固安捷 (GWW) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the W.W. Grainger fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

問候並歡迎來到 W.W。格蘭傑 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Kyle Bland, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在，我將會議交給主持人、投資人關係副總裁 Kyle Bland。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning. Welcome to Grainger's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. With me are D.G. Macpherson, Chairman and CEO; and Dee Merriwether, Senior Vice President and CFO.

早安.歡迎參加 Grainger 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。和我一起的是 D.G.麥克弗森 (Macpherson)，董事長兼執行長；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Dee Merriwether。

As a reminder, some of our comments today may include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is included in the company's most recent Form 8-K and other periodic reports filed with the SEC.

提醒一下，我們今天的一些評論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種風險和不確定性的影響。有關可能導致實際結果大不相同的因素的其他信息，請參閱公司最新的 8-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他定期報告。

This morning's presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures, which include certain adjustments in previous periods as noted in the presentation. There were no adjusted items in the fourth quarter 2024 period.

今天早上的演示包括非公認會計準則財務指標，其中包括演示中提到的前幾個時期的某些調整。2024 年第四季沒有調整專案。

Definitions and full reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures with their corresponding GAAP measures are found in the tables at the end of this presentation and in our earnings release, both of which are available on our IR website.

本簡報末尾的表格和我們的收益報告中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與其對應 GAAP 指標的定義和完整對帳表，均可在我們的 IR 網站上查閱。

We will also share results related to MonotaRO. Please remember that MonotaRO is a public company and follows Japanese GAAP, which differs from US GAAP and is reported in our results one month in arrears. As a result, the numbers discussed will differ from MonotaRO's public statements.

我們也將分享與 MonotaRO 相關的結果。請記住，MonotaRO 是一家上市公司，遵循日本 GAAP，這與美國 GAAP 不同，並且在我們的結果中報告延遲一個月。因此，討論的數字將與 MonotaRO 的公開聲明有所不同。

Now, I'll turn it over to D.G.

現在我將把它交給 D.G.

Thank you, Kyle. Good morning and thanks for joining the call. In 2024, the Grainger team continued to drive our strategy forward by remaining focused on what matters most, providing our customers with exceptional service and a great experience. On these core issues, we made strong progress this past year.

謝謝你，凱爾。早上好，感謝您參加電話會議。2024 年，Grainger 團隊繼續推動我們的策略向前發展，專注於最重要的事情，為我們的客戶提供卓越的服務和良好的體驗。在這些核心問題上，我們在過去的一年裡取得了重大進展。

We leveraged our technology data and analytical capabilities to drive differentiated value for our customers in those segments. We invested in supply chain capacity to extend our leadership position in MRO fulfillment. And we remain focused on fostering a workplace environment where all team members can build a rewarding career.

我們利用我們的技術數據和分析能力為這些領域的客戶創造差異化價值。我們投資了供應鏈能力，以擴大我們在 MRO 履行方面的領導地位。我們將繼續致力於營造一個讓所有團隊成員都能獲得成功職涯的工作環境。

These efforts allowed us to deliver on our financial commitments for the year and helped us maintain our track record of driving strong return for shareholders. I'm proud of the progress we've made and want to take a few minutes to highlight some of these accomplishments in more detail.

這些努力使我們能夠履行當年的財務承諾，並幫助我們保持了為股東帶來強勁回報的記錄。我為我們所取得的進步感到自豪，並想花幾分鐘更詳細地介紹其中的一些成就。

To start, I'd like to ground us in the understanding that all MRO distributors are trying to solve two basic customer needs. First, customers expect to fall as experience. That means having the products they need, making it simple to find, having a seamless order process, getting into them quickly and making it easy to receive and pay.

首先，我想讓大家了解，所有 MRO 經銷商都在努力解決兩個基本客戶需求。首先，顧客期望體驗下降。這意味著擁有他們需要的產品，讓他們能夠輕鬆找到產品，擁有無縫的訂購流程，讓他們能夠快速獲得產品，並輕鬆收貨和付款。

Second, customers expect their MRO partner to deliver tangible value for their business. This goes far beyond selling products and is something that shows up differently for each customer. It could be simplifying a customer's purchasing process, helping them improve inventory management capabilities, finding product substitutes to save them money or supporting their operational and safety challenges.

其次，客戶期望他們的 MRO 合作夥伴能夠為他們的業務提供實際的價值。這遠遠超出了銷售產品的範疇，並且對每個客戶來說都有不同的體現。它可以簡化客戶的採購流程，幫助他們提高庫存管理能力，找到產品替代品以節省資金或支持他們的營運和安全挑戰。

Our two go-to-market models, High-Touch Solutions and Endless Assortment are built to solve these needs for customers of varying sizes and industries. Our teams and processes are structured to help customers find the products they need, buy it with confidence and deliver it next day and complete.

我們的兩種行銷模式「高接觸解決方案」和「無盡分類」旨在滿足不同規模和行業的客戶的這些需求。我們的團隊和流程旨在幫助客戶找到他們需要的產品、放心購買並在第二天完成交付。

We do this while minimizing complexity and showcasing our value-added capabilities that are relevant to their context. To do this well and at scale, we continue to build upon our three core foundational competencies. These are leveraging our technology and data capabilities to extend our digital advantage, expanding our supply chain footprint to maintain industry-leading service and building and cultivating a highly engaged team.

我們在做到這一點的同時，盡量減少複雜性，並展示與他們的情況相關的增值能力。為了更好地、大規模地完成這一目標，我們將繼續鞏固我們的三大核心基礎能力。這些正在利用我們的技術和數據能力來擴展我們的數位優勢，擴大我們的供應鏈足跡以保持行業領先的服務，並建立和培養一支高度敬業的團隊。

Let me briefly touch on each of these. Over the last several years, we have invested heavily to build market-leading data and technology capabilities, including developing proprietary product information and customer information systems. These data assets underpin our five strategic growth engines and fuel our ability to gain share within our High-Touch Solutions segment.

讓我簡單談談這些問題。過去幾年裡，我們投入大量資金打造市場領先的數據和技術能力，包括開發專有產品資訊和客戶資訊系統。這些數據資產支撐著我們的五大策略成長引擎，並增強我們在高接觸解決方案領域獲得份額的能力。

In 2024, we made some great progress. Within merchandising, we have completed a first pass review to our full assortment. This is a tremendous milestone, and I'm proud of the continuous improvement mindset the team has taken to advance and standardize the process with this evergreen initiative.

2024年，我們取得了重大進展。在商品銷售方面，我們已經完成了對全部商品的初次審查。這是一個重要的里程碑，我為團隊透過這項持久舉措推進和標準化流程的持續改進思維感到自豪。

We'll continue to review categories, and we'll likely see more net assortment growth going forward as we add products to meet evolving customer needs. Our marketing team is focused on driving continued strong returns on our ad spend. In 2024, we expanded our top-of-funnel marketing efforts in new channels to increase brand awareness.

我們將繼續審查產品類別，並且隨著我們不斷增加產品來滿足不斷變化的客戶需求，我們很可能會看到更多的淨分類成長。我們的行銷團隊致力於推動廣告支出持續獲得豐厚的回報。2024 年，我們在新的管道中擴大了漏斗頂部的行銷力度，以提高品牌知名度。

We also iterated on our digital marketing strategy to best capture in-the-moment demand. Further, we're finding new ways to utilize our PIM and KIM data assets to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of our spend. We have seen positive results in many areas and plan to continue to increase our overall marketing investment again in 2025.

我們也重申了我們的數位行銷策略，以最好地滿足即時需求。此外，我們正在尋找新方法來利用我們的 PIM 和 KIM 數據資產來提高我們的支出的有效性和效率。我們在許多領域都看到了正面的成果，並計劃在2025年繼續再次增加整體行銷投入。

We continue to leverage our improved customer data to expand our sales force, adding one new geography and around 70 new sellers in 2024 as part of our sales coverage initiative. We slowed our investment in this space in 2024 and to start this year, but we continue to be pleased with our results and expect to add one or two more geographies later in 2025.

我們將繼續利用改進的客戶數據來擴大我們的銷售隊伍，作為銷售覆蓋計劃的一部分，我們將在 2024 年增加一個新地區和約 70 名新賣家。我們在 2024 年和今年年初放緩了對該領域的投資，但我們對業績仍然感到滿意，並預計在 2025 年晚些時候再增加一兩個地區。

Our sales force remains our biggest demand generator, and we are investing in tools and resources to increase their effectiveness and help them better serve our customers. We built and launched a proprietary sellers insights tool that integrates with other Grainger platforms to serve customer-specific insights. This helps our sellers save time and enables more productive customer conversations.

我們的銷售團隊仍然是我們最大的需求創造者，我們正在投資工具和資源來提高他們的效率，幫助他們更好地服務我們的客戶。我們建立並推出了專有的賣家洞察工具，該工具可與其他 Grainger 平台集成，以提供針對特定客戶的洞察。這有助於我們的賣家節省時間並實現更有成效的客戶對話。

And just this week, we are conducting intensive training for our sellers to help them meet their customer needs. Helping our sellers succeed will always be a focus. Within customer solutions, we implemented new homegrown software across our KeepStock platform to enhance our inventory management capabilities and we are piloting new customer-facing tools, which will provide access to enhanced data and insights.

就在本週，我們正在對賣家進行密集培訓，以幫助他們滿足客戶需求。幫助我們的賣家取得成功永遠是我們關注的重點。在客戶解決方案方面，我們在KeepStock 平台上實施了新的自主開發軟體，以增強我們的庫存管理能力，並且我們正在試用新的面向客戶的工具，這些工具將提供對增強的數據和見解的訪問。

These advancements will help improve the user experience and drive procurement cost savings for our customers. All told, there's plenty of runway across our growth engines to continue powering share into the future.

這些進步將有助於改善使用者體驗並為我們的客戶節省採購成本。總而言之，我們的成長引擎還有足夠的空間來繼續推動未來的市場份額。

The information advantage we built across product and customer information also unlocks our ability to tap into new and emerging technologies to better serve customers and extend our leadership position in the MRO industry.

我們在產品和客戶資訊方面建立的資訊優勢也釋放了我們利用新興技術更好地服務客戶和擴大我們在 MRO 行業的領導地位的能力。

We're leveraging our proprietary data to find new ways to increase revenue, drive efficiencies and enhance service. We've been developing a variety of different capabilities across the business, including homegrown machine learning, large language models and data tools where we can add incremental value. We are also piloting off-the-shelf technologies to help streamline back-office processes.

