漢威聯合 (HON) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Honeywell's Fourth Quarter Earnings Release and 2022 Outlook Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎收聽霍尼韋爾第四季度財報發布和 2022 年展望電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sean, please go ahead.

我現在想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Sean Meakim。肖恩，請繼續。

Thank you, Ari. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings and 2022 Outlook Conference Call.

謝謝你，阿里。早上好，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2021 年第四季度收益和 2022 年展望電話會議。

On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. Also joining us are Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Anne Madden; and Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, Torsten Pilz.

今天與我通話的是董事長兼首席執行官 Darius Adamczyk；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Greg Lewis。加入我們的還有高級副總裁兼總法律顧問 Anne Madden； Torsten Pilz 高級副總裁兼首席供應鏈官。

This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Honeywell also uses our website as a means of disclosing information, which may be of interest or material to our investors and for complying with disclosures under -- obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcasts and social media.

本次電話會議和網絡廣播，包括任何非公認會計原則的對賬，可在我們的網站 www.honeywell.com/investor 上獲得。霍尼韋爾還使用我們的網站作為披露信息的一種方式，這些信息可能對我們的投資者感興趣或具有重要意義，並用於遵守 FD 規定義務下的披露。因此，投資者除了關注我們的新聞稿、SEC 文件、公開電話會議、網絡廣播和社交媒體外，還應關注我們的投資者關係網站。

Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions, and we ask you that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings.

請注意，本演示文稿的元素包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。這些要素可能會根據許多因素而變化，包括不斷變化的經濟和商業條件，我們要求您從這個角度來解釋它們。我們在 10-K 表格年度報告和其他 SEC 文件中確定了可能影響我們業績的主要風險和不確定性。

This morning, we'll review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year '21, discuss our 2022 outlook and share our guidance for the first quarter of 2022 and full year '22. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end.

今天上午，我們將回顧我們第四季度和 21 年全年的財務業績，討論我們的 2022 年展望，並分享我們對 2022 年第一季度和 22 年全年的指導。與往常一樣，我們將在最後留出時間回答您的問題。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給董事長兼首席執行官 Darius Adamczyk。

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，肖恩，大家早上好。

Let's begin on Slide 2. We delivered a strong fourth quarter despite a challenging backdrop that included an accelerated inflationary environment, ongoing supply chain constraints and persistent COVID-19 variants. I'm pleased for our disciplined execution as we navigate these challenges, capitalize on the ongoing recovery in our end markets.

讓我們從幻燈片 2 開始。儘管具有挑戰性的背景，包括加速的通貨膨脹環境、持續的供應鏈限制和持續的 COVID-19 變體，我們還是實現了強勁的第四季度。我很高興我們在應對這些挑戰時有紀律地執行，並利用我們終端市場的持續復甦。

We delivered on our fourth quarter commitments for sales, segment margin and adjusted earnings per share despite these headwinds, with fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.09, up 1% year-over-year and just above the midpoint of our guidance.

儘管存在這些不利因素，我們仍兌現了第四季度對銷售額、部門利潤率和調整後每股收益的承諾，第四季度調整後每股收益為 2.09 美元，同比增長 1%，略高於我們指導的中點。

Organic sales were down 2% year-over-year, and that was heavily impacted by the COVID mass declines and fewer days in the fiscal quarter, which Greg will touch on later. Our focus on differentiated solutions drove double-digit fourth quarter organic sales growth in the commercial aerospace aftermarket, productivity solutions and services, advanced sensing technologies and recurring connected software businesses.

有機銷售額同比下降 2%，這受到 COVID 大規模下降和本財政季度天數減少的嚴重影響，Greg 稍後將談到這一點。我們對差異化解決方案的關注推動了第四季度商業航空售後市場、生產力解決方案和服務、先進傳感技術和經常性互聯軟件業務的兩位數有機銷售增長。

Segment margin expanded 30 basis points year-over-year, led by strong pricing actions that we took again this quarter to address the headwinds we faced from inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions. These swift pricing actions allow us to stay ahead of the inflation curve, driving a 5% increase year-over-year on top line and yielding approximately 50 basis points of margin expansions net of inflation.

分部利潤率同比增長 30 個基點，這得益於我們本季度再次採取的強有力的定價行動，以應對通脹壓力和供應鏈中斷帶來的不利因素。這些快速的定價行動使我們能夠保持領先於通脹曲線，推動收入同比增長 5%，並產生約 50 個基點的利潤率擴張（扣除通脹）。

We generated $2.6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, 4% above the 4Q 2020, achieving 178% adjusted conversion. In terms of capital deployment, we put $2.1 billion of cash to work in the fourth quarter.

我們在本季度產生了 26 億美元的自由現金流，比 2020 年第四季度高出 4%，實現了 178% 的調整後轉化率。在資本配置方面，我們在第四季度投入了 21 億美元現金。

Looking at the entire year, orders across Honeywell grew double digits organically and backlog increased 7% to $27.7 billion driven by strength in many of our segments as we entered 2022. We finished 2021 with 4% organic sales growth, 60 basis points of margin expansion and $8.06 of adjusted earnings per share, up 14% year-over-year.

縱觀全年，霍尼韋爾的訂單實現了兩位數的有機增長，在我們進入 2022 年的許多細分市場的實力推動下，積壓訂單增長 7% 至 277 億美元。我們在 2021 年結束時實現了 4% 的有機銷售增長和 60 個基點的利潤率擴張調整後每股收益 8.06 美元，同比增長 14%。

We generated $5.7 billion of free cash flow in the year, resulting in adjusted conversion of 102% or 17% of revenue, a very strong result. Our earnings per share and our free cash flow performance was above our initial guidance range shared at the start of 2021, demonstrating our ability to deliver on our commitments despite unforeseen challenges and shifting economic conditions.

我們在這一年產生了 57 億美元的自由現金流，調整後的轉化率為 102% 或 17% 的收入，這是一個非常強勁的結果。我們的每股收益和自由現金流表現高於我們在 2021 年初共享的初始指導範圍，這表明我們有能力在不可預見的挑戰和不斷變化的經濟條件下兌現承諾。

In the appendix of this presentation is a slide highlighting our guidance progression throughout 2021 as well as our performance against these guides.

本演示文稿的附錄中有一張幻燈片，重點介紹了我們在 2021 年的指導進展以及我們對這些指導的表現。

On our capital deployment strategy, we have maintained a balanced approach over the past several years, consistently deploying more than 100% of operating cash flow to fund share repurchases, dividends, M&A and capital expenditures. This past year was no exception. In fact, 2021 marks the highest level of capital deployment in the last 6 years. Despite the challenges we faced in 2021, we deployed $8.5 billion of capital, demonstrating our commitment to investing in high-return opportunities in any environment.

在我們的資本部署戰略上，過去幾年我們一直保持平衡，始終將 100% 以上的經營現金流用於股票回購、股息、併購和資本支出。過去的一年也不例外。事實上，2021 年是過去 6 年來資本部署的最高水平。儘管我們在 2021 年面臨挑戰，但我們仍部署了 85 億美元的資本，表明我們致力於在任何環境中投資高回報機會。

We invested $1.6 billion in M&A, adding strategic assets to our portfolio that enhance our technology offerings, innovation and ultimately, our long-term growth potential. Specifically, we completed 4 transactions, including Sparta Systems, Fiplex, Performix and the $270 million we contribute to Quantinuum combination, which I'll talk about -- more about in a moment.

我們在併購方面投資了 16 億美元，為我們的投資組合增加了戰略資產，從而增強了我們的技術產品、創新能力，並最終增強了我們的長期增長潛力。具體來說，我們完成了 4 筆交易，包括 Sparta Systems、Fiplex、Performix 以及我們為 Quantinuum 組合出資的 2.7 億美元，我將稍後再談。

We spent $900 million on capital expenditures to continue to build technologies to make our world safer, more efficient and more sustaining. We deployed $3.4 billion to repurchase shares, reducing our weighted average share count by 1.5%. And finally, we maintained a strong dividend policy, paying out $2.6 billion and raising our dividend again for the 12th time in 11 years.

我們在資本支出上花費了 9 億美元，以繼續開發技術，讓我們的世界更安全、更高效、更可持續。我們部署了 34 億美元回購股票，將我們的加權平均股票數量減少了 1.5%。最後，我們維持了強有力的股息政策，支付了 26 億美元，並在 11 年內第 12 次再次提高股息。

Looking forward, I continue to be encouraged by the strength we are seeing in many areas of our portfolio as we continue to execute on our rigorous and proven value creation framework, underpinned by our accelerator operating system that drives outstanding shareholder value.

展望未來，我繼續對我們在投資組合的許多領域看到的實力感到鼓舞，因為我們將繼續執行我們嚴格且經過驗證的價值創造框架，並以我們的加速器操作系統為基礎，推動卓越的股東價值。

Next, let's turn to Slide 3 to discuss some exciting wins in our Sustainable Technology Solutions business. We continue to make substantial gains for our sustainability business. In the fourth quarter, we announced the commercialization of our UpCycle Process Technology, a revolutionary new process that expands the types of plastics that can be recycled. This process can produce feedstocks used to make recycled plastics with a much lower carbon footprint and has the potential to increase the amount of global plastic waste that can be recycled to 90%.

接下來，讓我們轉向幻燈片 3，討論我們在可持續技術解決方案業務中取得的一些令人興奮的勝利。我們繼續為我們的可持續發展業務取得可觀的收益。在第四季度，我們宣布將 UpCycle Process Technology 商業化，這是一種革命性的新工藝，可擴展可回收塑料的類型。這一過程可以生產用於製造碳足跡低得多的再生塑料的原料，並有可能將全球可回收塑料廢物的數量提高到 90%。

In addition, just last week, we announced our intent to form a joint venture with Avangard Innovative, America's largest plastics recycler, to build an advanced recycling plant in Texas. The facility will use our UpCycle Process Technology and is expected to have the capacity to transform 30,000 metric tons of mixed waste plastics into Honeywell recycled polymer feedstocks per year.

此外，就在上週，我們宣布打算與美國最大的塑料回收商 Avangar Innovation 成立合資企業，在德克薩斯州建立一個先進的回收工廠。該設施將使用我們的 UpCycle 工藝技術，預計每年將有能力將 30,000 公噸混合廢塑料轉化為霍尼韋爾再生聚合物原料。

We also recently announced that we've entered into an agreement with FREYR Battery, the intent to provide smart energy storage solutions to address the needs of a wide range of commercial and industrial customers alike. FREYR will leverage Honeywell's leading technology offerings, including integrated automation, field instrumentation and security integration solutions on manufacturing processes. In turn, Honeywell will purchase 38 gigawatt hours of battery cells produced by FREYR from multiple energy storage system applications.

我們最近還宣布，我們已與 FREYR Battery 達成協議，旨在提供智能儲能解決方案，以滿足廣泛的商業和工業客戶的需求。 FREYR 將利用霍尼韋爾的領先技術產品，包括製造過程中的集成自動化、現場儀表和安全集成解決方案。反過來，霍尼韋爾將從多個儲能係統應用中購買由 FREYR 生產的 38 吉瓦時電池。

Battery energy storage systems technology development is vital to the continued decarbonization of global power system as it will enable the transition to renewable energy sources. In the fourth quarter, we announced an agreement with the University of Texas at Austin that will enable the lower cost capture of carbon dioxide emissions from power plants and heavy industry. We have committed to achieve carbon neutrality in our own operations and facilities by 2035. We are committed to helping our customers use their carbon footprint as well. We'll leverage UT Austin's proprietary advanced solvent technology to help power, steel, cement and other industrial plants lower their emissions and meet their sustainability goals.

電池儲能係統技術的發展對於全球電力系統的持續脫碳至關重要，因為它將促成向可再生能源的過渡。在第四季度，我們宣布與德克薩斯大學奧斯汀分校達成一項協議，該協議將能夠以較低成本捕獲發電廠和重工業的二氧化碳排放。我們承諾到 2035 年在我們自己的運營和設施中實現碳中和。我們也致力於幫助我們的客戶使用他們的碳足跡。我們將利用 UT Austin 專有的先進溶劑技術來幫助電力、鋼鐵、水泥和其他工業工廠降低排放並實現其可持續發展目標。

Finally, we saw tremendous traction in our green fuels business, which uses UOP's Ecofining technology to produce high-quality drop-in fuels from sustainable sources. Over the last few months, we recorded 6 important wins, including 2 large multinational companies.

最後，我們在綠色燃料業務中看到了巨大的吸引力，該業務使用 UOP 的 Ecofining 技術從可持續來源生產高質量的直接燃料。在過去的幾個月裡，我們取得了 6 項重要的勝利，其中包括 2 家大型跨國公司。

In addition, Diamond Green Diesel is using Ecofining technology to produce renewable diesel. They plan on having the capacity to produce over 1 billion gallons per year by the second half of 2022.

此外，Diamond Green Diesel 正在使用 Ecofining 技術生產可再生柴油。他們計劃到 2022 年下半年擁有每年超過 10 億加侖的生產能力。

These are just 4 select examples from our vast portfolio of sustainable offerings. We will continue to innovate, demonstrating that Honeywell will be a key player of the oncoming energy transition.

