固安捷 (GWW) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the W.W. Grainger third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    各位好,歡迎參加 W.W. Grainger 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)提醒各位,本次會議正在錄音。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce Kyle Bland, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我榮幸地向大家介紹投資關係副總裁凱爾‧布蘭德。請繼續。

  • Kyle Bland - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Kyle Bland - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Good morning. Welcome to Grainger's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. With me are D.G. Macpherson, Chairman and CEO; and Dee Merriwether, Senior Vice President and CFO.

    早安.歡迎參加 Grainger 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。與我同行的還有董事長兼執行長 D.G. Macpherson;以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Dee Merriwether。

  • As a reminder, some of our comments today may include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is included in the company's most recent Form 8-K and other periodic reports filed with the SEC. This morning's call will focus on our non-GAAP adjusted results for the third quarter of 2025, which exclude the $196 million loss recognized from the pending sale of our UK-based Cromwell business and the proposed closure of our Zoro UK business.

    再次提醒各位,我們今天的一些評論可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響。有關可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息,請參閱公司最新的 8-K 表格以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他定期報告。今天早上的電話會議將重點討論我們 2025 年第三季的非 GAAP 調整後業績,其中不包括因出售我們位於英國的 Cromwell 業務和擬議關閉我們的 Zoro 英國業務而確認的 1.96 億美元損失。

  • Definitions and full reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures with their corresponding GAAP measures are found in the tables at the end of this presentation and in our earnings release, both of which are available on our IR website.

    本簡報末尾的表格和我們的獲利報告中提供了非GAAP財務指標的定義和與其對應的GAAP指標的完整調節表,這兩份文件均可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

  • We will also share results related to MonotaRO. Please remember that MonotaRO was a public company and files Japanese GAAP, which differs from US GAAP and is reported in our results one month in arrears. As a result, the number discussed will differ from MonotaRO's public statements.

    我們也將分享與 MonotaRO 相關的研究成果。請注意,MonotaRO 是一家上市公司,採用日本會計準則(Japanese GAAP),這與美國會計準則(US GAAP)不同,我們的業績報告會落後一個月公佈。因此,所討論的數字將與 MonotaRO 的公開聲明有所不同。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to D.G.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給D.G.。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Kyle. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. As headlined in the release, our third quarter results were fueled by consistently strong execution from our team. Despite the continued external uncertainty, our customers remained focused on improving their operations through increased efficiency and productivity. The value of the fundamentals of having inventory where and when they need it and a partner who understands their business and can bring the right solutions.

    謝謝你,凱爾。各位早安,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。如新聞稿所述,我們第三季的業績得益於團隊持續強勁的執行力。儘管外部環境持續存在不確定性,但我們的客戶仍然專注於透過提高效率和生產力來改善他們的營運。庫存能夠在需要的時候及時到位,以及擁有一個了解其業務並能提供合適解決方案的合作夥伴,這些都是至關重要的基本要素。

  • As I spent time in the market with large customers this past month, these themes ran true. I was proud to see Grainger deliver the critical fundamentals that help our customers every day. I recently had great discussions with an aerospace customer and municipality about how Grainger's deep-rooted inventory management expertise can save them time and reduce costs. I saw that when we deliver great service experience, customers take notice and it leads to more opportunities and deeper relationships.

    上個月我與大客戶一起在市場上拜訪時,這些主題都得到了印證。我很自豪地看到固安捷公司提供了每天幫助客戶的關鍵基礎服務。我最近與一家航空航太客戶和市政當局進行了很好的討論,探討了 Grainger 深厚的庫存管理專業知識如何幫助他們節省時間和降低成本。我發現,當我們提供優質的服務體驗時,客戶會注意到,這會帶來更多機會和更深層的關係。

  • I also had the opportunity to speak with several experts focused on technology. Tech and AI will continue to be an ongoing focus for Grainger, enabling us to provide great solutions for customers and drive productivity in our operations. The promise of these new transformation technologies has never been greater, but the key will be leveraging our proprietary data and know how to build solutions that connect to business processes and create a more seamless user experience. I'm excited about the work we're doing to bring more digital capabilities to both our customers and team members to make things better with every interaction.

    我還有機會與幾位專注於技術領域的專家進行了交流。科技和人工智慧將繼續是 Grainger 的重點發展方向,使我們能夠為客戶提供卓越的解決方案,並提高我們營運的生產力。這些新型轉型技術的潛力前所未有地巨大,但關鍵在於利用我們專有的數據和專業知識來建立能夠連接業務流程並創造更無縫用戶體驗的解決方案。我們正在努力為客戶和團隊成員帶來更多數位化能力,讓每一次互動都更加順暢,我對此感到非常興奮。

  • Making these better and staying focused on what matters is core to how Grainger operates, and we take that responsibility to heart in our communities as well. Last month, at our annual Bucket Build in Lake Forest, more than 500 Grainger team members came out to pack over 4,000 disaster relief kits. This included filling 5-gallon buckets with essential cleaning supplies and hand tools that will help families and individuals begin the process of recovery after a natural disaster. Grainger has a long-standing commitment to emergency preparedness and response efforts. And this is another reason I'm proud of how the Grainger team lives our principles every day.

    不斷改進並專注於重要的事情是 Grainger 營運的核心,我們也同樣將這項責任銘記於心,並積極回饋我們的社區。上個月,在我們於萊克福里斯特舉行的年度「水桶組裝」活動中,超過 500 名 Grainger 團隊成員前來打包了 4000 多個災難救援包。這其中包括用5加侖的水桶裝滿必要的清潔用品和手動工具,以幫助家庭和個人在自然災害後開始恢復過程。固安捷長期致力於緊急準備和應變工作。這也是我為 Grainger 團隊每天實踐我們的原則而感到自豪的另一個原因。

  • Now moving to our third-quarter results. We delivered a solid performance that in total outpaced our August formal guide, particularly on the gross margin line. Total company reported sales for the quarter were nearly $4.7 billion, up 6.1% on a reported basis or 5.4% on a daily constant currency basis. Gross margins for the company were 38.6%. Operating margins were 15.2%, and diluted EPS finished the quarter up $0.34 to $10.21.

    接下來來看我們第三季的業績。我們取得了穩健的業績,總體上超過了我們8月份的正式預期,尤其是在毛利率方面。該公司本季報告的總銷售額接近 47 億美元,按報告匯率計算成長 6.1%,以每日固定匯率計算成長 5.4%。該公司毛利率為 38.6%。營業利潤率為 15.2%,稀釋後每股收益本季成長 0.34 美元,達到 10.21 美元。

  • Operating cash flow came in at $597 million which allowed us to return a total of $399 million to Grainger shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our results continue to reflect tariff-related LIFO inventory valuation headwinds, consistent with what we discussed last quarter, which came in lighter than expected in the period. As Dee will discuss, without this LIFO impact, our operating margin would have increased year-over-year in the period.

    經營現金流為 5.97 億美元,透過股利和股票回購,我們向 Grainger 股東返還了總計 3.99 億美元。我們的業績繼續反映出關稅相關的後進先出法(LIFO)庫存估值逆風,這與我們上個季度討論的情況一致,但本季的逆風程度低於預期。正如迪伊將要討論的那樣,如果沒有這種後進先出法的影響,我們在此期間的營業利潤率將同比增長。

  • Looking ahead, while we're continuing to see more costs in the market, these LIFO headwinds will eventually dissipate as inflation cools and our gross margin will recover to our run rate expectation. As you likely saw, we recently announced that we've entered into an agreement to sell our UK-based Cromwell business and plan to fully exit the UK market. Given the economic dynamics post-Brexit, we had to alter our assumptions around the go-forward potential in the region. With this planned divestiture, we are now focused entirely on growing our North America and Japanese businesses where we can deliver the greatest long-term impact.

    展望未來,雖然我們繼續看到市場成本上升,但隨著通膨降溫,這些後進先出法帶來的不利因素最終會消散,我們的毛利率也將恢復到預期水準。正如您可能已經看到的,我們最近宣布已達成協議出售我們在英國的 Cromwell 業務,並計劃完全退出英國市場。鑑於英國脫歐後的經濟動態,我們不得不改變對該地區未來發展潛力的假設。透過此次計劃中的資產剝離,我們現在將全力發展我們在北美和日本的業務,以便在這些地區產生最大的長期影響。

  • Overall, while it has been an eventful few months, the business continues to perform well and in line with expectations. With this, we are narrowing our earnings outlook, which Dee will outline in a few minutes. It's important to note, we factored in the October headwind from last year's active hurricane season and an estimated impact from the government shutdown.

    整體而言,儘管過去幾個月發生了很多事,但公司業務表現依然良好,符合預期。因此,我們將縮小獲利預期範圍,Dee 將在幾分鐘後詳細說明。值得注意的是,我們已經考慮到了去年活躍的颶風季帶來的十月份的不利因素,以及政府停擺可能造成的影響。

  • As we wrap up 2025, I'm confident that we'll continue to serve our customers well, deliver on our financial commitments and drive solid results for all stakeholders.

    2025年即將結束,我相信我們將繼續為客戶提供優質服務,履行財務承諾,並為所有利害關係人帶來實際成果。

  • I will now turn it over to Dee to go through the details.

    現在我將把細節交給迪伊來介紹。

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, D.G. Turning to slide 7. You see the high-level third quarter results for the total company, including $4.7 billion in sales, up 5.4% on a daily constant currency basis. While gross margin finished ahead of our previously communicated expectations on a less-than-expected LIFO impact, we were still down 60 basis points year-over-year as segment mix headwinds and tariff-related cost impacts within the High-Touch business weighed on results. This led to total company operating margins of 15.2% for the quarter, down 40 basis points compared to 2024, but 70 basis points ahead of our communicated expectations. Diluted EPS for the quarter was $10.21, up $0.34 or 3.4% higher than the prior year period.

