葛蘭素史克 (GSK) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. Welcome to today's call and webcast. The Q3 presentation was sent to our distribution list by e-mail, and you can also find it on gsk.com. Please turn to slide 2. This is the usual safe harbor statement. We will comment on our performance using constant exchange rates, or CER, unless stated otherwise. Please turn to slide 3. Today's call will last approximately 1 hour, with the presentation taking around 30 minutes and the remaining time for your questions.

大家好。歡迎參加今天的電話會議和網路廣播。第三季的簡報已透過電子郵件發送到我們的分發列表，您也可以在 gsk.com 上找到它。請翻到投影片 2。除非另有說明，我們將使用固定匯率 (CER) 來評估我們的業績。請翻到投影片 3。

Our speakers today are Emma Walmsley Luke Miels, Deborah Waterhouse and Julie Brown, with Tony Wood and David Redfern joining for Q&A.

今天我們的演講者是艾瑪·沃姆斯利·盧克·米爾斯、黛博拉·沃特豪斯和朱莉·布朗，托尼·伍德和大衛·雷德芬也參與問答。

Please ask only one to two questions so that everyone has a chance to participate.

請只提出一到兩個問題，以便每個人都有機會參與。

Turning to slide 4. I will now hand the call to Emma.

轉到幻燈片 4。

Welcome to everybody joining us today. Please turn to the next slide. I'm pleased to report that despite some challenges, this has been a positive quarter for GSK and we're delivering 9% sales growth and 19% profit growth year-to-date.

歡迎大家今天加入我們。請翻到下一張投影片。我很高興地向大家報告，儘管面臨一些挑戰，但這對 GSK 來說是一個積極的季度，今年迄今為止我們的銷售額增長了 9%，利潤增長了 19%。

This growth reflects the accelerating momentum we have in Specialty Medicines and the overall resilience we have built in our portfolio, which underpins continued high confidence in our outlook for 2026 and beyond.

這一增長反映了我們在專科藥品領域的加速勢頭以及我們在產品組合中建立的整體彈性，這支撐了我們對 2026 年及以後的前景持續充滿信心。

Importantly, we've made considerable progress in our pipeline this quarter. And with no admitted fault or failure, I'm delighted that we've also drawn a line under the vast majority of Zantac litigation, removing a clear perceived risk for the company and allowing us to focus on the future.

重要的是，本季我們在管道方面取得了相當大的進展。在沒有承認過錯或失敗的情況下，我很高興我們也在 Zantac 的絕大多數訴訟中劃清了界限，消除了公司明顯的風險，讓我們專注於未來。

Overall, excluding COVID, sales for the quarter grew 2%, 9% year-to-date, with Specialty Medicines up 19% and double digit growth reported in HIV, respiratory immunology and oncology.

整體而言，排除新冠疫情，本季銷售額年增 2%，年初至今成長 9%，其中特種藥物成長 19%，愛滋病毒、呼吸免疫學和腫瘤學領域報告出現兩位數成長。

We were particularly pleased to see the momentum now being established in our oncology business and I'm delighted that we filed Blenrep in Europe, Japan and the US in the quarter.

我們特別高興地看到我們的腫瘤業務正在形成勢頭，我很高興我們本季在歐洲、日本和美國提交了 Blenrep 申請。

We also continue to see strong progress in the transition of our HIV portfolio to long acting medicines, now 18% of HIV sales and where we plan to continue to lead the way.

我們也繼續看到我們的愛滋病毒產品組合向長效藥物的轉變取得了巨大進展，目前佔愛滋病毒銷售額的 18%，我們計劃繼續保持領先地位。

General Medicines also performed strongly this quarter with growth up 7%, led by another outstanding performance from Trelegy.

在 Trelegy 的另一個出色表現的帶動下，普通藥品本季也表現強勁，成長了 7%。

Total Vaccines sales were down due to lower sales of Arexvy and Shingrix.

由於 Arexvy 和 Shingrix 銷量下降，疫苗總銷量下降。

Recent guideline changes and prioritization of COVID vaccines in the US were key factors.

美國最近的指南變化和新冠疫苗的優先順序是關鍵因素。

But market shares for both these vaccines remain very strong.

但這兩種疫苗的市佔率仍然非常強勁。

Although both vaccines face market circumstances that will limit their growth potential in the near term, over the medium and longer term, the fundamental benefits these two best-in-class vaccines offer to protect people from disease and to take pressure off health care systems remain.

儘管這兩種疫苗面臨的市場環境將在短期內限制其成長潛力，但從中長期來看，這兩種一流的疫苗在保護人們免受疾病侵害和減輕醫療保健系統壓力方面所提供的基本益處仍然存在。

And with appropriate recommendations from public health authorities, we fully expect them and our vaccines pipeline to deliver significant future sales growth for GSK.

在公共衛生當局的適當建議下，我們完全期望它們和我們的疫苗產品線將為葛蘭素史克帶來顯著的未來銷售成長。

Back to this quarter, we continue to deliver strong operating performance and leverage.

回到本季度，我們繼續提供強勁的經營業績和槓桿率。

Excluding COVID, core operating profit and core EPS growth were both up 5%, reflecting the positive margin benefit of Specialty Medicines and sustained focus on cost management.

排除新冠疫情，核心營業利潤和核心每股收益成長均成長 5%，反映了特殊藥品的正面利潤效益和對成本管理的持續關注。

Year-to-date, operating profit was up 19%, supporting double digit profit growth for the year.

年初至今，營業利潤成長了 19%，支撐了全年兩位數的利潤成長。

Lastly, we're reporting further improvements in cash flow with cash generated from operations of GBP5.3 billion year-to-date.

最後，我們報告現金流進一步改善，今年迄今營運產生的現金達到 53 億英鎊。

This is providing increased funds for pipeline investment and returns to shareholders.

這為管道投資和股東回報提供了更多資金。

Our dividend for the quarter is 15p, up 7%.

我們本季的股息為 15 便士，成長 7%。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Pipeline progress was strongly evident in the quarter with a series of findings and data readouts supporting future product momentum.

本季的管道進展非常明顯，一系列調查結果和數據讀數支持了未來產品的發展勢頭。

So far this year, we've had 11 positive Phase III readouts, and we're currently planning launches for five major new product approval opportunities next year with Blenrep, depemokimab, Nucala for COPD, gepotidacin and our new meningitis vaccine, MenABCWY.

今年到目前為止，我們已經獲得了11 個積極的III 期結果，目前我們正計劃明年推出5 個主要新產品批准機會，包括Blenrep、depemokimab、用於COPD 的Nucala、gepotidacin 和我們的新腦膜炎疫苗MenABCWY。

In the quarter, pivotal data from our ultra long acting biologic, depemokimab in severe asthma was front and center at the European Respiratory Society Congress and simultaneously published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

本季度，我們的超長效生物製劑 depemokimab 治療嚴重氣喘的關鍵數據成為歐洲呼吸學會大會的焦點，並同時發表在《新英格蘭醫學雜誌》上。

Additionally, we announced positive results from our Phase III trial of Nucala in COPD.

此外，我們也宣布了 Nucala 治療慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 的 III 期試驗的積極結果。

In oncology, we were delighted that Jemperli received an expanded approval by the FDA for all adult patients with primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer.

在腫瘤學領域，我們很高興 Jemperli 獲得 FDA 的擴大批准，用於治療所有患有原發性晚期或復發性子宮內膜癌的成年患者。

And Blenrep is now filed with multiple regulators, including the US.

Blenrep 現已向包括美國在內的多個監管機構備案。

I was also delighted to see the positive headline data from our mRNA influenza vaccine candidate, demonstrating positive A and B strain immune responses relative to standard of care, enabling us to progress to Phase III clinical trials next year and build another key vaccine platform.

我還很高興看到我們的mRNA 候選流感疫苗的積極標題數據，證明了相對於護理標準的積極A 型和B 型毒株免疫反應，使我們能夠在明年進入III 期臨床試驗並建立另一個關鍵疫苗平台。

And we received a number of breakthrough regulatory designations, recognizing the importance of our innovation for unmet medical needs.

我們獲得了許多突破性的監管指定，並認識到我們的創新對於未滿足的醫療需求的重要性。

This included bepirovirsen, our antisense oligonucleotide for chronic hepatitis B and B7-H3, our antibody drug conjugate for extensive stage small cell lung cancer.

其中包括貝匹羅韋森（我們用於治療慢性B型肝炎的反義寡核苷酸）和 B7-H3（我們用於治療廣泛期小細胞肺癌的抗體藥物偶聯物）。

B7-H3 is one of two promising ADCs we have in clinical development and part of the next wave of portfolio now emerging in R&D, which Tony is going to update you on at our next Meet the Management event in December.

B7-H3 是我們在臨床開發中擁有的兩種有前途的ADC 之一，也是目前研發中出現的下一波產品組合的一部分，Tony 將在12 月的下一次與管理層會面活動中向您介紹最新情況。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Building trust by delivering sustainable health impact remains a clear priority for all of us at GSK.

透過提供可持續的健康影響來建立信任仍然是葛蘭素史克所有人的首要任務。

We continue to make progress across our six key areas, and I'd particularly like to recognize our HIV business for its commitment to make at least 2 million doses of cabotegravir long acting for prevention available in low and middle income countries during '25 and '26.

我們繼續在六個關鍵領域取得進展，我特別想表彰我們的愛滋病毒業務，因為我們承諾在「25 世紀」和「25 世紀」期間為低收入和中等收入國家提供至少200 萬劑卡博特韋長效預防劑。

This further commitment builds on long standing action to deliver sustainable access and triple supply compared to 2024.

這項進一步的承諾建立在長期行動的基礎上，以實現可持續的准入和與 2024 年相比供應量增加三倍。

Please turn to the next slide.

請翻到下一張投影片。

GSK is delivering consistent financial performance.

葛蘭素史克正在提供穩定的財務表現。

Looking to the end of this year and beyond, we're even more confident that the progress we're making in portfolio development and in R&D support the delivery of our growth outlook.

展望今年年底及以後，我們更有信心，我們在產品組合開發和研發方面的進展將支持我們實現成長前景。

For 2024, we continue to anticipate sales growth of 7% to 9%, with double digit profit growth.

2024 年，我們繼續預期銷售額將成長 7% 至 9%，利潤成長兩位數。

We also remain very confident in our outlooks for '26 and 2031, and our investment choices to drive competitive growth in Specialty and Vaccines.

我們對 26 年和 2031 年的前景以及推動特種產品和疫苗競爭性成長的投資選擇仍然充滿信心。

It's also worth remembering that these outlooks do not yet include Blenrep or progress in our early-stage pipeline and we'll continue to pursue bolt on business development to further enhance our pipeline and our technology platforms with a focus on our core therapeutic areas.

另外值得記住的是，這些展望尚未包括 Blenrep 或我們早期管道的進展，我們將繼續尋求業務發展，以進一步增強我們的管道和技術平台，並專注於我們的核心治療領域。

And so with that, I'll now hand over to Luke and Deborah to talk you through our commercial performance.

因此，我現在將請盧克和黛博拉向您介紹我們的商業表演。

Thanks, Emma.

謝謝，艾瑪。

Please turn to the next slide.

請翻到下一張投影片。

Third quarter sales were up 2% to GBP8 billion, and year-to-date sales were up 9%.

第三季銷售額成長 2%，達到 80 億英鎊，年初至今銷售額成長 9%。

As you can see from the chart here, Q3 sales growth reflected a tough comparison with strong growth from Specialty and Gen Meds, offsetting the lower sales of Vaccines.

從圖表中可以看出，第三季的銷售成長與特種藥物和通用藥物的強勁成長形成了鮮明對比，抵消了疫苗銷售額的下降。

Specialty Medicines, the largest part of our business grew 19%, reflecting strong performance of new products and the investment we've put into recent launches, particularly in oncology and HIV.

特種藥品是我們業務的最大組成部分，成長了 19%，反映出新產品的強勁表現以及我們對最近推出的產品的投資，特別是在腫瘤學和愛滋病毒領域。

We expect this momentum to continue with growth from these assets and several material launch opportunities in respiratory, oncology and other disease areas coming later next year.

我們預計，隨著這些資產的增長以及明年晚些時候呼吸、腫瘤和其他疾病領域的一些材料發布機會，這一勢頭將持續下去。

General Medicines, pleased to say sales were up 7% driven by strong performance of respiratory.

General Medicines 很高興地表示，由於呼吸系統產品的強勁表現，銷售額成長了 7%。

And as already been mentioned, lower demand for Shingrix and Arexvy this quarter led to an overall sales decline of 15% for Vaccines.

如同已經提到的，本季 Shingrix 和 Arexvy 需求下降導致疫苗整體銷售額下降 15%。

And I'll cover this in more detail in a minute.

稍後我將更詳細地介紹這一點。

All of these dynamics were broadly reflected in the performance of our regions, with good growth internationally and the US unsurprisingly was more impacted by the lower vaccine demand we saw this quarter.

