葛蘭素史克 (GSK) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone.

大家好。

Welcome to today's call and webcast.

歡迎參加今天的電話會議和網路廣播。

The presentation was sent to our distribution list by email, and you can also find it on gsk.com.

該簡報已透過電子郵件發送至我們的分發列表，您也可以在 gsk.com 上找到它。

Please turn to slide 2.

請翻到投影片 2。

This is the usual Safe Harbor statement.

這是通常的安全港聲明。

We will comment on our performance using constant exchange rates, or CER, and excluding COVID solutions, unless stated otherwise.

除非另有說明，我們將使用固定匯率或 CER 來評論我們的表現，並且不包括 COVID 解決方案。

Please turn to slide 3.

請翻到幻燈片 3。

Today's call will last approximately one hour and 15 minutes, with the presentation taking around 40 minutes and the remaining time for your questions.

今天的電話會議將持續約 1 小時 15 分鐘，其中演示大約需要 40 分鐘，剩餘時間用於回答您的問題。

Our speakers today are Emma Walmsley, Luke Miels, Julie Brown, and David Redfern, who will be covering HIV in the absence of Deborah Waterhouse, who's recovering from a successful medical procedure.

今天的演講者是 Emma Walmsley、Luke Miels、Julie Brown 和 David Redfern，由於 Deborah Waterhouse 正在接受成功的醫療手術後康復，因此他們將負責討論愛滋病毒問題。

And Tony Wood will be joining us for Q&A.

東尼伍德 (Tony Wood) 也將加入我們的問答環節。

Please ask only one to two questions so that everyone has a chance to participate.

請只提出一到兩個問題，以便每個人都有機會參與。

Turning to slide 4, I will now hand the call to Emma.

翻到投影片 4，我現在將發言權交給 Emma。

Thank you, Jeff, and welcome to everyone joining us today.

謝謝傑夫，歡迎大家今天加入我們。

Today, we are reporting our 2024 results and providing you with updates on our growth outlooks, investment plans, and focus on improving shareholder returns.

今天，我們報告 2024 年的業績，並向您提供有關我們的成長前景、投資計劃和提高股東回報的重點的最新資訊。

Please turn to the next slide.

請翻到下一張投影片。

2025 will mark three years since the demerger and the creation of GSK as a new dedicated biopharma company for patients and for shareholders.

2025 年將是葛蘭素史克公司拆分成立三週年，葛蘭素史克將成為一家專門為病患和股東服務的新型生物製藥公司。

The demerger enabled a fundamental restructure of GSK and its balance sheet, bringing new capacity to invest in growth and to deliver returns to shareholders.

此次拆分使葛蘭素史克及其資產負債表進行了根本性的重組，帶來了投資成長和為股東帶來回報的新能力。

Three years on, I'm pleased to say that we've seized this opportunity and made significant progress, building a strong track record of performance delivery.

三年過去了，我很高興地說，我們抓住了這個機遇，取得了重大進展，建立了良好的業績記錄。

Specialty Medicines and Vaccines now dominate our reshaped portfolio and pipeline.

特種藥物和疫苗目前佔據我們重塑後的產品組合和產品線的主導地位。

Our long-term outlooks have consistently improved alongside the quality of our innovation, and we've delivered sustained year-on-year sharper operational performance, underpinned by a stronger balance sheet.

隨著我們創新品質的提高，我們的長期前景也不斷改善，在更強勁的資產負債表的支持下，我們持續實現了逐年更強勁的營運表現。

This all points to GSK having the platform to deliver sustained profit growth and returns in the short, medium, and long term.

這一切都顯示葛蘭素史克擁有在短期、中期和長期實現持續利潤成長和回報的平台。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Our 2024 performance demonstrates the transformation of the business.

我們 2024 年的業績體現了業務的轉型。

Sales grew 8% to over GBP31 billion, with strong growth and increasing contribution from Specialty Medicines more than offsetting headwinds in Vaccines.

銷售額成長 8%，超過 310 億英鎊，強勁的成長和特種藥品貢獻的增加足以抵消疫苗方面的阻力。

Core operating profit was up 13% and core EPS was up 12%.

核心營業利潤成長13%，核心每股收益成長12%。

This level of performance delivered two upgrades to guidance in 2024 and supports the increased dividend of 61p per share announced today.

這一業績水準使得 2024 年的指引獲得兩次提升，並支持今天宣布的每股 61 便士的股息成長。

I'm also pleased to report that we maintained good progress in our six priority areas to build trust, not least retaining a leadership position in the Access to Medicine Index, where we've been placed first or second in the industry since its inception in 2008.

我還很高興地報告，我們在建立信任的六個重點領域取得了良好進展，尤其是在藥品可及性指數中保持了領導地位，自 2008 年成立以來，我們一直在行業中名列第一或第二。

And of course, during the year, we also resolved the Zantac litigation, prioritizing shareholder interests.

當然，今年我們也解決了 Zantac 訴訟，優先考慮股東利益。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Operational delivery in 2024 reflected strong growth and accelerating momentum of Specialty Medicines, with double-digit growth in all therapy areas, and sales of oncology nearly doubling to more than GBP1.4 billion for the year.

2024 年的營運交付反映了專科藥物的強勁增長和加速勢頭，所有治療領域均實現兩位數增長，腫瘤學銷售額幾乎翻了一番，全年超過 14 億英鎊。

Vaccine sales reflected the challenges we've seen from external pressures in the US and China for Arexvy and Shingrix.

疫苗銷售反映了我們看到的美國和中國對 Arexvy 和 Shingrix 的外部壓力所帶來的挑戰。

Going forward, we expect these to continue in 2025, but equally remain confident that Arexvy, Shingrix, and our Vaccines pipeline will contribute meaningfully in the medium and long term.

展望未來，我們預計這些趨勢將在 2025 年繼續，但同樣相信 Arexvy、Shingrix 和我們的疫苗產品線將在中長期做出有意義的貢獻。

Importantly, 2025 will see further additions to GSK's portfolio, with five new product approvals expected this year.

重要的是，2025 年葛蘭素史克的產品組合將進一步擴大，預計今年將有五種新產品獲得批准。

At the forefront are potential step changes in treatment, with Blenrep, our novel ADC treatment for multiple myeloma, and depemokimab, our new long-acting IL-5 medicine for the treatment of severe asthma.

最前線的是治療方面的潛在階躍變化，包括我們用於治療多發性骨髓瘤的新型 ADC 藥物 Blenrep 和用於治療嚴重氣喘的新型長效 IL-5 藥物 depemokimab。

Of these two, Blenrep will be the first to launch, with an expected FDA PDUFA in July.

這兩款藥物中，Blenrep 將率先上市，預計 FDA 將於 7 月頒發 PDUFA。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Last year, GSK had 13 positive Phase III readouts, a record achievement for our R&D organization.

去年，葛蘭素史克共有 13 份 III 期臨床試驗結果呈陽性，這對我們的研發機構來說是一個創紀錄的成就。

I'm also pleased with the confirmed development and strengthening of our mid- and early-stage pipeline, with positive clinical progress and the addition of several promising new assets in the areas of oncology and respiratory immunology and inflammation, or RI&I.

我也對我們中早期產品線的確認開發和加強感到高興，這些產品線取得了積極的臨床進展，並在腫瘤學和呼吸道免疫學和發炎（RI&I）領域增加了幾項有前景的新資產。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

So with all this progress to date, R&D is now heavily focused on the clinical development of 14 scale opportunities, with peak year sales potential above GBP2 billion and expected launches before 2031, and the majority in specialty medicines.

因此，憑藉迄今為止的所有進展，研發現在主要集中在 14 個規模機會的臨床開發上，這些機會的最高年銷售潛力超過 20 億英鎊，預計將在 2031 年之前推出，並且大多數是特種藥物。

In RI&I, we're prioritizing depemokimab, Nucala COPD, camlipixant, and long-acting IL-33, IL-5, and T-slip medicines.

在 RI&I 中，我們優先考慮 depemokimab、Nucala COPD、camlipixant 以及長效 IL-33、IL-5 和 T-slip 藥物。

The aim here being to leverage GSK's deep expertise in inflammatory mechanisms, to lead in COPD, and to target new options to treat fibrotic lung, liver, and kidney diseases.

其目的是利用 GS​​M 在發炎機制方面的深厚專業知識，在 COPD 領域發揮引領作用，並尋找治療纖維化肺、肝和腎疾病的新選擇。

In oncology, we're prioritizing resources to Blenrep and to the acceleration of our very promising ADCs, targeting B7-H3 and B7-H4 antigens, as well as continuing life cycle innovation for Jemperli.

在腫瘤學方面，我們優先將資源投入到 Blenrep 和加速我們非常有前景的 ADC，針對 B7-H3 和 B7-H4 抗原，並繼續為 Jemperli 進行生命週期創新。

In HIV, our plans for long-acting and ultra-long-acting treatment and PrEP options for four and six months are all progressing very well.

在愛滋病毒方面，我們的長效和超長效治療計畫以及四個月和六個月的 PrEP 方案都進展順利。

And in infectious disease, we're prioritizing development of bepirovirsen, our potential functional cure for hep B, and of course, our high-potential new mRNA and MAPS vaccines.

在傳染病方面，我們優先開發貝匹羅韋森，這是我們對乙肝的潛在功能性治療方法，當然還有我們具有高潛力的新型 mRNA 和 MAPS 疫苗。

Alongside these, and as Tony started to outline in December, we're also prosecuting the early-stage pipeline, with a further 40 assets or so in Phase I and II.

除此之外，正如 Tony 在 12 月開始概述的那樣，我們還在推進早期階段的研發管線，第一階段和第二階段還有大約 40 項資產。

Lastly, we continue to add new opportunities through targeted business development, the recent agreement to acquire IDRX being a great example of what we want to do here.

最後，我們繼續透過有針對性的業務開發來增加新的機會，最近達成的收購 IDRX 的協議就是我們想要在這裡做的事情的一個很好的例子。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Looking at GSK's launch portfolio over the next five years, we expect it to offer scale opportunity for growth, together with an attractive risk profile.

展望葛蘭素史克未來五年的上市產品組合，我們預期它將提供規模成長機會，同時具有吸引人的風險狀況。

By 2031, we're increasing our outlook again and now expect risk-adjusted sales to be more than GBP40 billion.

到 2031 年，我們再次上調了預期，目前預計風險調整後的銷售額將超過 400 億英鎊。

This increase reflects the inclusion of Blenrep, our significant Phase III progress since last year, and multiple launch opportunities in the '26 to '31 period.

這一增長反映了 Blenrep 的納入、我們自去年以來在第三階段取得的重大進展以及 2026 年至 2031 年期間的多次發射機會。

With almost 90% of our 2031 sales ambition coming from products already approved or planned for launch in the next three years, we're confident that our portfolio will deliver against this guidance.

我們 2031 年銷售目標的近 90% 來自已獲批准或計劃在未來三年內推出的產品，我們相信我們的產品組合將實現這一目標。

In terms of contribution, we now expect Specialty Medicines to be more than 50% of sales by 2031, with this area being the key growth driver for GSK over the next few years, too, reflecting the high number of opportunities we have in the maturing late-stage pipeline for specialty products, particularly in RI&I and oncology.

在貢獻方面，我們現在預計到 2031 年特種藥物將佔銷售額的 50% 以上，這一領域也將成為葛蘭素史克未來幾年的主要增長動力，這反映了我們在日趨成熟的特種產品後期管線中擁有的大量機會，特別是在 RI&I 和腫瘤學領域。

For Vaccines, while we've adjusted expectations to accommodate for new sales growth trajectories of Arexvy and Shingrix over this period, as you can see here, we continue to expect this part of GSK's business to remain a key source of future growth.

對於疫苗，雖然我們已經調整了預期以適應 Arexvy 和 Shingrix 在此期間的新銷售成長軌跡，但正如您在此處看到的，我們仍然預計 GSK 的這一部分業務仍將是未來成長的主要來源。

General Medicines will also remain an important and relatively stable contributor to sales over the period.

在此期間，普通藥品仍將是銷售的重要且相對穩定的貢獻者。

As before, we have a further upside from our early-stage pipeline, including notably Q6 month HIV and prospective BD, where we will continue to pursue smart opportunities at the same kind of scale and pace seen in recent years.

與以前一樣，我們的早期產品線還有進一步的上升空間，其中值得注意的是 Q6 個月 HIV 和潛在 BD，我們將繼續以近年來相同的規模和速度尋求智慧機會。

And as you can see from the two bars here, there is significant potential for upside with successful clinical outcomes.

從這裡的兩個長條圖可以看出，成功的臨床結果具有巨大的上升潛力。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Overall then, we continue to set out positive outlooks for growth in the short, medium, and long term, and we are all strongly committed to maintaining our track record of delivering this together.

總體而言，我們繼續對短期、中期和長期的成長抱持著積極的展望，並且我們都堅定地致力於保持共同實現這一目標的業績。

We expect 2025 will be another year of profitable growth led by Specialty Medicines.

我們預計 2025 年將是另一個以特種藥物為主導的獲利成長年。

And with our recent progress, we're now even more confident in our ability to deliver not only our '26 but also our new 2031 outlooks, all of this while retaining the flexibility we need to invest competitively in growth and to deliver improving returns to shareholders.

隨著我們最近的進展，我們現在更加有信心，我們不僅能夠實現我們的26年願景，而且能夠實現我們新的2031年願景，同時保留我們所需的靈活性，以便在增長方面進行有競爭力的投資，並為股東帶來更好的回報。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

We remain extremely focused on disciplined allocation of capital.

我們仍然高度重視嚴格的資本配置。

Our first priority for capital remains to invest in growth and in R&D.

我們的資本首要任務仍是投資成長和研發。

With the pipeline opportunities we now have, we are deliberately prioritizing investment to accelerate development of key assets in RI&I and oncology, alongside long-acting HIV medicines and existing core Vaccines opportunities.

憑藉我們目前擁有的管道機會，我們正在有意優先投資，以加速開發 RI&I 和腫瘤學領域的關鍵資產，以及長效 HIV 藥物和現有的核心疫苗機會。

In addition to growth, we also remain focused on delivering improving returns for shareholders.

