Hci Group Inc (HCI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the HCI Group's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call. My name is John, and I will be your conference operator. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 HCI 集團 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫約翰，我將擔任您的會議操作員。（操作員說明）

Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay through April 6, 2024, starting later today. The call is also being broadcast live via webcast and available via webcast replay until March 7, 2025, on the Investor Information section of the HCI Group's website at www.hcigroup.com.

在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議正在錄製中，並且從今天晚些時候開始，可在 2024 年 4 月 6 日之前重播。此次電話會議也將透過網路直播進行現場直播，並在 2025 年 3 月 7 日之前透過 HCI 集團網站 www.hcigroup.com 的投資者資訊部分進行網路直播重播。

I would now like to turn the call over to Matt Glover, Gateway Investor Relations. Matt, please proceed.

我現在想把電話轉給 Gateway 投資者關係部門的 Matt Glover。馬特，請繼續。

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝約翰，大家下午好。

Welcome to HCI Group's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call. On today's call is Karin Coleman, HCI's Chief Operating Officer; Mark Harmsworth, HCI's Chief Financial Officer; and Paresh Patel, HCI's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

歡迎參加 HCI 集團 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。HCI 營運長 Karin Coleman 出席了今天的電話會議； HCI 財務長 Mark Harmsworth；以及 HCI 董事長兼執行長 Paresh Patel。

Following Karin's operational update, Mark will review our financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2023, and then Paresh will provide a strategic update. To access today's webcast, please visit the Investor Information section of our corporate website at www.hcigroup.com.

在 Karin 更新營運情況後，Mark 將審查我們 2023 年第四季的財務業績，然後 Paresh 將提供策略更新。要觀看今天的網路廣播，請訪問我們公司網站 www.hcigroup.com 的投資者資訊部分。

Before we begin, I'd like to take the opportunity to remind our listeners that today's presentation and responses to questions may contain forward-looking statements made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as anticipate, estimate, expect, intend, plan and project and other similar words and expressions are intended to signify forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想藉此機會提醒我們的聽眾，今天的演示和對問題的回答可能包含根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》做出的前瞻性陳述。預期、估計、期望、打算、計劃和項目等詞語以及其他類似的詞語和表達旨在表示前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and conditions, but rather are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Some of these risks and uncertainties are identified in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Should any risks or uncertainties develop into actual events, these developments could have material adverse effects on the company's business, financial conditions and results of operations. HCI Group disclaims all obligations to update any forward-looking statements.

前瞻性陳述並不是對未來結果和條件的保證，而是受到各種風險和不確定性的影響。該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中指出了其中一些風險和不確定性。如果任何風險或不確定性發展為實際事件，這些發展可能對公司的業務、財務狀況和經營業績產生重大不利影響。HCI 集團不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Now with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Karin Coleman, Chief Operating Officer. Karin?

現在，我想將電話轉給營運長 Karin Coleman。卡琳？

Thank you, Matt, and welcome, everyone. HCI Group wrapped up 2023 by reporting another excellent quarter with pretax income of $54.2 million and diluted earnings per share of $3.40. In-force premiums increased 30% in the quarter to approximately $1 billion.

謝謝你，馬特，歡迎大家。HCI Group 報告了另一個出色的季度，稅前收入為 5,420 萬美元，攤薄後每股收益為 3.40 美元，為 2023 年畫上了圓滿的句號。本季有效保費成長了 30%，達到約 10 億美元。

Similar to prior quarters, each of our business segments had a positive contribution to our results. At our insurance divisions, Homeowners Choice generated another quarter of consistent earnings and TypTap Insurance Group reported its fourth straight quarter of GAAP profitability.

與前幾季類似，我們的每個業務部門都對我們的業績做出了積極貢獻。在我們的保險部門，Homeowners Choice 又實現了一個季度的穩定盈利，TypTap Insurance Group 報告了連續第四個季度的 GAAP 盈利能力。

HCI continued to deliver on its commitment to shareholders paying a dividend of $0.40 per share, our 53rd consecutive quarterly dividend.

HCI 繼續履行其對股東支付每股 0.40 美元股息的承諾，這是我們連續第 53 個季度股息。

On our last earnings call in November, we discussed several initiatives underway. They included both of our existing carriers were in the process of assuming policies from Citizens. We said we expected those to total between $150 million to $250 million of in-force premium. I'm pleased to announce we completed three depopulations from Citizens totaling $273 million of in-force premium.

在 11 月的最後一次財報電話會議上，我們討論了正在進行的幾項措施。其中包括我們現有的兩家承運商，它們正在接受公民的政策。我們表示，預計有效保費總額將介於 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元之間。我很高興地宣布，我們完成了三項公民剔除工作，總計 2.73 億美元的有效保費。

We also spoke about plans to form a new reciprocal carrier to be named Condo Owners Reciprocal Exchange or CORE for short, with the intention of it writing commercial, residential insurance in Florida. In five months, CORE went from being a concept to now being a fully licensed carrier with the Demotech ratings, has fully placed its reinsurance and last week, completed its first Citizens assumption of $38 million of in-force premium. This is in addition to the $273 million I just mentioned.

我們還談到了組建一家新互惠保險公司的計劃，該保險公司名為 Condo Owners Reciprocal Exchange 或簡稱 CORE，其目的是在佛羅裡達州承保商業、住宅保險。在五個月的時間裡，CORE 從一個概念發展成為一家擁有 Demotech 評級的完全授權承運人，並已完全進行再保險，並於上週完成了其第一個公民承擔的 3800 萬美元有效保費。這還不包括我剛才提到的 2.73 億美元。

CORE also has been approved for an April assumption and has applied for a June assumption as well. I look forward to providing updates on these in the future.

CORE 也已批准 4 月的假設，並已申請 6 月的假設。我期待著將來提供有關這些的更新。

In addition to these significant accomplishments, we took an opportunity to retire the Centerbridge preferred shares in TypTap a year ahead of schedule. We also successfully raised $85 million through a common stock offering.

除了這些重大成就之外，我們還藉此機會提前一年註銷了 TypTap 的 Centerbridge 優先股。我們也透過普通股發行成功籌集了 8,500 萬美元。

To summarize, in a few short months, we were able to add a significant amount of premium, improve our gross loss ratio, launch a new carrier and simplify our balance sheet.

總而言之，在短短幾個月內，我們能夠增加大量保費，提高毛損率，推出新的承運商並簡化我們的資產負債表。

Now I'll turn it over to Mark to provide more details on our financial results.

現在我將把它交給馬克，以提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks. So as Karin mentioned, this was another really good quarter for the company. Pre-tax income was over $54 million for the quarter and $117 million for the year. Diluted earnings per share were $3.40 for the quarter and $7.62 for the year. These results reflect the continuing positive direction we've been discussing for a while now, growing premiums, higher investment income, better loss trends, and expense management.

