Guidewire Software Inc (GWRE) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Guidewire Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Guidewire 第四季度和 2022 財年財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Alex Hughes. You may begin.

我現在將會議轉交給您的主持人 Alex Hughes。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Guidewire Software's Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022, which ended on July 31. I'm Alex Hughes, Vice President of Investor Relations, and with me today is Mike Rosenbaum, Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Cooper, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線員。下午好，歡迎參加 Guidewire Software 於 7 月 31 日結束的第四季度和 2022 財年收益電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Alex Hughes，今天與我在一起的是首席執行官 Mike Rosenbaum；和首席財務官傑夫·庫珀。

A complete disclosure of our results can be found in our press release issued today as well as in our related Form 8-K furnished to the SEC, both of which are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available following the conclusion of the call.

我們今天發布的新聞稿以及提交給 SEC 的相關表格 8-K 中可以找到我們結果的完整披露，這兩個表格都可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。正在錄製今天的通話，通話結束後將提供重播。

Statements made on this call include forward-looking ones regarding our financial results, products, customer demand, operations, the impact of local, national and geopolitical events on our business and other matters. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions and are based on management's current expectations as of today and should not be relied upon as representing our views as of any subsequent date. Please refer to the press release and the risk factors and documents we file with the SEC, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K to be filed with the SEC, for information on risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in such statements.

在本次電話會議上發表的聲明包括關於我們的財務業績、產品、客戶需求、運營、地方、國家和地緣政治事件對我們業務和其他事項的影響的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述受風險、不確定性和假設的影響，並基於管理層截至今天的當前預期，不應被視為代表我們在任何後續日期的觀點。有關可能導致實際結果的風險、不確定性和假設的信息，請參閱新聞稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的風險因素和文件，包括我們將向 SEC 提交的關於表格 10-K 的最新年度報告與此類聲明中所述的內容存在重大差異。

We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures to provide additional information to investors. All commentary on margins, profitability and expenses are on a non-GAAP basis unless stated otherwise. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is provided in our press release. Reconciliations and additional data are also posted in a supplement on our IR website.

我們還將參考某些非公認會計準則財務措施，以向投資者提供更多信息。除非另有說明，否則所有關於利潤率、盈利能力和費用的評論均基於非公認會計原則。我們的新聞稿中提供了非公認會計原則與公認會計原則措施的對賬。對賬和其他數據也發佈在我們 IR 網站的補充材料中。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mike.

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給邁克。

Thank you, Alex. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks very much for joining us today. I'm happy to report a great finish to our fiscal year as we continue to steadily execute on our plan to lead the P&C industry to a modern cloud platform. Our progress in the fourth quarter is underscored by 16 cloud deals for our core software, bringing the total for the fiscal year to 40, and a constant currency ARR growth rate of 17%, which was higher than our expectations going into this fiscal year.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。大家下午好，非常感謝今天加入我們。隨著我們繼續穩步執行我們的計劃，將 P&C 行業帶入現代云平台，我很高興地報告我們的財政年度取得了圓滿成功。我們在第四季度取得的進展得益於我們核心軟件的 16 筆雲交易，使本財年的總數達到 40 筆，固定貨幣 ARR 增長率為 17%，高於我們對本財年的預期。

I am very happy with the continued progress we are making on our cloud platform and the customer programs it supports. Overall, I'm very pleased with the results in the quarter and the fiscal year, but do want to call out that overall sales activity fell short of our expectations.

我對我們在雲平台及其支持的客戶計劃上取得的持續進展感到非常高興。總體而言，我對本季度和本財年的結果感到非常滿意，但我想說的是整體銷售活動低於我們的預期。

Although we drove healthy deal volume in the quarter, we closed transactions with smaller upfront commitments, which we expect to grow as customers expand. We also closed fewer large cloud migrations than we expected heading into the fiscal year. All our existing on-prem customers are evaluating their plans with respect to cloud, but we have not yet created an acceleration of these migrations.

儘管我們在本季度推動了健康的交易量，但我們以較小的前期承諾完成了交易，我們預計隨著客戶的擴大，這些交易將會增長。在進入本財年之前，我們完成的大型雲遷移也比我們預期的要少。我們所有現有的本地客戶都在評估他們的雲計劃，但我們還沒有加速這些遷移。

These 2 factors had an impact on fully ramped ARR, which grew at 14% on a constant currency basis, and will have an impact on some of our forward-looking metrics, which Jeff will cover in a bit. While there are certainly days when we would like this industry transition to move faster, I am proud of the product innovation we have delivered, thrilled with how we are competing for new deals and confident that our current trajectory leads to our long-term goal of modernizing this critical although risk-averse industry we serve.

這兩個因素對完全上升的 ARR 產生了影響，在固定貨幣基礎上增長了 14%，並將對我們的一些前瞻性指標產生影響，傑夫將稍作介紹。雖然我們當然希望這個行業轉型更快，但我為我們提供的產品創新感到自豪，對我們如何競爭新交易感到興奮，並相信我們目前的發展軌跡會導致我們的長期目標使我們服務的這個關鍵但規避風險的行業現代化。

Before I jump into the Q4 details, I want to take a step back and reflect on how far we've come. We started our cloud transformation in earnest 2.5 years ago with the launch of Aspen, our first cloud platform release. Our goal was to establish a more efficient and agile platform that would form the foundation for all future Guidewire releases. We architected Guidewire Cloud Platform to support a more seamless release cadence so customers can update each release and take advantage of new innovation without an expensive and lengthy upgrade.

在我進入第四季度的細節之前，我想退後一步，反思一下我們已經走了多遠。 2.5 年前，隨著我們第一個雲平台版本 Aspen 的發布，我們正式開始了雲轉型。我們的目標是建立一個更高效、更敏捷的平台，為所有未來的 Guidewire 版本奠定基礎。我們構建了 Guidewire 雲平台以支持更無縫的發布節奏，因此客戶可以更新每個版本並利用新的創新，而無需進行昂貴且冗長的升級。

We believe this approach to updating the product and platform is essential to supporting the industry's efforts to modernize core platforms, engage with customers more effectively, innovate with new products and grow efficiently. In October, we will announce Claim, our sixth release in less than 3 years. Claim continues to enhance the operational maturity and scale required to support the world's largest insurers. It includes advancements to further simplify and speed, development of integrations to and from Guidewire. It also dramatically expands on the packaged product solution and country-specific content available under the Guidewire GO program, including content that accelerates time to market in Japan, Australia and the London market.

我們相信這種更新產品和平台的方法對於支持行業實現核心平台現代化、更有效地與客戶互動、利用新產品進行創新和高效增長的努力至關重要。 10 月，我們將發布 Claim，這是我們在不到 3 年的時間裡發布的第六個版本。理賠繼續提高支持全球最大保險公司所需的運營成熟度和規模。它包括進一步簡化和加快與 Guidewire 的集成開發。它還顯著擴展了 Guidewire GO 計劃下提供的打包產品解決方案和特定國家/地區的內容，包括加快日本、澳大利亞和倫敦市場上市時間的內容。

Finally, this upcoming release marks the introduction of Guidewire's Jutro digital platform to enable rapid delivery of rich digital experiences that work seamlessly with our core applications. The next objective was to drive adoption of our cloud platform. This adoption would provide us the practical experience we needed to ensure we would continue to lead the P&C core market worldwide. We have been enormously successful on this front. We now have over 120 customers committed to cloud, including 79 for Guidewire Cloud Platform, of which 19 are now operating in production on GWCP.

最後，這個即將發布的版本標誌著 Guidewire 的 Jutro 數字平台的推出，以實現與我們的核心應用程序無縫協作的豐富數字體驗的快速交付。下一個目標是推動我們的雲平台的採用。這種採用將為我們提供所需的實踐經驗，以確保我們將繼續引領全球財產險核心市場。我們在這方面取得了巨大的成功。我們現在有超過 120 家客戶致力於雲，其中 79 家用於 Guidewire 雲平台，其中 19 家現在在 GWCP 上投入生產。

Cloud is now consistently above 90% of our sales activity, and subscription revenue has now surpassed license revenue, which is an important milestone for the business and our transformation. The progress we have made to date gives me confidence that we're on the right path and that we will successfully transition our enterprise to the cloud. We, of course, have a lot of work to do, but everyone at Guidewire is excited for the challenge and opportunity ahead.

雲現在一直占我們銷售活動的 90% 以上，訂閱收入現已超過許可收入，這是業務和我們轉型的重要里程碑。迄今為止我們取得的進展讓我相信我們走在正確的道路上，並且我們將成功地將我們的企業遷移到雲。當然，我們還有很多工作要做，但 Guidewire 的每個人都對未來的挑戰和機遇感到興奮。

With that, let me turn to some of the highlights and takeaways from the fourth quarter. It was great to see continued progress driving deal volume through the quarter while also further penetrating Tier 1 and Tier 2 insurers. Of the 16 cloud wins in Q4, nearly half were with Tier 1 and Tier 2 insurers.