所有這些動態都廣泛反映在我們各地區的表現中，國際上成長良好，毫不奇怪，美國受到本季疫苗需求下降的影響更大。

Please turn to slide 11 to look at Vaccines in more detail.

請翻至投影片 11 以更詳細地了解疫苗。

So I'll focus the commentary on Arexvy and Shingrix.

所以我將重點放在 Arexvy 和 Shingrix。

Arexvy performance was impacted by three factors.

Arexvy 的效能受到三個因素的影響。

Firstly, by changes in ACIP guidelines that restricted the recommended populations of older adults receiving RSV vaccinations.

首先，ACIP 指南的變化限制了接受 RSV 疫苗接種的老年人的建議族群。

Secondly, by prioritization of COVID vaccinations in the US.

其次，優先考慮美國的新冠疫苗接種。

And thirdly, by a lower seasonal rate of RSV infections.

第三，RSV 感染的季節性發生率較低。

In addition, it was a tough comparator given two-third of sales in Q3 last year were related to stocking.

此外，考慮到去年第三季三分之二的銷售額與庫存有關，這是一個艱難的比較。

Despite these dynamics, we retained our strong leadership market share.

儘管存在這些動態，我們仍然保持了強勁的市佔率領導地位。

Now we're still in the foothills of this vaccines availability and usage.

現在，我們仍處於這種疫苗的可用性和使用的初級階段。

In the US, we continue to make data available to ACIP and to support them as they move towards making longer term recommendations on the use of Arexvy vaccines, including requirements for revaccination and cohort expansion.

在美國，我們繼續向 ACIP 提供數據並支持他們就 Arexvy 疫苗的使用提出長期建議，包括重新接種疫苗和隊列擴展的要求。

Beyond the US, Arexvy has now launched in 35 markets, 16 with national recommendations and 6 with national reimbursement programs.

除美國之外，Arexvy 現已在 35 個市場推出，其中 16 個市場有國家推薦，6 個市場有國家報銷計畫。

More rollouts across Europe and international will come in 2025.

2025 年將在歐洲和國際上進行更多推廣。

For Shingrix, year-to-date growth was driven outside the US, now 58% of the business, and the average immunization rate across the top 10 markets, excluding the US is still around 6%.

對於 Shingrix 來說，今年迄今的成長是由美國以外地區推動的，目前佔其業務的 58%，除美國外的前 10 個市場的平均免疫率仍約為 6%。

So there's still a large opportunity here.

所以這裡仍然有很大的機會。

Growth outside the US was 9% this quarter, and US penetration was 39% at the end of the second quarter.

本季美國以外地區的成長率為 9%，第二季末美國滲透率為 39%。

Adding to US penetration remains a key focus, but the pace is slowing from around 6 to 7 points per year to around 3 to 5 points per year, making incremental growth more challenging.

提高美國滲透率仍然是關鍵焦點，但成長速度正在從每年約 6 至 7 個百分點放緩至每年 3 至 5 個百分點，使得增量成長更具挑戰性。

And if you take a look, the visual on this slide also shows how US sales moderate as the immunization rate slows.

如果你看一下，這張投影片上的視覺效果也顯示了隨著免疫接種率放緩，美國的銷售情況如何放緩。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

So looking ahead on vaccines.

所以展望疫苗。

This year, we now expect vaccine sales to decline low to single digits.

今年，我們預計疫苗銷量將下降至個位數。

And in 2025, we expect limited growth, reflecting the assumption that there will be no Arexvy revaccination or expansion of AH cohorts next year.

到 2025 年，我們預計成長有限，反映出明年不會再接種 Arexvy 或擴大 AH 隊列的假設。

Beyond 2025 for Arexvy, we expect further successful rollout and that public health recommendations for cohort expansion and revaccination will be confirmed alongside international penetration given the patient need and the protection this vaccine can offer against RSV.

2025 年之後，我們預計 Arexvy 將進一步成功推出，考慮到患者的需求以及該疫苗可以提供的針對 RSV 的保護，關於隊列擴展和重新接種的公共衛生建議將隨著國際滲透率得到確認。

And so on this basis, we continue to expect Arexvy to make a significant contribution to future sales, and we continue to believe it can achieve peak sales of more than GBP3 billion.

因此在此基礎上，我們繼續預計Arexvy將對未來的銷售做出重大貢獻，並且我們仍然相信其能夠實現超過30億英鎊的高峰銷售。

For Shingrix, our ambition remains to achieve more than GBP4 billion in sales.

對 Shingrix 來說，我們的目標仍然是實現超過 40 億英鎊的銷售額。

And finally, beyond Arexvy and Shingrix, we also have material growth opportunities with mRNA and our MAPS technology, where we've decided to prioritize a pneumococcal 30 plus valent asset in adults to pursue the broadest potential coverage.

最後，除了 Arexvy 和 Shingrix 之外，我們還透過 mRNA 和 MAPS 技術獲得了實質成長機會，我們決定優先考慮成人肺炎球菌 30 價以上資產，以追求最廣泛的潛在覆蓋範圍。

And further build out of our meningitis portfolio, the next step of which will be the launch of MenABCWY vaccine in 2025.

並進一步建立我們的腦膜炎產品組合，下一步將是在 2025 年推出 MenABCWY 疫苗。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Specialty Meds is an increasingly important driver of our growth for GSK, reflecting the combination of successful R&D and BD investment over the recent years.

特種藥物是葛蘭素史克成長的一個日益重要的驅動力，反映了近年來成功的研發和業務拓展投資的結合。

And it's delivered another quarter of excellent growth, including HIV, which Deborah will cover shortly.

它還實現了另一個季度的出色增長，其中包括愛滋病毒，黛博拉很快就會報導這一點。

Respiratory and immunology products were up 14% and Nucala IL-5 biologic treatment was up 12%.

呼吸和免疫產品增加了 14%，Nucala IL-5 生物療法增加了 12%。

In September, we announced positive headline results from (inaudible), a Phase III trial evaluating Nucala in adults with COPD, a disease which affects more than 300 million people.

9 月，我們宣布了（聽不清楚）一項III 期試驗的積極結果，該試驗評估了Nucala 對患有慢性阻塞性肺病（COPD）的成人患者的療效，這種疾病影響了超過3 億人。

And the full results will be presented at a scientific congress next year.

完整的結果將在明年的科學大會上公佈。

We also presented swift Phase III data for our ultra long-acting IL-5 treatment depemokimab in the quarter, and depemokimab demonstrated a 54% reduction in exacerbations versus placebo plus standard of care for patients with severe asthma after only two injections in a 12-month period.

我們還在本季度提供了我們的超長效IL-5 治療depemokimab 的快速III 期數據，與安慰劑加標準護理相比，depemokimab 在12-12 個月的治療中僅注射兩次後，重度哮喘患者的病情加重減少了54%。

This is a major benefit for provider and patients.

這對提供者和患者來說都是一個重大好處。

In addition, positive data from the Phase III ANCHOR study evaluating depemokimab in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps was also announced this month.

此外，本月也公佈了評估 depemokimab 對患有鼻息肉的慢性鼻竇炎患者的 III 期 ANCHOR 研究的積極數據。

Alongside swift, these data will support expected filing before the end of the year with a view to a dual indication launch in 2025.

除了 swift 之外，這些數據還將支援預計在今年年底前提交的申請，以期在 2025 年推出雙適應症。

And to remind you, combined, we expect our IL-5 portfolio to deliver more than GBP4 billion in peak tier sales.

並提醒您，我們預計 IL-5 產品組合的峰值銷售額將超過 40 億英鎊。

Benlysta was up 16% in the quarter with strong demand and volume growth in all regions.

Benlysta 本季成長了 16%，所有地區的需求和銷售量均強勁成長。

And oncology almost doubled, which I'll cover in more detail on the next slide.

腫瘤學幾乎翻了一番，我將在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地介紹這一點。

We expect momentum in this part of our portfolio to continue, especially given the launch opportunities we have in front of us.

我們預計這部分投資組合的動能將持續下去，特別是考慮到我們面前的發布機會。

And for this year, we're upgrading sales expectations for Specialty Medicines to high-teens percentage growth.

今年，我們將特種藥品的銷售預期上調至兩位數的高百分比成長。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Focusing on oncology, sales almost doubled in the quarter, and we've delivered more than GBP billion in turnover so far this year.

專注於腫瘤學，本季銷售額幾乎翻了一番，今年迄今我們的營業額已超過 10 億英鎊。

Our focus on hematology and gynecologic cancers is delivering strong progress evidenced by the success of new product launches in these areas.

我們對血液學和婦科癌症的關注正在取得強勁進展，這些領域新產品發布的成功證明了這一點。

Ojjaara, which is launched in the US, Europe and very recently in Japan has seen quick adoption with high quarter-on-quarter growth.

Ojjaara 在美國、歐洲推出，最近又在日本推出，並迅速採用，季度環比成長率很高。

And in the US, it's maintaining its fast launch uptake and there's still a large opportunity remaining in first line.

在美國，它保持著快速的推出勢頭，一線市場仍然存在著很大的機會。

Jemperli sales also continued to grow strongly.

Jemperli 的銷售額也持續強勁成長。

And in August, the US FDA approved Jemperli plus chemotherapy for the treatment of adult patients with primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer.

8 月，美國 FDA 核准 Jemperli 合併化療用於治療原發性晚期或復發性子宮內膜癌成年患者。

This approval broadens the previous indication to include the 70% to 75% of patients diagnosed with endometrial cancer who have mismatch repair deficient stable microsatellite stable tumors.

這項批准擴大了先前的適應症，將 70% 至 75% 的子宮內膜癌患者納入其中，這些患者患有錯配修復缺陷的穩定微衛星穩定腫瘤。

And treatment options have been limited for this cohort so it's important Jemperli is now available to these patients.

該族群的治療選擇有限，因此現在為這些患者提供 Jemperli 非常重要。

Zejula's growth continued in Q3, driven by US pricing effects and higher demand outside the US.

在美國定價效應和美國以外需求增加的推動下，Zejula 在第三季持續成長。

And looking ahead, we have a significant opportunity to strengthen our oncology business with the launch of Blenrep in half year, 2025.

展望未來，隨著 Blenrep 於 2025 年半年推出，我們有一個加強腫瘤業務的重大機會。

We filed for approval in the US, EMA and Japan in the quarter.

我們於本季在美國、歐洲藥品管理局和日本提交了批准申請。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

General Medicines grew 7% in Q3, primarily driven by Trelegy.

在 Trelegy 的推動下，普通藥品第三季成長了 7%。

And Trelegy sales increased 16% to GBP600 million with strong growth across all regions, reflecting patient demand, class growth and increased market share in the overall asthma and COPD market.

Trelegy 銷售額成長 16%，達到 6 億英鎊，所有地區均強勁成長，反映了患者需求、類別成長以及整個氣喘和慢性阻塞性肺病市場的市場份額增加。

Use of authorized generic versions of (inaudible) are continuing to fully offset the removal of the AMCAP on Medicaid drug prices in the US.

使用授權仿製藥（聽不清楚）將繼續完全抵銷美國醫療補助藥品價格 AMCAP 的取消。

And given our stronger performance this year, we now expect a mid single digit percent sales growth for General Medicines this year.

鑑於我們今年的強勁表現，我們現在預計今年普通藥品的銷售額將實現中等個位數的成長。

Looking forward, for the total business, the US is expected to face pressure from the implementation of the US Inflation Reduction Act Legislation in 2025.

展望整個業務，美國預計將面臨2025年美國通膨削減法案立法實施的壓力。

And we expect the overall impact of this range to be around GBP400 million to GBP500 million, including HIV.

我們預計該範圍的整體影響約為 4 億至 5 億英鎊，其中包括愛滋病毒。

I'll now hand over to Deborah.

現在我將把事情交給黛博拉。

Thank you, Luke.

謝謝你，盧克。

Now turning to HIV.

現在轉向愛滋病毒。

We continue to deliver strong performance and sustained double digit growth with Q3 sales up 12%.

我們持續保持強勁的業績並持續兩位數成長，第三季銷售額成長 12%。

This growth was driven by strong patient demand as well as favorable pricing dynamics.

這一增長是由強勁的患者需求以及有利的定價動態所推動的。

For 2025, we do not expect the favorable pricing dynamics to continue in part due to the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act.

到 2025 年，我們預計有利的定價動態不會持續，部分原因是《通膨削減法案》的出台。

However, we are confident that the underlying demand for our medicines will remain strong.

然而，我們相信對我們藥品的潛在需求將保持強勁。

As leaders in oral two drug regimens and long-acting injectables, it is positive to see this continued momentum, delivering 2 percentage points of market share gain versus the previous year.

作為口服兩種藥物療法和長效注射劑的領導者，看到這種持續的勢頭是積極的，與前一年相比，市場份額增加了 2 個百分點。

Dovato grew 23% for the quarter.