謝謝。正如卡琳所提到的，這對公司來說是另一個非常好的季度。該季度稅前收入超過 5,400 萬美元，全年稅前收入超過 1.17 億美元。該季度攤薄後每股收益為 3.40 美元，全年攤薄後每股收益為 7.62 美元。這些結果反映了我們一段時間以來一直在討論的持續積極方向，即不斷增長的保費、更高的投資收益、更好的損失趨勢和費用管理。

Gross premiums earned were 18% higher than the same quarter last year, driven by higher average premium per policy and enhanced by the takeouts we've done with Citizens. While the full impact of these takeouts is not yet reflected in earned premium, they did add $23 million of earned premium in the quarter.

所賺取的毛保費比去年同期高出 18%，這得益於每份保單平均保費的提高以及我們與公民保險的外賣服務的推動。雖然這些外賣的全部影響尚未反映在已賺取保費中，但本季確實增加了 2,300 萬美元的已賺取保費。

Investment income was about 50% higher than in the fourth quarter than the same quarter last year. When interest rates were low, we held on to our cash. And now, we are seeing the benefits of careful duration management. Cash and fixed-term investments now total $1 billion, and we have positioned the portfolio to generate impressive yields with minimum capital risk.

第四季投資收益較去年同期成長約50%。當利率較低時，我們保留現金。現在，我們看到了仔細的期限管理的好處。目前現金和定期投資總額為 10 億美元，我們已將投資組合定位為以最小的資本風險產生可觀的收益。

Another positive trend you can see in our results is the continued improvement in the gross loss ratio, which was 30.4% in the fourth quarter, down from 39.4% in the same quarter last year. When the Florida legislative changes were announced, we said we expected the consolidated gross loss ratios to drop from 40% to 30%, and that's exactly what's happened. We got here through careful underwriting and rate actions, along with lower claims and litigation frequency.

從我們的業績中可以看到的另一個正面趨勢是毛損失率持續改善，第四季毛損失率為 30.4%，低於去年同期的 39.4%。當佛羅裡達州立法變更宣佈時，我們表示預計綜合總損失率將從 40% 降至 30%，而事實確實如此。我們透過謹慎的承保和利率行動以及較低的索賠和訴訟頻率取得了今天的成就。

We're not getting to these lower loss ratios by reducing reserves. In fact, net reserves at the end of 2023 are higher than at the end of 2022. If you looked at the balance sheet, you might notice that total reserves are lower than a year ago, but those are gross reserves. They're down for two reasons. First, because of the payments made on storms like Ian and Irma; and second, because we have significantly reduced the ultimate expected loss for Hurricane Ian.

我們並不是透過減少準備金來降低損失率的。事實上，2023年底的淨儲備高於2022年底。如果您查看資產負債表，您可能會注意到總準備金低於一年前，但這些是總準備金。他們的下滑有兩個原因。首先，因為伊恩和艾爾瑪等風暴的付款；其次，因為我們顯著降低了颶風伊恩的最終預期損失。

Originally back in September of 2022, we set the ultimate expected loss for Ian based on the models at $960 million. At the end of 2022, we lowered that to $845 million. And at the end of 2023, we lowered it again down to $740 million. While we have lowered the ultimate by more than $200 million to date, we are still at the top of the actuaries' range for this storm.

早在 2022 年 9 月，我們就根據模型將 Ian 的最終預期損失定為 9.6 億美元。2022 年底，我們將其降低至 8.45 億美元。2023 年底，我們再次將其下調至 7.4 億美元。儘管迄今為止我們已將最終金額下調了 2 億多美元，但我們仍處於精算師針對這場風暴的預期範圍的頂部。

The last trend I wanted to mention relates to expenses. If you look at the combination of labor, policy acquisition, and operating expenses, they're flat quarter over quarter and as a percentage of premiums, they're down as we continue to manage expenses. The company is growing, but our expenses are not. Along with the declining loss ratios, expense management is driving significant improvement in the combined ratio, which was 85% for the full year.

我想提的最後一個趨勢與費用有關。如果你看看勞動力、保單取得和營運費用的組合，它們與上季持平，並且隨著我們繼續管理費用，它們佔保費的百分比有所下降。公司在發展，但我們的開支卻沒有。隨著損失率的下降，費用管理正在推動綜合成本率的顯著改善，全年綜合成本率為 85%。

Now that I've talked about improvements to the income statement, I should also talk about improvements to the balance sheet and liquidity, driven by profitability, debt management, and capital management. As you know, we raised $85 million of new equity during the fourth quarter, issuing 1,150,000 new shares.

既然我已經討論了損益表的改進，那麼我還應該討論由獲利能力、債務管理和資本管理驅動的資產負債表和流動性的改進。如您所知，我們在第四季度籌集了 8,500 萬美元的新股本，發行了 1,150,000 股新股。

We also expanded the capacity of our credit facility with Fifth Third Bank from $50 million to $75 million during the quarter. As of December 31, 2023, we had just over $215 million of cash and financial investments at the holding company level, and when combined with the credit facility, about $290 million of total holding company liquidity. This is about $100 million higher than it was a year ago.

本季我們也將與 Fifth Third Bank 的信貸額度從 5,000 萬美元擴大到 7,500 萬美元。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，我們在控股公司層級擁有略高於 2.15 億美元的現金和金融投資，加上信貸額度，控股公司流動資金總額約為 2.9 億美元。這比一年前增加了約 1 億美元。

As Karin mentioned, there are a couple of other capital transactions that have happened since the year end. First, we redeemed the preferred shares owned by Centerbridge. And second, we began the process of converting the balance of our 4.25% convertible notes into common to be completed by the end of the first quarter.

正如卡琳所提到的，自年底以來還發生了幾筆其他資本交易。首先，我們贖回了Centerbridge擁有的優先股。其次，我們開始將 4.25% 可轉換票據的餘額轉換為普通票據，預計在第一季末完成。

A couple of other numbers to mention. Book value per share continues to grow. During 2023, book value per share increased from $18.91 to $33.36. Our debt-to-capital ratio has also improved considerably. At the end of 2022, it was just over 65%. And at the end of 2023, it was down to 48%. With the transactions happening in the first quarter of 2024, this should reduce further. By the end of the first quarter of 2024, we expect the debt-to-cap ratio to be under 40%.

還有一些其他數字需要提及。每股帳面價值持續成長。2023 年，每股帳面價值從 18.91 美元增至 33.36 美元。我們的債務與資本比率也大幅改善。2022年底，這一比例剛超過65%。到 2023 年底，這一比例下降至 48%。隨著交易發生在 2024 年第一季度，這一數字應該會進一步減少。到2024年第一季末，我們預計債務上限比率將低於40%。

To summarize, the fourth quarter was a great ending to a really strong year. Revenue is growing, expenses are not. The balance sheet is improving and so is our holding company liquidity. We've positioned ourselves well, and we look forward to the coming year.

