固安捷 (GWW) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the W.W. Grainger First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 WW Grainger 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Kyle Bland, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Kyle Bland 先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning. Welcome to Grainger's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. With me are D.G. Macpherson, Chairman and CEO; and Dee Merriwether, Senior Vice President and CFO.

早安.歡迎參加 Grainger 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。和我一起的還有董事長兼執行長 D.G. Macpherson 和高級副總裁兼財務長 Dee Merriwether。

As a reminder, some of our comments today may include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is included in the company's most recent Form 8-K and other periodic reports filed with the SEC.

提醒一下，我們今天的一些評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種風險和不確定性的影響。有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素的更多信息，包含在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 8-K 表格和其他定期報告中。

This morning's call will focus on results for the first quarter of 2025, which are consistent on both a reported and adjusted basis. Definitions and full reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures with their corresponding GAAP measures are found in the tables at the end of this presentation and in our earnings release, both of which are available on our IR website.

今天早上的電話會議將重點討論 2025 年第一季的業績，該業績在報告和調整後的基礎上都是一致的。本簡報末尾的表格和我們的收益報告中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與其對應 GAAP 指標的定義和完整對賬，這兩份報告均可在我們的 IR 網站上找到。

We will also share results related to MonotaRO. Please remember MonotaRO is a public company and follows Japanese GAAP, which differs from US GAAP and is reported in our results one month in arrears. As a result, the numbers discussed will differ from MonotaRO's public statements.

我們也將分享與 MonotaRO 相關的結果。請記住，MonotaRO 是一家上市公司，遵循日本 GAAP，這與美國 GAAP 不同，並且在我們的結果中報告延遲了一個月。因此，討論的數字將與 MonotaRO 的公開聲明有所不同。

Now I will turn it over to D.G.

現在我將把發言權交給 D.G.

Thanks, Kyle. Good morning, and we appreciate everyone joining the call. Despite the unpredictable environment, the first few months of 2025 have panned out much like we expected. The business continues to perform well as our team stays focused on serving our customers and delivering value to our stakeholders.

謝謝，凱爾。早安，我們感謝大家參加電話會議。儘管環境難以預測，但 2025 年頭幾個月的情況與我們預期的大致相同。由於我們的團隊始終專注於服務客戶並為利害關係人創造價值，業務持續表現良好。

While tariffs are certainly a topic of conversation, customers remain acutely focused on running their businesses safely and efficiently. I recently had the chance to visit a large corporate campus where we worked alongside a facilities maintenance organization to support this customer. Our team shows up as a trusted partner helping the customer solve the challenges that they face on the ground each day, including ordering, organizing and managing their MRO inventory.

雖然關稅無疑是一個討論主題，但客戶仍然非常專注於安全且有效率地開展業務。我最近有機會參觀了一個大型企業園區，我們在那裡與一家設施維護組織合作為該客戶提供支援。我們的團隊作為值得信賴的合作夥伴，幫助客戶解決他們每天面臨的挑戰，包括訂購、組織和管理他們的 MRO 庫存。

It was again apparent that local on-site execution is critical to creating value for our customers. This visit was a good reminder that no matter what the external environment, it is important to stay focused on what we can control to ensure that we capitalize on the significant opportunity in the market.

顯而易見的是，本地現場執行對於為我們的客戶創造價值至關重要。這次訪問很好地提醒了我們，無論外部環境如何，重要的是專注於我們能夠控制的事情，以確保我們能夠利用市場上的重大機會。

Although it's largely business as usual on the ground, the external environment remains highly fluid. We are working closely with our supplier partners to understand the full impact that announced tariffs will have on our business.

儘管當地經濟基本照常，但外部環境仍高度不穩定。我們正在與供應商合作夥伴密切合作，以了解宣布的關稅對我們業務的全面影響。

Fortunately, the investments we've made in our product information and pricing capabilities, our scale, and the depth of our sourcing know-how position Grainger to effectively navigate the situation. As we move forward, we remain committed to ensuring transparency with our customers and adhering to our core pricing tenets, offering market-relevant pricing while targeting price cost neutrality over time.

幸運的是，我們在產品資訊和定價能力、規模以及採購專業知識深度方面所做的投資使 Grainger 能夠有效地應對這種情況。隨著我們繼續前進，我們將繼續致力於確保對客戶的透明度並堅持我們的核心定價原則，提供與市場相關的定價，同時長期保持價格成本中立。

Distributors generally benefit from modest inflationary environments, and depending on the depth and duration of the tariff uncertainty, it may play out that way, but the situation remains highly unpredictable. In any case, we expect to play a key role in helping our customers navigate this current challenge, and I'm confident in the team's ability to remain agile in this dynamic environment.

分銷商通常會受益於溫和的通膨環境，根據關稅不確定性的深度和持續時間，情況可能會如此發展，但情況仍然極難預測。無論如何，我們都希望在幫助客戶應對當前挑戰方面發揮關鍵作用，我相信團隊有能力在這種動態環境中保持敏捷。

Moving to Q1 results. While the demand environment remained muted, we delivered another quarter of solid growth and profitability, in line with the quarterly financial targets we communicated for the company in January. We continue to leverage technology, our product and customer information advantage and analytical capabilities to drive differentiated value for our customers in both segments.

轉向第一季業績。儘管需求環境依然低迷，但我們仍實現了又一個季度的穩健成長和盈利，與我們在一月份為公司製定的季度財務目標一致。我們將繼續利用技術、產品和客戶資訊優勢以及分析能力，為兩個領域的客戶創造差異化價值。

Total company reported sales for the quarter were up 1.7% or 4.4% on a daily constant currency basis. Operating margins for the company remained healthy at 15.6%, and diluted EPS finished the quarter up $0.24 to $9.86. Operating cash flow came in at $646 million, which allowed us to return a total of $380 million to Grainger shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

公司報告本季總銷售額成長 1.7%（以每日固定匯率計算成長 4.4%）。公司營業利益率維持健康，達15.6%，稀釋每股盈餘本季上漲0.24美元，達9.86美元。營業現金流達到6.46億美元，透過股利和股票回購，我們向格蘭傑股東返還了總計3.8億美元。

Lastly, I want to mention that yesterday, we announced a 10% increase to our quarterly dividend, marking the 54th consecutive year of expected dividend increases. This reflects our continued commitment to returning cash to shareholders through a balanced and return-focused approach. Overall, the quarter finished largely in line with expectations, and we remain on track to deliver on our 2025 guidance. I will now turn it over to Dee.

最後，我想提一下，昨天我們宣布季度股息增加 10%，這是連續第 54 年預期股息增加。這體現了我們持續致力於透過平衡且注重回報的方式向股東返還現金。整體而言，本季的結果基本上符合預期，我們仍有望實現 2025 年的預期。現在我將把話題交給 Dee。

Thank you, D.G. Turning to slide 7. You can see the high-level first quarter results for the total company, including $4.3 billion in sales, up 4.4% on a daily constant currency basis. Within the period, we saw gross margin improvement across both segments, which mostly offset SG&A deleverage in High-Touch. This led to total company operating margins of 15.6% for the quarter, down 20 basis points compared to 2024, but above our communicated first quarter expectations, largely due to the timing of certain SG&A items.

謝謝，D.G. 翻到第 7 張投影片。您可以看到整個公司第一季的業績表現優異，其中包括 43 億美元的銷售額，以每日固定匯率計算成長 4.4%。在此期間，我們看到兩個部門的毛利率都有所提高，這在很大程度上抵消了 High-Touch 部門的銷售、一般及行政費用去槓桿的影響。這導致本季度公司總營業利潤率為 15.6%，與 2024 年相比下降了 20 個基點，但高於我們傳達的第一季預期，這主要是由於某些銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 項目的時間表。

Diluted EPS for the quarter of $9.86 was up $0.24 or 2.5% higher compared to the prior year period. Moving to segment level results. The High-Touch Solutions segment got off to a slower start as weather, holiday timing and some government softness across January and February impacted results to begin the year. In total, sales were down 0.2% on a reported basis or up 1.9% on a daily constant currency basis. Results were driven by continued volume growth and modest price contribution within the segment, and we delivered growth across all geographies and local days, local currency.

本季稀釋每股收益為 9.86 美元，較去年同期上漲 0.24 美元，或 2.5%。轉向細分級別的結果。由於天氣、假期時間以及 1 月和 2 月政府的一些寬鬆政策影響了年初的業績，高接觸解決方案部門開局較慢。整體而言，銷售額按報告基礎下降 0.2%，以每日固定匯率計算成長 1.9%。業績的推動力來自於該部門持續的銷售成長和適度的價格貢獻，並且我們在所有地區、當地時間和當地貨幣都實現了成長。

In the US specifically, we saw strong performance with contractors and health care customers, which helped to offset slower growth in other areas, including manufacturing. For the segment, gross profit margin finished the quarter at 42.4%, up 60 basis points versus the prior year. In the quarter, gross margin benefited from favorable product mix and supplier funding tailwind related to the annual Grainger Sales Meeting. Each of these items contributed roughly half of the year-over-year gross margin favorability. For the quarter, price/cost was roughly neutral.