Dovato 本季成長了 23%。

This positive growth was supported by results announced in July from the (inaudible) study, a large head-to-head randomized clinical trial of Dovato compared against the three drug regimen, Biktarvy.

這種積極的成長得到了 7 月宣布的（聽不清楚）研究結果的支持，該研究是 Dovato 與三種藥物方案 Biktarvy 進行比較的大型頭對頭隨機臨床試驗。

This study demonstrates Dovato's noninferior efficacy and significantly less weight gain versus Biktarvy.

這項研究表明，與 Biktarvy 相比，Dovato 的功效並不遜色，且體重增加顯著減少。

This is important because we know people with HIV are concerned about taking more medicines as they age as well as the long-term risk of metabolic diseases that can come with weight gain.

這很重要，因為我們知道愛滋病毒感染者擔心隨著年齡的增長而服用更多藥物，以及體重增加可能帶來的代謝疾病的長期風險。

The performance of our long acting portfolio also remains positive, delivering GBP314 million of sales and representing more than 50% of total growth for the quarter and year-to-date.

我們的長效產品組合的業績也依然樂觀，實現了 3.14 億英鎊的銷售額，佔本季和年初至今總成長的 50% 以上。

Cabenuva grew 40%, driven by patient preference and proven and durable efficacy.

在患者偏好和經過驗證的持久療效的推動下，Cabenuva 增加了 40%。

The medicine now holds a market share of 5% or more in the majority of our key markets, demonstrating sustained quarter-on-quarter growth.

該藥物目前在我們大多數主要市場中佔有 5% 或以上的市場份額，顯示出持續的季度環比增長。

Apretude, the first and only approved long-acting option for HIV prevention delivered 95% growth in the quarter.

Apreude 是第一個也是唯一獲得批准的愛滋病毒預防長效選擇，本季實現了 95% 的成長。

At the IDV Conference earlier this month, we shared real-world evidence reinforcing the more than 99% effectiveness for Apretude as well as an implementation study highlighting patient reported results with the reduction in stigma and anxiety.

在本月稍早的 IDV 會議上，我們分享了現實世界的證據，證實了 Apretude 的有效性超過 99%，並且實施研究強調了患者報告的減少恥辱和焦慮的結果。

Looking further ahead, we are strongly focused on developing our ultra-long-acting pipeline.

展望未來，我們將大力致力於開發我們的超長效產品線。

This includes development of new regimens, performantly dosing with ambitions to extend to six monthly dosing.

這包括開發新的治療方案、高效給藥，並希望將給藥期限延長至六個月。

The potential for the long-acting market remains significant.

長效市場的潛力仍然巨大。

The total HIV market today for treatment and (inaudible) together is worth more than GBP22 billion, with treatment accounting for around 90% of this, and we believe treatment will continue to be the larger market going forward.

目前治療和（聽不清楚）的愛滋病毒市場總價值超過 220 億英鎊，其中治療約佔 90%，我們相信治療將繼續成為未來更大的市場。

We are the leaders in long-acting innovation and are confident in our innovative pipeline for the future as well as the competitive profile of our medicines today, offering strong safety, efficacy and overall tolerability for people living with HIV and those who could benefit from

我們是長效創新領域的領導者，對我們未來的創新產品線以及當今藥物的競爭優勢充滿信心，為愛滋病毒感染者和那些可以從中受益的人提供強大的安全性、有效性和整體耐受性。

(inaudible) .

（聽不清楚）。

With that, I will hand to Julie.

接下來，我將交給朱莉。

Thank you, Deborah, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝黛博拉，大家早安。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Building on the comments made by Luke and Deborah, this slide shows Specialty Medicines is an increasingly important growth driver for the Group, having delivered more than 70% of year-to-date growth.

根據 Luke 和 Deborah 的評論，這張投影片顯示特種藥品是該集團日益重要的成長動力，今年迄今的成長已佔 70% 以上。

This is being supported by building scale and momentum in our respiratory, immunology and oncology businesses.

我們的呼吸、免疫學和腫瘤學業務的規模和動力不斷增強，為這一點提供了支持。

And although vaccine growth has been limited this year, as Luke outlined, longer term, we are very confident in this opportunity.

儘管正如盧克所概述的那樣，今年疫苗的增長受到限制，但從長遠來看，我們對這個機會非常有信心。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Moving to the income statement for the third quarter with growth rates stated at CER.

轉到第三季損益表，成長率以固定匯率表示。

Sales increased 2%, reflecting continued strong momentum, especially from Specialty Medicines, but also General Medicines more than offsetting the decline in Vaccines.

銷售額成長 2%，反映出持續強勁的勢頭，尤其是特種藥品，而且普通藥品也抵消了疫苗銷售額的下降。

Core operating profit grew 5% despite the significant decrease in Gardasil royalties.

儘管 Gardasil 特許權使用費大幅下降，但核心營業利潤仍成長 5%。

Gross margin benefited from the outperformance of high margin Specialty Medicines, pricing benefits and the annualization of prior year inventory provisions.

毛利率受益於高利潤特種藥品的優異表現、定價優勢以及上一年庫存撥備的年度化。

The decline in SG&A spend resulted from our disciplined approach to investment, the annualization of high prior year launch investments and the phasing of spend across half two.

SG&A 支出的下降是由於我們嚴格的投資方式、上一年啟動投資的年化率以及下半年支出的分階段所造成的。

The Gardasil royalty loss impacted profit growth by minus 8% this quarter, meaning underlying operating profit was up 13%, demonstrating considerable productivity improvements in Q3.

Gardasil 特許權使用費損失對本季度利潤增長產生了負 8% 的影響，這意味著基本營業利潤增長了 13%，顯示出第三季度生產力的顯著提高。

Core EPS grew 5%, excluding COVID, in line with the operating profit growth.

剔除新冠疫情後，核心每股收益成長 5%，與營業利潤成長一致。

And turning to the total results.

並轉向總結果。

Operating profit decreased materially year-on-year from GBP1.9 billion last year to GBP0.2 billion this year.

營業利潤較去年大幅下降，從去年的19億英鎊降至今年的2億英鎊。

The reduction predominantly reflected a GBP1.8 billion charge relating to the resolution of the Zantac litigation.

這一減少主要反映了與解決 Zantac 訴訟相關的 18 億英鎊費用。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Moving to our margin bridge with commentary including COVID.

轉向我們的保證金橋，附上包括新冠病毒在內的評論。

Our Q3 core operating margin increased 100 basis points year-on-year at CER to 35%.

我們第三季的核心營業利潤率（以固定匯率計算）年增 100 個基點，達到 35%。

Despite a 180 basis point headwind from the loss of royalties as we continue to deliver on our financial commitments and drive leverage within the business.

儘管特許權使用費損失帶來了 180 個基點的阻力，但我們仍繼續履行財務承諾並提高業務槓桿率。

The strong underlying accretion was supported by three factors.

強勁的潛在成長受到三個因素的支持。

First, the outperformance of Specialty Medicines where the portfolio has driven a positive mix impact in gross margin and considerable operating leverage resulting from the strong sales growth.

首先，特種藥品的優異表現，該產品組合對毛利率產生了積極的綜合影響，銷售強勁增長帶來了可觀的營運槓桿。

Secondly, the annualization of prior year inventory provisions and cost of goods and launch investments within SG&A.

其次，將上一年庫存準備金和商品成本進行年度化，並在SG&A 內啟動投資。

And third, the phasing of SG&A spending with a greater weighting expected towards Q4 this year.

第三，預計今年第四季的SG&A 支出將分階段獲得更大的權重。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Year-to-date, cash generated from operations was GBP5.3 billion, representing an improvement of GBP0.9 billion compared with last year.

年初至今，營運產生的現金為 53 億英鎊，比去年增加 9 億英鎊。

And this was primarily driven by improved operating profits and a working capital benefit compared with last year benefiting from higher Arexvy collections earlier in the year.

與去年相比，這主要是由於營業利潤和營運資本效益的提高，受益於今年稍早較高的 Arexvy 收藏。

Although CGFO was lower due to returns and rebates, partly offset by lower pension contributions.

儘管 CGFO 由於回報和回扣而較低，但部分被退休金繳款減少所抵消。

Free cash flow was GBP1.9 billion, improving compared with the GBP1.3 billion last year with improved CGFO partly offset by higher tax and higher business development, including acquiring full rights to flu and COVID mRNA from CureVac.

自由現金流為 19 億英鎊，較去年的 13 億英鎊有所改善，CGFO 的改善部分被更高的稅收和更高的業務發展所抵消，包括從 CureVac 獲得流感和新冠病毒 mRNA 的全部權利。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Slide 22 shows our net debt position since the 31 of December and how we've actively deployed capital in the business in line with our framework.

投影片 22 顯示了自 12 月 31 日以來我們的淨債務狀況，以及我們如何根據我們的框架積極部署業務資本。

Net debt in September was GBP13 billion. a reduction of GBP2 billion compared with December '23, given the strong free cash generation and the Haleon monetization.

9 月份淨債務為 130 億英鎊。鑑於強勁的自由現金生成和 Haleon 貨幣化，與 2023 年 12 月相比減少了 20 億英鎊。

Through the nine months, we have deployed capital to strengthen the pipeline and platforms through business development.

在這九個月裡，我們部署了資金，透過業務發展來加強管道和平台。

And as recently announced, we have expedited retiring the risk for Zantac.

正如最近宣布的那樣，我們已加快消除 Zantac 的風險。

We expect this to result in a GBP0.8 billion cash outflow in Q4 '24 with the remaining GBP1 billion being paid in the first half of 2025 and included in CGFO.

我們預計這將導致 24 年第 4 季出現 8 億英鎊現金流出，其餘 10 億英鎊將在 2025 年上半年支付併計入 CGFO。

There is no change to our capital allocation priorities.

我們的資本配置優先事項沒有改變。

We have a strong balance sheet, which provides optionality to accelerate further growth organically and through business development as we look to deploy funds to enhance growth and deliver attractive shareholder returns.

我們擁有強大的資產負債表，為我們尋求部署資金以促進成長並提供有吸引力的股東回報時，透過業務發展加速進一步有機成長提供了選擇。

And with that, I will now turn to our full year expectations.

說到這裡，我現在將談談我們的全年預期。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

For full year 2024, we confirm our guidance range of 7% to 9% sales growth and 11% to 13% profit growth and expect to land broadly around the middle of these ranges, notwithstanding the loss of Gardasil royalties, which we expect to reduce profit growth by 6 percentage points this year.

對於2024 年全年，我們確認銷售成長7% 至9% 和利潤成長11% 至13% 的指導範圍，並預計將大致落在這些範圍的中間，儘管加德西特許權使用費的損失，我們預計減少今年利潤成長6個百分點。

Core earnings per share is expected to grow at 10% to 12%, slightly below operating profit due to an increase in the tax rate under the OECD legislation.

由於 OECD 立法提高了稅率，預計每股核心收益將成長 10% 至 12%，略低於營業利潤。

The gross margin has been strong in the first nine months of the year, driven by mix and efficiencies.

在組合和效率的推動下，今年前九個月的毛利率一直強勁。

In Q4, we expect gross margin to be down year-on-year as we plan to make further investments to drive future supply chain efficiencies with additional charges of around GBP100 million.

第四季度，我們預計毛利率將同比下降，因為我們計劃進一步投資以提高未來供應鏈效率，額外費用約為 1 億英鎊。

For the full year, we expect gross margin to be slightly ahead of 2023.

就全年而言，我們預計毛利率將略高於 2023 年。

There is no change to our expectations for R&D to increase slightly below sales growth and for royalties to be around GBP600 million for the full year.

我們對全年研發成長略低於銷售成長以及特許權使用費約為 6 億英鎊的預期沒有變化。

SG&A is expected to grow ahead of sales in Q4 due to the phasing of spend between the quarters, investments in new launches and the drive for efficiencies through increased digitization.

由於各季度之間的支出分階段、新產品的投資以及透過提高數位化來提高效率，預計銷售、管理和行政費用將在第四季度領先於銷售成長。

For the full year, we maintain our guidance of SG&A growth at a low single-digit percentage given our focus on (inaudible) allocation and improved productivity.

鑑於我們專注於（聽不清楚）分配和提高生產力，我們將全年的 SG&A 成長指引維持在較低的個位數百分比。

We will update you on our view of 2025 next year.

我們將在明年向您通報我們對 2025 年的最新看法。

But importantly, we remain very confident in achieving our group growth outlook for '21 to '26 of more than 7% sales growth and more than 11% core operating profit growth, albeit the shape of this could be more weighted to Specialty Medicines, reflecting expected performance.

但重要的是，我們仍然對實現 21 至 26 年集團成長預期超過 7% 的銷售成長和超過 11% 的核心營業利潤成長充滿信心，儘管這種成長形式可能更偏重於特種藥品，反映出預期表現。

In summary, we have delivered another quarter of growth reflecting the breadth of our portfolio and the building momentum in Specialty.