總而言之，第四季為強勁的一年畫上了圓滿的句點。收入在成長，但支出卻沒有。資產負債表正在改善，我們控股公司的流動性也正在改善。我們已經做好了自己的定位，並期待著來年。

With that, I'll hand it over to Paresh.

這樣，我就把它交給帕雷什了。

Thank you, Mark. Sometimes the numbers just speak for themselves. Karin talked about the multiple operational achievements over the last five months. Mark provided an update on the financial impact of these achievements, both to the income statement as well as to the balance sheet. Each of these items completed successfully is great just by itself.

謝謝你，馬克。有時數字本身就能說明問題。卡琳談到了過去五個月來的多項營運成就。馬克提供了這些成就對損益表和資產負債表的財務影響的最新資訊。成功完成這些項目中的每一項本身就很棒。

The fact that we managed to do all of them at the same time is really something. This is possible because of our people and the technology that we have developed. The net result of this is that we crossed the $1 billion of in-force premium, which is a major milestone and with record earnings.

事實上，我們能夠同時完成所有這些工作，這確實是一件了不起的事。這之所以成為可能，是因為我們的員工和我們開發的技術。最終結果是我們的有效保費突破了 10 億美元，這是一個重要的里程碑，並且盈利創歷史新高。

Stepping back from the numbers for a moment. Our actions have impacted not only our shareholders but our policyholders as well. We now provide coverage to the most policyholders in our history. The steps we took helped to improve market conditions and reduce insurance anxiety in Florida. Through our depopulation efforts as well as forming new carriers, we have helped the situation.

暫時從數字上退一步。我們的行為不僅影響了我們的股東，也影響了我們的保單持有人。我們現在為歷史上大多數保單持有人提供保險。我們採取的措施有助於改善佛羅裡達州的市場狀況並減少保險焦慮。透過我們的減少人口和組成新航母的努力，我們對這種情況有所幫助。

Citizens is still too large with over 1.1 million policies but it is smaller today than at any time in 2023. We look forward to help shrink it further. And the events of the last five months were only possible when prudent preparation and planning meet the right opportunity and if you know how to execute successfully. That is exactly what we have done.

Citizens 的保單規模仍然太大，有超過 110 萬份保單，但目前的規模比 2023 年的任何時候都要小。我們期待著幫助進一步縮小規模。只有當審慎的準備和計劃遇到正確的機會並且知道如何成功執行時，過去五個月的事件才有可能發生。這正是我們所做的。

In closing, while Q4 2023 was our best quarter so far, it is only our best quarter so far. With that, we will open for questions. Opeartor, please provide instructions.

最後，雖然 2023 年第四季是我們迄今為止最好的季度，但這只是我們迄今為止最好的季度。接下來，我們將開放提問。請操作員提供指示。

(Operator Instructions) Matt Carletti, Citizens' JMP.

（操作員說明）Matt Carletti，公民 JMP。

Thanks. Good afternoon. Paresh, your last comment there, you gave us a little peek into your continued appetite for business and to grow in Florida. Can you give us a broader picture of kind of what the competitive landscape looks like and maybe how that might have changed, if at all, over the past three, six months?

謝謝。午安.帕雷什（Paresh），您最後的評論讓我們了解了您對佛羅裡達州業務和發展的持續興趣。您能否向我們提供更廣泛的信息，了解競爭格局的情況，以及在過去三到六個月中，競爭格局可能會發生怎樣的變化（如果有的話）？

Sure, Matt. So what's happened is we started carrier last year. We've done depopulations. We had -- we were very successful at it in the sense of when we made offer, 70 -- over 70% of the people accepted the offer. So all of this was very successful. And we watched the competitive landscape as a whole and we noticed that there are a lot more depopulations occurring now. I think there are depopulations happening all throughout the year all the way to June at the moment.

當然，馬特。所以我們去年就開始營運營運商了。我們已經完成了人口減少。當我們提出要約時，我們非常成功，超過 70% 的人接受了這個要約。所以這一切都是非常成功的。我們觀察了整個競爭格局，發現現在出現了更多的人口減少。我認為，從目前到六月，全年都會發生人口減少的情況。

So all of these are very positive things. There are other carriers who have stepping up to depopulate for the first time ever. So these are all positive signs, building on the things that Mark talked about last year, that litigation reform that we have will have an effect. We're seeing everybody else vote with us that, that is occurring.

所以所有這些都是非常積極的事情。還有其他航空公司首次採取行動減少人口數量。因此，這些都是正面的跡象，基於馬克去年談到的事情，我們的訴訟改革將會產生效果。我們看到其他人都與我們一起投票，這種情況正在發生。

Having said all of that, I also want to make sure that we understand where we sit. Citizens, which had swelled to those expectations, they would swell to almost 2 billion -- 2 million policies by the end of 2023, has started to shrink. It is now about the same size as it was at the end of 2022. So the depopulation effects -- impacts are having an effect on the size of Citizens.

說了這麼多，我還想確保我們了解我們的立場。公民人數已經達到了這些預期，到 2023 年底將增加到近 20 億人——200 萬份保單，但現在已經開始萎縮。現在的規模與 2022 年底的規模大致相同。因此，人口減少效應正在影響公民的規模。

It's still very big, 1.1 million. So there's plenty of opportunity, but these are the first signs of a healthy market returning to Florida. And we're glad we participated in it, yeah.

還是很大，110萬。因此，機會很多，但這是健康市場回歸佛羅裡達的第一個跡象。我們很高興參與其中，是的。

Great. Can you give us any more color on -- I mean, Karin, you commented on CORE, the $34 million in-force assumptions last week and mentioned April approved, I think filing for May. Can you give us any indication of kind of potential size of those assumptions?

偉大的。您能給我們更多資訊嗎？ 。您能否告訴我們這些假設的潛在規模？

Matt, let me take that one as well. When we started CORE and given this capital funding, et cetera, we are trying -- our initial objective was to grow it to about $75 million of in-force premium. So $38 million is a very good step towards that. The April and June depopulations will sort of top us up to the number that we want to see. And we've already bought reinsurance for all of that. So CORE is up and running and healthy, yeah.

馬特，讓我也拿那個吧。當我們啟動 CORE 並給予這筆資本融資等時，我們正在嘗試 - 我們最初的目標是將其增加到約 7500 萬美元的有效保費。因此，3800 萬美元是朝著這個目標邁出的非常好的一步。四月和六月的人口減少將使我們達到我們希望看到的數量。我們已經為這一切購買了再保險。所以 CORE 已經啟動並運行並且健康，是的。

Great. And then just a couple of numbers questions, probably for Mark, but for anybody. TypTap surplus at year end as well as what was gross written premium for TypTap for the year.

