蓋璞 (GPS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Gap Inc. 公佈了 2022 年第四季度和財年業績。淨銷售額下降 6% 至 42.4 億美元。第四季度的可比銷售額在去年的正 [3%] 基礎上下降了 5%。商店銷售額比上一年下降 3%,這是一種趨勢改善,因為消費者似乎正在轉向店內購物。在線銷售額比去年下降 10%,佔本季度總銷售額的 41%。

Gap Inc. 對本財年下半年的趨勢改善感到鼓舞,並“鑑於持續不確定的消費者和宏觀環境,採取審慎的方法來規劃和管理我們的業務。” Gap Inc. 宣布,雖然 2022 年第一季度的淨銷售額趨勢好於第四季度,但他們預計本季度銷售額將同比下降到中個位數區間。該公司將這種預期的銷售額下降歸因於不確定的消費環境,併計劃通過減少折扣和促銷活動來抵消部分影響。此外,Gap Inc. 預計毛利率將同比提高,這得益於槓桿率的提高,並被通脹成本逆風所抵消。 Gap Inc. 報告的第四季度業績低於預期,Banana Republic 銷售額下降 6% 至 5.78 億美元,可比銷售額下降 3%。該公司將此歸因於產品失誤,包括毛衣和外套的分類過多,以及沒有引起消費者共鳴的禮品分類。 Athleta 的銷售額下降了 1% 至 4.36 億美元,但這比 2019 年大流行前的水平有所改善。 Gap Inc. 相信 Athleta 將恢復長期增長和盈利能力。 Gap Inc. 報告稱,與去年同期相比,2022 財年第四季度的淨銷售額下降了 1%。這是由於商店銷售額下降,部分被在線銷售額增加所抵消。本季度可比銷售額下降 3%,其中 Gap 品牌商店下降 5%,Old Navy 商店增加 1%。該公司報告本季度調整後的運營虧損為 6200 萬美元,而去年同期為 8700 萬美元。

展望下一財年,Gap Inc. 預計淨銷售額將下降至中低個位數範圍。這在一定程度上是由於該公司不再有來自 Gap 中國的銷售額,Gap 中國去年的淨銷售額約為 3 億美元。此外,2023 年將是第 53 週,預計淨銷售額將增加約 1.5 億美元。

與 2022 財年相比,預計毛利率將有所提高,當時公司調整後的毛利率為 35%。這是由於去年增加的空運費用增加了 200 個基點的槓桿,以及產品成本和運費的提高。然而,通脹成本逆風也將導致去槓桿化 100 個基點。因此,與去年相比,毛利率佔銷售額的百分比預計大致持平。

展望下一財年,Gap Inc. 預計 SG&A 費用將比上一年下降到中低個位數。預計這一減少將來自 2022 財年實施的更高激勵薪酬、工資上漲和成本節約舉措的結合。該公司還宣布計劃在下一財年關閉 50 至 55 家 Gap 和 Banana Republic 門店.在 2022 年第四季度的財報電話會議上,Gap Inc. 宣布預計 2023 年全年的 SG&A 約為 52 億美元。這比去年的支出有所減少,部分原因是員工人數、營銷和技術支出有所節省。這些節省被為管理和通貨膨脹壓力重置獎金的需要所抵消。此外,Gap Inc. 已確定與管理變革和更廣泛的重組相關的增量節省 3 億美元,重組將在今年部分進行,並持續到明年。

在房地產方面,Gap Inc. 看到了租金和合租條款方面的一些壓力。 Gap Inc. 專注於通過商店改造和商店更新等投資來增加商店的客流量。 Gap Inc. 也在研究如何吸引更多數字流量進入商店。

2022 財年調整後的毛利率為 35%,低於 2021 財年的 39.8%。商品利潤率下降 430 個基點,原因是空運槓桿率下降 50 個基點,通脹逆風導致去槓桿化約 200 個基點,其餘280 個基點的去槓桿化來自更高的貼現率。

ROD 占淨銷售額的百分比與上一年相比減少了 50 個基點。 2022 財年調整後的 SG&A 為 54.8 億美元,比上年下降 4%,原因是較低的激勵薪酬和較低的營銷支出。

該公司計劃在促銷環境中註重質量而不是數量,目標是為低收入消費者提供良好的價值主張。在 2022 年第四季度的財報電話會議上,Gap Inc. 宣佈在降低庫存水平方面取得了重大進展,這在過去一直是該公司的一個問題。庫存總體下降了 21%,其中與在途商品相關的收益減少了 17 個百分點,與庫存相關的庫存減少了 2 個百分點。該公司預計將在 2023 財年繼續降低庫存水平,庫存水平計劃降幅超過銷售額。 Gap Inc. 還宣布,截至 2022 財年,其現金和現金等價物為 12 億美元,比上一年增長 39%。

薩克塞納:

總體而言,我們對整個公司在 2022 財年取得的進展感到滿意。我們在減少庫存方面取得了長足進步,我們在年底的庫存比上年減少了 21%。隨著我們在 2023 財年的進展,銷售和庫存增長將更加緊密地保持一致。

Gap 品牌在 2022 財年結束時比進入今年時處於更好的位置,由於更清潔的庫存和更相關的產品,女裝業務出現反彈。該品牌已經開始恢復其響應能力,這將使其能夠進一步追逐消費者正在尋找的品類。

運動員:

有了這個,瑪麗貝絲勞頓將離開她作為 Athleta 總裁的角色。在我們尋找一位由 Athleta 內部強大的領導團隊支持的新領導時,我會傾訴,他將在此期間繼續推動業務發展。此外,我們剛剛聘請了一位新的品牌創意主管,他計劃於 5 月加入,他以為各種規模的品牌帶來願景、聲音和清晰的觀點而聞名。我們渴望讓她加入 Athleta 團隊。

我不會錯過藉此機會對 Asheesh 和 Mary Beth 在任期間為 Gap Inc. 做出的所有貢獻表示感謝。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to The Gap Inc. Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們先生們,下午好。我叫 Regina,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。歡迎大家參加 Gap Inc. 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to introduce your host, Cammeron McLaughlin, Head of Investor Relations.

    我現在想介紹一下您的主持人,投資者關係主管 Cammeron McLaughlin。

  • Cammeron Finnegan McLaughlin - Head of IR

    Cammeron Finnegan McLaughlin - Head of IR

  • Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Gap Inc.'s Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

    大家下午好。歡迎來到 Gap Inc. 2022 財年第四季度收益電話會議。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that the information made available on this webcast and conference call contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause our actual results to be materially different. For information on factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements as well as the description and reconciliation of any financial measures not consistent with generally accepted accounting principles, please refer to the cautionary statements contained in our latest earnings release.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,本次網絡廣播和電話會議中提供的信息包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在風險,可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異。有關可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的信息,以及任何不符合公認會計原則的財務措施的描述和調節,請參閱我們最新的收益發布中包含的警示性聲明.

  • The information included on Page 2 of the slides shown on the Investors section of our website, gapinc.com, which supplement today's remarks. The risk factors described in the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 15, 2022, and any subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, all of which are available on gapinc.com.

    我們網站 gapinc.com 的投資者部分顯示的幻燈片第 2 頁中包含的信息補充了今天的評論。公司於 2022 年 3 月 15 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告以及隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的任何文件中描述的風險因素,所有這些都可以在 gapinc.com 上找到。

  • These forward-looking statements are based on information as of today, March 9, 2023, and we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise our forward-looking statements. Joining me on this call today are Interim Chief Executive Officer, Bobby Martin; Chief Financial Officer, Katrina O'Connell; and Old Navy, Chief Executive Officer, Haio Barbeito.

    這些前瞻性陳述基於截至今天(2023 年 3 月 9 日)的信息,我們不承擔公開更新或修改我們的前瞻性陳述的義務。今天和我一起參加這次電話會議的是臨時首席執行官 Bobby Martin;卡特里娜·奧康奈爾首席財務官;和 Old Navy,首席執行官 Haio Barbeito。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Bobby.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給鮑比。

  • Bobby L. Martin - Executive Chairman of the Board, Interim President & Interim CEO

    Bobby L. Martin - Executive Chairman of the Board, Interim President & Interim CEO

  • Thank you, Cammeron, and good afternoon, everyone. Well, I first spoke with you in August of last year, we discussed the need and bias for action. In that time, we moved quickly and effectively at clearing excess inventory, improving assortment balance, particularly at Old Navy, while removing costs across our business and improving our balance sheet. And as a result, we entered fiscal 2023 in a more competitive position.

    謝謝你,Cammeron,大家下午好。好吧,我在去年 8 月第一次與您交談,我們討論了採取行動的必要性和偏見。在那段時間裡,我們迅速有效地清理了過剩庫存,改善了分類平衡,尤其是在 Old Navy,同時消除了我們整個業務的成本並改善了我們的資產負債表。因此,我們以更具競爭力的地位進入了 2023 財年。

  • In parallel, we've wasted no time in shoring up the foundation of our company to get back to a place where we are delivering what our customers, employees and shareholders expect. In my time as interim CEO, I've spent many hours listening to our people across every area of the business, especially those closest to our customers. What I have found is incredible talent and creative muscle that has been varied dampened by a complicated organizational structure, bureaucracy and outdated processes. That's why we are hard at work to remove barriers, simplify how we work, and empower our teams to embrace and drive change that will enable the future for Gap Inc. really is a healthier company at its core.

    與此同時,我們不遺餘力地鞏固公司的基礎,以回到我們交付客戶、員工和股東期望的地方。在擔任臨時 CEO 期間,我花了很多時間傾聽我們業務各個領域的員工的意見,尤其是那些最接近客戶的員工。我發現的是令人難以置信的天賦和創造力,它們因複雜的組織結構、官僚主義和過時的流程而變得多樣化。這就是為什麼我們努力消除障礙,簡化我們的工作方式,並授權我們的團隊接受和推動變革,這將使 Gap Inc. 的未來真正成為一家更健康的公司。

  • I will share more on this in a moment. But before I do that, I'm sure you are all looking for an update on our search for Gap Inc.'s permanent Chief Executive Officer. The Board has narrowed its search, and we are getting close to naming a new CEO. The Board and I remain determined to land the right leader, an external candidate, one with an unwavering commitment to leading brands with a point of view, delivering relevant products and experiences for our customers. And above all, a strong leader who sets the right tone, one with heightened accountability and operating rigor.

    我稍後會分享更多。但在我這樣做之前,我相信你們都在尋找我們尋找 Gap Inc. 常任首席執行官的最新消息。董事會已經縮小了搜索範圍,我們即將任命一位新 CEO。董事會和我仍然決心找到合適的領導者,一位外部候選人,一位堅定不移地致力於領導品牌的觀點,為我們的客戶提供相關產品和體驗。最重要的是,要有一位設定正確基調的強有力的領導者,一個具有高度問責制和嚴謹運作的領導者。

  • Final candidates have been provided appropriate insight to the work underway and are aligned on our approach. We believe this will enable the next CEO to have a quicker ramp, and I will remain a dedicated support through the transition. In our pursuit to become fit for the future, today we announced a simplified leadership and operating structure to further optimize cost and organizational effectiveness while enabling a return to the cultural relevance and creative focus that has always been the heartbeat of Gap Inc.

