漢威聯合 (HON) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's Third Quarter Earnings Release. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Reena Vaidya, Director of Investor Relations. Reena, please go ahead.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎收看霍尼韋爾第三季度收益發布。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。我現在想介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係總監 Reena Vaidya。麗娜，請繼續。

Thank you, Ari. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. Also joining us are Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Anne Madden; and Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, Torsten Pilz.

謝謝你，阿里。早上好，歡迎來到霍尼韋爾 2021 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天與我通話的是董事長兼首席執行官 Darius Adamczyk；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Greg Lewis。加入我們的還有高級副總裁兼總法律顧問 Anne Madden； Torsten Pilz 高級副總裁兼首席供應鏈官。

This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Honeywell also uses our website as a means of disclosing information, which may be of interest or material to our investors for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcast and social media.

我們的網站 www.honeywell.com/investor 提供此電話會議和網絡廣播，包括任何非 GAAP 對賬。霍尼韋爾還使用我們的網站作為披露信息的方式，這些信息可能對我們的投資者感興趣或重要，以遵守 FD 條例規定的披露義務。因此，除了關注我們的新聞稿、SEC 備案文件、公開電話會議、網絡廣播和社交媒體之外，投資者還應關注我們的投資者關係網站。

Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identified the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-Q and other SEC filings.

請注意，本演示文稿的內容包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。這些要素可能會根據許多因素而發生變化，包括不斷變化的經濟和商業條件，我們要求您從這個角度來解讀它們。我們在 10-Q 表格和其他美國證券交易委員會備案的年度報告中確定了可能影響我們業績的主要風險和不確定性。

This morning, we will review our financial results for the third quarter of 2021, share our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2021 and share some preliminary thoughts on 2022 plan. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end.

今天上午，我們將回顧 2021 年第三季度的財務業績，分享我們對 2021 年第四季度和全年的指引，並分享對 2022 年計劃的一些初步想法。與往常一樣，我們會在最後留出時間回答您的問題。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給董事長兼首席執行官 Darius Adamczyk。

Thank you, Reena, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin on Slide 2. Our outstanding discipline and execution enabled us to deliver third quarter results that met or exceeded our financial guidance in an increasingly challenging environment. We achieved the high end of our third quarter adjusted earnings per share guidance range and exceeded the high end of our segment margin guidance by 60 basis points despite significant headwinds from inflation, and supply chain constraints, which tampered down our top line growth potential.

謝謝你，Reena，大家早上好。讓我們從幻燈片 2 開始。我們出色的紀律和執行力使我們能夠在日益具有挑戰性的環境中交付達到或超過我們財務指導的第三季度業績。我們實現了第三季度調整後每股收益指導範圍的高端，並且超出了我們部門利潤率指導的高端 60 個基點，儘管通貨膨脹和供應鏈限制帶來了巨大的阻力，這削弱了我們的收入增長潛力。

Despite that, organic sales were up 8% year-over-year driven by double-digit organic growth in Safety and Productivity Solutions, the commercial aerospace aftermarket from Advanced Materials and UOP. Segment margin expanded 130 basis points to 21.2% driven by strong actions that we took across the portfolio to address the headwinds we faced from inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions. Specifically, we've continued to operate our strong productivity playbook. We took swift pricing action that allowed us to stay ahead of the inflation curve. We drove a 4% increase year-over-year in -- on the top line and yielded approximately 40 basis points of margin expansion net of inflation.

儘管如此，在先進材料和 UOP 的商業航空航天售後市場安全和生產力解決方案的兩位數有機增長的推動下，有機銷售額同比增長了 8%。部門利潤率擴大 130 個基點至 21.2%，這得益於我們在整個投資組合中採取的強有力行動，以應對我們面臨的通脹壓力和供應鏈中斷帶來的不利因素。具體來說，我們繼續運行我們強大的生產力手冊。我們採取了迅速的定價行動，使我們能夠領先於通脹曲線。我們在收入方面實現了 4% 的同比增長，扣除通貨膨脹後的利潤率增長了大約 40 個基點。

Adjusted earnings per share was $2.02, up 29% year-over-year, achieving the high end of our guidance range. We delivered a strong third quarter despite a volatile backdrop that included a hurricane in our PMT factory corridor, power blackouts in China and the persistent and ongoing impacts on the supply chain more broadly. I am pleased of our disciplined execution, which enabled us to navigate the challenges in the macroeconomic environment and capitalize on the ongoing recovery in our end markets. I continue to be encouraged by the strength we are seeing in many areas of our portfolio.

調整後每股收益為 2.02 美元，同比增長 29%，達到我們指導範圍的高端。儘管 PMT 工廠走廊遭遇颶風、中國停電以及對更廣泛的供應鏈持續不斷的影響等動蕩的背景，我們仍實現了強勁的第三季度業績。我對我們嚴格的執行感到高興，這使我們能夠應對宏觀經濟環境中的挑戰，並利用我們終端市場的持續復甦。我們在投資組合的許多領域看到的實力繼續讓我感到鼓舞。

Orders across Honeywell are up high single digits year-over-year organic, excluding the impact of COVID-related mask business, which has seen significant demand decline since the pandemic has been subsiding. Orders across Honeywell were up double digits year-over-year. Backlog was up 7% to $27.5 billion and up 9%, excluding the impact of COVID mask orders, driven by strength in many of our segments and positioning us to deliver next phase of the recovery as we head into 2022. As always, we continue to execute on our rigorous and proven value creation framework that drives outstanding shareholder value.

霍尼韋爾的訂單同比有機增長高個位數，不包括與 COVID 相關的口罩業務的影響，該業務自大流行消退以來需求大幅下降。霍尼韋爾的訂單同比增長兩位數。積壓訂單增長 7% 至 275 億美元，不包括 COVID 口罩訂單的影響，增長了 9%，這得益於我們許多細分市場的實力，並使我們能夠在進入 2022 年時實現下一階段的複蘇。一如既往，我們繼續執行我們嚴格且經過驗證的價值創造框架，以推動卓越的股東價值。

Now let's turn to Slide 3 to discuss some of our exciting recent announcements. Last month, United Airlines and Honeywell announced a joint multimillion dollar investment in Alder Fuels, powering the biggest sustainable fuel agreement in aviation history. Alder Fuels is a clean tech company that is pioneering first-of-its-kind technologies from producing sustainable aviation fuel or SAF at scale.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 3 來討論我們最近發布的一些激動人心的消息。上個月，美國聯合航空公司和霍尼韋爾宣布聯合投資 Alder Fuels 數百萬美元，為航空史上最大的可持續燃料協議提供支持。 Alder Fuels 是一家清潔技術公司，在大規模生產可持續航空燃料或 SAF 方面率先開創了同類技術。

When used together across the fuel life cycle, the Alder technologies, coupled with Honeywell's Ecofining process, have the ability to produce a carbon-negative alternative to today's jet fuels. As part of the agreement, United is committing to purchase 1.5 billion gallons of SAF when produced to United's requirement, which is 1.5x the size of the known purchase commitments of all global airlines combined, making this easily the largest publicly announced SAF agreement in aviation history and demonstrating the power of Honeywell technologies continue to bring to the oncoming global energy transition.

當在整個燃料生命週期中一起使用時，Alder 技術與霍尼韋爾的 Ecofining 工藝相結合，能夠生產出當今噴氣燃料的低碳替代品。作為協議的一部分，美聯航承諾購買 15 億加侖按美聯航要求生產的 SAF，這是全球所有航空公司已知採購承諾總和的 1.5 倍，這很容易成為航空業公開宣布的最大 SAF 協議歷史和展示霍尼韋爾技術的力量繼續為即將到來的全球能源轉型帶來。

We also recently announced the acquisition of Performix, a provider of manufacturing execution system or MES software for the pharmaceutical manufacturing and biotech industries. This acquisition builds on our strategy to create the world's leading integrated software platform for customers within the life sciences industry who are striving to achieve faster compliance, improved reliability and better production throughput at the highest levels of quality. The Performix MES software joins Honeywell's large and growing portfolio of automation solutions for the life sciences industry, including Sparta System's quality management software and Honeywell's Experion Process Knowledge System. The combined offerings will address life sciences' customer needs across the product life cycles, from automation project execution to optimal production to sustainable quality.

我們最近還宣布收購 Performix，這是一家為製藥和生物技術行業提供製造執行系統或 MES 軟件的供應商。此次收購基於我們的戰略，即為生命科學行業的客戶創建世界領先的集成軟件平台，這些客戶正在努力以最高質量水平實現更快的合規性、更高的可靠性和更高的生產吞吐量。 Performix MES 軟件加入了霍尼韋爾面向生命科學行業的龐大且不斷增長的自動化解決方案組合，其中包括 Sparta System 的質量管理軟件和霍尼韋爾的 Experion Process Knowledge System。合併後的產品將滿足生命科學客戶在整個產品生命週期的需求，從自動化項目執行到優化生產再到可持續質量。

Lastly, we unveiled an all-new aircraft cockpit system earlier this month called Honeywell Anthem, the first in the industry build with an always-on cloud connected experience that improves flight efficiency, operations, safety and comfort. Honeywell Anthem offers unprecedented levels of connectivity and exciting and intuitive interface model after everyday smart devices in a highly scalable and customizable design.

最後，我們在本月早些時候推出了名為 Honeywell Anthem 的全新飛機駕駛艙系統，這是業內首個具有始終在線雲連接體驗的系統，可提高飛行效率、操作、安全性和舒適性。 Honeywell Anthem 以高度可擴展和可定制的設計，提供前所未有的連接性和令人興奮的直觀界面模型，僅次於日常智能設備。

This next-generation flight deck is powered by a flexible software platform that can be customized for virtually every type of aircraft and flying vehicle, including a large passenger and cargo planes, business jets, helicopters, general aviation aircraft and the rapidly emerging class of advanced air mobility vehicles. In fact, Honeywell Anthem has already been selected by Vertical Aerospace and Lilium with their vertical takeoff and landing all-electric aircraft. As these announcements highlight, we're continuously innovating and enhancing our portfolio of exciting new technologies align to our long-term strategic objectives.

這種下一代飛行甲板由一個靈活的軟件平台提供支持，該平台幾乎可以針對每種類型的飛機和飛行器進行定制，包括大型客機和貨機、公務機、直升機、通用航空飛機和迅速崛起的先進飛機。空中機動車輛。事實上，Honeywell Anthem 已經被 Vertical Aerospace 和 Lilium 的垂直起降全電動飛機選中。正如這些公告所強調的那樣，我們正在不斷創新和增強我們令人興奮的新技術組合，以符合我們的長期戰略目標。

Now let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 4 to discuss our third quarter results in more detail.

現在讓我把它交給幻燈片 4 上的 Greg，更詳細地討論我們第三季度的結果。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. As Darius highlighted, we executed with the typical level of rigor that you have come to expect from Honeywell and delivered on our commitments despite a challenging backdrop.

謝謝大家，早上好。正如 Darius 強調的那樣，我們以您對霍尼韋爾的期望的典型嚴謹程度執行，並在充滿挑戰的背景下兌現了我們的承諾。

Our third quarter was strong with sales up 8% organically to $8.5 billion; segment margins expanding 130 basis points to 21.2%, resulting in 36% incremental margins; and free cash flow of more than $900 million, up 20% year-on-year. Our third quarter performance demonstrates our ability to deliver for our shareholders in all environments.