有了這個，讓我談談第四季度的一些亮點和要點。很高興看到整個季度的交易量持續取得進展，同時進一步滲透到一級和二級保險公司。在第四季度的 16 項云計算中，近一半來自一級和二級保險公司。

Similarly, for the full year, we had 40 cloud wins and over half of these were with Tier 1 and Tier 2 insurers. Some notable wins in the quarter included a cloud expansion with one of the largest insurers in the world who is extending InsuranceSuite Cloud to more lines of business. We also saw Kemper Corporation, one of the largest specialized insurers in the United States elect to migrate InsuranceSuite to the cloud.

同樣，全年我們獲得了 40 項云服務，其中一半以上來自一級和二級保險公司。本季度的一些顯著勝利包括與世界上最大的保險公司之一進行雲擴展，該保險公司正在將 InsuranceSuite Cloud 擴展到更多業務線。我們還看到美國最大的專業保險公司之一 Kemper Corporation 選擇將 InsuranceSuite 遷移到雲端。

A top 10 international insurer adopted PolicyCenter in the cloud for the United States and InsuranceSuite in the cloud for the London market. This is a new customer win and represents a significant potential expansion opportunity for us.

一家排名前 10 位的國際保險公司為美國採用了雲中的 PolicyCenter，為倫敦市場採用了雲中的 InsuranceSuite。這是一個新的客戶勝利，對我們來說是一個重要的潛在擴張機會。

InsuranceSuite Cloud was also selected for 2 exciting greenfield projects serving large car manufacturers that plan to embed auto insurance at the point of sale. The first of these was for OnStar Insurance, which is affiliated with General Motors. The second deal is with a large partner and European car manufacturer to enable the upsell of insurance contracts throughout Europe. These deals are starting relatively small from an ARR perspective, but have meaningful upside as these initiatives grow.

InsuranceSuite Cloud 還被選為 2 個令人興奮的新建項目，這些項目服務於計劃在銷售點嵌入汽車保險的大型汽車製造商。其中第一個是隸屬於通用汽車的 OnStar Insurance。第二筆交易是與一家大型合作夥伴和歐洲汽車製造商達成的，以在整個歐洲進行保險合同的追加銷售。從 ARR 的角度來看，這些交易的起步相對較小，但隨著這些舉措的發展，它們具有有意義的上行空間。

And finally, I was thrilled to see our team plant Guidewire Cloud flags in Japan and Brazil. Saison Automobile & Fire Insurance has become our first cloud customer in Japan by selecting ClaimCenter Cloud to replace an in-house-built legacy system. We now have the opportunity to demonstrate the success of cloud in this important insurance market and drive continued expansion and modernization in Japan.

最後，我很高興看到我們的團隊在日本和巴西種植 Guidewire Cloud 旗幟。 Saison Automobile & Fire Insurance 通過選擇 ClaimCenter Cloud 來替換內部構建的遺留系統，成為我們在日本的第一個雲客戶。我們現在有機會展示雲在這個重要的保險市場上的成功，並推動日本的持續擴張和現代化。

Turning to cloud deployment activity. We had 7 more go-lives on Guidewire Cloud in the fourth quarter. A Tier 2 U.S.-based specialty insurer serving niche property, casualty and surety markets deployed ClaimCenter on the Guidewire Cloud platform. This project was delivered on time and at budget and has enabled them to update their implementation to be more aligned with our out-of-the-box configuration.

轉向雲部署活動。第四季度，我們在 Guidewire Cloud 上又上線了 7 次。一家服務於利基財產、傷亡和擔保市場的美國二級專業保險公司在 Guidewire Cloud 平台上部署了 ClaimCenter。該項目按預算按時交付，使他們能夠更新其實施，以更符合我們的開箱即用配置。

They've also enhanced their end user and employee experiences and freed up valuable IT resources to support a new focus on innovation and business value. A large Tier 1 went live with ClaimCenter on Guidewire Cloud Platform, and this was a successful greenfield implementation and is a great proof point for us as it demonstrates a Tier 1 carrier's ability to leverage out-of-the-box features and functionality to support innovative business initiatives quickly.

他們還增強了最終用戶和員工體驗，並釋放了寶貴的 IT 資源，以支持對創新和業務價值的新關注。大型 Tier 1 在 Guidewire 雲平台上與 ClaimCenter 一起上線，這是一次成功的綠地實施，對我們來說是一個很好的證明，因為它展示了 Tier 1 運營商利用開箱即用的特性和功能來支持快速創新業務計劃。

Finally, Church Mutual Insurance Company, a 125-year-old insurer operating in all 50 states, went live with ClaimCenter on Guidewire Cloud Platform. This project was delivered on time and at budget and has enabled more out-of-the-box configuration, reducing technical debt and leaner workflows by eliminating manual processes. This has enhanced end user and employee experience and allows their IT organization to focus on innovation and driving business value going forward.

最後，Church Mutual Insurance Company，一家擁有 125 年曆史的保險公司，在全美 50 個州開展業務，在 Guidewire 雲平台上與 ClaimCenter 一起上線。該項目按預算按時交付，並啟用了更多開箱即用的配置，通過消除手動流程減少了技術債務和更精簡的工作流程。這增強了最終用戶和員工的體驗，並使他們的 IT 組織能夠專注於創新和推動業務價值向前發展。

P&C core modernizations are often incredibly complex. Though we are generally thrilled with the progress we have made on our cloud programs, we do have a few of our early cloud projects that are more complicated in taking longer than we originally anticipated, and this does show up in our services margins.

P&C 核心現代化通常非常複雜。儘管我們通常對我們在雲計劃上取得的進展感到興奮，但我們確實有一些早期的雲項目比我們最初預期的要花費更長的時間，這確實體現在我們的服務利潤中。

As I have said previously, we are committed to the success of every customer and intend to invest what is needed to ensure their success. While we are seeing higher expenses in some of these programs, I'm confident that we will see better efficiency and predictability going forward.

正如我之前所說，我們致力於每位客戶的成功，並打算進行必要的投資以確保他們的成功。雖然我們看到其中一些項目的費用更高，但我相信我們會看到更高的效率和可預測性。

There is, of course, a benefit in all this complexity in that it establishes tremendously valuable and durable relationships. The financial measure of this durability is reflected in an overall gross ARR attrition rate below 2% and core InsuranceSuite gross attrition of approximately 1%, excluding the impact of Russian customer attrition. This is a testament to the mission-critical nature of the solutions we provide.

當然，所有這些複雜性的好處在於它建立了非常有價值和持久的關係。這種持久性的財務指標反映在低於 2% 的總體 ARR 總流失率和大約 1% 的核心 InsuranceSuite 總流失率（不包括俄羅斯客戶流失的影響）。這證明了我們提供的解決方案的關鍵任務性質。

Turning to our ecosystem. SI partners continue to play a critical part in many of the cloud projects underway with nearly 60 Guidewire Cloud projects in Q4, including SIs. It was great to see continued expansion in this community through the fourth quarter. We finished with nearly 19,000 Guidewire consultants from the largest SIs in the world, an increase of 38% year-over-year. And the number of cloud-certified consultants increased 122% year-over-year to over 5,100.

轉向我們的生態系統。 SI 合作夥伴繼續在許多正在進行的雲項目中發揮關鍵作用，第四季度有近 60 個 Guidewire 雲項目，包括 SI。很高興看到這個社區在第四季度繼續擴張。我們聘請了來自世界上最大的 SI 的近 19,000 名 Guidewire 顧問，同比增長 38%。雲認證顧問的數量同比增長 122%，達到 5,100 多名。

We also added 13 new solution partners to the Guidewire Marketplace and now have over 160 solution partners on our platform. We are fortunate to serve a big, resilient industry that is steadily going through a significant digital transformation. With a singular focus on this industry for the last 20 years, we occupy a market-leading position marked not just by the usage and resilience of our core solution, but also by the cloud leadership we have now established.

我們還在 Guidewire Marketplace 中增加了 13 個新的解決方案合作夥伴，現在我們的平台上有超過 160 個解決方案合作夥伴。我們很幸運能夠為一個正在穩步經歷重大數字化轉型的大型、有彈性的行業提供服務。在過去的 20 年裡，我們一直專注於這個行業，因此我們佔據了市場領先地位，這不僅體現在我們核心解決方案的使用和彈性，還體現在我們現在建立的雲領導地位。

I believe we are poised to establish a once-in-a-generation cloud-based technology platform that will serve as a source of innovation for customers while delivering durable and profitable growth for our stakeholders. I'm excited to share more about our platform in October when we host our Analyst Day on October 6 at our headquarters and then at Guidewire Connections, which will take place this year from October 23 to the 26.