這些只是我們廣泛的可持續產品組合中的 4 個精選示例。我們將繼續創新，證明霍尼韋爾將成為即將到來的能源轉型的關鍵參與者。

Now let's turn to the next slide to take a look at some of the big commercial developments and how we are aggressively investing in growth.

現在讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片，看看一些大型商業開發項目以及我們如何積極投資於增長。

If you've been following our press releases over the past quarters, including the examples highlighted on the previous slide, you are well aware of the successes we are having with new innovations and partnerships. We have many growth opportunities across the portfolio with new products, businesses or entirely new markets. These areas present high return opportunities to deploy our CapEx and OpEx spend to create value for the future.

如果您在過去幾個季度一直關注我們的新聞稿，包括上一張幻燈片中突出顯示的示例，您就會清楚我們在新的創新和合作夥伴關係方面取得的成功。我們在新產品、業務或全新市場的產品組合中擁有許多增長機會。這些領域提供了高回報的機會，可以部署我們的資本支出和運營支出，為未來創造價值。

To highlight a few examples, in 2022, we are increasing CapEx investment to expand our Solstice production capacity, commercialize our advanced plastics recycling technology and build additional generations of both commercial and development quantum computers. To fund key investment priorities in '22, we plan to spend $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion in CapEx, up $200 million versus 2021, up 25% versus the prior 3 years. Our 2022 research and development priorities will be continued innovation in sustainable technologies, developing our next-generation flight deck and investment in new engine development, to name a few.

舉幾個例子，2022 年，我們將增加資本支出投資，以擴大我們的 Solstice 產能，將我們先進的塑料回收技術商業化，並建造更多代商業和開發量子計算機。為了為 22 年的關鍵投資優先事項提供資金，我們計劃在資本支出上花費 11 億至 12 億美元，比 2021 年增加 2 億美元，比前 3 年增加 25%。我們 2022 年的研發重點將是可持續技術的持續創新、開發我們的下一代駕駛艙和投資新發動機開發等。

R&D for '22 will be up approximately $200 million or 15% year-over-year and up 10% versus the prior 3 years. Our internal spending on capital projects in the R&D has consistently been the highest return deployment of our capital. We'll continue to make these investments to drive our future growth.

'22 的研發將同比增長約 2 億美元或 15%，與前 3 年相比增長 10%。我們在研發資本項目上的內部支出一直是我們資本回報率最高的部署。我們將繼續進行這些投資以推動我們未來的增長。

Also, Honeywell Digital, one of the 3 main transformation initiatives, has fundamentally changed the way we work and resulted in $1 billion of cumulative sales, productivity, and working capital benefits since 2018. We'll continue to invest in our digitization efforts to drive efficiencies and produce valuable data-driven insights.

此外，霍尼韋爾數字化是三大轉型計劃之一，它從根本上改變了我們的工作方式，自 2018 年以來累計實現了 10 億美元的銷售額、生產力和營運資金收益。我們將繼續投資於數字化工作，以推動效率並產生有價值的數據驅動的見解。

While this may be a modest drag on our cash generation in '22, these investments are crucial to accelerating our growth and drive transformation across our portfolio.

雖然這可能對我們在 22 年的現金產生造成適度拖累，但這些投資對於加速我們的增長和推動我們投資組合的轉型至關重要。

Let's turn to Slide 5 to take a closer look at Quantinuum, which is one of the major breakthrough initiatives for Honeywell.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 5 來仔細了解 Quantinuum，它是霍尼韋爾的重大突破性舉措之一。

In the fourth quarter, we completed our previously announced business combination of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum to form a new company, Quantinuum. As mentioned in our investor communications throughout 2021, this combination marries the leading quantum computing hardware, the leading quantum computing software to form the largest and most advanced integrated stand-alone quantum computing company in the world.

在第四季度，我們完成了之前宣布的 Honeywell Quantum Solutions 和 Cambridge Quantum 的業務合併，成立了一家新公司 Quantinuum。正如我們在整個 2021 年的投資者通訊中所提到的，這種組合結合了領先的量子計算硬件、領先的量子計算軟件，形成了全球最大、最先進的集成獨立量子計算公司。

Quantinuum technology will help solve some of the world's most pressing challenges, including breakthroughs in drug discovery and delivery, material science and industrial optimization, to just name a few. Quantinuum cybersecurity offering launched in December. Quantum Origin is the world's first commercial product built upon quantum computers that delivers outcomes that classical computers could not achieve. This revolutionary new product will be crucial to companies and governments, who need to ensure protection of sensitive information against adversaries and criminals.

Quantinuum 技術將幫助解決一些世界上最緊迫的挑戰，包括藥物發現和交付、材料科學和工業優化等方面的突破，僅舉幾例。 Quantinuum 網絡安全產品於 12 月推出。 Quantum Origin 是世界上第一個基於量子計算機的商業產品，它提供了傳統計算機無法實現的結果。這種革命性的新產品對於需要確保敏感信息免受對手和犯罪分子侵害的公司和政府來說至關重要。

With the introduction of Quantum Origin, which is already serving Fortune 500 customers today, we expect Quantinuum to reach approximately $2 billion of sales by 2026, 1 year earlier than the estimate we provided in our leadership webcast back in November.

隨著今天已經為財富 500 強客戶提供服務的 Quantum Origin 的推出，我們預計到 2026 年，Quantinuum 的銷售額將達到約 20 億美元，比我們在 11 月的領導網絡廣播中提供的估計提前一年。

Upon the completion of the combination, Honeywell invested $270 million into Quantinuum, and Honeywell currently owns a majority stake. We expect a slight margin headwind of 30 basis points to Honeywell in 2022 due to increased R&D spend associated with Quantinuum, as shown on the previous slide. Overall, we expect Quantinuum to be $150 million headwind to EBITDA. However, this R&D investment will yield great returns as we accelerate the commercialization of this revolutionary technology.

合併完成後，霍尼韋爾向 Quantinuum 投資 2.7 億美元，霍尼韋爾目前擁有多數股權。如上一張幻燈片所示，由於與 Quantinuum 相關的研發支出增加，我們預計 2022 年霍尼韋爾的利潤率將略微下降 30 個基點。總體而言，我們預計 Quantinuum 對 EBITDA 的不利影響為 1.5 億美元。然而，隨著我們加速這項革命性技術的商業化，這項研發投資將產生巨大回報。

The appendix of this presentation contains a slide explaining the 2022 financial impact to Honeywell in more detail.

本演示文稿的附錄包含一張幻燈片，更詳細地解釋了 2022 年對霍尼韋爾的財務影響。

We believe this unique opportunity for investors to gain exposure to an early-stage growth technology company at an industrial multiple. Quantinuum is the best positioned company to lead quantum computing and has all the building blocks to be the frontrunner in what is projected to be a $1 trillion industry.

我們相信這是投資者以工業倍數獲得早期成長科技公司的獨特機會。 Quantinuum 是引領量子計算的最佳定位公司，並且擁有所有構建模塊，可以成為預計價值 1 萬億美元的行業的領跑者。

Now I will turn the call over to Greg to discuss our fourth quarter results and 2022 outlook in more detail.

現在，我將把電話轉給格雷格，以更詳細地討論我們的第四季度業績和 2022 年展望。

Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，大流士，大家早上好。

Let's turn to Slide 6. As Darius highlighted, we delivered on our financial commitments despite a very difficult operating environment. Fourth quarter sales declined 2% organically as supply chain constraints continued in the quarter, predominantly in Aero, HBT and SPS. The quarter also had difficult year-over-year comps with lower COVID-related mass demand impacting growth by 2 percentage points and 6 fewer days than fiscal 4Q 2020, which is worth approximately 3 percentage points.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 6。正如 Darius 強調的那樣，儘管經營環境非常困難，但我們兌現了我們的財務承諾。由於供應鏈在本季度持續受限，主要是 Aero、HBT 和 SPS，第四季度銷售額有機下降 2%。該季度的同比增長也很困難，與 COVID 相關的大眾需求下降對增長的影響比 2020 財年第四季度減少了 2 個百分點和減少了 6 天，後者價值約 3 個百分點。

Turning to the segments. Aerospace fourth quarter sales were down 3% organically compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 as we continue to manage through the supply chain constraints we're facing. Continued flight hour improvement led to over 20% year-over-year growth in air transport aftermarket sales and over 10% growth in business and general aviation aftermarket sales. Business& General Aviation original equipment sales also grew double digits in the quarter. Defense & Space was down 18% year-over-year in the fourth quarter with softness in U.S. defense, partially offset by international defense, which grew sequentially and year-over-year.

轉向細分市場。與 2020 年第四季度相比，航空航天第四季度的銷售額有機下降了 3%，因為我們繼續應對面臨的供應鏈限制。持續的飛行小時改進導致航空運輸售後市場銷售額同比增長超過 20%，公務和通用航空售後市場銷售額增長超過 10%。商務和通用航空原始設備銷售額在本季度也實現了兩位數增長。第四季度國防與航天業務同比下降 18%，美國國防業務疲軟，部分被國際防務部門抵消，國際防務業務同比和環比增長。

Segment margins expanded 140 basis points to 29% as a result of value capture, improved business mix with higher aftermarket sales and productivity partially offset by higher cost of materials.

由於價值捕獲、業務組合的改善以及售後市場銷售額的增加和生產力的提高，部門利潤率擴大了 140 個基點，達到 29%，部分抵消了材料成本的上漲。

Building Technologies sales declined 1% organically year-over-year due to continuing supply chain constraints across the business, partially offset by pricing, though orders were up 4% in the quarter. Backlog in Building Solutions was up double digits year-over-year with growth in both projects and services, positioning HBT for strong performance in 2022.

由於整個業務的供應鏈持續受限，建築技術銷售額同比有機下降 1%，部分被定價所抵消，儘管該季度的訂單增長了 4%。隨著項目和服務的增長，建築解決方案的積壓量同比增長兩位數，使 HBT 在 2022 年實現強勁表現。

Our Healthy Buildings portfolio finished the year strong with over $200 million of orders in the quarter, bringing the total orders for 2021 to well over $400 million. Segment margins in HBT continue to be strong at 21.1% in the quarter, though it was down 30 basis points year-over-year, driven by lower volume leverage and cost inflation, mostly offset by favorable pricing.

我們的健康建築產品組合在本季度以超過 2 億美元的訂單完成了強勁的年度業績，使 2021 年的總訂單超過 4 億美元。本季度 HBT 的分部利潤率繼續保持強勁，達到 21.1%，儘管由於銷量槓桿和成本通脹下降，但同比下降 30 個基點，大部分被有利的定價所抵消。

In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales were up 2% organically, led by 7% growth in UOP and 5% growth in Advanced Materials. UOP sales growth was driven by higher petrochemical catalyst and gas processing shipments while Advanced Materials benefited from continued double-digit sales growth in Life Sciences and Protective and Industrial Solutions.

在高性能材料和技術領域，銷售額有機增長 2%，其中 UOP 增長 7%，先進材料增長 5%。 UOP 銷售增長受到石化催化劑和氣體加工出貨量增加的推動，而 Advanced Materials 受益於生命科學和防護和工業解決方案的持續兩位數銷售增長。

Process Solutions sales were down 3% organically with slower recovery in projects and supply availability constraining smart energy production. However, orders growth across the HPS portfolio, including double-digit orders growth in the projects businesses, provides confidence in the longer-term outlook for the business.

過程解決方案銷售額有機下降 3%，原因是項目恢復速度較慢，供應可用性限制了智能能源生產。然而，整個 HPS 產品組合的訂單增長，包括項目業務的兩位數訂單增長，為該業務的長期前景提供了信心。

Orders in UOP were up 25% year-over-year, including triple digits in Sustainable Technology Solutions, another signal for strong 2022 growth. PMT segment margins expanded 430 basis points to 23% in the fourth quarter, driven by favorable pricing and productivity, net of inflation.

UOP 的訂單同比增長 25%，包括可持續技術解決方案的三位數，這是 2022 年強勁增長的另一個信號。 PMT 部門的利潤率在第四季度擴大了 430 個基點，達到 23%，這得益於有利的定價和生產力（扣除通貨膨脹）。

Turning to Safety and Productivity Solutions, where sales were down 6% organically, mainly due to a 12-point impact from COVID-related masks. Intelligrated was flat year-over-year and down sequentially, as expected, as the level of delivery and installation came down from its 2Q peak.

轉向安全和生產力解決方案，銷售額自然下降 6%，主要是由於與 COVID 相關的口罩造成 12 個百分點的影響。正如預期的那樣，隨著交付和安裝水平從第二季度的峰值回落，Intelligrated 同比持平並環比下降。

Productivity Solutions and Services continues to be a star in the portfolio, along with the Sensing business, both of which had double-digit sales growth in the quarter. SPS backlog remains above $4 billion as declines in the mask business were mostly offset by triple-digit growth in Advanced Sensing and Technologies and over 90% growth in Productivity Solutions and Services, giving us confidence in the future growth. SPS segment margins contracted 450 basis points to 10.8%, driven by lower volume leverage and inefficiencies caused by ongoing supply chain challenges in Intelligrated, which we highlighted in our previous earnings call, and I'll touch on again in a moment.