總之，我們又實現了一個季度的成長，反映出我們投資組合的廣度和專業領域的發展勢頭。

This and our pipeline progress mean we are very confident in achieving our full year guidance as well as our medium and longer term outlook.

這和我們的管道進展意味著我們對實現全年指導以及中長期前景非常有信心。

Next slide, please.

請下一張投影片。

Turning to our IR road map.

轉向我們的 IR 路線圖。

Significant progress has been made towards major milestones and value unlocks.

在重大里程碑和價值釋放方面已經取得了重大進展。

I've also highlighted here the five major regulatory approvals expected next year across three therapeutic areas.

我還在此強調了明年預計在三個治療領域獲得的五項主要監管批准。

We also look forward to our next Meet the Management event at the end of the year, which will be the first introduction to some of our early-stage pipeline.

我們也期待在今年年底舉行下一次與管理層會面的活動，這將是我們首次介紹我們的一些早期產品線。

And with that, I am pleased to hand back to Emma to conclude.

至此，我很高興將結論交回艾瑪。

Thanks, Julie.

謝謝，朱莉。

So to summarize.

所以總結一下。

While Q3 has presented some challenges, our business has responded well, and we are on track to deliver our strong sales and profit guidance for 2024.

儘管第三季帶來了一些挑戰，但我們的業務反應良好，我們預計將實現 2024 年強勁的銷售和利潤指引。

Looking ahead, we have a best-in-class Vaccine business, an increasingly strong and growing Specialty Business and a very profitable Gen Meds business.

展望未來，我們擁有一流的疫苗業務、日益強大且不斷成長的特殊業務以及利潤豐厚的通用藥物業務。

Together and combined with the momentum we continue to see in our pipeline and our careful but meaningful deployment of capital into business development, this means we're well positioned to deliver and sustain profitable growth through the decade with scale health impact and attractive returns for shareholders.

結合我們在管道中繼續看到的勢頭以及我們在業務發展中謹慎但有意義的資本部署，這意味著我們處於有利位置，可以在十年內實現並維持盈利增長，為股東帶來規模化的健康影響和有吸引力的回報。

All of this by combining science, technology and the talent of GSK's people to get ahead of disease together.

所有這一切都是透過將科學、技術和 GSK 員工的才能相結合來共同戰勝疾病。

With that, let's now open up the call for Q&A with the team.

現在，讓我們開始與團隊進行問答。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

James Gordon, JPMorgan.

詹姆斯‧戈登，摩根大通。

Hello.

你好。

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

One question was on the (inaudible) vaccine, so for Affinivax.

其中一個問題是關於（聽不清楚）疫苗，對於 Affinivax 也是如此。

So I think you did have a 24 valent adult and then I think that's been removed and you're switching to 30 valent.

所以我認為你確實有一個 24 價的成年人，然後我認為它已被刪除，你將切換到 30 價。

So just what is the latest in terms of waiting for this Affinivax product could come along?

那麼，等待 Affinivax 產品出現的最新消息是什麼？

And is this connected to, I think (inaudible) had some competitor data with the 31 valent.

我認為（聽不清楚）這是否與 31 價的一些競爭對手數據有關。

And is it, is this for the pediatrics and the adults that you're both shifting into?

這是針對你們正在轉向的兒科和成人的嗎？

That's the first question, please.

這是第一個問題，請。

The second question would be '25, a few comments on '25.

第二個問題是“25”，關於“25”的一些評論。

If we're thinking about '25, should we think that maybe Shingrix and Arexvy might be down, but also you could have some further significant SG&A leverage because you had a good performance on SG&A today?

如果我們考慮 25 年，我們是否應該認為 Shingrix 和 Arexvy 可能會下跌，但您也可能擁有一些進一步重要的 SG&A 槓桿，因為您今天在 SG&A 方面表現良好？

Or might, we need to think about your spending more on SG&A because you've got new launches next year?

或者，我們可能需要考慮一下您在 SG&A 上的支出是否增加，因為您明年將推出新產品？

Great.

偉大的。

Well, let's come firstly to Tony on the new (inaudible) update, very much focused on getting to best-in-class vaccines as we have with our current portfolio.

好吧，讓我們先談談托尼的新（聽不清楚）更新，非常關注我們目前產品組合中的一流疫苗。

And then myself and Julie will come back on guidance questions.

然後我和朱莉將回來討論指導問題。

Yes.

是的。

So thanks for the question, James.

謝謝你的提問，詹姆斯。

Let me just start by sort of underscoring the platform in general.

讓我先從整體上強調一下這個平台。

And I would say that as we learn more about our platform, we become more and more confident in the fact that it presents a unique proposition to Emma's comment about best-in-class.

我想說，隨著我們對我們的平台了解得越來越多，我們越來越相信它為艾瑪關於一流的評論提出了獨特的主張。

And it does so because it provides both coverage of antigens in particular serotype three because of the carrier protein proposition.

之所以這樣做，是因為它由於載體蛋白的主張而提供了抗原特別是血清型三的覆蓋。

And it does so without the diminishing immunogenicity that you see in the CRM based platforms for which, as you add antigen coverage, immunogenicity diminishes.

而且它不會出現您在基於 CRM 的平台中看到的免疫原性減弱的情況，當您增加抗原覆蓋範圍時，免疫原性就會減弱。

We have strong comparisons for our platform versus both the 20 and 30 valent TCB vaccines.

我們對我們的平台與 20 價和 30 價 TCB 疫苗進行了強有力的比較。

You're right, we have shifted our prioritization in the adult vaccine towards a 30-plus proposition, and that is initially, you will recall, of course, the backsides are in a similar position.

你是對的，我們已經將成人疫苗的優先順序轉向了 30 多個提議，當然，你會記得，這是最初的，背面也處於類似的位置。

The Merck 21 valent vaccine, which carefully chose serotypes established vaccine efficacy sealing against those chosen serotypes in the adult population.

默克 21 價疫苗仔細選擇了血清型，在成年人群中建立了這些選定血清型的疫苗效力。

So we believe makes the 30-plus proposition the most effective one.

因此，我們相信 30+ 的提議是最有效的。

I think you see that reflected in the Pfizer strategy described yesterday as well.

我想您也看到了昨天描述的輝瑞策略中所反映的內容。

As I say, I remain confident in the properties of our platform based on the data that we're accruing, and I expect to be able to start a 30-plus adult first-in-human study next year.

正如我所說，根據我們累積的數據，我對我們平台的特性仍然充滿信心，我預計明年能夠開始一項針對 30 多名成人的首次人體研究。

As far as the pediatric proposition is concerned, we remain developing both 24 and 30 plus vaccines in that context, and we're confident about the competitive setting for both the 24 and 30 plus vaccines with regards to ultimate launch date, although we've not disclosed those in detail.

就兒科主張而言，我們仍在開發 24 和 30 以上疫苗，並且我們對 24 和 30 以上疫苗在最終上市日期方面的競爭環境充滿信心，儘管我們已經沒有詳細透露那些。

Thanks, Tony.

謝謝，托尼。

So in terms of looking into '25, I mean, obviously, we're going to guide for '25 in '25.

因此，就研究“25”而言，我的意思是，顯然，我們將在“25”中為“25”提供指導。

But I'll ask Julie in a moment just to recap a little bit on some of the points we've made on the individual product areas to help you, but also our confidence in the shape of the P&L too, because make no mistake, we expect '25 to be another year of profitable growth for the company.

但我稍後會請朱莉回顧我們在各個產品領域提出的一些觀點，以幫助您，同時也讓我們對損益表的形狀充滿信心，因為毫無疑問，我們預計25 年將是公司盈利增長的另一年。

And we are very confident in our '26 outlooks and our '31 outlook of more than 7% top line growth, more than 11% bottom line growth, more than GBP38 billion.

我們對 26 年和 31 年的前景非常有信心，即營收成長超過 7%，淨利潤成長超過 11%，超過 380 億英鎊。

And again, that doesn't yet include Blenrep, where we've made great progress both on the data.

再說一遍，這還不包括 Blenrep，我們在數據方面都取得了巨大進展。

We're looking forward to getting overall survival later on this year, too, and we filed in multi-regions this quarter.

我們也期待在今年稍後獲得整體生存率，並且本季我們在多個地區進行了備案。

As we look into 2025, per the commentary, we expect the growth from our largest product area, Specialty to continue to lead the way.

根據評論，展望 2025 年，我們預計我們最大的產品領域專業領域的成長將繼續引領潮流。

And we have, per Luke's comments made assumptions to be conservative around any ACIP judgment and that there will be no change for next year.

根據盧克的評論，我們對 ACIP 的任何判決都做出了保守的假設，明年不會有任何改變。

Obviously, we're dependent on them.

顯然，我們依賴他們。

But in terms of either revax or we hope that we continue to bring data.

但無論是revax還是我們希望繼續帶來數據。

We can comment more on that if you like.

如果您願意，我們可以對此發表更多評論。

But make no mistake, medium term, whether it be in our confidence of growth both for Shingrix ex US or for RSV, which is really in the very early days of its life cycle or because of the pipeline that's coming through per (inaudible) commentary or mRNA or very excitingly, all of that value unlocked we're seeing across Specialty Medicines with five, hopefully, approvals that are not about just coming through in '25, but driving more growth for that chapter beyond in the decade.

但請不要誤會，從中期來看，無論是我們對Shingrix ex US 還是RSV 的增長充滿信心，RSV 實際上正處於其生命週期的早期階段，或者是因為每個（聽不清楚）評論正在通過的管道或mRNA 或非常令人興奮的是，我們在特種藥物中看到了所有這些價值的釋放，希望這些批准不僅僅是在25 年獲得批准，而是在未來十年推動這一章節的更多增長。

So Julie, I think there are other specifics that's worth recapping and particularly also, those lines in the P&L where we're starting to drive some powerful leverage.

所以朱莉，我認為還有其他細節值得回顧，特別是損益表中我們開始推動一些強大槓桿作用的那些行。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So I think Emma's articulated and Luke earlier the overall approach for vaccines.

所以我認為艾瑪和盧克早些時候闡明了疫苗的整體方法。

I would just like to draw attention to the Specialty Medicines business.

我只想提請大家關注特種藥品業務。

It's now our biggest business.

現在這是我們最大的業務。

It's 37% of our business, and it drove more than 70% of our growth year-to-date.

它占我們業務的 37%，並推動了我們今年迄今為止 70% 以上的成長。

And it's been one of the major contributors to the point you raised about the leverage in leveraging the P&L.

它是您提出的關於利用損益表的槓桿問題的主要貢獻者之一。

So we've just delivered year-to-date 9% on the top line, 19% on the profit, and that is absorbing the Gardasil as well.

因此，今年迄今為止，我們剛剛實現了 9% 的營收成長，19% 的利潤成長，這也包括了加衛苗 (Gardasil)。

And there are a number of important therapeutic areas driving that.

有許多重要的治療領域推動著這一趨勢。

Obviously, HIV, respiratory, immunology and oncology, as mentioned, our oncology business has more than doubled year-to-date to over GBP1 billion.

顯然，正如前面提到的，在愛滋病毒、呼吸系統、免疫學和腫瘤學方面，我們的腫瘤學業務今年迄今已增長了一倍多，達到超過 10 億英鎊。

So turning to 2025, we do see growth coming from Nucala, Benlysta.

因此，展望 2025 年，我們確實看到了 Nucala 和 Benlysta 的成長。

We've obviously got COPD to come for Nucala having just been submitted.

顯然我們剛剛提交了 Nucala 的 COPD 報告。

And then we've got the oncology strength coming from Jemperli expanded population and Ojjaara and then, hopefully, Blenrep following the recent submission.

然後，我們從 Jemperli 擴大的人口和 Ojjaara 以及最近提交的 Blenrep 中獲得了腫瘤學實力。

In terms of the P&L leverage.

就損益槓桿而言。

As you can see, year-to-date, we've delivered very strong gross margin leverage.

正如您所看到的，今年迄今為止，我們提供了非常強勁的毛利率槓桿。

Again, this has been benefited from Specialty Care, and we continue to see the gross margin being strong apart from this fourth quarter where we're going to put these additional charges through to drive future supply chain efficiencies.

同樣，這得益於特殊護理，除了第四季度之外，我們繼續看到毛利率強勁，我們將透過這些額外費用來提高未來的供應鏈效率。

And then in terms of the launches next year, as Emma mentioned, we've got five regulatory approvals and launches coming across Vaccines, Specialty and General Medicines, they are in our four key therapeutic areas where we've already got a strong presence, be it respiratory, be it vaccines, albeit also now in oncology.

然後就明年的上市而言，正如艾瑪所提到的，我們已經獲得了五個監管部門的批准，並在疫苗、專科藥物和普通藥物領域上市，它們在我們已經擁有強大影響力的四個關鍵治療領域，無論是呼吸系統、疫苗，或是現在的腫瘤學。

So therefore, you can expect us to continue to deliver profitable growth in 2025, as Emma clearly mentioned.