我相信我們已經準備好建立一個千載難逢的基於雲的技術平台，該平台將成為客戶的創新源泉，同時為我們的利益相關者帶來持久且可盈利的增長。我很高興能在 10 月與我們分享更多有關我們平台的信息，屆時我們將在 10 月 6 日在我們的總部和 Guidewire Connections 舉辦分析師日，該日將於今年 10 月 23 日至 26 日舉行。

I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

我現在將把電話轉給 Jeff。

Thanks, Mike. Fourth quarter ARR ended at $683 million, up 17% year-over-year on a constant currency basis and ahead of our expectations. As a reminder, we measure ARR on a constant currency basis throughout the year and then update ARR for year-end FX rates. Making this update negatively impacted ARR by $19 million, resulting in ARR of $664 million.

謝謝，邁克。第四季度的 ARR 為 6.83 億美元，按固定匯率計算同比增長 17%，超出我們的預期。提醒一下，我們全年以固定貨幣為基礎衡量 ARR，然後更新年末匯率的 ARR。進行此更新對 ARR 產生了 1900 萬美元的負面影響，導致 ARR 為 6.64 億美元。

Reflecting on this outperformance, especially as compared to our expectations coming into the year, we saw 3 trends drive this result: first, continued robust demand for our cloud products as reflected by the 40 cloud deals executed this year; second, healthy sales performance for deals that converted into incremental ARR right away as opposed to large ramp deals that we saw in prior years; and third, our gross ARR attrition was better than our expectations.

回顧這一優異表現，尤其是與我們對今年的預期相比，我們看到了三個趨勢推動了這一結果：首先，對我們雲產品的持續強勁需求，這反映在今年執行的 40 筆雲交易中；其次，與我們在前幾年看到的大型坡道交易相比，立即轉化為增量 ARR 的交易的銷售業績健康；第三，我們的總 ARR 損耗好於我們的預期。

Total cloud ARR, which includes ARR for all of our cloud products and for customers that have contracted to move to the cloud, grew 50% year-over-year and comprised 53% of total ARR. Fully ramped ARR, which is defined as the fully ramped annual price outlined in the customer contract, grew 14% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. This growth rate was lower than overall ARR as we saw less ramp activity in fiscal 2022. As Mike noted, we saw less large cloud migration activity accompanied with large contractual commitments for future year fees at contract signing.

總雲 ARR（包括我們所有云產品和已簽約遷移到雲的客戶的 ARR）同比增長 50%，佔總 ARR 的 53%。全面提升的 ARR 定義為客戶合同中列出的全面提升的年度價格，按固定匯率計算，同比增長 14%。這一增長率低於整體 ARR，因為我們在 2022 財年看到了較少的斜坡活動。正如 Mike 所指出的，我們看到較少的大型雲遷移活動伴隨著在合同簽署時對未來年度費用的大量合同承諾。

Additionally, much of the large Tier 1 migration activity is still out there to be sold. We did see healthy new customer wins and new programs at existing customers. And in many cases, we expect these deals to grow significantly, but this growth is not committed.

此外，大部分大型 1 級遷移活動仍然有待出售。我們確實在現有客戶中看到了健康的新客戶勝利和新計劃。在許多情況下，我們預計這些交易將顯著增長，但這種增長並未承諾。

Total revenue for the year was $813 million, ahead of our expectations due to stronger performance across all components of revenue. Cloud strength continues to be visible in subscription revenue, which was $259 million, up 54% year-over-year. Subscription revenue also benefited from much better deal linearity in fiscal 2022 when compared with the prior year where over 50% of our bookings activity took place in Q4. Subscription and support revenue was $344 million, up 36% year-over-year.

全年總收入為 8.13 億美元，超出了我們的預期，因為所有收入組成部分的表現都更加強勁。雲實力在訂閱收入中繼續可見，為 2.59 億美元，同比增長 54%。與上一年相比，訂閱收入也受益於 2022 財年更好的交易線性度，上一年我們超過 50% 的預訂活動發生在第四季度。訂閱和支持收入為 3.44 億美元，同比增長 36%。

License revenue was $259 million, down 15% when compared to last year. License revenue declines were the result of upfront revenue recognition of multiyear term licenses sold in prior years that had no corresponding revenue in fiscal 2022 and term license customers migrating to the cloud. Services revenue was $210 million, up 12%. Services revenue has benefited from ongoing increases in the number of cloud implementation programs.

許可收入為 2.59 億美元，與去年相比下降 15%。許可證收入下降的原因是前期銷售的多年期許可證在 2022 財年沒有相應收入，以及遷移到雲的長期許可證客戶的前期收入確認。服務收入為 2.1 億美元，增長 12%。服務收入受益於雲實施計劃數量的持續增加。

Turning to profitability for the fiscal year, which we will discuss on a non-GAAP basis. Gross profit was $398 million. Overall gross margin was 49% compared to 56% a year ago. Subscription and support gross margin was 44%, a modest uptick over last year, driven by margin improvement on our subscription line.

轉向本財年的盈利能力，我們將在非公認會計原則的基礎上進行討論。毛利潤為3.98億美元。總體毛利率為 49%，而一年前為 56%。訂閱和支持毛利率為 44%，比去年略有上升，這得益於我們訂閱線的利潤率提高。

Services gross margin was negative 2% compared to positive 5% a year ago. To meet the high demand for cloud and to drive early success, we have made investments alongside our early cloud customers, and we have invested in more subcontractors impacting services gross margins. Additionally, some of these projects have extended longer than originally anticipated. As Mike noted, our commitment to customer success has been a hallmark of Guidewire's success, and we intend to maintain that commitment as the industry shifts to the cloud.

服務毛利率為負 2%，而一年前為正 5%。為了滿足對雲的高需求並推動早期成功，我們與早期的雲客戶一起進行了投資，並且我們投資了更多影響服務毛利率的分包商。此外，其中一些項目的延期時間比最初預期的要長。正如 Mike 所指出的，我們對客戶成功的承諾一直是 Guidewire 成功的標誌，隨著行業轉向雲計算，我們打算保持這一承諾。

Operating income was negative $45 million, better than our guidance range due to higher-than-expected total revenue, partially offset by lower services margin. Operating cash flow ended the year at negative $38 million, below our expectations due to the timing of collections and higher subcontractor costs. We experienced stronger-than-normal collections in the first 10 business days of August just after our fiscal year-end where we collected almost $80 million. At the end of the quarter -- we ended the quarter with $1.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments.

營業收入為負 4500 萬美元，優於我們的指導範圍，原因是總收入高於預期，但部分被服務利潤率下降所抵消。由於收款的時間安排和較高的分包商成本，營業現金流年底為負 3800 萬美元，低於我們的預期。在財政年度結束後的 8 月前 10 個工作日，我們的收款比正常情況強，我們收了近 8000 萬美元。在本季度末——我們在本季度末擁有 12 億美元的現金、現金等價物和投資。

Now let me turn to our outlook. For fiscal 2023, we expect ARR of $745 million to $760 million, representing 13% constant currency growth at the midpoint. Total revenue for the year is expected to be between $885 million and $895 million. We expect that subscription revenue will be approximately $340 million, representing 31% growth.

現在讓我談談我們的前景。對於 2023 財年，我們預計 ARR 為 7.45 億美元至 7.60 億美元，代表中點的 13% 不變貨幣增長。今年的總收入預計在 8.85 億美元至 8.95 億美元之間。我們預計訂閱收入將約為 3.4 億美元，增長 31%。

Subscription revenue is moderating off the 54% growth resulting from 2 factors that make fiscal '23 a difficult compare with fiscal '22. First, we experienced less large ramp deal activity in Q4 fiscal '22 when compared with fiscal '21. Ramp deals are where customers commit to escalating annual subscription fees in the contract. Large multiyear ramps have a big impact on near-term subscription revenue that you recognize -- sorry, large multiyear ramps have a big impact on near-term subscription revenue given that you recognize the total contract value ratably over the committed term. A number of the deals executed in Q4 have significant growth potential, but this growth was not committed in the ramp schedule and the contracts.

訂閱收入正在緩和 54% 的增長，這兩個因素使 23 財年與 22 財年相比變得困難。首先，與 21 財年相比，我們在 22 財年第四季度經歷的大型坡道交易活動較少。斜坡交易是客戶承諾在合同中提高年度訂閱費的地方。大型多年期增長對您認可的近期訂閱收入產生重大影響 - 抱歉，鑑於您在承諾期限內按比例確認總合同價值，大型多年期增長對近期訂閱收入產生重大影響。第四季度執行的許多交易具有顯著的增長潛力，但這種增長並未在斜坡時間表和合同中得到承諾。

Second, we experienced better linearity of sales in fiscal '22 when compared with fiscal '21. In fiscal '21, we experienced over 50% of our bookings in Q4, which resulted in little revenue in fiscal '21 and a big step-up from those deals in fiscal '22. Then in fiscal '22, we saw much better linearity, which positively impacted fiscal '22 subscription revenue but resulted in a step-up in fiscal '23 that is less than what we experienced last year.

