市場的單獨保證金率。但預計 Aero 在第一季度可能會下降可能是一個合理的預期。

And as I highlighted, SPS is going to be on the top end of our margin expansion all year long, frankly, given all the work that, that team has done, adjusting their cost structure for the realities of the sales environment that they've been in as well as, as we talked about before, the reductions in Intelligrated sales are actually not painful from a margin standpoint. They actually help given the margin profile of that business. So I think your instincts are right, but we're not going to be specific on that guide.

正如我強調的那樣，坦率地說，考慮到該團隊所做的所有工作，SPS 全年都將處於我們利潤率擴張的頂端，根據他們所處的銷售環境的現實調整他們的成本結構正如我們之前談到的那樣，從利潤率的角度來看，Intelligrated 銷售額的下降實際上並不痛苦。考慮到該業務的利潤率，它們實際上有所幫助。所以我認為您的直覺是正確的，但我們不會具體說明該指南。

Yes. And maybe just to add to that, I mean, I think SPS's results, particularly in Q4, really exemplify our -- the strength of our operating systems and how quickly we adjust to market conditions. As you saw, they posted record margins. And that's not by accident. That's by very pronounced actions. They knew they were facing some challenges on the revenue side. They adjusted their cost structure. They maximized our aftermarket services business, which result in a really nice margin profile. That's an example of how Honeywell operates, which is when we see challenges, we act upon them early and make sure that we still print very good results despite some market headwinds.

是的。也許只是為了補充這一點，我的意思是，我認為 SPS 的業績，尤其是第四季度的業績，確實證明了我們——我們操作系統的實力以及我們適應市場條件的速度。如您所見，他們發布了創紀錄的利潤率。這並非偶然。那是通過非常明顯的行動。他們知道他們在收入方面面臨一些挑戰。他們調整了成本結構。他們最大化了我們的售後服務業務，從而帶來了非常不錯的利潤率。這是霍尼韋爾如何運作的一個例子，即當我們看到挑戰時，我們會及早採取行動，並確保儘管存在一些市場逆風，我們仍然可以打印出非常好的結果。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question will come from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的史蒂夫圖薩。

Can you just give a little more color on how much the OEM incentives are, what kind of headwind that is? And then are you guys on track for the longer-term target? What's -- any color on the trajectory and timing towards that? I think you said historically or last year, it was, I don't know, 29%. Are you guys still on track for that?

您能否就 OEM 激勵措施提供更多信息，這是什麼樣的逆風？那麼你們是否正在朝著長期目標邁進？什麼是 - 軌跡上的任何顏色和時間？我想你說的是歷史或去年，我不知道是 29%。你們還在努力嗎？

Yes. I mean, we absolutely are. I think that we're very committed to that number. As we look at the outlook for this year, we're very much within our operating algorithm that we provided last Investor Day, sort of -- if you just take the midpoint, we're sort of at the lower end on revenue, but we're above our margin profile. But in terms of our commitments to our long-term gains, it's very much on track. The OEM credits are significant as a headwind. And Greg?

是的。我的意思是，我們絕對是。我認為我們非常致力於這個數字。當我們審視今年的前景時，我們非常符合上次投資者日提供的運營算法，有點——如果你只取中點，我們的收入有點低，但我們高於我們的利潤率。但就我們對長期收益的承諾而言，它已經步入正軌。原始設備製造商信用作為逆風是重要的。格雷格呢？

Yes. So -- and think about that -- that is tied to Boeing's delivery specifically of airplanes and incentives that we have for -- with the airlines who are taking those airplanes. And that is going to be a multiyear realignment. Today, they've promised in excess of their production rate in terms of deliveries.

是的。所以——想想看——這與波音公司交付的飛機和我們所擁有的激勵措施有關——與乘坐這些飛機的航空公司有關。這將是一個多年的調整。今天，他們已經承諾在交付方面超過他們的生產率。

And so that's going to -- that's what's going to move the needle. It's going to impact our sales. When we print our OE sales growth rates, you're going to see that as an offset, and it's obviously a margin headwind. So it's measured in the hundreds of millions of dollars. We're not going to be precise about what that is. And again, there's going to be variability around that, depending on the actual delivery performance of the OEs to the airlines themselves.

所以這將 - 這就是移動針頭的原因。這將影響我們的銷售。當我們打印我們的 OE 銷售增長率時，你會看到它是一種抵消，這顯然是一個利潤逆風。所以它是以數億美元來衡量的。我們不會準確說明那是什麼。同樣，這會有所不同，這取決於 OE 對航空公司本身的實際交付性能。

Yes. And maybe just some closing 2 points. We do expect modest margin expansion in Aero. And we're very committed to the goal we gave you at the last Investor Day.

是的。也許只是一些結束的 2 分。我們確實預計航空業務的利潤率會適度增長。我們非常致力於實現我們在上一個投資者日給你的目標。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

I was wondering if you guys could walk through a little bit of what your cost inflation assumptions are and maybe a little color around kind of that -- the price/cost environment. Just in context, are we kind of done with the inflation part of the cycle? Are your suppliers still raising prices on you guys? And are you still raising prices on your side? And just a little bit of color per segment, I think, would be helpful. And I'll pass it on after that.