因此，正如艾瑪明確提到的那樣，您可以預期我們將在 2025 年繼續實現盈利增長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Kerry Holford.

凱瑞·霍爾福德。

Thanks Jeff.

謝謝傑夫。

Yes.

是的。

Kerry Holford from Berenberg.

來自貝倫貝格的凱瑞·霍爾福德。

A couple of questions from me, please.

請我問幾個問題。

Firstly, in Shingrix in China.

首先是在中國的Shingrix。

I wonder if you can comment there on the sales contribution from (inaudible) in Q3.

我想知道您是否可以對第三季（聽不清楚）的銷售貢獻發表評論。

And also just remind us the details of that contract with (inaudible) in that market.

並且提醒我們與該市場（聽不清楚）簽訂的合約的詳細資訊。

And there, those numbers that you've mentioned previously for year one, two to three, are they set in stone?

您之前提到的第一年、第二年到第三年的那些數字是一成不變的嗎？

Or is there some degree of flex within that

或者其中是否存在某種程度的靈活性

(inaudible) ? .

（聽不清楚）？ 。

And then secondly, on respiratory, specifically in COPD, when might we get to see the detailed Phase (inaudible) Nucala data?

其次，在呼吸方面，特別是在慢性阻塞性肺病方面，我們什麼時候才能看到詳細的階段（聽不清楚）Nucala 數據？

And previously, you had noted that if you get a positive result here, you would swiftly move depemokimab into Phase III.

之前，您曾指出，如果在這裡獲得積極結果，您將迅速將 depemokimab 轉移到 III 期。

Is that still your current thinking?

這還是你現在的想法嗎？

Or now is the (inaudible) opportunity going to take a more important role in that space also?

或者現在（聽不清楚）機會是否也會在該領域發揮更重要的作用？

We'll come to Tony first on the IL-5 pipeline, which we are very excited about.

我們將首先介紹 IL-5 管道的托尼，我們對此感到非常興奮。

And then we'll come to Luke to comment on where we're at with China.

然後我們將請盧克評論我們與中國的關係。

Remembering that there are a degree of macro pressures here.

請記住，這裡存在一定程度的宏觀壓力。

So obviously, we've got a great partnership there, and we're trying to take a long-term view on it.

顯然，我們在那裡建立了良好的合作關係，並且我們正在努力以長遠的眼光看待它。

But Luke, it would be good if you could update on where we're at the

但是盧克，如果你能更新我們的最新進展，那就太好了

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

But first, Tony, to you.

但首先，東尼，對你來說。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Kerry.

謝謝你的提問，克里。

Let me just begin by reminding everyone that Nucala is the first and only biologic approved in four different mediated diseases.

首先，我要提醒大家，Nucala 是第一個也是唯一一個被批准用於治療四種不同介導疾病的生物製劑。

What we showed with the (inaudible) headline data or we will show with the (inaudible) headline and broader data is that it reduces exacerbations across the full spectrum of COPD patients.

我們透過（聽不清楚）標題數據或我們將透過（聽不清楚）標題和更廣泛的數據顯示的是，它可以減少所有慢性阻塞性肺病患者的病情加重。

You'll get more detail on that, Kerry in the first half of next year at an appropriate conference, obviously, until we've had approvals of the abstract, I can't give you details on that.

克里，您將在明年上半年的適當會議上獲得更多詳細信息，顯然，在我們獲得摘要批准之前，我無法向您提供相關詳細信息。

But the important point to stress there is that it is the broader performance of Nucala illustrated in (inaudible) across the COPD population.

但需要強調的重要一點是，Nucala 在 COPD 族群中（聽不清楚）表現出更廣泛的表現。

I might also take the opportunity just to remind everyone that what we said in the past is that in comparison with (inaudible) , it's important to consider that the population studied in metrics, (inaudible) are different due to the populations.

我也想藉此機會提醒大家，我們過去所說的是，與（聽不清楚）相比，重要的是要考慮到指標研究的人群（聽不清楚）因人群而異。

We are taking the broader COPD population, including (inaudible) patients.

我們正在研究更廣泛的慢性阻塞性肺病族群，包括（聽不清楚）患者。

And of course, that's important when one considers that COPD is the third leading cause of death worldwide and 300 million people have COPD, and a significant proportion of those, high 30%, if I remember correctly are entycemic.

當然，這一點很重要，因為慢性阻塞性肺病是全球第三大死因，有3 億人患有慢性阻塞性肺病，其中很大一部分（如果我沒記錯的話，高達30%）是腸溶性的。

So more from us on Nucala and the details of that at the beginning or the middle of next year so as I indicated.

正如我所指出的，我們將在明年年初或年中提供有關 Nucala 的更多資訊以及詳細資訊。

And then what I would highlight in terms of what follows from that with regard the next wave portfolio plans.

然後我要強調的是下一波投資組合計畫的後續內容。

Obviously, it positions (inaudible) very favorably.

顯然，它的地位（聽不清楚）非常有利。

What we know from II , of course, already is that offers a significant advantage in two injections per year versus 26 in the comparison with

當然，我們從 II 中了解到，與每年 26 次注射相比，每年兩次注射具有顯著優勢。

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

But I'm also very pleased, and you'll hear more about this in the Meet the Management, that we have long-acting options in both (inaudible) and IL-33.

但我也非常高興，您將在與管理層會面中聽到更多相關信息，我們在（聽不清楚）和 IL-33 方面都有長效選擇。

So what we'll disclose to you there is how we think about positioning those three long-acting options into an emerging understanding of the subgroups of COPD disease.

因此，我們將向您透露的是我們如何考慮將這三種長效選擇定位到對慢性阻塞性肺病亞群的新興理解中。

Thanks, Kerry.

謝謝，凱瑞。

So on the Q2 call, I did flag that we're concerned about and would watch closely what's occurring in China, particularly in terms of the tighter POB budgets and just some of the flow of funding around those.

因此，在第二季的電話會議上，我確實指出，我們擔心並將密切關注中國發生的情況，特別是在 POB 預算收緊以及圍繞這些問題的部分資金流方面。

And of course, the macro, which is very broadly covered across many industries.

當然，還有宏觀，它廣泛涵蓋許多行業。

And so we're actually seeing that it definitely impacts a broader slowdown in the economy definitely impacts us all, pay market, and also just the capacity of local governments to then restock, purchase vaccines, which are then subsequently purchased by individuals.

因此，我們實際上看到，它肯定會影響更廣泛的經濟放緩，肯定會影響我們所有人、支付市場，以及地方政府補充庫存、購買疫苗（隨後由個人購買）的能力。

So these are having an effect on our volumes.

所以這些對我們的銷售有影響。

We're working closely with Zhifei.

我們正在與志飛密切合作。

Again, if we look at the medium to long term, I mean the partnership has started extremely well.

再說一次，如果我們著眼於中長期，我的意思是合作關係已經開始得非常好。

These are impressive operators.

這些都是令人印象深刻的運營商。

They've got to a far number of points of vaccination than we could ever hope to get to with our infrastructure.

他們已經完成了遠遠多於我們希望透過我們的基礎設施能夠達到的疫苗接種點的工作。

You asked what we've sold, we've sold around EUR240 million out of the [0.4] that we had in the contract.

你問我們賣了什麼，我們已經賣掉了合約中 [0.4] 的大約 2.4 億歐元。

There is flex in the contract

合約中有彈性條款

(inaudible) .

（聽不清楚）。

So our intent is to be practical here and work through this with Zhifei, but we have our eyes on the long-term opportunity of about 0.5 million people in China who are 50-plus.

因此，我們的目的是務實，與智飛一起解決這個問題，但我們著眼於中國約 50 萬名 50 歲以上人口的長期機會。

So that's where the focus is at this point.

所以這就是目前的重點。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Jo Walton.

喬沃爾頓.

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'm going to just ask a broader question about IRA and the pressures that we might experience next year.

我只想問一個關於 IRA 以及我們明年可能遇到的壓力的更廣泛的問題。

Some of the pushes and pulls here.

這裡有一些推力和拉力。

We've already seen some companies show higher prescription growth as they go through the year.

我們已經看到一些公司在這一年中顯示出更高的處方成長。

And it's notable for ben going up 6%, 9% and then 14%.

值得注意的是，ben 上漲了 6%、9%，然後是 14%。

Is any of that to do with already experiencing lower, people already experiencing lower co-pays?

這是否與已經經歷較低的共同支付費用有關？

Could that be a benefit to you going forward?

這對你今後的發展有好處嗎？

You've talked about pressures in the past for respiratory where the authorized generics are and you've done so well, presumably, payers are not getting the rebates that they want.

您過去曾談到呼吸系統疾病領域的壓力，在授權仿製藥方面，您做得很好，想必付款人沒有得到他們想要的回扣。

Are you seeing more pressures for rebates elsewhere?

您是否發現其他地方的回扣壓力更大？

You must be a long way through your negotiations for next year.

你明年的談判一定已經完成了很長的路要走。

So you should be able to tell us how your expectations are for access going forward?

那麼您應該能夠告訴我們您對未來訪問的期望如何？

And a second question, if I could, please.

第二個問題，如果可以的話，請提問。

Could you just tell us a little bit about RSV, ex US?

您能告訴我們一些關於 RSV（美國除外）的資訊嗎？

Is that really not an opportunity at all until the dosing has been sorted out?

在確定劑量之前，這真的不是一個機會嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So Luke, let's come to you.

那麼盧克，我們來找你吧。

And (technical difficulty) to 500 overall on (inaudible) and then RSV ex US.

且（技術難度）達到 500（聽不清楚），然後 RSV ex US。

Yes.

是的。

I mean look, there is increased pressure there.

我的意思是看，那裡的壓力越來越大。

I think PBMs will go looking for offsetting that amount.

我認為 PBM 將尋求抵消該金額。

I think we're starting to see tactical decisions by physicians in terms of trying to push people through that coverage.

我認為我們開始看到醫生在試圖推動人們接受這項保險方面所做的戰術決定。

And I think that's across the whole portfolio.

我認為這貫穿了整個投資組合。

Specifically for us, I mean, with 340B, we've got about nine states that have got legislation.

我的意思是，對我們來說，透過 340B，我們大約有 9 個州制定了立法。

There's another 10 which are working on it.

還有另外 10 個人正在處理這個問題。

So that impacts Specialty.

所以會影響專業。

There's also some impact on Vaccines, of course, but they tend to benefit in aggregate because of the removal of the co-pay.

當然，這對疫苗也有一些影響，但由於取消了共付額，它們往往會整體受益。

The other thing, the factor, particularly with Trelegy, well, it is a Trelegy driven element, which is this $35 co-pay, which will have an effect next year.

另一件事，特別是 Trelegy 的因素，嗯，這是 Trelegy 驅動的因素，這就是 35 美元的自付費用，這將在明年產生影響。

And then longer term with Trelegy, we expect it to be listed next year.

從長期來看，我們預計 Trelegy 將於明年上市。

I think the government has learned through the first round, particularly around the influence and dynamics of the coverage gap.

我認為政府已經從第一輪中吸取了教訓，特別是在覆蓋範圍差距的影響和動態方面。

So we expect more pressure on pricing, and that will flow through with Trelegy in '26 and '27, but we think we can start to return to growth after that with Trelegy.

因此，我們預計定價方面會面臨更大的壓力，這將在 26 年和 27 年透過 Trelegy 實現，但我們認為在那之後我們可以透過 Trelegy 開始恢復成長。

And of course, ex US, it continues to do well. the areas where we tend to see pressure with 340B products like Zejula and Nucala.

當然，除美國之外，它繼續表現良好。我們往往會看到 Zejula 和 Nucala 等 340B 產品帶來壓力的領域。

Specifically on Nucala, I think it's more driven by, we're starting to pivot and to look at nasal polyps.

特別是在 Nucala 上，我認為這更多是由我們開始轉向並關注鼻息肉所驅動的。

It's been very successful Europe.

歐洲非常成功。

We've been a little bit slower in the US to pivot to that.

我們在美國轉向這一點的速度有點慢。

And now we're really aggressively looking at that and seeing very good feedback.

現在我們正在積極地關注這一點並看到非常好的反饋。

And the EMTs are certainly, they're willing to experiment with this molecule.

急救人員當然願意嘗試這種分子。

And we've seen, I mean, we tested it in markets like Italy and saw a fantastic surge in Nucala.

我們已經看到，我的意思是，我們在義大利等市場進行了測試，並看到了努卡拉的驚人成長。

So that's what we're now ramping up in all the key markets globally with Nucala.

這就是我們現在透過 Nucala 在全球所有主要市場上進行的推廣。

And RSV ex US.

還有來自美國的 RSV。

Sure.

當然。

I think now we know enough about this vaccine that we need to move forward.