    謝謝,D.G.。請翻到第7張投影片。您可以看到該公司第三季的整體業績概覽,包括銷售額 47 億美元,以每日固定匯率計算成長 5.4%。儘管毛利率因後進先出法的影響小於預期而超出我們先前公佈的預期,但由於業務組合不利因素和高觸達業務中與關稅相關的成本影響,我們同比仍下降了 60 個基點。這使得該公司本季的總營業利潤率為 15.2%,比 2024 年下降了 40 個基點,但比我們公佈的預期高出 70 個基點。本季稀釋後每股收益為 10.21 美元,比去年同期成長 0.34 美元或 3.4%。

  • Moving to segment level results. The High-Touch Solutions segment delivered solid growth quarter. In total, sales were up 3.4% on both a reported and daily constant currency basis. Results were driven by volume growth and price inflation for the segment, with the latter improving as tariff costs continue to be passed.

    接下來查看細分市場層面的結果。高觸感解決方案業務板塊本季實現了穩健成長。以報告匯率和每日固定匯率計算,總銷售額成長了 3.4%。該細分市場的銷售成長和價格上漲推動了業績成長,隨著關稅成本的持續轉嫁,價格上漲的情況有所改善。

  • From an end market perspective, our indicators suggest that the MRO market remained muted as the heightened inflationary environment continued to weigh on demand. For Grainger specifically, we saw strong performance with contractor and health care customers and improving results with manufacturing customers which helped to offset slower growth in other areas of the business.

    從終端市場角度來看,我們的指標表明,由於通膨環境持續高企,需求承壓,MRO市場仍然低迷。具體到 Grainger 公司而言,我們在承包商和醫療保健客戶方面表現出色,在製造業客戶方面也取得了進步,這有助於抵消其他業務領域成長放緩的影響。

  • For the segment, gross profit margin finished the quarter at 41.1% and down 50 basis points versus prior year, driven by similar things to what we discussed last quarter. We saw negative but improving price/cost spread as we progress negotiations with suppliers through the quarter and pass incremental price in September. Further, we pulled through LIFO to reflect the impact of supplier cost increases, albeit less than expected as certain increases were pushed into latter periods. These two tariff-related headwinds were only partially offset by mix and freight. I would note that if we excluded our LIFO headwind and wanted to compare across our peer set, which report on FIFO, our implied FIFO gross margin rate would have increased year over year.

    該業務類股本季毛利率為 41.1%,較上年同期下降 50 個基點,原因與我們上季討論的原因類似。我們看到價格/成本價差為負,但隨著本季與供應商的談判不斷推進,價格/成本價差有所改善,並在9月份通過了增量價格。此外,我們採用後進先出法來反映供應商成本上漲的影響,儘管由於某些成本上漲被推遲到後期,實際影響小於預期。關稅相關的這兩個不利因素僅被產品組合和貨運價格的部分優勢所抵銷。我想指出的是,如果我們排除後進先出法(LIFO)帶來的不利影響,並與採用先進先出法(FIFO)的同行進行比較,那麼我們隱含的先進先出法毛利率將逐年提高。

  • On SG&A, margin improved in the period as continued investments in our seller initiatives and marketing were more than offset by productivity and sales leverage. Taking all this together, operating margin for the segment finished at 17.2%, down 40 basis points versus the prior year quarter.

    銷售、一般及行政費用方面,由於對銷售人員計劃和行銷的持續投資被生產力和銷售槓桿作用所抵消,本期利潤率有所提高。綜合所有因素,該業務部門的營業利潤率為 17.2%,比上年同期下降 40 個基點。

  • Now focusing on the Endless Assortment segment. Sales increased 18.2% on a reported basis or 14.6% on a daily constant currency basis, which normalizes for the FX tailwinds realized in the period. Zoro US was up 17.8%, while MonotaRO achieved 12.6% growth in local days, local constant currency. At the business level, Zoro continues its momentum driving efficiencies with marketing spend and working to further enhance the customer experience, including improved search, better fulfillment and continued optimization of their assortment.

    現在專注於「無限品類」板塊。以報告數據計算,銷售額增長了 18.2%;以每日固定匯率計算,銷售額增長了 14.6%,這已剔除了該期間實現的匯率利好因素。Zoro US 上漲了 17.8%,而 MonotaRO 以當地天數和當地固定匯率計算實現了 12.6% 的增長。在業務層面,Zoro 持續保持成長勢頭,提高行銷支出效率,並致力於進一步提升客戶體驗,包括改善搜尋、更好地履行訂單以及持續優化產品組合。

  • Taken together, these actions are driving strong growth from its core B2B customers, along with improving customer retention rates. At MonotaRO, sales growth remained strong with continued growth from enterprise customers, coupled with acquisition and repeat purchase rates with small and midsized businesses.

    綜合來看,這些措施正在推動其核心 B2B 客戶實現強勁成長,同時提高客戶留存率。MonotaRO 的銷售成長依然強勁,這得益於企業客戶的持續成長,以及中小企業的收購率和重複購買率。

  • On profitability, operating margins increased by 100 basis points to 9.8%, with favorability across the segment. MonotaRO margins remained strong at 13.2%, up 80 basis points and Zoro margin improved to 5.8%, up 150 basis points, with both businesses benefiting from gross margin flow-through and healthy top-line leverage. Overall, we had another strong quarter across Endless Assortment, and we expect the team will carry this momentum forward as we wrap up the year.

    在獲利能力方面,營業利潤率提高了 100 個基點,達到 9.8%,各業務部門均呈現良好成長動能。MonotaRO 的利潤率保持強勁,達到 13.2%,成長 80 個基點;Zoro 的利潤率提高到 5.8%,成長 150 個基點,兩項業務均受益於毛利率的傳遞和健康的營收槓桿。總體而言,Endless Assortment 又迎來了一個強勁的季度,我們預計團隊將在年底前保持這種勢頭。

  • Before moving into guidance, I wanted to share a brief update on where we're at with tariffs. In the third quarter, we remain engaged in active dialogue with our supplier partners and use our September price increases to help offset continued cost pressure. While our initial pricing actions back in May only apply to a small portion of our products, largely those where Grainger imports the product directly, the September increase was much broader and included initial pricing actions on supplier imported products, where we had finalized negotiations.

    在給予指導意見之前,我想先簡單介紹一下關稅方面的最新進展。第三季度,我們繼續與供應商夥伴保持積極對話,並利用9月份的價格上漲來幫助抵消持續的成本壓力。雖然我們五月的初步定價措施只適用於我們的一小部分產品,主要是 Grainger 直接進口的產品,但九月份的提價範圍更廣,包括對供應商進口產品的初步定價措施,而我們已經就這些產品的定價進行了最終談判。

  • As we move into the fourth quarter, we're seeing inflationary pressure continuing to build, including impacts from the recent Section 232 expansion. As a result, we are taking some incremental pricing actions to better align price/cost timing as the tariff landscape unfolds. These actions are only modest in nature, but are in addition to the price passed earlier in the year.

    隨著我們進入第四季度,我們看到通膨壓力持續增加,其中包括最近第 232 條款擴展帶來的影響。因此,隨著關稅情勢的變化,我們將採取一些漸進式定價措施,以更好地調整價格/成本時間。這些措施雖然規模不大,但卻是今年稍早通過的價格政策之外的額外舉措。

  • On profitability expectations for the fourth quarter, we anticipate gross margins will improve sequentially with our normal seasonal recovery and improving price costs. The LIFO impact is expected to be roughly consistent quarter over quarter.

    對於第四季的獲利預期,我們預計隨著正常的季節性復甦和價格成本的改善,毛利率將比去年同期增加。預計後進先出法的影響將大致維持在季度間的穩定。

  • Looking ahead, based upon what we're hearing from suppliers as part of our annual cost cycle, we expect further inflationary pressure into 2026. With this, assuming no further material changes to the current tariff landscape, we are -- we now anticipate the inventory accounting dynamics from LIFO will persist over the next couple of quarters until inflation cools.

    展望未來,根據我們在年度成本週期中從供應商那裡了解到的情況,我們預計到 2026 年通膨壓力將進一步加劇。由此,假設當前的關稅環境沒有進一步的實質變化,我們現在預計,後進先出法的庫存會計動態將在未來幾季持續存在,直到通貨膨脹降溫。

  • That being said, consistent with our long-term earnings framework, we anticipate gross margin will stabilize around 39% for the total company, subject to normal quarterly seasonality. While we will experience continued segment mix headwinds and some pressure within a subset of our private label assortment, these will be offset as price/cost normalizes back to neutral and the LIFO impact subsides.

    也就是說,根據我們的長期獲利框架,我們預期公司整體毛利率將穩定在 39% 左右,但會受到正常的季度季節性影響。雖然我們將繼續面臨細分市場組合方面的不利因素,並且部分自有品牌產品組合也會面臨一些壓力,但隨著價格/成本恢復正常並回到中性水平,以及後進先出法的影響減弱,這些不利因素將被抵消。

  • On LIFO specifically, we thought it would be helpful to provide a view of how inventory accounting dynamics impact our gross margin over time, especially because of how the cycle is playing out relative to 2022. While LIFO expense is always a drag relative to implied FIFO margins, it's not typically a material impact in every period depending on what else is impacting our gross margin results.

