Hci Group Inc (HCI) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to HCI Group's second quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Ali, and I will be your conference operator. (Operator Instructions) Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay through September 7, 2024, starting later today. This call is also being broadcast live via webcast and available via webcast replay until August 8, 2025, on the Investor Information section of HCI Group's website at www.hcigroup.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Matt Glover of Gateway Investor Relations. Matt, please proceed.

下午好，歡迎參加 HCI 集團 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫阿里，我將是您的會議操作員。（操作員說明）在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議正在錄製中，並且從今天晚些時候開始，可在 2024 年 9 月 7 日之前重播。本次電話會議也將透過網路直播進行現場直播，並可在 2025 年 8 月 8 日之前透過 HCI 集團網站 www.hcigroup.com 的投資者資訊部分進行網路直播重播。我現在想把電話轉給 Gateway 投資者關係部門的 Matt Glover 先生。馬特，請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to HCI Group's second quarter 2024 earnings call. On today's call are Karin Coleman, HCI's Chief Operating Officer; Mark Harmsworth, HCI's Chief Financial Officer; and Paresh Patel, HCI's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加 HCI 集團 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。出席今天電話會議的有 HCI 營運長 Karin Coleman； HCI 財務長 Mark Harmsworth；以及 HCI 董事長兼執行長 Paresh Patel。

Following Karin's operational update, Mark will review our financial performance for the second quarter of 2024, and then Paresh will provide a strategic update. To access today's webcast, please visit the Investor Information section of our corporate website at hcigroup.com.

在 Karin 更新營運情況後，Mark 將審查我們 2024 年第二季的財務業績，然後 Paresh 將提供策略更新。要觀看今天的網路廣播，請訪問我們公司網站 hcigroup.com 的投資者資訊部分。

Before we begin, I'd like to take the opportunity to remind our listeners that today's presentation and responses to questions may contain forward-looking statements made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在我們開始之前，我想藉此機會提醒我們的聽眾，今天的演示和對問題的回答可能包含根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》做出的前瞻性陳述。

Words such as anticipate, estimate, expect, intend, plan, and project, and other similar words and expressions are intended to signify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and conditions, but rather are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

預期、估計、期望、打算、計劃和項目等詞語以及其他類似的詞語和表達旨在表示前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述並不是對未來結果和條件的保證，而是受到各種風險和不確定性的影響。

Some of these risks and uncertainties are identified in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Should any risks or uncertainties develop into actual events, these developments could have material adverse effects on the company's business, financial conditions, and results of operations. HCI Group disclaims all the obligations to update any forward-looking statements. Now with that, I would like to turn the call over to Karin Coleman, Chief Operating Officer. Karin?

該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出了其中一些風險和不確定性。如果任何風險或不確定性發展為實際事件，這些發展可能會對公司的業務、財務狀況和經營業績產生重大不利影響。HCI 集團不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的所有義務。現在，我想將電話轉給營運長 Karin Coleman。卡琳？

Thank you, Matt, and welcome, everyone. Before getting into a few comments on the quarter, I wanted to quickly touch base on Hurricane Debby. Our sympathies go out to those impacted by Debby. Our team is actively assisting our policyholders during this difficult time. Our early view is that Debby is not expected to be a reinsurance event, and we expect its losses to be well within our statutory retention.

謝謝你，馬特，歡迎大家。在對本季度發表一些評論之前，我想快速了解一下颶風黛比。我們對那些受黛比影響的人表示同情。在這個困難時期，我們的團隊正在積極協助我們的保單持有人。我們的早期觀點是，黛比預計不會成為再保險事件，我們預計其損失將完全在我們的法定保留範圍內。

Now for the quarter update. In the second quarter, HCI Group reported pre-tax income of $76 million and earnings per share of $4.24. This was a tremendous outcome. Gross premiums earned increased almost 45% in the quarter to $264 million, with contributions from each of our insurance divisions. In-force premiums continue to be above $1 billion.

現在是季度更新。HCI集團第二季稅前收入為7,600萬美元，每股收益為4.24美元。這是一個巨大的成果。在我們每個保險部門的貢獻下，本季的總保費成長了近 45%，達到 2.64 億美元。有效保費繼續超過 10 億美元。

We reported another quarter of improvement in our underwriting results. Including weather losses in the quarter, our gross loss ratio was 29.7%. HCI continued to deliver on its commitment to shareholders, paying a dividend of $0.40 per share, our 55th consecutive quarterly dividend. We had several notable accomplishments in the quarter. First, Condo Owners Reciprocal Exchange, known as CORE, assumed additional policies from Citizens, and its total run rate premium is approximately $70 million.