我認為現在我們對這種疫苗已經有了足夠的了解，我們需要繼續前進。

The feedback we're getting is very encouraging. (inaudible) just did a broad RSV vaccine contract in Germany at about EUR 180 for both us and the other guys.

我們得到的回饋非常令人鼓舞。 （聽不清楚）剛剛在德國簽訂了一份廣泛的 RSV 疫苗合同，我們和其他人的價格約為 180 歐元。

So that's encouraging.

所以這是令人鼓舞的。

We should see good adoption there.

我們應該會看到那裡的良好採用。

And then the rest of the world, the basic elements of RSV, the morbidity, mortality, these are very apparent.

然後世界其他地區，RSV的基本要素，發病率、死亡率，這些都是非常明顯的。

I think one thing that we're watching is just different geographies at emphasizing older adults, other ones are more focused on maternal.

我認為我們正在關注的一件事是不同地區對老年人的重視不同，其他地區則更關注母親。

So for example, (inaudible) in Latin America is more focused on maternal as is Australia, whereas the European markets are more focused on older adults, including Japan.

例如，（聽不清楚）拉丁美洲和澳洲一樣更關注產婦，而歐洲市場更關注老年人，包括日本。

So early days, but I think we've got a pretty good idea of the pricing point.

雖然還為時過早，但我認為我們已經對定價點有了很好的了解。

As I said earlier, we did set out the UK tender.

正如我之前所說，我們確實進行了英國招標。

Canada was very, very price intensive.

加拿大的物價非常非常密集。

So our whole strategy here is, as I said in Q2, we want to play the longer term game.

因此，正如我在第二季所說，我們的整體策略是，我們希望玩更長期的遊戲。

We have the best-in-class vaccine.

我們擁有一流的疫苗。

We've accumulated a very clear picture on the benefit risk and the potency and the duration of effect.

我們已經對效益風險、效力和效果持續時間有了非常清晰的了解。

So now we're moving to contract.

所以現在我們要轉向合約。

Thanks, Luke.

謝謝，盧克。

I mean, I think as you can see in our reported sales, international RSV sales are still a very small fraction.

我的意思是，我認為正如您在我們報告的銷售額中看到的那樣，國際 RSV 銷售額仍然只佔很小的一部分。

And in fact, in the US, I think we, there's still 80% of those that ACIP have said this vaccine is (inaudible) to who are not yet vaccinated.

事實上，在美國，我認為仍有 80% 的 ACIP 表示該疫苗（聽不清楚）適合尚未接種疫苗的人。

Obviously, for the reasons that we've run through, it's a tougher year this year.

顯然，由於我們已經經歷過的原因，今年是更加艱難的一年。

But fundamentally, the benefit of this vaccine, all the data that surrounds it, the fact revax will come when you look at the waning that comes through by year three, that's for ACIP to decide when, all of that means we're, when you look at where Shingrix is, with nearly 60% of the business coming internationally, there is plenty of room for penetration of this high performing vaccine over time.

但從根本上講，這種疫苗的好處，圍繞它的所有數據，當你看到第三年的衰退時，事實就會到來，這是由ACIP 決定何時，所有這些都意味著我們，何時你看看 Shingrix 的情況，近 60% 的業務來自國際，隨著時間的推移，這種高性能疫苗還有很大的滲透空間。

Next question please.

請下一個問題。

Simon Baker.

西蒙貝克。

Thank you Jeff and thanks for the call, everyone.

謝謝傑夫，也謝謝大家的來電。

Two questions, if I may, please.

如果可以的話，請提兩個問題。

Firstly, on depemokimab.

首先，關於 depemokimab。

Could you remind us what assumptions in terms of severity of asthma is assumed within the peak sales number, how far down the continuum of severity do you expect to go to get that number?

您能否提醒我們，在高峰銷售數據中對氣喘嚴重程度做出了哪些假設？

.

。

And then secondly, a question on RSV, which may be a slightly naive one.

其次，關於 RSV 的問題，這可能有點幼稚。

But if we have what (inaudible) congestion in pharmacies, and we have a vaccine that has multiyear efficacy, what is the feasibility of shifting the time of vaccination from the autumn to earlier in the year to at least mitigate that issue that you've run into at the moment?

但是，如果我們藥房出現（聽不清楚）擁堵情況，並且我們有一種具有多年療效的疫苗，那麼將疫苗接種時間從秋季改為今年早些時候以至少緩解您所遇到的問題的可行性是什麼？

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

So Luke, to you on deseasonalizing, if that's the word.

盧克，向您介紹去季節化（如果可以這麼說的話）。

By the way, I think when we get to combo vaccines, which obviously GSK wants to compete in, that would also help in terms of share of arm space.

順便說一句，我認為當我們開發組合疫苗時，葛蘭素史克顯然希望參與競爭，這也將有助於擴大手臂空間。

But Luke, perhaps you can comment on that and then Tony, we'll come to you in terms of the profile of asthmatics.

但是盧克，也許你可以對此發表評論，然後托尼，我們會根據哮喘的概況來找你。

With that, Luke?

就這樣，盧克?

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I think you've hit the nail on the head there.

我的意思是，我認為你說到點子上了。

It's tough right now with Arexvy and the class for the reasons we know, primarily because of the direction that ACIP has given in terms of narrowing the class on the basis of benefit of risk.

由於我們所知的原因，Arexvy 和該類別現在面臨困難，主要是因為 ACIP 給出了根據風險收益縮小類別範圍的方向。

But again, we think this will adjust over time for reasons that I'll go through in a minute.

但同樣，我們認為這會隨著時間的推移而調整，原因我稍後會講到。

And I mean, Tony and I were texting each other as we watch the FDA presentation at ACIP, and the benefit risk slide was slide 10, which said that for every million people that you vaccinate over a three year period, in the existing 75 plus, 60 to 74 at risk, it's about 2,000 less deaths, 15,000 less hospitalizations, and the trade-off is 0 to 18 or about 9 (inaudible) cases.

我的意思是，托尼和我在 ACIP 上觀看 FDA 演示時互相發短信，收益風險幻燈片是幻燈片 10，其中表示，在三年內每百萬人接種疫苗，在現有的 75 多個人中， ，60 至74 人處於危險之中，死亡人數減少約2,000 人，住院人數減少15,000 人，而代價是0 至18 人或約9（聽不清楚）病例。

So I think that will start to assert itself over time.

所以我認為隨著時間的推移，這一點將會開始顯現出來。

When we look at co-administration with RSV, even just recently, it's really quite striking.

當我們看到與 RSV 的共同管理時，即使在最近，它確實非常引人注目。

In August, if you, Arexvy 56% of the time was given with another vaccine, that jumped to 71% in September.

8 月份，如果 Arexvy 56% 的人接種了另一種疫苗，那麼 9 月份這一比例躍升至 71%。

And what is remarkable, if you look at what it was given with in August, it was flu 24% at the time, in September, that was 12%.

值得注意的是，如果你看看 8 月服用的藥物，你會發現當時有 24% 是流感，而 9 月則是 12%。

And what really moved was it was 3% with COVID in August, and that jumped to 10% in September of '24.

真正令人感動的是 8 月感染新冠病毒的比例為 3%，到 2024 年 9 月這一比例躍升至 10%。

What is really interesting is the triplet, COVID, flu combination, that went from 5% of Arexvy shots in August to 27% in September.

真正有趣的是，新冠肺炎和流感這三重組合，Arexvy 疫苗接種比例從 8 月的 5% 增加到 9 月的 27%。

So what that tells me is there is an opportunity, as we did with Shingrix, and we've got more work to do with Shingrix, but as we did with Shingrix to deseasonalize this vaccine and because of this longer window, which again, that's what pharmacists tell us they want in terms of just managing their workflow, staffing levels, et cetera.

所以這告訴我，這是一個機會，就像我們對Shingrix 所做的那樣，我們還有更多工作要做，但正如我們對Shingrix 所做的那樣，要淡化這種疫苗的季節性，並且由於這個較長的窗口，這又是藥劑師告訴我們他們想要的只是管理他們的工作流程、人員配備水準等等。

So I think we will get there in the mid to long term with this vaccine.

所以我認為我們將在中長期內透過這種疫苗實現這一目標。

In terms of depemokimab I don't think we've given the peak penetration rate.

就 depemokimab 而言，我認為我們沒有給出峰值滲透率。

But if you look at biological penetration, it is still disappointingly low.

但如果你看看生物滲透率，它仍然低得令人失望。

It's about one-third, which is just under one-third of people who are actually eligible for a biologic, and it's not an access issue.

這個比例大約是三分之一，略低於實際上有資格獲得生物製品的人數的三分之一，而且這不是獲取問題。

It's essentially pulmonologist being willing and allergists as well to prescribe biologics in those patient groups.

本質上，肺科醫生和過敏科醫生都願意為這些患者群體開立生物製劑。

What is attractive about depemokimab when we do our market research is that, first, you've got this Part B, B for bravo, dimension, a buy-and-bill component, which is not as prominent with Nucala.

當我們進行市場研究時，depemokimab 的吸引力在於，首先，你有這個 B 部分，B 代表 bravo、維度、購買和賬單組件，這在 Nucala 中並不那麼突出。

And then when we look at market research, I mean, it's the recent market research, you've got around 80% of HCP who are extremely interested in that six month profile, and about 58% say they'll use it naive patients, and about two-thirds said they'll consider switching.

然後，當我們查看市場研究時，我的意思是，這是最近的市場研究，大約80% 的HCP 對這六個月的概況非常感興趣，大約58% 的人表示他們會在天真的患者中使用它，大約三分之二的人表示他們會考慮更換。

And then when we look at patients, around 60%, say, six months is a lot more attractive and just under 90% would actually consider if their doctor recommended it.

然後，當我們觀察患者時，大約 60% 的患者（例如，六個月）更具吸引力，而略低於 90% 的患者實際上會考慮醫生是否建議這樣做。

So that translates to about a 20% jump in our models anyway based on market research.

因此，根據市場研究，這意味著我們的模型成長了 20% 左右。

I mean that's not real.

我的意思是那不是真的。

You've got to go and do it, but about a 20% uplift in biologic use because of that efficacy frequency trade-offs.

你必須去做，但由於功效頻率的權衡，生物製劑的使用量增加了約 20%。

So let's see.

那麼讓我們來看看。

The other thing is we've got all of the, with the exception of COPD, all the life cycle coming within two years of the initial approval, which is very different from Nucala, which was around six years.

另一件事是，除了 COPD 之外，我們所有的生命週期都在最初批准後的兩年內完成，這與 Nucala 非常不同，Nucala 的生命週期約為六年。

Yes.

是的。

Tony, I don't know if you've got anything to add to that?

東尼，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Well, just sort of, Simon, the way to think about it was on the SWIFT-1 and SWIFT-2 studies, of course, we're designed to look at reduction of exacerbations on top of standard of care.

好吧，Simon，我們的思考方式是 SWIFT-1 和 SWIFT-2 研究，當然，我們的目的是在標準護理的基礎上減少病情加重。

The primary endpoint across both of those was method of 54% reduction.

兩者的主要終點是減少 54% 的方法。

That's what we should have expected.

這是我們應該預料到的。

Remember, we were matching exposure relative to Nucala, but just a few tidbits to dig into the details a little further to emphasize the quality of depemokimab in terms of administration frequency to build on Luke's point.

請記住，我們正在匹配相對於 Nucala 的暴露，但只是一些花絮，以進一步深入研究細節，以強調 depemokimab 在給藥頻率方面的質量，以建立盧克的觀點。

What we also see from, for example, in the prespecified analysis of in secondaries through exacerbations requiring hospitalization or an (inaudible) is a 72% reduction.

例如，我們也從預先指定的分析中看到，由於病情惡化而需要住院治療或（聽不清楚）的繼發性病例減少了 72%。

And actually, if you look across, both SWIFT-1 and SWIFT-2, it's important to realize that in those studies, 68% of the patients on that experience, no exacerbations at all.

事實上，如果你縱觀 SWIFT-1 和 SWIFT-2，你會發現，在這些研究中，68% 的患者有過這種經歷，根本沒有病情加重。

I mean I think, and then we'll move on to the next question.

我的意思是我想，然後我們將繼續討論下一個問題。

But this demonstration of capability from GSK on the value to patients and health care professionals of a long acting medicine, as we see in our HIV business, to keep people out of hospital and improve compliance as well as just being more user friendly is, I think, a very exciting field for us to continue to pursue and will contribute meaningful growth.

但是，正如我們在愛滋病毒業務中看到的那樣，葛蘭素史克展示了長效藥物對患者和醫療保健專業人員的價值，可以讓人們遠離醫院，提高依從性，並且更加用戶友好，我我認為，這是一個非常令人興奮的領域，值得我們繼續追求，並將貢獻有意義的成長。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Graham Parry, Bank of America.

格雷厄姆·帕里，美國銀行。

Great, thanks for taking my questions.

太好了，感謝您回答我的問題。

So just on Arexvy, looking into 2025, with no booster.

