巴里克黃金 (GOLD) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

  • This is the conference operator.

  • Welcome to the Barrick 2018 Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call.

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on Barrick's website tonight, February 13th, 2019.

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Bristow, Chief Executive Officer of Barrick.

  • Please go ahead, sir.

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, very much.

  • And I think it's working.

  • Morning, everyone.

  • Welcome.

  • As you've seen we're starting something new here, face-to-face quarterlies.

  • So I'm sure we're going to get better at this as we go along.

  • We -- warm welcome to the people on the call, wherever you are.

  • We have structured it so that our investors across the globe are able to participate at a reasonable hour.

  • And so those who have phoned in particularly from London and Africa, you're all very welcome.

  • You'll see that the presentation today is a little different than what it'll be in the future.

  • As you know, we closed the transaction on the 1st of January, so the reports for quarter 4 and 2018 are separate, and that's why you've got these 2 different documents.

  • And then we've put a wrapper together to pick up on the forward-looking business.

  • And so I'm going to present the results in that format, but at the same time, I'm going to, as we flow through the assets, also give you some color of how far we've got in the short time that we've been officially together and give you a feel of the road ahead for each of the assets.

  • As you know, it's been barely 7 weeks since this merger of Barrick and Randgold became effective.

  • And what I am able to tell you that in that short time, we've made a really strong start towards our goal of becoming the world's most valued gold company.

  • And I'm sure sometimes that's lost on you, but valued means we want everyone to understand that we are a business driven, both value creation and also valued as a partner and an operator in our host countries.

  • For both John and I, and when we were motivating this transaction, we were very clear about it that the aim was never to be bigger, it was to combine world-class assets with world-class people in a business capable of sustainable, profitable growth and industry leadership.

  • And so my first priority has therefore, been to see that we have teams and structures fit for purpose, and we've made a lot of progress in this regard as I'm sure you'll get to appreciate as we go through this presentation.

  • We've now got fully functional regional executive teams with North America, that's the U.S., Canada and Alaska being driven by Catherine and her team.

  • Latin America, led by Mark Hill and his team; and Africa, led by Willem Jacobs and his team.

  • And they're -- without a doubt, every one of them are making very significant progress in effecting our new strategy, which again, I would point out, we created through a series of consultations with the senior executive leadership of both organizations going back as far as July last year.

  • And so this is not a business that's been hatched by 2 individuals, but it's been sold and motivated to the future leadership of this organization.

  • Supporting these executive teams is a new corporate team with a mix of skills and experience, which I believe, when you put it all together on a side-by-side analysis, there is not another resource company on this planet that has the depth and breadth of skills that Barrick can boast today.

  • The corporate office and its satellites have been restructured to move people and functions such as the innovation in digital departments out of the back rooms and into the operations, where they belong.

  • So those short little historical cries about us closing down stuff is unfounded.

  • We really put people back to where they're supposed to be to ensure that we do lead properly in the mining industry.

  • Mining plans are being moved, and we talked about this in the announcement from a cash flow optimization base to a model focused on optimizing the ore body and using input costs to drive the margin and design rather than high grading revenue to drive the free cash flow.

  • And to this end, there are now mineral resource management teams at each of the mines.

  • And I would say that, probably with one exception, they're all new in the leadership.

  • At the same time, all our systems are being revised to give management the kind of real-time data access we had at Randgold.

  • All in all then, this strategically repositioned Barrick is beginning to take shape that is in line with my vision and what an agile and effective modern mining company should be.

  • And I can assure you, it's been hard work and a little bit of stress, but we're at that point now where certainly, I can speak for myself, starting to have a lot more fun.

  • And I've got no doubt that you will see the benefits of a really motivated and energized management team going forward.

  • You need to read this, please.

  • I -- we used to put at in the back of the presentation, but as you will get to know, I've become a very compliant person.

  • So we turn now to the results for the past year starting with the premerger Barrick.

  • So we'll deal Barrick, and as I say, I'll also touch on looking at the header under each section.

  • The annual dividend, as you know, was increased by 33% on the back of a strong cash flow and total debt, gross debt was reduced, leaving Barrick with a strong liquidity position and certainly a balance sheet that's eminently manageable.

  • The injury and environmental incident rates both came down, a significant achievement in an industry with inherently high risk.

  • And on the new business front, exploration and project development in Nevada and the Dominican Republic delivered some exciting potential, and I will expand on that as we go.

  • A reality check on the value of certain assets, which necessitates some impairments as well as the derecognition of deferred tax assets, that you've got the detail in your packs, resulted in attributable loss for the year.

  • I'll touch on the impairments as we go through the presentation.

  • Copper and gold production for the year were in line with guidance as was the all-in sustaining cost for each.

  • And here you can see the salient financial results, which reflects the operating performance and my earlier comments.

  • Total capital expenditure at $1.4 billion was at the bottom of the guidance range.

  • The group's, as I pointed out in the introduction, health and safety performance continued to improve, which is very encouraging as the 5-year trend on this bar chart shows.

  • So now I'll start with the operational review, and we'll begin in Nevada, which is now being operated as a single complex under our new executive General Manager.

  • And so Catherine has rearranged the management team, and so for those who know Randgold it's a bit like Loulo-Gounkoto, but on steroids.

  • And we have dedicated managers in place now for each mine, that's Goldstrike, Cortez and Turquoise Ridge, and we've got a new leadership structure as well in Goldrush-Fourmile project.

  • And within this complex gold production at Cortez, as we've been messaging you, and we certainly did that at the transaction as well, is transitioning from a largely an open pit to predominantly underground and from processing predominantly oxide ore to a mixture of oxide and more refractory material, and lower throughput at the oxide mill reduced gold production for the year.

  • And that Cortez open pit will come to an end during the year.

  • We'll certainly -- actually it comes to an end in quarter 2, and then we'll process some dumps after the end of the year.

  • And I would just also point out that the move -- so when you see the cost increase for this year in our 12 months forecast, that's the driver, but I would add that all the other parts of the Nevada complex are all delivering an increase in production and a significant drop in costs, but not enough to mask the change for cost for the Cortez open pit.

  • That will change as we develop the Crossroads pit.

  • It's a longer change because the way -- the most optimum way of developing the Crossroads pit results in a steady increase in grade that eventually peaks out in 2025, but again, we've indicated that now with this result -- we're 7 weeks into the program, we've got a good handle on this year's production and during the year, we will be updating you with -- as we -- as you -- those who know me are clear about, as a detailed 5-year plan going forward.

  • The other aspect of our work in all the various operations, and in particular, in Nevada, is that we've really focused in on mineral resource management.

  • As I pointed out in the introduction, we have a full new team there, and the same with brownfields and greenfields exploration because moving there, that was one thing that we shared with you and that was short is that with the drive for cash flow, there was the geological side of the legacy bag, was not where I want it to be.

  • And it's certainly -- and so we are moving towards planning based on life-of-mine on geological models.

  • A very big drop on reconciliation on a weekly basis, and we will eventually get that as we have in Africa to a reconciliation on a daily basis.

  • Within the Cortez District, Goldrush and the nearby Fourmile discovery have been combined into 1 project.

  • They're still 2 different parts of that project at this stage with the Goldrush being the, sort of, feasibility-driven project, but every indication has said it's going to be a continuous ore body.

  • We've drilled out -- we've got a gap between the 2, Fourmile and Goldrush, of about 500 meters left, but we've drilled some holes just recently, we haven't got results back from them, but certainly the indication is that, that mineralization continues.

  • And the development of the Twin exploration declines at Goldrush continue, and these declines are already focusing in on getting into the ore body and to be able to do detailed reserve drilling initially, and then they will also be adapted for operational use later.