我們的第三季度表現強勁，銷售額有機增長 8% 至 85 億美元；部門利潤率擴大 130 個基點至 21.2%，導致利潤率增加 36%；自由現金流超過 9 億美元，同比增長 20%。我們第三季度的業績證明了我們在所有環境中為股東提供服務的能力。

Now let's take a minute to discuss how each of the segments contributed to that. Starting with Aerospace, third quarter sales were up 2% organically as the ongoing recovery in flight hours drove another quarter of strong double-digit commercial aerospace aftermarket growth. As expected, air transport aftermarket sales continued to gain momentum, growing more than 10% sequentially from the second quarter and growing 40% year-over-year. Commercial original equipment returned to growth in the quarter driven by strong demand for business jets. The growth in commercial aerospace was partially offset by Defense & Space, which was down 17% in the quarter primarily due to supply chain constraints, which limited our deliveries. Excluding those impacts, Defense & Space would have been down mid-single digits in the quarter, an improvement versus the first half run rate.

現在讓我們花點時間討論一下每個細分市場是如何對此做出貢獻的。從航空航天開始，第三季度銷售額有機增長 2%，因為飛行時數的持續恢復推動了另一個季度商業航空航天售後市場強勁的兩位數增長。正如預期的那樣，航空運輸售後市場銷售繼續保持增長勢頭，比第二季度環比增長 10% 以上，同比增長 40%。在對公務機的強勁需求的推動下，商用原始設備在本季度恢復增長。商業航空航天的增長被國防與航天部分抵消，該部門在本季度下降了 17%，這主要是由於供應鏈限制，這限制了我們的交付。如果排除這些影響，國防與航天部門本季度的業績將下降中等個位數，與上半年的運行率相比有所改善。

Aerospace segment margins expanded 390 basis points to 27.1%, driven by growth in our high-margin aftermarket business, strong productivity from our lower cost base and pricing. Building Technologies sales were up 3% organically driven by broad-based demand across the building products portfolio as well as continued growth in Building Solutions services. Orders were up double digits year-over-year for the fourth straight quarter driven by demand for fire products, building management systems and projects. Backlog for Building Solutions services was up over 35% year-over-year, positioning the business for growth into 2022. In addition, our healthy buildings portfolio maintained strong customer momentum with approximately $100 million of orders in the quarter, bringing year-to-date orders to $250 million. HBT segment margins expanded 190 basis points to 23.5%, driven by pricing and productivity, partially offset by inflation.

航空航天部門的利潤率增長了 390 個基點，達到 27.1%，這得益於我們高利潤的售後市場業務的增長、我們較低的成本基礎和定價帶來的強勁生產力。受建築產品組合廣泛需求以及建築解決方案服務持續增長的推動，建築技術銷售額有機增長 3%。受消防產品、建築管理系統和項目需求的推動，訂單連續第四個季度同比增長兩位數。建築解決方案服務的積壓訂單同比增長超過 35%，為 2022 年的業務增長奠定了基礎。此外，我們健康的建築產品組合保持強勁的客戶勢頭，本季度訂單量約為 1 億美元，實現了同比增長日期訂單達到 2.5 億美元。 HBT 部門利潤率擴大 190 個基點至 23.5%，受定價和生產力的推動，部分被通貨膨脹所抵消。

In PMT, sales were up 9% organically, led by 29% growth in UOP and 14% growth in Advanced Materials. UOP sales growth was driven by higher petrochemical catalyst shipments, and their backlog grew double digits year-over-year, which should drive growth well into 2022.

在 PMT 中，銷售額有機增長 9%，其中 UOP 增長 29%，先進材料增長 14%。 UOP 的銷售增長受到石化催化劑出貨量增加的推動，其積壓訂單同比增長兩位數，這應該會推動增長到 2022 年。

Process Solutions sales were down 2% organically as the recovery in projects has lagged, partially offset by high single-digit growth in Thermal Solutions and Lifecycle Solutions & Services. HPS orders were up 20% year-over-year, driven by broad-based demand across the portfolio, providing confidence in the longer-term outlook for the business. PMT segment margins expanded 260 basis points to 22.2% in the quarter driven by pricing, strong operating leverage and a healthy mix of UOP.

由於項目復甦滯後，過程解決方案銷售額有機下降 2%，部分被熱解決方案和生命週期解決方案與服務的高個位數增長所抵消。 HPS 訂單同比增長 20%，受產品組合廣泛需求的推動，為業務的長期前景提供了信心。在定價、強大的運營槓桿和健康的 UOP 組合的推動下，本季度 PMT 部門的利潤率擴大了 260 個基點，達到 22.2%。

In Safety and Productivity Solutions, despite battling supply chain and inflation challenges, sales were up 21% organically, driven by another quarter of double-digit Warehouse and Workflow Solutions growth, Productivity Solutions and Services growth and gas analysis growth. Orders in these 3 businesses were also up double digits year-over-year, resulting in a robust SPS backlog of more than $4 billion. Personal Protective Equipment sales declined year-over-year as mask demand declined meaningfully. This was partially offset by growth in the hearing, gloves and fall protection categories. SPS segment margins contracted 70 basis points to 13.2% driven by unfavorable business mix, which, combined with targeted investments and supply chain challenges in Intelligrated, drove inefficiencies in manufacturing installation as the business has been scaling to outsized growth, which was 60% organically this quarter.

在安全和生產力解決方案方面，儘管面臨著供應鍊和通貨膨脹的挑戰，但銷售額有機增長了 21%，這得益於另外四分之一的兩位數倉庫和工作流解決方案增長、生產力解決方案和服務增長以及氣體分析增長。這 3 家企業的訂單也同比增長兩位數，導致 SPS 訂單積壓超過 40 億美元。由於口罩需求大幅下降，個人防護設備銷售額同比下降。這部分被聽力、手套和墜落保護類別的增長所抵消。 SPS 部門的利潤率在不利的業務組合的推動下收縮 70 個基點至 13.2%，再加上 Intelligrated 的目標投資和供應鏈挑戰，導致製造安裝效率低下，因為該業務已經擴展到超大規模增長，今年有機增長率為 60%四分之一。

Finally, growth across our portfolio was underpinned by continued progress in Honeywell Connected Enterprise. Our connected buildings and cyber solutions delivered another quarter of double-digit organic growth, and third quarter recurring revenue growth was once again up double digits year-over-year. So overall, we delivered strong organic sales growth, drove 130 basis points of improvement in segment margins, 60 basis points above the high end of our guidance despite the challenging environment. For the quarter, we delivered GAAP earnings per share of $1.80 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.02, up 29% year-over-year, achieving the high end of our guidance.

最後，我們產品組合的增長得益於霍尼韋爾互聯企業的持續進步。我們的互聯建築和網絡解決方案又實現了四分之一的兩位數有機增長，第三季度經常性收入同比再次增長兩位數。因此，總體而言，儘管環境充滿挑戰，但我們實現了強勁的有機銷售增長，推動部門利潤率提高了 130 個基點，比我們指導的高端高出 60 個基點。本季度，我們公佈的 GAAP 每股收益為 1.80 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.02 美元，同比增長 29%，達到了我們指引的上限。

A bridge from 3Q '20 adjusted EPS to 3Q '21 adjusted EPS can be found in the appendix of this presentation, which includes reference to a $160 million noncash charge related to ongoing UOP matters that are described in our Form 10-Q. The majority of our year-over-year adjusted earnings growth of $0.26 was driven by our strong segment profit improvement. Below-the-line items were a $0.13 tailwind driven by lower repositioning and higher pension income. A lower effective tax rate of 22.9% and lower weighted average share count of 699 million shares drove a $0.04 and $0.03 benefit, respectively.

從 20 年第三季度調整後的每股收益到 21 年第三季度調整後的每股收益之間的橋樑可以在本演示文稿的附錄中找到，其中包括與我們的 10-Q 表格中描述的正在進行的 UOP 事項相關的 1.6 億美元非現金費用。我們 0.26 美元的同比調整後收益增長的大部分是由我們強勁的部門利潤改善推動的。在較低的重新定位和較高的養老金收入的推動下，線下項目上漲了 0.13 美元。較低的 22.9% 有效稅率和較低的 6.99 億股加權平均股數分別帶來了 0.04 美元和 0.03 美元的收益。

We generated $900 million of free cash flow in the quarter and -- as increased earnings -- excuse me, increase in working capital due to growth of the business and related supply chain challenges tamped that down a bit. Finally, we strategically deployed $1.5 billion primarily to share repurchases, dividends and CapEx in the third quarter, which significantly exceeded operating cash flow. We paid $646 million in dividends, deployed $208 million to capital expenditures and reduced $650 million of Honeywell shares, reducing our weighted average share count to 699 million. Total capital deployment was up 44% year-over-year. In all, this was another strong quarter under difficult circumstances. We continue to manage through the multi-speed recovery across our portfolio, making disciplined investments for the future and meeting or exceeding our commitments while proactively addressing macroeconomic challenges.

我們在本季度產生了 9 億美元的自由現金流，而且——隨著收入的增加——對不起，由於業務增長和相關供應鏈挑戰導致的營運資金增加，這略有下降。最後，我們在第三季度戰略性地部署了 15 億美元，主要用於股票回購、股息和資本支出，這大大超過了運營現金流。我們支付了 6.46 億美元的股息，部署了 2.08 億美元的資本支出，並減少了 6.5 億美元的霍尼韋爾股票，使我們的加權平均股票數量減少到 6.99 億。總資本部署同比增長 44%。總而言之，這是艱難環境下的又一個強勁季度。我們繼續管理我們投資組合的多速復蘇，為未來進行有紀律的投資，實現或超越我們的承諾，同時積極應對宏觀經濟挑戰。

With that, let's turn to Slide 5 to discuss the impact of the supply chain constraints we're facing and how Honeywell is adapting to address those challenges. As we saw last quarter, the world continues to face persistent supply chain challenges as the sourcing environment for direct materials and electrical components continues to be tight, logistics capacity remains strained and labor availability becomes more challenging, all driving constraints in operating and inflationary pressures on our cost base. Semiconductors remain an acute problem due to a structural disconnect between supply and demand driven by canceled industrial and automotive orders during COVID-19 as well as unplanned growth of 5G, personal computing and consumer electronics. We've also started feeling pressure in Aerospace as the supply chain broadly ramps up more slowly than needed, leading to parts challenges due to deteriorating supplier delivery.