偉大的。然後只是幾個數字問題，可能是針對馬克，但針對任何人。TypTap 年末盈餘以及當年 TypTap 的毛承保保費是多少。

So surplus for TypTap is $92.5 million. And what was the other question, Matt?

因此 TypTap 的盈餘為 9,250 萬美元。另一個問題是什麼，馬特？

Gross written premiums at TypTap for FY23.

TypTap 2023 財政年度的總承保保費。

For the full year. Hang on a second. TypTap was full year, $363 million.

全年。稍等一下。TypTap 全年營收 3.63 億美元。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. I guess maybe just a high-level question, Paresh, for your gross loss ratio, which I mean you guys talked, you expect it to be around 30% given what's happening in Florida. But why target for such a low ratio that's clearly lightyears ahead of anybody else in the state or anybody else in the country. Are you -- do you feel like you leave money on the table for growth if you are shooting for such a low loss ratio? And it's probably even some conservatism in that, I assume, given what you're doing with your reserves.

謝謝。大家下午好。我想這可能只是一個高級問題，帕雷什，關於你的總損失率，我的意思是你們談論過，考慮到佛羅裡達州正在發生的情況，你預計它會在 30% 左右。但為什麼要設定如此低的比率，這顯然比該州或全國其他任何人都領先數光年。如果你追求如此低的損失率，你是否覺得你把錢留在了成長的桌子上？考慮到你對儲備的做法，我認為這甚至可能是某種保守主義。

Good question. I think the gross loss ratio, and just for the sake of -- so everybody follows along, we define that as our total losses that -- net losses divided by gross earned premium. It's that low partly because -- some of it is because of Florida.

好問題。我認為總損失率，只是為了 - 所以每個人都遵循，我們將其定義為我們的總損失 - 淨損失除以毛收入保費。這麼低的部分原因是——部分原因是佛羅裡達州。

But the reason we also do that is it's just how well our technology works. We charge a market competitive premium. It's just that our technology is so great -- sorry, I'm bragging about it at this point, that it picks the right policies, and we've curated a set of policy orders now who they file a claim when they have to, but they don't file a claim when they don't have to and it creates a better stable outcome. It's just been one of those things.

但我們也這樣做的原因是我們的技術運作得有多好。我們收取具有市場競爭力的溢價。只是我們的技術太棒了——抱歉，我在這一點上吹噓它，它選擇了正確的保單，我們現在已經策劃了一套保單訂單，他們可以在必要時提出索賠，但在不必要的情況下他們不會提出索賠，這會產生更好的穩定結果。這只是其中之一。

The other side of this also is a moment in time because when Mark, a year ago, was talking about the loss ratio going from 40% to 30%, it seemed like a very big lift that, that would occur. And here we are, done and dusted. So that's the item of where we sit. It's something we aspire to. And once in a while, we achieve it, which is a great thing.

另一方面，這也是一個及時的時刻，因為一年前，當馬克談論損失率從 40% 上升到 30% 時，這似乎會發生一個非常大的提升。我們到了，完成並除塵。這就是我們坐的地方。這是我們渴望的事。偶爾，我們會實現它，這是一件偉大的事。

So is it harder to get those policies that you talked about that has such great loss ratios? Is it harder to get that same kind of client base the more you expand that technology outside of Florida?

那麼你所說的賠付率這麼高的保單是不是比較難拿到呢？將技術擴展到佛羅裡達州以外的地區越多，獲得同樣類型的客戶群就越困難嗎？

Actually, let me try to see if I can explain in a slightly different way. And we actually talked about this about what's going on inside Citizens. So Citizens has 1.1 million policies in it. And when you look at those policies, you just see 1.1 million policies. What our technology allows us to do is very quickly look at all of those homes, and we think of them as red houses and green houses. We've talked about this before.

實際上，讓我嘗試看看是否可以用稍微不同的方式來解釋。我們實際上討論了公民內部正在發生的事情。因此，Citizens 中有 110 萬份保單。當您查看這些保單時，您只會看到 110 萬份保單。我們的技術使我們能夠快速查看所有這些房屋，我們將它們視為紅色房屋和綠色房屋。我們之前已經討論過這個問題。

Green houses are ones that if you take at current prices and have -- keep them for, let's say, 100 years, it will be a profitable outcome. Red houses are ones that won't be profitable. And it could be a combination of things. Reinsurance cost is too high, or losses will be too high, or premium is too low. Any number of reasons. The computers decide what's green and what's red.

溫室是指如果你以目前的價格購買並保留它們，比方說，100 年，這將是一個有利可圖的結果。紅房子是不會獲利的房子。這可能是多種因素的結合。再保險成本太高，或損失太大，或保費太低。任何數量的原因。計算機決定什麼是綠色，什麼是紅色。

But if you can separate them out, you can, out of the same book, separate into red house and green houses and have a much better outcome than the pool you're selecting from. And things that we can see is we can see that in Citizens, there's still probably about 400,000 green homes, but we can tell them apart from the 700,000 red homes that are in there. A lot of other people can't, and that's what gives you that item.

但如果你能將它們分開，你就可以在同一本書中將它們分成紅房子和綠房子，並且得到比你選擇的池子更好的結果。我們可以看到，在《公民》中，可能仍然有大約 40 萬個綠色房屋，但我們可以將它們與其中的 70 萬個紅色房屋區分開來。很多其他人做不到，而這就是給你這個物品的原因。

We are not getting these numbers because we charge more or less, we're charging a very market competitive rate. It is just better policy selection. And we have an advantage because we can tell a red from green as opposed to, let's just say, somebody who's colorblind.

我們沒有得到這些數字是因為我們收取的費用或多或少，我們收取的費率非常具有市場競爭力。這只是更好的政策選擇。我們有一個優勢，因為我們可以區分紅色和綠色，而不是色盲。

Okay. Thank you for that analogy. I guess sort of related, what can you say about the margins of the books that you're getting from Citizens? I know there's a couple of anomalies like for now, reinsurance costs and commissions. But on the normal run rate, how does that profitability of the margin in that book look compared to your normal book? And I guess part of the reason why I asked is because what you just talked about is presumably, you're not using your technology for those new policies that you're getting from Citizens, but you will eventually, maybe, when you renew. So is there a different margin profile in that book compared to your normal underlying book?

好的。謝謝你的比喻。我想有點相關，您對從《公民》獲得的書籍的頁邊空白有什麼看法？我知道有一些異常情況，例如現在的再保險成本和佣金。但在正常運作率下，該帳簿的利潤率與您的正常帳簿相比如何？我想我問這個問題的部分原因是因為你剛才談到的大概是，你沒有將你的技術用於你從公民那裡獲得的新政策，但你最終可能會在更新時使用你的技術。那麼，與您正常的基礎帳簿相比，該帳簿的保證金狀況是否有所不同？

Okay. Actually, our technology runs through the entire Citizens book and decides what's red and green. So the policies we took over, we already had pretty much processed in terms of what we expect. So that's the value and the ease with which we can do this. So that is all technology and it's great.