我想知道你們是否可以稍微了解一下您的成本通脹假設，也許還有一些關於價格/成本環境的顏色。就上下文而言，我們是否已經完成了周期的通貨膨脹部分？你們的供應商還在漲價嗎？而你這邊還在漲價嗎？我認為，每段只需一點點顏色就會有所幫助。之後我會把它傳下去。

Scott, as a headline, I would say that inflation is moderating. It's not going away. So we are not losing our eye on our model on driving positive price/cost. And -- but on a trend basis, there's some deflation in some commodities. But labor costs still high, energy costs are kind of more on a standstill basis. So that's our entry assumption that it's on a -- more on a reducing trend but not getting -- moving away.

斯科特，作為標題，我會說通貨膨脹正在放緩。它不會消失。因此，我們並沒有忽視推動正價格/成本的模型。而且——但在趨勢的基礎上，一些商品出現了一些通貨緊縮。但勞動力成本仍然很高，能源成本更像是處於停滯狀態。所以這就是我們的入場假設，即它處於——更多的是下降趨勢，但沒有——離開。

So our pricing targets have been adjusted. We still want positive price/cost model into our P&L. So we're not going to go away from that execution we did in 2022. But we're also sensitive that with the market being tighter compared to 2022, we want to also protect our volumes. And to that extent, we're watching how we want to adjust our price/cost algorithm. So that's kind of the overarching principles. They vary within the businesses little bit, but on -- directionally, that's our guiding principles. Maybe, Greg, if you want to add anything.

所以我們的定價目標已經調整。我們仍然希望將積極的價格/成本模型納入我們的損益表。因此，我們不會放棄我們在 2022 年所做的執行。但我們也很敏感，因為市場與 2022 年相比更加緊張，我們也希望保護我們的銷量。就此而言，我們正在觀察我們希望如何調整我們的價格/成本算法。這就是總體原則。它們在業務中略有不同，但在方向上，這是我們的指導原則。格雷格，如果您想添加任何內容，也許可以。

Yes. I mean, all I would say is that means rather than double-digit price increases, we're planning on mid-single digits, maybe low single digits this year with inflation in that same neighborhood.

是的。我的意思是，我要說的是，這意味著不是兩位數的價格上漲，而是我們計劃在中個位數，今年可能是低個位數，同一個社區的通貨膨脹。

Yes. And I think that's important is that we do -- we just don't do pricing blindly. I mean, we do mark -- watch demand versus pricing versus balancing our inflation. And we try to do that thoughtfully such that it's not just blind increases. We also have to be mindful of market share, demand, et cetera.

是的。我認為重要的是我們這樣做——我們只是不盲目定價。我的意思是，我們做標記 - 觀察需求與定價與平衡我們的通貨膨脹。我們會深思熟慮地做到這一點，而不是盲目增加。我們還必須注意市場份額、需求等。

And we've got a set of analytics to do that. I mean, this is the power of Honeywell Digital, which we've been implementing in the last 3 to 4 years. Our level of visibility accuracy is actually really good, and it's a new set of muscles we've developed actually in the last 1.5 years as we face this inflationary environment.

我們有一套分析來做到這一點。我的意思是，這就是我們在過去 3 到 4 年中一直在實施的 Honeywell Digital 的力量。我們的能見度準確度水平實際上非常好，這是我們在過去 1.5 年中面對這種通貨膨脹環境時實際上開發的一組新肌肉。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe if I could ask about supply chain improvement. You have a little bit of improvement in working capital year-over-year on supply chain. Can you frame the total impact in 2022 of supply chain? And how do you expect it panning out in '23? You called it out in Aerospace with the Tier 3, Tier 4 suppliers having labor issues. Where else are you seeing it? And how do you kind of expect it to improve across the segments?

也許我可以詢問有關供應鏈改進的問題。您在供應鏈上的營運資金同比有所改善。您能概括一下 2022 年供應鏈的總體影響嗎？您如何看待它在 23 年的表現？您在航空航天領域大聲疾呼，因為 3 級、4 級供應商存在勞工問題。你還能在哪裡看到它？您如何看待它在各個細分市場中的改進？

Yes. Let me kind of -- there's sort of not one way to describe it, but I'll give you a few metrics which indicate sort of the direction. I mean, I think the punchline -- the summary punchline, it is improving, and we saw that. I mean, we saw a reduction in our past due in 3 out of the 4 SBGs. The only one the past dues went up in Q4 was Aero. But we also saw very robust demand in Aero. So I think you have to offset that. Is that an issue instead of opportunity?

是的。讓我有點——沒有一種方法可以描述它，但我會給你一些指示某種方向的指標。我的意思是，我認為妙語——總結妙語，它正在改進，我們看到了。我的意思是，我們看到 4 個 SBG 中的 3 個過去到期的款項有所減少。第四季度唯一一個過去會費上漲的是 Aero。但我們也看到 Aero 的需求非常強勁。所以我認為你必須抵消這一點。這是一個問題而不是機會嗎？

And I would tell you that our Aero output on a year-over-year basis was up around 15%. So that's actually a pretty good outcome, which also tells you that we're migrating in the right direction and given that the past due is reduced in the other one.