我們的核保績效又取得了四分之一的改善。包括本季的天氣損失在內，我們的毛損率為 29.7%。HCI 繼續履行對股東的承諾，派發每股 0.40 美元的股息，這是我們連續第 55 個季度派息。我們在本季取得了幾項引人注目的成就。首先，Condo Owners Reciprocal Exchange（稱為 CORE）承擔了公民的額外保單，其總營運費率約為 7,000 萬美元。

Second, we completed our annual reinsurance program in the quarter, which included a structure similar to last year, and retention at both of our insurance carriers was largely unchanged. We were pleased with the outcome and we appreciate the continued support of our reinsurance partners. We believe reinsurers recognize the value of our technology and our claims organization.

其次，我們在本季度完成了年度再保險計劃，其中包括與去年類似的結構，並且我們兩家保險公司的保留率基本上沒有變化。我們對結果感到滿意，並感謝再保險合作夥伴的持續支持。我們相信再保險公司認識到我們的技術和理賠組織的價值。

With reinsurance now secure, we expect our total reinsurance spend across all reinsurance towers to be approximately $92 million per quarter. This includes the consolidation of CORE's reinsurance spend and minor risk transfer enhancements.

隨著再保險現已安全，我們預計所有再保險塔的再保險總支出約為每季 9,200 萬美元。這包括整合 CORE 的再保險支出和輕微的風險轉移增強。

I'd like to reaffirm a few statements I made last quarter related to the assumption of policies from Citizens. First, I mentioned that we were retaining more policies than we expected. As more policies come up for renewal and transition to our paper, this is still the case. The retention of policies continues to exceed our expectations.

我想重申我上個季度發表的一些與公民政策假設相關的聲明。首先，我提到我們保留的政策比我們預期的要多。隨著更多政策的更新和過渡到我們的論文，情況仍然如此。保單的保留繼續超出我們的預期。

Second, I mentioned that the loss ratio was coming in better than expected. As this book becomes more seasoned, this is still the case. The loss ratio on policies we assumed from Citizens is continuing better than expected. Given the proven success of our technology to select attractive policies from Citizens, we have applied to assume additional policies from Citizens.

其次，我提到損失率比預期好。隨著這本書變得更加成熟，情況仍然如此。我們假設公民保單的損失率繼續好於預期。鑑於我們的技術在從公民中選擇有吸引力的政策方面取得了成功，我們已申請從公民中獲取更多政策。

Homeowners Choice has been approved to assume up to 25,000 policies in October. TypTap has also been approved to assume 25,000 policies in October. And both companies have applied to participate in a November assumption as well.

Homeowners Choice 已獲批准在 10 月承保多達 25,000 份保單。TypTap 也被批准在 10 月承保 25,000 份保單。兩家公司也都申請參與 11 月的假設。

Additionally, CORE has been approved to assume policies from Citizens in October. We will update everyone on our plans closer to the assumption date. Overall, we posted another quarter of solid profitability, and we continue to make solid progress on our top line and bottom line. Now I'll turn it over to Mark to provide more details on our financial results.

此外，CORE 已於 10 月獲準承擔 Citizens 的政策。我們將在接近假設日期時向大家通報我們的計劃。總體而言，我們又一個季度實現了穩健的盈利，並且我們的營收和利潤繼續取得紮實進展。現在我將把它交給馬克，以提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Karin. As the numbers show, this was another solid quarter for the company. Pre-tax income was just over $76 million and diluted earnings per share were $4.24. These continued outstanding results are being driven by premium growth, higher investment income, a lower loss ratio, and lower expense ratios.

謝謝，卡琳。正如數據所示，這是該公司又一個穩健的季度。稅前收入略高於 7,600 萬美元，攤薄後每股收益為 4.24 美元。這些持續出色的業績是由保費成長、更高的投資收入、更低的損失率和更低的費用率所推動的。

Gross premiums earned of $264 million were 45% higher than the same quarter a year ago. The growth is being driven primarily by Florida, where the number of policies in-force is up 40% from the same quarter last year.

毛保費收入為 2.64 億美元，比去年同期成長 45%。這一增長主要由佛羅裡達州推動，該州有效的保單數量比去年同期增加了 40%。

Investment income of over $16 million is almost double what it was in the second quarter last year, driven by higher rates but also by higher invested balances. Consolidated cash and investments at the end of the quarter, up 45% higher than a year ago, driving investment income higher.

由於利率上升和投資餘額增加，投資收入超過 1,600 萬美元，幾乎是去年第二季的兩倍。本季末的綜合現金和投資比去年同期成長 45%，推動投資收益更高。

The consolidated gross loss ratio was 29.7% this quarter, down from 34% in the same quarter last year. We said some time ago that the loss ratio would come down to 30%, and we are there. For the first six months of this year, the consolidated loss ratio was 30.4%. While we had a little less weather than expected during the first half of the year, the lower loss ratio was driven by improvements in the frequency of all types of claims as well as much lower litigation propensity.

