Hafnia Ltd (HAFN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Hafnia's fourth-quarter 2023 financial results presentation.

歡迎閱讀 Hafnia 2023 年第四季財務業績示範。

We will begin shortly.

我們很快就會開始。

You will be brought through the presentation by Hafnia's CEO, Mikael Skov; CFO, Perry Van Echtelt; EVP, Commercial, Jens Christophersen; and EVP, Head of Investor Relations, Thomas Andersen.

您將聆聽 Hafnia 執行長 Mikael Skov 的演講；財務長佩里‧範‧艾特特爾特；商業執行副總裁 Jens Christophersen；執行副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Thomas Andersen。

They will be pleased to address any questions after the presentation.

他們將很樂意在演示後解決任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Certain statements in this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements based upon management's current expectations and include known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which Hafnia is unable to predict or control that may cause the Hafnia's actual results, performance or plans to differ materially from any future results, performance or plans expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議中的某些陳述可能構成基於管理層當前預期的前瞻性陳述，並包括已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他因素，其中許多因素是Hafnia 無法預測或控制的，這些因素可能會導致Hafnia 的實際結果、業績或計劃與此類前瞻性陳述明示或暗示的任何未來結果、業績或計劃存在重大差異。

In addition, nothing in this conference call constitutes an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.

此外，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成購買或出售任何證券的要約或招攬購買或出售任何證券的要約。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Hafnia's CEO, Mikael Skov.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給 Hafnia 的執行長 Mikael Skov。

Thank you, and hello, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家好。

My name is Mikael Skov, and I'm the CEO of Hafnia.

我叫 Mikael Skov，是 Hafnia 的執行長。

Allow me to extend a warm welcome to each of you for joining Hafnia's fourth-quarter 2023 conference call.

請容許我熱烈歡迎大家參加 Hafnia 2023 年第四季電話會議。

With me here today are our CFO, Perry Van Echtelt; EVP, Commercial, Jens Christophersen; and EVP, Head of Investor Relations, Thomas Andersen.

今天和我在一起的是我們的財務長 Perry Van Echtelt；商業執行副總裁 Jens Christophersen；執行副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Thomas Andersen。

We will present Halfnia's performance for the fourth quarter 2023 together.

我們將一起呈現哈夫尼亞2023年第四季的業績。

Today's presentation agenda will cover four key topics.

今天的演講議程將涵蓋四個關鍵主題。

As I start, I will provide an overview and highlight key corporate developments during the quarter.

首先，我將概述並重點介紹本季公司的主要發展。

Following that, we present the fourth-quarter and full-year financial performance.

接下來，我們將介紹第四季和全年的財務表現。

Subsequently, we will provide commercial updates and an outlook on the product tanker market, and finally, concluding the presentation with Hafnia's ESG overview.

隨後，我們將提供商業更新和成品油輪市場展望，最後以 Hafnia 的 ESG 概述來結束演示。

Let's move to slide number 2.

讓我們轉到第二張投影片。

Before proceeding, we should all be aware and take note of the mandatory disclaimer.

在繼續之前，我們都應該了解並注意強制性免責聲明。

Certain statements in this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements, and it's crucial to recognize that these statements involve some inherent risk and uncertainties.

本次電話會議中的某些陳述可能構成前瞻性陳述，並承認這些陳述涉及一些固有風險和不確定性至關重要。

You should also be reminded that nothing in this conference call constitutes an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.

也應提醒您，本次電話會議中的任何內容均不構成購買或出售任何證券的要約或徵求購買或出售任何證券的要約。

Thank you for your understanding and let's begin with the presentation.

感謝您的理解，讓我們開始示範。

Slide number 3.

投影片編號 3。

Let us start with an overview of Hafnia and the key highlights in the fourth quarter 2023.

讓我們先概述 Hafnia 以及 2023 年第四季的主要亮點。

Moving to slide number 4.

轉到第 4 號投影片。

Hafnia is one of the world's leading tanker owners and operators within the product and chemical tanker market.

Hafnia 是產品和化學品船市場上全球領先的油輪船東和營運商之一。

As owners and operators of more than 200 modern vessels across eight pools, we offer a fully integrated shipping platform, including technical management, commercial and chartering services, pool management, and an extensive bunker procurement desk service to over 1,400 vessels within our pool platform and for external shipowners in 2023.

作為八個池中200 多艘現代船舶的所有者和運營商，我們提供完全整合的航運平台，包括技術管理、商業和租船服務、池管理以及為我們池平台內的1,400 多艘船舶提供廣泛的燃油採購服務台服務，以及2023 年適用於外部船東。

With a robust business model, Hafnia has maintained its position as one of the foremost players in the shipping industry.

憑藉著穩健的商業模式，哈夫尼亞一直保持著航運業最重要參與者之一的地位。

At the end of the quarter, we owned and chartered a diversified portfolio of 130 vessels.

截至本季末，我們擁有並租賃了由 130 艘船舶組成的多元化投資組合。

At an average property valuation of $4.9 billion for Hafnia's owned vessels, it gives an approximately net asset value of $3.9 billion at the end of 2023.

以 Hafnia 擁有的船舶的平均財產估值為 49 億美元，到 2023 年底，資產淨值約為 39 億美元。

This represents an NAV per share of around $7.7 or NOK78.9.