    具體來說,關於後進先出法,我們認為有必要說明庫存會計動態如何隨著時間的推移影響我們的毛利率,尤其是在 2022 年的周期性變化方面。雖然後進先出法 (LIFO) 的費用相對於先進先出法 (FIFO) 的隱含利潤率總是會造成拖累,但通常情況下,它不會在每個時期都產生重大影響,這取決於還有哪些因素會影響我們的毛利率結果。

  • As you can see on slide 12, during periods of normal cost inflation, the LIFO headwind, the difference between LIFO margin and the implied FIFO margin is roughly 20 to 30 basis points, reflecting the real-time impact of higher costs flowing through our P&L. As we enter into a heightened inflationary cycle, like what we see in 2022, and like what we're seeing again today, this LIFO impact becomes more pronounced as the difference in COGS diverges between the two inventory methodologies. However, as inflation cools, the LIFO expense will normalize, LIFO and FIFO margins will converge. And as this happens and we pass further price, our reported margin will recover. With this, we expect our total company gross margins will stabilize around 39%, consistent with our long-term earnings framework.

    如您在投影片 12 中看到的,在正常成本通膨時期,後進先出法 (LIFO) 的不利影響,後進先出法利潤率與隱含先進先出法 (FIFO) 利潤率之間的差異約為 20 至 30 個基點,反映了成本上升對我們損益表的即時影響。隨著我們進入通膨加劇的周期,就像我們在 2022 年看到的那樣,也像我們今天再次看到的那樣,後進先出法的影響會變得更加明顯,因為兩種庫存方法之間的銷貨成本差異會越來越大。然而,隨著通貨膨脹降溫,後進先出法 (LIFO) 的費用將趨於正常,後進先出法和先進先出法 (FIFO) 的利潤率將趨於一致。隨著這種情況的發生和價格的進一步上漲,我們公佈的利潤率將會恢復。由此,我們預計公司整體毛利率將穩定在 39% 左右,這與我們的長期獲利框架相符。

  • Now moving to the updated outlook for the remainder of 2025. As D.G. mentioned at the beginning of the call, we're narrowing our full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook, which reflects slightly lower sales to account for the Cromwell divestiture updates and the impact of the government shutdown, which we're assuming reaches a resolution by mid-November. These top-line headwinds are offset by higher margins, resulting in an EPS midpoint consistent with the prior guide. In total, the updated guide includes daily organic constant currency sales growth of between 4.4% and 5.1% and a diluted adjusted EPS range of $39 to $39.75. If you squeeze to the annual guide to get an implied fourth quarter, the revised revenue outlook implies a Q4 daily organic constant currency growth rate of 4% at the midpoint, which assumes more than 3 points of price contribution to revenue within the High-Touch segment.

    現在來看看2025年剩餘時間的最新展望。正如 D.G. 在電話會議開始時提到的那樣,我們正在縮小 2025 年全年調整後每股收益預期,這反映出銷售額略有下降,以反映 Cromwell 資產剝離的最新進展以及政府停擺的影響,我們假設政府停擺將在 11 月中旬得到解決。這些營收方面的不利因素被更高的利潤率所抵消,使得每股收益中位數與先前的預期一致。整體而言,更新後的業績指引預期每日有機銷售額(以固定匯率計算)將成長4.4%至5.1%,稀釋後調整每股盈餘預計為39美元至39.75美元。若將預測範圍縮小至年度業績指引,則第四季營收預期中位數為4%(以固定匯率計算),此預期假設高觸達細分市場的價格貢獻率超過3個百分點。

  • October growth is off to a slow start of approximately 1% on a preliminary daily constant currency basis as we lapped a fairly significant hurricane-related benefit in the first two weeks of the month and as we face current year headwinds from the government shutdown. However, if we just looked at the last two weeks of the month, which excludes the prior year hurricane impact, October total company sales are up in the 4% to 5% range on a daily constant currency basis, more in line with what we saw in the third quarter, but still reflecting the impact of the government shutdown, which is weighing on public sector sales. Annual margin expectations have increased from our previous guide due to improved price/cost and LIFO timing. If you were to squeeze the implied operating margins from the updated annual guide and focus on the fourth quarter, it shows a sequential step down in the fourth quarter to around 14.5% at the midpoint. While the puts and takes are different, this sequential movement is roughly in line with normal seasonality. Overall, despite the tariff-related noise over the last couple of quarters, we remain poised to deliver a solid year.

    10 月經濟成長開局緩慢,以固定匯率計算,初步每日成長率約為 1%,原因是本月前兩週我們已從颶風帶來的相當可觀的利好中恢復過來,而且今年還面臨著政府停擺帶來的不利影響。然而,如果我們只看當月的最後兩週(不包括去年颶風的影響),10 月份公司總銷售額按每日固定匯率計算增長了 4% 至 5%,更接近第三季度的情況,但仍然反映了政府停擺的影響,這給公共部門的銷售帶來了壓力。由於價格/成本和後進先出法(LIFO)時機的改善,年度利潤率預期會比我們先前的預期有所提高。如果從更新後的年度指引中得出隱含的營業利潤率,並重點關注第四季度,則顯示第四季度營業利潤率環比下降,中位數約為 14.5%。雖然賣出和賣出有所不同,但這種順序變化大致符合正常的季節性規律。總體而言,儘管過去幾個季度關稅相關因素帶來了一些幹擾,但我們仍有望實現穩健的年度業績。

  • Before I hand it back to D.G., I thought it would be important to reiterate our long-term earnings framework in light of the recent tariff uncertainty and as we look ahead. While we have made some minor edits to CapEx to reflect the latest estimates around our global DC expansion, the core tenets of our framework remains solidly intact. We remain confident we can drive share gain in the US, while the EA business in the teens, stabilize total company gross margins around 39% and grow SG&A slower than sales through process improvements and technology. Taken together, these actions will drive attractive returns, and we remain well positioned to deliver great results for our shareholders for the years to come.

    在將文件交還給D.G.之前,我認為有必要鑑於最近的關稅不確定性以及展望未來,重申我們的長期盈利框架。雖然我們對資本支出進行了一些小的調整,以反映我們全球資料中心擴張的最新估算,但我們框架的核心原則仍然完好無損。我們仍有信心在美國市場取得市場佔有率成長,同時將EA業務的成長率維持在十幾個百分點,透過流程改善和技術手段,將公司整體毛利率穩定在39%左右,並將銷售、一般及行政費用成長速度降低到低於銷售額的成長速度。綜合來看,這些舉措將帶來可觀的回報,我們將繼續保持良好的發展動能,在未來幾年為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to D.G for some closing remarks.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給D.G,請他作總結發言。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Dee. As we head into the final months the year, our team will continue to navigate the complex environment and deliver value for our customers, our communities and our shareholders. And as Dee mentioned, we continue to work through this inflationary environment and the challenges from the government shutdown. And while there is some short-term noise, we remain confident in our ability to pass through cost increases and achieve the core tenets of our long-term earnings framework. We'll continue to stay focused on driving strong execution, providing industry-leading service and building innovative capabilities to deliver on what matters most to our stakeholders.

    謝謝你,迪。隨著我們進入今年的最後幾個月,我們的團隊將繼續應對複雜的環境,為我們的客戶、社區和股東創造價值。正如迪伊所提到的那樣,我們仍在努力應對當前的通貨膨脹環境和政府停擺的挑戰。儘管短期內存在一些波動,但我們仍然有信心將成本上漲轉嫁出去,並實現我們長期獲利框架的核心原則。我們將繼續專注於推動強有力的執行,提供業界領先的服務,並建立創新能力,以實現利害關係人最關心的目標。

  • And with that, we will open it up to Q&A.

    接下來,我們將進入問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) David Manthey, Baird.

    (操作說明)David Manthey,Baird。

  • David Manthey - Analyst

    David Manthey - Analyst

  • All right. That was a very clear presentation of the business. Thanks for outlining all of that data. Question on the 2025 guidance and the Cromwell. So Cromwell is held for sale as of September 30, so I assume you're taking any assumption out for that.

    好的。那份業務介紹非常清晰明了。感謝您提供所有這些數據。關於 2025 年指導原則和克倫威爾的問題。所以克倫威爾莊園自9月30日起開始出售,所以我假設你已經排除了任何相關的假設。

  • And just ballpark-ish, we talking about $75 million, $80 million, I'm guessing. And then from an operating income standpoint, those Cromwell operating losses are pretty immaterial. Is that all correct?

    粗略估計一下,大概是 7,500 萬美元到 8,000 萬美元吧。從營業收入的角度來看,克倫威爾的這些營業虧損微不足道。都正確嗎?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So two things I'd point you at. We kind of adjusted for the Cromwell impact. And if you go back to the press release that we issued around our proposal to exit the UK in total and incorporated both that impact as well as the impact that's being proposed for Zoro UK. So in total, it's about $40 million.

    是的。所以我想指出兩點。我們對克倫威爾的影響做出了一些調整。如果你回顧我們之前發布的關於我們完全退出英國的提案的新聞稿,其中既包含了退出英國的影響,也包含了擬議的對 Zoro UK 的影響。所以總共大約是 4000 萬美元。

  • David Manthey - Analyst

    David Manthey - Analyst

  • That's $40 million in revenues for Cromwell and Zoro UK as held for sale in the fourth quarter?

    那是不是意味著 Cromwell 和 Zoro UK 在第四季度持有待售股份的收入為 4000 萬美元?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • David Manthey - Analyst

    David Manthey - Analyst

  • Okay. All right. And then on the pricing actions that you've taken thus far in the fourth-quarter 2025, should we assume that those are in Endless Assortment? I think you said your next opportunity to adjust contract pricing on High-Touch customers would be January 1. So is that another bite at the apple when we turn the page to 2026?

    好的。好的。那麼,關於您在 2025 年第四季迄今採取的定價措施,我們是否可以假設這些措施都屬於「無限組合」計畫?我想您說過,您下次調整高觸達客戶合約價格的機會將在 1 月 1 日。那麼,當我們翻開新的一頁,展望 2026 年時,是否還有另一個機會呢?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No. We -- obviously, the actions we've taken were September 1. Those have flowed into the fourth quarter, and that was a normal price cycle increase. And November 1, now we're taking another one, and that will flow into contracts as well as noncontract business, and that's all High-Touch related. Zoro has had good price inflation this year based on some strategic changes they've made.