  • And in the feasibility and schedules of the Goldrush-Fourmile project are a very real focus for the new team.

  • As I said, we've got a new leadership in that project, and we're going to be reshaping, reevaluating that project, it's a super exciting project.

  • It's a primary discovery, first of all.

  • Secondly, it's already well north of 10 million ounces.

  • And every -- and we've just announced endowment in the Fourmile section, the small resource based on the drilling we've done today, but at a very impressive grade of 18.58 grams a tonne.

  • And it's within a very significantly mineralized footprint and certainly underlies this -- the Goldrush-Fourmile status as a genuinely world class at the stage feasibility project and with a very real potential to become Barrick's next Tier 1 mine.

  • And so -- and again, that's something as a geologist, you got to look at that mineralization and the sort of level of intersects and grade is just spectacular.

  • Staying in Nevada, Turquoise Ridge is continuing to -- its production ramp-up, and the focus is on accelerating this through the greater and more efficient use of roader -- road header technology.

  • Again, the whole relook at all the underground mines with respect to geotechnical, the parameters and redesign of the various mining methods, and we've got no doubt that with the shafters on track, on budget, and that by its very self will bring down cost, but the focus is how do we bring down costs at Turquoise Ridge ahead of the shaft commissioning out in 2022.

  • And at the same time, under the new TMA agreement with Twin Creeks, we are ramping up the tonnes processed, which will continue to support the production growth -- gold production growth at Turquoise Ridge.

  • The mineral resource management and mine planning, again, has been reenergized, and it's focused on ore body optimization and exploration has the task of replacing the mined ounces.

  • So even though we're still ramping up, we've -- with our whole culture of investing in our future, we have already challenged the exploration team to get out there and work on replacing the gold that we're going to mine.

  • We're also looking to appoint a very specific underground mining manager at Turquoise Ridge as part of the new management structure.

  • And the former manager, Henri, is a very talented South African General Manager will be moving to lead the Cortez business unit, and we'll replace him with somebody who's very focused because Turquoise Ridge is effectively an underground mining project rather than an integrated gold mine.

  • Over now to the Dominican Republic.

  • And I'm still practicing how to say PV in Spanish.

  • So all of you'll excuse me I'll refer to it as PV, but that -- just because it's got a short name doesn't mean it isn't already significant Tier 1 asset in our portfolio.

  • And of course, one of the lowest cost profiles in the legacy Barrick portfolio as well.

  • And it's not only a very important asset for Barrick, it's also the most significant contributor to the Dominican Republic economy.

  • There's still a lot of upside at this asset, and the team is very focused on delivering its full value and expanding its current reserves.

  • We've recently finished a scoping study and pilot plant, which support the expansion of what is really one of the world's largest gold mines.

  • And based on this work, we are now progressing towards a feasibility study, and this expansion project is designed to deliver a life-of-mine well into the 2030s, allowing the mine to maintain annual production of approximately 800,000 ounces per year after 2022, where things were going to -- originally going to drop off.

  • And also, as far -- as part of that project is the conversion of the generators from heavy fuel to gas, which again, drives the cost down.

  • So all in all, a really exciting project to work with, and right up the Rod Quick and John Steele's street.

  • And part of what we bring is some real-proven process flow sheets as far as ultrafine grind and the sort of more taint-driven oxidation processes rather than the current envisaged leach process.

  • In Argentina, the picture is more challenging, with the Argentine government's currency devaluation and consequential changes in the fiscal regime impacting on the fair value of the asset, which as you will see in the pack has resulted in an after-tax impairment of $314 million.

  • And so in order to restore Veladero to -- we have to really reinvent the way we've been operating it.

  • And again, Mark and his team have already gone a long way to decide what we need to do, and we're -- and currently rolling the new reshaping of both the leadership and the focus on how we operate at that very high altitude.

  • Cost discipline and increase these efficiencies is what the operation needs in addition to a real heavy dose of geological input.

  • As a first step, I've sent in some geological firepower as well as a mineral resource management review team to get a firm grip on the situation and find the best way forward.

  • There are some significant potential resources that currently fall outside the current pit, which need evaluating, and that is the focus of the combined Barrick-Shandong review team.

  • And again, we've embraced Shandong as a partner and really started to get them involved in -- as an active joint venture partner.

  • And on the cost side, we are, again, working in partnership with Shandong to lower the overall cost structure by: one, improving management oversight; REIT -- rightsizing the G&A as we've done here in the corporate; focusing on supply chain and other operational efficiencies; and also, we've got a project, which is a very exciting project to bring cheap power in from Chile.

  • Again in the Pascua-Lama project, Barrick spent money to bring power to the border of Chile and Argentina.

  • And so we're looking at bringing that -- extending that infrastructure to be able to -- because it's right there and Veladero relies on very expensive thermal power today.

  • Also as already indicated, we are continuing to work with Shandong on other opportunities that the team has identified along the El Indio belt, and I'll touch on that a little bit later.

  • We're also developing a new plan for Lagunas Norte, our Peruvian operation, following the suspension of the plan to sell all Barrick's assets in that country.

  • Peru has a new government, as you know or you should know, which is more mining friendly than its predecessor, and it remains a key destination for Barrick in its endeavor to revitalize its greenfields exploration into South America.

  • The new objective is to update the geology and the ore body models, assess the satellite oxide potential and focus on extending the known high grade sulfide mineralization all in the same pit and, as I indicated, in some satellite pits.

  • And the outcome of these exercises will enable us to determine the future of this business.

  • So right now, we'll be running down the oxide reserves and are much more comfortable that we -- when we get to the end of the that, and we will be looking at some extension potential, we'll put that mine on care and maintenance and finish the job of the sulfide properly before deciding how we continue.

  • So again, you'll see in the impairments, the CMOP project which is a project focused on processing the more refractory ore, which is both in stockpile and store fits -- sits in the pit.

  • It doesn't meet our criteria, but it has the potential to get close to it, if not meet it if we were able to drill out some more reserves.

  • And so in the interim, we have impaired those stockpiles going forward, so that we, again, start with a clean slate going forward.

  • As for Pierina, the closure program is well advanced.

  • Also in addition to the site-focused work streams, the numerous support offices in Chile, Peru, Argentina and the Dominican Republic have been downsized to reflect the new lean operating model.

  • At Porgera, we have engaged with our partners and are fully aligned on the path forward for the approval of the new SML due -- that's the mining lease extension, due in August 2019.

  • And as with the number of the Barrick assets, Porgera has been a little neglected and certainly, starved of capital for many years due to the uncertainty around the SML extension.

  • So 2019 -- in fact, we leave -- Mark and myself and the team leave for Porgera tonight.

  • And it's the only asset I haven't spent any time on.

  • So we're going to have a good look and meet with the PNG government and so on.

  • And our focus, this year, 2019 is to assess the full potential of this asset and to go -- and decide on a go-forward plan with that project because there's one thing that is absolutely clear is that this asset keeps producing positive cash flows despite the challenges it has to face, and we all know that part of the world is home to many world-class deposits.

  • While Barrick was managing down its debt, it there was a necessary, but somewhat single-minded focus on cash flows as I pointed out in my introduction and what are the consequences of this was the relative neglect of exploration in Latin America, where we have now revitalized our exploration programs and are actively pursuing brownfields and greenfields opportunities, which are presented to you.

  • Here, I'll just give you a simple example.

  • That Alturas project, I think this has got a -- there.

  • That's about 8 million ounces, did you say, when you combine them across the border at over a gram, very low strip ratio, high altitude, of course.

  • And that's the sort of size of projects that we have in our portfolio.

  • So very -- I mean, as for a geologist it's like being a kid in a candy store.