我們正在利用我們的專有數據來尋找增加收入、提高效率和增強服務的新方法。我們一直在開發各種不同的業務功能，包括自主研發的機器學習、大型語言模型和可以增加增量價值的資料工具。我們也正在試用現成的技術來幫助簡化後台流程。

To brings this to life, we've included a few examples. In KeepStock, we're leveraging computer vision to streamline our install process. Here, a cell phone camera can extract and codify detailed product information to help reduce errors and better organize the layout for the new install. This saves meaningful time for our KeepStock team members lowering install cost while improving the customer experience.

為了使其生動形象，我們提供了一些範例。在 KeepStock，我們利用電腦視覺來簡化我們的安裝流程。在這裡，手機相機可以提取和編碼詳細的產品訊息，以幫助減少錯誤並更好地組織新安裝的佈局。這為我們的 KeepStock 團隊成員節省了大量時間，降低了安裝成本，同時改善了客戶體驗。

Our inventory team has been augmented their planning algorithms of advanced machine learning models to optimize the depth and breadth of products across each market. These new models have been implemented across most of our North American network, driving service-level improvements.

我們的庫存團隊已經增強了先進機器學習模型的規劃演算法，以優化每個市場的產品的深度和廣度。這些新模式已在我們大部分北美網路中實施，推動了服務水準的提升。

Going forward, the team sees opportunities across supply chain to further refine our planning capabilities, helping us extend our service lead and optimize asset efficiency. Finally, as mentioned last quarter, we're testing a generative AI model in our call centers, which leverages our proprietary product and customer information to craft well informed responses to customer chat inquiries.

展望未來，團隊看到了整個供應鏈中的機會，以進一步完善我們的規劃能力，幫助我們擴大服務領先優勢並優化資產效率。最後，正如上個季度所提到的，我們正在呼叫中心測試生成式 AI 模型，該模型利用我們的專有產品和客戶資訊來對客戶聊天查詢做出明智的回應。

This tool allows us to scale our know-how and equip our customer service agents with vast relevant responses to help customers get what they need more quickly and efficiently. We're still in the test phase here, but (inaudible) technical product specialists have found it to be highly accurate while providing near-term -- near immediate response times.

該工具使我們能夠擴展我們的專業知識，並為我們的客戶服務代理提供大量相關的回應，以幫助客戶更快、更有效地獲得所需的服務。我們仍處於測試階段，但（聽不清楚）技術產品專家發現它非常準確，同時提供近期——近乎即時的回應時間。

Down the road, this tool could be applied to other customer interaction channels. We're also investigating how this underlying technology could support other use cases across the business.

未來，該工具可以應用於其他客戶互動管道。我們也正在研究這項底層技術如何支援整個企業的其他用例。

We are just scratching the surface on how we can continue to leverage our data and these next-gen tools to develop advantage across the business. I'm encouraged by the progress we've made in 2024 and for what's to come in 2025 and beyond.

關於如何繼續利用我們的數據和這些下一代工具來在整個業務中發展優勢，我們才剛開始探索。我對我們在 2024 年的進展以及 2025 年及以後的發展感到鼓舞。

Moving to Endless Assortment. We made great progress within the segment and continue to propel the flywheel forward. At Zoro, the team made significant progress on expanding their marketing efforts, growing the assortment and enhancing the customer experience.

走向無盡的分類。我們在該領域取得了巨大進步，並繼續推動飛輪向前發展。在 Zoro，團隊在擴大行銷、豐富產品種類和提升客戶體驗方面取得了重大進展。

This includes leveraging data and analytics to optimize the on-site search algorithm and improve delivery communication and capabilities. Result has been a steady flow of user acquisitions, improved B2B customer retention and a return to double-digit sales growth as we exited the year.

這包括利用數據和分析來優化現場搜尋演算法並改善交付溝通和能力。結果是，我們在年底時獲得了穩定的用戶獲取量、提高了 B2B 客戶保留率並恢復了兩位數的銷售額成長。

MonotaRO continues to execute exceptionally well, driving strong results including 29% growth with enterprise customers. The business continued to see strong retention rates while deepening our share of wallet with core B2B customers. We are actively sharing learnings across these businesses and are excited to build on our momentum in 2025.

MonotaRO 繼續表現出色，取得了強勁的業績，包括企業客戶成長 29%。在不斷擴大我們與核心 B2B 客戶的份額的同時，業務繼續保持強勁的留存率。我們正在積極地與這些企業分享經驗，並對在 2025 年繼續保持良好勢頭感到興奮。

Our supply chain is foundational to driving a great customer experience. We've built our supply chain to specifically serve B2B customers with ship next day complete orders. We've made significant progress on enhancing our service capabilities and expanding our distribution center network.

我們的供應鏈是提供良好客戶體驗的基礎。我們建立了我們的供應鏈，專門為 B2B 客戶提供第二天發貨的訂單。我們在提升服務能力和擴大配送中心網路方面取得了重大進展。

This includes beginning construction on the new Houston area DC, continued progress at our new Northwest DC and further investments in bulk warehouse capacity, including a roughly $80 million facility in Illinois that we purchased at the end of 2024.

這包括開始建造新的休士頓地區配送中心，繼續推進我們新的西北配送中心的建設，並進一步投資散裝倉庫的能力，其中包括我們在 2024 年底在伊利諾伊州購買的價值約 8000 萬美元的設施。

Across the network, we see opportunity for automation and other advancements which will help drive further efficiencies and ensure the long-term resilience of our supply chain. As we invest in this space, we remained focused on maintaining our leading service advantage now and into the future.

在整個網路中，我們看到了自動化和其他進步的機會，這將有助於進一步提高效率並確保我們供應鏈的長期彈性。當我們投資這一領域時，我們始終專注於現在和將來保持領先的服務優勢。

Our last foundational competency is our people. At the core of our success is our more than 26,000 team members who live our purpose-driven culture. Our team members are resolute and fulfilling our purpose. We keep the world working and living our principles because we know the work we do matters. This is how we get the best out of our talent and operate with the highest ethics and integrity.

我們的最後一個基礎能力是我們的人才。我們成功的核心是超過 26,000 名團隊成員，他們實踐著我們目標驅動的文化。我們的團隊成員意志堅定，並履行我們的目標。我們讓世界運轉並實踐我們的原則，因為我們知道我們所做的工作很重要。這就是我們如何最大限度地發揮我們的人才並以最高的道德和誠信來經營。

Our company remains an employer of choice as evidenced by being certified at Great Place to Work across North America and Panama. Additionally, this year, we were named a top rank company across all industries on the American Opportunity Index, which primarily focuses on the experiences of workers in non-college degree roles and the company's ability to offer them growth and development no matter their career path.

我們的公司仍然是首選雇主，這一點已獲得北美和巴拿馬最佳工作場所認證。此外，今年，我們被美國機會指數評為所有行業中排名靠前的公司，該指數主要關注非大學學歷員工的經歷，以及公司為他們提供成長和發展的能力，無論他們的職業道路如何。

These recognitions are a testament to our culture, including our commitment to ensure all team members could have a meaningful and fulfilling career here at Grainger.

這些認可證明了我們的文化，包括我們致力於確保所有團隊成員都能在 Grainger 擁有有意義且充實的職業生涯。

Lastly, I'd like to thank our team members for the critical role they played in helping their communities through numerous natural disasters over the past year. This includes ongoing support for customers in local and federal relief agencies across Los Angeles area as they continue to battle the devastating fires.

最後，我要感謝我們的團隊成員在過去的一年裡為幫助社區度過無數自然災害所發揮的關鍵作用。這包括為洛杉磯地區當地和聯邦救援機構的客戶提供持續支持，幫助他們繼續對抗毀滅性的火災。

Now turning to our full year financials. The demand environment remained sluggish throughout 2024, where we finished the year with over $17.2 billion in sales, up 4.2% on a reported basis or up 4.7% on a daily organic constant currency basis.

現在來談談我們的全年財務狀況。在整個 2024 年，需求環境依然低迷，但我們全年的銷售額超過 172 億美元，以報告基礎計算成長 4.2%，以每日有機固定匯率計算成長 4.7%。

Growth for the year included profitable share gain from our High-Touch Solutions US business, which finished the year with roughly 100 basis points of total market outgrowth, including 325 basis points of outgrowth on a volume basis.

本年度的成長包括來自我們美國高接觸解決方案業務的獲利性份額成長，該業務全年總市場成長率約為 100 個基點，其中銷量成長率為 325 個基點。

In Endless Assortment, the segment showed significant topline improvement with daily constant currency sales up 11.6%. Both Zoro and MonotaRO continue to win with their core B2B customer base and drive improved repeat purchase rates, positioning them well for the future.

在無限系列產品中，該部門的營收顯著改善，以固定匯率計算的每日銷售額成長 11.6%。Zoro 和 MonotaRO 都繼續贏得其核心 B2B 客戶群，並提高重複購買率，為未來做好了準備。

Alongside the solid topline, the team also did a great job delivering continued strong margin performance, all while investing for the future with operating margin finishing at 15.5% for the year. Together, these results fueled strong earnings with adjusted EPS up over 6% to $38.96 per share.

除了穩健的營業收入外，該團隊還表現出色，繼續保持強勁的利潤率，同時對未來進行了投資，全年營業利潤率達到 15.5%。這些業績共同推動了強勁的盈利，調整後的每股收益上漲超過 6%，至每股 38.96 美元。

ROIC finished at 41.6% and operating cash flows over $2.1 billion, which allowed us to return $1.6 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Overall, I'm proud of what we accomplished in 2024 and know we are working on the right initiatives to remain the MRO market leader for years to come.

投資報酬率 (ROIC) 達到 41.6%，營運現金流超過 21 億美元，這使我們能夠透過股利和股票回購向股東返還 16 億美元。總的來說，我為我們在 2024 年取得的成就感到自豪，並且知道我們正在採取正確的舉措，以在未來幾年保持 MRO 市場的領先地位。

And with that, I will turn it over to Dee to review our fourth quarter results.

接下來，我將把時間交給 Dee 來審查我們第四季的業績。

I want to echo D.G's comment on our strong 2024 performance. Not only did we make progress on a number of strategic initiatives, but the team was also able to deliver on the majority of our 2024 financial commitments. This includes revenue, margin and EPS, all finishing within the original guidance ranges we provided this time last year.

我想贊同 D.G 對我們 2024 年強勁表現的評論。我們不僅在許多策略舉措上取得了進展，而且團隊還能夠履行我們 2024 年的大部分財務承諾。其中包括營收、利潤率和每股盈餘，都達到我們去年此時提供的原始指引範圍之內。

Now turning to detail on the fourth quarter. We had another good quarter to finish out the year with results coming roughly in line with expectations. For the total company, daily sales grew 4.2% or 4.7% on a daily organic constant currency basis, which included growth in both segments.