我會告訴你，我們的 Aero 產量同比增長了 15% 左右。所以這實際上是一個非常好的結果，這也告訴你我們正在朝著正確的方向遷移，並且考慮到另一個方面的逾期付款減少了。

So let me kind of split the discussion on 2 segments. One, for semiconductors, it is definitely getting better. It is improving, and we see that sort of really moderating towards a normal state before the end of this year. That's sort of what we saw. We saw some clearing of the past dues. We still have some left, and that's how we see it.

所以讓我把討論分成兩部分。第一，對於半導體來說，它肯定在變好。它正在改善，我們看到這種情況在今年年底前真正趨向於正常狀態。這就是我們所看到的。我們看到了一些過去的會費。我們還有一些剩餘，這就是我們的看法。

In Aero, it's also improving. The pace is likely going to be slower than what it was in semiconductors. Our level of decommits in Q4 was below 20%, which was a low for the year. Every quarter prior to Q4, the level of decommits from our supply base was over 20% -- actually, under 20%, which is also a good sign. So we see a slow and steady improvement as we move throughout the year. That's sort of our expectation for the supply chain.

在 Aero 中，它也在改進。步伐可能會比半導體慢。我們在第四季度的退訂率低於 20%，這是今年的最低水平。在第四季度之前的每個季度，我們供應基地的退役率都超過 20%——實際上，低於 20%，這也是一個好兆頭。因此，隨著我們全年的行動，我們看到了緩慢而穩定的改善。這是我們對供應鏈的期望。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Just wanted to dive into SPS a bit more. So if we think about -- maybe first of all, can we just dive in a bit deeper into what happened with the PPS. I know there's been some channel headwinds there, but that's a big change from what we saw last quarter.

只是想更深入地了解 SPS。因此，如果我們考慮 - 也許首先，我們能否更深入地了解 PPS 發生的事情。我知道那裡有一些渠道逆風，但這與我們上個季度看到的情況相比發生了很大變化。

And then when we think about the 2023 outlook, it looks like Intelligrated down 15%, 20%. Is that representative of the market? Or are you being more selective in terms of the projects that you've been accepting and therefore converting?

然後，當我們考慮 2023 年的前景時，Intelligrated 似乎下降了 15%、20%。那是市場的代表嗎？還是您在接受並因此轉換的項目方面更具選擇性？

And then on top of that, I know that's only one question, but it looks like margins this year is high teens, maybe 20% range. When we normalize for mix beyond this year, are we going to be above 20%? Any color there would be helpful.

然後最重要的是，我知道這只是一個問題，但看起來今年的利潤率很高，可能在 20% 的範圍內。當我們對今年以後的混合進行標準化時，我們會超過 20% 嗎？那裡的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Can you repeat the last one because I didn't quite get the last question there, Nigel?

奈傑爾，你能重複最後一個嗎，因為我沒有完全理解最後一個問題？

Yes. So the last part of the one question is when we normalize for mix to Intelligrated PPS in '24/'25, are we at 20-and-above margins?

是的。所以這個問題的最後一部分是，當我們在“24/”25 中將混合標準化為 Intelligrated PPS 時，我們是否處於 20 及以上的利潤率？

Yes. I think that one was going to be -- it's probably too early to tell, but what I will tell you is that for -- we already basically demonstrated we can get to 20% margins in SPS in Q4. So the target hasn't changed in terms of what's happening overall with the business. Yes, Intelligrated is -- the markets are down. I mean, we see it, the warehouse and distribution segment is down. There's an overbuild that occurred in the year 2020 and 2021. The markets are absorbing that capacity. We do expect an uptick in orders and return to growth in 2024. We actually are encouraged by the pipeline that's starting to form.

是的。我認為這將是——現在下結論可能還為時過早，但我要告訴你的是——我們已經基本上證明我們可以在第四季度的 SPS 中獲得 20% 的利潤率。因此，就業務的整體情況而言，目標沒有改變。是的，Intelligrated 是——市場正在下跌。我的意思是，我們看到了，倉庫和配送部門已經關閉。 2020 年和 2021 年發生了過度建設。市場正在吸收這種能力。我們確實預計訂單會增加並在 2024 年恢復增長。實際上，我們對開始形成的管道感到鼓舞。

And at the same time, we're also being a little bit more selective in terms of margin profile and so on. And we have an algorithm in terms of the kinds of orders that we want. So it's a little bit of both. PSS has been a bit softer than in the prior. We got to remember that we're coming off of record orders, particularly in the first half. But overall, we expect to see a fairly strong robust level of business in the second half of this year, and we still have a backlog to draw from.

同時，我們在利潤率等方面也更具選擇性。我們有一個算法來處理我們想要的訂單類型。所以兩者兼而有之。 PSS 比以前軟了一點。我們必須記住，我們正在擺脫創紀錄的訂單，尤其是在上半年。但總的來說，我們預計今年下半年的業務水平會相當強勁，而且我們仍有積壓訂單可供利用。

So I don't think there's -- there was nothing in FPS in Q4 that was out of expectations. It was actually incredibly consistent. And frankly, I was very encouraged by the margin rate, and that team has done a nice job in really managing to the cards they're dealt from a revenue base, using our Accelerator operating system to really deliver a strong financial result even with some revenue headwinds. I don't know, Vimal, if you...