  • We also, you would have noticed, announced an increased investment in -- and in a strategic alliance with Reunion, through which we plan to establish ourselves, as we've talked about for some time, both Barrick and Randgold, in the very perspective and underexplored Guyana Shield.

  • Copper assets in the group had a better year in 2018 with Jabal Sayid, which is a very tightly run operation and relatively high grade for a copper deposit, come -- where it completed the underground development and is now primarily mining ore rather than focusing on development.

  • And the challenge of this asset is now to ramp up to its 2.5 million tonnes per annum nameplate.

  • In the meantime, it makes a fair contribution to profits, generates good cash flow and even at a -- at our commodity price, long-term commodity price of $2.75.

  • And as part of that, we've renewed the contract mining there, and all the new equipment has been ordered, so that project is definitely one that is you don't have to worry too much about.

  • Although, we will be continuing to strip some of the cost out of that mine.

  • The Lumwana asset performed well in quarter 4 but had a significant throughput -- had some significant throughput and mining challenges through the year.

  • It is a low grade mine although it's a very large, and so cost control and efficiencies are critical to its profitability.

  • We've had a team up there spending time with -- again, it's an asset that was largely left out of everyday sort of supervision.

  • And as part of the focus on cash flow, stripping has been neglected and really all pushed out, but in the plan.

  • And so stripping has now become critical to maintain the operation and you will have seen the debate in the press about us engaging with the Zambians to make sure that everyone understands this a national asset, and it needs to be run in such a way that we can continue to support the Zambian economy as this mine has done for many years so far.

  • Zaldivar produced 29.3 million pounds of copper ore -- for those -- and we are busy trying to metricize Barrick, particularly in Nevada.

  • So we also have 13,300 tonnes of copper in Q4, it was 5% up on Q3 and produced 47,300 tonnes of copper for 2018.

  • Again, that mine experienced issues associated with the fixed and mobile plant throughout most of the year although, the throughput improved significantly as we got on top of it in the last quarter.

  • And focus for 2019 will be on improving the availability of both fixed and mobile plant.

  • And more importantly, executing this secondary sulfide project, which will go hand in glove with the extending the pit and mining more and more of the transitional ore.

  • Focus on these 3 areas will also ensure better efficiencies and improved production, as I said, as the pit expands.

  • And then, these are the Barrick reserves and resources, calculated on a premerger basis under Barrick's specifications where they use a $1,200 -- or they used a $1,200 gold price to calculate reserves.

  • In the course of this year, we'll be rationalizing both the legacy Barrick and legacy Randgold's criteria and combining the declarations by the end of the year in a single set of assumptions backed by -- and you need to appreciate -- you can't just go into a mine plan, and say okay, it's calculated at $1,200 and change the gold price to $1,000 because you don't get an optimum plan, you've got to replan the whole mine, and we're busy with those replanning, and we will coalesce the metrics at which we calculate reserves.

  • Attributable proven and profitable reserves are down principally on the back of the depletion of the Cortez Hills open pit, as I indicated earlier.

  • And also the rightsizing of the Bulyanhulu underground reserve, but the most important thing, and this is what makes us a stand-out company, is that the total grade has increased.

  • And this is off the back of material adding -- added during the year being over 4 grams a tonne.

  • So although, it's a small increase, it actually quite significant because there's a lot of tonnes in this table.

  • And again, you'll see, as we get our head around it, I mean this is the really exciting thing for Barrick, and if you have -- I'll just touch on one little thing that really excites me is that, if you look at the Barrick reserves in Nevada just, it's -- the average grade is about 3.5 grams a tonnes, which is significantly higher than anyone else, but more importantly, the resources, correct me, Rob, it’s there about 5.5 -- 5.4-something grams a tonne, the resources in Nevada.

  • Yes.

  • It is -- I know it is.

  • So when you look at it, the resources are very profitable, and the conversion -- and the reason is because of the resources in Turquoise Ridge and more importantly the resources in the Goldrush and Fourmile, so that -- as we convert that, that reserve base is going to grow both in ounces and in quality.

  • And that's the whole game in gold mining, as you know.

  • You start with world-class assets, you deliver world-class businesses.

  • So let's move back, then, onto Randgold Resources and these are the highlights for the quarter and 2018 for Randgold.

  • This company took an emotional bow, but with a flourish, presenting shareholders with a 35% rise in the annual dividend and boosting its cash on hand to $750 million at year-end with no debt.

  • And it's worth pointing out that if you take out the dividend, you really are still back at about $500 million, which is what our policy was.

  • And so we rolled that $500 million into Barrick as we closed.

  • This is largely driven by stellar performances from Kibali and Loulo-Gounkoto, which helped offset the impact of a protracted illegal strike at Tongon.

  • Group production for the year of 1.28 million ounces was just 1% below guidance.

  • And again, as you know, we don't run our businesses for the quarter but for the long term.

  • And so those tracts, we were -- we don't want to high grade Tongon.

  • So we had to manage our way through that challenge.

  • Total cash cost per ounce were in line with forecast.

  • And the earnings, as you see here, were impacted by the Barrick merger costs as well as we added an additional tax accrual for the Mali mediation process.

  • Like Barrick, Randgold had a good health and safety year, decreasing the total injury frequency rate to a new record low.

  • And the Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali, one of new Barrick's Tier 1 assets, delivered a record throughput at the reserve grade.

  • And again, that's important.

  • We are mining these assets at reserve grade despite, as I pointed out, some industrial action right at the end of the year.

  • It continues to invest in its future and through such developments as the new super pit at Gounkoto, and ongoing brownfields exploration successes points to a life of mine in excess of 10 years and certainly potential to continue to replace what we mine.

  • The Loulo 3 open pit and underground project is particularly promising, and a preliminary economic assessment has been completed.

  • And as I've mentioned before, the discovery of this high-grade shoot located between relatively close-spaced drilling on the 10-kilometer long Yalea structure highlights the potential for additional discoveries along and outside the known ore bodies.

  • The Loulo district has been one of the most prolific producers of world-class gold deposits in the last 3 decades, and it's certainly still extremely prospective and both for extensions, which has driven the continued -- Loulo's been around since 2005, and it's continually added and replaced ounces at better grade.

  • There's a renewed focus across the river in Senegal with our Bambadji joint venture with Iamgold.

  • It's a very exciting project.

  • And as you know, geology never stops at international boundaries.

  • Tongon in Côte d'Ivoire has faced many challenges in its life, as you know, including a crippling illegal strike in quarter 3, from which it emerged strongly to end the year in line with its revised production guidance.

  • And really this mine, when it works, it works really well, thanks to an excellent management team.

  • And despite its problems, it's worth noting that it's been consistently profitable, and it's a very material cash generator for our group.

  • As at the other operations, we continue to explore around the mine for extensions to the main structure and satellites with the potential to add to the life of mine.

  • And again, Côte d'Ivoire combines geological potential.

  • It's relatively underexplored with a advanced infrastructure, certainly, again relative to the surrounding countries and particularly in the north of the country.

  • And so it's a key exploration focus for our team going forward.

  • In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kibali delivered another stellar performance.

  • It's our fifth mine that we've built that has delivered on all its nameplates.

  • And production exceeded our guidance significantly and was 35% ahead of last year's production.

  • Kibali is one of the most mechanized mines in the Barrick stable with emission control systems.

  • So we have our whole underground ore handling logistics, it gets managed without any human intervention apart from the person sitting on the surface operating.

  • And this has been key to the successful ramp-up of our underground production.

  • And we've also seen a steady increase in recoveries up to the 89% recovery, which is the nameplate design in the feasibility study.

  • Continuing brownfields exploration.

  • As is with all of our mining operations, continues to identify numerous opportunities for reserve replacement and in particular, some new open cost opportunities, which is an important component of the processing plant feed because the predominant driver of value in Kibali is underground, but it's limited on rate of production.