    不。顯然,我們採取的行動是在9月1日。這些因素都反映在了第四季度,這是正常的物價週期上漲。從 11 月 1 日起,我們將採取另一項措施,這將影響合約和非合約業務,而這一切都與高觸達服務有關。由於採取了一些策略調整,Zoro今年的價格上漲情況良好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

    克里斯多福‧史奈德,摩根士丹利。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • Sorry, I was on mute. So you guys said that, I guess, ex LIFO, the gross margin would have been up year-on-year, which I guess implies a LIFO headwind of something at least 70 basis points. I guess my question is, you guys are kind of saying you'll maintain a roughly 39% gross margin through these LIFO headwinds. So I guess as the LIFO headwinds go away, does that 39% go to something closer to 40%, just assuming that we're in a 70 bps LIFO headwind backdrop?

    抱歉,我剛才靜音了。所以你們說,我猜,如果剔除後進先出法(LIFO),毛利率會同比增長,我猜這意味著後進先出法(LIFO)至少會帶來 70 個基點的不利影響。我想問的是,你們的意思是說,即使面臨後進先出法帶來的不利影響,你們也能維持大約 39% 的毛利率嗎?所以我想,隨著後進先出(LIFO)政策不利因素的消失,假設我們處於 70 個基點的後進先出(LIFO)政策不利因素背景下,39% 會不會接近 40%?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks for the question, Chris. So as we've noted during this period of time when we are comparing our results versus those who may be reporting on FIFO, we do have more of a negative impact directly related to the LIFO impact on gross margins. And so what we attempted to do here with our information is to recast and imply FIFO gross margin number for Grainger for more easily -- easy comparability. But as you know, as we go through the cycle and others eat through the less expensive FIFO layers, and we're already there with LIFO, we believe gross margins will become a little bit tougher for them. And we -- as we pass -- continue to pass price, our gross margins will continue to elevate, as you noted.

    謝謝你的提問,克里斯。因此,正如我們在此期間所注意到的,當我們把我們的結果與那些可能採用先進先出法 (FIFO) 進行報告的公司進行比較時,我們發現,後進先出法 (LIFO) 對毛利率的直接負面影響更大。因此,我們嘗試利用這些信息,重新計算並推導出 Grainger 的先進先出毛利率,以便更容易進行比較。但如您所知,隨著我們經歷經濟週期,其他企業蠶食成本較低的先進先出(FIFO)環節,而我們已經在後進先出(LIFO)環節佔據了優勢,我們相信他們的毛利率將會變得更加難以維持。正如您所指出的,隨著我們繼續降低價格,我們的毛利率也將繼續提高。

  • However, there are more things besides LIFO that impacts gross margin. Product mix, freight and other areas where we receive -- where we're gaining some favorability, we deem that -- some of those things may not be as favorable in the future as price becomes more favorable. And so that's why we stick to a longer range outlook of around 39% or around the area of 39%. That doesn't mean it can't be a couple of basis points better than that in the future. We just don't want to project out too much because all the information we have today around tariffs and other cost inflation is what we have to use to project from this point.

    然而,除了後進先出法之外,還有更多因素會影響毛利率。產品組合、運費以及其他我們獲得優勢的領域——我們認為,隨著價格變得更加有利,其中一些方面未來可能不再那麼有利。所以這就是為什麼我們堅持將長期預期維持在 39% 左右的原因。但這並不意味著未來它不能比現在好幾個基點。我們不想做太多預測,因為我們目前掌握的有關關稅和其他成本上漲的所有信息,就是我們進行未來預測的全部依據。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • I appreciate that. That was helpful. I guess, if we look at the Q4 guide, overall company up 4%. So High-Touch, I guess, would be below that, maybe something more like 3%, which is effectively all priced. So it seems like the guide is calling for no volume growth within High-Touch.

    我很感激。那很有幫助。我想,如果我們看一下第四季業績指引,公司整體成長了 4%。所以,我想,高觸感服務應該會低於這個水平,可能更接近 3%,這實際上已經全部定價了。所以看來該指南要求高觸達業務不要實現業務量成長。

  • I mean I know the backdrop has been challenged for a while, but that business has continued to grow volumes even if modestly through the first 3 quarters of the year. So is that step down in Q4 to maybe zero just all because of these government contracts and the risk associated with that? Or is there also maybe macro softening alongside that? Any color there would be helpful.

    我的意思是,我知道市場環境已經面臨挑戰一段時間了,但即便今年前三個季度增速不大,該業務的銷量仍然持續增長。所以,第四季業績下滑甚至可能降至零,只是因為這些政府合約以及與之相關的風險嗎?或者,是否也存在宏觀經濟疲軟的因素?任何顏色都會有所幫助。

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. In Q4, we have two challenges, one of which you called out, which is the impact to our business related to the government shutdown. And the other one related to the benefit received in the prior year in October related to the hurricane. We range bound that last year of about $30 million, $40 million in the month of October. So that's also a challenge that we're cycling in Q4.

    是的。第四季度,我們面臨兩大挑戰,其中之一您也提到了,那就是政府停擺對我們業務的影響。另一項則與去年10月份因颶風而獲得的補助有關。我們估計去年10月份的收入約為3000萬美元至4000萬美元。所以這也是我們在第四季要應對的一個挑戰。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • The one thing I'd also point out is if you look at October by segment, which we don't typically talk about, but government has obviously impacted substantially. Everything else looks normal effectively. So it is mostly -- it is entirely just the government impact that we're seeing from both the hurricane, which affects state governments, three states that obviously in the Southeast that were hit hardest last year and then the federal government given the shutdown.

    我還要指出一點,如果你按行業細分來看十月份的情況(我們通常不會談論這一點),但政府顯然產生了重大影響。其他一切看起來都很正常。所以,我們看到的主要是──完全是政府的影響,一方面是颶風對州政府的影響,顯然東南部的三個州去年受災最嚴重,另一方面是聯邦政府的停擺。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jacob Levinson, Melius Research.

    Jacob Levinson,Melius Research。

  • Jacob Levinson - Analyst

    Jacob Levinson - Analyst

  • I realize there are some advantages on the tax front using LIFO inventories, but I wanted to ask if there's been any discussion in terms of shifting the FIFO. It just seems like the last couple of years, we've seen a lot of companies that had LIFO accounting actually moving to FIFO just given maybe a stickier inflation backdrop.

    我知道在稅務方面使用後進先出法(LIFO)庫存有一些優勢,但我想問一下是否有人討論過將庫存調整為先進先出法(FIFO)。似乎在過去幾年裡,我們看到許多採用後進先出法(LIFO)會計的公司實際上都轉向了先進先出法(FIFO),這可能是由於通膨環境更加嚴峻所致。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, yes. So we obviously have talked about and evaluated. I mean the thing you need to probably realize is if you make that change, you end up having a cash payment, not an earnings payment, but a cash payment effectively for the accumulated taxes you saved at whatever tax rate is today. So it's not an inconsequential number. So we need to weigh that versus the benefit of being on FIFO and having easy compares.

    是的,是的。所以我們顯然已經討論和評估過了。我的意思是,你可能需要意識到的是,如果你做出這樣的改變,最終你會得到一筆現金,而不是收入,而是相當於你按當前稅率節省下來的累計稅款的現金。所以這並非一個無關緊要的數字。所以我們需要權衡一下這種做法與先進先出法(FIFO)以及便於比較的好處之間的關係。

  • Right now, we're not going to make that change. We might in the future.

    目前,我們不打算做出這樣的改變。未來或許會。

  • Jacob Levinson - Analyst

    Jacob Levinson - Analyst

  • Okay. That makes sense. And then just on the government shutdown, I realize these are unfortunately becoming more regular occurrences. But in your experience, is there normally some catch-up in demand once the shutdown is over? Because I'd imagine a lot of these facilities are just mothballed right now.

    好的。這很有道理。然後,就在政府停擺這件事上,我意識到不幸的是,這種情況正變得越來越頻繁。但根據您的經驗,一旦停工結束,需求通常會回升嗎?因為我估計現在很多這樣的設施都處於閒置狀態。

  • So once you ramp back up, maybe there's some pent-up demand there.

    所以一旦產能恢復,或許就能釋放出一些被壓抑的需求。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So what I would say is the nature of the shutdown and this one in particular, obviously, some of the nonmilitary entities that we would serve are completely shut down. Typically, you wouldn't see much of a catch-up from those. But we also are seeing this impact given the lack of the number of people who are furloughed and purchasing people who are furloughed. We're seeing a little bit of slowdown in military and other areas as well.

    是的。所以我想說的是,這次停擺的性質,尤其是這次停擺,很明顯,我們服務的一些非軍事實體已經完全停擺了。通常情況下,你不會看到這些人有太大的追趕機會。但我們也看到了這種影響,因為被暫時解僱的人數減少了,而購買商品的人員也處於被暫時解僱的狀態。我們看到軍事和其他領域的發展速度也略有放緩。

  • And so some of that may come back, but typically, it wouldn't all come back. You see a little bit of it maybe come back if there's catch-up projects they stop doing. But we would expect something between zero and something not huge to come back on that.

    所以有些東西可能會回來,但通常情況下,不會全部回來。如果他們停止進行一些追趕性項目,你可能會看到一些成果回歸。但我們預期得到的回覆會在零到不太大的結果之間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

    瑞安·默克爾,威廉·布萊爾。

  • Ryan Merkel - Equity Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Equity Analyst

  • Just sticking with the government. Did you guys size what the impact you expect in 4Q is from the government shutdown?