所以我認為第四季度的 FPS 沒有什麼超出預期的。它實際上非常一致。坦率地說，我對保證金率感到非常鼓舞，該團隊在真正管理他們從收入基礎上處理的卡片方面做得很好，使用我們的 Accelerator 操作系統確實提供了強勁的財務結果，即使有一些收入逆風。我不知道，Vimal，如果你...

So IGS, I just want to add a comment on IGS. I think top line challenge will be there in '23. But we are focused on margin in this business. Our aftermarket service business is growing double digits for last several years. That trend will continue in 2023. In fact, we want to do everything possible to continue to drive that at a higher rate and other margin improvement opportunity but better operating efficiency, executing projects better and faster is going to be another focus area. So while the volumes are down, we are constantly looking at margin expansion strategy in Intelligrated business.

所以 IGS，我只想對 IGS 添加評論。我認為頂級挑戰將在 23 年出現。但我們專注於這項業務的利潤率。我們的售後服務業務在過去幾年中以兩位數的速度增長。這種趨勢將在 2023 年繼續。事實上，我們希望盡一切可能繼續以更高的速度和其他提高利潤率的機會推動這一趨勢，但更好的運營效率、更好更快地執行項目將成為另一個重點領域。因此，雖然銷量下降，但我們一直在研究 Intelligrated 業務的利潤擴張策略。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。

Just a couple of questions on PMT. So first, on decarbonization, I mean, clearly a big revenue driver. But are you seeing any delays in process and fund disbursement at the federal level because we sort of heard about just shortage of staffing there? So that's question one.

關於 PMT 的幾個問題。所以首先，關於脫碳，我的意思是，這顯然是一個很大的收入驅動力。但是你是否看到聯邦一級的流程和資金支付有任何延誤，因為我們有點聽說那裡的人員短缺？這是第一個問題。

And second, if you could just talk about visibility on advanced material strength because that seems to be just get better and better every quarter.

其次，如果你能談談先進材料強度的可見性，因為這似乎每個季度都在變得越來越好。

So on the -- Andrew, on the decarbonization, I would say, at least I see much stronger trend in orders in our Sustainable Technology Solutions business as we had forecasted, IRS at least helping. We had a pretty strong performance in our sustainable aviation fuel part of the portfolio. We see that further strengthening in 2023.

所以關於 - 安德魯，關於脫碳，我想說，至少我看到我們的可持續技術解決方案業務的訂單趨勢比我們預測的要強得多，IRS 至少有所幫助。我們在產品組合中的可持續航空燃料部分錶現非常出色。我們認為這種情況在 2023 年會進一步加強。

But in addition, now we see activity happening in carbon capture and hydrogen space. So we see more active projects where customers are making decisions. So we remain very optimistic on good performance by STS business in 2023.

但除此之外，現在我們看到碳捕獲和氫空間中發生的活動。因此，我們看到客戶正在做決定的更多活躍項目。因此，我們對 2023 年 STS 業務的良好表現仍然非常樂觀。

On advanced materials, I would say the momentum on Solstice continue. We see more application adoption in newer areas. As an example, heat pump is becoming another exciting area where we are developing new application. And that business is all about expanding new application and expanding new geographies. So we see that trend.

在先進材料方面，我想說 Solstice 的勢頭仍在繼續。我們在較新的領域看到了更多的應用程序採用。例如，熱泵正在成為我們開發新應用的另一個令人興奮的領域。而這項業務就是擴展新的應用程序和擴展新的地域。所以我們看到了這種趨勢。

There are pockets in advanced material where there is an economic headwind on residential side. So that's a smaller part of the business, but there are headwinds. There are pockets in electronic materials, where there's a server-related demand in PC. So we supply some products in that. But on an overall picture, advanced materials has a strong momentum. And you said it rightly, the momentum will continue in 2023 also.

在住宅方面存在經濟逆風的先進材料領域。所以這只是業務的一小部分，但也有不利因素。電子資料中有口袋，PC 中有與服務器相關的需求。所以我們提供了一些產品。但總體來看，新材料勢頭強勁。你說得對，這種勢頭也將在 2023 年繼續。

Yes. Maybe just to add a couple of things and a couple of specific numbers. I mean, our orders in Q4, particularly in our Fluorines business, were very, very strong, I think, double-digit strong. Our LST business is strong. UOP is well positioned for the year. Sparta business was extraordinarily strong on the acquisition we made in 2021. So all in all, I think it was a very strong orders quarter.

是的。也許只是添加一些內容和一些具體數字。我的意思是，我們在第四季度的訂單，特別是我們的氟業務，非常非常強勁，我認為是兩位數的強勁。我們的 LST 業務很強大。 UOP 在今年處於有利地位。由於我們在 2021 年進行的收購，Sparta 業務異常強勁。總而言之，我認為這是一個非常強勁的訂單季度。

As we pointed out on our track, if you remember, some of the very, very unusual cold weather that we faced around the Christmas time caused us some challenges in some of our process operations because, frankly, they're just not built to operate in 5-degree weather. That's not what you typically see in Louisiana in December. So all in all, I think that this is -- our AM and PMT business is well positioned. Good orders growth and strong performance should be expected.

