蓋璞 (GPS) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Hannah, and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to The Gap, Inc. First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    下午好,女士們,先生們。我的名字是漢娜,今天我將成為您的會議接線員。我想歡迎大家參加 The Gap, Inc. 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to introduce your host, Cammeron McLaughlin, Head of Investor Relations.

    我現在想介紹一下您的主持人,投資者關係主管 Cammeron McLaughlin。

  • Cammeron McLaughlin

    Cammeron McLaughlin

  • Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Gap Inc.'s First Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

    大家下午好。歡迎參加 Gap Inc. 的 2022 財年第一季度收益電話會議。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that the information made available on this webcast and conference call contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause our actual results to be materially different. For information on factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements as well as the description and reconciliation of any financial measures not consistent with generally accepted accounting principles, please refer to the cautionary statements contained in our latest earnings release; the information included on Page 2 of the slides shown on the Investors section of our website, gapinc.com, which supplement today's remarks the risk factors described in the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 15, 2022; and any subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, all of which are available on gapinc.com. These forward-looking statements are based on information as of today, May 26, 2022, and we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise our forward-looking statements.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,本次網絡廣播和電話會議上提供的信息包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的風險。有關可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的信息,以及任何不符合公認會計原則的財務指標的描述和調節,請參閱我們最新收益發布中包含的警示性聲明;我們網站 gapinc.com 的“投資者”部分顯示的幻燈片第 2 頁上包含的信息,補充了今天的評論,該公司於 3 月 15 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中描述的風險因素, 2022;以及隨後向證券交易委員會提交的任何文件,所有這些文件都可以在 gapinc.com 上找到。這些前瞻性陳述基於截至今天 2022 年 5 月 26 日的信息,我們不承擔公開更新或修改我們的前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • Joining me on the call today are Chief Executive Officer, Sonia Syngal; and Chief Financial Officer, Katrina O'Connell.

    今天和我一起參加電話會議的是首席執行官 Sonia Syngal;和首席財務官,卡特里娜奧康奈爾。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Sonia.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給索尼婭。

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our Q1 results and updated fiscal 2022 outlook primarily reflect industry-wide headwinds as well as challenges at Old Navy that are impacting our near-term performance. While we're disappointed to deliver results below expectations, we are confident in our ability to navigate the headwinds and restabilize the Old Navy business in order to deliver on our long-term strategy. This current period of acute disruption has clarified the urgency of improvements necessary to put us back on track towards delivering growth, margin expansion and value for our shareholders over the long term.

    大家下午好,感謝您加入我們。我們的第一季度業績和更新的 2022 財年展望主要反映了全行業的不利因素以及影響我們近期業績的 Old Navy 面臨的挑戰。雖然我們對交付低於預期的結果感到失望,但我們對我們克服逆風並重新穩定老海軍業務以實現我們的長期戰略的能力充滿信心。當前這一嚴重中斷時期已經闡明了改善的緊迫性,以使我們重回正軌,為我們的股東實現長期增長、利潤率擴張和價值。

  • We have updated our full year outlook to reflect the following factors that are impacting near-term performance. First, the majority of the sales and earnings reduction from our prior guidance stems from Old Navy, primarily assortment imbalances and lower-than-anticipated demand in key categories like active, fleece and kids and baby; secondarily, product acceptance issues; and thirdly, challenges related to the launch of BODEQUALITY, Old Navy's extended-size initiative. We expect the issues at Old Navy, which we estimate are negatively impacting fiscal 2022 diluted EPS by approximately $0.90 to $1, to largely resolve by the end of the fiscal year as we take necessary actions to rightsize the assortment and reengage responsive supply chain capabilities. And I will address this in more detail shortly. While the primary impact of soft demand in active, fleece and kids and baby is being felt at Old Navy, our Gap and Athleta brands are not immune to this customer shift.

    我們更新了全年展望,以反映以下影響近期業績的因素。首先,我們之前指導的大部分銷售額和收入減少源於 Old Navy,主要是分類不平衡以及運動、羊毛、兒童和嬰兒等關鍵類別的需求低於預期;其次,產品驗收問題;第三,與推出舊海軍擴大規模倡議 BODEQUALITY 相關的挑戰。我們預計 Old Navy 的問題(我們估計這些問題對 2022 財年攤薄後的每股收益產生了約 0.90 美元至 1 美元的負面影響)將在本財年結束時基本解決,因為我們將採取必要行動來調整分類規模並重新啟用響應式供應鏈能力。我將在稍後更詳細地討論這個問題。雖然 Old Navy 感受到了運動服、羊毛衫、兒童和嬰兒用品需求疲軟的主要影響,但我們的 Gap 和 Athleta 品牌也不能倖免於這種客戶轉變。

  • Second, we are keeping a conservative posture as it relates to the impact of inflation on our cost and on our customer. Our revised fiscal 2022 outlook contemplates modest incremental fuel costs and hourly labor headwinds, consistent with many others in our industry. We entered the first quarter anticipating a slowdown as we lap the impact of the stimulus of the prior year. However, we began to experience a more profound weakness during the quarter at Old Navy and, to a lesser degree, at Gap North America as those brands were most exposed to the rising inflationary environment impacting our lower-income customer. Accordingly, we have taken a more cautious consumer outlook and are moderating our top line growth expectations as reflected in our revised guidance.

    其次,我們保持保守的態度,因為這與通貨膨脹對我們的成本和客戶的影響有關。我們修訂後的 2022 財年展望考慮到適度增加的燃料成本和每小時的勞動力逆風,這與我們行業中的許多其他人一致。我們進入第一季度時預計會放緩,因為我們會考慮上一年刺激措施的影響。然而,我們在本季度開始在 Old Navy 以及在較小程度上在 Gap North America 遇到更嚴重的弱點,因為這些品牌最容易受到影響我們低收入客戶的通脹環境的影響。因此,我們對消費者前景採取了更為謹慎的態度,並正在調整我們修訂後的指引中反映的收入增長預期。

  • And third, Gap brand is experiencing a slowdown in Asia largely as a result of the COVID-related forced lockdown and slowed overall demand in China which began in late March. While we believe that these are transitory factors impacting our business in Asia, we are anticipating that the demand environment remains muted.

    第三,Gap 品牌在亞洲正在經歷放緩,這主要是由於與 COVID 相關的強制封鎖和從 3 月下旬開始的中國整體需求放緩。雖然我們認為這些都是影響我們在亞洲業務的暫時性因素,但我們預計需求環境仍然低迷。

  • Let me now spend some time on the factors impacting Old Navy. As we shared last quarter, we expected tough first half compares driven by moderate product delays due to supply chain disruptions last year as well as lapping the brand's disproportionate benefit from last year's stimulus. In addition, we also expected continued assortment imbalances given the numerous pivots to fashion, such as dresses, pants and tops, which were underrepresented in Old Navy's women's product mix. Old Navy was especially disadvantaged given their leadership in fleece, active and kids and baby, categories that grew significantly during the height of the pandemic and experienced lower-than-expected demand during the first quarter. But as the quarter progressed, we identified additional factors that I will walk you through now.

    現在讓我花點時間談談影響 Old Navy 的因素。正如我們上個季度所分享的那樣,我們預計由於去年供應鏈中斷導致的適度產品延遲以及該品牌從去年的刺激措施中獲得的不成比例的好處,導致上半年的業績比較艱難。此外,我們還預計,鑑於時尚的眾多支點,例如連衣裙、褲子和上衣,這些產品在 Old Navy 的女裝產品組合中的代表性不足。 Old Navy 尤其處於不利地位,因為他們在羊毛、運動服、兒童和嬰兒服裝領域處於領先地位,這些類別在大流行高峰期間顯著增長,並且在第一季度的需求低於預期。但隨著本季度的進展,我們確定了我現在將帶您了解的其他因素。

  • When spring product finally began to arrive in March, and it will maybe continue to experience softness, we conducted a deep diagnostic of the business, and it became apparent we also had product acceptance issues. Old Navy's women's assortment and inventory mix continues to be out of sync with the change in consumer category preference, and the fashion choices we did have did not resonate with her.

    當春季產品在 3 月份終於開始到貨,並且可能會繼續疲軟時,我們對業務進行了深入診斷,很明顯我們也存在產品驗收問題。 Old Navy 的女裝品類和庫存組合繼續與消費者類別偏好的變化不同步,我們所做的時尚選擇並沒有引起她的共鳴。

  • Historically, speed and agility have been strong levers at the brand. However, supply chain challenges and persistent delays significantly limited the brand's responsive abilities. 12-week pipelines for core categories have been critical to the success of Old Navy over the years. Reverting to a longer inventory push model not only diluted economic value but meant we were defining customer trends too early in the process and we're unable to chase into the right fashion choices closer in. This resulted in excess inventory and less relevant styles that will pressure sales in the short term while we rebalance the assortment going forward. As a family brand, this has a compound halo effect. When we aren't delivering for moms, she's less likely to come to Old Navy for her kids.

    從歷史上看,速度和敏捷性一直是該品牌的強大槓桿。然而,供應鏈挑戰和持續延誤極大地限制了該品牌的響應能力。多年來,核心類別的 12 週管道對於 Old Navy 的成功至關重要。恢復到更長的庫存推動模式不僅稀釋了經濟價值,而且意味著我們在此過程中過早地定義了客戶趨勢,我們無法在更近的時間內找到正確的時尚選擇。這導致庫存過剩和相關性降低,這將導致在短期內給銷售帶來壓力,同時我們在未來重新平衡分類。作為一個家族品牌,這具有復合光環效應。當我們不為媽媽們分娩時,她不太可能為她的孩子來老海軍。

  • An additional factor impacting Old Navy's performance is that we lean too heavily on the brand's inclusive sizing launch product quality. While pleased with some of the early indicators, such as the new customer acquisition and increased brand health, we overestimated demand in stores. While we believe that product quality is right for today's consumer and delivers on Old Navy's mission to democratize styles, we launched too broadly and too quickly. We overplanned larger sizes with customer demand under-pacing supply, leading to an excessive inventory across stores. This issue was exacerbated by the out-of-stock in core sizes due to the continued supply chain disruption and inventory delays.