    就支持政府。你們有沒有估算過政府停擺對第四季的影響?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I mean, basically, the way to think about that is every day, 1 point or more impact on our total business. And so if it goes six weeks, it will be 0.5 point. If it goes all the time, it will be 1 point or more impact. That's what we've seen so far.

    是的。我的意思是,基本上,可以這樣想:每天,都會對我們的整體業務產生 1 個百分點或更多的影響。所以如果持續六週,就得0.5分。如果一直這樣,就會產生 1 分或更多的影響。這就是我們目前所看到的。

  • I would say that if it doesn't get resolved, it could become even bigger if it goes on a long time. But that's what we typically would see and expect to see now.

    我認為,如果這個問題無法解決,而且持續時間過長,可能會演變成更大的問題。但這正是我們現在通常會看到和期望看到的。

  • Ryan Merkel - Equity Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And then it sounds like put through another price increase in 4Q, and that would be off cycle for you, which I think I thought you were trying to stick to the national account timing there. So is that sort of a change in how you're doing things? Or why the off-cycle price increase?

    好的。知道了。聽起來你們打算在第四季再提價,這對你們來說就不是正常週期了,我以為你們是想按照全國客戶的時間安排來調整的。所以,這是你們做事方式上的改變嗎?或者,為什麼會出現非週期性的價格上漲?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think a lot of this is just probabilistic. So when tariffs first hit, we actually didn't know how they would play out and we didn't want to get out in front of it. So we've been actually taking price increases when we have cost increases as opposed to speculatively. And there's been over 1,000 negotiations with our suppliers at this point often. That's not normal for the record.

    我認為這其中很多都只是機率問題。所以當關稅第一次生效時,我們其實並不知道它們會如何發展,我們也不想搶先一步。所以,我們實際上是在成本上漲時才提高價格,而不是進行投機性上漲。到目前為止,我們已經與供應商進行了超過 1000 次談判。就記錄而言,這並不正常。

  • And so what we saw was a number of cost increases come in after -- between the time we set the 9/1 prices and the time we would now. And so what we've done is we've raised price to compensate for that, and we think it's the right thing to do, and our customers understand that.

    因此,我們看到的是,在我們設定 9 月 1 日價格到現在這段時間裡,出現了一系列成本上漲。因此,我們提高了價格來彌補損失,我們認為這樣做是正確的,我們的客戶也理解這一點。

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And I would just add, a lot of that is price changes and corrections based upon what we're seeing in the marketplace. So I wouldn't assume that, that change was as big as like the 5/1 change as an example.

    我還要補充一點,很多時候價格會根據我們在市場上看到的情況進行調整和修正。所以我不會假設,這種變化就像 5/1 的變化那麼大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

    Stephen Volkmann,傑富瑞集團。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Great. And apologies for beating this dead horse, D.G. But the price increase in November, was there any aspect of that, that would be -- I think your word was speculative? Did you try to get ahead of any of this?

    偉大的。D.G.,很抱歉我又老生常談了。但是11月份的價格上漲,其中是否有任何方面——我想你剛才用的是推測性的說法?你有沒有嘗試提前應付這一切?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, it's not speculative. It's just matching what we're seeing and what we're seeing in the market. we're sticking to our pricing tenants, which are basically priced to market at this point.

    不,這不是推測。這只是與我們目前觀察到的情況以及市場行情相符。我們堅持對租戶的定價,目前這些租金基本上是以市價計算的。

  • Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

    Stephen Volkmann - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then I think you also talked about in your private label business, some headwinds, competitive kind of headwinds. How does that play out? Or what can you do to sort of address that going forward?

    好的。偉大的。然後,我想你也談到了你的自有品牌業務面臨的一些不利因素,競爭方面的不利因素。結果會如何呢?或者,今後您可以採取哪些措施來解決這個問題?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we don't think we're uniquely exposed or at competitive disadvantage in private brand. But what has happened with some of the larger tariffs is the difference between a private brand product, in some cases, and the national brand product can become very tight. And so then we have decisions to make as to how much price we take in those situations. And so we're still working through all of that. It's a subset of our private brand.

    嗯,我們並不認為我們在自有品牌方面面臨獨特的風險或處於競爭劣勢。但一些較大關稅導致自有品牌產品與國家品牌產品之間的價格差異在某些情況下變得非常小。因此,在這種情況下,我們需要決定我們願意付出多大的代價。所以,我們仍在努力解決所有這些問題。這是我們自有品牌的子集。

  • It's not -- all of them, it's not a huge portion of them, but for some of those cases, we have to decide how we treat those strategically.

    並不是所有情況都是如此,也不是很大一部分情況都是如此,但對於某些情況,我們必須決定如何從戰略上處理這些情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer & Company.

    克里斯托弗·格林,奧本海默公司。

  • Christopher Glynn - Analyst

    Christopher Glynn - Analyst

  • So I appreciate the comments at the beginning on how you're looking at AI and adopting new technology. You've always been very tech forward and investing at scale. And so I'm curious what you're envisioning with that from both sides, commercially layering into the outgrowth algorithm versus the cost of serve side and margin potential.

    我很欣賞您一開始對人工智慧和新技術應用的看法。你一直非常注重技術創新和規模投資。所以我很好奇,從商業角度來看,你對這方面的想像是什麼?是將成長演算法融入商業層面,還是服務端的成本與利潤潛力?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I think -- so what I would say is it's going to require all of the above to be successful long term, we think. And we have been out in front in certain areas with AI, thinking about back-end processing and customer service in those areas that are kind of obvious to attack. I don't -- everybody is going to be doing those things is my expectation. And so creating advantage is probably going to be more on the commercial side and leveraging our data, our product, our customer data to create solutions that provide better experiences for customers.

    是的。我認為──所以我想說的是,要想取得長期的成功,以上所有因素都需要具備。我們在人工智慧的某些領域一直處於領先地位,思考後端處理和客戶服務等那些顯而易見的攻擊領域。我不這麼認為——我的預期是每個人都會做這些事。因此,創造優勢可能更體現在商業方面,利用我們的數據、產品和客戶數據來創造能夠為客戶提供更好體驗的解決方案。

  • And so we are investing heavily there as well. We think both areas are going to be critical to our success.

    因此,我們也在那裡投入了大量資金。我們認為這兩個領域對我們的成功至關重要。

  • Christopher Glynn - Analyst

    Christopher Glynn - Analyst

  • Great. And then last quarter, you mentioned elevated bidding activity for your new large business. Curious how that pipeline is playing out? And should we think of that as incrementally constructive to the outgrowth algorithm perhaps for interim period?

    偉大的。上個季度,您提到您的新大業務的競標活動有所增加。很好奇這條管道的進展如何?我們是否應該認為,在過渡時期內,這對於演算法的改進具有漸進式的建設性作用?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, we think we're doing well. I don't know that I'd say it's constructive for the outgrowth at this point, but we think things are going well on that front. And you probably know in our business, having big contracts and getting all the volume are two different things sometimes. And so you have to have the contracts and then you have to win at the local level, and we know that. And so that's really how we construct our business and our focus.

    是的,我們認為我們做得很好。我不知道這是否對未來的發展有建設性作用,但我們認為這方面進展順利。你可能也知道,在我們這個行業,簽下大合約和獲得全部銷售有時是兩回事。所以你必須先拿到合同,然後在地方層面上贏得比賽,我們都知道這一點。所以,這就是我們建構業務和聚焦重點的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Newman, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Ken Newman,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • Ken Newman - Equity Analyst

    Ken Newman - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe first, just to clarify, sorry if I missed this in response to Dave's first question, but any help on just how to think about the operating profit or loss in the other segment now that Cromwell is divested. Is that segment going to be profitable in 4Q? Or just how do you think about that normalize into next year?

    首先,澄清一下,如果我錯過了對戴夫第一個問題的回复,請見諒。現在克倫威爾已經剝離,關於如何考慮另一個部門的營業利潤或虧損,有什麼建議嗎?該業務板塊在第四季會獲利嗎?或者,您認為這種情況明年會如何恢復正常?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Okay. So the exiting the UK, it shows up in two areas. It shows up in other kind of where Cromwell was, and that's the vast majority of it and a little bit in EA because that was the Zoro UK business. So that will positively contribute once we close the deal from a profitability perspective.

    好的。所以,離開英國這件事,主要體現在兩個方面。它出現在克倫威爾所在的其他地區,而且大部分都在那裡,EA 中也有一點,因為那是 Zoro 英國的業務。因此,從獲利角度來看,一旦交易完成,這將產生正面影響。

  • And it's like in the teens from an operating -- not in the teens, 20-or-so basis point improvement in operating margin.

    營業利潤率提高了大約 20 個基點,而不是十幾個基點。

  • Ken Newman - Equity Analyst

    Ken Newman - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then for the follow-up here, it looks like there was a pretty sizable increase in midsize customer growth in High-Touch US this quarter.

    好的。那很有幫助。我很感激。接下來,高觸達美國地區的中型客戶成長在本季似乎相當顯著。

  • Is that primarily a price versus volumes mix? And then maybe just any color on how you think about how sustainable midsized customer growth can be going forward and its impact on mix?

    這主要是價格與銷售量的關係嗎?然後,或許可以談談您對未來中型客戶可持續成長的看法,以及這種成長對產品組合的影響?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So we believe we're doing really well with midsized customers, but the majority of the difference in the increase, I believe, is 7% in the noted slides is really due to some softer comps in the prior year.

    是的。所以我們相信我們在中型客戶方面做得非常好,但我認為,幻燈片中提到的 7% 的成長差異主要是由於上一年的比較基數較低造成的。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And I would just add that I think we have a lot of opportunities with midsized customers, and we're learning, and I think we'll continue to do better, but it's not immediate to Dee's point.