其次，與 21 財年相比，我們在 22 財年經歷了更好的銷售線性度。在 21 財年，我們在第四季度經歷了超過 50% 的預訂，這導致 21 財年的收入很少，而在 22 財年的這些交易中實現了大幅增長。然後在 22 財年，我們看到了更好的線性度，這對 22 財年的訂閱收入產生了積極影響，但導致 23 財年的增長低於我們去年的經歷。

Support revenue will decline by about $7 million year-over-year as a result of the continued migration of our installed base to the cloud. Support revenue attaches to term license customers. For cloud customers, support activities are included in the subscription fee.

由於我們的安裝基礎持續遷移到雲，支持收入將同比下降約 700 萬美元。支持收入附加到期限許可客戶。對於雲客戶，支持活動包含在訂閱費中。

License revenue is expected to continue to decline due to steady progress on cloud migrations. However, license revenue declines will not be as extreme as what we saw this past year as many of the multiyear deals signed in fiscal '20 and fiscal '21 will start to renew annually again. Additionally, we did not execute many multiyear term license deals in fiscal '22.

由於雲遷移的穩步進展，許可證收入預計將繼續下降。然而，許可收入的下降不會像我們在過去一年看到的那樣極端，因為在 20 財年和 21 財年簽署的許多多年期交易將再次開始每年續簽。此外，我們在 22 財年沒有執行許多多年期許可交易。

Finally, as per our typical approach, we have not modeled in any positive impact of new term deals or renewals of longer duration than our standard terms. Services revenue is expected to be approximately $220 million.

最後，根據我們的典型方法，我們沒有模擬新條款交易或比我們的標準條款更長期限的續約的任何積極影響。服務收入預計約為 2.2 億美元。

Before turning to our outlook on margins, I want to let you all know that we are adjusting how we allocate certain expenses to better align with our business practices. Our updated approach is more aligned with many of our peers.

在談到我們對利潤率的展望之前，我想讓你們都知道，我們正在調整我們分配某些費用的方式，以更好地與我們的業務實踐保持一致。我們更新的方法與我們的許多同行更加一致。

Starting in Q1, we will expense headcount-related costs for IT, payroll and procurement in G&A as opposed to our prior methodology of allocating these costs out to other expense lines. Historically, our IT personnel located in a specific country were allocated to the departments that had operations in that particular country. This made sense when IT was primarily co-located with the functions they supported, but it is no longer appropriate in a model where we are creating shared IT service functions.

從第一季度開始，我們將在 G&A 中支出與員工人數相關的 IT、工資和採購成本，而不是我們之前將這些成本分配到其他支出項目的方法。從歷史上看，我們位於特定國家/地區的 IT 人員被分配到在該特定國家/地區開展業務的部門。當 IT 主要與他們支持的功能位於同一地點時，這是有道理的，但它不再適合我們創建共享 IT 服務功能的模型。

As our workforce has become more distributed, it was clear that we needed to adjust our approach. We expect this adjustment to have approximately 2 percentage points of upward impact to overall gross margins. And we will see a positive impact to all components of gross profit, with the exception of license gross profit, which never had much head count associated with it, and as a result, no real allocation impact. Additionally, G&A as a percent of revenue will increase by approximately 5 percentage points in fiscal 2023. We will provide a reconciliation between the 2 approaches in our first quarter 10-Q.

隨著我們的員工隊伍變得更加分散，很明顯我們需要調整我們的方法。我們預計此次調整將對整體毛利率產生約 2 個百分點的上行影響。我們將看到對毛利潤的所有組成部分的積極影響，除了許可證毛利潤，它從來沒有與它相關的人數太多，因此，沒有真正的分配影響。此外，在 2023 財年，G&A 佔收入的百分比將增加約 5 個百分點。我們將在第一季度 10-Q 中提供這兩種方法之間的對賬。

With that in mind, we expect total gross margins for the year to be approximately 50%. Improving subscription margins are offset by overall revenue mix shift away from high-margin license and support revenue. Subscription and support gross margins are expected to be approximately 46%. Finally, we expect services margins to be in the mid-single digits. This is expected to benefit approximately 5 percentage points from the previously mentioned allocation change to our income statement presentation. Additionally, we expect services margins to be higher in the second half of the year as we continue to rely on higher-than-normal subcontractors in Q1 and some of Q2.

考慮到這一點，我們預計今年的總毛利率約為 50%。訂閱利潤的提高被整體收入組合從高利潤許可和支持收入的轉變所抵消。訂閱和支持毛利率預計約為 46%。最後，我們預計服務利潤率將達到中個位數。預計這將從前面提到的損益表列報分配變化中受益約 5 個百分點。此外，由於我們在第一季度和第二季度繼續依賴高於正常水平的分包商，我們預計下半年的服務利潤率會更高。

With respect to operating income, we expect an operating loss of between $30 million and $20 million for the fiscal year. We expect growth in operating expenses to be muted in fiscal 2023, and our outlook assumes approximately $4.5 million in long-term incentive compensation that will transition from RSUs to cash LTI and approximately $2 million in restructuring costs that will hit in Q1.

關於營業收入，我們預計本財年的營業虧損在 3000 萬美元至 2000 萬美元之間。我們預計 2023 財年運營費用的增長將放緩，我們的展望假設約 450 萬美元的長期激勵薪酬將從 RSU 轉變為現金 LTI，以及約 200 萬美元的重組成本將在第一季度出現。

Cash flow from operations in fiscal 2023 is expected to be between $50 million and $80 million. Our CapEx expectations for the year are between $20 million and $25 million, including $14 million in capitalized software development costs.

預計 2023 財年的運營現金流將在 5000 萬美元至 8000 萬美元之間。我們對今年的資本支出預期在 2000 萬美元到 2500 萬美元之間，其中包括 1400 萬美元的資本化軟件開發成本。

Before turning to our Q1 outlook, let me make a comment about our target model expectations. We will address this in more detail at our Analyst Day, but wanted to comment quickly here. First, we don't expect any changes to our long-term model expectations. With respect to the fiscal 2025 targets outlined in our last Analyst Day, I have a couple of comments.

在轉向我們的第一季度展望之前，讓我對我們的目標模型預期發表評論。我們將在分析師日更詳細地討論這個問題，但想在這裡快速發表評論。首先，我們預計我們的長期模型預期不會發生任何變化。關於我們在上一個分析師日中概述的 2025 財年目標，我有幾點意見。

First, we still expect to achieve $1 billion in ARR by fiscal '25, although FX impacts we are currently experiencing have put this target under a bit of pressure -- under a bit more pressure than we were expecting at the start of last year. Second, we are moderating our near-term expectations to align to the buying patterns that Mike discussed. Specifically, smaller upfront commitments will cause near-term subscription revenue growth to be a bit slower than our expectations last year. This is because we ratably recognize total contract value over the committed period for subscription arrangements. So as commitments decline, then we pull forward less subscription revenue into earlier years of the arrangement.

首先，我們仍然預計到 25 財年將實現 10 億美元的 ARR，儘管我們目前正在經歷的外匯影響使這一目標面臨一些壓力——比我們去年年初預期的壓力更大。其次，我們正在調整我們的近期預期，以符合邁克討論的購買模式。具體而言，較小的前期承諾將導致近期訂閱收入增長略低於我們去年的預期。這是因為我們在認購安排的承諾期內按比例確認總合同價值。因此，隨著承諾的減少，我們會將更少的訂閱收入提前到安排的前幾年。

Our overall expense assumptions have shifted a bit. As such, our gross margins and operating margin expectations are now a couple percentage points lower than our prior expectations, and subscription and support margins in fiscal '25 are now expected to be in the low 60% range versus prior expectations in the mid- to upper 60% range.

我們的總體費用假設發生了一些變化。因此，我們的毛利率和營業利潤率預期現在比我們之前的預期低幾個百分點，並且現在預計 25 財年的訂閱和支持利潤率將在 60% 的低範圍內，而之前的預期在中期至上限 60% 範圍。

Finally, I want to reiterate that we are confident in our long-term margin targets and the future cash generation of our business. We have long durable customer relationships. We expect to drive scale benefits over time. And smaller upfront commitments do not negatively impact the longer-term revenue potential as we expect these customers to grow as they are successful with their cloud programs.

最後，我想重申，我們對我們的長期利潤率目標和我們業務的未來現金產生充滿信心。我們擁有長期持久的客戶關係。我們希望隨著時間的推移推動規模效益。較小的前期承諾不會對長期收入潛力產生負面影響，因為我們預計這些客戶會隨著他們的雲計劃取得成功而增長。

Our business is rapidly evolving. We always want to provide you with our best perspective in a timely fashion, and we'll certainly give more detail at our Analyst Day.

我們的業務正在迅速發展。我們始終希望及時為您提供我們最好的觀點，我們肯定會在分析師日提供更多細節。

Finally, let me address our outlook for Q1. We expect ARR to finish between $667 million and $670 million. We expect total revenue of between $190 million and $195 million. We expect subscription revenue of approximately $78 million and services revenue of approximately $55 million.

