高盛 (GS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded today, January 17, 2023. Thank you. Ms. Halio, you may begin your conference.

早安.我是凱蒂，今天將擔任本次電話會議的主持人。歡迎各位參加高盛2022年第四季財報電話會議。本次會議將於2023年1月17日進行錄音。謝謝。哈利奧女士，您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning. This is Carey Halio, Head of Investor Relations and Chief Strategy Officer at Goldman Sachs. Welcome to our fourth quarter earnings conference call. Today, we will reference our earnings presentation, which can be found on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.gs.com.

早安.我是高盛投資人關係主管兼首席策略長凱莉‧哈利奧。歡迎參加我們第四季財報電話會議。今天，我們將參考財報演示文稿，您可以在我們網站www.gs.com的投資者關係頁面找到該簡報。

Note information and forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures appear in the earnings release and presentation. This audiocast is copyrighted material of the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without our consent.

請注意，盈利報告和簡報中包含相關資訊、前瞻性陳述和非GAAP財務指標。此音訊廣播為高盛集團有限公司的版權所有，未經許可不得複製、轉載或重播。

I am joined by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon; and our Chief Financial Officer, Denis Coleman. Let me pass the call to David.

和我一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長大衛·所羅門，以及財務長丹尼斯·科爾曼。現在我把電話交給大衛。

Thanks, Carey, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us today. I'll begin with a review of our financial performance. Simply said, our quarter was disappointing and our business mix proved particularly challenging. These results are not what we aspire to deliver to shareholders. We generated revenues of $10.6 billion and net earnings of $1.3 billion and earnings per share of $3.32.

謝謝凱瑞，大家早安。感謝各位今天蒞臨。首先，我將回顧我們的財務表現。簡而言之，本季業績令人失望，我們的業務組合尤其具有挑戰性。這些結果並非我們希望為股東帶來的。我們實現了106億美元的營收，淨利為13億美元，每股收益為3.32美元。

After 9 straight quarters of double-digit returns, fourth quarter performance was certainly an outlier. Results were impacted by several near-term challenges given the difficult operating environment. On the revenue front, underwriting volumes remained extremely muted despite green shoots that appeared at the end of the third quarter. FICC and Equities activities -- activity levels dropped after a busy and volatile year for many of our clients, and our equity investment portfolio saw continued headwinds.

在連續九個季度實現兩位數回報之後，第四季的業績無疑是一個例外。鑑於艱困的經營環境，業績受到許多短期挑戰的影響。在收入方面，儘管第三季末出現了一些復甦跡象，但承保量仍然非常低迷。固定收益、大宗商品和股票業務－在經歷了繁忙且波動較大的一年後，許多客戶的業務活動有所下降，而我們的股票投資組合也持續面臨不利因素。

We also saw higher loan loss provision and expenses. While compensation expenses were down 15% for the year, quarterly expenses rose modestly versus the third quarter. We always strive to maintain a pay-for-performance culture. With revenues down, compensation was lower. That said, we also recognize that we operate in a talent-driven business, and we must continue to invest in our people whose dedication is critical to our world-class franchise.

我們也看到貸款損失準備金和相關費用增加。雖然全年薪資支出下降了15%，但季度支出較第三季略有上升。我們始終致力於維持績效導向的薪酬文化。由於收入下降，薪酬水準也隨之降低。即便如此，我們也意識到我們所處的行業以人才為主導，我們必須繼續投資於員工，他們的奉獻精神對我們世界一流的業務至關重要。

On our earnings call last July, we first spoke about the challenging operating environment and the proactive measures we were taking on expenses, including slowing hiring velocity and reducing certain components of our noncompensation costs. We have and continue to be incredibly focused on managing our financial resources, especially in light of the worse-than-expected backdrop in the fourth quarter.

在去年七月的財報電話會議上，我們首次談到了充滿挑戰的經營環境以及我們正在採取的積極措施來控制支出，包括放緩招聘速度和削減部分非薪酬成本。我們一直並將繼續高度重視財務資源的管理，尤其是在第四季情勢遠遜於預期的情況下。

Specifically, we reduced the size of our balance sheet, further optimized and reduced our RWA footprint and manage down our G-SIB score to hit our 3% target. We have also started firm-wide expense reduction efforts to offset inflationary pressures and rightsize the firm for the current environment.

具體而言，我們縮減了資產負債表規模，進一步優化並降低了風險加權資產（RWA）佔比，並將全球系統重要性銀行（G-SIB）評分降至3%的目標水準。此外，我們已啟動全公司範圍內的費用削減計劃，以抵消通膨壓力，並根據當前環境調整公司規模。

We made the difficult decision to conduct a 6% headcount reduction exercise earlier this month. As we said, we had paused our regular performance management-related reductions during the pandemic and also had a period of strong growth in headcount given the opportunity set in 2021. We feel deeply for the individuals that were impacted by these reductions. They are extremely dedicated and talented individuals, and we wish them the best.

本月初，我們做出了艱難的決定，裁減了6%的員工。正如我們之前所說，疫情期間我們暫停了常規的績效管理相關的裁員，並且由於2021年的發展機遇，員工人數也經歷了一段快速增長期。我們對受此次裁員影響的員工深表同情。他們都是非常敬業且才華橫溢的員工，我們衷心祝福他們一切順利。

Additionally, we are taking a number of strategic actions to help us reach our financial targets and create shareholder value. For instance, this quarter, we completed our reorganization, which will further strengthen our core businesses, help us scale our growth platforms and improve efficiency. This is an important and purposeful evolution of our strategic journey.

此外，我們正在採取一系列策略性舉措，以幫助我們實現財務目標並創造股東價值。例如，本季我們完成了重組，這將進一步強化我們的核心業務，幫助我們擴大成長平台規模並提高效率。這是我們策略發展歷程中的重要且意義深遠的一次演進。

We also narrowed our ambitions on our Consumer strategy and made some key decisions. We started a process to cease offering new loans on the Marcus platform, We will likely allow the book to roll down naturally, although we are considering other alternatives. In addition, we have postponed the launch of our checking product. At the right time in the future, we intend to offer checking to our Wealth Management clients.

我們也縮小了消費者策略的目標範圍，並做出了一些關鍵決策。我們啟動了停止在Marcus平台上提供新貸款的流程。我們可能會讓貸款業務自然減少，但也考慮其他方案。此外，我們也推遲了支票帳戶產品的推出。未來，在適當的時機，我們計劃向財富管理客戶提供支票帳戶產品。

For now, our priority is to strengthen our deposit franchise, card partnerships and GreenSky. Our narrowed approach will allow us to reduce our forward investment spend and rationalize expenses. We are very focused on developing a path toward profitability and platform solutions, and we'll provide more detail at our Investor Day next month. As you can see from our new segment reporting, we are committed to providing continued transparency for us -- for you to hold us accountable.

目前，我們的首要任務是加強存款業務、信用卡合作以及GreenSky平台。這種精簡的策略將有助於我們減少未來投資支出並合理化各項開支。我們正全力以赴地開發實現盈利和平台解決方案的路徑，並將在下個月的投資者日上提供更多細節。正如您從我們最新的分部報告中所見，我們致力於保持透明度，以便您監督我們的工作。

I want to spend a moment on the broader operating environment. The backdrop over the last year has been incredibly dynamic. There were headwinds we expected, like high inflation, but some we never thought we'd see, like the ongoing land war in Ukraine. There aren't many signs of widespread distress. Balance sheets and company fundamentals are relatively healthy, but it's clear that the outlook for 2023 remains uncertain.

我想花點時間談談更廣泛的經營環境。過去一年來，市場環境瞬息萬變。我們預料到了一些不利因素，例如高通膨，但也遇到了一些始料未及的挑戰，例如烏克蘭持續的內戰。目前還沒有太多跡象顯示市場出現普遍的困境。資產負債表和公司基本面都相對健康，但顯然，2023年的前景仍充滿不確定性。

In the U.S., Central Bank rate increases have started to have an impact on inflation, but they are also lowering the growth trajectory of the economy. And the labor market remains remarkably tight, with an estimated 1.7 job openings available for every unemployed American. Our clients are thinking a lot about how to navigate this complex backdrop. CEOs and Boards tell me they are cautious, particularly for the near term. They're rethinking business opportunities and would like to see more stability before committing to longer-term plans. Many firms have started preparing for tougher times, focusing on factors within their control.

在美國，央行升息已開始對通膨產生影響，但同時也減緩了經濟成長速度。勞動市場依然異常緊張，據估計，每位失業的美國人只有1.7個工作機會。我們的客戶正在認真思考如何應對這種複雜的情況。執行長和董事會成員告訴我，他們持謹慎態度，尤其是在短期內。他們正在重新評估商業機會，並希望在製定長期計劃之前看到市場更加穩定。許多公司已經開始為更艱難的時期做好準備，並將重點放在自身可控的因素上。

Taking a step back, I am proud of the significant progress we have made in our strategic evolution since Investor Day 2020. Despite a more challenged fourth quarter performance, we delivered for shareholders in 2022. We generated double-digit returns in a year where rapid monetary tightening and ongoing macro uncertainty drove significant market disruption, with both equity and fixed income markets falling for the first time in over 50 years.

回顧過去，我為我們自2020年投資者日以來在策略轉型方面取得的顯著進展感到自豪。儘管第四季業績面臨更多挑戰，但我們在2022年仍然為股東創造了回報。在貨幣政策快速收緊和持續的宏觀經濟不確定性導致市場劇烈動盪，股票和固定收益市場五十多年來首次下跌的這一年，我們仍然實現了兩位數的收益。

We grew management and other fees by 13% year-over-year and grew net interest income by 19%. We reduced our on-balance sheet alternative investments by $9 billion. We also returned $6.7 billion of capital in the form of dividends and share repurchases, and we grew our book value by 7%. This brings our book value growth since our first Investor Day to almost 40%, roughly twice as much as our next closest competitor.

我們管理費和其他費用年增13%，淨利息收入較去年同期成長19%。我們將資產負債表內的另類投資減少了90億美元。此外，我們以股利和股票回購的形式返還了67億美元的資本，而帳面價值增加了7%。自首次投資者日以來，我們的帳面價值成長率接近40%，約為最接近的競爭對手的兩倍。

That said, we remain focused on the work ahead of us, and we believe we have a lot to play for. As we go forward, we are executing on 3 key priorities we've laid out for the businesses: number one, growing management fees in our Asset & Wealth Management business; number two, maximizing wallet share and growing financing activities in our Global Banking & Markets business; number three, scaling platform solutions to deliver profitability.

儘管如此，我們仍專注於眼前的工作，並相信我們大有可為。展望未來，我們將著力推動為各項業務制定的三大關鍵優先事項：第一，提升資產及財富管理業務的管理費收入；第二，最大化全球銀行及市場業務的市場份額並拓展融資業務；第三，擴展平台解決方案以實現盈利。

We have a proven track record of navigating a wide range of operating environments, and we will continue to execute our long-term client-oriented strategy regardless of where we are in the cycle. We have the people in place around the world to serve our clients' broad range of needs with excellence, and we are operating from a position of strength with robust capital levels and a clear focus on the path forward.