  • So additional open cost ore on the margin is a significant boost to both production and profits.

  • Over in Senegal, the feasibility study in Massawa has been completed.

  • And it certainly confirms that Massawa, as I've said for some time, is one of the best, if not the best, undeveloped projects in Africa.

  • It's now banked.

  • So it's a very detailed full feasibility study.

  • And the study's findings are summarized here in this slide.

  • And you'll see a bit shy on our filter under the $1,000 gold price but still very profitable.

  • And you can see how quickly it grows its returns at $1,200 and $1,400 gold.

  • We -- the permit -- under the permit conditions had required us to complete this study and file for a mining permit by the end of January, which we've done.

  • At the same time, that process is going to take time to finalize the mining permit, and we are continuing our brownfields exploration drive because we're certainly not short yet of opportunities to continue to expand this project.

  • Again, finishing off, this is the Randgold annual reserves and resources report.

  • And although the proven and probable reserves are partially replaced, the grade improvement was significant, some 6% increase in grade.

  • And that's our focus, is quality.

  • And it was really driven by Yalea underground extensions where we added 418,000 ounces at 10 grams a tonne.

  • Randgold resource numbers, I just would point out, they report differently to Barrick.

  • So their part of the reserve fits into the resource.

  • So that's why it's side by side.

  • And group resources were just below and mostly replaced what we mined.

  • And again, that's the process in the long term.

  • Ultimately, we've been able to continue to replace the ounces.

  • There's a lot of visibility in the resource profile of Loulo, and we've got no doubt that in the fullness of time, it will continue to perform as we have in the past.

  • As discussed during the investor roadshow, in November last year, one of the key opportunities we identified in this combination, apart from just putting a great team together and dominating the Tier 1 asset portfolio in the industry, was in respect of inventory management and supply chain.

  • And again, we've done a lot of work on this already in the short time we've been at it.

  • And to this extent, we have said we see visibility to reduce the costs, that's annual spending on procurement, by $200 million by the end of 2020.

  • $50 million of that is in the budget already.

  • So it's embedded in our forecast.

  • There's another $90 million -- is it $90 million -- that we believe we will deliver this year, and the remaining $60 million will come in 2020.

  • And so moving on then -- by the way, as well as that we have a -- we, again, believe that we will be able to take out around $150 million in inventory management, just stores management.

  • Again, unlocking some working capital through this year.

  • So I think when you look at the -- what we've achieved out of the blocks.

  • And this is -- and it's worth pointing out that this is on the back of the significant reductions in these specific costs, particularly admin and G&A, that the Barrick team had already delivered on during 2018.

  • And so looking ahead, this is our guidance for the group for 2019.

  • And that's -- the detail is in your pack on a project-by-project basis.

  • And I'm sure you will, through the fullness of time, get back to us with your questions.

  • But I pointed out the big driver on this is really the change in the Cortez open pit mining schedule.

  • But again, that will reverse over the next while.

  • And what's not baked in this is the ongoing efficiencies and our focus of being ore body focused going forward and shifting from cash flow or cutoff grade to cost reduction and building the margin through that reduction and dropping the cutoff grade going forward.

  • We are still working on, as I pointed out, a detailed 5-year plan, and we'll present this to the market in due course once we have a clearer view on asset optimization.

  • And this is requiring a full replanning process for the group.

  • You will note, we have significantly reduced our corporate and project costs, both in 2018 and forecast for 2019, largely driven by a reduction in headcount and other costs outside of the operations.

  • There will be an area that will -- this will certainly be an area that we'll continue to focus on as we progress throughout the year.

  • And on a go-forward basis, we have already cut more than $150 million from corporate costs -- from the corporate cost base.

  • And exploration expenditure is expected to be in line with the prior year.

  • That's despite the fact that we've combined the 2 companies.

  • And we don't expect to drop any catches on our exploration.

  • I've been a big believer in exploration.

  • We keep it tight, and you force the geology team to prioritize and keep the quality of the targets at a high level.

  • The production guidance for copper is in line with the previous years, as you'll see.

  • And the detail is, again, published in the documents that you have.

  • Lumwana, we'll continue to engage with Zambian -- the Zambian government and community stakeholders about a mutually beneficial way forward for this operation.

  • And you would have seen that the Minister of Mines did declare publicly through a press release that he is ready to engage with Barrick on a tailor-made tax solution for Lumwana as a result of the engagement over the last 3 months and in particular our discussions last week in Cape Town at Indaba.

  • At Zaldivar, we and our partners have agreed to proceed with the proposed expansion project, as indicated under the copper report.

  • And as I pointed out as well, Barrick's future is really weighted towards underground mining.

  • As you know, that's our core skill in the Randgold team, and we have brought in a lot of skills into Nevada, both external and on the leadership side, to augment the team there.

  • And I've got no doubt that you'll continue to see us unlocking value in that part of our business.

  • Before we close, let me briefly preempt your question on Acacia.

  • The current impasse, as I'm sure you all agree with me, is clearly a lose-lose situation for Acacia shareholders and other stakeholders, which includes Barrick, and of course, the Tanzanian government.

  • We do and are engaged -- we remain and are engaged in mediating a solution amongst the key stakeholders.

  • And I am confident that this situation will be resolved, as I've said repeatedly in the press, in due course and no doubt for the benefit of all stakeholders.

  • And then finally, looking ahead, I always say if you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there.

  • So we have a clear mission.

  • We know exactly where we're going to, and this mission is to be the world's most valued gold mining business.

  • And we're going to do this by finding, developing and owning the best assets with the best people and to deliver sustainable returns for our owners and our partners.

  • We plan to do this through applying our key strategic filters, and you'll see that we have a set of very clear strategic filters.

  • We have shared this with the market at our Investor Day, and it will give you a very clear understanding of how we manage.

  • And you can hold us to account on the way we manage our assets going forward.

  • Last, we have already streamlined our corporate offices across the group.

  • We will continue to rationalize the organization as we move to a fully integrated business as well as roll out our system so that we manage in real time with an agile approach to responding to business challenges and also investing in our future.

  • Again, whilst we have already starting to develop our ore body knowledge, mobilized an exploration drive to find new opportunities and reviewed existing assets for optimization or disposal, it's just the start.

  • And there will be more to come with additional benefits for sure.

  • We also plan to work at continuing to develop our social license.

  • You know that's very close to my heart and it's something that's applicable in Africa, in South America and equally in places like Nevada and around Hemlo, as Catherine and I have discovered.

  • We're going to strengthen our partnerships with our joint venture partners and also with our host governments.

  • And to this end, I have already met with the governor of the San Juan province in Argentina, which is a challenging area for us.

  • Catherine's already started her meeting schedules with the new leadership in Nevada, and we've met with the mayors and the local leadership in and around Hemlo.

  • And so -- and we will continue to do that on a regular basis.

  • And the only reason that you don't find me in an office in Toronto every day is because it's much more important and a lot more fun being in the operations.

  • Over the next quarter and starting tonight, I'll be conducting strategy reviews and team effectiveness exercises as we roll out our group strategy across the operations.

  • And the objective of that is to ensure that everyone is -- understands the strategic objectives, aims, and we turn that into specific plans in each operation.

  • As you will probably note, we are clearly well out of the starting blocks in this exciting voyage.

  • And I'm confident that by the end of this year and throughout this year, we'll be able to report back to you and show you and take those promises that we've made as we deliver on them.

  • I'm very excited, in case you haven't observed, by the prospect of putting Barrick -- the Barrick brand back where it belongs.

  • And that is at the head of the gold mining industry.

  • So thank you very much, everyone, for your attention.

  • And the process now is that we will take questions from the call-in people first, Danny, and then we'll open it up for the floor.