    已向最終候選人提供了對正在進行的工作的適當見解,並與我們的方法保持一致。我們相信這將使下一任 CEO 能夠更快地晉升,我將在整個過渡期間繼續提供專門的支持。為了適應未來,我們今天宣布了一個簡化的領導層和運營結構,以進一步優化成本和組織效率,同時回歸到文化相關性和創意重點,這一直是 Gap Inc 的核心。

  • We are flattening the organization by increasing spans of control and decreasing management layers to improve the quality and speed of decision making, starting with our leadership team. Each of our brands now have consistent leadership structures focused on delivering excellence for our customers by elevating design and brand creative, focusing on merchandising end-to-end and providing better oversight to the customer experience across all markets and channels.

    我們正在通過增加控制跨度和減少管理層級來使組織扁平化,以提高決策質量和速度,從我們的領導團隊開始。我們的每個品牌現在都擁有一致的領導結構,專注於通過提升設計和品牌創意為我們的客戶提供卓越服務,專注於端到端的商品銷售,並更好地監督所有市場和渠道的客戶體驗。

  • We estimate that these actions will result in $300 million of annualized savings, of which roughly half is expected to be realized in fiscal 2023. Over the past 6 months, we've identified $550 million of annualized savings, and these actions are just the first steps in an ongoing plan to drive meaningful change in our operating model and continue to drive financial gains. With the right organizational structure and foundation in place, we are assessing our go-forward plans to rationalize our technology investments and to further optimize our marketing so that brand messaging is closely integrated from product creation to customer.

    我們估計這些行動每年將節省 3 億美元,其中大約一半預計將在 2023 財年實現。在過去 6 個月中,我們確定了 5.5 億美元的年度節省,這些行動只是第一步正在進行的計劃中的步驟,以推動我們的運營模式發生有意義的變化,並繼續推動財務收益。有了正確的組織結構和基礎,我們正在評估我們的未來計劃,以合理化我們的技術投資並進一步優化我們的營銷,以便品牌信息從產品創建到客戶緊密集成。

  • As a result of our new operating structure, we will be eliminating the role of Chief Growth Officer held by Asheesh Saxena. Equally important to simplifying how we work is ensuring that we have the right talent in the right roles to drive long-term results. We believe Athleta has incredible potential, but has suffered product acceptance issues over several quarters now. As we look to seize the potential and remain competitive amidst the dynamic landscape, we believe now is the right time to bring in a new leader who can position Athleta for long-term success.

    由於我們採用了新的運營結構,我們將取消 Asheesh Saxena 擔任的首席增長官一職。對於簡化我們的工作方式同樣重要的是確保我們擁有合適的人才擔任合適的角色以推動長期成果。我們相信 Athleta 具有不可思議的潛力,但現在已經有幾個季度出現了產品接受度問題。當我們希望抓住潛力並在充滿活力的環境中保持競爭力時,我們相信現在是引進一位能夠讓 Athleta 取得長期成功的新領導者的合適時機。

  • With that, Mary Beth Laughton will be leaving her role as President of Athleta. I will lean in while we search for a new leader supported by a strong leadership team inside Athleta, who will continue to drive the business in the interim. Additionally, we just hired a new Head of Brand Creative who is scheduled to join in May, known for bringing vision, voice and a clear point of view to brands of all sizes. We are eager to have her join the Athleta team. I would not miss taking this opportunity in a moment to express my gratitude to Asheesh and Mary Beth for all their many contributions to Gap Inc. during their tenures.

    有了這個,瑪麗貝絲勞頓將離開她作為 Athleta 總裁的角色。在我們尋找一位由 Athleta 內部強大的領導團隊支持的新領導時,我會傾訴,他將在此期間繼續推動業務發展。此外,我們剛剛聘請了一位新的品牌創意主管,他計劃於 5 月加入,他以為各種規模的品牌帶來願景、聲音和清晰的觀點而聞名。我們渴望讓她加入 Athleta 團隊。我不會錯過藉此機會對 Asheesh 和 Mary Beth 在任期間為 Gap Inc. 做出的所有貢獻表示感謝。

  • Okay. Let's pivot to performance across brands. We made great progress across brands to rebalance and reduce inventory, ending the year with inventories 21% below the prior year. As I hope you would expect, I am really pleased with the progress the teams have made to start the year clean. And we anticipate sales and inventory growth to be much more closely aligned as we progress through fiscal 2023. Gap brand exited fiscal 2022 in a better position than it entered the year with the women's business rebounding, thanks to cleaner inventory and product that is much more relevant. The brand has already begun to reinstate its responsive capabilities, which will continue to enable them to further chase into the categories consumers are looking for.

    好的。讓我們轉向跨品牌的表現。我們跨品牌在重新平衡和減少庫存方面取得了巨大進展,到年底庫存比上年減少 21%。正如我希望您所期望的那樣,我對各隊在年初乾淨利落地取得的進展感到由衷的高興。我們預計,隨著我們在 2023 財年的進展,銷售和庫存增長將更加緊密地保持一致。Gap 品牌在 2022 財年結束時比進入今年時處於更好的位置,女性業務出現反彈,這要歸功於更清潔的庫存和更多的產品相關的。該品牌已經開始恢復其響應能力,這將繼續使他們能夠進一步追逐消費者正在尋找的類別。

  • And I hope you have gotten a chance to see Gap brand's most recent collaboration with Brooklyn Circus. It's truly an example of how product partnerships can work when vision and values align. On the full year, Banana Republic delivered market share gains as its elevated brand positioning and strong expression of occasion and workwear resonated with consumers, but some holiday misses dampened the quarter's overall results.

    我希望您有機會看到 Gap 品牌與布魯克林馬戲團的最新合作。這是一個真正的例子,說明當願景和價值觀一致時,產品合作夥伴關係如何發揮作用。在全年中,Banana Republic 憑藉其提升的品牌定位以及對場合和工作服的強烈表達引起了消費者的共鳴,實現了市場份額的增長,但一些假期失誤削弱了該季度的整體業績。

  • We remain confident in the long-term strategy for Banana Republic and know that it takes time to transform a brand and build strong relevance. As we look to fiscal 2023, we are expecting more moderated growth at BR relative to fiscal 2022 as consumer preferences rebalance post COVID.

    我們對 Banana Republic 的長期戰略充滿信心,並且知道品牌轉型和建立強大的相關性需要時間。展望 2023 財年,隨著消費者偏好在 COVID 後重新平衡,我們預計 BR 相對於 2022 財年的增長將更加溫和。

  • On Athleta, we know that the brand can and will do better. It's foundational brand health is intact and its power of sheer positioning continues to resonate. But at the end of the day, it all comes down to product. Core bottom silhouettes continue to perform true to Athleta's performance DNA and remain staples in our customers' wardrobe. However, print and color misses are examples of where we are not meeting her expectations fully.

    在 Athleta 上,我們知道該品牌可以而且將會做得更好。它的基礎品牌健康狀況完好無損,其純粹定位的力量繼續引起共鳴。但歸根結底,一切都歸結為產品。 Core bottom 廓形繼續忠實於 Athleta 的性能 DNA,並且仍然是我們客戶衣櫥中的必備單品。然而,印刷和顏色缺失是我們沒有完全滿足她期望的例子。

  • And finally, Old Navy was a key driver of our inventory improvement in the quarter. And again, I'm really proud of the work this team is doing to improve execution and consistency of results. Katrina will share more with you on specifics around brand performance, but where I wanted to take a little more time today and spend with you is talking about Old Navy.

    最後,Old Navy 是我們本季度庫存改善的主要推動力。再一次,我為這個團隊為提高執行力和結果一致性所做的工作感到非常自豪。卡特里娜颶風將與您分享更多關於品牌表現的細節,但我今天想多花點時間和您談談 Old Navy。

  • As you know, Haio Barbeito joined us in August of last year, bringing an authentic leadership style backed by a strong track record of delivering results through challenging times. I've asked him to join us today to share his observations since joining Old Navy and how he is approaching bringing the brand back to winning again. So I gladly present to you Haio Barbeito. Haio?

    如您所知,Haio Barbeito 於去年 8 月加入我們,帶來了真正的領導風格,並以在充滿挑戰的時期取得成果的良好記錄為後盾。我邀請他今天加入我們,分享他自加入 Old Navy 以來的觀察,以及他是如何讓該品牌重新贏得勝利的。因此,我很高興向您介紹 Haio Barbeito。好嗎?

  • Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

    Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

  • Thank you, Bobby. It is nice to speak to all of you today. Old Navy has always been a brand that delivers on the idea that great quality fashion at unbelievable prices with delightful experience should be accessible to everyone. This was true differentiator in the apparel industry when Old Navy reached $1 million in sales in just 4 years. And it still rings true today as Old Navy maintains its position as one of the largest apparel brands in the U.S. delivering not only sales in excess of $8 billion, but also serving more than 45 million customers and nearly 50,000 associates globally.

    謝謝你,鮑比。很高興今天能和大家講話。 Old Navy 一直是一個品牌,秉承這樣的理念,即每個人都應該能夠以令人難以置信的價格獲得優質時尚,並享受愉快的體驗。當 Old Navy 在短短 4 年內達到 100 萬美元的銷售額時,這是服裝行業真正的差異化因素。時至今日,Old Navy 仍然保持其作為美國最大服裝品牌之一的地位,不僅銷售額超過 80 億美元,而且還在全球範圍內為超過 4500 萬客戶和近 50,000 名員工提供服務。

  • And I am confident that our unique customer value proposition is well suited for an environment where consumers are increasingly seeking value. I am pleased to report that Old Navy has delivered significant improvements in performance relative to the first half of the year. But in order to unleash Old Navy's full potential long term and further amplify its market leadership, we have spent considerable time focusing on stabilizing the core and elevating execution across our entire organization.

    而且我相信,我們獨特的客戶價值主張非常適合消費者日益尋求價值的環境。我很高興地報告,與上半年相比,Old Navy 的業績有了顯著改善。但為了長期釋放 Old Navy 的全部潛力並進一步擴大其市場領導地位,我們花費了大量時間專注於穩定核心並提升整個組織的執行力。

  • Let me provide some more specifics on where we have been focused. First, we took decisive action to rightsize the historic high levels of inventory in the second half of fiscal '22, which had arisen from the supply chain disruptions and also some execution issues that impacted Old Navy in late 2021 and early 2022. At the end of the fiscal 2022, liable inventory per Old Navy store hit one of the lowest levels in brand's history, [albeit on] expensive margin, which made room for newness and seasonally the right assortment that you can see these days across our fleet and online. And it's now making it even easier for our customers to find and discover the product they are looking for.

