Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Nikki, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's first quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Ryan Reed, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安。我叫 Nikki，今天將擔任各位的電話會議接線員。此刻，我謹代表主辦方歡迎各位參加固特異（Goodyear）2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，本通話可能會被錄音。現在我很榮幸將會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Ryan Reed。請開始。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2026 earnings call. With me today are Mark Stewart, CEO and President; and Christina Zamarro, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝，各位早安。歡迎參加我們 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有執行長兼總裁 Mark Stewart，以及執行副總裁暨財務長 Christina Zamarro。

A couple notes before we get started. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP measures. For more information on the most significant factors that could affect future results and for reconciliations of non-GAAP measures, please reference today's presentation and our SEC filings. Our earnings materials, including a replay of this call, can be found at investor.goodyear.com.

在開始之前先提醒幾點。在本次通話中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述，並提及非 GAAP 衡量指標。關於可能影響未來結果的最重要因素，以及非 GAAP 指標的調節（reconciliation），請參閱今日簡報與我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件。我們的財報資料（包含本次通話的重播）可於 investor.goodyear.com 查閱。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Mark.

接下來我把電話交給 Mark。

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call. As we look at the quarter, you'll hear Christina and I walk through how we are staying disciplined as market dynamics continue to shift and how we're managing through the current environment. With that, let's start with our results.

謝謝你，Ryan，各位早安。感謝各位撥冗參與本次電話會議。回顧本季，你們將聽到 Christina 和我說明：在市場動態持續變化之際，我們如何保持紀律，以及我們如何在當前環境中進行經營管理。那麼，先從我們的業績表現開始。

For the Q1 summary, first quarter operating results were largely in line with our expectations and reflected industry declines in both consumer OE and replacement demand in many of our markets. In that environment, both EMEA and Asia Pacific regions showed year-over-year segment operating income growth and SOI margin improvements.

就第一季摘要而言，第一季營運結果大致符合我們的預期，並反映出我們多個市場中，消費者原廠配套（OE）與替換需求皆出現產業下滑。在此環境下，EMEA 與亞太兩個區域的分部營運收入（SOI）皆呈現年對年成長，SOI 利潤率亦有所改善。

Condition in the Americas were challenging. Weak consumer and commercial demand, retailer and distributor destocking, and increased manufacturer promotion weighed on the results. At the same time, Goodyear Forward savings continued to exceed plan. We generated USD107 million of SOI benefits during the quarter. While Goodyear Forward was launched as a two year program, the actions we took simplifying the business and improving productivity continued to deliver benefits for us today.

美洲地區的情勢具挑戰性。疲弱的消費者與商用需求、零售商與經銷商去庫存，以及製造商促銷增加，均對業績造成壓力。同時，Goodyear Forward 的節省效益持續超越計畫。本季我們產生了 1.07 億美元的 SOI 效益。雖然 Goodyear Forward 最初是以兩年期計畫推出，但我們透過簡化業務與提升生產力所採取的行動，至今仍持續為我們帶來效益。

The conflict in the Middle East has introduced more uncertainty, particularly around raw materials and potential end market demand. When you add that to already weak industry trends, it creates a challenging backdrop for the coming quarters, one we're well-prepared to manage.

中東衝突帶來更多不確定性，特別是在原物料以及終端市場需求的潛在影響方面。再加上原本就偏弱的產業趨勢，使得未來幾季的背景更具挑戰；而我們已做好充分準備來因應。

In the Americas, consumer OE industry demand declined, reflecting lower OEM production. Even in that environment, we grew our OE market share by about two points in the quarter. That progress really reinforces our confidence in our OE strategy and continues to build a strong pipeline for future premium replacement demand over time in the replacement cycle.

在美洲，消費者原廠配套（OE）產業需求下滑，反映 OEM 產量降低。即便在此環境下，我們本季仍將 OE 市占率提升約 2 個百分點。這項進展進一步強化我們對 OE 策略的信心，並在替換週期中，持續為未來的高端替換需求建立強勁的管線。

On the consumer replacement side, US industry demand declined, driven by harsh winter weather and a cautious consumer. As I mentioned earlier, manufacturing promotions carried over from the fourth quarter, given a weak demand environment. Against that backdrop, we stayed disciplined on price mix, and we did not chase near-term volumes.

在消費者替換市場方面，美國產業需求下滑，主因是嚴寒冬季天候以及消費者趨於保守。如我先前提到，在需求疲弱的環境下，製造端促銷從第四季延續至本季。在此背景下，我們在價格／組合（price mix）上維持紀律，並未追逐短期銷量。

America's first quarter volumes also reflect planned actions that rationalize low margin, non-core brands, non-core product lines as we continue the work to streamline our portfolio of product offerings in the marketplace. As we look to the second quarter, we expect consumer replacement volume to improve from first quarter levels, given the sharp destocking we experienced in Q1 and new assortment wins achieved by our sales team with key US customers.

美洲第一季的銷量亦反映我們已規劃並執行的行動：精簡低毛利、非核心品牌與非核心產品線，持續推進市場端產品組合的精簡工作。展望第二季，鑑於我們在第一季經歷了急劇去庫存，以及銷售團隊在美國主要客戶取得新的產品組合（assortment）勝出，我們預期消費者替換銷量將較第一季水準改善。

The America's commercial truck tire business continued to be impacted by tough comps and a continued weak freight environment during the quarter, showing meaningful declines versus last year. Volumes remained at very low levels, and operating results in our Americas commercial business continued to be challenged given the multi-year downturn in US freight activities. Our focus here is clear: improving the trajectory of earnings through price mix and a strong focus on cost. We believe our industry-leading cradle to grave fleet solutions business model will help us win with our customers.

美洲商用卡車輪胎業務本季持續受到高基期比較與貨運環境持續疲弱的影響，較去年出現顯著下滑。銷量仍處於非常低的水準，而由於美國貨運活動已連續多年下行，我們美洲商用業務的營運結果仍面臨挑戰。我們在此的重點很明確：透過價格／組合（price mix）以及對成本的強力聚焦，改善獲利走勢。我們相信，我們業界領先的「從搖籃到墳墓」（cradle to grave）車隊解決方案商業模式，將有助於我們贏得客戶。

Turning to EMEA, where our consumer OE business continued to gain share, growing by roughly 2 points despite industry volume in both OE and replacement declining in the region. In fact, Q1 marked the ninth consecutive quarter of OE market share gains in the region. EMEA's consumer replacement volume was lower, driven primarily by two factors: increased competition in low rim size tires and, like the Americas, our strategic portfolio rationalization of low margin products.

接著看 EMEA，我們的消費者原廠配套（OE）業務持續提升市占率；儘管該區域 OE 與替換的產業銷量皆下滑，我們仍約提升 2 個百分點。事實上，第一季是該區域 OE 市占率連續第九季成長。EMEA 的消費者替換銷量較低，主要由兩項因素所致：低輪圈尺寸輪胎的競爭加劇，以及與美洲相同，我們對低毛利產品進行策略性產品組合精簡。

Importantly, the Middle East represents a very small portion of our EMEA sales, and we did not see a material volume impact from the conflict during the quarter. In EMEA commercial truck, industry demand improved somewhat with replacement demand up slightly and OE increasing following gains in the second half of last year. We continue to see opportunities to improve our commercial business this year through price mix and through increasing operational efficiencies in our solutions business.

重要的是，中東僅占我們 EMEA 銷售的極小部分，本季我們未看到衝突對銷量造成重大影響。在 EMEA 商用卡車方面，產業需求略有改善，替換需求小幅上升，而 OE 也在去年下半年增長的基礎上持續增加。我們仍看到今年可透過價格／組合（price mix）以及提升解決方案業務的營運效率，來改善商用業務的機會。

Finally, as we shared with you on our last call, we completed two major factory restructuring actions in Europe in '25. Another is underway this year. EMEA's cost base has seen improvement, and we expect high utilization across our consumer capacity in the region. We also expect a final decision on the EU tariffs on Chinese consumer tire imports this summer.

最後，如同我們在上次電話會議中與各位分享的，我們已於 2025 年在歐洲完成兩項主要工廠重整措施。今年另有一項正在進行中。EMEA 的成本基礎已有所改善，我們預期該區域的消費者產能將維持高稼動率。我們也預期今年夏天將就歐盟對中國消費者輪胎進口的關稅作出最終決定。

In Asia Pacific, SOI margin was very strong. With share remaining relatively flat in the quarter, our volume performance reflected underlying market conditions. Our strategy to expand in rim sizes 18 and above continues to gain traction. We're encouraged by our progress. Premium over 18-inch tire sizes now account for 55% of our consumer sales in the region, a four point increase over Q1 of last year.

在亞太地區，SOI 利潤率表現非常強勁。本季市占率大致持平，我們的銷量表現反映了基礎市場狀況。我們擴展至 18 吋及以上輪圈尺寸的策略持續取得進展。我們對此進展感到鼓舞。18 吋以上的高端輪胎尺寸目前占該區域消費者銷售的 55%，較去年第一季提高 4 個百分點。

Across our SBUs, our teams have taken decisive actions to strengthen our portfolio. In EMEA, we've relaunched the Cooper brand with a refreshed product lineup with first quarter volumes exceeding expectations. Just this past weekend in the US, we introduced our new Fast Is In Us brand campaign in support of our Eagle Tire launch. Both reflect where we're choosing to invest in strong brands and products that meet our customers' needs.

在各個策略事業單位（SBU）中，我們的團隊已採取果斷行動以強化產品組合。在 EMEA，我們以更新的產品陣容重新推出 Cooper 品牌，第一季銷量超出預期。就在上週末於美國，我們推出全新的「Fast Is In Us」品牌行銷活動，以支持 Eagle 輪胎上市。這兩者都反映出我們選擇投資於強勢品牌與產品，以滿足客戶需求。

It's encouraging to see these efforts translate into tangible improvements in two of our three regions, despite the challenging market conditions. This highlights the strength of our execution and positions us to drive value creation with a more premium product portfolio.

