使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to Guidewire's Second Quarter Fiscal 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.
問候。歡迎參加 Guidewire 2023 財年第二季度財務業績電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在錄製此會議。
At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Alex Hughes, Vice President, Investor Relations. Alex, you may now begin.
此時,我將把會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Alex Hughes。亞歷克斯,你現在可以開始了。
Alex Hughes - VP of IR
Alex Hughes - VP of IR
Thanks, Rob. I'm Alex Hughes, Vice President of Investor Relations. And with me today is Mike Rosenbaum, Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Cooper, Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝,羅布。我是投資者關係副總裁 Alex Hughes。今天和我在一起的是首席執行官邁克·羅森鮑姆 (Mike Rosenbaum);和首席財務官 Jeff Cooper。
A complete disclosure of our results can be found in our press release issued today as well as in our related Form 8-K furnished to the SEC, both of which are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available following the conclusion of this call.
我們今天發布的新聞稿以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的相關 8-K 表格中可以找到我們結果的完整披露,兩者都可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。今天的通話正在錄製中,通話結束後將提供重播。
Statements made on this call include forward-looking ones regarding our financial results, products, customer demand, operations, the impact of local, national and geopolitical events on our business and other matters. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions and are based on management's current expectations as of today and should not be relied upon as representing our views of any subsequent date.
在此次電話會議上發表的聲明包括關於我們的財務業績、產品、客戶需求、運營、地方、國家和地緣政治事件對我們業務的影響以及其他事項的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述受風險、不確定性和假設的影響,並且基於管理層截至今天的當前預期,不應被視為代表我們對任何後續日期的看法。
Please refer to the press release and risk factors and documents we file with the SEC, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed to be -- and to be filed with the SEC for information on the risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in such statements.
請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的新聞稿和風險因素及文件,包括我們最近的 10-K 表格年度報告和我們即將提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-Q 表格季度報告有關可能導致實際結果與此類聲明中規定的結果存在重大差異的風險、不確定性和假設的信息。
We also will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures to provide additional information to investors. All commentary on margins, profitability and expenses are on a non-GAAP basis, unless stated otherwise. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is provided in our press release. Reconciliations and additional data are also posted in the supplemental on our IR website.
我們還將參考某些非 GAAP 財務措施,以向投資者提供更多信息。除非另有說明,否則所有關於利潤率、盈利能力和費用的評論均基於非公認會計原則。我們的新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 措施與 GAAP 措施的對賬。我們的 IR 網站的補充資料中還發布了對賬和其他數據。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.
有了這個,我會把電話轉給邁克。
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Thank you, Alex. Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today. I'm pleased to share the results of what was another great quarter for Guidewire. We continued to steadily execute and improve in all key of our business, and second quarter results were a good demonstration of this. We combined strong sales execution, great cloud adoption and improved cost discipline to deliver better-than-expected results. We exceeded our targets for ARR, subscription and support gross margin, operating margin, and our performance this quarter gives us a strong foundation to build on for the remainder of the fiscal year.
謝謝你,亞歷克斯。下午好,感謝您今天加入我們。我很高興與大家分享 Guidewire 又一個出色季度的成果。我們繼續穩步執行和改進所有關鍵業務,第二季度的業績很好地證明了這一點。我們將強大的銷售執行力、出色的雲採用率和改進的成本控制相結合,交付了好於預期的結果。我們超出了 ARR、訂閱和支持毛利率、營業利潤率的目標,我們本季度的業績為我們在本財年剩餘時間的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。
As we continue to lead an industry transition to modern cloud-based core systems, we enable our P&C insurance customers to better engage with their customers, innovate with new products, channels and agile approaches to risk management and structurally grow more efficiently than is possible with legacy core systems. We continue to make steady progress in the key pillars of our strategy, cloud adoption, cloud deployment, cloud efficiency and growing our ecosystem of partners that amplify everything we do ourselves.
隨著我們繼續引領行業向現代基於雲的核心系統過渡,我們使我們的 P&C 保險客戶能夠更好地與他們的客戶互動,通過新產品、渠道和敏捷的風險管理方法進行創新,並在結構上更有效地增長遺留核心系統。我們繼續在我們戰略的關鍵支柱、雲採用、雲部署、雲效率和發展我們的合作夥伴生態系統方面取得穩步進展,從而擴大我們自己所做的一切。
On the call today, I'll talk about our quarterly progress in each of these areas. Starting with cloud adoption. Q2 sales activity was strong with 8 cloud deals in total, including 2 new customer wins, 3 migrations and 3 InsuranceSuite expansions at existing customers. In the Americas, we had 2 new customer wins, including one for InsuranceSuite with a $2 billion DWP insurer and another for ClaimCenter with a $1.4 billion DWP insurer. We also closed 2 cloud migration deals, including 1 for ClaimCenter with a global Tier 1 insurer and another for InsuranceSuite with a long-time Guidewire regional customer. In addition, we continued to work with one of the largest insurers in the world to steadily expand on Guidewire Cloud with a new greenfield initiative.
在今天的電話會議上,我將討論我們在每個領域的季度進展。從採用雲開始。第二季度銷售活動強勁,共有 8 項云交易,包括 2 項新客戶贏得、3 項遷移和 3 項現有客戶的 InsuranceSuite 擴展。在美洲,我們贏得了 2 個新客戶,其中一個是 InsuranceSuite 與 20 億美元的 DWP 保險公司,另一個是 ClaimCenter 與 14 億美元的 DWP 保險公司。我們還完成了 2 項云遷移交易,其中一項是針對 ClaimCenter 與一家全球一級保險公司的交易,另一項是針對 InsuranceSuite 與一家長期 Guidewire 區域客戶的交易。此外,我們繼續與世界上最大的保險公司之一合作,通過新的綠地計劃穩步擴展 Guidewire Cloud。
In EMEA, we had 3 cloud wins, which is a strong quarter for us in this region. Two of these deals were with one of the largest Finnish insurers who will be migrating an on-prem implementation of InsuranceSuite to Guidewire Cloud Platform while also expanding InsuranceSuite to a new line of business. In addition, a major U.K.-based insurer will adopt BillingCenter on Guidewire Cloud Platform after adopting PolicyCenter on the platform last year. All of these transactions represent the growing confidence in our platform and cloud capabilities and the unique benefits we can provide in cloud-based modern core systems.
在歐洲、中東和非洲,我們贏得了 3 個雲服務,這對我們在該地區來說是一個強勁的季度。其中兩筆交易是與芬蘭最大的保險公司之一達成的,他們將把 InsuranceSuite 的本地實施遷移到 Guidewire 雲平台,同時還將 InsuranceSuite 擴展到新的業務線。此外,繼去年在該平台上採用 PolicyCenter 之後,英國一家大型保險公司將在 Guidewire 雲平台上採用 BillingCenter。所有這些交易都代表了人們對我們的平台和雲功能的信心不斷增強,以及我們可以在基於雲的現代核心系統中提供的獨特優勢。
Turning to cloud deployments. We continue to build momentum with 9 more go-lives on the Guidewire Cloud Platform in the recent quarter. The breadth and pace of deployments in Q2 was exciting and has kept us all very busy. The go-live activity this quarter was international with 3 deployments in the United States, 3 in EMEA, 3 in Canada, and it was upmarket with 1 Tier 1 and 5 Tier 2 deployments. In the quarter, we saw a Tier 1 insurer and a top 20 P&C insurer in the United States deploy ClaimCenter on Guidewire Cloud Platform, illustrating GWCP's ability to scale with the largest insurers. At the same time, a start-up insurer was able to deploy PolicyCenter and BillingCenter on Guidewire Cloud Platform in just a few months, demonstrating that GWCP can be deployed quickly.
轉向雲部署。最近一個季度,我們在 Guidewire 雲平台上又上線了 9 個,繼續保持勢頭。第二季度部署的廣度和速度令人興奮,讓我們所有人都非常忙碌。本季度的上線活動是國際性的,在美國有 3 個部署,在 EMEA 有 3 個,在加拿大有 3 個,並且是高端市場,有 1 個一級部署和 5 個二級部署。在本季度,我們看到美國的一家一級保險公司和一家排名前 20 的財產保險公司在 Guidewire 雲平台上部署了 ClaimCenter,這說明了 GWCP 與最大的保險公司進行擴展的能力。同時,一家初創保險公司在短短幾個月內就在Guidewire雲平台上部署了PolicyCenter和BillingCenter,證明了GWCP可以快速部署。
I was also pleased to see insurers successfully modernize and transform their core systems to GWCP. This included AMA Insurance Company, one of Canada's largest motor insurers deploying InsuranceSuite on GWCP to deliver greater efficiency and better experience for its customers and its agent network. We also saw a major U.K. insurer with over a 300-year history deployed ClaimCenter on Guidewire Cloud Platform to begin its transformation journey. To date, 31 customers have gone live on Guidewire's Cloud Platform. This total includes migrations, modernizations and greenfield deployments, and I believe this speaks to the capability, flexibility and agility of our platform. We will obviously continue to increase this total each quarter. And as we do, we'll continue to improve our operating capabilities and efficiency with each new deployment and each new release.
我也很高興看到保險公司成功地實現了現代化並將其核心系統轉變為 GWCP。這包括加拿大最大的汽車保險公司之一 AMA Insurance Company 在 GWCP 上部署 InsuranceSuite 以為其客戶及其代理網絡提供更高的效率和更好的體驗。我們還看到一家擁有 300 多年曆史的英國大型保險公司在 Guidewire 雲平台上部署了理賠中心,開始了轉型之旅。迄今為止,已有 31 位客戶在 Guidewire 的雲平台上線。這一總數包括遷移、現代化和綠地部署,我相信這說明了我們平台的能力、靈活性和敏捷性。我們顯然每個季度都會繼續增加這個總數。正如我們所做的那樣,我們將繼續通過每個新部署和每個新版本來提高我們的運營能力和效率。
We also still have a lot to learn. Every time we complete a go-live, we learn something. We identify ways we can improve both for our internal operating efficiency, but more critically, we learn how to make these experiences and projects better for our customers. We remain determined to relentlessly drive further improvement in our cloud operations, reliability performance and security. So while we are thrilled to now have 31 production customers and proud of the work we have done to achieve this, we also recognize that eventually, and I might say inevitably, this number will be in the hundreds or maybe even the thousands. So the work we are doing right now to improve the efficiency of our operation in the future is critical to our long-term success and a key component of our intention to be a source of durable long-term profitable growth.
我們還有很多東西要學。每次我們完成上線,我們都會學到一些東西。我們確定了可以提高內部運營效率的方法,但更重要的是,我們學習如何讓這些體驗和項目更好地為我們的客戶服務。我們仍然決心不懈地推動我們的雲運營、可靠性和安全性的進一步改進。因此,雖然我們很高興現在擁有 31 個生產客戶,並為我們為實現這一目標所做的工作感到自豪,但我們也認識到,最終,我可能不可避免地會說,這個數字將達到數百甚至數千。因此,我們現在為提高未來運營效率所做的工作對我們的長期成功至關重要,也是我們成為持久的長期盈利增長來源的意圖的關鍵組成部分。
One of the assumptions we made coming into this year was that we could hold our cloud operations headcount flat while continuing to scale cloud adoption. This was based on a significant investment we have made and continue to make in our cloud platform. In the past 6 months, we have nearly doubled the number of production customers on Guidewire Cloud and have been able to effectively control the infrastructure and headcount expenses required to support that growth. The significantly improved subscription and support gross margins we saw this quarter were driven by these decisions and the determined execution of our teams. We will continue to learn and improve as we grow and continue to leverage the experience and feedback we gain from each project go-live so that we can confidently position Guidewire Cloud for every relevant insurer everywhere in the world.