除了成長之外，我們也致力於為股東帶來更高的回報。

Our primary mechanism for this remains via delivery of a progressive dividend.

我們實現這一目標的主要機制仍然是透過發放累進紅利。

For 2024, we've declared 61p, and we expect to pay 64p in 2025.

對於 2024 年，我們已宣布 61 便士，預計 2025 年將支付 64 便士。

And as we've previously said, we also look to deliver returns using other mechanisms when circumstances and opportunities allow.

正如我們之前所說，當情況和機會允許時，我們也希望使用其他機制來提供回報。

And today, we are announcing our intention to buy back up to GBP2 billion of shares over the next 18 months.

今天，我們宣布計劃在未來 18 個月內回購最多 20 億英鎊的股票。

We believe this offers a very attractive return for shareholders at current share price levels.

我們相信，以目前的股價水平，這將為股東帶來非常有吸引力的回報。

Very importantly, and to reconfirm, we will maintain planned increased levels of investment in R&D, new launches, and targeted business development alongside these share buybacks.

非常重要的是，需要再次確認的是，在回購股票的同時，我們也將按計畫繼續增加對研發、新產品發布和有針對性的業務發展的投資。

So let me now hand over to Luke to start to take you through more detail on our 2024 performance and the prospects we see for some of our near-term growth drivers.

現在，讓我將時間交給盧克，讓他開始向您詳細介紹我們 2024 年的業績以及我們對一些近期成長動力的前景。

Thanks, Emma.

謝謝，艾瑪。

Please turn to the next slide.

請翻到下一張投影片。

As Emma highlighted, overall sales for the year were up 8%, with strong growth from Specialty and General Medicines more than offsetting short-term headwinds primarily in the US to our Vaccines business.

正如艾瑪所強調的，今年的整體銷售額增長了 8%，其中特種藥品和普通藥品的強勁增長足以抵消我們疫苗業務（主要是在美國）短期內遭遇的阻力。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Specialty Medicines continues to show excellent momentum and pipeline progress.

特種藥物持續展現出良好的勢頭和研發進展。

And as Emma said, it's now expected to be over half our business by 2031.

正如艾瑪所說，預計到 2031 年，這一比例將超過我們業務的一半。

In 2024, Specialty grew 19%, with strong performances across all therapy areas.

2024 年，專業治療成長 19%，所有治療領域均表現強勁。

Respiratory immunology products were up 13% in the year.

呼吸免疫學產品全年成長13%。

Nucala, our anti-IL-5 biologic treatment, grew 12%, driven by strong performances in Europe and international.

我們的抗 IL-5 生物療法 Nucala 成長了 12%，這得益於歐洲和國際市場的強勁表現。

Benlysta, our treatment for lupus, was up 14% in the year, with strong demand across all regions.

我們的狼瘡治療藥物 Benlysta 的銷售額在去年增長了 14%，各個地區的需求都很強勁。

In oncology, sales almost doubled in the year.

在腫瘤學領域，銷售額今年幾乎翻了一番。

Zejula grew 17%, with strong growth across all regions, driven by sustained increases in patient demand.

Zejula 成長了 17%，在患者需求持續成長的推動下，所有地區均實現強勁成長。

Jemperli sales more than tripled in 2024, benefiting from increased patient uptake in the US following FDA all-comers approval for primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer, and we received EMA all-comers approval in January this year.

2024 年，Jemperli 的銷售額增長了兩倍多，這得益於美國 FDA 批准其用於治療原發性晚期或複發性子宮內膜癌後美國患者服用量的增加，並且我們在今年 1 月獲得了 EMA 的批准。

Ojjaara sales increased more than 10 times in the year, largely driven by continued strong uptake in the US.

Ojjaara 的銷量在去年增長了 10 倍多，這主要得益於美國市場持續強勁的成長勢頭。

Contributions from Europe and international are also increasing following launches in the UK, Germany and Japan, and we expect further launches in 2025.

繼英國、德國和日本推出新產品之後，來自歐洲和國際的貢獻也在增加，我們預計 2025 年還會有更多新產品推出。

David will cover HIV shortly.

David 很快就會報導有關愛滋病毒的問題。

We expect the excellent momentum in our Specialty Medicines portfolio to continue in 2025, with sales growth of low double-digit percent, while absorbing the IRA impact.

我們預計，我們的特種藥品組合的良好勢頭將在 2025 年繼續保持，銷售額增長率將達到低兩位數，同時吸收 IRA 的影響。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Looking at what's next in Specialty, in RI&I, we are targeting a major new indication for Nucala to treat COPD, following positive headline results from our Phase III MATINEE trial.

展望專業領域，在 RI&I 方面，我們瞄準了 Nucala 的一個主要新適應症，即治療 COPD，此前我們的 III 期 MATINEE 試驗取得了積極的總體結果。

COPD affects more than 300 million people globally and is the third leading cause of death worldwide, excluding COVID.

慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 影響全球超過 3 億人，是 COVID 之外的全球第三大死因。

An FDA decision is expected ahead of the May 7 PDUFA date, and launch preparations are fully underway.

FDA 預計將在 5 月 7 日 PDUFA 日期之前做出決定，上市準備工作正在全面進行中。

We plan to publish the full MATINEE results at this year's ATS meeting.

我們計劃在今年的 ATS 會議上發布完整的 MATINEE 結果。

Depemokimab, our new long-acting anti-IL-5 medicine, has now been filed in all major markets for dual approval in severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps.

我們的新型長效抗 IL-5 藥物 Depemokimab 目前已在所有主要市場提交申請，用於治療嚴重氣喘和伴隨鼻息肉的慢性鼻竇炎。

Depemokimab has the potential to be the first approved ultra-long-acting biologic with six-month dosing, offering physicians and patients the reassurance of prolonged efficacy through sustained suppression of inflammation, and could improve compliance and adherence for patients with severe asthma.

Depemokimab 有可能成為首個獲批的六個月給藥週期的超長效生物製劑，透過持續抑制炎症，為醫生和患者提供長期療效的保證，並可以提高重度氣喘患者的依從性和依從性。

We expect more Phase III readouts over the next 18 months for other eosinophil-driven indications and also plan to start a Phase III trial in COPD this year.

我們預計在未來 18 個月內會有更多針對其他嗜酸性粒細胞驅動適應症的 III 期試驗結果，並且還計劃今年啟動針對 COPD 的 III 期試驗。

And we have camlipixant, a highly selective P2X3 antagonist, with the potential to be a best-in-class medicine for treatment of refractory chronic cough, a disease with significant unmet need.

我們還有 camlipixant，一種高度選擇性的 P2X3 拮抗劑，有可能成為治療難治性慢性咳嗽（一種尚未滿足的巨大需求的疾病）的最佳藥物。

First data from the Phase III CALM development program are expected this year, with more early next year.

預計第三階段 CALM 開發計畫的首批數據將於今年公佈，更多數據將於明年年初公佈。

In oncology, we're working to realize the full potential of our existing medicines, as well as to expand our portfolio in areas of high unmet need.

在腫瘤學領域，我們正在努力充分發揮現有藥物的潛力，並在尚未滿足的巨大需求領域擴大我們的產品組合。

We have significant potential assets to drive growth for GSK, and I am very optimistic about what we as GSK can deliver here.

我們擁有推動葛蘭素史克公司成長的巨大潛在資產，我對葛蘭素史克公司所能達成的成就感到非常樂觀。

We're building a portfolio of novel pipeline ADCs with the ability to target tumor cells while sparing healthy ones.

我們正在建立一系列新型 ADC 產品線，這些產品線能夠靶向腫瘤細胞，同時保護健康細胞。

GSK227 targets B7-H3, an antigen which is overexpressed in a wide range of solid tumors.

GSK227 的標靶是 B7-H3，這是一種在多種實體腫瘤中過度表現的抗原。

Early data show promising clinical activity, and we expect to share updated small cell lung, osteosarcoma, and additional data from our clinical development programs at the ASCO and ESMO conferences this year.

早期數據顯示臨床活動前景看好，我們期望在今年的 ASCO 和 ESMO 會議上分享更新的小細胞肺、骨肉瘤以及更多來自我們臨床開發計畫的數據。

Pivotal studies for 227 are expected to start before the end of the year.

227 的關鍵研究預計將在今年年底前開始。

GSK584 targets B7-H4, which is also overexpressed across a number of solid tumors, and our initial focus here is for the treatment of ovarian and endometrial cancers.

GSK584 的標靶是 B7-H4，這種基因在許多實體腫瘤中也過度表達，我們最初的重點是治療卵巢癌和子宮內膜癌。

Again, we expect to share more data on 584 at the conferences of this year.

再次，我們希望在今年的會議上分享更多關於 584 的數據。

As you may have seen, we started 2025 with the announcement to acquire IDRX.

正如您可能已經看到的，我們在 2025 年開始宣布收購 IDRX。

This gives us access to IDRX-42, a very promising and highly selective KIT tyrosine kinase inhibitor designed to treat gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

這使我們能夠獲得IDRX-42，一種非常有前景且高選擇性的KIT酪胺酸激酶抑制劑，旨在治療胃腸道間質瘤。

This adds to our GI cancer portfolio, and we plan to accelerate development of this exciting asset.

這擴大了我們的胃腸道癌症產品組合，我們計劃加快開發這項令人興奮的資產。

Lastly, as a reminder, we also expect initial results from AZUR-1 and AZUR-2 trials exploring Jemperli in rectal and colon cancer in 2026 and 2027, respectively, and the Phase III JADE study to read out in 2028.

最後，提醒一下，我們也預期 AZUR-1 和 AZUR-2 試驗的初步結果將分別於 2026 年和 2027 年公佈，以探索 Jemperli 在直腸癌和結腸癌中的應用，第三階段 JADE 研究將於 2028 年公佈。

All this highlights the very strong progress GSK is making in oncology. 2025 will be another key year with the launch of Blenrep.

所有這些都凸顯了葛蘭素史克在腫瘤學領域的強勁進展。隨著 Blenrep 的推出，2025 年將是另一個關鍵的一年。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Blenrep is at the forefront of our ADC portfolio.

Blenrep 是我們 ADC 產品組合中的佼佼者。

In December, we presented overall survival data from the DREAMM-7 second-line multiple myeloma study at ASH, and the data demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful 42% reduction in the risk of death when comparing Blenrep to the daratumumab-based standard of care.

12 月，我們在 ASH 上公佈了 DREAMM-7 二線多發性骨髓瘤研究的總體生存數據，數據顯示，與基於 daratumumab 的標準治療相比，Blenrep 可使死亡風險降低 42%，具有統計學和臨床意義。

Median overall survival has not yet been reached in DREAMM-7, but the projected difference is 33 months.

DREAMM-7 尚未達到中位整體存活期，但預計差異為 33 個月。

For context, that's almost an additional three years of survival versus the current standard of care.

就背景而言，與目前的治療標準相比，這幾乎意味著額外三年的生存期。

If approved, unlike a number of alternative second-line treatments, Blenrep would be an off-the-shelf treatment option delivered by a 30-minute infusion in a community setting with no requirements for pre-infusion protocols, hospital admission, or post-infusion monitoring.

如果獲得批准，與許多其他二線治療方案不同，Blenrep 將成為一種現成的治療選擇，透過社區環境中 30 分鐘的輸液提供，無需輸液前方案、住院或輸液後監測。

This could be important for the 70% of patients treated in the community.

對於在社區接受治療的 70% 患者來說，這可能很重要。

In the newly diagnosed or first-line setting, we're encouraged by the second-line trial readouts, but also by the BelaRd trial, which demonstrated 100% response rates.

在新診斷或第一線治療中，二線試驗的結果令我們感到鼓舞，而且 BelaRd 試驗也顯示，其反應率達到 100%。

Our pivotal trial for Blenrep in the first line, DREAMM-10, started recruitment at the end of 2024, and we anticipate headline results towards the end of 2027.

我們對 Blenrep 進行的第一線關鍵試驗 DREAMM-10 於 2024 年底開始招募，我們預計主要結果將於 2027 年底公佈。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

I remain very ambitious for Blenrep, which I believe will become an important new growth driver for GSK.

我對 Blenrep 仍然抱有很高的期望，我相信它將成為 GSK 重要的新成長動力。

We have gained extensive experience of treating patients with Blenrep and have a better understanding of how to mitigate eye-related side effects.

我們在使用 Blenrep 治療患者方面獲得了豐富的經驗，並且對如何減輕與眼睛相關的副作用有了更好的了解。

Around a third of patients in Blenrep studies have reported blurred vision as an adverse event, but for the vast majority of these patients, this was manageable, transient, and reversible, and data suggests did not impact patients' quality of life.

Blenrep 研究中約有三分之一的患者報告視力模糊是一種不良事件，但對於絕大多數患者來說，這種情況是可控制的、暫時的和可逆的，數據顯示不會影響患者的生活品質。

Eye-related side effects in DREAMM-7 were generally managed by dose modification, for example, by extending the interval between doses.

DREAMM-7 中與眼睛相關的副作用通常透過調整劑量來控制，例如延長劑量間隔。

Data recently presented at ASH showed that when dosing intervals were extended from 8 to 12 weeks, the incident of ocular events declined, and critically, the efficacy of Blenrep was maintained.

最近在 ASH 上公佈的數據表明，當給藥間隔從 8 週延長到 12 週時，眼部事件的發生率下降，而且至關重要的是，Blenrep 的療效得以維持。

We've completed a number of regulatory filings and have an FDA PDUFA date of July 23.

我們已經完成了一系列監管備案，FDA PDUFA 的生效日期為 7 月 23 日。

As we prepare for Blenrep's launch, market research tells us intent to prescribe has significantly improved, with the overall survival data a strong motivator.

當我們準備推出 Blenrep 時，市場研究告訴我們，處方意願已顯著改善，整體生存數據是一個強大的推動力。

However, ACPs are mindful of eye-related side effects, and therefore, educating them in the appropriate dosing will be key.

然而，ACP 非常清楚與眼睛相關的副作用，因此，教育他們適當的劑量是關鍵。

As a result, in the initial phase, we expect a staged ramp-up as we build physician experience for the medium to longer term.