令人振奮的是，儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，我們仍看到這些努力在三個區域中的兩個轉化為具體改善。這凸顯了我們執行力的強度，並使我們得以透過更高端的產品組合來推動價值創造。

Taking a broader perspective on the market, we've been consistent in our conviction that execution on price mix and cost are critical components of long-term value creation. We remain committed to that strategy. Both the macro backdrop and industry dynamics have proved to be somewhat more turbulent than we anticipated at the start of the year. We're responding accordingly, remaining disciplined in our strategic priorities, taking a pragmatic approach to managing the business in the near term.

從更宏觀的市場角度來看，我們一貫堅信：在價格／組合（price mix）與成本上的執行，是長期價值創造的關鍵組成。我們仍致力於該策略。無論是總體環境背景或產業動態，其波動程度都比我們在年初預期的更大。我們也據此作出相應調整，在策略優先事項上保持紀律，並以務實方式管理短期業務。

As we think about the path forward, demand and inflation will largely depend on the duration and direction of the current geopolitical conflict and its impact on consumers. Historically, periods of elevated oil prices have had negative impact on vehicle miles traveled, with even modest changes in VMT translating into meaningful shifts in the consumer replacement industry demand.

在我們思考未來的前進路徑時，需求與通膨在很大程度上將取決於當前地緣政治衝突的持續時間與走向，以及其對消費者的影響。從歷史來看，油價處於高位的時期對車輛行駛里程（VMT）有負面影響，即使VMT僅出現小幅變動，也會轉化為消費者替換市場需求的顯著變化。

In addition to raw material and other cost pressure, the current environment introduces the potential for supply chain disruption. We're actively monitoring this across our supply base, and we're well-positioned due to both our purchasing scale and long-term relationships with our supply partners, and we are planning for a range of outcomes to support continuity of supply.

除了原材料與其他成本壓力之外，當前環境也帶來供應鏈中斷的可能性。我們正積極在供應體系中監測此情況；憑藉我們的採購規模與與供應夥伴的長期關係，我們具備良好優勢，並正針對多種可能結果進行規劃，以支持供應的連續性。

In response, we're going to focus the actions that we can directly influence to manage through uncertain environment. As we've shared with you before, it's about controlling the controllables. We have meaningful carryover SOI benefits in 2026 from Goodyear Forward actions. Additionally, we're accelerating the new cost actions that build on the transformation work we began two years ago. That includes a continued emphasis on simplifying the organization, improving efficiency across our manufacturing footprint, and strengthening the structural cost profile of the business. We will continue to take action, proactively adapting our cost structure as conditions evolve, and we'll provide additional detail as those actions are finalized.

作為回應，我們將聚焦於那些我們可以直接影響的行動，以在不確定的環境中進行管理。正如我們先前與各位分享的，關鍵在於掌控可控之事。我們在2026年將從「固特異前進（Goodyear Forward）」行動中獲得可觀的SOI結轉效益。此外，我們正在加速新的成本行動，這些行動建立在我們兩年前啟動的轉型工作之上。其中包括持續強調簡化組織、提升整體製造版圖的效率，以及強化業務的結構性成本輪廓。我們將持續採取行動，隨著情勢演變主動調整成本結構，並在相關行動定案後提供更多細節。

In addition to the actions on cost, it's even more critical today that our product development efforts sustain the momentum we've achieved over the last two years. This will help ensure our product coverage aligns with the most differentiated and the most profitable segments of the tire market.

除了成本方面的行動之外，在當下更為關鍵的是，我們的產品開發工作必須延續過去兩年所取得的動能。這將有助於確保我們的產品覆蓋與輪胎市場中最具差異化、且最具獲利性的細分領域相一致。

In closing, we continue to align our portfolio towards the most attractive segments of the tire market, even in a highly dynamic environment. Our consumer OE share gains positions us very well for premium replacement demand in the years ahead. We believe much of the destocking is behind us. As that headwind eases, it should provide a more stable backdrop for volumes.

最後總結，我們將持續把產品組合對準輪胎市場中最具吸引力的細分領域，即便在高度動態的環境下亦然。我們在消費者原廠配套（OE）市占率的提升，使我們在未來數年面對高端替換需求時具備非常有利的定位。我們認為去庫存的大部分影響已經過去。隨著這股逆風緩解，將為出貨量提供更穩定的背景。

In addition, we're accelerating the initiatives that build on the success of Goodyear Forward, further strengthening our cost structure. This will require us to make some difficult but very necessary decisions to ensure the business is aligned with the environment we're operating in. We have consistently demonstrated strong capabilities to drive those cost transformations. We are confident this approach will position us well over the long term.

此外，我們正在加速各項建立在「固特異前進（Goodyear Forward）」成功基礎上的倡議，進一步強化我們的成本結構。這將要求我們做出一些艱難但非常必要的決策，以確保公司與我們所處的營運環境相匹配。我們一貫展現出推動這些成本轉型的強大能力。我們有信心，這一做法將使我們在長期具備良好定位。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Christina. Thank you.

接下來，我把電話會議交給Christina。謝謝。

Thank you, Mark. While our operating performance in the quarter was in line with our expectations, the conflict in the Middle East will materially impact our costs. With a high degree of uncertainty around the duration of the conflict, our approach is similar as to how we've navigated earlier macro pressures. We are proactively preparing for a wide range of scenarios. We're implementing further profit-enhancing actions and have already initiated prudent steps on cost management. As events continue to unfold, we'll maintain the flexibility to adjust our approach as needed. I'll come back to the outlook in just a few moments.

謝謝你，Mark。雖然我們本季的營運表現符合預期，但中東衝突將對我們的成本造成實質影響。鑑於衝突持續時間存在高度不確定性，我們的應對方式與先前因應宏觀壓力時相似。我們正主動為各種情境做準備。我們正在推行進一步提升獲利的行動，並已在成本管理方面啟動審慎措施。隨著事件持續發展，我們將保持彈性，視需要調整做法。我稍後會再回到展望部分。

Turning to the income statement on slide 6, first quarter sales were USD3.9 billion, down about 9% from last year, given lower volume and last year's divestitures. Unit volume declined 12%, driven by lower consumer replacement volume in Americas and EMEA. As Mark mentioned, consumer OE volume increased, driven by share gains in both of those regions.

接著看第6頁投影片的損益表，第一季銷售額為39億美元，較去年下降約9%，主要因出貨量較低以及去年處分資產的影響。單位出貨量下降12%，主要由美洲與EMEA的消費者替換需求下滑所致。如Mark所提到，消費者原廠配套（OE）出貨量增加，受惠於這兩個地區的市占率提升。

Gross margin improved by half a point, which includes a USD46 million tariff adjustment related to the IEEPA Supreme Court decision in February. SG&A increased USD18 million, which was more than all explained by the weaker US dollar, particularly against the euro. Excluding currency, SG&A decreased USD10 million.

毛利率提升0.5個百分點，其中包含2月因最高法院就IEEPA作出裁決而產生的4,600萬美元關稅調整。SG&A增加1,800萬美元，這幾乎完全可由美元走弱所解釋，尤其是相對於歐元。若排除匯率影響，SG&A則減少1,000萬美元。

Segment operating income was USD95 million. I'll note that our effective tax rate was unusually high given our country mix of earnings. After adjusting for significant items, including new rationalizations and discrete tax items in the quarter, non-GAAP earnings per share was a loss of USD0.39.

分部營業利益（SOI）為9,500萬美元。我也要指出，由於獲利的國別組合，我們的有效稅率異常偏高。在調整重大項目後（包括本季新的合理化措施與一次性稅務項目），非GAAP每股盈餘為虧損0.39美元。

Turning to the segment operating income walk on slide 7. Our 2025 earnings base was lower by USD37 million due to last year's divestitures. After this change in scope, our 2025 SOI was USD158 million. Lower tire unit volume and factory utilization were a headwind of USD159 million. Price mix versus raw materials was a benefit of USD103 million. Goodyear Forward contributed USD107 million of benefits during the quarter, and inflation, tariffs, and other costs were a headwind of USD117 million, which includes a USD46 million IEEPA tariff adjustment. Foreign currency and other were a tailwind of USD3 million.

接著看第7頁投影片的分部營業利益（SOI）變動分析。由於去年處分資產，我們2025年的獲利基礎減少3,700萬美元。在此範圍變動之後，我們2025年的SOI為1.58億美元。輪胎單位出貨量下降與工廠稼動率降低帶來1.59億美元的不利影響。價格/組合相對原材料帶來1.03億美元的有利影響。「固特異前進（Goodyear Forward）」在本季貢獻1.07億美元效益；通膨、關稅與其他成本帶來1.17億美元的不利影響，其中包含4,600萬美元的IEEPA關稅調整。外匯與其他項目帶來300萬美元的有利影響。

Turning to slide 8, free cash flow was a use of USD893 million in the quarter, consistent with our seasonality and largely in line with last year's levels after excluding operating cash received in the first quarter 2025 from the sale of OTR. Net debt declined almost USD900 million versus a year ago, reflecting debt repayment at the end of last year.

接著看第8頁投影片，本季自由現金流為淨流出8.93億美元，符合我們的季節性特徵；若排除2025年第一季因出售OTR而收到的營運現金，則與去年水準大致一致。相較一年前，淨負債減少近9億美元，反映去年底的償債。

Moving to the SBU results on slide 10. Americas unit volume decreased 17%, driven by lower US consumer replacement volume. Commercial volume was also significantly lower than last year, following trends in recent quarters.

接著看第10頁投影片的SBU結果。美洲單位出貨量下降17%，主要由美國消費者替換出貨量下滑所致。商用出貨量也顯著低於去年，延續近幾季的趨勢。

US consumer replacement volume reflected a couple of different factors. First, the external environment. We saw destocking at our retailers and distributors given weak industry sellout trends, as well as market share losses following aggressive competition for shelf space, particularly in the less than 18-inch rim size segments.