我們今年做出的假設之一是,我們可以在繼續擴大雲採用規模的同時保持雲運營人員數量不變。這是基於我們已經並將繼續對我們的雲平台進行的重大投資。在過去的 6 個月裡,我們在 Guidewire Cloud 上的生產客戶數量幾乎翻了一番,並且能夠有效地控制支持這一增長所需的基礎設施和人員開支。我們在本季度看到的訂閱和支持毛利率的顯著提高是由這些決定和我們團隊堅定的執行力推動的。隨著我們的成長,我們將繼續學習和改進,並繼續利用我們從每個項目上線中獲得的經驗和反饋,以便我們可以自信地為世界各地的每一家相關保險公司定位 Guidewire Cloud。
Turning to Guidewire's partner ecosystem. We continue to build momentum with both our SI partners and our solution partners. The number of Guidewire consultants and system integrators grew to over 21,000 at the end of Q2, up by 27% year-over-year. The number of cloud-certified consultants increased 82% year-over-year, passing 6,600 at the end of Q2. This gives our customers a valuable bench of cloud-trained professionals to draw on as they start down the path of modernization or embark on cloud upgrades. The importance of this community is illustrated by the fact that SIs have participated in over 70% of our cloud projects to date, and of these, 60% have been SI-led.
轉向 Guidewire 的合作夥伴生態系統。我們繼續與我們的 SI 合作夥伴和我們的解決方案合作夥伴建立勢頭。 Guidewire 顧問和系統集成商的數量在第二季度末增長到超過 21,000 家,同比增長 27%。雲認證顧問的數量同比增長 82%,在第二季度末超過 6,600 人。這為我們的客戶提供了寶貴的受過雲培訓的專業人員,以便他們在開始現代化之路或著手進行雲升級時可以藉鑑。到目前為止,SI 已經參與了我們超過 70% 的雲項目,其中 60% 是由 SI 領導的,這一事實說明了這個社區的重要性。
Now before I hand it over to Jeff, let me just comment on last week's news regarding our headquarters. Around 4 years ago, we moved into a beautiful new building in San Mateo, California with approximately 180,000 square feet of space. But shortly after this move, the COVID pandemic changed the world. Post-COVID, our teams have become more distributed, and our hiring strategy has become more global. This move allows us to realize significant savings while rightsizing and aligning our office footprint to the needs of a more distributed, flexible and global workforce. Jeff will comment in more detail about the financial impact of this move, but basically, it will save us $10 million to $12 million a year starting next fiscal year. I want to congratulate our real estate team on executing this transaction in a very challenging environment for these sorts of activities, and I look forward to discussing this move further with Guidewire colleagues in the coming weeks.
現在,在我將其交給 Jeff 之前,讓我先評論一下上週關於我們總部的新聞。大約 4 年前,我們搬進了位於加利福尼亞州聖馬特奧的一棟漂亮的新建築,建築面積約為 180,000 平方英尺。但此舉後不久,COVID 大流行改變了世界。後 COVID,我們的團隊變得更加分散,我們的招聘策略也變得更加全球化。這一舉措使我們能夠實現顯著的節省,同時調整和調整我們的辦公室佔地面積,以滿足更加分散、靈活和全球化的員工隊伍的需求。傑夫將更詳細地評論此舉的財務影響,但基本上,從下一個財政年度開始,它每年將節省 1000 萬至 1200 萬美元。我要祝賀我們的房地產團隊在對此類活動極具挑戰性的環境中執行此交易,我期待在未來幾週內與 Guidewire 同事進一步討論此舉。
With that, I'll turn it over to Jeff.
有了這個,我會把它交給傑夫。
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Thanks, Mike. We are thrilled with our second quarter cloud momentum and improved operational efficiency and cost discipline, all of which resulted in a great outcome in Q2 and a strong foundation to build upon as we execute toward our fiscal '23 and longer-term financial targets.
謝謝,邁克。我們對第二季度的雲勢頭以及運營效率和成本紀律的提高感到興奮,所有這些都在第二季度取得了巨大的成果,並為我們實現 23 財年和長期財務目標奠定了堅實的基礎。
Second quarter ARR ended at $707 million ahead of our expectations. This represents 17% year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis. The first half of fiscal '23 benefited from minimal ARR attrition and healthy growth in ARR coming from deals sold in prior years with escalating fees, which we refer to as a ramp deal.
第二季度 ARR 超出我們的預期,達到 7.07 億美元。按固定匯率計算,這意味著同比增長 17%。 23 財年上半年受益於 ARR 的最小損耗和 ARR 的健康增長,這些增長來自前幾年以不斷上漲的費用出售的交易,我們稱之為斜坡交易。
Total revenue was $232.6 million, above the high end of our outlook. Cloud strength continues to be visible within subscription revenue, which grew 37% year-over-year to $86 million. Subscription and support revenue was $105.8 million, up 25% year-over-year. License revenue was $73 million, up 5% year-over-year. Services revenue was $53.7 million, up 6% year-over-year.
總收入為 2.326 億美元,高於我們預期的上限。訂閱收入繼續體現雲的優勢,訂閱收入同比增長 37% 至 8600 萬美元。訂閱和支持收入為 1.058 億美元,同比增長 25%。許可收入為 7300 萬美元,同比增長 5%。服務收入為 5370 萬美元,同比增長 6%。
Turning to profitability for the second quarter, which we will discuss on a non-GAAP basis. Gross profit was $131.9 million. Overall gross margin was 57%. Subscription and support gross margin was also 57% compared to 49% a year ago. This was significantly ahead of our expectations. Strong subscription revenue growth, combined with our focus on cloud infrastructure efficiency, is having a positive impact. We are also recognizing benefits associated with our new agreement with our cloud provider, including some onetime savings that positively impacted Q2. We are expecting some higher costs in the back half of the year related to cloud customer upgrades to the latest release and healthy go-live activity.
轉向第二季度的盈利能力,我們將在非 GAAP 基礎上進行討論。毛利潤為 1.319 億美元。整體毛利率為57%。訂閱和支持毛利率也為 57%,而一年前為 49%。這大大超出了我們的預期。強勁的訂閱收入增長,加上我們對雲基礎架構效率的關注,正在產生積極影響。我們還認識到與我們與雲提供商的新協議相關的好處,包括對第二季度產生積極影響的一次性節省。我們預計今年下半年與雲客戶升級到最新版本和健康的上線活動相關的成本會更高。
Collectively, we were pleased with our margins in the quarter and with how subscription and support margins are tracking for the year. And services gross margins in Q2 was just below breakeven compared to positive 8% a year ago. We continue to make steady progress working through complex early cloud programs and other programs that have been leveraging subcontractors at higher-than-normal levels, and we still expect services to return to positive margin in the second half of the fiscal year.
總的來說,我們對本季度的利潤率以及今年訂閱和支持利潤率的跟踪情況感到滿意。與一年前的正 8% 相比,第二季度的服務毛利率略低於盈虧平衡點。我們繼續通過複雜的早期雲計劃和其他以高於正常水平利用分包商的計劃取得穩步進展,我們仍然預計服務將在本財年下半年恢復正利潤率。
Operating income was $15.1 million. This was significantly higher than our expectations due to better-than-expected subscription and support gross profit and lower-than-expected operating costs. Overall stock-based compensation was $36.2 million. SBC expense was down 4% year-over-year in Q2 and up 2% year-over-year in the first half of 2023. We expect muted growth in SBC in the back half of this year. This is consistent with our slowdown in hiring as we scale our business without adding additional headcount.
營業收入為 1510 萬美元。由於好於預期的訂閱和支持毛利潤以及低於預期的運營成本,這大大高於我們的預期。基於股票的整體薪酬為 3620 萬美元。 SBC 費用在第二季度同比下降 4%,在 2023 年上半年同比增長 2%。我們預計今年下半年 SBC 的增長將放緩。這與我們在不增加額外員工的情況下擴大業務規模時招聘放緩的情況一致。
We ended the quarter with $870 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments. In Q1, we announced a $400 million share repurchase program. As part of that program, we executed $200 million accelerated share repurchase program, which was finalized in February 2023 with an aggregate share delivery of 3.2 million shares at an average price of $61.93 per share. The initial tranche of 2.6 million shares were delivered in Q1, and the remaining approximately 600,000 shares were delivered in February, which is in our Q3.
本季度末,我們擁有 8.7 億美元的現金、現金等價物和投資。第一季度,我們宣布了一項 4 億美元的股票回購計劃。作為該計劃的一部分,我們執行了 2 億美元的加速股票回購計劃,該計劃於 2023 年 2 月完成,總計交付 320 萬股股票,平均價格為每股 61.93 美元。首批 260 萬股在第一季度交付,其餘約 600,000 股在 2 月份交付,也就是我們的第三季度。
Turning to our outlook for fiscal year 2023. We are maintaining our ARR outlook of $745 million to $760 million. We are pleased with our progress in the first half and feel confident in our pipeline for the back half of the year, but feel it is prudent to maintain our outlook at this point in the fiscal year. As I previously noted, the first half benefited from strong ARR coming from ramp deals and very low ARR attrition. The second half of this year has more difficult year-over-year compares in these 2 areas, which was already embedded into our guidance.
轉向我們對 2023 財年的展望。我們維持 7.45 億美元至 7.6 億美元的 ARR 展望。我們對上半年的進展感到滿意,並對下半年的計劃充滿信心,但認為在本財年的這個時候維持我們的前景是謹慎的。正如我之前指出的那樣,上半年受益於坡道交易帶來的強勁 ARR 和非常低的 ARR 損耗。今年下半年在這兩個領域的同比比較困難,這已經納入我們的指導中。
We are excited by the pace of new modernization activity this year, whereas in the early part of the cloud transition, much of the bookings activity was focused on customer cloud migrations. This momentum is exciting for 2 reasons. One, it indicates increasing confidence in the maturity of our cloud platform; and two, it is demonstrating our ability to compete and win at a high level since most of these deals are competitive.
我們對今年新的現代化活動的步伐感到興奮,而在雲轉型的早期,大部分預訂活動都集中在客戶雲遷移上。這種勢頭令人興奮有兩個原因。一是表明對我們雲平台成熟度的信心增強;第二,它展示了我們在高水平上競爭和取勝的能力,因為這些交易中的大多數都具有競爭力。
We are raising our outlook for total revenue, which we now expect to be between $894 million and $904 million, representing 11% growth at the midpoint. The primary change is we now expect subscription revenue to be $348 million, an upward adjustment of $6 million and representing 34% year-over-year growth. This adjustment was driven by better deal linearity and some meaningful cloud contract extensions on existing customers.