我們擁有在各種經營環境下成功營運的卓越業績，無論處於經濟週期的哪個階段，我們都將繼續執行以客戶為中心的長期策略。我們已在全球範圍內配備專業人員，能夠卓越地滿足客戶的廣泛需求。憑藉著雄厚的資本實力和清晰的發展方向，我們正處於有利地位。

I remain optimistic about the future of Goldman Sachs and confident that we will continue to deliver for shareholders. We look forward to speaking more about this with all of you at our Investor Day on February 28.

我對高盛的未來仍然充滿信心，並相信我們將繼續為股東創造價值。我們期待在2月28日的投資者日上與各位進一步探討這些內容。

I'll now turn it over to Denis.

現在我把麥克風交給丹尼斯。

Thank you, David. Good morning. Let's start on Page 2 of the presentation. In 2022, we generated net revenues of $47.4 billion, net earnings of $11.3 billion and earnings per share of $30.06. As David highlighted, we have implemented our organizational changes, which form the basis for our earnings presentation today.

謝謝大衛。早安.我們從簡報的第二頁開始。 2022年，我們實現了474億美元的淨收入、113億美元的淨利和30.06美元的每股盈餘。正如大衛所強調的，我們已經實施了組織架構調整，這些調整構成了我們今天財報演示的基礎。

Turning to performance by business, starting on Page 3. Global Banking & Markets generated revenues of $32.5 billion for the year, down 12% as higher FICC revenues were more than offset by a steep decline in investment banking fees versus record results last year. The exceptional performance of our Global Banking & Markets business over the last 3 years, including the market share gains we have generated, has served a strong ballast for firm-wide performance.

接下來，我們來看各業務部門的業績表現，請從第3頁開始。全球銀行及市場業務全年營收為325億美元，年減12%，原因是固定收益、外匯及大宗商品（FICC）業務收入的成長被投資銀行手續費收入的大幅下滑所抵消，而去年該業務的業績創下歷史新高。過去三年，全球銀行及市場業務的卓越表現，包括我們所取得的市場份額增長，為公司整體業績提供了強有力的支撐。

In the fourth quarter, investment banking fees fell 48% year-over-year, driven by a significant decline in both equity and debt underwriting as issuance volumes remain muted amid continued market uncertainty. Advisory revenues, however, were $1.4 billion, the third highest in our history, rising 45% quarter-over-quarter on higher completed deal volumes.

第四季度，受市場持續不確定性導致發行量低迷，股權和債券承銷業務均大幅下滑的影響，投資銀行業務費用較去年同期下降48%。然而，諮詢業務收入達到14億美元，創歷史第三高，季增45%，主要得益於交易量增加。

For 2022, we maintained our #1 league table position in completed M&A as we have for 23 of the last 24 years, and we rank second in equity and equity-related underwriting. We also ranked second in high-yield debt underwriting, up from #3 last year. Our backlog fell quarter-on-quarter on lower levels of activity but remain solid, particularly in advisory.

2022年，我們在已完成併購交易領域持續保持排名第一的地位，過去24年中有23年蟬聯該位置；在股權及股權相關承銷領域，我們位列第二。此外，我們在高收益債券承銷領域也排名第二，較去年的第三名有所提升。由於業務活動減少，我們的積壓訂單環比下降，但整體依然穩健，尤其是在諮詢業務方面。

That being said, clients are focused on stability and financial conditions, pushing out the timing of transactional activity. While we expect investors will need more certainty before financing markets reopen more broadly, we are seeing some positive signs of activity, particularly in investment-grade markets, which have had a strong start to the year in both the United States and Europe.

儘管如此，客戶目前仍關注市場穩定性和財務狀況，因此推遲了交易活動的時間。我們預計，在融資市場全面重新開放之前，投資者需要更多的確定性，但我們已經看到一些積極的跡象，尤其是在投資等級市場，美國和歐洲的投資等級市場今年開局強勁。

FICC net revenues were $2.7 billion in the quarter, up 44% year-on-year. In intermediation, we saw strength in rates and commodities amid elevated levels of client engagement, catalyzed by increased Central Bank activity and rate volatility and improved market-making conditions. In FICC financing, we saw increases in secured lending driven by higher balances. Full year FICC revenues of $14.7 billion rose 38%.

本季固定收益、外匯及大宗商品（FICC）業務淨收入為27億美元，較去年同期成長44%。在中介業務方面，受央行活動增加、利率波動加劇以及做市環境改善等因素的推動，利率和大宗商品市場表現強勁，客戶參與度也顯著提高。在FICC融資業務方面，擔保貸款業務成長主要得益於貸款餘額的增加。全年FICC業務收入為147億美元，年增38%。

Equities net revenues were $2.1 billion in the quarter, down 5% year-on-year. The year-over-year decline in intermediation revenues was driven by lower levels of client activity, particularly in derivatives, after strong engagement levels throughout the year.

本季股票淨收入為21億美元，較去年同期下降5%。中介業務收入較去年同期下降的主要原因是客戶活躍度降低，尤其是在衍生性商品交易方面，而先前全年客戶活躍度一直很高。

Financing revenues of $964 million were relatively resilient despite a decline in prime balances as clients took risk off throughout the quarter. Across FICC and Equities, financing revenues were up 20% in 2022, consistent with our strategic priority to grow client financing activities.

儘管客戶在本季普遍規避風險，導致優質貸款餘額下降，但融資收入仍保持相對穩健，達9.64億美元。 2022年，固定收益、外匯和大宗商品（FICC）以及股票業務的融資收入成長了20%，這與我們拓展客戶融資業務的策略重點相符。

Moving to Asset & Wealth Management on Page 5. For 2022, revenues of $13.4 billion were down 39% year-over-year as a steep decline in revenues from equity and debt investments offset an additional $1 billion of management and other fees and a strong increase in private banking and lending revenues.

翻到第 5 頁，進入資產與財富管理部分。 2022 年，由於股權和債務投資收入大幅下降，抵消了額外的 10 億美元管理費和其他費用以及私人銀行和貸款收入的強勁增長，公司收入為 134 億美元，同比下降 39%。

Fourth quarter management and other fees of $2.2 billion were up 10% year-over-year. Full year management and other fees were $8.8 billion, putting us well on track to hit our $10 billion target in 2024. Fourth quarter private banking and lending net revenues reached a record $753 million, up 77% year-over-year due to higher deposit spreads and higher lending and deposit balances.

第四季管理費及其他費用為22億美元，年增10%。全年管理費及其他費用為88億美元，使我們有望在2024年實現100億美元的目標。第四季私人銀行及貸款業務淨收入達到創紀錄的7.53億美元，年增77%，主要得益於存款利差擴大以及貸款和存款餘額增加。

Equity investments produced net revenues of $287 million, driven by $270 million of gains on our $13 billion private equity portfolio and roughly $500 million in operating revenues and gains related to CIEs, partially offset by $485 million of net losses related to investments in our $2 billion public portfolio. Debt investments revenues were $234 million, including net interest income of $360 million.

股權投資淨收入為2.87億美元，其中130億美元的私募股權投資組合收益為2.7億美元，CIE相關營運收入和收益約為5億美元，部分被20億美元上市投資組合的淨虧損4.85億美元所抵銷。債務投資收入為2.34億美元，其中包括3.6億美元的淨利息收入。

Moving on to Page 6. Total firm-wide assets under supervision ended the quarter at a record $2.5 trillion, driven by market appreciation as well as strong net inflows across fixed income and liquidity products.

接下來是第 6 頁。受市場升值以及固定收益和流動性產品強勁淨流入的推動，公司整體監管資產總額在本季末達到創紀錄的 2.5 兆美元。

Let's now turn to Page 7, where I will review a new page in our presentation focused on our alternatives franchise. Alternative AUS totaled $263 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, driving $492 million in management and other fees for the quarter and $1.8 billion for the year. We remain on track to reach our $2 billion target in 2024.

現在我們翻到第7頁，我將在此介紹我們簡報中關於另類投資業務的新內容。截至第四季末，另類資產管理業務總額達2,630億美元，當季管理費及其他費用收入為4.92億美元，全年累計收入為18億美元。我們仍有望在2024年實現20億美元的目標。

Gross third-party fundraising was $15 billion for the quarter and totaled $72 billion for the year. Third-party fundraising since Investor Day stands at $179 billion. The table on the bottom left shows our on-balance sheet alternative investment portfolio, which totaled $59 billion.

本季第三方募款總額為150億美元，全年累計募款總額為720億美元。自投資者日以來，第三方募款總額已達1,790億美元。左下角表格顯示了我們資產負債表內的另類投資組合，總額為590億美元。

Despite the challenging environment, we reduced on-balance sheet investments by $9 billion in 2022, of which $2 billion was in the fourth quarter. We remain committed to our strategy to reduce balance sheet density and migrate our alternatives business to more third-party funds.

儘管面臨嚴峻挑戰，我們在2022年仍減少了90億美元的資產負債表內投資，其中20億美元是在第四季減少的。我們將繼續致力於降低資產負債表密度，並將另類投資業務轉移到更多第三方基金。

I'll turn to Platform Solutions on Page 8. Full year revenues were $1.5 billion, more than double versus 2021. Full year losses of $1.7 billion were driven by $1.7 billion of provisions as we built reserves to reflect $8 billion of loan growth across the portfolio. We also incurred $1.8 billion in expenses as we continue to build out and run these businesses.

我將在第8頁介紹平台解決方案業務。全年營收為15億美元，比2021年成長了一倍以上。全年虧損17億美元，主要原因是為因應投資組合中80億美元的貸款成長而提列了17億美元的撥備。此外，由於我們持續拓展和經營這些業務，也產生了18億美元的支出。

This included over $200 million of transaction and integration-related costs driven by the GreenSky and GM card portfolio acquisitions. We expect these costs to also impact 2023 results, though at a lower level, and decline materially over subsequent years. As David said, our #1 priority for this segment is to reach profitability, and we look forward to providing you with further details at our Investor Day next month.

這其中包括因收購 GreenSky 和通用汽車信用卡業務組合而產生的超過 2 億美元的交易和整合相關成本。我們預計這些成本也會對 2023 年的業績產生影響，但程度會較低，並在隨後的幾年中大幅下降。正如 David 所說，我們該業務板塊的首要任務是實現盈利，我們期待在下個月的投資者日上向您提供更多詳情。

On Page 9, firm-wide net interest income of $2.1 billion in the fourth quarter was up 2% relative to the third quarter due to higher rates and increased loan balances. Our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $179 billion, modestly higher versus the third quarter, reflecting growth in collateralized lending and credit cards. Our provision for credit losses was $972 million.