所以就在 Arexvy 上展望 2025 年，沒有任何助推器。

Just wondering what your sort of cadence should expect on first dose penetration.

只是想知道第一次劑量滲透時您的節奏應該是怎樣的。

So should we be thinking increases like the 6% to 7% that we saw with Shingrix into the addressable populations, assuming the expansion of that?

那麼，我們是否應該考慮像 Shingrix 所看到的可尋址人群增加 6% 到 7%（假設其規模擴大）？

And would that, therefore, lead to a drop in the US next year?

因此，這會導緻美國明年經濟下滑嗎？

And then the extent to which you think international can offset this if you're going to start going sort of full for launch into international territories, which I assume, but if you could confirm, would be based on pricing or at least three seasons duration given you have that data now?

然後，如果你要開始全力以赴進入國際地區，你認為國際可以在多大程度上抵消這一點，我認為，但如果你能確認的話，將基於定價或至少三個賽季的持續時間鑑於你現在有這些數據？

And then secondly, on Shingrix, could you just help us to understand what level of inventories Zhifei is holding now and whether you expect to sell any more into Zhifei inventory in 2024?

其次，關於Shingrix，您能否幫我們了解一下智飛目前的庫存水準以及您是否預計在2024年向智飛庫存出售更多庫存？

Or is the 400 essentially not going to be, minimum contracted volume not going to be achieved?

或者說 400 基本上不會實現，最低合約量不會實現？

And then your confidence in achieving the GBP800 million and GBP1.2 billion going forward?

那麼您對未來實現8億英鎊和12億英鎊有信心嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So Graham.

所以格雷厄姆.

I'll just repeat what we've said on China in terms of, and then Luke said in terms of the contracts that we have, but our commitment to take a long term view of a very ambitious partnership here.

我只想重複一下我們對中國所說的話，然後盧克就我們所擁有的合約所說的話，但我們承諾從長遠角度看待這裡非常雄心勃勃的合作夥伴關係。

And then Luke, perhaps you can comment more on Arexvy in terms of ambitions ahead.

然後盧克，也許你可以對 Arexvy 未來的雄心壯志進行更多評論。

We're still in the early footfields, both of international and frankly, US penetration.

我們仍處於國際滲透和美國滲透的早期階段。

And don't forget, Graham, this is an unusually slow season.

格雷厄姆，別忘了，這是一個異常緩慢的季節。

And I'm not sure we're going to be forecasting that as a long term standard projection, considering when you look at the last 15 years.

考慮到過去 15 年的情況，我不確定我們是否會將其作為長期標準預測。

But Luke, do you want to comment on penetration?

但是盧克，你想對滲透率發表評論嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean I think the great unpredictable component here is what ACIP does.

我的意思是，我認為這裡最不可預測的部分就是 ACIP 所做的事情。

And they remain cautious.

他們仍然保持謹慎。

I won't requote the FDA figures, but I think that they are important.

我不會重新引用 FDA 的數據，但我認為它們很重要。

The question is what happens with the rest of this year's season.

問題是今年賽季剩餘時間會發生什麼。

I mean, typically, it's November is the classical RSV peak, that has changed since COVID.

我的意思是，通常情況下，11 月是典型的 RSV 高峰，自新冠疫情以來，這種情況已經改變了。

But I think that's informative.

但我認為這很有資訊性。

Also just can ACIP get comfortable about the benefit risk here as they get more data from this season and look at the overall benefit risk?

另外，當 ACIP 從本季獲得更多數據並查看整體收益風險時，他們能否對這裡的收益風險感到放心？

Now if you look at the penetration rates by group in December '23, 75-plus was 17% as of August, which is our most recent data, that's up 21%.

現在，如果您查看 2023 年 12 月按群體劃分的滲透率，截至 8 月（這是我們的最新數據），75 歲以上的滲透率為 17%，增長了 21%。

So you've got the effects of the June ACIP there and that 29 million people population.

所以你已經看到了 6 月 ACIP 和 2900 萬人口的影響。

And if you look at the 60 to 74, that is definitely slowing.

如果你看看 60 到 74 的數字，你會發現這絕對是在放緩。

So that was 10% at the end of last year, and it's about 14% in August '23.

去年年底為 10%，2023 年 8 月約 14%。

So that's the population to watch.

這就是需要關注的人群。

We were pretty clear in quarter two that, that was not good news in terms of what ACIP has said around that population.

我們在第二季就非常清楚地表明，就 ACIP 圍繞該人群所說的內容而言，這不是一個好消息。

There were other views on that, but we felt that, that would return.

對此還有其他觀點，但我們認為，這種情況將會回歸。

The uptake and I think the evidence is there.

我認為證據已經存在。

Then the other swing factor is the 50 to 59 and the 18 plus population.

那麼另一個波動因素是50歲到59歲以及18歲以上的人口。

So I think it's really, it's quite difficult to forecast 2025 with Arexvy because of that component, I feel a lot more confident about the mid- to long term because of all the elements that we've covered.

所以我認為，由於這個因素，用 Arexvy 來預測 2025 年確實非常困難，由於我們已經涵蓋的所有要素，我對中長期前景更有信心。

But I think '25 is going to be challenging until ACIP normalize.

但我認為，在 ACIP 正常化之前，25 年將充滿挑戰。

There's a clear signal set there, and I think HCPs have heard it.

那裡已經發出了明確的信號，我認為 HCP 已經聽到了。

And let's hope over time, the evidence in terms of benefit risk is seen for what it is and uptake starts to recover.

我們希望隨著時間的推移，利益風險的證據能夠被看到，並且採用率開始恢復。

I don't know, Tony, if you want to add anything else?

我不知道，東尼，你還想補充什麼嗎？

No.

不。

I mean just to build on that, and that sort of impact some of the headline conclusions from the ACIP conversations.

我的意思是以此為基礎，這會對 ACIP 對話中的一些主要結論產生影響。

And let me start where you finished.

讓我從你完成的地方開始。

What they concluded in the approved and recommended population is that the benefit risk is proven and clear.

他們在批准和推薦人群中得出的結論是，獲益風險已得到證實且明確。

I think it was, in fact, a commentary that the confidence interval (inaudible) didn't overlap in assessing benefit versus risk.

我認為這實際上是一種評論，即置信區間（聽不清楚）在評估收益與風險時並不重疊。

The FDA themselves conclude that the GPS signal, although becoming statistically significant, is rare, less than 10 cases in a million.

FDA 自己得出的結論是，儘管 GPS 訊號在統計上變得顯著，但它的情況卻很少見，不到百萬分之一。

And so that population, I think, continues to be clearly justified.

因此，我認為，這樣的人口數量仍然是明顯合理的。

And as we mentioned earlier, one in which there are still a need to see an opportunity for further penetration to protect individuals.

正如我們之前提到的，仍然需要看到進一步滲透以保護個人的機會。

There is an opportunity to see expansion of the label into the originally indicated 60-plus population.

有機會看到該標籤擴展到最初指定的 60 歲以上人群。

We have data in the 50 to 59 population and in the 18-plus population and the position on revaccination will become clearer as well.

我們有 50 至 59 歲人口和 18 歲以上人口的數據，關於重新接種疫苗的立場也將變得更加明確。

And just to reiterate in terms of what is behind your question.

只是重申一下你的問題背後的內容。

We have taken a conservative view on our '25 outlook for vaccines overall i.e., no revax, no expansion of cohorts.

我們對 25 年疫苗的整體前景持保守看法，即不進行疫苗接種，也不擴大隊列。

Obviously, that will be in the hands of ACIP.

顯然，這將掌握在 ACIP 的手中。

We'll continue to share data.

我們將繼續共享數據。

We remain very confident in the medium and long-term contribution of vaccines.

我們對疫苗的中長期貢獻仍充滿信心。

The performance of our bigger business, Specialty, as evident this year in our delivery, we'll continue to lead strong profitable growth in '25 and underpins high confidence, alongside the five approvals we're expecting and hoping to get by the end of the year, underpins our serious confidence in all of the long-term outlooks we've been, we committed to and increase at the beginning of this year.

我們更大的業務特種業務的表現，正如今年我們的交付所體現的那樣，我們將在 25 年繼續引領強勁的利潤增長，並鞏固高度信心，同時我們預計並希望在年底前獲得五個批准今年，鞏固了我們對我們一直以來、承諾並在今年年初增強的所有長期前景的堅定信心。

So a short term challenge to digest, but fundamentally, the strength of the portfolio that we have been building alongside the progress in the pipeline always more to do means that we see both Specialty and our Vaccines business continuing to drive a transformation in the shape of GSK and also is performance.

因此，這是一個需要消化的短期挑戰，但從根本上來說，我們一直在建立的投資組合的實力以及管道的進展總是有更多的工作要做，這意味著我們看到特種產品和我們的疫苗業務繼續推動轉型GSK還有就是性能。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Emmanuel Papadakis.

伊曼紐·帕帕達基斯。

Thank you, sir.

謝謝您，先生。

I'm sorry, I'm going to ask another question on Arexvy.

抱歉，我要問有關 Arexvy 的另一個問題。

How are you going to get to 3 billion peak?

怎樣才能達到30億的巔峰？

I mean, even with a modest degree of late revaccination in the US, it doesn't seem like we'll return to blockbuster territory in the USA.

我的意思是，即使美國有一定程度的後期重新接種疫苗，我們似乎也不會回到美國的重磅區域。

So is this really a statement about international potential?

那麼這真的是關於國際潛力的聲明嗎？

Or are we missing something on the US?

還是我們遺漏了一些關於美國的東西？

Or what are the assumptions that lead should you think we can get to 3 billion?

或者您認為我們可以達到 30 億的假設是什麼？

(multiple speakers) a question on Blenrep, maybe a more favorable topic.

（多個發言者）關於 Blenrep 的問題，也許是一個更受歡迎的話題。

Just talk to us about the timelines in the US are you anticipating priority review either out of the FDA's (inaudible) .

只需與我們談談美國的時間表，您是否預計會獲得 FDA 的優先審查（聽不清楚）。

Can you comment on the relaunch expectations commercially for next year?

您能否評論一下明年商業重啟的預期？

We've got a relatively modest set of consensus expectations.

我們有一套相對溫和的共識期望。

We'd love to hear what you think about those.

我們很想聽聽您對這些的看法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So Luke, I think you can pick on both of these.

所以盧克，我認為你可以選擇這兩個。

But I'm just going to reiterate very briefly, there are 64 million people that suffer from RSV on a seasonal basis. 14,000 ,15,000 people die every year in America.

但我只想簡單地重申一下，有 6400 萬人季節性感染 RSV。美國每年有 14,000 、15,000 人死亡。

This is a brand new vaccine with a cautious ACIP, but we are in their hands in terms of how and when they come back on revaccination, which we are very confident they will be considering the waning to below 50% in season three over time and extension in cohorts and the penetration because as Luke said, there isn't really good reason to expect this to be very different from flu over time, and we're still in the early days of that and international expansion.

這是一種全新的疫苗，ACIP 持謹慎態度，但他們如何以及何時重新接種疫苗，我們掌握在他們手中，我們非常有信心他們會考慮隨著時間的推移第三季的疫苗接種率下降到50% 以下，隊列的擴展和滲透率，因為正如盧克所說，沒有充分的理由認為隨著時間的推移，這種情況會與流感有很大不同，而且我們仍處於國際擴張的早期階段。

So Luke, I don't know if there's anything else you'd like to repeat on that one.

盧克，我不知道你是否還有什麼想重複的。

But we are being cautious in the near term, right?

但我們在短期內持謹慎態度，對嗎？

We're not (inaudible) that near term.

我們近期還沒有（聽不清楚）。

But Luke, I don't know if you want to add anything and then obviously, very ambitious for Blenrep.

但是 Luke，我不知道你是否想添加任何內容，顯然，Blenrep 非常雄心勃勃。

No.

不。

On Blenrep, I mean I think the, because we've said it all.

關於 Blenrep，我的意思是我認為，因為我們已經說了這一切。

I don't think it's any new.

我不認為這有什麼新鮮事。

I mean one thing I think that's important is there's this focus on the (inaudible) , but the difference between a multiyear vaccine and an annual vaccine is the volatility is much higher.

我的意思是，我認為重要的一件事是對（聽不清楚）的關注，但多年期疫苗和年度疫苗之間的區別在於波動性要高得多。

And I think what we need to concentrate on is the area under the curve, which has changed.

我認為我們需要關注的是曲線下的區域，它已經改變了。

In terms of Blenrep, I mean I think the market research, the expert feedback that we've got, I think there's an increasing respect for the profile of the product.

就 Blenrep 而言，我的意思是，我認為市場研究、我們得到的專家回饋，我認為人們越來越尊重產品的形象。

I think there's also a broader understanding of some of the challenges employing biospecifics, particularly around infection risk, concomitant infusions, admission, CRS, neurotox, et cetera.