這意味著每股資產淨值約為 7.7 美元或 78.9 挪威克朗。

Since the merger with BW Tankers back in 2019, our net asset value in five years have approximately quadrupled from $1 billion, which illustrates the significant growth of Hafnia.

自 2019 年與 BW Tankers 合併以來，我們的淨資產價值在五年內從 10 億美元增長了約四倍，這說明了 Hafnia 的顯著增長。

By implementing our fleet renewal strategy, we can maintain Hafnia's fleet at a low average age of 8.3 years to enhance its utilization and improve earnings capability as well as our environmental footprint.

透過實施我們的機隊更新策略，我們可以將 Hafnia 的機隊維持在 8.3 年的低平均年齡，以提高其利用率、改善獲利能力以及我們的環境足跡。

Moving to slide number 5.

轉到第 5 張投影片。

At Hafnia, we maintain a proactive approach to market evaluation, continuously seeking advantage opportunities as part of our active management strategies.

在 Hafnia，我們保持積極主動的市場評估方法，並不斷尋求優勢機會，作為我們主動管理策略的一部分。

We started the joint venture with CSSC in 2018 and subsequently Andromeda in 2021.

我們於 2018 年與 CSSC 成立了合資企業，隨後於 2021 年與 Andromeda 成立了合資企業。

In 2022, we have acquired a total of 32 chemical and product tankers through Chemical Tankers Inc and its subsidiaries, and 12 LR1 product tankers from Scorpio.

2022年，我們透過Chemical Tankers Inc及其子公司總共收購了32艘化學品和成品油輪，並從Scorpio收購了12艘LR1成品油輪。

We also concluded a joint venture with Socatra last year with an order of four dual-fuel methanol, MR Newbuilds.

去年，我們還與 Socatra 成立了一家合資企業，訂購了四台雙燃料甲醇 MR Newbuilds。

Our fleet, which include our own and commercially operated vessels, has steadily increased from 176 to 210 over the past five years, representing a growth of 19% in overall.

我們的船隊（包括我們自己的和商業運營的船舶）在過去五年中從 176 艘穩步增加到 210 艘，總體增長了 19%。

We remain committed to pursuing strategic acquisitions and joint ventures that drive sustainable growth and position us for the long-term success.

我們仍然致力於尋求策略性收購和合資企業，以推動永續成長並為我們取得長期成功奠定基礎。

Moving to slide number 6.

轉到第 6 張投影片。

Moving on, I would like to update some key corporate updates for Hafnia over the fourth quarter.

接下來，我想更新 Hafnia 第四季的一些重要公司動態。

Firstly, I'm proud to announce the newly launched Panamax pool, partnered with Mercuria, to bridge the gap across a rapidly aging segment. 10 vessels with an average age of 13 years will be delivered to the Hafnia Panamax pool aiming to capitalize on the combined expertise and resources of both companies.

首先，我很自豪地宣布與摩科瑞合作新推出的巴拿馬型船池，以縮小快速老化市場的差距。 Hafnia 巴拿馬型船池將交付 10 艘平均船齡為 13 年的船舶，旨在充分利用兩家公司的專業知識和資源。

Next, in alignment with our dedication to sustainability, we have entered in a joint venture with Big Hill on the development of hydrocarbon fuels plant to produce low CI blue methanol and sustainable aviation fuel at a later stage.

接下來，為了與我們對永續發展的奉獻精神保持一致，我們與 Big Hill 成立了一家合資企業，開發碳氫化合物工廠，以便在後期生產低 CI 藍色甲醇和可持續航空燃料。

Still subject to FID, this project will develop new sustainable seeding opportunities within the CO2 and methanol and sustainable fuel sector.

該項目仍取決於最終投資決定，將在二氧化碳、甲醇和永續燃料領域開發新的永續播種機會。

Lastly, Hafnia collaborated with Hafnia Bunker Alliance member, Unigas, and the supplier of FincoEnergies for fuels in sustainable biofuel bunkering.

最後，Hafnia 與 Hafnia 燃油聯盟成員 Unigas 以及 FincoEnergies 合作，提供永續生物燃料加油。

During the year of 2023, we have facilitated seven deliveries of biofuels ranging from B30 to B100 for the Unigas fleet.

2023 年，我們為 Unigas 車隊提供了 7 次 B30 至 B100 範圍內的生物燃料交付。

Perry will take you all through the financials in the next section.

佩里將在下一節中向您介紹所有財務狀況。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Mikael.

謝謝，米凱爾。

Despite the unprecedented disruptions in supply chain and the challenging geopolitical conditions we experienced in 2023, Hafnia continues to deliver strong results.

儘管我們在 2023 年經歷了前所未有的供應鏈中斷和充滿挑戰的地緣政治條件，但 Hafnia 仍繼續取得強勁業績。

We achieved a net profit of $176.4 million for the fourth quarter, bringing our net profit for the year to $793.3 million.

第四季我們實現淨利 1.764 億美元，全年淨利達到 7.933 億美元。

This represents Hafnia's highest full-year result for the second consecutive year, further building on the strategic growth we've set out earlier.

這是 Hafnia 連續第二年取得的最高全年業績，進一步鞏固了我們先前製定的策略成長。

With a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value, we optimized our balance sheet by reducing our leverage further.

憑藉對提高股東價值的堅定承諾，我們透過進一步降低槓桿來優化資產負債表。

Our net LTV ratio continued to decrease from 27.4% to 26.3% in the fourth quarter due to accelerated debt repayment and improved test prices.