現在來談談第四季的細節。我們又以一個好的季度結束了這一年，業績大致符合預期。就整個公司而言，每日銷售額成長 4.2%（以每日有機固定匯率計算成長 4.7%），其中包括兩個部門的成長。

Sales were strong in the quarter despite softness in the back half of December from holiday timing and customer shutdowns. Total company gross margins for the quarter were strong, ending at 39.6%, up 50 basis points over the prior year period. Favorability was mainly driven by the High-Touch Solutions segment, which I'll detail on the next slide.

儘管 12 月下半月因假期和客戶停工等原因而銷售疲軟，但本季銷售仍然強勁。本季公司總毛利率強勁，達到 39.6%，較去年同期上升 50 個基點。受歡迎程度主要受到高接觸解決方案部門的推動，我將在下一張投影片中詳細介紹。

This gross margin favorability largely flow through to the bottom line, where operating margins ended the quarter at 15%, up 40 basis points versus the prior year. Overall, we delivered diluted EPS for the quarter of $9.71, which was up over 16% versus the fourth quarter of 2023.

毛利率的良好表現很大程度上影響了公司獲利，本季末公司的營業利潤率為 15%，比去年同期成長了 40 個基點。總體而言，本季我們的攤薄每股收益為 9.71 美元，較 2023 年第四季成長 16% 以上。

Diving into segment-level results. The High-Touch Solutions segment continues to perform well with sales up 4% on a reported basis or 3% on a daily organic constant currency basis. Results were driven by solid volume growth and continued improved price contribution within the segment. We also delivered growth across all geographies in the period in local days, local currency.

深入研究細分層級的結果。高接觸解決方案部門持續表現良好，報告銷售額成長 4%，或以每日有機固定匯率計算成長 3%。業績主要得益於該部門銷售的穩健成長和價格貢獻的持續提升。我們在該期間內也以當地天數和當地貨幣計算實現了所有地區的成長。

In the US specifically, we saw strong growth with government and health care customers, which helped to offset more sluggish performance across the other areas. For the segment, gross profit margin finished the quarter at a strong 42.3%, up 90 basis points versus prior year.

具體來說，在美國，我們看到政府和醫療保健客戶的強勁成長，這有助於抵消其他地區的疲軟表現。就該部門而言，本季的毛利率強勁達到 42.3%，較上年同期上升了 90 個基點。

Favorability was aided by a roughly 50 basis point lap of year-end inventory cost adjustment in the prior year as well as slight mix and freight favorability in the current year period. Price/cost for the quarter was roughly neutral.

上年年末庫存成本調整約 50 個基點，以及當年產品組合和運費略有上漲，均有助於推動績效上漲。本季的價格/成本大致中性。

Operating margin for the segment finished the quarter at [17%], which was up 60 basis points versus the prior year. Gross margin favorability in the segment more than offset incremental investment in demand-generating activities in the period. Despite the December topline softness, it was a good finish to the year for the High-Touch Solutions segment.

該部門本季的營業利潤率為 [17%]，比上年同期增長了 60 個基點。該部門的毛利率高於當期需求產生活動的增量投資。儘管 12 月營收表現疲軟，但對於高接觸解決方案部門而言，今年取得了不錯的成績。

Turning to market outgrowth on slide 16. Using our total market model, which includes both producer price index and industrial production inputs, we estimate that Grainger took approximately a 100 basis points of total share gain in the fourth quarter.

在第 16 頁討論市場成長。使用我們的整體市場模型，其中包括生產者物價指數和工業生產投入，我們估計格蘭傑在第四季度的總市場份額增長了約 100 個基點。

As you can see on the slide, this helped us finish full year 2024 with roughly 100 basis points of mathematical share gain in total as our High-Touch Solutions US business grew 3.3% organically compared to our total MRO market model which was up between 2% and 2.5% for the year.

正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，這幫助我們在2024 年全年實現了大約100 個基點的數學份額增長，因為我們的高接觸解決方案美國業務與我們的整個MRO 市場模式相比實現了3.3% 的有機成長，而我們的整體MRO 市場模式在 2 % 和全年 2.5%。

Pulling apart the model at the bottom of the slide, we drove approximately 325 basis points of volume outgrowth for the year. This growth was offset by a mathematical share loss from price of roughly 225 basis points as the PPI sub-index we use in the market model inflated meaningfully higher than Grainger's price contribution to revenue.

將幻燈片底部的模型拆開來看，我們推動了今年交易量成長約 325 個基點。由於我們在市場模型中使用的 PPI 子指數的膨脹程度明顯高於 Grainger 的價格對收入的貢獻，因此這一增長被大約 225 個基點的價格數學份額損失所抵消。

As we've discussed all year, our mathematical share gain has been impacted by differences in product and customer mix between our business and the underlying mix that contributes to the PPI and IP sub-indices we use as the price and volume inputs to our market model.

正如我們全年所討論的那樣，我們的數學份額增長受到我們業務之間的產品和客戶組合差異以及基礎組合的影響，這些差異導致了我們用作市場價格和數量輸入的 PPI 和 IP 子指數模型。

On price specifically, the dislocation is more dramatic on products that are experiencing high inflation in the current environment, such as airplanes and medical equipment. These products are contributing to higher market inflation than what Grainger is seeing on MRO specific products.

具體到價格方面，當前環境下通膨較高的產品（如飛機和醫療設備）的錯位更為嚴重。這些產品導致的市場通膨率比 Grainger 在 MRO 特定產品中看到的更高。

While the total market model remains highly correlated to our performance over time, this period of dislocation has persisted for several quarters. Our focus as a company has been and is to remain price competitive and grow share via volume-based initiatives. With this and given the recent outsized dislocation we've seen in the price component, we will be focusing our market measurement on just the volume component going forward.

雖然整體市場模型與我們長期以來的表現保持高度相關，但這種混亂局面已經持續了幾個季度。作為一家公司，我們的重點一直是保持價格競爭力並透過基於數量的措施來擴大市場份額。鑑於這一點，並考慮到最近我們在價格成分中看到的過大混亂，我們將在未來把市場衡量重點放在數量成分上。

While the volume component of the model can still have dislocations due to its aggregated and broad nature, we feel it captures the essence of the underlying MRO activity and will serve as a good benchmark for our performance over time.

雖然模型的體積成分由於其聚合性和廣泛性仍然可能存在錯位，但我們認為它抓住了底層 MRO 活動的本質，並將成為我們長期表現的良好基準。

On price, we have several internal and external signals that can be used to ensure that we are remaining price competitive, and our ability to do this well can be better monitored through our gross margin results. We will continue to break out our High-Touch revenue between volume and price in the appendix of these materials each quarter as we pivot to the volume-based view.

在價格方面，我們有幾個內部和外部訊號可用於確保我們保持價格競爭力，並且我們可以透過毛利率結果更好地監控我們做到這一點的能力。隨著我們轉向基於數量的視圖，我們將繼續在每個季度在這些材料的附錄中逐一列出數量和價格之間的高接觸收入。

So with these changes, if you turn to slide 17, you can see our goal for review of volume-only outgrowth, which ties back to the 325 basis points of volume contribution from the previous slide for the full year of 2024.

因此，有了這些變化，如果您轉到第 17 張投影片，您可以看到我們審查僅限銷售成長的目標，這與上一張投影片中 2024 年全年 325 個基點的銷售貢獻相關。

This metric still reflects some mix-related dislocation, but much less after removing the undue noise from the price component. Overall, we remain confident in our strategic growth engines and their ability to drive share over the long-term and continue to target 400 to 500 basis points of average annual outgrowth over time.

該指標仍然反映了一些與混合相關的錯位，但在消除價格成分中的不當噪音後，錯位就會減少很多。總體而言，我們對我們的策略成長引擎及其長期推動份額的能力仍然充滿信心，並將繼續以 400 至 500 個基點的平均年增長率為目標。

Turning to the Endless Assortment segment. Sales increased 15.1% or 13.2% on a daily constant currency basis. Zoro US was up 13.9%, while MonotaRO achieved 14.3% growth in local days, local currency. At a business level, Zoro's growth rate continued to ramp as they have all year. The business saw strong traction across all customer types, including growth in the teens within their core B2B customer group.

轉向無限組合部分。銷售額成長 15.1%（以每日固定匯率計算則成長 13.2%）。Zoro US 上漲 13.9%，而 MonotaRO 以當地貨幣計算實現 14.3% 的成長。從業務層面來看，Zoro 的成長率與全年一樣持續上升。該業務在所有客戶類型中都表現出強勁的成長勢頭，其中核心 B2B 客戶群中的青少年客戶數量也有所增長。

For the quarter, B2C and B2C-like customers grew roughly in line with core B2B, a trend we expect to be reasonably consistent going forward. At MonotaRO, sales growth remained strong with enterprise customers coupled with solid acquisition and repeat purchase rates with core small and mid-sized businesses.

本季度，B2C 和類 B2C 客戶的成長速度與核心 B2B 客戶的成長速度大致相同，我們預計這一趨勢未來將保持相當一致。在 MonotaRO，企業客戶的銷售成長依然強勁，同時核心中小型企業的購買率和重複購買率也保持穩定。

On profitability, operating margins for the segment increased by 80 basis points to 8.6% with both businesses contributing year-over-year. Zoro operating margins were up 140 basis points to 3.7%, aided by continued operating leverage.

在獲利能力方面，該部門的營業利潤率增加了 80 個基點，達到 8.6%，兩項業務均較去年同期成長。由於持續的營運槓桿，Zoro 的營業利潤率上漲了 140 個基點，達到 3.7%。

At MonotaRO, margins remained strong at 12.6% with DC operating efficiencies driving continued year-over-year improvement. Overall, we're proud of the improved performance through 2024 within the segment and look to continue momentum this year.

在 MonotaRO，利潤率仍保持強勁，達到 12.6%，而 DC 營運效率的提高推動了利潤率的持續同比改善。總體而言，我們對該領域到 2024 年的業績提升感到自豪，並期待今年繼續保持這一勢頭。

Now moving to our 2025 guidance. Our outlook for the year includes revenue to be between $17.6 billion and $18.1 billion at the total company level driven by growth in both segments. This translates to daily constant currency sales growth between 4% and 6.5%.

現在轉向我們的 2025 年指導。我們對今年公司整體營收的預期是，在兩個部門成長的推動下，公司整體營收將達到 176 億美元至 181 億美元之間。這意味著每日固定貨幣銷售額成長率在 4% 到 6.5% 之間。

Within our High-Touch Solutions segment, we expect daily constant currency sales of between 2.5% and 4.5%. In the US, we expect market volume growth for the full year to remain muted. This is consistent with what we're seeing in the current short-cycle environment and does not assume a step change macro recovery that some are projecting for the back half of the year.