因此，在初始階段，我們預計會分階段增加，以累積中長期的醫生經驗。

I'll now hand over to David to talk through HIV before I cover Vaccines and General Medicines.

現在我將把話題交給 David，讓他討論愛滋病毒，然後再討論疫苗和普通藥物。

Thank you, Luke.

謝謝你，盧克。

HIV sales continued to deliver strong growth, up 13% for the full year, with Q4 delivering our ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

HIV 銷售額持續強勁成長，全年成長 13%，其中第四季連續第九個季度實現兩位數成長。

Growth in 2024 was driven by strong patient demand for our oral two-drug regimen, Dovato, up 27%, and long-acting injectables Cabenuva and Apretude, which reached GBP1.3 billion of sales and contributed more than 50% of total growth.

2024 年的成長主要得益於患者對我們的口服雙藥方案 Dovato 的強勁需求（成長 27%）以及長效注射劑 Cabenuva 和 Apretude，這兩項藥物的銷售額達到 13 億英鎊，貢獻了超過 50% 的總成長。

This resulted in a 2-percentage-point increase in global market share compared to the prior period.

這使得全球市佔率較上一時期增加了2個百分點。

Cabenuva, the first and only approved complete long-acting injectable regimen for the treatment of HIV, grew 47% to over GBP1 billion of sales in 2024.

Cabenuva 是首個也是唯一獲批的用於治療愛滋病的完整長效注射藥物，2024 年其銷售額增長了 47%，達到 10 億英鎊以上。

Growth was driven by strong patient demand across the US and Europe, with 70,000 people living with HIV now benefiting from this transformative medicine globally.

成長的動力來自於美國和歐洲強勁的患者需求，目前全球有 7 萬名愛滋病毒感染者受益於這種變革性藥物。

In January, we announced European Commission approval for use in adolescents.

今年一月，我們宣布歐盟委員會批准該藥物用於青少年。

This marks an important step in bringing this medicine to younger people in line with our commitment to leave no person living with HIV behind.

這標誌著我們朝著讓更多年輕人獲得這種藥物的目標邁出了重要一步，符合我們履行不讓任何愛滋病毒感染者落後的承諾。

Apretude, the first and only approved long-acting option for HIV prevention, delivered sales of nearly GBP300 million in 2024, continuing its strong growth trajectory at 93%.

Apretude 是首個也是唯一獲準的長效愛滋病防治藥物，2024 年的銷售額接近 3 億英鎊，持續維持 93% 的強勁成長軌跡。

With 99% effectiveness, we are confident in its strong efficacy, safety, and overall tolerability.

由於有效率達到 99%，我們對其強大的功效、安全性和整體耐受性充滿信心。

In 2024, of the 13% growth, 10% was volume, with the remainder favorable in-year pricing dynamics.

到 2024 年，13% 的成長中，10% 是銷量，其餘的是年內有利的定價動態。

In 2025, we anticipate sales growing by a mid-single-digit percentage, supported by ongoing growth in volume, partly offset by pricing headwinds with the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act, which we expect to be a GBP150 million to GBP200 million impact.

到 2025 年，我們預計銷售額將實現中等個位數百分比增長，這得益於銷量的持續增長，但通膨抑制法案出台帶來的價格阻力將部分抵消這一增長，我們預計該法案的影響將達到 1.5 億至 2 億英鎊。

The potential for the long-acting market remains significant, with the market today for treatment and PrEP together worth more than GBP22 billion, with treatment accounting for around 90% of this, and we believe treatment will continue to be the much larger market going forward.

長效市場潛力仍然巨大，目前治療和 PrEP 的市場總價值超過 220 億英鎊，其中治療約佔 90%，我們相信治療仍將是未來更大的市場。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Our pipeline is founded on integrase inhibitors, or INSTIs, the gold standard of HIV treatment and prevention, due to their potency, long-term tolerability, and high barrier to resistance.

我們的產品線以整合酶抑制劑（INSTI）為基礎，由於其效力強、長期耐受性好、抗藥性強，因此是愛滋病毒治療和預防的黃金標準。

We have a clear roadmap to deliver more long-acting innovation, with three new INSTIs in development and five planned launches by the end of the decade.

我們擁有明確的路線圖，以實現更多長效創新，其中三種新的 INSTI 正在開發中，並計劃在 2020 年前推出五種。

In December, our registrational study for cabotegravir four-monthly long-acting injectable PrEP began, and we are on track to start our registrational study for every four-month long-acting injectable treatment this year.

12 月，我們開始了針對卡博特韋四個月長效注射 PrEP 的註冊研究，我們計劃今年開始針對每種四個月長效注射治療進行註冊研究。

Early data on assets with the potential for six-monthly dosing will be available in 2025, including selected presentations at the CROI Congress in San Francisco in March.

有關可能進行每六個月劑量給藥的資產的早期數據將於 2025 年公佈，其中包括 3 月在舊金山舉行的 CROI 大會上的精選報告。

We are on track to confirm in 2026 the assets that will deliver six-monthly dosing.

我們預計在 2026 年確認每六個月提供一次劑量的資產。

For PrEP, this will be one of three long-acting INSTIs, and for treatment, one of those INSTIs in combination with our BNAV-N6LS or our capsid inhibitor.

對於 PrEP，這將是三種長效 INSTI 之一，對於治療，將是其中一種 INSTI 與我們的 BNAV-N6LS 或我們的衣殼抑制劑結合使用。

As pioneers in long-acting injectables, we are confident to secure and deliver future competitive performance.

作為長效注射劑的先驅，我們有信心確保並實現未來的競爭性能。

With that, I will hand back to Luke.

說完這些，我會把話交還給盧克。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

Turning to Vaccines, total sales were GBP9 billion, down 3% in the year, largely due to lower sales of Arexvy in the US.

談到疫苗，總銷售額為 90 億英鎊，年減 3%，主要原因是 Arexvy 在美國銷售下降。

Overall, Arexvy continues to be the market leader in the US, with around 10 million adults now protected.

總體而言，Arexvy 繼續成為美國市場的領導者，目前約有 1000 萬成年人受到保護。

However, demand for the vaccine was lower in 2024, following new ACIP recommendations, a late RSV season, and an unfavorable comparison to launch stocking in 2023.

然而，由於 ACIP 的新建議、RSV 季節的推遲以及與 2023 年開始的庫存相比不利，2024 年對疫苗的需求有所下降。

Going forward, we continue to assume no revaccination or expansion of age cohorts in 2025, but we do expect both in time, given the protection RSV can offer against RSV.

展望未來，我們仍然假設 2025 年不會再進行重新接種疫苗或擴大年齡組，但考慮到 RSV 可以提供對 RSV 的保護，我們確實預計這兩者都會及時實現。

Outside of the US, RSV is now launched in 36 markets, and we are seeing good momentum in uptake, with national recommendations in 17 markets and national reimbursement programs in six.

在美國以外，RSV 現已在 36 個市場推出，我們看到了良好的發展勢頭，其中 17 個市場獲得了國家推薦，6 個市場納入了國家報銷計劃。

We expect more this year.

我們期望今年會有更多。

Moving to Shingrix.

轉向 Shingrix。

Sales grew 1% in the year, with growth in Europe and international offsetting lower sales in the US, whereas anticipated, the pace of penetration is slowing.

今年銷售額成長了 1%，歐洲和國際市場的銷售成長抵消了美國市場銷售額的下降，但預計滲透速度正在放緩。

The US immunization rate at the end of the third quarter was 40%, up 5 percentage points, in line with our expectations for around 3 to 5 percentage points per year.

美國第三季末的免疫接種率為40%，上升了5個百分點，符合我們預期的每年3至5個百分點左右的成長率。

Ex-US, growth was driven by higher uptake across European countries and a national immunization program in Australia.

在美國以外，成長主要是由於歐洲國家的接種率提高以及澳洲的國家免疫計劃。

Shingrix is now launched in 52 countries, and the average immunization rate across the top 10 markets outside the US is now around 7%.

Shingrix 目前已在 52 個國家上市，美國以外前十大市場的平均免疫率約為 7%。

In meningitis, our portfolio achieved another year of double-digit growth, with sales up 18%.

在腦膜炎領域，我們的產品組合再次實現了兩位數的成長，銷售額成長了 18%。

Bexsero reached blockbuster status, with sales up 23%, aided by CDC purchasing and positive recommendation in Germany.

Bexsero 成為轟動一時的藥物，得益於 CDC 採購和德國的積極推薦，銷售額增長了 23%。

Menveo grew 5%, impacted by comparison to stockpile replenishments in 2023.

受 2023 年庫存補充的影響，Menveo 成長了 5%。

And in February, we anticipate US FDA approval of our new pentavalent MenABCWY vaccine, combining the antigenic components of Bexsero and Menveo.

我們預計美國 FDA 將於 2 月批准我們的新型五價 MenABCWY 疫苗，該疫苗結合了 Bexsero 和 Menveo 的抗原成分。

In time, we expect this to simplify immunization schedules, increasing coverage and protection against a serious life-threatening illness.

隨著時間的推移，我們希望這將簡化免疫接種時間表，提高覆蓋率並提高對嚴重危及生命的疾病的保護率。

Medium and long term, we expect Vaccines to remain a key source of future growth.

從中長期來看，我們預計疫苗仍將是未來成長的主要來源。

In the short term, given the challenging China macro environment and the potential for changes to US vaccination policies and uptake in the next 12 to 18 months, we're expecting Vaccines sales to decrease low single-digit percent in 2025.

短期內，鑑於中國宏觀環境的挑戰以及未來 12 至 18 個月美國疫苗接種政策和接種率可能發生變化，我們預計 2025 年疫苗銷售額將下降個位數的低百分比。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

General Medicines sales grew 6% in the year, and this was largely driven by Trelegy, up 27%, with strong demand across all regions, strengthening its position as a top-selling brand in asthma and COPD.

通用藥物銷售額全年增長 6%，這主要得益於 Trelegy 的推動，其銷售額增長了 27%，所有地區的需求都強勁，鞏固了其作為哮喘和 COPD 領域最暢銷品牌的地位。

In 2024, increased use of authorized generic versions of Advair and Flovent fully offset the headwind from the removal of the AMCAP on Medicaid drug prices.

2024 年，Advair 和 Flovent 授權仿製藥的使用增加完全抵消了取消醫療補助藥品價格 AMCAP 的不利影響。

This year, we are excited to launch gepotidacin, the first completely new antibiotic to treat uncomplicated urinary tract infections in more than 20 years.

今年，我們很高興推出了吉泊汀，這是 20 多年來第一個用於治療無併發症泌尿道感染的全新抗生素。

And we expect to see demand increase from 2026, once payers have completed their review process and put gepotidacin on formally.

一旦付款人完成審查流程並正式使用吉泊汀，我們預計從 2026 年開始需求就會增加。

Overall, looking across the General Medicines portfolio, while we expect volume growth across key brands to continue, we expect that to be broadly offset by pricing and genericization pressures, and so anticipate sales to be broadly flat in 2025.

總體而言，縱觀通用藥物組合，雖然我們預計主要品牌的銷售將繼續增長，但我們預計這一增長將被定價和仿製藥壓力所抵消，因此預計 2025 年的銷售額將基本持平。

I'll now hand over to Julie.

現在我將麥克風交給茱莉。

Thank you, Luke, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，盧克，大家早安。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Building on the comments made by Luke and David, this slide shows the significant growth contribution from Specialty Medicines, having delivered more than 80% of the growth this year by building scale and momentum in our respiratory immunology and oncology business, as well as ongoing growth in our HIV portfolio.

基於 Luke 和 David 的評論，這張幻燈片展示了特種藥物業務對成長的顯著貢獻，今年，透過擴大呼吸免疫學和腫瘤學業務的規模和發展勢頭，以及愛滋病毒產品組合的持續成長，特種藥物業務實現了 80% 以上的成長。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Moving to the income statement for the full year, with growth rates stated at CER and ex-COVID.

轉到全年損益表，成長率以 CER 和不含 COVID 的數據表示。

Sales increased 8% and core operating profit 13%, despite a 6% headwind from the loss of Gardasil royalties.

儘管因 Gardasil 專利費損失而遭受 6% 的不利影響，銷售額仍增長了 8%，核心營業利潤增長了 13%。

Within this, gross margin grew 80 basis points, benefiting from the positive mix from Specialty Medicines and the supply chain efficiencies, despite incorporating a GBP150 million charge to drive future supply chain productivity.

其中，儘管增加了1.5億英鎊的費用來推動未來供應鏈生產力，但毛利率仍增加了80個基點，受益於特種藥物的積極組合和供應鏈效率。

SG&A increased 2% year on year, benefiting from our returns-focused, disciplined approach to investments, supporting global market expansion for key assets, including Jermperli, Nucala, long-acting HIV, Arexvy, and Shingrix, as well as a one-off credit from the Zejula royalty dispute in quarter one.

銷售、一般及行政開支年增 2%，這得益於我們注重回報、嚴謹的投資方式，支持了主要資產的全球市場擴張，包括 Jermperli、Nucala、長效 HIV、Arexvy 和 Shingrix，以及第一季 Zejula 特許權使用費糾紛帶來的一次性抵免。

R&D grew 7%, broadly in line with sales, as we invested in Phase III trials, particularly in our RI&I and oncology.

研發費用成長了 7%，與銷售額基本一致，因為我們對第三階段試驗進行了投資，特別是在 RI&I 和腫瘤學方面。

Core EPS grew 12%, slightly below operating profit, as anticipated, due to an expected increase in the core tax rate.

由於核心稅率預計增加，核心每股收益成長 12%，略低於營業利潤，符合預期。

And turning to the total results, operating profit decreased materially year on year to GBP4 billion.

從整體業績來看，營業利潤年減至 40 億英鎊。

The reduction reflected a GBP1.8 billion charge relating to the resolution of the Zantac litigation and a higher CCL charge, driven by the improved long-term outlook for our HIV business.

這一減少反映了與解決 Zantac 訴訟相關的 18 億英鎊費用和更高的 CCL 費用，這得益於我們 HIV 業務的長期前景改善。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Core operating margin improved to 29.2%, up 130 basis points year on year, at CER and ex-COVID, notwithstanding the absorption of 140 basis points due to the loss of Gardasil royalties.