具體來說，在美國，我們看到承包商和醫療保健客戶表現強勁，這有助於抵消包括製造業在內的其他領域的成長放緩。該部門本季毛利率為 42.4%，較上年同期成長 60 個基點。本季度，毛利率受益於有利的產品組合和與年度 Grainger 銷售會議相關的供應商融資順風。這些項目中的每一個都貢獻了大約一半的同比毛利率。本季的價格/成本大致處於中性水準。

SG&A costs for the segment increased over the prior year period as we continue to invest in demand-generating activities and reflect the P&L impact of the annual Grainger Sales Meeting, which was an equal offset to the favorability we saw in gross margin. These costs, coupled with the softer top line and one fewer selling day in the current year, led to SG&A deleverage of 80 basis points for the quarter. If you normalize for one fewer selling day and the impact of the Grainger Sales Meeting, SG&A only slightly delevered year-over-year. Taking all of this together, operating margin remained healthy at 17.7%, down 20 basis points versus Q1 2024, but ahead of our expectations to start the year.

由於我們繼續投資於需求創造活動，並反映年度 Grainger 銷售會議的損益影響，該部門的銷售、一般及行政費用較上年同期有所增加，這同樣抵消了我們在毛利率方面看到的有利因素。這些成本，加上本年度營業收入下降和銷售日減少一天，導致本季銷售、一般及行政費用去槓桿率降低 80 個基點。如果將銷售日減少一天以及 Grainger 銷售會議的影響考慮在內，那麼銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 同比僅略有下降。綜合考慮所有這些因素，營業利潤率仍保持在 17.7% 的健康水平，較 2024 年第一季下降 20 個基點，但高於我們年初的預期。

Looking at market outgrowth on slide 9. On a volume-only basis using the manufacturing subcomponent of industrial production as a proxy, implied growth for the US MRO market volume was 1% to 1.5% in the quarter. With our High-Touch Solutions US business driving 1.3% volume growth, this would suggest mathematical market outgrowth on a volume basis was roughly flat in Q1, which was surprising to us even with our slower start in January and February.

查看投影片 9 上的市場成長。僅以工業生產中的製造業子成分作為代理，以數量為基礎，美國 MRO 市場數量的隱含成長率在本季為 1% 至 1.5%。由於我們的高接觸解決方案美國業務推動了 1.3% 的銷量成長，這表明第一季數學市場銷量成長基本持平，即使我們在 1 月和 2 月的開局較慢，這也令我們感到驚訝。

While tariffs have not had a meaningful impact on our business to date, they seem to be inflating the underlying IP benchmark, likely reflecting trade-related noise as manufacturers react abnormally given the unique environment. The IP benchmark has been a strong accessible indicator of our overall MRO industry performance over multiple cycles, but its ability to capture the dynamic and unprecedented nature of the current economic environment is uncertain.

雖然迄今為止關稅尚未對我們的業務產生重大影響，但它們似乎正在提高基礎的 IP 基準，這可能反映了與貿易相關的噪音，因為製造商在獨特的環境下做出了異常反應。IP 基準一直是我們 MRO 產業在多個週期內整體表現的強有力指標，但其能否捕捉到當前經濟環境的動態和前所未有的性質尚不確定。

As we've been discussing over the last year, we run a separate internal model in parallel to help triangulate around MRO volume growth. This internal model pulls in several supply and demand factors, including MRO product shipments, import/export dynamics and end-user activity to formulate a comprehensive view of the MRO landscape, including segments outside of manufacturing. This internal view suggests that the MRO market volume actually declined in the low single digits during the first quarter, implying we drove several hundred basis points of outgrowth.

正如我們去年所討論的那樣，我們同時運行一個單獨的內部模型來幫助測量 MRO 量的成長。此內部模型考慮了多種供需因素，包括 MRO 產品運輸、進出口動態和最終用戶活動，以形成對 MRO 格局的全面了解，包括製造業以外的部分。這種內部觀點表明，第一季 MRO 市場規模實際上下降了個位數，這意味著我們推動了數百個基點的成長。

While the two different models have been highly correlated during normal business cycles, the divergence calls into question the relevance of our quarterly outgrowth disclosure given the uncertain environment. It is likely that this quarterly disconnect will persist so long as trade policy and tariffs continue to influence the manufacturers' production decisions.

雖然在正常的商業週期中，這兩種不同的模型高度相關，但考慮到不確定的環境，這種分歧使我們對季度成長揭露的相關性產生了質疑。只要貿易政策和關稅持續影響製造商的生產決策，這種季度脫節現象就可能持續下去。

With this, moving forward, we are pivoting to our annual disclosure of our outgrowth metric. We believe this decision will create less quarter-to-quarter noise and allow us to stay focused on discussing the drivers of our growth while keeping an eye on our relative performance compared to competition. We'll consider reintroducing the quarterly disclosure when the macro environment stabilizes, and in the meantime, look forward to sharing our annual progress on volume outgrowth at the end of the year.

由此，我們將轉向每年揭露我們的成長指標。我們相信這項決定將減少季度間的噪音，並使我們能夠專注於討論成長動力，同時關注我們與競爭對手相比的相對錶現。當宏觀環境穩定時，我們將考慮重新引入季度揭露，同時期待在年底分享我們的年度交易量成長進展。

It's important to note that despite the noise in the metric, we still delivered on our first quarter sales expectations, and this change in disclosure has no impact on the full year High-Touch segment sales guidance we discussed back in January. Moreover, nothing is changing with our long-term earnings algorithm, including our annual volume outlook target, which remains at 400 to 500 basis points.

值得注意的是，儘管指標存在噪音，但我們仍然實現了第一季的銷售預期，而且這種披露變化對我們在一月份討論的全年高接觸部門銷售指引沒有影響。此外，我們的長期獲利演算法沒有任何變化，包括我們的年度交易量展望目標，仍保持在 400 至 500 個基點。

Now focusing on Endless Assortment. Sales increased 10.3% or 15.3% on a daily constant currency basis, which adjusts for the impact of the depreciated Japanese yen. Zoro US was up 18.4%, while MonotaRO achieved 13.6% growth in local days, local currency.

現在專注於無限分類。銷售額成長了 10.3%，以每日固定匯率計算則成長了 15.3%，這已根據日圓貶值的影響進行了調整。Zoro US 上漲 18.4%，而 MonotaRO 以當地天數和當地貨幣計算則達到 13.6% 的成長。

At a business level, Zoro continues its momentum, once again delivering strong growth underpinned by its core B2B customers and improving retention rates. At MonotaRO, sales growth remained strong with enterprise customers, coupled with solid acquisition and repeat purchase rates with small and midsized businesses. On a reported basis, these results were partially offset by foreign exchange as the yen devaluation represented a headwind year-over-year.

在業務層面，Zoro 繼續保持強勁勢頭，在核心 B2B 客戶和提高留存率的支撐下再次實現強勁成長。MonotaRO 的企業客戶銷售成長依然強勁，同時中小型企業的購買率和重複購買率也保持穩定。據報道，由於日圓貶值同比呈現逆風，這些結果被外匯部分抵銷。

On profitability, operating margins for the segment increased by 80 basis points to 8.7%, with both businesses contributing to the favorability. MonotaRO margins remained strong at 12% with continued DC efficiencies driving improved operating leverage. At Zoro, operating margins were up 240 basis points to 5.2%, aided by gross margin flow-through and strong top line leverage.

在獲利能力方面，該部門的營業利潤率增加了 80 個基點，達到 8.7%，兩項業務都為盈利做出了貢獻。MonotaRO 利潤率保持強勁，達到 12%，而 DC 效率的持續提高則推動了營運槓桿的提高。Zoro 的營業利潤率上漲 240 個基點，達到 5.2%，這得益於毛利率的流動和強勁的營收槓桿。

Gross margins outpaced expectations as we made some non-tariff-related pricing changes in the quarter, the benefit of which we expect to moderate slightly as the year continues. Overall, we are encouraged by the strong progress made in the quarter and expect to continue our momentum across this segment.

由於我們在本季度做出一些與非關稅相關的價格調整，毛利率超出了預期，我們預計隨著時間的推移，其收益將略有緩和。總體而言，我們對本季取得的強勁進展感到鼓舞，並希望繼續保持這一勢頭。

Given the environment, I think it would be helpful to share an overview of how we see the current tariff landscape. On slide 12, there are a few things to call out. First, it's early innings and things are constantly adjusting. Even with the original Chinese tariffs, which have been in effect for nearly 60 days, we're only recently completing negotiations with the subset of our supplier partners regarding tariff-related cost increases. So while we've seen a swift pace of tariff-related headlines, things are progressing more slowly on the ground.

考慮到當前的環境，我認為分享我們對當前關稅狀況的看法會很有幫助。在第 12 張投影片上，有幾點需要指出。首先，現在還處於早期階段，情況正在不斷調整。即使中國原先的關稅已經生效近 60 天，我們最近才與部分供應商合作夥伴就關稅相關的成本上漲完成談判。因此，儘管我們看到與關稅相關的新聞頭條不斷湧現，但實際進展卻較為緩慢。

Second, understanding the full impact that the tariffs have on our business is not straightforward and needs to be quantified at a granular level. You can see our total US COGS exposure on the left-hand side of the slide, with around 50% being domestically sourced and the remainder comprised of import products, including those from China.