在我們的高接觸解決方案部門內，我們預期每日固定匯率銷售額將在 2.5% 至 4.5% 之間。在美國，我們預計全年市場銷售成長將保持低迷。這與我們在當前短週期環境中看到的情況一致，並且不假設一些人預測的今年下半年宏觀經濟復甦將出現階躍變化。

On share gain, we will continue to target 400 to 500 basis points of US market volume outgrowth over time. However, we expect to land in the low end of the range in 2025 from continued measurement dislocation due to mix and as we check and adjust our marketing and seller expansion efforts to incorporate learnings.

在份額成長方面，我們將繼續以美國市場銷售隨著時間的推移而成長 400 至 500 個基點為目標。然而，由於產品組合導致的持續測量錯位，以及我們檢查和調整行銷和賣家擴張工作以吸收經驗教訓，我們預計 2025 年將處於該範圍的低端。

Lastly, we anticipate minimal pricing inflation for the year, which is in line with what we're hearing from suppliers and seeing in the market for MRO-specific products. This assumption excludes any impact from incremental tariffs that may or may not occur in 2025.

最後，我們預計今年的價格通膨將會很小，這與我們從供應商那裡聽到的情況以及在 MRO 專用產品市場上看到的情況一致。這項假設不包括2025年可能發生或可能不會發生的增量關稅的影響。

In the Endless Assortment segment, we anticipate daily constant currency sales to grow between 11% and 15%. This segment-level growth will be roughly 325 basis points lower on a reported basis when you normalize for expected foreign currency exchange headwinds and fewer selling days in the current year period.

在無限組合細分市場，我們預期每日固定匯率銷售額將成長 11% 至 15%。如果將預期的外匯逆風和當年期間的銷售天數減少考慮在內，此細分市場層面的成長將在報告基礎上下降約 325 個基點。

At the business unit level, Zoro anticipated to grow in the low double-digits as they continue their momentum in driving higher repeat rates, consistent service and improve target marketing. MonotaRO is expected to grow in the low-teens at the midpoint in local days and local currency, which normalizes for three less selling days in 2025, and expected FX headwinds from the yen.

在業務部門層面，Zoro 預計將實現低兩位數成長，因為他們將繼續保持提高重複率、提供一致服務和改善目標行銷的勢頭。預計 MonotaRO 的銷量將以當地天數和當地貨幣的中間值增長 10% 左右，這將使 2025 年的銷售天數減少 3 天，並預計日圓將帶來外匯阻力。

This strong performance is fueled by growth with new and enterprise customers alongside strong repeat rates with their core B2B customers.

強勁的業績表現得益於新客戶和企業客戶的成長以及核心 B2B 客戶的強勁回頭率。

Moving to our margin expectations. We expect total company operating margins to remain strong in 2025, ranging between 15.1% and 15.5%. In the High-Touch Solutions segment, operating margins are expected to stay healthy but will contract slightly to be between 17% and 17.4%.

轉向我們的利潤預期。我們預計 2025 年公司整體營業利潤率將保持強勁，介於 15.1% 至 15.5% 之間。在高接觸解決方案部門，預計營業利潤率將保持健康，但將小幅收縮至 17% 至 17.4% 之間。

This is driven by relatively stable gross margins, although they may tick down slightly off a strong finish to 2024. We expect SG&A will modestly delever at the midpoint on a softer topline and continued investment across our growth engines.

這是由相對穩定的毛利率推動的，儘管到 2024 年，毛利率可能會略有下降。我們預計，由於營業收入較弱且我們繼續對成長引擎進行投資，銷售、一般及行政開支將在中期適度去槓桿。

In Endless Assortment, we anticipate operating margin will continue to ramp between 8.5% and 9%, up 20 to 70 basis points versus 2024. Slight gross margin headroom at Zoro from continued growth of lower-margin, third-party shipped SKUs will be offset by continued operating leverage at both business units as the flywheel continues to drive new customer growth and repeat purchase rates.

在 Endless Assortment 中，我們預期營業利潤率將持續在 8.5% 至 9% 之間上升，較 2024 年上升 20 至 70 個基點。隨著飛輪繼續推動新客戶成長和重複購買率，Zoro 的低利潤率第三方出貨 SKU 持續成長所帶來的輕微毛利率空間將被兩個業務部門持續的營運槓桿所抵消。

Turning to capital allocation. We expect the business will continue to generate strong cash flow in the year with an expected range of $2.05 billion to $2.25 billion, implying operating cash conversion north of 100%. We plan to continue to execute a consistent return-driven approach to our capital allocation strategy, meaning our priorities remain largely unchanged from prior years.

轉向資本配置。我們預計該業務今年將繼續產生強勁的現金流，預計範圍為 20.5 億美元至 22.5 億美元，這意味著經營現金轉換率將超過 100%。我們計劃繼續執行以回報為導向的資本配置策略，這意味著我們的優先事項與前幾年基本保持不變。

We'll continue to invest in the business and expect CapEx in the range of $450 million to $550 million. Spending here includes further supply chain investment as we progress with the construction of our new DC capacity. We also plan to advance our data and technology capabilities, helping to further our customers value proposition.

我們將繼續投資該業務，預計資本支出在 4.5 億至 5.5 億美元之間。隨著我們新的 DC 容量建設的進展，這裡的支出包括進一步的供應鏈投資。我們也計劃提升我們的數據和技術能力，幫助進一步實現客戶的價值主張。

Alongside these organic investments, we continue to explore inorganic opportunities to help further strategy or advance our capabilities. We plan to remain highly selective here in 2025. Outside investment, we expect to return the balance of our excess cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

除了這些有機投資外，我們還將繼續探索無機投資機會，以幫助進一步製定策略或提升我們的能力。我們計劃在 2025 年繼續保持高度選擇性。外部投資方面，我們預期以股利和股票回購的形式將剩餘現金餘額回饋給股東。

We'll formally set our 2025 dividend in the second quarter, but again, anticipate consistent annual dividend increases in the high single-digit to low double-digit percentage range.

我們將在第二季正式設定 2025 年的股息，但同樣預期年度股息將在高個位數至低兩位數百分比範圍內持續成長。

On share repurchases, we anticipate the amount for 2025 will be between $1.15 billion and $1.25 billion. As in prior years, we feel this return-focused allocation philosophy provides the organization optimal flexibility to efficiently manage investment while maximizing shareholder returns now and into the future.

在股票回購方面，我們預計 2025 年的回購金額將在 11.5 億至 12.5 億美元之間。與往年一樣，我們認為這種以回報為中心的分配理念為組織提供了最佳靈活性，可以有效管理投資，同時最大化現在和未來的股東回報。

In summary, at the total company level, we plan to grow topline by roughly 4% to 6.5% on a daily constant currency basis. Note that reported sales growth is roughly 130 basis points lower than our daily constant currency range as we're normalizing for FX headwinds and one fewer selling day in the current year. A reconciliation of these impacts is provided in the appendix of this presentation.

綜上所述，從整個公司層級來看，我們計劃以每日固定匯率計算，實現營業收入成長約 4% 至 6.5%。請注意，由於我們正在根據外匯逆風進行正常化，並且今年的銷售日減少了一個，因此報告的銷售額增長比我們的每日恆定匯率範圍低約 130 個基點。本簡報的附錄提供了這些影響的對照表。

Gross margin and operating margin as we discussed will remain healthy for the year, leading to an expected EPS growth of flat to up 6.5% or $39 to $41.50 per share. Note, this expected EPS growth range includes a $20 million net interest headwind in 2025 following our debt refinancing and expected lower interest rates on our cash balances.

正如我們所討論的，毛利率和營業利潤率在今年將保持健康，預計每股收益將持平至上漲 6.5% 或每股 39 美元至 41.50 美元。請注意，這項預期每股收益成長範圍包括 2025 年債務再融資後 2,000 萬美元的淨利息逆風以及現金餘額預期下降的利率。

Further, there is roughly 110 basis point year-over-year headwind to our EPS growth rate as our effective tax rate normalizes in 2025 after the one-time benefit we captured in 2024. From a seasonality perspective, we expect sales to start slower and ramp as we move through the year. This includes a softer start in January from the timing of the New Year's holiday and the cold weather disruptions experienced during the month.

此外，由於我們的有效稅率在 2024 年獲得一次性收益後於 2025 年恢復正常，因此我們的每股盈餘成長率將面臨約 110 個基點的同比阻力。從季節性的角度來看，我們預計銷售一開始會比較慢，並隨著一年的推移而逐漸上升。其中包括 1 月由於新年假期和當月寒冷天氣的影響，開局較為疲軟。

With this, January sales started slow but picked up momentum as the month progressed with preliminary results up approximately 2.5% on a daily constant currency basis. January growth will be approximately 100 basis points higher if you normalize for the holiday and weather impacts.

由此，一月份的銷售一開始比較緩慢，但隨著時間的推移，銷售動能逐漸增強，初步結果以每日固定匯率計算成長了約 2.5%。如果將假期和天氣影響考慮在內，1 月的成長率將會高出約 100 個基點。

When translating daily constant currency sales to reported revenue, there's a lot of noise this year, particularly in the first quarter. This is driven by foreign exchange headwinds which are most announced in Q1 before subsiding in the middle of the year.

在將每日固定匯率銷售額換算為報告收入時，今年會出現許多噪音，尤其是在第一季。這是由外匯逆風所致，這種逆風在第一季最為明顯，並在年中逐漸消退。

There's also one fewer selling day in February, which reduces revenue by roughly $70 million year-over-year, representing a 160 basis point headwind to reported sales growth in the first quarter. All in, this translates to expected reported sales of around $4.3 billion for the first quarter of 2025.

2 月的銷售日也減少了一天，導致營收年減約 7,000 萬美元，對第一季報告的銷售成長造成 160 個基點的阻力。總而言之，這意味著 2025 年第一季的預期銷售額將達到約 43 億美元。

On profitability, given the slower start to sales and one less selling day being in the current year period, operating margin rates will be challenged in the first quarter before ramping through the year. This deviates from our normal seasonal pattern, and we won't see the price timing favorability we normally capture in Q1 given the low-cost inflation environment we're experiencing this year.

在獲利能力方面，鑑於銷售起步較慢且今年同期銷售日數比去年少一天，營業利潤率將在第一季度面臨挑戰，之後將在今年全年逐步上升。這偏離了我們正常的季節性模式，鑑於我們今年經歷的低成本通膨環境，我們不會看到我們通常在第一季捕捉到的價格時機有利性。

With this, first quarter operating margins will be closer to the bottom of our 2025 full year guidance range around 15%. This will drive year-over-year EPS growth to be flat to slightly down in the first quarter and will ramp thereafter as the year continues.