最後，讓我談談我們對第一季度的展望。我們預計 ARR 將在 6.67 億美元至 6.7 億美元之間完成。我們預計總收入在 1.9 億美元至 1.95 億美元之間。我們預計訂閱收入約為 7800 萬美元，服務收入約為 5500 萬美元。

Services margins are expected to continue to be under pressure in Q1 as we rely on higher-than-normal subcontractors, but this is not expected to persist throughout the year. Services margins in Q1 are expected to be negative 8% to 10%. We expect an operating loss of between $45 million and $40 million in Q1.

由於我們依賴高於正常水平的分包商，預計服務利潤率將在第一季度繼續承壓，但預計這種情況不會持續到全年。第一季度的服務利潤率預計為負 8% 至 10%。我們預計第一季度的運營虧損在 4500 萬美元至 4000 萬美元之間。

In summary, we are proud of what the team was able to accomplish in fiscal '22. We feel very confident in our market position to help the insurance industry thrive.

總之，我們為團隊在 22 財年所取得的成就感到自豪。我們對幫助保險業蓬勃發展的市場地位充滿信心。

Operator, you may now open the call for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開問題電話了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Ken Wong from Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自奧本海默的 Ken Wong。

Mike, I wanted to just kind of take your pulse on the commentary on the demand environment. When thinking about the smaller upfront deals, the flatter ramps, fewer migration, I guess what would you characterize as maybe macro-specific versus maybe the insurance market? And then to the extent that Guidewire -- any execution dynamics that Guidewire has to sort through, how should we think about kind of what the kind of the puts and takes are in terms of that demand shift?

邁克，我想了解一下您對需求環境的評論。在考慮較小的前期交易、更平坦的坡道、更少的遷移時，我猜你認為宏觀特定與保險市場的特點是什麼？然後就 Guidewire 而言——Guidewire 必須整理的任何執行動態，我們應該如何考慮根據需求變化考慮什麼樣的看跌期權？

Ken, thanks a lot for the question. First thing is we're real happy with the deal count, the ARR activity. In a lot of ways, this was a super, super quarter for us and continues the sort of what I would describe almost as the sort of inevitable march towards establishing Guidewire Cloud in the industry.

肯，非常感謝這個問題。首先，我們對交易數量和 ARR 活動感到非常滿意。在很多方面，這對我們來說是一個超級、超級的季度，並且延續了我幾乎將其描述為在行業中建立 Guidewire Cloud 的必然進展。

As I tried to call out, we are seeing this sort of, I don't know, buying behavior or propensity to request these sort of structures where they get started smaller. And I think in a lot of ways, this lines up to buying patterns in other cloud segments in enterprise software, which might be a healthy thing. And as long as we execute on the programs, those deals will grow. That ARR or that future ARR is there. It just has to be delivered over time as the programs evolve, as the lines of business expand. And I think we have a very, very solid track record to be able to say that we expect that future ARR and that future revenue to come in.

正如我試圖指出的那樣，我們看到了這種我不知道的購買行為或要求這種結構的傾向，它們開始時規模較小。而且我認為在很多方面，這與企業軟件中其他雲領域的購買模式一致，這可能是一件健康的事情。只要我們執行這些計劃，這些交易就會增長。那個 ARR 或那個未來的 ARR 就在那裡。隨著程序的發展，業務範圍的擴大，它只需要隨著時間的推移交付。而且我認為我們有一個非常非常可靠的記錄，可以說我們預計未來的 ARR 和未來的收入會到來。

With respect to migrations, I think these are just really complicated big decisions that these companies are making. We continue to make a lot of progress working with existing customers around what they'd like to see from us on our cloud platform and when it makes sense for them to make that decision. I continue to say every quarter, and I firmly believe it will end up being true, that this is a matter of when, not if. We're building a platform that's going to support each and every one of those existing customers. And so all that demand is out there for us to be able to execute on as we proceed.

關於遷移，我認為這些只是這些公司正在做出的非常複雜的重大決定。我們繼續與現有客戶合作，圍繞他們希望在我們的雲平台上從我們那裡看到的內容以及他們何時做出該決定有意義，取得了很大進展。我每個季度都會繼續說，我堅信最終會是真的，這是一個時間問題，而不是如果。我們正在構建一個平台，該平台將支持每一位現有客戶。因此，所有這些需求都存在，讓我們能夠在繼續進行時繼續執行。

So I look at this as much, much more of an insurance dynamic than I think a macro dynamic, at least that's what I'm seeing. But we're just -- so hopefully, that color gives you a bit of perspective into how we saw the quarter and how we sort of expect demand to play out as we proceed into this fiscal.

因此，我將其視為一種保險動態，而不是我認為的宏觀動態，至少這是我所看到的。但我們只是 - 所以希望這種顏色能讓您對我們如何看待本季度以及我們在進入本財年時預計需求將如何發揮作用有所了解。

Got it. Got it. And then maybe a quick follow-up for you, Jeff. I realize some of this probably gets addressed at Investor Day. But as we think about kind of the margin trajectory, I mean just based on outlook for next year, it does feel like we're at a -- this year was the trough. Just wanted to make sure we kind of confirm that and if there's kind of anything that you're anticipating that maybe could shift that possibility.

知道了。知道了。傑夫，然後可能會為您提供快速跟進。我意識到其中一些可能會在投資者日得到解決。但是當我們考慮利潤率軌跡時，我的意思是僅基於明年的前景，感覺我們確實處於 - 今年是低谷。只是想確保我們確認這一點，如果有任何你期待的事情可能會改變這種可能性。

Yes. No, we'll certainly go into more detail at Analyst Day. I think the one thing we are calling out for you all today is some of the deal size impact that's associated with these ramps. Our model previously assumed that we would see similar patterns this year that we saw in prior years. And that does have the effect in pulling forward some subscription revenue, right? Because as the deal ramps over a 5-year period, you then total contract value out that and recognize it ratably.

是的。不，我們肯定會在分析師日更詳細地介紹。我認為我們今天為大家呼籲的一件事是與這些斜坡相關的一些交易規模影響。我們的模型之前假設我們今年會看到與往年相似的模式。這確實會增加一些訂閱收入，對吧？因為隨著交易在 5 年的時間裡逐漸增加，您可以將合同總價值減去並按比例確認。

And so that dynamic can have an impact on our model. So we're flagging that. That's embedded in our guidance. So that's all -- those shifts are embedded in our guidance. So nothing else beyond that phenomenon that we're seeing, and we'll help people understand that a little better at Analyst Day as we go into some of the details.

所以這種動態會對我們的模型產生影響。所以我們要標記它。這已包含在我們的指導中。所以這就是全部 - 這些轉變嵌入在我們的指導中。因此，除了我們所看到的這種現象之外，別無其他，我們將在分析師日深入了解一些細節時幫助人們更好地理解這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt VanVliet with BTIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Matt VanVliet。

Maybe looking at performance across different international areas of the business. You highlighted a couple of key wins, both in Europe and Asia, and I think you highlighted Brazil as well. So curious if you're starting to see those markets or those regions sort of pick back up after some slower times previously. And then any commentary around the North American market as well would be helpful.

也許可以查看不同國際業務領域的表現。你強調了在歐洲和亞洲的幾個關鍵勝利，我認為你也強調了巴西。很好奇你是否開始看到這些市場或那些地區在之前的一些緩慢時期之後有所回升。然後對北美市場的任何評論也會有所幫助。

Thanks a lot for the question, Matt. I'm glad you pointed that out. We were -- obviously, Guidewire has had a lot of success internationally. And so thinking about establishing a cloud platform and transitioning that success to this new cloud platform, you want to be able to do that successfully internationally. That was absolutely part of the strategy of the company.

非常感謝這個問題，馬特。我很高興你指出了這一點。我們——很明顯，Guidewire 在國際上取得了很大的成功。所以考慮建立一個雲平台並將成功轉移到這個新的雲平台，你希望能夠在國際上成功地做到這一點。這絕對是公司戰略的一部分。

And so this quarter, especially this deal in Japan, gives me and I think the whole company just a lot of confidence that we are headed in the absolute right direction. That approach we took to the platform and the capability and resiliency and security and the infrastructure location of these data centers on and on and on is really complicated. But getting this first win in Japan, I think -- and Brazil allows us to sort of clearly establish the idea that this is going to be an international cloud platform success story. So we're very, very happy with those events.

所以這個季度，尤其是在日本的這筆交易，給了我和我認為整個公司很大的信心，我們正朝著絕對正確的方向前進。我們對平台、能力、彈性和安全性以及這些數據中心的基礎設施位置採取的這種方法真的很複雜。但我認為，在日本獲得第一次勝利——而巴西讓我們明確地確立了這樣的想法，即這將成為一個國際雲平台的成功故事。所以我們對這些事件非常非常滿意。

In terms of; whether or not it points to a change in the pace of the business, I think things play out slowly, and we'll see how things go. Certainly helps, doesn't hurt, certainly helps. And I think as we've said many, many, many times, this is -- the success of our sales have a lot to do with establishing success stories and other customers following buying patterns and implementation patterns that we can successfully establish. So from that perspective, we're very, very happy with it.