  • So that gives you a chance to flesh out some questions.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from John Bridges of JPMorgan.

  • John David Bridges - Senior Analyst

  • Maybe you're going to be lucky with the Reunion purchase and find an asset in Suriname, which is a Dutch name which might be easier to pronounce.

  • But I was wondering, you've given us a 5-year production plan or at least -- sorry, you've given us the outline for 2019.

  • But you're in the process of figuring out which assets to keep and which assets are noncore.

  • When do you think you're going to have a firmer outline of what the company's going to look like over the next 4, 5 years?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • John, next week.

  • I'm only saying that because everyone's terrified that I'm going to say -- give you a date.

  • And so I'm not.

  • John, we are working on that.

  • And our guidance for this year is 5.1 to 5.6, and that's before disposals.

  • So we will adjust that as we go.

  • And I think, again, I would just leave you with the fact that if you look at the Nevada guidance and you look at the PV guidance and you look at the core assets in Africa and add them up, that's the basis going forward.

  • And there's no -- the asset production plans are going to be there and thereabouts.

  • What we want to do is, of course, is to -- certainly like in Nevada, there's a lot of work to do on cutoff grades and rolling out the automation, both at Turquoise Ridge and at Goldstrike.

  • We're just starting to see the benefits of the underground, some very significant efficiency improvement in the Cortez underground as we move from the old-style Nevada, small-scale mining underground to open-stope, long-haul drilling with backhaul.

  • And again, that's -- and again, we've got a group of mining engineers and both short-term and long-term planners along with reviewing the geotechnics because the geotechnical work has been done but really looking at the rock integrity and the best way to mine some of these ore bodies.

  • And that's going to take some time.

  • And so -- and that -- if you look at Nevada in each aspect of our business, we're very excited about the work that's been done with the road header in Turquoise Ridge and the ability to mine at a better rate in that rock, which is quite challenging as far as rock goes and support.

  • Already, we -- just as an example, we're changing the support strategy for Goldrush.

  • And we expect to do similar changes across the group, particularly in Nevada.

  • PV, it's the same.

  • There's definitely opportunities to improve on the cost base and therefore look at the cutoff grades.

  • And as I pointed out, the improved power opportunities are significant.

  • And also, the ability -- the team is now engaged with the Dominican Republic to sell power because we generate excess power.

  • And again, how we can manage that, it has a benefit on our cost, a significant benefit on our cost, which will, again, drive our business plan.

  • And also, once we bank the feasibility study, there are some significant resources in the current plan, which will immediately become reserves.

  • And we'll unlock them.

  • So again, that will change the life-of-mine plan.

  • And so -- and Veladero, right now it's all about rightsizing.

  • That was a big operation, and we've focused on gold production, and what we're moving to is a focus on profitability.

  • And so 500,000 ounces or thereabouts is probably -- for the next couple of years is the right target.

  • But again, we need a lot more geological input to be able to really understand our mining reconciliation and what we're putting on the leach pads.

  • And also, there's a requirement for a new leach pad, which we're busy designing and permitting at the moment.

  • And that will also be important to be able to schedule our mining going forward.

  • And again, we've got some potential for additional resources right, as I said in my speech, at the southern end of the pit.

  • And so we've got to drill it.

  • The drill spacing is just too far apart to be able to put that into a mine plan.

  • So what I'm trying to show you is that there's a lot of work to do.

  • We're sure that we will have those detailed plans that we can stand by the end of the year.

  • And should, for some miraculous reason, we get there earlier, we will share it with you.

  • Operator

  • The next question comes from Mark Magarian of UBS group.

  • Mark Magarian

  • Mark, I have just kind of an extension, I guess, of the previous question.

  • So it's been said that there's going to be -- the portfolio's going to be looked at, and you're going to look at disposals, maybe even look at acquisition opportunities as you start to develop what your long-term vision looks like.

  • Given where the gold price is currently, there are a lot of companies trading sort of below book value more to do with technical reasons and just a bit of sector hate even though the gold price has been going up.

  • And when you think about sort of Newmont Goldcorp's likely to be looking at sending some of their lower-quality assets out for sale also, timing really comes to my mind given the history of some good timing and bad timing at Barrick, actually, in the past.

  • Now it's probably a good time to try and buy certain assets, which are on sale, while selling some of the noncore stuff might be better to be prudent, to maximize shareholder value until the gold price is higher or I guess the sector starts to value those assets a little higher.

  • I just wanted sort of some idea on your perspective on that, as that's mine anyway.

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • So as you can imagine, I've got a very full inbox, so does Kevin, of people wanting to be considered in the asset sales.

  • And I guess it's also probably equaled by the number of bankers wanting to derive a fee from being able to sell those assets.

  • So there's no shortage of energy and support and potential buyers.

  • The one thing that I've learned -- we've learned is it's something that we're not going to do in a public forum.

  • So Barrick's got no bleeders.

  • We've got a filter process.

  • All the assets that we might consider to bring to account are contributing to the bottom line.

  • And so again, it's important that -- and as I said when we announced the deal, it's important.

  • One of my responsibilities, and Kevin's even more, is when we sell something, we don't diminish its component in the NAV of the business.

  • So we will do it in the fullness of time.

  • Some of the assets, we got a bit of work to do to make sure that we maximize the opportunity -- the sale value, and we're busy with that.

  • And others are more salable in the short-term.

  • And again, we're not sitting on our hands.

  • So that's what I can say on the asset side.

  • On the acquisition side, you say that, Mark, but it's not my experience.

  • And if you look at the recent goings-on the gold industry, there's been a lot of promises that haven't been met and disappointments in forecast production that just haven't been realized.

  • So the biggest risk is believing market consensus in trying to buy things.

  • And so it's like -- I think it was Harry Oppenheimer that said many great gold mining and other mining opportunities have been killed by a borehole.

  • And I can say from my own experience, many new business opportunities have been destroyed by a due diligence.

  • And so we have and we continue to do regular due diligences.

  • I think even in the short period of the last 7 weeks, we've done a couple.

  • And so we will continue to look at every opportunity that might merit a due diligence.

  • But that filter that you see up there is what's going to drive this business going forward.

  • And so we're not going to be seduced into making those irrational acquisitions that our industry is so very good at.

  • But at the same time, if you stumble and you've got quality, you'll find us at your front door.

  • Mark Magarian

  • Right.

  • So the focus being on great jurisdiction, high-grade large reserves and ultimately, when you talk about stumbling, the opportunity for you to bring in your expertise and provide quite significant synergies, I guess, on the underground front or something, is something that you're good at?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • And I think the exciting thing -- you guys must not underestimate this.

  • Everyone said I couldn't sort of leverage the Randgold way.

  • One of the things we've got is that we've got -- Catherine's team is really very capable of taking on more challenges.

  • And she's got the knowledge, the time and the capacity to do that.

  • Mark Hill is -- would like to have a few more quality assets, wouldn't you, Mark?

  • And then in Africa, you've seen how we've assimilated the Barrick assets.

  • We didn't employ one extra person.

  • In fact, we lost a few.

  • So that -- and this is the exciting part of that.

  • We've got some really exciting projects.

  • They're early stage in the El Indio belt, which we identified as a very prospective place.

  • We would like to expand our exploration initiative in Peru.

  • But the most exciting is another Goldrush.

  • And Barrick, out of all the companies in Nevada, one, has the ounces, quality, and it has the ground.

  • And so for me, that's -- finding another 15 million ounce plus 10-gram near-surface gold deposit myself is much more exciting than buying one.

  • So I've got no doubt.

  • We've got a lot of work to do with the asset base we've got.

  • It's a quality asset base.

  • We are not interested in boasting production.

  • What we want is profitability.