第9頁顯示，由於利率上升和貸款餘額增加，該公司第四季淨利息收入為21億美元，較第三季增加2%。截至季末，我們的貸款總額為1,790億美元，較第三季略有成長，主要反映了抵押貸款和信用卡業務的成長。我們的信貸損失準備金為9.72億美元。

For our wholesale portfolio, provisions were driven by impairments and portfolio growth. The overall credit quality of our wholesale lending portfolio remains resilient. In relation to our retail portfolio, provisions were driven by continued portfolio growth, net charge-offs and a worsening of our baseline scenario. We are seeing early signs of credit deterioration that are in line with our expectations. We anticipate further pressure in 2023, given the vintage and nature of our portfolio.

就我們的批發貸款組合而言，撥備主要受減損和組合成長的影響。我們批發貸款組合的整體信貸品質依然穩健。就我們的零售貸款組合而言，撥備主要受組合持續成長、淨沖銷以及基準情境惡化的影響。我們已觀察到信貸惡化的早期跡象，這與我們的預期相符。鑑於我們組合的存續時間和性質，我們預計2023年將面臨更大的壓力。

Let's turn to expenses on Page 10. Quarterly operating expenses were $8.1 billion. Total operating expenses for the year were $31.2 billion, down 2%. Compensation expenses fell 15% despite a 10% increase in headcount and were partially offset by higher noncompensation expenses. The increase was primarily related to acquisitions, transaction-based costs and continued investments in technology. In addition, client-driven market development costs were higher following lower levels during the pandemic.

讓我們翻到第10頁查看費用狀況。季度營運費用為81億美元。全年營運總費用為312億美元，下降2%。儘管員工人數增加了10%，但薪資支出卻下降了15%，部分被更高的非薪資支出所抵銷。非薪酬支出的成長主要與收購、交易成本以及持續的技術投資有關。此外，在疫情期間成本較低之後，以客戶需求為導向的市場開發成本也有所上升。

As previously discussed, we are actively engaged in expense mitigation efforts. This includes targeted reductions across communications and technology spend, professional fees and advertising costs as well as the recent headcount reduction exercise. We expect that the impact of these actions will become more fully reflected in our results over time, remain highly focused on operating efficiency and are committed to our 60% efficiency ratio target as the right place to run the firm.

如前所述，我們正積極採取措施降低成本，包括有針對性地削減通訊和技術支出、專業服務費和廣告費用，以及近期實施的裁員計畫。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，這些措施的影響將更加充分地體現在我們的業績中。我們將繼續高度重視營運效率，並致力於實現60%的效率比率目標，因為我們認為這是公司營運的理想狀態。

Turning to capital on Slide 11. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 15.1% at the end of the fourth quarter under the standardized approach, up 80 basis points sequentially. This represents a 130 basis point buffer to our new capital requirement of 13.8%. In the fourth quarter, we returned $2.4 billion to shareholders, including common stock repurchases of $1.5 billion and common stock dividends of $880 million.

請參閱第11頁投影片，以了解資本狀況。根據標準化方法計算，截至第四季末，我們的普通股一級資本適足率為15.1%，較上季成長80個基點。這相當於比我們新的13.8%的資本要求高出130個基點。第四季度，我們向股東返還了24億美元，其中包括15億美元的普通股回購和8.8億美元的普通股股利。

Based on our capital levels at the end of the quarter, we started 2023 with a strong capital position, enabling us to support our clients and return excess capital to shareholders. As it relates to our funding plan based on current expectations, we intend for 2023 issuance to run significantly below 2022 levels, though we will remain dynamic with respect to business needs and market opportunities.

根據季度末的資本水平，我們以穩健的資本狀況開啟了2023年，這使我們能夠更好地支持客戶並向股東返還剩餘資本。就我們基於目前預期制定的融資計畫而言，我們預計2023年的債券發行量將遠低於2022年的水平，但我們會根據業務需求和市場機會靈活調整發行規模。

In conclusion, despite the challenging operating environment in 2022, we delivered double-digit returns for shareholders, returned $6.7 billion of capital and made material progress on our strategic initiatives to better serve clients and strengthen and diversify the firm. We remain focused on executing on our strategic priorities and creating value for our shareholders, and we look forward to seeing many of you at our upcoming Investor Day in February.

總之，儘管2022年經營環境充滿挑戰，我們仍為股東實現了兩位數的收益，返還了67億美元的資本，並在戰略舉措方面取得了實質性進展，從而更好地服務客戶，增強公司實力並實現多元化發展。我們將繼續專注於執行策略重點，為股東創造價值，並期待在二月的投資者日與各位相聚。

With that, we'll now open up the line for questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr 提出的問題。

So given the capital RWA and expense actions that you've already taken, if 2023 is a little bit better in banking but it's kind of the same atmosphere we've been in, because it feels like it's lingering, can you all get closer to your return targets this year? I know it's very difficult in this backdrop but what I'm getting at is do we need Investment Banking to be a lot better to get there? Or have the actions you've taken start closing the gap?

鑑於你們已經採取的資本風險加權資產（RWA）和費用控制措施，如果2023年銀行業的情況略有好轉，但整體氛圍仍然與之前類似（感覺這種狀況還會持續），那麼你們今年能否更接近預期回報目標？我知道在這種背景下實現目標非常困難，但我想問的是，我們需要投資銀行業務大幅改善才能達到目標嗎？還是說你們已經採取的措施已經開始縮小差距？

So thanks, Glenn, and I appreciate the question. Obviously, an improved capital markets environment would certainly help in that direction. We talk about our targets in a normalized environment. One thing I just want to make sure people are focused on is we have to do better in Asset Management. This certainly has been a part of our strategy over the last 3 years is to reduce our balance sheet in Asset Management.

謝謝格倫，我很感謝你的提問。顯然，資本市場環境的改善肯定會對此有所幫助。我們討論的是正常環境下的目標。我想強調的是，我們必須在資產管理方面做得更好。過去三年，我們一直致力於縮減資產管理方面的資產負債表規模，這無疑是我們策略的重要組成部分。

And we've made real progress on that over the last 3 years, but we still have a very significant Asset Management balance sheet, larger than we'd like to have. We reduced it by $9 billion this past year, and we intend to move forward. But given the disruption in asset prices and the density of that balance sheet, it's not surprising when you have $32 billion of capital allocated to that segment.

過去三年，我們在這方面取得了實際進展，但我們的資產管理資產負債表仍然非常龐大，遠遠超出我們的預期。去年我們削減了90億美元，並計劃繼續推進。但考慮到資產價格的波動以及該資產負債表的規模，320億美元的資本配置在該領域也就不難理解了。

And if you look at the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter, it earned 0, even with some businesses in there that are highly profitable. I don't think that's normal. I don't think our expectation is that continues exactly the same way. And so I think a combination of some normalization in capital markets activities and a more balanced environment with respect to the Asset Management balance sheet certainly would have a big impact.

如果你看一下第四季度，即使其中包含一些盈利能力很強的業務，第四季度的盈利也為零。我認為這不正常。我們也不認為這種情況會持續下去。因此，我認為資本市場活動的正常化以及資產管理資產負債表更加平衡的環境，肯定會產生重大影響。

I'd highlight last year, we way outperformed the peer average ROE by about 900 basis points because of kind of the massive outperformance of that balance sheet, given all the stimulus, and a bunch of that reversed, and we're just more sensitive to that.

我想重點指出，去年我們的淨資產收益率比同業平均高出約 900 個基點，這主要得益於資產負債表的優異表現，考慮到所有的刺激措施，但其中許多因素都發生了逆轉，所以我們對這種情況更加敏感。

I mean things I might add, Glenn, is in addition to our business mix on the forward, I think the reason why we're taking action with respect to our headcount footprint and some of our noncompensation expenses is to drive efficiency even further.

我的意思是，格倫，除了我們未來的業務組合之外，我認為我們之所以對員工人數和一些非薪酬支出採取行動，是為了進一步提高效率。

And as you point out, with the capital build that we have as at the beginning of the year, we're in a pretty flexible position in terms of how we can deploy that either in support of attractive opportunities within the business and/or returning incremental capital to shareholders.

正如你所指出的，憑藉我們年初累積的資本，我們在如何運用這些資金方面處於相當靈活的地位，既可以支持業務中有吸引力的機會，也可以向股東返還額外的資本。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then maybe staying up to 50,000. Transaction Banking is good, but it's unfortunately a small revenue base. Consumer, maybe music to some investors' ears, is being deemphasized.

好的，我明白了。或許可以維持在5萬左右。交易銀行業務不錯，但可惜收入基數太小。消費者業務——這或許會讓一些投資者高興——正在被弱化。

So I guess my question is where's -- your goal is to build a more durable firm, and I share that goal. Where do you think that comes from going forward if some of the pieces are either small or being deemphasized from the past strategy?

所以我想問的是──你們的目標是打造一家更永續發展的公司，我也認同這個目標。如果某些環節規模較小或在過去的策略中被弱化，你們認為未來實現這一目標的途徑是什麼？

Well, I think, Glenn, the big thing in that, and it's always been a big part of it, is the shift from a balance sheet-intensive Asset Management business to a client-oriented fee-based business. Our organic growth across our Asset Management business on a relative basis was still good in 2022 when you look broadly across the industry. We continue to grow our management fees in the Asset Management business. We're continuing to grow our wealth business.

格倫，我認為，其中最關鍵的一點，也是一直以來最重要的一點，就是從以資產負債表為主導的資產管理業務轉向以客戶為導向的收費型業務的轉變。從整個產業來看，2022年我們資產管理業務的內生成長依然良好。我們的資產管理業務管理費收入持續成長，財富管理業務也持續發展。

Our wealth business overall grew nicely during the course of 2022. And so it's that mix change, less balance sheet intensity, growth in Asset & Wealth Management, continued financing growth in our core Global Banking & Markets business, which you've seen and continue to grow, and then getting these platforms that we have to operate profitably, which we believe we can do. We believe they're good businesses at scale, but they're in a different stage of their development.

2022年，我們的財富管理業務整體成長良好。這得益於業務結構的調整，資產負債表壓力的降低，資產及財富管理業務的增長，以及核心全球銀行及資本市場業務融資的持續增長（您已​​經看到並將繼續看到這一增長），還有我們旗下平台實現盈利運營——我們相信我們能夠做到這一點。我們認為這些平台規模化後會發展得很好，但它們目前仍處於不同的發展階段。

Those things should make the business more resilient, and that's not inconsistent with the strategy we laid out 3 years ago, and we will amplify again next month at Investor Day. What I think was an outlier for sure in this environment is the massive quick swing in asset prices and the impact that our capital markets-heavy and balance sheet-intense business had, of course, with a drag from some of the investments we're making in other things.