我們正在提高對總收入的預期,我們現在預計總收入在 8.94 億美元至 9.04 億美元之間,中點增長 11%。主要變化是我們現在預計訂閱收入為 3.48 億美元,上調 600 萬美元,同比增長 34%。這一調整是由更好的交易線性和對現有客戶的一些有意義的雲合同擴展推動的。
Turning to margins and profitability, which we will discuss on a non-GAAP basis. We expect subscription and support gross margins to be between 51% and 52% for the year, an increase of 2 to 3 percentage points when compared to our outlook last quarter and 5 to 6 percentage points from the Q4 call. This reflect -- this adjustment reflects increasing confidence in our margin trajectory as we execute towards our mid- and longer-term margin targets.
轉向利潤率和盈利能力,我們將在非 GAAP 基礎上進行討論。我們預計全年訂閱和支持毛利率將在 51% 至 52% 之間,與我們上季度的預期相比增加 2 至 3 個百分點,與第四季度電話會議相比增加 5 至 6 個百分點。這反映了——這一調整反映了在我們執行中長期利潤率目標時對我們的利潤率軌蹟的信心增強。
We continue to expect services margins in the mid-single digits for the year with significantly better services margins in the second half of the year. This improvement assumes the completion of ongoing arrangements with investments from Guidewire. The ramp of new services hires replacing subcontractors and the redeployment of some Guidewire services resources from nonbillable to billable roles.
我們繼續預計今年的服務利潤率將保持在中等個位數,下半年服務利潤率將顯著提高。這種改進假設完成了 Guidewire 投資的持續安排。新服務的增加需要更換分包商,並將一些 Guidewire 服務資源從不可計費的角色重新部署到可計費的角色。
As a result, we now expect overall gross margin of approximately 53% for the year. With respect to operating income, we expect an operating loss of between $17 million and $7 million for the fiscal year. We expect stock-based compensation to be approximately $139 million, representing 1% growth year-over-year. Given this and the impact of the accelerated share repurchase program, we expect a decline in our fully diluted shares outstanding this fiscal year.
因此,我們現在預計今年的整體毛利率約為 53%。關於營業收入,我們預計本財年的營業虧損將在 1700 萬美元至 700 萬美元之間。我們預計基於股票的薪酬約為 1.39 億美元,同比增長 1%。鑑於此以及加速股票回購計劃的影響,我們預計本財年我們已完全稀釋的已發行股票將減少。
There is no change to our cash flow from operations expectations. In general, the positive margin progression gives us confidence in our ability to scale cash flow, but the timing of collections can cause cash flow to fluctuate in a given quarter or year given how much of our annual collections are due at the end of our fiscal year.
我們的運營預期現金流量沒有變化。總的來說,正利潤率增長讓我們對我們擴大現金流量的能力充滿信心,但收款時間可能會導致現金流量在給定季度或年度內波動,因為我們的年度收款有多少是在我們的財政年度末到期的年。
Turning to our outlook for Q3. We expect ARR to finish between $715 million and $720 million, which represents 16% growth at the midpoint on a constant currency basis. We expect total revenue between $211 million and $216 million. We expect subscription revenue of approximately $88.5 million. Subscription and support revenue of approximately $107 million and services revenue of approximately $56 million. We expect subscription and support margins of approximately 50%, and we expect services margins of approximately 10%, and overall gross margin of between 50% and 51%. We expect a non-GAAP operating loss of between $20 million and $16 million in Q3.
轉向我們對第三季度的展望。我們預計 ARR 將在 7.15 億美元至 7.2 億美元之間完成,按固定匯率計算,中點增長率為 16%。我們預計總收入在 2.11 億美元至 2.16 億美元之間。我們預計訂閱收入約為 8850 萬美元。訂閱和支持收入約為 1.07 億美元,服務收入約為 5600 萬美元。我們預計訂閱和支持利潤率約為 50%,我們預計服務利潤率約為 10%,整體毛利率在 50% 至 51% 之間。我們預計第三季度的非 GAAP 運營虧損將在 2000 萬至 1600 萬美元之間。
Finally, as Mike noted, we have entered into an arrangement to complete an office swap with another company in San Mateo. Our new office space is just a couple of blocks from our current headquarters, and it is less than half the total square footage. As part of this arrangement, we expect to take a write-off of the leasehold improvements, the right-of-use asset and lease liability in the existing location, and we expect the aggregate amount to be between an $8 million to $9 million loss, and this charge will hit G&A. This will impact our Q3 GAAP financial results, but given the onetime nature of this write-down, we will exclude this from our non-GAAP financials, and therefore, has no impact on the outlook provided above. We also have approximately $1.5 million in adviser and moving fees in the back half of the fiscal year, which is included in our outlook for the year. Looking ahead to fiscal 2024 and beyond, we expect to save approximately $10 million to $12 million per year as a result of this move.
最後,正如 Mike 指出的那樣,我們已經與聖馬特奧的另一家公司達成一項安排,以完成辦公室交換。我們的新辦公空間距離我們現在的總部只有幾個街區,不到總面積的一半。作為此安排的一部分,我們預計將註銷現有地點的租賃資產改良、使用權資產和租賃負債,我們預計損失總額將在 800 萬至 900 萬美元之間,這筆費用將影響 G&A。這將影響我們第三季度的 GAAP 財務業績,但鑑於此次減記的一次性性質,我們會將其排除在我們的非 GAAP 財務之外,因此不會對上述展望產生影響。我們在本財年下半年還有大約 150 萬美元的顧問費和搬家費,這包括在我們今年的展望中。展望 2024 財年及以後,我們預計此舉每年可節省約 1000 萬至 1200 萬美元。
With that, operator, you can now open the call to questions.
有了它,接線員,您現在可以打開問題電話。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Dylan Becker with William Blair.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Dylan Becker 和 William Blair 的台詞。
Dylan Tyler Becker - Research Analyst
Dylan Tyler Becker - Research Analyst
Nice job here in the quarter. Maybe starting with Jeff this time on the margin front. I understand there's maybe some onetime dynamics there as you called out, but I wanted to dig into the reallocation from customer-specific to kind of platform-specific investments. How big of a portion is that headcount and the margin delta, if I recall correctly? And how much does that capacity shift from that small select number of projects contribute to upside maybe in the quarter, but also give you kind of confidence in that long-term margin outlook you guys have called out?
本季度在這里幹得不錯。也許這次從傑夫開始。我知道你所說的可能有一些一次性的動態,但我想深入研究從特定於客戶的投資到特定於平台的投資的重新分配。如果我沒記錯的話,該員工人數和利潤增量有多大?從少數選定項目中轉移的產能有多少可能在本季度有助於上行,但也讓你們對你們所說的長期利潤率前景充滿信心?
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Yes. I mean look, I think in general, we are seeing -- as we realize benefits of the investments we've made in the platform to be run and executed much more efficiently, that will afford us the ability over time to repurpose some headcount. And we talked a bit about this in Q1, where we had folks that were previously in our R&D organization, our product development organization that were, for a period of time, doing customer-specific work and so ended up in our cost of goods sold of our subscription product. And then over time, those headcount have now moved back into the product organization as they are kind of building product sets for the totality of our customers rather than doing customer-specific work in almost like a support-like function. So we did see that in Q1.
是的。我的意思是看,我認為總的來說,我們正在看到——當我們意識到我們在平台上進行的投資所帶來的好處,可以更有效地運行和執行,這將使我們能夠隨著時間的推移重新調整一些員工人數。我們在第一季度談到了這一點,我們有一些人以前在我們的研發組織,我們的產品開發組織,他們在一段時間內從事針對客戶的工作,因此最終導致我們的銷售成本我們的訂閱產品。然後隨著時間的推移,這些員工現在又回到了產品組織,因為他們正在為我們的整體客戶構建產品集,而不是像支持類功能一樣做針對客戶的特定工作。所以我們確實在第一季度看到了這一點。
There was no movements in Q2 that drove the number. Q2 was healthy momentum in terms of overall platform efficiency. There was a little bit more update work that we had modeled into our number that is now going to happen in the back half of the year. And so that was a little bit of the explanation for the outsized beat vis-à-vis our expectations. But in general, this is just us kind of managing steady progression in terms of how we think about our cost structure to support our cloud business.
第二季度沒有推動這一數字的變動。就整體平台效率而言,第二季度是健康的勢頭。我們已經將更多的更新工作模擬到我們的數字中,現在將在今年下半年進行。因此,這在一定程度上解釋了超出我們預期的超大節拍。但總的來說,這只是我們在考慮支持我們的雲業務的成本結構方面的穩步進展。
Dylan Tyler Becker - Research Analyst
Dylan Tyler Becker - Research Analyst
Got it. Got it. Super encouraging there. Maybe switching over to Mike. As you talk to customers, again, a lot of emphasis on kind of core back-office efficiency and what that improved from an underwriting standpoint. I guess how are carriers thinking about utilizing kind of some of the integrated data as well to improve their own marketing and distribution efficiency? I would assume the challenge is in attracting, but maybe the bigger challenge is in retaining those customers that fits kind of that preferred risk profile. I guess how is that discussion evolving from a core adoption standpoint?
知道了。知道了。超級鼓舞人心。也許切換到邁克。當您與客戶交談時,再次強調核心後台效率以及從承保角度改進的內容。我想運營商是如何考慮利用一些集成數據來提高自己的營銷和分銷效率的?我認為挑戰在於吸引,但也許更大的挑戰在於留住那些符合首選風險狀況的客戶。我想從核心採用的角度來看,這種討論是如何演變的?
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Great question. I think the component of the platform and on both PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter, BillingCenter side, but I'd say from a new business perspective, it's mostly ClaimCenter quoting. The digital capabilities around that gives them flexibility and agility to roll out new channels, new mechanisms to quote and price products, new places to put those products, better and more effective mechanisms for staying connected with agents and agencies and MGAs are very, very important to a significant number of our customers.
很好的問題。我認為平台的組件以及 PolicyCenter、ClaimCenter、BillingCenter 方面,但我想從新的業務角度來看,它主要是 ClaimCenter 報價。周圍的數字能力使他們能夠靈活和敏捷地推出新渠道、新的產品報價和定價機制、放置這些產品的新地方以及與代理商和代理機構以及 MGA 保持聯繫的更好和更有效的機制,這些都非常非常重要給我們的大量客戶。
And so we support both companies that go direct but also that go through distribution channels. And even you might think if you're going through a distribution channel, the digital component doesn't quite matter as much. It might be even -- it might matter even more because that sort of digital user experience that is really expected nowadays for really dealing with any company or any product becomes more and more important over time.
因此,我們既支持直營公司,也支持通過分銷渠道的公司。甚至您可能會認為,如果您正在通過分銷渠道,那麼數字組件就沒有那麼重要了。它甚至可能 - 它可能更重要,因為隨著時間的推移,如今真正期望真正與任何公司或任何產品打交道的那種數字用戶體驗變得越來越重要。
And so it's the flexibility around this that we're delivering with Guidewire, with GWCP and with some really exciting improvements that we have made on the digital front with our digital platform that they are very excited about. And I just think fundamentally, what we're trying to do for this industry is give them a platform that they can innovate with, that they can iterate on.