美國消費者替換出貨量反映了幾個不同因素。第一，是外部環境。在產業終端銷售（sellout）趨勢疲弱的情況下，我們看到零售商與經銷商去庫存；同時，因競爭對手積極爭奪貨架空間而導致市占率流失，尤其是在小於18吋輪圈尺寸的細分市場。

The second factor was our own planned exits of low-margin product lines, which amplified our volume decline in light of the difficult industry environment. We will lap the majority of our product exits by the end of the second quarter, and it's important to note that our premium products continued to perform well as we look at our market share at retail sell out. Having said that, competitive market share losses in structurally vulnerable lower tier segments requires that we accelerate actions to reduce footprint costs.

第二個因素是我們自身按計畫退出低毛利產品線，這在艱困的產業環境下放大了我們的出貨量下滑。到第二季末，我們將完成大部分產品退出的同比基期消化；同時也必須指出，從零售端終端銷售的市占表現來看，我們的高端產品仍持續表現良好。儘管如此，在結構性較脆弱的低階細分市場出現的競爭性市占流失，要求我們加速採取行動以降低產能版圖成本。

Turning to the commercial truck business, replacement volume declined 22% and OE volume was down 5.5%, but relatively stable compared with the fourth quarter. Americas segment operating income was USD37 million, reflecting the impact of lower volume, partly offset by price mix versus raw material benefits and Goodyear Forward savings ahead of cost inflation, net of the IEEPA tariff adjustment.

接著看商用卡車業務，替換出貨量下降22%，原廠配套（OE）出貨量下降5.5%，但相較第四季相對穩定。美洲分部營業利益為3,700萬美元，反映出貨量下降的影響；部分被價格/組合相對原材料的效益，以及「固特異前進（Goodyear Forward）」節省（在成本通膨之前）所抵銷，並已扣除IEEPA關稅調整的影響。

Turning to slide 11, EMEA's first quarter unit volume decreased 8.5%. Consumer replacement volume declined, reflecting a weak sell-in market, low-end portfolio rationalizations, and increased competition, partly offset by the relaunch of the Cooper brand in the region. Consumer OE was a continued area of strength, and commercial volume improved, driven by replacement.

接著看第11頁投影片，EMEA第一季單位出貨量下降8.5%。消費者替換出貨量下滑，反映進貨端（sell-in）市場疲弱、低端產品組合合理化，以及競爭加劇；部分被Cooper品牌在該地區重新上市所抵銷。消費者原廠配套（OE）仍是持續的強項，而商用出貨量在替換需求帶動下有所改善。

Segment operating income in EMEA was USD1 million in the quarter, reflecting an increase of USD13 million adjusted for the sale of the Dunlop brand. I'll also note that in March, we announced a rationalization plan to streamline our sales and distribution model and our business processes that should deliver USD50 million in annual savings. The plan should be complete by 2028.

EMEA 區隔的營業利益在本季為 100 萬美元，反映在扣除出售 Dunlop 品牌的影響後，調整後增加了 1,300 萬美元。我也要補充說明，我們在 3 月宣布了一項精簡計畫，以簡化我們的銷售與通路模式以及業務流程，預計每年可帶來 5,000 萬美元的節省。該計畫預計於 2028 年完成。

Finally, as Mark noted, our direct volume exposure to customers located in the Middle East is relatively immaterial. In addition, before the beginning of the conflict, we had fixed about 75% of our energy rate exposure in EMEA for the current year. Finally, EMEA should see much less of an impact from rationalized product lines in Q2.

最後，如 Mark 所提到，我們對位於中東客戶的直接銷量曝險相對不具重大性。此外，在衝突開始之前，我們已為本年度 EMEA 約 75% 的能源費率曝險完成鎖定。最後，EMEA 在第二季受到產品線精簡的影響應會小得多。

Turning to Asia Pacific on slide 12. Segment operating income increased 27% to USD57 million or 12.5% of sales, expanding three full points compared to the prior year. Growth in earnings was driven by strong execution in price mix versus raw materials with our premium product lines up nearly 30% year over year. Asia's first quarter unit volume decreased 3.8%, driven by lower OE volume, particularly in China, given lower EV incentives versus last year.

接著看投影片 12 的亞太地區。區隔營業利益成長 27% 至 5,700 萬美元，或占銷售額 12.5%，較去年擴大整整 3 個百分點。獲利成長主要來自我們在價格／組合相對原物料方面的強勁執行力，其中高階產品線年增近 30%。亞洲第一季單位銷量下滑 3.8%，主要因 OE（原廠配套）銷量較低，尤其在中國，原因是相較去年電動車補貼誘因較低。

Turning to our 2026 outlook. The direct impacts of the conflict in Iran on the tire industry and our earnings largely depends on its duration, related impacts to customer and consumer demand, and tire commodity costs, all which make the outlook for the balance of the year unclear. At current spot prices, raw materials will be a headwind of USD200 million in the second half, which represents a headwind of about USD300 million from our prior forecast.

接著談我們對 2026 年的展望。伊朗衝突對輪胎產業與我們獲利的直接影響，在很大程度上取決於衝突持續時間、對客戶與消費者需求的連帶影響，以及輪胎大宗商品成本；上述因素使得今年剩餘期間的展望仍不明朗。以目前即期價格計算，原物料在下半年將形成 2 億美元的不利因素，較我們先前預測增加約 3 億美元的不利因素。

We have a consistent track record of offsetting raw material inflation with price mix, and we are fully committed to new and meaningful operating and structural cost reduction. While there is very clear pressure on our near-term earnings, I am confident in our team's ability to manage through various scenarios that might unfold over the coming quarters with both price mix and cost actions over time.

我們一向有以價格／組合抵銷原物料通膨的穩健紀錄，並且全力投入新的且具實質意義的營運與結構性成本削減。儘管短期獲利面臨非常明顯的壓力，我仍對團隊有信心，能在未來幾季可能出現的各種情境中，透過價格／組合與成本措施，隨時間推進加以因應。

As we look at the second quarter on slide 14, we would expect lower year-over-year volumes, but improving from the first quarter, all else equal. This expectation is rooted in new assortment wins with key customers, actions we implemented during the first quarter, and a more natural alignment of sell-in relative to sell-out. It's not clear what demand volatility we may see due to the Middle East conflict. Our second quarter industry assumption for consumer replacement is down about 3% in North America and China and down about 2% in EMEA. For commercial, we expect the industry in North America to be down 12% and down 3%-4% in EMEA.

就投影片 14 的第二季而言，在其他條件不變下，我們預期年對年銷量會較低，但會較第一季改善。此一預期基於我們與關鍵客戶取得的新產品組合勝出、第一季已採取的行動，以及出貨（sell-in）相對終端銷售（sell-out）更自然的對齊。由於中東衝突，我們可能會看到何種需求波動仍不明朗。我們對第二季消費者替換市場的產業假設為：北美與中國約下滑 3%，EMEA 約下滑 2%。商用方面，我們預期北美產業將下滑 12%，EMEA 下滑 3%–4%。

Given production cuts in the first and second quarters, including actions to manage our cash flow during this period of uncertainty, unabsorbed overhead will be a headwind of approximately USD90 million and negative again in the third quarter. Price mix should continue to be positive and step up meaningfully from the first quarter given stronger volume and our mix of new fitments, all else equal.

鑑於第一季與第二季的減產（包括在此不確定期間為管理現金流所採取的行動），未吸收製造費用（unabsorbed overhead）將形成約 9,000 萬美元的不利因素，且第三季仍將再度為負面影響。在其他條件不變下，價格／組合應可持續為正，並在第二季因更強的銷量與我們新配套（fitment）組合而較第一季明顯提升。

Raw materials should be a benefit of roughly USD100 million. Goodyear Forward will drive benefits of approximately USD90 million in the quarter. Inflation, tariffs, and other costs will be a headwind of approximately USD200 million. On a full year basis, these will be about USD420 million higher, which is a reduction of about USD80 million from our February call, driven by the IEEPA tariff adjustment of USD60 million, USD46 million of which we recorded during the first quarter. Finally, the sales of Dunlop and Chemical lowers the base of earnings by USD43 million in the second quarter. Other financial assumptions are shown on slide 15.

原物料預期將帶來約 1 億美元的有利因素。Goodyear Forward 在本季將帶來約 9,000 萬美元的效益。通膨、關稅及其他成本將形成約 2 億美元的不利因素。以全年計，這些成本將增加約 4.2 億美元，較我們 2 月電話會議時的預估減少約 8,000 萬美元，主要受 IEEPA 關稅調整 6,000 萬美元所帶動，其中 4,600 萬美元已於第一季認列。最後，Dunlop 與 Chemical 的出售使第二季獲利基礎降低 4,300 萬美元。其他財務假設如投影片 15 所示。

Given the uncertain environment, we have reduced planned capital expenditures to USD725 million. Our global tax rate will continue to be unusually high and sensitive to changes in country mix. Finally, while our working capital for the year could be shaped by both timing and levels of volume and commodity rates, we will continue to target a working capital inflow at year-end.

鑑於不確定的環境，我們已將計畫資本支出下調至 7.25 億美元。我們的全球稅率將持續異常偏高，且對各國家組合變動相當敏感。最後，雖然本年度營運資金可能同時受時點、銷量水準與大宗商品價格影響，我們仍將持續以年底營運資金流入為目標。

With that, we will open the line for your questions.

接下來，我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) James Mulholland, Deutsche Bank.

(接線員指示) 德意志銀行 James Mulholland。

Good morning, thank you for taking my questions. I just wanted to dig in a little bit on the raw materials headwind in the back half of the year. Given the volatility, I was wondering if you could share some thoughts on the sensitivity of SOI based on oil prices. I mean, we've seen a pretty material move yesterday and then again this morning, so it'd be helpful if we could ballpark the impacts on the guide. I guess put another way, I'm not sure what the oil price the current guide incorporates is, but if oil were to change USD5 or USD10, could you give us some sense of what that sort of benefit might look like?