這樣一來，第一季的營業利潤率將更接近我們 2025 年全年指引範圍的底部，即 15% 左右。這將導致第一季每股收益同比增長持平或略有下降，並隨著時間的推移逐漸上升。

Lastly, we're reiterating the core tenets of our long-term earnings framework including continuous strong topline growth comprised of 400 to 500 basis points of annual volume outgrowth in the High-Touch US business and annual revenue growth in the teens for Endless Assortment, generally stable gross profit margins within each segment, and SG&A growing slower than sales over time while still investing in demand generating activities to drive sustainable long-term growth.

最後，我們重申長期獲利框架的核心原則，包括持續強勁的營收成長，包括 High-Touch 美國業務每年銷售成長 400 至 500 個基點，Endless Assortment 每年營收成長 10%；各部門的毛利率普遍穩定，且銷售、一般及行政開支的成長速度低於銷售額，同時仍對需求創造活動進行投資，以推動可持續的長期成長。

Executing against these tenets to drive double-digit EPS growth under normal market conditions. Combining this with our balanced capital allocation strategy, we think this represents an attractive return profile that can drive significant value creation for shareholders.

依照這些原則執行，在正常市場條件下推動每股盈餘達到兩位數成長。結合我們平衡的資本配置策略，我們認為這代表著有吸引力的回報狀況，可以為股東創造巨大價值。

With that, I'll turn it back to D.G. for closing remarks.

說完這些，我會把話題轉回給 D.G。致最後致詞。

Thanks, Dee. In 2024, our team members showed up every day, living Grainger's purpose and putting the customer first, leading the strong results for the company. As we head into 2025, I'm confident that durable advantage will allow us to continue to gain share and create strong returns for all stakeholders.

謝謝，Dee。2024年，我們的團隊成員每天都在工作，實踐格蘭傑的宗旨，以客戶為中心，帶領公司取得強勁的業績。當我們邁入 2025 年時，我相信持久的優勢將使我們繼續獲得份額並為所有利益相關者創造豐厚的回報。

With that, we'll open the line up for questions.

現在，我們將開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Tommy Moll, Stephens.

（操作員指示）湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Good morning. And thank you for taking my questions. D.G., I wanted to start with a question on the new volume-based outgrowth metric that you've provided. So the [400 to 500], I believe, is unchanged from the prior framework.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。D.G.，我想先問一個關於您提供的新的基於數量的成長指標的問題。因此，我認為 [400 到 500] 與先前的框架相比沒有變化。

If we look at 2024, you were a little bit below the low end of that range. And I think the guidance for this year contemplates being around the low end of that range. So to the extent you can bridge us on those two years what the headwinds were and what keeps you confident in that 400 to 500 longer term, that would be appreciated. Thank you.

如果我們展望 2024 年，你會發現其略低於該範圍的低端。我認為今年的指導價格將處於該範圍的低端。因此，如果您能告訴我們這兩年面臨的阻力是什麼，以及是什麼讓您對長期的 400 到 500 年保持信心，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Sure. Thank you. So first of all, the biggest dislocation has been on the price component, and we actually hit that. There's some product categories that we don't actually play in that have had more price inflation. So we felt like moving to the volume metric made the most sense.

當然。謝謝。首先，最大的混亂出現在價格因素上，我們實際上已經遇到了這個問題。有些我們實際上並未涉及的產品類別的價格上漲幅度更大。因此我們覺得轉向體積測量是最有意義的。

We were lower than the 400 for 2024. There was still dislocation, we believe, in the volume metric as well. And I will say that this metric does get restated as well at that point looking forward. So we have found that we may have done better than we've stated here that is possible.

2024 年我們的數字低於 400。我們認為，體積指標也仍然存在混亂。我想說的是，展望未來，這項指標也確實會得到重申。因此我們發現我們可能做得比我們在這裡所說的更好。

So the 400 -- you see 400, 450, 450 moving forward. The 400 is really a nod to the fact that we found that when we expanded seller coverage, if we went with too many sellers at one time in a region, we struggled to hit the execution we wanted.

因此，400 — — 你會看到 400、450、450 在向前發展。400 這個數字確實表明了這樣一個事實：當我們擴大賣家覆蓋範圍時，如果我們在某個地區同時與太多賣家合作，我們就很難達到我們想要的效果。

So we scaled that back a little bit and only had one region of 70 new sellers in 2024, and we're going in smaller chunks moving forward. So that slows down that metric a little bit for this coming year. But basically, nothing has really changed in reality.

因此，我們稍微縮減了規模，到 2024 年只有一個地區新增 70 名賣家，以後我們將以更小的規模推進。因此，這會使得今年該指標的速度稍微放慢一點。但從根本上來說，現實什麼都沒有改變。

And as a follow-up, D.G., I wanted to ask about what's assumed in your outlook this year on government spend. And I mention that just because there's plenty in the headlines these days about potential headwinds there. And so, as you put together your outlook for this year, I'm just curious what assumptions you made?

作為後續問題，D.G.，我想問您對今年政府支出的展望是什麼。我提到這一點，只是因為最近的新聞標題有很多關於那裡可能出現的阻力的報道。因此，當您制定今年的展望時，我很好奇您做了哪些假設？

Yeah. We obviously have a strong government business. I would remind everybody that the vast majority of -- the majority of that is actually state and local government. So federal government is a smaller portion. Of the federal government portion, military is by far the biggest chunk.

是的。我們的政府業務顯然很強大。我要提醒大家，其中絕大多數──絕大多數其實是州和地方政府。因此聯邦政府只佔較小部分。在聯邦政府部分中，軍隊佔了迄今為止最大份額。

And we do very well in serving the military. And we don't think that's going to be affected much, and it may actually be a positive potentially. So we don't have a huge impact in there right now from some of the government changes given where we play.

我們在為軍隊服務方面做得非常出色。我們認為這不會受到太大影響，實際上可能具有積極作用。因此，考慮到我們所在的地區，政府的一些變化目前不會對我們產生太大的影響。

And we obviously are constantly looking at regulations and making sure we understand what's going on. We feel pretty good about our federal business and our state and local business at this point.

顯然，我們會不斷關注法規並確保我們了解正在發生的事情。目前，我們對我們的聯邦業務以及州和地方業務感覺非常良好。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

Good morning, all. And thanks for taking the questions. My first question is just on the outlook for '25. You've got the market volume down 1%. Can you just talk about some of the assumptions you've made? And did you include anything for tariff uncertainty in that outlook?

大家早安。感謝您回答這些問題。我的第一個問題是關於25年的前景。你的市場規模下降了1%。您能談談您所做的一些假設嗎？您是否在展望中考慮了關稅不確定性因素？

Yeah. I'll start with that. So yeah, we're assuming that the US MRO volume portion of the market will be flat to down 1.5%. And if you think about that at the midpoint, that is about where we believe 2024 was. And so, we're really not expecting -- like some are, a macro step-change in the year. So we're assuming 2025 is going to be like 2024 at this point.

是的。我先從那裡開始。所以是的，我們假設美國 MRO 市佔率將持平或下降 1.5%。如果你從中點來考慮，我們認為那大約是 2024 年。因此，我們確實不像有些人那樣期待今年會出現宏觀的重大變化。因此，我們假設 2025 年將會與 2024 年類似。

And then to the second part of your question, since the landscape around tariffs is so uncertain and changing rapidly and daily, we chose to not include any tariff-related impacts in the guide at this point. And as more is known and we understand it and can work with our supply base, we of course will run that through our numbers. And if an adjustment is needed, we will do that at the next time we speak with you.

然後回答你問題的第二部分，由於關稅情況非常不確定，而且每天都在迅速變化，我們選擇目前不在指南中包含任何與關稅相關的影響。隨著我們了解得越來越多，理解得越來越多，並且可以與我們的供應基地合作，我們當然會透過數字來運作這一點。如果需要進行調整，我們會在下次與您交談時進行調整。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And I think that's fair. And then my second question is just on the opportunity with AI. And thanks for the extra detail in the deck, I'm looking at page 7 here. I guess, D.G., this may be hard to answer because it's early, but should we view AI as potentially transformative for Grainger or is that a bit strong? Maybe it's just another tool in the toolbox to help you outgrow?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。我認為這是公平的。我的第二個問題是關於人工智慧帶來的機會。感謝您提供的額外詳細信息，我正在看第 7 頁。我想，D.G.，這個問題可能很難回答，因為現在還為時過早，但我們是否應該將人工智慧視為 Grainger 的潛在變革，或者這種看法是否有點過分？也許它只是工具箱中幫助您成長的另一個工具？

Yeah. I think the way I view the AI tools is the powerful set of tools that can help make the business better and really important to point the effort at the right issues for the company and define processes that will benefit from AI.

是的。我認為人工智慧工具是一套強大的工具，可以幫助企業改善業務，並且對於將努力指向公司正確的問題以及定義將從人工智慧中受益的流程非常重要。

It's also really important to have data. If you don't have the right data, right data feed, you can get some junk out. And so, we've been investing in those data assets with PIM and KIM over the last several years. And we've also invested in understanding how best to use AI and we're experimenting and learning about where it plays best.

擁有數據也非常重要。如果您沒有正確的數據和正確的數據饋送，您將獲得一些垃圾資訊。因此，過去幾年我們一直在利用 PIM 和 KIM 投資這些數據資產。我們也投入了大量精力來了解如何最好地利用人工智慧，並且正在試驗和學習它的最佳發揮領域。

We've been using ML, which is a part of AI for a long time. And we have made something like 18 working models in the business that run all kinds of things. So this is not really new to us. We do think some of the tools will be -- give us an advantage in certain areas given our data quality and the amount of data we have. I'd leave it there.

我們一直在使用 ML，它是 AI 的一部分。我們在業務中建立了大約 18 種可以運行各種事物的工作模型。所以這對我們來說並不是什麼新鮮事。我們確實認為，考慮到我們的數據品質和數據量，某些工具將在某些領域為我們帶來優勢。我會把它留在那裡。

Sabrina Abrams, Bank of America.

美國銀行的薩布麗娜‧艾布拉姆斯 (Sabrina Abrams)。

Good morning. So I'm also going to ask a question about the volume target. So I see the slide that lays out the framework, the shift from four to five target to be about volume outgrowth rather than the total market. Just to clarify, are there any changes to how you're thinking about your gross margin or your operating margin or the EPS CAGR long-term targets given the shift in the outgrowth target?