本季綜合毛損率為2​​9.7%，低於去年同期的34%。我們前段時間說過，損失率要降到30%，我們也做到了。今年前六個月，綜合虧損率為30.4%。雖然上半年的天氣狀況比預期的要少一些，但損失率較低是由於各類索賠頻率的改善以及訴訟傾向的大幅降低。

The combined ratio this quarter was just under 68%. This is a little lower because of the Citizens assumptions for which we had limited reinsurance and policy acquisition expenses for part of the quarter. If we normalize the numbers for that, the combined ratio this quarter would have been closer to 80%. This is a considerable decrease from our 90% combined ratio in the second quarter last year.

本季的綜合成本率略低於 68%。由於公民假設，我們在本季度部分時間的再保險和保單獲取費用有限，因此該數字略低。如果我們將數字標準化，本季的綜合成本率將接近 80%。這與去年第二季 90% 的綜合成本率相比大幅下降。

The reduction in the combined ratio was being driven by improving loss trends, rate actions taken last year, as well as operational leverage. As an indication of that leverage, labor and operating expenses as a percentage of gross premiums earned in the first six months of this year are 9.5%, down from 11% during the same period last year. Our technology is allowing us to grow without adding a lot of additional costs, and this is helping to drive profitability.

綜合成本率的下降是由虧損趨勢改善、去年採取的利率行動以及營運槓桿所推動的。作為槓桿率的指標，今年前六個月的勞動力和營運費用佔毛保費的百分比為 9.5%，低於去年同期的 11%。我們的技術使我們能夠在不增加大量額外成本的情況下實現成長，這有助於提高獲利能力。

Now a few comments on the balance sheet, which continues to improve. Over the last 12 months, consolidated cash and investments have increased by $390 million. Debt has dropped by $70 million. Shareholder equity has increased by $259 million. The debt-to-cap ratio has dropped from 62% to 34%. And book value per share has grown from $22 to $43. These improvements in the balance sheet have resulted from careful debt management, capital management, operational efficiency, profitability, and growing cash flow.

現在對持續改善的資產負債表進行一些評論。過去 12 個月，合併現金和投資增加了 3.9 億美元。債務減少了 7000 萬美元。股東權益增加了 2.59 億美元。債務上限比率從62%下降至34%。每股帳面價值從 22 美元成長到 43 美元。資產負債表的這些改善得益於謹慎的債務管理、資本管理、營運效率、獲利能力和不斷增長的現金流。

I should also quickly talk about capital. We've been able to maintain holding company liquidity at well over $200 million despite the significant debt reduction. In addition, surplus at the underwriter level continues to increase.

我也應該快速談談資本。儘管債務大幅減少，但我們仍能夠將控股公司的流動性維持在遠超過 2 億美元的水平。此外，承銷商層面的盈餘持續增加。

In summary, we're in a solid financial position, and it continues to improve. The combined ratio is down, debt is down, premium revenue is up, investment income is up, cash and investments are up, and capital continues to grow. And with that, I'll hand it over to Paresh.

總而言之，我們的財務狀況穩健，並且持續改善。綜合成本率下降，債務下降，保費收入上升，投資收益上升，現金和投資上升，資本持續增長。就這樣，我將把它交給帕雷什。

Thank you, Mark. Before going into my comments, I also want to offer my sympathies to those impacted by Hurricane Debby, and I wish everyone a speedy recovery. Now moving my thoughts back on HCI. The insurance industry has a universal measure of success, the combined ratio. And across the broader industry, we see that even incremental improvement in the combined ratio requires a lot of effort. And if you want to move the combined ratio down in a material way, it is very, very difficult.

謝謝你，馬克。在發表評論之前，我還想向受颶風黛比影響的人們表示同情，並祝福每個人早日康復。現在我的想法回到了人機互動上。保險業有一個通用的衡量成功的標準，即綜合比率。在更廣泛的行業中，我們發現即使是綜合成本率的逐步提高也需要付出大量努力。如果你想大幅降低綜合成本率，那是非常非常困難的。

But as was highlighted in Mark's comments, in a few quarters, we've been able to show a huge improvement in underwriting results. Why is that? It's because of our technology. Our technology has not only led to a better-than-average combined ratios in the tough times, but it has shown that it can significantly improve the combined ratios in good times.

但正如馬克評論中所強調的那樣，在幾個季度中，我們在承保業績方面取得了巨大的進步。這是為什麼？這是因為我們的技術。我們的技術不僅在困難時期實現了優於平均水平的綜合比率，而且還表明它可以在經濟繁榮時期顯著提高綜合比率。

We know we have the technology that works and that it can drive a better combined ratio. This is a huge accomplishment. And given our history, we ask ourselves, what else can we accomplish. With that, I will turn it over for questions. Operator, please provide the instructions.