    影響 Old Navy 表現的另一個因素是,我們過於依賴品牌的包容性尺碼發布產品質量。雖然對一些早期指標感到滿意,例如新客戶的獲取和品牌健康度的提高,但我們高估了商店的需求。雖然我們相信產品質量適合當今的消費者,並實現了 Old Navy 使款式民主化的使命,但我們推出的範圍太廣、太快了。我們過度計劃了更大的尺寸,客戶需求低於供應節奏,導致整個商店的庫存過多。由於持續的供應鏈中斷和庫存延遲,核心尺寸缺貨加劇了這一問題。

  • The brand also dedicated a significant amount of full funnel marketing to bought quality, including stores and site experience, starting in the third quarter of last year, shifting focus away from its expansive brand DNA. This has resulted in a negative impact on demand and traffic from our core customers as the product they were looking for wasn't available.

    從去年第三季度開始,該品牌還投入了大量的全渠道營銷來購買質量,包括商店和網站體驗,將重點從其廣泛的品牌 DNA 轉移。這對我們的核心客戶的需求和流量造成了負面影響,因為他們正在尋找的產品不可用。

  • And finally, as previously mentioned, while we entered the first quarter anticipating a slowdown as we lapped the impact of stimulus in the prior year, we experienced more pronounced weakness than expected through the quarter primarily impacting Old Navy. While trends in May have improved, we are taking a more conservative view as it relates to the lower-income consumer given the ongoing effects of rising inflation. This is reflected in our revised fiscal 2022 outlook.

    最後,如前所述,雖然我們進入第一季度時預計會放緩,因為我們在上一年經歷了刺激的影響,但我們在本季度經歷了比預期更明顯的疲軟,主要影響的是舊海軍。雖然 5 月份的趨勢有所改善,但鑑於通脹上升的持續影響,我們對低收入消費者的看法更為保守。這反映在我們修訂的 2022 財年展望中。

  • The Old Navy brand is better than this, and we know what we need to do to correct the things we can control. Let me walk you through some recent changes. While we search for a new leader, our strong Old Navy leadership team has reinstituted a focus on our value equation, offering style, fit, quality and cultural relevance at jaw-dropping prices. This is particularly important to capture not only the current pressure for income consumers but all consumers in an inflationary environment.

    老海軍品牌比這更好,我們知道我們需要做什麼來糾正我們可以控制的事情。讓我帶您了解一些最近的變化。在我們尋找新領導者的同時,我們強大的 Old Navy 領導團隊重新關注我們的價值等式,以令人瞠目結舌的價格提供風格、合身、質量和文化相關性。這對於捕捉當前收入消費者以及通脹環境中所有消費者的壓力尤為重要。

  • Next, we are adding balance and relevance to the assortment with broader end use and what we believe are the right fashion choices, which we expect will improve in fall and even more in holidays while still maintaining leadership positions in categories we are known for, like denim, active and kids and baby. We are rightsizing our extended-size offering in stores to better match demand starting in Q3 by optimizing the size range to service the customers we acquired with the launch. We'll continue to offer the full-size range online and maintain price parity across sizes in all women styles. The team has canceled a significant portion of extended sizes from Q3, is optimizing replenishment and will monitor demand and refine as necessary. And we're confident that our core sizes will be back in stock for fall. Finally, we have updated the marketing mix across channels to better reflect extended sizing as a percent of the total business and are using informational creatives to bring back our core marketing messages of fun, fashion, family and value to the Old Navy customer.

    接下來,我們正在為更廣泛的最終用途以及我們認為正確的時尚選擇增加平衡性和相關性,我們預計這將在秋季甚至在假期有所改善,同時仍保持在我們知名的類別中的領導地位,例如牛仔布、 活躍和孩子和嬰兒。從第三季度開始,我們正在調整我們在商店中擴大尺寸的產品,通過優化尺寸範圍來更好地滿足我們在推出時獲得的客戶的需求。我們將繼續在線提供全尺寸系列,並在所有女性款式中保持不同尺寸的價格平價。該團隊從第三季度開始取消了很大一部分擴展尺寸,正在優化補貨,並將監控需求並根據需要進行改進。而且我們有信心,我們的核心尺寸將在秋季重新上市。最後,我們更新了跨渠道的營銷組合,以更好地反映擴展規模佔總業務的百分比,並使用信息創意將我們的樂趣、時尚、家庭和價值的核心營銷信息帶回給老海軍客戶。

  • While we're clearly disappointed in the near-term headwinds and transitory factors impacting our business in the short term, we are confident in our strategy for the long term. We have made tremendous progress on our Power Plan already and do not want the near-term dynamics to cloud the great work that our teams have executed against our long-term plan. We have undertaken significant restructuring necessary to become a more nimble and focused company through our North American fleet rationalization, which we expect to be approximately 85% complete by the end of 2022, as well as through the capital-efficient partnering of our European business and by shedding unprofitable brands.

    雖然我們對短期內影響我們業務的近期不利因素和暫時性因素顯然感到失望,但我們對我們的長期戰略充滿信心。我們已經在我們的電源計劃上取得了巨大的進展,並且不希望近期的動態影響我們的團隊針對我們的長期計劃執行的出色工作。我們已經進行了必要的重大重組,通過我們的北美機隊合理化(我們預計到 2022 年底將完成約 85%)以及通過我們歐洲業務的資本效率合作夥伴關係和通過擺脫無利可圖的品牌。

  • We use this time of disruption to grow brand awareness through investments in marketing and digital capabilities and to create greater brand differentiation and balance across the portfolio. And we launched our loyalty program to unlock personalization for our 55 million loyalty customers which, alongside our Barclays credit card transition happening in June, will create even deeper engagement with our customers.

    我們利用這段中斷時間通過對營銷和數字能力的投資來提高品牌知名度,並在整個產品組合中創造更大的品牌差異化和平衡。我們推出了忠誠度計劃,為我們的 5500 萬忠誠度客戶解鎖個性化服務,再加上 6 月發生的巴克萊信用卡過渡,將與我們的客戶建立更深入的互動。

  • Fundamentally, Old Navy has strong core assets that have long-term value. With a stronghold for a wide range of shoppers, the brand wins by staying true to its value equation which has proven successful since day 1. Old Navy's spring campaign written by the Internet invites our loyal customers to help shape the brand's marketing throughout the year, giving them unprecedented access to collaborate at the highest level. And our new price unlock initiative is a commitment to freezing the current price tag despite the rising prices across the industry on a selection of kids everyday fashion essentials labeled Everyday Magic.

    從根本上說,Old Navy 擁有具有長期價值的強大核心資產。該品牌擁有廣泛的購物者據點,通過堅持其價值等式而獲勝,該等式從第一天起就證明是成功的。Old Navy 由互聯網撰寫的春季活動邀請我們的忠實客戶幫助塑造品牌全年的營銷,使他們能夠以前所未有的方式進行最高級別的協作。我們新的價格解鎖計劃承諾凍結當前價格標籤,儘管整個行業的精選兒童日常時尚必需品標有 Everyday Magic 的價格不斷上漲。

  • Athleta's position and appeal to empower active women and girls is as relevant as ever. The brand has delivered approximately 60% growth versus 2019 pre-pandemic level. We believe Athleta has multiyear tailwinds as leisure and wellness are 2 big trends that aren't going anywhere. And we see a path towards delivering mid-double-digit revenue CAGR over the next several years, positioning the brand as one of the fastest-growing women's athleisure brands in North America.

    Athleta 賦予活躍女性和女孩權力的立場和訴求與以往一樣重要。與 2019 年大流行前的水平相比,該品牌實現了約 60% 的增長。我們相信 Athleta 有多年的順風順風,因為休閒和健康是兩大趨勢,不會隨處可見。我們看到了在未來幾年實現中兩位數收入複合年增長率的道路,將該品牌定位為北美增長最快的女性運動休閒品牌之一。

  • Athleta's focus on both active and lifestyle positions it well to capitalize on the evolving shopping trends. And with this consumer shift, we're keeping a close eye on balancing the right assortment mix for the remainder of the year. The brand's newly launched Transcend Tight, featuring smooth, buttery soft fabrics and minimal themes, makes this Athleta's most versatile performance type ever, meant to perform in the studio and beyond.

    Athleta 對運動和生活方式的關注使其能夠很好地利用不斷變化的購物趨勢。隨著消費者的這種轉變,我們將密切關注在今年剩餘時間里平衡正確的分類組合。該品牌新推出的 Transcend Tight 採用光滑、黃油般柔軟的面料和極簡主題,使這款 Athleta 成為有史以來用途最廣泛的表演類型,旨在在工作室及其他地方表演。

  • At Gap, our partner to amplify strategy continues to ignite brand relevance and drive category and channel diversification. The brand is focused on scaling the big partnerships this year, like Gap Home at Walmart and YEEZY Gap, to drive sales. The YEEZY Gap Engineered by Balenciaga launch drove urgency with customers and generated brand buzz in Q1 with 6.6 billion media impressions. Additionally, you can expect the brand to expand across wholesale and marketplaces later this year.

    在 Gap,我們擴大戰略的合作夥伴繼續激髮品牌相關性並推動品類和渠道多元化。該品牌今年專注於擴大大型合作夥伴關係,例如沃爾瑪的 Gap Home 和 YEEZY Gap,以推動銷售。由 Balenciaga 設計的 YEEZY Gap 的發布推動了客戶的緊迫感,並在第一季度以 66 億次媒體印象引起了品牌轟動。此外,您可以期待該品牌在今年晚些時候擴展到批發和市場。

  • Banana Republic is reclaiming its position in the accessible luxury market through the return to trend-right styles; quality of fabrics like leather, cashmere, silk and linen, an experience that's commanded a healthy premium consumer. Banana Republic is capitalizing on the current customer shift to occasionwear, with women's suiting, dresses and skirts growing 62% and men's suit sales nearly doubling versus last year. With a record number of weddings set for 2022, the brand is highlighting its best look and elevated product in a new online wedding and events shop suited in bright, optimistic color, seasonal neutrals and lush fabrics. And Banana Republic expanded into the baby market with the recent launch of BR Baby, drawing upon the brand's legacy of safari-inspired styles crafted from premium fabrics and textiles made to last the journey ahead.

    Banana Republic 通過回歸潮流風格,重新奪回其在平易近人的奢侈品市場的地位;皮革、羊絨、絲綢和亞麻等面料的質量,這種體驗已經贏得了健康的高端消費者的青睞。 Banana Republic 正在利用當前客戶轉向場合服裝的趨勢,女式西服、連衣裙和短裙增長了 62%,男式西服銷量幾乎比去年翻了一番。隨著 2022 年的婚禮數量創下歷史新高,該品牌正在一家新的在線婚禮和活動商店中突出其最佳外觀和高級產品,該商店適合明亮、樂觀的色彩、季節性中性色和華麗的面料。 Banana Republic 通過最近推出的 BR Baby 進軍嬰兒市場,借鑒了該品牌傳統的狩獵風格風格,採用優質面料和紡織品製成,以持續前行。

  • Before I hand it to Katrina, I'll leave you with this. While there are industry-wide macro factors and execution challenges impacting our performance in the near term, we are confident in our ability to restabilize Old Navy. We are taking aggressive actions to clear goods, fix our assortment relevance and imbalance and focus our marketing efforts on the brand's core consumer value proposition and leverage our responsive capabilities as we approach future buys.