因此,我們通過 Guidewire、GWCP 以及我們在數字平台上對數字平台所做的一些真正令人興奮的改進提供了靈活性,他們對此感到非常興奮。我只是認為,從根本上說,我們正在努力為這個行業做的是為他們提供一個可以進行創新和迭代的平台。
And so that if we can sort of make the projects easier for them to execute on smaller, faster, they're going to be able to -- in the same way any software company sort of iterates their way to success, you're going to be able to see sort of significant improvements in that marketing and distribution channel for both direct and indirect customers. So great question.
因此,如果我們可以讓項目更容易在更小、更快的情況下執行,他們將能夠——就像任何軟件公司都以同樣的方式迭代他們的成功之路,你會能夠看到針對直接和間接客戶的營銷和分銷渠道的重大改進。這麼好的問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Kevin Kumar with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的凱文庫馬爾。
Kevin Kumar - Associate
Kevin Kumar - Associate
Mike, can you give us an update on just the overall demand environment? Any changes in terms of carriers' appetite for larger upfront deals? And then any comments on kind of geographic differences? It feels like Europe was performing pretty nicely this quarter.
邁克,你能給我們介紹一下整體需求環境的最新情況嗎?承運人對更大規模的前期交易的興趣有何變化?然後對地理差異有何評論?感覺歐洲本季度表現相當不錯。
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Yes, good question. It's something we continue to pay close attention to given sort of overall sort of constant news about what's going on in the macro environment. I would say generally, we are seeing a continuation of what we've reported over the past few quarters in that the insurance industry is not immune, but is not specifically impinged, I'd say, by this.
是的,好問題。我們將繼續密切關注有關宏觀環境中正在發生的事情的總體持續新聞。我想說的是,總體而言,我們看到我們在過去幾個季度報告的情況繼續存在,即保險業不能倖免,但我想說,並沒有受到具體影響。
There are certainly impacts of inflation that a lot of carriers are feeling and working through. But in general, like I've said a number of times, I think that the time period around which these carriers are thinking about these modernizations and their strategy for these core systems is sort of at least multiyear, if not for a decade.
通貨膨脹的影響肯定有很多承運人正在感受到並正在努力克服。但總的來說,就像我多次說過的那樣,我認為這些運營商考慮這些現代化及其對這些核心系統的戰略的時間至少是多年,如果不是十年的話。
And so the decision-making process and the demand environment, it can stay steady throughout this period of uncertainty from a macro perspective. So hopefully, that's clear. Like slow and steady winter race at Guidewire, we think that the demand is still there. Things that we've talked about previously about carriers looking to do sort of more, I don't know, line of business by line of business type of purchasing strategies, we still see that being a popular topic of conversation. I think our cloud approach facilitates that better than what we were offering before.
所以決策過程和需求環境,從宏觀的角度來看,它可以在這個不確定的時期保持穩定。所以希望這很清楚。就像 Guidewire 緩慢而穩定的冬季比賽一樣,我們認為需求仍然存在。我們之前討論過的關於運營商希望做更多事情的事情,我不知道,按業務線類型的採購策略,我們仍然認為這是一個熱門話題。我認為我們的雲方法比我們以前提供的方法更好地促進了這一點。
So I feel pretty well aligned to the overall market and the demand environment. And that's what gives us -- I think that drove a bit of the success in the quarter. As we called out, it was a good quarter for Europe as well as America. We saw go-live activity across the board. So yes, we feel pretty good about demand right now and feel confident through the end of the fiscal year.
所以我覺得與整體市場和需求環境非常吻合。這就是給我們帶來的——我認為這在本季度取得了一些成功。正如我們所說,這對歐洲和美國來說都是一個好季度。我們看到了全面的上線活動。所以是的,我們現在對需求感覺很好,並且對本財年結束充滿信心。
Kevin Kumar - Associate
Kevin Kumar - Associate
That's helpful. And then just a question on InsuranceNow. Maybe just an update on that product and maybe Guidewire's competitive positioning kind of more lower down market and kind of the level of investment you're making in that segment.
這很有幫助。然後只是關於 InsuranceNow 的問題。也許只是該產品的更新,也許 Guidewire 的競爭定位更低端市場以及您在該細分市場的投資水平。
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Yes. So that is a great business for us. We have a bunch of very happy customers in that segment, and we continue to make progress around, what I'd say, slowly migrating that customer base over to GWCP. And we've talked a little bit about that before. So we still like eventually start to see real synergy between the 2 platforms.
是的。所以這對我們來說是一項偉大的業務。我們在該領域擁有一群非常滿意的客戶,並且我們繼續取得進展,我想說的是,慢慢地將客戶群遷移到 GWCP。我們之前已經談過一點。所以我們仍然希望最終開始看到這兩個平台之間真正的協同作用。
I'd like -- the deal volume, the deal velocity there is not sort of multiples every quarter, but we do have a consistent pipeline and we do have a consistent plan. And most importantly, I think we do have a very strong and positive InsuranceNow customer base. And I really like the sort of growing synergy between the InsuranceSuite and InsuranceNow product lines where we're looking at analytics use cases and, like I already mentioned, platform use cases that enable us to get a little bit of lift about the combination of both of those assets inside of Guidewire.
我想——交易量、交易速度不是每個季度的倍數,但我們確實有一個一致的渠道,我們也有一個一致的計劃。最重要的是,我認為我們確實擁有非常強大和積極的 InsuranceNow 客戶群。而且我真的很喜歡 InsuranceSuite 和 InsuranceNow 產品線之間不斷增長的協同作用,我們正在研究分析用例,就像我已經提到的那樣,平台用例使我們能夠對兩者的結合有所提升Guidewire 內部的那些資產。
As you pointed out, it enables us to have a strategic presence down market, which I think is just strategically very important. I don't want to lose sight of that segment of the market. And I think it enables us to do some interesting things a little bit more quickly than we might be able to do with the InsuranceSuite side of our product line. So that's going very well for us. And so when you look at it from a fiscal year perspective, it's easier than looking at it just every single quarter, quarter-over-quarter.
正如您所指出的,它使我們能夠在低端市場擁有戰略地位,我認為這在戰略上非常重要。我不想忽視那部分市場。而且我認為它使我們能夠比我們產品線的 InsuranceSuite 方面更快地做一些有趣的事情。所以這對我們來說非常順利。因此,當你從財政年度的角度來看它時,它比每一個季度、一個季度一個季度地看它要容易得多。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from the line of Rishi Jaluria with RBC.
下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Rishi Jaluria 系列。
Rishi Nitya Jaluria - Analyst
Rishi Nitya Jaluria - Analyst
Mike, I wanted to start with you and maybe understand some of the news around the headquarter swap. I'm glad to see you're kind of embracing the distributed work. I wanted to get a sense for how are you thinking about your own hiring and workforce philosophy in this environment, where you're kind of finding areas that you think are worth investing in, maybe where you're being a little bit more deliberate with headcount additions. That would be helpful. And I've got a quick follow-up for that.
邁克,我想從你開始,或許可以了解有關總部調換的一些消息。我很高興看到您有點接受分佈式工作。我想了解一下您在這種環境下如何看待自己的招聘和勞動力理念,您正在尋找您認為值得投資的領域,也許您在哪些方面更加慎重人數增加。那會很有幫助。我已經對此進行了快速跟進。
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Thanks for the question. So I think first thing you got to recognize, and we're certainly not alone in this, is that when we switch to completely from a work, we recognize that very sign we could be super productive. We could be very effective as a company in that environment. And that immediately causes you to recognize, wait, we can hire people almost no matter where they are in the world. And so that pushed us mentally to think a little bit more globally.
謝謝你的問題。所以我認為你首先要認識到的是,當我們完全從一項工作轉向工作時,我們肯定會意識到我們可能會變得非常有生產力,而且在這方面我們肯定並不孤單。在那種環境下,我們作為一家公司可能會非常有效。這會立即讓您認識到,等等,我們幾乎可以僱用世界上任何地方的人。因此,這促使我們在思想上更加全球化地思考。
Now even before I even joined, Guidewire had super, super presence in Dublin and Kraków, Poland where we are doing real strategic product development work in both of those locations. We obviously had a distributed services organization. But in the past few years, we've added a significant amount of headcount in India. And we are using that as a strategic place to add R&D resources.
現在,甚至在我加入之前,Guidewire 就已經在波蘭的都柏林和克拉科夫擁有非常非常棒的業務,我們在這兩個地方都開展了真正的戰略產品開發工作。我們顯然有一個分佈式服務組織。但在過去幾年中,我們在印度增加了大量員工。我們將其用作增加研發資源的戰略地點。
And we just continue to think that we will be more and more distributed, let's say, as opposed to San Mateo-centric. San Mateo, I think, will always be an important part of the company. But we are seeing just absolutely great work from our international teams and our teams outside of California. And this headquarters move is sort of an acknowledgment of that, is we just had too much space here, and we weren't going to grow into it. And the team was looking around at what they could do, and we found this opportunity and executed on it.
我們只是繼續認為我們會越來越分散,比方說,而不是以聖馬特奧為中心。我認為,San Mateo 將永遠是公司的重要組成部分。但我們看到我們的國際團隊和我們在加利福尼亞以外的團隊所做的絕對出色的工作。這次總部搬遷是對這一點的承認,我們在這裡的空間太大了,我們不打算發展壯大。團隊正在四處尋找他們可以做什麼,我們發現了這個機會並加以執行。
I think it was just really well done. But I would say if you project out over, I don't know, 4, 5 years, the strategy of looking for great people in different locations, regardless of sort of where they are, we're embracing that.
我認為這真的做得很好。但我想說,如果你計劃超過 4、5 年,在不同地點尋找優秀人才的策略,無論他們身在何處,我們都會接受這一點。
And I would put one caveat in it, which is like -- I don't know if you're interested. But we do actually believe that getting people together is also important. And so what we're trying to do is gravitate hiring and people around hubs and creating sort of reasonably complicated schedules around ensuring that people have opportunities to get together, collaborate in person, but also then go back to their home offices and work individually. And we feel pretty good about that sort of balance that you, I guess, call hybrid work these days. And we feel good about it, and I think that confidence is reflected in the real estate strategy.
我會在其中提出一個警告,就像——我不知道你是否感興趣。但我們確實相信,讓人們聚在一起也很重要。因此,我們正在努力做的是吸引圍繞中心的招聘和人員,並圍繞確保人們有機會聚在一起、面對面協作,然後回到他們的家庭辦公室單獨工作,制定一種相當複雜的時間表。我們對這種平衡感到非常滿意,我想,這些天你稱之為混合工作。我們對此感覺良好,我認為這種信心反映在房地產戰略中。
Rishi Nitya Jaluria - Analyst
Rishi Nitya Jaluria - Analyst
All right. Got it. That's really helpful. And then, Jeff, we talked about subscription and support gross margin. I want to ask about services gross margin. So I appreciate you gave us some color and expecting it to return to profitability in the back half of the year. I guess, number one, can you help us understand what are kind of the drivers to get that business on kind of a profitable basis?