以固定匯率和不含新冠疫情計算，核心營業利潤率提升至 29.2%，年增 130 個基點，儘管因失去 Gardasil 特許權使用費而吸收了 140 個基點。

This marked improvement demonstrates productivity, efficiency, and optimized resource allocation to the key commercial and R&D assets in the business.

這一顯著的進步表明，該公司在業務中的關鍵商業和研發資產的生產力、效率和資源配置均得到了最佳化。

The gross margin benefited from the outperformance of Specialty Medicines, positive channel mix, and supply chain productivity.

毛利率受益於特種藥物的優異表現、積極的通路組合和供應鏈生產力。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Turning to cash, cash generated from operations was GBP7.9 billion, impacted by settlement payments relating to the resolution of Zantac.

談到現金，經營活動產生的現金為 79 億英鎊，受到與 Zantac 解決相關的和解付款的影響。

Excluding this impact, we continued our track record of improving cash every year, with CGFO up GBP0.4 billion, totalling GBP8.5 billion.

除去這一影響，我們繼續保持每年現金增加的記錄，CGFO 增加了 4 億英鎊，總計 85 億英鎊。

This improvement primarily reflected the increase in core operating profit, together with favorable working capital, largely due to lower receivables and lower pension contributions.

這項改善主要反映了核心營業利潤的增加，以及有利的營運資本，這主要歸功於應收帳款的減少和退休金繳款的減少。

These benefits were partly offset by lower other payables due to the reduced rebates and returns from AMCAP.

由於 AMCAP 的回扣和回報減少，這些收益被其他應付款的減少部分抵消。

Free cash flow improved to GBP3.5 billion, excluding the Zantac payments, notwithstanding increased investment of GBP0.4 billion in BD intangibles.

儘管對 BD 無形資產的投資增加了 4 億英鎊，但不包括 Zantac 付款，自由現金流仍改善至 35 億英鎊。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

This slide demonstrates how we have deployed our cash in line with the capital allocation framework.

這張投影片展示了我們如何根據資本配置框架部署現金。

Free cash generation, pre-capital expenditure and excluding Zantac was strong at over GBP6 billion.

自由現金產生、資本前支出（不包括 Zantac）強勁，超過 60 億英鎊。

Our first priority is to invest for growth, and in 2024, we deployed GBP3.6 billion on CapEx and BD.

我們的首要任務是投資成長，2024 年，我們在資本支出和 BD 上部署了 36 億英鎊。

Our second priority is returns to shareholders, and today, we have declared a dividend of 61p, an increase of 5% year on year and ahead of guidance, reflecting the strong outperformance of our 2024 result compared with our original position.

我們的第二要務是回報股東，今天，我們宣布派發 61 便士的股息，同比增長 5%，且高於預期，反映出我們 2024 年的業績較最初的預期強勁增長。

In 2025, we anticipate paying a dividend of 64p, a further 5% increase year on year.

2025 年，我們預計股息為 64 便士，年增 5%。

And finally, we had two one-off factors: the monetization of Haleon, which generated GBP2.3 billion, and the resolution of the Zantac litigation.

最後，我們有兩個一次性因素：Haleon 的貨幣化，產生了 23 億英鎊的收入，以及 Zantac 訴訟的解決。

At December 2024, net debt reduced to GBP13 billion, driven by strong free cash generation and the Haleon proceeds.

截至 2024 年 12 月，在強勁的自由現金產生和 Haleon 收益的推動下，淨債務減少至 130 億英鎊。

As we've previously said, we will look to deliver incremental returns when business needs have been fulfilled and the balance sheet allows.

正如我們之前所說，當業務需求得到滿足且資產負債表允許時，我們將尋求提供增量回報。

And given the significant transformation since the demerger, we now have a strong balance sheet, which gives us a high level of flexibility for the acceleration of organic investments and further business development, whilst also enabling a step-up in shareholder returns.

鑑於公司自拆分以來的重大轉型，我們現在擁有強勁的資產負債表，這為我們加速有機投資和進一步業務發展提供了高度的靈活性，同時也能夠提高股東回報。

As Emma said, we will augment our dividend with the GBP2 billion share buyback program to be completed over the next 18 months.

正如艾瑪所說，我們將透過未來 18 個月內完成的 20 億英鎊股票回購計畫來增加股利。

So to summarize, our focus is on investing for growth, and there is no change to our capital allocation priorities, and we remain fully committed to maintaining a balance sheet with a strong investment grade credit rating.

總而言之，我們的重點是投資成長，我們的資本配置重點沒有改變，我們仍然致力於維持具有強勁投資等級信用評級的資產負債表。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Now, turning to guidance at constant rates, I'll cover 2025 and phasing and then move to the outlook for '21 to '26.

現在，談到以固定利率進行的指導，我將介紹 2025 年及其分階段情況，然後介紹 2021 年至 2026 年的展望。

So first, for 2025, we expect another year of good profitable growth for GSK.

首先，我們預計 2025 年葛蘭素史克將再次實現良好的獲利成長。

Sales are expected to increase between 3% and 5%, core operating profit and EPS to increase between 6% and 8%, with EPS impacted by higher interest charges and the tax rate rising to around 17.5%, offset by up to a 1% benefit from the share buyback.

預計銷售額將成長 3% 至 5%，核心營業利潤和每股盈餘將成長 6% 至 8%，每股盈餘將受到利息費用增加和稅率上升至 17.5% 左右的影響，但股票回購最多可帶來 1% 的收益。

Some points to note for modelling purposes.

為了建模目的需要注意的一些點。

Firstly, we expect our sales growth to be driven by Specialty Medicines in 2025, which also benefits gross margin.

首先，我們預計 2025 年我們的銷售成長將由特種藥物推動，這也有利於毛利率。

Secondly, in terms of OpEx, we expect SG&A to grow at a low single-digit percentage, with strong investments behind product launches, whilst focusing on competitive precision analytics and an AI-enabled approach driving increased ROI.

其次，在營運支出方面，我們預期銷售、一般及行政開支將以低個位數百分比成長，並在產品發布後投入大量資金，同時專注於競爭性精準分析和人工智慧方法來提高投資回報率。

R&D is expected to grow broadly in line with sales as we prioritize investment in key pipeline assets, including RI&I, oncology, and next-generation vaccines.

由於我們優先投資關鍵管道資產，包括 RI&I、腫瘤學和下一代疫苗，預計研發將與銷售額大致同步成長。

And finally, we expect royalty income to be in the range of GBP650 million to GBP700 million.

最後，我們預計特許權使用費收入將在 6.5 億至 7 億英鎊之間。

As previously stated at Q3, our guidance incorporates a GBP400 million to GBP500 million revenue headwind from the introduction of the IRA.

如同先前在第三季所述，我們的預期包括了引入 IRA 帶來的 4 億至 5 億英鎊的收入阻力。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

In terms of phasing, we anticipate growth in 2025 to be second-half weighted, largely due to a significant sales base effect, particularly in Vaccines, as well as benefits last year that will not repeat, namely Zejula in Q1 and return and rebate adjustments in Q2.

在分階段方面，我們預計 2025 年的成長將由下半年決定，這主要歸因於顯著的銷售基數效應，尤其是疫苗領域，以及去年不會重複的收益，即第一季度的 Zejula 和第二季度的退貨和回扣調整。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Emma has covered the overall outlooks, and therefore, I would just like to give more color on the change in the product mix outlook from '21 to '26.

艾瑪已經介紹了整體前景，因此，我只想更詳細地介紹一下從'21年到'26年產品組合前景的變化。

The contribution from Specialty Medicines has increased significantly, with growth accelerating due to strong RI&I, oncology, and HIV performances.

特種藥物的貢獻顯著增加，由於 RI&I、腫瘤學和 HIV 的強勁表​​現，成長正在加速。

This performance momentum means we now expect to see a low to mid-teens 2026 CAGR ahead of the previous guidance, and for HIV specifically, to grow high-single digits across this period.

這種業績動能意味著，我們現在預計 2026 年的複合年增長率將達到低至中等水平，高於先前的預期，而對於 HIV 而言，在此期間的複合年增長率將達到高個位數。

For Vaccines, the recent performance has been volatile.

就疫苗而言，近期表現不穩定。

And whilst we continue to expect material contributions from Vaccines in the medium and long term, in the near term, we have reduced our expectations for the 2026 CAGR to a mid to high-single digits.

儘管我們仍預期疫苗將在中長期內做出重大貢獻，但在短期內，我們已將 2026 年複合年增長率的預期下調至中高個位數。

Where we ultimately land in the range will depend on a number of factors, most notably the overall US environment for vaccination, ACIP recommendations, disease incidence, and the China macro backdrop and its implications for Shingrix uptake.

我們最終處於哪個範圍將取決於許多因素，最顯著的是美國的整體疫苗接種環境、ACIP 建議、疾病發生率以及中國宏觀背景及其對 Shingrix 應用的影響。

General Medicines has also outperformed, which means we expect a low single-digit contribution to our '26 CAGR.

通用藥物的表現也非常出色，這意味著我們預計對 26 年複合年增長率的貢獻將低於個位數。

Alongside sales, we continue to focus on margin improvement, with no change to our guidance of more than 31% margin by 2026 and more than 500-basis-point improvement over the five years, and we continue to expect a broadly stable operating margin through the dolutegravir patent expiry.

除了銷售之外，我們繼續專注於利潤率的提高，我們的預期沒有變化，即到 2026 年利潤率將超過 31%，五年內利潤率將提高 500 個基點以上，並且我們繼續預計在多替拉韋專利到期前，營業利潤率將保持大致穩定。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Turning to our IR roadmap, we have made significant progress this year in our pipeline and execution, and the deployment of capital to support growth.

談到我們的 IR 路線圖，我們今年在通路和執行以及支援成長的資本部署方面取得了重大進展。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

And turning to 2025-2026, as mentioned, we expect five major approvals this year, including Blenrep and depemokimab.

展望 2025-2026 年，如上所述，我們預計今年將有五項重大批准，包括 Blenrep 和 depemokimab。

Over the coming 24 months, we also anticipate Phase III readouts for camlipixant for refractory chronic cough, and bepirovirsen for hepatitis B, as well as pivotal Phase IIs for our four-monthly HIV PrEP and Jemperli rectal cancer.

在未來的 24 個月內，我們也預計將公佈用於治療難治性慢性咳嗽的 camlipixant 和用於治療乙肝的 bepirovirsen 的 III 期臨床試驗結果，以及每四個月進行一次的 HIV PrEP 和 Jemperli 直腸癌的關鍵 II 期臨床試驗結果。

Next slide, please.

請看下一張投影片。

Before I finish, I just wanted to take a minute to reflect on the progress we've delivered over the last few years, which demonstrates a marked improvement in capital management, operational efficiency, and our commitment to improving outlooks.

在結束之前，我想花一點時間來回顧我們在過去幾年中取得的進展，這表明資本管理、營運效率和我們對改善前景的承諾都有了顯著改善。

Firstly, operating margin improved 360 basis points, and we have moderated the growth of SG&A as we leverage investments and take a disciplined returns-based approach, together with supply chain efficiencies and mixed benefits.

首先，營業利潤率提高了 360 個基點，而且我們利用投資、採取嚴謹的基於回報的方法，同時提高供應鏈效率和混合效益，從而減緩了銷售、一般及行政開支的增長。

Importantly, over the period, our investment into R&D is increased at a 10% CAGR, and going forward, R&D growth is expected to be broadly in line or ahead of sales.

重要的是，在此期間，我們對研發的投資以 10% 的複合年增長率成長，並且展望未來，預計研發成長將與銷售額成長大致一致或超過銷售額。

Secondly, cash generated from operations has been growing to about GBP8 billion per year since 2021, with 2024 being a record year adjusting for the one-off impact of Zantac.

其次，自 2021 年以來，營運現金流每年增長至約 80 億英鎊，2024 年將是調整 Zantac 一次性影響後創紀錄的一年。

We anticipate this rising further to more than GBP10 billion by 2026.

我們預計到 2026 年這一數字將進一步上升至 100 億英鎊以上。

This strong cash generation has allowed us to commit to a progressive dividend policy, with more than 5% growth over the last three years alone, and it has allowed us to announce the GBP2 billion share buyback program today.

強勁的現金創造能力使我們能夠實施漸進式股利政策，僅過去三年的成長率就超過 5%，這也使我們能夠在今天宣布 20 億英鎊的股票回購計畫。

Including this, we will have returned in excess of GBP8 billion of cash to shareholders over the three-year period to 2025.

包括這項收益，截至2025年的三年內我們將向股東返還超過80億英鎊的現金。

Our balance sheet is now very strong, with net debt to EBITDA at just 1.2 times, allowing a significant firepower for future BD and shareholder returns.

我們的資產負債表現在非常強勁，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率僅為 1.2 倍，為未來的 BD 和股東回報提供了強大的火力。

We will continue to benchmark all future deals against stringent criteria to ensure capital is deployed optimally.

我們將繼續根據嚴格的標準對所有未來的交易進行基準評估，以確保資本得到最佳配置。

And ultimately, you will only see us investing in opportunities that are strategically aligned to our main therapeutic areas.

最終，您只會看到我們投資與我們的主要治療領域具有策略一致性的機會。

And with that, I'd now like to hand back to Emma for her closing remarks.

現在，我想把發言權交給艾瑪，請她作結束語。

Thanks, Julie.

謝謝，朱莉。

So in summary, this comes on the back of a strong track record of operational delivery and accelerating progress in innovation and pipeline development, where, of course, there is always more to do.

總而言之，這是建立在良好的營運交付記錄和不斷加速的創新和管道開發進展的基礎上的，當然，還有很多工作要做。

Our portfolio is demonstrating both growth and resilience, built around high-quality Specialty Medicines and Vaccines, with more to come in key areas of therapeutic strength for GSK.

我們的產品組合以高品質特種藥品和疫苗為基礎，展現出成長力與韌性，未來也將在葛蘭素史克具有優勢的關鍵治療領域推出更多產品。

As we head into 2025, we expect another year of profitable growth and we have further improved our long-term outlook to sales of now more than GBP40 billion by 2031.