    在我把它交給卡特里娜颶風之前,我會把它留給你。雖然有行業範圍的宏觀因素和執行挑戰會在短期內影響我們的業績,但我們對恢復 Old Navy 的能力充滿信心。我們正在採取積極行動來清理商品,修復我們的分類相關性和不平衡性,並將我們的營銷工作重點放在品牌的核心消費者價值主張上,並在我們接近未來購買時利用我們的響應能力。

  • What remains true is that we have 4 great purpose-led brands that people steadfastly love. We have made considerable progress on our Power Plan strategy to date and are focused on completing the work necessary to come out of this period of near-term headwinds in an even better position to deliver shareholder value over the long term.

    仍然真實的是,我們擁有 4 個以目標為導向的偉大品牌,深受人們的喜愛。迄今為止,我們在電力計劃戰略上取得了相當大的進展,並專注於完成必要的工作,以擺脫這段近期的逆風,從而更好地為長期股東創造價值。

  • With that, I'll pass it to Katrina.

    有了這個,我會把它傳遞給卡特里娜颶風。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Sonia, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. While performance in Q1 and our updated outlook for the remainder of the year is below our prior expectations, we are confident in our ability to course-correct the execution challenges at Old Navy through the actions Sonia outlined while navigating the near-term industry-wide headwinds in order to deliver on our long-term strategy.

    謝謝你,索尼婭,也謝謝大家今天下午加入我們。雖然第一季度的業績和我們對今年剩餘時間的更新展望低於我們之前的預期,但我們有信心通過索尼婭在近期全行業導航時概述的行動來糾正 Old Navy 的執行挑戰逆風,以實現我們的長期戰略。

  • Let me start with our first quarter results. First quarter sales of $3.5 billion were down 13% versus last year with comparable sales down 14%. The decline was primarily driven by Old Navy, down 19% versus last year with comparable sales down 22%, stemming from size and assortment imbalances, all compounded by continued lateness in our inventory flows and product acceptance issues in some key categories.

    讓我從我們的第一季度業績開始。第一季度銷售額為 35 億美元,與去年同期相比下降了 13%,可比銷售額下降了 14%。下降主要是由 Old Navy 推動的,與去年相比下降了 19%,可比銷售額下降了 22%,原因是規模和分類不平衡,再加上我們的庫存流持續延遲和一些關鍵類別的產品接受問題。

  • In addition, as we highlighted last quarter, first quarter sales growth was negatively impacted by an estimated 5 percentage points related to lapping the benefit of stimulus in Q1 2021 and 3 percentage points from divestitures, store closures and our European partnership transitions. Excluding the estimated effect of stimulus and the strategic initiatives from last year, sales declined approximately 5% during the quarter.

    此外,正如我們上個季度所強調的那樣,第一季度的銷售增長受到了 5 個百分點的負面影響,這與 2021 年第一季度的刺激收益相關,以及資產剝離、商店關閉和我們的歐洲合作夥伴關係過渡的 3 個百分點。排除刺激的估計效果和去年的戰略舉措,本季度銷售額下降了約 5%。

  • Turning to sales at Gap and Banana Republic and Athleta. Gap brand global sales declined 11% versus last year with comparable sales down 11%. We believe the brand was slightly impacted by slowed demand stemming from inflationary pressures impacting the lower-income consumer that Sonia discussed earlier as well as continued inventory lateness to last year. Growth at Gap brand was also negatively impacted by the COVID-related forced lockdowns and slowed overall demand which began in late March in China.

    轉向 Gap、Banana Republic 和 Athleta 的銷售。 Gap 品牌的全球銷售額與去年相比下降了 11%,可比銷售額下降了 11%。我們認為,Sonia 早些時候討論的影響低收入消費者的通脹壓力導致需求放緩以及庫存持續延遲到去年,我們認為該品牌受到了輕微影響。 Gap 品牌的增長也受到與 COVID 相關的強制封鎖和中國 3 月下旬開始的總體需求放緩的負面影響。

  • Athleta sales grew 4% with comparable sales down 7%. Athleta posted an increase of over 60% in sales compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels, reflecting the brand's progress in driving awareness and establishing authority in women's active and wellness categories. While we see a path toward Athleta delivering mid-double-digit revenue CAGR over the long term, in the near term, we're taking a more conservative stance as we keep a close eye as the brand strikes the right balance of active and lifestyle in its assortment mix in order to best meet the

    運動員銷售額增長 4%,可比銷售額下降 7%。與 2019 年大流行前水平相比,Athleta 的銷售額增長了 60% 以上,反映了該品牌在提高女性運動和健康類別的知名度和建立權威方面取得的進展。雖然我們看到 Athleta 在長期內實現中兩位數的收入複合年增長率的道路,但在短期內,我們將採取更加保守的立場,因為我們密切關注該品牌在積極和生活方式之間取得適當的平衡在其分類組合中,以最好地滿足

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • Banana Republic sales grew 24% compared to last year with comparable sales up 27% as the brand is capitalizing on the current shift in consumer trends and is realizing benefits since last year's brand relaunch.

    Banana Republic 的銷售額與去年相比增長了 24%,可比銷售額增長了 27%,因為該品牌正在利用當前的消費趨勢轉變,並自去年品牌重新推出以來實現了收益。

  • Looking at Gap, Inc. sales by channel during this quarter. Store sales declined 10% from the prior year. Online contributed 39% of total sales, declining 17% versus last year.

    查看本季度按渠道劃分的 Gap, Inc. 銷售額。商店銷售額比去年下降了 10%。在線銷售額佔總銷售額的 39%,比去年下降 17%。

  • Now to gross margin. Gross margin was 31.5% of sales, deleveraging 930 basis points versus last year. As we communicated last quarter, more than half of our fiscal 2022 airfreight was expected to be realized in the first quarter. We realized approximately $170 million of incremental airfreight during the quarter, which resulted in approximately 480 basis points of gross margin deleverage. This transitory headwind was the most significant driver of our gross margin deleverage in the quarter. Excluding the transitory elevated airfreight, gross margin deleveraged approximately 450 basis points versus last year.

    現在到毛利率。毛利率為銷售額的 31.5%,與去年相比去槓桿化 930 個基點。正如我們上個季度所傳達的那樣,我們 2022 財年一半以上的空運預計將在第一季度實現。我們在本季度實現了大約 1.7 億美元的增量空運,這導致毛利率降低了大約 480 個基點。這種暫時的逆風是我們本季度毛利率去槓桿的最重要驅動力。剔除暫時性的空運上漲,毛利率與去年相比下降了約 450 個基點。

  • Merchandise margin deleveraged 760 basis points. Excluding the transitory elevated airfreight costs, merchandise margin declined approximately 280 basis points from the prior year primarily as a result of higher discounting at Old Navy due to assortment imbalances and inflationary commodity price increases, partially offset by lower discounting at Banana Republic as last year's brand relaunch and the elevated customer experience is resonating with customers.

    商品保證金去槓桿760個基點。剔除暫時升高的空運成本,商品利潤率較上年下降約 280 個基點,主要是由於分類不平衡和商品價格上漲導致 Old Navy 的折扣增加,部分被去年品牌 Banana Republic 的較低折扣抵消重新啟動和提升的客戶體驗正在引起客戶的共鳴。

  • While we continue to benefit from our fleet restructuring efforts through lower ROD costs, which were in line with last year on a nominal basis, ROD deleveraged approximately 170 basis points, primarily as a result of the lower sales volume during the quarter.

    雖然我們通過降低 ROD 成本(名義上與去年持平)繼續受益於我們的機隊重組工作,但 ROD 去槓桿化了約 170 個基點,主要是由於本季度銷量下降。

  • SG&A was $1.3 billion or 37.2% of sales, deleveraging 240 basis points from the prior year. Excluding $56 million in charges related to divestitures last year, SG&A deleveraged 380 basis points from the prior year adjusted SG&A, primarily driven by the lower sales volume.

    SG&A 為 13 億美元,佔銷售額的 37.2%,比上年減少 240 個基點。除去去年與資產剝離相關的 5600 萬美元費用,SG&A 與上年調整後的 SG&A 相比降低了 380 個基點,這主要是由於銷量下降。

  • Operating margin in the first quarter was a loss of 5.7%, reflecting the lower sales volumes, higher airfreight expense, elevated promotional activity primarily to Old Navy, higher inflationary costs and SG&A deleverage. Excluding the approximately 480 basis points of transitory elevated airfreight costs, first quarter operating margin would have been a loss of approximately 0.9%.

    第一季度的營業利潤率為 5.7%,這反映了銷量下降、空運費用增加、主要針對 Old Navy 的促銷活動增加、通脹成本上升以及 SG&A 去槓桿化。剔除大約 480 個基點的暫時性空運成本上漲,第一季度的營業利潤率將損失約 0.9%。

  • Moving to interest and taxes. We recognized $19 million in interest expense, a $34 million savings versus last year due to the refinancing of our long-term debt last fall. The Q1 tax rate was 25%.

    轉向利息和稅收。由於去年秋天對我們的長期債務進行再融資,我們確認了 1900 萬美元的利息支出,與去年相比節省了 3400 萬美元。第一季度的稅率為 25%。

  • Reported EPS during the quarter was a loss of $0.44, which included approximately $0.34 of negative impact related to the $170 million in transitory elevated airfreight expenses during the quarter.

    本季度報告的每股收益為虧損 0.44 美元,其中包括與本季度 1.7 億美元臨時增加的空運費用相關的大約 0.34 美元的負面影響。

  • Share count ended at 369 million. And during the quarter, we paid a dividend of $0.15 per share and repurchased 3.7 million shares for approximately $54 million as part of our plan to offset dilution.

    股票數量為 3.69 億股。在本季度,我們支付了每股 0.15 美元的股息,並以約 5400 萬美元的價格回購了 370 萬股股票,作為我們抵消稀釋計劃的一部分。

  • Turning to inventory. Total ending inventory was up 34% versus last year, largely stemming from longer in-transit times, elevated long-life basics as a result of receipt delays, pack-and-hold strategies and higher AUC and input costs.