    我還要補充一點,我認為我們有很多機會與中型客戶合作,我們正在學習,我認為我們會繼續做得更好,但這與迪的觀點並不完全一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sabrina Abrams, Bank of America.

    Sabrina Abrams,美國銀行。

  • Sabrina Abrams - Analyst

    Sabrina Abrams - Analyst

  • So the gross margins in the quarter were, I guess, a lot better than expected. And I know you've spoken to some stuff around LIFO expense timing, but it wasn't a pretty big delta. Just want to understand if there were any benefits from bringing down inventories quarter-over-quarter or anything about LIFO layers. And maybe if you give more color on exactly what happened with the LIFO timing? Did suppliers choose to eat increases?

    所以,我猜想,本季的毛利率比預期好得多。我知道你們討論過後進先出法(LIFO)的費用時間安排,但差別並不大。只是想了解一下,逐季降低庫存是否有任何好處,或者關於後進先出法(LIFO)層級方面有什麼資訊。或許您可以更詳細地說明一下後進先出(LIFO)的時間安排究竟發生了什麼事?供應商選擇接受價格上漲?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. Thanks for the question, Sabrina. So it's really around the fact that LIFO is really difficult to estimate because based upon your inventory purchase and the specific changes on cost, you have to be able to estimate that by SKU. And then whatever you sell, you have to go back in prior periods and pull those adjustments and make a very good estimate for your prior year inventory at the same time.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,薩布麗娜。所以問題的關鍵在於,後進先出法很難估算,因為根據你的庫存採購和成本的具體變化,你必須能夠按 SKU 進行估算。然後,無論你賣出什麼,你都必須回顧之前的時期,進行調整,同時對上一年的庫存做出非常準確的估算。

  • So we do the best we can at trying to estimate a pretty complicated quantification of LIFO impact. And so our team here was -- always continue to negotiate with suppliers. And based upon where those negotiations landed, some of those cost increases are being pushed into prior periods. And so based upon that, that is some of the LIFO charge improvement.

    因此,我們盡力估算後進先出法影響的相當複雜的量化指標。因此,我們團隊一直都在與供應商進行談判。根據談判結果,部分成本增加被推到了之前的時期。因此,基於此,這就是後進先出法收費改進的部分內容。

  • In addition to that, we have some benefit from price/costs as well. That impacts gross margin. And then also -- we also had benefits from favorable mix and freight.

    除此之外,我們在價格/成本方面也獲得了一些好處。這會影響毛利率。此外,我們也受惠於有利的產品組合和貨運價格。

  • Sabrina Abrams - Analyst

    Sabrina Abrams - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And maybe if you could talk a little bit about market growth has been -- your daily sales growth has been very stable this year with the exception of, I guess, what's handing in Q4, and you've already explained that. But barring that, just any early thoughts on how you're thinking about the growth in 2026? Are you thinking it will be similar to this year?

    好的。知道了。或許您可以談談市場成長情況—今年以來,除了第四季度的情況(您已經解釋過了)之外,您的每日銷售成長一直非常穩定。但除此之外,您對2026年的成長有什麼初步想法嗎?你覺得今年的情況會跟今年類似嗎?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So we'll provide that information at the end of the year in January. We typically don't provide that. We do expect to have a significant price rollover, as you might guess. And so -- and we still expect to gain share at our target rate. So -- but we will have more news on what we think the market will do as we get to that point.

    所以我們會在年底,也就是一月提供這些資訊。我們通常不提供這項服務。正如你可能猜到的那樣,我們預計價格將大幅下跌。因此,我們仍然期望能夠以目標速度獲得市場份額。所以——但我們會等到那時再發布更多關於我們認為市場將如何走勢的消息。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neal Burk, UBS.

    Neal Burk,瑞銀集團。

  • Neal Burk - Analyst

    Neal Burk - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about asking the price question another way. We hear about some price fatigue with respect to customers in the industrial channel. Can you talk about your conversations with your suppliers? I think you mentioned over 1,000 negotiations. So is there a sense that they're not fully passing on costs and so the inflation you see is a bit below market?

    我想問一下,能否用另一種方​​式詢問價格問題。我們了解到,工業通路的客戶對價格有些疲勞。能談談您與供應商的溝通內容嗎?我想你提到超過1000次談判。所以人們是否覺得他們沒有完全轉嫁成本,因此你看到的通貨膨脹率略低於市場水平?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I don't know if it's a bit below market. What I would say is that for a manufacturer, they have decisions to make about whether they pass percent or dollars. And I would say that a lot of them have passed somewhere in between that two in many cases. So just because the headline is 20% tariff increase, they may not pass 20% in all cases.

    是的。我不知道它是否略低於市場價格。我想說的是,對於製造商來說,他們需要決定是以百分比還是以美元來支付費用。而且我認為,在很多情況下,他們中的許多人都介於這兩者之間。所以,即使新聞標題是關稅上調 20%,也不一定在所有情況下都會上調 20%。

  • And so we've seen really a mix of things and a wide range of things from our suppliers on that front.

    因此,我們看到供應商在這方面提供了各種各樣的產品和服務。

  • Neal Burk - Analyst

    Neal Burk - Analyst

  • Okay. And I know we'll get more on this one in January, but like any kind of initial thoughts on 2026, not so much on the top line, but you mentioned gross margins around 39%. So any kind of like puts and takes when we think about how that drops through to operating profit?

    好的。我知道我們會在一月份得到更多關於這方面的信息,但就像任何關於 2026 年的初步想法一樣,與其說是關於營收,不如說是關於您提到的毛利率在 39% 左右。那麼,當我們考慮這些因素如何影響營業利潤時,是否存在某種買賣交易之類的因素呢?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I mean I would just point to two things that probably set us up well, one is the LIFO thing we've been talking about that should improve as the year going on and the other is exiting the UK market. If we can exit the UK market, that will help, too. So I would only point to those two things at this point.

    我的意思是,我想指出兩件事可能會讓我們處於有利地位,一是我們一直在談論的後進先出(LIFO)策略,隨著時間的推移,這一策略應該會有所改善;二是退出英國市場。如果我們能退出英國市場,也會有所幫助。所以目前我只想指出這兩點。

  • We'll talk about others as we get to the end of the year.

    等到年底,我們再來討論其他問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

    迪恩德雷,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • I was hoping as we close the books on Cromwell, D.G., you can share some of the lessons. This was not the first time Grainger had tried to expand in Europe. There was also Fabory. So what doesn't work with the MRO model in Europe that's kind of moot now, I think. But then more importantly, don't you still have all kinds of opportunity to outgrow North America and it's still highly fragmented.

    D.G.,我希望在我們結束對克倫威爾的研究之際,您能分享一些經驗教訓。這並非格雷恩傑第一次嘗試在歐洲擴張。還有法博裡。所以,歐洲的MRO模式有哪些問題現在已經無關緊要了,我認為。但更重要的是,你沒有各種機會超越北美的機會嗎?而且北美市場仍然高度分散。

  • So isn't that still the growth opportunity? So two questions here.

    所以,這不仍然是成長的機會嗎?這裡有兩個問題。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And the second one is really easy. So yes, we do think the opportunity is to grow in North America. And in Japan with MonotaRO, we've got great growth opportunities there. I'd say Fabory and Cromwell are very different experiences. I think Cromwell is a very good business.

    第二個問題很簡單。所以,是的,我們認為在北美發展是一個機會。在日本,憑藉 MonotaRO,我們擁有巨大的成長機會。我認為法博里和克倫威爾的經歷截然不同。我認為克倫威爾是一家非常優秀的企業。

  • We bought it right before Brexit happened. We thought we had an opportunity to learn and build off that platform for Zoro UK and then potentially think about expansion and learn about the European market. That turned out to not be true, obviously, when Brexit happened.

    我們在英國脫歐前不久買的。我們認為這是一個學習和利用該平台發展 Zoro UK 的機會,然後有可能考慮擴張並了解歐洲市場。很顯然,英國脫歐事件的發生證明,事實並非如此。

  • And at some point, it becomes clear that you've got a midsized business that isn't really material to our portfolio. And we want to make sure that our attention goes to things that really matter from a -- that can move the needle for us. And so that's why we made the decision. We do think Cromwell is a good business and will continue to be a good business going forward.

    到了某個時候,你會發現你擁有的是一家規模中等的企業,但它對我們的投資組合來說並不重要。我們希望確保我們的注意力集中在真正重要的事情上——那些能夠為我們帶來改變的事情上。所以這就是我們做出這個決定的原因。我們認為克倫威爾是一家不錯的企業,未來也會持續保持良好的發展動能。

  • Deane Dray - Analyst

    Deane Dray - Analyst

  • Good to hear. And then just to clarify on the government shutdown, and I appreciate how you sized it. Is there been any difference in behavior, demand, I mean, between federal, state, local? I mean, this is -- the focus is on the federal shutdown, but what's been the ripple effect across the rest of your government business?

    很高興聽到這個消息。然後,關於政府停擺,我想澄清一下,我很欣賞你對這件事的評估。聯邦、州、地方政府在行為和需求上是否有差異?我的意思是,雖然大家的關注點都在聯邦政府停擺上,但這對政府其他部門的業務產生了怎樣的連鎖反應呢?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Very little. Actually, I think the state business is down in October only because of the hurricane, basically. So if you look -- remove the hurricane from the three states that had big hurricane events last year, state would be on a good path. Local hasn't really been impacted that much. So from a government shutdown perspective, it's really the military so far that's been hit and things like VA hospitals that are linked to federal that have had slowed down as well.