由於加速償還債務和提高測試價格，第四季度我們的淨 LTV 比率繼續從 27.4% 下降至 26.3%。

Over the year, our net LTV ratio has been reduced more than 5%, reducing financing expenses further in a high interest rate environment.

一年來，我們的淨貸款價值比降低了5%以上，在高利率環境下進一步降低了融資費用。

In line with our dividend policy, we're pleased to announce a dividend payout of $0.2431 per share or approximately NOK2.57 for the quarter.

根據我們的股利政策，我們很高興地宣布本季派息為每股 0.2431 美元，約 2.57 挪威克朗。

That means we will distribute a total of $123.5 million in dividends and a dividend payout ratio of 70%.

這意味著我們將分配總計1.235億美元的股息，股息支付率為70%。

And this brings Hafnia's total dividends from 2023 earnings to be more than $500 million, representing an average payout ratio of 64.1%.

這使得 Hafnia 2023 年獲利的股息總額超過 5 億美元，平均股息率為 64.1%。

We'll continue to optimize our balance sheet to further reduce our leverage and simultaneously deliver strong shareholder returns.

我們將繼續優化資產負債表，進一步降低槓桿率，同時提供強勁的股東回報。

We then move to the next page.

然後我們進入下一頁。

For the fourth quarter, we generated a TCE income of $330 million, bringing our full-year TCE income to $1.367 billion.

第四季度，我們的TCE收入為3.3億美元，使全年TCE收入達到13.67億美元。

As mentioned earlier, we've also taken the IFRS 15 principles of load to discharge adjustments into our financials, and this results in a negative TCE adjustment of $11.7 million.

如前所述，我們也將 IFRS 15 的負荷與排放調整原則納入我們的財務數據，這導致 TCE 調整為 1,170 萬美元。

Including this, we achieved an EBITDA of $234.5 million for the fourth quarter and the full year EBITDA of just over $1 billion.

計入此，我們第四季的 EBITDA 為 2.345 億美元，全年 EBITDA 略高於 10 億美元。

In Q4, we have generated $8.8 million from a commercial pool and bunkering business, which is continuously to perform well.

第四季度，我們從商業池和加油業務中獲得了 880 萬美元的收入，並且持續表現良好。

Financial expenses reduced as we also recognized a portion of the market value of our interest rate hedges in our income statement, resulting in a reduction of $6.6 million in net financial expense.

由於我們也在損益表中確認了部分利率對沖的市場價值，因此財務費用減少，淨財務費用減少了 660 萬美元。

All in all, we've reported a record net profit of $793.3 million, as I said, Hafnia's best year to date.

總而言之，我們報告了創紀錄的淨利潤 7.933 億美元，正如我所說，這是 Hafnia 迄今為止最好的一年。

Our return on equity accounted to 37.4% for the full year.

全年股本回報率為37.4%。

We had a cash balance of $142 million at the end of the year and maintained a total liquidity of over $460 million, including undrawn facilities of $321 million.

截至年底，我們的現金餘額為 1.42 億美元，流動性總額超過 4.6 億美元，其中未提取融資額為 3.21 億美元。

At the end of Q4, around 75% of our loans was hedged at a weighted average of 1.62 base rate.

截至第四季末，我們約 75% 的貸款以 1.62 的加權平均基準利率進行避險。

This hedging strategy has largely protected us against strong increases in interest rates and thereby controlling the financing costs.

這種對沖策略在很大程度上保護了我們免受利率大幅上漲的影響，從而控制了融資成本。

As a forward-looking company, we will continue monitoring our key leverage ratios and cash breakevens.

作為一家前瞻性的公司，我們將繼續監控我們的關鍵槓桿率和現金收支平衡。

This strategy will ensure the resilience of our balance sheet, enabling us to seize upon any opportunities that arise in the market.

這項策略將確保我們資產負債表的彈性，使我們能夠抓住市場上出現的任何機會。

We then move on to the operating summary.

然後我們繼續進行操作摘要。

In the fourth quarter, our TCE was based on 10,732 earning days.

第四季度，我們的 TCE 是基於 10,732 個獲利天數。

And we generated an average TCE per day of $30,732.

我們每天的平均 TCE 為 30,732 美元。

This improved from $28,954 per day in the third quarter.

這比第三季每天 28,954 美元有所改善。

Over the full year 2023, the average TCE stood at $32,326 per day.

2023 年全年，平均 TCE 為每天 32,326 美元。

Then OpEx costs, which consist of our vessel operating costs and technical management expenses, were based on 9,601 calendar days in the quarter, leading to an average of $7,764 per day, lower than the $8,160 per day in the previous quarter.

然後，營運支出成本（包括船舶營運成本和技術管理費用）基於本季的 9,601 個日曆日，平均為每天 7,764 美元，低於上一季的每天 8,160 美元。

For the full year '23, the OpEx costs were [$7,760] per day based on almost 38,000 calendar days.

23 年全年，基於近 38,000 個日曆日，營運支出成本為每天 [7,760 美元]。

The reduction is mainly owing to delay in some supply due to trading patterns and no major repairs of vessels for the year.

減少的主要原因是貿易模式導致部分供應延遲以及年內沒有船舶大修。

Then moving on to the fleet coverage for '24, the product tanker market has remained strong through 2023 due to factors like increased refinery throughput, section refining capacity, and higher trade volumes.