有了這個，讓我們轉到幻燈片 5 來討論我們面臨的供應鏈限制的影響以及霍尼韋爾如何適應這些挑戰。正如我們在上個季度看到的那樣，世界繼續面臨持續的供應鏈挑戰，因為直接材料和電氣元件的採購環境持續緊張，物流能力仍然緊張，勞動力供應變得更具挑戰性，所有這些都在推動運營和通脹壓力的限制我們的成本基礎。由於 COVID-19 期間取消的工業和汽車訂單以及 5G、個人計算和消費電子產品的計劃外增長導致供需結構性脫節，半導體仍然是一個嚴重的問題。我們也開始感受到航空航天領域的壓力，因為供應鏈的增長普遍比需要的慢，導致供應商交付惡化導致零部件挑戰。

While we have been mitigating the overall risk by proactively partnering with distributors and alternative suppliers, the challenges accelerated in the last quarter, constraining growth in some of our businesses. The most affected businesses in our portfolio are SPS, Aerospace and HPT. We provide guidance ranges for our quarterly and annual outlook in order to incorporate an adequate level of risk for things just such as this as we see these dynamics in the last few quarters. We are managing the situation aggressively on a daily basis and have deployed the full strength of our reengineering efforts to qualify alternative parts, which has mitigated some risk on our Productivity Solutions and Services, Advanced Sensing and Fire businesses.

雖然我們一直在通過積極與分銷商和替代供應商合作來降低整體風險，但上個季度挑戰加劇，限制了我們某些業務的增長。我們投資組合中受影響最大的業務是 SPS、航空航天和 HPT。我們為我們的季度和年度展望提供指導範圍，以便在過去幾個季度看到這些動態時，為諸如此類的事情納入足夠的風險水平。我們每天都在積極應對這種情況，並已充分利用我們的再設計努力來鑑定替代零件，這減輕了我們的生產力解決方案和服務、高級傳感和消防業務的一些風險。

We created tiger teams using advanced digital tools to track shortages and deploy a number of actions to liberate supply in the market. We also continue to mitigate inflation in materials, freight and labor in our operations through targeted regular pricing actions. For the longer term, we're developing dual-sourced platforming strategies and executing long-term supply agreements with some of our key suppliers. This, coupled with strengthening direct engagement with the semiconductor OEMs and foundries, will improve our ability to secure increased volumes in the future. We do expect this environment to persist into the fourth quarter and the first half of '22. We'll continue to adapt as we manage through this period.

我們創建了老虎團隊，使用先進的數字工具來跟踪短缺情況，並採取一系列行動來釋放市場供應。我們還通過有針對性的定期定價行動，繼續減輕我們運營中材料、運費和勞動力的通貨膨脹。從長遠來看，我們正在製定雙源平台戰略，並與我們的一些主要供應商簽訂長期供應協議。這一點，再加上加強與半導體原始設備製造商和鑄造廠的直接接觸，將提高我們在未來確保增加產量的能力。我們確實預計這種環境會持續到第四季度和 22 年上半年。我們將在這段時期內繼續適應。

With that, let's turn to Slide 6 to talk about our expectations for the fourth quarter. As we enter the fourth quarter and given the ongoing challenges I mentioned, we expect sales to be in the range of $8.5 billion to $8.9 billion, down 4% to flat on an organic basis, which includes the impact of the COVID-19-driven mask sales decline. Excluding this impact, organic sales would be down 2% to up 2% organically. We would also normally see a seasonal step up from the third to the fourth quarter, which this year will be somewhat dampened by the unique calendar impact of having more days in the third quarter than we do in 4Q.

有了這個，讓我們轉向幻燈片 6 來談談我們對第四季度的期望。當我們進入第四季度並考慮到我提到的持續挑戰時，我們預計銷售額將在 85 億美元至 89 億美元之間，有機地下降 4% 至持平，其中包括 COVID-19 驅動的影響口罩銷量下滑。排除這一影響，有機銷售額將下降 2% 至 2%。我們通常還會看到從第三季度到第四季度的季節性增長，今年第三季度的天數比第四季度多的獨特日曆影響將在一定程度上抑制這種增長。

In Aerospace, we expect our commercial business to continue to improve as business aviation and air transport flight hours continue to accelerate, driving continued sequential and year-over-year growth in the commercial aftermarket sales. The pace of the air transport acceleration will continue to vary regionally with domestic travel recovering faster than international. Commercial original equipment build rates will also continue to progress gradually. Defense & Space sales will be down due to lower demand from U.S. DoD programs driven by moderating U.S. defense spend and soft international defense volumes. We will continue to manage through the constraints as the Aerospace supply base ramps up, but we are expecting to miss out on potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shipments due to these continued challenges in Q4. We now expect organic sales growth to be down mid-single digits for the year in Aerospace.

在航空航天領域，我們預計我們的商業業務將繼續改善，因為公務航空和航空運輸飛行時數繼續加快，推動商業售後市場銷售額持續連續和同比增長。航空運輸加速的步伐將繼續因地區而異，國內旅行的恢復速度快於國際旅行。商業原始設備製造率也將繼續逐步提高。由於美國國防開支放緩和國際國防數量疲軟，美國國防部計劃的需求下降，國防與航天銷售額將下降。隨著航空航天供應基地的擴大，我們將繼續克服這些限制，但由於第四季度的這些持續挑戰，我們預計可能會錯過價值數億美元的出貨量。我們現在預計航空航天領域今年的有機銷售增長將下降到中等個位數。

In Building Technologies, we expect continued strong demand across the portfolio as the world continues to reopen and sustainability solutions take hold, driving sales and orders growth in the fourth quarter. We will face ongoing pressures from the supply chain constraints, but continue to work our mitigation actions as we anticipate mid-single-digit sales growth for the year. In PMT, we see continued strength in the short-cycle HPS businesses, though this will be tempered by the slower recovery in projects. Our strong orders growth in the third quarter will support a growth acceleration into '22. For UOP, we're pleased with our robust 3Q performance and expect continued growth into the fourth quarter and into '22, supported by the strong backlog, which is up double digits year-over-year.

在建築技術方面，我們預計隨著世界繼續重新開放和可持續發展解決方案佔據主導地位，整個產品組合的需求將持續強勁，從而推動第四季度的銷售和訂單增長。我們將面臨來自供應鏈限制的持續壓力，但我們會繼續採取緩解措施，因為我們預計今年的銷售額將實現中個位數增長。在 PMT 中，我們看到短週期 HPS 業務持續走強，儘管這將受到項目復甦放緩的影響。我們在第三季度強勁的訂單增長將支持增長加速到 22 年。對於 UOP，我們對我們強勁的第三季度業績感到滿意，並預計在強勁積壓訂單的支持下，第四季度和 22 年將繼續增長，同比增長兩位數。

Last, we expect continued healthy demand for products across the Advanced Materials portfolio. We expect PMT organic sales to be up low single digits for the year.

最後，我們預計先進材料產品組合的產品需求將持續健康增長。我們預計 PMT 有機銷售額今年將增長低個位數。

In Safety and Productivity Solutions, we expect another quarter of robust growth in our Warehouse and Workflow Solutions and Productivity Solutions and Services businesses. In our Productivity Solutions and Services business, we just have an outstanding year. Backlog remains up triple digits year-over-year, which, combined with our Intelligrated backlog that is over $2.4 billion, gives us confidence in these businesses for the remainder of '21 and into '22. Mask demand has accelerated as expected as the world recovers from the pandemic, though we will partially offset the softness with strengths in other areas of the PPE portfolio. Finally, we expect to see strength in our short-cycle gas analysis and advanced sensing businesses driven by double-digit orders growth in the third quarter. We'll continue to manage through this challenging supply environment, which will impact our growth potential, but we'll record strong double-digit growth for the year.

在安全和生產力解決方案方面，我們預計我們的倉庫和工作流程解決方案以及生產力解決方案和服務業務將再有四分之一的強勁增長。在我們的生產力解決方案和服務業務中，我們剛剛度過了出色的一年。積壓訂單同比增長三位數，再加上我們超過 24 億美元的 Intelligrated 積壓訂單，使我們在 21 年剩餘時間和 22 年對這些業務充滿信心。隨著世界從大流行中復蘇，口罩需求如預期般加速增長，儘管我們將通過 PPE 產品組合其他領域的優勢部分抵消疲軟。最後，我們預計在第三季度兩位數的訂單增長推動下，我們的短週期氣體分析和先進傳感業務將走強。我們將繼續應對這一充滿挑戰的供應環境，這將影響我們的增長潛力，但我們今年將實現兩位數的強勁增長。

Now let me turn to our expectations for our other core guided metrics. For our fourth quarter segment margins, we expect to be in the range of 21.2% to 21.7%, up 10 to 60 basis points year-over-year. We expect margins to continue to benefit from pricing actions ahead of inflation, volume leverage and ongoing productivity from our streamlined cost base despite the headwinds from unfavorable business mix in Intelligrated and efficiency challenges due to the supply chain environment. Fourth quarter net below-the-line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income tax -- and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative $10 million to negative $95 million with a range of repositioning between approximately $140 million and [$215] million as we continue to fund ongoing restructuring projects. We expect the effective tax rate to be approximately 20% and average share count to be approximately 698 million shares. As a result, we expect fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share between $2.03 and $2.13, down 2% to up 3% year-over-year.

現在讓我談談我們對其他核心指導指標的期望。對於我們第四季度的分部利潤率，我們預計將在 21.2% 至 21.7% 之間，同比增長 10 至 60 個基點。儘管 Intelligrated 不利的業務組合和供應鏈環境帶來的效率挑戰帶來不利因素，但我們預計利潤率將繼續受益於通貨膨脹之前的定價行動、數量槓桿和我們簡化的成本基礎的持續生產力。第四季度淨線下影響，即分部利潤和所得稅與稅前收入之間的差額，預計在負 1000 萬美元至負 9500 萬美元之間，重新定位的範圍約為 140 美元億美元和 [215] 億美元，因為我們繼續為正在進行的重組項目提供資金。我們預計實際稅率約為 20%，平均股數約為 6.98 億股。因此，我們預計第四季度調整後每股收益在 2.03 美元至 2.13 美元之間，同比下降 2% 至 3%。

Given these fourth quarter expectations, full year organic sales growth will be in the range of 4% to 5%, narrowing the range we provided last quarter to $34.2 billion to $34.6 billion. We are once again raising the low end of our segment margin guidance by 10 basis points for the year to a new range of 20.9% to 21.1%, representing expansion of 50 to 70 basis points for the year. We expect margin expansion in Aero, HPT and PMT as we carefully invest back into the business while managing the multi-speed recovery across the portfolio. Our fixed cost management remains a focus, and we are tracking favorably to the permanent reduction of $1 billion of fixed costs from our 2020 cost actions.

鑑於第四季度的這些預期，全年有機銷售額增長將在 4% 至 5% 之間，將我們上季度提供的範圍縮小至 342 億美元至 346 億美元。我們再次將本年度分部利潤率指引的下限提高 10 個基點，達到 20.9% 至 21.1% 的新範圍，相當於本年度擴大了 50 至 70 個基點。我們預計 Aero、HPT 和 PMT 的利潤率會增加，因為我們謹慎地投資回業務，同時管理整個投資組合的多速復蘇。我們的固定成本管理仍然是一個重點，我們正在積極跟踪從我們的 2020 年成本行動中永久減少 10 億美元的固定成本。

We expect our net below-the-line impact to be in the range of $40 million to $125 million, including capacity for $400 to $475 million of repositioning. Our full year effective tax rate will be approximately 22%, and weighted average share count will be approximately 701 million for the year, over-delivering on our minimum 1% reduction in shares. This will take adjusted earnings per share to a range of $8 to $8.10, up 13% to 14% year-over-year. This maintains the high end of our previous guidance and raised the low end by $0.05. Despite these challenges, we are maintaining the same cash flow outlook for the year in the range of $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion.