好的。知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後,傑夫,我們談到了訂閱和支持毛利率。我想問一下服務毛利率。所以我很感激你給了我們一些顏色,並期待它在今年下半年恢復盈利。我想,第一,你能幫助我們了解什麼樣的驅動因素可以讓這項業務在某種程度上盈利嗎?
And maybe number two, just philosophically, how we should be thinking about longer-term gross margins within services and how you think about balancing treating as a cost center versus maybe wanting to generate at least a decent profit given it is a pretty significant part of your business. And a lot of other vendors in the space maybe do get some level of profit off there. Maybe some color there would be helpful.
也許第二,從哲學上講,我們應該如何考慮服務中的長期毛利率,以及您如何考慮平衡對待作為成本中心與可能希望產生至少可觀的利潤,因為這是相當重要的一部分你的事。該領域的許多其他供應商可能確實從那裡獲得了一定程度的利潤。也許那裡的一些顏色會有所幫助。
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Yes. Yes, sure. Thanks for the question. I think our services organization is a highly strategic asset for Guidewire. And as we were embarking on the initial part of this cloud transition, we knew that there was a lot of uncertainty that our customers had about the path of going to Guidewire Cloud. And we leveraged our services organization in a variety of ways to help our customers get comfortable with this shift. And some of that came through arrangements like fixed bid arrangements. A big area of anxiety is the overall cost of getting from point A to point B. And some of that was around rolling out some discounted rates as a result of we're still learning a little bit on how these will play out and may not be operating at peak efficiency in terms of our billing activity, in terms of getting people from point A to point B.
是的。是的,當然。謝謝你的問題。我認為我們的服務組織是 Guidewire 的一項具有高度戰略意義的資產。當我們著手進行雲過渡的初始部分時,我們知道我們的客戶在轉向 Guidewire Cloud 的道路上存在很多不確定性。我們以各種方式利用我們的服務組織來幫助我們的客戶適應這種轉變。其中一些來自固定投標安排等安排。一個很大的焦慮領域是從 A 點到 B 點的總成本。其中一些是圍繞推出一些折扣率,因為我們仍在了解這些將如何發揮作用,可能不會在我們的計費活動方面以最高效率運營,讓人們從 A 點到 B 點。
And you see that a bit in our margins as we've invested alongside our customers to help them get comfortable to make the shift to the cloud. We've learned a lot over the last 2 or 3 years, and we put in place kind of a multipronged strategy to bring that business back to where it has been historically where we're no longer kind of using that as an asset for us to get business over the line. The product has come a long way and certainly delivers and stands on its own 2 feet in that regard. And so -- and the main area of that -- what we're seeing in the back half of the year is a lot of these fixed bid arrangements that we had worked on and been executing on are coming to completion. We're finishing those projects.
當我們與客戶一起投資以幫助他們適應向雲的轉變時,您會看到我們的利潤率有所提高。在過去的 2 或 3 年裡,我們學到了很多東西,我們制定了一種多管齊下的戰略,將該業務帶回曆史上我們不再將其用作我們的資產的地方使業務越線。該產品已經取得了長足的進步,並且在這方面肯定會交付並自立門戶。因此 - 以及其中的主要領域 - 我們在今年下半年看到的是我們已經制定並正在執行的許多這些固定投標安排即將完成。我們正在完成這些項目。
We are also actively been working on a multi-quarter strategy to bring in entry-level hires, train them up and have them replace fairly expensive subcontractors. And we've been utilizing subcontractors at much higher levels than we had historically. So that's a big part of the strategy, and we're starting to see that part of the strategy be realized.
我們還積極致力於一項多季度戰略,以引進入門級員工,對他們進行培訓,並讓他們取代相當昂貴的分包商。我們一直在比以往更高水平地利用分包商。所以這是戰略的重要組成部分,我們開始看到戰略的這一部分得到實現。
And then finally, we did some work internally looking at nonbillable roles and seeing how we could improve our efficiency of kind of billable to nonbillable roles. Those are the 3 things that we've been working on as an organization over the last kind of 2 to 3 quarters to kind of affect what we expect to see in the back half of the year. And it's an area that we're paying a lot of attention on as it's embedded in our guidance and as part of how we think about our execution for the year.
最後,我們在內部做了一些工作,研究不可計費的角色,看看我們如何提高從可計費到不可計費的角色的效率。這些是我們在過去 2 到 3 個季度中作為一個組織一直在努力的 3 件事,以影響我們預計在今年下半年看到的情況。這是我們非常關注的一個領域,因為它已嵌入我們的指南中,並且是我們對今年執行情況的思考方式的一部分。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Ken Wong with Oppenheimer.
我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Wong 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。
Hoi-Fung Wong - Research Analyst
Hoi-Fung Wong - Research Analyst
This first one's for Mike. I couldn't help but notice that your customer commentary sounded a bit top-heavy with the migration of a Tier 1, go-lives with Tier 1s and 5 Tier 2s. Is that just simply kind of just convenient timing in the quarter? Or are you seeing greater conviction from some of your largest customers?
第一個是給邁克的。我忍不住注意到您的客戶評論聽起來有點頭重腳輕,遷移了第 1 層,上線了第 1 層和 5 個第 2 層。這只是本季度的一個方便的時間安排嗎?或者您是否看到一些最大的客戶更有信心?
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Yes, super question. I mean I guess you have to say, just based on the duration of deals and the duration of projects that sometimes there will be (inaudible) where everything aligns, right? That's half of the answer. But in general, and I wouldn't say that this just applies to the Tier 1s, our confidence is building. I think confidence in the market is building generally. So I'd give ourselves a little bit of credit for that in addition to just maybe this is the quarter where we saw this type of demand.
是的,超級問題。我的意思是,我想你不得不說,根據交易的持續時間和項目的持續時間,有時會(聽不清)一切都一致,對吧?這是答案的一半。但總的來說,我不會說這只適用於一級,我們的信心正在建立。我認為市場信心正在普遍建立。因此,除了也許這是我們看到此類需求的季度之外,我還為此給了自己一點榮譽。
I think we are -- I think 31 production customers now is a pretty good milestone. I think dealing with the -- dealing with all of the work, the project-related go-live work, I think successfully getting these programs live, I think it's very, very helpful. And I think that, that's only going to help us going forward build confidence with the top end of this market.
我認為我們 - 我認為現在 31 個生產客戶是一個很好的里程碑。我認為處理 - 處理所有工作,與項目相關的上線工作,我認為成功地讓這些程序上線,我認為這非常非常有幫助。我認為,這只會幫助我們在這個市場的高端建立信心。
And I just think especially as it relates to the customer base, we traditionally have been more focused and more successful with Tier 1 and Tier 2 insurance companies. So all strategies of the platform and the approach to our cloud strategy was to ensure that we invested enough to provide a service that they could trust. And I think that you can see that starting to come out in the quarterly results. So I'll chalk it up to a little bit of both.
我只是認為,特別是與客戶群相關時,我們傳統上更專注於一級和二級保險公司,並取得了更大的成功。因此,該平台的所有策略和我們的雲策略方法都是為了確保我們投入足夠的資金來提供他們可以信任的服務。我認為你可以在季度業績中看到這一點。所以我會把它歸結為兩者的一點點。
Hoi-Fung Wong - Research Analyst
Hoi-Fung Wong - Research Analyst
Got it. Fantastic. I appreciate the color there. And then, Jeff, just diving into the subscription gross margins a little more. I believe you mentioned a -- kind of a new arrangement with a cloud partner. Just wondering, was that the bulk of the uptick from Q1 to Q2? Or how should we think about what the right quantification of that benefit was?
知道了。極好的。我欣賞那裡的顏色。然後,傑夫,再深入研究一下訂閱毛利率。我相信你提到了一種與雲合作夥伴的新安排。只是想知道,這是從第一季度到第二季度的大部分上漲嗎?或者我們應該如何考慮該收益的正確量化是什麼?
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
We're seeing -- there's a variety of things. There's been a big emphasis in terms of our engineering team on -- we've kind of -- we went through a phase where we were 100% focused on making sure that the product works and making sure that we were meeting the needs of the customers. And we are now thinking through more strategically how we make this thing more efficient over time, right?
我們看到 - 有各種各樣的事情。我們的工程團隊一直非常重視——我們有點——我們經歷了一個階段,我們 100% 專注於確保產品正常工作並確保我們滿足客戶的需求顧客。我們現在正在更具戰略性地思考如何隨著時間的推移讓這件事變得更有效率,對吧?
And so I think we've seen that -- seen some benefits there. We really -- we entered into a long-term relationship with our cloud service provider -- that does include some incentives and pricing incentives so that we saw some benefit there. We think about our business on a very annual -- through a very annual lens many times.
所以我認為我們已經看到了——看到了一些好處。我們真的 - 我們與我們的雲服務提供商建立了長期關係 - 這確實包括一些激勵措施和定價激勵措施,因此我們在那裡看到了一些好處。我們每年都會考慮我們的業務 - 通過非常年度的鏡頭多次。
And when we look at this year, we know that there is some work that's required to get our customers from some of the earlier ski slope releases to the later ski slope releases. Over time, that work becomes smaller and smaller. But we have some of that modeled in the year that ended up not happening as much as we had originally thought in Q2. And so some of those costs have shifted into Q3 and Q4.
當我們回顧今年時,我們知道需要做一些工作才能讓我們的客戶從一些較早的滑雪場發佈到較晚的滑雪場發布。隨著時間的推移,這項工作變得越來越小。但是我們在這一年中進行了一些建模,但最終並沒有像我們最初在第二季度設想的那樣發生。因此,其中一些成本已轉移到第三季度和第四季度。
But when we look at it all together, we started the year with an outlook of around 46% subscription and support margins are now guiding to 51% to 52%. So we're really pleased with the progression that we've seen as we work through the year. And it's a variety of things. I mean it's a lot of focus, and some of it is also the subscription revenue line has firmed up a bit. Some of that is linearity. Q2 was a very healthy bookings quarter for us, a little bit higher than what we were expecting going into the quarter. And so that linearity also helps on the margin side.
但是,當我們一起來看時,我們年初的訂閱率前景約為 46%,而支持利潤率現在指導為 51% 至 52%。因此,我們對這一年的工作進展感到非常滿意。這是各種各樣的事情。我的意思是它有很多重點,其中一些也是訂閱收入線已經穩固了一點。其中一些是線性的。第二季度對我們來說是一個非常健康的預訂季度,略高於我們對該季度的預期。因此,線性度也有助於保證金方面。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from the line of Matt VanVliet with BTIG.
下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Matt VanVliet。
Matthew David VanVliet - Director & Application Software Analyst
Matthew David VanVliet - Director & Application Software Analyst
But I guess when you look at the competitive landscape out there and sort of the pipeline of deals that you've already either gone live or in late stage of deployment today, are you seeing any of your existing customers maybe just kind of check the box and say, and we're moving to Guidewire. We're not even going to put this out for competitive bid as they move to the cloud? Or I guess how are you thinking -- or how are you hearing from your customers about their appetite to move to the cloud without really needing to go out and see what else is in the market?