其次，了解關稅對我們業務的全部影響並不是一件簡單的事情，需要在細節層面上進行量化。您可以在投影片左側看到我們的美國總銷貨成本敞口，其中約 50％ 來自國內採購，其餘為進口產品，包括來自中國的產品。

As others in the markets have discussed, this view of COGS is on a country-of-origin basis and does not further deconstruct individual product components by their respective country of origin. What we can do is take the announced tariff rates and apply that to our total COGS exposure to estimate the impact. You have to go through each product and evaluate its composition and cost structure. This includes answering questions like what are the input components and where are they sourced, how much of their cost is freight-related, et cetera. You need to do this by product to grasp what elements are subject to tariffs as you adhere to the government tariff schedule and engage in cost conversations with our supplier base.

正如市場上其他人所討論的那樣，這種 COGS 觀點是基於原產國的，並沒有根據各自的原產國進一步解構單一產品組件。我們可以做的是採用已公佈的關稅稅率並將其應用到我們的總 COGS 風險敞口中來估算影響。您必須仔細檢查每種產品並評估其成分和成本結構。這包括回答諸如輸入組件是什麼、它們的來源在哪裡、它們的成本有多少與運費相關等問題。您需要根據產品來執行此操作，以了解哪些要素需要繳納關稅，同時遵守政府關稅表並與我們的供應商群體進行成本對話。

Given the investment we've made in product information, the tools we've built, and the product teardown work we've completed over the last several years, we feel we are well equipped to navigate this challenge. As we gain clarity on costs, we'll work to pass along these increases to our customers, similar to what we do for other cost increases we received.

鑑於我們在產品資訊方面的投資、我們所建構的工具以及我們在過去幾年中完成的產品拆解工作，我們認為我們有能力應對這項挑戰。當我們明確成本後，我們將努力將這些增加的成本轉嫁給我們的客戶，類似於我們對收到的其他成本增加所做的那樣。

With this, earlier today, we took initial pricing actions primarily related to Section 232 and the first wave of announced tariffs on China, which did not include any increases related to the recent reciprocal escalations. These initial pricing actions only apply to a small portion of our products, largely those where Grainger is importing the product directly. On the vast majority of our products where we don't directly import, we are taking a measured approach, and we'll wait to pass price until we have clarity on the amount and timing of cost increases. Our goal here will be to mitigate impacts to our business and achieve price/cost neutrality over time.

為此，今天早些時候，我們採取了初步定價行動，主要與第 232 條款和第一波對中國宣布的關稅有關，其中不包括與最近的相互升級有關的任何增加。這些初步定價措施僅適用於我們的一小部分產品，主要是 Grainger 直接進口的產品。對於我們絕大多數不直接進口的產品，我們採取一種審慎的態度，直到我們明確成本增加的金額和時間後才會公佈價格。我們的目標是減輕對我們業務的影響並隨著時間的推移實現價格/成本中立。

Obviously, if the heightened reciprocal tariffs persist, we would need to consider source of supply and overall product economics to determine what course of action we would need to take. It goes without saying, but this remains a very fluid situation, and we're working side-by-side with our suppliers and customers alike. Importantly, as we look across our assortment today, we don't believe we're uniquely exposed to these tariffs compared to our competitive set.

顯然，如果持續提高互惠關稅，我們就需要考慮供應來源和整體產品經濟狀況，以確定我們需要採取什麼行動。毋庸置疑，情況仍然非常不穩定，我們正在與供應商和客戶並肩合作。重要的是，當我們今天審視我們的產品組合時，我們認為與我們的競爭對手相比，我們並不是唯一受到這些關稅影響的產品。

In any case, our team is focused on adhering to our two core pricing tenets: To remain price competitive and achieve price/cost neutrality over time, and I have full confidence in our ability to remain agile while we execute on these objectives. As D.G mentioned at the beginning of the call, after our solid start to the year, we're reaffirming our 2025 guidance. From a tariff perspective, we've included price/cost impacts we are seeing today and assume any go-forward incremental pricing actions passed on price/cost neutral basis would be offset by lower demand.

無論如何，我們的團隊專注於堅持我們的兩個核心定價原則：保持價格競爭力並隨著時間的推移實現價格/成本中立，我對我們在執行這些目標的同時保持敏捷的能力充滿信心。正如 D.G 在電話會議開始時提到的那樣，在我們今年取得良好開局之後，我們重申了 2025 年的指導方針。從關稅角度來看，我們已將目前看到的價格/成本影響納入考量，並假設任何以價格/成本中立為基礎的增量定價行動都將被需求下降所抵消。

While the tariff inflation in a vacuum would provide a net tailwind to our business, it is unclear at this stage what the duration of the tariffs will be and what impact they will ultimately have on customer demand. With this, we assume these impacts will offset and are leaving our outlook unchanged, but we'll check and adjust as the year progress. From a seasonal perspective, we expect the year-over-year sales growth will improve slightly in the second quarter, reflecting normal seasonality and including a modest tailwind from the first wave of tariff-related pricing actions that went into effect today.

雖然真空狀態下的關稅上漲會為我們的業務帶來淨順風，但目前尚不清楚關稅的持續時間以及最終會對客戶需求產生什麼影響。因此，我們假設這些影響將會抵消，我們的展望將保持不變，但我們會隨著時間的推移進行檢查和調整。從季節性角度來看，我們預計第二季銷售額將年增速改善，這反映了正常的季節性，也包括今天生效的第一波關稅相關定價行動帶來的適度推動。

Preliminary April sales are up approximately 5.5% on a daily constant currency basis, which includes a 30-basis-point headwind from the timing shift of the Good Friday holiday. All told, we expect the total company sales for the second quarter to be just north of $4.5 billion or approximately 5% on a daily constant currency basis.

以每日固定匯率計算，4 月初步銷售額成長約 5.5%，其中包括耶穌受難日假期時間變化帶來的 30 個基點的逆風。總而言之，我們預計第二季公司總銷售額將略高於 45 億美元，以每日固定匯率計算約為 5%。

From a profitability perspective, there are a number of moving pieces that we know will impact second quarter results. Moving sequentially from the first quarter, we know gross margins will structurally trend downwards, generally in line with normal seasonality. We've layered in the tariff-related price and cost impact that we know of today or can reasonably expect based upon conversations we've had to date with our supplier partners.

從獲利能力的角度來看，我們知道有許多因素會影響第二季的業績。從第一季開始逐季來看，我們知道毛利率將呈現結構性下降趨勢，與正常的季節性基本一致。我們已經將目前所知的或根據我們與供應商合作夥伴迄今為止的對話可以合理預期的與關稅相關的價格和成本影響進行了分層。

On SG&A, we expect some leverage improvement sequentially as productivity and sales leverage partially offset increased costs. We will continue to invest in demand generation. And as with every year, merit increases went live to start the quarter.

對於銷售、一般及行政費用，我們預計槓桿率將有所改善，因為生產力和銷售槓桿部分抵消了成本的增加。我們將繼續投資於需求創造。與往年一樣，績效加薪從本季開始生效。

Further, as we've discussed, some expenses that were planned for the first quarter are shifting to the second, creating a sequential headwind. These items are in addition to the previously discussed noise that occurred in the first quarter from the Grainger Sales Meeting. This impact will flip sequentially in the second quarter and become a headwind to gross margin, but an offsetting tailwind to SG&A.

此外，正如我們所討論的，一些原計劃在第一季支出的支出正在轉移到第二季度，從而造成了連續的阻力。這些項目是先前討論過的第一季 Grainger 銷售會議上出現的噪音的補充。這種影響將在第二季連續轉變，成為毛利率的阻力，但對銷售、一般及行政費用來說卻是抵銷的阻力。

Taking all these moving pieces into account, we are targeting second quarter operating margin to be at or near 15% for the total company. Again, this is obviously a highly fluid environment, but we believe our outlook covers a reasonable set of potential outcomes.

考慮到所有這些變化因素，我們的目標是整個公司在第二季的營業利潤率達到或接近 15%。再一次，這顯然是一個高度不穩定的環境，但我們相信我們的展望涵蓋了一系列合理的潛在結果。

With that, I'll turn it back to D.G.

說完這些，我將把它交還給 D.G。

Thanks, Dee. Overall, I'm encouraged by how the team has managed through what is a very dynamic environment and how we continue to show up for our customers every day.

謝謝，迪。總的來說，團隊如何在如此充滿活力的環境中應對挑戰，以及我們如何繼續每天為客戶提供服務，令我感到鼓舞。

Before I close, I want to take one more opportunity to acknowledge the strength of the Grainger culture. Just four months into the year, we received several recognitions, including World's Most Admired Companies, Glassdoor's Best Places to Work, and for our first time ever, the World's Most Ethical Companies. Each of these achievements are special individually, but together, I believe they showcased by team members choose to grow their careers with Grainger. Congratulations to the team for earning these notable awards.

在結束之前，我想再一次藉此機會承認 Grainger 文化的力量。今年僅過去四個月，我們就獲得了多項認可，包括「全球最受尊敬公司」、Glassdoor「最佳工作場所」以及我們首次獲得的「全球最具商業道德公司」頭銜。這些成就中的每一個都是獨一無二的，但綜合起來，我相信，團隊成員選擇在 Grainger 發展自己的職業生涯，這就是他們所展現的。恭喜團隊獲得這些傑出的獎項。

And with that, I will open it up for Q&A.