接下來是 24 年的船隊覆蓋範圍，由於煉油廠吞吐量、分段煉油能力和貿易量增加等因素，成品油輪市場在 2023 年之前仍然保持強勁。

In the beginning of 2024, the market has been heavily impacted by the situation in the Red Sea resulting in re-routed and longer voyages and spikes in earnings.

2024年初，市場受到紅海局勢的嚴重影響，導致航線改道、航程更長、收益激增。

As of February 29, 2024, 80% of the total earning days in Q1 '24 have been covered at an average of $37,668 per day.

截至 2024 年 2 月 29 日，24 年第一季總營收天數的 80% 已覆蓋，平均每天 37,668 美元。

This represents a significant increase compared to the previous quarters.

與前幾季相比，這一數字顯著增加。

For '24, 30% of the entire earning base recover with an average of $33,419 per day.

24 年，整個收入基礎的 30% 恢復，平均每天 33,419 美元。

We then move to the next page.

然後我們進入下一頁。

Benefiting from solid fundamentals and anticipated increased oil demand, we can expect '24 to yet be another strong year.

受惠於堅實的基本面和預期的石油需求成長，我們預計 24 年將又是強勁的一年。

We are well prepared for this market through our strategically positioned fleet and high spot market exposure.

透過我們策略定位的機隊和高現貨市場曝光度，我們為這個市場做好了充分準備。

This page presents a comparative analysis of three scenarios outlining Hafnia's potential earnings for this year.

本頁對三種情境進行了比較分析，概述了 Hafnia 今年的潛在收入。

These scenarios include, firstly, consensus forecast from the equity analysts; secondly, an extrapolation of the Q1 covered rates applied to the variable earnings base in '24; and then a third scenario based on the 2024 coverage rates similarly applied to the available earning days in 2024.

這些情境首先包括股票分析師的一致預測；其次，對適用於 24 年可變收入基礎的第一季覆蓋率進行推斷；接著是基於 2024 年覆蓋率的第三種情況，同樣適用於 2024 年的可用獲利天數。

In each of the three scenarios, the indications show yet another exceptionally good year for Hafnia.

在這三種情況中，有跡象顯示哈夫尼亞又迎來了異常豐收的一年。

We move to the next page.

我們進入下一頁。

Jens will then be sharing the industry review and market outlook.

Jens 隨後將分享行業回顧和市場前景。

Thanks, Perry.

謝謝，佩里。

The next few pages provide commercial updates and our expectations on the product tanker market.

接下來的幾頁提供了商業更新以及我們對成品油輪市場的期望。

Since the beginning of 2024, the product tanker market has been significantly impacted by the attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

自2024年初以來，成品油輪市場受到紅海和亞丁灣船隻襲擊事件的嚴重影響。

This had led to several tanker owners and charterers deciding to avoid transits through the area by re-routing onto longer voyages via the Cape of Good Hope.

這導致一些油輪船東和租船人決定通過好望角改道至更長的航程，以避免途經該地區。

From the graph and table below, we can see that this re-routing would on average add 15 voyage days, representing a 57% increase in east to west voyage lengths, which will support the product tanker demand and tonne-miles.

從下圖和下表我們可以看出，此次航線改道平均將增加15個航程天數，即東西航程長度增加57%，這將支撐成品油輪需求和噸海裡。

Although the duration of this disruption remains unknown, this is already having a significant impact to the product tanker market.

儘管這種中斷的持續時間尚不清楚，但這已經對成品油輪市場產生了重大影響。

Slide 14.

幻燈片 14。

Looking at the effect on CBT movements, east to west, routing via Cape of Good Hope is increasing.

看看對 CBT 運輸的影響，從東到西，途經好望角的航線正在增加。

We estimate that transportation demand so far has increased by approximately 20 MR equivalents based on the beginning of 2024 cargo volumes, which were the lowest volumes compared to the last two years.

根據 2024 年初的貨運量，我們估計迄今為止的運輸需求已增加約 20 MR 等量，這是過去兩年中最低的貨運量。

We expect the full tonnage demand effect to be closer to 100 MR equivalents based on historical average of east-to-west volumes all routed via Cape of Good Hope.

根據所有途經好望角的東西向運輸量的歷史平均值，我們預期總噸位需求效應將接近 100 MR 當量。

Slide 15.

幻燈片 15。

West-to-east cargo volumes remain resilient when compared to historical averages but routing have already heavily skewed towards Cape of Good Hope.

與歷史平均值相比，西向東的貨運量仍然保持彈性，但航線已經嚴重偏向好望角。

This impact so far has approximately an increased demand of 30 MR equivalent, and we estimate the full impact at about 60 MRs, keeping in mind that west-to-east volumes require more cubic capacity than east-to-west volumes.

到目前為止，這種影響大約增加了 30 MR 當量的需求，我們估計全部影響約為 60 MR，請記住，從西向東的體積比從東向西的體積需要更多的立方容量。

The volumes from the west to the east have a 15% lower specific gravity.

從西到東體積的比重降低 15%。

Slide 16.

幻燈片 16。

Red Sea, impacts aside, the product tanker demand outlook remains very positive for 2024.

拋開紅海影響不談，2024 年成品油輪需求前景仍然非常樂觀。

Despite fourth-quarter 2023 demand showing it dipped, global oil demand has increased by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023, mainly due to China and non-OECD countries.