我們預計我們的淨線下影響將在 4000 萬至 1.25 億美元之間，包括 400 至 4.75 億美元的重新定位能力。我們的全年有效稅率約為 22%，全年加權平均股數約為 7.01 億股，超額交付了我們最低 1% 的股份減持。這將使調整後每股收益達到 8 美元至 8.10 美元，同比增長 13% 至 14%。這維持了我們之前指導的高端，並將低端提高了 0.05 美元。儘管存在這些挑戰，我們仍將今年的現金流量前景維持在 53 億美元至 56 億美元的範圍內。

Now let's turn to Page 7 and review our guidance progression throughout the year. Since we provided our initial 2021 guidance in January, we have navigated through several uncertainties, the ongoing global pandemic, supply chain challenges, unprecedented raw material inflation and labor market challenges. And in each turn, our rigorous operating principles have enabled us to continue to demonstrate our resiliency. And our latest update, we have adjusted our sales outlook purely due to the constraints we are battling in the supply chain, which dampened 3Q and our fourth quarter sales potential. We continue to have a robust backlog of demand. Despite these changes to top line expectations, we have not only maintained the high end of our segment margin and adjusted EPS guidance, but we have further increased the low end of both ranges and maintained our previous free cash flow guidance. These are excellent proof points of our ability to execute in all economic cycles. In total, I'm encouraged by the strength we are seeing in key areas of the portfolio as we head into '22, particularly driven by strong orders growth and backlog position as well as aggressive supply chain tactics that are mitigating risks, enabling us to deliver on our long-term commitments.

現在讓我們翻到第 7 頁，回顧一下我們全年的指導進展。自我們在 1 月份提供初步的 2021 年指引以來，我們已經度過了幾個不確定因素、持續的全球大流行病、供應鏈挑戰、前所未有的原材料通脹和勞動力市場挑戰。每一次，我們嚴格的經營原則都使我們能夠繼續展示我們的彈性。而我們的最新更新，我們調整了我們的銷售前景，純粹是由於我們在供應鏈中遇到的限制，這抑制了第三季度和第四季度的銷售潛力。我們繼續有強勁的需求積壓。儘管收入預期發生了這些變化，但我們不僅保持了分部利潤率的高端並調整了 EPS 指引，而且進一步提高了這兩個範圍的低端並維持了我們之前的自由現金流指引。這些都是我們在所有經濟周期中執行能力的極好證明。總的來說，當我們進入 22 世紀時，我們在投資組合的關鍵領域看到的實力令我感到鼓舞，特別是在強勁的訂單增長和積壓情況以及降低風險的積極供應鏈策略的推動下，使我們能夠兌現我們的長期承諾。

Now let's move to Slide 8, where we can talk about some of the preliminary thoughts we have on 2022. With the commercial aerospace recovery in view, upcoming capital reinvestment in the energy sector, nonresidential construction spending returning to 2019 levels and the exponential growth we continue to see in e-commerce, we have a strong setup for 2022. We expect organic growth in all 4 segments driven by strong portfolio-wide demand in backlog, underpinned by year-to-date orders growth of 17% in HBT, 14% in Aero, 10% in PMT and 6% in SPS or 8% in SPS,, if we exclude the COVID mask business. This, coupled with the strategies we have in place that are focused on driving uniquely innovative and differentiated technologies to address the world's increasing demand for digital transformation, process technology and sustainable solutions, gives me confidence in our future.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8，在這裡我們可以談談我們對 2022 年的一些初步想法。鑑於商業航空業的複蘇、能源領域即將進行的資本再投資、非住宅建築支出恢復到 2019 年的水平以及我們的指數增長繼續在電子商務中看到，我們為 2022 年做好了準備。我們預計所有 4 個細分市場的有機增長都將受到強勁的積壓投資組合需求的推動，這得益於 HBT 的年初至今訂單增長 17%，14如果我們排除 COVID 面罩業務，Aero 佔 %，PMT 佔 10%，SPS 佔 6%，SPS 佔 8%。這一點，再加上我們制定的戰略，重點是推動獨特的創新和差異化技術，以滿足世界對數字化轉型、工藝技術和可持續解決方案日益增長的需求，這讓我對我們的未來充滿信心。

However, we do expect growth in the first half of '22 to be constrained due to continued challenges from labor force uncertainty, supply availability and logistics challenges. Inflation will continue to be a factor under these circumstances though our pricing rigor as reflected in our margin rates will help us. We do expect changes to corporate tax legislation, though the exact impact of that is as of yet unknown. With these dynamics in mind, let's look at our key markets. In Aerospace, we expect strong growth in our commercial aerospace business. Ongoing improvement in global flight hours will drive growth in our commercial aerospace aftermarket. We also expect original equipment build rates, which have lagged the flight hour recovery, to ramp up in '22.

然而，我們確實預計 22 年上半年的增長將受到勞動力不確定性、供應可用性和物流挑戰的持續挑戰的限制。在這種情況下，通貨膨脹將繼續成為一個因素，儘管我們的保證金率所反映的定價嚴謹性將對我們有所幫助。我們確實預計公司稅立法會發生變化，儘管其確切影響尚不得而知。考慮到這些動態，讓我們看看我們的主要市場。在航空航天領域，我們預計我們的商業航空航天業務將實現強勁增長。全球飛行時間的持續改善將推動我們的商業航空航天售後市場的增長。我們還預計落後於飛行小時恢復的原始設備建造率將在 22 年上升。

In Defense & Space, we expect flat to low single-digit growth year-over-year as U.S. and international defense budget spending stabilizes and our supply challenges abate. In HBT, we expect nonresidential construction growth and an ongoing return to public spaces to drive demand for building products, services and projects. We also expect continued demand for our portfolio of healthy building solutions as well as tailwinds from U.S. infrastructure (inaudible). We expect a large backlog to draw from as well as we end with 2021. In PMT, we're assuming improved macroeconomic conditions and higher stable oil prices will improve growth in UOP and also help recover automation projects in HPS. We expect continued strength in Advanced Materials driven by demand in the auto, construction and health care sectors.

在國防與航天領域，隨著美國和國際國防預算支出趨於穩定以及我們的供應挑戰減輕，我們預計同比將持平至低個位數增長。在 HBT 方面，我們預計非住宅建築的增長和公共空間的持續回歸將推動對建築產品、服務和項目的需求。我們還預計對我們健康建築解決方案組合的持續需求以及來自美國基礎設施的順風（聽不清）。我們預計從 2021 年開始就會出現大量積壓。在 PMT 中，我們假設宏觀經濟狀況改善和油價穩定上漲將促進 UOP 的增長，並有助於恢復 HPS 的自動化項目。我們預計在汽車、建築和醫療保健行業的需求推動下，先進材料將繼續走強。

For Safety and Productivity Solutions, we expect strong demand in our Productivity Solutions and Services, gas analysis and advanced sensor businesses. We also execute on our robust backlog of major projects in our Warehouse and Workflow Solutions businesses. However, we will face constraints to growth as supply chain challenges continue in the first half of '22. Mask demand will remain at our lower second half exit rates as the world recovers from the pandemic. For overall Honeywell, we expect margin expansion to be driven by aftermarket recovery in Aerospace, accelerating catalyst shipments in UOP and improving mix in SPS. Our strong productivity and pricing actions, which should carry through to next year and provide potential upside, will enable key investments to support medium-term top line growth, including a step-up in R&D and our digital initiatives.

對於安全和生產力解決方案，我們預計我們的生產力解決方案和服務、氣體分析和高級傳感器業務會有強勁需求。我們還在我們的倉庫和工作流解決方案業務中執行大量積壓的重大項目。然而，隨著供應鏈挑戰在 22 世紀上半年繼續存在，我們將面臨增長限制。隨著世界從大流行中復蘇，口罩需求將保持在我們較低的下半年退出率。對於整個霍尼韋爾，我們預計利潤率的增長將受到航空航天售後市場復甦、加速 UOP 催化劑出貨量和改善 SPS 組合的推動。我們強有力的生產力和定價行動將持續到明年並提供潛在的上行空間，這將使關鍵投資能夠支持中期收入增長，包括加強研發和我們的數字計劃。

We look forward to completing the combination of Honeywell Quantum Solutions with Cambridge Quantum Computing, which is a very big strategic step forward for us, but will be a minor drag on our margin. We have significant balance sheet capacity for M&A and share repurchases, and we expect to reduce our share count by a minimum of 1% again in 2022. So overall, we have some insight into our end markets and a lot of confidence in our continued operational execution, which will give us the ability to deliver another strong financial performance and continue to execute our strategy to be the premier software (inaudible). We'll provide more specific inputs once we close out the year.

我們期待完成 Honeywell Quantum Solutions 與 Cambridge Quantum Computing 的合併，這對我們來說是向前邁出的非常大的戰略一步，但對我們的利潤率會造成輕微拖累。我們在併購和股票回購方面擁有強大的資產負債表能力，我們預計到 2022 年我們的股票數量將再次減少至少 1%。因此，總的來說，我們對我們的終端市場有一些了解，並對我們的持續運營充滿信心執行，這將使我們有能力提供另一個強勁的財務業績，並繼續執行我們的戰略，成為一流的軟件（聽不清）。一旦我們結束這一年，我們將提供更具體的投入。

So with that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Darius.

因此，我想將電話轉回給 Darius。

Thank you, Greg. Before we wrap up, I'd like to take a minute on Slide 9 to discuss an important topic: Honeywell's culture of inclusion and diversity. Our commitment to inclusion and diversity enables better decision-making, helps build competitive advantages and further long-term success. Inclusion and diversity is one of our foundational principles, and Honeywell expects all employees to exemplify these principles. We continue to build out our initiatives to promote racial equality and inclusion and diversity, including employing mandatory unconscious bias training to our global workforce; establishing a global I&D student committee, co-sponsored by me; and fortifying Honeywell's I&D governance structure by embedding I&D councils into each business group. We also established 2021 goals for each of my direct reports that include an annual objective of driving diversity in his or her organization.

謝謝你，格雷格。在我們結束之前，我想在幻燈片 9 上花點時間討論一個重要話題：霍尼韋爾的包容和多元化文化。我們對包容性和多樣性的承諾有助於做出更好的決策，有助於建立競爭優勢並進一步取得長期成功。包容和多元化是我們的基本原則之一，霍尼韋爾希望所有員工都能踐行這些原則。我們繼續制定促進種族平等、包容和多樣性的舉措，包括對我們的全球員工進行強制性無意識偏見培訓；建立一個全球 I&D 學生委員會，由我共同發起；通過將 I&D 委員會嵌入每個業務集團，強化霍尼韋爾的 I&D 治理結構。我們還為我的每位直接下屬制定了 2021 年目標，其中包括在他或她的組織中推動多元化的年度目標。

These initiatives have yielded results. Women and people of color represent a higher percentage of the workforce at Honeywell compared to our peers. In addition, representation of women and people of color in Honeywell has increased each year since 2018, which is a testament to our ongoing commitment to hiring, developing and retaining diverse talent. Now let's wrap up on Slide 10. We delivered on our third quarter commitments despite a challenging backdrop. As always, we remain laser-focused on executing our strategic objectives and investing in growth opportunities that position our business well for the next phase of recovery. We're executing on our proven value creation framework with the rigor you can expect from Honeywell, which will continue to consistently drive shareholder value.