早安，謝謝讓我提問。我想再深入了解一下今年下半年原物料不利因素的部分。考量波動性，我想請教你們能否分享一些關於 SOI 對油價變動敏感度的看法。我的意思是，我們昨天看到相當明顯的波動，今天早上又再波動一次，所以如果能大致估算對指引的影響會很有幫助。換句話說，我不確定目前指引納入的油價水準是多少，但如果油價變動 5 美元或 10 美元，你們能否讓我們大概了解一下可能帶來的效益會是什麼樣子？

Good morning. This is Christina. Thanks for the question. Our spot prices that are noted here in our first quarter conference call are pooled as of April 29. That equates to a crude oil closing price of about USD106 per barrel. Obviously with the volatility we've seen yesterday, you know, some impact on the forward outlook. Obviously, there's been a significant amount of volatility. We do provide, in our supplemental information on our website, sensitivities to changes in raw materials.

早安。我是 Christina。謝謝你的問題。我們在第一季電話會議中提到的即期價格，是彙整截至 4 月 29 日的數據。這相當於原油收盤價約每桶 106 美元。顯然，鑑於我們昨天看到的波動，對未來展望會有一些影響。很明顯地，波動幅度相當大。我們也在官網的補充資訊中提供原物料變動的敏感度資料。

With oil in particular, you're going to want to pay attention to synthetic rubber inputs like butadiene and styrene, which are levered more toward oil than some of the other input costs. We also see a strong correlation to pigments, chemicals, and oils, which are also a significant portion of our raw material buy.

就油價而言，你會需要特別留意合成橡膠的投入項目，例如丁二烯與苯乙烯，這些相較其他投入成本更與油價連動。我們也看到顏料、化學品與油品與油價有高度相關，而這些同樣占我們原物料採購相當大的比重。

Got it. Thank you. I guess recognizing that you do have index pricing agreements in place for OE tires, but that's on a lag, so you won't probably see any help there at least until fourth quarter. Our sense is that some competitors have started to push through price increases on replacement to help offset any raw materials impacts for the year. Understanding there was a 4%-6% price increase last year in North America, would you look to do something similar, and could we expect a benefit from that in the back half of the year to help offset some of those headwinds?

了解。謝謝。我想在理解你們對 OE 輪胎確實有指數化定價協議，但那會有滯後，因此至少要到第四季才可能看到一些幫助。我們的觀察是，有些競爭對手已開始在替換市場推動漲價，以協助抵銷今年原物料的影響。考量去年北美有 4%–6% 的漲價，你們是否會考慮採取類似作法？我們是否可預期下半年會因此帶來一些效益，以抵銷部分不利因素？

You're right. I would say about a third of our business is linked to indexed agreements for increases in raw materials. Those do reset on a lag. On average, that takes about six months or so. We do have this timing mismatch with a significant increase in raw materials that you're pointing out. That's the first point.

你說得沒錯。我會說大約三分之一的業務與原物料上漲的指數化協議連動。這些確實會在滯後後重設。平均而言，大約需要六個月左右。因此，對於你所指出的原物料大幅上漲，我們確實存在這樣的時點不匹配。這是第一點。

Up until now, I can say we have announced price increases in EMEA for consumer. That's about a 4% increase, and in commercial, about a 7%-8% increase earlier in April-May timeframe. We will obviously look to continue to increase a price mix to offset the headwinds that we're seeing in raw materials as well as, you know, take action on costs to manage through the current volatility.

截至目前，我可以說我們已在EMEA地區的消費者業務宣布調漲價格。大約是4%的漲幅；而在商用業務方面，約在4月至5月期間較早時點調漲了約7%至8%。我們顯然會持續透過提高價格／產品組合來抵消我們在原物料方面所看到的逆風，同時也會採取成本行動，以因應目前的波動。

Great. Thank you very much.

很好。非常感謝。

James Picariello, BNP.

James Picariello，BNP。

This is Jake on for James. Just at a baseline, how are you thinking about volumes in the second half? I realize, you know, this is a tough question to answer just given some of the volatility. Just based on my math, if we assume, you know 1% OE and replacement growth in the second half, SOI for the year should be somewhere in the USD600 million range. Are we thinking about that right? Thank you.

我是Jake，代James發言。先從基本面來看，你們如何看待下半年銷量？我知道，考量到一些波動，這確實很難回答。按我的計算，如果我們假設下半年OE與替換市場各成長1%，那麼全年SOI應該會落在約6億美元的區間。我們這樣理解對嗎？謝謝。

Maybe I'll start and Mark can chime in. I would say the overall forecast hasn't changed materially when we think about the flow, in that we do expect volume to improve sequentially each quarter on an absolute basis. We still should get to year-over-year improvements in the second half. Obviously, still dependent on consumer demand and some volatility we may see in VMT just related to gas prices. Having said that, we are annualizing some of the Q1 share loss in Americas, which equates to about 2 million-2.5 million units lower volume in the second through the fourth quarter versus our February outlook.

也許我先回答，Mark也可以補充。我會說，當我們看整體走勢時，整體預測並沒有出現重大變化；我們確實預期在絕對值上，每一季的銷量都會逐季改善。我們仍應該能在下半年達到年對年改善。當然，仍取決於消費者需求，以及我們可能在VMT上看到的一些波動，這與油價有關。話雖如此，我們把第一季在美洲的市占流失做了年化處理，這相當於第二季到第四季的銷量，較我們2月的展望少約200萬至250萬條。

Maybe just to tack on to that, right. As far as what did happen in the first quarter, right. When you think about the Americas volume specifically, and it is, you know, it's about a third, a third, a third. When you think about destocking is about a third of the volume delta in the Americas. Our optimizing the portfolio, as we've shared with you guys over the last two years, you know, moving out of the lower to no profit pool, lower rim size pieces, is, you know, we had planned for that through the process. So that's about 33% of it.

再補充一下。就第一季實際發生的情況而言，當你特別看美洲的銷量時，大致可以分成三分之一、三分之一、三分之一。其中，去庫存約占美洲銷量差異的三分之一。我們在過去兩年已與各位分享的產品組合優化，也就是退出低至無利潤池、較小輪圈尺寸的產品，這部分我們在流程中原本就有規劃。所以這也約占33%。

Then we saw a definitely increased competition in the fourth quarter, particularly on the lower rim sizes with very aggressive pricing in that. As we've shared with you guys as well, we are not chasing profit into a non-profitable zone, right? We, sorry, chasing volume into a non-profitable zone. We've continued our, you know, absolutely our roadmap of moving up and proof points to believe, as we shared, you know, we released 40% more new products in the higher rim size last year around the world. Proof points on AP, right? We were substantially up. We were up nearly 3, 4 percentage points. I think 4.

接著我們在第四季看到競爭明顯加劇，特別是在較小輪圈尺寸上，出現非常激進的定價。我們也跟各位分享過，我們不會在無利可圖的區域追逐利潤，對吧？抱歉，是不會在無利可圖的區域追逐銷量。我們持續推進我們的路線圖、也就是往更高階移動；而且有一些佐證：如同我們分享的，去年我們在全球較大輪圈尺寸領域推出的新產品多了40%。以AP（平均售價）來看也有佐證，對吧？我們大幅上升。我們上升了將近3到4個百分點。我想是4個百分點。

We moved from 51%-55%, 18 and above, with record SOI and AP for the quarter. In EMEA as well, great proof point there of moving up. As well, we've launched the Cooper to replace the Dunlop volumes. We're marching ahead of our launch ramp program with great, really great receipt from customers and end consumers. We feel very positive about EMEA and really securing that strong tier two marketplace for EMEA. In the Americas, again, we continue our mix-up there. We have moved up from a 42% to 50% greater than 18 and above year-over-year in our consumer replacement.

我們把18吋及以上的占比從51%提升到55%，本季SOI與AP都創下紀錄。在EMEA也是如此，往高階移動有很好的佐證。此外，我們已推出Cooper以取代Dunlop的銷量。我們的上市爬坡計畫正持續推進，客戶與終端消費者的回饋非常、真的非常好。我們對EMEA非常正面，並且確信能鞏固EMEA強勁的第二梯隊市場地位。在美洲方面，同樣地，我們持續改善產品組合。在消費者替換市場，我們18吋及以上的占比年對年已從42%提升到50%。

We continue to launch the new products into the marketplace. Just last weekend, we had our big launch on our new Eagle tires globally, but starting here in the US, to fill those white spaces we've shared with you guys before. We feel very good that we've got the right products, especially as we think about kind of a K-shaped economy, of the more resilient pricing and a little bit more Teflon proof, shall we say, in terms of the pricing in those upper rim sizes.

我們持續把新產品推向市場。就在上週末，我們在全球推出全新的Eagle輪胎大型上市活動，但先從美國開始，以填補我們先前與各位分享過的空白區。我們覺得非常好，因為我們擁有正確的產品；尤其當我們思考某種K型經濟時，在那些較大輪圈尺寸上，定價更具韌性，也可以說在定價方面更「不沾鍋」。

Thank you. Could you just provide an update on the trade environment? Based on our tracking, it looks like tire imports into the US are finally starting to fall off a little bit. In EMEA, it looks like the European Commission might be set to implement some duties on Chinese imports on the next couple of months. You can talk about both what you're seeing and what the potential benefit could be there. Thank you.

謝謝。你能否更新一下貿易環境？根據我們的追蹤，看起來輪胎進口到美國終於開始有些下滑。在EMEA，看起來歐盟執委會可能準備在接下來幾個月對中國進口產品實施一些關稅。你可以談談你們看到的情況，以及這可能帶來的潛在好處。謝謝。

Sure. Maybe just to start on the EMEA front. By mid-summer, we're anticipating that the EU will give their ruling in terms of the tariffs on Chinese tires coming into Europe. You know, we hope we'll have news for that as we do our second quarter announcement, but that's the latest info we have, is mid-summer they'll be making the announcement on that. In terms of the US, with the lower imports, we did see some destocking.

當然。也許先從EMEA談起。我們預期到仲夏前後，歐盟將就中國輪胎進入歐洲的關稅作出裁決。你知道，我們希望在第二季公告時能有相關消息，但我們目前掌握的最新資訊是：他們會在仲夏左右就此作出宣布。至於美國方面，進口量下降，我們確實看到一些去庫存。

As you guys know, last year, there were the pre-buys around the tariff. There were lots of things with the tariffs moving a lot throughout the year and a big stocking of product. We do see that starting to destock. Christina?