我們知道我們擁有行之有效的技術，並且它可以帶來更好的綜合比率。這是一項巨大的成就。鑑於我們的歷史，我們問自己，我們還能完成什麼。說到這裡，我將把它轉過來供大家提問。操作員，請提供說明。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）邁克爾·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. I guess first question would be around kind of CAT loss potential. There's been a lot of concerns, I guess, that we're fielding in the past couple of weeks and certainly maybe in the past month. What if, given all the growth these guys have had like from Citizens, what if something big comes through? What would that look like? And I don't know if there's a way to quantify that at all.

謝謝。大家下午好。我想第一個問題是關於 CAT 損失的可能性。我猜想，我們在過去幾週甚至上個月的部署中存在著許多擔憂。考慮到這些人從《公民》中得到的成長，如果發生一些大事怎麼辦？那會是什麼樣子呢？我不知道是否有辦法量化這一點。

Maybe if you could, I don't know if you can do this, what if another Ian came through again, what would that look like in today's book? I think you had just under $1 billion gross and maybe $70 million or $65 million net. So is there a way to talk about that as kind of a similar path of what Ian would look like today? Thanks.

也許如果你可以的話，我不知道你是否可以做到這一點，如果另一個伊恩再次出現，那麼在今天的書中會是什麼樣子？我認為你們的總收入略低於 10 億美元，淨收入可能為 7000 萬美元或 6500 萬美元。那麼有沒有一種方法可以將其視為類似伊恩今天的樣子呢？謝謝。

Yeah, Michael, it's Mark. So first thing, if a storm like Ian comes through, there would be -- obviously, there would be a significant loss. We've got -- the way to think about it is there's the statutory retentions of Homeowners Choice and TypTap. Homeowners Choice is about $14 million, TypTap is about $9 million.

是的，邁克爾，是馬克。所以首先，如果像伊恩這樣的風暴來襲，顯然會造成重大損失。我們的思考方式是 Homeowners Choice 和 TypTap 的法定保留。Homeowners Choice 約 1,400 萬美元，TypTap 約 900 萬美元。

And then after that, it kind of depends a little bit on where the storm is, in which underwriter the insurance or the losses in because, as you know, we've utilized Claddagh in this year's reinsurance program. So depending on the size, depending on which underwriter is impacted because Claddagh is involved in the TypTap program, you could have a loss of $40 million to $45 million in TypTap if that layer was fully utilized and if that loss was a TypTap loss.

然後，這在一定程度上取決於風暴發生的地點、保險承保人或損失，因為如您所知，我們在今年的再保險計劃中利用了克拉達。因此，根據規模，以及因 Claddagh 參與 TypTap 計劃而受到影響的承銷商，如果該層得到充分利用，並且該損失是 TypTap 損失，那麼您可能會在 TypTap 上損失 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元。

And then beyond that, as you know, anything beyond that gets a little bit complicated, but we do have some -- based on multiyear reinsurance benefits, there is the potential for some unwinding of those reinsurance benefits. But again, that sort of depends on size and which underwriter is affected. But that should sort of give you an idea.

除此之外，如您所知，除此之外的任何事情都會變得有點複雜，但我們確實有一些——基於多年再保險福利，這些再保險福利有可能被解除。但同樣，這取決於規模以及受影響的承銷商。但這應該能給你一個想法。

And I guess -- sorry. I'm sorry, go ahead, Paresh.

我想——抱歉。抱歉，請繼續，帕雷什。

Michael, answering that from a different perspective because we understand, given forecast, everybody is concerned. Why don't we just look at Ian? Ian was what Ian was. We had a net loss, right? It's all there. It is painful, no question. But in terms of where Ian estimates and where we sit at this point, right, both insurers went through about 40% of the tower in Ian, which was a CAT 5, right.

麥可從不同的角度回答這個問題，因為我們知道，根據預測，每個人都很擔心。我們為什麼不只看伊恩呢？伊恩就是伊恩。我們有淨虧損，對嗎？一切都在那裡。這是痛苦的，毫無疑問。但就 Ian 估計的位置和我們目前所處的位置而言，兩家保險公司都檢查了 Ian 塔樓的約 40%，這是 CAT 5，對吧。

So should there be a weather event, we will have a certain amount of net retained losses. But after that, it is going to be covered by our reinsurance towers. And the key item, I think, that we sort of feel comfortable about with is that we have bought more than adequate reinsurance to pay the claims, and that's the whole purpose of it. And based on historical numbers, et cetera, that's what gives us comfort, yeah.