    轉向庫存。期末總庫存與去年相比增加了 34%,這主要是由於運輸時間延長、收貨延遲、打包和保留策略以及更高的 AUC 和投入成本導致的長壽命基礎材料的提高。

  • Net cash from operating activities was an outflow of $362 million. Free cash flow was an outflow of $590 million, well above our historical average Q1 outflow, driven by previously earned incentive compensation paid out during the quarter, timing of merchandise payments and lower-than-planned Q1 sales. During the quarter, we realized inflows of $330 million related to the sale of our Mission Bay property in San Francisco and approximately $428 million in NOL carryback tax refunds primarily related to the CARES Act.

    經營活動產生的淨現金流出 3.62 億美元。自由現金流流出 5.9 億美元,遠高於我們第一季度的歷史平均流出量,這是由於先前在本季度支付的激勵薪酬、商品支付時間和低於計劃的第一季度銷售。在本季度,我們實現了與出售我們在舊金山的 Mission Bay 物業相關的 3.3 億美元的流入,以及主要與 CARES 法案相關的大約 4.28 億美元的 NOL 結轉退稅。

  • Moving to real estate. We still anticipate closing about 50 stores in fiscal 2022, bringing us to approximately 85% of our goal of closing 350 stores in North America by the end of fiscal 2023.

    搬到房地產。我們仍預計在 2022 財年關閉約 50 家門店,使我們實現到 2023 財年年底在北美關閉 350 家門店的目標的約 85%。

  • Now turning to our full year outlook. I'd like to review the factors Sonia discussed earlier that are influencing our near-term performance and reflected in our revised fiscal 2022 outlook.

    現在轉向我們的全年展望。我想回顧一下索尼婭之前討論的影響我們近期業績並反映在我們修訂後的 2022 財年展望中的因素。

  • First, while we are working to correct execution challenges at Old Navy, including assortment imbalances, product acceptance issues and factors related to the launch of BODEQUALITY, we do know that some of these remediations will take time. With this in mind, we've embedded a negative EPS impact of approximately $0.90 to $1 in our revised guidance related to the Old Navy recovery as well as a more prudent outlook for the lower-income consumer.

    首先,雖然我們正在努力糾正 Old Navy 的執行挑戰,包括分類不平衡、產品接受問題以及與 BODEQUALITY 推出相關的因素,但我們確實知道其中一些補救措施需要時間。考慮到這一點,我們在與舊海軍復甦相關的修訂指導以及對低收入消費者更謹慎的前景中嵌入了大約 0.90 美元至 1 美元的負面每股收益影響。

  • Second, while we expected a slowdown during the quarter as we lapped stimulus in the prior year, we experienced more pronounced weakness in North America at Old Navy and Gap during the quarter than planned. We attribute this to the impact that the inflationary environment is having on the lower-income consumer. While we are experiencing an improvement in trend thus far in May, we remain cautiously optimistic and have factored in a more conservative posture as it relates to the consumer in our fiscal 2022 outlook.

    其次,雖然我們預計本季度會放緩,因為我們在前一年實施了刺激計劃,但我們在北美的 Old Navy 和 Gap 經歷了比計劃更明顯的疲軟。我們將此歸因於通脹環境對低收入消費者的影響。雖然我們在 5 月迄今的趨勢有所改善,但我們仍保持謹慎樂觀,並在我們的 2022 財年展望中考慮到與消費者相關的更為保守的姿態。

  • Third, since we last spoke with you, we've experienced challenges in our Asia market impacting Gap brand, namely lockdowns in important markets for our China business, which is also negatively impacting our fiscal 2022 outlook. And finally, our revised outlook also contemplates modest incremental fuel costs and hourly labor headwinds as we look out for the remainder of the year.

    第三,自從我們上次與您交談以來,我們在亞洲市場遇到了影響 Gap 品牌的挑戰,即我們在中國業務的重要市場被封鎖,這也對我們 2022 財年的前景產生了負面影響。最後,在我們展望今年剩餘時間時,我們修訂後的展望還考慮到適度增加的燃料成本和每小時勞動力的不利因素。

  • Adjusting for these factors, we're revising our fiscal 2022 reported EPS to a range of $0.40 to $0.70 with adjusted EPS in the range of $0.30 to $0.60. We now expect fiscal 2022 sales to decline approximately low to mid-single digits versus last year. We expect flat to modest year-over-year revenue growth in the second half of the year as supply delays normalize and assortment balancing at Old Navy begins to improve, positioning total sales in the second half of fiscal 2022 relatively flat to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. We are expecting fiscal 2022 gross margin to be in the range of 36.5% to 37.5%, reflecting higher inflationary costs, higher discounting at Old Navy and ROD deleverage.

    調整這些因素後,我們將 2022 財年報告的每股收益修改為 0.40 美元至 0.70 美元,調整後的每股收益在 0.30 美元至 0.60 美元之間。我們現在預計 2022 財年的銷售額將與去年相比下降約低至中個位數。隨著供應延遲正常化和 Old Navy 的品種平衡開始改善,我們預計下半年的收入同比增長將持平至溫和,使 2022 財年下半年的總銷售額與 2019 年大流行前相對持平水平。我們預計 2022 財年的毛利率將在 36.5% 至 37.5% 之間,這反映了更高的通脹成本、Old Navy 和 ROD 去槓桿的更高折扣。

  • As discussed last quarter, we anticipate continued elevated airfreight expense in fiscal 2022. Approximately $170 million of transitory incremental airfreight expense was realized in the first quarter, and we expect roughly $50 million in the second quarter. We expect to return to more normalized levels in the second half of the year. This compares to $430 million of airfreight expense last year, which was primarily recognized in the second half of the year. Excluding the $220 million of air costs from the first half of the year, we expect gross margin for the year would be in the range of 37.9% to 38.9%, which includes inflationary cost headwinds from raw materials as well as higher discounting at Old Navy and modest incremental fuel increases compared to our prior outlook.

    正如上個季度所討論的,我們預計 2022 財年空運費用將繼續增加。第一季度實現了約 1.7 億美元的臨時增量空運費用,我們預計第二季度約為 5000 萬美元。我們預計下半年將恢復到更加正常化的水平。相比之下,去年的空運費用為 4.3 億美元,主要在下半年得到確認。剔除上半年 2.2 億美元的航空成本,我們預計今年的毛利率將在 37.9% 至 38.9% 之間,其中包括來自原材料的通脹成本逆風以及 Old Navy 更高的折扣與我們之前的展望相比,燃料增加幅度不大。

  • Looking at the margin progression as we move through the year. After adjusting for the elevated airfreight expenses in the first half of fiscal 2022, gross margin at the midpoint of our guidance range is expected to improve nearly 150 basis points in the second half of the year relative to the first half, primarily reflecting modest improvements in promotional levels at Old Navy. Our revised fiscal 2022 gross margin outlook also assumes slight ROD deleverage as a result of the lower sales outlook. We now expect that SG&A will deleverage slightly as a percentage of sales versus last year as a result of the lower sales outlook.

    看看我們一年中的利潤率進展。在調整了 2022 財年上半年空運費用上漲後,我們指導範圍中點的毛利率預計將在下半年相對於上半年提高近 150 個基點,主要反映了小幅改善老海軍的促銷水平。由於銷售前景較低,我們修訂後的 2022 財年毛利率展望還假設 ROD 輕微去槓桿。我們現在預計,由於銷售前景較低,SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比將與去年相比略有下降。

  • In light of our revised outlook and near-term headwinds, we have taken preliminary action to reduce discretionary spend and manage expenses for the remainder of the fiscal year. Fiscal 2022 reported operating margin is now expected to be in the range of 1.8% to 2.8% and, on an adjusted basis, approximately 1.5% to 2.5%, including the 140 basis point impact of incremental airfreight in the first half.

    鑑於我們修訂後的前景和近期不利因素,我們已採取初步行動減少可自由支配的支出並管理本財年剩餘時間的開支。現在預計 2022 財年報告的營業利潤率將在 1.8% 至 2.8% 的範圍內,經調整後約為 1.5% 至 2.5%,包括上半年增加空運的 140 個基點影響。

  • As a reminder, our reported guidance metrics include a net benefit of approximately $100 million from the planned sale of our U.K. DC now that our European partnership model transition is complete. In addition, we expect approximately $50 million in charges related to our Old Navy Mexico business where we have successfully reached agreement with a partner in market and are proceeding through required regulatory approvals. We anticipate that net interest expense will be approximately $80 million in fiscal 2022 and the effective tax rate will be approximately 27%.

    提醒一下,由於我們的歐洲合作夥伴模式過渡已經完成,我們報告的指導指標包括計劃出售我們的英國 DC 帶來的約 1 億美元的淨收益。此外,我們預計與我們的 Old Navy 墨西哥業務相關的費用約為 5000 萬美元,我們已成功與市場合作夥伴達成協議,並正在通過所需的監管批准。我們預計 2022 財年的淨利息支出約為 8000 萬美元,有效稅率約為 27%。

  • We remain focused on driving strong returns on invested capital and shareholder value over the long term. We believe an important part of total shareholder return is paying a competitive dividend that we look to grow annually as we see growth in net income. As recently announced, our Board of Directors approved second quarter fiscal 2022 dividend of $0.15 per share. In addition, we plan to return cash to shareholders through share repurchases in fiscal 2022 intended to offset dilution.

    從長遠來看,我們仍然專注於推動投資資本和股東價值的強勁回報。我們認為,股東總回報的一個重要部分是支付具有競爭力的股息,隨著我們看到淨收入的增長,我們希望每年都增長。正如最近宣布的那樣,我們的董事會批准了 2022 財年第二季度每股 0.15 美元的股息。此外,我們計劃在 2022 財年通過股票回購向股東返還現金,以抵消稀釋。

  • In closing, while we're disappointed in our near-term performance, we are confident in our ability to navigate the industry-wide headwinds and restabilize the Old Navy business, putting us back on our path towards delivering growth, margin expansion and value for our shareholders over the long term.

    最後,雖然我們對近期業績感到失望,但我們有信心駕馭整個行業的逆風並重新穩定 Old Navy 業務,使我們重回實現增長、利潤率擴張和價值的道路。從長遠來看,我們的股東。

  • With that, we'll open the line for questions. Operator?