    讓我提供一些關於我們關注的更多細節。首先,我們採取果斷行動調整 22 財年下半年的歷史高位庫存,這是由於供應鏈中斷以及一些執行問題在 2021 年底和 2022 年初影響了 Old Navy。最後在 2022 財年,每個 Old Navy 商店的責任庫存達到了品牌歷史上的最低水平之一,[儘管] 利潤率很高,這為您現在可以在我們的車隊和網上看到的新品和季節性合適的分類騰出了空間。現在,它使我們的客戶更容易找到和發現他們正在尋找的產品。

  • Second, we improved balance and relevance in assortment, pivoting from narrow end-use, over that a little bit uncomfort to a more versatile occasion-based assortment in response to our customers' need for return to routine. This has resulted in improvement in our performance as we exit fiscal 2022.

    其次,我們改善了分類的平衡性和相關性,從狹窄的最終用途轉向有點不適應的更通用的基於場合的分類,以響應客戶回歸常規的需求。這導致我們在 2022 財年結束時的業績有所改善。

  • After losing share in the first half of fiscal '22, Old Navy maintained share in the second half of the year primarily driven by market share gains in Women's. We are pleased to report that Old Navy's Women's business showed positive momentum in the fourth quarter, which is a significant improvement and very important for the health of our brand. This was offset by weakness in kids and baby as noted by many others in the industry. But the good news is that we renewed assortment in the new kids and baby flow, we're seeing early improvement in sales trend. Third, with our now leaner inventory position and balanced assortment, we have been focused on getting our responsive capabilities back in order to buy more efficiently and remain dynamic and flexible to chase into demand or pivot if the consumer needs shift.

    在 22 財年上半年失去份額後,Old Navy 在下半年保持了份額,這主要是由於女性市場份額的增加。我們很高興地報告,Old Navy 的女裝業務在第四季度呈現出積極的勢頭,這是一個顯著的改善,對我們品牌的健康發展非常重要。正如業內許多其他人所指出的那樣,這被兒童和嬰兒的弱點所抵消。但好消息是我們更新了新的兒童和嬰兒流的分類,我們看到銷售趨勢的早期改善。第三,隨著我們現在更精簡的庫存狀況和平衡的分類,我們一直專注於恢復我們的響應能力,以便更有效地購買並保持動態和靈活以追逐需求或在消費者需求轉變時進行調整。

  • And finally, we have been focusing on execution discipline. We have been deep in the work of identifying areas of opportunities for organizational efficiency in order to streamline processes and elevate execution and experience for our customers. In our efforts to elevate execution, Old Navy's store leadership rolled out a comprehensive operational excellence plan to elevate operating standards, optimizing associate coverage and overall omni customer experience. As a result, we are experiencing consistent improvement in Old Navy stores NPS that we expect to cement going forward.

    最後,我們一直專注於執行紀律。我們一直致力於確定提高組織效率的機會領域,以簡化流程並提升客戶的執行力和體驗。在我們提升執行力的努力中,Old Navy 的門店領導推出了一項全面的卓越運營計劃,以提昇運營標準、優化員工覆蓋範圍和整體全方位客戶體驗。因此,我們正在體驗 Old Navy 商店 NPS 的持續改進,我們希望能夠鞏固這一點。

  • Now with a more solid foundation from which to build, I can focus my attention towards the long term and defining the future of Old Navy. One that is rooted in Old Navy has always been known for offering style, fit, quality and cultural relevance at a great value, but with an even sharper focus on how we can better serve our customers today and very importantly, to win with the omnicustomer of tomorrow. This forward-looking work is just kicking off, and I look forward to speaking to you more about it once it is complete.

    現在有了更堅實的基礎,我可以將注意力集中在長期和定義 Old Navy 的未來上。一個植根於 Old Navy 的品牌一直以提供款式、合身性、質量和文化相關性而著稱,而且物超所值,但更加專注於我們如何更好地為當今的客戶服務,而且非常重要的是,要與 omnicustomer 一起取勝明天的。這項具有前瞻性的工作才剛剛開始,我期待在它完成後與您更多地談論它。

  • With that, I will turn the call back to Bobby.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉回給鮑比。

  • Bobby L. Martin - Executive Chairman of the Board, Interim President & Interim CEO

    Bobby L. Martin - Executive Chairman of the Board, Interim President & Interim CEO

  • All right. Thanks Haio, and thanks again for the great leadership you're providing. To wrap up, let me take you back to where I began. We are in the midst of transformative change. We are on a journey to build a healthier Gap Inc. at its core, and the actions we shared today are just the beginning. .

    好的。感謝 Haio,再次感謝您提供的出色領導。最後,讓我帶你回到我開始的地方。我們正處於變革之中。我們正在努力建設一個以健康為核心的 Gap Inc.,而我們今天分享的行動只是一個開始。 .

  • Again, I believe we have taken the right short-term actions to boost performance at Old Navy, clear excess inventory, remove cost from the business and improve our balance sheet, which is allowing us to begin the year in a much stronger position. The true payback will be far greater than the cost savings we've discussed. The payback will come when we show up as a more informed, faster and more creative company, delivering brand and cultural relevance to our customers. I have found great talent across the company, great creative talent, and I'm confident that they are ready to embrace change, unlock value and strengthen our core capabilities and the talent waiting in the wings is more than capable of becoming the future leaders of our company.

    同樣,我相信我們已經採取了正確的短期行動來提高 Old Navy 的業績、清理過剩庫存、降低業務成本並改善我們的資產負債表,這使我們能夠以更強大的地位開始新的一年。真正的回報將遠遠大於我們討論過的成本節約。當我們成為一家消息靈通、速度更快、更具創造力的公司,為我們的客戶提供品牌和文化相關性時,回報就會到來。我在整個公司都找到了優秀的人才,優秀的創意人才,我相信他們已經準備好迎接變革,釋放價值並加強我們的核心能力,等待的人才完全有能力成為未來的領導者我們公司。

  • As I hand the reins over to a new permanent CEO for Gap Inc. in the near future, I am confident that the work our team is doing now to restructure for the long term will enable them to join a healthier organization on day 1, an organization ready to pursue creative excellence and to deliver for our customers, our people and our shareholders.

    當我在不久的將來將權力移交給 Gap Inc. 的新常任首席執行官時,我相信我們的團隊現在正在進行的長期重組工作將使他們能夠在第一天加入一個更健康的組織,一個組織準備追求卓越的創意並為我們的客戶、我們的員工和我們的股東提供服務。

  • And with that, I will turn the call now over to Katrina. Katrina?

    有了這個,我現在將把電話轉給卡特里娜颶風。卡特里娜?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Bobby, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. We moved swiftly in fiscal 2022 to manage the levers in our control and took action to drive immediate and long-term improvements across our business during what proved to be a challenging year. Most notably, we significantly reduced excess inventory, exceeding our year-end goal and driving merchandise inventories down 21% versus the prior year. We improved category size and assortment balance at Old Navy, which helped drive an improvement in total company trends in the second half of the year, resulting in second half sales down 2% year-over-year. compared to down 11% in the first half.

    謝謝 Bobby,也謝謝大家今天下午加入我們。我們在 2022 財年迅速採取行動來管理我們控制的槓桿,並採取行動在事實證明充滿挑戰的一年中推動我們業務的即時和長期改進。最值得注意的是,我們大幅減少了過剩庫存,超過了我們的年終目標,並推動商品庫存比上一年下降了 21%。我們改善了 Old Navy 的類別規模和分類平衡,這有助於推動下半年公司整體趨勢的改善,導致下半年銷售額同比下降 2%。與上半年下降 11% 相比。

  • We aggressively managed costs, identifying $550 million in annualized savings with a significant majority expected to impact fiscal 2023 earnings, and we further fortified our balance sheet, ending with $1.2 billion of cash, an increase of almost 40% from last year. While we are better positioned as we enter fiscal 2023, we continue to take a prudent approach to planning and managing our business in light of the continued uncertain consumer and macro environment. Let me turn to our fourth quarter results.

    我們積極管理成本,確定了 5.5 億美元的年度節省,其中絕大多數預計將影響 2023 財年的收益,我們進一步加強了資產負債表,最終擁有 12 億美元現金,比去年增加近 40%。雖然我們在進入 2023 財年時處於更有利的地位,但鑑於持續不確定的消費者和宏觀環境,我們將繼續採取審慎的方法來規劃和管理我們的業務。讓我談談我們第四季度的業績。

  • Net sales decreased 6% to $4.24 billion or 5% on a constant currency basis and in line with our expectations of mid-single-digit declines for the quarter. Compared to prepandemic levels in 2019, sales in the fourth quarter were down 9%, driven by the closure of more than 300 nonproductive Gap and Banana Republic stores, the transition to international partnerships and the divestitures of Janie and Jack and Intermix since 2019. Absent closures and divestitures, fourth quarter net sales would be flat compared to 2019. Comparable sales in the fourth quarter were down 5% on top of a positive [3%] comp last year.

    淨銷售額下降 6% 至 42.4 億美元,按固定匯率計算下降 5%,符合我們對本季度中個位數下降的預期。與 2019 年大流行前水平相比,第四季度的銷售額下降了 9%,原因是 300 多家非生產性 Gap 和 Banana Republic 門店關閉、向國際合作夥伴關係的過渡以及 Janie and Jack 和 Intermix 自 2019 年以來的資產剝離。缺席關閉和資產剝離,第四季度的淨銷售額將與 2019 年持平。第四季度的可比銷售額下降了 5%,而去年為正 [3%]。

  • Comp trend in the second half of fiscal 2022 has improved meaningfully as compared to the first half of the year, primarily as a result of our assortment rebalancing efforts at Old Navy and Gap. Store sales decreased 3% from the prior year, a trend improvement as consumers appear to be shifting back to in-store shopping. Online sales were down 10% from last year and represented 41% of total sales in the quarter. Compared to 2019, online sales are up 29%.

    與上半年相比,2022 財年下半年的 Comp 趨勢有了顯著改善,這主要是由於我們在 Old Navy 和 Gap 的產品組合重新平衡工作。商店銷售額比上一年下降 3%,這是一種趨勢改善,因為消費者似乎正在轉向店內購物。在線銷售額比去年下降 10%,佔本季度總銷售額的 41%。與 2019 年相比,在線銷售額增長了 29%。

  • Turning to sales by brand. Starting with Old Navy. Sales in the fourth quarter of $2.2 billion were down 6% versus last year and down 4% relative to 2019. Old Navy comparable sales were down 7%, driven by weakness in kids and baby, offset by strength in women's. As discussed last quarter, we believe that Old Navy pulled forward some sales from the fourth quarter to October, as a result of its efforts to get out earlier than typical with its first holiday promotional event, which impacted growth in the fourth quarter.