這些措施應該能增強公司的韌性，這與我們三年前製定的策略並不矛盾，我們將在下個月的投資人日上再次強調。我認為，在當前環境下，資產價格的劇烈快速波動無疑是個例外，而我們這種高度依賴資本市場和資產負債表密集型業務所受到的影響，當然也受到我們在其他領域投資的拖累。

We'll take our next question from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將回答來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala 提出的問題。

I guess maybe, David, just sticking to that, as you make the Asset Management business less dense in terms of balance sheet consumption, how do we think about the ROTE target you put out last year? Is that still achievable within the 3-year time frame that you had laid out? Or does that get pushed out given the work that needs to be done and in a world where Consumer's being deemphasized?

我想，David，就此打住，隨著你降低資產管理業務在資產負債表上的佔用密度，我們該如何看待你去年提出的ROTE目標？這個目標還能在你設定的三年期限內達成嗎？還是說，考慮到需要完成的工作以及消費業務日益邊緣化的現狀，這個目標會被推遲？

I think, candidly, that it depends on the environment. An environment with massive swing in asset prices continues, we'll push it out. If that simply normalizes, then the overall economic picture of the firm, in addition to the work we're doing on the expense side that we've gotten focused on, will show a very, very different picture. I'm not going to guess on how that will play out. But again, I'd amplify that I don't think what we saw in 2022 was normal. And certainly, if you go back and look at 15 years of history, it wasn't.

坦白說，我認為這取決於環境。如果資產價格劇烈波動的環境持續下去，我們會延後實施。如果情況恢復正常，那麼公司的整體經濟狀況，加上我們目前在費用控制方面所做的努力，將會呈現出截然不同的景象。我不會預測最終結果如何。但我再次強調，我認為2022年的情況並不正常。當然，回顧過去15年的歷史，情況也確實不正常。

Okay. And I guess just as a follow-up in terms of growth in Asset Management, Wealth Management, significant asset price dislocations. Does that create some M&A opportunities when we think about inorganic growth in those businesses? Or for the time being is the expectation that most of this is going to be organic?

好的。我想就資產管理和財富管理領域的成長，以及資產價格的顯著波動，再補充一點。當我們考慮這些業務的非內生性成長時，這是否會創造一些併購機會？或者就目前而言，預計大部分成長將來自內生性成長？

I think at the moment, we're extremely focused on, in 2023, executing on the decisions we made to invest in our platform. And moving forward from here, I do think that in the future, there still could be inorganic opportunities to accelerate the journey in Asset & Wealth Management. But certainly, this year, we're focused on the execution. We made an acquisition in Asset Management last year. We want to integrate NNIP. We want to move forward with that. So I think this year, we'll be focused on execution.

我認為目前，我們2023年的首要任務是落實先前所做的平台投資決策。展望未來，我認為未來仍有可能透過非有機成長來加速我們在資產和財富管理領域的發展。但可以肯定的是，今年我們的重點是執行。去年我們在資產管理領域完成了一項收購。我們希望整合NNIP，並推進相關工作。所以我認為今年我們將專注於執行。

We'll take our next question from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak 所提出的問題。

So David and Denis, I wanted to start off with a question just on the provision outlook. Admittedly, the loan loss provision came in higher than we had anticipated. And I was hoping you could just speak to how much of it was growth math-related versus deterioration in the macro? And given some of the planned actions you're going to take for that business, how should we think about like a normalized level of loan growth and provision expectation that we should expect going forward?

大衛和丹尼斯，我想先問一個關於撥備前景的問題。誠然，貸款損失撥備高於我們的預期。我想請你們談談，其中有多少是成長數學因素導致的，又有多少是宏觀經濟惡化造成的？考慮到你們計劃針對該業務採取的一些措施，我們應該如何看待未來貸款成長和撥備的正常預期水準？

So let me help with some color as it relates to provisions, particularly in the fourth quarter. So order of magnitude, the component of that build attributable to growth was about 50%, net charge-offs about 25%, and the balance attributable to our scenario.

那麼，讓我來詳細解釋一下撥備情況，特別是第四季的情況。大致來說，撥備增加的部分中，約50%是由於成長所致，約25%是淨沖銷，其餘部分則歸因於我們的假設情境。

I think what you can see in the build of the provisions over the course of the fourth quarter, and we do expect some of this to continue over the course of 2023, is that we began the on-balance sheet originations in our point-of-sale lending platform, GreenSky. And so that obviously brings with it an upfront reserve build. So that's something that initiated over the balance of this past year and will continue through the following year.

我認為，從第四季度撥備的增加可以看出，而且我們預計其中一部分將在2023年持續，這說明我們在銷售點貸款平台GreenSky上啟動了資產負債表內的貸款發放。因此，這顯然會帶來前期撥備的增加。這項工作始於去年剩餘時間，並將持續到明年。

Got it. And maybe just for a follow-up on capital. As it relates to the discussion tied to Glenn's question, I was hoping you could speak to how your scenario planning for Basel IV, Basel III end game. I recognize we don't have a proposal yet, but certainly, it has significant implications for future returns you can generate. You're running with a healthy level of cushion at the moment, but just wanted to understand how you see it impacting your various businesses. What planned actions can you take to maybe mitigate some of the pain?

明白了。關於資金方面，我想再補充一點。這與格倫提出的問題有關，我希望您能談談您針對巴塞爾協議IV和巴塞爾協議III最終實施情況的規劃。我知道目前還沒有具體的方案，但毫無疑問，這會對您未來的收益產生重大影響。您目前擁有充足的資金儲備，但我想了解您認為這些方案會如何影響您的各項業務。您計劃採取哪些措施來減輕這些影響？

Sure. Fair question. It's on everybody's mind. As you note, we don't yet have the details, but we give it a lot of thought. We've taken a number of steps in terms of building out our modeling capabilities to make sure as and when we do get an actual rule that we'll be in a position to respond quickly to that. We do have a long-standing track record of responding to changes to regulatory guidance.

當然。問得好。大家都在關心這個問題。正如您所說，我們目前還沒有具體細節，但我們一直在認真考慮。我們已經採取了一系列措施來提升我們的建模能力，以確保一旦有正式規則出台，我們就能迅速做出反應。我們一直以來都有應對監管指南變化的良好記錄。

You can see over the course of the fourth quarter across a number of our financial resources that we were able to maneuver them very, very quickly to build capital and change our RWA footprint, given our view of the environment and some strategic decisions there. So we're standing by for more detail on the rule, but confident that when we get it, we'll be able to manage accordingly.

從第四季的情況可以看出，我們能夠迅速調動多項財務資源，累積資本並調整風險加權資產（RWA）結構，這得益於我們對市場環境的判斷以及一些策略決策。因此，我們正在等待有關該規則的更多細節，但我們相信，一旦獲得相關信息，我們將能夠做出相應的應對。

We'll take our next question from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將回答摩根士丹利的貝齊·格拉塞克提出的問題。

Two questions. One follow-up on the Consumer business. I heard you on the Marcus pullback. You're going to see [some] originating there. Does that give you more room to lean into growth and we should expect acceleration in the partner card, GreenSky, those pieces that you're keeping? Or is this Marcus pullback going to feed either capital increase or the ability to lean in, in other business lines like the ISG business?

兩個問題。一個是關於消費者業務的後續問題。我聽說您提到Marcus的業務縮減。您會看到一些增長源自於那裡。這是否意味著您有更多空間來推動成長，我們是否可以期待您保留的合作夥伴信用卡、GreenSky等業務加速發展？或者，Marcus的業務縮減會帶來資本增加，或是讓您增加其他業務線（例如ISG業務）的投資？

Sure. Betsy, it's Denis. I'll start with that. So as we indicated, we're going to cease the originations in under Marcus lending, and then furthermore, expect for that portfolio actually to roll off or we may pursue other alternatives. That should free up a bunch of financial resources. We're continued within the overall Asset & Wealth Management segment where the deposit business is resonant within the private banking and lending line. That remains a strategic priority for the firm, and we've experienced very good growth there.

當然。貝齊，我是丹尼斯。我先從這方面說起。正如我們之前提到的，我們將停止透過馬庫斯貸款公司進行的貸款業務，並且預計該貸款組合會自然到期，或者我們會尋求其他替代方案。這應該能釋放出大量的財務資源。我們將繼續專注於整體資產與財富管理業務，其中存款業務在私人銀行和貸款領域發揮重要作用。這仍然是公司的策略重點，而且我們在該領域取得了非常不錯的成長。

That business is achieving more and more scale, so that will remain an ongoing focus. I think once we have reduced some of the resourcing allocated to Marcus lending, we'll continue to narrow the focus of our ambitions and our investment spend. And within the Platform Solutions business, we're now down to 3 different businesses: Transaction Banking, the cards platform and our point-of-sale lending business, GreenSky. And our focus is really on just narrowing to drive those businesses across the segment to profitability.

這項業務規模越來越大，因此我們將繼續專注於它。我認為，一旦我們減少了分配給Marcus貸款業務的部分資源，我們將繼續縮小我們的發展目標和投資範圍。在平台解決方案業務方面，我們現在只剩下三個不同的業務：交易銀行、信用卡平台和我們的POS貸款業務GreenSky。我們的重點其實是縮小業務範圍，推動該板塊內的各個業務獲利。

Okay. Then separate question just on the expenses in this quarter. I know you had the action of the headcount reduction. Is there a severance embedded in this quarter that we should strip out because, obviously, it's not ongoing? Or does that hit 1Q? Maybe you could speak to how we should think about that.

好的。那麼，關於本季的支出，我還有一個問題。我知道你們進行了裁員。這其中是否包含遣散費，我們需要將其剔除，因為很明顯，這筆費用並非持續性支出？還是說這筆費用計入了第一季？您能否就此談談我們應該如何考慮這個問題。

Sure. Thanks, Betsy. Because we communicated the reductions in 2023, any associated severance expense associated with those reductions will be 2023 expenses.

當然。謝謝你，貝齊。因為我們在2023年就宣布了裁員計劃，所以與這些裁員相關的任何遣散費都將計入2023年的費用。

We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

接下來，我們將回答來自富國銀行的麥克梅奧提出的問題。

I have one. Dave, I think it's your birthday today, right? You announced that a few years ago.

我也有一個。戴夫，我想今天是你的生日，對吧？你幾年前宣布過。

It is my birthday, and I couldn't be happier to be on this call with you. But thank you. Thank you for that.

今天是我的生日，能跟你通話我真是太開心了。謝謝你，真的非常感謝。

Well, since it's your birthday, do you want the positive question or the negative question first?

既然今天是你的生日，你想先聽肯定的問題還是否定的問題？

I want -- I'm happy to take any question. Any question that you have, Mike. You know that. We're happy to take questions, both positive and tough. I mean it wasn't a great quarter, so I don't expect all the questions to be easy.