接下來我將開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) David Manthey, Baird.

（操作員指示）David Manthey，Baird。

Thank you. First off, let me ask about Zoro. It looked like a great quarter and terrific SG&A leverage there. Is the improvement that you're seeing there just based on stronger-than-expected sales this quarter? Or are you starting to find an equilibrium between revenues and OpEx, so we continue to see a higher level of profitability there?

謝謝。首先，我想問一下關於 Zoro 的問題。這看起來是一個很棒的季度，而且銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 槓桿率極高。您所看到的改善僅是基於本季強於預期的銷售業績嗎？或者您是否開始在收入和營運支出之間找到平衡，以便我們繼續看到更高的獲利水準？

Yes. Most of it is what we think is sustainable revenue growth. So we're seeing nice repeat rates in the business, and that's gotten a lot better. And we don't have to grow expenses with that revenue growth, given where we're at. We're in good shape to get leverage if we can continue to drive that revenue growth.

是的。其中大部分是我們認為的可持續收入成長。因此，我們看到業務的重複率很高，而且情況已經好多了。考慮到我們目前的狀況，我們不必隨著收入的增長而增加支出。如果我們能夠繼續推動營收成長，我們就有很好的優勢獲得槓桿作用。

That's great to hear. And then second, you've, in the past, said that you could achieve 20% consolidated contribution margin at kind of a mid-single-digit rate of growth or higher. If we have the situation where volume and tariff-driven pricing net each other out, is it possible you could do that at a slightly lower rate because price is coming through at a higher contribution margin?

聽到這個消息真是太好了。其次，您過去曾說過，您可以以中等個位數或更高的成長率實現 20% 的綜合貢獻利潤率。如果我們遇到數量和關稅驅動定價相互抵消的情況，那麼您是否可以以略低的費率做到這一點，因為價格是透過更高的貢獻利潤率來實現的？

The short answer is, yes, that is true. Obviously, if you don't have significant demand degradation with the increased prices, then yes, we would have a lower rate of growth to get that through -- pull-through.

簡短的回答是，是的，確實如此。顯然，如果價格上漲後需求沒有顯著下降，那麼是的，我們會採用較低的成長率來實現這一目標——拉動成長。

Jacob Levinson, Melius Research.

Jacob Levinson，Melius Research。

You folks have quite a broad product offering here. But can you maybe just speak to your -- I guess, your ability to flex your sourcing given the tariff headwinds and maybe how you're balancing that versus taking up price, especially given all the inflation we had over the past few years?

你們這裡提供的產品種類相當豐富。但是，您能否談談——我想，在關稅不利的情況下，您是否有能力靈活調整採購，以及您如何在這種能力與提高價格之間取得平衡，尤其是考慮到過去幾年的通貨膨脹？

Yes. So the good news is we've done a lot of work to understand sources and alternative sources. We've already moved some things over the last few years to allow us to have a more resilient supply chain. The challenge is there are certain categories for which there are really no alternatives. Where everything comes from China, for instance. And so that gets harder because that takes time, a lot of time in some cases, to actually move somewhere else. We're talking with our own suppliers on private brand and our brand suppliers, and we're hearing people talk about potentially moving things, but it's not immediate.

是的。好消息是我們已經做了很多工作來了解來源和替代來源。過去幾年來，我們已經採取了一些措施，以使我們擁有更具彈性的供應鏈。挑戰在於某些類別確實沒有其他選擇。例如，所有東西都來自中國。因此，這變得更加困難，因為這需要時間，在某些情況下，需要花費大量時間才能真正轉移到其他地方。我們正在與自己的供應商就自有品牌和我們的品牌供應商進行談判，我們聽到人們談論潛在的轉移，但這不會立即發生。

Our hope is that we don't completely shut down trade between China and the US for a long period of time because obviously, we wouldn't have everything we need to support our customers. We do have inventory on hand, and we're doing some creative things to make sure we have the right inventory to support our customers without taking extra cost on. And I think that's probably the trick right now, and our team is working very hard to make that happen.

我們希望不要長期完全切斷中美之間的貿易，因為顯然，我們將無法提供客戶所需的一切支援。我們確實有庫存，我們正在採取一些創造性的措施，以確保我們有合適的庫存來支援我們的客戶，而無需承擔額外的成本。我認為這可能是目前的訣竅，我們的團隊正在努力實現這一目標。

Okay. That's helpful. And is that -- I mean, is that applied to your private label offering? Or maybe to say it a different way, I assume the economics change quite a bit with the tariffs as they stand today?

好的。這很有幫助。這是—我的意思是，這適用於您的自有品牌產品嗎？或者換一種說法，我認為目前的關稅將對經濟產生很大影響？

They do. I mean, I'll give you one hypothetical example that plays out a lot. It depends, of course, whether or not the national brand and the private brand are only produced in the same location or whether there's alternatives. But -- in an example, if a private brand product is made in China and the national brand is made in Indonesia, let's say, if there's different tariffs, that can change the economics and we could be in a position where the private brand doesn't really make any sense anymore and raising the price there would actually just stop all volume. And so there are some cases like that, there are some cases that aren't like that, and you have to do it on a case-by-case basis.

確實如此。我的意思是，我會給你一個經常發生的假設例子。當然，這取決於國家品牌和自有品牌是否只在同一地點生產，或者是否有替代品。但是——舉個例子，如果一個自有品牌產品在中國生產，而國家品牌在印尼生產，假設關稅不同，那麼經濟狀況就會發生改變，我們可能會處於一個自有品牌不再有任何意義的境地，而提高價格實際上只會停止所有銷售。有些情況是這樣的，有些情況則不是這樣的，你必須根據具體情況來處理。

Okay. That's great.

好的。那太棒了。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

I wanted to start off just high level on the macro. It sounds like you haven't seen any slowdown yet in the business, just based on the guide you gave for daily sales. And then D.G., I don't know what -- any feedback that you found interesting when you're speaking with customers as it relates to the outlook and what people are concerned about?

我只想從宏觀層面開始。從您給出的每日銷售額指南來看，聽起來您還沒有看到業務有任何放緩跡象。然後 D.G.，我不知道——當您與客戶交談時，您發現任何與前景和人們關心的問題有關的有趣的反饋嗎？

Yes. So actually, we've seen -- as the year has gone, we've seen actually some accelerated growth, April was our best month yet. So we haven't seen any slowdown yet. That said, the way this works on the tariffs is it takes -- we have inventory, obviously, and it takes months for that to sort of flow through. So we wouldn't expect to see any tariff-related impact on demand yet. And probably starting this quarter, we might do a little bit, but we don't think it's going to be that much, and more would happen later depending on how things shake out, and there's a lot of uncertainty there.

是的。所以實際上，我們已經看到——隨著時間的推移，我們實際上看到了一些加速成長，四月是我們迄今為止最好的月份。所以我們還沒有看到任何放緩。話雖如此，關稅的運作方式是——顯然，我們有庫存，而且需要幾個月的時間才能流通。因此，我們預計目前還不會看到關稅對需求產生任何影響。可能從本季開始，我們可能會採取一些行動，但我們認為不會太多，以後還會有更多行動，這取決於事態發展，而且這其中存在許多不確定性。

I'd say -- I think most customers are embedding modest tariffs into their thinking. They don't expect it to be significant trade challenges. They think they're going to be able to get product at this point, and they're really focused on running their operations and keeping their people safe and doing the things that they do every day. There haven't been a lot of conversations about tariffs specifically with my customer interactions. And I think that's primarily because I think this likely gets worked out some way, but nobody knows which way.

我想說的是——我認為大多數客戶都已經將適度的關稅納入了他們的考慮範圍。他們並不認為這會是重大的貿易挑戰。他們認為此時他們能夠獲得產品，並且他們真正專注於營運、保障員工安全以及做好每天要做的事情。當我與客戶互動時，關於關稅的討論並不多。我認為這主要是因為我認為這可能會以某種方式解決，但沒人知道是哪種方式。

Yes. Okay. And then second question is on tariffs. I just want to make sure I heard the message right. It sounds like on May 1, you put through a price increase, but it was only for the direct imports that you're bringing in and you're sort of waiting to see what the suppliers do and you'll have an update on what that price increase might be, what, next quarter?

是的。好的。第二個問題是關於關稅。我只是想確保我聽到的信息是正確的。聽起來你們在 5 月 1 日就提高了價格，但這只針對你們直接進口的商品，你們正在等待供應商的反應，然後才會知道下個季度價格可能會上漲多少？

Yes. Next quarter, we will -- what I would say is mostly just our direct imports. There are few suppliers that came with increases, and we put those through as well. But generally, it's -- on the whole, it's very modest. For some specific products, it's significant. Thank you.

是的。下個季度，我想說的主要是直接進口。有少數供應商提出漲價，我們也滿足了他們的要求。但總體來說，它非常謙虛。對於某些特定產品來說，這很重要。謝謝。

Christopher Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯多福·史奈德。

Just following up on tariffs, maybe no surprise. Did you guys -- have you guys -- did you guys provide anything in the prepared remarks just around how much price is flowing through from what's been announced to date, including some of the early action on 232 in China and then what we got here on the direct imports in May? And you guys did not change the gross margin guidance. Is that just an assumption that gross margin can be held through this period of higher cost inflation?