    轉向按品牌銷售。從老海軍開始。第四季度的銷售額為 22 億美元,與去年同期相比下降了 6%,與 2019 年相比下降了 4%。Old Navy 可比銷售額下降了 7%,這主要是由於兒童和嬰兒業務的疲軟,但被女性業務的強勁所抵消。正如上個季度所討論的那樣,我們認為 Old Navy 將第四季度的部分銷售額提前到了 10 月,這是因為它通過其第一次假日促銷活動比往常更早地退出市場,這影響了第四季度的增長。

  • In addition, we believe that Old Navy continues to experience demand softness from its lower income consumers. After losing share in the first half of the year, Old may be maintained here in the second half of the year, driven by market share gains in Women's. As we look to fiscal 2023, we believe that Old Navy remains well positioned given its value positioning in the marketplace. Gap brand total sales of $1.1 billion, were down 9% versus last year.

    此外,我們認為 Old Navy 繼續經歷低收入消費者的需求疲軟。在上半年失去份額後,在女裝市場份額增長的推動下,Old 可能會在下半年維持在這裡。展望 2023 財年,鑑於 Old Navy 在市場中的價值定位,我們認為它仍然處於有利地位。 Gap 品牌總銷售額為 11 億美元,比去年下降 9%。

  • Gap global comparable sales were down 4% and outpaced North America comparable sales as a result of lapping the outsized negative impact of COVID-related restrictions last year in Asia. Gap North America comparable sales were down 5%. The shutdown of EasyGap negatively impacted growth in North America by approximately 2 points. Gap brand experienced continued weakness in the kids and baby and active categories during the quarter, which was offset by strength in women's. Gap brand maintained share in the second half of the year after losing share in the first half, driven by share gains in women's.

    Gap 全球可比銷售額下降了 4%,並超過了北美可比銷售額,這是由於去年在亞洲受到 COVID 相關限制的巨大負面影響。 Gap 北美可比銷售額下降了 5%。 EasyGap 的關閉對北美的增長產生了大約 2 個百分點的負面影響。 Gap 品牌在本季度的兒童和嬰兒以及運動類別持續疲軟,但被女裝的優勢所抵消。在女裝市場份額增長的推動下,Gap 品牌在上半年失去份額後,在下半年保持了份額。

  • While Banana Republic delivered comparable sales growth of 9% and gained market share in fiscal 2022 as the brand continued to capitalize on the shift in consumer preference and its relaunch and elevated positioning of the brand last year, fourth quarter results were below our expectations. In the fourth quarter, Banana Republic sales were down 6% to $578 million, with comparable sales down 3%.

    儘管 Banana Republic 實現了 9% 的可比銷售額增長並在 2022 財年獲得了市場份額,因為該品牌繼續利用消費者偏好的轉變以及去年重新推出和提升品牌定位,但第四季度的業績低於我們的預期。第四季度,Banana Republic 銷售額下降 6% 至 5.78 億美元,可比銷售額下降 3%。

  • We believe Banana Republic had some holiday product misses, including over-assorted sweaters and outerwear and a gifting assortment that didn't resonate with the consumer. While dresses and suiting drove comp growth in the quarter, we do remain mindful of the fact that BR has been a beneficiary of the shift in consumer preferences to occasion and work-based categories as people go back to work and events post COVID.

    我們認為 Banana Republic 缺少一些節日產品,包括種類繁多的毛衣和外套,以及沒有引起消費者共鳴的禮品分類。雖然連衣裙和西裝推動了本季度的收入增長,但我們仍然注意到這樣一個事實,即隨著人們在 COVID 後重返工作崗位和活動,BR 一直是消費者偏好向基於場合和工作的類別轉變的受益者。

  • Athleta sales of $436 million were down 1%, however, up 51% compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Comparable sales were down 5%. We expect the brand to be delivering market share gains. We acknowledge that there have been broader product misses at Athleta. While the team is focused on course correcting, this could continue to impact growth in the near term. That being said, we're confident that the brand will get back to driving growth and profitability over the long term.

    Athleta 的銷售額為 4.36 億美元,下降了 1%,但與 2019 年大流行前的水平相比增長了 51%。可比銷售額下降了 5%。我們預計該品牌將帶來市場份額增長。我們承認 Athleta 存在更廣泛的產品缺失。雖然該團隊專注於修正路線,但這可能會繼續影響近期的增長。話雖如此,我們相信該品牌將在長期內恢復增長和盈利能力。

  • Now to gross margin in fourth quarter. Gross margin in fourth quarter decreased 10 basis points to 33.6%. Merchandise margin increased 20 basis points, driven by 540 basis points of leverage as we lapped last year's elevated air freight expense, offset by approximately 200 basis points of deleverage due to continued inflationary cost headwinds. The remaining 320 basis points of deleverage was primarily driven by discounting, resulting from our efforts to better position and clear excess inventory. ROD as a percentage of net sales deleveraged 30 basis points versus last year. Now let me turn to SG&A.

    現在是第四季度的毛利率。第四季度毛利率下降 10 個基點至 33.6%。商品利潤率增加了 20 個基點,這得益於 540 個基點的槓桿作用,因為我們去年增加了空運費用,但由於持續的通脹成本逆風而被去槓桿化約 200 個基點所抵消。剩餘的 320 個基點的去槓桿化主要是由貼現驅動的,這是我們努力更好地定位和清理過剩庫存的結果。 ROD 占淨銷售額的百分比與去年相比減少了 30 個基點。現在讓我談談 SG&A。

  • As you know, during the third quarter of fiscal 2022, we acted on approximately $250 million in annualized savings, stemming from the reduction of corporate roles, the renegotiation of advertising agency contracts and the reduction of technology operating costs and rationalization of digital investments. SG&A in the fourth quarter was $1.45 billion, a decrease of 4% relative to last year. This decrease was driven by savings related to these cost actions, offset by higher seasonal labor costs.

    如您所知,在 2022 財年第三季度,我們採取了大約 2.5 億美元的年化節省措施,這源於公司角色的減少、廣告代理合同的重新談判以及技術運營成本的降低和數字投資的合理化。第四季度的 SG&A 為 14.5 億美元,比去年下降 4%。這一減少是由與這些成本行動相關的節省推動的,但被較高的季節性勞動力成本所抵消。

  • As a percentage of total sales, SG&A deleveraged 80 basis points from the prior year as a result of the lower sales volume in the quarter. Fourth quarter net income was a loss of $273 million, primarily as a result of $230 million of tax expense related to quarterly earnings variability. EPS was a loss of $0.75. Share count ended at 366 million.

    由於本季度銷量下降,SG&A 佔總銷售額的百分比比上年減少了 80 個基點。第四季度淨收入虧損 2.73 億美元,主要原因是與季度收益變動相關的 2.3 億美元稅收支出。每股收益虧損 0.75 美元。股票總數為 3.66 億股。

  • Turning to fiscal 2022 results. Fiscal 2022 net sales of $15.6 billion, are down 6% compared to last year, including a 1 point foreign exchange headwind. Compared to 2019, net sales in fiscal 2022 were down 5%. As a reminder, we have removed close to $1.5 billion of unproductive sales since 2019 as a result of our North America fleet rationalization, divestitures and transition to international partnerships, which represents nearly 10 points of growth versus 2019.

    轉向 2022 財年業績。 2022 財年淨銷售額為 156 億美元,比去年下降 6%,其中包括 1 個百分點的外匯逆風。與 2019 年相比,2022 財年的淨銷售額下降了 5%。提醒一下,由於我們的北美機隊合理化、資產剝離和向國際合作夥伴的過渡,自 2019 年以來,我們已經減少了近 15 億美元的非生產性銷售額,與 2019 年相比增長了近 10 個百分點。

  • Adjusted operating margin was 0% in fiscal 2022, down 550 basis points from last year, driven by 480 basis points of gross margin deleverage and 80 basis points of SG&A deleverage. Fiscal 2022 adjusted gross margin was 35% versus 39.8% in fiscal 2021. Merchandise margin was down 430 basis points driven by 50 basis points of air freight leverage, approximately 200 basis points of deleverage due to inflationary headwinds and the remaining 280 basis points of deleverage primarily from higher discounting versus last year.

    2022 財年調整後的營業利潤率為 0%,比去年下降 550 個基點,這是受毛利率去槓桿化 480 個基點和 SG&A 去槓桿化 80 個基點的推動。 2022 財年調整後的毛利率為 35%,而 2021 財年為 39.8%。商品利潤率下降 430 個基點,原因是空運槓桿率下降 50 個基點,通脹逆風導致去槓桿化約 200 個基點,以及剩餘的 280 個基點去槓桿化主要來自與去年相比更高的折扣。

  • ROD as a percentage of net sales deleveraged 50 basis points versus last year. Adjusted SG&A of $5.48 billion in fiscal 2022 is down 4% from last year, driven by lower incentive compensation and lower marketing spend. Now turning to balance sheet and cash flow, starting with inventory. As discussed, we made progress rightsizing inventory and exceeded our goal of inventory levels below last year by the end of fiscal 2022, primarily driven by significant improvements at Old Navy.

    ROD 占淨銷售額的百分比與去年相比減少了 50 個基點。 2022 財年調整後的 SG&A 為 54.8 億美元,比去年下降 4%,這是受較低的激勵薪酬和較低的營銷支出推動。現在轉向資產負債表和現金流,從存貨開始。如前所述,我們在精簡庫存方面取得了進展,並超過了我們的目標,即到 2022 財年年底庫存水平低於去年,這主要是由於 Old Navy 的重大改進。

  • The 21% decline in ending inventories includes a 17 percentage point benefit related to in-transit as we lapped last year's supply chain challenges and 2 percentage points of growth related to pack and hold. The remaining decline is primarily driven by a decrease in fashion inventory. As we look to fiscal 2023, we continue to moderate buys and will further lean into our responsive levers throughout the year, which will provide flexibility to better align inventory levels with demand trends.

    期末庫存下降 21%,其中包括與在途相關的 17 個百分點的收益,因為我們克服了去年的供應鏈挑戰,以及與包裝和存放相關的 2 個百分點的增長。剩餘的下降主要是由於時尚庫存的減少。展望 2023 財年,我們將繼續適度購買,並將在全年進一步依靠我們的響應槓桿,這將提供靈活性,使庫存水平更好地與需求趨勢保持一致。

  • We are planning for inventory to be down more than sales in fiscal 2023 as compared to the prior. In addition, we will continue to integrate the inventory that was placed in pack and hold in fiscal 2022 into future assortments. This will benefit working capital as we buy lower receipts and sell through the pack and hold inventory. We ended fiscal 2022 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.2 billion, an increase of 39% from last year. Net cash from operating activities in fiscal 2022 was $607 million as a result of our progress on improving inventory levels and composition coupled with our receipt cuts and leaner buys. Capital expenditures were $685 million, slightly above our expectations, largely as a result of timing. Free cash flow was an outflow of $78 million and should begin to normalize throughout fiscal 2023.