正如我們在軌道上指出的那樣，如果您還記得的話，我們在聖誕節期間遇到的一些非常非常不尋常的寒冷天氣給我們的一些流程操作帶來了一些挑戰，因為坦率地說，它們並不是為了操作而建造的在 5 度的天氣裡。這不是您通常在 12 月在路易斯安那州看到的情況。所以總而言之，我認為這是——我們的 AM 和 PMT 業務定位良好。良好的訂單增長和強勁的業績應該是可以預期的。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague from Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeffrey Sprague。

Just a follow-up on Aero margins from me, if I could. Appreciate the color on the OEM incentives. Just trying to think about the next couple years also, if you can give us some directional help, right? It's not hard to imagine those incentives continue to escalate the next couple years as Boeing delivers more, but I think you might be getting some help going the other way in business jet or other parts of Aero. So can you just give us a sense of, is 2023 kind of peak headwind for incentives, how it might play out in '24 and '25?

如果可以的話，只是我對 Aero 利潤率的跟進。欣賞對OEM獎勵的顏色。只是想想想接下來的幾年，如果你能給我們一些方向性的幫助，對吧？不難想像，隨著波音公司交付更多產品，這些激勵措施在未來幾年會繼續升級，但我認為您可能會在公務機或 Aero 的其他部分獲得一些幫助。那麼，您能否告訴我們，2023 年是激勵措施的頂峰逆風，它在 24 年和 25 年可能會如何發揮作用？

Yes. Great question, Jeff, and your -- again, your instincts are on. This is a bubble, right, because they -- Boeing, in particular, was not able to deliver jets when they were grounded. And so that acceleration is going to go up and then come back down again.

是的。好問題，傑夫，你的 - 再說一次，你的直覺在起作用。這是一個泡沫，對吧，因為他們——尤其是波音公司，在停飛時無法交付噴氣式飛機。因此，加速度將上升，然後再次下降。

As we see it right now, it looks like '23 is going to be the top, and then it starts coming back down. But again, that's going to depend entirely on the pace of those deliveries. But it ought to be, let's say, reoriented back with deliveries in our view by 2025, for sure, and maybe into 2024. So this is going to be a temporary headwind, and then things will realign back where deliveries and shipments come back into line. And so therefore, our P&L will become more aligned.

正如我們現在所看到的，看起來 23 年將成為最高點，然後它開始回落。但同樣，這將完全取決於這些交付的速度。但它應該，比方說，在我們看來到 2025 年肯定會重新調整交付方向，也許到 2024 年。所以這將是一個暫時的逆風，然後事情會重新調整到交付和出貨量回到線。因此，我們的損益表將變得更加一致。

Yes. I think that's exactly right. I think that this is probably an unusual '23 headwind. But even with that headwind, we expect to modestly expand margins. But I think the most important thing that's missing here is we're very excited about the future of Aerospace. I mean, the orders are up. Backlog is way up. I mean, we think the next 3 years will be very exciting for Aero.

是的。我認為這是完全正確的。我認為這可能是 23 年不尋常的逆風。但即使有這樣的逆風，我們仍預計會適度擴大利潤率。但我認為這裡缺少的最重要的事情是我們對航空航天的未來感到非常興奮。我的意思是，訂單增加了。積壓的方式越來越多。我的意思是，我們認為未來 3 年對於 Aero 來說將是非常令人興奮的。

Supply chain is...

供應鍊是...

Supply chain is getting better. Our ISC teams have really demonstrated unlock of a lot of the capacity. And I think there's nothing other than to be excited for the next 3 years in Aerospace. It's -- I'm very confident in the backlog position, and it's going to be a really nice period for that business.

供應鏈越來越好。我們的 ISC 團隊確實展示了很多能力的釋放。而且我認為，除了對未來 3 年在航空航天領域感到興奮之外，別無他法。這是——我對積壓情況非常有信心，這對這項業務來說將是一個非常好的時期。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question will come from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Andrew Kaplowitz。

So you mentioned capital deployment in line with 3-year $25 billion plan for '23, I think, which would mean another year somewhat similar to '22. You deployed almost $8 billion of cash. Obviously, out there, you've got National Instruments conducting a strategic review, as I'm sure you know. If Honeywell were to consider to be quite a bit larger than you've done in the past there, so we know you have the financial capacity to do it, but you've been disciplined when you've done M&A and really stuck to more bolt-ons. Can you remind us of your return hurdles to do a larger acquisition and what, if any, strategic requirements you have to make a larger acquisition?