生產力解決方案和服務以及傳感業務仍然是該產品組合中的明星，這兩項業務在本季度均實現了兩位數的銷售額增長。 SPS 積壓仍高於 40 億美元，因為掩模業務的下滑大部分被先進傳感和技術的三位數增長以及生產力解決方案和服務超過 90% 的增長所抵消，這讓我們對未來的增長充滿信心。 SPS 部門的利潤率收縮 450 個基點至 10.8%，這是由於 Intelligrated 中持續的供應鏈挑戰導致的較低的銷量槓桿和效率低下，我們在之前的財報電話會議中強調了這一點，我稍後再談。

So for overall Honeywell, we delivered 30 basis points of segment margin improvement with margin expansion in PMT and Aero, ending the quarter with segment margins of 21.4%, a 20 basis point sequential improvement versus the third quarter. We drove targeted pricing again in the quarter across the portfolio to combat the accelerated impacts of inflation.

因此，對於霍尼韋爾的整體而言，隨著 PMT 和 Aero 的利潤率擴張，我們實現了 30 個基點的分部利潤率提高，本季度末分部利潤率為 21.4%，與第三季度相比連續提高 20 個基點。我們在本季度再次推動整個投資組合的目標定價，以應對通脹的加速影響。

On EPS, we delivered fourth quarter GAAP earnings per share of $2.05 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.09, which was up $0.02 year-over-year. A bridge for our adjusted earnings per share from 4Q '20 to 4Q '21 can be found in the appendix of this presentation.

在每股收益方面，我們第四季度的 GAAP 每股收益為 2.05 美元，調整後的每股收益為 2.09 美元，同比增長 0.02 美元。在本演示文稿的附錄中可以找到我們從 20 年第四季度到 21 年第四季度調整後每股收益的橋樑。

Segment profit was a $0.03 headwind, driven primarily by lower volume due to fewer days, mask volumes and supply chain constraints, offset by price and cost actions. Higher effective tax rate, 19.7% this year versus 18.9% last year, drove a $0.02 headwind. Share count reduction drove a $0.04 year-over-year tailwind to earnings per share, and we saw a $0.03 benefit from below-the-line items due to higher pension income that was partially offset by increased repositioning and other.

分部利潤是 0.03 美元的逆風，主要是由於天數減少、口罩數量和供應鏈限制導致銷量下降，但被價格和成本行為所抵消。更高的有效稅率（今年為 19.7%，去年為 18.9%）帶來了 0.02 美元的阻力。股票數量減少推動每股收益同比增長 0.04 美元，我們看到線下項目帶來 0.03 美元的收益，原因是養老金收入增加，部分被重新定位和其他增加所抵消。

Repositioning and other specifically was approximately $160 million, just below the midpoint of our 4Q guidance of $140 million to $215 million and included a $105 million charge in the fourth quarter due to incremental long-term contract labor cost overages in Intelligrated caused by severe supply chain disruptions from COVID-19. The accelerating challenges of supply chain disruptions and labor shortages in the second half of '21, coupled with the hyper growth of the business and the link between material supply and installation efficiency in the Intelligrated model, drove specific identifiable nonrecurring costs, which were recorded in repositioning and other. This charge is forward-looking and accounts for projects which are yet to be completed. In 2022, we expect roughly $30 million to $50 million of carryover costs, the impact of which is incorporated into our 2022 repositioning and other guidance.

重新定位和其他具體費用約為 1.6 億美元，略低於我們 4 季度 1.4 億美元至 2.15 億美元指引的中點，其中包括由於嚴重的供應鏈導致 Intelligrated 長期合同勞動力成本超支增加而導致的第四季度 1.05 億美元費用COVID-19 造成的干擾。 21 年下半年供應鏈中斷和勞動力短缺帶來的加速挑戰，加上業務的高速增長以及 Intelligrated 模型中材料供應和安裝效率之間的聯繫，推動了特定的可識別非經常性成本，這些成本記錄在重新定位等。這項收費是前瞻性的，並考慮了尚未完成的項目。 2022 年，我們預計結轉成本約為 3000 萬至 5000 萬美元，其影響已納入我們 2022 年的重新定位和其他指導。

Other inefficiencies were reflected in the Intelligrated and SPS P&L, as I mentioned earlier in the discussion of the SPS margins.

正如我在前面討論 SPS 利潤率時提到的，Intelligrated 和 SPS 損益表中也反映了其他低效率。

Moving on to cash. We generated $2.6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, up 4% year-over-year. This increase was driven by lower working capital, including strong collections and world-class payables, offset by higher inventory as we continue to work through the constrained supply chain environment and extended lead times.

繼續現金。我們在本季度產生了 26 億美元的自由現金流，同比增長 4%。這一增長是由較低的營運資金推動的，包括強勁的收款和世界一流的應付賬款，但隨著我們繼續在受限的供應鏈環境和延長交貨時間中工作，庫存增加抵消了這一影響。

We also had a $211 million accelerated cash receipt in the quarter from Garrett per our contractual claims under the plan of reorganization signed last year. As a reminder, we include cash receipts from Garrett within free cash flow in order to be comparable to prior periods, where the cash proceeds from the indemnification and reimbursement agreement were recognized.

根據去年簽署的重組計劃，我們在本季度還從加勒特獲得了 2.11 億美元的加速現金收入。提醒一下，我們將來自 Garrett 的現金收入包括在自由現金流中，以便與之前的期間進行比較，其中確認了賠償和償還協議的現金收益。

Finally, as Darius mentioned earlier, we deployed $2.1 billion towards high-return opportunities for our shareholders. We paid $680 million in dividends, repurchased $880 million in shares, over delivering on our commitment of a minimum 1% share count in '21, and we deployed approximately $280 million in CapEx and invested $270 million in Quantinuum.

最後，正如 Darius 之前提到的，我們為股東的高回報機會投入了 21 億美元。我們支付了 6.8 億美元的股息，回購了 8.8 億美元的股票，超過了我們在 21 年至少持有 1% 股份的承諾，我們在資本支出中部署了大約 2.8 億美元，在 Quantinuum 投資了 2.7 億美元。

So overall, we managed successfully through another challenging quarter and closed out 2021 on a strong note.

因此，總體而言，我們成功度過了另一個充滿挑戰的季度，並以強勁的勢頭結束了 2021 年。

Now let's turn to Slide 7 to talk about our markets and segment outlook for 2022. We continue to see promising signs of the recovery unfolds as well as encouraging wins in our key markets. The backdrop for 2022 does have a number of uncertainties in it, the ongoing global pandemic, continued supply chain constraints, accelerated inflation and labor market challenges. And at each turn, our rigorous operating principles have enabled us to demonstrate our agility and resiliency battling these situations.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 7，談談我們對 2022 年的市場和細分市場前景。我們繼續看到復甦的積極跡象，以及在我們的主要市場取得令人鼓舞的勝利。 2022 年的背景確實存在許多不確定性，包括持續的全球大流行、持續的供應鏈限制、通脹加速和勞動力市場挑戰。在每一個轉折點，我們嚴格的運營原則都使我們能夠展示我們與這些情況作鬥爭的敏捷性和彈性。

Across our end markets, the macro setup continues to be strong. Increased COVID-19 vaccination rates and higher immunity should lessen infection rates, pointing to signs of the pandemic subsiding and leading to continued improvement in global flight hours and returns to buildings. Investments will continue to flow towards transitioning global energy production to a low-carbon future, and Honeywell will continue to lead that evolution as we invest in our strategically differentiated and sustainable technologies.

在我們的終端市場，宏觀設置繼續強勁。增加的 COVID-19 疫苗接種率和更高的免疫力應該會降低感染率，這表明大流行消退的跡象並導致全球飛行時間和返回建築物的持續改善。投資將繼續流向將全球能源生產轉變為低碳未來，而霍尼韋爾將繼續引領這一演變，因為我們投資於我們的戰略差異化和可持續技術。

We expect supply chain impacts to remain as challenging in the first half of the year as they were in the third and fourth quarter, and they'll start to abate as the aero supply base ramps up and capacity for electronic components comes online in the third quarter. Inflation will continue to be a significant headwind. However, our agile pricing actions will dampen the impacts to margin throughout the year.

我們預計今年上半年供應鏈的影響將與第三季度和第四季度一樣具有挑戰性，並且隨著航空供應基地的增加和電子元件產能在第三季度上線，這些影響將開始減弱四分之一。通貨膨脹將繼續是一個重大不利因素。然而，我們靈活的定價行動將抑制全年對利潤率的影響。

Corporate tax legislation continues to be a watch area for both earnings and cash, which I'll talk about a little bit later.

公司稅立法仍然是收入和現金的關注領域，我稍後會談到。

As for the segments, in '22, we expect Aerospace to continue to benefit from the recovery in flight hours, leading to robust growth in commercial aftermarket sales. Commercial build rates will continue to improve, especially in air transport, providing growth in original equipment sales, but creating some mix headwinds on margins.

至於細分市場，在 22 年，我們預計航空航天將繼續受益於飛行小時數的恢復，從而推動商業售後市場銷售的強勁增長。商業建設率將繼續提高，尤其是在航空運輸方面，這將推動原始設備銷售的增長，但會在利潤率上產生一些混合阻力。

Defense & Space sales will experience progressively improved performance as supply chain challenges abate, returning the business to growth in the second half and ending the year roughly flat.

隨著供應鏈挑戰的緩解，國防和航天銷售的業績將逐步改善，下半年業務將恢復增長，年底基本持平。

In total, we expect Aerospace sales to be up high single digits for the year. Despite some mix pressure and the ramp-up in R&D expenses for the long-term programs, margins will expand as Honeywell Quantum Solutions business investment moves out of Aero and into corporate costs.

總體而言，我們預計今年航空航天銷售額將增長高個位數。儘管存在一些混合壓力並且長期計劃的研發費用增加，但隨著霍尼韋爾量子解決方案業務投資從航空轉向企業成本，利潤率將擴大。

HBT will see continued strong demand in '22 as the world continues to reopen and sustainable solutions see increased use. We expect end markets to gradually recover throughout the year, including government, education and office buildings. Increased government funding for infrastructure, both in the U.S. and Europe, provide further opportunities across the portfolio.

隨著世界繼續重新開放和可持續解決方案的使用增加，HBT 將在 22 年看到持續強勁的需求。我們預計終端市場將在全年逐步復甦，包括政府、教育和辦公樓。美國和歐洲政府對基礎設施的資助增加，為整個投資組合提供了更多機會。

Pressure from supply chain constraints, particularly semiconductors, will impact the business, especially in the first half, but we'll continue to execute on our mitigation actions and expect the business to grow high single digits for the year. We expect our margins to expand, driven by higher sales on our streamlined cost base.

來自供應鏈限制的壓力，尤其是半導體，將影響業務，尤其是在上半年，但我們將繼續執行我們的緩解措施，並預計該業務今年將實現高個位數增長。我們預計，在我們精簡成本基礎上的更高銷售額的推動下，我們的利潤率將會擴大。

Performance Materials and Technologies has one of the most favorable macro setups in our portfolio, and we will see growth accelerate throughout the year. We expect Process Solutions sales to sequentially improve. Process Solutions product orders will continue to grow at a healthy rate following the double-digit orders growth we saw in the fourth quarter of '21 as traditional energy projects begin to gradually recover, and we see strength across new verticals like life sciences and sustainable energy storage that are driving increased demand.

高性能材料和技術在我們的產品組合中擁有最有利的宏觀設置之一，我們將看到全年增長加速。我們預計流程解決方案的銷售額將依次提高。隨著傳統能源項目開始逐漸復蘇，我們在 21 年第四季度看到兩位數的訂單增長後，流程解決方案產品訂單將繼續以健康的速度增長，我們看到生命科學和可持續能源等新垂直領域的實力推動需求增長的存儲。

The increase in UOP engineering and licensing orders over the past few months gives us confidence in the follow-on Process Solutions projects growth over the medium term. UOP catalyst shipments will remain strong as demand shifts from petrochemicals to refining, where we expect a reload cycle to emerge in the energy space.

過去幾個月 UOP 工程和許可訂單的增加使我們對後續過程解決方案項目在中期的增長充滿信心。隨著需求從石化轉向煉油，UOP 催化劑的出貨量將保持強勁，我們預計能源領域將出現一個重新加載週期。

Advanced Materials demand remains robust, and we expect sales to increase throughout the year, especially as we complete production capacity expansion projects such as our planned increase in our Solstice line of ultra-low global warming potential solutions. In addition to Solstice, our other sustainable offerings in renewable fuels, carbon capture, energy storage and plastics recycling will benefit from the increased customer focus on environmental responsibility and efficiency.