  • We've got a -- another exciting thing is we've got a very large EBITDA.

  • And we now understand how it's been whittled away to a net cash flow, which even then still supports our dividend strategy.

  • But again, we're going to be focused on converting that EBITDA into more positive cash flow, net positive cash flow.

  • And that is the -- that's the really -- the exciting part of this business.

  • So -- and we're going to be very focused on doing that.

  • Operator

  • The next question comes from Kip Keen of S&P Global.

  • Kip Keen - Research Analyst

  • Yes, I just -- I wondered if you might just give me some general comments on where you think you might be at Barrick in 5 years or so, looking out of the business from the -- in the context of the debt paybacks that have been made in the past 5 or so years, a bit of a different market.

  • So how are you looking out at the next 5 years?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • So one thing I can assure you is that over the next 5 years, we're going to deliver on our guidance, which will make us unique.

  • As you know, Randgold delivered on its guidance for 23 years.

  • Kip Keen - Research Analyst

  • Will you be with the company in 5 years?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • Sorry?

  • Kip Keen - Research Analyst

  • Will you be with the company in 5 years?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • Absolutely.

  • I said 5 years.

  • I said what it takes, but 5 years is at least.

  • I don't do a deal and then walk off.

  • Remember, I'm invested in this organization, personally, a lot.

  • The other thing is that our focus is about reducing debt and increasing dividends.

  • So that's the other focus.

  • If you want to know what's going to happen in the next 5 years, that's what's going to happen.

  • And so for the rest, I'm going to call on the Fifth.

  • And as I said, we'll tell you a better-detailed plan going forward.

  • But again, when you see us and the guidance today and you look at the cost profile, and as Catherine was saying to me when she presented this at the Investor Days last year, that range of cost actually -- the range improves.

  • It doesn't go up because as we build out the open pit -- new open pit resources in Nevada, we claw back on the total all-in sustaining but all costs are reduced.

  • And of course, you're already seeing in the granularity in Goldstrike and Cortez underground and in Turquoise Ridge increased production at lower cost.

  • And so we'll see that continue because we will realize some of the assets that are impeding our ability to deliver more profitability and fulfill our objective of dropping the debt and increasing the dividend.

  • Kip Keen - Research Analyst

  • There was some speculation in -- about interest in Pretium Resources.

  • Any thoughts on that particular mine?

  • I mean, you haven't mentioned a lot of Canadian assets in this call.

  • Just curious.

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • So one thing we are is underinvested in Canada, which is a real -- if you were an allocator of capital and you looked at Barrick, it's underinvested.

  • The problem is Canada hasn't got very many -- you buy assets because of 2 things: poorly run or well run.

  • There are not a lot of well-run assets in Canada, either.

  • So what we have got is a fully dedicated team looking at both opportunities and also looking to build an exploration sort of early-stage project identifier.

  • And we will -- it's early days still, but we are doing that.

  • Rob's team is working on building or expanding.

  • We've got quite a lot of skills that we can allocate to that team.

  • And on Pretium, right now the problem -- everyone knows what the problem in Pretium is.

  • It's been fast-tracked, and it's sitting at a position where it's like a roast duck, no dinner, 1 month is good and 1 month is bad.

  • And how do you try and get your head around what the real value of an asset like that is?

  • And that's the problem that the whole industry is facing when it looks at that asset.

  • So again, it would be unwise for us to do anything in a rushed or poorly considered way, whether it's Pretium or any other asset.

  • So it's going to take me a little while to become Canadian.

  • I'm working hard at it, to be able to understand the Canadian opportunities.

  • And again, we've approached a lot of the advisers in Canada who are much more okay with the portfolios that are available, and we'll continue to work with them.

  • Operator

  • There are no further questions from the phones at this time.

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • You got the microphone.

  • Unidentified Company Representative

  • We would ask that you announce yourself so that the people on the webcast know who's asking the question before your question.

  • Thank you.

  • Tanya M. Jakusconek - Analyst

  • Tanya Jakusconek from Scotiabank.

  • Mark, appreciate that you mentioned that we're going to get the life-of-mine plans later out and we are going to have the reserves.

  • But can you talk a little bit, as you look at Barrick's side of the life-of-mine plan, how they did it versus how you plan?

  • And the reserves, can you talk about what the differences are and where you see bringing those together?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • So it's very simple.

  • What we do is we look at the entire ore body.

  • We look at the traditional grade tonnage curves.

  • We look at the mine plan.

  • We balance it against infrastructure capital.

  • And we have an integrated team that will -- and we've already got those in place, all the skills to do that, and that's taken us 8 weeks.

  • And then we run the iterations until we get something that really works.

  • In the old -- and for me, good reasons, as I pointed out.

  • The last 3 years in Barrick, it's been we need this cash flow so we will adjust cutoff grade to deliver it.

  • And what happens with that is that you do deliver strong cash flow, which you've seen.

  • And I would just point out to everyone here, that decision is the first time in the mining -- in the gold mining industry where somebody has driven the assets to pay back the debt and not just issued a whole pile of paper.

  • So the privilege or the opportunity here is we've inherently got upside in the value per share because we don't have a dilution of that asset base.

  • And so -- but what it does do when you high-grade or you drive your cash flow based on a cutoff grade is that you erode your cost discipline.

  • So it's -- again, when things get a little wobbly, you just go to the next highest-grade pod.

  • So Turquoise Ridge has got -- if you drop the cutoff grade by 2 grams, I think you add just over 1 million ounces as you -- just on what we know now.

  • And so those are the opportunities that we will look at, and that's the basis on which we will be doing the plan.

  • And so -- and that's why it's impossible for us to do that.

  • We have a plan.

  • We've run all the Barrick assets, the legacy assets, at $1,000.

  • We know where the gaps are.

  • And what happens when you just run it, the current reserve at $1,000, it's not the optimum way.

  • But what it does do is it highlights what you have to do to lift the game, to lift the ore body -- the ore body's performance.

  • And so we've done all that.

  • We're very knowledgeable as far as our ore bodies go.

  • We all know them better than we knew them a few months ago.

  • And Rod and his team and we've got Grigore Simon who's -- so each region's got a dedicated executive oversight on mineral resource management, which integrates with both the long-term planners and the short-term planners.

  • And that's what we're doing, is reestablishing that.

  • In South America, it's a little more challenging because a lot of the -- because of the drive for cash flow, some of the forward-drilling programs have been neglected.

  • So there's a bit of catch-up to do.

  • It's the same as we identified in Turquoise Ridge, in that it's that just some infill drilling is going to improve our ability to be able to extract the ore body more efficiently.

  • So that's what driving our -- and that's the difference.

  • You okay with that?

  • Tanya M. Jakusconek - Analyst

  • Just to finish up with my question, just -- I did notice that Bulyanhulu had a new life-of-mine plan and that was optimized.

  • And I think KC moved their reserves to $1,200 from $1,100 gold price.

  • So is that an indication that $1,200 is sort of where we're going with the Randgold assets next year?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • So if you take Randgold assets and run them at $1,200, you destroy the NAV.

  • It's hard to go -- it makes no sense.

  • But what it does -- and so just to give everyone who don't know me, the long-term gold price is actually a cost-driven model.

  • So we look at input cost that drive a -- we use a standard gold model, we like to see about 30% -- and this particular model, we've had it for 25 years.

  • And we put in the input costs.

  • And it generates between 28 and 30 IRR.

  • And when gold price was $450, it used to do that.

  • And now at $1,000, it still does that.

  • But at $1,300, it gives you a higher return.

  • But just recently, we've seen a significant increase in input costs in the industry.

  • We've been on a decline in input cost since 2011.

  • And so my gut is that the new norm in our mine planning and allocation of capital will be between the $1,000 and the $1,200.