    有了這個,我們將打開問題線。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

  • Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

    Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Great. So Sonia, now that you've taken a more direct role within the Old Navy brand, on the confidence that you cited in restabilizing that concept, I guess, what areas within the assortment do you see the most opportunity for improvement relative to where we sit today? And how would you characterize the health of your women's business or customer today?

    偉大的。所以索尼婭,既然你在 Old Navy 品牌中扮演了更直接的角色,基於你在重新穩定這個概念時引用的信心,我猜,你認為與我們相比,該分類中的哪些領域最有改進的機會今天坐嗎?您如何描述當今女性企業或客戶的健康狀況?

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • Matt, thank you for the question. So as the team and I have dug in, here's what we can see go forward. First and foremost, as you know, we've been grappling with late inventories since the fall of last year. That stabilizes. We should have our inventory on time starting June onward, which will allow us to compete in the right seasons for the right moment, such as back-to-school or the seasonal shift for fall or holidays, so late inventory largely solved by Q2. Sizing imbalances, we will be better bought to the size curves that our customer wants beginning Q3 onwards. And then the category imbalances and assortment mix, we have a broader range of the sort of mix, including dominance in key bottoms, that will be important for wear to work and the different use occasions sequentially starting in Q3 but more so in Q4.

    馬特,謝謝你的問題。因此,正如我和團隊所挖掘的那樣,這就是我們可以看到的前進方向。首先,如您所知,自去年秋季以來,我們一直在努力解決庫存延遲問題。這樣就穩定了。從 6 月開始,我們應該按時備貨,這將使我們能夠在正確的季節為正確的時間競爭,例如返校或秋季或假期的換季,因此延遲庫存在第二季度基本解決。尺寸不平衡,我們將更好地購買我們的客戶希望從第三季度開始的尺寸曲線。然後是類別不平衡和分類組合,我們有更廣泛的組合,包括在關鍵底部的主導地位,這對於從第三季度開始的工作和不同使用場合順序很重要,但在第四季度更是如此。

  • So I think the fashion choice has improved with Q4 and more into Q1. The team is expecting season-over-season improvement, starting with size imbalances and then category and fashion.

    所以我認為時尚選擇隨著第四季度和第一季度的變化而有所改善。該團隊期望從尺寸不平衡開始,然後是類別和時尚,逐季改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Ike Boruchow。

  • Irwin Bernard Boruchow - MD and Senior Specialty Retail Analyst

    Irwin Bernard Boruchow - MD and Senior Specialty Retail Analyst

  • Two quick ones. Just first on Athleta, just a little bit more color on Athleta maybe versus your plan in the first quarter. And then I think, Katrina, you talked about the long-term CAGR being intact, but maybe not in the near term. If you could just add more context around what exactly you're meaning for the year. And then on the airfreight, it looks like it's about $100 million lower than what you guys have talked about 3 months ago. Just trying to understand that, is that just because the revenue base is lower, so instead of $150 million in 2Q, it's only $50 million? Just trying to understand that, too.

    兩個快的。只是首先在 Athleta 上,Athleta 上的顏色可能會比你在第一季度的計劃多一點。然後我想,卡特里娜颶風,你談到長期復合年增長率保持不變,但短期內可能不會。如果您可以圍繞您對這一年的確切含義添加更多上下文。然後在空運方面,它看起來比你們三個月前所說的低了大約 1 億美元。只是想了解一下,是不是因為收入基數較低,所以不是第二季度的 1.5 億美元,而是只有 5000 萬美元?也只是試圖理解這一點。

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • Okay. Thanks, Ike. Let me start with Athleta. So Athleta is up 60% compared to pre-pandemic levels. And it just reflects the strength of the brand and the authority it has in athleisure and its growing customer base. As you know, last year was really strong for active across the sector, and all of our brands benefited from that: Old Navy, Athleta and Gap. And as we anniversary that, we're seeing a slowdown in performance active. And we think that's transitory. Look, there's nothing wrong with the athleisure category. We see it as the biggest in apparel and the highest growth over the long term. There's just some transitory issues anniversarying last year that we're filling in the short term as well as Athleta anniversarying strong sales last year in Q1. So we see a path towards continued growth. And in the near term, we're just taking a little bit more of a conservative stance on the performance active side of things.

    好的。謝謝,艾克。讓我從運動員開始。因此,與大流行前的水平相比,Athleta 增長了 60%。它只是反映了品牌的實力、它在運動休閒領域的權威以及不斷增長的客戶群。如您所知,去年整個行業的活躍度非常強勁,我們所有的品牌都從中受益:Old Navy、Athleta 和 Gap。在我們週年紀念之際,我們看到活躍的表現放緩。我們認為這是暫時的。看,運動休閒類別沒有錯。我們認為它是服裝領域最大的,也是長期增長最快的。我們在短期內填補了去年周年紀念日的一些暫時性問題,以及去年第一季度的強勁銷售週年紀念日。因此,我們看到了持續增長的道路。在短期內,我們只是在性能積極方面採取了更多保守的立場。

  • Their active lifestyle product continues to have a lot of versatility and response. And so whether it's commute wear or dresses or different occasions that they service, we do think that assortment mix is an advantage. Over the long term, we think there's tremendous opportunity in Athleta to capitalize on that multiyear tailwind that we spoke about. And they're a market leader, and we expect them to maintain the market share growth that they've seen.

    他們積極的生活方式產品繼續具有很多多功能性和響應。因此,無論是通勤服、連衣裙還是他們服務的不同場合,我們確實認為分類組合是一個優勢。從長遠來看,我們認為 Athleta 有巨大的機會利用我們談到的多年順風。他們是市場領導者,我們希望他們保持他們所看到的市場份額增長。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • And then, Ike, your question on airfreight is a good one. I'm glad you asked it. So we do expect to have still about $350 million of total airfreight this year. That's up against $430 million of airfreight last year. The numbers we quoted in the speech were incremental to prior years. So quarterly, Q1 incrementally is $170 million; Q2, $50 million. And then if you remember, because we're up against that significant amount of airfreight in the back half, we actually get a benefit of $70 million in Q3 and $245 million in Q4. And that should get you to the $350 million on the year.

    然後,艾克,你關於空運的問題是一個很好的問題。我很高興你問了。因此,我們確實預計今年的空運總額仍約為 3.5 億美元。這與去年 4.3 億美元的空運額相比有所增加。我們在演講中引用的數字是前幾年的增量。因此,每季度,第一季度增量為 1.7 億美元;第二季度,5000 萬美元。然後,如果您還記得,因為我們在後半部分面臨大量空運,我們實際上在第三季度獲得了 7000 萬美元的收益,在第四季度獲得了 2.45 億美元的收益。這應該會讓你在今年達到 3.5 億美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

    下一個問題來自 Telsey 諮詢集團的 Dana Telsey。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • As you think about each of the brands, Sonia, how would you describe the consumer health of each of the brands, how it's changed in the first quarter? And then I have a quick follow-up.

    當您考慮每個品牌時,索尼婭,您如何描述每個品牌的消費者健康狀況,第一季度有何變化?然後我有一個快速跟進。

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • I mean, Dana, we've seen growth in brand awareness across all of our brands. And 2 of our 4 brands grew with Banana Republic and Athleta in Q1. So we're seeing high engagement. I'd say, depending on the sector, certainly in the premium or occasionwear space and wear to work, we saw really great engagement, leading with Banana Republic. And then in terms of the other brands, look, I think there's a lot of loyalty with the brands. We've got 55 million customers that are engaged with us through our loyalty program. And it's really about navigating some of the short-term product preference shifts. But there's a lot of love for these brands, and we see that from our customers.

    我的意思是,Dana,我們已經看到我們所有品牌的品牌知名度都有所提高。我們的 4 個品牌中有 2 個在第一季度與 Banana Republic 和 Athleta 一起增長。所以我們看到了很高的參與度。我想說,根據行業的不同,當然在高檔或場合服裝領域以及工作服方面,我們看到了非常好的參與度,以 Banana Republic 為首。然後就其他品牌而言,看,我認為這些品牌有很多忠誠度。我們有 5500 萬客戶通過我們的忠誠度計劃與我們互動。這實際上是關於引導一些短期的產品偏好轉變。但是對這些品牌有很多熱愛,我們從客戶那裡看到了這一點。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • And then as you think about the gross margin and inventory levels going into the back half, how do you think about discounting in each of the brands and promotions? Where would you like to see inventory levels as we move through the year?

    然後,當您考慮到後半部分的毛利率和庫存水平時,您如何看待每個品牌和促銷活動的折扣?隨著我們這一年的發展,您希望在哪裡看到庫存水平?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Dana, this is Katrina. I'll take that. So from an inventory standpoint, our inventory levels at the end of the quarter were higher than we had hoped. I would say 1/3 to half of that is transit times, which continued to be very long. And so some portion of the inventory that we owned at the end of the quarter is just based on those extended transit times.

    是的,達娜,這是卡特里娜颶風。我會接受的。因此,從庫存的角度來看,我們在本季度末的庫存水平高於我們的預期。我會說其中 1/3 到一半是運輸時間,這仍然很長。因此,我們在本季度末擁有的部分庫存只是基於那些延長的運輸時間。

  • The balance of the inventory we're addressing in 2 ways. First of all, as we think about the lower revenue trend for the balance of the year, we are packing and holding fashion inventory that we think we can sell next year or at a relevant season. And we employed that during the pandemic, so we know how to do that. But rather than try and really push that through the system at lower margins, each of the brands has taken an eye towards packing and holding fashion. And then in addition to that, we've been reflowing and cutting our basics inventory. And so sequentially, throughout the year, we should see those come back in line. So quarter-over-quarter, you'll start to see inventory levels, I think they've peaked in Q1, they'll still be high but they should get better throughout the year.

    我們以 2 種方式解決庫存的平衡問題。首先,當我們考慮到今年剩餘收入的下降趨勢時,我們正在打包並持有我們認為可以在明年或相關季節出售的時尚庫存。我們在大流行期間使用了它,所以我們知道如何做到這一點。但是,每個品牌都沒有嘗試以較低的利潤率真正推動這一點,而是著眼於包裝和保持時尚。除此之外,我們一直在回流和削減我們的基本庫存。因此,全年,我們應該看到這些人重新排列。所以季度環比,你會開始看到庫存水平,我認為它們已經在第一季度達到頂峰,它們仍然會很高,但它們應該會在全年變得更好。

  • And then as it relates to margin and discounting, what I would say is the following. So the gross margin guide that we gave at the midpoint shows about a 3 percentage point decline to prior year. That's almost equally attributable to the higher commodity costs that we're seeing in the business, ROD deleverage on the lower sales and then discount in the business. And the way I think about it is the discount fluctuates depending on sort of which portion of the guide you're looking at. But I don't think it needs to get meaningfully better in the back half for us to deliver the margin. The biggest benefit to margin comes in the airfreight which we talked about, in the last question, meaningfully revert in the back half.