但我想當你看看那裡的競爭格局以及你今天已經上線或處於後期部署階段的交易渠道時,你是否看到任何現有客戶可能只是勾選了複選框說,我們要轉向 Guidewire。我們甚至不打算在他們遷移到雲端時將其用於競爭性投標?或者我猜你是怎麼想的——或者你是如何從你的客戶那裡聽到他們想要遷移到雲而不真正需要出去看看市場上還有什麼的?
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Well, I'll take that. So for an existing Guidewire customer that is already up, already running with a deployed ClaimCenter, deployed PolicyCenter, even a deployed BillingCenter, our whole strategy is to make it highly unlikely that it would make any sense for them to replace that implementation with something other than Guidewire. We are trying to minimize that switching cost. I think we largely have minimized that switching cost. The switching cost is not 0. As we've talked about previously, there is some amount of switching costs and it is a project.
好吧,我會接受的。因此,對於已經啟動的現有 Guidewire 客戶,已經在運行部署的 ClaimCenter、部署的 PolicyCenter,甚至部署的 BillingCenter,我們的整個策略是讓他們極不可能用其他實現替換該實現比導絲。我們正在努力將轉換成本降至最低。我認為我們在很大程度上已經將轉換成本降至最低。轉換成本不是 0。正如我們之前談到的,有一定數量的轉換成本,這是一個項目。
But I would hesitate to say that I have -- I'm trying to think, if I've seen a single situation in which somebody has said, we're going to put the whole thing, kind of going to open up the whole strategy and look at it just because it's so clear that most of the implementation of Guidewire is supported in Guidewire Cloud, right?
但我會猶豫地說我已經 - 我正在努力思考,如果我看到有人說過的單一情況,我們將把整個事情放在一起,有點要打開整個策略並查看它,因為很明顯 Guidewire Cloud 支持大部分 Guidewire 實施,對嗎?
So Guidewire on-prem can mostly be upgraded to Guidewire Cloud as opposed to reimplemented on a competitive core system. And that's fundamental to our strategy. We didn't start over with the product, and it wouldn't have made any sense, and it would have caused us to have to abandon that customer base. And so we're not yet -- that isn't just a perfect push the button and the thing upgrades, but it's much, much better and much more logical for a big deployed, excuse me, insurance company sort of opening it up to competitive bid.
因此,Guidewire 本地部署大部分可以升級到 Guidewire Cloud,而不是在競爭性核心系統上重新實施。這是我們戰略的基礎。我們沒有從產品開始,它沒有任何意義,它會導致我們不得不放棄那個客戶群。所以我們還沒有——這不僅僅是一個完美的按下按鈕和升級,但對於一個大型部署來說,它要好得多,也更合乎邏輯,對不起,保險公司有點開放它有競爭力的出價。
Now there still is competition out there for the greenfield implementation lines of business. And we do see existing Guidewire customers saying, "Hey, even though we've got Guidewire already for this new line of business that's not yet modernized, they will do RFPs for that, and we will compete for that business and we compete favorably in those circumstances, and that does occur." But for the existing base, it's unlikely that, that would be a dynamic we would worry about, just not because we're the best, it's just because that's fundamental to the strategy here.
現在,對於綠地實施業務線仍然存在競爭。我們確實看到現有的 Guidewire 客戶說,“嘿,儘管我們已經為這個尚未現代化的新業務線提供了 Guidewire,但他們會為此進行 RFP,我們將競爭該業務,我們在競爭中處於有利地位那些情況,而且確實發生了。”但是對於現有的基地來說,這不太可能成為我們擔心的動態,這不是因為我們是最好的,而是因為這是這裡戰略的基礎。
Matthew David VanVliet - Director & Application Software Analyst
Matthew David VanVliet - Director & Application Software Analyst
Okay. Very helpful. And then, Jeff, not to beleaguer the point too much, but obviously, as you get more scale on GWCP, in particular, how much more of the long-term operating margin targets and I guess within that, obviously, gross margin, but how much of those reliant on just getting more and more customers to migrate over versus some of the other things you outlined earlier on the call, like reducing headcount -- or I guess restraining headcount growth and some of these others? So I guess the question is just how much do we need to see more migrations occur to ultimately get to those long-term targets?
好的。很有幫助。然後,傑夫,不要過多地爭論這一點,但顯然,隨著 GWCP 的規模越來越大,特別是長期營業利潤率目標還有多少,我想其中,顯然,毛利率,但其中有多少依賴於讓越來越多的客戶遷移過來,而不是你之前在電話會議上概述的其他一些事情,比如減少員工人數——或者我想限制員工人數增長和其他一些人?所以我想問題是我們需要多少才能看到更多遷移發生才能最終實現這些長期目標?
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Yes. I mean I -- and we've talked about this in the past. But I kind of think business the way we built this and attack this opportunity is that we built a business to support $1 billion of ARR, and we need to scale into that $1 billion of ARR. So that does mean that in order to get to our midterm targets, which have us at $1 billion of ARR, we need to add new customers and continue steady progression of migrating our installed base and winning new business.
是的。我的意思是我 - 我們過去曾討論過這個問題。但我有點認為我們建立這個業務並抓住這個機會的方式是我們建立一個業務來支持 10 億美元的 ARR,我們需要擴展到這 10 億美元的 ARR。因此,這確實意味著為了實現我們的中期目標,即我們的 ARR 達到 10 億美元,我們需要增加新客戶並繼續穩步推進我們的安裝基礎和贏得新業務。
I think what we saw -- what we're seeing this year is we're starting to see some of these larger new modernizations come back into the market within -- and a lot of these have been sitting on the sidelines for a period of time. So that's an exciting back pattern for us. But absolutely, we need to execute on our plan and continue to sell. And our model assumes that we can do that in a very scalable manner by not adding headcount and continuing to leverage the investments in the platform that we've made.
我認為我們所看到的——我們今年所看到的是,我們開始看到一些更大的新現代化設施重新進入市場——其中很多已經擱置了一段時間時間。所以這對我們來說是一個令人興奮的背部圖案。但絕對,我們需要執行我們的計劃並繼續銷售。我們的模型假設我們可以通過不增加員工人數並繼續利用我們所做的平台投資,以非常可擴展的方式做到這一點。
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
So let me just jump on what Jeff said, Matt. I want you to understand this. The positive improvement in the margin this quarter, I am super, super pleased with because it indicates that the strategy is working, right? It indicates that -- you could call it the pivot we made, the decisions we made around prioritizing constraining headcount growth in these areas, and the focus that we made on optimizing our infrastructure spend are starting to work.
所以讓我直接跳到 Jeff 所說的話,Matt。我想讓你明白這一點。本季度利潤率的積極改善,我非常非常高興,因為這表明該戰略正在發揮作用,對吧?這表明——你可以稱之為我們做出的支點,我們圍繞優先限制這些領域的員工人數增長而做出的決定,以及我們對優化基礎設施支出的關注正在開始發揮作用。
And it doesn't mean that if you hold revenue flat, that you're going to get more and more efficient. It's sort of like, hey, we said, "Hey, if we take x number of people and they build a capability into our platform that will work for 1 through 100 customers, we still need those people because we got 31, right?" But as we go from 31 to 100, we don't need to add more people. We -- the platform marginally will scale much, much more efficiently now. And so that's why we're so pleased with the results on the margin side this quarter, is that, that strategy is now working. And I think you can start to see it in the financials.
這並不意味著如果你保持收入持平,你就會變得越來越有效率。這有點像,嘿,我們說,“嘿,如果我們有 x 個人,他們在我們的平台中構建了一個功能,可以為 1 到 100 個客戶工作,我們仍然需要這些人,因為我們有 31 個,對吧?”但是當我們從 31 人增加到 100 人時,我們不需要增加更多人。我們——這個平台現在可以更有效地擴展了。因此,這就是為什麼我們對本季度利潤率方面的結果如此滿意的原因,即該戰略正在發揮作用。我認為你可以開始在財務上看到它。
So great question, but I really want you to understand that the philosophy here is, like Jeff said, we've built the platform to convert this customer base and win the majority of Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3 insurance companies in the world, and I think we're on a path to doing that.
很好的問題,但我真的想讓你明白這裡的理念是,就像傑夫說的,我們已經建立了這個平台來轉化這個客戶群,並贏得了世界上大多數一級、二級、三級保險公司,我認為我們正在朝著這個方向努力。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from the line of Parker Lane with Stifel.
下一個問題來自 Parker Lane 與 Stifel 的合作。
Matthew James Kikkert - Research Analyst
Matthew James Kikkert - Research Analyst
This is Matthew Kikkert on for Parker. To start, what are your thoughts on the use case for generative AI within the Guidewire platform? Where would be the potential for incremental use on future platform updates? Could you see it helping at all with migrations?
這是派克的 Matthew Kikkert。首先,您對 Guidewire 平台中生成人工智能的用例有何看法?未來平台更新的增量使用潛力在哪裡?你能看到它對遷移有幫助嗎?
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Yes, thanks for the question. I'm super excited you asked. It's one of my little -- it's one of my favorite things to think about these days. The first thing I would say is I genuinely believe that this will have a big impact on every software company in the world, every person in the world. I think it's a very, very busy. And it's almost like something new in the technology landscape has been invented, and we are all going to go find ways to leverage it super effectively.
是的,謝謝你的提問。我很高興你問。這是我的一件小事——這是我這些天最喜歡想的事情之一。我要說的第一件事是,我真誠地相信這將對世界上的每一家軟件公司、世界上的每一個人產生重大影響。我認為這是一個非常非常忙碌的地方。這幾乎就像技術領域的新事物被發明了,我們都將尋找超級有效地利用它的方法。
I think one obvious area is code generation. The fact that these systems can generate code is maybe almost miraculous, in my opinion, but very, very exciting no matter what you think. So we think that over time, we'll improve the efficiency around implementations, maybe upgrades. But the -- but I think of it as every developer in the world will get a little bit more productive as we figure out ways to leverage this effectively and leverage this in a reliable and secure way. And that's certainly one area of potential.
我認為一個明顯的領域是代碼生成。這些系統可以生成代碼這一事實在我看來幾乎是奇蹟,但無論您怎麼想都非常非常令人興奮。所以我們認為,隨著時間的推移,我們將提高實施效率,也許是升級。但是——但我認為,隨著我們找到有效利用這一點並以可靠和安全的方式利用這一點的方法,世界上每個開發人員的工作效率都會提高一點。這當然是一個有潛力的領域。
There is a whole host of capabilities that you could imagine around customer interactions, claims management, quoting, the back and forth that is associated with talking to consumers about insurance policies and things like that. And I think fundamentally, the way -- on that side of it, I think Guidewire will certainly play a role in the innovation side of this and creative ways that we can deploy this in features of our service.
在客戶互動、理賠管理、報價、與消費者討論保險政策等相關的來回交流方面,您可以想像出一整套功能。我認為從根本上說,在這一方面,我認為 Guidewire 肯定會在創新方面發揮作用,以及我們可以在我們的服務功能中部署它的創新方式。
But I also -- as one of our colleagues here, John Mullen, pointed out to me today, actually, the fact that we have this marketplace that exists and facilitates start-ups and insurtechs and smaller companies plugging into Guidewire-deployed systems is a really big, big boost, I think, to Guidewire, but especially Guidewire customers.