好的。事實上，我們的技術貫穿整本公民手冊，並決定什麼是紅色和綠色。因此，我們接管的政策已經按照我們的預期進行了相當多的處理。這就是我們做到這一點的價值和便利性。這就是所有技術，這很棒。

Now there is Mark's side of the house, which is finance, et cetera, where we take a more conservative view. So until we have that book on, that we take over that book and we study it and we let it age out for about six months to a year, finance takes a much more conservative view, and they will reserve to a much higher loss ratio than would otherwise necessarily be indicated, which is exactly as it should be because that's being conservative.

現在是馬克的一側，即金融等領域，我們在這方面採取更保守的觀點。因此，直到我們有了那本書，我們接管那本書並研究它，讓它老化大約六個月到一年，財務部門才會採取更加保守的觀點，他們將保留更高的損失率比本來必須指出的，這正是應該的，因為這是保守的。

And eventually, when the book has enough history on our paper, the loss ratio will be adjusted on that book. But going in, that assumed -- those assumed Citizens policies carry a higher loss ratio than our existing TypTap and Homeowners Choice book. Does that help?

最終，當這本書在我們的紙上有足夠的歷史記錄時，該書的損失率將被調整。但實際上，那些假設的公民保單的損失率比我們現有的 TypTap 和房主選擇書更高。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yeah, it does. Yeah. Thanks you. Last one, kind of a numbers question, but it sort of relates to a ripple effect of a question. In the gross written premium number that you gave us the $320 million you split between TypTap and Homeowners Choice, I think there's some accounting of the depopulation in that. And I don't know if you can just line that out for us. The reason I ask is -- what's the underlying growth of the two businesses without that number in it?

是的，確實如此。是的。感謝您。最後一個是一個數字問題，但它有點與問題的連鎖反應有關。在您向我們提供的 TypTap 和 Homeowners Choice 之間分配的 3.2 億美元總保費中，我認為其中有一些人口減少的因素。我不知道你能否幫我們列出來。我問的原因是──如果沒有這個數字，這兩家公司的潛在成長是多少？

Yeah, good question. So -- it's Mark. If you look at the consolidated number, so I think we put in the press release the consolid for Q4, it doesn't affect any other quarters, obviously. Of that $320.5 million that you see in Q4, $143 million of that is from the Citizens depop.

是的，好問題。所以——這是馬克。如果你看合併數據，那麼我認為我們在新聞稿中公佈了第四季度的合併數據，顯然它不會影響任何其他季度。在第四季的 3.205 億美元中，其中 1.43 億美元來自 Citizens depop。

And then if you want to further break, I think in your question, you said, how does it break down by underwriter? If you look at Homeowners Choice, of the $182 million in Q4, $120 -- wait. Sorry, I don't -- I apologize, I don't have that in front of me. But $143 million of the $320 million is the consolidated number. I thought I had it my underwriter number right here in front of me, but I don't.

然後如果你想進一步打破，我想在你的問題中，你說，它是如何被承保人打破的？如果你看看《Homeowners Choice》，在第四季的 1.82 億美元中，有 120 美元——等等。抱歉，我沒有──我很抱歉，我面前沒有這個。但 3.2 億美元中的 1.43 億美元是合併數字。我以為我的承保號碼就在我面前，但我沒有。

And Michael, a new thing is presumably asking this to update your model, et cetera. You should be aware that our two underwriters don't like renewal policies evenly throughout the year. TypTap is very heavily skewed in Q4 and early Q1. And it has a very high GWP rates in Q4. Homeowners Choice on the other hand tends to do most of its renewals in April through August time frame. So it creates a different dynamic from a gross written premium perspective. Obviously, on our own premium, it just evens out.

邁克爾，一個新事物可能要求它更新你的模型，等等。您應該知道，我們的兩位核保人不喜歡全年均勻的續保保單。TypTap 在第四季和第一季初期的情況非常嚴重。第四季的全球升溫潛勢值非常高。另一方面，Homeowners Choice 往往會在 4 月到 8 月的時間範圍內進行大部分續約。因此，從總承保保費的角度來看，它創造了一種不同的動態。顯然，就我們自己的溢價而言，它只是平衡的。

And Michael, it's Mark again. Of that $143 million in Q4 and the consolidated total, $19 million of that is TypTap. So of that $19 million -- of that $143 million, $19 million -- there's $20 million is TypTap and $123 million in Homeowners Choice.

邁克爾，又是馬克。在第四季的 1.43 億美元和合併總額中，TypTap 貢獻了 1,900 萬美元。因此，在這 1,900 萬美元中，即 1.43 億美元、1,900 萬美元中，有 2,000 萬美元屬於 TypTap，1.23 億美元屬於 Homeowners Choice。

(Operator Instructions) Mark Hughes, Truist.

（操作員說明）Mark Hughes，Truist。

Yeah, thank you. Good afternoon. The loss ratio, you got to 30%. Do you think this is -- have you made all the progress? Does this fully reflect the reform and the results of your underwriting? Or is this a stop along the way?

是的，謝謝。午安.損失率達30%。你認為這是——你已經取得了所有進展嗎？這是否充分反映了改革和承保的成果？還是這是途中的一站？

I think -- Mark, it's Mark. I think 30% is a pretty good estimate of where we are right now. So if you're trying to project out to 2023 -- or 2024, sorry, I think 30% is about where the book is at. Again, that's consolidated. We can't control the weather, of course. We have certain quarters where it can be -- we tend to get a little bit more weather in Q1 and Q2. So there's a chance it could be a little bit higher in those two quarters.

我想——馬克，是馬克。我認為 30% 是我們目前狀況的一個很好的估計。因此，如果你試圖預測到 2023 年或 2024 年，抱歉，我認為 30% 是關於這本書的內容。再次，這是合併的。當然，我們無法控制天氣。我們在某些​​季度可能會出現這樣的情況——我們傾向於在第一季和第二季獲得更多的天氣。因此，這兩個季度的價格可能會稍高一些。

But 30% is about, I think, where we're at. And it's -- as I said it in my prepared remarks, but the impact of the legislation has been pretty much what we expected it to be. We expected claims frequency to drop significantly because a significant percentage of claims were AOB claims. We expected it to drop and it did. We expected the incidence of litigation to drop, and it did, and it dropped, both dropped very, very close to what we had expected them to.

但我認為 30% 是我們目前所處的位置。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，該立法的影響幾乎達到了我們的預期。我們預計索賠頻率將大幅下降，因為很大一部分索賠是 AOB 索賠。我們預計它會下降，結果確實如此。我們預期訴訟的發生率會下降，事實確實如此，而且下降了，兩者都下降得非常非常接近我們的預期。

But we're only 1 year or 1.5 years into it. So we're still watching it closely, and there is a certain amount of prudence in those numbers, of course, as we watch this develop. But we thought we'd get to 30%, and I think the 30% is about where we're at.