邁入 2025 年，我們預計將迎來一年的獲利成長，並且我們進一步改善了長期預期，預計到 2031 年銷售額將超過 400 億英鎊。

Our outperformance and stronger balance sheet support our future investment plans, including for more investment in R&D, more business development, as well as providing us with the opportunity to deliver enhanced shareholder returns.

我們的優異表現和更強勁的資產負債表支持了我們未來的投資計劃，包括增加對研發的投資、更多的業務發展，同時也為我們提供實現更高股東回報的機會。

All of this underscores GSK's opportunity to deliver scale health impact to patients through this decade and beyond, combining science, technology, and the talent of our people to get ahead of disease together.

所有這些都凸顯了葛蘭素史克在未來十年及以後為患者提供大規模健康影響的機會，即結合科學、技術和員工的才能，共同克服疾病。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And I will now open up the call for Q&A with the team.

現在我將開始與團隊進行問答。

(Event Instructions) Emily Field, Barclays.

（活動說明） 艾米莉·菲爾德，巴克萊銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I'll ask two, hopefully, quick ones.

我會問兩個問題，希望是快速的。

Firstly, I know you mentioned impact from sort of the China macro on Shingrix.

首先，我知道您提到了中國宏觀因素對 Shingrix 的影響。

Obviously, with the Merck announcement yesterday on Gardasil, a lot of concern that this has -- that deterioration in this outlook has accelerated.

顯然，隨著默克公司昨天宣布推出 Gardasil，許多人擔心這種前景的惡化會加速。

So I was just wondering if you could provide a little bit more granularity on your expectations for Shingrix in China in 2025.

所以我想知道您是否可以更詳細地介紹一下您對 2025 年 Shingrix 在中國的預期。

And then secondly, within the mid-single-digit growth for HIV for 2025, are you assuming much of a competitive impact from the launch of lenacapavir in the second half of this year?

其次，在 2025 年愛滋病毒感染率將達到中等個位數成長的情況下，您是否認為今年下半年推出的雷那帕韋將對競爭產生很大的影響？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

We'll come to David in a minute on HIV and our confidence there.

我們稍後會和戴維討論愛滋病毒問題以及我們對此的信心。

Let's go to Luke first on China.

我們先來聽聽路加對中國的描述。

I just would flag that this is something that we addressed last year with the repositioning of our deal with our trusted partner, Zhifei, and I think still remain.

我只是想指出，這是我們去年與我們值得信賴的合作夥伴智飛重新定位交易時解決的問題，我認為這個問題仍然存在。

The short-term pressures were acknowledged both through '24 and, of course, in the guidance that we've given to 2025, but none of that takes away from our longer-term ambition.

無論是在 2024 年，還是在我們對 2025 年的指導中，我們都承認短期壓力，但這些都不會影響我們的長期目標。

Luke, do you want to comment on China?

盧克，你想評論中國嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Emily.

謝謝，艾米麗。

I mean, as Emma said, there's not much more to add than what I covered on the Q3 call.

我的意思是，正如艾瑪所說，除了我在第三季電話會議上所講的內容之外，沒有什麼可以補充的。

I mean, our market shares are around 70%, and that's our target population there.

我的意思是，我們的市場份額約為 70%，這就是我們在那裡的目標人群。

We're very happy with the partnership with Zhifei, but the intent to extend it out to 2034 is to -- was to address exactly what we're seeing right now, which is just to navigate these short-term headwinds.

我們對與智飛的合作感到非常高興，但將合作延長至 2034 年的目的是為了解決我們目前看到的問題，即應對這些短期阻力。

Our focus operationally is partnering on the ground with Zhifei to expand in those high-tier cities.

我們的營運重點是與智飛進行實地合作，以向那些一線城市擴張。

And initial signs are encouraging, but again, I wouldn't expect too much in 2025.

初步跡象令人鼓舞，但我不會對 2025 年抱有太多期待。

This is a mid to longer-term play here.

這是一個中期至長期的行動。

Thanks.

謝謝。

HIV?

愛滋病?

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Emily.

謝謝，艾米麗。

So firstly, we're very pleased, obviously, with the continued strong growth momentum in HIV in Q4, contributing almost GBP2 billion of sales.

首先，我們非常高興看到第四季 HIV 業務持續保持強勁成長勢頭，貢獻了近 20 億英鎊的銷售額。

I think on your specific question, we certainly expect Apretude to continue to grow this year.

我想關於您提出的具體問題，我們當然預計 Apretude 今年將繼續成長。

First and foremost, the PrEP market in the US is actually significantly underdeveloped.

首先，美國的 PrEP 市場其實遠遠不夠發達。

The CDC estimates, I think, about 1.2 million Americans could benefit from PrEP, and today, only about a third of those are getting any form of PrEP treatment.

我認為，疾病預防控制中心估計，大約有 120 萬美國人可以從 PrEP 中受益，而目前，其中只有大約三分之一接受了任何形式的 PrEP 治療。

We also know that the PrEP market is very well suited to long-acting options, and I think Apretude and now the competitive product have very similar, like, strong efficacy, definitely better than the orals, mainly due to compliance.

我們也知道，PrEP 市場非常適合長效選擇，我認為 Apretude 和現在的競爭產品非常相似，例如療效強，絕對比口服藥物更好，主要是由於依從性。

So I think with a second long-acting entrant coming into the market this year, it should help grow the market for all of us.

因此我認為，隨著今年第二種長效藥物進入市場，這應該有助於我們所有人的市場成長。

And then, secondly, the competitive product definitely won't be for everyone.

其次，競爭產品絕對不會適合所有人。

We now know there's quite a high frequency of nodules that people experience in their abdomen, where the two injections are given.

我們現在知道，在接受這兩種注射的病人的腹部，出現結節的機率相當高。

I think in the pivotal studies, about 63% of participants experienced nodules with a mean duration of about six months and seven cases of ulceration.

我認為在關鍵研究中，約有 63% 的參與者出現了結節，平均持續時間約為六個月，有 7 例出現潰瘍。

I expect we'll learn a lot more as the year goes on through more data and more real-world evidence of exactly what type of patients and the size of these nodules and so forth.

我希望，隨著時間的推移，我們將透過更多的數據和更多的現實世界證據來了解更多關於患者類型以及這些結節的大小等等的資訊。

But for potential PrEP users who are body image conscious, which would be quite a proportion of them, I think, that potentially is an issue.

但對於那些注重身體形象的潛在 PrEP 使用者來說，我認為他們中相當一部分人，這可能是一個問題。

And then I'd also flag that the competitive product has quite a high number of drug-drug interactions, mainly 14 classes of commonly prescribed prescription medicines -- corticosteroids, erectile dysfunction meds, and so forth -- and also DDIs with recreational and sex drugs -- opiates, fentanyls, and so forth.

然後我還要指出的是，競爭產品有相當多的藥物交互作用，主要是 14 類常用處方藥 - 皮質類固醇、勃起功能障礙藥物等 - 以及與娛樂性和性藥物的 DDI - 阿片類藥物、芬太尼等。

And these DDIs can be serious and, in very extreme cases, potentially cause fatal respiratory depression.

這些 DDI 可能非常嚴重，在極端情況下，可能會導致致命的呼吸抑制。

So again, for PrEP users or potential PrEP users who are taking these meds, it may not be for them.

因此，對於服用這些藥物的 PrEP 使用者或潛在的 PrEP 使用者來說，它可能不適合他們。

So we'll see how this unfolds, but I think we expect to grow in a growing market.

因此，我們將觀察事態如何發展，但我認為，我們預計將在不斷增長的市場中實現成長。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

And just to underpin, we welcome the opportunities to grow the market.

需要強調的是，我們歡迎擴大市場的機會。

But even if this market triples in size and we get to the 100% participation, so the part of the market that the CDC said could be, treatment is still where most of the business is, and here, we obviously lead the way.

但即使這個市場規模擴大三倍，並達到 100% 的參與率，也就是 CDC 所說的市場部分，治療仍然是業務的主要部分，而在這裡，我們顯然處於領先地位。

So next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Richard Parkes, BNPP Exane.

理查德·帕克斯（Richard Parkes），法國國家銀行 Exane 部門。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So I've got a couple of questions on Vaccines and the targets.

我有幾個關於疫苗和目標的問題。

So on Arexvy, obviously you saw rapid penetration of the US market, but there's still a large international opportunity.

因此，在 Arexvy 上，顯然你看到了美國市場的快速滲透，但仍然存在巨大的國際機會。

Can you discuss how prepared you are to access that in 2025 and what the key factors are in driving that or limiting your ability to access that opportunity?

您能否討論一下您在 2025 年為實現這一目標做好了哪些準備，以及推動或限制您實現這一機會的關鍵因素是什麼？

And then again, on Vaccines, obviously you talked about moderating expectations for Arexvy, Shingrix.

再者，關於疫苗，您顯然談到了對 Arexvy、Shingrix 的適度期望。

Can you talk about what's assumed for peak sales of both those products now?

您能談談目前這兩種產品的銷售高峰預計是多少嗎？

Because I think the market's quite sceptical about your prior peak sales targets, given the current headwinds.

因為我認為，考慮到當前的不利因素，市場對您之前的最高銷售目標相當懷疑。

And just wondering what the offsets are to raising your 2031 targets.

我只是想知道提高 2031 年目標的抵銷因素是什麼。

I know Blenrep's obviously been included, but it sounds like there's some other offsets there where you're more optimistic.

我知道 Blenrep 顯然已被包括在內，但聽起來還有其他一些抵消因素讓你感到更樂觀。

So helping understand those moving parts would be helpful.

因此，幫助理解這些活動部件將會很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Richard, and I'll come to Luke to add a bit more color on how we see the opportunities for growth over time on Arexvy because we really are in the foothills of this vaccine which, as you know, we're really thrilled with the data that's come through on its efficacy in a high burden of disease area.

謝謝理查德，我將請盧克更詳細地介紹我們如何看待 Arexvy 隨著時間的推移而實現的增長機會，因為我們確實處於這種疫苗的山腳下，如你所知，我們對該疫苗在高疾病負擔地區的療效數據感到非常興奮。

Explicitly, there's no change to our ambitions for our assets, be that our existing ones or some exciting pipeline that's coming through later in the decade.

顯然，我們對資產的期望並沒有改變，無論是現有的資產還是未來十年內即將推出的一些令人興奮的資產。

The real question is actually the area under the curve.

真正的問題其實是曲線下的面積。

And obviously, last year, you saw us recalibrate our expectations in '24.

顯然，去年您看到我們重新調整了對 24 年的期望。

We did say, Q3, we expected to recalibrate those -- to maintain that and acknowledge the short-term pressures on Vaccines in '25.

我們確實說過，在第三季度，我們預計會重新調整這些目標——以維持這一目標並承認 25 年疫苗面臨的短期壓力。

Julie flagged then that we expected the mix to change.

朱莉當時就指出，我們預期組合將會改變。

She's been more explicit today.

她今天說得更明確了。

We've been more explicit today on how that mix changes.

今天我們更清楚地說明了這個組合是如何變化的。

And obviously, that has flowed through to our updated 2031 outlooks, alongside, as you suggest, Richard, the impact of 13 positive Phase IIIs, the momentum in our specialty business more broadly.

顯然，這已經滲透到了我們最新的 2031 年展望中，同時，正如理查德您所說，13 個積極的 III 期臨床試驗的影響，也更廣泛地推動了我們專業業務的發展勢頭。

And as Julie said, we've upgraded whilst acknowledging the pressures on Vaccines, we've upgraded our '26 outlooks for total Specialty, for HIV, also for Gen Meds.

正如朱莉所說，我們在承認疫苗壓力的同時，也提升了對整個專科、愛滋病毒和普通藥物的 26 年展望。

These have rolled through, and we've added in Blenrep.

這些已經推出，並且我們已經添加了 Blenrep。

And as I outlined in my introduction, this doesn't yet include our intent to invest in progressing the early-stage pipeline or our intent to pursue further BD like the kind of assets that you've -- right at the beginning of January, IDRX isn't yet in there.

正如我在介紹中概述的那樣，這還不包括我們投資推進早期管道的意圖，也不包括我們追求進一步 BD 的意圖，就像您所擁有的那種資產一樣 - 就在 1 月初，IDRX 還沒有進入那裡。

So I think the key takeaway on this is the strength of our broader portfolio.

因此，我認為這方面的關鍵點在於我們更廣泛的投資組合的實力。

The progress we're making in the broader pipeline means we can digest these -- what we think of short-term pressures in both the US and in China, and we remain optimistic about our broader Vaccines pipeline.

我們在更廣泛的疫苗研發過程中取得的進展意味著我們可以消化這些——我們對美國和中國的短期壓力的看法，並且我們對更廣泛的疫苗研發過程仍然持樂觀態度。

And lots more to come, particularly in oncology and RI&I, be it Blenrep or ADCs or the other pipeline that's coming through.

還有更多，特別是在腫瘤學和 RI&I 領域，無論是 Blenrep 還是 ADC 或其他正在開發的管道。

So with that, I think let's come back explicitly to Arexvy, Luke, and how you see the international opportunity, whatever the weather in the US is at the moment.

因此，我想讓我們明確地回到 Arexvy、盧克的話題上，無論美國目前的天氣如何，您如何看待國際機會。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Emma, and thanks, Richard.

謝謝，艾瑪，謝謝，理查。

I mean, last year, we had about 15% of revenue was ex-US.

我的意思是，去年我們有大約 15% 的收入來自美國以外。

I'm very encouraged by what we're seeing.

我對我們所看到的一切感到非常鼓舞。

It's early days, but we know what we're doing in this context.

現在還為時過早，但我們知道我們在這種情況下在做什麼。

I think with these national immunization programs, which I said earlier, we've got six that's in the UK, Greece, everyone in Czech, Saudi, strong tender there, as well as critical success with STIKO in Germany, in addition to the US, I think it's an encouraging start.

我認為，透過我之前提到的這些國家免疫計劃，我們已經在英國、希臘、捷克和沙烏地阿拉伯開展了六個計劃，在那裡獲得了強有力的招標，此外，除了美國之外，STIKO 在德國也取得了關鍵成功，我認為這是一個令人鼓舞的開始。

I think what also is important is these systems will differentiate based on clinical data, and the market research that we have in these key markets is certainly very encouraging in terms of the perception of Arexvy, the efficacy in high-risk groups, as well as the durability and cost-effectiveness of the vaccine.