儘管 2023 年第四季的需求有所下降，但 2023 年全球石油需求仍增加了 230 萬桶/日，主要來自中國和非經合組織國家。

Global oil demand is also expected to further increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024 to 103 million barrels per day, driven by an increasing dependence on petrochemical feedstocks such as LPG and naphtha.

由於對液化石油氣和石腦油等石化原料的依賴日益增加，全球石油需求預計到 2024 年將進一步增加 120 萬桶/日，達到 1.03 億桶/日。

CPP on water, as a proxy for transportation demand, have also surpassed all-time highs positively impacting the current supply-demand balance.

作為交通運輸需求指標的水上 CPP 也已突破歷史高點，對目前的供需平衡產生正面影響。

The growth in oil and water is driven by longer voyages, not only from the Middle East to the West, for example, given also across the Pacific where the West Coast Americas are, to a greater extent, being supplied from the Far East.

石油和水的成長是由更長的航程推動的，例如，不僅是從中東到西方，還考慮到跨太平洋的美洲西海岸在更大程度上是從遠東供應的。

Specifically, EU inventory levels are below the five-year average.

具體而言，歐盟庫存水準低於五年平均值。

And whilst diesel and gasoil on water currently exceeds the 2023 average by approximately 20 million barrels, the portion destined for Europe is only 4 million barrels out of the 20 million.

雖然目前水上柴油和瓦斯油的產量比 2023 年的平均值高出約 2,000 萬桶，但運往歐洲的部分僅佔 2,000 萬桶中的 400 萬桶。

As such, we believe that we will see continued growth in oil on water if the Red Sea crisis is not solved. 4 million barrels equals less than one day of European diesel demand.

因此，我們相信，如果紅海危機得不到解決，我們將看到水上石油的持續成長。 400 萬桶相當於歐洲一天的柴油需求量。

Slide 17.

幻燈片 17。

Following on, Europe diesel gasoil and jet inventory remains well below the last five-year average due to continued drawdown across the year and low import levels as they continue to replace historical Russian import volumes.

隨後，由於全年持續下降以及進口水平較低，歐洲柴油和噴射機庫存仍遠低於過去五年平均水平，因為它們繼續取代歷史上的俄羅斯進口量。

East-to-west distillate supply volumes have decreased from December 2023 highs.

東西方餾分油供應量較 2023 年 12 月高點下降。

Middle East volumes reduced due to significantly elevated freight and refinery turnaround.

由於貨運量和煉油廠週轉率大幅上升，中東地區的銷售量減少。

The question now remains how long Europe will accept inventory draws before East-West arbitrages will open wider than they already have.

現在的問題仍然是，在東西方套利規模擴大之前，歐洲將接受庫存抽取多久。

Slide 18.

幻燈片 18。

The refinery landscape also supports a strong outlook for the product tanker market, driven by new refinery startups.

在新煉油廠新創公司的推動下，煉油廠格局也支持成品油輪市場的強勁前景。

In the Middle East, further expansion in refinery capacity and ramp-up of throughput at recent start-ups is expected in Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE.

在中東，預計伊拉克、科威特和阿聯酋的煉油廠產能將進一步擴大，近期新創企業的吞吐量將會增加。

Asian export growth is expected to be driven by a range of countries, notably India, where refinery capacity is continuing to expand, and China have made robust export quotas for this year and new refinery capacity expansions.

亞洲出口成長預計將受到一系列國家的推動，特別是煉油產能持續擴大的印度，而中國今年也制定了強勁的出口配額和新煉油產能擴張。

Meanwhile, product imports are expected to be supported by refinery closures in regions such as Japan, Europe, and Australia.

同時，日本、歐洲和澳洲等地區煉油廠的關閉預計將支持產品進口。

Refinery maintenance schedule is also potentially affecting trade routes and product tonne-miles.

煉油廠維護計劃也可能影響貿易路線和產品噸英里。

We expect US refinery maintenance to run through February and partly March, while European refinery maintenance commence in March and runs through April with an average of approximately 1.5 million barrels outage for the year, which supports the expectation of increased imports during the coming months from eastern regions.

我們預計美國煉油廠維護將持續到2 月和部分3 月，而歐洲煉油廠維護將於3 月開始並持續到4 月，全年平均停運約150 萬桶，這支持了未來幾個月從東部進口增加的預期。

Middle East refinery maintenance is expected to end shortly, and Asia Pacific is entering maintenance season in April.

中東煉廠檢修預計很快結束，亞太地區4月進入檢修季節。

During this period, Middle East to Far East supply will be required, and this is the historical drive for stronger markets east of Suez during April and May.

在此期間，將需要中東至遠東的供應，這是4月和5月蘇伊士以東市場走強的歷史驅動力。

Slide 19.

幻燈片 19。

Looking forward into 2024, we expect product demand and tonne-mile growth for the upcoming year.

展望 2024 年，我們預期來年的產品需求和噸英里成長。

The short-term outlook showed promise due to disruptions in the Red Sea, prompting vessels to re-route on to longer voyages.

由於紅海的干擾，短期前景顯示出希望，促使船隻改道前往更長的航程。

The duration of this disruption remains unknown.

這種中斷的持續時間仍然未知。

But despite that, the longer-term outlook remained positive, driven by refinery dislocations, heightened European imports, and the impact of Panama Canal transit restrictions due to continuous growth issues.