    與之前相比,我們計劃在 2023 財年的庫存下降幅度超過銷售額。此外,我們將繼續將 2022 財年放置在包裝中的庫存整合到未來的分類中。這將有利於營運資金,因為我們購買較低的收據並通過包裝和持有庫存進行銷售。截至 2022 財年,我們的現金和現金等價物為 12 億美元,比去年增長 39%。 2022 財年經營活動產生的現金淨額為 6.07 億美元,這是由於我們在改善庫存水平和構成方面取得的進展,加上我們減少收貨和精簡採購。資本支出為 6.85 億美元,略高於我們的預期,這主要是時間安排的結果。自由現金流流出 7800 萬美元,應該會在整個 2023 財年開始恢復正常。

  • As we look to fiscal 2023, we expect to be positioned to pay down the $350 million draw on our asset-backed line of credit later this year. We remain committed to delivering an attractive quarterly dividend as a core component of total shareholder returns. During the quarter, we paid a dividend of $0.15 per share. And on March 2, our Board approved maintaining that $0.15 dividend for the first quarter of fiscal 2023. We completed our goal of offsetting dilution in fiscal 2022, repurchasing 10.6 million shares at an average price of about $12 per share. We anticipate very modest dilution in fiscal 2023 and therefore, do not anticipate meaningful share repurchase activity. We continue to have $476 million available under our current share repurchase program authorization.

    展望 2023 財年,我們預計將在今年晚些時候償還從我們的資產支持信貸額度中提取的 3.5 億美元。我們仍然致力於提供有吸引力的季度股息,作為股東總回報的核心組成部分。本季度,我們支付了每股 0.15 美元的股息。 3 月 2 日,我們的董事會批准維持 2023 財年第一季度 0.15 美元的股息。我們在 2022 財年完成了抵消攤薄的目標,以每股約 12 美元的平均價格回購 1060 萬股股票。我們預計 2023 財年會出現非常適度的稀釋,因此預計不會進行有意義的股票回購活動。根據我們當前的股票回購計劃授權,我們繼續擁有 4.76 億美元的可用資金。

  • Now turning to our outlook. We continue to take a prudent approach to planning in light of the continued uncertain consumer and macro environment. Starting with Q1. Let me first provide an overview of factors impacting year-over-year sales comparisons in the first quarter. The sale of Gap China to Baozun was completed in the beginning of the quarter. GAP China represented approximately $60 million of sales last year in Q1, representing a 2-point headwind to Gap Inc. for the quarter. These sales need to be adjusted out of current Gap brand and Gap Inc. sales assumptions. We are assuming a continued 1 point foreign exchange headwind in the first quarter.

    現在轉向我們的前景。鑑於持續不確定的消費者和宏觀環境,我們繼續採取審慎的規劃方法。從 Q1 開始。首先讓我概述影響第一季度同比銷售額比較的因素。 Gap中國向寶尊的出售已於本季度初完成。去年第一季度,GAP 中國的銷售額約為 6000 萬美元,這對 Gap Inc. 本季度造成了 2 個百分點的不利影響。這些銷售額需要根據當前的 Gap 品牌和 Gap Inc. 銷售額假設進行調整。我們假設第一季度外匯逆風持續 1 個百分點。

  • While quarter-to-date first quarter net sales are trending better than the fourth quarter, it's important to note that we have yet to reach the important March, April shopping period, which will be a significant volume period in the quarter. As I stated earlier, we also remain mindful of the uncertain consumer environment and are planning for sales to be down in the mid-single-digit range year-over-year for the quarter. As it relates to first quarter gross margin, we expect significant year-over-year improvement compared to the 31.5% gross margin in the first quarter last year. This will be driven by approximately 550 basis points of leverage as we lap last year's elevated air freight, approximately 360 basis points of deleverage due to inflationary cost headwinds as we are now selling product locked in at last year's peak cotton prices.

    雖然第一季度至今的第一季度淨銷售額趨勢好於第四季度,但重要的是要注意,我們還沒有到達重要的 3 月、4 月購物期,這將是本季度的一個重要銷量期。正如我之前所說,我們也對不確定的消費者環境保持警惕,併計劃本季度的銷售額同比下降到個位數中段。由於與第一季度毛利率相關,我們預計與去年第一季度 31.5% 的毛利率相比,同比會有顯著改善。這將受到約 550 個基點的槓桿率的推動,因為我們超越了去年的高空運費,由於我們現在銷售鎖定在去年最高棉花價格的產品,因此通貨膨脹成本逆風導致約 360 個基點的去槓桿化。

  • These inflationary headwinds are expected to moderate and become a tailwind in the back half of the year. At least half of this 360 basis point inflationary headwind is expected to be offset by less discounting and promotional activity, particularly at Old Navy, and ROD is expected to be roughly flat as a percentage of sales. We are planning to manage SG&A of approximately $1.2 billion in the first quarter, largely reflecting in the continued benefit of last year's savings actions, offset by higher incentive compensation.

    這些通脹逆風預計將在今年下半年緩和並成為順風。預計這 360 個基點的通脹逆風中至少有一半將被減少的折扣和促銷活動所抵消,特別是在 Old Navy,預計 ROD 佔銷售額的百分比將大致持平。我們計劃在第一季度管理大約 12 億美元的 SG&A,這主要反映在去年儲蓄行動的持續收益中,被更高的激勵薪酬所抵消。

  • Now turning to full year 2023. Starting with factors impacting year-over-year comparisons, Gap China represented approximately $300 million in net sales last year, representing a 2-point headwind to Gap Inc. in fiscal 2023. These sales need to be adjusted out of current Gap brand and Gap Inc. sales assumptions. Fiscal 2023 will have a 53rd week estimated to add approximately $150 million to net sales or 1 point of growth.

    現在轉向 2023 年全年。從影響同比比較的因素開始,Gap 中國去年的淨銷售額約為 3 億美元,在 2023 財年對 Gap Inc. 造成 2 個百分點的不利影響。這些銷售額需要調整出於當前的 Gap 品牌和 Gap Inc. 銷售假設。 2023 財年將有第 53 週,預計淨銷售額將增加約 1.5 億美元或增長 1 個百分點。

  • Assuming a continuation of current trends and taking a prudent approach in light of the continued uncertain environment, we believe fiscal 2023 net sales could be down in the low to mid-single-digit range. And as stated earlier, we are planning for inventory to be down more than sales in fiscal 2023.

    假設當前趨勢繼續下去,並在持續不確定的環境下採取謹慎的方法,我們認為 2023 財年的淨銷售額可能會下降到中低個位數範圍內。如前所述,我們計劃在 2023 財年使庫存降幅超過銷售額。

  • Turning to gross margin. We expect to make progress towards getting back to prepandemic gross margins compared to the 35% adjusted gross margin in fiscal 2022, gross margin in fiscal 2023 is expected to be driven by approximately 200 basis points of leverage as we lap last year's elevated air freight. This will only be a tailwind in the first half of the year as airfreight expense normalized in the back half of fiscal 2022.

    轉向毛利率。與 2022 財年 35% 的調整後毛利率相比,我們預計將在恢復大流行前毛利率方面取得進展,隨著我們超越去年的高空運費,預計 2023 財年的毛利率將受到約 200 個基點的槓桿率的推動。由於空運費用在 2022 財年下半年正常化,這只會在今年上半年起到順風作用。

  • Approximately 100 basis points of deleverage versus last year due to inflationary cost headwinds. This is driven by approximately 300 basis points of deleverage in the first half of the year, shifting to a tailwind of approximately 100 basis points of leverage in the back half as we benefit from improved product costs and freight rates. We believe the 100 basis points of inflationary headwind for the year could be more than fully offset as a result of our better inventory position and more normalized promotional activity relative to last year. And ROD is planned to be roughly flat as a percentage of sales compared to last year.

    由於通脹成本逆風,與去年相比去槓桿化約 100 個基點。這是受上半年去槓桿化約 300 個基點的推動,隨著我們受益於產品成本和運費的改善,下半年槓桿率將轉向約 100 個基點的順風。我們認為,由於我們的庫存狀況比去年更好,促銷活動比去年更正常,因此今年 100 個基點的通脹逆風可能會被完全抵消。與去年相比,ROD 計劃佔銷售額的百分比大致持平。

  • We are targeting fiscal 2023 SG&A to be down low to mid-single digits from the prior year or approximately $5.2 billion. We are planning for higher incentive compensation and wage inflation in fiscal 2023, which we expect will be fully offset by the cost savings initiatives implemented in fiscal 2022. In addition, we expect to realize roughly half of the $300 million in annualized savings that Bobby spoke to earlier in the back half of fiscal 2023. These savings will incur severance in other related costs, which will be adjusted out of fiscal 2023 reported operating and net income. We are planning capital expenditures in the range of $500 million to $550 million, largely reflecting lower technology project investments as well as fewer store openings. This year, we're planning to open 30 to 35 Old Navy and Athleta stores in total and plan to close 50 to 55 Gap and Banana Republic stores.

    我們的目標是 2023 財年的 SG&A 比上一年下降到中等個位數,即約 52 億美元。我們計劃在 2023 財年提高激勵薪酬和工資通脹,我們預計這將被 2022 財年實施的成本節約舉措完全抵消。此外,我們預計將實現 Bobby 所說的 3 億美元年度節約中的大約一半到 2023 財年下半年早些時候。這些節餘將產生其他相關成本的遣散費,這些費用將從 2023 財年報告的營業收入和淨收入中調整。我們計劃將資本支出控制在 5 億至 5.5 億美元之間,這主要反映了較低的技術項目投資以及較少的門店開張。今年,我們計劃總共開設 30 至 35 家 Old Navy 和 Athleta 門店,併計劃關閉 50 至 55 家 Gap 和 Banana Republic 門店。

  • We remain on track to achieve our goal of closing 350 nonstrategic Gap and Banana Republic stores in North America by the end of 2023 and ended fiscal 2022 having achieved close to 90% of that goal. So in closing, during what proved to be a challenging year, we moved swiftly to manage the levers in our control. We significantly reduced inventory, improved category size and assortment balance at Old Navy, aggressively manage costs, including identifying $550 million in annualized savings to date and fortified our balance sheet.

    我們仍有望實現到 2023 年底在北美關閉 350 家非戰略性 Gap 和 Banana Republic 門店的目標,並在 2022 財年結束時實現了該目標的近 90%。因此,最後,在被證明是充滿挑戰的一年中,我們迅速採取行動,管理我們控制範圍內的槓桿。我們顯著減少了 Old Navy 的庫存,改善了類別規模和分類平衡,積極管理成本,包括確定迄今為止每年節省 5.5 億美元,並強化了我們的資產負債表。

  • While we remain mindful of the continued uncertain consumer and macro environment, we are confident in the actions we're taking and believe we're taking the right steps to position Gap Inc. back on its path towards sustainable, profitable growth and delivering value for our shareholders over the long term.

    雖然我們仍然關注持續不確定的消費者和宏觀環境,但我們對我們正在採取的行動充滿信心,並相信我們正在採取正確的步驟,使 Gap Inc. 重新走上可持續、盈利增長和為客戶創造價值的道路。我們的股東長期。

  • With that, we'll open the line for questions. Operator?

    有了這個,我們將打開問題熱線。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自高盛的布魯克羅奇。

  • Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

    Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

  • My question is based on the improvements that you've made to the brand to date, what do you see as a reasonable time line to returning to consistent positive comparable sales growth for the brand? And maybe as a follow-up for Katrina, along those lines, can you help contextualize the outlook for 1Q sales down mid-single digits against that commentary of Old Navy product improvement as you cycle some of the assortment issues from last year. How was the Old Navy brand and comp Inc. quarter-to-date.