我樂意回答任何問題。麥克，你有什麼問題都可以問。你知道的。我們樂意回答各種問題，無論是積極的還是棘手的。我的意思是，這個季度業績並不理想，所以我並不指望所有的問題都很容易。

Well, I mean, it is concerning in terms of the reorg, I mean we'll get more at the Investor Day. And just a comment, I hope you give us more data. Here we have 3 new sectors, and you only gave us the prior 4 quarters and the prior 2 years without much detail. So I hope you give us more ahead. But the question is, you present the firm differently, but will the firm actually be run differently other than the more narrow focus on Consumer?

嗯，我的意思是，就重組而言，這確實令人擔憂，我們會在投資者日上了解更多。另外，我希望你們能提供更多數據。這次新增了三個業務板塊，但你們只提供了過去四個季度和過去兩年的數據，而且細節很少。所以我希望你們能提供更多資訊。但問題是，你們對公司的描述有所不同，但除了更專注於消費領域之外，公司的運作方式真的會有所不同嗎？

Yes. And so I appreciate that. And 2 comments. First, just on the transparency and information comment, I think this management team, Mike, over the last 4.5 years has been super focused on increasing the transparency of Goldman Sachs, and we remain focused on that.

是的，我很感激。還有兩點要補充。首先，關於透明度和資訊公開的問題，我認為麥克，在過去的四年半里，管理團隊一直非常注重提高高盛的透明度，我們也將繼續致力於此。

If you have certain feedback on things you'd like to see, et cetera, we really welcome that, and Carey will reach out to you, and we'll take that feedback. But we're focused on giving our investors more and more and creating the right kind of transparency around what we're doing.

如果您對某些方面有任何回饋意見，例如希望看到的內容等等，我們非常歡迎，凱瑞會與您聯繫，我們會認真考慮這些回饋。但我們目前的重點是為投資者提供更多價值，並提高我們工作的透明度。

Second, on the evolution and the move to this, what I'd say, and this has been something that's been a journey that we started a number of years ago, but the firm is now organized and presented externally the same way we run it internally. And that, candidly, is a difference than the way Goldman Sachs has been during my tenure at the firm.

其次，關於公司發展演變和轉型，我想說的是，這其實是我們幾年前就開始的工作，但現在公司對外展現的組織架構和運作方式與我們內部的運作方式完全一致。坦白說，這與我在高盛任職期間公司以往的運作方式截然不同。

In terms of our core business of banking and markets, there are synergies that we've been driving as these businesses cooperate that we think we can now get more out of in our client orientation across our broad franchise that this organization of those businesses together really helps.

就我們銀行和市場的核心業務而言，隨著這些業務的合作，我們一直在推動協同效應，我們認為現在我們可以從這些協同效應中獲得更多，從而更好地服務於我們廣泛的業務部門的客戶，而這些業務的整合確實很有幫助。

I highlight that we feel great about the performance of those businesses since our Investor Day. It's long forgotten, but when we did our Investor Day, back in 2020, nobody believed that we could get the ROE of the markets business above 10%. That was a big question on the minds of investors. And we look now at our combined banking and markets business.

我想強調的是，自投資者日以來，我們對這些業務的表現感到非常滿意。雖然大家可能已經忘記了，但在2020年舉辦投資者日時，沒有人相信我們能夠將市場業務的淨資產收益率（ROE）提升到10%以上。這曾是投資人非常關心的問題。而現在，我們檢視一下我們合併後的銀行和市場業務。

This business, we think, is a leader. It outperforms in terms of its market share and outperforms in terms of its returns relative to competitors, and we continue to grow it and continue to stay laser-focused on the client experience and also the returns and the performance of that business. We also think there continues to be opportunity to grow our financing business there, and we're very, very focused on that.

我們認為這項業務處於領先地位。無論從市場佔有率還是回報率來看，它都優於競爭對手。我們將繼續發展這項業務，並始終專注於提升客戶體驗、回報和績效。同時，我們也認為該領域的融資業務仍有成長空間，我們對此高度重視。

In Asset & Wealth Management, we've worked hard to bring a number of businesses together into an integrated franchise so we can really have transparency and focus on our ability to grow management fees and drive performance and serve more clients in that business. And as we've said over the last few years, reduce the balance sheet intensity of that. And we're on a journey.

在資產與財富管理領域，我們一直致力於將多個業務整合為統一的特許經營體系，從而真正實現透明化，專注於提升管理費收入、推動業績成長，並為更多客戶提供服務。正如我們過去幾年一直強調的，降低資產負債表的負擔。我們正在朝著這個目標邁進。

Would I like it to be further along? Yes. If it was further along, there would have been less volatility, particularly in the context of this year in the fourth quarter. But we continue -- that's something we laid out 3 years ago, and we continue to move at that.

我希望它進展得更順利嗎？是的。如果進展得更順利，波動性就會小得多，尤其是在今年第四季這種情況下。但我們仍在繼續——這是我們三年前製定的計劃，我們將繼續朝著這個方向前進。

The change strategically of a narrowing of our focus on certain things in Consumer business, I think, is a change. We continue to feel very good about the deposit platform and the contribution it makes. We think our partnership with Apple will provide meaningful dividends for the firm over time. We think GreenSky is a good business that can be accretive, but the platforms are in a different stage of development than our other businesses.

我認為，我們在消費者業務方面策略性地縮小關注範圍，專注於某些特定領域，這本身就是一種轉變。我們仍然對存款平台及其貢獻充滿信心。我們相信，與蘋果的合作將在未來為公司帶來可觀的回報。我們認為GreenSky是一項有潛力且能帶來增值業務的優秀企業，但其平台的發展階段與其他業務有所不同。

They're small in the overall scale of Goldman Sachs, but we think there are benefits to that for the firm. We'll communicate more as we move forward around that, but we're making progress and we'll continue to run that narrow focus in a way that we think can drive profitability. So that's a high-level response. I don't know if there's something else you want me to drill into, but that's a high-level response.

它們在高盛整體規模中佔比很小，但我們認為這對公司是有利的。隨著工作的推進，我們會就此進行更多溝通，但我們正在取得進展，並將繼續專注於我們認為能夠提升獲利能力的領域。以上是簡要說明。我不知道您是否還有其他想讓我深入探討的地方，但以上就是簡單說明。

Yes, the follow-up is more specific. I mean, look, you said it's a disappointing quarter. Your returns are well below where you want them to be, and variable revenues and variable costs, not so much your efficiency ratios go the other direction.

是的，後續問題更具體。我的意思是，你看，你說這個季度令人失望。你的回報率遠低於預期，而且可變收入和可變成本（而不是你的效率比率）都在下降。

So I mean I think investors would appreciate some detail on some of the benefits of what you might get on the expense side. Okay, you're scaling back Consumer. As I asked you last quarter, you said you were losing money, so maybe you lose less money. The headcount reduction should allow you to save money.

所以，我認為投資人會希望了解你們在支出方面可能獲得的一些好處。好的，你們正在縮減消費者業務。正如我上個季度問的，你們說你們在虧損，所以也許這次虧損會減少。裁員應該能幫你們節省開支。

So can you ballpark the benefits to expenses from the moves in Consumer and the headcount reductions? And along those lines, now that you've moved capital well above the regulatory and your own firm's target buyback, so cost and buyback, kind of what to think about for 2023.

那麼，您能否大致估算一下消費者業務調整和裁員對支出帶來的效益？此外，鑑於您已將資本轉移至遠超監管機構和公司自身目標回購額的水平，那麼成本和回購，以及2023年需要考慮的事項，您有什麼建議？

Sure, Mike, let me take that. So unpacking a couple components. So we exercised a headcount reduction earlier this year. Approximately 3,200 employees left the firm. The run rate expense associated with that group was approximately $475 million, and we expect the benefit in 2023 north of $200 million associated with that. Beyond that, we have a series of noncompensation expense initiatives.

好的，麥克，讓我來解釋一下。我先來分析幾個方面。今年早些時候，我們進行了裁員，大約有3200名員工離開了公司。與這部分員工相關的年度支出約為4.75億美元，我們預計到2023年，這將帶來超過2億美元的收益。除此之外，我們還有一系列非薪資支出方面的措施。

We're setting out guardrails for our business leaders to drive more efficient levels of noncompensation spend. The narrowing of the focus in consumer is important. There are a number of ways in which we could have chosen to expand the offering and capabilities of that, but the focus is now narrow. And then finally, as you identify, we have more flexibility with respect to capital deployment, which we intend to take advantage of.

我們正在為業務領導者制定指導方針，以推動非薪酬支出達到更有效率的水平。聚焦消費者領域至關重要。我們原本可以選擇多種方式來擴展這方面的產品和服務，但現在我們的重點已經縮小。最後，正如您所指出的，我們在資本部署方面擁有更大的靈活性，我們打算充分利用這一點。

We'll take our next question from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

接下來，我們將回答來自瑞銀集團的布倫南·霍肯提出的問題。

I just wanted to follow up on some of those questions for Mike. And just really be honest, kind of surprised to not hear that there were restructuring and severance charges in the fourth quarter, just given how elevated the expenses were. So I guess, can you provide a little bit of color on the inflexibility, revenues down 20% for the full year? And I understand that, of course, markets are competitive, but the positioning of comp in 2021 was -- it was a remarkable year.

我想就麥克提出的幾個問題再補充一些。說實話，考慮到第四季支出如此之高，我有點驚訝竟然沒有聽到重組和遣散費用。所以，能否詳細解釋為何全年營收下降20%，以及公司缺乏彈性？我當然明白市場競爭激烈，但2021年的業績定位──那一年確實非同尋常。

Some of it even identified or segregated as special, and therefore shouldn't be expected to repeat. So the -- was the discipline fully there? Are you doing enough on comp? You have reiterated the focus on efficiency, but the results here in -- I get it. Nobody is buying Goldman today for 2022 results, but still, the results seem to set up sort of a challenging entry point for the beginning of the year.

其中一些甚至被認定或歸類為特殊情況，因此不應預期會再次發生。那麼——紀律是否到位？你們在薪酬方面做得足夠嗎？你們重申了對效率的重視，但目前的結果——我明白。現在沒人會期待高盛2022年的業績，但即便如此，這些結果似乎也為年初的買進創造了一個頗具挑戰性的時機。

So Brennan, a couple of questions. As for the reasons to take severance expense in 2023, that's the accounting rules with respect to timing of our communication to those employees. So that's what explains the time frame in which the expense is going to be booked. As it relates to compensation expense, variable expense flexibility in the fourth quarter, I guess I would point out a couple of things.

布倫南，我有幾個問題。關於2023年提列遣散費的原因，這是會計準則規定的，需要與相關員工溝通。所以，這就是費用入帳的時間範圍。至於薪資支出，以及第四季可變費用的靈活性，我想指出幾點。

One, the overall comp and benefit expense were down 15%. We had grown headcount by 10% additionally. And when you -- that's over $2.5 billion of less compensation and benefit expense, so it's a meaningful number. And if you look at the components of our employee base, we have a very large number of people that earn relatively less money, are impacted by inflation and are really important to the overall operation and delivery of our firm on behalf of our clients.