但儘管如此，由於煉油廠混亂、歐洲進口增加以及持續成長問題導致巴拿馬運河過境限制的影響，長期前景仍然樂觀。

The tonnage supply side also remains subdued, expanding only by 2.1% in 2023, and we expect only a further 1.2% expansion in 2024.

噸位供應方面也依然低迷，2023 年僅成長 2.1%，我們預期 2024 年僅進一步成長 1.2%。

This, together with the expected increase in oil consumption, will help to increase the utilization of the existing fleet.

這與石油消耗的預期增加一起，將有助於提高現有船隊的利用率。

Slide 20. 2023 saw an uptick in ordering activities, but the order book remains moderate at 13% of the fleet capacity. 2024 supply outlook remains limited as most of the orders placed are set to only materialize in 2025.

幻燈片 20。2023 年，訂單活動有所增加，但訂單量仍不大，佔船隊運力的 13%。 2024 年的供應前景仍然有限，因為大部分訂單只能在 2025 年實現。

Deliveries in 2023 were limited, falling by around 20% year on year.

2023年的交付量有限，年減20%左右。

While scrapping activities were also muted amid strong market conditions and increased appetite in the secondhand market.

同時，由於市場狀況強勁以及二手市場需求增加，拆船活動也有所減少。

This is also evident in the increased average demolition age of vessels.

這在船舶平均拆毀年齡的增加上也很明顯。

As an overview, the supply outlook remains positive as they are continuing and there are an increasing number of vessels approaching the older bracket.

總體而言，供應前景仍然樂觀，因為供應前景仍在持續，並且越來越多的船舶接近舊船級。

An increase in Newbuilds will also push the older part of the existing product tanker fleet into crude trading, which has a very old Aframax and Panamax fleet.

新造船的增加也將推動現有成品油輪船隊中較舊的部分進入原油貿易領域，其中包括非常老舊的阿芙拉型和巴拿馬型船隊。

And Mikael, over to you for the next few slides.

Mikael，接下來的幾張投影片就交給你了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next, let me take a chance to share about Hafnia's ESG projects.

接下來，讓我藉此機會分享Hafnia的ESG計畫。

In 2023, we took a first step into the methanol landscape by concluding a joint venture with Socatra to order four chemical IMO-II MR dual-fuel methanol vessels.

2023 年，我們與 Socatra 成立了一家合資企業，訂購了四艘化學 IMO-II MR 雙燃料甲醇船，從而邁出了進軍甲醇領域的第一步。

This is in line with Hafnia's sustainability values and ambitions in transiting towards a greener future and maritime sector.

這符合 Hafnia 的可持續發展價值觀以及向綠色未來和海事部門轉型的雄心。

We also partnered with industry peers, international organizations, and other key stakeholders to solve both short and long-term goals of the maritime sector, such as the establishment of digital ventures studio 30/50, implementation of optimization initiatives on our vessels, and development of clean hydrogen, ammonia production, and transportation project.

我們也與行業同行、國際組織和其他主要利益相關者合作，解決海事部門的短期和長期目標，例如建立數位風險工作室 30/50、在我們的船舶上實施優化舉措以及開發清潔氫、氨生產及運輸項目。

ESG remains a focal point on our agenda with 2023 serving as an important year for consolidating and furthering our sustainability strategy.

ESG 仍然是我們議程的焦點，2023 年是鞏固和推進我們永續發展策略的重要一年。

We remain committed to work towards our net zero ambitions.

我們仍然致力於實現淨零目標。

On to slide number 23.

轉到第 23 號投影片。

Looking ahead in 2024, I hold a positive outlook on Hafnia's ongoing commitment to fostering a greener maritime sector and leveraging our strategically positioned modern fleet.

展望 2024 年，我對 Hafnia 持續致力於培育更綠色的海事部門並利用我們戰略定位的現代船隊持樂觀態度。

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank our team and partners for the exceptional results achieved in 2023.

我也想藉此機會感謝我們的團隊和合作夥伴在 2023 年的卓越成果。

None of this success would have been possible without the dedication of our team, both onshore and at sea.

如果沒有我們陸上和海上團隊的奉獻精神，這一切的成功是不可能實現的。

Despite ongoing volatility in the future, I'm confident that Hafnia has taken the necessary steps to future prove itself and is well prepared to navigate the challenges.

儘管未來持續波動，但我相信哈夫尼亞已採取必要措施在未來證明自己，並做好應對挑戰的充分準備。

This comes to the end of our presentation, and I would like to open up the call for questions.

我們的演講到此結束，我想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) I actually don't see any there, so I'm going to move on to the raise hand function.

（操作員說明）實際上我沒有看到任何內容，因此我將繼續討論舉手功能。

And Frode, I'm going to unmute you.

佛洛德，我要取消你的靜音。

If you could please state your question.

如果可以的話請說出你的問題。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you, guys.

感謝你們。

Just a quick question on the market.

只是關於市場的一個簡單問題。

Given the re-routing around Africa, how do you explain the recent drop in LR1 and LR2 --

鑑於非洲航線的重新調整，您如何解釋最近 LR1 和 LR2 的下降——

You've got to put your password in first.

你必須先輸入你的密碼。

Your password.

你的密碼。

Sorry, Frode.

對不起，弗羅德。

I think someone was not on mute and I have just muted them.