但我也——正如我們在座的一位同事約翰·馬倫 (John Mullen) 今天向我指出的那樣,事實上,我們擁有這個存在的市場,並促進初創企業、保險科技公司和較小的公司接入 Guidewire 部署的系統,這是一個我認為,對 Guidewire,尤其是 Guidewire 客戶來說,這真的是一個巨大的推動力。
I think I said this before, ChatGPT sort of opened everybody's eyes to this, I said it a couple of years ago at Connections, is we really do see a world in which there's a very significant amount of automation that can be unlocked. But I'd say, fundamentally, you're going to need a modernized core system at the base of your operation if you really are going to fully leverage tools like generative AI. I think that, that's a fundamental step. And I think these insurance companies are still going to need platforms like Guidewire on the policy claims and billing side, and then you add this generative layer on top. And I think you'll get a real improvement in the business value and the transformation these companies are able to drive.
我想我之前說過,ChatGPT 讓每個人都看到了這一點,幾年前我在 Connections 上說過,我們確實看到了一個可以解鎖大量自動化的世界。但我要說的是,從根本上說,如果你真的要充分利用生成 AI 等工具,你將需要一個現代化的核心系統作為你運營的基礎。我認為,這是一個基本步驟。而且我認為這些保險公司在保單索賠和計費方面仍然需要像 Guidewire 這樣的平台,然後你在上面添加這個生成層。而且我認為你會在商業價值和這些公司能夠推動的轉型方面得到真正的提升。
But like I said, it's early, early days. It is early, early days, and the excitement about it comes from the fact that, like I said, I'm not the only one that genuinely think this is a miraculous level invention. And I think the impact to the insurance industry will be profound.
但就像我說的,現在還為時尚早。現在還很早,很早,對它的興奮來自於這樣一個事實,就像我說的,我不是唯一一個真正認為這是一個奇蹟般的關卡發明的人。我認為對保險業的影響將是深遠的。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from the line of Joe Vruwink with Baird.
下一個問題來自 Joe Vruwink 與 Baird 的對話。
Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst
Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst
I want to go back to the large insurer you're working with on the new greenfield effort. Can you maybe talk about how the nature of the greenfield engagements have changed just in either use case or maybe relative sizing of ACV? And then I guess related to this, how is the experience changing around follow-on activity post greenfield? Do these become the entryway to maybe getting involved with bigger lines of business subsequent to the experience on the greenfield effort?
我想回到與您合作進行新綠地項目的大型保險公司。您能否談談新建項目的性質在用例或 ACV 的相對規模方面發生了怎樣的變化?然後我想與此相關的是,綠地後後續活動的體驗如何變化?這些是否會成為在綠地項目經驗之後涉足更大業務線的入口?
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Yes, good question. So yes, we work with different carriers in different ways. In this particular one, we have a pretty broad agreement that basically says they will sort of project by project by project modernize to Guidewire. So as opposed to doing one massive deal with us, they look at it as when this line of business is ready to modernize or this line of business is ready to launch and that project is ready to kick off, that becomes a deal that we incrementally add to our contracts with that insurance company.
是的,好問題。所以是的,我們以不同的方式與不同的運營商合作。在這個特定的項目中,我們有一個相當廣泛的協議,基本上說他們將一個項目一個項目地對 Guidewire 進行現代化改造。因此,與與我們進行大規模交易相反,他們將其視為當該業務線準備好進行現代化或該業務線準備好啟動並且該項目準備好啟動時,這將成為我們逐步完成的交易添加到我們與該保險公司的合同中。
Not everybody wants to approach it that way. Not all of our customers do. But in this case, that made the most sense. And so for sure, as experience and confidence builds, both on the platform side, but especially on the customer side, it facilitates an acceleration of those projects, right? As you say, hey, we got that done successfully, and that's going well. And so let's take another bite at more of the modernization backlog and greenlight that project and get that started and move that to Guidewire.
不是每個人都想以這種方式處理它。並非我們所有的客戶都這樣做。但在這種情況下,這最有意義。所以可以肯定的是,隨著經驗和信心的建立,無論是在平台方面,還是在客戶方面,它都會促進這些項目的加速,對吧?正如你所說,嘿,我們成功地完成了這項工作,而且進展順利。因此,讓我們再看一下該項目的更多現代化積壓工作和綠燈,然後開始並將其移至 Guidewire。
And so that's basically what we're seeing there. That's not unique. We've seen that with a number of other companies. We often see this with acquisitions. We've seen this with a couple of different carriers over my tenure here at Guidewire where they've got a baseline project, but there's an acquisition that comes sort of after the initial project has been kicked off, and that acquisition creates an opportunity to do another line of business with the new implementation of Guidewire.
所以這基本上就是我們在那裡看到的。這不是唯一的。我們已經在許多其他公司看到了這一點。我們經常在收購中看到這一點。我在 Guidewire 任職期間,我們已經在幾家不同的承運人身上看到了這一點,他們有一個基準項目,但在初始項目啟動後進行了一次收購,這次收購創造了一個機會通過新實施的 Guidewire 開展另一項業務。
And like I said, the name of the game for me is project go-lives, successful projects, build confidence, build success, ensure that we're just steadily executing because that increases the likelihood that, that next line of business, it will just be logical to put that on to Guidewire in the platform.
就像我說的,對我來說,遊戲的名稱是項目上線、成功的項目、建立信心、建立成功,確保我們正在穩步執行,因為這增加了下一個業務線的可能性,它將將其放在平台中的 Guidewire 上是合乎邏輯的。
Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst
Joseph D. Vruwink - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. That's all great. And then just on the new modernization activity that's been talked about a couple of times, what might be kind of a reasonable or maybe guardrails around sales cycle that could end up being associated with these? And is this the type of thing where in magnitude, if you are able to win these within the next 12 months and maybe presents a potential to see a sharper rise in ARR maybe, I don't think it would be next year, but maybe in that fiscal 2025 time frame?
好的。這一切都很棒。然後就已經討論過幾次的新的現代化活動而言,可能最終與這些活動相關聯的銷售週期的合理或護欄是什麼?如果你能夠在接下來的 12 個月內贏得這些,並且可能會出現 ARR 急劇上升的潛力,我認為這不會是明年,但也許是這種類型的事情在 2025 財年的時間框架內?
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
I guess certainly, there is that potential. I hesitate to forecast that or predict that. When we do an assessment of the total addressable market that exists in P&C for modernization, we do see a pretty significant amount of these projects and systems that will eventually occur. And so as confidence builds, as our experience builds, as the risks and costs associated with successfully executing these monetizations, as those things get more controlled, you do see the potential, I'd say, for the pace to pick up.
我想當然有這種潛力。我猶豫要不要預測那個或預測那個。當我們對 P&C 中存在的現代化總潛在市場進行評估時,我們確實看到最終會出現相當數量的此類項目和系統。因此,隨著信心的建立,隨著我們經驗的積累,隨著與成功執行這些貨幣化相關的風險和成本,隨著這些事情得到更多的控制,我會說,你確實看到了加快步伐的潛力。
But, and I've said this a number -- many, many times, we are not the only factor and the technology is not the only factor and the timing of the insurance company's decisions around these things. They have other priorities and objectives. And we've had deals that are perfectly logical and eventually are going to happen, but something else pops up either on the regulatory side or on the -- just the baseline insurance side, sort of catastrophe-like other risks and events can have an impact on this.
但是,我已經說過很多次了——很多很多次,我們不是唯一的因素,技術也不是保險公司圍繞這些事情做出決定的唯一因素和時機。他們有其他優先事項和目標。我們已經達成了完全合乎邏輯且最終會發生的交易,但在監管方面或在 - 只是基線保險方面突然出現了其他事情,有點像其他風險和事件的災難對此產生影響。
And so there's a lot of other factors that could control the timing of these things. But we're going to -- we do our best to do our part in the increased likelihood of success and the value that we're delivering. And so that potential exists, but I'm hesitant to forecast it if that makes sense.
所以還有很多其他因素可以控制這些事情的時間。但我們將——我們盡最大努力在增加成功的可能性和我們提供的價值方面儘自己的一份力量。所以這種潛力是存在的,但如果這有意義的話,我對預測它猶豫不決。
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
I'd just add a bit. I think this is always part of our plan. It's very consistent with how we model this. We knew that modernization has been the bread and butter of Guidewire and needed to be a big part of how we think about the long-term opportunity here. So we're excited to see that start to kind of -- and show some meaningful progression. And that was always -- it's kind of validating the model and validating how we think about the opportunity.
我只是補充一點。我認為這始終是我們計劃的一部分。這與我們對此建模的方式非常一致。我們知道,現代化一直是 Guidewire 的生計和黃油,需要成為我們思考這裡的長期機會的重要組成部分。因此,我們很高興看到這種情況開始出現——並顯示出一些有意義的進展。這一直都是——它在某種程度上驗證了模型並驗證了我們如何看待這個機會。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Michael Turrin with Wells Fargo.
我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Michael Turrin。
Michael James Turrin - Senior Equity Analyst
Michael James Turrin - Senior Equity Analyst
I think so far, the commentary on the macro has been fairly clear, Mike, but maybe one on the competitive environment, if I may. I know it hasn't been long, but you had a competitor recently depart the public market. So I'm wondering if there's any change you're hearing in customer conversions or just how you'd respond to the overall question on the competitive environment.
我認為到目前為止,對宏觀的評論已經相當明確,邁克,但如果可以的話,也許是關於競爭環境的評論。我知道時間不長,但您最近有一個競爭對手離開了公開市場。所以我想知道您是否在客戶轉換方面聽到任何變化,或者您將如何回應有關競爭環境的整體問題。
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Yes. I think my talk track on competitive is that things have not changed. We still have competitors regardless of the circumstances around the ownership of those competitors. They're still out there. They still remain. I'm super, super happy with our progress to date, and I think that I am positive on our progress and positive about the future at Guidewire. And I think that, that will have an impact on our ability to compete in the market successfully.
是的。我認為我關於競爭的談話軌道是事情沒有改變。不管這些競爭對手的所有權情況如何,我們仍然有競爭對手。他們還在外面。他們仍然存在。我對我們迄今為止的進展非常、非常滿意,我認為我對我們的進展和 Guidewire 的未來持樂觀態度。我認為,這將對我們在市場上成功競爭的能力產生影響。
Like I've said before, continually upmarket. I think we have a very differentiated offering upmarket for Tier 1 and Tier 2 insurance companies, even top end of Tier 3. It's like very clear to me, and I think it's becoming clearer and clearer that, that's going to be the -- the ultimate winner in this market will be Guidewire. But we still do have that competition.