    然後,由於它與保證金和折扣有關,我想說的是以下內容。因此,我們在中點給出的毛利率指南顯示比上一年下降了約 3 個百分點。這幾乎同樣歸因於我們在業務中看到的較高的商品成本,ROD 對較低銷售額的去槓桿化,然後是業務的折扣。我的想法是折扣會根據您正在查看的指南的哪一部分而波動。但我認為我們不需要在後半場變得有意義地更好來提供利潤。利潤的最大好處來自我們在上一個問題中談到的空運,在後半部分有意義地恢復。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Lorraine Hutchinson。

  • Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

    Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

  • I was just hoping to get a little bit of context on your view around raising prices. Can you talk to your average unit cost pressure that you're expecting through the year? And then what proportion of Old Navy's product is in this price lock program? And is there an opportunity to raise prices on the remainder of the assortment?

    我只是希望對您對提高價格的看法有所了解。您能談談您預計全年的平均單位成本壓力嗎?那麼在這個價格鎖定計劃中,Old Navy 的產品佔了多少比例呢?是否有機會提高其餘品種的價格?

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Lorraine. That's a great question. As we've guided, we are expecting mid-single-digit AUC pressure throughout the year due to commodity costs, and we baked that into our forecast. When we think about pricing, there's opportunity across the entire portfolio, and our brands are actioning that. So for example, Banana Republic's prices are significantly higher than they've been, both ticket as well as reduced discount. Athleta has taken the opportunity to increase ticket where it has authority as well, specifically going into the back half of the year. Gap as well has seen great price adoption and I think has seen the incremental AUR in its specialty business which I think bodes well for the back half of the year.

    謝謝,洛林。這是一個很好的問題。正如我們所指導的那樣,由於商品成本,我們預計全年 AUC 壓力將達到中個位數,我們將其納入我們的預測。當我們考慮定價時,整個產品組合都有機會,我們的品牌正在採取行動。因此,例如,香蕉共和國的價格明顯高於以往,無論是門票還是折扣。 Athleta 也藉此機會在其擁有權力的地方增加門票,特別是進入下半年。 Gap 的價格採用率也很高,我認為其專業業務的 AUR 有所增加,我認為這對下半年來說是個好兆頭。

  • And then Old Navy has opportunity on both sides. We spoke about the price unlock. That is targeted at kids basics product, probably represents, yes, about 1/3 of the Kids and Baby business, so maybe 10%, 15% of the total, and that's really for the back-to-school time period. Conversely, where Old Navy has authority, particularly in bottoms, we're seeing good success in terms of raising tickets in a moderate way as well as some fashion items such as outerwear.

    然後老海軍在雙方都有機會。我們談到了價格解鎖。這是針對兒童基礎產品的,可能代表,是的,大約 1/3 的兒童和嬰兒業務,所以可能佔總數的 10%,15%,這實際上是針對返校時間段的。相反,在 Old Navy 擁有權威的地方,特別是在下裝方面,我們在適度提高門票以及一些時尚單品(如外套)方面取得了巨大成功。

  • And then lastly, I'd say there's a lot of opportunity to improve yield through more disciplined inventory management, such as markdown management and having supply and demand that are in line, which we are planning on having in the back half. All of that should enable us to manage the margins to the guidance we've provided.

    最後,我想說通過更嚴格的庫存管理(例如降價管理和使供需一致,我們計劃在後半部分實現),有很多機會提高產量。所有這些都應該使我們能夠管理我們提供的指導的利潤。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • And the only other thing I'll add is the commodity pressure on the profit of the company is big. When you think about the 2 big headwinds, we have the $350 million of airfreight. And then if you do the rough math of mid-single-digit commodity pressure, and I define commodities as raw materials as well as freight, it's about $400 million of pressure on the profit of the company this year, so 2 big things that have impacted the profit of the company this year. And then in addition to that, we've got the consumer slowdown and then the execution issues that we have at Old Navy.

    我唯一要補充的是,商品對公司利潤的壓力很大。當您考慮兩大逆風時,我們有 3.5 億美元的空運費用。然後,如果你粗略計算一下中個位數的商品壓力,我將商品定義為原材料和運費,今年公司的利潤壓力約為 4 億美元,所以有兩件大事影響了公司今年的利潤。除此之外,我們還遇到了消費者放緩的問題,然後是老海軍的執行問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Bob Drbul with Guggenheim Securities.

    下一個問題來自古根海姆證券公司的 Bob Drbul。

  • Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD

    Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD

  • I got 2 questions for you. I think the first one is more bigger picture, but can you give us any insight into profitability by brand, how you're thinking about it for the year and sort of where these businesses might go?

    我有 2 個問題要問你。我認為第一個是更大的圖景,但是您能否向我們提供有關品牌盈利能力的任何見解,您如何看待這一年以及這些業務可能會走向何方?

  • And then the second question that I have for you is when you think about the portfolio of brands that you have, can you just help us understand the strategic rationale that you have with keeping Athleta as part of the blended portfolio at this point?

    然後我要問的第二個問題是,當您考慮您擁有的品牌組合時,您能否幫助我們了解您目前將 Athleta 作為混合組合的一部分的戰略原理?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Bob, so I'll talk a little bit about the profit by brand, and then I think Sonia can take the next part of the question. When we entered the year, we said we were going to have all 4 growing profitable brands. The revenue part of the algorithm has been a little bit disrupted by the slowdown at Old Navy and some of the Asia pressure. And as it relates to the profit picture though, we still believe that all brands will be profitable this year, maybe with the exception of Gap that is feeling a little bit more of the profit pressure from the Asia market decelerating so significantly.

    Bob,所以我會稍微談談按品牌劃分的利潤,然後我認為 Sonia 可以回答下一部分問題。當我們進入這一年時,我們說我們將擁有所有 4 個不斷增長的盈利品牌。由於 Old Navy 的放緩和亞洲的一些壓力,算法的收入部分受到了一些干擾。儘管這與利潤情況有關,但我們仍然相信所有品牌今年都會盈利,也許除了 Gap 之外,亞洲市場的利潤壓力明顯放緩。

  • And then I don't know, Sonia, if you want to take the next question.

    然後我不知道,索尼婭,如果你想回答下一個問題。

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • We are committed to our strategy, Bob. Having these brands as part of the portfolio, they all leverage the platform capabilities that we have, our strong tech stack, our e-com sites, benefits like our cross-brand credit card. And Athleta has had the investments that it's needed to continue the growth rate that we spoke about, whether it's the launch into Canada, whether it's the site traffic that it benefits from, et cetera. So I would say that there's a lot of synergies across our brands that we capitalize on. At the same time, we're always looking at maximizing shareholder value, and we'll always monitor and consider strategic options to unlock that value at the right time. In this time of disruption, we're very committed to our strategy and believe that Athleta's positioning in the premium space nicely balances our value side of the business and gives us a balanced portfolio.

    我們致力於我們的戰略,鮑勃。將這些品牌作為產品組合的一部分,它們都利用了我們擁有的平台功能、我們強大的技術堆棧、我們的電子商務網站,以及我們的跨品牌信用卡等好處。 Athleta 已經獲得了維持我們所說的增長率所需的投資,無論是在加拿大的推出,還是它從中受益的網站流量等等。所以我想說,我們利用的品牌之間有很多協同效應。與此同時,我們始終著眼於最大化股東價值,我們將始終監控和考慮戰略選擇,以在適當的時候釋放該價值。在這個顛覆性的時刻,我們非常致力於我們的戰略,並相信 Athleta 在高端領域的定位很好地平衡了我們業務的價值方面,並為我們提供了一個平衡的投資組合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的 Brooke Roach。

  • Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

    Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

  • Sonia and Katrina, can you please contextualize the importance of the low-income demographic consumers to your business across each of your brands? What are you seeing among each of these customer cohorts exiting 1Q? And what consumer outlook is embedded in your updated guidance for that tougher consumer macro in the back half?

    Sonia 和 Katrina,能否請您將低收入人群消費者對您的每個品牌業務的重要性背景化?您在這些退出 1Q 的客戶群中看到了什麼?您對後半部分更嚴格的消費者宏觀經濟的更新指導中包含了什麼樣的消費者前景?

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Brooke, thank you. Listen, this is a very, very dynamic situation and new news for all of us in Q1, right, with the rising inflation, the impact on the consumer, particularly the low-end consumer. And when we think about Old Navy and our Gap Outlet business, those segments are the most affected. I'll give you an example. I was in an Old Navy store where the average income was about $100,000 and really very little shift in consumer behavior in terms of buying routines. And I also then went into an old Navy store that had a $50,000 consumer, and you could see basket sizes down, you could see frequency down. And so there's a strain of inflation on that consumer. So we have embedded some conservatism in the outlook, as Katrina and I articulated in our prepared remarks, and so we will continue to monitor very, very closely.

    是的,布魯克,謝謝。聽著,對於我們所有人來說,第一季度這是一個非常非常動態的情況和新消息,對,隨著通貨膨脹的上升,對消費者,特別是低端消費者的影響。當我們考慮 Old Navy 和我們的 Gap Outlet 業務時,這些細分市場受到的影響最大。我給你舉個例子。我在一家 Old Navy 商店,那裡的平均收入約為 100,000 美元,就購買習慣而言,消費者行為幾乎沒有變化。然後我還去了一家舊的 Navy 商店,那裡有 50,000 美元的消費者,你可以看到購物籃尺寸縮小了,你可以看到頻率下降了。因此,該消費者面臨通脹壓力。因此,正如卡特里娜和我在準備好的評論中所闡述的那樣,我們在前景中嵌入了一些保守主義,因此我們將繼續非常非常密切地進行監控。

  • Now that being said, our brands do, I think, benefit from a broad range of consumers whether it's in the premium space with Banana and with Athleta as well as the mid-market with Gap. And Old Navy also has as many customers that earn over $100,000 as they do below $75,000 because of their strong Kids and Baby business. But we'll continue to watch it. Everyone is, I think, talking about the fact that there's a fair amount of uncertainty out there. But for us, the range in value to premium is part of the benefit of the portfolio, and so we will continue to monitor closely.