我認為有人沒有靜音，而我剛剛將他們靜音。

So please go ahead.

所以請繼續。

Yeah, that was the first question.

是的，這是第一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Did you get it?

你明白了嗎？

Yes, I believe, Jens, could you unmute?

是的，我相信，Jens，你能取消靜音嗎？

Hi, Frode, yes, got the question.

嗨，弗羅德，是的，我有問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And that's probably a number of factors as to why the LR market has come off in the Middle East in the way that it has.

這可能是中東LR市場如此繁榮的原因之一。

But the key factor in our view is that the quick rise in freight that we saw at the back end of January where LR2 freight rose by almost $6 million for a voyage from the Middle East to UKC, that, to some extent, closed the arbitrage of the trade.

但我們認為關鍵因素是1月底我們看到的運費快速上漲，其中從中東到UKC的LR2航次運費上漲了近600萬美元，這在一定程度上結束了套利的貿易。

And we've seen diesel oil staying more local in the east rather than moving west at the volumes that it normally moves.

我們已經看到柴油更多地停留在東部地區，而不是像平常那樣向西輸送。

And this also -- this is the reason why we -- a key opinion that we have not yet seen the full demand effect of the closure of the Red Sea.

這也是我們的一個關鍵觀點，即我們尚未看到關閉紅海的全部需求效應。

Yeah.

是的。

And what's the next change that for the better in terms of the

下一個改變是什麼？

[price arm]?

[價格臂]？

It will be a recalibration of diesel prices when Europe starts to realize that their stocks needs replenishment.

當歐洲開始意識到其庫存需要補充時，柴油價格將重新調整。

And it will be a question of how much diesel oil is available in the US Gulf to satisfy European demand.

問題是美灣地區有多少柴油可以滿足歐洲的需求。

The balance will have to come from the east.

平衡必須來自東部。

It's worthwhile mentioning in this context that whilst we see a weakness in the LR market, we see quite a steady and strong MR market in the east, in particular, in the Far East on the back of good volume and demand.

在此背景下值得一提的是，雖然我們看到 LR 市場疲軟，但我們看到東部的 MR 市場相當穩定且強勁，特別是在遠東地區，其銷售和需求良好。

Yeah.

是的。

How about the refinery turnarounds in the west?

西部煉油廠的轉虧為盈情況如何？

What's your outlook there and the implication for product tanker?

您對那裡的前景有何看法以及對成品油輪的影響？

Tankers in the coming months?

未來幾個月內有油輪嗎？

How do you believe that refining rents are expected to increase, especially from the US Gulf?

您如何看待煉油租金預計會增加，尤其是來自美國海灣的煉油租金？

Yeah, but we share your view.

是的，但我們同意你的觀點。

Okay, sounds good.

好的聽起來不錯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Frode.

謝謝你，弗羅德。

I think I'm going to unmute, Eirik.

我想我要取消靜音，Eirik。

If you could please ask your question.

如果可以的話請問你的問題。

And actually, Eirik, you might have to unmute yourself.

事實上，Eirik，你可能必須取消自己的靜音。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just on your LTV now, you're 26%.

現在就您的 LTV 而言，您是 26%。

I think when you launched this dividend policy about 18 months ago, I don't think we expected you to reach the 20% limit as fast as you now are on the verge of doing.

我認為，當您大約 18 個月前推出這項股息政策時，我認為我們並沒有預期您會像現在這樣快地達到 20% 的限制。

What comes after that, Mikael, if I may ask, when you reached that level?

如果我可以問一下，當你達到那個水平之後，米凱爾，接下來會發生什麼？

And I take it that given the tone of your presentation here, you're not really interested in Newbuilds upsize, you're not really interested in secondhand acquisitions.

我認為，考慮到您在這裡演講的基調，您對新建船舶的擴建並不真正感興趣，對二手收購也不真正感興趣。

So then you will accumulate a lot of cash.

那你就會累積很多現金。

So what do you intend to do with that?

那你打算用它做什麼呢？

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you for that question and not a surprise one, I would say.

謝謝你提出這個問題，我想說，這並不令人意外。

So yeah, so I think you're absolutely right.

所以是的，所以我認為你是完全正確的。

So basically, I mean, our view is that there's still -- depending on what happens to the values overall and the earnings that there's still -- or may be a while ago before we break the 20%, it goes into the 80% payout.

所以基本上，我的意思是，我們的觀點是，取決於整體價值的變化和仍然存在的收益，或者可能不久前我們突破 20% 之前，它會進入 80% 的支付。

But I do want to be clear on the fact that we don't have any intention to build up cash.

但我確實想澄清一個事實，即我們無意累積現金。

And as you say, we are not looking to buy expensive vessels at this part of the curve unless they are part of any form of contract base where we can rent them out for many years.

正如你所說，我們不打算在曲線的這一部分購買昂貴的船隻，除非它們是任何形式的合約基礎的一部分，我們可以將它們出租多年。

So fundamentally, our focus has not changed.

所以從根本上來說，我們的重點沒有改變。

It's just that we haven't found it necessary to address specific dividend policies yet because there's still some way to go.

只是我們還沒有發現有必要解決具體的股利政策，因為還有很長的路要走。

But the Board and the management is obviously not focused on building up unnecessary cash.

但董事會和管理階層顯然並不專注於累積不必要的現金。

So we will just continue to focus on distributing capital back to shareholders as our strategy going forward.