但我們只花了 1 年或 1.5 年。因此，我們仍在密切關注，當然，當我們觀察事態發展時，這些數字有一定程度的謹慎。但我們認為我們會達到 30%，而且我認為 30% 是我們現在的水平。

Would you say the improvement in the Ian losses? Is that AOB and litigated plans as well? Or is that just -- well, obviously, it's more information that's driving it. But do you think it's the same factors that are working through those storm claims?

你認為伊恩損失有改善嗎？這也是 AOB 和訴訟計劃嗎？或者這只是——嗯，顯然，是更多的資訊在推動它。但您認為這些風暴索賠中的因素是相同的嗎？

Yeah. Yeah. So Mark, don't forget, Ian was after the first round of reform but before the second round of reforms. But the bigger thing, I think, what's driving the numbers there is a totally different set of things. Mark's initial number, I think $960 million he said, was entirely driven from the models. RMS, AIR, all the models to estimate the losses right after the storm makes landfall. That's what drove that number.

是的。是的。所以馬克，別忘了，伊恩是在第一輪改革之後，第二輪改革之前。但我認為，更重要的是，推動數位成長的因素是完全不同的。馬克最初的數字，我認為他所說的 9.6 億美元，完全是由模型驅動的。RMS、AIR，所有模型都可以在風暴登陸後立即估算損失。這就是推動這個數字的原因。

We were already thinking that, that number was way overstating for us. And as time has gone on, we actually -- and we've got more comfortable because of actual developments and actual claims and everything else to reduce the number because keeping that original model number is just not justified.

我們已經在想，這個數字對我們來說太高了。隨著時間的推移，我們實際上 - 由於實際的發展和實際的索賠以及其他減少數量的事情，我們變得更加舒適，因為保留原始型號是不合理的。

And as Mark did say in his comments, we're still at the top end of the range. Putting it differently also is that the book that we are curating seems to outperform modeled losses when an actual cat event happens. This is pretty big. And we didn't just miss it by a little bit, we seem to be improving in the models by a huge amount. And we think this is a good thing for future events.

正如馬克在他的評論中所說，我們仍然處於該範圍的頂端。換句話說，當實際的貓事件發生時，我們正在策劃的這本書似乎優於模型損失。這是相當大的。我們不僅錯過了一點點，而且我們似乎在模型上有了很大的改進。我們認為這對未來的活動來說是件好事。

Yeah, yeah. So at this point, your appetite for growth and voluntary policies in Florida, you're obviously doing well in depop. Are you interested in the green policies out there from a voluntary standpoint?

是啊是啊。所以在這一點上，你對佛羅裡達州的成長和自願政策的興趣，你顯然在去流行方面做得很好。從自願的角度來看，您對那裡的綠色政策感興趣嗎？

Yes, we are. And I think we actually -- all through most of this last Q4 and Q1, we continue to write voluntary policies, but it wasn't -- the volume of that was more than offset by the depopulations. They just become big items and that's just the nature of what happens. So yes, I think we will -- we are, and we will continue to write new policies, but it's small numbers compared to what we did in the depopulations.

是的我們是。我認為實際上，在第四季和第一季的大部分時間裡，我們繼續制定自願政策，但事實並非如此，政策的數量被人口減少所抵消。它們只是變成了大件，這就是所發生的事情的本質。所以，是的，我認為我們會——我們會，我們將繼續制定新的政策，但與我們在人口減少方面所做的相比，這個數字很小。

And we had communicated this because the items that people were looking for or what the state needed, whatever we're talking about was how do you shrink Citizens. And you have a lot of people there who are looking to lease it and just needed a better home to go to, and we provided that.

我們傳達了這一點，因為人們正在尋找的物品或國家需要的東西，無論我們談論的是如何縮小公民的規模。那裡有很多人想要租賃它，只是需要一個更好的家去，而我們提供了這一點。

And in all three takeouts we did, we were very careful as to how we curate who we made offers to. But the people we made offers to, 70% plus took us up on those offers. I point this out because I think in the November takeout, when we made offers, we got a 70% acceptance rate. Everybody else who was participating in that takeout, their combined acceptance rate was probably under 30%.

在我們所做的所有三項外賣中，我們都非常謹慎地選擇向誰提供報價。但在我們向其提出報價的人中，70% 以上接受了我們的報價。我指出這一點是因為我認為在 11 月的外賣中，當我們提出報價時，我們得到了 70% 的接受率。參與該外送活動的其他所有人的接受率總計可能低於 30%。

And could you expand on that? Why do you think that is that your premium any different than the others? Or just the size, the brand? What's driving that?

能詳細說明一下嗎？您認為為什麼您的保費與其他人有什麼不同？還是只是尺寸、品牌？是什麼推動了這一點？

I think it's all of the above. It's -- you have to bring multiple things to the table, track record, make sure you make a compelling proposition to the policyholders that they should come with us. We have long courted agents, or I think -- and we should give a shout out to them. Almost universally, all the policies we selected, the agents who are active returning the policy orders, this is a better place for you to go to. If I could have put you there in the first place, I would have, so take the offer.

我認為以上都是。你必須把很多事情擺到桌面上，追蹤記錄，確保你向保單持有人提出一個令人信服的建議，讓他們應該和我們一起。我們長期以來一直在尋求特工，或者我認為——我們應該向他們大聲喊叫。幾乎普遍，我們選擇的所有保單，主動退回保單訂單的代理商，這是您更好的去處。如果我能把你放在第一位，我就會這麼做，所以接受這個邀請吧。

So these are all individual little items that all come together that work. While the other side of things also in all takeout, all three takeouts, we actually made fewer offers than we were approved for by the OIR. And we did some of that because unless we think the policyholder is going to be happy with us long term, we tend not to make the offer. We want people to join the HCI family who want to be with the HCI family. And you're seeing the culminations of all of these things coming together in the right way.

所以這些都是單獨的小物品，全部組合在一起才能發揮作用。雖然事情的另一面也是在所有外賣中，所有三個外賣中，我們實際上提供的報價比 OIR 批准的要少。我們這樣做了一些，因為除非我們認為保單持有人會對我們長期感到滿意，否則我們往往不會提出要約。我們希望那些想要與 HCI 大家庭在一起的人加入 HCI 大家庭。你會看到所有這些事情以正確的方式結合在一起達到頂峰。

Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Mark, given the timing on the takeouts in the first quarter and the magnitude, any thoughts about kind of earned premium contribution in Q1? I think when we get into Q2, that might be a little more straightforward exercise. But just given the pacing of things, I wonder if you can provide any guidance on that.