各位也知道，去年因關稅因素出現提前採購。全年關稅有很多變動，導致許多情況發生，並且出現大量備貨。我們確實看到現在開始去庫存。Christina？

I don't have a lot to add. I can maybe layer on some statistics. You know, the non-member imports in North America were down about 7% in the first quarter, which is a positive trend. Having said that, they do remain at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. I think when you couple that with the elevated raw material costs, we think that's constructive as we think about, you know, the layout for imports in the coming quarters.

我沒有太多補充。我或許可以補充一些統計數據。你知道，北美非成員國的進口在第一季下降約7%，這是一個正向趨勢。話雖如此，與歷史期間相比，其水準仍相對偏高。我認為，若再結合原物料成本居高不下，我們覺得這對於我們思考未來幾季的進口態勢是偏建設性的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ross MacDonald, Citi.

Ross MacDonald，花旗。

Yes, thank you. Three questions from my side. The first one just on that destock that you're calling out in North America. How far through that process do you think you are? Maybe you could talk a little bit about whether there's further destock ahead of us in Q2, or if that process is largely done now. Then within that, how you would assess the Goodyear inventories within the dealer network in the US and whether there's some opportunity to gain back some share in Q2 by topping up dealers. Second question on mix specifically.

是的，謝謝。我這邊有三個問題。第一個是關於你們提到北美的去庫存。你們認為目前大概進行到什麼程度？也許你可以談談第二季是否還會有進一步去庫存，或是這個過程現在大致已完成。另外，在此之中，你們如何評估固特異在美國經銷商通路內的庫存水位？以及是否有機會在第二季透過補貨給經銷商來收復一些市占？第二個問題是關於產品組合，具體來說。

I know you don't guide on mix, given the points you called out, Mark, around the K-shaped economy, the higher rim size share gains that you're making, how should we think about mix more structurally within Goodyear? Is there any steer you can give us for 2026 and beyond on sort of structural mix benefits from that work you're doing cutting the lower value add SKUs?

我知道你們不會就組合（mix）提供指引，但鑑於你提到的幾點，Mark，像是 K 型經濟、你們在較大輪圈尺寸占比提升所帶來的市占增長，我們應該如何更結構性地看待固特異（Goodyear）內部的產品組合？對於 2026 年及以後，你能否就你們正在進行、透過削減較低附加價值 SKU 所帶來的結構性組合效益，給我們一些方向？

Then just a final question on US trucks. You know, looks like on some of the freight data that the activity troughed around January. Just be curious what you're seeing maybe on April trading, if there is a little bit of momentum coming back to the freight activity. Linked to that, whether you're also giving up some share on the truck side and trying to avoid sort of lower value add products or if that's specific to the consumer business. Thank you.

最後一個問題是關於美國卡車市場。你知道，從一些貨運數據來看，活動量似乎在 1 月左右觸底。想請教你們在 4 月的交易情況看到什麼，貨運活動是否有一些動能回升。以及與此相關的，你們是否也在卡車端讓出一些市占，以避免偏低附加價值的產品，還是這只針對消費者業務。謝謝。

Maybe I'll start on the first question.

也許我先回答第一個問題。

Sure

好的。

which is destocking. I think particularly in North America or the US, we did lay out, you know, our outlook for the consumer replacement industry in the second quarter, which is significantly better than Q1, but still negative. I think that indicates that maybe there's slightly more destocking yet to go because it's a little bit more than the weakness we're seeing currently in sell out. Dependent all still on the price mix environment.

也就是去庫存（destocking）。我認為，特別是在北美或美國，我們確實已經說明了第二季對消費者替換胎產業的展望，會明顯好於第一季，但仍然是負成長。我想這表示可能還有一些去庫存尚未完成，因為這個幅度比我們目前在終端銷售（sell-out）看到的疲弱還要更大一些。一切仍取決於價格／組合（price mix）的環境。

Sometimes we do see pre-buy if there is a significant move in overall pricing across the industry, that can instigate some pre-buy. Having said that, with the uncertainty around the consumer, uncertainty around vehicle miles traveled, I'm not sure that I would say we're expecting that here over the course of the next couple quarters.

有時如果全產業整體定價出現顯著變動，我們確實會看到提前備貨（pre-buy），這可能會引發一些提前採購。但話說回來，考量到消費者的不確定性、行駛里程（vehicle miles traveled）的不確定性，我不確定我會說我們預期未來幾個季度會出現這種情況。

The second question was on structural mix over the course of the rest of the year. As we talked about this on our fourth quarter call, we did say we would expect mix to improve and stabilize in the second half of 2026, largely due to the fact that we're comping through the commercial truck weakness that began in the second quarter and third quarter of last year. Structurally, we should see a much stronger mix for us coming out of the second quarter. The third question was on truck. Maybe I'll turn that one over to Mark.

第二個問題是關於今年剩餘時間的結構性組合（structural mix）。如同我們在第四季電話會議中談到的，我們確實表示預期組合會在 2026 年下半年改善並趨於穩定，主要是因為我們將跨過去年第二季與第三季開始的商用卡車疲弱所形成的比較基期。從結構面來看，我們在第二季之後應該會看到更強的組合表現。第三個問題是關於卡車。也許我把這題交給 Mark。

Yeah. For truck. As we look at the commercial trends, right? The fundamentals of the market are definitely looking better. We need to see that sustain in quarter two and on through the rest of the year. It obviously takes some time for that to flow through the market. We've seen the capacity of the trucking industry tightening up, the freight rates improving. We're starting to see the OEMs increasing their builds. You know, the PMI or the purchasing index has been above 50 now for quite a few months, which is a key towards that freight activity picking up.

是的。關於卡車。當我們觀察商用趨勢時，對吧？市場基本面確實看起來更好。我們需要看到這種改善在第二季持續，並延續到今年剩餘時間。顯然，這需要一些時間才能傳導到市場。我們看到卡車運輸產業的運能正在收緊、運價在改善。我們開始看到 OEM 提高產量。你知道，PMI 或採購指數已經連續好幾個月高於 50，這是貨運活動回升的一個關鍵指標。

In talking, you know, closely with our customers through our solution business and our fleet services, you know, we again, we see the OEM piece moving up substantially over a low number, granted, but moving up substantially. We get a nice pull from our fleet customers. We know there's a lot of talk from them in terms of being more positive in their thinking and in terms of the buy. What we have To your last point, question was really around the lower end of the products. We have been just like the consumer side, right?

透過我們的解決方案業務與車隊服務，我們與客戶保持密切溝通；我們再次看到 OEM 端在一個偏低的基數上（這點要承認），但確實在大幅回升。我們也從車隊客戶那裡獲得不錯的拉動。我們知道他們在談論時，心態上更偏正面，對採購也更積極。至於你最後一點，你的問題其實是關於較低端的產品。我們一直在做，就像消費者端一樣，對吧？

We have specifically been rationalizing those low margin products and getting out of those to really focus on our premium business, particularly the tractor tire business, you know, for the truck drive itself, the drive tires, as well as our retreading operations, and really working to robustly improve our efficiencies around the world from our solution and service business.

我們已經在有針對性地精簡（rationalizing）那些低毛利產品並退出，真正聚焦在我們的高端業務，特別是牽引車輪胎業務，也就是卡車本身的驅動輪胎（drive tires），以及我們的翻新胎（retreading）業務；同時也在努力從我們的解決方案與服務業務面，全面提升全球效率。

We, you know, we've got a big lift that we're working on. The team is super focused on our cost structure and the value proposition for our fleet customers around the world. So far, we're on track with those plans through the year, and it looks that we'll continue to improve that through the year.

我們正在推動一項很大的提升計畫。團隊非常專注於我們的成本結構，以及我們對全球車隊客戶的價值主張。到目前為止，我們今年的執行進度符合計畫，看起來也會在今年持續改善。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Healy, Northcoast Research.

John Healy，Northcoast Research。

Morning, John.

早安，John。

John, your line is open. Please check your mute.

John，你的線路已開通。請檢查是否靜音。

Sorry about that. You'd figure I'd figure that out by now. Wanted to ask about the competitive position. I think when you look at the release and I know you guys kind of expected a slower start on the US replacement market. In the categories in which maybe like for like tires are being kind of moved at certain dealers or with certain partners, is there a way to think about just like kind of what your organic SKUs were doing and maybe how those performed? We could kind of, you know, put your performance kind of in more what I would say reasonable parameters to judge that.

抱歉。你會以為我到現在應該已經搞懂了。我想問一下競爭地位。我想當你看新聞稿時，而且我知道你們其實預期美國替換胎市場會有一個較慢的開局。在某些類別中，類似輪胎（like-for-like tires）在特定經銷商或特定合作夥伴那邊被轉移（moved）的情況下，有沒有一種方式可以去看你們自有（organic）的 SKU 表現如何、以及它們的表現？這樣我們就能把你們的表現放在我認為更合理的評估框架下來判斷。

Yeah, maybe I would start, John, make sure I understand the question right. Is the You know, if we think about what Christina said in terms of, you know, sell out was stronger than sell in, right? There was the destocking that happened from the buildup over quarter three, quarter four of last year. You know, we were still as well in contract negotiations with some of our larger customers that have been settled out. From that standpoint, as we look through that, in terms of the volume profile going forward, we're very pleased with our mix up.

好的，John，也許我先確認我是否正確理解你的問題。也就是說，如果我們回想 Christina 提到的：終端銷售（sell-out）強於出貨（sell-in），對吧？去年第三季、第四季累積的庫存帶來了去庫存。你知道，我們也仍在與一些較大型客戶進行合約談判，而這些已經告一段落。從這個角度來看，當我們把這些因素剔除後，展望未來的銷量走勢，我們對組合改善感到非常滿意。

If I understand organic SKU, right, of our mix with our power lines in terms of products like MaxLife 2, right? The Eagle that I just mentioned, that we've, completely, you know, product development's done a super job to reinvigorate and bring new products into the marketplace for that, as well as our WeatherReady twos, obviously performed very well in the marketplace.