    我的問題是基於您迄今為止對品牌所做的改進,您認為該品牌恢復持續正的可比銷售增長的合理時間表是什麼?也許作為卡特里娜颶風的後續行動,沿著這些思路,當你循環去年的一些分類問題時,你能否幫助將 1Q 銷售額的前景與 Old Navy 產品改進的評論聯繫起來。 Old Navy brand and comp Inc. 季度至今情況如何。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Haio, you want to go ahead and start a little bit with your view, and then I can jump in?

    Haio,你想繼續說一下你的觀點,然後我可以加入嗎?

  • Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

    Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

  • Yes. I think on the green shoots we're seeing in Old Navy, Women's strength, the inventory cleanup, as we said in the prepared remarks, some of the green shoots we're seeing in NPS scores in the stores are giving us confidence that even though we don't call it a trend, that we are in the right direction addressing some fundamentals of the business.

    是的。我認為,正如我們在準備好的發言中所說,我們在 Old Navy、Women's strength、庫存清理中看到的綠芽,我們在商店的 NPS 分數中看到的一些綠芽讓我們有信心,即使儘管我們不稱其為趨勢,但我們正朝著正確的方向解決業務的一些基本問題。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • And I think, look, the way I would think about the quarter is we did say that Q1, we expect revenues to be down mid-singles. We gave some context around how China and foreign exchange are headwinds of about 3 points when taken together. And then really, the balance is the current trend and some macro conservatism potentially, but maybe it's really more uncertainty about sort of how the consumer will play out through the important March, April timeframe, which we know is spring break and Easter.

    而且我認為,看,我對這個季度的看法是我們確實說過第一季度,我們預計收入會下降到中單。我們給出了一些背景信息,說明中國和外匯綜合在一起時如何受到大約 3 個百分點的不利影響。然後真的,平衡是當前的趨勢和一些潛在的宏觀保守主義,但也許真正更多的是關於消費者在重要的 3 月、4 月的時間框架內如何發揮作用的不確定性,我們知道這是春假和復活節。

  • As far as by brand, I'm not going to give you the quarter-to-date trend by brand. But our commentary, I think, would talk to the fact that we're mindful of the fact that Athleta has some maybe product acceptance issues that might meet their performance in the near term. And that we're carefully watching the Banana Republic consumer for whether or not they are moderating a little bit in their workwear and sort of how to think about that. So it's fair to say that Banana and Athleta are sort of more muted in the near term based on what we're seeing with momentum building at Old Navy. But again, I want to be clear, it's good to see the trend, but March and April are really important for that brand in particular as we head into spring break and Easter.

    至於品牌,我不會按品牌給你季度至今的趨勢。但我認為,我們的評論會談到這樣一個事實,即我們注意到 Athleta 可能存在一些產品接受度問題,這些問題可能會在短期內滿足他們的表現。我們正在仔細觀察 Banana Republic 的消費者,了解他們的工作服是否有所節制,以及如何考慮這一點。因此,根據我們在 Old Navy 的勢頭建設中看到的情況,可以公平地說 Banana 和 Athleta 在短期內更加溫和。但我想再說一遍,很高興看到趨勢,但三月和四月對該品牌來說真的很重要,尤其是在我們進入春假和復活節的時候。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Bob Drbul with Guggenheim Securities.

    你的下一個問題來自古根海姆證券公司的 Bob Drbul。

  • Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD

    Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD

  • I guess just if I could stick with the Old Navy question. Haio, when you think about the environment that's out there, just in terms of pricing and the competitive positioning, how do you feel like you guys are positioned to capitalize on the environment today around the prices and the promotional cadence that you've seen? And if I could just ask a question on Old Navy -- I'm sorry, and Athleta as well. Bobby, when you think about where Athleta is today -- when you look at the leadership or the search for the leadership, can you just talk about exactly what you think does need to be repositioned around the brand overall as you look forward?

    我想如果我能堅持老海軍問題。 Haio,當你考慮那裡的環境時,就定價和競爭定位而言,你覺得你們如何定位以利用今天圍繞你所看到的價格和促銷節奏的環境?如果我能問一個關於 Old Navy 的問題——對不起,還有 Athleta。 Bobby,當你想到 Athleta 今天的位置時——當你審視領導層或尋找領導層時,你能不能準確地談談你認為在你期待的時候圍繞品牌整體重新定位的內容?

  • Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

    Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

  • Thank you for the question. I think on the importance of starting this year, cleaner in inventories giving room to newness, a little bit of scarcity, some novelty on work forward. So we foresee a lower level of promotional aggressiveness. We may see intensity, but not aggressiveness. And I think when you see the initial product acceptance around Spring, for example, is a good indication that we're having a healthy balance, and that was something that we wanted to remove from last year as we were having big areas of clearance and some product challenges. So we're monitoring very, very close after the big effort of reducing the inventory to current levels.

    感謝你的提問。我認為從今年開始的重要性,清點庫存,給新鮮事物、一點稀缺性、一些新奇的工作留出空間。因此,我們預見到較低水平的促銷積極性。我們可能會看到強度,但看不到侵略性。我認為,例如,當您看到春季前後的初步產品接受度時,這很好地表明我們正在保持健康的平衡,而這是我們希望從去年移除的東西,因為我們有很大的清關區域和一些產品挑戰。因此,在將庫存減少到當前水平的巨大努力之後,我們正在非常、非常密切地進行監控。

  • Bobby L. Martin - Executive Chairman of the Board, Interim President & Interim CEO

    Bobby L. Martin - Executive Chairman of the Board, Interim President & Interim CEO

  • Bob, this is Bobby. On Athleta, just to address your question. I think we really double underlined it in my remarks when I said it all comes down to product. And I think the acceptance issues that we've seen from customers is really where I think we've not really hit the right stride with them in performance.

    鮑勃,這是鮑比。在 Athleta 上,只是為了解決你的問題。當我說一切都歸結為產品時,我認為我們在我的評論中確實加倍強調了這一點。而且我認為我們從客戶那裡看到的驗收問題確實是我認為我們在性能方面沒有真正邁出正確步伐的地方。

  • We've lost a little bit of the franchise really around our basics in that area and where clearly, we always have to be on top of it, whether it's color or style or whatever. We just had too many misses in there. And right now, plagued with some execution issues, I would say, around depth. Those things have really kind of dampened I think the recovery as we have moved back toward performance. There are strong points in the assortment. So I don't want to miss that. I mean, today, low and bottoms, knit bottoms are performing pretty well. Everything in our basic assortments. Jumpsuits right now are trending well. And we've hit some of those items, but the consistency of performance against that customer who she is, the style that she's looking for, we are just not on target yet. So it really comes around to, I think, getting that design, that's styling right and get it where it's delivered to her in an experience that she's looking for.

    我們在該領域的基礎知識方面已經失去了一些特許經營權,而且很明顯,我們必須始終處於領先地位,無論是顏色還是款式等等。我們在那裡有太多失誤。而現在,我想說的是,圍繞深度存在一些執行問題。這些事情確實有點抑制了我認為隨著我們回到性能上的複蘇。該品種有優點。所以我不想錯過那個。我的意思是,今天,低幫和下裝,針織下裝表現相當不錯。我們基本分類中的一切。連身褲現在很流行。我們已經達到了其中的一些項目,但是針對她所尋找的客戶的性能一致性,她正在尋找的風格,我們還沒有達到目標。因此,我認為,它真的涉及到獲得該設計,即正確的樣式,並在她正在尋找的體驗中將其交付給她。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.

    您的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Lorraine Hutchinson。

  • Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

    Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

  • I wanted to hear a little bit more about the inventory planning for this year. It sounds like you're able to return to using responsive capabilities. And I was just curious what percentage of the assortment does that apply to at Old Navy? And then are you able to use that in your other brands as well?

    我想多聽聽今年的庫存計劃。聽起來您可以恢復使用響應功能。我只是很好奇 Old Navy 適用於該分類的百分比是多少?然後你也能在你的其他品牌中使用它嗎?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Maybe I'll start off just talking a little bit again about some of the numbers and what the commentary today was and then I will let Haio talk may be more conceptually about how they're leveraging responses. We are really, really pleased that we used the opportunities in fourth quarter to clear, albeit at lower margins, the markdown inventory that has sort of plagued us through the last 3 quarters to start off this year with what we would consider to be well-positioned liability inventory heading into the quarter. So we're happy to have achieved that.

    也許我會開始再談談一些數字和今天的評論,然後我會讓 Haio 談談他們如何利用回應的概念。我們真的非常高興我們利用第四季度的機會清除了過去 3 個季度困擾我們的降價庫存,儘管利潤率較低,但我們認為今年開始的時候會很好-進入本季度的負債庫存。所以我們很高興實現了這一目標。

  • I think that not only gives us the opportunity to pull back on the discounting in markdowns, but it really gives us the opportunity to have room to bring in newness through these responsive capabilities, and that's an important thing. We did not have enough newness in fourth quarter, which really muted some of the performance because we had so much markdown carryovers that we had to get through. So this gives us the opportunity to showcase our new product and then also bring in new products as we see things trending.

    我認為這不僅讓我們有機會在降價促銷中取消折扣,而且它確實讓我們有機會通過這些響應能力有空間帶來新鮮感,這是一件重要的事情。我們在第四季度沒有足夠的新鮮感,這確實削弱了一些表現,因為我們有太多的降價結轉,我們必須通過。因此,這讓我們有機會展示我們的新產品,然後在我們看到趨勢時也引入新產品。

  • So we feel like we've got a lot more breathing room. As we look forward, we will not only have lower initial buys, but we will be chasing into trends. And so this should give us, again, a much better stock-to-sales ratio as we move forward. And we expect that overall inventory will be lower than sales, as we said. So with that, we've not quantified how much response is, but it's in the form of chase. It's in the form of vendor-managed inventory, which allows us to reflow in-stock levels and then some reorder capabilities, all of which should give us opportunities.

    所以我們覺得我們有更多的喘息空間。展望未來,我們不僅會降低初始購買量,而且會追逐趨勢。因此,隨著我們的前進,這應該會再次為我們提供更好的庫存與銷售比率。正如我們所說,我們預計整體庫存將低於銷售額。因此,我們還沒有量化有多少反應,但它是以追逐的形式出現的。它採用供應商管理庫存的形式,允許我們回流庫存水平,然後再訂購一些功能,所有這些都應該給我們機會。

  • So Haio, I don't know, if you want to talk about how you're...

    所以 Haio,我不知道,如果你想談談你是如何......

  • Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

    Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

  • I think, well said, with supply chain being less disruptive and lead-time variability coming to normal levels. I think responsiveness is not going to be -- the main focus is a contingency mechanism and we want to get it right in the -- in our assortment, and that's where the focus is. But the supply chain stability will really help us on leveraging our strength.