首先，整體薪資福利支出下降了15%。同時，我們的員工人數也增加了10%。這意味著薪資福利支出減少了超過25億美元，這是一個相當可觀的數字。如果我們分析員工組成，就會發現我們有大量員工收入相對較低，容易受到通貨膨脹的影響，但他們對公司整體運作以及代表客戶提供服務至關重要。

And we have relatively fewer employees that are higher earning employees, face clients and generate revenue, and we were able to reduce the compensation substantially there in line with the performance. But ultimately, it's a balance. And we have excellent people. We depend on them to deliver for clients.

我們高收入員工（直接面對客戶並創造收入的員工）相對較少，因此我們能夠根據業績大幅降低他們的薪酬。但歸根結底，這需要找到平衡點。我們擁有優秀的人才，我們依賴他們為客戶提供優質服務。

The market for talent remains really robust, and we had to strike the right balance between taking down that variable expense in respect of our performance while maintaining the franchise to make sure that we're in the position that we can deliver for clients and shareholders in 2023 and beyond. Certainly, we can have brighter opportunity sets on the forward, and we want to make sure that we're positioned to capture that.

人才市場仍然強勁，我們必須在降低業績相關的變動成本和維持公司營運之間找到合適的平衡點，以確保我們能夠在2023年及以後繼續為客戶和股東創造價值。當然，未來我們可能會有更多機遇，我們希望確保自己能夠抓住這些機會。

Okay. All right. Denis, I appreciate that. This one might end up being moved, but I just don't want to confirm it. I was spending some time yesterday looking at previous disclosures of J-curve expectation and whatnot, but it seems as though exiting Marcus and the tone down, should we not even be thinking about a J-curve for the consumer business?

好的。好的。丹尼斯，我明白。這件事最終可能會被擱置，但我不想確認。我昨天花了一些時間研究之前關於J曲線預期之類的披露信息，但看起來，隨著​​Marcus的退出和業務規模的縮減，我們是不是根本就不應該考慮消費者業務的J曲線了？

Is that not a consideration here any longer? Because it does seem as though the cross through from the breakeven even ex provision has been a lot longer than expected. So should we just forget about that chart given the pivot? Or does that still remain part of the consideration?

現在這不再需要考慮了嗎？因為從損益平衡點到扣除撥備的過渡期似乎比預期要長得多。鑑於目前的轉折點，我們是否應該忽略那張圖表？還是這仍然是需要考慮的因素？

So a couple of things I would point out. As people would have seen in the earnings release this morning, the Platform Solutions segment on a quarter-over-quarter basis actually had reduced operating expenses. So we remain really focused on continuing to drive at the expense of these platforms in aggregate, and we expect to derive a lot of benefit at scale.

有幾點要說明。正如大家今天早上在財報中看到的，平台解決方案部門的營運費用較上季實際上有所下降。因此，我們仍然專注於繼續推動這些平台整體的發展，並期望從中獲得規模效益。

But as we've discussed and you'll observe, we also continue to build provisions as we scale some of those activities. And so our focus remains singularly on driving towards profitability of this segment, but there will continue to be a period of time during which we lose money until we reach that point of ultimate profitability. And we do look forward to trying to help people understand and map out that progression across the various businesses within that segment at Investor Day.

但正如我們之前討論過的，您也會看到，隨著部分業務規模的擴大，我們也在持續提列準備金。因此，我們始終專注於推動該業務板塊實現盈利，但在最終實現盈利之前，我們仍將經歷一段虧損期。我們期待在投資者日上，幫助大家理解並整理該業務板塊下各業務的發展歷程。

We'll take our next question from Devin Ryan with JMP Securities.

接下來，我們將回答來自 JMP Securities 的 Devin Ryan 提出的問題。

Great. I guess just first one to zero in on Transaction Banking here in platforms. $325 million for Transaction Banking and other in 2022 is up 50% year-over-year. So you guys have really had great growth from scratch just a couple of years ago, but still obviously immaterial.

太好了。我猜你們是第一個專注於平台交易銀行業務的人。 2022年交易銀行及其他業務的收入為3.25億美元，年增50%。所以你們從幾年前的零基礎發展至今，確實取得了巨大的成長，但顯然目前來看，這個數字仍然微不足道。

So I just want to talk a little bit about how you feel like progress is going in that part of the business. Can this get to a multibillion-dollar business just doing kind of what it's already doing? I know you just launched in Europe there. Really just trying to think about kind of the execution road map for that part of the business.

所以我想簡單談談您對這部分業務進展的看法。如果繼續保持目前的模式，它有可能發展成為數十億美元的企業嗎？我知道你們最近剛在歐洲推出服務。我主要是想了解這部分業務的執行路線圖。

Sure. Thanks for that question. Now we're very pleased with the progress of the transaction banking business, and it's a business that has particular benefits as we scale activities on it. We have our tech platform up and running. We continue to grow our clients on the platform. They unanimously continue to give us the feedback that it is a very differentiated and attractive platform to be part of. And we have taken that business, as you say, from its inception to larger scale.

當然。謝謝你的提問。目前我們對交易銀行業務的進展非常滿意，隨著業務規模的擴大，這項業務也展現出獨特的優勢。我們的技術平台已經上線運行，客戶數量也持續成長。客戶一致回饋，認為這是一個非常獨特且極具吸引力的平台。正如你所說，我們已經將這項業務從最初的雛形發展壯大到如今的規模。

We think there's a lot of potential for that business on the forward. And we're very focused, at this point in time, in continuing to drive deposit balances, continue to drive our customer count, further penetrate. As you mentioned, our international expansion continues. We've opened in our fifth country. We now have increasing capabilities to serve clients across the world. There are true benefits to the network effect of a business like this with global reach, and we continue to see very, very good opportunities for this business.

我們認為這項業務未來發展潛力大。目前，我們的重點是持續提升存款餘額和客戶數量，進一步拓展市場。正如您所提到的，我們的國際擴張仍在繼續。我們已經在第五個國家開設了分支機構。我們現在擁有越來越強大的能力，可以為全球客戶提供服務。像這樣擁有全球影響力的業務，其網路效應確實能帶來許多益處，我們也持續看到這項業務的巨大發展機會。

Okay. Great. A follow-up here just on the market's financing opportunity. So that's already obviously been a nice part of the story for Goldman. What do you need to do to grow financing further? Is it just a lot of the same kind of blocking and tackling? Or are there specific things you could point to that could drive kind of another step function there?

好的，太好了。接下來我想問市場融資機會的問題。顯然，這對高盛來說已經是一個不錯的進展。為了進一步拓展融資業務，你們需要做些什麼？是不是只需要繼續沿用之前的那些基礎工作？還是說有一些具體的措施可以推動融資業務實現新的飛躍？

And then just kind of more near term, you talked about prime brokerage balances being down and declining through the quarter. Has that changed at all, just to start this year with risk appetite that's maybe a bit better today than through most of the fourth quarter?

然後，就近期而言，您提到主經紀商的資金餘額下降，並且在整個季度持續下滑。今年年初，市場風險偏好是否有改變？目前的風險偏好是否比第四季的大部分時間都好一些？

Yes. A couple of comments I would make. So I think as it relates to the FICC financing, we have a very good opportunity set in front of us. The progress that we've made with the client franchise and our market shares, and given the overall backdrop and the availability of financing in the world right now, our clients continue to come to us.

是的。我有幾點要補充。就固定收益、外匯和大宗商品（FICC）融資而言，我認為我們面前有一個非常好的機會。鑑於我們客戶群和市場份額的穩定成長，以及當前全球融資環境和融資管道的現狀，我們的客戶仍然會選擇我們。

And given the capital position that we sit with at the beginning of the year, we have capacity to fuel incremental financing activities in the FICC business. On the equity side of the equation, obviously, asset markets moved around quite severely, particularly in the end of the year, which drives prime brokerage balances. But as you know, we are also working very hard to reduce our financial resource footprint, particularly our G-SIB level.

鑑於年初的資本狀況，我們有能力為固定收益、外匯和大宗商品（FICC）業務的增量融資活動提供支援。在股票方面，資產市場波動劇烈，尤其是在年底，無疑會影響主經紀業務的資金餘額。但如您所知，我們也在努力減少財務資源佔用，特別是全球系統重要性銀行（G-SIB）的持股水準。

That brought with it significant RWA reductions. And it was not really the environment that we were pushing on growth, certainly in the fourth quarter. I think as we turn the page on a new year, there is lots of opportunity for us to continue to drive our equity financing activities, and we have less constraints given that we've now achieved the 3% G-SIB target.

這帶來了顯著的風險加權資產（RWA）下降。而且，尤其是在第四季度，當時的環境並不適合我們推動成長。我認為，隨著新年的到來，我們有很多機會繼續推進股權融資活動，而且鑑於我們已經實現了3%的全球系統重要性銀行（G-SIB）目標，我們面臨的限制也更少了。

We'll take our next question from Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將回答來自傑富瑞集團的丹‧範農所提出的問題。

I wanted to expand upon the new Slide 7. And as you look at the different buckets and asset classes, how much of these funds are evergreen and open or are going through periodic fund raises and closings? And I was hoping you could maybe provide some context on what the fundraising has been for subsequent funds, meaning the size increase that you've typically seen for second or third funds from the previous one, to give us a sense of the momentum you're seeing in that business?

我想就新的第七張投影片做些補充。當您查看不同的基金類別和資產類型時，這些基金中有多少是常青基金且仍在運作，又有多少是定期募資和關閉的？我希望您能介紹一下後續基金的募款情況，例如，您通常觀察到的第二期或第三期基金的規模比前一期增長了多少，以便我們了解您目前在該領域的業務發展勢頭。

Sure. So we always have a very, very broad portfolio of funds. And we've been in this investing business for a number of decades, and it's one of the contributors to our position as the #5 largest active asset management firm in the world. And across the portfolio of different funds, we have some extremely mature businesses.

當然。所以我們一直擁有非常廣泛的基金組合。我們從事投資業務已有數十年，這也是我們成為全球第五大主動型資產管理公司的重要因素之一。在我們不同的基金組合中，也涵蓋了一些非常成熟的業務。

Our GS Capital Partners, equity investing business, our mezzanine funds, some of our loan funds. We have multiple mature businesses that are frequently deploying successfully and then going back to raise new monies and continue to support sort of the franchises that we have in that channel.

我們的GS Capital Partners是一家股權投資公司，旗下還有夾層基金和部分貸款基金。我們擁有多家成熟的企業，這些企業經常成功拓展業務，然後再次籌集新資金，繼續支持我們在該通路的現有業務。

And we continue to diversify and expand our offering and open up new strategies in response to what we see are pockets for client demand. So as we think about the overall opportunity set, we have a global, broad and deep investing platform that has offerings for many different types of investors, many of which are very, very mature in terms of their track record and some of which are newer.