因此，如果出現天氣事件，我們將有一定的淨留存損失。但在那之後，它將由我們的再保險塔覆蓋。我認為，我們感到滿意的關鍵是我們購買了足夠的再保險來支付索賠，這就是它的全部目的。根據歷史數據等等，這就是給我們帶來安慰的原因，是的。

Yeah. Okay, sure. Thank you. That's helpful. I guess, I was going to say one of the big differences between now and then is pricing is up quite a bit since 2022. So that's good news as well. I guess, the next question would be on your -- the numbers Karin gave on the October, what you're assuming and that may be pointing towards 25,000, 25,000. Do you think the -- I guess, the acceptance rate for this time around, is there any reason to think it might be different than what it was last year? I think you were just under 60%. Should that be higher this year? Or any thoughts there?

是的。好吧，當然。謝謝。這很有幫助。我想，我想說的是，現在和那時之間的最大區別之一是，自 2022 年以來，價格上漲了很多。這也是個好消息。我想，下一個問題將是關於你的——卡琳在 10 月提供的數字，你的假設，這可能指向 25,000、25,000。你認為——我想，這次的錄取率，是否有任何理由認為它可能與去年不同？我認為你的成功率還不到 60%。今年應該會更高吧？或有什麼想法嗎？

Just general comments is I think the October takeout, there are 9, 10, 12 carriers, something like that and over 400,000 policies that have been at least requested by these carriers who have been approved or speaking to them, obviously. This is on the personal line side. On the commercial side, it's slightly different.

只是一般性評論是，我認為 10 月份的外賣，有 9、10、12 家運營商，類似的東西，以及超過 400,000 份保單，這些保單至少是這些運營商已經批准或與他們交談的。這是在個人線路方面。在商業方面，情況略有不同。

So to put this in perspective, what Homeowners Choice did in November take out last year, there were -- the OIR had approved just over 200,000 policies in the takeout. This one is over twice that size. So I think it's going to be a lot more competitive, but we anticipated that. The other side of that is we like our opportunities and take-up rates, et cetera.

因此，從長遠來看，去年 11 月 Homeowners Choice 所做的事情是——OIR 批准了超過 20 萬份保單。這個尺寸是它的兩倍以上。所以我認為競爭將會更加激烈，但我們已經預料到了這一點。另一方面是我們喜歡我們的機會和接受率等等。

So the other side, the other caveat that everybody is also aware of is all of this also depends on your first question, as to what happens over the summer in terms of weather events, yeah. So it's a lot of unforeseen, fuzzy numbers at the moment. We'll know in two to three months, yeah.

因此，另一方面，每個人都知道的另一個警告是，這一切也取決於你的第一個問題，即夏季天氣事件會發生什麼，是的。所以目前有很多不可預見的、模糊的數字。兩三個月後我們就會知道，是的。

Okay. Yeah. Thank you. And then last question for now, I guess, is your gross loss ratio, 30%. You mentioned some of the lower litigation in Florida again. And I think in the past, you've talked about maybe kind of a round number. It's down last quarter or the quarter before, you said around down about 35% or so. Is that still about the rate or has it gotten even better than that from what you said last time?

好的。是的。謝謝。我想現在的最後一個問題是你的總損失率，30%。您再次提到了佛羅裡達州的一些較低級訴訟。我想在過去，你可能談論過一個整數。上個季度或前一個季度有所下降，你說大約下降了 35% 左右。這仍然是關於利率嗎？

Yeah, it has. Claims, I think I talked about this before, but claims frequency is down like 25% to 30% and litigation frequency, so litigation based on any number of claims is 35% to 40% now. So it's, yeah, it's actually getting a little bit better.

是的，有。索賠，我想我之前談到過這一點，但是索賠頻率下降了 25% 到 30%，訴訟頻率也下降了，所以基於任何數量的索賠的訴訟現在是 35% 到 40%。所以，是的，它實際上正在好一點。

Matt Carletti, Citizens JMP.

Matt Carletti，公民 JMP。

Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. Karin, in your opening comments, you made some -- you referenced how a lot of the takeouts are retaining better when they come up for renewal. And I was hoping you could maybe expand on that a little bit and help us with maybe, as we think about kind of the takeouts that were done in the fall and kind of the weighting of how much of that might have been concentrated with Q2 renewal dates, how much of that as we look forward might be Q3 or Q4 renewal dates? Just to help us understand kind of the population of policies coming up for renewals as we think about them retaining a little better.

是的，謝謝。大家下午好。卡琳，在你的開場白中，你提到了很多外賣在更新時如何保留得更好。我希望你能稍微擴展一下這一點，也許可以幫助我們，因為我們正在考慮秋季完成的外賣以及其中多少可能集中在第二季度更新的權重日期，我們期待的其中有多少可能是第三季度或第第四季的續訂日期？只是為了幫助我們了解即將更新的保單數量，因為我們認為它們會保留得更好一些。

Sure. Well, I can tell you that when we were doing the forecasting, we were expecting about a 65% retention rate the first year of the policies coming over, and it's holding closer to 85%.