如果我理解你說的自有 SKU（organic SKU），也就是我們在主力產品線（power lines）上的組合，例如 MaxLife 2，對吧？我剛提到的 Eagle，我們的產品開發團隊做得非常出色，讓產品重新煥發活力並把新產品帶進市場；另外，我們的 WeatherReady 2 也顯然在市場上表現非常好。

On those power lines, those 18 and above that we have been launching over the course of the last 18 months, and we've got another 36 months of a very robust pipeline coming in, that's why we feel very strong to the You know, in terms of the organic growth of our SKUs, if we will, that we are much more meaningfully participating in the higher profit pool, and that will continue to grow as we've got our marketing plans behind it, we've got our sales enablement teams out in the marketplace, and we've got the products to do it with.

在這些主力產品線上，也就是我們在過去 18 個月推出的 18 吋以上產品，而且未來還有另外 36 個月非常強勁的產品管線要導入，這就是為什麼我們對——你知道——就我們自有 SKU 的有機成長而言（如果可以這麼說），我們感到非常有信心：我們更有意義地參與到更高獲利的利潤池（higher profit pool），而且隨著我們的行銷計畫支持、銷售賦能團隊在市場上推進，以及我們具備相應產品，這種成長將會持續。

That's helpful. Just two quick follow-ups. I know Walmart's always been a big customer of yours, and was wondering if you could talk to the relationship there, if anything has changed there or you're working with them as kinda of, you know, moved along in a certain direction, just if that's impacting the numbers in a meaningful way at all. Secondly, are there any further, like, price increases baked into kinda of some of the numbers that you guys have talked to us about the price mix headwinds? Thanks.

這很有幫助。再追問兩個很快的問題。我知道沃爾瑪（Walmart）一直是你們的大客戶，想請你談談你們與他們的合作關係：是否有任何變化，或你們是否正與他們合作、隨著他們在某個方向上推進；以及這是否在任何程度上對數字造成有意義的影響。第二，是否還有任何進一步的漲價已經反映在你們提到的某些數字中，尤其是你們談到價格／組合逆風（price mix headwinds）的部分？謝謝。

We, you know, we don't normally share on a particular customer on this call, right? We can provide some additional color. What I would say is as we look to across all of our portfolio, again, we are purposefully mixing up the portfolio, refreshening specific SKUs in certain rim sizes where the profit pools are. What I can say, they're a great customer and have been for 40+ years, right? We have a very strong relationship and continue to do so. And as we look at that and the growth of brick-and-mortar-- sorry, the growth of e-com along with brick-and-mortar, we're being pretty successful in that arena with them as well.

我們，你知道，我們通常不會在這通電話上分享某一位特定客戶的情況，對吧？我們可以提供一些額外的補充說明。我要說的是，當我們檢視整個產品組合時，再次強調，我們正有意地調整組合配置，在利潤池所在的特定輪圈尺寸上更新特定SKU。我能說的是，他們是很棒的客戶，而且已經合作超過40年了，對吧？我們的關係非常穩固，並且會持續如此。而當我們看待這一點，以及電商的成長（抱歉，是電商的成長）與實體通路並行時，我們在與他們合作的這個領域也相當成功。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli，TD Cowen。

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

很好。謝謝。各位早安。

Morning.

早安。

Morning. Wanted to ask a question on some of the, I guess, upcoming cost or maybe footprint actions you alluded to. I'm curious if maybe you can roughly size those relative to the original Goodyear Forward plan. Ultimately, I guess what I'd like to try to get at is as you plan these next actions, what's the timetable that you're trying to target in this new environment to get back to a 10% SOI margin?

早安。我想問一個關於你們提到的一些即將發生的成本或可能的產能／據點（footprint）行動的問題。我很好奇，你們是否能大致說明這些行動相對於原本的 Goodyear Forward 計畫的規模。最終我想了解的是，當你們規劃這些下一步行動時，在這個新的環境下，你們希望以什麼樣的時間表，回到10%的 SOI 利潤率？

Itay, I'll start. We talked a lot about footprint actions in this call specifically. Obviously, we're targeting restructuring actions that have a very near-term payback. The restructurings that we've completed over the last several years have all been focused in other regions outside of the Americas. Just given where volume is, in particular in the Americas this quarter, you know, our restructuring is going to be focused there, which will, just because of the nature of the high cost base, usually deliver a very fast payback. That would be point number one.

Itay，我先開始。我們在這通電話中特別談了很多關於產能／據點行動。很明顯地，我們鎖定的是能在短期內回收的重整行動。過去幾年我們完成的重整，全部都聚焦在美洲以外的其他地區。考量到本季的量，尤其是在美洲，你知道，我們的重整將會聚焦在那裡；而且由於其高成本基礎的特性，通常能帶來非常快速的回收。這是第一點。

A lot of our other initiatives, nearer term that we're adding to the coffers as we think about cost outs over the next several quarters and on through 2027, we're looking at raw material consolidation to help bring meaningful cost out. Simplification within our factories, driving efficiencies. Indirect spend, control cost towers on a lot of the different levels of spending across the organization. Of course, optimizing all other SG&A as well.

至於我們其他一些較近期限的措施，當我們思考未來幾季、並一路延伸到2027年的降本時，我們正在看原物料整併，以協助帶來具意義的成本下降。在工廠內部做簡化、推動效率提升。間接支出方面，透過成本塔（cost towers）在組織各層級的多項支出上進行控管。當然，也會同步優化其他所有的SG&A。

Maybe just to tack on, Itay, right? It's, you know, we're in execution mode of building on the, you know, the integrity and the credibility that we've built with you all, with our shareholder base, and our associates around the world of the Goodyear Forward program, right? As we've shared before, we really have it embedded in our DNA, in our governance, in our KPIs, in our actions, and we have a very robust roadmap of what we're doing.

也許再補充一下，Itay，對吧？你知道，我們正處於執行模式，持續建立在 Goodyear Forward 計畫上、我們與各位、與股東基礎，以及與全球同仁之間所建立的誠信與可信度之上，對吧？如同我們先前分享的，這已經深植於我們的DNA、我們的治理架構、我們的KPI與我們的行動之中，而且我們有一份非常扎實的路線圖，清楚列出我們正在做的事。

While we don't have a formal announcement today, of what the details of that are with you, obviously being very sensitive to that, you know, it is our intention to share with you guys coming up on the specific cost out value creation plans. It is absolutely in keeping with the principles that we've had in Goodyear Forward.

雖然我們今天沒有正式對各位宣布其細節內容，顯然我們對此非常謹慎，但你知道，我們的意圖是接下來會與各位分享具體的降本與價值創造計畫。這絕對符合我們在 Goodyear Forward 中一貫秉持的原則。

It's, as we shared, right, we continue to top off the cost reduction value creation actions that we had in Goodyear Forward on a very disciplined way, function by function, as Christina mentioned, direct material, indirect material, our product rationalization, making sure that our footprint and specifically our cost flexing is in line with volume demand. It's the continued journey that we're on there, and we continue to be confident in our ability to execute that credibly as we've been doing here over the last two and a half years.

如同我們分享的，對吧，我們會以非常嚴謹的方式，在 Goodyear Forward 既有的降本與價值創造行動之上持續加碼，逐一按職能推進；正如Christina提到的，包含直接材料、間接材料、產品精簡（product rationalization），並確保我們的產能／據點配置，特別是成本彈性調整（cost flexing），能與需求量相匹配。這是一段持續的旅程，而我們也持續對自身能夠如過去兩年半一樣、以可信且可交付的方式執行充滿信心。

That's all very helpful. Thank you for that detail. Maybe just two quick follow-ups. First, on the CapEx cut up for the year, maybe talk a little bit about where that's coming from and how sustainable that is going forward. A second quick housekeeping, is the IEEPA adjustment expected to be also a cash benefit this year?

這些都非常有幫助。謝謝你們提供這些細節。也許再兩個快速追問。第一，關於今年資本支出（CapEx）上調的削減，能否談談主要來自哪些方面，以及未來的可持續性如何。第二個快速的例行問題：IEEPA調整今年是否也預期會帶來現金上的利益？

Sure, Itay. On CapEx in particular, you know, obviously we're reacting somewhat to the current demand environment, which brings down the need. As we think about maintenance in the factories, utilization rates are lower than we would have expected, and we are also applying a new best cost methodology across all major categories of capital spend to help control costs. More to come on that, but hopefully, as we even move into next year and years beyond, we're able to take capital spending to much lower levels than you've seen from us historically.

當然，Itay。就CapEx而言，你知道，很明顯我們在某種程度上是因應目前的需求環境，這也降低了相關需求。當我們思考工廠維護時，產能利用率低於我們原先預期；同時，我們也在所有主要資本支出類別導入新的最佳成本方法（best cost methodology）以協助控管成本。後續會有更多資訊，但希望即使進入明年以及更往後的年度，我們也能把資本支出降到比你們過去看到我們的歷史水準更低的程度。

On IEEPA, in particular, you know, the cash inflow, very, very difficult for us to say if that comes later this year or early next. You know, we have, you know, booked the receivable based on the Supreme Court ruling, and we'll continue to update you as we move through the rest of the year.

至於IEEPA，特別是現金流入，你知道，我們很難判斷會在今年稍晚或明年初發生。你知道，我們已根據最高法院的裁決入帳應收款，並會在今年剩餘時間持續向各位更新進展。

Maybe just to tack on to the CapEx piece as well. You know, again, as Christina mentioned, right, we've done a lot of work, you know, over the last, let's say, year and a half, with our advanced global engineering team towards developing of those best cost solutions, but also best spec solutions, right? We have completely rethought how we go to market for CapEx in terms of bundle buying, in terms of looking at, yeah, efficiency of where to have it made, but also looking at what we truly need in the operations as we modernize factories and work on our cost footprint.