我認為同樣重要的是，這些系統將根據臨床數據進行區分，我們在這些關鍵市場進行的市場研究在對 Arexvy 的看法、在高危險群中的有效性以及疫苗的耐用性和成本效益方面無疑非常令人鼓舞。

So look forward to updating you more this year, but so far, it's a good start.

因此，期待今年能為您提供更多更新，但到目前為止，這是一個好的開始。

Thanks, Luke.

謝謝，盧克。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Peter Welford, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的彼得‧韋爾福德 (Peter Welford)。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

Firstly, just sticking with Arexvy, but this time in the US, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the commercial environment there if you can.

首先，我繼續談論 Arexvy，但這次是在美國，如果可以的話，我想知道您是否可以談論那裡的商業環境。

Because I guess in the last -- particularly the last part of the season that we can see the prescription data for, it looks as though Pfizer is beginning to claw back quite a bit of share compared to what we've seen in the past.

因為我想，在最後一個季度，特別是在我們可以看到處方數據的最後部分，與過去相比，輝瑞似乎開始奪回相當大的份額。

Can you just talk a little bit about contracting that you're seeing, I guess, for this year, and perhaps also reluctance, I guess, on that from pharmacies and buyers, I guess, to engage, given what I imagine from their part must be pretty uncertain demand going into the next season, which I appreciate is still months and months away.

您能否簡單談談今年您所看到的合約情況，以及藥局和買家可能不願意參與的情況，因為我認為他們對於下一季的需求一定非常不確定，我知道下一季還需要好幾個月的時間。

And then secondly, just on the buyback, I mean, clearly reflects your confidence in the longer-term pipeline that you already have, I'm guessing, internally, relative to how the market perceives the R&D and what you have for new launches.

其次，就回購而言，我的意思是，這清楚地反映了您對已經擁有的長期產品線的信心，我猜，在內部，相對於市場如何看待研發以及您對新產品的推出。

So I guess, could you talk a little bit about how -- I guess, how much of when we look at that chart, how much of it do you think is reflecting also things like long-acting HIV?

所以我想，您能否稍微談一談——我想，當我們看那張圖表時，您認為其中有多少也反映了諸如長效愛滋病毒之類的因素？

And maybe you can put a number on how big do you think the HIV long-acting business could be beyond the sort of LOE expires that we're seeing?

您或許可以估算一下，在我們看到的 LOE 到期之後，HIV 長效藥物業務的規模能有多大？

And I guess, just trying to build some confidence into what is it the market's missing, do you think, in terms of the sort of resilience, perhaps, of the base business that gives you the confidence to do -- to allocate capital to a buyback today?

我想，只是想建立一些信心，看看市場缺少什麼，您認為，就基礎業務的彈性而言，也許這能讓您有信心去做——今天分配資本進行回購？

Yeah.

是的。

Well, lots of questions in that, Peter.

嗯，彼得，這裡面有很多問題。

I'll come back in a minute to Luke on the US commercial environment in vaccines.

稍後我將向盧克介紹美國疫苗的商業環境。

Obviously, lots of external commentary and speculation on that for 2025, which also depends on where we see the sort of pressure of the external environment.

顯然，對2025年有很多外部評論和猜測，這也取決於我們看到外部環境的壓力。

But Luke can add further comment on the commercial side.

但盧克可以就商業方面發表進一步的評論。

Buyback is completely consistent with the capital allocation framework that we've laid out.

回購與我們制定的資本配置架構完全一致。

And the first priority continues to be, as both Julie and I said, to invest in the future growth of the company, to invest in the pipeline, to invest it competitively.

正如朱莉和我所說，首要任務仍然是投資公司的未來成長、投資管道、進行有競爭力的投資。

And these exciting new launches that we've got coming through, be that the five approvals we hope to have this year, or hopefully as they progress, the 14 key assets that R&D with commercial partners are working together on bringing forward.

我們即將推出的這些令人興奮的新產品，包括我們希望今年獲得的五項批准，或者希望隨著它們的進展，研發部門與商業夥伴共同努力推出的 14 項關鍵資產。

We also want to continue to supplement that and plan to continue to supplement that with further business development.

我們也希望繼續補充這一點，並計劃透過進一步的業務發展繼續補充這一點。

The point is that alongside that priority, we also continue to demonstrate our focus on improving shareholder returns.

重點是，除了這項優先事項之外，我們還將繼續專注於提高股東回報。

And obviously, considering the momentum in the business, the progress in the business, the strengthening of the balance sheet, we are very confident that we have both the circumstances and the opportunity to deliver really compelling returns to shareholders with this announcement that we've made today.

顯然，考慮到業務的發展勢頭、業務的進展和資產負債表的加強，我們非常有信心，透過今天發布的這項公告，我們既有條件，也有機會為股東帶來真正令人信服的回報。

Now, I am not going to guide by individual product forecast in terms of what we will deliver in 2030.

現在，我不會根據單一產品的預測來指導我們在 2030 年將交付什麼。

We've given a, I think, reasonable schematic that we've presented you that shows most importantly, and this is really the key thing I think people should take away from today, is our biggest business.

我認為，我們給了一個合理的示意圖，它顯示了最重要的一點，也是我認為人們今天應該了解的關鍵一點，那就是我們最大的業務。

We're at 19% in 2024, with every single therapy area growing at double digits.

到 2024 年，這一比例將達到 19%，每個治療領域將達到兩位數的成長。

It's still a nascent business, but the progress we're making in oncology is very exciting.

這仍然是一個新興行業，但我們在腫瘤學領域的進展非常令人興奮。

And we have a potentially really material contribution to make, even if the launch is staged, and it's really about the contribution to '26 to '31, certainly not to '25.

即使發射是分階段的，我們也有可能做出真正實質的貢獻，這實際上是對 2026 年至 2031 年的貢獻，肯定不是對 2025 年的貢獻。

But we're very excited about Blenrep coming through.

但我們對於 Blenrep 的成功感到非常興奮。

And remember, that doesn't yet include first line, but we were pleased to start the study.

請記住，這還不包括第一行，但我們很高興開始這項研究。

Let's see.

讓我們來看看。

But the data we have on overall survival is, we think, game changing as well as life changing.

但我們認為，我們掌握的有關整體生存的數據不僅可以改變生活，還能改變遊戲規則。

And so very excited to see what comes there and what could be added with ADCs and further progress we want to make.

我們非常高興地看到那裡發生了什麼、ADC 可以添加什麼以及我們想要的進一步進展。

Explicitly on HIV, the six-monthly drugs are not yet included in this outlook.

明確針對愛滋病毒，六個月的藥物尚未納入本展望。

So that's also worth bearing in mind.

所以這也值得牢記。

So I think that's where people should focus.

所以我認為這是人們應該關注的地方。

No one should doubt for one second our commitment to our Vaccines portfolio.

任何人都不應該懷疑我們對疫苗產品組合的承諾。

But really, it's the shift in the mix, which, as Julie also said, secures the profitability of the business and the gross margin too.

但實際上，正如朱莉所說，這是一種產品組合的轉變，也確保了業務的獲利能力和毛利率。

So with that, maybe, Luke, you can comment specifically on the commercial world in vaccines at the moment, I guess.

因此，盧克，也許您可以具體評論一下目前的疫苗商業化。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

I mean, I think when ACIP came out with its surprising decision in June, I mean, we called a spade a spade and we said it was going to be tough.

我的意思是，我認為當 ACIP 在六月做出令人驚訝的決定時，我們直言不諱，並表示這將是艱難的。

And I think the evidence has indicated that that was correct.

我認為證據表明這是正確的。

If you look at penetration rates in the US, the most recent data we have is in November.

如果你看看美國的滲透率，我們掌握的最新數據是11月的。

If you contrast that with December of 2023, I mean, what ACIP signalled has clearly happened.

如果將其與 2023 年 12 月進行對比，我的意思是，ACIP 發出的信號顯然已經發生了。

People follow ACIP.

人們追隨 ACIP。

If you look at penetration, the 75 plus population at the end of '23, it was about 17%.

如果你看一下滲透率，23 年底 75 歲以上的人口比例約為 17%。

It only increased up to 26% over 2024.

到 2024 年，這一數字僅增加了 26%。

And if you look at high-risk individuals in the 60 to 74 population, it went from 11% to 18%.

如果你看看 60 至 74 歲族群中的高風險個體，這一比例從 11% 上升到 18%。

And in the generally healthy population, where ACIP was steering people away, it just increased from 9.4% to around 14%.

而在普遍健康的人群中，ACIP 引導人們遠離該族群，而該族群的盛行率卻從 9.4% 上升至 14% 左右。

So there is a shift here in terms of demand.

因此，從需求面來看，這裡發生了轉變。

If we look at market research and profile, physicians still prefer Arexvy.

如果我們看一下市場研究和概況，醫生仍然更喜歡 Arexvy。

But, and I've said this a couple of times, for me, the key element here is to navigate what we think is going to be a transition from a three-vaccine market to a two-vaccine market.

但是，我已經說過幾次了，對我來說，這裡的關鍵因素是引導我們認為從三個疫苗市場向兩種疫苗市場的過渡。

There's a huge amount of pressure, competitive pressure in the market through the contracting cycle.

在承包週期中，市場面臨巨大的壓力和競爭壓力。

Last year, I think we've navigated that quite well.

去年，我認為我們已經很好地解決了這個問題。

Our focus remains on retail.

我們的重點仍然放在零售上。

And what I would strongly stress is we need to compare apples with apples when we're talking market shares.

我要強調的是，當我們談論市場佔有率時，我們需要進行同類比較。

So you need to adjust the market shares from internal volumes where we don't have the label.

因此，您需要根據我們沒有標籤的內部銷售來調整市場佔有率。

So if you do that, at the end of 2024, we had about a 58% market share.

如果這樣做的話，到 2024 年底，我們的市佔率將達到約 58%。

So about 4.1 doses out of 7 million were with Arexvy.

因此，700 萬劑中約有 4.1 劑是使用 Arexvy。

I think we're happy with that.

我想我們對此很滿意。

The key thing is to preserve value and position ourselves for the future when we do think ACIP ultimately will move to expand its population.

當我們確實認為 ACIP 最終將擴大其人口時，關鍵在於保留價值並為未來做好準備。

Based on the evidence, there will be a revax at some point, and we want to be positioned to compete with Pfizer very actively at that point.

根據證據，在某個時候會出現改革，我們希望在那時能非常積極地與輝瑞競爭。

Thanks, Luke.

謝謝，盧克。

And David, I think you want to add something on the six-monthly?

大衛，我想你想在六個月內添加一些內容嗎？

Just on the six-monthly, Peter, I mean, as Emma said, it's not in our forecast, but I certainly agree with you that it could be a potential upside.

僅就六個月而言，彼得，我的意思是，正如艾瑪所說，這不在我們的預測中，但我當然同意你的看法，這可能是一個潛在的上升空間。

This year will actually be an important year for six-monthly.

今年其實對半年刊來說將是重要的一年。

We will have proof of concept data on 184 and also the two options that we could put with either 184 or one of the other entities.

我們將對 184 進行概念驗證數據，同時也將提供可以與 184 或其他實體結合的兩個選項。

So N6LS, the EMBRACE study of six months, I think we'll have a CROI and also our capsid.

因此，N6LS，為期六個月的 EMBRACE 研究，我認為我們將獲得 CROI 以及我們的衣殼。

So the aim is to look at that data this year and then make a regimen selection for treatment and also choose our INSTI for PrEP next year and potentially start running the pivotal studies in 2027.

因此，我們的目標是今年查看這些數據，然後選擇治療方案，並在明年選擇我們的 INSTI 用於 PrEP，並可能在 2027 年開始進行關鍵研究。

So as we go into next year and '27, that's probably the time when we're thinking about formalizing the forecasts.

因此，當我們進入明年和2027年時，可能正是我們考慮正式確定預測的時候。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

And let's remember, it was only four years ago that we said we were expecting more than GBP33 billion in 2031.

我們還記得，僅僅四年前我們還說過預計 2031 年的收入將超過 330 億英鎊。

Today, it's more than GBP40 billion.

如今，這一數字已超過400億英鎊。

And you can see we're already close to that number in the near term.

您可以看到，我們近期已經接近這個數字。

So yes, we are confident in our prospects.

所以是的，我們對我們的前景充滿信心。

And yes, we know we've always got more to do.

是的，我們知道我們還有更多的事情要做。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Steve Scala, TD Cowen.

史蒂夫·斯卡拉（TD Cowen）。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That was my mistake.

那是我的錯。

Two questions.

兩個問題。

For Nucala, is the exacerbation data competitive with DUPIXENT and have you shown an FEV benefit?

對於 Nucala，其惡化數據是否與 DUPIXENT 具有競爭力，並且是否顯示 FEV 優勢？

I mean, if not, your statements that you will lead in COPD might seem less secure.

我的意思是，如果不是這樣，那麼您將領導 COPD 領域的聲明可能看起來就不那麼有把握了。

And secondly, you noted that GSK expects changes to US vaccine policy.

其次，您提到葛蘭素史克預計美國疫苗政策將會改變。

This contrasts with what another major vaccine company said just last week when they reported.

這與另一家大型疫苗公司上週的報告形成鮮明對比。

That company expects no changes.

該公司預計不會有任何變化。

So in practical, on-the-ground, everyday terms, what exactly do you expect to happen and to which vaccines?

那麼從實際出發，在日常工作中，您究竟期望發生什麼情況，以及針對哪種疫苗？

Or is this more of kind of a vague concern?

或者這只是一種模糊的擔憂？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, thanks, Steve.

好吧，謝謝，史蒂夫。

I'll come to Tony in a second on Nucala.

我馬上就來和東尼談論努卡拉。

The only point I would make is our ambition in COPD is across a portfolio of pipeline that Tony did share in December.

我唯一想說的是，我們在 COPD 領域的雄心壯志涵蓋了 Tony 12 月分享的一系列產品線。

So as well as Nucala, I'm sure he'll want to comment on that.