按照;無論這是否表明業務節奏的變化，我認為事情進展緩慢，我們將拭目以待。當然有幫助，不傷害，當然有幫助。而且我認為正如我們已經說過很多很多次的那樣，這是 - 我們的銷售成功與建立成功故事和其他客戶遵循我們可以成功建立的購買模式和實施模式有很大關係。所以從這個角度來看，我們對此非常非常滿意。

Just in terms of you asked also about the climate situation in the U.S., this deal that we did with OnStar, we're really excited about it. It gives us an ability to align to what we think might be a different channel for buying auto insurance and excited to partner with that organization as they execute on their business strategy.

就您而言，您還詢問了美國的氣候狀況，我們與 OnStar 達成的這筆交易，我們對此感到非常興奮。它使我們能夠與我們認為可能是購買汽車保險的不同渠道保持一致，並很高興在該組織執行業務戰略時與他們合作。

And then more broadly in the U.S., we just see the pattern sort of steadily continuing to execute. We're going to see about a fair split between net new and migration activity. We're going to see -- we expect to continue to see greater than 90% of bookings activity being cloud. And kind of just -- kind of hate to say business as usual because it never is, but just expect that we'll continue to make progress and execute in the U.S. as we have for the past couple of years. So hopefully, that helps.

然後在美國更廣泛地說，我們只是看到這種模式在穩步繼續執行。我們將看到淨新增和遷移活動之間的公平分配。我們將看到——我們預計將繼續看到超過 90% 的預訂活動是雲端的。有點 - 有點討厭說一切照舊，因為它從來都不是，但只是期望我們會像過去幾年一樣繼續在美國取得進展和執行。所以希望，這會有所幫助。

Yes, very helpful. And then not to nitpick too much on sort of the deal sizes or, Jeff, to your point around maybe the upfront commitments not being as encompassing as some of your past ones, should we think about that as maybe just policy centers included today or just a single line of business for migrating to the cloud is included in assuming that you execute on that, in the past, you've seen the expansion into other areas? Or is there some sort of greater limitation around what they're contracting today and you really need to go out and sort of rewin the other areas?

是的，很有幫助。然後不要過多地挑剔交易規模，或者，傑夫，就你的觀點而言，前期承諾可能不像你過去的一些承諾那樣全面，我們應該認為這可能只是今天包括的政策中心還是只是遷移到雲的單一業務線包含在假設您執行該業務線的情況下，在過去，您已經看到擴展到其他領域？或者他們今天的合同是否有某種更大的限制，你真的需要走出去重新贏得其他領域？

Yes. No, I don't think -- I think there's a variety of things that are going on. We are certainly seeing people take maybe a line of business or take a module rather than going for, especially in a migration context, the full suite. So we are seeing a bit of that.

是的。不，我不認為——我認為有各種各樣的事情正在發生。我們當然看到人們可能會選擇一個業務線或一個模塊，而不是選擇完整的套件，尤其是在遷移環境中。所以我們看到了一點。

The deal that Mike just referenced, OnStar, which is a super interesting one, they have big plans. In prior years, we may have seen some of those plans negotiated upfront and kind of embedded into the contract. But this one, we're going to see how that one plays out, and we feel very confident that they will be successful and are excited to be attached to that success.

邁克剛剛提到的交易，OnStar，這是一個非常有趣的交易，他們有很大的計劃。在前幾年，我們可能已經看到其中一些計劃是預先談判並嵌入到合同中的。但是這個，我們將看到那個結果如何，我們對他們會成功感到非常有信心，並且很高興能依附於這一成功。

I've often said that you can generally capture more area under the curve if you are willing to invest in a success-based pricing model, and I think that, that will play out for us over time. But the way the revenue gets recognized, it does have a meaningful impact in our model as customers were making slightly bigger commitments in prior years.

我經常說，如果您願意投資基於成功的定價模型，您通常可以在曲線下佔據更多區域，我認為隨著時間的推移，這將對我們產生影響。但收入的確認方式確實對我們的模型產生了有意義的影響，因為客戶在前幾年做出了稍大的承諾。

So it's nothing that gives me pause about any commentary on the pace of -- as this industry starts to shift to the cloud. But the commitments we're seeing at the initial contract signings were a little bit lower than what we expected, and we've adjusted our models to account for that to build a bit more conservatism into them.

因此，當這個行業開始轉向雲計算時，沒有什麼能讓我對任何關於速度的評論停下來。但是我們在最初的合同簽署中看到的承諾比我們預期的要低一些，我們已經調整了我們的模型以考慮到這一點，以便在其中建立更多的保守主義。

Our next question comes from the line of Parker Lane with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自Stifel 的Parker Lane 線。

You've mentioned in the past a lot of investments alongside the cloud customers that are sort of impacting margins here in the near term. When I think about subcontracting in some of those fixed fee services arrangements, when should we expect that to fall out of the model? I know, Jeff, you mentioned that it shouldn't be a full year phenomenon. But is it maybe a quarter more of an impact? Or is that a multi-quarter situation that we'll see play out next year?

您在過去提到過很多與雲客戶一起的投資，這些投資在短期內會影響這裡的利潤率。當我考慮在某些固定費用服務安排中進行分包時，我們應該在什麼時候期望它會脫離模型？我知道，傑夫，你提到這不應該是一整年的現象。但它可能會產生四分之一以上的影響嗎？或者這是我們將在明年看到的多季度情況？

Yes. I think you're going to see it certainly in Q1. You're going to continue to see it a bit in Q2. And as we look to the back half of the year, we have very well-defined, concrete plans to address it. And so we do feel confident that as we exit the year, we'll be at a much more normalized services margin. We are no longer entertaining fixed fee arrangements. That was something that was important for us to tackle with some of these early cloud customers that are moving away from that.

是的。我認為您肯定會在第一季度看到它。您將在第二季度繼續看到它。展望下半年，我們有非常明確的具體計劃來解決這個問題。因此，我們確實有信心，隨著今年的結束，我們的服務利潤率將更加正常化。我們不再接受固定費用安排。這對我們來說很重要，要解決這些早期雲客戶中的一些正在遠離它的問題。

And we feel much more confident with what we've learned over the last 24 to 18 months in our estimation models and have identified some of the issues and problem areas that arise in these programs. So we feel like we're just much better able to estimate total program costs and work with our customers in that fashion.

我們對過去 24 到 18 個月在我們的估計模型中學到的東西更有信心，並且已經確定了這些項目中出現的一些問題和問題領域。所以我們覺得我們能夠更好地估計總計劃成本並以這種方式與我們的客戶合作。

Got it. And then in the context of hiring, I know you've talked about being very pleased with your employee attrition rate. On the new hiring front, is that something you're seeing become a little bit easier as you try to backfill some of these roles to support cloud customers? Or is the environment still as tough as it has been in recent years?

知道了。然後在招聘的背景下，我知道你已經談到對你的員工流失率非常滿意。在新的招聘方面，當您嘗試回填其中一些角色以支持雲客戶時，您看到的事情是否變得容易一些？還是環境仍然像近年來一樣艱難？

The environment is tough, but I'd say, as we look ahead to our headcount plans for next year, we are slowing down our hiring quite significantly. So we don't expect to be adding nearly as much as what you've seen in prior years. And so that's -- the environment for the technical talent that we're looking for remains difficult, but we're not in market as much as we used to be.

環境很艱難，但我想說，在我們展望明年的員工人數計劃時，我們正在顯著放緩招聘速度。因此，我們預計不會像您在前幾年看到的那樣增加。所以這就是我們正在尋找的技術人才的環境仍然很困難，但我們不像以前那樣在市場上。

Our next question comes from the line of Rishi Jaluria with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Rishi Jaluria。

This is Phil Rigby on for Rishi. I wanted to start with 1 question on the idea of lower upfront commitments or softening of demand. Is this a dynamic that you're seeing play out more in one end of the market versus the other? Yes, any color there would be interesting.

這是 Rishi 的 Phil Rigby。我想從 1 個關於降低前期承諾或需求疲軟的問題開始。您是否看到這種動態在市場的一端比另一端發揮得更多？是的，任何顏色都會很有趣。

Yes, it's a good question. You're making me think about what we're seeing. I think certainly, the higher you go in the segments, the more lines of business and the more DWP at play. So it kind of aligns to the potential for more of this sort of deal dynamic relative to all the way down to the Tier 5 sort of segment where the reality is their organizations aren't really big enough to support the sort of mixed mode and they really need to be all in on a particular core solution strategy.