只是跟進關稅，也許並不意外。你們在準備好的評論中是否提供了任何關於迄今為止宣布的價格流動情況的信息，包括中國對 232 的一些早期行動，以及我們在 5 月份直接進口的情況？你們並沒有改變毛利率指引。這是否只是一種假設，即在成本通膨較高的時期，毛利率可以維持穩定？

Chris, so yes, we didn't prepare -- in the prepared remarks, we didn't state a specific number. But we did note that we put through increases related to the tariffs mainly on imported products, and D.G just noted a few other national brand suppliers. We believe that impact will be about 1% to 1.5% net impact for us. So he knows it’s fairly modest.

克里斯，是的，我們沒有準備好——在準備好的評論中，我們沒有說出具體的數字。但我們確實注意到，我們主要針對進口產品提高了關稅，而 D.G 只是提到了其他一些國家品牌供應商。我們認為，這種影響對我們來說將達到約 1% 至 1.5% 的淨影響。所以他知道這是相當謙虛的。

And then when you look at the gross margin outlook for the year, we did a little bit better. In the first quarter, we've taken some price that we know of. We are going to continue to target price/cost neutrality over time. Within that price/cost neutrality, D.G just gave an example of where in some cases, because -- and if some of these very significant tariffs sustain over a period of time, we're going to have to come back and revisit how we price our product generally, but the goal will be to achieve that price/cost neutrality over time.

然後，當您查看今年的毛利率前景時，我們的表現會更好一些。在第一季度，我們已經確定了一些我們已知的價格。我們將繼續致力於價格/成本中立。在價格/成本中立的範圍內，D.G 只是舉了一個例子，在某些情況下，因為——如果其中一些非常重要的關稅持續一段時間，我們將不得不回過頭來重新審視我們的產品定價方式，但目標是隨著時間的推移實現價格/成本中立。

And due to the noise and the scenarios we have run, we believe, based upon the range and in line with the guidance for the year, that is something that we should still be able to hit. But again, more to come. We feel like we're going to learn a lot in the second quarter. More negotiations will be completed, and we'll get a read on price elasticity as well.

並且由於我們已經遇到的噪音和場景，我們相信，基於範圍並按照今年的指導，我們仍然應該能夠實現這一目標。但同樣，未來還會有更多。我們覺得我們將在第二季度學到很多東西。將會完成更多談判，我們也將了解價格彈性。

I appreciate that. And then maybe just following up on your commentary earlier around the benchmark, maybe not being the right benchmark at this period of time. I guess, why does the company think IP is the best way to benchmark volumes? Manufacturing is only, I think, about 30% of the mix. I just wonder, could GDP be a better benchmark to go volumes against? I mean, I wonder if some of the dislocation we're seeing between IP and GDP could be causing some of that performance?

我很感激。然後也許只是按照您之前對基準的評論進行跟進，也許這不是當前時期的正確基準。我猜，為什麼公司認為 IP 是衡量銷售量的最佳方式？我認為，製造業只佔其中的 30% 左右。我只是想知道，GDP 是否可以成為衡量數量的更好的基準？我的意思是，我想知道我們看到的 IP 和 GDP 之間的一些錯位是否會導致部分錶現不佳？

Yes. No, I appreciate the question. So a couple of things. What's not changing? We aren't changing our expectation of what market growth is going to be this year from a volume basis. We aren't changing our revenue projection. We aren't changing the fact that we think outgrowth, particularly on a volume basis, is critical for us to be successful long term. And we aren't changing our target.

是的。不，我很感謝你提出這個問題。有幾件事。什麼沒有改變？我們不會改變對今年市場成長從數量上來看的預期。我們不會改變我們的收入預測。我們不會改變這樣的事實：我們認為成長，特別是在數量上的成長，對於我們長期成功至關重要。我們不會改變我們的目標。

But what we're seeing right now -- so historically, IT manufacturing has been, I would say, close enough. We know it's not perfect. Our internal model takes into account things like government spending, trade flows, those types of things. It's much more accurate, but it was close enough and easy for everybody to understand.

但我們現在看到的情況是——從歷史上看，IT 製造業已經夠接近了。我們知道它並不完美。我們的內部模型考慮了政府支出、貿易流量等因素。它更加準確，但又足夠接近並且易於每個人理解。

What happened here is those two have really gotten to a different place this quarter. And as we look at sort of how we're performing around the competitive set, similarly, we're seeing more positive things for us than that metric would suggest. So given the noise, we're just going to focus on the annual number. We'll get back to you. You're right, there's probably -- there is -- we know there's a better one. I mean, our internal model is more accurate. We can explain it to you, but it's relatively complicated. And so we've tried to keep things simple in the past, and that's been our goal.

這裡發生的事情是，這兩個人在本季度確實已經到達了不同的境地。當我們觀察我們在競爭對手中的表現時，同樣地，我們看到了比該指標所顯示的更多的積極因素。因此，考慮到這些噪音，我們只會關注年度數字。我們會回覆您。你說得對，可能有——有——我們知道有更好的。我的意思是，我們的內部模型更加準確。我們可以向您解釋，但是相對比較複雜。因此，我們過去一直試圖讓事情保持簡單，這就是我們的目標。

Tommy Moll, Stephens Inc.

湯米·莫爾（Tommy Moll），史蒂芬斯公司

I wanted to circle back to your comments around the private label portfolio. If you think holistically there, is it relatively more tied to China? And if we do end up with persistently elevated tariffs there, how much risk to profit dollars, if any, is there to the extent you see customers as you indicated in the example, shift away from private label to a national brand?

我想回到您對自有品牌組合的評論。如果從整體來看，它是否與中國有更密切的聯繫？如果我們最終確實持續提高關稅，那麼在您看到客戶（如您在例子中指出的那樣）從自有品牌轉向國家品牌的情況下，利潤會面臨多大的風險（如果有的話）？

Yes. So I would say that certainly, private brand is more China-centric than the national brands, but not as much different as you might think, actually. There's a lot of national brands with the same China exposure in the same categories.

是的。所以我想說，自有品牌確實比國家品牌更以中國為中心，但實際上差異並沒有你想像的那麼大。許多國內品牌在相同類別中都具有相同的中國曝光度。

So we -- the short answer is we think we can navigate around our private brands. Obviously, if this level of tariff were to persist, I think we get into supply challenges for big categories that are really important. To our customers, and there may not be other sources. I think that's probably the biggest risk right now.

因此，簡而言之，我們認為我們可以繞過我們的自有品牌。顯然，如果這種關稅水準持續下去，我認為我們將面臨真正重要的大類產品的供應挑戰。對於我們的客戶來說，可能沒有其他來源。我認為這可能是目前最大的風險。

If certain categories become un-cost competitive or not cost competitive in China, we can move them to other locations in some cases or just focus on the national brand. And I don't think it would be a huge deal overall. It would be a modest pressure, but not huge.

如果某些類別在中國變得不具成本競爭力，我們可以在某些情況下將其轉移到其他地方，或只專注於國家品牌。而我認為整體來說這不是什麼大問題。這將是適度的壓力，但不是很大。

But the issue here is going to be, do we actually continue to trade effectively with China? If we do, I think we can navigate things. If we don't, there's going to be some categories that are really difficult to get our hands on.

但這裡的問題是，我們是否真的能繼續與中國進行有效的貿易？如果我們這樣做，我認為我們就能解決問題。如果我們不這樣做，有些類別就很難得到。

Only other thing I would add is that we don't feel like we have a unique situation here. So this wouldn't be any different for us than anyone else we're competing with. That's the only piece I would add there, Tommy.

我唯一想補充的是，我們並不覺得我們這裡的情況很獨特。因此，對我們來說，這與我們競爭對手沒有任何不同。這是我唯一要添加的部分，湯米。

Yes. And the other thing on that is we've looked at where we have unique exposure and it's almost nothing. It's very, very low. And so everybody is in the same boat here, for sure.

是的。另一件事是，我們已經研究過我們獨特的曝光機會，但幾乎沒有。它非常非常低。所以，這裡每個人肯定都處於同樣的境地。

Yes. D.G., in recent periods, or I should say, previous periods of market volatility, Grainger has been able to capture significant market share. And there's probably a whole host of reasons for that. But just as a simple example -- I'm thinking about few years ago, when the supply chain was disrupted, you were able to exploit your scale and buying power to serve customers better than some of the smaller peers, for example. But if you think about the current environment, are there new lanes that you're identifying where you can lean in and once again, exploit some of the scale and sophistication that you've built over your years as CEO?

是的。D.G.，在最近一段時間，或者應該說，以前的市場波動時期，格蘭傑已經能夠佔據相當大的市場份額。這可能有很多原因。但舉一個簡單的例子——我想到幾年前，當供應鏈中斷時，你能夠利用你的規模和購買力來比一些較小的同行更好地為客戶服務。但是，如果您考慮當前的環境，您是否發現了一些新的途徑，您可以利用這些途徑，並再次利用您多年來擔任執行長所建立的一些規模和成熟度？

Yes. I think we're -- like I said before, I think we're in a good place in terms of understanding the options. I would say similar to when we went into COVID, our expectation was -- we're not trying to win any dip. We're trying to win through the cycle. And I think that allowed us to invest and gain share. We're talking about it similarly now. Are there ways for us to gain share coming through whatever happens here?