因此，我相信他和努卡拉一樣，也會對此發表評論。

Nucala is just the first foray into biologics for us there.

Nucala 只是我們進軍生物製劑領域的第一步。

And then in terms of changes to US, I think our point was we note the significant speculation, and let's face it, there's been a lot of it over the last few months, around what kind of changes there might be to US vaccine policy.

關於美國的變化，我認為我們的觀點是，我們注意到了重大的猜測，讓我們面對現實吧，過去幾個月來，關於美國疫苗政策可能發生什麼樣的變化，出現了很多猜測。

And that is definitely one of the contributors to our view around the short-term pressures on the environment in the US.

這無疑是我們看待美國短期環境壓力的因素。

We also, as Luke re-emphasized, are still living with the decisions that were made by ACIP last year.

正如盧克再次強調的那樣，我們仍然在遵守 ACIP 去年做出的決定。

And the key assumption is from us in that context is that there will be no further indications or cohort expansion assumed on RSV this year, although we do over time expect them to be added, and as Luke said, revax as well.

在這種情況下，我們做出的關鍵假設是，今年將不會再對 RSV 做出進一步的適應症或擴大隊列，儘管我們確實預計隨著時間的推移它們會被添加，正如 Luke 所說，revax 也是如此。

I think the only point I would add, without wishing to predict exactly what's going to happen, is it was good to hear through the nomination process, RFK reiterate his recognition of the value of vaccines, his own children have been vaccinated, and also obviously over the weekend, to hear that in the discussions with Senator Cassidy, the CDC vaccine guidance and ACIP should remain unchanged.

我認為我唯一想補充的一點是，我不想準確預測接下來會發生什麼，那就是很高興聽到在提名過程中，羅伯特·肯尼迪重申了他對疫苗價值的認識，他自己的孩子也接種了疫苗，而且顯然在周末，在與卡西迪參議員的討論中，聽到 CDC 疫苗指導和 ACIP 應該保持不變。

So let's see how this plays out.

那麼讓我們看看事情會如何發展。

We'll all know a lot more through 2025 and look forward to some of the speculation being settled here.

到 2025 年，我們將了解更多信息，並期待一些猜測能夠在這裡得到解決。

Tony, do you want to

東尼，你想

--

--

Yeah, let me start.

好的，讓我開始吧。

Steve, the first thing I'd say is we're looking forward to being able to share the total Nucala data set with you soon.

史蒂夫，我想說的第一件事是，我們期待著能夠很快與您分享完整的 Nucala 資料集。

I'm obviously not going to get into the details of that ahead of publication, but perhaps I might just stress a few aspects of this, in particular in the context of exacerbations and the patient population.

顯然，在發表之前我不會詳細討論這個問題，但也許我可以強調其中的幾個方面，特別是在病情惡化和患者群體的背景下。

So if approved, Nucala is going to be the first monthly biologic proven to reduce exacerbations across the full spectrum of COP disease, and in particular, that includes individuals with emphysema, who are the most difficult to treat.

因此，如果獲得批准，Nucala 將成為第一個被證明可以減少整個 COP 疾病譜中病情惡化的月度生物製劑，特別是最難治療的肺氣腫患者。

You'll recall from the data that we've previously published around the two prior Phase 3 studies that across that population, an exacerbation reduction risk in the order of around about 20% is typical in the broader population.

您會記得，從我們之前發布的兩項 3 期研究的數據來看，在整個人群中，大約 20% 左右的急性加重減少風險是更廣泛人群的典型特徵。

I'd also stress that we went to great lengths to ensure that we removed comorbid asthma patients from that study as well, and so I don't think it's difficult to compare side by side.

我還要強調的是，我們竭盡全力確保將合併氣喘的患者也從研究中剔除，因此我認為進行並排比較並不困難。

However, we have a broader population, about a third of the COPD population have emphysema, and I might ask you just to comment on that.

然而，我們的人群更加廣泛，大約三分之一的 COPD 患者患有肺氣腫，我可能會請您對此發表評論。

But one final thing, again, if you look back in our data, at similar populations, and we've published similar sorts of headline efficacy on exacerbations, but it's important not to compare across headline data because of the very different patient characteristics in the two studies.

最後再說一點，如果你回顧我們的數據，在相似的人群中，我們已經發表了類似的針對疾病惡化的總體療效，但重要的是不要跨總體數據進行比較，因為兩項研究中的患者特徵非常不同。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Steve.

謝謝，史蒂夫。

I mean, Tony and I have spent a lot of time talking about this.

我的意思是，托尼和我花了很多時間討論這個問題。

I think you just need to look at it practically on the ground.

我認為你只需要實際地觀察一下就可以了。

Tony mentioned about a third of those patients have emphysema alone, about a third of them have bronchitis, but also a third of them have mixed, and it can be difficult to separate those.

Tony 提到，大約三分之一的患者僅患有肺氣腫，大約三分之一的患者患有支氣管炎，但也有三分之一的患者患有混合性疾病，很難區分這些疾病。

So just practically, also when you look at the DUPIXENT population, they were not sick.

因此實際上，當您觀察 DUPIXENT 人群時，他們並沒有生病。

They were gold two to three, so moderate to severe, whereas we were two to four, which included very severe.

他們的評級是金牌二到三級，即中度到嚴重，而我們的評級是金牌二到四級，包括非常嚴重。

And I think if you look at what the gold report, which just came out last year, said, it's pretty much positioning DUPIXENT in that bronchitis subset.

我認為，如果你看看去年剛發布的黃金報告，你會發現它基本上將 DUPIXENT 定位於支氣管炎亞組。

So again, I don't want to pre-empt our data, but I think we have a broader argument here.

所以再說一次，我不想搶先獲取我們的數​​據，但我認為我們在這裡有更廣泛的論點。

And also, the important thing is to focus on hospitalizations because when people go into hospital, obviously many of them don't come out, and it sets off a cascade here.

此外，重要的是關注住院情況，因為當人們住院時，顯然很多人不會出來，這會引發連鎖反應。

So in summary, we've got efficacy and tougher-to-treat patients, a broader population, and yeah, let's see what the publication and the reception from the community says, but we intend to compete.

總而言之，我們的藥物具有療效，並且適用於更難治療的患者和更廣泛的人群，是的，讓我們看看出版物和社區的反響如何，但我們打算參與競爭。

There was a request from DUPIXENT for more competition, and we intend to provide it.

DUPIXENT 要求提供更多競爭，我們打算提供它。

I mean, this is what's great, is the opportunity to grow biologics on the back, by the way, of fantastic Trelegy business in COPD, and I am really excited to see what long-acting drugs are going to bring here.

我的意思是，這是一件很棒的事情，順便說一句，這是一個在 Trelegy 在 COPD 領域出色的業務基礎上發展生物製劑的機會，我非常興奮地看到長效藥物將帶來什麼。

So good to see that we're going to be going into a COPD study for depe.

很高興看到我們將要進行針對 COPD 的 Depe 研究。

We've also got the ILs and T-slip as well that Tony laid out.

我們還得到了 Tony 佈置的 IL 和 T-slip。

So I think this is the beginning of some exciting prospects in biologics that will get much stronger through the end of the decade, too, in a disease that is the third leasing cause of death.

所以，我認為這是生物製劑領域一些令人興奮的前景的開始，到本世紀末，對於一種位列第三大死亡原因的疾病而言，生物製劑領域將變得更加強大。

And so when you're talking about scale opportunities to address health in a field that we really know what we're talking about, this is a good one.

因此，當您談論在我們真正了解的領域中解決健康問題的規模機會時，這是一個很好的機會。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Rajan Sharma, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的拉詹夏爾馬 (Rajan Sharma)。

Just first one was on HIV.

第一個是關於愛滋病毒的。

Could you just discuss the dynamics driving that positive impact from channel mix?

您能否討論一下推動通路組合產生正面影響的動力？

Is that implying that there's a low proportion of Medicaid patients?

這是否意味著醫療補助患者的比例很低？

And do you expect that to continue into '25 and '26.

您預計這種情況會持續到 2025 年和 2026 年嗎？

And then the second question is just on the 2031 guidance update.

第二個問題是關於 2031 年指導更新。

So you've taken up guidance by GBP2 billion in revenue, which includes BLENREP, which you've previously as GBP3 billion peak sales opportunity.

因此，您已接受了 20 億英鎊的收入預期，其中包括 BLENREP，而您之前曾將其列為 30 億英鎊的高峰銷售機會。

So just to be clear, should we read that as kind of a GBP1 billion reduction in the guidance, excluding BLENREP or are you not expecting BLENREP to reach its peak into that.

因此，需要明確的是，我們是否應該將其理解為指導金額減少 10 億英鎊（不包括 BLENREP），或者您是否預計 BLENREP 不會達到高峰。

And then just related, there's obviously quite a bit of a difference between where consensus is right now.

然後就相關而言，顯然與目前的共識有很大差異。

Is there anything particularly that you'd call out as where that delta is?

您能特別指出這個三角洲在哪裡嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean Julie, you might want to comment in a minute on consensus as much as you wish to, and I'll come to David on HIV.

我的意思是朱莉，你可能想在一分鐘內盡可能多地對共識發表評論，我會談談關於愛滋病毒的大衛。

But first of all, to be clear, the outlook for '31 is a more than GBP40 billion.

但首先要明確的是，31年的預期收入將超過 400 億英鎊。

And we're pleased to have moved that up, as I've said, which is a combination of rolling forward the mix shift in '26, progress in our Phase III results and across the portfolio and the inclusion of the BLENREP second-line launch as well.

正如我所說的，我們很高興能夠實現這一目標，這是 26 年產品組合轉變的推進、我們第三階段成果和整個投資組合的進展以及 BLENREP 二線發布的結合。

There is no change to our ambition for BLENREP to be more than GBP3 billion peak year sales.

我們對 BLENREP 的年銷售額高峰超過 30 億英鎊的目標沒有改變。

There was no time put on that, and we're looking forward to the contribution of the five approvals that we flagged and more to come, really contributing to that '26 to '31 outlook.

這方面沒有時間限制，我們期待已批准的五項以及未來更多的批准能夠真正為 2026 年至 2031 年的前景做出貢獻。

So David, do you want to comment on the HIV?

那麼大衛，你想對愛滋病毒發表評論嗎？

Right.

正確的。

I think the main channel mix evolution we expect this year is just the ongoing rise of 343, which is somewhat of a headwind, but not huge.

我認為，我們今年預期的主要渠道組合演變只是 343 的持續崛起，這在某種程度上是一個逆風，但並不大。

Other than that, I think it's going to be more of the same in the medicaid and the related programs like Ryan White ADAP and so forth are about 40% of the U.S. HIV book of business.

除此之外，我認為醫療補助和相關項目（如 Ryan White ADAP 等）的情況將大致相同，約占美國愛滋病業務的 40%。

Medicare is about 20%.

醫療保險約20%。

That is steadily increasing over time.

隨著時間的推移，這一數字正在穩步增長。

Obviously, as patients get older, and the rest is private insurance.

顯然，隨著患者年齡的增長，剩下的就是私人保險。

So very much apart from 340B, I think pretty much the same trends continuing.

因此，除了 340B 之外，我認為相同的趨勢基本上會持續下去。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So Julia.

所以朱莉婭。

So in terms of the difference with consensus in terms of our outlook, which is more than GBP40 billion, the two main therapeutic areas where we've got a difference our oncology and respiratory immunology and inflammation.

因此，就我們前景與共識的差異而言，該差異超過 400 億英鎊，我們在腫瘤學、呼吸免疫學和發炎這兩個主要治療領域存在差異。

And within the oncology category, the two biggest ones are BLENREP.

在腫瘤學類別中，最大的兩種藥物是 BLENREP。

And obviously, people are probably waiting for the law and then also Jemperli.

顯然，人們可能正在等待法律的出台，然後還有 Jemperli。

So we've got life cycle indication.

因此我們得到了生命週期指示。

And you've seen the track record we've got on Jemperli already with some important readouts coming up.

您已經看到了我們關於 Jemperli 的記錄，即將發布一些重要的數據。

So those are two big differences.

所以這是兩個很大的差別。

And then within the respiratory immunology and inflammation area, we've got camlipixant, where obviously people are waiting for the readout that's coming in about a year.

在呼吸道免疫學和發炎領域，我們有了卡利匹克（camlipixant），顯然人們正在等待大約一年後的結果。

And then also depomokimab, interestingly, even though we've now got successful filing.

有趣的是，還有 depomokimab，儘管我們現在已經成功提交申請。

Clearly, we've got the approval expected towards the end of the year and the launch at the beginning of '26.

顯然，我們預計將在今年年底獲得批准，並於26年初推出。

So those are the main areas of difference, which we have got with consensus.

這些就是主要的分歧點，我們已經達成了共識。

Let's remember, I think it's 72% of reductions in exacerbations that cause hospitalization on DPI.

讓我們記住，我認為 DPI 導致住院的病情惡化減少了 72%。

So even if that's really a '26 launch totally with an approval at the end of this year, just considering the burden of disease, cost of hospitalization, the enthusiasm and Lou presented this research before from HCPs as well as patients for this that's definitely one to watch.

因此，即使這項技術真的要在 26 年推出，並在今年年底獲得批准，但只要考慮到疾病負擔、住院費用、HCP 和患者對此的熱情以及 Lou 之前介紹的研究，這絕對值得關注。

Justin Smith, Bernstein.

賈斯汀·史密斯，伯恩斯坦。

Yes.

是的。

Many.

許多。

It's just one on BLENREP.

它只是 BLENREP 上的一個。

I'm sorry if this is a slightly ignorant question, but with regards to that DREAMM-10 Phase III first line, the MRD endpoint.

抱歉，這個問題問得有點無知，但關於 DREAMM-10 第三階段的第一線，MRD 終點。

Just could you share a few thoughts how that endpoint resonates with payers and community docs, particularly those outside the U.S..

您能否分享一些想法，說明該終點如何與付款人和社群文件產生共鳴，特別是美國以外的文件？

Let me just start with the dynamics and data plan associated with MRD and remind you of what we've already seen with molecular bases in DREAMM-7 and DREAMM-8 and then Luke perhaps I can hand over to you in terms of the the resonance with key docs.