是的，這是個好問題。你讓我思考我們所看到的。我認為當然，您在細分市場中走得越高，業務線越多，發揮的 DWP 就越多。所以它與這種交易動態的潛力相一致，相對於一直到第 5 層的細分市場，現實情況是他們的組織還不夠大，無法支持這種混合模式，而且他們確實需要全神貫注於特定的核心解決方案戰略。

So yes, there is differentiation across tiers. But I would say that's probably not the main takeaway. I think the main takeaway aligns to what Jeff just said. Just the idea that cloud services do support this model and our ability to deliver successfully on the programs aligns to our ability to, as I think Jeff just said, extract more value under the curve over the long run.

所以，是的，不同層次之間存在差異。但我想說這可能不是主要的收穫。我認為主要內容與傑夫剛才所說的一致。正如我認為 Jeff 剛才所說的那樣，雲服務確實支持這種模式以及我們在項目上成功交付的能力與我們在長期曲線下提取更多價值的能力相一致。

It's a bit more of a risk-sharing approach that honestly, I'm excited to take. It does have an impact on the way that we model the business and it is slightly different than how we've operated previously, but it's not necessarily a bad thing in the long run for Guidewire or for our customers. And maybe if you zoom out, like I said, it sort of aligns to how people think about cloud in general. So it might be pretty good.

老實說，這更像是一種分擔風險的方法，我很高興能接受。它確實對我們為業務建模的方式產生了影響，它與我們之前的運營方式略有不同，但從長遠來看，這對 Guidewire 或我們的客戶來說不一定是壞事。也許如果你縮小，就像我說的那樣，它有點符合人們對雲的總體看法。所以可能還不錯。

So basically, that's how I would think about it is the more complex environments, the more complex the IT operating environment is, the more potential there is for a structure like this to make sense.

所以基本上，我會這麼想，環境越複雜，IT 操作環境越複雜，這樣的結構就越有可能變得有意義。

Got it. Got it. That makes a ton of sense. I appreciate the color there. And then one on HazardHub. You had a -- there was a blog post about a month or 2 ago with the leader there kind of talking about aspirations of HazardHub's ARR doubling by the end of fiscal '22 and aspirations for that to happen again next year. I don't know if you want to comment on those targets or the growth that you're seeing, but maybe just talk about like sort of what's driving the momentum you're seeing there and kind of how you feel about the assets and the more data analytics space and insurance going forward.

知道了。知道了。這很有意義。我很欣賞那裡的顏色。然後是 HazardHub 上的一個。大約一個月或 2 個月前，您有一篇博客文章，其中的領導者談到了 HazardHub 的 ARR 在 22 財年結束時翻倍的願望，以及明年再次發生這種情況的願望。我不知道您是否想對這些目標或您所看到的增長發表評論，但也許只是談論推動您在那裡看到的勢頭的因素以及您對資產和未來會有更多的數據分析空間和保險。

Yes, sure. Great question. Very happy you brought it up. We couldn't be happier with the acquisition. It's a great group of people. It's a great product, fit right into Guidewire, connected it right into our sales and distribution organization. And there's been a lot of demand for the product. And that's up and down the sort of scale, different size companies, different size use cases and really lines up to the thesis behind the acquisition in the first place, which is that we take this great data and analytics asset, and with a real modern API approach, apply it to all sorts of different use cases within an insurance company and an insurance business process. And that is going very well.

是的，當然。好問題。很高興你提出來。我們對這次收購感到非常高興。這是一群很棒的人。這是一個很棒的產品，適合 Guidewire，直接連接到我們的銷售和分銷組織。該產品的需求量很大。這就是規模的上下波動，不同規模的公司，不同規模的用例，首先真正符合收購背後的論點，那就是我們採用了這個偉大的數據和分析資產，並具有真正的現代API 方法，將其應用於保險公司和保險業務流程中的各種不同用例。而且進展非常順利。

I don't want to get into the specifics about the targets and doubling, but we're doing real well with that acquisition and feel great about the concept in general. Just that we can take a modern approach to data and analytics, operationalize it alongside of the policy and claims, operational business processes that Guidewire runs. But then in addition, just plug that company into all the insurance companies right now in the United States, but maybe someday into the whole world.

我不想深入了解目標和翻倍的細節，但我們在收購方面做得很好，總體上對這個概念感覺很好。只是我們可以採用現代方法來處理數據和分析，將其與 Guidewire 運行的保單和索賠、運營業務流程一起實施。但是除此之外，只需將該公司插入美國所有的保險公司，但也許有一天會進入整個世界。

So -- and then I think there was a touch of your question that relates to just why is this important to an insurance company. Rating a risk has a lot to do with where that risk is. What is it? I think it's 120 degrees we were just talking about in California, which is a pretty unique circumstance. And so the climate in the world is changing and there's changes in weather patterns and there's changes in risk profiles associated with these locations.

所以 - 然後我認為你的問題涉及到為什麼這對保險公司很重要。對風險進行評級與風險所在的位置有很大關係。它是什麼？我認為這是我們剛剛在加利福尼亞談論的 120 度，這是一個非常獨特的情況。因此，世界氣候正在發生變化，天氣模式也在發生變化，與這些地點相關的風險狀況也在發生變化。

And so this is a dynamic situation that insurance companies are dealing with when they think about rating a property and assessing the risks associated with underwriting that property. And if we can make that easier for them and we can make that more accurate for them, and we can apply modern analytics and data science to the sort of idea that each and every time they touch a risk and they're getting that price right, we can really help them and we can really help the market in general and aligns really well to our mission.

因此，當保險公司考慮對財產進行評級並評估與承保該財產相關的風險時，這是一種動態情況。如果我們可以讓他們更容易，我們可以讓他們更準確，我們可以將現代分析和數據科學應用於這樣一種想法，即每次他們遇到風險時，他們都會得到正確的價格，我們真的可以幫助他們，我們可以真正幫助整個市場，並且非常符合我們的使命。

So we're very, very excited about HazardHub and its success so far here at Guidewire. So I appreciate the question.

因此，我們對 HazardHub 及其迄今為止在 Guidewire 的成功感到非常非常興奮。所以我很欣賞這個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Heckmann with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Heckmann 和 D.A.戴維森。

One thing I wanted to clarify, I didn't hear you say it, may have missed it. But in terms of your first quarter guidance, what are you embedding there in terms of your FX assumptions, about 300 basis points of headwind?

我想澄清一件事，我沒有聽到你說，可能錯過了。但就您的第一季度指導而言，您在外匯假設方面嵌入了什麼，大約 300 個基點的逆風？

Yes. I mean we've kind of adjusted our forecast for current FX rates. And so I don't -- I'm not sure about on a basis points perspective, but yes, we are factoring in current FX rates.

是的。我的意思是我們已經調整了對當前匯率的預測。所以我不 - 我不確定從基點的角度來看，但是是的，我們正在考慮當前的外匯匯率。

Okay. And so for the year, just basically looking at spot rates currently. And so if we get some improvement from that, then we could potentially get some upside. But on the ARR side, we're -- now we're just looking at like your first quarter ARR guidance. That is now based on the constant currency as of...

好的。所以今年，基本上只看目前的即期匯率。因此，如果我們從中獲得一些改進，那麼我們可能會獲得一些好處。但在 ARR 方面，我們 - 現在我們只是在看你的第一季度 ARR 指導。那現在是基於截至...的不變貨幣

Exactly. Yes. So we've reset ARR for the fiscal year moving ahead, and we will kind of hold that constant as we move through the year. That's right.

確切地。是的。因此，我們已經為接下來的財政年度重置了 ARR，我們將在這一年中保持這一不變。這是正確的。

Okay. And then just a question on the M&A outlook. Committee continues to have a significant war chest and it certainly seems like there's a lot of interesting smaller companies out there and maybe some valuations have come in a bit. Would you expect to be relatively more active on M&A over the next 2 or 3 years compared to the last 2 or 3?

好的。然後只是一個關於併購前景的問題。委員會繼續擁有大量資金，而且看起來肯定有很多有趣的小公司在那裡，也許有些估值已經出現了。與過去 2 年或 3 年相比，您預計未來 2 年或 3 年的併購活動會相對更加活躍嗎？

Yes. I think it's a fair question. And certainly, we watch closely multiples, valuations and expected transaction costs. And so that is all headed towards -- pushes us towards the possibility that we'll be more active. I think that's appropriate. It's -- and I think the other side of that equation is we're feeling more and more comfortable with the strategic position that we have earned, I guess, with respect to the cloud platform and the confidence we have executing there.

是的。我認為這是一個公平的問題。當然，我們密切關注倍數、估值和預期交易成本。所以這一切都朝著 - 推動我們走向我們將更加活躍的可能性。我認為這是合適的。這是 - 我認為這個等式的另一面是我們對我們所獲得的戰略地位感到越來越舒服，我猜，關於雲平台和我們在那裡執行的信心。

So I think it's fair to say that it's reasonable to think that we will be more interested in these small companies and M&A activity just given that valuations are more in line and impossible, given where we are with the overall state of technology, multiples and valuations.