    很少。實際上,我認為該州10月份的業務下滑基本上只是因為颶風造成的。所以,如果你看看——把颶風從去年遭受嚴重颶風襲擊的三個州中移除,那麼該州的發展前景就會很好。當地受到的影響其實不大。所以從政府停擺的角度來看,目前受到衝擊最大的是軍隊,還有像退伍軍人醫院這樣與聯邦政府相關的機構,它們的運作速度也放緩了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

    Nigel Coe,Wolfe Research。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • I appreciate the attempt to teach in on LIFO accounting. I'm accountant by training, and it fries my brain. So -- but it's a good effort. It's a really good effort.

    我很欣賞您嘗試教我後進先出會計法的做法。我受過會計方面的專業訓練,這讓我腦子一片混亂。所以——但這的確是一次不錯的嘗試。這是一項非常出色的努力。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • We've had so many whiteboard sessions in the last few months. It's ridiculous.

    過去幾個月我們開了好多次白板會議。太荒謬了。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • I know. But the more we dig into it, the more confusing it comes. But just on -- I don't know if you quantified it, Dee, but we calculated about $52 million impact this quarter, just the change in the LIFO reserve. I'm assuming that's the charge. And then I think the PR talks about still some impact in the first half of -- or by mid-2026, I think, is the wording.

    我知道。但我們越深入研究,就越感到困惑。但是——我不知道你是否量化過,迪,但我們計算出本季僅後進先出儲備金的變化就造成了約 5200 萬美元的影響。我猜這就是費用。然後我認為公關稿中提到,到 2026 年上半年(或到 2026 年中期)仍會產生一些影響,我記得是這麼說的。

  • Would you expect more moderate impacts in the first half of next year?

    您預計明年上半年受到的影響會比較溫和嗎?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So yes, your math is right. And what I will say about next year is that we're right in the middle of the cost cycle for 2026, which is why it's so difficult for us to talk about 2026 outlook because we're not done with that. So -- but what we do know is more cost is coming into the year. And so therefore, we're going to have additional LIFO impacts into the year.

    所以,你的計算是正確的。至於明年,我想說的是,我們正處於 2026 年成本週期的中間階段,這就是為什麼我們很難談論 2026 年的前景,因為我們還沒有完成這項工作。所以——但我們知道的是,今年將會出現更多成本。因此,今年我們將面臨額外的後進先出法影響。

  • And so without having crisp numbers to lay out at this point, we know we're going to have a LIFO impact. We know we're going to have additional cycles of price to pass as a result into 2026. But as it relates to actually sizing those incremental things that haven't been locked down right now, it's really hard to do. But we do think as we get through the back half of next year, we'll be in a good position because we would have had multiple pricing cycles to catch up on any impacts and new costs that come through.

    因此,雖然目前還沒有確切的數字可以公佈,但我們知道這將對後進先出法產生影響。我們知道,到 2026 年,我們還將經歷額外的價格週期。但要真正確定那些目前尚未確定的增量事項的規模,就真的很難了。但我們認為,到了明年下半年,我們將處於有利地位,因為我們將有多個定價週期來應對任何影響和新成本。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Right. Okay. And then obviously, good news on -- that the price is starting to come through here. How do we think about price elasticity? And the spirit of the question is there is a sort of a vague kind of aura of price fatigue out there with some companies.

    正確的。好的。然後,很顯然,也有好消息——價格開始回落了。我們如何看待價格彈性?這個問題的本質在於,目前市場上某些公司似乎存在著一種模糊的價格疲勞感。

  • And I'm just curious how the customers are sort of responding to these price increases. And how do you think about elasticity of demand, especially for the white label goods?

    我很好奇顧客們對這些價格上漲有何反應。您如何看待需求彈性,特別是對於貼牌商品而言?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So we are having very good conversations with our customers. They are seeing everybody come to them with what we're talking to them about generally. So we haven't really seen price fatigue, and we've been very measured in how we've done this. I guess there could be a point where that might be a challenge.

    是的。因此,我們與客戶的溝通非常順暢。他們發現,大家來找他們談論的,基本上都是我們平常跟他們談的話題。因此,我們還沒有真正感受到價格疲勞,而且我們在這方面一直採取非常謹慎的態度。我想,在某些情況下,這可能會成為一個挑戰。

  • But certainly, for most of what we sell, it's a very small portion of our customers expense. And so we find that as long as our prices are competitive, we are usually in a good shape.

    但可以肯定的是,對於我們銷售的大部分產品而言,這只是客戶支出中非常小的一部分。因此,我們發現,只要我們的價格具有競爭力,我們通常就能保持良好的經營。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tommy Moll, Stephens Inc.

    Tommy Moll,Stephens 公司

  • Thomas Moll - Analyst

    Thomas Moll - Analyst

  • I want to tighten up my understanding here on the UK exit. Two-part question. The $40 million sales impact that was over what time frame? And then the 20 basis points operating margin impact, just want to clarify, you meant to say or what you meant was assuming the exits go as planned, that would be the uplift to consolidated company margin?

    我想更深入了解英國脫歐的相關事宜。問題分為兩部分。這4000萬美元的銷售額影響是在什麼時間內發生的?至於20個基點的營業利潤率影響,我想確認一下,您是指假設退出按計畫進行,那麼這將提升公司合併利潤率嗎?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So yes, the $40 million is just tied to Q4. And the 20 basis points impact is for total company on an annualized basis.

    是的。是的,這 4000 萬美元只與第四季有關。20 個基點的影響是按年度計算的公司整體影響。

  • Thomas Moll - Analyst

    Thomas Moll - Analyst

  • Okay. And the $40 million, Dee, is for the entirety of Q4, correct?

    好的。迪,那4000萬美元是第四季的全部費用,對嗎?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So we're estimating that we will be able to close on the Cromwell deal by the end of November, early December.

    因此,我們預計能夠在 11 月底或 12 月初完成克倫威爾的交易。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And that's the $40 million from that point, effectively.

    從那時起,就實際損失了 4000 萬美元。

  • Thomas Moll - Analyst

    Thomas Moll - Analyst

  • After that point in time?

    在那之後呢?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And that's both Cromwell and what we expect to happen at Zoro UK as well combined.

    而這正是克倫威爾以及我們對 Zoro UK 未來發展方向的共同預期。

  • Thomas Moll - Analyst

    Thomas Moll - Analyst

  • Perfect. Okay. We're clear now. And then just on High-Touch and the exit rate on pricing. For the fourth quarter, I think you said somewhere north of 3 points and then also that there are continuing supplier conversations suggesting there's probably going to need to be more pushed, let's call it, first half '25.

    完美的。好的。現在清楚了。然後就高觸感服務和定價退出率而言。我認為你曾說過第四季度會超過 3 個百分點,而且與供應商的持續對話表明,可能需要進一步推進,我們姑且稱之為 2025 年上半年。

  • So as we just think about the wrap here -- excuse me, first half '26. As we think about the wrap, I mean, could we end up in a world where 2026 pricing on High-Touch is, I don't know, 4 points or better if we just put all these data points one after the other?

    所以,當我們想到這裡即將結束的時候──抱歉,是2026年上半年。當我們考慮最終結果時,我的意思是,如果我們把所有這些數據點一個接一個地列出來,我們最終會不會得到這樣的結果:2026 年 High-Touch 的價格是,我不知道,4 個點或更低?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. I mean, we're estimating that the wrap will be close to 3. So since we don't know the other numbers, it's highly likely that it's going to be north of 3 for next year.

    是的。我的意思是,我們估計包裝尺寸會接近 3。由於我們不知道其他數字,所以明年很可能高於 3。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Guy Hardwick, Barclays Capital.

    蓋伊·哈德威克,巴克萊資本。

  • Guy Hardwick - Analyst

    Guy Hardwick - Analyst

  • Most of my questions have been answered, but just a quick one for me. Looking at the sales growth by customer end market for High-Touch Solutions US, warehousing is down mid-teens, which is sharply against the kind of trend or slightly up, slightly down each of the last few quarters. Can you explain that?

    我的大部分問題都已得到解答,但還有一個小問題想問。從 High-Touch Solutions US 的客戶終端市場來看,倉儲業務的銷售成長下降了 15% 左右,這與過去幾季略有上升或略有下降的趨勢截然相反。你能解釋一下嗎?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, sure. That's entirely around one customer where there was a shift is what I would say.

    當然可以。可以說,這一切都是圍繞著一位客戶發生的轉變。

  • Guy Hardwick - Analyst

    Guy Hardwick - Analyst

  • Was that a lost contract or closure of facility, that sort of change?

    是合約遺失還是工廠關閉之類的變化嗎?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, just a contract adjustment.

    是的,只是合約調整而已。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick Baumann, JPMorgan.

    Patrick Baumann,摩根大通。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • I had a couple of quick ones here. Touch on the volume trends at High-Touch again. What do you estimate the MRO market volume did in the third quarter? And in context of that, can you touch on if you're still happy with the returns you're getting on your investments, your share gain investments?

    我在這裡快速地拍了幾張。再次探討High-Touch的銷售趨勢。您估計第三季MRO市場交易量如何?在此背景下,您能否談談您是否仍對您的投資回報,特別是股票收益投資的回報感到滿意?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Yes, roughly 2% on volume for the -- that's still below 2% in volume for the quarter, 2%.

    是的。是的,銷量大約成長了 2%——這仍然低於本季銷量的 2%,2%。

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Market.

    市場。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, you're talking about market or volume?

    不,你指的是市場規模還是交易量?

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • Market.

    市場。

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Market.

    市場。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So market would have been down 2%.

    所以市場下跌了2%。

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • That's correct.

    沒錯。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • I'm sorry, I thought you're asking what our volume was. Our volume would have been 1% to 2% in the quarter. And yes, the short answer is yes. We are seeing significant returns on our investments, getting more effective and more efficient in some of those investments. So yes, we're pretty bullish on what we're seeing from what we're investing right now.