是的。我認為我們——就像我之前說的，我認為我們在理解這些選擇方面處於一個很好的位置。我想說的是，與我們進入 COVID 時類似，我們的預期是——我們不會試圖贏得任何勝利。我們正在努力贏得整個週期。我認為這使我們能夠投資並獲得份額。我們現在正在以類似的方式談論它。無論發生什麼，我們是否有辦法獲得市場佔有率？

I'd say it's -- with COVID and the supply shortages, it was pretty obvious, what was going on. I'd say this is pretty uncertain still. We're probably going to let this play out for a few more months to understand really what the rules of the game are. But certainly, I do feel like we will be in a good position to drive some share gain through this process.

我想說的是——由於新冠疫情和供應短缺，發生的事情非常明顯。我想說這仍然很不確定。我們可能還需要幾個月的時間才能真正了解遊戲規則。但我確實覺得，透過這個過程，我們將處於有利地位，推動一些份額的成長。

Ryan Cooke, Wolfe Research.

瑞安·庫克（Ryan Cooke），沃爾夫研究公司。

Maybe we could just touch on some of the moving pieces in your guide. I understand that you left the high-level framework unchanged. But I'm curious if there's been any push and pull between HTS and EA coming out of the quarter?

也許我們可以談談您的指南中的一些動人之處。我了解到您沒有改變高層框架。但我很好奇本季 HTS 和 EA 之間是否存在任何拉鋸戰？

And also, if you could just help parse out price versus volume expectations? I think you had said earlier in Q&A that market volume outlook remains unchanged, but presumably, you'd be looking at you no longer be looking at minimal price for the year. So maybe if you could just touch on that?

另外，您能否幫忙分析價格與銷售預期？我想您之前在問答中說過，市場交易量前景保持不變，但想必您不再關註今年的最低價格。那你能不能談談這一點？

Yes. So you're correct in the fact that there are a lot of moving pieces, which is one of the reasons when we looked at scenarios, the pieces we're moving so much, whether it was gross margin. The revenue outlook is the price that we could actually feel certain about at this point in time.

是的。所以你說得對，確實有很多變動的部分，這也是我們在研究情境時，這些部分變動如此之大的原因之一，無論是毛利率還是其他因素。收入前景是我們目前能夠決定的價格。

And then the leverage that we can probably drive for the rest of the year, we actually zoomed out and just said, okay, let's look at our seasonal trends, let's base our outlook and guide, if we're going to look at it on what we actually know and can understand. And that got us back to really holding the guide that we had laid out earlier in the year.

然後，我們實際上縮小了範圍，只是說，好吧，讓我們看看我們的季節性趨勢，讓我們以我們的展望和指導為基礎，如果我們要根據我們實際了解和能夠理解的內容來看待它。這讓我們真正回到了今年早些時候制定的指南。

There are some pieces, as you know, FX has moved a little bit differently. But we started off the year well, which helps us put 1/4 of that in the bank. Gross margin was stable. And we're on our way to pass price and attempt to reach neutrality on the things that we actually knew. So that helps from a GP perspective.

如你所知，FX 在某些方面做出了一些改變。但我們今年的開局很好，這幫助我們將其中的四分之一存入銀行。毛利率穩定。我們正在努力傳遞價格並嘗試對我們實際了解的事情保持中立。從 GP 的角度來看，這是有幫助的。

You called out that EA did really well, and it is growing faster than the High-Touch business, which generally at that -- at those margin rates, creates a headwind for us. But again, we were not necessarily incorporating potentially some of the upside that we may see from price over time. And so those things kind of canceled themselves out.

您說 EA 表現確實很好，而且它的成長速度比 High-Touch 業務更快，而 High-Touch 業務在這樣的利潤率下通常會給我們帶來阻力。但同樣，我們不一定會將價格隨時間推移可能出現的一些上漲潛力納入考量。所以這些事情就互相抵銷了。

So I guess the point I would like you to walk away with is we understand the dynamics of the business and what could happen. We have modeled several scenarios, including EA continuing to move fast in this -- grow well in this market.

所以我想我希望你們明白的一點是，我們了解業務的動態以及可能發生的事情。我們已經模擬了幾種場景，包括 EA 繼續在這個市場上快速發展——良好成長。

But also, I will point you back to some of our regional assumptions related to the market. We knew that the administration was going to pass tariffs. We couldn't size them, but we did estimate that the market would most likely be down from a volume perspective or flat. And it looks like it is playing out that way. And so we've kept that assumption in mind as well.

但同時，我也會向您指出我們與市場相關的一些區域假設。我們知道政府將會通過關稅。我們無法確定其規模，但我們確實估計，從交易量來看，市場很可能會下滑或持平。看起來事情確實正在朝著這個方向發展。因此我們也一直牢記這個假設。

So again, we feel like we're in a good place. Any incremental price, we feel like we're going to be able to pass on as long it's not too significant. But since we have been through several cycles of pretty high inflation, at some point, that's going to start to impact the demand, and we're thinking about that and being conservative as we think about the rest of the year.

因此，我們再次感覺到我們處於一個很好的位置。對於任何增量價格，只要不是太大，我們覺得我們都可以轉嫁。但由於我們已經經歷了幾輪相當高的通膨週期，在某種程度上，這將開始影響需求，我們正在考慮這一點，並在考慮今年剩餘時間時採取保守態度。

That's very clear. Thank you, Dee. And FX was actually going to be my next question. So it sounds like there could be a little upside there given moves in the dollar. But okay.

這非常清楚。謝謝你，迪。FX 其實就是我的下一個問題。因此，考慮到美元的走勢，這聽起來可能會有一點上行空間。不過好吧。

So I guess for my second question, we've covered a lot of ground on pricing and tariffs. Maybe if you could just touch on health of the customer groups and any notable trends that you'd highlight? I know government is a chunky exposure for you. So are we still seeing kind of no impact from DOGE or stimulus roll back there?

所以我想對於我的第二個問題，我們已經討論了很多關於定價和關稅的問題。也許您可以談談客戶群的健康狀況以及您想強調的任何顯著趨勢？我知道政府對你來說是一個沉重的負擔。那麼，我們是否仍看不到 DOGE 或刺激措施的影響呢？

No. This is what I'd say is we're seeing all kinds of impacts at a subsegment level. There were markets that were very, very strong in the quarter.

不。我想說的是，我們在細分市場層面看到了各種影響。本季市場表現非常強勁。

You specific -- I'll comment on government. We think it was relatively weak to start the year. And we're not as exposed to DOGE, given we're mostly military and state, but a little bit of business that we have that would be exposed. Certainly, that was a little slower. So we did see that. But net-net, and there's nothing -- there's a lot of movements, but nothing dramatic to really describe at this point.

您具體說來—我將對政府發表評論。我們認為今年年初的情況相對較弱。而且，由於我們主要面向軍隊和政府，因此我們不太容易受到 DOGE 的影響，但我們的一些業務可能會受到影響。當然，這有點慢。我們確實看到了這一點。但總體而言，沒有什麼——有很多動作，但目前沒有什麼戲劇性的東西可以真正描述。

I would say certain manufacturing segments were very, very strong. Aerospace, as an example, was very strong in the quarter. But other than that, not much to really talk about.

我想說某些製造業領域非常非常強勁。例如，航空航太業在本季表現非常強勁。但除此之外，沒有什麼好談的。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I'm going back to page 12 and the pie chart on the geographic mix, I would have thought China was much higher. And so has that changed meaningfully, let's say, in the last five years? And then also, how does that mix look differently versus your channel partners versus private label? Maybe I was thinking the private label is much higher China source.

謝謝。大家早安。我回到第 12 頁並查看地理分佈餅圖，我原以為中國的比例要高得多。那麼，在過去五年裡，這種情況是否發生了有意義的變化？那麼，與您的通路夥伴和自有品牌相比，這種組合有何不同？也許我認為自有品牌在中國的來源要高得多。

The private label is much -- yes, that's right. The private label has much higher China source. This is sort of end production location as well. So what to note about this is just sort of the end production COGS by region. Certainly, there will be some componentry that we don't capture in our branded product that comes from China. So that number will be higher when we look at that. We know some of that, we don't know all of that. So this is just end production at this point.

自有品牌很多——是的，沒錯。自有品牌在中國的來源率較高。這也是一種最終生產地點。因此，需要注意的是按地區劃分的最終生產成本。當然，我們的品牌產品中會有一些來自中國的零件沒有包括在內。因此，當我們考慮這一點時，這個數字將會更高。我們知道其中的一些，但並不知道全部。所以這只是目前的最終生產。

And it's actually -- China has gone down a little bit over the last several years. Not fast, but it has gone down a little bit. There's been a shift to Vietnam, as an example, for some categories. Mexico picked up a little bit.