當然。嗯，我可以告訴你，當我們進行預測時，我們預計保單第一年的保留率約為 65%，而目前比例接近 85%。

And then as we think about Q2, 3Q, is there much difference in kind of the weighting of those renewal dates between the quarters or is it pretty similar?

然後，當我們考慮第二季、第三季時，各季度之間這些續訂日期的權重是否有很大差異，還是非常相似？

Hey Matt, I think -- I'm going to get into the technical nitty gritty, the policies we took over from Citizens last November, right, will all roll onto our paper in a time frame from, let's say, February 22 to November 21, 2024. That's roughly the time frame, and it's an even spread.

嘿，馬特，我想 - 我將深入探討技術細節，去年 11 月我們從公民手中接管的政策，對吧，將在 2 月 22 日至 11 月的時間範圍內全部滾入我們的報紙上2024年21 日。這就是大致的時間範圍，而且分佈均勻。

Whenever they roll over is, I think, what Karin is talking about, the 85% instead of the 65%. But until they roll over, they tend to be on our paper 90% of the time. That's just how that works because you assume the policy. So you got the economics. The big step is what happens when you offer a renewal, yeah. And so the fact we're doing 85% versus 65%, which also tells us that there isn't going to be much of an attrition whether 20 policies renew next week or 200 renew next week, yeah.

我想，每當他們翻身時，卡琳所說的就是 85%，而不是 65%。但在它們翻過來之前，90% 的時間它們往往都會出現在我們的紙上。這就是它的工作原理，因為你接受了該策略。所以你掌握了經濟學。是的，最重要的一步是當你提供續約時會發生什麼。事實上，我們所做的是 85% 與 65%，這也告訴我們，無論下週 20 份保單續保還是下週 200 份保單續保，都不會出現太大的損耗，是的。

Right, right. That's a great outcome. Then maybe, Paresh, my next question for you is my understanding is Citizens is pushing some rate increases, maybe a little bigger than they have in the past. And what does that -- how does that kind of fit into how you look at kind of takeout, the potential for success in takeouts? Does it change at all kind of the -- you referenced, I think, about 400,000 kind of greenlight policies in the past as you kind of viewed Citizens. Does it kind of change that population at all?

對，對。這是一個很棒的結果。那麼，帕雷什，我要問你的下一個問題是，據我了解，公民正在推動升息，幅度可能比過去更大一些。這意味著什麼——這與你對外送的看法、外送成功的潛力有何關係？我想，正如您對公民的看法一樣，您過去提到了大約 400,000 種綠燈政策。這會改變人口數嗎？

Or does it just -- does it make you think that you'll have a higher maybe attachment rate as you try for those takeouts because they're going to be getting -- the Citizens price is going to be going up over time, a little faster?

或者它只是 - 它是否讓你認為當你嘗試這些外賣時你會有更高的依戀率，因為他們會得到 - 公民價格會隨著時間的推移而上漲，a快一點？

Yeah. Matt, I would tell you that I think given our effectiveness in last year's takeout, I think this year's number would be very similar. That's on a level like-for-like basis, especially the rate increase. So against that, to the earlier questions and comments, 400,000 policies being tagged for October, that and of itself should tell you that things are getting more competitive, yes. And so yes, you have that offsetting numbers and reality will be what it will be, yeah.

是的。馬特，我想告訴你，考慮到我們去年外送的有效性，我認為今年的數字會非常相似。這是在同等級的基礎上，尤其是利率上漲。因此，相對於先前的問題和評論，10 月份有 400,000 份保單被標記，這本身就應該告訴您，事情正在變得更具競爭力，是的。所以是的，你有抵消的數字和現實將是，是的。

Okay. Perfect. And then my last one, just Mark, my quarterly numbers question, if you have net premiums written handy.

好的。完美的。然後是我的最後一個問題，馬克，我的季度數字問題，如果你手邊寫有淨保費。

Yeah, it's $230 million.

是的，是2.3億美元。

(Operator Instructions) Mark Hughes, Truist.

（操作員說明）馬克‧休斯，真理主義者。

Thinking about the impact of Debby, I think you've described it as being within the retention of something less than $14 million for HCI and $9 million for TypTap. Is that the right way to think about it?

考慮到 Debby 的影響，我認為您已經將其描述為 HCI 的保留金額不到 1400 萬美元，TypTap 的保留金額不到 900 萬美元。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

That's the retention rate. I can tell you that the claim volumes coming in as of late today is relatively low between the two carriers. We have less than 245 claims reported.

這就是保留率。我可以告訴您，截至今天晚些時候，兩家航空公司的索賠量相對較低。我們收到的索賠報告少於 245 起。

And is that to say, closer to zero than to the retention numbers? Is that one way to think about it?

這是否就是說，比保留數更接近零？這是一種思考方式嗎？

Well, it is still an ongoing event. So I think we have to consider that as well.