是的。是的。好的。馬克，考慮到第一季外送的時間和規模，對第一季賺取的保費貢獻有什麼想法嗎？我認為當我們進入第二季時，這可能是一個更簡單的練習。但考慮到事情的節奏，我想知道你是否可以提供任何指導。

Yeah. So I think Karin and I both mentioned $273 million of premium in-force, and that's three takeouts. One in November, one in December, one in January. So I'll just focus on the ones in 2023 first. There should -- we booked $23 million -- well, actually, put them together. We booked $23 million of earned premium in Q4. And if you look at the timing of the assumptions that were done in '23 and in '24, earned premium in Q1 would be closer to $60 million to $62 million instead of the $23 million that we have, yeah, and then a little bit higher than that in Q2.

是的。所以我認為卡琳和我都提到了 2.73 億美元的有效保費，這是三項外送。十一月一個，十二月一個，一月一個。所以我先關注 2023 年的問題。我們預訂了 2300 萬美元，實際上，應該把它們放在一起。我們在第四季度預訂了 2300 萬美元的賺取保費。如果你看看 23 年和 24 年所做假設的時間安排，第一季的賺取保費將接近 6000 萬至 6200 萬美元，而不是我們擁有的 2300 萬美元，是的，然後一點點高於第二季。

And then the January takeout?

那麼一月份的外送呢？

Sorry, I sort of shifted gears halfway through there, Mark. I apologize. I included both of them. So in -- yes, so in Q1, there should be about $40 million of more earned premium that -- from those takeouts than there was in Q4. And then there'll be a little bit more again in Q2, because one of those assumptions was towards the end of January. Does that make sense? Does that answer the question?

抱歉，馬克，我中途換了檔。我道歉。我把他們兩個都包括在內。因此，是的，所以在第一季度，從這些外賣中賺取的溢價應該比第四季度多約 4000 萬美元。然後第二季還會有更多的情況，因為其中一個假設是在一月底左右。那有意義嗎？這能回答問題嗎？

Yeah, that's perfect. And then due to the -- I think the question might have been asked earlier, and if you answered that, I'm not sure they picked it up a bit, but could you give kind of a sense of the bottom-line contribution from the takeout? If it was $23 million in premium, do you have a number for the bottom-line contribution?

是的，那太完美了。然後，由於——我認為這個問題可能已經被提早提出了，如果你回答了這個問題，我不確定他們是否接受了一點，但你能否給出一種對底線貢獻的感覺？如果保費為 2300 萬美元，您是否有底線貢獻的數字？

It's about $14 million. And of course, that number will be significantly higher in Q1.

大約是1400萬美元。當然，第一季這個數字會明顯更高。

Yes. Okay. Does that margin flow through? Is that $14 million out of $23 million? And then if we did the simple math --

是的。好的。該保證金會流過嗎？這是 2300 萬美元中的 1400 萬美元嗎？然後如果我們做簡單的數學計算--

Yeah. So keep in mind, from now until May 31, you've got no reinsurance in there, right? So the margin -- initially, the margin is about 65%. We're reserving 35% on that book. So you've got 65% initially. As you start to -- there's also no policy acquisition expense initially.

是的。所以請記住，從現在到 5 月 31 日，您沒有再保險，對吧？所以利潤率——最初，利潤率約為 65%。我們對該書預訂了 35%。所以你最初有 65%。當您開始時，最初也沒有保單購買費用。

Now as policies start to renew in March, some policy acquisition expense will start to creep in so that will erode that margin a little bit. But for the first five months of the year, the margins are obviously very significant. And then when June 1 comes along and reinsurance kicks in, of course, the margins will deviate toward the norm with the rest of the book.

現在，隨著保單在三月開始更新，一些保單獲取費用將開始悄悄增加，從而稍微侵蝕這一利潤率。但今年前五個月，利潤率顯然非常可觀。當然，當 6 月 1 日來臨，再保險開始實施時，利潤率將偏離本書其餘部分的正常水準。

But for Q4, Q1, and Q2, you've got a very significant amount of premium that's coming in at a very high margin.

但對於第四季、第一季和第二季度，你會獲得非常可觀的溢價，利潤率非常高。

(Operator Instructions) Casey Alexander, Compass Point.

（操作員指示）Casey Alexander，Compass Point。

Yeah, hi. Good afternoon. I have a couple of questions here. You're doing the CORE assumptions in April and June. And just thinking about the company's timing, normally, they don't do assumptions right ahead of the busiest storm season. Can you discuss the timing of those assumptions? And why not wait until later in the year when you're past the storm season before making those assumptions?

是的，嗨。午安.我在這裡有幾個問題。您將在四月和六月進行核心假設。只要考慮一下公司的時機，通常他們不會在最繁忙的風暴季節之前做出假設。您能討論一下這些假設的時間安排嗎？為什麼不等到今年稍後風暴季過去後再做出這些假設呢？

Yeah. Casey, great question of a true veteran. The reason for that -- all of that stuff is that these are all the mechanics of depopulation ideas, meeting a new start-up and everything else. CORE started with $25 million of surplus. And because of that, we sort of put -- and we have to have reinsurance for it in place when we do the first depopulation in February 27.

是的。凱西，一個真正的退伍軍人的好問題。原因是——所有這些都是人口減少的想法的機制，遇到一個新的新創公司和其他一切。CORE 啟動時有 2500 萬美元的盈餘。正因為如此，當我們在 2 月 27 日進行第一次人口減少時，我們必須為其提供再保險。

So we had to put that into place. So we bought reinsurance for a certain size book. Other little things that go on is because of Citizens' depopulation schedules and blackout times, et cetera. It's difficult to hit that peak depopulation size all in one go because of renewal cycles and so on. So that's why we're going to do the April and the June ones to top up what we already got in February.

所以我們必須把它落實到位。所以我們為一定規模的書買了再保險。其他發生的小事情是由於公民的人口減少時間表和停電時間等原因。由於更新周期等原因，很難一次性達到峰值減少規模。這就是為什麼我們要在四月和六月進行補充，以補充我們在二月已經得到的東西。

So you are trying to over three takeouts do what -- in theory, you could say you could do it all in one go. But in practice, it's easy -- it's better to layer it in over three takeouts than to do it in one. So in reality, it's the April and the June takeouts could almost be thought of as delayed February takeout.

所以你試著讓三個以上的外賣做什麼——理論上，你可以說你可以一次完成這一切。但實際上，這很容易——將其分層放在三個以上的外賣中比放在一個中更好。所以實際上，四月和六月的外賣幾乎可以被認為是延遲的二月外賣。

Understood. If you already have the reinsurance in place, then you're covered for the upcoming season. So that makes perfect sense. Thank you for that. Secondly, your discussion about the declining reserves against Ian. The change, over $200 million from the models. I'm just curious, the next time there's a storm, would you again just go off the models first and then work it down? Or is your experience with the book, knowing that it tends to outperform the models, would you reserve it differently next time? Or would you do the same thing and just go by the models and then work it down?