這些舉措已取得成效。與我們的同行相比，女性和有色人種在霍尼韋爾的員工隊伍中所佔比例更高。此外，自 2018 年以來，霍尼韋爾的女性和有色人種人數每年都在增加，這證明了我們對僱用、培養和留住多元化人才的持續承諾。現在讓我們結束幻燈片 10。儘管背景充滿挑戰，我們還是兌現了第三季度的承諾。一如既往，我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略目標，並投資於增長機會，使我們的業務在下一階段的複蘇中處於有利地位。我們正在執行我們經過驗證的價值創造框架，您可以期待霍尼韋爾的嚴謹性，這將繼續持續推動股東價值。

With that, Reena, let's move to Q&A.

有了這個，Reena，讓我們進入問答環節。

Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg, Anne and Torsten are now available to answer your questions. (Operator Instructions) Ari, please open the line for Q&A.

謝謝你，大流士。 Darius、Greg、Anne 和 Torsten 現在可以回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）Ari，請打開問答熱線。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們現在將接受來自摩根大通的史蒂夫圖薩的第一個問題。

Can you hear me okay?

你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great. Just on the organic growth guidance for next year, would you expect first half to be -- to actually grow? Or are you looking at it being kind of more like the fourth quarter? And then, I mean, you talked about all 4 segments growing, I guess. Does that mean like will you decelerate from this year because of the first half? Like maybe just give us some -- a bit of guidepost on kind of what the messaging is on first half versus all of next year on this front?

偉大的。就明年的有機增長指導而言，您是否預計上半年會真正增長？還是您認為它更像是第四季度？然後，我的意思是，我猜你談到了所有 4 個細分市場的增長。這是否意味著你會因為上半年而從今年開始減速？就像也許只是給我們一些 - 一些關於上半年與明年全年在這方面的消息傳遞的指南？

Yes. So the short answer to your question, Steve, is that, yes, we do expect the first half to grow. I think how much is going to be a little bit dependent upon some of the supply chain challenges that we pointed out that we're seeing in Q4. Frankly, we see it this way, which is on semiconductors, we actually see some positive tailwinds as we head into the first half next year. So that's good. I don't think that it's going to be completely alleviated, but it's going to get better. When it comes to some of the other components, particularly for Aerospace and some of the Tier 2, Tier 3 suppliers, particularly castings, forgings, things of that nature, we're not sure where we are in that improvement cycle because it really just kind of popped up in Q3 in a more acute phase. So we're a little more cautious there. But the short answer is we do expect growth in the first half of 2022.

是的。因此，史蒂夫，對你的問題的簡短回答是，是的，我們確實預計上半年會增長。我認為多少會有點取決於我們指出的我們在第四季度看到的一些供應鏈挑戰。坦率地說，我們是這樣看的，在半導體方面，我們實際上看到了一些積極的順風，因為我們進入明年上半年。所以這很好。我不認為它會完全緩解，但它會變得更好。當涉及到其他一些部件時，特別是航空航天和一些 2 級、3 級供應商，特別是鑄件、鍛件等類似性質的部件，我們不確定我們在改進週期中處於什麼位置，因為它真的只是在第三季度出現了一個更嚴重的階段。所以我們在那裡更加謹慎。但簡短的回答是，我們確實預計 2022 年上半年會出現增長。

What I will say is that we have -- we'll have some headwinds in SPS due to sort of what I call COVID-related masks. But I think those are going to be particularly acute in Q1 of next year. They're evident here in Q4 of '21 and to a lesser extent, Q2 of 2022. And then it's kind of going to -- we're going to get back to that normal run rate.

我要說的是，由於我稱之為與 COVID 相關的口罩，我們將在 SPS 中遇到一些不利因素。但我認為明年第一季度這些問題將特別嚴重。它們在 21 年第四季度和 2022 年第二季度的較小程度上很明顯。然後它有點——我們將回到正常的運行率。

So we -- as you can see, I mean, it's -- the year '22 is setting up terrific. I mean, we're up double-digit orders growth in each of our SPGs. One exception, SPS is sort of, call it, mid-single digit. But if you exclude the impact of the COVID masks, we would be up double digit as well. So the only constraint that we see is, to some extent, the supply chain. And at least in semiconductors, we think that Q4 is the peak of those challenges. That's the way we see it today. Now I will say this lastly, which is it's a dynamic environment. There were some puts and takes here in Q3 that were probably more takes than positive. So we're going to monitor it as closely as Q4.

所以我們——正如你所看到的，我的意思是——22 年的情況非常好。我的意思是，我們每個 SPG 的訂單都實現了兩位數的增長。一個例外，SPS 有點，稱之為中個位數。但如果你排除 COVID 面具的影響，我們也會增長兩位數。因此，我們看到的唯一限制在某種程度上是供應鏈。至少在半導體領域，我們認為第四季度是這些挑戰的高峰期。這就是我們今天看到的方式。現在我最後要說的是，這是一個動態的環境。在第三季度這裡有一些看跌期權可能比積極的要多。所以我們將像第四季度一樣密切關注它。

And that's why we have such a wide guidance range for the fourth quarter. $400 million of revenue range is wider than we're typically doing, and it's exactly for those reasons.

這就是為什麼我們對第四季度有如此廣泛的指導範圍。 4 億美元的收入範圍比我們通常做的要寬，這正是出於這些原因。

So does terrific mean re -- acceleration from '21? That's just my follow-up.

那麼 terrific 是否意味著從 21 世紀開始重新加速？那隻是我的後續行動。

Well, I think it's -- all I can say is we expect growth in the first half. And when we get together with you in January or February to give you our outlook, we'll have a better view. But we certainly expect growth, the backlog supports that. And our story hasn't changed from really the end of Q2 earnings report. I think the setup for Honeywell for '22, '23 is terrific. There's nothing here that makes me want to change my mind. Yes, we're going to have to deal with some of the supply chain challenges. They're here. They're real. They're probably understated in the market. I think that, frankly, it's only recently that it's been realized how severe they are. But we've incorporated that in our guide for Q4. And I think we're working diligently to try to resolve them. I mean, we've been at this for 12 weeks now. And it's not just one way. It's not just pushing suppliers harder. It's also doing redesign, alternative products, finding different ways to generate revenue. So I think we've got a pretty good playbook. But I won't understate this. The challenges are real and very substantial.

好吧，我認為這是 - 我只能說我們預計上半年會增長。當我們在 1 月或 2 月與您聚在一起向您展示我們的展望時，我們會有更好的看法。但我們當然期待增長，積壓支持這一點。我們的故事從真正的第二季度收益報告結束時並沒有改變。我認為 Honeywell 在 22 年和 23 年的設置非常棒。這裡沒有任何東西讓我想改變主意。是的，我們將不得不應對一些供應鏈挑戰。他們在這兒。他們是真實的。他們可能在市場上被低估了。我認為，坦率地說，直到最近人們才意識到它們有多嚴重。但我們已將其納入我們的第四季度指南。我認為我們正在努力解決這些問題。我的意思是，我們已經這樣做了 12 週了。這不僅僅是一種方式。這不僅僅是在更努力地推動供應商。它還在重新設計、替代產品，尋找不同的創收方式。所以我認為我們有一本非常好的劇本。但我不會低估這一點。挑戰是真實的，而且非常重大。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

So maybe my question would focus on the revenue outlook in Aerospace because I think the guidance for this year has come down 3 quarters in a row now in that division. So I just wanted to try and understand your level of confidence in when the Defense & Space piece will return to growth again? Is it sort of early next year or towards the end of the year? And also any updated thoughts on commercial aero aftermarket and how you think your own revenues will lag or move in line with the recovery in traffic because of spare parts and so forth.

所以也許我的問題會集中在航空航天的收入前景上，因為我認為該部門今年的指導已經連續三個季度下降。所以我只是想嘗試了解您對國防與航天領域何時會再次恢復增長的信心程度？是明年初還是年底？還有關於商業航空售後市場的任何最新想法，以及您認為自己的收入將如何滯後或隨著備件等交通量的恢復而變化。

Yes. Okay. Yes. So Julian, a couple of points. On Defense & Space, as you saw, we kind of had a -- frankly, a bit of a disappointing double-digit negative for Q3. But remember that had we not sort of had some of these supply chain challenge, which really became very evident in Q3 because think about these as Q3, Q4 suppliers which are smaller, which reduced capacity during the pandemic. And now we're getting a lot of demand, not just from us but probably some of the other aerospace players. It's going to take some time to work through that, but we would have been down mid-single digits in Q3 had that not happened. We have, unfortunately, more past due than we want Defense & Space. That's went up substantially in Q3, and we've got to work our way through that. What I will tell you about Defense & Space is if you look at our bookings or where we are at this cycle, early Q4 versus where we were at the same period of last year, that gives us some -- well, quite a bit of confidence that we're looking at flat to low single digits. Now that could get even better. I don't know that it's going to get a lot worse.

是的。好的。是的。朱利安，有幾點。在國防與航天方面，正如您所見，我們有點 - 坦率地說，第三季度的兩位數負數有點令人失望。但請記住，如果我們沒有遇到這些供應鏈挑戰，這在第三季度變得非常明顯，因為將這些視為第三季度、第四季度的供應商，它們規模較小，在大流行期間減少了產能。現在我們收到了很多需求，不僅來自我們，還可能來自其他一些航空航天公司。解決這個問題需要一些時間，但如果沒有發生，我們在第三季度的業績可能會下降到中個位數。不幸的是，我們的 Defense & Space 逾期未付。這在第三季度大幅上升，我們必須努力解決這個問題。關於國防與航天，我要告訴你的是，如果你看看我們的預訂或我們在這個週期的位置，第四季度初與我們去年同期的位置，這給了我們一些 - 嗯，相當多相信我們正在尋找持平到低的個位數。現在情況可能會變得更好。我不知道情況會變得更糟。

What we're seeing here is, if you recall, if you go back to 2020, we had very strong orders and revenue in 2020 in Defense & Space. And you see the effect of some level of usage and destocking by some of those Defense & Space customers and distributors. So we're optimistic about normalization of that in '22. And based on what we see today, and this is important to say today and this could change, we see flattish to low single-digit growth. And let's now switch gears and talk about commercial aftermarket. We see that continue to improve it. You saw that strong growth in Q3. We think it's going to continue to get better. We're still nowhere near the 2019 levels, but it continues to get better. As you know, November 8, we're going to open up the borders, and more international traffic is going to step up. So as more international comes back as COVID abates, which we think were going to happen here in Q4 and Q1 next year, we see continued growth in our aftermarket, coupled with stronger growth in OE, both in air transport as well as PGA. So the setup for Aerospace, I think, for '22 is quite good. Greg, I don't know if you...