先進材料需求依然強勁，我們預計全年銷售額將增加，尤其是在我們完成產能擴張項目後，例如我們計劃增加 Solstice 超低全球變暖潛值解決方案系列產品線。除了 Solstice，我們在可再生燃料、碳捕獲、能源儲存和塑料回收方面的其他可持續產品將受益於客戶對環境責任和效率的日益關注。

In total, we expect PMT sales to be up mid to high single digits for the year. We expect PMT margins to expand as well as a result of continued pricing and productivity actions as well as increased volume leverage.

總的來說，我們預計今年 PMT 銷售額將達到中高個位數。我們預計 PMT 的利潤率將會擴大，以及持續的定價和生產力行動以及銷量槓桿的增加。

In Safety and Productivity Solutions, demand for productivity solutions and services, advanced sensing technologies and gas detection all remain strong, and their increased backlogs create strong runway for '22 growth. Lower COVID-related mass demand will affect the first quarter most heavily, driving a 9% drag on SPS in Q1 and then will abate throughout the year.

在安全和生產力解決方案方面，對生產力解決方案和服務、先進傳感技術和氣體檢測的需求都保持強勁，其增加的積壓為 22 年的增長創造了強勁的跑道。與 COVID 相關的大眾需求下降對第一季度的影響最大，在第一季度拖累 SPS 9%，然後將在全年減弱。

In Intelligrated, after ending 2021 with approximately 50% year-over-year hyper growth, we expect sales to be flattish year-over-year in '22 as we adjust our portfolio towards a better balance of growth and near-term profitability. We're targeting substantial margin expansion in Intelligrated in 2022 and expect sequential improvement throughout the year, with the second half revenue being higher than the first, the opposite dynamic versus what we saw in 2021.

在 Intelligrated，在 2021 年結束時實現了約 50% 的同比超增長，我們預計 22 年的銷售額將與去年同期持平，因為我們調整我們的投資組合以實現更好的增長平衡和近期盈利能力。我們的目標是在 2022 年大幅擴大 Intelligrated 的利潤率，並預計全年連續改善，下半年收入高於上半年，與我們在 2021 年看到的動態相反。

So overall, we expect SPS sales to be flattish year-over-year, with sales growth higher in the second half versus the first half and margins expanding materially as business mix and supply chain challenges subside.

因此，總體而言，我們預計 SPS 銷售額將同比持平，下半年銷售額增長高於上半年，隨著業務組合和供應鏈挑戰的消退，利潤率將大幅擴大。

So overall for Honeywell, we see improvement across most of our end markets throughout '22, and we have confidence in our continued operational execution. We'll manage through another challenging operational environment with accelerating growth as the year progresses.

因此，對於霍尼韋爾而言，總體而言，我們看到整個 22 年我們的大多數終端市場都有所改善，我們對我們持續的運營執行充滿信心。隨著時間的推移，我們將通過另一個具有挑戰性的運營環境來管理並加速增長。

Now let's move to Slide 8 to discuss how these dynamics come together for our 2022 financial guidance. In total, for '22, we expect sales of $35.4 billion to $36.4 billion, which represents overall organic sales growth in the range of 4% to 7%. We'll continue to drive pricing actions to combat this inflationary environment, and we expect approximately 4% of our sales growth to come through price. Excluding the impact of the lower COVID mask demand, which will approximately be a 1 point headwind, we expect organic growth of 5% to 8%.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 8，討論這些動態如何為我們的 2022 年財務指導結合起來。總的來說，對於 22 年，我們預計銷售額為 354 億美元至 364 億美元，這代表整體有機銷售額增長在 4% 至 7% 之間。我們將繼續推動定價行動以應對這種通脹環境，我們預計大約 4% 的銷售額增長將來自價格。排除較低的 COVID 口罩需求的影響，這將是大約 1 個百分點的逆風，我們預計有機增長 5% 至 8%。

The first half will be slower and, as additional supplier capacity comes online, we'll see significant sequential improvement and stronger growth in the back half of the year.

上半年將放緩，隨著更多供應商產能上線，我們將在下半年看到顯著的環比改善和更強勁的增長。

Segment margins are expanded -- are expected to expand 10 to 50 basis points, despite a robust investment year, supported by higher sales volumes, price/cost management and our continued rigor on fixed costs.

儘管投資年表現強勁，但在銷量增長、價格/成本管理以及我們對固定成本的持續嚴格支持下，分部利潤率有所擴大——預計將擴大 10 至 50 個基點。

Excluding the 30 basis point headwind from Quantinuum OpEx that Darius mentioned earlier, we expect margins to expand 40 to 80 basis points. We are excited about the trajectory of Quantinuum and the value creation that this investment will bring. We expect margin expansion across all of our businesses in '22, with SPS leading the pack as we prioritize profitability versus growth.

排除 Darius 之前提到的 Quantinuum OpEx 帶來的 30 個基點的逆風，我們預計利潤率將擴大 40 至 80 個基點。我們對 Quantinuum 的發展軌跡以及這項投資將帶來的價值創造感到興奮。我們預計 22 年我們所有業務的利潤率都會擴大，在我們優先考慮盈利能力而不是增長的情況下，SPS 將處於領先地位。

For the year, we expect earnings per share of $8.40 to $8.70, up 4% to 8% adjusted. We see free cash flow in the range of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion in '22 or $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion, excluding Quantinuum, which I'll walk through in a couple of minutes.

今年，我們預計每股收益為 8.40 美元至 8.70 美元，調整後增長 4% 至 8%。我們看到 22 年的自由現金流在 47 億美元到 51 億美元之間或 49 億美元到 53 億美元之間，不包括我將在幾分鐘內介紹的 Quantinuum。

For now let's turn to Slide 9 and talk through our 2022 EPS bridge. On EPS, segment profit is expected to be a key driver of our earnings growth, contributing $0.58 per share at the midpoint of our guidance or about 7% growth.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 9 並通過我們的 2022 EPS 橋樑進行討論。在每股收益方面，預計分部利潤將成為我們盈利增長的關鍵驅動力，在我們指導的中點或約 7% 的增長中貢獻每股 0.58 美元。

Next, below the line, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax, is expected to be in the range of negative $100 million to positive $50 million, which reserves capacity for $300 million to $425 million of repositioning and other. This includes between $30 million and $50 million related to the carryover cost from supply chain disruptions in Intelligrated.

接下來，低於分部利潤與稅前收入之間的差額，預計將在負 1 億美元至正 5000 萬美元之間，這為 3 億美元至 4.25 億美元的重新定位和其他儲備能力。這包括與 Intelligrated 供應鏈中斷造成的結轉成本相關的 3000 萬美元至 5000 萬美元。

On the pension front, we expect approximately [$1,050,000,000] of pension and OPEB income in '22, down approximately $100 million from 2021, as we have adjusted our plans for higher discount rates due to interest rate movements and the adjustment of our expected returns.

在養老金方面，我們預計 22 年的養老金和 OPEB 收入約為 [1,050,000,000 美元]，比 2021 年減少約 1 億美元，因為由於利率變動和預期回報的調整，我們已經調整了更高貼現率的計劃。

Our diligent management and strong returns have been an important value driver for the company, putting us in a position where our pension-funded status continues to be robust, ending the year at approximately 120%. With these inputs, below the line and other items are expected to be down $0.15 per share year-over-year at the midpoint, mainly driven by the lower pension income.

我們勤奮的管理和強勁的回報一直是公司重要的價值驅動因素，使我們的養老金基金地位繼續保持強勁，年底約為 120%。有了這些投入，預計中點線以下和其他項目將同比下降 0.15 美元，主要是由於養老金收入下降。

Quantinuum will result in a headwind of approximately $0.03 per share as the net P&L investment is partially offset with noncontrolling interest.

Quantinuum 將導致每股約 0.03 美元的逆風，因為淨損益投資被非控制性權益部分抵消。

For taxes, we expect an effective rate of 22%, and our base case is that our minimum 1% share count reduction program will result in a benefit of $0.09 per share, reducing our weighted average shares from 700 million to at least 693 million.

對於稅收，我們預計有效稅率為 22%，我們的基本情況是，我們的最低 1% 股票數量減少計劃將帶來每股 0.09 美元的收益，將我們的加權平均股票從 7 億股減少到至少 6.93 億股。

So in total, we expect '22 earnings per share to be in the range of $8.40 to $8.70, up 48% year-over-year adjusted. However, excluding the impact from Quantum and below the line and other items, we would see year-over-year earnings per share growth of 8% at the midpoint.

因此，總的來說，我們預計 22 年每股收益將在 8.40 美元至 8.70 美元之間，調整後同比增長 48%。然而，排除昆騰及線下及其他項目的影響，我們預計中點每股收益將同比增長 8%。

Now let's turn to Slide 10 and discuss the drivers of our free cash flow guidance for '22. As we outlined on this bridge, 2022 cash flow will be the tale of 3 dynamics: healthy net income growth, 2 meaningful nonoperational adjustments, and an increase in investment in exciting growth vectors. The 2 main detractors are lower Garrett cash receipts due to an elevated payment of $375 million in 2021 and higher cash taxes between $400 million and $600 million, as current R&D -- capitalization, tax legislation and other law changes may result in meaningful year-over-year headwinds. While there is still a possibility that legislation will be enacted that defers the requirement to capitalize R&D, we are including higher cash taxes in our current outlook as we'll be required to make these payments unless existing law is amended by legislation before the end of March.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 10，討論我們 22 年自由現金流指導的驅動因素。正如我們在這座橋上概述的那樣，2022 年的現金流將是 3 種動態的故事：健康的淨收入增長、2 次有意義的非運營調整以及對令人興奮的增長載體的投資增加。兩個主要的批評者是由於 2021 年支付的 3.75 億美元增加而導致的 Garrett 現金收入較低，以及由於當前的研發、資本化、稅收立法和其他法律變化可能導致有意義的年復一年增加 4 億至 6 億美元的現金稅- 年的逆風。儘管仍有可能頒布立法以推遲將研發資本化的要求，但我們在當前展望中包括了更高的現金稅，因為除非現行法律在年底前通過立法進行修訂，否則我們將被要求支付這些款項行進。

As you would expect from Honeywell, we'll continue investing in our long-term growth with between $200 million and $300 million incremental capital expenditures in '22 to build solutions that will help us solve challenging problems for our customers and address critical global sustainability issues. In addition, as Darius highlighted, we're investing an incremental $100 million in cutting-edge technology like Quantinuum. These strategically important investments are building on the momentum we have with the recent wins, both in sustainable solutions and more broadly across Honeywell, creating value for our shareholders.

正如您對霍尼韋爾的期望，我們將繼續投資於我們的長期增長，在 22 年增加 2 億至 3 億美元的資本支出，以構建解決方案，幫助我們為客戶解決具有挑戰性的問題並解決關鍵的全球可持續發展問題.此外，正如 Darius 強調的那樣，我們正在向 Quantinuum 等尖端技術投資 1 億美元。這些具有戰略意義的投資正在鞏固我們最近在可持續解決方案和更廣泛的霍尼韋爾取得勝利的勢頭，為我們的股東創造價值。

This outlook could, of course, get better if tax law changes play out differently, and our CapEx this year should be a bit of a peak. So I'm very confident that we'll continue to be a strong cash generator prospectively.

當然，如果稅法變化以不同的方式發揮作用，這種前景可能會變得更好，我們今年的資本支出應該有點高峰。因此，我非常有信心，我們將在未來繼續成為強大的現金產生者。

Now let's turn to Slide 11 for a preview of the first quarter. We're entering 1Q with a very strong backlog and a number of challenges persisting in this operating environment and some evolving economic and geopolitical uncertainties. We expect organic growth in the first quarter in the range of down 2% to up 1%, driven by the ongoing supply constraints; current COVID dynamics, which have dampened travel somewhat versus 4Q; and evolving geopolitical uncertainties. We'll continue to deploy pricing actions to combat rising costs, and we expect price increases to drive approximately 4% of sales growth in the quarter.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 11 來預覽第一季度。我們正在進入第一季度，積壓非常多，在這種經營環境中仍然存在許多挑戰，以及一些不斷變化的經濟和地緣政治不確定性。由於持續的供應限制，我們預計第一季度的有機增長將在下降 2% 至上升 1% 的範圍內；當前的 COVID 動態，與第四季度相比在一定程度上抑制了旅行；以及不斷變化的地緣政治不確定性。我們將繼續採取定價措施來應對不斷上漲的成本，我們預計價格上漲將推動本季度約 4% 的銷售增長。

This quarter will be our toughest comp for the year as the first quarter of 2021 was near the peak of our COVID-related mask demand. Excluding the 2 percentage point impact of lower masks, we would be -- we would expect organic growth in the range of flat to up 3%. We expect segment margins in the range of 20.6% to 21% in the first quarter, down 40 basis points to flat year-over-year. Excluding the impact of Quantinuum, we expect segment margins to be down 10 to up 30 basis points as our price/cost actions and cost management mostly offset the volume leverage challenges we're facing in the supply-constrained environment.