我們持續拓展業務範圍，並根據客戶需求的不同領域，推出新的投資策略。因此，從整體投資機會來看，我們擁有一個全球化、覆蓋範圍廣且深度深厚的投資平台，能夠滿足各類投資者的需求，其中許多產品在業績記錄方面都非常成熟，也有一些是新興產品。

Okay. And then just following up on the earlier question around kind of the FICC and trading backdrop. It sounds like you're through kind of the optimization of RWAs, but maybe can you talk about where you see, on the broader intermediation side, the backdrop -- maybe the backdrop today and maybe where you see market share opportunities into the rest of the year.

好的。接下來我想繼續探討一下先前關於固定收益、大宗商品和貨幣（FICC）交易背景的問題。聽起來您已經完成了風險加權資產（RWA）的優化，但您能否談談在更廣泛的中介領域，您認為當前的市場背景如何？以及您認為今年剩餘時間有哪些市佔率成長機會？

Sure. So we continue to focus on market share. Market share data lags, but through the third quarter of last year, it shows that we continued to grow market share in those businesses, sales and trading. So that remains a very, very core focus of the firm. We continue to make progress, and we think we can make incremental progress.

當然。所以我們繼續專注於市場佔有率。市佔率數據雖然落後，但去年第三季的數據顯示，我們在銷售和交易等業務領域的市佔率持續成長。因此，這仍然是公司非常核心的關注點。我們不斷取得進展，並且相信我們能夠取得持續的進步。

One of the attractive things about that business for us is that we have a number of different business lines, which have enabled us to perform across a variety of environments. The last year, given what happened with rate normalization and energy markets around the world, were a particular tailwind to the interest rate products business, the commodities business.

對我們而言，該業務的吸引力之一在於我們擁有多個不同的業務線，這使我們能夠在各種不同的環境下開展業務。鑑於去年全球利率正常化和能源市場的狀況，利率產品業務和大宗商品業務尤其受益。

Meanwhile, we had softer performance in credit, mortgages and some of the equity intermediation activities. Certainly, if the new issue debt underwriting markets come back online as early indications on the investment-grade side of things suggest and if the equity underwriting activities are to open up, there's a lot of activity that takes place with investors as they position in advance of and after new offerings that we should be able to capture, given the investment that we've made in the client franchise.

同時，我們在信貸、抵押貸款和部分股權中介業務方面表現疲軟。當然，如果新發行債券承銷市場如投資等級債券市場早期跡象所示那樣恢復正常，並且股權承銷活動也得以開放，那麼投資者在發行前後進行倉位佈局的活躍度將會很高，鑑於我們對客戶群的投資，我們應該能夠把握住這些機會。

So I can't predict exactly where activity will come from 2023. Certainly, some of it may be a continuation of those areas that were active in 2022, but it's quite possible that certain activities that were softer in '22 could rotate and become more relevant in 2023.

因此，我無法準確預測 2023 年的活動會在哪裡出現。當然，其中一些活動可能是 2022 年活躍領域的延續，但也很有可能某些在 2022 年較為平緩的活動會在 2023 年發生轉變，變得更加重要。

We'll take our next question from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們將回答來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納提出的問題。

You mentioned continued interest in Asset & Wealth Management deals kind of over time. It sounds more like bolt-on -- but I guess just are you more open-minded towards maybe a transformational deal as we think out, not necessarily this year, but just in the next couple of years?

您提到您對資產和財富管理的交易一直保持著濃厚的興趣。這聽起來更像是小規模的補充——但我想問的是，您是否對未來幾年內可能出現的變革性交易持更開放的態度？不一定是今年，而是未來幾年？

I mean, to date, you've -- what I would characterize, I think most people had characterized, you've piecemealed some deals. You've done some organic expansion and mixed results in different areas. But just thoughts on maybe more openness to something transformational down the road.

我的意思是，到目前為止，你們——我想大多數人也會這麼認為——都是零零散散地達成了一些交易。你們也進行了一些自然擴張，但不同領域的結果卻是喜憂參半。不過，我想你們或許應該在未來採取更開放的心態，進行一些變革性的嘗試。

I think we've been asked this question. I appreciate the question. We've been asked it a bunch over time. I think in certain businesses like Asset & Wealth Management, there are significant things that could meaningfully accelerate the platform. We have the fifth largest active asset manager in the world now that we've stood up all the businesses inside Goldman Sachs.

我想我們已經被問過很多次這個問題了。我很感謝這個問題。這些年來，我們確實被問過很多次。我認為在資產和財富管理等某些業務領域，有一些重要的因素可以顯著加速平台的發展。隨著高盛內部所有業務的逐步完善，我們現在擁有全球第五大主動型資產管理公司。

And so that scale is real, and there certainly could be opportunities to increase that scale. And certainly, there are opportunities in wealth for us to do things that are more significant. I would say that the bar to do those things is extraordinarily high. There are not a lot of opportunities out there necessarily to do it.

所以，這種規模是真實存在的，而且肯定有機會擴大規模。財富也為我們提供了更多機會，讓我們做一些更有意義的事情。但我認為，要做到這一點，門檻極高。機會並不多。

Certainly, over the last 5 years, the prices have been eye-popping, maybe we're in a different environment where, well, that will normalize. But we're always open to things that we think can strengthen Goldman Sachs. But also as somebody that's been an M&A banker for a significant part of my career, I know the bar to do that, the cultural issues, the integration issues, the bar has to be very, very high.

當然，在過去五年裡，股價確實高得驚人，或許我們現在所處的環境不同了，股價最終會回歸正常水準。但我們始終對任何能夠增強高盛實力的措施持開放態度。同時，身為一名在併購領域深耕多年的銀行家，我也深知併購的門檻有多高，包括文化差異、整合問題等等，這些都必須達到非常非常高的水準。

So I'd say we're always open, but at the moment, our focus is on executing on the plate of opportunities we have in front of us, and we think we can drive good returns, good book value growth, good performance for our shareholders as we look forward in the coming few years with what we have on our plate.

所以我想說，我們始終保持開放的態度，但目前，我們的重點是把握眼前的機會，我們相信，憑藉我們目前掌握的機會，在未來幾年裡，我們可以為股東帶來良好的回報、良好的賬面價值增長和良好的業績。

We'll take our next question from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

接下來，我們將回答來自加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德·卡西迪提出的問題。

David, in your opening comments, you gave us your 3 priorities of growing management fees in the Asset & Wealth Management business, maximizing the wallet share and growing financing activities in Global Banking & Markets and then scaling the platform. In the number two, maximizing the wallet share. Can you share with us where are you today with the wallet share, both in investment banking and markets? And how are you pursuing to grow that over the next couple of years?

大衛，你在開場白中提到了三大優先事項：提高資產及財富管理業務的管理費、最大化客戶錢包份額、拓展全球銀行及市場融資業務以及擴大平台規模。關於第二點，即最大化客戶錢包份額，你能否分享一下目前你在投資銀行和市場業務的客戶錢包份額情況？以及你計劃如何在未來幾年進一步提升這一份額？

Yes. So we -- you can take a look at our performance in these businesses, and you can see that the performance is quite strong. A couple of things I'll point to. Even in this quarter's performance, you can look at our relative M&A revenue performance, you can look at our relative FICC performance and even our equities performance in what's been a tough quarter. The relatives look pretty good.

是的。您可以看看我們在這些業務中的業績，就會發現業績相當強勁。我這裡要指出幾點。即使是本季度，您也可以看看我們併購收入的相對錶現、固定收益、大宗商品（FICC）的相對錶現，甚至是我們股票業務在本季度這個充滿挑戰的時期中的表現。這些相對指標看起來都相當不錯。

We set out 3 years ago, and this was a big structural change. We had never really thought about client market shares in our markets business. We had always thought about them in our investment banking business. And we really -- we brought that ethos into the markets business. And I know everyone on this call has heard us talk about how 3 years ago, we set out to say there are 100 clients that contribute meaningfully to our FICC and Equities businesses.

三年前，我們著手進行這項重大的結構性變革。在此之前，我們從未真正考慮過市場業務中的客戶市場份額，而我們一直關注的是投資銀行業務。我們確實將這種理念引入了市場業務。我知道在座各位都聽我們說過，三年前，我們開始著手確定有100家客戶對我們的固定收益、外匯和股票業務做出了重要貢獻。

And we are top 3 with only 44 of them. We are now top 3 with 77 of those top 100. And now we have shifted the focus to really look at, okay, top 3, but why aren't we 1 and 2? What are the number of clients that we can be #1 and #2 with? And we think there's more room that we can drive on wallet share by really focusing in FICC and Equities on that #1 and #2 position.

我們之前只有44家客戶名列前三，現在在前100名中，我們佔據了77家。現在，我們把重點轉移到真正關注前三名，但為什麼我們沒能佔據第一和第二的位置？我們能爭取到多少客戶的第一和第二？我們認為，透過真正專注於固定收益、貨幣及大宗商品（FICC）和股票領域，爭取第一和第二的位置，我們在客戶錢包份額方面還有更大的提升空間。

In banking, the wallet share has really come from footprint growth. That footprint grows candidly has been a little bit expensive when there's been 0 capital markets revenue, because that footprint growth does tilt toward capital markets activity, but we think that will serve us well if you take a 3- or a 5-year view looking forward.

在銀行業，客戶份額的成長主要來自業務覆蓋範圍的擴大。坦白說，在資本市場收入為零的情況下，業務覆蓋範圍的擴張成本略高，因為這種擴張確實更側重於資本市場活動。但我們認為，從未來3到5年的角度來看，這將對我們有利。

So again, there's a lot of attention paid to some of the things that we're investing in. The core of the firm is very strong. Those wallet shares are strong but we still see more opportunity, and we're laser-focused on continuing to execute on it. And I don't think there's any business in investment banking and markets that is as strong and powerful as this business, so we'll continue to focus on strengthening it as we move forward.

所以，我們再次強調，我們非常關註一些我們正在投資的項目。公司的核心實力非常強勁，市場佔有率也很穩固，但我們仍然看到更多機會，並且正全力以赴地推進這些機會的實現。我認為在投資銀行和市場領域，沒有其他業務能像我們一樣強大，因此我們將繼續致力於鞏固和加強它。

Very good. And then as a follow-up on the shift in strategy in the Consumer business, you've been very clear, obviously, on how you're positioning this going forward. I may have missed this, so I apologize. But what went wrong? When you go back to when you guys started to move into these businesses 3 years ago or so, I know Marcus deposits has been around longer than that. But when you look back on what you were hoping to do and how it turned out, what went wrong?

很好。接下來，我想問關於消費者業務策略轉變的問題。您顯然已經非常明確地闡述了未來的發展方向。我可能錯過了一些信息，對此我深表歉意。但是，究竟出了什麼問題呢？回想一下，大約三年前你們開始涉足這些業務的時候（我知道Marcus存款業務的歷史更悠久），回顧一下你們最初的設想和最終的結果，究竟哪裡出了問題？

Well, I think there are a bunch of things that went right, and there were some things that did not go well. I think we executed well on some things that we didn't execute on others. But the simple thing that I would phrase, Gerard, and I think it's a fair question, is we tried to do too much too quickly. And of course, in the environment that we're in, it's hard to go back when we started in that strategy 6 years ago.