    話雖如此,我認為我們的品牌確實受益於廣泛的消費者,無論是在高端市場的 Banana 和 Athleta,還是中端市場的 Gap。由於其強大的兒童和嬰兒業務,Old Navy 的收入超過 100,000 美元的客戶也與收入低於 75,000 美元的客戶一樣多。但我們會繼續關注它。我認為,每個人都在談論存在相當多的不確定性這一事實。但對我們而言,價值至溢價的範圍是投資組合收益的一部分,因此我們將繼續密切關注。

  • Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

    Brooke Siler Roach - Research Analyst

  • And then just as a follow-up, Katrina, can you help quantify the growth outlook that you're embedding for Old Navy for the year and perhaps the magnitude of growth inflection that you're anticipating in that brand in the second half?

    然後作為後續行動,卡特里娜颶風,您能否幫助量化您為 Old Navy 嵌入的今年增長前景,以及您預計下半年該品牌的增長拐點幅度?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Brooke, we didn't go by brand to quantify sort of what would change. But we did say that we expect our revenue in the back half to be, call it, flattish to 2019. The reminder I have is Q1 was significantly impacted by stimulus. So that rolls off. I would say that's the biggest change in second quarter. And then our expectation, as we said, is that the back half gets better. And that's really driven by the stocking of product being more on time. And we started lapping last year's missing product and delays. So we have, we think, more opportunity in the back half as we really start to go up against the significant supply disruption. And that's really true for all of our brands.

    布魯克,我們沒有按品牌來量化會發生什麼變化。但我們確實說過,我們預計後半部分的收入將持平到 2019 年。我得到的提醒是第一季度受到刺激的顯著影響。這樣就滾開了。我會說這是第二季度最大的變化。然後,正如我們所說,我們的期望是後半部分會變得更好。這實際上是由更準時的產品庫存推動的。我們開始研究去年缺少的產品和延誤。因此,我們認為,隨著我們真正開始應對嚴重的供應中斷,我們在後半段擁有更多機會。這對我們所有的品牌來說都是如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kimberly Greenberger。

  • Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

    Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

  • Great. I wanted to ask how much flexibility you have to cut back on third and fourth quarter order quantities, I think particularly at Old Navy, but given the softness at Gap, let's say, at Gap as well. And how much flexibility do you have in inventory composition as you sort of reposition the kinds of categories that the merchants are buying?

    偉大的。我想問你在削減第三季度和第四季度的訂單數量方面有多大的靈活性,我認為尤其是在 Old Navy,但考慮到 Gap 的柔軟度,比如說,Gap 也是如此。當您重新定位商家購買的類別時,您在庫存構成方面有多大的靈活性?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • I could start, Kimberly, and then maybe you can respond a little bit more on our responsive levers. I think what I would say is when we began to see the slowdown, the primary lever we used for summer and fall is pack and hold as a way to really take the categories that we're overstocked in, so Active. They're good categories and the products is fine. It's just we have too much for the current trend. Those are really being packed and held until next year. And then the cuts primarily take place starting with our fourth quarter and holiday buys. And I think we feel pretty good that we were able to get those buys much more in line with the demand that we're expecting for fourth quarter in all of our brands.

    我可以開始,金伯利,然後也許你可以對我們的響應槓桿做出更多回應。我想我想說的是,當我們開始看到經濟放緩時,我們在夏季和秋季使用的主要槓桿是打包並持有,作為真正採取我們庫存過剩的類別的一種方式,因此非常活躍。它們是很好的類別,產品也很好。只是我們對當前的趨勢有太多的影響。這些真的被打包並保存到明年。然後削減主要從我們的第四季度和假日購買開始。而且我認為我們能夠使這些購買更符合我們對所有品牌第四季度的預期需求,這讓我們感覺非常好。

  • And then I don't know if you want to talk about the responsive.

    然後我不知道你是否想談談響應式。

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • And then what I would say add to that is, starting spring especially, we are rebuilding a very important lever for us, which is our responsive supply chain. As we've seen the stabilization in manufacturing and logistics lead times stabilize as well, we're able to get after reading and reacting to fashion trends with much shorter lead times as well as chasing inventory. And then lastly, we are building up our capacity in proximate manufacturing that will give us a shorter time to market as well. Again, so all of that, we believe, will start to ramp up in spring. But we will also engage in vendor-managed inventory in the Q3 and Q4 time frame, which should give us some flexibility as well.

    然後我想說的是,特別是從春天開始,我們正在重建一個對我們來說非常重要的槓桿,那就是我們的響應式供應鏈。正如我們已經看到製造和物流交貨時間的穩定一樣,我們能夠以更短的交貨時間以及追逐庫存來閱讀和應對時尚趨勢。最後,我們正在建立我們的鄰近製造能力,這也將縮短我們的上市時間。同樣,我們相信,所有這些都將在春季開始增加。但我們還將在第三季度和第四季度的時間範圍內參與供應商管理的庫存,這也應該給我們一些靈活性。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • But important to note that those capabilities really did cease to be able to be used beginning in third quarter of last year when we saw the supply disruptions. And so much of our category imbalances are a result of our inability to read and react as we would have historically. And so we're really looking forward to being able to start to stand those up again, as Sonia said, really hopefully beginning next year.

    但需要注意的是,從去年第三季度開始,當我們看到供應中斷時,這些功能確實不再能夠使用。我們的許多類別失衡都是由於我們無法像以往那樣閱讀和做出反應。所以我們真的很期待能夠再次站起來,正如索尼婭所說,真的希望從明年開始。

  • Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

    Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

  • Okay. Great. That's great color. So is the plan to also pack and hold the summer excess inventories and then also the third quarter excess inventories where you have sort of imbalances that you referenced earlier?

    好的。偉大的。這顏色真好。那麼計劃是否還打包並持有夏季過剩庫存,然後還有第三季度的過剩庫存,您之前提到過這種不平衡?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So I would say we packed and held some spring. It's mostly summer and then some fall. We were able to impact some fall by cutting, and then we're packing and holding some fall. And then really, by holiday, it was cut that we were able to implement. So it was all seasons, but I would say summer is probably the peak of the pack and hold.

    是的。所以我會說我們打包並舉行了一些春天。大部分時間是夏天,然後是一些秋天。我們能夠通過切割來影響一些跌倒,然後我們正在打包並保持一些跌倒。然後真的,到假期,我們能夠實施的削減。所以這是所有季節,但我會說夏天可能是包裝和保持的高峰。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Mark Altschwager.

    下一個問題來自 Mark Altschwager。

  • Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

    Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

  • Mark Altschwager with Baird. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about how you're thinking about kind of operating margin in the medium term here. I guess just maybe putting together all the headwinds, can you quantify what you see as sort of transitory this year, whether it be airfreight or some of the Old Navy issue specifically, any incremental actions you're taking at SG&A? I know it's too early to get a 2023 outlook but just as we sort of look at what's a reasonable baseline as we look beyond a lot of the crosscurrents this year and get back on the path towards your longer-term margin ambitions.

    馬克·阿爾茨瓦格和貝爾德。我希望你能在這裡多談談你是如何考慮中期營業利潤率的。我想也許只是把所有的逆風放在一起,你能量化一下你今年看到的暫時的東西,無論是空運還是一些老海軍問題,你在 SG&A 採取的任何增量行動?我知道現在得出 2023 年的前景還為時過早,但正如我們在某種程度上審視什麼是合理的基線一樣,因為我們今年超越了許多逆流並重新走上實現長期利潤率目標的道路。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Mark, I mean, it's certainly heavy on our minds, getting back to the profit levels that we aspire to. I would reiterate the 2 big things that are weighing on the P&L, independent of sort of the Old Navy performance: the $350 million of air, which is transitory, and we do believe will go away, so that will be a benefit to operating margin next year; and then we said there's about $400-ish million of commodity pressure. That piece, I don't know, I mean, it's hard to know how long that's going to hang around and whether we believe that fuel will revert and that with lower demand, the supply impact to commodity prices will start to revert. So too early to say on that portion, but those are 2 big things that I would isolate.

    是的,馬克,我的意思是,回到我們渴望的利潤水平,這肯定讓我們很沉重。我要重申影響損益的兩件大事,與舊海軍的表現無關:3.5 億美元的空運,這是暫時的,我們相信會消失,因此這將有利於運營利潤率明年;然後我們說有大約 4 億美元的商品壓力。那篇文章,我不知道,我的意思是,很難知道這會持續多久,以及我們是否相信燃料會恢復,隨著需求下降,供應對商品價格的影響將開始恢復。現在說這部分還為時過早,但這是我要隔離的兩件大事。

  • And then the balance is really about recovery in Old Navy which, as Sonia said, we're sequentially seeing better improvement throughout the year. And certainly, by spring of 2023, we aspire to have a lot of the execution issues behind us.

    然後平衡實際上是關於舊海軍的恢復,正如索尼婭所說,我們全年都看到了更好的改善。當然,到 2023 年春天,我們渴望解決很多執行問題。

  • Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

    Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, can you update us on sort of the profitability in the e-commerce channel, I guess, some of the puts and takes this year as you manage through the tougher domestic freight backdrop? And any progress you're making on some of the kind of efficiency initiatives there?

    這很有幫助。然後作為後續行動,您能否向我們介紹一下電子商務渠道的盈利能力,我猜,在您應對更嚴峻的國內貨運背景時,今年的一些看跌期權?您在那裡的一些效率舉措方面取得了哪些進展?

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. The e-com calculus hasn't changed that dramatically from what we've said historically, which is that our e-com channel is profitable. And when you put a unit through e-com, it's about as profitable as putting it through a store. The weight on the P&L comes when you actually shift the unit from the store to online. And much of that shift has already been contemplated in the past because we went from 25% online to, call it, 39% online. That weight on the P&L is already in there, the reason being, obviously, that the rent and the packaging and the shipping sort of match off unless you're shifting. We've closed a substantial number of stores, which has really helped our ROD line and really helped to offset shipping and packaging. So we feel like we've balanced that fairly well.

    是的。與我們過去所說的相比,電子商務演算並沒有顯著改變,即我們的電子商務渠道是有利可圖的。當你通過電子商務銷售一個產品時,它的利潤就和通過商店銷售一樣。當您實際將設備從商店轉移到在線時,損益表的重量就來了。過去已經考慮過這種轉變的大部分,因為我們從 25% 的在線變為,稱之為 39% 的在線。損益表的重量已經存在,原因顯然是租金、包裝和運輸有點匹配,除非你正在轉移。我們已經關閉了大量商店,這確實幫助了我們的 ROD 產品線,並真正幫助抵消了運輸和包裝。所以我們覺得我們已經很好地平衡了這一點。

  • What was the second part of your question?