本季度將是我們今年最艱難的競爭，因為 2021 年第一季度接近我們與 COVID 相關的口罩需求的峰值。排除較低口罩帶來的 2 個百分點的影響，我們預計有機增長將在持平至 3% 的範圍內。我們預計第一季度的細分市場利潤率在 20.6% 至 21% 之間，同比下降 40 個基點至持平。排除 Quantinuum 的影響，我們預計分部利潤率將下降 10 至 30 個基點，因為我們的價格/成本行動和成本管理主要抵消了我們在供應受限環境中面臨的數量槓桿挑戰。

The net below-the-line impact is expected to be between $30 million to $75 million expense, with a range of repositioning between $120 million and $160 million in the quarter as we continue to provide capacity to fund ongoing restructuring. We expect the effective tax rate to be in the range of 22% and average share count to be approximately 697 million shares. As a result, we expect first quarter EPS between $1.80 and $1.90, down 6% to down 1% year-over-year.

隨著我們繼續提供資金支持正在進行的重組，預計淨線下影響將在 3,000 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元之間，本季度的重新定位範圍在 1.2 億美元至 1.6 億美元之間。我們預計有效稅率將在 22% 範圍內，平均股數約為 6.97 億股。因此，我們預計第一季度每股收益在 1.80 美元至 1.90 美元之間，同比下降 6% 至 1%。

And lastly, first quarter is historically our lowest from a cash perspective. And with the supply chain impacts that we have been facing, those will continue to drive higher inventory levels, dampening our cash generation in the short term.

最後，從現金的角度來看，第一季度是我們歷史上最低的。鑑於我們一直面臨的供應鏈影響，這些影響將繼續推高庫存水平，在短期內抑制我們的現金生成。

Now let's take a moment to walk through our expectations by segment. In Aero, we expect flight hours to remain relatively flat to the fourth quarter, though COVID may dampen it some. It will be up significantly year-over-year, leading to another quarter of strong growth in both Air Transport and Business & General Aviation.

現在讓我們花點時間逐段了解我們的期望。在 Aero 方面，我們預計到第四季度的飛行時間將保持相對平穩，儘管 COVID 可能會對其有所抑制。它將同比顯著增長，導致航空運輸和商務和通用航空的另一個季度強勁增長。

Air Transport original equipment should return to growth as build rates begin to improve. And in Defense & Space, International Defense will continue to grow and stable U.S. defense spending will lead to volumes that are relatively flat to the fourth quarter, though down slightly year-on-year.

隨著建造率開始提高，航空運輸原始設備應該會恢復增長。在國防與航天領域，國際國防將繼續增長，穩定的美國國防開支將導致與第四季度相比持平，但同比略有下降。

In Building Technologies, we expect business conditions to remain similar to fourth quarter with strong demand but continued supply constraints. Demand for our Healthy Building Solutions should remain strong as the world continues to combat COVID-19 and the Omicron variant. The business should see sequential and year-over-year growth as we execute on our robust backlog in Building Solutions and see continued demand for fire and security products.

在建築技術方面，我們預計業務狀況將與第四季度相似，需求強勁但供應持續受限。隨著世界繼續與 COVID-19 和 Omicron 變體作鬥爭，對我們健康建築解決方案的需求應該會保持強勁。隨著我們執行我們在建築解決方案方面的強大積壓並看到對消防和安全產品的持續需求，該業務應該會看到連續和同比增長。

In PMT, we expect continued year-over-year sales growth in the first quarter. Strong demand for Thermal Solutions will drive growth in Process Solutions, while the projects business begins to move past its pre-COVID decline comps. Increased catalyst shipments and process technologies licensing will support growth in UOP, though they'll be partially offset by lower equipment volumes due to project life-cycle timing.

在 PMT 方面，我們預計第一季度的銷售額將繼續同比增長。對熱解決方案的強勁需求將推動過程解決方案的增長，而項目業務開始超越其在 COVID 之前的下降組合。催化劑出貨量和工藝技術許可的增加將支持 UOP 的增長，但由於項目生命週期時間安排，設備數量減少將部分抵消它們。

Advanced Materials sales will continue to increase in the quarter due to sustained high demand across the product lines as well as pricing actions implemented to offset commodity inflation.

由於產品線的持續高需求以及為抵消商品通脹而採取的定價行動，本季度先進材料的銷售額將繼續增長。

Finally, in SPS, Q1 will be its most difficult quarter. We expect sales to be down year-over-year due to the 9 point impact of mask demand and Intelligrated sales that will be near the second half exit rate as opposed to the very strong start in Q1 of last year.

最後，在 SPS 中，Q1 將是其最困難的一個季度。我們預計銷售額將同比下降，原因是口罩需求的 9 個點影響以及 Intelligrated 的銷售額將接近下半年的退出率，而不是去年第一季度的強勁開局。

We'll see strong double-digit growth in the first quarter from Productivity Solutions and Services, Advanced Sensing Technologies and Gas Detection as they execute on the robust backlog. Productivity Solutions and Services has been a star in the portfolio, and we expect this business to continue to gain market share.

我們將在第一季度看到生產力解決方案和服務、先進傳感技術和氣體檢測的強勁兩位數增長，因為它們在強大的積壓下執行。生產力解決方案和服務一直是產品組合中的明星，我們預計該業務將繼續獲得市場份額。

So overall, the road ahead remains challenging, but we're confident in our ability to navigate through this operating environment in the first quarter, and we're extremely optimistic about our prospects for the future.

因此，總體而言，前進的道路仍然充滿挑戰，但我們對我們在第一季度度過這一運營環境的能力充滿信心，我們對未來的前景極為樂觀。

So with that, I'll turn the call back over to Darius.

因此，我將把電話轉回給大流士。

Thank you, Greg. Let's turn to Slide 12 and talk about our corporate governance at Honeywell.

謝謝你，格雷格。讓我們轉到幻燈片 12，談談我們在霍尼韋爾的公司治理。

Integrity and ethics, inclusion and diversity and workplace respect are foundational principles that are core to our strategy at Honeywell. Our focus on these principles is evident in our corporate governance efforts throughout the entire organization from top to bottom. We have a diverse and independent Board of Directors overseeing the business, and an executive team that is committed to fostering a culture built on these foundational principles.

誠信和道德、包容和多元化以及工作場所尊重是我們霍尼韋爾戰略的核心基本原則。我們對這些原則的關注體現在我們從上到下貫穿整個組織的公司治理工作中。我們有一個多元化和獨立的董事會來監督業務，以及一個致力於培養建立在這些基本原則之上的文化的執行團隊。

Through our annual training to all of our employees, we educate on our code of business conduct and promote honest business practices, compliance to all laws and regulations and respect in the workplace. We recently launched Honeywell Accelerator, a revitalized operating system that provides a centralized source of training programs designed to further develop our employees, enhance the way we manage, govern and operate the business. Accelerator allows us to educate and standardize around our best practices and will empower our employees with the knowledge and tools needed to perform their roles.

通過我們對所有員工的年度培訓，我們對我們的商業行為準則進行教育，並促進誠實的商業行為、遵守所有法律法規和尊重工作場所。我們最近推出了霍尼韋爾加速器，這是一個重新煥發活力的操作系統，提供集中的培訓計劃資源，旨在進一步發展我們的員工，改進我們管理、治理和運營業務的方式。加速器使我們能夠圍繞我們的最佳實踐進行教育和標準化，並將賦予我們的員工履行職責所需的知識和工具。

In January, we announced a new addition to our Board of Directors. Rose Lee was elected to join the Board as an Independent Director. Rose is currently President and Chief Executive Officer of Cornerstone Building Brands, a leading manufacturer of exterior building products in North America. Rose has a unique blend of leadership skills, deep knowledge of operations and technology and a passion for environmental, social and governance expertise. Prior to joining Cornerstone Building Brands, Rose served as President of the DuPont Water & Protection business, focusing on improving sustainability through the company's water, shelter and safety solutions. She's also spearheaded initiatives to advance minorities, women's and veterans. Rose's perspective will be a valuable addition to our Board as we further advance Honeywell's transformation.

一月份，我們宣布了董事會的新成員。 Rose Lee 被選為獨立董事加入董事會。 Rose 目前是北美領先的室外建築產品製造商 Cornerstone Building Brands 的總裁兼首席執行官。 Rose 擁有獨特的領導技能、對運營和技術的深入了解以及對環境、社會和治理專業知識的熱情。在加入 Cornerstone Building Brands 之前，Rose 擔任杜邦水與保護業務總裁，專注於通過公司的水、住房和安全解決方案提高可持續性。她還帶頭推動少數族裔、婦女和退伍軍人的發展。隨著我們進一步推進霍尼韋爾的轉型，羅斯的觀點將成為我們董事會的寶貴補充。

Now let's turn to Slide 13 for some closing thoughts before we move into Q&A. In the first year of recovery was not without its challenges. However, we effectively managed through these macroeconomic difficulties and over delivered our financial commitments. We didn't stay on the sidelines, but instead, we took action to grow the business, including increasing our capital deployment. Our balance sheet remains strong, and we'll continue to invest for the future of Honeywell. While several COVID-related headwinds will drag into early part of 2022, the macro setup is trending favorably for most of our end markets and we're optimistic about our future.

在進入問答環節之前，讓我們先看一下幻燈片 13 的一些總結性想法。在復甦的第一年並非沒有挑戰。然而，我們有效地度過了這些宏觀經濟困難，並超額兌現了我們的財務承諾。我們並沒有袖手旁觀，而是採取行動發展業務，包括增加資本配置。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們將繼續為霍尼韋爾的未來投資。雖然幾個與 COVID 相關的逆風將拖到 2022 年初，但宏觀設置對我們的大多數終端市場來說都是有利的，我們對我們的未來持樂觀態度。

Our recent innovations, including new safety and sustainability offerings, will drive long-term growth and allow us to meet some of the world's most pressing needs.

我們最近的創新，包括新的安全和可持續性產品，將推動長期增長，使我們能夠滿足世界上一些最緊迫的需求。

One last item before we move to Q&A. I'm pleased to announce that our 2022 Investor Day will be held on March 3 at our corporate headquarters in Charlotte. At this Investor Day, I, along with members of the senior management team, will discuss Honeywell's business strategy, exciting new growth opportunities and an updated long-term growth algorithm. We look forward to sharing more with you about Honeywell's future at that time.

在我們進行問答之前的最後一項。我很高興地宣布，我們的 2022 年投資者日將於 3 月 3 日在我們位於夏洛特的公司總部舉行。在這個投資者日，我將與高級管理團隊成員一起討論霍尼韋爾的業務戰略、令人興奮的新增長機會和更新的長期增長算法。屆時，我們期待與您分享更多關於霍尼韋爾未來的信息。

With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.

有了這個，肖恩，讓我們進入問答環節。

Thank you, Darius. Darius, Greg, Anne and Torsten are now available to answer your questions. (Operator Instructions) Ari, please open the line for Q&A.

謝謝你，大流士。 Darius、Greg、Anne 和 Torsten 現在可以回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）Ari，請打開問答線。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question from Scott Davis from Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們現在將向 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis 提出第一個問題。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes. Good morning, Scott.

是的。早上好，斯科特。

Yes. Good morning.

是的。早上好。

Guys, the guidance seems conservative, I guess. And when you back out price, 4% price, you're not expecting a whole lot of unit volume recovery. Is that because of the first half being so weak and you expect just a modest improvement in the second half? I mean, I guess just a little bit of color. I look at Slide 7, and it looks so bullish. And then you look at Slide 8 and you say, "Oh, it doesn't feel as bullish." Just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about the year playing out and how conservative the guide is.

伙計們，我猜，指導似乎很保守。當你退出價格，4% 的價格時，你並不期望大量的單位體積恢復。是因為上半場太弱了，而你預計下半場只會有適度的進步嗎？我的意思是，我猜只是一點點顏色。我看幻燈片 7，它看起來很樂觀。然後你看著幻燈片 8，你說，“哦，感覺不那麼樂觀。”只是想了解您對這一年的看法以及該指南的保守程度。

Yes. I mean, I think, first of all, a couple of comments on that. We do have to take, first of all, masks into account, which adds 1 point to the growth rate. So now we're at 5% to 8% because, I think, frankly, the masks are a bunch of noise into our numbers, at least for the first half.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，首先，對此有幾點意見。我們確實必須首先考慮口罩，這為增長率增加了 1 個百分點。所以現在我們的比例是 5% 到 8%，因為坦率地說，我認為口罩對我們的數字來說是一堆噪音，至少在上半年是這樣。

Second of all, the first half will be slow, which actually means that we've got to have substantial acceleration in the second half. And although we're bullish on improved supply chain flow, it is a bit of an unknown. And even with sort of the kind of a slow first half, that implies a pretty aggressive growth in the second half. And for us, 5% to 8% growth, which take 6.5%, 7% at the midpoint, I think it's a fairly reasonable guide to start the year, with a lot of uncertainty along the supply chain.