    我認為,說得好,隨著供應鏈的破壞性降低,交貨時間的可變性達到正常水平。我認為響應不會 - 主要焦點是應急機制,我們希望在 - 在我們的分類中得到它,這就是重點所在。但是供應鏈的穩定性確實會幫助我們發揮我們的優勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Alex Straton with Morgan Stanley.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Alex Straton。

  • Alexandra Ann Straton - Research Associate

    Alexandra Ann Straton - Research Associate

  • I wanted to just drill down on those $550 million in annualized savings you all were speaking about on the call. I just want to understand what is the base that this is off of. And then can you also help us understand what's offsetting it with that severance piece? Do you get a sense of like the net savings you're speaking to? And any color you can give us in terms of like the breakdown of that $550 million, like what the buckets are that are comprising it?

    我只想深入了解你們在電話會議上都談到的 5.5 億美元年化儲蓄。我只想了解這是什麼基礎。然後你也能幫助我們了解是什麼抵消了那件遣散費嗎?您對您所說的淨儲蓄有感覺嗎?你可以給我們任何顏色,比如這 5.5 億美元的細目,比如組成它的桶是什麼?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Alex, it's Katrina. So we did say that we expect full year '23 SG&A to be about $5.2 billion. So hopefully, that helps you with the number we're aiming for. How we get there is we did talk last year about $250 million of annualized savings. That broke out into 3 buckets. It was $125 million of headcount that was really early actions on closing open roles and really tightening our belt immediately as we realized that the cost structure was just too high.

    亞歷克斯,這是卡特里娜颶風。所以我們確實說過,我們預計 23 年全年的 SG&A 約為 52 億美元。希望這可以幫助您實現我們的目標數字。我們是如何做到這一點的,去年我們確實談到了 2.5 億美元的年度節省。分成 3 個桶。這是 1.25 億美元的員工人數,這確實是關閉空缺職位並真正收緊腰帶的早期行動,因為我們意識到成本結構太高了。

  • We had $75 million of marketing expense that we were able to pull back on based on contract negotiations and about $50 million of savings that was really tech. And again, that was primarily headcount. So all of those actions we nodded to last year, and those will largely be annualized in the base of 2023. Now we did say that, that's almost fully offset by the bonus reset as we didn't pay management incentives last year as well as some inflationary pressures.

    我們有 7500 萬美元的營銷費用可以根據合同談判收回,還有大約 5000 萬美元的節省是真正的技術。再一次,這主要是人數。因此,我們去年點頭同意的所有這些行動,這些行動將在 2023 年的基礎上進行年化。現在我們確實說過,這幾乎完全被獎金重置所抵消,因為我們去年沒有支付管理激勵以及一些通脹壓力。

  • So I would think of those 2 as largely offsetting. And then the new news is that we've now identified $300 million of incremental savings that is related to some of the management changes we talked about today, but also a broader reorganization that we are embarking on to really unlock the potential of the company, that will hit partially this year because we've announced it today. And as you can imagine, we're embarking on the work. and that will probably get done in order to benefit the back half of the year, but then that will also anniversaried into next year.

    所以我認為這兩個在很大程度上是抵消的。然後新消息是,我們現在已經確定了 3 億美元的增量節省,這與我們今天談到的一些管理變革有關,而且我們正在著手進行更廣泛的重組,以真正釋放公司的潛力,這將在今年部分受到影響,因為我們今天已經宣布了。正如您所想像的,我們正在著手開展這項工作。這可能會完成,以便在今年下半年受益,但那也將在明年舉行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Group.

    你的下一個問題來自 Telsey Group 的 Dana Telsey。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • As you think about the cost structure and the opportunity where you mentioned rationalized technology investments, optimize marketing, what are we talking about there? How big of a benefit could that be? And what do you see about the operational go forward from there? And then just on the real estate portion of the business, what are you seeing in terms of shrinkage? How is that looking? And the investment in what we're all hearing about higher cry with shrinkage, things like that? How are you thinking of that? And does it at all influence the cadence of store openings or closings?

    當您考慮成本結構和您提到合理化技術投資、優化營銷的機會時,我們在談論什麼?那會有多大的好處呢?您對從那裡開始的運營有何看法?然後就業務的房地產部分而言,您在收縮方面看到了什麼?看起來怎麼樣?以及對我們都聽到的關於收縮的更高哭聲的投資,諸如此類的事情?你怎麼想的?它是否會影響商店開張或關門的節奏?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So on the cost restructuring, we agree that we have more to do on costs than what we've announced today. So we're really happy that we've identified the $550 million. What we'd like to do is get through this fairly large organizational change. And then from there have the operating leaders in place and the operating model in place to really evaluate the next levers, which you just identified, marketing and technology to see the right level of where those will land. So more to come, but we agree there is more in the cost structure of the company that needs to get unlocked. And as we identify that, we'll let you know.

    是的。因此,在成本重組方面,我們同意我們在成本方面要做的事情比我們今天宣布的要多。所以我們真的很高興我們已經確定了 5.5 億美元。我們想要做的是完成這個相當大的組織變革。然後從那裡開始,運營領導者和運營模式就位,以真正評估您剛剛確定的下一個槓桿,即營銷和技術,以了解它們落地的正確水平。所以還有更多,但我們同意公司的成本結構中有更多需要解鎖。當我們確定這一點時,我們會通知您。

  • On the shrink side of things, we're hearing that, too, and we've certainly been watching what competitors have said. We're sort of in the middle of our current full annual shrink. And so far, we don't have anything to preview that would indicate that there's anything materially changing. But certainly, if we see something, we'll absolutely report it out. But right now, we're not seeing that trend at Gap Inc.

    在收縮方面,我們也聽到了,我們當然一直在關注競爭對手的說法。我們正處於當前的全年縮水期。到目前為止,我們沒有任何可以預示有任何實質性變化的預覽。但可以肯定的是,如果我們看到什麼,我們絕對會報告出來。但現在,我們在 Gap Inc. 沒有看到這種趨勢。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • And just lastly, what's your overall view on the health of the consumer? How is it different now than maybe going into the fourth quarter? And is it different by brand of what you're seeing from the income level stratas that you [expressed too]?

    最後,您對消費者健康的總體看法是什麼?現在與可能進入第四季度有何不同?從你[也表達]的收入水平階層中看到的品牌是否有所不同?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. I mean I'm happy to take that. And then certainly, as Bobby and Haio want to jump in. When we look at the data, we still see that the lowest income consumer is impacted. Now what we see is that, that took a pretty big leg down in the middle of last year, but it stayed about where it is now as we move through Q4. And again, that primarily impacts Old Navy and then some of our outlet consumers. We've seen a little softening throughout the rest of the consumer base, but nothing material. I think, Dana, we're just watching the news and the economic levers that everyone else is and trying to be prudent about whether or not we will see weakness once the savings that are still accumulated start to spend down.

    當然。我的意思是我很樂意接受。當然,Bobby 和 Haio 也想加入進來。當我們查看數據時,我們仍然看到收入最低的消費者受到了影響。現在我們看到的是,去年年中大幅下跌,但隨著我們進入第四季度,它仍然保持在現在的水平。同樣,這主要影響 Old Navy,然後是我們的一些直銷店消費者。我們已經看到其他消費者群體有所軟化,但沒有什麼實質性的。我想,Dana,我們只是在關注新聞和其他人的經濟槓桿,並試圖謹慎對待一旦仍然積累的儲蓄開始花掉我們是否會看到疲軟。

  • But I think beyond that, I don't know, if Bobby or Haio, if there's anything else you'd add.

    但我認為除此之外,我不知道,如果 Bobby 或 Haio,您是否還有其他要添加的內容。

  • Bobby L. Martin - Executive Chairman of the Board, Interim President & Interim CEO

    Bobby L. Martin - Executive Chairman of the Board, Interim President & Interim CEO

  • No. I think -- I mean, again, it's really too speculative to really point to very much. How you are going to do this, interesting is I know you're hearing from others. You are going to see signs of customers going back to store. That's an interesting trend to watch. We obviously are tracking units per transaction on visits to really just kind of judge that. But it's certainly, I'd say, a cautious outlook to stay on top of and Old Navy, probably we would have our better read. What we're seeing there. So you make comment Haio.

    不,我認為 - 我的意思是,它真的太投機了,無法真正指出很多。您將如何執行此操作,有趣的是我知道您正在聽取其他人的意見。您將看到顧客返回商店的跡象。這是一個值得關注的有趣趨勢。顯然,我們正在跟踪每筆交易的訪問單位,以真正做出判斷。但我肯定會說,保持謹慎的前景和 Old Navy,我們可能會有更好的閱讀。我們在那裡看到的。所以你發表評論哈哈。

  • Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

    Horacio Barbeito - President & CEO - Old Navy

  • Yes. I am acknowledging that there is -- the outlook is somewhat concerning the state of the consumer, but nothing to call out specifically other than say that our value proposition position us well for whatever may come our way. So as I mentioned, there are some things that depend on us to be a better Old Navy despite of the context.

    是的。我承認存在 - 前景在某種程度上與消費者的狀況有關,但除了說我們的價值主張使我們能夠很好地應對任何可能發生的事情之外,沒有什麼可以特別指出的。因此,正如我提到的,儘管有一些背景,但有些事情取決於我們成為更好的老海軍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

    你的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

  • Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

    Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

  • So Katrina, on the top line, could you just help bridge the drivers embedded between the mid-single-digit decline in 1Q? And in the low to mid-single-digit decline for the year. And then at Old Navy, just the confidence on peeling back some of the promotional activity despite the demand softness that you cited from the lower-income consumer at the concept over holiday would be helpful.

    所以卡特里娜颶風,最重要的是,你能否幫助彌合第一季度中個位數下降之間嵌入的驅動因素?並且在今年的中低個位數下降。然後在 Old Navy,儘管您在假日概念中引用低收入消費者的需求疲軟,但僅憑信心取消一些促銷活動將有所幫助。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So Matt, on the revenue side of things, for first quarter, again, we said negative mid-singles with about 3 points being China and foreign exchange. And then really, the rest is about a view on what the trends coming out of fourth quarter and maybe conservative macro outlook is.

    是的。所以馬特,在收入方面,對於第一季度,我們再次表示負中單,其中約 3 個百分點是中國和外匯。然後真的,剩下的就是對第四季度趨勢的看法,也許是保守的宏觀前景。

  • On the full year, the low to mid-singles really has 2 points of China but then 1 point of the 53rd week. So about 1 point impact to a year-over-year growth. And then really, it's about taking a position on the trend plus the macroeconomic environment, which, again, we're really trying to take a prudent approach because think we're all watching what's happening and not 100% clear where the consumer will go as we move through the year.