我們在這裡看到的是，如果你還記得的話，如果你回到 2020 年，我們在 2020 年的國防與航天領域的訂單和收入非常強勁。您會看到一些 Defense & Space 客戶和分銷商在一定程度上使用和減少庫存的影響。因此，我們對 22 年的正常化持樂觀態度。根據我們今天所看到的，今天要說的很重要，而且這可能會改變，我們看到持平到低的個位數增長。現在讓我們換個話題，談談商業售後市場。我們看到，繼續改進它。你在第三季度看到了強勁的增長。我們認為它會繼續變得更好。我們仍遠未達到 2019 年的水平，但它會繼續好轉。如您所知，11 月 8 日，我們將開放邊境，更多的國際交通將增加。因此，隨著 COVID 減弱，更多的國際企業回歸，我們認為這將在明年第四季度和第一季度在這裡發生，我們看到我們的售後市場持續增長，加上航空運輸和 PGA 的 OE 增長更強勁。因此，我認為 22 年的航空航天設置非常好。格雷格，我不知道你是否...

No, I think you got it.

不，我想你明白了。

Our next question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Hopefully, you can hear me okay. But Darius, can you quantify what you think supply chain cost you in revenues in the quarter? Do you have a sense of that? And if you have a sense of that, Darius, do you have a sense of -- can you delineate between like a lost sale and a delayed sale? How much of that has kind of gone forever versus just pushed into next quarter or whatever?

希望你能聽到我的聲音。但是 Darius，你能量化你認為供應鏈在本季度的收入中花費了什麼嗎？你有這種感覺嗎？如果你有這種感覺，大流士，你有沒有一種感覺——你能區分銷售失敗和延遲銷售嗎？其中有多少已經永遠消失了，而不是只是推到下一個季度或其他什麼？

Yes. No, I can. So think about the impact in Q3 about $300 million plus or minus, and think about what's embedded in our Q4 outlook of an impact of $300 million to $500 million. Now in terms of lost forever versus push, it's not lost forever. I mean, as I talked about some of -- unfortunately, some of our past dues going up, and that went up $200 million to $300 million just in Q3. So it's not lost.

是的。不，我可以。因此，考慮一下第三季度的影響大約 3 億美元上下，並考慮一下我們第四季度 3 億至 5 億美元影響的展望中包含的內容。現在，就永遠失去與推動而言，它並沒有永遠失去。我的意思是，當我談到一些——不幸的是，我們過去的一些會費增加了，僅在第三季度就增加了 2 億至 3 億美元。所以它沒有丟失。

We've got to be able to get our supply chain to function more to more effectively and efficiently. And that's exactly what Torsten and his team are working on and -- but it's -- we don't envision that as lost. Customers still need those products. And frankly, I think when this earnings cycle ends, I don't think we're going to be that unique in terms of some of the bottlenecks that we're seeing.

我們必須能夠讓我們的供應鏈更有效地運作。而這正是 Torsten 和他的團隊正在努力的——但它是——我們並不認為這是迷路的。客戶仍然需要那些產品。坦率地說，我認為當這個盈利週期結束時，我認為就我們所看到的一些瓶頸而言，我們不會那麼獨特。

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Maybe you could talk a little bit about how you're thinking about driving 4Q margin expansion despite at the midpoint of revenue decline? And the reason I ask is just how are you driving cost cutting in an environment where I know things are tough, but you're also up against a very strong backlog with the potential for growth to really bounce back in 2022? So kind of how do you balance that against cutting costs for the short-term issues that you're facing?

也許你可以談談你是如何考慮在收入下降的中點推動第四季度利潤率增長的？我問的原因是你如何在我知道事情很艱難的環境中推動成本削減，但你也面臨著非常強大的積壓，增長潛力在 2022 年真正反彈？那麼，您如何平衡它與削減您面臨的短期問題的成本呢？

Yes. Well, yes, first of all, Nicole, I don't -- cost cutting is not what we're doing. We're actually investing this year, particularly in businesses like Intelligrated, which are growing at clips that probably no other business has seen before. But the biggest lever here, and I think one of the best operational stories for Honeywell that you see here in Q3 is our pricing discipline. I mean, we think we gain in terms of price/cost 40 to 50 basis points of margin expansion, and that's what you're seeing come through in our margins. I mean, I think that was a terrific commercial execution by the team, and they did a great job. So this is not so much a function of sort of cost cutting. This is more of a function of commercial execution. Greg?

是的。嗯，是的，首先，妮可，我沒有——削減成本不是我們正在做的。事實上，我們今年正在投資，尤其是像 Intelligrated 這樣的企業，它們的增長速度可能是其他企業從未見過的。但這裡最大的槓桿，我認為你在第三季度看到的霍尼韋爾最好的運營故事之一是我們的定價紀律。我的意思是，我們認為我們在價格/成本方面獲得了 40 到 50 個基點的利潤率擴張，這就是您在我們的利潤率中看到的。我的意思是，我認為這是團隊出色的商業執行力，他們做得很好。所以這與其說是一種削減成本的功能。這更多是商業執行的功能。格雷格？

Yes, I would agree. I mean, if you think about it, Nicole, last year, obviously, we were in a substantial cost-cutting mode and are repositioning pipeline. And the projects around that reflected it. This year, we always say that we continue the productivity playbook, fixed cost power one, create operating leverage by growing sales and holding fixed costs flat as just the mantra of the way we work. And so to Darius' point, we're not doing massive cost cutting. We are being smart about where we're putting it back, though, and we are using the things that we spoke about last year in terms of automation and our digital capabilities to help us deliver.

是的，我同意。我的意思是，如果你考慮一下，妮可，去年，很明顯，我們處於大幅削減成本的模式，並且正在重新定位管道。圍繞它的項目反映了這一點。今年，我們總是說我們將繼續提高生產力，即固定成本驅動力，通過增加銷售額和保持固定成本持平來創造經營槓桿，這正是我們工作方式的口頭禪。因此，就 Darius 的觀點而言，我們並沒有進行大規模的成本削減。不過，我們對將其放回何處很聰明，並且我們正在使用去年在自動化和我們的數字能力方面談到的事情來幫助我們交付。

I mean, I'll be honest. The supply chain work that we're doing, that Torsten and the team are doing are very much enabled by our Honeywell digital tools and capabilities and some of the visibility that he's put into his own capabilities in the supply chain to manage. So this isn't about cutting costs. It's about managing them properly, and we are investing back in the business, as Darius mentioned. But we're going to be doing it diligently. So I feel pretty good about the margin rate expansion. You would see the implied margin rate expansion is a little bit lower than what our guide was previously simply because the sales numbers are down. So we'll have a little bit less operating leverage from an opportunity standpoint, but still very healthy margin expansion in Q4.

我的意思是，我會說實話。我們正在做的供應鏈工作，Torsten 和團隊正在做的工作很大程度上得益於我們的霍尼韋爾數字工具和功能，以及他在供應鏈管理中投入到自己能力中的一些可見性。所以這與削減成本無關。正如 Darius 提到的，這是關於妥善管理它們，我們正在對業務進行投資。但我們會認真去做。所以我對保證金率的擴張感覺很好。您會看到隱含的保證金率擴張略低於我們之前的指南，因為銷售數字下降了。因此，從機會的角度來看，我們的運營槓桿會有所降低，但第四季度的利潤率增長仍然非常健康。

Yes. And just to add to that, this is an important point. Honeywell digital kind of has 2 elements. Number one is it helps us to operate the business better, and Torsten had his team have done a great job instrumenting exactly how do we uncork some of these bottlenecks that we're seeing. I mean, it's not perfection. It's not that we're going to completely avoid them, but I think we're doing a nice job. And second of all, which is continue to drive productivity, as Greg pointed out, through automation. Automation is a big lever for us and one that, frankly, we're using aggressively, both in sort of our manufacturing facilities, but also in the office environment. And it's been enabling us to drive productivity.

是的。除此之外，這是重要的一點。霍尼韋爾數字產品有兩個元素。第一是它幫助我們更好地運營業務，Torsten 讓他的團隊做得很好，準確地分析了我們如何解決我們所看到的這些瓶頸。我的意思是，這不是完美的。這並不是說我們要完全避免它們，但我認為我們做得很好。其次，正如格雷格指出的那樣，通過自動化繼續提高生產力。自動化對我們來說是一個重要的槓桿，坦率地說，我們正在積極使用它，無論是在我們的製造設施中，還是在辦公環境中。它使我們能夠提高生產力。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

Sort of a related question, Darius and Greg. One of the other themes out of earnings season so far is kind of the double-edged sword element of backlog. In other words, things not priced in the backlog for the current inflationary market. Given that you run with relatively large backlogs, I just wonder if you could address the profitability in your backlog? Do you have inflation protection? And any particular headwinds we should think about as that backlog converts?

有點相關的問題，Darius 和 Greg。到目前為止，收益季節之外的其他主題之一是積壓的雙刃劍元素。換句話說，對於當前的通脹市場，未在積壓訂單中定價的東西。鑑於您的積壓量相對較大，我只是想知道您是否可以解決積壓量的盈利問題？你有通貨膨脹保護嗎？在積壓工作轉換時，我們應該考慮任何特定的不利因素嗎？

That's a very good question, Jeff, and we've thought about that one. And you're right. With aged backlog, you got to be very, very careful because if you don't go back and revisit your backlog and reprice it, then you're going to have a problem. And I can tell you that's a very active exercise we're doing because as you can imagine, I mean, we -- just to quote some figures. I mean, steel is up 198% year-over-year; nickel, 25%; copper, 46%; aluminum, 66%. I mean, these are fairly substantial increases. So what we've been doing in more or less all of our businesses and particularly long cycle ones is trying to go back and reprice some of our backlog. You kind of almost have to do that because -- and not to even mention labor inflation, which we're also seeing. So it's part of our playbook, part of our exercise and exactly what we've been trying to do.

這是一個很好的問題，傑夫，我們已經考慮過這個問題。你是對的。對於陳舊的積壓，你必須非常非常小心，因為如果你不回頭重新審視你的積壓並重新定價，那麼你就會遇到問題。我可以告訴你，這是我們正在做的一項非常積極的工作，因為你可以想像，我的意思是，我們 - 只是引用一些數字。我的意思是，鋼鐵同比上漲 198%；鎳，25%；銅，46%；鋁，66%。我的意思是，這些增長相當可觀。因此，我們在或多或少的所有業務中一直在做的事情，尤其是長周期業務，是試圖回過頭來對我們的一些積壓訂單重新定價。你幾乎必須這樣做，因為 - 更不用說我們也看到的勞動力通脹。所以這是我們劇本的一部分，我們練習的一部分，也是我們一直在努力做的事情。

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

So I guess one question for Darius and Torsten since he's on the line as well. How's that $500 million of supply chain that you guys talked about at the 2019 Analyst Day looking? I mean, you're probably looking at the composition of that a little differently today just given how much has changed. And then just a smaller follow-up. How do we think about the cadence of UOP catalyst shipments from here? Those look pretty solid in the quarter.