嗯，我認為有很多事情進展順利，也有一些事情進展不順利。有些事情我們執行得很好，有些事情則不然。但傑拉德，我想簡單概括一下，而且我認為這個問題問得好，那就是我們試圖在短時間內完成太多事情。當然，在我們所處的環境下，很難回到六年前開始實施那項策略的時候。

We obviously built the deposit business, the loan business, and we talked about a much broader platform. And I think we came to the conclusion that there were some changes. One of the big changes that's affected the pace of the ability to do this and it's different in scaling things like this is CECL is a big change. CECL changed the curve on growing these lending businesses at scale from scratch. So we've had to adjust to that. The regulatory environment has also changed over the course of the last couple of years.

我們顯然已經建立了存款業務和貸款業務，並且討論過建立一個更廣泛的平台。我認為我們最終得出結論，需要進行一些調整。其中一個影響我們業務拓展速度的重大變化，也是此類業務規模化發展的挑戰，就是CECL（預期信用損失準則）的實施。 CECL徹底改變了從零開始大規模發展貸款業務的模式。因此，我們不得不做出相應的調整。此外，監管環境在過去幾年也發生了變化。

But I think it became clear to us early in 2022 that we were doing too much, was affecting our execution. I think we probably, in some places, haven't had all the talent that we've needed to execute the way we've wanted. We're making adjustments on that, but by narrowing down the 3 core things that we're going to focus on that we actually think are good businesses that can be accretive to the firm, I think we've got it in a place now where we can create a more cogent path forward. And so that's what we're doing.

但我認為，在2022年初，我們就意識到我們做得太多了，影響了執行力。我認為，在某些方面，我們可能缺乏足夠的人才來實現我們想要的目標。我們正在對此進行調整，但透過縮小範圍，專注於我們認為真正能為公司帶來增值業務的三個核心領域，我認為我們現在能夠制定出更清晰的發展道路。這就是我們正在做的事情。

And I -- the takeaway I'd like investors to understand is when we see things, we look at things and we pivot. We're not married to things. We're willing to change. I think when I go back to our 2020 Investor Day, and I look at what we laid out during that period of time, we've accomplished and have executed on the vast majority of things we've laid out. That doesn't mean there's not more work to do. But you know what? We didn't execute perfectly on some. So we've taken a hard look at those and you make adjustments. And that's kind of the ethos of the nimbleness of Goldman Sachs that I want to amplify.

我想讓投資人明白的一點是，當我們發現問題時，我們會審視問題並做出調整。我們不會固守成規，而是樂於改變。回顧2020年的投資者日，看看我們當時制定的計劃，我們已經完成了絕大多數目標。但這並不意味著我們已經完成了更多的工作。事實上，我們在某些​​方面做得併不完美。因此，我們認真審視了這些問題，並做出了相應的調整。這正是高盛靈活應變的精神所在，也是我想著要重強調的。

We're always willing to make changes. We're always going to be focused on shareholders. And even though everything has not gone perfectly, again, I'd point to our 40% book value growth since our Investor Day, and I'd map that out. Our book value per share growth, I believe it's more than double the next nearest competitor. So we're going to continue to stay focused on the medium and long term. I think we're good at nimbly making adjustments, and we'll always be very clear to (inaudible) when we get things right or we get things wrong.

我們始終願意做出改變，也始終以股東利益為中心。儘管並非一切都盡如人意，但我還是要強調，自投資者日以來，我們的帳面價值增長了40%，而且我會詳細闡述這一增長情況。我相信，我們的每股帳面價值成長率是排名第二的競爭對手的兩倍以上。因此，我們將繼續專注於中長期發展。我認為我們善於靈活調整，並且始終會清楚地認識到哪些方面做得對，哪些方面做得不對。

We'll take our next question from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell 提出的問題。

Maybe just your thoughts on the outlook for investment banking. I appreciate Denis' comments. We've seen a big increase in debt issuance, so some improving liquidity in the debt markets, at least. Is that, in your mind, a leading indicator for beginning to monetize backlogs? And just generally, how are you thinking about the outlook for investment banking?

或許您可以談談您對投資銀行業前景的看法。我很欣賞丹尼斯的評論。我們看到債務發行量大幅成長，至少債務市場的流動性有所改善。您認為這是否預示著積壓貸款即將開始變現？總的來說，您如何看待投資銀行業的未來前景？

Yes. Sure. I think one of the things we're dealing with, and it's overamplified in our very capital market-centric business, is that 2021 was not normal. The second half of 2020 and 2021 were not normal. They were way inflated by the massive fiscal stimulus that created kind of, I'd call, on the spectrum of activity, excess activity, pulled a lot of activity forward.

是的，當然。我認為我們面臨的一個問題，尤其是在我們這個以資本市場為中心的產業中，這個問題被無限放大，那就是2021年並不正常。 2020年下半年和2021年都不正常。大規模的財政刺激措施極大地推高了經濟活動，造成了一種我稱之為「過度活躍」的局面，將許多經濟活動提前了。

And then because of market disruption, we've tightened monetary conditions meaningfully in 2022. It's the first year in over 50 years that both fixed income and equity markets were down. We had the S&P down 20%, the NASDAQ down 30%. You had a real change in asset values across the spectrum. And when that happens, it takes a period of time for people to adjust.

由於市場動盪，我們在2022年大幅收緊了貨幣政策。這是50多年來固定收益市場和股票市場首次同時下跌。標普500指數下跌了20%，那斯達克指數下跌了30%。各類資產價值都發生了顯著變化。而當這種情況發生時，人們需要一段時間來適應。

My historical experience would be that period of time is kind of 4 to 6 quarters. And so if you think about it, if somebody had a stock that was trading at $100 and the stock goes down by 30%, certainly, for the next couple of quarters, they're still thinking about $100. But if it's at $70 for 4 or 5, 6 quarters, then it's $70. And suddenly, when you look ahead and you think about either an M&A transaction or financing, you have more realism about the reset of values.

根據我的經驗，這個時間段通常是4到6個季度。想想看，如果有人持有一隻股價為100美元的股票，股價下跌了30%，那麼在接下來的幾個季度裡，他們肯定還會把股價維持在100美元。但如果股價在70美元左右持續4到5個季度，甚至6個季度，那麼它就只能是70美元了。突然之間，當你展望未來，考慮併購交易或融資時，你會更理性地看待股價的重置。

So I think we're well into that journey of a reset in expectations. I think it might have another quarter or 2 to further reset, but I think we're starting to see some additional improvements. People point to the investment-grade debt market. That would obviously be where it would come first. But my expectations would be in the back half of '23, meaningfully better.

所以我認為我們已經進入了預期調整的階段。我認為可能還需要一到兩個季度的時間才能進一步調整，但我認為我們已經開始看到一些新的改善。人們都提到了投資等級債券市場。這顯然會是首要的改善領域。但我預計到2023年下半年，情況會顯著好轉。

And also, it's interesting, and I'll be heading to [Dallas] tonight with others, but I was watching some of the commentary -- the macro commentary. People are softening their view of 2023. And I'd say it's getting a little bit more [dove-ish], a little bit more of a softer landing than kind of where people were a quarter or 2 ago. And that, too, will affect capital markets opportunity because it's really tied to confidence.

而且，這很有意思。我今晚會和其他人一起去達拉斯，但我看了一些評論——宏觀經濟方面的評論。人們對2023年的看法正在緩和。我覺得現在的情況更偏向鴿派，比一兩個季度前人們的預期要溫和得多。這也會影響資本市場的機會，因為它與信心息息相關。

So I think we're going through that. I don't think anything has fundamentally changed. I think these capital markets businesses are still very big businesses. But you shouldn't look at 2022 as normal, just as you shouldn't look at 2021 as normal. The normal lies somewhere in the middle.

所以我覺得我們正在經歷這個階段。我認為本質上並沒有什麼改變。這些資本市場業務仍然非常龐大。但你不應該把2022年視為正常，就像你不應該把2021年視為正常一樣。正常狀態介於兩者之間。

Right. And maybe just a follow-up on the reserve and provisioning. That's obviously been a big drag in profitability as you grow the platform business. But as you shrink Marcus, is there also any desire to kind of slow? I know you -- GreenSky is growing on balance sheet, but the rest of the business, is that slow?

好的。或許可以再補充一下關於儲備金和撥備的問題。顯然，隨著平台業務的成長，這嚴重拖累了獲利能力。但隨著Marcus業務的縮減，你們是否也希望放慢成長速度？我知道GreenSky的資產負債表顯示其業務正在成長，但其他業務的成長速度是否放緩了？

Do we start to see provisioning slow, and given how high your reserve levels already are? Just trying to get a better picture on how to think about that cadence and maybe where your macro assumptions are in your reserve levels.

我們是否開始看到撥備放緩？考慮到你們目前的撥備水準已經很高了。我只是想更了解撥備節奏，以及你們在撥備水平方面所做的宏觀假設。

Sure. So -- as it relates to slowing growth, we actually did slow origination activity over the course of the fourth quarter. Over the course of the year, we've implemented a number of changes to our credit underwriting, tightening some of those provisions. And so we actually did see a slowing of new originations.

當然。至於成長放緩，我們第四季的貸款發放量確實有所下降。今年以來，我們對信貸審批流程進行了一些調整，並收緊了部分撥備。因此，我們確實看到新貸款發放量有所下降。

That being said, the vast majority of the provision build was attributable to the existing balances as opposed to the new originations. So that's also something that we're going to watch very carefully as things develop. You notice our overall coverage ratio increasing. That's a function of what we've observed in our portfolio, but as well as our macroeconomic outlook. And so we've made some adjustments, which reflect our best estimates for performance in the economy going forward.

儘管如此，絕大部分撥備增加是由於現有餘額而非新增貸款造成的。因此，我們將密切關注事態發展。您會注意到我們的整體撥備覆蓋率上升。這既取決於我們對投資組合的觀察，也取決於我們對宏觀經濟前景的預期。因此，我們做出了一些調整，以反映我們對未來經濟表現的最佳預估。

At this time, there are no further questions. Please continue with any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題了。請繼續作總結發言。

Since there are no more questions, we'd like to thank everyone for joining the call. And certainly, if additional questions arise, please don't hesitate to reach out to me or others on the Investor Relations team. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking with you soon and seeing many of you at our Investor Day on February 28. Thank you.

由於沒有其他問題，我們衷心感謝各位參加本次電話會議。當然，如果您還有其他問題，請隨時與我或投資者關係團隊的其他成員聯繫。此外，我們期待盡快與您再次溝通，並於2月28日的投資者日活動中見到各位。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Goldman Sachs Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，高盛2022年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。