嗯，這仍然是一個正在進行的事件。所以我認為我們也必須考慮這一點。

But I mean, 250 claims, it's not a lot of claims. You've got to get to a lot more than 250 claims to get to $14 million plus $9 million, $23 million. So when we say within statutory retention, the storm is still ongoing. We have to be a little bit careful about what we say. But 250 claims is not a lot of claims.

但我的意思是，250 項索賠，這並不是很多索賠。您必須提出超過 250 項索賠才能獲得 1,400 萬美元加上 900 萬美元、2,300 萬美元。所以當我們說在法定保留範圍內時，風暴仍在繼續。我們必須對我們所說的話小心一點。但 250 次索賠並不是很多。

Yeah. Okay. And then any way to quantify how much benefit you got from more favorable weather this quarter? I think you said a little less than usual or maybe last year. But how much of a help was that?

是的。好的。那麼有什麼方法可以量化本季更有利的天氣為您帶來了多少好處呢？我認為你說的比平常少一點，或比去年少了一點。但這有多大幫助呢？

It's not really that much, Mark. I mean our expectation of Q2 was maybe a point or two higher, that's it. I mean it's not really a weather story. If you look at -- I think I said earlier, if you go back to the second quarter of 2022, claims frequency is down 30%.

其實沒那麼嚴重，馬克。我的意思是我們對第二季度的預期可能高了一兩點，就是這樣。我的意思是這並不是一個真正的天氣故事。如果你看一下——我想我之前說過，如果你回到 2022 年第二季度，索賠頻率會下降 30%。

If you divide that between weather and non-weather, and this won't be a perfect analysis, but weather is down 32% and non-weather is down 28% or something like that. So the improvement in the loss ratio, the improvement in frequency, it's not a weather story. It's all claims are down. When I said it's down, it was a little lower than we expected to be. It was a very slight difference.

如果將其分為天氣和非天氣，這將不是一個完美的分析，但天氣下降了 32%，非天氣下降了 28% 或類似的情況。因此，丟失率的改善、頻率的改善，這不是一個天氣故事。所有的索賠都下降了。當我說下降時，它比我們預期的要低一些。這是一個非常微小的差異。

So I mean, I think we had said when we originally talked about 30% loss ratio could be a little bit higher than that in a heavy weather quarter, a little bit lower than that in a light weather quarter, but 29.7% was -- it is what it is. Yeah, and weather is not really the story. Weather is not what's driving it down there.

所以我的意思是，我想我們在最初談到 30% 的損失率可能會比天氣惡劣的季度高一點，比天氣晴朗的季度低一點時說過，但 29.7% 是——就是這樣。是的，天氣並不是真正的故事。天氣並不是導致其下降的原因。

Yeah. Thanks for that clarification. How about your posture around voluntary policy growth? I don't think you do much in the storm season, but when we get into the fourth quarter, perhaps, how much appetite will you have? I guess, TypTap would be more to the point, but include the other subs, if you want, CORE or Homeowners Choice. But just how much of a voluntary growth are you interested in at this point?

是的。感謝您的澄清。您對自願政策成長的態度如何？我認為你在風暴季節不會做太多事情，但是當我們進入第四季度時，也許，你會有多少胃口？我想，TypTap 會更切題，但如果你願意，還可以包括其他低音炮，CORE 或 Homeowners Choice。但目前您對自願增長的興趣有多大？

Mark, it's Paresh. We are interested in growth and everything else, but you got to also keep in mind two mitigating factors. One is, given the size and scale that both of our carriers now operate at, incremental growth from voluntary writing is almost -- is there, but it sort of gets dwarfed by all the other things we're doing, right? If you did get the 25,000 policies, think of how much premium that is compared to writing 25,000 policies voluntarily one at a time, yeah.

馬克，我是帕雷什。我們對成長和其他一切都感興趣，但你還必須記住兩個緩解因素。一是，考慮到我們兩家運營商現在運營的規模和規模，自願寫作的增量增長幾乎是存在的，但與我們正在做的所有其他事情相比，它有點相形見絀，對吧？如果您確實獲得了 25,000 份保單，請想想與一次自願承保 25,000 份保單相比，保費是多少，是的。

Yeah.

是的。

That's why it becomes us saying that it's not the thing to focus on as such, yes. Doesn't mean it isn't going on at the same time, but it's not going to be the material item.

這就是為什麼我們會說這不是值得關注的事情，是的。並不意味著它不會同時發生，但它不會是物質項目。

And Paresh, you ended your commentary, I think, suggesting that there was more to be done. And I'm sort of curious if there's anything that you would care to share in terms of what you can do with the technology and capital that you can discuss now?