所以我想有一個問題要問 Darius 和 Torsten，因為他也在線。你們在 2019 年分析師日談到的 5 億美元的供應鏈看起來怎麼樣？我的意思是，鑑於發生了多少變化，您今天對它的構成的看法可能會有所不同。然後只是一個較小的後續行動。我們如何看待 UOP 催化劑從這裡發貨的節奏？這些在本季度看起來相當穩固。

Yes. Let me start with the UOP question. I'll turn it over to Torsten the other. I mean, UOP's bookings remain very, very strong. You saw that both in revenue and booking rates here in Q3. So we're optimistic. And keep in mind, which really gets us excited also, and I've talked about this before. HTS follows UOP by a 12- to 18-month cycle. So it -- UOP leads, HPS follows. And so that sort of gives you another good indicator that we should see a nice impact on -- in HPS 12 to 18 months from now. We've done this analysis before, and that's the typical lead lag cycle. So not only it's just good news, and let's face it. I mean, we all read the same articles. The world needs more energy. Some of it is going to come from renewables, but frankly, some of it's going to have to come from hydrocarbons as well. So we think that, that's overall, the world right now is energy short. And there's going to be a reinvestment cycle, both in renewables to some extent, hydrocarbons. I'll turn it over to Torsten.

是的。讓我從 UOP 問題開始。我會把它交給另一個 Torsten。我的意思是，UOP 的預訂量仍然非常非常強勁。你在第三季度的收入和預訂率上都看到了這一點。所以我們很樂觀。請記住，這也確實讓我們感到興奮，我之前已經談過這個。 HTS 遵循 UOP 12 到 18 個月的周期。因此，UOP 領先，HPS 緊隨其後。因此，這為您提供了另一個很好的指標，我們應該在 12 到 18 個月後的 HPS 中看到很好的影響。我們之前做過這個分析，那是典型的超前滯後周期。所以這不僅是個好消息，讓我們面對現實吧。我的意思是，我們都閱讀相同的文章。世界需要更多的能源。其中一些將來自可再生能源，但坦率地說，其中一些也必須來自碳氫化合物。所以我們認為，總的來說，現在的世界是能源短缺的。並且在某種程度上，在可再生能源和碳氫化合物方面都會有一個再投資週期。我會把它交給 Torsten。

Yes. I mean, the $500 million, they are split primarily between our short-cycle business, especially in SPS and HPT, and the long-cycle business in Aerospace. So that's what we are seeing. First, a dramatic impact on the short-cycle business. But now in Q3, we saw that supply shortage to start kicking in, also in the long cycle in the Aerospace business. But the majority sits primarily in the semiconductor-related short-cycle business.

是的。我的意思是，這 5 億美元主要分配給我們的短週期業務，尤其是 SPS 和 HPT，以及航空航天領域的長周期業務。這就是我們所看到的。一是對短週期業務衝擊巨大。但現在在第三季度，我們看到供應短缺開始出現，在航空航天業務的長周期中也是如此。但大多數人主要從事與半導體相關的短週期業務。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. We'll come back to Deane. Our next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America. Andrew?

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。我們會回到迪恩身邊。我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。安德魯？

Yes. Can you hear me?

是的。你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Just a question, follow-up question. A, on China, when are you guys see China be accelerating? And another question is, if I look at HPS and UOP, China has been a huge market, a huge source of growth. And what we've been reading is because of these energy constraints in China, China is reassessing some sort of more commoditized energy-intensive industries like textiles, but more importantly, chemicals. We've read about some large chemical projects being canceled. What does it mean for sort of HPS and UOP in China going forward?

只是一個問題，後續問題。 A，關於中國，你們什麼時候看到中國在加速發展？另一個問題是，如果我看一下 HPS 和 UOP，中國一直是一個巨大的市場，一個巨大的增長源。我們一直在讀到的是，由於中國的這些能源限制，中國正在重新評估某種更加商品化的能源密集型行業，例如紡織業，但更重要的是，化工行業。我們已經了解到一些大型化工項目被取消的消息。這對中國未來的 HPS 和 UOP 意味著什麼？

Yes. Well, first of all, we actually -- just to give you a data point from Q3, our growth in China continues to be robust. We were up high single digits in Q3, and we actually don't see that abating. So our position in China continues to be very good. Our orders rate continuing to be -- there's -- as you know, there's probably a focus in China right now to actually generate more energy, particularly to support the industry right now that's happening in Q4. So we actually think that's going to create a very favorable investment environment and business opportunity for us.

是的。嗯，首先，我們實際上 - 只是給你第三季度的數據點，我們在中國的增長繼續強勁。我們在第三季度取得了很高的個位數增長，而且我們實際上並沒有看到這種情況有所減弱。所以我們在中國的地位仍然非常好。我們的訂單率繼續保持 - 如您所知，中國目前可能關注實際產生更多能源，特別是支持第四季度正在發生的行業。所以我們實際上認為這將為我們創造一個非常有利的投資環境和商業機會。

And the other business opportunity for us, which we're very excited about, is a focus in China on sustainability. And when we think about some of the UOP, HPS solutions and our Sustainability Technology Solutions business, that's going to create a giant opportunity for us in China and frankly, one we're very excited about. So we think that there's going to be kind of a twofold opportunity here. I think there's going to be a reinvestment cycle in what I call a little bit more of the traditional energy, but really an accelerated and more pronounced investment cycle in renewables. And as you know, we have a very strong position in China, and we think we could be a major player in that sustainability plan.

我們感到非常興奮的另一個商機是在中國關注可持續發展。當我們考慮一些 UOP、HPS 解決方案和我們的可持續發展技術解決方案業務時，這將為我們在中國創造一個巨大的機會，坦率地說，我們對此感到非常興奮。所以我們認為這裡會有雙重機會。我認為我所謂的傳統能源會出現再投資週期，但實際上是可再生能源的加速和更明顯的投資週期。如您所知，我們在中國擁有非常強大的地位，我們認為我們可以成為該可持續發展計劃的主要參與者。

Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andy Kaplowitz。

Darius, many of the multi-industry peers you have been relatively acquisitive over the last 6 months. We know Honeywell has been active also, but the level of activity has been maybe a little lower given the size of your company. So is this just a function still of valuation being very high? And I know, Darius, you spoke about this before. You've spoken last quarter, I think, just about being more aggressive with the balance sheet. So what does that mean? Do you see a step-up for Honeywell and M&A-related activity over the next year?

Darius，在過去的 6 個月中，您的許多跨行業同行都在積極進取。我們知道霍尼韋爾也很活躍，但考慮到貴公司的規模，活動水平可能會低一些。那麼這是否只是估值非常高的一個函數？我知道，大流士，你之前談到過這個。我認為你上個季度說過，只是關於在資產負債表上更加積極。那是什麼意思呢？您認為明年霍尼韋爾和併購相關活動會有所增加嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think M&A is sort of still the desired way to deploy capital. I mean, we just -- we have done Sparta this year. Although it didn't require cash, we think the CQC Honeywell Quantum Solutions is a very important and meaningful transaction. Yes, it's a merger, not a deployment of capital, whichever was, it is a transaction that's critical for us. We just did Performix. It's smaller acquisition, but it's a critically important one. And you see a little bit of a pattern, right? Sparta life sciences, Performix life sciences, we like that segment, and we're going to continue to look.

是的。我的意思是，我認為併購仍然是配置資本的理想方式。我的意思是，我們只是 - 我們今年完成了 Sparta。雖然不需要現金，但我們認為 CQC Honeywell Quantum Solutions 是一項非常重要且有意義的交易。是的，這是一次合併，而不是資本部署，無論哪種，它都是一項對我們至關重要的交易。我們剛剛做了 Performix。這是一項規模較小的收購，但卻是一項至關重要的收購。你看到了一點模式，對吧？ Sparta life sciences，Performix life sciences，我們喜歡這個部分，我們將繼續尋找。

Yes, with this kind of interest rate environment that we have today, the M&A market is overheated. It is what it is. But I've said we're not going to stay on the sidelines forever. I mean, yes, versus any historical metric, the multiples are high. But -- and I don't love it, but the market is what the market is. It doesn't mean we're going to stay on the sidelines forever and wait for it to turn. I mean, it's been this way. I -- if interest rates go up, I do think it will probably cool off a little bit, so which may allow us to keep it more active. But we are active. We're looking at numerous deals. And nothing is 100% in the world of M&As, but we're hopeful we're going to be able to get something done. And certainly want to deploy our capital in that way, but it has to be the right business. It has to fit our technology orientation, has to get the right value for us, although nothing is cheap these days. And we're thrilled with what we're doing with Sparta. I think that's been -- looking back at this, it's been about 6 months plus since we've acquired that company. It's going to be a winner. I'm very confident with that.

是的，在我們今天的這種利率環境下，併購市場過熱。就是這樣。但我說過我們不會永遠袖手旁觀。我的意思是，是的，與任何歷史指標相比，倍數都很高。但是——我不喜歡它，但市場就是市場。這並不意味著我們要永遠袖手旁觀，等待它轉向。我的意思是，一直是這樣。我 - 如果利率上升，我確實認為它可能會降溫一點，所以這可能會讓我們保持更活躍。但是我們很活躍。我們正在尋找大量交易。在併購的世界裡，沒有什麼是 100% 的，但我們希望我們能夠完成一些事情。並且當然希望以這種方式部署我們的資本，但它必須是正確的業務。它必須符合我們的技術導向，必須為我們獲得正確的價值，儘管如今沒有什麼東西便宜。我們對與 Sparta 合作的成果感到非常興奮。我認為那是 - 回顧這一點，自從我們收購那家公司以來已經過去了大約 6 個月。這將是一個贏家。我對此非常有信心。

Our next question comes from Peter Arment from Baird. Peter?

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Peter Arment。彼得？

Yes. Can you hear me?

是的。你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Darius, maybe you could just talk a little bit about how you're viewing SPS kind of margins, the outlook going there. You talked a little bit about kind of improved mix and execution. But obviously, you're up against some headwinds there in that business. You talked a little bit about supply chain and also just the PP&E business declining. How should we think about just kind of the outlook improving margins in SPS?

Darius，也許你可以談談你如何看待 SPS 的利潤率，以及那裡的前景。你談到了一些關於改進組合和執行的問題。但很明顯，您在該業務中遇到了一些不利因素。您談到了供應鏈以及 PP&E 業務的下滑。我們應該如何看待提高 SPS 利潤率的前景？

Yes. Yes. Well, as you know, the fastest-growing business in SPS is Intelligrated. It is margin-dilutive. We've been talking about that. And look, that business grew 60% this quarter. Any business growing at that kind of pace is going to have some challenges. But you coupled that kind of level of growth, which pulls on things like electronics, steel, metal, with the supply chain challenges we have. It's going to have some efficiency challenges, particularly since it's -- there's a strong correlation between third-party buy, our own manufacturing and installation. And when those things don't work together well, there are some challenges. I can tell you we're investing heavily in that business to really prepare it to be a $4 billion, $5 billion, $6 billion business, which is the path that it's on. So there's an investment play. There's an efficiency play and so on. Having said that, a lot of our other businesses, such as AST, such as PSS had an absolutely terrific quarter. PSS has been a great success story for us. It's winning in the marketplace. So we think that this sort of margin challenge is going to abate over time, particularly as we made some of the process improvements and investments in Intelligrated.