所以我認為公平地說，考慮到我們在技術、倍數和估值的整體狀況下，估值更加符合和不可能，認為我們將對這些小公司和併購活動更感興趣是合理的.

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Dylan Becker with William Blair.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Dylan Becker 和 William Blair。

Mike, maybe I wanted to double click on a couple of questions prior. I wanted to get your take on the idea of continuous underwriting and maybe what the value and visibility this can deliver for the industry. And maybe as an enabler of that, how you think about the evolution of insurance business models and that emphasis on data to serve as that further incentive on some of these core modernization projects.

邁克，也許我想事先雙擊幾個問題。我想了解您對持續承保這一想法的看法，以及這可能為行業帶來的價值和知名度。也許作為一個推動者，你如何看待保險業務模式的演變以及對數據的重視，以進一步激勵其中一些核心現代化項目。

Nominal question. In general, I remember back to when I first joined Guidewire and I was talking to one of the insurance executives responsible for Guidewire modernization, right? So we're not talking about cloud. We're just talking about mainframe to modern system. And what they explained to me very nicely and politely was that their entire operation operated on a 24-hour batch-based cycle.

名義上的問題。總的來說，我記得當我第一次加入 Guidewire 時，我正在與一位負責 Guidewire 現代化的保險高管交談，對吧？所以我們不是在談論云。我們只是在談論大型機到現代系統。他們非常友好和禮貌地向我解釋說，他們的整個操作都在一個 24 小時的基於批次的循環中運行。

So agents and brokers would talk to customers about quotes and offer estimates to customers about potentially underwriting their risk. But it wasn't -- but you had to wait 24 hours for the mainframe batch system to kick in, in order to provide an actual quote back for that customer. And then if there was any change to that quote, you had to wait another 24-hour cycle in order to get this to actually transact.

因此，代理商和經紀人會與客戶討論報價，並向客戶提供有關潛在承保風險的估計。但事實並非如此——但您必須等待 24 小時才能啟動大型機批處理系統，以便為該客戶提供實際報價。然後，如果該報價有任何變化，您必須再等待 24 小時周期才能真正進行交易。

And so what they're explaining to me is that establishing Guidewire as the core system was going to enable that process to execute continuously. Want a quote? Here's a quote. Want to change something? Here's a new quote. And that could enable -- when you think about it that way, it makes it super easy for you to understand what people are talking about when they say that we're going to execute a digital transformation in the insurance industry. It's just the seamless type of experience and interaction that we expect to have from every company that we interact with, and we were going to make that possible.

所以他們向我解釋的是，將 Guidewire 建立為核心系統將使該流程能夠持續執行。想要報價？這是一個報價。想要改變一些東西？這是一個新的報價。這可以使 - 當您以這種方式思考時，當人們說我們將在保險行業執行數字化轉型時，您可以非常容易地理解他們在談論什麼。這只是我們期望從與我們互動的每家公司獲得的無縫體驗和互動，我們將使其成為可能。

So if you take that a step further, which is what I think that you're getting at sort of behind your next question is, is like, well -- okay, well, if you're looking at a risk and you're making a decision about underwriting that risk, how frequently are we checking to see that the underlying conditions associated with that risk are still valid? And what's the term of the agreement that we've established for that risk? Is it a month? Is it 6 months? Is it a year? How frequently are we resetting that price with -- when you take it to the extreme, there's the potential to be looking at these risks continuously, pricing these risks continuously.

因此，如果您更進一步，我認為您在下一個問題背後所要解決的問題就像，好吧，好吧，如果您正在尋找風險並且您正在在決定承保該風險時，我們多久檢查一次以確保與該風險相關的潛在條件仍然有效？我們為這種風險制定的協議條款是什麼？是一個月嗎？是6個月嗎？是一年嗎？我們重置該價格的頻率有多高——當你把它推到極端時，就有可能持續關注這些風險，持續為這些風險定價。

And we all see that to some extent, maybe it's pretty early in its evolution, but we see this to some extent in the way that we drive cars. And the feedback that we're getting about how we're driving the car and how the risks we're taking while we're driving our car impacts the price we're paying for the insurance that we get for driving that car. But you can really extend this out to the whole -- all these different lines of business in the insurance industry.

我們都在某種程度上看到了這一點，也許它還處於發展的早期階段，但我們在某種程度上看到了我們駕駛汽車的方式。我們獲得的關於我們如何駕駛汽車以及我們在駕駛汽車時所承擔的風險如何影響我們為駕駛汽車所獲得的保險支付的價格的反饋。但是你真的可以把它擴展到整個保險業——所有這些不同的業務線。

The other thing that I think is really interesting about your question is that it doesn't just -- it isn't just the idea that it impacts this one risk in this one transaction, but these companies have to be looking at their entire portfolio. They have to be using, and I'll kind of touch back to one of the earlier questions about HazardHub, they have to be looking at all the property risk that they have. And they have to be assessing, have things changed with respect to the risks that they've already underwritten? And should that have an influence on the way that they want to price the next risk that comes into the door and comes into the funnel, the sales funnel, so to speak?

我認為您的問題真正有趣的另一件事是，它不僅會影響這一交易中的這一風險，而且這些公司必須著眼於他們的整個投資組合.他們必須使用，我會稍微回到關於 HazardHub 的早期問題之一，他們必須考慮他們擁有的所有財產風險。他們必須評估，他們已經承保的風險是否發生了變化？這是否會影響他們對下一個進入門並進入漏斗、銷售漏斗的風險進行定價的方式？

I just think all of this is pretty exciting that we can establish a better platform. We can make the data and the analytics more easily available. We can create more agility in the way that these systems are deployed. And you can get to a place where insurance companies are just operating a lot more fluidly and a lot more efficiently. And I think that, that's really what's underlying the sort of potential behind the sort of industry transformation.

我只是認為所有這些都非常令人興奮，因為我們可以建立一個更好的平台。我們可以使數據和分析更容易獲得。我們可以在部署這些系統的方式上創造更多的敏捷性。而且您可以到達一個保險公司運營更加流暢和高效的地方。而且我認為，這就是這種行業轉型背後的潛在潛力。

So hopefully, that lines up to what you were talking about, but it's an exciting way to think about what we can do for our customers and for the industry.

所以希望這與你所說的一致，但這是一種令人興奮的方式來思考我們可以為我們的客戶和行業做些什麼。

Yes, no, absolutely. I appreciate the detail and super exciting overall opportunity set there, super interesting. Maybe a more boring question for Jeff. As we think about the services kind of component and mix in the business to maybe moving away from some of those fixed fee arrangements dilutes this to a certain extent, but how should we think about that outside of again some of the third-party outsourcing to SIs, but for the services revenue line item as some of that leading indicator of some of the overall business momentum as well, right? So having to work towards that implementation, enable the provisioning and then the actual go-live for some of these solutions in the cloud, how does that -- how should we think about that as a potential leading indicator of the subscription momentum as well?

是的，不，絕對的。我很欣賞那裡的細節和超級令人興奮的整體機會，超級有趣。對傑夫來說，這可能是一個更無聊的問題。當我們考慮服務類型的組件並在業務中混合時，可能會在一定程度上擺脫一些固定費用安排，但我們應該如何考慮在一些第三方外包之外SI，但對於服務收入項目，作為一些整體業務勢頭的領先指標也是如此，對嗎？因此，必須努力實現該實施，啟用配置，然後在雲中為其中一些解決方案實際上線，這是如何做到的——我們應該如何將其視為訂閱勢頭的潛在領先指標？

Yes. I think you got to be a little bit careful there. We did see healthy growth on our services revenue this year. We are actively pushing more and more work to our partners and intend to create a very large opportunity for our partners as we affect this transition to the cloud. It's the only way we can attack this problem scalably.

是的。我認為你必須小心一點。今年我們確實看到了服務收入的健康增長。我們正在積極向我們的合作夥伴推動越來越多的工作，並打算在我們影響向雲的過渡時為我們的合作夥伴創造一個非常大的機會。這是我們可以大規模解決這個問題的唯一方法。

So looking at our services line and the growth of our services line, I don't think is necessarily an early indicator of overall cloud demand as I expect our partners just to continue to take more and more of that work, which is a positive thing for the both of us.

因此，看看我們的服務線和服務線的增長，我認為不一定是整體雲需求的早期指標，因為我希望我們的合作夥伴繼續承擔越來越多的工作，這是一件積極的事情對於我們倆。

And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Mike Rosenbaum for closing remarks.

我們已經到了問答環節的結尾。現在，我將把電話轉回給 Mike Rosenbaum 進行結束髮言。

Thanks very much. I just want to thank everybody for participating on the call today, and we look forward to seeing hopefully all of you at our Analyst Day on October 6. So thanks very much, everybody.

非常感謝。我只想感謝大家參加今天的電話會議，我們期待在 10 月 6 日的分析師日與大家見面。非常感謝大家。

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。