就像我之前說過的,不斷升級。我認為我們為 1 級和 2 級保險公司提供非常差異化的高端產品,甚至是 3 級保險公司的高端。這對我來說非常清楚,而且我認為它變得越來越清楚,這將是 -這個市場的最終贏家將是 Guidewire。但我們仍然有競爭。
And so the news that you're referring to is pretty recent. We -- but like my message to the team here at Guidewire, let's stay focused, let's keep executing, and let's just keep playing our game. And I think we'll continue to succeed kind of at least as well or better than we have to date. So that's my take on the competitive situation. It generally hasn't changed much.
所以你提到的新聞是最近的。我們——但就像我給 Guidewire 團隊的信息一樣,讓我們保持專注,讓我們繼續執行,讓我們繼續玩我們的遊戲。而且我認為我們將繼續取得成功,至少與我們迄今為止取得的成就一樣好或更好。這就是我對競爭形勢的看法。它通常沒有太大變化。
Michael James Turrin - Senior Equity Analyst
Michael James Turrin - Senior Equity Analyst
Very balanced. Jeff, stepping away from margin or maybe to ARR for just a moment. You're holding on to the outlook there. You mentioned some of the positive first half impacts, but I think called out tougher compares in the back half. If I look at it, I see constant currency growth rates in 2Q and 4Q that are at least somewhat similar. So just hoping to understand that comment a bit more, if there's anything in the macro or anything else that might be driving more conservative stance and the rest of your outlook for ARR. Just anything else you can add there is helpful.
非常平衡。傑夫,暫時離開保證金或可能進入 ARR。你堅持那裡的前景。你提到了上半場的一些積極影響,但我認為在後半場進行了更嚴格的比較。如果我看一下,我會發現第二季度和第四季度的貨幣增長率至少有些相似。因此,如果宏觀中有任何內容或其他任何可能推動更保守立場的內容以及您對 ARR 的其他展望,那麼只是希望能更多地理解該評論。您可以添加的任何其他內容都會有所幫助。
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Yes, nothing really. I mean as you know, Q4 is such a big quarter for us. So we usually don't move our guidance around too much at the early part of the year, had a really good first half. Q2 was really strong. So that gives us increasing confidence. And then on the compare side, that's more an estimate of our model, right? So just when we look at ramp activity and when that materializes into ARR, it just so happened that this year, the first half was pretty healthy in that regard. And the second half compared to what we saw last year, those compares are much more difficult. And so that just kind of flows through the model.
是的,真的沒什麼。我的意思是如你所知,第四季度對我們來說是一個重要的季度。因此,我們通常不會在年初大幅調整我們的指導方針,上半年表現非常好。 Q2真的很強勁。這給了我們越來越大的信心。然後在比較方面,這更多是對我們模型的估計,對吧?因此,當我們查看坡道活動並將其具體化為 ARR 時,恰好今年上半年在這方面非常健康。下半年與我們去年看到的相比,這些比較要困難得多。所以這只是一種流經模型。
In addition to last year being pretty amazing in terms of the overall ARR attrition that we experienced last year, this year, we're still expecting very solid retention rates around kind of 3% ARR attrition is how we always think about modeling our business, and we're within those guidelines. But last year was a very strong year in that regard. So that also created a little bit of a difficult compare.
除了去年在我們去年經歷的整體 ARR 損耗方面非常驚人之外,今年,我們仍然期望非常穩定的保留率大約 3% ARR 損耗是我們一直考慮建模我們的業務的方式,我們在這些指導方針之內。但去年在這方面是非常強勁的一年。所以這也造成了一些困難的比較。
And so those are some of the dynamics that are causing net new ARR to slow down a little bit in the back half of the year, but that was always embedded into how we thought how this year would play out.
因此,這些是導致今年下半年淨新 ARR 略有放緩的一些動力,但這始終嵌入到我們對今年將如何發揮作用的思考中。
Operator
Operator
Our final question is from the line of Tyler Radke with Citi.
我們的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Tyler Radke。
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Mike, just on the go-live, I'm curious how that compared to your expectations. And are you expecting kind of the pace of go-lives to increase in the second half of the year?
邁克,即將上線,我很好奇這與您的期望相比如何。您是否預計今年下半年上線的速度會有所加快?
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Yes, super question. So the go-live activity has a lot to do with how the projects proceed, whether or not there's any delays and anything that you catch and whether or not those goal updates are pushed out. I would say generally, all -- unlike -- I think every project dynamics a bit like this, is like you somewhat aspirationally at the beginning, and then unfortunately, you get circumstances that cause a go-live to push out.
是的,超級問題。因此,上線活動與項目的進展方式有很大關係,是否有任何延遲和您發現的任何問題,以及這些目標更新是否被推出。我會說,一般來說,所有 - 不同 - 我認為每個項目的動態都有點像這樣,就像你在開始時有點抱負一樣,然後不幸的是,你會遇到導致上線的情況。
So we do see those from time to time. And so I hesitate to have you like catch me start to forecast go-lives because that's not my intention. But I would say it does match our expectations, if you know what I mean. Like the pace of it is starting to be something that I'd say our company is going to get used to executing at that pace sort of maybe forever, right?
所以我們確實不時看到那些。所以我猶豫是否讓你喜歡抓住我開始預測上線,因為那不是我的意圖。但我會說它確實符合我們的期望,如果你明白我的意思的話。就像它的速度開始成為我想說的那樣,我們公司將習慣於以這種速度執行,可能永遠如此,對吧?
Because when you do the math, we like to do these over the weekends because it inevitably involves some transition downtime for these companies. These core systems, when they actually swap over, have to be taken down before they're brought back up on the new thing. And so you want to do that on the weekend. And so that creates a big complicated project to execute flawlessly between Friday night and Monday morning.
因為當你做數學時,我們喜歡在周末做這些,因為這不可避免地涉及這些公司的一些過渡停機時間。這些核心系統,當它們實際交換時,必須在它們恢復到新事物之前被拆除。所以你想在周末這樣做。因此,這就創建了一個複雜的大項目,需要在周五晚上和周一早上之間完美執行。
And so what we're doing is looking ahead at every single weekend now until forever sort of filling up those slots based on the demand that we are seeing. And so it was in line. These things are never perfect, and so it wasn't exactly every single 1 6 months ago that we thought would go live in the quarter, went live in the quarter. But we're very happy with the execution this quarter.
因此,我們正在做的是現在每個週末都在展望未來,直到永遠根據我們看到的需求來填補這些空缺。所以它是一致的。這些東西從來都不是完美的,所以並不是每一個 1 6 個月前我們都認為會在本季度上線,在本季度上線。但我們對本季度的執行情況感到非常滿意。
And like I said, I think that this is going to end up being -- I kind of tried to point to this in my prepared remarks. It's like this is going to be just a steady, steady part of Guidewire from now and for a really long time just because of the numbers in the customer base and the new business activity that we see bear that out. If we keep doing deals and we keep filling the pipeline, we keep closing deals and then fill in the pipeline for go-lives, that activity, that go-live activity will just keep going.
就像我說的,我認為這最終會是——我在準備好的發言中試圖指出這一點。就好像這將成為 Guidewire 的一個穩定、穩定的部分,從現在開始,在很長一段時間內,只是因為客戶群的數量和我們看到的新業務活動證明了這一點。如果我們繼續做交易,我們繼續填充管道,我們繼續關閉交易,然後填充管道以進行上線,該活動,該上線活動將繼續進行。
As it does, the demand on the platform will keep growing. The revenue on the platform will keep growing. And because we're able to control the headcount and the infrastructure expense, the margin around that product will keep improving. And you see that in this quarter in a really positive way. So I'm just very, very excited about the progress, the execution and maybe the determination of the people at Guidewire to make those projects happen. So thanks. I don't know. Did that help you? Yes. Thanks a lot.
這樣一來,對該平台的需求將不斷增長。該平台的收入將繼續增長。而且由於我們能夠控制員工人數和基礎設施費用,該產品的利潤率將不斷提高。你在本季度以一種非常積極的方式看到了這一點。因此,我對 Guidewire 的進展、執行以及 Guidewire 員工實現這些項目的決心感到非常、非常興奮。那謝謝啦。我不知道。那對你有幫助嗎?是的。多謝。
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
We'll hold you to 50 a quarter from here on out.
從現在開始,我們將把你限制在每季度 50 個。
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Yes. Perfect. Perfect. Thank you.
是的。完美的。完美的。謝謝。
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
Tyler Maverick Radke - VP & Senior Analyst
A quick follow-up for Jeff. Just on the margins, obviously, a lot of good cost savings stuff this year between hyperscaler contract negotiations and real estate consolidation. Should we think about these as upside to your long-term targets that you gave out? Or just help us understand how those play into those.
傑夫的快速跟進。很明顯,今年在超大規模合同談判和房地產整合之間節省了大量成本。我們是否應該將這些視為您給出的長期目標的好處?或者只是幫助我們了解這些是如何發揮作用的。
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Jeffrey Elliott Cooper - CFO
Yes. I mean I think on the overall subscription and support margins, we're clearly tracking a little bit ahead of our FY '23 targets. So that's positive. And it's helpful as we think through our kind of longer-term targets, but I wouldn't necessarily call them out as upside yet, right? This is helpful for us to kind of feel more and more confident as we execute towards those targets.
是的。我的意思是,我認為在整體訂閱和支持利潤率方面,我們顯然比我們的 23 財年目標提前了一點。所以這是積極的。當我們考慮我們的長期目標時,這很有幫助,但我不一定要把它們稱為上行,對吧?這有助於我們在朝著這些目標執行時感到越來越自信。
Like the building and the real estate consolidation was not embedded into our plan. So that is a little bit of upside in terms of how we built the model previously. And then in general, when we look at some of the cost savings initiatives, the company is doing a number of activities that I think give us a little bit of confidence that we're tracking a bit ahead of the plan. But know that there's still a ton of execution between now and FY '25 or some of those longer-term targets. So at a high level, that's how I think about it.
就像建築和房地產整合沒有納入我們的計劃。因此,就我們之前構建模型的方式而言,這有一點好處。然後總的來說,當我們查看一些成本節約計劃時,公司正在開展一些活動,我認為這些活動讓我們有一點信心,我們正在提前計劃進行跟踪。但要知道,從現在到 25 財年或其中一些長期目標之間仍有大量的執行工作。所以在高層次上,這就是我的想法。
Operator
Operator
At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor to Mike Rosenbaum for closing remarks.
至此,我們的問答環節已經結束。我將請 Mike Rosenbaum 發表閉幕詞。
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Michael George Rosenbaum - CEO & Director
Okay. I just wanted to say thanks, everybody, for participating today. We're obviously thrilled with the continued cloud momentum across new and existing customers. And we had Tier 1 and Tier 2 insurers going live this quarter, and like we talked about, driving margin improvement. We think this quarter is a great validation of our strategy and increases confidence in our long-term opportunities. So I look forward to catching up with you all further throughout the quarter, and have a great afternoon. Thank you.
好的。我只想對大家今天的參與表示感謝。我們顯然對新老客戶持續的雲勢頭感到興奮。本季度我們有一級和二級保險公司上線,就像我們談到的那樣,推動利潤率提高。我們認為本季度是對我們戰略的一個很好的驗證,並增強了我們對長期機會的信心。因此,我期待在整個季度中進一步與大家見面,並度過一個愉快的下午。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。