是的。是的。嗯，如您所知，SPS 中增長最快的業務是 Intelligrated。它會稀釋利潤。我們一直在談論那個。看，該業務本季度增長了 60%。任何以這種速度發展的企業都會遇到一些挑戰。但是你將這種增長水平與我們所面臨的供應鏈挑戰結合起來，這種增長水平推動了電子、鋼鐵、金屬等行業的發展。這將面臨一些效率挑戰，特別是因為它 - 第三方購買、我們自己的製造和安裝之間存在很強的相關性。當這些事情不能很好地協同工作時，就會出現一些挑戰。我可以告訴你，我們正在對該業務進行大量投資，真正讓它成為一個價值 40 億美元、50 億美元、60 億美元的企業，這就是它正在走的道路。所以有一個投資遊戲。有一個效率遊戲等等。話雖如此，我們的許多其他業務，例如 AST，例如 PSS，都有一個非常棒的季度。 PSS 對我們來說是一個偉大的成功故事。它在市場上獲勝。因此，我們認為這種利潤率挑戰會隨著時間的推移而減弱，尤其是當我們對 Intelligrated 進行了一些流程改進和投資時。

Yes. I would just echo that. I mean, we've always talked about this as creating end market for ourselves for -- to follow later with services and software, that's still our expectation. As Darius mentioned, when the material availability doesn't match up with the installation labor, it becomes challenging. And that's really what we're facing right now. We'll get through it. But it's this availability of material throughout the supply chain creates some big challenges when you're seeing this type of growth.

是的。我只是附和一下。我的意思是，我們一直在談論這是為我們自己創造終端市場——隨後是服務和軟件，這仍然是我們的期望。正如 Darius 提到的，當材料可用性與安裝勞動力不匹配時，它就變得具有挑戰性。而這正是我們現在所面臨的。我們會挺過去的。但是，當您看到這種增長時，整個供應鏈中材料的可用性會帶來一些巨大的挑戰。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Deane, are you there?

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。迪恩，你在嗎？

Yes. Sorry, I was juggling multiple calls this morning. I want to circle back on a topic that Josh raised and just the idea of UOP leading HPS. And it just begs the question about the oil and gas industry CapEx cycle. It's really been slow to recover here. But now with the spike in oil prices, what's your expectation on release of new projects? Even as simple as MRO has still been lagging as well. But what's your outlook there, please?

是的。抱歉，我今天早上忙於打多個電話。我想回到 Josh 提出的話題，以及 UOP 領導 HPS 的想法。它只是迴避了有關石油和天然氣行業資本支出週期的問題。這裡恢復的真的很慢。但現在油價飆升，您對新項目的發布有何期待？即使像 MRO 這樣簡單，也仍然落後。但請問您對此有何看法？

Yes. Look, I think this is becoming fairly obvious, and we all read the same articles and see what's going on, which is there's going to have to be a reinvestment cycle. As much as we all want sustainable and renewable technologies to take over sort of the energy needs tomorrow, it's probably going to be a little bit of a longer term. And it's very clear to me that there's going to be a reinvestment cycle. We're seeing a good reinvestment cycle when I call some of the shorter project, refurbishment focused at the installed base. But we're a strong believer that there's going to be a fairly strong reinvestment cycle in '22 and '23. I think that's necessary. So we're bullish on that segment. And certainly, the price of oil, price of gas support that kind of investment. I mean, if you look at gas and oil, I mean, they're very, very attractive levels. What we need now is some level of stability. So that's good.

是的。看，我認為這變得相當明顯，我們都閱讀了相同的文章，看看發生了什麼，那就是必須要有一個再投資週期。儘管我們都希望可持續和可再生技術能夠滿足明天的某種能源需求，但從長遠來看，這可能會持續一段時間。我很清楚，將會有一個再投資週期。當我調用一些較短的項目時，我們看到了一個良好的再投資週期，翻新集中在已安裝的基礎上。但我們堅信，22 年和 23 年將出現相當強勁的再投資週期。我認為這是必要的。因此，我們看好該細分市場。當然，石油價格和天然氣價格支持這種投資。我的意思是，如果你看一下天然氣和石油，我的意思是，它們是非常非常有吸引力的水平。我們現在需要的是某種程度的穩定性。所以這很好。

But let me give you a couple of other specific data points, Deane. Our renewable fuel orders this past quarter were up 86%. I mean, I think we forget sometimes that we just characterize UOP as oil and gas. It is not just oil and gas. It has an incredibly strong Green Fuels portfolio, which is winning in the marketplace. We've seen 86% growth. Also some of the energy storage controls orders were up 64% this past quarter in our HPS business. So those are just a couple of data points for you that we are very excited about the energy future. We have a portfolio that's going to play in it. Having said that, there's going to have to be a reinvestment cycle in sort of what I call the whole energy infrastructure.

但讓我給你幾個其他具體的數據點，Deane。我們上個季度的可再生燃料訂單增長了 86%。我的意思是，我認為我們有時會忘記我們只是將 UOP 描述為石油和天然氣。不僅僅是石油和天然氣。它擁有令人難以置信的強大綠色燃料產品組合，在市場上贏得了勝利。我們已經看到了 86% 的增長。此外，我們 HPS 業務的一些儲能控制訂單在上個季度增長了 64%。因此，這些只是我們對能源未來感到非常興奮的幾個數據點。我們有一個可以發揮作用的投資組合。話雖如此，我稱之為整個能源基礎設施的再投資週期將不得不出現。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Joe?

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。喬？

Guys, when I take a look at your performance just from a growth standpoint and what we're seeing from a backlog orders perspective, HBT is probably the one where we're seeing the biggest disconnect.

伙計們，當我從增長的角度以及我們從積壓訂單的角度來看你們的表現時，HBT 可能是我們看到最大脫節的地方。

And so I'm curious if you can maybe just provide a little bit more color on whether it's specific components, labor, what specific regions you're really seeing some of these supply issues, supply constrain issues and when we would expect some of that to alleviate for the growth to really pick up?

所以我很好奇你是否可以提供更多的顏色來說明它是否是特定的組件、勞動力、你真正看到這些供應問題的具體區域、供應限制問題以及我們什麼時候會出現這些問題緩解增長真正回升？

Yes. This is one of the places where the electronics shortages are very acute. And so just the fire business, in particular, uses some very specific semiconductors, which have been extremely short. I think Doug Wright and the supply chain team have done a very good job of trying to free up capacity from other distribution points. They've also been doing -- we talked a little bit about the reengineering work. They've done a lot of reengineering to try to include different chipsets into some of their platforms. So this one is really pretty acutely tied to the whole capacity expansion that's going on in the fab industry. So I think we're going to feel this. We talked about the fourth quarter and into the first half of the year. This is one of the businesses, I think, we're going to feel that probably more than others. But it will come to an end. I mean that -- I think it's a very -- it's not 1,000 parts. It's measured in like tens of parts here.

是的。這是電子產品短缺非常嚴重的地方之一。因此，特別是消防行業使用了一些非常特殊的半導體，這些半導體非常短。我認為 Doug Wright 和供應鏈團隊在嘗試釋放其他配送點的產能方面做得非常好。他們也一直在做——我們談了一點關於再設計的工作。他們做了很多重新設計，試圖將不同的芯片組納入他們的一些平台。因此，這確實與晶圓廠行業正在進行的整個產能擴張密切相關。所以我想我們會感受到這一點。我們談到了第四季度和今年上半年。我認為，這是其中一項業務，我們可能比其他業務更能感受到這一點。但它終將結束。我的意思是——我認為這是非常——不是 1,000 個零件。它在這裡被測量成幾十個部分。

Our last question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

You guys noted to an earlier question that defense was down mid-single digits ex the supply chain issues. Maybe could you parse a little bit about how much of that mid-single-digit decline came from U.S. DoD O&M budgets declining versus international programs? And somewhat related to that, margins are still growing pretty nicely despite the supply chain issues and the OE growth in the quarter in Aero. so is defense materially lower? Or was there a better price in the segment?

你們提到了一個較早的問題，即在供應鏈問題之前，防禦下降了中等個位數。也許你能分析一下中等個位數的下降有多少來自美國國防部 O&M 預算下降與國際項目相比？與此相關的是，儘管存在供應鏈問題和 Aero 在本季度的 OE 增長，但利潤率仍在相當不錯地增長。那麼防禦實質上是否較低？還是該細分市場有更好的價格？

Yes. Maybe I'll take the last one first. I mean, think about the operating leverage that we're getting across the portfolio, pretty heavy in Aerospace in particular. I mean, that was the -- we talked about our cost reduction programs last year, and Aero was at the top of that list, PMT second in terms of the level of fixed cost takeout. So part of what you're seeing from Aerospace in terms of almost 400 basis point improvement is a big operating leverage that they're getting, even though it's on only 2% revenue growth. In terms of the split between U.S. DoD and international, I think what we're seeing is similar to what we spoke about before. I mean, the U.S. DoD and international bolt down from a demand perspective as we're going through that recalibration, if you will, on some of the prebuying that had been done last year. And we do see the supply chain issues that we're having are really in a lot of the mechanical spaces. So I expect that we'll start seeing that improve as the supply chain, the Aerospace supply chain complex ramps up into the fourth quarter and into the early part of next year. I don't know if, Torsten, do you want to make a few comments on that?

是的。也許我會先拿最後一個。我的意思是，想想我們在整個投資組合中獲得的運營槓桿，尤其是在航空航天領域。我的意思是，那是——我們去年談到了我們的成本削減計劃，Aero 位居榜首，PMT 在固定成本支出水平方面位居第二。因此，您從航空航天公司看到的近 400 個基點的改進部分是他們獲得的巨大運營槓桿，儘管它的收入增長率僅為 2%。就美國國防部與國際國防部之間的分歧而言，我認為我們所看到的與我們之前談到的相似。我的意思是，如果你願意的話，美國國防部和國際從需求的角度來看，我們正在對去年完成的一些預購進行重新校準。我們確實看到我們遇到的供應鏈問題確實存在於很多機械領域。因此，我預計我們將開始看到供應鏈有所改善，航空航天供應鏈綜合體進入第四季度和明年年初。我不知道 Torsten 是否想對此發表一些評論？

Yes. I mean this is -- we've seen this in '18, '19, and we were eventually able to grow this by 18%, 19%, 20% year-over-year, and this will kick in the next couple of years.

是的。我的意思是——我們在 18 年、19 年已經看到了這一點，我們最終能夠同比增長 18%、19%、20%，這將在接下來的幾年中開始年。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Darius Adamczyk for any additional [closings]. Darius, over to you.

今天的問答環節到此結束。此時，我想將會議轉回 Darius Adamczyk 以尋求任何額外的[閉幕]。大流士，交給你了。

I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered strong third quarter results and continued to navigate effectively through uncertainty, while gaining traction in key strategic growth vectors and positioning ourselves to capitalize on improving key end markets. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy. Thank you.

我要感謝我們的股東一直以來的支持。我們在第三季度取得了強勁的業績，並繼續有效地應對不確定性，同時在關鍵戰略增長方向獲得牽引力，並定位自己以利用改善關鍵終端市場。謝謝大家的聆聽，請保持安全和健康。謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect at this time. Have a wonderful day.

謝謝。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。此時您可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。