事實上——過去幾年中國經濟略為下滑。雖然不快，但還是下降了一點。例如，某些類別的產品已轉移到越南。墨西哥的情況略有好轉。

All right. Good. That was really helpful. And D.G., I know you were dismissive last quarter that there might be any prepositioning by customers ahead of tariffs and doesn't appear like that happened. But I was interested if you all have done anything differently in terms of sourcing volumes ahead of tariffs? It doesn't look like it in your free cash flow, but just -- have you been tempted to try to get out in front of any of this? But some color there would be great.

好的。好的。這真的很有幫助。D.G.，我知道您上個季度不相信客戶會在關稅前做出任何預先準備，但看起來這種情況並沒有發生。但我感興趣的是，你們在關稅上調之前在採購量方面是否做了不同的事情？在您的自由現金流中看起來似乎並非如此，但是——您是否曾經想過嘗試擺脫這一切？但有些顏色會很棒。

Yes, not much. I mean, we placed pretty strong orders for Chinese New Year to make sure we got service right and got out in front of service on private brand products. And then we're doing some things for things that were on the water, for example, to hold them so that we don't take them at a deflated cost, but we still have them accessible when we need them for customers. So we are doing some things. But generally, we haven't done that much that would show up.

是的，不多。我的意思是，我們為農曆新年下了相當多的訂單，以確保我們提供正確的服務，並在自有品牌產品的服務上處於領先地位。然後，我們正在對水上的東西做一些事情，例如，把它們保管起來，這樣我們就不會以較低的成本收取它們，但當客戶需要它們時，我們仍然可以使用它們。所以我們正在做一些事情。但整體來說，我們做的並沒有太多值得關注的事情。

Great. And just last one is an observation. I appreciate all of your candor in the outgrowth kind of the consternation between the two models. And as much as I would love to have real-time outgrowth updates from you all, getting an annual number, I think, is fine. And it would be great if you could revisit those differences at year-end, but I would appreciate it.

偉大的。最後一個是觀察。我感謝你們在談到這兩種模式之間的分歧時所表現出的坦率態度。儘管我很想從大家那裡獲得即時的成長更新，但我認為獲得年度數字就可以了。如果您能在年底重新審視這些差異，那就太好了，我將不勝感激。

Great. Thank you. Appreciate it.

偉大的。謝謝。非常感謝。

Sabrina Abrams, Bank of America.

美國銀行的薩布麗娜‧艾布拉姆斯 (Sabrina Abrams)。

Thanks for the question. I'm going to go back to the price and tariffs. So I guess, I think you mentioned that it was 1% to 1.5% net impact in 2Q. And I guess I'm just curious, so if I understand, like maybe not -- it's not all -- not -- you haven't raised prices on everything at this point based on the tariffs. But just like if I think about the China COGS and the percentage of China imports to the US, I think I get -- so with the 145% tariff, I think I get to a very robust price increase like something in like the mid-teens level?

謝謝你的提問。我要回到價格和關稅問題。所以我想，我認為您提到第二季的淨影響是 1% 到 1.5%。我想我只是好奇，所以如果我理解得沒錯的話，可能不是——不是全部——不是——你目前還沒有根據關稅提高所有商品的價格。但是，如果我考慮中國的銷貨成本和中國對美國的進口比例，我想我會明白——那麼，在 145% 的關稅下，我認為價格會大幅上漲，例如十五六個百分點？

And I guess, just curious how to sort of bridge from the 1% to 1.5% to what's implied just by like China alone and like the mid-high teens. And I guess, like, yes, just thinking about like the different, I guess, like getting from 1% to 1.5%, maybe it goes higher in the second half and how to think about like the price increases on China. And like if care if we do stay in place, like do we see pricing reach like 16%, 17%, 20% plus in your business?

我想，我只是好奇如何將 1% 到 1.5% 連接到僅由中國和十幾歲的青少年所暗示的水平。我想，是的，只是想想不同之處，例如從 1% 到 1.5%，也許下半年會更高，以及如何考慮中國的價格上漲。如果我們確實保持現狀，我們是否會看到價格在您的業務中達到 16%、17%、20% 以上？

Yes. Yes. So -- just as a reminder, the tariffs that we took were on direct imports, meeting our own private brands mostly. We took a few increases on national brand product, but mostly it was our own product, and that's a relatively smaller portion of the product. And certainly, some of those products did increase into the mid-teens. That is true. But as a percent of the whole, that's pretty small. And so that's where you get the 1% to 1.5% now.

是的。是的。所以——提醒一下，我們徵收的關稅是針對直接進口的，主要針對我們自己的自有品牌。我們對一些國家品牌產品進行了提價，但主要是我們自己的產品，而且這只佔產品總量的一小部分。當然，其中一些產品的售價確實上漲到了十幾歲。確實如此。但作為整體的百分比，這個數字相當小。這就是現在得到的 1% 到 1.5% 的數值。

If -- and this does not contemplate any of the 145%. Obviously, that is a different thing altogether. And if we had to price that in and if our suppliers had to price it in, it would be quite a change. And so right now, the behavior we're seeing for our suppliers, they know that if they take the prices up that much, they're not going to sell anything, in some cases. And so we're working through -- everybody is sort of working through what's going to happen and how we're going to handle that. But so far, it's been relatively modest.

如果——並且這不考慮 145% 中的任何一項。顯然，這是完全不同的事。如果我們必須將其計入價格，並且我們的供應商也必須將其計入價格，那麼這將是一個很大的變化。所以現在，我們看到供應商的行為是，他們知道，如果他們把價格提高那麼多，在某些情況下，他們將什麼也賣不出去。所以我們正在努力——每個人都在努力思考會發生什麼以及我們將如何處理。但到目前為止，這項增幅還相對溫和。

That makes sense. And then could you just provide a little more color on the price/cost dynamics through the year? I think there's a comment on the slide about it being lumpy. But just want to understand expectations around price/cost in 2Q and sort of how that cadence trends through the year.

這很有道理。那麼，您能否更詳細地介紹一下全年的價格/成本動態？我認為幻燈片上有一條評論說它很粗糙。但只是想了解第二季的價格/成本預期以及全年的節奏趨勢。

Yes. Thanks for the question. And -- so -- just -- I would say I continue what D.G started with. At the highest level, there's a lot of noise in the news about inflation. However, on the ground, things are moving a whole lot slower. And so the reason why we took the step to take the increases that we did is because those are more known, they've been negotiated, and some of those standard costs in our system are being changed, and thus, the price is being changed.

是的。謝謝你的提問。所以，我只是在說，我將繼續 D.G 所做的事情。在最高層面，有關通貨膨脹的新聞很多。然而，在實際操作中，事情的進展卻慢得多。我們之所以採取措施提高價格，是因為這些價格更為人所知，已經經過了協商，而且我們系統中的一些標準成本正在發生變化，因此價格也在改變。

And so we did layer in this first path of price inflation, and that will have an impact -- a slight impact because it is modest on the second quarter. But there's a lot of puts and takes related to, I would say, price, gross margin and profitability as we go from Q1 to Q2. As you know, from Q1 to Q2, structurally, gross margins usually trend downward in the second quarter. We layered on the tariffs from that perspective.

因此，我們確實將價格通膨的第一條路徑考慮在內，這將產生影響——影響很小，因為對第二季度的影響不大。但我想說，從第一季到第二季度，價格、毛利率和獲利能力方面存在著許多利弊。大家知道，從第一季到第二季度，從結構來看，第二季的毛利率通常呈現下降趨勢。我們從這個角度出發對關稅進行了分層調整。

And then SG&A, there's also quite a bit of noise. We expect to gain some leverage as we move sequentially from Q1 to Q2. And the prepared remarks, I noted that some of the favorability from Q1 SG&A flows into Q2. So that will be a headwind. And then we have this noise with the Grainger Sales Meeting. That also impacts us both on gross margin and operating margin.

然後是銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)，也存在相當多的噪音。隨著我們從第一季逐步進入第二季度，我們預計會獲得一些優勢。在準備好的評論中，我注意到第一季銷售、行政和管理費用中的一些有利因素流入了第二季。所以這將是一個阻力。然後我們在 Grainger 銷售會議上聽到了這種聲音。這也對我們的毛利率和營業利潤率產生了影響。

So I wanted to point everyone to the fact that we expected for the second quarter operating margin to be about 15% because it is so noisy. It's kind of hard to follow all the noise and some of the things straight through.

因此我想向大家指出，我們預計第二季的營業利潤率約為 15%，因為情況非常吵雜。很難直接追蹤所有的噪音和一些事情。

But as you think about the rest of the year, if tariffs remain modest as we continue to work through negotiations, we feel like we'll be able to manage that from a price/cost perspective. There may be some timing differences, but we will provide you that insight as we do on a quarter basis on how things are trending. And we feel like the overall guide still holds intact from an operating margin range including operating cash flow and some of our other expenditures like CapEx, share repurchase and the announced dividend that we just had.

但當你考慮今年剩餘時間的情況時，如果隨著我們繼續談判，關稅仍然保持適度，我們覺得我們將能夠從價格/成本的角度來管理這一點。可能會存在一些時間差異，但我們會按照季度的方式向您提供關於事態發展趨勢的見解。我們認為，從營業利潤率範圍來看，包括營業現金流和我們的一些其他支出（如資本支出、股票回購和我們剛剛宣布的股息），整體指導仍然保持不變。

Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer & Company.