讓我先從與 MRD 相關的動態和數據計劃開始，並提醒您我們已經在 DREAMM-7 和 DREAMM-8 中看到過的分子鹼基，然後 Luke，也許我可以就關鍵文檔的共振問題交給您。

So we were expecting.

我們也期待著。

And again, a reminder that an ODAC approval of the use of MRD as an end point was only just last year or a recommendation of the use of MRD's endpoint.

再次提醒，ODAC 去年才批准使用 MRD 作為終點，或建議使用 MRD 的終點。

We started the studies Emma mentioned in December, we're expecting the first readout on MRD data in '27.

我們在 12 月開始了 Emma 提到的研究，預計在 27 年首次讀取 MRD 資料。

What needs to occur over the intervening period and others will be driving this based on their own first-line studies is a relationship between an understanding of MRD and a more established regulatory endpoint like.

在此期間需要發生的事情以及其他人將根據他們自己的一線研究推動這一點是對 MRD 的理解與更成熟的監管終點之間的關係。

What we know from our own analysis in DREAMM-7, DREAMM-8 and indeed, other first-line service on BLENREP when we look at the characteristic on details of the readouts.

當我們查看讀數細節的特徵時，我們從 DREAMM-7、DREAMM-8 以及 BLENREP 上的其他第一線服務的分析中了解到。

And we see a similarly improved outcome for BLENREP relative to competitive assets.

我們發現，與競爭資產相比，BLENREP 的結果也有類似的改善。

But Luke, you might want to comment on?

但是盧克，你可能想評論一下？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, thanks, Justin.

我的意思是，謝謝，賈斯汀。

And just to build on Tony's point, I mean the market research we get is exactly what the FDA is signaling, which is is a practical response to very long durations and clinical trial feasibility in first line.

為了進一步闡述托尼的觀點，我的意思是，我們得到的市場研究正是 FDA 所傳遞的信號，這是對一線非常長的持續時間和臨床試驗可行性的實際回應。

What it is not is a replacement for survival in second line.

它並不能取代第二線的生存。

And I think that's absolutely critical, and we see that.

我認為這絕對至關重要，我們也看到了這一點。

So -- and as we've covered earlier, we've got very strong data in second line and look forward to talking more about it over the year.

所以 — — 正如我們之前所報道的，我們在第二行獲得了非常強勁的數據，並期待在今年對此進行更多討論。

Graham Parry, Bank of America.

美國銀行的格雷厄姆·帕里。

So first question is just on the guide mix for 2025.

所以第一個問題是關於 2025 年的指導組合。

So relative to consensus, it looks like the guide is a little bit worse than consensus is looking on vaccines, but Gen Med is better and stable.

因此，相對於共識，看起來指南比疫苗方面的共識要差一點，但 Gen Med 更好、更穩定。

I think most were looking for a decline there.

我認為大多數人都預期那裡會出現衰退。

So could you give us some little bit more color behind the outlook on Gen Med, especially because I think there was some rebate adjustment benefits to Trelegy in 2Q last year.

那麼，您能否向我們詳細介紹 Gen Med 的前景，特別是因為我認為去年第二季 Trelegy 獲得了一些回扣調整優惠。

So you're actually looking for underlying growth.

因此你實際上是在尋求潛在的成長。

So what gives the confidence in that holding flat in the year and maybe the durability of that beyond 2025.

那麼，如何讓我們有信心這種趨勢在今年保持平穩，並且可能持續到 2025 年後？

And then secondly, on the buyback and free cash flow allocation, just perhaps give us a little bit of a sense of where you see free cash flow in 2025.

其次，關於回購和自由現金流分配，您能給我們稍微介紹一下 2025 年的自由現金流嗎？

If you're generating around GBP3 billion in '24, you're moving to a GBP2 billion share buyback and you -- but you highlighted low leverage.

如果你在24年創造了約30億英鎊的收入，那麼你將進行20億英鎊的股票回購，但你強調了低槓桿率。

Are you now assuming you're going to increase leverage through the year as you see opportunistic -- to fund opportunistic BDL to make sure you're still funding the pipeline?

現在您是否假設您將在全年增加槓桿率，因為您看到了機會——為機會主義的 BDL 提供資金，以確保您仍在為管道提供資金？

Well, two brief questions.

好吧，兩個簡短的問題。

But Julie, so over to you.

但是朱莉，交給你了。

Thanks, Graham.

謝謝，格雷厄姆。

So in terms of the RAR adjustment we had last year in the second quarter, it was largely, there was -- there's a high level, obviously, Trelegy was performing extremely well, and that attracts high levels of RAR.

因此，就我們去年第二季進行的 RAR 調整而言，基本上是 - 顯然，Trelegy 的表現非常出色，這吸引了高水準的 RAR。

We had a true-up in the second quarter simply because when the claims were coming in, they were at a lower level than expected when the people were moving into the catastrophic coverage quicker, and that was causing that.

我們在第二季度出現了實際增長，僅僅是因為當索賠進來時，索賠水平低於預期，而人們更快地進入災難保險範圍，這就是導致這種情況的原因。

Obviously, we don't know, but it was a benefit in the second quarter of last year.

顯然，我們不知道，但這是在去年第二季帶來的收益。

In terms of the leverage point, obviously, we've ended the year really well.

從槓桿點來看，顯然我們已經很好地結束了這一年。

We've got leverage of 1.2x net debt to EBITDA.

我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 的槓桿率為 1.2 倍。

We'd expect to run the buyback, as we've mentioned, over a period of within 18 months.

正如我們所提到的，我們預計回購將在 18 個月內完成。

Obviously, the weighting will be more towards 2025.

顯然，權重將更集中在 2025 年。

So the leverage will move up during the course of the year.

因此槓桿率在今年內將會上升。

In terms of cash flow expectations, the '25, obviously, slightly below 2024.

就現金流預期而言，2025 年顯然略低於 2024 年。

We've got the Zantac settlement going through, which is expected in the second quarter.

我們正在推動 Zantac 的和解，預計將在第二季完成。

And then we will have an upside from obviously, operating profit growth AR likely and trade payables.

然後，我們顯然會從營業利潤成長（應收帳款）和貿易應付帳款中獲得好處。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Next question, please.

請回答下一個問題。

Ahh that's the last question.

啊，這是最後一個問題。

Yes.

是的。

So let's go with one final question from James Gordon.

讓我們來看看詹姆斯·戈登的最後一個問題。

Two quick ones, please.

請快速問兩個問題。

One was just capital allocation building on one of the earlier questions.

一個是基於先前的問題之一進行的資本配置。

So where is the ceiling in terms of how levered the company would now be?

那麼，目前公司的槓桿率上限在哪裡呢？

I think you'll now be about 1.6x, could you go much above that and so you could still do multibillion pipeline deals?

我認為現在您的數字大約是 1.6 倍，您能否遠遠超過這個數字，以便仍然可以進行數十億美元的管道交易？

Or is that optionality off the table really?

或者說這種選擇權確實不存在了？

That's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

And the second question is just coming (inaudible) mentioned.

第二個問題我們剛才（聽不清楚）提到過。

So I think we're going to get one of the Phase III end of this year and one early next year.

因此我認為我們將在今年年底和明年年初完成第三階段的研究。

But Merck (inaudible), which is also P2X3, that had maybe similar efficacy to Phase II and obviously we didn't come to market.

但默克公司（聽不清楚），也是 P2X3，可能具有與 II 期相似的功效，顯然我們還沒有進入市場。

So what is the latest thinking and what you actually need to show in camlipixant.

那麼，最新的想法是什麼以及您實際上需要在 camlipixant 中展示什麼。

And how confident are you sorting to be a blockbuster product GSK.

您對 GSK 的這款暢銷產品有多大信心？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, I'll come to Tony to answer on that and the two studies that we've got coming.

好吧，我會讓托尼來回答這個問題以及我們即將進行的兩項研究。

And Luke, you might want to add also a reminder on why we wanted to do this deal and what the patient opportunity is.

盧克，你可能還想補充我們為什麼要做這筆交易，以及病人的機會是什麼。

In terms of capital allocation and business development, I'm just going to repeat what we've said, which is our #1 priority is to invest in growth.

在資本配置和業務發展方面，我只想重複我們說過的話，那就是我們的首要任務是投資成長。

We do want to do more BD.

我們確實想做更多的 BD。

I'm really pleased with the discipline that has gone into the kind of business development that we've been doing, the bolt-ons in our core areas, some with that might be a risk but very high return and really nice tuck-ins, including the IDRx one that we just announced.

我對我們在業務開發中所採取的紀律性感到非常滿意，我們在核心領域的附加功能，有些可能有風險，但回報非常高，而且附加價值非常好，包括我們剛剛宣布的 IDRx。

You should expect, James, the kind of BD we've been doing at the kind of scale and pace and with the focus and with the discipline that we've been doing.

詹姆斯，你應該期待我們一直在以這種規模、這種速度、這種重點和這種紀律開展 BD。

Obviously, we want to underpin all of that capital allocation with a strong balance sheet.

顯然，我們希望透過強勁的資產負債表來支撐所有資本配置。

And Julie, I don't know if there's a sense as what you want to say on leverage, but...

朱莉，我不知道你對槓桿的看法是否正確，但...

Now I think in terms of the ceiling, you questioned about the ceiling.

現在，我認為就上限而言，您質疑的是上限。

Obviously, we want to retain the strong investment-grade rating.

顯然，我們希望保持強勁的投資級評級。

Clearly, rating agency is getting a period of leeway with regard to that.

顯然，評級機構在這方面正在獲得一段時間的迴旋餘地。

So we're not going to set a number because it's not a scientific number, but we're basically very comfortable with where the balance sheet is.

因此，我們不會設定一個數字，因為這不是科學的數字，但我們基本上對資產負債表的狀況非常滿意。

As Emma mentioned, very clear priorities about capital allocation.

正如艾瑪所提到的，資本配置的優先事項非常明確。

They haven't changed.

他們沒有改變。

It's just the robustness of the balance sheet that allows us to do the buyback complemented with what we're already doing in BD.

正是資產負債表的穩健性使我們能夠進行回購，並補充我們在 BD 已經做的事情。

And all supported by the strong momentum in the delivery of the business, which we're running to maintain.

所有這些都得益於業務交付的強勁勢頭，我們正在努力保持這一勢頭。

So.

所以。

And just quickly then, James, I think it's really important when you look at this area in P2X3, not just to think about efficacy, but in particular to think about therapeutic index, if you remember, camlipixant has a far improved therapeutic index, particularly with regards to taste disturbance.

那麼，詹姆斯，我認為，當你在研究 P2X3 中的這個領域時，非常重要的一點是，不僅要考慮功效，還要特別考慮治療指數，如果你還記得的話，camlipixant 的治療指數要高得多，特別是在味覺障礙方面。

We have less than 6.5% adverse events in our study so far, compare that was Gefapixant, which had a nearly 70% taste to turbine.

到目前為止，我們的研究中不良事件發生率不到 6.5％，而 Gefapixant 的不良事件發生率接近 70％。

So it makes it hard to run a study when you're unblinding your treatment group.

因此，當你揭開治療組的盲法時，進行研究會變得非常困難。

I think we have just to keep it sure a far superior asset on a clinical trial program, which has been designed to take account of the aspects of frequency of cough.

我認為我們必須確保它在臨床試驗計劃中擁有更優越的資產，而該計劃的設計目的是考慮到咳嗽頻率的各個方面。

And as I mentioned, we will not be unblinded functionally by the taste of Stevens and the way that Jeff (inaudible) was.

正如我所提到的那樣，我們不會因史蒂文斯的品味和傑夫（聽不清楚）的行事方式而受到蒙蔽。

Yes.

是的。

I mean just to build on Tony's point, I mean, the smooth Phase IIb, we saw around 34% cost reduction I think Tony's team is doing an excellent job in terms of execution of that study.

我的意思是，只是為了鞏固 Tony 的觀點，我的意思是，IIb 階段進展順利，我們看到成本降低了約 34%，我認為 Tony 的團隊在執行這項研究方面做得非常出色。

Merck's molecule was basically a priori validated the target that had floors in its selectivity and there were some challenges in study design around

默克公司的分子基本上是先驗驗證的，其選擇性有底線，在研究設計方面存在一些挑戰

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

These have all been incorporated into our program when we talk to pulmonologist as still express high enthusiasm.

當我們與肺科醫生交談時，這些都已納入我們的計劃，因為仍然表現出很高的熱情。

The numbers are quite big.

這個數字相當大。

If we model out to 2030, we expect around just under 3 million patients in the U.S. will have had chronic cost for more than a year. and actually over that number in Europe.

如果我們以 2030 年為模型，我們預計美國將有約 300 萬名患者的慢性病費用將超過一年。事實上歐洲的數量還超過了這個數字。

So we're talking large numbers of patients sitting in primary care and also respiratory physicians, offices and there are limited options for those people at this point.

因此，我們談論的是大量的病人坐在初級保健醫生和呼吸科醫生的辦公室裡，而目前這些人的選擇有限。

They're really high dissatisfaction with current standard of center options.

他們對目前中心選擇的標準非常不滿意。

So thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Again, after a strong '24, we really are looking forward to another year of profitable growth and pipeline progress, and we're really pleased to be upgrading together our 2031 outlook again, with prospects of 50% of our business by then more than 50% being in specialty medicines.

再次，在經歷了強勁的 24 年之後，我們真的期待又一年的盈利增長和產品線進展，我們也非常高興再次共同升級我們的 2031 年展望，預計到那時我們 50% 以上的業務將來自專科藥物。

And this continued performance and a stronger balance sheet are really underpinning our plans to continue to increase investment in the 14 key assets that we're focused in the pipeline, in BD and in the successful launches ahead, and of course, staying focused on improving our direct returns to shareholders.

這種持續的業績和更強勁的資產負債表確實支撐了我們的計劃，即繼續增加對我們重點關注的 14 項關鍵資產的投資，包括 BD 和未來成功發布的資產，當然，我們將繼續專注於提高對股東的直接回報。

With thanks to everyone.

感謝大家。

We look forward to catching up with you in coming days.

我們期待在未來的日子裡與您見面。