    你問題的第二部分是什麼?

  • Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

    Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst

  • Just more related to some of the efficiencies you might be seeing on the supply chain front, offset by just the domestic freight backdrop, but I think you covered some of it.

    與您可能在供應鏈方面看到的一些效率更相關,僅被國內貨運背景所抵消,但我認為您涵蓋了其中的一些內容。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. Well, Sonia is happy to.

    好的。好吧,索尼婭很高興。

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. I mean listen, I think that e-commerce, we're focused on getting more efficient. And the teams are oriented around shipments, returns improvements, ensuring that we've got high-efficiency distribution centers and last-mile logistics. And I think because we've been in the e-commerce business for so long, we're feeling good about some and we've got opportunity to get more efficient in others. So it is a focus for us, and we see that as opportunities ahead in terms of positive impact in the out years.

    是的。我的意思是聽著,我認為電子商務,我們專注於提高效率。團隊以發貨、退貨改進為導向,確保我們擁有高效的配送中心和最後一英里的物流。而且我認為因為我們從事電子商務業務已經很長時間了,我們對某些業務感覺良好,並且我們有機會在其他業務中提高效率。因此,這是我們關注的重點,我們認為這是未來幾年產生積極影響的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Jay Sole with UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。

  • Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury

    Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury

  • My question is about how you're viewing the back-to-school season. Obviously, lapping stimulus proved to be a challenging compare. But now as we get into back-to-school and you have the child tax credit and maybe a lot of pent-up demand from last year because there wasn't a lot of in-person school in 2020, how do you think the back-to-school season is going to play out?

    我的問題是關於你如何看待返校季。顯然,研磨刺激被證明是一個具有挑戰性的比較。但是現在我們開始返校了,你有兒童稅收抵免,可能還有很多去年被壓抑的需求,因為 2020 年沒有很多面對面的學校,你怎麼看開學季要上演了嗎?

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. No, we're excited about back-to-school, Jay. And Old Navy is the #1 kids brand in America, and our stock will be on time. Last year, we missed quite a bit of selling due to late back-to-school stock. So we're in a better stock position. We have authority. We have a great value proposition with our price unlock as well as great fashion. And so I think we feel good in Old Navy and in Gap to compete. We do think it's going to be a season where so many kids are going back to school in a greater quantity than they had. And I think we're excited to play there across the portfolio.

    是的。不,我們對返校很興奮,傑。 Old Navy 是美國排名第一的兒童品牌,我們的庫存會準時到貨。去年,由於返校股票較晚,我們錯過了相當多的拋售。所以我們的庫存狀況更好。我們有權威。我們的價格解鎖以及出色的時尚具有很高的價值主張。所以我認為我們在 Old Navy 和 Gap 中的競爭感覺很好。我們確實認為這將是一個如此多的孩子回到學校的人數比他們更多的季節。我認為我們很高興能在整個投資組合中發揮作用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Corey Tarlowe with Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自 Corey Tarlowe 和 Jefferies 的觀點。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

  • Firstly, can you talk about the shift that you've witnessed into occasion and work-based categories and the impact that you anticipate that to have on the business as we look ahead?

    首先,您能否談談您目睹的基於場合和基於工作的類別的轉變,以及您預計這對我們未來的業務產生的影響?

  • And then secondarily, can you provide us an update on the impact that China lockdowns have had on the business and what you're expecting going forward?

    其次,您能否向我們提供有關中國封鎖對業務的影響以及您對未來的期望的最新信息?

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks, Corey. I think we've seen it industry-wide, right? The high occasion and work categories are really winning right now as evidenced by Banana Republic seeing a 27% comparable sales growth in Q1. And so along with their strong showing, they're capitalizing on that shift. And we're seeing it in categories such as work bottoms, khakis, dresses across our portfolio. So I do think there was a very big consumer focus on active athleisure last year. This year, right now, it is about occasion, back-to-work, as the primary drivers of selling. Now it's going to continue to be very dynamic. Back-to-school is going to be a moment. Certainly, summer stock-up and summer vacations are always a moment for key shopping. So we're going to have to stay very close to this. I do think occasion and work categories will stay strong throughout the year, and we're leaning into that across the company in terms of the strong bottoms offering as we head into the back half of the year.

    謝謝,科里。我想我們已經在整個行業範圍內看到了它,對吧? Banana Republic 在第一季度實現了 27% 的可比銷售額增長,這證明了高場合和工作類別現在真的很受歡迎。因此,隨著他們的強勁表現,他們正在利用這種轉變。在我們的產品組合中,我們在工作褲、卡其褲、連衣裙等類別中看到了這一點。所以我確實認為去年消費者非常關注運動休閒。今年,現在,它是關於場合,重返工作崗位,作為銷售的主要驅動力。現在它將繼續非常活躍。回到學校將是一個時刻。當然,夏季備貨和暑假始終是重點購物的時刻。所以我們將不得不非常接近這一點。我確實認為場合和工作類別將在全年保持強勁,並且隨著我們進入今年下半年,我們正在向整個公司傾斜,以提供強勁的底部產品。

  • And then in terms of China lockdown, it's one of the factors that affected our guidance as Shanghai shut down. And while we're expecting some reopening there, there's some question on Beijing. And Asia for us is sizable for Gap brand. And so it's been one of the drivers for the more conservative outlook. We're hearing about a reopening certainly in June but really have to see how the consumer will respond to those reopenings and monitor carefully the impact to demand.

    然後就中國的封鎖而言,這是上海封鎖時影響我們指導的因素之一。雖然我們預計那裡會重新開放,但北京存在一些問題。對於我們來說,亞洲對於 Gap 品牌來說是相當大的。因此,它一直是更保守前景的驅動因素之一。我們肯定會在 6 月份聽到重新開放的消息,但確實必須看看消費者將如何應對這些重新開放,並仔細監控對需求的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from the line of Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research Associates.

    下一個問題來自 JJK Research Associates 的 Janet Kloppenburg。

  • Janet Joseph Kloppenburg - President

    Janet Joseph Kloppenburg - President

  • I just wanted to ask a couple of refinement questions. In terms of Athleta, I heard something about Active versus athleisure balance. Do you feel that there is some imbalance in the assortments? And do you think you'll have that balance back in the second half of the year? And on Old Navy, do you feel like those investments in wear-to-work, and the bottoms category, in particular, will be in time for the important wardrobing season in September, October? And just lastly, Katrina, how should we think about marketing for the second half of the year for both Old Navy and Gap?

    我只是想問幾個細化的問題。在 Athleta 方面,我聽說過一些關於 Active 與運動休閒平衡的事情。您是否覺得分類有一些不平衡?你認為你會在下半年恢復這種平衡嗎?在 Old Navy 上,你覺得那些在工作服,特別是下裝類別上的投資,是否能趕上 9 月和 10 月的重要衣櫥季節?最後,卡特里娜颶風,我們應該如何考慮 Old Navy 和 Gap 下半年的營銷?

  • Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

    Sonia Syngal - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Janet, let me start with Athleta. So my comment was that Athleta benefits from both performance active product as well as active lifestyle. And active lifestyle is about partly to wear that's performance fabrics, but you can wear it to commute. You can wear it to vacations. You can wear it for different-use occasions and pure performance. And it's always enjoyed roughly a 50-50 split there. While we're seeing some, relative to last year, reversion on pure performance active, the active lifestyle product is resonating. And so it's not about an imbalance. It's more about what is in the here now driving the customer response.

    是的,珍妮特,讓我從運動員開始。所以我的評論是,Athleta 受益於性能活躍的產品和積極的生活方式。而積極的生活方式,部分是為了穿那是性能面料,但你可以穿它去上下班。你可以穿它去度假。您可以將它用於不同的使用場合和純粹的性能。它總是在那裡享受大約 50-50 的分裂。雖然我們看到一些,相對於去年,純粹的表現活躍回歸,但積極的生活方式產品正在引起共鳴。因此,這與不平衡無關。更多的是關於現在推動客戶響應的內容。

  • As we look to the second half, we certainly expect the versatility in the Athleta assortment to build from performance to active lifestyle to give the choice. And by the way, Active, it's here to stay. It's really just about the fact that last year was over 100% growth in women's active as a category. And this year, we're just seeing some slight reversion there. We do expect it to normalize over time.

    當我們展望下半年時,我們當然希望 Athleta 產品系列的多功能性能夠從表現到積極的生活方式來提供選擇。順便說一句,Active,它會一直存在。事實上,去年女性活躍作為一個類別增長了 100% 以上。而今年,我們只是看到了一些輕微的回歸。我們確實希望它隨著時間的推移而正常化。

  • And then your question on Old Navy, wear-to-work and bottom, Old Navy has been very focused on bottoms authority, whether it's range of denim with a versatile end use or expanding its pants category. So we are expecting key pants to introduce in the fall holiday time frame, and we look forward to seeing the response to that.

    然後是關於 Old Navy、工作服和下裝的問題,Old Navy 一直非常關注下裝的權威,無論是具有多種最終用途的牛仔系列還是擴大其褲子類別。因此,我們預計關鍵褲子將在秋季假期時間框架內推出,我們期待看到對此的回應。

  • Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

    Katrina O'Connell - Executive VP & CFO

  • And then for marketing, Janet, as a way to manage overall SG&A to the lower level of sales, we have pulled marketing dollars out of the business. I would say it's probably logical that we're seeing more marketing at Banana Republic and Athleta given their disproportionately better performance. And we are definitely being more conservative at Old Navy and I guess, to a lesser degree, Gap domestically but certainly more internationally. But overall, marketing as a percent of sales is probably still in that 6%, 6.5% range for the year, but it's very different by brand. And as I said, we've really pulled back the dollars based on the lower sales.

    然後對於營銷,珍妮特,作為一種將整體 SG&A 管理到較低銷售水平的方式,我們已經從業務中提取了營銷資金。我會說,鑑於 Banana Republic 和 Athleta 的出色表現,我們看到更多的營銷活動可能是合乎邏輯的。而且我們在 Old Navy 肯定更加保守,我想,在較小程度上,Gap 在國內,但肯定在國際上更多。但總體而言,今年的營銷佔銷售額的百分比可能仍在 6% 到 6.5% 的範圍內,但品牌差異很大。正如我所說,由於銷售額下降,我們確實收回了美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes the Q&A session as well as today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    問答環節和今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。