    從全年來看,中低單打確實有中國隊的2分,但第53週的1分。因此,對同比增長的影響約為 1 點。然後真的,這是關於對趨勢和宏觀經濟環境採取立場,再次,我們真的試圖採取謹慎的方法,因為認為我們都在觀察正在發生的事情,而不是 100% 清楚消費者的去向隨著我們度過這一年。

  • I think as it relates to maybe in the promotional environment, I think what's really important for us to recognize is a significant portion of the margin drain whether it was at Old Navy or other banners last year was because we just had too much inventory for the demand. And so the quality of that pricing and margin was really poor because we were focused on clearing it. Now what we have is better inventory, but with what we think is a good value proposition that we think will still serve the Old Navy consumer, but with better balance on what we like to compete on, which is fashion, style, price, fit, all the things that matter. So I think we'll still have a good value proposition for the lower-income consumer. We just won't have that glut of markdown inventory. So I just see it as better quality value for them.

    我認為這可能與促銷環境有關,我認為對我們來說真正重要的是認識到去年無論是在 Old Navy 還是其他橫幅上,利潤流失的很大一部分是因為我們的庫存太多了要求。因此,定價和利潤率的質量真的很差,因為我們專注於清理它。現在我們擁有的是更好的庫存,但我們認為這是一個很好的價值主張,我們認為它仍將服務於 Old Navy 消費者,但在我們喜歡競爭的方面有更好的平衡,即時尚、款式、價格、合身性,所有重要的事情。所以我認為我們對低收入消費者仍然有一個很好的價值主張。我們只是不會有那麼多的降價庫存。所以我認為這對他們來說是更好的質量價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Jay Sole with UBS.

    你的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。

  • Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury

    Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury

  • Katrina, I want to follow up on that question. I think you mentioned that in your gross margin guidance for the year, you assume ROD as flat. I assume you mean that as a percentage of sales. Can you give us an idea of what the comp leverage point is for ROD?

    卡特里娜颶風,我想跟進這個問題。我想你在今年的毛利率指導中提到,你假設 ROD 持平。我假設你的意思是佔銷售額的百分比。你能告訴我們 ROD 的補償槓桿點是多少嗎?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I'm glad you asked that, Jay. So on the full year, you're absolutely right, so thanks for clarifying. We did say that, I mean, ROD's basically neutral to leverage on the year. And I just said that low to mid-single-digit revenue declines is what we're expecting.

    是的。很高興你這麼問,傑。所以在全年,你是絕對正確的,所以感謝你的澄清。我們確實說過,我的意思是,ROD 對這一年的影響基本上是中性的。我剛剛說過,中低個位數的收入下降是我們所期望的。

  • So I think that's a good benchmark for you on given how low we've driven the ROD structure of the company, what's the right way to think about leverage is.

    所以我認為這對你來說是一個很好的基準,因為我們已經將公司的 ROD 結構推向了多低,思考槓桿的正確方法是什麼。

  • Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury

    Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury

  • So I mean, can we assume that just the way the company has negotiated leases that the year-over-year, like the comp and leases is actually negative that you're seeing less rent? Or is it just the store closures have led to less overall ROD expense?

    所以我的意思是,我們是否可以假設公司協商租賃的方式與去年同期相比實際上是負面的,你看到的租金減少了?或者僅僅是商店關閉導致整體 ROD 費用減少?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • It's really the store closures. And I would say the partnerships of our international businesses, which had such high rent structures. So I think it's really all the restructuring work, Jay, that we've done, has finally given us some relief on the rent leverage point where we can run now, not that we want to, but low to mid-single digits and still not see drag on the cost structure based on how low we brought down that portfolio of expense.

    真的是關店了我要說的是我們國際業務的合作夥伴關係,它們的租金結構如此之高。所以我認為這真的是我們所做的所有重組工作,傑伊,終於讓我們在租金槓桿點上有所緩解,我們現在可以運行,不是我們想要的,而是低到中個位數,而且仍然根據我們將費用組合降低到多低,看不到對成本結構的拖累。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Adrienne Yih with Barclays.

    你的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Adrienne Yih。

  • Adrienne Eugenia Yih-Tennant - MD, Senior eCommerce & Brand Retailing Analyst

    Adrienne Eugenia Yih-Tennant - MD, Senior eCommerce & Brand Retailing Analyst

  • A couple of questions. The first, I guess, is the comment on Banana Republic sort of moderating. And I know that there was a big return to work occasion kind of spring of last year. Would that imply that quarter-to-date is running in the negative range.

    幾個問題。我想,首先是對 Banana Republic 的評論有點緩和。而且我知道去年春天有一個很大的重返工作場合。這是否意味著季度至今處於負範圍內。

  • And then secondarily, could you talk about your credit card penetration by brand and its ability to acquire new customers as a new customer acquisition tool. And then what was the annual income from that piece of the business?

    其次,你能談談你的信用卡品牌滲透率及其作為新客戶獲取工具獲取新客戶的能力嗎?那麼這塊業務的年收入是多少?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. So Adrienne, I would say BR, we recognize that BR has been through a massive repositioning over the last 1.5 years, and we're still really proud of the way Banana Republic is showing up to the consumer. Right now, they are lapping the massive business that they had last year based on the revenue trend change as well as the relaunch. So I'm not going to preview whether they're negative or not, but I will say that as they lap those results, we're watching carefully to see that the sales trends might moderate.

    當然。所以 Adrienne,我想說 BR,我們認識到 BR 在過去 1.5 年中經歷了大規模的重新定位,我們仍然為 Banana Republic 向消費者展示的方式感到自豪。現在,他們正在根據收入趨勢變化和重新啟動來處理去年的龐大業務。所以我不打算預測它們是否是負面的,但我會說,當他們對這些結果進行評估時,我們正在仔細觀察,看看銷售趨勢是否會放緩。

  • And then on the credit card data, I'm sure you can imagine, I can't disclose the credit card income. We don't disclose that. What I will say is we just partnered with Barclays new credit card partner with us from Synchrony last spring. We've been working hard with them to put in place new ways of being able to speak to our consumer. And we see credit card as a very important way to drive the pinnacle of lifetime value with our consumers.

    然後在信用卡數據上,相信大家也能想像得到,我不能透露信用卡收入。我們不會透露這一點。我要說的是,去年春天我們剛剛與來自 Synchrony 的巴克萊新信用卡合作夥伴合作。我們一直在努力與他們合作,以採用新的方式與我們的消費者交流。我們將信用卡視為推動消費者終身價值達到頂峰的一種非常重要的方式。

  • So I would say credit card is more sophisticated. We launched our loyalty program. I think we have work to do now that we've acquired customers to better move them up through the lifetime value chain. But credit card continues to be important across all of our brands to speak to our most valuable customers.

    所以我會說信用卡更複雜。我們推出了忠誠度計劃。我認為我們現在有工作要做,因為我們已經獲得了客戶,可以更好地將他們提升到整個生命週期價值鏈。但信用卡在我們所有品牌中仍然很重要,可以與我們最有價值的客戶交流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question will come from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citi Group.

    我們的最後一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Paul Lejuez。

  • Paul Lawrence Lejuez - MD and Senior Analyst

    Paul Lawrence Lejuez - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Can you maybe talk about your free cash flow assumptions for F '23. Also, I think you mentioned Old Navy pulled some sales forward from 4Q into 3Q. But do you think Old Navy maybe also maybe pulled sales into 4Q at the expense of 1Q just given how promotional you were to get your inventories clean. And then just going back to Adrienne's question on credit. What do you expect in terms of year-over-year change in credit revenues? Are you planning for that business to be up, down, flat? Any color you can give there.

    你能談談你對 F '23 的自由現金流假設嗎?另外,我想你提到 Old Navy 將一些銷售額從第四季度提前到第三季度。但你是否認為 Old Navy 也可能以犧牲第一季度為代價將銷售額拉入第四季度,只是考慮到你為清理庫存所做的促銷活動。然後回到 Adrienne 關於信用的問題。您對信貸收入的同比變化有何預期?您是否計劃讓該業務上升、下降或持平?你可以給那裡任何顏色。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay, Paul, that's a triple. So on free cash flow, I think, first of all, while overall free cash flow for the year was down $78 million, I'm really pleased that we were able to see the reversion in fourth quarter that we've been working towards, which was free cash flow of about $600 million in fourth quarter once we were able to really get the inventory receipts down. So good progress on free cash flow. .

    好吧,保羅,那是三重奏。所以關於自由現金流,我認為,首先,雖然今年整體自由現金流下降了 7800 萬美元,但我真的很高興我們能夠看到我們一直在努力實現的第四季度的逆轉,一旦我們能夠真正降低庫存收據,第四季度的自由現金流量約為 6 億美元。自由現金流方面取得如此良好的進展。 .

  • I would say more to come on how we see the year playing out. We did say we plan at some point during the year to repay our ABL, which means that as we continue to have lower receipts, lower expenses and release pack and hold and start generating sales off of that, we do see that we're getting back into a much healthier cash position, more to come on whether that how free cash flow happens during the year.

    我會說更多關於我們如何看待這一年的結果。我們確實說過我們計劃在今年的某個時候償還我們的 ABL,這意味著隨著我們繼續減少收入、減少支出和發布包裝並持有並開始產生銷售,我們確實看到我們正在回到更健康的現金狀況,更多的是關於自由現金流在這一年中如何發生。

  • On the Q4 Old Navy question, it's funny because it's actually the opposite where we actually saw our December sales take a dip unlike what I think other competitors have said because we had cut holiday receipts, and we were carrying a lot of fall inventory. So our ownership of inventory in the quarter was a little off for what the consumer wanted. But once we were able to get holiday receipts down and start clearing through the inventory at markdowns, we were able to bring in spring and really see the business rebound. So I think that actually gives us confidence that the new product is resonating. As we talked about, we have markdown behind us and so there's room for us to be chasing.

    關於 Q4 Old Navy 的問題,這很有趣,因為它實際上與我們實際看到我們 12 月銷售額下降的情況相反,這與我認為其他競爭對手所說的不同,因為我們削減了假期收入,而且我們有大量秋季庫存。因此,我們本季度的庫存所有權與消費者的需求略有不同。但是,一旦我們能夠減少假期收據並開始在降價促銷時清理庫存,我們就能迎來春天並真正看到業務反彈。所以我認為這實際上讓我們相信新產品會引起共鳴。正如我們所說,我們已經降價了,所以我們有追逐的空間。

  • So I think Q4 was just sort of a confluence of maybe not the best content of inventory, we feel better about going forward. And then on credit card, again, I'm not going to guide to that. I think we see similar dynamics, which is credit headwinds, right, based on interest rates and all that other stuff, but we're working hard to offset that with aggressively looking to acquire customers. So more to come on where that program comes out, but we are pulling all levers that we have to keep that going. We know that's a very important part of the business.

    所以我認為第四季度可能不是最好的庫存內容的匯合,我們對前進感覺更好。然後再一次關於信用卡,我不打算對此進行指導。我認為我們看到了類似的動態,這是基於利率和所有其他因素的信貸逆風,正確的,但我們正在努力通過積極尋求獲得客戶來抵消這種影響。在該計劃推出的地方還有更多的事情要做,但我們正在拉動我們必須保持下去的所有槓桿。我們知道這是業務中非常重要的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude our conference call. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。這確實結束了我們的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。