也許也再補充一下CapEx的部分。你知道，再次如Christina所提，對吧，過去大約一年半，我們的先進全球工程團隊做了大量工作，致力於開發那些最佳成本方案，同時也包含最佳規格方案（best spec solutions），對吧？我們已徹底重新思考我們在CapEx上的採購與導入方式，包括套裝採購（bundle buying）、包括評估在哪裡製造最有效率，同時也重新檢視在我們推動工廠現代化、改善成本版圖（cost footprint）時，營運上真正需要的是什麼。

You know, we're seeing significant reductions in our CapEx for the ability to produce same as, if more, same as or better quality. We feel very good about that our CapEx dollars will go much further. I wouldn't think about it as much of a big reduction in the CapEx bill of starving the future. It really is about feeding the future on a much more efficient base.

你知道，我們看到CapEx出現顯著下降，同時仍能生產同等、甚至更多的產出，並達到同等或更好的品質。我們對此非常有信心：我們的CapEx資金將能發揮更大的效益。我不會把這視為大幅削減CapEx預算、以致犧牲未來。這其實是以更有效率的基礎來投資未來。

That's, that's very helpful. Thank you.

這、這非常有幫助。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

（接線員指示）Ryan Brinkman，JPMorgan。

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to continue, you know, with these questions asking around the impact of raw materials, commodity prices, offsets, et cetera. Firstly, maybe starting with the indirect impact of higher commodities, because I recall during the pandemic, you actually met quite well with the challenge of passing along the higher raw material input prices, but obviously found it more challenging to contend with all of the unusual indirect impacts of the higher costs of higher diesel, freight, ocean shipping, logistics, electricity, natural gas, et cetera.

嗨。謝謝讓我提問。我想延續這些問題，詢問原物料、商品價格、抵銷等因素的影響。首先，也許先從大宗商品上漲的間接影響談起，因為我記得在疫情期間，你們其實相當成功地把較高的原物料投入成本轉嫁出去，但顯然在面對所有不尋常的間接影響時更具挑戰，例如柴油、運費、海運、物流、電力、天然氣等成本上升。

I think there were some unique aspects of that particular environment. I just wanted to check in with regard to how these other costs might be tracking, which in some ways do find their way back to the same Middle East conflict impacting, you know, raws more directly. You know, I think you account for this mostly, in the when it exceeds the general inflation rate in the other costs and tariffs bucket, I suppose, of the SOI bridge. How should we think about that driver trending going forward?

我認為那個特定環境確實有一些獨特之處。我只是想確認一下這些其他成本目前的走勢如何；在某些方面，它們也會回到同一個中東衝突的影響上，進而更直接地影響到原物料。你們應該大多已在 SOI bridge 中的「其他成本與關稅」項下反映了這點，我想，尤其是在其增幅超過一般通膨率的部分。我們應該如何看待這個驅動因素未來的趨勢？

Thanks, Ryan, for the question. We have headwinds of about USD40 million, mostly in increased transportation, a little bit of energy in that other cost bucket, just as you pointed out. That is more than offset by the IEEPA tariff refund adjustment, as well as some other cost reductions as we've been discussing so far on this call.

謝謝你，Ryan，提問。我們大約有 4,000 萬美元的不利因素（headwinds），主要來自運輸成本上升，在那個其他成本項下也有一點能源成本，正如你所指出的。不過，這些影響已被 IEEPA 關稅退稅調整，以及我們在本次電話會議中迄今討論的一些其他成本降低措施所抵銷，且抵銷幅度更大。

I think, you know, largely when we also think about energy in EMEA, I mentioned in the prepared remarks that we have hedged out or fixed a lot of the contractual agreements for our energy costs in EMEA pre-war. That's 75%-80% of those rates were fixed before the war. We feel really good about the position, and we'll monitor, you know, the environment for volatility and continue to update you as we move through the year.

我想，當我們也考量 EMEA 的能源時，我在事先準備的發言中提到，我們在戰前就已透過避險或固定合約的方式，鎖定了 EMEA 很大一部分的能源成本。其中約 75%–80% 的費率是在戰前就已固定。我們對目前的部位感到非常有信心；我們也會持續監控環境的波動性，並在今年推進過程中持續向各位更新。

Okay, thanks. With regard to the offsets of restructuring and price mix against all this headwind, maybe starting with restructuring, obviously, I see you've increased the Goodyear Forward impact here from 335. It's only USD25 billion versus the raw net degradation for the full year looks, you know, USD300 million-ish, USD312 million or something. You dug deeper with Itay just now on the allusions in the prepared remarks, right, with regard to the restructuring actions. The payback activity, payback timing I thought was interesting.

好的，謝謝。關於重整（restructuring）與價格/組合（price mix）對這些不利因素的抵銷，先從重整談起：很明顯我看到你們把 Goodyear Forward 的影響提高到 335。但這只有 250 億美元，相較之下，全年原物料淨惡化看起來大概是 3 億美元左右，3.12 億美元之類的。你剛才和 Itay 更深入談到事先準備發言中提到的重整行動。我覺得回收（payback）活動與回收時點的說法很有意思。

Sounds like maybe workforce reductions in Americas that you're looking to maybe not pull the trigger on if the environment quickly resolves, is that how we should think about it? Also, what about magnitude? Because, yeah, it seems like really price mix, and that will be my next question, is the only thing that can really offset this headwind. What's the outlook for company-specific restructuring actions kind of under your control to be able to offset, like, how much of this incremental raw mass headwind, say, when we annualize it to next year, for example?

聽起來你們可能在美洲地區考慮人力縮減，但如果環境很快改善，你們可能不會按下扳機；我們應該這樣理解嗎？另外，規模呢？因為，是的，看起來真正能抵銷這些不利因素的只有價格/組合——這也是我下一個問題。就你們可控的公司特定重整行動而言，展望如何？能抵銷多少這種新增的原物料大幅不利因素——例如把它年化到明年來看？

Yeah, maybe Ryan, I can start and have Christina chime in. You know, as we think about, we really work very hard on our cost flex, our firm versus flexible cost within each of our factories around the world, right? We have intense governance around that, again, utilizing the principles of the Goodyear Forward in terms of the best cost practice, best quality practices across the plant and implementing those around the plant. Some of that involves flexing of manpower. Some of it involves waste reduction. You know, it's every element of manufacturing 101.

好的，Ryan，也許我先回答，然後請 Christina 補充。你知道，當我們在思考時，我們確實非常努力在成本彈性（cost flex）上，也就是在全球各工廠內部，固定成本與可變成本之間的配置，對吧？我們對此有非常嚴格的治理機制，同樣運用 Goodyear Forward 的原則，在各廠推行最佳成本作法、最佳品質作法。其中一部分涉及人力的彈性調整。一部分涉及減少浪費。你知道，這涵蓋了製造管理的每一個基本要素。

It really is about flexing our cost to match to match the volume and demand and also the mix of our products. You know, we have meaningfully moved products that are important for the portfolio into cost locations where we can make the proper returns on those. We've rationalized products. We've rationalized footprint, as you know, on the EMEA side.

這真的就是讓我們的成本能夠彈性調整，以匹配產量與需求，也匹配我們產品的組合。你知道，我們已把對產品組合很重要的產品，大幅移轉到成本更具優勢的地點生產，讓我們能在這些產品上取得適當的報酬。我們也精簡了產品。如你所知，我們在 EMEA 端也精簡了產能/據點布局（footprint）。

We continue to look at that all over the world to make sure, you know, as we move to global function and global manufacturing, part of that intention was, again, best landed costs for our customers and for our shareholders to make sure that we can hit the right returns and have a competitively priced product in the market. The other part of that price mix, again, is robustly changing our portfolio as we've shared, right?

我們持續在全球各地檢視這些事項，以確保——你知道，當我們走向全球職能與全球製造時，其中一個目的同樣是為了讓客戶與股東都能取得最佳到岸成本（best landed costs），確保我們能達到適當的報酬，並在市場上提供具競爭力定價的產品。而價格/組合的另一部分，同樣是如我們所分享的，積極調整我們的產品組合，對吧？

With filling out all of those blank spaces that Goodyear has not been participating in or where we were, the products were, the vitality or the freshness of those products were not appropriate. That's why we continue to march in each of those. It will lead to some additional restructuring obviously, but we, part of it is just normal day by day, you know, good cost management. Christina.

透過補齊固特異尚未參與的那些空白領域，或是我們原有產品在活力或新鮮度方面不夠到位的地方。這也是為什麼我們會在每一個領域持續推進。這顯然會帶來一些額外的重整，但其中一部分其實就是日常的——你知道——良好的成本管理。Christina。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah, I'll chime in. I think about these two buckets a little bit differently, Ryan, in the sense that, you know, we have a really strong track record of offsetting raw material inflation with price mix. We talked about, you know, sometimes seeing a structural lag because of OE RMI indexed agreements. Having said that, looking back through the history, you know, the inflation that we've seen in raw materials has been covered by actions all in and around price mix.

好的，我補充一下。Ryan，我對這兩個項目的看法稍有不同：我們在以價格/組合抵銷原物料通膨方面，有非常強的歷史紀錄。我們也談到過，有時會因為 OE RMI 指數化協議而出現結構性的時間落後。即便如此，回顧歷史，你知道，我們在原物料看到的通膨，基本上都已透過圍繞價格/組合的各項行動加以覆蓋。

When it comes to volume, and Mark just made these comments, you know, where we're seeing volume pressure, especially at the lower end of the market, just sort of dictates that we address that unabsorbed overhead with cost out actions in restructuring dollars. Those paybacks, you know, are generally 1-2 years, and they're going to be, you know, right now focused in our highest cost footprint. We can't share more details with you today, but we hope to be able to do that over the coming quarter.