其次，上半場會很慢，這實際上意味著我們必須在下半場大幅加速。儘管我們看好供應鏈流程的改善，但這還是個未知數。即使上半年有點緩慢，這也意味著下半年會有相當積極的增長。對我們來說，5% 到 8% 的增長，中間值是 6.5% 和 7%，我認為這是一個相當合理的年初指導，供應鏈上有很多不確定性。

I am optimistic, and we have some very specific data points. For example, we have about just a shade over 90% of our semiconductor now confirmed for the year. The problem is that necessarily confirm when we want it, which will be in the first half. It's more certain for the second half. But you would have to be sort of betting on the future and sometimes the future is unpredictable until we see that.

我很樂觀，我們有一些非常具體的數據點。例如，我們今年確認的半導體大約只有 90% 以上。問題是必須在我們想要的時候確認，這將在上半年。下半場更加確定。但是你必須對未來進行某種賭注，有時在我們看到這一點之前，未來是不可預測的。

So we came out with guidance that I think is fair. I don't know if you want to call it aggressive or conservative, but it does assume a pretty good step up in the second half, probably not inconsistent with some of those peers. But what none of us know, and that includes Honeywell and others, is exactly what will happen in the second half. So we've built in a ramp, but we also feel like it's a ramp that can be met. So we'll -- and we'll adjust as we go through the year.

所以我們提出了我認為公平的指導。我不知道你是想稱其為激進還是保守，但它確實假設下半場有相當不錯的進步，可能與其中一些同行並無矛盾。但我們都不知道，包括霍尼韋爾和其他公司在內，這正是下半年會發生的事情。所以我們建了一個坡道，但我們也覺得這是一個可以滿足的坡道。所以我們會 - 我們會在這一年中進行調整。

Okay. That's fair. I'll stick to the one question. And good luck in '22.

好的。這還算公平。我會堅持一個問題。 22 年祝你好運。

Our next question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。

Just on the investment side, it looks to me like R&D growing 15%. You have this digital investment you're making. You talked about the CapEx and how, I think, you said that, that's kind of getting close to a peak. What is the kind of normal run rate of these investments now going forward? It seems like they grew meaningfully ahead of sales this year. Are these investments, they will continue to grow ahead of sales? Or will they be more kind of flat with sales or even flat on absolute basis? What's the outlook for those R&D and this digital spending?

僅在投資方面，在我看來研發增長了 15%。你有你正在做的這個數字投資。您談到了資本支出，以及我認為您所說的如何接近峰值。現在這些投資的正常運行率是多少？似乎它們在今年的銷售額之前顯著增長。難道這些投資，他們會在銷售額之前繼續增長嗎？還是他們的銷售額會更加持平，甚至在絕對基礎上持平？這些研發和數字支出的前景如何？

I mean, let me kind of split that up, Steve. The first one is, I think you know from a CapEx perspective, we think that this is a bit of a higher-than-normal year by, call it, $200 million to $300 million. So I think that that's probably a bit unusual.

我的意思是，讓我把它分開，史蒂夫。第一個是，我想你知道從資本支出的角度來看，我們認為這比正常年份略高，稱之為 2 億至 3 億美元。所以我認為這可能有點不尋常。

But look, I think there's a key point here that's missing. I think our investors should want us to spend money in CapEx and R&D. It is the highest IRR return we can have on anything we do. And with the pricing for M&A today, if you can get double-digit IRR returns on M&A, you're doing well.

但是看，我認為這裡缺少一個關鍵點。我認為我們的投資者應該希望我們在資本支出和研發上花錢。這是我們所做的任何事情所能獲得的最高內部收益率。以今天的併購定價，如果你能在併購中獲得兩位數的 IRR 回報，那你就做得很好。

So I think this is the point is that we have great projects, both CapEx and OpEx, which will generate tremendous return for investors, especially in Sustainability and Technology Solutions. I mean that business is poised to be multibillion dollars by the end of the century and -- or by the end of the decade. And I think some of the wins that you've seen here are proof points of that, and I see nothing but acceleration from this point forward. So I think that's the story on CapEx.

所以我認為關鍵是我們有很棒的項目，包括資本支出和運營支出，這將為投資者帶來巨大的回報，特別是在可持續發展和技術解決方案方面。我的意思是，到本世紀末，或者到本世紀末，業務將達到數十億美元。我認為你在這裡看到的一些勝利就是證明，從這一點開始，我只看到加速。所以我認為這就是資本支出的故事。

On OpEx, obviously, we have some items around Quantinuum. We're investing there. I mean we've got about almost a $200 million headwind just from OpEx investment in that business. But I mean, this is sort of another appealing thing to our investors. I mean, you can pick up the best quantum computing company in the world at an industrial multiple. Obviously, I think we're -- whether or not that stays within the portfolio, I think, is to be determined, but probably keeping it longer term in the portfolio is not the path we would go. So obviously, that will also create some headwinds.

顯然，在 OpEx 方面，我們有一些圍繞 Quantinuum 的項目。我們正在那裡投資。我的意思是，僅從該業務的運營支出投資中，我們就獲得了近 2 億美元的逆風。但我的意思是，這對我們的投資者來說是另一件吸引人的事情。我的意思是，你可以以工業倍數收購世界上最好的量子計算公司。顯然，我認為我們是 - 我認為是否保留在投資組合中還有待確定，但可能將其長期保留在投資組合中並不是我們要走的路。很明顯，這也會造成一些不利因素。

And then sort of R&D investment, other, I think that's a little bit to be determined. I mean, we are going to continue to invest in innovation. And as long as we have good projects, that investment is going to continue. We have some great investments in sustainability, aerospace, forage, we're going to continue to make them.

然後是研發投資，其他的，我認為這有點待確定。我的意思是，我們將繼續投資於創新。只要我們有好的項目，這種投資就會繼續。我們在可持續發展、航空航天、草料方面進行了一些重大投資，我們將繼續進行這些投資。

Right. So I guess what's kind of hard for us to see is that you're spending this money, but obviously, in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter, you're really not seeing it in sales. So will there be -- can you guys give us any color on how much sales? I guess we can do the math on the returns, but will this add a point or 2 to sales over the next couple of years per year? Like at some point, it has to show up in the top line to make it down to the bottom line. So I think that's what is a little bit juxtaposed.

對。所以我想我們很難看到你花了這筆錢，但很明顯，在第四季度和第一季度，你真的沒有在銷售中看到它。那麼會有 - 你們能給我們提供多少銷售額的任何顏色嗎？我想我們可以對回報進行數學計算，但這會在接下來的幾年裡每年增加一到兩點的銷售額嗎？就像在某些時候，它必須出現在頂線才能降到底線。所以我認為這有點並列。

Yes. Yes. No, I get that. I mean -- but I mean, there's no sort of instant gratification. I mean, as you know, quantum computing, we're projecting to do more than $20 million this year in revenue, could do more than that. But we're also saying it's going to do $1 billion by 2026. So that's sort of a pretty attractive $2 billion by 2026. So I'd argue that's a pretty attractive curve there.

是的。是的。不，我明白了。我的意思是——但我的意思是，沒有即時的滿足感。我的意思是，如你所知，量子計算，我們預計今年的收入將超過 2000 萬美元，可以做得更多。但我們也說它到 2026 年將達到 10 億美元。所以到 2026 年，這是一個非常有吸引力的 20 億美元。所以我認為這是一個非常有吸引力的曲線。

Sustainability Technology Solutions, think about it as a $700 million business within 3 years, to give you some very specifics. Now I'd still like view it as a couple of hundred million this year, but it's going to accelerate very, very quickly to give you some curves.

可持續性技術解決方案，將其視為 3 年內價值 7 億美元的業務，為您提供一些非常具體的信息。現在我仍然希望將其視為今年的幾億，但它會非常非常快地加速，給你一些曲線。

On the big scope of Honeywell, are they going to show up dramatically in Q1, Q2? Probably not. But as you look at '23, '24 and '25, we're very, very confident these things will show up, and we'll talk a little bit more about at the Investor Day. I think the Sustainability Technology Solutions business has been on fire. And with all the wins, and some of them we can't even talk about that we've had, particularly in our green fuels, gives us a lot of confidence to invest a lot more money into that business given the kind of demand we're seeing and interest in our technologies.

在霍尼韋爾的大範圍內，它們會在第一季度、第二季度顯著出現嗎？可能不是。但是當你看到 23 年、24 年和 25 年時，我們非常非常有信心這些事情會出現，我們將在投資者日討論更多。我認為可持續性技術解決方案業務一直很火。憑藉所有的勝利，其中一些我們甚至無法談論我們所擁有的，特別是在我們的綠色燃料方面，鑑於我們的需求，我們有很大的信心在該業務上投入更多資金'正在看到我們的技術並對此感興趣。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Julian.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Julian Mitchell。朱利安。

Maybe just a question around sort of cash generation and cash uses. So I just wondered what your perspective was on whether Honeywell can be a sort of 100% free cash flow conversion business in the medium term. Understood that maybe CapEx normalizes, but you've still got that pension income in the P&L aspect there.

也許只是關於現金產生和現金使用的問題。所以我只是想知道你對霍尼韋爾是否可以在中期成為一種 100% 自由現金流轉換業務的看法。了解可能資本支出正常化，但您仍然在損益方面獲得養老金收入。

And then the second part is on the cash uses. I think investors might say, look, you've got very high IRR investments being made. The share price isn't embedding the high IRR. Your balance sheet is unlevered. So why don't you do a big share buyback right now in advance of those high IRR projects becoming visible?

然後第二部分是關於現金使用的。我認為投資者可能會說，看，您進行了非常高的內部收益率投資。股價並未嵌入高內部收益率。你的資產負債表是無槓桿的。那麼，為什麼不在那些高 IRR 項目變得可見之前，立即進行大量股票回購呢？

Okay. So thank you, Julian. And when you look at our cash generation capability, I think you've seen over the last 4 years plus, we have dramatically improved that to be right around, if not, above 100% and 16% to 17% cash margin, which we think is actually a better measure.

好的。所以謝謝你，朱利安。當您查看我們的現金生成能力時，我認為您在過去 4 年多的時間裡已經看到，我們已經顯著提高了這一點，即使不是，超過 100% 和 16% 到 17% 的現金利潤率，我們認為實際上是一個更好的衡量標準。

With this investment that's going in now, obviously, that takes it down this year, which would compute into something probably in the high 80s, mid- to high 80s, and probably, again, 13% to 14%, so call it, mid teens on cash margin. But our forward look is very positive.

顯然，隨著現在正在進行的這項投資，它會在今年下降，這可能會計算到 80 年代高、80 年代中期到高，並且可能再次達到 13% 到 14%，所以稱之為中期十幾歲的現金保證金。但我們的前瞻性是非常積極的。

I mean as we've discussed, I mean, the CapEx comes and goes. We're usually right around $900 million plus/minus. So this year, maybe we're going to be $1.2 billion or so, $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion, but there are some specific reasons why that is, and that will probably work its way back down. And we'll continue to drive income growth, which is going to fuel our cash generation.

我的意思是，正如我們所討論的，我的意思是，資本支出來來去去。我們通常在 9 億美元左右。所以今年，也許我們會達到 12 億美元左右，11 億美元，12 億美元，但有一些具體的原因會導致這種情況發生，而且可能會繼續下降。我們將繼續推動收入增長，這將推動我們的現金產生。

So I feel very strongly about the strength of our cash flow. Will it be 100%? I don't know, but we feel like mid-teens cash margin for us is a very strong place and no reason to believe that we're not going to continue to be there.

因此，我對我們現金流的強度感到非常強烈。會是100%嗎？我不知道，但我們覺得十幾歲的現金利潤對我們來說是一個非常強大的地方，沒有理由相信我們不會繼續在那裡。

As far as the share buyback is concerned, we've got our powder dry. That is -- we've demonstrated, again, once again in the fourth quarter that we're willing to deploy our capital against that. We did almost $1 billion in 4Q. I think it was 800 -- high 800s. And if that opportunity really shows itself, we'll go back in and do so. So I think that's one of the things we'll always have right in our radar on our capital deployment toggle. So I don't know, Darius, if you want to say anything more about it.

就股票回購而言，我們的粉末已經乾涸。那就是 - 我們在第四季度再次證明我們願意為此部署我們的資本。我們在第四季度做了近 10 億美元。我認為是 800 - 高 800。如果這個機會真的出現了，我們會回去這樣做。所以我認為這是我們在資本部署切換時一直關注的事情之一。所以我不知道，Darius，如果你還想說什麼。

Yes. No, I think, Julian, as you saw in Q4, we were pretty active in the market, and we think that the shares are severely underpriced right now, and we acted, Q4. So we kind of did what we say.

是的。不，我認為，朱利安，正如你在第四季度所看到的，我們在市場上非常活躍，我們認為股票現在被嚴重低估了，我們在第四季度採取了行動。所以我們就按我們說的做了。

In terms of cash conversion, I'll be honest, I talked -- I hate that metric. It's not a good metric. Because if you do a bunch of really expensive M&A and you have an underfunded pension plan, you're going to look really good on that metric. And it's kind of a meaningless metric.