所以你提到了根據 23 年 3 年 250 億美元計劃進行的資本部署，我認為，這意味著又是與 22 年有點相似的一年。您部署了將近 80 億美元的現金。很明顯，你已經讓 National Instruments 進行了戰略審查，我相信你知道。如果霍尼韋爾考慮比你過去在那裡所做的要大得多，那麼我們知道你有能力做到這一點，但你在進行併購時受到了紀律處分並且真正堅持了更多螺栓固定。您能否提醒我們進行更大規模收購的回報障礙以及進行更大規模收購必須具備的戰略要求（如果有）？

Yes. I think good question. Yes. So I mean, obviously, we have a balance sheet that's strong. And over the last 2 years, we have, let's call it, roughly around $15 billion-plus to deploy it based on our 25 over the next 2 years, so we have the capacity. But I'd just point out a couple things.

是的。我認為這是個好問題。是的。所以我的意思是，很明顯，我們的資產負債表很強勁。在過去的 2 年裡，我們有大約 150 億美元以上的資金用於在未來 2 年內根據我們的 25 人部署它，因此我們有能力。但我只想指出幾件事。

Number one is we are disciplined in our approach. That's point one. So point two is we're a controls and automation and sustainability and digital company. And point three is we typically don't do hospital acquisitions. So we are interested in doing more M&A -- smart M&A in '23. I think you should expect that at some point. But it's going to be thoughtful. It's going to be acquired at a price where we have a lot of confidence in generating shareholder value. And it's going to be something that we can -- is truly strategic and fit what we do as a company.

第一，我們在方法上有紀律。這是第一點。所以第二點是我們是一家控制和自動化以及可持續發展和數字公司。第三點是我們通常不進行醫院收購。因此，我們有興趣在 23 年進行更多的併購——智能併購。我認為你應該在某個時候預料到這一點。但這將是深思熟慮的。它將以我們對創造股東價值充滿信心的價格收購。這將是我們可以做到的——真正具有戰略意義，適合我們作為一家公司所做的事情。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question will come from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

I understand you guys have above-average backlog right now, obviously, some longer-cycle businesses as well as supply chain. Any way we should think about backlog conversion this year? Or where do you guys think maybe backlog should end or hopefully end if you're able to start getting more product out the door? I think teasing out the demand environment versus the supply chain environment has been a bit of a trick here for a while.

我知道你們現在有高於平均水平的積壓，顯然，一些週期較長的業務以及供應鏈。我們應該考慮今年的積壓轉換嗎？或者，如果你們能夠開始推出更多產品，你們認為積壓應該在哪裡結束或希望結束？我認為梳理需求環境與供應鏈環境已經有一段時間了。

Yes. Maybe I'll start and I'll turn it over to Vimal. So first of all, we feel very good about the backlog because, if you sort of look at the backlog where we are in totality, it's about $3 billion to $4 billion more than what I call a normal state. If you go back 2, 3 years, if -- we can debate whether it's in that $3 billion to $5 billion more than normal. So the backlog position is very strong.

是的。也許我會開始，我會把它交給 Vimal。因此，首先，我們對積壓情況感覺非常好，因為如果你看一下我們總體上的積壓情況，它比我所說的正常狀態多出 30 億至 40 億美元。如果你回到 2、3 年，如果——我們可以討論它是否比正常情況多 30 億到 50 億美元。所以積壓的位置非常強大。

From a long-cycle perspective, Aero, especially PMT, very strong position. Even in the short-cycle businesses, which are predominantly HBT and SPS, we've got strong backlog through at least the first half of this year. We do expect an uptick as we go into the second half of this year in terms of some of those businesses because we have some unusual pull-forward order activity in the first half.

從長周期的角度來看，Aero，尤其是 PMT，處於非常強勢的地位。即使在主要是 HBT 和 SPS 的短週期業務中，我們至少在今年上半年也有大量積壓。我們確實預計在進入今年下半年時，其中一些業務會出現增長，因為我們在上半年有一些不尋常的提前訂單活動。

So especially as we get into the second half of this year, we don't know this yet, but we're cautiously optimistic it can actually be one of those unique periods where the short cycle and long cycle are turning at a really good pace. We have much more confidence in the first half based on the strength of the long cycle, and we expect an uptick in the second half in the short cycles (inaudible).

因此，尤其是當我們進入今年下半年時，我們還不知道這一點，但我們持謹慎樂觀的態度，它實際上可能是短週期和長周期以非常快的速度轉變的獨特時期之一.基於長周期的強度，我們對上半年更有信心，我們預計下半年短週期（聽不清）會有所上升。

So maybe to impress on that in addition, as we talked earlier, we do expect supply chain performance to get better both on the Aero supply chain and semiconductor constraint, which will mean that we can burn our past dues/backlog better than our -- what we did in '22. And we also expect that our project businesses will also execute on our backlog on a more determined basis because they also faced a lot of headwinds on supply chain constraints in 2022.

因此，也許要對此留下深刻印象，正如我們之前所說，我們確實希望供應鏈在航空供應鍊和半導體約束方面的表現會更好，這意味著我們可以比我們更好地燃燒過去的欠款/積壓 -我們在 22 年做了什麼。我們還預計我們的項目業務也將在更堅定的基礎上執行我們的積壓工作，因為他們在 2022 年也面臨著供應鏈限制方面的許多不利因素。

Where the backlog will land, it's just indirectly answering the question of orders forecast, and we don't guide that. But we remain optimistic. We're going to get our fair share of demand in the market that we can commit. And as long as market performs, we will perform the -- in line with the market.

backlog會落在哪裡，只是間接回答了訂單預測的問題，我們不做指導。但我們仍然保持樂觀。我們將在我們可以承諾的市場中獲得公平的需求份額。只要市場表現好，我們就會根據市場表現。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

I want to ask that last question maybe slightly differently because guidance is a little bit wider than normal. And so perhaps maybe under what scenario would you guys see yourselves coming in below the midpoint of the guidance -- the EPS guidance for the year?