至於銷量（volume），Mark 剛才也提到，你知道，當我們看到銷量壓力，尤其是在市場的低端區隔時，這就意味著我們必須透過重整相關的成本削減行動，來處理那些未吸收的製造費用（unabsorbed overhead）。這些回收期（paybacks）通常是 1–2 年，而且你知道，目前會聚焦在我們成本最高的產能/據點布局上。今天我們無法提供更多細節，但希望在接下來的一個季度能夠分享。

Okay, that's very helpful. Thanks. Just lastly here, get your thoughts on how things might play out and the impact on Goodyear in a couple different scenarios here. It's so hard to predict what's happening in the Middle East. You know, most of the time I'm thinking, oh my gosh, Brent Crude is going to stay at USD120, USD100. This is awful. It's going to continue like this. Then other days, a tweet comes up from the White House, and it's down 20% on the day, right? I mean, on the one hand, you sort of just addressed, I think you've got a good track record of passing along these higher costs.

好的，這非常有幫助。謝謝。最後想請教你們對未來可能的發展，以及在幾種不同情境下對固特異影響的看法。中東局勢真的很難預測。你知道，多數時候我會想，天啊，布蘭特原油會維持在每桶 120 美元、100 美元。這太糟了。會一直這樣下去。但有時候白宮發一則推文，當天就跌 20%，對吧？我的意思是，一方面，你們剛才算是回應了，我認為你們在把這些較高成本轉嫁出去方面有不錯的紀錄。

I think there was one time where you didn't, right? That was kinda of when they spiked up right at the end of 2016, early 2017 maybe, and then spiked right back down. I remember when oil fell the most in, you know, 30 years or whatnot the other week, I mean, hopefully, that is the case. Everything resolved very quickly, right, for the world. How do you anticipate and are you prepared for, do we have to consider that scenario also and maybe making it more complicated to pass along those costs? Of course, the price mix opportunity is, you know, not in a vacuum with the softer demand and higher inventory backdrop.

我記得有一次你們沒有做到，對吧？那大概是 2016 年底、2017 年初左右，價格在年底突然飆升，然後又很快回落。我記得前陣子那週油價出現了你知道、30 年來最大跌幅之類的情況——希望就是那樣。一切都能很快解決，對全世界而言都是如此，對吧？你們如何預期、以及是否已為那種情境做好準備？我們是否也必須把那種情境納入考量，因為它可能會讓成本轉嫁變得更複雜？當然，價格/組合的機會也不是在真空中存在的，因為需求較疲弱、庫存較高的背景仍在。

I guess even in the event that they were to stay elevated, you know, how much could you this time around maybe hope to be able to offset relative to prior scenarios? I know you do have a good track record for it, except for maybe the one time.

我想即使在它們維持在高位的情況下，你知道，這一次相較於先前的情境，你大概能期望抵銷多少呢？我知道你們在這方面的紀錄一向不錯，除了可能有一次例外。

Maybe I can start on it, right. You know, as mentioned, I think as we think about the K-shaped economy, right? We're seeing the greater than 18 pricing more resilient in the market. We see a lot of competitive price pressures in the below 18 rim size, as we shared earlier, as we, you know, do the competitive, the scrapings in the market, looking at sellout data from the published sources. As we look to that, right? That again, it goes back and really reinforces our strategy, which is to position Goodyear as the strong premium number 1 brand again, right? That's been our journey.

也許我可以先回答這個問題，對。你知道，如同提到的，我想當我們談到 K 型經濟時，對吧？我們看到大於 18 吋的定價在市場上更具韌性。我們在 18 吋以下的輪圈尺寸看到很大的競爭性價格壓力，正如我們先前分享的，當我們在市場上做競品比價、抓取資料，並查看已發布來源的終端銷售（sellout）數據時。當我們看這些時，對吧？這又回到並且真正強化了我們的策略，也就是再次把固特異（Goodyear）定位為強勢的高端第一品牌，對吧？這一直是我們走過的旅程。

It's why we continue on that. You know, being in a dogfight in the lower tiers of the marketplace, at a very different cost structural base, to Christina's point, is not the winning proposition, right? The winning proposition is the journey that we're on, which is to successfully gain. Again, proof points for us, again in AP, you know, up 4 percentage points to greater than 55%. Same thing on the in the US marketplace. We've been filling that out in EMEA as well. We feel good that that helps that resiliency and also the ability to pass those pricing needs forward into the marketplace.

這也是為什麼我們會持續走下去。你知道，在市場較低層級以非常不同的成本結構基礎（如 Christina 所說）去打價格戰，並不是致勝的命題，對吧？致勝的命題是我們正在走的這段旅程，也就是成功提升（市占/組合）。再說一次，對我們而言的佐證是，例如在亞太（AP），提升了 4 個百分點到超過 55%。美國市場也是同樣的情況。我們在歐洲、中東與非洲（EMEA）也在補齊這一塊。我們覺得這有助於提升韌性，也提升把必要的價格調整向市場傳導的能力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

Emmanuel Rosner，Wolfe Research。

Oh, great. Thank you so much. Christina, how should we think about free cash flow outlook for this year based on some of the puts and takes that you gave, obviously on the SOI, but also some actions to preserve cash? Within that, when we're thinking about some of these potential restructuring actions, you know, should we, in a sort of like budget within that also some, you know, extra cash for restructuring within, you know, this year's outlook?

哦，太好了。非常感謝。Christina，基於你提到的一些拉動與抵銷因素，尤其是 SOI 方面，但也包括一些保留現金的措施，我們應該如何看待今年的自由現金流展望？在此之中，當我們考慮一些潛在的重整行動時，你知道，我們是否也應該在今年的展望中，某種程度上像做預算一樣，把一些額外的重整現金支出也納入？

No, thanks, Emmanuel, for the question. I think you're right. We're definitely focused on free cash flow. I do think it's a little too early for us to settle on where we're going to land. I think we're going to need to get through the second quarter, see where raw material prices will fall out in our P&L over the course of Q3 and Q4. We have given you the drivers that we know today. Free cash flow is still though going to also be dependent on some of those variables.

不，謝謝你，Emmanuel，這個問題。我想你說得對。我們確實非常專注在自由現金流。但我確實認為現在要定下我們最終會落在哪個水準，還稍微早了一點。我想我們需要先走過第二季，看看原物料價格在第三季與第四季期間會如何反映在我們的損益表（P&L）中。我們已經把目前已知的驅動因素提供給你們。不過，自由現金流仍然也會取決於其中一些變數。

You noted we've reduced CapEx, and we're committed to managing the business for cash, and we feel really good about the balance sheet position. I would say our free cash flow doesn't contemplate any additional restructuring related to any upcoming announcement that we may make over the course of the next couple of quarters. I wouldn't expect that anything upcoming to impact our cash flow until next year.

你提到我們已降低資本支出（CapEx），而且我們承諾以現金為導向來管理業務，我們也對資產負債表狀況感到非常有信心。我會說，我們的自由現金流並未納入任何與我們可能在未來幾季內發布的公告相關的額外重整。我不預期接下來的任何事項會在明年之前影響我們的現金流。

Okay. No, that's, this is extremely helpful. In terms of, in the second quarter volume, I think that you're, you know, you give the various pieces. I'm not sure if I caught them all in terms of, you know, how you're thinking about it. I know historically you have sort of like an overall number in the slide. I think here it might be a little bit more complicated. Is there also more? Can you just go back over the pieces of how to think about second quarter volume, but also, is it a little bit more, you know, volatile? I guess why no, like, point estimate, this time in the slide?

好的。不，這非常有幫助。關於第二季的銷量，我想你們，你知道，你們提供了各個組成部分。我不確定我是否都聽到了，關於你們如何看待它的各個面向。我知道過去你們通常會在投影片上給一個整體數字。我想這次可能更複雜一些。是不是還有更多？你能不能再把如何看待第二季銷量的各個部分再講一遍？另外，它是不是會更，你知道，更波動？我想問的是，為什麼這次投影片上沒有像以往那樣給一個點估計？

I mean, the consumer demand environment is still subject to gasoline prices. I mean, we're pulling up the average gasoline prices last night and this morning, and it's above USD5 per gallon. Historically, we have seen a commensurate impact on vehicle miles traveled when we see gas prices spike. I think what we've given you is our best view and still an improvement for volume in Q2 relative to Q1 and sequential improvement as we move through the rest of the year. We're going to have to stay agile and continue to update you as to impacts on the consumer over the coming quarters.

我的意思是，消費者需求環境仍然會受到汽油價格影響。我的意思是，我們昨晚和今天早上查了平均汽油價格，已經高於每加侖 5 美元。歷史上，當我們看到油價飆升時，我們也看到車輛行駛里程（vehicle miles traveled）會受到相應影響。我想我們提供給你們的是我們目前最佳的判斷：第二季的銷量相較第一季會改善，並且在今年剩餘時間中會逐季改善。我們必須保持敏捷，並在未來幾季持續向你們更新對消費者的影響。

Got it. Thank you.

了解。謝謝。

Thank you. At this time, I will turn the call back to Mark Stewart for closing comments.

謝謝。此時我將把電話會議交回給 Mark Stewart 作結語。

Thank you guys for joining in today, and thank you for the questions. Really appreciate that. As you heard, right, we are absolutely taking and continue to take decisive actions to navigate through the current environment. We got a clear focus on cost, a clear focus of matching our cost structure with the demand structure of the market, and also keeping to a very strict portfolio discipline of moving up into the more premium product mix.

謝謝各位今天加入，也謝謝大家的提問。真的非常感謝。如各位所聽到的，對吧，我們絕對正在採取並持續採取果斷行動，以因應目前的環境。我們清楚聚焦在成本，清楚聚焦於讓我們的成本結構與市場需求結構相匹配，同時也嚴格遵守產品組合的紀律，往更高端的產品組合移動。

We're confident these actions are positioning us well and supporting our long-term strategy. As Christina mentioned, we are absolutely focused on our cash flow as well. With that, guys, we really appreciate you joining today. Again, thank you for the questions.

我們有信心這些行動正在讓我們處於有利位置，並支持我們的長期策略。如 Christina 提到的，我們也絕對專注在現金流。那麼，各位，我們非常感謝你們今天的參與。再次謝謝大家的提問。

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的時間與參與。您現在可以斷線。