我認為，人們對生物特異性技術面臨的一些挑戰也有了更廣泛的理解，特別是在感染風險、伴隨輸注、住院、CRS、神經毒素等方面。

And the DREAMM-7 and DREAMM-8 studies have been well received.

DREAMM-7和DREAMM-8研究受到好評。

I think the critical thing here is really supporting physicians on those first five patients around the infusion strategy, dose holds and also educating them to reassure the patient that efficacy is not sacrificed if they do have the whole dose.

我認為這裡最關鍵的事情是真正支持醫生對前五名患者的輸液策略、劑量保持，並教育他們向患者保證，如果他們確實服用了整個劑量，則療效不會受到影響。

So this trade-off, again, just being realistic about the characopathy and those elements and the actual impact on the patient, the flexibility around the dosing.

因此，這種權衡，再次，只是現實地對待性格病和這些因素以及對患者的實際影響，以及劑量的靈活性。

We know a lot more about this product now.

我們現在對該產品有了更多的了解。

And the opening opportunity in second line with the progression of CD38 into the first line.

隨著 CD38 進入第一線，第二線的開放機會也隨之而來。

So you add all those things up, plus we've gained a huge amount of experience clinically and also commercially as an organization over the years.

因此，將所有這些因素加起來，加上多年來我們作為一個組織在臨床和商業方面獲得了大量經驗。

I think the DREAMM-7 and DREAMM-8 designs are evidence of that as is the launch of

我認為 DREAMM-7 和 DREAMM-8 的設計就是證明，就像推出

(inaudible) .

（聽不清楚）。

So we're humble about it.

所以我們對此很謙虛。

We're careful.

我們很小心。

We're working with the experts, but I think we are increasingly well placed to do this product justice, subject to the FDA approving it.

我們正在與專家合作，但我認為我們越來越有能力公正地對待這款產品，前提是 FDA 批准它。

And I think also at the end of the year, if we're able to achieve survival as well, that will obviously support the product in that second line setting

我認為，到今年年底，如果我們也能夠生存下來，這顯然會支持該產品在二線環境中的發展

Richard Parkes.

理查·帕克斯.

Hi, thanks for taking my questions.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Firstly, I just like to push a little bit on the confidence in the Arexvy revaccination market because you seem very confident about that.

首先，我想稍微增強大家對 Arexvy 疫苗接種市場的信心，因為您似乎對此非常有信心。

But it looks like the decline in vaccine efficacy somewhat stabilized in the third year?

但看起來疫苗功效的下降在第三年就穩定了？

And it sounds like ACIP wasn't fully convinced by your revaccination immunogenicity data.

聽起來 ACIP 並沒有完全相信你的再接種免疫原性數據。

So just can you just underline why you're so confident about that?

那麼您能強調為什麼您對此如此有信心嗎？

And maybe what impact that would have on your peak sales assumption if that didn't materialize?

如果這沒有實現，也許會對您的高峰銷售假設產生什麼影響？

And then secondly, on Apretude.

其次，關於Apretude。

That launch looks like it's lost a little bit of momentum.

那次發布看起來失去了一點動力。

And could you just discuss what drives it from here and what the current market penetration is?

您能否討論一下是什麼推動了它的發展以及當前的市場滲透率是多少？

And are you thinking has evolved over contribution of (inaudible) to your long-acting sales target?

您是否認為已經超越（聽不清楚）對您的長期銷售目標的貢獻？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

So Tony, on revax and then Deborah please.

托尼，請收聽 revax，然後是黛博拉。

Yes.

是的。

So just quickly on revax, as you see the data particularly in the lower respiratory tract disease population show that there is a decline from Season one to Season three of 83% in Season one, two, I think, 48% in Season three.

因此，請快速了解REVAX，正如您所看到的數據，特別是下呼吸道疾病人群的數據顯示，從第一季到第三季，第一季下降了83%，我認為第二季下降了48%，第三季下降了48%。

Importantly, to answer your question with regards to trajectory, Richard, we also know that natural infection does not cause lifetime immunity for these mucosal infections.

重要的是，為了回答您關於軌蹟的問題，理查德，我們也知道自然感染不會導致這些黏膜感染的終身免疫力。

You don't see that.

你看不到這一點。

And so we think that the available evidence that data would suggest that revax will be required, and it will be between three and five years.

因此，我們認為現有證據表明數據表明需要進行 REVAX，並且需要三到五年的時間。

Additionally, take the opportunity to stress what we also see through that, and you'll see more data from us next year on boosting, but there is a clear trend.

此外，藉此機會強調我們也透過這一點看到了什麼，明年你會看到我們提供的更多關於提升的數據，但有一個明顯的趨勢。

But as again, is commonly the case in vaccines that as the time from prime to boost extends, the significance of the boost increases.

但同樣，疫苗中常見的情況是，隨著從初免到加強的時間延長，加強的重要性也會增加。

Thank you, Deorah.

謝謝你，黛奧拉。

Richard.

理查德.

So just to start by saying we're absolutely delighted by our performance in the quarter with the HIV franchise, 12% growth.

首先，我們對 HIV 專營權在本季的表現感到非常高興，成長了 12%。

And we've been double-digit growth each quarter throughout the year so far.

到目前為止，我們全年每個季度都實現了兩位數的成長。

So really happy with the way our trajectory on particularly our long acting injectables is progressing.

我們對我們在特別是長效注射劑方面的進展感到非常滿意。

But obviously, our own two drug regimens are also doing extremely well.

但顯然，我們自己的兩種藥物療法也表現得非常好。

Let's focus just on Apretude.

讓我們只關注Apretude。

So I think it's worth remembering that the GBP22 billion plus market value in HIV is about GBP20 billion for treatment and GBP2 billion for PrEP.

因此，我認為值得記住的是，HIV 領域 220 億英鎊以上的市場價值約為 200 億英鎊用於治療，20 億英鎊用於 PrEP。

So you normally expect big numbers in HIV because we are usually operating in the treatment space, but actually you've got to remember that this is a GBP2 billion market, which is growing relatively rapidly.

因此，您通常會期望愛滋病毒的數量很大，因為我們通常在治療領域開展業務，但實際上您必須記住，這是一個 20 億英鎊的市場，並且增長相對較快。

So between 10% and 15% at the moment in the US.

目前美國的比例在 10% 到 15% 之間。

So the growth is strong.

所以成長勢頭強勁。

The market is robust.

市場強勁。

And Apretude is doing well.

Apreude 的表現也不錯。

So we're seeing share continue to grow.

所以我們看到份額繼續增長。

We saw 95% growth in the quarter.

本季我們看到了 95% 的成長。

And actually, it's in line with our expectations.

事實上，這也符合我們的預期。

We are building a market here.

我們正在這裡建立一個市場。

So we're ensuring that physicians understand the safety, efficacy, tolerability of this exceptional prevention medicine.

因此，我們確保醫生了解這種特殊預防藥物的安全性、有效性和耐受性。

But at the same time, we're having to teach physicians as we develop the market around how to navigate Specialty pharmacy, buy and bill and the other kind of barriers that you find with injectables in the US health care market.

但同時，在開發市場時，我們必須教導醫生如何應對專業藥房、購買和計費以及美國醫療保健市場中註射劑所遇到的其他障礙。

And we are investing very strongly, and we're seeing really good breadth of prescribing increases, not just in Apretude actually but with Cabenuva as well.

我們正在大力投資，我們看到處方藥的增加範圍非常廣泛，不僅是在 Apretude 上，而且在 Cabenuva 上也是如此。

So my summary would be, there's still a long way to go in this market, both PrEP and treatment.

所以我的總結是，這個市場還有很長的路要走，無論是 PrEP 還是治療。

Long-acting injectables are really growing rapidly, are gaining share and driving our growth in a very positive way, which is why we've been able to deliver three quarters of double-digit growth this year.

長效注射劑確實成長迅速，正在獲得份額並以非常積極的方式推動我們的成長，這就是為什麼我們今年能夠實現四個季度兩位數的成長。

And obviously, we had a very strong performance, driven by the same things in '22 and '23 as well.

顯然，我們在 22 年和 23 年同樣的事情的推動下取得了非常強勁的表現。

So real confidence in our long-acting injectables, both this year and actually for next year as well and the pipeline coming forward.

因此，我們對今年和明年的長效注射劑以及即將推出的產品線充滿信心。

And the pipeline coming forward.

管道即將到來。

So obviously, we've got Q4 PrEP and treatment coming up.

顯然，我們即將進行第四季的 PrEP 和治療。

And then we've got every six months, which is progressing absolutely in line with our expectations, and we'll obviously come to talk more about that as data emerges.

然後我們每六個月就有一次，進展完全符合我們的預期，隨著數據的出現，我們顯然會更多地討論這一點。

Thank You.

謝謝。

I think one last question.

我想最後一個問題。

Peter Welford, Jefferies.

彼得‧韋爾福德，傑弗里斯。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I wouldn't, sorry, if we can just go back to Arexvy, I'm afraid.

抱歉，如果我們能回到阿雷克斯維，恐怕我不會。

Could we just talk a little bit about the ACIP decision?

我們可以簡單談談 ACIP 的決定嗎？

I'm just trying to understand here on the safety side of things.

我只是想了解一下安全方面的事情。

Because I guess the, it seems like it's a little difficult situation in the, obviously, the population to be able to make a better characterization of the GBS risk is relatively low given the low number of vaccinations.

因為我猜想，鑑於疫苗接種數量較少，顯然，能夠更好地描述 GBS 風險的人群相對較低，情況似乎有點困難。

And obviously, FDA already has the data with regards to the risk side of the equation, i.e., the number of deaths and hospitalizations for the 60 to 74.

顯然，FDA 已經掌握了有關風險方面的數據，即 60 至 74 歲的死亡人數和住院人數。

So it seems the only likely conclusion potentially is that there is a significant GBS risk eventually for that population, too.

因此，唯一可能的結論似乎是，該族群最終也存在重大的 GBS 風險。

So I guess I'm curious what you think, how you think more data for that population will potentially make a difference and what you can, I guess, provide incrementally to that to say, sway them on that population?

因此，我想我很好奇您的想法，您認為針對該人群的更多數據將如何潛在地產生影響，以及我想您可以逐步提供什麼來影響該人群？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So I think we'll finish up then with Tony's response on that.

所以我想我們將以托尼對此的回應來結束。

But just to reiterate, our confidence has been, as has been said by all of the team in the benefit, risk ratio of this vaccine considering the burden of disease, hospitalization and death at global scale.

但重申一下，正如所有團隊所說，考慮到全球範圍內的疾病、住院和死亡負擔，我們對這種疫苗的效益和風險比充滿信心。

Tony?

托尼？

Yes.

是的。

And Peter, let me just, so for me, the headline, as I said, (inaudible) , it was, first of all, the clear conclusion that the benefit risk for vaccination in the currently approved and recommended population was substantiated and it was substantiated by increasingly clear data on both the benefit and the risk associated with that population.

彼得，讓我直說，所以對我來說，正如我所說，（聽不清），首先，這是一個明確的結論，即在當前批准和推薦的人群中接種疫苗的益處風險得到證實，並且是與該群體相關的利益和風險的越來越清晰的數據證實了這一點。

In terms of, and again, let me stress that the FDA conclusion of GBS was it was rare with one and less case for, less than 10 cases, sorry, for 1 million individuals vaccinated.

再次強調，FDA 對 GBS 的結論是，對於 100 萬人接種疫苗的人來說，只有 1 例或更少的病例，抱歉，不到 10 例。

In the broader cases, what you will see is us bringing additional data related to vaccine effectiveness for the 60-plus population and immunogenicity in the 18-plus immunocompromised populations, particularly in those constitute the populations that are at greater risk of hospitalization

在更廣泛的情況下，您將看到我們提供與 60 歲以上人群的疫苗有效性和 18 歲以上免疫功能低下人群的免疫原性相關的更多數據，特別是那些住院風險較高的人群

Thanks, And is it also right to say, Tony, that if you account for frequency of vaccination, there's no difference here versus.

謝謝，托尼，如果你考慮到疫苗接種的頻率，那麼這裡與其他疫苗沒有什麼區別，這也是對的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

There was a comparison made on (inaudible) for flu, for example.

例如，對流感（聽不清楚）進行了比較。

And if you account for the frequency of vaccination and the fact that flu itself causes GBS, there's no significant difference in risk across those vaccinations.

如果考慮到疫苗接種的頻率以及流感本身導致 GBS 的事實，那麼這些疫苗接種的風險就沒有顯著差異。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

So thanks, everyone, for joining the call.

謝謝大家加入這次電話會議。

As you heard, we're delighted to be reconfirming our guidance for the year, another year of strong operating performance and also our confidence in the outlook for '26 and '31.

正如您所聽到的，我們很高興再次確認我們對今年的指導，這是另一個強勁營運業績的一年，也是我們對 26 年和 31 年前景的信心。

We look forward to catching up with you over coming days.

我們期待在未來幾天與您聯繫。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bye-bye

再見