在現金轉換方面，老實說，我說過——我討厭這個指標。這不是一個好的指標。因為如果您進行大量非常昂貴的併購，並且您的養老金計劃資金不足，那麼您在該指標上的表現會非常好。這是一種毫無意義的指標。

I like cash as a percent of your revenue. I think that's a better metric. And I think we're going to be in the teens, some place in the teens. Some years, mid- to upper teens, some years lower. But one thing we're not going to do is not invest in the business when we have these kinds of growth opportunities. I think that -- I think it's a great sign that Honeywell has these kinds of growth opportunities that provide these kinds of returns.

我喜歡現金佔您收入的百分比。我認為這是一個更好的指標。而且我認為我們將處於青少年時期，在青少年的某個地方。有些年份，中上青少年，有些年份較低。但我們不會做的一件事是當我們擁有這些增長機會時不投資業務。我認為 - 我認為霍尼韋爾擁有提供這些回報的這些增長機會是一個很好的跡象。

And I wish that some of the revenue and returns would come sooner. I think we all wish that. But the fact is these are attractive returns. And whether it's Quantum or Sustainability Technology Solutions or others, you don't get this kind of margin performance year after year after year. And we're not exactly a low-margin company to begin with. I mean, we're in our low 20s. So we're kind of in top quartile of our peer group, and we have continued confidence in margin expansion. Reason is because we're investing in innovation, which is differentiated, where we can capture value, I think, we've proven.

我希望一些收入和回報能早點到來。我想我們都希望如此。但事實是這些都是有吸引力的回報。而且無論是Quantum 還是Sustainability Technology Solutions 或其他，您都不會年復一年地獲得這種利潤率表現。而且我們一開始並不是一家低利潤的公司。我的意思是，我們還不到 20 歲。因此，我們在同行中處於前四分之一，並且我們對利潤率擴張有持續的信心。原因是我們正在投資創新，這是差異化的，我們可以在其中獲取價值，我認為，我們已經證明了這一點。

Yes, I agree with that on the premise of the cash flow margin.

是的，在現金流邊際的前提下，我同意這一點。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Can you hear me okay?

你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Just want to go back to cash flow and the $0.5 billion impact from the tax changes, Greg.

格雷格，只想回到現金流和稅收變化帶來的 5 億美元影響。

Yes.

是的。

R&D, I think we all understand, but definitely a little bit heavier than what we were expecting. So maybe just break out, is it R&D plus other things? And if the -- if Congress solves this issue, does that toward that come back?

研發，我想我們都明白，但肯定比我們預期的要重一點。所以也許只是爆發，是研發加上其他東西嗎？如果 - 如果國會解決了這個問題，那會不會回來？

Yes.

是的。

Or is it other things?

或者是其他事情？

Yes, 100%. listen, we could have -- there are some of our peers who left out the detriment of the extenders not occurring, we did not do that because...

是的，100%。聽著，我們本可以——我們的一些同行忽略了擴展器沒有發生的損害，我們沒有這樣做是因為......

Yes. Most of our peers.

是的。我們的大多數同齡人。

Yes. I mean, I could tell you that it's going to be $400 million to $500 million more cash flow. And then if they don't do the needful, then we're going to come back to you in April and take our guidance down. So that was not a position we wanted to be in. We're being very transparent with what it is. We really hope that, that legislation gets extended. We feel very strongly that R&D tax credit is important. It's important for us to invest here in the U.S. in R&D, protect jobs, et cetera, and it's underpinning of a lot of our technology that we then export throughout the world. So we're very hopeful that, that changes. But in the meantime, as it stands right now, it doesn't. And come March, we may be having to make a payment. And so therefore, we put it in our guidance as such.

是的。我的意思是，我可以告訴你，這將增加 4 億到 5 億美元的現金流。然後，如果他們沒有做必要的事情，那麼我們將在 4 月與您聯繫並取消我們的指導。所以這不是我們想要的位置。我們對它的內容非常透明。我們真的希望，該立法得到擴展。我們強烈認為研發稅收抵免很重要。對我們來說，在美國投資研發、保護就業等非常重要，它是我們許多技術的基礎，然後我們將這些技術出口到世界各地。所以我們非常希望，這種情況會改變。但與此同時，就目前而言，事實並非如此。到了三月，我們可能不得不付款。因此，我們將其放在我們的指導中。

And the short story is -- Nigel, is that if it does get passed, expect $400 million roughly, plus or minus, increase to our cash outlook for the year.

簡短的故事是——奈傑爾，如果它確實獲得通過，預計我們今年的現金前景大約會增加 4 億美元，上下浮動。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

I just want to come back to the growth investments. And I guess sitting here, we could probably just impute that the growth, R&D and CapEx, is CapEx, $200 million or $300 million, right, and R&D, a couple of hundred million. But Darius, you've been talking about these initiatives for a while, some of the ones that you've laid out here. So maybe you could just actually scale for us what is truly growth CapEx and growth-oriented R&D? And have you found ways to kind of repurpose those traditional spending buckets?

我只想回到增長投資。我想坐在這裡，我們可能只是推測增長，研發和資本支出，是資本支出，2 億美元或 3 億美元，對，研發，幾億美元。但是大流士，你已經談論這些倡議有一段時間了，其中一些是你在這裡列出的。所以也許你可以為我們實際擴展什麼是真正的增長資本支出和以增長為導向的研發？您是否找到了重新利用這些傳統支出桶的方法？

I think you've talked about kind of lowering the asset intensity of the business and other things. So I think there's some movement inside that CapEx budget. But the nature of my question is really to try to get at -- and I think Steve alluded to it, kind of imputing the growth inherent in this IRR number that you're giving us, which kind of hinges on what the growth spending actually is.

我認為您已經談到降低業務的資產強度和其他事情。所以我認為資本支出預算中有一些變動。但我的問題的本質是真正試圖解決——我認為史蒂夫暗示了這一點，有點將你提供給我們的這個 IRR 數字中固有的增長推算出來，這取決於增長支出的實際情況是。

Yes. Well, I think sort of the increment for this year is pretty much all sort of growth-oriented spending. And there's a couple of other elements that are embedded. So some of the classical sort of CapEx spending is going.

是的。嗯，我認為今年的增長幾乎都是以增長為導向的支出。還有其他一些嵌入的元素。因此，一些經典的資本支出支出正在發生。

What it's getting replaced by is some of the spending that we're doing in things like automation. For example, our next phase of ISC transformation isn't so much a reduction in footprint and fixed costs and so on, but it's actually automation. So there's some CapEx that's embedded in there that doesn't necessarily help growth, but it helps margin expansion, efficiency and so on.

取而代之的是我們在自動化等方面所做的一些支出。例如，我們下一階段的 ISC 轉型與其說是減少佔地面積和固定成本等，但實際上是自動化。因此，其中嵌入了一些資本支出，不一定有助於增長，但有助於利潤率擴張、效率等。

So there are some puts and takes and -- but the incremental spend has really been on really growth programs. And let me just give you a couple of specific examples where we've actually spent in development. We don't probably talk about it often enough, but our Forge business, which we've been invested in pretty heavily, they're recurring, their SaaS growth, 39% last year. Their recurring revenue base, double digit last year. Overall software growth, double digit last year.

所以有一些投入和投入 - 但增量支出確實用於真正的增長計劃。讓我給你幾個具體的例子，我們實際花費在開發中。我們可能不會經常談論它，但我們已經投入大量資金的 Forge 業務，他們正在反復出現，他們的 SaaS 增長，去年增長了 39%。他們的經常性收入基礎，去年兩位數。整體軟件增長，去年兩位數。

Our Solstice business, which, as you may recall in the '15, '16, '17 time frame, we've invested a lot of capital into it. Now billion-dollar-plus kind of a business, and now we're investing even more because it's accretive to our margins. It's growing very, very quickly, and we're finding new applications. So I hope the investors trust us that we make these investments, they come to fruition, generate returns.

我們的 Solstice 業務，您可能還記得，在 15、16、17 年的時間框架內，我們已經投入了大量資金。現在是十億美元以上的業務，現在我們投資更多，因為它增加了我們的利潤。它的增長非常非常快，我們正在尋找新的應用程序。所以我希望投資者相信我們，我們進行了這些投資，它們取得了成果，產生了回報。

They're not instantaneous. We made Solstice investments 4, 5, 6 years ago, and now they're coming to fruition and they're flowering. Made the Forge investments 3, 4 years ago, that's grown. In 2, 3, 4 years, I'm very confident we're going to be talking to you about the kind of top line we're getting from Sustainability Technology Solutions or Quantum, whether it's part of Honeywell or not, but these are attractive things.

它們不是瞬時的。我們在 4、5、6 年前進行了 Solstice 投資，現在它們正在開花結果。 3、4 年前進行了 Forge 投資，現在已經增長了。在 2、3、4 年後，我非常有信心我們將與您討論我們從 Sustainability Technology Solutions 或 Quantum 獲得的最高收益，無論它是否屬於霍尼韋爾，但這些都是有吸引力的東西。

Just a quick follow-up, if I could. So much discussion on growth here today. Could you size maybe the growth headwind that you experienced in Q4 and/or the year on supply chain or other type issues?

如果可以的話，只是快速跟進。今天在這裡對增長進行瞭如此多的討論。您能否估算一下您在第四季度和/或當年在供應鍊或其他類型問題上遇到的增長逆風？

Yes. We talked about it in our last guide as $300 million to $500 million in the quarter in Q4 and having had experienced about $300 million in Q3. And that's kind of what it turned out to be. It was probably more towards the high end of the $500 million.

是的。我們在上一份指南中談到它在第四季度的季度為 3 億至 5 億美元，並且在第三季度經歷了大約 3 億美元。結果就是這樣。它可能更接近 5 億美元的高端。

And you see that in our past due backlog. It continues to be at an elevated level in 3 out of 4 businesses. And through the course of the year, that's probably $1 billion more than when we began.

你在我們過去到期的積壓中看到了這一點。在四分之三的企業中，它繼續處於較高水平。在這一年中，這可能比我們開始時多出 10 億美元。

So again, that's not a -- it's not one for one exactly the number, but that will give you a good marker for some of what was left on the table here in 2021, which, again, we have high confidence that carries forward. And as the supply base opens up on the semiconductor side, that should help free up the past due certainly a little bit in PMT, but mainly in the HBT and SPS business. And then we've talked a lot about supply chain, and we're starting to hear more of our aero and defense peers speaking about it as well. As that supply chain ramps up, that should provide a lot of tailwind for us as we go throughout the year.

再說一次，這不是一個數字——這不是一個對一的數字，但這將為您提供一個很好的標記，讓您了解 2021 年在桌面上剩下的一些內容，我們再次充滿信心地發揚光大。隨著半導體方面供應基地的開放，這應該有助於在 PMT 中釋放過去應有的一部分，但主要是在 HBT 和 SPS 業務中。然後我們就供應鏈談了很多，我們也開始聽到更多的航空和國防同行談論它。隨著供應鏈的增加，這應該為我們全年提供很多順風。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

So I want to ask about maybe Aero margins and SPS margins because I think that's the 2 deltas versus our model and your long-term targets. Especially on Aero margins, when we look at your margins, you did 27.7% in 2021, which is really good, and 28.2% if we exclude the Quantinuum loss. So how do we think about the drivers of that despite headwinds that you have in the business, but you're talking about margin expansion there for Aero, what's the reset higher? And then same for SPS, how do we think about a normalized margin rate there?

所以我想問一下 Aero 利潤率和 SPS 利潤率，因為我認為這是與我們的模型和您的長期目標相比的 2 個增量。特別是在 Aero 利潤率方面，當我們查看您的利潤率時，您在 2021 年的利潤率為 27.7%，這非常好，如果排除 Quantinuum 損失，您的利潤率為 28.2%。那麼，儘管您在業務中遇到逆風，但我們如何考慮其驅動因素，但您正在談論 Aero 的利潤率擴張，重置更高的是什麼？對於 SPS，我們如何看待那裡的標準化保證金率？

Yes. Let me start, and I'll turn it over to Greg. I think a couple of things. we are going to get much more OE growth in 2022 than we did in 2021. It was a favorable mix in '21. But nevertheless, we're going to still continue to see aftermarket growth. We're also investing in R&D. But given the volume leverage that we expect to see and still, I wouldn't say as favorable a mix is in '21, but still a good mix in '22. We expect to see some continued margin expansion in Aero despite further investments in R&D. That's the Aero outlook.

是的。讓我開始吧，我會把它交給格雷格。我認為有幾件事。我們將在 2022 年獲得比 2021 年更多的 OE 增長。這是 21 年的有利組合。但是，儘管如此，我們仍將繼續看到售後市場的增長。我們還投資於研發。但考慮到我們期望看到的數量槓桿，我不會說 21 年的組合是有利的，但在 22 年仍然是一個很好的組合。儘管對研發進行了進一步投資，但我們預計 Aero 的利潤率將繼續增長。這就是 Aero 的前景。

In terms of SPS, I think our big pressure was in the Intelligrated business because, as you know, that business grew over 50% last year, frankly. And I've said this from multiple calls, probably the worst here to pick that level of growth. So we have -- we will focus in Intelligrated in '22, not so much on growth, but there's more than enough that we could have if we wanted it. But we're going to focus on productivity and margin expansion because we really have to position that business much better for further growth, which we expect to see in '23 and '24. So that's really the business that really hurt our margins in SPS, especially in the second half of last year.