因此，我們將繼續專注於將資本分配給股東，作為我們未來的策略。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And on the -- because the order book has increased a little, I think now if you're -- we're 13% and rising.

由於訂單增加，我想現在我們的成長率為 13%，並且還在上升。

And of course, the Newbuild delivery pace for 2025 is a bit higher than what it was.

當然，2025 年的新建交付速度比以前快一些。

What was your view there?

您在那裡有什麼看法？

I mean, is our time charters becoming interested?

我的意思是，我們的期租合約是否變得有趣了？

You are quite open for 2025.

你對 2025 年持相當開放的態度。

What about you use a few of your older vessels?

您使用一些舊船隻怎麼樣？

You've sold them in the past.

你過去已經賣掉它們了。

Now you haven't done anything for some time.

現在你已經有一段時間沒有做任何事情了。

Are you watching the S&P market?

您有在關注標準普爾市場嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

And we do that all the time basically.

我們基本上一直都這樣做。

So we don't lock ourselves into a strategy where it's like, okay, we're going to be doing this for the next one or two years.

因此，我們不會將自己鎖定在這樣的策略中：好吧，我們將在未來一兩年內這樣做。

So time charter versus spot is very much a moving target.

因此，期租與現貨租船是一個不斷變化的目標。

So if we see two- or three-year time charter rates that we feel is exceeding our expectation for spot market, then we have no problem with charting out or do hedges via different instruments.

因此，如果我們認為兩年期或三年期租船費率超出了我們對現貨市場的預期，那麼我們可以透過不同的工具繪製或進行對沖。

So it's not like we're locked in no matter what.

所以無論如何我們都不會被鎖在裡面。

So it's simply just a dynamic strategy that every time if we see that long-term charters are paying more than our view on spot, we will reverse and take more hedging.

因此，這只是一種動態策略，每當我們看到長期租船所支付的費用高於我們現場的預期時，我們就會逆轉並採取更多對沖。

At the moment, we feel that spot markets are more beneficial and profitable than putting ships out, but that's something that's an ongoing thing for us.

目前，我們認為現貨市場比放船更有利、更有利可圖，但這對我們來說是一個持續的事情。

Same with selling of ships.

與出售船舶相同。

We have a clear strategy of trying to extract more lifetime out of our assets in general.

我們有一個明確的策略，試圖從我們的資產中獲得更長的使用壽命。

So we have quite a lot of initiatives ongoing so that the current asset base can hopefully trade longer by investing a bit more early and make them, if you like, more suitable for trading more than the regular period.

因此，我們正在進行許多舉措，以便當前的資產基礎有望透過更早投資來延長交易時間，如果您願意的話，可以使它們比常規時期更適合交易。

But again, for ships that we don't feel fit into our strategy or too old, we'll just continue to drop them off if we get the right prices for those particular assets.

但同樣，對於我們認為不適合我們的策略或太舊的船舶，如果我們為這些特定資產獲得合適的價格，我們將繼續放棄它們。

But there's so far, no, no problem trading a 15-, 16-year-old LR1.

但到目前為止，交易 15 年、16 年的 LR1 沒有任何問題。

So at what point is the vessel becoming a problem to trade now?

那麼，這艘船在什麼時候開始成為貿易問題呢？

So I think a lot of different views on this in general.

所以我認為總體上對此有很多不同的看法。

And different clients have different views on it.

而且不同的客戶對此有不同的看法。

But I think at least our experience is that when markets are high and the vessels are in proper technical condition, you can obviously push as far as you can, right?

但我認為至少我們的經驗是，當市場高位且船舶處於適當的技術狀態時，你顯然可以盡可能地推進，對吧？

So I don't think there's one particular threshold alone.

所以我認為不存在單獨一個特定的閾值。

I think one of the important criteria -- and Jens, you can maybe jump in here afterwards, if you want to -- so of course, that the environmental regulations and the various taxes that are now coming and being introduced over these years will, of course, make it more uneconomical for all the vessels in general to be competitive with modern ships.

我認為重要的標準之一 - 詹斯，如果你願意的話，你可以稍後跳到這裡 - 所以當然，這些年來即將出台和引入的環境法規和各種稅收將，當然，這使得所有船舶與現代船舶競爭變得更加不經濟。

And that's why we still have a strong focus of keeping a fleet of a relatively young age.

這就是為什麼我們仍然非常注重保持機隊年齡相對較小。

I mean, now it is 8.3 years.

我的意思是，現在已經8.3年了。

And I think around that level, we are super comfortable in the many years to come that we're going to have a competitive fleet.

我認為在這個水平上，我們對未來許多年將擁有一支有競爭力的機隊感到非常滿意。

Jens, I don't know if you want to add to that.

Jens，我不知道你是否想補充這一點。

I think you covered it, Mikael.

我想你已經涵蓋了，米凱爾。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Okay.

好的。

So I'm not actually seeing any more raised hand function.

所以我實際上沒有看到任何更多的舉手功能。

(Operator Instructions) Okay.

（操作員指示）好的。

So we've come to the end of today's presentation.

今天的演講到此結束。

Thank you for attending Hafnia's fourth-quarter 2023 financial results conference call.

感謝您參加 Hafnia 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。

You will find more information available online at www.hafniabw.com. Goodbye.

您可以在 www.hafniabw.com 上找到更多線上資訊。再見。