早安.所以我還想問一個關於數量目標的問題。因此，我看到幻燈片中列出的框架，從四個目標到五個目標的轉變是關於銷售成長而不是整個市場。只是為了澄清一下，考慮到成長目標的變化，您對毛利率、營業利潤率或每股盈餘複合年增長率長期目標的看法有什麼變化嗎？

No. there's no changes at all. In fact, the outgrowth target is still the same too. So really, there's no change in anything or our confidence about the earnings algorithm going forward. Nothing's changed.

沒有，根本沒有改變。事實上，成長目標仍然是一樣的。所以實際上，對於未來收益演算法的信心並沒有任何改變。什麼都沒改變。

Okay. Great. Thank you. And then as we think about the margin ramp through the year, I guess, how should I think about the drivers of margin maybe at the bottom of Q1 and then ramping through the year? Just like looking at it, I think the price comps are more difficult in the back half, at least for US HTS. So what drives the improvement off of Q1?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。然後，當我們思考全年利潤率的上升時，我想，我該如何思考利潤率的驅動因素，也許是在第一季末，然後在全年上升？就像看起來一樣，我認為下半年的價格比較更加困難，至少對美國 HTS 來說是這樣。那麼，推動第一季業績改善的因素有哪些呢？

Yeah. So let me take it back a little bit, and I'll start with sales and I'll end with profitability because there is a little bit of noise, especially in Q1. And so, as I mentioned on the call for the first quarter, we feel like we've had a slow start and that will flow through the P&L mostly due to January results and holiday timing and some adverse weather. And so, that's going to also impact the first quarter.

是的。所以讓我稍微回顧一下，我將從銷售額開始，以盈利能力結束，因為存在一些噪音，特別是在第一季。因此，正如我在第一季電話會議上提到的那樣，我們感覺我們的開局比較緩慢，而且這將主要影響損益表，主要是因為一月份的業績、假期時間和一些惡劣天氣。所以這也將影響第一季。

And so, when you translate daily constant currency sales to reported sales, there's a lot of noise in the first quarter. And that's driven by foreign exchange headwinds, which are most pronounced again in the first quarter. And also, in the first quarter, there's one fewer selling day in February, which reduces revenue roughly by about $70 million, representing about 160 basis points headwind to reported sales.

因此，當您將每日固定匯率銷售額轉換為報告的銷售額時，第一季會出現大量噪音。這是由外匯逆風所致，且在第一季再次表現得最為明顯。此外，在第一季度，2 月份的銷售日減少了一天，導致收入減少約 7,000 萬美元，對報告的銷售額造成約 160 個基點的阻力。

And that all translates to the number that we provided in prepared remarks that we believe our reported sales for the quarter were in about [$4.3 billion] around that area for the first quarter. And so, from there, we're still not going to have a typical seasonality with the business because generally, in the first quarter, we raised price more significantly.

所有這些都體現了我們在準備好的評論中提供的數字，即我們認為本季度報告的銷售額約為 [43 億美元] 左右。因此，從那時起，我們的業務仍然不會出現典型的季節性，因為一般來說，在第一季度，我們的價格上調幅度更大。

We've noted that price will be minimal in the fourth quarter -- first quarter, so you're not going to have the change sequentially from Q1 to Q2. So I wanted to call that out as well. And given the slower start to sales when you include the FX impacts as well as the daily sales count, operating margin in Q1 will be about the lowest of the year, and we kind of said that in the prepared remarks as well, we think it's going to land around [15%] for the full year guidance range. This will drive EPS down to be flat to slightly down in the first quarter and then, that will also ramp thereafter.

我們注意到，第四季（第一季）的價格變化將很小，因此從第一季到第二季不會出現連續的變化。所以我也想說這一點。考慮到外匯影響和每日銷售量的影響，銷售起步較慢，第一季的營業利潤率將是今年以來的最低水平，我們在準備好的評論中也提到了這一點，我們認為全年指導範圍將達到[15%]左右。這將導致每股收益在第一季持平或略有下降，隨後也將上升。

Basically, it's because of the sales impact. And basically, that's the whole game here in the first quarter. There's some strange things going on with sales and FX.

基本上，這是因為銷售影響。基本上，這就是第一節比賽的整個過程。銷售和外匯方面發生了一些奇怪的事情。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛曼蒂，貝爾德。

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning everyone. D.G., just to follow on to what you just said, question on contribution margins, I guess, not just in the first quarter but more holistically for the year. At what rate would you expect unexpected incremental volume revenue dollars, so not tariffs or anything like that, but revenue dollars that were unexpected to flow through to EBIT and, let's say, that's manifested in the market growing 2% rather than flat to down 1.5%?

是的。謝謝。大家早安。D.G.，只是想接著您剛才說的，關於貢獻利潤率的問題，我想，不僅僅是第一季度的，而是全年更全面的。您預期意外增量收入（不是關稅或類似的東西，而是意外流入息稅前利潤的收入）會以什麼樣的速度增長，假設這體現在市場增長 2% 而不是持平或下降 1.5% ％？

Yeah. I mean, we would expect -- if you're saying if we get better market conditions, north of 20% would be some of the incremental margin.

是的。我的意思是，我們預計——如果你說如果我們獲得更好的市場條件，那麼 20% 以上的增量利潤將會是一些。

Yeah. Okay. And then just one for Dee quickly. As we look at slide 23 and we're bridging from the EBIT to the EPS, I know you have these below the line items for non-controlling and allocation of participating securities. Could you just tell us what your rough estimate is for that? Is it $95 million, $96 million, something like that?

是的。好的。然後很快給 Dee 一個。當我們看幻燈片 23 並且我們從息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 過渡到每股盈餘 (EPS) 時，我知道您在非控制性和參與證券分配的項目下方有這些內容。您能否告訴我們您對此的粗略估計是多少？是 9500 萬美元、9600 萬美元還是類似的金額？

Let me get to the slide. You said slide 23? Yes. I think that's all right. Yeah, you're looking at OIE. Yeah, that's right.

讓我看一下投影片。您說的是第 23 張投影片嗎？是的。我認為這樣就行了。是的，您正在看 OIE。是的，沒錯。

Jacob Levinson, Melius Research.

Jacob Levinson，Melius Research。

Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to expand on Ryan's question a little bit around AI. And you mentioned you've been using machine learning for some time, but maybe you can give us an example or two of where there's been a step change in the capabilities that you have today or expect to have just given the advancements that we've seen coming out of Silicon Valley.

大家早安。我只是想稍微擴展一下 Ryan 有關人工智慧的問題。你提到你已經使用機器學習有一段時間了，但也許你可以給我們舉一兩個例子，說明你目前擁有的能力發生了哪些重大變化，或者考慮到我們所取得的進步，你預計在哪些方面會發生重大變化來自矽谷。

Yeah. I mean, I can give you -- I'll give you two, and I mentioned these in the prepared remarks. But a couple of years ago, we developed our own machine learning model to help stock, our distribution centers. And this is a messy model with a lot of data because you've got to have supplier lead times and slotting, physicians and everything in the model, and then you'd let the model work to get the best service out of that.

是的。我的意思是，我可以給你——我會給你兩個，我在準備好的發言中提到了這些。但幾年前，我們開發了自己的機器學習模型來幫助我們的配送中心庫存。這是一個包含大量數據的混亂模型，因為你必須擁有供應商的交貨時間和時間段、醫生以及模型中的所有數據，然後你才能讓模型發揮作用，從中獲得最好的服務。

And that has driven significantly improved service in our buildings. And so, that model continues to learn, and we continue to use that to basically make sure we have the right products in the right place for our customers. And that's an example of a step forward.

這顯著改善了我們樓宇的服務。因此，該模型會持續學習，我們會繼續使用該模型來確保我們能將正確的產品在正確的地點提供給我們的客戶。這就是向前邁進的一個例子。

I think the other one is we've been using generative AI to work with chatbot with our chat process in our contact centers. And that has helped make our responses to customers better, help them find products faster and we're going to expand that to other channels as well. So we feel that a lot of opportunities with generative AI with our proprietary data to basically provide better customer experience, and we're going to continue working on those things.

我認為另一個是我們一直在使用生成式人工智慧與聊天機器人合作，在我們的聯絡中心進行聊天流程。這有助於我們更好地回應客戶，幫助他們更快找到產品，我們也將把這項功能擴展到其他管道。因此，我們認為，利用我們的專有數據進行生成人工智慧有很多機會可以提供更好的客戶體驗，我們將繼續致力於這些事情。

That is super interesting. And actually, just on the DC point, are these new facilities, when you build something from the ground up, I'd have to imagine even a facility built five years ago is kind of outdated from a technology and automation perspective given all the changes that have happened in AI and just warehouse automation in general. But are these facilities -- how much more productive are they, I guess, is the question relative to the legacy stuff?

那真是太有趣了。實際上，就DC 而言，這些新設施，當你從頭開始建造某些東西時，我不得不想像，即使是五年前建造的設施，從技術和自動化的角度來看，考慮到所有的變化，也已經過時了這在人工智慧和倉庫自動化領域普遍存在。但是這些設施──它們的生產力有多高？

Yeah. In terms of distribution center productivity, certainly, when we put the building in [Manuka], that was the largest [distribution] system in the world, we believe. That is somewhat old technology but still pretty effective. We got probably 4 times the picking rates for small parts out of that building.

是的。就配送中心生產力而言，當我們在 [Manuka] 建造這座建築時，我們相信那是世界上最大的 [配送] 系統。這是一種有些古老的技術，但仍然非常有效。我們從那棟建築中獲得的小零件揀選率可能是原來的四倍。

The issue is a lot of the building has forklift drivers and stuff, and that doesn't get us productive. So the overall building is certainly more productive than it was before. But what we've been able to automate and what the industry has been able to automate is mostly small parts picking rather than full pallet picking.

問題是很多建築物都有堆高機司機和其他人員，這無法提高我們的工作效率。因此，整體建築肯定比以前更有效率。但我們已經能夠實現的自動化以及行業已經能夠實現的自動化主要是小部件的揀選而不是整托盤的揀選。

And so, parts of the building get a lot more productive and parts have not, I'd say. Parts are still driving these around. We actually though have also been playing with AI tools that allow our DC team members to be working and get single flow so you can push what to do next to them rather than working on 45-minute slots. And that allows them to based on where they're at get the next most efficient thing sent to them. And that we think is going to be pretty beneficial for us as well.

因此，我想說，部分建築物的生產力得到了提高，而部分建築物的生產力則沒有。零件仍在驅動它們運轉。實際上，我們也一直在使用 AI 工具，讓我們的 DC 團隊成員能夠同時工作並獲得單一流程，這樣您就可以推動他們下一步該做什麼，而不是在 45 分鐘的時間內工作。這樣他們就能根據自己所在的位置獲得下一個最有效的東西。我們認為這對我們也非常有利。

Christopher Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯多福·史奈德。

Thank you, guys. I hopped on a bit late. So I hope this wasn't already addressed. But I wanted to ask about price and gross margin. I think the minimal price expectation for 2025 is maybe a bit below what the market was thinking. So I just wanted to confirm that this is really just a reflection of your expectation for what you think the producers will ask for. And then does the company feel like they can push incremental price if needed?