    抱歉,我以為您問的是我們的音量是多少。本季我們的銷量佔比約為 1% 至 2%。是的,簡而言之,答案是肯定的。我們的投資獲得了顯著的回報,在某些投資方面也變得更加有效和有效率。所以,是的,我們對目前投資的前景相當看好。

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. And I would just point you to our return on invested capital is still north of 40%. It was lower than prior year. However, the main impact from that is just us continuing to build assets and in this case, build networking assets related to a lot of investments that we're making in DC capacity to ensure that we have great service and availability.

    是的。我還要指出,我們的投資報酬率仍然超過 40%。低於上年同期水準。然而,主要影響在於我們將繼續建立資產,在這種情況下,我們將建立與資料中心容量相關的網路資產,以確保我們提供優質的服務和可用性。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • Okay. And then my follow-up is on the margin side again. So the LIFO charge I get is hard to size for '26, so we can make our assumptions around how much of that 80 to 90 basis point drag to add back as a starting point. But the slide mentions price/cost as being negative as well. Can you size that?

    好的。然後我的後續工作又回到了利潤方面。因此,我得到的 LIFO 費用很難確定 2026 年的規模,所以我們可以假設要將 80 到 90 個基點的阻力加回多少作為起點。但投影片中也提到價格/成本為負值。你能告訴我它的尺寸嗎?

  • I assume that's incremental to that 80 to 90 basis points. And then as you sit in front of the whiteboard and game theory if the IEEPA tariffs are ruled illegal, mechanically, how do you guys think about that in terms of the flow-through to results?

    我估計這是在80到90個基點的基礎上增加的。然後,當你們坐在白板前,運用博弈論分析,如果 IEEPA 關稅被裁定為非法,從機制上講,你們如何看待這會對結果產生怎樣的影響?

  • Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Deidra Merriwether - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So I'll start and then D.G. can kind of focus -- follow. So as we look at -- when we look at next year, we're still going to have LIFO impact, right? They're still going to exist. The difference will be our price will continue to build and so we will see gross margin from a Grainger perspective improve into next year as it relates to that.

    所以我先開始,然後D.G.就可以集中精力-跟著做。所以當我們展望明年時,後進先出法仍然會產生影響,對吧?它們還會繼續存在。不同之處在於,我們的價格將繼續上漲,因此從固安捷的角度來看,明年的毛利率將會因此而增加。

  • Now the piece that we don't -- and that's based upon all we know today, right? We're working on additional cost increases. When we start the year, generally, we -- based upon the cost negotiations, we push through cost increases in line with the negotiations that we have completed. And so the cycle kind of will start again. And those details we don't have to share.

    現在,我們不知道的是——而這完全是基於我們目前所知道的一切,對吧?我們正在研究如何進一步提高成本。年初的時候,我們通常會根據成本談判的結果,推動成本上漲,這與我們已經完成的談判一致。於是,這個循環又會重新開始。那些細節我們不必透露。

  • But usually, LIFO weighs heavily on our business at the beginning of the year. And then again, we catch up from a price perspective through our cycle of increases.

    但通常情況下,在年初,後進先出法會對我們的業務造成沉重負擔。然後,我們會透過價格上漲的周期,從價格角度迎頭趕上。

  • So LIFO will not be going away. Some -- it will normalize. What we're experiencing this year would normalize. But then we will be on a path where price will continue to build. And that's why we feel pretty confident that as we get to the second half of next year, just like we're ending this year, if you look at the midpoint of the guide that we're going to be at about of 39%.

    所以後進先出法不會消失。有些情況會逐漸恢復正常。我們今年所經歷的一切將會成為常態。但那樣一來,價格就會繼續上漲。因此,我們相當有信心,到了明年下半年,就像今年年底一樣,如果你看一下指導方針的中點,我們會達到大約 39%。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Your second question is probably more theoretical at this point, which is if tariffs are illegal what would happen. First of all, we have followed the guide -- our own guidelines here that we only do things that actually are happening. And so we would have to actually see what the law change would look like and figure out what would happen.

    你的第二個問題目前可能更偏向理論層面,那就是如果關稅是非法的,會發生什麼事。首先,我們一直遵循指南——我們自己的準則,只做實際正在發生的事情。因此,我們必須實際觀察法律變更的具體內容,並弄清楚將會發生什麼。

  • I'd say two things. One is we have worked closely with suppliers to tag what the tariff cost increases are. So we could and we would know how to unwind those if that was, in fact, required. We could do that. And certainly, as that happened, we would then, of course, get a benefit because when we took the lower cost product in, then we have the reverse of what's happened in some way.

    我想說兩點。一方面,我們與供應商密切合作,以確定關稅成本上漲幅度。所以,如果真的需要的話,我們能夠也知道如何解除這些限制。我們可以做到。當然,如果這種情況發生,我們肯定會從中受益,因為當我們採用成本較低的產品時,某種程度上就會發生相反的情況。

  • But I don't know how big a benefit that would be. So we'd have to come back to you and model all that if that, in fact, happened.

    但我不知道這會帶來多大的好處。所以,如果這種情況真的發生,我們就得再來找你,並為你建立模型。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Dankert, Loop Capital Markets.

    Chris Dankert,Loop 資本市場。

  • Christopher Dankert - Analyst

    Christopher Dankert - Analyst

  • I guess focusing on Endless Assortment here. Nice results. Maybe can you comment on how much of that's being driven by the more targeted selection continue to provide some benefits? How much of that is kind of the customer acquisition flywheel, just larger invoice size? Maybe just any commentary on kind of what we're seeing in terms of trends inside EA.

    我猜這裡主要關注的是無窮無盡的商品種類。結果不錯。您能否評論一下,這種更有針對性的選擇在多大程度上繼續帶來益處?其中有多少是客戶獲取的飛輪效應,也就是更大的發票金額?或許可以就EA內部的發展趨勢發表一些評論。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. So what I would say is that most of the improvement we've seen in -- I'll start -- I'll focus on Zoro because Zoro has been a pretty big shift in terms of performance, has been improved fundamentals on getting more attractive customers and then getting them to buy frequently. Average order size hasn't really changed at all. It's all been frequency of orders when you look at it. That's been the driver.

    是的。所以我想說的是,我們看到的大部分改進——我先從Zoro說起,因為Zoro在業績方面發生了相當大的轉變,它在吸引更有吸引力的客戶並讓他們頻繁購買方面取得了根本性的進步。平均訂單規模其實並沒有任何變化。從長遠來看,一切都取決於訂單頻率。這就是原因。

  • And that's been better customer acquisition, so acquiring customers with the right products that gives us higher probability of actually getting a repeat. And it's also just doing better at marketing to those customers and creating a relationship on a digital -- through digital means.

    這樣可以更好地獲取客戶,透過提供合適的產品來獲取客戶,從而提高客戶重購的機率。而且,它在向這些客戶進行行銷以及透過數位手段建立數位關係方面也做得更好。

  • So really, the fundamentals have improved a lot, and we've seen repeat rates go way up. We've seen them do things as a business with pricing that has helped, and we've seen service improve on. So all those things have contributed to improved performance.

    所以說,基本面確實有了很大的改善,我們看到回頭客數量大幅增加。我們看到他們在定價方面採取了一些商業策略,這些策略確實有所幫助,我們也看到他們的服務有所改善。因此,所有這些因素都對性能的提升起到了促進作用。

  • Christopher Dankert - Analyst

    Christopher Dankert - Analyst

  • Got it. And I guess as a follow-up, I mean we're seeing better drop-through now on the SG&A leverage. Are there any additional investments similar to the Tokyo DC or anything else we should keep in mind into 2026, 2027 that would impact kind of that drop-through rate? Or should we expect pretty good incremental margins in EA going forward from here?

    知道了。我想補充一點,我們現在看到銷售、一般及行政費用槓桿率的下降幅度有所改善。2026 年、2027 年,除了東京資料中心之外,還有其他投資項目或事項需要我們注意,這些項目可能會影響到這種下降率嗎?或者我們可以預期EA未來將獲得相當不錯的利潤成長?

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Other than Meadows, I don't know of any other investment that is on the horizon. They would have a lot of capacity in both Osaka and Tokyo after Meadows, and that be the expectations they would fit for a while.

    除了 Meadows 之外,我不知道還有其他什麼投資項目即將啟動。在梅多斯球場建成後,大阪和東京的球場容量都會很大,而這也會是他們在一段時間內所能達到的預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back over to management for any closing comments.

    目前沒有其他問題了。我想把發言權交還給管理階層,請他們做最後的總結發言。

  • Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Donald Macpherson - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Great. So thanks for joining the call today. One thing I'd highlight is that I think the underlying business trends are really good and we're doing a lot of great things to improve the customer experience to prepare to improve our cost structure, to continue work on building technology and building service capabilities through the right network changes on the distribution center network. So while we spent a lot of time talking about LIFO, I hope you get the sense that, that's not really what we're focused on. As a business, we're focused on actually underlying performance, and we feel like the underlying performance is pretty good.

    偉大的。感謝您今天參加電話會議。我想強調的一點是,我認為潛在的業務趨勢非常好,我們正在做很多很棒的事情來改善客戶體驗,為改善成本結構做好準備,繼續致力於透過配送中心網路的正確網路變革來建立技術和服務能力。所以,雖然我們花了很多時間討論後進先出法,但我希望你們能明白,這並不是我們真正關注的重點。作為一家企業,我們關注的是實際的潛在業績,我們覺得潛在業績相當不錯。

  • With that, I wish you all a safe and happy Halloween. And thanks for joining the call today.

    最後,祝大家萬聖節快樂平安。感謝您今天參加電話會議。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與。