克里斯多福‧格林（Christopher Glynn），奧本海默公司。

Yes. So going back to the Zoro strength, I know it's in a different growth ZIP code from HTS, but the spread of growth is pretty unique historically. So I'm just curious, if we were in like a 3% to 4% HTS environment, would you be expecting Zoro to be putting up 25% to 30%? Is there a multiplier around end market increments to the upside?

是的。因此，回到 Zoro 的實力，我知道它與 HTS 處於不同的成長郵遞區號中，但從歷史上看，其成長範圍非常獨特。所以我很好奇，如果我們處於 3% 到 4% 的 HTS 環境中，您是否預計 Zoro 會提高 25% 到 30%？終端市場增量是否存在上行乘數？

No. What I would say is I generally focus on different end markets. And so Zoro's growth is typically its ability to acquire high-quality customers that are more midsize and smaller and then to get them to repeat. And most of their growth, frankly, is in their hands. And so they really haven't linked to High-Touch, given High-Touch is focused on more industrial larger customers. With all kinds of added services, Zoro is a business that's very much a marketing-focused business trying to gain share with those midsize and smaller companies.

不。我想說的是，我通常關注不同的終端市場。因此，Zoro 的成長通常取決於其獲得中型和小型高品質客戶並讓他們重複購買的能力。坦白說，他們的大部分成長都掌握在他們手中。因此，他們實際上並沒有與 High-Touch 建立聯繫，因為 High-Touch 專注於更多的工業大客戶。Zoro 提供各種附加服務，是一家非常注重行銷的公司，致力於從中型和小型公司手中搶佔市場份額。

Okay. Great. And then just within the US, D.G., any interesting divergences geographically, regions within the US?

好的。偉大的。那麼僅就美國而言，D.G.，美國境內的地理區域是否存在有趣的差異？

Not that we've seen. We haven't seen anything really that interesting there.

據我們所知還沒有。我們還沒有在那裡看到任何真正有趣的東西。

Katie Fleischer, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

凱蒂‧弗萊舍 (Katie Fleischer)，KeyBanc 資本市場。

I just have one question here. Is there any way to quantify the amount of price increase requests that you have gotten from your suppliers? And how long that will take to flow through to the P&L?

我這裡只有一個問題。有什麼方法可以量化您從供應商收到的漲價請求數量嗎？這需要多長時間才能流入損益表？

So we probably won't talk about the amount of increased requests. They've been all over the map, I will say that. So we've had some very high and some modest ones.

所以我們可能不會談論增加的請求數量。我要說的是，他們的足跡遍布各地。因此，我們的目標有的很高，有的很適中。

Flowing through the P&L, though, I think, is an interesting question. We typically have, say, three months’ worth of inventory already. And so it does take a while for this to flow through, and we have to place the orders and then we actually have to receive the orders for the cost to change. And so it will take some time. We will see a little bit of that in the second quarter. But I'd say more of it in the third quarter and beyond, we'll start to see that flow through.

不過，我認為，流經損益表是一個有趣的問題。我們通常已經有三個月的庫存了。所以這確實需要一段時間才能完成，我們必須下訂單，然後我們實際上必須收到訂單才能改變成本。所以這需要一些時間。我們將在第二季度看到一些這樣的情況。但我想說，在第三季及以後，我們將開始看到這種趨勢的出現。

Patrick Baumann, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的派崔克‧鮑曼。

On the comparison of branded versus private label product, is there a rule of thumb or an average where your private label competes with a branded product, like what percent discount and price the private label brand is to the branded product? And then what the difference is in gross margin between them?

在品牌產品與自有品牌產品的比較中，是否存在一個經驗法則或平均值來衡量您的自有品牌與品牌產品的競爭情況，例如自有品牌相對於品牌產品的折扣和價格百分比是多少？那麼它們之間的毛利率有什麼差別呢？

And then in terms of -- I know you've probably looked at this very detailed. Is there a percentage risk that you're thinking about as a percentage of your private label portfolio that's sourced from China that would be noncompetitive if the tariffs held at the 145% number?

然後就——我知道你可能已經非常詳細地看過了。如果關稅維持在 145% 的水平，您是否認為來自中國的自有品牌產品組合中存在一定比例的風險，從而失去競爭力？

Yes. So what I would say is that you have to do this on an individual product basis. In some cases, our private brands have a modest cost advantage. And if the tariffs are big, they will be underwater immediately. And in that case, though, the GP between the private brand and the national, right, isn't actually that big of a difference. So that will be an impact, but not a huge impact.

是的。所以我想說的是，你必須根據單一產品來做這件事。在某些情況下，我們的自有品牌具有適度的成本優勢。如果關稅很高，他們就會立即陷入困境。但在這種情況下，自有品牌和國家品牌之間的 GP 實際上並沒有那麼大的差異。所以這會產生影響，但影響不會很大。

There are some huge cost differences between private brand and national brand. And in those cases, we may end up taking the increase and GP may be smaller on those products in that case. So far, the cost increases that we -- price increases we put through on those cost increases, we've been able to pass those through, and I think that will make sense. Like I said before, it's 145% order to sustain, then that's what you're going to have some issues where we probably affect gross margin in the short term potentially.

自有品牌和國家品牌之間存在著巨大的成本差異。在這些情況下，我們最終可能會增加利潤，而這些產品的毛利率可能會降低。到目前為止，我們透過提高價格來增加成本，我們已經能夠將這些成本轉嫁出去，我認為這是有道理的。就像我之前說的，要維持 145% 的訂單量，那麼你就會遇到一些問題，這可能會在短期內影響毛利率。

Okay. And then in looking at your comment on slide 12, again, back to that slide, you mentioned that total COGS isn't subject to the full tariff increase, resulting in net inflation being lower for Grainger. Can you help us understand how much of your COGS is product and input cost versus some of those other buckets like freight, supplier markup, other costs that maybe won't be subject to the tariffs?

好的。然後，再看第 12 張投影片上您的評論，再次回到那張投影片，您提到總 COGS 不受全部關稅增加的影響，從而導致 Grainger 的淨通膨率較低。您能否幫助我們了解您的 COGS 中有多少是產品和投入成本，有多少是其他成本，例如運費、供應商加價、其他可能不受關稅影響的成本？

We don't give all of those details. But some of the things that we have talked about in the past that I think are fair to reiterate is that freight as a percent of COGS is generally in the mid- to high single digits for us. But this is the detailed work that we've done to be able to understand that. And by and large, you could assume that the product piece is the majority of the impact.

我們不會提供所有這些細節。但我認為，我們過去談論過的一些事情值得重申的是，對我們來說，運費佔銷貨成本的百分比通常處於中高個位數。但為了理解這一點，我們已經做了詳細的工作。總的來說，你可以假設產品部分是影響的主要因素。

But as D.G noted, you really have to go through product-by-product costs and then composition of the product to really get to the tariff amount. And I know it's hard for you all to attempt to model this, but it's also difficult for us as well as our supplier partners to get to the right answer here. And that's why we're really -- our teams are really taking a very measured approach. And I really appreciate that our supplier partners are doing that as well with us. And then we're also trying to partner on the other and with customers to help them understand that we have much more knowledge.

但正如 D.G 所指出的，你必須仔細分析每個產品的成本以及產品的組成才能真正確定關稅金額。我知道你們所有人都很難嘗試對此進行建模，但對於我們以及我們的供應商合作夥伴來說，在這裡找到正確答案也很困難。這就是為什麼我們的團隊確實採取了非常謹慎的態度。我非常感謝我們的供應商合作夥伴也與我們一起這樣做。然後，我們也嘗試與其他人以及客戶合作，幫助他們了解我們擁有更多的知識。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Macpherson for any final comments.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給麥克弗森先生，請他發表最後的評論。

So thanks for joining us today. We spent a lot of time talking about tariffs. And while we don't know where those are going to shake out, I just would reiterate that our business is focused on making sure we can serve our customers well, protect service and work with our partners effectively to get to the right outcome here. We will be thoughtful, we will not react too quickly, and we'll get to the best answer. We feel like we've got a good position given our product information, our understanding of sources. And some of the things we've evaluated in the past help us have a good position heading into this.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們花了很多時間討論關稅問題。雖然我們不知道這些最終會如何發展，但我只想重申，我們的業務重點是確保我們能夠為客戶提供良好的服務，保護服務並與我們的合作夥伴有效合作，以取得正確的結果。我們會深思熟慮，不會反應太快，並會給出最好的答案。我們覺得，憑藉我們的產品資訊和對消息來源的了解，我們佔據了有利地位。我們過去評估過的一些事情有助於我們在這一方面佔據有利地位。

But this is all about making sure we can serve our customers effectively and protect service and do that in a financially prudent way. So I want to thank everybody on our team and our suppliers for helping us with this. And thanks for joining us today and take care. Have a great weekend.

但這一切都是為了確保我們能夠有效地為客戶服務、保護服務，並以財務審慎的方式做到這一點。因此，我要感謝我們團隊中的每個人以及我們的供應商為我們提供的幫助。感謝您今天的加入我們，請多保重。祝你周末愉快。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。