我想問的最後一個問題可能略有不同，因為指導範圍比正常情況要寬一些。因此，也許在什麼情況下你們會看到自己低於指導的中點 - 今年的 EPS 指導？

Yes. I mean, I think -- first of all, let me -- there's a couple of questions. And the first one is, why is the guidance wider than normal? Because I think we would probably admit that in terms of the economic scenarios this year are probably a bit wider than most people guess. And you have anything ranging from a soft landing out there to a deep recession, and I've heard opinions anywhere in that range.

是的。我的意思是，我認為——首先，讓我——有幾個問題。第一個是，為什麼指導比正常情況更廣泛？因為我認為我們可能會承認，就今年的經濟情景而言，可能比大多數人猜測的要廣泛一些。從軟著陸到深度衰退，你有任何事情，我在這個範圍內的任何地方都聽到過意見。

So I just think from a Honeywell perspective -- and this is, I think, consistent of how we guide every year is -- and probably this year more than ever, we try to have a little bit of a wider range, which is indicative of the uncertainty around the economic conditions. And I would say if I were compare this year versus '22 or '21, it's probably more uncertainty rather than less. So that's sort of the reason for the wide range.

所以我只是從霍尼韋爾的角度思考——我認為，這與我們每年的指導方式是一致的——而且今年可能比以往任何時候都更多，我們試圖擴大範圍，這是指示性的經濟狀況的不確定性。我會說，如果我將今年與 22 年或 21 年進行比較，不確定性可能更多而不是更少。這就是范圍廣泛的原因。

In terms of the range, it's out, sure. At the lower end, it's probably -- it probably means that it's tougher economic conditions. The second half is the economic conditions turn worse. The short cycle is worse than we expect at the top end. It's a bit more of what we hope is the expectation, which is some of the order activity turns. Short cycle becomes more robust in the second half, and China returns to growth.

就範圍而言，它是肯定的。在低端，它可能 - 這可能意味著它的經濟狀況更加艱難。下半年是經濟狀況轉差。短週期比我們預期的高端更糟糕。多一點我們希望的是期待，也就是訂單活動的一些轉折。下半年短週期更加強勁，中國回歸增長。

I mean, we -- Q1 -- we actually think Q1 in China could be challenging because of the lifting of the COVID restrictions, Chinese New Year and so on. And we embedded that in our guide. But we actually think that second half in China could actually be quite strong. And if that comes to fruition, that sort of points to the upper end of our guide.

我的意思是，我們 - 第一季度 - 我們實際上認為中國的第一季度可能具有挑戰性，因為取消了 COVID 限制、農曆新年等。我們將其嵌入到我們的指南中。但我們實際上認為中國的下半年實際上可能相當強勁。如果這實現了，那將指向我們指南的上端。

So that's why we kind of have a bit of a wider range. And by the way, we did guide a wider range like this historically, of course, so it's not that much wider, and '22 was a little bit narrower. But I think it's just -- it's as simple as it's indicative of the economic uncertainty that I think many of us are facing. And there's a wide range of educated guess as to...

所以這就是為什麼我們有更廣泛的範圍。順便說一下，當然，我們在歷史上確實引導了一個更寬的範圍，所以它並沒有那麼寬，'22 有點窄。但我認為這只是——它很簡單，因為它表明了我認為我們許多人都面臨的經濟不確定性。並且有廣泛的有根據的猜測......

Yes. I think we'll know a lot more come June, right? I mean, as we talked about, I think we feel pretty good about where we are from a backlog position. And no one really knows what the level of activity in the economy will be. I mean, we've had some good things. The European winter has been more mild than people thought, and Europe's held up relatively well in versus what some may have figured it could be. But I think, as you said, we feel really good about where we are right now. And we'll continue to take that temperature as we go through the first 4 to 5 months of the year.

是的。我想我們會在六月份知道更多，對吧？我的意思是，正如我們所談到的，我認為我們對積壓的位置感到非常滿意。沒有人真正知道經濟活動的水平。我的意思是，我們有一些好東西。歐洲的冬天比人們想像的要溫和，而且歐洲的表現與一些人可能認為的相比相對較好。但我認為，正如你所說，我們對現在的處境感覺非常好。我們將在今年的前 4 到 5 個月繼續保持這種溫度。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。

Start with congrats on getting to the finish line on the NARCO Trust. That was a really long road. And I know you had to get all the approvals. So nice to see.

首先祝賀您到達 NARCO Trust 的終點線。那真是一條漫長的路。我知道你必須獲得所有批准。很高興看到。

Thank you, Deane.