在 SPS 方面，我認為我們的巨大壓力來自 Intelligrated 業務，因為如您所知，坦率地說，該業務去年增長了 50% 以上。我已經從多次電話中說了這一點，這可能是選擇這種增長水平的最糟糕的情況。所以我們有——我們將在 22 年專注於 Intelligrated，而不是過多地關注增長，但如果我們想要的話，我們可以擁有的綽綽有餘。但我們將專注於生產力和利潤率擴張，因為我們確實必須更好地定位該業務以實現進一步增長，我們預計會在 23 年和 24 年看到這種情況。所以這確實是真正損害我們在 SPS 利潤率的業務，尤其是在去年下半年。

Yes, and you pick the bookends. I mean we expect the most margin expansion in SPS for those reasons. And I think Aero is going to be on the lower end for exactly what Darius described between the investments we're making in R&D as well as some of the mix pressures. We'll get a little bit of that 40, 50 basis points benefit from Quantinuum moving out, but it will be on the lower end of the scale in Aero. And that's actually -- that's not a bad thing. I mean, we grew Aero margins dramatically in 2021. So it's not like we're slowing down off of a slow pace. It was a huge contributor to our margin expansion in '21. So I think it's right that this is the way. We want to make sure that we're always investing in that business because it's got a very bright long-term future.

是的，你選擇書擋。我的意思是，出於這些原因，我們預計 SPS 的利潤增長幅度最大。而且我認為 Aero 將處於低端，這正是 Darius 所描述的我們在研發方面的投資以及一些混合壓力之間的情況。我們會從 Quantinuum 的退出中獲得 40、50 個基點的一點好處，但它在 Aero 的規模較低。這實際上 - 這不是一件壞事。我的意思是，我們在 2021 年大幅增加了 Aero 利潤率。所以這並不是說我們正在放緩步伐。這對我們在 21 年的利潤率擴張做出了巨大貢獻。所以我認為這是正確的方式。我們希望確保我們始終投資於該業務，因為它有一個非常光明的長期未來。

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。

So the question is just a follow-up on guidance. At the lower end, right, you're guiding to 4% top line growth with 4% pricing, sort of implies flat volumes. Could you just talk about the scenario? What would we view? What does the world look like in which this come true? And what does it imply for second quarter?

所以這個問題只是對指導的跟進。在較低端，正確的，您以 4% 的定價指導 4% 的收入增長，這在某種程度上意味著銷量持平。能簡單說說劇情嗎？我們會看到什麼？實現這一點的世界是什麼樣的？這對第二季度意味著什麼？

Yes. Well, I think, first of all, I'd say that you got to take the masks noise out of it. So even at the low end, we're growing the business because I think masks will still provide some noise, certainly in Q1, worth 2 points, and even some in Q2.

是的。嗯，我想，首先，我會說你必須消除面具噪音。所以即使在低端，我們也在發展業務，因為我認為口罩仍然會提供一些噪音，肯定在第一季度，價值 2 分，甚至在第二季度。

The scenario would be that there's no real improvement or deterioration in the supply chain situation. I mean that is the biggest still unknown. And although we're optimistic that the supply chain is getting better and we have better -- that we've sort of bottomed out. Until we really see that, it's hard to lock that into those numbers, and that's why we kind of have the bottom where we do. But that would be the biggest sort of variable that's an unknown is really the supply chain performance.

這種情況是供應鏈狀況沒有真正的改善或惡化。我的意思是這是最大的未知數。儘管我們樂觀地認為供應鏈正在變得更好並且我們已經變得更好——但我們已經觸底了。在我們真正看到這一點之前，很難將其鎖定在這些數字中，這就是為什麼我們在我們所做的事情中處於底部。但這將是最大的未知變量，實際上是供應鏈績效。

Got you. So not a specific segment, supply chain.

得到你。所以不是一個特定的部分，供應鏈。

No, the ones that where we're getting impacted the most, I think in PMT for the most part, the impact there has been very mild. I would say HBT has been impacted relatively heavily, particularly in Q4. And I would say, looking forward, that's probably the segment where we have the biggest impact. Aero also, and SPS actually is getting better. So that's sort of how I would weigh the 4 different segments.

不，我們受到影響最大的地方，我認為在 PMT 中，影響非常輕微。我會說 HBT 受到的影響相對較大，尤其是在第四季度。我想說，展望未來，這可能是我們影響最大的部分。 Aero 也是，而且 SPS 實際上正在變得更好。所以這就是我如何衡量 4 個不同的部分。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Deane Dray。

Just since it's been in the headlines over the past several weeks about the 5G rollout and issues with the risk of interference at airports, I'd be interested in your comments. Has this impacted at all orders in aerospace? Has it required any retesting? Any delays? Any commentary there would be helpful.

就在過去幾週關於 5G 推出和機場干擾風險問題的頭條新聞中，我很想听聽你的評論。這是否影響了航空航天領域的所有訂單？是否需要重新測試？有延誤嗎？那裡的任何評論都會有所幫助。

Yes, no. The short answer, Deane, it has not impacted orders. We're obviously working with both the OEs and the FAA to find a solution. And we're actively involved in those discussions. But in terms of orders and so on, no. And I mean, if anything, if there's a hardware and/or a software solution here, it probably will -- it probably improve our outlook for orders, not actually retrack from it, but we'd be very active in those discussions.

是的，沒有。簡而言之，迪恩，它沒有影響訂單。我們顯然正在與 OE 和 FAA 合作尋找解決方案。我們積極參與了這些討論。但就訂單等而言，沒有。我的意思是，如果有的話，如果這裡有硬件和/或軟件解決方案，它可能會 - 它可能會改善我們的訂單前景，而不是實際上重新跟踪它，但我們會非常積極地參與這些討論。

Is there a risk of interference? There's lots of debate there.

是否存在干擾風險？那裡有很多爭論。

Yes. I think I'm going to leave that answer to the experts. And I'm not an expert on this topic. So I think I'm going to defer that one.

是的。我想我會把這個答案留給專家。我不是這個話題的專家。所以我想我會推遲那個。

Our next question comes from John Walsh from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰沃爾什。

Wanted to just dig in a little bit to Slide 22, where you talk about the labor cost inefficiencies, the $30 million to $50 million. Would just love to know how you're actually calculating that. Is that absenteeism? Is it the impact of inefficiencies from doing changeovers? It would seem like we've heard that from many manufacturers, but I guess you're the first to size it and actually seemed a little bit low. So maybe there's some other things that's not being captured in that $30 million to $50 million you call out.

想深入了解一下幻燈片 22，在那裡您談論勞動力成本效率低下，從 3000 萬美元到 5000 萬美元。只是想知道您實際上是如何計算的。是曠工嗎？是轉換效率低下的影響嗎？似乎我們已經從許多製造商那裡聽說過，但我猜您是第一個確定尺寸的人，實際上看起來有點低。所以也許還有一些其他的東西沒有在你提出的 3000 萬到 5000 萬美元中被捕獲。

Yes. Yes. So think about that as -- again, that's specific to Intelligrated. It's specific to projects that we began in 2021 that are now going to carry over into 2022. And some of those costs are related to some of the demobilization and remobilization and the inefficiencies that come across.

是的。是的。因此，請再次將其視為 Intelligrated 特有的。它特定於我們在 2021 年開始的項目，這些項目現在將延續到 2022 年。其中一些成本與一些復員和再動員以及遇到的低效率有關。

So if you think about an installation project, materials come on site, people come on site and do their job in a certain defined time frame and a certain set of steps. And when that gets disrupted by material availability, you create havoc with supply of labor on time and so forth.

因此，如果您考慮一個安裝項目，材料會到現場，人們會到現場並在特定的時間框架和特定的步驟中完成他們的工作。當這被材料可用性打亂時，你就會對按時提供勞動力等造成嚴重破壞。

So these are very identifiable costs related to very specific projects. And we have changed our operating cadence with some of our customers to lengthen lead times and so forth to make sure that, that doesn't recur again in 2022. So this is really the carryover of completion of some of these larger jobs in '21.

因此，這些是與非常具體的項目相關的非常可識別的成本。我們已經改變了我們與一些客戶的運營節奏，以延長交貨時間等，以確保這種情況在 2022 年不會再次發生。所以這實際上是在 21 年完成其中一些大型工作的結轉.

Yes. And I think Greg said it right, which is when the supplies don't arrive on time, you cause inefficiency in the installation with them because there's -- people are essentially waiting on supplies. And that's kind of what we change going forward for '22 is we will really be staging the parts and the components needed for the warehouse before we actually apply the labor.

是的。而且我認為 Greg 說得對，即當供應未按時到達時，您會導致安裝效率低下，因為人們基本上在等待供應。這就是我們在 22 年未來所做的改變是，在我們實際應用勞動力之前，我們將真正準備倉庫所需的零件和組件。

So the way we're going to execute these jobs, because generally, in a normal-flowing supply chain environment, you kind of do that concurrently. But with the unpredictability in the supply chain, it's really not possible, not prudent to do it that way. So we're going to be doing much more staging before we actually apply labor to do the install, which will dramatically improve our operating efficiency.

所以我們將執行這些工作的方式，因為通常，在正常流動的供應鏈環境中，你會同時執行這些工作。但由於供應鏈的不可預測性，這樣做真的不可能，也不謹慎。因此，在我們真正投入人工進行安裝之前，我們將做更多的準備工作，這將大大提高我們的運營效率。

We'll take our last question from Andrew Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Andrew? Okay. We'll come back to Andrew. We'll take one more question from Markus Mittermaier from UBS.

最後一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andrew Kaplowitz。安德魯？好的。我們將回到安德魯。我們將再回答瑞銀的 Markus Mittermaier 的一個問題。

One on PMT, if I could. Obviously, Europe piece, still strong as per your comments. You had a comment in the press release this morning that there was delayed project recovery and softness in smart energy in the fourth quarter. How should I think about the '22 guide here mid-single digits to high single digits in the context of the automation business? What are the customer conversations here on budgets? And is there upside there if some of these project delays, maybe around the status you expect, how should we think about that?

如果可以的話，一個關於 PMT 的。顯然，根據您的評論，歐洲部分仍然很強大。您今天上午在新聞稿中評論說，第四季度智能能源項目恢復延遲和疲軟。在自動化業務的背景下，我應該如何看待 '22 指南中個位數到高個位數？客戶在預算方面的對話是什麼？如果這些項目中的一些延遲，可能是您期望的狀態，是否有好處，我們應該如何考慮？

Yes. No, we're very bullish on PMT this year. Just to give you a very specific -- some specific figures, our project business bookings were up double digit in Q4. So we actually see a substantial acceleration in our automation business, and that's reflected in the booking rates.

是的。不，我們今年非常看好 PMT。只是給你一個非常具體的 - 一些具體數字，我們的項目業務預訂在第四季度增長了兩位數。因此，我們實際上看到我們的自動化業務大幅加速，這反映在預訂率上。

PMT overall was up double digits in Q4 and the year. UOP business bookings were up over 20% in Q4. So really, really nice positioning for PMT. We're very bullish on PMT for '22 and '23. I mean the investment cycle is certainly returning, and we're seeing that in both our booking rates and the kind of performance we saw even in Q4, and we think that that's going to continue. So I think PMT is as well positioned as any business we see for '22.

PMT 整體在第四季度和當年增長了兩位數。 UOP 的業務預訂在第四季度增長了 20% 以上。因此，PMT 的定位非常非常好。我們非常看好 22 和 23 年的 PMT。我的意思是投資週期肯定會回歸，我們在預訂率和第四季度的表現中都看到了這一點，我們認為這種情況會繼續下去。因此，我認為 PMT 的定位與我們在 22 年看到的任何業務一樣好。

Thank you very much. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Darius Adamczyk for any additional closing remarks.

非常感謝你。今天的問答環節到此結束。在這個時候，我想把會議轉回給 Darius Adamczyk 做任何額外的閉幕詞。

I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered strong fourth quarter results and continued to navigate effectively through multiple uncertainties with the typical level of operational rigor you've come to expect from Honey. Our future is bright, and we look forward to discussing this further at our upcoming Investor Day. Thank you all for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.

我要感謝我們的股東一直以來的支持。我們交付了強勁的第四季度業績，並繼續以您對 Honey 所期望的典型運營嚴謹水平有效地應對多種不確定性。我們的未來是光明的，我們期待在即將到來的投資者日進一步討論這個問題。謝謝大家的收聽，請保持安全和健康。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect at this time. Have a wonderful day.

謝謝你。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。此時您可以斷開連接。有一個美好的一天。