謝謝你們。我來得有點晚了。所以我希望這個問題尚未解決。但我想問一下價格和毛利率。我認為 2025 年的最低價格預期可能略低於市場預期。所以我只是想確認這實際上只是你對製片人要求的期望的反映。那麼，公司是否認為如果需要的話他們可以提高價格呢？

So we look at a lot of things when we set price. And one is what competitors are doing. One is what our suppliers are asking for. Last year, we were pretty much flat from a GP perspective. We expect to be similar in a High-Touch model next year. So yes, our price expectations reflect what our suppliers are asking of us as well, and that's an important element.

因此我們在定價時會考慮很多因素。一是競爭對手在做什麼。一是我們的供應商的要求。去年，從 GP 角度來看，我們的業績基本上持平。我們預計明年的 High-Touch 模式也會出現類似的情況。所以是的，我們的價格預期也反映了供應商對我們的要求，這是一個重要因素。

We think if there is price in the market, we can certainly pass price. And if there's not, then passing price probably isn't the right thing to do. Our price tenet is basically to stay price competitive and over the long term be relatively price cost-neutral, and we think we can do those things.

我們認為如果市場有價格，當然可以傳遞價格。如果沒有，那麼傳遞價格可能不是正確的做法。我們的價格原則基本上是保持價格競爭力，並且從長遠來看保持相對的價格成本中性，我們認為我們可以做到這一點。

Yeah. I appreciate that. Thank you. And I think you guys were price/cost-neutral in Q4. It seems like the expectation to stay price/cost-neutral in '25. So I guess, is there anything weird with like the typical gross margin seasonality?

是的。我很感激。謝謝。我認為你們第四季的價格/成本是中性的。這似乎是對 25 年保持價格/成本中立的預期。所以我想，典型的毛利率季節性有什麼奇怪的嗎？

I know Dee called out some moving parts in Q1 with FX because typically, we get a pretty material step-up on gross margin from Q4 to Q1, which could put Q1 in all of that 40% range, which makes low 38% for the year, feel like a relatively low bar. But let me know if I'm missing something on that, if there's anything weird on the seasonality. Thank you.

我知道Dee 指出了第一季外匯業務的一些變動，因為通常情況下，從第四季度到第一季度，我們的毛利率會有相當大的提升，這可能會使第一季的毛利率達到40% 左右，而第三季的毛利率僅為38%。但如果我遺漏了什麼，或季節性有什麼異常，請告訴我。謝謝。

Yeah. Chris, I'll step in here a little bit. As you and D.G. were discussing, we're really trying to focus our price inflation based upon what we're seeing with our supplier negotiations. And we're not seeing the supplier inflation that then would translate into price inflation like what you're seeing from some of these market indexes.

是的。克里斯，我來這裡稍微說一下。正如您和 D.G.正在討論，我們實際上正試圖根據我們在供應商談判中看到的情況來關注價格上漲。我們並沒有看到供應商通膨會轉化為物價通膨，就像你從一些市場指數中看到的那樣。

And so then even when we do our straight, we're not seeing that. And one of the things I called out in my prepared remarks is that we do see other product categories that are listed as industrial, and they are in the PPI sub-index.

所以，即使我們盡力了，我們也不會看到這一點。我在準備好的演講中提到的一件事是，我們確實看到其他產品類別被列為工業，它們位於 PPI 子指數中。

But those are things like airplanes and airplane parts and medical equipment, and we don't sell any of those things. So within that index, there is inflation on those products, but those are not products that we actually sell nor bring into our inventory. So we're not trying to chase that type of inflation.

但那些是飛機、飛機零件和醫療設備之類的東西，我們不賣這些東西。因此，在該指數中，這些產品存在通貨膨脹，但這些不是我們實際銷售或納入庫存的產品。所以我們不想追逐那種通貨膨脹。

Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的克里斯托弗·格林。

Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. So just on the immediate bridging of outgrowth. On the volume basis, you had 2%, 2.5% in the second half and then 4%, 4.5% for next -- for the current year. Is that something that kind of builds back gradually given the steeper outgrowth comps in the first half? Whereby the first quarter, you're still transitioning to rebuild momentum?

是的。謝謝。早安.因此，這只是直接彌補成長不足。從數量來看，下半年的成長率為 2%、2.5%，而今年的成長率為 4%、4.5%。考慮到上半年更快的成長速度，這是否會逐漸恢復？那麼第一季度，您仍處於轉型階段以重建發展勢頭嗎？

What I will say is we talked about what we think Q1 will look like, be a slower start to January. So we may have a little softness there. But yes, with us targeting the lower end of the 4% to 5%, that would imply that we would expect some ramping of share gain through the year.

我要說的是，我們討論了我們認為第一季的情況，一月份的開局會比較緩慢。因此我們可能會有一點柔軟。但是，是的，由於我們的目標是 4% 到 5% 的低端，這意味著我們預計今年的市場份額將增加。

Okay. And then on the gross margin performance, the 39.6% in the fourth quarter, arguably, the cleanest of the year with lapping some mismatches, and you had some call outs earlier in the year. So if we were to regard that as something of a jumping-off point, is there a reason that isn't reading through or staying at a bit higher level than how you're benchmarking?

好的。然後就毛利率表現而言，第四季度為 39.6%，可以說是今年最乾淨的季度，彌補了一些不匹配的情況，並且在今年早些時候也出現過一些問題。因此，如果我們將其視為一個起點，那麼有沒有理由不通讀或保持比基準測試略高的水平呢？

I think I want to make sure you're talking about Q4 results?

我想確定您談論的是第四季度的結果嗎？

Yeah. Well, we did have about a 40 basis point tailwind this year from the fact that we had an E&O adjustment in the prior year. That's not sustainable. But the things that may be more sustainable is that we did get a slight mix and freight favorability of about 30 basis points in that number.

是的。嗯，由於我們去年進行了 E&O 調整，因此今年我們確實獲得了大約 40 個基點的順風。這是不可持續的。但更可持續的情況是，我們確實獲得了略微的混合和貨運有利性，大約 30 個基點。

And as we continue to talk about at the total company level as the EA business grow faster than High-Touch, we will have a headwind from BU mix, and that was about 20 basis points. And so, there were some ins and outs there that total to about 50 basis points year-over-year compared to Q4 2023.

隨著我們繼續從整個公司層面討論 EA 業務的成長速度快於 High-Touch，我們將面臨來自 BU 組合的阻力，大約 20 個基點。因此，與 2023 年第四季相比，這裡的一些變化總計約為 50 個基點。

Ken Newman, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

肯‧紐曼 (Ken Newman)，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in here. Dee, I was curious if you could just quantify for us how much the fourth quarter ADS was impacted by the timing of holidays and extended customer shutdowns. And then just understanding that there is a lot of noise in 1Q, I'm just really curious if we've seen weekly sales trends in January return to those pre-shutdown levels yet.

嘿，大家早安。謝謝你擠我來這裡。Dee，我很好奇，您是否可以量化一下第四季度的 ADS 受到假期時間和客戶延長停工時間的影響有多大。然後了解到第一季存在很多噪音，我真的很好奇我們是否已經看到 1 月的每週銷售趨勢恢復到停工前的水平。

Yeah. So if you look at the fourth quarter, we're estimating that -- remember, there was a hurricane and then there was holiday timing. And so, there was about 80 basis points impact or benefit from the hurricane for us that happened in October but on the quarter with 80 bps. And then holiday timing of shutdowns was about 50 basis points. And so, when you normalize for that, the [4.7 goes to about 4.5].

是的。因此，如果你看一下第四季度，我們估計——記住，當時發生了颶風，然後又恰逢假期。因此，10 月的颶風為我們帶來了約 80 個基點的影響或收益，但本季的收益為 80 個基點。假期停工時間約 50 個基點。因此，當你對此進行規範化時，[4.7 變為約 4.5]。

Got it. And then maybe color on the January trends?

知道了。然後也許是一月份流行趨勢的顏色？

Yeah. So the first full week of January, there was a lot of weather events that were challenging to understand. But I would say other than that, things have fought back to what is normal activity.

是的。因此，一月份的第一個整週，出現了許多難以理解的天氣事件。但我想說，除此之外，事情已經恢復正常。

And then just for my follow up here, I know there's a lot of moving pieces here and, and a lot of investment going into place here in 2025. Is there any way to quantify the dollar SG&A spend for each of those buckets just to help us bridge to what's going to be fixed investment versus what's tied to whatever the volume flex will be in the year?

然後，就我的後續情況而言，我知道這裡有很多活動的部分，並且到 2025 年這裡將會有許多投資到位。是否有任何方法可以量化每個類別的銷售、一般及行政開支，從而幫助我們區分固定投資與年度交易量彈性相關的投資？

Well, generally we don't share our investment -- dollar inputs to the business. But I'll say this, we are going to intend to invest incrementally in marketing. D.G. talked about our pay-with-seller ads from a geography perspective. And we're looking to add one, maybe two, geographies later in the year.

嗯，一般來說，我們不會分享我們的投資——對企業的美元投入。但我要說的是，我們打算逐步增加對行銷的投資。危險品從地理角度討論了我們的向賣家付款的廣告。我們希望在今年稍後增加一個或兩個地區。

And those are our biggest investments that drive demand generation. We'll continue to look at adding products as needed in our merchandising area. That also is accretive. But we've built those teams, so it's not a lot of incremental SG&A. It's more incremental inventory if we find the right products and if we want to bring those products then into stock.

這些都是我們推動需求產生的最大投資。我們將繼續考慮在我們的商品銷售區內添加所需的產品。這也是一種增值行為。但我們已經建立了這些團隊，因此銷售、一般及行政開支的增量並不多。如果我們找到合適的產品並且希望將這些產品納入庫存，那麼就會增加庫存。

The only other thing I'd add is that on the technology side, we do continue to invest in technology to create advantage long term. It doesn't show up as huge increases in SG&A. But certainly, on a cash basis, it's a big part of our spend.

我唯一想補充的是，在技術方面，我們確實會繼續投資科技以創造長期優勢。它並沒有表現為銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的大幅增加。但可以肯定的是，以現金計算，這是我們支出的很大一部分。

Patrick Baumann, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的派崔克‧鮑曼 (Patrick Baumann)。

Good morning. Thanks for the questions. A couple of quick ones. Fastenal talks to, I think, a need for like high single-digit topline growth to expand their margins. And then mid single-digit growth is where they can defend them. Just thinking about your long-term algo, is it similar for Grainger where you need a high single-digit top line to get the high-teens incremental that you need to expand your margins?