謝謝你，迪恩。

Yes. I know, Anne, it's been a long road. But Honeywell was one of the first to pursue that trust, and you've got all the approvals with the plaintiffs and so forth. But great to see it derisked. And just a follow-up on the last question on the geography. Did anything really surprise you in the quarter in terms of the geographies? It seems like Europe -- was it just the weather that's not as dire on the energy side? But what were the surprises on the geographies? And what's baked in for '23 major geographies? I know you have a little bit on China, but if you could round that out, that'd be helpful.

是的。我知道，安妮，這是一條漫長的道路。但霍尼韋爾是最早追求這種信任的公司之一，而且你已經獲得了原告等的所有批准。但很高興看到它被貶低。只是關於地理的最後一個問題的跟進。就地理位置而言，本季度有什麼真正讓您感到驚訝的嗎？看起來像歐洲——只是能源方面的天氣沒有那麼糟糕嗎？但是地理上的驚喜是什麼？ “23 個主要地區”有什麼特點？我知道你對中國有一點了解，但如果你能總結一下，那會很有幫助。

Maybe I'll start, and Vimal will add any further commentary. I would say no major surprises, I mean, in terms of how we ended up. I mean, Europe was softer, particularly the U.K. was really soft in Q4. That probably stood out for us in Europe. But then as we looked at December, the exit rates weren't actually bad. So November and October were a bit weaker. December exit rates were better.

也許我會開始，Vimal 會添加任何進一步的評論。我的意思是，就我們的結局而言，我不會說有什麼大驚喜。我的意思是，歐洲比較疲軟，尤其是英國在第四季度真的很疲軟。在歐洲，這可能對我們來說很突出。但是當我們查看 12 月時，退出率實際上並不差。所以十一月和十月有點弱。 12 月的退出率更好。

In terms of the overall business performance, I mean, it was actually incredibly consistent with what we guided. I mean, we guided -- we came in roughly at the middle of our range, a little bit better on operating margin. I mean, we guide for a reason, and that's sort of where we ended.

就整體業務績效而言，我的意思是，它實際上與我們的指導非常一致。我的意思是，我們指導 - 我們大致處於我們範圍的中間，營業利潤率略好一些。我的意思是，我們指導是有原因的，這就是我們結束的地方。

And by the way, thank you for acknowledging the NARCO. I mean, I think as you kind of read the articles and some of the other companies out there, I can't understate how important -- or overstate how important it is to eliminate liabilities from your balance sheet. And when you can do that permanently with confidence, it substantially derisks the future of the company.

順便說一下，感謝您對 NARCO 的認可。我的意思是，我認為當你閱讀這些文章和其他一些公司時，我不能低估從你的資產負債表中消除負債的重要性——或高估它的重要性。當你可以自信地永久地做到這一點時，它就會大大降低公司未來的風險。

I think maybe this didn't get as much offense as I think it should have because it was a huge deal. It hit up a lot of bandwidth. But I am thrilled to have this liability reduced off the balance sheet. Vimal, if you...

我想也許這並沒有像我認為的那樣受到冒犯，因為這是一件大事。它佔用了大量帶寬。但我很高興這項負債從資產負債表中減少。維馬爾，如果你...

So I think the only thing I'll add is that I think everybody is aware of commentary on U.S. and Europe, so I won't repeat it. But high-growth regions represent a very large part of Honeywell revenue. We do expect China to have a strong growth in 2023. We are cautious in Q1 but very optimistic for the year.

所以我想我唯一要補充的是，我想每個人都知道對美國和歐洲的評論，所以我就不再重複了。但高增長地區佔霍尼韋爾收入的很大一部分。我們確實預計中國將在 2023 年實現強勁增長。我們對第一季度持謹慎態度，但對今年非常樂觀。

But other high-growth region markets, we are confident on good growth. Middle East, we have good backlog and a very strong pipeline for orders. India, we remain very optimistic. Turkey, Central Asia, we remain very optimistic, ASEAN. So overall, that part of the world should offset some of the headwinds we see in Europe, and that's what we are kind of dialing in into our planning process.

但其他高增長區域市場，我們對良好增長充滿信心。中東，我們有大量積壓訂單和非常強大的訂單渠道。印度，我們仍然非常樂觀。土耳其、中亞、東盟，我們仍然非常樂觀。因此，總的來說，世界的那一部分應該抵消我們在歐洲看到的一些不利因素，這就是我們在規劃過程中要考慮的問題。

That does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Darius Adamczyk for any closing remarks.

這確實結束了我們的問答環節。現在，我想將會議轉回給 Darius Adamczyk，聽取任何閉幕詞。

I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered strong fourth quarter results and continue to navigate effectively through multiple uncertainties with the typical level of operational rigor you've come to expect from Honeywell. Our future is bright, and we look forward to discussing this further at our upcoming Investor Day in May.

我要感謝我們的股東一直以來的支持。我們在第四季度取得了強勁的業績，並繼續以您對霍尼韋爾所期望的典型嚴謹運營水平，有效應對多重不確定性。我們的未來是光明的，我們期待在即將到來的 5 月投資者日進一步討論這個問題。

Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy. Thank you.

謝謝大家的聆聽，請保持安全和健康。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。