帕雷什，我認為您結束了您的評論，表明還有更多工作要做。我很好奇您是否願意分享一些關於您現在可以討論的技術和資本可以做什麼的事情？

Yeah. Look, here's what I'm trying to articulate, right. We are all part of the insurance industry and industry uses combined ratio as a benchmark. And listening to the efforts of every management team and everything else, everybody is trying to improve their combined ratios. And if you're going to improve it by a couple of points, it's a great -- it's a lot of effort and requires -- generates a sense of achievement. And that's one point.

是的。聽著，這就是我想表達的，對吧。我們都是保險業的一部分，行業使用綜合比率作為基準。聆聽每個管理團隊和其他一切的努力，每個人都在努力提高他們的綜合比率。如果你想把它提高幾個點，那就太好了——需要付出很多努力，需要付出很大的努力——會產生成就感。這就是一點。

The other point that's also there is, everybody is always selling every insurance management team, the benefits of technology. And if you have this technology and that technology and this and that, it will improve your results, right, let you grow faster and/or improve, more importantly, improve your combined ratio. So technology has long been touted, insurance companies long want this thing, right. And we see all of that. We get bombarded with the same stuff.

還有一點是，每個人都在向每個保險管理團隊推銷技術的好處。如果你擁有這項技術、這項技術以及這樣或那樣的技術，它會改善你的結果，對吧，讓你成長得更快和/或提高，更重要的是，提高你的綜合比率。所以技術早就被吹捧了，保險公司也早就想要這個東西了，對吧。我們看到了這一切。我們受到同樣的東西的轟炸。

The interesting thing what our technology has done is look at how much we moved our combined ratio in the space of a year. And this isn't because there was a hurricane last year and there was a hurricane this year. This is actual numbers. And some of these things and the growth and selecting risks from Citizens and doing it efficiently and all that. It's the difference between technology that promises to improve your combined ratio versus technology that has been proven to improve your combined ratio.

我們的技術所做的有趣的事情是看看我們在一年內改變了多少綜合比率。這並不是因為去年有颶風，今年也有颶風。這是實際數字。其中一些事情以及公民的成長和選擇風險，以及有效地做到這一點等等。這是承諾提高綜合比率的技術與已被證明可以提高綜合比率的技術之間的區別。

That's the something we find ourselves in, that we actually have technology that seems to work in the field. And if it does that, in this tough line of business that is homeowners insurance, especially in Florida, in a climate change environment, what happens if you apply this in a more benign line of business somewhere? What difference could we make there? That's -- I'm just asking the question, but it's worth exploring, and that's where the aspirations come to, yeah.

這就是我們發現自己所處的情況，我們實際上擁有似乎在該領域有效的技術。如果確實如此，在房屋保險這一艱難的業務領域，尤其是在佛羅裡達州，在氣候變遷的環境下，如果您將其應用到某個更良性的業務領域，會發生什麼？我們可以在那裡做出什麼改變？那是——我只是在問這個問題，但它值得探索，這就是願望的來源，是的。

Yeah. Okay. If I could ask one more, the gross earned in premium, you've been about $250 million the last couple of quarters. And you talked about $1 billion in policies in-force. Is that a pretty good run rate at this juncture, puts and takes, maybe some voluntary, more takeout that you've applied for later in the year, but is that a reasonable way to think about it, kind of the $250 million or so?

是的。好的。如果我再問一個問題，保費收入總額，過去幾季的收入約為 2.5 億美元。您談到了 10 億美元的有效保單。在這個關頭，看跌期權和看跌期權，也許是你在今年晚些時候申請的一些自願的、更多的外賣，這是一個相當不錯的運行率，但這是一個合理的思考方式，大約2.5 億美元左右？

Yeah. I mean, setting aside any takeouts that we might or might not do, if you look at the business where it is now, $250 million is a pretty good run rate.

是的。我的意思是，拋開我們可能會或可能不會做的任何外賣，如果你看看現在的業務，2.5 億美元是一個相當不錯的運行率。

(Operator Instructions) Okay, as we have no further questions at this time, this concludes our question-and-answer session. And I would now like to turn the call back over to Paresh Patel, who has a few closing remarks.

（操作員說明）好的，由於我們目前沒有其他問題，所以我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給帕雷什·帕特爾，他有幾句結束語。

On behalf of the entire management team, I would like to thank our shareholders, employees, agents, and most importantly, our policyholders for their continued support. And as I had said earlier in my comments, our thoughts and prayers with those that are affected by Hurricane Debby, and we stand ready to help in every way we can. Thank you, and talk to you next quarter.

我謹代表整個管理團隊感謝我們的股東、員工、代理人，最重要的是我們的保單持有人的持續支持。正如我之前在評論中所說，我們對那些受到黛比颶風影響的人們表示思念和祈禱，我們隨時準備盡我們所能提供幫助。謝謝，下個季度再聊。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，我們感謝您的參與。