  • But we will do it properly.

  • And so if that's the case and the cost model is being driven by input cost, then you don't destroy value if you lift the Randgold metric a bit.

  • And there's definitely opportunity in the Barrick assets, both because of efficiencies and cost and change in mine plan -- mine methods.

  • But also, replanning at a lower gold price doesn't necessarily mean less ounces at all.

  • Anita Soni - Analyst

  • Anita Soni from CIBC.

  • My question is just with regards to the medium-term outlook at Cortez given this year's guidance and also saying that it will reverse in the next 2 to 3 years.

  • But will that -- those changes take place next year?

  • Or will it take...

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure.

  • I think if you pull the investor road -- documentation that Catherine gave last year at the Investor Day, the logic behind that model is largely intact.

  • And that was very clear how it showed the change and the impact on coming to the end at Cortez Hill and the impact of both the move to more efficient, open -- long-haul mining in the Cortez underground and the deep extension.

  • And so we'll -- anyway, that's -- I don't want to get caught up in trying to give any other answer, but that's not -- it's not -- again, the logic behind those plans are intact.

  • We plan to make them more efficient and more focused on long-term optimal delivery rather than a shorter-term cash flow promise.

  • Anita Soni - Analyst

  • Second question would be, are there any assets in particular that you see have been particularly neglected in terms of capital with the focus to cash flow management on the Barrick side?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • So Barrick's got a big capital demand, $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion this year.

  • It's my real focus.

  • Again, I've got no doubt that we already see that our approach to things, including the approach by the Barrick executive team, which is not the old executive -- and it's all very new, so it's difficult for me to talk about the old Barrick because there's no more old Barricks here.

  • But the young Barrick team and the new team in Barrick have the same view about capital allocation.

  • They were mindful of the importance of discipline on capital.

  • And what we do have is a much more focused approach to fit-for-purpose capital rather than over-engineering.

  • We do -- we run our projects ourselves.

  • We know the business really well.

  • We know the controls that are required.

  • We don't rely on -- and so another -- I haven't started explaining how we both, the Barrick team and the new team, cut external costs, external consultants and engineering advisory and all that other stuff.

  • It's all come to an end.

  • We're very much more capable of building mines cost effectively than any external engineering company.

  • That's for sure.

  • Andrew Kaip - MD of Mining ,Equity Research & Precious Metals Mining Analyst

  • Andrew Kaip with BMO Capital Markets.

  • Mark, how does the process flow sheet changes that took place with your view on Pueblo Viejo impact how you think about that project from a capital perspective?

  • And then also, from unlocking a very large inventory of resources at the project, you'll be milling, you'll be improving the quality of the tailings that you're disposing.

  • And does that benefit from a long-term tailings management perspective and the ability to unlock those resources?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, yes to all of that.

  • So the flow sheet at the moment and the scoping study was a combination of a reduction in volume and increase in gold feed through a flotation process route and then a leach oxidation, partial oxidation just on a leach pad.

  • And then you combine that so you have more gold with less feed.

  • And you increase the current processing capacity to -- by 50%, 8 million to 12 million tonnes a year.

  • What our team is -- and that's worked.

  • It's a proof of concept at work.

  • So the challenge is the leach on the heap because as you know, it's so hard to get a leach uniform and it takes up space.

  • And PV's got limited space.

  • It's one of the biggest open pit mines around, and it's short of actual space to put things.

  • In both Tongon and in Kibali, we have a float circuit and an ultrafine grind.

  • We are the leaders in ultrafine grinding, Randgold.

  • We've taken that technology to another level, and we actually can control the oxidation in that ultrafine grind because of the inherent heat generation in the process.

  • And then -- and so -- and at the same time, the team at PV have been doing vat leaching or tank leaching, which is also a more controlled environment.

  • And so if we do away with the leach pad, and we put it into a more controlled flow sheet, it's the same cost more or less.

  • It's much more efficient.

  • And our size of processing plants, both in DRC and in Mali, are what we require as far as processing capacity.

  • So we've got a perfect example proof of concept.

  • So the engineers from PV have just been up there to West Africa to have a look at our processing, and we're now busy refining that test work.

  • And then that will go towards a feasibility study.

  • And so we're pretty sure that -- and again -- in the new team we're agile.

  • So we don't go through these long phases of scoping prefeasibility.

  • When you get the thing to work, we will leapfrog a step.

  • And so we're pretty sure that we will bring that whole feasibility forward.

  • We've got time because it's 2022 we need it by.

  • Mark?

  • So 2022, we've got time to get it done properly.

  • And with that and we've got a number of options on the tailing storage because at PV, the storage is not just about tailings, it's about the potential asset drainage waste that you've got to impound.

  • And we've got a number of options on that.

  • And it's with that, that we free up the footprint and can push back and coalesce the 2 pits and unlock a whole lot of resource ounces into reserve.

  • So it's a very -- and it's -- the capital costs are -- we haven't got to reviewing them, but they're not going to be more than the current estimates for that project.

  • Andrew Kaip - MD of Mining ,Equity Research & Precious Metals Mining Analyst

  • And then one further question.

  • Just on Veladero, you're rebasing -- or you're discussing about a lower production for the next couple of years.

  • I'm just wondering how that project can -- or that mine can deal with the fixed cost of infrastructure that it has under a lower production setting.

  • And can you give us some insight on how you're going to be able to rebase that operation?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • The overheads and the inefficiencies in that organization are enormous because remember, it's a legacy -- it's a carryover from the Pascua-Lama project and no one rightsized it.

  • So Mark's already doing that.

  • There's a whole lot of opportunity to reduce.

  • And already, it's an efficient -- if you look at our process cost, dollars per tonne process, it's a low-cost producer.

  • And it can be substantially lower.

  • Greg Barnes - MD and Head of Mining Research

  • Greg Barnes from TD.

  • Mark, in your initial views of Nevada, and I know there's some talk earlier about, before you took over, about adding processing capacity in Nevada, optimizing the throughput you can do through various roasters.

  • And I guess, what was your view, your initial view there?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • So we are -- my original view is that that's appropriate.

  • And people have been talking about it for years and never done anything.

  • So we are -- we have made progress in that the TMA, the toll treating agreement (sic) [Toll Milling Agreement] with Twin Creeks for Turquoise Ridge is a first step in cooperation.

  • And as you know, Newmont's got a 25% share in Turquoise Ridge.

  • And that is a good demonstration of how you can do it.

  • And there's more opportunity to improve on that because of the ability to unlock more ounces because you now have joint ownership in an asset like that.

  • When you look at Barrick's forecast going forward, we own the most efficient roaster on this planet in gold mining down in Goldstrike.

  • And so that is an important -- it's size -- it just got better, so well done and so well run.

  • And so when you look at our forecast, we have capacity in that roaster going forward.

  • And we also have capacity in our autoclaves, the thiosulfate conversion.

  • And we're looking at reversing that to a standard autoclave to be able to treat material.

  • And then we are progressing with a -- the permitting process for a roaster in the gold -- in the Cortez region.

  • And again, with our -- we're going to be fully supporting Rob's team and expanding our -- and we've got some very exciting exploration opportunities in that area.

  • But at this stage, our current processing facilities are adequate for the reserves and resources that we've got.

  • Particularly though, the one that we can work harder on is the Turquoise Ridge, Twin Creeks partnership.

  • Greg Barnes - MD and Head of Mining Research

  • But you're reversing the thiosulfate autoclave.

  • Does that mean you're not...

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

  • We've got -- we believe the acid leach ore works very well in that autoclave.

  • The alkaline-rich feed doesn't.

  • And so we've got a lot of work that we're doing right now with our metallurgists and the process team at Goldstrike to see how do we get -- because we're not achieving the pilot test work recoveries when we put in alkaline-rich ore.