明白了。如果您已經購買了再保險，那麼您就可以享受下一季的保險。所以這是完全有道理的。謝謝你。其次，你關於針對伊恩的儲備金下降的討論。模型的改變帶來了超過 2 億美元的收入。我只是好奇，下次遇到暴風雨時，你會再次先關閉模型，然後再處理嗎？或者你對這本書的體驗，知道它往往優於模型，你下次會以不同的方式保留它嗎？還是你會做同樣的事情，只是按照模型然後逐步解決？

So Casey, look, the item that happens is the day after a storm, everybody is going off the models and everybody uses those numbers. That's kind of like what happens. And actually, if you recall, as I vividly do, the days after Ian happened, people are busily -- the whole industry modelers, et cetera, they say, oh, Ian's going to be $30 billion. Then it became $40 billion, Then it became $50 billion. I think it peaked out at over $70 billion was what Ian's estimate was.

所以凱西，你看，發生的事情是暴風雨過後的第二天，每個人都放棄了模型，每個人都使用這些數字。這有點像是發生的事情。事實上，如果你記得，就像我清楚記得的那樣，Ian 事件發生後的幾天，人們都很忙——整個行業的建模師等等，他們說，哦，Ian 將成為300 億美元。然後變成400億美元，然後變成500億美元。我認為 Ian 的估計是峰值超過 700 億美元。

And we were already looking at it within 10 days, given our technology, that given our market share, it would be virtually impossible to spend $70 billion on the claims that we had. But we are also subject to actuaries and industry models and everything else. That's why Mark is almost obligated to book with what the model was saying.

我們已經在 10 天內考慮過這個問題，考慮到我們的技術和市場份額，幾乎不可能花費 700 億美元來實現我們的主張。但我們也受到精算師、產業模型和其他一切的影響。這就是為什麼馬克幾乎有義務按照模特兒所說的內容預訂。

It's only when about five, six months go by and we start switching over to claims received, payments made, all those kinds of things that you can switch to your own experience model. And that has what's gone on. And Mark's comments about having to reduce Ian, if you recall, he also said he's at the top end of the range. I don't think at this point, the actuary is telling you and we can't put up more for Ian than that number.

只有當大約五、六個月過去後，我們才開始切換到收到的索賠、付款以及所有這些你可以切換到你自己的體驗模型的事情。這就是發生的事情。馬克關於必須減少伊恩的評論，如果你還記得的話，他還說他處於範圍的頂端。我認為精算師目前還沒有告訴你，我們不能為伊恩提供比這個數字更多的金額。

We have plenty of reinsurance left, but this is how this is going. And as I answered in one of the earlier questions, this is all not by accident. It is a result of the technology and how it curates a superior book and how it actually performs in the storm. These things are now becoming inescapable as to how well this stuff is working.

我們還有大量的再保險，但事情就是這樣。正如我在之前的一個問題中回答的那樣，這並非偶然。這是科技的結果，也是科技如何策劃一本優秀書籍以及它在暴風雨中實際表現的結果。現在，關於這些東西的運作效果如何，這些事情變得不可避免。

All right. That again makes perfect sense. My last question is TypTap has now generated four straight quarters of profit, you've kind of removed Centerbridge from the equation. So what else does TypTap have to do before you guys would be willing to create a capital transaction for the company?

好的。這又是完全合理的。我的最後一個問題是 TypTap 現在已經連續四個季度產生利潤，你已經將 Centerbridge 從等式中刪除了。那麼，在你們願意為公司創建資本交易之前，TypTap 還需要做些什麼呢？

Casey, I don't necessarily know that TypTap has been hampered by things we have to do to create a capital transaction. I think we could do that reasonably well and reasonably short order. Don't forget, we did all the way to an S-1 three years ago.

Casey，我不一定知道 TypTap 受到了我們必須做的事情來創建資本交易的阻礙。我認為我們可以在相當短的時間內做得相當好。別忘了，我們三年前就已經做到了 S-1。

But part of that whole situation, it's tempered by two items. One is market macro conditions out there in terms of IPOs and stuff, and we watch and monitor that. So that's what we are being told is the market is -- conditions are very good for follow-on offerings, but they are less favorable for IPOs. So that gives us some pause.

但作為整個情況的一部分，它受到兩個因素的影響。一是IPO等方面的市場宏觀狀況，我們對此進行觀察與監控。這就是我們被告知的市場情況——後續發行的條件非常好，但不利於首次公開發行。這讓我們有些猶豫。

And the second item is, obviously, where does -- is TypTap actually in need of new capital. If it isn't, do you want to keep enhancing its value and showing how -- what a great outfit -- what a great company and technology it has and only when it's fully appreciated by the market then have the capital event. So these are things that are causing us to not move as quickly as people might anticipate because in being patient, we're actually, I think, creating greater value for our shareholders, which ultimately is the goal.

顯然，第二項是 TypTap 實際上需要新資本嗎？如果不是，你是否想繼續提升它的價值，並展示它是多麼偉大的公司和技術，只有當它得到市場的充分認可時，才會有資本事件。因此，這些因素導致我們的行動速度不如人們預期的那麼快，因為我​​認為，只要保持耐心，我們實際上是在為股東創造更大的價值，這才是我們的最終目標。

Okay. And my last question is there's significant indication that interest rates are likely to be declining at some point in time here in the next several months, just look at Chairman Powell's testimony earlier today. And you guys have a significant cash hoard. At what point in time do you start to kind of extend duration a little bit and try to capture some of that yield curve for a little longer compared to where short-term rates are likely to go over the next 12 to 24 months?

好的。我的最後一個問題是，有明顯跡象表明利率可能會在未來幾個月的某個時間點下降，只需看看鮑威爾主席今天早些時候的證詞。你們擁有大量現金儲備。與未來 12 至 24 個月內短期利率可能走向的情況相比，您在什麼時間點開始稍微延長久期，並嘗試將部分殖利率曲線捕捉得更久一些？

Funny you bring that up. We were just having that discussion internally. And I think in the coming months, we will be extending duration and going more towards fixing the yield on our cash hoard. So yes, we are exactly of the same mind, and we are starting to move in that direction.

有趣的是你提出來了。我們只是在內部進行討論。我認為在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將延長期限並更致力於固定現金儲備的收益率。所以，是的，我們的想法完全一樣，而且我們正開始朝這個方向前進。

At this time, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Paresh Patel, who has a few closing remarks.

至此，問答環節結束。我現在想把電話轉回給帕雷什·帕特爾，他有幾句結束語。

Thank you. On behalf of the entire management team, I would like to thank our shareholders, employees, agents, and most importantly, our policyholders for their continued support. Thank you.

謝謝。我謹代表整個管理團隊感謝我們的股東、員工、代理人，最重要的是我們的保單持有人的持續支持。謝謝。

At this time, this concludes our question-and-answer session. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

至此，我們的問答環節就結束了。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。