早安.感謝您的提問。幾個簡單的。我認為，Fastenal 需要高個位數的營收成長來擴大其利潤率。然後中等個位數的成長是他們可以捍衛的。想想您的長期演算法，對於 Grainger 來說是否類似，您需要一個高個位數的頂線來獲得擴大利潤所需的高十幾個百分點的增量？

No. For us -- I mean I'm not sure what Fastenal said. For us, I think it's probably more like mid single-digits we'd see expansion and lower single-digits, it would be challenging.

不。對我們來說——我的意思是我不確定 Fastenal 說了什麼。對我們來說，我認為這可能更像是中等個位數的擴張，或是較低的個位數，這將是具有挑戰性的。

Okay. And then on tariffs, I know they haven't come yet, maybe they won't, who knows. But if you could update us on your global sourcing mix by some of the key regions, maybe China, Mexico, Canada, would be helpful.

好的。關於關稅，我知道他們還沒出台，也許他們不會出台，誰知道呢。但如果您可以向我們介紹您的一些主要地區的全球採購結構，例如中國、墨西哥、加拿大，可能會有所幫助。

And then how you'd plan to handle tariffs if they come, will you price to try to hold your gross margin steady? Or will you just put a surcharge in and simply pass the cost on to customers? Curious on any thinking around that.

如果徵收關稅，您打算如何應對，您會透過定價來維持毛利率穩定嗎？還是你只會收取附加費並將成本轉嫁給客戶？我很好奇對此的任何想法。

Yeah. I mean in terms of our footprint, we have global sourcing that is probably 60%, 70% in China right now. We are not uniquely exposed. Most of the things that we get from China, everybody gets from China. And we do have sourcing in Mexico. We've moved some product to Vietnam. We've moved some to India. So we have a broad footprint, for sure.

是的。就我們的足跡而言，我們目前的全球採購大概有 60% 到 70% 在中國。我們並不是唯一受到感染的人。我們從中國獲得的大部分東西，每個人都從中國獲得。我們確實在墨西哥有採購。我們已將一些產品轉移到越南。我們已將其中一些轉移到印度。因此我們肯定擁有廣泛的影響力。

In terms of the uncertainty of the tariffs is still pretty strong. But in terms of tariffs, depending on what happens in the marketplace, the competitive environment, we would typically try to pass on and keep the same margins in what we pass on.

就關稅而言，不確定性仍然相當強。但就關稅而言，根據市場情況和競爭環境，我們通常會嘗試轉嫁關稅，並保持轉嫁關稅的相同利潤率。

It just depends on the nature of the tariffs, I'd say, there's still a lot of uncertainty. But we certainly have a good sense for our footprint, and we've been actively moving some of it over the last couple of years.

我想說，這只取決於關稅的性質，仍然存在許多不確定性。但我們確實很清楚自己的足跡，過去幾年我們也一直在積極地轉移足跡。

Chris Dankert, Loop Capital Markets.

Chris Dankert，Loop Capital Markets。

Thanks for taking the question. I guess to circle back to that long-term algorithm, maybe on gross margin. Historically, I think the target had been like a 37% gross margin. We're above that range. So it feels like because this mix is stabilizing to being a slight headwind holding the line at 39%, it seems like that's a pretty good performance.

感謝您回答這個問題。我想回到那個長期演算法，也許是關於毛利率。從歷史上看，我認為目標是37%的毛利率。我們已經超出了這個範圍。因此感覺因為這種組合正在穩定下來，略微逆風保持在 39%，所以似乎這是一個相當不錯的表現。

So in order to expand EBIT, we've got to really lever on SG&A. How would you push back on that characterization? I guess I'm surprised that you think you can expand even on 4%, 5% topline.

因此，為了擴大息稅前利潤，我們必須真正利用銷售、一般和行政費用。您會如何反駁這種說法？我很驚訝你認為你甚至可以將營收擴大到 4%、5%。

Yeah. I think that's a great question. And yes, if you go back several years ago, you're exactly right. We were saying around this time, we were targeting to be about 37% total company gross margins. We've done better than that.

是的。我認為這個問題問得很好。是的，如果你回顧幾年前，你就完全正確了。我們當時說過，我們的目標是將公司總毛利率達到 37% 左右。我們做得比這更好。

And as we look at our outlook here now and as everyone plans to look in the future, we felt noting that remaining stable around 39%, based upon our value proposition and our two go-to-market models makes the most sense based on what we're seeing from share gain as well as from competitive pricing. So I think you've got it right. I think we've included details like that on slide 24 that align with the long-term earnings framework.

當我們審視當前的前景以及每個人對未來的規劃時，我們認為，基於我們的價值主張和兩種市場模式，保持 39% 左右的穩定性是最合理的。的定價中看到了這一點。所以我認為你說的對。我認為我們在第 24 張投影片中已經包含了與長期獲利框架相符的詳細資訊。

And we would also agree that SG&A leverage is going to have to be the primary driver of any margin expansion going forward, no question.

我們也同意，毫無疑問，銷售、一般和行政費用槓桿將成為未來利潤率擴大的主要驅動力。

Got it. Thank you so much for the color there. And I guess just finally, thinking about your market outgrowth formula as well, given your mix, you've got more health care, hospitality, government than just the IP or ISM measurements would have, right?

知道了。非常感謝那裡的色彩。我想，最後，考慮一下您的市場成長公式，考慮到您的組合，您擁有的醫療保健、酒店業、政府業比 IP 或 ISM 測量的還要多，對嗎？

So I think it would make sense for you guys to outperform when industrial is slow. Maybe it's a harder push when you see the acceleration in the ISM. Any thoughts around how we should be interpreting that over time, perhaps?

因此我認為，當工業發展緩慢時，你們表現出色是合理的。當你看到 ISM 中的加速時，也許推動起來會更困難。您能談談我們隨著時間的推移應該如何解釋這一點嗎？

Well, I mean, obviously, manufacturing is still our biggest segment. So roughly a third of our business is manufacturing. I would say, there's probably over another third of the business is probably tied to industrial activity.

嗯，我的意思是，顯然製造業仍然是我們最大的部門。因此，我們的業務大約有三分之一是製造業。我想說，可能還有超過三分之一的業務可能與工業活動有關。

So we are very linked to industrial activity. I do think that the government business is a bit unique and so is the health care business, but those don't make up as much as the total. So I think we're still very tied to IP and that will always be the case given our structure.

因此，我們與工業活動密切相關。我確實認為政府業務有點獨特，醫療保健業務也是如此，但這些並不佔整體的比例。因此我認為我們仍然與 IP 緊密相關，考慮到我們的結構，這種情況將始終如此。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Deane Dray。

Good afternoon. Thanks for putting me in. Just a question related to the tariffs. And I know your customers would never preposition ahead of a tariff just because it's all MRO and they're not really going to store ahead. But how about Grainger, just in terms of your product positioning, did you in any way do some accelerated ordering ahead of what could be a disruptive period, especially from China?

午安.謝謝你讓我加入。這只是一個與關稅有關的問題。而且我知道您的客戶永遠不會提前設定關稅，因為這都是 MRO，他們實際上不會提前儲存。但是，就 Grainger 的產品定位而言，在可能出現的混亂時期到來之前，您是否以某種方式進行了加速訂貨，尤其是來自中國的訂貨？

So in general, we evaluate every year whether or not we want to make prebuys at the end of the year. We do a modest amount, and I don't think that really has changed for this year. So we probably did a few things that might have helped us in case this happens. But we don't get in the business of trying to prebuy in a big way, typically. So that's really not part of our motion.

因此一般來說，我們每年都會在年底評估是否進行預購。我們做的工作量不大，我認為今年的情況並沒有什麼改變。因此，我們可能會做一些事情，以防這種情況發生，這可能會對我們有幫助。但我們通常不會大規模地進行預購業務。所以這實際上不是我們動議的一部分。

Good. And I'm correct about the customers absolutely not doing that either?

好的。我說得對，顧客也絕對不會這麼做，對吧？

That's right.

這是正確的。

All right. And then second question, just on the outlook for M&A, just expectations for 2025, is that a lever that Grainger would be interested in polling? And broadly for the distribution sector, there's been some announcements of some sizable deals.

好的。然後第二個問題，僅就併購前景而言，僅對 2025 年的預期，這是 Grainger 感興趣的民調指標嗎？整體而言，就分銷領域而言，已經有一些大型交易的公告。

Do you think this is a sea change? You still have a highly, highly fragmented market, and outgrowth organically has still been the primary strategy. But is there anything in the way of M&A that might accelerate that?

您認為這是一個翻天覆地的改變嗎？您的市場仍然高度分散，有機成長仍然是主要策略。但是否存在什麼可以加速這一進程的併購方式呢？

Our strategy doesn't change. We think we're primarily an organic growth company. We do look at any opportunities that come up. There are certain subsets of distribution for which I think M&A probably makes more sense, for sure. And they don't necessarily apply to us. But the short answer is we are always looking, but we expect organic growth to be our primary driver.

我們的策略沒有改變。我們認為我們主要是一家有機成長的公司。我們確實會關注出現的任何機會。我認為，對於某些分銷子集而言，併購可能更有意義，這是肯定的。但它們並不一定適用於我們。簡而言之，我們一直在尋找，但我們預計有機成長將成為我們的主要動力。

Thank you. And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to D.G. Macpherson for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節現已結束。我現在將電話轉回 D.G。麥克弗森致最後致詞。

First of all, thanks for joining. I continue to be very happy with our progress. I think as we talked about here, our earnings algorithm doesn't change. We continue to focus on providing the best customer experience, on having an engaged team, and I'm making sure we deliver our financial commitments. And we feel very good about our going in position into 2025 no matter what the market.

首先，感謝您的加入。我對我們的進展一直感到非常高興。我認為正如我們在這裡討論的那樣，我們的收入演算法不會改變。我們將繼續致力於提供最好的客戶體驗，擁有一支敬業的團隊，並確保我們履行財務承諾。無論市場如何，我們對於自己在 2025 年的發展前景感到非常樂觀。

And as we discussed, if obviously, the market's better than we project, we will do better. That's the way this works. But right now, we think we have all the tools in place to have a really good year. So thanks for joining us today.

正如我們所討論的，如果市場顯然比我們預期的要好，我們就會做得更好。這就是它的工作方式。但現在，我們認為我們已經具備了迎接美好一年的所有條件。感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you. And with that, we conclude today's call. All parties may disconnect. Have a good day

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。各方均可斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天