  • So again, the whole process is, can we do that?

  • And so we're doing a lot of test work on that because very soon, we start running out of the more acidic material.

  • And then one of the options is to go back to a traditional autoclave with a CIL circuit on it, which is there, and we can retrofit it.

  • Greg Barnes - MD and Head of Mining Research

  • So you wouldn't be processing the lower-grade stockpiles that are there now?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • No.

  • There's some stockpiles we'll process and some that we've got -- it doesn't make sense to process them through a flow sheet that delivers less than 50% recovery.

  • If we can get it above 50%, it works.

  • [You can view on the chart].

  • Catherine P. Raw - COO of North America

  • So it's a whole piece of work to say what are your options so you can still process those stockpiles because the alternative is they go through the roaster but you just prioritize it.

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • But you don't want to do that because you displace very high-grade ore.

  • Catherine P. Raw - COO of North America

  • Exactly.

  • you have to look at the alternatives.

  • And one of is try to get the carbon out before you're putting it through the autoclave.

  • There's lots of different alternatives.

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • Goldcorp has been doing that, floating the carbon off in front and reducing that.

  • So that's one of the options.

  • So there's a whole study group going on with our -- looking at our -- and then that's going back to the reserve driven or the geology driven, all our ore bodies, all our inventory, resource inventory and our various facilities and whether they are appropriate in the longer term to be able to process those reserves.

  • So we're looking at that right now.

  • And that'll be part of our revised longer-term plan.

  • Steven Howard Butler - MD of Equity Research & Gold Analyst

  • Mark, Steve Butler, GMP.

  • Goldrush and Fourmile, you talked about it being now only 0.5 kilometers to close the gap in the resource there.

  • So Rob's team has been working hard on drilling this thing off like crazy in a Goldrush sense.

  • So is there a project update we should expect this year or in the next year for this feasibility study or similar update?

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • So we'll continue to update, but I really want to get away from trying to promise you ounces.

  • I mean, how many ounces would you like?

  • I can promise you they're there today.

  • And this is about getting a full feasibility-level job done.

  • And the first thing is we're busy with permitting.

  • We're busy with the infrastructure.

  • We're relooking at the whole infrastructure.

  • We need to get some more test work done.

  • And the Fourmile -- so this is a classic sort of disseminated Carlin alteration on the Goldrush side.

  • And then you go into this very silicified classic Carlin breaches with these eye-watering grades.

  • And as you know, those -- that style, it's not continuous.

  • So you'll get loads of very high-grade mineralization.

  • But the exciting thing is the competency of that rock will allow for bulk mining, underground bulk mining, which is really exciting.

  • Now that's just following the recent success in the Fourmile side.

  • And so we are -- right now, the team is relooking at that, relooking at our permitting process, what are the gaps and if there any because it's been fairly comprehensively done.

  • And we're relooking at the ore handling strategy.

  • There was going to be rails into the declines.

  • We're a little more modern that than we'd like.

  • So we'll do the trade-offs on other ore handling opportunities and then how do we manage it at the decline head and how we tie into the Goldstrike infrastructure and then also access because now you've got a bigger target, how do you get into Fourmile without having through all -- to bottleneck it through the declines.

  • So there's a lot of work to be done.

  • But it's not complicated work.

  • We've got all the skills, and as I said, we've now got a dedicated manager of that project.

  • And again, that's something that, through this year, I'm pretty sure you'll see a much more optimized plan for both Goldrush and Fourmile.

  • And I'm convinced we'll prove that there's a geological connection between the 2. All right.

  • Kerry Smith - VP & Senior Mining Analyst

  • It's Kerry Smith of Haywood.

  • Graham, were all the redundancy costs expensed in Q4?

  • Or should we expect some more costs are going to run through 2019 numbers?

  • Graham Patrick Shuttleworth - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Substantially all of those came through in quarter 4. There may be some small amounts coming through in the first quarter, but the bulk was done in 2018.

  • Kerry Smith - VP & Senior Mining Analyst

  • Okay.

  • And there's been some sensitivity around tailings dams recently with what's happening in Brazil.

  • PV is going to have quite a large dam at the end of the day.

  • What have you done there to prep?

  • Pueblo Viejo will have quite a large dam.

  • What have you done there to sort of satisfy yourself that there's not any issues that could crop up over the course of time?

  • It's quite a wet environment.

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • So we are -- I'm paranoid about tailings dams.

  • I come from Harmony Gold mine and Merriespruit.

  • You're old enough to remember that.

  • We have done a full audit of our tailings dams, and we're currently -- and again, Barrick's and Randgold's conventions for management of tailings dams are aligned and are -- unlike a lot of the industry, we completely believe in external oversight in both the companies.

  • And Barrick has an extra independent check in their management of their tailings dam in that they have an oversight committee of 2 experts.

  • And those experts have -- are experts in that field, and they have -- one of the criteria is that they have had -- they have to have never had any ties to Barrick in any way.

  • And so we are -- we will reinforce that.

  • But we have responsible engineers for each tailings dam that are internal.

  • We have an external -- we have a corporate review on the tailings dam, and we have corporate experts that are responsible for that.

  • We have an external review with an external appointed engineer.

  • And we have our standards on -- particularly on upstream dams, making sure that we manage and understand the phreatic pressure through -- and borehole controls.

  • But in the -- we look at the plume and also the actual integrity of the barriers and impoundment walls.

  • And then -- and what we have done just recently is that we've rolled that out or we're in the process of rolling that out to our joint venture partners to encourage them to ensure that they comply with our policies.

  • Greg, do you want to comment?

  • Greg A.P. Walker - Head of Operations & Technical Excellence of North America

  • The government -- the Dominican government also has a very active administration and regulatory body that administers dams and tailings in particular.

  • So they do regular checks there on a monthly basis and make sure that we're up to the standards at PV in particular.

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • And I think for us, in West Africa, you've got a negative water balance.

  • So that's much easier to manage.

  • But we have a lot of experience in positive water balances, which is a lot of Barrick's assets -- legacy Barrick assets are in positive water balance areas, again.

  • And so that requires a completely different level of oversight than when you've got a negative water balance.

  • Tanya M. Jakusconek - Analyst

  • I just have a quick follow-up question for Graham just on the accounting.

  • You still have to put the purchase price accounting for the transaction, about $3.2 billion that's coming, I think, in Q1.

  • So the guidance for depreciation is without it.

  • So can we assume that a lot of it will get allocated to property and plant and equipment?

  • Graham Patrick Shuttleworth - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Yes.

  • So as you point out, we are doing that work at the moment.

  • And we expect to be able to conclude it in this first quarter, albeit that we have the whole year to complete that from an IFRS point of view.

  • Until the work is done, I can't really give you that clarity.

  • But in all likelihood, there will be a split between assets and goodwill.

  • But we're busy with that work and we'll let you know when it's done.

  • Dennis Mark Bristow - President, CEO & Director

  • All right.

  • So thank you, everyone, for coming.

  • Again, hopefully, you found it helpful.

  • We are going to make this a regular affair.

  • We also plan to take these results presentations back to the operations, at least as I did in Randgold, once a year or so.

  • But I would also encourage you please to -- if you've got any comments, advice, suggestions, let our team know.

  • And we'll work -- the idea is to give you what you need to be able to ensure that our owners of this company are properly informed.

  • So thanks for coming.

  • And I assume there's a -- normally, we offer a glass of wine or something.

  • So what are we doing this time?

  • Coffee and tea.

  • Sorry about that.

  • We'll work on that.

  • Thanks for coming, everyone.

  • Thanks.

  • Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call.

  • Should you have additional questions, please contact Barrick Investor Relations department.

  • You may now disconnect your lines.

  • Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.